Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Gunnison, Colorado

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-12-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site Near Gunnison, Colorado evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site are being placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating groundwater contamination. This is the second risk assessment of groundwater contamination at this site. The first risk assessment was performed primarily to evaluate existing domestic wells. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated monitor wells at the processing site. It will be used to assist in determining what remedial action is needed for contaminated groundwater at the site after the tailings are relocated. This risk assessment follows an approach outlined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The first step is to evaluate groundwater data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the main contaminants in the groundwater are cadmium, cobalt, iron, manganese, sulfate, uranium, and some of the products of radioactive decay of uranium.

Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Gunnison, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-12-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment of Groundwater Contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site Near Gunnison, Colorado evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site are being placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating groundwater contamination. This is the second risk assessment of groundwater contamination at this site. The first risk assessment was performed primarily to evaluate existing domestic wells. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated monitor wells at the processing site. It will be used to assist in determining what remedial action is needed for contaminated groundwater at the site after the tailings are relocated. This risk assessment follows an approach outlined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The first step is to evaluate groundwater data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the main contaminants in the groundwater are cadmium, cobalt, iron, manganese, sulfate, uranium, and some of the products of radioactive decay of uranium

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-03-01

This methodology has been developed to prepare human health and environmental evaluations of risk as part of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act remedial investigations (RIs) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act facility investigations (FIs) performed at the Hanford Site pursuant to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order referred to as the Tri-Party Agreement. Development of the methodology has been undertaken so that Hanford Site risk assessments are consistent with current regulations and guidance, while providing direction on flexible, ambiguous, or undefined aspects of the guidance. The methodology identifies Site-specific risk assessment considerations and integrates them with approaches for evaluating human and environmental risk that can be factored into the risk assessment program supporting the Hanford Site cleanup mission. Consequently, the methodology will enhance the preparation and review of individual risk assessments at the Hanford Site.

Hanford Site baseline risk assessment methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-03-01

This report describes risk assessment methodology associated with the remedial action programs at the Hanford Reservation. Topics addressed include human health evaluation, pollutant and radionuclide transport through the environment, and environmental transport pathways

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings sites near Slick Rock, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-11-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings sites near Slick Rock, Colorado, evaluates potential public health and environmental impacts resulting from ground water contamination at the former North Continent (NC) and Union Carbide (UC) uranium mill processing sites. The tailings at these sites will be placed in a disposal cell at the proposed Burro Canyon, Colorado, site. The US Department of Energy (DOE) anticipates the start of the first phase remedial action by the spring of 1995 under the direction of the DOE's Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The second phase of the UMTRA Project will evaluate ground water contamination. This baseline risk assessment is the first site-specific document for these sites under the Ground Water Project. It will help determine the compliance strategy for contaminated ground water at the site. In addition, surface water and sediment are qualitatively evaluated in this report

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings sites near Slick Rock, Colorado

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-11-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings sites near Slick Rock, Colorado, evaluates potential public health and environmental impacts resulting from ground water contamination at the former North Continent (NC) and Union Carbide (UC) uranium mill processing sites. The tailings at these sites will be placed in a disposal cell at the proposed Burro Canyon, Colorado, site. The US Department of Energy (DOE) anticipates the start of the first phase remedial action by the spring of 1995 under the direction of the DOE`s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The second phase of the UMTRA Project will evaluate ground water contamination. This baseline risk assessment is the first site-specific document for these sites under the Ground Water Project. It will help determine the compliance strategy for contaminated ground water at the site. In addition, surface water and sediment are qualitatively evaluated in this report.

Strategy utilized for assessing baseline risks to human health from K-65 and metal oxide residues stored at the Fernald Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harmon, J.E.; Janke, R.C.

1995-01-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) site in southwestern Ohio. The 425-hectare site consists of a former 55-hectare Production Area, an adjacent Waste Storage Area and various support facilities. From 1952 until 1989, the FEMP processed uranium into metallic open-quotes feedclose quotes materials for other DOE facilities in the nation's defense program. In accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), the FEMP site is currently listed on the National Priorities List (NPL). To facilitate an expeditious cleanup effort, environmental issues associated with site cleanup are being managed under five operable units. This paper summarizes the risk assessment strategy employed to determine baseline human health risks associated with K-65 and metal oxide residues currently stored in Operable Unit 4. The K-65 and metal oxide residues were generated during the 1950s as a result of the extraction of uranium from uranium-bearing ores and concentrates. These residues are currently stored within Operable Unit 4 in concrete silos. Silos I and 2 contain approximately 6,120 cubic meters [m 3 ] (8,005 cubic yards [yd 3 ]) of K-65 residues, while silos 3 contains approximately 3890 m 3 (5,080 yd 3 ) of cold metal oxides. These concrete silos are beyond their design life and require remedial action. The risk assessment conducted for Operable Unit 4 constitutes the first detailed human health risk assessment to be approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the CERCLA clean-up effort at the FEMP Site. This paper discusses the FEMP's use of a Risk Information Quality Objective process in concert with the traditional risk assessment approach to determine baseline risk to human health and the environment posed by Operable Unit 4. A summary of the baseline risks to human health is also presented

Do Ontarians drink in moderation? a baseline assessment against Canadian low risk drinking guidelines.

Science.gov (United States)

Bondy, S J; Ashley, M J; Rehm, J T; Walsh, G

1999-01-01

We used the 1997 Ontario Drug Monitor, a population-based, random-digit dialing survey of 2,776 adults, to obtain a baseline assessment of alcohol drinking by Ontarians against the 1997 low-risk drinking guidelines of the Addiction Research Foundation and the Canadian Centre on Substance Abuse. Average weekly alcohol consumption and the frequency of exceeding the daily limit, estimated using the graduated frequency scale, were determined for the population overall, and by sex and age group (18-44 and 45+ years). Most Ontarians drank alcohol in a pattern associated with a low risk of health consequences. About 10% of women and 25% of men drank in a style associated with some increase in acute or long-term risk. Younger men were most likely to drink in a risky pattern. Most drinkers of middle age or older, for whom cardiovascular disease is a significant health risk, consumed alcohol in a pattern associated with cardiovascular benefit.

RCRA Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation Report with Baseline Risk Assessment for the Fire Department Hose Training Facility (904-113G)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Palmer, E. [Westinghouse Savannah River Company, AIKEN, SC (United States)

1997-04-01

This report documents the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA) Facility Investigation/Remedial Investigation/Baseline Risk Assessment (RFI/RI/BRA) for the Fire Department Hose Training Facility (FDTF) (904-113G).

Baseline risk assessment for groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Monument Valley, Arizona

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This baseline risk assessment evaluates potential impact to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site near Monument Valley, Arizona. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site are being relocated and stabilized in a disposal cell at Mexican Hat, Utah, through the US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The tailings removal is planned for completion by spring 1994. After the tailings are removed, groundwater contamination at the site will continue to be evaluated. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Groundwater Project. It will be used to assist in determining what remedial action is needed for contaminated groundwater at the site

Strategy utilized for assessing baseline risks to human health from K-65 and metal oxide residues stored at the Fernald Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Harmon, J.E. [FERMCO, Cincinnati, OH (United States). Fernald Environmental Management Project; Janke, R.C.

1995-04-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at the Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP) site in southwestern Ohio. The 425-hectare site consists of a former 55-hectare Production Area, an adjacent Waste Storage Area and various support facilities. From 1952 until 1989, the FEMP processed uranium into metallic {open_quotes}feed{close_quotes} materials for other DOE facilities in the nation`s defense program. In accordance with the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation and Liability Act (CERCLA), the FEMP site is currently listed on the National Priorities List (NPL). To facilitate an expeditious cleanup effort, environmental issues associated with site cleanup are being managed under five operable units. This paper summarizes the risk assessment strategy employed to determine baseline human health risks associated with K-65 and metal oxide residues currently stored in Operable Unit 4. The K-65 and metal oxide residues were generated during the 1950s as a result of the extraction of uranium from uranium-bearing ores and concentrates. These residues are currently stored within Operable Unit 4 in concrete silos. Silos I and 2 contain approximately 6,120 cubic meters [m{sup 3}] (8,005 cubic yards [yd{sup 3}]) of K-65 residues, while silos 3 contains approximately 3890 m{sup 3} (5,080 yd{sup 3}) of cold metal oxides. These concrete silos are beyond their design life and require remedial action. The risk assessment conducted for Operable Unit 4 constitutes the first detailed human health risk assessment to be approved by the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the CERCLA clean-up effort at the FEMP Site. This paper discusses the FEMP`s use of a Risk Information Quality Objective process in concert with the traditional risk assessment approach to determine baseline risk to human health and the environment posed by Operable Unit 4. A summary of the baseline risks to human health is also presented.

Quadrant III RFI draft report: Appendix J, Baseline risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-12-01

In accordance with the Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund (U. S.EPA 1989), which states that background risk should be calculated separately from site-related risk in order to provide important information to the risk manager, this appendix assesses the human health risks associated with background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soil at the Portsmouth Gaseous Diffusion Plant (PORTS). This appendix is organized as follows: Background Conditions, in which the results of Geraghty ampersand Miller's work on characterizing background levels of naturally occurring compounds in soils is summarized; Identification of Exposure Pathways; Estimation of Environmental Concentrations; Estimation of Human Intake; Toxicity Assessment, and Risk Characterization, in which numerical estimates of carcinogenic and noncarcinogenic risk are calculated for each naturally occurring compound and potential exposure pathway

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Grand Junction, Colorado

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-06-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment of Ground Water Contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site Near Grand Junction, Colorado evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The remedial activities at the site were conducted from 1989 to 1993. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated ground water that flows beneath the processing site toward the Colorado River. The monitor wells that have consistently shown the highest concentrations of most contaminants are used to assess risk. This risk assessment will be used in conjunction with additional activities and documents to determine what remedial action may be needed for contaminated ground water at the site. This risk assessment follows an approach outlined by the EPA. the first step is to evaluate ground water data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the contaminants of potential concern in the ground water are arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, fluoride, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, sulfate, uranium, vanadium, zinc, and radium-226. The next step in the risk assessment is to estimate how much of these contaminants people would be exposed to if they drank from a well installed in the contaminated ground water at the former processing site.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Grand Junction, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-06-01

This Baseline Risk Assessment of Ground Water Contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site Near Grand Junction, Colorado evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The remedial activities at the site were conducted from 1989 to 1993. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated ground water that flows beneath the processing site toward the Colorado River. The monitor wells that have consistently shown the highest concentrations of most contaminants are used to assess risk. This risk assessment will be used in conjunction with additional activities and documents to determine what remedial action may be needed for contaminated ground water at the site. This risk assessment follows an approach outlined by the EPA. the first step is to evaluate ground water data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the contaminants of potential concern in the ground water are arsenic, cadmium, cobalt, fluoride, iron, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, sulfate, uranium, vanadium, zinc, and radium-226. The next step in the risk assessment is to estimate how much of these contaminants people would be exposed to if they drank from a well installed in the contaminated ground water at the former processing site

Baseline risk assessment for groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Monument Valley, Arizona. Draft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-09-01

This baseline risk assessment evaluates potential impact to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site near Monument Valley, Arizona. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site are being relocated and stabilized in a disposal cell at Mexican Hat, Utah, through the US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The tailings removal is planned for completion by spring 1994. After the tailings are removed, groundwater contamination at the site will continue to be evaluated. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Groundwater Project. It will be used to assist in determining what remedial action is needed for contaminated groundwater at the site.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site Salt Lake City, Utah

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-01

This baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Salt Lake City, Utah, evaluates potential public health or environmental impacts resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium ore processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell located at Clive, Utah, in 1987 by the US Department of Energy`s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The second phase of the UMTRA Project is to evaluate residual ground water contamination at the former uranium processing site, known as the Vitro processing site. This risk assessment is the first site-specific document under the Ground Water Project. It will help determine the appropriate remedial action for contaminated ground water at the site.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site Salt Lake City, Utah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

This baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Salt Lake City, Utah, evaluates potential public health or environmental impacts resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium ore processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell located at Clive, Utah, in 1987 by the US Department of Energy's Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The second phase of the UMTRA Project is to evaluate residual ground water contamination at the former uranium processing site, known as the Vitro processing site. This risk assessment is the first site-specific document under the Ground Water Project. It will help determine the appropriate remedial action for contaminated ground water at the site

Quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS)

Science.gov (United States)

Weinstock, Robert M (Inventor); Smidts, Carol S (Inventor); Mosleh, Ali (Inventor); Chang, Yung-Hsien (Inventor); Swaminathan, Sankaran (Inventor); Groen, Francisco J (Inventor); Tan, Zhibin (Inventor)

2001-01-01

A quantitative risk assessment system (QRAS) builds a risk model of a system for which risk of failure is being assessed, then analyzes the risk of the system corresponding to the risk model. The QRAS performs sensitivity analysis of the risk model by altering fundamental components and quantifications built into the risk model, then re-analyzes the risk of the system using the modifications. More particularly, the risk model is built by building a hierarchy, creating a mission timeline, quantifying failure modes, and building/editing event sequence diagrams. Multiplicities, dependencies, and redundancies of the system are included in the risk model. For analysis runs, a fixed baseline is first constructed and stored. This baseline contains the lowest level scenarios, preserved in event tree structure. The analysis runs, at any level of the hierarchy and below, access this baseline for risk quantitative computation as well as ranking of particular risks. A standalone Tool Box capability exists, allowing the user to store application programs within QRAS.

Baseline risk and marginal willingness to pay for health risk reduction.

Science.gov (United States)

Gerking, Shelby; Adamowicz, Wiktor; Dickie, Mark; Veronesi, Marcella

2017-01-01

Empirical results presented in this paper suggest that parents' marginal willingness to pay (MWTP) for a reduction in morbidity risk from heart disease is inversely related to baseline risk (i.e., the amount of risk initially faced) both for themselves and for their children. For instance, a 40% reduction from the mean of baseline risk results in an increase in MWTP by 70% or more. Thus, estimates of monetary benefits of public programs to reduce heart disease risk would be understated if the standard practice is followed of evaluating MWTP at initial risk levels and then multiplying this value by the number of cases avoided. Estimates are supported by: (1) unique quantitative information on perceptions of the risk of getting heart disease that allow baseline risk to be defined at an individual level and (2) improved econometric procedures to control for well-known difficulties associated with stated preference data.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Monument Valley Uranium Mill Tailings Site, Cane Valley, Arizona. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-08-01

This baseline risk assessment evaluates potential impact to public health or the environment from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site in Cane Valley near Monument Valley, Arizona. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has relocated and stabilized this site`s tailings and other contaminated material in a disposal cell at Mexican Hat, Utah. The second phase of the UMTRA Project is to evaluate ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project that evaluates potential health and environmental risks. It will help determine the approach required to address contaminated ground water at the site.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Monument Valley Uranium Mill Tailings Site, Cane Valley, Arizona. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-08-01

This baseline risk assessment evaluates potential impact to public health or the environment from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site in Cane Valley near Monument Valley, Arizona. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has relocated and stabilized this site's tailings and other contaminated material in a disposal cell at Mexican Hat, Utah. The second phase of the UMTRA Project is to evaluate ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project that evaluates potential health and environmental risks. It will help determine the approach required to address contaminated ground water at the site

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Belfield, North Dakota. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

This risk assessment evaluates the potential for impacts to public health or the environment from contaminated ground water at this site caused by the burning of coal containing uranium to produce uranium. Potential risk is quantified for constituents introduced from the processing activities and not for those constituents naturally occurring in background ground water in the site vicinity. Because background ground water quality has the potential to cause adverse health effects from exposure through drinking, any risks associated with contaminants attributable to site activities are incremental to these risks from background. The incremental risk from site-related contaminants is quantified in this risk assessment. The baseline risk from background water quality is incorporated only into the assessment of potential chemical interactions and the definition of the overall site condition. The US Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is developing plans to remedy soil and ground water contamination at the site. The UMTRA Surface Project consists of determining the extent of soil contamination and disposing of the contaminated soils in an engineered disposal cell. The UMTRA Ground Water Project consists of evaluating ground water contamination. Under the UMTRA Ground Water Project, results of this risk assessment will help determine what ground water compliance strategy may be applied at the site

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Shiprock, New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-04-01

This baseline risk assessment at the former uranium mill tailings site near Shiprock, New Mexico, evaluates the potential impact to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in an on-site disposal cell in 1986 through the US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. There are no domestic or drinking water wells in the contaminated ground water of the two distinct ground water units: the contaminated ground water in the San Juan River floodplain alluvium below the site and the contaminated ground water in the terrace alluvium area where the disposal cell is located. Because no one is drinking the affected ground water, there are currently no health or environmental risks directly associated with the contaminated ground water. However, there is a potential for humans, domestic animals, and wildlife to the exposed to surface expressions of ground water in the seeps and pools in the area of the San Juan River floodplain below the site. For these reasons, this risk assessment evaluates potential exposure to contaminated surface water and seeps as well as potential future use of contaminated ground water

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Canonsburg, Pennsylvania

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

This baseline risk assessment evaluates potential impacts to public health and the environment resulting from ground water contamination from past activities at the former uranium processing site in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. The US Department of Energy Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has placed contaminated material from this site in an on-site disposal cell. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the UMTRA Ground Water Project. Currently, no domestic or drinking water well tap into contaminated ground water of the two distinct ground water units: the unconsolidated materials and the bedrock. Because there is no access, no current health or environmental risks are associated with the direct use of the contaminated ground water. However, humans and ecological organisms could be exposed to contaminated ground water if a domestic well were to be installed in the unconsolidated materials in that part of the site being considered for public use (Area C). The first step is evaluating ground water data collected from monitor wells at the site. For the Canonsburg site, this evaluation showed the contaminants in ground water exceeding background in the unconsolidated materials in Area C are ammonia, boron, calcium, manganese, molybdenum, potassium, strontium, and uranium

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Canonsburg, Pennsylvania

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-01

This baseline risk assessment evaluates potential impacts to public health and the environment resulting from ground water contamination from past activities at the former uranium processing site in Canonsburg, Pennsylvania. The US Department of Energy Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has placed contaminated material from this site in an on-site disposal cell. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the UMTRA Ground Water Project. Currently, no domestic or drinking water well tap into contaminated ground water of the two distinct ground water units: the unconsolidated materials and the bedrock. Because there is no access, no current health or environmental risks are associated with the direct use of the contaminated ground water. However, humans and ecological organisms could be exposed to contaminated ground water if a domestic well were to be installed in the unconsolidated materials in that part of the site being considered for public use (Area C). The first step is evaluating ground water data collected from monitor wells at the site. For the Canonsburg site, this evaluation showed the contaminants in ground water exceeding background in the unconsolidated materials in Area C are ammonia, boron, calcium, manganese, molybdenum, potassium, strontium, and uranium.

Hanford waste vitrification systems risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, W.C.; Hamilton, D.W.; Holton, L.K.; Bailey, J.W.

1991-09-01

A systematic Risk Assessment was performed to identify the technical, regulatory, and programmatic uncertainties and to quantify the risks to the Hanford Site double-shell tank waste vitrification program baseline (as defined in December 1990). Mitigating strategies to reduce the overall program risk were proposed. All major program elements were evaluated, including double-shell tank waste characterization, Tank Farms, retrieval, pretreatment, vitrification, and grouting. Computer-based techniques were used to quantify risks to proceeding with construction of the Hanford Waste Vitrification Plant on the present baseline schedule. Risks to the potential vitrification of single-shell tank wastes and cesium and strontium capsules were also assessed. 62 refs., 38 figs., 26 tabs

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Falls City, Texas: Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination of the uranium mill tailings site near Falls City, Texas, evaluates potential impact to public health and the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former Susquehanna Western, Inc. (SWI), uranium mill processing site. This document fulfills the following objectives: determine if the site presents immediate or potential future health risks, determine the need for interim institutional controls, serve as a key input to project planning and prioritization, and recommend future data collection efforts to more fully characterize risk. The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has begun its evaluation of ground water contamination at the Falls City site. This risk assessment is one of the first documents specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. The first step is to evaluate ground water data collected from monitor wells at or near the site. Evaluation of these data show the main contaminants in the Dilworth ground water are cadmium, cobalt, fluoride, iron, nickel, sulfate, and uranium. The data also show high levels of arsenic and manganese occur naturally in some areas.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Falls City, Texas: Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination of the uranium mill tailings site near Falls City, Texas, evaluates potential impact to public health and the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former Susquehanna Western, Inc. (SWI), uranium mill processing site. This document fulfills the following objectives: determine if the site presents immediate or potential future health risks, determine the need for interim institutional controls, serve as a key input to project planning and prioritization, and recommend future data collection efforts to more fully characterize risk. The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project has begun its evaluation of ground water contamination at the Falls City site. This risk assessment is one of the first documents specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. The first step is to evaluate ground water data collected from monitor wells at or near the site. Evaluation of these data show the main contaminants in the Dilworth ground water are cadmium, cobalt, fluoride, iron, nickel, sulfate, and uranium. The data also show high levels of arsenic and manganese occur naturally in some areas

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Bowman, North Dakota

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-11-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Bowman, North Dakota, evaluates the potential impacts to public health or the environment from contaminated ground water at this site. This contamination is a result of the uraniferous lignite ashing process, when coal containing uranium was burned to produce uranium. Potential risk is quantified only for constituents introduced by the processing activities and not for the constituents naturally occurring in background ground water in the site vicinity. Background ground water, separate from any site-related contamination, imposes a percentage of the overall risk from ground water ingestion in the Bowman site vicinity. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is developing plans to address soil and ground water contamination at the site. The UMTRA Surface Project involves the determination of the extent of soil contamination and design of an engineered disposal cell for long-term storage of contaminated materials. The UMTRA Ground Water Project evaluates ground water contamination. Based on results from future site monitoring activities as defined in the site observational work plan and results from this risk assessment, the DOE will propose an approach for managing contaminated ground water at the Bowman site.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Bowman, North Dakota

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-11-01

This baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the inactive uraniferous lignite ashing site near Bowman, North Dakota, evaluates the potential impacts to public health or the environment from contaminated ground water at this site. This contamination is a result of the uraniferous lignite ashing process, when coal containing uranium was burned to produce uranium. Potential risk is quantified only for constituents introduced by the processing activities and not for the constituents naturally occurring in background ground water in the site vicinity. Background ground water, separate from any site-related contamination, imposes a percentage of the overall risk from ground water ingestion in the Bowman site vicinity. The US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project is developing plans to address soil and ground water contamination at the site. The UMTRA Surface Project involves the determination of the extent of soil contamination and design of an engineered disposal cell for long-term storage of contaminated materials. The UMTRA Ground Water Project evaluates ground water contamination. Based on results from future site monitoring activities as defined in the site observational work plan and results from this risk assessment, the DOE will propose an approach for managing contaminated ground water at the Bowman site

Baseline disability in activities of daily living predicts dementia risk even after controlling for baseline global cognitive ability and depressive symptoms.

Science.gov (United States)

Fauth, Elizabeth B; Schwartz, Sarah; Tschanz, Joann T; Østbye, Truls; Corcoran, Christopher; Norton, Maria C

2013-06-01

Late-life disability in activities of daily living (ADL) is theorized to be driven by underlying cognitive and/or physical impairment, interacting with psychological and environmental factors. Although we expect that cognitive deficits would explain associations between ADL disability and dementia risk, the current study examined ADL as a predictor of future dementia after controlling for global cognitive status. The population-based Cache County Memory Study (N = 3547) assessed individuals in four triennial waves (average age 74.9 years, years of education 13.36 years; 57.9% were women). Cox proportional hazards regression models assessed whether baseline ADL disability (presence of 2+ Instrumental ADL and/or 1+ Personal ADL) predicted incident dementia after controlling for APOE status, gender, age, baseline cognitive ability (Modified Mini-mental State Exam, 3MS-R; adjusted for education level), and baseline depressive symptoms (Diagnostic Interview Schedule). Over the course of study, 571 cases of incident dementia were identified through in-depth cognitive assessment, ending in expert consensus diagnosis. Results from Cox models suggest that ADL disability is a statistically significant predictor of incident dementia (adjusted hazard ratio = 1.83, p controlling for covariates. Findings suggest that ADL disability offers unique contributions in risk for incident dementia, even after controlling for global cognitive status. We discuss how physical impairment and executive function may play important roles in this relationship, and how ADL is useful, not just a diagnostic tool at, or after dementia onset, but also as a risk factor for future dementia, even in individuals not impaired on global cognitive tests. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

49 CFR 192.921 - How is the baseline assessment to be conducted?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

...) PIPELINE AND HAZARDOUS MATERIALS SAFETY ADMINISTRATION, DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION (CONTINUED) PIPELINE SAFETY TRANSPORTATION OF NATURAL AND OTHER GAS BY PIPELINE: MINIMUM FEDERAL SAFETY STANDARDS Gas... the covered pipeline segments for the baseline assessment according to a risk analysis that considers...

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Shiprock, New Mexico. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-04-01

This baseline risk assessment at the former uranium mill tailings site near Shiprock, New Mexico, evaluates the potential impact to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in an on-site disposal cell in 1986 through the US Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Ground Water Project. There are no domestic or drinking water wells in the contaminated ground water of the two distinct ground water units: the contaminated ground water in the San Juan River floodplain alluvium below the site and the contaminated ground water in the terrace alluvium area where the disposal cell is located. Because no one is drinking the affected ground water, there are currently no health or environmental risks directly associated with the contaminated ground water. However, there is a potential for humans, domestic animals, and wildlife to the exposed to surface expressions of ground water in the seeps and pools in the area of the San Juan River floodplain below the site. For these reasons, this risk assessment evaluates potential exposure to contaminated surface water and seeps as well as potential future use of contaminated ground water.

Framework for ensuring appropriate maintenance of baseline PSA and risk monitor models in a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vrbanic, I.; Sorman, J.

2005-01-01

The necessity of observing both long term and short term risk changes many times imposes the need for a nuclear power plant to have a baseline PSA model to produce an estimate of long term averaged risk and a risk monitor to produce a time-dependent risk curve and/or safety functions status at points in time or over a shorter time period of interest. By nature, a baseline PSA reflects plant systems and operation in terms of average conditions and provides time-invariant quantitative risk metrics. Risk monitor, on the other hand, requires condition-specific modeling to produce a quantitative and/or qualitative estimate of plant's condition-specific risk metrics. While risk monitor is used for computing condition-specific risk metrics over time, a baseline PSA model is needed for variety of other risk oriented applications, such as assessments of proposed design modifications or risk ranking of equipment. Having in mind their importance and roles, it is essential that both models, i.e. baseline PSA model and risk monitor are maintained in the way that they represent, as accurately as practically achievable, the actual plant status (e.g. systems' design and plant's procedures in effect) and its history (e.g. numbers of equipment failures and demands that influence relevant PSA parameters). Paper discusses the requirements for appropriate maintenance of plant's baseline PSA model and risk monitor model and presents the framework for plant's engineering and administrative procedures that would ensure they are met. (author)

Caries risk assessment in young adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Twetman, Svante

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: To validate baseline caries risk classifications according to the Cariogram model with the actual caries development over a 3-year period in a group of young adults living in Sweden. METHODS: The study group consisted of 1,295 19-year-old patients that completed a comprehensive clinical...... baseline examination, including radiographs and salivary tests. An individual caries risk profile was computed and the patient was placed in one of five risk categories. After 3 years, 982 patients (75.8%) were re-examined and caries increment for each patient was calculated. The outcome was expressed...... as sensitivity, specificity and predictive values and compared with a risk assessment scheme used in Public Dental Service. RESULTS: The drop-outs displayed more risk factors and a significantly higher caries burden at baseline compared with those that remained in the project (p 

Caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mejàre, I; Axelsson, S; Dahlén, G

2014-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To assess the ability of multivariate models and single factors to correctly identify future caries development in pre-school children and schoolchildren/adolescents. STUDY DESIGN: A systematic literature search for relevant papers was conducted with pre-determined inclusion criteria...... predictors, baseline caries experience had moderate/good accuracy in pre-school children and limited accuracy in schoolchildren/adolescents. The period of highest risk for caries incidence in permanent teeth was the first few years after tooth eruption. In general, the quality of evidence was limited....... CONCLUSIONS: Multivariate models and baseline caries prevalence performed better in pre-school children than in schoolchildren/adolescents. Baseline caries prevalence was the most accurate single predictor in all age groups. The heterogeneity of populations, models, outcome criteria, measures and reporting...

Extinctions. Paleontological baselines for evaluating extinction risk in the modern oceans.

Science.gov (United States)

Finnegan, Seth; Anderson, Sean C; Harnik, Paul G; Simpson, Carl; Tittensor, Derek P; Byrnes, Jarrett E; Finkel, Zoe V; Lindberg, David R; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Lockwood, Rowan; Lotze, Heike K; McClain, Craig R; McGuire, Jenny L; O'Dea, Aaron; Pandolfi, John M

2015-05-01

Marine taxa are threatened by anthropogenic impacts, but knowledge of their extinction vulnerabilities is limited. The fossil record provides rich information on past extinctions that can help predict biotic responses. We show that over 23 million years, taxonomic membership and geographic range size consistently explain a large proportion of extinction risk variation in six major taxonomic groups. We assess intrinsic risk-extinction risk predicted by paleontologically calibrated models-for modern genera in these groups. Mapping the geographic distribution of these genera identifies coastal biogeographic provinces where fauna with high intrinsic risk are strongly affected by human activity or climate change. Such regions are disproportionately in the tropics, raising the possibility that these ecosystems may be particularly vulnerable to future extinctions. Intrinsic risk provides a prehuman baseline for considering current threats to marine biodiversity. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.

A Randomized Trial of Genetic and Environmental Risk Assessment (GERA) for Colorectal Cancer Risk in Primary Care: Trial Design and Baseline Findings

Science.gov (United States)

Myers, Ronald E.; Manne, Sharon L.; Wilfond, Benjamin; Sifri, Randa; Ziring, Barry; Wolf, Thomas A.; Cocroft, James; Ueland, Amy; Petrich, Anett; Swan, Heidi; DiCarlo, Melissa; Weinberg, David S.

2010-01-01

Purpose This paper describes an ongoing randomized controlled trial designed to assess the impact of genetic and environmental risk assessment (GERA) on colorectal cancer (CRC) screening. Methods The trial includes asymptomatic patients who are 50-79 years and are not up-to-date with CRC screening guidelines. Patients who responded to a baseline telephone survey are randomized to a GERA or Control group. GERA Group participants meet with a nurse, decide whether to have a GERA blood test (a combination of genetic polymorphism and folate), and, if tested, receive GERA feedback. Follow-up telephone surveys are conducted at one and six months. A chart audit is performed at six months. Results Of 2,223 eligible patients, 562 (25%) have enrolled. Patients who enrolled in the study were significantly younger than those who did not (p<0.001). Participants tended to be 50-59 years (64%), female (58%), white (52%), married (51%), and have more than a high school education (67%). At baseline, most participants had some knowledge of CRC screening and GERA, viewed CRC screening favorably, and reported that they had decided to do screening. Almost half had worries and concerns about CRC. Conclusions One in four eligible primary care patients enrolled in the study. Age was negatively associated with enrollment. Prospective analyses using data for all participants will provide more definitive information on GERA uptake and the impact of GERA feedback. PMID:20828635

Pakistan, Sindh Province - Baseline Indicators System : Baseline Procurement Performance Assessment Report

OpenAIRE

World Bank

2009-01-01

This document provides an assessment of the public procurement system in Sindh province using the baseline indicators system developed by the Development Assistance Committee of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD-DAC). This assessment, interviews and discussions were held with stakeholders from the public and private sectors as well as civil society. Developing...

TAPIR--Finnish national geochemical baseline database.

Science.gov (United States)

Jarva, Jaana; Tarvainen, Timo; Reinikainen, Jussi; Eklund, Mikael

2010-09-15

In Finland, a Government Decree on the Assessment of Soil Contamination and Remediation Needs has generated a need for reliable and readily accessible data on geochemical baseline concentrations in Finnish soils. According to the Decree, baseline concentrations, referring both to the natural geological background concentrations and the diffuse anthropogenic input of substances, shall be taken into account in the soil contamination assessment process. This baseline information is provided in a national geochemical baseline database, TAPIR, that is publicly available via the Internet. Geochemical provinces with elevated baseline concentrations were delineated to provide regional geochemical baseline values. The nationwide geochemical datasets were used to divide Finland into geochemical provinces. Several metals (Co, Cr, Cu, Ni, V, and Zn) showed anomalous concentrations in seven regions that were defined as metal provinces. Arsenic did not follow a similar distribution to any other elements, and four arsenic provinces were separately determined. Nationwide geochemical datasets were not available for some other important elements such as Cd and Pb. Although these elements are included in the TAPIR system, their distribution does not necessarily follow the ones pre-defined for metal and arsenic provinces. Regional geochemical baseline values, presented as upper limit of geochemical variation within the region, can be used as trigger values to assess potential soil contamination. Baseline values have also been used to determine upper and lower guideline values that must be taken into account as a tool in basic risk assessment. If regional geochemical baseline values are available, the national guideline values prescribed in the Decree based on ecological risks can be modified accordingly. The national geochemical baseline database provides scientifically sound, easily accessible and generally accepted information on the baseline values, and it can be used in various

Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Gunnison, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-04-01

This report evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site are being placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating groundwater contamination. This is the second risk assessment of groundwater contamination at this site. The first risk assessment was performed primarily to evaluate existing domestic wells to determine the potential for immediate human health and environmental impacts. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated groundwater that flows beneath the processing site towards the Gunnison River. The monitor wells that have consistently shown the highest concentration of most contaminants are used in this risk assessment. This risk assessment will be used in conjunction with additional activities and documents to assist in determining what remedial action is needed for contaminated groundwater at the site after the tailings are relocated. This risk assessment follows an approach outlined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The first step is to evaluate groundwater data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the main contaminants in the groundwater are cadmium, cobalt, iron, manganese, sulfate, uranium, and some of the products of radioactive decay of uranium

Baseline dietary glutamic acid intake and the risk of colorectal cancer: The Rotterdam study.

Science.gov (United States)

Viana Veloso, Gilson G; Franco, Oscar H; Ruiter, Rikje; de Keyser, Catherina E; Hofman, Albert; Stricker, Bruno C; Kiefte-de Jong, Jessica C

2016-03-15

Animal studies have shown that glutamine supplementation may decrease colon carcinogenesis, but any relation with glutamine or its precursors has not been studied in humans. The primary aim of this study was to assess whether dietary glutamic acid intake was associated with colorectal cancer (CRC) risk in community-dwelling adults. A secondary aim was to evaluate whether the association could be modified by the body mass index (BMI). This study was embedded in the Rotterdam study, which included a prospective cohort from 1990 onward that consisted of 5362 subjects who were 55 years old or older and were free of CRC at the baseline. Glutamic acid was calculated as a percentage of the total protein intake with a validated food frequency questionnaire at the baseline. Incident cases of CRC were pathology-based. During follow-up, 242 subjects developed CRC. Baseline dietary glutamic acid intake was significantly associated with a lower risk of developing CRC (hazard ratio [HR] per percent increase in glutamic acid of protein, 0.78; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.62-0.99). After stratification for BMI, the risk reduction for CRC by dietary glutamic acid was 42% for participants with a BMI ≤ 25 kg/m(2) (HR per percent increase in glutamic acid of protein, 0.58; 95% CI, 0.40-0.85), whereas no association was found in participants with a BMI > 25 kg/m(2) (HR per percent increase in glutamic acid of protein, 0.97; 95% CI, 0.73-1.31). Our data suggest that baseline dietary glutamic acid intake is associated with a lower risk of developing CRC, but this association may be mainly present in nonoverweight subjects. © 2015 American Cancer Society.

An assessment of baseline ecological risks at the Fernald Environmental Management Project, Fernald, Ohio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duke, C.S.; Meyers-Schone, L.; Glum, S.R.; Quaider, W.

1991-01-01

The Fernald Environmental Management Project (FEMP), formerly the Feed Materials Production Center (FMPC), is a Department of Energy (DOE) facility located near Cincinnati, Ohio, which produced pure uranium metals from the early 1950s until 1989. DOE is currently conducting a Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study (RI/FS) under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), in order to remediate environmental impacts at the site. DOE is also preparing an environmental impact statement under the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) to evaluate environmental impacts of proposed remedial actions. Both CERCLA and NEPA require evaluation of ecological risks of baseline conditions and proposed remedial actions. A preliminary assessment of ecological risks examined the potential effects of FEMP contaminants in one operable unit (OU) at the site, OU5, Environmental Media. Radionuclides of potential concern in OU5 soils include uranium, cesium, radium, strontium, technetium, and thorium. Chemicals detected in terrestrial organisms include aluminum, arsenic, barium, cadmium, lead, mercury, vanadium, and zinc, as well as radionuclides. Chemicals of potential concern in surface water include a variety of metals as well as uranium and technetium. Radionuclides in OU5 do not appear to pose a hazard to terrestrial organisms. Estimated radiation doses to aquatic organisms continually exposed to the maximum uranium concentrations observed in on-property drainages ranged from 40 to 4000 rad per year. However, off-property radionuclide concentrations are very low, and it is unlikely that organisms in streams adjacent to the FEMP are exposed to toxic levels. Maximum arsenic levels in vegetation collected from the FEMP are consistent with values reported in the literature to be toxic to certain plants. However, signs of stress have not been observed in vegetation on or adjacent to the FEMP

Blood pressure variability and risk of cardiovascular events and death in patients with hypertension and different baseline risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Mehlum, Maria H; Liestøl, Knut; Kjeldsen, Sverre E; Julius, Stevo; Hua, Tsushung A; Rothwell, Peter M; Mancia, Giuseppe; Parati, Gianfranco; Weber, Michael A; Berge, Eivind

2018-01-20

Blood pressure variability is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events, particularly in high-risk patients. We assessed if variability was associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events and death in hypertensive patients at different risk levels. The Valsartan Antihypertensive Long-term Use Evaluation trial was a randomized controlled trial of valsartan vs. amlodipine in patients with hypertension and different risks of cardiovascular events, followed for a mean of 4.2 years. We calculated standard deviation (SD) of mean systolic blood pressure from visits from 6 months onward in patients with ≥3 visits and no events during the first 6 months. We compared the risk of cardiovascular events in the highest and lowest quintile of visit-to-visit blood pressure variability, using Cox regression. For analysis of death, variability was analysed as a continuous variable. Of 13 803 patients included, 1557 (11.3%) had a cardiovascular event and 1089 (7.9%) died. Patients in the highest quintile of SD had an increased risk of cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) 2.1, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.7-2.4; P risk of death (HR 1.10, 95% CI 1.04-1.17; P = 0.002). Associations were stronger among younger patients and patients with lower systolic blood pressure, and similar between patients with different baseline risks, except for higher risk of death among patients with established cardiovascular disease. Higher visit-to-visit systolic blood pressure variability is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular events in patients with hypertension, irrespective of baseline risk of cardiovascular events. Associations were stronger in younger patients and in those with lower mean systolic blood pressure. Published on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology. All rights reserved. © The Author(s) 2018. For permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Advanced Test Reactor outage risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thatcher, T.A.; Atkinson, S.A.

1997-01-01

Beginning in 1997, risk assessment was performed for each Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) outage aiding the coordination of plant configuration and work activities (maintenance, construction projects, etc.) to minimize the risk of reactor fuel damage and to improve defense-in-depth. The risk assessment activities move beyond simply meeting Technical Safety Requirements to increase the awareness of risk sensitive configurations, to focus increased attention on the higher risk activities, and to seek cost-effective design or operational changes that reduce risk. A detailed probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) had been performed to assess the risk of fuel damage during shutdown operations including heavy load handling. This resulted in several design changes to improve safety; however, evaluation of individual outages had not been performed previously and many risk insights were not being utilized in outage planning. The shutdown PRA provided the necessary framework for assessing relative and absolute risk levels and assessing defense-in-depth. Guidelines were written identifying combinations of equipment outages to avoid. Screening criteria were developed for the selection of work activities to receive review. Tabulation of inherent and work-related initiating events and their relative risk level versus plant mode has aided identification of the risk level the scheduled work involves. Preoutage reviews are conducted and post-outage risk assessment is documented to summarize the positive and negative aspects of the outage with regard to risk. The risk for the outage is compared to the risk level that would result from optimal scheduling of the work to be performed and to baseline or average past performance

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-02-01

This risk assessment evaluates the possibility of health and environmental risks from contaminated ground water at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado. The former uranium processing site's contaminated soil and material were removed and placed at a disposal site located in Body Canyon, Colorado, during 1986--1991 by the US Departments of Energy's Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating the nature and extent of ground water contamination at the site. This risk assessment follows an approach similar to that used by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The first step is to determine what site-related contaminants are found in ground water samples. The next step in the risk assessment is to determine how much of these contaminants people might ingest if they got their drinking water from a well on the site. In accordance with standard practice for this type of risk assessment, the highest contaminant concentrations from the most contaminated wells are used. The risk assessment then explains the possible health problems that could result from this amount of contamination

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1995-02-01

This risk assessment evaluates the possibility of health and environmental risks from contaminated ground water at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado. The former uranium processing site`s contaminated soil and material were removed and placed at a disposal site located in Body Canyon, Colorado, during 1986--1991 by the US Departments of Energy`s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating the nature and extent of ground water contamination at the site. This risk assessment follows an approach similar to that used by the US Environmental Protection Agency. The first step is to determine what site-related contaminants are found in ground water samples. The next step in the risk assessment is to determine how much of these contaminants people might ingest if they got their drinking water from a well on the site. In accordance with standard practice for this type of risk assessment, the highest contaminant concentrations from the most contaminated wells are used. The risk assessment then explains the possible health problems that could result from this amount of contamination.

Engineering Risk Assessment of Space Thruster Challenge Problem

Science.gov (United States)

Mathias, Donovan L.; Mattenberger, Christopher J.; Go, Susie

2014-01-01

The Engineering Risk Assessment (ERA) team at NASA Ames Research Center utilizes dynamic models with linked physics-of-failure analyses to produce quantitative risk assessments of space exploration missions. This paper applies the ERA approach to the baseline and extended versions of the PSAM Space Thruster Challenge Problem, which investigates mission risk for a deep space ion propulsion system with time-varying thruster requirements and operations schedules. The dynamic mission is modeled using a combination of discrete and continuous-time reliability elements within the commercially available GoldSim software. Loss-of-mission (LOM) probability results are generated via Monte Carlo sampling performed by the integrated model. Model convergence studies are presented to illustrate the sensitivity of integrated LOM results to the number of Monte Carlo trials. A deterministic risk model was also built for the three baseline and extended missions using the Ames Reliability Tool (ART), and results are compared to the simulation results to evaluate the relative importance of mission dynamics. The ART model did a reasonable job of matching the simulation models for the baseline case, while a hybrid approach using offline dynamic models was required for the extended missions. This study highlighted that state-of-the-art techniques can adequately adapt to a range of dynamic problems.

Innovative human health and ecological risk assessment techniques at Hanford

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clarke, S.; Jones, K.; Goller, E.

1993-01-01

The open-quotes Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodologyclose quotes (HSBRAM) was developed to enhance the preparation of risk assessments supporting the Hanford site cleanup mission. This methodology satisfies a Hanford federal facility agreement and consent order (tri-party agreement) milestone and is used to evaluate the risk to human health and the environment under the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) and the Resource Conservation and Recovery Act (RCRA). The methodology was prepared by the Hanford Risk Assessment Committee (RAC) consisting of tri-party representatives: the U.S. Department of Energy, the State of Washington Department of Ecology, and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), with associated contractors. The risk assessment guidance provided by EPA is sufficiently general to permit tailoring of specific parameters to meet the risk assessment needs of individual sites. The RAC utilized EPA's Risk Assessment Guidance for Superfund, (RAGS) as the cornerstone of the HSBRAM. The RAC added necessary Hanford-specific elements to construct a complete risk assessment guidance for utilization as an independent document. The HSBRAM is a living document because the RAC charter emphasizes the importance of continued methodology reevaluation. The HSBRAM also provides guidelines for the application of EPA's open-quotes Framework for Ecological Risk Assessmentclose quotes to Hanford-specific environmental baseline risk assessments by including endangered and threatened species in addition to sensitive habitats potentially associated with the Hanford site and guidance for selection of ecotoxicological data. Separate negotiations for the selection of risk parameters for each operable unit were avoided by defining parameters in the HSBRAM. There are 78 past-practice operable units at Hanford requiring risk assessments

Integrating risk management into the baselining process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jennett, N.; Tonkinson, A.

1994-01-01

These processes work together in building the project (comprised of the technical, schedule, and cost baselines) against which performance is measured and changes to the scope, schedule and cost of a project are managed and controlled. Risk analysis is often performed as the final element of the scheduling or estimating processes, a precursor to establishing cost and schedule contingency. However, best business practices dictate that information that may be crucial to the success of a project be analyzed and incorporated into project planning as soon as it is available and usable. The purpose or risk management is not to eliminate risk. Neither is it intended to suggest wholesale re-estimating and re-scheduling of a project. Rather, the intent is to make provisions to reduce and control the schedule and/or cost ramifications of risk by anticipating events and conditions that cannot be reliably planned for and which have the potential to negatively impact accomplishment of the technical objectives and requirements of the project

[The Octabaix study. Baseline assessment and 5 years of follow-up].

Science.gov (United States)

Ferrer, Assumpta; Formiga, Francesc; Padrós, Gloria; Badia, Teresa; Almeda, Jesús; Octabaix, Grupo Estudio

This is a review of a prospective, community-based study with a follow-up period of 5years. It is a study of 328 participants aged 85 at baseline, of which 62% were female, 53% widows, and a third of them living alone. High blood pressure was observed in 75.9%, dyslipidaemia in 51.2%, and diabetes in 17.7%. At baseline the median Barthel Index was 95, the Spanish version of the Mini-Mental State Examination was 28, the Charlson index 1, the Mini Nutritional Assessment 25, the Gijón test 10, the visual analogue scale of the Quality of Life Test was 60, and with a mean of 6.1 prescription drugs. A lower quality of life was also associated with female gender, a phenotype of frailty, heart failure, and a high level of social risk. At 5years of follow-up, the mortality rate was high, with 138 (42.1%) of the population sample dying at the end of the period. It represents an annual mortality rate of 8.4%. Thus, a common denominator of this review has been the high importance of functionality and overall comorbidity factors associated with mortality in this very old age group, compared to other more traditional factors in younger populations. Several studies of frailty have also been assessed in this group, as well as falls, nutritional risk, diabetes and successful aging, including important aspects to better understand this population group. Copyright © 2016 SEGG. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Emergency Response Capability Baseline Needs Assessment Compliance Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sharry, John A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2013-09-16

This document is the second of a two-part analysis of Emergency Response Capabilities of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The first part, 2013 Baseline Needs Assessment Requirements Document established the minimum performance criteria necessary to meet mandatory requirements. This second part analyses the performance of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory Emergency Management Department to the contents of the Requirements Document. The document was prepared based on an extensive review of information contained in the 2009 BNA, the 2012 BNA document, a review of Emergency Planning Hazards Assessments, a review of building construction, occupancy, fire protection features, dispatch records, LLNL alarm system records, fire department training records, and fire department policies and procedures.

Estimating baseline risks from biouptake and food ingestion at a contaminated site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonell, M.; Woytowich, K.; Blunt, D.; Picel, M.

1993-01-01

Biouptake of contaminants and subsequent human exposure via food ingestion represents a public concern at many contaminated sites. Site-specific measurements from plant and animal studies are usually quite limited, so this exposure pathway is often modeled to assess the potential for adverse health effects. A modeling tool was applied to evaluate baseline risks at a contaminated site in Missouri, and the results were used to confirm that ingestion of fish and game animals from the site area do not pose a human health threat. Results were also used to support the development of cleanup criteria for site soil

NASA Human System Risk Assessment Process

Science.gov (United States)

Francisco, D.; Romero, E.

2016-01-01

NASA utilizes an evidence based system to perform risk assessments for the human system for spaceflight missions. The center of this process is the multi-disciplinary Human System Risk Board (HSRB). The HSRB is chartered from the Chief Health and Medical Officer (OCHMO) at NASA Headquarters. The HSRB reviews all human system risks via an established comprehensive risk and configuration management plan based on a project management approach. The HSRB facilitates the integration of human research (terrestrial and spaceflight), medical operations, occupational surveillance, systems engineering and many other disciplines in a comprehensive review of human system risks. The HSRB considers all factors that influence human risk. These factors include pre-mission considerations such as screening criteria, training, age, sex, and physiological condition. In mission factors such as available countermeasures, mission duration and location and post mission factors such as time to return to baseline (reconditioning), post mission health screening, and available treatments. All of the factors influence the total risk assessment for each human risk. The HSRB performed a comprehensive review of all potential inflight medical conditions and events and over the course of several reviews consolidated the number of human system risks to 30, where the greatest emphasis is placed for investing program dollars for risk mitigation. The HSRB considers all available evidence from human research and, medical operations and occupational surveillance in assessing the risks for appropriate mitigation and future work. All applicable DRMs (low earth orbit for 6 and 12 months, deep space for 30 days and 1 year, a lunar mission for 1 year, and a planetary mission for 3 years) are considered as human system risks are modified by the hazards associated with space flight such as microgravity, exposure to radiation, distance from the earth, isolation and a closed environment. Each risk has a summary

When Things Are Not as They Appear: Assessing the Adequacy of Cluster Randomization When Outcome Events Are Rare at Baseline

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronica Dinaj-Koci

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The present study randomly assigned 15 Bahamian elementary schools to one of three intervention conditions. To assess the adequacy of cluster randomization, we examined two concerns identified by the local research team: inequality of gender distribution and environmental risk among groups. Baseline significant differences in risk and protective behaviors were minimal. There were significantly more males in the intervention group. Males had higher rates of risk behavior at all assessments. Poor school performance was also higher among the intervention condition and was significantly associated with increased rates of many but not all risk behaviors. Prior to adjusting for gender and school performance, several risk behaviors appeared to be higher after intervention among intervention youth. Adjusting for gender and school performance eradicated the group differences in risk behavior rates. Results demonstrate the importance of adequate randomization where outcomes of interest are rare events at baseline or differ by gender and there is an unequal gender distribution and the importance of the local research team’s knowledge of potential inequalities in environmental risk (i.e., school performance. Not considering such individual differences could impact the integrity of trial outcomes.

Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Gunnison, Colorado. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-04-01

This report evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site are being placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating groundwater contamination. This is the second risk assessment of groundwater contamination at this site. The first risk assessment was performed primarily to evaluate existing domestic wells to determine the potential for immediate human health and environmental impacts. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated groundwater that flows beneath the processing site towards the Gunnison River. The monitor wells that have consistently shown the highest concentration of most contaminants are used in this risk assessment. This risk assessment will be used in conjunction with additional activities and documents to assist in determining what remedial action is needed for contaminated groundwater at the site after the tailings are relocated. This risk assessment follows an approach outlined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The first step is to evaluate groundwater data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the main contaminants in the groundwater are cadmium, cobalt, iron, manganese, sulfate, uranium, and some of the products of radioactive decay of uranium.

Partial and No Recovery from Delirium in Older Hospitalized Adults: Frequency and Baseline Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Cole, Martin G; Bailey, Robert; Bonnycastle, Michael; McCusker, Jane; Fung, Shek; Ciampi, Antonio; Belzile, Eric; Bai, Chun

2015-11-01

To determine the frequency and baseline risk factors for partial and no recovery from delirium in older hospitalized adults. Cohort study with assessment of recovery status approximately 1 and 3 months after enrollment. University-affiliated, primary, acute-care hospital. Medical or surgical inpatients aged 65 and older with delirium (N = 278). The Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), Confusion Assessment Method (CAM), Delirium Index (DI), and activities of daily living (ADLs) were completed at enrollment and each follow-up. Primary outcome categories were full recovery (absence of CAM core symptoms of delirium), partial recovery (presence of ≥1 CAM core symptoms but not meeting criteria for delirium), no recovery (met CAM criteria for delirium), or death. Secondary outcomes were changes in MMSE, DI, and ADL scores between the baseline and last assessment. Potential risk factors included many clinical and laboratory variables. In participants with dementia, frequencies of full, partial, and no recovery and death at first follow-up were 6.3%, 11.3%, 74.6%, and 7.7%, respectively; in participants without dementia, frequencies were 14.3%, 17%, 50.9%, and 17.9%, respectively. In participants with dementia, frequencies at the second follow-up were 7.9%, 15.1%, 57.6%, and 19.4%, respectively; in participants without dementia, frequencies were 19.2%, 20.2%, 31.7%, and 28.8%, respectively. Frequencies were similar in participants with prevalent and incident delirium and in medical and surgical participants. The DI, MMSE, and ADL scores of many participants with partial and no recovery improved. Independent baseline risk factors for delirium persistence were chart diagnosis of dementia (odds ratio (OR) = 2.51, 95% confidence interval (CI) =1.38, 4.56), presence of any malignancy (OR = 5.79, 95% CI = 1.51, 22.19), and greater severity of delirium (OR =9.39, 95% CI = 3.95, 22.35). Delirium in many older hospitalized adults appears to be much more protracted than previously

Risk assessment guidance document for the UMTRA project groundwater remediation phase

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-05-01

The purpose of the groundwater remedial activities at the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) sites is to reduce, control, or eliminate risks to human health and the environment. This is in accordance with Subpart B of 40 CFR 192. According to this regulation, the need for groundwater restoration is based upon US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA)-defined groundwater cleanup standards and must be consistent with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) process. Risk assessments will be used in the UMTRA Groundwater Program to aid in the evaluation of sites. Risk assessments are conducted for four purposes: (1) Preliminary risk assessments are used to aid in prioritizing sites, scope data collection, end determine if a site presents immediate health risks. (2) Baseline risk assessments provide a comprehensive integration and interpretation of demographic, geographic, physical, chemical, and biological factors at a site to determine the extent of actual or potential harm. This information Is used to determine the need for remedial action. (3) Risk evaluation of remedial alternatives is performed to evaluate risks to humans or the environment associated with the various remedial strategies. (4) After remediation, an evaluation of residual risks is conducted. The information gathered for each of these risk evaluations is used to determine the need for subsequent evaluation. Several sites may be eliminated after a preliminary risk assessment if there is no current or future threat to humans or the environment. Likewise, much of the data from a baseline risk assessment can be used to support alternate concentration limits or supplemental standards demonstrations, or identify sensitive habitats or receptors that may be of concern in selecting a remedy

Baseline ecological risk assessment and remediation alternatives for a hydrocarbon-contaminated estuarine wetland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vedagiri, U.

1993-01-01

Prior to a property transaction, the groundwater at an industrial refinery site in New Jersey was found to be contaminated with a variety of petroleum-based organic compounds. The highly built-up site included an on-site estuarine wetland and was located in a developed, industrialized area near ecologically important estuarine marshes. A preliminary ecological risk assessment was developed on the basis of available data on site contamination and ecological resources. The onsite wetland and its user fauna were identified as the sensitive receptors of concern and the primary contaminant pathways wee identified. The ecological significance of the contamination was assessed with regard to the onsite wetland and in the context of its position within the landscape and surrounding land uses. The wetland exhibited a combination of impact and vitality, i.e., there were clearly visible signs of contaminant impact as well as a relatively complex and abundant food web. Because of its position within the developed landscape, the onsite wetland appeared to function as a refugium for wildlife despite the level of disturbance. The feasibility of achieving regulatory compliance through natural remediation was also examined with respect to the findings of the risk assessment and the resultant conclusions are discussed

Baseline risk assessment for exposure to contaminants at the St. Louis Site, St. Louis, Missouri

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-11-01

The St. Louis Site comprises three noncontiguous areas in and near St. Louis, Missouri: the St. Louis Downtown Site (SLDS), the St. Louis Airport Storage Site (SLAPS), and the Latty Avenue Properties. The main site of the Latty Avenue Properties includes the Hazelwood Interim Storage Site (HISS) and the Futura Coatings property, which are located at 9200 Latty Avenue. Contamination at the St. Louis Site is the result of uranium processing and disposal activities that took place from the 1940s through the 1970s. Uranium processing took place at the SLDS from 1942 through 1957. From the 1940s through the 1960s, SLAPS was used as a storage area for residues from the manufacturing operations at SLDS. The materials stored at SLAPS were bought by Continental Mining and Milling Company of Chicago, Illinois, in 1966, and moved to the HISS/Futura Coatings property at 9200 Latty Avenue. Vicinity properties became contaminated as a result of transport and movement of the contaminated material among SLDS, SLAPS, and the 9200 Latty Avenue property. This contamination led to the SLAPS, HISS, and Futura Coatings properties being placed on the National Priorities List (NPL) of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at the St. Louis Site under its Formerly Utilized Sites Remedial Action Program (FUSRAP). The primary goal of FUSRAP is the elimination of potential hazards to human health and the environment at former Manhattan Engineer District/Atomic Energy Commission (MED/AEC) sites so that, to the extent possible, these properties can be released for use without restrictions. To determine and establish cleanup goals for the St. Louis Site, DOE is currently preparing a remedial investigation/feasibility study-environmental impact statement (RI/FS-EIS). This baseline risk assessment (BRA) is a component of the process; it addresses potential risk to human health and the environment associated wi

Prediction of diabetes based on baseline metabolic characteristics in individuals at high risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Defronzo, Ralph A; Tripathy, Devjit; Schwenke, Dawn C; Banerji, Maryann; Bray, George A; Buchanan, Thomas A; Clement, Stephen C; Henry, Robert R; Kitabchi, Abbas E; Mudaliar, Sunder; Ratner, Robert E; Stentz, Frankie B; Musi, Nicolas; Reaven, Peter D; Gastaldelli, Amalia

2013-11-01

Individuals with impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) are at high risk for developing type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We examined which characteristics at baseline predicted the development of T2DM versus maintenance of IGT or conversion to normal glucose tolerance. We studied 228 subjects at high risk with IGT who received treatment with placebo in ACT NOW and who underwent baseline anthropometric measures and oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) at baseline and after a mean follow-up of 2.4 years. In a univariate analysis, 45 of 228 (19.7%) IGT individuals developed diabetes. After adjusting for age, sex, and center, increased fasting plasma glucose, 2-h plasma glucose, G0-120 during OGTT, HbA1c, adipocyte insulin resistance index, ln fasting plasma insulin, and ln I0-120, as well as family history of diabetes and presence of metabolic syndrome, were associated with increased risk of diabetes. At baseline, higher insulin secretion (ln [I0-120/G0-120]) during the OGTT was associated with decreased risk of diabetes. Higher β-cell function (insulin secretion/insulin resistance or disposition index; ln [I0-120/G0-120 × Matsuda index of insulin sensitivity]; odds ratio 0.11; P < 0.0001) was the variable most closely associated with reduced risk of diabetes. In a stepwise multiple-variable analysis, only HbA1c and β-cell function (ln insulin secretion/insulin resistance index) predicted the development of diabetes (r = 0.49; P < 0.0001).

Bioassay-based risk assessment of complex mixtures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Donnelly, K.C.; Huebner, H.J.

1996-01-01

The baseline risk assessment often plays an integral role in various decision-making processes at Superfund sites. The present study reports on risk characterizations prepared for seven complex mixtures using biological and chemical analysis. Three of the samples (A, B, and C) were complex mixtures of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) extracted from coal tar; while four samples extracted from munitions-contaminated soil contained primarily nitroaromatic hydrocarbons. The chemical-based risk assessment ranked sample C as least toxic, while the risk associated with samples A and B was approximately equal. The microbial bioassay was in general agreement for the coal tar samples. The weighted activity of the coal tar extracts in Salmonella was 4,960 for sample C, and 162,000 and 206,000 for samples A and B, respectively. The bacterial mutagenicity of 2,4,6-trinitrotoluene contaminated soils exhibited an indirect correlation with chemical-based risk assessment. The aqueous extract of sample 004 induced 1,292 net revertants in Salmonella, while the estimated risk to ingestion and dermal adsorption was 2E-9. The data indicate that the chemical-based risk assessment accurately predicted the genotoxicity of the PAHs, while the accuracy of the risk assessment for munitions contaminated soils was limited due to the presence of metabolites of TNT degradation. The biological tests used in this research provide a valuable compliment to chemical analysis for characterizing the genotoxic risk of complex mixtures

The use of Bayesian networks for nanoparticle risk forecasting: model formulation and baseline evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Money, Eric S; Reckhow, Kenneth H; Wiesner, Mark R

2012-06-01

We describe the use of Bayesian networks as a tool for nanomaterial risk forecasting and develop a baseline probabilistic model that incorporates nanoparticle specific characteristics and environmental parameters, along with elements of exposure potential, hazard, and risk related to nanomaterials. The baseline model, FINE (Forecasting the Impacts of Nanomaterials in the Environment), was developed using expert elicitation techniques. The Bayesian nature of FINE allows for updating as new data become available, a critical feature for forecasting risk in the context of nanomaterials. The specific case of silver nanoparticles (AgNPs) in aquatic environments is presented here (FINE(AgNP)). The results of this study show that Bayesian networks provide a robust method for formally incorporating expert judgments into a probabilistic measure of exposure and risk to nanoparticles, particularly when other knowledge bases may be lacking. The model is easily adapted and updated as additional experimental data and other information on nanoparticle behavior in the environment become available. The baseline model suggests that, within the bounds of uncertainty as currently quantified, nanosilver may pose the greatest potential risk as these particles accumulate in aquatic sediments. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Riverton, Wyoming

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-01

This Risk Assessment evaluated potential impacts to public health or the environment caused by ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. In the first phase of the U.S. Department of Energy`s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project, the tailing and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell near the Gas Hills Plant in 1990. The second phase of the UMTRA Project is to evaluate ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first site-specific document to evaluate potential health and environmental risks for the Riverton site under the Ground Water Project; it will help determine whether remedial actions are needed for contaminated ground water at the site.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Riverton, Wyoming

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

This Risk Assessment evaluated potential impacts to public health or the environment caused by ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. In the first phase of the U.S. Department of Energy's Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project, the tailing and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell near the Gas Hills Plant in 1990. The second phase of the UMTRA Project is to evaluate ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first site-specific document to evaluate potential health and environmental risks for the Riverton site under the Ground Water Project; it will help determine whether remedial actions are needed for contaminated ground water at the site

Emergency Response Capability Baseline Needs Assessment - Compliance Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sharry, John A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2016-09-01

This document was prepared by John A. Sharry, LLNL Fire Marshal and Division Leader for Fire Protection and was reviewed by LLNL Emergency Management Department Head, James Colson. This document is the second of a two-part analysis on Emergency Response Capabilities of Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. The first part, 2016 Baseline Needs Assessment Requirements Document established the minimum performance criteria necessary to meet mandatory requirements. This second part analyses the performance of Lawrence Livermore Laboratory Emergency Management Department to the contents of the Requirements Document. The document was prepared based on an extensive review of information contained in the 2016 BNA, a review of Emergency Planning Hazards Assessments, a review of building construction, occupancy, fire protection features, dispatch records, LLNL alarm system records, fire department training records, and fire department policies and procedures. The 2013 BNA was approved by NNSA’s Livermore Field Office on January 22, 2014.

Predicting Coronary Artery Aneurysms in Kawasaki Disease at a North American Center: An Assessment of Baseline z Scores.

Science.gov (United States)

Son, Mary Beth F; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Kim, Susan; Tang, Alexander; Dedeoglu, Fatma; Fulton, David R; Lo, Mindy S; Baker, Annette L; Sundel, Robert P; Newburger, Jane W

2017-05-31

Accurate risk prediction of coronary artery aneurysms (CAAs) in North American children with Kawasaki disease remains a clinical challenge. We sought to determine the predictive utility of baseline coronary dimensions adjusted for body surface area ( z scores) for future CAAs in Kawasaki disease and explored the extent to which addition of established Japanese risk scores to baseline coronary artery z scores improved discrimination for CAA development. We explored the relationships of CAA with baseline z scores; with Kobayashi, Sano, Egami, and Harada risk scores; and with the combination of baseline z scores and risk scores. We defined CAA as a maximum z score (zMax) ≥2.5 of the left anterior descending or right coronary artery at 4 to 8 weeks of illness. Of 261 patients, 77 patients (29%) had a baseline zMax ≥2.0. CAAs occurred in 15 patients (6%). CAAs were strongly associated with baseline zMax ≥2.0 versus Baseline zMax ≥2.0 had a C statistic of 0.77, good sensitivity (80%), and excellent negative predictive value (98%). None of the risk scores alone had adequate discrimination. When high-risk status per the Japanese risk scores was added to models containing baseline zMax ≥2.0, none were significantly better than baseline zMax ≥2.0 alone. In a North American center, baseline zMax ≥2.0 in children with Kawasaki disease demonstrated high predictive utility for later development of CAA. Future studies should validate the utility of our findings. © 2017 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Xue, J.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distribution functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates

Assessing exposures and risks in heterogeneously contaminated areas: A simulation approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fingleton, D.J.; MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Oezkaynak, H.; Butler, D.A.; Jianping Xue

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) is responsible for cleanup activities at a number of facilities under its Environmental Restoration and Waste Management Program. The major goals of this program are to eliminate potential hazards to human health and the environment that are associated with contamination of these sites and, to the extent possible, make surplus real property available for other uses. The assessment of potential baseline health risks and ecological impacts associated with a contaminated site is an important component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process required at all Superfund sites. The purpose of this paper is to describe one phase of the baseline assessment, i.e., the characterization of human health risks associated with exposure to chemical contaminants in air and on interior building surfaces at a contaminated site. The model combines data on human activity patterns in a particular microenvironment within a building with contaminant concentrations in that microenvironment to calculate personal exposure profiles and risks within the building. The results of the building assessment are presented as probability distributions functions and cumulative distribution functions, which show the variability and uncertainty in the risk estimates. 23 refs., 2 figs., 1 tab

Project management with dynamic scheduling baseline scheduling, risk analysis and project control

CERN Document Server

Vanhoucke, Mario

2013-01-01

The topic of this book is known as dynamic scheduling, and is used to refer to three dimensions of project management and scheduling: the construction of a baseline schedule and the analysis of a project schedule's risk as preparation of the project control phase during project progress. This dynamic scheduling point of view implicitly assumes that the usability of a project's baseline schedule is rather limited and only acts as a point of reference in the project life cycle.

Acute cellular rejection is a risk factor for bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome independent of post-transplant baseline FEV1

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Burton, C.M.; Iversen, M.; Carlsen, J.

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: Post-transplant baseline forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV(1)) constitutes a systematic bias in analyses of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). This retrospective study evaluates risk factors for BOS adjusting for the confounding of post-transplant baseline FEV(1). METHODS......-specific hazard of BOS (hazard ratio 1.4, confidence interval 1.1 to 1.8, p = 0.009). The absolute value of baseline FEV(1) was a significant confounder in all survival and competing risk analyses of BOS (p ... an independent risk factor for the development of BOS after adjusting for the confounding of post-transplant baseline FEV(1) Udgivelsesdato: 2009/9...

Challenges in Risk Assessment: Quantitative Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Jacxsens, Liesbeth; Uyttendaele, Mieke; De Meulenaer, Bruno

2016-01-01

The process of risk analysis consists out of three components, risk assessment, risk management and risk communication. These components are internationally well spread by Codex Alimentarius Commission as being the basis for setting science based standards, criteria on food safety hazards, e.g. setting maximum limits of mycotoxins in foodstuffs. However, the technical component risk assessment is hard to elaborate and to understand. Key in a risk assessment is the translation of biological or...

Emergency Response Capability Baseline Needs Assessment - Requirements Document

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sharry, J A

2016-10-04

This document was prepared by John A. Sharry, LLNL Fire Marshal and LLNL Division Leader for Fire Protection and reviewed by LLNL Emergency Management Department Head James Colson. The document follows and expands upon the format and contents of the DOE Model Fire Protection Baseline Capabilities Assessment document contained on the DOE Fire Protection Web Site, but only addresses emergency response.

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Biggerstaff, R.L.

1994-06-30

This report provides the qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit at the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. The extent of the groundwater beneath the 100 K Area is defined in the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Work Plan for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit (DOE-RL 1992a). The QRA is an evaluation or risk using a limited amount of data and a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios and is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment.

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Biggerstaff, R.L.

1994-01-01

This report provides the qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the 100-KR-4 groundwater operable unit at the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Hanford Site in southeastern Washington State. The extent of the groundwater beneath the 100 K Area is defined in the Remedial Investigation/Feasibility Study Work Plan for the 100-KR-4 Operable Unit (DOE-RL 1992a). The QRA is an evaluation or risk using a limited amount of data and a predefined set of human and environmental exposure scenarios and is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment

Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site, near Gunnison, Colorado. Revision 2

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-06-01

This report is the second site-specific risk assessment document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Gunnison site. A preliminary risk assessment was conducted in 1990 to determine whether long-term use of ground water from private wells near the Gunnison site had the potential for adverse health effects. Due to the results of that preliminary risk assessment, the residents were provided bottled water on an interim basis. In July 1994, the residents and the nearby Valco cement/concrete plant were given the option to connect to anew alternate water supply system, eliminating the bottled water option. This document evaluates current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether more action is needed to protect human health and the environment and to comply with the EPA standards

Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site, near Gunnison, Colorado. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-06-01

This report is the second site-specific risk assessment document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Gunnison site. A preliminary risk assessment was conducted in 1990 to determine whether long-term use of ground water from private wells near the Gunnison site had the potential for adverse health effects. Due to the results of that preliminary risk assessment, the residents were provided bottled water on an interim basis. In July 1994, the residents and the nearby Valco cement/concrete plant were given the option to connect to anew alternate water supply system, eliminating the bottled water option. This document evaluates current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether more action is needed to protect human health and the environment and to comply with the EPA standards.

Baseline characteristics predict risk of progression and response to combined medical therapy for benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH).

Science.gov (United States)

Kozminski, Michael A; Wei, John T; Nelson, Jason; Kent, David M

2015-02-01

To better risk stratify patients, using baseline characteristics, to help optimise decision-making for men with moderate-to-severe lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) secondary to benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) through a secondary analysis of the Medical Therapy of Prostatic Symptoms (MTOPS) trial. After review of the literature, we identified potential baseline risk factors for BPH progression. Using bivariate tests in a secondary analysis of MTOPS data, we determined which variables retained prognostic significance. We then used these factors in Cox proportional hazard modelling to: i) more comprehensively risk stratify the study population based on pre-treatment parameters and ii) to determine which risk strata stood to benefit most from medical intervention. In all, 3047 men were followed in MTOPS for a mean of 4.5 years. We found varying risks of progression across quartiles. Baseline BPH Impact Index score, post-void residual urine volume, serum prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level, age, American Urological Association Symptom Index score, and maximum urinary flow rate were found to significantly correlate with overall BPH progression in multivariable analysis. Using baseline factors permits estimation of individual patient risk for clinical progression and the benefits of medical therapy. A novel clinical decision tool based on these analyses will allow clinicians to weigh patient-specific benefits against possible risks of adverse effects for a given patient. © 2014 The Authors. BJU International © 2014 BJU International.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site at Grand Junction, Colorado. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-01

This risk assessment evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The remedial activities at the site were conducted from 1989 to 1993. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated ground water that flows beneath the processing site toward the Colorado River. The monitor wells that have consistently shown the highest concentrations of most contaminants are used to assess risk. This risk assessment will be used in conjunction with additional activities and documents to determine what remedial action may be needed for contaminated ground water at the site.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site at Grand Junction, Colorado. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

This risk assessment evaluates potential impacts to public health or the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in an off-site disposal cell by the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The remedial activities at the site were conducted from 1989 to 1993. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination. This risk assessment evaluates the most contaminated ground water that flows beneath the processing site toward the Colorado River. The monitor wells that have consistently shown the highest concentrations of most contaminants are used to assess risk. This risk assessment will be used in conjunction with additional activities and documents to determine what remedial action may be needed for contaminated ground water at the site

Descriptive Analysis of a Baseline Concussion Battery Among U.S. Service Academy Members: Results from the Concussion Assessment, Research, and Education (CARE) Consortium.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Kathryn L; Dain Allred, C; Cameron, Kenneth L; Campbell, Darren E; D'Lauro, Christopher J; Houston, Megan N; Johnson, Brian R; Kelly, Tim F; McGinty, Gerald; O'Donnell, Patrick G; Peck, Karen Y; Svoboda, Steven J; Pasquina, Paul; McAllister, Thomas; McCrea, Michael; Broglio, Steven P

2018-03-28

The prevalence and possible long-term consequences of concussion remain an increasing concern to the U.S. military, particularly as it pertains to maintaining a medically ready force. Baseline testing is being used both in the civilian and military domains to assess concussion injury and recovery. Accurate interpretation of these baseline assessments requires one to consider other influencing factors not related to concussion. To date, there is limited understanding, especially within the military, of what factors influence normative test performance. Given the significant physical and mental demands placed on service academy members (SAM), and their relatively high risk for concussion, it is important to describe demographics and normative profile of SAMs. Furthermore, the absence of available baseline normative data on female and non-varsity SAMs makes interpretation of post-injury assessments challenging. Understanding how individuals perform at baseline, given their unique individual characteristics (e.g., concussion history, sex, competition level), will inform post-concussion assessment and management. Thus, the primary aim of this manuscript is to characterize the SAM population and determine normative values on a concussion baseline testing battery. All data were collected as part of the Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium. The baseline test battery included a post-concussion symptom checklist (Sport Concussion Assessment Tool (SCAT), psychological health screening inventory (Brief Symptom Inventory (BSI-18) and neurocognitive evaluation (ImPACT), Balance Error Scoring System (BESS), and Standardized Assessment of Concussion (SAC). Linear regression models were used to examine differences across sexes, competition levels, and varsity contact levels while controlling for academy, freshman status, race, and previous concussion. Zero inflated negative binomial models estimated symptom scores due to the high frequency of zero scores

Higher Intake of Fruit, but Not Vegetables or Fiber, at Baseline Is Associated with Lower Risk of Becoming Overweight or Obese in Middle-Aged and Older Women of Normal BMI at Baseline.

Science.gov (United States)

Rautiainen, Susanne; Wang, Lu; Lee, I-Min; Manson, JoAnn E; Buring, Julie E; Sesso, Howard D

2015-05-01

Fruit, vegetable, and dietary fiber intake have been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, little is known about their role in obesity prevention. Our goal was to investigate whether intake of fruits, vegetables, and dietary fiber is associated with weight change and the risk of becoming overweight and obese. We studied 18,146 women aged ≥45 y from the Women's Health Study free of CVD and cancer with an initial body mass index (BMI) of 18.5 to Fruit, vegetable, and dietary fiber intakes were assessed at baseline through a 131-item food-frequency questionnaire, along with obesity-related risk factors. Women self-reported body weight on annual questionnaires. During a mean follow-up of 15.9 y, 8125 women became overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m²). Intakes of total fruits and vegetables, fruits, and dietary fiber were not associated with the longitudinal changes in body weight, whereas higher vegetable intake was associated with greater weight gain (P-trend: 0.02). In multivariable analyses, controlling for total energy intake and physical activity along with other lifestyle, clinical, and dietary factors, women in the highest vs. lowest quintile of fruit intake had an HR of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.94; P-trend: 0.01) of becoming overweight or obese. No association was observed for vegetable or dietary fiber intake. The association between fruit intake and risk of becoming overweight or obese was modified by baseline BMI (P-interaction: fruit, but not vegetables or fiber, by middle-aged and older women with a normal BMI at baseline is associated with lower risk of becoming overweight or obese. © 2015 American Society for Nutrition.

Green Plants in the Red: A Baseline Global Assessment for the IUCN Sampled Red List Index for Plants.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Neil A Brummitt

Full Text Available Plants provide fundamental support systems for life on Earth and are the basis for all terrestrial ecosystems; a decline in plant diversity will be detrimental to all other groups of organisms including humans. Decline in plant diversity has been hard to quantify, due to the huge numbers of known and yet to be discovered species and the lack of an adequate baseline assessment of extinction risk against which to track changes. The biodiversity of many remote parts of the world remains poorly known, and the rate of new assessments of extinction risk for individual plant species approximates the rate at which new plant species are described. Thus the question 'How threatened are plants?' is still very difficult to answer accurately. While completing assessments for each species of plant remains a distant prospect, by assessing a randomly selected sample of species the Sampled Red List Index for Plants gives, for the first time, an accurate view of how threatened plants are across the world. It represents the first key phase of ongoing efforts to monitor the status of the world's plants. More than 20% of plant species assessed are threatened with extinction, and the habitat with the most threatened species is overwhelmingly tropical rain forest, where the greatest threat to plants is anthropogenic habitat conversion, for arable and livestock agriculture, and harvesting of natural resources. Gymnosperms (e.g. conifers and cycads are the most threatened group, while a third of plant species included in this study have yet to receive an assessment or are so poorly known that we cannot yet ascertain whether they are threatened or not. This study provides a baseline assessment from which trends in the status of plant biodiversity can be measured and periodically reassessed.

Qualitative risk assessment for the 100-FR-1 source operable unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Corporation, I.T.

1994-08-01

This report provides the Qualitative risk assessment (QRA) for the waste sites associated with the 100-FR-1 Operable Unit. The QRA is an evaluation of risk for a predefined set of human and ecological exposure scenarios. It is not intended to replace or be a substitute for a baseline risk assessment. The QRA is streamlined to consider only two human health scenarios (frequent-and occasional-use) with four exposure pathways (soil ingestion, fugitive dust inhalation, inhalation of volatile organics, and external radiation exposure) and a limited ecological evaluation. The use of these scenarios and pathways was agreed to by the 100 Area Tri-Party unit managers

Comparison of Accuracy of Diabetes Risk Score and Components of the Metabolic Syndrome in Assessing Risk of Incident Type 2 Diabetes in Inter99 Cohort

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Shafizadeh, Tracy B; Moler, Edward J; Kolberg, Janice A

2011-01-01

developed diabetes risk score, PreDxH Diabetes Risk Score (DRS). DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. Methodology/Principal Findings: DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged......Background: Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM); factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and a previously...... 30–60) for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity...

The Female Athlete Body (FAB) study: Rationale, design, and baseline characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Stewart, Tiffany M; Pollard, Tarryn; Hildebrandt, Tom; Beyl, Robbie; Wesley, Nicole; Kilpela, Lisa Smith; Becker, Carolyn Black

2017-09-01

Eating Disorders (EDs) are serious psychiatric illnesses marked by psychiatric comorbidity, medical complications, and functional impairment. Research indicates that female athletes are often at greater risk for developing ED pathology versus non-athlete females. The Female Athlete Body (FAB) study is a three-site, randomized controlled trial (RCT) designed to assess the efficacy of a behavioral ED prevention program for female collegiate athletes when implemented by community providers. This paper describes the design, intervention, and participant baseline characteristics. Future papers will discuss outcomes. Female collegiate athletes (N=481) aged 17-21 were randomized by site, team, and sport type to either FAB or a waitlist control group. FAB consisted of three sessions (1.3h each) of a behavioral ED prevention program. Assessments were conducted at baseline (pre-intervention), post-intervention (3weeks), and six-, 12-, and 18-month follow-ups. This study achieved 96% (N=481) of target recruitment (N=500). Few group differences emerged at baseline. Total sample analyses revealed moderately low baseline instances of ED symptoms and clinical cases. Health risks associated with EDs necessitate interventions for female athletes. The FAB study is the largest existing RCT for female athletes aimed at both reduction of ED risk factors and ED prevention. The methods presented and population recruited for this study represent an ideal intervention for assessing the effects of FAB on both the aforementioned outcomes. We anticipate that findings of this study (reported in future papers) will make a significant contribution to the ED risk factor reduction and prevention literature. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Higher Intake of Fruit, but Not Vegetables or Fiber, at Baseline Is Associated with Lower Risk of Becoming Overweight or Obese in Middle-Aged and Older Women of Normal BMI at Baseline123

Science.gov (United States)

Rautiainen, Susanne; Wang, Lu; Lee, I-Min; Manson, JoAnn E; Buring, Julie E; Sesso, Howard D

2015-01-01

Background: Fruit, vegetable, and dietary fiber intake have been associated with lower risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, little is known about their role in obesity prevention. Objective: Our goal was to investigate whether intake of fruits, vegetables, and dietary fiber is associated with weight change and the risk of becoming overweight and obese. Methods: We studied 18,146 women aged ≥45 y from the Women’s Health Study free of CVD and cancer with an initial body mass index (BMI) of 18.5 to Fruit, vegetable, and dietary fiber intakes were assessed at baseline through a 131-item food-frequency questionnaire, along with obesity-related risk factors. Women self-reported body weight on annual questionnaires. Results: During a mean follow-up of 15.9 y, 8125 women became overweight or obese (BMI ≥25 kg/m2). Intakes of total fruits and vegetables, fruits, and dietary fiber were not associated with the longitudinal changes in body weight, whereas higher vegetable intake was associated with greater weight gain (P-trend: 0.02). In multivariable analyses, controlling for total energy intake and physical activity along with other lifestyle, clinical, and dietary factors, women in the highest vs. lowest quintile of fruit intake had an HR of 0.87 (95% CI: 0.80, 0.94; P-trend: 0.01) of becoming overweight or obese. No association was observed for vegetable or dietary fiber intake. The association between fruit intake and risk of becoming overweight or obese was modified by baseline BMI (P-interaction: fruit, but not vegetables or fiber, by middle-aged and older women with a normal BMI at baseline is associated with lower risk of becoming overweight or obese. PMID:25934663

Current Conditions Risk Assessment for the 300-FF-5 Groundwater Operable Unit

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Miley, Terri B.; Bunn, Amoret L.; Napier, Bruce A.; Peterson, Robert E.; Becker, James M.

2007-11-01

This report updates a baseline risk assessment for the 300 Area prepared in 1994. The update includes consideration of changes in contaminants of interest and in the environment that have occurred during the period of interim remedial action, i.e., 1996 to the present, as well as the sub-regions, for which no initial risk assessments have been conducted. In 1996, a record of decision (ROD) stipulated interim remedial action for groundwater affected by releases from 300 Area sources, as follows: (a) continued monitoring of groundwater that is contaminated above health-based levels to ensure that concentrations continue to decrease, and (b) institutional controls to ensure that groundwater use is restricted to prevent unacceptable exposure to groundwater contamination. In 2000, the groundwater beneath the two outlying sub-regions was added to the operable unit. In 2001, the first 5-year review of the ROD found that the interim remedy and remedial action objectives were still appropriate, although the review called for additional characterization activities. This report includes a current conditions baseline ecological and human health risk assessment using maximum concentrations in the environmental media of the 300-FF-5 Operable Unit and downstream conditions at the City of Richland, Washington. The scope for this assessment includes only current measured environmental concentrations and current use scenarios. Future environmental concentrations and future land uses are not considered in this assessment.

A method to establish seismic noise baselines for automated station assessment

Science.gov (United States)

McNamara, D.E.; Hutt, C.R.; Gee, L.S.; Benz, H.M.; Buland, R.P.

2009-01-01

We present a method for quantifying station noise baselines and characterizing the spectral shape of out-of-nominal noise sources. Our intent is to automate this method in order to ensure that only the highest-quality data are used in rapid earthquake products at NEIC. In addition, the station noise baselines provide a valuable tool to support the quality control of GSN and ANSS backbone data and metadata. The procedures addressed here are currently in development at the NEIC, and work is underway to understand how quickly changes from nominal can be observed and used within the NEIC processing framework. The spectral methods and software used to compute station baselines and described herein (PQLX) can be useful to both permanent and portable seismic stations operators. Applications include: general seismic station and data quality control (QC), evaluation of instrument responses, assessment of near real-time communication system performance, characterization of site cultural noise conditions, and evaluation of sensor vault design, as well as assessment of gross network capabilities (McNamara et al. 2005). Future PQLX development plans include incorporating station baselines for automated QC methods and automating station status report generation and notification based on user-defined QC parameters. The PQLX software is available through the USGS (http://earthquake. usgs.gov/research/software/pqlx.php) and IRIS (http://www.iris.edu/software/ pqlx/).

The chemistry of Magela Creek. A baseline for assessing change downstream of Ranger. Supervising Scientist report 151

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Klessa, D.A.

2000-01-01

The compositions of waters in Magela Creek upstream and downstream of Ranger uranium mine were reviewed. The water quality parameters examined were pH, electrical conductivity (EC) and turbidity, and dissolved calcium, magnesium, sodium, potassium, chloride, sulphate, ammonium, nitrate, copper, lead, manganese, zinc, uranium and radium-226. The frequency distributions of each of these parameters in waters upstream of the mine were characterised and statistically described to provide a baseline which allows a change in water chemistry downstream of the mine to be assessed. With the exception of pH, EC, turbidity, magnesium, calcium, sodium and manganese, data that comprise the baseline are not normally distributed. The frequency distributions of copper, lead, zinc, uranium and radium-226 forming the baseline are characterised by a large proportion of values at or near analytical detection limits and contamination in a relatively large proportion of the remainder. A comparison of upstream and downstream data shows that there is good conformity in pH, EC, turbidity, sodium, potassium and chloride. For calcium, nitrate, ammonium, lead, uranium, radium and zinc less than 40% of the downstream data fall outside the 20th and 80th baseline percentiles but in the ease of U, data are biased towards relatively high values. More than 40% of downstream magnesium and sulphate data are outside these percentile boundaries and are skewed towards relatively high concentrations. Copper, lead and zinc in mine waters (characterised by the composition of waters contained in the former RP4) do not appear to pose a risk as contaminants based upon the results of toxicity testing and water quality guideline trigger levels with risk minimised for greater than 1 in 20 dilution

Long-term and baseline recreational physical activity and risk of endometrial cancer: the California Teachers Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Dieli-Conwright, C M; Ma, H; Lacey, J V; Henderson, K D; Neuhausen, S; Horn-Ross, P L; Deapen, D; Sullivan-Halley, J; Bernstein, L

2013-08-06

Physical activity may be associated with decreasing endometrial cancer risk; it remains unclear whether the association is modified by body size. Among 93 888 eligible California Teachers Study participants, 976 were diagnosed with incident endometrial cancer between 1995-1996 and 2007. Cox proportional hazards regression methods were used to estimate relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for endometrial cancer associated with long-term (high school through age 54 years) and baseline (3 years prior to joining the cohort) strenuous and moderate recreational physical activity, overall and by body size. Increased baseline strenuous recreational physical activity was associated with decreased endometrial cancer risk (Ptrend=0.006) with approximately 25% lower risk among women exercising >3 h per week per year than among those exercising activity was associated with lower risk among overweight/obese women. Increasing physical activity, particularly strenuous activity, may be a lifestyle change that overweight and obese women can implement to reduce their endometrial cancer risk.

Strategy for integrated CERCLA/NEPA risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacDonell, M.M.; Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; Blunt, D.A.; Fingleton, D.J.; Picel, M.H.

1991-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE) has established a policy whereby, for remedial actions, the procedural and documentational requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) are integrated with those of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended. However, the objectives of risk assessment under NEPA and CERCLA differ somewhat. Until its recent application at contaminated sites, NEPA analysis has typically been applied to impacts from taking actions at clean sites (e.g., for construction activities), and a somewhat loosely structured process has historically been used to estimate relative risks for NEPA analyses. Decisions such as cleanup levels were not made on the basis of the risk estimates, and they therefore tended to be conservative and were not discussed in detail. In contrast, risks estimated for Superfund (CERCLA) sites are used to focus the decision-making process for those sites and support national prioritization for cleanup, and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has developed a detailed framework for preparing baseline health risk assessments for these sites. The purpose of this paper is to discuss issues related to intergrating the CERCLA and NEPA approaches into the risk assessments that have been prepared for a DOE remedial action project at the Weldon Spring site near St. Charles, Missouri. These issues are grouped into three basic categories: general assumptions for the impact evaluation, data management, and presentation of the methodology and results. This paper is not intended to represent DOE policy and guidance, nor does it represent the only approach that can be used for integrated risk assessments. It merely discusses the process that was used for the Weldon Spring project, articulating the issues that were encountered and how they were addressed

Caries risk assessment in pregnant women using cariogram

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dolić Olivera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Introduction/Objective. “Cariogram” takes into account interactions between caries-related factors and expresses a graphic assessment of the caries risk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the relationship between caries risk and different variables of Cariogram in pregnant women. Methods. This study included 96 pregnant women. At baseline, data on general health, diet, oral hygiene, and fluoride exposure were obtained. DMFT (decayed, missing, and filled teeth index was calculated by clinical examination. Saliva analyses included mutans streptococci and lactobacilli counts, buffer capacity, and secretion rate. Scores were entered and caries risk was assessed. The women were divided into five groups according to their Cariogram caries risk. Results. The results of the study showed that 29.17% (28 of the pregnant women had high caries risk, 21.88% (21 – medium, 17.71% (17 – low, 16.67% (16 – very high, and 14.58% (14 – very low caries risk. In an average caries risk profile of pregnant women, the dominant sector was “Bacteria” (18.85% of the risk structure profile, followed by “Diet” (17.97%, “Circumstances” (15.68%, and “Susceptibility” sector (14.65%. Conclusion. Cariogram shows that pregnant women in Banja Luka, Bosnia and Herzegovina, had 46.14% chance of avoiding caries in the future. The Cariogram model can successfully determine caries risk profiles for pregnant women.

Bilateral mammographic density asymmetry and breast cancer risk: A preliminary assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zheng, Bin, E-mail: zhengb@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Sumkin, Jules H., E-mail: jsumkin@mail.magee.edu [Department of Radiology, Magee Womens Hospital, 300 Halket Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Zuley, Margarita L., E-mail: zuleyml@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, Magee Womens Hospital, 300 Halket Street, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Wang, Xingwei, E-mail: wangx6@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Klym, Amy H., E-mail: klymah@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States); Gur, David, E-mail: gurd@upmc.edu [Department of Radiology, University of Pittsburgh, 3362 Fifth Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States)

2012-11-15

To improve efficacy of breast cancer screening and prevention programs, it requires a risk assessment model with high discriminatory power. This study aimed to assess classification performance of using computed bilateral mammographic density asymmetry to predict risk of individual women developing breast cancer in near-term. The database includes 451 cases with multiple screening mammography examinations. The first (baseline) examinations of all case were interpreted negative. In the next sequential examinations, 187 cases developed cancer or surgically excised high-risk lesions, 155 remained negative (not-recalled), and 109 were recalled benign cases. From each of two bilateral cranio-caudal view images acquired from the baseline examination, we computed two features of average pixel value and local pixel value fluctuation. We then computed mean and difference of each feature computed from two images. When applying the computed features and other two risk factors (woman's age and subjectively rated mammographic density) to predict risk of cancer development, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were computed to evaluate the discriminatory/classification performance. The AUCs are 0.633 {+-} 0.030, 0.535 {+-} 0.036, 0.567 {+-} 0.031, and 0.719 {+-} 0.027 when using woman's age, subjectively rated, computed mean and asymmetry of mammographic density, to classify between two groups of cancer-verified and negative cases, respectively. When using an equal-weighted fusion method to combine woman's age and computed density asymmetry, AUC increased to 0.761 {+-} 0.025 (p < 0.05). The study demonstrated that bilateral mammographic density asymmetry could be a significantly stronger risk factor associated to the risk of women developing breast cancer in near-term than woman's age and assessed mean mammographic density.

Bilateral mammographic density asymmetry and breast cancer risk: A preliminary assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng, Bin; Sumkin, Jules H.; Zuley, Margarita L.; Wang, Xingwei; Klym, Amy H.; Gur, David

2012-01-01

To improve efficacy of breast cancer screening and prevention programs, it requires a risk assessment model with high discriminatory power. This study aimed to assess classification performance of using computed bilateral mammographic density asymmetry to predict risk of individual women developing breast cancer in near-term. The database includes 451 cases with multiple screening mammography examinations. The first (baseline) examinations of all case were interpreted negative. In the next sequential examinations, 187 cases developed cancer or surgically excised high-risk lesions, 155 remained negative (not-recalled), and 109 were recalled benign cases. From each of two bilateral cranio-caudal view images acquired from the baseline examination, we computed two features of average pixel value and local pixel value fluctuation. We then computed mean and difference of each feature computed from two images. When applying the computed features and other two risk factors (woman's age and subjectively rated mammographic density) to predict risk of cancer development, areas under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) were computed to evaluate the discriminatory/classification performance. The AUCs are 0.633 ± 0.030, 0.535 ± 0.036, 0.567 ± 0.031, and 0.719 ± 0.027 when using woman's age, subjectively rated, computed mean and asymmetry of mammographic density, to classify between two groups of cancer-verified and negative cases, respectively. When using an equal-weighted fusion method to combine woman's age and computed density asymmetry, AUC increased to 0.761 ± 0.025 (p < 0.05). The study demonstrated that bilateral mammographic density asymmetry could be a significantly stronger risk factor associated to the risk of women developing breast cancer in near-term than woman's age and assessed mean mammographic density.

Psychological impact of family history risk assessment in primary care: a mixed methods study.

Science.gov (United States)

Birt, Linda; Emery, Jon D; Prevost, A Toby; Sutton, Stephen; Walter, Fiona M

2014-08-01

Routine family history risk assessment for chronic diseases could enable primary care practitioners to efficiently identify at-risk patients and promote preventive management strategies. To investigate patients' understanding and responses to family history risk assessment in primary care. A mixed methods study set in 10 Eastern England general practices. Participants in a family history questionnaire validation study were triaged into population or increased risk for four chronic diseases (type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, breast cancer, colorectal cancer). Questionnaires completed immediately prior to the family history consultation (baseline) and 4 weeks later (follow-up) assessed the psychological impact, including State-Trait Anxiety Inventory scores. Semi-structured interviews explored the meaning participants gave to their personal familial disease risk. Four hundred and fifty-three participants completed both baseline and follow-up questionnaires and 30 were interviewed. At follow-up, there was no increase in anxiety among either group, or differences between the groups [difference in mean change 0.02, 95% confidence interval -2.04, 2.08, P = 0.98]. There were no significant changes over time in self-rated health in either group. At follow-up, participants at increased risk (n = 153) were more likely to have recent changes to behaviour and they had stronger intentions to make changes to diet (P = 0.001), physical activity (P = 0.006) and to seek further information in the future than those at population risk (n = 300; P assessment for familial risk of chronic diseases may be undertaken in primary care without causing anxiety or reducing self-rated health. Patient responses to family history risk assessment may inform promotion of preventive management strategies. © The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Track 6: safety and risk management. Plant operational risk management. Plant Configuration Risk Assessment Methodology Development for Periodic Maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Huichang; Chung, Chang Hyun; Sung, Key Yong

2001-01-01

plant risk level. Such a change in the arrangement of the plant equipment and system at a given time period can be represented as the plant configuration. The plant configuration risk assessment methodology that was developed during this study consists of six steps, as follows: 1. Identification of plant configuration: In this step, various events that occurred in the plant should be identified through a review of the plant operation records such as the periodic maintenance and inspection schedules, maintenance or repair request logs, trouble reports, and other documents related to operational activity. 2. Evaluation of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) model and computer codes: For the effective evaluation of plant risk during normal operation, an appropriate plant risk model should 273 be used, and the capability of computer codes should be evaluated. There might be numerous events that require the maintenance activity during normal operation. To handle these events during the risk calculation, an optimized plant PRA model and a risk analysis tool of fast calculation capacity are needed. 3. Development of baseline risk model and evaluation of baseline risk: The baseline risk model is a risk model similar to that used for the level 1 PRA, but the maintenance-related events are excluded. This methodology focuses on the relative risk change caused by the usual plant events. For this purpose, the baseline risk that will be the reference of risk variation should be evaluated as reasonably as possible. 4. Analysis of components and systems: For the detailed risk analysis, it is useful to perform the importance analysis for the target components or systems before calculating the plant risks. In terms of system unavailability analysis and importance analysis, information of specific components and systems should be performed for the detailed risk analysis 5. Evaluation of configuration risks and sensitivity analysis: Using the configuration and the system information from

Assisted care as a baseline patient risk characteristic affecting the outcome of transcatheter aortic valve insertion.

Science.gov (United States)

Traynor, Megan M; Greason, Kevin L; Nkomo, Vuyisile T; Pochettino, Alberto; Holmes, David R; Rihal, Charanjit S; Reeder, Guy S; Bresnahan, John F; Mathew, Verghese

2017-06-01

Objective measures of frailty have not been well defined as risk factors for a poor outcome after transcatheter aortic valve insertion. We hypothesized that assisted care as a baseline patient characteristic was a simple objective measure of frailty. We reviewed our experience to assess for an association between assisted care and outcome of operation. We retrospectively reviewed the records of 597 patients operated with transcatheter aortic valve insertion from November 2008 through July 2015. The study cohort included patients with a dichotomous baseline characteristic of receiving assisted care (AC group, n = 60, 10.1%) or not receiving assisted care (NC group, n = 537, 89.9%). The endpoints of the study were operative stroke/death and 1-year survival. The age of the patients was 80.6 ± 9.0 years, male sex was present in 349 (58.5%), and STS predicted risk of mortality was 9.2 ± 6.2%. Alternate access was used in 26 (43.3%) patients in the AC care group and in 220 (41.0%) in the NC group (P = 0.724). Operative stroke/death occurred in 4 (6.7%) patients in the AC group and in 25 (4.7%) in the NC group (P = 0.492). Mortality at 1 year in the AC group was 14.8 ± 5.2% and in the NC group was 12.9 ± 1.7%; (P = 0. 250). Assisted care as a baseline patient characteristic does not result in increased operative stroke/death or 1-year mortality in patients following transcatheter aortic valve insertion. Assisted care should not by itself preclude operation. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Multifactorial assessment of the risk of falls in low bone density older women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrícia Azevedo Garcia

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Identifying effective assessment instruments for predicting falls, specifically in older women with low bone mineral density (BMD that are more susceptible to fractures remains a challenge. Objective: To evaluate risk factors for falls at baseline, to identify the falls occurrence over six months of follow-up and to investigate the predictive validity of the Quickscreen Clinical Falls Risk Assessment for predicting multiple falls among low BMD older women. Methods: A methodological study with 110 older women with diagnosis of osteoporosis or osteopenia (70.26 ± 6.24 years. The presence of two or more of the eight risk factors assessed by the QuickScreen characterized the risk of falling (baseline and monthly phone calls identified the occurrence of falls during the six months of follow-up. Results: The most prevalent falls risk factors were self-reported previous falls, polypharmacy and impairment in shifting weight and lateral instability. Most of the older women (67.3% had two or more risk factors, 24.5% reported a single fall and 13.6% reported multiple falls over the six months. The QuickScreen (cutoff ≥ 2 risk factors showed good sensitivity (73.3% and high negative predictive value (88.89% for predicting multiple falls among low BMD older women. Conclusions: The results indicated a high frequency of falls among low BMD older women. Additionally, the results highlighted that the QuickScreen instrument was able to predict multiple falls in the six months of follow-up among these older women.

Technical challenges in the qualitative ecological risk assessments performed on the Hanford Site operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Probasco, K.M.

1994-01-01

Qualitative Risk Assessments (QRAS) have been selected as the method for providing the risk-driver indications for interim, remedial, and cleanup actions for the Hanford Site operable units' ecological risk assessments. This expedited response action path has been developed for the Hanford Site to facilitate time-critical decisions and generate immediate emergency cleanup actions. Tight budgets and aggressive time schedules are a major factor in the development of the QRA process. The QRA is a quick way to find immediate threats and a good precursor to a full risk assessment. However, numerous technical challenges have been identified with the QRA approach. The QRA approach differs from a baseline risk assessment in several ways. The main differences involve the use of data that have previously been gathered from the site, and the development of a ''bias-for-action'' document that would reveal qualitative risks from the contaminants identified at the operable units. Technical challenges concerning the ecological portion of these QRAs have raised questions about using the ORA for decision-making and may have weakened the validity of its use in the established procedural framework. Challenges involving such issues as the extrapolation of the contaminant data, data validation and screening techniques, receptor selections, and the final risk characterization outcome threaten the feasibility of the QRA as a decision-making tool. This discussion provides insight into resolving technical challenges and may be a ''lessons-learned'' device for those interested in the QRA approach. Ultimately, these challenges are proving to be learning tools for scientists, regulators, and ecologists and are identifying the data gaps and research direction for future ecological baseline risk assessments

Qualitative risk assessment for 100-DR-1 source operable unit

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naiknimbalkar, N.M.

1994-01-01

The Washington State Department of Ecology (Ecology), the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), and the US Department of Energy (DOE), signatories to the Hanford Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order have developed the Hanford site Past-Practice Strategy to emphasize initiating and completing waste site cleanups with a bias for action. This strategy relies, in part, upon the use of a qualitative risk assessment (QRA) to assist in decision-making. The QRA is performed using the Hanford Site Baseline Risk Assessment Methodology (HSBRAM) as guidance (DOE-RL 1993a). The results will be used, along with other considerations, to make a recommendation for or against an interim remedial measure (IRM) at each high-priority waste site. The objective of conducting IRMs at Hanford, is to achieve cleanup and reduce risk in the shortest time possible and in a cost effective manner

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Naturita, Colorado

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-08-01

The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (phase I), and the Ground Water Project (phase II). For the UMTRA Project site located near Naturita, Colorado (the Naturita site), phase I involves the removal of radioactively contaminated soils and materials and their transportation to a disposal site at Union Carbide Corporation`s Upper Burbank Repository at Uravan, Colorado, about 13 road miles (mi) (21 kilometers [km]) to the northwest. No uranium mill tailings are involved because the tailings were removed from the Naturita site and placed at Coke Oven, Colorado, during 1977 to 1979. Phase II of the project will evaluate the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and its effect on human health or the environment; and will determine site-specific ground water compliance strategies in accordance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. Human health risks could occur from drinking water pumped from a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated ground water area. Environmental risks may result if plants or animals are exposed to contaminated ground water, or surface water that has received contaminated ground water. Therefore, a risk assessment is conducted for the Naturita site. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Naturita site. What follows is an evaluation of current and possible future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the environment.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Naturita, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-08-01

The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (phase I), and the Ground Water Project (phase II). For the UMTRA Project site located near Naturita, Colorado (the Naturita site), phase I involves the removal of radioactively contaminated soils and materials and their transportation to a disposal site at Union Carbide Corporation's Upper Burbank Repository at Uravan, Colorado, about 13 road miles (mi) (21 kilometers [km]) to the northwest. No uranium mill tailings are involved because the tailings were removed from the Naturita site and placed at Coke Oven, Colorado, during 1977 to 1979. Phase II of the project will evaluate the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and its effect on human health or the environment; and will determine site-specific ground water compliance strategies in accordance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. Human health risks could occur from drinking water pumped from a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated ground water area. Environmental risks may result if plants or animals are exposed to contaminated ground water, or surface water that has received contaminated ground water. Therefore, a risk assessment is conducted for the Naturita site. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Naturita site. What follows is an evaluation of current and possible future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the environment

Baseline risk assessment for the quarry residuals operable unit of the Weldon Spring Site, Weldon Spring, Missouri

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1998-02-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is conducting cleanup activities at the Weldon Spring site, located in St. Charles County, Missouri, about 48 km (30 mi) west of St. Louis. Cleanup of the site consists of several integrated components. The quarry residuals operable unit (QROU), consisting of the Weldon Spring quarry and its surrounding area, is one of four operable units being evaluated. In accordance with requirements of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended, DOE is conducting a remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) to determine the proper response to address various contaminated media that constitute the QROU. Specifically, the operable unit consists of the following areas and media: the residual material remaining at the Weldon Spring quarry after removal of the pond water and the bulk waste; groundwater underlying the quarry and surrounding area; and other media located in the surrounding vicinity of the quarry, including surface water and sediment at Femme Osage Slough, Little Femme Osage Creek, and Femme Osage Creek. An initial evaluation of conditions at the quarry area identified remaining data requirements needed to support the conceptual site exposure and hydrogeological models. These data requirements are discussed in the RI/FS work plan issued in January 1994. Soil contamination located at a property adjacent to the quarry, referred to as Vicinity Property 9 (VP9), was originally part of the scope of the QROU, as discussed in the work plan. However, a decision was subsequently made to remediate this vicinity property as part of cleanup activities for the chemical plant operable unit, as provided for in the Record of Decision (ROD). Remediation of VP9 was completed in early 1996. Hence, this baseline risk assessment (BRA) does not address VP9.

Baseline risk assessment for the quarry residuals operable unit of the Weldon Spring Site, Weldon Spring, Missouri

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-02-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) is conducting cleanup activities at the Weldon Spring site, located in St. Charles County, Missouri, about 48 km (30 mi) west of St. Louis. Cleanup of the site consists of several integrated components. The quarry residuals operable unit (QROU), consisting of the Weldon Spring quarry and its surrounding area, is one of four operable units being evaluated. In accordance with requirements of the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA), as amended, DOE is conducting a remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) to determine the proper response to address various contaminated media that constitute the QROU. Specifically, the operable unit consists of the following areas and media: the residual material remaining at the Weldon Spring quarry after removal of the pond water and the bulk waste; groundwater underlying the quarry and surrounding area; and other media located in the surrounding vicinity of the quarry, including surface water and sediment at Femme Osage Slough, Little Femme Osage Creek, and Femme Osage Creek. An initial evaluation of conditions at the quarry area identified remaining data requirements needed to support the conceptual site exposure and hydrogeological models. These data requirements are discussed in the RI/FS work plan issued in January 1994. Soil contamination located at a property adjacent to the quarry, referred to as Vicinity Property 9 (VP9), was originally part of the scope of the QROU, as discussed in the work plan. However, a decision was subsequently made to remediate this vicinity property as part of cleanup activities for the chemical plant operable unit, as provided for in the Record of Decision (ROD). Remediation of VP9 was completed in early 1996. Hence, this baseline risk assessment (BRA) does not address VP9

Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Shiprock, New Mexico

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-09-01

This report evaluates potential impact to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell on the site in 1986 by the US Department of Energy's (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating groundwater contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Groundwater Project. This risk assessment follows the approach outlined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The first step is to evaluate groundwater data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the main contaminants in the floodplain groundwater are arsenic, magnesium, manganese, nitrate, sodium, sulfate, and uranium. The complete list of contaminants associated with the terrace groundwater could not be determined due to the lack of the background groundwater quality data. However, uranium, nitrate, and sulfate are evaluated since these chemicals are clearly associated with uranium processing and are highly elevated compared to regional waters. It also could not be determined if the groundwater occurring in the terrace is a usable water resource, since it appears to have originated largely from past milling operations. The next step in the risk assessment is to estimate how much of these contaminants people would be exposed to if a drinking well were installed in the contaminated groundwater or if there were exposure to surface expressions of contaminated water. Potential exposures to surface water include incidental contact with contaminated water or sediments by children playing on the floodplain and consumption of meat and milk from domestic animals grazed and watered on the floodplain

Risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kinchin, G.H.

1983-01-01

After defining risk and introducing the concept of individual and societal risk, the author considers each of these, restricting considerations to risk of death. Some probabilities of death arising from various causes are quoted, and attention drawn to the care necessary in making comparisons between sets of data and to the distinction between voluntary and involuntary categories and between early and delayed deaths. The presentation of information on societal risk is discussed and examples given. The history of quantified risk assessment is outlined, particularly related to the nuclear industry, the process of assessing risk discussed: identification of hazard causes, the development of accident chains and the use of event trees, the evaluation of probability through the collection of data and their use with fault trees, and the assessment of consequences of hazards in terms of fatalities. Reference is made to the human element and common-made failures, and to studies supporting the development of reliability assessment techniques. Acceptance criteria are discussed for individual and societal risk in the nuclear field, and it is shown that proposed criteria lead to risks conservative by comparison with risks from day-to-day accidents and other potentially hazardous industries. (U.K.)

Risk Assessment Overview

Science.gov (United States)

Prassinos, Peter G.; Lyver, John W., IV; Bui, Chinh T.

2011-01-01

Risk assessment is used in many industries to identify and manage risks. Initially developed for use on aeronautical and nuclear systems, risk assessment has been applied to transportation, chemical, computer, financial, and security systems among others. It is used to gain an understanding of the weaknesses or vulnerabilities in a system so modification can be made to increase operability, efficiency, and safety and to reduce failure and down-time. Risk assessment results are primary inputs to risk-informed decision making; where risk information including uncertainty is used along with other pertinent information to assist management in the decision-making process. Therefore, to be useful, a risk assessment must be directed at specific objectives. As the world embraces the globalization of trade and manufacturing, understanding the associated risk become important to decision making. Applying risk assessment techniques to a global system of development, manufacturing, and transportation can provide insight into how the system can fail, the likelihood of system failure and the consequences of system failure. The risk assessment can identify those elements that contribute most to risk and identify measures to prevent and mitigate failures, disruptions, and damaging outcomes. In addition, risk associated with public and environment impact can be identified. The risk insights gained can be applied to making decisions concerning suitable development and manufacturing locations, supply chains, and transportation strategies. While risk assessment has been mostly applied to mechanical and electrical systems, the concepts and techniques can be applied across other systems and activities. This paper provides a basic overview of the development of a risk assessment.

Role of resistant starch on diabetes risk factors in people with prediabetes: Design, conduct, and baseline results of the STARCH trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Marlatt, Kara L; White, Ursula A; Beyl, Robbie A; Peterson, Courtney M; Martin, Corby K; Marco, Maria L; Keenan, Michael J; Martin, Roy J; Aryana, Kayanush J; Ravussin, Eric

2018-02-01

Dietary resistant starch (RS) might alter gastrointestinal tract function in a manner that improves human health, particularly among adults at risk for diabetes. Here, we report the design and baseline results (with emphasis on race differences) from the STARCH trial, the first comprehensive metabolic phenotyping of people with prediabetes enrolled in a randomized clinical trial testing the effect of RS on risk factors for diabetes. Overweight/obese participants (BMI≥27kg/m 2 and weight≤143kg), age 35-75y, with confirmed prediabetes were eligible. Participants were randomized to consume 45g/day of RS (RS=amylose) or amylopectin (Control) for 12weeks. The study was designed to evaluate the effect of RS on insulin sensitivity and secretion, ectopic fat, and inflammatory markers. Secondary outcomes included energy expenditure, substrate oxidation, appetite, food intake, colonic microbial composition, fecal and plasma levels of short-chain fatty acids, fecal RS excretion, and gut permeability. Out of 280 individuals screened, 68 were randomized, 65 started the intervention, and 63 were analyzed at baseline (mean age 55y, BMI 35.6kg/m 2 ); 2 were excluded from baseline analyses due to abnormal insulin and diabetes. Sex and race comparisons at baseline were reported. African-Americans had higher baseline acute insulin response to glucose (AIRg measured by frequently sampled intravenous glucose tolerance test) compared to Caucasians, despite having less visceral adipose tissue mass and intrahepatic lipid; all other glycemic variables were similar between races. Sleep energy expenditure was ~90-100kcal/day lower in African-Americans after adjusting for insulin sensitivity and secretion. This manuscript provides an overview of the strategy used to enroll people with prediabetes into the STARCH trial and describes methodologies used in the assessment of risk factors for diabetes. Clinicaltrials.gov identifier: STARCH (NCT01708694). The present study reference can be

Introduction to risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Raina, V.M.

2002-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to risk assessment. It discusses the basic concepts of risk assessment, nuclear risk assessment process and products, the role of risk assessment products in nuclear safety assurance, the relationship between risk assessment and other safety analysis and risk assessment and safe operating envelope

Cumulative Risk Assessment (CRA): transforming the way we assess health risks.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Pamela R D; Dotson, G Scott; Maier, Andrew

2012-10-16

Human health risk assessments continue to evolve and now focus on the need for cumulative risk assessment (CRA). CRA involves assessing the combined risk from coexposure to multiple chemical and nonchemical stressors for varying health effects. CRAs are broader in scope than traditional chemical risk assessments because they allow for a more comprehensive evaluation of the interaction between different stressors and their combined impact on human health. Future directions of CRA include greater emphasis on local-level community-based assessments; integrating environmental, occupational, community, and individual risk factors; and identifying and implementing common frameworks and risk metrics for incorporating multiple stressors.

Baseline risk factors for incidence of blindness in a South Indian population: the chennai eye disease incidence study.

Science.gov (United States)

Vijaya, Lingam; Asokan, Rashima; Panday, Manish; Choudhari, Nikhil S; Ramesh, Sathyamangalam Ve; Velumuri, Lokapavani; Boddupalli, Sachi Devi; Sunil, Govindan T; George, Ronnie

2014-08-07

To report the baseline risk factors and causes for incident blindness. Six years after the baseline study, 4419 subjects from the cohort underwent a detailed examination at the base hospital. Incident blindness was defined by World Health Organization criteria as visual acuity of less than 6/120 (3/60) and/or a visual field of less than 10° in the better-seeing eye at the 6-year follow-up, provided that the eye had a visual acuity of better than or equal to 6/120 (3/60) and visual field greater than 10° at baseline. For incident monocular blindness, both eyes should have visual acuity of more than 6/120 (3/60) at baseline and developed visual acuity of less than 6/120 (3/60) in one eye at 6-year follow-up. For incident blindness, 21 participants (0.48%, 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.3-0.7) became blind; significant baseline risk factors were increasing age (P = 0.001), smokeless tobacco use (P blindness was found in 132 participants (3.8%, 95% CI, 3.7-3.8); it was significantly more (P blindness and monocular blindness. No history of cataract surgery was a risk factor for blindness and a protective factor for monocular blindness. Copyright 2014 The Association for Research in Vision and Ophthalmology, Inc.

Using the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version in sexual violence risk assessments: Updated risk categories and recidivism estimates from a multisite sample of treated sexual offenders.

Science.gov (United States)

Olver, Mark E; Mundt, James C; Thornton, David; Beggs Christofferson, Sarah M; Kingston, Drew A; Sowden, Justina N; Nicholaichuk, Terry P; Gordon, Audrey; Wong, Stephen C P

2018-04-30

The present study sought to develop updated risk categories and recidivism estimates for the Violence Risk Scale-Sexual Offense version (VRS-SO; Wong, Olver, Nicholaichuk, & Gordon, 2003-2017), a sexual offender risk assessment and treatment planning tool. The overarching purpose was to increase the clarity and accuracy of communicating risk assessment information that includes a systematic incorporation of new information (i.e., change) to modify risk estimates. Four treated samples of sexual offenders with VRS-SO pretreatment, posttreatment, and Static-99R ratings were combined with a minimum follow-up period of 10-years postrelease (N = 913). Logistic regression was used to model 5- and 10-year sexual and violent (including sexual) recidivism estimates across 6 different regression models employing specific risk and change score information from the VRS-SO and/or Static-99R. A rationale is presented for clinical applications of select models and the necessity of controlling for baseline risk when utilizing change information across repeated assessments. Information concerning relative risk (percentiles) and absolute risk (recidivism estimates) is integrated with common risk assessment language guidelines to generate new risk categories for the VRS-SO. Guidelines for model selection and forensic clinical application of the risk estimates are discussed. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2018 APA, all rights reserved).

Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Emergency Response Capability Baseline Needs Assessment Requirement Document

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sharry, J A

2009-12-30

This revision of the LLNL Fire Protection Baseline Needs Assessment (BNA) was prepared by John A. Sharry, LLNL Fire Marshal and LLNL Division Leader for Fire Protection and reviewed by Martin Gresho, Sandia/CA Fire Marshal. The document follows and expands upon the format and contents of the DOE Model Fire Protection Baseline Capabilities Assessment document contained on the DOE Fire Protection Web Site, but only address emergency response. The original LLNL BNA was created on April 23, 1997 as a means of collecting all requirements concerning emergency response capabilities at LLNL (including response to emergencies at Sandia/CA) into one BNA document. The original BNA documented the basis for emergency response, emergency personnel staffing, and emergency response equipment over the years. The BNA has been updated and reissued five times since in 1998, 1999, 2000, 2002, and 2004. A significant format change was performed in the 2004 update of the BNA in that it was 'zero based.' Starting with the requirement documents, the 2004 BNA evaluated the requirements, and determined minimum needs without regard to previous evaluations. This 2010 update maintains the same basic format and requirements as the 2004 BNA. In this 2010 BNA, as in the previous BNA, the document has been intentionally divided into two separate documents - the needs assessment (1) and the compliance assessment (2). The needs assessment will be referred to as the BNA and the compliance assessment will be referred to as the BNA Compliance Assessment. The primary driver for separation is that the needs assessment identifies the detailed applicable regulations (primarily NFPA Standards) for emergency response capabilities based on the hazards present at LLNL and Sandia/CA and the geographical location of the facilities. The needs assessment also identifies areas where the modification of the requirements in the applicable NFPA standards is appropriate, due to the improved fire protection

Poor Baseline Pulmonary Function May Not Increase the Risk of Radiation-Induced Lung Toxicity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wang, Jingbo [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Cao, Jianzhong [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Yuan, Shuanghu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Ji, Wei [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Arenberg, Douglas [Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Dai, Jianrong [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Stanton, Paul; Tatro, Daniel; Ten Haken, Randall K. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States); Wang, Luhua, E-mail: wlhwq@yahoo.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cancer Hospital, Chinese Academic Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing (China); Kong, Feng-Ming, E-mail: fengkong@med.umich.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Michigan/Ann Arbor Veterans Health System, Ann Arbor, Michigan (United States)

2013-03-01

Purpose: Poor pulmonary function (PF) is often considered a contraindication to definitive radiation therapy for lung cancer. This study investigated whether baseline PF was associated with radiation-induced lung toxicity (RILT) in patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) receiving conformal radiation therapy (CRT). Methods and Materials: NSCLC patients treated with CRT and tested for PF at baseline were eligible. Baseline predicted values of forced expiratory volume in 1 sec (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), and diffusion capacity of lung for carbon monoxide (DLCO) were analyzed. Additional factors included age, gender, smoking status, Karnofsky performance status, coexisting chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), tumor location, histology, concurrent chemotherapy, radiation dose, and mean lung dose (MLD) were evaluated for RILT. The primary endpoint was symptomatic RILT (SRILT), including grade ≥2 radiation pneumonitis and fibrosis. Results: There was a total of 260 patients, and SRILT occurred in 58 (22.3%) of them. Mean FEV1 values for SRILT and non-SRILT patients were 71.7% and 65.9% (P=.077). Under univariate analysis, risk of SRILT increased with MLD (P=.008), the absence of COPD (P=.047), and FEV1 (P=.077). Age (65 split) and MLD were significantly associated with SRILT in multivariate analysis. The addition of FEV1 and age with the MLD-based model slightly improved the predictability of SRILT (area under curve from 0.63-0.70, P=.088). Conclusions: Poor baseline PF does not increase the risk of SRILT, and combining FEV1, age, and MLD may improve the predictive ability.

Baseline risk evaluation for exposure to bulk wastes at the Weldon Spring Quarry, Weldon Spring, Missouri

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haroun, L.A.; Peterson, J.M.; MacDonell, M.M.; Hlohowskyj, I.

1990-01-01

The US Department of Energy (DOE), under its Surplus Facilities Management Program (SFMP), is responsible for cleanup activities at the Weldon Spring site, Weldon Spring, Missouri. The site consists of a raffinate pits and chemical plant area and a quarry. This baseline risk evaluation has been prepared to support a proposed response action for management of contaminated bulk wastes in the quarry. The quarry became chemically and radioactively contaminated as a result of various wastes that were disposed of there between 1942 and 1969. This risk evaluation assesses potential impacts on human health and the environment that may result from exposure to releases of contaminants from the quarry under current site conditions. Risk assessment is a key component of the remedial investigation/feasibility study (RI/FS) process, as identified in guidance from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA); this process addresses sites subject to the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) of 1980, as amended by the Superfund Amendments and Reauthorization Act of 1986. Response actions at the Weldon Spring quarry are subject to CERCLA requirements because the quarry is listed on the EPA's National Priorities List. The DOE is also responsible for complying with the requirements of the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) of 1969, which requires federal agencies to consider the environmental consequences of a proposed action as part of the decision-making process for that action. Although this document has not been prepared to fulfill specific NEPA requirements, the analyses contained herein --- along with the analyses provided in the remedial investigation, feasibility study, and other supporting documents --- are intended to meet the environmental assessment requirements of NEPA

Influences of Mental Illness, Current Psychological State, and Concussion History on Baseline Concussion Assessment Performance.

Science.gov (United States)

Weber, Michelle L; Dean, John-Henry L; Hoffman, Nicole L; Broglio, Steven P; McCrea, Michael; McAllister, Thomas W; Schmidt, Julianne D; Hoy, April Reed; Hazzard, Joseph B; Kelly, Louise A; Ortega, Justus D; Port, Nicholas; Putukian, Margot; Langford, T Dianne; Tierney, Ryan; Campbell, Darren E; McGinty, Gerald; O'Donnell, Patrick; Svoboda, Steven J; DiFiori, John P; Giza, Christopher C; Benjamin, Holly J; Buckley, Thomas; Kaminski, Thomas W; Clugston, James R; Feigenbaum, Luis A; Eckner, James T; Guskiewicz, Kevin; Mihalik, Jason P; Miles, Jessica Dysart; Anderson, Scott; Master, Christina L; Collins, Micky; Kontos, Anthony P; Bazarian, Jeffrey J; Chrisman, Sara P D; Brooks, Allison; Duma, Stefan; Bullers, Christopher Todd; Miles, Christopher M; Dykhuizen, Brian H

2018-04-01

A student-athlete's mental state, including history of trait anxiety and depression, or current psychological state may affect baseline concussion assessment performance. (1) To determine if mental illness (anxiety, depression, anxiety with depression) influences baseline scores, (2) to determine if psychological state correlates with baseline performance, and (3) to determine if history of concussion affects Brief Symptom Inventory-18 (BSI-18) subscores of state anxiety, depression, and somatization. Cross-sectional study; Level of evidence, 3. A sample of 8652 collegiate student-athletes (54.5% males, 45.5% females) participated in the Concussion Assessment, Research and Education (CARE) Consortium. Baseline assessments included a demographic form, a symptom evaluation, Standardized Assessment of Concussion, Balance Error Scoring System, a psychological state assessment (BSI-18), and Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Test. Baseline scores were compared between individuals with a history of anxiety (n = 59), depression (n = 283), and anxiety with depression (n = 68) and individuals without a history of those conditions (n = 8242). Spearman's rho correlations were conducted to assess the relationship between baseline and psychological state subscores (anxiety, depression, somatization) (α = .05). Psychological state subscores were compared between individuals with a self-reported history of concussions (0, 1, 2, 3, 4+) using Kruskal-Wallis tests (α = .05). Student-athletes with anxiety, depression, and anxiety with depression demonstrated higher scores in number of symptoms reported (anxiety, 4.3 ± 4.2; depression, 5.2 ± 4.8; anxiety with depression, 5.4 ± 3.9; no anxiety/depression, 2.5 ± 3.4), symptom severity (anxiety, 8.1 ± 9.8; depression, 10.4 ± 12.4; anxiety with depression, 12.4 ± 10.7; no anxiety/depression, 4.1 ± 6.9), and psychological distress in state anxiety (anxiety, 3.7 ± 4.7; depression, 2.5 ± 3.6; anxiety with

Application of probabilistic risk assessment: Evaluating remedial alternatives at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site, Portland, Oregon, USA.

Science.gov (United States)

Ruffle, Betsy; Henderson, James; Murphy-Hagan, Clare; Kirkwood, Gemma; Wolf, Frederick; Edwards, Deborah A

2018-01-01

A probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) was performed to evaluate the range of potential baseline and postremedy health risks to fish consumers at the Portland Harbor Superfund Site (the "Site"). The analysis focused on risks of consuming fish resident to the Site containing polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), given that this exposure scenario and contaminant are the primary basis for US Environmental Protection Agency's (USEPA's) selected remedy per the January 2017 Record of Decision (ROD). The PRA used probability distributions fit to the same data sets used in the deterministic baseline human health risk assessment (BHHRA) as well as recent sediment and fish tissue data to evaluate the range and likelihood of current baseline cancer risks and noncancer hazards for anglers. Areas of elevated PCBs in sediment were identified on the basis of a geospatial evaluation of the surface sediment data, and the ranges of risks and hazards associated with pre- and postremedy conditions were calculated. The analysis showed that less active remediation (targeted to areas with the highest concentrations) compared to the remedial alternative selected by USEPA in the ROD can achieve USEPA's interim risk management benchmarks (cancer risk of 10 -4 and noncancer hazard index [HI] of 10) immediately postremediation for the vast majority of subsistence anglers that consume smallmouth bass (SMB) fillet tissue. In addition, the same targeted remedy achieves USEPA's long-term benchmarks (10 -5 and HI of 1) for the majority of recreational anglers. Additional sediment remediation would result in negligible additional risk reduction due to the influence of background. The PRA approach applied here provides a simple but adaptive framework for analysis of risks and remedial options focused on variability in exposures. It can be updated and refined with new data to evaluate and reduce uncertainty, improve understanding of the Site and target populations, and foster informed remedial decision

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Lakeview, Oregon. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-12-01

Surface cleanup at the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project site near Lakeview, Oregon was completed in 1989. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination that resulted from the uranium ore processing activities. The Ground Water Project is in its beginning stages. Human health may be at risk from exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium ore processing. Exposure could occur by drinking water pumped out of a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated areas. Ecological risks to plants or animals may result from exposure to surface water and sediment that have received contaminated ground water. A risk assessment describes a source of contamination, how that contamination reaches people and the environment, the amount of contamination to which people or the ecological environment may be exposed, and the health or ecological effects that could result from that exposure. This risk assessment is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the ecological environment

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Lakeview, Oregon. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-12-01

Surface cleanup at the Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project site near Lakeview, Oregon was completed in 1989. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination that resulted from the uranium ore processing activities. The Ground Water Project is in its beginning stages. Human health may be at risk from exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium ore processing. Exposure could occur by drinking water pumped out of a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated areas. Ecological risks to plants or animals may result from exposure to surface water and sediment that have received contaminated ground water. A risk assessment describes a source of contamination, how that contamination reaches people and the environment, the amount of contamination to which people or the ecological environment may be exposed, and the health or ecological effects that could result from that exposure. This risk assessment is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the ecological environment.

Operational risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

McKim, Vicky L

2017-06-01

In the world of risk management, which encompasses the business continuity disciplines, many types of risk require evaluation. Financial risk is most often the primary focus, followed by product and market risks. Another critical area, which typically lacks a thorough review or may be overlooked, is operational risk. This category encompasses many risk exposure types including those around building structures and systems, environmental issues, nature, neighbours, clients, regulatory compliance, network, data security and so on. At times, insurance carriers will assess internal hazards, but seldom do these assessments include more than a cursory look at other types of operational risk. In heavily regulated environments, risk assessments are required but may not always include thorough assessments of operational exposures. Vulnerabilities may linger or go unnoticed, only to become the catalyst for a business disruption at a later time, some of which are so severe that business recovery becomes nearly impossible. Businesses may suffer loss of clients as the result of a prolonged disruption of services. Comprehensive operational risk assessments can assist in identifying such vulnerabilities, exposures and threats so that the risk can be minimised or removed. This paper lays out how an assessment of this type can be successfully conducted.

Risk-based systems analysis for emerging technologies: Applications of a technology risk assessment model to public decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Quadrel, M.J.; Fowler, K.M.; Cameron, R.; Treat, R.J.; McCormack, W.D.; Cruse, J.

1995-01-01

The risk-based systems analysis model was designed to establish funding priorities among competing technologies for tank waste remediation. The model addresses a gap in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) ''toolkit'' for establishing funding priorities among emerging technologies by providing disciplined risk and cost assessments of candidate technologies within the context of a complete remediation system. The model is comprised of a risk and cost assessment and a decision interface. The former assesses the potential reductions in risk and cost offered by new technology relative to the baseline risk and cost of an entire system. The latter places this critical information in context of other values articulated by decision makers and stakeholders in the DOE system. The risk assessment portion of the model is demonstrated for two candidate technologies for tank waste retrieval (arm-based mechanical retrieval -- the ''long reach arm'') and subsurface barriers (close-coupled chemical barriers). Relative changes from the base case in cost and risk are presented for these two technologies to illustrate how the model works. The model and associated software build on previous work performed for DOE's Office of Technology Development and the former Underground Storage Tank Integrated Demonstration, and complement a decision making tool presented at Waste Management 1994 for integrating technical judgements and non-technical (stakeholder) values when making technology funding decisions

Issues in the assessment of congenital health risks from mercury in coal

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Saroff, L.

1995-01-01

This paper describes a probabilistic assessment of congenital neurological risks associated with consumption of fish and shellfish containing MeHg and the effects that local coal combustion might have on those risks. Two scenarios were considered with this model: the ''baseline'' scenario (MeHg from fish consumption without local impacts), and the ''impact'' scenario (baseline plus local power-plant impact on freshwater fish). In this paper, we describe the framework and application of the model, including parameters and statistical linkages, the distributions used to represent the parameters, and the statistical methods used to characterize the inherent variability in each individual's diet and the distribution of individuals within a hypothetical population. These factors define the baseline, which is then compared to observations of MeHg in hair in order to demonstrate the model's validity. The incremental effect of local coal combustion is represented by augmenting the distribution of Hg in local freshwater fish by a prescribed amount, which we refer to as the ''impact factor.'' Conventional air pollution dispersion modeling is then used to relate this factor to an appropriate range of powerplant characteristics

Dopamine modulates risk-taking as a function of baseline sensation-seeking trait.

Science.gov (United States)

Norbury, Agnes; Manohar, Sanjay; Rogers, Robert D; Husain, Masud

2013-08-07

Trait sensation-seeking, defined as a need for varied, complex, and intense sensations, represents a relatively underexplored hedonic drive in human behavioral neuroscience research. It is related to increased risk for a range of behaviors including substance use, gambling, and risky sexual practice. Individual differences in self-reported sensation-seeking have been linked to brain dopamine function, particularly at D2-like receptors, but so far no causal evidence exists for a role of dopamine in sensation-seeking behavior in humans. Here, we investigated the effects of the selective D2/D3 agonist cabergoline on performance of a probabilistic risky choice task in healthy humans using a sensitive within-subject, placebo-controlled design. Cabergoline significantly influenced the way participants combined different explicit signals regarding probability and loss when choosing between response options associated with uncertain outcomes. Importantly, these effects were strongly dependent on baseline sensation-seeking score. Overall, cabergoline increased sensitivity of choice to information about probability of winning; while decreasing discrimination according to magnitude of potential losses associated with different options. The largest effects of the drug were observed in participants with lower sensation-seeking scores. These findings provide evidence that risk-taking behavior in humans can be directly manipulated by a dopaminergic drug, but that the effectiveness of such a manipulation depends on baseline differences in sensation-seeking trait. This emphasizes the importance of considering individual differences when investigating manipulation of risky decision-making, and may have relevance for the development of pharmacotherapies for disorders involving excessive risk-taking in humans, such as pathological gambling.

Waste Assessment Baseline for the IPOC Second Floor, West Wing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCord, Samuel A [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). Waste Management and Pollution Prevention

2015-04-01

Following a building-wide waste assessment in September, 2014, and subsequent presentation to Sandia leadership regarding the goal of Zero Waste by 2025, the occupants of the IPOC Second Floor, West Wing contacted the Materials Sustainability and Pollution Prevention (MSP2) team to guide them to Zero Waste in advance of the rest of the site. The occupants are from Center 3600, Public Relations and Communications , and Center 800, Independent Audit, Ethics and Business Conduct . To accomplish this, MSP2 conducted a new limited waste assessment from March 2-6, 2015 to compare the second floor, west wing to the building as a whole. The assessment also serves as a baseline with which to mark improvements in diversion in approximately 6 months.

Effect of Baseline Nutritional Status on Long-term Multivitamin Use and Cardiovascular Disease Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Rautiainen, Susanne; Gaziano, J. Michael; Christen, William G.; Bubes, Vadim; Kotler, Gregory; Glynn, Robert J.; Manson, JoAnn E.; Buring, Julie E.

2017-01-01

Importance Long-term multivitamin use had no effect on risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the Physicians’ Health Study II. Baseline nutritional status may have modified the lack of effect. Objective To investigate effect modification by various baseline dietary factors on CVD risk in the Physicians’ Health Study II. Design, Setting, and Participants The Physicians’ Health Study II was a randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial testing multivitamin use (multivitamin [Centrum Silver] or placebo daily) among US male physicians. The Physicians’ Health Study II included 14 641 male physicians 50 years or older, 13 316 of whom (91.0%) completed a baseline 116-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire and were included in the analyses. This study examined effect modification by baseline intake of key foods, individual nutrients, dietary patterns (Alternate Healthy Eating Index and Alternate Mediterranean Diet Score), and dietary supplement use. The study began in 1997, with continued treatment and follow-up through June 1, 2011. Interventions Multivitamin or placebo daily. Main Outcomes and Measures Major cardiovascular events, including nonfatal myocardial infarction, nonfatal stroke, and CVD mortality. Secondary outcomes included myocardial infarction, total stroke, CVD mortality, and total mortality individually. Results In total, 13 316 male physicians (mean [SD] age at randomization, 64.0 [9.0] years in those receiving the active multivitamin and 64.0 [9.1] years in those receiving the placebo) were observed for a mean (SD) follow-up of 11.4 (2.3) years. There was no consistent evidence of effect modification by various foods, nutrients, dietary patterns, or baseline supplement use on the effect of multivitamin use on CVD end points. Statistically significant interaction effects were observed between multivitamin use and vitamin B6 intake on myocardial infarction, between multivitamin use and vitamin D intake on CVD mortality

Hepatitis Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Hepatitis Risk Assessment Recommend on Facebook Tweet Share Compartir Viral Hepatitis. Are you at risk? Take this 5 minute Hepatitis Risk Assessment developed ...

Risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration.

Science.gov (United States)

Klein, Michael L; Francis, Peter J; Ferris, Frederick L; Hamon, Sara C; Clemons, Traci E

2011-12-01

To design a risk assessment model for development of advanced age-related macular degeneration (AMD) incorporating phenotypic, demographic, environmental, and genetic risk factors. We evaluated longitudinal data from 2846 participants in the Age-Related Eye Disease Study. At baseline, these individuals had all levels of AMD, ranging from none to unilateral advanced AMD (neovascular or geographic atrophy). Follow-up averaged 9.3 years. We performed a Cox proportional hazards analysis with demographic, environmental, phenotypic, and genetic covariates and constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. Performance of the model was evaluated using the C statistic and the Brier score and externally validated in participants in the Complications of Age-Related Macular Degeneration Prevention Trial. The final model included the following independent variables: age, smoking history, family history of AMD (first-degree member), phenotype based on a modified Age-Related Eye Disease Study simple scale score, and genetic variants CFH Y402H and ARMS2 A69S. The model did well on performance measures, with very good discrimination (C statistic = 0.872) and excellent calibration and overall performance (Brier score at 5 years = 0.08). Successful external validation was performed, and a risk assessment tool was designed for use with or without the genetic component. We constructed a risk assessment model for development of advanced AMD. The model performed well on measures of discrimination, calibration, and overall performance and was successfully externally validated. This risk assessment tool is available for online use.

Defining the role of risk assessment in the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act (CERCLA) remedial investigation process at the DOE-OR

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Miller, P.D.; McGinn, C.W.; Purucker, S.T.; White, R.K.

1994-08-01

The risk assessment strategy that will be implemented on the Oak Ridge Reservation has been standardized to ensure consistency and technical defensibility in all risk assessment activities and is presented within this document. The strategy emphasizes using existing environmental data in screening risk analyses to aid in identifying chemicals of potential concern, operable units that could pursue a no further investigation determination, and operable units that may warrant early response actions. The screening risk analyses include a comparison of measured chemical concentrations to preliminary remediation goals, performing a most likely exposure and integration point assessment, and performing a screening ecological risk assessment. This document focuses heavily on the screening risk analyses and relies on existing U.S. Environmental Protection Agency risk assessment guidance to provide specific details on conducting baseline risk assessments. However, the document does contain a section on the baseline risk assessment process that details the exposure pathways to be evaluated on the Oak Ridge Reservation. This document will be used in conjunction with existing Martin Marietta Energy Systems, Inc. Environmental Restoration risk assessment standards, policies, procedures, and technical memoranda. The material contained herein will be periodically updated as the strategy is tried and tested and as the risk assessment methodology is revised. The primary purpose for this document is to present the proposed strategy to the Tennessee Department of Environment and Conservation and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, Region IV and receive concurrence or additional comments on the material presented herein

Baseline risk assessment of groundwater contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Shiprock, New Mexico. Draft

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-09-01

This report evaluates potential impact to public health or the environment resulting from groundwater contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell on the site in 1986 by the US Department of Energy`s (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, the UMTRA Project is evaluating groundwater contamination. This risk assessment is the first document specific to this site for the Groundwater Project. This risk assessment follows the approach outlined by the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). The first step is to evaluate groundwater data collected from monitor wells at the site. Evaluation of these data showed that the main contaminants in the floodplain groundwater are arsenic, magnesium, manganese, nitrate, sodium, sulfate, and uranium. The complete list of contaminants associated with the terrace groundwater could not be determined due to the lack of the background groundwater quality data. However, uranium, nitrate, and sulfate are evaluated since these chemicals are clearly associated with uranium processing and are highly elevated compared to regional waters. It also could not be determined if the groundwater occurring in the terrace is a usable water resource, since it appears to have originated largely from past milling operations. The next step in the risk assessment is to estimate how much of these contaminants people would be exposed to if a drinking well were installed in the contaminated groundwater or if there were exposure to surface expressions of contaminated water. Potential exposures to surface water include incidental contact with contaminated water or sediments by children playing on the floodplain and consumption of meat and milk from domestic animals grazed and watered on the floodplain.

GM Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Sparrow, Penny A. C.

GM risk assessments play an important role in the decision-making process surrounding the regulation, notification and permission to handle Genetically Modified Organisms (GMOs). Ultimately the role of a GM risk assessment will be to ensure the safe handling and containment of the GMO; and to assess any potential impacts on the environment and human health. A risk assessment should answer all ‘what if’ scenarios, based on scientific evidence.

CryoSat SAR/SARin Level1b products: assessment of BaselineC and improvements towards BaselineD

Science.gov (United States)

Scagliola, Michele; Fornari, Marco; Bouffard, Jerome; Parrinello, Tommaso

2017-04-01

CryoSat was launched on the 8th April 2010 and is the first European ice mission dedicated to the monitoring of precise changes in the thickness of polar ice sheets and floating sea ice. Cryosat carries an innovative radar altimeter called the Synthetic Aperture Interferometric Altimeter (SIRAL), that transmits pulses at a high pulse repetition frequency thus making the received echoes phase coherent and suitable for azimuth processing. This allows to reach a significantly improved along track resolution with respect to traditional pulse-width limited altimeters. CryoSat is the first altimetry mission operating in SAR mode and continuous improvements in the Level1 Instrument Processing Facility (IPF1) are being identified, tested and validated in order to improve the quality of the Level1b products. The current IPF, Baseline C, was released in operation in April 2015 and the second CryoSat reprocessing campaign was jointly initiated, taking benefit of the upgrade implemented in the IPF1 processing chain but also of some specific configurations for the calibration corrections. In particular, the CryoSat Level1b BaselineC products generated in the framework of the second reprocessing campaign include refined information for what concerns the mispointing angles and the calibration corrections. This poster will thus detail thus the evolutions that are currently planned for the CryoSat BaselineD SAR/SARin Level1b products and the corresponding quality improvements that are expected.

Baseline requirements for assessment of mining impact using biological monitoring

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Humphrey, C.L.; Dostine, P.L.

1995-01-01

Biological monitoring programmes for environmental protection should provide for both early detection of possible adverse effects, and assessment of the ecological significance of these effects. Monitoring techniques are required that include responses sensitive to the impact, that can be subjected to rigorous statistical analysis and for which statistical power is high. Such issues in baseline research of 'what and how to measure?' and 'for how long?' have been the focus of a programme being developed to monitor and assess effects of mining operations on the essentially pristine, freshwater ecosystems of the Alligator Rivers Region (ARR) in tropical northern Australia. Application of the BACIP (Before, After, Control, Impact, Paired differences) design, utilizing a form of temporal replication, to univariate (single species) and multivariate (community) data is described. The BACIP design incorporates data from single control and impact sites. We argue for modification of the design for particular studies conducted in streams, to incorporate additional independent control sites from adjacent catchment. Inferential power, by way of (i) more confidently attributing cause to an observed change and (ii) providing information about the ecological significance of the change, will be enhanced using a modified BACIP design. In highly valued environments such as the ARR, monitoring programmes require application of statistical tests with high power to guarantee that an impact no greater than a prescribed amount has gone undetected. A minimum number of baseline years using the BACIP approach would therefore be required in order to achieve some desired level of statistical power. This paper describes the results of power analyses conducted on 2-5 years (depending upon the technique) of baseline data from streams of the ARR and discuss the implications of these results for management. 44 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs

Offshore risk assessment

CERN Document Server

Vinnem, Jan-Erik

2014-01-01

  Offshore Risk Assessment was the first book to deal with quantified risk assessment (QRA) as applied specifically to offshore installations and operations. Risk assessment techniques have been used for more than three decades in the offshore oil and gas industry, and their use is set to expand increasingly as the industry moves into new areas and faces new challenges in older regions.   This updated and expanded third edition has been informed by a major R&D program on offshore risk assessment in Norway and summarizes research from 2006 to the present day. Rooted with a thorough discussion of risk metrics and risk analysis methodology,  subsequent chapters are devoted to analytical approaches to escalation, escape, evacuation and rescue analysis of safety and emergency systems.   Separate chapters analyze the main hazards of offshore structures: fire, explosion, collision, and falling objects as well as structural and marine hazards. Risk mitigation and control are discussed, as well as an illustrat...

Risk assessment of fall-related occupational accidents in the workplace

Science.gov (United States)

Tsukada, Tsukimi; Sakakibara, Hisataka

2016-01-01

Objectives: This study aimed to examine effective assessment methods of falls in the workplace. Methods: There were 436 employees (305 males and 131 females) of electrical appliance manufacturers included in this study. In 2014, a baseline survey was conducted using the fall scores questionnaire and the self-check risk assessment of falls and other accidents in the workplace (physical function measurement and questionnaire). In 2015, the occurrence of falls in the past year was investigated. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to examine factors relevant to falls. Results: In total, 62 subjects (14.2%) fell during the year, including those who fell during off-hours. The occurrence of falls during that one year was only associated with having experienced falls during the past year in the baseline survey (odds ratio [OR] 5.0; 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.5-9.7). Falls during that year were also related to the inability to walk 1 km continuously (OR 0.1; 95% CI 0.1-0.6), tripping sometimes (OR 4.0; 95% CI 1.6-9.9), step height differences at home (OR 3.0; 95% CI 1.3-6.8), and working in the production section (OR 0.2; 95% CI 0.1-0.5). Measurements of physical functions, such as muscle strength, balance, and agility, were not different between subjects who fell and those who did not. Conclusions: Our results showed that the questionnaire assessing falls during the past year could be useful to assess the risk of falls in the workplace. Annual checks for falls may contribute to fall prevention programs in the workplace. PMID:27725487

National-Level Multi-Hazard Risk Assessments in Sub-Saharan Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Murnane, R. J.; Balog, S.; Fraser, S. A.; Jongman, B.; Van Ledden, M.; Phillips, E.; Simpson, A.

2017-12-01

National-level risk assessments can provide important baseline information for decision-making on risk management and risk financing strategies. In this study, multi-hazard risk assessments were undertaken for 9 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa: Cape Verde, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Malawi, Mali, Mozambique, Senegal and Uganda. The assessment was part of the Building Disaster Resilience in Sub-Saharan Africa Program and aimed at supporting the development of multi-risk financing strategies to help African countries make informed decisions to mitigate the socio-economic, fiscal and financial impacts of disasters. The assessments considered hazards and exposures consistent with the years 2010 and 2050. We worked with multiple firms to develop the hazard, exposure and vulnerability data and the risk results. The hazards include: coastal flood, drought, earthquake, landslide, riverine flood, tropical cyclone wind and storm surge, and volcanoes. For hazards expected to vary with climate, the 2050 hazard is based on the IPCC RCP 6.0. Geolocated exposure data for 2010 and 2050 at a 15 arc second ( 0.5 km) resolution includes: structures as a function of seven development patterns; transportation networks including roads, bridges, tunnels and rail; critical facilities such as schools, hospitals, energy facilities and government buildings; crops; population; and, gross domestic product (GDP). The 2050 exposure values for population are based on the IPCC SSP 2. Values for other exposure data are a function of population change. Vulnerability was based on openly available vulnerability functions. Losses were based on replacement values (e.g., cost/m2 or cost/km). Risk results are provided in terms of annual average loss and a variety of return periods at the national and Admin 1 levels. Assessments of recent historical events are used to validate the model results. In the future, it would be useful to use hazard footprints of historical events for validation purposes. The

Issues in the assessment of congenital health risks from mercury in coal

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D. [Brookhaven National Lab., Upton, NY (United States); Saroff, L. [USDOE Assistant Secretary for Fossil Energy, Washington, DC (United States). Clean Coal Technology Program

1995-04-01

This paper describes a probabilistic assessment of congenital neurological risks associated with consumption of fish and shellfish containing MeHg and the effects that local coal combustion might have on those risks. Two scenarios were considered with this model: the ``baseline`` scenario (MeHg from fish consumption without local impacts), and the ``impact`` scenario (baseline plus local power-plant impact on freshwater fish). In this paper, we describe the framework and application of the model, including parameters and statistical linkages, the distributions used to represent the parameters, and the statistical methods used to characterize the inherent variability in each individual`s diet and the distribution of individuals within a hypothetical population. These factors define the baseline, which is then compared to observations of MeHg in hair in order to demonstrate the model`s validity. The incremental effect of local coal combustion is represented by augmenting the distribution of Hg in local freshwater fish by a prescribed amount, which we refer to as the ``impact factor.`` Conventional air pollution dispersion modeling is then used to relate this factor to an appropriate range of powerplant characteristics.

Concept of risk: risk assessment and nuclear safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thompson, P.B.

1980-01-01

The dissertation is a critical examination of risk assessment and its role in public policy. Nuclear power safety safety issues are selected as the primary source of illustrations and examples. The dissertation examines how risk assessment studies develop a concept of risk which becomes decisive for policy choices. Risk-assessment techniques are interpreted as instruments which secure an evaluation of risk which, in turn, figures prominently in technical reports on nuclear power. The philosophical critique is mounted on two levels. First, an epistemological critique surveys distinctions between the technical concept of risk and more familiar senses of risk. The critique shows that utilization of risk assessment re-structures the concept of risk. The technical concept is contrasted to the function of risk within a decision-maker's conceptual agenda and hierarchy of values. Second, an ethical critique exposes the value commitments of risk assessment recommendations. Although some of these values might be defended for policy decisions, the technical character of risk assessment obfuscates normative issues. Risk assessment is shown to be a form of factual enquiry which, nonetheless, represents a commitment to a specific selection of ethical and social values. Risk assessment should not be interpreted as a primary guide to decision unless the specific values incorporated into its concept of risk are stated explicitly and justified philosophically. Such a statement would allow value questions which have been sublimated by the factual tone of the analytic techniques to be debated on clear, social and ethical grounds

Effectiveness of a web-based health risk assessment with individually-tailored feedback on lifestyle behaviour: study protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laan Eva K

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Physical inactivity, unhealthy dietary habits, smoking and high alcohol consumption are recognized risk factors for cardiovascular disease and cancer. Web-based health risk assessments with tailored feedback seem promising in promoting a healthy lifestyle. This study evaluates the effectiveness of a web-based health risk assessment with individually-tailored feedback on lifestyle behaviour, conducted in a worksite setting. Methods/Design The web-based health risk assessment starts with a questionnaire covering socio-demographic variables, family and personal medical history, lifestyle behaviour and psychological variables. Prognostic models are used to estimate individual cardiovascular risks. In case of high risk further biometric and laboratory evaluation is advised. All participants receive individually-tailored feedback on their responses to the health risk assessment questionnaire. The study uses a quasi-experimental design with a waiting list control group. Data are collected at baseline (T0 and after six months (T1. Within each company, clusters of employees are allocated to either the intervention or the control group. Primary outcome is lifestyle behaviour, expressed as the sum of five indicators namely physical activity, nutrition, smoking behaviour, alcohol consumption, and symptoms of burnout. Multilevel regression analysis will be used to answer the main research question and to correct for clustering effects. Baseline differences between the intervention and control group in the distribution of characteristics with a potential effect on lifestyle change will be taken into account in further analyses using propensity scores. Discussion This study will increase insight into the effectiveness of health risk assessments with tailored feedback and into conditions that may modify the effectiveness. This information can be used to design effective interventions for lifestyle behaviour change among employees. Trial

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Green River, Utah

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-09-01

This document evaluates potential impacts to public health and the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell on the site in 1989 by the US DOE`s Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination in this risk assessment.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Green River, Utah

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-09-01

This document evaluates potential impacts to public health and the environment resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill processing site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell on the site in 1989 by the US DOE's Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. Currently, UMTRA Project is evaluating ground water contamination in this risk assessment

Dutch Risk Assessment tools

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Venema, A.

2015-01-01

The ‘Risico- Inventarisatie- en Evaluatie-instrumenten’ is the name for the Dutch risk assessment (RA) tools. A RA tool can be used to perform a risk assessment including an evaluation of the identified risks. These tools were among the first online risk assessment tools developed in Europe. The

High Baseline Postconcussion Symptom Scores and Concussion Outcomes in Athletes.

Science.gov (United States)

Custer, Aimee; Sufrinko, Alicia; Elbin, R J; Covassin, Tracey; Collins, Micky; Kontos, Anthony

2016-02-01

Some healthy athletes report high levels of baseline concussion symptoms, which may be attributable to several factors (eg, illness, personality, somaticizing). However, the role of baseline symptoms in outcomes after sport-related concussion (SRC) has not been empirically examined. To determine if athletes with high symptom scores at baseline performed worse than athletes without baseline symptoms on neurocognitive testing after SRC. Cohort study. High school and collegiate athletic programs. A total of 670 high school and collegiate athletes participated in the study. Participants were divided into groups with either no baseline symptoms (Postconcussion Symptom Scale [PCSS] score = 0, n = 247) or a high level of baseline symptoms (PCSS score > 18 [top 10% of sample], n = 68). Participants were evaluated at baseline and 2 to 7 days after SRC with the Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Test and PCSS. Outcome measures were Immediate Post-concussion Assessment and Cognitive Test composite scores (verbal memory, visual memory, visual motor processing speed, and reaction time) and total symptom score on the PCSS. The groups were compared using repeated-measures analyses of variance with Bonferroni correction to assess interactions between group and time for symptoms and neurocognitive impairment. The no-symptoms group represented 38% of the original sample, whereas the high-symptoms group represented 11% of the sample. The high-symptoms group experienced a larger decline from preinjury to postinjury than the no-symptoms group in verbal (P = .03) and visual memory (P = .05). However, total concussion-symptom scores increased from preinjury to postinjury for the no-symptoms group (P = .001) but remained stable for the high-symptoms group. Reported baseline symptoms may help identify athletes at risk for worse outcomes after SRC. Clinicians should examine baseline symptom levels to better identify patients for earlier referral and treatment for their

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Naturita, Colorado. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-11-01

The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project, and the Ground Water Project. For the UMTRA Project site located near Naturita, Colorado, phase I involves the removal of radioactively contaminated soils and materials and their transportation to a disposal site at Union Carbide Corporation`s Upper Burbank Repository at Uravan, Colorado. The surface cleanup will reduce radon and other radiation emissions from the former uranium processing site and prevent further site-related contamination of ground water. Phase II of the project will evaluate the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and its effect on human health and the environment, and will determine site-specific ground water compliance strategies in accordance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. Human health risks could occur from drinking water pumped from a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated ground water area. Environmental risks may result if plants or animals are exposed to contaminated ground water or surface water that has mixed with contaminated ground water. Therefore, a risk assessment was conducted for the Naturita site. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Naturita site. What follows is an evaluation of current and possible future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the environment.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Naturita, Colorado. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-11-01

The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project, and the Ground Water Project. For the UMTRA Project site located near Naturita, Colorado, phase I involves the removal of radioactively contaminated soils and materials and their transportation to a disposal site at Union Carbide Corporation's Upper Burbank Repository at Uravan, Colorado. The surface cleanup will reduce radon and other radiation emissions from the former uranium processing site and prevent further site-related contamination of ground water. Phase II of the project will evaluate the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and its effect on human health and the environment, and will determine site-specific ground water compliance strategies in accordance with the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. Human health risks could occur from drinking water pumped from a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated ground water area. Environmental risks may result if plants or animals are exposed to contaminated ground water or surface water that has mixed with contaminated ground water. Therefore, a risk assessment was conducted for the Naturita site. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the Ground Water Project at the Naturita site. What follows is an evaluation of current and possible future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the environment

State of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Conrad, J.

1978-03-01

In view of the growing importance assumed in recent years by scientific work on the calculation, quantification, evaluation and acceptance as well as behavior in the face of risks in general and more specifically, the risks of large industrial plants, the report attempts to provide a survey of the current situation, results and evaluation of this new branch of research, risk assessment. The emphasis of the report is on the basic discussion and criticism of the theoretical and methodological approaches used in the field of risk assessment (section 3). It is concerned above all with - methodical problems of determining and quantifying risks (3.1) - questions of the possibility of risk evaluation and comp arison (3.1, 3.2) - the premises of normative and empirical studies on decision making under risk (3.2, 3.3) - investigations into society's acceptance of risks involved in the introduction of new technologies (3.4) - attempts to combine various aspects of the field of risk assessment in a unified concept (3.5, 3.6, 3.7). Because risk assessment is embedded in the framework of decision theory and technology assessment, it can be implicitly evaluated at a more general level within this framework, as far as its possibilities and weaknesses of method and application are concerned (section 4). Sections 2 and 5 deal with the social context of origin and utilization of risk assessment. Finally, an attempt is made at a summary indicating the possible future development of risk assessment. (orig./HP) [de

Risk assessment and risk management of mycotoxins.

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-01

Risk assessment is the process of quantifying the magnitude and exposure, or probability, of a harmful effect to individuals or populations from certain agents or activities. Here, we summarize the four steps of risk assessment: hazard identification, dose-response assessment, exposure assessment, and risk characterization. Risk assessments using these principles have been conducted on the major mycotoxins (aflatoxins, fumonisins, ochratoxin A, deoxynivalenol, and zearalenone) by various regulatory agencies for the purpose of setting food safety guidelines. We critically evaluate the impact of these risk assessment parameters on the estimated global burden of the associated diseases as well as the impact of regulatory measures on food supply and international trade. Apart from the well-established risk posed by aflatoxins, many uncertainties still exist about risk assessments for the other major mycotoxins, often reflecting a lack of epidemiological data. Differences exist in the risk management strategies and in the ways different governments impose regulations and technologies to reduce levels of mycotoxins in the food-chain. Regulatory measures have very little impact on remote rural and subsistence farming communities in developing countries, in contrast to developed countries, where regulations are strictly enforced to reduce and/or remove mycotoxin contamination. However, in the absence of the relevant technologies or the necessary infrastructure, we highlight simple intervention practices to reduce mycotoxin contamination in the field and/or prevent mycotoxin formation during storage.

Biosafety Risk Assessment Methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Caskey, Susan Adele [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Gaudioso, Jennifer M. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Salerno, Reynolds Mathewson [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States). International Biological Threat Reduction Program; Wagner, Stefan M. [Public Health Agency of Canada, Winnipeg, MB (Canada). Canadian Science Centre for Human and Animal Health (CSCHAH); Shigematsu, Mika [National Inst. of Infectious Diseases (NIID), Tokyo (Japan); Risi, George [Infectious Disease Specialists, P.C, Missoula, MT (United States); Kozlovac, Joe [US Dept. of Agriculture (USDA)., Beltsville, MD (United States); Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke [Statens Serum Inst., Copenhagen (Denmark); Prat, Esmeralda [Bayer CropScience, Monheim am Rhein (Germany)

2010-10-01

Laboratories that work with biological agents need to manage their safety risks to persons working the laboratories and the human and animal community in the surrounding areas. Biosafety guidance defines a wide variety of biosafety risk mitigation measures, which include measures which fall under the following categories: engineering controls, procedural and administrative controls, and the use of personal protective equipment; the determination of which mitigation measures should be used to address the specific laboratory risks are dependent upon a risk assessment. Ideally, a risk assessment should be conducted in a manner which is standardized and systematic which allows it to be repeatable and comparable. A risk assessment should clearly define the risk being assessed and avoid over complication.

2007 TOXICOLOGY AND RISK ASSESSMENT ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA has announced The 2007 Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference Cincinnati Marriott North, West Chester (Cincinnati), OHApril 23- 26, 2007 - Click to register!The Annual Toxicology and Risk Assessment Conference is a unique meeting where several Government Agencies come together to discuss toxicology and risk assessment issues that are not only of concern to the government, but also to a broader audience including academia and industry. The theme of this year's conference is Emerging Issues and Challenges in Risk Assessment and the preliminary agenda includes: Plenary Sessions and prominent speakers (tentative) include: Issues of Emerging Chemical ContaminantsUncertainty and Variability in Risk Assessment Use of Mechanistic data in IARC evaluationsParallel Sessions:Uncertainty and Variability in Dose-Response Assessment Recent Advances in Toxicity and Risk Assessment of RDX The Use of Epidemiologic Data for Risk Assessment Applications Cumulative Health Risk Assessment:

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Lakeview, Oregon. Revision 2

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-03-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (Phase I) and the Ground Water Project (Phase II). Under the UMTRA Surface Project, tailings, contaminated soil, equipment, and materials associated with the former uranium ore processing at UMTRA Project sites are placed into disposal cells. The cells are designed to reduce radon and other radiation emissions and to minimize further contamination of ground water. Surface cleanup at the UMTRA Project site near Lakeview, Oregon, was completed in 1989. The mill operated from February 1958 to November 1960. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination that resulted from the uranium ore processing activities. The Ground Water Project is in its beginning stages. Human health may be at risk from exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium ore processing. Exposure could occur by drinking water pumped out of a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated areas. Ecological risks to plants or animals may result from exposure to surface water and sediment that have received contaminated ground water. A risk assessment describes a source of contamination, how that contamination reaches people and the environment, the amount of contamination to which people or the ecological environment may be exposed, and the health or ecological effects that could result from that exposure. This risk assessment is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will determine whether any action is needed to protect human health or the ecological environment.

Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

How the EPA conducts risk assessment to protect human health and the environment. Several assessments are included with the guidelines, models, databases, state-based RSL Tables, local contacts and framework documents used to perform these assessments.

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Rhatigan, Jennifer; Charles, John; Hayes, Judith; Wren, Kiley

2006-01-01

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of

Repeated assessments of symptom severity improve predictions for risk of death among patients with cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Sutradhar, Rinku; Atzema, Clare; Seow, Hsien; Earle, Craig; Porter, Joan; Barbera, Lisa

2014-12-01

Although prior studies show the importance of self-reported symptom scores as predictors of cancer survival, most are based on scores recorded at a single point in time. To show that information on repeated assessments of symptom severity improves predictions for risk of death and to use updated symptom information for determining whether worsening of symptom scores is associated with a higher hazard of death. This was a province-based longitudinal study of adult outpatients who had a cancer diagnosis and had assessments of symptom severity. We implemented a time-to-death Cox model with a time-varying covariate for each symptom to account for changing symptom scores over time. This model was compared with that using only a time-fixed (baseline) covariate for each symptom. The regression coefficients of each model were derived based on a randomly selected 60% of patients, and then, the predictive performance of each model was assessed via concordance probabilities when applied to the remaining 40% of patients. This study had 66,112 patients diagnosed with cancer and more than 310,000 assessments of symptoms. The use of repeated assessments of symptom scores improved predictions for risk of death compared with using only baseline symptom scores. Increased pain and fatigue and reduced appetite were the strongest predictors for death. If available, researchers should consider including changing information on symptom scores, as opposed to only baseline information on symptom scores, when examining hazard of death among patients with cancer. Worsening of pain, fatigue, and appetite may be a flag for impending death. Copyright © 2014 American Academy of Hospice and Palliative Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Shape-based assessment of vertebral fracture risk in postmenopausal women using discriminative shape alignment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Crimi, Alessandro; Loog, Marco; de Bruijne, Marleen

2012-01-01

RATIONALE AND OBJECTIVES: Risk assessment of future osteoporotic vertebral fractures is currently based mainly on risk factors, such as bone mineral density, age, prior fragility fractures, and smoking. It can be argued that an osteoporotic vertebral fracture is not exclusively an abrupt event...... independently performed manual annotations of the vertebrae, and fracture prediction using shape features extracted from the baseline annotations was performed. This was implemented using posterior probabilities from a standard linear classifier. RESULTS: The classifier tested on the study population quantified...

Comparison of accuracy of diabetes risk score and components of the metabolic syndrome in assessing risk of incident type 2 diabetes in Inter99 cohort.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tracy B Shafizadeh

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Given the increasing worldwide incidence of diabetes, methods to assess diabetes risk which would identify those at highest risk are needed. We compared two risk-stratification approaches for incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM; factors of metabolic syndrome (MetS and a previously developed diabetes risk score, PreDx® Diabetes Risk Score (DRS. DRS assesses 5 yr risk of incident T2DM based on the measurement of 7 biomarkers in fasting blood. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: DRS was evaluated in baseline serum samples from 4,128 non-diabetic subjects in the Inter99 cohort (Danes aged 30-60 for whom diabetes outcomes at 5 years were known. Subjects were classified as having MetS based on the presence of at least 3 MetS risk factors in baseline clinical data. The sensitivity and false positive rate for predicting diabetes using MetS was compared to DRS. When the sensitivity was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly lower false positive rate. Similarly, when the false positive rate was fixed to match MetS, DRS had a significantly higher specificity. In further analyses, subjects were classified by presence of 0-2, 3 or 4-5 risk factors with matching proportions of subjects distributed among three DRS groups. Comparison between the two risk stratification schemes, MetS risk factors and DRS, were evaluated using Net Reclassification Improvement (NRI. Comparing risk stratification by DRS to MetS factors in the total population, the NRI was 0.146 (p = 0.008 demonstrating DRS provides significantly improved stratification. Additionally, the relative risk of T2DM differed by 15 fold between the low and high DRS risk groups, but only 8-fold between the low and high risk MetS groups. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: DRS provides a more accurate assessment of risk for diabetes than MetS. This improved performance may allow clinicians to focus preventive strategies on those most in need of urgent intervention.

VTE Risk assessment - a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women.

Science.gov (United States)

Heinemann, Lothar Aj; Dominh, Thai; Assmann, Anita; Schramm, Wolfgang; Schürmann, Rolf; Hilpert, Jan; Spannagl, Michael

2005-04-18

BACKGROUND: Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE). There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. MATERIALS AND METHODS: A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER) study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18-55 years), was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993). The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. RESULTS: Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs). A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI) and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation). Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%), moderate risk (21.1%), high risk (6.0%), very high risk of future VTE (0.9%). In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. CONCLUSION: Our prognostic tool - containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data) - seems to be

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Collins, John W.

2011-01-01

Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

Assessing Risk and Driving Risk Mitigation for First-of-a-Kind Advanced Reactors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

John W. Collins

2011-09-01

Planning and decision making amidst programmatic and technological risks represent significant challenges for projects. This presentation addresses the four step risk-assessment process needed to determine clear path forward to mature needed technology and design, license, and construct advanced nuclear power plants, which have never been built before, including Small Modular Reactors. This four step process has been carefully applied to the Next Generation Nuclear Plant. STEP 1 - Risk Identification Risks are identified, collected, and categorized as technical risks, programmatic risks, and project risks, each of which result in cost and schedule impacts if realized. These include risks arising from the use of technologies not previously demonstrated in a relevant application. These risks include normal and accident scenarios which the SMR could experience including events that cause the disablement of engineered safety features (typically documented in Phenomena Identification Ranking Tables (PIRT) as produced with the Nuclear Regulatory Commission) and design needs which must be addressed to further detail the design. Product - Project Risk Register contained in a database with sorting, presentation, rollup, risk work off functionality similar to the NGNP Risk Management System . STEP 2 - Risk Quantification The risks contained in the risk register are then scored for probability of occurrence and severity of consequence, if realized. Here the scoring methodology is established and the basis for the scoring is well documented. Product - Quantified project risk register with documented basis for scoring. STEP 3 - Risk Handling Strategy Risks are mitigated by applying a systematic approach to maturing the technology through Research and Development, modeling, test, and design. A Technology Readiness Assessment is performed to determine baseline Technology Readiness Levels (TRL). Tasks needed to mature the technology are developed and documented in a roadmap

Baseline Quality of Life and Risk of Stroke in the ALLHAT Study (Antihypertensive and Lipid-Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial).

Science.gov (United States)

Shams, Tanzila; Auchus, Alexander P; Oparil, Suzanne; Wright, Clinton B; Wright, Jackson; Furlan, Anthony J; Sila, Cathy A; Davis, Barry R; Pressel, Sara; Yamal, Jose-Miguel; Einhorn, Paula T; Lerner, Alan J

2017-11-01

The visual analogue scale is a self-reported, validated tool to measure quality of life (QoL). Our purpose was to determine whether baseline QoL predicted strokes in the ALLHAT study (Antihypertensive and Lipid Lowering Treatment to Prevent Heart Attack Trial) and evaluate determinants of poststroke change in QoL. In the ALLHAT study, among the 33 357 patients randomized to treatment arms, 1525 experienced strokes; 1202 (79%) strokes were nonfatal. This study cohort includes 32 318 (97%) subjects who completed the baseline visual analogue scale QoL estimate. QoL was measured on a visual analogue scale and adjusted using a Torrance transformation (transformed QoL [TQoL]). Kaplan-Meier curves and adjusted proportional hazards analyses were used to estimate the effect of TQoL on the risk of stroke, on a continuous scale (0-1) and by quartiles (≤0.81, >0.81≤0.89, >0.89≤0.95, >0.95). We analyzed the change from baseline to first poststroke TQoL using adjusted linear regression. After adjusting for multiple stroke risk factors, the hazard ratio for stroke events for baseline TQoL was 0.93 (95% confidence interval, 0.89-0.98) per 0.1 U increase. The lowest baseline TQoL quartile had a 20% increased stroke risk (hazard ratio=1.20 [95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.44]) compared with the reference highest quartile TQoL. Poststroke TQoL change was significant within all treatment groups ( P ≤0.001). Multivariate regression analysis revealed that baseline TQoL was the strongest predictor of poststroke TQoL with similar results for the untransformed QoL. The lowest baseline TQoL quartile had a 20% higher stroke risk than the highest quartile. Baseline TQoL was the only factor that predicted poststroke change in TQoL. URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT00000542. © 2017 American Heart Association, Inc.

Hanford Site's Integrated Risk Assessment Program: No-intervention risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahaffey, J.A.; Dukelow, J.S. Jr.; Stenner, R.D.

1994-08-01

The long-term goal of the Integrated Risk Assessment program (IRAP) is to estimate risks to workers, the public, organizations, and groups with reserved rights to Site access, the ecosystem, and natural resources to aid in managing environmental restoration and waste management at the Hanford Site. For each of these, information is needed about current risks, risks during cleanup, and endstate risks. The objective is three-fold: to determine if and when to remediate, and to what extent; to identify information unavailable but needed to make better cleanup decisions; to establish technology performance criteria for achieving desired cleanup levels; to understand costs and benefits of activities from a Site-wide perspective. The no-intervention risk, assessment is the initial evaluation of public health risks conducted under IRAP. The objective is to identify types of activities that the US Department of Energy (DOE) must accomplish for closure of the Hanford Site, defined as no further DOE intervention. There are two primary conclusions from the no-intervention risk assessment. First, some maintenance and operations activities at Hanford must be continued to protect the public from grave risks. However, when large Hanford expenditures are compared to cleanup progress, funds expended for maintenance and operations must be put in proper perspective. Second, stakeholder's emphasis on public risks at Hanford, as indicated by remediation priorities, are not in line with those estimated. The focus currently is on compliance with regulations, and on dealing with issues which are visible to stakeholders

Are risk estimates biased in follow-up studies of psychosocial factors with low base-line participation?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andersen Johan

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Low participation in population-based follow-up studies addressing psychosocial risk factors may cause biased estimation of health risk but the issue has seldom been examined. We compared risk estimates for selected health outcomes among respondents and the entire source population. Methods In a Danish cohort study of associations between psychosocial characteristics of the work environment and mental health, the source population of public service workers comprised 10,036 employees in 502 work units of which 4,489 participated (participation rate 45%. Data on the psychosocial work environment were obtained for each work unit by calculating the average of the employee self-reports. The average values were assigned all employees and non-respondent at the work unit. Outcome data on sick leave and prescription of antidepressant medication during the follow-up period (1.4.2007-31.12.2008 was obtained by linkage to national registries. Results Respondents differed at baseline from non-respondents by gender, age, employment status, sick leave and hospitalization for affective disorders. However, risk estimates for sick leave and prescription of antidepressant medication, during follow-up, based on the subset of participants, did only differ marginally from risk estimates based upon the entire population. Conclusions We found no indications that low participation at baseline distorts the estimates of associations between the work unit level of psychosocial work environment and mental health outcomes during follow-up. These results may not be valid for other exposures or outcomes.

Chemical Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

This course is aimed at providing an overview of the fundamental guiding principles and general methods used in chemical risk assessment. Chemical risk assessment is a complex and ever-evolving process. These principles and methods have been organized by the National Research Cou...

The influence of baseline risk on the relation between HbA1c and risk for new cardiovascular events and mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and symptomatic cardiovascular disease.

Science.gov (United States)

Bots, Sophie H; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Nathoe, Hendrik M W; de Borst, Gert Jan; Kappelle, Jaap L; Visseren, Frank L J; Westerink, Jan

2016-07-19

Strict glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes has proven to have microvascular benefits while the effects on CVD and mortality are less clear, especially in high risk patients. Whether strict glycaemic control would reduce the risk of future CVD or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing CVD, is unknown. This study aims to evaluate whether the relation between baseline HbA1c and new cardiovascular events or mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and pre-existing cardiovascular disease (CVD) is modified by baseline vascular risk. A cohort of 1096 patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD from the Second Manifestations of ARTerial Disease (SMART) study was followed. The relation between HbA1c at baseline and future vascular events (composite of myocardial infarction, stroke and vascular mortality) and all-cause mortality was evaluated with Cox proportional hazard analyses in a population that was stratified for baseline risk for vascular events as calculated with the SMART risk score. The mean follow-up duration was 6.9 years for all-cause mortality and 6.4 years for vascular events, in which period 243 and 223 cases were reported, respectively. A 1 % increase in HbA1c was associated with a higher risk for all-cause mortality (HR 1.18, 95 % CI 1.06-1.31). This association was also found in the highest SMART risk quartile (HR 1.33, 95 % CI 1.11-1.60). There was no relation between HbA1c and the occurrence of cardiovascular events during follow-up (HR 1.03, 95 % CI 0.91-1.16). The interaction term between HbA1c and SMART risk score was not significantly related to any of the outcomes. In patients with type 2 diabetes and CVD, HbA1c is related to the risk of all-cause mortality, but not to the risk of cardiovascular events. The relation between HbA1c and all-cause mortality in patients with type 2 diabetes and vascular disease is not dependent on baseline vascular risk.

An integrated risk assessment approach: Risk assessment in the programmatic environmental impact statement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morris, J.M.

1994-01-01

The following paper is an informal summary of salient points made in the presentation entitled open-quotes An Integrated Risk Assessment Approach: Risk Assessment in the Programmatic Environmental Impact Statement (PEIS).close quotes. This presentation was given at the U.S. DOE Integrated Planning Workshop in Denver, Colorado on June 2, 1994. Integrated decision analysis is very important in environmental restoration and waste management in the evaluation of such things as land use planning, waste load forecasting, cost analyses, and technology development activities. Integrated risk assessment is an approach that addresses multiple components of risk, including: risks from surplus facilities as well as typical environmental restoration sites, risks to the public, risks to workers, ecological risk, risks before, during and after remediation activities, and others

The relation of risk assessment and health impact assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ádám, Balázs; Gulis, Gabriel

2013-01-01

than assessing a present situation. As part of this process, however, methods applied in risk assessment are used. Risk assessment typically characterises relation of a well-defined risk factor to a well-defined health outcome. Within HIA usually several individual risk assessments are needed...... of the causal chain from the proposal through related health determinants and risk factors to health outcomes. The stepwise analysis, systematic prioritization and consideration of horizontal interactions between the causal pathways make it feasible to use widely recognized risk assessment methods in the HIA......The level and distribution of health risks in a society is substantially influenced by measures of various policies, programmes or projects. Risk assessment can evaluate the nature, likelihood and severity of an adverse effect. Health impact assessment (HIA) provides similar function when used...

Assessment of cardiovascular risk.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Cooney, Marie Therese

2010-10-01

Atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the most common cause of death worldwide. Usually atherosclerosis is caused by the combined effects of multiple risk factors. For this reason, most guidelines on the prevention of CVD stress the assessment of total CVD risk. The most intensive risk factor modification can then be directed towards the individuals who will derive the greatest benefit. To assist the clinician in calculating the effects of these multiple interacting risk factors, a number of risk estimation systems have been developed. This review address several issues regarding total CVD risk assessment: Why should total CVD risk be assessed? What risk estimation systems are available? How well do these systems estimate risk? What are the advantages and disadvantages of the current systems? What are the current limitations of risk estimation systems and how can they be resolved? What new developments have occurred in CVD risk estimation?

Marine terminal baseline criteria and assessment OCIMF; Avaliacao de terminais maritimos - criterio OCIMF

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Soares, Fabio Lindoso; Garcia, Luciano Maldonado [PETROBRAS Transporte S.A. (TRANSPETRO), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2005-07-01

The development of PETROBRAS Transporte S.A. corporate standards, specifically meant for the marine terminals segment and based on the 'Marine Terminal Baseline Criteria and Assessment Questionnaire', published by 'Oil Companies International Marine Forum' was accomplished by a Team of in-house staff with the assistance of international outsourced consultancy. This project resulted in the adjustment of the company's processes to international practices enabling consistent management and operating assessment of marine terminals. (author)

Fort Lewis natural gas and fuel oil energy baseline and efficiency resource assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brodrick, J.R.; Daellenbach, K.K.; Parker, G.B.; Richman, E.E.; Secrest, T.J.; Shankle, S.A.

1993-02-01

The mission of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP) is to lead the improvement of energy efficiency and fuel flexibility within the federal sector. Through the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), FEMP is developing a fuel-neutral approach for identifying, evaluating, and acquiring all cost-effective energy projects at federal installations; this procedure is entitled the Federal Energy Decision Screening (FEDS) system. Through a cooperative program between FEMP and the Army Forces Command (FORSCOM) for providing technical assistance to FORSCOM installations, PNL has been working with the Fort Lewis Army installation to develop the FEDS procedure. The natural gas and fuel oil assessment contained in this report was preceded with an assessment of electric energy usage that was used to implement a cofunded program between Fort Lewis and Tacoma Public Utilities to improve the efficiency of the Fort's electric-energy-using systems. This report extends the assessment procedure to the systems using natural gas and fuel oil to provide a baseline of consumption and an estimate of the energy-efficiency potential that exists for these two fuel types at Fort Lewis. The baseline is essential to segment the end uses that are targets for broad-based efficiency improvement programs. The estimated fossil-fuel efficiency resources are estimates of the available quantities of conservation for natural gas, fuel oils number-sign 2 and number-sign 6, and fuel-switching opportunities by level of cost-effectiveness. The intent of the baseline and efficiency resource estimates is to identify the major efficiency resource opportunities and not to identify all possible opportunities; however, areas of additional opportunity are noted to encourage further effort

Advanced Test Reactor probabilistic risk assessment methodology and results summary

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eide, S.A.; Atkinson, S.A.; Thatcher, T.A.

1992-01-01

The Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) Level 1 report documents a comprehensive and state-of-the-art study to establish and reduce the risk associated with operation of the ATR, expressed as a mean frequency of fuel damage. The ATR Level 1 PRA effort is unique and outstanding because of its consistent and state-of-the-art treatment of all facets of the risk study, its comprehensive and cost-effective risk reduction effort while the risk baseline was being established, and its thorough and comprehensive documentation. The PRA includes many improvements to the state-of-the-art, including the following: establishment of a comprehensive generic data base for component failures, treatment of initiating event frequencies given significant plant improvements in recent years, performance of efficient identification and screening of fire and flood events using code-assisted vital area analysis, identification and treatment of significant seismic-fire-flood-wind interactions, and modeling of large loss-of-coolant accidents (LOCAs) and experiment loop ruptures leading to direct damage of the ATR core. 18 refs

Risk assessment methodology for Hanford high-level waste tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Mac Farlane, D.R.; Stack, D.W.; Kindinger, J.

1992-01-01

A methodology is presented for applying Probabilistic Safety Assessment techniques to quantification of the health risks posed by the high-level waste (HLW) underground tanks at the Department of Energy's Hanford reservation. This methodology includes hazard screening development of a list of potential accident initiators, systems fault trees development and quantification, definition of source terms for various release categories, and estimation of health consequences from the releases. Both airborne and liquid pathway releases to the environment, arising from aerosol and spill/leak releases from the tanks, are included in the release categories. The proposed methodology is intended to be applied to a representative subset of the total of 177 tanks, thereby providing a baseline risk profile for the HLW tank farm that can be used for setting clean-up/remediation priorities. Some preliminary results are presented for Tank 101-SY

Cardiovascular risk factors associated with lower baseline cognitive performance in HIV-positive persons.

Science.gov (United States)

Wright, E J; Grund, B; Robertson, K; Brew, B J; Roediger, M; Bain, M P; Drummond, F; Vjecha, M J; Hoy, J; Miller, C; Penalva de Oliveira, A C; Pumpradit, W; Shlay, J C; El-Sadr, W; Price, R W

2010-09-07

To determine factors associated with baseline neurocognitive performance in HIV-infected participants enrolled in the Strategies for Management of Antiretroviral Therapy (SMART) neurology substudy. Participants from Australia, North America, Brazil, and Thailand were administered a 5-test neurocognitive battery. Z scores and the neurocognitive performance outcome measure, the quantitative neurocognitive performance z score (QNPZ-5), were calculated using US norms. Neurocognitive impairment was defined as z scores penetration effectiveness rank of antiretroviral regimens were not. In this HIV-positive population with high CD4 cell counts, neurocognitive impairment was associated with prior CVD. Lower neurocognitive performance was associated with prior CVD, hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia, but not conventional HAD risk factors. The contribution of CVD and cardiovascular risk factors to the neurocognition of HIV-positive populations warrants further investigation.

The Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (AGIS): 12. Baseline risk factors for sustained loss of visual field and visual acuity in patients with advanced glaucoma.

Science.gov (United States)

2002-10-01

To examine the relationships between baseline risk factors and sustained decrease of visual field (SDVF) and sustained decrease of visual acuity (SDVA). Cohort study of participants in the Advanced Glaucoma Intervention Study (AGIS). This multicenter study enrolled patients between 1988 and 1992 and followed them until 2001; 789 eyes of 591 patients with advanced glaucoma were randomly assigned to one of two surgical sequences, argon laser trabeculoplasty (ALT)-trabeculectomy-trabeculectomy (ATT) or trabeculectomy-ALT-trabeculectomy (TAT). This report is based on data from 747 eyes. Eyes were offered the next intervention in the sequence upon failure of the previous intervention. Failure was based on recurrent intraocular pressure elevation, visual field defect, and disk rim criteria. Study visits occurred every 6 months; potential follow-up ranged from 8 to 13 years. For each intervention sequence, Cox multiple regression analyses were used to examine the baseline characteristics for association with two vision outcomes: SDVF and SDVA. The magnitude of the association is measured by the hazard ratio (HR), where HR for binary variables is the relative change in the hazard (or risk) of the outcome in eyes with the factor divided by the hazard in eyes without the factor, and HR for continuous variables is the relative change in the hazard (or risk) of the outcome in eyes with a unit increase in the factor. Characteristics associated with increased SDVF risk in the ATT sequence are: less baseline visual field defect (hazard ratio [HR] = 0.86, P <.001, 95% CI = 0.82-0.90), male gender (HR = 2.23, P <.001, 1.54-3.23), and worse baseline visual acuity (HR = 0.96, P =.001, 0.94-0.98); in the TAT sequence: less baseline visual field defect (HR = 0.93, P =.001, 0.89-0.97) and diabetes (HR = 1.87, P =.007, 1.18-2.97). Characteristics associated with increased SDVA risk in both treatment sequences are better baseline acuity (ATT: HR = 1.05, P <.001, 1.02-1.09; TAT: HR = 1

Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment for Escherichia coli O157:H7 in Fresh-Cut Lettuce.

Science.gov (United States)

Pang, Hao; Lambertini, Elisabetta; Buchanan, Robert L; Schaffner, Donald W; Pradhan, Abani K

2017-02-01

Leafy green vegetables, including lettuce, are recognized as potential vehicles for foodborne pathogens such as Escherichia coli O157:H7. Fresh-cut lettuce is potentially at high risk of causing foodborne illnesses, as it is generally consumed without cooking. Quantitative microbial risk assessments (QMRAs) are gaining more attention as an effective tool to assess and control potential risks associated with foodborne pathogens. This study developed a QMRA model for E. coli O157:H7 in fresh-cut lettuce and evaluated the effects of different potential intervention strategies on the reduction of public health risks. The fresh-cut lettuce production and supply chain was modeled from field production, with both irrigation water and soil as initial contamination sources, to consumption at home. The baseline model (with no interventions) predicted a mean probability of 1 illness per 10 million servings and a mean of 2,160 illness cases per year in the United States. All intervention strategies evaluated (chlorine, ultrasound and organic acid, irradiation, bacteriophage, and consumer washing) significantly reduced the estimated mean number of illness cases when compared with the baseline model prediction (from 11.4- to 17.9-fold reduction). Sensitivity analyses indicated that retail and home storage temperature were the most important factors affecting the predicted number of illness cases. The developed QMRA model provided a framework for estimating risk associated with consumption of E. coli O157:H7-contaminated fresh-cut lettuce and can guide the evaluation and development of intervention strategies aimed at reducing such risk.

Information needs for risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

DeRosa, C.T.; Choudhury, H.; Schoeny, R.S.

1990-12-31

Risk assessment can be thought of as a conceptual approach to bridge the gap between the available data and the ultimate goal of characterizing the risk or hazard associated with a particular environmental problem. To lend consistency to and to promote quality in the process, the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) published Guidelines for Risk Assessment of Carcinogenicity, Developmental Toxicity, Germ Cell Mutagenicity and Exposure Assessment, and Risk Assessment of Chemical Mixtures. The guidelines provide a framework for organizing the information, evaluating data, and for carrying out the risk assessment in a scientifically plausible manner. In the absence of sufficient scientific information or when abundant data are available, the guidelines provide alternative methodologies that can be employed in the risk assessment. 4 refs., 3 figs., 2 tabs.

Focal species candidates for pesticide risk assessment in European rice fields: A review.

Science.gov (United States)

Vallon, Martin; Dietzen, Christian; Laucht, Silke; Ludwigs, Jan-Dieter

2018-04-25

An assessment of potential risks of pesticides on wildlife is required during the process of product registration within Europe because of the importance of agricultural landscapes as wildlife habitats. Despite their peculiarity and their specific role as artificial wetlands, rice paddies are to date pooled with cereals in guidance documents on how to conduct risk assessments for birds and mammals in Europe. Hence, the focal species currently considered in risk assessments for rice paddies are those known from cereal fields and can therefore be expected to differ significantly from the species actually occurring in the wet environments of rice paddies. We present results of a comprehensive review on bird and mammal species regularly occurring in rice paddies during a time of potential pesticide exposure to identify appropriate focal species candidates for ecotoxicological pesticide risk assessment according to the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA). In addition, we present data on rice cultivation areas and agricultural practices in Europe to give background information supporting the species selection process. Our literature search identified a general scarcity of relevant data, particularly for mammals, which highlights the need for crop-specific focal species studies. However, our results clearly indicate that the relevant bird and mammal species in rice fields indeed differ strongly from the focal species used for the cereal risk assessment. They can thus be used as a baseline for more realistic wildlife risk assessments specific to rice and the development of a revised guidance document to bridge the gap for regulatory decision makers. Integr Environ Assess Manag 2018;00:000-000. © 2018 SETAC. © 2018 SETAC.

Lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and risk of pancreatic cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Naudin, Sabine; Li, Kuanrong; Jaouen, Tristan; Assi, Nada; Kyrø, Cecilie; Tjønneland, Anne; Overvad, Kim; Boutron-Ruault, Marie-Christine; Rebours, Vinciane; Védié, Anne-Laure; Boeing, Heiner; Kaaks, Rudolf; Katzke, Verena; Bamia, Christina; Naska, Androniki; Trichopoulou, Antonia; Berrino, Franco; Tagliabue, Giovanna; Palli, Domenico; Panico, Salvatore; Tumino, Rosario; Sacerdote, Carlotta; Peeters, Petra H; Bueno-de-Mesquita, Bas; Weiderpass Vainio, Elisabete; Gram, Inger Torhild; Skeie, Guri; Chirlaque, Maria-Dolores; Rodríguez-Barranco, Miguel; Barricarte, Aurelio; Quirós, Jose Ramón; Dorronsoro, Miren; Johansson, Ingegerd; Sund, Malin; Sternby, Hanna; Bradbury, Kathryn E; Wareham, Nick; Riboli, Elio; Gunter, Marc; Brennan, Paul; Duell, Eric J; Ferrari, Pietro

2018-01-01

Recent evidence suggested a weak relationship between alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk. In this study, the association between lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and the risk of PC was evaluated, including the type of alcoholic beverages and potential interaction with smoking.

Impacts of the use of institutional controls on risk assessments at Department of Energy facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

White, R.K.; Swindle, D.W. Jr.; Redfearn, A.; King, A.D.; Shaw, R.A.

1992-01-01

The United States Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), in the National Oil and Hazardous Waste Pollution Contingency Plan (NCP), has determined that institutional controls cannot be applied when determining baseline human health risks from exposure to contaminants present at a hazardous waste site. Environmental restoration activities at DOE-OR/ER sites are primarily driven by the Comprehensive Environmental Response, Compensation, and Liability Act of 1980 (CERCLA). Therefore, the report focuses on the approaches and assumptions relating to institutional controls under CERCLA. In order to demonstrate the implications of the use of institutional controls at DOE facilities, this report summarizes the approaches and results of the recent baseline risk assessment for Solid Waste Storage Area 6 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The report concludes with possible options on the use of institutional controls at DOE-OR/ER sites. This report summarizes some of the major issues related to the use of institutional controls at hazardous waste sites under the auspices of DOE-OR/ER. In particular, the report addresses the impacts that assumptions regarding institutional controls have on the results and interpretation of the risk assessment, [in both the Remedial Investigation (RI) and the FS] and provides a case study from an actual DOE site

Probabilistic risk assessment as an aid to risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garrick, B.J.

1982-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessments are providing important insights into nuclear power plant safety. Their value is two-fold: first as a means of quantifying nuclear plant risk including contributors to risk, and second as an aid to risk management. A risk assessment provides an analytical plant model that can be the basis for performing meaningful decision analyses for controlling safety. It is the aspect of quantitative risk management that makes probabilistic risk assessment an important technical discipline of the future

Associations between baseline allergens and polysensitization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carlsen, B.C.; Menne, T.; Johansen, J.D.

2008-01-01

Background: Identification of patients at risk of developing polysensitization is not possible at present. An association between weak sensitizers and polysensitization has been hypothesized. Objectives: To examine associations of 21 allergens in the European baseline series to polysensitization....... Patients/Methods: From a database-based study with 14 998 patients patch tested with the European baseline series between 1985 and 2005, a group of 759 (5.1%) patients were polysensitized. Odds ratios were calculated to determine the relative contribution of each allergen to polysensitization. Results...... denominator for the association between the allergens and the polysensitization was apparent, and any association, whether positive or negative, was relatively low. Based on these results, sensitization to specific baseline allergens cannot be used as risk indicators for polysensitization Udgivelsesdato: 2008...

Associations between baseline allergens and polysensitization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Carlsen, Berit Christina; Menné, Torkil; Johansen, Jeanne Duus

2008-01-01

BACKGROUND: Identification of patients at risk of developing polysensitization is not possible at present. An association between weak sensitizers and polysensitization has been hypothesized. OBJECTIVES: To examine associations of 21 allergens in the European baseline series to polysensitization....... PATIENTS/METHODS: From a database-based study with 14 998 patients patch tested with the European baseline series between 1985 and 2005, a group of 759 (5.1%) patients were polysensitized. Odds ratios were calculated to determine the relative contribution of each allergen to polysensitization. RESULTS...... denominator for the association between the allergens and the polysensitization was apparent, and any association, whether positive or negative, was relatively low. Based on these results, sensitization to specific baseline allergens cannot be used as risk indicators for polysensitization....

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Green River, Utah. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-09-01

The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (phase 1) and the Ground Water Project (phase 2). For the UMTRA Project site located near Green River, Utah, the Surface Project cleanup occurred from 1988 to 1989. The tailings and radioactively contaminated soils and materials were removed from their original locations and placed into a disposal cell on the site. The disposal cell is designed to minimize radiation emissions and minimize further contamination of ground water beneath the site. The UMTRA Project`s second phase, the Ground Water Project, evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and determines a strategy for ground water compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. For the Green River site, the risk assessment helps determine whether human health risks result from exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium processing. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the UMTRA Ground Water Project at the Green River site. What follows is an evaluation of current and possible future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine what is necessary, if anything, to protect human health and the environment while complying with EPA standards.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Green River, Utah. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-09-01

The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (phase 1) and the Ground Water Project (phase 2). For the UMTRA Project site located near Green River, Utah, the Surface Project cleanup occurred from 1988 to 1989. The tailings and radioactively contaminated soils and materials were removed from their original locations and placed into a disposal cell on the site. The disposal cell is designed to minimize radiation emissions and minimize further contamination of ground water beneath the site. The UMTRA Project's second phase, the Ground Water Project, evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and determines a strategy for ground water compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. For the Green River site, the risk assessment helps determine whether human health risks result from exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium processing. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the UMTRA Ground Water Project at the Green River site. What follows is an evaluation of current and possible future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site characterization will be used to determine what is necessary, if anything, to protect human health and the environment while complying with EPA standards

VTE Risk assessment – a prognostic Model: BATER Cohort Study of young women

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Schürmann Rolf

2005-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Community-based cohort studies are not available that evaluated the predictive power of both clinical and genetic risk factors for venous thromboembolism (VTE. There is, however, clinical need to forecast the likelihood of future occurrence of VTE, at least qualitatively, to support decisions about intensity of diagnostic or preventive measures. Materials and methods A 10-year observation period of the Bavarian Thromboembolic Risk (BATER study, a cohort study of 4337 women (18–55 years, was used to develop a predictive model of VTE based on clinical and genetic variables at baseline (1993. The objective was to prepare a probabilistic scheme that discriminates women with virtually no VTE risk from those at higher levels of absolute VTE risk in the foreseeable future. A multivariate analysis determined which variables at baseline were the best predictors of a future VTE event, provided a ranking according to the predictive power, and permitted to design a simple graphic scheme to assess the individual VTE risk using five predictor variables. Results Thirty-four new confirmed VTEs occurred during the observation period of over 32,000 women-years (WYs. A model was developed mainly based on clinical information (personal history of previous VTE and family history of VTE, age, BMI and one composite genetic risk markers (combining Factor V Leiden and Prothrombin G20210A Mutation. Four levels of increasing VTE risk were arbitrarily defined to map the prevalence in the study population: No/low risk of VTE (61.3%, moderate risk (21.1%, high risk (6.0%, very high risk of future VTE (0.9%. In 10.6% of the population the risk assessment was not possible due to lacking VTE cases. The average incidence rates for VTE in these four levels were: 4.1, 12.3, 47.2, and 170.5 per 104 WYs for no, moderate, high, and very high risk, respectively. Conclusion Our prognostic tool – containing clinical information (and if available also genetic data

Assessment of Multiple Intrauterine Gestations from Ovarian Stimulation (AMIGOS) Trial: Baseline Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Diamond, Michael P.; Legro, Richard S.; Coutifaris, Christos; Alvero, Ruben; Robinson, Randal D.; Casson, Peter; Christman, Gregory M.; Ager, Joel; Huang, Hao; Hansen, Karl R.; Baker, Valerie; Usadi, Rebecca; Seungdamrong, Aimee; Bates, G. Wright; Rosen, R. Mitchell; Haisonleder, Daniell; Krawetz, Stephen A.; Barnhart, Kurt; Trussell, J.C.; Jin, Yufeng; Santoro, Nanette; Eisenberg, Esther; Zhang, Heping

2015-01-01

Objective To identify baseline characteristics of women with unexplained infertility to determine whether treatment with an aromatase inhibitor will result in a lower rate of multiple gestations than current standard ovulation induction medications. Design Randomized, prospective clinical trial Patients 900 couples with unexplained infertility Interventions: Ovarian stimulation with gonadotropins, clomiphene citrate, or letrozole in conjunction with intrauterine insemination. Setting Multicenter University based clinical practices. Main Outcome Measures Demographic, laboratory, imaging, and survey characteristics. Interventions Collection of baseline demographics, blood samples, and ultrasonographic assessments. Results Demographic characteristics of women receiving clomiphene citrate, letrozole, or gonadotropins for ovarian stimulation were very consistent. Their mean age was 32.2 ± 4.4 years and infertility duration was 34.7± 25.7 months, with 59% primary infertility. More than 1/3 of the women were current or past smokers. The mean BMI was 27 and mean AMH level was 2.6; only 11 women (1.3%) had antral follicle counts of less than 5. Similar observations were identified for hormonal profiles, ultrasound characterization of the ovaries, semen parameters, and quality of life assessments in both male and female partners. Conclusion The cause of infertility in the couples recruited to this treatment trial is elusive, as the women were regularly ovulating and had evidence of good ovarian reserve both by basal FSH, AMH levels, and antral follicle counts; the male partners had normal semen parameters. The three treatment subgroups have common baseline characteristics, thereby providing comparable patient populations for testing the hypothesis that use of letrozole for ovarian stimulation can reduce the rates of multiples from that observed with gonadotropin and clomiphene citrate treatment. PMID:25707331

Baseline Caesium-137 and Plutonium-239+240 inventory assessment for Central Europe

Science.gov (United States)

Meusburger, Katrin; Borelli, Pasquale; Evrard, Olivier; Ketterer, Michael; Mabit, Lionel; van Oost, Kristof; Alewell, Christine; Panagos, Panos

2017-04-01

Artificial fallout radionuclides (FRNs) such as Caesium-137 and Plutonium-239+240 released as products of the thermonuclear weapons testing that took place from the mid-1950s to the early 1980s and from nuclear power plant accidents (e.g. Chernobyl) are useful tools to quantify soil redistribution. In combination with geostatistics, FRNs may have the potential to bridge the gap between small scale process oriented studies and modelling that simplifies processes and effects over large spatial scales. An essential requirement for the application of FRNs as soil erosion tracers is the establishment of the baseline fallout at undisturbed sites before its comparison to those inventories found at sites undergoing erosion/accumulation. For this purpose, undisturbed topsoil (0-20cm) samples collected in 2009 within the framework of the Land Use/Cover Area frame Survey (LUCAS) have been measured by gamma-spectrometry and ICP-MS to determine 137Cs (n=145) and 239+240Pu (n=108) activities. To restrict the analysis to undisturbed reference sites a geospatial database query selecting only sites having a slope angle <2 degree, outside riparian zones (to avoid depositional sites) and under permanent grassland cover (according to CORINE Land Cover and Landsat) was applied. This study reports preliminary results on the feasibility of establishing a 137Cs and 239+240Pu baseline inventory map for Central Europe. The 137Cs/239+240Pu activity ratios will further allow assessing the rate and the spatial variability of 137Cs Chernobyl fallout. The establishment of such baseline inventory map will provide a unique opportunity to assess soil redistribution for a comparable time-frame (1953-2009) following a harmonised methodological protocol across national boundaries.

Methodology of environmental risk assessment management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Saša T. Bakrač

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Successful protection of environment is mostly based on high-quality assessment of potential and present risks. Environmental risk management is a complex process which includes: identification, assessment and control of risk, namely taking measures in order to minimize the risk to an acceptable level. Environmental risk management methodology: In addition to these phases in the management of environmental risk, appropriate measures that affect the reduction of risk occurrence should be implemented: - normative and legal regulations (laws and regulations, - appropriate organizational structures in society, and - establishing quality monitoring of environment. The emphasis is placed on the application of assessment methodologies (three-model concept, as the most important aspect of successful management of environmental risk. Risk assessment methodology - European concept: The first concept of ecological risk assessment methodology is based on the so-called European model-concept. In order to better understand this ecological risk assessment methodology, two concepts - hazard and risk - are introduced. The European concept of environmental risk assessment has the following phases in its implementation: identification of hazard (danger, identification of consequences (if there is hazard, estimate of the scale of consequences, estimate of consequence probability and risk assessment (also called risk characterization. The European concept is often used to assess risk in the environment as a model for addressing the distribution of stressors along the source - path - receptor line. Risk assessment methodology - Canadian concept: The second concept of the methodology of environmental risk assessment is based on the so-called Canadian model-concept. The assessment of ecological risk includes risk arising from natural events (floods, extreme weather conditions, etc., technological processes and products, agents (chemical, biological, radiological, etc

Strategic Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Derleth, Jason; Lobia, Marcus

2009-01-01

This slide presentation provides an overview of the attempt to develop and demonstrate a methodology for the comparative assessment of risks across the entire portfolio of NASA projects and assets. It includes information about strategic risk identification, normalizing strategic risks, calculation of relative risk score, and implementation options.

Overview of risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rimington, J.D.

1992-01-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits

Overview of risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rimington, J D [Health and Safety Executive (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper begins by defining some terms, and then refer to a number of technical and other difficulties. Finally it attempts to set out why risk assessment is important and what its purposes are. 2) First, risk and risk assessment - what are they?. 3) Risk is a subject of universal significance. Life is very uncertain, and we can achieve no object or benefit in it except by approaching nearer to particular hazards which lie between us and our objects. That approach represents acceptance of risk. 4) Risk assessment is a way of systematising our approach to hazard with a view to determining what is more and what is less risky. It helps us in the end to diminish our exposure while obtaining whatever benefits we have in mind, or to optimise the risks and the benefits.

[Urban ecological risk assessment: a review].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Mei-E; Chen, Wei-Ping; Peng, Chi

2014-03-01

With the development of urbanization and the degradation of urban living environment, urban ecological risks caused by urbanization have attracted more and more attentions. Based on urban ecology principles and ecological risk assessment frameworks, contents of urban ecological risk assessment were reviewed in terms of driven forces, risk resources, risk receptors, endpoints and integrated approaches for risk assessment. It was suggested that types and degrees of urban economical and social activities were the driven forces for urban ecological risks. Ecological functional components at different levels in urban ecosystems as well as the urban system as a whole were the risk receptors. Assessment endpoints involved in changes of urban ecological structures, processes, functional components and the integrity of characteristic and function. Social-ecological models should be the major approaches for urban ecological risk assessment. Trends for urban ecological risk assessment study should focus on setting a definite protection target and criteria corresponding to assessment endpoints, establishing a multiple-parameter assessment system and integrative assessment approaches.

Estimation of baseline lifetime risk of developed cancer related to radiation exposure in China

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Xiaoliang; Niu Haowei; Sun Quanfu; Ma Weidong

2011-01-01

Objective: To introduce the general international method for estimation of lifetime risk of developed cancer, and to estimate the lifetime risk baseline values of several kinds of cancers related to radiation exposures in China. Methods: The risk estimation was based on the data from Chinese Cancer Registry Annual Report (2010) and China Population and Employment Statistics Yearbook (2009), and made according to the method previously published by National Cancer Institute (NCI) in USA. Results: The lifetime risk of all cancer in China in 2007 was estimated to be 27.77%, that of lung cancer 5.96%, that of breast cancer for female 3.34%, that of all leukemia 0.14%, that of thyroid cancer 0.37%. The lifetime risks of all cancer were estimated to be 32.74% for males and 24.73% for females, and that was 36.47% for urban residents and 26.79% for rural people. Conclusions: The lifetime risk of all cancer for males in 2007 was about 1.25 times as much as that for females. The value of all cancer for urban residents was about 1.35 times as much as that for rural residents. The lifetime risk of developed cancers in 2007 in China is lower than that in the developed countries,such as Japan. (authors)

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Monument Valley uranium mill tailings site Cane Valley, Arizona

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1996-03-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (Phase I) and the Ground Water Project (Phase II). Under the UMTRA Surface Project, tailings, radioactive contaminated soil, equipment, and materials associated with the former uranium ore processing at UMTRA Project sites are placed into disposal cells. The cells are designed to reduce radon and other radiation emissions and to minimize further contamination of ground water. Surface cleanup at the Monument Valley UMTRA Project site near Cane Valley, Arizona, was completed in 1994. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination that resulted from the uranium ore processing activities. The Ground Water Project is in its beginning stages. Human health may be at risk from exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium ore processing. Exposure could occur by drinking water pumped out of a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated areas. Adverse ecological and agricultural effects may also result from exposure to contaminated ground water. For example, livestock should not be watered with contaminated ground water. A risk assessment describes a source of contamination, how that contamination reaches people and the environment, the amount of contamination to which people or the ecological environment may be exposed, and the health or ecological effects that could result from that exposure. This risk assessment is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site investigations will be used to determine a compliance strategy to comply with the UMTRA ground water standards.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Monument Valley uranium mill tailings site Cane Valley, Arizona

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-03-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of the Surface Project (Phase I) and the Ground Water Project (Phase II). Under the UMTRA Surface Project, tailings, radioactive contaminated soil, equipment, and materials associated with the former uranium ore processing at UMTRA Project sites are placed into disposal cells. The cells are designed to reduce radon and other radiation emissions and to minimize further contamination of ground water. Surface cleanup at the Monument Valley UMTRA Project site near Cane Valley, Arizona, was completed in 1994. The Ground Water Project evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination that resulted from the uranium ore processing activities. The Ground Water Project is in its beginning stages. Human health may be at risk from exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium ore processing. Exposure could occur by drinking water pumped out of a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated areas. Adverse ecological and agricultural effects may also result from exposure to contaminated ground water. For example, livestock should not be watered with contaminated ground water. A risk assessment describes a source of contamination, how that contamination reaches people and the environment, the amount of contamination to which people or the ecological environment may be exposed, and the health or ecological effects that could result from that exposure. This risk assessment is a site-specific document that will be used to evaluate current and potential future impacts to the public and the environment from exposure to contaminated ground water. The results of this evaluation and further site investigations will be used to determine a compliance strategy to comply with the UMTRA ground water standards

Pipeline integrity: ILI baseline data for QRA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Porter, Todd R. [Tuboscope Pipeline Services, Houston, TX (United States)]. E-mail: tporter@varco.com; Silva, Jose Augusto Pereira da [Pipeway Engenharia, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)]. E-mail: guto@pipeway.com; Marr, James [MARR and Associates, Calgary, AB (Canada)]. E-mail: jmarr@marr-associates.com

2003-07-01

The initial phase of a pipeline integrity management program (IMP) is conducting a baseline assessment of the pipeline system and segments as part of Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA). This gives the operator's integrity team the opportunity to identify critical areas and deficiencies in the protection, maintenance, and mitigation strategies. As a part of data gathering and integration of a wide variety of sources, in-line inspection (ILI) data is a key element. In order to move forward in the integrity program development and execution, the baseline geometry of the pipeline must be determined with accuracy and confidence. From this, all subsequent analysis and conclusions will be derived. Tuboscope Pipeline Services (TPS), in conjunction with Pipeway Engenharia of Brazil, operate ILI inertial navigation system (INS) and Caliper geometry tools, to address this integrity requirement. This INS and Caliper ILI tool data provides pipeline trajectory at centimeter level resolution and sub-metre 3D position accuracy along with internal geometry - ovality, dents, misalignment, and wrinkle/buckle characterization. Global strain can be derived from precise INS curvature measurements and departure from the initial pipeline state. Accurate pipeline elevation profile data is essential in the identification of sag/over bend sections for fluid dynamic and hydrostatic calculations. This data, along with pipeline construction, operations, direct assessment and maintenance data is integrated in LinaViewPRO{sup TM}, a pipeline data management system for decision support functions, and subsequent QRA operations. This technology provides the baseline for an informed, accurate and confident integrity management program. This paper/presentation will detail these aspects of an effective IMP, and experience will be presented, showing the benefits for liquid and gas pipeline systems. (author)

[Forensic assessment of violence risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Pujol Robinat, Amadeo; Mohíno Justes, Susana; Gómez-Durán, Esperanza L

2014-03-01

Over the last 20 years there have been steps forward in the field of scientific research on prediction and handling different violent behaviors. In this work we go over the classic concept of "criminal dangerousness" and the more current of "violence risk assessment". We analyze the evolution of such assessment from the practice of non-structured clinical expert opinion to current actuarial methods and structured clinical expert opinion. Next we approach the problem of assessing physical violence risk analyzing the HCR-20 (Assessing Risk for Violence) and we also review the classic and complex subject of the relation between mental disease and violence. One of the most problematic types of violence, difficult to assess and predict, is sexual violence. We study the different actuarial and sexual violence risk prediction instruments and in the end we advise an integral approach to the problem. We also go through partner violence risk assessment, describing the most frequently used scales, especially SARA (Spouse Assault Risk Assessment) and EPV-R. Finally we give practical advice on risk assessment, emphasizing the importance of having maximum information about the case, carrying out a clinical examination, psychopathologic exploration and the application of one of the described risk assessment scales. We'll have to express an opinion about the dangerousness/risk of future violence from the subject and some recommendations on the conduct to follow and the most advisable treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L. All rights reserved.

[Modular risk analysis for assessing multiple waste sites]: Proceedings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Whelan, G.

1994-01-01

This document contains proceedings from the Integrated Planning Workshop from Strategic Planning to Baselining and Other Objectives. Topics discussed include: stakeholder involvement; regulations; future site use planning; site integration and baseline methods; risk analysis in decision making; land uses; and economics in decision making. Individual records have been processed separately for the database

Risk Assessment and Integration Team (RAIT) Portfolio Risk Analysis Strategy

Science.gov (United States)

Edwards, Michelle

2010-01-01

Impact at management level: Qualitative assessment of risk criticality in conjunction with risk consequence, likelihood, and severity enable development of an "investment policy" towards managing a portfolio of risks. Impact at research level: Quantitative risk assessments enable researchers to develop risk mitigation strategies with meaningful risk reduction results. Quantitative assessment approach provides useful risk mitigation information.

[Risk Assessment and Risk Management of Chemicals in China].

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Tie-yu; Zhou, Yun-qiao; Li, Qi-feng; Lü, Yong-long

2016-02-15

Risk assessment and risk management have been increasingly approved as an effective approach for appropriate disposal and scientific management of chemicals. This study systematically analyzed the risk assessment methods of chemicals from three aspects including health risk, ecological risk and regional risk. Based on the current situation of classification and management towards chemicals in China, a specific framework of risk management on chemicals was proposed by selecting target chemicals, predominant industries and related stakeholders as the objects. The results of the present study will provide scientific support for improving risk assessment and reasonable management of chemicals in China.

Impact of Baseline Assessment Modality on Enrollment and Retention in a Facebook Smoking Cessation Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Villanti, Andrea C; Jacobs, Megan A; Zawistowski, Grace; Brookover, Jody; Stanton, Cassandra A; Graham, Amanda L

2015-07-16

Few studies have addressed enrollment and retention methods in online smoking cessation interventions. Fully automated Web-based trials can yield large numbers of participants rapidly but suffer from high rates of attrition. Personal contact with participants can increase recruitment of smokers into cessation trials and improve participant retention. To compare the impact of Web-based (WEB) and phone (PH) baseline assessments on enrollment and retention metrics in the context of a Facebook smoking cessation study. Participants were recruited via Facebook and Google ads which were randomly displayed to adult smokers in the United States over 27 days from August to September 2013. On each platform, two identical ads were randomly displayed to users who fit the advertising parameters. Clicking on one of the ads resulted in randomization to WEB, and clicking on the other ad resulted in randomization to PH. Following online eligibility screening and informed consent, participants in the WEB arm completed the baseline survey online whereas PH participants completed the baseline survey by phone with a research assistant. All participants were contacted at 30 days to complete a follow-up survey that assessed use of the cessation intervention and smoking outcomes. Participants were paid $15 for follow-up survey completion. A total of 4445 people clicked on the WEB ad and 4001 clicked on the PH ad: 12.04% (n=535) of WEB participants and 8.30% (n=332) of PH participants accepted the online study invitation (PFacebook app (66/114, 57.9% WEB vs 17/35, 49% PH) or that completed the 30-day follow-up survey (49/114, 43.0% WEB vs 16/35, 46% PH). A total of $6074 was spent on ads, generating 3,834,289 impressions and resulting in 8446 clicks (average cost $0.72 per click). Per participant enrollment costs for advertising alone were $27 WEB and $87 PH. A more intensive phone baseline assessment protocol yielded a lower rate of enrollment, equivalent follow-up rates, and higher

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

Science.gov (United States)

Chai, Shauna-Lee; Zhang, Jian; Nixon, Amy; Nielsen, Scott

2016-01-01

Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis), tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis), and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula). We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Increased risk of coronary artery calcification progression in subjects with high baseline Lp(a) levels: The Kangbuk Samsung Health Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Cho, Jung Hwan; Lee, Da Young; Lee, Eun Seo; Kim, Jihyun; Park, Se Eun; Park, Cheol-Young; Lee, Won-Young; Oh, Ki-Won; Park, Sung-Woo; Rhee, Eun-Jung

2016-11-01

Results from previous studies support the association of lipoprotein(a) [Lp(a)] levels and coronary artery disease risk. In this study, we analyzed the association between baseline Lp(a) levels and future progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) in apparently healthy Korean adults. A total of 2611 participants (mean age: 41years, 92% mend) who underwent a routine health check-up in 2010 and 2014 were enrolled. Coronary artery calcium score (CACS) were measured by multi-detector computed tomography. Baseline Lp(a) was measured by high-sensitivity immunoturbidimetric assay. Progression of CAC was defined as a change in CACS >0 over four years. Bivariate correlation analyses with baseline Lp(a) and other metabolic parameters revealed age, total cholesterol, HDL-C, LDL-C and CACS to have a significant positive correlation, while body weight, fasting glucose level, blood pressure and triglyceride level were negatively correlated with baseline Lp(a) level. After four years of follow-up, 635 subjects (24.3%) had CAC progression. The participants who had CAC progression were older, composed of more men, more obese, and had higher fasting glucose levels and worse baseline lipid profiles compared to those who did not have CAC progression. The mean serum Lp(a) level was significantly higher in subjects who had CAC progression compared to those who did not (32.5 vs. 28.9mg/dL, p<0.01). When the risk for CAC progression according to baseline Lp(a) was calculated, those with Lp(a) level≥50mg/dL had an odds ratio of 1.333 (95% CI 1.027-1.730) for CAC progression compared to those with Lp(a)<50mg/dL after adjusting for confounding factors. In this study, the subjects who had higher Lp(a) were at significantly higher risk for CAC progression after four years of follow-up, suggesting the role of high Lp(a) in CAC progression. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and risk of pancreatic cancer in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Naudin, Sabine; Li, Kuanrong; Jaouen, Tristan

2018-01-01

Recent evidence suggested a weak relationship between alcohol consumption and pancreatic cancer (PC) risk. In this study, the association between lifetime and baseline alcohol intakes and the risk of PC was evaluated, including the type of alcoholic beverages and potential interaction with smoking...... alcohol intakes were positively associated with PC risk, with more apparent risk estimates for beer and spirits/liquors than wine intake. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved....

Patient caries risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Twetman, Svante; Fontana, Margherita

2009-01-01

Risk assessment is an essential component in the decision-making process for the correct prevention and management of dental caries. Multiple risk factors and indicators have been proposed as targets in the assessment of risk of future disease, varying sometimes based on the age group at which...... they are targeted. Multiple reviews and systematic reviews are available in the literature on this topic. This chapter focusses primarily on results of reviews based on longitudinal studies required to establish the accuracy of caries risk assessment. These findings demonstrate that there is a strong body...... of evidence to support that caries experience is still, unfortunately, the single best predictor for future caries development. In young children, prediction models which include a variety of risk factors seem to increase the accuracy of the prediction, while the usefulness of additional risk factors...

Baseline Blood Pressure, the 2017 ACC/AHA High Blood Pressure Guidelines, and Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk in SPRINT

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Vaduganathan, Muthiah; Pareek, Manan; Qamar, Arman

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: The 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines include lower thresholds to define hypertension than previous guidelines. Little is known about the impact of these guideline changes in patients with or at high risk for cardiovascular disease. METHODS: In this exploratory analysis using baseline blood...... pressure assessments in SPRINT (Systolic Blood Pressure Intervention Trial), we evaluated the prevalence and associated cardiovascular prognosis of patients newly reclassified with hypertension based on the 2017 ACC/AHA (SBP≥130mmHg or DBP≥80mmHg) compared with the JNC 7 guidelines (SBP≥140mmHg or DBP≥90mm.......4%) were newly reclassified as having hypertension based on the 2017 ACC/AHA guidelines. Over 3.3-year median follow-up, 319 patients experienced the primary endpoint (87 of whom were newly reclassified with hypertension based on the revised guidelines). Patients with hypertension based on prior guidelines...

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-09-01

For the UMTRA Project site located near Durango, Colorado (the Durango site), the Surface Project cleanup occurred from 1986 to 1991. An evaluation was made to determine whether exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium processing could affect people's health. Exposure could occur from drinking water pumped from a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated ground water area. In addition, environmental risks may result if plants or animals are exposed to contaminated ground water, or surface water that has mixed with contaminated ground water. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the UMTRA Ground Water Project at the Durango site. The results of this report and further site characterization of the Durango site will be used to determine what is necessary to protect public health and the environment, and to comply with the EPA standards

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Durango, Colorado. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-09-01

For the UMTRA Project site located near Durango, Colorado (the Durango site), the Surface Project cleanup occurred from 1986 to 1991. An evaluation was made to determine whether exposure to ground water contaminated by uranium processing could affect people`s health. Exposure could occur from drinking water pumped from a hypothetical well drilled in the contaminated ground water area. In addition, environmental risks may result if plants or animals are exposed to contaminated ground water, or surface water that has mixed with contaminated ground water. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the UMTRA Ground Water Project at the Durango site. The results of this report and further site characterization of the Durango site will be used to determine what is necessary to protect public health and the environment, and to comply with the EPA standards.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Site near Tuba City, Arizona

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1994-06-01

This document evaluates potential public health or environmental impacts resulting from ground water contamination at the former uranium mill site. The tailings and other contaminated material at this site were placed in a disposal cell on the site in 1990 by the US Department of Energy's Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project. The second phase of the UMTRA Project is to evaluate ground water contamination. This risk assessment is the first site-specific document under the Ground Water Project. It will help determine what remedial actions are necessary for contaminated ground water at the site

Building better environmental risk assessments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raymond eLayton

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERA for genetically modified (GM crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data, and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems – examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines. PMID:26301217

Building Better Environmental Risk Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Layton, Raymond; Smith, Joe; Macdonald, Phil; Letchumanan, Ramatha; Keese, Paul; Lema, Martin

2015-01-01

Risk assessment is a reasoned, structured approach to address uncertainty based on scientific and technical evidence. It forms the foundation for regulatory decision-making, which is bound by legislative and policy requirements, as well as the need for making timely decisions using available resources. In order to be most useful, environmental risk assessments (ERAs) for genetically modified (GM) crops should provide consistent, reliable, and transparent results across all types of GM crops, traits, and environments. The assessments must also separate essential information from scientific or agronomic data of marginal relevance or value for evaluating risk and complete the assessment in a timely fashion. Challenges in conducting ERAs differ across regulatory systems - examples are presented from Canada, Malaysia, and Argentina. One challenge faced across the globe is the conduct of risk assessments with limited resources. This challenge can be overcome by clarifying risk concepts, placing greater emphasis on data critical to assess environmental risk (for example, phenotypic and plant performance data rather than molecular data), and adapting advances in risk analysis from other relevant disciplines.

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

A spatial assessment framework for evaluating flood risk under extreme climates.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yun; Liu, Rui; Barrett, Damian; Gao, Lei; Zhou, Mingwei; Renzullo, Luigi; Emelyanova, Irina

2015-12-15

Australian coal mines have been facing a major challenge of increasing risk of flooding caused by intensive rainfall events in recent years. In light of growing climate change concerns and the predicted escalation of flooding, estimating flood inundation risk becomes essential for understanding sustainable mine water management in the Australian mining sector. This research develops a spatial multi-criteria decision making prototype for the evaluation of flooding risk at a regional scale using the Bowen Basin and its surroundings in Queensland as a case study. Spatial gridded data, including climate, hydrology, topography, vegetation and soils, were collected and processed in ArcGIS. Several indices were derived based on time series of observations and spatial modeling taking account of extreme rainfall, evapotranspiration, stream flow, potential soil water retention, elevation and slope generated from a digital elevation model (DEM), as well as drainage density and proximity extracted from a river network. These spatial indices were weighted using the analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and integrated in an AHP-based suitability assessment (AHP-SA) model under the spatial risk evaluation framework. A regional flooding risk map was delineated to represent likely impacts of criterion indices at different risk levels, which was verified using the maximum inundation extent detectable by a time series of remote sensing imagery. The result provides baseline information to help Bowen Basin coal mines identify and assess flooding risk when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in this research offers the Australian mining industry, and social and environmental studies around the world, an effective way to produce reliable assessment on flood risk for managing uncertainty in water availability under climate change. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Examining the Perceived Value of Integration of Earned Value Management with Risk Management-Based Performance Measurement Baseline

Science.gov (United States)

Shah, Akhtar H.

2014-01-01

Many projects fail despite the use of evidence-based project management practices such as Performance Measurement Baseline (PMB), Earned Value Management (EVM) and Risk Management (RM). Although previous researchers have found that integrated project management techniques could be more valuable than the same techniques used by themselves, these…

RISK MANAGEMENT: AN INTEGRATED APPROACH TO RISK MANAGEMENT AND ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Szabo Alina

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of this paper is to offer an overview over risk management cycle by focusing on prioritization and treatment, in order to ensure an integrated approach to risk management and assessment, and establish the ‘top 8-12’ risks report within the organization. The interface with Internal Audit is ensured by the implementation of the scoring method to prioritize risks collected from previous generated risk report. Methodology/approach: Using evidence from other research in the area and the professional expertise, this article outlines an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management reporting processes, by separating the risk in two main categories: strategic and operational risks. The focus is on risk prioritization and scoring; the final output will comprise a mix of strategic and operational (‘top 8-12’ risks, which should be used to establish the annual Internal Audit plan. Originality/value: By using an integrated approach to risk assessment and risk management will eliminate the need for a separate Internal Audit risk assessment over prevailing risks. It will reduce the level of risk assessment overlap by different functions (Tax, Treasury, Information System over the same risk categories as a single methodology, is used and will align timings of risk assessment exercises. The risk prioritization by usage of risk and control scoring criteria highlights the combination between financial and non-financial impact criteria allowing risks that do not naturally lend themselves to a financial amount to be also assessed consistently. It is emphasized the usage of score method to prioritize the risks included in the annual audit plan in order to increase accuracy and timelines.

Inherent Risk Factors for Nosocomial Infection in the Long Stay Critically Ill Child Without Known Baseline Immunocompromise: A Post Hoc Analysis of the CRISIS Trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Carcillo, Joseph A; Dean, J Michael; Holubkov, Richard; Berger, John; Meert, Kathleen L; Anand, Kanwaljeet J S; Zimmerman, Jerry; Newth, Christopher J; Harrison, Rick; Burr, Jeri; Willson, Douglas F; Nicholson, Carol; Bell, Michael J; Berg, Robert A; Shanley, Thomas P; Heidemann, Sabrina M; Dalton, Heidi; Jenkins, Tammara L; Doctor, Allan; Webster, Angie

2016-11-01

Nosocomial infection remains an important health problem in long stay (>3 days) pediatric intensive care unit (PICU) patients. Admission risk factors related to the development of nosocomial infection in long stay immune competent patients in particular are not known. Post-hoc analysis of the previously published Critical Illness Stress induced Immune Suppression (CRISIS) prevention trial database, to identify baseline risk factors for nosocomial infection. Because there was no difference between treatment arms of that study in nosocomial infection in the population without known baseline immunocompromise, both arms were combined and the cohort that developed nosocomial infection was compared with the cohort that did not. There were 254 long stay PICU patients without known baseline immunocompromise. Ninety (35%) developed nosocomial infection, and 164 (65%) did not. Admission characteristics associated with increased nosocomial infection risk were increased age, higher Pediatric Risk of Mortality version III score, the diagnoses of trauma or cardiac arrest and lymphopenia (P risk of developing nosocomial infection (P risk factors (P < 0.05); whereas trauma tended to be related to nosocomial infection development (P = 0.07). These data suggest that increasing age, cardiac arrest and lymphopenia predispose long stay PICU patients without known baseline immunocompromise to nosocomial infection. These findings may inform pre-hoc stratification randomization strategies for prospective studies designed to prevent nosocomial infection in this population.

Patrick Air Force Base integrated resource assessment. Volume 2, Baseline detail

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wahlstrom, R.R.; King, D.A.; Parker, S.A.; Sandusky, W.F.

1993-08-01

The US Air Force has tasked the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL), in support of the US Department of Energy (DOE) Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP), to assess energy use at Patrick Air Force Base (AFB). The information obtained from this assessment will be used in identifying energy resource opportunities to reduce overall energy consumption on the base. The primary focus of this report is to assess the current baseline energy consumption at Patrick AFB. It is a comparison report to Volume 1, the Executive Summary, and Volume 3, the Resource Assessment. This assessment requires that information be obtained and characterized for buildings, utilities, energy sources, energy uses, and load profile information to be used to improve the characterization of energy use on the base. The characteristics of electricity, natural gas, and No. 2 fuel oil are analyzed for on-base facilities and housing. The assessment examines basic regional information used to determine energy-use intensity (EUI) values for Patrick AFB facilities by building, fuel type, and energy end use. It also provides a summary of electricity consumption from Florida Power and Light Company (FPL) metered data for 1985-1991. Load profile information obtained from FPL data is presented for the north and south substations for the four seasons of the year, including weekdays and weekends.

An assessment of adult risks of paresthesia due to mercury from coal combustion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.; Dephillips, M.; Viren, J.; Saroff, L. [Brookhaven National Laboratory, Upton, NY (United States). Dept. of Applied Science

1995-02-01

This paper presents a probabilistic assessment of the risks of transient adult paresthesia (tingling of the extremities) resulting from ingestion of methylmercury (MeHg) in fish and shellfish. Two scenarios are evaluated: the baseline, in which the MeHg dose results from the combined effects of eating canned tuna fish, various marine seafood, and freshwater sportfish, and an impact scenario in which the Hg content of the freshwater sportfish is increased due to local deposition from a hypothetical 1000 Mw{sub e} coal-fired power plant. Measurements from the literature are used to establish the parameters of the baseline, including atmospheric rates of Hg deposition and the distributions of MeHg in fish. The Hg intake for the impact scenario is then based on linear scaling of the additional annual Hg deposition as estimated from a Guassian plume dispersion model. Human health responses are based on a logistic fit to the frequencies of paresthesia observed during a grain poisoning incident in Iraq 1971-2. Based on a background prevalence rate of 2.2% for adult paresthesia, the assessment predicts a 5% chance that the increase in paresthesia prevalence due to either baseline or incremental MeHg doses might approach about 1% of the background prevalence rate. 15 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs.

Effectiveness of a national cardiovascular disease risk assessment program (NHS Health Check): results after one year.

Science.gov (United States)

Artac, Macide; Dalton, Andrew R H; Majeed, Azeem; Car, Josip; Millett, Christopher

2013-08-01

We aimed to assess whether the National Health Service (NHS) Health Check, a systematic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment and management program, was associated with reduction in CVD risk in attendees after one year. We extracted data from patients aged 40-74 years, with high estimated CVD risk, who were registered with general practices in a deprived, culturally diverse setting in England. We included 4748 patients at baseline (July 2008-November 2009), with 3712 at follow-up (December 2009-March 2011). We used a pre-post study design to assess changes in global CVD risk, individual CVD risk factors and statin prescription in patients with a complete and partial Health Check. There were significant reductions in mean CVD risk score (28.2%; 95% confidence interval (CI)=27.3-29.1 to 26.2%; 95% CI, 25.4-27.1), diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol levels and lipid ratios after one year in patients with a complete Health Check. Statin prescription increased from 14.0% (95% CI=11.9-16.0) to 60.6% (95% CI=57.7-63.5). The introduction of NHS Health Check was associated with significant but modest reductions in CVD risk among screened high-risk individuals. Further cost-effectiveness analysis and work accounting for uptake is required to assess whether the program can make significant changes to population health. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Evaluation of the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator in a High-Risk Screening Population

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David J.; Boorjian, Stephen A.; Ruth, Karen; Egleston, Brian L.; Chen, David Y.T.; Viterbo, Rosalia; Uzzo, Robert G.; Buyyounouski, Mark K.; Raysor, Susan; Giri, Veda N.

2009-01-01

Introduction Clinical factors in addition to PSA have been evaluated to improve risk assessment for prostate cancer. The Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial (PCPT) risk calculator provides an assessment of prostate cancer risk based on age, PSA, race, prior biopsy, and family history. This study evaluated the risk calculator in a screening cohort of young, racially diverse, high-risk men with a low baseline PSA enrolled in the Prostate Cancer Risk Assessment Program. Patients and Methods Eligibility for PRAP include men ages 35-69 who are African-American, have a family history of prostate cancer, or have a known BRCA1/2 mutation. PCPT risk scores were determined for PRAP participants, and were compared to observed prostate cancer rates. Results 624 participants were evaluated, including 382 (61.2%) African-American men and 375 (60%) men with a family history of prostate cancer. Median age was 49.0 years (range 34.0-69.0), and median PSA was 0.9 (range 0.1-27.2). PCPT risk score correlated with prostate cancer diagnosis, as the median baseline risk score in patients diagnosed with prostate cancer was 31.3%, versus 14.2% in patients not diagnosed with prostate cancer (p<0.0001). The PCPT calculator similarly stratified the risk of diagnosis of Gleason score ≥7 disease, as the median risk score was 36.2% in patients diagnosed with Gleason ≥7 prostate cancer versus 15.2% in all other participants (p<0.0001). Conclusion PCPT risk calculator score was found to stratify prostate cancer risk in a cohort of young, primarily African-American men with a low baseline PSA. These results support further evaluation of this predictive tool for prostate cancer risk assessment in high-risk men. PMID:19709072

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waterhouse, Rachel

1992-01-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered

Risk assessment: 'A consumer's perspective'

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Waterhouse, Rachel [Consumer' s Association, Health and Safety Commission (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

The paper assesses the concept of risk, risk assessment and tolerability of risk from consumer point of view. Review of existing UK and EC directives on certain products and appliances is also covered.

High baseline left ventricular and systolic volume may identify patients at risk of chemotherapy-induced cardiotoxicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atiar Rahman; Alex Gedevanishvili; Seham Ali; Elma G Briscoe; Vani Vijaykumar

2004-01-01

Introduction and Methods: Use of chemotherapeutic drugs in the treatment of cancer may lead to serious cardiotoxicity and to post-treatment heart failure. Various strategies have been developed to minimize the risk of cardiotoxicity including avoiding the total dosage given to each patient above a certain 'threshold' value; and monitoring the patient's cardiac function by means of the 'Multiple Gated Acquisition' (MUGA) scan using Technetium 99m . However, even with all these precautions some patients still develop cardiotoxicity and it is not well known which factors predict deterioration of cardiac functions in patients with optimized chemotherapeutic dosages. In this retrospective study we sought to evaluate the predictive value of seven variables (age, sex, baseline LV ejection fraction, LV end diastolic [LDEDV] and end systolic volumes [LVESV], peak diastolic filling rate, preexisting malignancies requiring chemotherapy) in 172 patients (n=Breast Carcinoma 86, lymphoma 62, Leukemias and others 24) undergoing chemotherapy from 1995 until 2000. There was no cut off for left ventricular ejection fraction prior to chemotherapy. However, patients were excluded from analysis if they had significant cardiac arrhythmias or received doses higher than considered safe for cardiotoxicity at the beginning of the study. Significant cardiotoxicity was defined as a drop in post chemotherapy LVEF by >15%. Results: Logistic regression models were used to predict the probability of developing cardiotoxicity as a function of the seven prognostic covariates. The mean age of all patients was 51+13 years. Significant Cardiac toxicity was noted in 10 percent of patients. The overall risk estimate for subsequent heart failure after chemotherapy, however, climbed to 18 percent in patients with a presenting LVESD >50 mL. Using multivariate logistic regression model, older age was noted to be a weak risk factors for cardiac toxicity (confidence interval 0.8-1.2; p 50 mL) appeared to

Using risk assessment in periodontics.

Science.gov (United States)

Woodman, Alan J

2014-08-01

Risk assessment has become a regular feature in both dental practice and society as a whole, and principles used to assess risk in society are similar to those used in a clinical setting. Although the concept of risk assessment as a prognostic indicator for periodontal disease incidence and activity is well established in the management of periodontitis, the use of risk assessment to manage the practical treatment of periodontitis and its sequelae appears to have less foundation. A simple system of initial risk assessment - building on the use of the Basic Periodontal Examination (BPE), clinical, medical and social factors - is described, linked to protocols for delivering care suited to general dental practice and stressing the role of long-term supportive care. The risks of not treating the patient are considered, together with the possible causes of failure, and the problems of successful treatment are illustrated by the practical management of post-treatment recession.

A total risk assessment methodology for security assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Auilar, Richard; Pless, Daniel J.; Kaplan, Paul Garry; Silva, Consuelo Juanita; Rhea, Ronald Edward; Wyss, Gregory Dane; Conrad, Stephen Hamilton

2009-01-01

Sandia National Laboratories performed a two-year Laboratory Directed Research and Development project to develop a new collaborative risk assessment method to enable decision makers to fully consider the interrelationships between threat, vulnerability, and consequence. A five-step Total Risk Assessment Methodology was developed to enable interdisciplinary collaborative risk assessment by experts from these disciplines. The objective of this process is promote effective risk management by enabling analysts to identify scenarios that are simultaneously achievable by an adversary, desirable to the adversary, and of concern to the system owner or to society. The basic steps are risk identification, collaborative scenario refinement and evaluation, scenario cohort identification and risk ranking, threat chain mitigation analysis, and residual risk assessment. The method is highly iterative, especially with regard to scenario refinement and evaluation. The Total Risk Assessment Methodology includes objective consideration of relative attack likelihood instead of subjective expert judgment. The 'probability of attack' is not computed, but the relative likelihood for each scenario is assessed through identifying and analyzing scenario cohort groups, which are groups of scenarios with comparable qualities to the scenario being analyzed at both this and other targets. Scenarios for the target under consideration and other targets are placed into cohort groups under an established ranking process that reflects the following three factors: known targeting, achievable consequences, and the resources required for an adversary to have a high likelihood of success. The development of these target cohort groups implements, mathematically, the idea that adversaries are actively choosing among possible attack scenarios and avoiding scenarios that would be significantly suboptimal to their objectives. An adversary who can choose among only a few comparable targets and scenarios (a

D and D alternatives risk assessment for Building 3515 at Oak Ridge National Laboratory, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robers, S.K.; Golden, K.M.

1995-09-01

This report presents the results of the Level 3 Decontamination and Decommissioning (D and D) Alternatives Risk Assessment (DARA) performed on Building 3515 located at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL). The goal of the risk evaluation process is to provide risk information necessary to assist decision making for Environmental Restoration (ER) Program D and D facilities. This risk information is developed in the baseline risk assessment (BRA) and in the DARA. The BRA provides risk information necessary for determining whether or not a facility represents an unacceptable risk and requires remediation. In addition, the BRA also provides an estimation of the risks associated with the no-action alternative for use in the DARA. The objective of this Level 3 DARA is to evaluate and document the potential risks to human health, human safety, and the environment associated with the proposed remedial action at Building 3515. A Level 3 assessment is the least rigorous type of DARA. The decision to conduct a Level 3 DARA was based on the fact that characterization data from the facility are limited, and currently only one remedial alternative (complete dismantlement) is being evaluated in addition to the no-action alternative. The results of the DARA along with cost and engineering information may be used by project managers in making decisions regarding the final disposition of Building 3515. This Level 3 assessment meets the requirements of the streamlined risk assessment necessary for an Engineering Evaluation/Cost Analysis (EE/CA)

A workplace email-linked website intervention for modifying cancer-related dietary and lifestyle risk factors: rationale, design and baseline findings.

Science.gov (United States)

Ang, Y K; Mirnalini, K; Zalilah, M S

2013-04-01

The use of email and website as channels for workplace health information delivery is not fully explored. This study aims to describe the rationale, design, and baseline findings of an email-linked website intervention to improve modifiable cancer risk factors. Employees of a Malaysian public university were recruited by systematic random sampling and randomised into an intervention (n = 174) or control group (n = 165). A website was developed for the intervention and educational modules were uploaded onto the website. The intervention group received ten consecutive weekly emails with hypertext links to the website for downloading the modules and two individual phone calls as motivational support whilst the control group received none. Diet, lifestyle, anthropometric measurements, psychosocial factors and stages of change related to dietary fat, fruit and vegetable intake, and physical activity were assessed. Participants were predominantly female and in non-academic positions. Obesity was prevalent in 15% and 37% were at risk of co-morbidities. Mean intake of fats was 31%, fruit was -1 serving/day and vegetable was < 1 serving/day. Less than 20% smoked and drank alcohol and about 40% were physically inactive. The majority of the participants fell into the Preparation stage for decreasing fat intake, eating more fruit and vegetables, and increasing physical activity. Self-efficacy and perceived benefits were lowest among participants in the Precontemplation/Contemplation stage compared to the Preparation and Action/Maintenance stages. Baseline data show that dietary and lifestyle practices among the employees did not meet the international guidelines for cancer prevention. Hence the findings warrant the intervention planned.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cathryn Clarke Murray

Full Text Available The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such "indirect risks" can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their "at-risk status" designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but-by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here-they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within.

24 CFR 35.315 - Risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 24 Housing and Urban Development 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Risk assessment. 35.315 Section 35... Provided by a Federal Agency Other Than HUD § 35.315 Risk assessment. Each owner shall complete a risk assessment in accordance with 40 CFR 745.227(d). Each risk assessment shall be completed in accordance with...

Exploring the uncertainties in cancer risk assessment using the integrated probabilistic risk assessment (IPRA) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Slob, Wout; Bakker, Martine I; Biesebeek, Jan Dirk Te; Bokkers, Bas G H

2014-08-01

Current methods for cancer risk assessment result in single values, without any quantitative information on the uncertainties in these values. Therefore, single risk values could easily be overinterpreted. In this study, we discuss a full probabilistic cancer risk assessment approach in which all the generally recognized uncertainties in both exposure and hazard assessment are quantitatively characterized and probabilistically evaluated, resulting in a confidence interval for the final risk estimate. The methodology is applied to three example chemicals (aflatoxin, N-nitrosodimethylamine, and methyleugenol). These examples illustrate that the uncertainty in a cancer risk estimate may be huge, making single value estimates of cancer risk meaningless. Further, a risk based on linear extrapolation tends to be lower than the upper 95% confidence limit of a probabilistic risk estimate, and in that sense it is not conservative. Our conceptual analysis showed that there are two possible basic approaches for cancer risk assessment, depending on the interpretation of the dose-incidence data measured in animals. However, it remains unclear which of the two interpretations is the more adequate one, adding an additional uncertainty to the already huge confidence intervals for cancer risk estimates. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Supporting Risk Assessment: Accounting for Indirect Risk to Ecosystem Components

Science.gov (United States)

Mach, Megan E.; Martone, Rebecca G.; Singh, Gerald G.; O, Miriam; Chan, Kai M. A.

2016-01-01

The multi-scalar complexity of social-ecological systems makes it challenging to quantify impacts from human activities on ecosystems, inspiring risk-based approaches to assessments of potential effects of human activities on valued ecosystem components. Risk assessments do not commonly include the risk from indirect effects as mediated via habitat and prey. In this case study from British Columbia, Canada, we illustrate how such “indirect risks” can be incorporated into risk assessments for seventeen ecosystem components. We ask whether (i) the addition of indirect risk changes the at-risk ranking of the seventeen ecosystem components and if (ii) risk scores correlate with trophic prey and habitat linkages in the food web. Even with conservative assumptions about the transfer of impacts or risks from prey species and habitats, the addition of indirect risks in the cumulative risk score changes the ranking of priorities for management. In particular, resident orca, Steller sea lion, and Pacific herring all increase in relative risk, more closely aligning these species with their “at-risk status” designations. Risk assessments are not a replacement for impact assessments, but—by considering the potential for indirect risks as we demonstrate here—they offer a crucial complementary perspective for the management of ecosystems and the organisms within. PMID:27632287

Avalanche risk assessment in Russia

Science.gov (United States)

Komarov, Anton; Seliverstov, Yury; Sokratov, Sergey; Glazovskaya, Tatiana; Turchaniniva, Alla

2017-04-01

The avalanche prone area covers about 3 million square kilometers or 18% of total area of Russia and pose a significant problem in most mountain regions of the country. The constant growth of economic activity, especially in the North Caucasus region and therefore the increased avalanche hazard lead to the demand of the large-scale avalanche risk assessment methods development. Such methods are needed for the determination of appropriate avalanche protection measures as well as for economic assessments during all stages of spatial planning of the territory. The requirement of natural hazard risk assessments is determined by the Federal Law of Russian Federation. However, Russian Guidelines (SP 11-103-97; SP 47.13330.2012) are not clearly presented concerning avalanche risk assessment calculations. A great size of Russia territory, vast diversity of natural conditions and large variations in type and level of economic development of different regions cause significant variations in avalanche risk values. At the first stage of research the small scale avalanche risk assessment was performed in order to identify the most common patterns of risk situations and to calculate full social risk and individual risk. The full social avalanche risk for the territory of country was estimated at 91 victims. The area of territory with individual risk values lesser then 1×10(-6) covers more than 92 % of mountain areas of the country. Within these territories the safety of population can be achieved mainly by organizational activities. Approximately 7% of mountain areas have 1×10(-6) - 1×10(-4) individual risk values and require specific mitigation measures to protect people and infrastructure. Territories with individual risk values 1×10(-4) and above covers about 0,1 % of the territory and include the most severe and hazardous mountain areas. The whole specter of mitigation measures is required in order to minimize risk. The future development of such areas is not recommended

Risk assessment in international operations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stricklin, Daniela L.

2008-01-01

During international peace-keeping missions, a diverse number of non-battle hazards may be encountered, which range from heavily polluted areas, endemic disease, toxic industrial materials, local violence, traffic, and even psychological factors. Hence, elevated risk levels from a variety of sources are encountered during deployments. With the emphasis within the Swedish military moving from national defense towards prioritization of international missions in atypical environments, the risk of health consequences, including long term health effects, has received greater consideration. The Swedish military is interested in designing an optimal approach for assessment of health threats during deployments. The Medical Intelligence group at FOI CBRN Security and Defence in Umea has, on request from and in collaboration with the Swedish Armed Forces, reviewed a variety of international health threat and risk assessment models for military operations. Application of risk assessment methods used in different phases of military operations will be reviewed. An overview of different international approaches used in operational risk management (ORM) will be presented as well as a discussion of the specific needs and constraints for health risk assessment in military operations. This work highlights the specific challenges of risk assessment that are unique to the deployment setting such as the assessment of exposures to a variety of diverse hazards concurrently

Implications of probabilistic risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cullingford, M.C.; Shah, S.M.; Gittus, J.H.

1987-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an analytical process that quantifies the likelihoods, consequences and associated uncertainties of the potential outcomes of postulated events. Starting with planned or normal operation, probabilistic risk assessment covers a wide range of potential accidents and considers the whole plant and the interactions of systems and human actions. Probabilistic risk assessment can be applied in safety decisions in design, licensing and operation of industrial facilities, particularly nuclear power plants. The proceedings include a review of PRA procedures, methods and technical issues in treating uncertainties, operating and licensing issues and future trends. Risk assessment for specific reactor types or components and specific risks (eg aircraft crashing onto a reactor) are used to illustrate the points raised. All 52 articles are indexed separately. (U.K.)

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms{open_quote} risk assessment{close_quote} and{open_quote} risk management{close_quote} are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of {open_quotes}... the most significant data and uncertainties...{close_quotes} in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are {open_quotes}...those that define and explain the main risk conclusions{close_quotes}. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation.

Uncertainties in risk assessment at USDOE facilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hamilton, L.D.; Holtzman, S.; Meinhold, A.F.; Morris, S.C.; Rowe, M.D.

1994-01-01

The United States Department of Energy (USDOE) has embarked on an ambitious program to remediate environmental contamination at its facilities. Decisions concerning cleanup goals, choices among cleanup technologies, and funding prioritization should be largely risk-based. Risk assessments will be used more extensively by the USDOE in the future. USDOE needs to develop and refine risk assessment methods and fund research to reduce major sources of uncertainty in risk assessments at USDOE facilities. The terms open-quote risk assessment close-quote and open-quote risk management close-quote are frequently confused. The National Research Council (1983) and the United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA, 1991a) described risk assessment as a scientific process that contributes to risk management. Risk assessment is the process of collecting, analyzing and integrating data and information to identify hazards, assess exposures and dose responses, and characterize risks. Risk characterization must include a clear presentation of open-quotes... the most significant data and uncertainties...close quotes in an assessment. Significant data and uncertainties are open-quotes...those that define and explain the main risk conclusionsclose quotes. Risk management integrates risk assessment information with other considerations, such as risk perceptions, socioeconomic and political factors, and statutes, to make and justify decisions. Risk assessments, as scientific processes, should be made independently of the other aspects of risk management (USEPA, 1991a), but current methods for assessing health risks are based on conservative regulatory principles, causing unnecessary public concern and misallocation of funds for remediation

GAR Global Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Maskrey, Andrew; Safaie, Sahar

2015-04-01

Disaster risk management strategies, policies and actions need to be based on evidence of current disaster loss and risk patterns, past trends and future projections, and underlying risk factors. Faced with competing demands for resources, at any level it is only possible to priorities a range of disaster risk management strategies and investments with adequate understanding of realised losses, current and future risk levels and impacts on economic growth and social wellbeing as well as cost and impact of the strategy. The mapping and understanding of the global risk landscape has been greatly enhanced by the latest iteration of the GAR Global Risk Assessment and the objective of this submission is to present the GAR global risk assessment which contributed to Global Assessment Report (GAR) 2015. This initiative which has been led by UNISDR, was conducted by a consortium of technical institutions from around the world and has covered earthquake, cyclone, riverine flood, and tsunami probabilistic risk for all countries of the world. In addition, the risks associated with volcanic ash in the Asia-Pacific region, drought in various countries in sub-Saharan Africa and climate change in a number of countries have been calculated. The presentation will share thee results as well as the experience including the challenges faced in technical elements as well as the process and recommendations for the future of such endeavour.

National Geospatial Data Asset Lifecycle Baseline Maturity Assessment for the Federal Geographic Data Committee

Science.gov (United States)

Peltz-Lewis, L. A.; Blake-Coleman, W.; Johnston, J.; DeLoatch, I. B.

2014-12-01

The Federal Geographic Data Committee (FGDC) is designing a portfolio management process for 193 geospatial datasets contained within the 16 topical National Spatial Data Infrastructure themes managed under OMB Circular A-16 "Coordination of Geographic Information and Related Spatial Data Activities." The 193 datasets are designated as National Geospatial Data Assets (NGDA) because of their significance in implementing to the missions of multiple levels of government, partners and stakeholders. As a starting point, the data managers of these NGDAs will conduct a baseline maturity assessment of the dataset(s) for which they are responsible. The maturity is measured against benchmarks related to each of the seven stages of the data lifecycle management framework promulgated within the OMB Circular A-16 Supplemental Guidance issued by OMB in November 2010. This framework was developed by the interagency Lifecycle Management Work Group (LMWG), consisting of 16 Federal agencies, under the 2004 Presidential Initiative the Geospatial Line of Business,using OMB Circular A-130" Management of Federal Information Resources" as guidance The seven lifecycle stages are: Define, Inventory/Evaluate, Obtain, Access, Maintain, Use/Evaluate, and Archive. This paper will focus on the Lifecycle Baseline Maturity Assessment, and efforts to integration the FGDC approach with other data maturity assessments.

Deterministic quantitative risk assessment development

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dawson, Jane; Colquhoun, Iain [PII Pipeline Solutions Business of GE Oil and Gas, Cramlington Northumberland (United Kingdom)

2009-07-01

Current risk assessment practice in pipeline integrity management is to use a semi-quantitative index-based or model based methodology. This approach has been found to be very flexible and provide useful results for identifying high risk areas and for prioritizing physical integrity assessments. However, as pipeline operators progressively adopt an operating strategy of continual risk reduction with a view to minimizing total expenditures within safety, environmental, and reliability constraints, the need for quantitative assessments of risk levels is becoming evident. Whereas reliability based quantitative risk assessments can be and are routinely carried out on a site-specific basis, they require significant amounts of quantitative data for the results to be meaningful. This need for detailed and reliable data tends to make these methods unwieldy for system-wide risk k assessment applications. This paper describes methods for estimating risk quantitatively through the calibration of semi-quantitative estimates to failure rates for peer pipeline systems. The methods involve the analysis of the failure rate distribution, and techniques for mapping the rate to the distribution of likelihoods available from currently available semi-quantitative programs. By applying point value probabilities to the failure rates, deterministic quantitative risk assessment (QRA) provides greater rigor and objectivity than can usually be achieved through the implementation of semi-quantitative risk assessment results. The method permits a fully quantitative approach or a mixture of QRA and semi-QRA to suit the operator's data availability and quality, and analysis needs. For example, consequence analysis can be quantitative or can address qualitative ranges for consequence categories. Likewise, failure likelihoods can be output as classical probabilities or as expected failure frequencies as required. (author)

Evaluation of thermal risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loos, J.J.; Perry, E.S.

1993-01-01

Risk assessment was done in 1983 to estimate the ecological hazard of increasing the generating load and thermal output of an electric generating station. Subsequently, long-term monitoring in the vicinity of the station allowed verification of the predictions made in the risk assessment. This presentation will review the efficacy of early risk assessment methods in producing useful predictions from a resource management point of view. In 1984, the Chalk Point Generating facility of the Potomac Electric Power Company increased it's median generating load by 100%. Prior to this operational change, the Academy of Natural Sciences of Philadelphia synthesized site specific data, model predictions, and results from literature to assess the risk of additional waste heat to the Patuxent River subestuary of Chesapeake Bay. Risk was expressed as the number of days per year that various species of fish and the blue crab would be expected to avoid the discharge vicinity. Accuracy of these predictions is assessed by comparing observed fish and crab distributions and their observed frequencies of avoidance to those predicted. It is concluded that the predictions of this early risk assessment were sufficiently accurate to produce a reliable resource management decision

Effects of the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) on biomedical outcomes, observed cardiovascular events and cardiovascular risks in primary care: a longitudinal comparative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Jiao, Fang Fang; Fung, Colman Siu Cheung; Wong, Carlos King Ho; Wan, Yuk Fai; Dai, Daisy; Kwok, Ruby; Lam, Cindy Lo Kuen

2014-08-21

To assess whether the Multidisciplinary Risk Assessment and Management Program for Patients with Diabetes Mellitus (RAMP-DM) led to improvements in biomedical outcomes, observed cardiovascular events and predicted cardiovascular risks after 12-month intervention in the primary care setting. A random sample of 1,248 people with diabetes enrolled to RAMP-DM for at least 12 months was selected and 1,248 people with diabetes under the usual primary care were matched by age, sex, and HbA1c level at baseline as the usual care group. Biomedical and cardiovascular outcomes were measured at baseline and at 12-month after the enrollment. Difference-in-differences approach was employed to measure the effect of RAMP-DM on the changes in biomedical outcomes, proportion of subjects reaching treatment targets, observed and predicted cardiovascular risks. Compared to the usual care group, RAMP-DM group had lower cardiovascular events incidence (1.21% vs 2.89%, P = 0.003), and net decrease in HbA1c (-0.20%, P risks (total CVD risk, -2.06%, P risk, -1.43%, P risk, -0.71%, P risks. The RAMP-DM resulted in greater improvements in HbA1c and reduction in observed and predicted cardiovascular risks at 12 months follow-up, which indicated a risk-stratification multidisciplinary intervention was an effective strategy for managing Chinese people with diabetes in the primary care setting. ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT02034695.

On risk assessment of energy production

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kunii, Katsuhiko

2005-07-01

Today we cannot ignore the risk of health and/or environment by energy production such as power generation since the risk has been made large enough. In this report an information survey has been done in order to know the outline and points of risk assessment. Based on the information of reports and literature about risk assessment, have been surveyed mainly the external cost assessment of power generation (in which quantification of health and/or environment risk has been done), in addition, risks of disasters, accidents, investments, finance etc. and impacts of those risks on social activities. The remarks obtained by the survey are as follows: 1) Some of external cost assessment of power generation show different results even if the assessment conditions of technology, site, etc. are mostly the same. It is necessary to remark on the information such as basic data, model, background, application limit of assessment considering the reliability. 2) Especially it is considered that the reliability of risk assessment is not enough at present because of the lack of basic data. (author)

Multilevel Analysis of Multiple-Baseline Data Evaluating Precision Teaching as an Intervention for Improving Fluency in Foundational Reading Skills for at Risk Readers

Science.gov (United States)

Brosnan, Julie; Moeyaert, Mariola; Brooks Newsome, Kendra; Healy, Olive; Heyvaert, Mieke; Onghena, Patrick; Van den Noortgate, Wim

2018-01-01

In this article, multiple-baseline across participants designs were used to evaluate the impact of a precision teaching (PT) program, within a Tier 2 Response to Intervention framework, targeting fluency in foundational reading skills with at risk kindergarten readers. Thirteen multiple-baseline design experiments that included participation from…

Defense Programs Transportation Risk Assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Clauss, D.B.

1994-01-01

This paper provides an overview of the methodology used in a probabilistic transportation risk assessment conducted to assess the probabilities and consequences of inadvertent dispersal of radioactive materials arising from severe transportation accidents. The model was developed for the Defense Program Transportation Risk Assessment (DPTRA) study. The analysis incorporates several enhancements relative to previous risk assessments of hazardous materials transportation including newly-developed statistics on the frequencies and severities of tractor semitrailer accidents and detailed route characterization using the 1990 Census data

Using Risk Assessment and Habitat Suitability Models to Prioritise Invasive Species for Management in a Changing Climate.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shauna-Lee Chai

Full Text Available Accounting for climate change in invasive species risk assessments improves our understanding of potential future impacts and enhances our preparedness for the arrival of new non-native species. We combined traditional risk assessment for invasive species with habitat suitability modeling to assess risk to biodiversity based on climate change. We demonstrate our method by assessing the risk for 15 potentially new invasive plant species to Alberta, Canada, an area where climate change is expected to facilitate the poleward expansion of invasive species ranges. Of the 15 species assessed, the three terrestrial invasive plant species that could pose the greatest threat to Alberta's biodiversity are giant knotweed (Fallopia sachalinensis, tamarisk (Tamarix chinensis, and alkali swainsonpea (Sphaerophysa salsula. We characterise giant knotweed as 'extremely invasive', with 21 times the suitable habitat between baseline and future projected climate. Tamarisk is 'extremely invasive' with a 64% increase in suitable habitat, and alkali swainsonpea is 'highly invasive' with a 21% increase in suitable habitat. Our methodology can be used to predict and prioritise potentially new invasive species for their impact on biodiversity in the context of climate change.

Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB)

Science.gov (United States)

The Risk Factor Assessment Branch (RFAB) focuses on the development, evaluation, and dissemination of high-quality risk factor metrics, methods, tools, technologies, and resources for use across the cancer research continuum, and the assessment of cancer-related risk factors in the population.

A Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER): Screening Experience and Baseline Characteristics.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Ford, Ian

2002-05-20

BACKGROUND: PROSPER was designed to investigate the benefits of treatment with pravastatin in elderly patients for whom a typical doctor might consider the prescription of statin therapy to be a realistic option. METHODS: The PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) is a randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled trial to test the hypothesis that treatment with pravastatin (40 mg\\/day) will reduce the risk of coronary heart disease death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or non-fatal stroke in elderly men and women with pre-existing vascular disease or with significant risk of developing this condition. RESULTS: In Scotland, Ireland, and the Netherlands, 23,770 individuals were screened, and 5,804 subjects (2,804 men and 3,000 women), aged 70 to 82 years (average 75 years) and with baseline cholesterol 4.0-9.0 mmol\\/l, were randomised. Randomised subjects had similar distributions with respect to age, blood pressure, and body mass index when compared to the entire group of screenees, but had a higher prevalence of smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and a history of vascular disease. The average total cholesterol level at baseline was 5.4 mmol\\/l (men) and 6.0 mmol\\/l (women). CONCLUSIONS: Compared with previous prevention trials of cholesterol-lowering drugs, the PROSPER cohort is significantly older and for the first time includes a majority of women. The study, having achieved its initial goal of recruiting more than 5,500 elderly high-risk men and women, aims to complete all final subject follow-up visits in the first half of 2002 with the main results being available in the fourth quarter of 2002.

A Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER): Screening Experience and Baseline Characteristics

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, Ian; Blauw, Gerard Jan; Murphy, Michael B; Shepherd, James; Cobbe, Stuart M; Bollen, Edward LEM; Buckley, Brendan M; Jukema, J Wouter; Hyland, Michael; Gaw, Allan; Lagaay, A Margot; Perry, Ivan J; Macfarlane, Peter; Norrie, John; Meinders, A Edo; Sweeney, Brian J; Packard, Chris J; Westendorp, Rudi GJ; Twomey, Cillian; Stott, David J

2002-01-01

Background PROSPER was designed to investigate the benefits of treatment with pravastatin in elderly patients for whom a typical doctor might consider the prescription of statin therapy to be a realistic option. Methods The PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) is a randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled trial to test the hypothesis that treatment with pravastatin (40 mg/day) will reduce the risk of coronary heart disease death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or non-fatal stroke in elderly men and women with pre-existing vascular disease or with significant risk of developing this condition. Results In Scotland, Ireland, and the Netherlands, 23,770 individuals were screened, and 5,804 subjects (2,804 men and 3,000 women), aged 70 to 82 years (average 75 years) and with baseline cholesterol 4.0–9.0 mmol/l, were randomised. Randomised subjects had similar distributions with respect to age, blood pressure, and body mass index when compared to the entire group of screenees, but had a higher prevalence of smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and a history of vascular disease. The average total cholesterol level at baseline was 5.4 mmol/l (men) and 6.0 mmol/l (women). Conclusions Compared with previous prevention trials of cholesterol-lowering drugs, the PROSPER cohort is significantly older and for the first time includes a majority of women. The study, having achieved its initial goal of recruiting more than 5,500 elderly high-risk men and women, aims to complete all final subject follow-up visits in the first half of 2002 with the main results being available in the fourth quarter of 2002. PMID:12097148

A Prospective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER: Screening Experience and Baseline Characteristics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lagaay A Margot

2002-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background PROSPER was designed to investigate the benefits of treatment with pravastatin in elderly patients for whom a typical doctor might consider the prescription of statin therapy to be a realistic option. Methods The PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER is a randomised, double blind, placebo-controlled trial to test the hypothesis that treatment with pravastatin (40 mg/day will reduce the risk of coronary heart disease death, non-fatal myocardial infarction, and fatal or non-fatal stroke in elderly men and women with pre-existing vascular disease or with significant risk of developing this condition. Results In Scotland, Ireland, and the Netherlands, 23,770 individuals were screened, and 5,804 subjects (2,804 men and 3,000 women, aged 70 to 82 years (average 75 years and with baseline cholesterol 4.0–9.0 mmol/l, were randomised. Randomised subjects had similar distributions with respect to age, blood pressure, and body mass index when compared to the entire group of screenees, but had a higher prevalence of smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and a history of vascular disease. The average total cholesterol level at baseline was 5.4 mmol/l (men and 6.0 mmol/l (women. Conclusions Compared with previous prevention trials of cholesterol-lowering drugs, the PROSPER cohort is significantly older and for the first time includes a majority of women. The study, having achieved its initial goal of recruiting more than 5,500 elderly high-risk men and women, aims to complete all final subject follow-up visits in the first half of 2002 with the main results being available in the fourth quarter of 2002.

Risk assessments ensure safer power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1982-02-19

A growth industry is emerging devoted to the study and comparison of the economic, social and health risks posed by large industrial installations. Electricity generation is one area coming under particularly close scrutiny. Types of risk, ways of assessing risk and the difference between experts' analyses and the public perception of risk are given. An example of improved risk assessment helping to reduce deaths and injuries in coal mining is included.

Assessment of Medical Risks and Optimization of their Management using Integrated Medical Model

Science.gov (United States)

Fitts, Mary A.; Madurai, Siram; Butler, Doug; Kerstman, Eric; Risin, Diana

2008-01-01

The Integrated Medical Model (IMM) Project is a software-based technique that will identify and quantify the medical needs and health risks of exploration crew members during space flight and evaluate the effectiveness of potential mitigation strategies. The IMM Project employs an evidence-based approach that will quantify probability and consequences of defined in-flight medical risks, mitigation strategies, and tactics to optimize crew member health. Using stochastic techniques, the IMM will ultimately inform decision makers at both programmatic and institutional levels and will enable objective assessment of crew health and optimization of mission success using data from relevant cohort populations and from the astronaut population. The objectives of the project include: 1) identification and documentation of conditions that may occur during exploration missions (Baseline Medical Conditions List [BMCL), 2) assessment of the likelihood of conditions in the BMCL occurring during exploration missions (incidence rate), 3) determination of the risk associated with these conditions and quantify in terms of end states (Loss of Crew, Loss of Mission, Evacuation), 4) optimization of in-flight hardware mass, volume, power, bandwidth and cost for a given level of risk or uncertainty, and .. validation of the methodologies used.

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W.; Phifer, M.A.

1992-01-01

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units

Development of exposure scenarios for CERCLA risk assessments at the Savannah River Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nix, D.W.; Immel, J.W. [Westinghouse Savannah River Co., Aiken, SC (United States); Phifer, M.A. [Tennessee Univ., Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Civil Engineering

1992-12-31

A CERCLA Baseline Risk Assessment (BRA) is performed to determine if there are any potential risks to human health and the environment from waste unit at SRS. The SRS has numerous waste units to evaluate in the RFMU and CMS/FS programs and, in order to provide a consistent approach, four standard exposure scenarios were developed for exposure assessments to be used in human health risk assessments. The standard exposure scenarios are divided into two temporal categories: (a) Current Land Use in the BRA, and (b) Future Land Use in the RERA. The Current Land Use scenarios consist of the evaluation of human health risk for Industrial Exposure (of a worker not involved in waste unit characterization or remediation), a Trespasser, a hypothetical current On-site Resident, and an Off-site Resident. The Future Land Use scenario considers exposure to an On-site Resident following termination of institutional control in the absence of any remedial action (No Action Alternative), as well as evaluating potential remedial alternatives against the four scenarios from the BRA. A critical facet in the development of a BRA or RERA is the scoping of exposure scenarios that reflect actual conditions at a waste unit, rather than using factors such as EPA Standard Default Exposure Scenarios (OSWER Directive 9285.6-03) that are based on upper-bound exposures that tend to reflect worst case conditions. The use of site-specific information for developing risk assessment exposure scenarios will result in a more realistic estimate of Reasonable Maximum Exposure for SRS waste units.

Risk assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Liselotte; Rasmussen, Kirsten; Elsass, Peter

2010-01-01

International research suggests that using formalized risk assessment methods may improve the predictive validity of professionals' predictions of risk of future violence. This study presents data on forensic psychiatric patients discharged from a forensic unit in Denmark in year 2001-2002 (n=107...... and the individual dynamic items strengthen the use of this scheme in clinical practice. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2010 APA, all rights reserved) (journal abstract)...

Assessment of simple risk markers for early mortality among HIV-infected patients in Guinea-Bissau

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oliveira, Inés; Andersen, Andreas; Furtado, Alcino

2012-01-01

risk factors for early mortality among HIV-infected patients; (2) to assess whether these markers could help identify patients to whom ART should be prioritised and (3) to determine if these markers may add information to CD4 cell count when VL is not available. Design: An observational study. Setting......PAR quartile. Conclusions: Irrespective of ART initiation and baseline CD4 count, MUAC and suPAR plasma levels were independent predictors of early mortality in this urban cohort. These markers could be useful in identifying patients at the highest risk of short-term mortality and may aid triage for ART when...

Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

... HRS Find a Specialist Share Twitter Facebook SCA Risk Assessment Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) occurs abruptly and without ... people of all ages and health conditions. Start Risk Assessment The Sudden Cardiac Arrest (SCA) Risk Assessment Tool ...

Integrated climate change risk assessment:

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaspersen, Per Skougaard; Halsnæs, Kirsten

2017-01-01

Risk assessments of flooding in urban areas during extreme precipitation for use in, for example, decision-making regarding climate adaptation, are surrounded by great uncertainties stemming from climate model projections, methods of downscaling and the assumptions of socioeconomic impact models...... to address the complex linkages between the different kinds of data required in assessing climate adaptation. It emphasizes that the availability of spatially explicit data can reduce the overall uncertainty of the risk assessment and assist in identifying key vulnerable assets. The usefulness...... of such a framework is demonstrated by means of a risk assessment of flooding from extreme precipitation for the city of Odense, Denmark. A sensitivity analysis shows how the presence of particularly important assets, such as cultural and historical heritage, may be addressed in assessing such risks. The output...

Postremediation monitoring program baseline assessment report, Lower East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Greeley, M.S. Jr.; Ashwood, T.L.; Kszos, L.A.; Peterson, M.J.; Rash, C.D.; Southworth, G.R.; Phipps, T.L.

1998-04-01

Lower East Fork Poplar Creek (LEFPC) and its floodplain are contaminated with mercury (Hg) from ongoing and historical releases from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant. A remedial investigation and feasibility study of LEFPC resulted in the signing of a Record of Decision (ROD) in August 1995. In response to the ROD, soil contaminated with mercury above 400 mg/kg was removed from two sites in LEFPC and the floodplain during a recently completed remedial action (RA). The Postremediation Monitoring Program (PMP) outlined in the LEFPC Monitoring Plan was envisioned to occur in two phases: (1) a baseline assessment prior to remediation and (2) postremediation monitoring. The current report summarizes the results of the baseline assessment of soil, water, biota, and groundwater usage in LEFPC and its floodplain conducted in 1995 and 1996 by personnel of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program (BMAP). This report also includes some 1997 data from contaminated sites that did not undergo remediation during the RA (i.e., sites where mercury is greater than 200 mg/kg but less than 400 mg/kg). The baseline assessment described in this document is distinct and separate from both the remedial investigation/feasibility study the confirmatory sampling conducted by SAIC during the RA. The purpose of the current assessment was to provide preremediation baseline data for the LEFPC PMP outlined in the LEFPC Monitoring Plan, using common approaches and techniques, as specified in that plan

Postremediation monitoring program baseline assessment report, Lower East Fork Poplar Creek, Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant, Oak Ridge, Tennessee

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greeley, M.S. Jr.; Ashwood, T.L.; Kszos, L.A.; Peterson, M.J.; Rash, C.D.; Southworth, G.R. [Oak Ridge National Lab., TN (United States); Phipps, T.L. [CKY, Inc. (United States)

1998-04-01

Lower East Fork Poplar Creek (LEFPC) and its floodplain are contaminated with mercury (Hg) from ongoing and historical releases from the US Department of Energy (DOE) Oak Ridge Y-12 Plant. A remedial investigation and feasibility study of LEFPC resulted in the signing of a Record of Decision (ROD) in August 1995. In response to the ROD, soil contaminated with mercury above 400 mg/kg was removed from two sites in LEFPC and the floodplain during a recently completed remedial action (RA). The Postremediation Monitoring Program (PMP) outlined in the LEFPC Monitoring Plan was envisioned to occur in two phases: (1) a baseline assessment prior to remediation and (2) postremediation monitoring. The current report summarizes the results of the baseline assessment of soil, water, biota, and groundwater usage in LEFPC and its floodplain conducted in 1995 and 1996 by personnel of the Oak Ridge National Laboratory Biological Monitoring and Abatement Program (BMAP). This report also includes some 1997 data from contaminated sites that did not undergo remediation during the RA (i.e., sites where mercury is greater than 200 mg/kg but less than 400 mg/kg). The baseline assessment described in this document is distinct and separate from both the remedial investigation/feasibility study the confirmatory sampling conducted by SAIC during the RA. The purpose of the current assessment was to provide preremediation baseline data for the LEFPC PMP outlined in the LEFPC Monitoring Plan, using common approaches and techniques, as specified in that plan.

Functional neural correlates of reduced physiological falls risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hsu Chun

2011-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is currently unclear whether the function of brain regions associated with executive cognitive processing are independently associated with reduced physiological falls risk. If these are related, it would suggest that the development of interventions targeted at improving executive neurocognitive function would be an effective new approach for reducing physiological falls risk in seniors. Methods We performed a secondary analysis of 73 community-dwelling senior women aged 65 to 75 years old who participated in a 12-month randomized controlled trial of resistance training. Functional MRI data were acquired while participants performed a modified Eriksen Flanker Task - a task of selective attention and conflict resolution. Brain volumes were obtained using MRI. Falls risk was assessed using the Physiological Profile Assessment (PPA. Results After accounting for baseline age, experimental group, baseline PPA score, and total baseline white matter brain volume, baseline activation in the left frontal orbital cortex extending towards the insula was negatively associated with reduced physiological falls risk over the 12-month period. In contrast, baseline activation in the paracingulate gyrus extending towards the anterior cingulate gyrus was positively associated with reduced physiological falls risk. Conclusions Baseline activation levels of brain regions underlying response inhibition and selective attention were independently associated with reduced physiological falls risk. This suggests that falls prevention strategies may be facilitated by incorporating intervention components - such as aerobic exercise - that are specifically designed to induce neurocognitive plasticity. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT00426881

Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk

Science.gov (United States)

... Health Professional Resources Assessing Your Weight and Health Risk Assessment of weight and health risk involves using ... risk for developing obesity-associated diseases or conditions. Risk Factors for Health Topics Associated With Obesity Along ...

PARS risk charts: A 10-year study of risk assessment for cardiovascular diseases in Eastern Mediterranean Region.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nizal Sarrafzadegan

Full Text Available This study was designed to develop a risk assessment chart for the clinical management and prevention of the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD in Iranian population, which is vital for developing national prevention programs. The Isfahan Cohort Study (ICS is a population-based prospective study of 6504 Iranian adults ≥35 years old, followed-up for ten years, from 2001 to 2010. Behavioral and cardiometabolic risk factors were examined every five years, while biennial follow-ups for the occurrence of the events was performed by phone calls or by verbal autopsy. Among these participants, 5432 (2784 women, 51.3% were CVD free at baseline examination and had at least one follow-up. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to predict the risk of ischemic CVD events, including sudden cardiac death due to unstable angina, myocardial infarction, and stroke. The model fit statistics such as area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC, calibration chi-square and the overall bias were used to assess the model performance. We also tested the Framingham model for comparison. Seven hundred and five CVD events occurred during 49452.8 person-years of follow-up. The event probabilities were calculated and presented color-coded on each gender-specific PARS chart. The AUROC and Harrell's C indices were 0.74 (95% CI, 0.72-0.76 and 0.73, respectively. In the calibration, the Nam-D'Agostino χ2 was 10.82 (p = 0.29. The overall bias of the proposed model was 95.60%. PARS model was also internally validated using cross-validation. The Android app and the Web-based risk assessment tool were also developed as to have an impact on public health. In comparison, the refitted and recalibrated Framingham models, estimated the CVD incidence with the overall bias of 149.60% and 128.23% for men, and 222.70% and 176.07% for women, respectively. In conclusion, the PARS risk assessment chart is a simple, accurate, and well-calibrated tool for predicting a 10-year

Environmental Assessment/Baseline Survey to Establish New Drop Zone (DZ) in Cadiz, Ohio

Science.gov (United States)

2009-03-01

International Airport LATN Low Altitude Tactical Navigation MACA Military Airspace Collision Avoidance µg/m3 microgram per cubic meter MSL mean...Environmental Assessment and Baseline Survey 3-3 To Establish New Drop Zone in Cadiz, OH The 911 AW has a Military Airspace Collision Avoidance ( MACA ) plan...in Cadiz, OH The 911 AW flight safety would revise their existing MACA plan to include activities at the new drop zone. The MACA includes placing a

Increased Risk of Progression of Coronary Artery Calcification in Male Subjects with High Baseline Waist-to-Height Ratio: The Kangbuk Samsung Health Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Hyung Geun; Nallamshetty, Shriram; Rhee, Eun Jung

2016-02-01

The waist-to-height ratio (WHtR) is an easy and inexpensive adiposity index that reflects central obesity. In this study, we examined the association of baseline WHtR and progression of coronary artery calcification (CAC) over 4 years of follow-up in apparently healthy Korean men. A total of 1,048 male participants (mean age, 40.9 years) in a health-screening program in Kangbuk Samsung Hospital, Seoul, Korea who repeated a medical check-up in 2010 and 2014 were recruited. Baseline WHtR was calculated using the value for the waist in 2010 divided by the value for height in 2010. The CAC score (CACS) of each subject was measured by multi-detector computed tomography in both 2010 and 2014. Progression of CAC was defined as a CACS change over 4 years greater than 0. During the follow-up period, progression of CAC occurred in 278 subjects (26.5%). The subjects with CAC progression had slightly higher but significant baseline WHtR compared to those who did not show CAC progression (0.51±0.04 vs. 0.50±0.04, P<0.01). The proportion of subjects with CAC progression significantly increased as the baseline WHtR increased from the 1st quartile to 4th quartile groups (18.3%, 18.7%, 28.8%, and 34.2%; P<0.01). The risk for CAC progression was elevated with an odds ratio of 1.602 in the 4th quartile group of baseline WHtR even after adjustment for confounding variables (95% confidence interval, 1.040 to 2.466). Increased baseline WHtR was associated with increased risk for CAC progression. WHtR might be a useful screening tool to identify individuals at high risk for subclinical atherosclerosis.

Risk assessment theory, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Rausand, Marvin

2011-01-01

With its balanced coverage of theory and applications along with standards and regulations, Risk Assessment: Theory, Methods, and Applications serves as a comprehensive introduction to the topic. The book serves as a practical guide to current risk analysis and risk assessment, emphasizing the possibility of sudden, major accidents across various areas of practice from machinery and manufacturing processes to nuclear power plants and transportation systems. The author applies a uniform framework to the discussion of each method, setting forth clear objectives and descriptions, while also shedding light on applications, essential resources, and advantages and disadvantages. Following an introduction that provides an overview of risk assessment, the book is organized into two sections that outline key theory, methods, and applications. * Introduction to Risk Assessment defines key concepts and details the steps of a thorough risk assessment along with the necessary quantitative risk measures. Chapters outline...

Caries risk assessment in young adults using Public Dental Service guidelines and the Cariogram--a comparative study.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersson, Gunnel Hänsel; Ericson, Ewa; Isberg, Per-Erik; Twetman, Svante

2013-01-01

To investigate the caries risk profiles in young adults and to compare the risk classification using the Public Dental Service (PDS) guidelines with a risk assessment program, the Cariogram. All 19-year-old patients registered at eight public dental clinics were invited to participate (n = 1699). The study group who completed the baseline examination consisted of 1295 subjects representing 10% of all 19 year-olds attending dental care at the PDS in Skåne, Sweden. A risk classification of each patient was made by the patient's regular team according to the PDS guidelines. A research team collected whole saliva samples and information from a questionnaire and a structured interview in order to calculate risk according to the Cariogram model. The mean DFS value was 4.9 and 23% of the patients were registered as caries-free (DFS = 0). The PDS risk classification was predominantly based on past caries and/or present caries activity. The majority was classified as 'some risk', while 16.7% were assessed as being of 'high' or 'very high risk'. The corresponding value for the two highest risk groups in the Cariogram model was 17.4%. The agreement between the two models was found acceptable (77.5%) for those assessed as low risk, while discrepancies were disclosed among those classified with higher risks. Although the proportion of subjects assessed with high or very high risk was similar using the PDS guidelines and the Cariogram model, the agreement between the models was fair. An acceptable agreement was only disclosed for the low risk category.

The issue of risk dilution in risk assessments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilmot, R.; Robinson, P.

2004-01-01

This paper explores an issue that was first highlighted more than 20 years ago during an inquiry concerning the Sizeweli B nuclear power station in the UK. In the probabilistic safety assessment for this plant, the proponent had apparently reduced its estimates of risk by admitting to increased uncertainty about the timing of certain events. This situation is counter-intuitive, since an increase in uncertainty about the factors contributing to safety would be expected to lead to less confidence and hence to greater risk. This paradoxical situation was termed 'risk dilution' and it has been a topic of interest to reviewers of safety cases since. The recent international peer review of the Yucca Mountain performance assessments concluded that there was a potential for risk dilution in the assumptions and calculations presented. The next section describes how assumptions about the timing of events and other aspects of an assessment may lead to risk dilution, and this is followed by two examples based on recent performance assessments. The final section discusses how potential problems can be identified in safety cases, and the types of response that a regulator might adopt as a result. (authors)

Adapting ecological risk valuation for natural resource damage assessment in water pollution.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Shuzhen; Wu, Desheng

2018-07-01

Ecological risk assessment can address requirements of natural resource damage assessment by quantifying the magnitude of possible damages to the ecosystem. This paper investigates an approach to assess water damages from pollution incident on the basis of concentrations of contaminants. The baseline of water pollution is determined with not-to-exceed concentration of contaminants required by water quality standards. The values of damage cost to water quality are estimated through sewage treatment cost. To get a reliable estimate of treatment cost, DEA is employed to classify samples of sewage plants based on their efficiency of sewage treatment. And exponential fitting is adopted to determine the relation between treatment cost and the decrease of COCs. The range of damage costs is determined through the fitting curves respectively based on efficient and inefficient samples. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Risk Assessment in the Maritime Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. Mousavi

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief introduction to some of the analysis methods available and suggests risk analysis approaches to support different types of decision making within the maritime transportation to cope with crises. Finally, as awareness of risk assessment increases, the benefits which can be realized through its application will continue to increase. Organizations in both the public and the private sector are becoming more and more familiar with the benefits associated with risk-based approaches to managing safety and consequently reducing crisis in maritime transportation.

Cardiovascular risk assessment between urban and rural population in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Noor Hassim, I; Norazman, M R; Diana, M; Khairul Hazdi, Y; Rosnah, I

2016-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) caused significant burden to Malaysia as it accounted for 36% of total deaths. This study aims to evaluate the burden of cardiovascular risk factors among Malaysian adult and assess the difference between urban and rural population in the selected communities. This study is part of the ongoing Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) database, whereby the baseline data were collected since June 2008. CVD risk was measured using INTERHEART risk score which comprised of eleven risk factors i.e. age and gender, family history of heart attack, smoking status, exposure to second hand smoke, diabetes mellitus, hypertension status, waist-hip ratio, self-reported stress, depression, dietary habits and physical activity status. Majority of the studied participants had low cardiovascular risk (57%). Participants from rural area were generally older, had lower educational status, higher prevalence of smokers, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and more likely to be depressed. In comparison, urbanites had lower physical activities and more likely to be stressful. Mean INTERHEART score among rural participants were higher, especially for male, in comparison to urbanite (11.5±5.83 vs. 10.01±5.74, p<0.001). Contradict to common beliefs, participants in rural areas generally have higher cardiovascular risk factors compared to their urban counterparts. The rural population should be targeted for focused preventive interventions, taking account the socioeconomic and cultural context.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials.

Science.gov (United States)

Bos, Peter M J; Gottardo, Stefania; Scott-Fordsmand, Janeck J; van Tongeren, Martie; Semenzin, Elena; Fernandes, Teresa F; Hristozov, Danail; Hund-Rinke, Kerstin; Hunt, Neil; Irfan, Muhammad-Adeel; Landsiedel, Robert; Peijnenburg, Willie J G M; Sánchez Jiménez, Araceli; van Kesteren, Petra C E; Oomen, Agnes G

2015-11-27

An engineered nanomaterial (ENM) may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA) a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing) a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs) are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment) is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

The MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy: A Flexible Strategy for Efficient Information Collection and Risk Assessment of Nanomaterials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peter M. J. Bos

2015-11-01

Full Text Available An engineered nanomaterial (ENM may actually consist of a population of primary particles, aggregates and agglomerates of various sizes. Furthermore, their physico-chemical characteristics may change during the various life-cycle stages. It will probably not be feasible to test all varieties of all ENMs for possible health and environmental risks. There is therefore a need to further develop the approaches for risk assessment of ENMs. Within the EU FP7 project Managing Risks of Nanoparticles (MARINA a two-phase risk assessment strategy has been developed. In Phase 1 (Problem framing a base set of information is considered, relevant exposure scenarios (RESs are identified and the scope for Phase 2 (Risk assessment is established. The relevance of an RES is indicated by information on exposure, fate/kinetics and/or hazard; these three domains are included as separate pillars that contain specific tools. Phase 2 consists of an iterative process of risk characterization, identification of data needs and integrated collection and evaluation of data on the three domains, until sufficient information is obtained to conclude on possible risks in a RES. Only data are generated that are considered to be needed for the purpose of risk assessment. A fourth pillar, risk characterization, is defined and it contains risk assessment tools. This strategy describes a flexible and efficient approach for data collection and risk assessment which is essential to ensure safety of ENMs. Further developments are needed to provide guidance and make the MARINA Risk Assessment Strategy operational. Case studies will be needed to refine the strategy.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Sites near Slick Rock, Colorado. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-09-01

Two UMTRA (Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action) Project sites are near Slick Rock, Colorado: the North Continent site and the Union Carbide site. Currently, no one uses the contaminated ground water at either site for domestic or agricultural purposes. However, there may be future land development. This risk assessment evaluates possible future health problems associated with exposure to contaminated ground water. Since some health problems could occur, it is recommended that the contaminated ground water not be used as drinking water

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the Uranium Mill Tailings Sites near Slick Rock, Colorado. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-09-01

Two UMTRA (Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action) Project sites are near Slick Rock, Colorado: the North Continent site and the Union Carbide site. Currently, no one uses the contaminated ground water at either site for domestic or agricultural purposes. However, there may be future land development. This risk assessment evaluates possible future health problems associated with exposure to contaminated ground water. Since some health problems could occur, it is recommended that the contaminated ground water not be used as drinking water.

Business risks, functions, methods of assessment and ways to reduce risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A.V. Mihalchuk

2015-06-01

Full Text Available For successful existence in a market economy entrepreneur have to take bold actions, and this increases the risk. The article describes the concept of entrepreneurship and business risk, positive and negative aspects of functions of risk in business. Therefore, it is necessary to assess the risk properly and be able to manage it to achieve the most effective results in the market. In market conditions the problem of assessing and accounting market becomes independent theoretical and practical significance as an important component of the theory and practice of management. Risk - a key element of business activities. Development of risk situations can lead to both the occurrence of adverse effects (losses, lost profits, and positive results for a company in the form of increased profit. This article describes: the concept of entrepreneurship, risk and business risks, characteristic of positive and negative aspects of risk functions in business, methods of assessment and risk reduction, shows formulae and examples you can use to assess risk in an enterprise. Analyzing already established methods of risk assessment a number of rules were proposed in order to reduce business risk.

Risk Assessment

OpenAIRE

Hrdová, Edita

2012-01-01

This diploma thesis is focused on companies risk evaluation before endorsement of Loan deriving from business relationships. The aim of this thesis is not only to describe individual steps of risk assessment, but also perfom analysis of particular companies based on available data, i.e. Balance sheet, Profit and Loss statement and external rating and after that propose solution for each company. My analysis will be based on theoretical knowledge, further on experience related to my job role a...

HTGR accident and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Silady, F.A.; Everline, C.J.; Houghton, W.J.

1982-01-01

This paper is a synopsis of the high-temperature gas-cooled reactor probabilistic risk assessments (PRAs) performed by General Atomic Company. Principal topics presented include: HTGR safety assessments, peer interfaces, safety research, process gas explosions, quantitative safety goals, licensing applications of PRA, enhanced safety, investment risk assessments, and PRA design integration

Anthropic Risk Assessment on Biodiversity

Science.gov (United States)

Piragnolo, M.; Pirotti, F.; Vettore, A.; Salogni, G.

2013-01-01

This paper presents a methodology for risk assessment of anthropic activities on habitats and species. The method has been developed for Veneto Region, in order to simplify and improve the quality of EIA procedure (VINCA). Habitats and species, animals and plants, are protected by European Directive 92/43/EEC and 2009/147/EC but they are subject at hazard due to pollution produced by human activities. Biodiversity risks may conduct to deterioration and disturbance in ecological niches, with consequence of loss of biodiversity. Ecological risk assessment applied on Natura 2000 network, is needed to best practice of management and monitoring of environment and natural resources. Threats, pressure and activities, stress and indicators may be managed by geodatabase and analysed using GIS technology. The method used is the classic risk assessment in ecological context, and it defines the natural hazard as influence, element of risk as interference and vulnerability. Also it defines a new parameter called pressure. It uses risk matrix for the risk analysis on spatial and temporal scale. The methodology is qualitative and applies the precautionary principle in environmental assessment. The final product is a matrix which excludes the risk and could find application in the development of a territorial information system.

Risk assessment and the environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisk, D.J.

1992-01-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change

Risk assessment and the environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fisk, D J [Department of the Environment (United Kingdom)

1992-07-01

This paper reviews the use of risk assessment techniques in the field of environment protection. I will argue that in some important instances the development of environment policy has been a source of fruitful development of a risk based methodologies. In other cases the importation of risk assessment techniques has proved much more problematic. As the scope of environmental regulation increases so does the possibility of inconsistent and arbitrary solutions to problems. The need for a more systematic approach to the development of environmental regulation has never been stronger, so it is important to understand the reasons for the mixed success of risk assessment. This applies equally to those nations with long traditions of the regulation of private sector industry and those just beginning on this course. The way ahead may be to extend our ideas of how to express risk and uncertainty. Some of the recent cause celebres of environment policy show this challenge very clearly. As an example, this paper will look at the problem of assessing the risk of man-made climate change.

Nuclear insurance risk assessment using risk-based methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wendland, W.G.

1992-01-01

This paper presents American Nuclear Insurers' (ANI's) and Mutual Atomic Energy Liability Underwriters' (MAELU's) process and experience for conducting nuclear insurance risk assessments using a risk-based methodology. The process is primarily qualitative and uses traditional insurance risk assessment methods and an approach developed under the auspices of the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) in which ANI/MAELU is an active sponsor. This process assists ANI's technical resources in identifying where to look for insurance risk in an industry in which insurance exposure tends to be dynamic and nonactuarial. The process is an evolving one that also seeks to minimize the impact on insureds while maintaining a mutually agreeable risk tolerance

Outcomes of three universal eating disorder risk reduction programs by participants with higher and lower baseline shape and weight concern.

Science.gov (United States)

Wilksch, Simon M; Paxton, Susan J; Byrne, Susan M; Austin, S Bryn; O'Shea, Anne; Wade, Tracey D

2017-01-01

To investigate if baseline shape and weight concern (SWC) moderated outcomes in Prevention Across the Spectrum, a randomized-controlled trial (RCT) of 3 school-based programs aimed at reducing eating disorder and obesity risk factors. N = 1,316 Grade 7 and 8 girls and boys (M age = 13.21 years) across three Australian states were randomly allocated to: Media Smart; Life Smart; Helping, Encouraging, Listening and Protecting Peers Initiative (HELPP) or control (usual school class). Moderation was explored by testing interaction effects for group (Media Smart; Life Smart; HELPP; Control) × moderator (SWC: higher-SWC; lower-SWC) × time (post-program; 6-month follow-up; 12-month follow-up), with baseline risk factor scores entered as covariates. Moderation effects were found for shape concern, weight concern, eating concern, regular eating (i.e., meal skipping), physical activity, body dissatisfaction, dieting, and perfectionism. Post-hoc testing found eating concern at post-program was the only variable where higher-SWC Media Smart participants experienced a reduction in risk relative to controls. Both higher-SWC Life Smart and HELPP participants reported an increase in eating concern relative to controls and both groups were skipping more meals than controls at 12-month follow-up. Amongst lower-SWC participants, Media Smart was the only group to experience a benefit relative to controls (physical activity). This study highlights the need for moderator analyses to become more routinely conducted in universal trials, to ensure that participants across baseline risk levels are benefiting and not harmed from program participation. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. (Int J Eat Disord 2017; 50:66-75). © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessment of mercury health risks to adults from coal combustion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lipfert, F.W.; Moskowitz, P.D.; Fthenakis, V.M.; DePhillips, M.P.; Viren, J.; Saroff, L.

1994-05-01

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is preparing, for the U.S. Congress, a report evaluating the need to regulate mercury (Hg) emissions from electric utilities. This study, to be completed in 1995, will have important health and economic implications. In support of these efforts, the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Fossil Energy, sponsored a risk assessment project at Brookhaven National Laboratory (BNL) to evaluate methylmercury (MeHg) hazards independently. In the BNL study, health risks to adults resulting from Hg emissions from a hypothetical 1000 MW{sub e} coal-fired power plant were estimated using probabilistic risk assessment techniques. The approach draws on the extant knowledge in each of the important steps in the calculation chain from emissions to health effects. Estimated results at key points in the chain were compared with actual measurements to help validate the modeled estimates. Two cases were considered: the baseline case (no local impacts), and the impact case (maximum local power-plant impact). The BNL study showed that the effects of emissions of a single power plant may double the background exposures to MeHg resulting from consuming fish obtained from a localized area near the power plant. Many implicit and explicit sources of uncertainty exist in this analysis. Those that appear to be most in need of improvement include data on doses and responses for potentially sensitive subpopulations (e.g., fetal exposures). Rather than considering hypothetical situations, it would also be preferable to assess the risks associated with actual coal-fired power plants and the nearby sensitive water bodies and susceptible subpopulations. Finally, annual total Hg emissions from coal burning and from other anthropogenic sources are still uncertain; this makes it difficult to estimate the effects of U.S. coal burning on global Hg concentration levels, especially over the long term.

Risk assessment for halogenated solvents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Travis, C.C.

1988-01-01

A recent development in the cancer risk area is the advent of biologically based pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic models. These models allow for the incorporation of biological and mechanistic data into the risk assessment process. These advances will not only improve the risk assessment process for halogenated solvents but will stimulate and guide basic research in the biological area

RESIDUAL RISK ASSESSMENT: ETHYLENE OXIDE ...

Science.gov (United States)

This document describes the residual risk assessment for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. For stationary sources, section 112 (f) of the Clean Air Act requires EPA to assess risks to human health and the environment following implementation of technology-based control standards. If these technology-based control standards do not provide an ample margin of safety, then EPA is required to promulgate addtional standards. This document describes the methodology and results of the residual risk assessment performed for the Ethylene Oxide Commercial Sterilization source category. The results of this analyiss will assist EPA in determining whether a residual risk rule for this source category is appropriate.

Utility of Exercise Testing and Adenosine Response for Risk Assessment in Children with Wolff-Parkinson-White Syndrome.

Science.gov (United States)

Ergul, Yakup; Ozturk, Erkut; Ozyilmaz, Isa; Unsal, Serkan; Carus, Hayat; Tola, Hasan Tahsin; Tanidir, Ibrahim Cansaran; Guzeltas, Alper

2015-01-01

We aimed to determine the correlation between noninvasive testing (exercise stress testing [EST] and adenosine responsiveness of accessory pathway [AP] ) and invasive electrophysiology study (EPS) for assessment antegrade conduction of the AP in Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. This prospective, observational study enrolled 40 children (58% male children, median age of 13 years, and median weight of 47.5 kg) with Wolff-Parkinson-White syndrome. Conduction through the AP to a cycle length of ≤250 ms was considered rapid or high-risk; otherwise, patients were nonrapid or low-risk. The sudden disappearance of the delta-wave was seen in 10 cases (25%) during EST. Accessory pathway was found to be high-risk in 13 cases (13/40, 32.5%) while the accessory path was identified as low-risk in 27 cases; however, six patients (15%) had blocked AP conduction with adenosine during EPS. Low-risk classification by EST alone to identify patients with nonrapid conduction in baseline EPS had a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 90% (accuracy 54%). Blocked AP conduction with adenosine as a marker of nonrapid baseline AP conduction had a specificity of 93% and a positive predictive value of 84%. Finally, AP was adenosine nonresponsive in the majority of patients (28/30, 93%) with persistent delta-waves, 40% of those who had a sudden disappearance of delta-waves had an adenosine-responsive AP (P value: .028). Abrupt loss of preexcitation during EST and blocked AP conduction with adenosine had high specificity and positive predictive value for nonrapid and low-risk antegrade conduction during baseline invasive EPS. Successful risk stratification of pediatric patients with Wolff-Parkinson-White is possible through the use of EST and the adenosine responsiveness of AP. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Williams, K.C.

1992-01-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime

Risk assessment: An employer's perspective

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Williams, K C [Exxon International (United States)

1992-07-01

There is no question that a careful assessment of risk is essential for safe industrial operations. For that reason, a thoughtful analysis of the effectiveness of available risk assessment technologies is prerequisite for responsible corporate decision making. An 'employer's' perspective on risk assessment cannot be constrained by any artificial restrictions which that term may imply. In reality, all those who are involved in the execution of an industrial enterprise: managers, regulators, the affected public, and especially those employees exposed to hazards, are necessarily partners in assessment of risk. The perspective of this paper is that of the oil and gas industry, in which the author's organization, Exxon Company, International, participates. The paper addresses what Exxon requires to assess and manage risk in its worldwide operations. The author is aware, however, through contacts with industry colleagues, that some of Exxon's initiatives are representative of similar actions being taken by others. 1992 is the European Year of Safety, Health and Hygiene, coinciding with the United Kingdom's Presidency of the European Council. It is also the year in which new 'goal-setting' regulations covering safety in the U.K. offshore oil industry were put forward by the Health and Safety Commission. These regulations, based largely on Lord Cullen's recommendations following the Piper Alpha tragedy, set the pace for safety in the British North Sea and will significantly impact the safety of offshore oil installations worldwide. The requirement for risk assessment, using a systematic process of analysing and evaluating risk, is a key component of this safety regime.

Analysis of baseline gene expression levels from ...

Science.gov (United States)

The use of gene expression profiling to predict chemical mode of action would be enhanced by better characterization of variance due to individual, environmental, and technical factors. Meta-analysis of microarray data from untreated or vehicle-treated animals within the control arm of toxicogenomics studies has yielded useful information on baseline fluctuations in gene expression. A dataset of control animal microarray expression data was assembled by a working group of the Health and Environmental Sciences Institute's Technical Committee on the Application of Genomics in Mechanism Based Risk Assessment in order to provide a public resource for assessments of variability in baseline gene expression. Data from over 500 Affymetrix microarrays from control rat liver and kidney were collected from 16 different institutions. Thirty-five biological and technical factors were obtained for each animal, describing a wide range of study characteristics, and a subset were evaluated in detail for their contribution to total variability using multivariate statistical and graphical techniques. The study factors that emerged as key sources of variability included gender, organ section, strain, and fasting state. These and other study factors were identified as key descriptors that should be included in the minimal information about a toxicogenomics study needed for interpretation of results by an independent source. Genes that are the most and least variable, gender-selectiv

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

OpenAIRE

Oksana G. Feoktistova; Igor K. Turkin; Sergey V. Barinov

2017-01-01

The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate pre...

An abuse of risk assessment: how regulatory agencies improperly adopted LNT for cancer risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Calabrese, Edward J

2015-04-01

The Genetics Panel of the National Academy of Sciences' Committee on Biological Effects of Atomic Radiation (BEAR) recommended the adoption of the linear dose-response model in 1956, abandoning the threshold dose-response for genetic risk assessments. This recommendation was quickly generalized to include somatic cells for cancer risk assessment and later was instrumental in the adoption of linearity for carcinogen risk assessment by the Environmental Protection Agency. The Genetics Panel failed to provide any scientific assessment to support this recommendation and refused to do so when later challenged by other leading scientists. Thus, the linearity model used in cancer risk assessment was based on ideology rather than science and originated with the recommendation of the NAS BEAR Committee Genetics Panel. Historical documentation in support of these conclusions is provided in the transcripts of the Panel meetings and in previously unexamined correspondence among Panel members.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify

Risk indices in comparative risk assessment studies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hubert, P.

1984-01-01

More than a decade ago the development of comparative risk assessment studies aroused overwhelming interest. There was no doubt that data on the health and safety aspects of energy systems would greatly benefit, or even end, the debate on nuclear energy. Although such attempts are still strongly supported, the rose-coloured expectations of the early days have faded. The high uncertainties, and the contradictory aspect, of the first results might explain this evolution. The loose connection between the range of computed risk indices and the questions on which the debate was focused is another reason for this decline in interest. Important research work is being carried out aiming at reducing the different kinds of uncertainties. Rather than the uncertainties, the paper considers the meaning of available risk indices and proposes more significant indices with respect to the goals of risk assessment. First, the indices which are of frequent use in comparative studies are listed. The stress is put on a French comparative study from which most examples are drawn. Secondly, the increase in magnitude of the indices and the decrease in the attributability of the risk to a given system is shown to be a consequence of the trend towards more comprehensive analyses. Thirdly, the ambiguity of such indices as the collective occupational risk is underlined, and a possible solution is suggested. Whenever risk assessments are related to pragmatic decision making problems it is possible to find satisfactory risk indices. The development of cost-effectiveness analyses and the proposals for quantitative safety goals clearly demonstrate this point. In the field of comparison of social impacts some proposals are made, but there remain some gaps still to be filled. (author)

Aspects regarding explosion risk assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Părăian Mihaela

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Explosive risk occurs in all activities involving flammable substances in the form of gases, vapors, mists or dusts which, in mixture with air, can generate an explosive atmosphere. As explosions can cause human losses and huge material damage, the assessment of the explosion risk and the establishment of appropriate measures to reduce it to acceptable levels according to the standards and standards in force is of particular importance for the safety and health of people and goods.There is no yet a recognized method of assessing the explosion risk, but regardless of the applied method, the likelihood of an explosive atmosphere occurrence has to be determined, together with the occurrence of an efficient ignition source and the magnitude of foreseeable consequences. In assessment processes, consequences analysis has a secondary importance since it’s likely that explosions would always involve considerable damage, starting from important material damages and up to human damages that could lead to death.The purpose of the work is to highlight the important principles and elements to be taken into account for a specific risk assessment. An essential element in assessing the risk of explosion in workplaces where explosive atmospheres may occur is technical installations and personal protective equipment (PPE that must be designed, manufactured, installed and maintained so that they cannot generate a source of ignition. Explosion prevention and protection requirements are governed by specific norms and standards, and a main part of the explosion risk assessment is related to the assessment of the compliance of the equipment / installation with these requirements.

Assessment of What/For What? Teachers' and Head Teachers' Views on Using Well-Being and Involvement as a Screening Measure for Conducting Baseline Assessment on School Entry in English Primary Schools

Science.gov (United States)

Guimaraes, Sofia; Howe, Sally; Clausen, Sigrid Brogaard; Cottle, Michelle

2016-01-01

Baseline assessment has recently been trialled as part of an accountability measure in English primary schools. The research presented in this colloquium examines the views of teachers related to using well-being and involvement indicators as a starting point for baseline assessment. The findings suggest that the focus on well-being was welcomed…

Baseline Hemodynamics and Response to Contrast Media During Diagnostic Cardiac Catheterization Predict Adverse Events in Heart Failure Patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Denardo, Scott J; Vock, David M; Schmalfuss, Carsten M; Young, Gregory D; Tcheng, James E; O'Connor, Christopher M

2016-07-01

Contrast media administered during cardiac catheterization can affect hemodynamic variables. However, little is documented about the effects of contrast on hemodynamics in heart failure patients or the prognostic value of baseline and changes in hemodynamics for predicting subsequent adverse events. In this prospective study of 150 heart failure patients, we measured hemodynamics at baseline and after administration of iodixanol or iopamidol contrast. One-year Kaplan-Meier estimates of adverse event-free survival (death, heart failure hospitalization, and rehospitalization) were generated, grouping patients by baseline measures of pulmonary capillary wedge pressure (PCWP) and cardiac index (CI), and by changes in those measures after contrast administration. We used Cox proportional hazards modeling to assess sequentially adding baseline PCWP and change in CI to 5 validated risk models (Seattle Heart Failure Score, ESCAPE [Evaluation Study of Congestive Heart Failure and Pulmonary Artery Catheterization Effectiveness], CHARM [Candesartan in Heart Failure: Assessment of Reduction in Mortality and Morbidity], CORONA [Controlled Rosuvastatin Multinational Trial in Heart Failure], and MAGGIC [Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure]). Median contrast volume was 109 mL. Both contrast media caused similarly small but statistically significant changes in most hemodynamic variables. There were 39 adverse events (26.0%). Adverse event rates increased using the composite metric of baseline PCWP and change in CI (Pcontrast correlated with the poorest prognosis. Adding both baseline PCWP and change in CI to the 5 risk models universally improved their predictive value (P≤0.02). In heart failure patients, the administration of contrast causes small but significant changes in hemodynamics. Calculating baseline PCWP with change in CI after contrast predicts adverse events and increases the predictive value of existing models. Patients with elevated baseline PCWP and

Cost effectiveness of risk-based closures at UST sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scruton, K.M.; Baker, J.N.

1995-01-01

Risk-based closures have been achieved at Underground Storage Tank (UST) sites throughout the country for a major transportation company. The risk-based closures were cost-effective because a streamlined risk-based approach was used instead of the generic baseline risk assessment approach. USEPA has recently provided guidance encouraging the use of risk-based methodology for achieving closure at UST sites. The risk-based approach used in achieving the site closures involved an identification of potential human and ecological receptors and exposure pathways, and a comparison of maximum onsite chemical concentrations to applicable or relevant and appropriate requirements (ARARs). The ARARs used in the evaluation included Federal and/or State Maximum Contaminant Levels (MCLs) for groundwater and risk-based screening levels for soils. If the maximum concentrations were above the screening levels, a baseline risk assessment was recommended. In several instances, however, the risk-based approach resulted in a regulatory agency acceptance of a ''no further action'' alternative at UST sites which did not pose a significant threat to human health and the environment. The cost of the streamlined risk-based approach is approximately $3,500, while a baseline risk assessment for the same UST site could cost up to $10,000 or more. The use of the streamlined risk-based approach has proven to be successful for achieving a ''no further action'' outcome for the client at a reasonable cost

Baseline HbA1c to Identify High-Risk Gestational Diabetes: Utility in Early vs Standard Gestational Diabetes.

Science.gov (United States)

Sweeting, Arianne N; Ross, Glynis P; Hyett, Jon; Molyneaux, Lynda; Tan, Kris; Constantino, Maria; Harding, Anna Jane; Wong, Jencia

2017-01-01

The increasing prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) necessitates risk stratification directing limited antenatal resources to those at greatest risk. Recent evidence demonstrates that an early pregnancy glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c ≥5.9% (41 mmol/mol) predicts adverse pregnancy outcomes. To determine the optimal HbA1c threshold for adverse pregnancy outcomes in GDM in a treated multiethnic cohort and whether this differs in women diagnosed HbA1c (single-laboratory) measurement at the time of GDM diagnosis. Maternal clinical and pregnancy outcome data were collected prospectively. The association between baseline HbA1c and adverse pregnancy outcomes in early vs standard GDM. HbA1c was measured at a median of 17.6 ± 3.3 weeks' gestation in early GDM (n = 844) and 29.4 ± 2.6 weeks' gestation in standard GDM (n = 2254). In standard GDM, HbA1c >5.9% (41 mmol/mol) was associated with the greatest risk of large-for-gestational-age (odds ratio [95% confidence interval] = 2.7 [1.5-4.9]), macrosomia (3.5 [1.4-8.6]), cesarean section (3.6 [2.1-6.2]), and hypertensive disorders (2.6 [1.1-5.8]). In early GDM, similar HbA1c associations were seen; however, lower HbA1c correlated with the greatest risk of small-for-gestational-age (P trend = 0.004) and prevalence of neonatal hypoglycemia. Baseline HbA1c >5.9% (41 mmol/mol) identifies an increased risk of large-for-gestational-age, macrosomia, cesarean section, and hypertensive disorders in standard GDM. Although similar associations are seen in early GDM, higher HbA1c levels do not adequately capture risk-limiting utility as a triage tool in this cohort. Copyright © 2017 by the Endocrine Society

Symptom assessment in early psychosis: The use of well-established rating scales in clinical high-risk and recent-onset populations

OpenAIRE

Fulford, Daniel; Pearson, Rahel; Stuart, Barbara K.; Fisher, Melissa; Mathalon, Daniel H.; Vinogradov, Sophia; Loewy, Rachel L.

2014-01-01

Symptom assessment in early psychosis research typically relies on scales validated in chronic schizophrenia samples. Our goal was to inform investigators who are selecting symptom scales for early psychosis research. We described measure characteristics, baseline scores, and scale inter-relationships in clinical high-risk (CHR) and recent-onset psychotic disorder (RO) samples using the Positive and Negative Syndrome Scale, Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale, Scale for the Assessment of Positive ...

The dry eye assessment and management (DREAM©) study: Study design and baseline characteristics.

Science.gov (United States)

Asbell, Penny A; Maguire, Maureen G; Peskin, Ellen; Bunya, Vatinee Y; Kuklinski, Eric J

2018-06-05

Describe trial design and baseline characteristics of participants in the DRy Eye Assessment and Management (DREAM©) Study. Prospective, multi-center, randomized, double-masked "real-world" clinical trial assessing efficacy and safety of oral omega-3 (ω3) supplementation for the treatment of dry eye disease (DED). RESULTS: Mean age of participants was 58.0 ± 13.2 years. Mean OSDI score at baseline was 44.4 ± 14.2. Mean conjunctival staining score (scale 0-6) was 3.0 ± 1.4, corneal staining score (scale 0-15) was 3.9 ± 2.7, tear break-up time was 3.1 ± 1.5 s, and Schirmer test was 9.6 ± 6.5 mm/5 min. DREAM© participants mirror real world patients who seek intervention for their DED-related symptoms despite their current treatments. Results regarding the efficacy of omega-3 supplementation will be helpful to clinicians and patients with moderate to severe DED who are considering omega-3 as a treatment. This trial design may be a model for future RCT's on nutritional supplements and DED treatments seeking to provide useful information for clinical practice. ClinicalTrials.gov number NCT02128763. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Chlorine transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lautkaski, Risto; Mankamo, Tuomas.

1977-02-01

An assessment has been made on the toxication risk of the population due to the bulk rail transportation of liquid chlorine in Finland. Fourteen typical rail accidents were selected and their probability was estimated using the accident file of the Finnish State Railways. The probability of a chlorine leak was assessed for each type of accident separately using four leak size categories. The assessed leakage probability was dominated by station accidents, especially by collisions of a chlorine tanker and a locomotive. Toxication hazard areas were estimated for the leak categories. A simple model was constructed to describe the centring of the densely populated areas along the railway line. A comparison was made between the obtained risk and some other risks including those due to nuclear reactor accidents. (author)

Probabilistic risk assessment, Volume I

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

1982-01-01

This book contains 158 papers presented at the International Topical Meeting on Probabilistic Risk Assessment held by the American Nuclear Society (ANS) and the European Nuclear Society (ENS) in Port Chester, New York in 1981. The meeting was second in a series of three. The main focus of the meeting was on the safety of light water reactors. The papers discuss safety goals and risk assessment. Quantitative safety goals, risk assessment in non-nuclear technologies, and operational experience and data base are also covered. Included is an address by Dr. Chauncey Starr

Risk assessment in maritime transportation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Soares, C. Guedes; Teixeira, A.P.

2001-01-01

A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation

Framework for ecological risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rodier, D.; Norton, S.

1992-02-01

Increased interest in ecological issues such as global climate change, habitat loss, acid deposition, reduced biological diversity, and the ecological impacts of pesticides and toxic chemicals prompts this U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) report, A Framework for Ecological Risk Assessment ('Framework Report'). The report describes basic elements, or a framework, for evaluating scientific information on the adverse effects of physical and chemical stressors on the environment. The framework offers starting principles and a simple structure as guidance for current ecological risk assessments and as a foundation for future EPA proposals for risk assessment guidelines

Classification of baseline toxicants for QSAR predictions to replace fish acute toxicity studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Nendza, Monika; Müller, Martin; Wenzel, Andrea

2017-03-22

Fish acute toxicity studies are required for environmental hazard and risk assessment of chemicals by national and international legislations such as REACH, the regulations of plant protection products and biocidal products, or the GHS (globally harmonised system) for classification and labelling of chemicals. Alternative methods like QSARs (quantitative structure-activity relationships) can replace many ecotoxicity tests. However, complete substitution of in vivo animal tests by in silico methods may not be realistic. For the so-called baseline toxicants, it is possible to predict the fish acute toxicity with sufficient accuracy from log K ow and, hence, valid QSARs can replace in vivo testing. In contrast, excess toxicants and chemicals not reliably classified as baseline toxicants require further in silico, in vitro or in vivo assessments. Thus, the critical task is to discriminate between baseline and excess toxicants. For fish acute toxicity, we derived a scheme based on structural alerts and physicochemical property thresholds to classify chemicals as either baseline toxicants (=predictable by QSARs) or as potential excess toxicants (=not predictable by baseline QSARs). The step-wise approach identifies baseline toxicants (true negatives) in a precautionary way to avoid false negative predictions. Therefore, a certain fraction of false positives can be tolerated, i.e. baseline toxicants without specific effects that may be tested instead of predicted. Application of the classification scheme to a new heterogeneous dataset for diverse fish species results in 40% baseline toxicants, 24% excess toxicants and 36% compounds not classified. Thus, we can conclude that replacing about half of the fish acute toxicity tests by QSAR predictions is realistic to be achieved in the short-term. The long-term goals are classification criteria also for further groups of toxicants and to replace as many in vivo fish acute toxicity tests as possible with valid QSAR

Risk assessment instruments in clinical practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Côté, Gilles; Crocker, Anne G; Nicholls, Tonia L; Seto, Michael C

2012-04-01

To determine whether the items in one of the most widely validated instruments of violence risk assessment, the Historical-Clinical-Risk Management-20 (HCR-20), are used in review board hearings to assess the risk of violence by people found Not Criminally Responsible on account of Mental Disorder (NCRMD). This study was conducted from October 2004 to August 2006 in Quebec's sole forensic psychiatric hospital and 2 large civil psychiatric hospitals designated for the care of people declared NCRMD in the Montreal metropolitan area. The risk assessments presented by clinicians at annual review board hearings and the boards' rationale for the release or detention of people found NCRMD were contrasted with the risk assessments conducted by the research team using the HCR-20. The final sample was comprised of 96 men. Very few of the risk factors identified by prior research (HCR-20 items) were mentioned in the hearing process, whether in clinical reports, discussions during the hearing, or in the disposition justification. The findings confirm that there remains a significant gap between research evidence and risk assessment practice.

Establishing a store baseline during interim storage of waste packages and a review of potential technologies for base-lining

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McTeer, Jennifer; Morris, Jenny; Wickham, Stephen [Galson Sciences Ltd. Oakham, Rutland (United Kingdom); Bolton, Gary [National Nuclear Laboratory Risley, Warrington (United Kingdom); McKinney, James; Morris, Darrell [Nuclear Decommissioning Authority Moor Row, Cumbria (United Kingdom); Angus, Mike [National Nuclear Laboratory Risley, Warrington (United Kingdom); Cann, Gavin; Binks, Tracey [National Nuclear Laboratory Sellafield (United Kingdom)

2013-07-01

Interim storage is an essential component of the waste management lifecycle, providing a safe, secure environment for waste packages awaiting final disposal. In order to be able to monitor and detect change or degradation of the waste packages, storage building or equipment, it is necessary to know the original condition of these components (the 'waste storage system'). This paper presents an approach to establishing the baseline for a waste-storage system, and provides guidance on the selection and implementation of potential base-lining technologies. The approach is made up of two sections; assessment of base-lining needs and definition of base-lining approach. During the assessment of base-lining needs a review of available monitoring data and store/package records should be undertaken (if the store is operational). Evolutionary processes (affecting safety functions), and their corresponding indicators, that can be measured to provide a baseline for the waste-storage system should then be identified in order for the most suitable indicators to be selected for base-lining. In defining the approach, identification of opportunities to collect data and constraints is undertaken before selecting the techniques for base-lining and developing a base-lining plan. Base-lining data may be used to establish that the state of the packages is consistent with the waste acceptance criteria for the storage facility and to support the interpretation of monitoring and inspection data collected during store operations. Opportunities and constraints are identified for different store and package types. Technologies that could potentially be used to measure baseline indicators are also reviewed. (authors)

Use of probabilistic risk assessment in maintenance activities at Palo Verde

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lindquist, R.C.; Pobst, D.S.

1993-01-01

Probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) is an important tool in addressing various maintenance activities. At the Palo Verde nuclear generating station (PVNGS), the PRA has been used in a variety of ways to support a wide and diverse selection of maintenance-related activities. For on-line or at-power maintenance, the PRA was used to evaluate combinations of maintenance activities possible with the 12-week or floating maintenance schedule. The maintenance schedule was evaluated to identify any higher risk, undesirable combinations of equipment outages, such as the sole steam-driven auxiliary feedwater pump and the same train emergency diesel generator. Table I is a sampling of the results from the maintenance schedule evaluation in terms of increase in conditional core damage frequency (CDF) above the base- line value due to maintenance on some important key safety systems and combinations thereof. The baseline CDF is 7.4 x 10 -7 per 72 h

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Salt Lake City, Utah. Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

1995-09-01

The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of two phases: the first is the Surface Project, and the second is the Ground Water Project. For the UMTRA Project site known as the Vitro site, near Salt Lake City, Utah, Surface Project cleanup occurred from 1985 to 1987. The UMTRA Project`s second phase, the Ground Water Project, evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and determines a strategy for ground water compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. A risk assessment is the process of describing a source of contamination and showing how that contamination may reach people and the environment. The amount of contamination people or the environment may be exposed to is calculated and used to characterize the possible health or environmental effects that may result from this exposure. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the UMTRA Ground Water Project at the Vitro site. The results of this report and further site characterization of the Vitro site will be used to determine what is necessary, if anything, to protect human health and the environment while complying with EPA standards.

Baseline risk assessment of ground water contamination at the uranium mill tailings site near Salt Lake City, Utah. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-09-01

The Uranium Mill Tailings Remedial Action (UMTRA) Project consists of two phases: the first is the Surface Project, and the second is the Ground Water Project. For the UMTRA Project site known as the Vitro site, near Salt Lake City, Utah, Surface Project cleanup occurred from 1985 to 1987. The UMTRA Project's second phase, the Ground Water Project, evaluates the nature and extent of ground water contamination resulting from uranium processing and determines a strategy for ground water compliance with the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) ground water standards established for the UMTRA Project. A risk assessment is the process of describing a source of contamination and showing how that contamination may reach people and the environment. The amount of contamination people or the environment may be exposed to is calculated and used to characterize the possible health or environmental effects that may result from this exposure. This risk assessment report is the first site-specific document prepared for the UMTRA Ground Water Project at the Vitro site. The results of this report and further site characterization of the Vitro site will be used to determine what is necessary, if anything, to protect human health and the environment while complying with EPA standards

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van der Knaap, L.M.; Leenarts, L.E.W.; Born, M.P.; Oosterveld, P.

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the

Ecosystem services as assessment endpoints for ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Munns, Wayne R; Rea, Anne W; Suter, Glenn W; Martin, Lawrence; Blake-Hedges, Lynne; Crk, Tanja; Davis, Christine; Ferreira, Gina; Jordan, Steve; Mahoney, Michele; Barron, Mace G

2016-07-01

Ecosystem services are defined as the outputs of ecological processes that contribute to human welfare or have the potential to do so in the future. Those outputs include food and drinking water, clean air and water, and pollinated crops. The need to protect the services provided by natural systems has been recognized previously, but ecosystem services have not been formally incorporated into ecological risk assessment practice in a general way in the United States. Endpoints used conventionally in ecological risk assessment, derived directly from the state of the ecosystem (e.g., biophysical structure and processes), and endpoints based on ecosystem services serve different purposes. Conventional endpoints are ecologically important and susceptible entities and attributes that are protected under US laws and regulations. Ecosystem service endpoints are a conceptual and analytical step beyond conventional endpoints and are intended to complement conventional endpoints by linking and extending endpoints to goods and services with more obvious benefit to humans. Conventional endpoints can be related to ecosystem services even when the latter are not considered explicitly during problem formulation. To advance the use of ecosystem service endpoints in ecological risk assessment, the US Environmental Protection Agency's Risk Assessment Forum has added generic endpoints based on ecosystem services (ES-GEAE) to the original 2003 set of generic ecological assessment endpoints (GEAEs). Like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are defined by an entity and an attribute. Also like conventional GEAEs, ES-GEAEs are broadly described and will need to be made specific when applied to individual assessments. Adoption of ecosystem services as a type of assessment endpoint is intended to improve the value of risk assessment to environmental decision making, linking ecological risk to human well-being, and providing an improved means of communicating those risks. Integr Environ Assess Manag

Cardiovascular risk assessment with oxidised LDL measurement in postmenopausal women receiving intranasal estrogen replacement therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kurdoglu, Mertihan; Yildirim, Mulazim; Kurdoglu, Zehra; Erdem, Ahmet; Erdem, Mehmet; Bilgihan, Ayse; Goktas, Bulent

2011-08-01

To investigate the effect of intranasal estrogen replacement therapy administered to postmenopausal women alone or in combination with progesterone on markers of cardiovascular risk. The study was conducted with 44 voluntary postmenopausal women. In group I (n = 15), the patients were treated with only intranasal estradiol (300 μg/day estradiol hemihydrate). In group II (n = 11), the patients received cyclic progesterone (200 mg/day micronized progesterone) for 12 days in each cycle in addition to continuous intranasal estradiol. Group III (n = 18) was the controls. Serum lipid profiles, oxidised low-density lipoprotein (LDL) and other markers of cardiovascular risk were assessed at baseline and at the 3rd month of the treatment. Lipid profile, LDL apolipoprotein B, lipoprotein a, homocysteine, oxidised LDL values and oxidised LDL/LDL cholesterol ratio were not observed to change after 3 months compared to baseline values within each group (p > 0.016). In comparison to changes between the groups after the treatment, only oxidised LDL levels and oxidised LDL/LDL cholesterol ratios of group II were increased compared to control group (p < 0.05). Intranasal estradiol alone did not appear to have an effect on markers of cardiovascular risk in healthy postmenopausal women. However, the addition of cyclic oral micronized progesterone to intranasal estradiol influenced the markers of cardiovascular risk negatively in comparison to non-users in healthy postmenopausal women.

Phase two of Site 300's ecological risk assessment: Model verification and risk management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carlson, T.M.; Gregory, S.D.

1995-01-01

The authors completed the baseline ecological risk assessment (ERA) for Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory's Site 300 in 1993. Using data collection and modeling techniques adapted from the human health risk assessment (HRA), they evaluated the potential hazard of contaminants in environmental media to ecological receptors. They identified potential hazards to (1) aquatic invertebrates from heavy metal contaminants in surface water, (2) burrowing vertebrates from contaminants volatilizing from subsurface soil into burrow air, and (3) grazing deer and burrowing vertebrates from cadmium contamination in surface soil. They recently began collecting data to refine the estimates of potential hazard to these ecological receptors. Bioassay results form the surface water failed to verify a hazard to aquatic invertebrates. Soil vapor surveys of subsurface burrows did verify the presence of high concentrations of volatile organic compounds (VOCs). However, they have not yet verified a true impact on the burrowing populations. The authors also completed an extensive surface soil sampling program, which identified local hot spots of cadmium contamination. In addition, they have been collecting data on the land use patterns of the deer population. Their data indicate that deer do not typically use those areas with cadmium surface soil contamination. Information from this phase of the ERA, along with the results of the HRA, will direct the selection of remedial alternatives for the site. For the ecological receptors, remedial alternatives include developing a risk management program which includes ensuring that (1) sensitive burrowing species (such as rare or endangered species) do not use areas of surface or subsurface contamination, and (2) deer populations do not use areas of surface soil contamination

Using toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic modeling as an acute risk assessment refinement approach in vertebrate ecological risk assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Ducrot, Virginie; Ashauer, Roman; Bednarska, Agnieszka J; Hinarejos, Silvia; Thorbek, Pernille; Weyman, Gabriel

2016-01-01

Recent guidance identified toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic (TK-TD) modeling as a relevant approach for risk assessment refinement. Yet, its added value compared to other refinement options is not detailed, and how to conduct the modeling appropriately is not explained. This case study addresses these issues through 2 examples of individual-level risk assessment for 2 hypothetical plant protection products: 1) evaluating the risk for small granivorous birds and small omnivorous mammals of a single application, as a seed treatment in winter cereals, and 2) evaluating the risk for fish after a pulsed treatment in the edge-of-field zone. Using acute test data, we conducted the first tier risk assessment as defined in the European Food Safety Authority (EFSA) guidance. When first tier risk assessment highlighted a concern, refinement options were discussed. Cases where the use of models should be preferred over other existing refinement approaches were highlighted. We then practically conducted the risk assessment refinement by using 2 different models as examples. In example 1, a TK model accounting for toxicokinetics and relevant feeding patterns in the skylark and in the wood mouse was used to predict internal doses of the hypothetical active ingredient in individuals, based on relevant feeding patterns in an in-crop situation, and identify the residue levels leading to mortality. In example 2, a TK-TD model accounting for toxicokinetics, toxicodynamics, and relevant exposure patterns in the fathead minnow was used to predict the time-course of fish survival for relevant FOCUS SW exposure scenarios and identify which scenarios might lead to mortality. Models were calibrated using available standard data and implemented to simulate the time-course of internal dose of active ingredient or survival for different exposure scenarios. Simulation results were discussed and used to derive the risk assessment refinement endpoints used for decision. Finally, we compared the

The challenge of defining risk-based metrics to improve food safety: inputs from the BASELINE project.

Science.gov (United States)

Manfreda, Gerardo; De Cesare, Alessandra

2014-08-01

In 2002, the Regulation (EC) 178 of the European Parliament and of the Council states that, in order to achieve the general objective of a high level of protection of human health and life, food law shall be based on risk analysis. However, the Commission Regulation No 2073/2005 on microbiological criteria for foodstuffs requires that food business operators ensure that foodstuffs comply with the relevant microbiological criteria. Such criteria define the acceptability of a product, a batch of foodstuffs or a process, based on the absence, presence or number of micro-organisms, and/or on the quantity of their toxins/metabolites, per unit(s) of mass, volume, area or batch. The same Regulation describes a food safety criterion as a mean to define the acceptability of a product or a batch of foodstuff applicable to products placed on the market; moreover, it states a process hygiene criterion as a mean indicating the acceptable functioning of the production process. Both food safety criteria and process hygiene criteria are not based on risk analysis. On the contrary, the metrics formulated by the Codex Alimentarius Commission in 2004, named Food Safety Objective (FSO) and Performance Objective (PO), are risk-based and fit the indications of Regulation 178/2002. The main aims of this review are to illustrate the key differences between microbiological criteria and the risk-based metrics defined by the Codex Alimentarius Commission and to explore the opportunity and also the possibility to implement future European Regulations including PO and FSO as supporting parameters to microbiological criteria. This review clarifies also the implications of defining an appropriate level of human protection, how to establish FSO and PO and how to implement them in practice linked to each other through quantitative risk assessment models. The contents of this review should clarify the context for application of the results collected during the EU funded project named BASELINE (www

RELEVANCE OF PROCESS RISK ASSESSMENT IN AIRLINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Oksana G. Feoktistova

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The notion of “the concept on assumed risk” that took over from the outdated concept of absolute security is analyzed, the increasing significance of operating risk assessment at the present stage is noted. Some basic risk assessment techniques are considered. Matrix technique of risk assessment is considered more thoroughly, and it may be used in risk assessment of airlines in the context of labour protection management system.The ability to correctly assess risks and develop appropriate precautionary measures will allow airlines to avoid incidents leading to drastic consequences for staff, as well as to direct and indirect costs for the enterprise among which there could be singled out both direct property damage and loss of profit and expenses connected to incident investigation, penalty and compensation payment, loss of business reputation and so on. To reduce the rate of accidents and to develop safe activities skills for airlines staff a risk assessment chart is supposed to be implemented, which will be an efficient accidents prevention involving the staff in the process and making them follow safe working conditions.Process risk assessment is an integral part of assessment of the whole enterprise activity and work efficiency of a department and particular workers evaluation system. Labour protection activity should be based on risk identification and its control. Risk assessment is a keystone of labour protection activity planning.

Uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Blöschl, Günter; Hall, Julia; Kiss, Andrea; Parajka, Juraj; Perdigão, Rui A. P.; Rogger, Magdalena; Salinas, José Luis; Viglione, Alberto

2017-04-01

Uncertainty is inherent to flood risk assessments because of the complexity of the human-water system, which is characterised by nonlinearities and interdependencies, because of limited knowledge about system properties and because of cognitive biases in human perception and decision-making. On top of the uncertainty associated with the assessment of the existing risk to extreme events, additional uncertainty arises because of temporal changes in the system due to climate change, modifications of the environment, population growth and the associated increase in assets. Novel risk assessment concepts are needed that take into account all these sources of uncertainty. They should be based on the understanding of how flood extremes are generated and how they change over time. They should also account for the dynamics of risk perception of decision makers and population in the floodplains. In this talk we discuss these novel risk assessment concepts through examples from Flood Frequency Hydrology, Socio-Hydrology and Predictions Under Change. We believe that uncertainty quantification in flood risk assessment should lead to a robust approach of integrated flood risk management aiming at enhancing resilience rather than searching for optimal defense strategies.

Reevaluating Interrater Reliability in Offender Risk Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

van der Knaap, Leontien M.; Leenarts, Laura E. W.; Born, Marise Ph.; Oosterveld, Paul

2012-01-01

Offender risk and needs assessment, one of the pillars of the risk-need-responsivity model of offender rehabilitation, usually depends on raters assessing offender risk and needs. The few available studies of interrater reliability in offender risk assessment are, however, limited in the generalizability of their results. The present study…

Integrated Waste Treatment Unit GFSI Risk Management Plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

W. A. Owca

2007-01-01

This GFSI Risk Management Plan (RMP) describes the strategy for assessing and managing project risks for the Integrated Waste Treatment Unit (IWTU) that are specifically within the control and purview of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), and identifies the risks that formed the basis for the DOE contingency included in the performance baseline. DOE-held contingency is required to cover cost and schedule impacts of DOE activities. Prior to approval of the performance baseline (Critical Decision-2) project cost contingency was evaluated during a joint meeting of the Contractor Management Team and the Integrated Project Team for both contractor and DOE risks to schedule and cost. At that time, the contractor cost and schedule risk value was $41.3M and the DOE cost and schedule risk contingency value is $39.0M. The contractor cost and schedule risk value of $41.3M was retained in the performance baseline as the contractor's management reserve for risk contingency. The DOE cost and schedule risk value of $39.0M has been retained in the performance baseline as the DOE Contingency. The performance baseline for the project was approved in December 2006 (Garman 2006). The project will continue to manage to the performance baseline and change control thresholds identified in PLN-1963, ''Idaho Cleanup Project Sodium-Bearing Waste Treatment Project Execution Plan'' (PEP)

Enhancing the ecological risk assessment process.

Science.gov (United States)

Dale, Virginia H; Biddinger, Gregory R; Newman, Michael C; Oris, James T; Suter, Glenn W; Thompson, Timothy; Armitage, Thomas M; Meyer, Judith L; Allen-King, Richelle M; Burton, G Allen; Chapman, Peter M; Conquest, Loveday L; Fernandez, Ivan J; Landis, Wayne G; Master, Lawrence L; Mitsch, William J; Mueller, Thomas C; Rabeni, Charles F; Rodewald, Amanda D; Sanders, James G; van Heerden, Ivor L

2008-07-01

The Ecological Processes and Effects Committee of the US Environmental Protection Agency Science Advisory Board conducted a self-initiated study and convened a public workshop to characterize the state of the ecological risk assessment (ERA), with a view toward advancing the science and application of the process. That survey and analysis of ERA in decision making shows that such assessments have been most effective when clear management goals were included in the problem formulation; translated into information needs; and developed in collaboration with decision makers, assessors, scientists, and stakeholders. This process is best facilitated when risk managers, risk assessors, and stakeholders are engaged in an ongoing dialogue about problem formulation. Identification and acknowledgment of uncertainties that have the potential to profoundly affect the results and outcome of risk assessments also improves assessment effectiveness. Thus we suggest 1) through peer review of ERAs be conducted at the problem formulation stage and 2) the predictive power of risk-based decision making be expanded to reduce uncertainties through analytical and methodological approaches like life cycle analysis. Risk assessment and monitoring programs need better integration to reduce uncertainty and to evaluate risk management decision outcomes. Postdecision audit programs should be initiated to evaluate the environmental outcomes of risk-based decisions. In addition, a process should be developed to demonstrate how monitoring data can be used to reduce uncertainties. Ecological risk assessments should include the effects of chemical and nonchemical stressors at multiple levels of biological organization and spatial scale, and the extent and resolution of the pertinent scales and levels of organization should be explicitly considered during problem formulation. An approach to interpreting lines of evidence and weight of evidence is critically needed for complex assessments, and it would

Use of the Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique can lead to more robust risk control options.

Science.gov (United States)

Card, Alan J; Simsekler, Mecit Can Emre; Clark, Michael; Ward, James R; Clarkson, P John

2014-01-01

Risk assessment is widely used to improve patient safety, but healthcare workers are not trained to design robust solutions to the risks they uncover. This leads to an overreliance on the weakest category of risk control recommendations: administrative controls. Increasing the proportion of non-administrative risk control options (NARCOs) generated would enable (though not ensure) the adoption of more robust solutions. Experimentally assess a method for generating stronger risk controls: The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique. Participants generated risk control options in response to two patient safety scenarios. Scenario 1 (baseline): All participants used current practice (unstructured brainstorming). Scenario 2: Control group used current practice; intervention group used the GO-ARC Technique. To control for individual differences between participants, analysis focused on the change in the proportion of NARCOs for each group. Proportion of NARCOs decreased from 0.18 at baseline to 0.12. Intervention group: Proportion increased from 0.10 at baseline to 0.29 using the GO-ARC Technique. Results were statistically significant. There was no decrease in the number of administrative controls generated by the intervention group. The Generating Options for Active Risk Control (GO-ARC) Technique appears to lead to more robust risk control options.

Baseline assessment of doses and risk due to natural radionuclides in edible biota of Domiasiat, Meghalaya, India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kumar, N.; Chaturvedi, S.S.; Jha, S.K.

2011-01-01

Radiation dose-risk assessment was carried out for cereal species Brassica compestris var. dichotoma, Oryza sativa var. Shalum1, Zea mays, Lactuca indica, Cumunis sativum, and Clocasia esculanta due to naturally available radionuclides 40 K, 238 U and 232 Th in Domiasiat area. The activity in biota and corresponding soil was measured by precipitation method using NaI(TI) detector. Transfer factor (TF) was for Oryza spp. (1.00E-01- 40 K, 8.76E-05- 232 Th, and 9.11E-05- 238 U), for Brassica spp. (5.39E-01- 40 K, 8.17E-04- 232 Th and 2.96E-04- 238 U) and for Zea spp. (3.41E-01- 40 K, 5.84E-05- 232 Th, 8.87E-05- 238 U) etc., respectively. A detailed physio-morphological study of the biota and extensive investigation of ecosystem was carried out for assessment. The data was modeled using FASSET for dose estimation and obtained total dose was 1.58E-04 μGy h -1 in Oryza spp., 2.87E-04 μGy h -1 Brassica spp. and 6.90E-03 μGy h -1 in Zea spp. etc. The dose was compared with the UNSCEAR dataset for screening level dose for biota. Zea spp. was more susceptible for the chronic radiation exposure. (author)

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mahmoudi, Hossein, E-mail: mahmoudi@uni-hohenheim.de [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Environmental Sciences Research Institute, Shahid Beheshti University, G.C. (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Renn, Ortwin [Department of Technology and Environmental Sociology (and DIALOGIK), University of Stuttgart (Germany); Vanclay, Frank [Department of Cultural Geography, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, University of Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Hoffmann, Volker [Department of Social Sciences in Agriculture, University of Hohenheim (Germany); Karami, Ezatollah [College of Agriculture, Shiraz University, Shiraz (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2013-11-15

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary.

A framework for combining social impact assessment and risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mahmoudi, Hossein; Renn, Ortwin; Vanclay, Frank; Hoffmann, Volker; Karami, Ezatollah

2013-01-01

An increasing focus on integrative approaches is one of the current trends in impact assessment. There is potential to combine impact assessment with various other forms of assessment, such as risk assessment, to make impact assessment and the management of social risks more effective. We identify the common features of social impact assessment (SIA) and social risk assessment (SRA), and discuss the merits of a combined approach. A hybrid model combining SIA and SRA to form a new approach called, ‘risk and social impact assessment’ (RSIA) is introduced. RSIA expands the capacity of SIA to evaluate and manage the social impacts of risky projects such as nuclear energy as well as natural hazards and disasters such as droughts and floods. We outline the three stages of RSIA, namely: impact identification, impact assessment, and impact management. -- Highlights: • A hybrid model to combine SIA and SRA namely RSIA is proposed. • RSIA can provide the proper mechanism to assess social impacts of natural hazards. • RSIA can play the role of ex-post as well as ex-ante assessment. • For some complicated and sensitive cases like nuclear energy, conducting a RSIA is necessary

Risk assessment [Chapter 9

Science.gov (United States)

Dennis S. Ojima; Louis R. Iverson; Brent L. Sohngen; James M. Vose; Christopher W. Woodall; Grant M. Domke; David L. Peterson; Jeremy S. Littell; Stephen N. Matthews; Anantha M. Prasad; Matthew P. Peters; Gary W. Yohe; Megan M. Friggens

2014-01-01

What is "risk" in the context of climate change? How can a "risk-based framework" help assess the effects of climate change and develop adaptation priorities? Risk can be described by the likelihood of an impact occurring and the magnitude of the consequences of the impact (Yohe 2010) (Fig. 9.1). High-magnitude impacts are always...

Establishing Baseline Normative Values for the Child Sport Concussion Assessment Tool.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooks, M Alison; Snedden, Traci R; Mixis, Benjamin; Hetzel, Scott; McGuine, Timothy A

2017-07-01

The Child Sport Concussion Assessment Tool (SCAT3) is a postconcussion sideline assessment tool measuring symptoms, cognition, and balance in preadolescent children. Minimal normative baseline data exist to aid decision making in clinical and athletic settings. To collect normative baseline data for the Child SCAT3 in a large cohort of young athletes. A cross-sectional study was conducted from May 31 to August 12, 2014, at various sporting events (basketball, soccer, baseball, and swimming) in Central Wisconsin among children 5 to 13 years of age who were English-speaking and did not report a lower leg injury within the past 2 months or a concussion within the past month. Data were analyzed between October 8, 2014, and September 12, 2016. All Child SCAT3 components were assessed: child and parent report of symptom number and severity, cognition (Standardized Assessment of Concussion-child version [SAC-C]), and balance (modified Balance Error Scoring System [mBESS] and tandem gait). Summary statistics, mean differences, and effect sizes were calculated for each test component. Participants included 478 children (234 girls and 241 boys; mean [SD] age, 9.9 [1.9] years]) and their parents. Age had the largest effect on all Child SCAT3 components, with children 5 to 7 years of age reporting higher mean (SD) symptom severity scores compared with those 11 to 13 years of age (18.2 [10.0] vs 11.3 [9.0]; mean difference, 6.86 [95% CI, 4.22-9.50]; effect size, 0.74) and performing more poorly on the total SAC-C (mean [SD] score, 19.5 [5.1] vs 26.1 [2.1]; mean difference, -6.59 [95% CI, -7.49 to -5.68]; effect size, -2.1), mBESS (mean [SD] score, 1.67 [1.8] vs 0.76 [1.2]; mean difference, 0.91 [95% CI, 0.53-1.29]; effect size, 0.68), and tandem gait (mean [SD] time, 22.2 [8.3] vs 14.0 [3.7] seconds; mean difference, 8.23 seconds [95% CI, 6.63-9.82]; effect size, 1.55). Sex had a small effect on the mean (SD) number and severity of symptoms reported by the child (severity: boys

Risk assessment - black art or science?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Moore, G.

1988-01-01

Measures of risk can be divided into two categories, those that observe or calculate the risk of a process or project, and those that rely on the level of risk as perceived by the people during the assessment. Collection of data of accidents (where cause and effect are obvious) and experiments on animals which can then be extrapolated to humans, are two ways of risk assessment. Mathematical models and computerized simulations, using either fault tree analysis or Monte Carlo methods are explained simply. Using these methods, experts are able to perceive risk fairly realistically. However, the general public's perception of risk is often quite different, as potential risk is assessed in different ways. The concept of tolerable risk is considered, particularly with reference to nuclear reactors such as Sizewell-B. The need to inform the public of safeguards and safety procedures so they have a better understanding of the risks of nuclear power is stressed. (U.K.)

Assessing the quality of restored images in optical long-baseline interferometry

Science.gov (United States)

Gomes, Nuno; Garcia, Paulo J. V.; Thiébaut, Éric

2017-03-01

Assessing the quality of aperture synthesis maps is relevant for benchmarking image reconstruction algorithms, for the scientific exploitation of data from optical long-baseline interferometers, and for the design/upgrade of new/existing interferometric imaging facilities. Although metrics have been proposed in these contexts, no systematic study has been conducted on the selection of a robust metric for quality assessment. This article addresses the question: what is the best metric to assess the quality of a reconstructed image? It starts by considering several metrics and selecting a few based on general properties. Then, a variety of image reconstruction cases are considered. The observational scenarios are phase closure and phase referencing at the Very Large Telescope Interferometer (VLTI), for a combination of two, three, four and six telescopes. End-to-end image reconstruction is accomplished with the MIRA software, and several merit functions are put to test. It is found that convolution by an effective point spread function is required for proper image quality assessment. The effective angular resolution of the images is superior to naive expectation based on the maximum frequency sampled by the array. This is due to the prior information used in the aperture synthesis algorithm and to the nature of the objects considered. The ℓ1-norm is the most robust of all considered metrics, because being linear it is less sensitive to image smoothing by high regularization levels. For the cases considered, this metric allows the implementation of automatic quality assessment of reconstructed images, with a performance similar to human selection.

Concerning ethical risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boeckle, F.

1991-01-01

After a fundamental consideration of the concept of responsibility and 'long-term responsibility' for late sequelae, the problems of an ehtical assessment of risks were illustrated: The concept of risk itself poses three problems - predicting the probability of occurrence, assessing the damage = subjective classification of the degree of damage, determining whether the advantages outweigh the risks. It is not possible to weigh the advantages and risks against each other without assessing the goals and the priorities which have been set. Here ethics is called for, because it concerns itself with the reasonableness of evaluative decisions. Its task is to enable us to become aware of and comprehend our system of values in all of its complexity in reference to real life. Ethics can only fulfill its task if it helps us to adopt an integral perspective, i.e. if it centers on the human being. 'One must assess all technical and economic innovations in terms of whether they are beneficial to the development of mankind on a long-term basis. They are only to be legitimized insofar as they prove themselves to be a means of liberating mankind and contributing to his sense of dignity and identity, as a means of bringing human beings together and encouraging them to care for one another, and as a means of protecting the natural basis of our existence. (orig./HSCH) [de