Lessons learnt from past Flash Floods and Debris Flow events to propose future strategies on risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Cabello, Angels; Velasco, Marc; Escaler, Isabel

2010-05-01

Floods, including flash floods and debris flow events, are one of the most important hazards in Europe regarding both economic and life loss. Moreover, changes in precipitation patterns and intensity are very likely to increase due to the observed and predicted global warming, rising the risk in areas that are already vulnerable to floods. Therefore, it is very important to carry out new strategies to improve flood protection, but it is also crucial to take into account historical data to identify high risk areas. The main objective of this paper is to show a comparative analysis of the flood risk management information compiled in four test-bed basins (Llobregat, Guadalhorce, Gardon d'Anduze and Linth basins) from three different European countries (Spain, France and Switzerland) and to identify which are the lessons learnt from their past experiences in order to propose future strategies on risk management. This work is part of the EU 7th FP project IMPRINTS which aims at reducing loss of life and economic damage through the improvement of the preparedness and the operational risk management of flash flood and debris flow (FF & DF) events. The methodology followed includes the following steps: o Specific survey on the effectivity of the implemented emergency plans and risk management procedures sent to the test-bed basin authorities that participate in the project o Analysis of the answers from the questionnaire and further research on their methodologies for risk evaluation o Compilation of available follow-up studies carried out after major flood events in the four test-bed basins analyzed o Collection of the lessons learnt through a comparative analysis of the previous information o Recommendations for future strategies on risk management based on lessons learnt and management gaps detected through the process As the Floods Directive (FD) already states, the flood risks associated to FF & DF events should be assessed through the elaboration of Flood Risk

Alcoholics' and nonalcoholics' attributions of control of future life events.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, M H; Obitz, F W

1984-03-01

Alcoholic and nonalcoholic subjects rated the degree of control that they and others possess over future life events. Alcoholics attributed less personal control over events to themselves than nonalcoholics did. Alcoholics also attributed less control to themselves than to others, whereas nonalcoholics attributed more control to themselves than to others. These differences prevailed despite the similar socioeconomic and demographic characteristics, recent life experiences and beliefs concerning the general controllability of events of both alcoholics and nonalcoholics. The attributions of alcoholics were consistent with others' notions of self-handicapping. The attributions of nonalcoholics were consistent with control motivation. Alcoholics who attributed less control to themselves than to others more frequently failed to complete treatment than did alcoholics who attributed more control to themselves.

Limit structure of future null infinity tangent-topology of the event horizon and gravitational wave tail

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tomizawa, Shinya; Siino, Masaru

2006-01-01

We investigated the relation between the behaviour of gravitational waves at late time and the limit structure of future null infinity tangent which will determine the topology of the event horizon far in the future. In the present paper, we mainly consider a spacetime with two black holes. Although in most cases, the black holes coalesce and the event horizon is topologically a single sphere far in the future, there are several possibilities that the black holes never coalesce and such exact solutions as examples. In our formulation, the tangent vector of future null infinity is, under conformal embedding, related to the number of black holes far in the future through the Poincare-Hopf theorem. Under the conformal embedding, the topology of the event horizon far in the future will be affected by the geometrical structure of the future null infinity. In this paper, we relate the behaviour of Weyl curvature to this limit behaviour of the generator vector of the future null infinity. We show if Weyl curvature decays sufficiently slowly at late time in the neighbourhood of future null infinity, two black holes never coalesce

"Heinrich events" (& sediments): A history of terminology and recommendations for future usage

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, John T.; Voelker, Antje H. L.

2018-05-01

We document the history of terms used to describe Heinrich (H-) layers and events and which mark major glaciological iceberg discharge events in the North Atlantic. We argue that the usage "Heinrich layer," "Heinrich zone", or "Heinrich event" should be restricted to only those sediments that can be ascribed to an origin from the Hudson Strait Ice Stream and the Laurentide Ice Sheet. We also argue that the commonplace understanding of these events--as dominated by massive iceberg discharges --fails to include the earlier well-documented evidence that these events were also massive meltwater events linked to deposition along the North Atlantic Mid-Ocean Channel (NAMOC) in the Labrador Sea. We make five recommendations for future usage of "Heinrich events," which include: restricting the usage to those events that can be mineralogically/geochemically linked to Hudson Strait; abandoning the term "Heinrich stadial"; and promote local terminology for "ice rafted events" that may be correlated, or not, with Hudson Strait Heinrich events based on calibrated radiocarbon dates or other appropriate chronological markers.

Candidate gravitational microlensing events for future direct lens imaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Henderson, C. B.; Gould, A.; Gaudi, B. S.; Park, H.; Han, C.; Sumi, T.; Koshimoto, N.; Udalski, A.; Tsapras, Y.; Bozza, V.; Abe, F.; Fukunaga, D.; Itow, Y.; Masuda, K.; Bennett, D. P.; Bond, I. A.; Ling, C. H.; Botzler, C. S.; Freeman, M.; Fukui, A.

2014-01-01

The mass of the lenses giving rise to Galactic microlensing events can be constrained by measuring the relative lens-source proper motion and lens flux. The flux of the lens can be separated from that of the source, companions to the source, and unrelated nearby stars with high-resolution images taken when the lens and source are spatially resolved. For typical ground-based adaptive optics (AO) or space-based observations, this requires either inordinately long time baselines or high relative proper motions. We provide a list of microlensing events toward the Galactic bulge with high relative lens-source proper motion that are therefore good candidates for constraining the lens mass with future high-resolution imaging. We investigate all events from 2004 to 2013 that display detectable finite-source effects, a feature that allows us to measure the proper motion. In total, we present 20 events with μ ≳ 8 mas yr –1 . Of these, 14 were culled from previous analyses while 6 are new, including OGLE-2004-BLG-368, MOA-2005-BLG-36, OGLE-2012-BLG-0211, OGLE-2012-BLG-0456, MOA-2012-BLG-532, and MOA-2013-BLG-029. In ≲12 yr from the time of each event the lens and source of each event will be sufficiently separated for ground-based telescopes with AO systems or space telescopes to resolve each component and further characterize the lens system. Furthermore, for the most recent events, comparison of the lens flux estimates from images taken immediately to those estimated from images taken when the lens and source are resolved can be used to empirically check the robustness of the single-epoch method currently being used to estimate lens masses for many events.

Candidate gravitational microlensing events for future direct lens imaging

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Henderson, C. B.; Gould, A.; Gaudi, B. S. [Department of Astronomy, The Ohio State University, 140 West 18th Avenue, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Park, H.; Han, C. [Department of Physics, Institute for Astrophysics, Chungbuk National University, Cheongju 371-763 (Korea, Republic of); Sumi, T.; Koshimoto, N. [Department of Earth and Space Science, Osaka University, Osaka 560-0043 (Japan); Udalski, A. [Warsaw University Observatory, Al. Ujazdowskie 4, 00-478 Warszawa (Poland); Tsapras, Y. [Las Cumbres Observatory Global Telescope Network, 6740 Cortona Drive, Suite 102, Goleta, CA 93117 (United States); Bozza, V. [Department of Physics, University of Salerno, I-84084 Fisciano (Italy); Abe, F.; Fukunaga, D.; Itow, Y.; Masuda, K. [Solar-Terrestrial Environment Laboratory, Nagoya University, Nagoya 464-8601 (Japan); Bennett, D. P. [Department of Physics, University of Notre Dame, 225 Nieuwland Science Hall, Notre Dame, IN 46556-5670 (United States); Bond, I. A.; Ling, C. H. [Institute of Information and Mathematical Sciences, Massey University, Private Bag 102-904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland 0745 (New Zealand); Botzler, C. S.; Freeman, M. [Department of Physics, University of Auckland, Private Bag 92-019, Auckland 1001 (New Zealand); Fukui, A. [School of Chemical and Physical Sciences, Victoria University, Wellington 6140 (New Zealand); Collaboration: MOA Collaboration; OGLE Collaboration; μFUN Collaboration; RoboNet Collaboration; and others

2014-10-10

The mass of the lenses giving rise to Galactic microlensing events can be constrained by measuring the relative lens-source proper motion and lens flux. The flux of the lens can be separated from that of the source, companions to the source, and unrelated nearby stars with high-resolution images taken when the lens and source are spatially resolved. For typical ground-based adaptive optics (AO) or space-based observations, this requires either inordinately long time baselines or high relative proper motions. We provide a list of microlensing events toward the Galactic bulge with high relative lens-source proper motion that are therefore good candidates for constraining the lens mass with future high-resolution imaging. We investigate all events from 2004 to 2013 that display detectable finite-source effects, a feature that allows us to measure the proper motion. In total, we present 20 events with μ ≳ 8 mas yr{sup –1}. Of these, 14 were culled from previous analyses while 6 are new, including OGLE-2004-BLG-368, MOA-2005-BLG-36, OGLE-2012-BLG-0211, OGLE-2012-BLG-0456, MOA-2012-BLG-532, and MOA-2013-BLG-029. In ≲12 yr from the time of each event the lens and source of each event will be sufficiently separated for ground-based telescopes with AO systems or space telescopes to resolve each component and further characterize the lens system. Furthermore, for the most recent events, comparison of the lens flux estimates from images taken immediately to those estimated from images taken when the lens and source are resolved can be used to empirically check the robustness of the single-epoch method currently being used to estimate lens masses for many events.

Event visualisation in ATLAS: current software technologies, future prospects and trends

CERN Document Server

Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; The ATLAS collaboration; Moyse, Edward

2016-01-01

At the beginning, HEP experiments made use of photographical images both to record and store experimental data and to illustrate their findings. Then the experiments evolved and needed to find ways to visualize their data. With the availability of computer graphics, software packages to display event data and the detector geometry started to be developed. Here a brief history of event displays is presented, with an overview of the different event display tools used today in HEP experiments in general, and in the LHC experiments in particular. Then the case of the ATLAS experiment is considered in more detail and two widely used event display packages are presented, Atlantis and VP1, focusing on the software technologies they employ, as well as their strengths, differences and their usage in the experiment: from physics analysis to detector development, and from online monitoring to outreach and communication. Future development plans and improvements in the ATLAS event display packages will also be discussed,...

The future of event-level information repositories, indexing, and selection in ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Barberis, D; The ATLAS collaboration; Dimitrov, G; Doherty, T; Gallas, E; Hrivnac, J; Malon, D; Nairz, A; Nowak, M; Quilty, D; Sorokoletov, R; Van Gemmeren, P; Zhang, Q

2014-01-01

ATLAS maintains a rich corpus of event-by-event information that provides a global view of virtually all of the billions of events the collaboration has seen or simulated, along with sufficient auxiliary information to navigate to and retrieve data for any event at any production processing stage. This unique resource has been employed for a range of purposes, from monitoring, statistics, anomaly detection, and integrity checking to event picking, subset selection, and sample extraction. Recent years of data-taking provide a foundation for assessment of how this resource has and has not been used in practice, of the uses for which it should be optimized, of how it should be deployed and provisioned for scalability to future data volumes, and of the areas in which enhancements to functionality would be most valuable. \

Episodic and semantic components of autobiographical memories and imagined future events in post-traumatic stress disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Adam D; Addis, Donna Rose; Romano, Tracy A; Marmar, Charles R; Bryant, Richard A; Hirst, William; Schacter, Daniel L

2014-01-01

Individuals with post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) tend to retrieve autobiographical memories with less episodic specificity, referred to as overgeneralised autobiographical memory. In line with evidence that autobiographical memory overlaps with one's capacity to imagine the future, recent work has also shown that individuals with PTSD also imagine themselves in the future with less episodic specificity. To date most studies quantify episodic specificity by the presence of a distinct event. However, this method does not distinguish between the numbers of internal (episodic) and external (semantic) details, which can provide additional insights into remembering the past and imagining the future. This study employed the Autobiographical Interview (AI) coding scheme to the autobiographical memory and imagined future event narratives generated by combat veterans with and without PTSD. Responses were coded for the number of internal and external details. Compared to combat veterans without PTSD, those with PTSD generated more external than internal details when recalling past or imagining future events, and fewer internal details were associated with greater symptom severity. The potential mechanisms underlying these bidirectional deficits and clinical implications are discussed.

Characteristics and Future Changes of Great Mississippi Flood Events in a Global Coupled Climate Model

Science.gov (United States)

van der Wiel, K.; Kapnick, S. B.; Vecchi, G.; Smith, J. A.

2017-12-01

The Mississippi-Missouri river catchment houses millions of people and much of the U.S. national agricultural production. Severe flooding events can therefore have large negative societal, natural and economic impacts. GFDL FLOR, a global coupled climate model (atmosphere, ocean, land, sea ice with integrated river routing module) is used to investigate the characteristics of great Mississippi floods with an average return period of 100 years. Model experiments under pre-industrial greenhouse gas forcing were conducted for 3400 years, such that the most extreme flooding events were explicitly modeled and the land and/or atmospheric causes could be investigated. It is shown that melt of snow pack and frozen sub-surface water in the Missouri and Upper Mississippi basins prime the river system, subsequently sensitizing it to above average precipitation in the Ohio and Tennessee basins. The months preceding the greatest flooding events are above average wet, leading to moist sub-surface conditions. Anomalous melt depends on the availability of frozen water in the catchment, therefore anomalous amounts of sub-surface frozen water and anomalous large snow pack in winter (Nov-Feb) make the river system susceptible for these great flooding events in spring (Feb-Apr). An additional experiment of 1200 years under transient greenhouse gas forcing (RCP4.5, 5 members) was done to investigate potential future change in flood risk. Based on a peak-over-threshold method, it is found that the number of great flooding events decreases in a warmer future. This decrease coincides with decreasing occurrence of large melt events, but is despite increasing numbers of large precipitation events. Though the model results indicate a decreasing risk for the greatest flooding events, the predictability of events might decrease in a warmer future given the changing characters of melt and precipitation.

The future of event-level information repositories, indexing, and selection in ATLAS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barberis, D; Cranshaw, J; Malon, D; Gemmeren, P Van; Zhang, Q; Dimitrov, G; Nairz, A; Sorokoletov, R; Doherty, T; Quilty, D; Gallas, E J; Hrivnac, J; Nowak, M

2014-01-01

ATLAS maintains a rich corpus of event-by-event information that provides a global view of the billions of events the collaboration has measured or simulated, along with sufficient auxiliary information to navigate to and retrieve data for any event at any production processing stage. This unique resource has been employed for a range of purposes, from monitoring, statistics, anomaly detection, and integrity checking, to event picking, subset selection, and sample extraction. Recent years of data-taking provide a foundation for assessment of how this resource has and has not been used in practice, of the uses for which it should be optimized, of how it should be deployed and provisioned for scalability to future data volumes, and of the areas in which enhancements to functionality would be most valuable. This paper describes how ATLAS event-level information repositories and selection infrastructure are evolving in light of this experience, and in view of their expected roles both in wide-area event delivery services and in an evolving ATLAS analysis model in which the importance of efficient selective access to data can only grow.

Positive future orientation as a mediator between traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Jintao; Zhao, Guoxiang; Li, Xiaoming; Hong, Yan; Fang, Xiaoyi; Barnett, Douglas; Lin, Xiuyun; Zhao, Junfeng; Zhang, Liying

2009-12-01

The current study was designed to explore the effect of future orientation in mediating the relationship between traumatic events and mental health in children affected by HIV/AIDS in rural China. Cross-sectional data were collected from 1221 children affected by HIV/AIDS (755 AIDS orphans and 466 vulnerable children). Future orientation among children was measured using three indicators (future expectation, hopefulness toward the future, and perceived control over the future). Measures of mental health consisted of depression, loneliness, and self-esteem. Children's experience of any traumatic events was measured using a modified version of the Life Incidence of Traumatic Events-Student Form. Mediation analysis was conducted using structural equation modeling (SEM) methods. Among the children surveyed, most of the traumatic indicators were negatively associated with future expectation, hopefulness, perceived control, and self-esteem, and positively associated with depression and loneliness. The SEM of mediation analysis demonstrated an adequate fit. Future orientation fully mediated the relationship between traumatic events and mental health and accounted for 67.9% of the total effect of traumatic events on mental health. Results of this study support the positive effect of future expectation in mediating the relationship between traumatic events and mental health among children affected by HIV/AIDS in China. Future mental health promotion and intervention efforts targeting children affected by HIV/AIDS should include components that can mitigate the negative impact of traumatic events on their lives. These components may aim to develop children's positive future expectations, increase their hopefulness toward the future, and improve their perceived control over the future.

Future versus present: time perspective and pupillary response in a relatedness judgment task investigating temporal event knowledge.

Science.gov (United States)

Nowack, Kati; Milfont, Taciano L; van der Meer, Elke

2013-02-01

Mental representations of events contain many components such as typical agents, instruments, objects as well as a temporal dimension that is directed towards the future. While the role of temporal orientation (chronological, reverse) in event knowledge has been demonstrated by numerous studies, little is known about the influence of time perspective (present or future) as source of individual differences affecting event knowledge. The present study combined behavioral data with task-evoked pupil dilation to examine the impact of time perspective on cognitive resource allocation. In a relatedness judgment task, everyday events like raining were paired with an object feature like wet. Chronological items were processed more easily than reverse items regardless of time perspective. When more automatic processes were applied, greater scores on future time perspective were associated with lower error rates for chronological items. This suggests that a match between a strong focus on future consequences and items with a temporal orientation directed toward the future serves to enhance responding accuracy. Indexed by pupillary data, future-oriented participants invested more cognitive resources while outperforming present-oriented participants in reaction times across all conditions. This result was supported by a principal component analysis on the pupil data, which demonstrated the same impact of time perspective on the factor associated with more general aspects of cognitive effort. These findings suggest that future time perspective may be linked to a more general cognitive performance characteristic that improves overall task performance. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Penetration of the renewable sources of energy in Mexico: group of approach on possible carrying future events for the renewable energies (Annexe 12 in 'A vision of year 2030 on the use of the renewable energies in Mexico'); Penetracion de las fuentes renovables de energia en Mexico: grupo de enfoque sobre posibles eventos portadores de futuro para las energias renovables (Anexo 12 en 'Una vision al 2030 de la utilizacion de las energias renovables en Mexico')

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pernudi, Montserrat; Alonso C, Antonio [Analitica Consultores SA de CV, Mexico DF (Mexico)

2005-08-15

This report corresponds to the results obtained in the group of consultation to experts on possible events or carrying future events, that is to say, events that in happening could be determinant for the later evolution of the renewable energies in Mexico. Conducted on May 26, 2005 in Mexico City with a small group of approach, the objectives of the meeting were to define possible events or relevant carrying future events for the evolution of the renewable energies in Mexico between years 2005 and 2030 and, to explore the most relevant components of possible scenarios on the future evolution (2005-2030) of the renewable energies in Mexico. [Spanish] Este informe corresponde a los resultados obtenidos en el grupo de consulta a expertos sobre posibles eventos o sucesos portadores de futuro, esto es, eventos que de ocurrir podrian ser determinantes para la evolucion posterior de las energias renovables en Mexico, realizado el 26 de mayo de 2005 en la ciudad de Mexico con un pequeno grupo de enfoque. Los objetivos de la reunion: definir posibles eventos o sucesos portadores de futuro relevantes para la evolucion de las energias renovables en Mexico entre los anos 2005 y 2030 y, explorar los componentes mas relevantes de posibles escenarios sobre la evolucion futura (2005-2030) de las energias renovables en Mexico.

Physical Responses of Convective Heavy Rainfall to Future Warming Condition: Case Study of the Hiroshima Event

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kenshi Hibino

2018-04-01

Full Text Available An extreme precipitation event happened at Hiroshima in 2014. Over 200 mm of total rainfall was observed on the night of August 19th, which caused floods and many landslides. The rainfall event was estimated to be a rare event happening once in approximately 30 years. The physical response of this event to the change of the future atmospheric condition, which includes a temperature increase on average and convective stability change, is investigated in the present study using a 27-member ensemble experiment and pseudo global warming downscaling method. The experiment is integrated using the Japan Meteorological Research Institute non-hydrostatic regional climate model. A very high-resolution horizontal grid, 500 m, is used to reproduce dense cumulonimbus cloud formation causing heavy rainfall in the model. The future climate condition determined by a higher greenhouse gas concentration is prescribed to the model, in which the surface air temperature globally averaged is 4 K warmer than that in the preindustrial era. The total amounts of precipitation around the Hiroshima area in the future experiments are closer to or slightly lower than in the current experiments in spite of the increase in water vapor due to the atmospheric warming. The effect of the water vapor increase on extreme precipitation is found to be canceled out by the suppression of convection due to the thermal stability enhancement. The fact that future extreme precipitation like the Hiroshima event is not intensified is in contrast to the well-known result that extreme rainfall tends to be intensified in the future. The results in the present study imply that the response of extreme precipitation to global warming differs for each rainfall phenomenon.

The DPRK event of May 25, 2009: an analysis carried out at INGV from a multidisciplinary perspective

Science.gov (United States)

Console, R.; Carluccio, R.; Chiappini, M.; Chiappini, S.; D'Ajello Caracciolo, F.; Damiani, K.; Giuntini, A.; Materni, V.; Pignatelli, A.

2009-12-01

On the early morning of May 25, 2009 INGV detected an event located in a predefined area of interest, including the DPRK. Such detection triggered the request of raw data from the seismological International Agencies that operate global seismic networks. Around 6:00 UTC of the same morning, the INGV staff started the standard procedures of seismological analysis on the data collected from such Agencies, in order to locate, identify and characterize the event from a National perspective. At the same time, the DPRK Government announced the conduction of an underground nuclear test in their territory, confirming the suspected explosive nature of the seismic event. The seismological analysis carried out at the INGV included hypocentral location, mb and Ms computation, application of identification criteria developed at the INGV, and estimation of a possible range for the yield. Here the basic parameters for the event, as obtained at the INGV are reported: Origin time: 2009/05/25 00:54:43.039 Latitude: 41.286 deg. N +/- 12.214 km. Longitude: 129.174 deg. E +/- 14.767 km. Depth: 0 (fixed by the analyst) mb: 4.5 +/- 0.1; Ms: 3.2 +/- 0.2 The criteria adopted at the INGV for event screening led us to classify this event as an explosion with high probability. To reach this conclusion, a rigorous statistical method known as “Discriminant Analysis” has been applied. Particular care has been devoted to the comparison with the nuclear test announced by the DPRK on 9 October 2006. The two locations appear very close to each other (within a distance of the order of 10 km), with the respective error ellipses nearly totally overlapping (the error ellipse area of the recent event is smaller due to the better quality and more numerous recordings). A more accurate relative location has been carried out by the application of the algorithm of DDJHD specifically developed at the INGV for these purposes. In this case the epicentral distance drops to less than 3 km, with an error of 3

Neural correlates of self-appraisals in the near and distant future: an event-related potential study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yangmei Luo

Full Text Available To investigate perceptual and neural correlates of future self-appraisals as a function of temporal distance, event-related potentials (ERPs were recorded while participants (11 women, eight men made judgments about the applicability of trait adjectives to their near future selves (i.e., one month from now and their distant future selves (i.e., three years from now. Behavioral results indicated people used fewer positive adjectives, more negative adjectives, recalled more specific events coming to mind and felt more psychologically connected to the near future self than the distant future self. Electrophysiological results demonstrated that negative trait adjectives elicited more positive ERP deflections than did positive trait adjectives in the interval between 550 and 800 ms (late positive component within the near future self condition. However, within the same interval, there were no significant differences between negative and positive traits adjectives in the distant future self condition. The results suggest that negative emotional processing in future self-appraisals is modulated by temporal distance, consistent with predictions of construal level theory.

17 CFR 21.02 - Special calls for information on open contracts in accounts carried or introduced by futures...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... furnish to the Commission the following information concerning accounts of traders owning or controlling... 17 Commodity and Securities Exchanges 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Special calls for information on open contracts in accounts carried or introduced by futures commission merchants, clearing members...

Cultural Differences in Young Adults' Perceptions of the Probability of Future Family Life Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Speirs, Calandra; Huang, Vivian; Konnert, Candace

2017-09-01

Most young adults are exposed to family caregiving; however, little is known about their perceptions of their future caregiving activities such as the probability of becoming a caregiver for their parents or providing assistance in relocating to a nursing home. This study examined the perceived probability of these events among 182 young adults and the following predictors of their probability ratings: gender, ethnicity, work or volunteer experience, experiences with caregiving and nursing homes, expectations about these transitions, and filial piety. Results indicated that Asian or South Asian participants rated the probability of being a caregiver as significantly higher than Caucasian participants, and the probability of placing a parent in a nursing home as significantly lower. Filial piety was the strongest predictor of the probability of these life events, and it mediated the relationship between ethnicity and probability ratings. These findings indicate the significant role of filial piety in shaping perceptions of future life events.

The Effects of Spatial Contextual Familiarity on Remembered Scenes, Episodic Memories, and Imagined Future Events

Science.gov (United States)

Robin, Jessica; Moscovitch, Morris

2014-01-01

Several recent studies have explored the effect of contextual familiarity on remembered and imagined events. The aim of this study was to examine the extent of this effect by comparing the effect of cuing spatial memories, episodic memories, and imagined future events with spatial contextual cues of varying levels of familiarity. We used…

Monitoring of the future strong Vrancea events by using the CN formal earthquake prediction algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moldoveanu, C.L.; Novikova, O.V.; Panza, G.F.; Radulian, M.

2003-06-01

The preparation process of the strong subcrustal events originating in Vrancea region, Romania, is monitored using an intermediate-term medium-range earthquake prediction method - the CN algorithm (Keilis-Borok and Rotwain, 1990). We present the results of the monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes for the time interval from January 1, 1994 (1994.1.1), to January 1, 2003 (2003.1.1) using the updated catalogue of the Romanian local network. The database considered for the CN monitoring of the preparation of future strong earthquakes in Vrancea covers the period from 1966.3.1 to 2003.1.1 and the geographical rectangle 44.8 deg - 48.4 deg N, 25.0 deg - 28.0 deg E. The algorithm correctly identifies, by retrospective prediction, the TJPs for all the three strong earthquakes (Mo=6.4) that occurred in Vrancea during this period. The cumulated duration of the TIPs represents 26.5% of the total period of time considered (1966.3.1-2003.1.1). The monitoring of current seismicity using the algorithm CN has been carried out since 1994. No strong earthquakes occurred from 1994.1.1 to 2003.1.1 but the CN declared an extended false alarm from 1999.5.1 to 2000.11.1. No alarm has currently been declared in the region (on January 1, 2003), as can be seen from the TJPs diagram shown. (author)

The future of gas and major current events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2007-01-01

Natural gas market has been completely open in France since July 1, 2007. Long-time operators like Gaz de France (GdF) and local distribution companies, have adapted to the new constraints mainly by meeting the requirement to separate the infrastructure business from the commercial activities. Newcomers, mostly well-known foreign companies, have joined the traditional operators. Overall, the French market is working well, rules have been implemented and are being adequately enforced. To support these changes, the French gas industry needs a recognised professional association. The French gas association (AFG) fills this role, and promotes the image of gas through various events, congresses and meetings. This paper expresses the AFG's position concerning the future of gas in relation to major current events: AFG estimates that gas should play a full role in the energy spectrum based on its unique properties and wishes that public authorities take into consideration all features of all energy sources in their strategies, in particular CO 2 emissions all along the energy processes. AFG requests public authorities to set up fair, motivative and stable operating rules at least to the medium term. AFG would like the Energy regulating committee (CRE) to set an investment return rate that gives investors a sufficient incentive without penalizing the gas consumer. The AFG requests also that the administrative procedures for investment are simplified, with clarified rules and a fast arbitration for not delaying the opening of infrastructures. (J.S.)

Derivation of working levels for animal feedstuffs for use in the event of a future nuclear accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nisbet, A.; Woodman, R.; Brown, J.

1998-04-01

In the event of a future nuclear accident, European Council Food Intervention Levels (CFILs) would be legally binding for foodstuffs marketed in the UK. Practical guidance has been developed on the activity concentrations of radiocaesium and radiostrontium in animal feedstuffs that would give rise to concentrations equivalent to the relevant CFIL in the final animal product. The animals considered were dairy and beef cattle, lambs, pigs, broiler chickens and laying hens. Typical diets have been derived for each animal. The NRPB foodchain model FARMLAND has been used to predict activity concentrations in different feedstuffs for accidents occurring at different times of the year. The predicted concentrations were combined with the data on dietary composition, information on feed-to-product transfer and the relevant CFIL to estimate the corresponding Working levels in Animal Feedstuffs (WAFs). The calculations were carried out using a dedicated software system called SILAFOD. This flexible system can be used to carry out more specific assessments. A handbook that accompanies this report contains detailed information on animal diets, contributions from various feedstuffs to intakes of activity and the corresponding WAFs. The early phase after an accident and the longer-term phase are both considered. The work received partial financial support from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food, Radiological Safety and Nutrition Division. (author)

Experiencing Past and Future Personal Events: Functional Neuroimaging Evidence on the Neural Bases of Mental Time Travel

Science.gov (United States)

Botzung, Anne; Denkova, Ekaterina; Manning, Lilianne

2008-01-01

Functional MRI was used in healthy subjects to investigate the existence of common neural structures supporting re-experiencing the past and pre-experiencing the future. Past and future events evocation appears to involve highly similar patterns of brain activation including, in particular, the medial prefrontal cortex, posterior regions and the…

Changes in record-breaking temperature events in China and projections for the future

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Hanqing; Liu, Chun; Lu, Yanyu; He, Dongyan; Tian, Hong

2017-06-01

As global warming intensifies, more record-breaking (RB) temperature events are reported in many places around the world where temperatures are higher than ever before http://cn.bing.com/dict/search?q=.&FORM=BDVSP6&mkt=zh-cn. The RB temperatures have caused severe impacts on ecosystems and human society. Here, we address changes in RB temperature events occurring over China in the past (1961-2014) as well as future projections (2006-2100) using observational data and the newly available simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). The number of RB events has a significant multi-decadal variability in China, and the intensity expresses a strong decrease from 1961 to 2014. However, more frequent RB events occurred in mid-eastern and northeastern China over last 30 years (1981-2010). Comparisons with observational data indicate multi-model ensemble (MME) simulations from the CMIP5 model perform well in simulating RB events for the historical run period (1961-2005). CMIP5 MME shows a relatively larger uncertainty for the change in intensity. From 2051 to 2100, fewer RB events are projected to occur in most parts of China according to RCP 2.6 scenarios. Over the longer period from 2006 to 2100, a remarkable increase is expected for the entire country according to RCP 8.5 scenarios and the maximum numbers of RB events increase by approximately 600 per year at end of twenty-first century.

Hour Glass Half-Full or Half-Empty? Future Time Perspective and Preoccupation with Negative Events Across the Life Span

Science.gov (United States)

Strough, JoNell; de Bruin, Wändi Bruine; Parker, Andrew M.; Lemaster, Philip; Pichayayothin, Nipat; Delaney, Rebecca

2016-01-01

According to socioemotional selectivity theory, older adults' emotional well-being stems from having limited future time perspective that motivates them to maximize well-being in the “here and now.” Presumably, then, older adults' time horizons are associated with emotional competencies that boost positive affect and dampen negative affect, but little research has addressed this. Using a US national adult life-span sample (N= 3,933, 18-93 yrs), we found that a two-factor model of future time perspective (focus on future opportunities; focus on limited time) fit the data better than a one-factor model. Through middle age, people perceived the life-span hourglass as half full—they focused more on future opportunities than limited time. Around age 60, the balance changed to increasingly perceiving the life-span hourglass as half empty—they focused less on future opportunities and more on limited time. This pattern held even after accounting for perceived health, self-reported decision-making ability, and retirement status. At all ages, women's time horizons focused more on future opportunities compared to men's, and men's focused more on limited time. Focusing on future opportunities was associated with reporting less preoccupation with negative events, whereas focusing on limited time was associated with reporting more preoccupation. Older adults reported less preoccupation with negative events and this association was stronger after controlling for their perceptions of limited time and fewer future opportunities, suggesting that other pathways may explain older adults' reports of their ability to disengage from negative events. Insights gained and questions raised by measuring future time perspective as two dimensions are discussed. PMID:27267222

Hour glass half full or half empty? Future time perspective and preoccupation with negative events across the life span.

Science.gov (United States)

Strough, JoNell; Bruine de Bruin, Wändi; Parker, Andrew M; Lemaster, Philip; Pichayayothin, Nipat; Delaney, Rebecca

2016-09-01

According to socioemotional selectivity theory, older adults' emotional well-being stems from having a limited future time perspective that motivates them to maximize well-being in the "here and now." Presumably, then, older adults' time horizons are associated with emotional competencies that boost positive affect and dampen negative affect, but little research has addressed this. Using a U.S. adult life-span sample (N = 3,933; 18-93 years), we found that a 2-factor model of future time perspective (future opportunities; limited time) fit the data better than a 1-factor model. Through middle age, people perceived the life-span hourglass as half full-they focused more on future opportunities than limited time. Around Age 60, the balance changed to increasingly perceiving the life-span hourglass as half empty-they focused less on future opportunities and more on limited time, even after accounting for perceived health, self-reported decision-making ability, and retirement status. At all ages, women's time horizons focused more on future opportunities compared with men's, and men's focused more on limited time. Focusing on future opportunities was associated with reporting less preoccupation with negative events, whereas focusing on limited time was associated with reporting more preoccupation. Older adults reported less preoccupation with negative events, and this association was stronger after controlling for their perceptions of limited time and fewer future opportunities, suggesting that other pathways may explain older adults' reports of their ability to disengage from negative events. Insights gained and questions raised by measuring future time perspective as 2 dimensions are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Technical Meeting on Impact of Fukushima Event on Current and Future Fast Reactor Designs. Presentations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

The overall purpose of the Technical Meeting was to recognize and analyse the implications of the accident occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station on current and future fast neutron systems design and operation. The aim was to provide a global forum for discussing the principal lessons learned from this event, and thus to review safety principles and characteristics of existing and future fast neutron concepts, especially in relation with extreme natural events which potentially may lead to severe accident scenarios. The participants also presented and discussed innovative technical solutions, design features and countermeasures for design extension conditions - including earthquakes, tsunami and other extreme natural hazards - which can enhance the safety level of existing and future fast neutron systems. Furthermore, the meeting gave the opportunity to present advanced methods for the evaluation of the robustness of plants against design extension conditions. Another important goal of this TM was to discuss how to harmonize safety approaches and goals for next generation’s fast reactors. Finally, the meeting was intended to identify areas where further research and development in nuclear safety, technology and engineering in the light of the Fukushima accident are needed. In the frame of the implementation of its Nuclear Safety Action Plan endorsed by all Member States, the IAEA will consider these areas as potential technical topics for new Coordinated Research Projects, to be launched in the near future

Recent and future warm extreme events and high-mountain slope stability.

Science.gov (United States)

Huggel, C; Salzmann, N; Allen, S; Caplan-Auerbach, J; Fischer, L; Haeberli, W; Larsen, C; Schneider, D; Wessels, R

2010-05-28

The number of large slope failures in some high-mountain regions such as the European Alps has increased during the past two to three decades. There is concern that recent climate change is driving this increase in slope failures, thus possibly further exacerbating the hazard in the future. Although the effects of a gradual temperature rise on glaciers and permafrost have been extensively studied, the impacts of short-term, unusually warm temperature increases on slope stability in high mountains remain largely unexplored. We describe several large slope failures in rock and ice in recent years in Alaska, New Zealand and the European Alps, and analyse weather patterns in the days and weeks before the failures. Although we did not find one general temperature pattern, all the failures were preceded by unusually warm periods; some happened immediately after temperatures suddenly dropped to freezing. We assessed the frequency of warm extremes in the future by analysing eight regional climate models from the recently completed European Union programme ENSEMBLES for the central Swiss Alps. The models show an increase in the higher frequency of high-temperature events for the period 2001-2050 compared with a 1951-2000 reference period. Warm events lasting 5, 10 and 30 days are projected to increase by about 1.5-4 times by 2050 and in some models by up to 10 times. Warm extremes can trigger large landslides in temperature-sensitive high mountains by enhancing the production of water by melt of snow and ice, and by rapid thaw. Although these processes reduce slope strength, they must be considered within the local geological, glaciological and topographic context of a slope.

Hypertension in Pregnancy and Future Cardiovascular Event Risk in Siblings

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, Stephen T.; Mosley, Thomas H.; Kardia, Sharon L.R.; Hanis, Craig L.; Milic, Natasa M.; Garovic, Vesna D.

2016-01-01

Hypertension in pregnancy is a risk factor for future hypertension and cardiovascular disease. This may reflect an underlying familial predisposition or persistent damage caused by the hypertensive pregnancy. We sought to isolate the effect of hypertension in pregnancy by comparing the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease in women who had hypertension in pregnancy and their sisters who did not using the dataset from the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy study, which examined the genetics of hypertension in white, black, and Hispanic siblings. This analysis included all sibships with at least one parous woman and at least one other sibling. After gathering demographic and pregnancy data, BP and serum analytes were measured. Disease-free survival was examined using Kaplan–Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression. Compared with their sisters who did not have hypertension in pregnancy, women who had hypertension in pregnancy were more likely to develop new onset hypertension later in life, after adjusting for body mass index and diabetes (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.27–2.42). A sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy was also associated with an increased risk of hypertension in brothers and unaffected sisters, whereas an increased risk of cardiovascular events was observed in brothers only. These results suggest familial factors contribute to the increased risk of future hypertension in women who had hypertension in pregnancy. Further studies are needed to clarify the potential role of nonfamilial factors. Furthermore, a sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy may be a novel familial risk factor for future hypertension. PMID:26315531

Climate-change driven increase in high intensity rainfall events: Analysis of development in the last decades and towards an extrapolation of future progression

Science.gov (United States)

Müller, Eva; Pfister, Angela; Gerd, Büger; Maik, Heistermann; Bronstert, Axel

2015-04-01

Hydrological extreme events can be triggered by rainfall on different spatiotemporal scales: river floods are typically caused by event durations of between hours and days, while urban flash floods as well as soil erosion or contaminant transport rather result from storms events of very short duration (minutes). Still, the analysis of climate change impacts on rainfall-induced extreme events is usually carried out using daily precipitation data at best. Trend analyses of extreme rainfall at sub-daily or even sub-hourly time scales are rare. In this contribution two lines of research are combined: first, we analyse sub-hourly rainfall data for several decades in three European regions.Second, we investigate the scaling behaviour of heavy short-term precipitation with temperature, i.e. the dependence of high intensity rainfall on the atmospheric temperature at that particular time and location. The trend analysis of high-resolution rainfall data shows for the first time that the frequency of short and intensive storm events in the temperate lowland regions in Germany has increased by up to 0.5 events per year over the last decades. I.e. this trend suggests that the occurrence of these types of storms have multiplied over only a few decades. Parallel to the changes in the rainfall regime, increases in the annual and seasonal average temperature and changes in the occurrence of circulation patterns responsible for the generation of high-intensity storms have been found. The analysis of temporally highly resolved rainfall records from three European regions further indicates that extreme precipitation events are more intense with warmer temperatures during the rainfall event. These observations follow partly the Clausius-Clapeyron relation. Based on this relation one may derive a general rule of maximum rainfall intensity associated to the event temperature, roughly following the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) relation. This rule might be used for scenarios of future maximum

Hypertension in Pregnancy and Future Cardiovascular Event Risk in Siblings.

Science.gov (United States)

Weissgerber, Tracey L; Turner, Stephen T; Mosley, Thomas H; Kardia, Sharon L R; Hanis, Craig L; Milic, Natasa M; Garovic, Vesna D

2016-03-01

Hypertension in pregnancy is a risk factor for future hypertension and cardiovascular disease. This may reflect an underlying familial predisposition or persistent damage caused by the hypertensive pregnancy. We sought to isolate the effect of hypertension in pregnancy by comparing the risk of hypertension and cardiovascular disease in women who had hypertension in pregnancy and their sisters who did not using the dataset from the Genetic Epidemiology Network of Arteriopathy study, which examined the genetics of hypertension in white, black, and Hispanic siblings. This analysis included all sibships with at least one parous woman and at least one other sibling. After gathering demographic and pregnancy data, BP and serum analytes were measured. Disease-free survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazards regression. Compared with their sisters who did not have hypertension in pregnancy, women who had hypertension in pregnancy were more likely to develop new onset hypertension later in life, after adjusting for body mass index and diabetes (hazard ratio 1.75, 95% confidence interval 1.27-2.42). A sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy was also associated with an increased risk of hypertension in brothers and unaffected sisters, whereas an increased risk of cardiovascular events was observed in brothers only. These results suggest familial factors contribute to the increased risk of future hypertension in women who had hypertension in pregnancy. Further studies are needed to clarify the potential role of nonfamilial factors. Furthermore, a sibling history of hypertension in pregnancy may be a novel familial risk factor for future hypertension. Copyright © 2016 by the American Society of Nephrology.

Technical Meeting on Impact of Fukushima Event on Current and Future Fast Reactor Designs. Working Material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

The overall purpose of the Technical Meeting was to recognize and analyse the implications of the accident occurred at the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Station on current and future fast neutron systems design and operation. The aim was to provide a global forum for discussing the principal lessons learned from this event, and thus to review safety principles and characteristics of existing and future fast neutron concepts, especially in relation with extreme natural events which potentially may lead to severe accident scenarios. The participants also presented and discussed innovative technical solutions, design features and countermeasures for design extension conditions - including earthquakes, tsunami and other extreme natural hazards - which can enhance the safety level of existing and future fast neutron systems. Furthermore, the meeting gave the opportunity to present advanced methods for the evaluation of the robustness of plants against design extension conditions. Another important goal of this TM was to discuss how to harmonize safety approaches and goals for next generation’s fast reactors. Finally, the meeting was intended to identify areas where further research and development in nuclear safety, technology and engineering in the light of the Fukushima accident are needed. In the frame of the implementation of its Nuclear Safety Action Plan endorsed by all Member States, the IAEA will consider these areas as potential technical topics for new Coordinated Research Projects, to be launched in the near future

The current and future impacts of the 2007-2009 economic recession on the festival and event industry

OpenAIRE

Goldblatt, Joe J; Lee, Seung-won

2012-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to analyze and understand the impact of the global financial\\ud crisis during 2007-2009. Furthermore, the paper seeks to identiy critical impacts upon the festival and\\ud event industry as a result of this crisis and to identify strategies to help members of the industry\\ud positively advance in the future.\\ud Design/methodology/approach – Festival and event industry professionals were surveyed\\ud electronically about their business performance during th...

The Role of Working Memory in the Probabilistic Inference of Future Sensory Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Cashdollar, Nathan; Ruhnau, Philipp; Weisz, Nathan; Hasson, Uri

2017-05-01

The ability to represent the emerging regularity of sensory information from the external environment has been thought to allow one to probabilistically infer future sensory occurrences and thus optimize behavior. However, the underlying neural implementation of this process is still not comprehensively understood. Through a convergence of behavioral and neurophysiological evidence, we establish that the probabilistic inference of future events is critically linked to people's ability to maintain the recent past in working memory. Magnetoencephalography recordings demonstrated that when visual stimuli occurring over an extended time series had a greater statistical regularity, individuals with higher working-memory capacity (WMC) displayed enhanced slow-wave neural oscillations in the θ frequency band (4-8 Hz.) prior to, but not during stimulus appearance. This prestimulus neural activity was specifically linked to contexts where information could be anticipated and influenced the preferential sensory processing for this visual information after its appearance. A separate behavioral study demonstrated that this process intrinsically emerges during continuous perception and underpins a realistic advantage for efficient behavioral responses. In this way, WMC optimizes the anticipation of higher level semantic concepts expected to occur in the near future. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Future cardiac events in patients with ischemic ECG changes during adenosine infusion as a myocardial stress agent and normal cardiac scan.

Science.gov (United States)

Amer, Hamid; Niaz, Khalid; Hatazawa, Jun; Gasmelseed, Ahmed; Samiri, Hussain Al; Al Othman, Maram; Hammad, Mai Al

2017-11-01

We sought to determine the prognostic importance of adenosine-induced ischemic ECG changes in patients with normal single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion images (MPI). We carried out a retrospective analysis of 765 patients undergoing adenosine MPI between January 2013 and January 2015. Patients with baseline ECG abnormalities and/or abnormal scan were excluded. Overall, 67 (8.7%) patients had ischemic ECG changes during adenosine infusion in the form of ST depression of 1 mm or more. Of these, 29 [43% (3.8% of all patients)] had normal MPI (positive ECG group). An age-matched and sex-matched group of 108 patients with normal MPI without ECG changes served as control participants (negative ECG group). During a mean follow-up duration of 33.3±6.1 months, patients in the positive ECG group did not have significantly more adverse cardiac events than those in the negative ECG group. One (0.9%) patient in the negative ECG group had a nonfatal myocardial infarction (0.7% annual event rate after a negative MPI). Also in this group, two (1.8%) patients admitted with a diagnosis of CAD where they have been ruled out by angiography. A fourth case in this, in the negative ECG group, was admitted because of heart failure that proved to be secondary to a pulmonary cause and not CAD. A case only in the positive ECG group was admitted as a CAD that was ruled out by coronary angiography. Patients with normal myocardial perfusion scintigraphy in whom ST-segment depression develops during adenosine stress test appear to have no increased risk for future cardiac events compared with similar patients without ECG evidence of ischemia.

How Repeated Time To Event (RTTE) modelling of opioid requests after surgery may improve future post-operative pain management

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juul, Rasmus Vestergaard; Rasmussen, Sten; Kreilgaard, Mads

at Orthopaedic Department, Aalborg University Hospital, Denmark during the period May-Dec 2012. Morphine administration times (estimated precision: ±5mins), formulations and doses were extracted from medical journals in the hospitalization period or until 96 hours after surgery. RTTE modelling was performed......Title: How Repeated Time To Event (RTTE) modelling of opioid requests after surgery may improve future post-operative pain management Author: Rasmus Vestergaard Juul (1) Sten Rasmussen (2) Mads Kreilgaard (1) Ulrika S. H. Simonsson (3) Lona Louring Christrup (1) Trine Meldgaard Lund (1) Institution...... of surgery specific, drug concentration related, population specific and/or time-varying covariates of opioid requests and pain events. Conclusions: A framework has been developed based on RTTE modelling that may help improve future pain management by 1) Identification of surgery specific patterns in pain...

Self-defining future projections: exploring the identity function of thinking about the future.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Lardi, Claudia; Van der Linden, Martial

2012-01-01

The act of projecting oneself into meaningful future events may significantly contribute to a person's sense of self and identity. Yet if the role of memories, in particular self-defining memories (SDMs), in grounding the self is now well established, the identity function of anticipated future events has received comparatively little attention. This article introduces the construct of self-defining future projection (SDFP) to address this issue. Two studies show that people can readily identify significant future events that they frequently think about and that convey core information about who they are as individuals. Furthermore, a person's particular style of constructing SDMs is similarly manifested in SDFPs, suggesting that both types of events can be used to ground the self. Notably, people who display a stronger tendency to extract meaning from their past experiences also reflect more about the potential implications of imagined future events. The results further demonstrate that SDMs and SDFPs both give rise to a strong sense of personal continuity over time and are meaningfully related to self-esteem. Together these findings lend support to the idea that a person's sense of self and identity is in part nourished by the anticipation of significant future events.

Possible Future Climate Change Impacts on the Hydrological Drought Events in the Weihe River Basin, China

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fei Yuan

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Quantitative evaluation of future climate change impacts on hydrological drought characteristics is one of important measures for implementing sustainable water resources management and effective disaster mitigation in drought-prone regions under the changing environment. In this study, a modeling system for projecting the potential future climate change impacts on hydrological droughts in the Weihe River basin (WRB in North China is presented. This system consists of a large-scale hydrological model driven by climate outputs from three climate models (CMs for future streamflow projections, a probabilistic model for univariate drought assessment, and a copula-based bivariate model for joint drought frequency analysis under historical and future climates. With the observed historical climate data as the inputs, the Variable Infiltration Capacity hydrological model projects an overall runoff reduction in the WRB under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A1B scenario. The univariate drought assessment found that although fewer hydrological drought events would occur under A1B scenario, drought duration and severity tend to increase remarkably. Moreover, the bivariate drought assessment reveals that future droughts in the same return period as the baseline droughts would become more serious. With these trends in the future, the hydrological drought situation in the WRB would be further deteriorated.

A Simple Ensemble Simulation Technique for Assessment of Future Variations in Specific High-Impact Weather Events

Science.gov (United States)

Taniguchi, Kenji

2018-04-01

To investigate future variations in high-impact weather events, numerous samples are required. For the detailed assessment in a specific region, a high spatial resolution is also required. A simple ensemble simulation technique is proposed in this paper. In the proposed technique, new ensemble members were generated from one basic state vector and two perturbation vectors, which were obtained by lagged average forecasting simulations. Sensitivity experiments with different numbers of ensemble members, different simulation lengths, and different perturbation magnitudes were performed. Experimental application to a global warming study was also implemented for a typhoon event. Ensemble-mean results and ensemble spreads of total precipitation, atmospheric conditions showed similar characteristics across the sensitivity experiments. The frequencies of the maximum total and hourly precipitation also showed similar distributions. These results indicate the robustness of the proposed technique. On the other hand, considerable ensemble spread was found in each ensemble experiment. In addition, the results of the application to a global warming study showed possible variations in the future. These results indicate that the proposed technique is useful for investigating various meteorological phenomena and the impacts of global warming. The results of the ensemble simulations also enable the stochastic evaluation of differences in high-impact weather events. In addition, the impacts of a spectral nudging technique were also examined. The tracks of a typhoon were quite different between cases with and without spectral nudging; however, the ranges of the tracks among ensemble members were comparable. It indicates that spectral nudging does not necessarily suppress ensemble spread.

Component processes underlying future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Ortoleva, Claudia; Jumentier, Sabrina; Van der Linden, Martial

2010-09-01

This study sought to investigate the component processes underlying the ability to imagine future events, using an individual-differences approach. Participants completed several tasks assessing different aspects of future thinking (i.e., fluency, specificity, amount of episodic details, phenomenology) and were also assessed with tasks and questionnaires measuring various component processes that have been hypothesized to support future thinking (i.e., executive processes, visual-spatial processing, relational memory processing, self-consciousness, and time perspective). The main results showed that executive processes were correlated with various measures of future thinking, whereas visual-spatial processing abilities and time perspective were specifically related to the number of sensory descriptions reported when specific future events were imagined. Furthermore, individual differences in self-consciousness predicted the subjective feeling of experiencing the imagined future events. These results suggest that future thinking involves a collection of processes that are related to different facets of future-event representation.

Evidence of arterial wall uptake of fluorodeoxyglucose on imaging can indicate recent or future cardiovascular events in high-risk patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paulmier, B.; Khayat, R.; Duet, M.; Pierquet-Ghazzar, N.; Maunoury, C.; Sauvaget, E.; Faraggi, M.; Laissy, J.P.

2007-01-01

With this study, we sought to identify plaque inflammation as assessed by 18 FDG uptake on positron emission tomography (PET)/computed tomography (CT) as an independent cardiovascular risk factor in patients at high risk for cardiovascular events. We compared 31 consecutive cancer patients presenting with visually enhanced 18 FDG uptake in arterial walls on PET/CT (Group 1) to a selection of 34 matched cancer patients not showing arterial uptake (Group 2). All patients were followed for two years before and six months after PET/CT... Cardiovascular events were classified as older (>6 months before PET/CT) or recent ( 18 FDG uptake was computed on non-attenuation corrected data by a AW/L ratio: mean Arterial Wall uptake/Lung uptake in a normal area, and by SUV on corrected data. A calcium score (CS) was also calculated. 18 FDG uptake and CS were higher in Group 1 than Group 2 (both p = 0.02), and older and recent cardiovascular events were significantly more frequent in Group 1 than Group 2 (p = 0.001 and p = 0.03. respectively). Among the following parameters: number of conventional risk factor, calcium score and presence of 18 FDG uptake, only the latter was significantly related to the occurrence of a recent event by multivariate analysis (p = 0.02). Patients with elevated arterial 18 FDG uptake have a high risk of immediate or future cardiovascular events. Arterial 18 FDG uptake is an indicator of evolving atherosclerotic process and can indicate future cardiovascular events. (authors)

Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escobedo, Miguel A.; Iancu, Edmond

2016-01-01

We develop the event-by-event picture of the gluon distribution produced via medium-induced gluon branching by an energetic jet which propagates through a dense QCD medium. A typical event is characterized by the production of a large number of soft gluons which propagate at large angles with respect to the jet axis and which collectively carry a substantial amount of energy. By explicitly computing 2-gluon correlations, we demonstrate the existence of large event-by-event fluctuations, which reflect the stochastic nature of the branching process. For the two quantities that we have investigated — the energy loss at large angles and the soft gluon multiplicity —, the dispersion is parametrically as large as the respective expectation value. We identify interesting scaling laws, which suggest that the multiplicity distribution should exhibit KNO (Koba-Nielsen-Olesen) scaling. A similar scaling is known to hold for a jet branching in the vacuum, but the medium-induced distribution is found to be considerably broader. We predict that event-by-event measurements of the di-jet asymmetry in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC should observe large fluctuations in the number of soft hadrons propagating at large angles and also in the total energy carried by these hadrons.

High temporal discounters overvalue immediate rewards rather than undervalue future rewards: an event-related brain potential study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cherniawsky, Avital S; Holroyd, Clay B

2013-03-01

Impulsivity is characterized in part by heightened sensitivity to immediate relative to future rewards. Although previous research has suggested that "high discounters" in intertemporal choice tasks tend to prefer immediate over future rewards because they devalue the latter, it remains possible that they instead overvalue immediate rewards. To investigate this question, we recorded the reward positivity, a component of the event-related brain potential (ERP) associated with reward processing, with participants engaged in a task in which they received both immediate and future rewards and nonrewards. The participants also completed a temporal discounting task without ERP recording. We found that immediate but not future rewards elicited the reward positivity. High discounters also produced larger reward positivities to immediate rewards than did low discounters, indicating that high discounters relatively overvalued immediate rewards. These findings suggest that high discounters may be more motivated than low discounters to work for monetary rewards, irrespective of the time of arrival of the incentives.

Financial market response to extreme events indicating climatic change

Science.gov (United States)

Anttila-Hughes, J. K.

2016-05-01

A variety of recent extreme climatic events are considered to be strong evidence that the climate is warming, but these incremental advances in certainty often seem ignored by non-scientists. I identify two unusual types of events that are considered to be evidence of climate change, announcements by NASA that the global annual average temperature has set a new record, and the sudden collapse of major polar ice shelves, and then conduct an event study to test whether news of these events changes investors' valuation of energy companies, a subset of firms whose future performance is closely tied to climate change. I find evidence that both classes of events have influenced energy stock prices since the 1990s, with record temperature announcements on average associated with negative returns and ice shelf collapses associated with positive returns. I identify a variety of plausible mechanisms that may be driving these differential responses, discuss implications for energy markets' views on long-term regulatory risk, and conclude that investors not only pay attention to scientifically significant climate events, but discriminate between signals carrying different information about the nature of climatic change.

International exchange of radiological information in the event of a nuclear accident - future perspectives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De-Cort, M.; De-Vries, G.; Breitenbach, L.; Leeb, H.; Weiss, W.

1996-01-01

Immediately after the Chernobyl accident most European countries established or enhanced their national radioactivity monitoring and information systems. The large transboundary effect of the radioactive release also triggered the need for bilateral and international agreements on the exchange of radiological information in case of a nuclear accident. Based on the experiences gained from existing bi- and multilateral data exchange the Commission of the European Communities has made provision for and is developing technical systems to exchange information of common interest. Firstly the existing national systems and systems based on bilateral agreements are summarized. The objectives and technical realizations of the EC international information exchange systems ECURIE and EURDEP, are described. The experiences gained over the past few years and the concepts for the future, in which central and eastern European countries will be included, are discussed. The benefits that would result from improving the international exchange of radiological information in the event of a future nuclear accident are further being described

Carry-over effects on the annual cycle of a migratory seabird: an experimental study.

Science.gov (United States)

Fayet, Annette L; Freeman, Robin; Shoji, Akiko; Kirk, Holly L; Padget, Oliver; Perrins, Chris M; Guilford, Tim

2016-11-01

Long-lived migratory animals must balance the cost of current reproduction with their own condition ahead of a challenging migration and future reproduction. In these species, carry-over effects, which occur when events in one season affect the outcome of the subsequent season, may be particularly exacerbated. However, how carry-over effects influence future breeding outcomes and whether (and how) they also affect behaviour during migration and wintering is unclear. Here we investigate carry-over effects induced by a controlled, bidirectional manipulation of the duration of reproductive effort on the migratory, wintering and subsequent breeding behaviour of a long-lived migratory seabird, the Manx shearwater Puffinus puffinus. By cross-fostering chicks of different age between nests, we successfully prolonged or shortened by ∼25% the chick-rearing period of 42 breeding pairs. We tracked the adults with geolocators over the subsequent year and combined migration route data with at-sea activity budgets obtained from high-resolution saltwater-immersion data. Migratory behaviour was also recorded during non-experimental years (the year before and/or two years after manipulation) for a subset of birds, allowing comparison between experimental and non-experimental years within treatment groups. All birds cared for chicks until normal fledging age, resulting in birds with a longer breeding period delaying their departure on migration; however, birds that finished breeding earlier did not start migrating earlier. Increased reproductive effort resulted in less time spent at the wintering grounds, a reduction in time spent resting daily and a delayed start of breeding with lighter eggs and chicks and lower breeding success the following breeding season. Conversely, reduced reproductive effort resulted in more time resting and less time foraging during the winter, but a similar breeding phenology and success compared with control birds the following year, suggesting that

Transportation planning for planned special events

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-01

Unique among planned special event activities are those events that carry the National Special Security Event (NSSE) designation. NSSEs occur with some frequency, with 35 of these events held between September 1998 and February 2010. These events inc...

Using Family Science Day Events to Inspire Future Scientists

Science.gov (United States)

Brevik, Corinne

2015-04-01

Dickinson State University organizes four Family Science Day events each fall to increase student engagement in the sciences. Offered on Saturday afternoons, each event focuses on a different science-related theme. Families can attend these events free of charge, and the kids participate in a large-variety of hands-on activities which center around the event's theme. Previous themes include The Amazing Telescope, Night of the Titanic, Dinosaur Prophecy, and Space Exploration. These events are amazing opportunities to show young children how much fun science can be. Many of the kids come from schools where science is neither interactive nor engaging. The activities help the children learn that science is a process of discovery that helps us better understand the world around us. University students staff all of the activity booths at these events, and this has proven to be a very valuable experience for them as well. Some of the students who help are majoring in a science field, and for them, the experience teaches public communication. They learn to break complicated concepts down into simpler terms that young kids can understand. Other students who help with these events are not science majors but may be taking a science course as part of their college curriculum. For these students, the experience reinforces various concepts that they are learning in their science class. For many of them, it also opens their eyes to the idea that science can be engaging. Some of them even discover that they have a true gift for teaching.

The Relations of Stressful Events and Nonacademic Future Expectations in African American Adolescents: Gender Differences in Parental Monitoring

Science.gov (United States)

Cunningham, Michael; Mars, Dustin E.; Burns, Lateela J.

2012-01-01

Urban African American high school students (N = 206) completed a study to examine gender differences in parental monitoring and the effect on the relationship between exposure to stressful life events and nonacademic future expectations. Participant's ages range from 13 to 18 (M = 15.78, SD = 1.19). Participants reported high exposure to…

Research on Water Resources Design Carrying Capacity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guanghua Qin

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Water resources carrying capacity (WRCC is a recently proposed management concept, which aims to support sustainable socio-economic development in a region or basin. However, the calculation of future WRCC is not well considered in most studies, because water resources and the socio-economic development mode for one area or city in the future are quite uncertain. This paper focused on the limits of traditional methods of WRCC and proposed a new concept, water resources design carrying capacity (WRDCC, which incorporated the concept of design. In WRDCC, the population size that the local water resources can support is calculated based on the balance of water supply and water consumption, under the design water supply and design socio-economic development mode. The WRDCC of Chengdu city in China is calculated. Results show that the WRDCC (population size of Chengdu city in development modeI (II, III will be 997 ×104 (770 × 104, 504 × 104 in 2020, and 934 × 104 (759 × 104, 462 × 104 in 2030. Comparing the actual population to the carrying population (WRDCC in 2020 and 2030, a bigger gap will appear, which means there will be more and more pressure on the society-economic sustainable development.

Quantitative characterization of myocardial infarction by cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts future cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pauly John M

2008-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR can provide quantitative data of the myocardial tissue utilizing high spatial and temporal resolution along with exquisite tissue contrast. Previous studies have correlated myocardial scar tissue with the occurrence of ventricular arrhythmia. This study was conducted to evaluate whether characterization of myocardial infarction by CMR can predict cardiovascular events in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy (ICM. Results We consecutively studied 86 patients with ICM (LVEF Conclusion Quantification of the scar volume and scar percentage by CMR is superior to LVEDV, LVESV, and LVEF in prognosticating the future likelihood of the development of cardiovascular events in patients with ICM.

An exception to the rule: carry-over effects do not accumulate in a long-distance migratory bird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathan R Senner

Full Text Available Recent years have seen a growing consensus that events during one part of an animal's annual cycle can detrimentally affect its future fitness. Notably, migratory species have been shown to commonly display such carry-over effects, facing severe time constraints and physiological stresses that can influence events across seasons. However, to date, no study has examined a full annual cycle to determine when these carry-over effects arise and how long they persist within and across years. Understanding when carry-over effects are created and how they persist is critical to identifying those periods and geographic locations that constrain the annual cycle of a population and determining how selection is acting upon individuals throughout the entire year. Using three consecutive years of migration tracks and four consecutive years of breeding success data, we tested whether carry-over effects in the form of timing deviations during one migratory segment of the annual cycle represent fitness costs that persist or accumulate across the annual cycle for a long-distance migratory bird, the Hudsonian godwit, Limosa haemastica. We found that individual godwits could migrate progressively later than population mean over the course of an entire migration period, especially southbound migration, but that these deviations did not accumulate across the entire year and were not consistently detected among individuals across years. Furthermore, neither the accumulation of lateness during previous portions of the annual cycle nor arrival date at the breeding grounds resulted in individuals suffering reductions in their breeding success or survival. Given their extreme life history, such a lack of carry-over effects suggests that strong selection exists on godwits at each stage of the annual cycle and that carry-over effects may not be able to persist in such a system, but also emphasizes that high-quality stopover and wintering sites are critical to the

Depression, realism, and the overconfidence effect: are the sadder wiser when predicting future actions and events?

Science.gov (United States)

Dunning, D; Story, A L

1991-10-01

Do depressed individuals make more realistic judgments than their nondepressed peers in real world settings? Depressed and nondepressed Ss in 2 studies were asked to make predictions about future actions and outcomes that might occur in their personal academic and social worlds. Both groups of Ss displayed overconfidence, that is, they overestimated the likelihood that their predictions would prove to be accurate. Of key importance, depressed Ss were less accurate in their predictions, and thus more overconfident, than their nondepressed counterparts. These differences arose because depressed Ss (a) were more likely to predict the occurrence of low base-rate events and (b) were less likely to be correct when they made optimistic predictions (i.e., stated that positive events would occur or that aversive outcomes would not). Discussion focuses on implications of these findings for the depressive realism hypothesis.

Plaque Structural Stress Estimations Improve Prediction of Future Major Adverse Cardiovascular Events After Intracoronary Imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Brown, Adam J; Teng, Zhongzhao; Calvert, Patrick A; Rajani, Nikil K; Hennessy, Orla; Nerlekar, Nitesh; Obaid, Daniel R; Costopoulos, Charis; Huang, Yuan; Hoole, Stephen P; Goddard, Martin; West, Nick E J; Gillard, Jonathan H; Bennett, Martin R

2016-06-01

Although plaque rupture is responsible for most myocardial infarctions, few high-risk plaques identified by intracoronary imaging actually result in future major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). Nonimaging markers of individual plaque behavior are therefore required. Rupture occurs when plaque structural stress (PSS) exceeds material strength. We therefore assessed whether PSS could predict future MACE in high-risk nonculprit lesions identified on virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. Baseline nonculprit lesion features associated with MACE during long-term follow-up (median: 1115 days) were determined in 170 patients undergoing 3-vessel virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound. MACE was associated with plaque burden ≥70% (hazard ratio: 8.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.5-30.6; P<0.001) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (hazard ratio: 6.6; 95% confidence interval, 2.1-20.1; P=0.036), although absolute event rates for high-risk lesions remained <10%. PSS derived from virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound was subsequently estimated in nonculprit lesions responsible for MACE (n=22) versus matched control lesions (n=22). PSS showed marked heterogeneity across and between similar lesions but was significantly increased in MACE lesions at high-risk regions, including plaque burden ≥70% (13.9±11.5 versus 10.2±4.7; P<0.001) and thin-cap fibroatheroma (14.0±8.9 versus 11.6±4.5; P=0.02). Furthermore, PSS improved the ability of virtual-histology intravascular ultrasound to predict MACE in plaques with plaque burden ≥70% (adjusted log-rank, P=0.003) and minimal luminal area ≤4 mm(2) (P=0.002). Plaques responsible for MACE had larger superficial calcium inclusions, which acted to increase PSS (P<0.05). Baseline PSS is increased in plaques responsible for MACE and improves the ability of intracoronary imaging to predict events. Biomechanical modeling may complement plaque imaging for risk stratification of coronary nonculprit lesions. © 2016

Dynamics of Charged Events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bachas, Constantin; Bunster, Claudio; Henneaux, Marc

2009-01-01

In three spacetime dimensions the world volume of a magnetic source is a single point, an event. We make the event dynamical by regarding it as the imprint of a flux-carrying particle impinging from an extra dimension. This can be generalized to higher spacetime dimensions and to extended events. We exhibit universal observable consequences of the existence of events and argue that events are as important as particles or branes. We explain how events arise on the world volume of membranes in M theory, and in a Josephson junction in superconductivity.

A Century of Australian Natural Disasters and How to Reduce the Toll from Future Events

Science.gov (United States)

McAneney, J.

2014-12-01

This study reviews Australian experience of natural disasters over the last century and considers how to reduce this nation's vulnerability to such events in the future. In line with global experience, the cost of Australian weather-related natural disasters has been increasing, while loss of life has decreased, with extreme heat events responsible for more fatalities than all other natural perils combined, baring epidemics. However when disaster costs arising from historical events are normalised to current day exposure, no long-term trend emerges. Moreover the frequency of these losses shows no sign of increasing since 1950. In other words, the rising cost of natural disasters can be firmly sheeted home to the fact that there are now more of us living in vulnerable places with more to lose. In view of the above, emergency management and government risk management and strategic planning should focus on plausible large event scenarios, whatever their cause. If we wish to reduce disaster losses, land-use planning has to become risk-informed and building codes need to consider potential economic impacts, rather than just life safety. Insurers can play a role by pricing risk correctly and sending clear signals to homeowners (and governments) to stimulate risk-reducing behaviours. The tools to achieve fine-grained risk assessments are increasingly available. The success of the regulated use of the building code in tropical cyclone-prone regions in Australia and the performance of modern seismic building codes in New Zealand, shows what can be achieved when there is a demonstrated need and political will.

Carry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koijen, Ralph S.J.; Moskowitz, Tobias J.; Heje Pedersen, Lasse

that include global equities, global bonds, currencies, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and equity index options. This predictability underlies the strong returns to "carry trades" that go long high-carry and short low-carry securities, applied almost exclusively to currencies, but shown here...

FutureCoast: "Listen to your futures"

Science.gov (United States)

Pfirman, S. L.; Eklund, K.; Thacher, S.; Orlove, B. S.; Diane Stovall-Soto, G.; Brunacini, J.; Hernandez, T.

2014-12-01

Two science-arts approaches are emerging as effective means to convey "futurethinking" to learners: systems gaming and experiential futures. FutureCoast exemplifies the latter: by engaging participants with voicemails supposedly leaking from the cloud of possible futures, the storymaking game frames the complexities of climate science in relatable contexts. Because participants make the voicemails themselves, FutureCoast opens up creative ways for people to think about possibly climate-changed futures and personal ways to talk about them. FutureCoast is a project of the PoLAR Partnership with a target audience of informal adult learners primarily reached via mobile devices and online platforms. Scientists increasingly use scenarios and storylines as ways to explore the implications of environmental change and societal choices. Stories help people make connections across experiences and disciplines and link large-scale events to personal consequences. By making the future seem real today, FutureCoast's framework helps people visualize and plan for future climate changes. The voicemails contributed to FutureCoast are spread through the game's intended timeframe (2020 through 2065). Based on initial content analysis of voicemail text, common themes include ecosystems and landscapes, weather, technology, societal issues, governance and policy. Other issues somewhat less frequently discussed include security, food, industry and business, health, energy, infrastructure, water, economy, and migration. Further voicemail analysis is examining: temporal dimensions (salient time frames, short vs. long term issues, intergenerational, etc.), content (adaptation vs. mitigation, challenges vs. opportunities, etc.), and emotion (hopeful, resigned, etc. and overall emotional context). FutureCoast also engaged audiences through facilitated in-person experiences, geocaching events, and social media (Tumblr, Twitter, Facebook, YouTube). Analysis of the project suggests story

Scenarios for future agriculture in Finland: a Delphi study among agri-food sector stakeholders

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. RIKKONEN

2008-12-01

Full Text Available This article presents alternative scenarios for future agriculture in Finland up to 2025. These scenarios are the results of a large Delphi study carried out among Finnish agri-food sector stakeholders. The Delphi panel members gave their future view on desirable and probable futures. From these two dimensions, three scenarios were elaborated through the future images – the subjective future path and the importance analysis. The scenarios represent a technology optimistic “day-dream agriculture”, a probable future as “industrialised agriculture” and an undesirable future path as “drifting agriculture”. Two mini-scenarios are also presented. They are based on a discontinuity event as an unexpected impact of climate change and an analogy event as an ecological breakdown due to the expansive animal disease epidemics. In both mini-scenarios, the directions of storylines are dramatically changed. The scenarios support strategic planning introducing not only one forecast but alternative outcomes as a basis for future strategy and decisions. In this study the scenarios were constructed to address the opportunities as a desired vision and also the threats as to an undesirable future in the agricultural sector. These results bring to the table a Finnish agri-food expert community view of the future directions of relevant key issues in the agricultural policy agenda.;

Imagining the future in children with severe traumatic brain injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Lah, Suncica; Gott, Chloe; Epps, Adrienne; Parry, Louise

2018-03-22

Imagining the future events is thought to rely on re-combination and integration of past episodic memory traces into future events. Future and past events contain episodic and non-episodic details. Children with severe traumatic brain injury (TBI) were found to have impaired recall of past episodic (but not semantic) event details. Here we examined whether severe TBI impairs construction of future events. Cross-sectional. Children with severe TBI (n = 14) and healthy controls (NC; n = 33) (i) completed tests of anterograde (narrative and relational) memory and executive skills, (ii) recalled past events and generated future events, and (iii) rated events' phenomenological qualities. Events were scored for episodic (internal) and non-episodic (external) details. The groups did not differ in generating details of future events although children with TBI recalled significantly fewer past internal (but not external) events' details relative to NCs. Moreover, the number of past internal details relative to future internal details was significantly higher in the NC group, but not in the TBI groups. Significant correlations between past and future were found for (i) episodic details in both groups, and (ii) semantic details in the NC group. The TBI group rated their events as being less significant than did the NC group. The groups did not differ on ratings of visual intensity and rehearsal. Children who have sustained severe TBI had impoverished recall of past, but not generation of future events. This unexpected dissociation between past and future event construction requires further research.

ENGAGING STUDENTS THROUGH EVENT MARKETING: AN EXAMPLE OF UNIVERSITY ENTREPRENEURSHIP EVENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alev KOÇAK ALAN

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Despite the growing importance of event marketing, this study investigated the impact of entrepreneurship event on university students which was hosting by one of the leading university in Turkey. Three different assets of event image (event inventiveness, event appropriateness, event adequacy were proposed to influence students’ satisfaction and revisit intentions. Research conducted to 468 students which participate in the entrepreneurship event for two days. For the analyses structural equation modeling technique was used. It was found that (i the dimensions of event image (inventiveness, appropriateness, and adequacy have an impact on students’ satisfaction and (ii students’ satisfaction was a main driver of their revisit intention. Results, future researches and managerial implications were addressed.

News Competition: Physics Olympiad hits Thailand Report: Institute carries out survey into maths in physics at university Event: A day for everyone teaching physics Conference: Welsh conference celebrates birthday Schools: Researchers in Residence scheme set to close Teachers: A day for new physics teachers Social: Network combines fun and physics Forthcoming events

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-01

Competition: Physics Olympiad hits Thailand Report: Institute carries out survey into maths in physics at university Event: A day for everyone teaching physics Conference: Welsh conference celebrates birthday Schools: Researchers in Residence scheme set to close Teachers: A day for new physics teachers Social: Network combines fun and physics Forthcoming events

Vulnerability assessment of Central-East Sardinia (Italy to extreme rainfall events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Bodini

2010-01-01

Full Text Available In Sardinia (Italy, the highest frequency of extreme events is recorded in the Central-East area (3–4 events per year. The presence of high and steep mountains near the sea on the central and south-eastern coast, causes an East-West precipitation gradient in autumn especially, due to hot and moist currents coming from Africa. Soil structure and utilization make this area highly vulnerable to flash flooding and landslides. The specific purpose of this work is to provide a description of the heavy rainfall phenomenon on a statistical basis. The analysis mainly focuses on i the existence of trends in heavy rainfall and ii the characterization of the distribution of extreme events. First, to study possible trends in extreme events a few indices have been analyzed by the linear regression test. The analysis has been carried out at annual and seasonal scales. Then, extreme values analysis has been carried out by fitting a Generalized Pareto Distribution (GPD to the data. As far as trends are concerned, different results are obtained at the two temporal scales: significant trends are obtained at the seasonal scale which are masked at the annual scale. By combining trend analysis and GPD analysis, the vulnerability of the study area to the occurrence of heavy rainfall has been characterized. Therefore, this work might support the improvement of land use planning and the application of suitable prevention systems. Future work will consider the extension of the analysis to all Sardinia and the application of statistical methods taking into account the spatial correlation of extreme events.

Event generation and production of signal inputs for the search of dark matter mediator signal at a future hadron collider

CERN Document Server

Chalise, Darshan

2017-01-01

The interaction between Dark Matter particles and Standard Model particles is possible through a force mediated by a Dark Matter(DM) - Standard Model(SM) mediator. If that mediator decays through a dijet event, the reconstructed invariant mass of the jets will peak at a specific value, in contrast to the smooth QCD background. This analysis is a preliminary work towards the understanding of how changes in detector conditions at the Future Circular Collider affect the sensitivity of the mediator signal. MadGraph 5 was used to produce events with 30 TeV DM mediator and Heppy was used to produce flat n-tuples for ROOT analysis. MadAnalysis 5 was then used to produce histograms of MadGraph events and PyRoot was used to analyze Heppy output. Histograms of invariant mass of the jets after event production through MadGraph as well as after Heppy analysis showed a peak at 30 TeV. This verified the production of a 30 TeV mediator during event production.

Analysis of Environmental Carrying Capacity with Emergy Perspective of Jeju Island

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chanhoon Jung

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Jeju Island experienced an approximately 42% increase in energy consumption from 2006 to 2015 and the demand for energy consumption is expected to continue to increase. Thus, Jeju Island is planning a project entitled “Carbon Free Island by 2030” to promote sustainable development and is required to estimate the environmental carrying capacity for future energy demand changes. The purpose of this study was to calculate the emergy inherent in Jeju Island’s energy, materials, and information in 2015 using the emergy analysis method and local characteristics. In addition, this study aimed to estimate the emergy indices to evaluate the environmental carrying capacity for sustainable development in 2005, 2015, and 2030 considering the future energy demand. This study’s outputs provide the environmental carrying capacity with emergy indices, such as the percent renewable (%Renew, emergy yield ratio (EYR, environmental loading ratio (ELR, sustainability index (SI, and carrying capacity of the population (CCP for social and economic activities on Jeju Island, which are expected to be saturated. These findings show regions with heavy tourism require development strategies, including the concept of environmental carrying capacity.

Assessment of future extreme climate events over the Porto wine Region

Science.gov (United States)

Viceto, Carolina; Cardoso, Susana; Marta-Almeida, Martinho; Gorodetskaya, Irina; Rocha, Alfredo

2017-04-01

to be produced (Porto and Douro wine), while climate variability affects the annual productivity and quality of the grape harvest. Our study investigates changes in the extreme climate events in the future model runs, through a set of climate change indicators defined by the WRCP's Expert Team in Climate Change Detection and Indices, which uses variables such as daily maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation amounts. Furthermore, we explore heat waves and their properties (duration, intensity and recovery factor). The analysis shows an increase of the mean temperature in the DDR higher than 2°C by the mid-21st century and 4.5°C by the end of the century, relatively to the reference period. Moreover, we found a major predisposition towards higher values of minimum and maximum daily temperatures and a decrease in the total precipitation during both future periods. These preliminary results indicate increased climatic stress on the DDR wine production and increased vulnerability of the wine varieties in this region.

Eying the future: Eye movement in past and future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

El Haj, Mohamad; Lenoble, Quentin

2017-06-07

We investigated eye movement during past and future thinking. Participants were invited to retrieve past events and to imagine future events while their scan path was recorded by an eye-tracker. Past thinking triggered more fixation (p thinking. Past and future thinking triggered a similar duration of fixations and saccades, as well as a similar amplitude of saccades. Interestingly, participants rated past thinking as more vivid than future thinking (p thinking seems to be accompanied by an increased number of fixations and saccades. Fixations and saccades in past thinking can be interpreted as an attempt by the visual system to find (through saccades) and activate (through fixations) stored memory representations. The same interpretation can be applied to future thinking as this ability requires activation of past experiences. However, future thinking triggers fewer fixations and saccades than past thinking: this may be due to its decreased demand on visual imagery, but could also be related to a potentially deleterious effect of eye movements on spatial imagery required for future thinking. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Black Hole Event Horizons and Advection-Dominated Accretion

Science.gov (United States)

McClintock, Jeffrey; Mushotzky, Richard F. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The work supported in part by this grant is part of a larger program on the detection of black hole event horizons, which is also partially supported by NASA grant GO0-1105A. This work has been carried out primarily in collaboration with Dr. M. Garcia and Prof. R. Narayan at the Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics and with D. Barret and J. Hameury at Centre d'Etude Spoliate des Rayonnements, France. Our purpose is to confirm the existence of black-hole event horizons by comparing accreting black holes to secreting neutron stars in quiescent X-ray novae. Such a comparison is feasible because black holes and neutron stars are both present in similar environments in X-ray novae. Our second purpose is to assess the nature of accretion flows onto black holes at very low mass transfer rates. Observations of some XMM targets are still pending, whereas most of the Chandra observations have been completed. We anticipate further publications on this work in the future.

Continental-Scale Estimates of Runoff Using Future Climate Storm Events

Science.gov (United States)

Recent runoff events have had serious repercussions to both natural ecosystems and human infrastructure. Understanding how shifts in storm event intensities are expected to change runoff responses are valuable for local, regional, and landscape planning. To address this challenge...

Not all past events are equal: biased attention and emerging heuristics in children's past-to-future forecasting.

Science.gov (United States)

Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen; Sayfan, Liat

2013-01-01

Four- to 10-year-olds and adults (N = 265) responded to eight scenarios presented on an eye tracker. Each trial involved a character who encounters a perpetrator who had previously enacted positive (P), negative (N), or both types of actions toward him or her in varying sequences (NN, PP, PN, and NP). Participants predicted the character's thoughts about the likelihood of future events, emotion type and intensity, and decision to approach or avoid. All ages made more positive forecasts for PP > NP > PN > NN trials, with differentiation by past experience widening with age. Age-related increases in weighting the most recent past event also appeared in eye gaze. Individual differences in biased visual attention correlated with verbal judgments. Findings contribute to research on risk assessment, person perception, and heuristics in judgment and decision making. © 2013 The Authors. Child Development © 2013 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Carry trade as a speculative investment strategy in Serbia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bungin Sanja

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper is analyses causes and the consequences of a speculative investment carry trade strategy in the exchange market in Serbia. The presence of such type of investor is related to high yields of risk free securities denominated in dinars, as well as the perception of future movements of dinar exchange rate related to currency that serves as source of investment. The consequences of carry trade may significantly influence exchange rate movements when monetary policy has limited facilities to combat negative and sudden shocks.

Carrying capacity: the tradition and policy implications of limits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Virginia Deane Abernethy

2001-01-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: Within just the last few centuries, science and technology have enlarged human capabilities and population size until humans now take, for their own use, nearly half of the Earth's net terrestrial primary production. An ethical perspective suggests that potentials to alter, or further increase, humanity's use of global resources should be scrutinized through the lenses of self-interested foresightedness and respect for non-human life. Without overtly invoking ethics, studies of the carrying capacity achieve just this objective. Carrying capacity is an ecological concept that expresses the relationship between a population and the natural environment on which it depends for ongoing sustenance. Carrying capacity assumes limits on the number of individuals that can be supported at a given level of consumption without degrading the environment and, therefore, reducing future carrying capacity. That is, carrying capacity addresses long-term sustainability. Worldviews differ in the importance accorded to the carrying capacity concept. This paper addresses three worldviews - ecological, romantic, and entrepreneurial - and explores the ethics and the policy implications of their contrasting perspectives.

Visual perspective in remembering and episodic future thought.

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, Kathleen B; Wooldridge, Cynthia L; Rice, Heather J; Berg, Jeffrey J; Szpunar, Karl K

2016-01-01

According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis, remembering and episodic future thinking are supported by a common set of constructive processes. In the present study, we directly addressed this assertion in the context of third-person perspectives that arise during remembering and episodic future thought. Specifically, we examined the frequency with which participants remembered past events or imagined future events from third-person perspectives. We also examined the different viewpoints from which third-person perspective events were remembered or imagined. Although future events were somewhat more likely to be imagined from a third-person perspective, the spatial viewpoint distributions of third-person perspectives characterizing remembered and imagined events were highly similar. These results suggest that a similar constructive mechanism may be at work when people remember events from a perspective that could not have been experienced in the past and when they imagine events from a perspective that could not be experienced in the future. The findings are discussed in terms of their consistency with--and as extensions of--the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis.

A high-speed DAQ framework for future high-level trigger and event building clusters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caselle, M.; Perez, L.E. Ardila; Balzer, M.; Dritschler, T.; Kopmann, A.; Mohr, H.; Rota, L.; Vogelgesang, M.; Weber, M.

2017-01-01

Modern data acquisition and trigger systems require a throughput of several GB/s and latencies of the order of microseconds. To satisfy such requirements, a heterogeneous readout system based on FPGA readout cards and GPU-based computing nodes coupled by InfiniBand has been developed. The incoming data from the back-end electronics is delivered directly into the internal memory of GPUs through a dedicated peer-to-peer PCIe communication. High performance DMA engines have been developed for direct communication between FPGAs and GPUs using 'DirectGMA (AMD)' and 'GPUDirect (NVIDIA)' technologies. The proposed infrastructure is a candidate for future generations of event building clusters, high-level trigger filter farms and low-level trigger system. In this paper the heterogeneous FPGA-GPU architecture will be presented and its performance be discussed.

The development of future thinking: young children's ability to construct event sequences to achieve future goals.

Science.gov (United States)

Prabhakar, Janani; Hudson, Judith A

2014-11-01

Previous studies suggest that the ability to think about and act on the future emerges between 3 and 5 years of age. However, it is unclear what underlying processes change during the development of early future-oriented behavior. We report three experiments that tested the emergence of future thinking ability through children's ability to explicitly maintain future goals and construct future scenarios. Our main objectives were to examine the effects of goal structure and the effects of working memory demands on children's ability to construct future scenarios and make choices to satisfy future goals. The results indicate that 4-year-olds were able to successfully accomplish two temporally ordered goals even with high working memory demands and a complex goal structure, whereas 3-year-olds were able to accomplish two goals only when the working memory demands were low and the goal structure did not involve additional demands from inferential reasoning and contingencies between the temporally ordered goals. Results are discussed in terms of the development of future thinking in conjunction with working memory, inferential reasoning ability, and goal maintenance abilities. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Measurement of the neutron fraction event-by-event in DREAM

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hauptman, John; Akchurin, N; Bedeschi, F; Carosi, R; Incagli, M; Cardini, A; Ciapetti, G; Lacava, F; Pinci, D; Ferrari, R; Gaudio, G; Franchino, S; Fraternali, M; Livan, M; Negri, A; Hauptman, J; Lee, S; La Rotonda, L; Meoni, E; Policicchio, A

2011-01-01

We have measured the neutron fraction event-by-event in beam test data taken at CERN by the DREAM collaboration. I will review these measurements in the context of the importance of neutrons to future high-precision calorimetry, and bring together the data from SPACAL, the GLD compensating calorimeter, and DREAM to estimate the impact neutron fraction measurements will make on hadronic energy resolution in dual-readout calorimeters.

SENTINEL EVENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrej Robida

2004-09-01

the surveyed persons agreed to disclosure of the event to a patient but this was the case in less than half of the occasions.Conclusions. The small number of reports of sentinel events, late or incomplete reporting of conducted analyses of root causes and plans for future prevention of these events and survey data showed the state of culture in the majority of hospitals. Fear of reporting and therefore, hiding of errors or ascribing errors to the »usual« complications of a disease or procedures, the reaction of leadership to quickly find a culprit for the event, disregarding a serious approach to analyze the event and taking measures for their future prevention leads to the culture of silence. Root cause analysis of the events showed that the reason frequently lies in systems and processes and not in individuals. Health care will never be without risks for patients. However, with an open approach without the blaming and shaming of individuals, implementation of reporting the events in hospitals and other health care facilities with clear goals of patient safety, standardization of equipment, materials, and processes and education on patient safety many sentinel events and medical errors could and should be prevented.

Cascading Events, Technology and the Floods Directive: future challenges

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pescaroli Gianluca

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Cascading events can be referred to multidimensional disasters, where a primary trigger generates a nonlinear series of secondary emergencies that escalate in time, becoming eventually the priority to tackle. In this process, critical infrastructure can be handled as roots of vulnerabilities, because they accumulate both physical attributes and functional nodes. When compromised, they produce widespread breakdowns of society, but also orient emergency responses and long-term recovery. Although floods have been widely associated to the failure of vulnerable equipments or to the disruption of strategic sectors such as energy, communication and transportation, their integration with the emerging concept of cascading has been limited. This open topic presents many challenges for scholars, researchers and practitioners, in particular when the implementation of the EU Floods Directive is considered. The paper presents an overview of the Floods Directive and its relation with the cascading events, using case studies and examples from the existing literature to point out missing links and gaps in the legislation. Conclusions argue that the Directive considers only local geographical scales and limited temporal horizons, which can be result inadequate to limit the escalation of events.

Consumerism and the Sister Carrie's American Dream%Consumerism and the Sister Carrie''s American Dream

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

卢亚丽

2017-01-01

From the aspect of consumerism to this text analyze Sister Carrie's"American dream"destruction. The author wholly and deeply analyzes the embodiment of consumerism in Dreiser's Sister Carrie and Dreiser's outlook and values under the effect of consumerism. To prove that the reason for destruction of Carrie's American dream is consumerism.

The Academic Book of the Future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marilyn Deegan

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The Academic Book of the Future is a research project funded by the Arts and Humanities Research Council (AHRC in collaboration with The British Library (BL and is concerned with how scholarly work in the arts and humanities will be produced, read and preserved in coming years. The project is run by a team from University College London (UCL and King’s College London (King’s, with support from the Research Information Network (RIN. The project has built a Community Coalition of more than 100 organizations and individuals.  The project and the Coalition are holding a whole range of events and carrying out research projects on a variety of relevant topics. The key event for 2015 is Academic Book Week, 9-16 November 2015, which has been taken up enthusiastically by the Publishers Association (PA and the Booksellers Association (BA, as well as the Association of Learned and Professional Society Publishers (ALPSP, and was launched in July 2015 with a large announcement in 'The Bookseller. 'Events celebrating the diversity, innovation and influence of academic books will be held across the UK, with participation from institutions elsewhere in Europe and also in the USA, Canada, Japan and Australia.

Culture, temporal focus, and values of the past and the future.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Tieyuan; Ji, Li-Jun; Spina, Roy; Zhang, Zhiyong

2012-08-01

This article examines cultural differences in how people value future and past events. Throughout four studies, the authors found that European Canadians attached more monetary value to an event in the future than to an identical event in the past, whereas Chinese and Chinese Canadians placed more monetary value to a past event than to an identical future event. The authors also showed that temporal focus-thinking about the past or future-explained cultural influences on the temporal value asymmetry effect. Specifically, when induced to think about and focus on the future, Chinese valued the future more than the past, just like Euro-Canadians; when induced to think about and focus on the past, Euro-Canadians valued the past more than the future, just like Chinese.

Foil fabrication for the ROMANO event. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romo, J.G. Jr.; Weed, J.W.; Griggs, G.E.; Brown, T.G.; Tassano, P.L.

1984-01-01

The Vacuum Processes Lab (VPL), of LLNL's M.E. Dept. - Material Fabrication Division (MFD), conducted various vacuum related support activities for the ROMANO nuclear physics experiment. This report focuses on the foil fabrication activities carried out between July and November 1983 for the ROMANO event. Other vacuum related activities for ROMANO, such as outgassing tests of materials, are covered in separate documentation. VPL was asked to provide 270 coated Parylene foils for the ROMANO event. However, due to the developmental nature of some of the procedures, approximately 400 coated foils were processed. In addition, VPL interacted with MFD's Plastics Shop to help supply Parylene substrates to other organizations (i.e., LBL and commercial vendors) which had also been asked to provide coated foils for ROMANO. The purposes of this report are (A) to document the processes developed and the techniques used to produce the foils, and (B) to suggest future directions. The report is divided into four sections describing: (1) nuclear target foil fabrication, (2) Parylene substrate preparation and production, (3) calibration foil fabrication, and (4) foil and substrate inspections

Joint Attributes and Event Analysis for Multimedia Event Detection.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Zhigang; Chang, Xiaojun; Xu, Zhongwen; Sebe, Nicu; Hauptmann, Alexander G

2017-06-15

Semantic attributes have been increasingly used the past few years for multimedia event detection (MED) with promising results. The motivation is that multimedia events generally consist of lower level components such as objects, scenes, and actions. By characterizing multimedia event videos with semantic attributes, one could exploit more informative cues for improved detection results. Much existing work obtains semantic attributes from images, which may be suboptimal for video analysis since these image-inferred attributes do not carry dynamic information that is essential for videos. To address this issue, we propose to learn semantic attributes from external videos using their semantic labels. We name them video attributes in this paper. In contrast with multimedia event videos, these external videos depict lower level contents such as objects, scenes, and actions. To harness video attributes, we propose an algorithm established on a correlation vector that correlates them to a target event. Consequently, we could incorporate video attributes latently as extra information into the event detector learnt from multimedia event videos in a joint framework. To validate our method, we perform experiments on the real-world large-scale TRECVID MED 2013 and 2014 data sets and compare our method with several state-of-the-art algorithms. The experiments show that our method is advantageous for MED.

Future Drought Projections over the Iberian Peninsula using Drought Indices

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia-Valdecasas Ojeda, M.; Yeste Donaire, P.; Góngora García, T. M.; Gámiz-Fortis, S. R.; Castro-Diez, Y.; Esteban-Parra, M. J.

2017-12-01

Currently, drought events are the cause of numerous annual economic losses. In a context of climate change, it is expected an increase in the severity and the frequency of drought occurrences, especially in areas such as the Mediterranean region. This study makes use of two drought indices in order to analyze the potential changes on future drought events and their effects at different time scales over a vulnerable region, the Iberian Peninsula. The indices selected were the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI), which takes into account the global warming through the temperature, and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), based solely on precipitation data, at a spatial resolution of 0.088º ( 10 km). For their computation, current (1980-2014) and future (2021-2050 and 2071-2100) high resolution simulations were carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model over a domain centered in the Iberian Peninsula, and nested in the 0.44 EUROCORDEX region. WRF simulations were driven by two different global bias-corrected climate models: the version 1 of NCAR's Community Earth System Model (CESM1) and the Max Planck Institute's Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR), and under two different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Future projections were analyzed regarding to changes in mean, median and variance of drought indices with respect to the historical distribution, as well as changes in the frequency and duration of moderate and severe drought events. In general, results suggest an increase in frequency and severity of drought, especially for 2071-2100 period in the RCP 8.5 scenario. Results also shown an increase of drought phenomena more evident using the SPEI. Conclusions from this study could provide a valuable contribution to the understanding of how the increase of the temperature would affect the drought variability in the Mediterranean regions which is necessary for a suitable

Evolutionary paths, applications and future development of discrete event simulation systems; Simulazione a eventi discreti: nuove linee di sviluppo e applicazioni

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Garetti, M. [Milan Politecnico, Milan (Italy). Dipt. di Economia e Produzione; Bartolotta, A.

2000-10-01

The state of the art of discrete event simulation tools is presented with special reference to the application to the manufacturing systems area. After presenting the basics of discrete event computer simulation, the different steps to be followed for the successful use of simulation are defined and discussed. The evolution of software packages for discrete event simulation is also presented, highlighting main technological changes. Finally the future development lines of simulation are outlined. [Italian] Viene presentato lo stato dell'arte della simulazione a eventi discreti. Dopo una breve descrizione della tecnica della simulazione e della sua evoluzione, con un particolare riguardo alla simulazione dei sistemi produttivi, sono descritte le fasi della procedura da seguire per condurre unostudio di simulazione e i possibili approcci per la costruzione del modello. Viene infine descritta l'evoluzione dei principali pacchetti software di simulazione esistenti sul mercato.

Concept and Connotation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in Water Ecological Civilization Construction

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Zhilong; Song, Xiaoyu; Feng, Xianghua

2018-01-01

Water ecological civilization construction is based on the water resources carrying capacity, guided by the sustainable development concept, adhered to the human-water harmony thoughts. This paper has comprehensive analyzed the concept and characteristics of the carrying capacity of water resources in the water ecological civilization construction, and discussed the research methods and evaluation index system of water carrying capacity in the water ecological civilization construction, finally pointed out that the problems and solutions of water carrying capacity in the water ecological civilization construction and put forward the future research prospect.

Unrequested information from routine diagnostic chest CT predicts future cardiovascular events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobs, Peter C.; Gondrie, Martijn J.; Grobbee, Diederick E.; Graaf, Yolanda van der; Mali, Willem P.; Oen, Ayke L.; Prokop, Mathias

2011-01-01

An increase in the number of CT investigations will likely result in a an increase in unrequested information. Clinical relevance of these findings is unknown. This is the first follow-up study to investigate the prognostic relevance of subclinical coronary (CAC) and aortic calcification (TAC) as contained in routine diagnostic chest CT in a clinical care population. The follow-up of 10,410 subjects (>40 years) from a multicentre, clinical care-based cohort of patients included 240 fatal to 275 non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) events (mean follow-up 17.8 months). Patients with a history of CVD were excluded. Coronary (0-12) and aortic calcification (0-8) were semi-quantitatively scored. We used Cox proportional-hazard models to compute hazard ratios to predict CVD events. CAC and TAC were significantly and independently predictive of CVD events. Compared with subjects with no calcium, the adjusted risk of a CVD event was 3.7 times higher (95% CI, 2.7-5.2) among patients with severe coronary calcification (CAC score ≥6) and 2.7 times higher (95% CI, 2.0-3.7) among patients with severe aortic calcification (TAC score ≥5). Subclinical vascular calcification on CT is a strong predictor of incident CVD events in a routine clinical care population. (orig.)

Remembering the past and imagining the future in the elderly

Science.gov (United States)

Schacter, Daniel L.; Gaesser, Brendan; Addis, Donna Rose

2013-01-01

Recent research has demonstrated commonalities between remembering past events and imagining future events. Behavioral studies have revealed that remembering the past and imagining the future depend on shared cognitive processes, whereas neuropsychological and neuroimaging studies have shown that many of the same brain regions are involved in both remembering the past and imagining the future. Here, we review recent cognitive and neuroimaging studies that examine remembering the past and imagining the future in elderly adults. These studies document significant changes in elderly adults’ capacities to imagine future events that are correlated with their memory deficits; most strikingly, older adults tend to remember the past and imagine the future with less episodic detail than younger adults. These findings are in line with the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis, which holds that that past and future events draw on similar information and rely on similar underlying processes, and that episodic memory supports the construction of future events by extracting and recombining stored information into a simulation of a novel event. At the same time, however, recent data indicate that non-episodic factors also contribute to age-related changes in remembering the past and imagining the future. We conclude by considering a number questions and challenges concerning the interpretation of age-related changes in remembering and imagining, as well as functional implications of this research for everyday concerns of older adults. PMID:22987157

Application of Load Carrying Sandwich Elements in Wind Turbine Blades

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jacob Fisker; Schultz, Jacob Pagh; Berggreen, Carl Christian

2005-01-01

The present work investigates the possibilities and drawbacks when applying sandwich as opposed to single skin composites in the flanges of the load carrying spar in a future 180 m wind turbine rotor. FEA is applied to investigate two basic designs with single skin and sandwich flanges respectively...

Potential Future Igneous Activity at Yucca Mountain, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cline, M.; Perry, F.; Valentine, G.; Smistad, E.

2005-01-01

Location, timing, and volumes of post-Miocene volcanic activity, along with expert judgment, provide the basis for assessing the probability of future volcanism intersecting a proposed repository for nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. Analog studies of eruptive centers in the region that may represent the style and extent of possible future igneous activity at Yucca Mountain have aided in defining the consequence scenarios for intrusion into and eruption through a proposed repository. Modeling of magmatic processes related to magma/proposed repository interactions has been used to assess the potential consequences of a future igneous event through a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain. Results of work to date indicate future igneous activity in the Yucca Mountain region has a very low probability of intersecting the proposed repository. Probability of a future event intersecting a proposed repository at Yucca Mountain is approximately 1.7 x 10 -8 per year. Since completion of the Probabilistic Volcanic Hazard Assessment (PVHA) in 1996, anomalies representing potential buried volcanic centers have been identified from aeromagnetic surveys. A re-assessment of the hazard is currently underway to evaluate the probability of intersection in light of new information and to estimate the probability of one or more volcanic conduits located in the proposed repository along a dike that intersects the proposed repository. US Nuclear Regulatory Commission regulations for siting and licensing a proposed repository require that the consequences of a disruptive event (igneous event) with annual probability greater than 1 x 10 -8 be evaluated. Two consequence scenarios are considered: (1) igneous intrusion-poundwater transport case and (2) volcanic eruptive case. These scenarios equate to a dike or dike swarm intersecting repository drifts containing waste packages, formation of a conduit leading to a volcanic eruption through the repository that carries the contents of

LOSP-initiated event tree analysis for BWR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watanabe, Norio; Kondo, Masaaki; Uno, Kiyotaka; Chigusa, Takeshi; Harami, Taikan

1989-03-01

As a preliminary study of 'Japanese Model Plant PSA', a LOSP (loss of off-site power)-initiated Event Tree Analysis for a Japanese typical BWR was carried out solely based on the open documents such as 'Safety Analysis Report'. The objectives of this analysis are as follows; - to delineate core-melt accident sequences initiated by LOSP, - to evaluate the importance of core-melt accident sequences in terms of occurrence frequency, and - to develop a foundation of plant information and analytical procedures for efficiently performing further 'Japanese Model Plant PSA'. This report describes the procedure and results of the LOSP-initiated Event Tree Analysis. In this analysis, two types of event trees, Functional Event Tree and Systemic Event Tree, were developed to delineate core-melt accident sequences and to quantify their frequencies. Front-line System Event Tree was prepared as well to provide core-melt sequence delineation for accident progression analysis of Level 2 PSA which will be followed in a future. Applying U.S. operational experience data such as component failure rates and a LOSP frequency, we obtained the following results; - The total frequency of core-melt accident sequences initiated by LOSP is estimated at 5 x 10 -4 per reactor-year. - The dominant sequences are 'Loss of Decay Heat Removal' and 'Loss of Emergency Electric Power Supply', which account for more than 90% of the total core-melt frequency. In this analysis, a higher value of 0.13/R·Y was used for the LOSP frequency than experiences in Japan and any recovery action was not considered. In fact, however, there has been no experience of LOSP event in Japanese nuclear power plants so far and it is also expected that offsite power and/or PCS would be recovered before core melt. Considering Japanese operating experience and recovery factors will reduce the total core-melt frequency to less than 10 -6 per reactor-year. (J.P.N.)

Carry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Koijen, Ralph S.J.; Moskowitz, Tobias; Pedersen, Lasse Heje

2018-01-01

-sectionally and in time series for a host of different asset classes, including global equities, global bonds, commodities, US Treasuries, credit, and options. Carry is not explained by known predictors of returns from these asset classes, and it captures many of these predictors, providing a unifying framework...... for return predictability. We reject a generalized version of Uncovered Interest Parity and the Expectations Hypothesis in favor of models with varying risk premia, in which carry strategies are commonly exposed to global recession, liquidity, and volatility risks, though none fully explains carry’s premium....

Procrastination, consideration of future consequences, and episodic future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Rebetez, Marie My Lien; Barsics, Catherine; Rochat, Lucien; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-05-01

Despite the intrinsic temporal nature of procrastination, little research has examined the link between this form of self-regulatory failure and the consideration of future consequences, and no study has addressed the link between procrastination and episodic future thinking. The aim of the present study was to explore these relationships. Participants were asked to project themselves into possible future events and to rate the amount of sensory-perceptual details and autonoetic consciousness associated with their representations. They were also asked to complete questionnaires that assessed procrastination, the consideration of future consequences, and negative affect. Results showed that both the consideration of future consequences and episodic future thinking were associated with procrastination, and in particular with procrastination-related decision making abilities and procrastination-related motivational dispositions, respectively. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

AGILE OBSERVATIONS OF THE GRAVITATIONAL-WAVE EVENT GW150914

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tavani, M.; Donnarumma, I.; Argan, A.; Monte, E. Del; Evangelista, Y.; Piano, G.; Munar-Adrover, P. [INAF-IAPS, via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Pittori, C.; Verrecchia, F.; Lucarelli, F.; Antonelli, L. A. [ASI Science Data Center (ASDC), Via del Politecnico, I-00133 Roma (Italy); Bulgarelli, A.; Marisaldi, M.; Fioretti, V.; Zoli, A. [INAF-IASF-Bologna, Via Gobetti 101, I-40129 Bologna (Italy); Giuliani, A.; Caraveo, P. [INAF-IASF Milano, via E.Bassini 15, I-20133 Milano (Italy); Trois, A. [INAF, Osservatorio Astronomico di Cagliari, Poggio dei Pini, strada 54, I-09012 Capoterra (Italy); Barbiellini, G. [Dip. di Fisica, Universita’ di Trieste and INFN, Via Valerio 2, I-34127 Trieste (Italy); Cattaneo, P. W., E-mail: victor@roma2.infn.it.it [INFN-Pavia, Via Bassi 6, I-27100 Pavia (Italy); and others

2016-07-01

We report the results of an extensive search through the AGILE data for a gamma-ray counterpart to the LIGO gravitational-wave (GW) event GW150914. Currently in spinning mode, AGILE has the potential of cover 80% of the sky with its gamma-ray instrument, more than 100 times a day. It turns out that AGILE came within a minute of the event time of observing the accessible GW150914 localization region. Interestingly, the gamma-ray detector exposed ∼65% of this region during the 100 s time intervals centered at −100 and +300 s from the event time. We determine a 2 σ flux upper limit in the band 50 MeV–10 GeV, UL = 1.9 × 10{sup −8} erg cm{sup −2} s{sup −1}, obtained ∼300 s after the event. The timing of this measurement is the fastest ever obtained for GW150914, and significantly constrains the electromagnetic emission of a possible high-energy counterpart. We also carried out a search for a gamma-ray precursor and delayed emission over five timescales ranging from minutes to days: in particular, we obtained an optimal exposure during the interval −150/−30 s. In all these observations, we do not detect a significant signal associated with GW150914. We do not reveal the weak transient source reported by Fermi -GBM 0.4 s after the event time. However, even though a gamma-ray counterpart of the GW150914 event was not detected, the prospects for future AGILE observations of GW sources are decidedly promising.

Imagining the future: evidence for a hippocampal contribution to constructive processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaesser, Brendan; Spreng, R Nathan; McLelland, Victoria C; Addis, Donna Rose; Schacter, Daniel L

2013-12-01

Imagining future events and remembering past events rely on a common core network, but several regions within this network--including the hippocampus--show increased activity for imagining future events compared to remembering past events. It remains unclear whether this hippocampal activity reflects processes related to the demands of constructing details retrieved across disparate episodic memories into coherent imaginary events, encoding these events into memory, novelty detection, or some combination of these processes. We manipulated the degree of constructive processing by comparing activity associated with the initial construction of an imagined scenario with the re-construction of an imagined scenario (imagine vs. re-imagine). After accounting for effects of novelty and subsequent memory, we found that a region in the hippocampus was preferentially activated for newly constructed imagined events compared with re-imagined events. Our results suggest that the hippocampus may support several distinct but related processes that are critical for imagining future events, and they also indicate that a particular region within posterior hippocampus may uniquely contribute to the construction of imagined future events. Copyright © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Tales of future weather

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hazeleger, W.; Van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Min, E.; Van Oldenborgh, G.J.; Petersen, A.C.; Stainforth, D.A.; Vasileiadou, E.; Smith, L.A.

2015-01-01

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The

SLOW SLIP EVENTS: PARAMETERS, CONDITIONS OF OCCURRENCE, AND FUTURE RESEARCH PROSPECTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. G. Kocharyan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Slow slip events along faults and fractures are reviewed. Such inter-block displacements can be recorded at various scale levels and considered as transitional from quasi-stable (creep to dynamic slip (earthquake. Such events include seismogenic slip along faults at velocities by one to three orders lower than those in case of 'normal' earthquakes, as well as aseismic slip cases. Discovering such events facilitates better understanding of how energy accumulated during deformation of the crust is released.Studying conditions and the evolution of transitional regimes can provide new important information on the structure and regularities of deformation in fault zones.Data from latest publications by different authors are consolidated, and the data analysis results are presented. Over 170 slow slip events are reviewed. Based on the consolidated data and modelling results obtained by the authors, relationships between parameters of the reviewed process are established, scale relations between the events are considered, and a first-approximation analysis is conducted for impacts of geomaterial characteristics on various deformation regimes.Low-frequency earthquake foci and slow slip sites are most typically located in zones of transition from stable creep areas to seismogenic segments of the discontinuity (Fig. 3 It can be logically supposed that in such transitional zones, the interface has specific frictional properties providing for a regime that can be termed as 'conditionally stable slip'.The duration of slow deformation events is roughly proportional to the released seismic moment, while such a ratio is close to self-similarity in case of 'normal' earthquakes (Fig. 4. In case of slow slip, an area of the displaced section is larger by many factors than the corresponding value for an earthquake with the same seismic moment, while an average displacement amplitude along the fault is significantly smaller (Figures 5 and 6. Velocities of slip

Future heat stress arising from climate change on Iran's population health

Science.gov (United States)

Modarres, Reza; Ghadami, Mohammad; Naderi, Sohrab; Naderi, Mohammad

2018-04-01

Climate change-induced extreme heat events are becoming a major issue in different parts of the world, especially in developing countries. The assessment of regional and temporal past and future change in heat waves is a crucial task for public health strategies and managements. The historical and future heat index (HI) time series are investigated for temporal change across Iran to study the impact of global warming on public health. The heat index is calculated, and the nonparametric trend assessment is carried out for historical time series (1981-2010). The future change in heat index is also projected for 2020-2049 and 2070-2099 periods. A rise in the historical heat index and extreme caution conditions for summer and spring seasons for major parts of Iran are notable for historical (1981-2010) series in this study. Using different climate change scenarios shows that heat index will exceed the critical threshold for human adaptability in the future in the country. The impact of climate change on heat index risk in Iran is significant in the future. To cope with this crucial situation, developing early warning systems and health care strategies to deal with population growth and remarkable socio-economic features in future is essential.

Abrupt climate change: Past, present and the search for precursors as an aid to predicting events in the future (Hans Oeschger Medal Lecture)

Science.gov (United States)

Mayewski, Paul Andrew

2016-04-01

the state of atmospheric circulation in the Southern Hemisphere that will result as a consequence of greenhouse gas rise and "healing" of the Antarctic ozone hole (Mayewski et al., 2015). Climate change perspective gained from instrumentally calibrated ice core and other past climate proxies is essential to the construction of plausible scenarios for future climate and actionable planning. More ACC events are in our future and the early manifestation of these events is apparent in the emerging change in the severity and frequency of extreme events. Searching for a precursor for ACC events is a major challenge for the scientific community and humanity. For the climate community to undertake this challenge it is necessary to investigate both past and present sub-seasonal and longer extreme events associated with past D-O and ACC events and their impact on societies. Examples of sub-seasonal scale investigation of these events will be included in the presentation. Mayewski, P.A., Sneed, S.B., Birkel, S.D., Kurbatov, A.V. and Maasch, Holocene warming marked by longer summers and reduced storm frequency around Greenland, Journal of Quaternary Science, 267-8179. DOl: I 0.1002/jqs.2684, 2013. Mayewski, P.A., Bertler, N., Birkel, S., Bracegirdle, T., Carleton, A., England, M., Goodwin, I., Kang, J-H., Mayewski, P., Russell, J., Schneider, S., Turner, J. and Vellicogna, I., 2015, Potential for Southern Hemisphere climate surprises, Journal of Quaternary Science (Rapid Communication) 30, 391-395, DOI: 10.1002/jqs.2794.

Underlying Event and B-Hadron Decays in $t\\overline{t}$ Events

CERN Document Server

INSPIRE-00175000

2014-01-01

We present exploratory studies of the underlying event activity and of fragmentation and hadronization of b quarks using $t\\overline{t}$ candidate events in proton-proton collision data acquired by the CMS experiment. We reconstruct charm mesons in fully charged decay channels from the reconstructed tracks associated with the hadronization of b quarks from the top decay, and study their kinematics relative to the mother jet. A good agreement is found using MadGraph plus the Pythia 6 Tune Z2* simulation. The effects predicted by alternative settings and generators for the characterization of the underlying event are also explored. These results are expected to contribute in the future to more precise measurements in the top quark sector in particular of the top quark mass by either constraining systematic uncertainties related to the modeling of the underlying event in $t\\overline{t}$ events or by paving the way for alternative mass measurement methods.

Designing Technology for Active Spectator Experiences at Sporting Events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Veerasawmy, Rune; Ludvigsen, Martin

2010-01-01

This paper explores the active spectator experience at sporting events, by presenting and reflecting upon a design experiment carried out at a number of football1 events. The initial hypothesis of the design process, leading to the design experiment has been that the spectator experience is not m......This paper explores the active spectator experience at sporting events, by presenting and reflecting upon a design experiment carried out at a number of football1 events. The initial hypothesis of the design process, leading to the design experiment has been that the spectator experience...... is not merely an experience of receiving and consuming entertainment. It is also heavily reliant on the active participation of the spectator in creating the atmosphere of the entire event. The BannerBattle experiment provides interactive technology in sport arenas with a form of interaction based on existing...

Goiania radiation accident: activities carried out and lessons learned based on personal experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silva, F.C.A. da

2017-01-01

Goiânia Radiological Accident, on September 13, 1987, with a radioactive source of cesium-137 with 50.9 TBq, used in radiotherapy, is one of the most important accidents in the scientific area, representing a milestone for all workers in the areas of radiation protection and radiological emergency that worked during the event. A personal view of the Goiânia Radiological Accident is presented, showing some activities carried out in contaminated areas and lessons learned based on own experience during the event

Do strategic processes contribute to the specificity of future simulation in depression?

Science.gov (United States)

Addis, Donna Rose; Hach, Sylvia; Tippett, Lynette J

2016-06-01

The tendency to generate overgeneral past or future events is characteristic of individuals with a history of depression. Although much research has investigated the contribution of rumination and avoidance to the reduced specificity of past events, comparatively little research has examined (1) whether the specificity of future events is differentially reduced in depression and (2) the role of executive functions in this phenomenon. Our study aimed to redress this imbalance. Participants with either current or past experience of depressive symptoms ('depressive group'; N = 24) and matched controls ('control group'; N = 24) completed tests of avoidance, rumination, and executive functions. A modified Autobiographical Memory Test was administered to assess the specificity of past and future events. The depressive group were more ruminative and avoidant than controls, but did not exhibit deficits in executive function. Although overall the depressive group generated significantly fewer specific events than controls, this reduction was driven by a significant group difference in future event specificity. Strategic retrieval processes were correlated with both past and future specificity, and predictive of the future specificity, whereas avoidance and rumination were not. Our findings demonstrate that future simulation appears to be particularly vulnerable to disruption in individuals with current or past experience of depressive symptoms, consistent with the notion that future simulation is more cognitively demanding than autobiographical memory retrieval. Moreover, our findings suggest that even subtle changes in executive functions such as strategic processes may impact the ability to imagine specific future events. Future simulation may be particularly vulnerable to executive dysfunction in individuals with current/previous depressive symptoms, with evidence of a differential reduction in the specificity of future events. Strategic retrieval abilities were

Targeted Drug-Carrying Bacteriophages as Antibacterial Nanomedicines▿

Science.gov (United States)

Yacoby, Iftach; Bar, Hagit; Benhar, Itai

2007-01-01

While the resistance of bacteria to traditional antibiotics is a major public health concern, the use of extremely potent antibacterial agents is limited by their lack of selectivity. As in cancer therapy, antibacterial targeted therapy could provide an opportunity to reintroduce toxic substances to the antibacterial arsenal. A desirable targeted antibacterial agent should combine binding specificity, a large drug payload per binding event, and a programmed drug release mechanism. Recently, we presented a novel application of filamentous bacteriophages as targeted drug carriers that could partially inhibit the growth of Staphylococcus aureus bacteria. This partial success was due to limitations of drug-loading capacity that resulted from the hydrophobicity of the drug. Here we present a novel drug conjugation chemistry which is based on connecting hydrophobic drugs to the phage via aminoglycoside antibiotics that serve as solubility-enhancing branched linkers. This new formulation allowed a significantly larger drug-carrying capacity of the phages, resulting in a drastic improvement in their performance as targeted drug-carrying nanoparticles. As an example for a potential systemic use for potent agents that are limited for topical use, we present antibody-targeted phage nanoparticles that carry a large payload of the hemolytic antibiotic chloramphenicol connected through the aminoglycoside neomycin. We demonstrate complete growth inhibition toward the pathogens Staphylococcus aureus, Streptococcus pyogenes, and Escherichia coli with an improvement in potency by a factor of ∼20,000 compared to the free drug. PMID:17404004

Exploring the content and quality of episodic future simulations in semantic dementia.

Science.gov (United States)

Irish, Muireann; Addis, Donna Rose; Hodges, John R; Piguet, Olivier

2012-12-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is a progressive neurodegenerative disorder characterised by the amodal loss of semantic knowledge in the context of relatively preserved recent episodic memory. Recent studies have demonstrated that despite relatively intact episodic memory the capacity for future simulation in SD is profoundly impaired, resulting in an asymmetric profile where past retrieval is significantly better than future simulation (referred to as a past>future effect). Here, we sought to identify the origins of this asymmetric profile by conducting a fine-grained analysis of the contextual details provided during past retrieval and future simulation in SD. Participants with SD (n=14), Alzheimer's disease (n=11), and healthy controls (n=14) had previously completed an experimental past-future interview in which they generated three past events from the previous year, and three future events in the next year, and provided subjective qualitative ratings of vividness, emotional valence, emotional intensity, task difficulty, and personal significance for each event described. Our results confirmed the striking impairment for future simulation in SD, despite a relative preservation of past episodic retrieval. Examination of the contextual details provided for past memories and future simulations revealed significant impairments irrespective of contextual detail type for future simulations in SD, and demonstrated that the future thinking deficit in this cohort was driven by a marked decline in the provision of internal (episodic) event details. In contrast with this past>future effect for internal event details, SD patients displayed a future>past effect for external (non-episodic) event details. Analyses of the qualitative ratings provided for past and future events indicated that SD patients' phenomenological experience did not differ between temporal conditions. Our findings underscore the fact that successful extraction of episodic elements from the past is not

Maximum Redshift of Gravitational Wave Merger Events

Science.gov (United States)

Koushiappas, Savvas M.; Loeb, Abraham

2017-12-01

Future generations of gravitational wave detectors will have the sensitivity to detect gravitational wave events at redshifts far beyond any detectable electromagnetic sources. We show that if the observed event rate is greater than one event per year at redshifts z ≥40 , then the probability distribution of primordial density fluctuations must be significantly non-Gaussian or the events originate from primordial black holes. The nature of the excess events can be determined from the redshift distribution of the merger rate.

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schellen, H.L.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Blades, N.

2014-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Hygrothermal modelling of flooding events within historic buildings

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huijbregts, Z.; Schijndel, van A.W.M.; Schellen, H.L.; Blades, N.; Mahdavi, A.; Mertens, B.

2013-01-01

Flooding events pose a high risk to valuable monumental buildings and their interiors. Due to higher river discharges and sea level rise, flooding events may occur more often in future. Hygrothermal building simulation models can be applied to investigate the impact of a flooding event on the

Episodic and Semantic Memory Contribute to Familiar and Novel Episodic Future Thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tong; Yue, Tong; Huang, Xi Ting

2016-01-01

Increasing evidence indicates that episodic future thinking (EFT) relies on both episodic and semantic memory; however, event familiarity may importantly affect the extent to which episodic and semantic memory contribute to EFT. To test this possibility, two behavioral experiments were conducted. In Experiment 1, we directly compared the proportion of episodic and semantic memory used in an EFT task. The results indicated that more episodic memory was used when imagining familiar future events compared with novel future events. Conversely, significantly more semantic memory was used when imagining novel events compared with familiar events. Experiment 2 aimed to verify the results of Experiment 1. In Experiment 2, we found that familiarity moderated the effect of priming the episodic memory system on EFT; particularly, it increased the time required to construct a standard familiar episodic future event, but did not significantly affect novel episodic event reaction time. Collectively, these findings support the hypothesis that event familiarity importantly moderates episodic and semantic memory's contribution to EFT.

Analysis of extreme events

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Khuluse, S

2009-04-01

Full Text Available ) determination of the distribution of the damage and (iii) preparation of products that enable prediction of future risk events. The methodology provided by extreme value theory can also be a powerful tool in risk analysis...

The neural basis of temporal order processing in past and future thought.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Jeunehomme, Olivier; Majerus, Steve; Bastin, Christine; Salmon, Eric

2015-01-01

Although growing evidence has shown that remembering the past and imagining the future recruit a common core network of frontal-parietal-temporal regions, the extent to which these regions contribute to the temporal dimension of autobiographical thought remains unclear. In this fMRI study, we focused on the event-sequencing aspect of time and examined whether ordering past and future events involve common neural substrates. Participants had to determine which of two past (or future) events occurred (or would occur) before the other, and these order judgments were compared with a task requiring to think about the content of the same past or future events. For both past and future events, we found that the left posterior hippocampus was more activated when establishing the order of events, whereas the anterior hippocampus was more activated when representing their content. Aside from the hippocampus, most of the brain regions that were activated when thinking about temporal order (notably the intraparietal sulcus, dorsolateral pFC, dorsal anterior cingulate, and visual cortex) lied outside the core network and may reflect the involvement of controlled processes and visuospatial imagery to locate events in time. Collectively, these findings suggest (a) that the same processing operations are engaged for ordering past events and planned future events in time, (b) that anterior and posterior portions of the hippocampus are involved in processing different aspects of autobiographical thought, and (c) that temporal order is not necessarily an intrinsic property of memory or future thought but instead requires additional, controlled processes.

Freight economic vulnerabilities due to flooding events.

Science.gov (United States)

2016-12-01

Extreme weather events, and flooding in particular, have been occurring more often and with increased severity over the past decade, and there is reason to expect this trend will continue in the future due to a changing climate. Flooding events can u...

Landslide and Tsunami in Karrat Fjord, Greenland, 2017; the Event, the Response and the Future

Science.gov (United States)

Langley, K.; Mätzler, E.; Barba, M.; Bojesen, M. H.; Caduff, R.; O'Cofaigh, C.; Dehls, J. F.; 1, G. W. G.; Glimsdal, S.; Harbitz, C. B.; Hermanns, R. L.; Kaab, A.; Kibenich, B.; Kvistedal, Y.; Langeland, H.; Larsen, Y.; Løvholt, F.; Lynett, P. J.; Morin, P. J.; Odermatt, L.; Rignot, E. J.; Sparrevik, P.; Wiesmann, A.; Willis, M.; Zinglersen, K. B.

2017-12-01

On the evening of 17 June 2017, a landslide released from a rock slope in the Karrat Fjord, West Greenland. A section 800 m in breadth detached from an elevation of 1000 m a.s.l. and plunged into the fjord below causing a tsunami. The result was loss of life and injury, devastation and evacuation of local villages, and the revelation that the mountain side is unstable in other places. The humanitarian effort, both locally and international to ease the situation for locals has been outstanding. Here we describe how the sequence of events surrounding the landslide unfolded and, thanks to the rapid response and cooperation by a multi-disciplinary, international team of geoscientists, crucial information could be provided to the Greenlandic authorities that supported and aided decision making. Photography and video from the first response teams showed the path of the landslide. Initial analysis of optical (Planet Cubesat constellation, Sentinel-2), SAR (Sentinel-1) and photogrammetric data from before and after the event confirmed the location of the landslide and the area that had detached. By extending the time series of Sentinel-1 data, it was possible to show that the section had been active since March 2017 with displacement accelerating towards failure. The new ArcticDEM was used to give an estimate of area and volume displacement in the main slide. The area where material was lost covered 760 x103 m2 and amounted to a displaced volume of >50 mio m3. These approaches all identified other parts of the mountain side that are in motion. Tsunami modelling was used to predict the on land inundation with simulations based on the landslide dimensions and a bathymetry model from multi beam surveys. The model results matched extremely well with reconstructed run-up heights manually interpreted from video and photographic footage and seismic analyses. For optimizing the guidance of the Greenlandic authorities, all results and experience from the many involved scientists

Future perspective and healthy lifestyle choices in adulthood.

Science.gov (United States)

Tasdemir-Ozdes, Aylin; Strickland-Hughes, Carla M; Bluck, Susan; Ebner, Natalie C

2016-09-01

Regardless of age, making healthy lifestyle choices is prudent. Despite that, individuals of all ages sometimes have difficulty choosing the healthy option. We argue that individuals' view of the future and position in the life span affects their current lifestyle choices. We capture the multidimensionality of future thinking by assessing 3 types of future perspective. Younger and older men and women (N = 127) reported global future time perspective, future health perspective, and perceived importance of future health-related events. They also rated their likelihood of making healthy lifestyle choices. As predicted, older participants indicated greater intention to make healthy choices in their current life than did younger participants. Compared to younger participants, older participants reported shorter global future time perspective and anticipated worse future health but perceived future health-related events as more important. Having a positive view of one's future health and seeing future health-related events as important were related to greater intention to make healthy lifestyle choices, but greater global future time perspective was not directly related to healthy choices. However, follow-up analyses suggested that greater global future time perspective indirectly affected healthy choices via a more positive view of future health. None of these relations were moderated by age. Individuals' perspective on the future is shown to be an important multidimensional construct affecting everyday healthy lifestyle choices for both younger and older adults. Implications for encouraging healthy choices across the adult life span are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

Carrying capacity of U.S. agricultural land: Ten diet scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christian J. Peters

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Strategies for environmental sustainability and global food security must account for dietary change. Using a biophysical simulation model we calculated human carrying capacity under ten diet scenarios. The scenarios included two reference diets based on actual consumption and eight “Healthy Diet” scenarios that complied with nutritional recommendations but varied in the level of meat content. We considered the U.S. agricultural land base and accounted for losses, processing conversions, livestock feed needs, suitability of land for crops or grazing, and land productivity. Annual per capita land requirements ranged from 0.13 to 1.08 ha person-1 year-1 across the ten diet scenarios. Carrying capacity varied from 402 to 807 million persons; 1.3 to 2.6 times the 2010 U.S. population. Carrying capacity was generally higher for scenarios with less meat and highest for the lacto-vegetarian diet. However, the carrying capacity of the vegan diet was lower than two of the healthy omnivore diet scenarios. Sensitivity analysis showed that carrying capacity estimates were highly influenced by starting assumptions about the proportion of cropland available for cultivated cropping. Population level dietary change can contribute substantially to meeting future food needs, though ongoing agricultural research and sustainable management practices are still needed to assure sufficient production levels.

Sudden Event Recognition: A Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohd Asyraf Zulkifley

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Event recognition is one of the most active research areas in video surveillance fields. Advancement in event recognition systems mainly aims to provide convenience, safety and an efficient lifestyle for humanity. A precise, accurate and robust approach is necessary to enable event recognition systems to respond to sudden changes in various uncontrolled environments, such as the case of an emergency, physical threat and a fire or bomb alert. The performance of sudden event recognition systems depends heavily on the accuracy of low level processing, like detection, recognition, tracking and machine learning algorithms. This survey aims to detect and characterize a sudden event, which is a subset of an abnormal event in several video surveillance applications. This paper discusses the following in detail: (1 the importance of a sudden event over a general anomalous event; (2 frameworks used in sudden event recognition; (3 the requirements and comparative studies of a sudden event recognition system and (4 various decision-making approaches for sudden event recognition. The advantages and drawbacks of using 3D images from multiple cameras for real-time application are also discussed. The paper concludes with suggestions for future research directions in sudden event recognition.

Carrying Capacity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schroll, Henning; Andersen, Jan; Kjærgård, Bente

2012-01-01

A spatial planning act was introduced inIndonesia 1992 and renewed in 2008. It emphasised the planning role of decentralised authorities. The spatial planning act covers both spatial and environmental issues. It defines the concept of carrying capacity and includes definitions of supportive....../cities. Four different sectors (water, food production, waste, and forests) were selected as core areas for decentralised spatial planning. Indicators for SCC and ACC were identified and assessed with regard to relevance and quantifiability. For each of the indicators selected, a legal threshold or guiding...... was introduced inIndonesia 1992 and renewed in 2008. It emphasised the planning role of decentralised authorities. The spatial planning act covers both spatial and environmental issues. It defines the concept of carrying capacity and includes definitions of supportive carrying capacity (SCC) and assimilative...

Motivated encoding selectively promotes memory for future inconsequential semantically-related events.

Science.gov (United States)

Oyarzún, Javiera P; Packard, Pau A; de Diego-Balaguer, Ruth; Fuentemilla, Lluis

2016-09-01

Neurobiological models of long-term memory explain how memory for inconsequential events fades, unless these happen before or after other relevant (i.e., rewarding or aversive) or novel events. Recently, it has been shown in humans that retrospective and prospective memories are selectively enhanced if semantically related events are paired with aversive stimuli. However, it remains unclear whether motivating stimuli, as opposed to aversive, have the same effect in humans. Here, participants performed a three phase incidental encoding task where one semantic category was rewarded during the second phase. A memory test 24h after, but not immediately after encoding, revealed that memory for inconsequential items was selectively enhanced only if items from the same category had been previously, but not subsequently, paired with rewards. This result suggests that prospective memory enhancement of reward-related information requires, like previously reported for aversive memories, of a period of memory consolidation. The current findings provide the first empirical evidence in humans that the effects of motivated encoding are selectively and prospectively prolonged over time. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Carotid Artery End-Diastolic Velocity and Future Cerebro-Cardiovascular Events in Asymptomatic High Risk Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Hyemoon; Jung, Young Hak; Kim, Ki-Hyun; Kim, Jong-Youn; Min, Pil-Ki; Yoon, Young Won; Lee, Byoung Kwon; Hong, Bum-Kee; Rim, Se-Joong; Kwon, Hyuck Moon; Choi, Eui-Young

2016-01-01

Prognostic value of additional carotid Doppler evaluations to carotid intima-media thickness (IMT) and plaque has not been completely evaluated. A total of 1119 patients with risk factors for, but without, overt coronary artery disease (CAD), who underwent both carotid ultrasound and Doppler examination were included in the present study. Parameters of interest included peak systolic and end-diastolic velocities, resistive indices of the carotid arteries, IMT, and plaque measurements. The primary end-point was all-cause cerebro-cardiovascular events (CVEs) including acute myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization therapy, heart failure admission, stroke, and cardiovascular death. Model 1 covariates comprised age and sex; Model 2 also included hypertension, diabetes and smoking; Model 3 also had use of aspirin and statin; and Model 4 also included IMT and plaque. The mean follow-up duration was 1386±461 days and the mean age of the study population was 60±12 years. Amongst 1119 participants, 43% were women, 57% had a history of hypertension, and 23% had diabetes. During follow-up, 6.6% of patients experienced CVEs. Among carotid Doppler parameters, average common carotid artery end-diastolic velocity was the independent predictor for future CVEs after adjustments for all models variables (HR 0.95 per cm/s, 95% confident interval 0.91-0.99, p=0.034 in Model 4) and significantly increased the predictive value of Model 4 (global χ(2)=59.0 vs. 62.8, p=0.029). Carotid Doppler measurements in addition to IMT and plaque evaluation are independently associated with future CVEs in asymptomatic patients at risk for CAD.

Empirical Evidence on Time-Varying Hedging Effectiveness of Emissions Allowances under Departures from the Cost-of-Carry Theory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kai Chang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Under departures from the cost-of-carry theory, traded spot prices and conditional volatility disturbed from futures market have significant impacts on futures price of emissions allowances, and then we propose time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness estimation using ECM-GARCH model. Our empirical results show that conditional variance, conditional covariance, and their correlation between between spot and futures prices exhibit time-varying trends. Conditional volatility of spot prices, conditional volatility disturbed from futures market, and conditional correlation of market noises implied from spot and futures markets have significant effects on time-varying hedge ratios and hedging effectiveness. In the immature emissions allowances market, market participants optimize portfolio sizes between spot and futures assets using historical market information and then achieve higher risk reduction of assets portfolio revenues; accordingly, we can obtain better hedging effectiveness through time-varying hedge ratios with departures from the cost-of-carry theory.

Forecasting of integral parameters of solar cosmic ray events according to initial characteristics of an event

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Belovskij, M.N.; Ochelkov, Yu.P.

1981-01-01

The forecasting method for an integral proton flux of solar cosmic rays (SCR) based on the initial characteristics of the phe-- nomenon is proposed. The efficiency of the method is grounded. The accuracy of forecasting is estimated and the retrospective forecasting of real events is carried out. The parameters of the universal function describing the time progress of the SCR events are pre-- sented. The proposed method is suitable for forecasting practically all the SCR events. The timeliness of the given forecasting is not worse than that of the forecasting based on utilization of the SCR propagation models [ru

A Comparison of Preschoolers' Memory, Knowledge, and Anticipation of Events

Science.gov (United States)

Quon, Elizabeth; Atance, Cristina M.

2010-01-01

This study examined the development of the episodic and semantic memory systems, with an emphasis on the emergence of the two aspects of the former: episodic memory (the ability to re-experience a past event) and episodic future thinking (the ability to pre-experience a future event). Three-, 4-, and 5-year olds were randomly assigned to one of…

Event horizon image within black hole shadow

OpenAIRE

Dokuchaev, V. I.; Nazarova, N. O.

2018-01-01

The external border of the black hole shadow is washed out by radiation from matter plunging into black hole and approaching the event horizon. This effect will crucially influence the results of future observations by the Event Horizon Telescope. We show that gravitational lensing of the luminous matter plunging into black hole provides the event horizon visualization within black hole shadow. The lensed image of the event horizon is formed by the last highly red-shifted photons emitted by t...

The behavior of crude oil spot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements: An event study perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Demirer, Riza; Kutan, Ali M.

2010-01-01

This paper examines the informational efficiency of crude oil spot and futures markets with respect to OPEC conference and U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) announcements. We employ the event study methodology to examine the abnormal returns in crude oil spot and futures markets around OPEC conference and SPR announcement dates between 1983 and 2008. Our findings regarding OPEC announcements indicate an asymmetry in that only OPEC production cut announcements yield a statistically significant impact with the impact diminishing for longer maturities. We also find that the persistence of returns following OPEC production cut announcements creates substantial excess returns to investors who take long positions on the day following the end of OPEC conferences. In the case of SPR announcements, we find that the government's use of this program initiates a short-run market reaction following the announcement date. Furthermore, our tests of cumulative abnormal returns suggest that the market reacts efficiently to SPR announcements providing support for the use of the strategic reserves as a tool to stabilize the oil market. Our findings have significant policy implications for investors and are useful in designing effective energy policy strategies.

TECHNOLOGY OF EDUCATIONAL EVENTS DESIGNING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. V. Volkova

2017-01-01

a compulsory one for design competence formation of a future teacher. Obviously, training in design only during classroom activities without participation of children is impossible. The involvement of future teachers into joint activity with children on development and implementation of projects can turn routine school actions into educational events, to create real conditions for improvement of quality of preparation of students of pedagogical higher education institutions.

Manufacturing plant performance evaluation by discrete event simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rosli Darmawan; Mohd Rasid Osman; Rosnah Mohd Yusuff; Napsiah Ismail; Zulkiflie Leman

2002-01-01

A case study was conducted to evaluate the performance of a manufacturing plant using discrete event simulation technique. The study was carried out on animal feed production plant. Sterifeed plant at Malaysian Institute for Nuclear Technology Research (MINT), Selangor, Malaysia. The plant was modelled base on the actual manufacturing activities recorded by the operators. The simulation was carried out using a discrete event simulation software. The model was validated by comparing the simulation results with the actual operational data of the plant. The simulation results show some weaknesses with the current plant design and proposals were made to improve the plant performance. (Author)

Assimilating the Future for Better Forecasts and Earlier Warnings

Science.gov (United States)

Du, H.; Wheatcroft, E.; Smith, L. A.

2016-12-01

Multi-model ensembles have become popular tools to account for some of the uncertainty due to model inadequacy in weather and climate simulation-based predictions. The current multi-model forecasts focus on combining single model ensemble forecasts by means of statistical post-processing. Assuming each model is developed independently or with different primary target variables, each is likely to contain different dynamical strengths and weaknesses. Using statistical post-processing, such information is only carried by the simulations under a single model ensemble: no advantage is taken to influence simulations under the other models. A novel methodology, named Multi-model Cross Pollination in Time, is proposed for multi-model ensemble scheme with the aim of integrating the dynamical information regarding the future from each individual model operationally. The proposed approach generates model states in time via applying data assimilation scheme(s) to yield truly "multi-model trajectories". It is demonstrated to outperform traditional statistical post-processing in the 40-dimensional Lorenz96 flow. Data assimilation approaches are originally designed to improve state estimation from the past to the current time. The aim of this talk is to introduce a framework that uses data assimilation to improve model forecasts at future time (not to argue for any one particular data assimilation scheme). Illustration of applying data assimilation "in the future" to provide early warning of future high-impact events is also presented.

Mobile energy sharing futures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Worgan, Paul; Knibbe, Jarrod; Plasencia, Diego Martinez

2016-01-01

We foresee a future where energy in our mobile devices can be shared and redistributed to suit our current task needs. Many of us are beginning to carry multiple mobile devices and we seek to re-evaluate the traditional view of a mobile device as only accepting energy. In our vision, we can...... sharing futures....

Conditional and future tense impairment in non-fluent aphasia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rofes, Adrià; Bastiaanse, Roelien; Martínez-Ferreiro, Silvia

2014-01-01

Background:Morphological errors of tense and agreement are salient in agrammatic aphasia. The PADILIH predicts impairments in discourse linking that translate to greater difficulties in referring to a past event time than to a future or a present event time. In Catalan, the Periphrastic conditional...... between verb forms that refer to an irrealis future event (Simple conditional and Future). We also assessed whether problems in time reference extend to individuals with non-fluent aphasia that are not typical agrammatic Broca aphasia. Methods & Procedures:A sentence completion task that included 60...... sentences (20 per type) of equal length in a Conditional structure (if-sentences) was designed. We tested three sentence types: Periphrastic conditional, Simple conditional and Future. The task was administered to nine participants with non-fluent aphasia and nine age-matched non-brain-damaged participants...

The ATLAS event filter

CERN Document Server

Beck, H P; Boissat, C; Davis, R; Duval, P Y; Etienne, F; Fede, E; Francis, D; Green, P; Hemmer, F; Jones, R; MacKinnon, J; Mapelli, Livio P; Meessen, C; Mommsen, R K; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Nacasch, R; Negri, A; Pinfold, James L; Polesello, G; Qian, Z; Rafflin, C; Scannicchio, D A; Stanescu, C; Touchard, F; Vercesi, V

1999-01-01

An overview of the studies for the ATLAS Event Filter is given. The architecture and the high level design of the DAQ-1 prototype is presented. The current status if the prototypes is briefly given. Finally, future plans and milestones are given. (11 refs).

Solar Energetic Particle Event Risks for Future Human Missions within the Inner Heliosphere

Science.gov (United States)

Over, S.; Ford, J.

2017-12-01

As astronauts travel beyond low-Earth orbit (LEO), space weather research will play a key role in determining risks from space radiation. Of interest are the rare, large solar energetic particle (SEP) events that can cause significant medical effects during flight. Historical SEP data were analyzed from the Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellites (GOES) program covering the time period of 1986 to 2016 for SEP events. The SEP event data were combined with a Monte Carlo approach to develop a risk model to determine maximum expected doses for missions within the inner heliosphere. Presented here are results from risk assessments for proposed Mars transits as compared to a geostationary Earth-bound mission. Overall, the greatest risk was for the return from Mars with a Venus swing-by, due to the additional transit length and decreased distance from the Sun as compared to traditional Hohmann transfers. The overall results do not indicate that the effects of SEP events alone would prohibit these missions based on current radiation limits alone, but the combination of doses from SEP events and galactic cosmic radiation may be significant, and should be considered in all phases of mission design.

Human Performance Event Database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trager, E. A.

1998-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to describe several aspects of a Human Performance Event Database (HPED) that is being developed by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. These include the background, the database structure and basis for the structure, the process for coding and entering event records, the results of preliminary analyses of information in the database, and plans for the future. In 1992, the Office for Analysis and Evaluation of Operational Data (AEOD) within the NRC decided to develop a database for information on human performance during operating events. The database was needed to help classify and categorize the information to help feedback operating experience information to licensees and others. An NRC interoffice working group prepared a list of human performance information that should be reported for events and the list was based on the Human Performance Investigation Process (HPIP) that had been developed by the NRC as an aid in investigating events. The structure of the HPED was based on that list. The HPED currently includes data on events described in augmented inspection team (AIT) and incident investigation team (IIT) reports from 1990 through 1996, AEOD human performance studies from 1990 through 1993, recent NRR special team inspections, and licensee event reports (LERs) that were prepared for the events. (author)

Future planning - utopia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boernke, F.

1978-01-01

Our life develops as the anticipation of future. Everything we wish, hope, plan and carry out and think is or should be related to future and will have its effects in future. The certainty may spread that it is a necessary obligation to learn to find out our actual being more clearly to be able to develop a thinking and acting that is directed to future that has also a total of responsability as its essence. We will later atone for the failed outlooks into future or for only moderate or uncompleted starts of planning. For this reason we should consider that future does not come for its own, not without our demands, not without our acting. Only if our reflection and aspiration, thinking and acting is done with moderate and circumspect sense in the right way it will be a good fundamental for the future. (orig.) [de

The impact of shifting vantage perspective when recalling and imagining positive events.

Science.gov (United States)

Vella, Nicholas C; Moulds, Michelle L

2014-01-01

The vantage perspective from which memories are recalled influences their emotional impact. To date, however, the impact of vantage perspective on the emotions elicited by positive memories and images of positive future events has been minimally explored. We experimentally manipulated the vantage perspective from which a sample of undergraduate students (n =80) recalled positive memories and imagined positive future events. Participants who naturally recalled their positive memories from a field perspective reported decreased vividness and positive affect (i.e., happiness, optimism, hopefulness) when they were instructed to shift to an observer perspective. The same pattern of emotionality ratings was observed when participants' vantage perspective of imagined future events was manipulated. In contrast, shifting participants from observer to field perspective recall of positive memories did not result in changes in ratings of memory-related emotion, although we found an unexpected trend towards reduced vividness. For positive future events, shifting from an observer to a field perspective resulted in decreased vividness but did not lead to any changes in positive emotion. Our findings confirm that vantage perspective plays a key role in determining the emotional impact of positive memories, and demonstrate that this relationship is also evident for images of future positive events.

Russian Symbolism in its quest for the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

E. VOLZHENINA

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Article is devoted to the vision of the future by Russian symbolists: what they were afraid of and what they dreamed about. On the basis of rich journalism heritage of symbolism author analyzed projects of the future proposed by poets, who wrote on the subject most frequently and profoundly: D. S. Merezhkovskij , A. A. Blok, Viach. I. Ivanov, Andrei Belyi. Analysis of each individual project, conceptualized in the best way by D. S. Merezhkovskij, was carried out. Author revealed a range of problems that were conceived by symbolism in its quest for an ideal future: problem “people and intellectuals”, traditional for the Russians by the beginning of 20th century, the role of the artist and art in the future, “the forthcoming ham”, and creating a new man. A comparison of positions on different issues of the symbolists was completed in the article. It was found that the impetus and direction of symbolists’ quest for the future were awoken by their comprehension of the key contradiction of the epoch. In the article this contradiction is described with a ternary opposition “personality—mass—society”. Thus, despite differing views on some problems (e.g. cancellation of problem “people and intellectuals” by D. S. Merezhkovskij, a total understanding of contradiction “personality—mass— society” was common: the future belongs to a free person, transformed, in any event, into a new man. Also, the article discusses the fate of the elements of creative practice of the symbolists. The main conclusion of the author concerned about symbolists’ future projects is that the heritage of symbolism, devoted to the topic, wasn’t assimilated by descendants, while new methods of creative behavior, developed by the symbolists and targeted at a mass audience, have become a part of life.

Desirable and undesirable future thoughts call for different scene construction processes.

Science.gov (United States)

de Vito, S; Neroni, M A; Gamboz, N; Della Sala, S; Brandimonte, M A

2015-01-01

Despite the growing interest in the ability of foreseeing (episodic future thinking), it is still unclear how healthy people construct possible future scenarios. We suggest that different future thoughts require different processes of scene construction. Thirty-five participants were asked to imagine desirable and less desirable future events. Imagining desirable events increased the ease of scene construction, the frequency of life scripts, the number of internal details, and the clarity of sensorial and spatial temporal information. The initial description of general personal knowledge lasted longer in undesirable than in desirable anticipations. Finally, participants were more prone to explicitly indicate autobiographical memory as the main source of their simulations of undesirable episodes, whereas they equally related the simulations of desirable events to autobiographical events or semantic knowledge. These findings show that desirable and undesirable scenarios call for different mechanisms of scene construction. The present study emphasizes that future thinking cannot be considered as a monolithic entity.

Integrated Initiating Event Performance Indicators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

S. A. Eide; Dale M. Rasmuson; Corwin L. Atwood

2005-01-01

The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission Industry Trends Program (ITP) collects and analyses industry-wide data, assesses the safety significance of results, and communicates results to Congress and other stakeholders. This paper outlines potential enhancements in the ITP to comprehensively cover the Initiating Events Cornerstone of Safety. Future work will address other cornerstones of safety. The proposed Tier 1 activity involves collecting data on ten categories of risk-significant initiating events, trending the results, and comparing early performance with prediction limits (allowable numbers of events, above which NRC action may occur). Tier 1 results would be used to monitor industry performance at the level of individual categories of initiating events. The proposed Tier 2 activity involves integrating the information for individual categories of initiating events into a single risk-based indicator, termed the Baseline Risk Index for Initiating Events or BRIIE. The BRIIE would be evaluated yearly and compared against a threshold. BRIIE results would be reported to Congress on a yearly basis

Long-term risk of recurrent vascular events after young stroke: The FUTURE study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rutten-Jacobs, L.C.A.; Maaijwee, N.A.M.M.; Arntz, R.M.; Schoonderwaldt, H.C.; Dorresteijn, L.D.A.; Vlugt, M.J. van der; Dijk, E.J. van; Leeuw, F.E. de

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Long-term data on recurrent vascular events after young stroke are limited. Our objective was to examine the long-term risk of recurrent vascular events after young stroke. METHODS: We prospectively included 724 consecutive patients with a first-ever transient ischemic attack (TIA),

Betting exchanges : the future of sports betting?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koning, Ruud H.; Velzen, B. van

Sports betting and sports have always been strongly connected. Traditionally, these betting markets have been cleared by bookmakers, who accept bets on certain events. These bookmakers carry the risk of paying the amount wagered if the event occurs. Recently, a new type of betting market has

Rheological investigation and simulation of a debris-flow event in the Fella watershed

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. A. Boniello

2010-05-01

Full Text Available To set an approach for the future territorial planning, the Geological Survey of Friuli Venezia Giulia Region, through the researchers of Trieste University, started a program of debris-flow risk analysis using Flo-2D software as tool to delimit the hazardous areas. In the present paper, as a case study, a debris flow, called Fella sx, occurring in a torrent catchment was analyzed. The choice was due to the abundance of information about past events, inundated areas, rain fall, geology and to its representativeness. An initial back-analysis investigation identified a couple of representative rheological parameters. Riverbed samples were collected, sieve analyses were performed and rheological tests were carried out on the fraction finer than 0.063 mm using a rotationally controlled stress rehometer equipped with the serrated parallel plate geometry. The shear dependent behaviour was examined at different concentrations ranging from 33 to 48%, by weight. Viscosity data treatment was performed to determine the most suitable rheological model to provide the best approximation of the debris-flow behaviour. The rheological parameters, derived from experimental data, were used and compared with those obtained through the back-analysis and with the real inundated area. Data obtained through rheological analysis are useful in constructing scenarios of future events where no data for back-analysis are available.

Launch of the "MICE Procurement" website for your future events

CERN Multimedia

The MICE Office team

2014-01-01

The number of MICE (Meeting, Incentive, Conference and Event) requests is on the increase and our hotel offer is constantly being developed.   The MICE Office has decided to create a dedicated website in order to offer the best possible service to its users. This site is accessible from the FP webpage (MICE Procurement) using your NICE login. It gives you access to the list of the establishments which have a contract with CERN, grouped by geographic area/star rating, and all related information. The establishments listed on this website can accommodate your local events, organised by CERN or in partnership with an institution. They were selected following a market survey and as a result of a price enquiry in accordance with CERN's Purchasing Rules. We offer a number of standard packages, but we will try to respond to any specific requirements. On the same site you can also access a longer list of hotels (also accessible via the GS website) for which prices and conditions have been nego...

The scaling of population persistence with carrying capacity does not asymptote in populations of a fish experiencing extreme climate variability.

Science.gov (United States)

White, Richard S A; Wintle, Brendan A; McHugh, Peter A; Booker, Douglas J; McIntosh, Angus R

2017-06-14

Despite growing concerns regarding increasing frequency of extreme climate events and declining population sizes, the influence of environmental stochasticity on the relationship between population carrying capacity and time-to-extinction has received little empirical attention. While time-to-extinction increases exponentially with carrying capacity in constant environments, theoretical models suggest increasing environmental stochasticity causes asymptotic scaling, thus making minimum viable carrying capacity vastly uncertain in variable environments. Using empirical estimates of environmental stochasticity in fish metapopulations, we showed that increasing environmental stochasticity resulting from extreme droughts was insufficient to create asymptotic scaling of time-to-extinction with carrying capacity in local populations as predicted by theory. Local time-to-extinction increased with carrying capacity due to declining sensitivity to demographic stochasticity, and the slope of this relationship declined significantly as environmental stochasticity increased. However, recent 1 in 25 yr extreme droughts were insufficient to extirpate populations with large carrying capacity. Consequently, large populations may be more resilient to environmental stochasticity than previously thought. The lack of carrying capacity-related asymptotes in persistence under extreme climate variability reveals how small populations affected by habitat loss or overharvesting, may be disproportionately threatened by increases in extreme climate events with global warming. © 2017 The Author(s).

Climate change impacts on extreme events in the United States: an uncertainty analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Extreme weather and climate events, such as heat waves, droughts and severe precipitation events, have substantial impacts on ecosystems and the economy. However, future climate simulations display large uncertainty in mean changes. As a result, the uncertainty in future changes ...

Creating an Event: Case “Spring Festival” in Imatra

OpenAIRE

Serous, Alina

2014-01-01

The purpose of the project was to create a new event in Imatra, Finland, and to see how theoretical approach to event management is applied in practice. The event was designed to be public non-profit event for local families. The work was carried out in co-operation with Imitsi, the local association of town businesses, which aims at improving business environment and developing the town centre of Imatra to be a lively place. Theoretical background for the project was gathered using variou...

Mean occurrence frequency and temporal risk analysis of solar particle events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.; Cucinotta, Francis A.; Wilson, John W.

2006-01-01

The protection of astronauts from space radiation is required on future exploratory class and long-duration missions. For the accurate projections of radiation doses, a solar cycle statistical model, which quantifies the progression level within the cycle, has been developed. The resultant future cycle projection is then applied to estimate the mean frequency of solar particle events (SPEs) in the near future using a power law function of sunspot number. Detailed temporal behaviors of the recent large event and two historically large events of the August 1972 SPE and the November 1960 SPE are analyzed for dose-rate and cumulative dose equivalent at sensitive organs. Polyethylene shielded 'storm shelters' inside spacecraft are studied to limit astronauts' total exposure at a sensitive site within 10 cSv from a large event as a potential goal that fulfills the ALARA (as low as reasonably achievable) requirement

The past and the future of Alzheimer’s disease CSF biomarkers – a journey towards validated biochemical tests covering the whole spectra of molecular events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kaj eBlennow

2015-09-01

Full Text Available This paper gives a short review on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF biomarkers for Alzheimer’s disease (AD, from early developments to high-precision validated assays on fully automated lab analyzers. We also discuss developments on novel biomarkers, such as synaptic proteins and Aβ oligomers. Our vision for the future is that assaying a set of biomarkers in a single CSF tube can monitor the whole spectra of AD molecular pathogenic events. CSF biomarkers will have a central position not only for clinical diagnosis, but also for the understanding of the sequence of molecular events in the pathogenic process underlying AD and as tools to monitor the effects of novel drug candidates targeting these different mechanisms.

Stressful life events, vulnerable to stress and depression among ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The present study was carried out to observe the difference between male and female Eritrean students on the basis of stressful life events, vulnerable to stress and depression. Stressful life Events Questionnaire, Vulnerable to Stress Instrument and Beck Depression Scale were administered to gather information. The data ...

Changes in the probability of co-occurring extreme climate events

Science.gov (United States)

Diffenbaugh, N. S.

2017-12-01

Extreme climate events such as floods, droughts, heatwaves, and severe storms exert acute stresses on natural and human systems. When multiple extreme events co-occur, either in space or time, the impacts can be substantially compounded. A diverse set of human interests - including supply chains, agricultural commodities markets, reinsurance, and deployment of humanitarian aid - have historically relied on the rarity of extreme events to provide a geographic hedge against the compounded impacts of co-occuring extremes. However, changes in the frequency of extreme events in recent decades imply that the probability of co-occuring extremes is also changing, and is likely to continue to change in the future in response to additional global warming. This presentation will review the evidence for historical changes in extreme climate events and the response of extreme events to continued global warming, and will provide some perspective on methods for quantifying changes in the probability of co-occurring extremes in the past and future.

Event visualization in ATLAS

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00211497; The ATLAS collaboration; Boudreau, Joseph; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Martyniuk, Alex; Moyse, Edward; Thomas, Juergen; Waugh, Ben; Yallup, David

2017-01-01

At the beginning, HEP experiments made use of photographical images both to record and store experimental data and to illustrate their findings. Then the experiments evolved and needed to find ways to visualize their data. With the availability of computer graphics, software packages to display event data and the detector geometry started to be developed. Here, an overview of the usage of event display tools in HEP is presented. Then the case of the ATLAS experiment is considered in more detail and two widely used event display packages are presented, Atlantis and VP1, focusing on the software technologies they employ, as well as their strengths, differences and their usage in the experiment: from physics analysis to detector development, and from online monitoring to outreach and communication. Towards the end, the other ATLAS visualization tools will be briefly presented as well. Future development plans and improvements in the ATLAS event display packages will also be discussed.

Future Savvy

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gordon, Adam

There's no shortage of predictions available to organizations looking to anticipate and profit from future events or trends. Apparently helpful forecasts are ubiquitous in everyday communications such as newspapers and business magazines, and in specialized sources such as government and think......-tank forecasts, consultant reports, and stock-market guides. These resources are crucial, but they are also of very mixed quality. How can decision-makers know which predictions to take seriously, which to be wary of, and which to throw out entirely? Future Savvy provides analytical filters to judging predictive...... systematic "forecast filtering" to reveal strengths and weakness in the predictions they face. Future Savvy empowers both business and policy/government decision-makers to use forecasts wisely and so improve their judgment in anticipating opportunities, avoiding threats, and managing uncertainty....

Buffer of Events as a Markovian Process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berdugo, J.; Casaus, J.; Mana, C.

2001-01-01

In Particle and Asro-Particle Physics experiments, the events which get trough the detectors are read and processes on-line before they are stored for a more detailed processing and future Physics analysis. Since the events are read and, usually, processed sequentially, the time involved in these operations can lead to a significant lose of events which is, to some extent, reduced by using buffers. We present an estimate of the optimum buffer size and the fraction of events lost for a simple experimental condition which serves as an introductory example to the use of Markow Chains.(Author)

External events analysis for experimental fusion facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cadwallader, L.C.

1990-01-01

External events are those off-normal events that threaten facilities either from outside or inside the building. These events, such as floods, fires, and earthquakes, are among the leading risk contributors for fission power plants, and the nature of fusion facilities indicates that they may also lead fusion risk. This paper gives overviews of analysis methods, references good analysis guidance documents, and gives design tips for mitigating the effects of floods and fires, seismic events, and aircraft impacts. Implications for future fusion facility siting are also discussed. Sites similar to fission plant sites are recommended. 46 refs

Buffer of Events as a Markovian Process

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Berdugo, J.; Casaus, J.; Mana, C.

2001-07-01

In Particle and Asro-Particle Physics experiments, the events which get trough the detectors are read and processes on-line before they are stored for a more detailed processing and future Physics analysis. Since the events are read and, usually, processed sequentially, the time involved in these operations can lead to a significant lose of events which is, to some extent, reduced by using buffers. We present an estimate of the optimum buffer size and the fraction of events lost for a simple experimental condition which serves as an introductory example to the use of Markow Chains.(Author)

Research on Visual Analysis Methods of Terrorism Events

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Wenyue; Liu, Haiyan; Yu, Anzhu; Li, Jing

2016-06-01

Under the situation that terrorism events occur more and more frequency throughout the world, improving the response capability of social security incidents has become an important aspect to test governments govern ability. Visual analysis has become an important method of event analysing for its advantage of intuitive and effective. To analyse events' spatio-temporal distribution characteristics, correlations among event items and the development trend, terrorism event's spatio-temporal characteristics are discussed. Suitable event data table structure based on "5W" theory is designed. Then, six types of visual analysis are purposed, and how to use thematic map and statistical charts to realize visual analysis on terrorism events is studied. Finally, experiments have been carried out by using the data provided by Global Terrorism Database, and the results of experiments proves the availability of the methods.

Fifteen year's research activities of the INSS Institute of Nuclear Technology and future policy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kimura, Itsuro

2008-01-01

research is described, based on which the importance of returning to the basics to shed light on relevant mechanisms, taking an overall view of composite events, and carrying out proactive maintenance activities is emphasized. A flow chart is presented to describe the research planning and reviewing process, and the active use of research results. Finally, a policy for future research on the following six items is discussed: (1) Strengthening support for improving the safety and reliability of nuclear power plants; (2) Carrying out research projects and using research results in line with the abovementioned safety research approach; (3) Maintaining enough excellent researchers, assigning them appropriately, and bolstering the management of research staff; (4) Constructing a new laboratory focusing on thermal-hydraulics and mechanics research, arranging modern experimental facilities, and creating a superb computing environment; (5) Carrying out cooperation and collaboration with universities and research institutions both in Japan and abroad, and more importantly, assisting the Fukui Strategic Research and Development Plan on Energy; and (6) Reinforcing the Non-Destructive Inspection and Monitoring group, developing seismic technologies, and carrying out the research on measures to reduce workers' radiation exposure. (author)

RoboCup European Championship: Report of the Amsterdam 2000 event

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Groen, F.; van der Hoek, W.; Jonker, P.; Krose, B.; Spoelder, H.J.W.; Stramigioli, S.

2001-01-01

The local organizers of the RoboCup European Championship presents a brief, informal overview of this event with the aim to support organizers of future RoboCup events in the organization and coordination of such a rather complex tournament. The objective was to organize a low cost scientific event

Adaptive constructive processes and the future of memory

OpenAIRE

Schacter, Daniel L.

2012-01-01

Memory serves critical functions in everyday life, but is also prone to error. This article examines adaptive constructive processes, which play a functional role in memory and cognition but can also produce distortions, errors, or illusions. The article describes several types of memory errors that are produced by adaptive constructive processes, and focuses in particular on the process of imagining or simulating events that might occur in one’s personal future. Simulating future events reli...

Projected changes to rain-on-snow events over North America

Science.gov (United States)

Jeong, Dae Il; Sushama, Laxmi

2016-04-01

Rain-on-snow (ROS) events have significant impacts on cold region ecosystems and water-related natural hazards, and therefore it is very important to assess how this hydro-meteorological phenomenon will evolve in a changing climate. This study evaluates the changes in ROS characteristics (i.e., frequency, amounts, and runoff) for the future 2041-2070 period with respect to the current 1976-2005 period over North America using six simulations, based on two Canadian RCMs, driven by two driving GCMs for RCP4.5 and 8.5 emission pathways. Projected changes to extreme runoff caused by the changes of the ROS characteristics are also evaluated. All simulations suggest general increases in ROS days in late autumn, winter, and early spring periods for most Canadian regions and northwestern USA for the future period, due to an increase in rain days in a warmer climate. Increases in the future ROS amounts are projected mainly due to an increase in ROS days, although increases in precipitation intensity also contributes to the future increases. Future ROS runoff is expected to increase more than future ROS amounts during snowmelt months as ROS events usually enhance runoff, given the land state and asociated reduced soil infiltration rate and also due to the faster snowmelt rate occuring during these events. The simulations also show that ROS events usually lead to extreme runoff over most of Canada and north-western and -central USA in the January-May snowmelt months for the current period and these show no significant changes in the future climate. However, the future ROS to total runoff ratio will significantly decrease for western and eastern Canada as well as north-western USA for these months, due to an overall increase of the fraction of direct snowmelt and rainfall generated runoff in a warmer climate. These results indicate the difficulties of flood risk and water resource managements in the future, particularly in Canada and north-western and -central USA, requiring

Experimental study of single event burnout and single event gate rupture in power MOSFETs and IGBT

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang Benqi; Wang Yanping; Geng Bin

2001-01-01

An experimental study was carried out to determine the single event burnout and single event gate rupture sensitivities in power MOSFETs and IGBT which were exposed to heavy ions from 252 Cf source. The test method, test results, a description of observed burnout current waveforms and a discussion of a possible failure mechanism were presented. Current measurements have been performed with a specially designed circuit. The test results include the observed dependence upon applied drain or gate to source bias and versus with external capacitors and limited resistors

Projecting the self into the future in individuals with schizophrenia: a preliminary cross-sectional study.

Science.gov (United States)

Raffard, Stéphane; Bortolon, Catherine; D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Gardes, Jeanne; Gely-Nargeot, Marie-Christine; Capdevielle, Delphine; Van der Linden, Martial

2016-07-01

The ability to project oneself into the future contributes to development and maintenance of a coherent sense of identity. If recent research has revealed that schizophrenia is associated with difficulties envisioning the future, little is known about patients' future self-representations. In this study, 27 participants with schizophrenia and 26 healthy controls were asked to simulate mental representations of plausible and highly significant future events (self-defining future projections, SDFPs) that they anticipate to happen in their personal future. Main results showed that schizophrenia patients had difficulties in reflecting on the broader meaning and implications of imagined future events. In addition, and contrary to our hypothesis, a large majority of SDFPs in schizophrenia patients were positive events, including achievements, relationship, and leisure contents. Interestingly, patients and controls did not differ on the perceived probability that these events will occur in the future. Our results suggest that schizophrenia patients have an exaggerated positive perception of their future selves. Together, these findings lend support to the idea that past and future self-defining representations have both similar and distinct characteristics in schizophrenia.

Climate Change Extreme Events: Meeting the Information Needs of Water Resource Managers

Science.gov (United States)

Quay, R.; Garfin, G. M.; Dominguez, F.; Hirschboeck, K. K.; Woodhouse, C. A.; Guido, Z.; White, D. D.

2013-12-01

Information about climate has long been used by water managers to develop short term and long term plans and strategies for regional and local water resources. Inherent within longer term forecasts is an element of uncertainty, which is particularly evident in Global Climate model results for precipitation. For example in the southwest estimates in the flow of the Colorado River based on GCM results indicate changes from 120% or current flow to 60%. Many water resource managers are now using global climate model down scaled estimates results as indications of potential climate change as part of that planning. They are addressing the uncertainty within these estimates by using an anticipatory planning approach looking at a range of possible futures. One aspect of climate that is important for such planning are estimates of future extreme storm (short term) and drought (long term) events. However, the climate science of future possible changes in extreme events is less mature than general climate change science. At a recent workshop among climate scientists and water managers in the southwest, it was concluded the science of climate change extreme events is at least a decade away from being robust enough to be useful for water managers in their water resource management activities. However, it was proposed that there are existing estimates and records of past flooding and drought events that could be combined with general climate change science to create possible future events. These derived events could be of sufficient detail to be used by water resource managers until such time that the science of extreme events is able to provide more detailed estimates. Based on the results of this workshop and other work being done by the Decision Center for a Desert City at Arizona State University and the Climate Assessment for the Southwest center at University of Arizona., this article will 1) review what are the extreme event data needs of Water Resource Managers in the

Revisiting event horizon finders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cohen, Michael I; Pfeiffer, Harald P; Scheel, Mark A

2009-01-01

Event horizons are the defining physical features of black hole spacetimes, and are of considerable interest in studying black hole dynamics. Here, we reconsider three techniques to find event horizons in numerical spacetimes: integrating geodesics, integrating a surface, and integrating a level-set of surfaces over a volume. We implement the first two techniques and find that straightforward integration of geodesics backward in time is most robust. We find that the exponential rate of approach of a null surface towards the event horizon of a spinning black hole equals the surface gravity of the black hole. In head-on mergers we are able to track quasi-normal ringing of the merged black hole through seven oscillations, covering a dynamic range of about 10 5 . Both at late times (when the final black hole has settled down) and at early times (before the merger), the apparent horizon is found to be an excellent approximation of the event horizon. In the head-on binary black hole merger, only some of the future null generators of the horizon are found to start from past null infinity; the others approach the event horizons of the individual black holes at times far before merger.

Changes in extreme events and the potential impacts on human health.

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, Jesse E; Brown, Claudia Langford; Conlon, Kathryn; Herring, Stephanie; Kunkel, Kenneth E; Lawrimore, Jay; Luber, George; Schreck, Carl; Smith, Adam; Uejio, Christopher

2018-04-01

Extreme weather and climate-related events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, dust storms, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden. More information is needed about the impacts of climate change on public health and economies to effectively plan for and adapt to climate change. This paper describes some of the ways extreme events are changing and provides examples of the potential impacts on human health and infrastructure. It also identifies key research gaps to be addressed to improve the resilience of public health to extreme events in the future. Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socioeconomic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity, and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for change in the future. Some of these events include heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, surges, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local societal and environmental factors that affect disease burden.

Enhancement of thermal photon production in event-by-event hydrodynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chatterjee, Rupa; Holopainen, Hannu; Renk, Thorsten; Eskola, Kari J.

2011-01-01

Thermal photon emission is widely believed to reflect properties of the earliest, hottest evolution stage of the medium created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions. Previous computations of photon emission have been carried out using a hydrodynamical medium description with smooth, averaged initial conditions. Recently, more sophisticated hydrodynamical models that calculate observables by averaging over many evolutions with event-by-event fluctuating initial conditions (ICs) have been developed. Given their direct connection to the early time dynamics, thermal photon emission appears to be an ideal observable to probe fluctuations in the medium initial state. In this work, we demonstrate that including fluctuations in the ICs may lead to an enhancement of the thermal photon yield of about a factor of 2 in the region 2 T <4 GeV/c (where thermal photon production dominates the direct photon yield) compared to a scenario using smooth, averaged ICs. Consequently, a much better agreement with PHENIX data is found. This can be understood in terms of the strong temperature dependence of thermal photon production, translating into a sensitivity to the presence of hotspots in an event and thus establishing thermal photons as a suitable probe to characterize IC fluctuations.

Constructive episodic simulation of the future and the past: distinct subsystems of a core brain network mediate imagining and remembering.

Science.gov (United States)

Addis, Donna Rose; Pan, Ling; Vu, Mai-Anh; Laiser, Noa; Schacter, Daniel L

2009-09-01

Recent neuroimaging studies demonstrate that remembering the past and imagining the future rely on the same core brain network. However, findings of common core network activity during remembering and imagining events and increased activity during future event simulation could reflect the recasting of past events as future events. We experimentally recombined event details from participants' own past experiences, thus preventing the recasting of past events as imagined events. Moreover, we instructed participants to imagine both future and past events in order to disambiguate whether future-event-specific activity found in previous studies is related specifically to prospection or a general demand of imagining episodic events. Using spatiotemporal partial-least-squares (PLS), a conjunction contrast confirmed that even when subjects are required to recombine details into imagined events (and prevented from recasting events), significant neural overlap between remembering and imagining events is evident throughout the core network. However, the PLS analysis identified two subsystems within the core network. One extensive subsystem was preferentially associated with imagining both future and past events. This finding suggests that regions previously associated with future events, such as anterior hippocampus, medial prefrontal cortex and inferior frontal gyrus, support processes general to imagining events rather than specific to prospection. This PLS analysis also identified a subsystem, including hippocampus, parahippocampal gyrus and extensive regions of posterior visual cortex that was preferentially engaged when remembering past events rich in contextual and visuospatial detail.

Korea Microlensing Telescope Network Microlensing Events from 2015: Event-finding Algorithm, Vetting, and Photometry

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, D.-J.; Kim, H.-W.; Hwang, K.-H.; Albrow, M. D.; Chung, S.-J.; Gould, A.; Han, C.; Jung, Y. K.; Ryu, Y.-H.; Shin, I.-G.; Yee, J. C.; Zhu, W.; Cha, S.-M.; Kim, S.-L.; Lee, C.-U.; Lee, D.-J.; Lee, Y.; Park, B.-G.; Pogge, R. W.; The KMTNet Collaboration

2018-02-01

We present microlensing events in the 2015 Korea Microlensing Telescope Network (KMTNet) data and our procedure for identifying these events. In particular, candidates were detected with a novel “completed-event” microlensing event-finder algorithm. The algorithm works by making linear fits to a ({t}0,{t}{eff},{u}0) grid of point-lens microlensing models. This approach is rendered computationally efficient by restricting u 0 to just two values (0 and 1), which we show is quite adequate. The implementation presented here is specifically tailored to the commission-year character of the 2015 data, but the algorithm is quite general and has already been applied to a completely different (non-KMTNet) data set. We outline expected improvements for 2016 and future KMTNet data. The light curves of the 660 “clear microlensing” and 182 “possible microlensing” events that were found in 2015 are presented along with our policy for their public release.

Future Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adli Tıp Uzmanları Derneği ATUD

1996-07-01

Full Text Available I.\t5- Marmara Tıp Günleri 16-19 Eylül 1996, The Marmara Oteli Taksim İstanbul. İletişim: Doç.Dr.Berrak Yeğen PK. 175 Kadıköy Tel: 0216 414 47 36 - 414 47 34 Fax: 0216 414 47 31- 325 72 17 - 418 33 27 II.\tEUROTOX’96 in collaboration with the Spanish Association of Toxicology 22-25 Eylüll996, ALICANTE; SPAIN, Secretariat-. Viajes Hispania, S.A. EUROTOX’96 Congress, Maisonnave, 11\t- 70, E-03003 Alicante (Spain. Tel: +34-C9 6-522-83-93; Fax: +34 (9 6-522-98-88 III.\tTürk Nöropsikiyatri Derneği Ruhsal Travma Günleri 10-\t11 Ekim 1996, Savoy Oteli Taksim İstanbul. İletişim:Doç.Dı.M.Raşit Tükel Türk Nöropsikiyatri Derneği, İ.Ü. İstanbul Tıp Fakültesi Psikiyatri Anabilim Dalı Fax: 0212 631 24 00 IV.\t1996 Annual Meeting: Construction Professional Relations in Contemporary Health Care 15-\t16 Ekim 1996, Royal Sonesta, Boston Massachusetts ASLME, 765 Common Wealth Avenue, 16th Floor, Boston, MA, 02215. Tel: (617 262-4990 Fax: (617 437- 7596 Email: aslme@bu.edu V.\tXXI International Congress of the International Academy of Pathology and 12th World Congress of Academic and Environmental Pathology 20-25 Ekim 1996, BUDAPEST, HUNGARY, Secretariat: XII International Congress of The International Academy of Pathology and 12th World Congress of Academic and Environmental Pathology, 2nd Dept, of Pathology Semmelweis Univ. of Medicine, Ü1İÖİ £t 93-, H 1091 Budapest, Hungary. Tel/Fax: +36-1-215-7591, +36-1-215-6921. VI.\tVII.THMTK, VII. Türkiye Hastane Mütehassısları Uluslararası Katdımlı Tıp Kongresi 26-29 Ekim 1996, Antalya İletişim: THMD Başkanı Dr.Cafer Yıldıran Talimhane, Lamartin Cad. 46/4, Eren Apt. 80090 Taksim İstanbul Tel: (0212 250 45 55 -‘238 09 85 VII.\tI. Ulusal Biyolojik Antropoloji Sempozyumu 30-31 Ekim 1996, Ankara Ankara Üniversitesi Dil ve Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi Farabi salonu İletişim: Prof.Dr.Erksin Güleç A.Ü. Dil ver Tarih-Coğrafya Fakültesi Fizik ve Paleoantropoloji Bölümü 06100 Sıhhiye Ankara. Tel: 0312 310 32 80/ 17 32- 0312 309 37 6l - 0312 310 57 13 Fax: 0312 310 57 13 E mail: egol-k@servis.net.tr. VIII.\tFall School of Evidence Photography 16-\t18 Kasım 1996, Fiesta Inn 2100 S.Priest Drive Tempe Arizona (800 528-6481 (602 967- 1441 EPIC, 600 Main Street, Honesdale, PA 18431. (800 356-3742 Fax: (717 253- 5011. IX.\tIII World Congress of Bioethics “Bioethics in an Interdependent World” 22-24 Kasim 1996, Secreteriat: III World Congress of Bioethics Pacific Center for Health Policy and Ethics. University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA. 90089-0071 USA Tel: (213 740-2541 Faximile: (213 740-5502 http://www.usc.edu/dept/lawtib/bioethics/ world- congress.html X.\tIV. Sosyal Psikiyatri Sempozyumu 7-\t9 Mayıs 1997, Adana İletişim: DoçDr. Yunus Emre Evlice Çukurova Üniversitesi Tıp Fakültesi Psikiyatri ABD. 01330 Balcalı ADANA Tel: 0322- 338 68 57 XI.\tThe XVn Congress of the International Academy of Legal Medicine (IALM 20-23 Ağustos 1997, Dublin, Ireland Secretariat: Prof.J.F.A. Harbison, Office of the State Pathologist and T.C.D./R.C.S.I. Dept. öf Forensic Medicine, 188 Pearse Street, Trinity College, Dublin 2. Ireland. Tel: +353-1-671 9835; Fax: +353-1-677 2694 Ms. Louise Louhgran, Confrence Secretary, Royal College of Surgeons in Ireland, 123 Stephen’s Green, Dublin 2, Ireland. XII.\t6th Congress of ESBRA, European Society of Biomedical Research on Alcoholism 28 Haziran-1 Eylül 1997, STOCKHOLM, SWEDEN, Secretariat: Associate Professor Stefan Borg, Karolinska Institute, Dept, of Neuroscience St Görans Hospital, Adress: Psykiatriska Beroendekliniken S:t Görans sjukhus, Box 12557, S-102 29 Stockholm, Sweden. Tel: +46-8-672-14-51; Fax: +46-8-672-19-04

Event-by-Event Simulations of Early Gluon Fields in High Energy Nuclear Collisions

Science.gov (United States)

Nickel, Matthew; Rose, Steven; Fries, Rainer

2017-09-01

Collisions of heavy ions are carried out at ultra relativistic speeds at the Relativistic Heavy Ion Collider and the Large Hadron Collider to create Quark Gluon Plasma. The earliest stages of such collisions are dominated by the dynamics of classical gluon fields. The McLerran-Venugopalan (MV) model of color glass condensate provides a model for this process. Previous research has provided an analytic solution for event averaged observables in the MV model. Using the High Performance Research Computing Center (HPRC) at Texas A&M, we have developed a C++ code to explicitly calculate the initial gluon fields and energy momentum tensor event by event using the analytic recursive solution. The code has been tested against previously known analytic results up to fourth order. We have also have been able to test the convergence of the recursive solution at high orders in time and studied the time evolution of color glass condensate.

Initiating events identification of the IS process using the master logic diagram

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Nam Chul; Jae, Moo Sung; Yang, Joon Eon

2005-01-01

Hydrogen is very attractive as a future secondary energy carrier considering environmental problems. It is important to produce hydrogen from water by use of carbon free primary energy source. The thermochemical water decomposition cycle is one of the methods for the hydrogen production process from water. Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute (JAERI) has been carrying out an R and D on the IS (iodine.sulfur) process that was first proposed by GA (General Atomic Co.) focusing on demonstration the 'closed-cycle' continuous hydrogen production on developing a feasible and efficient scheme for the HI processing, and on screening and/or developing materials of construction to be used in the corrosive process environment. The successful continuous operation of the IS-process was demonstrated and this process is one of the thermochemical processes, which is the closest to being industrialized. Currently, Korea has also started a research about the IS process and the construction of the IS process system is planned. In this study, for risk analysis of the IS process, initiating events of the IS process are identified by using the Master Logic Diagram (MLD) that is method for initiating event identification

A classification of event sequences in the influence network

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, James Lyons; Knuth, Kevin H.

2017-06-01

We build on the classification in [1] of event sequences in the influence network as respecting collinearity or not, so as to determine in future work what phenomena arise in each case. Collinearity enables each observer to uniquely associate each particle event of influencing with one of the observer's own events, even in the case of events of influencing the other observer. We further classify events as to whether they are spacetime events that obey in the fine-grained case the coarse-grained conditions of [2], finding that Newton's First and Second Laws of motion are obeyed at spacetime events. A proof of Newton's Third Law under particular circumstances is also presented.

A follow-up study of hygiene in catering premises at large-scale events in the United Kingdom.

Science.gov (United States)

Willis, C; Elviss, N; McLauchlin, J

2015-01-01

To investigate food hygiene practices at large events by assessing the microbiological quality of ready-to-eat food, drinking water, food preparation surfaces, cleaning cloths and wristbands worn by food handlers for event security purposes. Over a 7-month period, 1662 samples were collected at 153 events and examined for microbiological contamination. Eight per cent of food samples were of an unsatisfactory quality. A further one per cent contained potentially hazardous levels of human pathogenic bacteria. 27% of water samples, 32% of swabs and 56% of cloths were also unsatisfactory. These results represented an improvement in hygiene compared to a previous study carried out 12 months previously. A fifth of food handler wristbands were contaminated with Enterobacteriaceae, Escherichia coli and/or coagulase-positive staphylococci, with those bands made from fabric being more frequently contaminated than those made from plastic or other materials. This study provides evidence that the food hygiene at large-scale events may have improved. However, there is still a need for continued efforts to maintain an ongoing improvement in cleaning regimes and food hygiene management. This study was part of an ongoing focus on large events in the lead-up to the London 2012 Olympics. Lessons learnt here will be important in the planning of future large events. © 2014 Crown copyright. © 2014 Society for Applied Microbiology This article is Published with the permission of the Controller of HMSO and Queen's Printer for Scotland.

Perception of future goals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ottsen, Christina L.; Berntsen, Dorthe

The current study: a cross-cultural comparison between the Middle East and Scandinavia. Two societies that offer a unique opportunity to examine gender and cultural differences in perception of personal goals. Previous studies show that imagined future events are affected by memories of personal...

From "Thoughts and Prayers" to Practice: Narratives of Faculty Sensemaking during Campus-Carry Policy Enactment

Science.gov (United States)

Cradit, Nathaniel W.

2017-01-01

The 2007 mass shooting at Virginia Tech is one part of a decades-long increase in the frequency of gun violence on U.S. college and university campuses (Drysdale, Modzeleski, & Simons, 2010; Ferraro, 2015). The events at Virginia Tech also served as a catalyst for the spread of so-called "campus-carry" laws, or acts of state policy…

Host Event Based Network Monitoring

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jonathan Chugg

2013-01-01

The purpose of INL’s research on this project is to demonstrate the feasibility of a host event based network monitoring tool and the effects on host performance. Current host based network monitoring tools work on polling which can miss activity if it occurs between polls. Instead of polling, a tool could be developed that makes use of event APIs in the operating system to receive asynchronous notifications of network activity. Analysis and logging of these events will allow the tool to construct the complete real-time and historical network configuration of the host while the tool is running. This research focused on three major operating systems commonly used by SCADA systems: Linux, WindowsXP, and Windows7. Windows 7 offers two paths that have minimal impact on the system and should be seriously considered. First is the new Windows Event Logging API, and, second, Windows 7 offers the ALE API within WFP. Any future work should focus on these methods.

Changes in Convective Rainfall in future climates over Western Europe.

Science.gov (United States)

Gadian, A.; Burton, R.; Blyth, A. M.; Mobbs, S.; Warner, J.; Groves, J.; Holland, G. J.; Bruyere, C. L.; Done, J.; Tye, M. R.; Thielen, J.

2016-12-01

This project aims to analyse extreme convective weather events over the European domain in a future climate scenario using the Weather Research Forecasting model (WRF). Climate models have insufficient resolution to properly simulate small meso-scale precipitation events which are critical in understanding climate change. Use of a weather model is specifically designed to resolve small (and large) scale processes and in particular to be convection permitting. Changes in extreme weather events in the future climate can be represented as small scale processes and regional meso-scale precipitation events. A channel outer domain (D01), with a resolution of 20km at +/-300 N/S and 8km at 680N, drives a one way nested inner domain resolution which is a factor of 5:1 smaller. For calibration purposes, the outer domain is driven at the Northern / Southern boundaries either by ERA-interim or bias corrected data CCSM for 1989-1995. For the future simulations, the outer domain is driven by CCSM data for 2020-2025 and 2030-2035. An initial analysis for the inner domain convection over Western Europe will be presented. This presentation will provide details of the project. An inter-comparison of the simulations driven for 1990-1995 will provide information on the applicability of using the climate data driven results for the analysis of the future years. Initial plots of changes in precipitation over the future decades will focus on the summer precipitation, providing mean and standard deviation changes. The results indicate that the summer months are dryer, the wet events become shorter, with longer dry periods. The peak precipitation for the events does not increase, but the average rainfall and the amount of heavy rain (>7.6mm / hour) does increase. Future plans for use of the data will be discussed. Use the output data to drive the EFAS (European Flood model) to examine the predicted changes in quantity and frequency of severe and hazardous convective rainfall events and

Predictive event modelling in multicenter clinical trials with waiting time to response.

Science.gov (United States)

Anisimov, Vladimir V

2011-01-01

A new analytic statistical technique for predictive event modeling in ongoing multicenter clinical trials with waiting time to response is developed. It allows for the predictive mean and predictive bounds for the number of events to be constructed over time, accounting for the newly recruited patients and patients already at risk in the trial, and for different recruitment scenarios. For modeling patient recruitment, an advanced Poisson-gamma model is used, which accounts for the variation in recruitment over time, the variation in recruitment rates between different centers and the opening or closing of some centers in the future. A few models for event appearance allowing for 'recurrence', 'death' and 'lost-to-follow-up' events and using finite Markov chains in continuous time are considered. To predict the number of future events over time for an ongoing trial at some interim time, the parameters of the recruitment and event models are estimated using current data and then the predictive recruitment rates in each center are adjusted using individual data and Bayesian re-estimation. For a typical scenario (continue to recruit during some time interval, then stop recruitment and wait until a particular number of events happens), the closed-form expressions for the predictive mean and predictive bounds of the number of events at any future time point are derived under the assumptions of Markovian behavior of the event progression. The technique is efficiently applied to modeling different scenarios for some ongoing oncology trials. Case studies are considered. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

DEVELOPMENT AND TESTING OF PROCEDURES FOR CARRYING OUT EMERGENCY PHYSICAL INVENTORY TAKING AFTER DETECTING ANOMALY EVENTS CONCERNING NM SECURITY

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

VALENTE, J.; FISHBONE, L.

2003-01-01

In the State Scientific Center of Russian Federation - Institute of Physics and Power Engineering (SSC RF-IPPE, Obninsk), which is under Minatom jurisdiction, the procedures for carrying out emergency physical inventory taking (EPIT) were developed and tested in cooperation with the Brookhaven National Laboratory (USA). Here the emergency physical inventory taking means the PIT, which is carried out in case of symptoms indicating a possibility of NM loss (theft). Such PIT often requires a verification of attributes and quantitative characteristics for all the NM items located in a specific Material Balance Area (MBA). In order to carry out the exercise, an MBA was selected where many thousands of NM items containing highly enriched uranium are used. Three clients of the computerized material accounting system (CMAS) are installed in this MBA. Labels with unique (within IPPE site) identification numbers in the form of digit combinations and an appropriate bar code have been applied on the NM items, containers and authorized locations. All the data to be checked during the EPIT are stored in the CMAS database. Five variants of anomalies initiating EPIT and requiring different types of activities on EPIT organization are considered. Automatic working places (AWP) were created on the basis of the client computers in order to carry out a large number of measurements within a reasonable time. In addition to a CMAS client computer, the main components of an AWP include a bar-code reader, an electronic scale and an enrichment meter with NaI--detector--the lMCA Inspector (manufactured by the Canberra Company). All these devices work together with a client computer in the on-line mode. Special computer code (Emergency Inventory Software-EIS) was developed. All the algorithms of interaction between the operator and the system, as well as algorithms of data exchange during the measurements and data comparison, are implemented in this software. Registration of detected

Extraction of moments of net-particle event-by-event fluctuations in the CBM experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vovchenko, Volodymyr [Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Taras Shevchenko University, Kyiv (Ukraine); Kisel, Ivan [Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Collaboration: CBM-Collaboration

2016-07-01

The future CBM experiment at FAIR will employ high intensity beams and large acceptance detectors in order to study the properties of the strongly interacting matter produced in heavy-ion collisions at high baryon densities. The search for the conjectured critical point of QCD is one the important tasks. It is predicted from statistical physics that higher moments of event-by-event fluctuations are very sensitive to the proximity of the critical point. This argument is explicitly demonstrated with the van der Waals equation of state. Thus, it was suggested that higher moments of fluctuations of conserved charges can be used as probes for the critical behavior. The statistical convergence of cumulants of different order is explored. The extraction of scaled variance, skewness, and kurtosis of proton distribution from simulated UrQMD events is performed and the efficiency correction described by binomial distribution is accounted for. The validity of this correction is tested with different modelings of the CBM detector response: from binomial distribution with fluctuating event-by-event efficiency to a full-scale GEANT simulation. The obtained results indicate that a more elaborate efficiency correction is needed in order to accurately reconstruct moments of higher orders.

Importance of individual events in temporal networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takaguchi, Taro; Masuda, Naoki; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo

2012-01-01

Records of time-stamped social interactions between pairs of individuals (e.g. face-to-face conversations, e-mail exchanges and phone calls) constitute a so-called temporal network. A remarkable difference between temporal networks and conventional static networks is that time-stamped events rather than links are the unit elements generating the collective behavior of nodes. We propose an importance measure for single interaction events. By generalizing the concept of the advance of events proposed by Kossinets et al (2008 Proc. 14th ACM SIGKDD Int. Conf. on Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining p 435), we propose that an event is central when it carries new information about others to the two nodes involved in the event. We find that the proposed measure properly quantifies the importance of events in connecting nodes along time-ordered paths. Because of strong heterogeneity in the importance of events present in real data, a small fraction of highly important events is necessary and sufficient to sustain the connectivity of temporal networks. Nevertheless, in contrast to the behavior of scale-free networks against link removal, this property mainly results from bursty activity patterns and not heterogeneous degree distributions. (paper)

Looking forward: the effects of photographs on the qualities of future thinking.

Science.gov (United States)

Bays, Rebecca B; Wellen, Brianna C M; Greenberg, Katherine S

2018-04-01

Future episodic thinking relies on the reconstruction of remembered experiences. Photographs provide one means of remembering, acting as a "cognitive springboard" for generating related memory qualities. We wondered whether photographs would also invite embellishment of future thought qualities, particularly in the presence (or absence) of associated memories. In two studies participants generated future events in familiar (associated memories) and novel (no associated memories) locations. Half of the participants viewed scene location photographs during event generation. All participants then imagined the events for one minute and completed a self-report measure of content qualities. Results of the current set of studies suggested that for novel locations, no differences in qualities emerged; however, for familiar locations, photographs did not enhance qualities and, in some cases, actually constrained perceptual (Experiments 1 and 2) and sensory (Experiment 1) detail ratings of future thoughts. Thus, photographs did not invite embellishment of future thought details.

Sensitivity Tests for the Unprotected Events of the Prototype Gen-IV SFR

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Choi, Chiwoong; Lee, Kwilim; Jeong, Jaeho; Yu, Jin; An, Sangjun; Lee, Seung Won; Chang, Wonpyo; Ha, Kwiseok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

Unprotected Transient Over Power, (UTOP), Unprotected Loss Of Flow (ULOF), and Unprotected Loss Of Heat Sink (ULOHS) are selected as ATWS events. Among these accidents, the ULOF event shows the lowest clad temperature. However, the ULOHS event showed the highest peak clad temperature, due to the positive CRDL/RV expansion reactivity feedback and insufficient DHRS capacity. In this study, the sensitivity tests are conducted. In the case of the UTOP event, a sensitivity test for the reactivity insertion amount and rate were conducted. This analysis can give a requirement for margin of control rod stop system (CRSS). Currently, the reactivity feedback model for the PGSFR is not validated yet. However, the reactivity feedback models in the MARS-LMR are validating with various plant-based data including EBR-II SHRT. The ATWS events for the PGSFR classified in the design extended condition including UTOP, ULOF, and ULOHS are analyzed with MARS-LMR. In this study, the sensitivity tests for reactivity insertion amount and rate in the UTOP event are conducted. The reactivity insertion amount is obviously an influential parameter. The reactivity insertion amount can give a requirement for design of the CRSS, therefore, this sensitivity result is very important to the CRSS. In addition, sensitivity tests for the weighting factor in the radial expansion reactivity model are carried out. The weighting factor for a grid plate, W{sub GP}, which means contribution of feedback in the grid plate is changed for all unprotected events. The grid plate expansion is governed by a core inlet temperature. As the W{sub GP} is increased, the power in the UTOP and the ULOF is increased, however, the power in the ULOHS is decreased. The higher power during transient means lower reactivity feedback and smaller expansion. Thus, the core outlet temperature rise is dominant in the UTOP and ULOF events, however, the core inlet temperature rise is dominant in the ULOHS. Therefore, the grid plate

Recurring Events in the Finnish Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Suksi, Seija; Olander, Ronnie; Tiippana, Petteri

2003-01-01

An analysis and evaluation of event investigation methods applied by the Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority (STUK), and the two Finnish nuclear power plant operators Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO) and Fortum Power and Heat Oy (Fortum) was carried out by the Technical Research Centre (VIT) on an assignment from STUK. The study aimed at providing a broad overview of the whole organisational framework to support event investigation practices at the regulatory body and at the utilities. The study was part of the IAEA Co-ordinated Research Programme (CRP) on 'Investigation of Methodologies for Incident Analysis'. The main objective of the research was to evaluate the adequacy and reliability of event investigation analysis methods and practices in the Finnish nuclear power industry and based on the results to further develop them. In general, the direct causes of identified events could be detected and eliminated, but more emphasis should be given to the prevention of recurrence of events and identification of common causes and latent failures. The study showed that the evaluated organisations had rather comprehensive incident analysis arrangements. The study also showed that more focus and prioritisation are needed. Deficiencies were identified mostly in the areas of recording, assessment and classification of new events, use of existing operating experience data, utilisation of information technology tools, and allocation of work and resources. Also the indicators or measures for the effectiveness of event investigation and operating experience feedback were missing. All organisations should maintain adequate resources in this area. The researchers suggested a more effective operating experience feedback loop. Especially more attention should be paid to root cause analysis of significant events, tasks and activities where the initial errors have occurred, and weaknesses of defensive barriers. It was also recommended that implementing periodic operational experience

Extreme fluxes in solar energetic particle events: Methodological and physical limitations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miroshnichenko, L.I.; Nymmik, R.A.

2014-01-01

In this study, all available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs), or extreme solar energetic particle (SEP) events, for the period from 1561 up to now are analyzed. Under consideration are the observational, methodological and physical problems of energy-spectrum presentation for SEP fluxes (fluences) near the Earth's orbit. Special attention is paid to the study of the distribution function for extreme fluences of SEPs by their sizes. The authors present advances in at least three aspects: 1) a form of the distribution function that was previously obtained from the data for three cycles of solar activity has been completely confirmed by the data for 41 solar cycles; 2) early estimates of extremely large fluences in the past have been critically revised, and their values were found to be overestimated; and 3) extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution, so the concept of an “upper limit flux” does not carry any strict physical sense although it serves as an important empirical restriction. SEP fluxes may only be characterized by the relative probabilities of their appearance, and there is a sharp break in the spectrum in the range of large fluences (or low probabilities). It is emphasized that modern observational data and methods of investigation do not allow, for the present, the precise resolution of the problem of the spectrum break or the estimation of the maximum potentialities of solar accelerator(s). This limitation considerably restricts the extrapolation of the obtained results to the past and future for application to the epochs with different levels of solar activity. - Highlights: • All available data on the largest solar proton events (SPEs) are analyzed. • Distribution function obtained for 3 last cycles is confirmed for 41 solar cycles. • Estimates of extremely large fluences in the past are found to be overestimated. • Extremely large SEP fluxes are shown to obey a probabilistic distribution. �

Human reliability analysis using event trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heslinga, G.

1983-01-01

The shut-down procedure of a technologically complex installation as a nuclear power plant consists of a lot of human actions, some of which have to be performed several times. The procedure is regarded as a chain of modules of specific actions, some of which are analyzed separately. The analysis is carried out by making a Human Reliability Analysis event tree (HRA event tree) of each action, breaking down each action into small elementary steps. The application of event trees in human reliability analysis implies more difficulties than in the case of technical systems where event trees were mainly used until now. The most important reason is that the operator is able to recover a wrong performance; memory influences play a significant role. In this study these difficulties are dealt with theoretically. The following conclusions can be drawn: (1) in principle event trees may be used in human reliability analysis; (2) although in practice the operator will recover his fault partly, theoretically this can be described as starting the whole event tree again; (3) compact formulas have been derived, by which the probability of reaching a specific failure consequence on passing through the HRA event tree after several times of recovery is to be calculated. (orig.)

Event-Driven Contrastive Divergence for Spiking Neuromorphic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emre eNeftci

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs and Deep Belief Networks have been demonstrated to perform efficiently in variety of applications, such as dimensionality reduction, feature learning, and classification. Their implementation on neuromorphic hardware platforms emulating large-scale networks of spiking neurons can have significant advantages from the perspectives of scalability, power dissipation and real-time interfacing with the environment. However the traditional RBM architecture and the commonly used training algorithm known as Contrastive Divergence (CD are based on discrete updates and exact arithmetics which do not directly map onto a dynamical neural substrate. Here, we present an event-driven variation of CD to train a RBM constructed with Integrate & Fire (I&F neurons, that is constrained by the limitations of existing and near future neuromorphic hardware platforms. Our strategy is based on neural sampling, which allows us to synthesize a spiking neural network that samples from a target Boltzmann distribution. The reverberating activity of the network replaces the discrete steps of the CD algorithm, while Spike Time Dependent Plasticity (STDP carries out the weight updates in an online, asynchronous fashion.We demonstrate our approach by training an RBM composed of leaky I&F neurons with STDP synapses to learn a generative model of the MNIST hand-written digit dataset, and by testing it in recognition, generation and cue integration tasks. Our results contribute to a machine learning-driven approach for synthesizing networks of spiking neurons capable of carrying out practical, high-level functionality.

Event-driven contrastive divergence for spiking neuromorphic systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Neftci, Emre; Das, Srinjoy; Pedroni, Bruno; Kreutz-Delgado, Kenneth; Cauwenberghs, Gert

2013-01-01

Restricted Boltzmann Machines (RBMs) and Deep Belief Networks have been demonstrated to perform efficiently in a variety of applications, such as dimensionality reduction, feature learning, and classification. Their implementation on neuromorphic hardware platforms emulating large-scale networks of spiking neurons can have significant advantages from the perspectives of scalability, power dissipation and real-time interfacing with the environment. However, the traditional RBM architecture and the commonly used training algorithm known as Contrastive Divergence (CD) are based on discrete updates and exact arithmetics which do not directly map onto a dynamical neural substrate. Here, we present an event-driven variation of CD to train a RBM constructed with Integrate & Fire (I&F) neurons, that is constrained by the limitations of existing and near future neuromorphic hardware platforms. Our strategy is based on neural sampling, which allows us to synthesize a spiking neural network that samples from a target Boltzmann distribution. The recurrent activity of the network replaces the discrete steps of the CD algorithm, while Spike Time Dependent Plasticity (STDP) carries out the weight updates in an online, asynchronous fashion. We demonstrate our approach by training an RBM composed of leaky I&F neurons with STDP synapses to learn a generative model of the MNIST hand-written digit dataset, and by testing it in recognition, generation and cue integration tasks. Our results contribute to a machine learning-driven approach for synthesizing networks of spiking neurons capable of carrying out practical, high-level functionality.

Second-Order Multiagent Systems with Event-Driven Consensus Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiangping Hu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Event-driven control scheduling strategies for multiagent systems play a key role in future use of embedded microprocessors of limited resources that gather information and actuate the agent control updates. In this paper, a distributed event-driven consensus problem is considered for a multi-agent system with second-order dynamics. Firstly, two kinds of event-driven control laws are, respectively, designed for both leaderless and leader-follower systems. Then, the input-to-state stability of the closed-loop multi-agent system with the proposed event-driven consensus control is analyzed and the bound of the inter-event times is ensured. Finally, some numerical examples are presented to validate the proposed event-driven consensus control.

GC Side Event: Future of Nuclear Energy: Engaging the Young Generation. Presentations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2017-01-01

This event presented the IAEA’s programmes for the education and training of a new generation of nuclear professionals. It also featured the annual European Master of Science in Nuclear Engineering (EMSNE) award ceremony

Event-by-event fluctuations of the particle yield ratios in heavy-ion collisions at 20 - 158 AGeV

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kresan, Dmytro

2010-12-22

Non-statistical event-by-event fluctuations are considered as an important signal for the critical endpoint of the QCD phase diagram. Event-by-event fluctuations of different observables are thus investigated in detail in current experiments but are also an important observable to be studied at the future CBM experiment at FAIR. In this work we present the energy and centrality dependence of event-by-event fluctuations of particle yield ratios measured by the NA49 experiment in Pb+Pb collisions at 20-158 AGeV. Systematic studies of the influence of the dE/dx resolution on the particle identification and the centrality bin size were performed. Results can be compared to event-by-event fluctuations measured by NA49 for different observables such as or the mean charged particle multiplicity. Main results of these studies are an increase of absolute value of the dynamical particle ratio fluctuations with decreasing centrality for all considered ratios, saturation of the K/{pi} and K/p ratio fluctuations for peripheral Pb + Pb collisions at 158A GeV and scaling of the energy and centrality dependences of the p/{pi} ratio fluctuations with N{sub p}N{sub {pi}}. The measured energy and centrality dependences of the K/{pi} and K/p ratio fluctuations scale with N{sub K} in a different way. The saturation of the mentioned ratios fluctuations was attributed to the development of pronounced spike at zero in the eventwise ratio distributions, which, as was shown by Monte Carlo simulations, influence the measured fluctuations in the very peripheral Pb + Pb collisions at 158A GeV. In future, the CBM experiment at FAIR will investigate the intermediate region of the QCD phase diagram in great detail searching for the first order phase transition line and the expected critical endpoint. It is therefore important to closely investigate its sensitivity towards particle ratio fluctuations in Au+Au collisions at 10-45 AGeV beam energy. Detailed simulation studies are

BLOOD SUBSTITUTES: EVOLUTION FROM NON-CARRYING TO OXYGEN AND GAS CARRYING FLUIDS

Science.gov (United States)

Cabrales, Pedro; Intaglietta, Marcos

2013-01-01

The development of oxygen (O2) carrying blood substitutes has evolved from the goal of replicating blood O2 transports properties to that of preserving microvascular and organ function, reducing the inherent or potential toxicity of the material used to carry O2, and treating pathologies initiated by anemia and hypoxia. Furthermore, the emphasis has shifted from blood replacement fluid to “O2 therapeutics” that restore tissue oxygenation to specific tissues regions. This review covers the different alternatives, potential and limitations of hemoglobin based O2 carriers (HBOCs) and perfluorocarbon based O2 carriers (PFCOCs), with emphasis on the physiological conditions disturbed in the situation that they will be used. It describes how concepts learned from plasma expanders without O2 carrying capacity can be applied to maintain O2 delivery and summarizes the microvascular responses due to HBOCs and PFCOCs. This review also presents alternative applications of HBOCs and PFCOCs namely: 1) How HBOC O2 affinity can be engineered to target O2 delivery to hypoxic tissues; and 2) How the high gas solubility of PFCOCs provides new opportunities for carrying, dissolving and delivering gases with biological activity. It is concluded that current blood substitutes development has amplified their applications horizon by devising therapeutic functions for oxygen carriers requiring limited O2 delivery capacity restoration. Conversely, full, blood-like O2 carrying capacity re-establishment awaits control of O2 carrier toxicity. PMID:23820271

Environmental sustainability control by water resources carrying capacity concept: application significance in Indonesia

Science.gov (United States)

Djuwansyah, M. R.

2018-02-01

This paper reviews the use of Water Resources carrying capacity concept to control environmental sustainability with the particular note for the case in Indonesia. Carrying capacity is a capability measure of an environment or an area to support human and the other lives as well as their activities in a sustainable manner. Recurrently water-related hazards and environmental problems indicate that the environments are exploited over its carrying capacity. Environmental carrying capacity (ECC) assessment includes Land and Water Carrying Capacity analysis of an area, suggested to always refer to the dimension of the related watershed as an incorporated hydrologic unit on the basis of resources availability estimation. Many countries use this measure to forecast the future sustainability of regional development based on water availability. Direct water Resource Carrying Capacity (WRCC) assessment involves population number determination together with their activities could be supported by available water, whereas indirect WRCC assessment comprises the analysis of supply-demand balance status of water. Water resource limits primarily environmental carrying capacity rather than the land resource since land capability constraints are easier. WRCC is a crucial factor known to control land and water resource utilization, particularly in a growing densely populated area. Even though capability of water resources is relatively perpetual, the utilization pattern of these resources may change by socio-economic and cultural technology level of the users, because of which WRCC should be evaluated periodically to maintain usage sustainability of water resource and environment.

Safety rule evolution for future LMFBRs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Justin, F.; Wiesner

1986-06-01

After safety rules for operating reactors and for built reactors in France and Germany, this report presents the main points of the safety rules for future reactors. It is generally agreed that future LMFBRs will have to show the same safety level as other commercial nuclear power plants. The demonstration is to be partly based on deterministic criteria, or ''safety rules'', and partly on risk considerations, for rare events. In that respect, a high effort on preventive measures, especially to reinforce the reliability of essential safety functions (shutdown, decay heat removal) could be sufficient, if all conditions are considered. So the containment of a hypothetical core disruptive accident is no longer required. Nevertheless, low probability events gave some feedback on the SPX.2 design

Distributed Data Collection For Next Generation ATLAS EventIndex Project

CERN Document Server

Fernandez Casani, Alvaro; The ATLAS collaboration

2018-01-01

The ATLAS EventIndex currently runs in production in order to build a complete catalogue of events for experiments with large amounts of data. The current approach is to index all final produced data files at CERN Tier0, and at hundreds of grid sites, with a distributed data collection architecture using Object Stores to temporary maintain the conveyed information, with references to them sent with a Messaging System. The final backend of all the indexed data is a central Hadoop infrastructure at CERN; an Oracle relational database is used for faster access to a subset of this information. In the future of ATLAS, instead of files, the event should be the atomic information unit for metadata. This motivation arises in order to accommodate future data processing and storage technologies. Files will no longer be static quantities, possibly dynamically aggregating data, and also allowing event-level granularity processing in heavily parallel computing environments. It also simplifies the handling of loss and or e...

Vulnerability of solar energy infrastructure and output to extreme events: Climate change implications (Conference paper)

OpenAIRE

Patt, A.; Pfenninger, S.; Lilliestam, J.

2010-01-01

This paper explores the potential vulnerability of solar energy systems to future extreme event risks as a consequence of climate change. We describe the three main technologies likely to be used to harness sunlight -- thermal heating, photovoltaic (PV), and concentrating solar power (CSP) -- and identify critical extreme event vulnerabilities for each one. We then compare these vulnerabilities with assessments of future changes in extreme event risk levels. We do not identify any vulnerabili...

Future Climate Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cambell, C. G.

2004-01-01

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past climates resulting in a different future climate analog. Other alternative

The influence of the importance of event factors on meeting planner ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The influence of the importance of event factors on meeting planner satisfaction: A case study of a theme park event business. ... future business. This was done by sending an online survey to 25 regularly visiting meeting planners. This survey ...

The over-the-limb hard X-ray events

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, H. S.

Over-the-limb hard X-ray events offer a uniquely direct view of the hard X-ray emission from the solar corona during a major flare. Limb occultation at angles greater than about 10 deg (an arbitrary definition of this class of events) excludes any confusion with brighter chromospheric sources. Published observations of seven over-the-limb events, beginning with the prototype flare of March 30, 1969, are reviewed. The hard X-ray spectra appear to fall into two classes: hard events, with power-law index of about 2.0; and soft events, with power-law index about 5.4. This tendency towards bimodality is only significant at the 90-percent confidence level due to the smallness of the number of events observed to date. If borne out by future data, the bimodality would suggest the existence of two different acceleration mechanisms.

Identification of radiopure titanium for the LZ dark matter experiment and future rare event searches

Science.gov (United States)

Akerib, D. S.; Akerlof, C. W.; Akimov, D. Yu.; Alsum, S. K.; Araújo, H. M.; Arnquist, I. J.; Arthurs, M.; Bai, X.; Bailey, A. J.; Balajthy, J.; Balashov, S.; Barry, M. J.; Belle, J.; Beltrame, P.; Benson, T.; Bernard, E. P.; Bernstein, A.; Biesiadzinski, T. P.; Boast, K. E.; Bolozdynya, A.; Boxer, B.; Bramante, R.; Brás, P.; Buckley, J. H.; Bugaev, V. V.; Bunker, R.; Burdin, S.; Busenitz, J. K.; Carels, C.; Carlsmith, D. L.; Carlson, B.; Carmona-Benitez, M. C.; Chan, C.; Cherwinka, J. J.; Chiller, A. A.; Chiller, C.; Cottle, A.; Coughlen, R.; Craddock, W. W.; Currie, A.; Dahl, C. E.; Davison, T. J. R.; Dobi, A.; Dobson, J. E. Y.; Druszkiewicz, E.; Edberg, T. K.; Edwards, W. R.; Emmet, W. T.; Faham, C. H.; Fiorucci, S.; Fruth, T.; Gaitskell, R. J.; Gantos, N. J.; Gehman, V. M.; Gerhard, R. M.; Ghag, C.; Gilchriese, M. G. D.; Gomber, B.; Hall, C. R.; Hans, S.; Hanzel, K.; Haselschwardt, S. J.; Hertel, S. A.; Hillbrand, S.; Hjemfelt, C.; Hoff, M. D.; Holbrook, B.; Holtom, E.; Hoppe, E. W.; Hor, J. Y.-K.; Horn, M.; Huang, D. Q.; Hurteau, T. W.; Ignarra, C. M.; Jacobsen, R. G.; Ji, W.; Kaboth, A.; Kamdin, K.; Kazkaz, K.; Khaitan, D.; Khazov, A.; Khromov, A. V.; Konovalov, A. M.; Korolkova, E. V.; Koyuncu, M.; Kraus, H.; Krebs, H. J.; Kudryavtsev, V. A.; Kumpan, A. V.; Kyre, S.; Lee, C.; Lee, H. S.; Lee, J.; Leonard, D. S.; Leonard, R.; Lesko, K. T.; Levy, C.; Liao, F.-T.; Lin, J.; Lindote, A.; Linehan, R. E.; Lippincott, W. H.; Liu, X.; Lopes, M. I.; Lopez Paredes, B.; Lorenzon, W.; Luitz, S.; Majewski, P.; Manalaysay, A.; Manenti, L.; Mannino, R. L.; Markley, D. J.; Martin, T. J.; Marzioni, M. F.; McConnell, C. T.; McKinsey, D. N.; Mei, D.-M.; Meng, Y.; Miller, E. H.; Mizrachi, E.; Mock, J.; Monzani, M. E.; Morad, J. A.; Mount, B. J.; Murphy, A. St. J.; Nehrkorn, C.; Nelson, H. N.; Neves, F.; Nikkel, J. A.; O'Dell, J.; O'Sullivan, K.; Olcina, I.; Olevitch, M. A.; Oliver-Mallory, K. C.; Palladino, K. J.; Pease, E. K.; Piepke, A.; Powell, S.; Preece, R. M.; Pushkin, K.; Ratcliff, B. N.; Reichenbacher, J.; Reichhart, L.; Rhyne, C. A.; Richards, A.; Rodrigues, J. P.; Rose, H. J.; Rosero, R.; Rossiter, P.; Saba, J. S.; Sarychev, M.; Schnee, R. W.; Schubnell, M.; Scovell, P. R.; Shaw, S.; Shutt, T. A.; Silva, C.; Skarpaas, K.; Skulski, W.; Solmaz, M.; Solovov, V. N.; Sorensen, P.; Sosnovtsev, V. V.; Stancu, I.; Stark, M. R.; Stephenson, S.; Stiegler, T. M.; Stifter, K.; Sumner, T. J.; Szydagis, M.; Taylor, D. J.; Taylor, W. C.; Temples, D.; Terman, P. A.; Thomas, K. J.; Thomson, J. A.; Tiedt, D. R.; Timalsina, M.; To, W. H.; Tomás, A.; Tope, T. E.; Tripathi, M.; Tvrznikova, L.; Va'Vra, J.; Vacheret, A.; van der Grinten, M. G. D.; Verbus, J. R.; Vuosalo, C. O.; Waldron, W. L.; Wang, R.; Watson, R.; Webb, R. C.; Wei, W.-Z.; While, M.; White, D. T.; Whitis, T. J.; Wisniewski, W. J.; Witherell, M. S.; Wolfs, F. L. H.; Woodward, D.; Worm, S.; Xu, J.; Yeh, M.; Yin, J.; Zhang, C.; Lux-Zeplin (LZ) Collaboration

2017-11-01

The LUX-ZEPLIN (LZ) experiment will search for dark matter particle interactions with a detector containing a total of 10 tonnes of liquid xenon within a double-vessel cryostat. The large mass and proximity of the cryostat to the active detector volume demand the use of material with extremely low intrinsic radioactivity. We report on the radioassay campaign conducted to identify suitable metals, the determination of factors limiting radiopure production, and the selection of titanium for construction of the LZ cryostat and other detector components. This titanium has been measured with activities of 238Ue < 1.6 mBq/kg, 238Ul < 0.09 mBq/kg, 232The = 0.28 ± 0.03 mBq/kg, 232Thl = 0.25 ± 0.02 mBq/kg, 40K < 0.54 mBq/kg, and 60Co < 0.02 mBq/kg (68% CL). Such low intrinsic activities, which are some of the lowest ever reported for titanium, enable its use for future dark matter and other rare event searches. Monte Carlo simulations have been performed to assess the expected background contribution from the LZ cryostat with this radioactivity. In 1,000 days of WIMP search exposure of a 5.6-tonne fiducial mass, the cryostat will contribute only a mean background of 0.160 ± 0.001(stat) ± 0.030(sys) counts.

Optical Carry Adder.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-03-01

AOM’s) with the deflected beam as the modulator "on" state. These AOM’s ( TeO2 crystals, manufactured by Newport E.O. Systems) have high deflection...caused by the slow acoustic propagation (4.2 - 105 cm/s for TeO2 ), but this delay can be minimized by placing the laser beam close to the acoustic...dependent jitter in the optical carry to below 1 ns, the total carry path must be less than 30 cm long (or 20 cm in glass , 14 cm in LiNbO 3). Thus, a 32

Autobiographical Memory and Episodic Future Thinking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Katrine; Berntsen, Dorthe

Recalling the past and imagining the future is thought to employ very similar cognitive mechanisms. The strategic retrieval of specific past autobiographical events has been shown to depend on executive processes, and to be affected by cue imageability. The cognitive mechanisms underlying...... that autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking were affected similarly by cue imageability, suggesting that retrieval strategy can be manipulated in similar ways for both temporal directions. Furthermore, executive control processes (as measured by verbal fluency) was correlated with fluency and number...... of details in both memories and future thoughts, indicating the involvement of some common component processes in autobiographical memory and future thinking....

Ultimate design load analysis of planetary gearbox bearings under extreme events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gallego Calderon, Juan Felipe; Natarajan, Anand; Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio

2017-01-01

This paper investigates the impact of extreme events on the planet bearings of a 5 MW gearbox. The system is simulated using an aeroelastic tool, where the turbine structure is modeled, and MATLAB/Simulink, where the drivetrain (gearbox and generator) are modeled using a lumped-parameter approach....... Three extreme events are assessed: low-voltage ride through, emergency stop and normal stop. The analysis is focused on finding which event has the most negative impact on the bearing extreme radial loads. The two latter events are carried out following the guidelines of the International...

USE OF RFID AT LARGE-SCALE EVENTS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuusuke KAWAKITA

2005-01-01

Full Text Available Radio Frequency Identification (RFID devices and related technologies have received a great deal of attention for their ability to perform non-contact object identification. Systems incorporating RFID have been evaluated from a variety of perspectives. The authors constructed a networked RFID system to support event management at NetWorld+Interop 2004 Tokyo, an event that received 150,000 visitors. The system used multiple RFID readers installed at the venue and RFID tags carried by each visitor to provide a platform for running various management and visitor support applications. This paper presents the results of this field trial of RFID readability rates. It further addresses the applicability of RFID systems to visitor management, a problematic aspect of large-scale events.

Gun Carrying by High School Students in Boston, MA: Does Overestimation of Peer Gun Carrying Matter?

Science.gov (United States)

Hemenway, David; Vriniotis, Mary; Johnson, Renee M.; Miller, Matthew; Azrael, Deborah

2011-01-01

This paper investigates: (1) whether high school students overestimate gun carrying by their peers, and (2) whether those students who overestimate peer gun carrying are more likely to carry firearms. Data come from a randomly sampled survey conducted in 2008 of over 1700 high school students in Boston, MA. Over 5% of students reported carrying a…

Lead lag relationships between futures and spot prices

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asche, Frank; Guttormsen, Atle G

2002-01-01

In this paper we examine the relationship between spot and futures prices. This is traditionally done by testing for cointegration with the Engle and Granger methodology, before one specifies an error correction models in order to draw inference about causality. This approach, although appealing for its simplicity, is problematic on at least two accounts. First, the approach is only valid given an exogeneity assumption, which is what one wants to test, and second, given that there are several contracts with different times to expiration, bivariate specifications cannot capture all the relevant information. We show that both problems can be avoided if the tests are carried out in a multivariate framework like the Johansen test. An empirical application is carried out on futures prices for gas oil. Findings indicate that futures prices leads spot prices, and that futures contracts with longer time to expiration leads contracts with shorter time to expiration. (author)

Study of information-orientation carry-out plan in energy sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kang, T W [Korea Energy Economics Institute, Euiwang (Korea, Republic of)

1998-04-01

Carrying out an information-orientation plan in the energy sector is indispensable if Korea is to survive in this unlimited competition age and global management system. It is also for maximizing the management efficiency of national energy resources as well as increasing the development of related industries and national welfare. The management of the energy resources sector of Korea, which is becoming diversified escaping from the past simple quantitative management of supplier-orientation, requires versatile and ample high-class information management system and high-level decision support system. In order to satisfy these requests, this study investigated and analyzed overall policies of the energy sector for carrying out information-orientation, neighborhood environment, organizational chart, information transfer method, the current condition of information-orientation, problems and improvements, demand of information-orientation of the future, and also reviewed the information-orientation status of advanced countries. Based on these, an information-orientation carryout plan in the energy sector is broken into three stages of `establishment of information transfer system`, `development of database`, and `establishment of decision support system` and presented per detailed work. It advised manpower, equipment and budget implementation plan, and a development schedule plan required for carrying out information-orientation as well as overall environmental build-up, and policy recommendation for the successful implementation of information-orientation. 24 refs., 27 figs., 15 tabs.

Conditional and future tense impairment in non-fluent aphasia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rofes, Adria; Bastiaanse, Roelien; Martinez-Ferreiro, Silvia

2014-01-01

Background: Morphological errors of tense and agreement are salient in agrammatic aphasia. The PADILIH predicts impairments in discourse linking that translate to greater difficulties in referring to a past event time than to a future or a present event time. In Catalan, the Periphrastic conditional

Perceived popularity of adolescents who use weapons in violence and adolescents who only carry weapons.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Lacey N

2017-01-01

Prior research has found that persistently delinquent youth or more violent youth were less popular than their less delinquent peers (Young, 2013). However, recent research has also found that weapon carrying is associated with being more popular in adolescence (Dijkstra et al., 2010). The present paper examines the perceived popularity of adolescents who carry weapons in comparison to those who both carry and use weapons in acts of violence or threatened violence. Data consist of two waves from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health. Analyses use OLS regression with lagged predictors. This paper found no differences in number of friends between weapon carriers and weapon users. However, among both male and female gang members, those who did not use or carry weapons (abstainers) named significantly fewer friends than weapon users. Among females, weapon abstainers both named and were named by significantly more people than weapon users. These differences were not observed for males. Implications of these results and directions for future research are discussed.

A quantitative content analysis of UK newsprint coverage of proposed legislation to prohibit smoking in private vehicles carrying children.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Chris; Semple, Sean; Wood, Karen; Duffy, Sheila; Hilton, Shona

2015-08-08

Mass media representations of health issues influence public perceptions of those issues. Despite legislation prohibiting smoking in public spaces, second-hand smoke (SHS) remains a health risk in the United Kingdom (UK). Further legislation might further limit children's exposure to SHS by prohibiting smoking in private vehicles carrying children. This research was designed to determine how UK national newspapers represented the debate around proposed legislation to prohibit smoking in private vehicles carrying children. Quantitative analysis of the manifest content of 422 articles about children and SHS published in UK and Scottish newspapers between 1st January 2003 and 16th February 2014. Researchers developed a coding frame incorporating emergent themes from the data. Each article was double-coded. The frequency of relevant articles rose and fell in line with policy debate events. Children were frequently characterised as victims of SHS, and SHS was associated with various health risks. Articles discussing legislation targeting SHS in private vehicles carrying children presented supportive arguments significantly more frequently than unsupportive arguments. The relatively positive representation of legislation prohibiting smoking in vehicles carrying children is favourable to policy advocates, and potentially indicative of likely public acceptance of legislation. Our findings support two lessons that public health advocates may consider: the utility of presenting children as a vulnerable target population, and the possibility of late surges in critical arguments preceding policy events.

Impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

The analysis of the frequency of rainy days, rain days and heavy rainfall days as well as one-day extreme rainfall and return period has been carried out in this study to observe the impact of climate change on extreme rainfall events and flood risk in India. The frequency of heavy rainfall events are decreasing in major parts ...

Recurrence models of volcanic events: Applications to volcanic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Crowe, B.M.; Picard, R.; Valentine, G.; Perry, F.V.

1992-01-01

An assessment of the risk of future volcanism has been conducted for isolation of high-level radioactive waste at the potential Yucca Mountain site in southern Nevada. Risk used in this context refers to a combined assessment of the probability and consequences of future volcanic activity. Past studies established bounds on the probability of magmatic disruption of a repository. These bounds were revised as additional data were gathered from site characterization studies. The probability of direct intersection of a potential repository located in an eight km 2 area of Yucca Mountain by ascending basalt magma was bounded by the range of 10 -8 to 10 -10 yr -1 2 . The consequences of magmatic disruption of a repository were estimated in previous studies to be limited. The exact releases from such an event are dependent on the strike of an intruding basalt dike relative to the repository geometry, the timing of the basaltic event relative to the age of the radioactive waste and the mechanisms of release and dispersal of the waste radionuclides in the accessible environment. The combined low probability of repository disruption and the limited releases associated with this event established the basis for the judgement that the risk of future volcanism was relatively low. It was reasoned that that risk of future volcanism was not likely to result in disqualification of the potential Yucca Mountain site

An Oracle-based Event Index for ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Gallas, Elizabeth; The ATLAS collaboration; Petrova, Petya Tsvetanova; Baranowski, Zbigniew; Canali, Luca; Formica, Andrea; Dumitru, Andrei

2016-01-01

The ATLAS EventIndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS, the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We've indexed about 15 billion real data events and about 25 billion simulated events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year for real data and simulation, respectively. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data ...

Determinants for Clinical Events in Gallstone Carriers Unaware of their Gallstones

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mønsted Shabanzadeh, Daniel; Sørensen, Lars Tue; Jørgensen, Torben

2017-01-01

, vocational training, and inversely association to a higher physical activity level when compared to being sedentary. Multiple adjusted models confirmed association for total events and body mass index and for complicated events and physical activity. No significant associations were identified for alcohol......, coffee, diet, smoking, or visits to general practitioner and clinical events. CONCLUSIONS: Body mass index, vocational training, and physical activity level were associated to clinical events in long-term follow-up of unaware gallstone carriers. Future trials should investigate clinical effects...

Motivation and intention to integrate physical activity into daily school life: the JAM World Record event.

Science.gov (United States)

Vazou, Spyridoula; Vlachopoulos, Symeon P

2014-11-01

Research on the motivation of stakeholders to integrate physical activity into daily school life is limited. The purpose was to examine the motivation of stakeholders to participate in a world record physical activity event and whether motivation was associated with future intention to use activity breaks during the daily school life and future participation in a similar event. After the 2012 JAM (Just-a-Minute) World Record event, 686 adults (591 women; 76.1% participated for children amotivation for participation in the next event were reported. Hierarchical regression analysis, controlling for age, gender, and occupation, showed that intrinsic forms of motivation positively predicted, whereas amotivation negatively predicted, future intention to participate in the event and use the activity breaks. Multivariate analyses of variance revealed that school-related participants were more intrinsically motivated and intended to use the activity breaks and repeat the event more than those who were not affiliated with a school. Nonschool participants reported higher extrinsic motivation and amotivation than school-related participants. © 2014 Society for Public Health Education.

Foundations for Streaming Model Transformations by Complex Event Processing.

Science.gov (United States)

Dávid, István; Ráth, István; Varró, Dániel

2018-01-01

Streaming model transformations represent a novel class of transformations to manipulate models whose elements are continuously produced or modified in high volume and with rapid rate of change. Executing streaming transformations requires efficient techniques to recognize activated transformation rules over a live model and a potentially infinite stream of events. In this paper, we propose foundations of streaming model transformations by innovatively integrating incremental model query, complex event processing (CEP) and reactive (event-driven) transformation techniques. Complex event processing allows to identify relevant patterns and sequences of events over an event stream. Our approach enables event streams to include model change events which are automatically and continuously populated by incremental model queries. Furthermore, a reactive rule engine carries out transformations on identified complex event patterns. We provide an integrated domain-specific language with precise semantics for capturing complex event patterns and streaming transformations together with an execution engine, all of which is now part of the Viatra reactive transformation framework. We demonstrate the feasibility of our approach with two case studies: one in an advanced model engineering workflow; and one in the context of on-the-fly gesture recognition.

Difference Image Analysis of Galactic Microlensing. II. Microlensing Events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Alcock, C.; Allsman, R. A.; Alves, D.; Axelrod, T. S.; Becker, A. C.; Bennett, D. P.; Cook, K. H.; Drake, A. J.; Freeman, K. C.; Griest, K. (and others)

1999-09-01

The MACHO collaboration has been carrying out difference image analysis (DIA) since 1996 with the aim of increasing the sensitivity to the detection of gravitational microlensing. This is a preliminary report on the application of DIA to galactic bulge images in one field. We show how the DIA technique significantly increases the number of detected lensing events, by removing the positional dependence of traditional photometry schemes and lowering the microlensing event detection threshold. This technique, unlike PSF photometry, gives the unblended colors and positions of the microlensing source stars. We present a set of criteria for selecting microlensing events from objects discovered with this technique. The 16 pixel and classical microlensing events discovered with the DIA technique are presented. (c) (c) 1999. The American Astronomical Society.

After the flood is before the next flood - post event review of the Central European Floods of June 2013. Insights, recommendations and next steps for future flood prevention

Science.gov (United States)

Szoenyi, Michael; Mechler, Reinhard; McCallum, Ian

2015-04-01

In early June 2013, severe flooding hit Central and Eastern Europe, causing extensive damage, in particular along the Danube and Elbe main watersheds. The situation was particularly severe in Eastern Germany, Austria, Hungary and the Czech Republic. Based on the Post Event Review Capability (PERC) approach, developed by Zurich Insurance's Flood Resilience Program to provide independent review of large flood events, we examine what has worked well (best practice) and opportunities for further improvement. The PERC overall aims to thoroughly examine aspects of flood resilience, flood risk management and catastrophe intervention in order to help build back better after events and learn for future events. As our research from post event analyses shows a lot of losses are in fact avoidable by taking the right measures pre-event and these measures are economically - efficient with a return of 4 Euro on losses saved for every Euro invested in prevention on average (Wharton/IIASA flood resilience alliance paper on cost benefit analysis, Mechler et al. 2014) and up to 10 Euros for certain countries. For the 2013 flood events we provide analysis on the following aspects and in general identify a number of factors that worked in terms of reducing the loss and risk burden. 1. Understanding risk factors of the Central European Floods 2013 We review the precursors leading up to the floods in June, with an extremely wet May 2013 and an atypical V-b weather pattern that brought immense precipitation in a very short period to the watersheds of Elbe, Donau and partially the Rhine in the D-A-CH countries and researched what happened during the flood and why. Key questions we asked revolve around which protection and risk reduction approaches worked well and which did not, and why. 2. Insights and recommendations from the post event review The PERC identified a number of risk factors, which need attention if risk is to be reduced over time. • Yet another "100-year flood" - risk

Revisiting the past and back to the future: memory systems and the linguistic representation of social events.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Semin, G.R.; Smith, E.R.

1999-01-01

Five studies were conducted to investigate the relationship between how people communicate about social events and how representations of these events are stored in memory. It was hypothesized that more distant events in memory would be described with more abstract linguistic predicates, and recent

The Development of Future Orientation is Associated with Faster Decline in Hopelessness during Adolescence.

Science.gov (United States)

Mac Giollabhui, Naoise; Nielsen, Johanna; Seidman, Sam; Olino, Thomas M; Abramson, Lyn Y; Alloy, Lauren B

2018-01-05

Hopelessness is implicated in multiple psychological disorders. Little is known, however, about the trajectory of hopelessness during adolescence or how emergent future orientation may influence its trajectory. Parallel process latent growth curve modelling tested whether (i) trajectories of future orientation and hopelessness and (ii) within-individual change in future orientation and hopelessness were related. The study was comprised of 472 adolescents [52% female, 47% Caucasian, 47% received free lunch] recruited at ages 12-13 who completed measures of future orientation and hopelessness at five annual assessments. The results indicate that a general decline in hopelessness across adolescence occurs quicker for those experiencing faster development of future orientation, when controlling for age, sex, low socio-economic status in addition to stressful life events in childhood and adolescence. Stressful childhood life events were associated with worse future orientation at baseline and negative life events experienced during adolescence were associated with both an increase in the trajectory of hopelessness as well as a decrease in the trajectory of future orientation. This study provides compelling evidence that the development of future orientation during adolescence is associated with a faster decline in hopelessness.

Hotel chains: survival strategies for a dynamic future

OpenAIRE

Brendan Richard

2017-01-01

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to better understand the future of hotel chains by exploring the evolving expectations of guests, potential innovations, emerging opportunities, and likely future scenarios. Design/methodology/approach – A literature review consisting of current events, industry reports, and recent trends is utilized to summarize and categorize the challenges and opportunities facing hotel chains. Findings – The future of hotel chains will be driven by the convergence of...

Future Climate Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

C. G. Cambell

2004-09-03

This report documents an analysis that was performed to estimate climatic variables for the next 10,000 years by forecasting the timing and nature of climate change at Yucca Mountain, Nevada, the site of a repository for spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste. The future-climate estimates are based on an analysis of past-climate data from analog meteorological stations, and this report provides the rationale for the selection of these analog stations. The stations selected provide an upper and a lower climate bound for each future climate, and the data from those sites will provide input to the following reports: ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]), ''Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) Model/Analysis for the License Application'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 168504]), ''Features, Events, and Processes in UZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170012]), and ''Features, Events, and Processes in SZ Flow and Transport'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170013]). Forecasting long-term future climates, especially for the next 10,000 years, is highly speculative and rarely attempted. A very limited literature exists concerning the subject, largely from the British radioactive waste disposal effort. The discussion presented here is one available forecasting method for establishing upper and lower bounds for future climate estimates. The selection of different methods is directly dependent on the available evidence used to build a forecasting argument. The method used here involves selecting a particular past climate from many past climates, as an analog for future climate. While alternative analyses are possible for the case presented for Yucca Mountain, the evidence (data) used would be the same and the conclusions would not be expected to drastically change. Other studies might develop a different rationale or select other past

Is There a Downside to Anticipating the Upside? Children's and Adults' Reasoning About How Prior Expectations Shape Future Emotions.

Science.gov (United States)

Lara, Karen Hjortsvang; Lagattuta, Kristin Hansen; Kramer, Hannah J

2017-11-24

Four- to 10-year-olds and adults (N = 205) responded to vignettes involving three individuals with different expectations (high, low, and no) for a future event. Participants judged characters' pre-outcome emotions, as well as predicted and explained their feelings following three events (positive, attenuated, and negative). Although adults rated high-expectation characters more negatively than low-expectation characters after all outcomes, children shared this intuition starting at 6-7 years for negative outcomes, 8-10 years for attenuated, and never for positive. Comparison to baseline (no expectation) indicated that understanding the costs of high expectations emerges first and remains more robust across age than recognition that low expectations carry benefits. Explanation analyses further clarified this developing awareness about the relation between thoughts and emotions over time. © 2017 The Authors. Child Development © 2017 Society for Research in Child Development, Inc.

Hybla Fair event: environmental report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roach, D.R.; Russell, W.L. Jr.

1975-01-01

A series of environmental measurements during the Hybla Fair nuclear event were made. Experimenters were unsure of conditions that would be created since there was no closure system and the experiments were close to the source. A variety of temperature, pressure, and load devices were tested. The results will aid in the design and engineering of future close-in diagnostic packages and pipes. (U.S.)

The accuracy of dysphoric and nondepressed groups' predictions of life events.

Science.gov (United States)

Kapçi, E G; Cramer, D

1998-11-01

The phenomenon of depressive realism was examined in relation to the future prediction of positive and negative life events. A group of dysphoric (n = 20) and nondepressed (n = 38) British undergraduates participated in a prospective study lasting 3 months. Partly consistent with the depressive realism hypotheses, dysphoric participants were more realistic concerning the negative life events they would experience, but they were less realistic concerning the negative life events they would not experience. Although no difference was found for predicting the occurrence of positive life events, dysphoric participants were found to be more realistic concerning positive life events that they would not experience.

Family events and the residential mobility of couples

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Michielin, F.; Mulder, C.H.

2008-01-01

Using data from retrospective surveys carried out in the Netherlands during the early 1990s, we describe how the residential mobility of couples—that is, short-distance moves—is affected by family events and how fertility is affected by residential mobility. The results show that residential moves

Imagining the personal past: Episodic counterfactuals compared to episodic memories and episodic future projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Özbek, Müge; Bohn, Annette; Berntsen, Dorthe

2017-01-01

Episodic counterfactuals are imagined events that could have happened, but did not happen, in a person’s past. Such imagined past events are important aspects of mental life, affecting emotions, decisions, and behaviors. However, studies examining their phenomenological characteristics and content...... are few. Here we introduced a new method to systematically compare self-generated episodic counterfactuals to self-generated episodic memories and future projections with regard to their phenomenological characteristics (e.g., imagery, emotional valence, rehearsal) and content (e.g., reference to cultural...... distance. The findings show that imagined events are phenomenologically different from memories of experienced events, consistent with reality monitoring theory, and that imagined future events are different from both actual and imagined past events, consistent with some theories of motivation....

Causality Illusion and Overconfidence in Predicting (QuasiStochastic Financial Events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Petr Houdek

2017-03-01

Full Text Available We argue that individuals systematically interpret sequences of events in a  causal manner. The aim of this article is to show that people do so even if they are aware of the stochastic nature of the respective sequence. The bias can explain some anomalous behaviour of investors in financial markets. Small as well as professional investors may illusorily perceive causality of former random success and future yield. Laboratory experiments testing the interpretation of stochastically occurring events in financial designs as well as analyses of real trading data from financial markets confirm that investors indeed interpret (quasirandom events casually; they make incorrect predictions and they egocentrically allocate responsibility for their success. The causality illusion induces overconfidence, inefficient investment and risk seeking. In the conclusion, we discuss factors that may limit effects of the causality illusion and suggest future areas for research.

Extreme sea-level events in coastal regions

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Unnikrishnan, A.S.

that the outcome of the project has been a code that is capable of predicting correct trends more often (15 out of 20) than the other ‘black box’ codes in operation at various agencies. U. N. SINHA CSIR-Centre for Mathematical Modelling and Computer... of the extreme climate events. Their past trends, future projections and vulnerabi- lity and adaptation to such events are discussed in the report. The report was based on the efforts of both the working groups of the IPCC, WG I, which deals with the science...

Using Emotion as Information in Future-Oriented Cognition: Individual Differences in the Context of State Negative Affect

Science.gov (United States)

Marroquín, Brett; Boyle, Chloe C.; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan; Stanton, Annette L.

2016-01-01

Predictions about the future are susceptible to mood-congruent influences of emotional state. However, recent work suggests individuals also differ in the degree to which they incorporate emotion into cognition. This study examined the role of such individual differences in the context of state negative emotion. We examined whether trait tendencies to use negative or positive emotion as information affect individuals' predictions of what will happen in the future (likelihood estimation) and how events will feel (affective forecasting), and whether trait influences depend on emotional state. Participants (N=119) reported on tendencies to use emotion as information (“following feelings”), underwent an emotion induction (negative versus neutral), and made likelihood estimates and affective forecasts for future events. Views of the future were predicted by both emotional state and individual differences in following feelings. Whereas following negative feelings affected most future-oriented cognition across emotional states, following positive feelings specifically buffered individuals' views of the future in the negative emotion condition, and specifically for positive future events, a category of future-event prediction especially important in psychological health. Individual differences may confer predisposition toward optimistic or pessimistic expectations of the future in the context of acute negative emotion, with implications for adaptive and maladaptive functioning. PMID:27041783

Assessing the Social Carrying Capacity of Diving Sites in Mabul Island, Malaysia

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Liye; Chung, ShanShan

2015-12-01

This study has explored social carrying capacity of an underwater environment based on divers' perceived crowding. Two dimensions were assessed, the number of divers seen and the proximity of diver. Data were obtained from a survey of 132 divers dived in Mabul Island, Malaysia during 2013-2014. Photographs depicting four levels of diver number and four levels of diver proximity in different combinations were shown to the respondents for assessing their acceptability. Between the two variables, the "number of divers" was the most influential factor for divers' perceived crowding. Divers would start to feel unacceptably crowded if 8-9 divers were visible to them at one time. Based on this, it is likely that the use level of diving sites in Mabul Island has already exceeded its social carrying capacity. Implications for future research and diving tourism management for Mabul Island are also discussed in the paper.

Assessing the Social Carrying Capacity of Diving Sites in Mabul Island, Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Liye; Chung, ShanShan

2015-12-01

This study has explored social carrying capacity of an underwater environment based on divers' perceived crowding. Two dimensions were assessed, the number of divers seen and the proximity of diver. Data were obtained from a survey of 132 divers dived in Mabul Island, Malaysia during 2013-2014. Photographs depicting four levels of diver number and four levels of diver proximity in different combinations were shown to the respondents for assessing their acceptability. Between the two variables, the "number of divers" was the most influential factor for divers' perceived crowding. Divers would start to feel unacceptably crowded if 8-9 divers were visible to them at one time. Based on this, it is likely that the use level of diving sites in Mabul Island has already exceeded its social carrying capacity. Implications for future research and diving tourism management for Mabul Island are also discussed in the paper.

Autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking after moderate to severe traumatic brain injury

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Katrine Willemoes; Berntsen, Dorthe

2014-01-01

Converging evidence suggests that autobiographical memory and episodic future thinking share a common neurocognitive basis. Although previous research has shown that traumatic brain injury (TBI) can impair the ability to remember the personal past, episodic future thinking has not previously been...... asked to report a series of events that had happened to them in the past and a series of events that might happen to them in the future. Transcriptions were scored according to a reliable system for categorizing internal (episodic) and external (semantic) information. For each event described......, participants also completed two modified Autobiographical Memory Questionnaire items to assess self-reported phenomenal qualities associated with remembering and imagining. In addition, TBI patients underwent neuropsychological assessment. Results revealed that TBI patients recalled/imagined proportionally...

77 FR 74144 - Federal Motor Vehicle Safety Standards; Event Data Recorders

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-13

... strategies were used during the event. Additionally, the data can be used to assess whether the vehicle was... the agency regarding their 2010 vehicles and then weighting using 2010 corporate-level vehicle... advance notice of proposed rulemaking in the near future to explore the potential for, and future utility...

Safeguards Summary Event List (SSEL). Pre-NRC trhough December 31, 1978

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-12-01

Nine categories of events involving NRC licensed material or licensees are included. As additional information is obtained on an event, it will be incorporated in future editions. The list contains incidents as well as less significant events. The nine categories are: bomb-related (divided into two sections: (a) those events in which a bomb or explosive material was located or an explosion occurred at or in the vicinity of a licensed facility, (b) a complete chronological list), intrusion, missing and/or allegedly stolen, transportation-related, vandalism, arson, firearms-related, sabotage, and miscellaneous

Anticipating and addressing event-specific alcohol consumption among adolescents.

Science.gov (United States)

Pettigrew, Simone; Biagioni, Nicole; Jongenelis, Michelle I

2016-07-29

Various specific events and celebrations are associated with excessive alcohol consumption and related harms. End-of-school celebrations such as Schoolies in Australia are of particular concern given high levels of documented harm among underage and young drinkers. The present study investigated high school students' expectations of their Schoolies celebrations to inform future interventions to reduce adverse outcomes among members of this vulnerable group and other young people involved in similar rites of passage. A link to an online survey was distributed via high schools and Schoolies-related websites. The survey included qualitative questions that invited respondents to discuss (i) aspects of Schoolies they were looking forward to most and least and (ii) their perceptions of the likely consequences if they refrained from consuming alcohol during the event. In total, 435 students provided responses. Respondents discussed the role of Schoolies in marking their transition to adulthood. Their comments revealed a cross-temporal focus indicating that Schoolies is simultaneously symbolic of the past, present, and future. Through its ability to enhance social interaction, alcohol was perceived to have a vital role in realising the potential of this event to signify and facilitate this temporal progression. Results suggest interventions that treat Schoolies as an isolated event that occurs in specific locations may fail to appreciate the extent to which these events transcend time for those involved. Instead, harm reduction is likely to involve a reconceptualisation of the event among both participants and authority figures to facilitate the provision of alternative pastimes to drinking during Schoolies that yield similar social benefits.

Toward an Intelligent Event Broker: Automated Transient Classificaiton

Science.gov (United States)

Wozniak, P.

In order to succeed, the massive time-domain surveys of the future must automatically identify actionable information from the torrent of imaging data, classify emerging events, and optimize the follow-up strategy. To address this challenge, we are developing a fully autonomous, distributed event broker that will integrate cutting edge machine learning algorithms with high performance computing infrastructure. The talk will give an overview of this work and recent progress on image level variability detection and spectral classification using low resolution spectra.

Reconstructing events, from electronic signals to tracks

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2015-01-01

Reconstructing tracks in the events taken by LHC experiments is one of the most challenging and computationally expensive software tasks to be carried out in the data processing chain. A typical LHC event is composed of multiple p-p interactions, each leaving signals from many charged particles in the detector and jus building up an environment of unprecedented complexity. In the lecture I will give an overview of event reconstruction in a typical High Energy Physics experiment. After an introduction to particle tracking detectors I will discuss the concepts and techniques required to master the tracking challenge at the LHC. I will explain how track propagation in a realistic detector works, present different techniques for track fitting and track finding. At the end we will see how all of those techniques play together in the ATLAS track reconstruction application.

Political, energy events will remain interwoven

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, D.P.

1991-01-01

This paper reports that it is possible to discuss the significance of political and energy events separately, but, in truth, they are intricately interwoven. Furthermore, there are those who will argue that since the two are inseparable, the future is not predictable; so why bother in the endeavor. It is possible that the central point of the exercise may have been missed-yes, the future is unpredictable exclamation point However, the objective of prediction is secondary. The objective of understanding the dynamic forces of change is primary exclamation point With this view of recent history, it is perhaps appropriate to pause and think about the future of the petroleum industry. The future as shaped by political, energy, economic, environmental and technological forces will direct our lives and markets during this decade. Most importantly, what will be the direction that successful businesses take to remain competitive in a global environment? These are interesting issues worthy of provocative thoughts and innovative ideas

Time orientation, planning horizons and responsibility into the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Svenson, O.; Nilsson, G.

1988-01-01

Subjects of four categories (social science students, engineering students, retired people and nuclear waste experts) were asked about past events, planning, risks and future time with emphasis on energy related issues and in particular questions concerning spent nuclear waste. Among, the results reported it was found that events in the past were located more or less correctly and that events further back systematically too close to the present. Today's responsibility into the future was judged to cover 3 to 6 generations ahead and an adequate planning horizon for a local community to be on the average 11 to 14 years. Adequate planning horizons for the handling of spent nuclear fuel were judged to be from 100 to 500 years. The responsibility for effects of today's decisions was judged to be from about 100 to 300 years into the future for environmental pollution and from about 50 to 600 years for nuclear waste. However, non-negliqable proportions of the subjects choose a more moral standpoint and gave answers indicating that responsibility had to be unlimited. Some sex differences were found and an interaction with age offered as a hypothesis to be investigated in the future. Interrelations between clusters of questions revealed some links from past time and planning to judgements of environmental and nuclear power related risks. (orig.)

Forecasting with quantitative methods the impact of special events in time series

OpenAIRE

Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos

2010-01-01

Abstract Quantitative methods are very successful for producing baseline forecasts of time series; however these models fail to forecast neither the timing nor the impact of special events such as promotions or strikes. In most of the cases the timing of such events is not known so they are usually referred as shocks (economics) or special events (forecasting). Sometimes the timing of such events is known a priori (i.e. a future promotion); but even then the impact of the forthcom...

Phenomenal characteristics associated with projecting oneself back into the past and forward into the future: influence of valence and temporal distance.

Science.gov (United States)

D'Argembeau, Arnaud; Van der Linden, Martial

2004-12-01

As humans, we frequently engage in mental time travel, reliving past experiences and imagining possible future events. This study examined whether similar factors affect the subjective experience associated with remembering the past and imagining the future. Participants mentally "re-experienced" or "pre-experienced" positive and negative events that differed in their temporal distance from the present (close versus distant), and then rated the phenomenal characteristics (i.e., sensorial, contextual, and emotional details) associated with their representations. For both past and future, representations of positive events were associated with a greater feeling of re-experiencing (or pre-experiencing) than representations of negative events. In addition, representations of temporally close events (both past and future) contained more sensorial and contextual details, and generated a stronger feeling of re-experiencing (or pre-experiencing) than representations of temporally distant events. It is suggested that the way we both remember our past and imagine our future is constrained by our current goals.

Event and Apparent Horizon Finders for 3 + 1 Numerical Relativity.

Science.gov (United States)

Thornburg, Jonathan

2007-01-01

Event and apparent horizons are key diagnostics for the presence and properties of black holes. In this article I review numerical algorithms and codes for finding event and apparent horizons in numerically-computed spacetimes, focusing on calculations done using the 3 + 1 ADM formalism. The event horizon of an asymptotically-flat spacetime is the boundary between those events from which a future-pointing null geodesic can reach future null infinity and those events from which no such geodesic exists. The event horizon is a (continuous) null surface in spacetime. The event horizon is defined nonlocally in time : it is a global property of the entire spacetime and must be found in a separate post-processing phase after all (or at least the nonstationary part) of spacetime has been numerically computed. There are three basic algorithms for finding event horizons, based on integrating null geodesics forwards in time, integrating null geodesics backwards in time, and integrating null surfaces backwards in time. The last of these is generally the most efficient and accurate. In contrast to an event horizon, an apparent horizon is defined locally in time in a spacelike slice and depends only on data in that slice, so it can be (and usually is) found during the numerical computation of a spacetime. A marginally outer trapped surface (MOTS) in a slice is a smooth closed 2-surface whose future-pointing outgoing null geodesics have zero expansion Θ. An apparent horizon is then defined as a MOTS not contained in any other MOTS. The MOTS condition is a nonlinear elliptic partial differential equation (PDE) for the surface shape, containing the ADM 3-metric, its spatial derivatives, and the extrinsic curvature as coefficients. Most "apparent horizon" finders actually find MOTSs. There are a large number of apparent horizon finding algorithms, with differing trade-offs between speed, robustness, accuracy, and ease of programming. In axisymmetry, shooting algorithms work well

Medial temporal lobe damage causes deficits in episodic memory and episodic future thinking not attributable to deficits in narrative construction.

Science.gov (United States)

Race, Elizabeth; Keane, Margaret M; Verfaellie, Mieke

2011-07-13

The medial temporal lobe (MTL) makes critical contributions to episodic memory, but its contributions to episodic future thinking remain a matter of debate. By one view, imagining future events relies on MTL mechanisms that also support memory for past events. Alternatively, it has recently been suggested that future thinking is independent of MTL-mediated processes and can be supported by regions outside the MTL. The current study investigated the nature and necessity of MTL involvement in imagining the future and tested the novel hypothesis that the MTL contributes to future thinking by supporting online binding processes related to narrative construction. Human amnesic patients with well characterized MTL damage and healthy controls constructed narratives about (1) future events, (2) past events, and (3) visually presented pictures. While all three tasks place similar demands on narrative construction, only the past and future conditions require memory/future thinking to mentally generate relevant narrative information. Patients produced impoverished descriptions of both past and future events but were unimpaired at producing detailed picture narratives. In addition, future-thinking performance positively correlated with episodic memory performance but did not correlate with picture narrative performance. Finally, future-thinking impairments were present when MTL lesions were restricted to the hippocampus and did not depend on the presence of neural damage outside the MTL. These results indicate that the ability to generate and maintain a detailed narrative is preserved in amnesia and suggest that a common MTL mechanism supports both episodic memory and episodic future thinking.

Stimulus Evaluation, Event Preparation, and Motor Action Planning in Young Patients With Mild Spastic Cerebral Palsy : An Event-Related Brain Potential Study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hakkarainen, Elina; Pirila, Silja; Kaartinen, Jukka; van der Meere, Jaap J.

The study investigated stimulus evaluation time, event preparation, and motor action planning of patients with mild spastic cerebral palsy and a peer control group in the age range of 9 to 18 years. To this end, participants were carrying out a stimulus recognition task. Findings indicated an

European accelerator facilities for single event effects testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Adams, L; Nickson, R; Harboe-Sorensen, R [ESA-ESTEC, Noordwijk (Netherlands); Hajdas, W; Berger, G

1997-03-01

Single event effects are an important hazard to spacecraft and payloads. The advances in component technology, with shrinking dimensions and increasing complexity will give even more importance to single event effects in the future. The ground test facilities are complex and expensive and the complexities of installing a facility are compounded by the requirement that maximum control is to be exercised by users largely unfamiliar with accelerator technology. The PIF and the HIF are the result of experience gained in the field of single event effects testing and represent a unique collaboration between space technology and accelerator experts. Both facilities form an essential part of the European infrastructure supporting space projects. (J.P.N.)

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Mahmud, A.; Hixson, M.; Kleeman, M. J.

2012-08-01

The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM) during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM), the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44) global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000-2006 and 2047-2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM0.1, PM2.5, and PM10 total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV), the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV) and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB). Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events. The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; -3%) and organic carbon (OC; -3%) due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (-3%) and food cooking (-4%). In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH4NO3). In general, climate change caused increased stagnation during future extreme pollution events, leading to higher exposure to diesel engines

Quantifying population exposure to airborne particulate matter during extreme events in California due to climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Mahmud

2012-08-01

Full Text Available The effect of climate change on population-weighted concentrations of particulate matter (PM during extreme pollution events was studied using the Parallel Climate Model (PCM, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF model and the UCD/CIT 3-D photochemical air quality model. A "business as usual" (B06.44 global emissions scenario was dynamically downscaled for the entire state of California between the years 2000–2006 and 2047–2053. Air quality simulations were carried out for 1008 days in each of the present-day and future climate conditions using year-2000 emissions. Population-weighted concentrations of PM_0.1, PM_2.5, and PM₁₀ total mass, components species, and primary source contributions were calculated for California and three air basins: the Sacramento Valley air basin (SV, the San Joaquin Valley air basin (SJV and the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB. Results over annual-average periods were contrasted with extreme events.

The current study found that the change in annual-average population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations due to climate change between 2000 vs. 2050 within any major sub-region in California was not statistically significant. However, climate change did alter the annual-average composition of the airborne particles in the SoCAB, with notable reductions of elemental carbon (EC; −3% and organic carbon (OC; −3% due to increased annual-average wind speeds that diluted primary concentrations from gasoline combustion (−3% and food cooking (−4%. In contrast, climate change caused significant increases in population-weighted PM_2.5 mass concentrations in central California during extreme events. The maximum 24-h average PM_2.5 concentration experienced by an average person during a ten-yr period in the SJV increased by 21% due to enhanced production of secondary particulate matter (manifested as NH₄NO₃. In general, climate

A search for hadronic events with low thrust and an isolated lepton

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behrend, H.J.; Buerger, J.; Criegee, L.; Dainton, J.B.; Fenner, H.; Field, J.H.; Franke, G.; Meyer, J.; Schroeder, V.; Timm, U.; Winter, G.G.; Zimmermann, W.; Bussey, P.J.; Buttar, C.; Campbell, A.J.; Hendry, D.; McCurrach, G.; Scarr, J.M.; Skillicorn, I.O.; Smith, K.M.; Ahme, J.; Blobel, V.; Feindt, M.; Harjes, J.; Peters, J.H.; Poppe, M.; Spitzer, H.; Boer, W. de; Buschhorn, G.; Grindhammer, G.; Gunderson, B.; Kiesling, C.; Kotthaus, R.; Kroha, H.; Lueers, D.; Oberlack, H.; Schacht, P.; Shooshtari, G.; Wiedenmann, W.; Davier, M.; Grivaz, J.F.; Haissinski, J.; Janot, P.; Journe, V.; Le Diberder, F.; Spadafora, A.; Veillet, J.J.; Cozzika, G.; Ducros, Y.; Lavagne, Y.; Ould Saada, F.; Zacek, J.; Alexander, G.; Bella, G.; Gnat, Y.; Grunhaus, J.; Klatchko, A.; Levy, A.

1987-01-01

Using the CELLO detector at the PETRA e + e - storage ring a search for hadronic events with low thrust and an isolated lepton has been carried out. The rate of such events and the thrust distribution of inclusive lepton events show no evidence for a threshold of new sources of inclusive lepton events at the highest PETRA energies. For √s > 46.3 GeV we observe one muon event of the above type, compared to an expectation of 0.8±0.2 events from lower energy data. We do not observe any electron event of this class at the highest PETRA energies. The CELLO data thus do not support the observations of the MARK-J and JADE collaborations of an excess of muon events of the above type at √s > 46.3 GeV. (orig.)

An Oracle-based event index for ATLAS

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00083337; The ATLAS collaboration; Dimitrov, Gancho

2017-01-01

The ATLAS Eventlndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS (relational database management system), the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We’ve indexed about 26 billion real data events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data with other complementary metadata in AT...

Study of the peculiarities of multiparticle production via event-by-event analysis in asymmetric nucleus-nucleus interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Fedosimova, Anastasiya; Gaitinov, Adigam; Grushevskaya, Ekaterina; Lebedev, Igor

2017-06-01

In this work the study on the peculiarities of multiparticle production in interactions of asymmetric nuclei to search for unusual features of such interactions, is performed. A research of long-range and short-range multiparticle correlations in the pseudorapidity distribution of secondary particles on the basis of analysis of individual interactions of nuclei of 197 Au at energy 10.7 AGeV with photoemulsion nuclei, is carried out. Events with long-range multiparticle correlations (LC), short-range multiparticle correlations (SC) and mixed type (MT) in pseudorapidity distribution of secondary particles, are selected by the Hurst method in accordance with Hurst curve behavior. These types have significantly different characteristics. At first, they have different fragmentation parameters. Events of LC type are processes of full destruction of the projectile nucleus, in which multicharge fragments are absent. In events of mixed type several multicharge fragments of projectile nucleus are discovered. Secondly, these two types have significantly different multiplicity distribution. The mean multiplicity of LC type events is significantly more than in mixed type events. On the basis of research of the dependence of multiplicity versus target-nuclei fragments number for events of various types it is revealed, that the most considerable multiparticle correlations are observed in interactions of the mixed type, which correspond to the central collisions of gold nuclei and nuclei of CNO-group, i.e. nuclei with strongly asymmetric volume, nuclear mass, charge, etc. Such events are characterised by full destruction of the target-nucleus and the disintegration of the projectile-nucleus on several multi-charged fragments.

Study of the peculiarities of multiparticle production via event-by-event analysis in asymmetric nucleus-nucleus interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fedosimova Anastasiya

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this work the study on the peculiarities of multiparticle production in interactions of asymmetric nuclei to search for unusual features of such interactions, is performed. A research of long-range and short-range multiparticle correlations in the pseudorapidity distribution of secondary particles on the basis of analysis of individual interactions of nuclei of 197 Au at energy 10.7 AGeV with photoemulsion nuclei, is carried out. Events with long-range multiparticle correlations (LC, short-range multiparticle correlations (SC and mixed type (MT in pseudorapidity distribution of secondary particles, are selected by the Hurst method in accordance with Hurst curve behavior. These types have significantly different characteristics. At first, they have different fragmentation parameters. Events of LC type are processes of full destruction of the projectile nucleus, in which multicharge fragments are absent. In events of mixed type several multicharge fragments of projectile nucleus are discovered. Secondly, these two types have significantly different multiplicity distribution. The mean multiplicity of LC type events is significantly more than in mixed type events. On the basis of research of the dependence of multiplicity versus target-nuclei fragments number for events of various types it is revealed, that the most considerable multiparticle correlations are observed in interactions of the mixed type, which correspond to the central collisions of gold nuclei and nuclei of CNO-group, i.e. nuclei with strongly asymmetric volume, nuclear mass, charge, etc. Such events are characterised by full destruction of the target-nucleus and the disintegration of the projectile-nucleus on several multi-charged fragments.

Possible impacts of climate change on freezing rain in south-central Canada using downscaled future climate scenarios

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. S. Cheng

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Freezing rain is a major atmospheric hazard in mid-latitude nations of the globe. Among all Canadian hydrometeorological hazards, freezing rain is associated with the highest damage costs per event. Using synoptic weather typing to identify the occurrence of freezing rain events, this study estimates changes in future freezing rain events under future climate scenarios for south-central Canada. Synoptic weather typing consists of principal components analysis, an average linkage clustering procedure (i.e., a hierarchical agglomerative cluster method, and discriminant function analysis (a nonhierarchical method. Meteorological data used in the analysis included hourly surface observations from 15 selected weather stations and six atmospheric levels of six-hourly National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP upper-air reanalysis weather variables for the winter months (November–April of 1958/59–2000/01. A statistical downscaling method was used to downscale four general circulation model (GCM scenarios to the selected weather stations. Using downscaled scenarios, discriminant function analysis was used to project the occurrence of future weather types. The within-type frequency of future freezing rain events is assumed to be directly proportional to the change in frequency of future freezing rain-related weather types The results showed that with warming temperatures in a future climate, percentage increases in the occurrence of freezing rain events in the north of the study area are likely to be greater than those in the south. By the 2050s, freezing rain events for the three colder months (December–February could increase by about 85% (95% confidence interval – CI: ±13%, 60% (95% CI: ±9%, and 40% (95% CI: ±6% in northern Ontario, eastern Ontario (including Montreal, Quebec, and southern Ontario, respectively. The increase by the 2080s could be even greater: about 135% (95% CI: ±20%, 95% (95% CI: ±13%, and 45% (95% CI: ±9

UK experience of managing a radioactive materials transport event database

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barton, N.J.; Barrett, J.A.

1999-01-01

A description is given of the transport event database RAMTED and the related annual accident and incident reports. This database covers accidents and incidents involving the transport of radioactive material in the UK from 1958 to the present day. The paper discusses the history and content of the database, the origin of event data contained in it, the criteria for inclusion and future developments. (author)

Analysis of future drought characteristics in China using the regional climate model CCLM

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Jinlong; Zhai, Jianqing; Jiang, Tong; Wang, Yanjun; Li, Xiucang; Wang, Run; Xiong, Ming; Su, Buda; Fischer, Thomas

2018-01-01

In this paper, the intensity, area and duration of future droughts in China are analyzed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). The SPI and SPEI are used to evaluate the simulation ability of drought characteristics with the regional climate model COSMO-CLM (CCLM). The projected intensity and duration of future drought events are analyzed for the period 2016-2050 under three different respective concentration pathways (RCPs). The simulated and projected drought events are analyzed by applying the intensity-area-duration method. The results show that CCLM has a robust capability to simulate the average drought characteristics, while some regional disparities are not well captured, mainly the simulation of more drought events of shorter duration in Northwest China. For the future period 2016-2050, more intense dryness conditions are projected for China. An increase in evapotranspiration is found all over China, while a reduction in precipitation is apparent in the southern river basins. The increase in evapotranspiration plays an important role in the changes of future droughts over the northern river basins and southern river basins. Under RCP2.6, drought events of longer duration and with higher frequency are projected for the southwest and southeast of China. Under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, a continuing tendency to more dry conditions is projected along a dryness band stretching from the southwest to the northeast of China. More frequent drought events of longer duration are projected in the southwestern river basins. For all future droughts, larger extents are projected, especially for events with long-term duration. The projected long-term drought events will occur more often and more severe than during the baseline period, and their central locations will likely shift towards Southeast China. The results of this study can be used to initiate and strengthen drought adaptation measures at

Experience feedback from event reports: the human contribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Swaton, E.; Tolstykh, V.

1990-01-01

Analysis of reported events reveals that in a large number of areas human intervention contributed to the initiation and/or development of these events. Since an accident at any nuclear power plant can have a world-wide effect on public acceptance, the need for attentive and reliable human behavior assumes an even greater significance. The identification of areas where human interaction can have an impact on safe operation is mainly relying on the analysis of events reported to the nuclear community. Any substantial compilation of safety significant operational events such as contained in the IAEA-IRS (Incident Reporting System) is bound to provide valuable and factual insights into problem areas, their origin, development, impact and some remedial actions. Thus a systematic analysis has been carried out on over 200 events where a human contribution could be identified. Some events of particular interest will be discussed and furthermore generic lessons will be presented. In addition the Assessment of Safety Significant Event Technique (ASSET) developed within IAEA which provides a structured methodology to identify not only the direct cause explaining why an individual failed but more important, insights on the root causes explaining why this latent deficiency was not detected earlier through the plant surveillance programme was applied. (author)

Climate Change Impacts on Future Wave Climate around the UK

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William G. Bennett

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Understanding the changes in future storm wave climate is crucial for coastal managers and planners to make informed decisions required for sustainable coastal management and for the renewable energy industry. To investigate potential future changes to storm climate around the UK, global wave model outputs of two time slice experiments were analysed with 1979–2009 representing present conditions and 2075–2100 representing the future climate. Three WaveNet buoy sites around the United Kingdom, which represent diverse site conditions and have long datasets, were chosen for this study. A storm event definition (Dissanayake et al., 2015 was used to separate meteorologically-independent storm events from wave data, which in turn allowed storm wave characteristics to be analysed. Model outputs were validated through a comparison of the modelled storm data with observed storm data for overlapping periods. Although no consistent trends across all future clusters were observed, there were no significant increases in storm wave height, storm count or storm power in the future, at least according to the global wave projection results provided by the chosen model.

[Adverse events prevention ability].

Science.gov (United States)

Aparo, Ugo Luigi; Aparo, Andrea

2007-03-01

The issue of how to address medical errors is the key to improve the health care system performances. Operational evidence collected in the last five years shows that the solution is only partially linked to future technological developments. Cultural and organisational changes are mandatory to help to manage and drastically reduce the adverse events in health care organisations. Classical management, merely based on coordination and control, is inadequate. Proactive, self-organising network based structures must be put in place and managed using adaptive, fast evolving management tools.

Jet evolution in a dense medium: event-by-event fluctuations and multi-particle correlations

Science.gov (United States)

Escobedo, Miguel A.; Iancu, Edmond

2017-11-01

We study the gluon distribution produced via successive medium-induced branchings by an energetic jet propagating through a weakly-coupled quark-gluon plasma. We show that under suitable approximations, the jet evolution is a Markovian stochastic process, which is exactly solvable. For this process, we construct exact analytic solutions for all the n-point correlation functions describing the gluon distribution in the space of energy [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 05 (2016) 008. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1601.03629, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP05(2016)008, M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Multi-particle correlations and KNO scaling in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 12 (2016) 104. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1609.06104, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP12(2016)104]. Using these results, we study the event-by-event distribution of the energy lost by the jet at large angles and of the multiplicities of the soft particles which carry this energy. We find that the event-by-event fluctuations are huge: the standard deviation in the energy loss is parametrically as large as its mean value [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 05 (2016) 008. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1601.03629, doi:http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP05(2016)008]. This has important consequences for the phenomenology of di-jet asymmetry in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC: it implies that the fluctuations in the branching process can contribute to the measured asymmetry on an equal footing with the geometry of the di-jet event (i.e. as the difference between the in-medium path lengths of the two jets). We compute the higher moments of the multiplicity distribution and identify a remarkable regularity known as Koba-Nielsen-Olesen (KNO) scaling [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Multi-particle correlations and KNO scaling in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 12 (2016) 104. arXiv:arxiv:arXiv:1609.06104, doi

Jet evolution in a dense medium: event-by-event fluctuations and multi-particle correlations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escobedo, Miguel A.; Iancu, Edmond

2017-01-01

We study the gluon distribution produced via successive medium-induced branchings by an energetic jet propagating through a weakly-coupled quark-gluon plasma. We show that under suitable approximations, the jet evolution is a Markovian stochastic process, which is exactly solvable. For this process, we construct exact analytic solutions for all the n-point correlation functions describing the gluon distribution in the space of energy [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 05 (2016) 008. arXiv: (arXiv:1601.03629), doi: (http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP05(2016)008), M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Multi-particle correlations and KNO scaling in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 12 (2016) 104. arXiv: (arXiv:1609.06104), doi: (http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP12(2016)104)]. Using these results, we study the event-by-event distribution of the energy lost by the jet at large angles and of the multiplicities of the soft particles which carry this energy. We find that the event-by-event fluctuations are huge: the standard deviation in the energy loss is parametrically as large as its mean value [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Event-by-event fluctuations in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 05 (2016) 008. arXiv: (arXiv:1601.03629), doi: (http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/JHEP05(2016)008)]. This has important consequences for the phenomenology of di-jet asymmetry in Pb+Pb collisions at the LHC: it implies that the fluctuations in the branching process can contribute to the measured asymmetry on an equal footing with the geometry of the di-jet event (i.e. as the difference between the in-medium path lengths of the two jets). We compute the higher moments of the multiplicity distribution and identify a remarkable regularity known as Koba-Nielsen-Olesen (KNO) scaling [M. A. Escobedo, E. Iancu, Multi-particle correlations and KNO scaling in the medium-induced jet evolution, JHEP 12 (2016) 104. arXiv: (arXiv:1609.06104), doi: (http

HEPTech Academia – Industry Matching Event on Control Systems for Accelerators and Detectors

CERN Multimedia

Anastasios Charitonidis (FP/KT), on behalf of the organizing committee

2013-01-01

The HEPTech AIME (Academia – Industry Matching Event) on Controls for accelerators and detectors will take place from 2 to 3 December in Athens, Greece.   The HEPTech network invites you to Demokritos NCSR to participate in an event that aims to bring together Academia and Industry to share ideas and potential applications of Controls Technology. The event will provide an overview of current Controls Systems for large scale projects including the LHC, the CMS and ATLAS detectors, medical accelerator facilities and contributions from companies active in these fields. CERN Computer Centre. The programme will also address some of the challenges faced by future High Energy Physics projects in the controls area and provide a glimpse into the future requirements of research infrastructures such as the European Spallation Source (ESS), and the Extreme Light Infrastructure (ELI), while exploring different possible approaches to the commercialisation of controls technology. The event ...

IPEEE review of external events of the Asco I nuclear plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aleman, A.; Canadell, F.; Beltran, F.; Pifarre, D.; Hernandez, H.; Gasca, C.

2012-01-01

During the risk analysis update of Asco NPP (2010), it has been carried out a review of the vulnerabilities against severe accidents caused by external events (individual Plant Examination of external Events, IPEEE). The assessment has includent analysis of accidents in industrial and military facilities nearby and transportation accidents (i.e., rail, road and aircraft impact) release of hazardous materials on site, external flooding, turbine missiles and strong winds. (Author)

LOS ALAMOS: Hadron future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ernst, David J.

1992-01-01

At a Workshop on the Future of Hadron Facilities, held on 15-16 August at Los Alamos National Laboratory, several speakers pointed out that the US physics community carrying out fixed target experiments with hadron beam had not been as successful with funding as it deserved. To rectify this, they said, the community should be better organized and present a more united front

LOS ALAMOS: Hadron future

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ernst, David J.

1992-11-15

At a Workshop on the Future of Hadron Facilities, held on 15-16 August at Los Alamos National Laboratory, several speakers pointed out that the US physics community carrying out fixed target experiments with hadron beam had not been as successful with funding as it deserved. To rectify this, they said, the community should be better organized and present a more united front.

Behavioral control blunts reactions to contemporaneous and future adverse events: Medial prefrontal cortex plasticity and a corticostriatal network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven F. Maier

2015-01-01

Full Text Available It has been known for many years that the ability to exert behavioral control over an adverse event blunts the behavioral and neurochemical impact of the event. More recently, it has become clear that the experience of behavioral control over adverse events also produces enduring changes that reduce the effects of subsequent negative events, even if they are uncontrollable and quite different from the original event controlled. This review focuses on the mechanism by which control both limits the impact of the stressor being experienced and produces enduring, trans-situational “immunization”. The evidence will suggest that control is detected by a corticostriatal circuit involving the ventral medial prefrontal cortex (mPFC and the posterior dorsomedial striatum (DMS. Once control is detected, other mPFC neurons that project to stress-responsive brainstem (dorsal raphe nucleus, DRN and limbic (amygdala structures exert top–down inhibitory control over the activation of these structures that is produced by the adverse event. These structures, such as the DRN and amygdala, in turn regulate the proximate mediators of the behavioral and physiological responses produced by adverse events, and so control blunts these responses. Importantly, the joint occurrence of control and adverse events seems to produce enduring plastic changes in the top–down inhibitory mPFC system such that this system is now activated by later adverse events even if they are uncontrollable, thereby reducing the impact of these events. Other issues are discussed that include a whether other processes such as safety signals and exercise, that lead to resistance/resilience, also use the mPFC circuitry or do so in other ways; b whether control has similar effects and neural mediation in humans, and c the relationship of this work to clinical phenomena.

Discounting risks in the far future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lind, Niels

2007-01-01

Risks to life and health in the future must be discounted in quantitative risk analysis. Yet, risks in the distant future become trivialized if any reasonable constant interest rate is used. Our responsibility toward future generations rules out such drastic discounting. A solution to this problem is proposed here, resting on the ethical principle that our duty with respect to saving lives is the same to all generations, whether in the near or far future. It is shown that when a choice between prospects involving different risks has a financing horizon T, then ordinary principles of discounting apply up to this time T, while no further discounting is justifiable after T. The principle implies that risk events beyond the financing horizon should be valued as if they occurred at the financing horizon

Use of the event tree method for evaluate the safety of radioactive facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hernandez S, A.; Cornejo D, N.; Callis F, E.

2006-01-01

The work shows the validity of the use of Trees of Events like a quantitative method appropriate to carry out evaluations of radiological safety. Its were took like base the evaluations of safety of five Radiotherapy Departments, carried out in the mark of the process of authorization of these facilities. The risk values were obtained by means of the combination of the probabilities of occurrence of the events with its consequences. The use of the method allowed to suggest improvements to the existent safety systems, as well as to confirm that the current regulator requirements for this type of facilities to lead to practices with acceptable risk levels. (Author)

First events and prospects at the Fermilab collider

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Binkley, M.

1986-03-01

A brief description of the Collider Detector at Fermilab (CDF) is given including the detector components and the data acquisition system. The first test run, the first events, and the performance of the detector are discussed. Finally the prospects for future running are reviewed

Anticipating and addressing event-specific alcohol consumption among adolescents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Simone Pettigrew

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Various specific events and celebrations are associated with excessive alcohol consumption and related harms. End-of-school celebrations such as Schoolies in Australia are of particular concern given high levels of documented harm among underage and young drinkers. The present study investigated high school students’ expectations of their Schoolies celebrations to inform future interventions to reduce adverse outcomes among members of this vulnerable group and other young people involved in similar rites of passage. Methods A link to an online survey was distributed via high schools and Schoolies-related websites. The survey included qualitative questions that invited respondents to discuss (i aspects of Schoolies they were looking forward to most and least and (ii their perceptions of the likely consequences if they refrained from consuming alcohol during the event. In total, 435 students provided responses. Results Respondents discussed the role of Schoolies in marking their transition to adulthood. Their comments revealed a cross-temporal focus indicating that Schoolies is simultaneously symbolic of the past, present, and future. Through its ability to enhance social interaction, alcohol was perceived to have a vital role in realising the potential of this event to signify and facilitate this temporal progression. Conclusions Results suggest interventions that treat Schoolies as an isolated event that occurs in specific locations may fail to appreciate the extent to which these events transcend time for those involved. Instead, harm reduction is likely to involve a reconceptualisation of the event among both participants and authority figures to facilitate the provision of alternative pastimes to drinking during Schoolies that yield similar social benefits.

Event-Driven Technology to Generate Relevant Collections of Near-Realtime Data

Science.gov (United States)

Graves, S. J.; Keiser, K.; Nair, U. S.; Beck, J. M.; Ebersole, S.

2017-12-01

Getting the right data when it is needed continues to be a challenge for researchers and decision makers. Event-Driven Data Delivery (ED3), funded by the NASA Applied Science program, is a technology that allows researchers and decision makers to pre-plan what data, information and processes they need to have collected or executed in response to future events. The Information Technology and Systems Center at the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH) has developed the ED3 framework in collaboration with atmospheric scientists at UAH, scientists at the Geological Survey of Alabama, and other federal, state and local stakeholders to meet the data preparedness needs for research, decisions and situational awareness. The ED3 framework supports an API that supports the addition of loosely-coupled, distributed event handlers and data processes. This approach allows the easy addition of new events and data processes so the system can scale to support virtually any type of event or data process. Using ED3's underlying services, applications have been developed that monitor for alerts of registered event types and automatically triggers subscriptions that match new events, providing users with a living "album" of results that can continued to be curated as more information for an event becomes available. This capability can allow users to improve capacity for the collection, creation and use of data and real-time processes (data access, model execution, product generation, sensor tasking, social media filtering, etc), in response to disaster (and other) events by preparing in advance for data and information needs for future events. This presentation will provide an update on the ED3 developments and deployments, and further explain the applicability for utilizing near-realtime data in hazards research, response and situational awareness.

The clinical utility of lipid profile and positive troponin in predicting future cardiac events

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arun Kumar

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Objective: To study the usefulness of traditional lipid profile levels in screening subjects who had developed chest pain due to cardiac event as indicated by a positive troponin I (TnI test. Methods: In this retrospective study data of the 740 patients presented to the emergency department with symptoms of cardiac ischemia that underwent both troponin and lipid profiles tests were compared with the lipid profiles of 411 normal healthy subjects (controls. The troponin was detected qualitatively when a specimen contains TnI above the 99th percentile (TnI >0.5 ng/ mL. The total cholesterol (TC, high density lipoproteins (HDL, very low density lipoproteins (VLDL, and triacyl glycerol (TG levels were also analyzed and low density lipoprotein level (LDL was calculated using Friedewald ’s formula. Results: Patients with chest pain and positive troponin test (with confirmed cardiac event were found to have significantly elevated levels of TC, TG, LDL and significantly reduced HDL levels when compared to the patients who experienced only chest pain (negative troponin and healthy controls. Conclusions: Traditional lipid profile levels still can be used in screening populations to identify the subjects with high risk of developing cardiac event which is identified by highly sensitive and specific positive troponin test.

Number distribution of leakage neutrons for single neutron emission event and one source emission event in multiplying medium for two variables - a GEANT4 study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roy, Arup Singha; Raman, Anand; Chaudhury, Probal; Thomas, Renju G.

2018-01-01

A quantitative knowledge about the neutron multiplying character of a neutron multiplying medium such as High enriched Uranium (HEU), Weapon Graded plutonium (WGPu) and similar special nuclear materials is essential for improving the probability of detection of these materials to check against illicit trafficking. The objective of this study is to gain a deeper insight in to the neutron and gamma multiplication behaviour of these materials. The leakage number distribution of neutron and gamma initiated by a source emission event (Spontaneous Fission) as well as single neutron emission event has been obtained in the course of this study. The computations for this study were carried out through GEANT4 simulation and also with the help of FREYA incorporated into it. This helped to carry out a detailed analysis of each history more realistically and obtain more reliable results

Medial Temporal Lobe Damage Causes Deficits in Episodic Memory and Episodic Future Thinking Not Attributable to Deficits in Narrative Construction

Science.gov (United States)

Race, Elizabeth; Keane, Margaret M.; Verfaellie, Mieke

2015-01-01

The medial temporal lobe (MTL) makes critical contributions to episodic memory, but its contributions to episodic future thinking remain a matter of debate. By one view, imagining future events relies on MTL mechanisms that also support memory for past events. Alternatively, it has recently been suggested that future thinking is independent of MTL-mediated processes and can be supported by regions outside the MTL. The current study investigated the nature and necessity of MTL involvement in imagining the future and tested the novel hypothesis that the MTL contributes to future thinking by supporting online binding processes related to narrative construction. Human amnesic patients with well-characterized MTL damage and healthy controls constructed narratives about (a) future events, (b) past events, and (c) visually-presented pictures. While all three tasks place similar demands on narrative construction, only the past and future conditions require memory/future thinking to mentally generate relevant narrative information. Patients produced impoverished descriptions of both past and future events but were unimpaired at producing detailed picture narratives. In addition, future-thinking performance positively correlated with episodic memory performance but did not correlate with picture narrative performance. Finally, future-thinking impairments were present when MTL lesions were restricted to the hippocampus and did not depend on the presence of neural damage outside the MTL. These results indicate that the ability to generate and maintain a detailed narrative is preserved in amnesia and suggest that a common MTL mechanism supports both episodic memory and episodic future thinking. PMID:21753003

Rendering visual events as sounds: Spatial attention capture by auditory augmented reality.

Science.gov (United States)

Stone, Scott A; Tata, Matthew S

2017-01-01

Many salient visual events tend to coincide with auditory events, such as seeing and hearing a car pass by. Information from the visual and auditory senses can be used to create a stable percept of the stimulus. Having access to related coincident visual and auditory information can help for spatial tasks such as localization. However not all visual information has analogous auditory percepts, such as viewing a computer monitor. Here, we describe a system capable of detecting and augmenting visual salient events into localizable auditory events. The system uses a neuromorphic camera (DAVIS 240B) to detect logarithmic changes of brightness intensity in the scene, which can be interpreted as salient visual events. Participants were blindfolded and asked to use the device to detect new objects in the scene, as well as determine direction of motion for a moving visual object. Results suggest the system is robust enough to allow for the simple detection of new salient stimuli, as well accurately encoding direction of visual motion. Future successes are probable as neuromorphic devices are likely to become faster and smaller in the future, making this system much more feasible.

Rendering visual events as sounds: Spatial attention capture by auditory augmented reality.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scott A Stone

Full Text Available Many salient visual events tend to coincide with auditory events, such as seeing and hearing a car pass by. Information from the visual and auditory senses can be used to create a stable percept of the stimulus. Having access to related coincident visual and auditory information can help for spatial tasks such as localization. However not all visual information has analogous auditory percepts, such as viewing a computer monitor. Here, we describe a system capable of detecting and augmenting visual salient events into localizable auditory events. The system uses a neuromorphic camera (DAVIS 240B to detect logarithmic changes of brightness intensity in the scene, which can be interpreted as salient visual events. Participants were blindfolded and asked to use the device to detect new objects in the scene, as well as determine direction of motion for a moving visual object. Results suggest the system is robust enough to allow for the simple detection of new salient stimuli, as well accurately encoding direction of visual motion. Future successes are probable as neuromorphic devices are likely to become faster and smaller in the future, making this system much more feasible.

The association of incidentally detected heart valve calcification with future cardiovascular events

OpenAIRE

Gondrie, Martijn J. A.; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jacobs, Peter C.; Oen, Ay L.; Mali, Willem P. Th. M.

2010-01-01

Objectives This study aims to investigate the prognostic value of incidental aortic valve calcification (AVC), mitral valve calcification (MVC) and mitral annular calcification (MAC) for cardiovascular events and non-rheumatic valve disease in particular on routine diagnostic chest CT. Methods The study followed a case-cohort design. 10410 patients undergoing chest CT were followed for a median period of 17 months. Patients referred for cardiovascular disease were excluded. A random sample of...

Inclusion of GENIE as neutrino event generator for INO ICAL

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2017-02-22

Feb 22, 2017 ... be the largest experimental facility of basic science in India which will carry ..... further support the use of GENIE over Nuance, and also highlight the .... A neutrino event generator is a vital component in the simulation studies ...

Initiating events and accidental sequences taken into account in the CAREM reactor design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kay, J.M.; Felizia, E.R.; Navarro, N.R.; Caruso, G.J.

1990-01-01

The advance made in the nuclear security evaluation of the CAREM reactor is presented. It was carried out using the Security Probabilistic Analysis (SPA). The latter takes into account the different phases of identification and solution of initiating events and the qualitative development of event trees. The method of identification of initiating events is the Master Logical Diagram (MLD), whose deductive basis makes it appropriate for a new design like the one described. The qualitative development of the event trees associated to the identified initiating events, allows identification of those accidental sequences which are to have the security systems in the reactor. (Author) [es

Temperature sensitivity of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands

Science.gov (United States)

Schroeer, Katharina; Kirchengast, Gottfried

2016-04-01

How will convective precipitation intensities and patterns evolve in a warming climate on a regional to local scale? Studies on the scaling of precipitation intensities with temperature are used to test observational and climate model data against the hypothesis that the change of precipitation with temperature will essentially follow the Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) equation, which corresponds to a rate of increase of the water holding capacity of the atmosphere by 6-7 % per Kelvin (CC rate). A growing number of studies in various regions and with varying approaches suggests that the overall picture of the temperature-precipitation relationship is heterogeneous, with scaling rates shearing off the CC rate in both upward and downward directions. In this study we investigate the temperature scaling of extreme precipitation events in the south-eastern Alpine forelands of Austria (SEA) based on a dense rain gauge net of 188 stations, with sub-daily precipitation measurements since about 1990 used at 10-min resolution. Parts of the study region are European hot-spots for severe hailstorms and the region, which is in part densely populated and intensively cultivated, is generally vulnerable to climate extremes. Evidence on historical extremely heavy short-time and localized precipitation events of several hundred mm of rain in just a few hours, resulting in destructive flash flooding, underline these vulnerabilities. Heavy precipitation is driven by Mediterranean moisture advection, enhanced by the orographic lifting at the Alpine foothills, and hence trends in positive sea surface temperature anomalies might carry significant risk of amplifying future extreme precipitation events. In addition, observations from the highly instrumented subregion of south-eastern Styria indicate a strong and robust long-term warming trend in summer of about 0.7°C per decade over 1971-2015, concomitant with a significant increase in the annual number of heat days. The combination of these

An analysis of post-event processing in social anxiety disorder.

Science.gov (United States)

Brozovich, Faith; Heimberg, Richard G

2008-07-01

Research has demonstrated that self-focused thoughts and negative affect have a reciprocal relationship [Mor, N., Winquist, J. (2002). Self-focused attention and negative affect: A meta-analysis. Psychological Bulletin, 128, 638-662]. In the anxiety disorder literature, post-event processing has emerged as a specific construction of repetitive self-focused thoughts that pertain to social anxiety disorder. Post-event processing can be defined as an individual's repeated consideration and potential reconstruction of his performance following a social situation. Post-event processing can also occur when an individual anticipates a social or performance event and begins to brood about other, past social experiences. The present review examined the post-event processing literature in an attempt to organize and highlight the significant results. The methodologies employed to study post-event processing have included self-report measures, daily diaries, social or performance situations created in the laboratory, and experimental manipulations of post-event processing or anticipation of an upcoming event. Directions for future research on post-event processing are discussed.

Gender Differences in Early Mother-Child Interactions: Talking about an Imminent Event.

Science.gov (United States)

Eisenmann, Barbara

1997-01-01

Examines maternal modes of organizing an imminent emotional event, a brief separation from the child. Finds that the mothers displayed two ways of structuring the future event, and these different modes were related statistically to the gender of the child. Investigates how the mother directs the child's mental processes by using augments of…

Early life events carry over to influence pre-migratory condition in a free-living songbird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Greg W Mitchell

Full Text Available Conditions experienced during development can have long-term consequences for individual success. In migratory songbirds, the proximate mechanisms linking early life events and survival are not well understood because tracking individuals across stages of the annual cycle can be extremely challenging. In this paper, we first use a 13 year dataset to demonstrate a positive relationship between 1(st year survival and nestling mass in migratory Savannah sparrows (Passerculus sandwichensis. We also use a brood manipulation experiment to show that nestlings from smaller broods have higher mass in the nest relative to individuals from larger broods. Having established these relationships, we then use three years of field data involving multiple captures of individuals throughout the pre-migratory period and a multi-level path model to examine the hypothesis that conditions during development limit survival during migration by affecting an individual's ability to accumulate sufficient lean tissue and fat mass prior to migration. We found a positive relationship between fat mass during the pre-migratory period (Sept-Oct and nestling mass and a negative indirect relationship between pre-migratory fat mass and fledging date. Our results provide the first evidence that conditions during development limit survival during migration through their effect on fat stores. These results are particularly important given recent evidence showing that body condition of songbirds at fledging is affected by climate change and anthropogenic changes to landscape structure.

Energetics of load carrying in Nepalese porters.

Science.gov (United States)

Bastien, Guillaume J; Schepens, Bénédicte; Willems, Patrick A; Heglund, Norman C

2005-06-17

Nepalese porters routinely carry head-supported loads equal to 100 to 200% of their body weight (Mb) for many days up and down steep mountain footpaths at high altitudes. Previous studies have shown that African women carry head-supported loads of up to 60% of their Mb far more economically than army recruits carrying equivalent loads in backpacks. Here we show that Nepalese porters carry heavier loads even more economically than African women. Female Nepalese porters, for example, carry on average loads that are 10% of their Mb heavier than the maximum loads carried by the African women, yet do so at a 25% smaller metabolic cost.

Oil price assumptions in macroeconomic forecasts: should we follow future market expectations?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coimbra, C.; Esteves, P.S.

2004-01-01

In macroeconomic forecasting, in spite of its important role in price and activity developments, oil prices are usually taken as an exogenous variable, for which assumptions have to be made. This paper evaluates the forecasting performance of futures market prices against the other popular technical procedure, the carry-over assumption. The results suggest that there is almost no difference between opting for futures market prices or using the carry-over assumption for short-term forecasting horizons (up to 12 months), while, for longer-term horizons, they favour the use of futures market prices. However, as futures market prices reflect market expectations for world economic activity, futures oil prices should be adjusted whenever market expectations for world economic growth are different to the values underlying the macroeconomic scenarios, in order to fully ensure the internal consistency of those scenarios. (Author)

STEPS OF THE DESIGN OF CLOUD ORIENTED LEARNING ENVIRONMENT IN THE STUDY OF DATABASES FOR FUTURE TEACHERS OF INFORMATICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oleksandr M. Kryvonos

2018-02-01

Full Text Available The article describes the introduction of cloud services in the educational process of the discipline «Databases» of future teachers of informatics and the design of the cloud oriented learning environment on their basis. An analysis of the domestic experience of forming a cloud oriented learning environment of educational institutions is carried out, given interpretation of concepts «cloud oriented distance learning system», «cloud oriented learning environment in the study of databases», «the design of the cloud oriented learning environment in the study of databases for future teachers of informatics». The following stages of designing COLE are selected and described: targeted, conceptual, meaningful, component, introductory, appraisal-generalization. The structure of the educational interaction of subjects in the study of databases in the conditions of the COLE is developed by the means of the cloud oriented distance learning system Canvas, consisting of communication tools, joint work, and planning of educational events, cloud storages.

An Oracle-based event index for ATLAS

Science.gov (United States)

Gallas, E. J.; Dimitrov, G.; Vasileva, P.; Baranowski, Z.; Canali, L.; Dumitru, A.; Formica, A.; ATLAS Collaboration

2017-10-01

The ATLAS Eventlndex System has amassed a set of key quantities for a large number of ATLAS events into a Hadoop based infrastructure for the purpose of providing the experiment with a number of event-wise services. Collecting this data in one place provides the opportunity to investigate various storage formats and technologies and assess which best serve the various use cases as well as consider what other benefits alternative storage systems provide. In this presentation we describe how the data are imported into an Oracle RDBMS (relational database management system), the services we have built based on this architecture, and our experience with it. We’ve indexed about 26 billion real data events thus far and have designed the system to accommodate future data which has expected rates of 5 and 20 billion events per year. We have found this system offers outstanding performance for some fundamental use cases. In addition, profiting from the co-location of this data with other complementary metadata in ATLAS, the system has been easily extended to perform essential assessments of data integrity and completeness and to identify event duplication, including at what step in processing the duplication occurred.

Retinal oscillations carry visual information to cortex

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kilian Koepsell

2009-04-01

Full Text Available Thalamic relay cells fire action potentials that transmit information from retina to cortex. The amount of information that spike trains encode is usually estimated from the precision of spike timing with respect to the stimulus. Sensory input, however, is only one factor that influences neural activity. For example, intrinsic dynamics, such as oscillations of networks of neurons, also modulate firing pattern. Here, we asked if retinal oscillations might help to convey information to neurons downstream. Specifically, we made whole-cell recordings from relay cells to reveal retinal inputs (EPSPs and thalamic outputs (spikes and then analyzed these events with information theory. Our results show that thalamic spike trains operate as two multiplexed channels. One channel, which occupies a low frequency band (<30 Hz, is encoded by average firing rate with respect to the stimulus and carries information about local changes in the visual field over time. The other operates in the gamma frequency band (40-80 Hz and is encoded by spike timing relative to retinal oscillations. At times, the second channel conveyed even more information than the first. Because retinal oscillations involve extensive networks of ganglion cells, it is likely that the second channel transmits information about global features of the visual scene.

Cofrentes NPP self assessment plan. A self-critical effort carried at improving work processes and methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2002-01-01

Because of the reportable events and incidents that occurred during the last refueling and subsequent startup process in the last week of March 2002, the Cofrentes NPP management decided to carry out a Self-Assessment Plan that would focus on an exhaustive evaluation of the most important events and incidents that occurred during the last two refueling and their respective shutdown and startup processes, as well as on an assessment of those Areas in which weaknesses in the Organization's performance had been identified. This article details the process followed in this self-assessment, which was developed between the months of May and July. The main conclusion reveals that, for Iberdrola, the good operation of its nuclear power plants continues to be essential, with safety taking priority over any other operating condition. (Author)

Search for hadronic events with low thrust and an isolated lepton with the CELLO detector

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroha, H.

1987-08-01

Using the CELLO detector at the PETRA e + e - -storage ring, a search for hadronic events with low thrust and an isolated lepton has been carried out. The rate of such events and the thrust distribution of inclusive lepton events show no evidence for a threshold of new sources of inclusive lepton events at the highest PETRA energies. The CELLO data thus do not support the observations of the MARK-J and JADE collaborations of an excess of muon events of this type at √s > 46.3 GeV. (orig.)

Into the future with little past: exploring mental time travel in a patient with damage to the mammillary bodies/fornix.

Science.gov (United States)

Tedder, Jacqui; Miller, Laurie; Tu, Sicong; Hornberger, Michael; Lah, Suncica

2016-02-01

Remembering the past and imaging the future are both manifestations of 'mental time travel'. These processes have been found to be impaired in patients with bilateral hippocampal lesions. Here, we examined the question of whether future thinking is affected by other Papez circuit lesions, namely: damage to the mammillary bodies/fornix. Case (SL) was a 43-year-old woman who developed dense anterograde and retrograde amnesia suddenly, as a result of Wernicke-Korsakoff's syndrome. A region of interest volumetric Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) analysis was performed. We assessed past and future thinking in SL and 11 control subjects of similar age and education with the adapted Autobiographical Interview (AI). Participants also completed a battery of neuropsychological tests. Volumetric MRI analyses revealed severely reduced fornix and mammillary body volumes, but intact hippocampi. SL showed substantial, albeit temporally graded retrograde memory deficits on the adapted AI. Strikingly, whilst SL could not provide any specific details of events from the past two weeks or past two years and had impaired recall of events from her late 30s, her descriptions of potential future events were normal in number of event details and plausibility. This dissociation of past and future events' performance after mammillary body and fornix damage is at odds with the findings of the majority of patients with adult onset hippocampal amnesia. It suggests that these non-hippocampal regions of the Papez circuit are only critical for past event retrieval and not for the generation of possible future events.

Brokers and brokerage in the process of trading in commodity futures markets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eremić Milan B.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available This paper mainly deals with the analysis of a very complex process of brokerage in commodity futures markets. Unlike a classical commodity market in which brokers are not a necessity, sales and purchases in commodity futures markets cannot be carried out without brokers. Brokers who act as agents of buyers and sellers of futures are a necessary condition for trading in organized markets, such as commodity futures markets. The structure of brokers in futures trading is multilayer and involves participants in futures trading from floor brokers, immediate futures traders and the members of clearing and the clearing house itself, on the one hand, to numerous other necessary actors whose activities out of the stock exchange and the clearing house contribute to the efficient functioning of futures market. The fact that transactions between buyers and sellers in futures markets are not carried out directly but through brokers means that the obligations of buyers and sellers are formally conveyed to brokers, providing at the same time the guarantee by the broker that the actual buyer and the actual seller will fulfill their contractual obligations. At the very beginning of futures trading, the relationship between the seller and the buyer is transformed into a relationship between two brokers. Since that moment on, the original relationship is conveyed to higher levels of brokerage reaching the level of the clearing house. In the process of transformation of the buyer-seller relationship and transmitting obligations and guaranteeing their fulfillment, the clearing house itself becomes the buyer relative to all sellers and the seller relative to all buyers. In this way, it guarantees that obligations regarding all transactions in futures market will be fulfilled. The whole process is carried out in accordance with the prescribed procedures conducted on the floor of commodity exchange, in its administrative departments and in the clearing house itself.

Event and Apparent Horizon Finders for 3+1 Numerical Relativity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thornburg Jonathan

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Event and apparent horizons are key diagnostics for the presence and properties of black holes. In this article I review numerical algorithms and codes for finding event and apparent horizons in numerically-computed spacetimes, focusing on calculations done using the 3+1 ADM formalism. The event horizon of an asymptotically-flat spacetime is the boundary between those events from which a future-pointing null geodesic can reach future null infinity and those events from which no such geodesic exists. The event horizon is a (continuous null surface in spacetime. The event horizon is defined nonlocally in time: it is a global property of the entire spacetime and must be found in a separate post-processing phase after all (or at least the nonstationary part of spacetime has been numerically computed.There are three basic algorithms for finding event horizons, based on integrating null geodesics forwards in time, integrating null geodesics backwards in time, and integrating null surfaces backwards in time. The last of these is generally the most efficient and accurate.In contrast to an event horizon, an apparent horizon is defined locally in time in a spacelike slice and depends only on data in that slice, so it can be (and usually is found during the numerical computation of a spacetime. A marginally outer trapped surface (MOTS in a slice is a smooth closed 2-surface whose future-pointing outgoing null geodesics have zero expansion Theta. An apparent horizon is then defined as a MOTS not contained in any other MOTS. The MOTS condition is a nonlinear elliptic partial differential equation (PDE for the surface shape, containing the ADM 3-metric, its spatial derivatives, and the extrinsic curvature as coefficients. Most “apparent horizon” finders actually find MOTSs.There are a large number of apparent horizon finding algorithms, with differing trade-offs between speed, robustness, accuracy, and ease of programming. In axisymmetry, shooting

Japanese issues on the future behavior of the geological environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aoki, Kaz; Nakatsuka, Noboru; Ishimaru, Tsuneari

1994-01-01

Comprehending and predicting the future states of the geological environment is very important in ensuring a safe geological disposal of high level radioactive wastes (HLW). This paper is one in a series of studies required to ascertain the existence of a geologically stable area in Japan over the long term. In particular, interest is focussed on the aspect of accumulating data on behavior patterns of selected natural phenomena which will enable predictions of future behavior of geological processes and finding of areas of long term stability. While this paper limits itself to the second and part of the third step, the overall flow-chart of study on natural processes and events which may perturb the geological environment entails three major steps. They include: (i) identification of natural processes and events relevant to long term stability of geological environment to be evaluated; (ii) characterization of the identified natural processes and events; and (iii) prediction of the probability of occurrence, magnitude and influence of the natural processes and events which may perturb the geological environment. (J.P.N)

Future null infinity of Robertson-Walker spacetimes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moreschi, O.M.

1988-08-01

The future null infinity for all non-contracting Robertson-Walker space time is studied systematically. A theorem is proved which establishes the expected relation between the nature of J + and the appearance or absence of cosmic event horizons. (author). 7 refs, 1 tab

Signature for the absence of an event horizon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barbieri, James; Chapline, George

2012-01-01

One of the most celebrated predictions of general relativity is that compact astrophysical objects with masses greater than a few solar masses are surrounded by an event horizon where time stands still and communication from the interior to the exterior is cutoff. Despite profound theoretical reasons for doubting whether an event horizon is physically possible, no definitive test as to whether event horizons really exist has yet been proposed. In this Letter we propose an experimental signature for the non-existence of event horizons. In particular we point out that a sharp dip in the spectrum of π 0 decay gamma rays below 70 MeV coming from compact objects with masses exceeding a few solar masses would be definitive evidence that these objects have a physical surface and there is no event horizon. Observation of such gamma rays would also for the first time open an experimental window on physical processes at energies near to the Planck scale. The prospects for seeing the 70 MeV feature in the near future are briefly discussed.

Future Circular Collider study week 2017

CERN Document Server

2017-01-01

The annual meetings of the worldwide Future Circular Collider study (FCC) are major international events that review the progress in every domain which is relevant to develop feasible concepts for a next generation frontier particle accelerate based high-energy physics research infrastructure. This 3rd meeting is jointly organised by CERN and DESY. It is also the annual meeting of the EuroCirCol EC Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Action project. Previous events took place in Washington and Rome. In 2017 the FCC Week will take place in Berlin, Germany between May 29 and June 2.

Range Analysis and Terrain Preference of Adult Southern White Rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum in a South African Private Game Reserve: Insights into Carrying Capacity and Future Management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Thompson

Full Text Available The Southern white rhinoceros (Ceratotherium simum is a threatened species, central to the tourism appeal of private game reserves in South Africa. Privately owned reserves in South Africa tend to be smaller than government run reserves such as Kruger National Park. Because of their relatively small size and the often heterogeneous nature of the landscape private game reserve managers benefit from detailed knowledge of white rhinoceros terrain selection preferences, which can be assessed from their ranging behaviours. We collected adult and sub-adult white rhinoceros distribution data over a 15 month period, calculating individual range size using kernel density estimation analysis within a GIS. From this, terrain selectivity was calculated using 50% and 95% kernels to extract terrain composition values. Jacob's correction of the Ivlev's selectivity index was subsequently applied to the terrain composition of each individual to identify trends in selectivity. Results reveal that adult males hold exclusive territories considerably smaller than those found in previous work conducted in "open" or large reserves. Similarly, results for the size of male versus female territories were also not in keeping with those from previous field studies, with males, rather than females, having the larger territory requirement. Terrain selection for both genders and age classes (adult and sub-adult showed a strong preference for open grassland and avoidance of hill slope and riparian terrains. This research reveals white rhinoceros terrain selection preferences and how they influence range requirements in small, closed reserves. We conclude that this knowledge will be valuable in future white rhinoceros conservation management in small private game reserves, particularly in decisions surrounding removal of surplus individuals or augmentation of existing populations, calculation of reserve carrying capacity and future private reserve acquisition.

Risk and sensitivity analysis in relation to external events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alzbutas, R.; Urbonas, R.; Augutis, J.

2001-01-01

This paper presents risk and sensitivity analysis of external events impacts on the safe operation in general and in particular the Ignalina Nuclear Power Plant safety systems. Analysis is based on the deterministic and probabilistic assumptions and assessment of the external hazards. The real statistic data are used as well as initial external event simulation. The preliminary screening criteria are applied. The analysis of external event impact on the NPP safe operation, assessment of the event occurrence, sensitivity analysis, and recommendations for safety improvements are performed for investigated external hazards. Such events as aircraft crash, extreme rains and winds, forest fire and flying parts of the turbine are analysed. The models are developed and probabilities are calculated. As an example for sensitivity analysis the model of aircraft impact is presented. The sensitivity analysis takes into account the uncertainty features raised by external event and its model. Even in case when the external events analysis show rather limited danger, the sensitivity analysis can determine the highest influence causes. These possible variations in future can be significant for safety level and risk based decisions. Calculations show that external events cannot significantly influence the safety level of the Ignalina NPP operation, however the events occurrence and propagation can be sufficiently uncertain.(author)

Analyses of Observed and Anticipated Changes in Extreme Climate Events in the Northwest Himalaya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dharmaveer Singh

2016-02-01

Full Text Available In this study, past (1970-2005 as well as future long term (2011-2099 trends in various extreme events of temperature and precipitation have been investigated over selected hydro-meteorological stations in the Sutlej river basin. The ensembles of two Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP3 models: third generation Canadian Coupled Global Climate Model and Hadley Centre Coupled Model have been used for simulation of future daily time series of temperature (maximum and minimum and precipitation under A2 emission scenario. Large scale atmospheric variables of both models and National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research reanalysis data sets have been downscaled using statistical downscaling technique at individual stations. A total number of 25 extreme indices of temperature (14 and precipitation (11 as specified by the Expert Team of the World Meteorological Organization and Climate Variability and Predictability are derived for the past and future periods. Trends in extreme indices are detected over time using the modified Mann-Kendall test method. The stations which have shown either decrease or no change in hot extreme events (i.e., maximum TMax, warm days, warm nights, maximum TMin, tropical nights, summer days and warm spell duration indicators for 1970–2005 and increase in cold extreme events (cool days, cool nights, frost days and cold spell duration indicators are predicted to increase and decrease respectively in the future. In addition, an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events is also predicted.

Projected changes of rainfall event characteristics for the Czech Republic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svoboda Vojtěch

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Projected changes of warm season (May–September rainfall events in an ensemble of 30 regional climate model (RCM simulations are assessed for the Czech Republic. Individual rainfall events are identified using the concept of minimum inter-event time and only heavy events are considered. The changes of rainfall event characteristics are evaluated between the control (1981–2000 and two scenario (2020–2049 and 2070–2099 periods. Despite a consistent decrease in the number of heavy rainfall events, there is a large uncertainty in projected changes in seasonal precipitation total due to heavy events. Most considered characteristics (rainfall event depth, mean rainfall rate, maximum 60-min rainfall intensity and indicators of rainfall event erosivity are projected to increase and larger increases appear for more extreme values. Only rainfall event duration slightly decreases in the more distant scenario period according to the RCM simulations. As a consequence, the number of less extreme heavy rainfall events as well as the number of long events decreases in majority of the RCM simulations. Changes in most event characteristics (and especially in characteristics related to the rainfall intensity depend on changes in radiative forcing and temperature for the future periods. Only changes in the number of events and seasonal total due to heavy events depend significantly on altitude.

Ecological Carrying Capacity of Land Use Changes in Da'an City

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, H.; Zhang, J.; Li, B.

2018-04-01

Based on GIS and RS technology, this paper analyzed the land use change in Da'an city from 1995 to 2010. land-use ecological evaluation index was constructed to evaluate the land-use ecological risk of Da 'an city dynamically, and the land-use ecological risk level map was made, and then the distribution and change of the land-use ecological carrying capacity pattern of Da'an city were analyzed qualitatively. According to the evaluation results of ecological carrying capacity, the ecological environment of Da'an city has deteriorated in fifteen years. in 1995, the poor ecological environment area is mainly distributed in the northeast area of Da'an city, and the area is small, while the area of the central and southern areas is large; In 2010, the western region also appeared environmental degradation, the northeast environment deterioration is serious, the dominant area is reduced, and a small amount of deterioration in the central and southern regions. According to the study of this paper, in the future, we should strengthen the comprehensive management of this part of the area, strengthen vegetation coverage, reduce soil erosion, ensure the effective improvement of ecological environment.

Future equivalent of 2010 Russian heatwave intensified by weakening soil moisture constraints

Science.gov (United States)

Rasmijn, L. M.; van der Schrier, G.; Bintanja, R.; Barkmeijer, J.; Sterl, A.; Hazeleger, W.

2018-05-01

The 2010 heatwave in eastern Europe and Russia ranks among the hottest events ever recorded in the region1,2. The excessive summer warmth was related to an anomalously widespread and intense quasi-stationary anticyclonic circulation anomaly over western Russia, reinforced by depletion of spring soil moisture1,3-5. At present, high soil moisture levels and strong surface evaporation generally tend to cap maximum summer temperatures6-8, but these constraints may weaken under future warming9,10. Here, we use a data assimilation technique in which future climate model simulations are nudged to realistically represent the persistence and strength of the 2010 blocked atmospheric flow. In the future, synoptically driven extreme warming under favourable large-scale atmospheric conditions will no longer be suppressed by abundant soil moisture, leading to a disproportional intensification of future heatwaves. This implies that future mid-latitude heatwaves analogous to the 2010 event will become even more extreme than previously thought, with temperature extremes increasing by 8.4 °C over western Russia. Thus, the socioeconomic impacts of future heatwaves will probably be amplified beyond current estimates.

Topics, Events, Stories in Social Media

OpenAIRE

Hua, Ting

2018-01-01

The rise of big data, especially social media data (e.g., Twitter, Facebook, Youtube), gives new opportunities to the understanding of human behavior. Consequently, novel computing methods for mining patterns in social media data are therefore desired. Through applying these approaches, it has become possible to aggregate public available data to capture triggers underlying events, detect on-going trends, and forecast future happenings. This thesis focuses on developing methods...

The Development and Implementation of Cognitive Aids for Critical Events in Pediatric Anesthesia: The Society for Pediatric Anesthesia Critical Events Checklists.

Science.gov (United States)

Clebone, Anna; Burian, Barbara K; Watkins, Scott C; Gálvez, Jorge A; Lockman, Justin L; Heitmiller, Eugenie S

2017-03-01

; however, recent and future simulation studies with adult checklists provide a promising avenue for future validation of the SPA checklists. This article will review the developmental steps in producing the SPA crisis checklists, including creation of content, incorporation of human factors elements, and validation in simulation. Critical-events checklists have the potential to improve patient care during emergency events, and it is hoped that incorporating the elements presented in this article will aid in successful implementation of these essential cognitive aids.

Potentially lethal effects of astrophysical high energy explosive events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zarauza, Dario; Martin, Osmel; Rolando Cardenas

2007-01-01

In this work we compare the biological extinction risks posed by different types of high energy explosive events, if they occur at distances close enough to inhabited planets. These events are several kinds of supernovae and gamma ray bursts. We mainly consider the ozone depletion, leaving other effects, as photon retransmission and muon showers, for future work. In order to estimate the damage on ozonosphere, we use a simple analytical model for ozone depletion. We also mention some hints to look for the signatures of these events on Earth biogeochemical record, and evaluate the possibility of applying these results to the astrobiologically interesting sample of stars gathered by Porto de Mello, del Peloso and Ghezzi. (Author)

A Rapid History of Futures Thought: From Montgolfier to the Manhattan Project.

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, I. F.

1984-01-01

The literature of future studies has grown up rapidly in times of technological innovation and social change. Particular events and publications that have contributed most to the development of the futures movement around the world are highlighted. (Author/RM)

Environmental conditions synchronize waterbird mortality events in the Great Lakes

Science.gov (United States)

Prince, Karine; Chipault, Jennifer G.; White, C. LeAnn; Zuckerberg, Benjamin

2018-01-01

Since the 1960s, periodic outbreaks of avian botulism type E have contributed to large-scale die-offs of thousands of waterbirds throughout the Great Lakes of the United States. In recent years, these events have become more common and widespread. Occurring during the summer and autumn months, the prevalence of these die-offs varies across years and is often associated with years of warmer lake temperatures and lower water levels. Little information exists on how environmental conditions mediate the spatial and temporal characteristics of mortality events.In 2010, a citizen science programme, Avian Monitoring for Botulism Lakeshore Events (AMBLE), was launched to enhance surveillance efforts and detect the appearance of beached waterbird carcasses associated with avian botulism type E outbreaks in northern Lake Michigan. Using these data, our goal was to quantify the within-year characteristics of mortality events for multiple species, and to test whether the synchrony of these events corresponded to fluctuations in two environmental factors suspected to be important in the spread of avian botulism: water temperature and the prevalence of green macroalgae.During two separate events of mass waterbird mortality, we found that the detection of bird carcasses was spatially synchronized at scales of c. 40 km. Notably, the extent of this spatial synchrony in avian mortality matched that of fluctuations in lake surface water temperatures and the prevalence of green macroalgae.Synthesis and applications. Our findings are suggestive of a synchronizing effect where warmer lake temperatures and the appearance of macroalgae mediate the characteristics of avian mortality. In future years, rising lake temperatures and a higher propensity of algal masses could lead to increases in the magnitude and synchronization of avian mortality due to botulism. We advocate that citizen-based monitoring efforts are critical for identifying the potential environmental conditions associated

Public perceptions of climate change and extreme weather events

Science.gov (United States)

Bruine de Bruin, W.; Dessai, S.; Morgan, G.; Taylor, A.; Wong-Parodi, G.

2013-12-01

Climate experts face a serious communication challenge. Public debate about climate change continues, even though at the same time people seem to complain about extreme weather events becoming increasingly common. As compared to the abstract concept of ';climate change,' (changes in) extreme weather events are indeed easier to perceive, more vivid, and personally relevant. Public perception research in different countries has suggested that people commonly expect that climate change will lead to increases in temperature, and that unseasonably warm weather is likely to be interpreted as evidence of climate change. However, relatively little is known about whether public concerns about climate change may also be driven by changes in other types of extreme weather events, such as exceptional amounts of precipitation or flooding. We therefore examined how perceptions of and personal experiences with changes in these specific weather events are related to public concerns about climate change. In this presentation, we will discuss findings from two large public perception surveys conducted in flood-prone Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania (US) and with a national sample in the UK, where extreme flooding has recently occurred across the country. Participants completed questions about their perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events, and their beliefs about climate change. We then conducted linear regressions to predict individual differences in climate-change beliefs, using perceptions of and experiences with specific extreme weather events as predictors, while controlling for demographic characteristics. The US study found that people (a) perceive flood chances to be increasing over the decades, (b) believe climate change to play a role in increases in future flood chances, and (c) would interpret future increases in flooding as evidence for climate change. The UK study found that (a) UK residents are more likely to perceive increases in ';wet' events such

Marketing Study on Secondary Metal Futures Might be Finished Within This Year

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

2015-01-01

Commissioned by Shanghai Futures Exchange,China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association Secondary Metal Branch is carrying out"Study on development and marketing of secondary nonferrous metal product futures variety"(ADC12 marketing feasibility study),according

Scanning and vicarious learning from adverse events in health care

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

2001-01-01

Full Text Available Studies have shown that serious adverse clinical events occur in approximately 3%-10% of acute care hospital admissions, and one third of these adverse events result in permanent disability or death. These findings have led to calls for national medical error reporting systems and for greater organizational learning by hospitals. But do hospitals and hospital personnel pay enough attention to such risk information that they might learn from each other's failures or adverse events? This paper gives an overview of the importance of scanning and vicarious learning from adverse events. In it I propose that health care organizations' attention and information focus, organizational affinity, and absorptive capacity may each influence scanning and vicarious learning outcomes. Implications for future research are discussed.

Event-by-event extraction of kinetic and chemical freeze-out properties in the CBM experiment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Vovchenko, Volodymyr [Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany); Taras Shevchenko University, Kyiv (Ukraine); Kisel, Ivan [Goethe University, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); Frankfurt Institute for Advanced Studies, Frankfurt am Main (Germany); GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany); Anchishkin, Dmitry [Taras Shevchenko University, Kyiv (Ukraine); Bogolyubov Institute for Theoretical Physics, Kyiv (Ukraine); Collaboration: CBM-Collaboration

2015-07-01

The future CBM experiment at FAIR is designed to study properties of strongly interacting matter produced in heavy-ion collisions at high baryon densities. It will employ high intensity beams and large acceptance detectors. One important task is to extract the thermal parameters of matter at stages of kinetic and chemical freeze-out from the observed data. The extraction of thermal parameters is implemented as a package within the CBMROOT framework. The kinetic freeze-out temperature and the inverse slope of charged pions are extracted from their measured momentum spectra with appropriate correction on acceptance and reconstruction efficiency. The parameters of the chemical freeze-out are extracted by fitting the measured particle ratios in the framework of Hadron Resonance Gas model. The procedures can be used to perform analysis on event-by-event as well as on the inclusive spectra level.

Remembering the past and imagining the future: Identifying and enhancing the contribution of episodic memory

Science.gov (United States)

Schacter, Daniel L; Madore, Kevin P

2016-01-01

Recent studies have shown that imagining or simulating future events relies on many of the same cognitive and neural processes as remembering past events. According to the constructive episodic simulation hypothesis (Schacter and Addis, 2007), such overlap indicates that both remembered past and imagined future events rely heavily on episodic memory: future simulations are built on retrieved details of specific past experiences that are recombined into novel events. An alternative possibility is that commonalities between remembering and imagining reflect the influence of more general, non-episodic factors such as narrative style or communicative goals that shape the expression of both memory and imagination. We consider recent studies that distinguish the contributions of episodic and non-episodic processes in remembering the past and imagining the future by using an episodic specificity induction – brief training in recollecting the details of a past experience – and also extend this approach to the domains of problem solving and creative thinking. We conclude by suggesting that the specificity induction may target a process of scene construction that contributes to episodic memory as well as to imagination, problem solving, and creative thinking. PMID:28163775

The influence of hydrologic residence time on lake carbon cycling dynamics following extreme precipitation events

Science.gov (United States)

Jacob A. Zwart; Stephen D. Sebestyen; Christopher T. Solomon; Stuart E. Jones

2016-01-01

The frequency and magnitude of extreme events are expected to increase in the future, yet little is known about effects of such events on ecosystem structure and function. We examined how extreme precipitation events affect exports of terrestrial dissolved organic carbon (t-DOC) from watersheds to lakes as well as in-lake heterotrophy in three north-temperate lakes....

Phenomenological Characteristics of Future Thinking in Alzheimer's Disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Moustafa, Ahmed A; El Haj, Mohamad

2018-05-11

This study investigates phenomenological reliving of future thinking in Alzheimer's disease (AD) patients and matched controls. All participants were asked to imagine in detail a future event, and afterward, were asked to rate phenomenological characteristics of their future thinking. As compared to controls, AD participants showed poor rating for reliving, travel in time, visual imagery, auditory imagery, language, and spatiotemporal specificity. However, no significant differences were observed between both groups in emotion and importance of future thinking. Results also showed lower rating for visual imagery relative to remaining phenomenological features in AD participants compared to controls; conversely, these participants showed higher ratings for emotion and importance of future thinking. AD seems to compromise some phenomenological characteristics of future thinking, especially, visual imagery; however, other phenomenological characteristics, such as emotion, seem to be relatively preserved in these populations. By highlighting the phenomenological experience of future thinking in AD, our paper opens a unique window into the conscious experience of the future in AD patients.

The Future Workshop: Democratic problem solving

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vidal, Rene Victor Valqui

2005-01-01

The origins, principles and practice of a very popular method known as The Future Workshop are presented. The fundamental theory and principles of this method are presented in an introductory way. In addition, practical guidelines to carry out such a workshop are outlined and several types of app...

Minimum bias and underlying event studies at CDF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moggi, Niccolo

2010-01-01

Soft, non-perturbative, interactions are poorly understood from the theoretical point of view even though they form a large part of the hadronic cross section at the energies now available. We review the CDF studies on minimum-bias ad underlying event in p(bar p) collisions at 2 TeV. After proposing an operative definition of 'underlying event', we present part of a systematic set of measurements carried out by the CDF Collaboration with the goal to provide data to test and improve the QCD models of hadron collisions. Different analysis strategies of the underlying event and possible event topologies are discussed. Part of the CDF minimum-bias results are also presented: in this sample, that represent the full inelastic cross-section, we can test simultaneously our knowledge of all the components that concur to form hadronic interactions. Comparisons with MonteCarlo simulations are always shown along with the data. These measurements will also contribute to more precise estimates of the soft QCD background of high-p T observables.

Semantic Complex Event Processing over End-to-End Data Flows

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhou, Qunzhi [University of Southern California; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

2012-04-01

Emerging Complex Event Processing (CEP) applications in cyber physical systems like SmartPower Grids present novel challenges for end-to-end analysis over events, flowing from heterogeneous information sources to persistent knowledge repositories. CEP for these applications must support two distinctive features - easy specification patterns over diverse information streams, and integrated pattern detection over realtime and historical events. Existing work on CEP has been limited to relational query patterns, and engines that match events arriving after the query has been registered. We propose SCEPter, a semantic complex event processing framework which uniformly processes queries over continuous and archived events. SCEPteris built around an existing CEP engine with innovative support for semantic event pattern specification and allows their seamless detection over past, present and future events. Specifically, we describe a unified semantic query model that can operate over data flowing through event streams to event repositories. Compile-time and runtime semantic patterns are distinguished and addressed separately for efficiency. Query rewriting is examined and analyzed in the context of temporal boundaries that exist between event streams and their repository to avoid duplicate or missing results. The design and prototype implementation of SCEPterare analyzed using latency and throughput metrics for scenarios from the Smart Grid domain.

Diagnosing causes of extreme aerosol optical depth events

Science.gov (United States)

Bernstein, D. N.; Sullivan, R.; Crippa, P.; Thota, A.; Pryor, S. C.

2017-12-01

Aerosol burdens and optical properties exhibit substantial spatiotemporal variability, and simulation of current and possible future aerosol burdens and characteristics exhibits relatively high uncertainty due to uncertainties in emission estimates and in chemical and physical processes associated with aerosol formation, dynamics and removal. We report research designed to improve understanding of the causes and characteristics of extreme aerosol optical depth (AOD) at the regional scale, and diagnose and attribute model skill in simulating these events. Extreme AOD events over the US Midwest are selected by identifying all dates on which AOD in a MERRA-2 reanalysis grid cell exceeds the local seasonally computed 90th percentile (p90) value during 2004-2016 and then finding the dates on which the highest number of grid cells exceed their local p90. MODIS AOD data are subsequently used to exclude events dominated by wildfires. MERRA-2 data are also analyzed within a synoptic classification to determine in what ways the extreme AOD events are atypical and to identify possible meteorological `finger-prints' that can be detected in regional climate model simulations of future climate states to project possible changes in the occurrence of extreme AOD. Then WRF-Chem v3.6 is applied at 12-km resolution and regridded to the MERRA-2 resolution over eastern North America to quantify model performance, and also evaluated using in situ measurements of columnar AOD (AERONET) and near-surface PM2.5 (US EPA). Finally the sensitivity to (i) spin-up time (including procedure used to spin-up the chemistry), (ii) modal versus sectional aerosol schemes, (iii) meteorological nudging, (iv) chemistry initial and boundary conditions, and (v) anthropogenic emissions is quantified. Despite recent declines in mean AOD, supraregional (> 1000 km) extreme AOD events continue to occur. During these events AOD exceeds 0.6 in many Midwestern grid cells for multiple consecutive days. In all

Palaeoceanographic and biotic response during early Eocene extreme global warming events. Geologica Ultraiectina (328)

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stap, H.L.

2010-01-01

Studying past intervals of abrupt global warming and massive carbon release can improve our knowledge in ways relevant to understanding future climate change. Possible paleo-analogues for future climate change are the early Paleogene hyperthermal events, such as the Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum

Game interrupted: The rationality of considering the future

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Brandon Almy

2013-09-01

Full Text Available The ``problem of points'', introduced by Paccioli in 1494 and solved by Pascal and Fermat 160 years later, inspired the modern concept of probability. Incidentally, the problem also shows that rational decision-making requires the consideration of future events. We show that naive responses to the problem of points are more future oriented and thus more rational in this sense when the problem itself is presented in a future frame instead of the canonical past frame. A simple nudge is sufficient to make decisions more rational. We consider the implications of this finding for hypothesis testing and predictions of replicability.

The relationship between prospective memory and episodic future thinking in younger and older adulthood

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Terrett, G.; Rose, N.S.; Henry, J.D.; Bailey, P.E.; Altgassen, A.M.; Phillips, L.H.; Kliegel, M.; Rendell, P.G.

2016-01-01

Episodic future thinking (EFT), the ability to project into the future to "preexperience" an event, and prospective memory (PM), remembering to perform an intended action, are both examples of future-oriented cognition. Recently it has been suggested that EFT might contribute to PM performance but

Magnetosphere energetics during substorm events IMP 8 and Geotail observations

CERN Document Server

Belehaki, A

2001-01-01

Magnetospheric energetics during substorm events is studied in this paper. Three events were selected, a weak substorm, a large isolated one and finally a prolonged period of substorm activity with multiple intensifications. It is assumed that the energy, that entered the magnetosphere due to electromagnetic coupling with the solar wind, is described by the epsilon parameter, proposed by Perreault and Akasofu (1978). High resolution, magnetic field and plasma data from the MGF and LEP experiments on board Geotail were analyzed to determine the timing of plasmoid release, its dimensions, its convection velocity and finally the energy carried by each plasmoid. Plasmoids were defined as structures with rotating magnetic fields and enhanced total pressure. Tailward plasmoid bulk speed in the distant tail varied from 350 to 750 km/s. Their dimensions in the X/sub GSM/ direction was found to be from 4.5 to 28 R/sub E/, and their duration did not exceed 5 min. The average energy carried by each plasmoid in the dista...

Event-by-event jet quenching

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fries, R.J.; Rodriguez, R.; Ramirez, E.

2010-08-14

High momentum jets and hadrons can be used as probes for the quark gluon plasma (QGP) formed in nuclear collisions at high energies. We investigate the influence of fluctuations in the fireball on jet quenching observables by comparing propagation of light quarks and gluons through averaged, smooth QGP fireballs with event-by-event jet quenching using realistic inhomogeneous fireballs. We find that the transverse momentum and impact parameter dependence of the nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} can be fit well in an event-by-event quenching scenario within experimental errors. However the transport coefficient {cflx q} extracted from fits to the measured nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} in averaged fireballs underestimates the value from event-by-event calculations by up to 50%. On the other hand, after adjusting {cflx q} to fit R{sub AA} in the event-by-event analysis we find residual deviations in the azimuthal asymmetry v{sub 2} and in two-particle correlations, that provide a possible faint signature for a spatial tomography of the fireball. We discuss a correlation function that is a measure for spatial inhomogeneities in a collision and can be constrained from data.

Event-by-event jet quenching

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rodriguez, R. [Cyclotron Institute and Physics Department, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); Fries, R.J., E-mail: rjfries@comp.tamu.ed [Cyclotron Institute and Physics Department, Texas A and M University, College Station, TX 77843 (United States); RIKEN/BNL Research Center, Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY 11973 (United States); Ramirez, E. [Physics Department, University of Texas El Paso, El Paso, TX 79968 (United States)

2010-09-27

High momentum jets and hadrons can be used as probes for the quark gluon plasma (QGP) formed in nuclear collisions at high energies. We investigate the influence of fluctuations in the fireball on jet quenching observables by comparing propagation of light quarks and gluons through averaged, smooth QGP fireballs with event-by-event jet quenching using realistic inhomogeneous fireballs. We find that the transverse momentum and impact parameter dependence of the nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} can be fit well in an event-by-event quenching scenario within experimental errors. However the transport coefficient q extracted from fits to the measured nuclear modification factor R{sub AA} in averaged fireballs underestimates the value from event-by-event calculations by up to 50%. On the other hand, after adjusting q to fit R{sub AA} in the event-by-event analysis we find residual deviations in the azimuthal asymmetry v{sub 2} and in two-particle correlations, that provide a possible faint signature for a spatial tomography of the fireball. We discuss a correlation function that is a measure for spatial inhomogeneities in a collision and can be constrained from data.

Parallelization of Reversible Ripple-carry Adders

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Michael Kirkedal; Axelsen, Holger Bock

2009-01-01

The design of fast arithmetic logic circuits is an important research topic for reversible and quantum computing. A special challenge in this setting is the computation of standard arithmetical functions without the generation of \\emph{garbage}. Here, we present a novel parallelization scheme...... wherein $m$ parallel $k$-bit reversible ripple-carry adders are combined to form a reversible $mk$-bit \\emph{ripple-block carry adder} with logic depth $\\mathcal{O}(m+k)$ for a \\emph{minimal} logic depth $\\mathcal{O}(\\sqrt{mk})$, thus improving on the $mk$-bit ripple-carry adder logic depth $\\mathcal...

Peculiarities of Social Competence of Future Specialists of Physical Education and Sports

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Romualdas K. Malinauskas

2012-04-01

Full Text Available The article reveals the peculiarities of social competence of future specialists of physical education and sports. To solve the objectives, the poll has been carried out. 263 student have been selected (135 future teachers of physical culture and 128 future coaches. The results show that future teachers of physical education have higher level of responsiveness (the ability to console, the ability to help than future coaches. Future teachers of physical education have higher level of ability to avoid insult

Increasing the Operational Value of Event Messages

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Zhenping; Savkli, Cetin; Smith, Dan

2003-01-01

Assessing the health of a space mission has traditionally been performed using telemetry analysis tools. Parameter values are compared to known operational limits and are plotted over various time periods. This presentation begins with the notion that there is an incredible amount of untapped information contained within the mission s event message logs. Through creative advancements in message handling tools, the event message logs can be used to better assess spacecraft and ground system status and to highlight and report on conditions not readily apparent when messages are evaluated one-at-a-time during a real-time pass. Work in this area is being funded as part of a larger NASA effort at the Goddard Space Flight Center to create component-based, middleware-based, standards-based general purpose ground system architecture referred to as GMSEC - the GSFC Mission Services Evolution Center. The new capabilities and operational concepts for event display, event data analyses and data mining are being developed by Lockheed Martin and the new subsystem has been named GREAT - the GMSEC Reusable Event Analysis Toolkit. Planned for use on existing and future missions, GREAT has the potential to increase operational efficiency in areas of problem detection and analysis, general status reporting, and real-time situational awareness.

The consideration and representation of retention processes in performance assessments carried out by waste management organisations: what has been done and why?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, J.; Schwyn, B.; Zuidema, P.; Umeki, H.; Smith, P.

2002-01-01

Waste management organisations generally carry out several performance assessments in the course of the stepwise planning and development of a repository. Performance.assessments are used to test, as far as possible at a given stage, the suitability of a given site and design from the point of view of safety, and to guide future stages. Typically, such assessments involve: - The collation of scientific understanding (which evolves in the course of planning and development). - The identification of the most safety-relevant phenomena and the uncertainties in current scientific understanding to which the evaluated repository performance is most sensitive. - The development of arguments, based on current scientific understanding, that repository performance will be acceptable, from the point of view of safety, provided the spectrum of possibilities for the characteristics and evolution of the repository and its environment lies within certain bounds. Complementary arguments are sought, e.g., from science and engineering studies, to provide evidence that the spectrum of possibilities does, in fact, lie within these bounds. In order to develop convincing arguments for safety, it is important that safety-relevant phenomena and uncertainties are identified and evaluated in a cautious and systematic manner. Waste management organisations need to identify not only the phenomena that are expected to provide safety, which include the class of phenomena known as retention processes, but also events and processes that may adversely affect their operation. This paper reviews the typical treatment of retention processes in performance assessments carried out by waste management organisations, with particular emphasis on the processes of matrix diffusion and sorption. (authors)

Young generation: carrying the inheritance into the future

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gisbertz, A.

1999-01-01

Decisions in energy policy, which are now being made, define the environment we live in and the quality of life of our children for the next fifty years. Nuclear technology should therefore not be buried like a dinosaur as the plaything of political and economic ideologists. The danger is great of simply missing out on know how transfer in a technology that today already meets 17% of the power demand worldwide. However, past mistakes need not be repeated if the young scientists and engineers, make the knowledge of the experts their own and continue to develop it jointly in a well understood generation agreement. (N.C.)

Modelling of aircrew radiation exposure during solar particle events

Science.gov (United States)

Al Anid, Hani Khaled

In 1990, the International Commission on Radiological Protection recognized the occupational exposure of aircrew to cosmic radiation. In Canada, a Commercial and Business Aviation Advisory Circular was issued by Transport Canada suggesting that action should be taken to manage such exposure. In anticipation of possible regulations on exposure of Canadian-based aircrew in the near future, an extensive study was carried out at the Royal Military College of Canada to measure the radiation exposure during commercial flights. The radiation exposure to aircrew is a result of a complex mixed-radiation field resulting from Galactic Cosmic Rays (GCRs) and Solar Energetic Particles (SEPs). Supernova explosions and active galactic nuclei are responsible for GCRs which consist of 90% protons, 9% alpha particles, and 1% heavy nuclei. While they have a fairly constant fluence rate, their interaction with the magnetic field of the Earth varies throughout the solar cycles, which has a period of approximately 11 years. SEPs are highly sporadic events that are associated with solar flares and coronal mass ejections. This type of exposure may be of concern to certain aircrew members, such as pregnant flight crew, for which the annual effective dose is limited to 1 mSv over the remainder of the pregnancy. The composition of SEPs is very similar to GCRs, in that they consist of mostly protons, some alpha particles and a few heavy nuclei, but with a softer energy spectrum. An additional factor when analysing SEPs is the effect of flare anisotropy. This refers to the way charged particles are transported through the Earth's magnetosphere in an anisotropic fashion. Solar flares that are fairly isotropic produce a uniform radiation exposure for areas that have similar geomagnetic shielding, while highly anisotropic events produce variable exposures at different locations on the Earth. Studies of neutron monitor count rates from detectors sharing similar geomagnetic shielding properties

[Adverse events management. Methods and results of a development project].

Science.gov (United States)

Rabøl, Louise Isager; Jensen, Elisabeth Brøgger; Hellebek, Annemarie H; Pedersen, Beth Lilja

2006-11-27

This article describes the methods and results of a project in the Copenhagen Hospital Corporation (H:S) on preventing adverse events. The aim of the project was to raise awareness about patients' safety, test a reporting system for adverse events, develop and test methods of analysis of events and propagate ideas about how to prevent adverse events. H:S developed an action plan and a reporting system for adverse events, founded an organization and developed an educational program on theories and methods of learning from adverse events for both leaders and employees. During the three-year period from 1 January 2002 to 31 December 2004, the H:S staff reported 6011 adverse events. In the same period, the organization completed 92 root cause analyses. More than half of these dealt with events that had been optional to report, the other half events that had been mandatory to report. The number of reports and the front-line staff's attitude towards reporting shows that the H:S succeeded in founding a safety culture. Future work should be centred on developing and testing methods that will prevent adverse events from happening. The objective is to suggest and complete preventive initiatives which will help increase patient safety.

Coordinating the Atlantis Grand Opening Event

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Abigail Allaine

2013-01-01

While working as the marketing intern for Kennedy Space Center's (KSC) Center Planning and Development Directorate (CPD), I was given the opportunity not only to learn new skills and expand my work experience under the powerful influence of NASA, but I also was given the opportunity to prove that I am an individual capable of contributing to the KSC team. My main responsibility while working in CPD was to organize and run a booth that represented the entire directorate at the Grand Opening of the Shuttle Atlantis exhibit during the weekend of June 28-30. This event was important for CPD because as a Directorate that markets KSC's facilities, technical capabilities and technologies to potential partners, it is important to attend all events and use them to gain an understanding of our audience. Although we catered mostly to the general public during this event, it was still important to reach out to the larger space enthusiast community and let them know about KSC's future plans to become a multi-user spaceport and that teclmology is still being developed.

Studying the impact of academic events

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Thomas Trøst; Pedersen, David Budtz

2018-01-01

of scholarly work, to increase collaboration with non-academic partners and to achieve a broad range of socio-economic benefits. Impact assessment frameworks are occupied with documenting the effects of science on a large number of variables. However, the participation and hosting of academic events have......Demands that publicly funded scientific research should demonstrate its academic and societal impact have been commonplace for some time. Research communities, university administrators and policy-makers are looking to impact assessments and impact toolkits to better communicate the value...... not been included in most frameworks. In this scoping review, we demonstrate that academic events are an important vehicle for academic and societal value-creation that should be integrated in future impact studies. The review presents the main trends in the literature by categorizing the impact...

The future of mega sport events : Examining the ‘Dutch Approach’ to legacy planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hartman, S.; Zandberg, T.

2015-01-01

Purpose – Mega sport events (MSE) are immensely popular but also highly criticized because these nclude large public budgets and involve politically sensitive topics. In this context, there is an increasing attention toward legacy planning, the effort to confer long-term benefits to a host

Evaluation of climate change impact on extreme hydrological event ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Changes in hydrological extremes will have implications on the design of future hydraulic structures, flood plain development, and water resource management. This study assesses the potential impact of climate change on extreme hydrological events in the Akaki River catchment area in and around Addis Ababa city.

The practice of reporting adverse events in a teaching hospital

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andréia Guerra Siman

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract OBJECTIVE Understanding the practice of reporting adverse events by health professionals. METHOD A qualitative case study carried out in a teaching hospital with participants of the Patient Safety Center and the nursing team. The collection took place from May to December 2015, and was conducted through interviews, observation and documentary research to treat the data using Content Analysis. RESULTS 31 professionals participated in the study. Three categories were elaborated: The practice of reporting adverse events; Barriers in the effective practice of notifications; The importance of reporting adverse events. CONCLUSION Notification was permeated by gaps in knowledge, fear of punishment and informal communication, generating underreporting. It is necessary to improve the interaction between leaders and professionals, with an emphasis on communication and educational practice.

Root Cause Analysis: Learning from Adverse Safety Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Brook, Olga R; Kruskal, Jonathan B; Eisenberg, Ronald L; Larson, David B

2015-10-01

Serious adverse events continue to occur in clinical practice, despite our best preventive efforts. It is essential that radiologists, both as individuals and as a part of organizations, learn from such events and make appropriate changes to decrease the likelihood that such events will recur. Root cause analysis (RCA) is a process to (a) identify factors that underlie variation in performance or that predispose an event toward undesired outcomes and (b) allow for development of effective strategies to decrease the likelihood of similar adverse events occurring in the future. An RCA process should be performed within the environment of a culture of safety, focusing on underlying system contributors and, in a confidential manner, taking into account the emotional effects on the staff involved. The Joint Commission now requires that a credible RCA be performed within 45 days for all sentinel or major adverse events, emphasizing the need for all radiologists to understand the processes with which an effective RCA can be performed. Several RCA-related tools that have been found to be useful in the radiology setting include the "five whys" approach to determine causation; cause-and-effect, or Ishikawa, diagrams; causal tree mapping; affinity diagrams; and Pareto charts. © RSNA, 2015.

Alternative measures of risk of extreme events in decision trees

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frohwein, H.I.; Lambert, J.H.; Haimes, Y.Y.

1999-01-01

A need for a methodology to control the extreme events, defined as low-probability, high-consequence incidents, in sequential decisions is identified. A variety of alternative and complementary measures of the risk of extreme events are examined for their usability as objective functions in sequential decisions, represented as single- or multiple-objective decision trees. Earlier work had addressed difficulties, related to non-separability, with the minimization of some measures of the risk of extreme events in sequential decisions. In an extension of these results, it is shown how some non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events can be interpreted in terms of separable constituents of risk, thereby enabling a wider class of measures of the risk of extreme events to be handled in a straightforward manner in a decision tree. Also for extreme events, results are given to enable minimax- and Hurwicz-criterion analyses in decision trees. An example demonstrates the incorporation of different measures of the risk of extreme events in a multi-objective decision tree. Conceptual formulations for optimizing non-separable measures of the risk of extreme events are identified as an important area for future investigation

When remembering the past suppresses memory for future actions.

Science.gov (United States)

Utsumi, Kenta; Saito, Satoru

2016-01-01

Remembering planned actions at the correct time in the future is an integral component of prospective cognition. Recent studies on future remembering have led to suggestions that prospective cognition might be based on past experience. To test this hypothesis, we focused on retrieval-induced forgetting (RIF), which usually indicates that remembering past events suppresses memory for related but different past events. The current study assessed RIF in two kinds of event-based prospective memory (PM) tasks using either focal or non-focal cues for ongoing tasks. Participants studied six members from each of eight taxonomic categories and then practiced recalling three of the six members from four of the eight categories using category-stem cues. This retrieval practice suppressed the detection of non-practiced members of the practiced categories during the PM task with non-focal cues (Experiment 1) but not with focal cues (Experiment 2). The results suggest that recall of certain items inhibits the function of the others as PM cues, but only if the PM task does not largely share its processing with the ongoing task.

Dipyridamole-thallium-201 scintigraphy in the prediction of future cardiac events after acute myocardial infarction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leppo, J.A.; O'Brien, J.; Rothendler, J.A.; Getchell, J.D.; Lee, V.W.

1984-01-01

To evaluate the safety and usefulness of serial thallium scanning immediately after intravenous dipyridamole, we studied 51 patients recovering from acute myocardial infarction. Eight patients experienced angina during the procedure, but there were no serious complications. Patients were followed for a mean period of 19 months after hospital discharge. Eleven of 12 patients who died during follow-up or had another infarction had shown transient defects (redistribution) on their predischarge scan, as had 22 of the 24 patients who needed readmission for management of angina. Among all the other clinical or scintigraphic criteria tested, the presence of redistribution on the dipyridamole-thallium scan was the only significant predictor of these serious cardiac events. Twenty-six patients were also given a submaximal exercise test before discharge, of whom 13 subsequently had serious cardiac events. The exercise test had been positive in only 6 of these 13 patients, whereas the dipyridamole-thallium scan had shown a redistribution pattern in 12 (P less than 0.001). We conclude from this preliminary study that dipyridamole-thallium scintigraphy after myocardial infraction is relatively safe. It appears to be a more sensitive predictor of subsequent cardiac events than a submaximal exercise test and may therefore prove useful in evaluating patients after recovery from a myocardial infarction

Economics of extreme weather events: Terminology and regional impact models

OpenAIRE

Jahn, Malte

2015-01-01

Impacts of extreme weather events are relevant for regional (in the sense of subnational) economies and in particular cities in many aspects. Cities are the cores of economic activity and the amount of people and assets endangered by extreme weather events is large, even under the current climate. A changing climate with changing extreme weather patterns and the process of urbanization will make the whole issue even more relevant in the future. In this paper, definitions and terminology in th...

Consumerism and the Sister Carrie's American Dream

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

卢亚丽

2017-01-01

From the aspect of consumerism to this text analyze Sister Carrie's"American dream"destruction. The author wholly and deeply analyzes the embodiment of consumerism in Dreiser's Sister Carrie and Dreiser's outlook and values under the effect of consumerism. To prove that the reason for destruction of Carrie's American dream is consumerism.

Local Dynamic Stability Associated with Load Carrying

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Liu

2013-03-01

Conclusion: Current study confirmed the sensitivity of local dynamic stability measure in load carrying situation. It was concluded that load carrying tasks were associated with declined local dynamic stability, which may result in increased risk of fall accident. This finding has implications in preventing fall accidents associated with occupational load carrying.

Financial impact of inaccurate Adverse Event recording post Hip Fracture surgery: Addendum to 'Adverse event recording post hip fracture surgery'.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Matthew J; Doody, Kevin; Mohamed, Khalid M S; Butler, Audrey; Street, John; Lenehan, Brian

2018-02-15

A study in 2011 by (Doody et al. Ir Med J 106(10):300-302, 2013) looked at comparing inpatient adverse events recorded prospectively at the point of care, with adverse events recorded by the national Hospital In-Patient Enquiry (HIPE) System. In the study, a single-centre University Hospital in Ireland treating acute hip fractures in an orthopaedic unit recorded 39 patients over a 2-month (August-September 2011) period, with 55 adverse events recorded prospectively in contrast to the HIPE record of 13 (23.6%) adverse events. With the recent change in the Irish hospital funding model from block grant to an 'activity-based funding' on the basis of case load and case complexity, the hospital financial allocation is dependent on accurate case complexity coding. A retrospective assessment of the financial implications of the two methods of adverse incident recording was carried out. A total of €39,899 in 'missed funding' for 2 months was calculated when the ward-based, prospectively collected data was compared to the national HIPE data. Accurate data collection is paramount in facilitating activity-based funding, to improve patient care and ensure the appropriate allocation of resources.

Projections of future extreme weather losses under changes in climate and exposure

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bouwer, L.M.

2013-01-01

Many attempts are made to assess future changes in extreme weather events due to anthropogenic climate change, but few studies have estimated the potential change in economic losses from such events. Projecting losses is more complex as it requires insight into the change in the weather hazard but

Single-event effects in analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turflinger, T.L.

1996-01-01

Analog and mixed-signal integrated circuits are also susceptible to single-event effects, but they have rarely been tested. Analog circuit single-particle transients require modified test techniques and data analysis. Existing work is reviewed and future concerns are outlined

Episodic future thinking in semantic dementia: a cognitive and FMRI study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Armelle Viard

Full Text Available Semantic dementia (SD is characterized by gradual loss of semantic memory. While episodic autobiographical memory seems relatively preserved, behavioral studies suggest that episodic future thinking is impaired. We used fMRI to measure brain activity in four SD patients (JPL, EP, LL, EG while they envisioned future events and remembered personal past events. Twelve healthy elders served as controls. Episodic quality, emotion, mental imagery and level of consciousness (via remember/know judgements were checked at debriefing. We analyzed the future compared to the past for each patient. All patients presented lateral temporal atrophy, but varied in terms of frontal and anterior hippocampal atrophy. Patient JPL presented atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and left anterior hippocampus and was unable to engage in episodic future thinking, despite hyperactivations in frontal and occipital regions. Patient EP presented no atrophy in the anterior hippocampus, but atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyrus and had difficulties to engage in episodic future thinking. Patient LL presented atrophy in left anterior hippocampus, but hyperactivated its right counterpart for future compared to past thinking, permitting her to project efficiently in the future in an episodic way. Patient EG presented no atrophy in the superior medial frontal gyri or anterior hippocampi and was able to engage in episodic future thinking. Altogether, patients' future projections differed depending on the severity and localization of their atrophy. The functional integrity of bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and anterior hippocampus appear crucial for episodic future thinking: atrophy of both structures strongly impairs future projection, while integrity of these structures or hyperactivation of residual tissue normalizes episodic future projection.

Fontan fenestration closure and event-free survival.

Science.gov (United States)

Imielski, Bartlomiej R; Woods, Ronald K; Mussatto, Kathleen A; Cao, Yumei; Simpson, Pippa M; Tweddell, James S

2013-01-01

The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the association of open and closed Fontan fenestration status with event-free survival. All patients who underwent a fenestrated Fontan procedure at our institution from January 1994 through June 2007 were reviewed. Patient information was obtained from the medical records. The patients were assigned to 1 of 2 study groups, open or closed, according to their most recent fenestration status. Clinically relevant morbid events were tabulated, and Kaplan-Meier event analysis was used to create event-free probability curves with log-rank comparisons. A total of 161 patients were classified as open and 51 as closed. The median interval to an event was 1.1 years (interquartile range, 0.1-3.3 years) after the Fontan procedure. The median interval to closure was 1.2 years (interquartile range, 0.7-3.3 years). The median interval to an event was 1.5 years (interquartile range, 0.1-4.6 years) in the closed group and 1.1 years (interquartile range, 0.1-3.3 years) in the open group. Event-free probability analysis revealed no significant difference between the 2 groups (P = .15). The median follow-up arterial oxygen saturation was greater in the closed group (96.0%; interquartile range, 94.0%-97.0%) than in the open group (91.0%; interquartile range, 86.0%-95.0%; P < .0001). Fenestration closure was associated with greater arterial oxygen saturation but not greater event-free survival. The interval to an event was slightly less than the interval to fenestration closure, suggesting potential merit in the evaluation of earlier fenestration closure. Adoption of specific fenestration management guidelines might help improve the overall outcomes and enhance the quality of future studies. Copyright © 2013 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Mosby, Inc. All rights reserved.

EDICAM (Event Detection Intelligent Camera)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zoletnik, S. [Wigner RCP RMI, EURATOM Association, Budapest (Hungary); Szabolics, T., E-mail: szabolics.tamas@wigner.mta.hu [Wigner RCP RMI, EURATOM Association, Budapest (Hungary); Kocsis, G.; Szepesi, T.; Dunai, D. [Wigner RCP RMI, EURATOM Association, Budapest (Hungary)

2013-10-15

Highlights: ► We present EDICAM's hardware modules. ► We present EDICAM's main design concepts. ► This paper will describe EDICAM firmware architecture. ► Operation principles description. ► Further developments. -- Abstract: A new type of fast framing camera has been developed for fusion applications by the Wigner Research Centre for Physics during the last few years. A new concept was designed for intelligent event driven imaging which is capable of focusing image readout to Regions of Interests (ROIs) where and when predefined events occur. At present these events mean intensity changes and external triggers but in the future more sophisticated methods might also be defined. The camera provides 444 Hz frame rate at full resolution of 1280 × 1024 pixels, but monitoring of smaller ROIs can be done in the 1–116 kHz range even during exposure of the full image. Keeping space limitations and the harsh environment in mind the camera is divided into a small Sensor Module and a processing card interconnected by a fast 10 Gbit optical link. This camera hardware has been used for passive monitoring of the plasma in different devices for example at ASDEX Upgrade and COMPASS with the first version of its firmware. The new firmware and software package is now available and ready for testing the new event processing features. This paper will present the operation principle and features of the Event Detection Intelligent Camera (EDICAM). The device is intended to be the central element in the 10-camera monitoring system of the Wendelstein 7-X stellarator.

Climate Change Risks – Methodological Framework and Case Study of Damages from Extreme Events in Cambodia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halsnæs, Kirsten; Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

2016-01-01

Climate change imposes some special risks on Least Developed Countries, and the chapter presents a methodological framework, which can be used to assess the impacts of key assumptions related to damage costs, risks and equity implications on current and future generations. The methodological...... framework is applied to a case study of severe storms in Cambodia based on statistical information on past storm events including information about buildings damaged and victims. Despite there is limited data available on the probability of severe storm events under climate change as well on the actual...... damage costs associated with the events in the case of Cambodia, we are using the past storm events as proxy data in a sensitivity analysis. It is here demonstrated how key assumptions on future climate change, income levels of victims, and income distribution over time, reflected in discount rates...

TACKLING EVENT DETECTION IN THE CONTEXT OF VIDEO SURVEILLANCE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raducu DUMITRESCU

2011-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper we address the problem of event detection in the context of video surveillance systems. First we deal with background extraction. Three methods are being tested, namely: frame differencing, running average and an estimate of median filtering technique. This provides information about changing contents. Further, we use this information to address human presence detection in the scene. This is carried out thought a contour-based approach. Contours are extracted from moving regions and parameterized. Human silhouettes show particular signatures of these parameters. Experimental results prove the potential of this approach to event detection. However, these are our first preliminary results to this application.

Montana Proficiency Events Handbook. FHA HERO: Future Homemakers of America toward New Horizons.

Science.gov (United States)

McGregor, Linda, Ed.; Quickenden, Sandy, Ed.

This handbook contains directions for FHA/HERO (Future Homemakers of America/Home Economics Related Occupations) participation activities in Montana. Participation activities are local, state, and national level competitions involving students in vocational home economics programs. The handbook provides a general overview of participation…

The neural basis of event simulation: an FMRI study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yukihito Yomogida

Full Text Available Event simulation (ES is the situational inference process in which perceived event features such as objects, agents, and actions are associated in the brain to represent the whole situation. ES provides a common basis for various cognitive processes, such as perceptual prediction, situational understanding/prediction, and social cognition (such as mentalizing/trait inference. Here, functional magnetic resonance imaging was used to elucidate the neural substrates underlying important subdivisions within ES. First, the study investigated whether ES depends on different neural substrates when it is conducted explicitly and implicitly. Second, the existence of neural substrates specific to the future-prediction component of ES was assessed. Subjects were shown contextually related object pictures implying a situation and performed several picture-word-matching tasks. By varying task goals, subjects were made to infer the implied situation implicitly/explicitly or predict the future consequence of that situation. The results indicate that, whereas implicit ES activated the lateral prefrontal cortex and medial/lateral parietal cortex, explicit ES activated the medial prefrontal cortex, posterior cingulate cortex, and medial/lateral temporal cortex. Additionally, the left temporoparietal junction plays an important role in the future-prediction component of ES. These findings enrich our understanding of the neural substrates of the implicit/explicit/predictive aspects of ES-related cognitive processes.

Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modjtahedi, Bagher; Movassagh, Nahid

2005-01-01

This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

Natural-gas futures: Bias, predictive performance, and the theory of storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Modjtahedi, Bagher [California Univ., Davis, CA (United States); California Franchise Tax Board, CA (United States); Movassagh, Nahid [California Energy Commission, MS22, Sacramento, CA (United States)

2005-07-01

This study reports several empirical findings concerning natural gas futures prices. First, spot and futures prices are non-stationary and the observed trends are due to positive drifts in the random-walk components of the prices rather than possible deterministic time trends. Second, market forecast errors are stationary. Third, futures are less than expected future spot prices so that futures are backdated. Fourth, the bias in the futures prices is time varying. Fifth, futures have statistically significant market-timing ability, despite the bias in the magnitude forecasts. Finally, the data lends partial support to the cost-of-carry theory of the basis determination. (Author)

An Overview of Biomolecular Event Extraction from Scientific Documents.

Science.gov (United States)

Vanegas, Jorge A; Matos, Sérgio; González, Fabio; Oliveira, José L

2015-01-01

This paper presents a review of state-of-the-art approaches to automatic extraction of biomolecular events from scientific texts. Events involving biomolecules such as genes, transcription factors, or enzymes, for example, have a central role in biological processes and functions and provide valuable information for describing physiological and pathogenesis mechanisms. Event extraction from biomedical literature has a broad range of applications, including support for information retrieval, knowledge summarization, and information extraction and discovery. However, automatic event extraction is a challenging task due to the ambiguity and diversity of natural language and higher-level linguistic phenomena, such as speculations and negations, which occur in biological texts and can lead to misunderstanding or incorrect interpretation. Many strategies have been proposed in the last decade, originating from different research areas such as natural language processing, machine learning, and statistics. This review summarizes the most representative approaches in biomolecular event extraction and presents an analysis of the current state of the art and of commonly used methods, features, and tools. Finally, current research trends and future perspectives are also discussed.

An Overview of Biomolecular Event Extraction from Scientific Documents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge A. Vanegas

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a review of state-of-the-art approaches to automatic extraction of biomolecular events from scientific texts. Events involving biomolecules such as genes, transcription factors, or enzymes, for example, have a central role in biological processes and functions and provide valuable information for describing physiological and pathogenesis mechanisms. Event extraction from biomedical literature has a broad range of applications, including support for information retrieval, knowledge summarization, and information extraction and discovery. However, automatic event extraction is a challenging task due to the ambiguity and diversity of natural language and higher-level linguistic phenomena, such as speculations and negations, which occur in biological texts and can lead to misunderstanding or incorrect interpretation. Many strategies have been proposed in the last decade, originating from different research areas such as natural language processing, machine learning, and statistics. This review summarizes the most representative approaches in biomolecular event extraction and presents an analysis of the current state of the art and of commonly used methods, features, and tools. Finally, current research trends and future perspectives are also discussed.

Early snowmelt events: detection, distribution, and significance in a major sub-arctic watershed

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Semmens, Kathryn Alese; Ramage, Joan; Bartsch, Annett; Liston, Glen E

2013-01-01

High latitude drainage basins are experiencing higher average temperatures, earlier snowmelt onset in spring, and an increase in rain on snow (ROS) events in winter, trends that climate models project into the future. Snowmelt-dominated basins are most sensitive to winter temperature increases that influence the frequency of ROS events and the timing and duration of snowmelt, resulting in changes to spring runoff. Of specific interest in this study are early melt events that occur in late winter preceding melt onset in the spring. The study focuses on satellite determination and characterization of these early melt events using the Yukon River Basin (Canada/USA) as a test domain. The timing of these events was estimated using data from passive (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer—EOS (AMSR-E)) and active (SeaWinds on Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT)) microwave remote sensors, employing detection algorithms for brightness temperature (AMSR-E) and radar backscatter (QuikSCAT). The satellite detected events were validated with ground station meteorological and hydrological data, and the spatial and temporal variability of the events across the entire river basin was characterized. Possible causative factors for the detected events, including ROS, fog, and positive air temperatures, were determined by comparing the timing of the events to parameters from SnowModel and National Centers for Environmental Prediction North American Regional Reanalysis (NARR) outputs, and weather station data. All melt events coincided with above freezing temperatures, while a limited number corresponded to ROS (determined from SnowModel and ground data) and a majority to fog occurrence (determined from NARR). The results underscore the significant influence that warm air intrusions have on melt in some areas and demonstrate the large temporal and spatial variability over years and regions. The study provides a method for melt detection and a baseline from which to assess future change

Environmental futures research at the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency

Science.gov (United States)

Robert L. Olson

2012-01-01

Relatively little research on environmental futures has been carried out in the United States. An exception is the long-running futures research that the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has been conducting since the 1970s. This paper reviews past and current efforts toward developing a capacity for environmental foresight within the EPA, and discusses some...

Event Index - a LHCb Event Search System

CERN Document Server

INSPIRE-00392208; Kazeev, Nikita; Redkin, Artem

2015-12-23

LHC experiments generate up to $10^{12}$ events per year. This paper describes Event Index - an event search system. Event Index's primary function is quickly selecting subsets of events from a combination of conditions, such as the estimated decay channel or stripping lines output. Event Index is essentially Apache Lucene optimized for read-only indexes distributed over independent shards on independent nodes.

The Concept of Carrying Capacity in Tourism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Josef Zelenka

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Carrying capacity is often pragmatically, theoretically as well as purely intuitively considered as a concept in the context of tourism sustainability. The carrying capacity application has the greatest potential in protected areas, in frequently visited cultural and natural attractions, and in relation to sustaining of the lifestyle of the local community and tourism destination potential in general. Despite its importance, partial applications, determination of basic theoretical principles, and specifying connection to the other theoretical concepts in tourism (particularly destination life cycle, LAC concept, visitors management, there still is a rightful opinion of some authors suggesting that there is no consistent theory of tourism carrying capacity. This theory would be the base for sophisticated practical carrying capacity applications. This paper is therefore focused on introduction of the theoretical concept of carrying capacity, which can be discussed and possibly further elaborated.

Changes in Extreme Events and the Potential Impacts on National Security

Science.gov (United States)

Bell, J.

2017-12-01

Extreme weather and climate events affect human health by causing death, injury, and illness, as well as having large socio-economic impacts. Climate change has caused changes in extreme event frequency, intensity and geographic distribution, and will continue to be a driver for changes in the future. Some of the extreme events that have already changed are heat waves, droughts, wildfires, flooding rains, coastal flooding, storm surge, and hurricanes. The pathways connecting extreme events to health outcomes and economic losses can be diverse and complex. The difficulty in predicting these relationships comes from the local intricacies of societal and environmental factors that influences the level of exposure. The goal of this presentation is to discuss the national security implications of changes in extreme weather events and demonstrate how changes in extremes can lead to a host cascading issues. To illustrate this point, this presentation will provide examples of the various pathways that extreme events can increase disease burden and cause economic stress.

Event segmentation ability uniquely predicts event memory.

Science.gov (United States)

Sargent, Jesse Q; Zacks, Jeffrey M; Hambrick, David Z; Zacks, Rose T; Kurby, Christopher A; Bailey, Heather R; Eisenberg, Michelle L; Beck, Taylor M

2013-11-01

Memory for everyday events plays a central role in tasks of daily living, autobiographical memory, and planning. Event memory depends in part on segmenting ongoing activity into meaningful units. This study examined the relationship between event segmentation and memory in a lifespan sample to answer the following question: Is the ability to segment activity into meaningful events a unique predictor of subsequent memory, or is the relationship between event perception and memory accounted for by general cognitive abilities? Two hundred and eight adults ranging from 20 to 79years old segmented movies of everyday events and attempted to remember the events afterwards. They also completed psychometric ability tests and tests measuring script knowledge for everyday events. Event segmentation and script knowledge both explained unique variance in event memory above and beyond the psychometric measures, and did so as strongly in older as in younger adults. These results suggest that event segmentation is a basic cognitive mechanism, important for memory across the lifespan. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Projections of hepatitis A virus infection associated with flood events by 2020 and 2030 in Anhui Province, China

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Lu; Zhang, Ying; Ding, Guoyong; Liu, Qiyong; Wang, Changke; Jiang, Baofa

2016-12-01

Assessing and responding to health risk of climate change is important because of its impact on the natural and societal ecosystems. More frequent and severe flood events will occur in China due to climate change. Given that population is projected to increase, more people will be vulnerable to flood events, which may lead to an increased incidence of HAV infection in the future. This population-based study is going to project the future health burden of HAV infection associated with flood events in Huai River Basin of China. The study area covered four cities of Anhui province in China, where flood events were frequent. Time-series adjusted Poisson regression model was developed to quantify the risks of flood events on HAV infection based on the number of daily cases during summer seasons from 2005 to 2010, controlling for other meteorological variables. Projections of HAV infection in 2020 and 2030 were estimated based on the scenarios of flood events and demographic data. Poisson regression model suggested that compared with the periods without flood events, the risks of severe flood events for HAV infection were significant (OR = 1.28, 95 % CI 1.05-1.55), while risks were not significant from moderate flood events (OR = 1.16, 95 % CI 0.72-1.87) and mild flood events (OR = 1.14, 95 % CI 0.87-1.48). Using the 2010 baseline data and the flood event scenarios (one severe flood event), increased incidence of HAV infection were estimated to be between 0.126/105 and 0.127/105 for 2020. Similarly, the increased HAV infection incidence for 2030 was projected to be between 0.382/105 and 0.399/105. Our study has, for the first time, quantified the increased incidence of HAV infection that will result from flood events in Anhui, China, in 2020 and 2030. The results have implications for public health preparation for developing public health responses to reduce HAV infection during future flood events.

Negative cognitive errors and positive illusions for negative divorce events: predictors of children's psychological adjustment.

Science.gov (United States)

Mazur, E; Wolchik, S A; Sandler, I N

1992-12-01

This study examined the relations among negative cognitive errors regarding hypothetical negative divorce events, positive illusions about those same events, actual divorce events, and psychological adjustment in 38 8- to 12-year-old children whose parents had divorced within the previous 2 years. Children's scores on a scale of negative cognitive errors (catastrophizing, overgeneralizing, and personalizing) correlated significantly with self-reported symptoms of anxiety and self-esteem, and with maternal reports of behavior problems. Children's scores on a scale measuring positive illusions (high self-regard, illusion of personal control, and optimism for the future) correlated significantly with less self-reported aggression. Both appraisal types accounted for variance in some measures of symptomatology beyond that explained by actual events. There was no significant association between children's negative cognitive errors and positive illusions. The implications of these results for theories of negative cognitive errors and of positive illusions, as well as for future research, are discussed.

SLHC, the high-luminosity upgrade (public event)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2009-01-01

In the morning of February 26th a public event is organised in CERN's main auditorium with the aim of informing the particle physics community about the current status of preparation work for the future LHC luminosity upgrade (Phase 1 and Phase 2). The presentations will provide an overview of the various accelerator sub-projects, the physics potential and the experiment upgrade plans. This event is organised in the framework of the SLHC-PP project, which receives funding from the European Commission for the preparatory phase of the SLHC project. Informing the public about the overall status of SLHC is among the objectives of this EU-funded project. A simultaneous transmission of this meeting will be broadcast, available at the following address: http://webcast.cern.ch/

Visions of a Semantic Molecular Future

OpenAIRE

Murray-Rust, Peter; Brooks, Brian; Bolton, Charlotte

2011-01-01

Booklet handout distributed at the VSMF Symposium held at the Unilever Centre on 2011-01-17 The event looks forward. Scholarship (universities, research, teaching, publishing) has been slow to take up the opportunities of this digital century. This is an opportunity to identify and build the future. EPSRC (Pathways to Impact Award). Unilever plc (Unilever Centre for Molecular Science Informatics)

Visions of a Semantic Molecular Future

OpenAIRE

Murray-Rust, Peter

2011-01-01

Additional booklet insert distributed at the VSMF Symposium held at the Unilever Centre on 2011-01-17 The event looks forward. Scholarship (universities, research, teaching, publishing) has been slow to take up the opportunities of this digital century. This is an opportunity to identify and build the future. EPSRC (Pathways to Impact award). Unilever plc (Unilever Centre for Molecular Science Informatics)

An overview of future sustainable nuclear power reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poullikkas, Andreas [Electricity Authority of Cyprus, P.O. Box 24506, 1399 Nicosia (Cyprus)

2013-07-01

In this paper an overview of the current and future nuclear power reactor technologies is carried out. In particular, the nuclear technology is described and the classification of the current and future nuclear reactors according to their generation is provided. The analysis has shown that generation II reactors currently in operation all around the world lack significantly in safety precautions and are prone to loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In contrast, generation III reactors, which are an evolution of generation II reactors, incorporate passive or inherent safety features that require no active controls or operational intervention to avoid accidents in the event of malfunction, and may rely on gravity, natural convection or resistance to high temperatures. Today, partly due to the high capital cost of large power reactors generating electricity and partly due to the consideration of public perception, there is a shift towards the development of smaller units. These may be built independently or as modules in a larger complex, with capacity added incrementally as required. Small reactors most importantly benefit from reduced capital costs, simpler units and the ability to produce power away from main grid systems. These factors combined with the ability of a nuclear power plant to use process heat for co-generation, make the small reactors an attractive option. Generally, modern small reactors for power generation are expected to have greater simplicity of design, economy of mass production and reduced installation costs. Many are also designed for a high level of passive or inherent safety in the event of malfunction. Generation III+ designs are generally extensions of the generation III concept, which include advanced passive safety features. These designs can maintain the safe state without the use of any active control components. Generation IV reactors, which are future designs that are currently under research and development, will tend to have closed

Issues in Informal Education: Event-Based Science Communication Involving Planetaria and the Internet

Science.gov (United States)

Adams, M.; Gallagher, D. L.; Whitt, A.; Six, N. Frank (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

For the past four years the Science Directorate at Marshall Space Flight Center has carried out a diverse program of science communication through the web resources on the Internet. The program includes extended stories about NAS.4 science, a curriculum resource for teachers tied to national education standards, on-line activities for students, and webcasts of real-time events. Events have involved meteor showers, solar eclipses, natural very low frequency radio emissions, and amateur balloon flights. In some cases broadcasts accommodate active feedback and questions from Internet participants. We give here, examples of events, problems, and lessons learned from these activities.

Mechanisms of remembering the past and imagining the future--new data from autobiographical memory tasks in a lifespan approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Abram, M; Picard, L; Navarro, B; Piolino, P

2014-10-01

We investigated the episodic/semantic distinction in remembering the past and imagining the future and explored cognitive mechanisms predicting events' specificity throughout the lifespan. Eighty-three 6- to 81-year-old participants, divided into 5 age groups, underwent past, present and future episodic (events' evocation) and semantic (self-descriptions) autobiographical tasks and a complementary cognitive test battery (executive functions, working and episodic memory). The main results showed age effects on episodic events' evocation indicating an inverted U function (i.e., developmental progression from 6 to 21years and aging decline). By contrast, age effects were slighter on self-descriptions while self-defining events' evocation increased with age. Furthermore, age effects on episodic events' evocation were mainly mediated by age effects on cognitive functions and personal semantics. These new findings indicate a developmental and aging episodic/semantic distinction for both remembering the past and imagining the future, and suggest that above similarities, these abilities could have a fundamentally different basis. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Generation of database for future decommissioning of CIRUS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sankar, S.; Rao, D.V.H.; Vakharwala, K.J.; Jauhri, G.H.; Maheshchandra

2002-01-01

Safe decommissioning of a research reactor in a planned manner is inevitable at the end of its useful life even after refurbishment and life extension. This involves advance planning, adopting state of the art technology, development of required new technology, a well thought out plan for nuclear waste management and necessary research and development in the areas of decontamination to recycle and reuse most of the metallic materials. The 40 MW thermal research reactor CIRUS at Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai, India is being refurbished after 37 years of operation. Several part-decommissioning activities were carried out during the refurbishment. This was also the right time and state of the reactor to generate the necessary data and document the experience gained and lessons learned to aid in the planning for future decommissioning of CIRUS. This report presents the details of radiological mapping and characterization studies carried out, experience gained in cleaning/decontamination, dismantlement works carried out for repairs/replacement of structures, systems and components and development of new devices/techniques. It is expected that this work would considerably aid in working out an appropriate strategy of decommissioning of CIRUS when needed in the future. (author)

Analysis of external flooding events occurred in foreign nuclear power plant sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Dan; Cai Hankun; Xiao Zhi; An Hongzhen; Mao Huan

2013-01-01

This paper screens and studies 17 external flooding events occurred in foreign NPP sites, analysis the characteristic of external flooding events based on the source of the flooding, the impact on the building, systems and equipment, as well as the threat to nuclear safety. Furthermore, based on the experiences and lessons learned from Fukushima nuclear accident relating to external flooding and countermeasures carried out in the world, some suggestions are proposed in order to improve external flooding response capacity for Chinese NPPs. (authors)

Post-event spontaneous intrusive recollections and strength of memory for emotional events in men and women

Science.gov (United States)

Ferree, Nikole K.; Cahill, Larry

2009-01-01

Spontaneous intrusive recollections (SIRs) follow traumatic events in clinical and non-clinical populations. To determine whether any relationship exists between SIRs and enhanced memory for emotional events, participants viewed emotional or neutral films, had their memory for the films tested two days later, and estimated the number of SIRs they experienced for each film. SIR frequency related positively to memory strength, an effect more pronounced in the emotional condition. These findings represent the first demonstration of a relationship between SIRs occurring after an emotional experience and subsequent memory strength for that experience. The results are consistent with the possibility that emotional arousal leads both to elevated SIR frequency and better memory, and that the covert rehearsal associated with SIRs enhances memory for emotional relative to neutral stimuli. Additional evidence of menstrual cycle influences on SIR incidence in female participants appears to merit consideration in future work. PMID:19131257

Possible future HERA analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geiser, Achim

2015-12-01

A variety of possible future analyses of HERA data in the context of the HERA data preservation programme is collected, motivated, and commented. The focus is placed on possible future analyses of the existing ep collider data and their physics scope. Comparisons to the original scope of the HERA pro- gramme are made, and cross references to topics also covered by other participants of the workshop are given. This includes topics on QCD, proton structure, diffraction, jets, hadronic final states, heavy flavours, electroweak physics, and the application of related theory and phenomenology topics like NNLO QCD calculations, low-x related models, nonperturbative QCD aspects, and electroweak radiative corrections. Synergies with other collider programmes are also addressed. In summary, the range of physics topics which can still be uniquely covered using the existing data is very broad and of considerable physics interest, often matching the interest of results from colliders currently in operation. Due to well-established data and MC sets, calibrations, and analysis procedures the manpower and expertise needed for a particular analysis is often very much smaller than that needed for an ongoing experiment. Since centrally funded manpower to carry out such analyses is not available any longer, this contribution not only targets experienced self-funded experimentalists, but also theorists and master-level students who might wish to carry out such an analysis.

External man-induced events on nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paganini, C.E.

1982-01-01

These notes for the postgraduate course on Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety deal with the effects produced by some human activities on the siting and design of a nuclear installation. The existing activities, as well as the foreseen or foreseeable future ones are evaluated. In the first place, the potential sources of events are identified and classified in two categories: stationary and mobile, and the events are classified in five groups: 1) Aircraft crash; 2) Chemical explosions; 3) Discharge of dangerous fluids (explosive, toxic or corrosive); 4) Fire, and 5) Sabotage, terrorism, guerrillas. Then, the effects which may result from these events and affect the nuclear installation are studied: 1) pressure waves; 2) Impact of missiles; 3) Heat, fire; 4) Smoke and dust; 5) Gas or inflammable and/or explosive dust clouds; 6) Toxic and/or corrosive gases and liquids; 7) Ground shaking; 8) Flooding or lack of water; 9) Foundations failure or collapse. Next, the methods for making a deterministic and/or a probabilistic study (or both) are indicated for each event considered, and from these studies the ''screening'' values which allow to determine if an event can be rejected or must be considered are established. For this second case, the method for obtaining the ''design event'' that shall serve as a basis for the design of the plant is indicated. (M.E.L.) [es

The study of past damaging hydrogeological events for damage susceptibility zonation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O. Petrucci

2008-08-01

Full Text Available Damaging Hydrogeological Events are defined as periods during which phenomena, such as landslides, floods and secondary floods, cause damage to people and the environment.

A Damaging Hydrogeological Event which heavily damaged Calabria (Southern Italy between December 1972, and January 1973, has been used to test a procedure to be utilised in the zonation of a province according to damage susceptibility during DHEs. In particular, we analyzed the province of Catanzaro (2391 km², an administrative district composed of 80 municipalities, with about 370 000 inhabitants.

Damage, defined in relation to the reimbursement requests sent to the Department of Public Works, has been quantified using a procedure based on a Local Damage Index. The latter, representing classified losses, has been obtained by multiplying the value of the damaged element and the percentage of damage affecting it.

Rainfall has been described by the Maximum Return Period of cumulative rainfall, for both short (1, 3, 5, 7, 10 consecutive days and long duration (30, 60, 90, 180 consecutive days, recorded during the event.

Damage index and population density, presumed to represent the location of vulnerable elements, have been referred to Thiessen polygons associated to rain gauges working at the time of the event.

The procedure allowed us to carry out a preliminary classification of the polygons composing the province according to their susceptibility to damage during DHEs. In high susceptibility polygons, severe damage occurs during rainfall characterised by low return periods; in medium susceptibility polygons maximum return period rainfall and induced damage show equal levels of exceptionality; in low susceptibility polygons, high return period rainfall induces a low level of damage.

The east and west sectors of the province show the highest susceptibility, while polygons of the N-NE sector show the lowest

Difference in Career Attitudes of Elementary Minority Female Students after Participation in a STEM Event

Science.gov (United States)

Pumphrey, Karyn Christine

Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) professionals are responsible for the development of new technologies and breaking scientific discoveries. However, in the United States, racial minorities and females are vastly underrepresented in STEM professions. This problem is multiplied for individuals falling into both categories. Educators in must develop effective strategies to increase the number of minority females in STEM jobs. The purpose of this quantitative study was to investigate if there was a difference in attitudes about future STEM educational choices and career opportunities after participation in a theme-based STEM event. The significant points reflected in the literature are statistics that demonstrate the extreme underrepresentation of this population and the importance of having all segments of the population represented in these important jobs. A descriptive non-experimental design study utilizing survey data taken before and after a STEM day at a public school was employed. The analysis tool was the Hopes and Goals Survey which has been found valid and reliable with similar samples of students. The data sets were pre-event and post-event surveys from minority females in grades 3, 4, and 5. The two data sets were compared using descriptive statistics to investigate any differences in opinions before and after the event. The results showed a difference in minority female student's attitudes regarding future STEM educational opportunities and careers after participation in a theme-based STEM event. The results indicate a need for increasing the number of STEM events in public schools. Future research may explore the differences between the opinion changes of males versus females to ascertain which gender responded most positively to STEM day.

Environmental conditions during breeding modify the strength of mass-dependent carry-over effects in a migratory bird.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xavier A Harrison

Full Text Available In many animals, processes occurring in one season carry over to influence reproductive success and survival in future seasons. The strength of such carry-over effects is unlikely to be uniform across years, yet our understanding of the processes that are capable of modifying their strength remains limited. Here we show that female light-bellied Brent geese with higher body mass prior to spring migration successfully reared more offspring during breeding, but only in years where environmental conditions during breeding were favourable. In years of bad weather during breeding, all birds suffered reduced reproductive output irrespective of pre-migration mass. Our results suggest that the magnitude of reproductive benefits gained by maximising body stores to fuel breeding fluctuates markedly among years in concert with conditions during the breeding season, as does the degree to which carry-over effects are capable of driving variance in reproductive success among individuals. Therefore while carry-over effects have considerable power to drive fitness asymmetries among individuals, our ability to interpret these effects in terms of their implications for population dynamics is dependent on knowledge of fitness determinants occurring in subsequent seasons. 

Projecting future impacts of hurricanes on the carbon balance of eastern U.S. forests

Science.gov (United States)

Fisk, J. P.; Hurtt, G. C.; Chambers, J. Q.; Zeng, H.; Dolan, K.; Flanagan, S.; Rourke, O.; Negron Juarez, R. I.

2011-12-01

In U.S. Atlantic coastal areas, hurricanes are a principal agent of catastrophic wind damage, with dramatic impacts on the structure and functioning of forests. Substantial recent progress has been made to estimate the biomass loss and resulting carbon emissions caused by hurricanes impacting the U.S. Additionally, efforts to evaluate the net effects of hurricanes on the regional carbon balance have demonstrated the importance of viewing large disturbance events in the broader context of recovery from a mosaic of past events. Viewed over sufficiently long time scales and large spatial scales, regrowth from previous storms may largely offset new emissions; however, changes in number, strength or spatial distribution of extreme disturbance events will result in changes to the equilibrium state of the ecosystem and have the potential to result in a lasting carbon source or sink. Many recent studies have linked climate change to changes in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. In this study, we use a mechanistic ecosystem model, the Ecosystem Demography (ED) model, driven by scenarios of future hurricane activity based on historic activity and future climate projections, to evaluate how changes in hurricane frequency, intensity and spatial distribution could affect regional carbon storage and flux over the coming century. We find a non-linear response where increased storm activity reduces standing biomass stocks reducing the impacts of future events. This effect is highly dependent on the spatial pattern and repeat interval of future hurricane activity. Developing this kind of predictive modeling capability that tracks disturbance events and recovery is key to our understanding and ability to predict the carbon balance of forests.

Impact of Damaging Geo-Hydrological Events and Population Development in Calabria, Southern Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Maurizio Polemio

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Damaging geo-Hydrogeological Events (DHEs are defined as the occurrence of destructive phenomena (such as landslides and floods that can cause damage to people and goods during periods of bad weather. These phenomena should be analyzed together as they actually occur because their interactions can both amplify the damage and obstruct emergency management. The occurrence of DHEs depends on the interactions between climatic and geomorphological features: except for long-term climatic changes, these interactions can be considered constant, and for this reason, some areas are systematically affected. However, damage scenarios can change; events that occurred in the past could presently cause different effects depending on the modifications that occurred in the geographical distribution of vulnerable elements. We analyzed a catastrophic DHE that in 1951 affected an area 3700 km2 wide, located in Calabria (southern Italy, with four-day cumulative rainfall exceeding 300 mm and return periods of daily rain exceeding 500 Y. It resulted in 101 victims and 4500 homeless individuals. The probability that a similar event will happen again in the future is assessed using the return period of the triggering rainfall, whereas the different anthropogenic factors are taken into account by means of the population densities at the time of the event and currently. The result is a classification of regional municipalities according to the probability that events such as the one analyzed will occur again in the future and the possible effects of this event on the current situation.

Enterprise grid and the future of IT

CERN Multimedia

2007-01-01

Interview with Rolf Kubli, a fellow of EDS, a Switzerland-based technology services company and CERN openlab contributors, previews his presentation at this week's OGF20/EGEE User Forum event and shares his thoughts on its theme" "Beliefs about the future of IT and how they relate to the enterprise grid vision. (2,5 pages)

Research frontiers in climate change: Effects of extreme meteorological events on ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jentsch, A.; Jentsch, A.; Beierkuhnlein, C.

2008-01-01

Climate change will increase the recurrence of extreme weather events such as drought and heavy rainfall. Evidence suggests that modifications in extreme weather events pose stronger threats to ecosystem functioning than global trends and shifts in average conditions. As ecosystem functioning is connected with ecological services, this has far-reaching effects on societies in the 21. century. Here, we: (i) present the rationale for the increasing frequency and magnitude of extreme weather events in the near future; (ii) discuss recent findings on meteorological extremes and summarize their effects on ecosystems and (iii) identify gaps in current ecological climate change research. (authors)

Carrying capacity and tourism planning. case study at Praia Brava- Itajai, in face to the settlement of Canto da Brava Resort

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doris Van de Meene Ruschmann

2008-05-01

Full Text Available Sustainable tourism presumes cultural authenticity, social inclusion, conservation of natural resources and service quality. Those are major issues standing for economical viability in the long run. This article analyzes carrying capacity in Praia Brava, Itajai/SC, evaluating environmental comfort for dwellers as well as for users of the beach building future scenarios as Canto da Brava resort is settled. Tourism carrying capacity is tied to methods of identification and evaluation of environmental indicators. In this case, Cifuentes Method was chosen because it integrates physical, biotical and infra structural factors, through assessment of physical, real and effective carrying capacity. Quantitative results have been considered analyzing impacts and tolerable limits of change taking into account users perception.

Future extreme events in European climate: An exploration of regional climate model projections

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Beniston, M.; Stephenson, D.B.; Christensen, O.B.

2007-01-01

-90) and future (2071-2 100) climate on the basis of regional climate model simulations produced by the PRUDENCE project. A summary of the main results follows. Heat waves - Regional surface warming causes the frequency, intensity and duration of heat waves to increase over Europe. By the end of the twenty first...

Episodic Future Thinking in Semantic Dementia: A Cognitive and fMRI Study

Science.gov (United States)

Viard, Armelle; Piolino, Pascale; Belliard, Serge; de La Sayette, Vincent; Desgranges, Béatrice; Eustache, Francis

2014-01-01

Semantic dementia (SD) is characterized by gradual loss of semantic memory. While episodic autobiographical memory seems relatively preserved, behavioral studies suggest that episodic future thinking is impaired. We used fMRI to measure brain activity in four SD patients (JPL, EP, LL, EG) while they envisioned future events and remembered personal past events. Twelve healthy elders served as controls. Episodic quality, emotion, mental imagery and level of consciousness (via remember/know judgements) were checked at debriefing. We analyzed the future compared to the past for each patient. All patients presented lateral temporal atrophy, but varied in terms of frontal and anterior hippocampal atrophy. Patient JPL presented atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and left anterior hippocampus and was unable to engage in episodic future thinking, despite hyperactivations in frontal and occipital regions. Patient EP presented no atrophy in the anterior hippocampus, but atrophy in bilateral superior medial frontal gyrus and had difficulties to engage in episodic future thinking. Patient LL presented atrophy in left anterior hippocampus, but hyperactivated its right counterpart for future compared to past thinking, permitting her to project efficiently in the future in an episodic way. Patient EG presented no atrophy in the superior medial frontal gyri or anterior hippocampi and was able to engage in episodic future thinking. Altogether, patients' future projections differed depending on the severity and localization of their atrophy. The functional integrity of bilateral superior medial frontal gyri and anterior hippocampus appear crucial for episodic future thinking: atrophy of both structures strongly impairs future projection, while integrity of these structures or hyperactivation of residual tissue normalizes episodic future projection. PMID:25333997

Review of evaluation on ecological carrying capacity: The progress and trend of methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, S. F.; Xu, Y.; Liu, T. J.; Ye, J. M.; Pan, B. L.; Chu, C.; Peng, Z. L.

2018-02-01

The ecological carrying capacity (ECC) has been regarded as an important reference to indicate the level of regional sustainable development since the very beginning of twenty-first century. By a brief review of the main progress in ECC evaluation methodologies in recent five years, this paper systematically discusses the features and differences of these methods and expounds the current states and future development trend of ECC methodology. The result shows that further exploration in terms of the dynamic, comprehensive and intelligent assessment technologies needs to be provided in order to form a unified and scientific ECC methodology system and to produce a reliable basis for environmental-economic decision-makings.

The flexible application of carrying capacity in ecology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric J. Chapman

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Carrying capacity encompasses a broad collection of approaches used to better understand biotic interactions in ecosystems and is often applied with no explicit regard to its historical origin. In this paper, we reviewed the primary literature to examine how carrying capacity is applied in ecology. We focused our review on ecosystem studies—studies that frame their results at the ecosystem level—published after the 1950s and highlight emerging trends of this concept. We found that while carrying capacity offers some underlying commonalities, a wide range of definitions and approaches hinders a unified framework to better understand biotic ecosystem interactions. Not surprisingly, these studies most often use K—the number of individuals that the environment “can support” in a given area—to define carrying capacity, despite considerable ambiguity and uncertainty in this approach. Furthermore, the studies that we reviewed spanned several levels of ecological organization: molecules to communities and up to landscapes. To add further complexity, it is not clear whether carrying capacity was intended as a dynamic concept subject to temporal variability as it was often applied in the reviewed studies. We found that carrying capacity is most often applied to studies in conservation biology, rangeland and wildlife management, aquaculture, and fisheries biology. We explore ecosystem level responses to implications of “carrying capacity” overshoot and discuss proposed mechanisms that govern ecosystem carrying capacity. We discuss the usefulness of the concept and end with suggestions to improve carrying capacity's general application in ecosystem studies. Keywords: Carrying capacity, Conservation biology, Ecosystems, Ecosystem management, Natural resources

Foresight beyond the very next event: Four-year-olds can link past and deferred future episodes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathan eRedshaw

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Previous experiments have demonstrated that by four years of age children can use information from a past episode to solve a problem for the very next future episode. However, it remained unclear whether four-year-olds can similarly use such information to solve a problem for a more removed future episode that is not of immediate concern. In the current study we introduced four-year-olds to problems in one room before taking them to another room and distracting them for 15 minutes. The children were then offered a choice of items to place into a bucket that was to be taken back to the first room when a five-minute sand-timer had completed a cycle. Across two conceptually distinct domains, the children placed the item that could solve the deferred future problem above chance level. This result demonstrates that by 48 months many children can recall a problem from the past and act in the present to solve that problem for a deferred future episode. We discuss implications for theories about the nature of episodic foresight.

The Study of Traditional and Non-traditional Marketing Communications: Target Marketing in the Events Sector.

OpenAIRE

Geraghty, Gordon; Conway, Ann T

2016-01-01

There is a vast array of information on marketing but there is little literature on event marketing, specifically target marketing for events. The event sector is one that is constantly changing; the need to reinvent, innovate and self-disrupt is part and parcel for a sector that seeks to constantly entertain and turn a profit, so too is the marketing sector. The research was carried out using face-to-face in-depth interviews and 1 focus group, all of which were audio recorded with the con...

Short communication Facing the future: between altruism and self ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

user

happiness with you have great expectations for your futures. .... This occasion and event will remain marked in your minds and memories for the rest of your lives. ... deserve your attention because of their long term societal relevance and their ...

Occurrence in Mexico, 1998–2008, of Vibrio cholerae CTX+ El Tor carrying an additional truncated CTX prophage

OpenAIRE

Alam, Munirul; Rashed, Shah Manzur; Mannan, Shahnewaj Bin; Islam, Tarequl; Lizarraga-Partida, Marcial Leonardo; Delgado, Gabriela; Morales-Espinosa, Rosario; Mendez, Jose Luis; Navarro, Armando; Watanabe, Haruo; Ohnishi, Makoto; Hasan, Nur A.; Huq, Anwar; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita R.

2014-01-01

Vibrio cholerae classical (CL) biotype was isolated, along with biotype El Tor (ET) and altered ET carrying the cholera toxin (CTX) gene of CL biotype, during the 1991 cholera epidemic in Mexico, subsequently becoming endemic until 1997. Microbiological, molecular, and phylogenetic analyses of V. cholerae isolated from both clinical and environmental samples during 1998–2008 confirm important genetic events, namely predominance of ET over CL and altered ET in Mexico. Although altered ET is pr...

Original article Future perspectives as a condition of positive adaptation of young adults after traumatic experience

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marzanna Farnicka

2014-10-01

Full Text Available Background The paper presents the results of a study on the possible role of sense of influencing one’s life and expectations towards the future as a personal condition of adaptation. In accordance with the theory of formulation of temporal perspectives, these variables were assumed to be related to construction of the psychological reality of the subjects. Participants and procedure The study involved 162 adults in two groups, with traumatic experience and without such experience, aged 18-35. The tools used in the study included: Rosenberg Self-Esteem Scale (SES, Boszkiewicz Questionnaire: Life Experience Questionnaire, events evaluation and expectations of changes in the future. Results The study revealed significant differences between people from the two groups in the scope of self-evaluation, sense of influence on events and future expectations. Conclusions The results pointed to the need for adjustment of therapeutic and preventive treatment to future expectations, evaluation of events and the current stage of development, as indicated by personal conditions of adaptation.

Supersymmetry: Current status and future prospects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baer, H.; Barnett, R.M.; Bhattacharya, G.

1990-11-01

We review the most recent data from e + e - and p bar p colliders and discuss the resulting constraints on the parameters of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model, and their implications for future supersymmetry searches. We review the patterns of cascade decays of squarks and gluinos and discuss the present status of supersymmetry event generators for hadron colliders. We present the results of detailed simulations of E T and same sign dilepton events from supersymmetry at the Tevatron. Although the E T signal continues to be viable, it is concluded that the same sign dilepton signal may be too small unless squarks and gluinos are approximately degenerate. The E T and the same-sign dilepton signals from supersymmetry and the Standard Model backgrounds at the SSC are also discussed in detail. We also discuss other promising ways of searching for supersymmetry at the SSC including events containing Z degree bosons, and events containing n isolated leptons (n ≥ 3). Finally, we discuss how supersymmetry searches might be modified if the Higgs sectors is more complicated or if R-parity is not conserved due to baryon number violating interactions. 49 refs., 12 figs

US computer research networks: Current and future

Science.gov (United States)

Kratochvil, D.; Sood, D.; Verostko, A.

1989-01-01

During the last decade, NASA LeRC's Communication Program has conducted a series of telecommunications forecasting studies to project trends and requirements and to identify critical telecommunications technologies that must be developed to meet future requirements. The Government Networks Division of Contel Federal Systems has assisted NASA in these studies, and the current study builds upon these earlier efforts. The current major thrust of the NASA Communications Program is aimed at developing the high risk, advanced, communications satellite and terminal technologies required to significantly increase the capacity of future communications systems. Also, major new technological, economic, and social-political events and trends are now shaping the communications industry of the future. Therefore, a re-examination of future telecommunications needs and requirements is necessary to enable NASA to make management decisions in its Communications Program and to ensure the proper technologies and systems are addressed. This study, through a series of Task Orders, is helping NASA define the likely communication service needs and requirements of the future and thereby ensuring that the most appropriate technology developments are pursued.

Measuring Social carrying Capacity: An Exploratory Study

OpenAIRE

López-Bonilla, Jesús Manuel; López-Bonilla, Luis Miguel

2007-01-01

The tourist carrying capacity commands a growing interest given that it is closely linked with sustainable tourist development. The justification of the utility of this concept is given by means of a simple and efficient methodological proposal, by analysing the social carrying capacity. To this end, an empirical application is carried out in the Western Andalusia. In some of the cases analysed, the satisfaction of the tourist is found to decline when the levels of the tourist use are higher ...

Wondering what the future holds

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Reinecke Hansen, Kenneth; Blom, Jonas Nygaard

2014-01-01

This article proposes a testable method for identifying guesses on future events in news journalism. By combining linguistic theories on speech acts and non-reality, the article seeks to bring clarity on the fuzzy concepts of guessing, conjecturing, predicting and speculating which have previously...... reliability (Krippendorff’s α = 0.88) on a case corpus (n = 1939 sentences). The article concludes by emphasizing the necessity of elaborate definitions and a testing device when dealing with speech acts in content analysis....

Estimating the probability of rare events: addressing zero failure data.

Science.gov (United States)

Quigley, John; Revie, Matthew

2011-07-01

Traditional statistical procedures for estimating the probability of an event result in an estimate of zero when no events are realized. Alternative inferential procedures have been proposed for the situation where zero events have been realized but often these are ad hoc, relying on selecting methods dependent on the data that have been realized. Such data-dependent inference decisions violate fundamental statistical principles, resulting in estimation procedures whose benefits are difficult to assess. In this article, we propose estimating the probability of an event occurring through minimax inference on the probability that future samples of equal size realize no more events than that in the data on which the inference is based. Although motivated by inference on rare events, the method is not restricted to zero event data and closely approximates the maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) for nonzero data. The use of the minimax procedure provides a risk adverse inferential procedure where there are no events realized. A comparison is made with the MLE and regions of the underlying probability are identified where this approach is superior. Moreover, a comparison is made with three standard approaches to supporting inference where no event data are realized, which we argue are unduly pessimistic. We show that for situations of zero events the estimator can be simply approximated with 1/2.5n, where n is the number of trials. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

Spontaneous innovation for future deception in a male chimpanzee.

Science.gov (United States)

Osvath, Mathias; Karvonen, Elin

2012-01-01

The ability to invent means to deceive others, where the deception lies in the perceptually or contextually detached future, appears to require the coordination of sophisticated cognitive skills toward a single goal. Meanwhile innovation for a current situation has been observed in a wide range of species. Planning, on the one hand, and the social cognition required for deception on the other, have been linked to one another, both from a co-evolutionary and a neuroanatomical perspective. Innovation and deception have also been suggested to be connected in their nature of relying on novelty. We report on systematic observations suggesting innovation for future deception by a captive male chimpanzee (Pan troglodytes). As an extension of previously described behaviour--caching projectiles for later throwing at zoo visitors--the chimpanzee, again in advance, manufactured concealments from hay, as well as used naturally occurring concealments. All were placed near the visitors' observation area, allowing the chimpanzee to make throws before the crowd could back off. We observed what was likely the first instance of this innovation. Further observations showed that the creation of future-oriented concealments became the significantly preferred strategy. What is more, the chimpanzee appeared consistently to combine two deceptive strategies: hiding projectiles and inhibiting dominance display behaviour. The findings suggest that chimpanzees can represent the future behaviours of others while those others are not present, as well as take actions in the current situation towards such potential future behaviours. Importantly, the behaviour of the chimpanzee produced a future event, rather than merely prepared for an event that had been reliably re-occurring in the past. These findings might indicate that the chimpanzee recombined episodic memories in perceptual simulations.

Sport tourism event impacts on the host community – a case study of ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Journal for Research in Sport, Physical Education and ... Sport tourism event impacts on the host community – a case study of Red Bull Big Wave Africa ... and direct observations were carried out as methods of obtaining data.

Extreme Events in China under Climate Change: Uncertainty and related impacts (CSSP-FOREX)

Science.gov (United States)

Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Befort, Daniel J.; Hodges, Kevin I.

2016-04-01

Suitable adaptation strategies or the timely initiation of related mitigation efforts in East Asia will strongly depend on robust and comprehensive information about future near-term as well as long-term potential changes in the climate system. Therefore, understanding the driving mechanisms associated with the East Asian climate is of major importance. The FOREX project (Fostering Regional Decision Making by the Assessment of Uncertainties of Future Regional Extremes and their Linkage to Global Climate System Variability for China and East Asia) focuses on the investigation of extreme wind and rainfall related events over Eastern Asia and their possible future changes. Here, analyses focus on the link between local extreme events and their driving weather systems. This includes the coupling between local rainfall extremes and tropical cyclones, the Meiyu frontal system, extra-tropical teleconnections and monsoonal activity. Furthermore, the relation between these driving weather systems and large-scale variability modes, e.g. NAO, PDO, ENSO is analysed. Thus, beside analysing future changes of local extreme events, the temporal variability of their driving weather systems and related large-scale variability modes will be assessed in current CMIP5 global model simulations to obtain more robust results. Beyond an overview of FOREX itself, first results regarding the link between local extremes and their steering weather systems based on observational and reanalysis data are shown. Special focus is laid on the contribution of monsoonal activity, tropical cyclones and the Meiyu frontal system on the inter-annual variability of the East Asian summer rainfall.

Trans-oceanic transport of {sup 137}Cs from the Fukushima nuclear accident and impact of hypothetical Fukushima-like events of future nuclear plants in Southern China

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wai, Ka-Ming, E-mail: bhkmwai@cityu.edu.hk [Department of Geological and Mining Engineering and Sciences, Michigan Technological University, Houghton, MI (United States); Department of Physics and Material Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (China); Yu, Peter K.N. [Department of Physics and Material Science, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong (China)

2015-03-01

A Lagrangian model was adopted to assess the potential impact of {sup 137}Cs released from hypothetical Fukushima-like accidents occurring on three potential nuclear power plant sites in Southern China in the near future (planned within 10 years) in four different seasons. The maximum surface (0–500 m) {sup 137}Cs air concentrations would be reached 10 Bq m{sup −3} near the source, comparable to the Fukushima case. In January, Southeast Asian countries would be mostly affected by the radioactive plume due to the effects of winter monsoon. In April, the impact would be mainly on Southern and Northern China. Debris of radioactive plume (∼ 1 mBq m{sup −3}) would carry out long-range transport to North America. The area of influence would be the smallest in July due to the frequent and intense wet removal events by trough of low pressure and tropical cyclone. The maximum worst-case areas of influence were 2382000, 2327000, 517000 and 1395000 km{sup 2} in January, April, July and October, respectively. Prior to the above calculations, the model was employed to simulate the trans-oceanic transport of {sup 137}Cs from the Fukushima nuclear accident. Observed and modeled {sup 137}Cs concentrations were comparable. Sensitivity runs were performed to optimize the wet scavenging parameterization. The adoption of higher-resolution (1° × 1°) meteorological fields improved the prediction. The computed large-scale plume transport pattern over the Pacific Ocean was compared with that reported in the literature. - Highlights: • A Lagrangian model was used to predict the dispersion of {sup 137}Cs from plant accident. • Observed and modeled {sup 137}Cs concentrations were comparable for the Fukushima accident. • The maximum surface concentrations could reach 10 Bq m{sup −3} for the hypothetical case. • The hypothetical radiative plumes could impact E/SE Asia and N. America.

A hydrological analysis of the 4 November 2011 event in Genoa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Silvestro

2012-09-01

Full Text Available On the 4 November 2011 a flash flood event hit the area of Genoa with dramatic consequences. Such an event represents, from the meteorological and hydrological perspective, a paradigm of flash floods in the Mediterranean environment.

The hydro-meteorological probabilistic forecasting system for small and medium size catchments in use at the Civil Protection Centre of Liguria region exhibited excellent performances for the event, by predicting, 24–48 h in advance, the potential level of risk associated with the forecast. It greatly helped the decision makers in issuing a timely and correct alert.

In this work we present the operational outputs of the system provided during the Liguria events and the post event hydrological modelling analysis that has been carried out accounting also for the crowd sourcing information and data. We discuss the benefit of the implemented probabilistic systems for decision-making under uncertainty, highlighting how, in this case, the multi-catchment approach used for predicting floods in small basins has been crucial.

The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Business Events at Natural Spas – The Slovenian Case

OpenAIRE

Janez Mekinc; Maša Budnar Radilovic; Boštjan Bizjak

2012-01-01

To determine the impact of the economic downturn that officially hit Slovenia in 2009 on the number, purpose, type and budgets of business events held at Slovenian natural spas. The study’s aim is to develop guidelines in the field of business events management at Slovenian natural spas. The research was carried out among key representatives from Slovenian natural spas who play an active role in managing events. Data were via a questionnaire that collected information about the purpose, numbe...

Treatment of photon radiation in kinematics fits at future e+e- colliders

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beckmann, M.; List, J.; List, B.

2010-05-01

Kinematic fitting, where constraints such as energy and momentum conservation are imposed on measured four-vectors of jets and leptons, is an important tool to improve the resolution in high-energy physics experiments. At future e + e - colliders, photon radiation parallel to the beam carrying away large amounts of energy and momentum will become a challenge for kinematic fitting. A photon with longitudinal momentum p z,γ (η) is introduced, which is parametrized such that η follows a normal distribution. In the fit, η is treated as having a measured value of zero, which corresponds to p z,γ , = 0. As a result, fits with constraints on energy and momentum conservation converge well even in the presence of a highly energetic photon, while the resolution of fits without such a photon is retained. A fully simulated and reconstructed e + e - →q anti qq anti q event sample at √(s)=500 GeV is used to investigate the performance of this method under realistic conditions, as expected at the International Linear Collider. (orig.)

Analyses of Design Extended Condition Events for the Prototype Gen-IV SFR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Chiwoong; Jeong, Taekyung; Lee, Kwilim; Jeong, Jaeho; Ha, Kwiseok

2015-01-01

In this study, the sensitivity tests are conducted. In the case of the UTOP event, a sensitivity test for the reactivity insertion amount and rate were conducted. This analysis can give a requirement for margin of control rod stop system (CRSS). For example, the CRSS in the PRISM designed based on the 0.4 $ reactivity insertion, which is analyzed with safety analysis of UTOP event. Moreover, the sensitivity tests for weighting factor in the core radial expansion reactivity feedback model were also carried out for all ATWS events. Currently, the reactivity feedback model for the PGSFR is not validated yet. However, the reactivity feedback models in the MARS-LMR are validating with various plant-based data including EBR-II SHRT. The ATWS events for the PGSFR classified in the design extended condition including UTOP, ULOF, and ULOHS are analyzed with MARS-LMR. In this study, the sensitivity tests for reactivity insertion amount and rate in the UTOP event are conducted. The reactivity insertion amount is obviously an influential parameter. The reactivity insertion amount can give a requirement for design of the CRSS, therefore, this sensitivity result is very important to the CRSS. In addition, sensitivity tests for the weighting factor in the radial expansion reactivity model are carried out. The weighting factor for a grid plate, W GP , which means contribution of feedback in the grid plate is changed for all unprotected events. The grid plate expansion is governed by a core inlet temperature. As the W GP is increased, the power in the UTOP and the ULOF is increased, however, the power in the ULOHS is decreased. The higher power during transient means lower reactivity feedback and smaller expansion. Thus, the core outlet temperature rise is dominant in the UTOP and ULOF events, however, the core inlet temperature rise is dominant in the ULOHS. Therefore, the grid plate expansion in the ULOHS is predominant

Becoming a "second victim" in health care: Pathway of recovery after adverse event.

Science.gov (United States)

Rinaldi, C; Leigheb, F; Vanhaecht, K; Donnarumma, C; Panella, M

2016-07-01

The healthcare worker involved in an unanticipated adverse patient event can become second victim. These workers suffer physically and psycho-socially and try to overcome the post-event emotional stress by obtaining emotional support in a variety of ways. The goal of this research was to study second victims among health care providers in Italy. This contribution contains the results of 33 interviews of nurses, physicians and other healthcare workers. After institutional approval, the semi-structured interview, composed of 25 questions, was translated from English into Italian. The audio-interviews were transcribed on paper verbatim by the interviewer. It was then verified if the interviewees experienced the six post-event stages of second victim recovery previously described within the literature. The interviewees described the post-event recovery stages described by literature but stages were not detailed in the exact succession order as the American study. All participants clearly remembered the adverse event and referred the physical and psycho-social symptoms. The psychological support obtained by second victims was described as poor and inefficient. The post-event recovery pathway is predictable but not always clearly respected as defined within this Italian sample. Future study of the second-victim phenomenon and desired supportive interventions is necessary to understand the experience and interventions to mitigate harm of future clinicians. Every day healthcare workers become second victims and, considering that human resources are the most important heritage of healthcare infrastructures, after an adverse event it is very important to execute valid interventional programs to support and train these workers. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

When Siberia came to the Netherlands: The response of continental black-tailed godwits to a rare spring weather event

Science.gov (United States)

Senner, Nathan R.; Verhoeven, Mo A.; Abad-Gómez, José M.; Gutiérrez, Jorge S.; Hooijmeijer, Jos C. E. W.; Kentie, Rosemarie; Masero, José A.; Tibbitts, T. Lee; Piersma, Theunis

2015-01-01

Summary Extreme weather events have the potential to alter both short- and long-term population dynamics as well as community- and ecosystem-level function. Such events are rare and stochastic, making it difficult to fully document how organisms respond to them and predict the repercussions of similar events in the future.

Gender differences in the implementation of cardiovascular prevention measures after an acute coronary event

OpenAIRE

Dallongeville, Jean; De Bacquer, Dirk; Heidrich, Jan; De Backer, Gui; Prugger, Christoph; Kotseva, Kornelia; Montaye, Michèle; Amouyel, Philippe

2010-01-01

Objective To compare gender-related lifestyle changes and risk factor management after hospitalisation for a coronary event or revascularisation intervention in Europe. Method The EUROASPIRE III survey was carried out in 22 European countries in 2006-2007. Consecutive patients having had a coronary event or revascularisation before the age of 80 were identified. A total of 8966 patients (25.3% women) were interviewed and underwent clinical and biochemical tests at least 6 months after hosp...

Parents in the Migratory Space between Past, Present and Future

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Birgitte Romme

2018-01-01

on the future within the everyday sociocultural framework of the Danish welfare state. It is argued that they mostly comprehend and carry out their strivings for a better future by means of a narratively grounded, intergenerational rationale. This rationale invites them to assess the success of the family......’s entire act of migration in terms of what the future promises for their children. The article thus illuminates and crystallizes how among newly recognized refugee families mundane intergenerational dynamics form a crucial relational and temporal factor with regard to the parents’ building of existential...

30 CFR 56.16014 - Operator-carrying overhead cranes.

Science.gov (United States)