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Sample records for box jenkins forecasting

  1. Gold sales forecasting: The Box-Jenkins methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Johannes Tshepiso Tsoku

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The study employs the Box-Jenkins Methodology to forecast South African gold sales. For a resource economy like South Africa where metals and minerals account for a high proportion of GDP and export earnings, the decline in gold sales is very disturbing. Box-Jenkins time series technique was used to perform time series analysis of monthly gold sales for the period January 2000 to June 2013 with the following steps: model identification, model estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. Furthermore, the prediction accuracy is tested using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE. From the analysis, a seasonal ARIMA(4,1,4×(0,1,112 was found to be the “best fit model” with an MAPE value of 11% indicating that the model is fit to be used to predict or forecast future gold sales for South Africa. In addition, the forecast values show that there will be a decrease in the overall gold sales for the first six months of 2014. It is hoped that the study will help the public and private sectors to understand the gold sales or output scenario and later plan the gold mining activities in South Africa. Furthermore, it is hoped that this research paper has demonstrated the significance of Box-Jenkins technique for this area of research and that they will be applied in the future.

  2. Preliminary analysis on hybrid Box-Jenkins - GARCH modeling in forecasting gold price

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaziz, Siti Roslindar; Azizan, Noor Azlinna; Ahmad, Maizah Hura; Zakaria, Roslinazairimah; Agrawal, Manju; Boland, John

    2015-02-01

    Gold has been regarded as a valuable precious metal and the most popular commodity as a healthy return investment. Hence, the analysis and prediction of gold price become very significant to investors. This study is a preliminary analysis on gold price and its volatility that focuses on the performance of hybrid Box-Jenkins models together with GARCH in analyzing and forecasting gold price. The Box-Cox formula is used as the data transformation method due to its potential best practice in normalizing data, stabilizing variance and reduces heteroscedasticity using 41-year daily gold price data series starting 2nd January 1973. Our study indicates that the proposed hybrid model ARIMA-GARCH with t-innovation can be a new potential approach in forecasting gold price. This finding proves the strength of GARCH in handling volatility in the gold price as well as overcomes the non-linear limitation in the Box-Jenkins modeling.

  3. Alteration of Box-Jenkins methodology by implementing genetic algorithm method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ismail, Zuhaimy; Maarof, Mohd Zulariffin Md; Fadzli, Mohammad

    2015-02-01

    A time series is a set of values sequentially observed through time. The Box-Jenkins methodology is a systematic method of identifying, fitting, checking and using integrated autoregressive moving average time series model for forecasting. Box-Jenkins method is an appropriate for a medium to a long length (at least 50) time series data observation. When modeling a medium to a long length (at least 50), the difficulty arose in choosing the accurate order of model identification level and to discover the right parameter estimation. This presents the development of Genetic Algorithm heuristic method in solving the identification and estimation models problems in Box-Jenkins. Data on International Tourist arrivals to Malaysia were used to illustrate the effectiveness of this proposed method. The forecast results that generated from this proposed model outperformed single traditional Box-Jenkins model.

  4. Previsão de demanda: uma aplicação dos modelos Box-Jenkins na área de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais Demand forecasting: an application of the Box-Jenkins models in the technical assistance of personal computer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Liane Werner

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de demanda é uma atividade importante para auxiliar na determinação dos recursos necessários para a empresa. Neste artigo, a metodologia de Box-Jenkins foi utilizada para analisar dados históricos de uma empresa de assistência técnica de computadores pessoais e obter previsões do número de atendimentos. A empresa estudada apresenta três tipos de clientes diferenciados: contratos, garantia e avulsos. Como cada segmento de clientes tem suas peculiaridades, a previsão de demanda foi direcionada a cada tipo, buscando representar o comportamento de tendência e a sazonalidade por meio dos modelos de Box-Jenkins. A obtenção dos modelos mais adequados foi baseada na análise de gráficos e em testes estatísticos próprios da metodologia, os quais subsidiaram a decisão de adotar o modelo AR(1 para prever o número de atendimentos dos clientes tipo contrato, o modelo ARIMA(2,1,0 para os clientes tipo garantia e um modelo sazonal SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 para os clientes tipo avulsos.Demand forecasting is an important tool to aid on the determination of necessary resources of a given company. In this paper, the Box-Jenkins methodology was applied to analyze historical data of a personal computer repair company and provide a forecast for the number of service calls. The company studied presents three segments of clients: contracts, warranty, and on-call. As each client has it own characteristics, in order to better represent tendency and seasonality behavior through the Box-Jenkins models, a specific forecasting model was developed for each segment. The choice of the optimum models were based into graphic analysis and statistical tests, which lead to the decision of adopting the AR(1 model to foresee the number of contract clients, the ARIMA(2,1,0 model for warranty clients and the SARIMA(0,1,0(0,1,112 seasonal model for on-call clients.

  5. Autocorrelated process control: Geometric Brownian Motion approach versus Box-Jenkins approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salleh, R. M.; Zawawi, N. I.; Gan, Z. F.; Nor, M. E.

    2018-04-01

    Existing of autocorrelation will bring a significant effect on the performance and accuracy of process control if the problem does not handle carefully. When dealing with autocorrelated process, Box-Jenkins method will be preferred because of the popularity. However, the computation of Box-Jenkins method is too complicated and challenging which cause of time-consuming. Therefore, an alternative method which known as Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) is introduced to monitor the autocorrelated process. One real case of furnace temperature data is conducted to compare the performance of Box-Jenkins and GBM methods in monitoring autocorrelation process. Both methods give the same results in terms of model accuracy and monitoring process control. Yet, GBM is superior compared to Box-Jenkins method due to its simplicity and practically with shorter computational time.

  6. Analysis Monthly Import of Palm Oil Products Using Box-Jenkins Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, Nurul F. Y.; Khalid, Kamil; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ghazali Kamardan, M.; Roslan, Rozaini; Che-Him, Norziha

    2018-04-01

    The palm oil industry has been an important component of the national economy especially the agriculture sector. The aim of this study is to identify the pattern of import of palm oil products, to model the time series using Box-Jenkins model and to forecast the monthly import of palm oil products. The method approach is included in the statistical test for verifying the equivalence model and statistical measurement of three models, namely Autoregressive (AR) model, Moving Average (MA) model and Autoregressive Moving Average (ARMA) model. The model identification of all product import palm oil is different in which the AR(1) was found to be the best model for product import palm oil while MA(3) was found to be the best model for products import palm kernel oil. For the palm kernel, MA(4) was found to be the best model. The results forecast for the next four months for products import palm oil, palm kernel oil and palm kernel showed the most significant decrease compared to the actual data.

  7. BOX & JENKINS METHODOLOGY: AN APLICATION IN RAW MILK DATA FROM THE STATE OF MINAS GERAIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Campana Barbosa

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The Box & Jenkins methodology was used to obtain a statistical model for estimate the production in liters of milk of the 6 first months of 2013 in Minas Gerais state, adjusting SARIMA (p, d, q x (P, D, Qs models, where d and D are the number of differences to remove the trend and seasonality of time series, p and q are the order of the autoregressive and moving average operators, P and Q are the order of the autoregressive and moving average seasonal operators and s is the seasonal periodicity. The Akaike Criterion Information (AIC procedure was used to select the 6 most parsimonious models and to find the best one the error indicators Mean Squared Error (EQM and Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE were analyzed, in addition to the assumptions of residues white noise. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average SARIMA (3,1,2 x (0,1,212 was upper, view of the principle of parsimony and with more precise estimates. The forecast was more adjusted to the real values of milk production in Minas Gerais state and the model had smaller error indicators. The residues estimated were by this model white noise.

  8. Forecasting with Dynamic Regression Models

    CERN Document Server

    Pankratz, Alan

    2012-01-01

    One of the most widely used tools in statistical forecasting, single equation regression models is examined here. A companion to the author's earlier work, Forecasting with Univariate Box-Jenkins Models: Concepts and Cases, the present text pulls together recent time series ideas and gives special attention to possible intertemporal patterns, distributed lag responses of output to input series and the auto correlation patterns of regression disturbance. It also includes six case studies.

  9. Box-Jenkins analysis for shark landings in Costa Rica

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger Bonilla

    2004-12-01

    Full Text Available Sharks are highly vulnerable to intense and prolonged fishery extraction. This article analyzes the data on shark landings from the artisan fishing fleet on Costa Rica’s Pacific coast between 1988 and 1997. The data come from an invoicing system administered by the Costa Rican Fisheries Institute (Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca y Acuacultura, INCOPESCA. Pacific coast shark fishing during the period under study represented approximately 20% of the total national fisheries volume. According to data from the invoicing system, the Northern Pacific region was the most productive, reporting 58% of the shark catch nationwide. Within this region, shark fishing in Papagayo Gulf represented 91% and 53% of the landings by fishery region and nationwide, respectively. The mid-sized and advanced (length of boat > 10 meters artisan fishing fleets reported 96% of the shark catches in the zone. The study of shark fisheries in the Papagayo Gulf zone is crucial for an understanding of fishery dynamics for this resource at the national level. A monthly chronological series was constructed with the landings in the Papagayo Gulf zone, and a Univariate Box-Jenkins (UBJ Model was estimated for first-order moving averages MA(1 with a seasonal component of the Yt = lambda a t + gamma S12 + a t typeEn este trabajo, se analizaron los datos de desembarque de tiburón de la flota pesquera artesanal en el Pacífico costarricense entre 1988 y 1997. Los datos provienen de un sistema de facturas administrado por el Instituto Costarricense de la Pesca (INCOPESCA. En el Pacífico, la pesca de tiburón en el período de estudio representó aproximadamente el 20% del volumen total de pesca a nivel nacional. De acuerdo con los datos del sistema de facturas, la región del Pacífico Norte fue la más productiva, reportando un 58% de los desembarques de tiburón a nivel nacional. En esta región, la pesca de tiburón en la zona del Golfo de Papagayo reportó 91% y 53% de los

  10. Forecasting hotspots in East Kutai, Kutai Kartanegara, and West Kutai as early warning information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahyuningsih, S.; Goejantoro, R.; Rizki, N. A.

    2018-04-01

    The aims of this research are to model hotspots and forecast hotspot 2017 in East Kutai, Kutai Kartanegara and West Kutai. The methods which used in this research were Holt exponential smoothing, Holt’s additive dump trend method, Holt-Winters’ additive method, additive decomposition method, multiplicative decomposition method, Loess decomposition method and Box-Jenkins method. For smoothing techniques, additive decomposition is better than Holt’s exponential smoothing. The hotspots model using Box-Jenkins method were Autoregressive Moving Average ARIMA(1,1,0), ARIMA(0,2,1), and ARIMA(0,1,0). Comparing the results from all methods which were used in this research, and based on Root of Mean Squared Error (RMSE), show that Loess decomposition method is the best times series model, because it has the least RMSE. Thus the Loess decomposition model used to forecast the number of hotspot. The forecasting result indicatethat hotspots pattern tend to increase at the end of 2017 in Kutai Kartanegara and West Kutai, but stationary in East Kutai.

  11. Forecasting Natural Rubber Price In Malaysia Using Arima

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahari, Fatin Z.; Khalid, Kamil; Roslan, Rozaini; Sufahani, Suliadi; Mohamad, Mahathir; Saifullah Rusiman, Mohd; Ali, Maselan

    2018-04-01

    This paper contains introduction, materials and methods, results and discussions, conclusions and references. Based on the title mentioned, high volatility of the price of natural rubber nowadays will give the significant risk to the producers, traders, consumers, and others parties involved in the production of natural rubber. To help them in making decisions, forecasting is needed to predict the price of natural rubber. The main objective of the research is to forecast the upcoming price of natural rubber by using the reliable statistical method. The data are gathered from Malaysia Rubber Board which the data are from January 2000 until December 2015. In this research, average monthly price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 (SMR20) will be forecast by using Box-Jenkins approach. Time series plot is used to determine the pattern of the data. The data have trend pattern which indicates the data is non-stationary data and the data need to be transformed. By using the Box-Jenkins method, the best fit model for the time series data is ARIMA (1, 1, 0) which this model satisfy all the criteria needed. Hence, ARIMA (1, 1, 0) is the best fitted model and the model will be used to forecast the average monthly price of Standard Malaysia Rubber 20 (SMR20) for twelve months ahead.

  12. A Hybrid Approach on Tourism Demand Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, M. E.; Nurul, A. I. M.; Rusiman, M. S.

    2018-04-01

    Tourism has become one of the important industries that contributes to the country’s economy. Tourism demand forecasting gives valuable information to policy makers, decision makers and organizations related to tourism industry in order to make crucial decision and planning. However, it is challenging to produce an accurate forecast since economic data such as the tourism data is affected by social, economic and environmental factors. In this study, an equally-weighted hybrid method, which is a combination of Box-Jenkins and Artificial Neural Networks, was applied to forecast Malaysia’s tourism demand. The forecasting performance was assessed by taking the each individual method as a benchmark. The results showed that this hybrid approach outperformed the other two models

  13. Jenkins essentials

    CERN Document Server

    Soni, Mitesh

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Jenkins novice or beginner with a basic understanding of continuous integration, then this is the book for you. Beginners in Jenkins will get quick hands-on experience and gain the confidence to go ahead and explore the use of Jenkins further.

  14. Forecasting daily meteorological time series using ARIMA and regression models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murat, Małgorzata; Malinowska, Iwona; Gos, Magdalena; Krzyszczak, Jaromir

    2018-04-01

    The daily air temperature and precipitation time series recorded between January 1, 1980 and December 31, 2010 in four European sites (Jokioinen, Dikopshof, Lleida and Lublin) from different climatic zones were modeled and forecasted. In our forecasting we used the methods of the Box-Jenkins and Holt- Winters seasonal auto regressive integrated moving-average, the autoregressive integrated moving-average with external regressors in the form of Fourier terms and the time series regression, including trend and seasonality components methodology with R software. It was demonstrated that obtained models are able to capture the dynamics of the time series data and to produce sensible forecasts.

  15. Forecasting Fire Insurance Loss Ratio in Misr Insurance Company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tarek TAHA

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Loss ratio is one of the most important indicator that has many strategic decisions applications, such as pricing, underwriting, investment, reinsurance and reserving decisions. It serves as an early warning of financial solvency of insurance companies and it can be judged on the strength of the financial position of these companies. The aim of this study is to identify the reliable time series-forecasting model to forecast loss ratio estimates of fire segment in Misr insurance company. Box-Jenkins Analysis is applied on actual reported loss ratios data for Misr insurance company for the period 1980/1981– 2013/2014. The study concludes that the best forecasting model is ARMA(1,1.

  16. Selection of the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter for modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility

    OpenAIRE

    Shang, Han Lin

    2015-01-01

    The Box-Cox transformation can sometimes yield noticeable improvements in model simplicity, variance homogeneity and precision of estimation, such as in modelling and forecasting age-specific fertility. Despite its importance, there have been few studies focusing on the optimal selection of Box-Cox transformation parameters in demographic forecasting. A simple method is proposed for selecting the optimal Box-Cox transformation parameter, along with an algorithm based on an in-sample forecast ...

  17. Network Bandwidth Utilization Forecast Model on High Bandwidth Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wucherl; Sim, Alex

    2014-07-07

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2percent. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  18. Network bandwidth utilization forecast model on high bandwidth networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yoo, Wuchert (William) [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sim, Alex [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2015-03-30

    With the increasing number of geographically distributed scientific collaborations and the scale of the data size growth, it has become more challenging for users to achieve the best possible network performance on a shared network. We have developed a forecast model to predict expected bandwidth utilization for high-bandwidth wide area network. The forecast model can improve the efficiency of resource utilization and scheduling data movements on high-bandwidth network to accommodate ever increasing data volume for large-scale scientific data applications. Univariate model is developed with STL and ARIMA on SNMP path utilization data. Compared with traditional approach such as Box-Jenkins methodology, our forecast model reduces computation time by 83.2%. It also shows resilience against abrupt network usage change. The accuracy of the forecast model is within the standard deviation of the monitored measurements.

  19. Jenkins The Definitive Guide

    CERN Document Server

    Smart, John

    2011-01-01

    Streamline software development with Jenkins, the popular Java-based open source tool that has revolutionized the way teams think about Continuous Integration (CI). This complete guide shows you how to automate your build, integration, release, and deployment processes with Jenkins-and demonstrates how CI can save you time, money, and many headaches. Ideal for developers, software architects, and project managers, Jenkins: The Definitive Guide is both a CI tutorial and a comprehensive Jenkins reference. Through its wealth of best practices and real-world tips, you'll discover how easy it is

  20. Interview with Henry Jenkins

    OpenAIRE

    TWC Editor

    2008-01-01

    An interview with Henry Jenkins focussing on Transformative Works and Cultures (TWC), the Organization for Transformative Works (OTW), and Jenkins' academic research into fan and participatory cultures.

  1. Interview with Henry Jenkins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TWC Editor

    2008-09-01

    Full Text Available An interview with Henry Jenkins focussing on Transformative Works and Cultures (TWC, the Organization for Transformative Works (OTW, and Jenkins' academic research into fan and participatory cultures.

  2. Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joachimi, B.; Taylor, A. N.

    2011-09-01

    Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter constraints by future weak gravitational lensing surveys. The characteristic non-linear degeneracy between matter density parameter and normalization of matter density fluctuations is reproduced for several cases, and the capabilities of breaking this degeneracy by weak-lensing three-point statistics is investigated. Possible applications of Box-Cox transformations of posterior distributions are discussed, including the prospects for performing statistical data analysis steps in the transformed Gaussianized parameter space.

  3. Multivariate methods and forecasting with IBM SPSS statistics

    CERN Document Server

    Aljandali, Abdulkader

    2017-01-01

    This is the second of a two-part guide to quantitative analysis using the IBM SPSS Statistics software package; this volume focuses on multivariate statistical methods and advanced forecasting techniques. More often than not, regression models involve more than one independent variable. For example, forecasting methods are commonly applied to aggregates such as inflation rates, unemployment, exchange rates, etc., that have complex relationships with determining variables. This book introduces multivariate regression models and provides examples to help understand theory underpinning the model. The book presents the fundamentals of multivariate regression and then moves on to examine several related techniques that have application in business-orientated fields such as logistic and multinomial regression. Forecasting tools such as the Box-Jenkins approach to time series modeling are introduced, as well as exponential smoothing and naïve techniques. This part also covers hot topics such as Factor Analysis, Dis...

  4. Forecasting of time series with trend and seasonal cycle using the airline model and artificial neural networks Pronóstico de series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclo estacional usando el modelo airline y redes neuronales artificiales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J D Velásquez

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Many time series with trend and seasonal pattern are successfully modeled and forecasted by the airline model of Box and Jenkins; however, this model neglects the presence of nonlinearity on data. In this paper, we propose a new nonlinear version of the airline model; for this, we replace the moving average linear component by a multilayer perceptron neural network. The proposedmodel is used for forecasting two benchmark time series; we found that theproposed model is able to forecast the time series with more accuracy that other traditional approaches.Muchas series de tiempo con tendencia y ciclos estacionales son exitosamente modeladas y pronosticadas usando el modelo airline de Box y Jenkins; sin embargo, la presencia de no linealidades en los datos son despreciadas por este modelo. En este artículo, se propone una nueva versión no lineal del modelo airline; para esto, se reemplaza la componente lineal de promedios móviles por un perceptrón multicapa. El modelo propuesto es usado para pronosticar dos series de tiempo benchmark; se encontró que el modelo propuesto es capaz de pronosticar las series de tiempo con mayor precisión que otras aproximaciones tradicionales.

  5. Modeling and forecasting rainfall patterns of southwest monsoons in North-East India as a SARIMA process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narasimha Murthy, K. V.; Saravana, R.; Vijaya Kumar, K.

    2018-02-01

    Weather forecasting is an important issue in the field of meteorology all over the world. The pattern and amount of rainfall are the essential factors that affect agricultural systems. India experiences the precious Southwest monsoon season for four months from June to September. The present paper describes an empirical study for modeling and forecasting the time series of Southwest monsoon rainfall patterns in the North-East India. The Box-Jenkins Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) methodology has been adopted for model identification, diagnostic checking and forecasting for this region. The study has shown that the SARIMA (0, 1, 1) (1, 0, 1)4 model is appropriate for analyzing and forecasting the future rainfall patterns. The Analysis of Means (ANOM) is a useful alternative to the analysis of variance (ANOVA) for comparing the group of treatments to study the variations and critical comparisons of rainfall patterns in different months of the season.

  6. Análisis de la serie de precios del trigo mediante la metodología box-jenkins , y su cointegración con las series de precios de productos derivados

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hanns de la Fuente Mella

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available El siguiente estudio presenta un análisis de series temporales de los precios reales del trigo en Chile, para el período comprendido entre el mes de enero de 1990 y enero de 2007, utilizando la metodología Box-Jenkins. Además, se presenta un análisis de cointegración entre los precios reales del trigo y algunos de sus derivados como el Pan, la Harina y los Tallarines. La muestra fue ajustada con un modelo ARIMA (2,1,1, mostrando algunos inconvenientes en una de las hipótesis que el procedimiento necesita confirmar, lo que fue solucionado aplicando la "Ley de Los Grandes Números", es decir, utilizando el teorema del límite central. Respecto de la cointegración, nuestro supuesto de la existencia de ésta fue validado mediante el test de Phillips-Perron para raíces unitarias, demostrando cuantitativamente la existencia de cointegración entre los precios del trigo y sus derivados en estudio.Además, se valida la hipótesis de estacionalidad de los precios del trigo para los meses de Noviembre, Diciembre y Enero debido a la escasez del producto en dichos períodos.Finalmente, la presencia de cointegración demostrada sirve de incentivo para que futuros investigadores puedan utilizar estos resultados, con el objeto de realizar pronósticos para el precio del trigo y sus derivados, pensando en la existencia de un equilibrio estable entre las variables. The following study presents a serial temporal analysis of the real prices of Wheat in Chili, for the period between, January, 1990 and January 2007 , using the Box- Jenkins methodology. Besides,we present an analysis of cointegration between the real prices of Wheat and sorne of his derivates products like bread, Flour and noodles. We suppose cointegration that was confirmed with the Phillip-Perron test. The sample of data was fitted whit a model ARIMA (2,1,1 showing sorne troubles in one of the hypothes1s that the procedure need to confirm.That was solved by applying de "Big Numbers Law

  7. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Taegu; Hong, Jungsik; Kang, Pilsung

    2017-01-01

    Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM) effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS) are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA), based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

  8. Box Office Forecasting considering Competitive Environment and Word-of-Mouth in Social Networks: A Case Study of Korean Film Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taegu Kim

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate box office forecasting models are developed by considering competition and word-of-mouth (WOM effects in addition to screening-related information. Nationality, genre, ratings, and distributors of motion pictures running concurrently with the target motion picture are used to describe the competition, whereas the numbers of informative, positive, and negative mentions posted on social network services (SNS are used to gauge the atmosphere spread by WOM. Among these candidate variables, only significant variables are selected by genetic algorithm (GA, based on which machine learning algorithms are trained to build forecasting models. The forecasts are combined to improve forecasting performance. Experimental results on the Korean film market show that the forecasting accuracy in early screening periods can be significantly improved by considering competition. In addition, WOM has a stronger influence on total box office forecasting. Considering both competition and WOM improves forecasting performance to a larger extent than when only one of them is considered.

  9. Influenza forecasting with Google Flu Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugas, Andrea Freyer; Jalalpour, Mehdi; Gel, Yulia; Levin, Scott; Torcaso, Fred; Igusa, Takeru; Rothman, Richard E

    2013-01-01

    We developed a practical influenza forecast model based on real-time, geographically focused, and easy to access data, designed to provide individual medical centers with advanced warning of the expected number of influenza cases, thus allowing for sufficient time to implement interventions. Secondly, we evaluated the effects of incorporating a real-time influenza surveillance system, Google Flu Trends, and meteorological and temporal information on forecast accuracy. Forecast models designed to predict one week in advance were developed from weekly counts of confirmed influenza cases over seven seasons (2004-2011) divided into seven training and out-of-sample verification sets. Forecasting procedures using classical Box-Jenkins, generalized linear models (GLM), and generalized linear autoregressive moving average (GARMA) methods were employed to develop the final model and assess the relative contribution of external variables such as, Google Flu Trends, meteorological data, and temporal information. A GARMA(3,0) forecast model with Negative Binomial distribution integrating Google Flu Trends information provided the most accurate influenza case predictions. The model, on the average, predicts weekly influenza cases during 7 out-of-sample outbreaks within 7 cases for 83% of estimates. Google Flu Trend data was the only source of external information to provide statistically significant forecast improvements over the base model in four of the seven out-of-sample verification sets. Overall, the p-value of adding this external information to the model is 0.0005. The other exogenous variables did not yield a statistically significant improvement in any of the verification sets. Integer-valued autoregression of influenza cases provides a strong base forecast model, which is enhanced by the addition of Google Flu Trends confirming the predictive capabilities of search query based syndromic surveillance. This accessible and flexible forecast model can be used by

  10. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this BoxJenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  11. Estimation and Forecasting the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador: a Short-term Vision

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yadier Alberto Torres−Sánchez

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Ecuador is the seventh largest economy in Latin America. From 2000 to 2012, the country has been expanding at an average rate of 1,15 % on a quarter over quarter basis, mostly due to a rise in exports. Ecuador´s economy is highly dependent on oil exports. In order to reach its full growth potential, the country needs to reduce its dependence on oil revenue; increase the tax base; achieve political stability and reduce the levels of poverty and inequality. The main objective of this research is specifically marked in estimate and forecast the Gross Domestic Product´s Growth Rate in Ecuador, applying for this BoxJenkins´ Methodology for ARIMA models. It was obtained a forecast of 3,96 % approximately, that represents a logical result according with the time series.

  12. Treatment of Outliers via Interpolation Method with Neural Network Forecast Performances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wahir, N. A.; Nor, M. E.; Rusiman, M. S.; Gopal, K.

    2018-04-01

    Outliers often lurk in many datasets, especially in real data. Such anomalous data can negatively affect statistical analyses, primarily normality, variance, and estimation aspects. Hence, handling the occurrences of outliers require special attention. Therefore, it is important to determine the suitable ways in treating outliers so as to ensure that the quality of the analyzed data is indeed high. As such, this paper discusses an alternative method to treat outliers via linear interpolation method. In fact, assuming outlier as a missing value in the dataset allows the application of the interpolation method to interpolate the outliers thus, enabling the comparison of data series using forecast accuracy before and after outlier treatment. With that, the monthly time series of Malaysian tourist arrivals from January 1998 until December 2015 had been used to interpolate the new series. The results indicated that the linear interpolation method, which was comprised of improved time series data, displayed better results, when compared to the original time series data in forecasting from both Box-Jenkins and neural network approaches.

  13. Forecasting Marine Corps Enlisted Manpower Inventory Levels With Univariate Time Series Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Feiring, Douglas I

    2006-01-01

    .... Models are developed for 44 representative population groups using Holt-Winters exponential smoothing, multiplicative decomposition, and Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA...

  14. Jenkins continuous integration cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Berg, Alan Mark

    2015-01-01

    If you are a Java developer, a software architect, a technical project manager, a build manager, or a development or QA engineer, then this book is ideal for you. A basic understanding of the software development life cycle and Java development is needed, as well as a rudimentary understanding of Jenkins.

  15. The analysis of time series: an introduction

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Chatfield, Christopher

    1989-01-01

    .... A variety of practical examples are given to support the theory. The book covers a wide range of time-series topics, including probability models for time series, Box-Jenkins forecasting, spectral analysis, linear systems and system identification...

  16. Potential barge transportation for inbound corn and grain

    Science.gov (United States)

    1997-12-31

    This research develops a model for estimating future barge and rail rates for decision making. The Box-Jenkins and the Regression Analysis with ARIMA errors forecasting methods were used to develop appropriate models for determining future rates. A s...

  17. The Jenkins of Charlottetown.

    OpenAIRE

    Whelan, W L

    1996-01-01

    For nearly a century residents of Prince Edward Island were served by three physicians known collectively to the community as Dr. Jenkins. Father John, son Stephen and grandson Jack, each of whom won acclaim for service to medicine, war service and political work, practised a total of 89 years, from 1856 to 1945. This article looks back at a distinguished family's career in medicine.

  18. TIME SERIES CHARACTERISTIC ANALYSIS OF RAINFALL, LAND USE AND FLOOD DISCHARGE BASED ON ARIMA BOX-JENKINS MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abror Abror

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia located in tropic area consists of wet season and dry season. However, in last few years, in river discharge in dry season is very little, but in contrary, in wet season, frequency of flood increases with sharp peak and increasingly great water elevation. The increased flood discharge may occur due to change in land use or change in rainfall characteristic. Both matters should get clarity. Therefore, a research should be done to analyze rainfall characteristic, land use and flood discharge in some watershed area (DAS quantitatively from time series data. The research was conducted in DAS Gintung in Parakankidang, DAS Gung in Danawarih, DAS Rambut in Cipero, DAS Kemiri in Sidapurna and DAS Comal in Nambo, located in Tegal Regency and Pemalang Regency in Central Java Province. This research activity consisted of three main steps: input, DAS system and output. Input is DAS determination and selection and searching secondary data. DAS system is early secondary data processing consisting of rainfall analysis, HSS GAMA I parameter, land type analysis and DAS land use. Output is final processing step that consisting of calculation of Tadashi Tanimoto, USSCS effective rainfall, flood discharge, ARIMA analysis, result analysis and conclusion. Analytical calculation of ARIMA Box-Jenkins time series used software Number Cruncher Statistical Systems and Power Analysis Sample Size (NCSS-PASS version 2000, which result in time series characteristic in form of time series pattern, mean square errors (MSE, root mean square ( RMS, autocorrelation of residual and trend. Result of this research indicates that composite CN and flood discharge is proportional that means when composite CN trend increase then flood discharge trend also increase and vice versa. Meanwhile, decrease of rainfall trend is not always followed with decrease in flood discharge trend. The main cause of flood discharge characteristic is DAS management characteristic, not change in

  19. Models for Train Passenger Forecasting of Java and Sumatra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartono

    2017-04-01

    People tend to take public transportation to avoid high traffic, especially in Java. In Jakarta, the number of railway passengers is over than the capacity of the train at peak time. This is an opportunity as well as a challenge. If it is managed well then the company can get high profit. Otherwise, it may lead to disaster. This article discusses models for the train passengers, hence, finding the reasonable models to make a prediction overtimes. The Box-Jenkins method is occupied to develop a basic model. Then, this model is compared to models obtained using exponential smoothing method and regression method. The result shows that Holt-Winters model is better to predict for one-month, three-month, and six-month ahead for the passenger in Java. In addition, SARIMA(1,1,0)(2,0,0) is more accurate for nine-month and twelve-month oversee. On the other hand, for Sumatra passenger forecasting, SARIMA(1,1,1)(0,0,2) gives a better approximation for one-month ahead, and ARIMA model is best for three-month ahead prediction. The rest, Trend Seasonal and Liner Model has the least of RMSE to forecast for six-month, nine-month, and twelve-month ahead.

  20. ARIMA MODEL BUILDING AND FORECASTING ON IMPORTS AND EXPORTS OF PAKISTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ahmad Farooqi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available From the day one, mankind has always been interested in to the future. As the civilization advanced with growing sophistication in all phases of life, the need to look in to the future also grew with it. Today every government, public private organizations, as well as an individual would like to predict and plan for the future. In order to attain a better growth in the economy of a country, modeling and forecasting is the most important tool now a day, this can be done by one of the statistical technique called a Time series analysis. In this paper we tried to build a time series model called ARIMA (Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average model with particular reference of Box and Jenkins approach on annually total Imports and Exports of Pakistan from the year 1947 to the year 2013 with useful statistical software R. Validity of the fitted model is tested using standard statistical techniques. The fitted model is then use to forecast some future values of Imports and export of Pakistan. It is found that an ARIMA (2, 2, 2 and ARIMA (1, 2, 2 model looks suitable to forecast the annual Imports and Exports of Pakistan respectively. We also found an increasing trend both in case of Imports and Exports during this study.

  1. Forecast of Frost Days Based on Monthly Temperatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castellanos, M. T.; Tarquis, A. M.; Morató, M. C.; Saa-Requejo, A.

    2009-04-01

    Although frost can cause considerable crop damage and mitigation practices against forecasted frost exist, frost forecasting technologies have not changed for many years. The paper reports a new method to forecast the monthly number of frost days (FD) for several meteorological stations at Community of Madrid (Spain) based on successive application of two models. The first one is a stochastic model, autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), that forecasts monthly minimum absolute temperature (tmin) and monthly average of minimum temperature (tminav) following Box-Jenkins methodology. The second model relates these monthly temperatures to minimum daily temperature distribution during one month. Three ARIMA models were identified for the time series analyzed with a stational period correspondent to one year. They present the same stational behavior (moving average differenced model) and different non-stational part: autoregressive model (Model 1), moving average differenced model (Model 2) and autoregressive and moving average model (Model 3). At the same time, the results point out that minimum daily temperature (tdmin), for the meteorological stations studied, followed a normal distribution each month with a very similar standard deviation through years. This standard deviation obtained for each station and each month could be used as a risk index for cold months. The application of Model 1 to predict minimum monthly temperatures showed the best FD forecast. This procedure provides a tool for crop managers and crop insurance companies to asses the risk of frost frequency and intensity, so that they can take steps to mitigate against frost damage and estimated the damage that frost would cost. This research was supported by Comunidad de Madrid Research Project 076/92. The cooperation of the Spanish National Meteorological Institute and the Spanish Ministerio de Agricultura, Pesca y Alimentation (MAPA) is gratefully acknowledged.

  2. A non-Gaussian generalisation of the Airline model for robust Seasonal Adjustment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Aston, J.; Koopman, S.J.

    2006-01-01

    In their seminal book Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control, Box and Jenkins (1976) introduce the Airline model, which is still routinely used for the modelling of economic seasonal time series. The Airline model is for a differenced time series (in levels and seasons) and constitutes a

  3. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-09-01

    Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents.

  4. Forecasting international tourism demand from the US, Japan and South Korea to Malaysia: A SARIMA approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Borhan, Nurbaizura; Arsad, Zainudin

    2014-07-01

    One of the major contributing sectors for Malaysia's economic growth is tourism. The number of international tourist arrivals to Malaysia has been showing an upward trend as a result of several programs and promotion introduced by the Malaysian government to attract international tourists to the country. This study attempts to model and to forecast tourism demand for Malaysia by three selected countries: the US, Japan and South Korea. This study utilized monthly time series data for the period from January 1999 to December 2012 and employed the well-known Box-Jenkins seasonal ARIMA modeling procedures. Not surprisingly the results show the number of tourist arrivals from the three countries contain strong seasonal component as the arrivals strongly dependent on the season in the country of origin. The findings of the study also show that the number of tourist arrivals from the US and South Korea will continue to increase in the near future. Meanwhile the arrivals from Japan is forecasted to show a drop in the near future and as such tourism authorities in Malaysia need to enhance the promotional effort to attract more tourists from Japan to visit Malaysia.

  5. Evaluation method for the deformation of channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sadaoka, Noriyuki; Kumahora, Hiroki; Miki, Kazuyoshi.

    1990-01-01

    In a BWR type nuclear reactor, a channel box undergoes creep deformation due to the effects of a pressure difference between inside and outside of the channel box and a reactor water temperature, which is accelerated by the irradiation of radiation rays and the extent of which depends on the loading position. Then, there are provided a step of determining the extent of the deformation of the channel box in a burning period in the past, a step of setting the loading position for the channel box in the reactor core, a step of forecasting the extent of the deformation of the channel box based on the data of reactor core characteristics, the date of the physical properties of the materials and the shape of the channel box, the data of the loading pattern of fuel assemblies and the extent of deformation, and a step of estimating whether the forecast deforming extent is within an allowable range or not. As a result, the deforming extent for each of the channel boxes can be forecast and, accordingly, the interference with the control rods can be estimated accurately. (N.H.)

  6. Performance Assessment of Black Box Capacity Forecasting for Multi-Market Trade Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pamela MacDougall

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available With the growth of renewable generated electricity in the energy mix, large energy storage and flexible demand, particularly aggregated demand response is becoming a front runner as a new participant in the wholesale energy markets. One of the biggest barriers for the integration of aggregator services into market participation is knowledge of the current and future flexible capacity. To calculate the available flexibility, the current aggregator pilot and simulation implementations use lower level measurements and device specifications. This type of implementation is not scalable due to computational constraints, as well as it could conflict with end user privacy rights. Black box machine learning approaches have been proven to accurately estimate the available capacity of a cluster of heating devices using only aggregated data. This study will investigate the accuracy of this approach when applied to a heterogeneous virtual power plant (VPP. Firstly, a sensitivity analysis of the machine learning model is performed when varying the underlying device makeup of the VPP. Further, the forecasted flexible capacity of a heterogeneous residential VPP was applied to a trade strategy, which maintains a day ahead schedule, as well as offers flexibility to the imbalance market. This performance is then compared when using the same strategy with no capacity forecasting, as well as perfect knowledge. It was shown that at most, the highest average error, regardless of the VPP makeup, was still less than 9%. Further, when applying the forecasted capacity to a trading strategy, 89% of the optimal performance can be met. This resulted in a reduction of monthly costs by approximately 20%.

  7. The Ideas of Henry Jenkins and Libraries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Byron

    2008-01-01

    Henry Jenkins, director of the Comparative Media Studies Program at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and keynote speaker at the 2007 American Library Association's "Gaming, Learning and Libraries Symposium" in Chicago is a visionary leader in the areas of new media and media convergence. In a white paper on digital media and learning…

  8. A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefzadeh-Chabok, Shahrokh; Ranjbar-Taklimie, Fatemeh; Malekpouri, Reza; Razzaghi, Alireza

    2016-01-01

    Background Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents. PMID:27800467

  9. Jenkins-CI, an Open-Source Continuous Integration System, as a Scientific Data and Image-Processing Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moutsatsos, Ioannis K.; Hossain, Imtiaz; Agarinis, Claudia; Harbinski, Fred; Abraham, Yann; Dobler, Luc; Zhang, Xian; Wilson, Christopher J.; Jenkins, Jeremy L.; Holway, Nicholas; Tallarico, John; Parker, Christian N.

    2016-01-01

    High-throughput screening generates large volumes of heterogeneous data that require a diverse set of computational tools for management, processing, and analysis. Building integrated, scalable, and robust computational workflows for such applications is challenging but highly valuable. Scientific data integration and pipelining facilitate standardized data processing, collaboration, and reuse of best practices. We describe how Jenkins-CI, an “off-the-shelf,” open-source, continuous integration system, is used to build pipelines for processing images and associated data from high-content screening (HCS). Jenkins-CI provides numerous plugins for standard compute tasks, and its design allows the quick integration of external scientific applications. Using Jenkins-CI, we integrated CellProfiler, an open-source image-processing platform, with various HCS utilities and a high-performance Linux cluster. The platform is web-accessible, facilitates access and sharing of high-performance compute resources, and automates previously cumbersome data and image-processing tasks. Imaging pipelines developed using the desktop CellProfiler client can be managed and shared through a centralized Jenkins-CI repository. Pipelines and managed data are annotated to facilitate collaboration and reuse. Limitations with Jenkins-CI (primarily around the user interface) were addressed through the selection of helper plugins from the Jenkins-CI community. PMID:27899692

  10. Jenkins-CI, an Open-Source Continuous Integration System, as a Scientific Data and Image-Processing Platform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moutsatsos, Ioannis K; Hossain, Imtiaz; Agarinis, Claudia; Harbinski, Fred; Abraham, Yann; Dobler, Luc; Zhang, Xian; Wilson, Christopher J; Jenkins, Jeremy L; Holway, Nicholas; Tallarico, John; Parker, Christian N

    2017-03-01

    High-throughput screening generates large volumes of heterogeneous data that require a diverse set of computational tools for management, processing, and analysis. Building integrated, scalable, and robust computational workflows for such applications is challenging but highly valuable. Scientific data integration and pipelining facilitate standardized data processing, collaboration, and reuse of best practices. We describe how Jenkins-CI, an "off-the-shelf," open-source, continuous integration system, is used to build pipelines for processing images and associated data from high-content screening (HCS). Jenkins-CI provides numerous plugins for standard compute tasks, and its design allows the quick integration of external scientific applications. Using Jenkins-CI, we integrated CellProfiler, an open-source image-processing platform, with various HCS utilities and a high-performance Linux cluster. The platform is web-accessible, facilitates access and sharing of high-performance compute resources, and automates previously cumbersome data and image-processing tasks. Imaging pipelines developed using the desktop CellProfiler client can be managed and shared through a centralized Jenkins-CI repository. Pipelines and managed data are annotated to facilitate collaboration and reuse. Limitations with Jenkins-CI (primarily around the user interface) were addressed through the selection of helper plugins from the Jenkins-CI community.

  11. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cadren, M.

    1998-01-01

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It's filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter's. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach's and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author)

  12. Koht, kust tagasi ei tulda / Mark Jenkins ; fotod Cory Richards

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    Jenkins, Mark

    2015-01-01

    National Geographicu ekspeditsiooni, mille koosseisu kuulusid Renan Ozturk, Mark Jenkins, Cory Richards, Emily Harrington ja Kilaree O'Neill, püüdlustest tõusta Kagu-Aasia kõrgeima mäe Hkakabo Razi tippu ning mõõta selle täpset kõrgust GPS-i abil

  13. The SO2 pollution in Madrid: Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finzi, G.; Garcia, R.; Hernandez, E.

    1983-01-01

    In this work, two different stochastic models will be considered, both oriented to the real-time forecast of daily SO 2 pollution in Madrid. The first one a ''black-box'' model, in which the input-output transfer function is identified by means of the methodology given by Box and Jenkins. The second one is a ''grey-box'' model with a simple reasonable structure in accordance with the physical laws of the phenomena. Moreover, its parameters can assume different values according to the different meteorological synoptic classes defined in part I. The comparison between the performance of the two models shows that the second one is more effective in predicting the critical pollution values

  14. Modeling of petroleum products demand in France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chauvel, A.; Jamin, F.; Cholet, G.

    1995-01-01

    This project was carried out under the responsibility of the Strategy-Economics-Program Division of the ''Institut Francais du Petrole''. The goal was the short-term (12 months) forecasting of the demand with regard to the four leading petroleum products in France - gas oil (GO), automotive (CA), home heating oil (FOD) and heavy fuel oil (FL). It was decided to test an original method (1) and to compare it with the widely used Box and Jenkins method (2), which gives good results for the GO and CA series but which proves disappointing for the FOD and FL series. This study is in two parts: (1) the first part describes the original method by breaking it down into trends and seasonality, with the model being additive or multiplicative. We improved its performances by using the theory of the Weiner filter; (2) the second part concerns Box an Jenkins modeling. This model was used on the unprocessed series and then on the series corrected for the influence of working days with the help of the ''Census-X11'' deseasonalization program. For each method, the principal phases are described for the modeling of gas oil on the French domestic market. For the other products, only the principal results are given, i.e. structure of the model retained, matching with reality, reliability of forecasts. (authors). 5 refs., 5 figs., 9 tabs

  15. Analysis of Tendencies Towards Changes in Temperatures of Railway Vehicle Axle Boxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Olegas Lunys

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available The paper analyzes variations in the temperature of axle-box heating of railroad rolling stock considering two modes of the train - driving and parking position. Additionally, the article describes the influence of the axle load and season on the heat of the axle-box, forecasts intolerable residual resources and explains a possibility of detecting likely breakage at the very beginning of defects. The paper also deals with scientific literature related to axle-box heating and focuses on the conducted practical and theoretical experiments. The carried out research has established the rates of operating heating and critical heating. The application of numerical values for the algorithm of automatic control devices could help with detecting the breakdowns of the axle-box before they reach a critical state and assist in forecasting residual operating resources.

  16. Forecasting Alcohol Consumption in the Czech Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tereza Slováčková

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with a forecast of developments in alcohol consumption based on current alcohol consumption per capita (expressed in litres of pure alcohol, and time series extrapolations. Alcohol consumption is to be considered from the vantage point of knowing the specifics of the product and the consequences of its excessive consumption. The predictive methodology makes use of the Box‑Jenkins method; the ARIMA model, taking into account the autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation process, which is a prerequisite for the successful identification of a time series model; model parameter estimation; appropriate transformations of time series; determining the order of differentiation and subsequent verification of the model. The chosen methodology for future trends in alcohol consumptions is a prerequisite for the proposed optional measures to control alcohol consumption in the Czech Republic. Due to the long term nature of the process to draw up and implement alcohol consumption regulation measures, the forecast covers the forthcoming 10 years.

  17. Ensemble forecasting of species distributions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Araújo, Miguel B; New, Mark

    2007-01-01

    Concern over implications of climate change for biodiversity has led to the use of bioclimatic models to forecast the range shifts of species under future climate-change scenarios. Recent studies have demonstrated that projections by alternative models can be so variable as to compromise their usefulness for guiding policy decisions. Here, we advocate the use of multiple models within an ensemble forecasting framework and describe alternative approaches to the analysis of bioclimatic ensembles, including bounding box, consensus and probabilistic techniques. We argue that, although improved accuracy can be delivered through the traditional tasks of trying to build better models with improved data, more robust forecasts can also be achieved if ensemble forecasts are produced and analysed appropriately.

  18. Time Series ARIMA Models of Undergraduate Grade Point Average.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rogers, Bruce G.

    The Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) Models, often referred to as Box-Jenkins models, are regression methods for analyzing sequential dependent observations with large amounts of data. The Box-Jenkins approach, a three-stage procedure consisting of identification, estimation and diagnosis, was used to select the most appropriate…

  19. Probabilistic Forecasting for On-line Operation of Urban Drainage Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland

    This thesis deals with the generation of probabilistic forecasts in urban hydrology. In particular, we focus on the case of runoff forecasting for real-time control (RTC) on horizons of up to two hours. For the generation of probabilistic on-line runoff forecasts, we apply the stochastic grey...... and forecasts have on on-line runoff forecast quality. Finally, we implement the stochastic grey-box model approach in a real-world real-time control (RTC) setup and study how RTC can benefit from a dynamic quantification of runoff forecast uncertainty....

  20. Real-time prediction of extreme ambient carbon monoxide concentrations due to vehicular exhaust emissions using univariate linear stochastic models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sharma, P.; Khare, M.

    2000-01-01

    Historical data of the time-series of carbon monoxide (CO) concentration was analysed using Box-Jenkins modelling approach. Univariate Linear Stochastic Models (ULSMs) were developed to examine the degree of prediction possible for situations where only a limited data set, restricted only to the past record of pollutant data are available. The developed models can be used to provide short-term, real-time forecast of extreme CO concentrations for an Air Quality Control Region (AQCR), comprising a major traffic intersection in a Central Business District of Delhi City, India. (author)

  1. An Empirical Study on the Behavior of Monthly Stock Prices of Fortune 500 Firms and S&P Smaller Firms: Evidence and Implications

    OpenAIRE

    Young H. Kim; Edward L. Davis; Charles T. Moses

    2014-01-01

    This paper revisits a random walk hypothesis by investigating the behavior of monthly stock prices of 461 Fortune 500 firms over 45 years and 599 S&P smaller firms over 10 years. The Box-Jenkins ARIMA models are applied to time series analysis and stock market forecasting to find the monthly stock price behavior. The research findings show that 309 (67.03%) Fortune 500 firms and 449 (74.96%) S&P smaller firms follow a random walk. The monthly stock prices of Fortune 500 firms and S&P firms ...

  2. Analysis of MUF data using arima models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, D.J.; Pike, D.H.; Morrison, G.W.

    1978-01-01

    An introduction to Box-Jenkins time series analysis is presented. It is shown how the models presented by Box-Jenkins can be applied to material unaccounted for (MUF) data to detect losses. For the constant loss case an optimal estimate of the loss is found and its probability of detection found

  3. The Use of Computer-Assisted Identification of ARIMA Time-Series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Roger L.

    This study was conducted to determine the effects of using various levels of tutorial statistical software for the tentative identification of nonseasonal ARIMA models, a statistical technique proposed by Box and Jenkins for the interpretation of time-series data. The Box-Jenkins approach is an iterative process encompassing several stages of…

  4. Toprak Radon (222Rn Gazı Anomalilerinin ARIMA Analizi

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miraç KAMIŞLIOĞLU

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Özet: Zaman serileri analizi, istatistik, ekonomi, fizik ve mühendislik gibi bilim dallarında geniş uygulama alanına sahiptir. Zaman serisi analizi, değişkenlerin gelecekteki değerlerinin doğru bir şekilde tahmin edilmesi için kullanılan bir yöntemdir. Bu çalışmada, bir deprem öncüsü olarak bilinen toprak radon gazı (222Rn ölçümleri ile bir zaman serisi oluşturulmuştur. Bu veriler kullanılarak, otoregresif süreçler (ARIMA yardımıyla dinamik sistem modellemesi yapılmıştır. ARIMA; zaman serileri analizinde, zaman içerisinde rastgele gerçekleşen bir stokastik (olasılıksal sürecin veya hatalarının modellenmesidir. ARIMA modeli, temelde Box-Jenkins modeline dayanmaktadır. Box-Jenkins modeli, tek değişkenli zaman serilerinin ileriye dönük tahmin ve kontrolünde kullanılan istatistiksel tabanlı bir yöntemdir. Elde edilen sonuçlar, ARIMA modellerinin tahmin konusundaki başarısını göstermektedir. Anahtar kelimeler: Zaman Serileri Analizi, Radon Gazı (222Rn, ARIMA ARIMA Analysis of Soil Radon (222Rn Gas Anomalies Abstract: Time series analysis, has wide applications in statistics, economics, physics and engineering such disciplines. This method used for estimate correctly future values of the variables. In this study, is formed a time series with soil radon gas (222Rn measurements known as a pioneer of an earthquake. Dynamic system modelling was performed with autoregressive (ARIMA modelling process by used these measurements. ARIMA; time series analysis is modelled of the recoverable over time a random stochastic (probabilistic process or its errors. ARIMA model is based on Box-Jenkins model. Box-Jenkins model is a statistically based method which is used forward-looking forecasting and control of univariate time series. The obtained results, ARIMA model is indicating success in predict subject. Key words: Time Series Analysis, Radon Gas (222Rn, ARIMA

  5. Neural network versus classical time series forecasting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nor, Maria Elena; Safuan, Hamizah Mohd; Shab, Noorzehan Fazahiyah Md; Asrul, Mohd; Abdullah, Affendi; Mohamad, Nurul Asmaa Izzati; Lee, Muhammad Hisyam

    2017-05-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) has advantage in time series forecasting as it has potential to solve complex forecasting problems. This is because ANN is data driven approach which able to be trained to map past values of a time series. In this study the forecast performance between neural network and classical time series forecasting method namely seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average models was being compared by utilizing gold price data. Moreover, the effect of different data preprocessing on the forecast performance of neural network being examined. The forecast accuracy was evaluated using mean absolute deviation, root mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It was found that ANN produced the most accurate forecast when Box-Cox transformation was used as data preprocessing.

  6. Short term forecasting of petroleum product demand in France; Modelisation a court terme des consommations de produits petroliers en France

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cadren, M

    1998-06-23

    The analysis of petroleum product demand became a privileged thrust of research following the modifications in terms of structure and level of the petroleum markets since eighties. The greatest importance to econometrics models of Energy demand, joint works about nonstationary data, explained the development of error-correction models and the co-integration. In this context, the short term econometrics modelling of petroleum product demand does not only focus on forecasts but also on the measure of the gain acquired from using error-correction techniques and co-integration. It`s filling to take the influence of technical improvement and environment pressures into account in econometrics modelling of petroleum products demand. The first part presents the evolution of Energy Demand in France and more particularly the petroleum product demand since 1986. The objective is to determine the main characteristics of each product, which will help us to analyse and validate the econometrics models. The second part focus on the recent developments in times series modelling. We study the problem of nonstationary data and expose different unit root tests. We examine the main approaches to univariate and multivariate modelling with nonstationary data and distinguish the forecasts of the latter`s. The third part is intended to applications; its objective is to illustrate the theoretic developments of the second part with a comparison between the performances of different approaches (approach Box and Jenkins, Johansen approach`s and structural approach). The models will be applied to the main French petroleum market. The observed asymmetrical demand behaviour is also considered. (author) 153 refs.

  7. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, F.; Odier, J.; Fulachier, J.; ATLAS Collaboration

    2017-10-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring and administration systems, and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand.

  8. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins.

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)637120; The ATLAS collaboration; Odier, Jerome; Fulachier, Jerome

    2017-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring and administration systems, and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand.

  9. A Monte Carlo Investigation of the Box-Cox Model and a Nonlinear Least Squares Alternative.

    OpenAIRE

    Showalter, Mark H

    1994-01-01

    This paper reports a Monte Carlo study of the Box-Cox model and a nonlinear least squares alternative. Key results include the following: the transformation parameter in the Box-Cox model appears to be inconsistently estimated in the presence of conditional heteroskedasticity; the constant term in both the Box-Cox and the nonlinear least squares models is poorly estimated in small samples; conditional mean forecasts tend to underestimate their true value in the Box-Cox model when the transfor...

  10. Probabilistic online runoff forecasting for urban catchments using inputs from rain gauges as well as statically and dynamically adjusted weather radar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Thorndahl, Søren; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2014-01-01

    We investigate the application of rainfall observations and forecasts from rain gauges and weather radar as input to operational urban runoff forecasting models. We apply lumped rainfall runoff models implemented in a stochastic grey-box modelling framework. Different model structures are conside......We investigate the application of rainfall observations and forecasts from rain gauges and weather radar as input to operational urban runoff forecasting models. We apply lumped rainfall runoff models implemented in a stochastic grey-box modelling framework. Different model structures...

  11. Deploying the ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) on the cloud with Jenkins

    CERN Document Server

    Lambert, Fabian; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The ATLAS Metadata Interface (AMI) is a mature application of more than 15 years of existence. Mainly used by the ATLAS experiment at CERN, it consists of a very generic tool ecosystem for metadata aggregation and cataloguing. AMI is used by the ATLAS production system, therefore the service must guarantee a high level of availability. We describe our monitoring system and the Jenkins-based strategy used to dynamically test and deploy cloud OpenStack nodes on demand. Moreover, we describe how to switch to a distant replica in case of downtime.

  12. Robust Building Energy Load Forecasting Using Physically-Based Kernel Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anand Krishnan Prakash

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Robust and accurate building energy load forecasting is important for helping building managers and utilities to plan, budget, and strategize energy resources in advance. With recent prevalent adoption of smart-meters in buildings, a significant amount of building energy consumption data became available. Many studies have developed physics-based white box models and data-driven black box models to predict building energy consumption; however, they require extensive prior knowledge about building system, need a large set of training data, or lack robustness to different forecasting scenarios. In this paper, we introduce a new building energy forecasting method based on Gaussian Process Regression (GPR that incorporates physical insights about load data characteristics to improve accuracy while reducing training requirements. The GPR is a non-parametric regression method that models the data as a joint Gaussian distribution with mean and covariance functions and forecast using the Bayesian updating. We model the covariance function of the GPR to reflect the data patterns in different forecasting horizon scenarios, as prior knowledge. Our method takes advantage of the modeling flexibility and computational efficiency of the GPR while benefiting from the physical insights to further improve the training efficiency and accuracy. We evaluate our method with three field datasets from two university campuses (Carnegie Mellon University and Stanford University for both short- and long-term load forecasting. The results show that our method performs more accurately, especially when the training dataset is small, compared to other state-of-the-art forecasting models (up to 2.95 times smaller prediction error.

  13. DEFECT MONITORING IN IRON CASTING USING RESIDUES OF AUTOREGRESSIVE MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vanusa Andrea Casarin

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to monitor the index of general waste irons forecasting nodular and gray using the residues originated from the methodology Box & Jenkins by means of X-bar and R control charts. Search is to find a general class of model ARIMA (p, d, q but as data have autocorrelation is found to the number of residues which allowed the application of charts. The found model was the model SARIMA (0,1,1(0,1,1 . In step of checking the stability of the model was found that some comments are out of control due to temperature and chemical composition.

  14. Análisis de series temporales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guillermo Corres

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available En este trabajo se analiza el error que se comete cuando se pronostican las actividades operativas en una empresa conservera de la zona, utilizando métodos de proyección histórica cuantitativos: determinísticos (suavizado exponencial y variantes,  estocásticos (Box -Jenkins y  de proyección enfocada. Estos métodos se emplearon para analizar las ventas ocurridas en 5 años. Utilizando como criterio de selección el método de menor RMSE se determinó cuál era el mejor modelo para los distintos productos. No se pudo obtener un único método de pronóstico.   También se realizó un análisis acerca de los distintos softwares –Crystal Ball y SPSS-  que se utilizaron en la obtención de los mismos. Posteriormente se mejoraron las proyecciones obtenidas a través de la alternativa de combinación lineal de los distintos pronósticos y la alternativa de suavizado exponencial de los datos iniciales. In this work it was analyzed the error that is produced when the operations activities are fore-casted in a fish conserved industry of this region. It was applied several quantitative methods like exponential smoothing and its different versions, Box Jenkins and the forecasting method that it is used in the industry  analyzed. The sales in a  five years were analyzed . Using as criterion to select the method,  the  minor error (RMSE it was determined the best method for every product. Its not found a common method for all products.  Moreover, it was analyzed the software used to obtain the forecasting Crystal Ball and SPSS. Better results were found when the results were combined trough of lineal combination and a previous treatment of dates (exponential smoothing was performed.

  15. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Ogtrop, F. F.; Vervoort, R. W.; Heller, G. Z.; Stasinopoulos, D. M.; Rigby, R. A.

    2011-11-01

    Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS) to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth) of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  16. Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. F. van Ogtrop

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available Long-range forecasting of intermittent streamflow in semi-arid Australia poses a number of major challenges. One of the challenges relates to modelling zero, skewed, non-stationary, and non-linear data. To address this, a statistical model to forecast streamflow up to 12 months ahead is applied to five semi-arid catchments in South Western Queensland. The model uses logistic regression through Generalised Additive Models for Location, Scale and Shape (GAMLSS to determine the probability of flow occurring in any of the systems. We then use the same regression framework in combination with a right-skewed distribution, the Box-Cox t distribution, to model the intensity (depth of the non-zero streamflows. Time, seasonality and climate indices, describing the Pacific and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures, are tested as covariates in the GAMLSS model to make probabilistic 6 and 12-month forecasts of the occurrence and intensity of streamflow. The output reveals that in the study region the occurrence and variability of flow is driven by sea surface temperatures and therefore forecasts can be made with some skill.

  17. Time series analysis of dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, French West Indies: Forecasting models using climate variables as predictors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruche Guy

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background During the last decades, dengue viruses have spread throughout the Americas region, with an increase in the number of severe forms of dengue. The surveillance system in Guadeloupe (French West Indies is currently operational for the detection of early outbreaks of dengue. The goal of the study was to improve this surveillance system by assessing a modelling tool to predict the occurrence of dengue epidemics few months ahead and thus to help an efficient dengue control. Methods The Box-Jenkins approach allowed us to fit a Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA model of dengue incidence from 2000 to 2006 using clinical suspected cases. Then, this model was used for calculating dengue incidence for the year 2007 compared with observed data, using three different approaches: 1 year-ahead, 3 months-ahead and 1 month-ahead. Finally, we assessed the impact of meteorological variables (rainfall, temperature and relative humidity on the prediction of dengue incidence and outbreaks, incorporating them in the model fitting the best. Results The 3 months-ahead approach was the most appropriate for an effective and operational public health response, and the most accurate (Root Mean Square Error, RMSE = 0.85. Relative humidity at lag-7 weeks, minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks and average temperature at lag-11 weeks were variables the most positively correlated to dengue incidence in Guadeloupe, meanwhile rainfall was not. The predictive power of SARIMA models was enhanced by the inclusion of climatic variables as external regressors to forecast the year 2007. Temperature significantly affected the model for better dengue incidence forecasting (p-value = 0.03 for minimum temperature lag-5, p-value = 0.02 for average temperature lag-11 but not humidity. Minimum temperature at lag-5 weeks was the best climatic variable for predicting dengue outbreaks (RMSE = 0.72. Conclusion Temperature improves dengue outbreaks forecasts

  18. Projected Applications of a "Climate in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew L.; Zavodsky, Bradley; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center focuses on the transition of unique observations and research capabilities to the operational weather community, with a goal of improving short-term forecasts on a regional scale. Advances in research computing have lead to "Climate in a Box" systems, with hardware configurations capable of producing high resolution, near real-time weather forecasts, but with footprints, power, and cooling requirements that are comparable to desktop systems. The SPoRT Center has developed several capabilities for incorporating unique NASA research capabilities and observations with real-time weather forecasts. Planned utilization includes the development of a fully-cycled data assimilation system used to drive 36-48 hour forecasts produced by the NASA Unified version of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model (NU-WRF). The horsepower provided by the "Climate in a Box" system is expected to facilitate the assimilation of vertical profiles of temperature and moisture provided by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) aboard the NASA Aqua satellite. In addition, the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) instruments aboard NASA s Aqua and Terra satellites provide high-resolution sea surface temperatures and vegetation characteristics. The development of MODIS normalized difference vegetation index (NVDI) composites for use within the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will assist in the characterization of vegetation, and subsequently the surface albedo and processes related to soil moisture. Through application of satellite simulators, NASA satellite instruments can be used to examine forecast model errors in cloud cover and other characteristics. Through the aforementioned application of the "Climate in a Box" system and NU-WRF capabilities, an end goal is the establishment of a real-time forecast system that fully integrates modeling and analysis capabilities developed within the NASA SPo

  19. Building a Career in America's Community Colleges: Essays by Rob Jenkins from "The Chronicle of Higher Education"

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Errico, Deanna, Ed.

    2010-01-01

    This volume collects essays Rob Jenkins originally wrote for "The Two-Year Track" column in "The Chronicle of Higher Education". Drawing on his own experience, Rob has, for many years, been dispensing much-appreciated advice from the frontline--to those considering a community college career as well as those who desire to move up the ranks. This…

  20. A Bayesian joint probability modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Q. J.; Robertson, D. E.; Chiew, F. H. S.

    2009-05-01

    Seasonal forecasting of streamflows can be highly valuable for water resources management. In this paper, a Bayesian joint probability (BJP) modeling approach for seasonal forecasting of streamflows at multiple sites is presented. A Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution is proposed to model the joint distribution of future streamflows and their predictors such as antecedent streamflows and El Niño-Southern Oscillation indices and other climate indicators. Bayesian inference of model parameters and uncertainties is implemented using Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, leading to joint probabilistic forecasts of streamflows at multiple sites. The model provides a parametric structure for quantifying relationships between variables, including intersite correlations. The Box-Cox transformed multivariate normal distribution has considerable flexibility for modeling a wide range of predictors and predictands. The Bayesian inference formulated allows the use of data that contain nonconcurrent and missing records. The model flexibility and data-handling ability means that the BJP modeling approach is potentially of wide practical application. The paper also presents a number of statistical measures and graphical methods for verification of probabilistic forecasts of continuous variables. Results for streamflows at three river gauges in the Murrumbidgee River catchment in southeast Australia show that the BJP modeling approach has good forecast quality and that the fitted model is consistent with observed data.

  1. Estudo dos métodos de previsão de demanda aplicado em uma empresa de auditorias médicas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Castello Branco Mancuso

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de demanda é um dos principais fatores para a eficiência do gerenciamento das organizações, afetando diretamente a lucratividade do negócio. Quanto maior a acurácia da previsão de demanda melhor será o desempenho empresarial. Neste ideal, métodos de combinação de previsões e suas previsões individuais vêm sendo constantemente comparados. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é averiguar como as redes neurais artificiais (RNA e o modelo de combinação por regressão se comportam frente a uma série de dados reais (divergentes, métodos encontrados como melhores no estudo de simulação (séries estacionárias em Mancuso (2013. Aplicado aos dados de demanda dos serviços na área de auditoria médica, três técnicas de previsão foram avaliadas: RNA, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA, alisamento exponencial; e três combinações foram consideradas: média simples (aritmética, variância mínima e regressão. Os resultados demonstram a superioridade dos métodos de combinação, em termos precisão, comparados às previsões individuais.Acombinação por regressão obteve as previsões mais acuradas, mas as previsões obtidas com RNA não apresentaram o mesmo destaque. Demand forecasting is a major factor for the efficiency of the management of organizations, directly affecting business profitability. Higher accuracy of the prediction, better the business performance. In this ideal, methods of combining individual forecasts and their forecasts are being constantly compared. The main objective of this work is to investigate how artificial neural networks (ANN and regression model combination behave in the face of a series of real data (divergent, better methods found in the simulation study (stationary series in Mancuso (2013. Applied to demand data services in the area of medical audit, three forecasting techniques were evaluated: ANN, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and three combinations were considered: simple average

  2. Estudo dos métodos de previsão de demanda aplicado em uma empresa de auditorias médicas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aline Castello Branco Mancuso

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available A previsão de demanda é um dos principais fatores para a eficiência do gerenciamento das organizações, afetando diretamente a lucratividade do negócio. Quanto maior a acurácia da previsão de demanda melhor será o desempenho empresarial. Neste ideal, métodos de combinação de previsões e suas previsões individuais vêm sendo constantemente comparados. O objetivo principal deste trabalho é averiguar como as redes neurais artificiais (RNA e o modelo de combinação por regressão se comportam frente a uma série de dados reais (divergentes, métodos encontrados como melhores no estudo de simulação (séries estacionárias em Mancuso (2013. Aplicado aos dados de demanda dos serviços na área de auditoria médica, três técnicas de previsão foram avaliadas: RNA, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA, alisamento exponencial; e três combinações foram consideradas: média simples (aritmética, variância mínima e regressão. Os resultados demonstram a superioridade dos métodos de combinação, em termos precisão, comparados às previsões individuais.Acombinação por regressão obteve as previsões mais acuradas, mas as previsões obtidas com RNA não apresentaram o mesmo destaque. Demand forecasting is a major factor for the efficiency of the management of organizations, directly affecting business profitability. Higher accuracy of the prediction, better the business performance. In this ideal, methods of combining individual forecasts and their forecasts are being constantly compared. The main objective of this work is to investigate how artificial neural networks (ANN and regression model combination behave in the face of a series of real data (divergent, better methods found in the simulation study (stationary series in Mancuso (2013. Applied to demand data services in the area of medical audit, three forecasting techniques were evaluated: ANN, Box-Jenkins (ARIMA, exponential smoothing, and three combinations were considered: simple average

  3. The high-resolution global SST forecast set of the CSIR

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available -RESOLUTION GLOBAL SST FORECAST SET OF THE CSIR Willem A. Landman Council for Scientific and Industrial Research, P. O. Box 395, Pretoria, 0001, South Africa David G. DeWitt and Dong-Eun Lee International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Lamont...

  4. Jenkins study does not refute BfR statement on the needlessness of diabetic foods

    OpenAIRE

    German Federal Institute for Risk Assessment

    2009-01-01

    In a new study, the Canadian researchers Jenkins et al. again review the effects of diets for individuals suffering from diabetes mellitus type 2. In the study, the effects of a low-carbohydrate diet with a low glycaemic index (GI) compared with a diet high in dietary fibre on the health of patients were examined. 210 diabetics (diabetes mellitus type 2) received one of the two diets for six months. The risk factors for high blood glucose level and cardiovascular diseases were studied. From ...

  5. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.

    2015-01-01

    in Africa. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic-hydrodynamic model which is entirely based on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations......Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically based and distributed modeling schemes employing data...... assimilation techniques. However, few studies have attempted to develop operational probabilistic forecasting approaches for large and poorly gauged river basins. The objective of this study is to develop open-source software tools to support hydrologic forecasting and integrated water resources management...

  6. Tailored vs Black-Box Models for Forecasting Hourly Average Solar Irradiance

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Brabec, Marek; Paulescu, M.; Badescu, V.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 111, January (2015), s. 320-331 ISSN 0038-092X R&D Projects: GA MŠk LD12009 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : solar irradiance * forecasting * tilored statistical models Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 3.685, year: 2015

  7. Structured, Physically Inspired (Gray Box) Models Versus Black Box Modeling for Forecasting the Output Power of Photovoltaic Plants

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Paulescu, M.; Brabec, Marek; Boata, R.; Badescu, V.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 121, 15 February (2017), s. 792-802 ISSN 0360-5442 Grant - others:European Cooperation in Science and Technology(XE) COST ES1002 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : photovoltaic plant * output power * forecasting * fuzzy model * generalized additive model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research OBOR OECD: Statistics and probability Impact factor: 4.520, year: 2016

  8. Operational river discharge forecasting in poorly gauged basins: the Kavango River Basin case study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bauer-Gottwein, Peter; Jensen, Iris Hedegaard; Guzinski, R.

    2014-01-01

    to support integrated water resources management in Africa and to facilitate the use of satellite earth observation data in water management. We present an operational probabilistic forecasting approach which uses public-domain climate forcing data and a hydrologic–hydrodynamic model which is entirely based......Operational probabilistic forecasts of river discharge are essential for effective water resources management. Many studies have addressed this topic using different approaches ranging from purely statistical black-box approaches to physically-based and distributed modelling schemes employing data...... on open-source software. Data assimilation techniques are used to inform the forecasts with the latest available observations. Forecasts are produced in real time for lead times of 0 to 7 days. The operational probabilistic forecasts are evaluated using a selection of performance statistics and indicators...

  9. On the effect of model parameters on forecast objects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzban, Caren; Jones, Corinne; Li, Ning; Sandgathe, Scott

    2018-04-01

    Many physics-based numerical models produce a gridded, spatial field of forecasts, e.g., a temperature map. The field for some quantities generally consists of spatially coherent and disconnected objects. Such objects arise in many problems, including precipitation forecasts in atmospheric models, eddy currents in ocean models, and models of forest fires. Certain features of these objects (e.g., location, size, intensity, and shape) are generally of interest. Here, a methodology is developed for assessing the impact of model parameters on the features of forecast objects. The main ingredients of the methodology include the use of (1) Latin hypercube sampling for varying the values of the model parameters, (2) statistical clustering algorithms for identifying objects, (3) multivariate multiple regression for assessing the impact of multiple model parameters on the distribution (across the forecast domain) of object features, and (4) methods for reducing the number of hypothesis tests and controlling the resulting errors. The final output of the methodology is a series of box plots and confidence intervals that visually display the sensitivities. The methodology is demonstrated on precipitation forecasts from a mesoscale numerical weather prediction model.

  10. Number 13 / Part I. Music. 6. Requiem by Karl Jenkins. An Analytical Approach to The Interweaving of Various Traditions in Music

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iațeșen Loredana Viorica

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In the diverse space of contemporary music, the fascinating and controversial personality of the Welsh composer Karl Jenkins, which is surprising from several perspectives, stands out. Open to assimilating and processing music from various sources (academic, liturgical, folk, entertainment, oriental, exotic, the all-round musician Karl Jenkins impresses the public with unexpected artistic choices, giving up the hypostasis of instrumentalist of the jazz-rock band Nucleus and of the group Softmachine in favour of the postmodern creator he has become today, synthetizing trends from musical compositions of the last decades of the 20th century. Once with the return to the functional system, either through minimalism or through neo-romanticism, the artist has successfully covered a potential sonority path of modern opposites, also evoking references to creative models of the past. We are referring to the musical valorizing of the sacred in a synthetic vision between tradition and innovation, in the works included in the Adiemus cycle, in the opus choir Missa for Peace and, more particularly, in the Requiem (2005, a significant score in the contemporaneity. The manner in which the composer, while resorting to a musical genre originating from the Roman Catholic cult and drawing on the liturgical text of the Mass for the dead, inserted Japanese poetry, written following the structure of haiku, belonging to representative authors - Gozan Koshigaya, Issho Kosughi, Hokusai Katsushika, Kaga-no-Chiyo, is highly surprising. This study aims to highlight the interweaving imagined by Karl Jenkins between the two cultures as well as to conduct a semantic analysis of an opus in which the relationships between music and words entail a highly emotional response.

  11. Hybrid Stochastic Forecasting Model for Management of Large Open Water Reservoir with Storage Function

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kozel, Tomas; Stary, Milos

    2017-12-01

    The main advantage of stochastic forecasting is fan of possible value whose deterministic method of forecasting could not give us. Future development of random process is described better by stochastic then deterministic forecasting. Discharge in measurement profile could be categorized as random process. Content of article is construction and application of forecasting model for managed large open water reservoir with supply function. Model is based on neural networks (NS) and zone models, which forecasting values of average monthly flow from inputs values of average monthly flow, learned neural network and random numbers. Part of data was sorted to one moving zone. The zone is created around last measurement average monthly flow. Matrix of correlation was assembled only from data belonging to zone. The model was compiled for forecast of 1 to 12 month with using backward month flows (NS inputs) from 2 to 11 months for model construction. Data was got ridded of asymmetry with help of Box-Cox rule (Box, Cox, 1964), value r was found by optimization. In next step were data transform to standard normal distribution. The data were with monthly step and forecast is not recurring. 90 years long real flow series was used for compile of the model. First 75 years were used for calibration of model (matrix input-output relationship), last 15 years were used only for validation. Outputs of model were compared with real flow series. For comparison between real flow series (100% successfully of forecast) and forecasts, was used application to management of artificially made reservoir. Course of water reservoir management using Genetic algorithm (GE) + real flow series was compared with Fuzzy model (Fuzzy) + forecast made by Moving zone model. During evaluation process was founding the best size of zone. Results show that the highest number of input did not give the best results and ideal size of zone is in interval from 25 to 35, when course of management was almost same for

  12. 1994 Solid waste forecast container volume summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Templeton, K.J.; Clary, J.L.

    1994-09-01

    This report describes a 30-year forecast of the solid waste volumes by container type. The volumes described are low-level mixed waste (LLMW) and transuranic/transuranic mixed (TRU/TRUM) waste. These volumes and their associated container types will be generated or received at the US Department of Energy Hanford Site for storage, treatment, and disposal at Westinghouse Hanford Company's Solid Waste Operations Complex (SWOC) during a 30-year period from FY 1994 through FY 2023. The forecast data for the 30-year period indicates that approximately 307,150 m 3 of LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste will be managed by the SWOC. The main container type for this waste is 55-gallon drums, which will be used to ship 36% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of 55-gallon drums is Past Practice Remediation. This waste will be generated by the Environmental Restoration Program during remediation of Hanford's past practice sites. Although Past Practice Remediation is the primary generator of 55-gallon drums, most waste generators are planning to ship some percentage of their waste in 55-gallon drums. Long-length equipment containers (LECs) are forecasted to contain 32% of the LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste. The main waste generator forecasting the use of LECs is the Long-Length Equipment waste generator, which is responsible for retrieving contaminated long-length equipment from the tank farms. Boxes are forecasted to contain 21% of the waste. These containers are primarily forecasted for use by the Environmental Restoration Operations--D ampersand D of Surplus Facilities waste generator. This waste generator is responsible for the solid waste generated during decontamination and decommissioning (D ampersand D) of the facilities currently on the Surplus Facilities Program Plan. The remaining LLMW and TRU/TRUM waste volume is planned to be shipped in casks and other miscellaneous containers

  13. Prediction of welding shrinkage deformation of bridge steel box girder based on wavelet neural network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tao, Yulong; Miao, Yunshui; Han, Jiaqi; Yan, Feiyun

    2018-05-01

    Aiming at the low accuracy of traditional forecasting methods such as linear regression method, this paper presents a prediction method for predicting the relationship between bridge steel box girder and its displacement with wavelet neural network. Compared with traditional forecasting methods, this scheme has better local characteristics and learning ability, which greatly improves the prediction ability of deformation. Through analysis of the instance and found that after compared with the traditional prediction method based on wavelet neural network, the rigid beam deformation prediction accuracy is higher, and is superior to the BP neural network prediction results, conform to the actual demand of engineering design.

  14. Evaluation of statistical models for forecast errors from the HBV model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, Kolbjørn; Renard, Benjamin; Steinsland, Ingelin; Kolberg, Sjur

    2010-04-01

    SummaryThree statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow into the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to the agreement between (i) the forecast distribution and the observations and (ii) median values of the forecast distribution and the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on weather classes. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order auto-regressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the third model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before conditioning the mean error values on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: we wanted (a) the forecast distribution to be reliable; (b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; (c) the median values of the forecast distribution to be close to the observed values. Models 1 and 2 gave almost identical results. The median values improved the forecast with Nash-Sutcliffe R eff increasing from 0.77 for the original forecast to 0.87 for the corrected forecasts. Models 1 and 2 over-estimated the forecast intervals but gave the narrowest intervals. Their main drawback was that the distributions are less reliable than Model 3. For Model 3 the median values did not fit well since the auto-correlation was not accounted for. Since Model 3 did not benefit from the potential variance reduction that lies in bias estimation and removal it gave on average wider forecasts intervals than the two other models. At the same time Model 3 on average slightly under-estimated the forecast intervals, probably explained by the use of average measures to evaluate the fit.

  15. Projected Applications of a "Weather in a Box" Computing System at the NASA Short-Term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jedlovec, Gary J.; Molthan, Andrew; Zavodsky, Bradley T.; Case, Jonathan L.; LaFontaine, Frank J.; Srikishen, Jayanthi

    2010-01-01

    The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition Center (SPoRT)'s new "Weather in a Box" resources will provide weather research and forecast modeling capabilities for real-time application. Model output will provide additional forecast guidance and research into the impacts of new NASA satellite data sets and software capabilities. By combining several research tools and satellite products, SPoRT can generate model guidance that is strongly influenced by unique NASA contributions.

  16. Evaluation Of Statistical Models For Forecast Errors From The HBV-Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, K.; Kolberg, S.; Renard, B.; Stensland, I.

    2009-04-01

    Three statistical models for the forecast errors for inflow to the Langvatn reservoir in Northern Norway have been constructed and tested according to how well the distribution and median values of the forecasts errors fit to the observations. For the first model observed and forecasted inflows were transformed by the Box-Cox transformation before a first order autoregressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. The parameters were conditioned on climatic conditions. In the second model the Normal Quantile Transformation (NQT) was applied on observed and forecasted inflows before a similar first order autoregressive model was constructed for the forecast errors. For the last model positive and negative errors were modeled separately. The errors were first NQT-transformed before a model where the mean values were conditioned on climate, forecasted inflow and yesterday's error. To test the three models we applied three criterions: We wanted a) the median values to be close to the observed values; b) the forecast intervals to be narrow; c) the distribution to be correct. The results showed that it is difficult to obtain a correct model for the forecast errors, and that the main challenge is to account for the auto-correlation in the errors. Model 1 and 2 gave similar results, and the main drawback is that the distributions are not correct. The 95% forecast intervals were well identified, but smaller forecast intervals were over-estimated, and larger intervals were under-estimated. Model 3 gave a distribution that fits better, but the median values do not fit well since the auto-correlation is not properly accounted for. If the 95% forecast interval is of interest, Model 2 is recommended. If the whole distribution is of interest, Model 3 is recommended.

  17. ANALISA INVESTASI DALAM PENGAMBILAN KEPUTUSAN INVESTASI PADA PENGEMBANGAN LAPANGAN GOLF DAN PERUMAHAN CITRARAYA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Njo Anastasia

    2001-01-01

    Full Text Available Investment in the real estate sector has a great risk, therefore a developer needs to do investment analysis before making a decision. The decision is made by considering the returns from two investment alternatives. The first alternative examined is a 9-hole golf course and housing in proximity to the golf. The second alternative is residential property. Given the above conditions, the purpose of this research is to help the developer to make the proper investment decision, based on which alternative has the higher return. Two data collection methods are used in this research, including interviews and a survey which was done by distributing questionnaires to develop a profile of golfers and purchasers as well as potential residential purchasers. Forecasting analysis using the Holt-Winters model was used for forecasting the number of golfers. The Box-Jenkins model was utilized to forecast residential sales. The forecasting results were used for cash flow analysis. The results show that the first alternative produces a higher IRR (25,16% per year and NPV of Rp.25.056.800.000 , relative to the the second alternative with an IRR of 16,72% per year and NPV of Rp.4.794.945.000. Thus, the first alternative, a 9-hole golf course and housing in proximity to the golf, was selected. Abstract in Bahasa Indonesia : Investasi di bidang real estat mengandung risiko besar, sehingga pengembang perlu melakukan analisa investasi sebelum mengambil keputusan. Pengambilan keputusan adalah dengan mempertimbangkan tingkat pengembalian dua alternatif investasi. Alternatif pertama adalah properti 9-hole lapangan golf dan perumahan dalam bentuk kavling golf. Alternatif kedua adalah properti perumahan saja. Dengan kondisi di atas, maka tujuan dari penelitian ini adalah membantu pengembang untuk memutuskan menginvestasikan dananya di alternatif pertama jika tingkat pengembalian investasinya lebih tinggi dibanding alternatif kedua. Metode penelitian yang digunakan adalah

  18. Development of K-Nearest Neighbour Regression Method in Forecasting River Stream Flow

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Azmi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Different statistical, non-statistical and black-box methods have been used in forecasting processes. Among statistical methods, K-nearest neighbour non-parametric regression method (K-NN due to its natural simplicity and mathematical base is one of the recommended methods for forecasting processes. In this study, K-NN method is explained completely. Besides, development and improvement approaches such as best neighbour estimation, data transformation functions, distance functions and proposed extrapolation method are described. K-NN method in company with its development approaches is used in streamflow forecasting of Zayandeh-Rud Dam upper basin. Comparing between final results of classic K-NN method and modified K-NN (number of neighbour 5, transformation function of Range Scaling, distance function of Mahanalobis and proposed extrapolation method shows that modified K-NN in criteria of goodness of fit, root mean square error, percentage of volume of error and correlation has had performance improvement 45% , 59% and 17% respectively. These results approve necessity of applying mentioned approaches to derive more accurate forecasts.

  19. Virtual Box

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Hilary; Skov, Mikael B.; Stougaard, Malthe

    2007-01-01

    . This paper reports on the design, implementation and initial evaluation of Virtual Box. Virtual Box attempts to create a physical and engaging context in order to support reciprocal interactions with expressive content. An implemented version of Virtual Box is evaluated in a location-aware environment...

  20. Forecasting metal prices: Do forecasters herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierdzioch, C.; Rulke, J. C.; Stadtmann, G.

    2013-01-01

    We analyze more than 20,000 forecasts of nine metal prices at four different forecast horizons. We document that forecasts are heterogeneous and report that anti-herding appears to be a source of this heterogeneity. Forecaster anti-herding reflects strategic interactions among forecasters...

  1. Forecast Method of Solar Irradiance with Just-In-Time Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suzuki, Takanobu; Goto, Yusuke; Terazono, Takahiro; Wakao, Shinji; Oozeki, Takashi

    PV power output mainly depends on the solar irradiance which is affected by various meteorological factors. So, it is required to predict solar irradiance in the future for the efficient operation of PV systems. In this paper, we develop a novel approach for solar irradiance forecast, in which we introduce to combine the black-box model (JIT Modeling) with the physical model (GPV data). We investigate the predictive accuracy of solar irradiance over wide controlled-area of each electric power company by utilizing the measured data on the 44 observation points throughout Japan offered by JMA and the 64 points around Kanto by NEDO. Finally, we propose the application forecast method of solar irradiance to the point which is difficulty in compiling the database. And we consider the influence of different GPV default time on solar irradiance prediction.

  2. Energy forecast. Final report; Energiudsigten. Slutrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    2010-04-15

    A number of instruments, i.e. Internet, media campaigns, boxes displaying electricity prices (SEE1) and spot contract has been tested for households to shift their electricity consumption to times when prices are low. Of the implemented media campaigns, only the daily viewing of Energy forecast on TV had an impact. Consumers gained greater knowledge of electricity prices and electricity consumption loads, but only showed little interest in shifting electricity consumption. However, a measurable effect appeared at night with the group that had both concluded a spot contract and received an SEE1. These factors increase the awareness of the price of electricity and the possibility of shifting electricity consumption. (Energy 10)

  3. Time-series modeling: applications to long-term finfish monitoring data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bireley, L.E.

    1985-01-01

    The growing concern and awareness that developed during the 1970's over the effects that industry had on the environment caused the electric utility industry in particular to develop monitoring programs. These programs generate long-term series of data that are not very amenable to classical normal-theory statistical analysis. The monitoring data collected from three finfish programs (impingement, trawl and seine) at the Millstone Nuclear Power Station were typical of such series and thus were used to develop methodology that used the full extent of the information in the series. The basis of the methodology was classic Box-Jenkins time-series modeling; however, the models also included deterministic components that involved flow, season and time as predictor variables. Time entered into the models as harmonic regression terms. Of the 32 models fitted to finfish catch data, 19 were found to account for more than 70% of the historical variation. The models were than used to forecast finfish catches a year in advance and comparisons were made to actual data. Usually the confidence intervals associated with the forecasts encompassed most of the observed data. The technique can provide the basis for intervention analysis in future impact assessments

  4. Time series analysis of gold production in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muda, Nora; Hoon, Lee Yuen

    2012-05-01

    Gold is a soft, malleable, bright yellow metallic element and unaffected by air or most reagents. It is highly valued as an asset or investment commodity and is extensively used in jewellery, industrial application, dentistry and medical applications. In Malaysia, gold mining is limited in several areas such as Pahang, Kelantan, Terengganu, Johor and Sarawak. The main purpose of this case study is to obtain a suitable model for the production of gold in Malaysia. The model can also be used to predict the data of Malaysia's gold production in the future. Box-Jenkins time series method was used to perform time series analysis with the following steps: identification, estimation, diagnostic checking and forecasting. In addition, the accuracy of prediction is tested using mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). From the analysis, the ARIMA (3,1,1) model was found to be the best fitted model with MAPE equals to 3.704%, indicating the prediction is very accurate. Hence, this model can be used for forecasting. This study is expected to help the private and public sectors to understand the gold production scenario and later plan the gold mining activities in Malaysia.

  5. Production control in HTGR fuel rod fabrication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, D.J.; Bailey, M.

    1979-06-01

    Purpose of this report was (1) to determine which techniques (Kalman Filter, weighted least squares, Shewhart control chart) are capable of detecting drift or step changes earliest in a manufacturing process, and (2) what method would work well in maintaining the manufacturing process at an acceptable level of quality. To solve part (1) simulation studies were performed for various test cases of interest. No single technique was superior in all of these cases, but the Kalman Filter appeared to be more robust to various process changes. The weighted least squares did a good job when the weight was near unity (0.9977) and failed when the weight was small (0.63). The Shewhart control chart is better for detecting step changes than for trends. Several methods wre compared to try to answer part (2). In this report the model building and forecasting was done using the methods of Box and Jenkins

  6. 46 CFR 111.81-1 - Outlet boxes and junction boxes; general.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... fixture, wiring device, or similar item, including each separately installed connection and junction box... used. (d) As appropriate, each outlet-box or junction-box installation must meet the following...

  7. Forecasting incidence of dengue in Rajasthan, using time series analyses.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatnagar, Sunil; Lal, Vivek; Gupta, Shiv D; Gupta, Om P

    2012-01-01

    To develop a prediction model for dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) using time series data over the past decade in Rajasthan and to forecast monthly DF/DHF incidence for 2011. Seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model was used for statistical modeling. During January 2001 to December 2010, the reported DF/DHF cases showed a cyclical pattern with seasonal variation. SARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1) 12 model had the lowest normalized Bayesian information criteria (BIC) of 9.426 and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 263.361 and appeared to be the best model. The proportion of variance explained by the model was 54.3%. Adequacy of the model was established through Ljung-Box test (Q statistic 4.910 and P-value 0.996), which showed no significant correlation between residuals at different lag times. The forecast for the year 2011 showed a seasonal peak in the month of October with an estimated 546 cases. Application of SARIMA model may be useful for forecast of cases and impending outbreaks of DF/DHF and other infectious diseases, which exhibit seasonal pattern.

  8. Organizational Learning Supported by Machine Learning Models Coupled with General Explanation Methods: A Case of B2B Sales Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohanec Marko

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Background and Purpose: The process of business to business (B2B sales forecasting is a complex decision-making process. There are many approaches to support this process, but mainly it is still based on the subjective judgment of a decision-maker. The problem of B2B sales forecasting can be modeled as a classification problem. However, top performing machine learning (ML models are black boxes and do not support transparent reasoning. The purpose of this research is to develop an organizational model using ML model coupled with general explanation methods. The goal is to support the decision-maker in the process of B2B sales forecasting.

  9. Predicting the Heat Consumption in District Heating Systems using Meteorological Forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg, orlov 31.07.2008; Madsen, Henrik

    that meteorological forecasts are available on-line. Such a service has recently been introduced by the Danish Meteorological Institute. However, actual meteorological forecasts has not been available for the work described here. Assuming the climate to be known the mean absolute relative prediction error for 72 hour......Methods for on-line prediction of heat consumption in district heating systems hour by hour for horizons up to 72 hours are considered in this report. Data from the district heating system Vestegnens Kraftvarmeselskab I/S is used in the investigation. During the development it has been assumed......, this is somewhat contrary to practice. The work presented is a demonstration of the value of the so called gray box approach where theoretical knowledge about the system under consideration is combined with information from measurements performed on the system in order to obtain a mathematical description...

  10. Channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanabe, Akira.

    1993-01-01

    In a channel box of a BWR type reactor, protruding pads are disposed in axial position on the lateral side of a channel box opposing to a control rod and facing the outer side portion of the control rod in a reactor core loaded state. In the initial loading stage of fuel assemblies, channel fasteners and spacer pads are abutted against each other in the upper portion between the channel boxes sandwiching the control rod therebetween. Further, in the lower portion, a gap as a channel for the movement of the control rod is ensured by the support of fuel support metals. If the channel box is bent toward the control rod along with reactor operation, the pads are abutted against each other to always ensure the gap through which the control rod can move easily. Further, when the pads are brought into contact with each other, the bending deformation of the channel box is corrected by urging to each other. Thus, the control rod can always be moved smoothly to attain reactor safety operation. (N.H.)

  11. Air tight electrical box

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pringle, C.G.

    1990-08-14

    An air-impervious electrical box to facilitate air sealing a house comprises an integral, rigid box body having a continuous flange, integral with the body, circumscribing and outwardly extending from the sides of the body. This flange is rearwardly positioned behind the front edges of the sides of the body a predetermined distance so that the electrical box may be secured to framing by nailing through the flange. Drywall is then secured to the frame on top of and adjecent to the flange. Such box eliminates the necessity for solid backing and minimizes passage of air through the box and space between the drywall and the box.

  12. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Ruelke

    2013-01-01

    We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-)herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding) of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from) t......) the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time....

  13. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part II: Ensemble forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In part I of this study, the operational flood forecasting system in Bavaria and an approach to identify and quantify forecast uncertainty was introduced. The approach is split into the calculation of an empirical 'overall error' from archived forecasts and the calculation of an empirical 'model error' based on hydrometeorological forecast tests, where rainfall observations were used instead of forecasts. The 'model error' can especially in upstream catchments where forecast uncertainty is strongly dependent on the current predictability of the atrmosphere be superimposed on the spread of a hydrometeorological ensemble forecast. In Bavaria, two meteorological ensemble prediction systems are currently tested for operational use: the 16-member COSMO-LEPS forecast and a poor man's ensemble composed of DWD GME, DWD Cosmo-EU, NCEP GFS, Aladin-Austria, MeteoSwiss Cosmo-7. The determination of the overall forecast uncertainty is dependent on the catchment characteristics: 1. Upstream catchment with high influence of weather forecast a) A hydrological ensemble forecast is calculated using each of the meteorological forecast members as forcing. b) Corresponding to the characteristics of the meteorological ensemble forecast, each resulting forecast hydrograph can be regarded as equally likely. c) The 'model error' distribution, with parameters dependent on hydrological case and lead time, is added to each forecast timestep of each ensemble member d) For each forecast timestep, the overall (i.e. over all 'model error' distribution of each ensemble member) error distribution is calculated e) From this distribution, the uncertainty range on a desired level (here: the 10% and 90% percentile) is extracted and drawn as forecast envelope. f) As the mean or median of an ensemble forecast does not necessarily exhibit meteorologically sound temporal evolution, a single hydrological forecast termed 'lead forecast' is chosen and shown in addition to the uncertainty bounds. This can be

  14. Failure and reliability prediction by support vector machines regression of time series data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chagas Moura, Marcio das; Zio, Enrico; Lins, Isis Didier; Droguett, Enrique

    2011-01-01

    Support Vector Machines (SVMs) are kernel-based learning methods, which have been successfully adopted for regression problems. However, their use in reliability applications has not been widely explored. In this paper, a comparative analysis is presented in order to evaluate the SVM effectiveness in forecasting time-to-failure and reliability of engineered components based on time series data. The performance on literature case studies of SVM regression is measured against other advanced learning methods such as the Radial Basis Function, the traditional MultiLayer Perceptron model, Box-Jenkins autoregressive-integrated-moving average and the Infinite Impulse Response Locally Recurrent Neural Networks. The comparison shows that in the analyzed cases, SVM outperforms or is comparable to other techniques. - Highlights: → Realistic modeling of reliability demands complex mathematical formulations. → SVM is proper when the relation input/output is unknown or very costly to be obtained. → Results indicate the potential of SVM for reliability time series prediction. → Reliability estimates support the establishment of adequate maintenance strategies.

  15. Economic feasibility of biogas production in swine farms using time series analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Luis Rockenbach

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT: This study aimed to measure the economic feasibility and the time needed to return capital invested for the installation of a swine manure treatment system, these values originated the sale of carbon credits and/or of compensation of electric energy in swine farms, using the Box-Jenkins forecast models. It was found that the use of biogas is a viable option in a large scale with machines that operate daily for 10h or more, being the return period between 70 to 80 months. Time series analysis models are important to anticipate the series under study behavior, providing the swine breeder/investor means to reduce the financial investment risk as well as helping to decrease the production costs. Moreover, this process can be seen as another source of income and enable the breeder to be self-sufficient in the continuous supply of electric energy, which is very valuable nowadays considering that breeders are now increasingly using various technologies.

  16. RADON CONCENTRATION TIME SERIES MODELING AND APPLICATION DISCUSSION.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stránský, V; Thinová, L

    2017-11-01

    In the year 2010 a continual radon measurement was established at Mladeč Caves in the Czech Republic using a continual radon monitor RADIM3A. In order to model radon time series in the years 2010-15, the Box-Jenkins Methodology, often used in econometrics, was applied. Because of the behavior of radon concentrations (RCs), a seasonal integrated, autoregressive moving averages model with exogenous variables (SARIMAX) has been chosen to model the measured time series. This model uses the time series seasonality, previously acquired values and delayed atmospheric parameters, to forecast RC. The developed model for RC time series is called regARIMA(5,1,3). Model residuals could be retrospectively compared with seismic evidence of local or global earthquakes, which occurred during the RCs measurement. This technique enables us to asses if continuously measured RC could serve an earthquake precursor. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. House Price Forecasts, Forecaster Herding, and the Recent Crisis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Pierdzioch

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available We used the Wall Street Journal survey data for the period 2006–2012 to analyze whether forecasts of house prices and housing starts provide evidence of (anti-herding of forecasters. Forecasts are consistent with herding (anti-herding of forecasters if forecasts are biased towards (away from the consensus forecast. We found that anti-herding is prevalent among forecasters of house prices. We also report that, following the recent crisis, the prevalence of forecaster anti-herding seems to have changed over time.

  18. LASSCI2009.2: layered earthquake rupture forecast model for central Italy, submitted to the CSEP project

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Francesco Visini

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP selected Italy as a testing region for probabilistic earthquake forecast models in October, 2008. The model we have submitted for the two medium-term forecast periods of 5 and 10 years (from 2009 is a time-dependent, geologically based earthquake rupture forecast that is defined for central Italy only (11-15˚ E; 41-45˚ N. The model took into account three separate layers of seismogenic sources: background seismicity; seismotectonic provinces; and individual faults that can produce major earthquakes (seismogenic boxes. For CSEP testing purposes, the background seismicity layer covered a range of magnitudes from 5.0 to 5.3 and the seismicity rates were obtained by truncated Gutenberg-Richter relationships for cells centered on the CSEP grid. Then the seismotectonic provinces layer returned the expected rates of medium-to-large earthquakes following a traditional Cornell-type approach. Finally, for the seismogenic boxes layer, the rates were based on the geometry and kinematics of the faults that different earthquake recurrence models have been assigned to, ranging from pure Gutenberg-Richter behavior to characteristic events, with the intermediate behavior named as the hybrid model. The results for different magnitude ranges highlight the contribution of each of the three layers to the total computation. The expected rates for M >6.0 on April 1, 2009 (thus computed before the L'Aquila, 2009, MW= 6.3 earthquake are of particular interest. They showed local maxima in the two seismogenic-box sources of Paganica and Sulmona, one of which was activated by the L'Aquila earthquake of April 6, 2009. Earthquake rates as of August 1, 2009, (now under test also showed a maximum close to the Sulmona source for MW ~6.5; significant seismicity rates (10-4 to 10-3 in 5 years for destructive events (magnitude up to 7.0 were located in other individual sources identified as being capable of such

  19. Putting Media Literacy Education in Perspective of Theory of "Participatory Culture" : The case of Henry Jenkins (2009) Confronting the Challenges of Participatory Culture

    OpenAIRE

    Sunagawa, Seiji

    2010-01-01

    In this report, I took a viewpoint of the "participatory culture" of Henry Jenkins (2009) into account and argued what the literacy of the digital media. I clarified what kind of culture "participatory culture" is and what one participated with how. The support system between peers in the "participatory culture", have the community which can feel relieved where the system letting each other take an equal viewpoint. I made clear that it was a problem of the media literacy education how to buil...

  20. Coastal observing and forecasting system for the German Bight – estimates of hydrophysical states

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Petersen

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available A coastal observing system for Northern and Arctic Seas (COSYNA aims at construction of a long-term observatory for the German part of the North Sea, elements of which will be deployed as prototype modules in Arctic coastal waters. At present a coastal prediction system deployed in the area of the German Bight integrates near real-time measurements with numerical models in a pre-operational way and provides continuously state estimates and forecasts of coastal ocean state. The measurement suite contributing to the pre-operational set up includes in situ time series from stationary stations, a High-Frequency (HF radar system measuring surface currents, a FerryBox system and remote sensing data from satellites. The forecasting suite includes nested 3-D hydrodynamic models running in a data-assimilation mode, which are forced with up-to-date meteorological forecast data. This paper reviews the present status of the system and its recent upgrades focusing on developments in the field of coastal data assimilation. Model supported data analysis and state estimates are illustrated using HF radar and FerryBox observations as examples. A new method combining radial surface current measurements from a single HF radar with a priori information from a hydrodynamic model is presented, which optimally relates tidal ellipses parameters of the 2-D current field and the M2 phase and magnitude of the radials. The method presents a robust and helpful first step towards the implementation of a more sophisticated assimilation system and demonstrates that even using only radials from one station can substantially benefit state estimates for surface currents. Assimilation of FerryBox data based on an optimal interpolation approach using a Kalman filter with a stationary background covariance matrix derived from a preliminary model run which was validated against remote sensing and in situ data demonstrated the capabilities of the pre-operational system. Data

  1. Flood forecasting and uncertainty of precipitation forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kobold, Mira; Suselj, Kay

    2004-01-01

    The timely and accurate flood forecasting is essential for the reliable flood warning. The effectiveness of flood warning is dependent on the forecast accuracy of certain physical parameters, such as the peak magnitude of the flood, its timing, location and duration. The conceptual rainfall - runoff models enable the estimation of these parameters and lead to useful operational forecasts. The accurate rainfall is the most important input into hydrological models. The input for the rainfall can be real time rain-gauges data, or weather radar data, or meteorological forecasted precipitation. The torrential nature of streams and fast runoff are characteristic for the most of the Slovenian rivers. Extensive damage is caused almost every year- by rainstorms affecting different regions of Slovenia' The lag time between rainfall and runoff is very short for Slovenian territory and on-line data are used only for now casting. Forecasted precipitations are necessary for hydrological forecast for some days ahead. ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) gives general forecast for several days ahead while more detailed precipitation data with limited area ALADIN/Sl model are available for two days ahead. There is a certain degree of uncertainty using such precipitation forecasts based on meteorological models. The variability of precipitation is very high in Slovenia and the uncertainty of ECMWF predicted precipitation is very large for Slovenian territory. ECMWF model can predict precipitation events correctly, but underestimates amount of precipitation in general The average underestimation is about 60% for Slovenian region. The predictions of limited area ALADIN/Si model up to; 48 hours ahead show greater applicability in hydrological forecasting. The hydrological models are sensitive to precipitation input. The deviation of runoff is much bigger than the rainfall deviation. Runoff to rainfall error fraction is about 1.6. If spatial and time distribution

  2. Forecasting the Reference Evapotranspiration Using Time Series Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Zare Abyaneh

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Reference evapotranspiration is one of the most important factors in irrigation timing and field management. Moreover, reference evapotranspiration forecasting can play a vital role in future developments. Therefore in this study, the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA model was used to forecast the reference evapotranspiration time series in the Esfahan, Semnan, Shiraz, Kerman, and Yazd synoptic stations. Materials and Methods: In the present study in all stations (characteristics of the synoptic stations are given in Table 1, the meteorological data, including mean, maximum and minimum air temperature, relative humidity, dry-and wet-bulb temperature, dew-point temperature, wind speed, precipitation, air vapor pressure and sunshine hours were collected from the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO for the 41 years from 1965 to 2005. The FAO Penman-Monteith equation was used to calculate the monthly reference evapotranspiration in the five synoptic stations and the evapotranspiration time series were formed. The unit root test was used to identify whether the time series was stationary, then using the Box-Jenkins method, seasonal ARIMA models were applied to the sample data. Table 1. The geographical location and climate conditions of the synoptic stations Station\tGeographical location\tAltitude (m\tMean air temperature (°C\tMean precipitation (mm\tClimate, according to the De Martonne index classification Longitude (E\tLatitude (N Annual\tMin. and Max. Esfahan\t51° 40'\t32° 37'\t1550.4\t16.36\t9.4-23.3\t122\tArid Semnan\t53° 33'\t35° 35'\t1130.8\t18.0\t12.4-23.8\t140\tArid Shiraz\t52° 36'\t29° 32'\t1484\t18.0\t10.2-25.9\t324\tSemi-arid Kerman\t56° 58'\t30° 15'\t1753.8\t15.6\t6.7-24.6\t142\tArid Yazd\t54° 17'\t31° 54'\t1237.2\t19.2\t11.8-26.0\t61\tArid Results and Discussion: The monthly meteorological data were used as input for the Ref-ET software and monthly reference

  3. Predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation using automatic time series forecasting methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papacharalampous, Georgia; Tyralis, Hristos; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris

    2018-02-01

    We investigate the predictability of monthly temperature and precipitation by applying automatic univariate time series forecasting methods to a sample of 985 40-year-long monthly temperature and 1552 40-year-long monthly precipitation time series. The methods include a naïve one based on the monthly values of the last year, as well as the random walk (with drift), AutoRegressive Fractionally Integrated Moving Average (ARFIMA), exponential smoothing state-space model with Box-Cox transformation, ARMA errors, Trend and Seasonal components (BATS), simple exponential smoothing, Theta and Prophet methods. Prophet is a recently introduced model inspired by the nature of time series forecasted at Facebook and has not been applied to hydrometeorological time series before, while the use of random walk, BATS, simple exponential smoothing and Theta is rare in hydrology. The methods are tested in performing multi-step ahead forecasts for the last 48 months of the data. We further investigate how different choices of handling the seasonality and non-normality affect the performance of the models. The results indicate that: (a) all the examined methods apart from the naïve and random walk ones are accurate enough to be used in long-term applications; (b) monthly temperature and precipitation can be forecasted to a level of accuracy which can barely be improved using other methods; (c) the externally applied classical seasonal decomposition results mostly in better forecasts compared to the automatic seasonal decomposition used by the BATS and Prophet methods; and (d) Prophet is competitive, especially when it is combined with externally applied classical seasonal decomposition.

  4. Medical and Safety Reforms in Boxing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jordan, Barry D.

    1988-01-01

    The continued existence of boxing as an accepted sport in civilized society has been long debated. The position of the American Medical Association (AMA) has evolved from promoting increased safety and medical reform to recommending total abolition of both amateur and professional boxing. In response to the AMA opposition to boxing, the boxing community has attempted to increase the safeguards in amateur and professional boxing. The United States of America Amateur Boxing Federation, which is the national regulatory agency for all amateur boxing in the United States, has taken several actions to prevent the occurrence of acute brain injury and is currently conducting epidemiologic studies to assess the long-term neuropsychologic consequences of amateur boxing. In professional boxing, state regulatory agencies such as the New York State Athletic Commission have introduced several medical interventions to prevent and reduce neurologic injury. The lack of a national regulatory agency to govern professional boxing has stimulated the formation of the Association of Boxing Commissions and potential legislation for the federal regulation of professional boxing by a federally chartered organization called the United States Boxing Commission. The AMA's opposition to boxing and the medical and safety reforms implemented by the proponents of boxing are discussed. PMID:3385788

  5. Glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Morita, Atsushi

    1990-01-01

    Wire rope earthquake proof supports having sufficient vibration transmitting and attenuating property are disposed between a fixed floor and the bottom of a glove box in order to improve earthquake proofness of the glove box. The vertical weight of the glove box is supported by support legs slidable on the surface of the fixed floor. The wire rope earthquake-proof supports when undergoing a load, cause stretching and rolling against the external force such as earthquakes, and provide flexible spring support and cause a great damping due to friction with strands. Further, the vertical weight is always supported by the support legs and, when a horizontal weight is applied, the glove box slides on the fixed floor freely with slidable members. In this way, stress concentration generated at joint portions of columns and beams can be moderated greatly and earthquake proofness can be improved. Further, quality control and maintenance for the device is almost unnecessary owing to excellent fatigue-resistant characteristics of the wire rope earthquake proof supports. (N.H.)

  6. Bento Boxes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasio, Cindy

    2010-01-01

    Bento boxes are common objects in Japanese culture, designed to hold enough lunch for one person. They have individual compartments and sometimes multiple tiers for rice, vegetables, and other side dishes. They are made of materials ranging from wood, cloth, aluminum, or plastic. In general, the greater the number of foods, the better the box is…

  7. Estimation and control in HTGR fuel rod fabrication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, D.J.; Bailey, M.J.

    1980-01-01

    A control algorithm has been derived for a HTGR Fuel Rod Fabrication Process utilizing the method of Box and Jenkins. The estimator is a Kalman filter and is compared with a Least Square estimator and a standard control chart. The effects of system delays are presented

  8. Forecast Combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Timmermann, Allan G

    2005-01-01

    Forecast combinations have frequently been found in empirical studies to produce better forecasts on average than methods based on the ex-ante best individual forecasting model. Moreover, simple combinations that ignore correlations between forecast errors often dominate more refined combination schemes aimed at estimating the theoretically optimal combination weights. In this paper we analyse theoretically the factors that determine the advantages from combining forecasts (for example, the d...

  9. Forecaster Behaviour and Bias in Macroeconomic Forecasts

    OpenAIRE

    Roy Batchelor

    2007-01-01

    This paper documents the presence of systematic bias in the real GDP and inflation forecasts of private sector forecasters in the G7 economies in the years 1990–2005. The data come from the monthly Consensus Economics forecasting service, and bias is measured and tested for significance using parametric fixed effect panel regressions and nonparametric tests on accuracy ranks. We examine patterns across countries and forecasters to establish whether the bias reflects the inefficient use of i...

  10. Post-processing of multi-model ensemble river discharge forecasts using censored EMOS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hemri, Stephan; Lisniak, Dmytro; Klein, Bastian

    2014-05-01

    When forecasting water levels and river discharge, ensemble weather forecasts are used as meteorological input to hydrologic process models. As hydrologic models are imperfect and the input ensembles tend to be biased and underdispersed, the output ensemble forecasts for river runoff typically are biased and underdispersed, too. Thus, statistical post-processing is required in order to achieve calibrated and sharp predictions. Standard post-processing methods such as Ensemble Model Output Statistics (EMOS) that have their origins in meteorological forecasting are now increasingly being used in hydrologic applications. Here we consider two sub-catchments of River Rhine, for which the forecasting system of the Federal Institute of Hydrology (BfG) uses runoff data that are censored below predefined thresholds. To address this methodological challenge, we develop a censored EMOS method that is tailored to such data. The censored EMOS forecast distribution can be understood as a mixture of a point mass at the censoring threshold and a continuous part based on a truncated normal distribution. Parameter estimates of the censored EMOS model are obtained by minimizing the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) over the training dataset. Model fitting on Box-Cox transformed data allows us to take account of the positive skewness of river discharge distributions. In order to achieve realistic forecast scenarios over an entire range of lead-times, there is a need for multivariate extensions. To this end, we smooth the marginal parameter estimates over lead-times. In order to obtain realistic scenarios of discharge evolution over time, the marginal distributions have to be linked with each other. To this end, the multivariate dependence structure can either be adopted from the raw ensemble like in Ensemble Copula Coupling (ECC), or be estimated from observations in a training period. The censored EMOS model has been applied to multi-model ensemble forecasts issued on a

  11. Forecast combinations

    OpenAIRE

    Aiolfi, Marco; Capistrán, Carlos; Timmermann, Allan

    2010-01-01

    We consider combinations of subjective survey forecasts and model-based forecasts from linear and non-linear univariate specifications as well as multivariate factor-augmented models. Empirical results suggest that a simple equal-weighted average of survey forecasts outperform the best model-based forecasts for a majority of macroeconomic variables and forecast horizons. Additional improvements can in some cases be gained by using a simple equal-weighted average of survey and model-based fore...

  12. An Analysis of the Defense Acquisition Strategy for Unmanned Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-03-01

    According to a report by Jenkins & Vasigh (2013), government deregulation of airspace would result in an economic impact of $13.6 billion in the...forecast depends, including liability insurance . Their report estimates that every year the FAA delays integration of UAS into the national airspace

  13. Changes in position and quality of preferred nest box: effects on nest box use by laying hens

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Riber, Anja Brinch; Nielsen, Birte L.

    2013-01-01

    Using laying hens, we investigated whether position of a nest box, both within the pen and relative to other nest boxes, influenced the preference for a nest box, and how a sudden and marked change to the preferred box influenced the use of nest boxes by the hens. Groups (n=12) of 15 Isa Warren...... hens were housed in pens, each with five identical nest boxes in different positions: Two single (in a corner or not) and a triplet of nest boxes (one of which in a corner). The use of nest boxes was determined by the number of eggs laid daily in each box. Three experiments, each lasting 10 days, were...... carried out. First, the undisturbed use of each of the nest box types was investigated, and a strong preference (Peggs laid there. Second, each of the hen groups was moved to another pen allocated at random, and where...

  14. [Boxing: traumatology and prevention].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cabanis, Emmanuel-Alain; Iba-Zizen, Marie-Thérèse; Perez, Georges; Senegas, Xavier; Furgoni, Julien; Pineau, Jean-Claude; Louquet, Jean-Louis; Henrion, Roger

    2010-10-01

    In 1986, a surgeon who, as an amateur boxer himself was concerned with boxers' health, approached a pioneering Parisian neuroimaging unit. Thus began a study in close cooperation with the French Boxing Federation, spanning 25 years. In a first series of 52 volunteer boxers (13 amateurs and 39 professionals), during which MRI gradually replaced computed tomography, ten risk factors were identified, which notably included boxing style: only one of 40 "stylists" with a good boxing technique had cortical atrophy (4.5 %), compared to 15 % of "sloggers". Changes to the French Boxing Federation rules placed the accent on medical prevention. The second series, of 247 boxers (81 amateurs and 266 professionals), showed a clear improvement, as lesions were suspected in 14 individuals, of which only 4 (1.35 %) were probably due to boxing. The third and fourth series were part of a protocol called "Brain-Boxing-Ageing", which included 76 boxers (11 having suffered KOs) and 120 MRI scans, with reproducible CT and MRI acquisitions (9 sequences with 1.5 T then 3 T, and CT). MRI anomalies secondary to boxing were found in 11 % of amateurs and 38 % of professionals (atrophy, high vascular T2 signal areas, 2 cases of post-KO subdural bleeding). CT revealed sinus damage in 13 % of the amateurs and 19 % of the professionals. The risk of acute and chronic facial and brain damage was underline, along with detailed precautionary measures (organization of bouts, role of the referee and ringside doctor, and application of French Boxing Federation rules).

  15. The foundations of modern time series analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Mills, Terence C

    2011-01-01

    This book develops the analysis of Time Series from its formal beginnings in the 1890s through to the publication of Box and Jenkins' watershed publication in 1970, showing how these methods laid the foundations for the modern techniques of Time Series analysis that are in use today.

  16. Estimation of pure autoregressive vector models for revenue series ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper aims at applying multivariate approach to Box and Jenkins univariate time series modeling to three vector series. General Autoregressive Vector Models with time varying coefficients are estimated. The first vector is a response vector, while others are predictor vectors. By matrix expansion each vector, whether ...

  17. Operational hydrological forecasting in Bavaria. Part I: Forecast uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ehret, U.; Vogelbacher, A.; Moritz, K.; Laurent, S.; Meyer, I.; Haag, I.

    2009-04-01

    In Bavaria, operational flood forecasting has been established since the disastrous flood of 1999. Nowadays, forecasts based on rainfall information from about 700 raingauges and 600 rivergauges are calculated and issued for nearly 100 rivergauges. With the added experience of the 2002 and 2005 floods, awareness grew that the standard deterministic forecast, neglecting the uncertainty associated with each forecast is misleading, creating a false feeling of unambiguousness. As a consequence, a system to identify, quantify and communicate the sources and magnitude of forecast uncertainty has been developed, which will be presented in part I of this study. In this system, the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts plays a key role which will be presented in part II. Developing the system, several constraints stemming from the range of hydrological regimes and operational requirements had to be met: Firstly, operational time constraints obviate the variation of all components of the modeling chain as would be done in a full Monte Carlo simulation. Therefore, an approach was chosen where only the most relevant sources of uncertainty were dynamically considered while the others were jointly accounted for by static error distributions from offline analysis. Secondly, the dominant sources of uncertainty vary over the wide range of forecasted catchments: In alpine headwater catchments, typically of a few hundred square kilometers in size, rainfall forecast uncertainty is the key factor for forecast uncertainty, with a magnitude dynamically changing with the prevailing predictability of the atmosphere. In lowland catchments encompassing several thousands of square kilometers, forecast uncertainty in the desired range (usually up to two days) is mainly dependent on upstream gauge observation quality, routing and unpredictable human impact such as reservoir operation. The determination of forecast uncertainty comprised the following steps: a) From comparison of gauge

  18. Short-term wind power combined forecasting based on error forecast correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liang, Zhengtang; Liang, Jun; Wang, Chengfu; Dong, Xiaoming; Miao, Xiaofeng

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • The correlation relationships of short-term wind power forecast errors are studied. • The correlation analysis method of the multi-step forecast errors is proposed. • A strategy selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. • Several novel combined models based on error forecast correction are proposed. • The combined models have improved the short-term wind power forecasting accuracy. - Abstract: With the increasing contribution of wind power to electric power grids, accurate forecasting of short-term wind power has become particularly valuable for wind farm operators, utility operators and customers. The aim of this study is to investigate the interdependence structure of errors in short-term wind power forecasting that is crucial for building error forecast models with regression learning algorithms to correct predictions and improve final forecasting accuracy. In this paper, several novel short-term wind power combined forecasting models based on error forecast correction are proposed in the one-step ahead, continuous and discontinuous multi-step ahead forecasting modes. First, the correlation relationships of forecast errors of the autoregressive model, the persistence method and the support vector machine model in various forecasting modes have been investigated to determine whether the error forecast models can be established by regression learning algorithms. Second, according to the results of the correlation analysis, the range of input variables is defined and an efficient strategy for selecting the input variables for the error forecast models is proposed. Finally, several combined forecasting models are proposed, in which the error forecast models are based on support vector machine/extreme learning machine, and correct the short-term wind power forecast values. The data collected from a wind farm in Hebei Province, China, are selected as a case study to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed

  19. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Puechl, K.H.

    1975-01-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis. (author)

  20. Fuel cycle forecasting - there are forecasts and there are forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Puechl, K H

    1975-12-01

    The FORECAST-NUCLEAR computer program described recognizes that forecasts are made to answer a variety of questions and, therefore, that no single forecast is universally appropriate. Also, it recognizes that no two individuals will completely agree as to the input data that are appropriate for obtaining an answer to even a single simple question. Accordingly, the program was written from a utilitarian standpoint: it allows working with multiple projections; data inputting is simple to allow game-playing; computation time is short to minimize the cost of 'what if' assessements; and detail is internally carried to allow meaningful analysis.

  1. Microclimate boxes for panel paintings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wadum, Jørgen

    1998-01-01

    The use of microclimate boxes to protect vulnerable panel paintings is, therefore, not a new phenomenon of the past two or three decades. Rather, it has been a concern for conservators and curators to protect these objects of art at home and in transit since the end of the nineteenth century....... The increased number of travelling exhibitions in recent years has heightened the need to protect paintings during circulation (Thomson 1961; Mecklenburg 1991). The use and design of microclimate boxes have been evolving since 1892. These boxes may be divided into three broad groups: those using an active...... buffer material to stabilize the internal RH, a more recent box containing no added buffer material, and, in recent times, boxes with an altered gas content. Another concern is the appearance (aesthetics) of the box....

  2. Boxing-related head injuries.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jayarao, Mayur; Chin, Lawrence S; Cantu, Robert C

    2010-10-01

    Fatalities in boxing are most often due to traumatic brain injury that occurs in the ring. In the past 30 years, significant improvements in ringside and medical equipment, safety, and regulations have resulted in a dramatic reduction in the fatality rate. Nonetheless, the rate of boxing-related head injuries, particularly concussions, remains unknown, due in large part to its variability in clinical presentation. Furthermore, the significance of repeat concussions sustained when boxing is just now being understood. In this article, we identify the clinical manifestations, pathophysiology, and management of boxing-related head injuries, and discuss preventive strategies to reduce head injuries sustained by boxers.

  3. Exergaming boxing versus heavy-bag boxing: are these equipotent for individuals with spinal cord injury?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mat Rosly, Maziah; Mat Rosly, Hadi; Hasnan, Nazirah; Davis, Glen M; Husain, Ruby

    2017-08-01

    Current strategies for increased physical activity and exercise in individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI) face many challenges with regards to maintaining their continuity of participation. Barriers cited often include problems with accessing facilities, mundane, monotonous or boring exercises and expensive equipment that is often not adapted for wheelchair users. To compare the physiological responses and user preferences between conventional heavy-bag boxing against a novel form of video game boxing, known as exergaming boxing. Cross-sectional study. Exercise laboratory setting in a university medical center. Seventeen participants with SCI were recruited, of which sixteen were male and only one female. Their mean age was 35.6±10.2 years. All of them performed a 15-minute physical exercise session of exergaming and heavy-bag boxing in a sitting position. The study assessed physiological responses in terms of oxygen consumption, metabolic equivalent (MET) and energy expenditure between exergaming and heavy-bag boxing derived from open-circuit spirometry. Participants also rated their perceived exertion using Borg's category-ratio ratings of perceived exertion. Both exergaming (MET: 4.3±1.0) and heavy-bag boxing (MET: 4.4±1.0) achieved moderate exercise intensities in these participants with SCI. Paired t-test revealed no significant differences (P>0.05, Cohen's d: 0.02-0.49) in the physiological or perceived exertional responses between the two modalities of boxing. Post session user survey reported all the participants found exergaming boxing more enjoyable. Exergaming boxing, was able to produce equipotent physiological responses as conventional heavy-bag boxing. The intensity of both exercise modalities achieved recommended intensities for health and fitness benefits. Exergaming boxing have the potential to provide an enjoyable, self-competitive environment for moderate-vigorous exercise even at the comfort of their homes.

  4. Flood Forecasting Based on TIGGE Precipitation Ensemble Forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jinyin Ye

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available TIGGE (THORPEX International Grand Global Ensemble was a major part of the THORPEX (Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment. It integrates ensemble precipitation products from all the major forecast centers in the world and provides systematic evaluation on the multimodel ensemble prediction system. Development of meteorologic-hydrologic coupled flood forecasting model and early warning model based on the TIGGE precipitation ensemble forecast can provide flood probability forecast, extend the lead time of the flood forecast, and gain more time for decision-makers to make the right decision. In this study, precipitation ensemble forecast products from ECMWF, NCEP, and CMA are used to drive distributed hydrologic model TOPX. We focus on Yi River catchment and aim to build a flood forecast and early warning system. The results show that the meteorologic-hydrologic coupled model can satisfactorily predict the flow-process of four flood events. The predicted occurrence time of peak discharges is close to the observations. However, the magnitude of the peak discharges is significantly different due to various performances of the ensemble prediction systems. The coupled forecasting model can accurately predict occurrence of the peak time and the corresponding risk probability of peak discharge based on the probability distribution of peak time and flood warning, which can provide users a strong theoretical foundation and valuable information as a promising new approach.

  5. Previsão do preço dos principais grãos produzidos no Rio Grande do Sul Forcasting the price of major grains produced in Rio Grande do Sul

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Analice Marchezan

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Objetivou-se realizar previsões para o ano de 2007, referente ao preço das principais culturas das lavouras temporárias desenvolvidas no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul. Os dados-base da quantidade produzida dos principais grãos analisados foram a média anual, de 1995 a 2006, as previsões de preços, de janeiro de 1995 a dezembro de 2006. Para realização das previsões do preço das culturas de soja, arroz e milho no Estado do Rio Grande do Sul foi utilizada Metodologia Box & Jenkins. Para as culturas destacadas, a metodologia captou vários modelos significativos, mas por meiodos Critérios Penalizadores, AIC, SBC e Erro Quadrado Médio, escolheu-se o melhor modelo para cada série, sendo ideal o modelo ARIMA (0,1,2(0,1,0 para a soja; o modelo SARIMA(1,1,0(1,0,1 para o arroz e o modelo ARIMA (2,1,1(0,1,0 para o milho.The aim of this research was to make predictions for 2007, referring to the price of temporary crops developed in the Rio Grande do Sul state. The data-base of the amout produced of the major grain analyzed were the annual average1995 to 2006 and price produced, from January 1995 to December 2006. To accomplish the forecasts in relation to prices of soybean, rice and sweetcorn in RS state, it was used the Box & Jenkins methodology. To such cultivations, the methodoly showed many significant models, however, through the penalizing criterias, AIC e SBC, in addition to the square average error, it was possible to choose the best model for each serie, being the model ARIMA (0,1,2(0,1,0 to soybean; the model SARIMA (1,1,0(1,0,1 to rice and the model ARIMA (2,1,1(0,1,0 to sweetcorn.

  6. Invariant box-parameterization of neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiler, Thomas J.; Wagner, DJ

    1998-01-01

    The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing-matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements

  7. Forecasting Housing Approvals in Australia: Do Forecasters Herd?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stadtmann, Georg; Pierdzioch; Rülke

    2012-01-01

    Price trends in housing markets may reflect herding of market participants. A natural question is whether such herding, to the extent that it occurred, reflects herding in forecasts of professional forecasters. Using more than 6,000 forecasts of housing approvals for Australia, we did not find...

  8. First-aid boxes - Reminder

    CERN Multimedia

    GS Department

    2010-01-01

    With a view to ensuring optimum use of the first-aid boxes on the CERN site, we should like to remind you of various changes introduced in March 2009: The TSO of the buildings concerned is responsible for the first-aid boxes, including checking their contents.   First-aid boxes may be restocked ONLY at the CERN stores (SCEM No. 54.99.80). This is no longer possible at the Infirmary. The associated cost is charged to the Departments.   First-aid boxes should be used only for mild injuries. All other cases should be referred to the Medical Service Infirmary (Bldg. 57 – ground-floor, tel. 73802) between 8.00 a.m. and 5.30 p.m. or to the Fire and Rescue Service (tel. 74444). N.B.: This information does not apply to the red emergency first-aid boxes in the underground areas or to the emergency kits for use in the event of being splashed with hydrofluoric acid.

  9. Forecasting freight flows

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lyk-Jensen, Stéphanie

    2011-01-01

    Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...... constitute a valuable input to freight models for forecasting future capacity problems.......Trade patterns and transport markets are changing as a result of the growth and globalization of international trade, and forecasting future freight flow has to rely on trade forecasts. Forecasting freight flows is critical for matching infrastructure supply to demand and for assessing investment...

  10. Repackaging SRS Black Box TRU Waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Swale, D. J.; Stone, K.A.; Milner, T. N.

    2006-01-01

    Historically, large items of TRU Waste, which were too large to be packaged in drums for disposal have been packaged in various sizes of custom made plywood boxes at the Savannah River Site (SRS), for many years. These boxes were subsequently packaged into large steel ''Black Boxes'' for storage at SRS, pending availability of Characterization and Certification capability, to facilitate disposal of larger items of TRU Waste. There are approximately 107 Black Boxes in inventory at SRS, each measuring some 18' x 12' x 7', and weighing up to 45,000 lbs. These Black Boxes have been stored since the early 1980s. The project to repackage this waste into Standard Large Boxes (SLBs), Standard Waste Boxes (SWB) and Ten Drum Overpacks (TDOP), for subsequent characterization and WIPP disposal, commenced in FY04. To date, 10 Black Boxes have been repackaged, resulting in 40 SLB-2's, and 37 B25 overpack boxes, these B25's will be overpacked in SLB-2's prior to shipping to WIPP. This paper will describe experience to date from this project

  11. Robust forecast comparison

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Sainan; Corradi, Valentina; Swanson, Norman

    2015-01-01

    Forecast accuracy is typically measured in terms of a given loss function. However, as a consequence of the use of misspecified models in multiple model comparisons, relative forecast rankings are loss function dependent. This paper addresses this issue by using a novel criterion for forecast evaluation which is based on the entire distribution of forecast errors. We introduce the concepts of general-loss (GL) forecast superiority and convex-loss (CL) forecast superiority, and we establish a ...

  12. Invariant box parameterization of neutrino oscillations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weiler, T.J.; Wagner, D.

    1998-01-01

    The model-independent 'box' parameterization of neutrino oscillations is examined. The invariant boxes are the classical amplitudes of the individual oscillating terms. Being observables, the boxes are independent of the choice of parameterization of the mixing matrix. Emphasis is placed on the relations among the box parameters due to mixing matrix unitarity, and on the reduction of the number of boxes to the minimum basis set. Using the box algebra, we show that CP-violation may be inferred from measurements of neutrino flavor mixing even when the oscillatory factors have averaged. General analyses of neutrino oscillations among n≥3 flavors can readily determine the boxes, which can then be manipulated to yield magnitudes of mixing matrix elements. copyright 1998 American Institute of Physics

  13. Box-particle intensity filter

    OpenAIRE

    Schikora, Marek; Gning, Amadou; Mihaylova, Lyudmila; Cremers, Daniel; Koch, Wofgang; Streit, Roy

    2012-01-01

    This paper develops a novel approach for multi-target tracking, called box-particle intensity filter (box-iFilter). The approach is able to cope with unknown clutter, false alarms and estimates the unknown number of targets. Furthermore, it is capable of dealing with three sources of uncertainty: stochastic, set-theoretic and data association uncertainty. The box-iFilter reduces the number of particles significantly, which improves the runtime considerably. The low particle number enables thi...

  14. A New Empirical Model for Short-Term Forecasting of the Broadband Penetration: A Short Research in Greece

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salpasaranis Konstantinos

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to present a short research about the overall broadband penetration in Greece. In this research, a new empirical deterministic model is proposed for the short-term forecast of the cumulative broadband adoption. The fitting performance of the model is compared with some widely used diffusion models for the cumulative adoption of new telecommunication products, namely, Logistic, Gompertz, Flexible Logistic (FLOG, Box-Cox, Richards, and Bass models. The fitting process is done with broadband penetration official data for Greece. In conclusion, comparing these models with the empirical model, it could be argued that the latter yields well enough statistics indicators for fitting and forecasting performance. It also stresses the need for further research and performance analysis of the model in other more mature broadband markets.

  15. Molecular cloning and characterization of an F-box family gene CarF-box1 from chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Yuying; Gu, Hanyan; Wang, Xiansheng; Chen, Quanjia; Shi, Shubing; Zhang, Jusong; Ma, Lin; Zhang, Hua; Ma, Hao

    2012-03-01

    F-box protein family has been found to play important roles in plant development and abiotic stress responses via the ubiquitin pathway. In this study, an F-box gene CarF-box1 (for Cicer arietinum F-box gene 1, Genbank accession no. GU247510) was isolated based on a cDNA library constructed with chickpea seedling leaves treated by polyethylene glycol. CarF-box1 encoded a putative protein with 345 amino acids and contained no intron within genomic DNA sequence. CarF-box1 is a KFB-type F-box protein, having a conserved F-box domain in the N-terminus and a Kelch repeat domain in the C-terminus. CarF-box1 was localized in the nucleus. CarF-box1 exhibited organ-specific expression and showed different expression patterns during seed development and germination processes, especially strongly expressed in the blooming flowers. In the leaves, CarF-box1 could be significantly induced by drought stress and slightly induced by IAA treatment, while in the roots, CarF-box1 could be strongly induced by drought, salinity and methyl jasmonate stresses. Our results suggest that CarF-box1 encodes an F-box protein and may be involved in various plant developmental processes and abiotic stress responses.

  16. Fitting ARMA Time Series by Structural Equation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Buuren, Stef

    1997-01-01

    This paper outlines how the stationary ARMA (p,q) model (G. Box and G. Jenkins, 1976) can be specified as a structural equation model. Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters in the ARMA model can be obtained by software for fitting structural equation models. The method is applied to three problem types. (SLD)

  17. Estimation and control in HTGR fuel rod fabrication

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Downing, D.J.; Bailey, J.M.

    1980-01-01

    A control algorithm has been derived for an HTGR Fuel Rod Fabrication Process utilizing the method of G.E.P. Box and G.M. Jenkins. The estimator is a Kalman filter and is compared with a Least Square estimator and a standard control chart. The effects of system delays are presented. 1 ref

  18. Forecasting Skill

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    for the third and fourth day precipitation forecasts. A marked improvement was shown for the consensus 24 hour precipitation forecast, and small... Zuckerberg (1980) found a small long term skill increase in forecasts of heavy snow events for nine eastern cities. Other National Weather Service...and maximum temperature) are each awarded marks 2, 1, or 0 according to whether the forecast is correct, 8 - *- -**■*- ———"—- - -■ t0m 1 MM—IB I

  19. A flexible system to capture sample vials in a storage box - the box vial scanner.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nowakowski, Steven E; Kressin, Kenneth R; Deick, Steven D

    2009-01-01

    Tracking sample vials in a research environment is a critical task and doing so efficiently can have a large impact on productivity, especially in high volume laboratories. There are several challenges to automating the capture process, including the variety of containers used to store samples. We developed a fast and robust system to capture the location of sample vials being placed in storage that allows the laboratories the flexibility to use sample containers of varying dimensions. With a single scan, this device captures the box identifier, the vial identifier and the location of each vial within a freezer storage box. The sample vials are tracked through a barcode label affixed to the cap while the boxes are tracked by a barcode label on the side of the box. Scanning units are placed at the point of use and forward data to a sever application for processing the scanned data. Scanning units consist of an industrial barcode reader mounted in a fixture positioning the box for scanning and providing lighting during the scan. The server application transforms the scan data into a list of storage locations holding vial identifiers. The list is then transferred to the laboratory database. The box vial scanner captures the IDs and location information for an entire box of sample vials into the laboratory database in a single scan. The system accommodates a wide variety of vials sizes by inserting risers under the sample box and a variety of storage box layouts are supported via the processing algorithm on the server.

  20. Dimension measuring method for channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Hiroto.

    1995-01-01

    The device of the present invention concerns detection of a channel box for spent fuel assemblies of a BWR type reactor, which measures a cross sectional shape and dimension of the channel box to check deformation amount such as expansion. That is, a customary fuel exchanger and a dimension measuring device are used. The lower end of the channel box is measured by a distance sensor of the dimension measuring device when it is aligned with a position of the distance sensor. The channel box is lowered at the same time while detecting axial position data of the fuel exchanger. The position of the channel box in an axial direction is detected based on axial position data of the fuel exchanger. The lower end of the channel box can accurately be recognized by the detection of both of them. Subsequent deformation measurement for the channel box at accurate axial positions is enabled. In addition, since the axial position data of the fuel exchanger per se are detected, an axial profile of the channel box can be measured even if a lifting speed of the channel box is varied on every region. (I.S.)

  1. Evaluating information in multiple horizon forecasts. The DOE's energy price forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sanders, Dwight R.; Manfredo, Mark R.; Boris, Keith

    2009-01-01

    The United States Department of Energy's (DOE) quarterly price forecasts for energy commodities are examined to determine the incremental information provided at the one-through four-quarter forecast horizons. A direct test for determining information content at alternative forecast horizons, developed by Vuchelen and Gutierrez [Vuchelen, J. and Gutierrez, M.-I. 'A Direct Test of the Information Content of the OECD Growth Forecasts.' International Journal of Forecasting. 21(2005):103-117.], is used. The results suggest that the DOE's price forecasts for crude oil, gasoline, and diesel fuel do indeed provide incremental information out to three-quarters ahead, while natural gas and electricity forecasts are informative out to the four-quarter horizon. In contrast, the DOE's coal price forecasts at two-, three-, and four-quarters ahead provide no incremental information beyond that provided for the one-quarter horizon. Recommendations of how to use these results for making forecast adjustments is also provided. (author)

  2. Neural networks-based operational prototype for flash flood forecasting: application to Liane flash floods (France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bertin Dominique

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The Liane River is a small costal river, famous for its floods, which can affect the city of Boulogne-sur-Mer. Due to the complexity of land cover and hydrologic processes, a black-box non-linear modelling was chosen using neural networks. The multilayer perceptron model, known for its property of universal approximation is thus chosen. Four models were designed, each one for one forecasting horizon using rainfall forecasts: 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h. The desired output of the model is original: it represents the maximal value of the water level respectively 24h, 12h, 6h, 3h ahead. Working with best forecasts of rain (the observed ones during the event in the past, on the major flood of the database in test set, the model provides excellent forecasts. Nash criteria calculated for the four lead times are 0.98 (3h, 0.97 (6h, 0.91 (12h, 0.89 (24h. Designed models were thus estimated as efficient enough to be implemented in a specific tool devoted to real time operational use. The software tool is described hereafter: designed in Java, it presents a friendly interface allowing applying various scenarios of future rainfalls, and a graphical visualization of the predicted maximum water levels and their associated real time observed values.

  3. National Forecast Charts

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. National Forecast Charts

  4. Modeling Data Containing Outliers using ARIMA Additive Outlier (ARIMA-AO)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saleh Ahmar, Ansari; Guritno, Suryo; Abdurakhman; Rahman, Abdul; Awi; Alimuddin; Minggi, Ilham; Arif Tiro, M.; Kasim Aidid, M.; Annas, Suwardi; Utami Sutiksno, Dian; Ahmar, Dewi S.; Ahmar, Kurniawan H.; Abqary Ahmar, A.; Zaki, Ahmad; Abdullah, Dahlan; Rahim, Robbi; Nurdiyanto, Heri; Hidayat, Rahmat; Napitupulu, Darmawan; Simarmata, Janner; Kurniasih, Nuning; Andretti Abdillah, Leon; Pranolo, Andri; Haviluddin; Albra, Wahyudin; Arifin, A. Nurani M.

    2018-01-01

    The aim this study is discussed on the detection and correction of data containing the additive outlier (AO) on the model ARIMA (p, d, q). The process of detection and correction of data using an iterative procedure popularized by Box, Jenkins, and Reinsel (1994). By using this method we obtained an ARIMA models were fit to the data containing AO, this model is added to the original model of ARIMA coefficients obtained from the iteration process using regression methods. In the simulation data is obtained that the data contained AO initial models are ARIMA (2,0,0) with MSE = 36,780, after the detection and correction of data obtained by the iteration of the model ARIMA (2,0,0) with the coefficients obtained from the regression Zt = 0,106+0,204Z t-1+0,401Z t-2-329X 1(t)+115X 2(t)+35,9X 3(t) and MSE = 19,365. This shows that there is an improvement of forecasting error rate data.

  5. Forecasting telecommunication new service demand by analogy method and combined forecast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lin Feng-Jenq

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In the modeling forecast field, we are usually faced with the more difficult problems of forecasting market demand for a new service or product. A new service or product is defined as that there is absence of historical data in this new market. We hardly use models to execute the forecasting work directly. In the Taiwan telecommunication industry, after liberalization in 1996, there are many new services opened continually. For optimal investment, it is necessary that the operators, who have been granted the concessions and licenses, forecast this new service within their planning process. Though there are some methods to solve or avoid this predicament, in this paper, we will propose one forecasting procedure that integrates the concept of analogy method and the idea of combined forecast to generate new service forecast. In view of the above, the first half of this paper describes the procedure of analogy method and the approach of combined forecast, and the second half provides the case of forecasting low-tier phone demand in Taiwan to illustrate this procedure's feasibility.

  6. Exploring the interactions between forecast accuracy, risk perception and perceived forecast reliability in reservoir operator's decision to use forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafiee-Jood, M.; Cai, X.

    2017-12-01

    Advances in streamflow forecasts at different time scales offer a promise for proactive flood management and improved risk management. Despite the huge potential, previous studies have found that water resources managers are often not willing to incorporate streamflow forecasts information in decisions making, particularly in risky situations. While low accuracy of forecasts information is often cited as the main reason, some studies have found that implementation of streamflow forecasts sometimes is impeded by institutional obstacles and behavioral factors (e.g., risk perception). In fact, a seminal study by O'Connor et al. (2005) found that risk perception is the strongest determinant of forecast use while managers' perception about forecast reliability is not significant. In this study, we aim to address this issue again. However, instead of using survey data and regression analysis, we develop a theoretical framework to assess the user-perceived value of streamflow forecasts. The framework includes a novel behavioral component which incorporates both risk perception and perceived forecast reliability. The framework is then used in a hypothetical problem where reservoir operator should react to probabilistic flood forecasts with different reliabilities. The framework will allow us to explore the interactions among risk perception and perceived forecast reliability, and among the behavioral components and information accuracy. The findings will provide insights to improve the usability of flood forecasts information through better communication and education.

  7. Heart Rate and Liking During "Kinect Boxing" Versus "Wii Boxing": The Potential for Enjoyable Vigorous Physical Activity Videogames.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanders, Gabriel J; Peacock, Corey A; Barkley, Jacob E; Gish, Brian; Brock, Scott; Volpenhein, Josh

    2015-08-01

    Nintendo(®) (Kyoto, Japan) "Wii™ Sports Boxing" ("Wii Boxing") and Xbox(®) (Microsoft, Redmond, WA) "Kinect(®) Sports Boxing" ("Kinect Boxing") are both boxing simulation videogames that are available for two different active videogame (AVG) systems. Although these AVGs are similar, the style of gameplay required is different (i.e., upper body only versus total body movements) and may alter physical activity intensity and one's preference for playing one game over the other. AVGs that elicit the greatest physiologic challenge and are preferred by users should be identified in an effort to enhance the efficacy of physical activity interventions and programs that include AVGs. The mean heart rate (HRmean) and peak heart rate (HRpeak) for 27 adults (22.7±4.2 years old) were recorded during four 10-minute conditions: seated rest, treadmill walking at 3 miles/hour, "Wii Boxing," and "Kinect Boxing." Upon completion of all four conditions, participants indicated which condition they preferred, and HRmean and HRpeak were calculated as a percentage of age-predicted maximum heart rate to classify physical activity intensity for the three activity conditions (treadmill, "Wii Boxing," and "Kinect Boxing"). "Kinect Boxing" significantly (P<0.001) increased percentage HRmean (64.1±1.6 percent of age-predicted maximum) and percentage HRpeak (76.5±1.9 percent) above all other conditions: Wii HRmean, 53.0±1.2 percent; Wii HRpeak, 61.8±1.5 percent; treadmill HRmean, 52.4±1.2 percent; treadmill HRpeak, 55.2±2.2 percent. Percentage HRpeak for "Kinect Boxing" was great enough to be considered a vigorous-intensity physical activity. There was no difference (P=0.55) in percentage HRmean between "Wii Boxing" and treadmill walking. Participants also preferred "Kinect Boxing" (P<0.001; n=26) to all other conditions ("Wii Boxing," n=1; treadmill n=0). "Kinect Boxing" was the most preferred and the only condition that was physiologically challenging enough to be classified as a

  8. Aplicación de la metodología de series de tiempo en la estimación de los niveles de exportaciones de café de Colombia periodo 1958-2011 - Application of time series methodology the estimation of the levels of exports of Colombia’s coffee period 1958 - 2011

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josefa Ramoni Perazzi

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available A fundamental element for the coffee Colombian sector, is to know to short, medium and long term, the behavior of the exports of soft coffee of Colombia, to know his relation in the processes of sales and production. In conformity with the previous thing, the present work was elaborated realizing an evaluation of the levels of exports of coffee, in monthly form from beginnings of 1958 until ends of 2008. With the aim to develop a model who allows to characterize and to obtain forecasts on the behavior of the exports of coffee realized in the country, the methodology used Box Jenkins, following the phases for the models ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated of Mobile Average.The information was taken of the web page of the National Federation of Coffee Growers of Colombia. In the series under study a seasonal behavior was observed, where the first quarters present the minor levels of the year, particularly in February,month that registers the lowest levels of exports of the year, these levels quarterly go increasing of gradual form up to reaching the major level of exports in the quarter IV, specifically between November and December. Finally the forecasts were obtained between the year 2009 and 2011, following a stable behavior with regard to the period of validation of the sample of the series. The information was analyzed using the language R.

  9. Work-related accidents among the Iranian population: a time series analysis, 2000-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimlou, Masoud; Salehi, Masoud; Imani, Mehdi; Hosseini, Agha-Fatemeh; Dehnad, Afsaneh; Vahabi, Nasim; Bakhtiyari, Mahmood

    2015-01-01

    Work-related accidents result in human suffering and economic losses and are considered as a major health problem worldwide, especially in the economically developing world. To introduce seasonal autoregressive moving average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis of work-related accident data for workers insured by the Iranian Social Security Organization (ISSO) between 2000 and 2011. In this retrospective study, all insured people experiencing at least one work-related accident during a 10-year period were included in the analyses. We used Box-Jenkins modeling to develop a time series model of the total number of accidents. There was an average of 1476 accidents per month (1476·05±458·77, mean±SD). The final ARIMA (p,d,q) (P,D,Q)s model for fitting to data was: ARIMA(1,1,1)×(0,1,1)12 consisting of the first ordering of the autoregressive, moving average and seasonal moving average parameters with 20·942 mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The final model showed that time series analysis of ARIMA models was useful for forecasting the number of work-related accidents in Iran. In addition, the forecasted number of work-related accidents for 2011 explained the stability of occurrence of these accidents in recent years, indicating a need for preventive occupational health and safety policies such as safety inspection.

  10. The three-box paradox revisited

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ravon, Tamar; Vaidman, Lev

    2007-01-01

    The classical three-box paradox of Kirkpatrick (2003 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 36 4891) is compared to the original quantum three-box paradox of Aharonov and Vaidman (1991 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 24 2315). It is argued that the quantum three-box experiment is a 'quantum paradox' in the sense that it is an example of a classical task which cannot be accomplished using classical means, but can be accomplished using quantum devices. It is shown that Kirkpatrick's card game is analogous to a different game with a particle in three boxes which does not contain paradoxical features

  11. IMPROVED, FAVORABLE FOR ENVIRONMENT POLYURETHANE COLD-BOX-PROCESS (COLD BOX «HUTTENES-ALBERTUS» .

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Sergini

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The results of the laboratory and industrial investigations, the purpose of which is improvement of the classical Cold-box-process, i.e. the process of the slugs hardening in cold boxes, are presented.

  12. Reconciling White-Box and Black-Box Perspectives on Behavioral Self-adaptation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruni, Roberto; Corradini, Andrea; Gadducci, Fabio

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes to reconcile two perspectives on behavioral adaptation commonly taken at different stages of the engineering of autonomic computing systems. Requirements engineering activities often take a black-box perspective: A system is considered to be adaptive with respect to an environ......This paper proposes to reconcile two perspectives on behavioral adaptation commonly taken at different stages of the engineering of autonomic computing systems. Requirements engineering activities often take a black-box perspective: A system is considered to be adaptive with respect...... to an environment whenever the system is able to satisfy its goals irrespectively of the environment perturbations. Modeling and programming engineering activities often take a white-box perspective: A system is equipped with suitable adaptation mechanisms and its behavior is classified as adaptive depending...

  13. The Careful Puppet Master: Reducing risk and fortifying acceptance testing with Jenkins CI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Jason A.; Richman, Gabriel; DeStefano, John; Pryor, James; Rao, Tejas; Strecker-Kellogg, William; Wong, Tony

    2015-12-01

    Centralized configuration management, including the use of automation tools such as Puppet, can greatly increase provisioning speed and efficiency when configuring new systems or making changes to existing systems, reduce duplication of work, and improve automated processes. However, centralized management also brings with it a level of inherent risk: a single change in just one file can quickly be pushed out to thousands of computers and, if that change is not properly and thoroughly tested and contains an error, could result in catastrophic damage to many services, potentially bringing an entire computer facility offline. Change management procedures can—and should—be formalized in order to prevent such accidents. However, like the configuration management process itself, if such procedures are not automated, they can be difficult to enforce strictly. Therefore, to reduce the risk of merging potentially harmful changes into our production Puppet environment, we have created an automated testing system, which includes the Jenkins CI tool, to manage our Puppet testing process. This system includes the proposed changes and runs Puppet on a pool of dozens of RedHat Enterprise Virtualization (RHEV) virtual machines (VMs) that replicate most of our important production services for the purpose of testing. This paper describes our automated test system and how it hooks into our production approval process for automatic acceptance testing. All pending changes that have been pushed to production must pass this validation process before they can be approved and merged into production.

  14. Decommissioning a small glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bond, R.D.; McSherry, K.

    1985-11-01

    An account is given of dismantling a fuel fabrication glove box using simple tooling. The fissile content of the box was first measured by several non-destructive techniques. After cleaning, the box was dismantled using hand tools and finally packed for disposal. A record of operator radiation doses, the time taken for each stage of the operation and packing information is given. (author)

  15. Modelling and forecasting long-term dynamics of Western Baltic macrobenthic fauna in relation to climate signals and environmental change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gröger, Joachim; Rumohr, Heye

    2006-05-01

    Long-term macrobenthos data from Kiel Bight in the Western Baltic collected between 1968 and 2000 have been correlated with the winter NAO index (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and other environmental data such as temperature, salinity and oxygen content in the bottom water in order to detect systematic patterns related to so far unexplained abiotic signals in the dynamics of zoobenthic species assemblages. The benthos data come from a cluster of five stations (Süderfahrt/ Millionenviertel) in Kiel Bay. Our investigations concentrated on the macrobenthic dynamics with a focus on the number of species m - 2 (species richness). Using logarithms and the time series analysis approach of Box/Jenkins (ARIMA modelling, transfer function modelling) it was shown that species richness was strongly influenced by the winter NAO (adjusted for a linear time trend within the 1968-2000 period) and salinity (with a shift/lag of four years). Bootstrapping experiments (i.e. sampling from the error process) and analysis of prediction power (by means of the one- or more-years leaving-out method) showed that the parameter estimates behaved in a stable way, leading to a relatively robust model.

  16. Design report for shielded glove box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ku, J. H.; Lee, J. C.; Seo, K. S.; Bang, K. S.; Lee, D. W.; Kim, J. H.; Min, D. K.; Park, S. W.

    1999-05-01

    For the examination of spent fuels and high radioactive specimens using a specially equipped scanning electron microscope, a shielded glove box was designed and constructed at PIE facility of KAERI. This glove box consisted of shielding walls, containment box, lead glasses, manipulators, gloves, ventilation systems, doors, hot-cell specimen cask adapter, etc. It was emphasized that both the easy operation and radiation safety are important factors in the shielded glove box were installed also considered as a important factor to build the basic concept of the assembling. Two sliding doors and one hinge-type door were installed for the easy installation, operation and maintenance of scanning electron microscope. Containment box which confines the radioactive material into the box consisted of reinforced transparent glasses, aluminum frames and stainless steel plate liner. Therefore everything beyond the containment box can be seen through the lead glass which installed at the front shielding wall. All shielding walls and doors were introduced separately into the room and assembled by bolting. (author). 3 refs., 5 tabs., 18 figs

  17. Box-particle probability hypothesis density filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Schikora, M.; Gning, A.; Mihaylova, L.; Cremers, D.; Koch, W.

    2014-01-01

    This paper develops a novel approach for multitarget tracking, called box-particle probability hypothesis density filter (box-PHD filter). The approach is able to track multiple targets and estimates the unknown number of targets. Furthermore, it is capable of dealing with three sources of uncertainty: stochastic, set-theoretic, and data association uncertainty. The box-PHD filter reduces the number of particles significantly, which improves the runtime considerably. The small number of box-p...

  18. Channel box dimension measuring method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oshima, Hirotake; Jo, Hiroto.

    1994-01-01

    The present invention provides a method for measuring the entire length of a channel box of a fuel assembly of a BWR type reactor. Namely, four sensors are used as one set that generate ultrasonic waves from oblique upper portion, oblique lower portion, upper portion and lower portion of the channel box respectively. The distances between the four sensors and each of the portions of the channel box are measured respectively for both of a reference member and a member to be measured. The entire length of the channel box is measured by calculating the measured values and the angles of the obliquely disposed sensors according to a predetermined formula. According to the method of the present invention, the inclination of the channel box to be measured can be corrected. In addition, accuracy of the measurement is improved and the measuring time is saved as well as the measuring device and operation can be simplified. (I.S.)

  19. Shaping 3-D boxes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Stenholt, Rasmus; Madsen, Claus B.

    2011-01-01

    Enabling users to shape 3-D boxes in immersive virtual environments is a non-trivial problem. In this paper, a new family of techniques for creating rectangular boxes of arbitrary position, orientation, and size is presented and evaluated. These new techniques are based solely on position data...

  20. Inflation Forecast Contracts

    OpenAIRE

    Gersbach, Hans; Hahn, Volker

    2012-01-01

    We introduce a new type of incentive contract for central bankers: inflation forecast contracts, which make central bankers’ remunerations contingent on the precision of their inflation forecasts. We show that such contracts enable central bankers to influence inflation expectations more effectively, thus facilitating more successful stabilization of current inflation. Inflation forecast contracts improve the accuracy of inflation forecasts, but have adverse consequences for output. On balanc...

  1. A Novel Nonlinear Combined Forecasting System for Short-Term Load Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengshi Tian

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Short-term load forecasting plays an indispensable role in electric power systems, which is not only an extremely challenging task but also a concerning issue for all society due to complex nonlinearity characteristics. However, most previous combined forecasting models were based on optimizing weight coefficients to develop a linear combined forecasting model, while ignoring that the linear combined model only considers the contribution of the linear terms to improving the model’s performance, which will lead to poor forecasting results because of the significance of the neglected and potential nonlinear terms. In this paper, a novel nonlinear combined forecasting system, which consists of three modules (improved data pre-processing module, forecasting module and the evaluation module is developed for short-term load forecasting. Different from the simple data pre-processing of most previous studies, the improved data pre-processing module based on longitudinal data selection is successfully developed in this system, which further improves the effectiveness of data pre-processing and then enhances the final forecasting performance. Furthermore, the modified support vector machine is developed to integrate all the individual predictors and obtain the final prediction, which successfully overcomes the upper drawbacks of the linear combined model. Moreover, the evaluation module is incorporated to perform a scientific evaluation for the developed system. The half-hourly electrical load data from New South Wales are employed to verify the effectiveness of the developed forecasting system, and the results reveal that the developed nonlinear forecasting system can be employed in the dispatching and planning for smart grids.

  2. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Bertsche, David; The ATLAS collaboration; Welch, Steven; Smith, Dale Shane; Che, Siinn; Gan, K.K.; Boyd, George Russell Jr

    2015-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm^3. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  3. Innovations in Los Alamos alpha box design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ledbetter, J.M.; Dowler, K.E.; Cook, J.H.

    1985-01-01

    Destructive examinations of irradiated fuel pins containing plutonium fuel must be performed in shielded hot cells with strict provisions for containing the plutonium. Alpha boxes provide containment for the plutonium, toxic fission products, and other hazardous highly radioactive materials. The alpha box contains windows for viewing and a variety of transfer systems specially designed to allow transfers in and out of the alpha box without spread of the hazardous materials that are contained in the box. Alpha boxes have been in use in the Wing 9 hot cells at Los Alamos National Laboratory for more than 20 years. Features of the newly designed alpha boxes are presented

  4. Complementarity in the Einstein-Bohr photon box

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Dieks, D.G.B.J.; Lam, S

    2008-01-01

    The Bohr-Einstein photon box thought experiment is a forerunner of the EPR experiment: a packet of radiation escapes from a box, and the box-plus-radiation state remains entangled. Hence, a measurement on the box makes a difference for the state of the far-away radiation long after its escape. This

  5. Dustproof cooling of the electrical box

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nemec Patrik

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In present are electrical boxes cooled by air through the intake hole on the bottom electrical box to the box space with electrotechnical elements and exhaust through the hole at the top to the surrounding by natural convection. This cooling method is effective but operate with the risk of contamination electrotechnical elements by dust sucking from surrounding air. The goal of this work is solution of the dustproof cooling of the electrical box by natural convection. The work deal with design of the device with the heat transfer by the phase change of the working fluid and experimental measuring its thermal performance at the cooling electrotechnical elements loaded by heat 1 200 W in the dustproof electrical box.

  6. Magnetogram Forecast: An All-Clear Space Weather Forecasting System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barghouty, Nasser; Falconer, David

    2015-01-01

    Solar flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are the drivers of severe space weather. Forecasting the probability of their occurrence is critical in improving space weather forecasts. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) currently uses the McIntosh active region category system, in which each active region on the disk is assigned to one of 60 categories, and uses the historical flare rates of that category to make an initial forecast that can then be adjusted by the NOAA forecaster. Flares and CMEs are caused by the sudden release of energy from the coronal magnetic field by magnetic reconnection. It is believed that the rate of flare and CME occurrence in an active region is correlated with the free energy of an active region. While the free energy cannot be measured directly with present observations, proxies of the free energy can instead be used to characterize the relative free energy of an active region. The Magnetogram Forecast (MAG4) (output is available at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center) was conceived and designed to be a databased, all-clear forecasting system to support the operational goals of NASA's Space Radiation Analysis Group. The MAG4 system automatically downloads nearreal- time line-of-sight Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager (HMI) magnetograms on the Solar Dynamics Observatory (SDO) satellite, identifies active regions on the solar disk, measures a free-energy proxy, and then applies forecasting curves to convert the free-energy proxy into predicted event rates for X-class flares, M- and X-class flares, CMEs, fast CMEs, and solar energetic particle events (SPEs). The forecast curves themselves are derived from a sample of 40,000 magnetograms from 1,300 active region samples, observed by the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory Michelson Doppler Imager. Figure 1 is an example of MAG4 visual output

  7. Medium Range Forecasts Representation (and Long Range Forecasts?)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vincendon, J.-C.

    2009-09-01

    The progress of the numerical forecasts urges us to interest us in more and more distant ranges. We thus supply more and more forecasts with term of some days. Nevertheless, precautions of use are necessary to give the most reliable and the most relevant possible information. Available in a TV bulletin or on quite other support (Internet, mobile phone), the interpretation and the representation of a medium range forecast (5 - 15 days) must be different from those of a short range forecast. Indeed, the "foresee-ability” of a meteorological phenomenon decreases gradually in the course of the ranges, it decreases all the more quickly that the phenomenon is of small scale. So, at the end of some days, the probability character of a forecast becomes very widely dominating. That is why in Meteo-France the forecasts of D+4 to D+7 are accompanied with a confidence index since around ten years. It is a figure between 1 and 5: the more we approach 5, the more the confidence in the supplied forecast is good. In the practice, an indication is supplied for period D+4 / D+5, the other one for period D+6 / D+7, every day being able to benefit from a different forecast, that is be represented in a independent way. We thus supply a global tendency over 24 hours with less and less precise symbols as the range goes away. Concrete examples will be presented. From now on two years, we also publish forecasts to D+8 / J+9, accompanied with a sign of confidence (" good reliability " or " to confirm "). These two days are grouped together on a single map because for us, the described tendency to this term is relevant on a duration about 48 hours with a spatial scale slightly superior to the synoptic scale. So, we avoid producing more than two zones of types of weather over France and we content with giving an evolution for the temperatures (still, in increase or in decline). Newspapers began to publish this information, it should soon be the case of televisions. It is particularly

  8. Box graphs and resolutions I

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas P. Braun

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Box graphs succinctly and comprehensively characterize singular fibers of elliptic fibrations in codimension two and three, as well as flop transitions connecting these, in terms of representation theoretic data. We develop a framework that provides a systematic map between a box graph and a crepant algebraic resolution of the singular elliptic fibration, thus allowing an explicit construction of the fibers from a singular Weierstrass or Tate model. The key tool is what we call a fiber face diagram, which shows the relevant information of a (partial toric triangulation and allows the inclusion of more general algebraic blowups. We shown that each such diagram defines a sequence of weighted algebraic blowups, thus providing a realization of the fiber defined by the box graph in terms of an explicit resolution. We show this correspondence explicitly for the case of SU(5 by providing a map between box graphs and fiber faces, and thereby a sequence of algebraic resolutions of the Tate model, which realizes each of the box graphs.

  9. The strategy of professional forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottaviani, Marco; Sørensen, Peter Norman

    2006-01-01

    We develop and compare two theories of professional forecasters’ strategic behavior. The first theory, reputational cheap talk, posits that forecasters endeavor to convince the market that they are well informed. The market evaluates their forecasting talent on the basis of the forecasts...... and the realized state. If the market expects forecasters to report their posterior expectations honestly, then forecasts are shaded toward the prior mean. With correct market expectations, equilibrium forecasts are imprecise but not shaded. The second theory posits that forecasters compete in a forecasting...... contest with pre-specified rules. In a winner-take-all contest, equilibrium forecasts are excessively differentiated...

  10. Plate forming and break down pizza box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pantisano, Frank; Devine, Scott M.

    1992-01-01

    A standard corrugated paper pizza box is provided with slit cuts cut through the top panel of the pizza box in a shape to form four circular serving plates with a beveled raised edge and cross slit cuts through the bottom panel of the pizza box separating the box into four essentially equal portions for easy disposal.

  11. Grey Box Modelling of Flow in Sewer Systems with State Dependent Diffusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Thordarson, Fannar Örn; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg

    2011-01-01

    . It is shown that an additive diffusion noise term description leads to a violation of the physical constraints of the system, whereas a state dependent diffusion noise avoids this problem and should be favoured. It is also shown that a logarithmic transformation of the flow measurements secures positive lower...... flow prediction limits, because the observation noise is proportionally scaled with the modelled output. Finally it is concluded that a state proportional diffusion term best and adequately describes the one-step flow prediction uncertainty, and a proper description of the system noise is important......Generating flow forecasts with uncertainty limits from rain gauge inputs in sewer systems require simple models with identifiable parameters that can adequately describe the stochastic phenomena of the system. In this paper, a simple grey-box model is proposed that is attractive for both...

  12. Are Forecast Updates Progressive?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    C-L. Chang (Chia-Lin); Ph.H.B.F. Franses (Philip Hans); M.J. McAleer (Michael)

    2010-01-01

    textabstractMacro-economic forecasts typically involve both a model component, which is replicable, as well as intuition, which is non-replicable. Intuition is expert knowledge possessed by a forecaster. If forecast updates are progressive, forecast updates should become more accurate, on average,

  13. The Heuristic Interpretation of Box Plots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lem, Stephanie; Onghena, Patrick; Verschaffel, Lieven; Van Dooren, Wim

    2013-01-01

    Box plots are frequently used, but are often misinterpreted by students. Especially the area of the box in box plots is often misinterpreted as representing number or proportion of observations, while it actually represents their density. In a first study, reaction time evidence was used to test whether heuristic reasoning underlies this…

  14. Injury risk in professional boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bledsoe, Gregory H; Li, Guohu; Levy, Fred

    2005-10-01

    Although a popular endeavor, boxing has fallen under increased scrutiny because of its association with traumatic brain injury. However, few studies have investigated the overall epidemiology of boxing injuries from representative samples, and no study has ever documented the incidence of injuries in female boxers. This study is a review of professional boxing data from the state of Nevada from September 2001 through March 2003. Medical and outcome data for all professional boxing matches occurring in Nevada between September 2001 and March 2003 (n = 524 matches) were analyzed on the basis of a pair-matched, case-control design. Cases were boxers who received an injury during the boxing matches. Boxers who were not injured served as control subjects. Both conditional and unconditional logistic regression models were used to assess risk factors for injury. The overall incidence rate of injury was 17.1 per 100 boxer-matches, or 3.4 per 100 boxer-rounds. Facial laceration accounted for 51% of all injuries, followed by hand injury (17%), eye injury (14%), and nose injury (5%). Male boxers were significantly more likely than female boxers to receive injuries (3.6 versus 1.2 per 100 boxer-rounds, P = 0.01). Male boxing matches also ended in knockouts and technical knockouts more often than did female matches (P boxing matches is high, particularly among male boxers. Superficial facial lacerations are the most common injury reported. Male boxers have a higher rate of knockout and technical knockouts than female boxers. Further research is necessary to determine the outcomes of injury, particularly the long-term neurologic outcome differences between sexes.

  15. Comparative Human and Automatic Evaluation of Glass-Box and Black-Box Approaches to Interactive Translation Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Torregrosa Daniel

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Interactive translation prediction (ITP is a modality of computer-aided translation that assists professional translators by offering context-based computer-generated continuation suggestions as they type. While most state-of-the-art ITP systems follow a glass-box approach, meaning that they are tightly coupled to an adapted machine translation system, a black-box approach which does not need access to the inner workings of the bilingual resources used to generate the suggestions has been recently proposed in the literature: this new approach allows new sources of bilingual information to be included almost seamlessly. In this paper, we compare for the first time the glass-box and the black-box approaches by means of an automatic evaluation of translation tasks between related languages such as English–Spanish and unrelated ones such as Arabic–English and English–Chinese, showing that, with our setup, 20%–50% of keystrokes could be saved using either method and that the black-box approach outperformed the glass-box one in five out of six scenarios operating under similar conditions. We also performed a preliminary human evaluation of English to Spanish translation for both approaches. On average, the evaluators saved 10% keystrokes and were 4% faster with the black-box approach, and saved 15% keystrokes and were 12% slower with the glass-box one; but they could have saved 51% and 69% keystrokes respectively if they had used all the compatible suggestions. Users felt the suggestions helped them to translate faster and easier. All the tools used to perform the evaluation are available as free/open–source software.

  16. Opto-Box

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(INSPIRE)INSPIRE-00377159; The ATLAS collaboration

    2016-01-01

    The opto-box is a custom mini-crate for housing optical modules, which process and transfer optoelectronic data. Many novel solutions were developed for the custom design and manufacturing. The system tightly integrates electrical, mechanical, and thermal functionality into a small package of size 35x10x8 cm$^{3}$. Special attention was given to ensure proper shielding, grounding, cooling, high reliability, and environmental tolerance. The custom modules, which incorporate Application Specific Integrated Circuits (ASICs), were developed through a cycle of rigorous testing and redesign. In total, fourteen opto-boxes have been installed and loaded with modules on the ATLAS detector. They are currently in operation as part of the LHC run 2 data read-out chain.

  17. Math in the Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeYoung, Mary J.

    2009-01-01

    This article describes how to make an origami paper box and explores the algebra, geometry, and other mathematics that unfolds. A set of origami steps that transforms the paper into an open box can hold mathematical surprises for both students and teachers. An origami lesson can engage students in an open-ended exploration of the relationship…

  18. ALUMINUM BOX BUNDLING PRESS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iosif DUMITRESCU

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available In municipal solid waste, aluminum is the main nonferrous metal, approximately 80- 85% of the total nonferrous metals. The income per ton gained from aluminum recuperation is 20 times higher than from glass, steel boxes or paper recuperation. The object of this paper is the design of a 300 kN press for aluminum box bundling.

  19. Box-Cox transformation for QTL mapping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Runqing; Yi, Nengjun; Xu, Shizhong

    2006-01-01

    The maximum likelihood method of QTL mapping assumes that the phenotypic values of a quantitative trait follow a normal distribution. If the assumption is violated, some forms of transformation should be taken to make the assumption approximately true. The Box-Cox transformation is a general transformation method which can be applied to many different types of data. The flexibility of the Box-Cox transformation is due to a variable, called transformation factor, appearing in the Box-Cox formula. We developed a maximum likelihood method that treats the transformation factor as an unknown parameter, which is estimated from the data simultaneously along with the QTL parameters. The method makes an objective choice of data transformation and thus can be applied to QTL analysis for many different types of data. Simulation studies show that (1) Box-Cox transformation can substantially increase the power of QTL detection; (2) Box-Cox transformation can replace some specialized transformation methods that are commonly used in QTL mapping; and (3) applying the Box-Cox transformation to data already normally distributed does not harm the result.

  20. Load forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mak, H.

    1995-01-01

    Slides used in a presentation at The Power of Change Conference in Vancouver, BC in April 1995 about the changing needs for load forecasting were presented. Technological innovations and population increase were said to be the prime driving forces behind the changing needs in load forecasting. Structural changes, market place changes, electricity supply planning changes, and changes in planning objectives were other factors discussed. It was concluded that load forecasting was a form of information gathering, that provided important market intelligence

  1. Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

  2. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  3. Standards and interdisciplinary treatment of boxing injuries of the head in professional boxing on the basis of an IBF World Championship Fight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dragu, Adrian; Unglaub, Frank; Radomirovic, Sinisa; Schnürer, Stefan; Wagner, Walter; Horch, Raymund E; Hell, Berthold

    2010-12-01

    Boxing injuries are well known in hobby boxing as well as in professional boxing. Especially in professional boxing it is of great importance to implement and follow prevention-, diagnosis- and therapy-standards in order to prevent or at least to minimize injuries of the athlete. The utmost aim would be to establish international prevention-, diagnosis- and therapy-standards for boxing injuries in professional boxing. However, this aim is on a short run unrealistic, as there are too many different professional boxing organisations with different regulations. A realistic short term aim would be to develop a national standard in order to unify the management and medical treatment of boxing injuries in professional boxing. We present the management and interdisciplinary treatment of a professional boxer with a bilateral open fracture of the mandible during a middle weight IBF World Championship Fight. On the basis of this case we want to present and discuss the possibilities of an interdisciplinary and successful medical treatment. In order to prevent or minimize boxing injuries of professional boxers, annual MRI-Scans of the head and neck have to be performed as prevention standard. Furthermore, neurocognitive tests must be performed on a regular basis. Boxing injuries in professional boxing need an interdisciplinary, unbiased and complex analysis directly at the boxing ring. The treatment of the injuries should be only performed in medical centres and thus under constant parameters. The needed qualifications must be learned in mandatory national licence courses of boxing physicians, referees and promoters.

  4. The BOXES Methodology Black Box Dynamic Control

    CERN Document Server

    Russell, David W

    2012-01-01

    Robust control mechanisms customarily require knowledge of the system’s describing equations which may be of the high order differential type.  In order to produce these equations, mathematical models can often be derived and correlated with measured dynamic behavior.  There are two flaws in this approach one is the level of inexactness introduced by linearizations and the other when no model is apparent.  Several years ago a new genre of control systems came to light that are much less dependent on differential models such as fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms. Both of these soft computing solutions require quite considerable a priori system knowledge to create a control scheme and sometimes complicated training program before they can be implemented in a real world dynamic system. Michie and Chambers’ BOXES methodology created a black box system that was designed to control a mechanically unstable system with very little a priori system knowledge, linearization or approximation.  All the method need...

  5. Short-term residential load forecasting: Impact of calendar effects and forecast granularity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lusis, Peter; Khalilpour, Kaveh Rajab; Andrew, Lachlan

    2017-01-01

    forecasting for a single-customer or even down at an appliance level. Access to high resolution data from smart meters has enabled the research community to assess conventional load forecasting techniques and develop new forecasting strategies suitable for demand-side disaggregated loads. This paper studies...... how calendar effects, forecasting granularity and the length of the training set affect the accuracy of a day-ahead load forecast for residential customers. Root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized RMSE were used as forecast error metrics. Regression trees, neural networks, and support vector...... regression yielded similar average RMSE results, but statistical analysis showed that regression trees technique is significantly better. The use of historical load profiles with daily and weekly seasonality, combined with weather data, leaves the explicit calendar effects a very low predictive power...

  6. Glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Eisert, G.A.

    1979-01-01

    An arrangement for effecting access for performing work within a glove box comprises an elongate arm-length impermeable flexible sleeve, a fitting having an aperture therethrough, adapted to be secured in sealing relation in a port, in a wall of the glove box, the fitting including an outwardly extending lip having at least one continuous groove extending around its outer periphery, one end of the sleeve extending through the aperture in fitting and being folded back against the outer periphery of the lip, a resilient fastening ring securing the sleeve in sealing engagement in the groove, clamping means securing the sleeves to the lip and a glove secured in sealing relation via a bushing to the other end of the sleeve. (author)

  7. Magnetorotational Dynamo Action in the Shearing Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Justin; Boldyrev, Stanislav

    2017-10-01

    Magnetic dynamo action caused by the magnetorotational instability is studied in the shearing-box approximation with no imposed net magnetic flux. Consistent with recent studies, the dynamo action is found to be sensitive to the aspect ratio of the box: it is much easier to obtain in tall boxes (stretched in the direction normal to the disk plane) than in long boxes (stretched in the radial direction). Our direct numerical simulations indicate that the dynamo is possible in both cases, given a large enough magnetic Reynolds number. To explain the relatively larger effort required to obtain the dynamo action in a long box, we propose that the turbulent eddies caused by the instability most efficiently fold and mix the magnetic field lines in the radial direction. As a result, in the long box the scale of the generated strong azimuthal (stream-wise directed) magnetic field is always comparable to the scale of the turbulent eddies. In contrast, in the tall box the azimuthal magnetic flux spreads in the vertical direction over a distance exceeding the scale of the turbulent eddies. As a result, different vertical sections of the tall box are permeated by large-scale nonzero azimuthal magnetic fluxes, facilitating the instability. NSF AGS-1261659, Vilas Associates Award, NSF-Teragrid Project TG-PHY110016.

  8. Strategic Forecasting

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: The purpose of this article is to present an overview of the area of strategic forecasting and its research directions and to put forward some ideas for improving management decisions. Design/methodology/approach: This article is conceptual but also informed by the author’s long contact...... and collaboration with various business firms. It starts by presenting an overview of the area and argues that the area is as much a way of thinking as a toolbox of theories and methodologies. It then spells out a number of research directions and ideas for management. Findings: Strategic forecasting is seen...... as a rebirth of long range planning, albeit with new methods and theories. Firms should make the building of strategic forecasting capability a priority. Research limitations/implications: The article subdivides strategic forecasting into three research avenues and suggests avenues for further research efforts...

  9. Spatial electric load forecasting

    CERN Document Server

    Willis, H Lee

    2002-01-01

    Containing 12 new chapters, this second edition contains offers increased-coverage of weather correction and normalization of forecasts, anticipation of redevelopment, determining the validity of announced developments, and minimizing risk from over- or under-planning. It provides specific examples and detailed explanations of key points to consider for both standard and unusual utility forecasting situations, information on new algorithms and concepts in forecasting, a review of forecasting pitfalls and mistakes, case studies depicting challenging forecast environments, and load models illustrating various types of demand.

  10. Opportunities in white-box cryptography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Michiels, W.

    White-box cryptography is the discipline of implementing a cryptographic algorithm in software such that an adversary will have difficulty extracting the cryptographic key. This approach assumes that the adversary has full access to and full control over the implementation's execution. White-box

  11. Seismic stability of a standalone glove box structure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saraswat, A., E-mail: anupams@barc.gov.in [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Reddy, G.R. [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India); Ghosh, S. [Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Mumbai (India); Ghosh, A.K.; Kumar, Arun [Bhabha Atomic Research Centre, Mumbai (India)

    2014-09-15

    Highlights: • Glove box is a leak tight, safety related structure used for handling radiotoxic materials. • To study the seismic performance of a freestanding glove box, extensive shake table testing has been carried out. • Glove box maintained structural integrity and leak tightness up to design basis earthquake loading. • Detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the structure is developed and analyzed by using direct time integration methods. • Simplified numerical method is proposed and successfully applied, to quickly estimate sliding displacement and determine upper bounds for it. - Abstract: In a nuclear fuel cycle facility, radiotoxic materials are being handled in freestanding leak tight enclosures called glove boxes (GBs). These glove boxes act as a primary confinement for the radiotoxic materials. Glove boxes are designed as per codal requirements for class I component. They are designed to withstand extreme level of earthquake loading with a return period of 10,000 years. To evaluate seismic performance of the glove box, there is a need to check the stability (sliding and overturning), structural integrity (stresses and strains) and leak tightness under earthquake loading. Extensive shake table experiments were conducted on a single standalone glove box. Actual laboratory conditions were simulated during testing to check the response. After extensive shake table testing, glove box structure was also analyzed using finite element (FE) software. Detailed three-dimensional model of glove box structure was developed and analyzed using nonlinear time history method. It was observed that finite element methods could be utilized to accurately predict dynamic response of glove box structure. This paper discusses the details and results of shake table testing and methodology used for modelling and analysing freestanding glove box structure under seismic loading. In addition, simplified numerical procedure, developed using energy conservation

  12. Seismic stability of a standalone glove box structure

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Saraswat, A.; Reddy, G.R.; Ghosh, S.; Ghosh, A.K.; Kumar, Arun

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Glove box is a leak tight, safety related structure used for handling radiotoxic materials. • To study the seismic performance of a freestanding glove box, extensive shake table testing has been carried out. • Glove box maintained structural integrity and leak tightness up to design basis earthquake loading. • Detailed three-dimensional finite element model of the structure is developed and analyzed by using direct time integration methods. • Simplified numerical method is proposed and successfully applied, to quickly estimate sliding displacement and determine upper bounds for it. - Abstract: In a nuclear fuel cycle facility, radiotoxic materials are being handled in freestanding leak tight enclosures called glove boxes (GBs). These glove boxes act as a primary confinement for the radiotoxic materials. Glove boxes are designed as per codal requirements for class I component. They are designed to withstand extreme level of earthquake loading with a return period of 10,000 years. To evaluate seismic performance of the glove box, there is a need to check the stability (sliding and overturning), structural integrity (stresses and strains) and leak tightness under earthquake loading. Extensive shake table experiments were conducted on a single standalone glove box. Actual laboratory conditions were simulated during testing to check the response. After extensive shake table testing, glove box structure was also analyzed using finite element (FE) software. Detailed three-dimensional model of glove box structure was developed and analyzed using nonlinear time history method. It was observed that finite element methods could be utilized to accurately predict dynamic response of glove box structure. This paper discusses the details and results of shake table testing and methodology used for modelling and analysing freestanding glove box structure under seismic loading. In addition, simplified numerical procedure, developed using energy conservation

  13. GLASS BOX

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Curtis, Laura

    2008-01-01

    The goals of this effort were to develop Glass Box capabilities to allow for the capturing of analyst activities and the associated data resources, track and log the results of automated processing...

  14. Electricity demand forecasting techniques

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gnanalingam, K.

    1994-01-01

    Electricity demand forecasting plays an important role in power generation. The two areas of data that have to be forecasted in a power system are peak demand which determines the capacity (MW) of the plant required and annual energy demand (GWH). Methods used in electricity demand forecasting include time trend analysis and econometric methods. In forecasting, identification of manpower demand, identification of key planning factors, decision on planning horizon, differentiation between prediction and projection (i.e. development of different scenarios) and choosing from different forecasting techniques are important

  15. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Ma, Xuejiao; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-04-17

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  16. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lu Bai

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies.

  17. Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Lu; Wang, Jianzhou; Lu, Haiyan

    2018-01-01

    Air pollution is defined as a phenomenon harmful to the ecological system and the normal conditions of human existence and development when some substances in the atmosphere exceed a certain concentration. In the face of increasingly serious environmental pollution problems, scholars have conducted a significant quantity of related research, and in those studies, the forecasting of air pollution has been of paramount importance. As a precaution, the air pollution forecast is the basis for taking effective pollution control measures, and accurate forecasting of air pollution has become an important task. Extensive research indicates that the methods of air pollution forecasting can be broadly divided into three classical categories: statistical forecasting methods, artificial intelligence methods, and numerical forecasting methods. More recently, some hybrid models have been proposed, which can improve the forecast accuracy. To provide a clear perspective on air pollution forecasting, this study reviews the theory and application of those forecasting models. In addition, based on a comparison of different forecasting methods, the advantages and disadvantages of some methods of forecasting are also provided. This study aims to provide an overview of air pollution forecasting methods for easy access and reference by researchers, which will be helpful in further studies. PMID:29673227

  18. Operational 0-3 h probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts: Recent performance and potential enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokol, Z.; Kitzmiller, D.; Pešice, P.; Guan, S.

    2009-05-01

    The NOAA National Weather Service has maintained an automated, centralized 0-3 h prediction system for probabilistic quantitative precipitation forecasts since 2001. This advective-statistical system (ADSTAT) produces probabilities that rainfall will exceed multiple threshold values up to 50 mm at some location within a 40-km grid box. Operational characteristics and development methods for the system are described. Although development data were stratified by season and time of day, ADSTAT utilizes only a single set of nation-wide equations that relate predictor variables derived from radar reflectivity, lightning, satellite infrared temperatures, and numerical prediction model output to rainfall occurrence. A verification study documented herein showed that the operational ADSTAT reliably models regional variations in the relative frequency of heavy rain events. This was true even in the western United States, where no regional-scale, gridded hourly precipitation data were available during the development period in the 1990s. An effort was recently launched to improve the quality of ADSTAT forecasts by regionalizing the prediction equations and to adapt the model for application in the Czech Republic. We have experimented with incorporating various levels of regional specificity in the probability equations. The geographic localization study showed that in the warm season, regional climate differences and variations in the diurnal temperature cycle have a marked effect on the predictor-predictand relationships, and thus regionalization would lead to better statistical reliability in the forecasts.

  19. The lithium vapor box divertor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldston, R J; Schwartz, J; Myers, R

    2016-01-01

    It has long been recognized that volumetric dissipation of the plasma heat flux from a fusion power system is preferable to its localized impingement on a material surface. Volumetric dissipation mitigates both the anticipated very high heat flux and intense particle-induced damage due to sputtering. Recent projections to a tokamak demonstration power plant suggest an immense upstream parallel heat flux, of order 20 GW m −2 , implying that fully detached operation may be a requirement for the success of fusion power. Building on pioneering work on the use of lithium by Nagayama et al and by Ono et al as well as earlier work on the gas box divertor by Watkins and Rebut, we present here a concept for a lithium vapor box divertor, in which lithium vapor extracts momentum and energy from a fusion-power-plant divertor plasma, using fully volumetric processes. At the high powers and pressures that are projected this requires a high density of lithium vapor, which must be isolated from the main plasma in order to avoid lithium build-up on the chamber walls or in the plasma. Isolation is achieved through a powerful multi-box differential pumping scheme available only for condensable vapors. The preliminary box-wise calculations are encouraging, but much more work is required to demonstrate the practical viability of this scheme, taking into account at least 2D plasma and vapor flows within and between the vapor boxes and out of the vapor boxes to the main plasma. (paper)

  20. Forecast Accuracy Uncertainty and Momentum

    OpenAIRE

    Bing Han; Dong Hong; Mitch Warachka

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate that stock price momentum and earnings momentum can result from uncertainty surrounding the accuracy of cash flow forecasts. Our model has multiple information sources issuing cash flow forecasts for a stock. The investor combines these forecasts into an aggregate cash flow estimate that has minimal mean-squared forecast error. This aggregate estimate weights each cash flow forecast by the estimated accuracy of its issuer, which is obtained from their past forecast errors. Mome...

  1. Policy statement—Boxing participation by children and adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Purcell, Laura; LeBlanc, Claire M A

    2011-09-01

    Thousands of boys and girls younger than 19 years participate in boxing in North America. Although boxing provides benefits for participants, including exercise, self-discipline, and self-confidence, the sport of boxing encourages and rewards deliberate blows to the head and face. Participants in boxing are at risk of head, face, and neck injuries, including chronic and even fatal neurologic injuries. Concussions are one of the most common injuries that occur with boxing. Because of the risk of head and facial injuries, the American Academy of Pediatrics and the Canadian Paediatric Society oppose boxing as a sport for children and adolescents. These organizations recommend that physicians vigorously oppose boxing in youth and encourage patients to participate in alternative sports in which intentional head blows are not central to the sport.

  2. Spirit Boxes: Expressions of Culture.

    Science.gov (United States)

    DeMuro, Ted

    1984-01-01

    After studying the culture and art of the ancient civilizations of South America, Mesopotamia, Greece, and Egypt, secondary level art students made spirit boxes as expressions of the various cultures. How to make the boxes and how to prepare the face molds are described. (RM)

  3. Decontamination of TRU glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Crawford, J.H.

    1978-03-01

    Two glove boxes that had been used for work with transuranic nuclides (TRU) for about 12 years were decontaminated in a test program to collect data for developing a decontamination facility for large equipment highly contaminated with alpha emitters. A simple chemical technique consisting of a cycle of water flushes and alkaline permanganate and oxalic acid washes was used for both boxes. The test showed that glove boxes and similar equipment that are grossly contaminated with transuranic nuclides can be decontaminated to the current DIE nonretrievable disposal guide of <10 nCi TRU/g with a moderate amount of decontamination solution and manpower. Decontamination of the first box from an estimated 1.3 Ci to about 5 mCi (6 nCi/g) required 1.3 gallons of decontamination solution and 0.03 man-hour of work for each square foot of surface area. The second box was decontaminated from an estimated 3.4 Ci to about 2.8 mCi (4.2 nCi/g) using 0.9 gallon of decontamination solution and 0.02 man-hour for each square foot of surface area. Further reductions in contamination were achieved by repetitive decontamination cycles, but the effectiveness of the technique decreased sharply after the initial cycle

  4. Grey-Box Modelling of Pharmacokinetic /Pharmacodynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tornøe, Christoffer Wenzel; Jacobsen, Judith L.; Pedersen, Oluf

    2004-01-01

    Grey-box pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamic (PK/PD) modelling is presented as a promising way of modelling PK/PD systems. The concept behind grey-box modelling is based on combining physiological knowledge along with information from data in the estimation of model parameters. Grey-box modelling...

  5. Packing a cake into a box

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-01-01

    Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky's question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

  6. Packing a cake into a box

    KAUST Repository

    Skopenkov, Mikhail

    2011-05-01

    Given a triangular cake and a box in the shape of its mirror image, how can the cake be cut into a minimal number of pieces so that it can be put into the box? The cake has icing, so we are not allowed to put it into the box upside down. V. G. Boltyansky asked this question in 1977 and showed that three pieces always suffice. In this paper we provide examples of cakes that cannot be cut into two pieces to be put into the box. This shows that three is the answer to Boltyansky\\'s question. We also give examples of cakes which can be cut into two pieces. © THE MATHEMATICAL ASSOCIATION OF AMERICA.

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    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. khuf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kont Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kyng Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kcwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kflg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ktup Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. ktop Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kink Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. krut Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbli Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kaoo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. klit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. panc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ktcl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. pgwt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kpsp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kbih Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdnl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kart Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kilm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kpne Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kabi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ptpn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kblf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kosh Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kpdt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kewr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kiso Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kpga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kbkw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kmyl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. krbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kril Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ksus Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. padq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kbil Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. krfd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kdug Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. ktix Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcod Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. kslk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kgfl Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. kguc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmlu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kbff Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. ksmn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kdro Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kmce Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. ktpa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmot Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kcre Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. klws Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kotm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. khqm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kabr Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. klal Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. kelp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kecg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khbg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kpbf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. konp Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. pkwa Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. ktvf Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. paga Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. khks Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kdsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. kpsm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kgrb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kgmu Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. papg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. kbgm Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. pamc Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. klrd Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. ksan Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. patk Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. kowb Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. klru Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. kfxe Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. kjct Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kcrg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. paaq Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  6. kaex Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  7. klbx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  8. kmia Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  9. kpit Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  10. kcrw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  11. paen Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  12. kast Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  13. kuin Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  14. kmht Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  15. krsw Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  16. kbpi Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  17. kcys Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  18. kflo Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  19. kphx Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  20. pakn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  1. pabt Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  2. krdg Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  3. khdn Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  4. kjac Terminal Aerodrome Forecast

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — TAF (terminal aerodrome forecast or terminal area forecast) is a format for reporting weather forecast information, particularly as it relates to aviation. TAFs are...

  5. Robust Approaches to Forecasting

    OpenAIRE

    Jennifer Castle; David Hendry; Michael P. Clements

    2014-01-01

    We investigate alternative robust approaches to forecasting, using a new class of robust devices, contrasted with equilibrium correction models. Their forecasting properties are derived facing a range of likely empirical problems at the forecast origin, including measurement errors, implulses, omitted variables, unanticipated location shifts and incorrectly included variables that experience a shift. We derive the resulting forecast biases and error variances, and indicate when the methods ar...

  6. Ion-wake Field inside a Glass Box

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, Mudi; Dropmann, Michael; Zhang, Bo; Matthews, Lorin S.; Hyde, Truell W.

    2016-01-01

    The confinement provided by a glass box is proving ideal for the formation of vertically aligned structures and a convenient method for controlling the number of dust particles comprising these dust structures, as well as their size and shape. In this paper, the electronic confinement of the glass box is mapped and the particle interactions between the particle pairs inside the glass box are measured. The ion-wake field is shown to exist within the glass box and its vertical and horizontal ex...

  7. Water-cooled target-box design at LAMPF

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grisham, D.; Lambert, J.

    1983-01-01

    The target boxes in the main experimental beam line (Line A) at the Clinton P. Anderson Meson Physics Facility (LAMPF) have operated since 1976. A program of replacing the boxes is underway. This paper will present past history, design considerations, calculational results and the final box design

  8. Inaccuracy in traffic forecasts

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flyvbjerg, Bent; Holm, Mette K. Skamris; Buhl, Søren Ladegaard

    2006-01-01

    This paper presents results from the first statistically significant study of traffic forecasts in transportation infrastructure projects. The sample used is the largest of its kind, covering 210 projects in 14 nations worth US$58 billion. The study shows with very high statistical significance...... that forecasters generally do a poor job of estimating the demand for transportation infrastructure projects. The result is substantial downside financial and economic risk. Forecasts have not become more accurate over the 30-year period studied. If techniques and skills for arriving at accurate demand forecasts...... forecasting. Highly inaccurate traffic forecasts combined with large standard deviations translate into large financial and economic risks. But such risks are typically ignored or downplayed by planners and decision-makers, to the detriment of social and economic welfare. The paper presents the data...

  9. Construction of dry-boxes for plutonium metallurgy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grison, E.; Pascard, R.

    1958-01-01

    The dry-boxes used at Chatillon are of two main types: a) boxes with a metal frame work of welded angle-pieces, panels of plexiglass, bakelite, duralumin, etc... They include a standard panel which enables them to be connected up to the contaminated repairs workshop; b) boxes made entirely of welded plastic. The working face only is of plexiglas held by screw clamps to a pure rubber joint. These boxes, which cannot be connected to the contaminated workshop, are generally reserved for small pieces of chemical apparatus. None has yet been used for working under argon, although their airtightness is excellent. After an interval of several hours, in fact, no decrease in the pressure inside the box can be detected. Several means can be adopted to ensure that the joints between panels and mountings are absolutely air-tight. Up to the present we are using three types of box with metal framework at the same time, without being able to make a definitive choice. (author) [fr

  10. 49 CFR 178.515 - Standards for reconstituted wood boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... wood boxes. (a) The identification code for a reconstituted wood box is 4F. (b) Construction requirements for reconstituted wood boxes are as follows: (1) The walls of boxes must be made of water... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for reconstituted wood boxes. 178.515...

  11. Ocular complications of boxing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bianco, M; Vaiano, A; Colella, F; Coccimiglio, F; Moscetti, M; Palmieri, V; Focosi, F; Zeppilli, P; Vinger, P

    2005-01-01

    Objectives: To investigate the prevalence of ocular injuries in a large population of boxers over a period of 16 years, in particular, the most severe lesions that may be vision threatening. Methods: Clinical records of the medical archive of the Italian Boxing Federation were analysed. A total of 1032 boxers were examined from February 1982 to October 1998. A complete ophthalmological history was available for 956, who formed the study population (a total of 10 697 examinations). The following data were collected: age when started boxing; duration of competitive boxing career (from the date of the first bout); weight category; a thorough ocular history. The following investigations were carried out: measurement of visual acuity and visual fields, anterior segment inspection, applanation tonometry, gonioscopy, and examination of ocular fundus. Eighty age matched healthy subjects, who had never boxed, formed the control group. Results: Of the 956 boxers examined, 428 were amateur (44.8%) and 528 professional (55.2%). The median age at first examination was 23.1 (4.3) years (range 15–36). The prevalence of conjunctival, corneal, lenticular, vitreal, ocular papilla, and retinal alterations in the study population was 40.9% compared with 3.1% in the control group (p⩽0.0001). The prevalence of serious ocular findings (angle, lens, macula, and peripheral retina alterations) was 5.6% in boxers and 3.1% in controls (NS). Conclusions: Boxing does not result in a higher prevalence of severe ocular lesions than in the general population. However, the prevalence of milder lesions (in particular with regard to the conjunctiva and cornea) is noteworthy, justifying the need for adequate ophthalmological surveillance. PMID:15665199

  12. An impact analysis of forecasting methods and forecasting parameters on bullwhip effect

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silitonga, R. Y. H.; Jelly, N.

    2018-04-01

    Bullwhip effect is an increase of variance of demand fluctuation from downstream to upstream of supply chain. Forecasting methods and forecasting parameters were recognized as some factors that affect bullwhip phenomena. To study these factors, we can develop simulations. There are several ways to simulate bullwhip effect in previous studies, such as mathematical equation modelling, information control modelling, computer program, and many more. In this study a spreadsheet program named Bullwhip Explorer was used to simulate bullwhip effect. Several scenarios were developed to show the change in bullwhip effect ratio because of the difference in forecasting methods and forecasting parameters. Forecasting methods used were mean demand, moving average, exponential smoothing, demand signalling, and minimum expected mean squared error. Forecasting parameters were moving average period, smoothing parameter, signalling factor, and safety stock factor. It showed that decreasing moving average period, increasing smoothing parameter, increasing signalling factor can create bigger bullwhip effect ratio. Meanwhile, safety stock factor had no impact to bullwhip effect.

  13. 49 CFR 178.517 - Standards for plastic boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for plastic boxes. 178.517 Section 178... PACKAGINGS Non-bulk Performance-Oriented Packaging Standards § 178.517 Standards for plastic boxes. (a) The following are identification codes for plastic boxes: (1) 4H1 for an expanded plastic box; and (2) 4H2 for a...

  14. Nonneurologic emergencies in boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coletta, Domenic F

    2009-10-01

    Professional boxing has done an admirable job in promoting safety standards in its particular sport. However, injuries occur during the normal course of competition and, unfortunately, an occasional life-threatening emergency may arise. Although most common medical emergencies in boxing are injuries from closed head trauma, in this article those infrequent but potentially catastrophic nonneurologic conditions are reviewed along with some less serious emergencies that the physician must be prepared to address.

  15. Glove boxes. Dimensions and requirements. Draft

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1985-07-01

    The standard is to be applied to work done in glove-boxes, whereby either the personnel need to be protected from the damaging effects of the materials being handled, or the materials from the effects of the environment. It is to be applied to glove-boxes in which substances are handled which emit ionising radiation (radioactive substances). This norm is not restricted to glove-boxes in which processes are carried out on a technique scale. In accordance with this norm, only those pressures and temperatures are allowed to be present in the glove-boxes, that do not offer significantly from the work areas. Alongside the stipulations of this standard regard is also always to be taken of the regulations in the radiation protection ordinance. (orig./HP) [de

  16. Introduction to the Box Particle Filtering

    OpenAIRE

    Gning, Amadou; Ristic, B; Mihaylova, Lyudmila; Abdallah, F.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a novel method for solving nonlinear filtering problems. This approach is particularly appealing in practical situations involving imprecise stochastic measurements, thus resulting in very broad posterior densities. It relies on the concept of a box particle, which occupies a small and controllable rectangular region having a non-zero volume in the state space. Key advantages of the box particle filter (Box-PF) against the standard particle filter (PF) are in its reduced c...

  17. Forecasting in Planning

    OpenAIRE

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively. Quantitative forecasting is illustrated with a brief overview of time series methods. Both qualitative and quantitative methods are illustrated by an example. The role and relative importance of forec...

  18. Amateur boxing: physical and physiological attributes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chaabène, Helmi; Tabben, Montassar; Mkaouer, Bessem; Franchini, Emerson; Negra, Yassine; Hammami, Mehrez; Amara, Samiha; Chaabène, Raja Bouguezzi; Hachana, Younés

    2015-03-01

    Boxing is one of the oldest combat sports. The aim of the current review is to critically analyze the amateur boxer's physical and physiological characteristics and to provide practical recommendations for training as well as new areas of scientific research. High-level male and female boxers show a propensity for low body fat levels. Although studies on boxer somatotypes are limited, the available information shows that elite-level male boxers are characterized by a higher proportion of mesomorphy with a well-developed muscle mass and a low body fat level. To help support the overall metabolic demands of a boxing match and to accelerate the recovery process between rounds, athletes of both sexes require a high level of cardiorespiratory fitness. International boxers show a high peak and mean anaerobic power output. Muscle strength in both the upper and lower limbs is paramount for a fighter's victory and is one of the keys to success in boxing. As boxing punches are brief actions and very dynamic, high-level boxing performance requires well-developed muscle power in both the upper and lower limbs. Albeit limited, the available studies reveal that isometric strength is linked to high-level boxing performance. Future investigations into the physical and physiological attributes of boxers are required to enrich the current data set and to help create a suitable training program.

  19. Influence of dimension box differences and time differences during operations of red box for motorcycles at signalized intersection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulyadi, Agah Muhammad

    2017-11-01

    Performance of signalized intersection has declined due to a large number of motorcycles. The number of motorcycles reached 98.2 million units and the composition of motorcycles has reached around 81.7% of the total composition of vehicles in Indonesia (AISI, 2017). To solve that problem, the red box for motorcycles are provided at the signalized intersection. Red box for the motorcycle at signalized intersections was developed from the concept of Advance Stop Line (ASL) for bicycles. The Red Box was developed to split the queue between motorcycles and other vehicles when waiting at red light. This paper aims to evaluate the influence of the red box dimension and red time operation differences. The survey was conducted as many as 30 cycles of traffic signals per day. The data were analyzed using software IBM SPSS Statistics 20 by using Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) to obtain p-value (significant). The analysis shows that there are insignificant influences between the occupancy rates to the dimension of Red Box. Furthermore, that there is a significant difference that shows the dependency of only motorcycles in the Red Box Area towards red time operation.

  20. Ensemble Forecasts with Useful Skill-Spread Relationships for African meningitis and Asia Streamflow Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hopson, T. M.

    2014-12-01

    One potential benefit of an ensemble prediction system (EPS) is its capacity to forecast its own forecast error through the ensemble spread-error relationship. In practice, an EPS is often quite limited in its ability to represent the variable expectation of forecast error through the variable dispersion of the ensemble, and perhaps more fundamentally, in its ability to provide enough variability in the ensembles dispersion to make the skill-spread relationship even potentially useful (irrespective of whether the EPS is well-calibrated or not). In this paper we examine the ensemble skill-spread relationship of an ensemble constructed from the TIGGE (THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) dataset of global forecasts and a combination of multi-model and post-processing approaches. Both of the multi-model and post-processing techniques are based on quantile regression (QR) under a step-wise forward selection framework leading to ensemble forecasts with both good reliability and sharpness. The methodology utilizes the ensemble's ability to self-diagnose forecast instability to produce calibrated forecasts with informative skill-spread relationships. A context for these concepts is provided by assessing the constructed ensemble in forecasting district-level humidity impacting the incidence of meningitis in the meningitis belt of Africa, and in forecasting flooding events in the Brahmaputra and Ganges basins of South Asia.

  1. Uncertainty Assessment: Reservoir Inflow Forecasting with Ensemble Precipitation Forecasts and HEC-HMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheng-Chi Yang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available During an extreme event, having accurate inflow forecasting with enough lead time helps reservoir operators decrease the impact of floods downstream. Furthermore, being able to efficiently operate reservoirs could help maximize flood protection while saving water for drier times of the year. This study combines ensemble quantitative precipitation forecasts and a hydrological model to provide a 3-day reservoir inflow in the Shihmen Reservoir, Taiwan. A total of six historical typhoons were used for model calibration, validation, and application. An understanding of cascaded uncertainties from the numerical weather model through the hydrological model is necessary for a better use for forecasting. This study thus conducted an assessment of forecast uncertainty on magnitude and timing of peak and cumulative inflows. It found that using the ensemble-mean had less uncertainty than randomly selecting individual member. The inflow forecasts with shorter length of cumulative time had a higher uncertainty. The results showed that using the ensemble precipitation forecasts with the hydrological model would have the advantage of extra lead time and serve as a valuable reference for operating reservoirs.

  2. Using Temperature Forecasts to Improve Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts in the Colorado and Rio Grande Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lehner, F.; Wood, A.; Llewellyn, D.; Blatchford, D. B.; Goodbody, A. G.; Pappenberger, F.

    2017-12-01

    Recent studies have documented the influence of increasing temperature on streamflow across the American West, including snow-melt driven rivers such as the Colorado or Rio Grande. At the same time, some basins are reporting decreasing skill in seasonal streamflow forecasts, termed water supply forecasts (WSFs), over the recent decade. While the skill in seasonal precipitation forecasts from dynamical models remains low, their skill in predicting seasonal temperature variations could potentially be harvested for WSFs to account for non-stationarity in regional temperatures. Here, we investigate whether WSF skill can be improved by incorporating seasonal temperature forecasts from dynamical forecasting models (from the North American Multi Model Ensemble and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast System 4) into traditional statistical forecast models. We find improved streamflow forecast skill relative to traditional WSF approaches in a majority of headwater locations in the Colorado and Rio Grande basins. Incorporation of temperature into WSFs thus provides a promising avenue to increase the robustness of current forecasting techniques in the face of continued regional warming.

  3. About the National Forecast Chart

    Science.gov (United States)

    code. Press enter or select the go button to submit request Local forecast by "City, St" or Prediction Center on Twitter NCEP Quarterly Newsletter WPC Home Analyses and Forecasts National Forecast to all federal, state, and local government web resources and services. The National Forecast Charts

  4. Short-term natural gas consumption forecasting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Potocnik, P.; Govekar, E.; Grabec, I.

    2007-01-01

    Energy forecasting requirements for Slovenia's natural gas market were investigated along with the cycles of natural gas consumption. This paper presented a short-term natural gas forecasting approach where the daily, weekly and yearly gas consumption were analyzed and the information obtained was incorporated into the forecasting model for hourly forecasting for the next day. The natural gas market depends on forecasting in order to optimize the leasing of storage capacities. As such, natural gas distribution companies have an economic incentive to accurately forecast their future gas consumption. The authors proposed a forecasting model with the following properties: two submodels for the winter and summer seasons; input variables including past consumption data, weather data, weather forecasts and basic cycle indexes; and, a hierarchical forecasting structure in which a daily model was used as the basis, with the hourly forecast obtained by modeling the relative daily profile. This proposed method was illustrated by a forecasting example for Slovenia's natural gas market. 11 refs., 11 figs

  5. Forecasting Uncertainty in Electricity Smart Meter Data by Boosting Additive Quantile Regression

    KAUST Repository

    Taieb, Souhaib Ben

    2016-03-02

    Smart electricity meters are currently deployed in millions of households to collect detailed individual electricity consumption data. Compared with traditional electricity data based on aggregated consumption, smart meter data are much more volatile and less predictable. There is a need within the energy industry for probabilistic forecasts of household electricity consumption to quantify the uncertainty of future electricity demand in order to undertake appropriate planning of generation and distribution. We propose to estimate an additive quantile regression model for a set of quantiles of the future distribution using a boosting procedure. By doing so, we can benefit from flexible and interpretable models, which include an automatic variable selection. We compare our approach with three benchmark methods on both aggregated and disaggregated scales using a smart meter data set collected from 3639 households in Ireland at 30-min intervals over a period of 1.5 years. The empirical results demonstrate that our approach based on quantile regression provides better forecast accuracy for disaggregated demand, while the traditional approach based on a normality assumption (possibly after an appropriate Box-Cox transformation) is a better approximation for aggregated demand. These results are particularly useful since more energy data will become available at the disaggregated level in the future.

  6. Operational forecasting based on a modified Weather Research and Forecasting model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lundquist, J; Glascoe, L; Obrecht, J

    2010-03-18

    Accurate short-term forecasts of wind resources are required for efficient wind farm operation and ultimately for the integration of large amounts of wind-generated power into electrical grids. Siemens Energy Inc. and Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, with the University of Colorado at Boulder, are collaborating on the design of an operational forecasting system for large wind farms. The basis of the system is the numerical weather prediction tool, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model; large-eddy simulations and data assimilation approaches are used to refine and tailor the forecasting system. Representation of the atmospheric boundary layer is modified, based on high-resolution large-eddy simulations of the atmospheric boundary. These large-eddy simulations incorporate wake effects from upwind turbines on downwind turbines as well as represent complex atmospheric variability due to complex terrain and surface features as well as atmospheric stability. Real-time hub-height wind speed and other meteorological data streams from existing wind farms are incorporated into the modeling system to enable uncertainty quantification through probabilistic forecasts. A companion investigation has identified optimal boundary-layer physics options for low-level forecasts in complex terrain, toward employing decadal WRF simulations to anticipate large-scale changes in wind resource availability due to global climate change.

  7. Using Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Climatologies to Initialize Gridded Lightning Threat Forecasts for East Central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lambert, Winnie; Sharp, David; Spratt, Scott; Volkmer, Matthew

    2005-01-01

    the mesoscale detail of the forecast, ultimately benefiting the end-users of the product. Several studies took place at the Florida State University (FSU) and NWS Tallahassee (TAE) for which they created daily flow regimes using Florida 1200 UTC synoptic soundings and CG strike densities from National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) data. The densities were created on a 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid for every hour of every day during the warm seasons in the years 1989-2004. The grids encompass an area that includes the entire state of Florida and adjacent Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico waters. Personnel at the two organizations provided this data and supporting software for the work performed by the AMU. The densities were first stratified by flow regime, then by time in 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-hour increments while maintaining the 2.5 km x 2.5 km grid resolution. A CG frequency of occurrence was calculated for each stratification and grid box by counting the number of days with lightning and dividing by the total number of days in the data set. New CG strike densities were calculated for each stratification and grid box by summing the strike number values over all warm seasons, then normalized by dividing the summed values by the number of lightning days. This makes the densities conditional on whether lightning occurred. The frequency climatology values will be used by forecasters as proxy inputs for lightning prObability, while the density climatology values will be used for CG amount. In addition to the benefits outlined above, these climatologies will provide improved temporal and spatial resolution, expansion of the lightning threat area to include adjacent coastal waters, and potential to extend the forecast to include the day-2 period. This presentation will describe the lightning threat index map, discuss the work done to create the maps initialized with climatological guidance, and show examples of the climatological CG lightning densities and frequencies of occurren

  8. 49 CFR 178.512 - Standards for steel or aluminum boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for steel or aluminum boxes. 178.512... aluminum boxes. (a) The following are identification codes for steel or aluminum boxes: (1) 4A for a steel box; and (2) 4B for an aluminum box. (b) Construction requirements for steel or aluminum boxes are as...

  9. Relativistic particle in a box

    OpenAIRE

    Alberto, P.; Fiolhais, Carlos; Gil, Victor

    1996-01-01

    The problem of a relativistic spin 1/2 particle confined to a one-dimensional box is solved in a way that resembles closely the solution of the well known quantum-mechanical textbook problem of a non-relativistic particle in a box. The energy levels and probability density are computed and compared with the non-relativistic case

  10. What Makes a Better Box?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moyer, Richard; Everett, Susan

    2010-01-01

    Every morning, many Americans start their day with a bowl of cereal. Some spend time while they eat breakfast reading the back of the cereal box, but few consider its size, shape, and construction, or realize that it was designed by an engineer. This article describes a lesson in which students design, build, and critique cereal boxes. The lesson…

  11. Infectious disease and boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Osric S

    2009-10-01

    There are no unique boxing diseases but certain factors contributing to the spread of illnesses apply strongly to the boxer, coach, and the training facility. This article examines the nature of the sport of boxing and its surrounding environment, and the likelihood of spread of infection through airborne, contact, or blood-borne routes of transmission. Evidence from other sports such as running, wrestling, and martial arts is included to help elucidate the pathophysiologic elements that could be identified in boxers.

  12. The applicability of a multitask boxing program using the BoxMaster ® for Parkinson’s disease

    OpenAIRE

    Domingos, Josefa; Loureiro, Rita; Godinho, Catarina; Dean, John; Ferreira, Joaquim J.

    2016-01-01

    Poster presented at the 4th World Parkinson Congress. Portland, Oregon, 20-23 September 2016 "Objective: To test the applicability of a multitasking boxing program using the BoxMaster® in individuals with Parkinson’s disease that combines motor, cognitive and vocal exercises." N/A

  13. Space Weather Forecasting at IZMIRAN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaidash, S. P.; Belov, A. V.; Abunina, M. A.; Abunin, A. A.

    2017-12-01

    Since 1998, the Institute of Terrestrial Magnetism, Ionosphere, and Radio Wave Propagation (IZMIRAN) has had an operating heliogeophysical service—the Center for Space Weather Forecasts. This center transfers the results of basic research in solar-terrestrial physics into daily forecasting of various space weather parameters for various lead times. The forecasts are promptly available to interested consumers. This article describes the center and the main types of forecasts it provides: solar and geomagnetic activity, magnetospheric electron fluxes, and probabilities of proton increases. The challenges associated with the forecasting of effects of coronal mass ejections and coronal holes are discussed. Verification data are provided for the center's forecasts.

  14. Business intelligence from social media: a study from the VAST Box Office Challenge.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Yafeng; Wang, Feng; Maciejewski, Ross

    2014-01-01

    With over 16 million tweets per hour, 600 new blog posts per minute, and 400 million active users on Facebook, businesses have begun searching for ways to turn real-time consumer-based posts into actionable intelligence. The goal is to extract information from this noisy, unstructured data and use it for trend analysis and prediction. Current practices support the idea that visual analytics (VA) can help enable the effective analysis of such data. However, empirical evidence demonstrating the effectiveness of a VA solution is still lacking. A proposed VA toolkit extracts data from Bitly and Twitter to predict movie revenue and ratings. Results from the 2013 VAST Box Office Challenge demonstrate the benefit of an interactive environment for predictive analysis, compared to a purely statistical modeling approach. The VA approach used by the toolkit is generalizable to other domains involving social media data, such as sales forecasting and advertisement analysis.

  15. Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion's Pandora's Box

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? A A A | Print | Share Cosmetic Foot Surgery: Fashion’s Pandora’s Box? Foot and ankle ... extreme and imprudent as it may sound, the cosmetic surgery craze is not just for faces anymore— ...

  16. Fuel assembly and fuel channel box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sakuma, Toraki; Hirakawa, Hiromasa; Ishizaki, Hideaki; Nakajima, Junjiro; Aizawa, Yasuhiro.

    1992-01-01

    A fuel channel box has a square cylindrical shape and, in the transversal cross sectional shape, the wall thickness of a corner portion is greater than that of a central portion of the side wall except for an upper portion thereof. The upper portion of the channel box includes a region to be in contact with an upper lattice plate and a region to attach a channel spacer. Then, the wall thickness of these regions is uniform in the transversal cross section and they have the same wall thickness with that of the corner portion which has the increased wall thickness. With such a constitution, the upper portion of the channel box receives a counter force applied from the upper lattice plate upon occurrence of earthquakes and moderate it to reduce local stresses and deformation. Further, a similar region with increased wall thickness is disposed also to the lower portion of the channel box, thereby enabling to suppress the amount of coolants leaked from a portion between the lower portion and a lower tie plate, and improve the mechanical integrity of the channel box. (I.N.)

  17. Getting started with Citrix VDI-in-a-Box

    CERN Document Server

    Brown, Stuart Arthur

    2013-01-01

    A practical and fast-paced guide that gives you all the information you need to simplify and streamline virtual desktops so you get a production-quality solution while instantly lowering your costs and improving security.Getting Started with Citrix VDI-in-a-Box is great for IT professionals who are new to VDI-in-a-Box and who are looking for a good grounding in the product. You may be planning to research VDI-in-a-Box in more detail, or you may be tasked with researching how VDI-in-a-Box could improve the productivity of your organization. No prior knowledge of VDI-in-a-Box is required, just a

  18. Spacer for supporting fuel element boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wild, E.

    1979-01-01

    A spacer plate unit arranged externally on each side and at a predetermined level of a polygonal fuel element box for mutually supporting, with respect to one another, a plurality of the fuel element boxes forming a fuel element bundle, is formed of a first and a second spacer plate part each having the same length and the same width and being constituted of unlike first and second materials, respectively. The first and second spacer plate parts of the several spacer plate units situated at the predetermined level are arranged in an alternating continuous series when viewed in the peripheral direction of the fuel element box, so that any two spacer plate units belonging to face-to-face oriented sides of two adjoining fuel element boxes in the fuel element bundle define interfaces of unlike materials

  19. Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

    2017-08-01

    Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

  20. Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

    1991-12-01

    Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

  1. Sport medicine and the ethics of boxing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclerc, S.; Herrera, C. D.

    1999-01-01

    In the light of medical evidence of the health risks associated with boxing, a watchful agnostic position among sport physicians is no longer justifiable. The normal activity in a boxing match places the athletes at risk of head injury, some of which may be difficult to detect and impossible to repair. This suggests that sport physicians and others expert in the prevention and diagnosis of such injuries should take a public stand against boxing, as other medical associations have. Although there is a need for continuing research into the health risks, doctors can in the interim take steps to increase public awareness of these risks. Sport physicians in particular can make a strong public statement by also ending their professional involvement with boxing. This need not be interpreted as paternalism; doctors are qualified neither to make laws nor to restrict private behaviour. Sport physicians are, however, well equipped to advise those who do make laws and those who choose to engage in boxing. In the end, because this stance against boxing will probably reduce the number of brain injuries in certain athletes, autonomy will be preserved, rather than restricted. 


 PMID:10597855

  2. North American box turtles: A natural history

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, C. Kenneth

    2002-01-01

    Once a familiar backyard visitor in many parts of the United States and Mexico, the box turtle is losing the battle against extinction. In North American Box Turtles, C. Kenneth Dodd, Jr., has written the first book-length natural history of the twelve species and subspecies of this endangered animal. This volume includes comprehensive information on the species’ evolution, behavior, courtship and reproduction, habitat use, diet, population structure, systematics, and disease. Special features include color photos of all species, subspecies, and their habitats; a simple identification guide to both living and fossil species; and a summary of information on fossil Terrapene and Native uses of box turtles. End-of-chapter sections highlight future research directions, including the need for long-term monitoring and observation of box turtles within their natural habitat and conservation applications. A glossary and a bibliography of literature on box turtles accompany the text.

  3. Forecasts: uncertain, inaccurate and biased?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nicolaisen, Morten Skou; Ambrasaite, Inga; Salling, Kim Bang

    2012-01-01

    Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts of cons....... It is recommended that more attention is given to monitoring completed projects so future forecasts can benefit from better data availability through systematic ex-post evaluations, and an example of how to utilize such data in practice is presented.......Cost Benefit Analysis (CBA) is the dominating methodology for appraisal of transport infrastructure projects across the globe. In order to adequately assess the costs and benefits of such projects two types of forecasts are crucial to the validity of the appraisal. First are the forecasts...... of construction costs, which account for the majority of total project costs. Second are the forecasts of travel time savings, which account for the majority of total project benefits. The latter of these is, inter alia, determined by forecasts of travel demand, which we shall use as a proxy for the forecasting...

  4. A new set of ESTs from chickpea (Cicer arietinum L. embryo reveals two novel F-box genes, CarF-box_PP2 and CarF-box_LysM, with potential roles in seed development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shefali Gupta

    Full Text Available Considering the economic importance of chickpea (C. arietinum L. seeds, it is important to understand the mechanisms underlying seed development for which a cDNA library was constructed from 6 day old chickpea embryos. A total of 8,186 ESTs were obtained from which 4,048 high quality ESTs were assembled into 1,480 unigenes that majorly encoded genes involved in various metabolic and regulatory pathways. Of these, 95 ESTs were found to be involved in ubiquitination related protein degradation pathways and 12 ESTs coded specifically for putative F-box proteins. Differential transcript accumulation of these putative F-box genes was observed in chickpea tissues as evidenced by quantitative real-time PCR. Further, to explore the role of F-box proteins in chickpea seed development, two F-box genes were selected for molecular characterization. These were named as CarF-box_PP2 and CarF-box_LysM depending on their C-terminal domains, PP2 and LysM, respectively. Their highly conserved structures led us to predict their target substrates. Subcellular localization experiment revealed that CarF-box_PP2 was localized in the cytoplasm and CarF-box_LysM was localized in the nucleus. We demonstrated their physical interactions with SKP1 protein, which validated that they function as F-box proteins in the formation of SCF complexes. Sequence analysis of their promoter regions revealed certain seed specific cis-acting elements that may be regulating their preferential transcript accumulation in the seed. Overall, the study helped in expanding the EST database of chickpea, which was further used to identify two novel F-box genes having a potential role in seed development.

  5. A new set of ESTs from chickpea (Cicer arietinum L.) embryo reveals two novel F-box genes, CarF-box_PP2 and CarF-box_LysM, with potential roles in seed development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Shefali; Garg, Vanika; Bhatia, Sabhyata

    2015-01-01

    Considering the economic importance of chickpea (C. arietinum L.) seeds, it is important to understand the mechanisms underlying seed development for which a cDNA library was constructed from 6 day old chickpea embryos. A total of 8,186 ESTs were obtained from which 4,048 high quality ESTs were assembled into 1,480 unigenes that majorly encoded genes involved in various metabolic and regulatory pathways. Of these, 95 ESTs were found to be involved in ubiquitination related protein degradation pathways and 12 ESTs coded specifically for putative F-box proteins. Differential transcript accumulation of these putative F-box genes was observed in chickpea tissues as evidenced by quantitative real-time PCR. Further, to explore the role of F-box proteins in chickpea seed development, two F-box genes were selected for molecular characterization. These were named as CarF-box_PP2 and CarF-box_LysM depending on their C-terminal domains, PP2 and LysM, respectively. Their highly conserved structures led us to predict their target substrates. Subcellular localization experiment revealed that CarF-box_PP2 was localized in the cytoplasm and CarF-box_LysM was localized in the nucleus. We demonstrated their physical interactions with SKP1 protein, which validated that they function as F-box proteins in the formation of SCF complexes. Sequence analysis of their promoter regions revealed certain seed specific cis-acting elements that may be regulating their preferential transcript accumulation in the seed. Overall, the study helped in expanding the EST database of chickpea, which was further used to identify two novel F-box genes having a potential role in seed development.

  6. Box-Particle Cardinality Balanced Multi-Target Multi-Bernoulli Filter

    OpenAIRE

    L. Song; X. Zhao

    2014-01-01

    As a generalized particle filtering, the box-particle filter (Box-PF) has a potential to process the measurements affected by bounded error of unknown distributions and biases. Inspired by the Box-PF, a novel implementation for multi-target tracking, called box-particle cardinality balanced multi-target multi-Bernoulli (Box-CBMeMBer) filter is presented in this paper. More important, to eliminate the negative effect of clutters in the estimation of the numbers of targets, an improved generali...

  7. 49 CFR 230.101 - Steam locomotive driving journal boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 4 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. 230.101... Locomotives and Tenders Running Gear § 230.101 Steam locomotive driving journal boxes. (a) Driving journal boxes. Driving journal boxes shall be maintained in a safe and suitable condition for service. Not more...

  8. Seasonal Drought Forecasting for Latin America Using the ECMWF S4 Forecast System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hugo Carrão

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Meaningful seasonal prediction of drought conditions is key information for end-users and water managers, particularly in Latin America where crop and livestock production are key for many regional economies. However, there are still not many studies of the feasibility of such a forecasts at continental level in the region. In this study, precipitation predictions from the European Centre for Medium Range Weather (ECMWF seasonal forecast system S4 are combined with observed precipitation data to generate forecasts of the standardized precipitation index (SPI for Latin America, and their skill is evaluated over the hindcast period 1981–2010. The value-added utility in using the ensemble S4 forecast to predict the SPI is identified by comparing the skill of its forecasts with a baseline skill based solely on their climatological characteristics. As expected, skill of the S4-generated SPI forecasts depends on the season, location, and the specific aggregation period considered (the 3- and 6-month SPI were evaluated. Added skill from the S4 for lead times equaling the SPI accumulation periods is primarily present in regions with high intra-annual precipitation variability, and is found mostly for the months at the end of the dry seasons for 3-month SPI, and half-yearly periods for 6-month SPI. The ECMWF forecast system behaves better than the climatology for clustered grid points in the North of South America, the Northeast of Argentina, Uruguay, southern Brazil and Mexico. The skillful regions are similar for the SPI3 and -6, but become reduced in extent for the severest SPI categories. Forecasting different magnitudes of meteorological drought intensity on a seasonal time scale still remains a challenge. However, the ECMWF S4 forecasting system does capture the occurrence of drought events for the aforementioned regions and seasons reasonably well. In the near term, the largest advances in the prediction of meteorological drought for Latin

  9. More intense experiences, less intense forecasts: why people overweight probability specifications in affective forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buechel, Eva C; Zhang, Jiao; Morewedge, Carey K; Vosgerau, Joachim

    2014-01-01

    We propose that affective forecasters overestimate the extent to which experienced hedonic responses to an outcome are influenced by the probability of its occurrence. The experience of an outcome (e.g., winning a gamble) is typically more affectively intense than the simulation of that outcome (e.g., imagining winning a gamble) upon which the affective forecast for it is based. We suggest that, as a result, experiencers allocate a larger share of their attention toward the outcome (e.g., winning the gamble) and less to its probability specifications than do affective forecasters. Consequently, hedonic responses to an outcome are less sensitive to its probability specifications than are affective forecasts for that outcome. The results of 6 experiments provide support for our theory. Affective forecasters overestimated how sensitive experiencers would be to the probability of positive and negative outcomes (Experiments 1 and 2). Consistent with our attentional account, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications disappeared when the attention of forecasters was diverted from probability specifications (Experiment 3) or when the attention of experiencers was drawn toward probability specifications (Experiment 4). Finally, differences in sensitivity to probability specifications between forecasters and experiencers were diminished when the forecasted outcome was more affectively intense (Experiments 5 and 6).

  10. Load forecasting for supermarket refrigeration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bacher, Peder; Madsen, Henrik; Aalborg Nielsen, Henrik

    This report presents a study of models for forecasting the load for supermarket refrigeration. The data used for building the forecasting models consists of load measurements, local climate measurements and weather forecasts. The load measurements are from a supermarket located in a village...... in Denmark. The load for refrigeration is the sum of all cabinets in the supermarket, both low and medium temperature cabinets, and spans a period of one year. As input to the forecasting models the ambient temperature observed near the supermarket together with weather forecasts are used. Every hour...

  11. Grey Box Modelling of Hydrological Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thordarson, Fannar Ørn

    of two papers where the stochastic differential equation based model is used for sewer runoff from a drainage system. A simple model is used to describe a complex rainfall-runoff process in a catchment, but the stochastic part of the system is formulated to include the increasing uncertainty when...... rainwater flows through the system, as well as describe the lower limit of the uncertainty when the flow approaches zero. The first paper demonstrates in detail the grey box model and all related transformations required to obtain a feasible model for the sewer runoff. In the last paper this model is used......The main topic of the thesis is grey box modelling of hydrologic systems, as well as formulation and assessment of their embedded uncertainties. Grey box model is a combination of a white box model, a physically-based model that is traditionally formulated using deterministic ordinary differential...

  12. Black-Box Search by Unbiased Variation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehre, Per Kristian; Witt, Carsten

    2012-01-01

    The complexity theory for black-box algorithms, introduced by Droste, Jansen, and Wegener (Theory Comput. Syst. 39:525–544, 2006), describes common limits on the efficiency of a broad class of randomised search heuristics. There is an obvious trade-off between the generality of the black-box model...... and the strength of the bounds that can be proven in such a model. In particular, the original black-box model provides for well-known benchmark problems relatively small lower bounds, which seem unrealistic in certain cases and are typically not met by popular search heuristics.In this paper, we introduce a more...... restricted black-box model for optimisation of pseudo-Boolean functions which we claim captures the working principles of many randomised search heuristics including simulated annealing, evolutionary algorithms, randomised local search, and others. The key concept worked out is an unbiased variation operator...

  13. Forecast Combination under Heavy-Tailed Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gang Cheng

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Forecast combination has been proven to be a very important technique to obtain accurate predictions for various applications in economics, finance, marketing and many other areas. In many applications, forecast errors exhibit heavy-tailed behaviors for various reasons. Unfortunately, to our knowledge, little has been done to obtain reliable forecast combinations for such situations. The familiar forecast combination methods, such as simple average, least squares regression or those based on the variance-covariance of the forecasts, may perform very poorly due to the fact that outliers tend to occur, and they make these methods have unstable weights, leading to un-robust forecasts. To address this problem, in this paper, we propose two nonparametric forecast combination methods. One is specially proposed for the situations in which the forecast errors are strongly believed to have heavy tails that can be modeled by a scaled Student’s t-distribution; the other is designed for relatively more general situations when there is a lack of strong or consistent evidence on the tail behaviors of the forecast errors due to a shortage of data and/or an evolving data-generating process. Adaptive risk bounds of both methods are developed. They show that the resulting combined forecasts yield near optimal mean forecast errors relative to the candidate forecasts. Simulations and a real example demonstrate their superior performance in that they indeed tend to have significantly smaller prediction errors than the previous combination methods in the presence of forecast outliers.

  14. Fuel element box inspection device

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ortmayer, R.M.; Pick, W.

    1985-01-01

    The invention concerns a device for inspecting the outer geometry of a long fuel element box by measuring the surface contours over its longitudinal crossection and along its length by sensors. These are kept in a sledge which can be moved along the fuel element guide in a slot guide. The measurement signals reach an evaluation device outside the longitudinal box. (orig./HP) [de

  15. Neurochemical aftermath of amateur boxing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zetterberg, Henrik; Hietala, M Albert; Jonsson, Michael; Andreasen, Niels; Styrud, Ewa; Karlsson, Ingvar; Edman, Ake; Popa, Cornel; Rasulzada, Abdullah; Wahlund, Lars-Olof; Mehta, Pankaj D; Rosengren, Lars; Blennow, Kaj; Wallin, Anders

    2006-09-01

    Little solid information is available on the possible risks for neuronal injury in amateur boxing. To determine whether amateur boxing and severity of hits are associated with elevated levels of biochemical markers for neuronal injury in cerebrospinal fluid. Longitudinal study. Referral center specializing in evaluation of neurodegenerative disorders. Fourteen amateur boxers (11 men and 3 women) and 10 healthy male nonathletic control subjects. The boxers underwent lumbar puncture 7 to 10 days and 3 months after a bout. The control subjects underwent LP once. Neurofilament light protein, total tau, glial fibrillary acidic protein, phosphorylated tau, and beta-amyloid protein 1-40 (Abeta([1-40])) and 1-42 (Abeta([1-42])) concentrations in cerebrospinal fluid were measured. Increased levels after a bout compared with after 3 months of rest from boxing were found for 2 markers for neuronal and axonal injury, neurofilament light protein (mean +/- SD, 845 +/- 1140 ng/L vs 208 +/- 108 ng/L; P = .008) and total tau (mean +/- SD, 449 +/- 176 ng/L vs 306 +/- 78 ng/L; P = .006), and for the astroglial injury marker glial fibrillary acidic protein (mean +/- SD, 541 +/- 199 ng/L vs 405 +/- 138 ng/L; P = .003). The increase was significantly higher among boxers who had received many hits (>15) or high-impact hits to the head compared with boxers who reported few hits. In the boxers, concentrations of neurofilament light protein and glial fibrillary acidic protein, but not total tau, were significantly elevated after a bout compared with the nonathletic control subjects. With the exception of neurofilament light protein, there were no significant differences between boxers after 3 months of rest from boxing and the nonathletic control subjects. Amateur boxing is associated with acute neuronal and astroglial injury. If verified in longitudinal studies with extensive follow-up regarding the clinical outcome, analyses of cerebrospinal fluid may provide a scientific basis for

  16. World Area Forecast System (WAFS)

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The World Area Forecast System (WAFS) is a worldwide system by which world area forecast centers provide aeronautical meteorological en-route forecasts in uniform...

  17. 30 CFR 18.49 - Connection boxes on machines.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 30 Mineral Resources 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Connection boxes on machines. 18.49 Section 18..., AND APPROVAL OF MINING PRODUCTS ELECTRIC MOTOR-DRIVEN MINE EQUIPMENT AND ACCESSORIES Construction and Design Requirements § 18.49 Connection boxes on machines. Connection boxes used to facilitate replacement...

  18. 49 CFR 178.513 - Standards for boxes of natural wood.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... 49 Transportation 2 2010-10-01 2010-10-01 false Standards for boxes of natural wood. 178.513... natural wood. (a) The following are the identification codes for boxes of natural wood: (1) 4C1 for an ordinary box; and (2) 4C2 for a box with sift-proof walls. (b) Construction requirements for boxes of...

  19. Structural testing of the technology integration box beam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffin, C. F.

    1992-01-01

    A full-scale section of a transport aircraft wing box was designed, analyzed, fabricated, and tested. The wing box section, which was called the technology integration box beam, contained blade stiffened covers and T-stiffened channel spars constructed using graphite/epoxy materials. Covers, spars, and the aluminum ribs were assembled using mechanical fasteners. The box beam was statically tested for several loading conditions to verify the stiffness and strength characteristics of the composite wing design. Failure of the box beam occurred at 125 percent of design limit load during the combined upbending and torsion ultimate design load test. It appears that the failure initiated at a stiffener runout location in the upper cover which resulted in rupture of the upper cover and portions of both spars.

  20. Sub-Seasonal Climate Forecast Rodeo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Webb, R. S.; Nowak, K.; Cifelli, R.; Brekke, L. D.

    2017-12-01

    The Bureau of Reclamation, as the largest water wholesaler and the second largest producer of hydropower in the United States, benefits from skillful forecasts of future water availability. Researchers, water managers from local, regional, and federal agencies, and groups such as the Western States Water Council agree that improved precipitation and temperature forecast information at the sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) timescale is an area with significant potential benefit to water management. In response, and recognizing NOAA's leadership in forecasting, Reclamation has partnered with NOAA to develop and implement a real-time S2S forecasting competition. For a year, solvers are submitting forecasts of temperature and precipitation for weeks 3&4 and 5&6 every two weeks on a 1x1 degree grid for the 17 western state domain where Reclamation operates. The competition began on April 18, 2017 and the final real-time forecast is due April 3, 2018. Forecasts are evaluated once observational data become available using spatial anomaly correlation. Scores are posted on a competition leaderboard hosted by the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS). The leaderboard can be accessed at: https://www.drought.gov/drought/sub-seasonal-climate-forecast-rodeo. To be eligible for cash prizes - which total $800,000 - solvers must outperform two benchmark forecasts during the real-time competition as well as in a required 11-year hind-cast. To receive a prize, competitors must grant a non-exclusive license to practice their forecast technique and make it available as open source software. At approximately one quarter complete, there are teams outperforming the benchmarks in three of the four competition categories. With prestige and monetary incentives on the line, it is hoped that the competition will spur innovation of improved S2S forecasts through novel approaches, enhancements to established models, or otherwise. Additionally, the competition aims to raise

  1. Forecasting global atmospheric CO2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Agusti-Panareda, A.; Massart, S.; Boussetta, S.; Balsamo, G.; Beljaars, A.; Engelen, R.; Jones, L.; Peuch, V.H.; Chevallier, F.; Ciais, P.; Paris, J.D.; Sherlock, V.

    2014-01-01

    A new global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) real-time forecast is now available as part of the preoperational Monitoring of Atmospheric Composition and Climate - Interim Implementation (MACC-II) service using the infrastructure of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). One of the strengths of the CO 2 forecasting system is that the land surface, including vegetation CO 2 fluxes, is modelled online within the IFS. Other CO 2 fluxes are prescribed from inventories and from off-line statistical and physical models. The CO 2 forecast also benefits from the transport modelling from a state-of-the-art numerical weather prediction (NWP) system initialized daily with a wealth of meteorological observations. This paper describes the capability of the forecast in modelling the variability of CO 2 on different temporal and spatial scales compared to observations. The modulation of the amplitude of the CO 2 diurnal cycle by near-surface winds and boundary layer height is generally well represented in the forecast. The CO 2 forecast also has high skill in simulating day-to-day synoptic variability. In the atmospheric boundary layer, this skill is significantly enhanced by modelling the day-to-day variability of the CO 2 fluxes from vegetation compared to using equivalent monthly mean fluxes with a diurnal cycle. However, biases in the modelled CO 2 fluxes also lead to accumulating errors in the CO 2 forecast. These biases vary with season with an underestimation of the amplitude of the seasonal cycle both for the CO 2 fluxes compared to total optimized fluxes and the atmospheric CO 2 compared to observations. The largest biases in the atmospheric CO 2 forecast are found in spring, corresponding to the onset of the growing season in the Northern Hemisphere. In the future, the forecast will be re-initialized regularly with atmospheric CO 2 analyses based on the assimilation of CO 2 products retrieved from satellite

  2. Box Plots in the Australian Curriculum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Jane M.

    2012-01-01

    This article compares the definition of "box plot" as used in the "Australian Curriculum: Mathematics" with other definitions used in the education community; describes the difficulties students experience when dealing with box plots; and discusses the elaboration that is necessary to enable teachers to develop the knowledge…

  3. Construction and properties of Box-Behnken designs

    OpenAIRE

    Jo, Jinnam

    1992-01-01

    Box-Behnken designs are used to estimate parameters in a second-order response surface model (Box and Behnken, 1960). These designs are formed by combining ideas from incomplete block designs (BIBD or PBIBD) and factorial experiments, specifically 2k full or 2k-1 fractional factorials. In this dissertation, a more general mathematical formulation of the Box-Behnken method is provided, a general expression for the coefficient matrix in the least squares analysis for estimatin...

  4. USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS (ANNs FOR SEDIMENT LOAD FORECASTING OF TALKHEROOD RIVER MOUTH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Nourani

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Without a doubt the carried sediment load by a river is the most important factor in creating and formation of the related Delta in the river mouth. Therefore, accurate forecasting of the river sediment load can play a significant role for study on the river Delta. However considering the complexity and non-linearity of the phenomenon, the classic experimental or physical-based approaches usually could not handle the problem so well. In this paper, Artificial Neural Network (ANN as a non-linear black box interpolator tool is used for modeling suspended sediment load which discharges to the Talkherood river mouth, located in northern west Iran. For this purpose, observed time series of water discharge at current and previous time steps are used as the model input neurons and the model output neuron will be the forecasted sediment load at the current time step. In this way, various schemes of the ANN approach are examined in order to achieve the best network as well as the best architecture of the model. The obtained results are also compared with the results of two other classic methods (i.e., linear regression and rating curve methods in order to approve the efficiency and ability of the proposed method.

  5. ArduiPod Box: a low-cost and open-source Skinner box using an iPod Touch and an Arduino microcontroller.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pineño, Oskar

    2014-03-01

    This article introduces the ArduiPod Box, an open-source device built using two main components (i.e., an iPod Touch and an Arduino microcontroller), developed as a low-cost alternative to the standard operant conditioning chamber, or "Skinner box." Because of its affordability, the ArduiPod Box provides an opportunity for educational institutions with small budgets seeking to set up animal laboratories for research and instructional purposes. A pilot experiment is also presented, which shows that the ArduiPod Box, in spite of its extraordinary simplicity, can be effectively used to study animal learning and behavior.

  6. Evaluation of Probabilistic Disease Forecasts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, Gareth; Burnett, Fiona J

    2017-10-01

    The statistical evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts often involves calculation of metrics defined conditionally on disease status, such as sensitivity and specificity. However, for the purpose of disease management decision making, metrics defined conditionally on the result of the forecast-predictive values-are also important, although less frequently reported. In this context, the application of scoring rules in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts is discussed. An index of separation with application in the evaluation of probabilistic disease forecasts, described in the clinical literature, is also considered and its relation to scoring rules illustrated. Scoring rules provide a principled basis for the evaluation of probabilistic forecasts used in plant disease management. In particular, the decomposition of scoring rules into interpretable components is an advantageous feature of their application in the evaluation of disease forecasts.

  7. Plutonium glove boxes - metrology and operational states

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thyer, A.M.

    2001-01-01

    The main objective was to undertake a literature review in support of NII's ongoing work in improving safety in the nuclear industry to help define suitable standards of cleanliness for plutonium glove boxes. This is to cover the following areas: existing or proposed national/international standards relating to plutonium glove box cleanliness management; practicable metrology options for assessing the plutonium content of glove boxes; any available dose information relating to the operation of modern and 'old design'; current contamination levels of specific significance (i.e. any accepted level in decommissioning/waste terms, typical criticality limits (if available), any box plutonium loadings that are documented with corresponding operator doses etc.); and, techniques for the decontamination of plutonium glove boxes and their relative effectiveness. This should then form the basis of any further development work undertaken by the UK nuclear industry. Main recommendations are as follows: 1) No information could be found in open literature on acceptable levels of contamination in boxes and action levels for cleanup. If these are not available in closed publications the 2) Where possible, the decontamination methods identified should be tested and dose information recorded against each method to allow informed decisions on which is the optimum technique for a particular form of contamination. 3) Consideration should be given to utilisation of metrology options which have the lowest potential for exposure of operators. Preferred options, may be detection from the outside of boxes using hand-held or permanently located radiation detectors, or semi-intrusive methods such as air-ionisation readings which would require one-off installation of detectors in ductwork

  8. Designing key-dependent chaotic S-box with larger key space

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin Ruming; Yuan Jian; Wang Jian; Shan Xiuming; Wang Xiqin

    2009-01-01

    The construction of cryptographically strong substitution boxes (S-boxes) is an important concern in designing secure cryptosystems. The key-dependent S-boxes designed using chaotic maps have received increasing attention in recent years. However, the key space of such S-boxes does not seem to be sufficiently large due to the limited parameter range of discretized chaotic maps. In this paper, we propose a new key-dependent S-box based on the iteration of continuous chaotic maps. We explore the continuous-valued state space of chaotic systems, and devise the discrete mapping between the input and the output of the S-box. A key-dependent S-box is constructed with the logistic map in this paper. We show that its key space could be much larger than the current key-dependent chaotic S-boxes.

  9. Design of strong wooden box coated with fiberglass reinforced resin for shipping and burial of contaminated glove boxes. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1982-01-01

    The project scope of work included the complete decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of the Westinghouse ARD Fuel Laboratories at the Cheswick Site in the shortest possible time. This has been accomplished in the following four phases: (1) preparation of documents and necessary paperwork; packaging and shipping of all special nuclear materials in an acceptable form to a reprocessing agency; (2) decontamination of all facilities, glove boxes and equipment; loading of generated waste into bins, barrels and strong wooden boxes; (3) shipping of al bins, barrels and boxes containing waste to the designated burial site; removal of all utility services from the laboratories; and (4) final survey of remaining facilities and certification for nonrestricted use; preparation of final report. This attachment contains design of strong wooden box coated with fiberglass reinforced resin for shipping and burial of contaminated glove boxes

  10. Light Therapy Boxes for Seasonal Affective Disorder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seasonal affective disorder treatment: Choosing a light therapy box Light therapy boxes can offer an effective treatment for seasonal affective disorder. Features such as light intensity, safety, cost and ...

  11. Forecasting in Planning

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ike, P.; Voogd, Henk; Voogd, Henk; Linden, Gerard

    2004-01-01

    This chapter begins with a discussion of qualitative forecasting by describing a number of methods that depend on judgements made by stakeholders, experts or other interested parties to arrive at forecasts. Two qualitative approaches are illuminated, the Delphi and scenario methods respectively.

  12. Weather Forecasts are for Wimps. Why Water Resource Managers Do Not Use Climate Forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rayner, S. [James Martin Institute of Science and Civilization, Said Business School, University of Oxford, OX1 1HP (United Kingdom); Lach, D. [Oregon State University, Corvallis, OR, 97331-4501 (United States); Ingram, H. [School of Social Ecology, University of California Irvine, Irvine, CA, 92697-7075 (United States)

    2005-04-15

    Short-term climate forecasting offers the promise of improved hydrologic management strategies. However, water resource managers in the United States have proven reluctant to incorporate them in decision making. While managers usually cite poor reliability of the forecasts as the reason for this, they are seldom able to demonstrate knowledge of the actual performance of forecasts or to consistently articulate the level of reliability that they would require. Analysis of three case studies in California, the Pacific Northwest, and metro Washington DC identifies institutional reasons that appear to lie behind managers reluctance to use the forecasts. These include traditional reliance on large built infrastructure, organizational conservatism and complexity, mismatch of temporal and spatial scales of forecasts to management needs, political disincentives to innovation, and regulatory constraints. The paper concludes that wider acceptance of the forecasts will depend on their being incorporated in existing organizational routines and industrial codes and practices, as well as changes in management incentives to innovation. Finer spatial resolution of forecasts and the regional integration of multi-agency functions would also enhance their usability. The title of this article is taken from an advertising slogan for the Oldsmobile Bravura SUV.

  13. Implementation of T-box/T/sup -1/-box based AES design on latest xilinx fpga

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kundi, D.E.; Aziz, A.

    2015-01-01

    This work presents an efficient implementation of the AES (Advance Encryption Standard) based on Tbox/T-1-box design for both the encryption and decryption on FPGA (Field Programmable Gate Array). The proposed architecture not only make efficient use of full capacity of dedicated 32 Kb BRAM (Block RAM) of latest Xilinx FPGAs (Virtex-5, Virtex-6 and 7 Series) but also saves considerable amount of BRAM and logical resources by using multiple accesses from single BRAM in one cycle of system clock as compared to conventional LUT (Look-Up-Table) techniques. The proposed T-box/T-1-box based AES design for both the encryption and decryption fits into just 4 BRAMs on FPGA and results in good efficiency TPS (Throughput per Slice) with less power consumption. (author)

  14. Hydrogen atom within spherical boxes with penetrable walls

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ley-Koo, E.; Rubinstein, S.

    1979-01-01

    We study a model for the hydrogen atom confined within spherical boxes with penetrable walls. The potential consists of the Coulomb potential inside the box and a constant potential outside the box; the Schroedinger equation admits analytical solutions in both regions. The energy eigenvalues and eigenfunctions for the lowest states of the system are determined numerically for boxes of different sizes and penetrabilities. In addition, we also evaluate the hyperfine splitting, nuclear magnetic shielding, polarizability and pressure of the system and investigate the effect of the confinement on these atomic properties

  15. A novel heuristic method for obtaining S-boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Guo

    2008-01-01

    An efficient algorithm named chaotic multi-swapping and simulated annealing (CMSSA) for obtaining cryptographically strong 8 x 8 S-boxes is presented. The method is based on chaotic maps and simulated annealing. In addition, cryptographic properties such as bijectivity, strict avalanche criterion, nonlinearity, output bits independence criterion and equiprobable input/output XOR distribution are analyzed in detail for the S-box produced. The results of numerical analysis show that the box has nearly fulfilled the criteria for a cryptographically strong S-box and can effectively resist several attacks

  16. A convection-allowing ensemble forecast based on the breeding growth mode and associated optimization of precipitation forecast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xiang; He, Hongrang; Chen, Chaohui; Miao, Ziqing; Bai, Shigang

    2017-10-01

    A convection-allowing ensemble forecast experiment on a squall line was conducted based on the breeding growth mode (BGM). Meanwhile, the probability matched mean (PMM) and neighborhood ensemble probability (NEP) methods were used to optimize the associated precipitation forecast. The ensemble forecast predicted the precipitation tendency accurately, which was closer to the observation than in the control forecast. For heavy rainfall, the precipitation center produced by the ensemble forecast was also better. The Fractions Skill Score (FSS) results indicated that the ensemble mean was skillful in light rainfall, while the PMM produced better probability distribution of precipitation for heavy rainfall. Preliminary results demonstrated that convection-allowing ensemble forecast could improve precipitation forecast skill through providing valuable probability forecasts. It is necessary to employ new methods, such as the PMM and NEP, to generate precipitation probability forecasts. Nonetheless, the lack of spread and the overprediction of precipitation by the ensemble members are still problems that need to be solved.

  17. Using a Software Tool in Forecasting: a Case Study of Sales Forecasting Taking into Account Data Uncertainty

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabianová, Jana; Kačmáry, Peter; Molnár, Vieroslav; Michalik, Peter

    2016-10-01

    Forecasting is one of the logistics activities and a sales forecast is the starting point for the elaboration of business plans. Forecast accuracy affects the business outcomes and ultimately may significantly affect the economic stability of the company. The accuracy of the prediction depends on the suitability of the use of forecasting methods, experience, quality of input data, time period and other factors. The input data are usually not deterministic but they are often of random nature. They are affected by uncertainties of the market environment, and many other factors. Taking into account the input data uncertainty, the forecast error can by reduced. This article deals with the use of the software tool for incorporating data uncertainty into forecasting. Proposals are presented of a forecasting approach and simulation of the impact of uncertain input parameters to the target forecasted value by this case study model. The statistical analysis and risk analysis of the forecast results is carried out including sensitivity analysis and variables impact analysis.

  18. Electrical requirements for unshielded glove boxes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1978-02-01

    The specification relates to the general design and installation of electrical services required in unshielded glove boxes in which atmospheres of air, argon or nitrogen etc. may exist either temporarily or permanently. The specification does not apply to electrical services for glove boxes with flammable explosive atmospheres. (author)

  19. Boxing Injuries from an Instructional Program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welch, Michael J.; And Others

    1986-01-01

    This paper describes the safeguards as well as the injury pattern of the boxing program at the US Military Academy at West Point from 1983 to 1985. About 2,100 cadets received boxing instruction during this period with an injury rate of less than four percent. (Author/MT)

  20. The AviaDem forecasting model: illustration of a forecasting case at Amsterdam Schiphol Airport

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Veldhuis, J.; Lieshout, R.

    2010-01-01

    The paper describes an aviation market forecasting model which focuses on market forecasts for airports. Most forecasting models in use today assess aviation trends resulting from macroeconomic trends. The model described in this paper has this feature built in, but the added value of this model is

  1. Forecasting droughts in West Africa: Operational practice and refined seasonal precipitation forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bliefernicht, Jan; Siegmund, Jonatan; Seidel, Jochen; Arnold, Hanna; Waongo, Moussa; Laux, Patrick; Kunstmann, Harald

    2016-04-01

    Precipitation forecasts for the upcoming rainy seasons are one of the most important sources of information for an early warning of droughts and water scarcity in West Africa. The meteorological services in West Africa perform seasonal precipitation forecasts within the framework of PRESAO (the West African climate outlook forum) since the end of the 1990s. Various sources of information and statistical techniques are used by the individual services to provide a harmonized seasonal precipitation forecasts for decision makers in West Africa. In this study, we present a detailed overview of the operational practice in West Africa including a first statistical assessment of the performance of the precipitation forecasts for drought situations for the past 18 years (1998 to 2015). In addition, a long-term hindcasts (1982 to 2009) and a semi-operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 using statistical and/or dynamical downscaling are performed to refine the precipitation forecasts from the Climate Forecast System Version 2 (CFSv2), a global ensemble prediction system. This information is post-processed to provide user-oriented precipitation indices such as the onset of the rainy season for supporting water and land use management for rain-fed agriculture. The evaluation of the individual techniques is performed focusing on water-scarce regions of the Volta basin in Burkina Faso and Ghana. The forecasts of the individual techniques are compared to state-of-the-art global observed precipitation products and a novel precipitation database based on long-term daily rain-gage measurements provided by the national meteorological services. The statistical assessment of the PRESAO forecasts indicates skillful seasonal precipitation forecasts for many locations in the Volta basin, particularly for years with water deficits. The operational experiment for the rainy season 2013 illustrates the high potential of a physically-based downscaling for this region but still shows

  2. Rebuttal of "Polar bear population forecasts: a public-policy forecasting audit"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amstrup, Steven C.; Caswell, Hal; DeWeaver, Eric; Stirling, Ian; Douglas, David C.; Marcot, Bruce G.; Hunter, Christine M.

    2009-01-01

    Observed declines in the Arctic sea ice have resulted in a variety of negative effects on polar bears (Ursus maritimus). Projections for additional future declines in sea ice resulted in a proposal to list polar bears as a threatened species under the United States Endangered Species Act. To provide information for the Department of the Interior's listing-decision process, the US Geological Survey (USGS) produced a series of nine research reports evaluating the present and future status of polar bears throughout their range. In response, Armstrong et al. [Armstrong, J. S., K. C. Green, W. Soon. 2008. Polar bear population forecasts: A public-policy forecasting audit. Interfaces 38(5) 382–405], which we will refer to as AGS, performed an audit of two of these nine reports. AGS claimed that the general circulation models upon which the USGS reports relied were not valid forecasting tools, that USGS researchers were not objective or lacked independence from policy decisions, that they did not utilize all available information in constructing their forecasts, and that they violated numerous principles of forecasting espoused by AGS. AGS (p. 382) concluded that the two USGS reports were "unscientific and inconsequential to decision makers." We evaluate the AGS audit and show how AGS are mistaken or misleading on every claim. We provide evidence that general circulation models are useful in forecasting future climate conditions and that corporate and government leaders are relying on these models to do so. We clarify the strict independence of the USGS from the listing decision. We show that the allegations of failure to follow the principles of forecasting espoused by AGS are either incorrect or are based on misconceptions about the Arctic environment, polar bear biology, or statistical and mathematical methods. We conclude by showing that the AGS principles of forecasting are too ambiguous and subjective to be used as a reliable basis for auditing scientific

  3. Prohibiting Headgear for Safety in Amateur Boxing? Opinion of the Canadian Boxing Community: an Online Poll.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickinson, Philip; Rempel, Philip

    In 2013, the Amateur International Boxing Association (AIBA) introduced a rule banning headgear for male-senior open class boxers during competition. The AIBA has defended the rule change as motivated by safety and supported by internal unpublished studies. As a result, in 2018, the AIBA plans to universally prohibit headgear in competition: for all competitors (male and female), all ages and all levels. Within Canada, this ruling has generated controversy in the boxing community, yet there has been no overall measure of opinion. To address this, we instituted a voluntary, anonymous, online open-access poll to allow members of the boxing community to express their stance on headgear use in competition. In total, 636 responses were received. A total of 71.5 % of Canadian respondents believed headgear should be mandatory at all levels. Only 5.8 % agreed that headgear should be prohibited, as planned for 2018. Estimating results on a representative breakdown of boxing membership in Canada, a similar pattern emerged, whereby 68.2 % concurred with mandatory headgear while only 4.95 % supported its prohibition. Parents of boxers were almost unanimously against banning headgear, stating they would change sports as a result. Similarly, only 1.7 % of women believed headgear should be prohibited. The consensus of the Canadian boxing community largely opposes the rule changes that the AIBA has implemented. The results highlight risks posed to the long-term viability of the sport, if significant grassroots safety concerns are disregarded.

  4. 49 CFR 178.514 - Standards for plywood boxes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... identification code for a plywood box is 4D. (b) Construction requirements for plywood boxes are as follows: (1..., commercially dry and free from defects that would materially lessen the strength of the box. The strength of the material used and the method of construction must be appropriate to the capacity and intended use...

  5. 47 CFR 90.241 - Radio call box operations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-10-01

    ... remains on for a period in excess of three minutes. The automatic cutoff system must be designed so the... Public Safety Pool for highway call box systems subject to the following requirements: (1) Call box... effective radiated power (ERP). (3) The height of a call box antenna may not exceed 6.1 meters (20 feet...

  6. Combining forecast weights: Why and how?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Yip Chee; Kok-Haur, Ng; Hock-Eam, Lim

    2012-09-01

    This paper proposes a procedure called forecast weight averaging which is a specific combination of forecast weights obtained from different methods of constructing forecast weights for the purpose of improving the accuracy of pseudo out of sample forecasting. It is found that under certain specified conditions, forecast weight averaging can lower the mean squared forecast error obtained from model averaging. In addition, we show that in a linear and homoskedastic environment, this superior predictive ability of forecast weight averaging holds true irrespective whether the coefficients are tested by t statistic or z statistic provided the significant level is within the 10% range. By theoretical proofs and simulation study, we have shown that model averaging like, variance model averaging, simple model averaging and standard error model averaging, each produces mean squared forecast error larger than that of forecast weight averaging. Finally, this result also holds true marginally when applied to business and economic empirical data sets, Gross Domestic Product (GDP growth rate), Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Average Lending Rate (ALR) of Malaysia.

  7. Analysing UK real estate market forecast disagreement

    OpenAIRE

    McAllister, Patrick; Newell, G.; Matysiak, George

    2005-01-01

    Given the significance of forecasting in real estate investment decisions, this paper investigates forecast uncertainty and disagreement in real estate market forecasts. Using the Investment Property Forum (IPF) quarterly survey amongst UK independent real estate forecasters, these real estate forecasts are compared with actual real estate performance to assess a number of real estate forecasting issues in the UK over 1999-2004, including real estate forecast error, bias and consensus. The re...

  8. Potential predictability and forecast skill in ensemble climate forecast: the skill-persistence rule

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jin, Y.; Rong, X.; Liu, Z.

    2017-12-01

    This study investigates the factors that impact the forecast skill for the real world (actual skill) and perfect model (perfect skill) in ensemble climate model forecast with a series of fully coupled general circulation model forecast experiments. It is found that the actual skill of sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast is substantially higher than the perfect skill on a large part of the tropical oceans, especially the tropical Indian Ocean and the central-eastern Pacific Ocean. The higher actual skill is found to be related to the higher observational SST persistence, suggesting a skill-persistence rule: a higher SST persistence in the real world than in the model could overwhelm the model bias to produce a higher forecast skill for the real world than for the perfect model. The relation between forecast skill and persistence is further examined using a first-order autoregressive model (AR1) analytically for theoretical solutions and numerically for analogue experiments. The AR1 model study shows that the skill-persistence rule is strictly valid in the case of infinite ensemble size, but can be distorted by the sampling error and non-AR1 processes.

  9. Direct medical costs of hospitalizations for cardiovascular diseases in Shanghai, China: trends and projections.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Shengnan; Petzold, Max; Cao, Junshan; Zhang, Yue; Wang, Weibing

    2015-05-01

    Few studies in China have focused on direct expenditures for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), making cost trends for CVDs uncertain. Epidemic modeling and forecasting may be essential for health workers and policy makers to reduce the cost burden of CVDs.To develop a time series model using Box-Jenkins methodology for a 15-year forecasting of CVD hospitalization costs in Shanghai.Daily visits and medical expenditures for CVD hospitalizations between January 1, 2008 and December 31, 2012 were analyzed. Data from 2012 were used for further analyses, including yearly total health expenditures and expenditures per visit for each disease, as well as per-visit-per-year medical costs of each service for CVD hospitalizations. Time series analyses were performed to determine the long-time trend of total direct medical expenditures for CVDs and specific expenditures for each disease, which were used to forecast expenditures until December 31, 2030.From 2008 to 2012, there were increased yearly trends for both hospitalizations (from 250,354 to 322,676) and total costs (from US $ 388.52 to 721.58 million per year in 2014 currency) in Shanghai. Cost per CVD hospitalization in 2012 averaged US $ 2236.29, with the highest being for chronic rheumatic heart diseases (US $ 4710.78). Most direct medical costs were spent on medication. By the end of 2030, the average cost per visit per month for all CVDs was estimated to be US $ 4042.68 (95% CI: US $ 3795.04-4290.31) for all CVDs, and the total health expenditure for CVDs would reach over US $1.12 billion (95% CI: US $ 1.05-1.19 billion) without additional government interventions.Total health expenditures for CVDs in Shanghai are estimated to be higher in the future. These results should be a valuable future resource for both researchers on the economic effects of CVDs and for policy makers.

  10. Quantile forecast discrimination ability and value

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ben Bouallègue, Zied; Pinson, Pierre; Friederichs, Petra

    2015-01-01

    While probabilistic forecast verification for categorical forecasts is well established, some of the existing concepts and methods have not found their equivalent for the case of continuous variables. New tools dedicated to the assessment of forecast discrimination ability and forecast value are ...... is illustrated based on synthetic datasets, as well as for the case of global radiation forecasts from the high resolution ensemble COSMO-DE-EPS of the German Weather Service....

  11. Wind and load forecast error model for multiple geographically distributed forecasts

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Makarov, Yuri V.; Reyes-Spindola, Jorge F.; Samaan, Nader; Diao, Ruisheng; Hafen, Ryan P. [Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland, WA (United States)

    2010-07-01

    The impact of wind and load forecast errors on power grid operations is frequently evaluated by conducting multi-variant studies, where these errors are simulated repeatedly as random processes based on their known statistical characteristics. To simulate these errors correctly, we need to reflect their distributions (which do not necessarily follow a known distribution law), standard deviations. auto- and cross-correlations. For instance, load and wind forecast errors can be closely correlated in different zones of the system. This paper introduces a new methodology for generating multiple cross-correlated random processes to produce forecast error time-domain curves based on a transition probability matrix computed from an empirical error distribution function. The matrix will be used to generate new error time series with statistical features similar to observed errors. We present the derivation of the method and some experimental results obtained by generating new error forecasts together with their statistics. (orig.)

  12. A novel F-box protein CaF-box is involved in responses to plant hormones and abiotic stress in pepper (Capsicum annuum L.).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Rugang; Guo, Weili; Yin, Yanxu; Gong, Zhen-Hui

    2014-02-10

    The F-box protein family is characterized by an F-box motif that has been shown to play an important role in regulating various developmental processes and stress responses. In this study, a novel F-box-containing gene was isolated from leaves of pepper cultivar P70 (Capsicum annuum L.) and designated CaF-box. The full-length cDNA is 2088 bp and contains an open reading frame of 1914 bp encoding a putative polypeptide of 638 amino acids with a mass of 67.8 kDa. CaF-box was expressed predominantly in stems and seeds, and the transcript was markedly upregulated in response to cold stress, abscisic acid (ABA) and salicylic acid (SA) treatment, and downregulated under osmotic and heavy metal stress. CaF-box expression was dramatically affected by salt stress, and was rapidly increased for the first hour, then sharply decreased thereafter. In order to further assess the role of CaF-box in the defense response to abiotic stress, a loss-of-function experiment in pepper plants was performed using a virus-induced gene silencing (VIGS) technique. Measurement of thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) and electrolyte leakage revealed stronger lipid peroxidation and cell death in the CaF-box-silenced plants than in control plants, suggesting CaF-box plays an important role in regulating the defense response to abiotic stress resistance in pepper plants.

  13. Interspecific and intraspecific spatial separation by birds breeding in nest boxes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denis C. Deeming

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Nest boxes can be seen as a conservation tool for improving low-grade nesting habitat but it is unclear how sympatric species using boxes establish a spatial distribution relative to conspecifics and heterospecifics. This study determined the distances between nest boxes occupied by Blue Tits (Cyanistes caeruleus and Great Tits (Parus major in two British woodlands to ascertain whether spatial distribution was affected by species and, if it was, whether there were reproductive consequences of this breeding distribution. Occupancy of nest boxes at two woodland sites were recorded on an annual basis between 2010 and 2014, inclusive. Distances between nest boxes, and reproductive activity, were recorded. Even if nest boxes showed a clumped distribution in the woodlands, the occupancy of the boxes was random. Not all boxes were used and the minimum distance between occupied boxes was at least twice the distance between boxes in general. Blue Tits tended to have greater distances between boxes containing conspecifics but distances between boxes containing heterospecifics were generally of comparable lengths. Reproductive output was only affected in relation to clutch size for Blue Tits nesting at one site. Nest boxes that aim to improve habitats that lack suitable nesting sites should be placed to reflect actual dispersal distances of the focal bird species.

  14. 25 years of time series forecasting

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Gooijer, J.G.; Hyndman, R.J.

    2006-01-01

    We review the past 25 years of research into time series forecasting. In this silver jubilee issue, we naturally highlight results published in journals managed by the International Institute of Forecasters (Journal of Forecasting 1982-1985 and International Journal of Forecasting 1985-2005). During

  15. Two particle states in an asymmetric box

    OpenAIRE

    Li, Xin; Liu, Chuan

    2004-01-01

    The exact two-particle energy eigenstates in an asymmetric rectangular box with periodic boundary conditions in all three directions are studied. Their relation with the elastic scattering phases of the two particles in the continuum are obtained. These results can be viewed as a generalization of the corresponding formulae in a cubic box obtained by L\\"uscher before. In particular, the s-wave scattering length is related to the energy shift in the finite box. Possible applications of these f...

  16. Two particle states in an asymmetric box

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Xin; Liu Chuan

    2004-01-01

    The exact two-particle energy eigenstates in an asymmetric rectangular box with periodic boundary conditions in all three directions are studied. Their relation with the elastic scattering phases of the two particles in the continuum are obtained. These results can be viewed as a generalization of the corresponding formulae in a cubic box obtained by Luescher before. In particular, the s-wave scattering length is related to the energy shift in the finite box. Possible applications of these formulae are also discussed

  17. Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shafie-khah, M.; Moghaddam, M. Parsa; Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K.

    2011-01-01

    Research highlights: → A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. → The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. → PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. → One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. → The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

  18. Price forecasting of day-ahead electricity markets using a hybrid forecast method

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shafie-khah, M., E-mail: miadreza@gmail.co [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Moghaddam, M. Parsa, E-mail: parsa@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Sheikh-El-Eslami, M.K., E-mail: aleslam@modares.ac.i [Tarbiat Modares University, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

    2011-05-15

    Research highlights: {yields} A hybrid method is proposed to forecast the day-ahead prices in electricity market. {yields} The method combines Wavelet-ARIMA and RBFN network models. {yields} PSO method is applied to obtain optimum RBFN structure for avoiding over fitting. {yields} One of the merits of the proposed method is lower need to the input data. {yields} The proposed method has more accurate behavior in compare with previous methods. -- Abstract: Energy price forecasting in a competitive electricity market is crucial for the market participants in planning their operations and managing their risk, and it is also the key information in the economic optimization of the electric power industry. However, price series usually have a complex behavior due to their nonlinearity, nonstationarity, and time variancy. In this paper, a novel hybrid method to forecast day-ahead electricity price is proposed. This hybrid method is based on wavelet transform, Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models and Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFN). The wavelet transform provides a set of better-behaved constitutive series than price series for prediction. ARIMA model is used to generate a linear forecast, and then RBFN is developed as a tool for nonlinear pattern recognition to correct the estimation error in wavelet-ARIMA forecast. Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) is used to optimize the network structure which makes the RBFN be adapted to the specified training set, reducing computation complexity and avoiding overfitting. The proposed method is examined on the electricity market of mainland Spain and the results are compared with some of the most recent price forecast methods. The results show that the proposed hybrid method could provide a considerable improvement for the forecasting accuracy.

  19. New approaches to glove box design at Hanford

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lini, D.C.; Fisher, F.D.; Walters, F.F.

    1986-01-01

    Glove boxes provide the primary environmental containment system for plutonium processing operations at US Dept. of Energy (DOE)-owned facilities such as Rockwell Hanford. As noted in previous presentations, glove box designs and operations have evolved through stages that are a result of advances in processing techniques, new regulatory requirements, and cost escalation. These factors will continue to influence the current glove box designs and operations. The purpose of this presentation is to discuss required upgrades and changes that are being incorporated into glove boxes being installed at Rockwell Hanford and other DOE installations or are being evaluated for future upgrades

  20. Forecast communication through the newspaper Part 1: Framing the forecaster

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Andrew J. L.

    2015-04-01

    This review is split into two parts both of which address issues of forecast communication of an environmental disaster through the newspaper during a period of crisis. The first part explores the process by which information passes from the scientist or forecaster, through the media filter, to the public. As part of this filter preference, omission, selection of data, source, quote and story, as well as placement of the same information within an individual piece or within the newspaper itself, can serve to distort the message. The result is the introduction of bias and slant—that is, the message becomes distorted so as to favor one side of the argument against another as it passes through the filter. Bias can be used to support spin or agenda setting, so that a particular emphasis becomes placed on the story which exerts an influence on the reader's judgment. The net result of the filter components is either a negative (contrary) or positive (supportive) frame. Tabloidization of the news has also resulted in the use of strong, evocative, exaggerated words, headlines and images to support a frame. I illustrate these various elements of the media filter using coverage of the air space closure due to the April 2010 eruption of Eyjafjallajökull (Iceland). Using the British press coverage of this event it is not difficult to find examples of all media filter elements, application of which resulted in bias against the forecast and forecaster. These actors then became named and blamed. Within this logic, it becomes only too easy for forecasters and scientists to be framed in a negative way through blame culture. The result is that forecast is framed in such a way so as to cause the forecaster to be blamed for all losses associated with the loss-causing event. Within the social amplification of risk framework (SARF), this can amplify a negative impression of the risk, the event and the response. However, actions can be taken to avoid such an outcome. These actions