The end of cheap uranium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dittmar, Michael

2013-01-01

Historic data from many countries demonstrate that on average no more than 50–70% of the uranium in a deposit could be mined. An analysis of more recent data from Canada and Australia leads to a mining model with an average deposit extraction lifetime of 10 ± 2 years. This simple model provides an accurate description of the extractable amount of uranium for the recent mining operations. Using this model for all larger existing and planned uranium mines up to 2030, a global uranium mining peak of at most 58 ± 4 ktons around the year 2015 is obtained. Thereafter we predict that uranium mine production will decline to at most 54 ± 5 ktons by 2025 and, with the decline steepening, to at most 41 ± 5 ktons around 2030. This amount will not be sufficient to fuel the existing and planned nuclear power plants during the next 10–20 years. In fact, we find that it will be difficult to avoid supply shortages even under a slow 1%/year worldwide nuclear energy phase-out scenario up to 2025. We thus suggest that a worldwide nuclear energy phase-out is in order. If such a slow global phase-out is not voluntarily effected, the end of the present cheap uranium supply situation will be unavoidable. The result will be that some countries will simply be unable to afford sufficient uranium fuel at that point, which implies involuntary and perhaps chaotic nuclear phase-outs in those countries involving brownouts, blackouts, and worse

Stopping coal-fired electricity imports on smog days : a review of the OPA's proposed 250 MW demand response program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gibbons, J.

2006-01-01

This paper proposed an alternative to importing coal-fired electricity from the Ohio Valley on smog alert days in Ontario. It was suggested that the Ontario Power Authority (OPA) should pay large electricity consumers to shift some of their consumption from peak to off-peak hours. It was observed that demand response programs which pay consumers to shift demands to off-peak hours can provide multiple benefits to Ontario, including reduced air pollution on smog-alert days, a reduction in the spot price of electricity and reduced price volatility. In addition, demand response programs reduce the risk of blackouts and brownouts, as well as the need for new electricity generation and transmission infrastructure. It was noted that the Independent Electricity System Operator (IESO) and the OPA are planning to introduce demand response programs for the summer of 2006. However, the IESO's emergency load reduction program will be operated only during emergency situations to avoid the need for voltage reductions, while the OPA proposes to introduce a non-emergency demand response program which will be activated during most smog-alert days. Various amendments to the proposed program were suggested in this paper, including the establishment of price parity with coal-fired electricity imports; the provision of notification by 3 PM of the need for demand reductions the following day; no capping on the quantity of demand reductions that the OPA will purchase at a lower cost than electricity imports; and that the OPA's proposed Capacity Building Demand Response Program should proceed as quickly as possible without a pre-determined MW cap. 4 refs., 6 figs

Pulling the plug : how the Liberals' plan to dismantle BC Hydro threatens taxpayers, businesses, communities and jobs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veerkamp, M.

2002-06-01

The British Columbia government is planning to sell-off and deregulate the province's integrated, publicly-owned electric utilities despite election promises not to do so. The author argues that the consequences will be catastrophic with massive price increasing, rolling brownouts and service cuts. A recent poll indicates that 76 per cent of British Columbians oppose the decision to sell, 68 per cent do not support deregulation, and 83 per cent support a full public consultation before any changes are made. In response, the BC Citizens for Public Power Society was formed to give voice to British Columbians demand that their power system remain in public hands. This report presents a chronology of events for BC Hydro, and describes the experience of other jurisdictions with electricity deregulation. The BC Task Force on Energy Policy has released a report which claims that a fully competitive energy market will attract private capital and bring more energy supply, thereby lowering energy costs and increasing energy security. British Columbians condemn that report, arguing that it is too ideological and poorly substantiated. This paper discusses the impact that deregulation would have on the transmission system, the environment, and on local governments and small communities. It was noted that if the public electricity resources are removed from public ownership and control, the province's future options will be restricted under the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS). The BC Citizens for Public Power Society argues that the future power needs of the province are best met by public investment and energy conservation using BC Hydro. 65 refs

When does unreliable grid supply become unacceptable policy? Costs of power supply and outages in rural India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harish, Santosh M.; Morgan, Granger M.; Subrahmanian, Eswaran

2014-01-01

Despite frequent blackouts and brownouts, extension of the central grid remains the Indian government's preferred strategy for the country's rural electrification policy. This study reports an assessment that compares grid extension with distributed generation (DG) alternatives, based on the subsidies they will necessitate, and costs of service interruptions that are appropriate in the rural Indian context. Using cross-sectional household expenditure data and region fixed-effects models, average household demand is estimated. The price elasticity of demand is found to be in the range of −0.3 to −0.4. Interruption costs are estimated based on the loss of consumer surplus due to reduced consumption of electric lighting energy that results from intermittent power supply. Different grid reliability scenarios are simulated. Despite the inclusion of interruption costs, standalone DG does not appear to be competitive with grid extension at distances of less than 17 km. However, backing up unreliable grid service with local DG plants is attractive when reliability is very poor, even in previously electrified villages. Introduction of energy efficient lighting changes these economics, and the threshold for acceptable grid unreliability significantly reduces. A variety of polices to promote accelerated deployment and the wider adoption of improved end-use efficiency, warrant serious consideration. - Highlights: • We question the reliance on conventional grid in rural electricity supply in India. • Alternatives compared through government subsidies and consumer interruption costs. • Interruption costs are estimated based on loss of consumer surplus due to outages. • Augmenting unreliable grid with local biomass or diesel based backups preferable. • With efficient lighting, standalone biomass plants are optimal at very low distances

Climate and Water Vulnerability of the US Electricity Grid Under High Penetrations of Renewable Energy

Science.gov (United States)

Macknick, J.; Miara, A.; O'Connell, M.; Vorosmarty, C. J.; Newmark, R. L.

2017-12-01

The US power sector is highly dependent upon water resources for reliable operations, primarily for thermoelectric cooling and hydropower technologies. Changes in the availability and temperature of water resources can limit electricity generation and cause outages at power plants, which substantially affect grid-level operational decisions. While the effects of water variability and climate changes on individual power plants are well documented, prior studies have not identified the significance of these impacts at the regional systems-level at which the grid operates, including whether there are risks for large-scale blackouts, brownouts, or increases in production costs. Adequately assessing electric grid system-level impacts requires detailed power sector modeling tools that can incorporate electric transmission infrastructure, capacity reserves, and other grid characteristics. Here, we present for the first time, a study of how climate and water variability affect operations of the power sector, considering different electricity sector configurations (low vs. high renewable) and environmental regulations. We use a case study of the US Eastern Interconnection, building off the Eastern Renewable Generation Integration Study (ERGIS) that explored operational challenges of high penetrations of renewable energy on the grid. We evaluate climate-water constraints on individual power plants, using the Thermoelectric Power and Thermal Pollution (TP2M) model coupled with the PLEXOS electricity production cost model, in the context of broader electricity grid operations. Using a five minute time step for future years, we analyze scenarios of 10% to 30% renewable energy penetration along with considerations of river temperature regulations to compare the cost, performance, and reliability tradeoffs of water-dependent thermoelectric generation and variable renewable energy technologies under climate stresses. This work provides novel insights into the resilience and

Automated Demand Response Approaches to Household Energy Management in a Smart Grid Environment

Science.gov (United States)

Adika, Christopher Otieno

The advancement of renewable energy technologies and the deregulation of the electricity market have seen the emergence of Demand response (DR) programs. Demand response is a cost-effective load management strategy which enables the electricity suppliers to maintain the integrity of the power grid during high peak periods, when the customers' electrical load is high. DR programs are designed to influence electricity users to alter their normal consumption patterns by offering them financial incentives. A well designed incentive-based DR scheme that offer competitive electricity pricing structure can result in numerous benefits to all the players in the electricity market. Lower power consumption during peak periods will significantly enhance the robustness of constrained networks by reducing the level of power of generation and transmission infrastructure needed to provide electric service. Therefore, this will ease the pressure of building new power networks as we avoiding costly energy procurements thereby translating into huge financial savings for the power suppliers. Peak load reduction will also reduce the inconveniences suffered by end users as a result of brownouts or blackouts. Demand response will also drastically lower the price peaks associated with wholesale markets. This will in turn reduce the electricity costs and risks for all the players in the energy market. Additionally, DR is environmentally friendly since it enhances the flexibility of the power grid through accommodation of renewable energy resources. Despite its many benefits, DR has not been embraced by most electricity networks. This can be attributed to the fact that the existing programs do not provide enough incentives to the end users and, therefore, most electricity users are not willing to participate in them. To overcome these challenges, most utilities are coming up with innovative strategies that will be more attractive to their customers. Thus, this dissertation presents various

The marginalization of "small is beautiful": Micro-hydroelectricity, common property, and the politics of rural electricity provision in Thailand

Science.gov (United States)

Greacen, Christopher Edmund

This study analyzes forces that constrain sustainable deployment of cost-effective renewable energy in a developing country. By many economic and social measures, community micro-hydro is a superior electrification option for remote mountainous communities in Thailand. Yet despite a 20 year government program, only 59 projects were built and of these less than half remain operating. By comparison, the national grid has extended to over 69,000 villages. Based on microeconomic, engineering, social barriers, common pool resource, and political economic theories, this study investigates first, why so few micro-hydro projects were built, and second, why so few remain operating. Drawing on historical information, site visits, interviews, surveys, and data logging, this study shows that the marginal status of micro-hydro arises from multiple linked factors spanning from village experiences to geopolitical concerns. The dominance of the parastatal rural electrification utility, the PEA, and its singular focus on grid extension are crucial in explaining why so few projects were built. Buffered from financial consequences by domestic and international subsidies, grid expansion proceeded without consideration of alternatives. High costs borne by villagers for micro-hydro discouraged village choice. PEA remains catalytic in explaining why few systems remain operating: grid expansion plans favor villages with existing loads and most villages abandon micro-hydro generators when the grid arrives. Village experiences are fundamental: most projects suffer blackouts, brownouts, and equipment failures due to poor equipment and collective over-consumption. Over-consumption is linked to mismatch between tariffs and generator technical characteristics. Opportunities to resolve problems languished as limited state support focused on building projects and immediate repairs rather than fundamentals. Despite frustrations, many remain proud of "their power plant". Interconnecting and selling

Third Generation Flywheels for electric storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ricci, Michael, R.; Fiske, O. James

2008-02-29

frequency regulation, where Power Rings could cut costs, reduce fuel consumption, eliminate emissions, and reduce the need for new power plants. Other applications include hybrid diesel-electric locomotives, grid power quality, support for renewable energy, spinning reserve, energy management, and facility deferral. Decreased need for new generation and transmission alone could save the nation $2.5 billion per year. Improved grid reliability could cut economic losses due to poor power quality by tens of billions of dollars per year. A large export market for this technology could also develop. Power Ring technology will directly support the EERE mission, and the goals of the Distributed Energy Technologies Subprogram in particular, by helping to reduce blackouts, brownouts, electricity costs, and emissions, by relieving transmission bottlenecks, and by greatly improving grid power quality.

Basic Research Needs for Superconductivity. Report of the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Superconductivity, May 8-11, 2006

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sarrao, J.; Kwok, W-K; Bozovic, I.; Mazin, I.; Seamus, J. C.; Civale, L.; Christen, D.; Horwitz, J.; Kellogg, G.; Finnemore, D.; Crabtree, G.; Welp, U.; Ashton, C.; Herndon, B.; Shapard, L.; Nault, R. M.

2006-05-11

As an energy carrier, electricity has no rival with regard to its environmental cleanliness, flexibility in interfacing with multiple production sources and end uses, and efficiency of delivery. In fact, the electric power grid was named ?the greatest engineering achievement of the 20th century? by the National Academy of Engineering. This grid, a technological marvel ingeniously knitted together from local networks growing out from cities and rural centers, may be the biggest and most complex artificial system ever built. However, the growing demand for electricity will soon challenge the grid beyond its capability, compromising its reliability through voltage fluctuations that crash digital electronics, brownouts that disable industrial processes and harm electrical equipment, and power failures like the North American blackout in 2003 and subsequent blackouts in London, Scandinavia, and Italy in the same year. The North American blackout affected 50 million people and caused approximately $6 billion in economic damage over the four days of its duration. Superconductivity offers powerful new opportunities for restoring the reliability of the power grid and increasing its capacity and efficiency. Superconductors are capable of carrying current without loss, making the parts of the grid they replace dramatically more efficient. Superconducting wires carry up to five times the current carried by copper wires that have the same cross section, thereby providing ample capacity for future expansion while requiring no increase in the number of overhead access lines or underground conduits. Their use is especially attractive in urban areas, where replacing copper with superconductors in power-saturated underground conduits avoids expensive new underground construction. Superconducting transformers cut the volume, weight, and losses of conventional transformers by a factor of two and do not require the contaminating and flammable transformer oils that violate urban safety

Basic Research Needs for Superconductivity. Report of the Basic Energy Sciences Workshop on Superconductivity, May 8-11, 2006

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sarrao, J.; Kwok, W-K; Bozovic, I.; Mazin, I.; Seamus, J. C.; Civale, L.; Christen, D.; Horwitz, J.; Kellogg, G.; Finnemore, D.; Crabtree, G.; Welp, U.; Ashton, C.; Herndon, B.; Shapard, L.; Nault, R. M.

2006-01-01

As an energy carrier, electricity has no rival with regard to its environmental cleanliness, flexibility in interfacing with multiple production sources and end uses, and efficiency of delivery. In fact, the electric power grid was named ?the greatest engineering achievement of the 20th century? by the National Academy of Engineering. This grid, a technological marvel ingeniously knitted together from local networks growing out from cities and rural centers, may be the biggest and most complex artificial system ever built. However, the growing demand for electricity will soon challenge the grid beyond its capability, compromising its reliability through voltage fluctuations that crash digital electronics, brownouts that disable industrial processes and harm electrical equipment, and power failures like the North American blackout in 2003 and subsequent blackouts in London, Scandinavia, and Italy in the same year. The North American blackout affected 50 million people and caused approximately $6 billion in economic damage over the four days of its duration. Superconductivity offers powerful new opportunities for restoring the reliability of the power grid and increasing its capacity and efficiency. Superconductors are capable of carrying current without loss, making the parts of the grid they replace dramatically more efficient. Superconducting wires carry up to five times the current carried by copper wires that have the same cross section, thereby providing ample capacity for future expansion while requiring no increase in the number of overhead access lines or underground conduits. Their use is especially attractive in urban areas, where replacing copper with superconductors in power-saturated underground conduits avoids expensive new underground construction. Superconducting transformers cut the volume, weight, and losses of conventional transformers by a factor of two and do not require the contaminating and flammable transformer oils that violate urban safety

The Hydrogen Economy Making the Transition to the Third Industrial Revolution and a New Energy Era

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jeremy Rifkin

2006-01-01

out and produces no harmful CO 2 emissions. Commercial fuel-cells powered by hydrogen are just now being introduced into the market for home, office and industrial use. Hitachi, Toshiba, and other companies will be introducing the first hydrogen fuel cell cartridges into retail stores around the world in 2007. The small hydrogen powered micro fuel cells will replace traditional batteries and provide mobile power for lap-top computers, cell phones, PDA's, Mp3 players, camcorders, portable DVD players, hand- held computers, video games, and digital cameras. With this new energy source, computers can be powered for days at a time, where existing battery technology lasts only a few hours before needing to be plugged back into the wall socket to be recharged. Similarly, manufacturing and service-related companies are just beginning to introduce stationary fuel cell power plants to provide back-up generation during periods of peak load or when the price of electricity on the grid becomes too expensive, or when the grid cannot keep up with demand surges, resulting in rolling brownout and blackouts. Indeed, when the massive 2002 power blackout shut down large parts of the Northeast and Midwestern part of the US and the New York City skyline went black, a newly erected skyscraper in Times Square remained fully lit and powered up because a stationary fuel cell power plant had been built into its infrastructure. The German company, Linde AG, recently introduced a hydrogen fuel cell power plant at the Munich airport. The hydrogen economy makes possible a broad redistribution of power, with far-reaching beneficial consequences for society. In the new era, businesses, municipalities and homeowners could become the producers as well as the consumers of their own energy so-called 'distributed generation'. Even the automobile itself is a 'power station on wheels' with a generating capacity of twenty kilowatts. Since the average car is parked most of the time, it can be plugged in

The Hydrogen Economy Making the Transition to the Third Industrial Revolution and a New Energy Era

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jeremy Rifkin

2006-07-01

;forever fuel'. It never runs out and produces no harmful CO{sub 2} emissions. Commercial fuel-cells powered by hydrogen are just now being introduced into the market for home, office and industrial use. Hitachi, Toshiba, and other companies will be introducing the first hydrogen fuel cell cartridges into retail stores around the world in 2007. The small hydrogen powered micro fuel cells will replace traditional batteries and provide mobile power for lap-top computers, cell phones, PDA's, Mp3 players, camcorders, portable DVD players, hand- held computers, video games, and digital cameras. With this new energy source, computers can be powered for days at a time, where existing battery technology lasts only a few hours before needing to be plugged back into the wall socket to be recharged. Similarly, manufacturing and service-related companies are just beginning to introduce stationary fuel cell power plants to provide back-up generation during periods of peak load or when the price of electricity on the grid becomes too expensive, or when the grid cannot keep up with demand surges, resulting in rolling brownout and blackouts. Indeed, when the massive 2002 power blackout shut down large parts of the Northeast and Midwestern part of the US and the New York City skyline went black, a newly erected skyscraper in Times Square remained fully lit and powered up because a stationary fuel cell power plant had been built into its infrastructure. The German company, Linde AG, recently introduced a hydrogen fuel cell power plant at the Munich airport. The hydrogen economy makes possible a broad redistribution of power, with far-reaching beneficial consequences for society. In the new era, businesses, municipalities and homeowners could become the producers as well as the consumers of their own energy so-called 'distributed generation'. Even the automobile itself is a 'power station on wheels' with a generating capacity of twenty kilowatts. Since the average