Assessment of effectiveness of geologic isolation systems. Geologic factors in the isolation of nuclear waste: evaluation of long-term geomorphic processes and catastrophic events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mara, S.J.

1980-03-01

SRI International has projected the rate, duration, and magnitude of geomorphic processes and events in the Southwest and Gulf Coast over the next million years. This information will be used by the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) as input to a computer model, which will be used to simulate possible release scenarios and the consequences of the release of nuclear waste from geologic containment. The estimates in this report, although based on best scientific judgment, are subject to considerable uncertainty. An evaluation of the Quaternary history of the two study areas revealed that each had undergone geomorphic change in the last one million years. Catastrophic events were evaluated in order to determine their significance to the simulation model. Given available data, catastrophic floods are not expected to occur in the two study areas. Catastrophic landslides may occur in the Southwest, but because the duration of the event is brief and the amount of material moved is small in comparison to regional denudation, such events need not be included in the simulation model. Ashfalls, however, could result in removal of vegetation from the landscape, thereby causing significant increases in erosion rates. Because the estimates developed during this study may not be applicable to specific sites, general equations were presented as a first step in refining the analysis. These equations identify the general relationships among the important variables and suggest those areas of concern for which further data are required. If the current model indicates that geomorphic processes (taken together with other geologic changes) may ultimately affect the geologic containment of nuclear waste, further research may be necessary to refine this analysis for application to specific sites

Direct catastrophic injury in sports.

Science.gov (United States)

Boden, Barry P

2005-11-01

Catastrophic sports injuries are rare but tragic events. Direct (traumatic) catastrophic injury results from participating in the skills of a sport, such as a collision in football. Football is associated with the greatest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all major team sports in the United States. Pole vaulting, gymnastics, ice hockey, and football have the highest incidence of direct catastrophic injuries for sports in which males participate. In most sports, the rate of catastrophic injury is higher at the collegiate than at the high school level. Cheerleading is associated with the highest number of direct catastrophic injuries for all sports in which females participate. Indirect (nontraumatic) injury is caused by systemic failure as a result of exertion while participating in a sport. Cardiovascular conditions, heat illness, exertional hyponatremia, and dehydration can cause indirect catastrophic injury. Understanding the common mechanisms of injury and prevention strategies for direct catastrophic injuries is critical in caring for athletes.

Simulation of the catastrophic floods caused by extreme rainfall events - Uh River basin case study

OpenAIRE

Pekárová, Pavla; Halmová, Dana; Mitková, Veronika

2005-01-01

The extreme rainfall events in Central and East Europe on August 2002 rise the question, how other basins would respond on such rainfall situations. Such theorisation helps us to arrange in advance the necessary activity in the basin to reduce the consequence of the assumed disaster. The aim of the study is to recognise a reaction of the Uh River basin (Slovakia, Ukraine) to the simulated catastrophic rainfall events from August 2002. Two precipitation scenarios, sc1 and sc2, were created. Th...

Catastrophic event modeling. [lithium thionyl chloride batteries

Science.gov (United States)

Frank, H. A.

1981-01-01

A mathematical model for the catastrophic failures (venting or explosion of the cell) in lithium thionyl chloride batteries is presented. The phenomenology of the various processes leading to cell failure is reviewed.

Quantum catastrophe of slow light

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2001-01-01

Catastrophes are at the heart of many fascinating optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, is a ray catastrophe where light rays become infinitely intense. The wave nature of light resolves the infinities of ray catastrophes while drawing delicate interference patterns such as the supernumerary arcs of the rainbow. Black holes cause wave singularities. Waves oscillate with infinitely small wave lengths at the event horizon where time stands still. The quantum nature of light avoids this h...

Empirical Bayes Credibility Models for Economic Catastrophic Losses by Regions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jindrová Pavla

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophic events affect various regions of the world with increasing frequency and intensity. The number of catastrophic events and the amount of economic losses is varying in different world regions. Part of these losses is covered by insurance. Catastrophe events in last years are associated with increases in premiums for some lines of business. The article focus on estimating the amount of net premiums that would be needed to cover the total or insured catastrophic losses in different world regions using Bühlmann and Bühlmann-Straub empirical credibility models based on data from Sigma Swiss Re 2010-2016. The empirical credibility models have been developed to estimate insurance premiums for short term insurance contracts using two ingredients: past data from the risk itself and collateral data from other sources considered to be relevant. In this article we deal with application of these models based on the real data about number of catastrophic events and about the total economic and insured catastrophe losses in seven regions of the world in time period 2009-2015. Estimated credible premiums by world regions provide information how much money in the monitored regions will be need to cover total and insured catastrophic losses in next year.

Insurance and catastrophic events: can we expect de facto limits on liability recoveries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Solomon, K.A.; Whipple, C.; Okrent, D.

1978-01-01

The purpose of this study is to take an overview of large technological systems in society to ascertain the prevalence, if any, of situations that can lead to catastrophic effects where the resultant liabilities far exceed the insurances or assets subject to suit in court, thereby imposing de facto limits on liability recoveries. In part, interest in this topic is spurred by the continuing discussion and controversy over the Price-Anderson Act which requires operators of nuclear plants to waive certain defenses and which limits the combined liability of the operator and the government to an amount less than the maximum potential public cost of a major nuclear reactor accident. A variety of technological events could result in assignable liabilities up to $25 billion, or more, depending on the value of life. These postulated events include: (1) the crash of a large aircraft into a crowded sports facility (an estimated $20.3 billion liability); (2) an explosion and subsequent dispersion of a chemical (such as chlorine or LNG) into a population center from a large manufacturing, storage, or transport facility (estimated $25.5 billion liability); (3) a massive nuclear power plant accident and the subsequent dispersal of large quantities of radioactive material to a large downwind population center ($25 billion liability); (4) the collision of two ships, such as a large LNG tanker and a large passenger liner, resulting in the deaths of all passengers on board ($5.5 billion liability); and (5) collapse of a large building in an earthquake, known by the owners to be seismically deficient and no steps having been taken to warn occupants or to remedy the situation (major deficiencies). All these events are found to involve potential liability far exceeding the available resources, whether they be insurance, corporation assets, or government revenues

The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brown, J.C.; Lambert, M.I.; Verhagen, E.A.L.M.; Readhead, C.; van Mechelen, W.; Viljoen, W.

2013-01-01

Objectives: To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Design: Prospective. Setting: The South African

PARAMETRIC INSURANCE COVER FOR NATURAL CATASTROPHE RISKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Serghei Margulescu

2013-11-01

Full Text Available With economic losses of over USD 370 bn caused by 325 catastrophic events, 2011 ranks as the worst ever year in terms of costs to society due to natural catastrophes and man-made disasters. Inthe same time, 2011 is the second most expensive year in the history for the insurance industry, with insured losses from catastrophic events amounting to USD 116 bn. Both the high level of damages and insured losses, as well as the unprecedented gap between the two values, made insurers and reinsurers worldwide to understand that some risks had so far been underestimated and they have to be better integrated in the catastrophes modelling.On the other hand, governments have to protect themselves against the financial impact of natural catastrophes and new forms of cooperation between the public and private sectors can help countries finance disaster risks. Viewed in a country’s wider risk management context, the purchase of parametric insurance cover, which transfers natural catastrophe risk to the private sector using an index- based trigger, is a necessary shift towards a pre-emptive risk management strategy. This kind of approach can be pursued by central governments or at the level of provincial or municipal governments, and a number of case studies included in the publication “Closing the financial gap” by Swiss Re (2011 illustrates how new forms of parametric insurance can help countries finance disaster risks.

'Performative narrativity': Palestinian identity and the performance of catastrophe

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Saloul, I.

2008-01-01

The day Israel annually celebrates as its "Day of Independence" Palestinians commemorate as their day of catastrophe (al-nakba). To most Palestinians, the catastrophic loss of Palestine in 1948 represents the climactic formative event of their lives. In the aftermath of this loss, the Palestinian

Human reaction and risk perception to catastrophic events: a psycho-social and cultural perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barthakur, M.

1998-01-01

Catastrophes of various kinds occur worldwide inflicting major human suffering, more so in the less privileged regions of the world. Human beings react differently to different traumatic situations and to the threat of an event in spite of man common underlying factors. Psychological reactions to catastrophic natural events like flooding on the perception of risk of flooding across various communities thus becomes an interesting study. Economic situation, lack of knowledge and resources are assumed to give a totally different perspective to reactions and perception of risk and its interpretation specially in an underprivileged country like India, compared to other developed countries. For the proposed session, the results of a study carried out in India will be presented. This includes reactions and responses of individuals and general public affected by flooding and their perceptions of risk of flooding. The study also focuses on a comparison between the people affected and at risk of flooding. Socio-cultural values, religion and superstitions, common beliefs and expectations from authorities will be studied as underlying variables, to what extent they might have an impact on the behavioral pattern of an individual in a situation and the perception of oncoming risk. A sizeable number of the Indian population resides in areas, which are generally affected by flooding or highly prone to flooding. Could perceptions vary among individuals within the society or is it simply poverty and unaffordability that drive these people info such hazardous areas? Lack of consciousness may seem to be an important variable, but what really matters and needs to be looked into is how threatened they actually feel. (author)

Pricing the property claim service (PCS) catastrophe insurance options using gamma distribution

Science.gov (United States)

Noviyanti, Lienda; Soleh, Achmad Zanbar; Setyanto, Gatot R.

2017-03-01

The catastrophic events like earthquakes, hurricanes or flooding are characteristics for some areas, a properly calculated annual premium would be closely as high as the loss insured. From an actuarial perspective, such events constitute the risk that are not insurable. On the other hand people living in such areas need protection. In order to securitize the catastrophe risk, futures or options based on a loss index could be considered. Chicago Board of Trade launched a new class of catastrophe insurance options based on new indices provided by Property Claim Services (PCS). The PCS-option is based on the Property Claim Service Index (PCS-Index). The index are used to determine and payout in writing index-based insurance derivatives. The objective of this paper is to price PCS Catastrophe Insurance Option based on PCS Catastrophe index. Gamma Distribution is used to estimate PCS Catastrophe index distribution.

Socio-economic consequences of Chernobyl catastrophe. Social protection of the citizens, affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kholosha, V.; Kovalchuk, V.

2003-01-01

The accident on Chernobyl NPP has affected the destiny of 35 million people in Ukraine. The social protection of the population affected during Chernobyl catastrophe is founded on the Law of Ukraine 'About the status and social protection of citizens affected owing to Chernobyl catastrophe' (see further - 'Law'), and is the principal direction of activity and the subject of the special state attention to total complex of problems bound to Chernobyl catastrophe consequences elimination. The current legislation stipulates partial compensation of material losses connected with resettlement of the affected population. According to the current legislation in Ukraine about 50 kinds of aid, privileges and compensations are submitted to the affected citizens

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Motoh, Tsujimura [Graduate School of Economics, Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmochi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto 606-8501 (Japan)

2004-05-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource.

Optimal natural resources management under uncertainty with catastrophic risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Motoh, Tsujimura

2004-01-01

We examine an optimal natural resources management problem under uncertainty with catastrophic risk and investigate the optimal rate of use of a natural resource. For this purpose, we use stochastic control theory. We assume that, until a catastrophic event occurs, the stock of the natural resource is governed by a stochastic differential equation. We describe the catastrophic phenomenon as a Poisson process. From this analysis, we show the optimal rate of use of the natural resource in explicit form. Furthermore, we present comparative static results for the optimal rate of use of the natural resource

Catastrophizing in Patients with Burning Mouth Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana ANDABAK ROGULJ

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Burning mouth syndrome (BMS is an idiopathic painful condition which manifests with burning sensations in the oral cavity in patients with clinically normal oral mucosa and without any local and/or systemic causative factor. Catastrophizing is defined as an exaggerated negative orientation toward pain stimuli and pain experience. The aim of this study was to examine the association between catastrophizing and clinical parameters of BMS, and to examine the association between catastrophizing and the quality of life in patients with BMS. Materials and methods: Anonymous questionnaire consisting of 3 parts (demographic and clinical data with 100 mm visual analogue scale (VAS, Croatian version of the Oral Health Impact Profile (OHIP-14 scale and Croatian version of the Pain Catastrophizing scale (PC, was distributed to 30 patients diagnosed with BMS. Results: A higher level of catastrophizing was clinically significant in 30% of the patients. Total catastrophizing score and all three subcomponents of catastrophizing significantly correlated with the intensity of symptoms, but did not correlate with the duration of symptoms. Gender and previous treatment did not affect the catastrophizing. Conclusion: Obtaining the information about catastrophizing could help a clinician to identify patients with negative behavioural patterns. Additional psychological intervention in these individuals could reduce/eliminate negative cognitive factors and improve coping with chronic painful condition such as BMS.

The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries (including cardiac events) in South Africa from 2008 to 2011: a cohort study

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, James Craig; Lambert, Mike I; Verhagen, Evert; Readhead, Clint; van Mechelen, Willem; Viljoen, Wayne

2013-01-01

Objectives To establish an accurate and comprehensive injury incidence registry of all rugby union-related catastrophic events in South Africa between 2008 and 2011. An additional aim was to investigate correlates associated with these injuries. Design Prospective. Setting The South African amateur and professional rugby-playing population. Participants An estimated 529 483 Junior and 121 663 Senior rugby union (‘rugby’) players (population at risk). Outcome measures Annual average incidences of rugby-related catastrophic injuries by type (cardiac events, traumatic brain and acute spinal cord injuries (ASCIs)) and outcome (full recoveries—fatalities). Playing level (junior and senior levels), position and event (phase of play) were also assessed. Results The average annual incidence of ASCIs and Traumatic Brain Injuries combined was 2.00 per 100 000 players (95% CI 0.91 to 3.08) from 2008 to 2011. The incidence of ASCIs with permanent outcomes was significantly higher at the Senior level (4.52 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0.74 to 8.30) than the Junior level (0.24 per 100 000 players, 95% CI 0 to 0.65) during this period. The hooker position was associated with 46% (n=12 of 26) of all permanent ASCI outcomes, the majority of which (83%) occurred during the scrum phase of play. Conclusions The incidence of rugby-related catastrophic injuries in South Africa between 2008 and 2011 is comparable to that of other countries and to most other collision sports. The higher incidence rate of permanent ASCIs at the Senior level could be related to the different law variations or characteristics (eg, less regular training) compared with the Junior level. The hooker and scrum were associated with high proportions of permanent ASCIs. The BokSmart injury prevention programme should focus efforts on these areas (Senior level, hooker and scrum) and use this study as a reference point for the evaluation of the effectiveness of the programme. PMID:23447464

Impact of a natural catastrophe on life events.

Science.gov (United States)

Janney, J G; Masuda, M; Holmes, T H

1977-06-01

A major earthquake struck Peru in May 1970. This post-quake study compares the impact of this natural catastrophe on the residents of two different cities; one was 90 percent levelled by the quake and one was untouched. A relatively homogeneous population of Peruvians obtained from the two cities completed two paper-and-pencil tests, the Social Readjustment Rating Questionnaire (SRRQ) and the Schedule of Recent Experience (SRE). Both questionnaires were adapted from the SRRQ which had been translated for studies in Spain and EL Salvador. The data from the SRRQ generated two Peruvian Social Readjustment Rating Scales (SRRS), one for each of the cities studied. The differences in the two scales were striking. The lowest intra-cultural correlation yet observed on four studies was obtained. Comparison with a United States population yielded no significant relationships (rs = 0.15), the first time this has occurred in nine intercultural studies. A comparison of the profile of items generated by their subjective magnitude estimations indicated striking qualitative and quantitative differences between the two populations. The SRE generated frequency of occurrence of items and life change magnitudes in five proscribed time intervals. Significant differences in these two quantitative indices (including the health change items) were observed in the two populations in some of the time intervals and not in others. The data formulated suggest that the occurrence of a natural catastrophe--an earthquake which devastated one city--accounted for much of the difference observed between the populations of the two cities.

Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stein, Steven L.; Lesperance, Ann M.; Upton, Jaki F.

2010-02-01

On October 9, 2008, federal, state and local policy makers, emergency managers, and medical and public health officials convened in Seattle, Washington, for a workshop on Addressing the Federal-State-Local Interface Issues During a Catastrophic Event Such as an Anthrax Attack. The day-long symposium was aimed at generating a dialogue about recovery and restoration through a discussion of the associated challenges that impact entire communities, including people, infrastructure, and critical systems. The Principal Federal Official (PFO) provided an overview of the role of the PFO in a catastrophic event. A high-level summary of an anthrax scenario was presented. The remainder of the day was focused on interactive discussions among federal, state and local emergency management experts in the areas of: • Decision-making, prioritization, and command and control • Public health/medical services • Community resiliency and continuity of government. Key topics and issues that resulted from discussions included: • Local representation in the Joint Field Office (JFO) • JFO transition to the Long-Term Recovery Office • Process for prioritization of needs • Process for regional coordination • Prioritization - process and federal/military intervention • Allocation of limited resources • Re-entry decision and consistency • Importance of maintaining a healthy hospital system • Need for a process to establish a consensus on when it is safe to re-enter. This needs to be across all jurisdictions including the military. • Insurance coverage for both private businesses and individuals • Interaction between the government and industry. The symposium was sponsored by the Interagency Biological Restoration Demonstration, a collaborative regional program jointly funded by the U.S. Department of Homeland Security and the U.S. Department of Defense. To aid the program’s efforts and inform the development of blueprint for recovery from a biological incident

Catastrophic risk : Social influences on insurance decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krawczyk, Michal; Trautmann, Stefan; van de Kuilen, Gijs

We study behavioral patterns of insurance demand for low-probability large-loss events (catastrophic losses). Individual patterns of belief formation and risk attitude that were suggested in the behavioral decisions literature emerge robustly in the current set of insurance choices. However, social

The 1985 Nevado del Ruiz volcano catastrophe: anatomy and retrospection

Science.gov (United States)

Voight, Barry

1990-12-01

This paper seeks to analyze in an objective way the circumstances and events that contributed to the 1985 Nevado del Ruiz catastrophe, in order to provide useful guidelines for future emergencies. The paper is organized into two principal parts. In the first part, an Anatomy of the catastrophe is developed as a step-by-step chronicle of events and actions taken by individuals and organizations during the period November 1984 through November 1985. This chronicle provides the essential background for the crucial events of November 13. This year-long period is broken down further to emphasize important chapters: the gradual awareness of the awakening of the volcano; a long period of institutional skepticism reflecting an absence of credibility; the closure of the credibility gap with the September 11 phreatic eruption, followed by an intensive effort to gird for the worst; and a detailed account of the day of reckoning. The second part of the paper, Retrospection, examines the numerous complicated factors that influenced the catastrophic outcome, and attempts to cull a few "lessons from Armero" in order to avoid similar occurrences in the future. In a nutshell, the government on the whole acted responsibly but was not willing to bear the economic or political costs of early evacuation or a false alarm. Science accurately foresaw the hazards but was insufficiently precise to render reliable warning of the crucial event at the last possible minute. Catastrophe was therefore a calculated risk, and this combination - the limitations of prediction/detection, the refusal to bear a false alarm and the lack of will to act on the uncertain information available - provided its immediate and most obvious causes. But because the crucial event occurred just two days before the Armero emergency management plan was to be critically examined and improved, the numerous circumstances which delayed progress of emergency management over the previous year also may be said to have

Catastrophic avalanches and methods of their control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. A. Volodicheva

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Definition of such phenomenon as “catastrophic avalanche” is presented in this arti-cle. Several situations with releases of catastrophic avalanches in mountains of Caucasus, Alps, and Central Asia are investigated. Materials of snow-avalanche ob-servations performed since 1960s at the Elbrus station of the Lomonosov Moscow State University (Central Caucasus were used for this work. Complex-valued measures of engineering protection demonstrating different efficiencies are consid-ered.

Catastrophes control problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Velichenko, V.V.

1994-01-01

The problem of catastrophe control is discussed. Catastrophe control aims to withdraw responsible engineering constructions out of the catastrophe. The mathematical framework of catastrophes control systems is constructed. It determines the principles of systems filling by the concrete physical contents and, simultaneously, permits to employ modern control methods for the synthesis of optimal withdrawal strategy for protected objects

Morphological response of a barrier island system on a catastrophic event

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fruergaard, Mikkel; Kroon, Aart

2016-01-01

storms are capable of moving large amounts of sediments over relatively short time-periods and can create barrier shoals, whereas moderate storms mostly rework the shoal or barrier and create more local erosion and/or landward migration. Catastrophic storms substantially influence long-term and large...

Geochemical and sedimentological signature of catastrophic saltwater inundations (tsunami), New Zealand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chague-Goff, C.; Goff, J.R.

1999-01-01

Three tidal marshes in Able Tasman National Par, New Zealand, were studied using geochemical, sedimentological and radiometric dating techniques. Charcoal and plant material samples were taken from one core in each inlet for 14 C analysis. radiocarbon ages were converted to dendrocalibrated years . All samples produced a terrestrial 13 C signal. Near surface samples were date d by measuring 137 Cs. A 1700 year record of catastrophic saltwater inundations (CSI) events (Tsunami) was produced. Up to four such events were identified, with ruptures of one or more of the Wellington, Wairarapa and Alpine Faults being the most likely tsunamigenic source. CSI signatures include: peaks in Fe and/or S, a peak in fines and contemporaneous or delayed peaks in organic content and/or loss on ignition (LOI). Geochemical data in association with grain size analyses proved to be a valuable tool in the interpretation of these events

Pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: descriptive analysis of 45 patients from the "CAPS Registry".

Science.gov (United States)

Berman, Horacio; Rodríguez-Pintó, Ignasi; Cervera, Ricard; Gregory, Simone; de Meis, Ernesto; Rodrigues, Carlos Ewerton Maia; Aikawa, Nádia Emi; de Carvalho, Jozélio Freire; Springer, Janusz; Niedzwiecki, Maciej; Espinosa, Gerard

2014-02-01

Given the lack of information about catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric patients, the objective of the current study was to describe the clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome of pediatric patients with catastrophic APS and compare them with the adult patients with catastrophic APS. We identified patients who were under 18years of age at time of catastrophic APS diagnosis included in the international registry of patients with catastrophic APS (CAPS Registry). Their main demographic and clinical characteristics, laboratory features, treatment, and outcome were described and compared with those of adult patients with catastrophic APS. From the 446 patients included in the CAPS Registry as of May 2013, 45 (10.3%) patients developed 46 catastrophic events before 18years of age (one patient presented two episodes). Overall, 32 (71.1%) patients were female and the mean age was 11.5±4.6years (range, 3months-18years). A total of 31 (68.9%) patients suffered from primary APS and 13 (28.9%) from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). The main differences between the two groups of patients were the higher prevalence of infections as precipitating factor for catastrophic event in the pediatric population (60.9% versus 26.8% in the adult population, p<0.001) and of peripheral vessel thrombosis (52.2% versus 34.3%, p=0.017). In addition, catastrophic APS was the first manifestation of APS more frequently in pediatric patients (86.6% versus 45.2%, p<0.001). Interestingly, pediatric patients showed a trend of lower mortality, although the difference was not statistically significant (26.1% versus 40.2%; odds ratio, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 0.96-3.79; p=0.063). No differences were found neither in the laboratory features nor in the isolated or combination treatments between groups. Catastrophic APS in pediatric patients is a rare disease. There are minimal differences in the clinical and laboratory features, treatment, and

Signatures of natural catastrophic events and anthropogenic impact in an estuarine environment, New Zealand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chague-Goff, C.; Nichol, S.L.; Jenkinson, A.V.; Heijnis, H.

2000-01-01

The sedimentary record of known natural catastrophic events and human activity in the Ahuriri Estuary, Hawke's Bay, is assessed using sedimentological, chemical and geochronological techniques. Evidence for the 1931 Hawke's Bay earthquake, which resulted in an uplift of one to two metres in the Napier area, is given by a change from silt- to sand-dominated sediment in the lower estuary, which is consistent with a shift toward higher energy depositional conditions following uplift. Post-European settlement impact is mainly restricted to the lower estuary, where increased concentrations of Zn, Cr, Pb and Cu are attributed to industrial discharges. Chemical data (Cl and S) suggest a change in the depositional environment in the upper estuary due to increased freshwater influx and/or decrease in seawater influence. Dating by 210 Pb suggests that this occurred around the middle of the 19th century, and might be attributed to river flooding at that time. 50 refs., 9 figs

Tackling The Global Challenge: Humanitarian Catastrophes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth V. Iserson

2014-03-01

Full Text Available “Humanitarian catastrophes,” conflicts and calamities generating both widespread human suffering and destructive events, require a wide range of emergency resources. This paper answers a number of questions that humanitarian catastrophes generate: Why and how do the most-developed countries—those with the resources, capabilities, and willingness to help—intervene in specific types of disasters? What ethical and legal guidelines shape our interventions? How well do we achieve our goals? It then suggests a number of changes to improve humanitarian responses, including better NGO-government cooperation, increased research on the best disaster response methods, clarification of the criteria and roles for humanitarian (military interventions, and development of post-2015 Millennium Development Goals with more accurate progress measures. [West J Emerg Med. 2014;15(2:231–240.

On sociological catastrophe analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clausen, L.

1974-01-01

The present paper deals with standard terms of sociological catastrophe theory hitherto existing, collective behaviour during the catastrophe, and consequences for the empiric catastrophe sociology. (RW) [de

Death, Catastrophe, and the Significance of Tragedy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer Ballengee

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This NANO note will examine the tension between representation, memorial, and the catastrophe of death that emerges in the space of tragedy, as the problem arises in two quite different works: Oedipus at Colonus, a fairly typical fifth-century Greek tragedy, and Falling Man, Don DeLillo’s novel that, in its attempt to address the events of 9/11, reflects in form and subject matter many of Aristotle’s terms of tragic representation. It is not the intent of this note to engage with the recent proliferation of work in “performance theory.” Rather than being concerned with an imagined exchange between audience and actor, this study examines how the supplementary relationship of gesture and speech in tragedy disrupts the public/private distinction, and how this articulation effects and enables the public memorialization of death. Thus, this paper will consider the representation of death as an event whose catastrophic, and somewhat mysterious, collision of the public and the private lends it its tragic significance.

Catastrophic Outcomes in Free Tissue Transfer: A Six-Year Review of the NSQIP Database

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David W. Grant

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Background. No studies report robust data on the national incidence and risk factors associated with catastrophic medical outcomes following free tissue transfer. Methods. The American College of Surgeons (ACS multicenter, prospective National Surgical Quality Improvement Program (NSQIP database was used to identify patients who underwent free tissue transfer between 2006 and 2011. Multivariable logistic regression was used for statistical analysis. Results. Over the 6-year study period 2,349 patients in the NSQIP database underwent a free tissue transfer procedure. One hundred and twenty-two patients had at least one catastrophic medical outcome (5.2%. These 122 patients had 151 catastrophic medical outcomes, including 93 postoperative respiratory failure events (4.0%, 14 pulmonary emboli (0.6%, 13 septic shock events (0.5%, 12 myocardial infarctions (0.5%, 6 cardiac arrests (0.3%, 4 strokes (0.2%, 1 coma (0.0%, and 8 deaths (0.3%. Total length of hospital stay was on average 14.7 days longer for patients who suffered a catastrophic medical complication (P<0.001. Independent risk factors were identified. Conclusions. Free tissue transfer is a proven and safe technique. Catastrophic medical complications were infrequent but added significantly to length of hospital stay and patient morbidity.

A model of pathways to artificial superintelligence catastrophe for risk and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Barrett, Anthony M.; Baum, Seth D.

2017-03-01

An artificial superintelligence (ASI) is an artificial intelligence that is significantly more intelligent than humans in all respects. Whilst ASI does not currently exist, some scholars propose that it could be created sometime in the future, and furthermore that its creation could cause a severe global catastrophe, possibly even resulting in human extinction. Given the high stakes, it is important to analyze ASI risk and factor the risk into decisions related to ASI research and development. This paper presents a graphical model of major pathways to ASI catastrophe, focusing on ASI created via recursive self-improvement. The model uses the established risk and decision analysis modelling paradigms of fault trees and influence diagrams in order to depict combinations of events and conditions that could lead to AI catastrophe, as well as intervention options that could decrease risks. The events and conditions include select aspects of the ASI itself as well as the human process of ASI research, development and management. Model structure is derived from published literature on ASI risk. The model offers a foundation for rigorous quantitative evaluation and decision-making on the long-term risk of ASI catastrophe.

Seizing Catastrophes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kublitz, Anja

2013-01-01

to a distant past but takes place in the present. They use the term Nakba not only to refer to the catastrophe of 1948 but also to designate current catastrophes, such as the Danish Muhammad cartoons affair in 2005 and the Israeli invasion of Gaza in 2008. Through an analysis of the 60th commemoration...

Climate catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Budyko, Mikhail

1999-05-01

Climate catastrophes, which many times occurred in the geological past, caused the extinction of large or small populations of animals and plants. Changes in the terrestrial and marine biota caused by the catastrophic climate changes undoubtedly resulted in considerable fluctuations in global carbon cycle and atmospheric gas composition. Primarily, carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gas contents were affected. The study of these catastrophes allows a conclusion that climate system is very sensitive to relatively small changes in climate-forcing factors (transparency of the atmosphere, changes in large glaciations, etc.). It is important to take this conclusion into account while estimating the possible consequences of now occurring anthropogenic warming caused by the increase in greenhouse gas concentration in the atmosphere.

[Bioethics in catastrophe situations such as earthquakes].

Science.gov (United States)

León, C Francisco Javier

2012-01-01

A catastrophe of the magnitude of the earthquake and tsunami that hit Chile not long ago, forces us to raise some questions that we will try to answer from a philosophical, ethical and responsibility viewpoints. An analysis of the basic principles of bioethics is also justified. A natural catastrophe is not, by itself, moral or immoral, fair or unfair. However, its consequences could certainly be regarded as such, depending on whether they could have been prevented or mitigated. We will identify those individuals, who have the ethical responsibility to attend the victims and the ethical principles that must guide the tasks of healthcare and psychological support teams. The minimal indispensable actions to obtain an adequate social and legal protection of vulnerable people, must be defined according to international guidelines. These reflections are intended to improve the responsibility of the State and all the community, to efficiently prevent and repair the material and psychological consequences of such a catastrophe.

A comparison of regional and global catastrophic hazards associated with energy technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heising, C.D.; Inhaber, H.

1983-01-01

This paper reviews some of what is known about the relative catastrophic hazards, on both a regional and global level, of energy technologies, and proposes a logical framework for their comparison. A review of the Inhaber study results is made indicating the relative position of overall nuclear power related risks. Then, concentration is placed on describing the catastrophic and global hazards of energy technologies. Regionally catastrophic hazards include sabotage and other malicious human activities, in addition to severe accidents caused inadvertantly by man, such as fires, reactor core damage events, chemical and poisonous gas releases, fuel storage fires and explosions, in addition to others. Global risks include such hazards as nuclear proliferation, CO 2 , build-up, oil shortages and possible national conflicts over dwindling energy fuels. The conclusion is drawn that consideration of both regional and global catastrophic risks must be made in making energy decisions, and that further study is necessary to better quantify and compare these risks. A simple decision analytic framework for making energy decisions inclusive of catastrophic risk is proposed

Electrical streaming potential precursors to catastrophic earthquakes in China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Qian

1997-06-01

Full Text Available The majority of anomalies in self-potential at 7 stations within 160 km from the epicentre showed a similar pattern of rapid onset and slow decay during and before the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake of 1976. Considering that some of these anomalies associated with episodical spouting from boreholes or the increase in pore pressure in wells, observed anomalies are streaming potential generated by local events of sudden movements and diffusion process of high-pressure fluid in parallel faults. These transient events triggered by tidal forces exhibited a periodic nature and the statistical phenomenon to migrate towards the epicentre about one month before the earthquake. As a result of events, the pore pressure reached its final equilibrium state and was higher than that in the initial state in a large enough section of the fault region. Consequently, local effective shear strength of the material in the fault zone decreased and finally the catastrophic earthquake was induced. Similar phenomena also occurred one month before the M 7.3 Haichen earthquake of 1975. Therefore, a short term earthquake prediction can be made by electrical measurements, which are the kind of geophysical measurements most closely related to pore fluid behaviors of the deep crust.

The critical catastrophe revisited

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Mulatier, Clélia; Rosso, Alberto; Dumonteil, Eric; Zoia, Andrea

2015-01-01

The neutron population in a prototype model of nuclear reactor can be described in terms of a collection of particles confined in a box and undergoing three key random mechanisms: diffusion, reproduction due to fissions, and death due to absorption events. When the reactor is operated at the critical point, and fissions are exactly compensated by absorptions, the whole neutron population might in principle go to extinction because of the wild fluctuations induced by births and deaths. This phenomenon, which has been named critical catastrophe, is nonetheless never observed in practice: feedback mechanisms acting on the total population, such as human intervention, have a stabilizing effect. In this work, we revisit the critical catastrophe by investigating the spatial behaviour of the fluctuations in a confined geometry. When the system is free to evolve, the neutrons may display a wild patchiness (clustering). On the contrary, imposing a population control on the total population acts also against the local fluctuations, and may thus inhibit the spatial clustering. The effectiveness of population control in quenching spatial fluctuations will be shown to depend on the competition between the mixing time of the neutrons (i.e. the average time taken for a particle to explore the finite viable space) and the extinction time

Photography and nuclear catastrophe. The visual representation of the occurrences in Hiroshima/Nagasaki and Chernobyl

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buerkner, Daniel

2014-01-01

The dissertation project seeks to analyse the photographic positions that deal with the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the accident of the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. This focus includes press photographs of the events as well as artistic, documentary and touristic images that take an approach towards the disasters often years after and hereby form iconographic or material references to the events. The study reveals central strategies for photographic images of atomic catastrophes, be they of military or civil nature. It is the inability to visualize non-visible nuclear rays or the complexity of processes on an atomic level that has turned out to be crucial. This incapacity of making images, a paradigm of invisibility, substantially coins the cultural role of the events. The question of how a society deals with these abstract potentials of nuclear technology has turned out to be always anew of high relevance in regard to ecological, social and technological policies of images.

Effects of microtubule mechanics on hydrolysis and catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Müller, N; Kierfeld, J

2014-01-01

We introduce a model for microtubule (MT) mechanics containing lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments, bending rigidity of dimers, and repulsive interactions between protofilaments modeling steric constraints to investigate the influence of mechanical forces on hydrolysis and catastrophes. We use the allosteric dimer model, where tubulin dimers are characterized by an equilibrium bending angle, which changes from 0 ∘ to 22 ∘ by hydrolysis of a dimer. This also affects the lateral interaction and bending energies and, thus, the mechanical equilibrium state of the MT. As hydrolysis gives rise to conformational changes in dimers, mechanical forces also influence the hydrolysis rates by mechanical energy changes modulating the hydrolysis rate. The interaction via the MT mechanics then gives rise to correlation effects in the hydrolysis dynamics, which have not been taken into account before. Assuming a dominant influence of mechanical energies on hydrolysis rates, we investigate the most probable hydrolysis pathways both for vectorial and random hydrolysis. Investigating the stability with respect to lateral bond rupture, we identify initiation configurations for catastrophes along the hydrolysis pathways and values for a lateral bond rupture force. If we allow for rupturing of lateral bonds between dimers in neighboring protofilaments above this threshold force, our model exhibits avalanche-like catastrophe events. (papers)

Catastrophic Failure and Fault-Tolerant Design of IGBT Power Electronic Converters - An Overview

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

2013-01-01

Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single-event ove......Reliability is one of the key issues for the application of Insulated Gate Bipolar Transistors (IGBTs) in power electronic converters. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT wear out failure induced by accumulated degradation and catastrophic failure triggered by single...

Improvement of the plan of measures for cases of catastrophes corresponding to radiological accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jerez Vegueria, Pablo F.; Lopez Forteza; Yamil; Diaz Guerra, Pedro I.

2003-01-01

In the year 1988 the Plan of Measures for Cases of Catastrophe (PMCC) it was focused basically to the Central Electronuclear of Juragua and the Center of Investigations Nuclear both in construction in that moment. In Cuba, with the Ordinance Law Not. 170 of the System of Civil Defense of 1997 assign the EMNDC the responsibility for the address and coordination of the material resources and humans to make in front of any catastrophe type, including the emergencies radiological. However the radiological events that could happen in rest of those practical with ionizing radiations that were carried out in the country they were not contemplated in the old conception of planning of emergency of the PMCC. In the year 2001 the CNSN and EMNDC begin a revision of the national planning from the answer to radiological emergencies developing new conceptions of planning, preparation and answer to radiological emergencies using for it categories of planning recommended by the IAEA in new technical documents emitted to the effect. Presently work is exposed the new philosophy of planning and national answer that it sustains the current Annex radiological Accidents of the PMCC

Coping with ecological catastrophe: crossing major thresholds

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Cairns, Jr.

2004-08-01

Full Text Available The combination of human population growth and resource depletion makes catastrophes highly probable. No long-term solutions to the problems of humankind will be discovered unless sustainable use of the planet is achieved. The essential first step toward this goal is avoiding or coping with global catastrophes that result from crossing major ecological thresholds. Decreasing the number of global catastrophes will reduce the risks associated with destabilizing ecological systems, which could, in turn, destabilize societal systems. Many catastrophes will be local, regional, or national, but even these upheavals will have global consequences. Catastrophes will be the result of unsustainable practices and the misuse of technology. However, avoiding ecological catastrophes will depend on the development of eco-ethics, which is subject to progressive maturation, comments, and criticism. Some illustrative catastrophes have been selected to display some preliminary issues of eco-ethics.

Challenge of material recycling at large public events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pivnenko, Kostyantyn; Edjabou, Maklawe Essonanawe; Boldrin, Alessio

2017-01-01

infrastructure. Sound waste management is one of the challenges. Some preliminary results presented here, concern waste material flows at a large public event, illustrated on the example of Roskilde Festival (Denmark). Roskilde Festival is a large annual event, which attracts more than 120,000 participants......Large public events such as festivals, sports events or national celebrations tend to attract a considerable number of people. While some of the events are important sources of entertainment for the participants, such gatherings create a challenge to organize and maintain a functioning...... recycling at the festival have been implemented, our preliminary results suggest that there is currently large potential to recover additional materials for recycling and improve sustainability at large public events....

Topographic stress and catastrophic collapse of volcanic islands

Science.gov (United States)

Moon, S.; Perron, J. T.; Martel, S. J.

2017-12-01

Flank collapse of volcanic islands can devastate coastal environments and potentially induce tsunamis. Previous studies have suggested that factors such as volcanic eruption events, gravitational spreading, the reduction of material strength due to hydrothermal alteration, steep coastal cliffs, or sea level change may contribute to slope instability and induce catastrophic collapse of volcanic flanks. In this study, we examine the potential influence of three-dimensional topographic stress perturbations on flank collapses of volcanic islands. Using a three-dimensional boundary element model, we calculate subsurface stress fields for the Canary and Hawaiian islands to compare the effects of stratovolcano and shield volcano shapes on topographic stresses. Our model accounts for gravitational stresses from the actual shapes of volcanic islands, ambient stress in the underlying plate, and the influence of pore water pressure. We quantify the potential for slope failure of volcanic flanks using a combined model of three-dimensional topographic stress and slope stability. The results of our analysis show that subsurface stress fields vary substantially depending on the shapes of volcanoes, and can influence the size and spatial distribution of flank failures.

Hazardous materials safety and security technology field operational test. Volume II, evaluation final report synthesis

Science.gov (United States)

2004-11-11

The catastrophic events of September 11, 2001 and the ongoing war on terrorism have heightened the level of concern from Federal government officials and the transportation industry regarding the secure transport of hazardous materials (HAZMAT). Secu...

Madame Bovary and Catastrophism: Revolving narratives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ruth Morris

2011-07-01

Bovary within the scientific milieu of 1850s French society by reading Flaubert’s narrative as a Cuverian text. The French scientist Georges Cuvier, along with many of his contemporaries, formulated the catastrophist theory as a means of explaining the origins of the world. In catastrophism, the world is divided into very discrete time periods which are punctuated by vast catastrophes, or in Cuverian terminology ‘revolutions’ that have eradicated life and enabled the world to be repopulated afresh. This has implications for the concept of ‘time’. Cuvier theorises the earth as being relatively recent in origin, with the present epoch being only five thousand years old. This compression of time can be inferred in Madame Bovary through references to rapidity and the tempo which increases towards the denouement. In catastrophism and Madame Bovary, time is not constructed in a linear or chronological manner. The ‘revolutions’ disrupt a realisation of continuous time and Emma is frequently unable to distinguish between past, present and future experiences. The ‘revolutions’ also serve to puncture and disrupt the status quo of life by creating massive events within the earth’s history. Emma’s life too parallels this. She regards her existence as being informed by magnitudinous events, such as the ball, which creates dislocated and fragmented time as in Cuviers’ theory. I will also argue for a connection between the suddenness and violence of the ‘revolutions’ and Emma Bovary’s emotional outbursts which occur without for-warning and border on the hysterical. A Cuverian concept of time has implications for other considerations which are arguably the main differences between catastrophism and evolution theory. These include the notions of adaptation, inheritance and death within Flaubert’s narrative.

Public policy and risk financing strategies for global catastrophe risk management - the role of global risk initiatives

Science.gov (United States)

McSharry, Patrick; Mitchell, Andrew; Anderson, Rebecca

2010-05-01

Decision-makers in both public and private organisations depend on accurate data and scientific understanding to adequately address climate change and the impact of extreme events. The financial impacts of catastrophes on populations and infrastructure can be offset through effective risk transfer mechanisms, structured to reflect the specific perils and levels of exposure to be covered. Optimal strategies depend on the likely socio-econonomic impact, the institutional framework, the overall objectives of the covers placed and the level of both the frequency and severity of loss potential expected. The diversity of approaches across different countries has been documented by the Spanish "Consorcio de Compensación de Seguros". We discuss why international public/private partnerships are necessary for addressing the risk of natural catastrophes. International initiatives such as the Global Earthquake Model (GEM) and the World Forum of Catastrophe Programmes (WFCP) can provide effective guidelines for constructing natural catastrophe schemes. The World Bank has been instrumental in the creation of many of the existing schemes such as the Turkish Catastrophe Insurance Pool, the Caribbean Catastrophe Risk Insurance Facility and the Mongolian Index-Based Livestock Insurance Program. We review existing schemes and report on best practice in relation to providing protection against natural catastrophe perils. The suitability of catastrophe modelling approaches to support schemes across the world are discussed and we identify opportunities to improve risk assessment for such schemes through transparent frameworks for quantifying, pricing, sharing and financing catastrophe risk on a local and global basis.

Adaptation to and Recovery from Global Catastrophe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seth D. Baum

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Global catastrophes, such as nuclear war, pandemics and ecological collapse threaten the sustainability of human civilization. To date, most work on global catastrophes has focused on preventing the catastrophes, neglecting what happens to any catastrophe survivors. To address this gap in the literature, this paper discusses adaptation to and recovery from global catastrophe. The paper begins by discussing the importance of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery, noting that successful adaptation/recovery could have value on even astronomical scales. The paper then discusses how the adaptation/recovery could proceed and makes connections to several lines of research. Research on resilience theory is considered in detail and used to develop a new method for analyzing the environmental and social stressors that global catastrophe survivors would face. This method can help identify options for increasing survivor resilience and promoting successful adaptation and recovery. A key point is that survivors may exist in small isolated communities disconnected from global trade and, thus, must be able to survive and rebuild on their own. Understanding the conditions facing isolated survivors can help promote successful adaptation and recovery. That said, the processes of global catastrophe adaptation and recovery are highly complex and uncertain; further research would be of great value.

Replication Catastrophe

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toledo, Luis; Neelsen, Kai John; Lukas, Jiri

2017-01-01

Proliferating cells rely on the so-called DNA replication checkpoint to ensure orderly completion of genome duplication, and its malfunction may lead to catastrophic genome disruption, including unscheduled firing of replication origins, stalling and collapse of replication forks, massive DNA...... breakage, and, ultimately, cell death. Despite many years of intensive research into the molecular underpinnings of the eukaryotic replication checkpoint, the mechanisms underlying the dismal consequences of its failure remain enigmatic. A recent development offers a unifying model in which the replication...... checkpoint guards against global exhaustion of rate-limiting replication regulators. Here we discuss how such a mechanism can prevent catastrophic genome disruption and suggest how to harness this knowledge to advance therapeutic strategies to eliminate cancer cells that inherently proliferate under...

Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-01-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light

Theory of a slow-light catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-04-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow, the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole, the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. This paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, Nature (London) 415, 406 (2002)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

Theory of a Slow-Light Catastrophe

OpenAIRE

Leonhardt, Ulf

2001-01-01

In diffraction catastrophes such as the rainbow the wave nature of light resolves ray singularities and draws delicate interference patterns. In quantum catastrophes such as the black hole the quantum nature of light resolves wave singularities and creates characteristic quantum effects related to Hawking radiation. The paper describes the theory behind a recent proposal [U. Leonhardt, arXiv:physics/0111058, Nature (in press)] to generate a quantum catastrophe of slow light.

Catastrophe theory with application in nuclear technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Valeca, Serban Constantin

2002-01-01

The monograph is structured on the following seven chapters: 1. Correlation of risk, catastrophe and chaos at the level of polyfunctional systems with nuclear injection; 1.1 Approaching the risk at the level of power systems; 1.2 Modelling the chaos-catastrophe-risk correlation in the structure of integrated classical and nuclear processes; 2. Catastrophe theory applied in ecosystems models and applications; 2.1 Posing the problems in catastrophe theory; 2.2 Application of catastrophe theory in the engineering of the power ecosystems with nuclear injection; 4.. Decision of abatement of the catastrophic risk based on minimal costs; 4.1 The nuclear power systems sensitive to risk-catastrophe-chaos in the structure of minimal costs; 4.2 Evaluating the market structure on the basis of power minimal costs; 4.3 Decisions in power systems built on minimal costs; 5. Models of computing the minimal costs in classical and nuclear power systems; 5.1 Calculation methodologies of power minimal cost; 5.2 Calculation methods of minimal costs in nuclear power sector; 6. Expert and neuro expert systems for supervising the risk-catastrophe-chaos correlation; 6.1 The structure of expert systems; 6.2 Application of the neuro expert program; 7. Conclusions and operational proposals; 7.1 A synthesis of the problems presented in this work; 7.2 Highlighting the novel aspects applicable in the power systems with nuclear injection

Application of Catastrophe Risk Modelling to Evacuation Public Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Woo, G.

2009-04-01

The decision by civic authorities to evacuate an area threatened by a natural hazard is especially fraught when the population in harm's way is extremely large, and where there is considerable uncertainty in the spatial footprint, scale, and strike time of a hazard event. Traditionally viewed as a hazard forecasting issue, civil authorities turn to scientists for advice on a potentially imminent dangerous event. However, the level of scientific confidence varies enormously from one peril and crisis situation to another. With superior observational data, meteorological and hydrological hazards are generally better forecast than geological hazards. But even with Atlantic hurricanes, the track and intensity of a hurricane can change significantly within a few hours. This complicated and delayed the decision to call an evacuation of New Orleans when threatened by Hurricane Katrina, and would present a severe dilemma if a major hurricane were appearing to head for New York. Evacuation needs to be perceived as a risk issue, requiring the expertise of catastrophe risk modellers as well as geoscientists. Faced with evidence of a great earthquake in the Indian Ocean in December 2004, seismologists were reluctant to give a tsunami warning without more direct sea observations. Yet, from a risk perspective, the risk to coastal populations would have warranted attempts at tsunami warning, even though there was significant uncertainty in the hazard forecast, and chance of a false alarm. A systematic coherent risk-based framework for evacuation decision-making exists, which weighs the advantages of an evacuation call against the disadvantages. Implicitly and qualitatively, such a cost-benefit analysis is undertaken by civic authorities whenever an evacuation is considered. With the progress in catastrophe risk modelling, such an analysis can be made explicit and quantitative, providing a transparent audit trail for the decision process. A stochastic event set, the core of a

How are the catastrophical risks quantifiable

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

For the assessment and evaluation of industrial risks the question must be asked how are the catastrophical risks quantifiable. Typical real catastrophical risks and risk assessment based on modelling assumptions have been placed against each other in order to put the risks into proper perspective. However, the society is risk averse when there is a catastrophic potential of severe accidents in a large scale industrial facility even though there is extremely low probability of occurence. (orig.) [de

Environmental catastrophes under time-inconsistent preference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Michielsen, T.

2013-02-15

I analyze optimal natural resource use in an intergenerational model with the risk of a catastrophe. Each generation maximizes a weighted sum of discounted utility (positive) and the probability that a catastrophe will occur at any point in the future (negative). The model generates time inconsistency as generations disagree on the relative weights on utility and catastrophe prevention. As a consequence, future generations emit too much from the current generation's perspective and a dynamic game ensues. I consider a sequence of models. When the environmental problem is related to a scarce exhaustible resource, early generations have an incentive to reduce emissions in Markov equilibrium in order to enhance the ecosystem's resilience to future emissions. When the pollutant is expected to become obsolete in the near future, early generations may however increase their emissions if this reduces future emissions. When polluting inputs are abundant and expected to remain essential, the catastrophe becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy and the degree of concern for catastrophe prevention has limited or even no effect on equilibrium behaviour.

How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database - analysis of flood losses

Science.gov (United States)

Kron, W.; Steuer, M.; Löw, P.; Wirtz, A.

2012-03-01

Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of human and material losses, biased reporting by interest groups, including governments, changes over time due to new findings, etc. Loss quantities are often not separable into different causes, e.g., windstorm and flood losses during a hurricane, or windstorm, hail and flooding during a severe storm event. These difficulties should be kept in mind when database figures are analysed statistically, and the results have to be treated with due regard for the characteristics of the underlying data. Comparing events at different locations and on different dates can only be done using normalised data. For most analyses, and in particular trend analyses, socio-economic changes such as inflation or growth in population and values must be considered. Problems encountered when analysing trends are discussed using the example of floods and flood losses.

Catastrophe medicine; Medecine de catastrophe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lebreton, A. [Service Technique de l`Energie Electrique et des Grands Barrages (STEEGB), (France)

1996-12-31

The `Catastrophe Medicine` congress which took place in Amiens (France) in December 5 to 7 1996 was devoted to the assessment and management of risks and hazards in natural and artificial systems. The methods of risk evaluation and prevision were discussed in the context of dams accidents with the analysis of experience feedbacks and lessons gained from the organisation of emergency plans. Three round table conferences were devoted to the importance of psychological aspects during such major crises. (J.S.)

Axial and focal-plane diffraction catastrophe integrals

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berry, M V; Howls, C J

2010-01-01

Exact expressions in terms of Bessel functions are found for some of the diffraction catastrophe integrals that decorate caustics in optics and mechanics. These are the axial and focal-plane sections of the elliptic and hyperbolic umbilic diffraction catastrophes, and symmetric elliptic and hyperbolic unfoldings of the X 9 diffraction catastrophes. These representations reveal unexpected relations between the integrals.

Coronal Flux Rope Catastrophe Associated With Internal Energy Release

Science.gov (United States)

Zhuang, Bin; Hu, Youqiu; Wang, Yuming; Zhang, Quanhao; Liu, Rui; Gou, Tingyu; Shen, Chenglong

2018-04-01

Magnetic energy during the catastrophe was predominantly studied by the previous catastrophe works since it is believed to be the main energy supplier for the solar eruptions. However, the contribution of other types of energies during the catastrophe cannot be neglected. This paper studies the catastrophe of the coronal flux rope system in the solar wind background, with emphasis on the transformation of different types of energies during the catastrophe. The coronal flux rope is characterized by its axial and poloidal magnetic fluxes and total mass. It is shown that a catastrophe can be triggered by not only an increase but also a decrease of the axial magnetic flux. Moreover, the internal energy of the rope is found to be released during the catastrophe so as to provide energy for the upward eruption of the flux rope. As far as the magnetic energy is concerned, it provides only part of the energy release, or even increases during the catastrophe, so the internal energy may act as the dominant or even the unique energy supplier during the catastrophe.

Energy catastrophes and energy consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davis, G.

1991-01-01

The possibility of energy catastrophes in the production of energy serves to make estimation of the true social costs of energy production difficult. As a result, there is a distinct possibility that the private marginal cost curve of energy producers lies to the left or right of the true cost curve. If so, social welfare will not be maximized, and underconsumption or overconsumption of fuels will exist. The occurrence of energy catastrophes and observance of the market reaction to these occurrences indicates that overconsumption of energy has been the case in the past. Postulations as to market reactions to further energy catastrophes lead to the presumption that energy consumption levels remain above those that are socially optimal

Safeguards as catastrophic risk management: insights and projections

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leffer, T.N.

2013-01-01

The system of international agreements designed to prevent the use of nuclear weapons and to control the spread of nuclear weapons, materials and technologies (collectively referred to as the nuclear arms control and nonproliferation regimes) is posited as humanity.s first attempt to mitigate a man-made global catastrophic risk. By extrapolating general principles of government response to risk from the arms control and nonproliferation regimes, a model of international regime building for catastrophic risk mitigation is constructed. This model provides the context for an examination of the system of safeguards implemented by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which serves as the nuclear nonproliferation regime.s verification and enforcement mechanism and thereby constitutes the regime's most completely developed discrete mechanism for risk mitigation (a 'system within a system'). An assessment of the history, evolution and effectiveness of the IAEA safeguards system in the context of the regimes-as-risk-mitigation model reveals some general principles for risk-mitigation regimes which are then applied to the safeguards system to identify ways in which it may be strengthened. Finally, the IAEA safeguards system is posited as the prototype verification/enforcement mechanism for future risk mitigation regimes that governments will be compelled to create in the face of new global catastrophic risks that technological advance will inevitably create. (author)

Severe abdominal pain as a presenting symptom of probable catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Haskin, Orly; Amir, Jacob; Schwarz, Michael; Schonfeld, Tommy; Nahum, Elhanan; Ling, Galina; Prais, Dario; Harel, Liora

2012-07-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) in pediatric medicine is rare. We report 3 adolescents who presented with acute onset of severe abdominal pain as the first manifestation of probable catastrophic APS. The 3 patients, 2 male patients and 1 female patient were 14 to 18 years old. One had been diagnosed with systemic lupus erythematosus in the past, but the other 2 had no previous relevant medical history. All presented with excruciating abdominal pain without additional symptoms. Physical examination was noncontributory. Laboratory results were remarkable for high inflammatory markers. Abdominal ultrasonography was normal, and abdominal computed tomography scan showed nonspecific findings of liver infiltration. Only computed tomography angiography revealed evidence of extensive multiorgan thrombosis. All patients had elevated titers of antiphospholipid antibodies. The patients were treated with full heparinization, high-dose steroids, and intravenous immunoglobulin with a resolution of symptoms. One patient was resistant to the treatment and was treated with rituximab. In conclusion, severe acute abdominal pain can be the first manifestation of a thromboembolic event owing to catastrophic APS even in previously healthy adolescents. Diagnosis requires a high index of suspicion with prompt evaluation and treatment to prevent severe morbidity and mortality.

Business continuity in blood services: two case studies from events with potentially catastrophic effect on the national provision of blood components.

Science.gov (United States)

Morgan, S J; Rackham, R A; Penny, S; Lawson, J R; Walsh, R J; Ismay, S L

2015-02-01

NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) and the Australian Red Cross Blood Service (ARCBS) are national blood establishments providing blood components to England and North Wales, and Australia, respectively. In 2012, both services experienced potentially catastrophic challenges to key assets. NHSBT suffered a flood that closed the largest blood-manufacturing centre in Europe, whilst ARCBS experienced the failure of a data centre network switch that rendered the national blood management system inaccessible for 42 h. This paper describes both crisis events, including the immediate actions, recovery procedures and lessons learned. Both incidents triggered emergency response plans. These included hospital reprovisioning and recovery from the incident. Once normal services had been restored, both events were subjected to root cause analysis (RCA) and production of 'lessons learned' reports. In both scenarios, the key enablers of rapid recovery were established emergency plans, clear leadership and the support of a flexible workforce. Product issues to hospitals were unaffected, and there were no abnormal trends in hospital complaints. RCA identified the importance of risk mitigations that require co-operation with external organizations. Reviews of both events identified opportunities to enhance business resilience through prior identification of external risks and improvements to contingency plans, for example by implementing mass messaging to staff and other stakeholders. Blood establishment emergency plans tend to focus on responding to mass casualty events. However, consolidation of manufacturing to fewer sites combined with a reliance on national IT systems increases the impact of loss of function. Blood services should develop business continuity plans which include prevention of such losses, and the maintenance of services and disaster recovery. © 2014 International Society of Blood Transfusion.

Catastrophe Finance: An Emerging Discipline

Science.gov (United States)

Elsner, James B.; Burch, R. King; Jagger, Thomas H.

2009-08-01

While the recent disasters in the world's financial markets demonstrate that finance theory remains far from perfected, science also faces steep challenges in the quest to predict and manage the effects of natural disasters. Worldwide, as many as half a million people have died in disasters such as earthquakes, tsunamis, and tropical cyclones since the turn of the 21st century [Wirtz, 2008]. Further, natural disasters can lead to extreme financial losses, and independent financial collapses can be exacerbated by natural disasters. In financial cost, 2008 was the second most expensive year on record for such catastrophes and for financial market declines. These extreme events in the natural and financial realms push the issue of risk management to the fore, expose the deficiencies of existing knowledge and practice, and suggest that progress requires further research and training at the graduate level.

Multiple Sclerosis and Catastrophic Health Expenditure in Iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Juyani, Yaser; Hamedi, Dorsa; Hosseini Jebeli, Seyede Sedighe; Qasham, Maryam

2016-09-01

There are many disabling medical conditions which can result in catastrophic health expenditure. Multiple Sclerosis is one of the most costly medical conditions through the world which encounter families to the catastrophic health expenditures. This study aims to investigate on what extent Multiple sclerosis patients face catastrophic costs. This study was carried out in Ahvaz, Iran (2014). The study population included households that at least one of their members suffers from MS. To analyze data, Logit regression model was employed by using the default software STATA12. 3.37% of families were encountered with catastrophic costs. Important variables including brand of drug, housing, income and health insurance were significantly correlated with catastrophic expenditure. This study suggests that although a small proportion of MS patients met the catastrophic health expenditure, mechanisms that pool risk and cost (e.g. health insurance) are required to protect them and improve financial and access equity in health care.

How to deal properly with a natural catastrophe database – analysis of flood losses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

W. Kron

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Global reinsurer Munich Re has been collecting data on losses from natural disasters for almost four decades. Together with EM-Dat and sigma, Munich Re's NatCatSERVICE database is currently one of three global databases of its kind, with its more than 30 000 datasets. Although the database was originally designed for reinsurance business purposes, it contains a host of additional information on catastrophic events. Data collection poses difficulties such as not knowing the exact extent of human and material losses, biased reporting by interest groups, including governments, changes over time due to new findings, etc. Loss quantities are often not separable into different causes, e.g., windstorm and flood losses during a hurricane, or windstorm, hail and flooding during a severe storm event. These difficulties should be kept in mind when database figures are analysed statistically, and the results have to be treated with due regard for the characteristics of the underlying data. Comparing events at different locations and on different dates can only be done using normalised data. For most analyses, and in particular trend analyses, socio-economic changes such as inflation or growth in population and values must be considered. Problems encountered when analysing trends are discussed using the example of floods and flood losses.

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui, E-mail: zhangqh@mail.ustc.edu.cn [CAS Key Laboratory of Geospace Environment, Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230026 (China)

2016-07-10

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

DOWNWARD CATASTROPHE OF SOLAR MAGNETIC FLUX ROPES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Quanhao; Wang, Yuming; Hu, Youqiu; Liu, Rui

2016-01-01

2.5-dimensional time-dependent ideal magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) models in Cartesian coordinates were used in previous studies to seek MHD equilibria involving a magnetic flux rope embedded in a bipolar, partially open background field. As demonstrated by these studies, the equilibrium solutions of the system are separated into two branches: the flux rope sticks to the photosphere for solutions at the lower branch but is suspended in the corona for those at the upper branch. Moreover, a solution originally at the lower branch jumps to the upper, as the related control parameter increases and reaches a critical value, and the associated jump is here referred to as an upward catastrophe. The present paper advances these studies in three aspects. First, the magnetic field is changed to be force-free; the system still experiences an upward catastrophe with an increase in each control parameter. Second, under the force-free approximation, there also exists a downward catastrophe, characterized by the jump of a solution from the upper branch to the lower. Both catastrophes are irreversible processes connecting the two branches of equilibrium solutions so as to form a cycle. Finally, the magnetic energy in the numerical domain is calculated. It is found that there exists a magnetic energy release for both catastrophes. The Ampère's force, which vanishes everywhere for force-free fields, appears only during the catastrophes and does positive work, which serves as a major mechanism for the energy release. The implications of the downward catastrophe and its relevance to solar activities are briefly discussed.

Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rawhya R. El-Shereef

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper reports one case of successfully treated patients suffering from a rare entity, the catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS. Management of this patient is discussed in detail.

Catastrophe theory and its application status in mechanical engineering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jinge LIU

Full Text Available Catastrophe theory is a kind of mathematical method which aims to apply and interpret the discontinuous phenomenon. Since its emergence, it has been widely used to explain a variety of emergent phenomena in the fields of natural science, social science, management science and some other science and technology fields. Firstly, this paper introduces the theory of catastrophe in several aspects, such as its generation, radical principle, basic characteristics and development. Secondly, it summarizes the main applications of catastrophe theory in the field of mechanical engineering, focusing on the research progress of catastrophe theory in revealing catastrophe of rotor vibration state, analyzing friction and wear failure, predicting metal fracture, and so on. Finally, it advises that later development of catastrophe theory should pay more attention to the combination of itself with other traditional nonlinear theories and methods. This paper provides a beneficial reference to guide the application of catastrophe theory in mechanical engineering and related fields for later research.

Extensional rheometer based on viscoelastic catastrophes outline

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

2014-01-01

The present invention relates to a method and a device for determining viscoelastic properties of a fluid. The invention resides inter alia in the generation of viscoelastic catastrophes in confined systems for use in the context of extensional rheology. The viscoelastic catastrophe is according ...... to the invention generated in a bistable fluid system, and the flow conditions for which the catastrophe occurs can be used as a fingerprint of the fluid's viscoelastic properties in extensional flow....

Fracturing across the multi-scales of diverse materials

Science.gov (United States)

Armstrong, R. W.; Antolovich, S. D.; Griffiths, J. R.; Knott, J. F.

2015-01-01

Everyone has to deal with fracturing of materials at one level or another, beginning from normal household chores and extending to the largest scale of observations reported for catastrophic events occurring on a geological level or even expanded to events in outer space. Such wide perspective is introduced in the current introduction of this theme issue. The follow-on organization of technical articles provides a flavour of the range in size scales at which fracturing occurs in a wide diversity of materials—from ‘fracking’ oil extraction and earth moving to laboratory testing of rock material and extending to the cracking of tooth enamel. Of important scientific interest are observations made and analysed at the smallest dimensions corresponding to the mechanisms by which fracture is either enhanced or hindered by permanent deformation or other processes. Such events are irrevocably linked to the atomic structure in all engineering materials, a sampling of which is presented, including results for crystalline and amorphous materials. Hooray for the broad subject description that is hoped to be appealing to the interested reader. PMID:25713460

Effects of plasma disruption events on ITER first wall materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cardella, A.; Gorenflo, H.; Lodato, A.; Ioki, K.; Raffray, R.

2000-01-01

In ITER, plasma disruption events may occur producing large fast thermal transients on plasma facing materials. Particularly important for the integrity of the first wall (FW) are relatively 'long' duration off-normal events such as plasma vertical displacement events (VDE) and runaway electrons (RE). An analytical methodology has been developed to specifically assess the effect of these events on FW plasma facing materials. For the typical energy densities and event duration expected for the primary and baffle FW, some melting and evaporation of the FW armor will occur without the beneficial effect of vapor shielding, and the metallic heat sink may also be damaged due to over-heating. The method is able to calculate the amount of melted and evaporated material, taking into account the evolution of the evaporated and melted layer and to evaluate possible effects of local temporary loss of cooling. The method has been used to analyze the effects of VDE and RE events for ITER, to study recent disruption simulation experiments and to benchmark experimental and analytical results

Observing a catastrophic thermokarst lake drainage in northern Alaska

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Benjamin M.; Arp, Christopher D.

2015-01-01

The formation and drainage of thermokarst lakes have reshaped ice-rich permafrost lowlands in the Arctic throughout the Holocene. North of Teshekpuk Lake, on the Arctic Coastal Plain of northern Alaska, thermokarst lakes presently occupy 22.5% of the landscape, and drained thermokarst lake basins occupy 61.8%. Analysis of remotely sensed imagery indicates that nine lakes (>10 ha) have drained in the 1,750 km2 study area between 1955 and 2014. The most recent lake drainage was observed using in situ data loggers providing information on the duration and magnitude of the event, and a nearby weather station provided information on the environmental conditions preceding the lake drainage. Lake 195 (L195), an 80 ha thermokarst lake with an estimated water volume of ~872,000 m3, catastrophically drained on 05 July 2014. Abundant winter snowfall and heavy early summer precipitation resulted in elevated lake water levels that likely promoted bank overtopping, thermo-erosion along an ice-wedge network, and formation of a 9 m wide, 2 m deep, and 70 m long drainage gully. The lake emptied in 36 hours, with 75% of the water volume loss occurring in the first ten hours. The observed peak discharge of the resultant flood was 25 m3/s, which is similar to that in northern Alaska river basins whose areas are more than two orders of magnitude larger. Our findings support the catastrophic nature of sudden lake drainage events and the mechanistic hypotheses developed by J. Ross Mackay.

Myth and catastrophic reality: using cosmogonic mythology to identify cosmic impacts and massive plinian eruptions in holocene South America.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Masse, W. B. (William Bruce)

2004-01-01

Major natural catastrophes (e.g., 'universal' floods, fire, darkness, and sky falling down) are prominently reflected in traditional South American creation myths, cosmology, religion, and worldview. We are now beginning to recognize that cosmogonic myths represent a rich and largely untapped data set concerning the most dramatic natural events and processes experienced by each cultural group during the past several thousand years. Observational details regarding specific catastrophes are encoded in myth storylines, typically cast in terms of supernatural characters and actions. Not only are the myths amenable to scientific analysis, but also some sets of myths encode multiple catastrophes in meaningful relative chronological order. The present study considers more than 4200 myths, including more than 260 'universal' catastrophe myths from cultural groups throughout South America. These myths are examined in light of available geological, paleoenvironmental, archeological, and documentary evidence. Our analysis reveals three possible ultra-plinian volcanic eruptions, two in Columbia and the other in the Gran Chaco, the latter likely associated with a poorly dated late Holocene eruption of Nuevo Mundo in central Bolivia. Our analysis also identifies a set of traditions likely linked with the well-known Campo del Cielo iron meteorite impact in northern Argentina originally hypothesized to have occurred around 4000 years ago. Intriguingly, these traditions strongly suggest that the Campo del Cielo impact triggered widespread mass fires in the Gran Chaco region and possibly in the Brazilian Highlands. Several other potential cosmic impacts, distinct from Campo del Cielo, are hinted at in the mythology of other locations in South America. The numerous catastrophe myths in the Gran Chaco region exhibit the most coherent chronological sequence of any South American region. The sequence begins with a 'Great Flood,' by far the most widespread

Catastrophic Events Caused by Cosmic Objects

CERN Document Server

Adushkin, Vitaly

2008-01-01

Many times all of us could hear from mass media that an asteroid approached and swept past the Earth. Such an asteroid or comet will inevitably strike the planet some day. This volume considers hazards due to collisions with cosmic objects, particularly in light of recent investigations of impacts by the authors. Each chapter written by an expert contains an overview of an aspect and new findings in the field. The main hazardous effects – cratering, shock, aerial and seismic waves, fires, ejection of dust and soot, tsunami are described and numerically estimated. Numerical simulations of impacts and impact consequences have received much attention in the book. Fairly small impacting objects 50 -100 m in diameter pose a real threat to humanity and their influence on the atmosphere and ionosphere is emphasized. Especially vulnerable are industrially developed areas with dense population, almost all Europe is one of them. Special chapters are devoted to the famous 1908 Tunguska event and new results of its sim...

Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa

2018-02-09

The electronic properties of interphase boundaries are of basic importance for most materials, particularly when those properties deviate strongly from the bulk behavior. We introduce a mechanism that can result in metallicity at stoichiometric interphase boundaries between semiconductors based on the idea of polar catastrophe, which is usually considered only in the context of heterostructures. To this end, we perform ab initio calculations within density functional theory to investigate the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe the formation of a hole gas between the semiconductors SnO and SnO2. To explain these findings, we provide a generalized theory based on the idea that the charge density discontinuity between SnO and SnO2, a consequence of lattice mismatch, drives a polar catastrophe scenario. As a result, SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries can develop metallicity depending on the grain size. The concept of metallicity due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity is of general validity and applies to many interphase boundaries with lattice mismatch.

Manipulation of pain catastrophizing: An experimental study of healthy participants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Joel E Bialosky

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Joel E Bialosky1*, Adam T Hirsh2,3, Michael E Robinson2,3, Steven Z George1,3*1Department of Physical Therapy; 2Department of Clinical and Health Psychology; 3Center for Pain Research and Behavioral Health, University of Florida, Gainesville, Florida, USAAbstract: Pain catastrophizing is associated with the pain experience; however, causation has not been established. Studies which specifically manipulate catastrophizing are necessary to establish causation. The present study enrolled 100 healthy individuals. Participants were randomly assigned to repeat a positive, neutral, or one of three catastrophizing statements during a cold pressor task (CPT. Outcome measures of pain tolerance and pain intensity were recorded. No change was noted in catastrophizing immediately following the CPT (F(1,84 = 0.10, p = 0.75, partial η2 < 0.01 independent of group assignment (F(4,84 = 0.78, p = 0.54, partial η2 = 0.04. Pain tolerance (F(4 = 0.67, p = 0.62, partial η2 = 0.03 and pain intensity (F(4 = 0.73, p = 0.58, partial η2 = 0.03 did not differ by group. This study suggests catastrophizing may be difficult to manipulate through experimental pain procedures and repetition of specific catastrophizing statements was not sufficient to change levels of catastrophizing. Additionally, pain tolerance and pain intensity did not differ by group assignment. This study has implications for future studies attempting to experimentally manipulate pain catastrophizing.Keywords: pain, catastrophizing, experimental, cold pressor task, pain catastrophizing scale

Natural and technologic hazardous material releases during and after natural disasters: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Stacy; Balluz, Lina; Malilay, Josephine

2004-04-25

Natural disasters may be powerful and prominent mechanisms of direct and indirect hazardous material (hazmat) releases. Hazardous materials that are released as the result of a technologic malfunction precipitated by a natural event are referred to as natural-technologic or na-tech events. Na-tech events pose unique environmental and human hazards. Disaster-associated hazardous material releases are of concern, given increases in population density and accelerating industrial development in areas subject to natural disasters. These trends increase the probability of catastrophic future disasters and the potential for mass human exposure to hazardous materials released during disasters. This systematic review summarizes direct and indirect disaster-associated releases, as well as environmental contamination and adverse human health effects that have resulted from natural disaster-related hazmat incidents. Thorough examination of historic disaster-related hazmat releases can be used to identify future threats and improve mitigation and prevention efforts.

Valuing Catastrophe Bonds Involving Credit Risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Liu

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Catastrophe bonds are the most important products in catastrophe risk securitization market. For the operating mechanism, CAT bonds may have a credit risk, so in this paper we consider the influence of the credit risk on CAT bonds pricing that is different from the other literature. We employ the Jarrow and Turnbull method to model the credit risks and get access to the general pricing formula using the Extreme Value Theory. Furthermore, we present an empirical pricing study of the Property Claim Services data, where the parameters in the loss function distribution are estimated by the MLE method and the default probabilities are deduced by the US financial market data. Then we get the catastrophe bonds value by the Monte Carlo method.

Does catastrophic thinking enhance oesophageal pain sensitivity?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martel, M O; Olesen, A E; Jørgensen, D

2016-01-01

that catastrophic thinking exerts an influence on oesophageal pain sensitivity, but not necessarily on the magnitude of acid-induced oesophageal sensitization. WHAT DOES THIS STUDY ADD?: Catastrophizing is associated with heightened pain sensitivity in the oesophagus. This was substantiated by assessing responses...

GDP-to-GTP exchange on the microtubule end can contribute to the frequency of catastrophe.

Science.gov (United States)

Piedra, Felipe-Andrés; Kim, Tae; Garza, Emily S; Geyer, Elisabeth A; Burns, Alexander; Ye, Xuecheng; Rice, Luke M

2016-11-07

Microtubules are dynamic polymers of αβ-tubulin that have essential roles in chromosome segregation and organization of the cytoplasm. Catastrophe-the switch from growing to shrinking-occurs when a microtubule loses its stabilizing GTP cap. Recent evidence indicates that the nucleotide on the microtubule end controls how tightly an incoming subunit will be bound (trans-acting GTP), but most current models do not incorporate this information. We implemented trans-acting GTP into a computational model for microtubule dynamics. In simulations, growing microtubules often exposed terminal GDP-bound subunits without undergoing catastrophe. Transient GDP exposure on the growing plus end slowed elongation by reducing the number of favorable binding sites on the microtubule end. Slower elongation led to erosion of the GTP cap and an increase in the frequency of catastrophe. Allowing GDP-to-GTP exchange on terminal subunits in simulations mitigated these effects. Using mutant αβ-tubulin or modified GTP, we showed experimentally that a more readily exchangeable nucleotide led to less frequent catastrophe. Current models for microtubule dynamics do not account for GDP-to-GTP exchange on the growing microtubule end, so our findings provide a new way of thinking about the molecular events that initiate catastrophe. © 2016 Piedra et al. This article is distributed by The American Society for Cell Biology under license from the author(s). Two months after publication it is available to the public under an Attribution–Noncommercial–Share Alike 3.0 Unported Creative Commons License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-sa/3.0).

Catastrophic loss risks: An economic and legal analysis, and a model state statute

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, M.B.

1984-01-01

Catastrophic loss risk producing facilities or activities are defined as those human enterprises which are theoretically capable of producing some credible event which entails extremely large losses of human life, health, or property. Two examples of catastrophic loss risk producing facilities are examined, commercial nuclear power plants and LNG terminals. These two types of facilities appear to produce a type of externality in that they impose uncompensated loss risk costs on neighbors. Further, these two types of facilities may be quite dependent upon the subsidies implicit in these externalities for their continued economic operation. A model state statute is proposed which would use insurance premiums as an unbiased source of probability and outcome estimates in order to eliminate this externality and the resulting subsidy, and as a way of improving the present situation within certain economic limits

Berm design to reduce risks of catastrophic slope failures at solid waste disposal sites.

Science.gov (United States)

De Stefano, Matteo; Gharabaghi, Bahram; Clemmer, Ryan; Jahanfar, M Ali

2016-11-01

Existing waste disposal sites are being strained by exceeding their volumetric capacities because of exponentially increasing rates of municipal solid waste generation worldwide, especially in densely populated metropolises. Over the past 40 years, six well-documented and analyzed disposal sites experienced catastrophic failure. This research presents a novel analysis and design method for implementation of a series of in-situ earth berms to slow down the movement of waste material flow following a catastrophic failure. This is the first study of its kind that employs a dynamic landslide analysis model, DAN-W, and the Voellmy rheological model to approximate solid waste avalanche flow. A variety of single and multiple berm configuration scenarios were developed and tested to find an optimum configuration of the various earth berm geometries and number of berms to achieve desired energy dissipation and reduction in total waste material runout length. The case study application of the novel mitigation measure shows that by constructing a series of six relatively inexpensive 3 m high earth berms at an optimum distance of 250 m from the slope toe, the total runout length of 1000 m and associated fatalities of the Leuwigajah dumpsite catastrophic failure in Bandung, Indonesia, could have been reduced by half. © The Author(s) 2016.

Assessment of the regional economic impacts of catastrophic events: CGE analysis of resource loss and behavioral effects of an RDD attack scenario.

Science.gov (United States)

Giesecke, J A; Burns, W J; Barrett, A; Bayrak, E; Rose, A; Slovic, P; Suher, M

2012-04-01

We investigate the regional economic consequences of a hypothetical catastrophic event-attack via radiological dispersal device (RDD)-centered on the downtown Los Angeles area. We distinguish two routes via which such an event might affect regional economic activity: (i) reduction in effective resource supply (the resource loss effect) and (ii) shifts in the perceptions of economic agents (the behavioral effect). The resource loss effect relates to the physical destructiveness of the event, while the behavioral effect relates to changes in fear and risk perception. Both affect the size of the regional economy. RDD detonation causes little capital damage and few casualties, but generates substantial short-run resource loss via business interruption. Changes in fear and risk perception increase the supply cost of resources to the affected region, while simultaneously reducing demand for goods produced in the region. We use results from a nationwide survey, tailored to our RDD scenario, to inform our model values for behavioral effects. Survey results, supplemented by findings from previous research on stigmatized asset values, suggest that in the region affected by the RDD, households may require higher wages, investors may require higher returns, and customers may require price discounts. We show that because behavioral effects may have lingering long-term deleterious impacts on both the supply-cost of resources to a region and willingness to pay for regional output, they can generate changes in regional gross domestic product (GDP) much greater than those generated by resource loss effects. Implications for policies that have the potential to mitigate these effects are discussed. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Catastrophic out-of-pocket payments for health and poverty nexus: evidence from Senegal.

Science.gov (United States)

Séne, Ligane Massamba; Cissé, Momath

2015-09-01

Out-of-pocket payments are the primary source through which health expenditure is met in Senegal. However, these payments are financial burdens that lead to impoverishment when they become catastrophic. The purpose of this study is to cast light on the determinants of catastrophic household out-of-pocket health expenditures and to assess their implications on poverty. The 2011 poverty monitoring survey is used in this study. This survey aims to draw poverty profiles and to highlight the socio-economic characteristics of different social groups. In line with the concerns raised by the new Supplemental Poverty Measure, poverty statistics are adjusted to take into account household health expenditures and to estimate their impoverishing effects. To identify the determinants of the magnitude of catastrophic health expenditure, we implement a seemingly unrelated equations system of Tobit regressions to take into account censoring through a conditional mixed-process estimator procedure. We identify major causes of catastrophic expenditures, such as the level of overall health spending, the expensiveness of health goods and services, the characteristics of health facilities, the health stock shocks, the lack of insurance, etc. Results show evidence that catastrophic health expenditures jeopardize household welfare for some people that fall into poverty as a result of negative effects on disposable income and disruption of the material living standards of households. Our findings warrant further policy improvements to minimize the financial risks of out-of-pocket health expenditures and increase the efficiency of health care system for more effective poverty reduction strategies.

From a Catastrophe Itself to Cata/strophic Reading. The Poetry of Charles Baudelaire in the Account of Jorge Semprúna L’écriture ou la vie

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Judith Kasper

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This essay addresses the instable meaning of the term catastrophe over the course of history. The first part takes leave of the “the tiny fissures” in the continuous catastrophe noted by Walter Benjamin to develop a philology of the cata/strophe. This philology does not only register a given meaning (for instance, of the catastrophe, but intervenes actively as disruption. It insists on the strophe in the catastrophe, transforming catastrophe into cata/strophe that, in fatal situations, permits the poetic potential to become a dynamic force that can, at least on the linguistic level, open toward other dimensions without denying the catastrophe itself. The second part is dedicated to a reading of Jorge Semprún’s autobiographical novel L’écriture ou la vie from the perspective of this philological concept. It seeks to show how Semprún’s citing and reciting of Baudelaire’s strophes in the putrid atmosphere of the Buchenwald concentration camp literally produce, on the level of the signifiers, fresh air to breathe.

Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam; Ryu, Sang Wan

2006-01-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction

Catastrophic primary antiphospholipid syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Dong Hun; Byun, Joo Nam [Chosun University Hospital, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of); Ryu, Sang Wan [Miraero21 Medical Center, Gwangju (Korea, Republic of)

2006-09-15

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPLS) was diagnosed in a 64-year-old male who was admitted to our hospital with dyspnea. The clinical and radiological examinations showed pulmonary thromboembolism, and so thromboembolectomy was performed. Abdominal distension rapidly developed several days later, and the abdominal computed tomography (CT) abdominal scan revealed thrombus within the superior mesenteric artery with small bowel and gall bladder distension. Cholecystectomy and jejunoileostomy were performed, and gall bladder necrosis and small bowel infarction were confirmed. The anticardiolipin antibody was positive. Anticoagulant agents and steroids were administered, but the patient expired 4 weeks after surgery due to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS). We report here on a case of catastrophic APLS with manifestations of pulmonary thromboembolism, rapidly progressing GB necrosis and bowel infarction.

A laboratory analogue of the event horizon using slow light in an atomic medium.

Science.gov (United States)

Leonhardt, Ulf

2002-01-24

Singularities underlie many optical phenomena. The rainbow, for example, involves a particular type of singularity-a ray catastrophe-in which light rays become infinitely intense. In practice, the wave nature of light resolves these infinities, producing interference patterns. At the event horizon of a black hole, time stands still and waves oscillate with infinitely small wavelengths. However, the quantum nature of light results in evasion of the catastrophe and the emission of Hawking radiation. Here I report a theoretical laboratory analogue of an event horizon: a parabolic profile of the group velocity of light brought to a standstill in an atomic medium can cause a wave singularity similar to that associated with black holes. In turn, the quantum vacuum is forced to create photon pairs with a characteristic spectrum, a phenomenon related to Hawking radiation. The idea may initiate a theory of 'quantum' catastrophes, extending classical catastrophe theory.

High-resolution, multi-proxy characterization of the event deposit generated by the catastrophic events associated with the Mw 6.2 earthquake of 21 April 2007 in Aysén fjord (Chile)

Science.gov (United States)

De Batist, M. A.; Van Daele, M. E.; Cnudde, V.; Duyck, P.; Tjallingii, R. H.; Pino, M.; Urrutia, R.

2012-12-01

In 2007, a seismic swarm with more than 7000 recorded earthquakes affected the region around Aysén fjord, Chile (45°25'S). The series of seismic events reached a maximum on 21 April 2007, with an Mw 6.2 earthquake. Intensities as high as VIII to IX on the Modified Mercalli scale were reported around the epicenter. Multiple debris flows, rock slides and rock avalanches were triggered along the fjord's coastline, and several of these caused impact waves or tsunamis with wave heights of up to 6 m, which inundated the fjord shorelines and caused heavy damage and 10 casualties. In order to characterize in detail the imprint left by this series of catastrophic events in the sedimentary record of the fjord, we conducted a multi-disciplinary survey of the inner fjord region in December 2009. Multibeam bathymetry and high-resolution reflection seismic data reveal that large parts of the fjord basin floor, mostly at the foot of the fjord's steep underwater slopes, are covered by recent mass-wasting deposits or consist of mass-wasting-induced deformed basin-plain sediments. A series of short sediment cores collected throughout the inner fjord contain also the more distal deposits of this significant basin-wide mass-wasting event. By combining classical sedimentological techniques (i.e. grain-size analysis, LOI and magnetic susceptibility measurements, all at high resolution) with X-ray CT scanning and XRF scanning we were able to demonstrate that the event deposits encountered in the cores have a very complex signature and actually consist of a succession of several sub-deposits, comprising distal mass-flow deposits from different source areas (as evidenced by XRF-derived geochemical provenance indications) and with a different flow direction (as evidenced by CT-derived 3D flow-direction indications, such as imbricated rip-up mud clasts, cross and convolute laminations) and tsunami- or seiche-generated deposits. This allowed us to reconstruct the succession of sedimentary

Vaginismus: heightened harm avoidance and pain catastrophizing cognitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J

2012-02-01

Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of increasing avoidance of (anticipated) pain. In vaginismus the anticipation of pain may give rise to catastrophic pain ideation. This may establish hypervigilance toward painful sexual stimuli, which consequently results in negative appraisal of sexual cues. This process could impair genital and sexual responding, intensify pain and trigger avoidance, which in turn may contribute to the onset and persistence of symptoms in vaginismus and to certain extent also in dyspareunia. To investigate whether women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by heightened levels of habitual pain catastrophic cognitions, together with higher levels of HA. This study consisted of three groups: a lifelong vaginismus group (N = 35, mean age = 28.4; standard deviation [SD] = 5.8), a dyspareunia group (N = 33, mean age = 26.7; SD = 6.8), and women without sexual complaints (N = 54, mean age = 26.5; SD = 6.7). HA scale of Cloninger's tridimensional personality questionnaire, and the pain catastrophizing scale. Specifically women inflicted with vaginismus showed significantly heightened levels of catastrophic pain cognitions compared with the other two groups, as well as significant enhanced HA vs. the control group, and a trend vs. the dyspareunia group. Both traits were shown to have cumulative predictive validity for the presence of vaginismus. This study focused on the personality traits of catastrophizing pain cognitions and HA in women with lifelong vaginismus. Our findings showed that indeed, women suffering from vaginismus are characterized by trait of HA interwoven with habitual pain catastrophizing cognitions. This study could help in the refinement of the current conceptualization and might shed

Socioeconomic inequality in catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil.

Science.gov (United States)

Boing, Alexandra Crispim; Bertoldi, Andréa Dâmaso; Barros, Aluísio Jardim Dornellas de; Posenato, Leila Garcia; Peres, Karen Glazer

2014-08-01

To analyze the evolution of catastrophic health expenditure and the inequalities in such expenses, according to the socioeconomic characteristics of Brazilian families. Data from the National Household Budget 2002-2003 (48,470 households) and 2008-2009 (55,970 households) were analyzed. Catastrophic health expenditure was defined as excess expenditure, considering different methods of calculation: 10.0% and 20.0% of total consumption and 40.0% of the family's capacity to pay. The National Economic Indicator and schooling were considered as socioeconomic characteristics. Inequality measures utilized were the relative difference between rates, the rates ratio, and concentration index. The catastrophic health expenditure varied between 0.7% and 21.0%, depending on the calculation method. The lowest prevalences were noted in relation to the capacity to pay, while the highest, in relation to total consumption. The prevalence of catastrophic health expenditure increased by 25.0% from 2002-2003 to 2008-2009 when the cutoff point of 20.0% relating to the total consumption was considered and by 100% when 40.0% or more of the capacity to pay was applied as the cut-off point. Socioeconomic inequalities in the catastrophic health expenditure in Brazil between 2002-2003 and 2008-2009 increased significantly, becoming 5.20 times higher among the poorest and 4.17 times higher among the least educated. There was an increase in catastrophic health expenditure among Brazilian families, principally among the poorest and those headed by the least-educated individuals, contributing to an increase in social inequality.

Understanding catastrophizing from a misdirected problem-solving perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Flink, Ida K; Boersma, Katja; MacDonald, Shane; Linton, Steven J

2012-05-01

The aim is to explore pain catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective. The links between catastrophizing, problem framing, and problem-solving behaviour are examined through two possible models of mediation as inferred by two contemporary and complementary theoretical models, the misdirected problem solving model (Eccleston & Crombez, 2007) and the fear-anxiety-avoidance model (Asmundson, Norton, & Vlaeyen, 2004). In this prospective study, a general population sample (n= 173) with perceived problems with spinal pain filled out questionnaires twice; catastrophizing and problem framing were assessed on the first occasion and health care seeking (as a proxy for medically oriented problem solving) was assessed 7 months later. Two different approaches were used to explore whether the data supported any of the proposed models of mediation. First, multiple regressions were used according to traditional recommendations for mediation analyses. Second, a bootstrapping method (n= 1000 bootstrap resamples) was used to explore the significance of the indirect effects in both possible models of mediation. The results verified the concepts included in the misdirected problem solving model. However, the direction of the relations was more in line with the fear-anxiety-avoidance model. More specifically, the mediation analyses provided support for viewing catastrophizing as a mediator of the relation between biomedical problem framing and medically oriented problem-solving behaviour. These findings provide support for viewing catastrophizing from a problem-solving perspective and imply a need to examine and address problem framing and catastrophizing in back pain patients. ©2011 The British Psychological Society.

Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diebel, Martin

2017-01-01

The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

Risk allocation in a public-private catastrophe insurance system : an actuarial analysis of deductibles, stop-loss, and premiums

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W. J. W.; Aerts, J. C. J. H.; Dijkstra, T. K.

A public-private (PP) partnership could be a viable arrangement for providing insurance coverage for catastrophe events, such as floods and earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to obtain insights into efficient and practical allocations of risk in a PP insurance system. In particular, this

Risk allocation in a public-private catastrophe insurance system : An actuarial analysis of deductibles, stop-loss, and premiums

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Paudel, Y.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Dijkstra, Th.; Aerts, J.C.J.H.

2015-01-01

A public-private (PP) partnership could be a viable arrangement for providing insurance coverage for catastrophe events, such as floods and earthquakes. The objective of this paper is to obtain insights into efficient and practical allocations of risk in a PP insurance system. In particular, this

Clinical Pain Catastrophizing in Women With Migraine and Obesity.

Science.gov (United States)

Bond, Dale S; Buse, Dawn C; Lipton, Richard B; Thomas, J Graham; Rathier, Lucille; Roth, Julie; Pavlovic, Jelena M; Evans, E Whitney; Wing, Rena R

2015-01-01

Obesity is related to migraine. Maladaptive pain coping strategies (eg, pain catastrophizing) may provide insight into this relationship. In women with migraine and obesity, we cross-sectionally assessed: (1) prevalence of clinical catastrophizing; (2) characteristics of those with and without clinical catastrophizing; and (3) associations of catastrophizing with headache features. Obese women migraineurs seeking weight loss treatment (n = 105) recorded daily migraine activity for 1 month via smartphone and completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Clinical catastrophizing was defined as total PCS score ≥30. The six-item Headache Impact Test (HIT-6), 12-item Allodynia Symptom Checklist (ASC-12), Headache Management Self-Efficacy Scale (HMSE), and assessments for depression (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale) and anxiety (seven-item Generalized Anxiety Disorder Scale) were also administered. Using PCS scores and body mass index (BMI) as predictors in linear regression, we modeled a series of headache features (ie, headache days, HIT-6, etc) as outcomes. One quarter (25.7%; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 17.2-34.1%) of participants met criteria for clinical catastrophizing: they had higher BMI (37.9 ± 7.5 vs 34.4 ± 5.7 kg/m(2) , P = .035); longer migraine attack duration (160.8 ± 145.0 vs 97.5 ± 75.2 hours/month, P = .038); higher HIT-6 scores (68.7 ± 4.6 vs 64.5 ± 3.9, P duration (β = 0.390, P duration, higher pain sensitivity, greater headache impact, and lower headache management self-efficacy. In all participants, PCS scores were related to several migraine characteristics, above and beyond the effects of obesity. Prospective studies are needed to determine sequence and mechanisms of relationships between catastrophizing, obesity, and migraine. © 2015 American Headache Society.

Earthquake statistics and plastic events in soft-glassy materials

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benzi, Roberto; Kumar, Pinaki; Toschi, Federico; Trampert, Jeannot

2016-01-01

We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquakes based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice–Boltzmann simulations. We show that if the material is stimulated below yield stress, plastic events occur, which have strong

Heckling the Catastrophe. On the Holocaust Literary Criticism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Paweł Wolski

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The article discusses a special kind of narrative about the catastrophe, treated as a specific genre of writing: the theory of literature of the Holocaust. The article presents its two most significant (although not the only ones features: firstly, the conviction about its unusual character as compared to other genres/forms of writing, sometimes secretly described by such concepts as the uniqueness of the Holocaust (which metonymizes not only the event itself but also the narrations referring to it and, secondly, identifies all text-producing entities (narrator, author etc., simultaneously constituting the basic feature of the most important genre/modality of this kind of writing which is testimony. The article presents the examples of Polish and foreign scholars portraying this state of affairs.

Catastrophe Theory and Caustics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gravesen, Jens

1983-01-01

It is shown by elementary methods that in codimension two and under the assumption that light rays are straight lines, a caustic is the catastrophe set for a time function. The general case is also discussed....

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Go, Ellen J L; O'Neil, Kathleen M

2017-09-01

To review the difficult syndrome of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, emphasizing new developments in the diagnosis, pathogenesis and treatment. Few recent publications directly address pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS). Most articles are case reports or are data from adult and pediatric registries. The major factors contributing to most pediatric catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome include infection and the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies, but complement activation also is important in creating diffuse thrombosis in the microcirculation. Treatment of the acute emergency requires anticoagulation, suppression of the hyperinflammatory state and elimination of the triggering infection. Inhibition of complement activation appears to improve outcome in limited studies, and suppression of antiphospholipid antibody formation may be important in long-term management. CAPS, an antibody-mediated diffuse thrombotic disease of microvasculature, is rare in childhood but has high mortality (33-50%). It requires prompt recognition and aggressive multimodality treatment, including anticoagulation, anti-inflammatory therapy and elimination of inciting infection and pathogenic autoantibodies.

Orthogonality catastrophe and fractional exclusion statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Ares, Filiberto; Gupta, Kumar S.; de Queiroz, Amilcar R.

2018-02-01

We show that the N -particle Sutherland model with inverse-square and harmonic interactions exhibits orthogonality catastrophe. For a fixed value of the harmonic coupling, the overlap of the N -body ground state wave functions with two different values of the inverse-square interaction term goes to zero in the thermodynamic limit. When the two values of the inverse-square coupling differ by an infinitesimal amount, the wave function overlap shows an exponential suppression. This is qualitatively different from the usual power law suppression observed in the Anderson's orthogonality catastrophe. We also obtain an analytic expression for the wave function overlaps for an arbitrary set of couplings, whose properties are analyzed numerically. The quasiparticles constituting the ground state wave functions of the Sutherland model are known to obey fractional exclusion statistics. Our analysis indicates that the orthogonality catastrophe may be valid in systems with more general kinds of statistics than just the fermionic type.

Creating catastrophes in the classroom

Science.gov (United States)

Andersson, Thommy

2013-04-01

Buildings, infrastructure and human life are being destroyed by wind and landslides. To interest and motivate pupils and to help them understand abstract knowledge, a practical experiment could be useful. These experiments will show why strong winds circulate around tropical cyclones and how fluvial geological processes affect nature and communities. The experiments are easy to set up and the equipment is not expensive. Experiment 1: Exogenic processes of water are often slow processes. This experiment will simulate water processes that can take thousands of years, in less than 40 minutes. This experiment can be presented for and understood by pupils at all levels. Letting the pupils build up the scenery will make them more curious about the course of events. During that time they will see the geomorphological genesis of landforms such as landslides, sandurs, deltas, canyons sedimentations, selective erosions. Placing small houses, bridges etc. we can lead to discussions about natural catastrophes and community planning. Material needed for the experiment is a water bucket, erosion gutter, clay (simulating rock), sand and smaller pebbles (simulating the soil), houses of "Monopoly" size and tubes. By using a table with wheels it is easy to reuse the result for other lessons. Installation of a pump can make the experiment into a closed loop system. This installation can be used for presentations outside the classroom. Experiment 2: The Coriolis Effect explains why the wind (moving objects) deflects when moving. In the northern hemisphere the deflection is clockwise and anti-clockwise in the southern hemisphere. This abstract effect is often hard for upper secondary pupils to understand. This experiment will show the effect and thus make the theory real and visible. Material needed for this experiment is a bucket, pipes, a string. At my school we had cooperation with pupils from the Industrial Technology programme who made a copper pipe construction. During the

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Science.gov (United States)

Gunardi, Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-12-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth's tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, `act-of-God bond', or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake's magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, `coupon only at risk' bond, and `principal and coupon at risk' bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model's parameter, GEV's parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Paraboles et catastrophes

CERN Document Server

Thom, René

1983-01-01

René Thom, mathématicien français, membre de l'Académie des Sciences, s'est vu décerner en 1958 la médaille Field, équivalent du Prix Nobel en mathématiques, pour ses créations intellectuelles, la " théorie des catastrophes ", regard nouveau sur toutes les transformations qui adviennent de manière brusque, imprévisible, dramatique. Dans ces entretiens qui vont de la mathématique à l'embryologie, de la linguistique à l'anthropologie et à l'histoire, René Thom expose les grandes lignes de la théorie des catastrophes et passe en revue, avec un esprit à la fois critique et passionné, les grands thèmes scientifiques de notre époque, de la physique atomique à la biologie moléculaire, du " progrès " scientifique et technologique aux connexions complexes entre la société et la science. " Ce petit livre est une extraordinaire réussite en vulgarisation ". (Jean Largeault)

Catastrophe, Gender and Urban Experience, 1648–1920

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Employing a broad definition of catastrophe, this book examines how urban communities conceived, adapted to and were transformed by catastrophes. Competing views of gender figure in the telling and retelling of these trag- edies, which are mediated by myth and memory. This is a nuanced account...

Catastrophizing Interferes with Cognitive Modulation of Pain in Women with Fibromyalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

Ellingson, Laura D; Stegner, Aaron J; Schwabacher, Isaac J; Lindheimer, Jacob B; Cook, Dane B

2018-02-21

Pain modulation is a critical function of the nociceptive system that includes the ability to engage descending pain control systems to maintain a functional balance between facilitation and inhibition of incoming sensory stimuli. Dysfunctional pain modulation is associated with increased risk for chronic pain and is characteristic of fibromyalgia (FM). Catastrophizing is also common in FM. However, its influence on pain modulation is poorly understood. To determine the role of catastrophizing on central nervous system processing during pain modulation in FM via examining brain responses and pain sensitivity during an attention-distraction paradigm. Twenty FM patients and 18 healthy controls (CO) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while receiving pain stimuli, administered alone and during distracting cognitive tasks. Pain ratings were assessed after each stimulus. Catastrophizing was assessed with the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). The ability to modulate pain during distraction varied among FM patients and was associated with catastrophizing. This was demonstrated by significant positive relationships between PCS scores and pain ratings (P modulation did not differ between FM and CO (P > 0.05). FM patients with higher levels of catastrophizing were less able to distract themselves from pain, indicative of catastrophizing-related impairments in pain modulation. These results suggest that the tendency to catastrophize interacts with attention-resource allocation and may represent a mechanism of chronic pain exacerbation and/or maintenance. Reducing catastrophizing may improve FM symptoms via improving central nervous system regulation of pain.

Assessment of events involving transport of radioactive materials in France, 1999-2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report presents transport events involving radioactive materials that occurred in France from 1999 to 2011 and entered in the IRSN's database. For each of the 1,304 events recorded, many parameters have been collected and analysed from information listed in the declarations and reports of events sent by users (type of event, purpose, package design, INES level, etc.). The number of events declared in 2010 and 2011 is slightly higher than the average of 100 events per year. The two main reasons for declaration concern errors in transport documentation or labelling and handling mishaps. The new data confirm the downward trend in frequency of package and vehicle contaminations. A short description of outstanding events in 2010 and 2011 is included. This assessment also gives an outline of the actions recommended by IRSN to avoid recurrence of declared events and improve the safety of radioactive material transport. (authors)

Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (I): catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

2011-02-01

The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyse the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analysed on the catastrophic APS, APS nephropathy and heart valve lesions, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

Catastrophic risks and insurance in farm-level decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.

2008-01-01

Keywords: risk perception, risk attitude, catastrophic risk, insurance, farm characteristics, farmer personal characteristics, utility-efficient programming, arable farming, dairy farming

Catastrophic risks can cause severe cash flow problems for farmers or even result into their

Predicting catastrophes of non-autonomous networks with visibility graphs and horizontal visibility

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Haicheng; Xu, Daolin; Wu, Yousheng

2018-05-01

Prediction of potential catastrophes in engineering systems is a challenging problem. We first attempt to construct a complex network to predict catastrophes of a multi-modular floating system in advance of their occurrences. Response time series of the system can be mapped into an virtual network by using visibility graph or horizontal visibility algorithm. The topology characteristics of the networks can be used to forecast catastrophes of the system. Numerical results show that there is an obvious corresponding relationship between the variation of topology characteristics and the onset of catastrophes. A Catastrophe Index (CI) is proposed as a numerical indicator to measure a qualitative change from a stable state to a catastrophic state. The two approaches, the visibility graph and horizontal visibility algorithms, are compared by using the index in the reliability analysis with different data lengths and sampling frequencies. The technique of virtual network method is potentially extendable to catastrophe predictions of other engineering systems.

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda

2015-01-01

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation

Valuation of Indonesian catastrophic earthquake bonds with generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution and Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gunardi,; Setiawan, Ezra Putranda [Mathematics Department, Gadjah Mada University (Indonesia)

2015-12-22

Indonesia is a country with high risk of earthquake, because of its position in the border of earth’s tectonic plate. An earthquake could raise very high amount of damage, loss, and other economic impacts. So, Indonesia needs a mechanism for transferring the risk of earthquake from the government or the (reinsurance) company, as it could collect enough money for implementing the rehabilitation and reconstruction program. One of the mechanisms is by issuing catastrophe bond, ‘act-of-God bond’, or simply CAT bond. A catastrophe bond issued by a special-purpose-vehicle (SPV) company, and then sold to the investor. The revenue from this transaction is joined with the money (premium) from the sponsor company and then invested in other product. If a catastrophe happened before the time-of-maturity, cash flow from the SPV to the investor will discounted or stopped, and the cash flow is paid to the sponsor company to compensate their loss because of this catastrophe event. When we consider the earthquake only, the amount of discounted cash flow could determine based on the earthquake’s magnitude. A case study with Indonesian earthquake magnitude data show that the probability of maximum magnitude can model by generalized extreme value (GEV) distribution. In pricing this catastrophe bond, we assumed stochastic interest rate that following the Cox-Ingersoll-Ross (CIR) interest rate model. We develop formulas for pricing three types of catastrophe bond, namely zero coupon bonds, ‘coupon only at risk’ bond, and ‘principal and coupon at risk’ bond. Relationship between price of the catastrophe bond and CIR model’s parameter, GEV’s parameter, percentage of coupon, and discounted cash flow rule then explained via Monte Carlo simulation.

Pricing catastrophic bonds for earthquakes in Mexico

OpenAIRE

Cabrera, Brenda López

2006-01-01

After the occurrence of a natural disaster, the reconstruction can be financed with catastrophic bonds (CAT bonds) or reinsurance. For insurers, reinsurers and other corporations CAT bonds provide multi year protection without the credit risk present in reinsurance. For investors CAT bonds offer attractive returns and reduction of portfolio risk, since CAT bonds defaults are uncorrelated with defaults of other securities. As the study of natural catastrophe models plays an important role in t...

Locally adapted fish populations maintain small-scale genetic differentiation despite perturbation by a catastrophic flood event.

Science.gov (United States)

Plath, Martin; Hermann, Bernd; Schröder, Christiane; Riesch, Rüdiger; Tobler, Michael; García de León, Francisco J; Schlupp, Ingo; Tiedemann, Ralph

2010-08-23

Local adaptation to divergent environmental conditions can promote population genetic differentiation even in the absence of geographic barriers and hence, lead to speciation. Perturbations by catastrophic events, however, can distort such parapatric ecological speciation processes. Here, we asked whether an exceptionally strong flood led to homogenization of gene pools among locally adapted populations of the Atlantic molly (Poecilia mexicana, Poeciliidae) in the Cueva del Azufre system in southern Mexico, where two strong environmental selection factors (darkness within caves and/or presence of toxic H2S in sulfidic springs) drive the diversification of P. mexicana. Nine nuclear microsatellites as well as heritable female life history traits (both as a proxy for quantitative genetics and for trait divergence) were used as markers to compare genetic differentiation, genetic diversity, and especially population mixing (immigration and emigration) before and after the flood. Habitat type (i.e., non-sulfidic surface, sulfidic surface, or sulfidic cave), but not geographic distance was the major predictor of genetic differentiation. Before and after the flood, each habitat type harbored a genetically distinct population. Only a weak signal of individual dislocation among ecologically divergent habitat types was uncovered (with the exception of slightly increased dislocation from the Cueva del Azufre into the sulfidic creek, El Azufre). By contrast, several lines of evidence are indicative of increased flood-induced dislocation within the same habitat type, e.g., between different cave chambers of the Cueva del Azufre. The virtual absence of individual dislocation among ecologically different habitat types indicates strong natural selection against migrants. Thus, our current study exemplifies that ecological speciation in this and other systems, in which extreme environmental factors drive speciation, may be little affected by temporary perturbations, as adaptations

Rare event techniques applied in the Rasmussen study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vesely, W.E.

1977-01-01

The Rasmussen Study estimated public risks from commercial nuclear power plant accidents, and therefore the statistics of rare events had to be treated. Two types of rare events were specifically handled, those rare events which were probabilistically rare events and those which were statistically rare events. Four techniques were used to estimate probabilities of rare events. These techniques were aggregating data samples, discretizing ''continuous'' events, extrapolating from minor to catastrophic severities, and decomposing events using event trees and fault trees. In aggregating or combining data the goal was to enlarge the data sample so that the rare event was no longer rare, i.e., so that the enlarged data sample contained one or more occurrences of the event of interest. This aggregation gave rise to random variable treatments of failure rates, occurrence frequencies, and other characteristics estimated from data. This random variable treatment can be interpreted as being comparable to an empirical Bayes technique or a Bayesian technique. In the discretizing event technique, events of a detailed nature were grouped together into a grosser event for purposes of analysis as well as for data collection. The treatment of data characteristics as random variables helped to account for the uncertainties arising from this discretizing. In the severity extrapolation technique a severity variable was associated with each event occurrence for the purpose of predicting probabilities of catastrophic occurrences. Tail behaviors of distributions therefore needed to be considered. Finally, event trees and fault trees were used to express accident occurrences and system failures in terms of more basic events for which data existed. Common mode failures and general dependencies therefore needed to be treated. 2 figures

Stagewise cognitive development: an application of catastrophe theory.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Maas, H L; Molenaar, P C

1992-07-01

In this article an overview is given of traditional methodological approaches to stagewise cognitive developmental research. These approaches are evaluated and integrated on the basis of catastrophe theory. In particular, catastrophe theory specifies a set of common criteria for testing the discontinuity hypothesis proposed by Piaget. Separate criteria correspond to distinct methods used in cognitive developmental research. Such criteria are, for instance, the detection of spurts in development, bimodality of test scores, and increased variability of responses during transitional periods. When a genuine stage transition is present, these criteria are expected to be satisfied. A revised catastrophe model accommodating these criteria is proposed for the stage transition in cognitive development from the preoperational to the concrete operational stage.

Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

Science.gov (United States)

van de Ven, W P; Schut, F T

1994-11-01

In 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and catastrophic risks (like several forms of expensive long-term care). However, there are two arguments to exclude some of the catastrophic risks from the competitive insurance market, at least during the implementation process of the reforms. Firstly, the prospects for a workable system of risk-adjusted payments to the insurers that should take away the incentives for cream skimming are, at least during the next 5 years, more favorable for the non-catastrophic risks than for the catastrophic risks. Secondly, even if a workable system of risk-adjusted payments can be developed, the problem of quality skimping may be relevant for some of the catastrophic risks, but not for non-catastrophic risks. By 'quality skimping' we mean the reduction of the quality of care to a level which is below the minimum level that is acceptable to society. After 5 years of health care reforms in the Netherlands new insights have resulted in a growing support to confine the implementation of the reforms to the non-catastrophic risks. In drawing (and redrawing) the exact boundaries between different regulatory regimes for catastrophic and non-catastrophic risks, the expected benefits of a cost-effective substitution of care have to be weighted against the potential harm caused by cream skimming and quality skimping.

Indirect Catastrophic Injuries in Olympic Styles of Wrestling in Iran

OpenAIRE

Kordi, Ramin; Ziaee, Vahid; Rostami, Mohsen; Wallace, W. Angus

2011-01-01

Background: Data on indirect catastrophic injuries in wrestling are scarce. Objectives: To develop a profile of indirect catastrophic injuries in international styles of wrestling and to describe possible risk factors. Study Design: Retrospective case series; Level of evidence, 3. Methods: Indirect catastrophic injuries that occurred in wrestling clubs in Iran from July 1998 to June 2005 were identified by contacting several sources. The cases were retrospectively reviewed. Results: The injur...

Reactor accidents and nuclear catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchhoff, R.; Linde, H.J.

1979-01-01

Assuming some preliminary knowledge of the fundamentals of atomic physics, the book describes the effects of ionizing radiation on the human organism. In order to assess the potential hazards of reactor accidents and the extent of a nuclear catastrophe, the technology of power generation in nuclear power stations is presented together with its potential dangers as well as the physical and medical processes occurring during a nuclear weapons explosion. The special medical aspects are presented which range from first aid in the case of a catastrophe to the accute radiation syndrome, the treatment of burns to the therapy of late radiolesions. Finally, it is confirmed that the treatment of radiation injured persons does not give rise to basically new medical problems. (orig./HP) [de

Microtubule catastrophe and rescue.

Science.gov (United States)

Gardner, Melissa K; Zanic, Marija; Howard, Jonathon

2013-02-01

Microtubules are long cylindrical polymers composed of tubulin subunits. In cells, microtubules play an essential role in architecture and motility. For example, microtubules give shape to cells, serve as intracellular transport tracks, and act as key elements in important cellular structures such as axonemes and mitotic spindles. To accomplish these varied functions, networks of microtubules in cells are very dynamic, continuously remodeling through stochastic length fluctuations at the ends of individual microtubules. The dynamic behavior at the end of an individual microtubule is termed 'dynamic instability'. This behavior manifests itself by periods of persistent microtubule growth interrupted by occasional switching to rapid shrinkage (called microtubule 'catastrophe'), and then by switching back from shrinkage to growth (called microtubule 'rescue'). In this review, we summarize recent findings which provide new insights into the mechanisms of microtubule catastrophe and rescue, and discuss the impact of these findings in regards to the role of microtubule dynamics inside of cells. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Pressure Effects Analysis of National Ignition Facility Capacitor Module Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brereton, S; Ma, C; Newton, M; Pastrnak, J; Price, D; Prokosch, D

1999-01-01

Capacitors and power conditioning systems required for the National Ignition Facility (NIF) have experienced several catastrophic failures during prototype demonstration. These events generally resulted in explosion, generating a dramatic fireball and energetic shrapnel, and thus may present a threat to the walls of the capacitor bay that houses the capacitor modules. The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the ability of the capacitor bay walls to withstand the overpressure generated by the aforementioned events. Two calculations are described in this paper. The first one was used to estimate the energy release during a fireball event and the second one was used to estimate the pressure in a capacitor module during a capacitor explosion event. Both results were then used to estimate the subsequent overpressure in the capacitor bay where these events occurred. The analysis showed that the expected capacitor bay overpressure was less than the pressure tolerance of the walls. To understand the risk of the above events in NIF, capacitor module failure probabilities were also calculated. This paper concludes with estimates of the probability of single module failure and multi-module failures based on the number of catastrophic failures in the prototype demonstration facility

Earthquake statistics inferred from plastic events in soft-glassy materials

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Benzi, Roberto; Toschi, Federico; Trampert, Jeannot

2016-01-01

We propose a new approach for generating synthetic earthquake catalogues based on the physics of soft glasses. The continuum approach produces yield-stress materials based on Lattice-Boltzmann simulations. We show that, if the material is stimulated below yield stress, plastic events occur, which

Pain catastrophizing predicts verbal expression among children with chronic pain and their mothers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shelby L Langer

2016-03-01

Full Text Available This study examined intra- and inter-personal associations between pain catastrophizing and verbal expression in 70 children with recurrent abdominal pain and their mothers. Participants independently completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. Mothers and children then talked about the child’s pain. Speech was categorized using a linguistic analysis program. Catastrophizing was positively associated with the use of negative emotion words by both mothers and children. In addition, mothers’ catastrophizing was positively associated with both mothers’ and children’s anger word usage, whereas children’s catastrophizing was inversely associated with mothers’ anger word usage. Findings extend the literature on behavioral and interpersonal aspects of catastrophizing.

Single Event Burnout in DC-DC Converters for the LHC Experiments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Claudio H. Rivetta et al.

2001-09-24

High voltage transistors in DC-DC converters are prone to catastrophic Single Event Burnout in the LHC radiation environment. This paper presents a systematic methodology to analyze single event effects sensitivity in converters and proposes solutions based on de-rating input voltage and output current or voltage.

The Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale: a useful instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Miró, Jordi; Nieto, Rubén; Huguet, Anna

2008-05-01

The main aims of this work were to test the psychometric properties of the Catalan version of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) and to assess the usefulness of the scale when used with whiplash patients. This article reports results from 2 complementary studies. In the first one, the PCS was administered to 280 students and 146 chronic pain patients to examine the psychometric properties of a new Catalan version of the instrument. A confirmatory factor analysis supported a second-order structure, in which 3 second-order factors (ie, rumination, helplessness, and magnification) load in a higher-order factor (ie, catastrophizing). The reliability of the Catalan version was supported by an acceptable internal consistency and test-retest values. Validity was supported by the correlations found among the PCS and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. The objective of the second study was to evaluate the PCS when used with whiplash patients. In this second study, 141 patients with whiplash disorders participated. In general, the psychometric properties of the PCS were found appropriate, with factor analysis supporting the structure described in patients with chronic pain. Our data suggest that the PCS is a good instrument to assess catastrophic thinking in whiplash patients. The usefulness of the PCS in whiplash disorders has been explored in this study. Results of our work show that the PCS can be a very useful tool to assess catastrophic thinking about pain in whiplash patients.

Controlling extreme events on complex networks

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yu-Zhong; Huang, Zi-Gang; Lai, Ying-Cheng

2014-08-01

Extreme events, a type of collective behavior in complex networked dynamical systems, often can have catastrophic consequences. To develop effective strategies to control extreme events is of fundamental importance and practical interest. Utilizing transportation dynamics on complex networks as a prototypical setting, we find that making the network ``mobile'' can effectively suppress extreme events. A striking, resonance-like phenomenon is uncovered, where an optimal degree of mobility exists for which the probability of extreme events is minimized. We derive an analytic theory to understand the mechanism of control at a detailed and quantitative level, and validate the theory numerically. Implications of our finding to current areas such as cybersecurity are discussed.

A critical look at catastrophe risk assessments

CERN Document Server

Kent, A

2004-01-01

Recent papers by Busza et al. (BJSW) and Dar et al. (DDH) argue that astrophysical data can be used to establish bounds on the risk of a catastrophe in forthcoming collider experiments. The safety case set out by BJSW does not rely on these bounds, but on theoretical arguments, which BJSW find sufficiently compelling. However, DDH and other commentators (initially including BJSW) have suggested that the astrophysical bounds alone do give sufficient reassurance. This seems unsupportable when the bounds are expressed in terms of expected cost. For example, DDH's main bound, $p_{\\rm catastrophe} < 2 \\times 10^{-8}$, implies only that the expectation value of the number of deaths is bounded by 120. We thus reappraise the DDH and BJSW risk bounds by comparing risk policy in other areas. We find that requiring a catastrophe risk of no higher than 10^{-15} is necessary to be consistent with established policy for risk optimisation from radiation hazards, even if highly risk tolerant assumptions are made. A respec...

Pain Catastrophizing Correlates with Early Mild Traumatic Brain Injury Outcome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Geneviève Chaput

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Identifying which patients are most likely to be at risk of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms following mild traumatic brain injury (MTBI is a difficult clinical challenge. Objectives. To examine the relationship between pain catastrophizing, defined as the exaggerated negative appraisal of a pain experience, and early MTBI outcome. Methods. This cross-sectional design included 58 patients diagnosed with a MTBI. In addition to medical chart review, postconcussion symptoms were assessed by self-report at 1 month (Time 1 and 8 weeks (Time 2 after MTBI. Pain severity, psychological distress, level of functionality, and pain catastrophizing were measured by self-report at Time 2. Results. The pain catastrophizing subscales of rumination, magnification, and helplessness were significantly correlated with pain severity (r=.31 to .44, number of postconcussion symptoms reported (r=.35 to .45, psychological distress (r=.57 to .67, and level of functionality (r=-.43 to -.29. Pain catastrophizing scores were significantly higher for patients deemed to be at high risk of postconcussion syndrome (6 or more symptoms reported at both Time 1 and Time 2. Conclusions. Higher levels of pain catastrophizing were related to adverse early MTBI outcomes. The early detection of pain catastrophizing may facilitate goal-oriented interventions to prevent or minimize the development of chronic pain and other postconcussion symptoms.

Vaporization studies of plasma interactive materials in simulated plasma disruption events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stone, C.A. IV; Croessmann, C.D.; Whitley, J.B.

1988-03-01

The melting and vaporization that occur when plasma facing materials are subjected to a plasma disruption will severely limit component lifetime and plasma performance. A series of high heat flux experiments was performed on a group of fusion reactor candidate materials to model material erosion which occurs during plasma disruption events. The Electron Beam Test System was used to simulate single disruption and multiple disruption phenomena. Samples of aluminum, nickel, copper, molybdenum, and 304 stainless steel were subjected to a variety of heat loads, ranging from 100 to 400 msec pulses of 8 to 18 kWcm 2 . It was found that the initial surface temperature of a material strongly influences the vaporization process and that multiple disruptions do not scale linearly with respect to single disruption events. 2 refs., 9 figs., 5 tabs

Ballistic Puncture Self-Healing Polymeric Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Gordon, Keith L.; Siochi, Emilie J.; Yost, William T.; Bogert, Phil B.; Howell, Patricia A.; Cramer, K. Elliott; Burke, Eric R.

2017-01-01

Space exploration launch costs on the order of $10,000 per pound provide an incentive to seek ways to reduce structural mass while maintaining structural function to assure safety and reliability. Damage-tolerant structural systems provide a route to avoiding weight penalty while enhancing vehicle safety and reliability. Self-healing polymers capable of spontaneous puncture repair show promise to mitigate potentially catastrophic damage from events such as micrometeoroid penetration. Effective self-repair requires these materials to quickly heal following projectile penetration while retaining some structural function during the healing processes. Although there are materials known to possess this capability, they are typically not considered for structural applications. Current efforts use inexpensive experimental methods to inflict damage, after which analytical procedures are identified to verify that function is restored. Two candidate self-healing polymer materials for structural engineering systems are used to test these experimental methods.

Photography and nuclear catastrophe. The visual representation of the occurrences in Hiroshima/Nagasaki and Chernobyl; Fotografie und atomare Katastrophe. Die visuelle Repraesentation der Ereignisse von Hiroshima/Nagasaki und Tschernobyl

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Buerkner, Daniel

2014-02-13

The dissertation project seeks to analyse the photographic positions that deal with the atomic bomb attacks on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and the accident of the nuclear power plant in Chernobyl. This focus includes press photographs of the events as well as artistic, documentary and touristic images that take an approach towards the disasters often years after and hereby form iconographic or material references to the events. The study reveals central strategies for photographic images of atomic catastrophes, be they of military or civil nature. It is the inability to visualize non-visible nuclear rays or the complexity of processes on an atomic level that has turned out to be crucial. This incapacity of making images, a paradigm of invisibility, substantially coins the cultural role of the events. The question of how a society deals with these abstract potentials of nuclear technology has turned out to be always anew of high relevance in regard to ecological, social and technological policies of images.

Catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal: a cross-sectional survey.

Science.gov (United States)

Saito, Eiko; Gilmour, Stuart; Rahman, Md Mizanur; Gautam, Ghan Shyam; Shrestha, Pradeep Krishna; Shibuya, Kenji

2014-10-01

To determine the incidence of - and illnesses commonly associated with - catastrophic household expenditure on health in Nepal. We did a cross-sectional population-based survey in five municipalities of Kathmandu Valley between November 2011 and January 2012. For each household surveyed, out-of-pocket spending on health in the previous 30 days that exceeded 10% of the household's total expenditure over the same period was considered to be catastrophic. We estimated the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure. We identified the illnesses most commonly associated with such expenditure using a Poisson regression model and assessed the distribution of expenditure by economic quintile of households using the concentration index. Overall, 284 of the 1997 households studied in Kathmandu, i.e. 13.8% after adjustment by sampling weight, reported catastrophic health expenditure in the 30 days before the survey. After adjusting for confounders, this expenditure was found to be associated with injuries, particularly those resulting from road traffic accidents. Catastrophic expenditure by households in the poorest quintile were associated with at least one episode of diabetes, asthma or heart disease. In an urban area of Nepal, catastrophic household expenditure on health was mostly associated with injuries and noncommunicable diseases such as diabetes and asthma. Throughout Nepal, interventions for the control and management of noncommunicable diseases and the prevention of road traffic accidents should be promoted. A phased introduction of health insurance should also reduce the incidence of catastrophic household expenditure.

UK experience of managing a radioactive materials transport event database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barton, N.J.; Barrett, J.A.

1999-01-01

A description is given of the transport event database RAMTED and the related annual accident and incident reports. This database covers accidents and incidents involving the transport of radioactive material in the UK from 1958 to the present day. The paper discusses the history and content of the database, the origin of event data contained in it, the criteria for inclusion and future developments. (author)

Chernobyl catastrophe: Information for people living in the contaminated areas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borisevich, Nikolaj

2001-01-01

The radioactive blow-outs after the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant catastrophe reached many states. The largest amount of them (according to experts' estimations - 70%) fell out on the Belarus territory. The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. More than 14 years have passed since the Chernobyl NPP accident but some of the problems caused by the catastrophe have not been solved. This is bound up, first of all, with a high collective dosage absorbed by the population, with difficulties in forecasting and prophylactics of remote radiological effects, with ecological and economic crisis. The consequences of the disaster greatly affect all the aspects of vital activities of the affected regions and the state as a whole. Destructive tendencies have been revealed in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population inhabiting the contaminated territory and resettled as well, require considerable optimisation. Negative factors of the Chernobyl catastrophe, which are significant for human health can be divided into two groups as follows: radiation-based, directly related to influence of ionising radiation and non radiation based, related to changes in habitat and prolonged psychological stress. The specific peculiarities of psychogenic disorders caused by the catastrophe are determined by the following reasons: insufficient knowledge of radiation effects; constant apprehension for the health and well-being of themselves and their families, especially children; unexpected change of the life stereotype (forced resettlement, the break of the former life, changing the place and the character of work, etc.); the necessity of constant keeping precaution measures and prophylactic

The Effectiveness of Catastrophe Bonds in Portfolio Diversification

OpenAIRE

Mariani, Massimo; Amoruso, Paola

2016-01-01

The rapid growth of catastrophe bonds in financial markets is due to increasing environmental disasters and consequent economic losses, barely covered by insurance and reinsurance companies. These securities represent an effective solution, allowing the risk transfer to the capital market. The objective of this paper is to prove real advantages of the investor who operates in this market segment, in terms of portfolio diversification. The present work indeed shows how investing in catastrophe...

An application of Mean Escape Time and metapopulation on forestry catastrophe insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiangcheng; Zhang, Chunmin; Liu, Jifa; Li, Zhen; Yang, Xuan

2018-04-01

A forestry catastrophe insurance model due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics is developed by employing metapopulation dynamics and statistics properties of Mean Escape Time (MET). The probability of outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss and the catastrophe loss payment time with MET are respectively investigated. Forestry loss data in China is used for model simulation. Experimental results are concluded as: (1) The model with analytical results is shown to be a better fit; (2) Within the condition of big area of patches and structure of patches, high system factor, low extinction rate, high multiplicative noises, and additive noises with a high cross-correlated strength range, an outbreak of forestry catastrophe loss or catastrophe loss payment due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics could occur; (3) An optimal catastrophe loss payment time MET due to forestry pest infestations and disease epidemics can be identified by taking proper value of multiplicative noises and limits the additive noises on a low range of value, and cross-correlated strength at a high range of value.

Purchase of Catastrophe Insurance by Dutch Dairy and Arable Farmers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2009-01-01

This article analyzed the impact of risk perception, risk attitude, and other farmer personal and farm characteristics on the actual purchase of catastrophe insurance by Dutch dairy and arable farmers. The specific catastrophe insurance types considered were hail–fire–storm insurance for buildings,

Ascertaining the impact of catastrophic events on dengue outbreak: The 2014 gas explosions in Kaohsiung, Taiwan

Science.gov (United States)

2017-01-01

Infectious disease outbreaks often occur in the aftermath of catastrophic events, either natural or man-made. While natural disasters such as typhoons/hurricanes, flooding and earthquakes have been known to increase the risk of infectious disease outbreak, the impact of anthropogenic disasters is less well-understood. Kaohsiung City is located in southern Taiwan, where most dengue outbreaks had occurred in the past two decades. It is also the center of petrochemical industry in Taiwan with pipelines running underneath city streets. Multiple underground gas explosions occurred in Kaohsiung in the evening of July 31, 2014 due to chemical leaks in the pipelines. The explosions caused 32 deaths, including five firefighters and two volunteer firefighters, and injured 321 persons. Historically, dengue outbreaks in southern Taiwan occurred mostly in small numbers of around 2000 cases or less, except in 2002 with over 5000 cases. However, in the months after the gas explosions, the city reported 14528 lab-confirmed dengue cases from August to December. To investigate the possible impact, if any, of the gas explosions on this record-breaking dengue outbreak, a simple mathematical model, the Richards model, is utilized to study the temporal patterns of the spread of dengue in the districts of Kaohsiung in the proximity of the explosion sites and to pinpoint the waves of infections that had occurred in each district in the aftermath of the gas explosions. The reproduction number of each wave in each district is also computed. In the aftermath of the gas explosions, early waves occurred 4–5 days (which coincides with the minimum of human intrinsic incubation period for dengue) later in districts with multiple waves. The gas explosions likely impacted the timing of the waves, but their impact on the magnitude of the 2014 outbreak remains unclear. The modeling suggests the need for public health surveillance and preparedness in the aftermath of future disasters. PMID:28520740

A probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Figueiredo, Rui; Martina, Mario; Stephenson, David; Youngman, Benjamin

2017-04-01

Economic losses due to natural hazards have shown an upward trend since 1980, which is expected to continue. Recent years have seen a growing worldwide commitment towards the reduction of disaster losses. This requires effective management of disaster risk at all levels, a part of which involves reducing financial vulnerability to disasters ex-ante, ensuring that necessary resources will be available following such events. One way to achieve this is through risk transfer instruments. These can be based on different types of triggers, which determine the conditions under which payouts are made after an event. This study focuses on parametric triggers, where payouts are determined by the occurrence of an event exceeding specified physical parameters at a given location, or at multiple locations, or over a region. This type of product offers a number of important advantages, and its adoption is increasing. The main drawback of parametric triggers is their susceptibility to basis risk, which arises when there is a mismatch between triggered payouts and the occurrence of loss events. This is unavoidable in said programmes, as their calibration is based on models containing a number of different sources of uncertainty. Thus, a deterministic definition of the loss event triggering parameters appears flawed. However, often for simplicity, this is the way in which most parametric models tend to be developed. This study therefore presents an innovative probabilistic strategy for parametric catastrophe insurance. It is advantageous as it recognizes uncertainties and minimizes basis risk while maintaining a simple and transparent procedure. A logistic regression model is constructed here to represent the occurrence of loss events based on certain loss index variables, obtained through the transformation of input environmental variables. Flood-related losses due to rainfall are studied. The resulting model is able, for any given day, to issue probabilities of occurrence of loss

Usages des TIC et rapports a l’incertitude en situation de catastrophes naturelles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire Brossaud

2008-11-01

Full Text Available Cet article montre comment des professionnels et des sinistrés qui ont été confrontés à des catastrophes naturelles sur trois territoires distincts - la tempête à Limoges en 1999, les inondations à Abbeville (2001 et à Bourg-en-Bresse (2005 - ont construit une histoire commune du risque au moyen des technologies de l’information et de la communication (TIC : Internet, téléphone portable, bases de données, outils de travail partagés, etc. Les usages des TIC sont d’abord resitués concrètement avant, pendant et après les événements dans un contexte historique où les sciences et techniques sont de plus en plus sollicitées pour réduire les incertitudes liées aux menaces sanitaires et écologiques. On voit ensuite s’élaborer une culture du risque sur la base de compétences socio-cognitives et relationnelles particulières face aux événements et à leur prise en charge technologique. Nous examinons en dernier ressort le rôle des TIC dans l’apprentissage d’une argumentation et d’une délibération collective sur les catastrophes, notamment grâce à la mise en place d’outils dédiés à l’étude sur le site http://www.technorisque.net.This article shows how professionnals and disaster victims involved in natural catastrophes in three different areas - Limoges storm in 1999, Abbeville and Bourg-en-Bresse floods in 2001 and 2005 – built a commun risk story with Information and communication technologies (ICT : Internet, mobiles, data bases, groupware, etc. At first, ICT uses are concretely approached before, during and after the events in a historic context where sciences and technology are growing up to reduce uncertainties of medical and ecological threats. Then, in the second part of this article, a risk culture is supported by socio-cognitive and relationnal competences towards events and their technological holding. At last, we examine ICT place in a collective argumentation and deliberation about the

Protocols of a catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stscherbak, J.

1988-01-01

In unusually frank terms the author, a journalist and epidemiologist, describes the catastrophe of Chernobyl as the 'most pathetic and important' experience of the Soviet people after World War II. Documents, interviews and statements of persons concerned trace the disaster of those days that surpasses imagination and describe how individual persons witnessed the coming true of visions of terror. (orig./HSCH) [de

Cosmic Catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Wheeler, J. Craig

2014-08-01

Preface; 1. Setting the stage: star formation and hydrogen burning in single stars; 2. Stellar death: the inexorable grip of gravity; 3. Dancing with stars: binary stellar evolution; 4. Accretion disks: flat stars; 5. White Dwarfs: quantum dots; 6. Supernovae: stellar catastrophes; 7. Supernova 1987A: lessons and enigmas; 8. Neutron stars: atoms with attitude; 9. Black holes in theory: into the abyss; 10. Black holes in fact: exploring the reality; 11. Gamma-ray bursts, black holes and the universe: long, long ago and far, far away; 12. Supernovae and the universe; 13. Worm holes and time machines: tunnels in space and time; 14. Beyond: the frontiers; Index.

Concrete ensemble Kalman filters with rigorous catastrophic filter divergence.

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, David; Majda, Andrew J; Tong, Xin T

2015-08-25

The ensemble Kalman filter and ensemble square root filters are data assimilation methods used to combine high-dimensional, nonlinear dynamical models with observed data. Ensemble methods are indispensable tools in science and engineering and have enjoyed great success in geophysical sciences, because they allow for computationally cheap low-ensemble-state approximation for extremely high-dimensional turbulent forecast models. From a theoretical perspective, the dynamical properties of these methods are poorly understood. One of the central mysteries is the numerical phenomenon known as catastrophic filter divergence, whereby ensemble-state estimates explode to machine infinity, despite the true state remaining in a bounded region. In this article we provide a breakthrough insight into the phenomenon, by introducing a simple and natural forecast model that transparently exhibits catastrophic filter divergence under all ensemble methods and a large set of initializations. For this model, catastrophic filter divergence is not an artifact of numerical instability, but rather a true dynamical property of the filter. The divergence is not only validated numerically but also proven rigorously. The model cleanly illustrates mechanisms that give rise to catastrophic divergence and confirms intuitive accounts of the phenomena given in past literature.

Changing Weather Extremes Call for Early Warning of Potential for Catastrophic Fire

Science.gov (United States)

Boer, Matthias M.; Nolan, Rachael H.; Resco De Dios, Víctor; Clarke, Hamish; Price, Owen F.; Bradstock, Ross A.

2017-12-01

Changing frequencies of extreme weather events and shifting fire seasons call for enhanced capability to forecast where and when forested landscapes switch from a nonflammable (i.e., wet fuel) state to the highly flammable (i.e., dry fuel) state required for catastrophic forest fires. Current forest fire danger indices used in Europe, North America, and Australia rate potential fire behavior by combining numerical indices of fuel moisture content, potential rate of fire spread, and fire intensity. These numerical rating systems lack the physical basis required to reliably quantify forest flammability outside the environments of their development or under novel climate conditions. Here, we argue that exceedance of critical forest flammability thresholds is a prerequisite for major forest fires and therefore early warning systems should be based on a reliable prediction of fuel moisture content plus a regionally calibrated model of how forest fire activity responds to variation in fuel moisture content. We demonstrate the potential of this approach through a case study in Portugal. We use a physically based fuel moisture model with historical weather and fire records to identify critical fuel moisture thresholds for forest fire activity and then show that the catastrophic June 2017 forest fires in central Portugal erupted shortly after fuels in the region dried out to historically unprecedented levels.

Fukushinobyl, the impossible catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boceno, Laurent

2012-01-01

With the emergence of variety of health and environmental crisis or catastrophes (Seveso, Bhopal, Chernobyl, AIDS, contaminated blood, mad cow, influenzas), the author proposes thoughts about the fact that it seems we are not in the era of industrial societies any longer, but in that of societies of risk. He more particularly focuses on Chernobyl and Fukushima to analyse how a social framework is built up to integrate forms of institutionalisation of multifaceted vulnerability, these institutional logics becoming latent social pathologies. In this respect, he more particularly discusses the catastrophic share of nuclear. He shows how what can be considered as a risk is socialised, dissimulated by priority, and then addresses the management of consequences of Chernobyl and how it is used to address the Japanese present situation. He notably outlines a kind of collusion between the WHO and the IAEA about nuclear issues. In his respect, he recalls a statement made by the WHO saying that, from a mental health point of view, the most satisfying solution for the future of pacific uses of nuclear energy would be the emergence of a new generation who would have learned to cope with ignorance and uncertainty

Dynamical systems V bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory

CERN Document Server

1994-01-01

Bifurcation theory and catastrophe theory are two of the best known areas within the field of dynamical systems. Both are studies of smooth systems, focusing on properties that seem to be manifestly non-smooth. Bifurcation theory is concerned with the sudden changes that occur in a system when one or more parameters are varied. Examples of such are familiar to students of differential equations, from phase portraits. Moreover, understanding the bifurcations of the differential equations that describe real physical systems provides important information about the behavior of the systems. Catastrophe theory became quite famous during the 1970's, mostly because of the sensation caused by the usually less than rigorous applications of its principal ideas to "hot topics", such as the characterization of personalities and the difference between a "genius" and a "maniac". Catastrophe theory is accurately described as singularity theory and its (genuine) applications. The authors of this book, the first printing of w...

Effects of Cognitive-Behavioral Therapy (CBT) on Brain Connectivity Supporting Catastrophizing in Fibromyalgia.

Science.gov (United States)

Lazaridou, Asimina; Kim, Jieun; Cahalan, Christine M; Loggia, Marco L; Franceschelli, Olivia; Berna, Chantal; Schur, Peter; Napadow, Vitaly; Edwards, Robert R

2017-03-01

Fibromyalgia (FM) is a chronic, common pain disorder characterized by hyperalgesia. A key mechanism by which cognitive-behavioral therapy (CBT) fosters improvement in pain outcomes is via reductions in hyperalgesia and pain-related catastrophizing, a dysfunctional set of cognitive-emotional processes. However, the neural underpinnings of these CBT effects are unclear. Our aim was to assess CBT's effects on the brain circuitry underlying hyperalgesia in FM patients, and to explore the role of treatment-associated reduction in catastrophizing as a contributor to normalization of pain-relevant brain circuitry and clinical improvement. In total, 16 high-catastrophizing FM patients were enrolled in the study and randomized to 4 weeks of individual treatment with either CBT or a Fibromyalgia Education (control) condition. Resting state functional magnetic resonance imaging scans evaluated functional connectivity between key pain-processing brain regions at baseline and posttreatment. Clinical outcomes were assessed at baseline, posttreatment, and 6-month follow-up. Catastrophizing correlated with increased resting state functional connectivity between S1 and anterior insula. The CBT group showed larger reductions (compared with the education group) in catastrophizing at posttreatment (PCBT produced significant reductions in both pain and catastrophizing at the 6-month follow-up (PCBT group also showed reduced resting state connectivity between S1 and anterior/medial insula at posttreatment; these reductions in resting state connectivity were associated with concurrent treatment-related reductions in catastrophizing. The results add to the growing support for the clinically important associations between S1-insula connectivity, clinical pain, and catastrophizing, and suggest that CBT may, in part via reductions in catastrophizing, help to normalize pain-related brain responses in FM.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome mimicking a malignant pancreatic tumour--a case report

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wissen, S.; Bastiaansen, B. A. J.; Stroobants, A. K.; van den Dool, E. J.; Idu, M. M.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Stroes, E. S. G.

2008-01-01

The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is characterised by rapid onset thromboses, often resistant to conventional anticoagulant treatment, and resulting in life threatening multiple organ dysfunction. The diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome may be difficult, predominantly due to

The Effect of Material and Side Walls on Hull Deflection during a Blast Event

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-13

ARL-CR-0822 ● DEC 2017 US Army Research Laboratory The Effect of Material and Side Walls on Hull Deflection during a Blast Event...Army Research Laboratory The Effect of Material and Side Walls on Hull Deflection during a Blast Event prepared by Danielle Abell SURVICE...Walls on Hull Deflection during a Blast Event 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER W911QX-16-D-0014 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S

Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks

Science.gov (United States)

Clune, Jeff

2017-01-01

A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs), which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules). While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate) learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1) induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning), which 2) produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3) yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting. PMID:29145413

Diffusion-based neuromodulation can eliminate catastrophic forgetting in simple neural networks.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roby Velez

Full Text Available A long-term goal of AI is to produce agents that can learn a diversity of skills throughout their lifetimes and continuously improve those skills via experience. A longstanding obstacle towards that goal is catastrophic forgetting, which is when learning new information erases previously learned information. Catastrophic forgetting occurs in artificial neural networks (ANNs, which have fueled most recent advances in AI. A recent paper proposed that catastrophic forgetting in ANNs can be reduced by promoting modularity, which can limit forgetting by isolating task information to specific clusters of nodes and connections (functional modules. While the prior work did show that modular ANNs suffered less from catastrophic forgetting, it was not able to produce ANNs that possessed task-specific functional modules, thereby leaving the main theory regarding modularity and forgetting untested. We introduce diffusion-based neuromodulation, which simulates the release of diffusing, neuromodulatory chemicals within an ANN that can modulate (i.e. up or down regulate learning in a spatial region. On the simple diagnostic problem from the prior work, diffusion-based neuromodulation 1 induces task-specific learning in groups of nodes and connections (task-specific localized learning, which 2 produces functional modules for each subtask, and 3 yields higher performance by eliminating catastrophic forgetting. Overall, our results suggest that diffusion-based neuromodulation promotes task-specific localized learning and functional modularity, which can help solve the challenging, but important problem of catastrophic forgetting.

Catastrophes in nature and society mathematical modeling of complex systems

CERN Document Server

Khlebopros, Rem G; Fet, Abram I

2007-01-01

Many people are concerned about crises leading to disasters in nature, in social and economic life. The book offers a popular account of the causative mechanisms of critical states and breakdown in a broad range of natural and cultural systems - which obey the same laws - and thus makes the reader aware of the origin of catastrophic events and the ways to avoid and mitigate their negative consequences. The authors apply a single mathematical approach to investigate the revolt of cancer cells that destroy living organisms and population outbreaks that upset natural ecosystems, the balance between biosphere and global climate interfered lately by industry, the driving mechanisms of market and related economic and social phenomena, as well as the electoral system the proper use of which is an arduous accomplishment of democracy.

Lupus-Negative Libman-Sacks Endocarditis Complicated by Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Murtaza, Ghulam; Iskandar, Joy; Humphrey, Tara; Adhikari, Sujeen; Kuruvilla, Aneesh

2017-04-01

Libman-Sacks endocarditis is characterized by sterile and verrucous lesions that predominantly affect the aortic and mitral valves. In most cases, patients do not have significant valvular dysfunction. However, patients with significant valvular dysfunction may present with serious complications such as cardiac failure, arrhythmias, and thromboembolic events. Recently, association of Libman-Sacks endocarditis with antiphospholipid antibody syndrome (APS) has been made. APS is most commonly defined by venous and arterial thrombosis, recurrent pregnancy loss, and thrombocytopenia. While the syndrome can be a primary syndrome, it is usually secondary to systemic lupus erythematosus. Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) can be a life-threatening presentation of APS and can occur in 1% of patients with antiphospholipid syndrome. We present a very rare case of a young female patient with lupus-negative Libman-Sacks endocarditis complicated by CAPS.

Laboratory tests of catastrophic disruption of rotating bodies

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, A. J. W.; Burchell, M. J.

2017-11-01

The results of catastrophic disruption experiments on static and rotating targets are reported. The experiments used cement spheres of diameter 10 cm as the targets. Impacts were by mm sized stainless steel spheres at speeds of between 1 and 7.75 km s-1. Energy densities (Q) in the targets ranged from 7 to 2613 J kg-1. The experiments covered both the cratering and catastrophic disruption regimes. For static, i.e. non-rotating targets the critical energy density for disruption (Q*, the value of Q when the largest surviving target fragment has a mass equal to one half of the pre-impact target mass) was Q* = 1447 ± 90 J kg-1. For rotating targets (median rotation frequency of 3.44 Hz) we found Q* = 987 ± 349 J kg-1, a reduction of 32% in the mean value. This lower value of Q* for rotating targets was also accompanied by a larger scatter on the data, hence the greater uncertainty. We suggest that in some cases the rotating targets behaved as static targets, i.e. broke up with the same catastrophic disruption threshold, but in other cases the rotation helped the break up causing a lower catastrophic disruption threshold, hence both the lower value of Q* and the larger scatter on the data. The fragment mass distributions after impact were similar in both the static and rotating target experiments with similar slopes.

Pricing Zero-Coupon Catastrophe Bonds Using EVT with Doubly Stochastic Poisson Arrivals

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zonggang Ma

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The frequency and severity of climate abnormal change displays an irregular upward cycle as global warming intensifies. Therefore, this paper employs a doubly stochastic Poisson process with Black Derman Toy (BDT intensity to describe the catastrophic characteristics. By using the Property Claim Services (PCS loss index data from 2001 to 2010 provided by the US Insurance Services Office (ISO, the empirical result reveals that the BDT arrival rate process is superior to the nonhomogeneous Poisson and lognormal intensity process due to its smaller RMSE, MAE, MRPE, and U and larger E and d. Secondly, to depict extreme features of catastrophic risks, this paper adopts the Peak Over Threshold (POT in extreme value theory (EVT to characterize the tail characteristics of catastrophic loss distribution. And then the loss distribution is analyzed and assessed using a quantile-quantile (QQ plot to visually check whether the PCS index observations meet the generalized Pareto distribution (GPD assumption. Furthermore, this paper derives a pricing formula for zero-coupon catastrophe bonds with a stochastic interest rate environment and aggregate losses generated by a compound doubly stochastic Poisson process under the forward measure. Finally, simulation results verify pricing model predictions and show how catastrophic risks and interest rate risk affect the prices of zero-coupon catastrophe bonds.

Financing Losses from Catastrophic Risks

Science.gov (United States)

2008-11-01

often held in the form of bonds, the interest on which is subject to corporate income tax , which reduces the net earnings to each insurer’s shareholders...course; it is a basic feature of the corporate income tax . But, as explained above, catastrophe insurance is distinguished from other types of

Doubly Reentrant Cavities Prevent Catastrophic Wetting Transitions on Intrinsically Wetting Surfaces

KAUST Repository

Domingues, Eddy

2017-06-05

Omniphobic surfaces, i.e. which repel all known liquids, have proven of value in applications ranging from membrane distillation to underwater drag reduction. A limitation of currently employed omniphobic surfaces is that they rely on perfluorinated coatings, increasing cost and environmental impact, and preventing applications in harsh environments. There is, thus, a keen interest in rendering conventional materials, such as plastics, omniphobic by micro/nano-texturing rather than via chemical make-up, with notable success having been achieved for silica surfaces with doubly reentrant micropillars. However, we found a critical limitation of microtextures comprising of pillars that they undergo catastrophic wetting transitions (apparent contact angles, θr → 0° from θr > 90°) in the presence of localized physical damages/defects or on immersion in wetting liquids. In response, a doubly reentrant cavity microtexture is introduced, which can prevent catastrophic wetting transitions in the presence of localized structural damage/defects or on immersion in wetting liquids. Remarkably, our silica surfaces with doubly reentrant cavities could exhibited apparent contact angles, θr ≈ 135° for mineral oil, where the intrinsic contact angle, θo ≈ 20°. Further, when immersed in mineral oil or water, doubly reentrant microtextures in silica (θo ≈ 40° for water) were not penetrated even after several days of investigation. Thus, microtextures comprising of doubly reentrant cavities might enable applications of conventional materials without chemical modifications, especially in scenarios that are prone to localized damages or immersion in wetting liquids, e.g. hydrodynamic drag reduction and membrane distillation.

Catastrophizing and Depressive Symptoms as Prospective Predictors of Outcomes Following Total Knee Replacement

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert R Edwards

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Several recent reports suggest that pain-related catastrophizing is a risk factor for poor acute pain outcomes following surgical interventions. However, it has been less clear whether levels of catastrophizing influence longer-term postoperative outcomes. Data were analyzed from a relatively small number (n=43 of patients who underwent total knee replacement and were followed for 12 months after their surgery. Previous research has suggested that high levels of both catastrophizing and depression are associated with elevated acute postoperative pain complaints among patients undergoing knee surgery. In this sample, catastrophizing and depression at each of the assessment points were studied as prospective predictors of pain (both global pain ratings and pain at night at the subsequent assessment point over the course of one year. The predictive patterns differed somewhat across measures of pain reporting; depressive symptoms were unique predictors of greater global pain complaints, while catastrophizing was a specific and unique predictor of elevated nighttime pain. While surgical outcomes following total knee replacement are, on average, quite good, a significant minority of patients continue to experience long-term pain. The present findings suggest that high levels of catastrophizing and depression may promote enhanced pain levels, indicating that interventions designed to reduce catastrophizing and depressive symptoms may have the potential to further improve joint replacement outcomes.

Thermal catastrophe in the plasma sheet boundary layer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.A.; Goertz, C.K.; Grossmann, W.

1986-01-01

This letter presents a first step towards a substorm model including particle heating and transport in the plasma sheet boundary layer (PSBL). The heating mechanism discussed is resonant absorption of Alfven waves. For some assumed MHD perturbation incident from the tail lobes onto the plasma sheet, the local heating rate in the PSBL has the form of a resonance function of the one-fluid plasma temperature. Balancing the local heating by convective transport of the heated plasma toward the central plasma sheet, and ''equation of state'' is found for the steady-state PSBL whose solution has the form of a mathematical catastrophe: at a critical value of a parameter containing the incident power flux, the local density, and the convection velocity, the equilibrium temperature jumps discontinuously. Associating this temperature increase with the abrupt onset of the substorm expansion phase, the catastrophe model indicates at least three ways in which the onset may be triggered. Several other consequences related to substorm dynamics are suggested by the simple catastrophe model

Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 1. Building and sustaining capacity in laboratory networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Magnuson, Matthew; Ernst, Hiba; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Smith, Terry; Hedrick, Elizabeth

2014-11-01

Catastrophic incidents, such as natural disasters, terrorist attacks, and industrial accidents, can occur suddenly and have high impact. However, they often occur at such a low frequency and in unpredictable locations that planning for the management of the consequences of a catastrophe can be difficult. For those catastrophes that result in the release of contaminants, the ability to analyze environmental samples is critical and contributes to the resilience of affected communities. Analyses of environmental samples are needed to make appropriate decisions about the course of action to restore the area affected by the contamination. Environmental samples range from soil, water, and air to vegetation, building materials, and debris. In addition, processes used to decontaminate any of these matrices may also generate wastewater and other materials that require analyses to determine the best course for proper disposal. This paper summarizes activities and programs the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) has implemented to ensure capability and capacity for the analysis of contaminated environmental samples following catastrophic incidents. USEPA's focus has been on building capability for a wide variety of contaminant classes and on ensuring national laboratory capacity for potential surges in the numbers of samples that could quickly exhaust the resources of local communities. USEPA's efforts have been designed to ensure a strong and resilient laboratory infrastructure in the United States to support communities as they respond to contamination incidents of any magnitude. The efforts include not only addressing technical issues related to the best-available methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants, but also include addressing the challenges of coordination and administration of an efficient and effective response. Laboratory networks designed for responding to large scale contamination incidents can be sustained by applying

Forecasting giant, catastrophic slope collapse: lessons from Vajont, Northern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Kilburn, Christopher R. J.; Petley, David N.

2003-08-01

Rapid, giant landslides, or sturzstroms, are among the most powerful natural hazards on Earth. They have minimum volumes of ˜10 6-10 7 m 3 and, normally preceded by prolonged intervals of accelerating creep, are produced by catastrophic and deep-seated slope collapse (loads ˜1-10 MPa). Conventional analyses attribute rapid collapse to unusual mechanisms, such as the vaporization of ground water during sliding. Here, catastrophic collapse is related to self-accelerating rock fracture, common in crustal rocks at loads ˜1-10 MPa and readily catalysed by circulating fluids. Fracturing produces an abrupt drop in resisting stress. Measured stress drops in crustal rock account for minimum sturzstrom volumes and rapid collapse accelerations. Fracturing also provides a physical basis for quantitatively forecasting catastrophic slope failure.

What Should Be the Relationship between the National Guard and United States Northern Command in Civil Support Operations Following Catastrophic Events?

Science.gov (United States)

2006-09-01

catastrophe such as the New Madrid earthquake or pandemic influenza scenarios that required a standard military response across the states, this construct...the next crisis. D. LITERATURE REVIEW USNORTHCOM is a relatively new organization so there is not an abundance of existing literature that...Brigadier General (Retired) Raymond E. Bell proposes making a National Guard general officer the commander of USNORTHCOM. He also suggests the National

Can Concentration - Discharge Relationships Diagnose Material Source During Extreme Events?

Science.gov (United States)

Karwan, D. L.; Godsey, S.; Rose, L.

2017-12-01

Floods can carry >90% of the basin material exported in a given year as well as alter flow pathways and material sources. In turn, sediment and solute fluxes can increase flood damages and negatively impact water quality and integrate physical and chemical weathering of landscapes and channels. Concentration-discharge (C-Q) relationships are used to both describe export patterns as well as compute them. Metrics for describing C-Q patterns and inferring their controls are vulnerable to infrequent sampling that affects how C-Q relationships are interpolated and interpreted. C-Q relationships are typically evaluated from multiple samples, but because hydrological extremes are rare, data are often unavailable for extreme events. Because solute and sediment C-Q relationships likely respond to changes in hydrologic extremes in different ways, there is a pressing need to define their behavior under extreme conditions, including how to properly sample to capture these patterns. In the absence of such knowledge, improving load estimates in extreme floods will likely remain difficult. Here we explore the use of C-Q relationships to determine when an event alters a watershed system such that it enters a new material source/transport regime. We focus on watersheds with sediment and discharge time series include low-frequency and/or extreme events. For example, we compare solute and sediment patterns in White Clay Creek in southeastern Pennsylvania across a range of flows inclusive of multiple hurricanes for which we have ample ancillary hydrochemical data. TSS is consistently mobilized during high flow events, even during extreme floods associated with hurricanes, and sediment fingerprinting indicates different sediment sources, including in-channel remobilization and landscape erosion, are active at different times. In other words, TSS mobilization in C-Q space is not sensitive to the source of material being mobilized. Unlike sediments, weathering solutes in this watershed

Catastrophizing and perceived injustice: risk factors for the transition to chronicity after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Sullivan, Michael J L; Adams, Heather; Martel, Marc-Olivier; Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy

2011-12-01

The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. This article focuses on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. Research has shown that psychological variables play a role in determining the trajectory of recovery after whiplash injury. This article will focus on two psychological variables that have been shown to impact on recovery trajectories after whiplash injury; namely pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice. The article will summarize research that has supported the role of pain catastrophizing and perceived injustice as risk factors for problematic recovery after whiplash injury. Several investigations have shown that measures of catastrophizing and perceived injustice prospectively predict problematic trajectories of recovery after whiplash injury. Basic research points to the potential roles of expectancies, attention, coping and endogenous opioid dysregulation as possible avenues through which catastrophizing might heighten the probability of the persistence of pain after whiplash injury. Although research has yet to systematically address the mechanisms by which perceived injustice might contribute to prolonged disability in individuals with whiplash injuries, there are grounds for suggesting the potential contributions of catastrophizing, pain behavior and anger. A challenge for future research will be the development and evaluation of risk factor-targeted interventions aimed at reducing catastrophizing and perceived injustice to improve recovery trajectories after whiplash injury.

Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by Typhoon Talas

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki; Hiraishi, Narumi; Matsuzawa, Makoto

2013-11-01

Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-lower Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on 1-m DEMs based on airborne laser scanner surveys, showed that all landslides had small scarps near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarps and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 5% to 21%. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarps at their heads beforehand. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily on wedge-shaped discontinuities in a gravitationally deformed rock body. Most of the faults were undulatory and were probably thrust faults that formed during accretion. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were observed to have preceded one landslide.

Complexities, Catastrophes and Cities: Emergency Dynamics in Varying Scenarios and Urban Topologies

Science.gov (United States)

Narzisi, Giuseppe; Mysore, Venkatesh; Byeon, Jeewoong; Mishra, Bud

Complex Systems are often characterized by agents capable of interacting with each other dynamically, often in non-linear and non-intuitive ways. Trying to characterize their dynamics often results in partial differential equations that are difficult, if not impossible, to solve. A large city or a city-state is an example of such an evolving and self-organizing complex environment that efficiently adapts to different and numerous incremental changes to its social, cultural and technological infrastructure [1]. One powerful technique for analyzing such complex systems is Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) [9], which has seen an increasing number of applications in social science, economics and also biology. The agent-based paradigm facilitates easier transfer of domain specific knowledge into a model. ABM provides a natural way to describe systems in which the overall dynamics can be described as the result of the behavior of populations of autonomous components: agents, with a fixed set of rules based on local information and possible central control. As part of the NYU Center for Catastrophe Preparedness and Response (CCPR1), we have been exploring how ABM can serve as a powerful simulation technique for analyzing large-scale urban disasters. The central problem in Disaster Management is that it is not immediately apparent whether the current emergency plans are robust against such sudden, rare and punctuated catastrophic events.

Catastrophizing and Causal Beliefs in Whiplash

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Buitenhuis, J.; de Jong, P. J.; Jaspers, J. P. C.; Groothoff, J. W.

2008-01-01

Study Design. Prospective cohort study. Objective. This study investigates the role of pain catastrophizing and causal beliefs with regard to severity and persistence of neck complaints after motor vehicle accidents. Summary of Background Data. In previous research on low back pain, somatoform

Nonlinear physics: Catastrophe, chaos and complexity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arecchi, F.T.

1992-01-01

Currently in the world of physics, there is open debate on the role of the three C's - catastrophe, chaos and complexity. Seen as new ideas or paradigms, incapable of being harmonized within the realm of traditional physics, these terms seem to be creating turmoil in the classical physics establishment whose foundations date back to the early seventeenth century. This paper first defines catastrophe, chaos and complexity and shows how these terms are all connected to nonlinear dynamics and how they have long since been present within scientific treatises. It also evidences the relationship of the three C's with the concept of organization, inappropriately called self-organization, and with recognition and decisional strategies of cognitive systems. Relevant to natural science, the development of these considerations is necessitating the re-examination of the role and capabilities of human knowledge and a return to inter-disciplinary scientific-philosophical debate

Materials effects and design implications of disruptions and off-normal events in ITER

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassanein, A.; Federici, G.; Konkashbaev, I.; Zhitlukhin, A.; Litunovsky, V.

1997-01-01

Damage to plasma-facing components (PFCs) and structural materials during abnormal plasma behavior such as hard disruptions, edge-localized modes (ELMs), and vertical displacement events (VDEs) is considered a serious life-limiting concern for these components. The PFCs in the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER), such as the divertor, limiter, and parts of the first wall, will be subjected to high energy deposition during these plasma instabilities. High erosion losses on material surfaces, high temperature rise in structural materials (particularly at the bonding interface), and high heat flux levels and possible burnout of the coolant tubes are critical constraints that severely limit component lifetime and therefore degrade reactor performance, safety, and economics. Recently developed computer models and simulation experiments are being used to evaluate various damage to PFCs during the abnormal events. The design implications of plasma-facing and nearby components are discussed, and recommendations are made to mitigate the effects of these events

Catastrophic floods may pave the way for increased genetic diversity in endemic artesian spring snail populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica Worthington Wilmer

Full Text Available The role of disturbance in the promotion of biological heterogeneity is widely recognised and occurs at a variety of ecological and evolutionary scales. However, within species, the impact of disturbances that decimate populations are neither predicted nor known to result in conditions that promote genetic diversity. Directly examining the population genetic consequences of catastrophic disturbances however, is rarely possible, as it requires both longitudinal genetic data sets and serendipitous timing. Our long-term study of the endemic aquatic invertebrates of the artesian spring ecosystem of arid central Australia has presented such an opportunity. Here we show a catastrophic flood event, which caused a near total population crash in an aquatic snail species (Fonscochlea accepta endemic to this ecosystem, may have led to enhanced levels of within species genetic diversity. Analyses of individuals sampled and genotyped from the same springs sampled both pre (1988-1990 and post (1995, 2002-2006 a devastating flood event in 1992, revealed significantly higher allelic richness, reduced temporal population structuring and greater effective population sizes in nearly all post flood populations. Our results suggest that the response of individual species to disturbance and severe population bottlenecks is likely to be highly idiosyncratic and may depend on both their ecology (whether they are resilient or resistant to disturbance and the stability of the environmental conditions (i.e. frequency and intensity of disturbances in which they have evolved.

Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Communications en cas de catastrophe faisant appel aux TIC pour les collectivités vulnérables des Caraïbes. De récents événements survenus dans les Caraïbes ont mis en relief les insuffisances des mesures régionales et nationales de préparation aux catastrophes. On manque particulièrement de systèmes d'alerte ...

Catastrophic phase transitions and early warnings in a spatial ecological model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernández, A; Fort, H

2009-01-01

Gradual changes in exploitation, nutrient loading, etc produce shifts between alternative stable states (ASS) in ecosystems which, quite often, are not smooth but abrupt or catastrophic. Early warnings of such catastrophic regime shifts are fundamental for designing management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study the spatial version of a popular ecological model, involving a logistically growing single species subject to exploitation, which is known to exhibit ASS. Spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a carrying capacity parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells is included in the form of diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics—like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness—may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyse how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. We find that possible remedial procedures, which can be followed after these early signals, become more effective as the diffusion becomes lower. Finally, we comment on similarities of and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid–vapour change of state for a fluid like water

Strategic reasoning and bargaining in catastrophic climate change games

Science.gov (United States)

Verendel, Vilhelm; Johansson, Daniel J. A.; Lindgren, Kristian

2016-03-01

Two decades of international negotiations show that agreeing on emission levels for climate change mitigation is a hard challenge. However, if early warning signals were to show an upcoming tipping point with catastrophic damage, theory and experiments suggest this could simplify collective action to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. At the actual threshold, no country would have a free-ride incentive to increase emissions over the tipping point, but it remains for countries to negotiate their emission levels to reach these agreements. We model agents bargaining for emission levels using strategic reasoning to predict emission bids by others and ask how this affects the possibility of reaching agreements that avoid catastrophic damage. It is known that policy elites often use a higher degree of strategic reasoning, and in our model this increases the risk for climate catastrophe. Moreover, some forms of higher strategic reasoning make agreements to reduce greenhouse gases unstable. We use empirically informed levels of strategic reasoning when simulating the model.

Unusual events in the use of radioactive material at medical applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Czarwinski, R.

2002-01-01

In the Federal Republic of Germany unusual events in the use of radioactive materials and in the operation of accelerators outside the nuclear sector are evaluated centrally and published annually. At that evaluation it can be distinguished between the medical and non-medical application of ionising radiation. Around 3000 user of radioactive materials are registered in medicine including research and teaching. That means approximately 25% of all users in Germany. Firstly an overview on the number of unusual events in the last ten years is given for medical applications like afterloading, gamma irradiation, nuclear medicine, radiation sources and accelerators. The analysis of the incidents in the considered medical areas resulted in two categories-human error and technical break down. The main causes for the incidents which could be analysed are presented in the paper. Additionally the radiation exposures resulting from the incidents are considered. The analysis of these unusual events enables in dependence of the known information lessons learned to avoid similar errors. This feedback will be offered. (Author)

Status of transport events involving radioactive materials which occurred in France between 1999 and 2011

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2013-01-01

This report presents transport events involving radioactive materials, occurred on French territory from 1999 to 2011, listed in the IRSN's database. 1,304 events have been recorded. For each of them, many parameters have been collected and analysed from information listed in the notifications and reports of the events sent by users (type of event, purpose, package design, level on the INES scale...). The numbers of events notified in 2010 and 2011 are slightly higher than the average of 100 events per year. The two main causes of notification concern documentation errors (in transport documents or labeling) and handling mishaps. The downward trend of frequency of package or conveyance contaminations has been confirmed. A short description of the outstanding events occurred in 2010 and 2011 is proposed. This synthesis also gives an outline of the actions recommended by IRSN to avoid recurrence of the notified events and improve the safety of the transports of radioactive materials

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome and pregnancy. Clinical report.

Science.gov (United States)

Khizroeva, J; Bitsadze, V; Makatsariya, A

2018-01-08

We have observed the development of a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) in a pregnant woman hospitalized at 28 weeks of gestation with a severe preeclampsia. On the same day, an eclampsia attack developed, and an emergency surgical delivery was performed. On the third day, multiorgan failure developed. Examination showed a persistent circulation of lupus anticoagulant, high level of antibodies to cardiolipin, b2-glycoprotein I, and prothrombin. The usual diagnosis of the severe preeclampsia masked a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, exacerbated by the coincident presence of several types of antiphospholipid antibodies. The first pregnancy resulted in a premature birth at 25 weeks, possibly also due to the circulation of antiphospholipid antibodies. The trigger of the catastrophic form development was the pregnancy itself, surgical intervention, and hyperhomocysteinemia. CAPS is the most severe form of antiphospholipid syndrome, manifested in multiple microthrombosis of microcirculation of vital organs and in the development of multiorgan failure against the background of the high level of antiphospholipid antibodies. CAPS is characterized by renal, cerebral, gastrointestinal, adrenal, ovarian, skin, and other forms of microthrombosis. Thrombosis recurrence is typical. Thrombotic microvasculopathy lies at the heart of multiorgan failure and manifests clinically in central nervous system lesions, adrenal insufficiency, and ARDS development. CAPS is a life-threatening condition, therefore, requires an urgent treatment. Optimal treatment of CAPS is not developed. CAPS represent a general medical multidisciplinary problem.

Catastrophic subsidence: An environmental hazard, shelby county, Alabama

Science.gov (United States)

Lamoreaux, Philip E.; Newton, J. G.

1986-03-01

Induced sinkholes (catastrophic subsidence) are those caused or accelerated by human activities These sinkholes commonly result from a water level decline due to pumpage Construction activities in a cone of depression greatly increases the likelihood of sinkhole occurrence Almost all occur where cavities develop in unconsolidated deposits overlying solution openings in carbonate rocks. Triggering mechanisms resulting from water level declines are (1) loss of buoyant support of the water, (2) increased gradient and water velocity, (3) water-level fluctuations, and (4) induced recharge Construction activities triggering sinkhole development include ditching, removing overburden, drilling, movement of heavy equipment, blasting and the diversion and impoundment of drainage Triggering mechanisms include piping, saturation, and loading Induced sinkholes resulting from human water development/management activities are most predictable in a youthful karst area impacted by groundwater withdrawals Shape, depth, and timing of catastrophic subsidence can be predicted in general terms Remote sensing techniques are used in prediction of locations of catastrophic subsidence. This provides a basis for design and relocation of structures such as a gas pipeline, dam, or building Utilization of techniques and a case history of the relocation of a pipeline are described

Dynamic growth of slip surfaces in catastrophic landslides.

Science.gov (United States)

Germanovich, Leonid N; Kim, Sihyun; Puzrin, Alexander M

2016-01-01

This work considers a landslide caused by the shear band that emerges along the potential slip (rupture) surface. The material above the band slides downwards, causing the band to grow along the slope. This growth may first be stable (progressive), but eventually becomes dynamic (catastrophic). The landslide body acquires a finite velocity before it separates from the substrata. The corresponding initial-boundary value problem for a dynamic shear band is formulated within the framework of Palmer & Rice's ( Proc. R. Soc. Lond. A 332 , 527-548. (doi:10.1098/rspa.1973.0040)) approach, which is generalized to the dynamic case. We obtain the exact, closed-form solution for the band velocity and slip rate. This solution assesses when the slope fails owing to a limiting condition near the propagating tip of the shear band. Our results are applicable to both submarine and subaerial landslides of this type. It appears that neglecting dynamic (inertia) effects can lead to a significant underestimation of the slide size, and that the volumes of catastrophic slides can exceed the volumes of progressive slides by nearly a factor of 2. As examples, we consider the Gaviota and Humboldt slides offshore of California, and discuss landslides in normally consolidated sediments and sensitive clays. In particular, it is conceivable that Humboldt slide is unfinished and may still displace a large volume of sediments, which could generate a considerable tsunami. We show that in the case of submarine slides, the effect of water resistance on the shear band dynamics may frequently be limited during the slope failure stage. For a varying slope angle, we formulate a condition of slide cessation.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome in leprosy | Chewoolkar ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is an acute and life threatening variant of antiphospholipid syndrome with a high mortality rate. Many infections are known to be accompanied by the thrombotic manifestations of this syndrome. We came across a patient of leprosy who developed bowel ischaemia secondary to ...

Periodicity in extinction and the problem of catastrophism in the history of life

Science.gov (United States)

Sepkoski, J. J. Jr; Sepkoski JJ, J. r. (Principal Investigator)

1989-01-01

The hypothesis that extinction events have recurred periodically over the last quarter billion years is greatly strengthened by new data on the stratigraphic ranges of marine animal genera. In the interval from the Permian to Recent, these data encompass some 13,000 generic extinctions, providing a more sensitive indicator of species-level extinctions than previously used familial data. Extinction time series computed from the generic data display nine strong peaks that are nearly uniformly spaced at 26 Ma intervals over the last 270 Ma. Most of these peaks correspond to extinction events recognized in more detailed, if limited, biostratigraphic studies. These new data weaken or negate most arguments against periodicity, which have involved criticisms of the taxonomic data base, sampling intervals, chronometric time scales, and statistical methods used in previous analyses. The criticisms are reviewed in some detail and various new calculations and simulations, including one assessing the effects of paraphyletic taxa, are presented. Although the new data strengthen the case for periodicity, they offer little new insight into the deriving mechanism behind the pattern. However, they do suggest that many of the periodic events may not have been catastrophic, occurring instead over several stratigraphic stages or substages.

Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

2010-01-01

The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken place. A

Materials damaging and rupture - Volumes 1-2. General remarks, metallic materials. Non-metallic materials and biomaterials, assemblies and industrial problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clavel, M.; Bompard, P.

2009-01-01

The rupture and damaging of materials and structures is almost always and unwanted events which may have catastrophic consequences. Even if the mechanical failure causes can often be analyzed using a thorough knowledge of materials behaviour, the forecasting and prevention of failures remain difficult. While the macroscopic mechanical behaviour is often the result of average effects at the structure or microstructure scale, the damage is very often the result of the combination of load peaks, of localization effects and of microstructure defects. This book, presented in two volumes, takes stock of the state-of-the-art of the knowledge gained in the understanding and modelling of rupture and damaging phenomena of materials and structure, mostly of metallic type. It gives an outline of the available knowledge for other classes of materials (ceramics, biomaterials, geo-materials..) and for different types of applications (aeronautics, nuclear industry). Finally, it examines the delicate problem, but very important in practice, of the behaviour of assemblies. Content: Vol.1 - physical mechanisms of materials damaging and rupture; rupture mechanics; cyclic plasticity and fatigue crack growth; fatigue crack propagation; environment-induced cracking; contacts and surfaces. Vol.2 - glasses and ceramics; natural environments: soils and rocks; mechanical behaviour of biological solid materials: the human bone; contribution of simulation to the understanding of rupture mechanisms; assemblies damaging and rupture; industrial cases (behaviour of PWR pressure vessel steels, and thermal and mechanical stresses in turbojet engines). (J.S.)

Catastrophic valley fills record large Himalayan earthquakes, Pokhara, Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Stolle, Amelie; Bernhardt, Anne; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2017-12-01

Uncertain timing and magnitudes of past mega-earthquakes continue to confound seismic risk appraisals in the Himalayas. Telltale traces of surface ruptures are rare, while fault trenches document several events at best, so that additional proxies of strong ground motion are needed to complement the paleoseismological record. We study Nepal's Pokhara basin, which has the largest and most extensively dated archive of earthquake-triggered valley fills in the Himalayas. These sediments form a 148-km2 fan that issues from the steep Seti Khola gorge in the Annapurna Massif, invading and plugging 15 tributary valleys with tens of meters of debris, and impounding several lakes. Nearly a dozen new radiocarbon ages corroborate at least three episodes of catastrophic sedimentation on the fan between ∼700 and ∼1700 AD, coinciding with great earthquakes in ∼1100, 1255, and 1344 AD, and emplacing roughly >5 km3 of debris that forms the Pokhara Formation. We offer a first systematic sedimentological study of this formation, revealing four lithofacies characterized by thick sequences of mid-fan fluvial conglomerates, debris-flow beds, and fan-marginal slackwater deposits. New geochemical provenance analyses reveal that these upstream dipping deposits of Higher Himalayan origin contain lenses of locally derived river clasts that mark time gaps between at least three major sediment pulses that buried different parts of the fan. The spatial pattern of 14C dates across the fan and the provenance data are key to distinguishing these individual sediment pulses, as these are not evident from their sedimentology alone. Our study demonstrates how geomorphic and sedimentary evidence of catastrophic valley infill can help to independently verify and augment paleoseismological fault-trench records of great Himalayan earthquakes, while offering unparalleled insights into their long-term geomorphic impacts on major drainage basins.

Erosion and redeposition of divertor and wall materials during abnormal events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hassanein, A.

1990-09-01

High energy deposition to in-vessel components of fusion reactors is expected to occur during abnormal operating conditions. This high energy dump in short times may result in very high surface temperatures and can cause severe erosion as a result of melting and vaporization of these components. One abnormal operating condition results from plasma disruptions where the plasma loses confinement and dumps its energy on reactor components. Another abnormal condition occurs when a neutral beam used in heating the plasma shines through the vacuum vessel to parts of the wall with no plasma present in the chamber. A third abnormal event that results in high energy deposition is caused by the runaway electrons to chamber components following a disruption. The failure of these components under the expected high heat loads can severely limit the operation of the fusion device. The redeposition of the eroded materials from these abnormal events over the first wall and other components may cause additional problems. Such problems are associated with tritium accumulation in the freshly deposited materials, charge exchange sputtering and additional impurity sources, and material compatibility issues

Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Household Impoverishment: a case of NCDs prevalence in Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Mwai

2016-03-01

Full Text Available Introduction and problem: Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs have become one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in Kenya. Their claim on financial and time resources adversely affects household welfare. Health care cost for NCDs in Kenya is predominantly paid by households as OOP. Health expenditure on NCD stands at 6.2% of Total Health Expenditure which is 0.4 % of the total gross domestic product of the country. This expenditure scenario could have implications on household welfare through catastrophic expenditure in Kenya. Most studies done on catastrophic expenditure in Kenya have not looked at the effect of NCD on poverty. Methodology: The paper has investigated the determinants of catastrophic health spending in a household with special focus on the NCDs. It has also investigated the effect of catastrophic expenditure on household welfare.A National household level survey data on expenditure and utilization is used. Controlling for endogeneity, the results revealed that NCDs and communicable diseases contribute significantly to the likelihood of a household incurring catastrophic expenditure. Results: Although all types of sicknesses have negative effects on household welfare, NCDs have more severe impacts on impoverishment. Policy wise, government and development partners should put in place a health financing plan entailing health insurance and resource pooling as a mean towards social protection. Key words:  Non-Communicable Diseases (NCD, Catastrophic Health Expenditure, endogeneity Impoverishment

Analysis of the reliability of quality assurance of welded nuclear pressure vessels with regard to catastrophic failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ostberg, G [Lund Institute of Technology, Dept. of Materials Engineering (Sweden); Klingenstierna, B [FTL, Military Electronics Laboratory, National Defence Research Institute, Stockholm (Sweden); Sjoberg, L [Goteborg Univ., Dept. of Psychology (Sweden)

1976-07-01

The project is described as an analysis of the reliability of quality assurance of welded nuclear pressure vessels with regard to catastrophic failure. Its scope extends both beyond previous statistical evaluations of the risk of catastrophic failure, beyond previous studies of human malfunction, and beyond current studies of probabilistic fracture mechanics. The latter deal only with 'normal' data and 'normal' processes and procedures according to established rules and regulations, where as the present study concerns deficiencies or more or less complete fallacies of normal procedures and processes. Hopefully such events will prove to be rare enough to be characterized as 'unique'; this, in turn, means that the result of the investigation is not a new statistical figure but rather a survey of types and frequencies of errors and error-producing conditions. The emphasis is on the main pressure vessel; related information on the primary circuit is included, only when this can be done without excessive effort or costs. The avenues of approach in terms of technical-academic disciplines are reliability techniques and the psychology of analysis work and control processes.

Optimal design of earth-moving machine elements with cusp catastrophe theory application

Science.gov (United States)

Pitukhin, A. V.; Skobtsov, I. G.

2017-10-01

This paper deals with the optimal design problem solution for the operator of an earth-moving machine with a roll-over protective structure (ROPS) in terms of the catastrophe theory. A brief description of the catastrophe theory is presented, the cusp catastrophe is considered, control parameters are viewed as Gaussian stochastic quantities in the first part of the paper. The statement of optimal design problem is given in the second part of the paper. It includes the choice of the objective function and independent design variables, establishment of system limits. The objective function is determined as mean total cost that includes initial cost and cost of failure according to the cusp catastrophe probability. Algorithm of random search method with an interval reduction subject to side and functional constraints is given in the last part of the paper. The way of optimal design problem solution can be applied to choose rational ROPS parameters, which will increase safety and reduce production and exploitation expenses.

Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Gruber, M.

2008-07-01

The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities. From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets. In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-)insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles), and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions. This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

Precursory landforms and geologic structures of catastrophic landslides induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, M.; Matsushi, Y.; Tsou, C.

2013-12-01

Our experience of catastrophic landslides induced by rainstorms and earthquakes in recent years suggests that many of them are preceded by deep-seated gravitational slope deformation. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation continues slowly and continually and some of them transform into catastrophic failures, which cause devastating damage in wide areas. Some other types, however, do not change into catastrophic failure. Deep-seated gravitational slope deformation that preceded catastrophic failures induced by typhoon Talas 2011 Japan, had been surveyed with airborne laser scanner beforehand, of which high-resolution DEMs gave us an important clue to identify which type of topographic features of gravitational slope deformation is susceptible to catastrophic failure. We found that 26 of 39 deep-seated catastrophic landslides had small scarps along the heads of future landslides. These scarps were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Although the scarps may have been enlarged by degradation, their sizes relative to the whole slopes suggest that minimal slope deformation had occurred in the period immediately before the catastrophic failure. The scarp ratio, defined as the ratio of length of a scarp to that of the whole slope both measured along the slope line, ranged from 1% to 23%. 38% of the landslides with small scarps had scarp ratios less than 4%, and a half less than 8%. This fact suggests that the gravitational slope deformation preceded catastrophic failure was relatively small and may suggest that those slopes were under critical conditions just before catastrophic failure. The above scarp ratios may be characteristic to accretional complex with undulating, anastomosing thrust faults, which were major sliding surfaces of the typhoon-induced landslides. Eleven of the remaining 13 landslides occurred in landslide scars of previous landslides or occurred as an extension of landslide scars at the lower parts of

From Catastrophizing to Recovery: a pilot study of a single-session treatment for pain catastrophizing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Darnall BD

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Beth D Darnall, John A Sturgeon, Ming-Chih Kao, Jennifer M Hah, Sean C MackeyDivision of Pain Medicine, Stanford Systems Neuroscience and Pain Laboratory, Stanford University School of Medicine, Palo Alto, CA, USABackground: Pain catastrophizing (PC – a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to real or anticipated pain – maintains chronic pain and undermines medical treatments. Standard PC treatment involves multiple sessions of cognitive behavioral therapy. To provide efficient treatment, we developed a single-session, 2-hour class that solely treats PC entitled “From Catastrophizing to Recovery”[FCR].Objectives: To determine 1 feasibility of FCR; 2 participant ratings for acceptability, understandability, satisfaction, and likelihood to use the information learned; and 3 preliminary efficacy of FCR for reducing PC.Design and methods: Uncontrolled prospective pilot trial with a retrospective chart and database review component. Seventy-six patients receiving care at an outpatient pain clinic (the Stanford Pain Management Center attended the class as free treatment and 70 attendees completed and returned an anonymous survey immediately post-class. The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS was administered at class check-in (baseline and at 2, and 4 weeks post-treatment. Within subjects repeated measures analysis of variance (ANOVA with Student's t-test contrasts were used to compare scores across time points.Results: All attendees who completed a baseline PCS were included as study participants (N=57; F=82%; mean age =50.2 years; PCS was completed by 46 participants at week 2 and 35 participants at week 4. Participants had significantly reduced PC at both time points (P<0001 and large effect sizes were found (Cohen's d=0.85 and d=1.15.Conclusion: Preliminary data suggest that FCR is an acceptable and effective treatment for PC. Larger, controlled studies of longer duration are needed to determine durability of response, factors

Validity and Reliability of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Turkish Version

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ayse Kart

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Aim: Importance of catastrophic cognitions is well known for the development and maintance of panic disorder. Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire (CCQ measures thoughts associated with danger and was originally developed by Khawaja (1992. In this study, it is aimed to evaluate the validity and reliability of CCQ- Turkish version. Material and Method: CCQ was administered to 250 patients with panic disorder. Turkish version of CCQ was created by translation, back-translation and pilot assessment. Socio-demographic Data Form and CCQ Turkish version were administered to participants. Reliability of CCQ was analyzed by test-retest correlation, split-half technique, Cronbach%u2019s alpha coefficient. Construct validity was evaluated by factor analysis after the Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin (KMO and Bartlett test had been performed. Principal component analysis and varimax rotation were used for factor analysis. Results: Fifty-five point six percent (n=139 of the participants were female and fourty-four point four percent (n=111 were male. Internal consistency of the questionnaire was calculated 0.920 by Cronbach alpha. In analysis performed by split-half method reliability coefficients of half questionnaire were found as 0.917 and 0.832. Again spearmen-brown coefficient was found as 0.875 by the same analysis. Factor analysis revealed five basic factors. These five factors explained %66.2 of the total variance. Discussion: The results of this study show that the Turkish version of CCQ is a reliable and valid scale.

Robust catastrophe-free space agriculture on Mars

Science.gov (United States)

Yamashita, Masamichi

During the early stage of CELSS research, economy was a selling point of the bio-regenerative life support concept. Until system integration was exercised in detail at mission planing for the International Space Station, the turning point from open system to CELSS was estimated 10 years of operation for 10 crew member as a consensus. Initial investment and operational cost for the 10-10 regenerative system was believed to be cheaper than the integrated amount of consumables for running open system. Any drop-out from recycling loop of materials is counted as “penalty”. Under this context, degree of closure was raised as an index to measure “maturity” of CELSS technology. Once it was found quite difficult to achieve 100 % closure perfect, science merit of CELSS study was redefined as a small scaled model of terrestrial biosphere. Natural ecosystem has huge sink and backyard in its materials loop. They provide a basis for keeping member in the ecology without falling into catastrophe. Low productivity at high biological diversity is a common key feature at the climax phase of ecosystem. Artificial ecosystem on ground relies on “unpaid” backyard function of surrounding biosphere together with strong control for realizing high productivity at less degree of bio-diversity. It should be noted that top criteria in engineering manned space system is robustness and survivability of crew. All other item is secondary, and just better to have. Without verification of catastrophe free, space agriculture will never be implemented for space and stay as a fantasy on ground forever. There is a great gap between ecology and this requirement for manned space system. In order to fill this gap, we should remind how gatherer and hunter was civilized after the agricultural revolution about ten thousand years ago. Planting cereal crop was a great second step in agricultural innovation. Cereal grain can be stored more than one year after its harvest. Food processing and

Population and individual elephant response to a catastrophic fire in Pilanesberg National Park.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leigh-Ann Woolley

Full Text Available In predator-free large herbivore populations, where density-dependent feedbacks occur at the limit where forage resources can no longer support the population, environmental catastrophes may play a significant role in population regulation. The potential role of fire as a stochastic mass-mortality event limiting these populations is poorly understood, so too the behavioural and physiological responses of the affected animals to this type of large disturbance event. During September 2005, a wildfire resulted in mortality of 29 (18% population mortality and injury to 18, African elephants in Pilanesberg National Park, South Africa. We examined movement and herd association patterns of six GPS-collared breeding herds, and evaluated population physiological response through faecal glucocorticoid metabolite (stress levels. We investigated population size, structure and projected growth rates using a simulation model. After an initial flight response post-fire, severely injured breeding herds reduced daily displacement with increased daily variability, reduced home range size, spent more time in non-tourist areas and associated less with other herds. Uninjured, or less severely injured, breeding herds also shifted into non-tourist areas post-fire, but in contrast, increased displacement rate (both mean and variability, did not adjust home range size and formed larger herds post-fire. Adult cow stress hormone levels increased significantly post-fire, whereas juvenile and adult bull stress levels did not change significantly. Most mortality occurred to the juvenile age class causing a change in post-fire population age structure. Projected population growth rate remained unchanged at 6.5% p.a., and at current fecundity levels, the population would reach its previous level three to four years post-fire. The natural mortality patterns seen in elephant populations during stochastic events, such as droughts, follows that of the classic mortality pattern

Damaging Hydrogeological Events: A Procedure for the Assessment of Severity Levels and an Application to Calabria (Southern Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tommaso Caloiero

2014-11-01

Full Text Available A damaging hydrogeological event (DHE is characterized by two components: a rainfall event and a subsequent damage event, which is the result of floods and landslides triggered by rainfall. The characteristics of both events depend on climatic, geomorphological and anthropogenic factors. In this paper, a methodology to classify the severity of DHEs is presented. A chart which considers indicators of both the damage (Dscore and the daily rainfall (Rscore values recorded in the study area is proposed. According to the chart, the events are classified into four types: ordinary events, with low Dscore and Rscore values; extraordinary events, with high Rscore values but low Dscore values; catastrophic events, characterized by non-exceptional rainfall (low Rscore and severe damage (high Dscore; major catastrophic events, obtained by both high Dscore and Rscore values. Using this approach, the 2013 DHE that occurred in Calabria (Italy was classified as an ordinary event, when compared to the previous ones, even though the widespread diffusion of damage data induced the perception of high severity damage. The rainfall that triggered this event confirms the negative trend of heavy daily precipitation detected in Calabria, and the damage can be ascribed more to sub-daily than daily rainfall affecting urbanized flood-prone areas.

Rare event simulation using Monte Carlo methods

CERN Document Server

Rubino, Gerardo

2009-01-01

In a probabilistic model, a rare event is an event with a very small probability of occurrence. The forecasting of rare events is a formidable task but is important in many areas. For instance a catastrophic failure in a transport system or in a nuclear power plant, the failure of an information processing system in a bank, or in the communication network of a group of banks, leading to financial losses. Being able to evaluate the probability of rare events is therefore a critical issue. Monte Carlo Methods, the simulation of corresponding models, are used to analyze rare events. This book sets out to present the mathematical tools available for the efficient simulation of rare events. Importance sampling and splitting are presented along with an exposition of how to apply these tools to a variety of fields ranging from performance and dependability evaluation of complex systems, typically in computer science or in telecommunications, to chemical reaction analysis in biology or particle transport in physics. ...

Study on China’s Earthquake Prediction by Mathematical Analysis and its Application in Catastrophe Insurance

Science.gov (United States)

Jianjun, X.; Bingjie, Y.; Rongji, W.

2018-03-01

The purpose of this paper was to improve catastrophe insurance level. Firstly, earthquake predictions were carried out using mathematical analysis method. Secondly, the foreign catastrophe insurances’ policies and models were compared. Thirdly, the suggestions on catastrophe insurances to China were discussed. The further study should be paid more attention on the earthquake prediction by introducing big data.

Special software for computing the special functions of wave catastrophes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrey S. Kryukovsky

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The method of ordinary differential equations in the context of calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes is considered. Complementary numerical methods and algorithms are described. The paper shows approaches to accelerate such calculations using capabilities of modern computing systems. Methods for calculating the special functions of wave catastrophes are considered in the framework of parallel computing and distributed systems. The paper covers the development process of special software for calculating of special functions, questions of portability, extensibility and interoperability.

Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education; Nakada, Y; Nomoto, K

1978-08-01

Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed.

Gravothermal catastrophe of finite amplitude

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro; Nakada, Yoshikazu; Nomoto, Ken-ichi.

1978-01-01

Development of the gravothermal catastrophe is followed numerically for self-gravitating gas system enclosed by an adiabatic wall, which is isothermal in the initial state. It is found that the final fate of the catastrophe is in two ways depending on the initial perturbations. When the initial perturbation produces a temperature distribution decreasing outward, the contraction proceeds in the central region and the central density increases unlimitedly, as the heat flows outward. When the initial temperature distribution is increasing outward, on the other hand, the central region expands as the heat flows into the central region. Then the density contrast is reduced and finally the system reaches another isothermal configuration with the same energy but with a lower density contrast and a higher entropy. This final configuration is gravothermally stable and may be called a thermal system. In the former case of the unlimited contraction, the final density profile is determined essentially by the density and temperature dependence of the heat conductivity. In the case of a system under the force of the inverse square law, the final density distribution is well approximated by a power law so that the mass contained in the condensed core is relatively small. A possibility of formation of a black hole in stellar systems is also discussed. (author)

Diagnosis and management of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Carmi, Or; Berla, Maya; Shoenfeld, Yehuda; Levy, Yair

2017-04-01

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a rare, life-threatening disease. In 1992, Asherson defined it as a widespread coagulopathy related to the antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). CAPS requires rapid diagnosis and prompt initiation of treatment. Areas covered: This paper discusses all aspects of CAPS, including its pathophysiology, clinical manifestations, diagnostic approaches, differential diagnoses, management and treatment of relapsing CAPS, and its prognosis. To obtain the information used in this review, scientific databases were searched using the key words antiphospholipid antibodies, catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome, hemolytic anemia, lupus anticoagulant, and thrombotic microangiopathic hemolytic anemia. Expert commentary: CAPS is a rare variant of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS). It is characterized by thrombosis in multiple organs and a cytokine storm developing over a short period, with histopathologic evidence of multiple microthromboses, and laboratory confirmation of high aPL titers. This review discusses the diagnostic challenges and current approaches to the treatment of CAPS.

Intestinal malrotation and catastrophic volvulus in infancy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Henry Chong; Pickard, Sarah S; Sridhar, Sunita; Dutta, Sanjeev

2012-07-01

Intestinal malrotation in the newborn is usually diagnosed after signs of intestinal obstruction, such as bilious emesis, and corrected with the Ladd procedure. The objective of this report is to describe the presentation of severe cases of midgut volvulus presenting in infancy, and to discuss the characteristics of these cases. We performed a 7-year review at our institution and present two cases of catastrophic midgut volvulus presenting in the post-neonatal period, ending in death soon after the onset of symptoms. These two patients also had significant laboratory abnormalities compared to patients with more typical presentations resulting in favorable outcomes. Although most cases of intestinal malrotation in infancy can be treated successfully, in some circumstances, patients' symptoms may not be detected early enough for effective treatment, and therefore may result in catastrophic midgut volvulus and death. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Dyadic analysis of child and parent trait and state pain catastrophizing in the process of children's pain communication.

Science.gov (United States)

Birnie, Kathryn A; Chambers, Christine T; Chorney, Jill; Fernandez, Conrad V; McGrath, Patrick J

2016-04-01

When explored separately, child and parent catastrophic thoughts about child pain show robust negative relations with child pain. The objective of this study was to conduct a dyadic analysis to elucidate intrapersonal and interpersonal influences of child and parent pain catastrophizing on aspects of pain communication, including observed behaviours and perceptions of child pain. A community sample of 171 dyads including children aged 8 to 12 years (89 girls) and parents (135 mothers) rated pain catastrophizing (trait and state versions) and child pain intensity and unpleasantness following a cold pressor task. Child pain tolerance was also assessed. Parent-child interactions during the cold pressor task were coded for parent attending, nonattending, and other talk, and child symptom complaints and other talk. Data were analyzed using the actor-partner interdependence model and hierarchical multiple regressions. Children reporting higher state pain catastrophizing had greater symptom complaints regardless of level of parent state pain catastrophizing. Children reporting low state pain catastrophizing had similar high levels of symptom complaints, but only when parents reported high state pain catastrophizing. Higher child and parent state and/or trait pain catastrophizing predicted their own ratings of higher child pain intensity and unpleasantness, with child state pain catastrophizing additionally predicting parent ratings. Higher pain tolerance was predicted by older child age and lower child state pain catastrophizing. These newly identified interpersonal effects highlight the relevance of the social context to children's pain expressions and parent perceptions of child pain. Both child and parent pain catastrophizing warrant consideration when managing child pain.

Unusual events regarding losses and finds of radioactive materials in Germany in the years 1991 to 1997

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barth, I.; Czarwinski, R.

1998-01-01

In Germany safety related events in the use and transportation of radioactive materials as well as in the operation of accelerators are registered completely. Registration and licensing of radioactive sources and the system of notification of the authorities of unusual events are presented. The analysis of these events demonstrates their causation and allows the conclusion on avoidable errors. Especially events like losses and theft of radioactive materials on the one hand and the finds of such sources in public domain on the other hand are analysed in detail. Conclusions (lessons learned) are drawn. (author)

Photometry of Pluto-Charon mutual events and Hirayama family asteroids

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Binzel, R.P.

1988-01-01

Once every 124 years, nature provides earth-bound astronomers with the opportunity to observe occultation and transit phenomena between Pluto and its satellite, Charon. Ground-based observations of these events will allow precise physical parameters for the Pluto-Charon system to be derived which are unlikely to be improved upon until in situ spacecraft observations are obtained. The proposed program will continue to support photometry observations from McDonald Observatory, a critical location in an international Pluto Campaign network. Knowledge of the diameters, masses, densities, and compositions derived from these observations will augment our understanding of Pluto's origin and its context within the problem of solar system formation. A second task will continue to research the evolutionary processes which have occurred in the asteroid belt by measuring the physical properties of specific Hirayama family members. Photoelectric lightcurve observations of Koronis and Themis family members will be used to investigate the individual catastrophic collision events which formed each family. By comparing these properties with results of laboratory and numerical experiments, the outcomes of catastrophic disruptions and collisional evolution may be more precisely determined

Financial catastrophe and poverty impacts of out-of-pocket health payments in Turkey.

Science.gov (United States)

Özgen Narcı, Hacer; Şahin, İsmet; Yıldırım, Hasan Hüseyin

2015-04-01

To determine the prevalence of catastrophic health payments, examine the determinants of catastrophic expenditures, and assess the poverty impact of out-of-pocket (OOP) payments. Data came from the 2004 to 2010 Household Budget Survey. Catastrophic health spending was defined by health payments as percentage of household consumption expenditures and capacity to pay at a set of thresholds. The poverty impact was evaluated by poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP health payments. The percentage of households that catastrophically spent their consumption expenditure and capacity to pay increased from 2004 to 2010, regardless of the threshold used. Households with a share of more than 40% health spending in both consumption expenditure and capacity to pay accounted for less than 1% across years. However, when a series of potential confounders were taken into account, the study found statistically significantly increased risk for the lowest threshold and decreased risk for the highest threshold in 2010 relative to the base year. Household income, size, education, senior and under 5-year-old members, health insurance, disabled members, payment for inpatient care and settlement were also statistically significant predictors of catastrophic health spending. Overall, poverty head counts were below 1%. Poverty gaps reached a maximum of 0.098%, with an overall increase in 2010 compared to 2004. Catastrophe and poverty increased from 2004 to 2010. However, given that the realization of some recent policies will affect the financial burden of OOP payments on households, the findings of this study need to be replicated.

A comparison of catastrophic injury incidence rates by Provincial Rugby Union in South Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Badenhorst, Marelise; Verhagen, Evert A L M; van Mechelen, Willem; Lambert, Michael I; Viljoen, Wayne; Readhead, Clint; Baerecke, Gail; Brown, James C

2017-07-01

To compare catastrophic injury rates between the 14 South African Provincial Rugby Unions. A prospective, population-based study conducted among all South African Unions between 2008-2014. Player numbers in each Union were obtained from South African Rugby's 2013 Census. Catastrophic injuries were analysed from BokSmart's serious injury database. Incidence rates with 95% Confidence Intervals were calculated. Catastrophic injuries (Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries) within Unions were compared statistically, using a Poisson regression with Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) and a 95% confidence level (pUnion ranged from 1.8 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-6.5) to 7.9 (95% CI: 0.0-28.5) per 100000 players per year. The highest incidence rate of permanent outcome Acute Spinal Cord Injuries was reported at 7.1 per 100000 players (95% CI: 0.0-17.6). Compared to this Union, five (n=5/14, 36%) of the Unions had significantly lower incidence rates of Acute Spinal Cord Injuries. Proportionately, three Unions had more Acute Spinal Cord Injuries and three other Unions had more catastrophic Traumatic Brain Injuries. There were significant differences in the catastrophic injury incidence rates amongst the Provincial Unions in South Africa. Future studies should investigate the underlying reasons contributing to these provincial differences. Copyright © 2017 Sports Medicine Australia. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Catastrophe risk data scoping for disaster risk finance in Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Millinship, Ian; Revilla-Romero, Beatriz

2017-04-01

Developing countries across Latin America, Africa, and Asia are some of the most exposed to natural catastrophes in the world. Over the last 20 years, Asia has borne almost half the estimated global economic cost of natural disasters - around 53billion annually. Losses from natural disasters can damage growth and hamper economic development and unlike in developed countries where risk is reallocated through re/insurance, typically these countries rely on budget reallocations and donor assistance in order to attempt to meet financing needs. There is currently an active international dialogue on the need to increase access to disaster risk financing solutions in Asia. The World Bank-GFDRR Disaster Risk Financing and Insurance Program with financial support from the Rockefeller Foundation, is currently working to develop regional options for disaster risk financing for developing countries in Asia. The first stage of this process has been to evaluate available catastrophe data suitable to support the design and implementation of disaster risk financing mechanisms in selected Asian countries. This project was carried out by a consortium of JBA Risk Management, JBA Consulting, ImageCat and Cat Risk Intelligence. The project focuses on investigating potential data sources for fourteen selected countries in Asia, for flood, tropical cyclone, earthquake and drought perils. The project was carried out under four stages. The first phase focused to identify and catalogue live/dynamic hazard data sources such as hazard gauging networks, or earth observations datasets which could be used to inform a parametric trigger. Live data sources were identified that provide credibility, transparency, independence, frequent reporting, consistency and stability. Data were catalogued at regional level, and prioritised at local level for five countries: Bangladesh, Indonesia, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and Viet Nam. The second phase was to identify, catalogue and evaluate catastrophe risk models

Optimism Moderates the Influence of Pain Catastrophizing on Shoulder Pain Outcome: A Longitudinal Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Coronado, Rogelio A; Simon, Corey B; Lentz, Trevor A; Gay, Charles W; Mackie, Lauren N; George, Steven Z

2017-01-01

Study Design Secondary analysis of prospectively collected data. Background An abundance of evidence has highlighted the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on clinical outcomes. Less is known about the interaction of positive psychological resources with these pain-associated distress factors. Objective To assess whether optimism moderates the influence of pain catastrophizing and fear avoidance on 3-month clinical outcomes in patients with shoulder pain. Methods Data from 63 individuals with shoulder pain (mean ± SD age, 38.8 ± 14.9 years; 30 female) were examined. Demographic, psychological, and clinical characteristics were obtained at baseline. Validated measures were used to assess optimism (Life Orientation Test-Revised), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), fear avoidance (Fear-Avoidance Beliefs Questionnaire physical activity subscale), shoulder pain intensity (Brief Pain Inventory), and shoulder function (Pennsylvania Shoulder Score function subscale). Shoulder pain and function were reassessed at 3 months. Regression models assessed the influence of (1) pain catastrophizing and optimism and (2) fear avoidance and optimism. The final multivariable models controlled for factors of age, sex, education, and baseline scores, and included 3-month pain intensity and function as separate dependent variables. Results Shoulder pain (mean difference, -1.6; 95% confidence interval [CI]: -2.1, -1.2) and function (mean difference, 2.4; 95% CI: 0.3, 4.4) improved over 3 months. In multivariable analyses, there was an interaction between pain catastrophizing and optimism (β = 0.19; 95% CI: 0.02, 0.35) for predicting 3-month shoulder function (F = 16.8, R 2 = 0.69, Poptimism lessened the influence of pain catastrophizing on function. There was no evidence of significant moderation of fear-avoidance beliefs for 3-month shoulder pain (P = .090) or function (P = .092). Conclusion Optimism decreased the negative influence of pain

Alternative solutions for public and private catastrophe funding in Austria

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Gruber

2008-07-01

Full Text Available The impacts of natural hazards as well as their frequency of occurrence during the last decades have increased decisively. Therefore, the public as well as the private sector are expected to react to this development by providing sufficient funds, in particular for the improvement of protection measures and an enhanced funding of damage compensation for affected private individuals, corporate and public entities.

From the public stance, the establishment of an appropriate regulatory environment seems to be indispensable. Structural and legal changes should, on the one hand, renew and improve the current distribution system of public catastrophe funds as well as the profitable investment of these financial resources, and on the other hand, facilitate the application of alternative mechanisms provided by the capital and insurance markets.

In particular, capital markets have developed alternative risk transfer and financing mechanisms, such as captive insurance companies, risk pooling, contingent capital solutions, multi-trigger products and insurance securitisation for hard insurance market phases. These instruments have already been applied to catastrophic (re-insurance in other countries (mainly the US and off-shore domiciles, and may contribute positively to the insurability of extreme weather events in Austria by enhancing financial capacities. Not only private individuals and corporate entities may use alternative mechanisms in order to retain, thus, to finance certain risks, but also public institutions.

This contribution aims at analysing potential solutions for an improved risk management of natural hazards in the private and the public sector by considering alternative mechanisms of the capital and insurance markets. Also the establishment of public-private-partnerships, which may contribute to a more efficient cat funding system in Austria, is considered.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chloe J. Taub

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period. All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Taub, Chloe J; Sturgeon, John A; Johnson, Kevin A; Mackey, Sean C; Darnall, Beth D

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain.

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

Science.gov (United States)

Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic low back pain were assigned in blocks to an experimental condition, either a psychologist-led 10-minute pain catastrophizing induction or a control (10-minute rest period). All participants underwent a baseline round of several quantitative sensory testing (QST) tasks, followed by the pain catastrophizing induction or the rest period, and then a second round of the same QST tasks. The catastrophizing induction appeared to increase state pain catastrophizing levels. Changes in QST pain were detected for two of the QST tasks administered, weighted pin pain and mechanical allodynia. Although there is a need to replicate our preliminary results with a larger sample, study findings suggest a potential relationship between induced pain catastrophizing and central sensitization of pain. Clarification of the mechanisms through which catastrophizing affects pain modulatory systems may yield useful clinical insights into the treatment of chronic pain. PMID:28348505

Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

Science.gov (United States)

Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

2012-04-01

Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

The role of the Fund against Catastrophic Expenditures in Health on the coverage of patients with cataract.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Navarrete-López

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Objective. To describe the effect of the Fund against Catastrophic Expenditures in Health on the provision of services for patients with cataract. Materials and methods. We used administrative dataset on hospital discharges and official figures on population to estimate the rate of care and the coverage for cataract. To estimate the variation on resources, we used data from the National System of Health Information. Results. Coverage for this disease had a significant increase between 2000 and 2010, passing from 24 per thousand cataract patients receiving attention to 58.8 per thousand. This growth is mainly due to the incorporation of cataract to the catalog of diseases covered by the Fund against Catastrophic Expenditures in Health, although this variation is not based on additional resources but in a higher productivity. The growth of services is noticeable in Aguascalientes, Coahuila, Distrito Federal and Nayarit. Conclusions. Our results suggest that policy-making based on evidence have actually brought benefits for Mexican population.

Unusual events regarding losses and finds of radioactive materials in Germany in the years 1991 to 1997

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barth, I; Czarwinski, R [Federal Office for Radiation Protection, Berlin (Germany)

1998-09-01

In Germany safety related events in the use and transportation of radioactive materials as well as in the operation of accelerators are registered completely. Registration and licensing of radioactive sources and the system of notification of the authorities of unusual events are presented. The analysis of these events demonstrates their causation and allows the conclusion on avoidable errors. Especially events like losses and theft of radioactive materials on the one hand and the finds of such sources in public domain on the other hand are analysed in detail. Conclusions (lessons learned) are drawn. (author) 3 refs, 3 figs

Catastrophe loss modelling of storm-surge flood risk in eastern England.

Science.gov (United States)

Muir Wood, Robert; Drayton, Michael; Berger, Agnete; Burgess, Paul; Wright, Tom

2005-06-15

Probabilistic catastrophe loss modelling techniques, comprising a large stochastic set of potential storm-surge flood events, each assigned an annual rate of occurrence, have been employed for quantifying risk in the coastal flood plain of eastern England. Based on the tracks of the causative extratropical cyclones, historical storm-surge events are categorized into three classes, with distinct windfields and surge geographies. Extreme combinations of "tide with surge" are then generated for an extreme value distribution developed for each class. Fragility curves are used to determine the probability and magnitude of breaching relative to water levels and wave action for each section of sea defence. Based on the time-history of water levels in the surge, and the simulated configuration of breaching, flow is time-stepped through the defences and propagated into the flood plain using a 50 m horizontal-resolution digital elevation model. Based on the values and locations of the building stock in the flood plain, losses are calculated using vulnerability functions linking flood depth and flood velocity to measures of property loss. The outputs from this model for a UK insurance industry portfolio include "loss exceedence probabilities" as well as "average annualized losses", which can be employed for calculating coastal flood risk premiums in each postcode.

Incidents in transport of radioactive materials for civil use: IRSN draws lessons from events reported between 1999 and 2007

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-01-01

Some 900,000 packages of radioactive materials for civil use are transported each year in France. The great majority of these shipments involve radioactive materials used in the fields of medicine, pharmaceuticals, industry or property. Transport of radioactive materials linked to the nuclear fuel cycle actually represents only 15% of transport. A great variety of material is transported, differing in weight (from a few grams to tens of tons), form, activity and packaging. The associated risks are also different: radioactive contamination, external exposure to ionising radiation, chemical risk etc. In its role of technical support to safety and radioprotection authorities, IRSN's mission is to assess the design, manufacturing, testing and use of packaging and transport systems. The Institute is also involved in the management and analysis of events that occur during transport of radioactive materials. To assist with this, the IRSN manages a database which lists reported deviations, anomalies, incidents and accidents (known in a generic way as 'events') relating to transport. With an aim of reduction of the risks related to transport, the feedback resulting from the thorough analysis of the notified events is capitalized by IRSN, just as the feedback of the assessments of the safety analysis reports of the various package designs. Based on these feedbacks, IRSN proposes axes of improvement relating to package designs and transport operations, and regulatory evolutions, as well as priority topics for the inspections carried out by the French Nuclear safety authority (ASN). The IRSN has carried out a transversal analysis of all events in transport of radioactive materials that occurred in France from 1999 to 2007 as listed in its database (i.e. 901 events). For each event, some 70 parameters have been recorded from the analysis of the notifications and reports of the events, transmitted by the operators (type of event, type of package, level on the INES scale). This

Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda

OpenAIRE

Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

2015-01-01

Background Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Methods Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined ...

An Updated Perspective of Single Event Gate Rupture and Single Event Burnout in Power MOSFETs

Science.gov (United States)

Titus, Jeffrey L.

2013-06-01

Studies over the past 25 years have shown that heavy ions can trigger catastrophic failure modes in power MOSFETs [e.g., single-event gate rupture (SEGR) and single-event burnout (SEB)]. In 1996, two papers were published in a special issue of the IEEE Transaction on Nuclear Science [Johnson, Palau, Dachs, Galloway and Schrimpf, “A Review of the Techniques Used for Modeling Single-Event Effects in Power MOSFETs,” IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci., vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 546-560, April. 1996], [Titus and Wheatley, “Experimental Studies of Single-Event Gate Rupture and Burnout in Vertical Power MOSFETs,” IEEE Trans. Nucl. Sci., vol. 43, no. 2, pp. 533-545, Apr. 1996]. Those two papers continue to provide excellent information and references with regard to SEB and SEGR in vertical planar MOSFETs. This paper provides updated references/information and provides an updated perspective of SEB and SEGR in vertical planar MOSFETs as well as provides references/information to other device types that exhibit SEB and SEGR effects.

Modeling workplace bullying using catastrophe theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Escartin, J; Ceja, L; Navarro, J; Zapf, D

2013-10-01

Workplace bullying is defined as negative behaviors directed at organizational members or their work context that occur regularly and repeatedly over a period of time. Employees' perceptions of psychosocial safety climate, workplace bullying victimization, and workplace bullying perpetration were assessed within a sample of nearly 5,000 workers. Linear and nonlinear approaches were applied in order to model both continuous and sudden changes in workplace bullying. More specifically, the present study examines whether a nonlinear dynamical systems model (i.e., a cusp catastrophe model) is superior to the linear combination of variables for predicting the effect of psychosocial safety climate and workplace bullying victimization on workplace bullying perpetration. According to the AICc, and BIC indices, the linear regression model fits the data better than the cusp catastrophe model. The study concludes that some phenomena, especially unhealthy behaviors at work (like workplace bullying), may be better studied using linear approaches as opposed to nonlinear dynamical systems models. This can be explained through the healthy variability hypothesis, which argues that positive organizational behavior is likely to present nonlinear behavior, while a decrease in such variability may indicate the occurrence of negative behaviors at work.

Landquake dynamics inferred from seismic source inversion: Greenland and Sichuan events of 2017

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, W. A.

2017-12-01

In June 2017 two catastrophic landquake events occurred in Greenland and Sichuan. The Greenland event leads to tsunami hazard in the small town of Nuugaarsiaq. A landquake in Sichuan hit the town, which resulted in over 100 death. Both two events generated the strong seismic signals recorded by the real-time global seismic network. I adopt an inversion algorithm to derive the landquake force time history (LFH) using the long-period waveforms, and the landslide volume ( 76 million m3) can be rapidly estimated, facilitating the tsunami-wave modeling for early warning purpose. Based on an integrated approach involving tsunami forward simulation and seismic waveform inversion, this study has significant implications to issuing actionable warnings before hazardous tsunami waves strike populated areas. Two single-forces (SFs) mechanism (two block model) yields the best explanation for Sichuan event, which demonstrates that secondary event (seismic inferred volume: 8.2 million m3) may be mobilized by collapse-mass hitting from initial rock avalanches ( 5.8 million m3), likely causing a catastrophic disaster. The later source with a force magnitude of 0.9967×1011 N occurred 70 seconds after first mass-movement occurrence. In contrast, first event has the smaller force magnitude of 0.8116×1011 N. In conclusion, seismically inferred physical parameters will substantially contribute to improving our understanding of landquake source mechanisms and mitigating similar hazards in other parts of the world.

NON-IDEAL MHD EFFECTS AND MAGNETIC BRAKING CATASTROPHE IN PROTOSTELLAR DISK FORMATION

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Zhiyun; Krasnopolsky, Ruben; Shang Hsien

2011-01-01

Dense, star-forming cores of molecular clouds are observed to be significantly magnetized. A realistic magnetic field of moderate strength has been shown to suppress, through catastrophic magnetic braking, the formation of a rotationally supported disk (RSD) during the protostellar accretion phase of low-mass star formation in the ideal MHD limit. We address, through two-dimensional (axisymmetric) simulations, the question of whether realistic levels of non-ideal effects, computed with a simplified chemical network including dust grains, can weaken the magnetic braking enough to enable an RSD to form. We find that ambipolar diffusion (AD), the dominant non-ideal MHD effect over most of the density range relevant to disk formation, does not enable disk formation, at least in two dimensions. The reason is that AD allows the magnetic flux that would be dragged into the central stellar object in the ideal MHD limit to pile up instead in a small circumstellar region, where the magnetic field strength (and thus the braking efficiency) is greatly enhanced. We also find that, on the scale of tens of AU or more, a realistic level of Ohmic dissipation does not weaken the magnetic braking enough for an RSD to form, either by itself or in combination with AD. The Hall effect, the least explored of these three non-ideal MHD effects, can spin up the material close to the central object to a significant, supersonic rotation speed, even when the core is initially non-rotating, although the spun-up material remains too sub-Keplerian to form an RSD. The problem of catastrophic magnetic braking that prevents disk formation in dense cores magnetized to realistic levels remains unresolved. Possible resolutions of this problem are discussed.

Catastrophic health expenditure and its determinants in Kenya slum communities.

Science.gov (United States)

Buigut, Steven; Ettarh, Remare; Amendah, Djesika D

2015-05-14

In Kenya, where 60 to 80% of the urban residents live in informal settlements (frequently referred to as slums), out-of-pocket (OOP) payments account for more than a third of national health expenditures. However, little is known on the extent to which these OOP payments are associated with personal or household financial catastrophe in the slums. This paper seeks to examine the incidence and determinants of catastrophic health expenditure among urban slum communities in Kenya. We use a unique dataset on informal settlement residents in Kenya and various approaches that relate households OOP payments for healthcare to total expenditures adjusted for subsistence, or income. We classified households whose OOP was in excess of a predefined threshold as facing catastrophic health expenditures (CHE), and identified the determinants of CHE using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The results indicate that the proportion of households facing CHE varies widely between 1.52% and 28.38% depending on the method and the threshold used. A core set of variables were found to be key determinants of CHE. The number of working adults in a household and membership in a social safety net appear to reduce the risk of catastrophic expenditure. Conversely, seeking care in a public or private hospital increases the risk of CHE. This study suggests that a substantial proportion of residents of informal settlements in Kenya face CHE and would likely forgo health care they need but cannot afford. Mechanisms that pool risk and cost (insurance) are needed to protect slum residents from CHE and improve equity in health care access and payment.

Catastrophic Economic Consequences of Healthcare Payments: Effects on Poverty Estimates in Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmed Shoukry Rashad

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Healthcare payments could drive households with no health insurance coverage into financial catastrophe, which might lead them to cut spending on necessities, sell assets, or use credit. In extreme cases, healthcare payments could have devastating consequences on the household economic status that would push them into extreme poverty. Using nationally representative surveys from three Arab countries, namely, Egypt, Jordan, and Palestine, this paper examines the incidence, intensity and distribution of catastrophic health payments, and assesses the poverty impact of out-of-pocket health payments (OOP. The OOP for healthcare were considered catastrophic if it exceeded 10% of a household’s total expenditure or 40% of non-food expenditure. The poverty impact was evaluated using poverty head counts and poverty gaps before and after OOP. Results show that OOP exacerbate households’ living severely in Egypt, pushing more than one-fifth of the population into a financial catastrophe and 3% into extreme poverty in 2011. However, in Jordan and Palestine, the disruptive impact of OOP remains modest over time. In the three countries, the catastrophic health payment is the problem of the better off households. Poverty alleviation policies should help reduce the reliance on OOP to finance healthcare. Moving toward universal health coverage could also be a promising option to protect households from the catastrophic economic consequences of health care payments.

Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: task force report summary.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Rodríguez-Pintó, I

2014-10-01

The Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (CAPS) aimed to assess the current knowledge on pathogenesis, clinical and laboratory features, diagnosis and classification, precipitating factors and treatment of CAPS. This article summarizes the main aspects of its final report. © The Author(s) 2014 Reprints and permissions: sagepub.co.uk/journalsPermissions.nav.

Vaginismus : Heightened Harm Avoidance and Pain Catastrophizing Cognitions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borg, Charmaine; Peters, Madelon L.; Schultz, Willibrord Weijmar; de Jong, Peter J.

Introduction. Catastrophic appraisal of experienced pain may promote hypervigilance and intense pain, while the personality trait of harm avoidance (HA) might prevent the occurrence of correcting such experiences. Women inflicted with vaginismus may enter a self-perpetuating downward spiral of

The Climate Catastrophe as Blockbuster

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Eskjær, Mikkel Fugl

2013-01-01

Modern disaster films constitute a specific cultural form that speaks to the anxieties of the “risk society.” This essay looks at how risks like climate change is presented and constructed in popular culture. It regards blockbuster representations as part of a wider discourse of “catastrophism......” within the realm of public climate change communication. For that reason, the essay centers on the interplay between news media and entertainment. It argues that blockbuster disaster films represent an inversion of traditional risk and disaster news....

A ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, X.; Li, D.; Li, G.

2014-11-01

In recent years, great disasters happen now and then. Disaster management test the emergency operation ability of the government and society all over the world. Immediately after the occurrence of a great disaster (e.g., earthquake), a massive nationwide rescue and relief operation need to be kicked off instantly. In order to improve the organizations efficiency of the emergency rescue, the organizers need to take charge of the information of the rescuer teams, including the real time location, the equipment with the team, the technical skills of the rescuers, and so on. One of the key factors for the success of emergency operations is the real time location of the rescuers dynamically. Real time tracking methods are used to track the professional rescuer teams now. But volunteers' participation play more and more important roles in great disasters. However, real time tracking of the volunteers will cause many problems, e.g., privacy leakage, expensive data consumption, etc. These problems may reduce the enthusiasm of volunteers' participation for catastrophe rescue. In fact, the great disaster is just small probability event, it is not necessary to track the volunteers (even rescuer teams) every time every day. In order to solve this problem, a ground moving target emergency tracking method for catastrophe rescue is presented in this paper. In this method, the handheld devices using GPS technology to provide the location of the users, e.g., smart phone, is used as the positioning equipment; an emergency tracking information database including the ID of the ground moving target (including the rescuer teams and volunteers), the communication number of the handheld devices with the moving target, and the usually living region, etc., is built in advance by registration; when catastrophe happens, the ground moving targets that living close to the disaster area will be filtered by the usually living region; then the activation short message will be sent to the selected

Safety, danger and catastrophe inevitability in operation of safety-critical software algorithms: a possible new look at software safety analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Povyakalo, A.A.

2000-01-01

The paper provides basic definitions and describes the basic procedure of the Formal Qualitative Safety Analysis (FQSA) of critical software algorithms. The procedure is described by C-based pseudo-code. It uses the notion of weakest precondition and representation of a given critical algorithm by a Gurevich's Abstract State Mashine (GASM). For a given GASM and a given Catastrophe Condition the procedure results in a Catastrophe Inevitability Condition (it means that every sequence of algorithm steps lead to a catastrophe early or late), Danger Condition (it means that next step may lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable, but a catastrophe may be prevented yet), Safety Condition (it means that a next step can not lead to a catastrophe or make a catastrophe to be inevitable). The using of proposed procedure is illustrated by a simplest test example of algorithm. The FQSA provides a logical basis for PSA of critical algorithm. (author)

Catastrophe Bonds. From Structure to Strategy – A Cluster Analysis at European Level

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura-Gabriela CONSTANTIN

2014-12-01

Full Text Available As a core activity and discipline of corporate management and corporate governance, risk management is, especially nowadays, a central part in pursuing the sustainable development desiderates, both from the perspective of the firm and of the society as a whole.Considering the negative impact natural catastrophes have on the companies’ and countries’ competitiveness, the development of sustainable financial products that make a contribution to transferring the risk and allocating the capital in case of disasters stands for a continual preoccupation, especially for the (reinsurance industry, while the study of catastrophe bonds – insurance-linked securities – is of interest in the specialized literature. In this context, the scope of the present research is to expand the empirical studies within this field while examining the link between the structure of the catastrophe bonds and the risk management approach employed while accessing the capital markets through this transactions.The methodology entailed clustering a selection of transactions developed by European cedents based on the size of each issue and correlating the results with an innovative score, developed to encompass several important catastrophe bonds structural components.The findings reflect that the general structural elements of the financial transactions reflect closely the corporate approach regarding the innovative risk intermediation instruments for the examined catastrophe bonds deals. The outcomes also emphasize, as expected, that companies with a stronger presence on this market seem to have a more sophisticated risk management approach.

Remembering pain after surgery: a longitudinal examination of the role of pain catastrophizing in children's and parents' recall.

Science.gov (United States)

Noel, Melanie; Rabbitts, Jennifer A; Tai, Gabrielle G; Palermo, Tonya M

2015-05-01

Children's memories for pain play a powerful role in their pain experiences. Parents' memories may also influence children's pain experiences, by influencing parent-child interactions about pain and children's cognitions and behaviors. Pain catastrophizing of children and parents has been implicated as a factor underlying memory biases; however, this has not been empirically examined. The current longitudinal study is the first to examine the role of pain catastrophizing of children and parents in the development of their pain memories after surgery. Participants were 49 youth (32 girls) aged 10 to 18 years undergoing major surgery and their parents. One week before surgery, children and parents completed measures of pain catastrophizing. Two weeks after surgery (the acute recovery period), children and parents completed measures of child pain intensity and affect. Two to 4 months after surgery, children's and parents' memories of child pain intensity and affect were elicited. Hierarchical linear regression models revealed that over and above covariates, parent catastrophizing about their child's pain (magnification, rumination) accounted for a significant portion of variance in children's affective and parents' sensory pain memories. Although parent catastrophizing had a direct effect on pain memories, mediation analyses revealed that child catastrophizing (helplessness) indirectly influenced children's and parents' pain memories through the child's postoperative pain experience. Findings highlight that aspects of catastrophic thinking about child pain before surgery are linked to distressing pain memories several months later. Although both child and parent catastrophizing influence pain memory development, parent catastrophizing is most influential to both children's and parents' evolving cognitions about child pain.

Timber price dynamics following a natural catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20 percent of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the...

Effects of a Pain Catastrophizing Induction on Sensory Testing in Women with Chronic Low Back Pain: A Pilot Study

OpenAIRE

Taub, Chloe J.; Sturgeon, John A.; Johnson, Kevin A.; Mackey, Sean C.; Darnall, Beth D.

2017-01-01

Pain catastrophizing, a pattern of negative cognitive-emotional responses to actual or anticipated pain, maintains chronic pain and undermines response to treatments. Currently, precisely how pain catastrophizing influences pain processing is not well understood. In experimental settings, pain catastrophizing has been associated with amplified pain processing. This study sought to clarify pain processing mechanisms via experimental induction of pain catastrophizing. Forty women with chronic l...

Catastrophic failure in complex socio-technical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weir, D.

2004-01-01

This paper reviews the sequences leading to catastrophic failures in complex socio-technical systems. It traces some of the elements of an analytic framework to that proposed by Beer in Decision and Control, first published in 1966, and argues that these ideas are centrally relevant to a topic on which research interest has developed subsequently, the study of crises, catastrophes and disasters in complex socio-technical systems in high technology sectors. But while the system perspective is central, it is not by itself entirely adequate. The problems discussed cannot be discussed simply in terms of system parameters like variety, redundancy and complexity. Much empirical research supports the view that these systems typically operate in degraded mode. The degradations may be primarily initiated within the social components of the socio-technical system. Such variables as hierarchical position, actors' motivations and intentions are relevant to explain the ways in which communication systems typically operate to filter out messages from lower participants and to ignore the 'soft signals' issuing from small-scale and intermittent malfunctions. (author)

Reverse Catastrophe

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Przemysław Czapliński

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The principal notion of the article–a “backward catastrophe”– stands for a catastrophe which occurs unseen until it becomes recognized and which broadens its destructive activity until it has been recognized. This concept in the article has been referred to the Shoah. The main thesis is that the recognition of the actual influence of the Holocaust began in Polish culture in the mid-1980s (largely it started with the film by Claude Lanzmann Shoah and the essay by Jan Błoński Biedni Polacy patrzą na getto [“The Poor Poles Look at the Ghetto”], that is when the question: “What happened to the Jews”, assumes the form: “Did the things that happened to the Jews, also happened to the Poles?”. Cognitive and ethical reorientation leads to the revealing of the hidden consequences of the Holocaust reaching as far as the present day and undermining the foundations of collective identity. In order to understand this situation (and adopt potentially preventive actions Polish society should be recognized as a postcatastrophic one.

Nuclear war and other catastrophes. Civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945; Atomkrieg und andere Katastrophen. Zivil- und Katastrophenschutz in der Bundesrepublik und Grossbritannien nach 1945

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diebel, Martin [Zentrum fuer Zeithistorische Forschung, Potsdam (Germany)

2017-07-01

The book civil and catastrophe protection in the Federal republic of Germany and the United Kingdom after 1945 discusses the following issues: aerial defense and the atomic bomb (1945 - 1968), crises and catastrophes in the shadow of the bomb (1962 - 1978), civil defense and the comeback of the (nuclear) war (1976 - 1979), civil defense and the second ''Cold War'' (1979 - 1986), Chernobyl and the end of the Cold War (1979 - 1990), war, catastrophe and safety in the 20th century - a conclusion.

Japan Catastrophic Earthquake and Tsunami in Fukushima Daiichi NPP; Is it Beyond Design Basis Accident or a Design Deficiency and Operator Unawareness?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gaafar, M.A.; Refeat, R.M.; EL-Kady, A.A.

2012-01-01

On March 11, 2011 a catastrophic earthquake and tsunami struck the north east coast of Japan. This catastrophe damaged fully or partially the six units of the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant.Questions were raised following the aftermath, whether it is beyond design basis accident caused by severe natural event or a failure by the Japanese authorities to plan to deal with such accident. There are many indications that the Utility of Fukushima Daiichi NPP, Tokyo Electric Power Company (TEPCO), did not pay enough attention to numerous facts about the incompatibility of the site and several design defects in the plant units. In fact there are three other NPP sites nearby Fukushima Daiichi Plant (about 30 to 60 Km far from Fukushima Daiichi NPP), with different site characteristics, which survived the same catastrophic earthquake and tsunami, but they were automatically turned into a safe shutdown state. These plants sites are Fukushima Daini Plant (4 units), Onagawa Plant (3 units) and Tokai Daini (II) Plant (one unit). In this paper, the aftermath Fukushima Daiichi plant integrity is pointed out. Some facts about the site and design concerns which could have implications on the accident are discussed. The response of Japan Authority is outlined and some remarks about their actions are underlined. The impacts of this disaster on the Nuclear Power Program worldwide are also discussed.

The Chernobyl catastrophe consequences in the Republic of Belarus. National report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.

1996-03-01

The estimation of radioecological, medico-biological, economic and social consequences of the Chernobyl catastrophe has shown that unimaginable damage was incurred on Belarus and its territory became the zone of ecological calamity. The Chernobyl NPP catastrophe has led to the contamination of almost the fourth part of the territory of Belarus where there lived 2,2 million people. The damage caused to the republic by the catastrophe makes up 32 annual budgets of the republic of the pre-accident period in account for the 30-years period for its overcoming. Radioecological situation in Belarus is characterized by complexity and heterogeneous contamination of the territory by different radionuclides and their presence on all the components of the environment. It stipulates the plurality of ways of external and internal irradiation of the population and jeopardizes its health. There is registered the worsening of the population's health, of evacuated and inhabiting the contaminated areas as well, with increase of a number of somatic diseases, including oncological diseases, there are disorders in the metabolic processes and functions of the main systems of the organism. The demographic indices are decreasing. Particular concern causes the children's morbidity growth and genetic consequences of the accident. The contamination of agricultural lands has stipulated in the neighboring the Chernobyl NPP zone the impossibility of their use for food production. On the other lands it has been required to re-profile the farms and create new technologies of the agricultural production. There have been revealed the destructive tendencies in all spheres of the life activity of people who experienced radiation effects. The processes of social adaptation and socio-psychological support of the population require considerable optimization. In spite of that for ten years passed after the catastrophe the discrepancy of its estimations has not been overcome completely. At the same time

Applying Catastrophe Theory to an Information-Processing Model of Problem Solving in Science Education

Science.gov (United States)

Stamovlasis, Dimitrios; Tsaparlis, Georgios

2012-01-01

In this study, we test an information-processing model (IPM) of problem solving in science education, namely the working memory overload model, by applying catastrophe theory. Changes in students' achievement were modeled as discontinuities within a cusp catastrophe model, where working memory capacity was implemented as asymmetry and the degree…

Catastrophic costs potentially averted by tuberculosis control in India and South Africa: a modelling study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verguet, Stéphane; Riumallo-Herl, Carlos; Gomez, Gabriela B.; Menzies, Nicolas A.; Houben, Rein M. G. J.; Sumner, Tom; Lalli, Marek; White, Richard G.; Salomon, Joshua A.; Cohen, Ted; Foster, Nicola; Chatterjee, Susmita; Sweeney, Sedona; Baena, Inés Garcia; Lönnroth, Knut; Weil, Diana E.; Vassall, Anna

2017-01-01

The economic burden on households affected by tuberculosis through costs to patients can be catastrophic. WHO's End TB Strategy recognises and aims to eliminate these potentially devastating economic effects. We assessed whether aggressive expansion of tuberculosis services might reduce catastrophic

Factors affecting catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses in China: policy implications of universal health insurance.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Ye; Wu, Qunhong; Xu, Ling; Legge, David; Hao, Yanhua; Gao, Lijun; Ning, Ning; Wan, Gang

2012-09-01

To assess the degree to which the Chinese people are protected from catastrophic household expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses and to explore the health system and structural factors influencing the first of these outcomes. Data were derived from the Fourth National Health Service Survey. An analysis of catastrophic health expenditure and impoverishment from medical expenses was undertaken with a sample of 55 556 households of different characteristics and located in rural and urban settings in different parts of the country. Logistic regression was used to identify the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. The rate of catastrophic health expenditure was 13.0%; that of impoverishment was 7.5%. Rates of catastrophic health expenditure were higher among households having members who were hospitalized, elderly, or chronically ill, as well as in households in rural or poorer regions. A combination of adverse factors increased the risk of catastrophic health expenditure. Families enrolled in the urban employee or resident insurance schemes had lower rates of catastrophic health expenditure than those enrolled in the new rural corporative scheme. The need for and use of health care, demographics, type of benefit package and type of provider payment method were the determinants of catastrophic health expenditure. Although China has greatly expanded health insurance coverage, financial protection remains insufficient. Policy-makers should focus on designing improved insurance plans by expanding the benefit package, redesigning cost sharing arrangements and provider payment methods and developing more effective expenditure control strategies.

Catastrophic flooding origin of shelf valley systems in the English Channel.

Science.gov (United States)

Gupta, Sanjeev; Collier, Jenny S; Palmer-Felgate, Andy; Potter, Graeme

2007-07-19

Megaflood events involving sudden discharges of exceptionally large volumes of water are rare, but can significantly affect landscape evolution, continental-scale drainage patterns and climate change. It has been proposed that a significant flood event eroded a network of large ancient valleys on the floor of the English Channel-the narrow seaway between England and France. This hypothesis has remained untested through lack of direct evidence, and alternative non-catastrophist ideas have been entertained for valley formation. Here we analyse a new regional bathymetric map of part of the English Channel derived from high-resolution sonar data, which shows the morphology of the valley in unprecedented detail. We observe a large bedrock-floored valley that contains a distinct assemblage of landforms, including streamlined islands and longitudinal erosional grooves, which are indicative of large-scale subaerial erosion by high-magnitude water discharges. Our observations support the megaflood model, in which breaching of a rock dam at the Dover Strait instigated catastrophic drainage of a large pro-glacial lake in the southern North Sea basin. We suggest that megaflooding provides an explanation for the permanent isolation of Britain from mainland Europe during interglacial high-sea-level stands, and consequently for patterns of early human colonisation of Britain together with the large-scale reorganization of palaeodrainage in northwest Europe.

Does an inter-flaw length control the accuracy of rupture forecasting in geological materials?

Science.gov (United States)

Vasseur, Jérémie; Wadsworth, Fabian B.; Heap, Michael J.; Main, Ian G.; Lavallée, Yan; Dingwell, Donald B.

2017-10-01

Multi-scale failure of porous materials is an important phenomenon in nature and in material physics - from controlled laboratory tests to rockbursts, landslides, volcanic eruptions and earthquakes. A key unsolved research question is how to accurately forecast the time of system-sized catastrophic failure, based on observations of precursory events such as acoustic emissions (AE) in laboratory samples, or, on a larger scale, small earthquakes. Until now, the length scale associated with precursory events has not been well quantified, resulting in forecasting tools that are often unreliable. Here we test the hypothesis that the accuracy of the forecast failure time depends on the inter-flaw distance in the starting material. We use new experimental datasets for the deformation of porous materials to infer the critical crack length at failure from a static damage mechanics model. The style of acceleration of AE rate prior to failure, and the accuracy of forecast failure time, both depend on whether the cracks can span the inter-flaw length or not. A smooth inverse power-law acceleration of AE rate to failure, and an accurate forecast, occurs when the cracks are sufficiently long to bridge pore spaces. When this is not the case, the predicted failure time is much less accurate and failure is preceded by an exponential AE rate trend. Finally, we provide a quantitative and pragmatic correction for the systematic error in the forecast failure time, valid for structurally isotropic porous materials, which could be tested against larger-scale natural failure events, with suitable scaling for the relevant inter-flaw distances.

Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tharani Loganathan

Full Text Available While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking.We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur and rural (Kuala Terengganu setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained.Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38% were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; p<0.001. The mean direct and indirect costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis consisted 20% of monthly household income in Kuala Lumpur, as compared with only 5% in Kuala Terengganu. Direct medical costs paid out-of-pocket caused 141 (33% households in Kuala Lumpur to experience catastrophic expenditure and 11 (3% households to incur poverty. However in Kuala Terengganu, only one household (0.5% experienced catastrophic healthcare expenditure and none were impoverished. The lowest income quintile in Kuala Lumpur was more likely to experience catastrophic payments compared to the highest quintile (87% vs 8%. The concentration index for out-of-pocket healthcare payments was closer to zero at Kuala Lumpur (0.03 than at Kuala Terengganu (0.24.While urban households were wealthier, healthcare expenditure due to gastroenteritis had more catastrophic and poverty impact on the urban poor. Universal rotavirus vaccination would reduce both disease burden and health

Development of the Catastrophe Bonds and their correlation with other financial instruments

OpenAIRE

Čavojec, Ján

2009-01-01

This master thesis discusses the niche of reinsurance business -- catastrophe bonds. It provides a brief description of reinsurance in general, insurance-linked securities and catastrophe bonds. The goal of this thesis is to describe the development of cat bond market and the influence of economic and natural shocks on it. In order to analyze the effect, quarter issuance data are used together with Swiss Re Cat Bonds return indexes. In addition, several other variables (i.e. Munich Re and Swi...

GLACIER DEGRADATION AND CATASTROPHIC MUDFLOWS ORIGIN FROM THE MODERN GLACIAL-MORAINE BODIES IN THE ELBRUS REGION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. A. Zolotarev

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Mechanism of formation of the catastrophic mudflows in different glacial valleys of Elbrus region at the present stage of glacial degradation is described. The important role of the buried ice in the formation of catastrophic mudflows that affected Tyrnyauz in the XX century was revealed as a result of remote monitoring of changes in glacial-moraine complex of Kayarta river. The dynamics of glacial lakes in the Adyl-Su valley in the Bashkara Glacier region was described and probability of their breakthrough was estimated. The quantitative indicators of the dynamics of the landslide in the Kubasanty valley were obtained as a result of remote monitoring, and its influence on the formation of catastrophic mudflows is discovered. Various possible methods of catastrophic mudflows prevention not requiring expensive protective constructions are discussed.

The application of catastrophe theory to image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the inuence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and the

Three Solvable Matrix Models of a Quantum Catastrophe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Levai, G.; Růžička, František; Znojil, Miloslav

2014-01-01

Roč. 53, č. 9 (2014), s. 2875-2890 ISSN 0020-7748 Institutional support: RVO:61389005 Keywords : quantum theory * PT symmetry * Finite-dimensional non-Hermitian Hamiltonians * exceptional-point localization * quantum theory of catastrophes * methods of computer algebra Subject RIV: BE - Theoretical Physics Impact factor: 1.184, year: 2014

The impact of possible climate catastrophes on global warming policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baranzini, Andrea; Chesney, Marc; Morisset, Jacques

2003-01-01

Recent studies on global warming have introduced the inherent uncertainties associated with the costs and benefits of climate policies and have often shown that abatement policies are likely to be less aggressive or postponed in comparison to those resulting from traditional cost-benefit analyses (CBA). Yet, those studies have failed to include the possibility of sudden climate catastrophes. The aim of this paper is to account simultaneously for possible continuous and discrete damages resulting from global warming, and to analyse their implications on the optimal path of abatement policies. Our approach is related to the new literature on investment under uncertainty, and relies on some recent developments of the real option in which we incorporated negative jumps (climate catastrophes) in the stochastic process corresponding to the net benefits associated with the abatement policies. The impacts of continuous and discrete climatic risks can therefore be considered separately. Our numerical applications lead to two main conclusions: (i) gradual, continuous uncertainty in the global warming process is likely to delay the adoption of abatement policies as found in previous studies, with respect to the standard CBA; however (ii) the possibility of climate catastrophes accelerates the implementation of these policies as their net discounted benefits increase significantly

Chernobyl: Endless horror. Late effects of the reactor catastrophe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roethlein, B.

1996-01-01

Ten years after the accident, the people of Chernobyl are trying to live a normal life, but the problems resulting from the catastrophe have not been solved. Some of them are just starting to emerge. (orig.) [de

The reciprocal relationship between daily fatigue and catastrophizing following cancer treatment: Affect and physical activity as potential mediators.

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Fabiola; Stephenson, Ellen; DeLongis, Anita; Smink, Ans; Van Ginkel, Robert J; Tuinman, Marrit A; Hagedoorn, Mariët

2018-03-01

Fatigue is a distressing symptom many cancer patients experience even after completion of treatment. Although theory and empirical evidence indicate that negative cognitions perpetuate fatigue after completion of treatment, insight into how this process unfolds in daily life is limited. This study used an intensive longitudinal design to investigate the reciprocal relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life and whether affective and behavioral processes mediate these relationships. Post-treatment colorectal cancer patients (n = 101) completed daily diaries (14 days, 3 times daily) regarding their fatigue, catastrophizing, positive and negative affect, and physical activity. Multilevel modeling was applied to investigate within-person associations within days. Analyses revealed a positive reciprocal relationship between fatigue and catastrophizing throughout the day. That is, high levels of catastrophizing were associated with increases in fatigue within patients. In turn, but to a lesser extent, high levels of fatigue predicted increases in catastrophizing at the next assessment. Low positive affect and high negative affect mediated the effect of catastrophizing on increases in fatigue. Only negative affect mediated the reverse relationship. Physical activity did not mediate either relationship. This study provides evidence for a mutually reinforcing relationship between catastrophizing and fatigue in daily life, which might explain the perpetuation of fatigue after completion of cancer treatment. Fatigue-specific cognitive behavior therapy could be improved by educating patients about this daily reciprocal relationship, train them to quickly replace catastrophizing thoughts in daily life, and help them to cope with affective changes induced by fatigue. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

SHAREHOLDERS VALUE AND CATASTROPHE BONDS. AN EVENT STUDY ANALYSIS AT EUROPEAN LEVEL

OpenAIRE

Constantin, Laura-Gabriela; Cernat-Gruici, Bogdan; Lupu, Radu; Nadotti Loris, Lino Maria

2015-01-01

Considering that the E.U. based (re)insurance companies are increasingly active within the segment of alternative risk transfer market, the aim of the present paper is to emphasize the impact of issuing cat bonds on the shareholders’ value for highlighting the competitive advantages of the analysed (re)insurance companies while pursuing the consolidation of their resilience in a turbulent economic environment.Eminently an applicative research, the analysis employs an event study methodology w...

Stochastic catastrophe theory and instabilities in plasma turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rajkovic, Milan; Skoric, Milos

2009-01-01

Full text: A Langevin equation (LE) describing evolution of turbulence amplitude in plasma is analyzed from the aspect of stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT) so that turbulent plasma is considered as a stochastic gradient system. According to SCT the dynamics of the system is completely determined by the stochastic potential function and the maximum likelihood estimates of stable and unstable equilibria are associated with the modes and anti-modes, respectively, of the system's stationary probability density function. First order phase transitions occur at degenerate equilibrium points and the potential function at these points may be represented in a generic way. Since the diffusion function of plasma LE is not constant the probability density function (pdf) is not a reliable estimator of the number of stable states. We show that the generalized pdf represented as the product of the stationary pdf and the diffusion function is a reliable estimator of the stable states and that it can be evaluated from the zero mean crossing analysis of plasma turbulence signal. Stochastic bifurcations, and particularly the sudden (catastrophic) ones, are recognized from the pdf's obtained by the zero crossing analysis and we illustrate the applications of SCT in plasma turbulence on data obtained from the MAST (Mega Ampere Spherical Tokamak) for low (L), high (H) and unstable dithering (L/H) confinement regimes. The relationship of the transformation invariant zero-crossing function and SCT is shown to provide important information about the nature of edge localized modes (ELMs) and L-H transition. Finally we show that ELMs occur as a result of catastrophic (hard) bifurcations ruling out the self-organized criticality scenario for their origin. (author)

Microthrombotic renal involvement in an SLE patient with concomitant catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome: the beneficial effect of rituximab treatment.

Science.gov (United States)

Diószegi, Á; Tarr, T; Nagy-Vincze, M; Nánásy-Vass, M; Veisz, R; Bidiga, L; Dezső, B; Balla, J; Szodoray, P; Szekanecz, Z; Soltész, P

2018-01-01

Antiphospholipid syndrome is characterized by multiple arterial and/or venous thrombotic events, recurrent fetal losses in the presence of antiphospholipid antibodies (aPL). Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome is a life-threatening, rare subset of antiphospholipid syndrome when the thrombotic events affect at least three organs, and clinical manifestations develop simultaneously or within a week. Diagnostically, small vessel occlusions can be detected by histopathology in the presence of aPL. Our case report describes an 18-year-old man who has been treated for antiphospholipid syndrome associated with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) since 2011. The clinical findings were dominated by recurrent deep vein thrombosis, and severe proteinuria caused by lupus nephritis, accompanied by mild serological and laboratory findings. The patient was hospitalized in March 2014 because of severe thrombocytopenia and infective diarrhoea. At this time the renal functions deteriorated rapidly. Simultaneously, left upper extremity paresis was observed; computed tomography showed ischaemic lesions in the territory of the middle cerebral artery. Abdominal discomfort and pain occurred. On computed tomography scan ischaemic lesions were seen in the spleen, the right kidney and the coeliac trunk. Laboratory and serological findings verified the presence of aPL and anti-DNA antibodies, anaemia and thrombocytopenia. Based on the above-mentioned clinical and laboratory findings, the diagnosis of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome was established. Anticoagulation, corticosteroids and plasma exchange treatment, as well as haemodiafiltration were initiated. Although the thrombotic cascade decelerated following these interventions, we could not see an improvement in the renal function. Rituximab treatment was started, leading to a significant improvement in renal function. After 5 weeks of treatment the patient was discharged from hospital.

Applications of heavy ion microprobe for single event effects analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reed, Robert A.; Vizkelethy, Gyorgy; Pellish, Jonathan A.; Sierawski, Brian; Warren, Kevin M.; Porter, Mark; Wilkinson, Jeff; Marshall, Paul W.; Niu, Guofu; Cressler, John D.; Schrimpf, Ronald D.; Tipton, Alan; Weller, Robert A.

2007-01-01

The motion of ionizing-radiation-induced rogue charge carriers in a semiconductor can create unwanted voltage and current conditions within a microelectronic circuit. If sufficient unwanted charge or current occurs on a sensitive node, a variety of single event effects (SEEs) can occur with consequences ranging from trivial to catastrophic. This paper describes the application of heavy ion microprobes to assist with calibration and validation of SEE modeling approaches

Catastrophe Theory: A Unified Model for Educational Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Cryer, Patricia; Elton, Lewis

1990-01-01

Catastrophe Theory and Herzberg's theory of motivation at work was used to create a model of change that unifies and extends Lewin's two separate stage and force field models. This new model is used to analyze the behavior of academics as they adapt to the changing university environment. (Author/MLW)

A CATASTROPHIC-CUM-RESTORATIVE QUEUING SYSTEM WITH CORRELATED BATCH ARRIVALS AND VARIABLE CAPACITY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rakesh Kumar

2008-07-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we study a catastrophic-cum-restorative queuing system with correlated batch arrivals and service in batches of variable sizes. We perform the transient analysis of the queuing model. We obtain the Laplace Transform of the probability generating function of system size. Finally, some particular cases of the model have been derived and discussed. Keywords: Queue length, Catastrophes, Correlated batch arrivals, Broadband services, Variable service capacity, and Restoration.

Corporate Disclosure, Materiality, and Integrated Report: An Event Study Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maria Cleofe Giorgino

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Within the extensive literature investigating the impacts of corporate disclosure in supporting the sustainable growth of an organization, few studies have included in the analysis the materiality issue referred to the information being disclosed. This article aims to address this gap, exploring the effect produced on capital markets by the publication of a recent corporate reporting tool, Integrated Report (IR. The features of this tool are that it aims to represent the multidimensional impact of the organization’s activity and assumes materiality as a guiding principle of the report drafting. Adopting the event study methodology associated with a statistical significance test for categorical data, our results verify that an organization’s release of IR is able to produce a statistically significant impact on the related share prices. Moreover, the term “integrated” assigned to the reports plays a significant role in the impact on capital markets. Our findings have beneficial implications for both researchers and practitioners, adding new evidence for the IR usefulness as a corporate disclosure tool and the effect of an organization’s decision to disclose material information.

Classical and quantum fold catastrophe in the presence of axial symmetry

Science.gov (United States)

Dhont, G.; Zhilinskií, B. I.

2008-11-01

We introduce a family of Hamiltonians with two degrees of freedom, axial symmetry and complete integrability. The potential function depends on coordinates and one control parameter. A fold catastrophe typically occurs in such a family of potentials and its consequences on the global dynamics are investigated through the energy-momentum map which defines the singular fibration of the four-dimensional phase space. The two inequivalent local canonical forms of the catastrophe are presented: the first case corresponds to the appearance of a second sheet in the image of the energy-momentum map while the second case is associated with the breaking of an already existing second sheet. A special effort is placed on the description of the singularities. In particular, the existence of cuspidal tori is related to a second-order contact point between the energy level set and the reduced phase space. The quantum mechanical aspects of the changes induced by the fold catastrophe are investigated with the quantum eigenstates computed for an octic potential and are interpreted through the quantum-classical correspondence. We note that the singularity exposed in this paper is not an obstruction to a global definition of action-angle variables.

Earth's portfolio of extreme sediment transport events

Science.gov (United States)

Korup, Oliver

2012-05-01

Quantitative estimates of sediment flux and the global cycling of sediments from hillslopes to rivers, estuaries, deltas, continental shelves, and deep-sea basins have a long research tradition. In this context, extremely large and commensurately rare sediment transport events have so far eluded a systematic analysis. To start filling this knowledge gap I review some of the highest reported sediment yields in mountain rivers impacted by volcanic eruptions, earthquake- and storm-triggered landslide episodes, and catastrophic dam breaks. Extreme specific yields, defined here as those exceeding the 95th percentile of compiled data, are ~ 104 t km- 2 yr- 1 if averaged over 1 yr. These extreme yields vary by eight orders of magnitude, but systematically decay with reference intervals from minutes to millennia such that yields vary by three orders of magnitude for a given reference interval. Sediment delivery from natural dam breaks and pyroclastic eruptions dominate these yields for a given reference interval. Even if averaged over 102-103 yr, the contribution of individual disturbances may remain elevated above corresponding catchment denudation rates. I further estimate rates of sediment (re-)mobilisation by individual giant terrestrial and submarine mass movements. Less than 50 postglacial submarine mass movements have involved an equivalent of ~ 10% of the contemporary annual global flux of fluvial sediment to Earth's oceans, while mobilisation rates by individual events rival the decadal-scale sediment discharge from tectonically active orogens such as Taiwan or New Zealand. Sediment flushing associated with catastrophic natural dam breaks is non-stationary and shows a distinct kink at the last glacial-interglacial transition, owing to the drainage of very large late Pleistocene ice-marginal lakes. Besides emphasising the contribution of high-magnitude and low-frequency events to the global sediment cascade, these findings stress the importance of sediment storage

Discrete event dynamic system (DES)-based modeling for dynamic material flow in the pyroprocess

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hyo Jik; Kim, Kiho; Kim, Ho Dong; Lee, Han Soo

2011-01-01

A modeling and simulation methodology was proposed in order to implement the dynamic material flow of the pyroprocess. Since the static mass balance provides the limited information on the material flow, it is hard to predict dynamic behavior according to event. Therefore, a discrete event system (DES)-based model named, PyroFlow, was developed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). PyroFlow is able to calculate dynamic mass balance and also show various dynamic operational results in real time. By using PyroFlow, it is easy to rapidly predict unforeseeable results, such as throughput in unit process, accumulated product in buffer and operation status. As preliminary simulations, bottleneck analyses in the pyroprocess were carried out and consequently it was presented that operation strategy had influence on the productivity of the pyroprocess.

Co-delivery of paclitaxel and cetuximab by nanodiamond enhances mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition.

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, Yu-Wei; Raj, Emmanuel Naveen; Liao, Wei-Siang; Lin, Johnson; Liu, Kuang-Kai; Chen, Ting-Hua; Cheng, Hsiao-Chun; Wang, Chi-Ching; Li, Lily Yi; Chen, Chinpiao; Chao, Jui-I

2017-08-29

The poor intracellular uptake and non-specific binding of anticancer drugs into cancer cells are the bottlenecks in cancer therapy. Nanocarrier platforms provide the opportunities to improve the drug efficacy. Here we show a carbon-based nanomaterial nanodiamond (ND) that carried paclitaxel (PTX), a microtubule inhibitor, and cetuximab (Cet), a specific monoclonal antibody against epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR), inducing mitotic catastrophe and tumor inhibition in human colorectal cancer (CRC). ND-PTX blocked the mitotic progression, chromosomal separation, and induced apoptosis in the CRC cells; however, NDs did not induce these effects. Conjugation of ND-PTX with Cet (ND-PTX-Cet) was specifically binding to the EGFR-positive CRC cells and enhanced the mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis induction. Besides, ND-PTX-Cet markedly decreased tumor size in the xenograft EGFR-expressed human CRC tumors of nude mice. Moreover, ND-PTX-Cet induced the mitotic marker protein phospho-histone 3 (Ser10) and apoptotic protein active-caspase 3 for mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis. Taken together, this study demonstrated that the co-delivery of PTX and Cet by ND enhanced the effects of mitotic catastrophe and apoptosis in vitro and in vivo, which may be applied in the human CRC therapy.

The shareholder wealth effects of insurance securitization: preliminary evidence from the catastrophe bond market

OpenAIRE

Hagendorff, Bjoern; Hagendorff, Jens; Keasey, Kevin

2013-01-01

Insurance securitization has long been hailed as an important tool to increase theunderwriting capacity for companies exposed to catastrophe-related risks. However, globalvolumes of insurance securitization have remained surprisingly low to date which raisesquestions over its benefits. In this paper, we examine changes in the market value ofinsurance and reinsurance firms which announce their engagement in insurance securitizationby issuing catastrophe (Cat) bonds. Consistent with the hithert...

A catastrophic event in Lake Geneva region during the Early Bronze Age?

Science.gov (United States)

Kremer, Katrina; Yrro, Blé; Marillier, François; Hilbe, Michael; Corboud, Pierre; Rachoud-Schneider, Anne-Marie; Girardclos, Stéphanie

2013-04-01

Similarly to steep oceanic continental margins, lake slopes can collapse, producing large sublacustrine landslides and tsunamis. Lake sediments are excellent natural archives of such mass movements and their study allows the reconstructions of these prehistoric events, such as the 563 AD large tsunami over Lake Geneva (Kremer et al, 2012). In Lake Geneva, more than 100 km of high-resolution seismic reflection profiles reveal the late Holocene sedimentation history. The seismic record shows a succession of five large lens-shaped seismic units (A to I), characterized by transparent/chaotic seismic facies with irregular lower boundaries, and interpreted as mass-movement deposits. These units are interbedded with parallel, continuous and strong amplitude reflections, interpreted as the 'background' lake sediments. The oldest dated mass movement (Unit D) covers a surface of 22 km2 in the deep basin, near the city of Lausanne. This deposit has an estimated minimum volume of 0.18 km3 and thus was very likely tsunamigenic (Kremer et al, 2012). A 12-m-long sediment core confirms the seismic interpretation of the mass movement unit and shows that the uppermost 3 m of Unit D are characterized by deformed hemipelagic sediments topped by a 5 cm thick turbidite. This deposit can be classified as a slump whose scar can be interpreted in the seismic data and visualized by multibeam bathymetry. This slump of Lausanne was likely triggered by an earthquake but a spontaneous slope collapse cannot be excluded (Girardclos et al, 2007). Radiocarbon dating of plant macro-remains reveals that the unit D happened during Early Bronze Age. Three other mass wasting deposits occurred during the same time period and may have been triggered during the same event, either by a single earthquake or by a tsunami generated by the slump of Lausanne. Although the exact trigger mechanism of the all these mass-wasting deposits remains unknown, a tsunami likely generated by this event may have affected the

Investigation for integration of the German Public Health Service in catastrophe and disaster prevention programs in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pfenninger, E.; Koenig, S.; Himmelseher, S.

2004-01-01

This research project aimed at investigating the integration of the GPHS into the plans for civil defence and protection as well as catastrophe prevention of the Federal Republic of Germany. Following a comprehensive analysis of the current situation, potential proposals for an improved integrative approach will be presented. In view of the lack of topics relevant for medical care in disaster medicine in educational curricula and training programs for medical students and postgraduate board programs for public health physicians, a working group of the Civil Protection Board of the German Federal Ministry of the Interior already complained in their 'Report on execution of legal rules for protection and rescue of human life as well as restitution of public health after disaster' in 1999, that the integration of the GPHS into catastrophe and disaster prevention programs has insufficiently been solved. On a point-by-point approach, our project analysed the following issues: - Legislative acts for integration of the German Public Health Service into medical care in catastrophes and disasters to protect the civilian population of Germany and their implementation and execution. - Administrative rules and directives on state and district levels that show relationship to integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management and their implementation and execution. - Education and postgraduate training options for physicians and non-physician employees of the German Public health Service to prepare for medical care in catastrophes and disasters. - State of knowledge and experience of the German Public Health Service personnel in emergency and disaster medicine. - Evaluation of the German administrative catastrophe prevention authorities with regard to their integration of the German Public Health Service into preparedness programs for catastrophe prevention and management. - Development of a concept to remedy the

Geohazard assessment through the analysis of historical alluvial events in Southern Italy

Science.gov (United States)

Esposito, Eliana; Violante, Crescenzo

2015-04-01

The risk associated with extreme water events such as flash floods, results from a combination of overflows and landslides hazards. A multi-hazard approach have been utilized to analyze the 1773 flood that occurred in conjunction with heavy rainfall, causing major damage in terms of lost lives and economic cost over an area of 200 km2, including both the coastal strip between Salerno and Maiori and the Apennine hinterland, Campania region - Southern Italy. This area has been affected by a total of 40 flood events over the last five centuries, 26 of them occurred between 1900 and 2000. Streamflow events have produced severe impacts on Cava de' Tirreni (SA) and its territory and in particular four catastrophic floods in 1581, 1773, 1899 and 1954, caused a pervasive pattern of destruction. In the study area, rainstorm events typically occur in small and medium-sized fluvial system, characterized by small catchment areas and high-elevation drainage basins, causing the detachment of large amount of volcaniclastic and siliciclastic covers from the carbonate bedrock. The mobilization of these deposits (slope debris) mixed with rising floodwaters along the water paths can produce fast-moving streamflows of large proportion with significant hazardous implications (Violante et al., 2009). In this context the study of 1773 historical flood allows the detection and the definition of those areas where catastrophic events repeatedly took place over the time. Moreover, it improves the understanding of the phenomena themselves, including some key elements in the management of risk mitigation, such as the restoration of the damage suffered by the buildings and/or the environmental effects caused by the floods.

Simulating single-event burnout of n-channel power MOSFET's

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Johnson, G.H.; Hohl, J.H.; Schrimpf, R.D.; Galloway, K.F.

1993-01-01

Heavy ions are ubiquitous in a space environment. Single-event burnout of power MOSFET's is a sudden catastrophic failure mechanism that is initiated by the passage of a heavy ion through the device structure. The passage of the heavy ion generates a current filament that locally turns on a parasitic n-p-n transistor inherent to the power MOSFET. Subsequent high currents and high voltage in the device induce second breakdown of the parasitic bipolar transistor and hence meltdown of the device. This paper presents a model that can be used for simulating the burnout mechanism in order to gain insight into the significant device parameters that most influence the single-event burnout susceptibility of n-channel power MOSFET's

The Mirror World Interpretation of the 1908 Tunguska Event and other More Recent Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foot, R.

2001-01-01

Mirror matter is predicted to exist if parity ( i.e. left-right symmetry) is a symmetry of nature. Remarkably mirror matter is capable of simply explaining a large number of contemporary puzzles in astrophysics and particle physics including: Explanation of the MACHO gravitational microlensing events, the existence of close-in extrasolar gas giant planets, apparently 'isolated' planets, the solar, atmospheric and LSND neutrino anomalies, the orthopositronium lifetime anomaly and perhaps even gamma ray bursts. One fascinating possibility is that our solar system contains small mirror matter space bodies (asteroid or comet sized objects), which are too small to be revealed from their gravitational effects but nevertheless have explosive implications when they collide with the Earth. We examine the possibility that the 1908 Tunguska explosion in Siberia was the result of the collision of a mirror matter space body with the Earth. We point out that if this catastrophic event and many other similar smaller events are manifestations of the mirror world then these impact sites should be a good place to start digging for mirror matter. Mirror matter could potentially be extracted and purified using a centrifuge and have many useful industrial applications. (author)

Sibling relationships as a resource for coping with traumatic events

OpenAIRE

Perricone, Giovanna; Fontana, Valentina; Burgio, Sofia; Polizzi, Concetta

2014-01-01

The study investigated the correlation between the perception of sibling relationship to cope an adverse occurrence – the partial collapse of a primary school – and the indicators related to the traumatic impact set off by the event, by soliciting the child’s reminiscence of the catastrophic experience. One hundred trauma-exposed children were recruited from a Sicilian primary school and were administered the following research instruments: the Trauma Symptom Checklist for Children (TSCC-A), ...

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relation between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Natoshia R; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-12-01

Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning, and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors (overprotection, minimizing, and/or encouragement) in response to their child's pain interact with child coping characteristics (eg, catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relation between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children's levels of maladaptive coping (ie, pain catastrophizing). Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated in the study. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: Protection, Minimizing, and Encouragement/Monitoring subscales). Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relation between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relation between parent protectiveness and disability. The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined, in part, by the child's coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP.

A catastrophe in quantum mechanics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ignatovich, V.K.

2004-01-01

The standard scattering theory (SST) in nonrelativistic quantum mechanics (QM) is analyzed. Self-contradictions of SST are deconstructed. A direct way to calculate scattering probability without introduction of a finite volume is discussed. Substantiation of SST in textbooks with the help of wave packets is shown to be incomplete. A complete theory of wave packet scattering on a fixed center is presented, and its similarity to the plane wave scattering is demonstrated. The neutron scattering on a monatomic gas is investigated, and several problems are pointed out. A catastrophic ambiguity of the cross section is revealed, and a way to resolve this ambiguity is discussed

Pain Catastrophizing in Borderline Morbidly Obese and Morbidly Obese Individuals with Osteoarthritic Knee Pain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tamara J Somers

2008-01-01

Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: There is limited information about how morbidly obese osteoarthritis (OA patients cope with the pain they experience. Pain catastrophizing is an important predictor of pain and adjustment in persons with persistent pain. This may be particularly relevant in the morbidly obese (body mass index [BMI] of 40 kg/m2 or greater OA population at risk for increased pain. The present study first examined whether borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients report higher levels of pain catastrophizing than a sample of OA patients in the overweight and obese category (BMI between 25 kg/m2 and 34 kg/m2. Next, it examined how pain catastrophizing is related to important indexes of pain and adjustment in borderline morbidly obese and morbidly obese OA patients.

The Application of Catastrophe Theory to Medical Image Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, Arjan; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of

Catastrophe Optics Method to Determine the Micro-Nano Size Profiles at TPL of Liquid Films on a Solid Surface

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, David F.; McQuillen, J. B.; Sankovic, J. M.; Zhang, Nengli

2009-01-01

As discovered by recent studies, what directly affects the wetting and spreading is curvature in micro-region rather than the macroscopic contact angle. Measuring the profile of the micro-region becomes an important research topic. Recently, catastrophe optics has been applied to this kind of measurements. Optical catastrophe occurring in far field of waves of liquid-refracted laser beam implies a wealth of information about the liquid spreading not only for liquid drops but also for films. When a parallel laser beam passes through a liquid film on a slide glass at three-phase-line (TPL), very interesting optical image patterns occur on a screen far from the film. An analysis based on catastrophe optics discloses and interprets the formation of these optical image patterns. The analysis reveals that the caustic line manifested as the bright-thick line on the screen implies the lowest hierarchy of optical catastrophes, called fold caustic. This optical catastrophe is produced by the inflexion line on liquid surface at the liquid foot, which is formed not only in the spreading of drops but also in spreading of films. The generalized catastrophe optics method enables to identify the edge profiles and determine the edge foot height of liquid films. Keywords: Crossover region, Inflexion line, liquid edge foot, Catastrophe optics, Caustic and diffraction

Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg [Freiburg Univ. (Germany). Abt. Radiologie; Spyridonidis, Alexandros [Freiburg Univ. (DE). Abt. Innere Medizin 1 (Haematologie und Onkologie)

2002-03-01

We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

Imaging findings in the rare catastrophic variant of the primary antiphospholipid syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thuerl, Christina; Altehoefer, Carsten; Laubenberger, Joerg

2002-01-01

We report imaging findings in a case of the rare catastrophic variant of antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) characterized by widespread microvascular occlusions, which may lead to multiple organ failure. We present a case of a 66-year-old woman with bone marrow necrosis, acute acalculous cholecystitis (AAC), focal liver necrosis, subtle patchy splenic infarctions, and bilateral adrenal infarction. The demonstration of multiple microvascular organ involvement (three or more) is crucial for the diagnosis of the catastrophic variant of APS. This can be performed radiologically intra-vitam. Imaging can even reveal subclinical microinfarctions, which are often only diagnosed at autopsy. (orig.)

Self-Efficacy for Pain Communication Moderates the Relation Between Ambivalence Over Emotional Expression and Pain Catastrophizing Among Patients With Osteoarthritis.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Denburg, Alyssa N; Shelby, Rebecca A; Caldwell, David S; O'Sullivan, Madeline L; Keefe, Francis J

2018-04-06

Pain catastrophizing (ie, the tendency to focus on and magnify pain sensations and feel helpless in the face of pain) is one of the most important and consistent psychological predictors of the pain experience. The present study examined, in 60 patients with osteoarthritis pain who were married or partnered: 1) the degree to which ambivalence over emotional expression and negative network orientation were associated with pain catastrophizing, and 2) whether self-efficacy for pain communication moderated these relations. Hierarchical multiple linear regression analyses revealed a significant main effect for the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing; as ambivalence over emotional expression increased, the degree of pain catastrophizing increased. In addition, the interaction between ambivalence over emotional expression and self-efficacy for pain communication was significant, such that as self-efficacy for pain communication increased, the association between ambivalence over emotional expression and pain catastrophizing became weaker. Negative network orientation was not significantly associated with pain catastrophizing. Findings suggest that higher levels of self-efficacy for pain communication may help weaken the effects of ambivalence over emotional expression on pain catastrophizing. In light of these results, patients may benefit from interventions that target pain communication processes and emotion regulation. This article examines interpersonal processes involved in pain catastrophizing. This study has the potential to lead to better understanding of maladaptive pain coping strategies and possibly better prevention and treatment strategies. Copyright © 2018 The American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

The application of catastrophe theory to medical image analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kuijper, A.; Florack, L.M.J.

2001-01-01

In order to investigate the deep structure of Gaussian scale space images, one needs to understand the behaviour of critical points under the influence of blurring. We show how the mathematical framework of catastrophe theory can be used to describe the various different types of annihilations and

Acceptance of governmental communication in catastrophes and media coverage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ruhrmann, G.; Kohring, M.

1997-01-01

Technology policy - like every political field - has to deal with conflicts, in which different partial interests are negotiated. Technological catastrophes are based on past decisions in technology policy. From there specific problems of acceptance in catastrophes can only be understood according to this social and temporal context. Acceptance deficits of the government result from the insufficient consideration of the interests non-governmental actors express(ed) with regard to technological risk decisions. Therefore governmental risk and crisis communication should communicate the rationales underlying technology decisions, at the same time giving other actors the possibility of further negotiation. The media coverage plays an important role in this communication process. Following their own specific rules the media create a public sphere, in order to give different groups and institutions an orientation for their social acting. Governmental communication should not consider journalism as a transmission belt for its information policy - rather, in order to be effective, it should respect the specific journalistic conduct. (orig.) [de

Catastrophic flood disturbance and a community's response to plant resilience in the heart of the Texas Hill Country

Science.gov (United States)

Meitzen, Kimberly M.; Phillips, John N.; Perkins, Thaïs; Manning, Aspen; Julian, Jason P.

2018-03-01

The Blanco River, which flows through the limestone Balcones Canyonlands of central Texas (USA), experienced catastrophic flooding in May 2015 that resulted in significant biogeomorphic disturbance to its riparian corridor. High-resolution aerial and satellite imagery from pre- and post-flooding for a 55-km reach of river were used to map and categorize patterns of disturbance by degree of severity ranging from complete floodplain stripping to no disturbance. The most severe disturbance occurred within the floodway near the channel and decreased with lateral distance into the 100- and 500-year floodplains. Disturbance patterns previously identified in the literature including meander scour, parallel chute scour, convex bank erosion, and macroturbulent scour were all present following this event, as well as substantial disturbance proximal to tributary confluences. In the aftermath of this event, TreeFolks, a local nonprofit organization, engaged with the community to actively replant and restore the riparian corridor of the Blanco River on public and private lands. These reforestation efforts supplement the natural passive recovery of the riparian corridor, enabling the system to recover more quickly and be resilient to future flood events.

Child pain catastrophizing mediates the relationship between parent responses to pain and disability in youth with functional abdominal pain

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Natoshia Raishevich; Lynch-Jordan, Anne; Barnett, Kimberly; Peugh, James; Sil, Soumitri; Goldschneider, Kenneth; Kashikar-Zuck, Susmita

2014-01-01

Objectives Functional abdominal pain (FAP) in youth is associated with substantial impairment in functioning and prior research has shown that overprotective parent responses can heighten impairment. Little is known about how a range of parental behaviors in response to their child’s pain (overprotection, minimizing and/or encouragement) interact with child coping characteristics (e.g., catastrophizing) to influence functioning in youth with FAP. In this study, it was hypothesized that the relationship between parenting factors and child disability would be mediated by children’s level of maladaptive coping (i.e., pain catastrophizing). Methods Seventy-five patients with FAP presenting to a pediatric pain clinic and their caregivers participated. Youth completed measures of pain intensity (Numeric Rating Scale), pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and disability (Functional Disability Inventory). Caregivers completed measures of parent pain catastrophizing (Pain Catastrophizing Scale), and parent responses to child pain behaviors (Adult Responses to Child Symptoms: protection, minimizing, and encouragement/monitoring subscales). Results Increased functional disability was significantly related to higher child pain intensity, increased child and parent pain catastrophizing, and higher levels of encouragement/monitoring and protection. Parent minimization was not related to disability. Child pain catastrophizing fully mediated the relationship between parent encouragement/monitoring and disability and partially mediated the relationship between parent protectiveness and disability. Conclusions The impact of parenting behaviors in response to FAP on child disability is determined in part by the child’s coping style. Findings highlight a more nuanced understanding of the parent-child interaction in determining pain-related disability levels, which should be taken into consideration in assessing and treating youth with FAP. PMID:25121521

Flood Catastrophe Model for Designing Optimal Flood Insurance Program: Estimating Location-Specific Premiums in the Netherlands.

Science.gov (United States)

Ermolieva, T; Filatova, T; Ermoliev, Y; Obersteiner, M; de Bruijn, K M; Jeuken, A

2017-01-01

As flood risks grow worldwide, a well-designed insurance program engaging various stakeholders becomes a vital instrument in flood risk management. The main challenge concerns the applicability of standard approaches for calculating insurance premiums of rare catastrophic losses. This article focuses on the design of a flood-loss-sharing program involving private insurance based on location-specific exposures. The analysis is guided by a developed integrated catastrophe risk management (ICRM) model consisting of a GIS-based flood model and a stochastic optimization procedure with respect to location-specific risk exposures. To achieve the stability and robustness of the program towards floods with various recurrences, the ICRM uses stochastic optimization procedure, which relies on quantile-related risk functions of a systemic insolvency involving overpayments and underpayments of the stakeholders. Two alternative ways of calculating insurance premiums are compared: the robust derived with the ICRM and the traditional average annual loss approach. The applicability of the proposed model is illustrated in a case study of a Rotterdam area outside the main flood protection system in the Netherlands. Our numerical experiments demonstrate essential advantages of the robust premiums, namely, that they: (1) guarantee the program's solvency under all relevant flood scenarios rather than one average event; (2) establish a tradeoff between the security of the program and the welfare of locations; and (3) decrease the need for other risk transfer and risk reduction measures. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Efficient prevention and compensation of catastrophic risks. The example of damage by nuclear accidents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vanden Borre, T.

2001-01-01

This book deals with the liability for damage due to catastrophic risks. The nuclear liability law serves as an example of such a catastrophic risk. The question that we tried to answer is what an efficient compensation scheme for catastrophic risks should look like. This question is dealt with both from a law and an economic point of view and from a comparative point of view. The main element in comparing the laws in different countries is the comparison between Belgian and Dutch civil (nuclear) liability law. But also American nuclear liability law is part of the analysis (the Price-Anderson Act). The book consists of four parts: (nuclear) civil liability law, legal and economic approach, analysis of other compensation systems and conclusions. The big themes in this book are therefore civil (nuclear) liability law, insurance law and environmental liability law [nl

Seventh-day syndrome: a catastrophic event after liver transplantation: case report.

Science.gov (United States)

Pereira, M; Ferreira, I; Gandara, J; Ferreira, S; Lopes, V; Coelho, A; Vizcaino, R; Marinho, A; Daniel, J; Miranda, H P

2015-05-01

Seventh-day syndrome (7DS) is an early serious complication of liver transplantation, characterized by sudden failure of a previously normally functioning liver graft ∼1 week after the surgery. Although it is an uncommon event, it has major associated mortality. As its etiology is yet to be recognized, the only currently available treatment is retransplantation. We present 3 cases of orthotopic liver transplantation recipients who had an initial uneventful recovery after surgery followed by a dramatic rise of serum liver enzyme levels ∼7 days later and hepatic failure with subsequent graft loss and death despite high-dose immunosuppressive therapy. Histologic findings showed massive centrolobular hemorrhage and hepatocellular necrosis with reduced inflammation. It is essential to review and accumulate more clinical and laboratory information to better understand this syndrome and to better prevent and treat it. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Catastrophic shifts in the aquatic primary production revealed by a small low-flow section of tropical downstream after dredging.

Science.gov (United States)

Marotta, H; Enrich-Prast, A

2015-11-01

Dredging is a catastrophic disturbance that directly affects key biological processes in aquatic ecosystems, especially in those small and shallow. In the tropics, metabolic responses could still be enhanced by the high temperatures and solar incidence. Here, we assessed changes in the aquatic primary production along a small section of low-flow tropical downstream (Imboassica Stream, Brazil) after dredging. Our results suggested that these ecosystems may show catastrophic shifts between net heterotrophy and autotrophy in waters based on three short-term stages following the dredging: (I) a strongly heterotrophic net primary production -NPP- coupled to an intense respiration -R- likely supported by high resuspended organic sediments and nutrients from the bottom; (II) a strongly autotrophic NPP coupled to an intense gross primary production -GPP- favored by the high nutrient levels and low solar light attenuation from suspended solids or aquatic macrophytes; and (III) a NPP near to the equilibrium coupled to low GPP and R rates following, respectively, the shading by aquatic macrophytes and high particulate sedimentation. In conclusion, changes in aquatic primary production could be an important threshold for controlling drastic shifts in the organic matter cycling and the subsequent silting up of small tropical streams after dredging events.

La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl entre erreurs humaines et défauts techniques

CERN Document Server

Perrineau, Aude

2015-01-01

Découvrez enfin tout ce qu'il faut savoir sur la catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl en moins d'une heure ! Le 26 avril 1986 à 1 h 23, une catastrophe d'un nouveau genre ébranle le monde : un réacteur de la centrale nucléaire de Tchernobyl explose. Alors que les autorités soviétiques camouflent l'accident, puis en minimisent l'importance, un nuage radioactif se forme et se propage sur toute l'Europe…Ce livre vous permettra d'en savoir plus sur : Le contexte de l'époque Les acteurs majeurs qui ont participé à l'événement La catastrophe nucléaire de Tchernobyl Les répercussions du drameLe mot

Analysis of environmental contamination resulting from catastrophic incidents: part 2. Building laboratory capability by selecting and developing analytical methodologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Magnuson, Matthew; Campisano, Romy; Griggs, John; Fitz-James, Schatzi; Hall, Kathy; Mapp, Latisha; Mullins, Marissa; Nichols, Tonya; Shah, Sanjiv; Silvestri, Erin; Smith, Terry; Willison, Stuart; Ernst, Hiba

2014-11-01

Catastrophic incidents can generate a large number of samples of analytically diverse types, including forensic, clinical, environmental, food, and others. Environmental samples include water, wastewater, soil, air, urban building and infrastructure materials, and surface residue. Such samples may arise not only from contamination from the incident but also from the multitude of activities surrounding the response to the incident, including decontamination. This document summarizes a range of activities to help build laboratory capability in preparation for sample analysis following a catastrophic incident, including selection and development of fit-for-purpose analytical methods for chemical, biological, and radiological contaminants. Fit-for-purpose methods are those which have been selected to meet project specific data quality objectives. For example, methods could be fit for screening contamination in the early phases of investigation of contamination incidents because they are rapid and easily implemented, but those same methods may not be fit for the purpose of remediating the environment to acceptable levels when a more sensitive method is required. While the exact data quality objectives defining fitness-for-purpose can vary with each incident, a governing principle of the method selection and development process for environmental remediation and recovery is based on achieving high throughput while maintaining high quality analytical results. This paper illustrates the result of applying this principle, in the form of a compendium of analytical methods for contaminants of interest. The compendium is based on experience with actual incidents, where appropriate and available. This paper also discusses efforts aimed at adaptation of existing methods to increase fitness-for-purpose and development of innovative methods when necessary. The contaminants of interest are primarily those potentially released through catastrophes resulting from malicious activity

Topographic precursors and geological structures of deep-seated catastrophic landslides caused by typhoon Talas, determined from the analysis of high-resolution DEMs

Science.gov (United States)

Chigira, Masahiro; Tsou, Ching-Ying; Matsushi, Yuki

2013-04-01

Typhoon Talas crossed the Japanese Islands between 2 and 5 September 2011, causing more than 70 deep-seated catastrophic landslides in a Jurassic to Paleogene-Early Miocene accretion complex. Detailed examination of the topographic features of 10 large landslides before the event, recorded on DEMs with a resolution of 1 m (based on airborne laser scanner surveys), showed that all of the landslides had small scarplets near their future crowns prior to the slide, and one landslide had linear depressions along its future crown as precursor topographic features. These scarplets and linear depressions were caused by gravitational slope deformation that preceded the catastrophic failure. Strains, defined by the ratio of the length of a scarplet to the length of the whole slope (as measured along the slope line), ranged from 5% to 21%, and are the first reliable numerical data relating to the topographic precursor features of large and catastrophic landslides. Careful examination of aerial photographs from another four large landslides, for which no high-resolution DEMs were available, suggested that they also developed scarplets at their heads beforehand, which are not precisely quantified. Twelve of the 14 landslides we surveyed in the field had sliding surfaces with wedge-shaped discontinuities that consisted of faults, shear surfaces that formed during accretion, and bedding, suggesting that the buildup of pore pressure occurs readily in a gravitationally deformed rock body containing wedge-shaped discontinuities. Other types of gravitational deformation were also active; e.g., flexural toppling and buckling were each observed to have preceded one landslide.

Expectancies Mediate the Relations Among Pain Catastrophizing, Fear of Movement, and Return to Work Outcomes After Whiplash Injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Carriere, Junie S; Thibault, Pascal; Milioto, Maria; Sullivan, Michael J L

2015-12-01

Pain catastrophizing and fear of movement have been identified as key predictors of prolonged work disability after whiplash injury. However, little is known about the processes by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return to work. This study investigated the mediating role of expectancies on the relations between pain catastrophizing and return to work, and between fear of movement and return to work after whiplash injury. The study sample consisted of 154 individuals with whiplash injury who were enrolled in a multidisciplinary pain rehabilitation program. Participants completed measures of pain catastrophizing, fear of movement, and return-to-work expectancies after admission to a rehabilitation program. A follow-up telephone interview was used to assess work status 1 year after discharge. Consistent with previous research, analyses revealed that expectancies, pain catastrophizing, and fear of movement were significant predictors of return to work at 1-year follow-up. Regression analyses (bootstrapping) revealed that expectancies partially mediated the relation between catastrophizing and return to work. Expectancies completely mediated the relation between fear of movement and return to work. The significant predictive and mediating role of expectancies on return to work argues for the inclusion of expectancies as a specific target of intervention for individuals with whiplash injury. The findings suggest that expectancies might be part of the pathways by which pain catastrophizing and fear of movement affect return-to-work outcomes after whiplash injury. The findings argue for greater attention to return-to-work expectancies as a risk factor for problematic recovery outcomes as well as a target of intervention. Copyright © 2015 American Pain Society. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Connecting Capital and Catastrophe in a Modeled World - How re/insurance and public science interact to manage risk for societal benefit

Science.gov (United States)

Douglas, R.

2010-12-01

Society, at local and global scales, seeks improved ways of managing the impact and sharing the costs of extreme natural events across populations via public and private mechanisms. Concerns over potential climate change and climate variability are amplifying the importance of these questions among public policy, business and regulatory communities. Through its financial obligations to exposed populations, the international insurance and reinsurance sector is directly affected by the frequency, severity and impact of extreme events. In many jurisdictions insurance contracts are regulated to tolerate the maximum probable loss events which are expected at 1 in 200 year return periods. This risk tolerance requirement renders re/insurers to undertake distinctive risk analysis among financial sector institutions. Natural catastrophe risk is a major component of re/insurer risk at the 1:200 year return period and a significant driver of the minimum capital requirements imposed on re/insurers. Historic claims records are insufficient on their own to evaluate potential losses at these return periods and over the last twenty years a significant sub-sector of the re/insurance industry has emerged known as catastrophe risk modelling. This has brought a progress and influential approach in applying science to gain a great handle of the expected losses to portfolios by developing increasingly robust analysis of hazards, exposures, vulnerabilities and impacts. As a result of these innovations the re/insurance sector has become more resilient to natural catastrophes. In recent years there has been an accelerated and deepening interaction between the re/insurance sector and public science across natural hazards risk research. The medium of modelling is providing a common vehicle for science and industry communities to collaborate and new supply chains are emerging from blue sky public science, through to applied research and operation modelling. Increasingly both sides are sharing

Catastrophic antiphospholipid Syndrome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Medina Velasquez, Yimy; Felix Restrepo Suarez, Jose; Iglesias Gamarra, Antonio

2001-01-01

The antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is characterized by venous, arterial thrombosis and miscarriages along with lupic anticoagulant and antibodies against anticardiolipin. The catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) has been described since 1992 like a multiple organic dysfunction caused by multiple vascular thrombosis in three or more organs. The patients who suffer from this syndrome may have or not history of APS. There are two or three mechanisms that may cause the CAPS, alone or in combination: These are: 1. The multisystemic thrombotic disease with emphasis in microvasculature occlusion of the organs and occlusion of big arterial or veins 2. The disseminated intravascular coagulation (DIC) superimpose in 15% to 50% of the patients that, of course, conducted to an occlusive disease of arterioles, veins or capillaries. 3. A systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS) induced by citoquines. In this review it is described clinical and laboratory features, pathogenesis and treatment of CAPS. For this purpose, it was searched for Medline from 1993 to 2000 and revised the most significant issues obtained by this medium

Isotopic investigations in the area of the Tunguska catastrophe in 1908 year

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kolesnikov, E.M.

1988-01-01

The hypotheses of the annihilation and thermonuclear character of the Tunguska explosion have been tested by measuring inductive Ar-39 radioactivity from K and Ca in rocks and soil under the explosion epicentrum. Ar-39 was not detected though its estimated radioactivity was expected to be 100 times higher than the radio-metrical plant sensitivity. These results testify against the nuclear nature of the Tunguska explosion. The contents of 11 elements in the ultrasmall quantity of matter of the silicate microspherules isolated from catastrophe peat layer at the explosion site were measured by method of neutron activation analysis. It was demonstrated that the enrichment of microspherules by light and volatile elements (Al, Na, Zn, Cs) and the impoverishment by more heavy and hard volatile ones (Fe, Co, Sc). It was shown that the microspherules were not the product of differentiation of the terrestrial soil or of an ordinary meteorite material. It was demonstrated that Pb isotopic content in catastrophe peat layer had more Pb-204, Pb-207, Pb-208 than Pb-206 as compared with Pb isotopic content of other peat layers and common Pb in this area. In the peat column taken at the Ostraya hill area in three nearcatastrophe layers, small increases of isotopic C-13 was determined. Isotopic C effect in the peat layer is confirmed also for the North peatbog. Observed isotopic changes are not accounted for by climatic changes or other physico-chemical reasons. They seem to be related to preservation in the peat of matter resembling carbonaceous chrondrites of the Cl type or more probably of cometary matter enriched much more in volatile elements

Overview of catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes in power electronic circuits

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wu, Rui; Blaabjerg, Frede; Wang, Huai

2013-01-01

Emerging applications (e.g. electric vehicles, renewable energy systems, more electric aircrafts, etc.) have brought more stringent reliability constrains into power electronic products because of safety requirements and maintenance cost issues. To improve the reliability of power electronics......, better understanding of failure modes and failure mechanisms of reliability–critical components in power electronic circuits are needed. Many efforts have been devoted to the reduction of IGBT failures, while the study on the failures of freewheeling diodes is less impressive. It is of importance...... to investigate the catastrophic failures of freewheeling diodes as they could induce the malfunction of other components and eventually the whole power electronic circuits. This paper presents an overview of those catastrophic failures and gives examples of the corresponding consequences to the circuits....

Modeling the Effect of Privatization on Behavior of Hurst Exponent Using Stochastic Catastrophe Theory

Science.gov (United States)

Bolgorian, Meysam; Raei, Reza

In this paper using the global Hurst exponent, the impact of privatization of public companies in Iran on the degree of efficiency in Tehran Stock Exchange is assessed. The results show that selling public companies' share in Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) leads to a structural break in degree of market development. To model this phenomenon a catastrophe approach is used and it is demonstrated that this structural break can be better explained by a cusp catastrophe model.

Nonlinear analysis of the cooperation of strategic alliances through stochastic catastrophe theory

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yan; Hu, Bin; Wu, Jiang; Zhang, Jianhua

2014-04-01

The excitation intervention of strategic alliance may change with the changes in the parameters of circumstance (e.g., external alliance tasks). As a result, the stable cooperation between members may suffer a complete unplanned betrayal at last. However, current perspectives on strategic alliances cannot adequately explain this transition mechanism. This study is a first attempt to analyze this nonlinear phenomenon through stochastic catastrophe theory (SCT). A stochastic dynamics model is constructed based on the cooperation of strategic alliance from the perspective of evolutionary game theory. SCT explains the discontinuous changes caused by the changes in environmental parameters. Theoretically, we identify conditions where catastrophe can occur in the cooperation of alliance members.

Polar catastrophe at the MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa

2016-11-14

First principles calculations, based on density functional theory, are used to investigate the structural and electronic properties of the epitaxial MgO(100)/SnO2(110) interface of wide band gap insulators. Depending on the interface termination, nonmagnetic metallic and half-metallic interface states are observed. The formation of these states is explained by a polar catastrophe model for nonpolar-polar interfaces. Strong lattice distortions and buckling develop in SnO2, which influence the interface properties as the charge discontinuity is partially screened. Already a single unit cell of SnO2 is sufficient to drive the polar catastrophe scenario. © 2016 The Royal Society of Chemistry.

Triggering conditions and depositional characteristics of a disastrous debris flow event in Zhouqu city, Gansu Province, northwestern China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. Tang

2011-11-01

Full Text Available On 7 August 2010, catastrophic debris flows were triggered by a rainstorm in the catchments of the Sanyanyu and Luojiayu torrents, Zhouqu County, Gansu Province northwestern China. These two debris flows originated shortly after a rainstorm with an intensity of 77.3 mm h⁻¹ and transported a total volume of about 2.2 million m³, which was deposited on an existing debris fan and into a river. This catastrophic event killed 1765 people living on this densely urbanised fan. The poorly sorted sediment contains boulders up to 3–4 m in diameter. In this study, the geomorphological features of both debris flow catchment areas are analyzed based on the interpretation of high-resolution remote sensing imagery combined with field investigation. The characteristics of the triggering rainfall and the initiation of the debris flow occurrence are discussed. Using empirical equations, the peak velocities and discharges of the debris flows were estimated to be around 9.7 m s⁻¹ and 1358 m³ s⁻¹ for the Sanyanyu torrent and 11 m s⁻¹ and 572 m³ s⁻¹ for the Luojiayu torrent. The results of this study contribute to a better understanding of the conditions leading to catastrophic debris flow events.

Luminescence dosimetry using building materials and personal objects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goeksu, H. Y.; Bailiff, I. K.

2006-01-01

There is a growing public awareness of the risk of accidental radiation exposure due to ageing nuclear power installations, illegal dumping of nuclear waste and terrorist activities, and of the consequential health risks to populations in addition to social and economic disturbance extending beyond national boundaries. In the event of catastrophic incidents where no direct radiation monitoring data are available, the application of retrospective dosimetry techniques such as luminescence may be employed with materials from the immediate environment to confirm values of cumulative gamma dose to compare with or augment computational modeling calculations. Application of the method to post-Chernobyl studies has resulted in the development of new procedures using fired building materials with the capability to measure cumulative doses owing to artificial sources of gamma radiation as low as 20 mGy. Combined with Monte Carlo simulations of photon transport, values of cumulative dose in brick can be presented in a form suitable for use in dose-reconstruction efforts. Recent investigations have also shown that certain types of cementitious building material, including concrete, mortar and plaster, and personal objects in the form of telephone cards containing microchips and dental ceramics have the potential to be used for retrospective dosimetry. Examples of the most recent research concerning new materials and examples of application to sites in the Former Soviet Union are discussed. (authors)

Do changes in the frequency, magnitude and timing of extreme climatic events threaten the population viability of coastal birds?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Pol, Martijn; Ens, Bruno J.; Heg, Dik; Brouwer, Lyanne; Krol, Johan; Maier, Martin; Exo, Klaus-Michael; Oosterbeek, Kees; Lok, Tamar; Eising, Corine M.; Koffijberg, Kees

P>1. Climate change encompasses changes in both the means and the extremes of climatic variables, but the population consequences of the latter are intrinsically difficult to study. 2. We investigated whether the frequency, magnitude and timing of rare but catastrophic flooding events have changed

Application of catastrophe theory to a point model for bumpy torus with neoclassical non-resonant electrons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Punjabi, A; Vahala, G [College of William and Mary, Williamsburg, VA (USA). Dept. of Physics

1983-12-01

The point model for the toroidal core plasma in the ELMO Bumpy Torus (with neoclassical non-resonant electrons) is examined in the light of catastrophe theory. Even though the point model equations do not constitute a gradient dynamic system, the equilibrium surfaces are similar to those of the canonical cusp catastrophe. The point model is then extended to incorporate ion cyclotron resonance heating. A detailed parametric study of the equilibria is presented. Further, the nonlinear time evolution of these equilibria is studied, and it is observed that the point model obeys the delay convention (and hence hysteresis) and shows catastrophes at the fold edges of the equilibrium surfaces. Tentative applications are made to experimental results.

Astrophysics: Is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Science.gov (United States)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-01

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Astrophysics: is a doomsday catastrophe likely?

Science.gov (United States)

Tegmark, Max; Bostrom, Nick

2005-12-08

The risk of a doomsday scenario in which high-energy physics experiments trigger the destruction of the Earth has been estimated to be minuscule. But this may give a false sense of security: the fact that the Earth has survived for so long does not necessarily mean that such disasters are unlikely, because observers are, by definition, in places that have avoided destruction. Here we derive a new upper bound of one per billion years (99.9% confidence level) for the exogenous terminal-catastrophe rate that is free of such selection bias, using calculations based on the relatively late formation time of Earth.

Timber Price Dynamics Following a Natural Catastrophe

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey P. Prestemon; Thomas P. Holmes

2000-01-01

Catastrophic shocks to existing stocks of a renewable resource can cause long-run price shifts. With timber, these long-run price shifts may be accompanied by a short-run price drop due to salvage. Hurricane Hugo damaged 20% of southern pine timber in the South Carolina Coastal Plain in 1989. To estimate the short- and long-run effects of the hurricane on the prices of timber stocks, we estimated an intervention model of the residuals of cointegration of South Carolina sawtimber and pulpwood ...

Pain catastrophizing as a risk factor for chronic pain after total knee arthroplasty: a systematic review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burns LC

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Lindsay C Burns,1–3 Sarah E Ritvo,1 Meaghan K Ferguson,1 Hance Clarke,3–5 Ze’ev Seltzer,3,5 Joel Katz1,3–5 1Department of Psychology, York University, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Arthritis Research Centre of Canada, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Department of Anesthesia and Pain Management, Toronto General Hospital, Toronto, ON, Canada; 4Department of Anesthesia, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 5Centre for the Study of Pain, Faculties of Dentistry and Medicine, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada Background: Total knee arthroplasty (TKA is a common and costly surgical procedure. Despite high success rates, many TKA patients develop chronic pain in the months and years following surgery, constituting a public health burden. Pain catastrophizing is a construct that reflects anxious preoccupation with pain, inability to inhibit pain-related fears, amplification of the significance of pain vis-à-vis health implications, and a sense of helplessness regarding pain. Recent research suggests that it may be an important risk factor for untoward TKA outcomes. To clarify this impact, we systematically reviewed the literature to date on pain catastrophizing as a prospective predictor of chronic pain following TKA. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, and PsycINFO databases to identify articles related to pain catastrophizing, TKA, risk models, and chronic pain. We reviewed titles and abstracts to identify original research articles that met our specified inclusion criteria. Included articles were then rated for methodological quality. including methodological quality. Due to heterogeneity in follow-up, analyses, and outcomes reported across studies, a quantitative meta-analysis could not be performed. Results: We identified six prospective longitudinal studies with small-to-mid-sized samples that met the inclusion criteria. Despite considerable variability in reported pain outcomes, pain catastrophizing was identified as a significant

Catastrophic Disruption Threshold and Maximum Deflection from Kinetic Impact

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, A. F.

2017-12-01

The use of a kinetic impactor to deflect an asteroid on a collision course with Earth was described in the NASA Near-Earth Object Survey and Deflection Analysis of Alternatives (2007) as the most mature approach for asteroid deflection and mitigation. The NASA DART mission will demonstrate asteroid deflection by kinetic impact at the Potentially Hazardous Asteroid 65803 Didymos in October, 2022. The kinetic impactor approach is considered to be applicable with warning times of 10 years or more and with hazardous asteroid diameters of 400 m or less. In principle, a larger kinetic impactor bringing greater kinetic energy could cause a larger deflection, but input of excessive kinetic energy will cause catastrophic disruption of the target, leaving possibly large fragments still on collision course with Earth. Thus the catastrophic disruption threshold limits the maximum deflection from a kinetic impactor. An often-cited rule of thumb states that the maximum deflection is 0.1 times the escape velocity before the target will be disrupted. It turns out this rule of thumb does not work well. A comparison to numerical simulation results shows that a similar rule applies in the gravity limit, for large targets more than 300 m, where the maximum deflection is roughly the escape velocity at momentum enhancement factor β=2. In the gravity limit, the rule of thumb corresponds to pure momentum coupling (μ=1/3), but simulations find a slightly different scaling μ=0.43. In the smaller target size range that kinetic impactors would apply to, the catastrophic disruption limit is strength-controlled. A DART-like impactor won't disrupt any target asteroid down to significantly smaller size than the 50 m below which a hazardous object would not penetrate the atmosphere in any case unless it is unusually strong.

Giant caldera in the Arctic Ocean: Evidence of the catastrophic eruptive event.

Science.gov (United States)

Piskarev, Alexey; Elkina, Daria

2017-04-10

A giant caldera located in the eastern segment of the Gakkel Ridge could be firstly seen on the bathymetric map of the Arctic Ocean published in 1999. In 2014, seismic and multibeam echosounding data were acquired at the location. The caldera is 80 km long, 40 km wide and 1.2 km deep. The total volume of ejected volcanic material is estimated as no less than 3000 km 3 placing it into the same category with the largest Quaternary calderas (Yellowstone and Toba). Time of the eruption is estimated as ~1.1 Ma. Thin layers of the volcanic material related to the eruption had been identified in sedimentary cores located about 1000 km away from the Gakkel Ridge. The Gakkel Ridge Caldera is the single example of a supervolcano in the rift zone of the Mid-Oceanic Ridge System.

Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R.; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-01-01

Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal’s second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away.

Disentangling phase transitions and critical points in the proton–neutron interacting boson model by catastrophe theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J.E. García-Ramos

2014-09-01

Full Text Available We introduce the basic concepts of catastrophe theory needed to derive analytically the phase diagram of the proton–neutron interacting boson model (IBM-2. Previous studies [1–3] were based on numerical solutions. We here explain the whole IBM-2 phase diagram including the precise order of the phase transitions in terms of the cusp catastrophe.

Assessing uncertainty in extreme events: Applications to risk-based decision making in interdependent infrastructure sectors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barker, Kash; Haimes, Yacov Y.

2009-01-01

Risk-based decision making often relies upon expert probability assessments, particularly in the consequences of disruptive events and when such events are extreme or catastrophic in nature. Naturally, such expert-elicited probability distributions can be fraught with errors, as they describe events which occur very infrequently and for which only sparse data exist. This paper presents a quantitative framework, the extreme event uncertainty sensitivity impact method (EE-USIM), for measuring the sensitivity of extreme event consequences to uncertainties in the parameters of the underlying probability distribution. The EE-USIM is demonstrated with the Inoperability input-output model (IIM), a model with which to evaluate the propagation of inoperability throughout an interdependent set of economic and infrastructure sectors. The EE-USIM also makes use of a two-sided power distribution function generated by expert elicitation of extreme event consequences

Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hachisu, I; Sugimoto, D [Tokyo Univ. (Japan). Coll. of General Education

1978-07-01

Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes.

Gravothermal catastrophe and negative specific heat of self-gravitating systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hachisu, Izumi; Sugimoto, Daiichiro

1978-01-01

Thermodynamics of self-gravitating gas system, which is enclosed by an adiabatic spherical wall, is discussed. When the temperature distribution is isothermal, the system is in thermodynamic equilibrium in the sense that the first order variation of the total entropy of the system vanishes. However, the second order variation of the total entropy may be positive, when the effect of gravity exceeds a certain limit. Then, the system may evolve to make its entropy increase. This is the gravothermal catastrophe, which was pointed out first by Antonov in 1962, but for which some questions were raised concerning its reality. In the present paper, this catastrophe is analysed by extending functional space of variation to include non-isothermal perturbations. It results in two merits: It is most convenient to make a close relation with usual concepts in the thermodynamics of irreversible process, and the present formulation does not contain any singular quantities which brought a confusion in the interpretation of the real physical processes. (author)

Child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain is associated with procedural fear in children: a study in children with diabetes and their mothers.

Science.gov (United States)

Vervoort, T; Goubert, L; Vandenbossche, H; Van Aken, S; Matthys, D; Crombez, G

2011-12-01

The contribution of the child's and parents' catastrophizing about pain was explored in explaining procedural pain and fear in children. Procedural fear and pain were investigated in 44 children with Type I diabetes undergoing a finger prick. The relationships between parents' catastrophizing and parents' own fear and estimates of their child's pain were also investigated. The children and their mothers completed questionnaires prior to a routine consultation with the diabetes physician. Children completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale for Children (PCS-C) and provided ratings of their experienced pain and fear on a 0-10 numerical rating scale (NRS). Parents completed a situation-specific measure of the Pain Catastrophizing Scale For Parents (PCS-P) d provided estimates of their child's pain and their own experienced fear on a 0-10 NRS. Analyses indicated that higher catastrophizing by children was associated with more fear and pain during the finger prick. Scores for parents' catastrophzing about their children's pain were positively related to parents' scores for their own fear, estimates of their children's pain, and child-reported fear, but not the amount of pain reported by the child. The findings attest to the importance of assessing for and targeting child and parents' catastrophizing about pain. Addressing catastrophizing and related fears and concerns of both parents and children may be necessary to assure appropriate self-management. Further investigation of the mechanisms relating catastrophizing to deleterious outcomes is warranted.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

Science.gov (United States)

Brummitt, Charles D; Sethi, Rajiv; Watts, Duncan J

2014-01-01

We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par) can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe), causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

Inside money, procyclical leverage, and banking catastrophes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles D Brummitt

Full Text Available We explore a model of the interaction between banks and outside investors in which the ability of banks to issue inside money (short-term liabilities believed to be convertible into currency at par can generate a collapse in asset prices and widespread bank insolvency. The banks and investors share a common belief about the future value of certain long-term assets, but they have different objective functions; changes to this common belief result in portfolio adjustments and trade. Positive belief shocks induce banks to buy risky assets from investors, and the banks finance those purchases by issuing new short-term liabilities. Negative belief shocks induce banks to sell assets in order to reduce their chance of insolvency to a tolerably low level, and they supply more assets at lower prices, which can result in multiple market-clearing prices. A sufficiently severe negative shock causes the set of equilibrium prices to contract (in a manner given by a cusp catastrophe, causing prices to plummet discontinuously and banks to become insolvent. Successive positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude do not cancel; rather, a banking catastrophe can occur even if beliefs simply return to their initial state. Capital requirements can prevent crises by curtailing the expansion of balance sheets when beliefs become more optimistic, but they can also force larger price declines. Emergency asset price supports can be understood as attempts by a central bank to coordinate expectations on an equilibrium with solvency.

Multidimensional poverty and catastrophic health spending in the mountainous regions of Myanmar, Nepal and India.

Science.gov (United States)

Mohanty, Sanjay K; Agrawal, Nand Kishor; Mahapatra, Bidhubhusan; Choudhury, Dhrupad; Tuladhar, Sabarnee; Holmgren, E Valdemar

2017-01-18

Economic burden to households due to out-of-pocket expenditure (OOPE) is large in many Asian countries. Though studies suggest increasing household poverty due to high OOPE in developing countries, studies on association of multidimensional poverty and household health spending is limited. This paper tests the hypothesis that the multidimensionally poor are more likely to incur catastrophic health spending cutting across countries. Data from the Poverty and Vulnerability Assessment (PVA) Survey carried out by the International Center for Integrated Mountain Development (ICIMOD) has been used in the analyses. The PVA survey was a comprehensive household survey that covered the mountainous regions of India, Nepal and Myanmar. A total of 2647 households from India, 2310 households in Nepal and 4290 households in Myanmar covered under the PVA survey. Poverty is measured in a multidimensional framework by including the dimensions of education, income and energy, water and sanitation using the Alkire and Foster method. Health shock is measured using the frequency of illness, family sickness and death of any family member in a reference period of one year. Catastrophic health expenditure is defined as 40% above the household's capacity to pay. Results suggest that about three-fifths of the population in Myanmar, two-fifths of the population in Nepal and one-third of the population in India are multidimensionally poor. About 47% of the multidimensionally poor in India had incurred catastrophic health spending compared to 35% of the multidimensionally non-poor and the pattern was similar in both Nepal and Myanmar. The odds of incurring catastrophic health spending was 56% more among the multidimensionally poor than among the multidimensionally non-poor [95% CI: 1.35-1.76]. While health shocks to households are consistently significant predictors of catastrophic health spending cutting across country of residence, the educational attainment of the head of the household is

Climate Catastrophe - The Giant Swindle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Doerell, P. E.

1998-01-01

Energy is the life-blood of civilization. More than 80% of global energy is supplied by fossil fuels. And this will continue for the foreseeable future - if an implementation of the Kyoto Protocol does not lead to a dramatic decrease of these fuels causing worldwide turmoil of unprecedented dimensions. However, the scaremongering with a 'climate catastrophe' allegedly caused by 'greenhouse gas' emissions from the burning of fossil fuels is a huge hoax. Its only 'scientific' base is the IPCC management's enigmatic assessment: 'The balance of evidence suggests a discernable human influence on climate'. But even IPCC had to admit at the World Energy Conference in Tokyo in 1996: 'We have no evidence'. And all the scaremongering assertions of the protagonists of 'global warming' have been convincingly refuted by the world elite of scientists. This paper will: - show how the whole anti-CO 2 campaign has been manipulated from the very beginning till today; - give great many scientific and logical reason why the arguments of the scaremongers are incorrect; - outline the catastrophic economic and social consequences of the proposed anti-CO 2 measures - without any benefit for the environment of climate; - name the driving forces behind this campaign and their interests. The witchhunt against CO 2 is an incredible scientific and political scandal, CO 2 does not damage the environment at all, and labelling it a 'climate killer' is absurd. On the contrary, this gas is vital for the life on our plant, and a stronger concentration of CO 2 will be beneficial by doubling plant growth and with this combatting global famine. And to pretend that we could influence - with a CO 2 tax - the climate, is insane arrogance. Man is absolutely helpless when confronted with the forces of nature. The squandering of multimillions USD of taxpayer's money for the travelling circus of 'Climate summits' and the stultification of the population must stop. The 'global warming' lie is the biggest

Assessing catastrophic and impoverishing effects of health care payments in Uganda.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwesiga, Brendan; Zikusooka, Charlotte M; Ataguba, John E

2015-01-22

Direct out-of-pocket payments for health care are recognised as limiting access to health care services and also endangering the welfare of households. In Uganda, such payments comprise a large portion of total health financing. This study assesses the catastrophic and impoverishing impact of paying for health care out-of-pocket in Uganda. Using data from the Uganda National Household Surveys 2009/10, the catastrophic impact of out-of-pocket health care payments is defined using thresholds that vary with household income. The impoverishing effect of out-of-pocket health care payments is assessed using the Ugandan national poverty line and the World Bank poverty line ($1.25/day). A high level and intensity of both financial catastrophe and impoverishment due to out-of-pocket payments are recorded. Using an initial threshold of 10% of household income, about 23% of Ugandan households face financial ruin. Based on both the $1.25/day and the Ugandan poverty lines, about 4% of the population are further impoverished by such payments. This represents a relative increase in poverty head count of 17.1% and 18.1% respectively. The absence of financial protection in Uganda's health system calls for concerted action. Currently, out-of-pocket payments account for a large share of total health financing and there is no pooled prepayment system available. There is therefore a need to move towards mandatory prepayment. In this way, people could access the needed health services without any associated financial consequence.

Material control study: a directed graph and fault tree procedure for adversary event set generation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lambert, H.E.; Lim, J.J.; Gilman, F.M.

1978-01-01

In work for the United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Lawrence Livermore Laboratory is developing an assessment procedure to evaluate the effectiveness of a potential nuclear facility licensee's material control (MC) system. The purpose of an MC system is to prevent the theft of special nuclear material such as plutonium and highly enriched uranium. The key in the assessment procedure is the generation and analysis of the adversary event sets by a directed graph and fault-tree methodology

Construction and updating of event models in auditory event processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Huff, Markus; Maurer, Annika E; Brich, Irina; Pagenkopf, Anne; Wickelmaier, Florian; Papenmeier, Frank

2018-02-01

Humans segment the continuous stream of sensory information into distinct events at points of change. Between 2 events, humans perceive an event boundary. Present theories propose changes in the sensory information to trigger updating processes of the present event model. Increased encoding effort finally leads to a memory benefit at event boundaries. Evidence from reading time studies (increased reading times with increasing amount of change) suggest that updating of event models is incremental. We present results from 5 experiments that studied event processing (including memory formation processes and reading times) using an audio drama as well as a transcript thereof as stimulus material. Experiments 1a and 1b replicated the event boundary advantage effect for memory. In contrast to recent evidence from studies using visual stimulus material, Experiments 2a and 2b found no support for incremental updating with normally sighted and blind participants for recognition memory. In Experiment 3, we replicated Experiment 2a using a written transcript of the audio drama as stimulus material, allowing us to disentangle encoding and retrieval processes. Our results indicate incremental updating processes at encoding (as measured with reading times). At the same time, we again found recognition performance to be unaffected by the amount of change. We discuss these findings in light of current event cognition theories. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Systematic care management: a comprehensive approach to catastrophic injury management applied to a catastrophic burn injury population--clinical, utilization, economic, and outcome data in support of the model.

Science.gov (United States)

Kucan, John; Bryant, Ernest; Dimick, Alan; Sundance, Paula; Cope, Nathan; Richards, Reginald; Anderson, Chris

2010-01-01

The new standard for successful burn care encompasses both patient survival and the burn patient's long-term quality of life. To provide optimal long-term recovery from catastrophic injuries, including catastrophic burns, an outcome-based model using a new technology called systematic care management (SCM) has been developed. SCM provides a highly organized system of management throughout the spectrum of care that provides access to outcome data, consistent oversight, broader access to expert providers, appropriate allocation of resources, and greater understanding of total costs. Data from a population of 209 workers' compensation catastrophic burn cases with a mean TBSA of 27.9% who were managed under the SCM model of care were analyzed. The data include treatment type, cost, return to work, and outcomes achieved. Mean duration of management to achieve all guaranteed outcomes was 20 months. Of the 209 injured workers, 152 (72.7%) achieved sufficient recovery to be released to return to work, of which 97 (46.8%) were both released and competitively employed. Assessment of 10 domains of functional independence indicated that 47.2% of injured workers required total assistance at initiation of SCM. However, at termination of SCM, 84% of those injured workers were fully independent in the 10 functional activities. When compared with other burn research outcome data, the results support the value of the SCM model of care.

Repeated catastrophic valley infill following medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya.

Science.gov (United States)

Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Bernhardt, Anne; Stolle, Amelie; Hoelzmann, Philipp; Adhikari, Basanta R; Andermann, Christoff; Tofelde, Stefanie; Merchel, Silke; Rugel, Georg; Fort, Monique; Korup, Oliver

2016-01-08

Geomorphic footprints of past large Himalayan earthquakes are elusive, although they are urgently needed for gauging and predicting recovery times of seismically perturbed mountain landscapes. We present evidence of catastrophic valley infill following at least three medieval earthquakes in the Nepal Himalaya. Radiocarbon dates from peat beds, plant macrofossils, and humic silts in fine-grained tributary sediments near Pokhara, Nepal's second-largest city, match the timing of nearby M > 8 earthquakes in ~1100, 1255, and 1344 C.E. The upstream dip of tributary valley fills and x-ray fluorescence spectrometry of their provenance rule out local sources. Instead, geomorphic and sedimentary evidence is consistent with catastrophic fluvial aggradation and debris flows that had plugged several tributaries with tens of meters of calcareous sediment from a Higher Himalayan source >60 kilometers away. Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

Catastrophic Disruption of Comet ISON

Science.gov (United States)

Keane, Jacqueline V.; Milam, Stefanie N.; Coulson, Iain M.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Sekanina, Zdenek; Kracht, Rainer; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J.; Charnley, Steven B.

2016-01-01

We report submillimeter 450 and 850 microns dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31-0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 (rh?=?0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60? (greater than 10(exp 5) km in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 microns image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing approximately 5.2?×?10(exp 10) kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

OpenAIRE

Hewitt, Kenneth; Mehta, Manjari

2012-01-01

Cet article aborde la question des risques et des catastrophes en montagne. Il vise non pas à dissocier mais plutôt à replacer ces concepts au cœur des questions de sécurité publique et de développement des États contemporains. Cette approche des catastrophes se distingue des précédentes, pourtant considérablement renforcées par les stéréotypes habituels, propres à l’environnement montagnard. De fait, celles-ci étaient jusqu’alors centrées sur l’aléa naturel, sur son caractère extrême et impr...

Pain acceptance potentially mediates the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgery outcomes among compensated lumbar fusion patients

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dance C

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Cassie Dance,1 M. Scott DeBerard,1 Jessica Gundy Cuneo2 1Department of Psychology, Utah State University, Logan, UT, 2Department of Psychiatry, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA Purpose: Chronic low back pain is highly prevalent and often treatment recalcitrant condition, particularly among workers’ compensation patients. There is a need to identify psychological factors that may predispose such patients to pain chronicity. The primary aim of this study was to examine whether pain acceptance potentially mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and post-surgical outcomes in a sample of compensated lumbar fusion patients.Patients and methods: Patients insured with the Workers Compensation Fund of Utah and who were at least 2 years post-lumbar fusion surgery completed an outcome survey. These data were obtained from a prior retrospective-cohort study that administered measures of pain catastrophizing, pain acceptance, mental and physical health, and disability.Results: Of the 101 patients who completed the outcome survey, 75.2% were male with a mean age of 42.42 years and predominantly identified as White (97.0%. The majority of the participants had a posterior lumbar interbody fusion surgery. Pain acceptance, including activity engagement and pain willingness, was significantly correlated with better physical health and mental health, and lower disability rates. Pain catastrophizing was inversely correlated with measures of pain acceptance (activity engagement r=–0.67, p<0.01, pain willingness r=–0.73, p<0.01 as well as the outcome measures: mental health, physical health, and disability. Pain acceptance significantly mediated the relationship between pain catastrophizing and both mental and physical health and also the relationship between pain catastrophizing and disability. Conclusion: This study demonstrated that the relationship between pain catastrophizing and negative patient outcomes was potentially mediated

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fadden, M.; Yardumian, J.

1993-07-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List provides brief summaries of hundreds of safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Events are described under the categories: Bomb-related, Intrusion, Missing/Allegedly Stolen, Transportation-related, Tampering/Vandalism, Arson, Firearms-related, Radiological Sabotage, Non-radiological Sabotage, and Miscellaneous. Because of the public interest, the Miscellaneous category also includes events reported involving source material, byproduct material, and natural uranium, which are exempt from safeguards requirements. Information in the event descriptions was obtained from official NRC sources

Laboratory investigations into fracture propagation characteristics of rock material

Science.gov (United States)

Prasad, B. N. V. Siva; Murthy, V. M. S. R.

2018-04-01

After Industrial Revolution, demand of materials for building up structures have increased enormously. Unfortunately, failures of such structures resulted in loss of life and property. Rock is anisotropic and discontinuous in nature with inherent flaws or so-called discontinuities in it. Rock is apparently used for construction in mining, civil, tunnelling, hydropower, geothermal and nuclear sectors [1]. Therefore, the strength of the structure built up considering rockmass as the construction material needs proper technical evaluation during designing stage itself to prevent and predict the scenarios of catastrophic failures due to these inherent fractures [2]. In this study, samples collected from nine different drilling sites have been investigated in laboratory for understanding the fracture propagation characteristics in rock. Rock material properties, ultrasonic velocities through pulse transmission technique and Mode I Fracture Toughness Testing of different variants of Dolomites and Graywackes are determined in laboratory and the resistance of the rock material to catastrophic crack extension or propagation has been determined. Based on the Fracture Toughness values and the rock properties, critical Energy Release Rates have been estimated. However further studies in this direction is to be carried out to understand the fracture propagation characteristics in three-dimensional space.

Crisis management aspects of bam catastrophic earthquake: review article.

Science.gov (United States)

Sadeghi-Bazargani, Homayoun; Azami-Aghdash, Saber; Kazemi, Abdolhassan; Ziapour, Behrad

2015-01-01

Bam earthquake was the most catastrophic natural disasters in recent years. The aim of this study was to review different aspects of crisis management during and after the catastrophic earthquake in Bam City, Iran. Data needed for this systematic review were collected through searching PubMed, EMBASE and SID databases, for the period from 2003 to 2011. Keywords included earthquake, Iran and Bam earthquake. The data were summarized and were analyzed using Content Analysis. Out of 422 articles, 25 articles were included in the study. Crisis Management aspects and existing pitfalls were classified into seven categories including planning and organization, human resource management, management of logistics, international humanitarian aids, field performance of the military and security forces, health and medical service provision, and information management. Positive aspects and major pitfalls of crisis management have been introduced in all the mentioned categories. The available evidence indicated poor crisis management during Bam earthquake that resulted in aggravating the losses as well as diminishing the effect of interventions. Thus, concerning the importance of different aspects of the crisis management and the high prevalence of disasters in Iran, the observed vulnerability in disaster management process should be addressed.

Plasma Exchange in the Management of Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimitri Titeca-Beauport

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. Report of a case of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with multiple organ involvement leading to a life-threatening condition despite early combination corticosteroid and heparin therapy. Initiation of plasma exchange led to rapid improvement of the patient’s general condition. Design. Case report. Setting. University teaching hospital medical intensive care unit. Patient. Single case: 52-year-old man hospitalized for catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS with cardiac, renal, and cutaneous involvement. Despite early methylprednisolone and heparin therapy, the patient’s condition progressively deteriorated, resulting in acute renal failure, right adrenal hemorrhage, and pulmonary involvement, leading to acute respiratory distress on day 6, requiring high-flow nasal cannula oxygen therapy with FiO2 of 1.0. Interventions. Plasma exchange was started on day 6. Endpoints and Main Results. A marked improvement of the patient’s general condition was observed after initiation of plasma exchange, with successful weaning of oxygen therapy and normalization of platelet count, troponin, and serum creatinine within four days. Conclusions. This case illustrates the efficacy of plasma exchange in CAPS and the difficulty for physicians to determine the optimal timing of plasma exchange.

A catastrophe model for the prospect-utility theory question.

Science.gov (United States)

Oliva, Terence A; McDade, Sean R

2008-07-01

Anomalies have played a big part in the analysis of decision making under risk. Both expected utility and prospect theories were born out of anomalies exhibited by actual decision making behavior. Since the same individual can use both expected utility and prospect approaches at different times, it seems there should be a means of uniting the two. This paper turns to nonlinear dynamical systems (NDS), specifically a catastrophe model, to help suggest an 'out of the box' line of solution toward integration. We use a cusp model to create a value surface whose control dimensions are involvement and gains versus losses. By including 'involvement' as a variable the importance of the individual's psychological state is included, and it provides a rationale for how decision makers' changes from expected utility to prospect might occur. Additionally, it provides a possible explanation for what appears to be even more irrational decisions that individuals make when highly emotionally involved. We estimate the catastrophe model using a sample of 997 gamblers who attended a casino and compare it to the linear model using regression. Hence, we have actual data from individuals making real bets, under real conditions.

Three Dimensional Simulation of the Baneberry Nuclear Event

Science.gov (United States)

Lomov, Ilya N.; Antoun, Tarabay H.; Wagoner, Jeff; Rambo, John T.

2004-07-01

Baneberry, a 10-kiloton nuclear event, was detonated at a depth of 278 m at the Nevada Test Site on December 18, 1970. Shortly after detonation, radioactive gases emanating from the cavity were released into the atmosphere through a shock-induced fissure near surface ground zero. Extensive geophysical investigations, coupled with a series of 1D and 2D computational studies were used to reconstruct the sequence of events that led to the catastrophic failure. However, the geological profile of the Baneberry site is complex and inherently three-dimensional, which meant that some geological features had to be simplified or ignored in the 2D simulations. This left open the possibility that features unaccounted for in the 2D simulations could have had an important influence on the eventual containment failure of the Baneberry event. This paper presents results from a high-fidelity 3D Baneberry simulation based on the most accurate geologic and geophysical data available. The results are compared with available data, and contrasted against the results of the previous 2D computational studies.

Well below 2 °C: Mitigation strategies for avoiding dangerous to catastrophic climate changes

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Yangyang; Ramanathan, Veerabhadran

2017-09-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to “well below 2 °C.” Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high-impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend.

Overfishing reduces resilience of kelp beds to climate-driven catastrophic phase shift.

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S D; Johnson, C R; Frusher, S D; Ridgway, K R

2009-12-29

A key consideration in assessing impacts of climate change is the possibility of synergistic effects with other human-induced stressors. In the ocean realm, climate change and overfishing pose two of the greatest challenges to the structure and functioning of marine ecosystems. In eastern Tasmania, temperate coastal waters are warming at approximately four times the global ocean warming average, representing the fastest rate of warming in the Southern Hemisphere. This has driven range extension of the ecologically important long-spined sea urchin (Centrostephanus rodgersii), which has now commenced catastrophic overgrazing of productive Tasmanian kelp beds leading to loss of biodiversity and important rocky reef ecosystem services. Coincident with the overgrazing is heavy fishing of reef-based predators including the spiny lobster Jasus edwardsii. By conducting experiments inside and outside Marine Protected Areas we show that fishing, by removing large predatory lobsters, has reduced the resilience of kelp beds against the climate-driven threat of the sea urchin and thus increased risk of catastrophic shift to widespread sea urchin barrens. This shows that interactions between multiple human-induced stressors can exacerbate nonlinear responses of ecosystems to climate change and limit the adaptive capacity of these systems. Management actions focused on reducing the risk of catastrophic phase shift in ecosystems are particularly urgent in the face of ongoing warming and unprecedented levels of predator removal from the world's oceans.

Risk indices of an ecological catastrophe because of a severe accident, its insurance, and their measurement units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pampuro, V.I.

2001-01-01

The critical analysis of the existing measurement units of the risk of an ecological catastrophe because of severe accidents is performed. The mistake of using the measurement unit 'reactor/year' for estimation of ecological catastrophe's consequences is shown. The complex for risk assessment by costs to ensure the ecological safety is introduced. The index of virtual accident insurance is suggested

Predicting Catastrophic Phase Inversion on the Basis of Droplet Coalescence Kinetics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vaessen, G.E.J.; Visschers, M.; Stein, H.N.

1996-01-01

A predictive model for catastrophic phase inversion, based on the kinetics of droplet breakup and coalescence, is presented here. Two inversion mechanisms can be distinguished, depending on the direction of the phase inversion process. With the surfactant predominantly present in the dispersed

Ensemble learning in fixed expansion layer networks for mitigating catastrophic forgetting.

Science.gov (United States)

Coop, Robert; Mishtal, Aaron; Arel, Itamar

2013-10-01

Catastrophic forgetting is a well-studied attribute of most parameterized supervised learning systems. A variation of this phenomenon, in the context of feedforward neural networks, arises when nonstationary inputs lead to loss of previously learned mappings. The majority of the schemes proposed in the literature for mitigating catastrophic forgetting were not data driven and did not scale well. We introduce the fixed expansion layer (FEL) feedforward neural network, which embeds a sparsely encoding hidden layer to help mitigate forgetting of prior learned representations. In addition, we investigate a novel framework for training ensembles of FEL networks, based on exploiting an information-theoretic measure of diversity between FEL learners, to further control undesired plasticity. The proposed methodology is demonstrated on a basic classification task, clearly emphasizing its advantages over existing techniques. The architecture proposed can be enhanced to address a range of computational intelligence tasks, such as regression problems and system control.

1.5 °C ? - Solutions for avoiding catastrophic climate change in this century

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Y.

2017-12-01

The historic Paris Agreement calls for limiting global temperature rise to "well below 2 °C." Because of uncertainties in emission scenarios, climate, and carbon cycle feedback, we interpret the Paris Agreement in terms of three climate risk categories and bring in considerations of low-probability (5%) high impact (LPHI) warming in addition to the central (˜50% probability) value. The current risk category of dangerous warming is extended to more categories, which are defined by us here as follows: >1.5 °C as dangerous; >3 °C as catastrophic; and >5 °C as unknown, implying beyond catastrophic, including existential threats. With unchecked emissions, the central warming can reach the dangerous level within three decades, with the LPHI warming becoming catastrophic by 2050. We outline a three-lever strategy to limit the central warming below the dangerous level and the LPHI below the catastrophic level, both in the near term (pollutant (SP) lever to mitigate short-lived climate pollutants, and the carbon extraction and sequestration (CES) lever to thin the atmospheric CO2 blanket. Pulling on both CN and SP levers and bending the emissions curve by 2020 can keep the central warming below dangerous levels. To limit the LPHI warming below dangerous levels, the CES lever must be pulled as well to extract as much as 1 trillion tons of CO2 before 2100 to both limit the preindustrial to 2100 cumulative net CO2 emissions to 2.2 trillion tons and bend the warming curve to a cooling trend. In addition to present the analysis above, I will also share (1) perspective on developed and developing world actions and interactions on climate solutions; (2) Prof V. Ramanathan's interactions with the Pontifical Academy of Sciences and other religious groups which are highly valuable to the interdisciplinary audience.

Statistical and machine learning approaches for the minimization of trigger errors in parametric earthquake catastrophe bonds

OpenAIRE

Calvet, Laura

2017-01-01

Catastrophe bonds are financial instruments designed to transfer risk of monetary losses arising from earthquakes, hurricanes, or floods to the capital markets. The insurance and reinsurance industry, governments, and private entities employ them frequently to obtain coverage. Parametric catastrophe bonds base their payments on physical features. For instance, given parameters such as magnitude of the earthquake and the location of its epicentre, the bond may pay a fixed amount or not pay at ...

Tatra's forests will recover from catastrophe for decades

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haluza, I.

2004-01-01

Windy tornado in Tatra's national park (TANAP, High Tatras, Slovakia) at the end of 2004 caused extensive ecological catastrophe and economic losses. Wind has totally damaged the trees in more than one fourth of forest area, which is administrated by state forests of TANAP. Next fourth of forest area has impaired structure. Mostly coniferous forests have fallen down not only in High Tatras, but also in Horehronie, Kysuce, Orava and Spis. According to estimates around 2.5 million cubic meters of wood have lain on the ground in High Tatras. This wood must be precipitately processed. In another regions totally from 800 to 900 thousands cubic meters are overcame by wind. Ecological catastrophe has come in High Tatras. Totally damaged large forests areas need to be recovered for long decades. 90 per cent of annual Slovakian wood cutting represents totally 2.5 million cubic meters. The state will invest in forest recovery from sale of calamity stuff. Reforestation of one hectare of forest costs from 80 to 90 thousands Slovak crowns (∼2666-3000 USD). Another remedies at the age to five years represent from 40 to 50 thousands Slovak crowns (1333-16666 USD). Around 1.6 billion Slovak crown (∼53.333 million USD) will be needed for reforestation of 12 thousands hectares of TANAP

Determinants of catastrophic health expenditure in iran.

Science.gov (United States)

Abolhallaje, M; Hasani, Sa; Bastani, P; Ramezanian, M; Kazemian, M

2013-01-01

This study will provide detailed specification of those variables and determinants of unpredictable health expenditure in Iran, and the requirements to reduce extensive effects of the factors affecting households' payments for health and other goods and services inappropriately. This study aims to identify measures of fair financing of health services and determinants of fair financing contribution, regarding the required share of households that prevents their catastrophic payments. In this regard, analysis of shares of households' expenditures on main groups of goods and services in urban and rural areas and in groups of deciles in the statistics from households' expenditure surveys was applied. The growth of spending in nominal values within the years 2002-2008 was considerably high and the rate for out-of-pocket payments is nearly the same or greater than the rate for total health expenditure. In 2008, urban and rural households in average pay 6.4% and 6.35% of their total expenditure on health services. Finally three categories of determinants of unfair and catastrophic payments by households were recognized in terms of households' socio-economic status, equality/inequality conditions of the distribution of risk of financing, and economic aspects of health expenditure distribution. While extending the total share of government and prepayment sources of financing health services are considered as the simplest policy for limiting out-of-pocket payments, indicators and policies introduced in this study could also be considered important and useful for the development of health sector and easing access to health services, irrespective of health financing fairness.

Academic Training: Predicting Natural Catastrophes

CERN Multimedia

Françoise Benz

2005-01-01

2005-2006 ACADEMIC TRAINING PROGRAMME LECTURE SERIES 12, 13, 14, 15, 16 December from 11:00 to 12:00 - Main Auditorium, bldg. 500 Predicting Natural Catastrophes E. OKAL / Northwestern University, Evanston, USA 1. Tsunamis -- Introduction Definition of phenomenon - basic properties of the waves Propagation and dispersion Interaction with coasts - Geological and societal effects Origin of tsunamis - natural sources Scientific activities in connection with tsunamis. Ideas about simulations 2. Tsunami generation The earthquake source - conventional theory The earthquake source - normal mode theory The landslide source Near-field observation - The Plafker index Far-field observation - Directivity 3. Tsunami warning General ideas - History of efforts Mantle magnitudes and TREMOR algorithms The challenge of 'tsunami earthquakes' Energy-moment ratios and slow earthquakes Implementation and the components of warning centers 4. Tsunami surveys Principles and methodologies Fifteen years of field surveys and re...

CATASTROPHIC DISRUPTION OF COMET ISON

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Keane, Jacqueline V.; Kleyna, Jan T.; Riesen, Timm-Emmanuel; Meech, Karen J. [Institute for Astronomy, University of Hawaii, 2680 Woodlawn Drive, Honolulu, HI 96822 (United States); Milam, Stefanie N.; Charnley, Steven B. [Astrochemistry Laboratory, NASA GSFC, MS 690, Greenbelt, MD 20771 (United States); Coulson, Iain M. [Joint Astronomy Center, 660 North Aohoku Place, Hilo, HI 96720 (United States); Sekanina, Zdenek [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, 4800 Oak Grove Drive, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Kracht, Rainer, E-mail: keane@ifa.hawaii.edu [Ostlandring 53, D-25335 Elmshorn, Schleswig-Holstein (Germany)

2016-11-10

We report submillimeter 450 and 850 μ m dust continuum observations for comet C/2012 S1 (ISON) obtained at heliocentric distances 0.31–0.08 au prior to perihelion on 2013 November 28 ( r {sub h} = 0.0125 au). These observations reveal a rapidly varying dust environment in which the dust emission was initially point-like. As ISON approached perihelion, the continuum emission became an elongated dust column spread out over as much as 60″ (>10{sup 5} km) in the anti-solar direction. Deconvolution of the November 28.04 850 μ m image reveals numerous distinct clumps consistent with the catastrophic disruption of comet ISON, producing ∼5.2 × 10{sup 10} kg of submillimeter-sized dust. Orbital computations suggest that the SCUBA-2 emission peak coincides with the comet's residual nucleus.

Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jebari, Karim

2014-01-01

Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling. (invited comment)

Of Malthus and Methuselah: does longevity treatment aggravate global catastrophic risks?

Science.gov (United States)

Jebari, Karim

2014-12-01

Global catastrophic risk is a term that refers to the risk of the occurrence of an event that kills at least millions of people across several continents. While it has been argued by a number of scholars that one major potential risk comes from technology, the obscure nature of future technologies makes it difficult to utilize traditional probabilistic risk for the meaningful study of these risks. This article describes an alternative approach and applies it to a research program that has attracted a considerable amount of resources recently: namely longevity research. The aim of this research is to delay or reverse the ageing process. This article argues that this research program is much more risky or less beneficial than its proponents argue. In particular, they tend to underestimate the concerns associated with the potentially drastic population growth that longevity treatment could cause. The ethical benefit often ascribed to longevity treatment is that such treatment would add more subjective life-years that are worth living. However, in light of contemporary environmental problems, such an increase of the human population might be reckless. Drastically reducing fertility to reduce risks associated with environmental stress would make the benefits of such technology much less compelling.

Earth's Largest Terrestrial Landslide (The Markagunt Gravity Slide of Southwest Utah): Insights from the Catastrophic Collapse of a Volcanic Field

Science.gov (United States)

Hacker, D. B.; Biek, R. F.; Rowley, P. D.

2015-12-01

The newly discovered Miocene Markagunt gravity slide (MGS; Utah, USA) represents the largest volcanic landslide structure on Earth. Recent geologic mapping of the MGS indicates that it was a large contiguous volcanic sheet of allochthonous andesitic mudflow breccias and lava flows, volcaniclastic rocks, and intertonguing regional ash-flow tuffs that blanketed an area of at least 5000 km2 with an estimated volume of ~3000 km3. From its breakaway zone in the Tushar and Mineral Mountains to its southern limits, the MGS is over 95 km long and at least 65 km wide. The MGS consists of four distinct structural segments: 1) a high-angle breakaway segment, 2) a bedding-plane segment, ~60 km long and ~65 km wide, typically located within the volcaniclastic Eocene-Oligocene Brian Head Formation, 3) a ramp segment ~1-2 km wide where the slide cuts upsection, and 4) a former land surface segment where the upper-plate moved at least 35 km over the Miocene landscape. The presence of basal and lateral cataclastic breccias, clastic dikes, jigsaw puzzle fracturing, internal shears, pseudotachylytes, and the overall geometry of the MGS show that it represents a single catastrophic emplacement event. The MGS represents gravitationally induced collapse of the southwest sector of the Oligocene to Miocene Marysvale volcanic field. We suggest that continuous growth of the Marysvale volcanic field, loading more volcanic rocks on a structurally weak Brian Head basement, created conditions necessary for gravity sliding. In addition, inflation of the volcanic pile due to multiple magmatic intrusions tilted the strata gently southward, inducing lateral spreading of the sub-volcanic rocks prior to failure. Although similar smaller-scale failures have been recognized from individual volcanoes, the MGS represents a new class of low frequency but high impact hazards associated with catastrophic sector collapse of large volcanic fields containing multiple volcanoes. The relationship of the MGS to

Significance of large Neptune-crossing objects for terrestrial catastrophism

Science.gov (United States)

Steel, D.

2014-07-01

Over the past few decades a substantial number of objects have been discovered on orbits beyond Neptune (i.e. transneptunian objects, in various sub-classes), crossing Neptune's orbit (here: the Neptune-crossers of interest), and also others crossing the orbits of any or all of the jovian planets (i.e. Centaurs). These range in size from tens of kilometres across to hundreds of kilometres and more. Although formally classified as minor planets/asteroids, plus a few dwarf planets, the physical reality of these objects is that they are giant comets. That is, they seem to be composed largely of ices and if they were to enter the inner solar system then they would demonstrate the commonly-observed behaviour of comets such as outgassing, and the formation of ion and dust tails. Commonly-observed cometary behaviour, however, also includes fragmentation events and sometimes complete disintegration for no apparent cause (such as tidal disruption or thermal stresses). One might therefore wonder what the implications would be for life on Earth and terrestrial catastrophism if and when one of these objects, say 100 to 500 kilometres in size, dropped into a short-period orbit with perihelion distance (q) less than 1 au; or even q ˜ 5 au, given what Jupiter's gravity might do to it. How often might such events occur? One way to address that question would be to conduct numerical integrations of suitable test orbits and identify how often small-q orbits result, but this comes up against the problem of identifying very-infrequent events (with annual probabilities per object perhaps of order 10^{-12}-10^{-10}. For example, Emel'yanenko et al. [1] recently followed test orbits for approximately 5 × 10^{14} particle-years (8,925 objects with 200 clones of each, for 300 Myr) but because these were selected on the basis of initial values of q only below 36 (rather than ˜30) au many were not immediately Neptune-crossers; however, many test particles did eventually migrate into small

Abstracts of papers of international scientific conference 'Ten Years After the Chernobyl Catastrophe (Scientific Aspects of Problem)'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Konoplya, E.F.; Amvros'ev, A.P.; Bogdevich, I.M.; Bondar', Yu.I.; Karaseva, E.I.; Lobanok, L.M.; Matsko, V.P.; Pikulik, M.M.; Rolevich, I.V.; Stozharov, A.N.; Yakushev, B.I.

1996-02-01

The collection is dedicated to the 10 anniversary of Chernobyl catastrophe and contains the results of researches carried out in Belarus, as well as in Ukraine and Russian Federation, on different aspects of the Chernobyl problems: radiation medicine and risks, biological radiation effects and their forecasting, agricultural radiology and radioecology, decontamination and radioactive waste management, socio-economic and psychologic problems caused by the Chernobyl Catastrophe. (authors)

Adverse Life Events and Emotional and Behavioral Problems in Adolescence: The Role of Non-Verbal Cognitive Ability and Negative Cognitive Errors

Science.gov (United States)

Flouri, Eirini; Panourgia, Constantina

2011-01-01

The aim of this study was to test whether negative cognitive errors (overgeneralizing, catastrophizing, selective abstraction, and personalizing) mediate the moderator effect of non-verbal cognitive ability on the association between adverse life events (life stress) and emotional and behavioral problems in adolescence. The sample consisted of 430…

Assessing the impoverishing effects, and factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic health care payments in Kenya.

Science.gov (United States)

Barasa, Edwine W; Maina, Thomas; Ravishankar, Nirmala

2017-02-06

Monitoring the incidence and intensity of catastrophic health expenditure, as well as the impoverishing effects of out of pocket costs to access healthcare, is a key part of benchmarking Kenya's progress towards reducing the financial burden that households experience when accessing healthcare. The study relies on data from the nationally-representative Kenya Household Expenditure and Utilization Survey conducted in 2013 (n =33,675). We undertook health equity analysis to estimate the incidence and intensity of catastrophic expenditure. Households were considered to have incurred catastrophic expenditures if their annual out of-pocket health expenditures exceeded 40% of their annual non-food expenditure. We assessed the impoverishing effects of out of pocket payments using the Kenya national poverty line. We distinguished between direct payments for healthcare such as payments for consultation, medicines, medical procedures, and total healthcare expenditure that includes direct healthcare payments and the cost of transportation to and from health facilities. We used logistic regression analysis to explore the factors associated with the incidence of catastrophic expenditures. When only direct payments to healthcare providers were considered, the incidence of catastrophic expenditures was 4.52%. When transport costs are included, the incidence of catastrophic expenditure increased to 6.58%. 453,470 Kenyans are pushed into poverty annually as a result of direct payments for healthcare. When the cost of transport is included, that number increases by more than one third to 619,541. Unemployment of the household head, presence of an elderly person, a person with a chronic ailment, a large household size, lower household social-economic status, and residence in marginalized regions of the country are significantly associated with increased odds of incurring catastrophic expenditures. Kenyan policy makers should prioritize extending pre-payment mechanisms to more

Rising cyclin-CDK levels order cell cycle events.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Catherine Oikonomou

Full Text Available Diverse mitotic events can be triggered in the correct order and time by a single cyclin-CDK. A single regulator could confer order and timing on multiple events if later events require higher cyclin-CDK than earlier events, so that gradually rising cyclin-CDK levels can sequentially trigger responsive events: the "quantitative model" of ordering.This 'quantitative model' makes predictions for the effect of locking cyclin at fixed levels for a protracted period: at low cyclin levels, early events should occur rapidly, while late events should be slow, defective, or highly variable (depending on threshold mechanism. We titrated the budding yeast mitotic cyclin Clb2 within its endogenous expression range to a stable, fixed level and measured time to occurrence of three mitotic events: growth depolarization, spindle formation, and spindle elongation, as a function of fixed Clb2 level. These events require increasingly more Clb2 according to their normal order of occurrence. Events occur efficiently and with low variability at fixed Clb2 levels similar to those observed when the events normally occur. A second prediction of the model is that increasing the rate of cyclin accumulation should globally advance timing of all events. Moderate (<2-fold overexpression of Clb2 accelerates all events of mitosis, resulting in consistently rapid sequential cell cycles. However, this moderate overexpression also causes a significant frequency of premature mitoses leading to inviability, suggesting that Clb2 expression level is optimized to balance the fitness costs of variability and catastrophe.We conclude that mitotic events are regulated by discrete cyclin-CDK thresholds. These thresholds are sequentially triggered as cyclin increases, yielding reliable order and timing. In many biological processes a graded input must be translated into discrete outputs. In such systems, expression of the central regulator is likely to be tuned to an optimum level, as we

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-07-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Because of public interest, the Miscellaneous category includes a few events which involve either source material, byproduct material, or natural uranium which are exempt from safeguards requirements. Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage, nonradiological sabotage, pre-1990 alcohol and drugs (involving reactor operators, security force members, or management persons), and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

Delayed cell death associated with mitotic catastrophe in γ-irradiated stem-like glioma cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Firat, Elke; Gaedicke, Simone; Tsurumi, Chizuko; Esser, Norbert; Weyerbrock, Astrid; Niedermann, Gabriele

2011-01-01

Stem-like tumor cells are regarded as highly resistant to ionizing radiation (IR). Previous studies have focused on apoptosis early after irradiation, and the apoptosis resistance observed has been attributed to reduced DNA damage or enhanced DNA repair compared to non-stem tumor cells. Here, early and late radioresponse of patient-derived stem-like glioma cells (SLGCs) and differentiated cells directly derived from them were examined for cell death mode and the influence of stem cell-specific growth factors. Primary SLGCs were propagated in serum-free medium with the stem-cell mitogens epidermal growth factor (EGF) and fibroblast growth factor-2 (FGF-2). Differentiation was induced by serum-containing medium without EGF and FGF. Radiation sensitivity was evaluated by assessing proliferation, clonogenic survival, apoptosis, and mitotic catastrophe. DNA damage-associated γH2AX as well as p53 and p21 expression were determined by Western blots. SLGCs failed to apoptose in the first 4 days after irradiation even at high single doses up to 10 Gy, but we observed substantial cell death later than 4 days postirradiation in 3 of 6 SLGC lines treated with 5 or 10 Gy. This delayed cell death was observed in 3 of the 4 SLGC lines with nonfunctional p53, was associated with mitotic catastrophe and occurred via apoptosis. The early apoptosis resistance of the SLGCs was associated with lower γH2AX compared to differentiated cells, but we found that the stem-cell culture cytokines EGF plus FGF-2 strongly reduce γH2AX levels. Nonetheless, in two p53-deficient SLGC lines examined γIR-induced apoptosis even correlated with EGF/FGF-induced proliferation and mitotic catastrophe. In a line containing CD133-positive and -negative stem-like cells, the CD133-positive cells proliferated faster and underwent more γIR-induced mitotic catastrophe. Our results suggest the importance of delayed apoptosis, associated mitotic catastrophe, and cellular proliferation for γIR-induced death of

Expected utility and catastrophic risk in a stochastic economy-climate model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ikefuji, M. [Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University, Osaka (Japan); Laeven, R.J.A.; Magnus, J.R. [Department of Econometrics and Operations Research, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands); Muris, C. [CentER, Tilburg University, Tilburg (Netherlands)

2010-11-15

In the context of extreme climate change, we ask how to conduct expected utility analysis in the presence of catastrophic risks. Economists typically model decision making under risk and uncertainty by expected utility with constant relative risk aversion (power utility); statisticians typically model economic catastrophes by probability distributions with heavy tails. Unfortunately, the expected utility framework is fragile with respect to heavy-tailed distributional assumptions. We specify a stochastic economy-climate model with power utility and explicitly demonstrate this fragility. We derive necessary and sufficient compatibility conditions on the utility function to avoid fragility and solve our stochastic economy-climate model for two examples of such compatible utility functions. We further develop and implement a procedure to learn the input parameters of our model and show that the model thus specified produces quite robust optimal policies. The numerical results indicate that higher levels of uncertainty (heavier tails) lead to less abatement and consumption, and to more investment, but this effect is not unlimited.

Elementary catastrophe theory modelling of Duffing's equation for seismic excitation of nuclear power facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alesso, H.P.

1979-01-01

Elementary catastrophe theory can provide conceptual insight into some aspects of a variety of problems in dynamics. It is a qualitative tool with some quantitative results. In this paper, it is applied to forced nonlinear vibrations of seismic disturbances, which may be approximated by Duffin's equation. The behavior of such a system fits naturally into ECT modelling, where changes in parameters of the system lead to 'jump' type behavior. The important conclusion is that nonlinear oscillators can exhibit elementary catastrophes, but the design engineer may be able to manipulate characteristics of the system in order to avoid the 'jump' behavior of the response. (Auth.)

Extreme climatic events: reducing ecological and social systems vulnerabilities; Evenements climatiques extremes: reduire les vulnerabilites des systemes ecologiques et sociaux

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Decamps, H.; Amatore, C.; Bach, J.F.; Baccelli, F.; Balian, R.; Carpentier, A.; Charnay, P.; Cuzin, F.; Davier, M.; Dercourt, J.; Dumas, C.; Encrenaz, P.; Jeannerod, M.; Kahane, J.P.; Meunier, B.; Rebut, P.H.; Salencon, J.; Spitz, E.; Suquet, P.; Taquet, P.; Valleron, A.J.; Yoccoz, J.C.; Chapron, J.Y.; Fanon, J.; Andre, J.C.; Auger, P.; Bourrelier, P.H.; Combes, C.; Derrida, B.; Laubier, L.; Laval, K.; Le Maho, Y.; Marsily, G. De; Petit, M.; Schmidt-Laine, C.; Birot, Y.; Peyron, J.L.; Seguin, B.; Barles, S.; Besancenot, J.P.; Michel-Kerjan, E.; Hallegatte, S.; Dumas, P.; Ancey, V.; Requier-Desjardins, M.; Ducharnes, A.; Ciais, P.; Peylin, P.; Kaniewski, D.; Van Campo, E.; Planton, S.; Manuguerra, J.C.; Le Bars, Y.; Lagadec, P.; Kessler, D.; Pontikis, C.; Nussbaum, R.

2010-07-01

The Earth has to face more and more devastating extreme events. Between 1970 and 2009, at the worldwide scale, the 25 most costly catastrophes all took place after 1987, and for more than half of them after 2001. Among these 25 catastrophes, 23 were linked to climate conditions. France was not spared: the December 1999 storms led to 88 deaths, deprived 3.5 million households of electricity and costed more than 9 billion euros. The 2003 heat wave led to about 15000 supernumerary deaths between August 1 and August 20. The recent Xynthia storm, with its flood barrier ruptures, provoked 53 deaths in addition to many other tragedies that took place in areas liable to flooding. In the present day context of climate change, we know that we must be prepared to even more dangerous events, sometimes unexpected before. These events can have amplified effects because of the urban development, the overpopulation of coastal areas and the anthropization of natural environments. They represent real 'poverty traps' for the poorest countries of the Earth. The anticipation need is real but is our country ready to answer it? Does it have a sufficient contribution to international actions aiming at reducing risks? Is his scientific information suitable? France is not less vulnerable than other countries. It must reinforce its prevention, its response and resilience capacities in the framework of integrated policies of catastrophes risk management as well as in the framework of climate change adaptation plans. This reinforcement supposes the development of vigilance systems with a better risk coverage and benefiting by the advances gained in the meteorology and health domains. It supposes a town and country planning allowing to improve the viability of ecological and social systems - in particular by protecting their diversity. Finally, this reinforcement requires inciting financial coverage solutions for catastrophes prevention and for their management once they have taken

Oxidized zirconium on ceramic; Catastrophic coupling.

Science.gov (United States)

Ozden, V E; Saglam, N; Dikmen, G; Tozun, I R

2017-02-01

Oxidized zirconium (Oxinium™; Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) articulated with polyethylene in total hip arthroplasty (THA) appeared to have the potential to reduce wear dramatically. The thermally oxidized metal zirconium surface is transformed into ceramic-like hard surface that is resistant to abrasion. The exposure of soft zirconium metal under hard coverage surface after the damage of oxidized zirconium femoral head has been described. It occurred following joint dislocation or in situ succeeding disengagement of polyethylene liner. We reported three cases of misuse of Oxinium™ (Smith & Nephew, Memphis, TN, USA) heads. These three cases resulted in catastrophic in situ wear and inevitable failure although there was no advice, indication or recommendation for this use from the manufacturer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

The resilient banality of catastrophes: about After Fukushima by Jean-Luc Nancy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tonaki, Yotetsu

2016-01-01

The author proposes some thoughts based on a book (The equivalence of catastrophes - After Fukushima) written by the French philosopher Jean-Luc Nancy for whom Fukushima cannot be reduced to technological dysfunctions, nor to a factor attributable to men in charge, but reveals a system of general equivalence which supports a whole civilisation. The author refers to the speech on safety engineering and on resilience in Japan, and outlines some surprising correspondences with Nancy's writings. With a reference to Heidegger, the author shows that what the catastrophe reveals is not only daunting or abnormal phenomena, but also and above all an almost ontological condition which command the normal operation of every day life. Based on Anders' works, he examines what is on in this techno-sphere which is finally similar to a 'self-transformation of the human being'

Hydrogen atom in a magnetic field: Ghost orbits, catastrophes, and uniform semiclassical approximations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Main, J.; Wunner, G.

1997-01-01

Applying closed-orbit theory to the recurrence spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field, one can interpret most, but not all, structures semiclassically in terms of closed classical orbits. In particular, conventional closed-orbit theory fails near bifurcations of orbits where semiclassical amplitudes exhibit unphysical divergences. Here we analyze the role of ghost orbits living in complex phase space. The ghosts can explain resonance structures in the spectra of the hydrogen atom in a magnetic field at positions where no real orbits exist. For three different types of catastrophes, viz. fold, cusp, and butterfly catastrophes, we construct uniform semiclassical approximations and demonstrate that these solutions are completely determined by classical parameters of the real orbits and complex ghosts. copyright 1997 The American Physical Society

S. pombe kinesins-8 promote both nucleation and catastrophe of microtubules.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Muriel Erent

Full Text Available The kinesins-8 were originally thought to be microtubule depolymerases, but are now emerging as more versatile catalysts of microtubule dynamics. We show here that S. pombe Klp5-436 and Klp6-440 are non-processive plus-end-directed motors whose in vitro velocities on S. pombe microtubules at 7 and 23 nm s(-1 are too slow to keep pace with the growing tips of dynamic interphase microtubules in living S. pombe. In vitro, Klp5 and 6 dimers exhibit a hitherto-undescribed combination of strong enhancement of microtubule nucleation with no effect on growth rate or catastrophe frequency. By contrast in vivo, both Klp5 and Klp6 promote microtubule catastrophe at cell ends whilst Klp6 also increases the number of interphase microtubule arrays (IMAs. Our data support a model in which Klp5/6 bind tightly to free tubulin heterodimers, strongly promoting the nucleation of new microtubules, and then continue to land as a tubulin-motor complex on the tips of growing microtubules, with the motors then dissociating after a few seconds residence on the lattice. In vivo, we predict that only at cell ends, when growing microtubule tips become lodged and their growth slows down, will Klp5/6 motor activity succeed in tracking growing microtubule tips. This mechanism would allow Klp5/6 to detect the arrival of microtubule tips at cells ends and to amplify the intrinsic tendency for microtubules to catastrophise in compression at cell ends. Our evidence identifies Klp5 and 6 as spatial regulators of microtubule dynamics that enhance both microtubule nucleation at the cell centre and microtubule catastrophe at the cell ends.

A cusp catastrophe model of mid-long-term landslide evolution over low latitude highlands of China

Science.gov (United States)

Tao, Yun; Cao, Jie; Hu, Jinming; Dai, Zhicheng

2013-04-01

Based on a model describing a certain landslide case and catastrophe theory, we derived a cusp catastrophe model and corresponding inversion method to study mid-long-term landslide evolution. According to data of landslides, precipitation, and socioeconomic development from 1976 to 2008, the cusp catastrophe model describing this landslide evolution across a low-latitude highland area in China is obtained with the least squares method. Results of the model indicate that human activity determines landslide intensity. Local precipitation also impacts yearly landslide intensity to some extent, and controls the time when a strong and abrupt change in landslides occurs. During the period 1976-2008, there was an abrupt decrease of landslide intensity during 1994-1995, and an abrupt increase during 1995-1996. Since then, there have been frequent landslides in the low-latitude highland, with greater intensity. All these factors provide a scientific basis for formulating a contingency plan regarding landslide disasters.

The inherent catastrophic traps in retrograde CTO PCI.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Eugene B; Tsuchikane, Etsuo

2018-05-01

When we learn to drive, our driving instructor tells us how to check the side mirror and turn your head to check the blind spot before changing lanes. He tells us how to stop at stop signs, how to drive in slippery conditions, the safe stopping distances, and these all make our driving safe. Similarly, when we learn PCI, our mentors teach us to seat the guiding catheter co-axially, to wire the vessel safely, to deliver balloon and stents over the wire, to watch the pressure of the guiding, in order that we perform PCI safely and evade complications. In retrograde CTO PCI, there is no such published teaching. Also many individual mentors have not had the wide experience to see all the possible complications of retrograde CTO PCI and, therefore, may not be able to warn their apprentice. As the number of retrograde procedures increase worldwide, there is a corresponding increase in catastrophic complications, many of which, we as experts, can see are easily avoidable. To breach this gap in knowledge, this article describes 12 commonly met inherent traps in retrograde CTO PCI. They are inherent because by arranging our equipment in the manner to perform retrograde CTO PCI, these complications are either induced directly or happen easily. We hope this work will enhance safety of retrograde CTO PCI and avoid many catastrophic complications for our readers and operators. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Preliminary remote sensing assessment of the catastrophic avalanche in Langtang Valley induced by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, Nepal

Science.gov (United States)

Nagai, Hiroto; Watanabe, Manabu; Tomii, Naoya

2016-04-01

A major earthquake, measuring 7.8 Mw, occurred on April 25, 2015, in Lamjung district, central Nepal, causing more than 9,000 deaths and 23,000 injuries. During the event, termed the 2015 Gorkha earthquake, the most catastrophic collapse of the mountain side was reported in the Langtang Valley, located 60 km north of Kathmandu. In this collapse, a huge boulder-rich avalanche and a sudden air pressure wave traveled from a steep south-facing slope to the bottom of a U-shaped valley, resulting in more than 170 deaths. Accurate in-situ surveys are necessary to investigate such events, and to find out ways to avoid similar catastrophic events in the future. Geospatial information obtained from multiple satellite observations is invaluable for such surveys in remote mountain regions. In this study, we (1) identify the collapsed sediment using synthetic aperture radar, (2) conduct detailed mapping using high-resolution optical imagery, and (3) estimate sediment volumes from digital surface models in order to quantify the immediate situation of the avalanched sediment. (1) Visual interpretation and coherence calculations using Phased Array type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2) images give a consistent area of sediment cover. Emergency observation was carried out the day after the earthquake, using the PALSAR-2 onboard the Advanced Land Observing Satellite-2 (ALOS-2, "DAICHI-2"). Visual interpretation of orthorectified backscatter amplitude images revealed completely altered surface features, over which the identifiable sediment cover extended for 0.73 km2 (28°13'N, 85°30'E). Additionally, measuring the decrease in normalized coherence quantifies the similarity between the pre- and post-event surface features, after the removal of numerous noise patches by focal statistics. Calculations within the study area revealed high-value areas corresponding to the visually identified sediment area. Visual interpretation of the amplitude images and the coherence

Floods of the Lower Tisza from the late 17th century onwards: frequency, magnitude, seasonality and great flood events

Science.gov (United States)

Kiss, Andrea

2016-04-01

The present paper is based on a recently developed database including contemporary original, administrative, legal and private source materials (published and archival) as well as media reports related to the floods occurred on the lower sections of the Tisza river in Hungary, with special emphasis on the area of Szeged town. The study area is well-represented by contemporary source evidence from the late 17th century onwards, when the town and its broader area was reoccupied from the Ottoman Turkish Empire. Concerning the applied source materials, the main bases of investigation are the administrative (archival) sources such as town council protocols of Szeged and county meeting protocols of Csanád and Csongrád Counties. In these (legal-)administrative documents damaging events (natural/environmental hazards) were systematically recorded. Moreover, other source types such as taxation-related damage accounts as well as private and official reports, letters and correspondence (published, unpublished) were also included. Concerning published evidence, a most important source is flood reports in contemporary newspapers as well as town chronicles and other contemporary narratives. In the presentation the main focus is on the analysis of flood-rich flood-poor periods of the last ca. 330 years; moreover, the seasonality distribution as well as the magnitude of Tisza flood events are also discussed. Another important aim of the poster is to provide a short overview, in the form of case studies, on the greatest flood events (e.g. duration, magnitude, damages, multi-annual consequences), and their further impacts on the urban and countryside development as well as on (changes in) flood defence strategies. In this respect, especially two flood events, the great (1815-)1816 and the catastrophic 1879 flood (shortly with causes and consequences) - that practically erased Szeged town from the ground - are presented in more detail.

Do romantic partners' responses to entry dyspareunia affect women's experience of pain? The roles of catastrophizing and self-efficacy.

Science.gov (United States)

Lemieux, Ashley J; Bergeron, Sophie; Steben, Marc; Lambert, Bernard

2013-09-01

Entry dyspareunia is a sexual health concern which affects about 21% of women in the general population. Characterized by pain provoked during vaginal penetration, introital dyspareunia has been shown by controlled studies to have a negative impact on the psychological well-being, sexual function, sexual satisfaction, and quality of life of afflicted women. Many cognitive and affective variables may influence the experience of pain and associated psychosexual problems. However, the role of the partner's cognitive responses has been studied very little. The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between partners' catastrophizing and their perceptions of women's self-efficacy at managing pain on one side and women's pain intensity, sexual function, and sexual satisfaction on the other. One hundred seventy-nine heterosexual couples (mean age for women = 31, SD = 10.0; mean age for men = 33, SD = 10.6) in which the woman suffered from entry dyspareunia participated in the study. Both partners completed quantitative measures. Women completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale and the Painful Intercourse Self-Efficacy Scale. Men completed the significant-other versions of these measures. Dependent measures were women's responses to (i) the Pain Numeric Visual Analog Scale; (ii) the Female Sexual Function Index; and (iii) the Global Measure of Sexual Satisfaction scale. Controlled for women's pain catastrophizing and self-efficacy, results indicate that higher levels of partner-perceived self-efficacy and lower levels of partner catastrophizing are associated with decreased pain intensity in women with entry dyspareunia, although only partner catastrophizing contributed unique variance. Partner-perceived self-efficacy and catastrophizing were not significantly associated with sexual function or satisfaction in women. The findings suggest that partners' cognitive responses may influence the experience of entry dyspareunia for women, pointing

Emergency communication and information issues in terrorist events involving radioactive materials.

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Steven M

2004-01-01

With the threat posed by terrorism involving radioactive materials now high on the nation's agenda, local, state, and federal agencies are moving to enhance preparedness and response capabilities. Crucial to these efforts is the development of effective risk communication strategies. This article reports findings from an ongoing study of risk communication issues in nuclear/radiological terrorism situations. It is part of a larger CDC-funded effort that aims to better understand communication challenges associated with weapons of mass destruction terrorism incidents. Presented here are formative research findings from 16 focus groups (n = 163) in which a multi-part, hypothetical radioactive materials terrorism situation was discussed. Twelve of the focus groups were carried out with members of the general public (drawn from a variety of ethnic backgrounds and geographic locations), and four groups were composed of first responders, hospital emergency department personnel, and public health professionals. One aim of the focus groups was to elicit detailed information on people's knowledge, views, perceptions, reactions, and concerns related to a nuclear/radiological terrorism event, and to better understand people's specific information needs and preferred information sources. A second aim was to pretest draft informational materials prepared by CDC and NIOSH. Key findings for the public and professional groups are presented, and the implications of the research for developing messages in radiological/nuclear terrorism situations are explored.

Surfeit. Philosophies of Jürgen Habermas and Jean Baudrillard against the background of St. I. Witkiewicz’s neohumanistic catastrophism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agnieszka Smrokowska-Reichmann

2015-03-01

Full Text Available The paper analyses the category of neo-catastrophism. Postmodern society has launched the mechanisms of self-destruction which are now working not only in interpersonal and communicative relationships, but also in the realms of axiology, ethics and even ontology. According to the author, the main aspects of Jean Baudrillard’s and Jürgen Habermas’ philosophy can be interpreted as containing such neo-catastrophic message. However, as the forerunner of neo-catastrophism in philosophy the author points out Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz (Witkacy, especially his theory of metaphysical feelings and their disappearance in mass society. Stanisław Ignacy Witkiewicz, known among the philosophy critics as neohumanistic catastrophist, has foreseen many categories which are typical for Habermas’ and Baudrillard’s writings. The neo-catastrophic mechanisms has a serious consequences for the condition of postmodern subject, the more so because the main part of the neocatastrophism is the strong conviction that there is no escape. The author, besides the main thesis mentioned above, highlights some common features between Baudillard’s and Habermas’ conceptions.

Catastrophes and nuclear accidents in the former USSR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robeau, D.

2001-01-01

In the former USSR, the nuclear safety, the environment protection and the preservation of workers and population health were not the first priority for the Soviet Union authorities. The fabrication of nuclear weapons, the construction of nuclear submarines and the production of an abundant energy source were the only goals at that time. This book describes and explains the circumstances of the nuclear catastrophes and accidents that have occurred during this era. It tries to estimate their impacts on populations and environment and their possible consequences in a near or far future. (J.S.)

A cross-cultural investigation of attachment style, catastrophizing, negative pain beliefs, and symptom severity in irritable bowel syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerson, C D; Gerson, M-J; Chang, L; Corazziari, E S; Dumitrascu, D; Ghoshal, U C; Porcelli, P; Schmulson, M; Wang, W-A; Zali, M

2015-04-01

Little information exists regarding whether psychosocial variables in irritable bowel syndrome (IBS) vary by geographic location. Adult attachment is an important psychological concept rooted in childhood relationship experience that has not been previously studied in IBS. Catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs have been described in IBS and may be affected by attachment. In this cross-cultural study, we determined: (i) whether attachment differs between IBS patients and controls, (ii) whether geographic location has a significant effect on attachment style, catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs, and (iii) how all three variables correlate with IBS symptom severity. 463 IBS patients, with moderate to severe symptom scores, and 192 healthy controls completed validated questionnaires about attachment, catastrophizing, negative pain beliefs and IBS-SSS in nine locations, USA (New York, Los Angeles), Mexico, Italy (Rome, Bari), Romania, Iran, India, and China. Attachment anxiety and avoidance scores were significantly higher in IBS patients than in controls (p < 0.001). This was particularly true for the fearful-avoidant attachment category, especially in China and Romania. Path analysis showed that attachment anxiety and avoidance had indirect effects on IBS-SSS through catastrophizing (p < 0.0001) and negative pain beliefs (p = 0.005). All three psychosocial measures varied significantly depending on location. In the IBS population studied, attachment style was significantly different in IBS compared to a control population. Geographic differences in attachment, catastrophizing and negative pain beliefs were documented and their correlation with symptom severity and thus, research of psychosocial variables in IBS should take into account the location of the population studied. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

[Seronegative antiphospholipid syndrome, catastrophic syndrome, new anticoagulants: learning from a difficult case report].

Science.gov (United States)

Joalland, F; de Boysson, H; Darnige, L; Johnson, A; Jeanjean, C; Cheze, S; Augustin, A; Auzary, C; Geffray, L

2014-11-01

The diagnosis of the antiphospholipid syndrome (APS) is based on clinical and biological criteria including the persistent presence of antiphospholipid antibodies and thrombotic events or pregnancy morbidity. Heparins relayed by vitamin K antagonists (VKA) are the gold standard treatment for thrombosis. We report a 17-year-old man who presented with an initially seronegative antiphospholipid syndrome, in whom the diagnosis was late, only obtained after anticoagulation withdrawing, when a catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) with cutaneous lesions and disseminated intravascular coagulation syndrome occurred. For personal convenience, this patient was initially treated with fondaparinux followed by a new oral anticoagulant (rivaroxaban) before to return to the conventional VKA treatment. The "seronegative" APS is a controversial concept reflecting the heterogeneity of antigenic targets for aPL. This diagnosis may be considered after a rigorous work-up, with the help of haemostasis laboratories testing new emerging aPL assays. In APS, the new anticoagulants represent an attractive option needing nevertheless prospective studies to evaluate their safety and efficacy. Lupus anticoagulant detection in patients treated by new oral anticoagulants is not easy by usually recommended coagulation tests. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier SAS.

Should catastrophic risks be included in a regulated competitive health insurance market?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

W.P.M.M. van de Ven (Wynand); F.T. Schut (Erik)

1994-01-01

textabstractIn 1988 the Dutch government launched a proposal for a national health insurance based on regulated competition. The mandatory benefits package should be offered by competing insurers and should cover both non-catastrophic risks (like hospital care, physician services and drugs) and

Retrospective and emergency dosimetry in response to radiological incidents and nuclear mass-casualty events : a review.

OpenAIRE

Bailiff, I.K.; Sholom, S.; McKeever, S.W.S.

2016-01-01

This paper reviews recent research on the application of the physical dosimetry techniques of electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) and luminescence (optically stimulated luminescence, OSL, and thermoluminescence, TL) to determine radiation dose following catastrophic, large-scale radiological events. Such data are used in dose reconstruction to obtain estimates of dose due to the exposure to external sources of radiation, primarily gamma radiation, by individual members of the public and by ...

Numerical Simulations Of Catastrophic Disruption Of Porous Bodies: Application To Dark-type Asteroids And Kuiper-belt Family Formation

Science.gov (United States)

Michel, Patrick; Jutzi, M.; Richardson, D. C.; Benz, W.

2010-10-01

Asteroids of dark (e.g. C, D) taxonomic classes as well as Kuiper Belt objects and comets are believed to have high porosity, not only in the form of large voids but also in the form of micro-pores. The presence of such microscale porosity introduces additional physics in the impact process. We have enhanced our 3D SPH hydrocode, used to simulate catastrophic breakups, with a model of porosity [1] and validated it at small scale by comparison with impact experiments on pumice targets [2]. Our model is now ready to be applied to a large range of problems. In particular, accounting for the gravitational phase of an impact, we can study the formation of dark-type asteroid families, such as Veritas, and Kuiper-Belt families, such as Haumea. Recently we characterized for the first time the catastrophic impact energy threshold, usually called Q*D, as a function of the target's diameter, porosity, material strength and impact speed [3]. Regarding the mentioned families, our preliminary results show that accounting for porosity leads to different outcomes that may better represent their properties and constrain their definition. In particular, for Veritas, we find that its membership may need some revision [4]. The parameter space is still large, many interesting families need to be investigated and our model will be applied to a large range of cases. PM, MJ and DCR acknowledge financial support from the French Programme National de Planétologie, NASA PG&G "Small Bodies and Planetary Collisions" and NASA under Grant No. NNX08AM39G issued through the Office of Space Science, respectively. [1] Jutzi et al. 2008. Icarus 198, 242-255; [2] Jutzi et al. 2009. Icarus 201, 802-813; [3] Jutzi et al. 2010. Fragment properties at the catastrophic disruption threshold: The effect of the parent body's internal structure, Icarus 207, 54-65; [4] Michel et al. 2010. Icarus, submitted.

Clinically meaningful scores on pain catastrophizing before and after multidisciplinary rehabilitation: a prospective study of individuals with subacute pain after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Whitney; Wideman, Timothy H; Sullivan, Michael J L

2014-03-01

Pain catastrophizing has emerged as a significant risk factor for problematic recovery after musculoskeletal injury. As such, there has been an increased focus on interventions that target patients' levels of catastrophizing. However, it is not presently clear how clinicians might best interpret scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment. Thus, the purpose of this study was to provide preliminary guidelines for the clinical interpretation of scores on pain catastrophizing among individuals with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury. A sample of 166 occupationally disabled individuals with subacute pain due to a whiplash injury participated in this study. Participants completed a 7-week standardized multidisciplinary rehabilitation program aimed at fostering functional recovery. Participants completed the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) upon program commencement and completion. One year later, participants indicated their pain severity and involvement in employment activities. Separate receiver operating characteristic curve analyses were conducted to determine absolute pretreatment and posttreatment and percent change scores on the PCS that were best associated with clinically important levels of pain and employment status at the follow-up. An absolute pretreatment PCS score of 24 best identified patients according to follow-up clinical outcomes. Posttreatment PCS scores of 14 and 15 best identified patients with high follow-up pain intensity ratings and those who did not return to work, respectively. PCS reductions of approximately 38% to 44% were best associated with return to work and low pain intensity ratings at follow-up. The results indicate scores on catastrophizing before and after treatment that are clinically meaningful. These results may serve as preliminary guidelines to assess the clinical significance of interventions targeting pain catastrophizing in patients with subacute pain after musculoskeletal injury.

Balancing burn-in and mission times in environments with catastrophic and repairable failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bebbington, Mark; Lai, C.-D.; Zitikis, Ricardas

2009-01-01

In a system subject to both repairable and catastrophic (i.e., nonrepairable) failures, 'mission success' can be defined as operating for a specified time without a catastrophic failure. We examine the effect of a burn-in process of duration τ on the mission time x, and also on the probability of mission success, by introducing several functions and surfaces on the (τ,x)-plane whose extrema represent suitable choices for the best burn-in time, and the best burn-in time for a desired mission time. The corresponding curvature functions and surfaces provide information about probabilities and expectations related to these burn-in and mission times. Theoretical considerations are illustrated with both parametric and, separating the failures by failure mode, nonparametric analyses of a data set, and graphical visualization of results.

Carbon-ion beam irradiation kills X-ray-resistant p53-null cancer cells by inducing mitotic catastrophe.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Napapat Amornwichet

Full Text Available BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: To understand the mechanisms involved in the strong killing effect of carbon-ion beam irradiation on cancer cells with TP53 tumor suppressor gene deficiencies. MATERIALS AND METHODS: DNA damage responses after carbon-ion beam or X-ray irradiation in isogenic HCT116 colorectal cancer cell lines with and without TP53 (p53+/+ and p53-/-, respectively were analyzed as follows: cell survival by clonogenic assay, cell death modes by morphologic observation of DAPI-stained nuclei, DNA double-strand breaks (DSBs by immunostaining of phosphorylated H2AX (γH2AX, and cell cycle by flow cytometry and immunostaining of Ser10-phosphorylated histone H3. RESULTS: The p53-/- cells were more resistant than the p53+/+ cells to X-ray irradiation, while the sensitivities of the p53+/+ and p53-/- cells to carbon-ion beam irradiation were comparable. X-ray and carbon-ion beam irradiations predominantly induced apoptosis of the p53+/+ cells but not the p53-/- cells. In the p53-/- cells, carbon-ion beam irradiation, but not X-ray irradiation, markedly induced mitotic catastrophe that was associated with premature mitotic entry with harboring long-retained DSBs at 24 h post-irradiation. CONCLUSIONS: Efficient induction of mitotic catastrophe in apoptosis-resistant p53-deficient cells implies a strong cancer cell-killing effect of carbon-ion beam irradiation that is independent of the p53 status, suggesting its biological advantage over X-ray treatment.

Combining satellite imagery with forest inventory data to assess damage severity following a major blowdown event in northern Minnesota, USA

Science.gov (United States)

Mark D. Nelson; Sean P. Healey; W. Keith Moser; Mark H. Hansen

2009-01-01

Effects of a catastrophic blowdown event in northern Minnesota, USA were assessed using field inventory data, aerial sketch maps and satellite image data processed through the North American Forest Dynamics programme. Estimates were produced for forest area and net volume per unit area of live trees pre- and post-disturbance, and for changes in volume per unit area and...

Thermal thresholds and catastrophizing in individuals with chronic pain after whiplash injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Raak, Ragnhild; Wallin, Mia

2006-10-01

Thermal sensitivity, thermal pain thresholds, and catastrophizing were examined in individuals with whiplash associated disorders (WAD) and in healthy pain-free participants. Quantitative sensory testing (QST) was used to measure skin sensitivity to cold and warmth and cold and heat pain thresholds over both the thenar eminence and the trapezius muscle (TrM) in 17 participants with WAD (age 50.8 +/- 11.3 years) and 18 healthy participants (age 44.8 +/- 10.2 years). The Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS) was used to determine pain coping strategies, and visual analogue scales were used for self-assessment of current background pain in individuals in the WAD group as well as experienced pain intensity and unpleasantness after QST and sleep quality in all participants. There were significant differences in warmth threshold and cold and heat pain thresholds of the TrM site between the WAD and pain-free groups. Significant differences between the two groups were also found for the catastrophizing dimension of helplessness in the PCS and in self-assessed quality of sleep. A correlational analysis showed that current background pain is significantly correlated with both cold discrimination and cold pain threshold in the skin over the TrM in individuals with WAD. These findings imply that thermal sensitivity is an important factor to consider in providing nursing care to individuals with WAD. Because biopsychosocial factors also influence the experience of pain in individuals with WAD, the role of nurses includes not only the description of the pain phenomenon but also the identification of relieving and aggravating factors.

Can a stochastic cusp catastrophe model explain stock market crashes?

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Baruník, Jozef; Vošvrda, Miloslav

2009-01-01

Roč. 33, č. 10 (2009), s. 1824-1836 ISSN 0165-1889 R&D Projects: GA ČR GD402/09/H045; GA ČR GA402/09/0965 Grant - others:GAUK(CZ) 46108 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Stochastic cusp catastrophe * Bifurcations * Singularity * Nonlinear dynamics * Stock market crash Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 1.097, year: 2009

Ozone control of biological activity during Earth's history, including the KT catastrophe

Science.gov (United States)

Sheldon, W. R.

1994-01-01

There have been brief periods since the beginning of the Cambrian some 600 m.y. ago when mass extinctions destroyed a significant fraction of living species. The most widely studied of these events is the catastrophe at the KT boundary that ended the long dominance of the dinosaurs. In addition to mass extinctions, there is another profound discontinuity in the history of Earth's biota, the explosion of life at the end of the Precambrian era which is an episode that is not explained well at all. For some 3 b.y. before the Cambrian, life had been present on Earth, but maintained a low level of activity which is an aspect of the biota that is puzzling, especially during the last two-thirds of that period. During the last 2 b.y. before the Cambrian, conditions at the Earth's surface were suitable for a burgeoning of the biota, according to most criteria: the oceans neither boiled nor were fozen solid during this time, and the atmosphere contained sufficient O for the development of animals. The purpose of this paper is to suggest that mass extinctions and the lackluster behavior of the Precambrian biota share a common cause: an inadequate amount of ozone in the atmosphere.

Equipment for the forecast and operating control of the natural catastrophes dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazansev, S.I.; Koblik, Yu.N.; Yuldashev, B.S.; Kuzhevskij, B.M.; Nechaev, O.Yu.

2004-01-01

Full text: Necessity of the solution of forecast the natural catastrophes such as: earthquakes, the volcanic activity stirring up, origin of the mud flows, landslides, sudden moving of pulsating glaciers, awesome atmospheric phenomena is realized a long time ago. However numerous attempts to find the solution yet have not yielded desirable result. Representative example to this is the absence to the present time of the physically justified earthquake forecast. Perennial observations of the Earth neutron field with the help of designed by us equipment, both in seismically active regions (Tien - Shan, Pamir, Kamchatka) and in seismically quiet regions (Moscow and Tver regions) demonstrated, that the variations of neutron radiation near the earth crust allow us to elaborate near-term (tens hours, some day) the earthquakes forecast. These researches have also revealed correlation between variations of neutron and magnetic fields of the Earth. In this connection it is represented, that a hardware complex permitting simultaneously to watch variations of a neutron radiation near the earth crust and variation of a magnetic field of the Earth will appear sufficient for the purposes of a short forecast of natural debacles and, besides will allow us to execute the operating control of temporary development of already happened event

Equipment for the forecast and operating control of the natural catastrophes dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kazantsev, S.I.; Koblik, Yu.N.; Yuldashev, B.S.; Kuzhevskij, B.M.; Nechaev, O.Yu.

2004-01-01

Necessity of the solution of forecast the natural catastrophes such as: earthquakes, the volcanic activity stirring up, origin of the mud flows, landslides, sudden moving of pulsating glaciers, awesome atmospheric phenomena is realized a long time ago. However numerous attempts to find the solution yet have not yielded desirable result. Representative example to this is the absence to the present time of the physically justified earthquake forecast. Perennial observations of the Earth neutron field with the help of designed by us equipment, both in seismically active regions (Tien - Shan, Pamir, Kamchatka) and in seismically quiet regions (Moscow and Tver regions) demonstrated, that the variations of neutron radiation near the earth crust allow us to elaborate near-term (tens hours, some day) the earthquakes forecast. These researches have also revealed correlation between variations of neutron and magnetic fields of the Earth. In this connection it is represented, that a hardware complex permitting simultaneously to watch variations of a neutron radiation near the earth crust and variation of a magnetic field of the Earth will appear sufficient for the purposes of a short forecast of natural debacles and, besides will allow us to execute the operating control of temporary development of already happened event. (author)

Assessing and modelling catastrophic risk perceptions and attitudes in agriculture: a review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ogurtsov, V.; Asseldonk, van M.A.P.M.; Huirne, R.B.M.

2008-01-01

Catastrophic risks result in high losses in agriculture. To cope with such losses farmers need to apply risk management strategies to balance their profits and risks. Therefore risk assessment and risk modelling are important to support farm-level decision-making. This paper (1) reviews the

Development of a national sport event risk management training program for college command groups.

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, Stacey A

2013-01-01

The US Department of Homeland Security identified college sport venues as terrorist targets due to the potential for mass casualties and catastrophic social and economic impact. Therefore, it is critical for college sport safety and security personnel to implement effective risk management practices. However, deficiencies have been identified in the level of preparedness of college sport event security personnel related to risk management training and effective emergency response capabilities. To address the industry need, the National Center for Spectator Sports Safety and Security designed, developed, and evaluated a national sport event risk management training program for National Collegiate Athletic Association command groups. The purpose of this article was to provide an overview of the design, development, and evaluation process.

Safeguards summary event list (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-07-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Because of public interest, also included are events reported involving byproduct material which is exempt from safeguards requirements. Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, tampering/vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage, nonradiological sabotage, alcohol and drugs, and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

Perceptions of Challenge: The Role of Catastrophe Theory in Piano Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Bugos, Jennifer; Lee, William

2015-01-01

The purpose of this study is to evaluate the perceptions of private piano instructors on the role of challenge in teaching and learning the piano and to examine the potential application of catastrophe theory in understanding the role and outcomes of such challenges. A 23-item electronic questionnaire was administered to collect quantitative and…

Psychometric Properties of the Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Modified (CCQ-Modified) Among Community Samples in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Abdul Khaiyom, Jamilah Hanum; Mukhtar, Firdaus; Ibrahim, Normala; Mohd Sidik, Sherina; Oei, Tian Po Sumantri

2016-12-01

The Catastrophic Cognitions Questionnaire-Modified (CCQ-M) is a common instrument for measuring catastrophic thoughts. In some countries, however, CCQ-M still poses concerns following the lack of appropriate validation among their populations. The current study aimed to examine the factor structure of the CCQ-M, the reliability, and the validity in community samples in Malaysia. The Malay version of CCQ-M and additional measures assessing the symptoms and cognitions relevant to anxiety disorders were completed by 682 university students and general community. Exploratory factor analysis revealed a two-factor structure accounting for 62.2% of the total variance. Confirmatory factor analysis confirmed the two-factor model by deleting four items. The Cronbach's alpha coefficients for the total and the two subscales were .94, .90, and .92, respectively. Test-retest reliability analysis was conducted on 82 university students in the interval period of 14 days, and the result was r = .58. Evidence supported the concurrent, convergent, and discriminant validity. In conclusion, the 17-item CCQ-M-Malaysia is a valid and reliable instrument for assessing catastrophic cognitions among Malaysian populations. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Zeeman catastrophe machines as a toolkit for teaching chaos

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagy, Péter; Tasnádi, Péter

2014-01-01

The investigation of chaotic motions and cooperative systems offers a magnificent opportunity to involve modern physics in the basic course of mechanics taught to engineering students. In this paper, it will be demonstrated that the Zeeman machine can be a versatile and motivating tool for students to acquire introductory knowledge about chaotic motion via interactive simulations. The Zeeman catastrophe machine is a typical example of a quasi-static system with hysteresis. It works in a relatively simple way and its properties can be understood very easily. Since the machine can be built easily and the simulation of its movement is also simple, the experimental investigation and the theoretical description can be connected intuitively. Although the Zeeman machine is known mainly for its quasi-static and catastrophic behaviour, its dynamic properties are also of interest with its typical chaotic features. By means of a periodically driven Zeeman machine, a wide range of chaotic properties of the simple systems can be demonstrated, such as bifurcation diagrams, chaotic attractors, transient chaos, Lyapunov exponents and so on. This paper is organically linked to our website (http://csodafizika.hu/zeeman) where the discussed simulation programs can be downloaded. In a second paper, the novel construction of a network of Zeeman machines will be presented to study the properties of cooperative systems. (paper)

Grasshopper Population Ecology: Catastrophe, Criticality, and Critique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dale R. Lockwood

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Grasshopper population dynamics are an important part of the North American rangeland ecosystem and an important factor in the economies that derive from the rangeland. Outbreak dynamics have plagued management strategies in the rangeland, and attempts to find simple, linear and mechanistic solutions to both understanding and predicting the dynamics have proved fruitless. These efforts to ground theory in a correspondence with the "real" world, including whether the population dynamics are ultimately density dependent or density independent, have generated abundant heat but little light. We suggest that a pragmatic approach, in which theories are taken to be "tools" rather than competing claims of truth, has greater promise to move ecological research in a constructive direction. Two recent non-linear approaches exploiting the tools of complexity science provide insights relevant to explaining and forecasting population dynamics. Observation and data collection were used to structure models derived from catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality. These models indicate that nonlinear processes are important in the dynamics of the outbreaks. And the conceptual structures of these approaches provide clear, albeit constrained or contingent, implications for pest managers. We show that, although these two frameworks, catastrophe theory and self-organized criticality, are very different, the frequency distributions of time series from both systems result in power law relationships. Further, we show that a simple lattice-based model, similar to SOC but structured on the biology of the grasshoppers gives a spatial time series similar to data over a 50-year span and the frequency distribution is also a power law relationship. This demonstration exemplifies how a "both-and" rather than an "either-or" approach to ecological modeling, in which the useful elements of particular theories or conceptual structures are extracted, may provide a way forward

Introducing Catastrophe-QSAR. Application on Modeling Molecular Mechanisms of Pyridinone Derivative-Type HIV Non-Nucleoside Reverse Transcriptase Inhibitors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marius Lazea

2011-12-01

Full Text Available The classical method of quantitative structure-activity relationships (QSAR is enriched using non-linear models, as Thom’s polynomials allow either uni- or bi-variate structural parameters. In this context, catastrophe QSAR algorithms are applied to the anti-HIV-1 activity of pyridinone derivatives. This requires calculation of the so-called relative statistical power and of its minimum principle in various QSAR models. A new index, known as a statistical relative power, is constructed as an Euclidian measure for the combined ratio of the Pearson correlation to algebraic correlation, with normalized t-Student and the Fisher tests. First and second order inter-model paths are considered for mono-variate catastrophes, whereas for bi-variate catastrophes the direct minimum path is provided, allowing the QSAR models to be tested for predictive purposes. At this stage, the max-to-min hierarchies of the tested models allow the interaction mechanism to be identified using structural parameter succession and the typical catastrophes involved. Minimized differences between these catastrophe models in the common structurally influential domains that span both the trial and tested compounds identify the “optimal molecular structural domains” and the molecules with the best output with respect to the modeled activity, which in this case is human immunodeficiency virus type 1 HIV-1 inhibition. The best molecules are characterized by hydrophobic interactions with the HIV-1 p66 subunit protein, and they concur with those identified in other 3D-QSAR analyses. Moreover, the importance of aromatic ring stacking interactions for increasing the binding affinity of the inhibitor-reverse transcriptase ligand-substrate complex is highlighted.

Global Catastrophes in Earth History: An Interdisciplinary Conference on Impacts, Volcanism, and Mass Mortality

Science.gov (United States)

1988-01-01

Topics addressed include: Cretaceous-Tertiary mass extinctions; geologial indicators for meteorite collisions; carbon dioxide catastrophes; volcanism; climatic changes; geochemistry; mineralogy; fossil records; biospheric traumas; stratigraphy; mathematical models; and ocean dynamics.

Events leading to foreign material being left in the primary heat transport system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Groom, S.H.; Benton, A.J.

1996-01-01

On October 6,1995, following an extensive maintenance outage which had included boiler primary side cleaning, a Primary Heat Transport (PHT) system pump run was started in preparation for ultrasonic feeder flow measurements. Wooden debris in the system resulted in failure of the shaft seals of the PHT Pump 1. The subsequent investigation and assessment of this event provided an understanding of both the pump shaft failure mechanism and the origin of the debris in the PHT system. The pump shaft failed as a result of friction-generated heat resulting from contact between the rotating shaft and the stationary seal housing. This contact was initiated by mechanical and hydraulic imbalance in the pump impeller caused by wooden debris lodged in the impeller. The origin of the wooden debris was a temporary plywood cover which was inadvertently left in a boiler following maintenance. This cover moved from the boiler to the pump impeller when the PHT pumps were started. The cover was not accounted for and verified as being removed prior to boiler closure, although a visual inspection was conducted. A detailed institutional process for component accounting and verification of removal of materials did not exist at the time of this event. Details of the methods used to establish alternative heat sinks, provide debris recovery facilities and to assess the fitness for duty of the heat transport system and fuel channels prior to reactor startup are discussed in detail elsewhere. This report will concentrate on the events leading up to and following the events which ultimately resulted in failure of the PHT pump shaft

Quantitative Evaluation of Heavy Duty Machine Tools Remanufacturing Based on Modified Catastrophe Progression Method

Science.gov (United States)

shunhe, Li; jianhua, Rao; lin, Gui; weimin, Zhang; degang, Liu

2017-11-01

The result of remanufacturing evaluation is the basis for judging whether the heavy duty machine tool can remanufacture in the EOL stage of the machine tool lifecycle management.The objectivity and accuracy of evaluation is the key to the evaluation method.In this paper, the catastrophe progression method is introduced into the quantitative evaluation of heavy duty machine tools’ remanufacturing,and the results are modified by the comprehensive adjustment method,which makes the evaluation results accord with the standard of human conventional thinking.Using the catastrophe progression method to establish the heavy duty machine tools’ quantitative evaluation model,to evaluate the retired TK6916 type CNC floor milling-boring machine’s remanufacturing.The evaluation process is simple,high quantification,the result is objective.

There's More Than Catastrophizing in Chronic Pain: Low Frustration Tolerance and Self-Downing Also Predict Mental Health in Chronic Pain Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Suso-Ribera, Carlos; Jornet-Gibert, Montsant; Ribera Canudas, Maria Victoria; McCracken, Lance M; Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto; Gallardo-Pujol, David

2016-06-01

Among the potential range of irrational beliefs that could be used as predictors of physical and mental health, catastrophizing is the process that has received most attention in chronic pain research. Other irrational processes such as demandingness, low frustration tolerance, and self-downing have rarely been studied. The goal of this study was to explore whether this wider range of beliefs is associated with health in chronic pain patients beyond catastrophizing. A total of 492 chronic pain patients completed a measure of irrational beliefs, a measure of physical and mental health, and a numerical rating scale designed to assess pain intensity and interference. Irrational processes were more strongly associated with mental than with physical health. Low frustration tolerance and self-downing were found to be significantly related to mental health even after controlling for the effect of catastrophizing. Processes other than catastrophizing appear to have potentially important relationships with the mental health of people with chronic pain. These results may offer new intervention targets for practitioners.

Adolescent Depression and Negative Life Events, the Mediating Role of Cognitive Emotion Regulation

Science.gov (United States)

Stikkelbroek, Yvonne; Bodden, Denise H. M.; Kleinjan, Marloes; Reijnders, Mirjam; van Baar, Anneloes L.

2016-01-01

Background Depression during adolescence is a serious mental health problem. Difficulties in regulating evoked emotions after stressful life events are considered to lead to depression. This study examined if depressive symptoms were mediated by various cognitive emotion regulation strategies after stressful life events, more specifically, the loss of a loved one, health threats or relational challenges. Methods We used a sample of 398 adolescents (Mage = 16.94, SD = 2.90), including 52 depressed outpatients, who all reported stressful life event(s). Path analyses in Mplus were used to test mediation, for the whole sample as well as separately for participants scoring high versus low on depression, using multigroup analyses. Results Health threats and relational challenging stressful life events were associated with depressive symptoms, while loss was not. More frequent use of maladaptive strategies was related to more depressive symptoms. More frequent use of adaptive strategies was related to less depressive symptoms. Specific life events were associated with specific emotion regulation strategies. The relationship between challenging, stressful life events and depressive symptoms in the whole group was mediated by maladaptive strategies (self-blame, catastrophizing and rumination). No mediation effect was found for adaptive strategies. Conclusion The association between relational challenging, stressful life events and depressive symptoms was mediated by maladaptive, cognitive emotion regulation strategies. PMID:27571274

Active control with delay of catastrophic motion and horseshoes chaos in a single well Duffing oscillator

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nana Nbendjo, B.R.; Salissou, Y.; Woafo, P.

2005-01-01

In this paper, the control of escape and Melnikov chaos of an harmonically excited particle from a catastrophic (unbounded) single well phi 4 potential is considered. In the linear limit, the range of the control gain parameter leading to good control is obtained and the effect of time delays on the control force is taken into account. The approximate critical external forcing amplitudes for catastrophe and chaos are obtained by using the energy and Melnikov methods. The control efficiency is found by analysing the behaviour of the external critical forcing amplitude of the controlled system as compared to that of the uncontrolled system

Death Anxiety and Pain Catastrophizing Among Male Inmates With Nonsuicidal Self-Injury Behavior: A Comparative Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Enea, Violeta; Dafinoiu, Ion; Bogdan, Georgiana; Matei, Carmen

2017-07-01

Most of the studies concerning nonsuicidal self-injury behaviors of persons deprived of liberty were on female participants. This cross-sectional comparative study compared the levels of death anxiety, pain catastrophizing, dissociative experiences, and state-trait anger among male inmates with nonsuicidal self-injury behaviors and noninjuring controls. The results indicated high levels of death anxiety, dissociation, and pain catastrophizing in both groups of participants and the absence of significant differences between the groups. The implications of the results suggest the need of taking into consideration these variables in the behavior management plans used with inmates who engage in self-injurious behavior.

Assessing the economic burden of illness for tuberculosis patients in Benin: determinants and consequences of catastrophic health expenditures and inequities.

Science.gov (United States)

Laokri, Samia; Dramaix-Wilmet, Michèle; Kassa, Ferdinand; Anagonou, Séverin; Dujardin, Bruno

2014-10-01

To inform policy-making, we measured the risk, causes and consequences of catastrophic expenditures for tuberculosis and investigated potential inequities. Between August 2008 and February 2009, a cross-sectional study was conducted among all (245) smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis patients of six health districts from southern Benin. A standardised survey questionnaire covered the period of time elapsing from onset of tuberculosis symptoms to completion of treatment. Total direct cost exceeding the conventional 10% threshold of annual income was defined as catastrophic and used as principal outcome in a multivariable logistic regression. A sensitivity analysis was performed while varying the thresholds. A pure gradient of direct costs of tuberculosis in relation to income was observed. Incidence (78.1%) and intensity (14.8%) of catastrophic expenditure were high; varying thresholds was insensitive to the intensity. Incurring catastrophic expenditure was independently associated with lower- and middle-income quintiles (adjusted odd ratio (aOR) = 36.2, 95% CI [12.3-106.3] and aOR = 6.4 [2.8-14.6]), adverse pre-diagnosis stage (aOR = 5.4 [2.2-13.3]) and less education (aOR = 4.1[1.9-8.7]). Households incurred important days lost due to TB, indebtedness (37.1%), dissaving (51.0%) and other coping strategies (52.7%). Catastrophic direct costs and substantial indirect and coping costs may persist under the 'free' tuberculosis diagnosis and treatment strategy, as well as inequities in financial hardship. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Dynamic Atomic Reconstruction: How Fe_{3}O_{4} Thin Films Evade Polar Catastrophe for Epitaxy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. F. Chang

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Polar catastrophe at the interface of oxide materials with strongly correlated electrons has triggered a flurry of new research activities. The expectations are that the design of such advanced interfaces will become a powerful route to engineer devices with novel functionalities. Here, we investigate the initial stages of growth and the electronic structure of the spintronic Fe_{3}O_{4}/MgO(001 interface. Using soft x-ray absorption spectroscopy, we have discovered that the so-called A-sites are completely missing in the first Fe_{3}O_{4} monolayer. This discovery allows us to develop an unexpected but elegant growth principle in which, during deposition, the Fe atoms are constantly on the move to solve the divergent electrostatic potential problem, thereby ensuring epitaxy and stoichiometry at the same time. This growth principle provides a new perspective for the design of interfaces.

Topical study on IRS events involving foreign material intrusion in plant systems. First issue. Report of a consultants meeting. Working material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

Recent exchange of operational safety experience among countries, within the framework of the IRS, revealed a noticeable increase in incidents involving foreign material intrusion (FMI) in nuclear power plant systems. These incidents appeared to have safety impact, sometimes widespread, on many systems and components, including the reactor core, control rods, the secondary side, and other support systems such as the electrical, air, and water systems. Notwithstanding the economic penalties and the operational problems that can arise from the FMI, many events indicated severe component damages, challenges to safety systems and to fuel integrity. Difficulties encountered with the removal of foreign material present further challenges due to the long term effects of such material remaining in the system and interacting with either fuel cladding, with the potential of releasing fission products in coolant systems, or with the system pressure boundary with the potential for material wear and sudden failure of the pressure boundary. The FMI topic was, therefore, one of a number of topics that was recommended by the TCM in 1996 for investigation. A consultant meeting was held at the IAEA during the period 14-18 April 1997 to address this topic. Figs

Re-Verification of the IRHN57133SE and IRHN57250SE for Single Event Gate Rupture and Single Event Burnout

Science.gov (United States)

Scheick, Leif

2010-01-01

The vertical metal oxide semiconductor field-effect transistor (MOSFET) is a widely used power transistor onboard a spacecraft. The MOSFET is typically employed in power supplies and high current switching applications. Due to the inherent high electric fields in the device, power MOSFETs are sensitive to heavy ion irradiation and can fail catastrophically as a result of single event gate rupture (SEGR) or single event burnout (SEB). Manufacturers have designed radiation-hardened power MOSFETs for space applications. These radiation hardened devices are not immune to SEGR or SEB but, rather, can exhibit them at a much more damaging ion than their non-radiation hardened counterparts. See [1] through [5] for more information.This effort was to investigate the SEGR and SEB responses of two power MOSFETs from IR(the IRHN57133SE and the IRHN57250SE) that have recently been produced on a new fabrication line. These tests will serve as a limited verification of these parts, but it is acknowledged that further testing on the respective parts may be needed for some mission profiles.

The effect of catastrophic collisional fragmentation and diffuse medium accretion on a computational interstellar dust system

Science.gov (United States)

Liffman, Kurt

1990-01-01

The effects of catastrophic collisional fragmentation and diffuse medium accretion on a the interstellar dust system are computed using a Monte Carlo computer model. The Monte Carlo code has as its basis an analytic solution of the bulk chemical evolution of a two-phase interstellar medium, described by Liffman and Clayton (1989). The model is subjected to numerous different interstellar processes as it transfers from one interstellar phase to another. Collisional fragmentation was found to be the dominant physical process that shapes the size spectrum of interstellar dust. It was found that, in the diffuse cloud phase, 90 percent of the refractory material is locked up in the dust grains, primarily due to accretion in the molecular medium. This result is consistent with the observed depletions of silicon. Depletions were found to be affected only slightly by diffuse cloud accretion.

Global and regional aspects for genesis of catastrophic floods - the problems of forecasting and estimates for mass and water balance (surface and groundwater contribution)

Science.gov (United States)

Trifonova, Tatiana; Arakelian, Sergei; Trifonov, Dmitriy; Abrakhin, Sergei

2017-04-01

1. The principal goal of present talk is, to discuss the existing uncertainty and discrepancy between water balance estimation for the area under heavy rain flood, on the one hand from the theoretical approach and reasonable data base due to rainfall going from atmosphere and, on the other hand the real practicle surface water flow parameters measured by some methods and/or fixed by some eye-witness (cf. [1]). The vital item for our discussion is that the last characteristics sometimes may be noticeably grater than the first ones. Our estimations show the grater water mass discharge observation during the events than it could be expected from the rainfall process estimation only [2]. The fact gives us the founding to take into account the groundwater possible contribution to the event. 2. We carried out such analysis, at least, for two catastrophic water events in 2015, i.e. (1) torrential rain and catastrophic floods in Lousiana (USA), June 16-20; (2) Assam flood (India), Aug. 22 - Sept. 8. 3. Groundwater flood of a river terrace discussed e.g. in [3] but in respect when rise of the water table above the land surface occurs coincided with intense rainfall and being as a relatively rare phenomenon. In our hypothesis the principal part of possible groundwater exit to surface is connected with a crack-net system state in earth-crust (including deep layers) as a water transportation system, first, being in variated pressure field for groundwater basin and, second, modified by different reasons ( both suddenly (the Krimsk-city flash flood event, July 2012, Russia) and/or smoothly (the Amur river flood event, Aug.-Sept. 2013, Russia) ). Such reconstruction of 3D crack-net under external reasons (resulting even in local variation of pressures in any crack-section) is a principal item for presented approach. 4. We believe that in some cases the interconnection of floods and preceding earthquakes may occur. The problem discuss by us for certain events ( e.g. in addition to

Metallicity at interphase boundaries due to polar catastrophe induced by charge density discontinuity

KAUST Repository

Albar, Arwa; Tahini, Hassan Ali; Schwingenschlö gl, Udo

2018-01-01

the electronic states at stoichiometric SnO/SnO2 (110) interphase boundaries. In this system, one would not expect polar catastrophe to have a role according to state-of-the-art theory because the interface lacks formal charge discontinuity. However, we observe

Treatment of catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome

Science.gov (United States)

Kazzaz, Nayef M.; McCune, W. Joseph; Knight, Jason S.

2016-01-01

Purpose of review Catastrophic antiphospholipid syndrome (CAPS) is a severe manifestation of APS. While affecting only 1% of patients with APS, the condition is frequently fatal if not recognized and treated early. Here, we will review the current approach to diagnosis and treatment of CAPS. Recent findings Data from the international “CAPS registry,” spearheaded by the European Forum on Antiphospholipid Antibodies, have improved our understanding of at-risk patients, typical clinical features, and associated/precipitating diagnoses. Current guidelines also continue to support a role for anticoagulants and glucocorticoids as foundation therapy in all patients. Finally, new basic science and case series suggest that novel therapies, such as rituximab and eculizumab warrant further study. Summary Attention to associated diagnoses such as infection and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) are critical at the time of diagnosis. All patients should be treated with anticoagulation, corticosteroids, and possibly plasma exchange. In patients with SLE, cyclophosphamide should also be considered. In refractory or relapsing cases, new therapies such as rituximab and possibly eculizumab may be options, but need further study. PMID:26927441

Application of catastrophe theory to nuclear structure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scharff-Goldhaber, G.; Dresden, M.

1979-01-01

Three two-parameter models, one describing an A-body system (the atomic nucleus) and two describing many-body systems (the van der Waals gas and the ferroelectric (perovskite) system) are compared within the framework of catastrophe theory. It is shown that each has a critical point (second-order phase transition) when the two counteracting forces controlling it are in balance; further, each undergoes a first-order phase transition when one of the forces vanishes (the deforming force for the nucleus, the attractive force for the van der Waals gas, and the dielectric constant for the perovskite). Finally, when both parameters are kept constant, a kind of phase transition may occur at a critical angular momentum, critical pressure, and critical electric field. 3 figures, 1 table

Hypokalemia-associated catastrophic rhabdomyolysis in ulcerative colitis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tzvetanov, G.

2009-01-01

A case of catastrophic hypokalemia-associated rhabdomyolysis in patient with ulcerative colitis (UC) is reported. A 60-year-old man presented with an exacerbation of UC and hypokalemia due to long-term diarrhea. While in the hospital, rhabdomyolysis developed in association with worsening hypokalemia. The hypokalemia was refractory to treatment and progressive course. Patient developed painful cramps of the masticatory and facial musculature associated with a moderated weakness in distal muscle groups. The weakness extended to intercostals and diaphragm muscles and led to respiratory deficiency. Serum concentration of creatine kinase was highly increased. Patient died from advancing and insurmountable cardiovascular deficiency. The causative role of hypokalemia for muscle involvement and rhabdomyolysis in patients with inflammatory bowel diseases was discussed. (author)

Global regime shift dynamics of catastrophic sea urchin overgrazing

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, S. D.; Scheibling, R. E.; Rassweiler, A.; Johnson, C. R.; Shears, N.; Connell, S. D.; Salomon, A. K.; Norderhaug, K. M.; Pérez-Matus, A.; Hernández, J. C.; Clemente, S.; Blamey, L. K.; Hereu, B.; Ballesteros, E.; Sala, E.; Garrabou, J.; Cebrian, E.; Zabala, M.; Fujita, D.; Johnson, L. E.

2015-01-01

A pronounced, widespread and persistent regime shift among marine ecosystems is observable on temperate rocky reefs as a result of sea urchin overgrazing. Here, we empirically define regime-shift dynamics for this grazing system which transitions between productive macroalgal beds and impoverished urchin barrens. Catastrophic in nature, urchin overgrazing in a well-studied Australian system demonstrates a discontinuous regime shift, which is of particular management concern as recovery of desirable macroalgal beds requires reducing grazers to well below the initial threshold of overgrazing. Generality of this regime-shift dynamic is explored across 13 rocky reef systems (spanning 11 different regions from both hemispheres) by compiling available survey data (totalling 10 901 quadrats surveyed in situ) plus experimental regime-shift responses (observed during a total of 57 in situ manipulations). The emergent and globally coherent pattern shows urchin grazing to cause a discontinuous ‘catastrophic’ regime shift, with hysteresis effect of approximately one order of magnitude in urchin biomass between critical thresholds of overgrazing and recovery. Different life-history traits appear to create asymmetry in the pace of overgrazing versus recovery. Once shifted, strong feedback mechanisms provide resilience for each alternative state thus defining the catastrophic nature of this regime shift. Importantly, human-derived stressors can act to erode resilience of desirable macroalgal beds while strengthening resilience of urchin barrens, thus exacerbating the risk, spatial extent and irreversibility of an unwanted regime shift for marine ecosystems.

Development of advanced high heat flux and plasma-facing materials

Science.gov (United States)

Linsmeier, Ch.; Rieth, M.; Aktaa, J.; Chikada, T.; Hoffmann, A.; Hoffmann, J.; Houben, A.; Kurishita, H.; Jin, X.; Li, M.; Litnovsky, A.; Matsuo, S.; von Müller, A.; Nikolic, V.; Palacios, T.; Pippan, R.; Qu, D.; Reiser, J.; Riesch, J.; Shikama, T.; Stieglitz, R.; Weber, T.; Wurster, S.; You, J.-H.; Zhou, Z.

2017-09-01

Plasma-facing materials and components in a fusion reactor are the interface between the plasma and the material part. The operational conditions in this environment are probably the most challenging parameters for any material: high power loads and large particle and neutron fluxes are simultaneously impinging at their surfaces. To realize fusion in a tokamak or stellarator reactor, given the proven geometries and technological solutions, requires an improvement of the thermo-mechanical capabilities of currently available materials. In its first part this article describes the requirements and needs for new, advanced materials for the plasma-facing components. Starting points are capabilities and limitations of tungsten-based alloys and structurally stabilized materials. Furthermore, material requirements from the fusion-specific loading scenarios of a divertor in a water-cooled configuration are described, defining directions for the material development. Finally, safety requirements for a fusion reactor with its specific accident scenarios and their potential environmental impact lead to the definition of inherently passive materials, avoiding release of radioactive material through intrinsic material properties. The second part of this article demonstrates current material development lines answering the fusion-specific requirements for high heat flux materials. New composite materials, in particular fiber-reinforced and laminated structures, as well as mechanically alloyed tungsten materials, allow the extension of the thermo-mechanical operation space towards regions of extreme steady-state and transient loads. Self-passivating tungsten alloys, demonstrating favorable tungsten-like plasma-wall interaction behavior under normal operation conditions, are an intrinsic solution to otherwise catastrophic consequences of loss-of-coolant and air ingress events in a fusion reactor. Permeation barrier layers avoid the escape of tritium into structural and cooling

Nature of events and alcohol-related content in marketing materials at a university freshers' fair: a summative content analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Fuller, A; Fleming, K M; Szatkowski, L; Bains, M

2017-12-15

The transition to university is a potentially influential time upon students' drinking behaviour. This study explored the nature of activities and alcohol-related content in marketing materials from student-led societies and local businesses provided to students, at a university freshers' fair in the UK. All marketing materials handed out at the fair were collected across the 5-day event in September 2015. Written and visual content was analysed using a summative qualitative content analysis. Most student-led societies promoted social events they were hosting (n = 530), most of which took place in a drinking venue or referred to drinking (n = 335). Only four explicitly alcohol-free events were promoted. Student-led societies also promoted activities relating to their interest, e.g. sports training (n = 519), a small proportion of which had references to drinking and drinking venues (n = 54). Three societies provided promotional handouts from local bars or nightclubs. Local bars, pubs and nightclubs promoted events they hosted (n = 81) as well as alcoholic drink promotions (n = 79) and alcohol branded advertising (n = 22), albeit infrequently for the latter. In the first week of university, students are exposed to alcohol-related events, promotions and advertising, which may act as an incentive to participate in drinking. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Faculty of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

Use of documentary sources on past flood events for flood risk management and land planning

Science.gov (United States)

Cœur, Denis; Lang, Michel

2008-09-01

The knowledge of past catastrophic events can improve flood risk mitigation policy, with a better awareness against risk. As such historical information is usually available in Europe for the past five centuries, historians are able to understand how past society dealt with flood risk, and hydrologists can include information on past floods into an adapted probabilistic framework. In France, Flood Risk Mitigation Maps are based either on the largest historical known flood event or on the 100-year flood event if it is greater. Two actions can be suggested in terms of promoting the use of historical information for flood risk management: (1) the development of a regional flood data base, with both historical and current data, in order to get a good feedback on recent events and to improve the flood risk education and awareness; (2) the commitment to keep a persistent/perennial management of a reference network of hydrometeorological observations for climate change studies.

Negative cognitive errors and positive illusions for negative divorce events: predictors of children's psychological adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazur, E; Wolchik, S A; Sandler, I N

1992-12-01

This study examined the relations among negative cognitive errors regarding hypothetical negative divorce events, positive illusions about those same events, actual divorce events, and psychological adjustment in 38 8- to 12-year-old children whose parents had divorced within the previous 2 years. Children's scores on a scale of negative cognitive errors (catastrophizing, overgeneralizing, and personalizing) correlated significantly with self-reported symptoms of anxiety and self-esteem, and with maternal reports of behavior problems. Children's scores on a scale measuring positive illusions (high self-regard, illusion of personal control, and optimism for the future) correlated significantly with less self-reported aggression. Both appraisal types accounted for variance in some measures of symptomatology beyond that explained by actual events. There was no significant association between children's negative cognitive errors and positive illusions. The implications of these results for theories of negative cognitive errors and of positive illusions, as well as for future research, are discussed.

Guide to the declaration procedure and coding system for criteria concerning significant events related to safety, radiation protection or the environment, applicable to basic nuclear installations and the transport of radioactive materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lacoste, Andre-Claude

2005-01-01

This guide notably contains various forms associated with the declaration of significant events, and explanations to fill them in: significant event declaration form for a basic nuclear installation, significant event declaration form for radioactive material transport, significant event report for a basic nuclear installation, significant event report for radioactive material transport, declaration criteria for significant events related to the safety of non-PWR basic nuclear installations, declaration criteria for significant events related to PWR safety, significant events declared further to events resulting in group 1 unavailability and non-compliance with technical operating specifications, declaration criteria for significant events concerning radiation protection for basic nuclear installations, declaration criteria for significant events concerning environmental protection, applicable to basic nuclear installations, and declaration criteria for significant events concerning radioactive material transport

Multiple remote-sensing assessment of the catastrophic collapse in Langtang Valley induced by the 2015 Gorkha earthquake

Science.gov (United States)

Nagai, Hiroto; Watanabe, Manabu; Tomii, Naoya; Tadono, Takeo; Suzuki, Shinichi

2017-11-01

The main shock of the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake in Nepal induced numerous avalanches, rockfalls, and landslides in Himalayan mountain regions. A major village in the Langtang Valley was destroyed and numerous people were victims of a catastrophic avalanche event, which consisted of snow, ice, rock, and blast wind. Understanding the hazard process mainly depends on limited witness accounts, interviews, and an in situ survey after a monsoon season. To record the immediate situation and to understand the deposition process, we performed an assessment by means of satellite-based observations carried out no later than 2 weeks after the event. The avalanche-induced sediment deposition was delineated with the calculation of decreasing coherence and visual interpretation of amplitude images acquired from the Phased Array-type L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar-2 (PALSAR-2). These outline areas are highly consistent with that delineated from a high-resolution optical image of WorldView-3 (WV-3). The delineated sediment areas were estimated as 0.63 km2 (PALSAR-2 coherence calculation), 0.73 km2 (PALSAR-2 visual interpretation), and 0.88 km2 (WV-3). In the WV-3 image, surface features were classified into 10 groups. Our analysis suggests that the avalanche event contained a sequence of (1) a fast splashing body with an air blast, (2) a huge, flowing muddy mass, (3) less mass flowing from another source, (4) a smaller amount of splashing and flowing mass, and (5) splashing mass without flowing on the east and west sides. By means of satellite-derived pre- and post-event digital surface models, differences in the surface altitudes of the collapse events estimated the total volume of the sediments as 5.51 ± 0.09 × 106 m3, the largest mass of which are distributed along the river floor and a tributary water stream. These findings contribute to detailed numerical simulation of the avalanche sequences and source identification; furthermore, altitude measurements after ice and snow

Community centers of UNESCO-Chernobyl programme-psychological support model for population in a post-catastrophe crisis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garnets, O.

1998-01-01

Community Centers for Psycho-social Rehabilitation created within UNESCO - Chernobyl Programme (Project no 64) is aimed at providing psychological support to population suffered from the catastrophe. Centers are located in communities that in different ways suffered from Chernobyl - people evacuated and relocated from the contaminated territories, people who are still living in contaminated regions, employees of the nuclear power plant etc. Centres are providing psychological support to people suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe, trough developing adaptive behavior models under living conditions that changed - both ecological and social and economic crises, developing of personal and social responsibility in community members. The professionals of Community Centers implement activities aimed on coping victimization, on community interaction and communities restructuring. They are working with all age and social groups in the communities, with acute crises and suicide prevention, creating mutual support mechanisms. Centres performance results in decrease of psycho-social tension and anxiety in population. Centers present successfully functioning model of social and psychological support under complicated ecological and social conditions in post soviet countries. They have accumulated unique professional and organizational experience of efficient work in, a post-catastrophe period under social and economic crisis. (author)

Community centers of UNESCO-Chernobyl programme-psychological support model for population in a post-catastrophe crisis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garnets, O. [UNESCO-Chernobyl Programme Project (Ukraine)

1998-07-01

Community Centers for Psycho-social Rehabilitation created within UNESCO - Chernobyl Programme (Project no 64) is aimed at providing psychological support to population suffered from the catastrophe. Centers are located in communities that in different ways suffered from Chernobyl - people evacuated and relocated from the contaminated territories, people who are still living in contaminated regions, employees of the nuclear power plant etc. Centres are providing psychological support to people suffered from Chernobyl catastrophe, trough developing adaptive behavior models under living conditions that changed - both ecological and social and economic crises, developing of personal and social responsibility in community members. The professionals of Community Centers implement activities aimed on coping victimization, on community interaction and communities restructuring. They are working with all age and social groups in the communities, with acute crises and suicide prevention, creating mutual support mechanisms. Centres performance results in decrease of psycho-social tension and anxiety in population. Centers present successfully functioning model of social and psychological support under complicated ecological and social conditions in post soviet countries. They have accumulated unique professional and organizational experience of efficient work in, a post-catastrophe period under social and economic crisis. (author)

Metal Dusting: Catastrophic Corrosion by Carbon

Science.gov (United States)

Young, David J.; Zhang, Jianqiang

2012-12-01

Reducing gases rich in carbon-bearing species such as CO can be supersaturated with respect to graphite at intermediate temperatures of about 400-700°C. Engineering alloys such as low-alloy and stainless steels, and heat-resisting iron-, nickel-, and cobalt-base alloys catalyze gas processes that release the carbon. An understanding of how the resulting carbon deposition can destroy alloys at a catastrophically rapid rate has been the objective of a great deal of research. The current review of recent work on metal dusting covers the mass transfer—principally carbon diffusion—and graphite nucleation processes involved. A clear distinction emerges between ferritic alloys, which form cementite and precipitate graphite within that carbide, and austenitics that nucleate graphite directly within the metal. The latter process is facilitated by the strong orientation relationship between the graphite and face-centered cubic (fcc) lattices. Strategies for the control of dusting are briefly outlined.

Spiral arms, comets and terrestrial catastrophism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clube, S.V.M.; Napier, W.M.

1982-01-01

A review is presented of an hypothesis of terrestrial catastrophism in which comets grow in molecular clouds and are captured by the Sun as it passes through the spiral arms of the Galaxy. Assuming that comets are a major supplier of the Earth-crossing (Appollo) asteroid population, the latter fluctuates correspondingly and leads to episodes of terrestrial bombardment. Changes in the rotational momentum of core and mantle, generated by impacts, lead to episodes of magnetic field reversal and tectonic activity, while surface phenomena lead to ice-ages and mass extinctions. An episodic geophysical history with an interstellar connection is thus implied. If comets in spiral arms are necessary intermediaries in the process of star formation, the theory also has implications relating to early solar system history and galactic chemistry. These aspects are briefly discussed with special reference to the nature of spiral arms. (author)

Changes in Depression, Health Anxiety, and Pain Catastrophizing Between Enrollment and 1 Month After a Radius Fracture.

Science.gov (United States)

Golkari, Sina; Teunis, Teun; Ring, David; Vranceanu, Ana-Maria

2015-01-01

To test the difference in symptoms of (1) depression, (2) health anxiety, and (3) catastrophic thinking between 1 and 6 weeks after injury to the radius. In total, 69 adult patients with a minimally displaced radial head or distal radius fracture were prospectively enrolled. After diagnosis, we recorded demographic variables, 11-point ordinal numerical pain score, and agreement with "no pain, no gain"; Disabilities of the Arms, Shoulder, and Hand (DASH) questionnaire; Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression Scale; the Whiteley Index; and the Pain Catastrophizing Scale. In total, 55 patients (80%) returned after 1 month to reevaluate pain, Disabilities of the Arms, Shoulder, and Hand, Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression, Whiteley Index, and Pain Catastrophizing Scale scores. Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression scores decreased by an average of 5 ± 9 points (p psychologic measures are used as a screening tool to predict outcome after treatment, one should account for a patient's disease phase. Prognostic level I. Copyright © 2015 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Terrestrial catastrophe caused by cometary impact at the end of Cretaceous

Science.gov (United States)

Hsü, Kenneth J.

1980-05-01

Evidence is presented indicating that the extinction, at the end of the Cretaceous, of large terrestrial animals was caused by atmospheric heating during a cometary impact and that the extinction of calcareous marine plankton was a consequence of poisoning by cyanide released by the fallen comet and of a catastrophic rise in calcite-compensation depth in the oceans after the detoxification of the cyanide.

New Mechanism for Explaing LENR and Certain forms of Technological and Natural Catastrophes

Science.gov (United States)

Gareev, Fangil

2008-03-01

We proposed a new mechanism for low energy nuclear reactions (LENR): cooperative resonance processes involving the whole the system - nuclei + atoms + condensed matter can occur at a smaller threshold energies than the corresponding ones on free constituents. The cooperative processes can be induced and enhanced by low energy external fields. The excess heat is the emission of internal energy and transmutations at LENR are the result of a redistribution of internal energy of the whole system. The lack of financial support and ignorance by mainstream physicists has resulted in the LENR field not being accepted. We postulate that LENR can lead to catastrophes, potentially including, the runaway evcnt involving the reactor at the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant, the explosion of the twin towers during the 11 September 2001 World Trade Center collapse, in New York, the explosion of transformers in Moscow, catastrophes of submarines, and other phenomena associated with a cooperative resonance synchronization mechanism.

Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations (II): thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations.

Science.gov (United States)

Cervera, R; Tektonidou, M G; Espinosa, G; Cabral, A R; González, E B; Erkan, D; Vadya, S; Adrogué, H E; Solomon, M; Zandman-Goddard, G; Shoenfeld, Y

2011-02-01

The objectives of the 'Task Force on Catastrophic Antiphospholipid Syndrome (APS) and Non-criteria APS Manifestations' were to assess the clinical utility of the international consensus statement on classification criteria and treatment guidelines for the catastrophic APS, to identify and grade the studies that analyze the relationship between the antiphospholipid antibodies and the non-criteria APS manifestations, and to present the current evidence regarding the accuracy of these non-criteria APS manifestations for the detection of patients with APS. This article summarizes the studies analyzed on thrombocytopenia and skin manifestations, and presents the recommendations elaborated by the Task Force after this analysis.

Effectiveness of the psychological and pharmacological treatment of catastrophization in patients with fibromyalgia: a randomized controlled trial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magallón Rosa

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Fibromyalgia is a prevalent and disabling disorder characterized by widespread pain and other symptoms such as insomnia, fatigue or depression. Catastrophization is considered a key clinical symptom in fibromyalgia; however, there are no studies on the pharmacological or psychological treatment of catastrophizing. The general aim of this study is to assess the effectiveness of cognitive-behaviour therapy and recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia (pregabalin, with duloxetine added where there is a comorbid depression, compared with usual treatment at primary care level. Method/design Design: A multi-centre, randomized controlled trial involving three groups: the control group, consisting of usual treatment at primary care level, and two intervention groups, one consisting of cognitive-behaviour therapy, and the other consisting of the recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia. Setting: 29 primary care health centres in the city of Zaragoza, Spain. Sample: 180 patients, aged 18–65 years, able to understand and read Spanish, who fulfil criteria for primary fibromyalgia, with no previous psychological treatment, and no pharmacological treatment or their acceptance to discontinue it two weeks before the onset of the study. Intervention: Psychological treatment is based on the manualized protocol developed by Prof. Escobar et al, from the University of New Jersey, for the treatment of somatoform disorders, which has been adapted by our group for the treatment of fibromyalgia. It includes 10 weekly sessions of cognitive-behaviour therapy. Pharmacological therapy consists of the recommended pharmacological treatment for fibromyalgia: pregabalin (300–600 mg/day, with duloxetine (60–120 mg/day added where there is a comorbid depression. Measurements: The following socio-demographic data will be collected: sex, age, marital status, education, occupation and social class. The diagnosis of psychiatric

Snow Catastrophe Conditions: What is its Impact on Orthopedic Injuries?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohsen Mardani-Kivi

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Background:   Iran places sixth amongst high risk natural disaster countries and Guilan province of Iran shoulders a large amount of socio-economic burden due to snow catastrophes. The more knowledge of circumstances we have, the more efficient our future encounters will be. Methods: In this retrospective study, of all of the patients admitted to Poursina Hospital due to snow and ice related trauma in the first two weeks of February 2014, 306 cases were found eligible for entry into the present study. Results: Of the 306 eligible patients (383 injuries, there were 175 men (57.2% and 131 women (42.8%. Most patients suffered from orthopedic injuries (81% and the most common fractures were distal radius fractures in the upper extremities and hip fractures in the lower extremities. Slipping was the most common and motor vehicle accidents had the rarest injury mechanisms. It was shown that the frequency of injuries were higher on icy days (67.6% than snowy days (32.4%. Conclusions: Snow crises may lead to increased risk of slipping and falling situations, especially on icy days. The peak of injury rates is a few days after snowfall with the most common injury being distal radius fracture. Providing essential instructions and supporting resource allocation to better handle such catastrophes may improve outcomes.

Catastrophe Insurance Modeled by Shot-Noise Processes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thorsten Schmidt

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Shot-noise processes generalize compound Poisson processes in the following way: a jump (the shot is followed by a decline (noise. This constitutes a useful model for insurance claims in many circumstances; claims due to natural disasters or self-exciting processes exhibit similar features. We give a general account of shot-noise processes with time-inhomogeneous drivers inspired by recent results in credit risk. Moreover, we derive a number of useful results for modeling and pricing with shot-noise processes. Besides this, we obtain some highly tractable examples and constitute a useful modeling tool for dynamic claims processes. The results can in particular be used for pricing Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds, a traded risk-linked security. Additionally, current results regarding the estimation of shot-noise processes are reviewed.

Pain Sensitivity and Pain Catastrophizing are Associated with Persistent Pain and Disability after Lumbar Spine Surgery

Science.gov (United States)

Coronado, Rogelio A.; George, Steven Z.; Devin, Clinton J.; Wegener, Stephen T.; Archer, Kristin R.

2015-01-01

Objective To examine whether pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing are associated with persistent pain and disability after lumbar spine surgery. Design Prospective observational cohort study. Setting Academic medical center. Participants Patients (N = 68, mean ± SD age = 57.9 ± 13.1 years, N female = 40 (58.8%)) undergoing spine surgery for a degenerative condition from March 1, 2012 to April 30, 2013 were assessed 6 weeks, 3 months, and 6 months after surgery. Interventions Not applicable. Main Outcome Measure(s) The main outcome measures were persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, and disability. Patients with persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability were identified as those patients reporting Brief Pain Inventory scores ≥ 4 and Oswestry Disability Index scores ≥ 21 at all postoperative time points. Results From 6 weeks to 6 months after surgery, approximately 12.9%, 24.2%, and 46.8% of patients reported persistent back pain intensity, pain interference, or disability, respectively. Increased pain sensitivity at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.0; 4.1) after surgery. Increased pain catastrophizing at 6 weeks was associated with having persistent back pain intensity (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), pain interference (OR = 1.1, 95% CI = 1.0; 1.2), and disability (OR = 1.3, 95% CI = 1.1; 1.4). An interaction effect was not found between pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing on persistent outcomes (p > 0.05). Conclusion(s) Findings suggest the importance of early postoperative screening for pain sensitivity and pain catastrophizing in order to identify patients at-risk for poor postoperative pain intensity, interference, and/or disability outcomes. Future research should consider the benefit of targeted therapeutic strategies for patients with these postoperative prognostic factors. PMID:26101845

Catastrophic Misinterpretations as a Predictor of Symptom Change during Treatment for Panic Disorder

Science.gov (United States)

Teachman, Bethany A.; Marker, Craig D.; Clerkin, Elise M.

2010-01-01

Objective: Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related…

Diversification through Catastrophe Bonds: Lessons from the Subprime Financial Crisis

OpenAIRE

Peter Carayannopoulos; M Fabricio Perez

2015-01-01

Are catastrophe bonds (CAT bonds) zero-beta investments? Are they a valuable new source of diversification for investors? We study these questions by analysing the dynamic relations of CAT bond returns and the returns of the stock, corporate bond and government bond markets. Our multivariate GARCH model results provide evidence that CAT bonds are zero-beta assets only in non-crisis periods. We document that CAT bonds were not immune to the effects of the recent financial crisis. With the coll...

Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and Failed Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-30

Ropes James Chen Beam Physics Branch Plasma Physics Division December 30, 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. i REPORT...pressure gradient force combine to balance the major radial hoop force. The macroscopic forces on the flux ropes and onset conditions are quantified...Solar physics theory 67-4989-07 Quasi-Static Evolution, Catastrophe, and “Failed” Eruption of Solar Flux Ropes James Chen1 Plasma Physics Division

Creep and slip: Seismic precursors to the Nuugaatsiaq landslide (Greenland)

Science.gov (United States)

Poli, Piero

2017-09-01

Precursory signals to material's failure are predicted by numerical models and observed in laboratory experiments or using field data. These precursory signals are a marker of slip acceleration on weak regions, such as crustal faults. Observation of these precursory signals of catastrophic natural events, such as earthquakes and landslides, is necessary for improving our knowledge about the physics of the nucleation process. Furthermore, observing such precursory signals may help to forecast these catastrophic events or reduce their hazard. I report here the observation of seismic precursors to the Nuugaatsiaq landslide in Greenland. Time evolution of the detected precursors implies that an aseismic slip event is taking place for hours before the landslide, with an exponential increase of slip velocity. Furthermore, time evolution of the precursory signals' amplitude sheds light on the evolution of the fault physics during the nucleation process.

Mitotic catastrophe occurs in the absence of apoptosis in p53-null cells with a defective G1 checkpoint.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michalis Fragkos

Full Text Available Cell death occurring during mitosis, or mitotic catastrophe, often takes place in conjunction with apoptosis, but the conditions in which mitotic catastrophe may exhibit features of programmed cell death are still unclear. In the work presented here, we studied mitotic cell death by making use of a UV-inactivated parvovirus (adeno-associated virus; AAV that has been shown to induce a DNA damage response and subsequent death of p53-defective cells in mitosis, without affecting the integrity of the host genome. Osteosarcoma cells (U2OSp53DD that are deficient in p53 and lack the G1 cell cycle checkpoint respond to AAV infection through a transient G2 arrest. We found that the infected U2OSp53DD cells died through mitotic catastrophe with no signs of chromosome condensation or DNA fragmentation. Moreover, cell death was independent of caspases, apoptosis-inducing factor (AIF, autophagy and necroptosis. These findings were confirmed by time-lapse microscopy of cellular morphology following AAV infection. The assays used readily revealed apoptosis in other cell types when it was indeed occurring. Taken together the results indicate that in the absence of the G1 checkpoint, mitotic catastrophe occurs in these p53-null cells predominantly as a result of mechanical disruption induced by centrosome overduplication, and not as a consequence of a suicide signal.

Pricing index-based catastrophe bonds: Part 2: Object-oriented design issues and sensitivity analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Unger, André J. A.

2010-02-01

This work is the second installment in a two-part series, and focuses on object-oriented programming methods to implement an augmented-state variable approach to aggregate the PCS index and introduce the Bermudan-style call feature into the proposed CAT bond model. The PCS index is aggregated quarterly using a discrete Asian running-sum formulation. The resulting aggregate PCS index augmented-state variable is used to specify the payoff (principle) on the CAT bond based on reinsurance layers. The purpose of the Bermudan-style call option is to allow the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on making fixed coupon payments under prevailing interest rates. A sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the impact of uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of hurricanes on the price of the CAT bond. Results indicate that while the CAT bond is highly sensitive to the natural variability in the frequency of landfalling hurricanes between El Ninõ and non-El Ninõ years, it remains relatively insensitive to uncertainty in the magnitude of damages. In addition, results indicate that the maximum price of the CAT bond is insensitive to whether it is engineered to cover low frequency high magnitude events in a 'high' reinsurance layer relative to high frequency low magnitude events in a 'low' reinsurance layer. Also, while it is possible for the reinsurer to minimize their interest rate risk exposure on the fixed coupon payments, the impact of this risk on the price of the CAT bond appears small relative to the natural variability in the CAT bond price, and consequently catastrophic risk, due to uncertainty in the frequency and magnitude of landfalling hurricanes.

Catastrophic misinterpretations as a predictor of symptom change during treatment for panic disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Teachman, Bethany A; Marker, Craig D; Clerkin, Elise M

2010-12-01

Cognitive models of panic disorder suggest that change in catastrophic misinterpretations of bodily sensations will predict symptom reduction. To examine change processes, we used a repeated measures design to evaluate whether the trajectory of change in misinterpretations over the course of 12-week cognitive behavior therapy is related to the trajectory of change in a variety of panic-relevant outcomes. Participants had a primary diagnosis of panic disorder (N = 43; 70% female; mean age = 40.14 years). Race or ethnicity was reported as 91% Caucasian, 5% African American, 2.3% biracial, and 2.3% "other." Change in catastrophic misinterpretations (assessed with the Brief Body Sensations Interpretation Questionnaire; Clark et al., 1997) was used to predict a variety of treatment outcomes, including overall panic symptom severity (assessed with the Panic Disorder Severity Scale [PDSS]; Shear et al., 1997), panic attack frequency (assessed with the relevant PDSS item), panic-related distress/apprehension (assessed by a latent factor, including peak anxiety in response to a panic-relevant stressor-a straw breathing task), and avoidance (assessed by a latent factor, which included the Fear Questionnaire-Agoraphobic Avoidance subscale; Marks & Mathews, 1979). Bivariate latent difference score modeling indicated that, as expected, change in catastrophic misinterpretations predicted subsequent reductions in overall symptom severity, panic attack frequency, distress/apprehension, and avoidance behavior. However, change in the various symptom domains was not typically a significant predictor of later interpretation change (except for the distress/apprehension factor). These results provide considerable support for the cognitive model of panic and speak to the temporal sequence of change processes during therapy. (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved.

Prediction of catastrophe theory for heavy-ion collisions at high energies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuchin, I.A.

2002-01-01

Studying the nature of limiting fragmentation of nuclei in high energy heavy-ion collisions has shown that the dynamic system of the nucleus is inclined to enter a nonequilibrium state, schottische and disintegrate on separate nucleons under conditions typical to each collision. There is a question: how the phenomenon of multifragmentation is possible here, i. e. formation of several nucleus with masses on interval from a nucleon up to a material nucleus A in a final state. What is it - debris of a material nucleus or newly created daughter nuclei? The purpose of offered report is discussion of this question. The initial for us statement is taken from the theory of dynamic systems. Chaos is a result of hashing of phase space which is carried out by means of operations of distension and compression. The appropriate transformation are called baker-transformation or Smale's horseshoe. The geometrical picture of chaos is a folded relief of multi-dimensional phase space. The stochastic amplification is understood as growth of folder number and their size. In typical interactions of massive ions, chaos formation conditions are provided automatically due to alternate force influence of Coulomb and Yukawa fields - compression is replaced by distension, and distension - by compression. Extending this representation on a case of massive ion collision, we supplement it accounting a possibility of constituents (nucleons) strong interaction on small distances. The easiest way to make it is approximating minima of potential function V(x, c) in catastrophe theory by rectangular holes of Fermi-gas in nuclear physics. The catastrophe theory is necessary to find connection between channels of fragments birth of different charge and masses, proceeding from the general form of a multi-dimensional phase space relief (a kind of potential function). The main result which can be taken from this theory at the given stage of researches consists in the general form of a curve of a

The impact of anxiety and catastrophizing on interleukin-6 responses to acute painful stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lazaridou A

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Asimina Lazaridou,1 Marc O Martel,1 Christine M Cahalan,1 Marise C Cornelius,1 Olivia Franceschelli,1 Claudia M Campbell,2 Jennifer A Haythornthwaite,2 Michael Smith,2 Joseph Riley,3 Robert R Edwards1 1Department of Anesthesiology, Harvard Medical School, Brigham & Women’s Hospital, Boston, MA, USA; 2Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA; 3Department of Community Dentistry and Behavioral Science, College of Dentistry, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA Objective: To examine the influence of anxiety and pain-related catastrophizing on the time course of acute interleukin-6 (IL-6 responses to standardized noxious stimulation among patients with chronic pain.Methods: Data were collected from 48 participants in the following demographically matched groups: patients with chronic pain (n=36 and healthy controls (n=12. Participants underwent a series of Quantitative Sensory Testing (QST procedures assessing responses to mechanical and thermal stimuli during two separate visits, in a randomized order. One visit consisted of standard, moderately painful QST procedures, while the other visit involved nonpainful analogs to these testing procedures. Blood samples were taken at baseline, and then for up to 2 hours after QST in order to study the time course of IL-6 responses.Results: Results of multilevel analyses revealed that IL-6 responses increased across assessment time points in both visits (p<0.001. While patients with chronic pain and healthy controls did not differ in the magnitude of IL-6 responses, psychological factors influenced IL-6 trajectories only in the chronic pain group. Among patients, increases in catastrophizing over the course of the QST session were associated with elevated IL-6 responses only during the painful QST session (p<0.05. When controlling for anxiety, results indicated that the main multilevel model among patients remained significant

Children's selective attention to pain and avoidance behaviour: the role of child and parental catastrophizing about pain.

Science.gov (United States)

Vervoort, Tine; Trost, Zina; Van Ryckeghem, Dimitri M L

2013-10-01

The present study investigated selective attention to pain in children, its implications for child avoidance behaviour, and the moderating role of dimensions comprising child and parental catastrophizing about pain (ie, rumination, magnification, and helplessness). Participants were 59 children (31 boys) aged 10-16 years and one of their parents (41 mothers). Children performed a dot-probe task in which child facial pain displays of varying pain expressiveness were presented. Child avoidance behaviour was indexed by child pain tolerance during a cold-pressor task. Children and parents completed measures of child and parent pain catastrophizing, respectively. Findings indicated that both the nature of child selective attention to pain and the impact of selective attention upon child avoidance behaviour were differentially sensitive to specific dimensions of child and parental catastrophizing. Specifically, findings showed greater tendency to shift attention away from pain faces (i.e.,, attentional avoidance) among children reporting greater pain magnification. A similar pattern was observed in terms of parental characteristics, such that children increasingly shifted attention away from pain with increasing levels of parental rumination and helplessness. Furthermore, child attentional avoidance was associated with greater avoidance behaviour (i.e., lower pain tolerance) among children reporting high levels of pain magnification and those whose parents reported greater rumination about pain. The current findings corroborate catastrophizing as a multidimensional construct that may differentially impact outcomes and attest to the importance of assessing both child and parental characteristics in relation to child pain-related attention and avoidance behaviour. Further research directions are discussed. Copyright © 2013 International Association for the Study of Pain. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The relationship between pain catastrophizing, kinesiophobia and subjective knee function during rehabilitation following anterior cruciate ligament reconstruction and meniscectomy: A pilot study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ana Tichonova

2016-01-01

Conclusions: Pain catastrophizing and kinesiophobia decreased during rehabilitation. A higher pain catastrophizing level correlated with a greater level of knee pain during activities, more difficulties experienced during daily activities before and after rehabilitation. A high level of kinesiophobia correlated with more difficulties experienced in daily activities and poorer knee-related quality of life before and after rehabilitation.

Cut-Off Points for Mild, Moderate, and Severe Pain on the Numeric Rating Scale for Pain in Patients with Chronic Musculoskeletal Pain: Variability and Influence of Sex and Catastrophizing.

Science.gov (United States)

Boonstra, Anne M; Stewart, Roy E; Köke, Albère J A; Oosterwijk, René F A; Swaan, Jeannette L; Schreurs, Karlein M G; Schiphorst Preuper, Henrica R

2016-01-01

Objectives: The 0-10 Numeric Rating Scale (NRS) is often used in pain management. The aims of our study were to determine the cut-off points for mild, moderate, and severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning in patients with chronic musculoskeletal pain, to measure the variability of the optimal cut-off points, and to determine the influence of patients' catastrophizing and their sex on these cut-off points. Methods: 2854 patients were included. Pain was assessed by the NRS, functioning by the Pain Disability Index (PDI) and catastrophizing by the Pain Catastrophizing Scale (PCS). Cut-off point schemes were tested using ANOVAs with and without using the PSC scores or sex as co-variates and with the interaction between CP scheme and PCS score and sex, respectively. The variability of the optimal cut-off point schemes was quantified using bootstrapping procedure. Results and conclusion: The study showed that NRS scores ≤ 5 correspond to mild, scores of 6-7 to moderate and scores ≥8 to severe pain in terms of pain-related interference with functioning. Bootstrapping analysis identified this optimal NRS cut-off point scheme in 90% of the bootstrapping samples. The interpretation of the NRS is independent of sex, but seems to depend on catastrophizing. In patients with high catastrophizing tendency, the optimal cut-off point scheme equals that for the total study sample, but in patients with a low catastrophizing tendency, NRS scores ≤ 3 correspond to mild, scores of 4-6 to moderate and scores ≥7 to severe pain in terms of interference with functioning. In these optimal cut-off schemes, NRS scores of 4 and 5 correspond to moderate interference with functioning for patients with low catastrophizing tendency and to mild interference for patients with high catastrophizing tendency. Theoretically one would therefore expect that among the patients with NRS scores 4 and 5 there would be a higher average PDI score for those with low

Household catastrophic healthcare expenditure and impoverishment due to rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Loganathan, Tharani; Lee, Way-Seah; Lee, Kok-Foo; Jit, Mark; Ng, Chiu-Wan

2015-01-01

While healthcare costs for rotavirus gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization may be burdensome on households in Malaysia, exploration on the distribution and catastrophic impact of these expenses on households are lacking. We assessed the economic burden, levels and distribution of catastrophic healthcare expenditure, the poverty impact on households and inequities related to healthcare payments for acute gastroenteritis requiring hospitalization in Malaysia. A two-year prospective, hospital-based study was conducted from 2008 to 2010 in an urban (Kuala Lumpur) and rural (Kuala Terengganu) setting in Malaysia. All children under the age of 5 years admitted for acute gastroenteritis were included. Patients were screened for rotavirus and information on healthcare expenditure was obtained. Of the 658 stool samples collected at both centers, 248 (38%) were positive for rotavirus. Direct and indirect costs incurred were significantly higher in Kuala Lumpur compared with Kuala Terengganu (US$222 Vs. US$45; pMalaysia.

Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

1998-01-01

This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

Conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing as preoperative predictors of pain following chest wall surgery: a prospective observational cohort study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kasper Grosen

Full Text Available Variability in patients' postoperative pain experience and response to treatment challenges effective pain management. Variability in pain reflects individual differences in inhibitory pain modulation and psychological sensitivity, which in turn may be clinically relevant for the disposition to acquire pain. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing on postoperative pain and pain persistency.Preoperatively, 42 healthy males undergoing funnel chest surgery completed the Spielberger's State-Trait Anxiety Inventory and Beck's Depression Inventory before undergoing a sequential conditioned pain modulation paradigm. Subsequently, the Pain Catastrophizing Scale was introduced and patients were instructed to reference the conditioning pain while answering. Ratings of movement-evoked pain and consumption of morphine equivalents were obtained during postoperative days 2-5. Pain was reevaluated at six months postoperatively.Patients reporting persistent pain at six months follow-up (n = 15 were not significantly different from pain-free patients (n = 16 concerning preoperative conditioned pain modulation response (Z = 1.0, P = 0.3 or level of catastrophizing (Z = 0.4, P = 1.0. In the acute postoperative phase, situational pain catastrophizing predicted movement-evoked pain, independently of anxiety and depression (β = 1.0, P = 0.007 whereas conditioned pain modulation predicted morphine consumption (β = -0.005, P = 0.001.Preoperative conditioned pain modulation and situational pain catastrophizing were not associated with the development of persistent postoperative pain following funnel chest repair. Secondary outcome analyses indicated that conditioned pain modulation predicted morphine consumption and situational pain catastrophizing predicted movement-evoked pain intensity in the acute postoperative phase. These findings may have

Safeguards summary event list (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidson, J.J.; MacMurdy, P.H.

1980-12-01

The List contains nine categories of events involving NRC licensed material or licensees. It is deliberately broad in scope for two main reasons. First, the list is designed to serve as a reference document. It is as complete and accurate as possible. Second, the list is intended to provide as broad a perspective of the nature of licensee-related events as possible. The nine categories of events are as follows: bomb-related events; intrusion events; missing and/or allegedly stolen events; transportation-related events; vandalism events; arson events; firearms-related events; sabotage events; and miscellaneous events

Modeling the Cloud to Enhance Capabilities for Crises and Catastrophe Management

Science.gov (United States)

2016-11-16

through support by a prior DOD grant, and in this project, we focused on how to effectively adapt this for the cloud catastrophe environment. The...the effects of varying cloud resources and the cloud architecture on L, o, and g values, we will be able to formulate realistic analytical models of...variation in computing and communication costs of test problems due to varying loads in the cloud environment. We used the parallel matrix multiplication

The Detained-Disappeared: Civilizational Catastrophe, the Collapse of Identity and Language*

OpenAIRE

Gatti, Gabriel

2013-01-01

This article proposes the concept of catastrophe as a starting point for the construction of appropriate representation strategies for phenomena of extreme social violence, exploring the case of the forced disappearance of individuals in Argentina and Uruguay. The analysis begins with a paradox: this process represents the culmination of policies for the construction and management of the population in post-colonial America, and is simultaneously applicable to the most completely formed produ...

Ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mel'nov, S.B.; Sarana, Yu.V.

2009-01-01

It is examined such ethical aspects of technogenic catastrophes sequences on the example of Chernobyl disaster, as violation of individual right to get information about the environment condition, getting the liquidator status, maintenance of all ethical norms while holding of biomedical research on disaster victims, and forming of social-ecological stress. (authors)

Penetration of n-hexadecane and water into wood under conditions simulating catastrophic floods

Science.gov (United States)

Ganna Baglayeva; Wayne S. Seames; Charles R. Frihart; Jane O' Dell; Evguenii I. Kozliak

2017-01-01

To simulate fuel oil spills occurring during catastrophic floods, short-term absorption of two chemicals, n-hexadecane (representative of semivolatile organic compounds in fuel oil) and water, into southern yellow pine was gravimetrically monitored as a function of time at ambient conditions. Different scenarios were run on the basis of (1) the...

The united fund of materials about Chernobyl-related issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bashilov, A. V.; Borisevich, N.Ya.; Sobolev, O.V.

2013-01-01

The United Fund of materials about Chernobyl-related issues was created in Russian-Belarusian Information Center on the Problems of the Consequences of the Catastrophe at Chernobyl NPP branch RSRUE 'Institute of Radiology' Ministry for Emergency Situations of the Republic of Belarus. It contains accumulated during the post-Chernobyl period systematized maps, scientific and practical, educational, documentary, journalistic, artistic, photographic and other information. (authors)

In search of colonial El Niño events and a brief history of meteorology in Ecuador

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Terneus

2006-01-01

Full Text Available This study shows a brief overview of the development of meteorology in Ecuador from historical documentation of climatic events in the Colonial era through to modern data collection. In the colonial era (16th century-1824, historical documents of rogation ceremonies and municipal proceedings, from the Quito area, provide a rich source of climate information, including El Niño events. Our preliminary findings show that very few of the historically documented catastrophes and other marked environmental events in Quito match known El Niño episodes. Independently, the first meteorological data was collected in Ecuador (beginning with La Condamine in 1738, followed by the earliest attempts to build a national meteorological network in the 1860's, linked closely to President Gabriel García Moreno and the Jesuits. The 1925 El Niño phenomenon was the first important meteorological episode recorded with scientific instrumentation in Ecuador, with newspapers providing complementary archives about the extreme impact of this event.

In search of colonial El Niño events and a brief history of meteorology in Ecuador

Science.gov (United States)

Terneus, A.; Gioda, A.

2006-02-01

This study shows a brief overview of the development of meteorology in Ecuador from historical documentation of climatic events in the Colonial era through to modern data collection. In the colonial era (16th century-1824), historical documents of rogation ceremonies and municipal proceedings, from the Quito area, provide a rich source of climate information, including El Niño events. Our preliminary findings show that very few of the historically documented catastrophes and other marked environmental events in Quito match known El Niño episodes. Independently, the first meteorological data was collected in Ecuador (beginning with La Condamine in 1738), followed by the earliest attempts to build a national meteorological network in the 1860's, linked closely to President Gabriel García Moreno and the Jesuits. The 1925 El Niño phenomenon was the first important meteorological episode recorded with scientific instrumentation in Ecuador, with newspapers providing complementary archives about the extreme impact of this event.

Review of events occurring during the transport of radioactive material for the period 1984-1993. A report on the IAEA's EVTRAM database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-09-01

In 1988 the International Atomic Energy Agency initiated data collecting activities for accidents and incidents (EVTRAM), shipments (SHIPTRAM) and radiation exposure (EXTRAM) in connection with radioactive material transport. This publication reports on the data made available for the EVTRAM database by ten Member States regarding events occurring during the transport of radioactive material during the period 1984-1993. The main objectives of the EVATRAM database are to provide information to support evaluations of the effectiveness of the IAEA's Regulations for the Safe Transport of Radioactive Material and provide a means of information exchange for any lessons learned. Member States providing data do so on a voluntary basis an report only those events that involve the safety features of packages being transported. The tables presented in this report are based solely on the data provided regarding 128 valid cases. Where it is meaningful to relate frequency tables this has been done in the section containing cross-tabulations; otherwise, the frequency tables are to be considered individually. Because it is neither complete nor comprehensive the data has severely limited uses for establishing trends or drawing conclusions. The statistical analyses performed are to be considered only in this light. Neither the data nor the tables may be cited as the basis for general, conclusive statements about radioactive material transport events. 4 refs, 5 tabs

Root cause analysis of critical events in neurosurgery, New South Wales.

Science.gov (United States)

Perotti, Vanessa; Sheridan, Mark M P

2015-09-01

Adverse events reportedly occur in 5% to 10% of health care episodes. Not all adverse events are the result of error; they may arise from systemic faults in the delivery of health care. Catastrophic events are not only physically devastating to patients, but they also attract medical liability and increase health care costs. Root cause analysis (RCA) has become a key tool for health care services to understand those adverse events. This study is a review of all the RCA case reports involving neurosurgical patients in New South Wales between 2008 and 2013. The case reports and data were obtained from the Clinical Excellence Commission database. The data was then categorized by the root causes identified and the recommendations suggested by the RCA committees. Thirty-two case reports were identified in the RCA database. Breaches in policy account for the majority of root causes identified, for example, delays in transfer of patients or wrong-site surgery, which always involved poor adherence to correct patient and site identification procedures. The RCA committees' recommendations included education for staff, and improvements in rostering and procedural guidelines. RCAs have improved the patient safety profile; however, the RCA committees have no power to enforce any recommendation or ensure compliance. A single RCA may provide little learning beyond the unit and staff involved. However, through aggregation of RCA data and dissemination strategies, health care workers can learn from adverse events and prevent future events from occurring. © 2015 Royal Australasian College of Surgeons.

Comparison of two cash transfer strategies to prevent catastrophic costs for poor tuberculosis-affected households in low- and middle-income countries: An economic modelling study.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudgard, William E; Evans, Carlton A; Sweeney, Sedona; Wingfield, Tom; Lönnroth, Knut; Barreira, Draurio; Boccia, Delia

2017-11-01

Illness-related costs for patients with tuberculosis (TB) ≥20% of pre-illness annual household income predict adverse treatment outcomes and have been termed "catastrophic." Social protection initiatives, including cash transfers, are endorsed to help prevent catastrophic costs. With this aim, cash transfers may either be provided to defray TB-related costs of households with a confirmed TB diagnosis (termed a "TB-specific" approach); or to increase income of households with high TB risk to strengthen their economic resilience (termed a "TB-sensitive" approach). The impact of cash transfers provided with each of these approaches might vary. We undertook an economic modelling study from the patient perspective to compare the potential of these 2 cash transfer approaches to prevent catastrophic costs. Model inputs for 7 low- and middle-income countries (Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Ghana, Mexico, Tanzania, and Yemen) were retrieved by literature review and included countries' mean patient TB-related costs, mean household income, mean cash transfers, and estimated TB-specific and TB-sensitive target populations. Analyses were completed for drug-susceptible (DS) TB-related costs in all 7 out of 7 countries, and additionally for drug-resistant (DR) TB-related costs in 1 of the 7 countries with available data. All cost data were reported in 2013 international dollars ($). The target population for TB-specific cash transfers was poor households with a confirmed TB diagnosis, and for TB-sensitive cash transfers was poor households already targeted by countries' established poverty-reduction cash transfer programme. Cash transfers offered in countries, unrelated to TB, ranged from $217 to $1,091/year/household. Before cash transfers, DS TB-related costs were catastrophic in 6 out of 7 countries. If cash transfers were provided with a TB-specific approach, alone they would be insufficient to prevent DS TB catastrophic costs in 4 out of 6 countries, and when increased enough

ATR Prohibits Replication Catastrophe by Preventing Global Exhaustion of RPA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Toledo Lazaro, Luis Ignacio; Altmeyer, Matthias; Rask, Maj-Britt

2013-01-01

origin firing generates an excess of single-stranded DNA that exhausts the nuclear pool of RPA. Partial reduction of RPA accelerated fork breakage, and forced elevation of RPA was sufficient to delay such "replication catastrophe" even in the absence of ATR activity. Conversely, unscheduled origin firing...... induced breakage of stalled forks even in cells with active ATR. Thus, ATR-mediated suppression of dormant origins shields active forks against irreversible breakage via preventing exhaustion of nuclear RPA. This study elucidates how replicating genomes avoid destabilizing DNA damage. Because cancer cells...

Repenser le risque et les catastrophes dans les régions de montagne

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenneth Hewitt

2012-03-01

vie quotidienne des peuples montagnards, les catastrophes environnementales sont bien souvent dépendantes d’autres formes sociales de risque, de vulnérabilité et d’une insécurité corollaire. Pour conclure, la marginalisation des espaces montagnards reste avant tout la conséquence du développement socio-économique de ces territoires, dont les paramètres dépendent des stratégies de développement de l’État et des acteurs métropolitains et internationaux.This chapter presents a view of risk and disaster in the mountains that finds them fully a part of public safety issues in modern states and developments, rather than separated from them. This contrasts with prevailing approaches to disaster focused on natural hazards, “unscheduled” or extreme events, and emergency preparedness; approaches strongly reinforced by mountain stereotypes. Rather, we find the legacies of social and economic histories, especially relations to down-country or metropolitan actors, are decisive in shaping contemporary “mountain realities”. Developments in transportation, resource extraction and tourism that serve state and international agendas can increase rather than reduce risks for mountain populations, and undermine pre-existing strategies to minimise environmental dangers. Above all, we see rapid urbanisation in mountains generally and the Himalaya in particular as highly implicated in exacerbating risks and creating new types of vulnerabilities. Enforced displacement, and concentration of, people in urban agglomerations, is a major part of the modern history of mountain lands that invites more careful exploration. Rapid expansion of built environments and infrastructure, without due regard to hazards and structural safety, introduce new and complex risks, while altering older equations with and to the land and sapping people’s resilience. In the lives of mountain people, environmental hazards are mostly subordinate to other, societal sources of risk and

Carbon: change of climate, but no worldwide catastrophe

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Grassl, H; Kempe, S; Spitzy, A

1981-03-21

The combustion of nearly all available coal, petroleum and natural gas supplies in the next 150 years which has been formed over 600 million years of earth's history, has resulted in man starting the largest conceivable geochemical experiment, without knowing whether and how the hence increased CO/sub 2/ content of the atmosphere is going to alter the climate. Predictions of the time change of the climate and its influence on the food basis are very hard to make. The authors working at the International Carbon Centre at Hamburg within the framework of the SCOPE/UNEP program analyze various climate models and conclude that the changing climate with or without CO/sub 2/ will cause costs in industrial countries as well as catastrophes in the development countries.

Cognitive Impairments in Fibromyalgia Syndrome: Associations With Positive and Negative Affect, Alexithymia, Pain Catastrophizing and Self-Esteem.

Science.gov (United States)

Galvez-Sánchez, Carmen M; Reyes Del Paso, Gustavo A; Duschek, Stefan

2018-01-01

Fibromyalgia syndrome (FMS) is a chronic condition characterized by widespread pain accompanied by symptoms like depression, anxiety, sleep disturbance and fatigue. In addition, affected patients frequently report cognitive disruption such as forgetfulness, concentration difficulties or mental slowness. Though cognitive deficits in FMS have been confirmed in various studies, not much is known about the mechanisms involved in their origin. This study aimed to investigate the contribution of affect-related variables to cognitive impairments in FMS. For this purpose, 67 female FMS patients and 32 healthy control subjects completed a battery of cognitive tests measuring processing speed, attention, visuospatial and verbal memory, cognitive flexibility and planning abilities. In addition, participants completed self-report questionnaires pertaining to positive and negative affect, alexithymia, pain catastrophizing and self-esteem. Clinical characteristics including pain severity, symptoms of depression and anxiety, insomnia and fatigue were also assessed. FMS patients showed markedly poorer performance than healthy controls in all of the cognitive domains assessed, in addition to greater levels of depression, anxiety, negative affect, alexithymia and pain catastrophizing, and lower self-esteem and positive affect. In exploratory correlation analysis in the FMS sample, lower cognitive performance was associated with higher pain severity, depression, anxiety, negative affect, alexithymia and pain catastrophizing, as well as lower self-esteem and positive affect. However, in regression analyses, pain, self-esteem, alexithymia, and pain catastrophizing explained the largest portion of the variance in performance. While interference effects of clinical pain in cognition have been previously described, the present findings suggest that affective factors also substantially contribute to the genesis of cognitive impairments. They support the notion that affective disturbances

Nuclear power station with nuclear reactor accommodated largely secure against catastrophes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosen, O.

1987-01-01

If the nuclear reactor is installed underground near the power station unit, then danger to the environment due to radiation contamination can be largely or nearly completely prevented by a covering of constant thickness or by a covering which can be installed by a catastrophic accident. The extinguishing of a burning reactor is also relatively simple for a reactor accommodated in a pit. The above-mentioned measures can be used individually or combined. (orig./HP) [de

Catastrophizing, depression, and pain: correlation with and influence on quality of life and health - a study of chronic whiplash-associated disorders.

Science.gov (United States)

Börsbo, Björn; Peolsson, Michael; Gerdle, Björn

2008-07-01

The aims of this study were: (i) to classify subgroups according to the degree of pain intensity, depression, and catastrophizing, and investigate distribution in a group of patients with chronic whiplash-associated disorders; and (ii) to investigate how these subgroups were distributed and inter-related multivariately with respect to consequences such as health and quality of life outcome measures. Descriptive cross-sectional study. A total of 275 consecutive chronic pain patients with whiplash-associated disorders who were referred to a university hospital. The following data were obtained by means of self-report questionnaires: pain intensity in neck and shoulders, background history, Beck Depression Inventory, the catastrophizing scale of Coping Strategy Questionnaire, Life Satisfaction Checklist, the SF-36 Health Survey, and the EuroQol. Principal component analysis was used to recognize subgroups according to the degree of pain intensity, depression, and catastrophizing. These subgroups have specific characteristics according to perceived health and quality of life, and the degree of depression appears to be the most important influencing factor. From a clinical point of view, these findings indicate that it is important to assess patients for intensity of pain, depression, and catastrophizing when planning a rehabilitation programme. Such an evaluation will help individualize therapy and intervention techniques so as to optimize the efficiency of the programme.

The Chernobyl accident, a catastrophe or an eye-opener?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baarli, J.

1989-01-01

The Chernobyl accident is reviewed as to its cause, the way it was handled locally and the consequenses from released radioactivity. It is emphasized that the exposure from the released radioactivity, as to the effective dose equivalent and the committed dose equivalent is small and comparable with the dose equivalent from natural ionizing radiation near the accident, and only a few per cent of this value at more remote distances. It is concluded that the accident probably has been one of the greatest psychological catastrophes that we so far has experienced, but not so when referring to early deaths or radiation damage directly to individuals

Mechanical behavior of a ceramic matrix composite material. M.S. Thesis Final Report

Science.gov (United States)

Grosskopf, Paul P.; Duke, John C., Jr.

1991-01-01

Monolithic ceramic materials have been used in industry for hundreds of years. These materials have proven their usefulness in many applications, yet, their potential for critical structural applications is limited. The existence of an imperfection in a monolithic ceramic on the order of several microns in size may be critical, resulting in catastrophic failure. To overcome this extreme sensitivity to small material imperfections, reinforced ceramic materials were developed. A ceramic matrix which has been reinforced with continuous fibers is not only less sensitive to microscopic flaws, but is also able to sustain significant damage without suffering catastrophic failure. A borosilicate glass reinforced with several layers of plain weave silicon carbide cloth (Nicalon) was studied. The mechanical testing which was performed included both flexural and tensile loading configurations. This testing was done not only to determine the material properties, but also to initiate a controlled amount of damage within each specimen. Several nondestructive testing techniques, including acousto-ultrasonics (AU), were performed on the specimens periodically during testing. The AU signals were monitored through the use of an IBM compatible personal computer with a high speed data acquisition board. Software was written which manipulates the AU signals in both the time and frequency domains, resulting in quantitative measures of the mechanical response of the material. The measured AU parameters are compared to both the mechanical test results and data from other nondestructive methods including ultrasonic C-scans and penetrant enhanced x ray radiography.

Phase diagram of N = 2 superconformal field theories and bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kei Ito.

1989-08-01

Phase diagrams of N=2 superconformal field theories are mapped out. It is shown that they coincide with bifurcation sets in catastrophe theory. The results are applied to the determination of renormalization group flows triggered by a combination of two or more relevant operators. (author). 13 refs, 2 figs

The Prestige Catastrophe: Political Decisions, Scientific Counsel, Missing Markets and the Need for an International Maritime Protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eduardo L. Giménez

2003-10-01

Full Text Available The Prestige tankship with 77.000 Tons of fuel suffered an accident on November 13th, 2002 at 45 miles from Galician coast under a storm. Although the ship arrived as close as 5 miles from Galiza, Spanish government refused to admit it at any harbor, but to send off-shore northwest direction. This was the first in a number of decisions that provoked the widest oil pollution ever from Exxon Valdez accident. In this paper it is shown that the political decisions first taken by Spanish government may be understood in the light of economic theory: first due to missing markets for pollution accidents both domestic and international, i.e. the non existence of any international maritime protocol; and second, because of Spanish government incompetence by neglecting the counsel of scientific institutions to assess the possible risks in the event of a catastrophe, which made the authorities to misperceive the risks involved on the decisions taken, and then hid to population information about all possible dangers. It is argued that the latter magnified the catastrophe -both ecological and social-, and the former became the government objective closer to the individual coastal population interests than to the social planner, so that the observed outcome was (obviously the well-known free-rider theoretical inefficient result found in the economic theory with externalities, i.e., the Spanish, and later the French, Atlantic coast were fully polluted. This paper has two main goals. First, at the theoretical level, to show the need to introduce the political decision analysis into the economic theory. Second, as a policy recommendation, it is an appeal for the need of an international maritime protocol, which includes scientific assessment for this kind of situations, places of refuge, and a suitable com pensation scheme from those who are benefited, so that this kind of political decisions and this type of disasters will be repeated Never More (Nunca Mais.

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fort, H [Complex Systems Group, Instituto de Fisica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Mazzeo, N [Depto. de EcologIa, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de la Republica, Igua 4225, 11400 Montevideo (Uruguay); Scheffer, M; Nes, E van, E-mail: hugo@fisica.edu.u [Wageningen Agricultural University, Aquatic Ecology and Water Quality Management Group, PO Box 47, 6700 AA Wageningen (Netherlands)

2010-09-01

Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

Catastrophic shifts in ecosystems: spatial early warnings and management procedures (Inspired in the physics of phase transitions)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fort, H; Mazzeo, N; Scheffer, M; Nes, E van

2010-01-01

Ecosystems are complex systems which can respond to gradual changes of their conditions by a sudden shift to a contrasting regime or alternative stable state (ASS). Predicting such critical points before they are reached is extremely difficult and providing early warnings is fundamental to design management protocols for ecosystems. Here we study different spatial versions of popular ecological models which are known to exhibit ASS. The spatial heterogeneity is introduced by a local parameter varying from cell to cell in a regular lattice. Transport of biomass among cells occurs by simple diffusion. We investigate whether different quantities from statistical mechanics -like the variance, the two-point correlation function and the patchiness-may serve as early warnings of catastrophic phase transitions between the ASS. In particular, we find that the patch-size distribution follows a power law when the system is close to the catastrophic transition. We also provide links between spatial and temporal indicators and analyze how the interplay between diffusion and spatial heterogeneity may affect the earliness of each of the observables. Finally, we comment on similarities and differences between these catastrophic shifts and paradigmatic thermodynamic phase transitions like the liquid-vapor change of state for a fluid like water.

Applications of a fracture mechanics model of structural reliability to the effects of seismic events on reactor piping

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harris, D.O.; Lim, E.Y.

1982-01-01

A fracture mechanics model of structural reliability is described. The model assumes that failure occurs due to the subcritical and catastrophic growth of as-fabricated defects. The material properties, stress history, number and dimensions of the initial cracks are treated as random variables. Crack growth is calculated using fracture mechanics principles. The model has been used to estimate the influence of earthquakes on the integrity of circumferential girth butt welds in the large (diameter greater than 30 in.) primary coolant system pipes of a commercial pressurized water reactor. In the absence of earthquakes, the probability of leaks and catastrophic double-ended guillotine breaks is estimated to be 10 -6 and 10 -12 per plant lifetime, respectively. These probabilities were only slightly increased by the occurrence of earthquakes. (author)

Supplemental material: afterburner for generating light (anti-)nuclei with QCD-inspired event generators in pp collisions

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

This note complements the paper titled: ``Production of deuterons, tritons, $^{3}$He nuclei and their anti-nuclei in pp collisions at $\\sqrt{s}$~=~0.9, 2.76 and 7~TeV'' with additional material related to Monte Carlo simulations necessary to compare the results with lower energy experiments. It describes a coalescence-based afterburner for QCD-inspired event generators, which allows the generation of light nuclei, hyper-nuclei and their charge conjugates in proton--proton (pp) collisions at LHC energies. The event generators with the afterburner are able to reproduce the differential cross sections of light (anti-)nuclei ($A<4)$ with the same degree of agreement as those of protons and anti-protons at the same momentum per nucleon. They also explain the transverse momentum dependence of the coalescence parameters as the result of hard scattering effects.

Social Anxiety, Pain Catastrophizing and Return-To-Work Self-Efficacy in chronic pain: a cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomtén, Johanna; Boersma, Katja; Flink, Ida; Tillfors, Maria

2016-04-01

Returning to work after periods of sick-leave due to chronic pain problems, involve a number of situations of interpersonal nature (e.g. meeting supervisors/insurance companies to adapt work setting to present functional level, receive help from colleagues, express pain, etc.). Since chronic pain has shown co-morbidity with social anxiety, it is of interest to investigate restraining factors in return to work among chronic pain sufferers from a social perspective. Catastrophizing is identified in both pain and social anxiety as a mechanism that might fuel a continuous bias in how situations are perceived (threat) and by hindering the development of functional behavior strategies. The presence of social anxiety in chronic pain patients might be seen as a stressor that limits the individuals' ability to effectively communicate pain-related needs to colleagues, and/or employers and therefore act as a hindering factor in return-to-work. Hence, the overall aim of this study was to examine the relationship between social anxiety, pain catastrophizing, and perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs to the work environment in a clinical pain population. The study employed a cross-sectional design and involved 247 individuals with chronic pain (82.3% women; M age =44 years). Measures included the Pain catastrophizing Scale, the Social Phobia Screening Questionnaire and the communication of pain-related needs-subscale of the Return-To-Work Self-efficacy Questionnaire. Analyzes were run to examine whether social anxiety moderated the relation between pain catastrophizing, and perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs while controlling for pain severity/interference and sick leave. Social anxiety and pain catastrophizing correlated positively with each other and negatively with perceived ability to communicate pain-related needs. No support was obtained for a moderating effect of social anxiety. However, social anxiety and pain interference were each

Modeling subjective well-being in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability: the role of pain control and pain catastrophizing.

Science.gov (United States)

Furrer, Angela; Michel, Gisela; Terrill, Alexandra L; Jensen, Mark P; Müller, Rachel

2017-10-23

To investigate the associations between subjective well-being and pain intensity, pain interference, and depression in individuals with physical disabilities. We hypothesized that (1) pain control and (2) pain catastrophizing mediate the effects of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, and depression. Analyses of cross-sectional data from 96 individuals diagnosed with spinal cord injury, multiple sclerosis, neuromuscular disease, or post-polio syndrome, with average pain intensity of ≥4 (0-10) on at least half the days in the past month. Two models tested study hypotheses using structural equation. Both models showed acceptable model fit. Pain catastrophizing significantly mediated the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity and pain interference, but not on depression. Pain control did not significantly mediate the effect of subjective well-being on pain intensity, pain interference, or depression. Path coefficients showed significant direct effects of subjective well-being on pain control (β = 0.39), pain catastrophizing (β = -0.61), pain interference (β = -0.48; -0.42), and depression (β = -0.75; -0.78). This study supports the potential of enhancing subjective well-being and lowering pain catastrophizing for reducing pain intensity, pain interference, and depressive symptoms in individuals with chronic pain and a physical disability. The findings indicate that true experiments to test for causal associations are warranted. Implications for rehabilitation The majority of individuals with physical disabilities report having persistent moderate-to-severe pain that may negatively limit daily activities and quality of life. The present cross-sectional study indicates that individuals who reported greater subjective well-being showed significantly lower pain intensity via the mediating effect of lower pain catastrophizing. Since sample size and respective power are low, these findings should be taken as first

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-02-01

The Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL) provides brief summaries of several hundred safeguards-related events involving nuclear material or facilities regulated by the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC). Events are described under the categories of bomb-related, intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation, vandalism, arson, firearms, radiological sabotage and miscellaneous. The information contained in the event descriptions is derived primarily from official NRC reporting channels

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL)