Bayesian Inference in Hidden Markov Random Fields for Binary Data Defined on Large Lattices
Friel, N.; Pettitt, A.N.; Reeves, R.; Wit, E.
2009-01-01
Hidden Markov random fields represent a complex hierarchical model, where the hidden latent process is an undirected graphical structure. Performing inference for such models is difficult primarily because the likelihood of the hidden states is often unavailable. The main contribution of this articl
Bayesian Parameter Estimation for Latent Markov Random Fields and Social Networks
Everitt, Richard G
2012-01-01
Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the calculation of an intractable normalising constant. This problem has received much attention, but very little of this has focussed on the important practical case where the data consists of noisy or incomplete observations of the underlying hidden structure. This paper specifically addresses this problem, comparing two alternative methodologies. In the first of these approaches particle Markov chain Monte Carlo (Andrieu et al., 2010) is used to efficiently explore the parameter space, combined with the exchange algorithm (Murray et al., 2006) for avoiding the calculation of the intractable normalising constant (a proof showing that this combination targets the correct distribution in found in a supplementary appendix online). This approach is compared with approximate Bayesian comput...
Fusion of Hidden Markov Random Field models and its Bayesian estimation.
Destrempes, François; Angers, Jean-François; Mignotte, Max
2006-10-01
In this paper, we present a Hidden Markov Random Field (HMRF) data-fusion model. The proposed model is applied to the segmentation of natural images based on the fusion of colors and textons into Julesz ensembles. The corresponding Exploration/ Selection/Estimation (ESE) procedure for the estimation of the parameters is presented. This method achieves the estimation of the parameters of the Gaussian kernels, the mixture proportions, the region labels, the number of regions, and the Markov hyper-parameter. Meanwhile, we present a new proof of the asymptotic convergence of the ESE procedure, based on original finite time bounds for the rate of convergence. PMID:17022259
Bayesian Posterior Distributions Without Markov Chains
Cole, Stephen R.; Chu, Haitao; Greenland, Sander; Hamra, Ghassan; Richardson, David B.
2012-01-01
Bayesian posterior parameter distributions are often simulated using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. However, MCMC methods are not always necessary and do not help the uninitiated understand Bayesian inference. As a bridge to understanding Bayesian inference, the authors illustrate a transparent rejection sampling method. In example 1, they illustrate rejection sampling using 36 cases and 198 controls from a case-control study (1976–1983) assessing the relation between residential ex...
Markov Random Field Surface Reconstruction
Paulsen, Rasmus Reinhold; Bærentzen, Jakob Andreas; Larsen, Rasmus
2010-01-01
A method for implicit surface reconstruction is proposed. The novelty in this paper is the adaption of Markov Random Field regularization of a distance field. The Markov Random Field formulation allows us to integrate both knowledge about the type of surface we wish to reconstruct (the prior) and...
Bayesian analysis of Markov point processes
Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Møller, Jesper
2006-01-01
Recently Møller, Pettitt, Berthelsen and Reeves introduced a new MCMC methodology for drawing samples from a posterior distribution when the likelihood function is only specified up to a normalising constant. We illustrate the method in the setting of Bayesian inference for Markov point processes...
Bayesian variable order Markov models: Towards Bayesian predictive state representations
C. Dimitrakakis
2009-01-01
We present a Bayesian variable order Markov model that shares many similarities with predictive state representations. The resulting models are compact and much easier to specify and learn than classical predictive state representations. Moreover, we show that they significantly outperform a more st
Kulkarni, Ramaprasad; Tuller, Markus; Fink, Wolfgang; Wildschild, Dorthe (Oregon State U.); (Ariz)
2012-07-27
Advancements in noninvasive imaging methods such as X-ray computed tomography (CT) have led to a recent surge of applications in porous media research with objectives ranging from theoretical aspects of pore-scale fluid and interfacial dynamics to practical applications such as enhanced oil recovery and advanced contaminant remediation. While substantial efforts and resources have been devoted to advance CT technology, microscale analysis, and fluid dynamics simulations, the development of efficient and stable three-dimensional multiphase image segmentation methods applicable to large data sets is lacking. To eliminate the need for wet-dry or dual-energy scans, image alignment, and subtraction analysis, commonly applied in X-ray micro-CT, a segmentation method based on a Bayesian Markov random field (MRF) framework amenable to true three-dimensional multiphase processing was developed and evaluated. Furthermore, several heuristic and deterministic combinatorial optimization schemes required to solve the labeling problem of the MRF image model were implemented and tested for computational efficiency and their impact on segmentation results. Test results for three grayscale data sets consisting of dry glass beads, partially saturated glass beads, and partially saturated crushed tuff obtained with synchrotron X-ray micro-CT demonstrate great potential of the MRF image model for three-dimensional multiphase segmentation. While our results are promising and the developed algorithm is stable and computationally more efficient than other commonly applied porous media segmentation models, further potential improvements exist for fully automated operation.
Limit theorems for Markov random fields
Markov Random Fields (MRF's) have been extensively applied in Statistical Mechanics as well as in Bayesian Image Analysis. MRF's are a special class of dependent random variables located at the vertices of a graph whose joint distribution includes a parameter called the temperature. When the number of vertices of the graph tends to infinity, the normalized distribution of statistics based on these random variables converge in distribution. It can happen that for certain values of the temperature, that the rate of growth of these normalizing constants change drastically. This feature is generally used to explain the phenomenon of phase transition as understood by physicist. In this dissertation the author will show that this drastic change in normalizing constants occurs even in the relatively smooth case when all the random variables are Gaussian. Hence any image analytic MRF ought to be checked for such discontinuous behavior before any analysis is performed. Mixed limit theorems in Bayesian Image Analysis seek to replace intensive simulations of MRF's with limit theorems that approximate the distribution of the MRF's as the number of sites increases. The problem of deriving mixed limit theorems for MRF's on a one dimensional lattice graph with an acceptor function that has a second moment has been studied by Chow. A mixed limit theorem for the integer lattice graph is derived when the acceptor function does not have a second moment as for instance when the acceptor function is a symmetric stable density of index 0 < α < 2
Markov Model of Wind Power Time Series UsingBayesian Inference of Transition Matrix
Chen, Peiyuan; Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte; Chen, Zhe
2009-01-01
This paper proposes to use Bayesian inference of transition matrix when developing a discrete Markov model of a wind speed/power time series and 95% credible interval for the model verification. The Dirichlet distribution is used as a conjugate prior for the transition matrix. Three discrete Markov models are compared, i.e. the basic Markov model, the Bayesian Markov model and the birth-and-death Markov model. The proposed Bayesian Markov model shows the best accuracy in modeling the autocorr...
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks
Goodrich, Michael S.
2011-01-01
Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.
Bayesian analysis of variable-order, reversible Markov chains
Bacallado, Sergio
2011-01-01
We define a conjugate prior for the reversible Markov chain of order $r$. The prior arises from a partially exchangeable reinforced random walk, in the same way that the Beta distribution arises from the exchangeable Poly\\'{a} urn. An extension to variable-order Markov chains is also derived. We show the utility of this prior in testing the order and estimating the parameters of a reversible Markov model.
Bayesian internal dosimetry calculations using Markov Chain Monte Carlo
A new numerical method for solving the inverse problem of internal dosimetry is described. The new method uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo and the Metropolis algorithm. Multiple intake amounts, biokinetic types, and times of intake are determined from bioassay data by integrating over the Bayesian posterior distribution. The method appears definitive, but its application requires a large amount of computing time. (author)
A Bayesian Markov geostatistical model for estimation of hydrogeological properties
A geostatistical methodology based on Markov-chain analysis and Bayesian statistics was developed for probability estimations of hydrogeological and geological properties in the siting process of a nuclear waste repository. The probability estimates have practical use in decision-making on issues such as siting, investigation programs, and construction design. The methodology is nonparametric which makes it possible to handle information that does not exhibit standard statistical distributions, as is often the case for classified information. Data do not need to meet the requirements on additivity and normality as with the geostatistical methods based on regionalized variable theory, e.g., kriging. The methodology also has a formal way for incorporating professional judgments through the use of Bayesian statistics, which allows for updating of prior estimates to posterior probabilities each time new information becomes available. A Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model (BayMar) software was developed for implementation of the methodology in two and three dimensions. This paper gives (1) a theoretical description of the Bayesian Markov Geostatistical Model; (2) a short description of the BayMar software; and (3) an example of application of the model for estimating the suitability for repository establishment with respect to the three parameters of lithology, hydraulic conductivity, and rock quality designation index (RQD) at 400--500 meters below ground surface in an area around the Aespoe Hard Rock Laboratory in southeastern Sweden
State-feedback stabilization of Markov jump linear systems with randomly observed Markov states
Ogura, Masaki; Cetinkaya, Ahmet
2014-01-01
In this paper we study the state-feedback stabilization of a discrete-time Markov jump linear system when the observation of the Markov chain of the system, called the Markov state, is time-randomized by another Markov chain. Embedding the Markov state into an extended Markov chain, we transform the given system with time-randomized observations to another one having the enlarged Markov-state space but with so-called cluster observations of Markov states. Based on this transformation we propo...
Illumination Invariants Based on Markov Random Fields
Vácha, Pavel; Haindl, Michal
Vukovar, Croatia : In-Teh, 2010 - (Herout, A.), s. 253-272 ISBN 978-953-7619-90-9 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572; GA ČR GA102/08/0593 Grant ostatní: GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : illumination invariants * textural features * Markov random fields Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/RO/vacha-illumination invariants based on markov random fields.pdf
One-Dimensional Markov Random Fields, Markov Chains and Topological Markov Fields
Chandgotia, N; G. Han; Marcus, B; Meyerovitch, T; Pavlov, R
2014-01-01
In this paper we show that any one-dimensional stationary, finite-valued Markov Random Field (MRF) is a Markov chain, without any mixing condition or condition on the support. Our proof makes use of two properties of the support $X$ of a finite-valued stationary MRF: 1) $X$ is non-wandering (this is a property of the support of any finite-valued stationary process) and 2) $X$ is a topological Markov field (TMF). The latter is a new property that sits in between the classes of shifts of finite...
Markov Random Fields on Triangle Meshes
Andersen, Vedrana; Aanæs, Henrik; Bærentzen, Jakob Andreas;
2010-01-01
In this paper we propose a novel anisotropic smoothing scheme based on Markov Random Fields (MRF). Our scheme is formulated as two coupled processes. A vertex process is used to smooth the mesh by displacing the vertices according to a MRF smoothness prior, while an independent edge process labels...
Super-Resolution Using Hidden Markov Model and Bayesian Detection Estimation Framework
Humblot, Fabrice; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2006-12-01
This paper presents a new method for super-resolution (SR) reconstruction of a high-resolution (HR) image from several low-resolution (LR) images. The HR image is assumed to be composed of homogeneous regions. Thus, the a priori distribution of the pixels is modeled by a finite mixture model (FMM) and a Potts Markov model (PMM) for the labels. The whole a priori model is then a hierarchical Markov model. The LR images are assumed to be obtained from the HR image by lowpass filtering, arbitrarily translation, decimation, and finally corruption by a random noise. The problem is then put in a Bayesian detection and estimation framework, and appropriate algorithms are developed based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Gibbs sampling. At the end, we have not only an estimate of the HR image but also an estimate of the classification labels which leads to a segmentation result.
Super-Resolution Using Hidden Markov Model and Bayesian Detection Estimation Framework
Humblot Fabrice
2006-01-01
Full Text Available This paper presents a new method for super-resolution (SR reconstruction of a high-resolution (HR image from several low-resolution (LR images. The HR image is assumed to be composed of homogeneous regions. Thus, the a priori distribution of the pixels is modeled by a finite mixture model (FMM and a Potts Markov model (PMM for the labels. The whole a priori model is then a hierarchical Markov model. The LR images are assumed to be obtained from the HR image by lowpass filtering, arbitrarily translation, decimation, and finally corruption by a random noise. The problem is then put in a Bayesian detection and estimation framework, and appropriate algorithms are developed based on Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC Gibbs sampling. At the end, we have not only an estimate of the HR image but also an estimate of the classification labels which leads to a segmentation result.
A Hidden Markov model for Bayesian data fusion of multivariate signals
Féron, O; Feron, Olivier; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2004-01-01
In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for data fusion of multivariate signals which arises in imaging systems. More specifically, we consider the case where we have observed two images of the same object through two different imaging processes. The objective of this work is then to propose a coherent approach to combine these data sets to obtain a segmented image which can be considered as the fusion result of these two images. The proposed approach is based on a Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) of the images with common segmentation, or equivalently, with common hidden classification label variables which is modeled by the Potts Markov Random Field. We propose then an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to implement the method and show some simulation results and applications.
The ensemble of random Markov matrices
The ensemble of random Markov matrices is introduced as a set of Markov or stochastic matrices with the maximal Shannon entropy. The statistical properties of the stationary distribution π, the average entropy growth rate h and the second-largest eigenvalue ν across the ensemble are studied. It is shown and heuristically proven that the entropy growth rate and second-largest eigenvalue of Markov matrices scale on average with the dimension of the matrices d as h∼log(O(d)) and |ν|∼d−1/2, respectively, yielding the asymptotic relation hτc∼1/2 between the entropy h and the correlation decay time τ = −1/log|ν|. Additionally, the correlation between h and τc is analysed; it decreases with increasing dimension d
Bayesian Smoothing Algorithms in Partially Observed Markov Chains
Ait-el-Fquih, Boujemaa; Desbouvries, François
2006-11-01
Let x = {xn}n∈N be a hidden process, y = {yn}n∈N an observed process and r = {rn}n∈N some auxiliary process. We assume that t = {tn}n∈N with tn = (xn, rn, yn-1) is a (Triplet) Markov Chain (TMC). TMC are more general than Hidden Markov Chains (HMC) and yet enable the development of efficient restoration and parameter estimation algorithms. This paper is devoted to Bayesian smoothing algorithms for TMC. We first propose twelve algorithms for general TMC. In the Gaussian case, these smoothers reduce to a set of algorithms which include, among other solutions, extensions to TMC of classical Kalman-like smoothing algorithms (originally designed for HMC) such as the RTS algorithms, the Two-Filter algorithms or the Bryson and Frazier algorithm.
Collaborative filtering via sparse Markov random fields
Tran, Truyen; Phung, Dinh; Venkatesh, Svetha
2016-01-01
Recommender systems play a central role in providing individualized access to information and services. This paper focuses on collaborative filtering, an approach that exploits the shared structure among mind-liked users and similar items. In particular, we focus on a formal probabilistic framework known as Markov random fields (MRF). We address the open problem of structure learning and introduce a sparsity-inducing algorithm to automatically estimate the interaction structures between users...
Gaussian Markov random fields theory and applications
Rue, Havard
2005-01-01
Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) models are most widely used in spatial statistics - a very active area of research in which few up-to-date reference works are available. This is the first book on the subject that provides a unified framework of GMRFs with particular emphasis on the computational aspects. This book includes extensive case-studies and, online, a c-library for fast and exact simulation. With chapters contributed by leading researchers in the field, this volume is essential reading for statisticians working in spatial theory and its applications, as well as quantitative researchers in a wide range of science fields where spatial data analysis is important.
ON MARKOV CHAINS IN SPACE-TIME RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS
Hu Dihe; Hu Xiaoyu
2009-01-01
In Section 1, the authors establish the models of two kinds of Markov chains in space-time random environments (MCSTRE and MCSTRE(+)) with Abstract state space. In Section 2, the authors construct a MCSTRE and a MCSTRE(+) by an initial distribution Ф and a random Markov kernel (RMK) p(γ). In Section 3, the authors establish several equivalence theorems on MCSTRE and MCSTRE(+). Finally, the authors give two very important examples of MCMSTRE, the random walk in spce-time random environment and the Markov branching chain in space-time random environment.
Markov Model of Wind Power Time Series UsingBayesian Inference of Transition Matrix
Chen, Peiyuan; Berthelsen, Kasper Klitgaard; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte;
2009-01-01
This paper proposes to use Bayesian inference of transition matrix when developing a discrete Markov model of a wind speed/power time series and 95% credible interval for the model verification. The Dirichlet distribution is used as a conjugate prior for the transition matrix. Three discrete Markov...
The Laplace Functional and Moments for Markov Branching Chains in Random Environments
HU Di-he; ZHANG Shu-lin
2005-01-01
The concepts of random Markov matrix, Markov branching chain in random environment (MBCRE) and Laplace functional of Markov branching chain in random environment (LFMBCRE) are introduced. The properties of LFMBCRE and the explicit formulas of moments of MBCRE are given.
Bayesian inference for Markov jump processes with informative observations.
Golightly, Andrew; Wilkinson, Darren J
2015-04-01
In this paper we consider the problem of parameter inference for Markov jump process (MJP) representations of stochastic kinetic models. Since transition probabilities are intractable for most processes of interest yet forward simulation is straightforward, Bayesian inference typically proceeds through computationally intensive methods such as (particle) MCMC. Such methods ostensibly require the ability to simulate trajectories from the conditioned jump process. When observations are highly informative, use of the forward simulator is likely to be inefficient and may even preclude an exact (simulation based) analysis. We therefore propose three methods for improving the efficiency of simulating conditioned jump processes. A conditioned hazard is derived based on an approximation to the jump process, and used to generate end-point conditioned trajectories for use inside an importance sampling algorithm. We also adapt a recently proposed sequential Monte Carlo scheme to our problem. Essentially, trajectories are reweighted at a set of intermediate time points, with more weight assigned to trajectories that are consistent with the next observation. We consider two implementations of this approach, based on two continuous approximations of the MJP. We compare these constructs for a simple tractable jump process before using them to perform inference for a Lotka-Volterra system. The best performing construct is used to infer the parameters governing a simple model of motility regulation in Bacillus subtilis. PMID:25720091
Ensemble bayesian model averaging using markov chain Monte Carlo sampling
Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Diks, Cees G H [NON LANL; Clark, Martyn P [NON LANL
2008-01-01
Bayesian model averaging (BMA) has recently been proposed as a statistical method to calibrate forecast ensembles from numerical weather models. Successful implementation of BMA however, requires accurate estimates of the weights and variances of the individual competing models in the ensemble. In their seminal paper (Raftery etal. Mon Weather Rev 133: 1155-1174, 2(05)) has recommended the Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm for BMA model training, even though global convergence of this algorithm cannot be guaranteed. In this paper, we compare the performance of the EM algorithm and the recently developed Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating the BMA weights and variances. Simulation experiments using 48-hour ensemble data of surface temperature and multi-model stream-flow forecasts show that both methods produce similar results, and that their performance is unaffected by the length of the training data set. However, MCMC simulation with DREAM is capable of efficiently handling a wide variety of BMA predictive distributions, and provides useful information about the uncertainty associated with the estimated BMA weights and variances.
Fast MCMC sampling for Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks
Rao, Vinayak
2012-01-01
Markov jump processes and continuous time Bayesian networks are important classes of continuous time dynamical systems. In this paper, we tackle the problem of inferring unobserved paths in these models by introducing a fast auxiliary variable Gibbs sampler. Our approach is based on the idea of uniformization, and sets up a Markov chain over paths by sampling a finite set of virtual jump times and then running a standard hidden Markov model forward filtering-backward sampling algorithm over states at the set of extant and virtual jump times. We demonstrate significant computational benefits over a state-of-the-art Gibbs sampler on a number of continuous time Bayesian networks.
Approximate recursive calculations of discrete Markov random fields
Arnesen, Petter
2010-01-01
In this thesis we present an approximate recursive algorithm for calculations of discrete Markov random fields defined on graphs. We write the probability distribution of a Markov random field as a function of interaction parameters, a representation well suited for approximations. The algorithm we establish is a forward-backward algorithm, where the forward part recursively decomposes the probability distribution into a product of conditional distributions. Next we establish two different ba...
LIU; Jianfeng; ZHANG; Yuan; ZHANG; Qin; WANG; Lixian; ZHANG; Jigang
2006-01-01
It is a challenging issue to map Quantitative Trait Loci (QTL) underlying complex discrete traits, which usually show discontinuous distribution and less information, using conventional statistical methods. Bayesian-Markov chain Monte Carlo (Bayesian-MCMC) approach is the key procedure in mapping QTL for complex binary traits, which provides a complete posterior distribution for QTL parameters using all prior information. As a consequence, Bayesian estimates of all interested variables can be obtained straightforwardly basing on their posterior samples simulated by the MCMC algorithm. In our study, utilities of Bayesian-MCMC are demonstrated using simulated several animal outbred full-sib families with different family structures for a complex binary trait underlied by both a QTL and polygene. Under the Identity-by-Descent-Based variance component random model, three samplers basing on MCMC, including Gibbs sampling, Metropolis algorithm and reversible jump MCMC, were implemented to generate the joint posterior distribution of all unknowns so that the QTL parameters were obtained by Bayesian statistical inferring. The results showed that Bayesian-MCMC approach could work well and robust under different family structures and QTL effects. As family size increases and the number of family decreases, the accuracy of the parameter estimates will be improved. When the true QTL has a small effect, using outbred population experiment design with large family size is the optimal mapping strategy.
Bayesian inference of BWR model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo
In this paper, the Markov chain Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian inference is applied for estimating the parameters of a reduced-order model of the dynamics of a boiling water reactor system. A Bayesian updating strategy is devised to progressively refine the estimates, as newly measured data become available. Finally, the technique is used for detecting parameter changes during the system lifetime, e.g. due to component degradation
Infinitely dimensional control Markov branching chains in random environments
HU; Dihe
2006-01-01
First of all we introduce the concepts of infinitely dimensional control Markov branching chains in random environments (β-MBCRE) and prove the existence of such chains, then we introduce the concepts of conditional generating functionals and random Markov transition functions of such chains and investigate their branching property. Base on these concepts we calculate the moments of the β-MBCRE and obtain the main results of this paper such as extinction probabilities, polarization and proliferation rate. Finally we discuss the classification ofβ-MBCRE according to the different standards.
Random billiards with wall temperature and associated Markov chains
Cook, Scott; Feres, Renato
2012-01-01
By a random billiard we mean a billiard system in which the standard specular reflection rule is replaced with a Markov transition probabilities operator P that, at each collision of the billiard particle with the boundary of the billiard domain, gives the probability distribution of the post-collision velocity for a given pre-collision velocity. A random billiard with microstructure (RBM) is a random billiard for which P is derived from a choice of geometric/mechanical structure on the bound...
On the recurrence set of planar Markov Random Walks
Hervé, Loïc
2012-01-01
In this paper, we investigate the properties of recurrent planar Markov random walks. More precisely, we study the set of recurrent points with the use of local limit theorems. The Nagaev-Guivarc'h spectral method provides several examples for which these local limit theorems are satisfied as soon as the (standard or non-standard) central limit theorem holds.
Efficient Incorporation of Markov Random Fields in Change Detection
Aanæs, Henrik; Nielsen, Allan Aasbjerg; Carstensen, Jens Michael;
2009-01-01
efficient optimization methods or numerical solvers. We here address the issue of efficient incorporation of local homogeneity constraints into change detection algorithms. We do this by exploiting recent advances in graph based algorithms for Markov Random Fields. This is combined with an IR-MAD change...
Markov Random Fields on Triangle Meshes
Andersen, Vedrana; Aanæs, Henrik; Bærentzen, Jakob Andreas;
2010-01-01
In this paper we propose a novel anisotropic smoothing scheme based on Markov Random Fields (MRF). Our scheme is formulated as two coupled processes. A vertex process is used to smooth the mesh by displacing the vertices according to a MRF smoothness prior, while an independent edge process label...
Bayesian estimation for a parametric Markov Renewal model applied to seismic data
Epifani, I.; Ladelli, L.; Pievatolo, A.
2014-01-01
This paper presents a complete methodology for Bayesian inference on a semi-Markov process, from the elicitation of the prior distribution, to the computation of posterior summaries, including a guidance for its implementation. The inter-occurrence times (conditional on the transition between two given states) are assumed to be Weibull-distributed. We examine the elicitation of the joint prior density of the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distributions, deriving a specific class of...
The construction of Markov processes in random environments and the equivalence theorems
HU Dihe
2004-01-01
In sec.1, we introduce several basic concepts such as random transition function, p-m process and Markov process in random environment and give some examples to construct a random transition function from a non-homogeneous density function. In sec.2, we construct the Markov process in random enviromment and skew product Markov process by p - m process and investigate the properties of Markov process in random environment and the original process and environment process and skew product process. In sec. 3, we give several equivalence theorems on Markov process in random environment.
Improving randomness characterization through Bayesian model selection
R., Rafael Díaz-H; Martínez, Alí M Angulo; U'Ren, Alfred B; Hirsch, Jorge G; Marsili, Matteo; Castillo, Isaac Pérez
2016-01-01
Nowadays random number generation plays an essential role in technology with important applications in areas ranging from cryptography, which lies at the core of current communication protocols, to Monte Carlo methods, and other probabilistic algorithms. In this context, a crucial scientific endeavour is to develop effective methods that allow the characterization of random number generators. However, commonly employed methods either lack formality (e.g. the NIST test suite), or are inapplicable in principle (e.g. the characterization derived from the Algorithmic Theory of Information (ATI)). In this letter we present a novel method based on Bayesian model selection, which is both rigorous and effective, for characterizing randomness in a bit sequence. We derive analytic expressions for a model's likelihood which is then used to compute its posterior probability distribution. Our method proves to be more rigorous than NIST's suite and the Borel-Normality criterion and its implementation is straightforward. We...
Braak, ter C.J.F.
2004-01-01
Differential Evolution (DE) is a simple genetic algorithm for numerical optimization in real parameter spaces. In a statistical context one would not just want the optimum but also its uncertainty. The uncertainty distribution can be obtained by a Bayesian analysis (after specifying prior and likeli
Inferring Team Strengths Using a Discrete Markov Random Field
Zech, John; Wood, Frank
2013-01-01
We propose an original model for inferring team strengths using a Markov Random Field, which can be used to generate historical estimates of the offensive and defensive strengths of a team over time. This model was designed to be applied to sports such as soccer or hockey, in which contest outcomes take value in a limited discrete space. We perform inference using a combination of Expectation Maximization and Loopy Belief Propagation. The challenges of working with a non-convex optimization p...
Linear and Parallel Learning of Markov Random Fields
Mizrahi, Yariv Dror; Denil, Misha; De Freitas, Nando
2013-01-01
We introduce a new embarrassingly parallel parameter learning algorithm for Markov random fields with untied parameters which is efficient for a large class of practical models. Our algorithm parallelizes naturally over cliques and, for graphs of bounded degree, its complexity is linear in the number of cliques. Unlike its competitors, our algorithm is fully parallel and for log-linear models it is also data efficient, requiring only the local sufficient statistics of the data to estimate par...
CHARACTERIZATION OF MARKOV-BERNOULLI GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION RELATED TO RANDOM SUMS
Mohamed Gharib; Ramadan, Mahmoud M.; Khaled A.H. Al-Ajmi
2014-01-01
The Markov-Bernoulli geometric distribution is obtained when a generalization, as a Markov process, of the independent Bernoulli sequence of random variables is introduced by considering the success probability changes with respect to the Markov chain. The resulting model is called the Markov- Bernoulli model and it has a wide variety of application fields. In this study, some characterizations are given concerning the Markov-Bernoulli geometric distribution as the distribution of the summati...
Multiple testing for neuroimaging via hidden Markov random field.
Shu, Hai; Nan, Bin; Koeppe, Robert
2015-09-01
Traditional voxel-level multiple testing procedures in neuroimaging, mostly p-value based, often ignore the spatial correlations among neighboring voxels and thus suffer from substantial loss of power. We extend the local-significance-index based procedure originally developed for the hidden Markov chain models, which aims to minimize the false nondiscovery rate subject to a constraint on the false discovery rate, to three-dimensional neuroimaging data using a hidden Markov random field model. A generalized expectation-maximization algorithm for maximizing the penalized likelihood is proposed for estimating the model parameters. Extensive simulations show that the proposed approach is more powerful than conventional false discovery rate procedures. We apply the method to the comparison between mild cognitive impairment, a disease status with increased risk of developing Alzheimer's or another dementia, and normal controls in the FDG-PET imaging study of the Alzheimer's Disease Neuroimaging Initiative. PMID:26012881
Dynamics of market indices, Markov chains, and random walking problem
Krivoruchenko, M I
2001-01-01
Dynamics of the major USA market indices DJIA, S&P, Nasdaq, and NYSE is analyzed from the point of view of the random walking problem with two-step correlations of the market moves. The parameters characterizing the stochastic dynamics are determined empirically from the historical quotes for the daily, weekly, and monthly series. The results show existence of statistically significant correlations between the subsequent market moves. The weekly and monthly parameters are calculated in terms of the daily parameters, assuming that the Markov chains with two-step correlations give a complete description of the market stochastic dynamics. We show that the macro- and micro-parameters obey the renorm group equation. The comparison of the parameters determined from the renorm group equation with the historical values shows that the Markov chains approach gives reasonable predictions for the weekly quotes and underestimates the probability for continuation of the down trend in the monthly quotes. The return and ...
CHARACTERIZATION OF MARKOV-BERNOULLI GEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION RELATED TO RANDOM SUMS
Mohamed Gharib
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The Markov-Bernoulli geometric distribution is obtained when a generalization, as a Markov process, of the independent Bernoulli sequence of random variables is introduced by considering the success probability changes with respect to the Markov chain. The resulting model is called the Markov- Bernoulli model and it has a wide variety of application fields. In this study, some characterizations are given concerning the Markov-Bernoulli geometric distribution as the distribution of the summation index of independent randomly truncated non-negative integer valued random variables. The achieved results generalize the corresponding characterizations concerning the usual geometric distribution.
We present a hierarchical Bayesian method for estimating the density and size distribution of subclad-flaws in French Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR) vessels. This model takes into account in-service inspection (ISI) data, a flaw size-dependent probability of detection (different functions are considered) with a threshold of detection, and a flaw sizing error distribution (different distributions are considered). The resulting model is identified through a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm. The article includes discussion for choosing the prior distribution parameters and an illustrative application is presented highlighting the model's ability to provide good parameter estimates even when a small number of flaws are observed
Bayesian Lorentzian profile fitting using Markov-Chain Monte Carlo: An observer's approach
Gruberbauer, M; Weiss, W W
2008-01-01
Aims. Investigating stochastically driven pulsation puts strong requirements on the quality of (observed) pulsation frequency spectra, such as the accuracy of frequencies, amplitudes, and mode life times and -- important when fitting these parameters with models -- a realistic error estimate which can be quite different to the formal error. As has been shown by other authors, the method of fitting Lorentzian profiles to the power spectrum of time-resolved photometric or spectroscopic data via the Maximum Likelihood Estimation (MLE) procedure delivers good approximations for these quantities. We, however, intend to demonstrate that a conservative Bayesian approach allows to treat this problem in a more consistent way. Methods. We derive a conservative Bayesian treatment for the probability of Lorentzian profiles being present in a power spectrum and describe its implementation via evaluating the probability density distribution of parameters by using the Markov-Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique. In addition, ...
Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler
Jin, Ick Hoon
2013-01-01
Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the existence of intractable normalizing constants. In this paper, we consider a fully Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler, which solves the issue of intractable normalizing constants encountered in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The adaptive exchange sampler can be viewed as a MCMC extension of the exchange algorithm, and it generates auxiliary networks via an importance sampling procedure from an auxiliary Markov chain running in parallel. The convergence of this algorithm is established under mild conditions. The adaptive exchange sampler is illustrated using a few social networks, including the Florentine business network, molecule synthetic network, and dolphins network. The results indicate that the adaptive exchange algorithm can produce more accurate estimates than approximate exchange algorithms, while maintaining the same computational efficiency.
Bayesian Analysis for Exponential Random Graph Models Using the Adaptive Exchange Sampler.
Jin, Ick Hoon; Yuan, Ying; Liang, Faming
2013-10-01
Exponential random graph models have been widely used in social network analysis. However, these models are extremely difficult to handle from a statistical viewpoint, because of the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy. In this paper, we consider a fully Bayesian analysis for exponential random graph models using the adaptive exchange sampler, which solves the intractable normalizing constant and model degeneracy issues encountered in Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations. The adaptive exchange sampler can be viewed as a MCMC extension of the exchange algorithm, and it generates auxiliary networks via an importance sampling procedure from an auxiliary Markov chain running in parallel. The convergence of this algorithm is established under mild conditions. The adaptive exchange sampler is illustrated using a few social networks, including the Florentine business network, molecule synthetic network, and dolphins network. The results indicate that the adaptive exchange algorithm can produce more accurate estimates than approximate exchange algorithms, while maintaining the same computational efficiency. PMID:24653788
Markov-random-field modeling for linear seismic tomography.
Kuwatani, Tatsu; Nagata, Kenji; Okada, Masato; Toriumi, Mitsuhiro
2014-10-01
We apply the Markov-random-field model to linear seismic tomography and propose a method to estimate the hyperparameters for the smoothness and the magnitude of the noise. Optimal hyperparameters can be determined analytically by minimizing the free energy function, which is defined by marginalizing the evaluation function. In synthetic inversion tests under various settings, the assumed velocity structures are successfully reconstructed, which shows the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed method. The proposed mathematical framework can be applied to inversion problems in various fields in the natural sciences. PMID:25375468
Quantitative analysis of pulmonary emphysema using isotropic Gaussian Markov random fields
Dharmagunawardhana, Chathurika; Mahmoodi, Sasan; Bennett, Michael; Niranjan, Mahesan
2014-01-01
A novel texture feature based on isotropic Gaussian Markov random fields is proposed for diagnosis and quantification of emphysema and its subtypes. Spatially varying parameters of isotropic Gaussian Markov random fields are estimated and their local distributions constructed using normalized histograms are used as effective texture features. These features integrate the essence of both statistical and structural properties of the texture. Isotropic Gaussian Markov Random Field parameter esti...
Parallel algorithms for phase unwrapping based on Markov random field models
Marroquin, Jose L.; Tapia, Maximino; Rodriguez-Vera, Ramon; Servin, Manuel
1995-12-01
A general framework is presented for the design of parallel algorithms for two-dimensional, path-independent phase unwrapping of locally inconsistent, noisy principal-value phase fields that may contain regions of invalid information. This framework is based in Bayesian estimation theory with the use of Markov random field models to construct the prior distribution, so that the solution to the unwrapping problem is characterized as the minimizer of a piecewise-quadratic functional. This method allows one to design a variety of parallel algorithms with different computational properties, which simultaneously perform the desired path-independent unwrapping, interpolate over regions with invalid data, and reduce the noise. It is also shown how this approach may be extended to the case of discontinuous phase fields, incorporating information from fringe patterns of different frequencies. Copyright (c) 1995 Optical Society of America
Recurrence and invariant measure of Markov chains in double-infinite random environments
XING; Xiusan
2001-01-01
［1］Cogburn, R., Markov chains in random environments: The case of Markovian environments, Ann. Probab., 1980, 8(3): 908—916.［2］Cogburn, R., The ergodic theory of Markov chains in random environments, Z. W., 1984, 66(2): 109—128.［3］Orey, S., Markov chains with stochastically stationary transition probabilities, Ann. Probab., 1991, 19(3): 907—928.［4］Li Yingqiu, Some notes of Markov chains in Markov environments, Advances in Mathematics(in Chinese), 1999, 28(4): 358—360.
Occurrence of hazardous accident in nuclear power plants and industrial units usually lead to release of radioactive materials and pollutants in environment. These materials and pollutants can be transported to a far downstream by the wind flow. In this paper, we implemented an atmospheric dispersion code to solve the inverse problem. Having received and detected the pollutants in one region, we may estimate the rate and location of the unknown source. For the modeling, one needs a model with ability of atmospheric dispersion calculation. Furthermore, it is required to implement a mathematical approach to infer the source location and the related rates. In this paper the AERMOD software and Bayesian inference along the Markov Chain Monte Carlo have been applied. Implementing, Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo for the aforementioned subject is not a new approach, but the AERMOD model coupled with the said methods is a new and well known regulatory software, and enhances the reliability of outcomes. To evaluate the method, an example is considered by defining pollutants concentration in a specific region and then obtaining the source location and intensity by a direct calculation. The result of the calculation estimates the average source location at a distance of 7km with an accuracy of 5m which is good enough to support the ability of the proposed algorithm.
Random billiards with wall temperature and associated Markov chains
By a random billiard we mean a billiard system in which the standard rule of specular reflection is replaced with a Markov transition probabilities operator P that gives, at each collision of the billiard particle with the boundary of the billiard domain, the probability distribution of the post-collision velocity for a given pre-collision velocity. A random billiard with microstructure, or RBM for short, is a random billiard for which P is derived from a choice of geometric/mechanical structure on the boundary of the billiard domain, as explained in the text. Such systems provide simple and explicit mechanical models of particle–surface interaction that can incorporate thermal effects and permit a detailed study of thermostatic action from the perspective of the standard theory of Markov chains on general state spaces. The main focus of this paper is on the operator P itself and how it relates to the mechanical and geometric features of the microstructure, such as mass ratios, curvatures, and potentials. The main results are as follows: (1) we give a characterization of the stationary probabilities (equilibrium states) of P and show how standard equilibrium distributions studied in classical statistical mechanics such as the Maxwell–Boltzmann distribution and the Knudsen cosine law arise naturally as generalized invariant billiard measures; (2) we obtain some of the more basic functional theoretic properties of P, in particular that P is under very general conditions a self-adjoint operator of norm 1 on a Hilbert space to be defined below, and show in a simple but somewhat typical example that P is a compact (Hilbert–Schmidt) operator. This leads to the issue of relating the spectrum of eigenvalues of P to the geometric/mechanical features of the billiard microstructure; (3) we explore the latter issue, both analytically and numerically in a few representative examples. Additionally, (4) a general algorithm for simulating the Markov chains is given based on
Vrugt, Jasper A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Hyman, James M [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Robinson, Bruce A [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Higdon, Dave [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ter Braak, Cajo J F [NETHERLANDS; Diks, Cees G H [UNIV OF AMSTERDAM
2008-01-01
Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods have found widespread use in many fields of study to estimate the average properties of complex systems, and for posterior inference in a Bayesian framework. Existing theory and experiments prove convergence of well constructed MCMC schemes to the appropriate limiting distribution under a variety of different conditions. In practice, however this convergence is often observed to be disturbingly slow. This is frequently caused by an inappropriate selection of the proposal distribution used to generate trial moves in the Markov Chain. Here we show that significant improvements to the efficiency of MCMC simulation can be made by using a self-adaptive Differential Evolution learning strategy within a population-based evolutionary framework. This scheme, entitled DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis or DREAM, runs multiple different chains simultaneously for global exploration, and automatically tunes the scale and orientation of the proposal distribution in randomized subspaces during the search. Ergodicity of the algorithm is proved, and various examples involving nonlinearity, high-dimensionality, and multimodality show that DREAM is generally superior to other adaptive MCMC sampling approaches. The DREAM scheme significantly enhances the applicability of MCMC simulation to complex, multi-modal search problems.
In this paper a novel multiresolution wavelet analysis (MWA) and non-stationary Gaussian Markov random field (GMRF) technique is introduced for the identification of microcalcifications with high accuracy. The hierarchical multiresolution wavelet information in conjunction with the contextual information of the images extracted from GMRF provides a highly efficient technique for microcalcification detection. A Bayesian teaming paradigm realized via the expectation maximization (EM) algorithm was also introduced for edge detection or segmentation of larger lesions recorded on the mammograms. The effectiveness of the approach has been extensively tested with a number of mammographic images provided by a local hospital
David G. Gadian
2011-10-01
Full Text Available A common feature of many magnetic resonance image (MRI data processing methods is the voxel-by-voxel (a voxel is a volume element manner in which the processing is performed. In general, however, MRI data are expected to exhibit some level of spatial correlation, rendering an independent-voxels treatment inefficient in its use of the data. Bayesian random effect models are expected to be more efficient owing to their information-borrowing behaviour. To illustrate the Bayesian random effects approach, this paper outlines a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC analysis of a perfusion MRI dataset, implemented in R using the BRugs package. BRugs provides an interface to WinBUGS and its GeoBUGS add-on. WinBUGS is a widely used programme for performing MCMC analyses, with a focus on Bayesian random effect models. A simultaneous modeling of both voxels (restricted to a region of interest and multiple subjects is demonstrated. Despite the low signal-to-noise ratio in the magnetic resonance signal intensity data, useful model signal intensity profiles are obtained. The merits of random effects modeling are discussed in comparison with the alternative approaches based on region-of-interest averaging and repeated independent voxels analysis. This paper focuses on perfusion MRI for the purpose of illustration, the main proposition being that random effects modeling is expected to be beneficial in many other MRI applications in which the signal-to-noise ratio is a limiting factor.
CLOUD IMAGE DETECTION BASED ON MARKOV RANDOM FIELD
Xu Xuemei; Guo Yuanwei; Wang Zhenfei
2012-01-01
In order to overcome the disadvantages of low accuracy rate,high complexity and poor robustness to image noise in many traditional algorithms of cloud image detection,this paper proposed a novel algorithm on the basis of Markov Random Field (MRF) modeling.This paper first defined algorithm model and derived the core factors affecting the performance of the algorithm,and then,the solving of this algorithm was obtained by the use of Belief Propagation (BP) algorithm and Iterated Conditional Modes (ICM) algorithm.Finally,experiments indicate that this algorithm for the cloud image detection has higher average accuracy rate which is about 98.76％ and the average result can also reach 96.92％ for different type of image noise.
Distribution estimation of hyperparameters in Markov random field models
We developed a method of distribution estimation of hyperparameters in Markov random field (MRF) models. This study was motivated by the growing quantity of image data in natural sciences owing to recent advances in measurement techniques. MRF models are used to restore images in information science, and the hyperparameters of these models can be adjusted to improve restoration performance. The parameters appearing in data analysis represent physical quantities such as diffusion coefficients. Indeed, many frameworks of hyperparameter estimation have been proposed, but most are point estimation that is susceptible to stochastic fluctuations. Distribution estimation can be used to evaluate the confidence one has in point estimates of hyperparameters, in a similar way to physicists using error bars when they evaluate important physical quantities. We use a solvable MRF model to investigate the performance of distribution estimation in simulations. (paper)
Bayesian Inference for LISA Pathfinder using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods
Ferraioli, Luigi; Plagnol, Eric
2012-01-01
We present a parameter estimation procedure based on a Bayesian framework by applying a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to the calibration of the dynamical parameters of a space based gravitational wave detector. The method is based on the Metropolis-Hastings algorithm and a two-stage annealing treatment in order to ensure an effective exploration of the parameter space at the beginning of the chain. We compare two versions of the algorithm with an application to a LISA Pathfinder data analysis problem. The two algorithms share the same heating strategy but with one moving in coordinate directions using proposals from a multivariate Gaussian distribution, while the other uses the natural logarithm of some parameters and proposes jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix. The algorithm proposing jumps in the eigen-space of the Fisher Information matrix demonstrates a higher acceptance rate and a slightly better convergence towards the equilibrium parameter distributions in the application to...
Wind Farm Reliability Modelling Using Bayesian Networks and Semi-Markov Processes
Robert Adam Sobolewski
2015-09-01
Full Text Available Technical reliability plays an important role among factors affecting the power output of a wind farm. The reliability is determined by an internal collection grid topology and reliability of its electrical components, e.g. generators, transformers, cables, switch breakers, protective relays, and busbars. A wind farm reliability’s quantitative measure can be the probability distribution of combinations of operating and failed states of the farm’s wind turbines. The operating state of a wind turbine is its ability to generate power and to transfer it to an external power grid, which means the availability of the wind turbine and other equipment necessary for the power transfer to the external grid. This measure can be used for quantitative analysis of the impact of various wind farm topologies and the reliability of individual farm components on the farm reliability, and for determining the expected farm output power with consideration of the reliability. This knowledge may be useful in an analysis of power generation reliability in power systems. The paper presents probabilistic models that quantify the wind farm reliability taking into account the above-mentioned technical factors. To formulate the reliability models Bayesian networks and semi-Markov processes were used. Using Bayesian networks the wind farm structural reliability was mapped, as well as quantitative characteristics describing equipment reliability. To determine the characteristics semi-Markov processes were used. The paper presents an example calculation of: (i probability distribution of the combination of both operating and failed states of four wind turbines included in the wind farm, and (ii expected wind farm output power with consideration of its reliability.
Bayesian Models of Graphs, Arrays and Other Exchangeable Random Structures.
Orbanz, Peter; Roy, Daniel M
2015-02-01
The natural habitat of most Bayesian methods is data represented by exchangeable sequences of observations, for which de Finetti's theorem provides the theoretical foundation. Dirichlet process clustering, Gaussian process regression, and many other parametric and nonparametric Bayesian models fall within the remit of this framework; many problems arising in modern data analysis do not. This article provides an introduction to Bayesian models of graphs, matrices, and other data that can be modeled by random structures. We describe results in probability theory that generalize de Finetti's theorem to such data and discuss their relevance to nonparametric Bayesian modeling. With the basic ideas in place, we survey example models available in the literature; applications of such models include collaborative filtering, link prediction, and graph and network analysis. We also highlight connections to recent developments in graph theory and probability, and sketch the more general mathematical foundation of Bayesian methods for other types of data beyond sequences and arrays. PMID:26353253
A Very Simple Safe-Bayesian Random Forest.
Quadrianto, Novi; Ghahramani, Zoubin
2015-06-01
Random forests works by averaging several predictions of de-correlated trees. We show a conceptually radical approach to generate a random forest: random sampling of many trees from a prior distribution, and subsequently performing a weighted ensemble of predictive probabilities. Our approach uses priors that allow sampling of decision trees even before looking at the data, and a power likelihood that explores the space spanned by combination of decision trees. While each tree performs Bayesian inference to compute its predictions, our aggregation procedure uses the power likelihood rather than the likelihood and is therefore strictly speaking not Bayesian. Nonetheless, we refer to it as a Bayesian random forest but with a built-in safety. The safeness comes as it has good predictive performance even if the underlying probabilistic model is wrong. We demonstrate empirically that our Safe-Bayesian random forest outperforms MCMC or SMC based Bayesian decision trees in term of speed and accuracy, and achieves competitive performance to entropy or Gini optimised random forest, yet is very simple to construct. PMID:26357350
Hidden Markov induced Dynamic Bayesian Network for recovering time evolving gene regulatory networks
Zhu, Shijia; Wang, Yadong
2015-12-01
Dynamic Bayesian Networks (DBN) have been widely used to recover gene regulatory relationships from time-series data in computational systems biology. Its standard assumption is ‘stationarity’, and therefore, several research efforts have been recently proposed to relax this restriction. However, those methods suffer from three challenges: long running time, low accuracy and reliance on parameter settings. To address these problems, we propose a novel non-stationary DBN model by extending each hidden node of Hidden Markov Model into a DBN (called HMDBN), which properly handles the underlying time-evolving networks. Correspondingly, an improved structural EM algorithm is proposed to learn the HMDBN. It dramatically reduces searching space, thereby substantially improving computational efficiency. Additionally, we derived a novel generalized Bayesian Information Criterion under the non-stationary assumption (called BWBIC), which can help significantly improve the reconstruction accuracy and largely reduce over-fitting. Moreover, the re-estimation formulas for all parameters of our model are derived, enabling us to avoid reliance on parameter settings. Compared to the state-of-the-art methods, the experimental evaluation of our proposed method on both synthetic and real biological data demonstrates more stably high prediction accuracy and significantly improved computation efficiency, even with no prior knowledge and parameter settings.
Bayesian Optimization in a Billion Dimensions via Random Embeddings
Wang, Ziyu; Hutter, Frank; Zoghi, Masrour; Matheson, David; De Freitas, Nando
2013-01-01
Bayesian optimization techniques have been successfully applied to robotics, planning, sensor placement, recommendation, advertising, intelligent user interfaces and automatic algorithm configuration. Despite these successes, the approach is restricted to problems of moderate dimension, and several workshops on Bayesian optimization have identified its scaling to high-dimensions as one of the holy grails of the field. In this paper, we introduce a novel random embedding idea to attack this pr...
Learning Markov Random Walks for robust subspace clustering and estimation.
Liu, Risheng; Lin, Zhouchen; Su, Zhixun
2014-11-01
Markov Random Walks (MRW) has proven to be an effective way to understand spectral clustering and embedding. However, due to less global structural measure, conventional MRW (e.g., the Gaussian kernel MRW) cannot be applied to handle data points drawn from a mixture of subspaces. In this paper, we introduce a regularized MRW learning model, using a low-rank penalty to constrain the global subspace structure, for subspace clustering and estimation. In our framework, both the local pairwise similarity and the global subspace structure can be learnt from the transition probabilities of MRW. We prove that under some suitable conditions, our proposed local/global criteria can exactly capture the multiple subspace structure and learn a low-dimensional embedding for the data, in which giving the true segmentation of subspaces. To improve robustness in real situations, we also propose an extension of the MRW learning model based on integrating transition matrix learning and error correction in a unified framework. Experimental results on both synthetic data and real applications demonstrate that our proposed MRW learning model and its robust extension outperform the state-of-the-art subspace clustering methods. PMID:25005156
IMAGE SEGMENTATION BASED ON MARKOV RANDOM FIELD AND WATERSHED TECHNIQUES
纳瑟; 刘重庆
2002-01-01
This paper presented a method that incorporates Markov Random Field(MRF), watershed segmentation and merging techniques for performing image segmentation and edge detection tasks. MRF is used to obtain an initial estimate of x regions in the image under process where in MRF model, gray level x, at pixel location i, in an image X, depends on the gray levels of neighboring pixels. The process needs an initial segmented result. An initial segmentation is got based on K-means clustering technique and the minimum distance, then the region process in modeled by MRF to obtain an image contains different intensity regions. Starting from this we calculate the gradient values of that image and then employ a watershed technique. When using MRF method it obtains an image that has different intensity regions and has all the edge and region information, then it improves the segmentation result by superimpose closed and an accurate boundary of each region using watershed algorithm. After all pixels of the segmented regions have been processed, a map of primitive region with edges is generated. Finally, a merge process based on averaged mean values is employed. The final segmentation and edge detection result is one closed boundary per actual region in the image.
Bayesian inference along Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach for PWR core loading pattern optimization
Highlights: ► The BIMCMC method performs very well and is comparable to GA and PSO techniques. ► The potential of the technique is very well for optimization. ► It is observed that the performance of the method is quite adequate. ► The BIMCMC is very easy to implement. -- Abstract: Despite remarkable progress in optimization procedures, inherent complexities in nuclear reactor structure and strong interdependence among the fundamental indices namely, economic, neutronic, thermo-hydraulic and environmental effects make it necessary to evaluate the most efficient arrangement of a reactor core. In this paper a reactor core reloading technique based on Bayesian inference along Markov Chain Monte Carlo, BIMCMC, is addressed in the context of obtaining an optimal configuration of fuel assemblies in reactor cores. The Markov Chain Monte Carlo with Metropolis–Hastings algorithm has been applied for sampling variable and its acceptance. The proposed algorithm can be used for in-core fuel management optimization problems in pressurized water reactors. Considerable work has been expended for loading pattern optimization, but no preferred approach has yet emerged. To evaluate the proposed technique, increasing the effective multiplication factor Keff of a WWER-1000 core along flattening power with keeping power peaking factor below a specific limit as a first test case and flattening of power as a second test case are considered as objective functions; although other variables such as burn up and cycle length can also be taken into account. The results, convergence rate and reliability of the new method are compared to published data resulting from particle swarm optimization and genetic algorithm; the outcome is quite promising and demonstrating the potential of the technique very well for optimization applications in the nuclear engineering field.
Valečková, Markéta; Kárný, Miroslav; Sutanto, E. L.
2001-01-01
Roč. 37, č. 6 (2001), s. 1071-1078. ISSN 0005-1098 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/99/1564 Grant ostatní: IST(XE) 1999/12058 Institutional research plan: AV0Z1075907 Keywords : Markov chain * clustering * Bayesian mixture estimation Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory Impact factor: 1.449, year: 2001
Murakami, Yohei; Takada, Shoji
2013-01-01
When exact values of model parameters in systems biology are not available from experiments, they need to be inferred so that the resulting simulation reproduces the experimentally known phenomena. For the purpose, Bayesian statistics with Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is a useful method. Biological experiments are often performed with cell population, and the results are represented by histograms. On another front, experiments sometimes indicate the existence of a specific bifurcation patt...
Time-coherency of Bayesian priors on transient semi-Markov chains for audio-to-score alignment
Cuvillier, Philippe
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a novel insight to the problem of real-time alignment with Bayesian inference. When a prior knowledge about the duration of events is available, Semi-Markov models allow the setting of individual duration distributions but give no clue about their choice. We propose a criterion of temporal coherency for such applications and show it might be obtained with the right choice of estimation method. Theoretical insights are obtained through the study of the prior state probabili...
Zhiyan Shi; Weiguo Yang
2009-01-01
We study some limit properties of the harmonic mean of random transition probability for a second-order nonhomogeneous Markov chain and a nonhomogeneous Markov chain indexed by a tree. As corollary, we obtain the property of the harmonic mean of random transition probability for a nonhomogeneous Markov chain.
Holan, S.H.; Davis, G.M.; Wildhaber, M.L.; DeLonay, A.J.; Papoulias, D.M.
2009-01-01
The timing of spawning in fish is tightly linked to environmental factors; however, these factors are not very well understood for many species. Specifically, little information is available to guide recruitment efforts for endangered species such as the sturgeon. Therefore, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model for predicting the success of spawning of the shovelnose sturgeon which uses both biological and behavioural (longitudinal) data. In particular, we use data that were produced from a tracking study that was conducted in the Lower Missouri River. The data that were produced from this study consist of biological variables associated with readiness to spawn along with longitudinal behavioural data collected by using telemetry and archival data storage tags. These high frequency data are complex both biologically and in the underlying behavioural process. To accommodate such complexity we developed a hierarchical linear regression model that uses an eigenvalue predictor, derived from the transition probability matrix of a two-state Markov switching model with generalized auto-regressive conditional heteroscedastic dynamics. Finally, to minimize the computational burden that is associated with estimation of this model, a parallel computing approach is proposed. ?? Journal compilation 2009 Royal Statistical Society.
Segmentation of cone-beam CT using a hidden Markov random field with informative priors
Moores, M.; Hargrave, C.; Harden, F.; Mengersen, K.
2014-03-01
Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) has enormous potential to improve the accuracy of treatment delivery in image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). To assist radiotherapists in interpreting these images, we use a Bayesian statistical model to label each voxel according to its tissue type. The rich sources of prior information in IGRT are incorporated into a hidden Markov random field model of the 3D image lattice. Tissue densities in the reference CT scan are estimated using inverse regression and then rescaled to approximate the corresponding CBCT intensity values. The treatment planning contours are combined with published studies of physiological variability to produce a spatial prior distribution for changes in the size, shape and position of the tumour volume and organs at risk. The voxel labels are estimated using iterated conditional modes. The accuracy of the method has been evaluated using 27 CBCT scans of an electron density phantom. The mean voxel-wise misclassification rate was 6.2%, with Dice similarity coefficient of 0.73 for liver, muscle, breast and adipose tissue. By incorporating prior information, we are able to successfully segment CBCT images. This could be a viable approach for automated, online image analysis in radiotherapy.
Posterior Mean Super-resolution with a Causal Gaussian Markov Random Field Prior
Katsuki, Takayuki; Inoue, Masato
2011-01-01
We propose a Bayesian image super-resolution (SR) method with a causal Gaussian Markov random field (MRF) prior. SR is a technique to estimate a spatially high-resolution image from given multiple low-resolution images. An MRF model with the line process supplies a preferable prior for natural images with edges. We improve the existing image transformation model, the compound MRF model, and its hyperparameter prior model. We also logically derive the optimal estimator -- not joint maximum a posteriori (MAP) or marginalized maximum likelihood (ML), but posterior mean (PM) -- from the objective function of the L2-norm (mean square error) -based peak signal-to-noise ratio (PSNR). Point estimates such as MAP and ML are generally not stable in ill-posed high-dimensional problems because of overfitting, while PM is a stable estimator because all the parameters in the model are evaluated as distributions. The estimator is numerically determined by using variational Bayes. Variational Bayes is a widely used method th...
Segmentation of cone-beam CT using a hidden Markov random field with informative priors
Cone-beam computed tomography (CBCT) has enormous potential to improve the accuracy of treatment delivery in image-guided radiotherapy (IGRT). To assist radiotherapists in interpreting these images, we use a Bayesian statistical model to label each voxel according to its tissue type. The rich sources of prior information in IGRT are incorporated into a hidden Markov random field model of the 3D image lattice. Tissue densities in the reference CT scan are estimated using inverse regression and then rescaled to approximate the corresponding CBCT intensity values. The treatment planning contours are combined with published studies of physiological variability to produce a spatial prior distribution for changes in the size, shape and position of the tumour volume and organs at risk. The voxel labels are estimated using iterated conditional modes. The accuracy of the method has been evaluated using 27 CBCT scans of an electron density phantom. The mean voxel-wise misclassification rate was 6.2%, with Dice similarity coefficient of 0.73 for liver, muscle, breast and adipose tissue. By incorporating prior information, we are able to successfully segment CBCT images. This could be a viable approach for automated, online image analysis in radiotherapy.
Carlos Alejandro De Luna Ortega
2006-01-01
Full Text Available En este artículo se aborda el diseño de un reconocedor de voz, con el idioma español mexicano, del estado de Aguascalientes, de palabras aisladas, con dependencia del hablante y vocabulario pequeño, empleando Redes Neuronales Artificiales (ANN por sus siglas en inglés, Alineamiento Dinámico del Tiempo (DTW por sus siglas en inglés y Modelos Ocultos de Markov (HMM por sus siglas en inglés para la realización del algoritmo de reconocimiento.
Kuwatani, Tatsu; Nagata, Kenji; Okada, Masato; Toriumi, Mitsuhiro
2012-03-01
The chemical zoning profile in metamorphic minerals is often used to deduce the pressure-temperature ( P- T) history of rock. However, it remains difficult to restore detailed paths from zoned minerals because thermobarometric evaluation of metamorphic conditions involves several uncertainties, including measurement errors and geological noise. We propose a new stochastic framework for estimating precise P- T paths from a chemical zoning structure using the Markov random field (MRF) model, which is a type of Bayesian stochastic method that is often applied to image analysis. The continuity of pressure and temperature during mineral growth is incorporated by Gaussian Markov chains as prior probabilities in order to apply the MRF model to the P- T path inversion. The most probable P- T path can be obtained by maximizing the posterior probability of the sequential set of P and T given the observed compositions of zoned minerals. Synthetic P- T inversion tests were conducted in order to investigate the effectiveness and validity of the proposed model from zoned Mg-Fe-Ca garnet in the divariant KNCFMASH system. In the present study, the steepest descent method was implemented in order to maximize the posterior probability using the Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. The proposed method successfully reproduced the detailed shape of the synthetic P- T path by eliminating appropriately the statistical compositional noises without operator's subjectivity and prior knowledge. It was also used to simultaneously evaluate the uncertainty of pressure, temperature, and mineral compositions for all measurement points. The MRF method may have potential to deal with several geological uncertainties, which cause cumbersome systematic errors, by its Bayesian approach and flexible formalism, so that it comprises potentially powerful tools for various inverse problems in petrology.
THE DECOMPOSITION OF STATE SPACE FOR MARKOV CHAIN IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENT
Hu Dihe
2005-01-01
This paper is a continuation of [8] and [9]. The author obtains the decomposition of state space χof an Markov chain in random environment by making use of the results in [8] and [9], gives three examples, random walk in random environment, renewal process in random environment and queue process in random environment, and obtains the decompositions of the state spaces of these three special examples.
Bayesian segmentation of hyperspectral images
Mohammadpour, Adel; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2007-01-01
In this paper we consider the problem of joint segmentation of hyperspectral images in the Bayesian framework. The proposed approach is based on a Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) of the images with common segmentation, or equivalently with common hidden classification label variables which is modeled by a Potts Markov Random Field. We introduce an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to implement the method and show some simulation results.
Bayesian segmentation of hyperspectral images
Mohammadpour, Adel; Féron, Olivier; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2004-11-01
In this paper we consider the problem of joint segmentation of hyperspectral images in the Bayesian framework. The proposed approach is based on a Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) of the images with common segmentation, or equivalently with common hidden classification label variables which is modeled by a Potts Markov Random Field. We introduce an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to implement the method and show some simulation results.
THE CONSTRUCTION OF MULTITYPE CANONICAL MARKOV BRANCHING CHAINS IN RANDOM ENVIRONMENTS
无
2006-01-01
The investigation for branching processes has a long history by their strong physics background, but only a few authors have investigated the branching processes in random environments. First of all, the author introduces the concepts of the multitype canonical Markov branching chain in random environment (CMBCRE) and multitype Markov branching chain in random environment (MBCRE) and proved that CMBCRE must be MBCRE, and any MBCRE must be equivalent to another CMBCRE in distribution. The main results of this article are the construction of CMBCRE and some of its probability properties.
Olivares, G.; Teferle, F. N.
2013-12-01
Geodetic time series provide information which helps to constrain theoretical models of geophysical processes. It is well established that such time series, for example from GPS, superconducting gravity or mean sea level (MSL), contain time-correlated noise which is usually assumed to be a combination of a long-term stochastic process (characterized by a power-law spectrum) and random noise. Therefore, when fitting a model to geodetic time series it is essential to also estimate the stochastic parameters beside the deterministic ones. Often the stochastic parameters include the power amplitudes of both time-correlated and random noise, as well as, the spectral index of the power-law process. To date, the most widely used method for obtaining these parameter estimates is based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). We present an integration method, the Bayesian Monte Carlo Markov Chain (MCMC) method, which, by using Markov chains, provides a sample of the posteriori distribution of all parameters and, thereby, using Monte Carlo integration, all parameters and their uncertainties are estimated simultaneously. This algorithm automatically optimizes the Markov chain step size and estimates the convergence state by spectral analysis of the chain. We assess the MCMC method through comparison with MLE, using the recently released GPS position time series from JPL and apply it also to the MSL time series from the Revised Local Reference data base of the PSMSL. Although the parameter estimates for both methods are fairly equivalent, they suggest that the MCMC method has some advantages over MLE, for example, without further computations it provides the spectral index uncertainty, is computationally stable and detects multimodality.
A new method for the experimental determination of stopping powers based on Bayesian Inference with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm has been devised. This method avoids the difficulties related to thin target preparation. By measuring the RBS spectra for a known material, and using the known underlying physics, the stopping powers are determined by best matching the simulated spectra with the experimental spectra. Using silicon, SiO2 and Al2O3 as test cases, good agreement is obtained between calculated and experimental data. (author)
Hierarchical Semi-Markov Conditional Random Fields for Recursive Sequential Data
Truyen, Tran The; Bui, Hung H; Venkatesh, Svetha
2010-01-01
Inspired by the hierarchical hidden Markov models (HHMM), we present the hierarchical semi-Markov conditional random field (HSCRF), a generalisation of embedded undirectedMarkov chains tomodel complex hierarchical, nestedMarkov processes. It is parameterised in a discriminative framework and has polynomial time algorithms for learning and inference. Importantly, we consider partiallysupervised learning and propose algorithms for generalised partially-supervised learning and constrained inference. We demonstrate the HSCRF in two applications: (i) recognising human activities of daily living (ADLs) from indoor surveillance cameras, and (ii) noun-phrase chunking. We show that the HSCRF is capable of learning rich hierarchical models with reasonable accuracy in both fully and partially observed data cases.
Random recurrence equations and ruin in a Markov-dependent stochastic economic environment
Collamore, Jeffrey F.
2009-01-01
We develop sharp large deviation asymptotics for the probability of ruin in a Markov-dependent stochastic economic environment and study the extremes for some related Markovian processes which arise in financial and insurance mathematics, related to perpetuities and the ARCH(1) and GARCH(1,1) time...... series models. Our results build upon work of Goldie, who has developed tail asymptotics applicable for independent sequences of random variables subject to a random recurrence equation. In contrast, we adopt a general approach based on the theory of Harris recurrent Markov chains and the associated...
THE DECISION OF THE OPTIMAL PARAMETERS IN MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS OF IMAGES BY GENETIC ALGORITHM
无
2000-01-01
This paper introduces the principle of genetic algorithm and the basic method of solving Markov random field parameters.Focusing on the shortcomings in present methods,a new method based on genetic algorithms is proposed to solve the parameters in the Markov random field.The detailed procedure is discussed.On the basis of the parameters solved by genetic algorithms,some experim ents on classification of aerial images are given.Experimental results show that the proposed method is effective and the classification results are satisfactory.
Patriche, Monica
2013-01-01
In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian abstract fuzzy economy model and we prove the Bayesian fuzzy equilibrium existence. As applications, we prove the existence of the solutions for two types of random quasi-variational inequalities with random fuzzy mappings and we also obtain random fixed point theorems.
Colonoscopy video quality assessment using hidden Markov random fields
Park, Sun Young; Sargent, Dusty; Spofford, Inbar; Vosburgh, Kirby
2011-03-01
With colonoscopy becoming a common procedure for individuals aged 50 or more who are at risk of developing colorectal cancer (CRC), colon video data is being accumulated at an ever increasing rate. However, the clinically valuable information contained in these videos is not being maximally exploited to improve patient care and accelerate the development of new screening methods. One of the well-known difficulties in colonoscopy video analysis is the abundance of frames with no diagnostic information. Approximately 40% - 50% of the frames in a colonoscopy video are contaminated by noise, acquisition errors, glare, blur, and uneven illumination. Therefore, filtering out low quality frames containing no diagnostic information can significantly improve the efficiency of colonoscopy video analysis. To address this challenge, we present a quality assessment algorithm to detect and remove low quality, uninformative frames. The goal of our algorithm is to discard low quality frames while retaining all diagnostically relevant information. Our algorithm is based on a hidden Markov model (HMM) in combination with two measures of data quality to filter out uninformative frames. Furthermore, we present a two-level framework based on an embedded hidden Markov model (EHHM) to incorporate the proposed quality assessment algorithm into a complete, automated diagnostic image analysis system for colonoscopy video.
Entropy, complexity, and Markov diagrams for random walk cancer models
Newton, Paul K.; Mason, Jeremy; Hurt, Brian; Bethel, Kelly; Bazhenova, Lyudmila; Nieva, Jorge; Kuhn, Peter
2014-12-01
The notion of entropy is used to compare the complexity associated with 12 common cancers based on metastatic tumor distribution autopsy data. We characterize power-law distributions, entropy, and Kullback-Liebler divergence associated with each primary cancer as compared with data for all cancer types aggregated. We then correlate entropy values with other measures of complexity associated with Markov chain dynamical systems models of progression. The Markov transition matrix associated with each cancer is associated with a directed graph model where nodes are anatomical locations where a metastatic tumor could develop, and edge weightings are transition probabilities of progression from site to site. The steady-state distribution corresponds to the autopsy data distribution. Entropy correlates well with the overall complexity of the reduced directed graph structure for each cancer and with a measure of systemic interconnectedness of the graph, called graph conductance. The models suggest that grouping cancers according to their entropy values, with skin, breast, kidney, and lung cancers being prototypical high entropy cancers, stomach, uterine, pancreatic and ovarian being mid-level entropy cancers, and colorectal, cervical, bladder, and prostate cancers being prototypical low entropy cancers, provides a potentially useful framework for viewing metastatic cancer in terms of predictability, complexity, and metastatic potential.
Giulia Carreras
2012-09-01
Full Text Available
Background: parameter uncertainty in the Markov model’s description of a disease course was addressed. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA is now considered the only tool that properly permits parameter uncertainty’s examination. This consists in sampling values from the parameter’s probability distributions.
Methods: Markov models fitted with microsimulation were considered and methods for carrying out a PSA on transition probabilities were studied. Two Bayesian solutions were developed: for each row of the modeled transition matrix the prior distribution was assumed as a product of Beta or a Dirichlet. The two solutions differ in the source of information: several different sources for each transition in the Beta approach and a single source for each transition from a given health state in the Dirichlet. The two methods were applied to a simple cervical cancer’s model.
Results : differences between posterior estimates from the two methods were negligible. Results showed that the prior variability highly influence the posterior distribution.
Conclusions: the novelty of this work is the Bayesian approach that integrates the two distributions with a product of Binomial distributions likelihood. Such methods could be also applied to cohort data and their application to more complex models could be useful and unique in the cervical cancer context, as well as in other disease modeling.
Bayesian Fine-Scale Mapping of Disease Loci, by Hidden Markov Models
Morris, A P; Whittaker, J C; Balding, D. J.
2000-01-01
We present a new multilocus method for the fine-scale mapping of genes contributing to human diseases. The method is designed for use with multiple biallelic markers—in particular, single-nucleotide polymorphisms for which high-density genetic maps will soon be available. We model disease-marker association in a candidate region via a hidden Markov process and allow for correlation between linked marker loci. Using Markov-chain–Monte Carlo simulation methods, we obtain posterior distributions...
Derivation of the Convective Dispersion Equation with Adsorption by Markov Random Ways
The convective dispersion equation with adsorption is derived on the basis of the Chapman−Kolmogroff equation which expresses the statistical properties of the Markov transition probability. The acquired equation has the same expression as the one derived on the basis of the combination of both the mass balance equation and the particles retention kinetics equation. The probability variables that describe the random movement of solute particles have a definite physical significance associated with the parameters in the convective dispersion equation. The derivation confirms the validity of the Markov process to describe the particles movement in the process of convective dispersion. (fundamental areas of phenomenology (including applications))
Ryu, Duchwan
2010-09-28
We consider nonparametric regression analysis in a generalized linear model (GLM) framework for data with covariates that are the subject-specific random effects of longitudinal measurements. The usual assumption that the effects of the longitudinal covariate processes are linear in the GLM may be unrealistic and if this happens it can cast doubt on the inference of observed covariate effects. Allowing the regression functions to be unknown, we propose to apply Bayesian nonparametric methods including cubic smoothing splines or P-splines for the possible nonlinearity and use an additive model in this complex setting. To improve computational efficiency, we propose the use of data-augmentation schemes. The approach allows flexible covariance structures for the random effects and within-subject measurement errors of the longitudinal processes. The posterior model space is explored through a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampler. The proposed methods are illustrated and compared to other approaches, the "naive" approach and the regression calibration, via simulations and by an application that investigates the relationship between obesity in adulthood and childhood growth curves. © 2010, The International Biometric Society.
Algorithms for random generation and counting a Markov chain approach
Sinclair, Alistair
1993-01-01
This monograph studies two classical computational problems: counting the elements of a finite set of combinatorial structures, and generating them at random from some probability distribution. Apart from their intrinsic interest, these problems arise naturally in many branches of mathematics and the natural sciences.
States recognition in random walk Markov chain via binary Entropy
Morteza Khodabin
2013-03-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a new method for specification of recurrence or transient of states in one and two dimensional simple random walk based on upper and lower bounds of {it r}-combinations from a set of m elements $(C^{m}_{r}$ via binary entropy is introduced.
Wang, Hongyan; Zhou, Xiaobo
2013-04-01
By altering the electrostatic charge of histones or providing binding sites to protein recognition molecules, Chromatin marks have been proposed to regulate gene expression, a property that has motivated researchers to link these marks to cis-regulatory elements. With the help of next generation sequencing technologies, we can now correlate one specific chromatin mark with regulatory elements (e.g. enhancers or promoters) and also build tools, such as hidden Markov models, to gain insight into mark combinations. However, hidden Markov models have limitation for their character of generative models and assume that a current observation depends only on a current hidden state in the chain. Here, we employed two graphical probabilistic models, namely the linear conditional random field model and multivariate hidden Markov model, to mark gene regions with different states based on recurrent and spatially coherent character of these eight marks. Both models revealed chromatin states that may correspond to enhancers and promoters, transcribed regions, transcriptional elongation, and low-signal regions. We also found that the linear conditional random field model was more effective than the hidden Markov model in recognizing regulatory elements, such as promoter-, enhancer-, and transcriptional elongation-associated regions, which gives us a better choice. PMID:23237214
Weinberg, Martin D
2009-01-01
Computation of the marginal likelihood or "Bayesian Evidence" from a simulated posterior distribution is central to Bayesian model selection but is fraught with difficulty. The often-used harmonic mean approximation uses the posterior directly but is unstably sensitive to samples with anomalously small values of the likelihood and converges very slowly. The Laplace approximation is stable but makes strong, and often inappropriate, assumptions about the shape of the posterior distribution. It is useful, but not general. We need an algorithm that is general and easy to apply, like the harmonic mean approximation, but robust to sample size and multimodality. Here, I argue that the evidence can be stably computed from a posterior sample by careful attention to the numerics of the probability integral. Posing the expression for the Bayesian evidence as a Lebesgue integral, we may convert the evaluation of the sample statistic to a quadrature rule and show that the harmonic mean approximation suffers from enormous ...
Optimization by Estimation of Distribution with DEUM Framework Based on Markov Random Fields
Siddhartha Shakya; John McCall
2007-01-01
This paper presents a Markov random field (MRP) approach to estimating and sampling the probability distribution in populations of solutions. The approach is used to define a class of algorithms under the general heading distribution estimation using Markov random fields (DEUM). DEUM is a subclass of estimation of distribution algorithms (EDAs) where interaction between solution variables is represented as an undirected graph and the joint probability of a solution is factorized as a Gibbs distribution derived from the structure of the graph. The focus of this paper will be on describing the three main characteristics of DEUM framework, which distinguishes it from the traditional EDA. They are: 1) use of MRF models, 2) fitness modeling approach to estimating the parameter of the model and 3) Monte Carlo approach to sampling from the model.
Rigid Slice-To-Volume Medical Image Registration through Markov Random Fields
Porchetto, Roque; Stramana, Franco; Paragios, Nikos; Ferrante, Enzo
2016-01-01
Rigid slice-to-volume registration is a challenging task, which finds application in medical imaging problems like image fusion for image guided surgeries and motion correction for volume reconstruction. It is usually formulated as an optimization problem and solved using standard continuous methods. In this paper, we discuss how this task be formulated as a discrete labeling problem on a graph. Inspired by previous works on discrete estimation of linear transformations using Markov Random Fi...
Continuous Markov Random Fields for Robust Stereo Estimation
Yamaguchi, Koichiro; McAllester, David; Urtasun, Raquel
2012-01-01
In this paper we present a novel slanted-plane MRF model which reasons jointly about occlusion boundaries as well as depth. We formulate the problem as the one of inference in a hybrid MRF composed of both continuous (i.e., slanted 3D planes) and discrete (i.e., occlusion boundaries) random variables. This allows us to define potentials encoding the ownership of the pixels that compose the boundary between segments, as well as potentials encoding which junctions are physically possible. Our approach outperforms the state-of-the-art on Middlebury high resolution imagery as well as in the more challenging KITTI dataset, while being more efficient than existing slanted plane MRF-based methods, taking on average 2 minutes to perform inference on high resolution imagery.
Bayesian clustering of DNA sequences using Markov chains and a stochastic partition model.
Jääskinen, Väinö; Parkkinen, Ville; Cheng, Lu; Corander, Jukka
2014-02-01
In many biological applications it is necessary to cluster DNA sequences into groups that represent underlying organismal units, such as named species or genera. In metagenomics this grouping needs typically to be achieved on the basis of relatively short sequences which contain different types of errors, making the use of a statistical modeling approach desirable. Here we introduce a novel method for this purpose by developing a stochastic partition model that clusters Markov chains of a given order. The model is based on a Dirichlet process prior and we use conjugate priors for the Markov chain parameters which enables an analytical expression for comparing the marginal likelihoods of any two partitions. To find a good candidate for the posterior mode in the partition space, we use a hybrid computational approach which combines the EM-algorithm with a greedy search. This is demonstrated to be faster and yield highly accurate results compared to earlier suggested clustering methods for the metagenomics application. Our model is fairly generic and could also be used for clustering of other types of sequence data for which Markov chains provide a reasonable way to compress information, as illustrated by experiments on shotgun sequence type data from an Escherichia coli strain. PMID:24246289
Waldmann, Patrik; Hallander, Jon; Hoti, Fabian; Sillanpää, Mikko J
2008-06-01
Accurate and fast computation of quantitative genetic variance parameters is of great importance in both natural and breeding populations. For experimental designs with complex relationship structures it can be important to include both additive and dominance variance components in the statistical model. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian Gibbs sampling approach for estimation of additive and dominance genetic variances in the traditional infinitesimal model. The method can handle general pedigrees without inbreeding. To optimize between computational time and good mixing of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains, we used a hybrid Gibbs sampler that combines a single site and a blocked Gibbs sampler. The speed of the hybrid sampler and the mixing of the single-site sampler were further improved by the use of pretransformed variables. Two traits (height and trunk diameter) from a previously published diallel progeny test of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and two large simulated data sets with different levels of dominance variance were analyzed. We also performed Bayesian model comparison on the basis of the posterior predictive loss approach. Results showed that models with both additive and dominance components had the best fit for both height and diameter and for the simulated data with high dominance. For the simulated data with low dominance, we needed an informative prior to avoid the dominance variance component becoming overestimated. The narrow-sense heritability estimates in the Scots pine data were lower compared to the earlier results, which is not surprising because the level of dominance variance was rather high, especially for diameter. In general, the hybrid sampler was considerably faster than the blocked sampler and displayed better mixing properties than the single-site sampler. PMID:18558655
Waldmann, Patrik; Hallander, Jon; Hoti, Fabian; Sillanpää, Mikko J.
2008-01-01
Accurate and fast computation of quantitative genetic variance parameters is of great importance in both natural and breeding populations. For experimental designs with complex relationship structures it can be important to include both additive and dominance variance components in the statistical model. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian Gibbs sampling approach for estimation of additive and dominance genetic variances in the traditional infinitesimal model. The method can handle general pedigrees without inbreeding. To optimize between computational time and good mixing of the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) chains, we used a hybrid Gibbs sampler that combines a single site and a blocked Gibbs sampler. The speed of the hybrid sampler and the mixing of the single-site sampler were further improved by the use of pretransformed variables. Two traits (height and trunk diameter) from a previously published diallel progeny test of Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) and two large simulated data sets with different levels of dominance variance were analyzed. We also performed Bayesian model comparison on the basis of the posterior predictive loss approach. Results showed that models with both additive and dominance components had the best fit for both height and diameter and for the simulated data with high dominance. For the simulated data with low dominance, we needed an informative prior to avoid the dominance variance component becoming overestimated. The narrow-sense heritability estimates in the Scots pine data were lower compared to the earlier results, which is not surprising because the level of dominance variance was rather high, especially for diameter. In general, the hybrid sampler was considerably faster than the blocked sampler and displayed better mixing properties than the single-site sampler. PMID:18558655
Efficient Bayesian estimation of Markov model transition matrices with given stationary distribution
Trendelkamp-Schroer, Benjamin
2013-01-01
Direct simulation of biomolecular dynamics in thermal equilibrium is challenging due to the metastable nature of conformation dynamics and the computational cost of molecular dynamics. Biased or enhanced sampling methods may improve the convergence of expectation values of equilibrium probabilities and expectation values of stationary quantities significantly. Unfortunately the convergence of dynamic observables such as correlation functions or timescales of conformational transitions relies on direct equilibrium simulations. Markov state models are well suited to describe both, stationary properties and properties of slow dynamical processes of a molecular system, in terms of a transition matrix for a jump process on a suitable discretiza- tion of continuous conformation space. Here, we introduce statistical estimation methods that allow a priori knowledge of equilibrium probabilities to be incorporated into the estimation of dynamical observables. Both, maximum likelihood methods and an improved Monte Carlo...
Minsley, B.J.
2011-01-01
A meaningful interpretation of geophysical measurements requires an assessment of the space of models that are consistent with the data, rather than just a single, 'best' model which does not convey information about parameter uncertainty. For this purpose, a trans-dimensional Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm is developed for assessing frequency-domain electromagnetic (FDEM) data acquired from airborne or ground-based systems. By sampling the distribution of models that are consistent with measured data and any prior knowledge, valuable inferences can be made about parameter values such as the likely depth to an interface, the distribution of possible resistivity values as a function of depth and non-unique relationships between parameters. The trans-dimensional aspect of the algorithm allows the number of layers to be a free parameter that is controlled by the data, where models with fewer layers are inherently favoured, which provides a natural measure of parsimony and a significant degree of flexibility in parametrization. The MCMC algorithm is used with synthetic examples to illustrate how the distribution of acceptable models is affected by the choice of prior information, the system geometry and configuration and the uncertainty in the measured system elevation. An airborne FDEM data set that was acquired for the purpose of hydrogeological characterization is also studied. The results compare favourably with traditional least-squares analysis, borehole resistivity and lithology logs from the site, and also provide new information about parameter uncertainty necessary for model assessment. ?? 2011. Geophysical Journal International ?? 2011 RAS.
Wang Kang Kang
2013-06-01
Full Text Available In this paper, our aim is to establish a class of Shannon-McMillan theorems for $m$th-order nonhomogeneous Markov information source on the generalized random selection system by constructing the consistent distribution functions. As corollaries, we obtain some Shannon-McMillan theorems for $m$th-order nonhomogeneous Markov information source and the general nonhomogeneous Markov information source. Some results which have been obtained are extended. In the proof, a new technique for studying Shannon-McMillan theorems in information theory is applied.
Theory of Distribution Estimation of Hyperparameters in Markov Random Field Models
Sakamoto, Hirotaka; Nakanishi-Ohno, Yoshinori; Okada, Masato
2016-06-01
We investigated the performance of distribution estimation of hyperparameters in Markov random field models proposed by Nakanishi-Ohno et al., http://doi.org/10.1088/1751-8113/47/4/045001" xlink:type="simple">J. Phys. A 47, 045001 (2014) when used to evaluate the confidence of data. We analytically calculated the configurational average, with respect to data, of the negative logarithm of the posterior distribution, which is called free energy based on an analogy with statistical mechanics. This configurational average of free energy shrinks as the amount of data increases. Our results theoretically confirm the numerical results from that previous study.
Statistical Shape Modelling and Markov Random Field Restoration (invited tutorial and exercise)
Hilger, Klaus Baggesen
This tutorial focuses on statistical shape analysis using point distribution models (PDM) which is widely used in modelling biological shape variability over a set of annotated training data. Furthermore, Active Shape Models (ASM) and Active Appearance Models (AAM) are based on PDMs and have proven...... themselves a generic holistic tool in various segmentation and simulation studies. Finding a basis of homologous points is a fundamental issue in PDMs which effects both alignment and decomposition of the training data, and may be aided by Markov Random Field Restoration (MRF) of the correspondence...
Colour and rotation invariant textural features based on Markov random fields
Vácha, Pavel; Haindl, Michal; Suk, Tomáš
2011-01-01
Roč. 32, č. 6 (2011), s. 771-779. ISSN 0167-8655 R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572; GA ČR GA102/08/0593 Grant ostatní: GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Image modelling * colour texture * Illumination invariance * Markov random field * rotation invariance Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information Impact factor: 1.034, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/RO/vacha-0357314.pdf
Bidirectional Texture Function Three Dimensional Pseudo Gaussian Markov Random Field Model
Havlíček, Michal
Praha : ČVUT v Praze, 2012, s. 53-62. ISBN 978-80-01-05138-2. [Doktorandské dny 2012. Praha (CZ), 16.11.2012-23.11.2012] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0593 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : bidirectional texture function * texture modelling Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2013/RO/havlicek-bidirectional texture function three dimensional pseudo gaussian markov random field model.pdf
Hierarchical Markov random-field modeling for texture classification in chest radiographs
Vargas-Voracek, Rene; Floyd, Carey E., Jr.; Nolte, Loren W.; McAdams, Page
1996-04-01
A hierarchical Markov random field (MRF) modeling approach is presented for the classification of textures in selected regions of interest (ROIs) of chest radiographs. The procedure integrates possible texture classes and their spatial definition with other components present in an image such as noise and background trend. Classification is performed as a maximum a-posteriori (MAP) estimation of texture class and involves an iterative Gibbs- sampling technique. Two cases are studied: classification of lung parenchyma versus bone and classification of normal lung parenchyma versus miliary tuberculosis (MTB). Accurate classification was obtained for all examined cases showing the potential of the proposed modeling approach for texture analysis of radiographic images.
Efficient Bayesian estimation of Markov model transition matrices with given stationary distribution
Trendelkamp-Schroer, Benjamin; Noé, Frank
2013-04-01
Direct simulation of biomolecular dynamics in thermal equilibrium is challenging due to the metastable nature of conformation dynamics and the computational cost of molecular dynamics. Biased or enhanced sampling methods may improve the convergence of expectation values of equilibrium probabilities and expectation values of stationary quantities significantly. Unfortunately the convergence of dynamic observables such as correlation functions or timescales of conformational transitions relies on direct equilibrium simulations. Markov state models are well suited to describe both stationary properties and properties of slow dynamical processes of a molecular system, in terms of a transition matrix for a jump process on a suitable discretization of continuous conformation space. Here, we introduce statistical estimation methods that allow a priori knowledge of equilibrium probabilities to be incorporated into the estimation of dynamical observables. Both maximum likelihood methods and an improved Monte Carlo sampling method for reversible transition matrices with fixed stationary distribution are given. The sampling approach is applied to a toy example as well as to simulations of the MR121-GSGS-W peptide, and is demonstrated to converge much more rapidly than a previous approach of Noé [J. Chem. Phys. 128, 244103 (2008), 10.1063/1.2916718].
William A Griffin
Full Text Available Sequential affect dynamics generated during the interaction of intimate dyads, such as married couples, are associated with a cascade of effects-some good and some bad-on each partner, close family members, and other social contacts. Although the effects are well documented, the probabilistic structures associated with micro-social processes connected to the varied outcomes remain enigmatic. Using extant data we developed a method of classifying and subsequently generating couple dynamics using a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden semi-Markov Model (HDP-HSMM. Our findings indicate that several key aspects of existing models of marital interaction are inadequate: affect state emissions and their durations, along with the expected variability differences between distressed and nondistressed couples are present but highly nuanced; and most surprisingly, heterogeneity among highly satisfied couples necessitate that they be divided into subgroups. We review how this unsupervised learning technique generates plausible dyadic sequences that are sensitive to relationship quality and provide a natural mechanism for computational models of behavioral and affective micro-social processes.
Griffin, William A; Li, Xun
2016-01-01
Sequential affect dynamics generated during the interaction of intimate dyads, such as married couples, are associated with a cascade of effects-some good and some bad-on each partner, close family members, and other social contacts. Although the effects are well documented, the probabilistic structures associated with micro-social processes connected to the varied outcomes remain enigmatic. Using extant data we developed a method of classifying and subsequently generating couple dynamics using a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden semi-Markov Model (HDP-HSMM). Our findings indicate that several key aspects of existing models of marital interaction are inadequate: affect state emissions and their durations, along with the expected variability differences between distressed and nondistressed couples are present but highly nuanced; and most surprisingly, heterogeneity among highly satisfied couples necessitate that they be divided into subgroups. We review how this unsupervised learning technique generates plausible dyadic sequences that are sensitive to relationship quality and provide a natural mechanism for computational models of behavioral and affective micro-social processes. PMID:27187319
Griffin, William A.; Li, Xun
2016-01-01
Sequential affect dynamics generated during the interaction of intimate dyads, such as married couples, are associated with a cascade of effects—some good and some bad—on each partner, close family members, and other social contacts. Although the effects are well documented, the probabilistic structures associated with micro-social processes connected to the varied outcomes remain enigmatic. Using extant data we developed a method of classifying and subsequently generating couple dynamics using a Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden semi-Markov Model (HDP-HSMM). Our findings indicate that several key aspects of existing models of marital interaction are inadequate: affect state emissions and their durations, along with the expected variability differences between distressed and nondistressed couples are present but highly nuanced; and most surprisingly, heterogeneity among highly satisfied couples necessitate that they be divided into subgroups. We review how this unsupervised learning technique generates plausible dyadic sequences that are sensitive to relationship quality and provide a natural mechanism for computational models of behavioral and affective micro-social processes. PMID:27187319
Wang, Kang-Ning; Sun, Zan-Dong; Dong, Ning
2015-12-01
Economic shale gas production requires hydraulic fracture stimulation to increase the formation permeability. Hydraulic fracturing strongly depends on geomechanical parameters such as Young's modulus and Poisson's ratio. Fracture-prone sweet spots can be predicted by prestack inversion, which is an ill-posed problem; thus, regularization is needed to obtain unique and stable solutions. To characterize gas-bearing shale sedimentary bodies, elastic parameter variations are regarded as an anisotropic Markov random field. Bayesian statistics are adopted for transforming prestack inversion to the maximum posterior probability. Two energy functions for the lateral and vertical directions are used to describe the distribution, and the expectation-maximization algorithm is used to estimate the hyperparameters of the prior probability of elastic parameters. Finally, the inversion yields clear geological boundaries, high vertical resolution, and reasonable lateral continuity using the conjugate gradient method to minimize the objective function. Antinoise and imaging ability of the method were tested using synthetic and real data.
A Markov random walk under constraint for discovering overlapping communities in complex networks
The detection of overlapping communities in complex networks has motivated recent research in relevant fields. Aiming to address this problem, we propose a Markov-dynamics-based algorithm, called UEOC, which means 'unfold and extract overlapping communities'. In UEOC, when identifying each natural community that overlaps, a Markov random walk method combined with a constraint strategy, which is based on the corresponding annealed network (degree conserving random network), is performed to unfold the community. Then, a cutoff criterion with the aid of a local community function, called conductance, which can be thought of as the ratio between the number of edges inside the community and those leaving it, is presented to extract this emerged community from the entire network. The UEOC algorithm depends on only one parameter whose value can be easily set, and it requires no prior knowledge of the hidden community structures. The proposed UEOC has been evaluated both on synthetic benchmarks and on some real-world networks, and has been compared with a set of competing algorithms. The experimental result has shown that UEOC is highly effective and efficient for discovering overlapping communities
Márcio das Chagas Moura
2008-08-01
Full Text Available In this work it is proposed a model for the assessment of availability measure of fault tolerant systems based on the integration of continuous time semi-Markov processes and Bayesian belief networks. This integration results in a hybrid stochastic model that is able to represent the dynamic characteristics of a system as well as to deal with cause-effect relationships among external factors such as environmental and operational conditions. The hybrid model also allows for uncertainty propagation on the system availability. It is also proposed a numerical procedure for the solution of the state probability equations of semi-Markov processes described in terms of transition rates. The numerical procedure is based on the application of Laplace transforms that are inverted by the Gauss quadrature method known as Gauss Legendre. The hybrid model and numerical procedure are illustrated by means of an example of application in the context of fault tolerant systems.Neste trabalho, é proposto um modelo baseado na integração entre processos semi-Markovianos e redes Bayesianas para avaliação da disponibilidade de sistemas tolerantes à falha. Esta integração resulta em um modelo estocástico híbrido o qual é capaz de representar as características dinâmicas de um sistema assim como tratar as relações de causa e efeito entre fatores externos tais como condições ambientais e operacionais. Além disso, o modelo híbrido permite avaliar a propagação de incerteza sobre a disponibilidade do sistema. É também proposto um procedimento numérico para a solução das equações de probabilidade de estado de processos semi-Markovianos descritos por taxas de transição. Tal procedimento numérico é baseado na aplicação de transformadas de Laplace que são invertidas pelo método de quadratura Gaussiana conhecido como Gauss Legendre. O modelo híbrido e procedimento numérico são ilustrados por meio de um exemplo de aplicação no contexto de
Entropy and long-range memory in random symbolic additive Markov chains
Melnik, S. S.; Usatenko, O. V.
2016-06-01
The goal of this paper is to develop an estimate for the entropy of random symbolic sequences with elements belonging to a finite alphabet. As a plausible model, we use the high-order additive stationary ergodic Markov chain with long-range memory. Supposing that the correlations between random elements of the chain are weak, we express the conditional entropy of the sequence by means of the symbolic pair correlation function. We also examine an algorithm for estimating the conditional entropy of finite symbolic sequences. We show that the entropy contains two contributions, i.e., the correlation and the fluctuation. The obtained analytical results are used for numerical evaluation of the entropy of written English texts and DNA nucleotide sequences. The developed theory opens the way for constructing a more consistent and sophisticated approach to describe the systems with strong short-range and weak long-range memory.
Nicoulaud-Gouin, V.; Giacalone, M.; Gonze, M.A. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire-PRP-ENV/SERIS/LM2E (France); Martin-Garin, A.; Garcia-Sanchez, L. [IRSN-PRP-ENV/SERIS/L2BT (France)
2014-07-01
Calibration of transfer models according to observation data is a challenge, especially if parameters uncertainty is required, and if competing models should be decided between them. Generally two main calibration methods are used: The frequentist approach in which the unknown parameter of interest is supposed fixed and its estimation is based on the data only. In this category, least squared method has many restrictions in nonlinear models and competing models need to be nested in order to be compared. The bayesian inference in which the unknown parameter of interest is supposed random and its estimation is based on the data and on prior information. Compared to frequentist method, it provides probability density functions and therefore pointwise estimation with credible intervals. However, in practical cases, Bayesian inference is a complex problem of numerical integration, which explains its low use in operational modeling including radioecology. This study aims to illustrate the interest and feasibility of Bayesian approach in radioecology particularly in the case of ordinary differential equations with non-constant coefficients models, which cover most radiological risk assessment models, notably those implemented in the Symbiose platform (Gonze et al, 2010). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method (Metropolis et al., 1953) was used because the posterior expectations are intractable integrals. The invariant distribution of the parameters was performed by the metropolis-Hasting algorithm (Hastings, 1970). GNU-MCSim software (Bois and Maszle, 2011) a bayesian hierarchical framework, was used to deal with nonlinear differential models. Two case studies including this type of model were investigated: An Equilibrium Kinetic sorption model (EK) (e.g. van Genuchten et al, 1974), with experimental data concerning {sup 137}Cs and {sup 85}Sr sorption and desorption in different soils studied in stirred flow-through reactors. This model, generalizing the K{sub d} approach
Calibration of transfer models according to observation data is a challenge, especially if parameters uncertainty is required, and if competing models should be decided between them. Generally two main calibration methods are used: The frequentist approach in which the unknown parameter of interest is supposed fixed and its estimation is based on the data only. In this category, least squared method has many restrictions in nonlinear models and competing models need to be nested in order to be compared. The bayesian inference in which the unknown parameter of interest is supposed random and its estimation is based on the data and on prior information. Compared to frequentist method, it provides probability density functions and therefore pointwise estimation with credible intervals. However, in practical cases, Bayesian inference is a complex problem of numerical integration, which explains its low use in operational modeling including radioecology. This study aims to illustrate the interest and feasibility of Bayesian approach in radioecology particularly in the case of ordinary differential equations with non-constant coefficients models, which cover most radiological risk assessment models, notably those implemented in the Symbiose platform (Gonze et al, 2010). Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method (Metropolis et al., 1953) was used because the posterior expectations are intractable integrals. The invariant distribution of the parameters was performed by the metropolis-Hasting algorithm (Hastings, 1970). GNU-MCSim software (Bois and Maszle, 2011) a bayesian hierarchical framework, was used to deal with nonlinear differential models. Two case studies including this type of model were investigated: An Equilibrium Kinetic sorption model (EK) (e.g. van Genuchten et al, 1974), with experimental data concerning 137Cs and 85Sr sorption and desorption in different soils studied in stirred flow-through reactors. This model, generalizing the Kd approach, distinguishes
Local Autoencoding for Parameter Estimation in a Hidden Potts-Markov Random Field.
Song, Sanming; Si, Bailu; Herrmann, J Michael; Feng, Xisheng
2016-05-01
A local-autoencoding (LAE) method is proposed for the parameter estimation in a Hidden Potts-Markov random field model. Due to sampling cost, Markov chain Monte Carlo methods are rarely used in real-time applications. Like other heuristic methods, LAE is based on a conditional independence assumption. It adapts, however, the parameters in a block-by-block style with a simple Hebbian learning rule. Experiments with given label fields show that the LAE is able to converge in far less time than required for a scan. It is also possible to derive an estimate for LAE based on a Cramer–Rao bound that is similar to the classical maximum pseudolikelihood method. As a general algorithm, LAE can be used to estimate the parameters in anisotropic label fields. Furthermore, LAE is not limited to the classical Potts model and can be applied to other types of Potts models by simple label field transformations and straightforward learning rule extensions. Experimental results on image segmentations demonstrate the efficiency and generality of the LAE algorithm. PMID:27019491
Multilayer Markov Random Field models for change detection in optical remote sensing images
Benedek, Csaba; Shadaydeh, Maha; Kato, Zoltan; Szirányi, Tamás; Zerubia, Josiane
2015-09-01
In this paper, we give a comparative study on three Multilayer Markov Random Field (MRF) based solutions proposed for change detection in optical remote sensing images, called Multicue MRF, Conditional Mixed Markov model, and Fusion MRF. Our purposes are twofold. On one hand, we highlight the significance of the focused model family and we set them against various state-of-the-art approaches through a thematic analysis and quantitative tests. We discuss the advantages and drawbacks of class comparison vs. direct approaches, usage of training data, various targeted application fields and different ways of Ground Truth generation, meantime informing the Reader in which roles the Multilayer MRFs can be efficiently applied. On the other hand we also emphasize the differences between the three focused models at various levels, considering the model structures, feature extraction, layer interpretation, change concept definition, parameter tuning and performance. We provide qualitative and quantitative comparison results using principally a publicly available change detection database which contains aerial image pairs and Ground Truth change masks. We conclude that the discussed models are competitive against alternative state-of-the-art solutions, if one uses them as pre-processing filters in multitemporal optical image analysis. In addition, they cover together a large range of applications, considering the different usage options of the three approaches.
Perlmutter, M.
1973-01-01
Molecular diffusion through a rarefied gas is analyzed by using the theory of Markov random walks. The Markov walk is simulated on the computer by using random numbers to find the new states from the appropriate transition probabilities. As the sample molecule during its random walk passes a scoring position, which is a location at which the macroscopic diffusing flow variables such as molecular flux and molecular density are desired, an appropriate payoff is scored. The payoff is a function of the sample molecule velocity. For example, in obtaining the molecular flux across a scoring position, the random walk payoff is the net number of times the scoring position has been crossed in the positive direction. Similarly, when the molecular density is required, the payoff is the sum of the inverse velocity of the sample molecule passing the scoring position. The macroscopic diffusing flow variables are then found from the expected payoff of the random walks.
Object-oriented image coding scheme based on DWT and Markov random field
Zheng, Lei; Wu, Hsien-Hsun S.; Liu, Jyh-Charn S.; Chan, Andrew K.
1998-12-01
In this paper, we introduce an object-oriented image coding algorithm to differentiate regions of interest (ROI) in visual communications. Our scheme is motivated by the fact that in visual communications, image contents (objects) are not equally important. For a given network bandwidth budget, one should give the highest transmission priority to the most interesting object, and serve the remaining ones at lower priorities. We propose a DWT based Multiresolution Markov Random Field technique to segment image objects according to their textures. We show that this technique can effectively distinguish visual objects and assign them different priorities. This scheme can be integrated with our ROI compression coder, the Generalized Self-Similarity Tress codex, for networking applications.
The mean field theory in EM procedures for blind Markov random field image restoration.
Zhang, J
1993-01-01
A Markov random field (MRF) model-based EM (expectation-maximization) procedure for simultaneously estimating the degradation model and restoring the image is described. The MRF is a coupled one which provides continuity (inside regions of smooth gray tones) and discontinuity (at region boundaries) constraints for the restoration problem which is, in general, ill posed. The computational difficulty associated with the EM procedure for MRFs is resolved by using the mean field theory from statistical mechanics. An orthonormal blur decomposition is used to reduce the chances of undesirable locally optimal estimates. Experimental results on synthetic and real-world images show that this approach provides good blur estimates and restored images. The restored images are comparable to those obtained by a Wiener filter in mean-square error, but are most visually pleasing. PMID:18296192
Texture Analysis of the Retinal Nerve Fiber Layer in Fundus Images via Markov Random Fields
Kolář, R.; Vácha, Pavel
Heidelberg : Springer, 2009 - (Dössel, O.; Schlegel, W.), s. 247-250 ISBN 978-3-642-03890-7. [World Congress on Medical Physics and Biomedical Engineering. Munich (DE), 07.11.2009-12.11.2009] R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572 Grant ostatní: GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : glaucoma * texture analysis * fundus image Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information http:// library .utia.cas.cz/separaty/2009/RO/vacha-texture%20analysis%20of%20the%20retinal%20nerve%20fiber%20layer%20in%20fundus%20images%20via%20markov%20random%20fields.pdf
A Markov Random Field Model-Based Approach to Natural Image Matting
Sheng-You Lin; Jiao-Ying Shi
2007-01-01
This paper proposes a Markov Random Field (MRF) model-based approach to natural image matting with complex scenes.After the trimap for matting is given manually, the unknown region is roughly segmented into several joint sub-regions.In each sub-region, we partition the colors of neighboring background or foreground pixels into several clusters in RGB color space and assign matting label to each unknown pixel.All the labels are modelled as an MRF and the matting problem is then formulated as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation problem.Simulated annealing is used to find the optimal MAP estimation.The better results can be obtained under the same user-interactions when images are complex.Results of natural image matting experiments performed on complex images using this approach are shown and compared in this paper.
Markov analysis of alpha-helical, beta-sheet and random coil regions of proteins
The rules up to now used to predict the spatial configuration of proteins from their primary structure are mostly based on the recurrence analysis of some doublets, triplets and so on of contiguous amino acids, but they do not take into account the correlation characteristics of the whole amino acid sequence. A statistical analysis of amino acid sequences for the alpha-helical, beta-sheet and random coil regions of about twenty proteins with known secondary structure by considering correlations effects has been carried out. The obtained results demonstrate that these sequences are at least a second-order Markov chain, i.e. they appear as if they were generated by a source that remembers at least the two aminoacids before the one being generated and that these two previous symbols influence the present choice
Face Association for Videos Using Conditional Random Fields and Max-Margin Markov Networks.
Du, Ming; Chellappa, Rama
2016-09-01
We address the video-based face association problem, in which one attempts to extract the face tracks of multiple subjects while maintaining label consistency. Traditional tracking algorithms have difficulty in handling this task, especially when challenging nuisance factors like motion blur, low resolution or significant camera motions are present. We demonstrate that contextual features, in addition to face appearance itself, play an important role in this case. We propose principled methods to combine multiple features using Conditional Random Fields and Max-Margin Markov networks to infer labels for the detected faces. Different from many existing approaches, our algorithms work in online mode and hence have a wider range of applications. We address issues such as parameter learning, inference and handling false positves/negatives that arise in the proposed approach. Finally, we evaluate our approach on several public databases. PMID:26552075
Hidaka, Shohei
2015-01-01
A Markov process, which is constructed recursively, arises in stochastic games with Markov strategies. In this study, we defined a special class of random processes called the recursive Markov process, which has infinitely many states but can be expressed in a closed form. We derive the characteristic equation which the marginal stationary distribution of an arbitrary recursive Markov process needs to satisfy.
Sparsity has become a key concept for solving of high-dimensional inverse problems using variational regularization techniques. Recently, using similar sparsity-constraints in the Bayesian framework for inverse problems by encoding them in the prior distribution has attracted attention. Important questions about the relation between regularization theory and Bayesian inference still need to be addressed when using sparsity promoting inversion. A practical obstacle for these examinations is the lack of fast posterior sampling algorithms for sparse, high-dimensional Bayesian inversion. Accessing the full range of Bayesian inference methods requires being able to draw samples from the posterior probability distribution in a fast and efficient way. This is usually done using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling algorithms. In this paper, we develop and examine a new implementation of a single component Gibbs MCMC sampler for sparse priors relying on L1-norms. We demonstrate that the efficiency of our Gibbs sampler increases when the level of sparsity or the dimension of the unknowns is increased. This property is contrary to the properties of the most commonly applied Metropolis–Hastings (MH) sampling schemes. We demonstrate that the efficiency of MH schemes for L1-type priors dramatically decreases when the level of sparsity or the dimension of the unknowns is increased. Practically, Bayesian inversion for L1-type priors using MH samplers is not feasible at all. As this is commonly believed to be an intrinsic feature of MCMC sampling, the performance of our Gibbs sampler also challenges common beliefs about the applicability of sample based Bayesian inference. (paper)
Infinite Structured Hidden Semi-Markov Models
Huggins, Jonathan H.; Wood, Frank
2014-01-01
This paper reviews recent advances in Bayesian nonparametric techniques for constructing and performing inference in infinite hidden Markov models. We focus on variants of Bayesian nonparametric hidden Markov models that enhance a posteriori state-persistence in particular. This paper also introduces a new Bayesian nonparametric framework for generating left-to-right and other structured, explicit-duration infinite hidden Markov models that we call the infinite structured hidden semi-Markov m...
A recursive model-reduction method for approximate inference in Gaussian Markov random fields.
Johnson, Jason K; Willsky, Alan S
2008-01-01
This paper presents recursive cavity modeling--a principled, tractable approach to approximate, near-optimal inference for large Gauss-Markov random fields. The main idea is to subdivide the random field into smaller subfields, constructing cavity models which approximate these subfields. Each cavity model is a concise, yet faithful, model for the surface of one subfield sufficient for near-optimal inference in adjacent subfields. This basic idea leads to a tree-structured algorithm which recursively builds a hierarchy of cavity models during an "upward pass" and then builds a complementary set of blanket models during a reverse "downward pass." The marginal statistics of individual variables can then be approximated using their blanket models. Model thinning plays an important role, allowing us to develop thinned cavity and blanket models thereby providing tractable approximate inference. We develop a maximum-entropy approach that exploits certain tractable representations of Fisher information on thin chordal graphs. Given the resulting set of thinned cavity models, we also develop a fast preconditioner, which provides a simple iterative method to compute optimal estimates. Thus, our overall approach combines recursive inference, variational learning and iterative estimation. We demonstrate the accuracy and scalability of this approach in several challenging, large-scale remote sensing problems. PMID:18229805
Espinoza-Molina, Daniela; Datcu, Mihai
2010-10-01
TerraSAR-X is the Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) German satellite which provides a high diversity of information due to its high-resolution. TerraSAR-X acquires daily a volume of up to 100 GB of high complexity, multi-mode SAR images, i.e. SpotLight, StripMap, and ScanSAR data, with dual or quad-polarization, and with different look angles. The high and multiple resolutions of the instrument (1m, 3m or 10m) open perspectives for new applications, that were not possible with past lower resolution sensors (20-30m). Mainly the 1m and 3m modes we expect to support a broad range of new applications related to human activities with relevant structures and objects at the 1m scale. Thus, among the most interesting scenes are: urban, industrial, and rural data. In addition, the global coverage and the relatively frequent repeat pass will definitely help to acquire extremely relevant data sets. To analyze the available TerrrSAR-X data we rely on model based methods for feature extraction and despeckling. The image information content is extracted using model-based methods based on Gauss Markov Random Field (GMRF) and Bayesian inference approach. This approach enhances the local adaptation by using a prior model, which learns the image structure and enables to estimate the local description of the structures, acting as primitive feature extraction method. However, the GMRF model-based method uses as input parameters the Model Order (MO) and the size of Estimation Window (EW). The appropriated selection of these parameters allows us to improve the classification and indexing results due to the number of well separated classes could be determined by them. Our belief is that the selection of the MO depends on the kind of information that the image contains, explaining how well the model can recognize complex structures as objects, and according to the size of EW the accuracy of the estimation is determined. In the following, we present an evaluation of the impact of the model
Recognition of 3-D objects based on Markov random field models
HUANG Ying; DING Xiao-qing; WANG Sheng-jin
2006-01-01
The recognition of 3-D objects is quite a difficult task for computer vision systems.This paper presents a new object framework,which utilizes densely sampled grids with different resolutions to represent the local information of the input image.A Markov random field model is then created to model the geometric distribution of the object key nodes.Flexible matching,which aims to find the accurate correspondence map between the key points of two images,is performed by combining the local similarities and the geometric relations together using the highest confidence first method.Afterwards,a global similarity is calculated for object recognition. Experimental results on Coil-100 object database,which consists of 7 200 images of 100 objects,are presented.When the numbers of templates vary from 4,8,18 to 36 for each object,and the remaining images compose the test sets,the object recognition rates are 95.75 %,99.30 %,100.0 % and 100.0 %,respectively.The excellent recognition performance is much better than those of the other cited references,which indicates that our approach is well-suited for appearance-based object recognition.
A Markov Random Field Model-Based Approach To Image Interpretation
Zhang, Jun; Modestino, James W.
1989-11-01
In this paper, a Markov random field (MRF) model-based approach to automated image interpretation is described and demonstrated as a region-based scheme. In this approach, an image is first segmented into a collection of disjoint regions which form the nodes of an adjacency graph. Image interpretation is then achieved through assigning object labels, or interpretations, to the segmented regions, or nodes, using domain knowledge, extracted feature measurements and spatial relationships between the various regions. The interpretation labels are modeled as a MRF on the corresponding adjacency graph and the image interpretation problem is formulated as a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation rule. Simulated annealing is used to find the best realization, or optimal MAP interpretation. Through the MRF model, this approach also provides a systematic method for organizing and representing domain knowledge through the clique functions of the pdf of the underlying MRF. Results of image interpretation experiments performed on synthetic and real-world images using this approach are described and appear promising.
Batool, Nazre; Chellappa, Rama
2014-09-01
Facial retouching is widely used in media and entertainment industry. Professional software usually require a minimum level of user expertise to achieve the desirable results. In this paper, we present an algorithm to detect facial wrinkles/imperfection. We believe that any such algorithm would be amenable to facial retouching applications. The detection of wrinkles/imperfections can allow these skin features to be processed differently than the surrounding skin without much user interaction. For detection, Gabor filter responses along with texture orientation field are used as image features. A bimodal Gaussian mixture model (GMM) represents distributions of Gabor features of normal skin versus skin imperfections. Then, a Markov random field model is used to incorporate the spatial relationships among neighboring pixels for their GMM distributions and texture orientations. An expectation-maximization algorithm then classifies skin versus skin wrinkles/imperfections. Once detected automatically, wrinkles/imperfections are removed completely instead of being blended or blurred. We propose an exemplar-based constrained texture synthesis algorithm to inpaint irregularly shaped gaps left by the removal of detected wrinkles/imperfections. We present results conducted on images downloaded from the Internet to show the efficacy of our algorithms. PMID:24968171
Medical image retrieval and analysis by Markov random fields and multi-scale fractal dimension.
Backes, André Ricardo; Gerhardinger, Leandro Cavaleri; Batista Neto, João do Espírito Santo; Bruno, Odemir Martinez
2015-02-01
Many Content-based Image Retrieval (CBIR) systems and image analysis tools employ color, shape and texture (in a combined fashion or not) as attributes, or signatures, to retrieve images from databases or to perform image analysis in general. Among these attributes, texture has turned out to be the most relevant, as it allows the identification of a larger number of images of a different nature. This paper introduces a novel signature which can be used for image analysis and retrieval. It combines texture with complexity extracted from objects within the images. The approach consists of a texture segmentation step, modeled as a Markov Random Field process, followed by the estimation of the complexity of each computed region. The complexity is given by a Multi-scale Fractal Dimension. Experiments have been conducted using an MRI database in both pattern recognition and image retrieval contexts. The results show the accuracy of the proposed method in comparison with other traditional texture descriptors and also indicate how the performance changes as the level of complexity is altered. PMID:25586375
A Joint Land Cover Mapping and Image Registration Algorithm Based on a Markov Random Field Model
Apisit Eiumnoh
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Traditionally, image registration of multi-modal and multi-temporal images is performed satisfactorily before land cover mapping. However, since multi-modal and multi-temporal images are likely to be obtained from different satellite platforms and/or acquired at different times, perfect alignment is very difficult to achieve. As a result, a proper land cover mapping algorithm must be able to correct registration errors as well as perform an accurate classification. In this paper, we propose a joint classification and registration technique based on a Markov random field (MRF model to simultaneously align two or more images and obtain a land cover map (LCM of the scene. The expectation maximization (EM algorithm is employed to solve the joint image classification and registration problem by iteratively estimating the map parameters and approximate posterior probabilities. Then, the maximum a posteriori (MAP criterion is used to produce an optimum land cover map. We conducted experiments on a set of four simulated images and one pair of remotely sensed images to investigate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed algorithm. Our results show that, with proper selection of a critical MRF parameter, the resulting LCMs derived from an unregistered image pair can achieve an accuracy that is as high as when images are perfectly aligned. Furthermore, the registration error can be greatly reduced.
Automatic Lung Tumor Segmentation on PET/CT Images Using Fuzzy Markov Random Field Model
Yu Guo
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The combination of positron emission tomography (PET and CT images provides complementary functional and anatomical information of human tissues and it has been used for better tumor volume definition of lung cancer. This paper proposed a robust method for automatic lung tumor segmentation on PET/CT images. The new method is based on fuzzy Markov random field (MRF model. The combination of PET and CT image information is achieved by using a proper joint posterior probability distribution of observed features in the fuzzy MRF model which performs better than the commonly used Gaussian joint distribution. In this study, the PET and CT simulation images of 7 non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC patients were used to evaluate the proposed method. Tumor segmentations with the proposed method and manual method by an experienced radiation oncologist on the fused images were performed, respectively. Segmentation results obtained with the two methods were similar and Dice’s similarity coefficient (DSC was 0.85 ± 0.013. It has been shown that effective and automatic segmentations can be achieved with this method for lung tumors which locate near other organs with similar intensities in PET and CT images, such as when the tumors extend into chest wall or mediastinum.
Medical image retrieval and analysis by Markov random fields and multi-scale fractal dimension
Many Content-based Image Retrieval (CBIR) systems and image analysis tools employ color, shape and texture (in a combined fashion or not) as attributes, or signatures, to retrieve images from databases or to perform image analysis in general. Among these attributes, texture has turned out to be the most relevant, as it allows the identification of a larger number of images of a different nature. This paper introduces a novel signature which can be used for image analysis and retrieval. It combines texture with complexity extracted from objects within the images. The approach consists of a texture segmentation step, modeled as a Markov Random Field process, followed by the estimation of the complexity of each computed region. The complexity is given by a Multi-scale Fractal Dimension. Experiments have been conducted using an MRI database in both pattern recognition and image retrieval contexts. The results show the accuracy of the proposed method in comparison with other traditional texture descriptors and also indicate how the performance changes as the level of complexity is altered. (paper)
Medical image retrieval and analysis by Markov random fields and multi-scale fractal dimension
Backes, André Ricardo; Cavaleri Gerhardinger, Leandro; do Espírito Santo Batista Neto, João; Martinez Bruno, Odemir
2015-02-01
Many Content-based Image Retrieval (CBIR) systems and image analysis tools employ color, shape and texture (in a combined fashion or not) as attributes, or signatures, to retrieve images from databases or to perform image analysis in general. Among these attributes, texture has turned out to be the most relevant, as it allows the identification of a larger number of images of a different nature. This paper introduces a novel signature which can be used for image analysis and retrieval. It combines texture with complexity extracted from objects within the images. The approach consists of a texture segmentation step, modeled as a Markov Random Field process, followed by the estimation of the complexity of each computed region. The complexity is given by a Multi-scale Fractal Dimension. Experiments have been conducted using an MRI database in both pattern recognition and image retrieval contexts. The results show the accuracy of the proposed method in comparison with other traditional texture descriptors and also indicate how the performance changes as the level of complexity is altered.
MEDICAL IMAGE SEGMENTATION ON A CLUSTER OF PCS USING MARKOV RANDOM FIELDS
El-Hachemi Guerrout
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Medical imaging applications produce large sets of similar images. The huge amount of data makes the manual analysis and interpretation a fastidious task. Medical image segmentation is thus an important process in image processing used to partition the images into different regions (e.g. gray matter(GM, white matter(WM and cerebrospinal fluid(CSF. Hidden Markov Random Field (HMRF Model and Gibbs distributions provide powerful tools for image modeling. In this paper, we use a HMRF model to perform segmentation of volumetric medical images. We have a problem with incomplete data. We seek the segmented images according to the MAP (Maximum A Posteriori criterion. MAP estimation leads to the minimization of an energy function. This problem is computationally intractable. Therefore, optimizations techniques are used to compute a solution. We will evaluate the segmentation upon two major factors: the time of calculation and the quality of segmentation. Processing time is reduced by distributing the computation of segmentation on a powerful and inexpensive architecture that consists of a cluster of personal computers. Parallel programming was done by using the standard MPI (Message Passing Interface.
Gelman, Andrew; Stern, Hal S; Dunson, David B; Vehtari, Aki; Rubin, Donald B
2013-01-01
FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN INFERENCEProbability and InferenceSingle-Parameter Models Introduction to Multiparameter Models Asymptotics and Connections to Non-Bayesian ApproachesHierarchical ModelsFUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSISModel Checking Evaluating, Comparing, and Expanding ModelsModeling Accounting for Data Collection Decision AnalysisADVANCED COMPUTATION Introduction to Bayesian Computation Basics of Markov Chain Simulation Computationally Efficient Markov Chain Simulation Modal and Distributional ApproximationsREGRESSION MODELS Introduction to Regression Models Hierarchical Linear
Analysis and Validation of Grid dem Generation Based on Gaussian Markov Random Field
Aguilar, F. J.; Aguilar, M. A.; Blanco, J. L.; Nemmaoui, A.; García Lorca, A. M.
2016-06-01
Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are considered as one of the most relevant geospatial data to carry out land-cover and land-use classification. This work deals with the application of a mathematical framework based on a Gaussian Markov Random Field (GMRF) to interpolate grid DEMs from scattered elevation data. The performance of the GMRF interpolation model was tested on a set of LiDAR data (0.87 points/m2) provided by the Spanish Government (PNOA Programme) over a complex working area mainly covered by greenhouses in Almería, Spain. The original LiDAR data was decimated by randomly removing different fractions of the original points (from 10% to up to 99% of points removed). In every case, the remaining points (scattered observed points) were used to obtain a 1 m grid spacing GMRF-interpolated Digital Surface Model (DSM) whose accuracy was assessed by means of the set of previously extracted checkpoints. The GMRF accuracy results were compared with those provided by the widely known Triangulation with Linear Interpolation (TLI). Finally, the GMRF method was applied to a real-world case consisting of filling the LiDAR-derived DSM gaps after manually filtering out non-ground points to obtain a Digital Terrain Model (DTM). Regarding accuracy, both GMRF and TLI produced visually pleasing and similar results in terms of vertical accuracy. As an added bonus, the GMRF mathematical framework makes possible to both retrieve the estimated uncertainty for every interpolated elevation point (the DEM uncertainty) and include break lines or terrain discontinuities between adjacent cells to produce higher quality DTMs.
Scholer, Marie; Irving, James; Zibar, Majken Caroline Looms;
2012-01-01
-chain-Monte-Carlo inversion approach with different priors. The ground-penetrating radar (GPR) geophysical method has the potential to provide valuable information on the hydraulic properties of the vadose zone because of its strong sensitivity to soil water content. In particular, recent evidence has suggested that the......We examined to what extent time-lapse crosshole ground-penetrating radar traveltimes, measured during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arreneas field site in Denmark, could help to quantify vadose zone hydraulic properties and their corresponding uncertainties using a Bayesian Markov......-state infiltration conditions, which represent only a small fraction of practically relevant scenarios. We explored in detail the dynamic infiltration case, specifically examining to what extent time-lapse crosshole GPR traveltimes, measured during a forced infiltration experiment at the Arreneas field site in...
Kevin McNally
2012-01-01
Full Text Available There are numerous biomonitoring programs, both recent and ongoing, to evaluate environmental exposure of humans to chemicals. Due to the lack of exposure and kinetic data, the correlation of biomarker levels with exposure concentrations leads to difficulty in utilizing biomonitoring data for biological guidance values. Exposure reconstruction or reverse dosimetry is the retrospective interpretation of external exposure consistent with biomonitoring data. We investigated the integration of physiologically based pharmacokinetic modelling, global sensitivity analysis, Bayesian inference, and Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation to obtain a population estimate of inhalation exposure to m-xylene. We used exhaled breath and venous blood m-xylene and urinary 3-methylhippuric acid measurements from a controlled human volunteer study in order to evaluate the ability of our computational framework to predict known inhalation exposures. We also investigated the importance of model structure and dimensionality with respect to its ability to reconstruct exposure.
Expressing Bayesian Fusion as a Product of Distributions: Application to Randomized Hough Transform
Pradalier, Cédric; Colas, Francis; Bessière, Pierre
2004-04-01
Data fusion is a common issue of mobile robotics, computer assisted medical diagnosis or behavioral control of simulated character for instance. However data sources are often noisy, opinion for experts are not known with absolute precision, and motor commands do not act in the same exact manner on the environment. In these cases, classic logic fails to manage efficiently the fusion process. Confronting different knowledge in an uncertain environment can therefore be adequately formalized in the bayesian framework. Besides, bayesian fusion can be expensive in terms of memory usage and processing time. This paper precisely aims at expressing any bayesian fusion process as a product of probability distributions in order to reduce its complexity. We first study both direct and inverse fusion schemes. We show that contrary to direct models, inverse local models need a specific prior in order to allow the fusion to be computed as a product. We therefore propose to add a consistency variable to each local model and we show that these additional variables allow the use of a product of the local distributions in order to compute the global probability distribution over the fused variable. Finally, we take the example of the Randomized Hough Transform. We rewrite it in the bayesian framework, considering that it is a fusion process to extract lines from couples of dots in a picture. As expected, we can find back the expression of the Randomized Hough Transform from the literature with the appropriate assumptions.
A Hypergraph-Based Reduction for Higher-Order Binary Markov Random Fields.
Fix, Alexander; Gruber, Aritanan; Boros, Endre; Zabih, Ramin
2015-07-01
Higher-order Markov Random Fields, which can capture important properties of natural images, have become increasingly important in computer vision. While graph cuts work well for first-order MRF's, until recently they have rarely been effective for higher-order MRF's. Ishikawa's graph cut technique [1], [2] shows great promise for many higher-order MRF's. His method transforms an arbitrary higher-order MRF with binary labels into a first-order one with the same minima. If all the terms are submodular the exact solution can be easily found; otherwise, pseudoboolean optimization techniques can produce an optimal labeling for a subset of the variables. We present a new transformation with better performance than [1], [2], both theoretically and experimentally. While [1], [2] transforms each higher-order term independently, we use the underlying hypergraph structure of the MRF to transform a group of terms at once. For n binary variables, each of which appears in terms with k other variables, at worst we produce n non-submodular terms, while [1], [2] produces O(nk). We identify a local completeness property under which our method perform even better, and show that under certain assumptions several important vision problems (including common variants of fusion moves) have this property. We show experimentally that our method produces smaller weight of non-submodular edges, and that this metric is directly related to the effectiveness of QPBO [3]. Running on the same field of experts dataset used in [1], [2] we optimally label significantly more variables (96 versus 80 percent) and converge more rapidly to a lower energy. Preliminary experiments suggest that some other higher-order MRF's used in stereo [4] and segmentation [5] are also locally complete and would thus benefit from our work. PMID:26352447
IMPROVING MARKOV RANDOM FIELD BASED SUPER RESOLUTION MAPPING THROUGH FUZZY PARAMETER INTEGRATION
D. R . Welikanna
2012-07-01
Full Text Available The objective of this study was to improve the Markov Random Field (MRF based Super Resolution Mapping (SRM technique to account for the vague land-cover interpretations (class mixture and the intermediate conditions in an urban area. The algorithm has been improved to integrate the fuzzy mean and fuzzy covariance measurements, to a MRF based SRM scheme to optimize the classification results. The technique was tested on a WORLDVIEW-2 data set, acquired over a highway construction area, in Colombo, Sri Lanka. Based on the visual interpretation of the image, three major land-cover types of this area were identified for the study; those were vegetation, soil and exposed grass and impervious surface with low medium and high albedo. The membership values for each pixel were determined from training samples through Spectral Angle Mapper (SAM technique. The compulsory fuzzy mean and the covariance measurements were derived using these membership grades, and subsequently was applied in MRF based SRM technique. The primary reference data was generated using Maximum Likelihood Classification (MLC performed on the same data which was resampled to 1m resolution. The scale factor was set to be (S = 2, to generate SRM of 1m resolution. The smoothening parameter (λ which balances the prior and likelihood energy terms were tested in the range from 0.3 to 0.9. SRM were generated using fuzzy MRF and the conventional MRF models respectively. Results suggest that the fuzzy integrated model has improved the results with an overall accuracy of 85.60% and kappa value of 0.78 between the optimal results and the reference data, while in the conventional case it was 77.81% of overall accuracy with kappa being 0.65. Among the two MRF models, fuzzy parameter integrated model shows the highest agreement with class fractions from the reference image with a smallest average _MAE (MAE, Mean Absolute Error of 0.03.
Braak, ter C.J.F.
2006-01-01
Differential Evolution (DE) is a simple genetic algorithm for numerical optimization in real parameter spaces. In a statistical context one would not just want the optimum but also its uncertainty. The uncertainty distribution can be obtained by a Bayesian analysis (after specifying prior and likeli
Hongqiang Liu
2016-06-01
Full Text Available A Bayesian random effects modeling approach was used to examine the influence of neighborhood characteristics on burglary risks in Jianghan District, Wuhan, China. This random effects model is essentially spatial; a spatially structured random effects term and an unstructured random effects term are added to the traditional non-spatial Poisson regression model. Based on social disorganization and routine activity theories, five covariates extracted from the available data at the neighborhood level were used in the modeling. Three regression models were fitted and compared by the deviance information criterion to identify which model best fit our data. A comparison of the results from the three models indicates that the Bayesian random effects model is superior to the non-spatial models in fitting the data and estimating regression coefficients. Our results also show that neighborhoods with above average bar density and department store density have higher burglary risks. Neighborhood-specific burglary risks and posterior probabilities of neighborhoods having a burglary risk greater than 1.0 were mapped, indicating the neighborhoods that should warrant more attention and be prioritized for crime intervention and reduction. Implications and limitations of the study are discussed in our concluding section.
Waldmann, Patrik; Hallander, Jon; Hoti, Fabian; Sillanpää, Mikko J.
2008-01-01
Accurate and fast computation of quantitative genetic variance parameters is of great importance in both natural and breeding populations. For experimental designs with complex relationship structures it can be important to include both additive and dominance variance components in the statistical model. In this study, we introduce a Bayesian Gibbs sampling approach for estimation of additive and dominance genetic variances in the traditional infinitesimal model. The method can handle general...
Daniels, Noah M.; Hosur, Raghavendra; Berger, Bonnie; Lenore J Cowen
2012-01-01
Motivation: One of the most successful methods to date for recognizing protein sequences that are evolutionarily related has been profile hidden Markov models (HMMs). However, these models do not capture pairwise statistical preferences of residues that are hydrogen bonded in beta sheets. These dependencies have been partially captured in the HMM setting by simulated evolution in the training phase and can be fully captured by Markov random fields (MRFs). However, the MRFs can be computationa...
An Inhomogeneous Bayesian Texture Model for Spatially Varying Parameter Estimation
Dharmagunawardhana, Chathurika; Mahmoodi, Sasan; Bennett, Michael; Niranjan, Mahesan
2014-01-01
In statistical model based texture feature extraction, features based on spatially varying parameters achieve higher discriminative performances compared to spatially constant parameters. In this paper we formulate a novel Bayesian framework which achieves texture characterization by spatially varying parameters based on Gaussian Markov random fields. The parameter estimation is carried out by Metropolis-Hastings algorithm. The distributions of estimated spatially varying paramete...
Metastates in Mean-Field Models with Random External Fields Generated by Markov Chains
Formentin, M.; Külske, C.; Reichenbachs, A.
2012-01-01
We extend the construction by Külske and Iacobelli of metastates in finite-state mean-field models in independent disorder to situations where the local disorder terms are a sample of an external ergodic Markov chain in equilibrium. We show that for non-degenerate Markov chains, the structure of the theorems is analogous to the case of i.i.d. variables when the limiting weights in the metastate are expressed with the aid of a CLT for the occupation time measure of the chain. As a new phenomenon we also show in a Potts example that for a degenerate non-reversible chain this CLT approximation is not enough, and that the metastate can have less symmetry than the symmetry of the interaction and a Gaussian approximation of disorder fluctuations would suggest.
Metastates in Markov chain-driven random mean-field models
Formentin, M; Reichenbachs, A
2011-01-01
We extend the construction by Kuelske and Iacobelli of metastates in finite-state mean-field models in independent disorder to situations where the local disorder terms are realization of an external ergodic Markov chain in equilibrium. We show that for non-degenerate Markov chains, the structure of the theorems is analogous to the case of i.i.d. variables when the limiting weights in the metastate are expressed with the aid of a CLT for the occupation time measure of the chain. As a new phenomenon we also show in a Potts example that, for a degenerate non-reversible chain this CLT approximation is not enough and the metastate can have less symmetry than the symmetry of the interaction and a Gaussian approximation of disorder fluctuations would suggest.
Continuous Time Markov Networks
El-Hay, Tal; Friedman, Nir; Koller, Daphne; Kupferman, Raz
2012-01-01
A central task in many applications is reasoning about processes that change in a continuous time. The mathematical framework of Continuous Time Markov Processes provides the basic foundations for modeling such systems. Recently, Nodelman et al introduced continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs), which allow a compact representation of continuous-time processes over a factored state space. In this paper, we introduce continuous time Markov networks (CTMNs), an alternative representation lang...
Feng Ding
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In order to detect the obstacle from the large amount of 3D LIDAR data in hybrid cross-country environment for unmanned ground vehicle, a new graph approach based on Markov random field was presented. Firstly, the preprocessing method based on the maximum blurred line is applied to segment the projection of every laser scan line in x-y plane. Then, based on K-means clustering algorithm, the same properties of the line are combined. Secondly, line segment nodes are precisely positioned by using corner detection method, and the next step is to take advantage of line segment nodes to build an undirected graph for Markov random field. Lastly, the energy function is calculated by means of analyzing line segment features and solved by graph cut. Two types of line mark are finally classified into two categories: ground and obstacle. Experiments prove the feasibility of the approach and show that it has better performance and runs in real time.
Yanzi Wang
2016-01-01
Full Text Available Over the last few years; issues regarding the use of hybrid energy storage systems (HESSs in hybrid electric vehicles have been highlighted by the industry and in academic fields. This paper proposes a fuzzy-logic power management strategy based on Markov random prediction for an active parallel battery-UC HESS. The proposed power management strategy; the inputs for which are the vehicle speed; the current electric power demand and the predicted electric power demand; is used to distribute the electrical power between the battery bank and the UC bank. In this way; the battery bank power is limited to a certain range; and the peak and average charge/discharge power of the battery bank and overall loss incurred by the whole HESS are also reduced. Simulations and scaled-down experimental platforms are constructed to verify the proposed power management strategy. The simulations and experimental results demonstrate the advantages; feasibility and effectiveness of the fuzzy-logic power management strategy based on Markov random prediction.
Inferring activities from context measurements using Bayesian inference and random utility models
Hurtubia, Ricardo; Bierlaire, Michel; Flötteröd, Gunnar
2009-01-01
Smartphones collect a wealth of information about their users. This includes GPS tracks and the MAC addresses of devices around the user, and it can go as far as taking visual and acoustic samples of the user's environment. We present a framework to identify a smartphone user's activities in a Bayesian setting. As prior information, we us a random utility model that accounts for the type of activity a user is likely to perform at any given location and time; this model was estimated for the w...
Microwave imaging from experimental data within a Bayesian framework with realistic random noise
Eyraud, C.; Litman, A.; Hérique, A.; Kofman, W.
2009-02-01
This paper deals with the reconstruction of three-dimensional targets from experimental multiple-frequency data measured in the anechoic chamber of the Institut Fresnel (Marseille, France). An inverse iterative scheme is implemented with an adequate choice of the cost functional. Indeed, a Bayesian approach is considered in order to take into account the random noise which is present in the experiment. This leads to the definition of an adequate cost functional, where the weighting coefficients are changing with the frequency, the incidence angle and the receiving angle. The inversion scheme turns out to be more robust and accurate.
Microwave imaging from experimental data within a Bayesian framework with realistic random noise
This paper deals with the reconstruction of three-dimensional targets from experimental multiple-frequency data measured in the anechoic chamber of the Institut Fresnel (Marseille, France). An inverse iterative scheme is implemented with an adequate choice of the cost functional. Indeed, a Bayesian approach is considered in order to take into account the random noise which is present in the experiment. This leads to the definition of an adequate cost functional, where the weighting coefficients are changing with the frequency, the incidence angle and the receiving angle. The inversion scheme turns out to be more robust and accurate
Dynkin, E B
1960-01-01
Theory of Markov Processes provides information pertinent to the logical foundations of the theory of Markov random processes. This book discusses the properties of the trajectories of Markov processes and their infinitesimal operators.Organized into six chapters, this book begins with an overview of the necessary concepts and theorems from measure theory. This text then provides a general definition of Markov process and investigates the operations that make possible an inspection of the class of Markov processes corresponding to a given transition function. Other chapters consider the more c
Rocha, G; Górski, K M; Huffenberger, K M; Lawrence, C R; Lange, A E
2009-01-01
We introduce a new method to propagate uncertainties in the beam shapes used to measure the cosmic microwave background to cosmological parameters determined from those measurements. The method, which we call Markov Chain Beam Randomization, MCBR, randomly samples from a set of templates or functions that describe the beam uncertainties. The method is much faster than direct numerical integration over systematic `nuisance' parameters, and is not restricted to simple, idealized cases as is analytic marginalization. It does not assume the data are normally distributed, and does not require Gaussian priors on the specific systematic uncertainties. We show that MCBR properly accounts for and provides the marginalized errors of the parameters. The method can be generalized and used to propagate any systematic uncertainties for which a set of templates is available. We apply the method to the Planck satellite, and consider future experiments. Beam measurement errors should have a small effect on cosmological parame...
Alex Avilés
2016-01-01
Full Text Available The scarcity of water resources in mountain areas can distort normal water application patterns with among other effects, a negative impact on water supply and river ecosystems. Knowing the probability of droughts might help to optimize a priori the planning and management of the water resources in general and of the Andean watersheds in particular. This study compares Markov chain- (MC and Bayesian network- (BN based models in drought forecasting using a recently developed drought index with respect to their capability to characterize different drought severity states. The copula functions were used to solve the BNs and the ranked probability skill score (RPSS to evaluate the performance of the models. Monthly rainfall and streamflow data of the Chulco River basin, located in Southern Ecuador, were used to assess the performance of both approaches. Global evaluation results revealed that the MC-based models predict better wet and dry periods, and BN-based models generate slightly more accurately forecasts of the most severe droughts. However, evaluation of monthly results reveals that, for each month of the hydrological year, either the MC- or BN-based model provides better forecasts. The presented approach could be of assistance to water managers to ensure that timely decision-making on drought response is undertaken.
Kanagi Kanapathy
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The research question is whether the positive relationship found between supplier involvement practices and new product development performances in developed economies also holds in emerging economies. The role of supplier involvement practices in new product development performance is yet to be substantially investigated in the emerging economies (other than China. This premise was examined by distributing a survey instrument (Jayaram’s (2008 published survey instrument that has been utilised in developed economies to Malaysian manufacturing companies. To gauge the relationship between the supplier involvement practices and new product development (NPD project performance of 146 companies, structural equation modelling was adopted. Our findings prove that supplier involvement practices have a significant positive impact on NPD project performance in an emerging economy with respect to quality objectives, design objectives, cost objectives, and “time-to-market” objectives. Further analysis using the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm, yielding a more credible and feasible differentiation, confirmed these results (even in the case of an emerging economy and indicated that these practices have a 28% impact on variance of NPD project performance. This considerable effect implies that supplier involvement is a must have, although further research is needed to identify the contingencies for its practices.
Chen, J.; Hoversten, G.M.
2011-09-15
Joint inversion of seismic AVA and CSEM data requires rock-physics relationships to link seismic attributes to electrical properties. Ideally, we can connect them through reservoir parameters (e.g., porosity and water saturation) by developing physical-based models, such as Gassmann’s equations and Archie’s law, using nearby borehole logs. This could be difficult in the exploration stage because information available is typically insufficient for choosing suitable rock-physics models and for subsequently obtaining reliable estimates of the associated parameters. The use of improper rock-physics models and the inaccuracy of the estimates of model parameters may cause misleading inversion results. Conversely, it is easy to derive statistical relationships among seismic and electrical attributes and reservoir parameters from distant borehole logs. In this study, we develop a Bayesian model to jointly invert seismic AVA and CSEM data for reservoir parameter estimation using statistical rock-physics models; the spatial dependence of geophysical and reservoir parameters are carried out by lithotypes through Markov random fields. We apply the developed model to a synthetic case, which simulates a CO{sub 2} monitoring application. We derive statistical rock-physics relations from borehole logs at one location and estimate seismic P- and S-wave velocity ratio, acoustic impedance, density, electrical resistivity, lithotypes, porosity, and water saturation at three different locations by conditioning to seismic AVA and CSEM data. Comparison of the inversion results with their corresponding true values shows that the correlation-based statistical rock-physics models provide significant information for improving the joint inversion results.
Mondal, A.
2010-03-01
In this paper, we study the uncertainty quantification in inverse problems for flows in heterogeneous porous media. Reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (MCMC) are used for hierarchical modeling of channelized permeability fields. Within each channel, the permeability is assumed to have a lognormal distribution. Uncertainty quantification in history matching is carried out hierarchically by constructing geologic facies boundaries as well as permeability fields within each facies using dynamic data such as production data. The search with Metropolis-Hastings algorithm results in very low acceptance rate, and consequently, the computations are CPU demanding. To speed-up the computations, we use a two-stage MCMC that utilizes upscaled models to screen the proposals. In our numerical results, we assume that the channels intersect the wells and the intersection locations are known. Our results show that the proposed algorithms are capable of capturing the channel boundaries and describe the permeability variations within the channels using dynamic production history at the wells. © 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
A Bayesian Analysis of a Random Effects Small Business Loan Credit Scoring Model
Patrick J. Farrell
2011-09-01
Full Text Available One of the most important aspects of credit scoring is constructing a model that has low misclassification rates and is also flexible enough to allow for random variation. It is also well known that, when there are a large number of highly correlated variables as is typical in studies involving questionnaire data, a method must be found to reduce the number of variables to those that have high predictive power. Here we propose a Bayesian multivariate logistic regression model with both fixed and random effects for small business loan credit scoring and a variable reduction method using Bayes factors. The method is illustrated on an interesting data set based on questionnaires sent to loan officers in Canadian banks and venture capital companies
Patriche, Monica
2013-01-01
In this paper, we introduce an abstract fuzzy economy model with a measure space of agents which generalizes Patriche's model (2009), we obtain a theorem of fuzzy equilibrium existence and we prove the existence of the solutions for two types of random quasi-variational inequalities with random fuzzy mappings. As a consequence, we obtain random fixed point theorems.
A Bayesian decision-theoretic sequential response-adaptive randomization design.
Jiang, Fei; Jack Lee, J; Müller, Peter
2013-05-30
We propose a class of phase II clinical trial designs with sequential stopping and adaptive treatment allocation to evaluate treatment efficacy. Our work is based on two-arm (control and experimental treatment) designs with binary endpoints. Our overall goal is to construct more efficient and ethical randomized phase II trials by reducing the average sample sizes and increasing the percentage of patients assigned to the better treatment arms of the trials. The designs combine the Bayesian decision-theoretic sequential approach with adaptive randomization procedures in order to achieve simultaneous goals of improved efficiency and ethics. The design parameters represent the costs of different decisions, for example, the decisions for stopping or continuing the trials. The parameters enable us to incorporate the actual costs of the decisions in practice. The proposed designs allow the clinical trials to stop early for either efficacy or futility. Furthermore, the designs assign more patients to better treatment arms by applying adaptive randomization procedures. We develop an algorithm based on the constrained backward induction and forward simulation to implement the designs. The algorithm overcomes the computational difficulty of the backward induction method, thereby making our approach practicable. The designs result in trials with desirable operating characteristics under the simulated settings. Moreover, the designs are robust with respect to the response rate of the control group. PMID:23315678
Regad Leslie
2010-01-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In bioinformatics it is common to search for a pattern of interest in a potentially large set of rather short sequences (upstream gene regions, proteins, exons, etc.. Although many methodological approaches allow practitioners to compute the distribution of a pattern count in a random sequence generated by a Markov source, no specific developments have taken into account the counting of occurrences in a set of independent sequences. We aim to address this problem by deriving efficient approaches and algorithms to perform these computations both for low and high complexity patterns in the framework of homogeneous or heterogeneous Markov models. Results The latest advances in the field allowed us to use a technique of optimal Markov chain embedding based on deterministic finite automata to introduce three innovative algorithms. Algorithm 1 is the only one able to deal with heterogeneous models. It also permits to avoid any product of convolution of the pattern distribution in individual sequences. When working with homogeneous models, Algorithm 2 yields a dramatic reduction in the complexity by taking advantage of previous computations to obtain moment generating functions efficiently. In the particular case of low or moderate complexity patterns, Algorithm 3 exploits power computation and binary decomposition to further reduce the time complexity to a logarithmic scale. All these algorithms and their relative interest in comparison with existing ones were then tested and discussed on a toy-example and three biological data sets: structural patterns in protein loop structures, PROSITE signatures in a bacterial proteome, and transcription factors in upstream gene regions. On these data sets, we also compared our exact approaches to the tempting approximation that consists in concatenating the sequences in the data set into a single sequence. Conclusions Our algorithms prove to be effective and able to handle real data sets with
Monaco, James Peter; Madabhushi, Anant
2011-07-01
The ability of classification systems to adjust their performance (sensitivity/specificity) is essential for tasks in which certain errors are more significant than others. For example, mislabeling cancerous lesions as benign is typically more detrimental than mislabeling benign lesions as cancerous. Unfortunately, methods for modifying the performance of Markov random field (MRF) based classifiers are noticeably absent from the literature, and thus most such systems restrict their performance to a single, static operating point (a paired sensitivity/specificity). To address this deficiency we present weighted maximum posterior marginals (WMPM) estimation, an extension of maximum posterior marginals (MPM) estimation. Whereas the MPM cost function penalizes each error equally, the WMPM cost function allows misclassifications associated with certain classes to be weighted more heavily than others. This creates a preference for specific classes, and consequently a means for adjusting classifier performance. Realizing WMPM estimation (like MPM estimation) requires estimates of the posterior marginal distributions. The most prevalent means for estimating these--proposed by Marroquin--utilizes a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Though Marroquin's method (M-MCMC) yields estimates that are sufficiently accurate for MPM estimation, they are inadequate for WMPM. To more accurately estimate the posterior marginals we present an equally simple, but more effective extension of the MCMC method (E-MCMC). Assuming an identical number of iterations, E-MCMC as compared to M-MCMC yields estimates with higher fidelity, thereby 1) allowing a far greater number and diversity of operating points and 2) improving overall classifier performance. To illustrate the utility of WMPM and compare the efficacies of M-MCMC and E-MCMC, we integrate them into our MRF-based classification system for detecting cancerous glands in (whole-mount or quarter) histological sections of the prostate
A Bayesian test for periodic signals in red noise
Vaughan, S
2009-01-01
Many astrophysical sources, especially compact accreting sources, show strong, random brightness fluctuations with broad power spectra in addition to periodic or quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) that have narrower spectra. The random nature of the dominant source of variance greatly complicates the process of searching for possible weak periodic signals. We have addressed this problem using the tools of Bayesian statistics; in particular using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to approxim...
Rocha, G.; Pagano, L.; Górski, K. M.; Huffenberger, K. M.; Lawrence, C. R.; Lange, A. E.
2010-04-01
We introduce a new method to propagate uncertainties in the beam shapes used to measure the cosmic microwave background to cosmological parameters determined from those measurements. The method, called markov chain beam randomization (MCBR), randomly samples from a set of templates or functions that describe the beam uncertainties. The method is much faster than direct numerical integration over systematic “nuisance” parameters, and is not restricted to simple, idealized cases as is analytic marginalization. It does not assume the data are normally distributed, and does not require Gaussian priors on the specific systematic uncertainties. We show that MCBR properly accounts for and provides the marginalized errors of the parameters. The method can be generalized and used to propagate any systematic uncertainties for which a set of templates is available. We apply the method to the Planck satellite, and consider future experiments. Beam measurement errors should have a small effect on cosmological parameters as long as the beam fitting is performed after removal of 1/f noise.
Adaptive Dynamic Bayesian Networks
Ng, B M
2007-10-26
A discrete-time Markov process can be compactly modeled as a dynamic Bayesian network (DBN)--a graphical model with nodes representing random variables and directed edges indicating causality between variables. Each node has a probability distribution, conditional on the variables represented by the parent nodes. A DBN's graphical structure encodes fixed conditional dependencies between variables. But in real-world systems, conditional dependencies between variables may be unknown a priori or may vary over time. Model errors can result if the DBN fails to capture all possible interactions between variables. Thus, we explore the representational framework of adaptive DBNs, whose structure and parameters can change from one time step to the next: a distribution's parameters and its set of conditional variables are dynamic. This work builds on recent work in nonparametric Bayesian modeling, such as hierarchical Dirichlet processes, infinite-state hidden Markov networks and structured priors for Bayes net learning. In this paper, we will explain the motivation for our interest in adaptive DBNs, show how popular nonparametric methods are combined to formulate the foundations for adaptive DBNs, and present preliminary results.
Distribusi Markov-Binomial Negatif
Widyasari, Rina
2015-01-01
The way to find a new distribution of random variables is defining the distribution which associated with Markov chain. In this research, researcher defines all the random variables identically independent distributed negative binomial distribution and form a Markov chain. Suppose that Xn is a sequence of Bernoulli trials that if 1 occurs means ”success” and 0 occurs means ”failure”. Nb(s) defined as random variables sth success in n trials. Each trial form a Markov chain, in n...
A Random Walk on WASP-12b with the Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) Code
Harrington, Joseph; Cubillos, Patricio; Blecic, Jasmina; Challener, Ryan; Rojo, Patricio; Lust, Nathaniel B.; Bowman, Oliver; Blumenthal, Sarah D.; Foster, Andrew S. D.; Foster, Austin James; Stemm, Madison; Bruce, Dylan
2016-01-01
We present the Bayesian Atmospheric Radiative Transfer (BART) code for atmospheric property retrievals from transit and eclipse spectra, and apply it to WASP-12b, a hot (~3000 K) exoplanet with a high eclipse signal-to-noise ratio. WASP-12b has been controversial. We (Madhusudhan et al. 2011, Nature) claimed it was the first planet with a high C/O abundance ratio. Line et al. (2014, ApJ) suggested a high CO2 abundance to explain the data. Stevenson et al. (2014, ApJ, atmospheric model by Madhusudhan) add additional data and reaffirm the original result, stating that C2H2 and HCN, not included in the Line et al. models, explain the data. We explore several modeling configurations and include Hubble, Spitzer, and ground-based eclipse data.BART consists of a differential-evolution Markov-Chain Monte Carlo sampler that drives a line-by-line radiative transfer code through the phase space of thermal- and abundance-profile parameters. BART is written in Python and C. Python modules generate atmospheric profiles from sets of MCMC parameters and integrate the resulting spectra over observational bandpasses, allowing high flexibility in modeling the planet without interacting with the fast, C portions that calculate the spectra. BART's shared memory and optimized opacity calculation allow it to run on a laptop, enabling classroom use. Runs can scale constant abundance profiles, profiles of thermochemical equilibrium abundances (TEA) calculated by the included TEA code, or arbitrary curves. Several thermal profile parameterizations are available. BART is an open-source, reproducible-research code. Users must release any code or data modifications if they publish results from it, and we encourage the community to use it and to participate in its development via http://github.com/ExOSPORTS/BART.This work was supported by NASA Planetary Atmospheres grant NNX12AI69G and NASA Astrophysics Data Analysis Program grant NNX13AF38G. J. Blecic holds a NASA Earth and Space Science
Robinson, Sean; Guyon, Laurent; Nevalainen, Jaakko; Toriseva, Mervi
2015-01-01
Organotypic, three dimensional (3D) cell culture models of epithelial tumour types such as prostate cancer recapitulate key aspects of the architecture and histology of solid cancers. Morphometric analysis of multicellular 3D organoids is particularly important when additional components such as the extracellular matrix and tumour microenvironment are included in the model. The complexity of such models has so far limited their successful implementation. There is a great need for automatic, accurate and robust image segmentation tools to facilitate the analysis of such biologically relevant 3D cell culture models. We present a segmentation method based on Markov random fields (MRFs) and illustrate our method using 3D stack image data from an organotypic 3D model of prostate cancer cells co-cultured with cancer-associated fibroblasts (CAFs). The 3D segmentation output suggests that these cell types are in physical contact with each other within the model, which has important implications for tumour biology. Segmentation performance is quantified using ground truth labels and we show how each step of our method increases segmentation accuracy. We provide the ground truth labels along with the image data and code. Using independent image data we show that our segmentation method is also more generally applicable to other types of cellular microscopy and not only limited to fluorescence microscopy. PMID:26630674
Brain tumors, are an abnormal growth of tissues in the brain. They may arise in people of any age. They must be detected early, diagnosed accurately, monitored carefully, and treated effectively in order to optimize patient outcomes regarding both survival and quality of life. Manual segmentation of brain tumors from CT scan images is a challenging and time consuming task. Size and location accurate detection of brain tumor plays a vital role in the successful diagnosis and treatment of tumors. Brain tumor detection is considered a challenging mission in medical image processing. The aim of this paper is to introduce a scheme for tumor detection in CT scan images using two different techniques Hidden Markov Random Fields (HMRF) and Fuzzy C-means (FCM). The proposed method has been developed in this research in order to construct hybrid method between (HMRF) and threshold. These methods have been applied on 4 different patient data sets. The result of comparison among these methods shows that the proposed method gives good results for brain tissue detection, and is more robust and effective compared with (FCM) techniques
Yisu Lu
2014-01-01
Full Text Available Brain-tumor segmentation is an important clinical requirement for brain-tumor diagnosis and radiotherapy planning. It is well-known that the number of clusters is one of the most important parameters for automatic segmentation. However, it is difficult to define owing to the high diversity in appearance of tumor tissue among different patients and the ambiguous boundaries of lesions. In this study, a nonparametric mixture of Dirichlet process (MDP model is applied to segment the tumor images, and the MDP segmentation can be performed without the initialization of the number of clusters. Because the classical MDP segmentation cannot be applied for real-time diagnosis, a new nonparametric segmentation algorithm combined with anisotropic diffusion and a Markov random field (MRF smooth constraint is proposed in this study. Besides the segmentation of single modal brain-tumor images, we developed the algorithm to segment multimodal brain-tumor images by the magnetic resonance (MR multimodal features and obtain the active tumor and edema in the same time. The proposed algorithm is evaluated using 32 multimodal MR glioma image sequences, and the segmentation results are compared with other approaches. The accuracy and computation time of our algorithm demonstrates very impressive performance and has a great potential for practical real-time clinical use.
Abdulbaqi, Hayder Saad [School of Physics, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11700, Penang (Malaysia); Department of Physics, College of Education, University of Al-Qadisiya, Al-Qadisiya (Iraq); Jafri, Mohd Zubir Mat; Omar, Ahmad Fairuz; Mustafa, Iskandar Shahrim Bin [School of Physics, Universiti Sains Malaysia, 11700, Penang (Malaysia); Abood, Loay Kadom [Department of Computer Science, College of Science, University of Baghdad, Baghdad (Iraq)
2015-04-24
Brain tumors, are an abnormal growth of tissues in the brain. They may arise in people of any age. They must be detected early, diagnosed accurately, monitored carefully, and treated effectively in order to optimize patient outcomes regarding both survival and quality of life. Manual segmentation of brain tumors from CT scan images is a challenging and time consuming task. Size and location accurate detection of brain tumor plays a vital role in the successful diagnosis and treatment of tumors. Brain tumor detection is considered a challenging mission in medical image processing. The aim of this paper is to introduce a scheme for tumor detection in CT scan images using two different techniques Hidden Markov Random Fields (HMRF) and Fuzzy C-means (FCM). The proposed method has been developed in this research in order to construct hybrid method between (HMRF) and threshold. These methods have been applied on 4 different patient data sets. The result of comparison among these methods shows that the proposed method gives good results for brain tissue detection, and is more robust and effective compared with (FCM) techniques.
Osman Nuri UÇAN; SAĞIROĞLU, Mahmut Şamil
2002-01-01
This paper describes a Markov Random Field model for coupled range and confidence signals. Beamforming is a method used to bring a range image from backscattered echos of acoustic signals. Another information is confidence of signal which associated point by point with this range data. In the proposed algorithm, the range and confidence images are modeled as Markov Random Fields whose probability distributions are specified by a single energy function. The optimization of this model gives rec...
Enrique Gracia
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This paper uses spatial data of cases of intimate partner violence against women (IPVAW to examine neighborhood-level influences on small-area variations in IPVAW risk in a police district of the city of Valencia (Spain. To analyze area variations in IPVAW risk and its association with neighborhood-level explanatory variables we use a Bayesian spatial random-effects modeling approach, as well as disease mapping methods to represent risk probabilities in each area. Analyses show that IPVAW cases are more likely in areas of high immigrant concentration, high public disorder and crime, and high physical disorder. Results also show a spatial component indicating remaining variability attributable to spatially structured random effects. Bayesian spatial modeling offers a new perspective to identify IPVAW high and low risk areas, and provides a new avenue for the design of better-informed prevention and intervention strategies.
Rubin, Yoram; Chen, Xingyuan; Murakami, Haruko; Hahn, Melanie
2010-10-01
This paper addresses the inverse problem in spatially variable fields such as hydraulic conductivity in groundwater aquifers or rainfall intensity in hydrology. Common to all these problems is the existence of a complex pattern of spatial variability of the target variables and observations, the multiple sources of data available for characterizing the fields, the complex relations between the observed and target variables and the multiple scales and frequencies of the observations. The method of anchored distributions (MAD) that we propose here is a general Bayesian method of inverse modeling of spatial random fields that addresses this complexity. The central elements of MAD are a modular classification of all relevant data and a new concept called "anchors." Data types are classified by the way they relate to the target variable, as either local or nonlocal and as either direct or indirect. Anchors are devices for localization of data: they are used to convert nonlocal, indirect data into local distributions of the target variables. The target of the inversion is the derivation of the joint distribution of the anchors and structural parameters, conditional to all measurements, regardless of scale or frequency of measurement. The structural parameters describe large-scale trends of the target variable fields, whereas the anchors capture local inhomogeneities. Following inversion, the joint distribution of anchors and structural parameters is used for generating random fields of the target variable(s) that are conditioned on the nonlocal, indirect data through their anchor representation. We demonstrate MAD through a detailed case study that assimilates point measurements of the conductivity with head measurements from natural gradient flow. The resulting statistical distributions of the parameters are non-Gaussian. Similarly, the moments of the estimates of the hydraulic head are non-Gaussian. We provide an extended discussion of MAD vis à vis other inversion
Dwyer, Michael G; Bergsland, Niels; Zivadinov, Robert
2014-04-15
SIENA and similar techniques have demonstrated the utility of performing "direct" measurements as opposed to post-hoc comparison of cross-sectional data for the measurement of whole brain (WB) atrophy over time. However, gray matter (GM) and white matter (WM) atrophy are now widely recognized as important components of neurological disease progression, and are being actively evaluated as secondary endpoints in clinical trials. Direct measures of GM/WM change with advantages similar to SIENA have been lacking. We created a robust and easily-implemented method for direct longitudinal analysis of GM/WM atrophy, SIENAX multi-time-point (SIENAX-MTP). We built on the basic halfway-registration and mask composition components of SIENA to improve the raw output of FMRIB's FAST tissue segmentation tool. In addition, we created LFAST, a modified version of FAST incorporating a 4th dimension in its hidden Markov random field model in order to directly represent time. The method was validated by scan-rescan, simulation, comparison with SIENA, and two clinical effect size comparisons. All validation approaches demonstrated improved longitudinal precision with the proposed SIENAX-MTP method compared to SIENAX. For GM, simulation showed better correlation with experimental volume changes (r=0.992 vs. 0.941), scan-rescan showed lower standard deviations (3.8% vs. 8.4%), correlation with SIENA was more robust (r=0.70 vs. 0.53), and effect sizes were improved by up to 68%. Statistical power estimates indicated a potential drop of 55% in the number of subjects required to detect the same treatment effect with SIENAX-MTP vs. SIENAX. The proposed direct GM/WM method significantly improves on the standard SIENAX technique by trading a small amount of bias for a large reduction in variance, and may provide more precise data and additional statistical power in longitudinal studies. PMID:24333394
Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael
2003-01-01
A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which...... represents the spatial coordinates of the grid nodes. Knowledge of how grid nodes are depicted in the observed image is described through the observation model. The prior consists of a node prior and an arc (edge) prior, both modeled as Gaussian MRFs. The node prior models variations in the positions of grid...... nodes and the arc prior models variations in row and column spacing across the grid. Grid matching is done by placing an initial rough grid over the image and applying an ensemble annealing scheme to maximize the posterior distribution of the grid. The method can be applied to noisy images with missing...
El Yazid Boudaren, Mohamed; Monfrini, Emmanuel; Pieczynski, Wojciech; Aïssani, Amar
2014-11-01
Hidden Markov chains have been shown to be inadequate for data modeling under some complex conditions. In this work, we address the problem of statistical modeling of phenomena involving two heterogeneous system states. Such phenomena may arise in biology or communications, among other fields. Namely, we consider that a sequence of meaningful words is to be searched within a whole observation that also contains arbitrary one-by-one symbols. Moreover, a word may be interrupted at some site to be carried on later. Applying plain hidden Markov chains to such data, while ignoring their specificity, yields unsatisfactory results. The Phasic triplet Markov chain, proposed in this paper, overcomes this difficulty by means of an auxiliary underlying process in accordance with the triplet Markov chains theory. Related Bayesian restoration techniques and parameters estimation procedures according to the new model are then described. Finally, to assess the performance of the proposed model against the conventional hidden Markov chain model, experiments are conducted on synthetic and real data. PMID:26353069
Bayesian statistics an introduction
Lee, Peter M
2012-01-01
Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel
Guillaume Marrelec
Full Text Available The use of mutual information as a similarity measure in agglomerative hierarchical clustering (AHC raises an important issue: some correction needs to be applied for the dimensionality of variables. In this work, we formulate the decision of merging dependent multivariate normal variables in an AHC procedure as a Bayesian model comparison. We found that the Bayesian formulation naturally shrinks the empirical covariance matrix towards a matrix set a priori (e.g., the identity, provides an automated stopping rule, and corrects for dimensionality using a term that scales up the measure as a function of the dimensionality of the variables. Also, the resulting log Bayes factor is asymptotically proportional to the plug-in estimate of mutual information, with an additive correction for dimensionality in agreement with the Bayesian information criterion. We investigated the behavior of these Bayesian alternatives (in exact and asymptotic forms to mutual information on simulated and real data. An encouraging result was first derived on simulations: the hierarchical clustering based on the log Bayes factor outperformed off-the-shelf clustering techniques as well as raw and normalized mutual information in terms of classification accuracy. On a toy example, we found that the Bayesian approaches led to results that were similar to those of mutual information clustering techniques, with the advantage of an automated thresholding. On real functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI datasets measuring brain activity, it identified clusters consistent with the established outcome of standard procedures. On this application, normalized mutual information had a highly atypical behavior, in the sense that it systematically favored very large clusters. These initial experiments suggest that the proposed Bayesian alternatives to mutual information are a useful new tool for hierarchical clustering.
Theoretical evaluation of the detectability of random lesions in bayesian emission reconstruction
Detecting cancerous lesion is an important task in positron emission tomography (PET). Bayesian methods based on the maximum a posteriori principle (also called penalized maximum likelihood methods) have been developed to deal with the low signal to noise ratio in the emission data. Similar to the filter cut-off frequency in the filtered backprojection method, the prior parameters in Bayesian reconstruction control the resolution and noise trade-off and hence affect detectability of lesions in reconstructed images. Bayesian reconstructions are difficult to analyze because the resolution and noise properties are nonlinear and object-dependent. Most research has been based on Monte Carlo simulations, which are very time consuming. Building on the recent progress on the theoretical analysis of image properties of statistical reconstructions and the development of numerical observers, here we develop a theoretical approach for fast computation of lesion detectability in Bayesian reconstruction. The results can be used to choose the optimum hyperparameter for the maximum lesion detectability. New in this work is the use of theoretical expressions that explicitly model the statistical variation of the lesion and background without assuming that the object variation is (locally) stationary. The theoretical results are validated using Monte Carlo simulations. The comparisons show good agreement between the theoretical predications and the Monte Carlo results
Multivariate longitudinal data analysis with mixed effects hidden Markov models.
Raffa, Jesse D; Dubin, Joel A
2015-09-01
Multiple longitudinal responses are often collected as a means to capture relevant features of the true outcome of interest, which is often hidden and not directly measurable. We outline an approach which models these multivariate longitudinal responses as generated from a hidden disease process. We propose a class of models which uses a hidden Markov model with separate but correlated random effects between multiple longitudinal responses. This approach was motivated by a smoking cessation clinical trial, where a bivariate longitudinal response involving both a continuous and a binomial response was collected for each participant to monitor smoking behavior. A Bayesian method using Markov chain Monte Carlo is used. Comparison of separate univariate response models to the bivariate response models was undertaken. Our methods are demonstrated on the smoking cessation clinical trial dataset, and properties of our approach are examined through extensive simulation studies. PMID:25761965
Fudym, O [RAPSODEE UMR 2392 CNRS, Mines Albi, Campus Jarlard, Albi (France); Orlande, H R B [PEM/COPPE, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil); Bamford, M; Batsale, J C [TREFLE-ENSAM, UMR 8508 CNRS, Talence (France)], E-mail: fudym@enstimac.fr
2008-11-01
This paper aims at the identification of spatially-dependent thermophysical properties and is focused on the mapping of thermal diffusivity. A one-dimensional heat conduction problem is used for the comparison of ordinary least-squares, maximum a posteriori and Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods. Simulated temperature measurements are used in the inverse analysis, which is based on a nodal strategy that results on a linear estimation problem. The nodal strategy relies on the availability of temperature measurements with fine spatial resolution and high frequency, typical of nowadays infrared cameras.
An examination of disparities in cancer incidence in Texas using Bayesian random coefficient models
Sparks, Corey
2015-01-01
Disparities in cancer risk exist between ethnic groups in the United States. These disparities often result from differential access to healthcare, differences in socioeconomic status and differential exposure to carcinogens. This study uses cancer incidence data from the population based Texas Cancer Registry to investigate the disparities in digestive and respiratory cancers from 2000 to 2008. A Bayesian hierarchical regression approach is used. All models are fit using the INLA method of B...
Nonparametric Bayesian Classification
Coram, M A
2002-01-01
A Bayesian approach to the classification problem is proposed in which random partitions play a central role. It is argued that the partitioning approach has the capacity to take advantage of a variety of large-scale spatial structures, if they are present in the unknown regression function $f_0$. An idealized one-dimensional problem is considered in detail. The proposed nonparametric prior uses random split points to partition the unit interval into a random number of pieces. This prior is found to provide a consistent estimate of the regression function in the $\\L^p$ topology, for any $1 \\leq p < \\infty$, and for arbitrary measurable $f_0:[0,1] \\rightarrow [0,1]$. A Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) implementation is outlined and analyzed. Simulation experiments are conducted to show that the proposed estimate compares favorably with a variety of conventional estimators. A striking resemblance between the posterior mean estimate and the bagged CART estimate is noted and discussed. For higher dimensions, a ...
Markov Chain Order estimation with Conditional Mutual Information
Papapetrou, Maria; 10.1016/j.physa.2012.12.017.
2013-01-01
We introduce the Conditional Mutual Information (CMI) for the estimation of the Markov chain order. For a Markov chain of $K$ symbols, we define CMI of order $m$, $I_c(m)$, as the mutual information of two variables in the chain being $m$ time steps apart, conditioning on the intermediate variables of the chain. We find approximate analytic significance limits based on the estimation bias of CMI and develop a randomization significance test of $I_c(m)$, where the randomized symbol sequences are formed by random permutation of the components of the original symbol sequence. The significance test is applied for increasing $m$ and the Markov chain order is estimated by the last order for which the null hypothesis is rejected. We present the appropriateness of CMI-testing on Monte Carlo simulations and compare it to the Akaike and Bayesian information criteria, the maximal fluctuation method (Peres-Shields estimator) and a likelihood ratio test for increasing orders using $\\phi$-divergence. The order criterion of...
A hidden Markov Model for image fusion and their joint segmentation in medical image computing
Féron, O; Feron, Olivier; Mohammad-Djafari, Ali
2004-01-01
In this work we propose a Bayesian framework for fully automated image fusion and their joint segmentation. More specifically, we consider the case where we have observed images of the same object through different image processes or through different spectral bands. The objective of this work is then to propose a coherent approach to combine these data sets and obtain a segmented image which can be considered as the fusion result of these observations. The proposed approach is based on a Hidden Markov Modeling (HMM) of the images with common segmentation, or equivalently, with common hidden classification label variables which are modeled by the Potts Markov Random Field. We propose an appropriate Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm to implement the method and show some simulation results and applications.
Phan, Kevin; Xie, Ashleigh; Kumar, Narendra; Wong, Sophia; Medi, Caroline; La Meir, Mark; Yan, Tristan D
2015-08-01
Simplified maze procedures involving radiofrequency, cryoenergy and microwave energy sources have been increasingly utilized for surgical treatment of atrial fibrillation as an alternative to the traditional cut-and-sew approach. In the absence of direct comparisons, a Bayesian network meta-analysis is another alternative to assess the relative effect of different treatments, using indirect evidence. A Bayesian meta-analysis of indirect evidence was performed using 16 published randomized trials identified from 6 databases. Rank probability analysis was used to rank each intervention in terms of their probability of having the best outcome. Sinus rhythm prevalence beyond the 12-month follow-up was similar between the cut-and-sew, microwave and radiofrequency approaches, which were all ranked better than cryoablation (respectively, 39, 36, and 25 vs 1%). The cut-and-sew maze was ranked worst in terms of mortality outcomes compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (2 vs 19, 34, and 24%, respectively). The cut-and-sew maze procedure was associated with significantly lower stroke rates compared with microwave ablation [odds ratio <0.01; 95% confidence interval 0.00, 0.82], and ranked the best in terms of pacemaker requirements compared with microwave, radiofrequency and cryoenergy (81 vs 14, and 1, <0.01% respectively). Bayesian rank probability analysis shows that the cut-and-sew approach is associated with the best outcomes in terms of sinus rhythm prevalence and stroke outcomes, and remains the gold standard approach for AF treatment. Given the limitations of indirect comparison analysis, these results should be viewed with caution and not over-interpreted. PMID:25391388
Elvira, Clément; Dobigeon, Nicolas
2015-01-01
Sparse representations have proven their efficiency in solving a wide class of inverse problems encountered in signal and image processing. Conversely, enforcing the information to be spread uniformly over representation coefficients exhibits relevant properties in various applications such as digital communications. Anti-sparse regularization can be naturally expressed through an $\\ell_{\\infty}$-norm penalty. This paper derives a probabilistic formulation of such representations. A new probability distribution, referred to as the democratic prior, is first introduced. Its main properties as well as three random variate generators for this distribution are derived. Then this probability distribution is used as a prior to promote anti-sparsity in a Gaussian linear inverse problem, yielding a fully Bayesian formulation of anti-sparse coding. Two Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are proposed to generate samples according to the posterior distribution. The first one is a standard Gibbs sampler. The seco...
The Entropy of Conditional Markov Trajectories
Kafsi, Mohamed; Grossglauser, Matthias; Thiran, Patrick
2012-01-01
To quantify the randomness of Markov trajectories with fixed initial and final states, Ekroot and Cover proposed a closed-form expression for the entropy of trajectories of an irreducible finite state Markov chain. Numerous applications, including the study of random walks on graphs, require the computation of the entropy of Markov trajectories conditioned on a set of intermediate states. However, the expression of Ekroot and Cover does not allow for computing this quantity. In this paper, we...
The Laser Interferometer Space Antenna (LISA) defines new demands on data analysis efforts in its all-sky gravitational wave survey, recording simultaneously thousands of galactic compact object binary foreground sources and tens to hundreds of background sources like binary black hole mergers and extreme-mass ratio inspirals. We approach this problem with an adaptive and fully automatic Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler, able to sample from the joint posterior density function (as established by Bayes theorem) for a given mixture of signals ''out of the box'', handling the total number of signals as an additional unknown parameter beside the unknown parameters of each individual source and the noise floor. We show in examples from the LISA Mock Data Challenge implementing the full response of LISA in its TDI description that this sampler is able to extract monochromatic Double White Dwarf signals out of colored instrumental noise and additional foreground and background noise successfully in a global fitting approach. We introduce 2 examples with fixed number of signals (MCMC sampling), and 1 example with unknown number of signals (RJ-MCMC), the latter further promoting the idea behind an experimental adaptation of the model indicator proposal densities in the main sampling stage. We note that the experienced runtimes and degeneracies in parameter extraction limit the shown examples to the extraction of a low but realistic number of signals.
MAGIC: Exact Bayesian Covariance Estimation and Signal Reconstruction for Gaussian Random Fields
Wandelt, Benjamin D.
2004-01-01
In this talk I describe MAGIC, an efficient approach to covariance estimation and signal reconstruction for Gaussian random fields (MAGIC Allows Global Inference of Covariance). It solves a long-standing problem in the field of cosmic microwave background (CMB) data analysis but is in fact a general technique that can be applied to noisy, contaminated and incomplete or censored measurements of either spatial or temporal Gaussian random fields. In this talk I will phrase the method in a way th...
Markov chains and decision processes for engineers and managers
Sheskin, Theodore J
2010-01-01
Markov Chain Structure and ModelsHistorical NoteStates and TransitionsModel of the WeatherRandom WalksEstimating Transition ProbabilitiesMultiple-Step Transition ProbabilitiesState Probabilities after Multiple StepsClassification of StatesMarkov Chain StructureMarkov Chain ModelsProblemsReferencesRegular Markov ChainsSteady State ProbabilitiesFirst Passage to a Target StateProblemsReferencesReducible Markov ChainsCanonical Form of the Transition MatrixTh
Huang, Maoyi; Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Ren, Huiying; Liu, Ying; Swiler, Laura P.
2016-07-04
The Community Land Model (CLM) has been widely used in climate and Earth system modeling. Accurate estimation of model parameters is needed for reliable model simulations and predictions under current and future conditions, respectively. In our previous work, a subset of hydrological parameters has been identified to have significant impact on surface energy fluxes at selected flux tower sites based on parameter screening and sensitivity analysis, which indicate that the parameters could potentially be estimated from surface flux observations at the towers. To date, such estimates do not exist. In this paper, we assess the feasibility of applying a Bayesian model calibration technique to estimate CLM parameters at selected flux tower sites under various site conditions. The parameters are estimated as a joint probability density function (PDF) that provides estimates of uncertainty of the parameters being inverted, conditional on climatologically-average latent heat fluxes derived from observations. We find that the simulated mean latent heat fluxes from CLM using the calibrated parameters are generally improved at all sites when compared to those obtained with CLM simulations using default parameter sets. Further, our calibration method also results in credibility bounds around the simulated mean fluxes which bracket the measured data. The modes (or maximum a posteriori values) and 95% credibility intervals of the site-specific posterior PDFs are tabulated as suggested parameter values for each site. Analysis of relationships between the posterior PDFs and site conditions suggests that the parameter values are likely correlated with the plant functional type, which needs to be confirmed in future studies by extending the approach to more sites.
Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Probit Models
Siddhartha Chib; Edward Greenberg
1996-01-01
This paper provides a unified simulation-based Bayesian and non-Bayesian analysis of correlated binary data using the multivariate probit model. The posterior distribution is simulated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by a Markov chain Monte Carlo version of the E-M algorithm. Computation of Bayes factors from the simulation output is also considered. The methods are applied to a bivariate data set, to a 534-subject, four-year longitudinal dat...
Hidden Markov model using Dirichlet process for de-identification.
Chen, Tao; Cullen, Richard M; Godwin, Marshall
2015-12-01
For the 2014 i2b2/UTHealth de-identification challenge, we introduced a new non-parametric Bayesian hidden Markov model using a Dirichlet process (HMM-DP). The model intends to reduce task-specific feature engineering and to generalize well to new data. In the challenge we developed a variational method to learn the model and an efficient approximation algorithm for prediction. To accommodate out-of-vocabulary words, we designed a number of feature functions to model such words. The results show the model is capable of understanding local context cues to make correct predictions without manual feature engineering and performs as accurately as state-of-the-art conditional random field models in a number of categories. To incorporate long-range and cross-document context cues, we developed a skip-chain conditional random field model to align the results produced by HMM-DP, which further improved the performance. PMID:26407642
Chen, Yu-Pei; Guo, Rui; Liu, Na; Liu, Xu; Mao, Yan-Ping; Tang, Ling-Long; Zhou, Guan-qun; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun
2015-01-01
Background: Due to the lack of studies, it remains unclear whether the additional neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) to concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) is superior to CCRT alone for locoregionally advanced nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). The main objective of this Bayesian network meta-analysis was to determine the efficacy of NACT+CCRT as compared with CCRT alone. Methods: We comprehensively searched databases and extracted data from randomized controlled trials involving NPC patients who r...
Entropy: The Markov Ordering Approach
Gorban, A N; Judge, G
2010-01-01
The focus of this article is on entropy and Markov processes. We study the properties of functionals which are invariant with respect to monotonic transformations and analyze two invariant "additivity" properties: (i) existence of a monotonic transformation which makes the functional additive with respect to the joining of independent systems and (ii) existence of a monotonic transformation which makes the functional additive with respect to the partitioning of the space of states. All Lyapunov functionals for Markov chains which have properties (i) and (ii) are derived. We describe the most general ordering of the distribution space, with respect to which all continuous-time Markov processes are monotonic (the {\\em Markov order}). The solution differs significantly from the ordering given by the inequality of entropy growth. For inference, this approach results in a convex compact set of conditionally "most random" distributions.
Raberto, Marco; Scalas, Enrico
2011-01-01
In this paper, we outline a model of graph (or network) dynamics based on two ingredients. The first ingredient is a Markov chain on the space of possible graphs. The second ingredient is a semi-Markov counting process of renewal type. The model consists in subordinating the Markov chain to the semi-Markov counting process. In simple words, this means that the chain transitions occur at random time instants called epochs. The model is quite rich and its possible connections with algebraic geometry are briefly discussed. Moreover, for the sake of simplicity, we focus on the space of undirected graphs with a fixed number of nodes. However, in an example, we present an interbank market model where it is meaningful to use directed graphs or even weighted graphs.
Graphs: Associated Markov Chains
Murthy, Garimella Rama
2012-01-01
In this research paper, weighted / unweighted, directed / undirected graphs are associated with interesting Discrete Time Markov Chains (DTMCs) as well as Continuous Time Markov Chains (CTMCs). The equilibrium / transient behaviour of such Markov chains is studied. Also entropy dynamics (Shannon entropy) of certain structured Markov chains is investigated. Finally certain structured graphs and the associated Markov chains are studied.
Frank, T.D. [Center for the Ecological Study of Perception and Action, Department of Psychology, University of Connecticut, 406 Babbidge Road, Storrs, CT 06269 (United States)], E-mail: till.frank@uconn.edu
2008-06-16
Some elementary properties and examples of Markov processes are reviewed. It is shown that the definition of the Markov property naturally leads to a classification of Markov processes into linear and nonlinear ones.
Some elementary properties and examples of Markov processes are reviewed. It is shown that the definition of the Markov property naturally leads to a classification of Markov processes into linear and nonlinear ones
A Bayesian nonlinear mixed-effects disease progression model
Kim, Seongho; Jang, Hyejeong; Wu, Dongfeng; Abrams, Judith
2016-01-01
A nonlinear mixed-effects approach is developed for disease progression models that incorporate variation in age in a Bayesian framework. We further generalize the probability model for sensitivity to depend on age at diagnosis, time spent in the preclinical state and sojourn time. The developed models are then applied to the Johns Hopkins Lung Project data and the Health Insurance Plan for Greater New York data using Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo and are compared with the estimation method that does not consider random-effects from age. Using the developed models, we obtain not only age-specific individual-level distributions, but also population-level distributions of sensitivity, sojourn time and transition probability. PMID:26798562
Saldanha Filho, Paulo Carlos
1998-02-01
Stochastic simulation has been employed in petroleum reservoir characterization as a modeling tool able to reconcile information from several different sources. It has the ability to preserve the variability of the modeled phenomena and permits transference of geological knowledge to numerical models of flux, whose predictions on reservoir constitute the main basis for reservoir management decisions. Several stochastic models have been used and/or suggested, depending on the nature of the phenomena to be described. Markov Random Fields (MRFs) appear as an alternative for the modeling of discrete variables, mainly reservoirs with mosaic architecture of facies. In this dissertation, the reader is introduced to the stochastic modeling by MRFs in a generic sense. The main aspects of the technique are reviewed. MRF Conceptual Background is described: its characterization through the Markovian property and the equivalence to Gibbs distributions. The framework for generic modeling of MRFs is described. The classical models of Ising and Potts-Strauss are specific in this context and are related to models of Ising and Potts-Strauss are specific in this context and are related to models used in petroleum reservoir characterization. The problem of parameter estimation is discussed. The maximum pseudolikelihood estimators for some models are presented. Estimators for two models useful for reservoir characterization are developed, and represent a new contribution to the subject. Five algorithms for the Conditional Simulation of MRFs are described: the Metropolis algorithm, the algorithm of German and German (Gibbs sampler), the algorithm of Swendsen-Wang, the algorithm of Wolff, and the algorithm of Flinn. Finally, examples of simulation for some of the models discussed are presented, along with their implications on the modelling of petroleum reservoirs. (author)
Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS
Ntzoufras, Ioannis
2009-01-01
A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...
Markov processes and controlled Markov chains
Filar, Jerzy; Chen, Anyue
2002-01-01
The general theory of stochastic processes and the more specialized theory of Markov processes evolved enormously in the second half of the last century. In parallel, the theory of controlled Markov chains (or Markov decision processes) was being pioneered by control engineers and operations researchers. Researchers in Markov processes and controlled Markov chains have been, for a long time, aware of the synergies between these two subject areas. However, this may be the first volume dedicated to highlighting these synergies and, almost certainly, it is the first volume that emphasizes the contributions of the vibrant and growing Chinese school of probability. The chapters that appear in this book reflect both the maturity and the vitality of modern day Markov processes and controlled Markov chains. They also will provide an opportunity to trace the connections that have emerged between the work done by members of the Chinese school of probability and the work done by the European, US, Central and South Ameri...
Entropy Computation in Partially Observed Markov Chains
Desbouvries, François
2006-11-01
Let X = {Xn}n∈N be a hidden process and Y = {Yn}n∈N be an observed process. We assume that (X,Y) is a (pairwise) Markov Chain (PMC). PMC are more general than Hidden Markov Chains (HMC) and yet enable the development of efficient parameter estimation and Bayesian restoration algorithms. In this paper we propose a fast (i.e., O(N)) algorithm for computing the entropy of {Xn}n=0N given an observation sequence {yn}n=0N.
R.J. Boys
2002-01-01
Full Text Available This paper describes a Bayesian approach to determining the order of a finite state Markov chain whose transition probabilities are themselves governed by a homogeneous finite state Markov chain. It extends previous work on homogeneous Markov chains to more general and applicable hidden Markov models. The method we describe uses a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to obtain samples from the (posterior distribution for both the order of Markov dependence in the observed sequence and the other governing model parameters. These samples allow coherent inferences to be made straightforwardly in contrast to those which use information criteria. The methods are illustrated by their application to both simulated and real data sets.
Discrete Quantum Markov Chains
Faigle, Ulrich
2010-01-01
A framework for finite-dimensional quantum Markov chains on Hilbert spaces is introduced. Quantum Markov chains generalize both classical Markov chains with possibly hidden states and existing models of quantum walks on finite graphs. Quantum Markov chains are based on Markov operations that may be applied to quantum systems and include quantum measurements, for example. It is proved that quantum Markov chains are asymptotically stationary and hence possess ergodic and entropic properties. With a quantum Markov chain one may associate a quantum Markov process, which is a stochastic process in the classical sense. Generalized Markov chains allow a representation with respect to a generalized Markov source model with definite (but possibly hidden) states relative to which observables give rise to classical stochastic processes. It is demonstrated that this model allows for observables to violate Bell's inequality.
Microstructure Image Simulation of Minced Pork Based on Markov Random Field%基于Markov随机场的猪肉糜微结构图像模拟
李华北; 赵杰文
2001-01-01
A stochastic simulation model of minced pork microstructure image was derived with the help of Markov random field theory and Gibbs distribution. The minced pork images of various microstructure were simulated iteratively, and the obtained images were compared with their original ones. The analysis and simulation for the microstructure images of minced food material are key processes in quantitatively studying the influence of microstructure pattern on rheological behavior. By getting the geometry features of minced food material microstructure from the known rheological behavior, the dynamic mechanism and process of the microstructure can be investigated and studied further, therefore the relationship between the rheological behavior and the microstructure was founded. So the conditions quantitatively describing rheological behavior of the minced food material were provided.%利用Markov随机场和Gibbs分布理论，建立了猪肉糜微结构图像的随机场模型，然后通过迭代方法，对不同微结构的猪肉糜图像进行了随机模拟，同时对随机模拟图像和原始图像作了对比分析。 糜状食品物料微观结构图像的分析和模拟是定量研究其微结构模式形态对流变特性影响的关键问题。通过从已知流变特性反演糜状食品物料微结构的几何形态，可以更深入地探讨、研究微结构形成的动力学机制和过程，进而沟通流变特性和微结构形态之间的联系，从而为定量描述糜状食品物料的流变特性提供了条件。
崔静
2012-01-01
On the basic of the general theory of Markov Chains,relations between characteristic number and taboo probability of Markov chains in random enviroments are discussed and the decomposition of characteristic number of strong recurrence is given.The property of distribrution moments is obtained by means of the general decomposition formula of Taboo probability,which has enriched the correspanding result of Markov Chairs in randon envirionments described in literatures.%利用马氏链的一般理论讨论了随机环境中马氏链的特征数和禁止概率的关系,给出了强常返状态特征数的分解公式,利用禁止概率的一般分解公式研究了分布矩的性质,丰富了现有文献中的随机环境中马氏链的相关结果。
Bayesian network learning for natural hazard assessments
Vogel, Kristin
2016-04-01
Even though quite different in occurrence and consequences, from a modelling perspective many natural hazards share similar properties and challenges. Their complex nature as well as lacking knowledge about their driving forces and potential effects make their analysis demanding. On top of the uncertainty about the modelling framework, inaccurate or incomplete event observations and the intrinsic randomness of the natural phenomenon add up to different interacting layers of uncertainty, which require a careful handling. Thus, for reliable natural hazard assessments it is crucial not only to capture and quantify involved uncertainties, but also to express and communicate uncertainties in an intuitive way. Decision-makers, who often find it difficult to deal with uncertainties, might otherwise return to familiar (mostly deterministic) proceedings. In the scope of the DFG research training group „NatRiskChange" we apply the probabilistic framework of Bayesian networks for diverse natural hazard and vulnerability studies. The great potential of Bayesian networks was already shown in previous natural hazard assessments. Treating each model component as random variable, Bayesian networks aim at capturing the joint distribution of all considered variables. Hence, each conditional distribution of interest (e.g. the effect of precautionary measures on damage reduction) can be inferred. The (in-)dependencies between the considered variables can be learned purely data driven or be given by experts. Even a combination of both is possible. By translating the (in-)dependences into a graph structure, Bayesian networks provide direct insights into the workings of the system and allow to learn about the underlying processes. Besides numerous studies on the topic, learning Bayesian networks from real-world data remains challenging. In previous studies, e.g. on earthquake induced ground motion and flood damage assessments, we tackled the problems arising with continuous variables
Robust Tracking of Small Displacements With a Bayesian Estimator.
Dumont, Douglas M; Byram, Brett C
2016-01-01
Radiation-force-based elasticity imaging describes a group of techniques that use acoustic radiation force (ARF) to displace tissue to obtain qualitative or quantitative measurements of tissue properties. Because ARF-induced displacements are on the order of micrometers, tracking these displacements in vivo can be challenging. Previously, it has been shown that Bayesian-based estimation can overcome some of the limitations of a traditional displacement estimator such as normalized cross-correlation (NCC). In this work, we describe a Bayesian framework that combines a generalized Gaussian-Markov random field (GGMRF) prior with an automated method for selecting the prior's width. We then evaluate its performance in the context of tracking the micrometer-order displacements encountered in an ARF-based method such as ARF impulse (ARFI) imaging. The results show that bias, variance, and mean-square error (MSE) performance vary with prior shape and width, and that an almost one order-of-magnitude reduction in MSE can be achieved by the estimator at the automatically selected prior width. Lesion simulations show that the proposed estimator has a higher contrast-to-noise ratio but lower contrast than NCC, median-filtered NCC, and the previous Bayesian estimator, with a non-Gaussian prior shape having better lesion-edge resolution than a Gaussian prior. In vivo results from a cardiac, radio-frequency ablation ARFI imaging dataset show quantitative improvements in lesion contrast-to-noise ratio over NCC as well as the previous Bayesian estimator. PMID:26529761
Bayesian Estimation and Inference Using Stochastic Electronics.
Thakur, Chetan Singh; Afshar, Saeed; Wang, Runchun M; Hamilton, Tara J; Tapson, Jonathan; van Schaik, André
2016-01-01
In this paper, we present the implementation of two types of Bayesian inference problems to demonstrate the potential of building probabilistic algorithms in hardware using single set of building blocks with the ability to perform these computations in real time. The first implementation, referred to as the BEAST (Bayesian Estimation and Stochastic Tracker), demonstrates a simple problem where an observer uses an underlying Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to track a target in one dimension. In this implementation, sensors make noisy observations of the target position at discrete time steps. The tracker learns the transition model for target movement, and the observation model for the noisy sensors, and uses these to estimate the target position by solving the Bayesian recursive equation online. We show the tracking performance of the system and demonstrate how it can learn the observation model, the transition model, and the external distractor (noise) probability interfering with the observations. In the second implementation, referred to as the Bayesian INference in DAG (BIND), we show how inference can be performed in a Directed Acyclic Graph (DAG) using stochastic circuits. We show how these building blocks can be easily implemented using simple digital logic gates. An advantage of the stochastic electronic implementation is that it is robust to certain types of noise, which may become an issue in integrated circuit (IC) technology with feature sizes in the order of tens of nanometers due to their low noise margin, the effect of high-energy cosmic rays and the low supply voltage. In our framework, the flipping of random individual bits would not affect the system performance because information is encoded in a bit stream. PMID:27047326
Dynamic risk management with Markov decision processes
Mundt, André Philipp
2008-01-01
An important tool in risk management is the implementation of risk measures. We study dynamic models where risk measures and dynamic risk measures can be applied. In particular, we solve various portfolio optimization problems and introduce a class of dynamic risk measures via the notion of Markov decision processes. Using Bayesian control theory we furthermore derive an extension of the latter setting when we face model uncertainty.
Grey-Markov Model for Road Accidents Forecasting
李相勇; 严余松; 蒋葛夫
2003-01-01
In order to improve the forecasting precision of road accidents, by introducing Markov chains forecasting method, a grey-Markov model for forecasting road accidents is established based on grey forecasting method. The model combines the advantages of both grey forecasting method and Markov chains forecasting method, overcomes the influence of random fluctuation data on forecasting precision and widens the application scope of the grey forecasting. An application example is conducted to evaluate the grey-Markov model, which shows that the precision of the grey-Markov model is better than that of grey model in forecasting road accidents.
Bayesian Modelling of fMRI Time Series
Højen-Sørensen, Pedro; Hansen, Lars Kai; Rasmussen, Carl Edward
2000-01-01
We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial fMRI activation experiments with blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte...
Bayesian Modelling of fMRI Time Series
Højen-Sørensen, Pedro; Hansen, Lars Kai; Rasmussen, Carl Edward
We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial fMRI activation experiments with blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte...
Nonuniform Markov Geometric Measures
Neunhäuserer, J.
2015-01-01
We generalize results of Fan and Zhang [6] on absolute continuity and singularity of the golden Markov geometric series to nonuniform stochastic series given by arbitrary Markov process. In addition we describe an application of these results in fractal geometry.
A Bayesian test for periodic signals in red noise
Vaughan, S
2009-01-01
Many astrophysical sources, especially compact accreting sources, show strong, random brightness fluctuations with broad power spectra in addition to periodic or quasi-periodic oscillations (QPOs) that have narrower spectra. The random nature of the dominant source of variance greatly complicates the process of searching for possible weak periodic signals. We have addressed this problem using the tools of Bayesian statistics; in particular using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques to approximate the posterior distribution of model parameters, and posterior predictive model checking to assess model fits and search for periodogram outliers that may represent periodic signals. The methods developed are applied to two example datasets, both long XMM-Newton observations of highly variable Seyfert 1 galaxies: RE J1034+396 and Mrk 766. In both cases a bend (or break) in the power spectrum is evident. In the case of RE J1034+396 the previously reported QPO is found but with somewhat weaker statistical significance th...
Quantum Markov fields on graphs
Accardi, Luigi; Ohno, Hiromichi; Mukhamedov, Farrukh
2009-01-01
We introduce generalized quantum Markov states and generalized d-Markov chains which extend the notion quantum Markov chains on spin systems to that on $C^*$-algebras defined by general graphs. As examples of generalized d-Markov chains, we construct the entangled Markov fields on tree graphs. The concrete examples of generalized d-Markov chains on Cayley trees are also investigated.
Markov processes for stochastic modeling
Ibe, Oliver
2008-01-01
Markov processes are used to model systems with limited memory. They are used in many areas including communications systems, transportation networks, image segmentation and analysis, biological systems and DNA sequence analysis, random atomic motion and diffusion in physics, social mobility, population studies, epidemiology, animal and insect migration, queueing systems, resource management, dams, financial engineering, actuarial science, and decision systems. This book, which is written for upper level undergraduate and graduate students, and researchers, presents a unified presentat
A unified Bayesian hierarchical model for MRI tissue classification.
Feng, Dai; Liang, Dong; Tierney, Luke
2014-04-15
Various works have used magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) tissue classification extensively to study a number of neurological and psychiatric disorders. Various noise characteristics and other artifacts make this classification a challenging task. Instead of splitting the procedure into different steps, we extend a previous work to develop a unified Bayesian hierarchical model, which addresses both the partial volume effect and intensity non-uniformity, the two major acquisition artifacts, simultaneously. We adopted a normal mixture model with the means and variances depending on the tissue types of voxels to model the observed intensity values. We modeled the relationship among the components of the index vector of tissue types by a hidden Markov model, which captures the spatial similarity of voxels. Furthermore, we addressed the partial volume effect by construction of a higher resolution image in which each voxel is divided into subvoxels. Finally, We achieved the bias field correction by using a Gaussian Markov random field model with a band precision matrix designed in light of image filtering. Sparse matrix methods and parallel computations based on conditional independence are exploited to improve the speed of the Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. The unified model provides more accurate tissue classification results for both simulated and real data sets. PMID:24738112
Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter
无
2005-01-01
For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.
Bayesian approach to rough set
Marwala, Tshilidzi
2007-01-01
This paper proposes an approach to training rough set models using Bayesian framework trained using Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. The prior probabilities are constructed from the prior knowledge that good rough set models have fewer rules. Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling is conducted through sampling in the rough set granule space and Metropolis algorithm is used as an acceptance criteria. The proposed method is tested to estimate the risk of HIV given demographic data. The results obtained shows that the proposed approach is able to achieve an average accuracy of 58% with the accuracy varying up to 66%. In addition the Bayesian rough set give the probabilities of the estimated HIV status as well as the linguistic rules describing how the demographic parameters drive the risk of HIV.
Bayesian regularisation methods in a hybrid MLP-HMM system.
Renals, Steve; MacKay, David
1993-01-01
We have applied Bayesian regularisation methods to multi-layer percepuon (MLP) training in the context of a hybrid MLP-HMM (hidden Markov model) continuous speech recognition system. The Bayesian framework adopted here allows an objective setting of the regularisation parameters, according to the training data. Experiments have been carried out on the ARPA Resource Management database.
Chain ladder method: Bayesian bootstrap versus classical bootstrap
Peters, Gareth W.; Mario V. W\\"uthrich; Shevchenko, Pavel V.
2010-01-01
The intention of this paper is to estimate a Bayesian distribution-free chain ladder (DFCL) model using approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methodology. We demonstrate how to estimate quantities of interest in claims reserving and compare the estimates to those obtained from classical and credibility approaches. In this context, a novel numerical procedure utilising Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC), ABC and a Bayesian bootstrap procedure was developed in a truly distribution-free setting. T...
林达; 徐新; 潘雪峰; 张海涛
2014-01-01
提出了一种新的MSTAR SAR图像分割方法.该方法首先根据地物的散射机制进行属性散射中心(attributed scattering centers,ASC)特征提取,构造属性散射中心特征向量;然后使用马尔科夫随机场(Markov random field,MRF)结合属性散射中心特征对MSTAR SAR图像进行空间邻城关系描述;最后运用标号代价能量优化算法得到最终的分割结果.MSTAR SAR数据上的实验结果证明了其有效性.
Markov Model Applied to Gene Evolution
季星来; 孙之荣
2001-01-01
The study of nucleotide substitution is very important both to our understanding of gene evolution and to reliable estimation of phylogenetic relationships. In this paper nucleotide substitution is assumed to be random and the Markov model is applied to the study of the evolution of genes. Then a non-linear optimization approach is proposed for estimating substitution in real sequences. This substitution is called the "Nucleotide State Transfer Matrix". One of the most important conclusions from this work is that gene sequence evolution conforms to the Markov process. Also, some theoretical evidences for random evolution are given from energy analysis of DNA replication.
Bayesian theory and applications
Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A
2013-01-01
The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...
FIRAT, Mehmet Ziya
2001-01-01
The main environmental effects in a mixed model are comparison or contemporary group effects or more precisely herd-year-month of calving subclass effects. The controversial subject of much discussion about the choice between treating contemporary group effects as fixed or as random has not still been settled in dairy cow evaluation. However, these effects are usually treated as fixed since nonrandom associations between sires and herds may lead to biased predictions if herd-year-month effect...
Time series segmentation with shifting means hidden markov models
Ath. Kehagias
2006-01-01
Full Text Available We present a new family of hidden Markov models and apply these to the segmentation of hydrological and environmental time series. The proposed hidden Markov models have a discrete state space and their structure is inspired from the shifting means models introduced by Chernoff and Zacks and by Salas and Boes. An estimation method inspired from the EM algorithm is proposed, and we show that it can accurately identify multiple change-points in a time series. We also show that the solution obtained using this algorithm can serve as a starting point for a Monte-Carlo Markov chain Bayesian estimation method, thus reducing the computing time needed for the Markov chain to converge to a stationary distribution.