Bayesian Simultaneous Estimation for Means in k Sample Problems

OpenAIRE

Imai, Ryo; Kubokawa, Tatsuya; Ghosh, Malay

2017-01-01

This paper is concerned with the simultaneous estimation of k population means when one suspects that the k means are nearly equal. As an alternative to the preliminary test estimator based on the test statistics for testing hypothesis of equal means, we derive Bayesian and minimax estimators which shrink individual sample means toward a pooled mean estimator given under the hypothesis. Interestingly, it is shown that both the preliminary test estimator and the Bayesian minimax shrinkage esti...

Improved estimation of subject-level functional connectivity using full and partial correlation with empirical Bayes shrinkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Mejia, Amanda F; Nebel, Mary Beth; Barber, Anita D; Choe, Ann S; Pekar, James J; Caffo, Brian S; Lindquist, Martin A

2018-05-15

Reliability of subject-level resting-state functional connectivity (FC) is determined in part by the statistical techniques employed in its estimation. Methods that pool information across subjects to inform estimation of subject-level effects (e.g., Bayesian approaches) have been shown to enhance reliability of subject-level FC. However, fully Bayesian approaches are computationally demanding, while empirical Bayesian approaches typically rely on using repeated measures to estimate the variance components in the model. Here, we avoid the need for repeated measures by proposing a novel measurement error model for FC describing the different sources of variance and error, which we use to perform empirical Bayes shrinkage of subject-level FC towards the group average. In addition, since the traditional intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC) is inappropriate for biased estimates, we propose a new reliability measure denoted the mean squared error intra-class correlation coefficient (ICC MSE ) to properly assess the reliability of the resulting (biased) estimates. We apply the proposed techniques to test-retest resting-state fMRI data on 461 subjects from the Human Connectome Project to estimate connectivity between 100 regions identified through independent components analysis (ICA). We consider both correlation and partial correlation as the measure of FC and assess the benefit of shrinkage for each measure, as well as the effects of scan duration. We find that shrinkage estimates of subject-level FC exhibit substantially greater reliability than traditional estimates across various scan durations, even for the most reliable connections and regardless of connectivity measure. Additionally, we find partial correlation reliability to be highly sensitive to the choice of penalty term, and to be generally worse than that of full correlations except for certain connections and a narrow range of penalty values. This suggests that the penalty needs to be chosen carefully

Denoising of Mechanical Vibration Signals Using Quantum-Inspired Adaptive Wavelet Shrinkage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan-long Chen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The potential application of a quantum-inspired adaptive wavelet shrinkage (QAWS technique to mechanical vibration signals with a focus on noise reduction is studied in this paper. This quantum-inspired shrinkage algorithm combines three elements: an adaptive non-Gaussian statistical model of dual-tree complex wavelet transform (DTCWT coefficients proposed to improve practicability of prior information, the quantum superposition introduced to describe the interscale dependencies of DTCWT coefficients, and the quantum-inspired probability of noise defined to shrink wavelet coefficients in a Bayesian framework. By combining all these elements, this signal processing scheme incorporating the DTCWT with quantum theory can both reduce noise and preserve signal details. A practical vibration signal measured from a power-shift steering transmission is utilized to evaluate the denoising ability of QAWS. Application results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. Moreover, it achieves better performance than hard and soft thresholding.

Radiation Source Mapping with Bayesian Inverse Methods

Science.gov (United States)

Hykes, Joshua Michael

We present a method to map the spectral and spatial distributions of radioactive sources using a small number of detectors. Locating and identifying radioactive materials is important for border monitoring, accounting for special nuclear material in processing facilities, and in clean-up operations. Most methods to analyze these problems make restrictive assumptions about the distribution of the source. In contrast, the source-mapping method presented here allows an arbitrary three-dimensional distribution in space and a flexible group and gamma peak distribution in energy. To apply the method, the system's geometry and materials must be known. A probabilistic Bayesian approach is used to solve the resulting inverse problem (IP) since the system of equations is ill-posed. The probabilistic approach also provides estimates of the confidence in the final source map prediction. A set of adjoint flux, discrete ordinates solutions, obtained in this work by the Denovo code, are required to efficiently compute detector responses from a candidate source distribution. These adjoint fluxes are then used to form the linear model to map the state space to the response space. The test for the method is simultaneously locating a set of 137Cs and 60Co gamma sources in an empty room. This test problem is solved using synthetic measurements generated by a Monte Carlo (MCNP) model and using experimental measurements that we collected for this purpose. With the synthetic data, the predicted source distributions identified the locations of the sources to within tens of centimeters, in a room with an approximately four-by-four meter floor plan. Most of the predicted source intensities were within a factor of ten of their true value. The chi-square value of the predicted source was within a factor of five from the expected value based on the number of measurements employed. With a favorable uniform initial guess, the predicted source map was nearly identical to the true distribution

Influence of Shrinkage-Reducing Admixtures on the Development of Plastic Shrinkage Cracks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lura, Pietro; Pease, Bradley Justin; Mazzotta, Guy

2007-01-01

The term plastic shrinkage cracking is generally used to describe cracks that form between the time when concrete is placed and the time when concrete sets. This paper discusses how the evaporation of water causes concave menisci to form on the surface of fresh concrete. These menisci cause both...... settlement of the concrete and tensile stress development in the surface of the concrete, which increase the potential for development of plastic shrinkage cracks. Specifically, this paper studies the development of plastic shrinkage cracks in mortars containing a commercially available shrinkage-reducing...... admixture (SRA). Mortars containing SRA show fewer and narrower plastic shrinkage cracks than plain mortars when exposed to the same environmental conditions. It is proposed that the lower surface tension of the pore fluid in the mortars containing SRA results in less evaporation, reduced settlement...

Study on effects of solar radiation and rain on shrinkage, shrinkage cracking and creep of concrete

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Asamoto, Shingo; Ohtsuka, Ayumu; Kuwahara, Yuta; Miura, Chikako

2011-01-01

In this paper, the effects of actual environmental actions on shrinkage, creep and shrinkage cracking of concrete are studied comprehensively. Prismatic specimens of plain concrete were exposed to three sets of artificial outdoor conditions with or without solar radiation and rain to examine the shrinkage. For the purpose of studying shrinkage cracking behavior, prismatic concrete specimens with reinforcing steel were also subjected to the above conditions at the same time. The shrinkage behavior is described focusing on the effects of solar radiation and rain based on the moisture loss. The significant environment actions to induce shrinkage cracks are investigated from viewpoints of the amount of the shrinkage and the tensile strength. Finally, specific compressive creep behavior according to solar radiation and rainfall is discussed. It is found that rain can greatly inhibit the progresses of concrete shrinkage and creep while solar radiation is likely to promote shrinkage cracking and creep.

Bayesian analysis of log Gaussian Cox processes for disease mapping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Benes, Viktor; Bodlák, Karel; Møller, Jesper

We consider a data set of locations where people in Central Bohemia have been infected by tick-borne encephalitis, and where population census data and covariates concerning vegetation and altitude are available. The aims are to estimate the risk map of the disease and to study the dependence...... of the risk on the covariates. Instead of using the common area level approaches we consider a Bayesian analysis for a log Gaussian Cox point process with covariates. Posterior characteristics for a discretized version of the log Gaussian Cox process are computed using markov chain Monte Carlo methods...

Bayesian Group Bridge for Bi-level Variable Selection.

Science.gov (United States)

Mallick, Himel; Yi, Nengjun

2017-06-01

A Bayesian bi-level variable selection method (BAGB: Bayesian Analysis of Group Bridge) is developed for regularized regression and classification. This new development is motivated by grouped data, where generic variables can be divided into multiple groups, with variables in the same group being mechanistically related or statistically correlated. As an alternative to frequentist group variable selection methods, BAGB incorporates structural information among predictors through a group-wise shrinkage prior. Posterior computation proceeds via an efficient MCMC algorithm. In addition to the usual ease-of-interpretation of hierarchical linear models, the Bayesian formulation produces valid standard errors, a feature that is notably absent in the frequentist framework. Empirical evidence of the attractiveness of the method is illustrated by extensive Monte Carlo simulations and real data analysis. Finally, several extensions of this new approach are presented, providing a unified framework for bi-level variable selection in general models with flexible penalties.

Bayesian Maximum Entropy prediction of soil categories using a traditional soil map as soft information.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brus, D.J.; Bogaert, P.; Heuvelink, G.B.M.

2008-01-01

Bayesian Maximum Entropy was used to estimate the probabilities of occurrence of soil categories in the Netherlands, and to simulate realizations from the associated multi-point pdf. Besides the hard observations (H) of the categories at 8369 locations, the soil map of the Netherlands 1:50 000 was

Bayesian LASSO, scale space and decision making in association genetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasanen, Leena; Holmström, Lasse; Sillanpää, Mikko J

2015-01-01

LASSO is a penalized regression method that facilitates model fitting in situations where there are as many, or even more explanatory variables than observations, and only a few variables are relevant in explaining the data. We focus on the Bayesian version of LASSO and consider four problems that need special attention: (i) controlling false positives, (ii) multiple comparisons, (iii) collinearity among explanatory variables, and (iv) the choice of the tuning parameter that controls the amount of shrinkage and the sparsity of the estimates. The particular application considered is association genetics, where LASSO regression can be used to find links between chromosome locations and phenotypic traits in a biological organism. However, the proposed techniques are relevant also in other contexts where LASSO is used for variable selection. We separate the true associations from false positives using the posterior distribution of the effects (regression coefficients) provided by Bayesian LASSO. We propose to solve the multiple comparisons problem by using simultaneous inference based on the joint posterior distribution of the effects. Bayesian LASSO also tends to distribute an effect among collinear variables, making detection of an association difficult. We propose to solve this problem by considering not only individual effects but also their functionals (i.e. sums and differences). Finally, whereas in Bayesian LASSO the tuning parameter is often regarded as a random variable, we adopt a scale space view and consider a whole range of fixed tuning parameters, instead. The effect estimates and the associated inference are considered for all tuning parameters in the selected range and the results are visualized with color maps that provide useful insights into data and the association problem considered. The methods are illustrated using two sets of artificial data and one real data set, all representing typical settings in association genetics.

Methods for measuring shrinkage

OpenAIRE

Chapman, Paul; Templar, Simon

2006-01-01

This paper presents findings from research amongst European grocery retailers into their methods for measuring shrinkage. The findings indicate that: there is no dominant method for valuing or stating shrinkage; shrinkage in the supply chain is frequently overlooked; data is essential in pinpointing where and when loss occurs and that many retailers collect data at the stock-keeping unit (SKU) level and do so every 6 months. These findings reveal that it is difficult to benc...

Cure shrinkage in casting resins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spencer, J. Brock [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-02-01

A method is described whereby the shrinkage of a casting resin can be determined. Values for the shrinkage of several resin systems in frequent use by Sandia have been measured. A discussion of possible methods for determining the stresses generated by cure shrinkage and thermal contraction is also included.

Bayesian estimation of covariance matrices: Application to market risk management at EDF

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jandrzejewski-Bouriga, M.

2012-01-01

In this thesis, we develop new methods of regularized covariance matrix estimation, under the Bayesian setting. The regularization methodology employed is first related to shrinkage. We investigate a new Bayesian modeling of covariance matrix, based on hierarchical inverse-Wishart distribution, and then derive different estimators under standard loss functions. Comparisons between shrunk and empirical estimators are performed in terms of frequentist performance under different losses. It allows us to highlight the critical importance of the definition of cost function and show the persistent effect of the shrinkage-type prior on inference. In a second time, we consider the problem of covariance matrix estimation in Gaussian graphical models. If the issue is well treated for the decomposable case, it is not the case if you also consider non-decomposable graphs. We then describe a Bayesian and operational methodology to carry out the estimation of covariance matrix of Gaussian graphical models, decomposable or not. This procedure is based on a new and objective method of graphical-model selection, combined with a constrained and regularized estimation of the covariance matrix of the model chosen. The procedures studied effectively manage missing data. These estimation techniques were applied to calculate the covariance matrices involved in the market risk management for portfolios of EDF (Electricity of France), in particular for problems of calculating Value-at-Risk or in Asset Liability Management. (author)

Shrinkage Reducing Admixture for Concrete

OpenAIRE

ECT Team, Purdue

2007-01-01

Concrete shrinkage cracking is a common problem in all types of concrete structures, especially for structures and environments where the cracks are prevalent and the repercussions are most severe. A liquid shrinkage reducing admixture for concrete, developed by GRACE Construction Products and ARCO Chemical Company, that reduces significantly the shrinkage during concrete drying and potentially reduces overall cracking over time.

Accounting for PDMS shrinkage when replicating structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Morten Hannibal; Feidenhans'l, Nikolaj Agentoft; Hansen, Poul-Erik

2014-01-01

are seldom applied to counteract the shrinkage of PDMS. Also, to perform metrological measurements using replica techniques one has to take the shrinkage into account. Thus we report a study of the shrinkage of PDMS with several different mixing ratios and curing temperatures. The shrinkage factor, with its...

Effect of Dolomite as Expansive Agent and Shrinkage Reducing Admixture in Self-Compacting Shrinkage – Compensating Concrete

OpenAIRE

Qosai Sahib Radi Marshdi; Ahlam Hamid Jasim; Haider Abass Obeed

2018-01-01

The principle of using expansive agents has been recommended to manufacture shrinkage compensating concrete provided that an adequate wet curing is carried out. On the other hand, shrinkage-reducing admixture (SRA) in the concrete mixes, has been more recently suggested to reduce the risk of cracking in concrete structures caused by drying shrinkage. This paper is devoted to the study of the influence of complex modifier in the form of superplasticizer, shrinkage reducing admixture and e...

Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

2004-09-01

ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

Mitigation strategies for autogenous shrinkage cracking

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentz, Dale P.; Jensen, Ole Mejlhede

2004-01-01

As the use of high-performance concrete has increased, problems with early-age cracking have become prominent. The reduction in water-to-cement ratio, the incorporation of silica fume, and the increase in binder content of high-performance concretes all contribute to this problem. In this paper......, the fundamental parameters contributing to the autogenous shrinkage and resultant early-age cracking of concrete are presented. Basic characteristics of the cement paste that contribute to or control the autogenous shrinkage response include the surface tension of the pore solution, the geometry of the pore...... of early-age cracking due to autogenous shrinkage. Mitigation strategies discussed in this paper include: the addition of shrinkage-reducing admixtures more commonly used to control drying shrinkage, control of the cement particle size distribution, modification of the mineralogical composition...

System Analysis by Mapping a Fault-tree into a Bayesian-network

Science.gov (United States)

Sheng, B.; Deng, C.; Wang, Y. H.; Tang, L. H.

2018-05-01

In view of the limitations of fault tree analysis in reliability assessment, Bayesian Network (BN) has been studied as an alternative technology. After a brief introduction to the method for mapping a Fault Tree (FT) into an equivalent BN, equations used to calculate the structure importance degree, the probability importance degree and the critical importance degree are presented. Furthermore, the correctness of these equations is proved mathematically. Combining with an aircraft landing gear’s FT, an equivalent BN is developed and analysed. The results show that richer and more accurate information have been achieved through the BN method than the FT, which demonstrates that the BN is a superior technique in both reliability assessment and fault diagnosis.

Soil shrinkage characteristics in swelling soils

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taboada, M.A.

2004-01-01

The objectives of this presentation are to understand soil swelling and shrinkage mechanisms, and the development of desiccation cracks, to distinguish between soils having different magnitude of swelling, as well as the consequences on soil structural behaviour, to know methods to characterize soil swell/shrink potential and to construct soil shrinkage curves, and derive shrinkage indices, as well to apply them to assess soil management effects

AlignerBoost: A Generalized Software Toolkit for Boosting Next-Gen Sequencing Mapping Accuracy Using a Bayesian-Based Mapping Quality Framework.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Qi Zheng

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Accurate mapping of next-generation sequencing (NGS reads to reference genomes is crucial for almost all NGS applications and downstream analyses. Various repetitive elements in human and other higher eukaryotic genomes contribute in large part to ambiguously (non-uniquely mapped reads. Most available NGS aligners attempt to address this by either removing all non-uniquely mapping reads, or reporting one random or "best" hit based on simple heuristics. Accurate estimation of the mapping quality of NGS reads is therefore critical albeit completely lacking at present. Here we developed a generalized software toolkit "AlignerBoost", which utilizes a Bayesian-based framework to accurately estimate mapping quality of ambiguously mapped NGS reads. We tested AlignerBoost with both simulated and real DNA-seq and RNA-seq datasets at various thresholds. In most cases, but especially for reads falling within repetitive regions, AlignerBoost dramatically increases the mapping precision of modern NGS aligners without significantly compromising the sensitivity even without mapping quality filters. When using higher mapping quality cutoffs, AlignerBoost achieves a much lower false mapping rate while exhibiting comparable or higher sensitivity compared to the aligner default modes, therefore significantly boosting the detection power of NGS aligners even using extreme thresholds. AlignerBoost is also SNP-aware, and higher quality alignments can be achieved if provided with known SNPs. AlignerBoost's algorithm is computationally efficient, and can process one million alignments within 30 seconds on a typical desktop computer. AlignerBoost is implemented as a uniform Java application and is freely available at https://github.com/Grice-Lab/AlignerBoost.

AlignerBoost: A Generalized Software Toolkit for Boosting Next-Gen Sequencing Mapping Accuracy Using a Bayesian-Based Mapping Quality Framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Qi; Grice, Elizabeth A

2016-10-01

Accurate mapping of next-generation sequencing (NGS) reads to reference genomes is crucial for almost all NGS applications and downstream analyses. Various repetitive elements in human and other higher eukaryotic genomes contribute in large part to ambiguously (non-uniquely) mapped reads. Most available NGS aligners attempt to address this by either removing all non-uniquely mapping reads, or reporting one random or "best" hit based on simple heuristics. Accurate estimation of the mapping quality of NGS reads is therefore critical albeit completely lacking at present. Here we developed a generalized software toolkit "AlignerBoost", which utilizes a Bayesian-based framework to accurately estimate mapping quality of ambiguously mapped NGS reads. We tested AlignerBoost with both simulated and real DNA-seq and RNA-seq datasets at various thresholds. In most cases, but especially for reads falling within repetitive regions, AlignerBoost dramatically increases the mapping precision of modern NGS aligners without significantly compromising the sensitivity even without mapping quality filters. When using higher mapping quality cutoffs, AlignerBoost achieves a much lower false mapping rate while exhibiting comparable or higher sensitivity compared to the aligner default modes, therefore significantly boosting the detection power of NGS aligners even using extreme thresholds. AlignerBoost is also SNP-aware, and higher quality alignments can be achieved if provided with known SNPs. AlignerBoost's algorithm is computationally efficient, and can process one million alignments within 30 seconds on a typical desktop computer. AlignerBoost is implemented as a uniform Java application and is freely available at https://github.com/Grice-Lab/AlignerBoost.

Bayesian analysis of heterogeneous treatment effects for patient-centered outcomes research.

Science.gov (United States)

Henderson, Nicholas C; Louis, Thomas A; Wang, Chenguang; Varadhan, Ravi

2016-01-01

Evaluation of heterogeneity of treatment effect (HTE) is an essential aspect of personalized medicine and patient-centered outcomes research. Our goal in this article is to promote the use of Bayesian methods for subgroup analysis and to lower the barriers to their implementation by describing the ways in which the companion software beanz can facilitate these types of analyses. To advance this goal, we describe several key Bayesian models for investigating HTE and outline the ways in which they are well-suited to address many of the commonly cited challenges in the study of HTE. Topics highlighted include shrinkage estimation, model choice, sensitivity analysis, and posterior predictive checking. A case study is presented in which we demonstrate the use of the methods discussed.

Volumetric polymerization shrinkage of contemporary composite resins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Halim Nagem Filho

2007-10-01

Full Text Available The polymerization shrinkage of composite resins may affect negatively the clinical outcome of the restoration. Extensive research has been carried out to develop new formulations of composite resins in order to provide good handling characteristics and some dimensional stability during polymerization. The purpose of this study was to analyze, in vitro, the magnitude of the volumetric polymerization shrinkage of 7 contemporary composite resins (Definite, Suprafill, SureFil, Filtek Z250, Fill Magic, Alert, and Solitaire to determine whether there are differences among these materials. The tests were conducted with precision of 0.1 mg. The volumetric shrinkage was measured by hydrostatic weighing before and after polymerization and calculated by known mathematical equations. One-way ANOVA (a or = 0.05 was used to determine statistically significant differences in volumetric shrinkage among the tested composite resins. Suprafill (1.87±0.01 and Definite (1.89±0.01 shrank significantly less than the other composite resins. SureFil (2.01±0.06, Filtek Z250 (1.99±0.03, and Fill Magic (2.02±0.02 presented intermediate levels of polymerization shrinkage. Alert and Solitaire presented the highest degree of polymerization shrinkage. Knowing the polymerization shrinkage rates of the commercially available composite resins, the dentist would be able to choose between using composite resins with lower polymerization shrinkage rates or adopting technical or operational procedures to minimize the adverse effects deriving from resin contraction during light-activation.

Silorane- and high filled-based"low-shrinkage" resin composites: shrinkage, flexural strength and modulus

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar Augusto Galvão Arrais

2013-04-01

Full Text Available This study compared the volumetric shrinkage (VS, flexural strength (FS and flexural modulus (FM properties of the low-shrinkage resin composite Aelite LS (Bisco to those of Filtek LS (3M ESPE and two regular dimethacrylate-based resin composites, the microfilled Heliomolar (Ivoclar Vivadent and the microhybrid Aelite Universal (Bisco. The composites (n = 5 were placed on the Teflon pedestal of a video-imaging device, and VS was recorded every minute for 5 min after 40 s of light exposure. For the FS and FM tests, resin discs (0.6 mm in thickness and 6.0 mm in diameter were obtained (n = 12 and submitted to a piston-ring biaxial test in a universal testing machine. VS, FS, and FM data were submitted to two-way repeated measures and one-way ANOVA, respectively, followed by Tukey's post-hoc test (a = 5%. Filtek LS showed lower VS than did Aelite LS, which in turn showed lower shrinkage than did the other composites. Aelite Universal and Filtek LS exhibited higher FS than did Heliomolar and Aelite LS, both of which exhibited the highest FM. No significant difference in FM was noted between Filtek LS and Aelite Universal, while Heliomolar exhibited the lowest values. Aelite LS was not as effective as Filtek LS regarding shrinkage, although both low-shrinkage composites showed lower VS than did the other composites. Only Filtek LS exhibited FS and FM comparable to those of the regular microhybrid dimethacrylate-based resin composite.

Distinct spontaneous shrinkage of a sporadic vestibular schwannoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Huang, Xiaowen; Cayé-Thomasen, Per; Stangerup, Sven-Eric

2013-01-01

on "shrinkage" or "negative growth" or "regression" or "involution" of the tumor were selected, and the contents on the rate, extent and mechanism of spontaneous tumor shrinkage were extracted and reviewed. The reported rate of spontaneous shrinkage of vestibular schwannoma is 5-10% of patients managed......We present a case with outspoken spontaneous vestibular schwannoma shrinkage and review the related literature. The patient was initially diagnosed with a left-sided, intrameatal vestibular schwannoma, which subsequently grew into the cerebello-pontine angle (CPA), followed by total shrinkage...... of the CPA component without any intervention over a 12-year observation period. The literature on spontaneous tumor shrinkage was retrieved by searching the subject terms "vestibular schwannoma, conservative management" in PubMed/MEDLINE database, without a time limit. Of the published data, the articles...

Sparse-grid, reduced-basis Bayesian inversion: Nonaffine-parametric nonlinear equations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chen, Peng, E-mail: peng@ices.utexas.edu [The Institute for Computational Engineering and Sciences, The University of Texas at Austin, 201 East 24th Street, Stop C0200, Austin, TX 78712-1229 (United States); Schwab, Christoph, E-mail: christoph.schwab@sam.math.ethz.ch [Seminar für Angewandte Mathematik, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule, Römistrasse 101, CH-8092 Zürich (Switzerland)

2016-07-01

We extend the reduced basis (RB) accelerated Bayesian inversion methods for affine-parametric, linear operator equations which are considered in [16,17] to non-affine, nonlinear parametric operator equations. We generalize the analysis of sparsity of parametric forward solution maps in [20] and of Bayesian inversion in [48,49] to the fully discrete setting, including Petrov–Galerkin high-fidelity (“HiFi”) discretization of the forward maps. We develop adaptive, stochastic collocation based reduction methods for the efficient computation of reduced bases on the parametric solution manifold. The nonaffinity and nonlinearity with respect to (w.r.t.) the distributed, uncertain parameters and the unknown solution is collocated; specifically, by the so-called Empirical Interpolation Method (EIM). For the corresponding Bayesian inversion problems, computational efficiency is enhanced in two ways: first, expectations w.r.t. the posterior are computed by adaptive quadratures with dimension-independent convergence rates proposed in [49]; the present work generalizes [49] to account for the impact of the PG discretization in the forward maps on the convergence rates of the Quantities of Interest (QoI for short). Second, we propose to perform the Bayesian estimation only w.r.t. a parsimonious, RB approximation of the posterior density. Based on the approximation results in [49], the infinite-dimensional parametric, deterministic forward map and operator admit N-term RB and EIM approximations which converge at rates which depend only on the sparsity of the parametric forward map. In several numerical experiments, the proposed algorithms exhibit dimension-independent convergence rates which equal, at least, the currently known rate estimates for N-term approximation. We propose to accelerate Bayesian estimation by first offline construction of reduced basis surrogates of the Bayesian posterior density. The parsimonious surrogates can then be employed for online data

Dynamics of tissue shrinkage during ablative temperature exposures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rossmann, Christian; Haemmerich, Dieter; Garrett-Mayer, Elizabeth; Rattay, Frank

2014-01-01

There is a lack of studies that examine the dynamics of heat-induced shrinkage of organ tissues. Clinical procedures such as radiofrequency ablation, microwave ablation or high-intensity focused ultrasound, use heat to treat diseases such as cancer and cardiac arrhythmia. When heat is applied to tissues, shrinkage occurs due to protein denaturation, dehydration and contraction of collagen at temperatures greater 50 °C. This is particularly relevant for image-guided procedures such as tumor ablation, where pre- and post-treatment images are compared and any changes in dimensions must be considered to avoid misinterpretations of the treatment outcome. We present data from ex vivo, isothermal shrinkage tests in porcine liver tissue, where axial changes in tissue length were recorded during 15 min of heating to temperatures between 60 and 95 °C. A mathematical model was developed to accurately describe the time and temperature-dependent shrinkage behavior. The shrinkage dynamics had the same characteristics independent of temperature; the estimated relative shrinkage, adjusted for time since death, after 15 min heating to temperatures of 60, 65, 75, 85 and 95 °C, was 12.3, 13.8, 16.6, 19.2 and 21.7%, respectively. Our results demonstrate the shrinkage dynamics of organ tissues, and suggest the importance of considering tissue shrinkage for thermal ablative treatments. (paper)

Probabilistic mapping of descriptive health status responses onto health state utilities using Bayesian networks: an empirical analysis converting SF-12 into EQ-5D utility index in a national US sample.

Science.gov (United States)

Le, Quang A; Doctor, Jason N

2011-05-01

As quality-adjusted life years have become the standard metric in health economic evaluations, mapping health-profile or disease-specific measures onto preference-based measures to obtain quality-adjusted life years has become a solution when health utilities are not directly available. However, current mapping methods are limited due to their predictive validity, reliability, and/or other methodological issues. We employ probability theory together with a graphical model, called a Bayesian network, to convert health-profile measures into preference-based measures and to compare the results to those estimated with current mapping methods. A sample of 19,678 adults who completed both the 12-item Short Form Health Survey (SF-12v2) and EuroQoL 5D (EQ-5D) questionnaires from the 2003 Medical Expenditure Panel Survey was split into training and validation sets. Bayesian networks were constructed to explore the probabilistic relationships between each EQ-5D domain and 12 items of the SF-12v2. The EQ-5D utility scores were estimated on the basis of the predicted probability of each response level of the 5 EQ-5D domains obtained from the Bayesian inference process using the following methods: Monte Carlo simulation, expected utility, and most-likely probability. Results were then compared with current mapping methods including multinomial logistic regression, ordinary least squares, and censored least absolute deviations. The Bayesian networks consistently outperformed other mapping models in the overall sample (mean absolute error=0.077, mean square error=0.013, and R overall=0.802), in different age groups, number of chronic conditions, and ranges of the EQ-5D index. Bayesian networks provide a new robust and natural approach to map health status responses into health utility measures for health economic evaluations.

The shrinkage of hardening cement paste and mortar

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Haas, de G.D.; Kreijger, P.C.; Niël, E.M.M.G.; Slagter, J.C.; Stein, H.N.; Theissing, E.M.; Wallendael, van M.

1975-01-01

This paper is an abstract from the report of the commission B10: "The influence of the shrinkage of cement on the shrink-age of concrete", of the Netherlands Committee for Concrete Research. Measurements of pulse velocity, volume shrinkage and heat of hydration on hardening portland cement support

Thermal shrinkage for shoulder instability.

Science.gov (United States)

Toth, Alison P; Warren, Russell F; Petrigliano, Frank A; Doward, David A; Cordasco, Frank A; Altchek, David W; O'Brien, Stephen J

2011-07-01

Thermal capsular shrinkage was popular for the treatment of shoulder instability, despite a paucity of outcomes data in the literature defining the indications for this procedure or supporting its long-term efficacy. The purpose of this study was to perform a clinical evaluation of radiofrequency thermal capsular shrinkage for the treatment of shoulder instability, with a minimum 2-year follow-up. From 1999 to 2001, 101 consecutive patients with mild to moderate shoulder instability underwent shoulder stabilization surgery with thermal capsular shrinkage using a monopolar radiofrequency device. Follow-up included a subjective outcome questionnaire, discussion of pain, instability, and activity level. Mean follow-up was 3.3 years (range 2.0-4.7 years). The thermal capsular shrinkage procedure failed due to instability and/or pain in 31% of shoulders at a mean time of 39 months. In patients with unidirectional anterior instability and those with concomitant labral repair, the procedure proved effective. Patients with multidirectional instability had moderate success. In contrast, four of five patients with isolated posterior instability failed. Thermal capsular shrinkage has been advocated for the treatment of shoulder instability, particularly mild to moderate capsular laxity. The ease of the procedure makes it attractive. However, our retrospective review revealed an overall failure rate of 31% in 80 patients with 2-year minimum follow-up. This mid- to long-term cohort study adds to the literature lacking support for thermal capsulorrhaphy in general, particularly posterior instability. The online version of this article (doi:10.1007/s11420-010-9187-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Thermal Shrinkage for Shoulder Instability

OpenAIRE

Toth, Alison P.; Warren, Russell F.; Petrigliano, Frank A.; Doward, David A.; Cordasco, Frank A.; Altchek, David W.; O’Brien, Stephen J.

2010-01-01

Thermal capsular shrinkage was popular for the treatment of shoulder instability, despite a paucity of outcomes data in the literature defining the indications for this procedure or supporting its long-term efficacy. The purpose of this study was to perform a clinical evaluation of radiofrequency thermal capsular shrinkage for the treatment of shoulder instability, with a minimum 2-year follow-up. From 1999 to 2001, 101 consecutive patients with mild to moderate shoulder instability underwent...

REMOVING BIASES IN RESOLVED STELLAR MASS MAPS OF GALAXY DISKS THROUGH SUCCESSIVE BAYESIAN MARGINALIZATION

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Martínez-García, Eric E. [Cerrada del Rey 40-A, Chimalcoyoc Tlalpan, Ciudad de México, C.P. 14630, México (Mexico); González-Lópezlira, Rosa A.; Bruzual A, Gustavo [Instituto de Radioastronomía y Astrofísica, UNAM, Campus Morelia, Michoacán, C.P. 58089, México (Mexico); Magris C, Gladis, E-mail: martinezgarciaeric@gmail.com [Centro de Investigaciones de Astronomía, Apartado Postal 264, Mérida 5101-A (Venezuela, Bolivarian Republic of)

2017-01-20

Stellar masses of galaxies are frequently obtained by fitting stellar population synthesis models to galaxy photometry or spectra. The state of the art method resolves spatial structures within a galaxy to assess the total stellar mass content. In comparison to unresolved studies, resolved methods yield, on average, higher fractions of stellar mass for galaxies. In this work we improve the current method in order to mitigate a bias related to the resolved spatial distribution derived for the mass. The bias consists in an apparent filamentary mass distribution and a spatial coincidence between mass structures and dust lanes near spiral arms. The improved method is based on iterative Bayesian marginalization, through a new algorithm we have named Bayesian Successive Priors (BSP). We have applied BSP to M51 and to a pilot sample of 90 spiral galaxies from the Ohio State University Bright Spiral Galaxy Survey. By quantitatively comparing both methods, we find that the average fraction of stellar mass missed by unresolved studies is only half what previously thought. In contrast with the previous method, the output BSP mass maps bear a better resemblance to near-infrared images.

Further Evaluation of Covariate Analysis using Empirical Bayes Estimates in Population Pharmacokinetics: the Perception of Shrinkage and Likelihood Ratio Test.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xu Steven; Yuan, Min; Yang, Haitao; Feng, Yan; Xu, Jinfeng; Pinheiro, Jose

2017-01-01

Covariate analysis based on population pharmacokinetics (PPK) is used to identify clinically relevant factors. The likelihood ratio test (LRT) based on nonlinear mixed effect model fits is currently recommended for covariate identification, whereas individual empirical Bayesian estimates (EBEs) are considered unreliable due to the presence of shrinkage. The objectives of this research were to investigate the type I error for LRT and EBE approaches, to confirm the similarity of power between the LRT and EBE approaches from a previous report and to explore the influence of shrinkage on LRT and EBE inferences. Using an oral one-compartment PK model with a single covariate impacting on clearance, we conducted a wide range of simulations according to a two-way factorial design. The results revealed that the EBE-based regression not only provided almost identical power for detecting a covariate effect, but also controlled the false positive rate better than the LRT approach. Shrinkage of EBEs is likely not the root cause for decrease in power or inflated false positive rate although the size of the covariate effect tends to be underestimated at high shrinkage. In summary, contrary to the current recommendations, EBEs may be a better choice for statistical tests in PPK covariate analysis compared to LRT. We proposed a three-step covariate modeling approach for population PK analysis to utilize the advantages of EBEs while overcoming their shortcomings, which allows not only markedly reducing the run time for population PK analysis, but also providing more accurate covariate tests.

Shrinkage Degree in $L_{2}$ -Rescale Boosting for Regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Lin; Lin, Shaobo; Wang, Yao; Xu, Zongben

2017-08-01

L 2 -rescale boosting ( L 2 -RBoosting) is a variant of L 2 -Boosting, which can essentially improve the generalization performance of L 2 -Boosting. The key feature of L 2 -RBoosting lies in introducing a shrinkage degree to rescale the ensemble estimate in each iteration. Thus, the shrinkage degree determines the performance of L 2 -RBoosting. The aim of this paper is to develop a concrete analysis concerning how to determine the shrinkage degree in L 2 -RBoosting. We propose two feasible ways to select the shrinkage degree. The first one is to parameterize the shrinkage degree and the other one is to develop a data-driven approach. After rigorously analyzing the importance of the shrinkage degree in L 2 -RBoosting, we compare the pros and cons of the proposed methods. We find that although these approaches can reach the same learning rates, the structure of the final estimator of the parameterized approach is better, which sometimes yields a better generalization capability when the number of sample is finite. With this, we recommend to parameterize the shrinkage degree of L 2 -RBoosting. We also present an adaptive parameter-selection strategy for shrinkage degree and verify its feasibility through both theoretical analysis and numerical verification. The obtained results enhance the understanding of L 2 -RBoosting and give guidance on how to use it for regression tasks.

Bayesian risk maps for Schistosoma mansoni and hookworm mono-infections in a setting where both parasites co-exist

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanna Raso

2007-11-01

Full Text Available There is growing interest in the use of Bayesian geostatistical models for predicting the spatial distribution of parasitic infections, including hookworm, Schistosoma mansoni and co-infections with both parasites. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of mono-infections with either hookworm or S. mansoni in a setting where both parasites co-exist. School-based cross-sectional parasitological and questionnaire surveys were carried out in 57 rural schools in the Man region, western Côte d’Ivoire. A single stool specimen was obtained from each schoolchild attending grades 3-5. Stool specimens were processed by the Kato-Katz technique and an ether concentration method and examined for the presence of hookworm and S. mansoni eggs. The combined results from the two diagnostic approaches were considered for the infection status of each child. Demographic data (i.e. age and sex were obtained from readily available school registries. Each child’s socio-economic status was estimated, using the questionnaire data following a household-based asset approach. Environmental data were extracted from satellite imagery. The different data sources were incorporated into a geographical information system. Finally, a Bayesian spatial multinomial regression model was constructed and the spatial patterns of S. mansoni and hookworm mono-infections were investigated using Bayesian kriging. Our approach facilitated the production of smooth risk maps for hookworm and S. mansoni mono-infections that can be utilized for targeting control interventions. We argue that in settings where S. mansoni and hookworm co-exist and control efforts are under way, there is a need for both mono- and co-infection risk maps to enhance the cost-effectiveness of control programmes.

A Bayesian and Physics-Based Ground Motion Parameters Map Generation System

Science.gov (United States)

Ramirez-Guzman, L.; Quiroz, A.; Sandoval, H.; Perez-Yanez, C.; Ruiz, A. L.; Delgado, R.; Macias, M. A.; Alcántara, L.

2014-12-01

We present the Ground Motion Parameters Map Generation (GMPMG) system developed by the Institute of Engineering at the National Autonomous University of Mexico (UNAM). The system delivers estimates of information associated with the social impact of earthquakes, engineering ground motion parameters (gmp), and macroseismic intensity maps. The gmp calculated are peak ground acceleration and velocity (pga and pgv) and response spectral acceleration (SA). The GMPMG relies on real-time data received from strong ground motion stations belonging to UNAM's networks throughout Mexico. Data are gathered via satellite and internet service providers, and managed with the data acquisition software Earthworm. The system is self-contained and can perform all calculations required for estimating gmp and intensity maps due to earthquakes, automatically or manually. An initial data processing, by baseline correcting and removing records containing glitches or low signal-to-noise ratio, is performed. The system then assigns a hypocentral location using first arrivals and a simplified 3D model, followed by a moment tensor inversion, which is performed using a pre-calculated Receiver Green's Tensors (RGT) database for a realistic 3D model of Mexico. A backup system to compute epicentral location and magnitude is in place. A Bayesian Kriging is employed to combine recorded values with grids of computed gmp. The latter are obtained by using appropriate ground motion prediction equations (for pgv, pga and SA with T=0.3, 0.5, 1 and 1.5 s ) and numerical simulations performed in real time, using the aforementioned RGT database (for SA with T=2, 2.5 and 3 s). Estimated intensity maps are then computed using SA(T=2S) to Modified Mercalli Intensity correlations derived for central Mexico. The maps are made available to the institutions in charge of the disaster prevention systems. In order to analyze the accuracy of the maps, we compare them against observations not considered in the

The influence of shrinkage reducing admixtures on plastic shrinkage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mora, J.

2003-12-01

Full Text Available Shrinkage reducing admixtures (SRAs are viable alternatives for reducing plastic shrinkage cracking in concrete. The objective of the present paper is to study early age plastic shrinkage in restrained concrete elements, where three different SRAs have been used. The influence of the admixture is analyzed through the following measurements: capillary pressure, evaporation, temperature evolution, crack evolution and settlement. The tests for studying the cracking and deformation were made on two different configurations (i.e., restrained prisms with reduced cross-section and restrained panel, in a wind tunnel, with controlled wind temperature and velocity. The conclusions obtained indicate the viability of the use of this type of admixture and the usefulness of the test methods.

Los aditivos reductores de retracción (SRAs se plantean, hoy en día, como una alternativa viable para reducir la fisuración por retracción plástica. El objetivo del presente artículo es conocer mejor y predecir el comportamiento a primeras edades de la retracción plástica en elementos estructurales coaccionados, a los que se les ha añadido diversos aditivos reductores de retracción (tres tipos diferentes. Esta influencia se analiza a través de las siguientes propiedades: presión capilar, evaporación, evolución de temperaturas, evolución de fisuración, y deformaciones verticales de asentamiento. Los ensayos para estudiar la fisuración y las deformaciones se han realizado sobre diferentes configuraciones (prisma restringido con estrangulamiento y panel restringido, en un túnel de viento, con temperaturas y velocidades de viento controladas. Las conclusiones obtenidas señalan la viabilidad del empleo de este tipo de aditivos y la bondad de los métodos experimentales utilizados.

A BAYESIAN SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL MODELING APPROACH TO MAPPING GEOGRAPHIC VARIATION IN MORTALITY RATES FOR SUBNATIONAL AREAS WITH R-INLA.

Science.gov (United States)

Khana, Diba; Rossen, Lauren M; Hedegaard, Holly; Warner, Margaret

2018-01-01

Hierarchical Bayes models have been used in disease mapping to examine small scale geographic variation. State level geographic variation for less common causes of mortality outcomes have been reported however county level variation is rarely examined. Due to concerns about statistical reliability and confidentiality, county-level mortality rates based on fewer than 20 deaths are suppressed based on Division of Vital Statistics, National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) statistical reliability criteria, precluding an examination of spatio-temporal variation in less common causes of mortality outcomes such as suicide rates (SRs) at the county level using direct estimates. Existing Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategies can be applied via Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) in R to a large number of rare causes of mortality outcomes to enable examination of spatio-temporal variations on smaller geographic scales such as counties. This method allows examination of spatiotemporal variation across the entire U.S., even where the data are sparse. We used mortality data from 2005-2015 to explore spatiotemporal variation in SRs, as one particular application of the Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling strategy in R-INLA to predict year and county-specific SRs. Specifically, hierarchical Bayesian spatio-temporal models were implemented with spatially structured and unstructured random effects, correlated time effects, time varying confounders and space-time interaction terms in the software R-INLA, borrowing strength across both counties and years to produce smoothed county level SRs. Model-based estimates of SRs were mapped to explore geographic variation.

Assessment of concrete creep and shrinkage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Trivedi, Neha; Singh, R.K.

2012-01-01

B-3 model prediction of concrete creep and shrinkage strains on cylindrical specimen and BARC Containment test model (BARCOM) are presented. Experimental shrinkage strain is shown to be in agreement with B-3 model predictions for cylindrical specimen and BARCOM. Creep strain in cylindrical specimen is found to be in agreement with B-3 model. In BARCOM for wall cast in different pores, creep strain is in agreement with B-3 model in hoop direction however in longitudinal direction, observed creep strain in higher than B-3 model. For dome structure cast in a single pour, experimental creep strain shows confirmity with B-3 model both in hoop and longitudinal directions. The study on concrete aging and average longitudinal shrinkage strain is carried out. (author)

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

OpenAIRE

Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike

2016-01-01

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...

PLASTIC SHRINKAGE CONTROLLING EFFECT BY POLYPROPYLENE SHORT FIBER WITH HYDROPHILY

Science.gov (United States)

Hosoda, Akira; Sadatsuki, Yoshitomo; Oshima, Akihiro; Ishii, Akina; Tsubaki, Tatsuya

The aim of this research is to clarify the mechanism of controlling plastic shrinkage crack by adding small amout of synthetic short fiber, and to propose optimum polypropylene short fiber to control plastic shrinkage crack. In this research, the effect of the hydrophily of polypropylene fiber was investigated in the amount of plastic shrinkage of mortar, total area of plastic shrinkage crack, and bond properties between fiber and mortar. The plastic shrinkage test of morar was conducted under high temperature, low relative humidity, and constant wind velocity. When polypropylene fiber had hydrophily, the amount of plastic shrinkage of mortar was restrained, which was because cement paste in morar was captured by hydrophilic fiber and then bleeding of mortar was restrained. With hydrophily, plastic shrinkage of mortar was restrained and bridging effect was improved due to better bond, which led to remarkable reduction of plastic shrinkage crack. Based on experimental results, the way of developing optimum polypropylene short fiber for actual construction was proposed. The fiber should have large hydrophily and small diameter, and should be used in as small amount as possible in order not to disturb workability of concrete.

Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

Since the publication of the first edition, many new Bayesian tools and methods have been developed for space-time data analysis, the predictive modeling of health outcomes, and other spatial biostatistical areas...

Drying Shrinkage Microcracking in Cement-based Materials

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bisschop, J.; Van Mier, J.G.M.

2002-01-01

In this paper the nature of drying shrinkage microcracking in a variety of model cementbased materials, as well as in more practical types of concrete is described. The model mixtures were studied to elucidate the mechanisms of drying shrinkage microcracking and the factors that influence these

Mesoscopic analysis of drying shrinkage damage in a cementitious material

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Moonen, P.; Pedersen, R.R.; Simone, A.

2008-01-01

Concrete and cement-based materials exhibit shrinkage when exposed to drying. Structural effects and inhomogeneity of material properties adverse free shrinkage, hereby inducing stress concentrations and possibly damage. In this contribution, the magnitude of shrinkage- induced damage during...... temperatures are considered: 35 °C and 50 °C. Significantly more micro-damage and higher internal stresses are found for the latter, revealing the importance of drying shrinkage damage, even at laboratory scale....

Computation of shrinkage stresses in prestressed concrete containments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wu, R.F.; Ouyang, H.

1989-01-01

According to a survey, surface cracking on PCRVs and PCCs under the investigations is confined to drying shrinkage and thermal strain effects and no instances of structurally significant cracking was been found. In this paper, the authors use FEM to compute humidity distribution in drying concrete and shrinkage stresses by internal restraint. Since PCC is built segment by segment in several years, a computational model taking into account construction sequence is presented and shrinkage stresses by external restraints are calculated with the model

Heat shrinkage of electron beam modified EVA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Datta, S.K.; Chaki, T.K.; Bhowmick, A.K.

1997-01-01

Heat shrinkage of electron beam modified ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) has been investigated over a range of times, temperatures, stretching, irradiation doses and trimethylolpropane trimethacrylate (TMPTMA) levels. The irradiated (radiation dose 50 kGy and TMPTMA level 1%) and stretched (100% elongation) sample shrinks to a maximum level when kept at 453K temperature for 60 s. The heat shrinkage of samples irradiated with radiation doses of 20, 50, 100 and 150 kGy increases sharply with increasing stretching in the initial stage. Amnesia rating decreases with increasing radiation dose and TMPTMA level as well as gel content. The high radiation dose and TMPTMA level lower the heat shrinkage due to the chain scission. The effect of temperature at which extension is carried out on heat shrinkage is marginal. The irradiated (radiation dose 50 kGy and TMPTMA level 1%) EVA tubes of different dimensions expanded in a laboratory grade tube expander show similar behaviour at 453K and 60 s. The X-ray and DSC studies reveal that the crystallinity increases on stretching due to orientation of chains and it decreases to a considerable extent on heat shrinking. The theoretical and experimental values of heat shrinkage for tubes and rectangular strips are in good accord, when the radiation dose is 50 kGy and TMPTMA level 1%. (author)

Heat shrinkage of electron beam modified EVA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Datta, S.K.; Chaki, T.K.; Bhowmick, A.K. [Indian Institute of Technology, Kharagpur (India). Rubber Technology Center; Tikku, V.K.; Pradhan, N.K. [NICCO Corporation Ltd., (Cable Div.), Calcutta (India)

1997-10-01

Heat shrinkage of electron beam modified ethylene vinyl acetate copolymer (EVA) has been investigated over a range of times, temperatures, stretching, irradiation doses and trimethylolpropane trimethacrylate (TMPTMA) levels. The irradiated (radiation dose 50 kGy and TMPTMA level 1%) and stretched (100% elongation) sample shrinks to a maximum level when kept at 453K temperature for 60 s. The heat shrinkage of samples irradiated with radiation doses of 20, 50, 100 and 150 kGy increases sharply with increasing stretching in the initial stage. Amnesia rating decreases with increasing radiation dose and TMPTMA level as well as gel content. The high radiation dose and TMPTMA level lower the heat shrinkage due to the chain scission. The effect of temperature at which extension is carried out on heat shrinkage is marginal. The irradiated (radiation dose 50 kGy and TMPTMA level 1%) EVA tubes of different dimensions expanded in a laboratory grade tube expander show similar behaviour at 453K and 60 s. The X-ray and DSC studies reveal that the crystallinity increases on stretching due to orientation of chains and it decreases to a considerable extent on heat shrinking. The theoretical and experimental values of heat shrinkage for tubes and rectangular strips are in good accord, when the radiation dose is 50 kGy and TMPTMA level 1%. (author).

Bayesian mapping of HIV infection among women of reproductive age in Rwanda.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

François Niragire

Full Text Available HIV prevalence is rising and has been consistently higher among women in Rwanda whereas a decreasing national HIV prevalence rate in the adult population has stabilised since 2005. Factors explaining the increased vulnerability of women to HIV infection are not currently well understood. A statistical mapping at smaller geographic units and the identification of key HIV risk factors are crucial for pragmatic and more efficient interventions. The data used in this study were extracted from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey data for 6952 women. A full Bayesian geo-additive logistic regression model was fitted to data in order to assess the effect of key risk factors and map district-level spatial effects on the risk of HIV infection. The results showed that women who had STIs, concurrent sexual partners in the 12 months prior to the survey, a sex debut at earlier age than 19 years, were living in a woman-headed or high-economic status household were significantly associated with a higher risk of HIV infection. There was a protective effect of high HIV knowledge and perception. Women occupied in agriculture, and those residing in rural areas were also associated with lower risk of being infected. This study provides district-level maps of the variation of HIV infection among women of child-bearing age in Rwanda. The maps highlight areas where women are at a higher risk of infection; the aspect that proximate and distal factors alone could not uncover. There are distinctive geographic patterns, although statistically insignificant, of the risk of HIV infection suggesting potential effectiveness of district specific interventions. The results also suggest that changes in sexual behaviour can yield significant results in controlling HIV infection in Rwanda.

Bayesian mapping of HIV infection among women of reproductive age in Rwanda.

Science.gov (United States)

Niragire, François; Achia, Thomas N O; Lyambabaje, Alexandre; Ntaganira, Joseph

2015-01-01

HIV prevalence is rising and has been consistently higher among women in Rwanda whereas a decreasing national HIV prevalence rate in the adult population has stabilised since 2005. Factors explaining the increased vulnerability of women to HIV infection are not currently well understood. A statistical mapping at smaller geographic units and the identification of key HIV risk factors are crucial for pragmatic and more efficient interventions. The data used in this study were extracted from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey data for 6952 women. A full Bayesian geo-additive logistic regression model was fitted to data in order to assess the effect of key risk factors and map district-level spatial effects on the risk of HIV infection. The results showed that women who had STIs, concurrent sexual partners in the 12 months prior to the survey, a sex debut at earlier age than 19 years, were living in a woman-headed or high-economic status household were significantly associated with a higher risk of HIV infection. There was a protective effect of high HIV knowledge and perception. Women occupied in agriculture, and those residing in rural areas were also associated with lower risk of being infected. This study provides district-level maps of the variation of HIV infection among women of child-bearing age in Rwanda. The maps highlight areas where women are at a higher risk of infection; the aspect that proximate and distal factors alone could not uncover. There are distinctive geographic patterns, although statistically insignificant, of the risk of HIV infection suggesting potential effectiveness of district specific interventions. The results also suggest that changes in sexual behaviour can yield significant results in controlling HIV infection in Rwanda.

Dry shrinkage characteristics of buffer materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Suzuki, H. [ITC, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan); Fujita, A.

1999-03-01

Generation of cracks due to drying of compressed bentonite was observed by changing the initial water content to obtain shrinkage constants such as shrinkage limit and shrinking rate. As a result, generation of practically no cracks was observed when the initial water content of samples was below 13%. The volume change due to drying increased with the water content in the sample, and the shrinkage constants were found to depend on the initial water content. Further, the one-dimensional compression strength after drying was compared with that before drying in order to clarify the effect of cracks generated by drying on the mechanical strength. As a result, the dry sample with cracks proved to have large one-dimensional compression strength or E{sub 50} compared to wet samples, so that the mechanical strength was kept even after drying. (H. Baba)

DOES GENDER EQUALITY LEAD TO BETTER-PERFORMING ECONOMIES? A BAYESIAN CAUSAL MAP APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yelda YÜCEL

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This study explores the existence of relationships between gender inequalities –represented by the components of the World Economic Forum (WEF Global Gender Gap Index– and the major macroeconomic indicators. The relationships within gender inequalities in education, the labour market, health and the political arena, and between gender inequalities and gross macroeconomic aggregates were modelled with the Bayesian Causal Map, an effective tool that is used to analyze cause-effect relations and conditional dependencies between variables. A data set of 128 countries during the period 2007–2011 is used. Findings reveal that some inequalities have high levels of interaction with each other. In addition, eradicating gender inequalities is found to be associated with better economic performance, mainly in the form of higher gross domestic product growth, investment, and competitiveness.

Drying shrinkage problems in high PI subgrade soils.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

The main objective of this study was to investigate the longitudinal cracking in pavements due to drying : shrinkage of high PI subgrade soils. The study involved laboartory soil testing and modeling. The : shrinkage cracks usually occur within the v...

Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2014-01-06

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.; Pojonk, Oliver; Rosic, Bojana V.; Zander, Elmar

2014-01-01

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

Variation of Shrinkage Strain within the Depth of Concrete Beams

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jong-Hyun Jeong

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The variation of shrinkage strain within beam depth was examined through four series of time-dependent laboratory experiments on unreinforced concrete beam specimens. Two types of beam specimens, horizontally cast and vertically cast, were tested; shrinkage variation was observed in the horizontally cast specimens. This indicated that the shrinkage variation within the beam depth was due to water bleeding and tamping during the placement of the fresh concrete. Shrinkage strains were measured within the beam depth by two types of strain gages, surface-attached and embedded. The shrinkage strain distribution within the beam depth showed a consistent tendency for the two types of gages. The test beams were cut into four sections after completion of the test, and the cutting planes were divided into four equal sub-areas to measure the aggregate concentration for each sub-area of the cutting plane. The aggregate concentration increased towards the bottom of the beam. The shrinkage strain distribution was estimated by Hobbs’ equation, which accounts for the change of aggregate volume concentration.

Volume change of limestone and its effects on drying shrinkage of concrete

OpenAIRE

YAGI, Shogo; AQUINO, Carlos; INOUE, Masumi; OKAMOTO, Takahisa

2010-01-01

Recently, the cracks of concrete by drying shrinkage become one of the problems in the construction industry in Japan. The drying shrinkage decreases when the concrete is produced with limestone aggregate. However, it is not clear why the drying shrinkage is decreased. The purpose of this study is to clarify the relation between the drying shrinkage of concrete and the limestone aggregate. In this study, the experiments about the strength, elasticity and drying shrinkage of concrete and the p...

Creep and shrinkage of concrete according to Eurocode 2

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Milićević Ivan M.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the procedure for calculation of creep coefficient and shrinkage strain according to Eurocode 2 (SRPS EN 1992-1-1:2004. The calculated values of final creep coefficient and shrinkage strain, for the usual design conditions, are given in Annexes. The influence of key parameters on final creep coefficient and shrinkage strain is analyzed and the comparison between their final values calculated according to Eurocode 2 and BAB 87 is presented.

Reduction of the Early Autogenous Shrinkage of High Strength Concrete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Drago Saje

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The results of a laboratory investigation on the early autogenous shrinkage of high strength concrete, and the possibilities of its reduction, are presented. Such concrete demonstrates significant autogenous shrinkage, which should, however, be limited in the early stages of its development in order to prevent the occurrence of cracks and/or drop in the load-carrying capacity of concrete structures. The following possibilities for reducing autogenous shrinkage were investigated: the use of low-heat cement, a shrinkage-reducing admixture, steel fibres, premoistened polypropylene fibres, and presoaked lightweight aggregate. In the case of the use of presoaked natural lightweight aggregate, with a fraction from 2 to 4 mm, the early autogenous shrinkage of one-day-old high strength concrete decreased by about 90%, with no change to the concrete's compressive strength in comparison with that of the reference concrete.

Evaluation of polymerization shrinkage, polymerization shrinkage stress, wear resistance, and compressive strength of a silorane-based composite: A finite element analysis study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Suresh Mitthra

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Understanding the mechanical properties is important in predicting the clinical behavior of composites. Finite element analysis (FEA evaluates properties of materials replicating clinical scenario. Aim: This study evaluated polymerization shrinkage and stress, wear resistance (WR, and compressive strength (CS of silorane in comparison with two methacrylate resins. Settings and Design: This study design was a numerical study using FEA. Materials and Methods: Three-dimensional (3D models of maxillary premolar with Class I cavities (2 mm depth, 4 mm length, and 2.5 mm width created and restored with silorane, nanohybrid, and microhybrid; Groups I, II, and III, respectively. Loads of 200–600 N were applied. Polymerization shrinkage was first determined by displacement produced in the X, Y, and Z planes. Maximum stress distribution due to shrinkage was calculated using AN SYS software. 3D cube models of composite resins were simulated with varying filler particle size. Similar loads were applied. WR and compressive stress were calculated: K W L/H and load/cross-sectional area, respectively. Statistical analysis done using one-way ANOVA, Kruskal–Wallis, and Tukey's honestly significant difference test (P < 0.05. Results: Polymerization shrinkage (0.99% and shrinkage stress (233.21 Mpa of silorane were less compared to microhybrid (2.14% and 472.43 Mpa and nanohybrid (2.32% and 464.88 Mpa. Silorane (7.92×/1011 μm/mm3 and nanohybrid (7.79×/1011 showed superior WR than microhybrid (1.113×/1017. There was no significant difference in compressive stress among the groups. Conclusion: Silorane exhibited less polymerization shrinkage and shrinkage stress compared to methacrylates. Silorane and nanohybrid showed greater WR compared to microhybrid. CS of all groups was similar.

Influence of length-to-diameter ratio on shrinkage of basalt fiber concrete

Science.gov (United States)

Ruijie, MA; Yang, Jiansen; Liu, Yuan; Zheng, Xiaojun

2017-09-01

In order to study the shrinkage performance of basalt concrete, using the shrinkage rate as index, the work not only studied the influence of different length-to-diameter ratio (LDR) on plastic shrinkage and drying shrinkage of basalt fiber concrete, but also analyzed the action mechanism. The results show that when the fiber content is 0.1%, the LDR of 800 and 1200 take better effects on reducing plastic shrinkage, however the fiber content is 0.3%, that of LDR 600 is better. To improve drying shrinkage, the fiber of LDR 800 takes best effect. In the concrete structure, the adding basalt fibers form a uniform and chaotic supporting system, optimize the pore and the void structure of concrete, make the material further compacted, reduce the water loss, so as to decrease the shrinkage of concrete effectively.

Volumetric polymerization shrinkage of contemporary composite resins

OpenAIRE

Nagem Filho, Halim; Nagem, Haline Drumond; Francisconi, Paulo Afonso Silveira; Franco, Eduardo Batista; Mondelli, Rafael Francisco Lia; Coutinho, Kennedy Queiroz

2007-01-01

The polymerization shrinkage of composite resins may affect negatively the clinical outcome of the restoration. Extensive research has been carried out to develop new formulations of composite resins in order to provide good handling characteristics and some dimensional stability during polymerization. The purpose of this study was to analyze, in vitro, the magnitude of the volumetric polymerization shrinkage of 7 contemporary composite resins (Definite, Suprafill, SureFil, Filtek Z250, Fill ...

Shrinkage Module of Soil Samples with Different Cement Content

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Mohannad Sabry

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The differences in soil's body mass during shrinkage over time have changes in soil physical properties which provide an important reason to check the design of underground foundations in expansive soils. In this paper, a state-of-art of the soil heat stress-strain relationship prediction methods is checked using soil engineering laboratory experiments and Matlab R2013b numerical modelling. The shrinkage of soils with different cement content of (0%, 2%, 4%, 6% and 8% with the same water content of 20 percent in room temperature for 24 hours, are critically reviewed in terms of their predictive shrinkage along with their strengths and flexural behaviour. The review highlights the prediction methods present to determine the effect of heat stress on the shrinkage of soil samples with different cement content after classifying the soils into clay, silt and sand depending on their particle size using sieve and hydrometer experiments. The results of the soil engineering laboratory experiments showed that as the cement content increases, the shrinkage of soil decreases as a result of increased elasticity in soil. The numerical analysis using finite element method in Matlab R2013b shows that as the cement content increases the displacement in the soil sample decreases and that the soil sample with 8% cement content has more resistance to shrinkage and less displacement than the soil with 6% cement, which has less resistance to heat stresses and more displacement.

Creep and shrinkage analysis for concrete spent fuel dry storage module

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, D. [Atomic Energy of Canada Limited, Chalk River, Ontario (Canada)], E-mail: zhangd@aecl.ca

2009-07-01

CANDU reactors are designed in Canada and are built and operated worldwide to produce electricity economically with no emission of green house gases. This paper presents creep and shrinkage analysis for a concrete spent fuel dry storage module of a CANDU nuclear power plant. Creep and shrinkage analysis was performed using a method outlined in American Concrete Institute (ACI) code, and then the creep and shrinkage strains were analyzed in a finite element model to obtain the structural behavior of the concrete module. This demonstrated that the creep and shrinkage analysis for concrete spent fuel dry storage is reasonable. AECL's spent fuel dry storage module is adequate to resist the time-dependent effects due to creep and shrinkage of concrete. (author)

Creep and shrinkage analysis for concrete spent fuel dry storage module

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, D.

2009-01-01

CANDU reactors are designed in Canada and are built and operated worldwide to produce electricity economically with no emission of green house gases. This paper presents creep and shrinkage analysis for a concrete spent fuel dry storage module of a CANDU nuclear power plant. Creep and shrinkage analysis was performed using a method outlined in American Concrete Institute (ACI) code, and then the creep and shrinkage strains were analyzed in a finite element model to obtain the structural behavior of the concrete module. This demonstrated that the creep and shrinkage analysis for concrete spent fuel dry storage is reasonable. AECL's spent fuel dry storage module is adequate to resist the time-dependent effects due to creep and shrinkage of concrete. (author)

Measuring method for heat-shrinkage of fuel pellet

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Komono, Akira; Ishizaki, Jin; Inaki, Kiyohiro.

1997-01-01

The present invention concerns a method of determining an amount of heat-shrinkage of UR 2 pellets containing gadolinium oxide (Gd 2 O 2 ) based on the difference of the density thereof before and after heating. In a heat shrinkage test of UO 2 pellets containing from 1.0 to 15.0% by weight of gadolinium oxide, the amount of heat-shrinkage is measured under the condition of heat-retaining temperature: from 1700 to 1750degC, temperature elevation time and lowering time: from 90 to 120mins, heat-retaining time: 24hours, inert gas atmosphere, gas pressure: 0.35kg/cm 2 and gas dew point: from -55 to 40degC without changing O/M. This invention has a feature in the use of the inert gas and the elevation of the dew point of the gas. Then, oxygen dissociation phenomenon from crystal lattices of the fuel pellets is suppressed, and normal densification value is shown. Then, fuel pellets of good quality with less fluctuation of the heat-shrinkage can be obtained. (N.H.)

Linear Shrinkage Behaviour of Compacted Loam Masonry Blocks

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NAWAB ALI LAKHO

2017-04-01

Full Text Available Walls of wet loam, used in earthen houses, generally experience more shrinkage which results in cracks and less compressive strength. This paper presents a technique of producing loam masonry blocks that are compacted in drained state during casting process in order to minimize shrinkage. For this purpose, loam masonry blocks were cast and compacted at a pressure of 6 MPa and then dried in shade by covering them in plastic sheet. The results show that linear shrinkage of 2% occurred which is smaller when compared to un-compacted wet loam walls. This implies that the loam masonry blocks compacted in drained state is expected to perform better than un-compacted wet loam walls.

Shrinkage measurement for holographic recording materials

Science.gov (United States)

Fernández, R.; Gallego, S.; Márquez, A.; Francés, J.; Navarro Fuster, V.; Neipp, C.; Ortuño, M.; Beléndez, A.; Pascual, I.

2017-05-01

There is an increasing demand for new holographic recording materials. One of them are photopolymers, which are becoming a classic media in this field. Their versatility is well known and new possibilities are being created by including new components, such as nanoparticles or dispersed liquid crystal molecules in classical formulations, making them interesting for additional applications in which the thin film preparation and the structural modification have a fundamental importance. Prior to obtaining a wide commercialization of displays based on photopolymers, one of the key aspects is to achieve a complete characterization of them. In this sense, one of the main parameters to estimate and control is the shrinkage of these materials. The volume variations change the angular response of the hologram in two aspects, the angular selectivity and the maximum diffraction efficiency. One criteria for the recording material to be used in a holographic data storage application is the shrinkage, maximum of 0.5%. Along this work, we compare two different methods to measure the holographic recording material shrinkage. The first one is measuring the angle of propagation for both diffracted orders +/-1 when slanted gratings are recorded, so that an accurate value of the grating vector can be calculated. The second one is based on interference measurements at zero spatial frequency limit. We calculate the shrinkage for three different photopolymers: a polyvinyl alcohol acrylamide (PVA/AA) based photopolymer, one of the greenest photopolymers whose patent belongs to the Alicante University called Biophotopol and on the last place a holographic-dispersed liquid crystal photopolymer (H-PDLC).

Evaluating Spatial Variability in Sediment and Phosphorus Concentration-Discharge Relationships Using Bayesian Inference and Self-Organizing Maps

Science.gov (United States)

Underwood, Kristen L.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Schroth, Andrew W.; Dewoolkar, Mandar M.

2017-12-01

Given the variable biogeochemical, physical, and hydrological processes driving fluvial sediment and nutrient export, the water science and management communities need data-driven methods to identify regions prone to production and transport under variable hydrometeorological conditions. We use Bayesian analysis to segment concentration-discharge linear regression models for total suspended solids (TSS) and particulate and dissolved phosphorus (PP, DP) using 22 years of monitoring data from 18 Lake Champlain watersheds. Bayesian inference was leveraged to estimate segmented regression model parameters and identify threshold position. The identified threshold positions demonstrated a considerable range below and above the median discharge—which has been used previously as the default breakpoint in segmented regression models to discern differences between pre and post-threshold export regimes. We then applied a Self-Organizing Map (SOM), which partitioned the watersheds into clusters of TSS, PP, and DP export regimes using watershed characteristics, as well as Bayesian regression intercepts and slopes. A SOM defined two clusters of high-flux basins, one where PP flux was predominantly episodic and hydrologically driven; and another in which the sediment and nutrient sourcing and mobilization were more bimodal, resulting from both hydrologic processes at post-threshold discharges and reactive processes (e.g., nutrient cycling or lateral/vertical exchanges of fine sediment) at prethreshold discharges. A separate DP SOM defined two high-flux clusters exhibiting a bimodal concentration-discharge response, but driven by differing land use. Our novel framework shows promise as a tool with broad management application that provides insights into landscape drivers of riverine solute and sediment export.

Effect of shrinkage porosity on mechanical properties of ferritic ductile iron

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Wang Zehua

2013-05-01

Full Text Available Casting defects could largely affect the mechanical properties of casting products. A number of test pieces made of ductile iron (EN-GJS-400-18-LT with different levels of shrinkage porosity were prepared and then tensile and fatigue tests were performed to investigate the impact of shrinkage porosity on their mechanical properties. The results showed that the tensile strength decreases linearly with increasing of the shrinkage porosity. The tensile elongation decreases sharply with the increase of the shrinkage porosity mainly due to the non-uniform plastic deformation. The fatigue life also dramatically declines with increasing of the porosity and follows a power law relationship with the area percentage of porosity. The existence of the shrinkage porosity made the fatigue fracture complex. The shrinkage pores, especially those close to the surface usually became the crack initiation sites. For test pieces with less porosity, the fatigue fracture was clearly composed of crack initiation, propagation, and overloading. While for samples with high level of porosity, multiple crack initiation sites were observed.

Effect of temperature and humidity on post-gel shrinkage, cusp deformation, bond strength and shrinkage stress - Construction of a chamber to simulate the oral environment.

Science.gov (United States)

Bicalho, Aline Aredes; de Souza, Silas Júnior Boaventura; de Rosatto, Camila Maria Peres; Tantbirojn, Daranee; Versluis, Antheunis; Soares, Carlos José

2015-12-01

Evaluate the effect of environment on post-gel shrinkage (Shr), cuspal strains (CS), microtensile bond strength (μTBS), elastic modulus (E) and shrinkage stress in molars with large class II restorations. Sixty human molars received standardized Class II mesio-oclusal-distal cavity preparations. Restorations were made with two composites (CHA, Charisma Diamond, Heraus Kulzer and IPS Empress Direct, Ivoclar-Vivadent) using three environment conditions (22°C/50% humidity, 37°C/50% humidity and 37°C/90% humidity) simulated in custom developed chamber. Shr was measured using the strain gauge technique (n=10). CS was measured using strain gauges. Half of the teeth (n=5) were used to assess the elastic modulus (E) and Knoop hardness (KHN) at different depths using microhardness indentation. The other half (n=5) was used to measure the μTBS. The composites and environment conditions were simulated in a two-dimensional finite element analysis of a tooth restoration. Polymerization shrinkage was modeled using Shr data. The Shr, CS, μTBS, KHN and E data were statistically analyzed using two-way ANOVA and Tukey test (significance level: 0.05). Both composites had similar Shr, CS, μTBS and shrinkage stress. CHA had higher elastic modulus than IPS. Increasing temperature and humidity significantly increased Shr, CS and shrinkage stress. μTBS were similar for groups with lower humidity, irrespective of temperature, and higher with higher humidity. E and KHN were constant through the depth for CHA. E and KHN values were affected by environment only for IPS, mainly deeper in the cavity. Shrinkage stress at dentin/composite interface had high inverse correlation with μTBS. Shrinkage stress in enamel had high correlation with CS. Increasing temperature and humidity caused higher post-gel shrinkage and cusp deformation with higher shrinkage stresses in the tooth structure and tooth/restoration interface for both composites tested. The chamber developed for simulating the

Detecting coevolving amino acid sites using Bayesian mutational mapping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dimmic, Matthew W.; Hubisz, Melissa J.; Bustamente, Carlos D.

2005-01-01

Motivation: The evolution of protein sequences is constrained by complex interactions between amino acid residues. Because harmful substitutions may be compensated for by other substitutions at neighboring sites, residues can coevolve. We describe a Bayesian phylogenetic approach to the detection...

Creep and Shrinkage of High Strength Concretes: an Experimental Analysis

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Berenice Martins Toralles carbonari

2002-01-01

Full Text Available The creep and shrinkage behaviour of high strength silica fume concretes is significantly different from that of conventional concretes. In order to represent the proper time-dependent response of the material in structural analysis and design, these aspects should be adequately quantified. This paper discusses an experimental setup that is able to determine the creep and shrinkage of concrete from the time of placing. It also compares different gages that can be used for measuring the strains. The method is applied to five different concretes in the laboratory under controlled environmental conditions. The phenomena that are quantified can be classified as basic shrinkage, drying shrinkage, basic creep and drying creep. The relative importance of these mechanisms in high strength concrete will also be presented.

Comparison of shrinkage related properties of various patch repair materials

Science.gov (United States)

Kristiawan, S. A.; Fitrianto, R. S.

2017-02-01

A patch repair material has been developed in the form of unsaturated polyester resin (UPR)-mortar. The performance and durability of this material are governed by its compatibility with the concrete being repaired. One of the compatibility issue that should be tackled is the dimensional compatibility as a result of differential shrinkage between the repair material and the concrete substrate. This research aims to evaluate such shrinkage related properties of UPR-mortar and to compare with those of other patch repair materials. The investigation includes the following aspects: free shrinkage, resistance to delamination and cracking. The results indicate that UPR-mortar poses a lower free shrinkage, lower risk of both delamination and cracking tendency in comparison to other repair materials.

Geosynthetic clay liners shrinkage under simulated daily thermal cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

Sarabadani, Hamid; Rayhani, Mohammad T

2014-06-01

Geosynthetic clay liners are used as part of composite liner systems in municipal solid waste landfills and other applications to restrict the escape of contaminants into the surrounding environment. This is attainable provided that the geosynthetic clay liner panels continuously cover the subsoil. Previous case histories, however, have shown that some geosynthetic clay liner panels are prone to significant shrinkage and separation when an overlying geomembrane is exposed to solar radiation. Experimental models were initiated to evaluate the potential shrinkage of different geosynthetic clay liner products placed over sand and clay subsoils, subjected to simulated daily thermal cycles (60°C for 8 hours and 22°C for 16 hours) modelling field conditions in which the liner is exposed to solar radiation. The variation of geosynthetic clay liner shrinkage was evaluated at specified times by a photogrammetry technique. The manufacturing techniques, the initial moisture content, and the aspect ratio (ratio of length to width) of the geosynthetic clay liner were found to considerably affect the shrinkage of geosynthetic clay liners. The particle size distribution of the subsoil and the associated suction at the geosynthetic clay liner-subsoil interface was also found to have significant effects on the shrinkage of the geosynthetic clay liner. © The Author(s) 2014.

Restrained Shrinkage Cracking of Fiber-Reinforced High-Strength Concrete

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Ashkan Saradar

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Concrete shrinkage and volume reduction happens due to the loss of moisture, which eventually results in cracks and more concrete deformation. In this study, the effect of polypropylene (PP, steel, glass, basalt, and polyolefin fibers on compressive and flexural strength, drying shrinkage, and cracking potential, using the ring test at early ages of high-strength concrete mixtures, was investigated. The restrained shrinkage test was performed on concrete ring specimens according to the ASTM C1581 standard. The crack width and age of restrained shrinkage cracking were the main parameters studied in this research. The results indicated that the addition of fiber increases the compressive strength by 16%, 20%, and 3% at the age of 3, 7, and 28 days, respectively, and increases the flexural toughness index up to 7.7 times. Steel and glass fibers had a better performance in flexural strength, but relatively poor action in the velocity reduction and cracking time of the restrained shrinkage. Additionally, cracks in all concrete ring specimens except for the polypropylene-containing mixture, was developed to a full depth crack. The mixture with polypropylene fiber indicated a reduction in crack width up to 62% and an increasing age cracking up to 84%.

Mapping shape to visuomotor mapping: learning and generalisation of sensorimotor behaviour based on contextual information.

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Loes C J van Dam

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Humans can learn and store multiple visuomotor mappings (dual-adaptation when feedback for each is provided alternately. Moreover, learned context cues associated with each mapping can be used to switch between the stored mappings. However, little is known about the associative learning between cue and required visuomotor mapping, and how learning generalises to novel but similar conditions. To investigate these questions, participants performed a rapid target-pointing task while we manipulated the offset between visual feedback and movement end-points. The visual feedback was presented with horizontal offsets of different amounts, dependent on the targets shape. Participants thus needed to use different visuomotor mappings between target location and required motor response depending on the target shape in order to "hit" it. The target shapes were taken from a continuous set of shapes, morphed between spiky and circular shapes. After training we tested participants performance, without feedback, on different target shapes that had not been learned previously. We compared two hypotheses. First, we hypothesised that participants could (explicitly extract the linear relationship between target shape and visuomotor mapping and generalise accordingly. Second, using previous findings of visuomotor learning, we developed a (implicit Bayesian learning model that predicts generalisation that is more consistent with categorisation (i.e. use one mapping or the other. The experimental results show that, although learning the associations requires explicit awareness of the cues' role, participants apply the mapping corresponding to the trained shape that is most similar to the current one, consistent with the Bayesian learning model. Furthermore, the Bayesian learning model predicts that learning should slow down with increased numbers of training pairs, which was confirmed by the present results. In short, we found a good correspondence between the

Shrinkage deformation of cement foam concrete

Science.gov (United States)

Kudyakov, A. I.; Steshenko, A. B.

2015-01-01

The article presents the results of research of dispersion-reinforced cement foam concrete with chrysotile asbestos fibers. The goal was to study the patterns of influence of chrysotile asbestos fibers on drying shrinkage deformation of cement foam concrete of natural hardening. The chrysotile asbestos fiber contains cylindrical fiber shaped particles with a diameter of 0.55 micron to 8 microns, which are composed of nanostructures of the same form with diameters up to 55 nm and length up to 22 microns. Taking into account the wall thickness, effective reinforcement can be achieved only by microtube foam materials, the so- called carbon nanotubes, the dimensions of which are of power less that the wall pore diameter. The presence of not reinforced foam concrete pores with perforated walls causes a decrease in its strength, decreases the mechanical properties of the investigated material and increases its shrinkage. The microstructure investigation results have shown that introduction of chrysotile asbestos fibers in an amount of 2 % by weight of cement provides the finely porous foam concrete structure with more uniform size closed pores, which are uniformly distributed over the volume. This reduces the shrinkage deformation of foam concrete by 50%.

Bayesian component separation: The Planck experience

Science.gov (United States)

Wehus, Ingunn Kathrine; Eriksen, Hans Kristian

2018-05-01

Bayesian component separation techniques have played a central role in the data reduction process of Planck. The most important strength of this approach is its global nature, in which a parametric and physical model is fitted to the data. Such physical modeling allows the user to constrain very general data models, and jointly probe cosmological, astrophysical and instrumental parameters. This approach also supports statistically robust goodness-of-fit tests in terms of data-minus-model residual maps, which are essential for identifying residual systematic effects in the data. The main challenges are high code complexity and computational cost. Whether or not these costs are justified for a given experiment depends on its final uncertainty budget. We therefore predict that the importance of Bayesian component separation techniques is likely to increase with time for intensity mapping experiments, similar to what has happened in the CMB field, as observational techniques mature, and their overall sensitivity improves.

Estimation of the profile of cross-machine shrinkage of paper

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

I'Anson, S J; Sampson, W W; Constantino, R P A; Hoole, S M

2008-01-01

In common with many other materials, paper tends to shrink as it dries. Although every attempt is made to restrain paper, some shrinkage occurs on all paper machines in the direction perpendicular to that of manufacture and this shrinkage is always much higher at the edges of the machine than in the centre. Measurement of the profile of this cross-machine shrinkage is possible using the fast Fourier transform to locate and measure periodic elements imprinted by the filtration fabrics used during the formation of the paper web. This paper describes a new method which allows the geometrical relationships within the fabric to be used along with dimensional changes to estimate shrinkage. The method has the advantages over previous methods of more tolerant sampling protocols, operator independent analysis and improved accuracy

Spatial analysis and risk mapping of soil-transmitted helminth infections in Brazil, using Bayesian geostatistical models.

Science.gov (United States)

Scholte, Ronaldo G C; Schur, Nadine; Bavia, Maria E; Carvalho, Edgar M; Chammartin, Frédérique; Utzinger, Jürg; Vounatsou, Penelope

2013-11-01

Soil-transmitted helminths (Ascaris lumbricoides, Trichuris trichiura and hookworm) negatively impact the health and wellbeing of hundreds of millions of people, particularly in tropical and subtropical countries, including Brazil. Reliable maps of the spatial distribution and estimates of the number of infected people are required for the control and eventual elimination of soil-transmitted helminthiasis. We used advanced Bayesian geostatistical modelling, coupled with geographical information systems and remote sensing to visualize the distribution of the three soil-transmitted helminth species in Brazil. Remotely sensed climatic and environmental data, along with socioeconomic variables from readily available databases were employed as predictors. Our models provided mean prevalence estimates for A. lumbricoides, T. trichiura and hookworm of 15.6%, 10.1% and 2.5%, respectively. By considering infection risk and population numbers at the unit of the municipality, we estimate that 29.7 million Brazilians are infected with A. lumbricoides, 19.2 million with T. trichiura and 4.7 million with hookworm. Our model-based maps identified important risk factors related to the transmission of soiltransmitted helminths and confirm that environmental variables are closely associated with indices of poverty. Our smoothed risk maps, including uncertainty, highlight areas where soil-transmitted helminthiasis control interventions are most urgently required, namely in the North and along most of the coastal areas of Brazil. We believe that our predictive risk maps are useful for disease control managers for prioritising control interventions and for providing a tool for more efficient surveillance-response mechanisms.

Shrinkage calibration method for μPIM manufactured parts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Quagliotti, Danilo; Tosello, Guido; Salaga, J.

2016-01-01

Five green and five sintered parts of a micro mechanical component, produced by micro powder injection moulding, were measured using an optical coordinate measuring machine. The aim was to establish a method for quality assurance of the final produced parts. Initially, the so called “green” parts...... were compared with the sintered parts (final products) calculating the percentage of shrinkage after sintering. Successively, the expanded uncertainty of the measured dimensions were evaluated for each single part as well as for the overall parts. Finally, the estimated uncertainty for the shrinkage...... was evaluated propagating the expanded uncertainty previously stated and considering green and sintered parts correlated. Results showed that the proposed method can be effective instating tolerances if it is assumed that the variability on the dimensions induced by the shrinkage equals the propagated expanded...

A Bayesian Hierarchical Model for Relating Multiple SNPs within Multiple Genes to Disease Risk

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Lewei Duan

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A variety of methods have been proposed for studying the association of multiple genes thought to be involved in a common pathway for a particular disease. Here, we present an extension of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling strategy that allows for multiple SNPs within each gene, with external prior information at either the SNP or gene level. The model involves variable selection at the SNP level through latent indicator variables and Bayesian shrinkage at the gene level towards a prior mean vector and covariance matrix that depend on external information. The entire model is fitted using Markov chain Monte Carlo methods. Simulation studies show that the approach is capable of recovering many of the truly causal SNPs and genes, depending upon their frequency and size of their effects. The method is applied to data on 504 SNPs in 38 candidate genes involved in DNA damage response in the WECARE study of second breast cancers in relation to radiotherapy exposure.

Development and Performance Assessment of the High-Performance Shrinkage Reducing Agent for Concrete

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Hyung Sub Han

2016-01-01

Full Text Available To develop a high-performance shrinkage reducing agent, this study investigated several shrinkage reducing materials and supplements for those materials. Fluidity and air content were satisfactory for the various shrinkage reducing materials. The decrease in viscosity was the lowest for glycol-based materials. The decrease in drying shrinkage was most prominent for mixtures containing glycol-based materials. In particular, mixtures containing G2 achieved a 40% decrease in the amount of drying shrinkage. Most shrinkage reducing materials had weaker level of compressive strength than that of the plain mixture. When 3% triethanolamine was used for early strength improvement, the strength was enhanced by 158% compared to that of the plain mixture on day 1; enhancement values were 135% on day 7 and 113% on day 28. To assess the performance of the developed high-performance shrinkage reducing agent and to determine the optimal amount, 2.0% shrinkage reducing agent was set as 40% of the value of the plain mixture. While the effect was more prominent at higher amounts, to prevent deterioration of the compressive strength and the other physical properties, the recommended amount is less than 2.0%.

Polymerization shrinkage stress of composite resins and resin cements - What do we need to know?

Science.gov (United States)

Soares, Carlos José; Faria-E-Silva, André Luis; Rodrigues, Monise de Paula; Vilela, Andomar Bruno Fernandes; Pfeifer, Carmem Silvia; Tantbirojn, Daranee; Versluis, Antheunis

2017-08-28

Polymerization shrinkage stress of resin-based materials have been related to several unwanted clinical consequences, such as enamel crack propagation, cusp deflection, marginal and internal gaps, and decreased bond strength. Despite the absence of strong evidence relating polymerization shrinkage to secondary caries or fracture of posterior teeth, shrinkage stress has been associated with post-operative sensitivity and marginal stain. The latter is often erroneously used as a criterion for replacement of composite restorations. Therefore, an indirect correlation can emerge between shrinkage stress and the longevity of composite restorations or resin-bonded ceramic restorations. The relationship between shrinkage and stress can be best studied in laboratory experiments and a combination of various methodologies. The objective of this review article is to discuss the concept and consequences of polymerization shrinkage and shrinkage stress of composite resins and resin cements. Literature relating to polymerization shrinkage and shrinkage stress generation, research methodologies, and contributing factors are selected and reviewed. Clinical techniques that could reduce shrinkage stress and new developments on low-shrink dental materials are also discussed.

Characterisation of tissue shrinkage during microwave thermal ablation.

Science.gov (United States)

Farina, Laura; Weiss, Noam; Nissenbaum, Yitzhak; Cavagnaro, Marta; Lopresto, Vanni; Pinto, Rosanna; Tosoratti, Nevio; Amabile, Claudio; Cassarino, Simone; Goldberg, S Nahum

2014-11-01

The aim of this study was to characterise changes in tissue volume during image-guided microwave ablation in order to arrive at a more precise determination of the true ablation zone. The effect of power (20-80 W) and time (1-10 min) on microwave-induced tissue contraction was experimentally evaluated in various-sized cubes of ex vivo liver (10-40 mm ± 2 mm) and muscle (20 and 40 mm ± 2 mm) embedded in agar phantoms (N = 119). Post-ablation linear and volumetric dimensions of the tissue cubes were measured and compared with pre-ablation dimensions. Subsequently, the process of tissue contraction was investigated dynamically during the ablation procedure through real-time X-ray CT scanning. Overall, substantial shrinkage of 52-74% of initial tissue volume was noted. The shrinkage was non-uniform over time and space, with observed asymmetry favouring the radial (23-43 % range) over the longitudinal (21-29%) direction. Algorithmic relationships for the shrinkage as a function of time were demonstrated. Furthermore, the smallest cubes showed more substantial and faster contraction (28-40% after 1 min), with more considerable volumetric shrinkage (>10%) in muscle than in liver tissue. Additionally, CT imaging demonstrated initial expansion of the tissue volume, lasting in some cases up to 3 min during the microwave ablation procedure, prior to the contraction phenomenon. In addition to an asymmetric substantial shrinkage of the ablated tissue volume, an initial expansion phenomenon occurs during MW ablation. Thus, complex modifications of the tissue close to a radiating antenna will likely need to be taken into account for future methods of real-time ablation monitoring.

Time-Dependent Behavior of Shrinkage Strain for Early Age Concrete Affected by Temperature Variation

OpenAIRE

Qin, Yu; Yi, Zhijian; Wang, Weina; Wang, Di

2017-01-01

Shrinkage has been proven to be an important property of early age concrete. The shrinkage strain leads to inherent engineering problems, such as cracking and loss of prestress. Atmospheric temperature is an important factor in shrinkage strain. However, current research does not provide much attention to the effect of atmospheric temperature on shrinkage of early age concrete. In this paper, a laboratory study was undertaken to present the time-dependent shrinkage of early age concrete under...

Effect of the key mixture parameters on shrinkage of reactive powder concrete.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Shamsad; Zubair, Ahmed; Maslehuddin, Mohammed

2014-01-01

Reactive powder concrete (RPC) mixtures are reported to have excellent mechanical and durability characteristics. However, such concrete mixtures having high amount of cementitious materials may have high early shrinkage causing cracking of concrete. In the present work, an attempt has been made to study the simultaneous effects of three key mixture parameters on shrinkage of the RPC mixtures. Considering three different levels of the three key mixture factors, a total of 27 mixtures of RPC were prepared according to 3(3) factorial experiment design. The specimens belonging to all 27 mixtures were monitored for shrinkage at different ages over a total period of 90 days. The test results were plotted to observe the variation of shrinkage with time and to see the effects of the key mixture factors. The experimental data pertaining to 90-day shrinkage were used to conduct analysis of variance to identify significance of each factor and to obtain an empirical equation correlating the shrinkage of RPC with the three key mixture factors. The rate of development of shrinkage at early ages was higher. The water to binder ratio was found to be the most prominent factor followed by cement content with the least effect of silica fume content.

Bayesian geostatistical modeling of leishmaniasis incidence in Brazil.

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Dimitrios-Alexios Karagiannis-Voules

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Leishmaniasis is endemic in 98 countries with an estimated 350 million people at risk and approximately 2 million cases annually. Brazil is one of the most severely affected countries. METHODOLOGY: We applied Bayesian geostatistical negative binomial models to analyze reported incidence data of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis in Brazil covering a 10-year period (2001-2010. Particular emphasis was placed on spatial and temporal patterns. The models were fitted using integrated nested Laplace approximations to perform fast approximate Bayesian inference. Bayesian variable selection was employed to determine the most important climatic, environmental, and socioeconomic predictors of cutaneous and visceral leishmaniasis. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: For both types of leishmaniasis, precipitation and socioeconomic proxies were identified as important risk factors. The predicted number of cases in 2010 were 30,189 (standard deviation [SD]: 7,676 for cutaneous leishmaniasis and 4,889 (SD: 288 for visceral leishmaniasis. Our risk maps predicted the highest numbers of infected people in the states of Minas Gerais and Pará for visceral and cutaneous leishmaniasis, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Our spatially explicit, high-resolution incidence maps identified priority areas where leishmaniasis control efforts should be targeted with the ultimate goal to reduce disease incidence.

Prevention of shrinkage cracking in tight concrete structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alvaredo, A.M.; Wittmann, F.H.

1995-01-01

It is shown that crack formation and propagation in concrete members subjected to restrained shrinkage can be realistically predicted by means of a comprehensive approach including a diffusion analysis and fracture mechanics considerations. The conditions for stable crack propagation regarding dimensions of the concrete member, degree of restraint to the imposed deformation and material properties are discussed. Guidelines on the prevention of shrinkage cracking of concrete structures are given. (author). 10 refs., 5 figs

Evaluation of shrinkage and cracking in concrete of ring test by acoustic emission method

Science.gov (United States)

Watanabe, Takeshi; Hashimoto, Chikanori

2015-03-01

Drying shrinkage of concrete is one of the typical problems related to reduce durability and defilation of concrete structures. Lime stone, expansive additive and low-heat Portland cement are used to reduce drying shrinkage in Japan. Drying shrinkage is commonly evaluated by methods of measurement for length change of mortar and concrete. In these methods, there is detected strain due to drying shrinkage of free body, although visible cracking does not occur. In this study, the ring test was employed to detect strain and age cracking of concrete. The acoustic emission (AE) method was adopted to detect micro cracking due to shrinkage. It was recognized that in concrete using lime stone, expansive additive and low-heat Portland cement are effective to decrease drying shrinkage and visible cracking. Micro cracking due to shrinkage of this concrete was detected and evaluated by the AE method.

DAFNE: A Matlab toolbox for Bayesian multi-source remote sensing and ancillary data fusion, with application to flood mapping

Science.gov (United States)

D'Addabbo, Annarita; Refice, Alberto; Lovergine, Francesco P.; Pasquariello, Guido

2018-03-01

High-resolution, remotely sensed images of the Earth surface have been proven to be of help in producing detailed flood maps, thanks to their synoptic overview of the flooded area and frequent revisits. However, flood scenarios can be complex situations, requiring the integration of different data in order to provide accurate and robust flood information. Several processing approaches have been recently proposed to efficiently combine and integrate heterogeneous information sources. In this paper, we introduce DAFNE, a Matlab®-based, open source toolbox, conceived to produce flood maps from remotely sensed and other ancillary information, through a data fusion approach. DAFNE is based on Bayesian Networks, and is composed of several independent modules, each one performing a different task. Multi-temporal and multi-sensor data can be easily handled, with the possibility of following the evolution of an event through multi-temporal output flood maps. Each DAFNE module can be easily modified or upgraded to meet different user needs. The DAFNE suite is presented together with an example of its application.

Shrinkage Behaviour of Fibre Reinforced Concrete with Recycled Tyre Polymer Fibres

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marijana Serdar

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Different types of fibres are often used in concrete to prevent microcracking due to shrinkage, and polypropylene fibres are among the most often used ones. If not prevented, microcracks can lead to the development of larger cracks as drying shrinkage occurs, enabling penetration of aggressive substances from the environment and reducing durability of concrete structures. The hypothesis of the present research is that polypropylene fibres, used in concrete for controlling formation of microcracks due to shrinkage, can be replaced with recycled polymer fibres obtained from end-of-life tyres. To test the hypothesis, concrete mixtures containing polypropylene fibres and recycled tyre polymer fibres were prepared and tested. Experimental programme focused on autogenous, free, and restrained shrinkage. It was shown that PP fibres can be substituted with higher amount of recycled tyre polymer fibres obtaining concrete with similar shrinkage behaviour. The results indicate promising possibilities of using recycled tyre polymer fibres in concrete products. At the same time, such applications would contribute to solving the problem of waste tyre disposal.

Hydration of mineral shrinkage-compensating admixture for concrete : an experimental and numerical study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Chen, Wei; Brouwers, H.J.H.

2012-01-01

The use of shrinkage-compensating admixture in concrete has been proven to be an effective way to mitigate the shrinkage of concrete. The hydration of a shrinkage-compensating admixture in cement paste and concrete is investigated in this paper with numerical simulation and experimental study. An

Strength and Drying Shrinkage of Alkali-Activated Slag Paste and Mortar

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Mao-chieh Chi

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to investigate the strengths and drying shrinkage of alkali-activated slag paste and mortar. Compressive strength, tensile strength, and drying shrinkage of alkali-activated slag paste and mortar were measured with various liquid/slag ratios, sand/slag ratios, curing ages, and curing temperatures. Experimental results show that the higher compressive strength and tensile strength have been observed in the higher curing temperature. At the age of 56 days, AAS mortars show higher compressive strength than Portland cement mortars and AAS mortars with liquid/slag ratio of 0.54 have the highest tensile strength in all AAS mortars. In addition, AAS pastes of the drying shrinkage are higher than AAS mortars. Meanwhile, higher drying shrinkage was observed in AAS mortars than that observed comparable Portland cement mortars.

Polymerization shrinkage stress of composite resins and resin cements – What do we need to know?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos José SOARES

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Polymerization shrinkage stress of resin-based materials have been related to several unwanted clinical consequences, such as enamel crack propagation, cusp deflection, marginal and internal gaps, and decreased bond strength. Despite the absence of strong evidence relating polymerization shrinkage to secondary caries or fracture of posterior teeth, shrinkage stress has been associated with post-operative sensitivity and marginal stain. The latter is often erroneously used as a criterion for replacement of composite restorations. Therefore, an indirect correlation can emerge between shrinkage stress and the longevity of composite restorations or resin-bonded ceramic restorations. The relationship between shrinkage and stress can be best studied in laboratory experiments and a combination of various methodologies. The objective of this review article is to discuss the concept and consequences of polymerization shrinkage and shrinkage stress of composite resins and resin cements. Literature relating to polymerization shrinkage and shrinkage stress generation, research methodologies, and contributing factors are selected and reviewed. Clinical techniques that could reduce shrinkage stress and new developments on low-shrink dental materials are also discussed.

Modeling for prediction of restrained shrinkage effect in concrete repair

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuan Yingshu; Li Guo; Cai Yue

2003-01-01

A general model of autogenous shrinkage caused by chemical reaction (chemical shrinkage) is developed by means of Arrhenius' law and a degree of chemical reaction. Models of tensile creep and relaxation modulus are built based on a viscoelastic, three-element model. Tests of free shrinkage and tensile creep were carried out to determine some coefficients in the models. Two-dimensional FEM analysis based on the models and other constitutions can predict the development of tensile strength and cracking. Three groups of patch-repaired beams were designed for analysis and testing. The prediction from the analysis shows agreement with the test results. The cracking mechanism after repair is discussed

Minimum mean square error estimation and approximation of the Bayesian update

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar

2015-01-01

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(w), a measurement operator Y (u(q); q), where u(q; w) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(w). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(w) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a functional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We derive linear, quadratic etc approximation of full Bayesian update.

Minimum mean square error estimation and approximation of the Bayesian update

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2015-01-07

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(w), a measurement operator Y (u(q); q), where u(q; w) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(w). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(w) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a functional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We derive linear, quadratic etc approximation of full Bayesian update.

Design changes of device to investigation of alloys linear contraction and shrinkage stresses

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Mutwil

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Some design changes in device elaborated by author to examination of linear contraction and shrinkage stresses progress of metals and alloys during– and after solidification have been described. The introduced changes have been focused on design of closing of shrinkage test rod mould. The introduced changes have been allowed to simplify a mounting procedure of thermocouples measuring a temperature of the shrinkage rod casting (in 6 points. Exemplary investigation results of linear contraction and shrinkage stresses development in Al-Si13.5% alloy have been presented.

Drying Shrinkage of Mortar Incorporating High Volume Oil Palm Biomass Waste

Science.gov (United States)

Shukor Lim, Nor Hasanah Abdul; Samadi, Mostafa; Rahman Mohd. Sam, Abdul; Khalid, Nur Hafizah Abd; Nabilah Sarbini, Noor; Farhayu Ariffin, Nur; Warid Hussin, Mohd; Ismail, Mohammed A.

2018-03-01

This paper studies the drying shrinkage of mortar incorporating oil palm biomass waste including Palm Oil Fuel Ash, Oil Palm Kernel Shell and Oil Palm Fibre. Nano size of palm oil fuel ash was used up to 80 % as cement replacement by weight. The ash has been treated to improve the physical and chemical properties of mortar. The mass ratio of sand to blended ashes was 3:1. The test was carried out using 25 × 25 × 160 mm prism for drying shrinkage tests and 70 × 70 ×70 mm for compressive strength test. The results show that the shrinkage value of biomass mortar is reduced by 31% compared with OPC mortar thus, showing better performance in restraining deformation of the mortar while the compressive strength increased by 24% compared with OPC mortar at later age. The study gives a better understanding of how the biomass waste affect on mortar compressive strength and drying shrinkage behaviour. Overall, the oil palm biomass waste can be used to produce a better performance mortar at later age in terms of compressive strength and drying shrinkage.

Plastic shrinkage of mortars with shrinkage reducing admixture and lightweight aggregates studied by neutron tomography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wyrzykowski, Mateusz; Trtik, Pavel; Münch, Beat; Weiss, Jason; Vontobel, Peter; Lura, Pietro

2015-01-01

Water transport in fresh, highly permeable concrete and rapid water evaporation from the concrete surface during the first few hours after placement are the key parameters influencing plastic shrinkage cracking. In this work, neutron tomography was used to determine both the water loss from the concrete surface due to evaporation and the redistribution of fluid that occurs in fresh mortars exposed to external drying. In addition to the reference mortar with a water to cement ratio (w/c) of 0.30, a mortar with the addition of pre-wetted lightweight aggregates (LWA) and a mortar with a shrinkage reducing admixture (SRA) were tested. The addition of SRA reduced the evaporation rate from the mortar at the initial stages of drying and reduced the total water loss. The pre-wetted LWA released a large part of the absorbed water as a consequence of capillary pressure developing in the fresh mortar due to evaporation

Plastic shrinkage of mortars with shrinkage reducing admixture and lightweight aggregates studied by neutron tomography

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wyrzykowski, Mateusz, E-mail: mateusz.wyrzykowski@empa.ch [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Concrete and Construction Chemistry Laboratory, Dübendorf (Switzerland); Lodz University of Technology, Department of Building Physics and Building Materials, Lodz (Poland); Trtik, Pavel [Paul Scherrer Institute, Laboratory for Neutron Scattering and Imaging, Villigen (Switzerland); Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Concrete and Construction Chemistry Laboratory, Dübendorf (Switzerland); Münch, Beat [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Concrete and Construction Chemistry Laboratory, Dübendorf (Switzerland); Weiss, Jason [Purdue University, School of Civil Engineering, West Lafayette (United States); Vontobel, Peter [Paul Scherrer Institute, Laboratory for Neutron Scattering and Imaging, Villigen (Switzerland); Lura, Pietro [Empa, Swiss Federal Laboratories for Materials Science and Technology, Concrete and Construction Chemistry Laboratory, Dübendorf (Switzerland); ETH Zurich, Institute for Building Materials (IfB), Zurich (Switzerland)

2015-07-15

Water transport in fresh, highly permeable concrete and rapid water evaporation from the concrete surface during the first few hours after placement are the key parameters influencing plastic shrinkage cracking. In this work, neutron tomography was used to determine both the water loss from the concrete surface due to evaporation and the redistribution of fluid that occurs in fresh mortars exposed to external drying. In addition to the reference mortar with a water to cement ratio (w/c) of 0.30, a mortar with the addition of pre-wetted lightweight aggregates (LWA) and a mortar with a shrinkage reducing admixture (SRA) were tested. The addition of SRA reduced the evaporation rate from the mortar at the initial stages of drying and reduced the total water loss. The pre-wetted LWA released a large part of the absorbed water as a consequence of capillary pressure developing in the fresh mortar due to evaporation.

Influence of shrinkage porosity on fatigue performance of iron castings and life estimation method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Liu

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Shrinkage porosity exists more or less in heavy castings, and it plays an important role in the fatigue behavior of cast materials. In this study, fatigue tests were carried out on the QT400-18 cast iron specimens containing random degrees of shrinkage porosity defect. Experimental results showed that the order of magnitude of life scattered from 103 to 106 cycles when the shrinkage percentage ranged from 0.67% to 5.91%. SEM analyses were carried out on the shrinkage porosity region. The inter-granular discontinuous, micro cracks and inclusions interfered with the fatigue sliding or hindering process. The slip in shrinkage porosity region was not as orderly as the ordinary continuous medium. The shrinkage porosity area on fracture surface (SPAFS and alternating stress intensity factor (ASIF were applied to evaluate the tendency of residual life distribution; their relationship was fitted by negative exponent functions. Based on the intermediate variable of ASIF, a fatigue life prediction model of nodular cast iron containing shrinkage porosity defects was established. The modeling prediction was in agreement with the experimental results.

Influence of fly ash fineness on water requirement and shrinkage of blended cement mortars

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Vanissorn Vimonsatit

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, the influence of fly ash fineness on water requirement and shrinkage of blended cement mortar was studied. The results indicate that the water requirement and shrinkage characteristic of the blended cement mortar are dependent on fly ash fineness and replacement level. The use of coarse fly ash slightly reduces the water requirement but greatly reduced the drying and the autogenous shrinkage of the blended cement mortars and the reduction is more with an increase in the fly ash replacement level. The finer fly ashes further reduce the water requirement, but increase the drying and the autogenous shrinkages as compared with coarser fly ash. The incorporation of superplasticizer drastically reduces the water requirement, but the effect on the drying and autogenous shrinkages of the normal Portland cement mortar is small. However, for the fly ash mortar, the use of superplasticizer results in a decrease in drying shrinkage and in a substantial increase in the autogenous shrinkage particularly for the fine fly ash at a high replacement level.

Prediction of shrinkage cracking age of concrete with and without expansive additive

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dung Tien Nguyen

2010-10-01

Full Text Available The aim of this research is to propose a model for predicting cracking age of concrete due to restrained shrinkage. Thisstudy focuses on analyzing shrinkage and expansion mechanisms in the expansive concrete to formulate a model that can beemployed to predict whether shrinkage cracking occurs or not. In case of conventional (non-expansive concrete, this modelcan be applied by neglecting the early expansion due to expansive additive. Parameters considered in this model are restrainedexpansion, free shrinkage, cracking strain that can be experimentally measured by experiment and tensile creep which isderived by back calculation. The model was verified by test results of expansive concrete mixtures as well as normal concretemixtures both with and without fly ash.

Can superabsorbent polymers mitigate shrinkage in cementitious materials blended with supplementary cementitious materials?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Snoeck, Didier; Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; De Belie, Nele

2016-01-01

A promising way to mitigate autogenous shrinkage in cementitious materials with a low water-to-binder ratio is internal curing by the use of superabsorbent polymers. Superabsorbent polymers are able to absorb multiple times their weight in water and can be applied as an internal water reservoir...... to induce internal curing and mitigation of self-desiccation. Their purposefulness has been demonstrated in Portland cement pastes with and without silica fume. Nowadays, fly ash and blast-furnace slag containing binders are also frequently used in the construction industry. The results on autogenous...... shrinkage in materials blended with fly ash or blast-furnace slag remain scarce, especially after one week of age. This paper focuses on the autogenous shrinkage by performing manual and automated shrinkage measurements up to one month of age. Without superabsorbent polymers, autogenous shrinkage...

Effects of Shrinkage Reducing Agent and Expansive Additive on Mortar Properties

OpenAIRE

Treesuwan, Sarapon; Maleesee, Komsan

2017-01-01

This research is to study the effect of mortar mixed with shrinkage reducing agent (polyoxyalkylene alkyl ether type), expansive additive (CaO type), and fly ash (hereinafter “SRA,” “EX,” and “FA,” resp.). Moreover, steam curing was studied to improve the properties of mortar. The plastic shrinkage test was conducted by using the strain gauge embedded at 0.5 cm from the surface according to the ASTM C1579-06 standard within early age followed by the total shrinkage test and compressive streng...

Modeling Restrained Shrinkage Induced Cracking in Concrete Rings Using the Thick Level Set Approach

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Rebecca Nakhoul

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Modeling restrained shrinkage-induced damage and cracking in concrete is addressed herein. The novel Thick Level Set (TLS damage growth and crack propagation model is used and adapted by introducing shrinkage contribution into the formulation. The TLS capacity to predict damage evolution, crack initiation and growth triggered by restrained shrinkage in absence of external loads is evaluated. A study dealing with shrinkage-induced cracking in elliptical concrete rings is presented herein. Key results such as the effect of rings oblateness on stress distribution and critical shrinkage strain needed to initiate damage are highlighted. In addition, crack positions are compared to those observed in experiments and are found satisfactory.

Self-compacting fine-grained concretes with compensated shrinkage

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Alimov Lev

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This paper substantiates the efficiency of application of fine-grained concrete for erection of cast-in-place concrete and reinforced concrete structures of different purpose. On the basis of analysis of experimental research results it was established that the introduction of microfillers with expansion effect to composite binder allows not only improving the rheological properties of fine-grained concrete, but also decreasing of value of shrinkage strain and improving of concrete crack resistance and durability. The analysis of the results of industrial use of fine-grained concretes with compensated shrinkage is given.

Topology optimization of reinforced concrete structures considering control of shrinkage and strength failure

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Luo, Yangjun; Wang, Michael Yu; Zhou, Mingdong

2015-01-01

To take into account the shrinkage effect in the early stage of Reinforced Concrete (RC) design, an effective continuum topology optimization method is presented in this paper. Based on the power-law interpolation, shrinkage of concrete is numerically simulated by introducing an additional design......-dependent force. Under multi-axial stress conditions, the concrete failure surface is well fitted by two Drucker-Prager yield functions. The optimization problem aims at minimizing the cost function under yield strength constraints on concrete elements and a structural shrinkage volume constraint. In conjunction...... to ensure the structural safety under the combined action of external loads and shrinkage....

Investigations of linear contraction and shrinkage stresses development in hypereutectic al-si binary alloys

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Mutwil

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Shrinkage phenomena during solidification and cooling of hypereutectic aluminium-silicon alloys (AlSi18, AlSi21 have been examined. A vertical shrinkage rod casting with circular cross-section (constant or fixed: tapered has been used as a test sample. Two type of experiments have been conducted: 1 on development of the test sample linear dimension changes (linear expansion/contraction, 2 on development of shrinkage stresses in the test sample. By the linear contraction experiments the linear dimension changes of the test sample and the metal test mould as well a temperature in six points of the test sample have been registered. By shrinkage stresses examination a shrinkage tension force and linear dimension changes of the test sample as well a temperature in three points of the test sample have been registered. Registered time dependences of the test bar and the test mould linear dimension changes have shown, that so-called pre-shrinkage extension has been mainly by mould thermal extension caused. The investigation results have shown that both: the linear contraction as well as the shrinkage stresses development are evident dependent on metal temperature in a warmest region the sample (thermal centre.

Effects of drying conditions, admixtures and specimen size on shrinkage strains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Al-Saleh, Saleh A.; Al-Zaid, Rajeh Z.

2006-01-01

The paper presents the results of an experimental investigation on the effects of drying conditions, specimen size and presence of plasticizing admixture on the development of shrinkage strains. The measurements are taken in a harsh (50 deg. C and 5% R.H.) and a moderate environment (28 deg. C and 50% R.H.). The results include strain development at various levels of cross sections of concrete prisms. The drying conditions are found to be the dominant parameter affecting the shrinkage strain development particularly in specimens of smaller sizes. The effect of plasticizing admixture on shrinkage strains is negligible

An Experimental Study on Shrinkage Strains of Normal-and High-Strength Concrete-Filled Frp Tubes

Science.gov (United States)

Vincent, Thomas; Ozbakkaloglu, Togay

2017-09-01

It is now well established that concrete-filled fiber reinforced polymer (FRP) tubes (CFFTs) are an attractive construction technique for new columns, however studies examining concrete shrinkage in CFFTs remain limited. Concrete shrinkage may pose a concern for CFFTs, as in these members the curing of concrete takes place inside the FRP tube. This paper reports the findings from an experimental study on concrete shrinkage strain measurements for CFFTs manufactured with normal- and high-strength concrete (NSC and HSC). A total of 6 aramid FRP (AFRP)-confined concrete specimens with circular cross-sections were manufactured, with 3 specimens each manufactured using NSC and HSC. The specimens were instrumented with surface and embedded strain gauges to monitor shrinkage development of exposed concrete and concrete sealed inside the CFFTs, respectively. All specimens were cylinders with a 152 mm diameter and 305 mm height, and their unconfined concrete strengths were 44.8 or 83.2 MPa. Analysis of the shrinkage measurements from concrete sealed inside the CFFTs revealed that embedment depth and concrete compressive strength only had minor influences on recorded shrinkage strains. However, an analysis of shrinkage measurements from the exposed concrete surface revealed that higher amounts of shrinkage can occur in HSC. Finally, it was observed that shrinkage strains are significantly higher for concrete exposed at the surface compared to concrete sealed inside the CFFTs.

Shrinkage stress in concrete under dry-wet cycles: an example with concrete column

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Yuan; Zhang, Jun; Luosun, Yiming

2014-02-01

This paper focuses on the simulation of shrinkage stress in concrete structures under dry-wet environments. In the modeling, an integrative model for autogenous and drying shrinkage predictions of concrete under dry-wet cycles is introduced first. Second, a model taking both cement hydration and moisture diffusion into account synchronously is used to calculate the distribution of interior humidity in concrete. Using the above two models, the distributions of shrinkage strain and stress in concrete columns made by normal and high strength concrete respectively under dry-wet cycles are calculated. The model results show that shrinkage gradient along the radial direction of the column from the center to outer surface increases with age as the outer circumference suffers to dry. The maximum and minimum shrinkage occur at the outer surface and the center of the column, respectively, under drying condition. As wetting starts, the shrinkage strain decreases with increase of interior humidity. The closer to the wetting face, the higher the humidity and the lower the shrinkage strain, as well as the lower the shrinkage stress. As results of the dry-wet cycles acting on the outer circumference of the column, cyclic stress status is developed within the area close to the outer surface of the column. The depth of the influencing zone of dry-wet cyclic action is influenced by concrete strength and dry-wet regime. For low strength concrete, relatively deeper influencing zone is expected compared with that of high strength concrete. The models are verified by concrete-steel composite ring tests and a good agreement between model and test results is found.

The effect of fibers on the loss of water by evaporation and shrinkage of concrete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. M. P. Pillar

Full Text Available Shrinkage is one of the least desirable attributes in concrete. Large areas of exposed concrete surfaces , such as in shotcrete tunnel linings, where it is practically impossible to make a moist cure, are highly susceptible to plastic shrinkage at early ages. The autogenous and drying shrinkage can lead to states of greater than threshold strength, causing fracture, mechanical damage and lack of durability of concrete structures. The addition of fibers can greatly reduce plastic shrinkage, but has limited effect in mitigating autogenous and drying shrinkage. To evaluate the performance of polypropylene and steel fibers to understand their effect on shrinkage of concrete, a study was carried out to relate the loss of water from the paste and the shrinkage during the first 28 days of age, and compare it with a control mix without fiber. The loss of water was obtained by the weight loss of the specimens at different ages, since the only component that could contribute for the loss of weight was the water lost by the paste of the concrete. And the paste itself is the only source of shrinkage. Uniaxial compressive tests from very early ages enabled the determination of time when plastic shrinkage ended. It was observed that the control concrete mix lost three times more water and developed plastic and drying shrinkage 60 % higher than the fiber reinforced concrete mixes. It was possible to demonstrate that the reduced loss of water caused by the incorporation of fibers is related to the mitigation of plastic shrinkage. It was observed that the fibers are effective to restrain the movement of water through the cement paste in the plastic state, however such effect is limited after concrete starts the hardening state.

Digital image analysis of radial shrinkage of fresh spruce (Picea abies L.) wood.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansmann, Christian; Konnerth, Johannes; Rosner, Sabine

2011-03-21

Contact-free digital image analysis was performed of the radial shrinkage of fresh, fully saturated small spruce wood beams. An experimental test set-up was developed to ensure constant distance from the charge-coupled device camera to the sample surface as well as constant climate and light conditions during the whole experiment. Dimensional changes were observed immediately after the drying process began. An unexpected distinct effect could be observed which could not be explained by drying surface layers only. After a fast initial radial shrinkage a slowing down of the dimensional changes occurred at high mean moisture contents. A complete interruption of any dimensional changes followed. Finally, a recovery from shrinkage was even observed. It is assumed that strong negative pressure occurred in the fully saturated capillaries owing to dehydration which led to additional dimensional changes. As a consequence, the break of the water column and aeration in these capillaries finally resulted in a recovery period in the shrinkage rate due to the pressure release. After this effect, the dehydration was characterized by a phase of fast and almost linear shrinkage due to drying surface layers. Finally, the shrinkage slowed down to zero when reaching equilibrium moisture content.

Astrocytic mechanisms explaining neural-activity-induced shrinkage of extraneuronal space

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Østby, Ivar; Øyehaug, Leiv; Einevoll, Gaute T

2009-01-01

Neuronal stimulation causes approximately 30% shrinkage of the extracellular space (ECS) between neurons and surrounding astrocytes in grey and white matter under experimental conditions. Despite its possible implications for a proper understanding of basic aspects of potassium clearance and astr......Neuronal stimulation causes approximately 30% shrinkage of the extracellular space (ECS) between neurons and surrounding astrocytes in grey and white matter under experimental conditions. Despite its possible implications for a proper understanding of basic aspects of potassium clearance...... concentrations observed in connection with neuronal stimulation, the actions of the Na(+)/K(+)/Cl(-) (NKCC1) and the Na(+)/HCO(3) (-) (NBC) cotransporters appear to be critical determinants for achieving observed quantitative levels of ECS shrinkage. Considering the current state of knowledge, the model...

Moisture migration and shrinkage of hardened cement paste at elevated temperatures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Numao, Tatsuya; Mihashi, Hirozo.

1991-01-01

The drying shrinkage of concrete is caused by the loss of water in the concrete. The moisture diffusion behavior influences the mechanical properties of concrete. When concrete is exposed to high temperature, the rate of moisture migration becomes fast, and moisture gradient is formed. This gradient causes cracks on the concrete surface. Accordingly, it is important to study on the relation between the drying shrinkage and the water diffusion in concrete when its mechanical properties at elevated temperature are discussed. In this paper, the results of the experiment which was carried out by using thin-walled cylinder specimens kept at different temperature and stress are reported. The specimens, the drying shrinkage of concrete and acoustic emission (AE), the thermal expansion of hardened cement paste, the influence that temperature change exerted to the drying shrinkage, and the influence that compressive stress and temperature exerted to water migration are described. The thin-walled cylinder specimens were useful for these experimental studies. (K.I.)

Shrinkage reduction of dental composites by addition of expandable zirconia filler

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skovgaard, M.; Almdal, Kristoffer; Sørensen, Bent F.

2011-01-01

. The shrinkage of the composite was calculated from density measurements using Archimedes method. The rate of the phase transformation in resin was measured by determining the volume fraction of monoclinic zirconia (vm). The composite had a vm of 0.5 after 8 h of water storage. The overall shrinkage...

Aerosol particle shrinkage event phenomenology in a South European suburban area during 2009-2015

Science.gov (United States)

Alonso-Blanco, E.; Gómez-Moreno, F. J.; Núñez, L.; Pujadas, M.; Cusack, M.; Artíñano, B.

2017-07-01

A high number of aerosol particle shrinkage cases (70) have been identified and analyzed from an extensive and representative database of aerosol size distributions obtained between 2009 and 2015 at an urban background site in Madrid (Spain). A descriptive classification based on the process from which the shrinkage began is proposed according which shrinkage events were divided into three groups: (1) NPF + shrinkage (NPF + S) events, (2) aerosol particle growth process + shrinkage (G + S) events, and (3) pure shrinkage (S) events. The largest number of shrinkages corresponded to the S-type followed by NPF + S, while the G + S events were the least frequent group recorded. Duration of shrinkages varied widely from 0.75 to 8.5 h and SR from -1.0 to -11.1 nm h-1. These processes typically occurred in the afternoon, around 18:00 UTC, caused by two situations: i) a wind speed increase usually associated with a change in the wind direction (over 60% of the observations) and ii) the reduction of photochemical activity at the end of the day. All shrinkages were detected during the warm period, mainly between May and August, when local meteorological conditions (high solar irradiance and temperature and low relative humidity), atmospheric processes (high photochemical activity) and availability of aerosol-forming precursors were favorable for their development. As a consequence of these processes, the particles concentration corresponding to the Aitken mode decreased into the nucleation mode. The accumulation mode did not undergo significant changes during these processes. In some cases, a dilution of the particulate content in the ambient air was observed. This work, goes further than others works dealing with aerosol particles shrinkages, as it incorporates as a main novelty a classification methodology for studying these processes. Moreover, compared to other studies, it is supported by a high and representative number of observations. Thus, this study contributes to

Water storage change estimation from in situ shrinkage measurements of clay soils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. te Brake

2013-05-01

Full Text Available The objective of this study is to assess the applicability of clay soil elevation change measurements to estimate soil water storage changes, using a simplified approach. We measured moisture contents in aggregates by EC-5 sensors, and in multiple aggregate and inter-aggregate spaces (bulk soil by CS616 sensors. In a long dry period, the assumption of constant isotropic shrinkage proved invalid and a soil moisture dependant geometry factor was applied. The relative overestimation made by assuming constant isotropic shrinkage in the linear (basic shrinkage phase was 26.4% (17.5 mm for the actively shrinking layer between 0 and 60 cm. Aggregate-scale water storage and volume change revealed a linear relation for layers ≥ 30 cm depth. The range of basic shrinkage in the bulk soil was limited by delayed drying of deep soil layers, and maximum water loss in the structural shrinkage phase was 40% of total water loss in the 0–60 cm layer, and over 60% in deeper layers. In the dry period, fitted slopes of the ΔV–ΔW relationship ranged from 0.41 to 0.56 (EC-5 and 0.42 to 0.55 (CS616. Under a dynamic drying and wetting regime, slopes ranged from 0.21 to 0.38 (EC-5 and 0.22 to 0.36 (CS616. Alternating shrinkage and incomplete swelling resulted in limited volume change relative to water storage change. The slope of the ΔV–ΔW relationship depended on the drying regime, measurement scale and combined effect of different soil layers. Therefore, solely relying on surface level elevation changes to infer soil water storage changes will lead to large underestimations. Recent and future developments might provide a basis for application of shrinkage relations to field situations, but in situ observations will be required to do so.

Shrinkage Characteristics of Experimental Polymer Containing Composites under Controlled Light Curing Modes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alain Pefferkorn

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The adsorption of polymethylmethacrylate polymer of different molecular weight at the aerosil/ethyleneglycol- or 1,3 butanediol-dimethacrylate interfaces was determined to provide microstructured networks. Their structural characteristics were determined to be controlled by the amount of polymer initially supplied to the system. The sediment (the settled phase characteristics, determined as a function of the polymer concentration and the rate of the polymerization shrinkage determined for composite resins, obtained by extrusion of the sediment after centrifugation, were found to be correlated. The specific role of the adsorbed polymer was found to be differently perturbed with the supplementary supply of dimethacrylate based monomer additives. Particularly, the bisphenol A dimethacrylate that generated crystals within the sediment was found to impede the shrinkage along the crystal lateral faces and strongly limit the shrinkage along its basal faces. Addition of ethyleneglycol- or polyethylene-glycoldimethacrylate monomers was determined to modify the sedimentation characteristics of the aerosil suspension and the shrinkage properties of the composites. Finally, the effects of stepwise light curing methods with prolonged lighting-off periods were investigated and found to modify the development and the final values of the composite shrinkage.

A numerical analysis method on thermal and shrinkage stress of concrete

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takiguchi, Katsuki; Hotta, Hisato

1991-01-01

Thermal stress often causes cracks in large scale concrete such as that for dam construction. The drying shrinkage of concrete causes cracks in concrete structures. These thermal stress and drying shrinkage stress may be the main reasons cracks occur in concrete, however there is few research which dealt with both stresses together. The problems on the thermal stress and the drying shrinkage are not independent, and should be dealt with together, because both temperature and water content of concrete affect hydration reaction, and the degree of hydration determines all the characteristics of concrete at early age. In this study, the degree of hydration is formulated experimentally, and a numerical stress analysis method taking the hydration reaction in consideration is presented. The formulation of the rate of hydration reaction, the method of analyzing thermal and drying shrinkage stresses, the analytical results for a concrete column and the influence that continuous load exerted to the tensile strength of concrete are reported. The relatively high stress nearly equal to the tensile strength of concrete arises near the surface. (K.I.)

Calcium silicate structure and carbonation shrinkage of a tobermorite-based material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Matsushita, Fumiaki; Aono, Yoshimichi; Shibata, Sumio

2004-01-01

Carbonated autoclaved aerated concretes (AACs) show no shrinkage at a degree of carbonation approximately less than 20%. The 29 Si MAS NMR spectrum showed that at a degree of carbonation less than 25%, the typical double-chain silicate anion structure of tobermorite-11A was well maintained and interlayer Ca ions were exchanged with protons. This corresponded to the absence of carbonation shrinkage at a degree of carbonation less than 20%. When the degree of carbonation increased from 25% to 50% up to 60%, the double-chain silicate anion structure of tobermorite-11A was decomposed and Ca ions in the Ca-O layers were dissolved, showing a possible mechanism of carbonation shrinkage

Astrocytic mechanisms explaining neural-activity-induced shrinkage of extraneuronal space.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivar Østby

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Neuronal stimulation causes approximately 30% shrinkage of the extracellular space (ECS between neurons and surrounding astrocytes in grey and white matter under experimental conditions. Despite its possible implications for a proper understanding of basic aspects of potassium clearance and astrocyte function, the phenomenon remains unexplained. Here we present a dynamic model that accounts for current experimental data related to the shrinkage phenomenon in wild-type as well as in gene knockout individuals. We find that neuronal release of potassium and uptake of sodium during stimulation, astrocyte uptake of potassium, sodium, and chloride in passive channels, action of the Na/K/ATPase pump, and osmotically driven transport of water through the astrocyte membrane together seem sufficient for generating ECS shrinkage as such. However, when taking into account ECS and astrocyte ion concentrations observed in connection with neuronal stimulation, the actions of the Na(+/K(+/Cl(- (NKCC1 and the Na(+/HCO(3 (- (NBC cotransporters appear to be critical determinants for achieving observed quantitative levels of ECS shrinkage. Considering the current state of knowledge, the model framework appears sufficiently detailed and constrained to guide future key experiments and pave the way for more comprehensive astroglia-neuron interaction models for normal as well as pathophysiological situations.

Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

CERN Document Server

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

2016-01-01

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kwag, Shinyoung [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States); Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon 305-353 (Korea, Republic of); Gupta, Abhinav, E-mail: agupta1@ncsu.edu [North Carolina State University, Raleigh, NC 27695 (United States)

2017-04-15

Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

Probabilistic risk assessment framework for structural systems under multiple hazards using Bayesian statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwag, Shinyoung; Gupta, Abhinav

2017-01-01

Highlights: • This study presents the development of Bayesian framework for probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of structural systems under multiple hazards. • The concepts of Bayesian network and Bayesian inference are combined by mapping the traditionally used fault trees into a Bayesian network. • The proposed mapping allows for consideration of dependencies as well as correlations between events. • Incorporation of Bayesian inference permits a novel way for exploration of a scenario that is likely to result in a system level “vulnerability.” - Abstract: Conventional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies (USNRC, 1983; IAEA, 1992; EPRI, 1994; Ellingwood, 2001) conduct risk assessment for different external hazards by considering each hazard separately and independent of each other. The risk metric for a specific hazard is evaluated by a convolution of the fragility and the hazard curves. The fragility curve for basic event is obtained by using empirical, experimental, and/or numerical simulation data for a particular hazard. Treating each hazard as an independently can be inappropriate in some cases as certain hazards are statistically correlated or dependent. Examples of such correlated events include but are not limited to flooding induced fire, seismically induced internal or external flooding, or even seismically induced fire. In the current practice, system level risk and consequence sequences are typically calculated using logic trees to express the causative relationship between events. In this paper, we present the results from a study on multi-hazard risk assessment that is conducted using a Bayesian network (BN) with Bayesian inference. The framework can consider statistical dependencies among risks from multiple hazards, allows updating by considering the newly available data/information at any level, and provide a novel way to explore alternative failure scenarios that may exist due to vulnerabilities.

Shrinkage modeling of concrete reinforced by palm fibres in hot dry environments

Science.gov (United States)

Akchiche, Hamida; Kriker, Abdelouahed

2017-02-01

The cement materials, such as concrete and conventional mortar present very little resistance to traction and cracking, these hydraulic materials which induces large withdrawals on materials and cracks in structures. The hot dry environments such as: the Saharan regions of Algeria, Indeed, concrete structures in these regions are very fragile, and present high shrinkage. Strengthening of these materials by fibers can provide technical solutions for improving the mechanical performance. The aim of this study is firstly, to reduce the shrinkage of conventional concrete with its reinforcement with date palm fibers. In fact, Algeria has an extraordinary resources in natural fibers (from Palm, Abaca, Hemp) but without valorization in practical areas, especially in building materials. Secondly, to model the shrinkage behavior of concrete was reinforced by date palm fibers. In the literature, several models for still fiber concrete were founded but few are offers for natural fiber concretes. To do so, a still fiber concretes model of YOUNG - CHERN was used. According to the results, a reduction of shrinkage with reinforcement by date palm fibers was showed. A good ability of molding of shrinkage of date palm reinforced concrete with YOUNG - CHERN Modified model was obtained. In fact, a good correlation between experimental data and the model data was recorded.

A break-even analysis of RFID technology for inventory sensitive to shrinkage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kok, de A.G.; Donselaar, van K.H.; Woensel, van T.

2008-01-01

By embedding RFID tags onto their products, both manufacturers and retailers try to control for shrinkage (e.g. due to theft). Current inventory control systems do not take into account the disappearing inventory due to this shrinkage. As a response, corrective actions are made by performing costly

Study of SEM preparation artefacts with correlative microscopy: Cell shrinkage of adherent cells by HMDS-drying.

Science.gov (United States)

Katsen-Globa, Alisa; Puetz, Norbert; Gepp, Michael M; Neubauer, Julia C; Zimmermann, Heiko

2016-11-01

One of the often reported artefacts during cell preparation to scanning electron microscopy (SEM) is the shrinkage of cellular objects, that mostly occurs at a certain time-dependent stage of cell drying. Various methods of drying for SEM, such as critical point drying, freeze-drying, as well as hexamethyldisilazane (HMDS)-drying, were usually used. The latter becomes popular since it is a low cost and fast method. However, the correlation of drying duration and real shrinkage of objects was not investigated yet. In this paper, cell shrinkage at each stage of preparation for SEM was studied. We introduce a shrinkage coefficient using correlative light microscopy (LM) and SEM of the same human mesenchymal stem cells (hMSCs). The influence of HMDS-drying duration on the cell shrinkage is shown: the longer drying duration, the more shrinkage is observed. Furthermore, it was demonstrated that cell shrinkage is inversely proportional to cultivation time: the longer cultivation time, the more cell spreading area and the less cell shrinkage. Our results can be applicable for an exact SEM quantification of cell size and determination of cell spreading area in engineering of artificial cellular environments using biomaterials. SCANNING 38:625-633, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Data Assimilation with Optimal Maps

Science.gov (United States)

El Moselhy, T.; Marzouk, Y.

2012-12-01

Tarek El Moselhy and Youssef Marzouk Massachusetts Institute of Technology We present a new approach to Bayesian inference that entirely avoids Markov chain simulation and sequential importance resampling, by constructing a map that pushes forward the prior measure to the posterior measure. Existence and uniqueness of a suitable measure-preserving map is established by formulating the problem in the context of optimal transport theory. The map is written as a multivariate polynomial expansion and computed efficiently through the solution of a stochastic optimization problem. While our previous work [1] focused on static Bayesian inference problems, we now extend the map-based approach to sequential data assimilation, i.e., nonlinear filtering and smoothing. One scheme involves pushing forward a fixed reference measure to each filtered state distribution, while an alternative scheme computes maps that push forward the filtering distribution from one stage to the other. We compare the performance of these schemes and extend the former to problems of smoothing, using a map implementation of the forward-backward smoothing formula. Advantages of a map-based representation of the filtering and smoothing distributions include analytical expressions for posterior moments and the ability to generate arbitrary numbers of independent uniformly-weighted posterior samples without additional evaluations of the dynamical model. Perhaps the main advantage, however, is that the map approach inherently avoids issues of sample impoverishment, since it explicitly represents the posterior as the pushforward of a reference measure, rather than with a particular set of samples. The computational complexity of our algorithm is comparable to state-of-the-art particle filters. Moreover, the accuracy of the approach is controlled via the convergence criterion of the underlying optimization problem. We demonstrate the efficiency and accuracy of the map approach via data assimilation in

Variational Bayesian Learning for Wavelet Independent Component Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Roussos, E.; Roberts, S.; Daubechies, I.

2005-11-01

In an exploratory approach to data analysis, it is often useful to consider the observations as generated from a set of latent generators or "sources" via a generally unknown mapping. For the noisy overcomplete case, where we have more sources than observations, the problem becomes extremely ill-posed. Solutions to such inverse problems can, in many cases, be achieved by incorporating prior knowledge about the problem, captured in the form of constraints. This setting is a natural candidate for the application of the Bayesian methodology, allowing us to incorporate "soft" constraints in a natural manner. The work described in this paper is mainly driven by problems in functional magnetic resonance imaging of the brain, for the neuro-scientific goal of extracting relevant "maps" from the data. This can be stated as a `blind' source separation problem. Recent experiments in the field of neuroscience show that these maps are sparse, in some appropriate sense. The separation problem can be solved by independent component analysis (ICA), viewed as a technique for seeking sparse components, assuming appropriate distributions for the sources. We derive a hybrid wavelet-ICA model, transforming the signals into a domain where the modeling assumption of sparsity of the coefficients with respect to a dictionary is natural. We follow a graphical modeling formalism, viewing ICA as a probabilistic generative model. We use hierarchical source and mixing models and apply Bayesian inference to the problem. This allows us to perform model selection in order to infer the complexity of the representation, as well as automatic denoising. Since exact inference and learning in such a model is intractable, we follow a variational Bayesian mean-field approach in the conjugate-exponential family of distributions, for efficient unsupervised learning in multi-dimensional settings. The performance of the proposed algorithm is demonstrated on some representative experiments.

Shrinkage Analysis on Thick Plate Part using Response Surface Methodology (RSM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Isafiq M.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The work reported herein is about an analysis on the quality (shrinkage on a thick plate part using Response Surface Methodology (RSM. Previous researches showed that the most influential factor affecting the shrinkage on moulded parts are mould and melt temperature. Autodesk Moldflow Insight software was used for the analysis, while specifications of Nessei NEX 1000 injection moulding machine and P20 mould material were incorporated in this study on top of Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS as a moulded thermoplastic material. Mould temperature, melt temperature, packing pressure and packing time were selected as variable parameters. The results show that the shrinkage have improved 42.48% and 14.41% in parallel and normal directions respectively after the optimisation process.

PREDIKSI SHRINKAGE UNTUK MENGHINDARI CACAT PRODUK PADA PLASTIC INJECTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Agus Dwi Anggono

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Plastic injection merupakan proses manufactur untuk membuat produk dengan bahan dasar plastic atau dalam kesempatan ini polypropylene. Pada proses tersebut seringkali terjadi cacat produk seperti pengerutan, retak, dimensi tidak sesuai dan kerusakan saat produk keluar dari mould, sehingga banyak material yang terbuang percuma. Meskipun cacat produk tersebut dipengaruhi banyak factor, tetapi yang paling utama adalah masalah shrinkage, atau penyusutan material setelah terjadi pendinginan. Sangat penting untuk melakukan prediksi lebih awal terjadinya penyusutan setelah pendinginan untuk menghindari cacat produk. Dalam penelitian ini akan dilakukan prediksi shrinkage yang akan digunakan untuk material polypropylene dengan cara perhitungan standar. Pembuatan modeling dalam bentuk 3D (tiga dimensi injection molding baik cavity maupun corenya dengan menggunakan CATIA, kemudian dilakukan analisis dengan software MoldFlow untuk pembuatan mesh dan memberikan batasan panas pada komponen sehingga dapat diketahui mode penyusutannya. Analisis ini akan memberikan gambaran tentang distribusi panas pada mould dan memberikan tentang gambaran aliran fluida. Pada analisis tersebut dapat dilihat gejala terjadinya cacat produk, jika hal itu terjadi maka perlu dilakukan perubahan shrinkage, sampai diperoleh hasil analisis yang baik.

Effect of steel fibers on plastic shrinkage cracking of normal and high strength concretes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Özgür Eren

2010-06-01

Full Text Available Naturally concrete shrinks when it is subjected to a drying environment. If this shrinkage is restrained, tensile stresses develop and concrete may crack. Plastic shrinkage cracks are especially harmful on slabs. One of the methods to reduce the adverse effects of shrinkage cracking of concrete is by reinforcing concrete with short randomly distributed fibers. The main objective of this study was to investigate the effect of fiber volume and aspect ratio of hooked steel fibers on plastic shrinkage cracking behavior together with some other properties of concrete. In this research two different compressive strength levels namely 56 and 73 MPa were studied. Concretes were produced by adding steel fibers of 3 different volumes of 3 different aspect ratios. From this research study, it is observed that steel fibers can significantly reduce plastic shrinkage cracking behavior of concretes. On the other hand, it was observed that these steel fibers can adversely affect some other properties of concrete during fresh and hardened states.

Drying Shrinkage Behaviour of Fibre Reinforced Concrete Incorporating Polyvinyl Alcohol Fibres and Fly Ash

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Noushini

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The current study assesses the drying shrinkage behaviour of polyvinyl alcohol fibre reinforced concrete (PVA-FRC containing short-length (6 mm and long-length (12 mm uncoated monofilament PVA fibres at 0.125%, 0.25%, 0.375%, and 0.5% volumetric fractions. Fly ash is also used as a partial replacement of Portland cement in all mixes. PVA-FRC mixes have been compared to length change of control concrete (devoid of fibres at 3 storage intervals: early-age (0–7 days, short-term (0–28 days, and long-term (28–112 days intervals. The shrinkage results of FRC and control concrete up to 112 days indicated that all PVA-FRC mixes exhibited higher drying shrinkage than control. The shrinkage exhibited by PVA-FRC mixes ranged from 449 to 480 microstrain, where this value was only 427 microstrain in the case of control. In addition, the longer fibres exhibited higher mass loss, thus potentially contributing to higher shrinkage.

The Shrinkage Cracking Behavior in Reinforced Reactive Powder Concrete Walls

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samir A. Al-Mashhadi

2017-07-01

Full Text Available In this study, the reduced scale wall models were used (they are believed to resemble as much as possible the field conditions to study the shrinkage behavior of reactive powder concrete (RPC base restrained walls. Six base restrained RPC walls were casted in different length/height ratios of two ratios of steel fiber by volume in Summer. These walls were restrained by reinforced concrete bases to provide the continuous base restraint to the walls. The mechanical properties of reactive powder concrete investigated were; compressive strength between (75.3 – 140.1 MPa, splitting tensile strength between (5.7 – 13.9 MPa, flexural tensile strength (7.7 – 24.5 MPa, and static modulus of elasticity (32.7 – 47.1GPa. Based on the observations of this work, it was found that the cracks did not develop in the reduced scale of the reactive powder concrete (RPC walls restrained from movement at their bases for different L/H ratios (2, 5, and 10 and for two ratio of steel fiber (1% & 2% during 90 days period of drying conditions. Moreover, the shrinkage values increase toward the edges. Based on the results of this work, the increase in the maximum shrinkage values of walls with 1% steel fiber were (29%, 28%, 28% of the maximum shrinkage values of walls with 2% steel fiber of length/height ratios of (2, 5, and 10 respectively. The experimental observation in beam specimens showed that the free shrinkage, tensile strain capacity and elastic tensile strain capacity (at date of cracking of beams with 1% steel fiber were higher than the beams with 2% steel fiber by about (24%, (45% and (42% respectively

The influence of superabsorbent polymers on the autogenous shrinkage properties of cement pastes with supplementary cementitious materials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Snoeck, D.; Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; De Belie, N.

2015-01-01

Fly ash and blast-furnace slag containing binders are frequently used in the construction industry and it is important to know the extent of autogenous shrinkage and its (ideal) mitigation by superabsorbent polymers in these systems as a function of their age. In this paper, the autogenous...... shrinkage was determined by manual and automated shrinkage measurements. Autogenous shrinkage was reduced in cement pastes with the supplementary cementitious materials versus Portland cement pastes. At later ages, the rate of autogenous shrinkage is higher due to the pozzolanic activity. Internal curing...

Shrinkage-reducing admixtures and early-age desiccation in cement pastes and mortars

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bentz, D. P.; Geiker, Mette Rica; Hansen, Kurt Kielsgaard

2001-01-01

Fundamental studies of the early-age desiccation of cement-based materials with and without a shrinkage-reducing admixture (SRA) have been performed. Studies have been conducted under both sealed and drying conditions. Physical measurements include mass loss, surface tension, X-ray absorption to ...... to low w/c ratio concretes undergoing self-desiccation, in addition to their normal usage to reduce drying shrinkage.......Fundamental studies of the early-age desiccation of cement-based materials with and without a shrinkage-reducing admixture (SRA) have been performed. Studies have been conducted under both sealed and drying conditions. Physical measurements include mass loss, surface tension, X-ray absorption...

Effects of Shrinkage Reducing Agent and Expansive Admixture on the Volume Deformation of Ultrahigh Performance Concrete

OpenAIRE

Anshuang, Su; Ling, Qin; Shoujie, Zhang; Jiayang, Zhang; Zhaoyu, Li

2017-01-01

This paper investigated the influences of shrinkage reducing agent and expansive admixture on autogenous and drying shrinkage of ultrahigh performance concrete (UHPC) containing antifoaming admixture. The shrinkage reducing agent was used at dosage of 0.5%, 1%, and 2% and the expansive admixture was used at dosage of 2% to 4% by mass of cementitious material. The results show that the air content of UHPC increases with the higher addition of shrinkage reducing agent and expansive admixtures. ...

The effect of mucosal cuff shrinkage around dental implants during healing abutment replacement.

Science.gov (United States)

Nissan, J; Zenziper, E; Rosner, O; Kolerman, R; Chaushu, L; Chaushu, G

2015-10-01

Soft tissue shrinkage during the course of restoring dental implants may result in biological and prosthodontic difficulties. This study was conducted to measure the continuous shrinkage of the mucosal cuff around dental implants following the removal of the healing abutment up to 60 s. Individuals treated with implant-supported fixed partial dentures were included. Implant data--location, type, length, diameter and healing abutments' dimensions--were recorded. Mucosal cuff shrinkage, following removal of the healing abutments, was measured in bucco-lingual direction at four time points--immediately after 20, 40 and 60 s. anova was used to for statistical analysis. Eighty-seven patients (49 women and 38 men) with a total of 311 implants were evaluated (120 maxilla; 191 mandible; 291 posterior segments; 20 anterior segments). Two-hundred and five (66%) implants displayed thick and 106 (34%) thin gingival biotype. Time was the sole statistically significant parameter affecting mucosal cuff shrinkage around dental implants (P < 0.001). From time 0 to 20, 40 and 60 s, the mean diameter changed from 4.1 to 4.07, 3.4 and 2.81 mm, respectively. The shrinkage was 1%, 17% and 31%, respectively. The gingival biotype had no statistically significant influence on mucosal cuff shrinkage (P = 0.672). Time required replacing a healing abutment with a prosthetic element should be minimised (up to 20/40 s), to avoid pain, discomfort and misfit. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

A generalized DEMATEL theory with a shrinkage coefficient for an indirect relation matrix

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liu Hsiang-Chuan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a novel decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL theory with a shrinkage coefficient of indirect relation matrix is proposed, and a useful validity index, called Liu’s validity index, is also proposed for evaluating the performance of any DEMATEL model. If the shrinkage coefficient of an indirect relation matrix is equal to 1, then this new theory is identical to the traditional theory; in other words, it is a generalization of the traditional theory. Furthermore, the indirect relation is always considerably greater than the direct one in traditional DEMATEL theory, which is unreasonable and unfair because it overemphasizes the influence of the indirect relation. We prove in this paper that if the shrinkage coefficient is equal to 0.5, then the indirect relation is less than its direct relation. Because the shrinkage coefficient belongs to [0.5, 1], according to Liu’s validity index, we can find a more appropriate shrinkage coefficient to obtain a more efficient DEMATEL method. Some crucial properties of this new theory are discussed, and a simple example is provided to illustrate the advantages of the proposed theory.

DH and ESPI laser interferometry applied to the restoration shrinkage assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campos, L.M.P.; Parra, D.F.; Vasconcelos, M.R.; Vaz, M.; Monteiro, J.

2014-01-01

In dental restoration postoperative marginal leakage is commonly associated to polymerization shrinkage effects. In consequence the longevity and quality of restorative treatment depends on the shrinkage mechanisms of the composite filling during the polymerization. In this work the development of new techniques for evaluation of those effects under light-induced polymerization of dental nano composite fillings is reported. The composite resins activated by visible light, initiate the polymerization process by absorbing light in wavelengths at about 470 nm. The techniques employed in the contraction assessment were digital holography (DH) and Electronic Speckle Pattern Interferometry (ESPI) based on laser interferometry. A satisfactory resolution was achieved in the non-contact displacement field measurements on small objects concerning the experimental dental samples. According to a specific clinical protocol, natural teeth were used (human mandibular premolars). A class I cavity was drilled and restored with nano composite material, according to Black principles. The polymerization was monitored by DH and ESPI in real time during the cure reaction of the restoration. The total displacement reported for the material in relation of the tooth wall was 3.7 μm (natural tooth). The technique showed the entire tooth surface (wall) deforming during polymerization shrinkage. - Highlights: • Both of holographic techniques were able to measure the polymerization shrinkage. • The entire tooth surface was deformed during the polymerization shrinkage. • The group with greater percentage of filler showed the lowest value of deformation. • The values of displacement ranged from 0.9 to 3.4 μm

Complexity analysis of accelerated MCMC methods for Bayesian inversion

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hoang, Viet Ha; Schwab, Christoph; Stuart, Andrew M

2013-01-01

The Bayesian approach to inverse problems, in which the posterior probability distribution on an unknown field is sampled for the purposes of computing posterior expectations of quantities of interest, is starting to become computationally feasible for partial differential equation (PDE) inverse problems. Balancing the sources of error arising from finite-dimensional approximation of the unknown field, the PDE forward solution map and the sampling of the probability space under the posterior distribution are essential for the design of efficient computational Bayesian methods for PDE inverse problems. We study Bayesian inversion for a model elliptic PDE with an unknown diffusion coefficient. We provide complexity analyses of several Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods for the efficient numerical evaluation of expectations under the Bayesian posterior distribution, given data δ. Particular attention is given to bounds on the overall work required to achieve a prescribed error level ε. Specifically, we first bound the computational complexity of ‘plain’ MCMC, based on combining MCMC sampling with linear complexity multi-level solvers for elliptic PDE. Our (new) work versus accuracy bounds show that the complexity of this approach can be quite prohibitive. Two strategies for reducing the computational complexity are then proposed and analyzed: first, a sparse, parametric and deterministic generalized polynomial chaos (gpc) ‘surrogate’ representation of the forward response map of the PDE over the entire parameter space, and, second, a novel multi-level Markov chain Monte Carlo strategy which utilizes sampling from a multi-level discretization of the posterior and the forward PDE. For both of these strategies, we derive asymptotic bounds on work versus accuracy, and hence asymptotic bounds on the computational complexity of the algorithms. In particular, we provide sufficient conditions on the regularity of the unknown coefficients of the PDE and on the

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2010-01-01

Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

Spatiotemporal analysis and mapping of oral cancer risk in changhua county (taiwan): an application of generalized bayesian maximum entropy method.

Science.gov (United States)

Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chiang, Chi-Ting; Lin, Shu-De; Chang, Tsun-Kuo

2010-02-01

Incidence rate of oral cancer in Changhua County is the highest among the 23 counties of Taiwan during 2001. However, in health data analysis, crude or adjusted incidence rates of a rare event (e.g., cancer) for small populations often exhibit high variances and are, thus, less reliable. We proposed a generalized Bayesian Maximum Entropy (GBME) analysis of spatiotemporal disease mapping under conditions of considerable data uncertainty. GBME was used to study the oral cancer population incidence in Changhua County (Taiwan). Methodologically, GBME is based on an epistematics principles framework and generates spatiotemporal estimates of oral cancer incidence rates. In a way, it accounts for the multi-sourced uncertainty of rates, including small population effects, and the composite space-time dependence of rare events in terms of an extended Poisson-based semivariogram. The results showed that GBME analysis alleviates the noises of oral cancer data from population size effect. Comparing to the raw incidence data, the maps of GBME-estimated results can identify high risk oral cancer regions in Changhua County, where the prevalence of betel quid chewing and cigarette smoking is relatively higher than the rest of the areas. GBME method is a valuable tool for spatiotemporal disease mapping under conditions of uncertainty. 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Effectiveness of shrinkage-reducing admixtures on Portland pozzolan cement concrete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Videla, C.

2005-06-01

Full Text Available Drying shrinkage causes tensile stress in restrained concrete members. Since all structural elements are subject to some degree of restraint, drying shrinkage is regarded to be one of the main causes of concrete cracking. The purpose of the present study was to evaluate the effectiveness of SRA in reducing drying shrinkage strain in Portland pozzolan cement concrete. The major variables examined included slump, admixture type and dose, and specimen size. The measured results indicate that any of the admixtures used in the study significantly reduced shrinkage. Concrete manufactured with shrinkage reducing admixtures shrank an average of 43% less than concrete without admixtures. As a rule, the higher the dose of admixture, the higher was its shrinkage reduction performance. The experimental results were compared to the shrinkage strain estimated with the ACI 209, CEB MC 90, B3, GL 2000, Sakata 1993 and Sakata 2001 models. Although none of these models was observed to accurately describe the behaviour of Portland pozzolan cement concrete with shrinkage reducing admixtures, the Sakata 2001 model, with a weighted coefficient of variation of under 30%, may be regarded to be roughly adequate.

La retracción por secado es un fenómeno intrínseco del hormigón que produce tensiones de tracción en elementos restringidos de hormigón. Puesto que todos los elementos presentan algún grado de retracción, se considera a la retracción por secado como una de las principales causas de agrietamiento en proyectos de construcción en hormigón. Por lo tanto, el objetivo de esta investigación fue evaluar la efectividad de los aditivos reductores de retracción (SRA en hormigones fabricados con cemento Portland puzolánico. Las variables principales estudiadas incluyen el asentamiento de cono de Abrams, marca y dosis de aditivo reductor de retracción, y tamaño de espécimen de hormigón. Los resultados obtenidos permiten concluir que el uso de

An Odometry-free Approach for Simultaneous Localization and Online Hybrid Map Building

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Hong Chin

2016-11-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a new approach is proposed for mobile robot localization and hybrid map building simultaneously without using any odometry hardware system. The proposed method termed as Genetic Bayesian ARAM which comprises two main components: 1 Steady state genetic algorithm (SSGA for self-localization and occupancy grid map building; 2 Bayesian Adaptive Resonance Associative Memory (ARAM for online topological map building. The model of the explored environment is formed as a hybrid representation, both topological and grid-based, and it is incrementally constructed during the exploration process. During occupancy map building, robot estimated self-position is updated by SSGA. At the same time, robot estimated self position is transmit to Bayesian ARAM for topological map building and localization. The effectiveness of our proposed approach is validated by a number of standardized benchmark datasets and real experimental results carried on mobile robot. Benchmark datasets are used to verify the proposed method capable of generating topological map in different environment conditions. Real robot experiment is to verify the proposed method can be implemented in real world.

Void shrinkage in stainless steel during high energy electron irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Singh, B.N.; Foreman, A.J.E.

1976-03-01

During irradiation of thin foils of an austenitic stainless steel in a high voltage electron microscope, steadily growing voids have been observed to suddenly shrink and disappear at the irradiation temperature of 650 0 Cthe phenomenon has been observed in specimens both with and withoutimplanted helium. Possible mechanisms for void shrinkage during irradiation are considered. It is suggested that the dislocation-pipe-diffusion of vacancies from or of self-interstitial atoms to the voids can explain the shrinkage behaviour of voids observed during our experiments. (author)

Dissection of a Complex Disease Susceptibility Region Using a Bayesian Stochastic Search Approach to Fine Mapping.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chris Wallace

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Identification of candidate causal variants in regions associated with risk of common diseases is complicated by linkage disequilibrium (LD and multiple association signals. Nonetheless, accurate maps of these variants are needed, both to fully exploit detailed cell specific chromatin annotation data to highlight disease causal mechanisms and cells, and for design of the functional studies that will ultimately be required to confirm causal mechanisms. We adapted a Bayesian evolutionary stochastic search algorithm to the fine mapping problem, and demonstrated its improved performance over conventional stepwise and regularised regression through simulation studies. We then applied it to fine map the established multiple sclerosis (MS and type 1 diabetes (T1D associations in the IL-2RA (CD25 gene region. For T1D, both stepwise and stochastic search approaches identified four T1D association signals, with the major effect tagged by the single nucleotide polymorphism, rs12722496. In contrast, for MS, the stochastic search found two distinct competing models: a single candidate causal variant, tagged by rs2104286 and reported previously using stepwise analysis; and a more complex model with two association signals, one of which was tagged by the major T1D associated rs12722496 and the other by rs56382813. There is low to moderate LD between rs2104286 and both rs12722496 and rs56382813 (r2 ≃ 0:3 and our two SNP model could not be recovered through a forward stepwise search after conditioning on rs2104286. Both signals in the two variant model for MS affect CD25 expression on distinct subpopulations of CD4+ T cells, which are key cells in the autoimmune process. The results support a shared causal variant for T1D and MS. Our study illustrates the benefit of using a purposely designed model search strategy for fine mapping and the advantage of combining disease and protein expression data.

Strength, shrinkage, erodibility and capillary flow characteristics of cement-treated recycled pavement materials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

William Fedrigo

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Full-depth recycling with portland cement (FDR-PC has been widely used for pavement rehabilitation; however, doubts remain regarding factors affecting some properties of the recycled material. Aiming on quantifying the effects of those factors on the strength, drying shrinkage, erodibility, capillary rise and absorption of cement-treated mixtures (CTM of reclaimed asphalt pavement (RAP and graded crushed stone, tests were conducted considering different RAP contents, cement contents, compaction efforts and curing times. Cement addition increased the mixtures strength and reduced their erodibility and capillary flow characteristics, but increased shrinkage. Low cement contents resulted in acceptable strength for CTM, but in high capillary rise and absorption, not being suitable if the layer is exposed to long periods of water soaking. Higher compaction effort led to similar effects as cement addition, counterbalancing low cement contents usage and reducing costs and shrinkage cracking risk. Strength and shrinkage showed higher growth rates at early stages, and then precautions should be taken in order to avoid moisture loss. Increasing RAP content decreased strength; though, RAP effect on the other properties was statistically non-significant, indicating a similar behaviour as CTM without RAP. Considering the studied properties, the mixture with most satisfactory behaviour for field applications was identified. The results highlighted strength is not the only property to be considered when designing FDR-PC mixtures; although presenting acceptable strength, some mixtures may fail due to shrinkage cracking or erosion, when exposed to water content variations. Keywords: Full-depth recycling with cement, Strength, Drying shrinkage, Erodibility, Capillary rise, Absorption

Diversity shrinkage: Cross-validating pareto-optimal weights to enhance diversity via hiring practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Song, Q Chelsea; Wee, Serena; Newman, Daniel A

2017-12-01

To reduce adverse impact potential and improve diversity outcomes from personnel selection, one promising technique is De Corte, Lievens, and Sackett's (2007) Pareto-optimal weighting strategy. De Corte et al.'s strategy has been demonstrated on (a) a composite of cognitive and noncognitive (e.g., personality) tests (De Corte, Lievens, & Sackett, 2008) and (b) a composite of specific cognitive ability subtests (Wee, Newman, & Joseph, 2014). Both studies illustrated how Pareto-weighting (in contrast to unit weighting) could lead to substantial improvement in diversity outcomes (i.e., diversity improvement), sometimes more than doubling the number of job offers for minority applicants. The current work addresses a key limitation of the technique-the possibility of shrinkage, especially diversity shrinkage, in the Pareto-optimal solutions. Using Monte Carlo simulations, sample size and predictor combinations were varied and cross-validated Pareto-optimal solutions were obtained. Although diversity shrinkage was sizable for a composite of cognitive and noncognitive predictors when sample size was at or below 500, diversity shrinkage was typically negligible for a composite of specific cognitive subtest predictors when sample size was at least 100. Diversity shrinkage was larger when the Pareto-optimal solution suggested substantial diversity improvement. When sample size was at least 100, cross-validated Pareto-optimal weights typically outperformed unit weights-suggesting that diversity improvement is often possible, despite diversity shrinkage. Implications for Pareto-optimal weighting, adverse impact, sample size of validation studies, and optimizing the diversity-job performance tradeoff are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Bayesian Graphical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2016-01-01

Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

Experimental Analysis on Shrinkage and Swelling in Ordinary Concrete

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Barbara Kucharczyková

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with the experimental determination of shrinkage development during concrete ageing. Three concrete mixtures were made. They differed in the amount of cement in the fresh mixture, 300, 350, and 400 kg/m3. In order to determine the influence of plasticiser on the progress of volume changes, another three concrete mixtures were prepared with plasticiser in the amount of 0.25% by cement mass. Measurements were performed with the goal of observing the influence of cement and plasticiser content on the overall development of volume changes in the concrete. Changes in length and mass losses of the concrete during ageing were measured simultaneously. The continuous measurement of concrete mass losses caused by drying of the specimen’s surface proved useful during the interpretation of results obtained from the concrete shrinkage measurement. During the first 24 hours of ageing, all the concrete mixtures exhibited swelling. Its magnitude and progress were influenced by cement, water, and plasticiser content. However, a loss of mass caused by water evaporation from the surface of the specimens was also recorded in this stage. The measured progress of shrinkage corresponded well to the progress of mass loss.

Shrinkage Approach for Gene Expression Data Analysis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Haman, Jiří; Valenta, Zdeněk; Kalina, Jan

2013-01-01

Roč. 1, č. 1 (2013), s. 65-65 ISSN 1805-8698. [EFMI 2013 Special Topic Conference. 17.04.2013-19.04.2013, Prague] Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : shrinkage estimation * covariance matrix * high dimensional data * gene expression Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science

Assessment of the accuracy of a Bayesian estimation algorithm for perfusion CT by using a digital phantom

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Uwano, Ikuko; Goodwin, Jonathan; Higuchi, Satomi; Ito, Kenji; Yamashita, Fumio; Boutelier, Timothe; Pautot, Fabrice; Christensen, Soren

2013-01-01

A new deconvolution algorithm, the Bayesian estimation algorithm, was reported to improve the precision of parametric maps created using perfusion computed tomography. However, it remains unclear whether quantitative values generated by this method are more accurate than those generated using optimized deconvolution algorithms of other software packages. Hence, we compared the accuracy of the Bayesian and deconvolution algorithms by using a digital phantom. The digital phantom data, in which concentration-time curves reflecting various known values for cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), mean transit time (MTT), and tracer delays were embedded, were analyzed using the Bayesian estimation algorithm as well as delay-insensitive singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithms of two software packages that were the best benchmarks in a previous cross-validation study. Correlation and agreement of quantitative values of these algorithms with true values were examined. CBF, CBV, and MTT values estimated by all the algorithms showed strong correlations with the true values (r = 0.91-0.92, 0.97-0.99, and 0.91-0.96, respectively). In addition, the values generated by the Bayesian estimation algorithm for all of these parameters showed good agreement with the true values [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) = 0.90, 0.99, and 0.96, respectively], while MTT values from the SVD algorithms were suboptimal (ICC = 0.81-0.82). Quantitative analysis using a digital phantom revealed that the Bayesian estimation algorithm yielded CBF, CBV, and MTT maps strongly correlated with the true values and MTT maps with better agreement than those produced by delay-insensitive SVD algorithms. (orig.)

Assessment of the accuracy of a Bayesian estimation algorithm for perfusion CT by using a digital phantom

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sasaki, Makoto; Kudo, Kohsuke; Uwano, Ikuko; Goodwin, Jonathan; Higuchi, Satomi; Ito, Kenji; Yamashita, Fumio [Iwate Medical University, Division of Ultrahigh Field MRI, Institute for Biomedical Sciences, Yahaba (Japan); Boutelier, Timothe; Pautot, Fabrice [Olea Medical, Department of Research and Innovation, La Ciotat (France); Christensen, Soren [University of Melbourne, Department of Neurology and Radiology, Royal Melbourne Hospital, Victoria (Australia)

2013-10-15

A new deconvolution algorithm, the Bayesian estimation algorithm, was reported to improve the precision of parametric maps created using perfusion computed tomography. However, it remains unclear whether quantitative values generated by this method are more accurate than those generated using optimized deconvolution algorithms of other software packages. Hence, we compared the accuracy of the Bayesian and deconvolution algorithms by using a digital phantom. The digital phantom data, in which concentration-time curves reflecting various known values for cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), mean transit time (MTT), and tracer delays were embedded, were analyzed using the Bayesian estimation algorithm as well as delay-insensitive singular value decomposition (SVD) algorithms of two software packages that were the best benchmarks in a previous cross-validation study. Correlation and agreement of quantitative values of these algorithms with true values were examined. CBF, CBV, and MTT values estimated by all the algorithms showed strong correlations with the true values (r = 0.91-0.92, 0.97-0.99, and 0.91-0.96, respectively). In addition, the values generated by the Bayesian estimation algorithm for all of these parameters showed good agreement with the true values [intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) = 0.90, 0.99, and 0.96, respectively], while MTT values from the SVD algorithms were suboptimal (ICC = 0.81-0.82). Quantitative analysis using a digital phantom revealed that the Bayesian estimation algorithm yielded CBF, CBV, and MTT maps strongly correlated with the true values and MTT maps with better agreement than those produced by delay-insensitive SVD algorithms. (orig.)

Landslide Susceptibility Mapping of Tegucigalpa, Honduras Using Artificial Neural Network, Bayesian Network and Decision Trees

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia Urquia, E. L.; Braun, A.; Yamagishi, H.

2016-12-01

Tegucigalpa, the capital city of Honduras, experiences rainfall-induced landslides on a yearly basis. The high precipitation regime and the rugged topography the city has been built in couple with the lack of a proper urban expansion plan to contribute to the occurrence of landslides during the rainy season. Thousands of inhabitants live at risk of losing their belongings due to the construction of precarious shelters in landslide-prone areas on mountainous terrains and next to the riverbanks. Therefore, the city is in the need for landslide susceptibility and hazard maps to aid in the regulation of future development. Major challenges in the context of highly dynamic urbanizing areas are the overlap of natural and anthropogenic slope destabilizing factors, as well as the availability and accuracy of data. Data-driven multivariate techniques have proven to be powerful in discovering interrelations between factors, identifying important factors in large datasets, capturing non-linear problems and coping with noisy and incomplete data. This analysis focuses on the creation of a landslide susceptibility map using different methods from the field of data mining, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN), Bayesian Networks (BN) and Decision Trees (DT). The input dataset of the study contains geomorphological and hydrological factors derived from a digital elevation model with a 10 m resolution, lithological factors derived from a geological map, and anthropogenic factors, such as information on the development stage of the neighborhoods in Tegucigalpa and road density. Moreover, a landslide inventory map that was developed in 2014 through aerial photo interpretation was used as target variable in the analysis. The analysis covers an area of roughly 100 km2, while 8.95 km2 are occupied by landslides. In a first step, the dataset was explored by assessing and improving the data quality, identifying unimportant variables and finding interrelations. Then, based on a training

Shrinkage and durability study of bridge deck concrete.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-01

The Mississippi Department of Transportation is incorporating changes to material : specifications and construction procedures for bridge decks in an effort to reduce shrinkage : cracking. These changes are currently being implemented into a limited ...

Hydration of Portoguese cements, measurement and modelling of chemical shrinkage

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Maia, Lino; Geiker, Mette Rica; Figueiras, Joaquim A.

2008-01-01

form of the dispersion model. The development of hydration varied between the investigated cements; based on the measured data the degree of hydration after 24 h hydration at 20 C varied between 40 and 50%. This should be taken into account when comparing properties of concrete made from the different......Development of cement hydration was studied by measuring the chemical shrinkage of pastes. Five types of Portuguese Portland cement were used in cement pastes with . Chemical shrinkage was measured by gravimetry and dilatometry. In gravimeters results were recorded automatically during at least...

Sudden shrinkage of free rectus abdominis musculocutaneous flap 15 years after maxilla reconstruction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasushi Mochizuki

2018-03-01

Full Text Available A 60-year-old male displayed sudden shrinkage of a left free rectus abdominis musculocutaneous flap, which had been grafted to his left maxilla 15 years previously. No post-reconstructive irradiation had been performed, and no late occlusion of the vascular anastomosis, local infection, recurrence of the maxillary cancer, or body weight loss was observed. However, the shrinkage amounted to approximately 50%. This is considerably more than previously reported cases of shrinkage of various free flaps, which ranged between 10% and 25%. The resultant depression was successfully augmented with a right free deep inferior epigastric artery perforator flap. The residual fat volume of the previously grafted shrunken flap was revealed to be compatible with that of the newly harvested contralateral perforator flap. Thus, the volume of the previously grafted flap may reflect the status of the intact contralateral donor site, although the mechanism of sudden flap shrinkage is unclear.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2003-01-01

As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

Clay Mineralogy of Brazilian Oxisols with Shrinkage Properties

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Samara Alves Testoni

2017-08-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Shrinkage capacity (caráter retrátil in Portuguese is a new diagnostic characteristic recently introduced in the Brazilian System of Soil Classification (SiBCS to indicate shrink and swell properties observed in subtropical soils from highland plateaus in southern Brazil, specifically in Oxisols with brown colors. In soils located in road cuts exposed to drying for some weeks, strong shrinkage of soil volume is observed in these soils, resulting in the formation of pronounced vertical cracks and large and very large prismatic structures, which crumble in blocks when handled. We hypothesize that such properties are related to their clay mineralogy, although there are no conclusive studies about this, the motive for the present study. Samples of the A and B horizons from six Oxisols with expansive capacity from the states of Santa Catarina and Rio Grande do Sul were analyzed. One Rhodic Hapludox, from the state of Paraná, without expansive capacity, was used for comparison. All the soils are very clayey, originated from basalt, and have similar iron oxide content. For identification of clay mineralogy, X-ray diffraction techniques were employed, together with the use of NEWMOD® software to investigate and describe the interstratified minerals. The results showed that most expansive soils have a similar mineralogical composition, with kaolinite, interstratified kaolinite-smectite (K-S, and hydroxy-Al interlayered smectites (HIS, unlike the non-expansive Rhodic Hapludox, which exhibited kaolinite with significant amounts of gibbsite and low amount of interstratified K-S. According to the mineralogical assemblage identified in the expansive soils, we can affirm that the mechanism of smectite expansion and contraction is related to the shrinkage capacity of the soil, considering that the level of hydroxy-Al intercalation is low. In addition, these mechanisms also are related to the presence of quasicrystals and domains that control the

A new approach for supply chain risk management: Mapping SCOR into Bayesian network

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahdi Abolghasemi

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Purpose: Increase of costs and complexities in organizations beside the increase of uncertainty and risks have led the managers to use the risk management in order to decrease risk taking and deviation from goals. SCRM has a close relationship with supply chain performance. During the years different methods have been used by researchers in order to manage supply chain risk but most of them are either qualitative or quantitative. Supply chain operation reference (SCOR is a standard model for SCP evaluation which have uncertainty in its metrics. In This paper by combining qualitative and quantitative metrics of SCOR, supply chain performance will be measured by Bayesian Networks. Design/methodology/approach: First qualitative assessment will be done by recognizing uncertain metrics of SCOR model and then by quantifying them, supply chain performance will be measured by Bayesian Networks (BNs and supply chain operations reference (SCOR in which making decision on uncertain variables will be done by predictive and diagnostic capabilities. Findings: After applying the proposed method in one of the biggest automotive companies in Iran, we identified key factors of supply chain performance based on SCOR model through predictive and diagnostic capability of Bayesian Networks. After sensitivity analysis, we find out that ‘Total cost’ and its criteria that include costs of labors, warranty, transportation and inventory have the widest range and most effect on supply chain performance. So, managers should take their importance into account for decision making. We can make decisions simply by running model in different situations. Research limitations/implications: A more precise model consisted of numerous factors but it is difficult and sometimes impossible to solve big models, if we insert all of them in a Bayesian model. We have adopted real world characteristics with our software and method abilities. On the other hand, fewer data exist for some

Characteristics of low polymerization shrinkage flowable resin composites in newly-developed cavity base materials for bulk filling technique.

Science.gov (United States)

Nitta, Keiko; Nomoto, Rie; Tsubota, Yuji; Tsuchikawa, Masuji; Hayakawa, Tohru

2017-11-29

The purpose of this study was to evaluate polymerization shrinkage and other physical properties of newly-developed cavity base materials for bulk filling technique, with the brand name BULK BASE (BBS). Polymerization shrinkage was measured according to ISO/FDIS 17304. BBS showed the significantly lowest polymerization shrinkage and significantly higher depth of cure than conventional flowable resin composites (p<0.05). The Knoop hardness, flexural strength and elastic modulus of that were significantly lower than conventional flowable resin composites (p<0.05). BBS had the significantly greatest filler content (p<0.05). SEM images of the surface showed failure of fillers. The lowest polymerization shrinkage was due to the incorporation of a new type of low shrinkage monomer, which has urethane moieties. There were no clear correlations between inorganic filler contents and polymerization shrinkage, flexural strength and elastic modulus. In conclusion, the low polymerization shrinkage of BBS will be useful for cavity treatment in dental clinics.

A case study of shrinkage-in place leaching of low grade uranium ore deposit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ding Dexin; Zhou Guohe

1998-09-01

A case study of shrinkage-in place leaching of low grade uranium ore deposit is dealt with. A test block was selected, and the shrinkage mining method was employed to construct the in place heap for leaching. Blast parameters and operations were carefully tried in order to make sure that the fragment size composition was adequate for leaching. A leaching system was planned and the corresponding leaching parameters were tried, too. The results show that the shrinkage method and the parameters for blasting and leaching are all adequate for the in-situ leaching of the blasted ore. This shrinkage-in place leaching system combines the mining and metallurgy processes into one and produces a lot of profits and could be applicable to many low grade uranium ore deposits which are so hard and compact that they have to be fragmented before being leached

Fabrication and characterization of self-folding thermoplastic sheets using unbalanced thermal shrinkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Danielson, Christian; Mehrnezhad, Ali; YekrangSafakar, Ashkan; Park, Kidong

2017-06-14

Self-folding or micro-origami technologies are actively investigated as a novel manufacturing process to fabricate three-dimensional macro/micro-structures. In this paper, we present a simple process to produce a self-folding structure with a biaxially oriented polystyrene sheet (BOPS) or Shrinky Dinks. A BOPS sheet is known to shrink to one-third of its original size in plane, when it is heated above 160 °C. A grid pattern is engraved on one side of the BOPS film with a laser engraver to decrease the thermal shrinkage of the engraved side. The thermal shrinkage of the non-engraved side remains the same and this unbalanced thermal shrinkage causes folding of the structure as the structure shrinks at high temperature. We investigated the self-folding mechanism and characterized how the grid geometry, the grid size, and the power of the laser engraver affect the bending curvature. The developed fabrication process to locally modulate thermomechanical properties of the material by engraving the grid pattern and the demonstrated design methodology to harness the unbalanced thermal shrinkage can be applied to develop complicated self-folding macro/micro structures.

Predicting shrinkage and warpage in injection molding: Towards automatized mold design

Science.gov (United States)

Zwicke, Florian; Behr, Marek; Elgeti, Stefanie

2017-10-01

It is an inevitable part of any plastics molding process that the material undergoes some shrinkage during solidification. Mainly due to unavoidable inhomogeneities in the cooling process, the overall shrinkage cannot be assumed as homogeneous in all volumetric directions. The direct consequence is warpage. The accurate prediction of such shrinkage and warpage effects has been the subject of a considerable amount of research, but it is important to note that this behavior depends greatly on the type of material that is used as well as the process details. Without limiting ourselves to any specific properties of certain materials or process designs, we aim to develop a method for the automatized design of a mold cavity that will produce correctly shaped moldings after solidification. Essentially, this can be stated as a shape optimization problem, where the cavity shape is optimized to fulfill some objective function that measures defects in the molding shape. In order to be able to develop and evaluate such a method, we first require simulation methods for the diffierent steps involved in the injection molding process that can represent the phenomena responsible for shrinkage and warpage ina sufficiently accurate manner. As a starting point, we consider the solidification of purely amorphous materials. In this case, the material slowly transitions from fluid-like to solid-like behavior as it cools down. This behavior is modeled using adjusted viscoelastic material models. Once the material has passed a certain temperature threshold during cooling, any viscous effects are neglected and the behavior is assumed to be fully elastic. Non-linear elastic laws are used to predict shrinkage and warpage that occur after this point. We will present the current state of these simulation methods and show some first approaches towards optimizing the mold cavity shape based on these methods.

Quantitative analyses of shrinkage characteristics of neem ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Quantitative analyses of shrinkage characteristics of neem (Azadirachta indica A. Juss.) wood were carried out. Forty five wood specimens were prepared from the three ecological zones of north eastern Nigeria, viz: sahel savanna, sudan savanna and guinea savanna for the research. The results indicated that the wood ...

Study of Drying Shrinkage Cracking by Lattice Gas Automaton and Environmental Scanning Electron Microscope

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Mier, J.G.M.; Jankovic, D.

2005-01-01

Numerical modeling of moisture flow, drying shrinkage and crack phenomena in cement microstructure, by coupling a Lattice Gas Automaton and a Lattice Fracture Model, highlighted the importance of a shrinkage coefficient (?sh) as the most significant parameter for achieving realistic numerical

Effects of Shrinkage Reducing Agent and Expansive Additive on Mortar Properties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarapon Treesuwan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available This research is to study the effect of mortar mixed with shrinkage reducing agent (polyoxyalkylene alkyl ether type, expansive additive (CaO type, and fly ash (hereinafter “SRA,” “EX,” and “FA,” resp.. Moreover, steam curing was studied to improve the properties of mortar. The plastic shrinkage test was conducted by using the strain gauge embedded at 0.5 cm from the surface according to the ASTM C1579-06 standard within early age followed by the total shrinkage test and compressive strength test. The test results showed that mixing both the EX and SRA increases the plastic enlargement of the mortar during the early age more than using either the EX or SRA solely. The steam curing helps to reduce the plastic shrinkage when the mortar is added with the FA and SRA while adding the EX increases the enlargement compared to the normal curing. When the EX, SRA, and FA are all added to the mortar mixing, great attention should be paid due to the increase of greater enlargement. For the compressive strength view, the steam curing increases the compressive strength in all types of mixture. The steam curing significantly helps increasing the compressive strength of mortar with combination of EX, SRA, and FA. Nevertheless, the XRD and SEM tests explain such enlargement accordingly.

Sparse contrast-source inversion using linear-shrinkage-enhanced inexact Newton method

KAUST Repository

Desmal, Abdulla

2014-07-01

A contrast-source inversion scheme is proposed for microwave imaging of domains with sparse content. The scheme uses inexact Newton and linear shrinkage methods to account for the nonlinearity and ill-posedness of the electromagnetic inverse scattering problem, respectively. Thresholded shrinkage iterations are accelerated using a preconditioning technique. Additionally, during Newton iterations, the weight of the penalty term is reduced consistently with the quadratic convergence of the Newton method to increase accuracy and efficiency. Numerical results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method.

Sparse contrast-source inversion using linear-shrinkage-enhanced inexact Newton method

KAUST Repository

Desmal, Abdulla; Bagci, Hakan

2014-01-01

A contrast-source inversion scheme is proposed for microwave imaging of domains with sparse content. The scheme uses inexact Newton and linear shrinkage methods to account for the nonlinearity and ill-posedness of the electromagnetic inverse scattering problem, respectively. Thresholded shrinkage iterations are accelerated using a preconditioning technique. Additionally, during Newton iterations, the weight of the penalty term is reduced consistently with the quadratic convergence of the Newton method to increase accuracy and efficiency. Numerical results demonstrate the applicability of the proposed method.

Autogenous and drying shrinkage of sodium carbonate activated slag altered by limestone powder incorporation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yuan, B.; Yu, Q.L.; Dainese, E.; Brouwers, H.J.H.

2017-01-01

This paper aims to study the shrinkage mechanism of sodium carbonate activated slag containing limestone powder (LP). The workability, pore structure, reaction kinetics and strength development were characterized. The results show that the autogenous shrinkage increases when the dosage of LP is low

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

OpenAIRE

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

Introduction to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2017-01-01

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

Modified creep and shrinkage prediction model B3 for serviceability limit state analysis of composite slabs

Science.gov (United States)

Gholamhoseini, Alireza

2016-03-01

Relatively little research has been reported on the time-dependent in-service behavior of composite concrete slabs with profiled steel decking as permanent formwork and little guidance is available for calculating long-term deflections. The drying shrinkage profile through the thickness of a composite slab is greatly affected by the impermeable steel deck at the slab soffit, and this has only recently been quantified. This paper presents the results of long-term laboratory tests on composite slabs subjected to both drying shrinkage and sustained loads. Based on laboratory measurements, a design model for the shrinkage strain profile through the thickness of a slab is proposed. The design model is based on some modifications to an existing creep and shrinkage prediction model B3. In addition, an analytical model is developed to calculate the time-dependent deflection of composite slabs taking into account the time-dependent effects of creep and shrinkage. The calculated deflections are shown to be in good agreement with the experimental measurements.

Polymerization stresses in low-shrinkage dental resin composites measured by crack analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Yamamoto, Takatsugu; Kubota, Yu; Momoi, Yasuko; Ferracane, Jack L

2012-09-01

The objective of this study was to compare several dental restoratives currently advertised as low-shrinkage composites (Clearfil Majesty Posterior, Kalore, Reflexions XLS Dentin and Venus Diamond) with a microfill composite (Heliomolar) in terms of polymerization stress, polymerization shrinkage and elastic modulus. Cracks were made at several distances from the edge of a precision cavity in a soda-lime glass disk. The composites were placed into the cavity and lengths of the cracks were measured before and after light curing. Polymerization stresses generated in the glass at 2 and 10 min after the irradiation were calculated from the crack lengths and K(c) of the glass. Polymerization shrinkage and elastic modulus of the composites also were measured at 2 and 10 min after irradiation using a video-imaging device and a nanoindenter, respectively. The data were statistically analyzed by ANOVAs and Tukey's test (pelastic moduli of Clearfil Majesty Posterior and Reflexions XLS Dentin were greatest at 2 and 10 min, respectively. Among the four low-shrinkage composites, two demonstrated significantly reduced polymerization stress compared to Heliomolar, which has previously been shown in in vitro tests to generate low curing stress. Copyright © 2012 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Mathematical model for creep and thermal shrinkage of concrete at high temperature

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bazant, Z.P.

1983-01-01

Based on the existing limited test data, it is possible to set up an approximate constitutive model for creep and shrinkage at temperatures above 100 0 C, up to about 400 0 C. The model presented here describes the effect of various constant temperatures on the creep rate and the rate of aging, similar effects of the specific water content, the creep increase caused by simultaneous changes in moisture content, the thermal volume changes as well as the volume changes caused by changes in moisture content (drying shrinkage or thermal shrinkage), and the effect of pore pressure produced by heating. Generalizations to time-variable stresses and multiaxial stresses are also given. The model should allow more realistic analysis of reactor vessels and containments for accident situations, of concrete structures subjected to fire, of vessels for coal gasification or liquefaction, etc. (orig.)

Transport maps and dimension reduction for Bayesian computation

KAUST Repository

Marzouk, Youssef

2015-01-01

We introduce a new framework for efficient sampling from complex probability distributions, using a combination of optimal transport maps and the Metropolis-Hastings rule. The core idea is to use continuous transportation to transform typical Metropolis proposal mechanisms (e.g., random walks, Langevin methods) into non-Gaussian proposal distributions that can more effectively explore the target density. Our approach adaptively constructs a lower triangular transport map—an approximation of the Knothe-Rosenblatt rearrangement—using information from previous MCMC states, via the solution of an optimization problem. This optimization problem is convex regardless of the form of the target distribution. It is solved efficiently using a Newton method that requires no gradient information from the target probability distribution; the target distribution is instead represented via samples. Sequential updates enable efficient and parallelizable adaptation of the map even for large numbers of samples. We show that this approach uses inexact or truncated maps to produce an adaptive MCMC algorithm that is ergodic for the exact target distribution. Numerical demonstrations on a range of parameter inference problems show order-of-magnitude speedups over standard MCMC techniques, measured by the number of effectively independent samples produced per target density evaluation and per unit of wallclock time. We will also discuss adaptive methods for the construction of transport maps in high dimensions, where use of a non-adapted basis (e.g., a total order polynomial expansion) can become computationally prohibitive. If only samples of the target distribution, rather than density evaluations, are available, then we can construct high-dimensional transformations by composing sparsely parameterized transport maps with rotations of the parameter space. If evaluations of the target density and its gradients are available, then one can exploit the structure of the variational

Transport maps and dimension reduction for Bayesian computation

KAUST Repository

Marzouk, Youssef

2015-01-07

We introduce a new framework for efficient sampling from complex probability distributions, using a combination of optimal transport maps and the Metropolis-Hastings rule. The core idea is to use continuous transportation to transform typical Metropolis proposal mechanisms (e.g., random walks, Langevin methods) into non-Gaussian proposal distributions that can more effectively explore the target density. Our approach adaptively constructs a lower triangular transport map—an approximation of the Knothe-Rosenblatt rearrangement—using information from previous MCMC states, via the solution of an optimization problem. This optimization problem is convex regardless of the form of the target distribution. It is solved efficiently using a Newton method that requires no gradient information from the target probability distribution; the target distribution is instead represented via samples. Sequential updates enable efficient and parallelizable adaptation of the map even for large numbers of samples. We show that this approach uses inexact or truncated maps to produce an adaptive MCMC algorithm that is ergodic for the exact target distribution. Numerical demonstrations on a range of parameter inference problems show order-of-magnitude speedups over standard MCMC techniques, measured by the number of effectively independent samples produced per target density evaluation and per unit of wallclock time. We will also discuss adaptive methods for the construction of transport maps in high dimensions, where use of a non-adapted basis (e.g., a total order polynomial expansion) can become computationally prohibitive. If only samples of the target distribution, rather than density evaluations, are available, then we can construct high-dimensional transformations by composing sparsely parameterized transport maps with rotations of the parameter space. If evaluations of the target density and its gradients are available, then one can exploit the structure of the variational

Shrinkage Approach for Gene Expression Data Analysis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Haman, Jiří; Valenta, Zdeněk

2013-01-01

Roč. 9, č. 3 (2013), s. 2-8 ISSN 1801-5603 Grant - others:UK(CZ) SVV-2013-266517 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : microarray technology * high dimensional data * mean squared error * James-Stein shrinkage estimator * mutual information Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science http://www.ejbi.org/img/ejbi/2013/3/Haman_en.pdf

Four-Phase Dendritic Model for the Prediction of Macrosegregation, Shrinkage Cavity, and Porosity in a 55-Ton Ingot

Science.gov (United States)

Ge, Honghao; Ren, Fengli; Li, Jun; Han, Xiujun; Xia, Mingxu; Li, Jianguo

2017-03-01

A four-phase dendritic model was developed to predict the macrosegregation, shrinkage cavity, and porosity during solidification. In this four-phase dendritic model, some important factors, including dendritic structure for equiaxed crystals, melt convection, crystals sedimentation, nucleation, growth, and shrinkage of solidified phases, were taken into consideration. Furthermore, in this four-phase dendritic model, a modified shrinkage criterion was established to predict shrinkage porosity (microporosity) of a 55-ton industrial Fe-3.3 wt pct C ingot. The predicted macrosegregation pattern and shrinkage cavity shape are in a good agreement with experimental results. The shrinkage cavity has a significant effect on the formation of positive segregation in hot top region, which generally forms during the last stage of ingot casting. The dendritic equiaxed grains also play an important role on the formation of A-segregation. A three-dimensional laminar structure of A-segregation in industrial ingot was, for the first time, predicted by using a 3D case simulation.

Bayesian Lagrangian Data Assimilation and Drifter Deployment Strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Dutt, A.; Lermusiaux, P. F. J.

2017-12-01

Ocean currents transport a variety of natural (e.g. water masses, phytoplankton, zooplankton, sediments, etc.) and man-made materials and other objects (e.g. pollutants, floating debris, search and rescue, etc.). Lagrangian Coherent Structures (LCSs) or the most influential/persistent material lines in a flow, provide a robust approach to characterize such Lagrangian transports and organize classic trajectories. Using the flow-map stochastic advection and a dynamically-orthogonal decomposition, we develop uncertainty prediction schemes for both Eulerian and Lagrangian variables. We then extend our Bayesian Gaussian Mixture Model (GMM)-DO filter to a joint Eulerian-Lagrangian Bayesian data assimilation scheme. The resulting nonlinear filter allows the simultaneous non-Gaussian estimation of Eulerian variables (e.g. velocity, temperature, salinity, etc.) and Lagrangian variables (e.g. drifter/float positions, trajectories, LCSs, etc.). Its results are showcased using a double-gyre flow with a random frequency, a stochastic flow past a cylinder, and realistic ocean examples. We further show how our Bayesian mutual information and adaptive sampling equations provide a rigorous efficient methodology to plan optimal drifter deployment strategies and predict the optimal times, locations, and types of measurements to be collected.

Effects of Prepolymerized Particle Size and Polymerization Kinetics on Volumetric Shrinkage of Dental Modeling Resins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tae-Yub Kwon

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Dental modeling resins have been developed for use in areas where highly precise resin structures are needed. The manufacturers claim that these polymethyl methacrylate/methyl methacrylate (PMMA/MMA resins show little or no shrinkage after polymerization. This study examined the polymerization shrinkage of five dental modeling resins as well as one temporary PMMA/MMA resin (control. The morphology and the particle size of the prepolymerized PMMA powders were investigated by scanning electron microscopy and laser diffraction particle size analysis, respectively. Linear polymerization shrinkage strains of the resins were monitored for 20 minutes using a custom-made linometer, and the final values (at 20 minutes were converted into volumetric shrinkages. The final volumetric shrinkage values for the modeling resins were statistically similar (P>0.05 or significantly larger (P<0.05 than that of the control resin and were related to the polymerization kinetics (P<0.05 rather than the PMMA bead size (P=0.335. Therefore, the optimal control of the polymerization kinetics seems to be more important for producing high-precision resin structures rather than the use of dental modeling resins.

Durability and Shrinkage Characteristics of Self-Compacting Concretes Containing Recycled Coarse and/or Fine Aggregates

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehmet Gesoglu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses durability and shrinkage performance of the self-compacting concretes (SCCs in which natural coarse aggregate (NCA and/or natural fine aggregate (NFA were replaced by recycled coarse aggregate (RCA and/or recycled fine aggregate (RFA, respectively. A total of 16 SCCs were produced and classified into four series, each of which included four mixes designed with two water to binder (w/b ratios of 0.3 and 0.43 and two silica fume replacement levels of 0 and 10%. Durability properties of SCCs were tested for rapid chloride penetration, water sorptivity, gas permeability, and water permeability at 56 days. Also, drying shrinkage accompanied by the water loss and restrained shrinkage of SCCs were monitored over 56 days of drying period. Test results revealed that incorporating recycled coarse and/or fine aggregates aggravated the durability properties of SCCs tested in this study. The drying shrinkage and restrained shrinkage cracking of recycled aggregate (RA concretes had significantly poorer performance than natural aggregate (NA concretes. The time of cracking greatly prolonged as the RAs were used along with the increase in water/binder ratio.

Combined Use of Shrinkage Reducing Admixture and CaO in Cement Based Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Tittarelli, Francesca; Giosuè, Chiara; Monosi, Saveria

2017-10-01

The combined addition of a Shrinkage-Reducing Admixture (SRA) with a CaO-based expansive agent (CaO) has been found to have a synergistic effect to improve the dimensional stability of cement based materials. In this work, aimed to further investigate the effect, mortar and self-compacting concrete specimens were prepared either without admixtures, as reference, or with SRA alone and/or CaO. Their performance was compared in terms of compressive strength and free shrinkage measurements. Results showed that the synergistic effect in reducing shrinkage is confirmed in the specimens manufactured with SRA and CaO. In order to clarify this phenomenon, the effect of SRA on the hydration of CaO as well as cement was evaluated through different techniques. The obtained results show that SRA induces a finer microstructure of the CaO hydration products and a retarding effect on the microstructure development of cement based materials. A more deformable mortar or concrete, due to the delay in microstructure development by SRA, coupled with a finer microstructure of CaO hydration products could allow higher early expansion, which might contribute in contrasting better the successive drying shrinkage.

Experimental evaluation and simulation of volumetric shrinkage and warpage on polymeric composite reinforced with short natural fibers

Science.gov (United States)

Santos, Jonnathan D.; Fajardo, Jorge I.; Cuji, Alvaro R.; García, Jaime A.; Garzón, Luis E.; López, Luis M.

2015-09-01

A polymeric natural fiber-reinforced composite is developed by extrusion and injection molding process. The shrinkage and warpage of high-density polyethylene reinforced with short natural fibers of Guadua angustifolia Kunth are analyzed by experimental measurements and computer simulations. Autodesk Moldflow® and Solid Works® are employed to simulate both volumetric shrinkage and warpage of injected parts at different configurations: 0 wt.%, 20 wt.%, 30 wt.% and 40 wt.% reinforcing on shrinkage and warpage behavior of polymer composite. Become evident the restrictive effect of reinforcing on the volumetric shrinkage and warpage of injected parts. The results indicate that volumetric shrinkage of natural composite is reduced up to 58% with fiber increasing, whereas the warpage shows a reduction form 79% to 86% with major fiber content. These results suggest that it is a highly beneficial use of natural fibers to improve the assembly properties of polymeric natural fiber-reinforced composites.

Reoxygenation of hypoxic cells by tumor shrinkage during irradiation. A computer simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kocher, M.; Treuer, H.

1995-01-01

A 3-dimensional computer simulation was developed in order to estimate the impact of tumor shrinkage on reoxygenation of chronic hypoxic tumor cells during a full course of fractionated irradiation. The growth of a small tumor situated in a vascularized stroma with 350 capillary cross-sections/mm 3 which were displaced by the growing tumor was simulated. Tumors contained 10 4 cells when irradiation started, intrinsic radiosensitivity was set to either low (α=0.3 Gy -1 , β=0.03 Gy -2 ) or high (α=0.4 Gy -1 , β=0.04 Gy -2 ) values. Oxygen enhancement ratio was 3.0, potential tumor doubling time T pot =1, 2 or 5 days. A simulated fractionated radiotherapy was carried out with daily fractions of 2.0 Gy, total dose 50 to 70 Gy. The presence or absence of factors preventing tumor cord shrinkage was also included. During the growth phase, all tumors developed a necrotic core with a hypoxic cell fraction of 25% under these conditions. During irradiation, the slower growing tumors (T pot =2 to 5 days) showed complete reoxygenation of the hypoxic cells after 30 to 40 Gy independent from radiosensitivity, undisturbed tumor shrinkage provided. If shrinkage was prevented, the hypoxic fraction rose to 100% after 30 to 50 Gy. Local tumor control, defined as the destruction of all clonogenic and hypoxic tumor cells increased by 20 to 100% due to reoxygenation and 50 Gy were enough in order to sterilize the tumors in these cases. In the fast growing tumors (T pot =1 day), reoxygenation was only observed in the case of high radiosensitivity and undisturbed tumor shrinkage. In these tumors reoxygenation increased the control rates by up to 60%. (orig./MG) [de

Reduction of cracking and shrinkage in compressed clay beams during dying

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lakho, N.A.; Zardari, M.A.; Memon, N.A.

2016-01-01

Uncontrolled evaporation of moisture from compressed clay beams can cause surface cracks, resulting in reduction of strength. This paper presents various treatments applied to clay beams during the process of casting, compacting and drying in order to curtail the possibility of cracking and to decrease percentage of drying shrinkage. Following treatments were applied to the beams during casting and drying: (i) a steel plate and double layer of plastic sheet was provided between the beam and the plank, (ii) the beam was enveloped with a propylene fabric sheet during casting and (iii) beams were covered with plastic sheet during drying. Using these treatments, the clay beams were cast and compacted at various intensities of compaction. The results show that the drying shrinkage was reduced to minimum and the cracks were curtailed. The rate of drying shrinkage was decreased depending upon the level of compaction. Thus at the higher degree of compaction, more density of clay beams was achieved, which resulted in higher degree of compressive strength in baked and unbaked state. (author)

Maximum entropy perception-action space: a Bayesian model of eye movement selection

OpenAIRE

Colas , Francis; Bessière , Pierre; Girard , Benoît

2010-01-01

International audience; In this article, we investigate the issue of the selection of eye movements in a free-eye Multiple Object Tracking task. We propose a Bayesian model of retinotopic maps with a complex logarithmic mapping. This model is structured in two parts: a representation of the visual scene, and a decision model based on the representation. We compare different decision models based on different features of the representation and we show that taking into account uncertainty helps...

A modified GO-FLOW methodology with common cause failure based on Discrete Time Bayesian Network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, Dongming; Wang, Zili; Liu, Linlin; Ren, Yi

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Identification of particular causes of failure for common cause failure analysis. • Comparison two formalisms (GO-FLOW and Discrete Time Bayesian network) and establish the correlation between them. • Mapping the GO-FLOW model into Bayesian network model. • Calculated GO-FLOW model with common cause failures based on DTBN. - Abstract: The GO-FLOW methodology is a success-oriented system reliability modelling technique for multi-phase missions involving complex time-dependent, multi-state and common cause failure (CCF) features. However, the analysis algorithm cannot easily handle the multiple shared signals and CCFs. In addition, the simulative algorithm is time consuming when vast multi-state components exist in the model, and the multiple time points of phased mission problems increases the difficulty of the analysis method. In this paper, the Discrete Time Bayesian Network (DTBN) and the GO-FLOW methodology are integrated by the unified mapping rules. Based on these rules, the multi operators can be mapped into DTBN followed by, a complete GO-FLOW model with complex characteristics (e.g. phased mission, multi-state, and CCF) can be converted to the isomorphic DTBN and easily analyzed by utilizing the DTBN. With mature algorithms and tools, the multi-phase mission reliability parameter can be efficiently obtained via the proposed approach without considering the shared signals and the various complex logic operation. Meanwhile, CCF can also arise in the computing process.

Bayesian phylogeography finds its roots.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Philippe Lemey

2009-09-01

Full Text Available As a key factor in endemic and epidemic dynamics, the geographical distribution of viruses has been frequently interpreted in the light of their genetic histories. Unfortunately, inference of historical dispersal or migration patterns of viruses has mainly been restricted to model-free heuristic approaches that provide little insight into the temporal setting of the spatial dynamics. The introduction of probabilistic models of evolution, however, offers unique opportunities to engage in this statistical endeavor. Here we introduce a Bayesian framework for inference, visualization and hypothesis testing of phylogeographic history. By implementing character mapping in a Bayesian software that samples time-scaled phylogenies, we enable the reconstruction of timed viral dispersal patterns while accommodating phylogenetic uncertainty. Standard Markov model inference is extended with a stochastic search variable selection procedure that identifies the parsimonious descriptions of the diffusion process. In addition, we propose priors that can incorporate geographical sampling distributions or characterize alternative hypotheses about the spatial dynamics. To visualize the spatial and temporal information, we summarize inferences using virtual globe software. We describe how Bayesian phylogeography compares with previous parsimony analysis in the investigation of the influenza A H5N1 origin and H5N1 epidemiological linkage among sampling localities. Analysis of rabies in West African dog populations reveals how virus diffusion may enable endemic maintenance through continuous epidemic cycles. From these analyses, we conclude that our phylogeographic framework will make an important asset in molecular epidemiology that can be easily generalized to infer biogeogeography from genetic data for many organisms.

Development of high shrinkage polyethylene terephthalate (PET) shape memory polymer tendons for concrete crack closure

Science.gov (United States)

Teall, Oliver; Pilegis, Martins; Sweeney, John; Gough, Tim; Thompson, Glen; Jefferson, Anthony; Lark, Robert; Gardner, Diane

2017-04-01

The shrinkage force exerted by restrained shape memory polymers (SMPs) can potentially be used to close cracks in structural concrete. This paper describes the physical processing and experimental work undertaken to develop high shrinkage die-drawn polyethylene terephthalate (PET) SMP tendons for use within a crack closure system. The extrusion and die-drawing procedure used to manufacture a series of PET tendon samples is described. The results from a set of restrained shrinkage tests, undertaken at differing activation temperatures, are also presented along with the mechanical properties of the most promising samples. The stress developed within the tendons is found to be related to the activation temperature, the cross-sectional area and to the draw rate used during manufacture. Comparisons with commercially-available PET strip samples used in previous research are made, demonstrating an increase in restrained shrinkage stress by a factor of two for manufactured PET filament samples.

Numerical Simulation on Open Wellbore Shrinkage and Casing Equivalent Stress in Bedded Salt Rock Stratum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jianjun Liu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Most salt rock has interbed of mudstone in China. Owing to the enormous difference of mechanical properties between the mudstone interbed and salt rock, the stress-strain and creep behaviors of salt rock are significantly influenced by neighboring mudstone interbed. In order to identify the rules of wellbore shrinkage and casings equivalent stress in bedded salt rock stratum, three-dimensional finite difference models were established. The effects of thickness and elasticity modulus of mudstone interbed on the open wellbore shrinkage and equivalent stress of casing after cementing operation were studied, respectively. The results indicate that the shrinkage of open wellbore and equivalent stress of casings decreases with the increase of mudstone interbed thickness. The increasing of elasticity modulus will reduce the shrinkage of open wellbore and casing equivalent stress. Research results can provide the scientific basis for the design of mud density and casing strength.

A thermal active restrained shrinkage ring test to study the early age concrete behaviour of massive structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Briffaut, M.; Benboudjema, F.; Torrenti, J.M.; Nahas, G.

2011-01-01

In massive concrete structures, cracking may occur during hardening, especially if autogenous and thermal strains are restrained. The concrete permeability due to this cracking may rise significantly and thus increase leakage (in tank, nuclear containment...) and reduce the durability. The restrained shrinkage ring test is used to study the early age concrete behaviour (delayed strains evolution and cracking). This test shows, at 20 o C and without drying, for a concrete mix which is representative of a French nuclear power plant containment vessel (w/c ratio equal to 0.57), that the amplitude of autogenous shrinkage (about 40 μm/m for the studied concrete mix) is not high enough to cause cracking. Indeed, in this configuration, thermal shrinkage is not significant, whereas this is a major concern for massive structures. Therefore, an active test has been developed to study cracking due to restrained thermal shrinkage. This test is an evolution of the classical restrained shrinkage ring test. It allows to take into account both autogenous and thermal shrinkages. Its principle is to create the thermal strain effects by increasing the temperature of the brass ring (by a fluid circulation) in order to expand it. With this test, the early age cracking due to restrained shrinkage, the influence of reinforcement and construction joints have been experimentally studied. It shows that, as expected, reinforcement leads to an increase of the number of cracks but a decrease of crack widths. Moreover, cracking occurs preferentially at the construction joint.

A Bayesian Network Approach to Ontology Mapping

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Pan, Rong; Ding, Zhongli; Yu, Yang; Peng, Yun

2005-01-01

This paper presents our ongoing effort on developing a principled methodology for automatic ontology mapping based on BayesOWL, a probabilistic framework we developed for modeling uncertainty in semantic web...

Analysis of Shrinkage on Thick Plate Part using Genetic Algorithm

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Najihah S.N.

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Injection moulding is the most widely used processes in manufacturing plastic products. Since the quality of injection improves plastic parts are mostly influenced by process conditions, the method to determine the optimum process conditions becomes the key to improving the part quality. This paper presents a systematic methodology to analyse the shrinkage of the thick plate part during the injection moulding process. Genetic Algorithm (GA method was proposed to optimise the process parameters that would result in optimal solutions of optimisation goals. Using the GA, the shrinkage of the thick plate part was improved by 39.1% in parallel direction and 17.21% in the normal direction of melt flow.

Ultra low-K shrinkage behavior when under electron beam in a scanning electron microscope

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lorut, F.; Imbert, G. [ST Microelectronics, 850 rue Jean Monnet, 38926 Crolles Cedex (France); Roggero, A. [Centre National d' Etudes Spatiales, 18 Avenue Edouard Belin, 31400 Toulouse (France)

2013-08-28

In this paper, we investigate the tendency of porous low-K dielectrics (also named Ultra Low-K, ULK) behavior to shrink when exposed to the electron beam of a scanning electron microscope. Various experimental electron beam conditions have been used for irradiating ULK thin films, and the resulting shrinkage has been measured through use of an atomic force microscope tool. We report the shrinkage to be a fast, cumulative, and dose dependent effect. Correlation of the shrinkage with incident electron beam energy loss has also been evidenced. The chemical modification of the ULK films within the interaction volume has been demonstrated, with a densification of the layer and a loss of carbon and hydrogen elements being observed.

Bayesian biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2012-01-01

The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

Conjunction analysis and propositional logic in fMRI data analysis using Bayesian statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudert, Thomas; Lohmann, Gabriele

2008-12-01

To evaluate logical expressions over different effects in data analyses using the general linear model (GLM) and to evaluate logical expressions over different posterior probability maps (PPMs). In functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data analysis, the GLM was applied to estimate unknown regression parameters. Based on the GLM, Bayesian statistics can be used to determine the probability of conjunction, disjunction, implication, or any other arbitrary logical expression over different effects or contrast. For second-level inferences, PPMs from individual sessions or subjects are utilized. These PPMs can be combined to a logical expression and its probability can be computed. The methods proposed in this article are applied to data from a STROOP experiment and the methods are compared to conjunction analysis approaches for test-statistics. The combination of Bayesian statistics with propositional logic provides a new approach for data analyses in fMRI. Two different methods are introduced for propositional logic: the first for analyses using the GLM and the second for common inferences about different probability maps. The methods introduced extend the idea of conjunction analysis to a full propositional logic and adapt it from test-statistics to Bayesian statistics. The new approaches allow inferences that are not possible with known standard methods in fMRI. (c) 2008 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

Experimental drying shrinkage of hardened cement pastes as a function of relative humidity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Kurt Kielsgaard; Baroghel, V.B.

1996-01-01

The results of an experimental study concerning drying shrinkage measured as a function of relative humidity on thin specimens of mature hardened cement pastes are presented. The results obtained at two laboratories are compared.......The results of an experimental study concerning drying shrinkage measured as a function of relative humidity on thin specimens of mature hardened cement pastes are presented. The results obtained at two laboratories are compared....

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

elicitation methodology is developed and applied to the real-world test case in order to provide a road map for the use of fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater modeling applications.

Influence of Aggregate Wettability with Different Lithology Aggregates on Concrete Drying Shrinkage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuanchen Guo

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The correlation of the wettability of different lithology aggregates and the drying shrinkage of concrete materials is studied, and some influential factors such as wettability and wetting angle are analyzed. A mercury porosimeter is used to measure the porosities of different lithology aggregates accurately, and the pore size ranges that significantly affect the drying shrinkage of different lithology aggregate concretes are confirmed. The pore distribution curve of the different coarse aggregates is also measured through a statistical method, and the contact angle of different coarse aggregates and concrete is calculated according to the linear fitting relationship. Research shows that concrete strength is determined by aggregate strength. Aggregate wettability is not directly correlated with concrete strength, but wettability significantly affects concrete drying shrinkage. In all types’ pores, the greatest impacts on wettability are capillary pores and gel pores, especially for the pores of the size locating 2.5–50 nm and 50–100 nm two ranges.

Temperature dependence of autogenous shrinkage of silica fume cement pastes with a very low water–binder ratio

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maruyama, I., E-mail: ippei@dali.nuac.nagoya-u.ac.jp [Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, ES Building, No. 539, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8603 (Japan); Teramoto, A. [Graduate School of Environmental Studies, Nagoya University, Faculty of Engineering, ES Building, No. 546, Furo-cho, Chikusa-ku, Nagoya 464-8603 (Japan)

2013-08-15

Ultra-high-strength concrete with a large unit cement content undergoes considerable temperature increase inside members due to hydration heat, leading to a higher risk of internal cracking. Hence, the temperature dependence of autogenous shrinkage of cement pastes made with silica fume premixed cement with a water–binder ratio of 0.15 was studied extensively. Development of autogenous shrinkage showed different behaviors before and after the inflection point, and dependence on the temperature after mixing and subsequent temperature histories. The difference in autogenous shrinkage behavior poses problems for winter construction because autogenous shrinkage may increase with decrease in temperature after mixing before the inflection point and with increase in temperature inside concrete members with large cross sections.

Temperature dependence of autogenous shrinkage of silica fume cement pastes with a very low water–binder ratio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Maruyama, I.; Teramoto, A.

2013-01-01

Ultra-high-strength concrete with a large unit cement content undergoes considerable temperature increase inside members due to hydration heat, leading to a higher risk of internal cracking. Hence, the temperature dependence of autogenous shrinkage of cement pastes made with silica fume premixed cement with a water–binder ratio of 0.15 was studied extensively. Development of autogenous shrinkage showed different behaviors before and after the inflection point, and dependence on the temperature after mixing and subsequent temperature histories. The difference in autogenous shrinkage behavior poses problems for winter construction because autogenous shrinkage may increase with decrease in temperature after mixing before the inflection point and with increase in temperature inside concrete members with large cross sections

Modelling of JET diagnostics using Bayesian Graphical Models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Svensson, J. [IPP Greifswald, Greifswald (Germany); Ford, O. [Imperial College, London (United Kingdom); McDonald, D.; Hole, M.; Nessi, G. von; Meakins, A.; Brix, M.; Thomsen, H.; Werner, A.; Sirinelli, A.

2011-07-01

The mapping between physics parameters (such as densities, currents, flows, temperatures etc) defining the plasma 'state' under a given model and the raw observations of each plasma diagnostic will 1) depend on the particular physics model used, 2) is inherently probabilistic, from uncertainties on both observations and instrumental aspects of the mapping, such as calibrations, instrument functions etc. A flexible and principled way of modelling such interconnected probabilistic systems is through so called Bayesian graphical models. Being an amalgam between graph theory and probability theory, Bayesian graphical models can simulate the complex interconnections between physics models and diagnostic observations from multiple heterogeneous diagnostic systems, making it relatively easy to optimally combine the observations from multiple diagnostics for joint inference on parameters of the underlying physics model, which in itself can be represented as part of the graph. At JET about 10 diagnostic systems have to date been modelled in this way, and has lead to a number of new results, including: the reconstruction of the flux surface topology and q-profiles without any specific equilibrium assumption, using information from a number of different diagnostic systems; profile inversions taking into account the uncertainties in the flux surface positions and a substantial increase in accuracy of JET electron density and temperature profiles, including improved pedestal resolution, through the joint analysis of three diagnostic systems. It is believed that the Bayesian graph approach could potentially be utilised for very large sets of diagnostics, providing a generic data analysis framework for nuclear fusion experiments, that would be able to optimally utilize the information from multiple diagnostics simultaneously, and where the explicit graph representation of the connections to underlying physics models could be used for sophisticated model testing. This

How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

2013-01-01

Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

Photo-crosslinkable cyanoacrylate bioadhesive: shrinkage kinetics, dynamic mechanical properties, and biocompatibility of adhesives containing TMPTMA and POSS nanostructures as crosslinking agents.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghasaban, S; Atai, M; Imani, M; Zandi, M; Shokrgozar, M-A

2011-11-01

The study investigates the photo-polymerization shrinkage behavior, dynamic mechanical properties, and biocompatibility of cyanoacrylate bioadhesives containing POSS nanostructures and TMPTMA as crosslinking agents. Adhesives containing 2-octyl cyanoacrylate (2-OCA) and different percentages of POSS nanostructures and TMPTMA as crosslinking agents were prepared. The 1-phenyl-1, 2-propanedione (PPD) was incorporated as photo-initiator into the adhesive in 1.5, 3, and 4 wt %. The shrinkage strain of the specimens was measured using bonded-disk technique. Shrinkage strain, shrinkage strain rate, maximum and time at maximum shrinkage strain rate were measured and compared. Mechanical properties of the adhesives were also studied using dynamic mechanical thermal analysis (DMTA). Biocompatibility of the adhesives was examined by MTT method. The results showed that shrinkage strain increased with increasing the initiator concentration up to 3 wt % in POSS-containing and 1.5 wt % in TMPTMA-containing specimens and plateaued out at higher concentrations. By increasing the crosslinking agent, shrinkage strain, and shrinkage strain rate increased and the time at maximum shrinkage strain rate decreased. The study indicates that the incorporation of crosslinking agents into the cyanoacrylate adhesives resulted in improved mechanical properties. Preliminary MTT studies also revealed better biocompatibility profile for the adhesives containing crosslinking agents comparing to the neat specimens. Copyright © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

The Influence of Water Sorption of Dental Light-Cured Composites on Shrinkage Stress

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kinga Bociong

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The contraction stress generated during the photopolymerization of resin dental composites is the major disadvantage. The water sorption in the oral environment should counteract the contraction stress. The purpose was to evaluate the influence of the water sorption of composite materials on polymerization shrinkage stress generated at the restoration-tooth interface. The following materials were tested: Filtek Ultimate, Gradia Direct LoFlo, Heliomolar Flow, Tetric EvoCeram, Tetric EvoCeram Bulk Fill, Tetric EvoFlow, Tetric EvoFlow Bulk Fill, X-tra Base, Venus BulkFil, and Ceram.X One. The shrinkage stress was measured immediately after curing and after: 0.5 h, 24 h, 72 h, 96 h, 168 h, 240 h, 336 h, 504 h, 672 h, and 1344 h by means of photoelastic study. Moreover, water sorption and solubility were evaluated. Material samples were weighted on scale in time intervals to measure the water absorbency and the dynamic of this process. The tested materials during polymerization generated shrinkage stresses ranging from 6.3 MPa to 12.5 MPa. Upon water conditioning (56 days, the decrease in shrinkage strain (not less than 48% was observed. The decrease in value stress in time is material-dependent.

Ultrasonic assessment of shrinkage type discontinuities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubber, John

2010-01-01

This investigation into ultrasonic internal discontinuities is intended to demonstrate typical examples of internal 'shrinkage' type discontinuities and its connection with the casting suitability, integrity and reliability in service. This type of discontinuity can be misinterpreted by ultrasonic technicians and can lead to the rejection of castings unnecessarily, due to the mis-characterization of fine shrinkage - discrete porosity. The samples for this investigation were taken from thirty ton heavy section ductile iron mill flange castings, manufactured by Graham Campbell Ferrum International. The sampled area was of discontinuities that were recorded for sizing on an area due to loss of back wall echo, but had acceptable reflectivity. A comparative sample was taken adjacent to the area of discrete porosity. The discontinuities found by this investigation are of a 'spongy' type, gaseous in appearance and are surrounded by acoustically sound material. All discontinuities discussed in this paper are centrally located in the through thickness of the casting. The porous nature of this type of discontinuity consisting of approximately 80-90% metal has its own residual strength, as indicated by the proof stress results which reveal a residual strength of up to 50-60% of that of the unaffected area of the casting. The affected areas are elliptical in shape and vary in density and through thickness throughout.

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Regional Brain Shrinkage over Two Years: Individual Differences and Effects of Pro-Inflammatory Genetic Polymorphisms

Science.gov (United States)

Persson, N.; Ghisletta, P.; Dahle, C.L.; Bender, A.R.; Yang, Y.; Yuan, P.; Daugherty, A.M.; Raz, N.

2014-01-01

We examined regional changes in brain volume in healthy adults (N = 167, age 19-79 years at baseline; N = 90 at follow-up) over approximately two years. With latent change score models, we evaluated mean change and individual differences in rates of change in 10 anatomically-defined and manually-traced regions of interest (ROIs): lateral prefrontal cortex (LPFC), orbital frontal cortex (OF), prefrontal white matter (PFw), hippocampus (HC), parahippocampal gyrus (PhG), caudate nucleus (Cd), putamen (Pt), insula (In), cerebellar hemispheres (CbH), and primary visual cortex (VC). Significant mean shrinkage was observed in the HC, CbH, In, OF, and the PhG, and individual differences in change were noted in all regions, except the OF. Pro-inflammatory genetic variants mediated shrinkage in PhG and CbH. Carriers of two T alleles of interleukin-1β (IL-1βC-511T, rs16944) and a T allele of methylenetetrahydrofolate reductase (MTHFRC677T, rs1801133) polymorphisms showed increased PhG shrinkage. No effects of a pro-inflammatory polymorphism for C-reactive protein (CRP-286C>A>T, rs3091244) or apolipoprotein (APOE) ε4 allele were noted. These results replicate the pattern of brain shrinkage observed in previous studies, with a notable exception of the LPFC thus casting doubt on the unique importance of prefrontal cortex in aging. Larger baseline volumes of CbH and In were associated with increased shrinkage, in conflict with the brain reserve hypothesis. Contrary to previous reports, we observed no significant linear effects of age and hypertension on regional brain shrinkage. Our findings warrant further investigation of the effects of neuroinflammation on structural brain change throughout the lifespan. PMID:25264227

Effects of molecular structure of the resins on the volumetric shrinkage and the mechanical strength of dental restorative composites.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, L U; Kim, J W; Kim, C K

2006-09-01

To prepare a dental composite that has a low amount of curing shrinkage and excellent mechanical strength, various 2,2-bis[4-(2-hydroxy-3-methacryloyloxy propoxy) phenyl] propane (Bis-GMA) derivatives were synthesized via molecular structure design, and afterward, properties of their mixtures were explored. Bis-GMA derivatives, which were obtained by substituting methyl groups for hydrogen on the phenyl ring in the Bis-GMA, exhibited lower curing shrinkage than Bis-GMA, whereas their viscosities were higher than that of Bis-GMA. Other Bis-GMA derivatives, which contained a glycidyl methacrylate as a molecular end group exhibited reduced curing shrinkage and viscosity. Methoxy substitution for hydroxyl groups on the Bis-GMA derivatives was performed for the further reduction of the viscosity and curing shrinkage. Various resin mixtures, which had the same viscosity as the commercial one, were prepared, and their curing shrinkage was examined. A resin mixture containing 2,2-bis[3,5-dimethyl, 4-(2-methoxy-3-methacryloyloxy propoxy) phenyl] propane] (TMBis-M-GMA) as a base resin and 4-tert-butylphenoxy-2-methyoxypropyl methacrylate (t-BP-M-GMA) as a diluent exhibited the lowest curing shrinkage among them. The composite prepared from this resin mixture also exhibited the lowest curing shrinkage along with enhanced mechanical properties.

A Mesoscopic Simulation for the Early-Age Shrinkage Cracking Process of High Performance Concrete in Bridge Engineering

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Guodong Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available On a mesoscopic level, high performance concrete (HPC was assumed to be a heterogeneous composite material consisting of aggregates, mortar, and pores. The concrete mesoscopic structure model had been established based on CT image reconstruction. By combining this model with continuum mechanics, damage mechanics, and fracture mechanics, a relatively complete system for concrete mesoscopic mechanics analysis was established to simulate the process of early-age shrinkage cracking in HPC. This process was based on the dispersion crack model. The results indicated that the interface between the aggregate and mortar was the crack point caused by shrinkage cracks in HPC. The locations of early-age shrinkage cracks in HPC were associated with the spacing and the size of the aggregate particle. However, the shrinkage deformation size of the mortar was related to the scope of concrete cracking and was independent of the crack position. Whereas lower water to cement ratios can improve the early strength of concrete, this ratio cannot control early-age shrinkage cracks in HPC.

Conjugation of diisocyanate side chains to dimethacrylate reduces polymerization shrinkage and increases the hardness of composite resins.

Science.gov (United States)

Jan, Yih-Dean; Lee, Bor-Shiunn; Lin, Chun-Pin; Tseng, Wan-Yu

2014-04-01

Polymerization shrinkage is one of the main causes of dental restoration failure. This study tried to conjugate two diisocyanate side chains to dimethacrylate resins in order to reduce polymerization shrinkage and increase the hardness of composite resins. Diisocyanate, 2-hydroxyethyl methacrylate, and bisphenol A dimethacrylate were reacted in different ratios to form urethane-modified new resin matrices, and then mixed with 50 wt.% silica fillers. The viscosities of matrices, polymerization shrinkage, surface hardness, and degrees of conversion of experimental composite resins were then evaluated and compared with a non-modified control group. The viscosities of resin matrices increased with increasing diisocyanate side chain density. Polymerization shrinkage and degree of conversion, however, decreased with increasing diisocyanate side chain density. The surface hardness of all diisocyanate-modified groups was equal to or significantly higher than that of the control group. Conjugation of diisocyanate side chains to dimethacrylate represents an effective means of reducing polymerization shrinkage and increasing the surface hardness of dental composite resins. Copyright © 2012. Published by Elsevier B.V.

SHRINKAGE REDUCTION AND CRACK PREVENTION OF ALKALI-ACTIVATED PHOSPHOROUS SLAG CEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanan Wang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available The effects of fly ash, calcium oxide and polypropylene fiber on the physical and mechanical properties, shrinkage and cracking behaviors of alkali-activated phosphorous slag cement (AA-PS-C were studied. The results show that replacing 10-15% phosphorous slag by fly ash and adding calcium oxide as an expansive agent reduce the shrinkage of AA-PS-C. Fly ash will increase the flexural strength, although the compressive strength will be slightly decreased, while the calcium oxide expansive agent coated with aluminum stearate will slightly shorten the setting time and reduce the strength. Adding polypropylene fiber can greatly increase the crack-resistance of AA-PS-C.

Evaluation of the polymerization shrinkage of experimental flowable composite resins through optical coherence tomography

Science.gov (United States)

Carneiro, Vanda S. M.; Mota, Cláudia C. B. O.; Souza, Alex F.; Cajazeira, Marlus R. R.; Gerbi, Marleny E. M. M.; Gomes, Anderson S. L.

2018-02-01

This study evaluated the polymerization shrinkage of two experimental flowable composite resins (CR) with different proportions of Urethane dimethacrylate (UDMA)/triethylene glycol dimethacrylate (TEGDMA) monomers in the organic matrix (50:50 and 60:40, respectively). A commercially available flowable CR, Tetric N-Flow (Ivoclair Vivadent, Liechtenstein, Germany), was employed as the control group. The resins were inserted in a cylindrical teflon mold (7 mm diameter, 0.6 mm height) and scanned with OCT before photoactivation, immediately after and 15 minutes after light-curing (Radii-Cal, SDI, Australia, 1,200 mW/cm2 ) exposure. A Callisto SD-OCT system (Thorlabs Inc, USA), operating at 930 nm central wavelength was employed for imaging acquisition. Cross-sectional OCT images were captured with 8 mm transverse scanning (2000x512 matrix), and processed by the ImageJ software, for comparison between the scanning times and between groups. Pearson correlation showed significant shrinkage for all groups in each time analyzed. Kruskal-Wallis test showed greater polymerization shrinkage for the 50:50 UDMA/TEGDMA group (p=0.001), followed by the control group (p=0.018). TEGDMA concentration was proportionally related to the polymerization shrinkage of the flowable composite resins.

Fast gradient-based methods for Bayesian reconstruction of transmission and emission PET images

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mumcuglu, E.U.; Leahy, R.; Zhou, Z.; Cherry, S.R.

1994-01-01

The authors describe conjugate gradient algorithms for reconstruction of transmission and emission PET images. The reconstructions are based on a Bayesian formulation, where the data are modeled as a collection of independent Poisson random variables and the image is modeled using a Markov random field. A conjugate gradient algorithm is used to compute a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate of the image by maximizing over the posterior density. To ensure nonnegativity of the solution, a penalty function is used to convert the problem to one of unconstrained optimization. Preconditioners are used to enhance convergence rates. These methods generally achieve effective convergence in 15--25 iterations. Reconstructions are presented of an 18 FDG whole body scan from data collected using a Siemens/CTI ECAT931 whole body system. These results indicate significant improvements in emission image quality using the Bayesian approach, in comparison to filtered backprojection, particularly when reprojections of the MAP transmission image are used in place of the standard attenuation correction factors

Investigation on Failures of Composite Beam and Substrate Concrete due to Drying Shrinkage Property of Repair Materials

Science.gov (United States)

Pattnaik, Rashmi Ranjan

2017-06-01

A Finite Element Analysis (FEA) and an experimental study was conducted on composite beam of repair material and substrate concrete to investigate the failures of the composite beam due to drying shrinkage property of the repair materials. In FEA, the stress distribution in the composite beam due to two concentrate load and shrinkage of repair materials were investigated in addition to the deflected shape of the composite beam. The stress distributions and load deflection shapes of the finite element model were investigated to aid in analysis of the experimental findings. In the experimental findings, the mechanical properties such as compressive strength, split tensile strength, flexural strength, and load-deflection curves were studied in addition to slant shear bond strength, drying shrinkage and failure patterns of the composite beam specimens. Flexure test was conducted to simulate tensile stress at the interface between the repair material and substrate concrete. The results of FEA were used to analyze the experimental results. It was observed that the repair materials with low drying shrinkage are showing compatible failure in the flexure test of the composite beam and deform adequately in the load deflection curves. Also, the flexural strength of the composite beam with low drying shrinkage repair materials showed higher flexural strength as compared to the composite beams with higher drying shrinkage value of the repair materials even though the strength of those materials were more.

Bayesian methods for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Carlin, Bradley P.

2009-01-01

Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

Exploiting tumor shrinkage through temporal optimization of radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unkelbach, Jan; Craft, David; Hong, Theodore; Papp, Dávid; Wolfgang, John; Bortfeld, Thomas; Ramakrishnan, Jagdish; Salari, Ehsan

2014-01-01

In multi-stage radiotherapy, a patient is treated in several stages separated by weeks or months. This regimen has been motivated mostly by radiobiological considerations, but also provides an approach to reduce normal tissue dose by exploiting tumor shrinkage. The paper considers the optimal design of multi-stage treatments, motivated by the clinical management of large liver tumors for which normal liver dose constraints prohibit the administration of an ablative radiation dose in a single treatment. We introduce a dynamic tumor model that incorporates three factors: radiation induced cell kill, tumor shrinkage, and tumor cell repopulation. The design of multi-stage radiotherapy is formulated as a mathematical optimization problem in which the total dose to the normal tissue is minimized, subject to delivering the prescribed dose to the tumor. Based on the model, we gain insight into the optimal administration of radiation over time, i.e. the optimal treatment gaps and dose levels. We analyze treatments consisting of two stages in detail. The analysis confirms the intuition that the second stage should be delivered just before the tumor size reaches a minimum and repopulation overcompensates shrinking. Furthermore, it was found that, for a large range of model parameters, approximately one-third of the dose should be delivered in the first stage. The projected benefit of multi-stage treatments in terms of normal tissue sparing depends on model assumptions. However, the model predicts large dose reductions by more than a factor of 2 for plausible model parameters. The analysis of the tumor model suggests that substantial reduction in normal tissue dose can be achieved by exploiting tumor shrinkage via an optimal design of multi-stage treatments. This suggests taking a fresh look at multi-stage radiotherapy for selected disease sites where substantial tumor regression translates into reduced target volumes. (paper)

Risk-based design of process systems using discrete-time Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khakzad, Nima; Khan, Faisal; Amyotte, Paul

2013-01-01

Temporal Bayesian networks have gained popularity as a robust technique to model dynamic systems in which the components' sequential dependency, as well as their functional dependency, cannot be ignored. In this regard, discrete-time Bayesian networks have been proposed as a viable alternative to solve dynamic fault trees without resort to Markov chains. This approach overcomes the drawbacks of Markov chains such as the state-space explosion and the error-prone conversion procedure from dynamic fault tree. It also benefits from the inherent advantages of Bayesian networks such as probability updating. However, effective mapping of the dynamic gates of dynamic fault trees into Bayesian networks while avoiding the consequent huge multi-dimensional probability tables has always been a matter of concern. In this paper, a new general formalism has been developed to model two important elements of dynamic fault tree, i.e., cold spare gate and sequential enforcing gate, with any arbitrary probability distribution functions. Also, an innovative Neutral Dependency algorithm has been introduced to model dynamic gates such as priority-AND gate, thus reducing the dimension of conditional probability tables by an order of magnitude. The second part of the paper is devoted to the application of discrete-time Bayesian networks in the risk assessment and safety analysis of complex process systems. It has been shown how dynamic techniques can effectively be applied for optimal allocation of safety systems to obtain maximum risk reduction.

The evolution of shrinkage strain of pet-mortar composite eco ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

... resulting from the cement hydration and are governed by various physical and ... of PET volumetric additive amounts for cement substituting and for the behavior ... Keywords: Composite Eco-materials; Cement substitution; Shrinkage strain; ...

Analysis of the shrinkage at the thick plate part using response surface methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Hatta, N. M.; Azlan, M. Z.; Shayfull, Z.; Roselina, S.; Nasir, S. M.

2017-09-01

Injection moulding is well known for its manufacturing process especially in producing plastic products. To measure the final product quality, there are lots of precautions to be taken into such as parameters setting at the initial stage of the process. Sometimes, if these parameters were set up wrongly, defects may be occurred and one of the well-known defects in the injection moulding process is a shrinkage. To overcome this problem, a maximisation at the precaution stage by making an optimal adjustment on the parameter setting need to be done and this paper focuses on analysing the shrinkage by optimising the parameter at thick plate part with the help of Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and ANOVA analysis. From the previous study, the outstanding parameter gained from the optimisation method in minimising the shrinkage at the moulded part was packing pressure. Therefore, with the reference from the previous literature, packing pressure was selected as the parameter setting for this study with other three parameters which are melt temperature, cooling time and mould temperature. The analysis of the process was obtained from the simulation by Autodesk Moldflow Insight (AMI) software and the material used for moulded part was Acrylonitrile Butadiene Styrene (ABS). The analysis and result were obtained and it found that the shrinkage can be minimised and the significant parameters were found as packing pressure, mould temperature and melt temperature.

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oldroyd Giles ED

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. Results In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Conclusions Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and

Automated Bayesian model development for frequency detection in biological time series.

Science.gov (United States)

Granqvist, Emma; Oldroyd, Giles E D; Morris, Richard J

2011-06-24

A first step in building a mathematical model of a biological system is often the analysis of the temporal behaviour of key quantities. Mathematical relationships between the time and frequency domain, such as Fourier Transforms and wavelets, are commonly used to extract information about the underlying signal from a given time series. This one-to-one mapping from time points to frequencies inherently assumes that both domains contain the complete knowledge of the system. However, for truncated, noisy time series with background trends this unique mapping breaks down and the question reduces to an inference problem of identifying the most probable frequencies. In this paper we build on the method of Bayesian Spectrum Analysis and demonstrate its advantages over conventional methods by applying it to a number of test cases, including two types of biological time series. Firstly, oscillations of calcium in plant root cells in response to microbial symbionts are non-stationary and noisy, posing challenges to data analysis. Secondly, circadian rhythms in gene expression measured over only two cycles highlights the problem of time series with limited length. The results show that the Bayesian frequency detection approach can provide useful results in specific areas where Fourier analysis can be uninformative or misleading. We demonstrate further benefits of the Bayesian approach for time series analysis, such as direct comparison of different hypotheses, inherent estimation of noise levels and parameter precision, and a flexible framework for modelling the data without pre-processing. Modelling in systems biology often builds on the study of time-dependent phenomena. Fourier Transforms are a convenient tool for analysing the frequency domain of time series. However, there are well-known limitations of this method, such as the introduction of spurious frequencies when handling short and noisy time series, and the requirement for uniformly sampled data. Biological time

Effect of processing conditions on shrinkage in injection moulding

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jansen, K.M.B.; van Dijk, D.J.; Husselman, M.H.

1998-01-01

A systematic study on the effect of processing conditions on mold shrinkage was undertaken for seven common thermoplastic polymers. It turned out that the holding pressure was always the key parameter. The effect of the melt temperature is slightly less important. Injection velocity and mold

Shrinkage of Newly Formed Particles in an Urban Environment

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Škrabalová, Lenka; Zíková, Naděžda; Ždímal, Vladimír

2015-01-01

Roč. 15, č. 4 (2015), s. 1313-1324 ISSN 1680-8584 R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP209/11/1342 Institutional support: RVO:67985858 Keywords : aerosol dynamics * ultrafine particles * particle shrinkage Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 2.393, year: 2015

Bayesian benefits with JASP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

CERN Document Server

Ntzoufras, Ioannis

2009-01-01

A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

Shrinkage-based diagonal Hotelling’s tests for high-dimensional small sample size data

KAUST Repository

Dong, Kai

2015-09-16

DNA sequencing techniques bring novel tools and also statistical challenges to genetic research. In addition to detecting differentially expressed genes, testing the significance of gene sets or pathway analysis has been recognized as an equally important problem. Owing to the “large pp small nn” paradigm, the traditional Hotelling’s T2T2 test suffers from the singularity problem and therefore is not valid in this setting. In this paper, we propose a shrinkage-based diagonal Hotelling’s test for both one-sample and two-sample cases. We also suggest several different ways to derive the approximate null distribution under different scenarios of pp and nn for our proposed shrinkage-based test. Simulation studies show that the proposed method performs comparably to existing competitors when nn is moderate or large, but it is better when nn is small. In addition, we analyze four gene expression data sets and they demonstrate the advantage of our proposed shrinkage-based diagonal Hotelling’s test.

Shrinkage-based diagonal Hotelling’s tests for high-dimensional small sample size data

KAUST Repository

Dong, Kai; Pang, Herbert; Tong, Tiejun; Genton, Marc G.

2015-01-01

DNA sequencing techniques bring novel tools and also statistical challenges to genetic research. In addition to detecting differentially expressed genes, testing the significance of gene sets or pathway analysis has been recognized as an equally important problem. Owing to the “large pp small nn” paradigm, the traditional Hotelling’s T2T2 test suffers from the singularity problem and therefore is not valid in this setting. In this paper, we propose a shrinkage-based diagonal Hotelling’s test for both one-sample and two-sample cases. We also suggest several different ways to derive the approximate null distribution under different scenarios of pp and nn for our proposed shrinkage-based test. Simulation studies show that the proposed method performs comparably to existing competitors when nn is moderate or large, but it is better when nn is small. In addition, we analyze four gene expression data sets and they demonstrate the advantage of our proposed shrinkage-based diagonal Hotelling’s test.

Marginal adaptation of a low-shrinkage silorane-based composite: A SEM-analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Malene; Bindslev, Preben Hørsted; Poulsen, Sven

2012-01-01

shrinkage, has been marketed. Objective. To investigate whether reduced polymerization shrinkage improves the marginal adaptation of composite restorations. Material and methods. A total of 156 scanning electron microscopy (SEM) pictures (78 baseline, 78 follow-up) of the occlusal part of Class II......-casts of the restorations were used for SEM pictures at x 16 magnification. Pictures from baseline and follow-up (398 days, SD 29 days) were randomized and the examiner was blinded to the material and the age of the restoration. Stereologic measurements were used to calculate the length and the width of the marginal...

Experimental investigation on shrinkage and surface replication of injection moulded ceramic parts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Islam, Aminul; Giannekas, Nikolaos; Marhöfer, David Maximilian

2014-01-01

Ceramic moulded parts are increasingly being used in advanced components and devices due to their unprecedented material and performance attributes. The surface finish, replication quality and material shrinkage are of immense importance for moulded ceramic parts intended for precision applications....... The current paper presents a thorough investigation on the process of ceramic moulding where it systematically characterizes the surface replication and shrinkage behaviours of precision moulded ceramic components. The test parts are moulded from Catamold TZP-A which is Y2O3-stabilised ZrO2 having widespread...... distribution for the moulded ceramic parts is presented....

Accurate characterisation of post moulding shrinkage of polymer parts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Neves, L. C.; De Chiffre, L.; González-Madruga, D.

2015-01-01

The work deals with experimental determination of the shrinkage of polymer parts after injection moulding. A fixture for length measurements on 8 parts at the same time was designed and manufactured in Invar, mounted with 8 electronic gauges, and provided with 3 temperature sensors. The fixture w...

Shrinkages in heavy-sized cast components of nodular cast iron – NDT and fatigue

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bleicher Christoph

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Material defects like shrinkages, dross, pores and chunky graphite are likely to occur in thick-walled castings and are a challenge for the foundries and their customers. These defects are mostly detected with handheld ultrasonic testing (UT or X-ray analysis. Within a research project done at the Fraunhofer Institute for Structural Durability and System Reliability LBF, the fatigue of Dross, shrinkages and chunky graphite in thick-walled cast material GGG-40 was estimated based on X-ray and fatigue tests on bending specimens. High fatigue reductions were received for the different material imperfections. Based on these impressions a further research project was executed at the Fraunhofer LBF to get an estimation of the informational value of UT in relation to fatigue of shrinkages in thick-walled castings of the material EN-GJS-400-18U-LT, EN-GJS-450-18 and EN-GJS-700-2. With the help of X-ray analysis and the UT technique Sampling Phased Array (SPA information about geometry and density were derived for a numerical analysis of shrinkages in thick-walled castings concerning fatigue. The following text summarizes the fatigue results achieved in the two research projects with the help of the X-ray and UT analysis.

Implementation of bayesian model averaging on the weather data forecasting applications utilizing open weather map

Science.gov (United States)

Rahmat, R. F.; Nasution, F. R.; Seniman; Syahputra, M. F.; Sitompul, O. S.

2018-02-01

Weather is condition of air in a certain region at a relatively short period of time, measured with various parameters such as; temperature, air preasure, wind velocity, humidity and another phenomenons in the atmosphere. In fact, extreme weather due to global warming would lead to drought, flood, hurricane and other forms of weather occasion, which directly affects social andeconomic activities. Hence, a forecasting technique is to predict weather with distinctive output, particullary mapping process based on GIS with information about current weather status in certain cordinates of each region with capability to forecast for seven days afterward. Data used in this research are retrieved in real time from the server openweathermap and BMKG. In order to obtain a low error rate and high accuracy of forecasting, the authors use Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) method. The result shows that the BMA method has good accuracy. Forecasting error value is calculated by mean square error shows (MSE). The error value emerges at minumum temperature rated at 0.28 and maximum temperature rated at 0.15. Meanwhile, the error value of minimum humidity rates at 0.38 and the error value of maximum humidity rates at 0.04. Afterall, the forecasting error rate of wind speed is at 0.076. The lower the forecasting error rate, the more optimized the accuracy is.

OPTIMAL SHRINKAGE ESTIMATION OF MEAN PARAMETERS IN FAMILY OF DISTRIBUTIONS WITH QUADRATIC VARIANCE.

Science.gov (United States)

Xie, Xianchao; Kou, S C; Brown, Lawrence

2016-03-01

This paper discusses the simultaneous inference of mean parameters in a family of distributions with quadratic variance function. We first introduce a class of semi-parametric/parametric shrinkage estimators and establish their asymptotic optimality properties. Two specific cases, the location-scale family and the natural exponential family with quadratic variance function, are then studied in detail. We conduct a comprehensive simulation study to compare the performance of the proposed methods with existing shrinkage estimators. We also apply the method to real data and obtain encouraging results.

Bayesian optimization for materials science

CERN Document Server

Packwood, Daniel

2017-01-01

This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

Effect of vacuum arc melting/casting parameters on shrinkage cavity/piping of austenitic stainless steel ingot

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kamran, J.; Feroz, M.; Sarwar, M.

2009-01-01

Shrinkage cavity/piping at the end of the solidified ingot of steels is one of the most common casting problem in 316L austenitic stainless steel ingot, when consumable electrode is melted and cast in a water-cooled copper mould by vacuum arc re-melting furnace. In present study an effort has been made to reduce the size of shrinkage cavity/ piping by establishing the optimum value of hot topping process parameters at the end of the melting process. It is concluded that the shrinkage cavity/piping at the top of the solidified ingot can be reduced to minimum by adjusting the process parameters particularly the melting current density. (author)

Self-Shrinkage Behaviors of Waste Paper Fiber Reinforced Cement Paste considering Its Self-Curing Effect at Early-Ages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengwu Jiang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper was to study how the early-age self-shrinkage behavior of cement paste is affected by the addition of the waste paper fibers under sealed conditions. Although the primary focus was to determine whether the waste paper fibers are suitable to mitigate self-shrinkage as an internal curing agent under different adding ways, evaluating their strength, pore structure, and hydration properties provided further insight into the self-cured behavior of cement paste. Under the wet mixing condition, the waste paper fibers could mitigate the self-shrinkage of cement paste and, at additions of 0.2% by mass of cement, the waste paper fibers were found to show significant self-shrinkage cracking control while providing some internal curing. In addition, the self-curing efficiency results were analyzed based on the strength and the self-shrinkage behaviors of cement paste. Results indicated that, under a low water cement ratio, an optimal dosage and adding ways of the waste paper fibers could enhance the self-curing efficiency of cement paste.

Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2011-01-01

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

Bayesian statistics an introduction

CERN Document Server

Lee, Peter M

2012-01-01

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

The Shrinkage Model And Expert System Of Plastic Lens Formation

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Rong-Seng

1988-06-01

Shrinkage causes both the appearance & dimension defects of the injected plastic lens. We have built up a model of state equations with the help of finite element analysis program to estimate the volume change (shrinkage and swelling) under the combinations of injection variables such as pressure and temperature etc., then the personal computer expert system has been build up to make that knowledge conveniently available to the user in the model design, process planning, process operation and some other work. The domain knowledge is represented by a R-graph (Relationship-graph) model which states the relationships of variables & equations. This model could be compare with other models in the expert system. If the user has better model to solve the shrinkage problem, the program will evaluate it automatically and a learning file will be trigger by the expert system to teach the user to update their knowledge base and modify the old model by this better model. The Rubin's model and Gilmore's model have been input to the expert system. The conflict has been solved both from the user and the deeper knowledge base. A cube prism and the convex lens examples have been shown in this paper. This program is written by MULISP language in IBM PC-AT. The natural language provides English Explaination of know why and know how and the automatic English translation for the equation rules and the production rules.

Influence of gelatinous fibers on the shrinkage of silver maple

Science.gov (United States)

Donals G. Arganbright; Dwight W. Bensend; Floyd G. Manwiller

1970-01-01

The degree of lean was found to have a significant influence on the logitudinal and transverse shrinkage of three soft maple trees. This may be accounted for by differences in the cell wall layer thickness and fibril angle.

A Bayesian-probability-based method for assigning protein backbone dihedral angles based on chemical shifts and local sequences

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang Jun; Liu Haiyan [University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei National Laboratory for Physical Sciences at the Microscale, and Key Laboratory of Structural Biology, School of Life Sciences (China)], E-mail: hyliu@ustc.edu.cn

2007-01-15

Chemical shifts contain substantial information about protein local conformations. We present a method to assign individual protein backbone dihedral angles into specific regions on the Ramachandran map based on the amino acid sequences and the chemical shifts of backbone atoms of tripeptide segments. The method uses a scoring function derived from the Bayesian probability for the central residue of a query tripeptide segment to have a particular conformation. The Ramachandran map is partitioned into representative regions at two levels of resolution. The lower resolution partitioning is equivalent to the conventional definitions of different secondary structure regions on the map. At the higher resolution level, the {alpha} and {beta} regions are further divided into subregions. Predictions are attempted at both levels of resolution. We compared our method with TALOS using the original TALOS database, and obtained comparable results. Although TALOS may produce the best results with currently available databases which are much enlarged, the Bayesian-probability-based approach can provide a quantitative measure for the reliability of predictions.

Urban shrinkage in Germany and the USA: a comparison of transformation patterns and local strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wiechmann, Thorsten; Pallagst, Karina M

2012-01-01

Many American and European cities have to deal with demographic and economic trajectories leading to urban shrinkage. According to official data, 13% of urban regions in the US and 54% of those in the EU have lost population in recent years. However, the extent and spatial distribution of declining populations differ significantly between Europe and the US. In Germany, the situation is driven by falling birth rates and the effects of German reunification. In the US, shrinkage is basically related to long-term industrial transformation. But the challenges of shrinking cities seldom appeared on the agendas of politicians and urban planners until recently. This article provides a critical overview of the development paths and local strategies of four shrinking cities: Schwedt and Dresden in eastern Germany; Youngstown and Pittsburgh in the US. A typology of urban growth and shrinkage, from economic and demographic perspectives, enables four types of city to be differentiated and the differences between the US and eastern Germany to be discussed. The article suggests that a new transatlantic debate on policy and planning strategies for restructuring shrinking cities is needed to overcome the dominant growth orientation that in most cases intensifies the negative consequences of shrinkage.

Evaluation of shrinkage temperature of bovine pericardium tissue for bioprosthetic heart valve application by differential scanning calorimetry and freeze-drying microscopy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Virgilio Tattini Jr

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Bovine pericardium bioprosthesis has become a commonly accepted device for heart valve replacement. Present practice relies on the measurement of shrinkage temperature, observed as a dramatic shortening of tissue length. Several reports in the last decade have utilized differential scanning calorimetry (DSC as an alternative method to determine the shrinkage temperature, which is accompanied by the absorption of heat, giving rise to an endothermic peak over the shrinkage temperature range of biological tissues. Usually, freeze-drying microscope is used to determine collapse temperature during the lyophilization of solutions. On this experiment we used this technique to study the shrinkage event. The aim of this work was to compare the results of shrinkage temperature obtained by DSC with the results obtained by freeze-drying microscopy. The results showed that both techniques provided excellent sensitivity and reproducibility, and gave information on the thermal shrinkage transition via the thermodynamical parameters inherent of each method.

Bayesian networks with examples in R

CERN Document Server

Scutari, Marco

2014-01-01

Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

Drying shrinkage problems in high-plastic clay soils in Oklahoma.

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-01

Longitudinal cracking in pavements due to drying shrinkage of high-plastic subgrade soils has been a major : problem in Oklahoma. Annual maintenance to seal and repair these distress problems costs significant amount of : money to the state. The long...

Effects of moisture migration on shrinkage, pore pressure and other concrete properties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, D.A.; England, G.L.

1977-01-01

This work investigates the uniaxial migration of moisture in long, upright, limestone concrete cylinders, sealed at the base and sides, and open at the top. The design represents a section through a concrete pressure vessel wall. The cylinders are subjected to a sustained temperature difference between their ends, with maximum temperatures between 105 0 C and 200 0 C. Readings of pore pressure, water content and temperature are taken at various positions along the axis of the cylinders. In one cylinder transverse and longitudinal shrinkage readings are also recorded. The results for the cylinders show that moisture migration is away from the hot face of the specimens, causing reduction in both pore pressure and water content values in this region. The moisture migration creates a drying front which moves slowly up the specimens. Evaporation drying takes place from the unsealed end of the specimen. A drying front moves into the concrete and considerable weight loss is recorded as moisture escapes to the atmosphere. The rate of movement of the drying front is slower than that of the hot front and is proportional to the temperature difference between the top of the specimen and the surrounding atmosphere. In the shrinkage specimen, values of transverse and longitudinal shrinkage reflect the water content results. The specimen indicates that shrinkage occurs in a concrete pressure vessel, in the regions where moisture is lost. The restraint of the mass of concrete surrounding these regions sets up a three dimensional state of internal tensile stress. The areas into which the moisture migrates tend to swell, creating an internal stress situation, which is this

Drying and radial shrinkage characteristics and changes in color ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Drying and radial shrinkage characteristics and changes in color and shape of carrots tissues during air drying were studied. Slices dimensions were obtained by computer vision and the color was quantified by chroma, hue, whitening index and total carotenoids contents. The drying time became shorter of 1 h when ...

Numerical simulation of early-age shrinkage effects on RC member deflections and cracking development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

P. Bernardi

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Shrinkage effects on short-term behavior of reinforced concrete elements are often neglected both in design code provisions and in numerical simulations. However, it is known that their influence on serviceability performance can be significant, especially in case of lightly-reinforced beams. As a matter of fact, the restraint provided by the reinforcement on concrete determines a reduction of the cracking load of the structural element, as well as an increase of its deflection. This paper deals with the modeling of early-age shrinkage effects in the field of smeared crack approaches. To this aim, an existing non-linear constitutive relation for cracked reinforced concrete elements is extended herein to include early-age concrete shrinkage. Careful verifications of the model are carried out by comparing numerical results with significant experimental data reported in technical literature, providing a good agreement both in terms of global and local behavior.

Polymerization Behavior and Mechanical Properties of High-Viscosity Bulk Fill and Low Shrinkage Resin Composites.

Science.gov (United States)

Shibasaki, S; Takamizawa, T; Nojiri, K; Imai, A; Tsujimoto, A; Endo, H; Suzuki, S; Suda, S; Barkmeier, W W; Latta, M A; Miyazaki, M

The present study determined the mechanical properties and volumetric polymerization shrinkage of different categories of resin composite. Three high viscosity bulk fill resin composites were tested: Tetric EvoCeram Bulk Fill (TB, Ivoclar Vivadent), Filtek Bulk Fill posterior restorative (FB, 3M ESPE), and Sonic Fill (SF, Kerr Corp). Two low-shrinkage resin composites, Kalore (KL, GC Corp) and Filtek LS Posterior (LS, 3M ESPE), were used. Three conventional resin composites, Herculite Ultra (HU, Kerr Corp), Estelite ∑ Quick (EQ, Tokuyama Dental), and Filtek Supreme Ultra (SU, 3M ESPE), were used as comparison materials. Following ISO Specification 4049, six specimens for each resin composite were used to determine flexural strength, elastic modulus, and resilience. Volumetric polymerization shrinkage was determined using a water-filled dilatometer. Data were evaluated using analysis of variance followed by Tukey's honestly significant difference test (α=0.05). The flexural strength of the resin composites ranged from 115.4 to 148.1 MPa, the elastic modulus ranged from 5.6 to 13.4 GPa, and the resilience ranged from 0.70 to 1.0 MJ/m 3 . There were significant differences in flexural properties between the materials but no clear outliers. Volumetric changes as a function of time over a duration of 180 seconds depended on the type of resin composite. However, for all the resin composites, apart from LS, volumetric shrinkage began soon after the start of light irradiation, and a rapid decrease in volume during light irradiation followed by a slower decrease was observed. The low shrinkage resin composites KL and LS showed significantly lower volumetric shrinkage than the other tested materials at the measuring point of 180 seconds. In contrast, the three bulk fill resin composites showed higher volumetric change than the other resin composites. The findings from this study provide clinicians with valuable information regarding the mechanical properties and

Self-healing of drying shrinkage cracks in cement-based materials incorporating reactive MgO

Science.gov (United States)

Qureshi, T. S.; Al-Tabbaa, A.

2016-08-01

Excessive drying shrinkage is one of the major issues of concern for longevity and reduced strength performance of concrete structures. It can cause the formation of cracks in the concrete. This research aims to improve the autogenous self-healing capacity of traditional Portland cement (PC) systems, adding expansive minerals such as reactive magnesium oxide (MgO) in terms of drying shrinkage crack healing. Two different reactive grades (high ‘N50’and moderately high ‘92-200’) of MgO were added with PC. Cracks were induced in the samples with restraining end prisms through natural drying shrinkage over 28 days after casting. Samples were then cured under water for 28 and 56 days, and self-healing capacity was investigated in terms of mechanical strength recovery, crack sealing efficiency and improvement in durability. Finally, microstructures of the healing materials were investigated using FT-IR, XRD, and SEM-EDX. Overall N50 mixes show higher expansion and drying shrinkage compared to 92-200 mixes. Autogenous self-healing performance of the MgO containing samples were much higher compared to control (only PC) mixes. Cracks up to 500 μm were sealed in most MgO containing samples after 28 days. In the microstructural investigations, highly expansive Mg-rich hydro-carbonate bridges were found along with traditional calcium-based, self-healing compounds (calcite, portlandite, calcium silicate hydrates and ettringite).

Direct voxel-based comparisons between grey matter shrinkage and glucose hypometabolism in chronic alcoholism.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritz, Ludivine; Segobin, Shailendra; Lannuzel, Coralie; Boudehent, Céline; Vabret, François; Eustache, Francis; Beaunieux, Hélène; Pitel, Anne L

2016-09-01

Alcoholism is associated with widespread brain structural abnormalities affecting mainly the frontocerebellar and the Papez's circuits. Brain glucose metabolism has received limited attention, and few studies used regions of interest approach and showed reduced global brain metabolism predominantly in the frontal and parietal lobes. Even though these studies have examined the relationship between grey matter shrinkage and hypometabolism, none has performed a direct voxel-by-voxel comparison between the degrees of structural and metabolic abnormalities. Seventeen alcoholic patients and 16 control subjects underwent both structural magnetic resonance imaging and (18)F-2-fluoro-deoxy-glucose-positron emission tomography examinations. Structural abnormalities and hypometabolism were examined in alcoholic patients compared with control subjects using two-sample t-tests. Then, these two patterns of brain damage were directly compared with a paired t-test. Compared to controls, alcoholic patients had grey matter shrinkage and hypometabolism in the fronto-cerebellar circuit and several nodes of Papez's circuit. The direct comparison revealed greater shrinkage than hypometabolism in the cerebellum, cingulate cortex, thalamus and hippocampus and parahippocampal gyrus. Conversely, hypometabolism was more severe than shrinkage in the dorsolateral, premotor and parietal cortices. The distinct profiles of abnormalities found within the Papez's circuit, the fronto-cerebellar circuit and the parietal gyrus in chronic alcoholism suggest the involvement of different pathological mechanisms. © The Author(s) 2015.

Drying and Radial Shrinkage Characteristics and Changes in Color ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

nahimana

2011-08-12

Aug 12, 2011 ... A pre-test experiment was carried out following the. Thompson ... energy saving potential and the ability to control drying temperature and air humidity. ..... structural collapse by shrinkage, case hardening, etc. From the slopes of .... Thus, the Nahimana et al. model is proposed as a new model predicting with ...

Sparsity-based shrinkage approach for practicability improvement of H-LBP-based edge extraction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, Chenyi [School of Physics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024 (China); Qiao, Shuang, E-mail: qiaos810@nenu.edu.cn [School of Physics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024 (China); Sun, Jianing, E-mail: sunjn118@nenu.edu.cn [School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun 130024 (China); Zhao, Ruikun; Wu, Wei [Jilin Cancer Hospital, Changchun 130021 (China)

2016-07-21

The local binary pattern with H function (H-LBP) technique enables fast and efficient edge extraction in digital radiography. In this paper, we reformulate the model of H-LBP and propose a novel sparsity-based shrinkage approach, in which the threshold can be adapted to the data sparsity. Using this model, we upgrade fast H-LBP framework and apply it to real digital radiography. The experiments show that the method improved using the new shrinkage approach can avoid elaborately artificial modulation of parameters and possess greater robustness in edge extraction compared with the other current methods without increasing processing time. - Highlights: • An novel sparsity-based shrinkage approach for edge extraction on digital radiography is proposed. • The threshold of SS-LBP can be adaptive to the data sparsity. • SS-LBP is the development of AH-LBP and H-LBP. • Without boosting processing time and losing processing efficiency, SS-LBP can avoid elaborately artificial modulation of parameters provides. • SS-LBP has more robust performance in edge extraction compared with the existing methods.

Large-proportional shrunken bio-replication of shark skin based on UV-curing shrinkage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen, Huawei; Che, Da; Zhang, Xin; Yue, Yue; Zhang, Deyuan

2015-01-01

The shark skin effect has attracted worldwide attention because of its superior drag reduction. As the product of natural selection, the maximum drag reduction of shark skin is found in its normal living environment. Large-proportional shrinkage of shark skin morphology is greatly anticipated for its adaptation to faster fluid flow. One novel approach, large-proportional shrunken bio-replication, is proposed as a method to adjust the optimal drag reduction region of shark skin based on the shrinkage of UV-cured material. The shark skin is taken as a replica template to allow large-proportional shrinking in the drag reduction morphology by taking advantage of the shrinkage of UV-curable material. The accuracy of the large-proportional shrunken bio-replication approach is verified by a comparison between original and shrunken bio-replicated shark skin, which shows that the shrinking ratio can reach 23% and the bio-replication accuracy is higher than 95%. In addition, the translation of the optimum drag reduction peak of natural surface function to various applications and environments is proved by drag reduction experiments. (technical note)

Shrinkage Porosity Criterion and Its Application to A 5.5 Ton Steel Ingot

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhang C.

2016-06-01

Full Text Available In order to predict the distribution of shrinkage porosity in steel ingot efficiently and accurately, a criterion R√L and a method to obtain its threshold value were proposed. The criterion R√L was derived based on the solidification characteristics of steel ingot and pressure gradient in the mushy zone, in which the physical properties, the thermal parameters, the structure of the mushy zone and the secondary dendrite arm spacing were all taken into consideration. The threshold value of the criterion R√L was obtained with combination of numerical simulation of ingot solidification and total solidification shrinkage rate. Prediction of the shrinkage porosity in a 5.5 ton ingot of 2Cr13 steel with criterion R√L>0.21 m · °C1/2 · s−3/2 agreed well with the results of experimental sectioning. Based on this criterion, optimization of the ingot was carried out by decreasing the height-to-diameter ratio and increasing the taper, which successfully eliminated the centreline porosity and further proved the applicability of this criterion.

The correlation between aldehyde dehydrogenase-1A1 level and tumor shrinkage after preoperative chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rhandyka Rafli

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This study was performed to determine the correlation between aldehyde dehydrogenase-1A1 (ALDH1A1 level and tumor shrinkage after chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer. This is a retrospective study of 14 locally advanced rectal cancer patients with long course neoadjuvant chemoradiation. ALDH1A1 level was measured using ELISA from paraffin embedded tissue. Tumor shrinkage was measured from computed tomography (CT scan or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI based on Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumor v1.1 (RECIST v1.1. The mean of ALDH1A1 level was 9.014 ± 3.3 pg/mL and the mean of tumor shrinkage was 7.89 ± 35.7%. Partial response proportion was 28.6%, stable disease proportion was 50% and progressive disease proportion was 21.4%. There was a significant strong negative correlation (r = –0.890, plt; 0.001 between ALDH1A1 and tumor shrinkage. In conclusion, tumor shrinkage in locally advanced rectal cancer after preoperative chemoradiation was influenced by ALDH1A1 level. Higher level of ALDH1A1 suggests decreased tumor shrinkage after preoperative chemoradiation.

GeneRecon Users' Manual — A coalescent based tool for fine-scale association mapping

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mailund, T

2006-01-01

GeneRecon is a software package for linkage disequilibrium mapping using coalescent theory. It is based on Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for fine-scale linkage-disequilibrium gene mapping using high-density marker maps. GeneRecon explicitly models the genealogy of a sample of th...

Non-uniform shrinkage of multiple-walled carbon nanotubes under in situ electron beam irradiation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Li, Lunxiong [South China Normal University, Brain Science Institute, Guangzhou (China); Xiamen University, China-Australia Joint Laboratory for Functional Nanomaterials and Physics Department, Xiamen (China); Su, Jiangbin [Xiamen University, China-Australia Joint Laboratory for Functional Nanomaterials and Physics Department, Xiamen (China); Chang Zhou University, School of Mathematics and Physics, Changzhou (China); Zhu, Xianfang [Xiamen University, China-Australia Joint Laboratory for Functional Nanomaterials and Physics Department, Xiamen (China)

2016-10-15

Instability of multiple-walled carbon nanotubes (MWCNTs) was investigated by in situ transmission electron microscopy at room temperature. Specially, the non-uniform shrinkage of tubes was found: The pristine MWCNT shrank preferentially in its axial direction from the most curved free cap end of the tube, but the shrinkage of the tube diameter was offset by the axial shrinkage: For the complex MWCNT, the two inner MWCNTs also preferentially axially shrank from their most curved cap ends and separated from each other. However, for the effect of the radial pressure from the out walls which enveloped the two inner tubes and the tube amorphization, the two inner tubes were extruded to come close to each other and finally touched again. The new ''evaporation'' and ''diffusion'' mechanisms of carbon atoms as driven by the nano-curvature of CNT and the electron beam-induced athermal activation were suggested to explain the above phenomena. (orig.)

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

Early age volume changes in concrete due to chemical shrinkage of cement paste

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ebensperger, L.

1991-12-01

Full Text Available Unrestrained early age volume changes due to chemical shrinkage in cement pastes, mortars and concretes have been determined. The measurements were performed on sealed and unsealed samples which were stored under water. The chemical shrinkage of unsealed specimens represents the amount of absorbed water due to the chemical reaction of the cement It depends only on the cement content of the sample and does not lead to changes of the external dimensions. However the chemical shrinkage of sealed specimens is connected with a real volume change due to self-desiccation and the effect of internal pressures. The shrinkage depends in this case on the restraining effect of coarse aggregates as well as the cement content. The chemical shrinkage measured on sealed concretes was much higher than the one expected to ocurr on concretes, because normally an equalization of pressure takes place to some extent in the interior of the concrete. The use of expansive additives showed that they may compensate the chemical shrinkage, but its dosage is very sensitive and should be defined exactly for each case particularly.

Se han determinado los cambios volumétricos que ocurren en pastas de cemento, morteros y hormigones a edad temprana debido al efecto de la retracción química. Las mediciones se realizaron en probetas selladas y no selladas sumergidas bajo agua. La retracción química en probetas no selladas representa la cantidad de agua absorbida debido a la reacción química del cemento. Depende solamente del contenido de cemento de la probeta y no produce ningún cambio en las dimensiones de la probeta. Por el contrario, la retracción química en probetas selladas está relacionada con un cambio volumétrico real debido al efecto de la autodesecación y presiones internas. La retracción en este caso depende tanto de la restricción que imponen los áridos, como del contenido de cemento. La retracción química medida en hormigones sellados

First time observation of local current shrinkage during the MARFE behavior on the J-TEXT tokamak

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Peng; Zhuang, G.; Gentle, K.; Hu, Qiming; Chen, Jie; Li, Qiang; Liu, Yang; Gao, Li; Zhang, Xiaolong; Liu, Hai; Chen, Zhipeng; Zhu, Lizhi; Li, Fuming; Zhou, Yinan; Zeng, Zhong; Liu, Linzi; He, Jiyang

2017-11-01

Multifaceted asymmetric radiation as well as strong poloidal asymmetry of the electron density from the edge, dubbed as ‘MARFE’, has been observed in high electron density Ohmically heated plasmas on J-TEXT tokamak. Equilibrium reconstruction based on the measured data from the 17-channel FIR polarimeter-interferometer indicates that an asymmetric plasma current density distribution forms at the edge region and the plasma current shrinkage locates at the MARFE affected region. Furthermore, associated with the localized plasma current shrinkage, a locked mode MHD activity is excited, which then terminate the discharge with a major disruption. Localized plasma current shrinkage at the MARFE region is considered to be the direct cause for the density limit disruptions, and the proposed interpretation is consistent with the experimental observations.

Shrinkage Simulation of Holographic Grating Using Diffusion Model in PQ-PMMA Photopolymer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Zepeng

2015-01-01

Full Text Available An extended model based on nonlocal polymerization-driven diffusion model is derived by introducing shrinkage process for describing photopolymerized dynamics in PQ-PMMA photopolymer. The kinetic parameters, polymerization rate and diffusion rate are experimentally determined to provide quantitative simulation. The numerical results show that the fringes at edge of grating are firstly shifted and consequently, it leads to a contrast reduction of holograms. Finally, theoretical results are experimentally checked by temporal evolution of diffraction efficiency, and the shrinkage coefficient 0.5% is approximately achieved under incident intensity 25.3mw/cm2. This work can enhance the applicability of diffusion model and contribute to the reasonable description of the grating formation in the photopolymer.

Thoracoscopic CO laser coagulation shrinkage of blebs in treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax

Science.gov (United States)

Sensaki, Koji; Arai, Tsunenori; Kikuchi, Keiichi; Takagi, Keigo; Tanaka, Susumu; Kikuchi, Makoto

1992-06-01

Spontaneous pneumothorax is a common disease in young people. Operative intervention has been done in most of the recurrent cases. Recently thoracoscopic treatment has been tested as a less invasive treatment modarity. We adopted carbon monoxide (CO) laser for thoracoscopic treatment of recurrent spontaneous pneumothorax. CO laser (wavelength; 5.4 micrometers ) could be delivered by chalcogenide glass (As - S) covered with a teflon sheath and ZnSe fiber tip. The sterilized flexible bronchoscope was inserted through the thoracoscopic outer sheath under local anesthesia. Shrinkage of blebs was obtained by non-contact method of CO laser irradiation. Laser power at the tip was 2.5 - 5 W and irradiation duration was 0.5 s each. Excellent shrinkage of bleb and bulla could be obtained by CO laser without perforation complication. Advantages of CO laser as a thoracoscopic treatment were: (1) capability of fiber delivery (flexible thoracoscopy was easy to operate and clear to visualize the blebs which were frequently found at the apical portion of the lung, and (2) shallow extinction length (good shrinkage of blebs, low risk of perforation, and thin layer of carbonization). In conclusion, our new technique of thoracoscopic CO laser irradiation was found to be a safe and effective treatment of spontaneous pneumothorax.

BAYESIAN INFERENCE OF CMB GRAVITATIONAL LENSING

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anderes, Ethan [Department of Statistics, University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wandelt, Benjamin D.; Lavaux, Guilhem [Sorbonne Universités, UPMC Univ Paris 06 and CNRS, UMR7095, Institut d’Astrophysique de Paris, F-75014, Paris (France)

2015-08-01

The Planck satellite, along with several ground-based telescopes, has mapped the cosmic microwave background (CMB) at sufficient resolution and signal-to-noise so as to allow a detection of the subtle distortions due to the gravitational influence of the intervening matter distribution. A natural modeling approach is to write a Bayesian hierarchical model for the lensed CMB in terms of the unlensed CMB and the lensing potential. So far there has been no feasible algorithm for inferring the posterior distribution of the lensing potential from the lensed CMB map. We propose a solution that allows efficient Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling from the joint posterior of the lensing potential and the unlensed CMB map using the Hamiltonian Monte Carlo technique. The main conceptual step in the solution is a re-parameterization of CMB lensing in terms of the lensed CMB and the “inverse lensing” potential. We demonstrate a fast implementation on simulated data, including noise and a sky cut, that uses a further acceleration based on a very mild approximation of the inverse lensing potential. We find that the resulting Markov Chain has short correlation lengths and excellent convergence properties, making it promising for applications to high-resolution CMB data sets in the future.

Creep and shrinkage of Mo(Ni)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaysser, W.A.; Hofmann-Amtenbrink, M.; Petzow, G.

1984-01-01

To avoid some of the errors inherent in a quantitative interpretation of shrinkage of powder compacts as Mo-Ni, other experiments were looked for, where the influence of Ni on the material transport properties of Mo could be measured semi-quantitatively during heating up to temperature and subsequent isothermal annealing. The bending of thin Mo foils under small loads was found to be an experimental arrangement, where variations in stress, in Ni-concentration and in intrinsic material properties could be realized. The results of these creep experiments will be compared in a qualitative sense with sintering experiments in Mo-Ni done under similar conditions as the creep experiments

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to reconstruction and prediction of random dynamical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Merkatas, Christos; Kaloudis, Konstantinos; Hatjispyros, Spyridon J.

2017-06-01

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Our results can be used by researchers in physical modeling interested in a fast and accurate estimation of low dimensional stochastic models when the size of the observed time series is small and the noise process (perhaps) is non-Gaussian. The inference procedure is demonstrated specifically in the case of polynomial maps of an arbitrary degree and when a Geometric Stick Breaking mixture process prior over the space of densities, is applied to the additive errors. Our method is parsimonious compared to Bayesian nonparametric techniques based on Dirichlet process mixtures, flexible and general. Simulations based on synthetic time series are presented.

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to reconstruction and prediction of random dynamical systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Merkatas, Christos; Kaloudis, Konstantinos; Hatjispyros, Spyridon J

2017-06-01

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric mixture model for the reconstruction and prediction from observed time series data, of discretized stochastic dynamical systems, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Our results can be used by researchers in physical modeling interested in a fast and accurate estimation of low dimensional stochastic models when the size of the observed time series is small and the noise process (perhaps) is non-Gaussian. The inference procedure is demonstrated specifically in the case of polynomial maps of an arbitrary degree and when a Geometric Stick Breaking mixture process prior over the space of densities, is applied to the additive errors. Our method is parsimonious compared to Bayesian nonparametric techniques based on Dirichlet process mixtures, flexible and general. Simulations based on synthetic time series are presented.

Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asad Ali

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

A novel image fusion algorithm based on 2D scale-mixing complex wavelet transform and Bayesian MAP estimation for multimodal medical images

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abdallah Bengueddoudj

2017-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we propose a new image fusion algorithm based on two-dimensional Scale-Mixing Complex Wavelet Transform (2D-SMCWT. The fusion of the detail 2D-SMCWT coefficients is performed via a Bayesian Maximum a Posteriori (MAP approach by considering a trivariate statistical model for the local neighboring of 2D-SMCWT coefficients. For the approximation coefficients, a new fusion rule based on the Principal Component Analysis (PCA is applied. We conduct several experiments using three different groups of multimodal medical images to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The obtained results prove the superiority of the proposed method over the state of the art fusion methods in terms of visual quality and several commonly used metrics. Robustness of the proposed method is further tested against different types of noise. The plots of fusion metrics establish the accuracy of the proposed fusion method.

Reducing Shrinkage in Canned and Frozen Mushrooms

OpenAIRE

Gormley, T. R. (Thomas Ronan); Walshe, P.E.

1982-01-01

The process involving a preliminary soaking of the mushrooms in water for 20 min followed by a chill storage period followed by a further water soak for 2 hr, and known as the 3S process, gave a considerable reduction in total shrinkage in both brown and white strain canned mushrooms compared with the control samples. Water uptake by the mushrooms in the 3S process was greatest when the soaking water temperature was between 20 and 30°C and had a pH of 8. Citric acid in the blanch water enhanc...

Fast generation of computer-generated holograms using wavelet shrinkage.

Science.gov (United States)

Shimobaba, Tomoyoshi; Ito, Tomoyoshi

2017-01-09

Computer-generated holograms (CGHs) are generated by superimposing complex amplitudes emitted from a number of object points. However, this superposition process remains very time-consuming even when using the latest computers. We propose a fast calculation algorithm for CGHs that uses a wavelet shrinkage method, eliminating small wavelet coefficient values to express approximated complex amplitudes using only a few representative wavelet coefficients.

Modelling of shrinkage cavity defects during the wheel and belt casting process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dablement, S; Mortensen, D; Fjaer, H; Lee, M; Grandfield, J; Savage, G; Nguyen, V

2012-01-01

Properzi continuous casting is a wheel and belt casting process used for producing aluminium wire rod which is essential to the making of electrical cables and over head lines. One of the main concerns of Properzi process users is to ensure good quality of the final product and to avoid cast defects especially the presence of shrinkage cavity. Numerical models developed with the Alsim software, which allows an automatic calculation of gap dependent heat transfer coefficients at the metal-mould interface due to thermal deformation, are used in order to get a better understanding on the shrinkage cavity formation. Models show the effect of process parameters on the cavity defect development and provide initial guidance for users in order to avoid this kind of casting defect.

Use of rice husk ash for mitigating the autogenous shrinkage of cement pastes at low water cement ratio

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Huang, H.; Ye, G.; Fehling, Ekkehard; Middendorf, Bernhard; Thiemicke, Jenny

2016-01-01

It is well recognized that the high risk of early age micro-crack of HPC/UHPC is attributed to the large magnitude of early age autogenous shrinkage caused by self-desiccation in binder hydration. Over the years, several methods have been proposed to mitigate autogenous shrinkage based on internal

Evaluation of linear polymerization shrinkage, flexural strength and modulus of elasticity of dental composites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gabriela Queiroz de Melo Monteiro

2010-03-01

Full Text Available Linear polymerization shrinkage (LPS, flexural strength (FS and modulus of elasticity (ME of 7 dental composites (Filtek Z350™, Filtek Z250™/3M ESPE; Grandio™, Polofil Supra™/VOCO; TPH Spectrum™, TPH3™, Esthet-X™/Denstply were measured. For the measurement of LPS, composites were applied to a cylindrical metallic mold and polymerized (n = 8. The gap formed at the resin/mold interface was observed using scanning electron microscopy (1500×. For FS and ME, specimens were prepared according to the ISO 4049 specifications (n = 10. Statistical analysis of the data was performed with one-way ANOVA and the Tukey test. TPH Spectrum presented significantly higher LPS values (29.45 µm. Grandio had significantly higher mean values for FS (141.07 MPa and ME (13.91 GPa. The relationship between modulus of elasticity and polymerization shrinkage is the main challenge for maintenance of the adhesive interface, thus composites presenting high shrinkage values, associated with a high modulus of elasticity tend to disrupt the adhesive interface under polymerization.

Extreme-Scale Bayesian Inference for Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Simulations

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Biros, George [Univ. of Texas, Austin, TX (United States)

2018-01-12

Uncertainty quantification (UQ)—that is, quantifying uncertainties in complex mathematical models and their large-scale computational implementations—is widely viewed as one of the outstanding challenges facing the field of CS&E over the coming decade. The EUREKA project set to address the most difficult class of UQ problems: those for which both the underlying PDE model as well as the uncertain parameters are of extreme scale. In the project we worked on these extreme-scale challenges in the following four areas: 1. Scalable parallel algorithms for sampling and characterizing the posterior distribution that exploit the structure of the underlying PDEs and parameter-to-observable map. These include structure-exploiting versions of the randomized maximum likelihood method, which aims to overcome the intractability of employing conventional MCMC methods for solving extreme-scale Bayesian inversion problems by appealing to and adapting ideas from large-scale PDE-constrained optimization, which have been very successful at exploring high-dimensional spaces. 2. Scalable parallel algorithms for construction of prior and likelihood functions based on learning methods and non-parametric density estimation. Constructing problem-specific priors remains a critical challenge in Bayesian inference, and more so in high dimensions. Another challenge is construction of likelihood functions that capture unmodeled couplings between observations and parameters. We will create parallel algorithms for non-parametric density estimation using high dimensional N-body methods and combine them with supervised learning techniques for the construction of priors and likelihood functions. 3. Bayesian inadequacy models, which augment physics models with stochastic models that represent their imperfections. The success of the Bayesian inference framework depends on the ability to represent the uncertainty due to imperfections of the mathematical model of the phenomena of interest. This is a

In-Situ Observation of Sintering Shrinkage of UO2 Compacts Derived from Different Powder Routes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhee, Young Woo; Oh, Jang Soo; Kim, Dong Joo; Kim, Keon Sik; Kim, Jong Hun; Yang, Jae Ho; Koo, Yang Hyun

2015-01-01

In-situ observations on the shrinkage of green pellets with precisely controlled dimensions were carefully conducted by using TOM during H2 atmosphere sintering. The shrinkage retardation in IDR-UO 2 might be attributed to the larger primary particle size of IDRUO 2 than those of ADU- and AUC- UO 2 powders. It would be important to understand the different sintering characteristics of UO 2 powders according to the powder routes, when it comes to designing a new sintering process or choosing a sintering additive for new fuel pellet like PCI (Pellet Cladding Interaction) remedy pellet. In this paper, we have investigated the initial and intermediate sintering shrinkage of UO 2 from different powder routes by in-situ observation of green samples during H2 atmosphere sintering. Effect of powder characteristics of three different UO 2 powders on the initial and intermediate sintering were closely reviewed including crystal structure, powder size, specific surface area, primary crystal size, and O/U ratio

Effectiveness of Fiber Reinforcement on the Mechanical Properties and Shrinkage Cracking of Recycled Fine Aggregate Concrete

Science.gov (United States)

Nam, Jeongsoo; Kim, Gyuyong; Yoo, Jaechul; Choe, Gyeongcheol; Kim, Hongseop; Choi, Hyeonggil; Kim, Youngduck

2016-01-01

This paper presents an experimental study conducted to investigate the effect of fiber reinforcement on the mechanical properties and shrinkage cracking of recycled fine aggregate concrete (RFAC) with two types of fiber—polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and nylon. A small fiber volume fraction, such as 0.05% or 0.1%, in RFAC with polyvinyl alcohol or nylon fibers was used for optimum efficiency in minimum quantity. Additionally, to make a comparative evaluation of the mechanical properties and shrinkage cracking, we examined natural fine aggregate concrete as well. The test results revealed that the addition of fibers and fine aggregates plays an important role in improving the mechanical performance of the investigated concrete specimens as well as controlling their cracking behavior. The mechanical properties such as compressive strength, splitting tensile strength, and flexural strength of fiber-reinforced RFAC were slightly better than those of non-fiber-reinforced RFAC. The shrinkage cracking behavior was examined using plat-ring-type and slab-type tests. The fiber-reinforced RFAC showed a greater reduction in the surface cracks than non-fiber-reinforced concrete. The addition of fibers at a small volume fraction in RFAC is more effective for drying shrinkage cracks than for improving mechanical performance. PMID:28773256

Effectiveness of Fiber Reinforcement on the Mechanical Properties and Shrinkage Cracking of Recycled Fine Aggregate Concrete.

Science.gov (United States)

Nam, Jeongsoo; Kim, Gyuyong; Yoo, Jaechul; Choe, Gyeongcheol; Kim, Hongseop; Choi, Hyeonggil; Kim, Youngduck

2016-02-26

This paper presents an experimental study conducted to investigate the effect of fiber reinforcement on the mechanical properties and shrinkage cracking of recycled fine aggregate concrete (RFAC) with two types of fiber-polyvinyl alcohol (PVA) and nylon. A small fiber volume fraction, such as 0.05% or 0.1%, in RFAC with polyvinyl alcohol or nylon fibers was used for optimum efficiency in minimum quantity. Additionally, to make a comparative evaluation of the mechanical properties and shrinkage cracking, we examined natural fine aggregate concrete as well. The test results revealed that the addition of fibers and fine aggregates plays an important role in improving the mechanical performance of the investigated concrete specimens as well as controlling their cracking behavior. The mechanical properties such as compressive strength, splitting tensile strength, and flexural strength of fiber-reinforced RFAC were slightly better than those of non-fiber-reinforced RFAC. The shrinkage cracking behavior was examined using plat-ring-type and slab-type tests. The fiber-reinforced RFAC showed a greater reduction in the surface cracks than non-fiber-reinforced concrete. The addition of fibers at a small volume fraction in RFAC is more effective for drying shrinkage cracks than for improving mechanical performance.

Statistical mechanics provides novel insights into microtubule stability and mechanism of shrinkage.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ishutesh Jain

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Microtubules are nano-machines that grow and shrink stochastically, making use of the coupling between chemical kinetics and mechanics of its constituent protofilaments (PFs. We investigate the stability and shrinkage of microtubules taking into account inter-protofilament interactions and bending interactions of intrinsically curved PFs. Computing the free energy as a function of PF tip position, we show that the competition between curvature energy, inter-PF interaction energy and entropy leads to a rich landscape with a series of minima that repeat over a length-scale determined by the intrinsic curvature. Computing Langevin dynamics of the tip through the landscape and accounting for depolymerization, we calculate the average unzippering and shrinkage velocities of GDP protofilaments and compare them with the experimentally known results. Our analysis predicts that the strength of the inter-PF interaction (E(s(m has to be comparable to the strength of the curvature energy (E(b(m such that E(s(m - E(b(m ≈ 1kBT, and questions the prevalent notion that unzippering results from the domination of bending energy of curved GDP PFs. Our work demonstrates how the shape of the free energy landscape is crucial in explaining the mechanism of MT shrinkage where the unzippered PFs will fluctuate in a set of partially peeled off states and subunit dissociation will reduce the length.

clınıcal EVALUATION OF FREE GINGIVAL GRAFT SHRINKAGE IN HORIZONTAL AND VERTICAL DIMENSIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emine ÇİFCİBAŞI

2015-10-01

Full Text Available Purpose: To assess the shrinkage of Free Gingival Graft (FGG in horizontal and vertical dimensions and calculate the changes in the surface area of the transplanted tissue in a 3 months period. Materials and Methods: A total of 30 FGG were placed aiming to increase attached gingiva around recession sites. Vertical recessions, horizontal recessions, surface area, plaque index, gingival index, periodontal probing depth and clinical attachment level were assesed at baseline, 1 and 3 months postoperatively. Results: Graft shrinkage between baseline and 1 month was more evident than 1 to 3 months in either dimensions. Both horizontal and vertical dimensions were significantly decreased (p0.05. . Conclusion: The shrinkage of vertical and horizontal dimensions of the grafts were almost equal unlike the literature. In addition, the different dimensional changes observed in individual level deserve further research.

A semi-automated 2D/3D marker-based registration algorithm modelling prostate shrinkage during radiotherapy for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Budiharto, Tom; Slagmolen, Pieter; Hermans, Jeroen; Maes, Frederik; Verstraete, Jan; Heuvel, Frank Van den; Depuydt, Tom; Oyen, Raymond; Haustermans, Karin

2009-01-01

Background and purpose: Currently, most available patient alignment tools based on implanted markers use manual marker matching and rigid registration transformations to measure the needed translational shifts. To quantify the particular effect of prostate gland shrinkage, implanted gold markers were tracked during a course of radiotherapy including an isotropic scaling factor to model prostate shrinkage. Materials and methods: Eight patients with prostate cancer had gold markers implanted transrectally and seven were treated with (neo) adjuvant androgen deprivation therapy. After patient alignment to skin tattoos, orthogonal electronic portal images (EPIs) were taken. A semi-automated 2D/3D marker-based registration was performed to calculate the necessary couch shifts. The registration consists of a rigid transformation combined with an isotropic scaling to model prostate shrinkage. Results: The inclusion of an isotropic shrinkage model in the registration algorithm cancelled the corresponding increase in registration error. The mean scaling factor was 0.89 ± 0.09. For all but two patients, a decrease of the isotropic scaling factor during treatment was observed. However, there was almost no difference in the translation offset between the manual matching of the EPIs to the digitally reconstructed radiographs and the semi-automated 2D/3D registration. A decrease in the intermarker distance was found correlating with prostate shrinkage rather than with random marker migration. Conclusions: Inclusion of shrinkage in the registration process reduces registration errors during a course of radiotherapy. Nevertheless, this did not lead to a clinically significant change in the proposed table translations when compared to translations obtained with manual marker matching without a scaling correction

Unavailability of the residual system heat removal of Angra 1 by Bayesian networks considering dependent failures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gomes, Many R.S.; Melo, Paulo F.F.F. e

2015-01-01

This work models by Bayesian networks the residual heat removal system (SRCR) of Angra I nuclear power plant, using fault tree mapping for systematically identifying all possible modes of occurrence caused by a large loss of coolant accident (large LOCA). The focus is on dependent events, such as the bridge system structure of the residual heat removal system and the occurrence of common-cause failures. We used the Netica™ tool kit, Norsys Software Corporation and Python 2.7.5 for modeling Bayesian networks and Microsoft Excel for modeling fault trees. Working with dependent events using Bayesian networks is similar to the solutions proposed by other models, beyond simple understanding and ease of application and modification throughout the analysis. The results obtained for the unavailability of the system were satisfactory, showing that in most cases the system will be available to mitigate the effects of an accident as described above. (author)

Unavailability of the residual system heat removal of Angra 1 by Bayesian networks considering dependent failures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gomes, Many R.S.; Melo, Paulo F.F.F. e, E-mail: mgomes@con.ufrj.br, E-mail: frutuoso@nuclear.ufrj.br [Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro (UFRJ), RJ (Brazil). Programa de Pos-Graduacao em Engenharia Nuclear

2015-07-01

This work models by Bayesian networks the residual heat removal system (SRCR) of Angra I nuclear power plant, using fault tree mapping for systematically identifying all possible modes of occurrence caused by a large loss of coolant accident (large LOCA). The focus is on dependent events, such as the bridge system structure of the residual heat removal system and the occurrence of common-cause failures. We used the Netica™ tool kit, Norsys Software Corporation and Python 2.7.5 for modeling Bayesian networks and Microsoft Excel for modeling fault trees. Working with dependent events using Bayesian networks is similar to the solutions proposed by other models, beyond simple understanding and ease of application and modification throughout the analysis. The results obtained for the unavailability of the system were satisfactory, showing that in most cases the system will be available to mitigate the effects of an accident as described above. (author)

Evaluation of shrinkage polymerization and temperature of different acrylic resins used to splinting transfer copings in indirect impression technique

Science.gov (United States)

Franco, Ana Paula G. O.; Karam, Leandro Z.; Galvão, José R.; Kalinowski, Hypolito J.

2015-09-01

The aim of the present study was evaluate the shrinkage polymerization and temperature of different acrylic resins used to splinting transfer copings in indirect impression technique. Two implants were placed in an artificial bone, with the two transfer copings joined with dental floss and acrylic resins; two dental resins are used. Measurements of deformation and temperature were performed with Fiber Braggs grating sensor for 17 minutes. The results revealed that one type of resin shows greater values of polymerization shrinkage than the other. Pattern resins did not present lower values of shrinkage, as usually reported by the manufacturer.

Basics of Bayesian methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

A moment projection method for population balance dynamics with a shrinkage term

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wu, Shaohua [Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University of Singapore, Engineering Block EA, Engineering Drive 1, 117576 (Singapore); Yapp, Edward K.Y.; Akroyd, Jethro; Mosbach, Sebastian [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); Xu, Rong [School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, 637459 (Singapore); Yang, Wenming [Department of Mechanical Engineering, National University of Singapore, Engineering Block EA, Engineering Drive 1, 117576 (Singapore); Kraft, Markus, E-mail: mk306@cam.ac.uk [Department of Chemical Engineering and Biotechnology, University of Cambridge, New Museums Site, Pembroke Street, Cambridge, CB2 3RA (United Kingdom); School of Chemical and Biomedical Engineering, Nanyang Technological University, 62 Nanyang Drive, 637459 (Singapore)

2017-02-01

A new method of moments for solving the population balance equation is developed and presented. The moment projection method (MPM) is numerically simple and easy to implement and attempts to address the challenge of particle shrinkage due to processes such as oxidation, evaporation or dissolution. It directly solves the moment transport equation for the moments and tracks the number of the smallest particles using the algorithm by Blumstein and Wheeler (1973) . The performance of the new method is measured against the method of moments (MOM) and the hybrid method of moments (HMOM). The results suggest that MPM performs much better than MOM and HMOM where shrinkage is dominant. The new method predicts mean quantities which are almost as accurate as a high-precision stochastic method calculated using the established direct simulation algorithm (DSA).

Autogenous shrinkage in high-performance cement paste: An evaluation of basic mechanisms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lura, Pietro; Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; van Breugel, Klaas

2003-01-01

In this paper, various mechanisms Suggested to cause autogenous shrinkage are presented. The mechanisms are evaluated from the point of view of their soundness and applicability to quantitative modeling of autogenous shrinkage. The capillary tension approach is advantageous, because it has a sound...... mechanical and thermodynamical basis. Furthermore, this mechanism is easily applicable in a numerical model when dealing with a continuously changing microstructure. In order to test the numerical model, autogenous deformation and internal relative humidity (RH) of a Portland cement paste were measured...... on the capillary tension approach. Because a part of the RH drop in the cement paste is due to dissolved salts in the pore solution, a method is suggested to separate this effect from self-desiccation and to calculate the actual stress in the pore fluid associated with menisci formation....

Bayesian computation with R

CERN Document Server

Albert, Jim

2009-01-01

There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

A modelling study of drying shrinkage damage in concrete repair systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lukovic, M.; Savija, B.; Schlangen, E.; Ye, G.; van Breugel, K.

2014-01-01

Differential shrinkage between repair material and concrete substrate is considered to be the main cause of premature failure of repair systems (Martinola, Sadouki et al. 2001, Beushausen and Alexander 2007). Magnitude of induced stresses depends on many factors, for example the amount of restraint,

Porous stainless steel hollow fibers with shrinkage-controlled small radial dimensions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Luiten-Olieman, Maria W.J.; Raaijmakers, Michiel; Raaijmakers, Michiel J.T.; Winnubst, Aloysius J.A.; Wessling, Matthias; Nijmeijer, Arian; Benes, Nieck Edwin

2011-01-01

A method is presented for the preparation of thin (∼250 μm) porous stainless steel hollow fiber membranes based on dry–wet spinning of a particle-loaded polymer solution followed by heat treatment. Extraordinarily small radial dimensions were achieved by controlled shrinkage during thermal

A comparative study of bulk-fill composites: degree of conversion, post-gel shrinkage and cytotoxicity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flávia Gonçalves

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract: Bulk-fill composites are claimed to be restorative materials used in deep preparations and effectively photoactivated in layers up to 4 mm. The aim of the present study was to evaluate the degree of conversion, post-gel volumetric shrinkage, and cytotoxicity of six bulk-fill and two conventional composites. Degree of conversion was determined by FTIR spectroscopy; post-gel volumetric shrinkage was determined using the strain gauge method; and cytotoxicity in human fibroblasts was evaluated indirectly by the MTT assay. Data were subjected to one-way ANOVA/Tukey's test (α = 0.05. All materials, including bulk-fill and conventional composites, were classified as non-toxic, with cell viability higher than 70%. Bulk-fill composites exhibited volumetric shrinkage similar to or lower (1.4 to 0.4% than that of conventional composites (1.7–2.1%. However, only four of the bulk-fill composites were able to sustain a homogeneous conversion at the 4-mm depth. Despite their non-toxicity and shrinkage similar to that of conventional materials, not all commercial bulk-fill materials were able to maintain a conversion as high as 80% of the superficial layer, at the 4-mm depth, indicating some failure in the bulk-fill design of some commercial brands. Therefore, the use of bulk-fill materials in dental practice is advantageous, but special attention should be given to the selection and correct use of the materials.

Shrinkage covariance matrix approach based on robust trimmed mean in gene sets detection

Science.gov (United States)

Karjanto, Suryaefiza; Ramli, Norazan Mohamed; Ghani, Nor Azura Md; Aripin, Rasimah; Yusop, Noorezatty Mohd

2015-02-01

Microarray involves of placing an orderly arrangement of thousands of gene sequences in a grid on a suitable surface. The technology has made a novelty discovery since its development and obtained an increasing attention among researchers. The widespread of microarray technology is largely due to its ability to perform simultaneous analysis of thousands of genes in a massively parallel manner in one experiment. Hence, it provides valuable knowledge on gene interaction and function. The microarray data set typically consists of tens of thousands of genes (variables) from just dozens of samples due to various constraints. Therefore, the sample covariance matrix in Hotelling's T2 statistic is not positive definite and become singular, thus it cannot be inverted. In this research, the Hotelling's T2 statistic is combined with a shrinkage approach as an alternative estimation to estimate the covariance matrix to detect significant gene sets. The use of shrinkage covariance matrix overcomes the singularity problem by converting an unbiased to an improved biased estimator of covariance matrix. Robust trimmed mean is integrated into the shrinkage matrix to reduce the influence of outliers and consequently increases its efficiency. The performance of the proposed method is measured using several simulation designs. The results are expected to outperform existing techniques in many tested conditions.

The Bayesian Score Statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

2000-01-01

We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belinda Hernández

2015-12-01

In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

Bayesian inference with ecological applications

CERN Document Server

Link, William A

2009-01-01

This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

Mapas de taxas epidemiológicas: uma abordagem Bayesiana Maps of epidemiological rates: a Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Renato Martins Assunção

1998-10-01

Full Text Available Neste artigo, apresentamos métodos estatísticos desenvolvidos recentemente para a análise de mapas de taxas de morbidade quando as unidades geográficas possuem pequenas populações de risco. Eles adotam a abordagem Bayesiana e utilizam métodos computacionais intensivos para estimação do risco de cada área. O objetivo dos métodos é separar a variabilidade das taxas devida às diferenças entre as regiões do risco subjacente daquela devida à pura flutuação aleatória. As estimativas de risco possuem um erro quadrático médio total menor que as estimativas usuais. Aplicamos esses novos métodos para estimar o risco de mortalidade infantil nos municípios de Minas Gerais em 1994.This article presents statistical methods recently developed for the analysis of maps of disease rates when the geographic units have small populations at risk. They adopt the Bayesian approach and use intensive computational methods for estimating risk in each area. The objective of the methods is to separate the variability of rates due to differences between regions from the background risk due to pure random fluctuation. Risk estimates have a total mean quadratic error smaller than usual estimates. We apply these new methods to estimate infant mortality risk in the municipalities of the State of Minas Gerais in 1994.

Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

CERN Document Server

Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

2015-01-01

Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

Porcine intestinal mast cells. Evaluation of different fixatives for histochemical staining techniques considering tissue shrinkage

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Rieger

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Staining of mast cells (MCs, including porcine ones, is critically dependent upon the fixation and staining technique. In the pig, mucosal and submucosal MCs do not stain or stain only faintly after formalin fixation. Some fixation methods are particularly recommended for MC staining, for example the fixation with Carnoy or lead salts. Zinc salt fixation (ZSF has been reported to work excellently for the preservation of fixation-sensitive antigens. The aim of this study was to establish a reliable histological method for counting of MCs in the porcine intestinum. For this purpose, different tissue fixation and staining methods that also allow potential subsequent immunohistochemical investigations were evaluated in the porcine mucosa, as well as submucosa of small and large intestine. Tissues were fixed in Carnoy, lead acetate, lead nitrate, Zamboni and ZSF and stained subsequently with either polychromatic methylene blue, alcian blue or toluidine blue. For the first time our study reveals that ZSF, a heavy metal fixative, preserves metachromatic staining of porcine MCs. Zamboni fixation was not suitable for histochemical visualization of MCs in the pig intestine. All other tested fixatives were suitable. Alcian blue and toluidine blue co-stained intestinal goblet cells which made a prima facie identification of MCs difficult. The polychromatic methylene blue proved to be the optimal staining. In order to compare MC counting results of the different fixation methods, tissue shrinkage was taken into account. As even the same fixation caused shrinkage-differences between tissue from small and large intestine, different factors for each single fixation and intestinal localization had to be calculated. Tissue shrinkage varied between 19% and 57%, the highest tissue shrinkage was found after fixation with ZSF in the large intestine, the lowest one in the small intestine after lead acetate fixation. Our study emphasizes that MC counting results from

A Bayesian framework for risk perception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, H.R.N.

2017-01-01

We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

Mechanical properties and polymerization shrinkage of composite resins light-cured using two different lasers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Tae-Wan; Lee, Jang-Hoon; Jeong, Seung-Hwa; Ko, Ching-Chang; Kim, Hyung-Il; Kwon, Yong Hoon

2015-04-01

The purpose of the present study was to investigate the usefulness of 457 and 473 nm lasers for the curing of composite resins during the restoration of damaged tooth cavity. Monochromaticity and coherence are attractive features of laser compared with most other light sources. Better polymerization of composite resins can be expected. Eight composite resins were light cured using these two lasers and a light-emitting diode (LED) light-curing unit (LCU). To evaluate the degrees of polymerization achieved, polymerization shrinkage and flexural and compressive properties were measured and compared. Polymerization shrinkage values by 457 and 473 nm laser, and LED ranged from 10.9 to 26.8, from 13.2 to 26.1, and from 11.5 to 26.3 μm, respectively. The values by 457 nm laser was significantly different from those by 473 and LED LCU (p0.05). For the tested LCUs, no specific LCU could consistently achieve highest strength and modulus from the specimens tested. Two lasers (457 and 473 nm) can polymerize composite resins to the level that LED LCU can achieve despite inconsistent trends of polymerization shrinkage and flexural and compressive properties of the tested specimens.

Bayesian spatio-temporal discard model in a demersal trawl fishery

Science.gov (United States)

Grazia Pennino, M.; Muñoz, Facundo; Conesa, David; López-Quílez, Antonio; Bellido, José M.

2014-07-01

Spatial management of discards has recently been proposed as a useful tool for the protection of juveniles, by reducing discard rates and can be used as a buffer against management errors and recruitment failure. In this study Bayesian hierarchical spatial models have been used to analyze about 440 trawl fishing operations of two different metiers, sampled between 2009 and 2012, in order to improve our understanding of factors that influence the quantity of discards and to identify their spatio-temporal distribution in the study area. Our analysis showed that the relative importance of each variable was different for each metier, with a few similarities. In particular, the random vessel effect and seasonal variability were identified as main driving variables for both metiers. Predictive maps of the abundance of discards and maps of the posterior mean of the spatial component show several hot spots with high discard concentration for each metier. We argue how the seasonal/spatial effects, and the knowledge about the factors influential to discarding, could potentially be exploited as potential mitigation measures for future fisheries management strategies. However, misidentification of hotspots and uncertain predictions can culminate in inappropriate mitigation practices which can sometimes be irreversible. The proposed Bayesian spatial method overcomes these issues, since it offers a unified approach which allows the incorporation of spatial random-effect terms, spatial correlation of the variables and the uncertainty of the parameters in the modeling process, resulting in a better quantification of the uncertainty and accurate predictions.

Mapping local and global variability in plant trait distributions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Butler, Ethan E.; Datta, Abhirup; Flores-Moreno, Habacuc; Chen, Ming; Wythers, Kirk R.; Fazayeli, Farideh; Banerjee, Arindam; Atkin, Owen K.; Kattge, Jens; Amiaud, Bernard; Blonder, Benjamin; Boenisch, Gerhard; Bond-Lamberty, Ben; Brown, Kerry A.; Byun, Chaeho; Campetella, Giandiego; Cerabolini, Bruno E. L.; Cornelissen, Johannes H. C.; Craine, Joseph M.; Craven, Dylan; de Vries, Franciska T.; Díaz, Sandra; Domingues, Tomas F.; Forey, Estelle; González-Melo, Andrés; Gross, Nicolas; Han, Wenxuan; Hattingh, Wesley N.; Hickler, Thomas; Jansen, Steven; Kramer, Koen; Kraft, Nathan J. B.; Kurokawa, Hiroko; Laughlin, Daniel C.; Meir, Patrick; Minden, Vanessa; Niinemets, Ülo; Onoda, Yusuke; Peñuelas, Josep; Read, Quentin; Sack, Lawren; Schamp, Brandon; Soudzilovskaia, Nadejda A.; Spasojevic, Marko J.; Sosinski, Enio; Thornton, Peter E.; Valladares, Fernando; van Bodegom, Peter M.; Williams, Mathew; Wirth, Christian; Reich, Peter B.

2017-12-01

Accurate trait-environment relationships and global maps of plant trait distributions represent a needed stepping stone in global biogeography and are critical constraints of key parameters for land models. Here, we use a global data set of plant traits to map trait distributions closely coupled to photosynthesis and foliar respiration: specific leaf area (SLA), and dry mass-based concentrations of leaf nitrogen (Nm) and phosphorus (Pm); We propose two models to extrapolate geographically sparse point data to continuous spatial surfaces. The first is a categorical model using species mean trait values, categorized into plant functional types (PFTs) and extrapolating to PFT occurrence ranges identified by remote sensing. The second is a Bayesian spatial model that incorporates information about PFT, location and environmental covariates to estimate trait distributions. Both models are further stratified by varying the number of PFTs; The performance of the models was evaluated based on their explanatory and predictive ability. The Bayesian spatial model leveraging the largest number of PFTs produced the best maps; The interpolation of full trait distributions enables a wider diversity of vegetation to be represented across the land surface. These maps may be used as input to Earth System Models and to evaluate other estimates of functional diversity.

Cell shrinkage as a signal to apoptosis in NIH 3T3 fibroblasts

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Friis, Martin B; Friborg, Christel R; Schneider, Linda

2005-01-01

Cell shrinkage is a hallmark of the apoptotic mode of programmed cell death, but it is as yet unclear whether a reduction in cell volume is a primary activation signal of apoptosis. Here we studied the effect of an acute elevation of osmolarity (NaCl or sucrose additions, final osmolarity 687...... accelerated in fibroblasts overexpressing Rac. Conversely, the activation of the extracellular signal-regulated kinase (Erk1/2) was initially significantly decreased. Subsequent to activation of p38, p53 was activated through serine-15 phosphorylation, and active p53 was translocated from the cytosol......: cellular shrinkage activates Rac, with activation of p38, followed by phosphorylation and nuclear translocation of p53, resulting in permeability increases and caspase-3 activation....

Shrinkage and porosity evolution during air-drying of non-cellular food systems: Experimental data versus mathematical modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Thanh Khuong; Khalloufi, Seddik; Mondor, Martin; Ratti, Cristina

2018-01-01

In the present work, the impact of glass transition on shrinkage of non-cellular food systems (NCFS) during air-drying will be assessed from experimental data and the interpretation of a 'shrinkage' function involved in a mathematical model. Two NCFS made from a mixture of water/maltodextrin/agar (w/w/w: 1/0.15/0.015) were created out of maltodextrins with dextrose equivalent 19 (MD19) or 36 (MD36). The NCFS made with MD19 had 30°C higher Tg than those with MD36. This information indicated that, during drying, the NCFS with MD19 would pass from rubbery to glassy state sooner than NCFS MD36, for which glass transition only happens close to the end of drying. For the two NCFS, porosity and volume reduction as a function of moisture content were captured with high accuracy when represented by the mathematical models previously developed. No significant differences in porosity and in maximum shrinkage between both samples during drying were observed. As well, no change in the slope of the shrinkage curve as a function of moisture content was perceived. These results indicate that glass transition alone is not a determinant factor in changes of porosity or volume during air-drying. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

In-Situ Observation of Sintering Shrinkage of UO{sub 2} Compacts Derived from Different Powder Routes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rhee, Young Woo; Oh, Jang Soo; Kim, Dong Joo; Kim, Keon Sik; Kim, Jong Hun; Yang, Jae Ho; Koo, Yang Hyun [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-10-15

In-situ observations on the shrinkage of green pellets with precisely controlled dimensions were carefully conducted by using TOM during H2 atmosphere sintering. The shrinkage retardation in IDR-UO{sub 2} might be attributed to the larger primary particle size of IDRUO{sub 2} than those of ADU- and AUC- UO{sub 2} powders. It would be important to understand the different sintering characteristics of UO{sub 2} powders according to the powder routes, when it comes to designing a new sintering process or choosing a sintering additive for new fuel pellet like PCI (Pellet Cladding Interaction) remedy pellet. In this paper, we have investigated the initial and intermediate sintering shrinkage of UO{sub 2} from different powder routes by in-situ observation of green samples during H2 atmosphere sintering. Effect of powder characteristics of three different UO{sub 2} powders on the initial and intermediate sintering were closely reviewed including crystal structure, powder size, specific surface area, primary crystal size, and O/U ratio.

Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

1998-12-01

Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

Bayesian Image Restoration Using a Large-Scale Total Patch Variation Prior

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Chen

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Edge-preserving Bayesian restorations using nonquadratic priors are often inefficient in restoring continuous variations and tend to produce block artifacts around edges in ill-posed inverse image restorations. To overcome this, we have proposed a spatial adaptive (SA prior with improved performance. However, this SA prior restoration suffers from high computational cost and the unguaranteed convergence problem. Concerning these issues, this paper proposes a Large-scale Total Patch Variation (LS-TPV Prior model for Bayesian image restoration. In this model, the prior for each pixel is defined as a singleton conditional probability, which is in a mixture prior form of one patch similarity prior and one weight entropy prior. A joint MAP estimation is thus built to ensure the iteration monotonicity. The intensive calculation of patch distances is greatly alleviated by the parallelization of Compute Unified Device Architecture(CUDA. Experiments with both simulated and real data validate the good performance of the proposed restoration.

Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

A Bayesian framework for estimating moment magnitude and its uncertainty from macroseismic intensity measures

Science.gov (United States)

Kawabata, E.; Main, I. G.; Naylor, M.; Chandler, R. E.

2016-12-01

In moderate to low seismicity areas such as the UK, earthquakes represent a small but not negligible risk to sensitive structures such as nuclear power plants. As a part of the safety case in the planning and regulation of such structures, seismic activity must first be monitored and quantified to form a catalogue of past events. In a low or moderate seismicity zone, most of our knowledge of the most significant events comes from macroseismic intensity measures from the pre-instrumental period (before 1900). These historical records must then be combined and calibrated with modern analogue and digitally-recorded instrumental data on a common source magnitude scale, the most useful of which is the moment magnitude. The result is a unified catalogue that can be used for probabilistic seismic hazard analysis. An isoseismal map involves a set of contours that enclose the areas at which the event was felt at particular intensity values or higher, called felt areas. It has been common practice to draw these contours by hand with varying degrees of subjectivity. Here, we demonstrate a Bayesian method for constructing such maps objectively from macroseismic intensity measures and their observed locations. It involves using mathematical expressions to represent concentric ellipses and estimating their optimal parameters and uncertainties in a Bayesian framework. Inferred fault orientations in the UK are predominantly vertical, so the elliptical assumption is reasonable at least to first order or as a null hypothesis. Relevant physical constraints are used as priors where available. The resulting posterior distributions are used to calculate felt area at a given intensity, as well as a probability density function for the inferred epicentre. We then describe another Bayesian approach for deriving moment magnitude from felt areas based on their relationship and known constraints such as the frequency-magnitude distribution. The use of Bayesian inference allows us to quantify

Design and evaluation of high-volume fly ash (HVFA) concrete mixes, report D : creep, shrinkage, and abrasion resistance of HVFA concrete.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-01

The main objective of this study was to determine the effect on shrinkage, creep, : and abrasion resistance of high-volume fly ash (HVFA) concrete. The HVFA concrete : test program consisted of comparing the shrinkage, creep, and abrasion performance...

Sparse electromagnetic imaging using nonlinear iterative shrinkage thresholding

KAUST Repository

Desmal, Abdulla; Bagci, Hakan

2015-01-01

A sparse nonlinear electromagnetic imaging scheme is proposed for reconstructing dielectric contrast of investigation domains from measured fields. The proposed approach constructs the optimization problem by introducing the sparsity constraint to the data misfit between the scattered fields expressed as a nonlinear function of the contrast and the measured fields and solves it using the nonlinear iterative shrinkage thresholding algorithm. The thresholding is applied to the result of every nonlinear Landweber iteration to enforce the sparsity constraint. Numerical results demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in reconstructing sparse dielectric profiles.

Sparse electromagnetic imaging using nonlinear iterative shrinkage thresholding

KAUST Repository

Desmal, Abdulla

2015-04-13

A sparse nonlinear electromagnetic imaging scheme is proposed for reconstructing dielectric contrast of investigation domains from measured fields. The proposed approach constructs the optimization problem by introducing the sparsity constraint to the data misfit between the scattered fields expressed as a nonlinear function of the contrast and the measured fields and solves it using the nonlinear iterative shrinkage thresholding algorithm. The thresholding is applied to the result of every nonlinear Landweber iteration to enforce the sparsity constraint. Numerical results demonstrate the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed method in reconstructing sparse dielectric profiles.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

C-O-H-S magmatic fluid system in shrinkage bubbles of melt inclusions

Science.gov (United States)

Robidoux, P.; Frezzotti, M. L.; Hauri, E. H.; Aiuppa, A.

2016-12-01

Magmatic volatiles include multiple phases in the C-O-H-S system of shrinkage bubbles for which a conceptual model is still unclear during melt inclusion formation [1,2,3,4]. The present study aims to qualitatively explore the evolution of the volatile migration, during and after the formation of the shrinkage bubble in melt inclusions trapped by olivines from Holocene to present at San Cristóbal volcano (Nicaragua), Central American Volcanic Arc (CAVA). Combined scanning electron microscope (SEM) and Raman spectroscopy observations allow to define the mineral-fluid phases inside typical shrinkage bubbles at ambient temperature. The existence of residual liquid water is demonstrated in the shrinkage bubbles of naturally quenched melt inclusion and this water could represents the principal agent for chemical reactions with other dissolved ionic species (SO42-, CO32-, etc.) and major elements (Mg, Fe, Cu, etc.) [4,5]. With the objective of following the cooling story of the bubble-inclusion system, the new methodological approach here estimate the interval of equilibrium temperatures for each SEM-Raman identified mineral phase (carbonates, hydrous carbonates, sulfurs, sulfates, etc.). Finally, two distinct mechanisms are proposed to describe the evolution of this heterogeneous fluid system in bubble samples at San Cristóbal which imply a close re-examination for similar volcanoes in subduction zone settings: (1) bubbles are already contracted and filled by volatiles by diffusion processes from the glass and leading to a C-O-H-S fluid-glass reaction enriched in Mg-Fe-Cu elements (2) bubbles are formed by oversaturation of the volatiles from the magma which is producing an immiscible metal-rich fluid. [1]Moore et al. (2015). Am. Mineral. 100, 806-823 [2]Wallace et al. (2015). Am. Mineral. 100, 787-794 [3]Lowenstern (2015). Am. Mineral. 100, 672-673 [4]Esposito, et al. (2016). Am. Mineral. 101, 1691-1708 [5]Kamenetsky et al. (2001). Earth Planet. Sci. Lett. 184, 685-702

Wavelet-Bayesian inference of cosmic strings embedded in the cosmic microwave background

Science.gov (United States)

McEwen, J. D.; Feeney, S. M.; Peiris, H. V.; Wiaux, Y.; Ringeval, C.; Bouchet, F. R.

2017-12-01

Cosmic strings are a well-motivated extension to the standard cosmological model and could induce a subdominant component in the anisotropies of the cosmic microwave background (CMB), in addition to the standard inflationary component. The detection of strings, while observationally challenging, would provide a direct probe of physics at very high-energy scales. We develop a framework for cosmic string inference from observations of the CMB made over the celestial sphere, performing a Bayesian analysis in wavelet space where the string-induced CMB component has distinct statistical properties to the standard inflationary component. Our wavelet-Bayesian framework provides a principled approach to compute the posterior distribution of the string tension Gμ and the Bayesian evidence ratio comparing the string model to the standard inflationary model. Furthermore, we present a technique to recover an estimate of any string-induced CMB map embedded in observational data. Using Planck-like simulations, we demonstrate the application of our framework and evaluate its performance. The method is sensitive to Gμ ∼ 5 × 10-7 for Nambu-Goto string simulations that include an integrated Sachs-Wolfe contribution only and do not include any recombination effects, before any parameters of the analysis are optimized. The sensitivity of the method compares favourably with other techniques applied to the same simulations.

Investigation of Shrinkage Defect in Castings by Quantitative Ishikawa Diagram

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chokkalingam B.

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Metal casting process involves processes such as pattern making, moulding and melting etc. Casting defects occur due to combination of various processes even though efforts are taken to control them. The first step in the defect analysis is to identify the major casting defect among the many casting defects. Then the analysis is to be made to find the root cause of the particular defect. Moreover, it is especially difficult to identify the root causes of the defect. Therefore, a systematic method is required to identify the root cause of the defect among possible causes, consequently specific remedial measures have to be implemented to control them. This paper presents a systematic procedure to identify the root cause of shrinkage defect in an automobile body casting (SG 500/7 and control it by the application of Pareto chart and Ishikawa diagram. with quantitative Weightage. It was found that the root causes were larger volume section in the cope, insufficient feeding of riser and insufficient poured metal in the riser. The necessary remedial measures were taken and castings were reproduced. The shrinkage defect in the castings was completely eliminated.

Recycling of rubble from building demolition for low-shrinkage concretes.

Science.gov (United States)

Corinaldesi, Valeria; Moriconi, Giacomo

2010-04-01

In this project concrete mixtures were prepared that were characterized by low ductility due to desiccation by using debris from building demolition, which after a suitable treatment was used as aggregate for partial replacement of natural aggregates. The recycled aggregate used came from a recycling plant, in which rubble from building demolition was selected, crushed, cleaned, sieved, and graded. Such aggregates are known to be more porous as indicated by the Saturated Surface Dry (SSD) moisture content. The recycled concrete used as aggregates were added to the concrete mixture in order to study their influence on the fresh and hardened concrete properties. They were added either after water pre-soaking or in dry condition, in order to evaluate the influence of moisture in aggregates on the performance of concrete containing recycled aggregate. In particular, the effect of internal curing, due to the use of such aggregates, was studied. Concrete behavior due to desiccation under dehydration was studied by means of both drying shrinkage test and German angle test, through which shrinkage under the restrained condition of early age concrete can be evaluated. Copyright 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Specimen Shrinkage and Its Influence on Margin Assessment in Breast Cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Badrul H. Yeap

2007-07-01

Conclusion: Breast specimens undergo shrinkage after histological fixation, losing more than a third of their original closest free margin, whilst the tumour itself does not shrink substantially. This phenomenon has vital implications in the accuracy of margin analysis and consequent decisions on further management, including re-operation and the institution of adjuvant radiotherapy.

Predicting coastal cliff erosion using a Bayesian probabilistic model

Science.gov (United States)

Hapke, Cheryl J.; Plant, Nathaniel G.

2010-01-01

Regional coastal cliff retreat is difficult to model due to the episodic nature of failures and the along-shore variability of retreat events. There is a growing demand, however, for predictive models that can be used to forecast areas vulnerable to coastal erosion hazards. Increasingly, probabilistic models are being employed that require data sets of high temporal density to define the joint probability density function that relates forcing variables (e.g. wave conditions) and initial conditions (e.g. cliff geometry) to erosion events. In this study we use a multi-parameter Bayesian network to investigate correlations between key variables that control and influence variations in cliff retreat processes. The network uses Bayesian statistical methods to estimate event probabilities using existing observations. Within this framework, we forecast the spatial distribution of cliff retreat along two stretches of cliffed coast in Southern California. The input parameters are the height and slope of the cliff, a descriptor of material strength based on the dominant cliff-forming lithology, and the long-term cliff erosion rate that represents prior behavior. The model is forced using predicted wave impact hours. Results demonstrate that the Bayesian approach is well-suited to the forward modeling of coastal cliff retreat, with the correct outcomes forecast in 70–90% of the modeled transects. The model also performs well in identifying specific locations of high cliff erosion, thus providing a foundation for hazard mapping. This approach can be employed to predict cliff erosion at time-scales ranging from storm events to the impacts of sea-level rise at the century-scale.

3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

2017-01-01

This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

BAYESIAN SEMI-BLIND COMPONENT SEPARATION FOR FOREGROUND REMOVAL IN INTERFEROMETRIC 21 cm OBSERVATIONS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhang, Le; Timbie, Peter T. [Department of Physics, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706 (United States); Bunn, Emory F. [Physics Department, University of Richmond, Richmond, VA 23173 (United States); Karakci, Ata; Korotkov, Andrei; Tucker, Gregory S. [Department of Physics, Brown University, 182 Hope Street, Providence, RI 02912 (United States); Sutter, P. M. [Center for Cosmology and Astro-Particle Physics, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Wandelt, Benjamin D., E-mail: lzhang263@wisc.edu [Department of Physics, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign, 1110 W Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States)

2016-01-15

In this paper, we present a new Bayesian semi-blind approach for foreground removal in observations of the 21 cm signal measured by interferometers. The technique, which we call H i Expectation–Maximization Independent Component Analysis (HIEMICA), is an extension of the Independent Component Analysis technique developed for two-dimensional (2D) cosmic microwave background maps to three-dimensional (3D) 21 cm cosmological signals measured by interferometers. This technique provides a fully Bayesian inference of power spectra and maps and separates the foregrounds from the signal based on the diversity of their power spectra. Relying only on the statistical independence of the components, this approach can jointly estimate the 3D power spectrum of the 21 cm signal, as well as the 2D angular power spectrum and the frequency dependence of each foreground component, without any prior assumptions about the foregrounds. This approach has been tested extensively by applying it to mock data from interferometric 21 cm intensity mapping observations under idealized assumptions of instrumental effects. We also discuss the impact when the noise properties are not known completely. As a first step toward solving the 21 cm power spectrum analysis problem, we compare the semi-blind HIEMICA technique to the commonly used Principal Component Analysis. Under the same idealized circumstances, the proposed technique provides significantly improved recovery of the power spectrum. This technique can be applied in a straightforward manner to all 21 cm interferometric observations, including epoch of reionization measurements, and can be extended to single-dish observations as well.

TH-E-BRF-01: Exploiting Tumor Shrinkage in Split-Course Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Unkelbach, J; Craft, D; Hong, T; Papp, D; Wolfgang, J; Bortfeld, T; Ramakrishnan, J; Salari, E

2014-01-01

Purpose: In split-course radiotherapy, a patient is treated in several stages separated by weeks or months. This regimen has been motivated by radiobiological considerations. However, using modern image-guidance, it also provides an approach to reduce normal tissue dose by exploiting tumor shrinkage. In this work, we consider the optimal design of split-course treatments, motivated by the clinical management of large liver tumors for which normal liver dose constraints prohibit the administration of an ablative radiation dose in a single treatment. Methods: We introduce a dynamic tumor model that incorporates three factors: radiation induced cell kill, tumor shrinkage, and tumor cell repopulation. The design of splitcourse radiotherapy is formulated as a mathematical optimization problem in which the total dose to the liver is minimized, subject to delivering the prescribed dose to the tumor. Based on the model, we gain insight into the optimal administration of radiation over time, i.e. the optimal treatment gaps and dose levels. Results: We analyze treatments consisting of two stages in detail. The analysis confirms the intuition that the second stage should be delivered just before the tumor size reaches a minimum and repopulation overcompensates shrinking. Furthermore, it was found that, for a large range of model parameters, approximately one third of the dose should be delivered in the first stage. The projected benefit of split-course treatments in terms of liver sparing depends on model assumptions. However, the model predicts large liver dose reductions by more than a factor of two for plausible model parameters. Conclusion: The analysis of the tumor model suggests that substantial reduction in normal tissue dose can be achieved by exploiting tumor shrinkage via an optimal design of multi-stage treatments. This suggests taking a fresh look at split-course radiotherapy for selected disease sites where substantial tumor regression translates into reduced

TH-E-BRF-01: Exploiting Tumor Shrinkage in Split-Course Radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Unkelbach, J; Craft, D; Hong, T; Papp, D; Wolfgang, J; Bortfeld, T [Massachusetts General Hospital, Boston, MA (United States); Ramakrishnan, J [University of Wisconsin, Madison, Wisconsin (United States); Salari, E [Wichita State University, Wichita, KS (United States)

2014-06-15

Purpose: In split-course radiotherapy, a patient is treated in several stages separated by weeks or months. This regimen has been motivated by radiobiological considerations. However, using modern image-guidance, it also provides an approach to reduce normal tissue dose by exploiting tumor shrinkage. In this work, we consider the optimal design of split-course treatments, motivated by the clinical management of large liver tumors for which normal liver dose constraints prohibit the administration of an ablative radiation dose in a single treatment. Methods: We introduce a dynamic tumor model that incorporates three factors: radiation induced cell kill, tumor shrinkage, and tumor cell repopulation. The design of splitcourse radiotherapy is formulated as a mathematical optimization problem in which the total dose to the liver is minimized, subject to delivering the prescribed dose to the tumor. Based on the model, we gain insight into the optimal administration of radiation over time, i.e. the optimal treatment gaps and dose levels. Results: We analyze treatments consisting of two stages in detail. The analysis confirms the intuition that the second stage should be delivered just before the tumor size reaches a minimum and repopulation overcompensates shrinking. Furthermore, it was found that, for a large range of model parameters, approximately one third of the dose should be delivered in the first stage. The projected benefit of split-course treatments in terms of liver sparing depends on model assumptions. However, the model predicts large liver dose reductions by more than a factor of two for plausible model parameters. Conclusion: The analysis of the tumor model suggests that substantial reduction in normal tissue dose can be achieved by exploiting tumor shrinkage via an optimal design of multi-stage treatments. This suggests taking a fresh look at split-course radiotherapy for selected disease sites where substantial tumor regression translates into reduced

Shrinkage stress compensation in composite-restored teeth: relaxation or hygroscopic expansion?

Science.gov (United States)

Meriwether, Laurel A; Blen, Bernard J; Benson, Jarred H; Hatch, Robert H; Tantbirojn, Daranee; Versluis, Antheunis

2013-05-01

Polymerization of composite restorations causes shrinkage, which deforms and thus stresses restored teeth. This shrinkage deformation, however, has been shown to decrease over time. The objective was to investigate whether this reduction was caused by hygroscopic expansion or stress relaxation of the composite/tooth complex. Extracted molars were mounted in rigid stainless steel rings with four spherical reference areas. Twelve molars were prepared with large mesioocclusodistal slots, etched, bonded, and restored with a composite material (Filtek Supreme, 3M ESPE) in two horizontal layers. Ten intact molars were the controls. The teeth were stored either in deionized water or silicone oil. They were scanned after preparation (baseline), restoration (0-week), and after 1, 2, and 4 weeks storage. Scanned tooth surfaces were aligned with the baseline using the unchanged reference areas. Cuspal flexure was calculated from lingual and buccal surface deformation. To verify that the restorations had remained bonded, dye penetration at the interfaces was assessed using basic fuchsin dye. Statistical assessment was done by ANOVA followed by Student-Newman-Keuls post hoc test (p=0.05). Substantial cuspal contraction was found for restored teeth after the composite was cured (13-14 μm cuspal flexure). After 4 weeks cuspal contraction decreased significantly for restored teeth stored in water (7.3 ± 3.2) but not for those stored in silicone oil (11.4 ± 5.0). Dye penetration of the occlusal interface was minimal in both groups (106 ± 87 and 21 ± 28 μm in water and silicone oil, respectively). The results suggest that hygroscopic expansion was the main mechanism for shrinkage stress compensation. Copyright © 2013 Academy of Dental Materials. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

Influence of nano-material on the expansive and shrinkage soil behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Taha, Mohd Raihan; Taha, Omer Muhie Eldeen

2012-01-01

This paper presents an experimental study performed on four types of soils mixed with three types of nano-material of different percentages. The expansion and shrinkage tests were conducted to investigate the effect of three type of nano-materials (nano-clay, nano-alumina, and nano-copper) additive on repressing strains in compacted residual soil mixed with different ratios of bentonite (S1 = 0 % bentonite, S2 = 5 % bentonite, S3 = 10 % bentonite, and S4 = 20 % bentonite). The soil specimens were compacted under the condition of maximum dry unit weight and optimum water content (w opt ) using standard compaction test. The physical and mechanical results of the treated samples were determined. The untreated soil values were used as control points for comparison purposes. It was found that with the addition of optimum percentage of nano-material, both the swell strain and shrinkage strain reduced. The results show that nano-material decreases the development of desiccation cracks on the surface of compacted samples without decrease in the hydraulic conductivity.

Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

2003-01-01

been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

2015-01-01

The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

CERN Document Server

Zeevat, Henk

2015-01-01

The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

Shrinkage-thresholding enhanced born iterative method for solving 2D inverse electromagnetic scattering problem

KAUST Repository

Desmal, Abdulla; Bagci, Hakan

2014-01-01

A numerical framework that incorporates recently developed iterative shrinkage thresholding (IST) algorithms within the Born iterative method (BIM) is proposed for solving the two-dimensional inverse electromagnetic scattering problem. IST

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stein, A.

2004-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

Low baseline and subsequent higher aortic abdominal aneurysm FDG uptake are associated with poor sac shrinkage post endovascular repair

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marie, Pierre-Yves [CHRU-Nancy, Universite de Lorraine, Nuclear Medecine and Nancyclotep Platform, Nancy (France); INSERM, University of Lorraine, UMR 1116, Nancy (France); CHRU-Nancy, Hopitaux de BRABOIS, Service de Medecine Nucleaire, Vandoeuvre (France); Plissonnier, Didier; Rouer, Martin [CHU-Rouen, Department of Vascular Surgery, Rouen (France); Bravetti, Stephanie [CHRU-Nancy, Universite de Lorraine, Department of Radiology, Nancy (France); Coscas, Raphael [Hopital Ambroise Pare, APHP, Chirurgie Vasculaire, Boulogne-Billancourt (France); Haulon, Stephan [CHU-Lille, Department of Vascular Surgery, Lille (France); Mandry, Damien [CHRU-Nancy, Universite de Lorraine, Department of Radiology, Nancy (France); INSERM, University of Lorraine, UMR 947, Nancy (France); Alsac, Jean-Marc [grid.414093.b, APHP, HEGP, Department of Vascular Surgery, Paris (France); Malikov, Serguei; Settembre, Nicla [CHRU-Nancy, Universite de Lorraine, Vascular Surgery, Nancy (France); Goueffic, Yann [CHU-Nantes, Department of Vascular Surgery, Nantes (France); Morel, Olivier [CHU-Besancon, Department of Nuclear Medecine, Besancon (France); Roch, Veronique [CHRU-Nancy, Universite de Lorraine, Nuclear Medecine and Nancyclotep Platform, Nancy (France); Micard, Emilien [INSERM, University of Lorraine, UMR 947, Nancy (France); INSERM, CHRU-Nancy, Universite de Lorraine, CIC-1433, FCRIN INI-CRCT, Nancy (France); Lamiral, Zohra [INSERM, CHRU-Nancy, Universite de Lorraine, CIC-1433, FCRIN INI-CRCT, Nancy (France); Michel, Jean-Baptiste [INSERM, Bichat, UMR 698, Paris (France); Rossignol, Patrick [INSERM, University of Lorraine, UMR 1116, Nancy (France); INSERM, CHRU-Nancy, Universite de Lorraine, CIC-1433, FCRIN INI-CRCT, Nancy (France)

2018-04-15

The growth phases of medically treated abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are frequently associated with an {sup 18}F-fluorodesoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) pattern involving low baseline and subsequent higher FDG uptake. However, the FDG-PET patterns associated with the endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of larger AAA are presently unknown. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serial AAA FDG uptake measurements, obtained before EVAR and 1 and 6 months post-intervention and subsequent sac shrinkage at 6 months, a well-recognized indicator of successful repair. Thirty-three AAA patients referred for EVAR (maximal diameter: 55.4 ± 6.0 mm, total volume: 205.7 ± 63.0 mL) underwent FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT) before EVAR and at 1 and 6 months thereafter, with the monitoring of AAA volume and of a maximal standardized FDG uptake [SUVmax] averaged between the axial slices encompassing the AAA. Sac shrinkage was highly variable and could be stratified into three terciles: a first tercile in which shrinkage was absent or very limited (0-29 mL) and a third tercile with pronounced shrinkage (56-165 mL). SUVmax values were relatively low at baseline in the 1st tercile (SUVmax: 1.69 ± 0.33), but markedly increased at 6 months (2.42 ± 0.69, p = 0.02 vs. baseline). These SUV max values were by contrast much higher at baseline in the 3rd tercile (SUVmax: 2.53 ± 0.83 p = 0.009 vs. 1st tercile) and stable at 6 months (2.49 ± 0.80), while intermediate results were documented in the 2nd tercile. Lastly, the amount of sac shrinkage, expressed in absolute values or in percentages of baseline AAA volumes, was positively correlated with baseline SUVmax (p = 0.001 for both). A low pre-EVAR FDG uptake and increased AAA FDG uptake at 6 months are associated with reduced sac shrinkage. This sequential FDG-PET pattern is similar to that already shown to accompany growth phases of medically treated AAA. (orig.)

Low baseline and subsequent higher aortic abdominal aneurysm FDG uptake are associated with poor sac shrinkage post endovascular repair

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marie, Pierre-Yves; Plissonnier, Didier; Rouer, Martin; Bravetti, Stephanie; Coscas, Raphael; Haulon, Stephan; Mandry, Damien; Alsac, Jean-Marc; Malikov, Serguei; Settembre, Nicla; Goueffic, Yann; Morel, Olivier; Roch, Veronique; Micard, Emilien; Lamiral, Zohra; Michel, Jean-Baptiste; Rossignol, Patrick

2018-01-01

The growth phases of medically treated abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA) are frequently associated with an 18 F-fluorodesoxyglucose positron emission tomography (FDG-PET) pattern involving low baseline and subsequent higher FDG uptake. However, the FDG-PET patterns associated with the endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR) of larger AAA are presently unknown. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between serial AAA FDG uptake measurements, obtained before EVAR and 1 and 6 months post-intervention and subsequent sac shrinkage at 6 months, a well-recognized indicator of successful repair. Thirty-three AAA patients referred for EVAR (maximal diameter: 55.4 ± 6.0 mm, total volume: 205.7 ± 63.0 mL) underwent FDG-PET/computed tomography (CT) before EVAR and at 1 and 6 months thereafter, with the monitoring of AAA volume and of a maximal standardized FDG uptake [SUVmax] averaged between the axial slices encompassing the AAA. Sac shrinkage was highly variable and could be stratified into three terciles: a first tercile in which shrinkage was absent or very limited (0-29 mL) and a third tercile with pronounced shrinkage (56-165 mL). SUVmax values were relatively low at baseline in the 1st tercile (SUVmax: 1.69 ± 0.33), but markedly increased at 6 months (2.42 ± 0.69, p = 0.02 vs. baseline). These SUV max values were by contrast much higher at baseline in the 3rd tercile (SUVmax: 2.53 ± 0.83 p = 0.009 vs. 1st tercile) and stable at 6 months (2.49 ± 0.80), while intermediate results were documented in the 2nd tercile. Lastly, the amount of sac shrinkage, expressed in absolute values or in percentages of baseline AAA volumes, was positively correlated with baseline SUVmax (p = 0.001 for both). A low pre-EVAR FDG uptake and increased AAA FDG uptake at 6 months are associated with reduced sac shrinkage. This sequential FDG-PET pattern is similar to that already shown to accompany growth phases of medically treated AAA. (orig.)

12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

Measurement with corrugated tubes of early-age autogenous shrinkage of cement-based material

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tian, Qian; Jensen, Ole Mejlhede

2009-01-01

The use of a special corrugated mould enables transformation of volume strain into horizontal, linear strain measurement in the fluid stage. This allows continuous measurement of the autogenous shrinkage of cement-based materials since casting, and also effectively eliminates unwanted influence...

ISTA-Net: Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm Inspired Deep Network for Image Compressive Sensing

KAUST Repository

Zhang, Jian; Ghanem, Bernard

2017-01-01

and the performance/speed of network-based ones. We propose a novel structured deep network, dubbed ISTA-Net, which is inspired by the Iterative Shrinkage-Thresholding Algorithm (ISTA) for optimizing a general $l_1$ norm CS reconstruction model. ISTA-Net essentially

A Nonparametric Bayesian Approach For Emission Tomography Reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barat, Eric; Dautremer, Thomas

2007-01-01

We introduce a PET reconstruction algorithm following a nonparametric Bayesian (NPB) approach. In contrast with Expectation Maximization (EM), the proposed technique does not rely on any space discretization. Namely, the activity distribution--normalized emission intensity of the spatial poisson process--is considered as a spatial probability density and observations are the projections of random emissions whose distribution has to be estimated. This approach is nonparametric in the sense that the quantity of interest belongs to the set of probability measures on R k (for reconstruction in k-dimensions) and it is Bayesian in the sense that we define a prior directly on this spatial measure. In this context, we propose to model the nonparametric probability density as an infinite mixture of multivariate normal distributions. As a prior for this mixture we consider a Dirichlet Process Mixture (DPM) with a Normal-Inverse Wishart (NIW) model as base distribution of the Dirichlet Process. As in EM-family reconstruction, we use a data augmentation scheme where the set of hidden variables are the emission locations for each observed line of response in the continuous object space. Thanks to the data augmentation, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm (Gibbs sampler) which is able to generate draws from the posterior distribution of the spatial intensity. A difference with EM is that one step of the Gibbs sampler corresponds to the generation of emission locations while only the expected number of emissions per pixel/voxel is used in EM. Another key difference is that the estimated spatial intensity is a continuous function such that there is no need to compute a projection matrix. Finally, draws from the intensity posterior distribution allow the estimation of posterior functionnals like the variance or confidence intervals. Results are presented for simulated data based on a 2D brain phantom and compared to Bayesian MAP-EM

Report D : self-consolidating concrete (SCC) for infrastructure elements - creep, shrinkage and abrasion resistance.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-08-01

Concrete specimens were fabricated for shrinkage, creep, and abrasion resistance : testing. Variations of self-consolidating concrete (SCC) and conventional concrete were : all tested. The results were compared to previous similar testing programs an...

Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

2018-02-01

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

Science.gov (United States)

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Bayesian policy reuse

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rosman, Benjamin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

2014-01-01

The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian

The effect of mold surface topography on plastic parat in-process shrinkage in injection molding

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arlø, Uffe Rolf; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard; Kjær, Erik Michael

2003-01-01

An experimental study of the effect of mold surface roughness on in-process in-flow linear part shrinkage in injection molding has been carried out. The investigation is based on an experimental two-cavity tool, where the cavities have different surface topographies, but are otherwise identical....... The study has been carried out for typical commercial polystyrene and polypropylene grades. The relationship between mold surface topography and linear shrinkage has been investigated with an experimental two-cavity mold producing simple rectangular parts with the nominal dimensions 1 x 25 x 50 mm (see...... figure 1). The cavities have different surface topographies on one side, but are otherwise identical (see discussion of other contribution factors)....

Early age shrinkage pattern of concrete on replacement of fine aggregate with industrial by-product

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R.K. Mishra

2016-10-01

Full Text Available This is an experimental work carried out to investigate early age shrinkage pattern of concrete, prepared, on 50% replacement of industrial by-product (like pond ash and granulated blast furnace slag as fine aggregate using OPC, PPC and PSC as a binder. This is to observe the effect of pond ash and slag as they are having some cementitious properties and effect of cement type is also discussed. All the mixes were prepared keeping in view of pumpable concrete without any super plasticizers. Higher shrinkage value indicates the presence of more bleed water or internal moisture. It is concluded that slag is the best option for fine aggregate replacement for concrete making and durable structure.

Entropy, Information Theory, Information Geometry and Bayesian Inference in Data, Signal and Image Processing and Inverse Problems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Mohammad-Djafari

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The main content of this review article is first to review the main inference tools using Bayes rule, the maximum entropy principle (MEP, information theory, relative entropy and the Kullback–Leibler (KL divergence, Fisher information and its corresponding geometries. For each of these tools, the precise context of their use is described. The second part of the paper is focused on the ways these tools have been used in data, signal and image processing and in the inverse problems, which arise in different physical sciences and engineering applications. A few examples of the applications are described: entropy in independent components analysis (ICA and in blind source separation, Fisher information in data model selection, different maximum entropy-based methods in time series spectral estimation and in linear inverse problems and, finally, the Bayesian inference for general inverse problems. Some original materials concerning the approximate Bayesian computation (ABC and, in particular, the variational Bayesian approximation (VBA methods are also presented. VBA is used for proposing an alternative Bayesian computational tool to the classical Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods. We will also see that VBA englobes joint maximum a posteriori (MAP, as well as the different expectation-maximization (EM algorithms as particular cases.

A Bayesian Framework That Integrates Heterogeneous Data for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Santra, Tapesh, E-mail: tapesh.santra@ucd.ie [Systems Biology Ireland, University College Dublin, Dublin (Ireland)

2014-05-20

Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental data is a fundamental challenge in systems biology. A number of computational approaches have been developed to infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles. However, expression profiles alone are proving to be insufficient for inferring GRN topologies with reasonable accuracy. Recently, it has been shown that integration of external data sources (such as gene and protein sequence information, gene ontology data, protein–protein interactions) with mRNA expression profiles may increase the reliability of the inference process. Here, I propose a new approach that incorporates transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) and physical protein interactions (PPI) among transcription factors (TFs) in a Bayesian variable selection (BVS) algorithm which can infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles subjected to genetic perturbations. Using real experimental data, I show that the integration of TFBS and PPI data with mRNA expression profiles leads to significantly more accurate networks than those inferred from expression profiles alone. Additionally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with a series of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression-based network inference methods that can also incorporate prior knowledge in the inference framework. The results of this comparison suggest that BVS can outperform LASSO regression-based method in some circumstances.

A Bayesian Framework That Integrates Heterogeneous Data for Inferring Gene Regulatory Networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Santra, Tapesh

2014-01-01

Reconstruction of gene regulatory networks (GRNs) from experimental data is a fundamental challenge in systems biology. A number of computational approaches have been developed to infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles. However, expression profiles alone are proving to be insufficient for inferring GRN topologies with reasonable accuracy. Recently, it has been shown that integration of external data sources (such as gene and protein sequence information, gene ontology data, protein–protein interactions) with mRNA expression profiles may increase the reliability of the inference process. Here, I propose a new approach that incorporates transcription factor binding sites (TFBS) and physical protein interactions (PPI) among transcription factors (TFs) in a Bayesian variable selection (BVS) algorithm which can infer GRNs from mRNA expression profiles subjected to genetic perturbations. Using real experimental data, I show that the integration of TFBS and PPI data with mRNA expression profiles leads to significantly more accurate networks than those inferred from expression profiles alone. Additionally, the performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with a series of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression-based network inference methods that can also incorporate prior knowledge in the inference framework. The results of this comparison suggest that BVS can outperform LASSO regression-based method in some circumstances.

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

2014-01-01

Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Polymerization shrinkage of different types of composite resins and microleakage with and without liner in class II cavities.

Science.gov (United States)

Karaman, E; Ozgunaltay, G

2014-01-01

To determine the volumetric polymerization shrinkage of four different types of composite resin and to evaluate microleakage of these materials in class II (MOD) cavities with and without a resin-modified glass ionomer cement (RMGIC) liner, in vitro. One hundred twenty-eight extracted human upper premolar teeth were used. After the teeth were divided into eight groups (n=16), standardized MOD cavities were prepared. Then the teeth were restored with different resin composites (Filtek Supreme XT, Filtek P 60, Filtek Silorane, Filtek Z 250) with and without a RMGIC liner (Vitrebond). The restorations were finished and polished after 24 hours. Following thermocycling, the teeth were immersed in 0.5% basic fuchsin for 24 hours, then midsagitally sectioned in a mesiodistal plane and examined for microleakage using a stereomicroscope. The volumetric polymerization shrinkage of materials was measured using a video imaging device (Acuvol, Bisco, Inc). Data were statistically analyzed with Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney U-tests. All teeth showed microleakage, but placement of RMGIC liner reduced microleakage. No statistically significant differences were found in microleakage between the teeth restored without RMGIC liner (p>0.05). Filtek Silorane showed significantly less volumetric polymerization shrinkage than the methacrylate-based composite resins (pcomposite resin restorations resulted in reduced microleakage. The volumetric polymerization shrinkage was least with the silorane-based composite.

Morphological self-organizing feature map neural network with applications to automatic target recognition

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Shijun; Jing, Zhongliang; Li, Jianxun

2005-01-01

The rotation invariant feature of the target is obtained using the multi-direction feature extraction property of the steerable filter. Combining the morphological operation top-hat transform with the self-organizing feature map neural network, the adaptive topological region is selected. Using the erosion operation, the topological region shrinkage is achieved. The steerable filter based morphological self-organizing feature map neural network is applied to automatic target recognition of binary standard patterns and real-world infrared sequence images. Compared with Hamming network and morphological shared-weight networks respectively, the higher recognition correct rate, robust adaptability, quick training, and better generalization of the proposed method are achieved.

Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caspar Mathias Goeke

2016-10-01

Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Margaritis, Dimitris

1999-01-01

.... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

A Bayesian encourages dropout

OpenAIRE

Maeda, Shin-ichi

2014-01-01

Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Restrained shrinkage experiments on coated particle fuel compacts in the temperature range 600-1200 deg C

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackstone, R.; Veringa, H.J.; Loelgen, R.

1976-05-01

Information on irradiation induced creep in reactor graphite and in fuel compact material is an essential ingredient in the design of any reactor core layout, because the creep plasticity of these materials diminishes the stresses which are built up in the fuel element during reactor operation. The restrained shrinkage method in which the shrinkage of a dumbbell shaped creep specimen is restrained by a graphite material which shows less irradiation shrinkage, offers a good possibility of performing a large series of tensile creep experiments in a limited irradiation volume. The irradiations, evaluations and the results of a series of restrained shrinkage experiments in which six different materials were tested, of which five were dummy coated particle compacts and one pure matrix material are described and discussed. These materials were irradiated in the High Flux Reactor of the Euratom Joint Research Centre in Petten/Netherlands. The irradiations were performed in three successive capsules at irradiation temperatures of 600 deg C, 900 deg C, 1050 deg C and 1200 deg C up to a neutron fluence of maximum 3x10 21 n.cm 2 (DNE). The post-irradiation examinations yielded plastic strains up to 2,3%, and values for the radiation creep coefficient were calculated, ranging from 4 to 8.10 -12 at 600 deg C and 8 to 30.10 -12 at 1200 deg C always given per dyn.cm -2 tensile stresses and per 10 20 n.cm -2 fluence units. Generally it was found that the creep behavior of these materials and the temperature dependence of the creep process could be compared with those for normal reactor graphites

Assessment and prediction of drying shrinkage cracking in bonded mortar overlays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beushausen, Hans, E-mail: hans.beushausen@uct.ac.za; Chilwesa, Masuzyo

2013-11-15

Restrained drying shrinkage cracking was investigated on composite beams consisting of substrate concrete and bonded mortar overlays, and compared to the performance of the same mortars when subjected to the ring test. Stress development and cracking in the composite specimens were analytically modeled and predicted based on the measurement of relevant time-dependent material properties such as drying shrinkage, elastic modulus, tensile relaxation and tensile strength. Overlay cracking in the composite beams could be very well predicted with the analytical model. The ring test provided a useful qualitative comparison of the cracking performance of the mortars. The duration of curing was found to only have a minor influence on crack development. This was ascribed to the fact that prolonged curing has a beneficial effect on tensile strength at the onset of stress development, but is in the same time not beneficial to the values of tensile relaxation and elastic modulus. -- Highlights: •Parameter study on material characteristics influencing overlay cracking. •Analytical model gives good quantitative indication of overlay cracking. •Ring test presents good qualitative indication of overlay cracking. •Curing duration has little effect on overlay cracking.

Assessment and prediction of drying shrinkage cracking in bonded mortar overlays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beushausen, Hans; Chilwesa, Masuzyo

2013-01-01

Restrained drying shrinkage cracking was investigated on composite beams consisting of substrate concrete and bonded mortar overlays, and compared to the performance of the same mortars when subjected to the ring test. Stress development and cracking in the composite specimens were analytically modeled and predicted based on the measurement of relevant time-dependent material properties such as drying shrinkage, elastic modulus, tensile relaxation and tensile strength. Overlay cracking in the composite beams could be very well predicted with the analytical model. The ring test provided a useful qualitative comparison of the cracking performance of the mortars. The duration of curing was found to only have a minor influence on crack development. This was ascribed to the fact that prolonged curing has a beneficial effect on tensile strength at the onset of stress development, but is in the same time not beneficial to the values of tensile relaxation and elastic modulus. -- Highlights: •Parameter study on material characteristics influencing overlay cracking. •Analytical model gives good quantitative indication of overlay cracking. •Ring test presents good qualitative indication of overlay cracking. •Curing duration has little effect on overlay cracking

Predicting the drying shrinkage behavior of high strength portland cement mortar under the combined influence of fine aggregate and steel micro fiber

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Zhengqi

2017-01-01

The workability, 28-day compressive strength and free drying shrinkage of a very high strength (121-142 MPa) steel micro fiber reinforced portland cement mortar were studied under a combined influence of fine aggregate content and fiber content. The test results showed that an increase in the fine aggregate content resulted in decreases in the workability, 28-day compressive strength and drying shrinkage of mortar at a fixed fiber content. An increase in the fiber content resulted in decreases in the workability and drying shrinkage of mortar, but an increase in the 28-day compressive strength of mortar at a fixed fine aggregate content. The modified Gardner model most accurately predicted the drying shrinkage development of the high strength mortars, followed by the Ross model and the ACI 209R-92 model. The Gardner model gave the least accurate prediction for it was developed based on a database of normal strength concrete. [es

Predicting the drying shrinkage behavior of high strength portland cement mortar under the combined influence of fine aggregate and steel micro fiber

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhengqi Li

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The workability, 28-day compressive strength and free drying shrinkage of a very high strength (121-142 MPa steel micro fiber reinforced portland cement mortar were studied under a combined influence of fine aggregate content and fiber content. The test results showed that an increase in the fine aggregate content resulted in decreases in the workability, 28-day compressive strength and drying shrinkage of mortar at a fixed fiber content. An increase in the fiber content resulted in decreases in the workability and drying shrinkage of mortar, but an increase in the 28-day compressive strength of mortar at a fixed fine aggregate content. The modified Gardner model most accurately predicted the drying shrinkage development of the high strength mortars, followed by the Ross model and the ACI 209R-92 model. The Gardner model gave the least accurate prediction for it was developed based on a database of normal strength concrete.

Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

2009-01-01

(domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes......Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

The Process of Shrinkage as a Challenge to Urban Governance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stryjakiewicz Tadeusz

2016-06-01

Full Text Available For many decades most researchers, planners and local authorities have been focusing almost exclusively on urban growth and its socio-economic and spatial consequences. However, in the current debate concerning the future of cities and regions in Europe the process of their shrinkage starts to attract more attention. In the conditions of a declining population, urban governance is an important challenge for local authorities, being usually much more difficult than during the periods of population growth.

Influence of inert fillers on shrinkage cracking of meta-kaolin geo-polymers

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kuenzel, C.; Boccaccini, A.R.

2012-01-01

Geo-polymers contain a network of tetrahedral coordinated aluminate and silicate, and are potential materials to immobilize/encapsulate nuclear wastes. They can exhibit shrinkage cracking when water is removed by drying, and in order to use geo-polymers for waste encapsulation this effect needs to be investigated and controlled. In this study, six different fillers were mixed with meta-kaolin and sodium silicate solution at high pH to form geo-polymers, and the influence of filler addition on mechanical properties has been determined. The fillers used were Fe 2 O 3 , Al 2 O 3 , CaCO 3 , sand, glass and rubber and these do not react during geo-polymerisation reactions. Geo-polymers were prepared containing 30 weight percent of filler. The mechanical properties of the geo-polymers were influenced by the type of filler, with low density fillers increasing mortar viscosity. Geo-polymer samples containing fine filler particles exhibited shrinkage cracking on drying. This was not observed when coarser particles were added and these samples also had significantly improved mechanical properties. (authors)

Autogenous shrinkage in high-performance cement paste: An evaluation of basic mechanisms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lura, Pietro; Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; Breugel, Klaas van

2003-01-01

In this paper, various mechanisms suggested to cause autogenous shrinkage are presented. The mechanisms are evaluated from the point of view of their soundness and applicability to quantitative modeling of autogenous shrinkage. The capillary tension approach is advantageous, because it has a sound mechanical and thermodynamical basis. Furthermore, this mechanism is easily applicable in a numerical model when dealing with a continuously changing microstructure. In order to test the numerical model, autogenous deformation and internal relative humidity (RH) of a Portland cement paste were measured during the first week of hardening. The isothermal heat evolution was also recorded to monitor the progress of hydration and the elastic modulus in compression was measured. RH change, degree of hydration and elastic modulus were used as input data for the calculation of autogenous deformation based on the capillary tension approach. Because a part of the RH drop in the cement paste is due to dissolved salts in the pore solution, a method is suggested to separate this effect from self-desiccation and to calculate the actual stress in the pore fluid associated with menisci formation

Creep and drying shrinkage of high performance concrete for the skyway structures of the new San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge and cement paste

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-01

The objective of this study was to determine the influence of admixtures on long term drying shrinkage and creep of high : strength concrete (HSC). Creep and shrinkage of the mix utilized in segments of the Skyway Structure of the San : Francisco-Oak...

Bayesian Utilitarianism

OpenAIRE

ZHOU, Lin

1996-01-01

In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

Hydro-mechanical coupling in non-saturated medium with phase change. Application to desiccation shrinkage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lassabatere, Thierry

1994-01-01

The target of this research is to set up a unified and coherent working frame based upon the rigorous principles of thermodynamics and making it possible to model a large class of physical phenomena acting in unsaturated porous media, as well as the related interactions with the mechanical state of the structures. This class corresponds to reactive phenomena among which one finds the phase change (desiccation) for which the whole of its subsequent actions (creep but essentially shrinkage) is modelled and which will be treated as a specific application example. The first chapter recalls the bases of the adopted description of the porous medium as well as the global thermodynamical frame which underlays the whole modelling. Chapter II deals with the mainly new formulation and the identification of a non linear elastic constitutive law of the medium involved. Various reflexion elements related to the microscopic behaviours of the components and to experiments have orientated the model towards some more limitative hypotheses making it possible to have a complete and explicit determination of a law for the macroscopic behaviour. Chapter IV and V are examples of application: chapter IV studies the problem of shrinkage and creep in a coupled linear elastic behaviour. Chapter V is limited to the case of shrinkage treated by a numerical application of the whole non-linear elastic model. The results obtained are in good agreement with the corresponding experiments. (author) [fr

Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

2009-01-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly

Influence of vertical holes on creep and shrinkage of railway prestressed concrete sleepers

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Dan; Ngamkhanong, Chayut; Kaewunruen, Sakdirat

2017-09-01

Railway prestressed concrete sleepers (or railroad ties) must successfully perform two critical duties: first, to carry wheel loads from the rails to the ground; and second, to secure rail gauge for dynamic safe movements of trains. The second duty is often fouled by inappropriate design of the time-dependent behaviors due to their creep, shrinkage and elastic shortening responses of the materials. In addition, the concrete sleepers are often modified on construction sites to fit in other systems such as cables, signalling gears, drainage pipes, etc. Accordingly, this study is the world first to investigate creep and shrinkage effects on the railway prestressed concrete sleepers with vertical holes. This paper will highlight constitutive models of concrete materials within the railway sleepers under different environmental conditions over time. It will present a comparative investigation using a variety of methods to evaluate shortening effects in railway prestressed concrete sleepers. The outcome of this study will improve material design, which is very critical to the durability of railway track components.

Fissure formation in coke. 2: Effect of heating rate, shrinkage and coke strength

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

D.R. Jenkins; M.R. Mahoney [CSIRO, North Ryde, NSW (Australia). Mathematical and Information Sciences

2010-07-15

We investigate the effects of the heating rate, coke shrinkage and coke breakage strength upon the fissure pattern developed in a coke oven charge during carbonisation. This is done principally using a mechanistic model of the formation of fissures, which considers them to be an array of equally spaced fissures, whose depth follows a 'period doubling' pattern based upon the time history of the fissures. The model results are compared with pilot scale coke oven experiments. The results show that the effect of heating rate on the fissure pattern is different to the effect of coke shrinkage, while the effect of coke breakage strength on the pattern is less pronounced. The results can be seen in both the shape and size of resulting coke lumps after stabilisation. The approach gives the opportunity to consider means of controlling the carbonisation process in order to tune the size of the coke lumps produced. 7 refs., 18 figs., 4 tabs.

Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

Science.gov (United States)

Caudle, Kyle

2010-01-01

In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

Minimal volume regulation after shrinkage of red blood cells from five species of reptiles

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kristensen, Karina; Berenbrink, Michael; Koldkjær, Pia

2008-01-01

Red blood cells (RBCs) from most vertebrates restore volume upon hypertonic shrinkage and the mechanisms underlying this regulatory volume increase (RVI) have been studied extensively in these cells. Despite the phylogenetically interesting position of reptiles, very little is known about their red...... cell function. The present study demonstrates that oxygenated RBCs in all major groups of reptiles exhibit no or a very reduced RVI upon ~ 25% calculated hyperosmotic shrinkage. Thus, RBCs from the snakes Crotalus durissus and Python regius, the turtle Trachemys scripta and the alligator Alligator...... was not characterized. It seems, therefore, that the RVI response based on NHE activation was lost among the early sauropsids that gave rise to modern reptiles and birds, while it was retained in mammals. An RVI response has then reappeared in birds, but based on activation of the NKCC. Alternatively, the absence...

Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abad-Grau María M

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

Effect of Addition of A Marble Dust on Drying Shrinkage Cracks of Cement Mortar Reinforced with Various Fibers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Basim Thabit Al-Khafaji

2017-05-01

Full Text Available This investigation is conducted to study the effect of addition of marble powder (marble dust and different fibers on drying shrinkage cracks and some properties of fibers reinforcment cement mortar. Steel molds having a trapezoidal section, and the end restrained at square shape with( 2.7 meter at length are used to study restrained drying shrinkage of cement mortar. Specimens of ( compressive .flextural. splitting strength were cast. The admixture (marble dust was used to replacie weight of cement with three levels of (4%, 8% and 16% and the fiber hemp and sisal fiber were added for all mixes with proportion by volum of cement . All specimens were cured for (14 days. Average of three results was taken for any test of compressive, tensil and flextural strength. The experimental results showed that the adding of this admixture(marble dust cause adelay in a formation of cracks predicted from a drying shrinkage ,decreases of its width , and hence increases of (compressive, splitting tensil and flextural strength at levels of (4%, and 8%. Thus there is a the positive effect when fiberes added for all mixes of cement mortar with addition of (marble dust. All The admixtures (marble dust and fibers have the obvious visible effect in the delay of the information of shrinkage cracks and the decrease of its width as Compared to the cement mortar mixes when marble dust added a alone.

Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2009-02-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Ultra high performance concrete made with rice husk ash for reduced autogenous shrinkage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Breugel, K.; Van Tuan, N.

2014-01-01

Ultra High Strength Concrete (UHPC) is generally made with low w/c mixtures and by adding silica fume. Low w/c mixtures, however, exhibit high autogenous shrinkage, while a high amount of silica fume increases the price of these mixtures. For designing ultra high strength mixtures with low

Autogenous shrinkage of Ducorit S5R ASTM C 1698-09 test method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Damkilde, Lars

The report deals with experimental measurement of autogenous shrinkage of Ducorit S5R according to the test method ASTM C 1698-09. This test method measures the bulk strain of a sealed cementitious specimen, at constant temperature and not subjected to external forces, from the time of final...

Maximum a posteriori probability estimates in infinite-dimensional Bayesian inverse problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helin, T; Burger, M

2015-01-01

A demanding challenge in Bayesian inversion is to efficiently characterize the posterior distribution. This task is problematic especially in high-dimensional non-Gaussian problems, where the structure of the posterior can be very chaotic and difficult to analyse. Current inverse problem literature often approaches the problem by considering suitable point estimators for the task. Typically the choice is made between the maximum a posteriori (MAP) or the conditional mean (CM) estimate. The benefits of either choice are not well-understood from the perspective of infinite-dimensional theory. Most importantly, there exists no general scheme regarding how to connect the topological description of a MAP estimate to a variational problem. The recent results by Dashti and others (Dashti et al 2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) resolve this issue for nonlinear inverse problems in Gaussian framework. In this work we improve the current understanding by introducing a novel concept called the weak MAP (wMAP) estimate. We show that any MAP estimate in the sense of Dashti et al (2013 Inverse Problems 29 095017) is a wMAP estimate and, moreover, how the wMAP estimate connects to a variational formulation in general infinite-dimensional non-Gaussian problems. The variational formulation enables to study many properties of the infinite-dimensional MAP estimate that were earlier impossible to study. In a recent work by the authors (Burger and Lucka 2014 Maximum a posteriori estimates in linear inverse problems with logconcave priors are proper bayes estimators preprint) the MAP estimator was studied in the context of the Bayes cost method. Using Bregman distances, proper convex Bayes cost functions were introduced for which the MAP estimator is the Bayes estimator. Here, we generalize these results to the infinite-dimensional setting. Moreover, we discuss the implications of our results for some examples of prior models such as the Besov prior and hierarchical prior. (paper)

Bayesian Model Comparison With the g-Prior

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jesper Kjær; Christensen, Mads Græsbøll; Cemgil, Ali Taylan

2014-01-01

’s asymptotic MAP rule was an improvement, and in this paper we extend the work by Djuric in several ways. Specifically, we consider the elicitation of proper prior distributions, treat the case of real- and complex-valued data simultaneously in a Bayesian framework similar to that considered by Djuric......, and develop new model selection rules for a regression model containing both linear and non-linear parameters. Moreover, we use this framework to give a new interpretation of the popular information criteria and relate their performance to the signal-to-noise ratio of the data. By use of simulations, we also...... demonstrate that our proposed model comparison and selection rules outperform the traditional information criteria both in terms of detecting the true model and in terms of predicting unobserved data. The simulation code is available online....

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

2012-01-01

This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA

Bayesian Networks An Introduction

CERN Document Server

Koski, Timo

2009-01-01

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belkheir Essebbar

2004-02-01

Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

Bayesian theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

2013-01-01

The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

Significance of Shrinkage Induced Clamping Pressure in Fiber-Matrix Bonding in Cementitious Composite Materials

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stang, Henrik

1996-01-01

used in high performance cementitious composite materials.Assuming a Coulomb type of friction on the fiber/matrix interface andusing typical values for the frictional coefficient it is shownthat the shrinkage induced clamping pressure could be one of the mostimportant factors determining the frictional...

Bayesian inference for data assimilation using Least-Squares Finite Element methods

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dwight, Richard P

2010-01-01

It has recently been observed that Least-Squares Finite Element methods (LS-FEMs) can be used to assimilate experimental data into approximations of PDEs in a natural way, as shown by Heyes et al. in the case of incompressible Navier-Stokes flow. The approach was shown to be effective without regularization terms, and can handle substantial noise in the experimental data without filtering. Of great practical importance is that - unlike other data assimilation techniques - it is not significantly more expensive than a single physical simulation. However the method as presented so far in the literature is not set in the context of an inverse problem framework, so that for example the meaning of the final result is unclear. In this paper it is shown that the method can be interpreted as finding a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator in a Bayesian approach to data assimilation, with normally distributed observational noise, and a Bayesian prior based on an appropriate norm of the governing equations. In this setting the method may be seen to have several desirable properties: most importantly discretization and modelling error in the simulation code does not affect the solution in limit of complete experimental information, so these errors do not have to be modelled statistically. Also the Bayesian interpretation better justifies the choice of the method, and some useful generalizations become apparent. The technique is applied to incompressible Navier-Stokes flow in a pipe with added velocity data, where its effectiveness, robustness to noise, and application to inverse problems is demonstrated.

The origin of early age expansions induced in cementitious materials containing shrinkage reducing admixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sant, Gaurav; Lothenbach, Barbara; Juilland, Patrick; Le Saout, Gwenn; Weiss, Jason; Scrivener, Karen

2011-01-01

Studies on the early-age shrinkage behavior of cement pastes, mortars, and concretes containing shrinkage reducing admixtures (SRAs) have indicated these mixtures frequently exhibit an expansion shortly after setting. While the magnitude of the expansion has been noted to be a function of the chemistry of the cement and the admixture dosage; the cause of the expansion is not clearly understood. This investigation uses measurements of autogenous deformation, X-ray diffraction, pore solution analysis, thermogravimetry, and scanning electron microscopy to study the early-age properties and describe the mechanism of the expansion in OPC pastes made with and without SRA. The composition of the pore solution indicates that the presence of the SRA increases the portlandite oversaturation level in solution which can result in higher crystallization stresses which could lead to an expansion. This observation is supported by deformation calculations for the systems examined.

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Influence of fly ash, slag cement and specimen curing on shrinkage of bridge deck concrete.

Science.gov (United States)

2014-12-01

Cracks occur in bridge decks due to restrained shrinkage of concrete materials. Concrete materials shrink as : cementitious materials hydrate and as water that is not chemically bonded to cementitious materials : migrates from the high humid environm...

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

The potential of computer vision, optical backscattering parameters and artificial neural network modelling in monitoring the shrinkage of sweet potato (Ipomoea batatas L.) during drying.

Science.gov (United States)

Onwude, Daniel I; Hashim, Norhashila; Abdan, Khalina; Janius, Rimfiel; Chen, Guangnan

2018-03-01

Drying is a method used to preserve agricultural crops. During the drying of products with high moisture content, structural changes in shape, volume, area, density and porosity occur. These changes could affect the final quality of dried product and also the effective design of drying equipment. Therefore, this study investigated a novel approach in monitoring and predicting the shrinkage of sweet potato during drying. Drying experiments were conducted at temperatures of 50-70 °C and samples thicknesses of 2-6 mm. The volume and surface area obtained from camera vision, and the perimeter and illuminated area from backscattered optical images were analysed and used to evaluate the shrinkage of sweet potato during drying. The relationship between dimensionless moisture content and shrinkage of sweet potato in terms of volume, surface area, perimeter and illuminated area was found to be linearly correlated. The results also demonstrated that the shrinkage of sweet potato based on computer vision and backscattered optical parameters is affected by the product thickness, drying temperature and drying time. A multilayer perceptron (MLP) artificial neural network with input layer containing three cells, two hidden layers (18 neurons), and five cells for output layer, was used to develop a model that can monitor, control and predict the shrinkage parameters and moisture content of sweet potato slices under different drying conditions. The developed ANN model satisfactorily predicted the shrinkage and dimensionless moisture content of sweet potato with correlation coefficient greater than 0.95. Combined computer vision, laser light backscattering imaging and artificial neural network can be used as a non-destructive, rapid and easily adaptable technique for in-line monitoring, predicting and controlling the shrinkage and moisture changes of food and agricultural crops during drying. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry. © 2017 Society of Chemical Industry.

Influence of rare earths on shrinkage porosity in thin walled ductile cast iron

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Karl Martin; Tiedje, Niels Skat

2009-01-01

Ductile cast iron has been cast in test bars with thickness from 2 to 10 mm. The rare earth elements La and Ce have been added to some of the castings to evaluate their influence on microstructure and shrinkage tendency. Both La and Ce increased the graphite nodule count, especially for thickness...

Planck 2015 results. X. Diffuse component separation: Foreground maps

CERN Document Server

Adam, R.; Aghanim, N.; Alves, M.I.R.; Arnaud, M.; Ashdown, M.; Aumont, J.; Baccigalupi, C.; Banday, A.J.; Barreiro, R.B.; Bartlett, J.G.; Bartolo, N.; Battaner, E.; Benabed, K.; Benoît, A.; Benoit-Lévy, A.; Bernard, J.-P.; Bersanelli, M.; Bielewicz, P.; Bock, J.J.; Bonaldi, A.; Bonavera, L.; Bond, J.R.; Borrill, J.; Bouchet, F.R.; Boulanger, F.; Bucher, M.; Burigana, C.; Butler, R.C.; Calabrese, E.; Cardoso, J.-F.; Catalano, A.; Challinor, A.; Chamballu, A.; Chary, R.-R.; Chiang, H.C.; Christensen, P.R.; Clements, D.L.; Colombi, S.; Colombo, L.P.L.; Combet, C.; Couchot, F.; Coulais, A.; Crill, B.P.; Curto, A.; Cuttaia, F.; Danese, L.; Davies, R.D.; Davis, R.J.; de Bernardis, P.; de Rosa, A.; de Zotti, G.; Delabrouille, J.; Désert, F.-X.; Dickinson, C.; Diego, J.M.; Dole, H.; Donzelli, S.; Doré, O.; Douspis, M.; Ducout, A.; Dupac, X.; Efstathiou, G.; Elsner, F.; Enßlin, T.A.; Eriksen, H.K.; Falgarone, E.; Fergusson, J.; Finelli, F.; Forni, O.; Frailis, M.; Fraisse, A.A.; Franceschi, E.; Frejsel, A.; Galeotta, S.; Galli, S.; Ganga, K.; Ghosh, T.; Giard, M.; Giraud-Héraud, Y.; Gjerløw, E.; González-Nuevo, J.; Górski, K.M.; Gratton, S.; Gregorio, A.; Gruppuso, A.; Gudmundsson, J.E.; Hansen, F.K.; Hanson, D.; Harrison, D.L.; Helou, G.; Henrot-Versillé, S.; Hernández-Monteagudo, C.; Herranz, D.; Hildebrandt, S.R.; Hivon, E.; Hobson, M.; Holmes, W.A.; Hornstrup, A.; Hovest, W.; Huffenberger, K.M.; Hurier, G.; Jaffe, A.H.; Jaffe, T.R.; Jones, W.C.; Juvela, M.; Keihänen, E.; Keskitalo, R.; Kisner, T.S.; Kneissl, R.; Knoche, J.; Kunz, M.; Kurki-Suonio, H.; Lagache, G.; Lähteenmäki, A.; Lamarre, J.-M.; Lasenby, A.; Lattanzi, M.; Lawrence, C.R.; Le Jeune, M.; Leahy, J.P.; Leonardi, R.; Lesgourgues, J.; Levrier, F.; Liguori, M.; Lilje, P.B.; Linden-Vørnle, M.; López-Caniego, M.; Lubin, P.M.; Macías-Pérez, J.F.; Maggio, G.; Maino, D.; Mandolesi, N.; Mangilli, A.; Maris, M.; Marshall, D.J.; Martin, P.G.; Martínez-González, E.; Masi, S.; Matarrese, S.; Mazzotta, P.; McGehee, P.; Meinhold, P.R.; Melchiorri, A.; Mendes, L.; Mennella, A.; Migliaccio, M.; Mitra, S.; Miville-Deschênes, M.-A.; Moneti, A.; Montier, L.; Morgante, G.; Mortlock, D.; Moss, A.; Munshi, D.; Murphy, J.A.; Naselsky, P.; Nati, F.; Natoli, P.; Netterfield, C.B.; Nørgaard-Nielsen, H.U.; Noviello, F.; Novikov, D.; Novikov, I.; Orlando, E.; Oxborrow, C.A.; Paci, F.; Pagano, L.; Pajot, F.; Paladini, R.; Paoletti, D.; Partridge, B.; Pasian, F.; Patanchon, G.; Pearson, T.J.; Perdereau, O.; Perotto, L.; Perrotta, F.; Pettorino, V.; Piacentini, F.; Piat, M.; Pierpaoli, E.; Pietrobon, D.; Plaszczynski, S.; Pointecouteau, E.; Polenta, G.; Pratt, G.W.; Prézeau, G.; Prunet, S.; Puget, J.-L.; Rachen, J.P.; Reach, W.T.; Rebolo, R.; Reinecke, M.; Remazeilles, M.; Renault, C.; Renzi, A.; Ristorcelli, I.; Rocha, G.; Rosset, C.; Rossetti, M.; Roudier, G.; Rubiño-Martín, J.A.; Rusholme, B.; Sandri, M.; Santos, D.; Savelainen, M.; Savini, G.; Scott, D.; Seiffert, M.D.; Shellard, E.P.S.; Spencer, L.D.; Stolyarov, V.; Stompor, R.; Strong, A.W.; Sudiwala, R.; Sunyaev, R.; Sutton, D.; Suur-Uski, A.-S.; Sygnet, J.-F.; Tauber, J.A.; Terenzi, L.; Toffolatti, L.; Tomasi, M.; Tristram, M.; Tucci, M.; Tuovinen, J.; Umana, G.; Valenziano, L.; Valiviita, J.; Van Tent, B.; Vielva, P.; Villa, F.; Wade, L.A.; Wandelt, B.D.; Wehus, I.K.; Wilkinson, A.; Yvon, D.; Zacchei, A.

2016-01-01

Planck has mapped the microwave sky in nine frequency bands between 30 and 857 GHz in temperature and seven bands between 30 and 353 GHz in polarization. In this paper we consider the problem of diffuse astrophysical component separation, and process these maps within a Bayesian framework to derive a consistent set of full-sky astrophysical component maps. For the temperature analysis, we combine the Planck observations with the 9-year WMAP sky maps and the Haslam et al. 408 MHz map to derive a joint model of CMB, synchrotron, free-free, spinning dust, CO, line emission in the 94 and 100 GHz channels, and thermal dust emission. Full-sky maps are provided with angular resolutions varying between 7.5 arcmin and 1 deg. Global parameters (monopoles, dipoles, relative calibration, and bandpass errors) are fitted jointly with the sky model, and best-fit values are tabulated. For polarization, the model includes CMB, synchrotron, and thermal dust emission. These models provide excellent fits to the observed data, wi...

A 3D Lattice Modelling Study of Drying Shrinkage Damage in Concrete Repair Systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lukovic, M.; Savija, B.; Schlangen, H.E.J.G.; Ye, G.; van Breugel, K.

2016-01-01

Differential shrinkage between repair material and concrete substrate is considered to be the main cause of premature failure of repair systems. The magnitude of induced stresses depends on many factors, for example the degree of restraint, moisture gradients caused by curing and drying conditions,

Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

CERN Document Server

Riggelsen, C

2008-01-01

This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

Bayesian community detection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

2012-01-01

Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....

Fabrication of Polydimethylsiloxane Microlenses Utilizing Hydrogel Shrinkage and a Single Molding Step

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bader Aldalali

2014-05-01

Full Text Available We report on polydimethlysiloxane (PDMS microlenses and microlens arrays on flat and curved substrates fabricated via a relatively simple process combining liquid-phase photopolymerization and a single molding step. The mold for the formation of the PDMS lenses is fabricated by photopolymerizing a polyacrylamide (PAAm pre-hydrogel. The shrinkage of PAAm after its polymerization forms concave lenses. The lenses are then transferred to PDMS by a single step molding to form PDMS microlens array on a flat substrate. The PAAm concave lenses are also transferred to PDMS and another flexible polymer, Solaris, to realize artificial compound eyes. The resultant microlenses and microlens arrays possess good uniformity and optical properties. The focal length of the lenses is inversely proportional to the shrinkage time. The microlens mold can also be rehydrated to change the focal length of the ultimate PDMS microlenses. The spherical aberration is 2.85 μm and the surface roughness is on the order of 204 nm. The microlenses can resolve 10.10 line pairs per mm (lp/mm and have an f-number range between f/2.9 and f/56.5. For the compound eye, the field of view is 113°.

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.

2016-02-13

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver

2016-01-01

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Drying shrinkage of mortars with limestone filler and blast-furnace slag

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carrasco, M. F.

2003-12-01

Full Text Available During the 1990's the use of cements made with port land clinker and two mineral admixtures, called ternary or blended cements, has grown considerably. Nowadays, cements containing several combinations of fly ash and silica fume, blast-furnace slag and silica fume or blast-furnace slag and limestone filler are commonly used. There are numerous works on the influence of blended cements on the fresh state and mechanical properties of mortar and concrete, but the their deformations due to drying shrinkage are not so well described. Analysis of drying shrinkage is relevant because this property influences the possibility of cracking occurrence and, hence, the deterioration of mechanical and durable properties of concrete structures. This paper evaluates the influence on the drying shrinkage of mortars of variable contents of limestone filler and/or blast-furnace slag in Portland cement. Additionally, flexion strength and non evaporable water content were evaluated. Test results show that the inclusion of these mineral admixtures, Joint or separately, increments drying shrinkage of mortars at early ages. Despite this fact, mortars made with limestone filler cement are less susceptible to cracking than mortars made with cements incorporating blast-furnace slag or both admixtures.

Durante los años 90 el uso de cementos fabricados con clínker Portland y dos adiciones suplementarias (cementos ternarios o compuestos se ha incrementado en forma considerable. En la práctica, es cada vez más común el empleo de estos cementos conteniendo combinaciones de ceniza volante y humo de sílice, escoria y humo de sílice o escoria y filler calcáreo. En la actualidad existen numerosos estudios sobre la influencia de los cementos compuestos en las características en estado fresco y las propiedades mecánicas de morteros y hormigones, pero las deformaciones que estos materiales sufren debido a la retracción por secado no son tan conocidas. El análisis de

Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

2018-01-01

An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

Getting Started with GeneRecon — An Introduction to the Association Mapping Tool GeneRecon

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mailund, T; Schauser, Leif

2006-01-01

GeneRecon is a software package for linkage disequilibrium mapping using coalescent theory. It is based on Bayesian Markov-chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method for fine-scale linkage-disequilibrium gene mapping using high-density marker maps. GeneRecon explicitly models the genealogy of a sample...... of the case chromosomes in the vicinity of a disease locus. Given case and control data in the form of genotype or haplotype information, it estimates a number of parameters, most importantly, the disease position....

Universal Darwinism as a process of Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Oberon Campbell

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes’ Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians. As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an ‘experiment’ in the external world environment, and the results of that 'experiment' or the 'surprise' entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the ‘experiment’. Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of 'surprise' experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.

2003-01-01

We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data

Conjugation of diisocyanate side chains to dimethacrylate reduces polymerization shrinkage and increases the hardness of composite resins

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yih-Dean Jan

2014-04-01

Conclusion: Conjugation of diisocyanate side chains to dimethacrylate represents an effective means of reducing polymerization shrinkage and increasing the surface hardness of dental composite resins.

Shrinkage Estimators for Robust and Efficient Inference in Haplotype-Based Case-Control Studies

KAUST Repository

Chen, Yi-Hau; Chatterjee, Nilanjan; Carroll, Raymond J.

2009-01-01

Case-control association studies often aim to investigate the role of genes and gene-environment interactions in terms of the underlying haplotypes (i.e., the combinations of alleles at multiple genetic loci along chromosomal regions). The goal of this article is to develop robust but efficient approaches to the estimation of disease odds-ratio parameters associated with haplotypes and haplotype-environment interactions. We consider "shrinkage" estimation techniques that can adaptively relax the model assumptions of Hardy-Weinberg-Equilibrium and gene-environment independence required by recently proposed efficient "retrospective" methods. Our proposal involves first development of a novel retrospective approach to the analysis of case-control data, one that is robust to the nature of the gene-environment distribution in the underlying population. Next, it involves shrinkage of the robust retrospective estimator toward a more precise, but model-dependent, retrospective estimator using novel empirical Bayes and penalized regression techniques. Methods for variance estimation are proposed based on asymptotic theories. Simulations and two data examples illustrate both the robustness and efficiency of the proposed methods.

Shrinkage Estimators for Robust and Efficient Inference in Haplotype-Based Case-Control Studies

KAUST Repository

Chen, Yi-Hau

2009-03-01

Case-control association studies often aim to investigate the role of genes and gene-environment interactions in terms of the underlying haplotypes (i.e., the combinations of alleles at multiple genetic loci along chromosomal regions). The goal of this article is to develop robust but efficient approaches to the estimation of disease odds-ratio parameters associated with haplotypes and haplotype-environment interactions. We consider "shrinkage" estimation techniques that can adaptively relax the model assumptions of Hardy-Weinberg-Equilibrium and gene-environment independence required by recently proposed efficient "retrospective" methods. Our proposal involves first development of a novel retrospective approach to the analysis of case-control data, one that is robust to the nature of the gene-environment distribution in the underlying population. Next, it involves shrinkage of the robust retrospective estimator toward a more precise, but model-dependent, retrospective estimator using novel empirical Bayes and penalized regression techniques. Methods for variance estimation are proposed based on asymptotic theories. Simulations and two data examples illustrate both the robustness and efficiency of the proposed methods.

Linear shrinkage test: justification for its reintroduction as a standard South African test method

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Sampson, LR

2009-06-04

Full Text Available Several problems with the linear shrinkage test specified in Method A4 of the THM 1 1979 were addressed as part of this investigation in an effort to improve the alleged poor reproducibility of the test and justify its reintroduction into THM 1. A...

Approximate Bayesian computation for forward modeling in cosmology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akeret, Joël; Refregier, Alexandre; Amara, Adam; Seehars, Sebastian; Hasner, Caspar

2015-01-01

Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In many practical situations, the likelihood function may however be unavailable or intractable due to non-gaussian errors, non-linear measurements processes, or complex data formats such as catalogs and maps. In these cases, the simulation of mock data sets can often be made through forward modeling. We discuss how Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) can be used in these cases to derive an approximation to the posterior constraints using simulated data sets. This technique relies on the sampling of the parameter set, a distance metric to quantify the difference between the observation and the simulations and summary statistics to compress the information in the data. We first review the principles of ABC and discuss its implementation using a Population Monte-Carlo (PMC) algorithm and the Mahalanobis distance metric. We test the performance of the implementation using a Gaussian toy model. We then apply the ABC technique to the practical case of the calibration of image simulations for wide field cosmological surveys. We find that the ABC analysis is able to provide reliable parameter constraints for this problem and is therefore a promising technique for other applications in cosmology and astrophysics. Our implementation of the ABC PMC method is made available via a public code release

Experimental study on the shrinkage properties and cracking potential of high strength concrete containing industrial by-products for nuclear power plant concrete

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

KIm, Baek Joong; Yi, Chong Ku

2017-01-01

In Korea, attempts have been made to develop high strength concrete for the safety and design life improvement of nuclear power plants. In this study, the cracking potentials of nuclear power plant-high strength concretes (NPP-HSCs) containing industrial by-products with W/B 0.34 and W/B 0.28, which are being reviewed for their application in the construction of containment structures, were evaluated through autogenous shrinkage, unrestrained drying shrinkage, and restrained drying shrinkage experiments. The cracking potentials of the NPP-HSCs with W/B 0.34 and W/B 0.28 were in the order of 0.34FA25 > 0.34FA25BFS25 > 0.34BFS50 > 0.34BFS65SF5 and 0.28FA25SF5 >> 0.28BFS65SF5 > 0.28BFS45SF5 > 0.28 FA20BFS25SF5, respectively. The cracking potentials of the seven mix proportions excluding 0.28FA25SF5 were lower than that of the existing nuclear power plant concrete; thus, the durability of a nuclear power plant against shrinkage cracking could be improved by applying the seven mix proportions with low cracking potentials

Experimental study on the shrinkage properties and cracking potential of high strength concrete containing industrial by-products for nuclear power plant concrete

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

KIm, Baek Joong; Yi, Chong Ku [School of Civil, Environmental and Architectural Engineering, Korea University, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2017-02-15

In Korea, attempts have been made to develop high strength concrete for the safety and design life improvement of nuclear power plants. In this study, the cracking potentials of nuclear power plant-high strength concretes (NPP-HSCs) containing industrial by-products with W/B 0.34 and W/B 0.28, which are being reviewed for their application in the construction of containment structures, were evaluated through autogenous shrinkage, unrestrained drying shrinkage, and restrained drying shrinkage experiments. The cracking potentials of the NPP-HSCs with W/B 0.34 and W/B 0.28 were in the order of 0.34FA25 > 0.34FA25BFS25 > 0.34BFS50 > 0.34BFS65SF5 and 0.28FA25SF5 >> 0.28BFS65SF5 > 0.28BFS45SF5 > 0.28 FA20BFS25SF5, respectively. The cracking potentials of the seven mix proportions excluding 0.28FA25SF5 were lower than that of the existing nuclear power plant concrete; thus, the durability of a nuclear power plant against shrinkage cracking could be improved by applying the seven mix proportions with low cracking potentials.

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

Science.gov (United States)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Mo

2011-01-01

In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1986-01-01

This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)

Application of Artificial Neural Network to Predict Colour Change, Shrinkage and Texture of Osmotically Dehydrated Pumpkin

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, S. Y.; Lee, J. S.; Loh, S. P.; Tham, H. J.

2017-06-01

The objectives of this study were to use Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict colour change, shrinkage and texture of osmotically dehydrated pumpkin slices. The effects of process variables such as concentration of osmotic solution, immersion temperature and immersion time on the above mentioned physical properties were studied. The colour of the samples was measured using a colorimeter and the net colour difference changes, ΔE were determined. The texture was measured in terms of hardness by using a Texture Analyzer. As for the shrinkage, displacement of volume method was applied and percentage of shrinkage was obtained in terms of volume changes. A feed-forward backpropagation network with sigmoidal function was developed and best network configuration was chosen based on the highest correlation coefficients between the experimental values versus predicted values. As a comparison, Response Surface Methodology (RSM) statistical analysis was also employed. The performances of both RSM and ANN modelling were evaluated based on absolute average deviation (AAD), correlation of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE). The results showed that ANN has higher prediction capability as compared to RSM. The relative importance of the variables on the physical properties were also determined by using connection weight approach in ANN. It was found that solution concentration showed the highest influence on all three physical properties.

Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liangdong Hu

Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

Correcting the axial shrinkage of skeletal muscle thick sections visualized by confocal microscopy

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Janáček, Jiří; Kreft, M.; Čebašek, V.; Eržen, I.

2012-01-01

Roč. 246, č. 2 (2012), s. 107-112 ISSN 0022-2720 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) MEB090910; GA MŠk(CZ) LC06063 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : capillaries * confocal microscopy * sample deformation * shrinkage * skeletal muscle * 3D Subject RIV: FH - Neurology Impact factor: 1.633, year: 2012

Bayesian analysis of rare events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

Evidence of major genes affecting stress response in rainbow trout using Bayesian methods of complex segregation analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vallejo, R L; Rexroad III, C E; Silverstein, J T

2009-01-01

As a first step toward the genetic mapping of QTL affecting stress response variation in rainbow trout, we performed complex segregation analyses (CSA) fitting mixed inheritance models of plasma cortisol by using Bayesian methods in large full-sib families of rainbow trout. To date, no studies have...... been conducted to determine the mode of inheritance of stress response as measured by plasma cortisol response when using a crowding stress paradigm and CSA in rainbow trout. The main objective of this study was to determine the mode of inheritance of plasma cortisol after a crowding stress....... The results from fitting mixed inheritance models with Bayesian CSA suggest that 1 or more major genes with dominant cortisol-decreasing alleles and small additive genetic effects of a large number of independent genes likely underlie the genetic variation of plasma cortisol in the rainbow trout families...

Image Denoising via Bayesian Estimation of Statistical Parameter Using Generalized Gamma Density Prior in Gaussian Noise Model

Science.gov (United States)

Kittisuwan, Pichid

2015-03-01

The application of image processing in industry has shown remarkable success over the last decade, for example, in security and telecommunication systems. The denoising of natural image corrupted by Gaussian noise is a classical problem in image processing. So, image denoising is an indispensable step during image processing. This paper is concerned with dual-tree complex wavelet-based image denoising using Bayesian techniques. One of the cruxes of the Bayesian image denoising algorithms is to estimate the statistical parameter of the image. Here, we employ maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation to calculate local observed variance with generalized Gamma density prior for local observed variance and Laplacian or Gaussian distribution for noisy wavelet coefficients. Evidently, our selection of prior distribution is motivated by efficient and flexible properties of generalized Gamma density. The experimental results show that the proposed method yields good denoising results.

Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

CERN Document Server

Hobbs, N Thompson

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

Daily cone-beam computed tomography used to determine tumour shrinkage and localisation in lung cancer patients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marquard Knap, Marianne; Nordsmark, Marianne (Aarhus Univ. Hospital, Dept. of Oncology, Aarhus (Denmark)), E-mail: mariknap@rm.dk; Hoffmann, Lone; Vestergaard, Anne (Aarhus Univ. Hospital, Dept. of Medical Physics, Aarhus (Denmark))

2010-10-15

Purpose/Objective. Daily Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) in room imaging is used to determine tumour shrinkage during a full radiotherapy (RT) course. In addition, relative interfractional tumour and lymph node motion is determined for each RT fraction. Material and methods. From November 2009 to March 2010, 20 consecutive lung cancer patients (14 NSCLC, 6 SCLC) were followed with daily CBCT during RT. The gross tumour volume for lung tumour (GTV-t) was visible in all daily CBCT scans and was delineated at the beginning, at the tenth and the 20th fraction, and at the end of treatment. Whenever visible, the gross tumour volume for lymph nodes (GTV-n) was also delineated. The GTV-t and GTV-n volumes were determined. All patients were setup according to an online bony anatomy match. Retrospectively, matching based on the internal target volume (ITV), the GTV-t or the GTV-n was performed. Results. In eight patients, we observed a significant GTV-t shrinkage (15-40%) from the planning CT until the last CBCT. Only five patients presented a significant shrinkage (21-37%) in the GTV-n. Using the daily CBCT imaging, it was found that the mean value of the difference between a setup using the skin tattoo and an online matching using the ITV was 7.3+-2.9 mm (3D vector in the direction of ITV). The mean difference between the ITV and bony anatomy matching was 3.0+-1.3 mm. Finally, the mean distance between the GTV-t and the GTV-N was 2.9+-1.6 mm. Conclusion. One third of all patients with lung cancer undergoing chemo-RT achieved significant tumour shrinkage from planning CT until the end of the radiotherapy. Differences in GTV-t and GTV-n motion was observed and matching using the ITV including both GTV-t and GTV-n is therefore preferable.

Daily cone-beam computed tomography used to determine tumour shrinkage and localisation in lung cancer patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marquard Knap, Marianne; Nordsmark, Marianne; Hoffmann, Lone; Vestergaard, Anne

2010-01-01

Purpose/Objective. Daily Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) in room imaging is used to determine tumour shrinkage during a full radiotherapy (RT) course. In addition, relative interfractional tumour and lymph node motion is determined for each RT fraction. Material and methods. From November 2009 to March 2010, 20 consecutive lung cancer patients (14 NSCLC, 6 SCLC) were followed with daily CBCT during RT. The gross tumour volume for lung tumour (GTV-t) was visible in all daily CBCT scans and was delineated at the beginning, at the tenth and the 20th fraction, and at the end of treatment. Whenever visible, the gross tumour volume for lymph nodes (GTV-n) was also delineated. The GTV-t and GTV-n volumes were determined. All patients were setup according to an online bony anatomy match. Retrospectively, matching based on the internal target volume (ITV), the GTV-t or the GTV-n was performed. Results. In eight patients, we observed a significant GTV-t shrinkage (15-40%) from the planning CT until the last CBCT. Only five patients presented a significant shrinkage (21-37%) in the GTV-n. Using the daily CBCT imaging, it was found that the mean value of the difference between a setup using the skin tattoo and an online matching using the ITV was 7.3±2.9 mm (3D vector in the direction of ITV). The mean difference between the ITV and bony anatomy matching was 3.0±1.3 mm. Finally, the mean distance between the GTV-t and the GTV-N was 2.9±1.6 mm. Conclusion. One third of all patients with lung cancer undergoing chemo-RT achieved significant tumour shrinkage from planning CT until the end of the radiotherapy. Differences in GTV-t and GTV-n motion was observed and matching using the ITV including both GTV-t and GTV-n is therefore preferable.

Minimization of variation in volumetric shrinkage and deflection on injection molding of Bi-aspheric lens using numerical simulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bensingh, R. Joseph [Central Institute of Plastics Engineering and Technology, Chennai (India); Boopathy, S. Rajendra [College of Engineering, Anna University, Chennai (India); Jebaraj, C. [Vellore Institutes of Technology, Chennai (India)

2016-11-15

The profile of a bi-aspheric lens is such a way that the thickness narrows down from center to periphery (convex). Injection molding of these profiles has high shrinkage in localized areas, which results in internal voids or sink marks when the part gets cool down to room temperature. This paper deals with the influence of injection molding process parameters such as mold surface temperature, melt temperature, injection time, V/P Switch over by percentage volume filled, packing pressure, and packing duration on the volumetric shrinkage and deflection. The optimal molding parameters for minimum variation in volumetric shrinkage and deflection of bi-aspheric lens have been determined with the application of computer numerical simulation integrated with optimization. The real experimental work carried out with optimal molding parameters and found to have a shallow and steep surface profile accuracy of 0.14 and 1.57 mm, 21.38-45.66 and 12.28-26.90 μm, 41.56-157.33 and 41.56-157.33 nm towards Radii of curvatures (RoC), surface roughness (Ra) and waviness of the surface profiles (profile error Pt), respectively.

Quantum Bayesian networks with application to games displaying Parrondo's paradox

Science.gov (United States)

Pejic, Michael

Bayesian networks and their accompanying graphical models are widely used for prediction and analysis across many disciplines. We will reformulate these in terms of linear maps. This reformulation will suggest a natural extension, which we will show is equivalent to standard textbook quantum mechanics. Therefore, this extension will be termed quantum. However, the term quantum should not be taken to imply this extension is necessarily only of utility in situations traditionally thought of as in the domain of quantum mechanics. In principle, it may be employed in any modelling situation, say forecasting the weather or the stock market---it is up to experiment to determine if this extension is useful in practice. Even restricting to the domain of quantum mechanics, with this new formulation the advantages of Bayesian networks can be maintained for models incorporating quantum and mixed classical-quantum behavior. The use of these will be illustrated by various basic examples. Parrondo's paradox refers to the situation where two, multi-round games with a fixed winning criteria, both with probability greater than one-half for one player to win, are combined. Using a possibly biased coin to determine the rule to employ for each round, paradoxically, the previously losing player now wins the combined game with probabilitygreater than one-half. Using the extended Bayesian networks, we will formulate and analyze classical observed, classical hidden, and quantum versions of a game that displays this paradox, finding bounds for the discrepancy from naive expectations for the occurrence of the paradox. A quantum paradox inspired by Parrondo's paradox will also be analyzed. We will prove a bound for the discrepancy from naive expectations for this paradox as well. Games involving quantum walks that achieve this bound will be presented.

Parallelized Bayesian inversion for three-dimensional dental X-ray imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Kolehmainen, Ville; Vanne, Antti; Siltanen, Samuli; Järvenpää, Seppo; Kaipio, Jari P; Lassas, Matti; Kalke, Martti

2006-02-01

Diagnostic and operational tasks based on dental radiology often require three-dimensional (3-D) information that is not available in a single X-ray projection image. Comprehensive 3-D information about tissues can be obtained by computerized tomography (CT) imaging. However, in dental imaging a conventional CT scan may not be available or practical because of high radiation dose, low-resolution or the cost of the CT scanner equipment. In this paper, we consider a novel type of 3-D imaging modality for dental radiology. We consider situations in which projection images of the teeth are taken from a few sparsely distributed projection directions using the dentist's regular (digital) X-ray equipment and the 3-D X-ray attenuation function is reconstructed. A complication in these experiments is that the reconstruction of the 3-D structure based on a few projection images becomes an ill-posed inverse problem. Bayesian inversion is a well suited framework for reconstruction from such incomplete data. In Bayesian inversion, the ill-posed reconstruction problem is formulated in a well-posed probabilistic form in which a priori information is used to compensate for the incomplete information of the projection data. In this paper we propose a Bayesian method for 3-D reconstruction in dental radiology. The method is partially based on Kolehmainen et al. 2003. The prior model for dental structures consist of a weighted l1 and total variation (TV)-prior together with the positivity prior. The inverse problem is stated as finding the maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimate. To make the 3-D reconstruction computationally feasible, a parallelized version of an optimization algorithm is implemented for a Beowulf cluster computer. The method is tested with projection data from dental specimens and patient data. Tomosynthetic reconstructions are given as reference for the proposed method.

Smartphone technologies and Bayesian networks to assess shorebird habitat selection

Science.gov (United States)

Zeigler, Sara; Thieler, E. Robert; Gutierrez, Ben; Plant, Nathaniel G.; Hines, Megan K.; Fraser, James D.; Catlin, Daniel H.; Karpanty, Sarah M.

2017-01-01

Understanding patterns of habitat selection across a species’ geographic distribution can be critical for adequately managing populations and planning for habitat loss and related threats. However, studies of habitat selection can be time consuming and expensive over broad spatial scales, and a lack of standardized monitoring targets or methods can impede the generalization of site-based studies. Our objective was to collaborate with natural resource managers to define available nesting habitat for piping plovers (Charadrius melodus) throughout their U.S. Atlantic coast distribution from Maine to North Carolina, with a goal of providing science that could inform habitat management in response to sea-level rise. We characterized a data collection and analysis approach as being effective if it provided low-cost collection of standardized habitat-selection data across the species’ breeding range within 1–2 nesting seasons and accurate nesting location predictions. In the method developed, >30 managers and conservation practitioners from government agencies and private organizations used a smartphone application, “iPlover,” to collect data on landcover characteristics at piping plover nest locations and random points on 83 beaches and barrier islands in 2014 and 2015. We analyzed these data with a Bayesian network that predicted the probability a specific combination of landcover variables would be associated with a nesting site. Although we focused on a shorebird, our approach can be modified for other taxa. Results showed that the Bayesian network performed well in predicting habitat availability and confirmed predicted habitat preferences across the Atlantic coast breeding range of the piping plover. We used the Bayesian network to map areas with a high probability of containing nesting habitat on the Rockaway Peninsula in New York, USA, as an example application. Our approach facilitated the collation of evidence-based information on habitat selection

Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham

2008-01-01

We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

2016-11-01

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

A cell shrinkage artefact in growth plate chondrocytes with common fixative solutions: importance of fixative osmolarity for maintaining morphology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MY Loqman

2010-05-01

Full Text Available The remarkable increase in chondrocyte volume is a major determinant in the longitudinal growth of mammalian bones. To permit a detailed morphological study of hypertrophic chondrocytes using standard histological techniques, the preservation of normal chondrocyte morphology is essential. We noticed that during fixation of growth plates with conventional fixative solutions, there was a marked morphological (shrinkage artifact, and we postulated that this arose from the hyper-osmotic nature of these solutions. To test this, we fixed proximal tibia growth plates of 7-day-old rat bones in either (a paraformaldehyde (PFA; 4%, (b glutaraldehyde (GA; 2% with PFA (2% with ruthenium hexamine trichloride (RHT; 0.7%, (c GA (2% with RHT (0.7%, or (d GA (1.3% with RHT (0.5% and osmolarity adjusted to a ‘physiological’ level of ~280mOsm. Using conventional histological methods, confocal microscopy, and image analysis on fluorescently-labelled fixed and living chondrocytes, we then quantified the extent of cell shrinkage and volume change. Our data showed that the high osmolarity of conventional fixatives caused a shrinkage artefact to chondrocytes. This was particularly evident when whole bones were fixed, but could be markedly reduced if bones were sagittally bisected prior to fixation. The shrinkage artefact could be avoided by adjusting the osmolarity of the fixatives to the osmotic pressure of normal extracellular fluids (~280mOsm. These results emphasize the importance of fixative osmolarity, in order to accurately preserve the normal volume/morphology of cells within tissues.

An Active Lattice Model in a Bayesian Framework

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carstensen, Jens Michael

1996-01-01

A Markov Random Field is used as a structural model of a deformable rectangular lattice. When used as a template prior in a Bayesian framework this model is powerful for making inferences about lattice structures in images. The model assigns maximum probability to the perfect regular lattice...... by penalizing deviations in alignment and lattice node distance. The Markov random field represents prior knowledge about the lattice structure, and through an observation model that incorporates the visual appearance of the nodes, we can simulate realizations from the posterior distribution. A maximum...... a posteriori (MAP) estimate, found by simulated annealing, is used as the reconstructed lattice. The model was developed as a central part of an algorithm for automatic analylsis of genetic experiments, positioned in a lattice structure by a robot. The algorithm has been successfully applied to many images...

Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

2008-01-01

The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

OpenAIRE

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

2006-01-01

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

 Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

2004-01-01

We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

Long term economic relationships from cointegration maps

Science.gov (United States)

Vicente, Renato; Pereira, Carlos de B.; Leite, Vitor B. P.; Caticha, Nestor

2007-07-01

We employ the Bayesian framework to define a cointegration measure aimed to represent long term relationships between time series. For visualization of these relationships we introduce a dissimilarity matrix and a map based on the sorting points into neighborhoods (SPIN) technique, which has been previously used to analyze large data sets from DNA arrays. We exemplify the technique in three data sets: US interest rates (USIR), monthly inflation rates and gross domestic product (GDP) growth rates.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Science.gov (United States)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function

Creep and shrinkage effects on integral abutment bridges

Science.gov (United States)

Munuswamy, Sivakumar

Integral abutment bridges provide bridge engineers an economical design alternative to traditional bridges with expansion joints owing to the benefits, arising from elimination of expensive joints installation and reduced maintenance cost. The superstructure for integral abutment bridges is cast integrally with abutments. Time-dependent effects of creep, shrinkage of concrete, relaxation of prestressing steel, temperature gradient, restraints provided by abutment foundation and backfill and statical indeterminacy of the structure introduce time-dependent variations in the redundant forces. An analytical model and numerical procedure to predict instantaneous linear behavior and non-linear time dependent long-term behavior of continuous composite superstructure are developed in which the redundant forces in the integral abutment bridges are derived considering the time-dependent effects. The redistributions of moments due to time-dependent effects have been considered in the analysis. The analysis includes nonlinearity due to cracking of the concrete, as well as the time-dependent deformations. American Concrete Institute (ACI) and American Association of State Highway and Transportation Officials (AASHTO) models for creep and shrinkage are considered in modeling the time dependent material behavior. The variations in the material property of the cross-section corresponding to the constituent materials are incorporated and age-adjusted effective modulus method with relaxation procedure is followed to include the creep behavior of concrete. The partial restraint provided by the abutment-pile-soil system is modeled using discrete spring stiffness as translational and rotational degrees of freedom. Numerical simulation of the behavior is carried out on continuous composite integral abutment bridges and the deformations and stresses due to time-dependent effects due to typical sustained loads are computed. The results from the analytical model are compared with the

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan Guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Five-year evaluation of a low-shrinkage Silorane resin composite material: a randomized clinical trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmidt, Malene; Dige, Irene; Kirkevang, Lise-Lotte; Vaeth, Michael; Hørsted-Bindslev, Preben

2015-03-01

The aim of the present study was to investigate the clinical performance of a low-shrinkage silorane-based composite material (Filtek™ Silorane, 3 M-Espe) by comparing it with a methacrylate-based composite material (Ceram•X™, Dentsply DeTrey). A number of 72 patients (158 restorations) participated in the study. After 5 years, a total of 107 restorations (52 Filtek™ Silorane, 55 Ceram•X™) in 48 patients were evaluated. Only class II restorations were included. All the restorations were placed by the same dentist, and the restorations were scored by one experienced dentist/evaluator. Materials were applied following the manufacturer's instructions. The primary outcome was marginal adaptation. Secondary outcomes were: marginal discoloration, approximal contact, anatomic form, fracture, secondary caries, and hypersensitivity. After 5 years, no statistically significant differences between the two materials were found in marginal adaptation either occlusally (p = 0.96) or approximally (p = 0.62). No statistically significant differences were found between the two materials in terms of approximal contact, anatomic form, fractures, or discoloration. Secondary caries was found in two teeth (Filtek™ Silorane). One tooth showed hypersensitivity (Ceram•X™). Restorations of both materials were clinically acceptable after 5 years. This study did not find any advantage of the silorane-based composite over the methacrylate-based composite, which indicates that the low-shrinkage of Filtek™ Silorane may not be a determinant factor for clinical success in class II cavities. This paper is the first to evaluate the 5-year clinical performance of a low-shrinkage composite material.

Modeling of Flexible Polyurethane Foam Shrinkage for Bra Cup Moulding Process Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Long Wu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Nowadays, moulding technology has become a remarkable manufacturing process in the intimate apparel industry. Polyurethane (PU foam sheets are used to mould three-dimensional (3D seamless bra cups of various softness and shapes, which eliminate bulky seams and reduce production costs. However, it has been challenging to accurately and effectively control the moulding process and bra cup thickness. In this study, the theoretical mechanism of heat transfer and the thermal conductivity of PU foams are first examined. Experimental studies are carried out to investigate the changes in foam materials at various moulding conditions (viz., temperatures, and lengths of dwell time in terms of surface morphology and thickness by using electron and optical microscopy. Based on the theoretical and experimental investigations of the thermal conductivity of the foam materials, empirical equations of shrinkage ratio and thermal conduction of foam materials were established. A regression model to predict flexible PU foam shrinkage during the bra cup moulding process was formulated by using the Levenberg-Marquardt method of nonlinear least squares algorithm and verified for accuracy. This study therefore provides an effective approach that optimizes control of the bra cup moulding process and assures the ultimate quality and thickness of moulded foam cups.

Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. 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C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.

2016-01-01

We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

2006-01-01

We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

A Bayesian Justification for Random Sampling in Sample Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glen Meeden

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In the usual Bayesian approach to survey sampling the sampling design, plays a minimal role, at best. Although a close relationship between exchangeable prior distributions and simple random sampling has been noted; how to formally integrate simple random sampling into the Bayesian paradigm is not clear. Recently it has been argued that the sampling design can be thought of as part of a Bayesian's prior distribution. We will show here that under this scenario simple random sample can be given a Bayesian justification in survey sampling.

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

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Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

Effect of cyclic loading on microleakage of silorane based composite compared with low shrinkage methacrylate-based composites

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hamid Kermanshah

2016-01-01

Conclusion: Silorane did not provide better marginal seal than the low shrinkage methacrylate-based composites (except Aelite. In addition, cyclic loading did not affect the marginal microleakage of evaluated composite restorations .

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

Bayesian Multi-Energy Computed Tomography reconstruction approaches based on decomposition models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cai, Caifang

2013-01-01

Multi-Energy Computed Tomography (MECT) makes it possible to get multiple fractions of basis materials without segmentation. In medical application, one is the soft-tissue equivalent water fraction and the other is the hard-matter equivalent bone fraction. Practical MECT measurements are usually obtained with polychromatic X-ray beams. Existing reconstruction approaches based on linear forward models without counting the beam poly-chromaticity fail to estimate the correct decomposition fractions and result in Beam-Hardening Artifacts (BHA). The existing BHA correction approaches either need to refer to calibration measurements or suffer from the noise amplification caused by the negative-log pre-processing and the water and bone separation problem. To overcome these problems, statistical DECT reconstruction approaches based on non-linear forward models counting the beam poly-chromaticity show great potential for giving accurate fraction images.This work proposes a full-spectral Bayesian reconstruction approach which allows the reconstruction of high quality fraction images from ordinary polychromatic measurements. This approach is based on a Gaussian noise model with unknown variance assigned directly to the projections without taking negative-log. Referring to Bayesian inferences, the decomposition fractions and observation variance are estimated by using the joint Maximum A Posteriori (MAP) estimation method. Subject to an adaptive prior model assigned to the variance, the joint estimation problem is then simplified into a single estimation problem. It transforms the joint MAP estimation problem into a minimization problem with a non-quadratic cost function. To solve it, the use of a monotone Conjugate Gradient (CG) algorithm with suboptimal descent steps is proposed.The performances of the proposed approach are analyzed with both simulated and experimental data. The results show that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to noise and materials. It is also

Empirically-based modeling and mapping to consider the co-occurrence of ecological receptors and stressors

Science.gov (United States)

Part of the ecological risk assessment process involves examining the potential for environmental stressors and ecological receptors to co-occur across a landscape. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian joint modeling framework for use in evaluating and mapping the co-occurrence...

Image-based modeling of tumor shrinkage in head and neck radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chao Ming; Xie Yaoqin; Moros, Eduardo G.; Le, Quynh-Thu; Xing Lei

2010-01-01

Purpose: Understanding the kinetics of tumor growth/shrinkage represents a critical step in quantitative assessment of therapeutics and realization of adaptive radiation therapy. This article presents a novel framework for image-based modeling of tumor change and demonstrates its performance with synthetic images and clinical cases. Methods: Due to significant tumor tissue content changes, similarity-based models are not suitable for describing the process of tumor volume changes. Under the hypothesis that tissue features in a tumor volume or at the boundary region are partially preserved, the kinetic change was modeled in two steps: (1) Autodetection of homologous tissue features shared by two input images using the scale invariance feature transformation (SIFT) method; and (2) establishment of a voxel-to-voxel correspondence between the images for the remaining spatial points by interpolation. The correctness of the tissue feature correspondence was assured by a bidirectional association procedure, where SIFT features were mapped from template to target images and reversely. A series of digital phantom experiments and five head and neck clinical cases were used to assess the performance of the proposed technique. Results: The proposed technique can faithfully identify the known changes introduced when constructing the digital phantoms. The subsequent feature-guided thin plate spline calculation reproduced the ''ground truth'' with accuracy better than 1.5 mm. For the clinical cases, the new algorithm worked reliably for a volume change as large as 30%. Conclusions: An image-based tumor kinetic algorithm was developed to model the tumor response to radiation therapy. The technique provides a practical framework for future application in adaptive radiation therapy.

Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

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Levy, Roy

2016-01-01

In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…