Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A variety of forecasting approaches have been used in the energy area. Forecast simulations provide a common basis for comparing the relative precision of different forecasting methods. This paper presents a forecast simulation made using smoothing procedures for forecasting time series. The simulation design, statistical analysis, and conclusions are provided.

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Our study evaluates the impact of forecast errors on organizational cost by simulating a labor-intensive warehouse environment using realistic cost data from a case study. Unlike past studies that measure forecast error in terms of forecast standard deviation, our study also considers the impact of forecast bias, and the complex interaction between these variables. Two cases of organizational cost curves are considered, with differing and asymmetric structures. Results find forecast bias to have a considerably greater impact on organizational cost than forecast standard deviation. Particularly damaging is a high bias in the presence of high forecast standard deviation. Although biasing the forecast in the least costly direction is shown to yield lower costs, sensitivity analysis shows that...

Environmental Research Database

ObjectivesProject VOLCANOSCOPE will evaluate strategies (1) for applying existing and new forecasting models to volcanic eruptions, and (2) for identifying methods to improve how forecasts are communicated effectively to vulnerable communities. To link forecasting and communication, the interdisciplinary study will assess how to engage all stakeholders - from monitoring scientists, through emergency agencies, to vulnerable communities - to optimize the understanding of forecasts among different end users. [continued...]DescriptionProject VOLCANOSCOPE will evaluate strategies (1) for applying existing and new forecasting models to volcanic eruptions, and (2) for identifying methods to improve how forecasts are communicated effectively to vulnerable communities. To link forecasting and communication, the interdisciplinary study will assess how ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The use of primary electron counting techniques as an alternative to the more usual parallel plate avalanche chamber that has been employed in soft x-ray scattering experiments is being investigated at the National Synchrotron Light Source. The theoretical aspects of primary electron counting and motivation behind building a primary electron counting detector are described, as well as characteristics and future improvements of the device constructed at the NSLS. The detector consists of a low electric field drift region and a low pressure multistep avalanche region which can be operated with two or three stages of electron multiplication. The device has worked well in extensive tests as a simple parallel plate avalanche chamber, providing energy resolutions of 58% and 43% at 277 and 500 eV, respectively. Operated as a primary electron counter, preliminary results show an energy resolution of 38% at 500 eV.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The most important developments in gaseous detectors at LNL are reviewed. Some aspects of timing, pulse height and position resolutions of avalanche counters are reported. The experimental work on heavy-ion identification by Bragg curve spectroscopy is summarized.

KoreaScience (Korea)

Full Text Available

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Significantly improved immunity to hot-hole damage of the SiO[sub 2]/Si structure is achieved by a shallow fluorine implantation into the poly-Si gate of MOS capacitors followed by a drive-in process. Compared to the nonfluorinated control, the fluorinated samples exhibit a dramatic reduction of both hole trapping probability and interface-trap generation under avalanche hole injection conditions. The degree of such an improvement increases monotonically as a function of the F implantation dose (up to 10[sup 16]/cm[sup 2]). Significant decrease of the hole detrapping rate is also observed in fluorinated samples. Possible mechanisms are discussed.

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Recently, the forecasting technologies for network traffic have played a significant role in network management, congestion control and network security. Forecasting algorithms have also been investigated for decades along with the development of Time Series Analysis (TSA). Chaotic Time Series Analysis (CTSA) may be used to model and forecast the time series by Chaos Theory. As one of the prevailing intelligent forecasting algorithms, it is worthwhile to integrate CTSA and Support Vector Machine (SVM). In this paper, after the vulnerabilities of Local Support Vector Machine (LSVM) in forecasting modeling are analyzed, the Dynamic Time Wrapping (DTW) and the ?Dynamic K? strategy are introduced, as well as a short-term network traffic forecasting algorithm LSVM-DTW-K based on Chaos Theory an...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Meteorological Service of Canada has made weather datasets available in real-time on the Internet, for use by those with an interest in solar applications. Ensemble weather models can be used to produce medium range forecasts of weather events and to predict the likely available kilowatt-hours (kWhrs) of solar energy. As such, solar sites can maximize their harvest and use of solar energy. This presentation highlighted several different types of renewable energy forecasts obtained from weather models, including forecasts of expected kWhrs from solar panels and wind turbines, daily forecasts of expected solar heated water volumes and forecasts of water collection potential from impending precipitation events. The value of renewable energy forecasts in helping the solar energy sector monitor daily energy loads as well as daily and weekly solar energy supply ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper describes the weekly load forecasting expert system (named WLoFy) which was developed and implemented for korea electric power corporation(KEPCO). WLoFy was designed to provide user oriented features with a graphical user interface to improve the user interaction. The various forecasting models such as exponential smoothing, multiple regression, artificial neural networks, rule-based model, and relative coefficient model also have been included in WLofy to increase the forecasting accuracy. The simulation based on historical data shows that the weekly forecasting results from WLoFy is an improvement when compared to the results from the conventional methods. Especially the forecasting accuracy on special days has been improved remarkably. (author). 9 refs., 5 figs., 6 tabs.

Science.gov (United States)

... of these points corresponds to the ( " 2) term in ... (d) is identical to the 1-sigma ellipse corresponding ... A new approach to linear filtering and predicted ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Non-linear autoregressive Markov regime-switching models are intuitive. Time-series approaches for the modelling of electricity spot prices are frequently proposed. In this paper, such models are compared with an ordinary linear autoregressive model with regard to their forecast performances. The study is carried out using German daily spot-prices from the European Energy Exchange in Leipzig. Four non-linear models are used for the forecast study. The results of the study suggest that Markov regime-switching models provide better forecasts than linear models. (author)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

By using a charge-sensitive preamplifier and methods of energy spectroscopy we investigated the response of a parallel plate avalanche counter in order to scan the Bragg curve. The detector was operated in butane, pentane and heptane which also served as stopping gases. In this paper, we report on results obtained with fission fragments from a /sup 252/Cf source. We achieved a separation of the light and heavy fragment groups in the interval of gas absorber thickness from about 500 ..mu..g cm/sup 2/ to 1.5 mg cm/sup 2/. The best energy loss resolution was achieved with pentane at E/papprox.=70 V cm/sup 1/ Torr/sup 1/ resulting in delta..delta..E/..delta..Eapprox.=13%. The corresponding shape of the ..delta..E spectrum reproduces correctly the nuclear charge distribution of the fragments. (orig.).

CERN Document Server

We show that tilting a model sandpile that has dynamic disorder leads to bistability and hysteresis at the angle of repose. Also the distribution of {\\it local slopes} shows an interesting dependence on the amount of tilt - weakly tilted sandpiles retain the quasi-continuous distributions of the steady state, while large tilt makes the distribution more discrete, with local slopes clustered round particular values. These observations are used to explain recent experimental results on avalanche shapes; we give a theoretical framework in terms of directed percolation.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

English 1 Feb 2009 [1 p.] United Kingdom Andelman, S Kins, Nick

International Science & Technology Center (ISTC)

Development of New Methods and Means of Assessing of Consequences of Radionuclide and Heavy Metal Salt Effect, Criteria of Forecasting Physiological State and Productivity of the Farm Animals under Conditions of Ecological Pollution of Environment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ammonia borane (AB) and sodium borohydride (SBH) are candidate materials for on-board hydrogen storage that can be dehydrogenated upon demand. The rheological properties of the dehydrogenated by-products are important to quantify their removal and transportability from the hydrogen storage system. This paper presents visco-elastic property (elastic stiffness and viscous damping) measurements of the spent fuels obtained from AB hydrolysis, hydrothermolysis and thermolysis; and SBH hydrolysis. Smaller stiffness and larger mobility (or smaller viscous damping) indicate better transportability of the spent fuel. In addition, flow property (dynamic angle of repose and avalanching time) measurements for the hydrolysis spent fuels of AB and SBH are also presented. Comparing with the SBH hydrolysis spent fuel, the AB hydrolysis spent fuel had a lower stiffness and larger mobility, as well as lower angles of dynamic repose and avalanche power peaks, ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The energy resolution of small NaI(Tl), CsI(Tl), BGO, GSO, YAP and LSO crystals has been studied using 16 mm diameter large area avalanche photodiodes (LAAPD) and a 52 mm diameter photomultiplier. The best result of 4.8% for 662 keV #gamma#-rays from a "1"3"7Cs source was obtained with a 9 mm in diameter by 9 mm high CsI(Tl) scintillator coupled to an LAAPD. Measuring the number of primary electron-hole pairs produced in the LAAPD and photoelectrons in the photomultiplier, as well as the noise contribution of the LAAPD, allowed a quantitative discussion of the results. The energy resolutions measured with LAAPDs are comparable to, or significantly better (at certain emission wavelengths) than, those obtained with the photomultiplier. At energies above 100 keV the energy resolution measured with the majority of crystals and the LAAPD was weakly affected by the photodiode noise contribution. The advantages and limitations of LAAPDs in energy spectrometry with ...

Science.gov (United States)

Key elements in strategic planning in the nonferrous mining industry are discussed. Included are price forecasting, financial planning, government relations, research and development, and exploration. Financial planning is discussed in terms of 1) forecasting of earnings, 2) investment policy and 3) tax planning. Costs of environmental liabilities are expected to have a major impact on the industry. (JMT)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A focal plane detector system consisting of a vertical drift chamber, parallel plate avalanche counters, and an ionization chamber with segmented anodes has been installed in the Broad Range Spectrometer at the Holifield Facility at Oak Ridge. The system, which has been designed for use with light-heavy ions with energies ranging from 10 to 25 MeV/amu, has a position resolution of approx. 0.1 mm, a scattering angle resolution of approx. 3 mrad, and a mass resolution of approx. 1/60.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This supplement is published once a year as a complement to the Short- Term Energy Outlook, Quarterly Projections. The purpose of the Supplement is to review the accuracy of the forecasts published in the Outlook, make comparisons with other independent energy forecasts, and examine current energy topics that affect the forecasts. Chap. 2 analyzes the response of the US petroleum industry to the recent four Federal environmental rules on motor gasoline. Chap. 3 compares the EIA base or mid case energy projections for 1995 and 1996 (as published in the first quarter 1995 Outlook) with recent projections made by four other major forecasting groups. Chap. 4 evaluates the overall accuracy. Chap. 5 presents the methology used in the Short- Term Integrated Forecasting Model for oxygenate supply/demand balances. Chap. 6 reports theoretical and empirical results from a study of ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The growing concern of the population with regards to the problem of atmospheric pollution has induced a change in the role of air quality monitoring networks, especially those monitoring air pollution in large cities which suffer from summer smog. The population is no longer satisfied with real-time measurements but wants to be warmed of high pollutants concentrations in advance. Some countries have been forecasting air pollution, and especially ozone, for a large number of years. Although most of them use statistical models based on the analyses of past conditions which induced high pollution episodes, some predict ozone levels using only their knowledge of the meteorological situation. Nowadays two trends appear regarding ozone forecasting: either very basic statistical methods, such as regression, or more sophisticated ones, such as neural networks. The paper then reviews several behaviours common to most forecasting ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

In the emerging restructured power system, the congestion management (CM) has become extremely important in order to ensure the security and reliability of the system. In addition to this, lack of CM can impose a hindrance in electricity trading. This paper presents a novel, growing radial basis function neural network (GRBFNN)-based approach for CM. For achieving CM, Nodal congestion price (NCP) forecasting is performed in real time competitive power market. NCP forecasting is an effective way of price-based preventive CM as it directly indicates the presence as well as the severity of the congestion in the system. In present paper, GRBFNN has been developed for NCP forecasting dividing the whole power system into various congestion zones. An unsupervised learning vector quantization (VQ)...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Atmospheric Release Advisory Capability (ARAC) at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory uses the U.S. Navy's Coupled Ocean/Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS) to supply high-resolution wind data for use in its real-time dispersion modeling system. ARAC has used COAMPS products to support several events and exercises, and COAMPS forecasts appear accurate, based on qualitative examination. Recently ARAC has developed a quantitative verification system which calculates COAMPS error and bias statistics, comparing COAMPS forecasts of various lengths with observational data. This paper shows how this system has been used to guide ARAC operators, who need an estimate of the likely behavior of COAMPS forecasts of various lengths in different regions, seasons, and weather patterns.

Science.gov (United States)

This report presents a summary of highlights of the year 1978. It then discusses: Research and development in numerical analysis and prediction systems; Techniques, development and application of new products; Analysis-forecast systems in operation use du...

UK PubMed Central (United Kingdom)

Amphibian population declines and sudden species' extinctions began to be noted at the beginning of the 1980s. Understanding the causes of the losses is hampered by our poor knowledge of the amphibian...Full Text Available

Science.gov (United States)

The system of the early forecast of radiation hazardous fluxes of solar cosmic rays in space on the basis of the real time neutron monitors data obtained by the NMDB (Neutron Monitor Data Base) network is created. The forecast system is based on a short cut technique of definition of a spectrum of solar protons from the data of the limited number of neutron monitor stations and with a simplified procedure of accounts. It is shown that the results of computations of solar proton spectra with the short-cut technique little differ from spectra obtained with a complete technique at energies less than 5 GeV. Thus the good agreement between derived from the neutron monitor data intensities of solar protons in an energy range of hundreds MeV with the data of direct measurements of solar protons at GOES-11 spacecraft is observed. The maximum of increase on neutron monitors outstrips on several hours (2-10) an appropriate maximum of radiation-dangerous ...

CERN Document Server

This paper introduces a new parsimonious structure for mixture of autoregressive models. the weighting coefficients are determined through latent random variables, following a hidden Markov model. We propose a dynamic programming algorithm for the application of forecasting. We also derive the limiting behavior of unconditional first moment of the process and an appropriate upper bound for the limiting value of the variance. This can be considered as long run behavior of the process. Finally we show convergence and stability of the second moment. Further, we illustrate the efficacy of the proposed model by simulation and forecasting.

CERN Document Server

The avalanche quantity of the information developed by mankind has led to concept of automation of knowledge extraction - Data Mining ([1]). This direction is connected with a wide spectrum of problems - from recognition of the fuzzy set to creation of search machines. Important component of Data Mining is processing of the text information. Such problems lean on concept of classification and clustering ([2]). Classification consists in definition of an accessory of some element (text) to one of in advance created classes. Clustering means splitting a set of elements (texts) on clusters which quantity are defined by localization of elements of the given set in vicinities of these some natural centers of these clusters. Realization of a problem of classification initially should lean on the given postulates, basic of which - the aprioristic information on primary set of texts and a measure of affinity of elements and classes.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This article describes the laser Thomson scattering principle and the developed system on HL-2A device. The high power Q-switch Nd:YAG laser, with a wavelength of 1064 nm, can sufficiently satisfy the measurement requirement. The polycromator consisting of avalanche photo-diodes(APD) and narrow band interference filters, can effectively improve the measurement of scattering light. The electron temperature is deduced by error-weighted lookup table method, which improves the data- processing speed or efficiency. Finally, the experiment results of the one-point electron temperature during different discharges of plasma are presented. (authors)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper discusses the mechanisms of gas breakdown at low values of pressure and inter-electrode gap, i.e. in the vicinity of the Paschen minimum. In this area of pressure and inter-electrode gap values, breakdown occurs either through gas or vacuum mechanisms, and also the so called anomalous Paschen effect appears. Electrical breakdown of electropositive, electronegative and noble gases has been investigated theoretically, experimentally and numerically. Based on the results obtained, regions in which particular breakdown mechanisms appear have been demarcated. Special attention has been devoted to the anomalous Paschen effect as well as to the avalanche vacuum breakdown mechanism.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A novel floating-gate avalanche injection (FAMOS) type erasable programmable read-only memory (EPROM) device is demonstrated, with a heavily focused ion-beam (FIB) implanted region of about 0.2-..mu..m width at the drain edge of the channel. This heavily B/sup +/-doped region permits a higher electric field near the drain edge, resulting in a remarkable increase of the hot-carrier generation rate, and reduces both the programming voltage and programming time. A three-dimensional device simulator, CADDETH, predicted that the electric field at the drain edge would increase by about six times, which would lead to hot-carrier generation efficiency three orders of magnitude higher.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A large area Bragg curve spectroscopy (BCS) detector and a position sensitive parallel grid avalanche counter have been developed to study heavy ion reactions, such as inelastic excitations and few nucleon transfer reactions near the Coulomb barrier. Reasonably good resolutions have been achieved for energy, atomic number and angle. A theoretical investigation on the mass dependence of the Bragg peak signal from the BCS detector, shows that there is a negligible mass dependence related to the geometry of the detector. The mass number of the heavy ions which cannot be obtained by the above method, has been identified by detecting the corresponding characteristic gamma rays from the product nuclei with two large solid angle gamma ray detectors. (orig.).

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In the case of a serious accident and as a precautionary measure, several protection actions can be implemented by the prefect during the emergency phase. In France the levels of intervention are given by a ministerial decree of the 13. october 2003, resuming recommendations of the International Atomic Energy Agency. The selected values are: an efficient dose of 10 mSv for the stake under cover and in the listening: the concerned persons have to put under cover in a building, any openings carefully closed and stay in the listening of the orders of the prefect; an efficient dose of 50 mSv for evacuation; an efficient dose to the thyroid of 100 mSv for the taking of stable iodine tablets. In order to help the authorities to choose between the keeping of populations at their place or immediate evacuation the decision criteria are: if the forecasted efficient dose of the first month is under 1 mSv, the populations stay in place; if the forecasted ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The DOETRAN model is a DSM database manager, developed to act as an intermediary between the whole building energy simulation model, DOE-2, and the DBEDT DSM Forecasting Model. DOETRAN accepts output data from DOE-2 and TRANslates that into the format required by the forecasting model. DOETRAN operates in the Windows environment and was developed using the relational database management software, Paradox 5.0 for Windows. It is not necessary to have any knowledge of Paradox to use DOETRAN. DOETRAN utilizes the powerful database manager capabilities of Paradox through a series of customized user-friendly windows displaying buttons and menus with simple and clear functions. The DOETRAN model performs three basic functions, with an optional fourth. The first function is to configure the user`s computer for DOETRAN. The second function is to import DOE-2 files with energy and loadshape data for each building type. The third main function is to then ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A closed economic system was assumed for the Veneto Region (Italy) in order to define an appropriate input-output model and assess the future economic and environmental impacts of proposed actions for energy source development and economic growth. Present and forecasted energy demands (to the year 2000) were determined by energy source, e.g., natural gas, coal, petroleum and hydropower for the different consuming sectors - agriculture, transportation, industry, etc. Forecasts were made of the air pollution expected as a result of different types of energy and technology inputs for each sector. These considered planned retrofits towards clean combustion systems. Costs were estimated for the implementation of proposed pollution abatement measures, as well as, for the effects of energy use related environmental damage and measures to restore the environment. Some of the factors taken into account were: the regional impacts of the Italian National ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) prepares quarterly, short-term energy supply, demand, and price projections for publication in February, May, August, and November in the Short-Term Energy Outlook (Outlook). An annual supplement analyzes the performance of previous forecasts, compares recent cases with those of other forecasting services, and discusses current topics related to the short-term energy markets. (See Short-Term Energy Outlook Annual Supplement, DOE/EIA-0202.) The forecast period for this issue of the Outlook extends from the third quarter of 1993 through the fourth quarter of 1994. Values for the second quarter of 1993, however, are preliminary EIA estimates (for example, some monthly values for petroleum supply and disposition are derived in part from weekly data reported in the Weekly Petroleum Status Report) or are calculated from model simulations using the latest exogenous information available ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

To significantly improve the simulation of climate by general circulation models (GCMs), systematic errors in representations of relevant processes must first be identified, and then reduced. This endeavor demands that the GCM parameterizations of unresolved processes, in particular, should be tested over a wide range of time scales, not just in climate simulations. Thus, a numerical weather prediction (NWP) methodology for evaluating model parameterizations and gaining insights into their behavior may prove useful, provided that suitable adaptations are made for implementation in climate GCMs. This method entails the generation of short-range weather forecasts by a realistically initialized climate GCM, and the application of six-hourly NWP analyses and observations of parameterized variables to evaluate these forecasts. The behavior of the parameterizations in such a weather-forecasting framework can provide insights on ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A programme to optimize the short-term operation planning of hydrothermal system scheduling is presented. Based on heuristics, an operational planning of pumped storage plants and a method for fast evaluations of spot market deals under consideration of load forecast errors was developed. (orig.) [German] Vorgestellt wird ein Programm, das - basierend auf Heuristiken - den kurzfristigen Einsatz eines hydrothermischen Kraftwerksparks optimiert. Im Programm wurde dazu ein Verfahren zur Pumpseichereinsatzplanung und zur sekundenschnellen Bewertung von Spot-Markt-Geschaeften unter Beruecksichtigung von Lastprognosefehlern entwickelt. (orig.)

CERN Document Server

Production in economy is a set of firms' activities as suppliers and customers; a firm buys goods from other firms, puts added-values and sells products to others in a giant network of production. Empirical study has been lacking despite of the fact that the structure of production network is important to understand and make models for many aspects of dynamics in economy. We study a nation-wide production network comprising a million of firms and millions of supplier-customer links by using recent statistical methods developed in physics. We show in the empirical analysis scale-free degree distribution, disassortativity, correlation of degree to firm-size, and community structure having sectoral and regional modules. Since suppliers usually provide credit to their customers, who supply to theirs in turn, each link is actually a creditor-debtor relation. We also study chains of failures or bankruptcies that take place along those links in the network, and the ...

Science.gov (United States)

A newly developed 220 Mbps free-space 4-ary pulse position modulation (PPM) direct detection optical communication system is described. High speed GaAs integrated circuits were used to construct the PPM encoder and receiver electronic circuits. Both PPM slot and word timing recovery were provided in the PPM receiver. The optical transmitter consisted of an AlGaAs laser diode (Mitsubishi ML5702A, lambda=821nm) and a high speed driver unit. The photodetector consisted of a silicon avalanche photodiode (APD) (RCA30902S) preceded by an optical interference filter (delta lambda=10nm). Preliminary tests showed that the self-synchronized PPM receiver could achieve a receiver bit error rate of less than 10(exp -6) at 25 nW average received optical signal power or 360 photons per transmitted information bit. The relatively poor receiver sensitivity was believed to be caused by the insufficient electronic bandwidth of the APD preamplifier and the poor linearity of the ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report details the data, assumptions and methodology for end-use forecasting of appliance energy use in the US residential sector. Our analysis uses the modeling framework provided by the Appliance Model in the Residential End-Use Energy Planning System (REEPS), which was developed by the Electric Power Research Institute. In this modeling framework, appliances include essentially all residential end-uses other than space conditioning end-uses. We have defined a distinct appliance model for each end-use based on a common modeling framework provided in the REEPS software. This report details our development of the following appliance models: refrigerator, freezer, dryer, water heater, clothes washer, dishwasher, lighting, cooking and miscellaneous. Taken together, appliances account for approximately 70% of electricity consumption and 30% of natural gas consumption in the US residential sector. Appliances are thus important to those residential sector policies ...

Science.gov (United States)

This report is designed to cover the overall Operation Castle radiological safety matters from the viewpoint of those issues of direct concern to Headquarters, Joint Task Force Seven. It was written for the express purpose of assisting in the development of future radiological safety plans by presenting detailed discussion of the problems and solutions arising during Operation Castle. Included is a discussion of fallout forecasting techniques.

Science.gov (United States)

Oct 20, 2002 ... ASNOWsfc_sfc_forecastTimeUnit 1 ASNOWsfc_sfc_gridSize 0 ASNOWsfc_sfc_height 0 ASNOWsfc_sfc_level 1 ASNOWsfc_sfc_max 1.9312 kg/m^2 ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper presents general considerations concerning the application of artificial neural networks algorithms, more specifically the back-propagation learning algorithm and feed-forward multi-layer networks, to several problems in power system. The main application in power systems is the load forecasting, and two solution methods are used to solve it. (author). 45 figs., 32 tabs., 144 refs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In connection with the Public Inquiry into the CEGB proposal to build a pressurised water reactor at Sizewell in Suffolk, the case for nuclear power is examined under the headings: the economics of nuclear power - how they would like them to be; systems analysis - net effective cost; CEGB prejudices the results (comparison with coal-fired plants; forecasting on various assumptions); discounting future costs; back-end costs soar (reprocessing); real reprocessing costs; AGR costs balloon.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Planning Process of Brazilian Electric Sector Expansion, their normative aspects, instruments, main agents and the planning cycles are described. The methodology of expansion planning is shown, with the interactions of several study areas, electric power market and the used computer models. The forecasts of methodology evolution is also presented. (C.G.C.).

Science.gov (United States)

This collection contains 20 papers written by educators, administrators and information scientists who had conducted manpower surveys in the library and information fields: (1) "Background and Evolution of Educational Planning and Forecasting for Information Manpower" (Yves Courrier); (2) "Indicators for the Emerging Information Market" (Nick Moore); (3) "Information Scientists in the English-Speaking Caribbean: Challenges and Responses in the Development Process" (Gloria Greene, Reive Robb); (4) "National Survey on Manpower in Libraries, Information Centres and Archives in Thailand" (Suwakhon Phadungath); (5) "Predicting the Future: Manpower Forecasting for the Library and Information Professions in Southern Africa" (J. R. Neill, D. M. Mbaakanyi); (6) "Problems in Forecasting Manpower Needs" (Monique Jucquois-Delpierre); (7) "Electronic Measures for Human Resource Research" (Anthony Debons, Mariano Maura-Sardo, Anne ...

CERN Document Server

A comparison is carried out between two operational wave forecasting/assimilation models for the North Sea, with the emphasis on the assimilation schemes. One model is the WAM model, in combination with an optimal interpolation method (OIP). The other model, DASWAM, consists of the third generation wave model PHIDIAS in combination with an approximate implementation of the adjoint method. In an experiment over the period February 19 - March 30, 1993, the models are driven by the same wind field (HIRLAM analysis winds), and the same observation data set is assimilated. This set consists of a) spectra from three pitch-and-roll buoys and b) Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) spectra from the ERS-1 satellite. Three analysis/forecast runs are performed: one without assimilation, one with assimilation of buoy measurements only, and one with all data assimilated. For validation, observations from four buoys, altimeter data from ERS-1 and Topex-Poseidon, ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

In this study, e-waste flows of five large home appliances (color televisions, refrigerators, washing machines, personal computers, and air conditioners) in Vietnam are investigated. A social survey was performed to investigate the situation on using appliances in households as well as on the disposal of appliances by the first users. Future quantities of e-waste were estimated using a model that combines use of the Weibull distribution, the logistic function, and the population balance model. It was forecast that about 3.86 million appliances, or 114 000 tons, will be discarded in 2010, and about 17.2 million appliances, or 567 000 tons, in 2025, showing a rapid increase of e-waste in the near future.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The validation of the forecast model for early emergency response to nuclear accidents is evaluated by trace tests in atmosphere in Daya Bay nuclear power site. The simulation experiment of the Daya Bay nuclear power site shows that the particle spreading image and the time-integrated concentration distribution given by plume concentration prediction model can perform the variation of pathway of the pollutant transport, as well as the effects of topography on transport and diffusion of pollutants. The simulation of five trace tests in field shows that 59.1% of ratios between predicted results and observed results are within the range of 10, and 41% of ratios are within the range of 5 approximately. (authors)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Studies that estimate deficit probabilities in hydrothermal systems have generally ignored the response of demand to changing prices, in the belief that such response is largely irrelevant. We show that ignoring the response of demand to prices can lead to substantial over or under estimation of the probability of an energy deficit. To make our point we present an estimation of deficit probabilities in Chile's Central Interconnected System between 2006 and 2010. This period is characterized by tight supply, fast consumption growth and rising electricity prices. When the response of demand to rising prices is acknowledged, forecasted deficit probabilities and marginal costs are shown to be substantially lower. (author)

Science.gov (United States)

Seafloor mapping and morphometric analysis of landslide scars can provide useful insights for marine geo-hazard assessment, as demonstrated by several studies performed on different geological settings. The availability of high-resolution multibeam bathymetry and long-range side scan sonar data on the submarine portions of Stromboli Volcano allow us to map and characterize the main mass-wasting features that affect, on the whole, about the 90% of its submarine extension. In particular, two main kinds of tsunamigenic landslides have been recognized and analyzed. Large-scale sector collapses (Fig. 1) are catastrophic events that mobilize 1-2 cubic kilometers of material, generating huge tsunami waves that may affect Stromboli and propagate in surrounding areas; related hazard is not very high, as they show recurrence periods of some (or more) thousand years. Conversely, medium-scale landslides are more hazardous, as they occur at higher frequency with respect to the previous events, i.e. ...

Science.gov (United States)

This paper discusses the use of tracers as a reservoir engineering tool in fractured geothermal reservoirs. The principle concern in injecting cooler spent fluids into a fractured reservoir is that the fluids may move through high permeability channels and return to the production wells after contacting a relatively small volume of rock. As a consequence of this rapid transport, the fluids will be only partially reheated and after a short period time will effectively mine the heat from the limited volume of rock. The production wells will then experience a rapid and premature reduction in thermal output. Tracers can be used to infer the existence of high mobility conduits between injection and production wells and to monitor chemical changes of an injected fluid. Since tracer arrival precedes thermal breakthrough, tracer tests are a very useful forecasting tool.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Modern civilisation is based on substantial utilisation of energy. Rapid industrial development and improvement of living standards in India require energy planners to adequately forecast the energy demand and take appropriate measures in advance. However, the development and establishment of new technology is a slow process, sometimes extending over decades. Hence, energy options based on new technologies need to be planned for much in advance making allowance for uncertainties and delays. Fast Breeder Reactor (FBR) technology is an advanced energy option promising abundant and economic supply of power. Research and development work on FBRs has been conducted at the Indira Gandhi Centre of Atomic Research (IGC) since 1971. The international trends in FBR development are highlighted in this discussion and an overview of some of the research activities at IGC is presented. (author). 8 refs., 7 tab s.

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The spectre of major climate change caused by the greenhouse effect has generated intensive research, heated scientific debate and a concerted international effort to draft agreements for the reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. This report of Scientific Perspectives on the greenhouse problem explains the technical issues in the debate in language readily understandable to the non-specialist. The inherent complexities of attempts to simulate the earth's climate are explained, particularly with regard to the effects of clouds and the circulation of the oceans, which together represent the largest factors of uncertainty in current global warming forecasts. Results of the search for the 'greenhouse signal' in existing climate records aredescribed in chapter 3 (part two). Chapter 5 (part two) develops a projection of 21st-century warming based on relatively firm evidence of the earth's actual response to known increases in greenhouse gas emissions during the last 100 ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Capital investment in extra heavy crude production is expected to increase from $6 billion to $25 billion by 2005. In response to this forecast, producers are focusing their efforts on improving the quality of extra heavy crude right at the production sites to reduce their dependence on diluent, reduce pipelining costs, and to receive a higher return for their investment. Their efforts would also minimize environmental impacts at production sites. This slide presentation also proposed a solution to the problem associated with stability and incompatibility of thermal upgrading by taking advantage of the inherent incompatibility of extra heavy crudes and paraffinic diluents and using diluents to perform selective decarbonization (or the partial removal of asphaltene) to reduce heavy crude viscosity and density. A pilot-scale test has been conducted and a bench-scale unit will be carried out in Fall 2000.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This study has been carried out in the framework of a collaboration between the laboratory of processes automation (LAP, Caen (France)), and Air Com, a monitoring network for the prevention of atmospheric pollution in Basse-Normandie. It aims at obtaining a medium and long term forecast of the ozone level above the Caen city. The expected goal is to foresee the pollution peaks exceeding the warning thresholds, but the rareness of such events make them more difficult to predict. In order to solve this kind of problem, a neural modeling method combined with a noise injection technique has been implemented in order to obtain a sufficiently performing model over the whole domain of operation. (J.S.)

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Various SST indices in the Indo-Pacific region have been proposed in the literature in light of a long-range seasonal forecasting of the Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM). However, the dynamics associated with these different indices have never been compared in detail. To this end, the present work re-examines the variabilities of ISM rainfall, onset and withdrawal dates at interannual timescales and explores their relationships with El Ni?o-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and various modes of coupled variability in the Indian Ocean. Based on recent findings in the literature, five SST indices are considered here: Ni?o3.4 SST index in December?January both preceding [Nino(?1)] and following the ISM [Nino(0)], South East Indian Ocean (SEIO) SST in February?March, the Indian Ocean Basin (IOB) mode in ...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Purpose ? The purpose of this article is to expand the base of supply chain knowledge by applying chaos theory principles to selected supply chain functions. Design/methodology/approach ? Researchers borrow chaos theory from the natural sciences, provide a basic explanation, and then examine how it may be applied to enhance supply chain management techniques. Findings ? Chaos theory principles are used to assist in the examination of forecasting, product design, and inventory management challenges currently facing supply chain practitioners. Research limitations/implications ? Application of chaos theory to various supply chain issues and key functional areas may produce an increase in the level of understanding of supply chain ambiguity and how chaos theory may provide valuable insight in...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Summary 1.-The presence of Brucella abortus within free-ranging wildlife populations is an important conservation and management issue because of the risk of brucellosis transmission between wildlife and livestock. Predicting wildlife distributions is necessary to forecast wildlife and livestock spatial overlap and the potential for brucellosis transmission. 2.-We used Global Positioning System data collected from telemetry-collared female elk Cervus elaphus to develop resource selection function (RSF) models during the brucellosis transmission risk period (the abortion and calving periods). We validated extrapolation of predictive models at two nearby elk ranges within the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem. Additionally, we integrated extrapolated RSF maps and domestic livestock distributions...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The major contents in this study are as follows : - long-term forecast to the year of 2040 is provided for nuclear electricity generating capacity by means of logistic curve fitting method. - the role of nuclear power in a national economy is analyzed in terms of environmental regulation. To do so, energy-economy linked model is developed. By using this model, the benefits from the introduction of nuclear power in Korea are estimated. Study on inter-industry economic activity for nuclear industry is carried out by means of an input-output analysis. Nuclear industry is examined in terms of inducement effect of production, of value-added, and of import. - economic analysis of nuclear power generation is performed especially taking into consideration wide variations of foreign currency exchange rate. The result is expressed in levelized generating costs. (author). 27 refs., 24 tabs., 44 figs

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This guidebook concerns the design of air-conditioning and air-treatment installations in recent and old buildings. The design of indoor atmosphere treatment systems is based on a rigorous and safe methodology. The following aspects are reviewed: situation of ambient air treatment, different aspects of a project, humid-air technique, principles of air treatment, basic conditions for a successful project, determination of enthalpy and hydric loads of rooms, design of ambient treatment systems, cold water production using a thermodynamical system, aeraulics, hydraulics, acoustics, logics of operation, forecasting of energy consumptions, global management of air-conditioning installations, ambient air-treatment systems. (J.S.)

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Abstract Satellite measurements and numerical forecast model reanalysis data are used to compute an updated estimate of the cloud radiative effect on the global multi-annual mean radiative energy budget of the atmosphere and surface. The cloud radiative cooling effect through reflection of short wave radiation dominates over the long wave heating effect, resulting in a net cooling of the climate system of - 21 Wm-2. The short wave radiative effect of cloud is primarily manifest as a reduction in the solar radiation absorbed at the surface of - 53 Wm-2. Clouds impact long wave radiation by heating the moist tropical atmosphere (up to around 40 Wm-2 for global annual means) while enhancing the radiative cooling of the atmosphere over other regions, in particular higher latitudes and sub-trop...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

Major forecast errors on the background error covariance from initial conditions, atmospheric forcing, model open boundary conditions, and the river discharges are examined in a coastal model of northern South China Sea. The analysis of background error covariance matrix produced by model ensemble shows that the perturbations of the initial conditions and atmospheric forcing play major roles in producing and maintaining the amplitude of ensemble spread except for the sea surface height (SSH) field. The perturbation of model open boundary conditions can influence ensemble spread of all variables and covariance between temperature and velocity or between temperature and SSH. The perturbation of river discharge mainly affects the covariance of salinity in river estuary. A data assimilation ex...

British Library Electronic Table of Contents (United Kingdom)

The availability of hourly air relative humidity (HARH) data is a key requirement for the estimation of epidemic dynamics of plant fungal pathogens, in particular for the simulation of both the germination of the spores and the infection process. Most of the existing epidemic forecasting models require these data as input directly or indirectly, in the latter case for the estimation of leaf wetness duration. In many cases, HARH must be generated because it is not available in historical series and when there is the need to simulate epidemics either on a wide scale or with different climate scenarios. Thirteen modelling solutions (MS) for the generation of this variable were evaluated, with different input requirements and alternative approaches, on a large dataset including several sites a...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The goals of the program include predicting the impact of proposed new generating facilities, evaluating proposed high voltage transmission lines, assessing the impact of existing generating facilities, forecasting future demand for electric power, and investigating numerous information gaps through a long-range research program. The Power Plant Assessment Division (PPAD) is responsible for all PSC licensing support, site specific research, and radiological monitoring. The list of reports summarizes information of over 190 technical publications that represent the Program`s formalized research and monitoring efforts over the last five years. Reports are listed in chronological order by topical heading.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The report presents an integrated software system developed at the Norwegian Electric Power Research Institute (EFI), for production scheduling, maintenance handling, network security analysis, inflow forecasting, and load forecasting. The integrated software is being developed with focus on hydro-dominated power supply systems. In specific terms it is expected that application of the software will improve the operational decisions, and make the planning process more effective. The optimal scheduling of hydro resources poses severe computational problems in system operations planning. This necessitates problem decomposition. In the EFI approach, planning is split into three main levels: long-term, mid-term and short-term planning. The long-term planning aims at evaluating the seasonal and pluriannual handling of regional storages in view of firm power supply obligations, inflow statistics, main hydraulic and electric transit limitations, and ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper provided an outline of the Canadian natural gas commodity market and a forecast for Canadian natural gas supply and prices for the 2007 winter heating season. Since 2001, steady demand growth and slow supply growth have contributed to higher North American natural gas commodity prices. The loss of natural gas supply due to hurricanes pushed North American natural gas commodity prices to record levels in 2005. Canadian natural gas production levels currently exceed domestic gas consumption. In 2005, Canada produced 16.5 billion cubic feet per day of marketable natural gas. Approximately 45 per cent was consumed domestically, and the remainder was exported to the United States. Despite high levels of drilling activity, production of natural gas from western Canada has flattened out since 2001. In 2006, natural gas prices in Canada declined due to the restoration of United States Gulf Coast natural gas production; the absence of any major hurricanes; and a ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The generation of available potential energy (APE) in the space-time domain in January and July in a present-day climate simulation with a general circulation model (GCM) is compared with observations. An attempt is made to explain the differences. The generation is computed from the fields of diabatic heating and temperature. The heating is computed with the residual method, using UKMO (United Kingdom Meteorological Office) Unified Model GCM circulation data and ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) initialized analyses for the period 1989-1992. The global value of the generation of APE is about 35% larger in the GCM climate than the value computed from the analyses. This is mainly because the generation of transient eddy APE in the GCM is too large, due to the more than 40% too large generation of transient eddy kinetic energy by baroclinic processes. In most of the extratropics the local contribution to the generation of transient eddy APE ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This is the annual report of the Radiological and Environmental Division of the Argonne National Laboratory for 1982. Studies of the effects of ozone on crop growth and yield have been carried out by the Terrestrial Ecology Group for winter wheat and for sorghum. The Microcosms for Acid Rain Studies (MARS) facility was completed in the early summer. Controlled investigations of plant and soil responses in acid rain were initiated with crop plants grown in two different midwestern soil types. The Transuranics Group has found that the solubility and adsorptive behavior of plutonium previously observed at fallout concentrations in natural waters (approx. 10/sup -16/ to 10/sup -18/ M) is applicable at plutonium concentrations as high as 10/sup -8/ M. The Lake Michigan eutrophication model has been adapted to operation in a Monte Carlo mode. Simulations based on yearly phosphorus loadings and winter conditions were selected at random from prescribed probability distributions and used to ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

A preliminary assessment of the future refining impacts of the Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 has been performed with the Navy Mobility Fuels Forecasting Systems. The assessment suggests that gasoline reformulation costs in domestic coastal and near-coastal refining regions in the year 2000 could be 3.5 to 5.6 cents per gallon (in terms of 1989 currency). For heating value equivalent to one gallon of conventional gasoline, the regional total added costs (including reformulation costs) for reformulated gasoline could be 5.9 to 8.0 cents. In blending reformulated gasolines, the reduction of butane for lower Reid vapor pressure and the reduction of reformate for lower aromatics are generally compensated by increased percentages of alkylate and/or straight run naphthas. Relatively larger refinery process capacity additions are required for butane isomerization, alkylation, aromatics recovery, and distillate hydrotreating. 21 refs., 3 figs., 18 tabs.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Discusses the Methodological Directions for Expected Noise Calculation and Noise Reduction Design in Coal Preparation Plants developed at the Institute of Solid Fuel Preparation. Calculation of expected sound pressure levels is described. An exemplary chart of noise levels in the coal feed section of the coal preparation plant at the Taldinskii surface mine is presented. Procedures for planning noise pollution abatement measures and checking the expected noise levels are considered and explained on the example of the project of the coal crushing section in the Taldinskii plant (Kemerovugol' association) designed by Sibgiproshakht. A SMD-117 jaw crusher, 300 mm screen and a conveyor are to work in a space of 45,820 m{sup 3} with 30 m ceiling height. The expected noise level calculated for the working place of the crusher operator is 93-95 dBA without noise isolation and 85.5 dBA with noise isolation. A block diagram of a FORTRAN program for calculation of expected noise levels ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

A pilot project was started in 1977 over the Lake Superior basin to measure water storage on the land area using aerial gamma-ray spectrometry to provide hydrologic information for forecasting inflow to the lake. Two airborne surveys were made, respectively in November 1977 and March 1978 which provided estimates of the increase in snow water equivalent between these surveys. The basin is located on the Canadian Shield and consequently, the gamma radiation count rate is quite variable. The airborne results are compared with ground measurements on selected flight lines and show generally good agreement. Two equipment calibrations in the Ottawa area provided inconsistent parameter values which are consequently also reflected in the results over the Lake Superior basin. The project has demonstrated to-date that the technique can be developed into an operational system for measuring snow cover water equivalent of this vast and remote area by using well calibrated ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

With the November 1989 formation of the Office of Technology Development (OTD) within the Office of Environmental Restoration and Waste Management (EM) came the responsibility to develop programs to ensurethat enough trained and educated people would be available to support the achievement of EM's 30-year goal. This mission responsibility derives from public policy and Departmental environmental management requirements. Within DOE, urgency to move forward resulted from the assumptions (1) that the current workforce was insufficiently prepared for the transition from a production mission to a mission of environmental compliance and cleanup; and (2) that, given current trends and forecasts, the national education infrastructure was unlikely to yield the scientists, engineers, and technicians to meet future DOE workforce needs, especially in the case of women and minorities who, projected to make up two-thirds of the net entering workforce by the year 2000, ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In the region of annular liquid film-mist flow, the behavior of the droplets formed from the liquid film and the rate of formation are the subjects to be clarified in connection with the forecast of dry-out point, which becomes a problem in the region of high dryness such as reactor cooling system and steam generators. Many researches have been performed on such problem in vertical tubes, but the characteristics in horizontal flow have not yet been sufficiently clarified. This series of research is to clarify various characteristics, such as the velocity of vapor phase, the flow rate distribution of droplets, the formation and adhesion of droplets and the structure of liquid film, in the region of liquid film-mist flow, where liquid film exists on the bottom of a horizontal rectangular channel, and vapor flow is accompanied by droplets. In this study, by the measurement of the flow rate distribution of droplets on respective cross sections along channel axis, the ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This section contains the detailed measured impact results and market segment data for each DSM case examined for this building type. A complete index of all base and measure cases defined for this building type is shown first. This index represents an expansion of the base and measure matrix presented in Table 1 (residential) or Table 2 (commercial) for the applicable sector. Following this index, a summary report sheet is provided for each DSM measure case in the order shown in the index. The summary report sheet contains a host of information and selected graphs which define and depict the measure impacts and outline the market segment data assumptions utilized for each case in the DBEDT DSM Forecasting models. The variables and figures included in the summary report sheet are described. Numerous tables and figures are included.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper overviews the general features of computer program 'HEC-5, Simulation of Flood Control and Conservation Systems', with emphasis on the capabilities of the most recent release of HEC-5, Version 7.2, dated March 1991. HEC-5 can simulate the essential features and operation goals and constraints of simple or complex systems with simulation intervals ranging from minutes to one month. Single event flood analysis and period of record conservation analysis may be accomplished with the model. Flood control analysis includes balanced system operation for downstream damage centers with consideration of forecasted local flows and hydrologic routing. In addition, induced surcharge operation based on spillway gate regulation schedules can be simulated. Hydropower analysis may include run-of-river, peaking, and pumped storage plants as well as system power operation. Water supply simulation can include reservoir and downstream flow requirements in ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This work deals with a study on estimation of energy consumption in eight readily defined unit operations of cashew nut processing. Data for analysis were collected from nine cashew nut mills stratified into small, medium and large categories to represent different mechanization levels. Series of equations were developed to easily compute requirements of electricity, fuel and labour for each of the unit operations. The computation of energy use was done using spreadsheet program on Microsoft Excel. The results of application test of the equations show that the total energy intensity in the cashew nut mills varied between 0.21 and 1.161MJ/kg. Electrical energy intensity varied between 0.0052 and 0.029MJ/kg, while thermal energy intensity varied from 0.085 to 1.064MJ/kg. The two identified energy intensive operations in cashew nut processing are cashew nut drying and cashew nut roasting, altogether accounting for over 85% of the total energy consumption in all the three mill categories. ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

This paper explores the potential implications of climate change for the use and management of water resources in Britain. It is based on a review of simulations of changes in river flows, groundwater recharge and river water quality. These simulations imply, under feasible climate change scenarios, that annual, winter and summer runoff will decrease in southern Britain, groundwater recharge will be reduced and that water quality - as characterised by nitrate concentrations and dissolved oxygen contents - will deteriorate. In northern Britain, river flows are likely to increase throughout the year, particularly in winter. Climate change may lead to increased demands for water, over and above that increase which is forecast for non-climatic reasons, primarily due to increased use for garden watering. These increased pressures on the water resource base will impact not only upon the reliability of water supplies, but also upon navigation, aquatic ecosystems, ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The Canadian wind energy industry is experiencing rapid and unprecedented growth. The year 2006 saw the installation of 534 MW of wind energy across Canada, representing approximately $1 billion in new investment. It is anticipated that the wind energy industry will help to create jobs and training opportunities for many Canadians, as well as provide ongoing economic benefits to local communities through municipal tax and land lease payments. However, many challenges remain if Canada is to meet, or exceed, its objective of a total of 10,000 MW in installed wind energy by 2015. This conference provided a forum for wind industry member, academics and representatives of both governmental and non-governmental agencies to discuss issues related to wind energy development. The conference was divided into 3 streams. The policy stream examined issues related to the Canadian Wind Power Production Incentive (WPPI) program, as well as various federal policies regarding environmental assessments ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In the last two decades the performance of numerical wind-wave models has improved considerably. Several models have been routinely producing good quality wave estimates globally since the mid-1980s. The verifications of wind-wave models have mainly focused on the evaluation of the error of the significant wave height H{sub s} estimates. However, for wave energy purposes, the main parameters to be assessed are the wave power P{sub w} and the mean (energy) period T{sub e}. Since P{sub w} is proportional to H{sub s}{sup 2}T{sub e}, its expected error is much larger than for the single-wave parameters. This paper summarizes the intercomparison of two wind-wave models against buoy data in the North Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea to select the most suitable one for the construction of an Atlas of the wave energy resource in European waters. A full verification in the two basins of the selected model--the WAM model, implemented in the routine operation of the European Centre for ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Technology roadmaps serve as pathways to the future. They call attention to future needs for research and development; provide a structure for organizing technology forecasts and programs; and help communicate technological needs and expectations among end users and the research and development (R and D) community. Critical Technology roadmaps, of which the Robotics and Intelligent Machines (RIM) Roadmap is one example, focus on enabling or cross-cutting technologies that address the needs of multiple US Department of Energy (DOE) offices. Critical Technology roadmaps must be responsive to mission needs of the offices; must clearly indicate how the science and technology can improve DOE capabilities; and must describe an aggressive vision for the future of the technology itself. The RIM Roadmap defines a DOE research and development path for the period beginning today, and continuing through the year 2020. Its purpose is to identify, select and develop objectives ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

In order to prevent corrosion failures of machines and structures, it is desirable to know in advance when the corrosion damage will take place, and appropriate measures are needed to mitigate the damage. The corrosion predictions are needed both at development as well as operational stage of machines and structures. There are several forms of corrosion process through which varying degrees of damage can occur. Under certain conditions these corrosion processes at alone and in other set of conditions, several of these processes may occur simultaneously. For a certain type of machine elements and structures, such as gears, bearing, tubes, pipelines, containers, storage tanks etc., are particularly prone to pitting corrosion which is an insidious form of corrosion. The corrosion predictions are usually based on experimental results obtained from test coupons and/or field experiences of similar machines or parts of a structure. Considerable scatter is observed in corrosion processes. The ...

Science.gov (United States)

Accurate crop growth monitoring and yield forecasting are significant to food security and sustainable development of agriculture. However, regional crop growth simulation faces the difficulties in determining the spatial distribution of some model parameters and initial conditions. In this study, regional biomasses at turn-green stage of winter wheat were re-estimated by linking WOFOST model and Soil Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI) synthesized from remote sensing data. Moreover, we proposed a way of combining evapotranspiration derived from satellite remote sensing data to crop grow simulation model. Thus, the regional initial available soil water and irrigation at earring stage were re-initialized and re-estimated by using remote sensing data. Those methods were well applied to simulate the growth and development for winter wheat at local site. After regionalizing of weather data, crop model parameters and initial conditions, those methods were used to estimate ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

TransCanada Pipelines Limited submitted an application to the National Energy Board for new facilities to increase natural gas deliveries to its domestic and export markets. The proposed facilities consist of 1,590 km of pipeline, 21 new compressor units and two new compressor stations. The total cost of the facilities was estimated at $2,408 million. The Board considered at the hearing 15 applications made pursuant to Part IV of the National Energy Board Act for gas exports at existing delivery points at Emerson and Niagra Falls as well as at proposed new delivery points at Chippawa and Iroquois, Ontario. Twelve of these applications were filed in support of TransCanada's facilities application. Five applications were also filed pursuant to section 71 of the National Energy Board Act for orders requiring TransCanada to receive, transport and deliver natural gas offered by the applicants and to provide adequate and suitable facilities to do so. A public hearing was conducted ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The coalbed methane (CBM) geology, resource and production potential in the Weibei Coalfield, southeastern Ordos Basin are studied based on geological surveys and laboratory measurements. The results showed that coal rank varies both laterally and vertically and changes from volatile bituminous coals in the margin to anthracites towards the basin (1.6-2.5% R{sub o}). Coals are composed of 60-85% vitrinite, 15-40% inertinite and a trace amount of minerals. Methane isothermal adsorption measurements of 20 coal samples revealed that the maximum adsorption capacity (on a dry and ash-free basis) of coals, which are affected by coal rank, coal maceral, coal lithotype and especially to the moisture content, varies from 13.91 to 29.54 m{sup 3}/t. Estimated gas contents range from 0 to 15 m{sup 3}/t. These data yield an estimated in-place CBM resource of 2.5 x 10{sup 11} m{sup 3} for the Weibei Coalfield. In combination with the geological information, the data indicated that the tectonic ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The article provides a 1998 updated picture of Italy's and the world's photovoltaic market in terms of produced modules and total installed capacity, as well as market growth forecasts up to 2010. After a short description of the state-of-the-art of cell and module manufacturing, ana analysis of the cost of producing a photovoltaic kw is reported for different plant types: stand-alone plants with energy storage batteries, plants connected to low low voltage networks or intended for supporting medium voltage networks, hybrid plants with diesel sets. The article is concluded by illustrating ENEL's (Electric Power Production Company) engagement in the field of photovoltaic solar energy as regards theoretical studies, research and testing of new technologies, and installing plants; over nearly twenty years of activity, ENEL has designed and built a few hundreds of photovoltaic plants for a total capacity of about 4.000 kw, and is currently in ...

Science.gov (United States)

Decadal-scale climate variations over the Pacific Ocean and its surroundings are strongly related to the so-called Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) which is coherent with wintertime climate over North America and Asian monsoon, and have important impacts on marine ecosystems and fisheries. In a near-term climate prediction covering the period up to 2030, we require knowledge of the future state of internal variations in the climate system such as the PDO as well as the global warming signal. We perform sets of ensemble hindcast and forecast experiments using a coupled atmosphere-ocean climate model to examine the predictability of internal variations on decadal timescales, in addition to the response to external forcing due to changes in concentrations of greenhouse gases and aerosols, volcanic activity, and solar cycle variations. Our results highlight that an initialization of the upper-ocean state using historical observations is effective for successful ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Economic and safe operation of nuclear power plants requires reliable steam turbines with high efficiencies. The progress in flow mechanics achieved over the past few years has allowed the use of powerful methods of flow calculation in developments of new blading with greatly enhanced efficiencies. Thanks to the latest manufacturing techniques, the newly developed blading systems can be produced at low cost. Next to progress in flow mechanics, also the broadbased use of advanced finite-element calculations resulted in a more thorough grasp of the many problems associated with structural mechanics assessment of steam turbine components. The theoretical methods have been supplemented by comprehensive efforts in fracture mechanics and experimental materials studies, thus helping to create a reliable knowledge base which will help to avoid the dreaded stress corrosion cracking phenomenon, in components of steam turbines. The measures introduced to improve operational reliability already in ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This report provides a detailed description of, and the baseline assumptions and simulation results for, the building prototype simulations conducted for the building types designated in the Work Plan for Demand-side Management Assessment of Hawaii`s Demand-Side Resources (HES-4, Phase 2). This report represents the second revision to the initial building prototype description report provided to DBEDT early in the project. Modifications and revisions to the prototypes, based on further calibration efforts and on comments received from DBEDT Staff have been incorporated into this final version. These baseline prototypes form the basis upon which the DSM measure impact estimates and the DSM measure data base were developed for this project. This report presents detailed information for each of the 17 different building prototypes developed for use with the DOE-21E program (23 buildings in total, including resorts and hotels defined separately for each island) to estimate the impact of ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

This paper presents efforts to date and prospective goals towards development of a modelling and analysis framework which is comprehensive enough to address the global climate crisis, and detailed enough to provide policymakers with concrete targets and achievable outcomes. In terms of energy efficiency policy, this requires coverage of the entire world, with emphasis on countries and regions with large and/or rapidly growing energy-related emissions, and analysis at the 'technology' level-building end use, transport mode or industrial process. These elements have not been fully addressed by existing modelling efforts, which usually take either a top-down approach, or concentrate on a few fully industrialized countries where energy demand is well-understood. Inclusion of details such as appliance ownership rates, use patterns and efficiency levels throughout the world allows for a deeper understanding of the demand for energy today and, more importantly, over the ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

The authors present the results of an investigation of the effect of gamma radiation on the properties of low-molecular moulded polymethyl methacrylates (molecular weight distribution, physico-mechanical properties, resistance to the effects of aqueous media and physiological solution) in the form of copolymers of methyl methacrylate with methyl acrylate (MA) or butyl acrylate (BA) with the brand names Dacryl-4B, Dacryl-2M and Dacryl-4M (4% BA; 2 and 4% MA respectively) having a molecular weight of around 10"5. For comparison, block polymethyl methacrylate with a molecular weight of 3 x 10"6 was used. The results of experiments on the ageing of unirradiated and irradiated specimens in a heated store-room (t = 10 - 20"0C) and at high temperatures (90"0C) are also given. It is shown that irradiation with doses of 2.5 - 20 Mrad leads to radiolysis of the above copolymers, accompanied by destructive processes. Evidence of this is an increase in the polydispersity of the materials and a ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The advantage of high-resolution sequence stratigraphy, which takes base-levels as reference, is that it can be applied to continental depositional basins controlled by multiple factors and can effectively improve the accuracy and resolution of sequential stratigraphic analysis. Moreover, the principles of base-level cycles are also suitable for analyzing sequential stratigraphy in continental coal-bearing basins because of their accuracy in forecasting distribution of coal measures. By taking the Dongsheng coalfield in the Ordos basin as an example, the extensive application of base-level cycles in exploration and exploitation of coal is analyzed. The result shows that the Yan'an formation in the Dongsheng area is a long-term base-level cycle which is bordered by nonconformities and made up of five mid-term cycles and 13 short-term cycles. The long-term cycle and the mid-term cycles are obvious in comparison with a transverse profile. The episodic coal ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

The issue of projecting policies ensuring appropriate energy supply in the future has become more important in Germany after conclusion of the agreement on a long-term nuclear power phase-out. A recent comparative analysis of a selection of scientific studies forecasting the implications of a nuclear power phase-out has shown that there is demand for more studies examining the issue in greater detail, and on the basis of an enlarged scope of research topics. Hence the present study, intended as a preliminary analysis, will investigate the potential, conditions of successful application, conceivable support schemes, and effects of those policy options that in any case, apart from the nuclear power phase-out scenario, are of essential importance in the context of building the proper conditions for sustainable development of Germany's energy sector. The options and strategies examined are: stepping up energy efficiency programmes and incentives, enhancing ...

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reserve appreciation, also called reserve growth, is the increase in the estimated ultimate recovery (the sum of year end reserves and cumulative production) from fields subsequent to discovery from extensions, infield drilling, improved recovery of in-place resources, new pools, and intrapool completions. In recent years, reserve appreciation has become a major component of total U.S. annual natural gas reserve additions. Over the past 15 years, reserve appreciation has accounted for more than 80 percent of all annual natural gas reserve additions in the U.S. lower 48 states (Figure 1). The rise of natural gas reserve appreciation basically came with the judgment that reservoirs were much more geologically complex than generally thought, and they hold substantial quantities of natural gas in conventionally movable states that are not recovered by typical well spacing and vertical completion practices. Considerable evidence indicates that many reservoirs show significant geological ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Total river discharge in Pakistan in summer season vary from 3 thousand to 34 thousand cusses (100 thousand Cusses to 1,200 thousand Cusses) and can cause tremendous loss to human lives, crops and property, this causes the loss of most of the flood water in the lower Indus plains to the sea. Due to limited capacity of storage at Tarbela and Mangla Dams on river Indus and Jhelum, with virtually no control on Chenab, Ravi and Sutlej, devastating problems are faced between July and October in the event of excessive rainfall in the catchments. Due to enormous amounts of sediments brought in by the feeding rivers, the three major reservoirs -Tarbela, Mangla and Chashma will lose their storage capacity, by 25 % by the end of the year 2010, which will further aggravate the water-availability situation in Pakistan. The quality of water is also deteriorating due to urbanization and industrialization and agricultural developments. On the Environmental Front the main problems are water-logging ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

By August 2007, there were 438 nuclear power plants (NPPs) in operation worldwide, with a total capacity of 371.7 GW(e). Further, 31 units, totaling 24.1 GW(e), were under construction. During 2006 nuclear power produced 2659.7 billion kWh of electricity, which was 15.2% of the world's total. The vast majority of these plants use water-cooled reactors. Based on information provided by its Member States, the IAEA projects that nuclear power will grow significantly, producing between 2760 and 2810 billion kWh annually by 2010, between 3120 and 3840 billion kWh annually by 2020, and between 3325 and 5040 billion kWh annually by 2030. There are several reasons for these rising expectations for nuclear power: - Nuclear power's lengthening experience and good performance: The industry now has more than 12 000 reactor years of experience, and the global average nuclear plant availability during 2006 reached 83%; - Growing energy needs: All forecasts project increases in ...

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

By August 2007, there were 438 nuclear power plants (NPPs) in operation worldwide, with a total capacity of 371.7 GW(e). Further, 31 units, totaling 24.1 GW(e), were under construction. During 2006 nuclear power produced 2659.7 billion kWh of electricity, which was 15.2% of the world's total. The vast majority of these plants use water-cooled reactors. Based on information provided by its Member States, the IAEA projects that nuclear power will grow significantly, producing between 2760 and 2810 billion kWh annually by 2010, between 3120 and 3840 billion kWh annually by 2020, and between 3325 and 5040 billion kWh annually by 2030. There are several reasons for these rising expectations for nuclear power: - Nuclear power's lengthening experience and good performance: The industry now has more than 12 000 reactor years of experience, and the global average nuclear plant availability during 2006 reached 83%; - Growing energy needs: All forecasts project increases in ...