Natural disturbance reduces disease risk in endangered rainforest frog populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Roznik, Elizabeth A; Sapsford, Sarah J; Pike, David A; Schwarzkopf, Lin; Alford, Ross A

2015-08-21

Natural disturbances can drive disease dynamics in animal populations by altering the microclimates experienced by hosts and their pathogens. Many pathogens are highly sensitive to temperature and moisture, and therefore small changes in habitat structure can alter the microclimate in ways that increase or decrease infection prevalence and intensity in host populations. Here we show that a reduction of rainforest canopy cover caused by a severe tropical cyclone decreased the risk of endangered rainforest frogs (Litoria rheocola) becoming infected by a fungal pathogen (Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis). Reductions in canopy cover increased the temperatures and rates of evaporative water loss in frog microhabitats, which reduced B. dendrobatidis infection risk in frogs by an average of 11-28% in cyclone-damaged areas, relative to unaffected areas. Natural disturbances to the rainforest canopy can therefore provide an immediate benefit to frogs by altering the microclimate in ways that reduce infection risk. This could increase host survival and reduce the probability of epidemic disease outbreaks. For amphibian populations under immediate threat from this pathogen, targeted manipulation of canopy cover could increase the availability of warmer, drier microclimates and therefore tip the balance from host extinction to coexistence.

Transfer of risk coefficients across populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rasmussen, L.R.

1992-01-01

The variation of lifetime risk projections for a Canadian population caused by the uncertainty in the choice of method for transferring excess relative risk coefficients between populations is assessed. Site-specific projections, varied by factors up to 3.5 when excess risk coefficients of the BEIR V relative risk models were transferred to the Canadian population using an additive and multiplicative method. When the risk from all cancers are combined, differences between transfer methods were no longer significant. The Canadian projections were consistent with the ICRP-60 nominal fatal cancer risk estimates. (author)

Stochastic Model for Population Exposed to Low Level Risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkle, J.M.

1996-01-01

In this paper the stochastic model for population size, i.e. calculation of the number of deaths due to lethal stochastic health effects caused by the exposure to low level ionising radiation is presented. The model is defined for subpopulation with parameter (a, b) being fixed. Using the corresponding density function, it is possible to find all the quantities of interest by averaging over whole possible values for (a, l). All processes ar at first defined for one radionuclide, exposure pathway and the health effect under consideration. The results obtained in this paper are the basic quantities in the risk assessment, loss of life expectancy etc. The results presented in this paper are also applicable to the other sources of low level risk, not only the radiation risk

Population-averaged macaque brain atlas with high-resolution ex vivo DTI integrated into in vivo space.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Lei; Jeon, Tina; Yu, Qiaowen; Ouyang, Minhui; Peng, Qinmu; Mishra, Virendra; Pletikos, Mihovil; Sestan, Nenad; Miller, Michael I; Mori, Susumu; Hsiao, Steven; Liu, Shuwei; Huang, Hao

2017-12-01

Animal models of the rhesus macaque (Macaca mulatta), the most widely used nonhuman primate, have been irreplaceable in neurobiological studies. However, a population-averaged macaque brain diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) atlas, including comprehensive gray and white matter labeling as well as bony and facial landmarks guiding invasive experimental procedures, is not available. The macaque white matter tract pathways and microstructures have been rarely recorded. Here, we established a population-averaged macaque brain atlas with high-resolution ex vivo DTI integrated into in vivo space incorporating bony and facial landmarks, and delineated microstructures and three-dimensional pathways of major white matter tracts in vivo MRI/DTI and ex vivo (postmortem) DTI of ten rhesus macaque brains were acquired. Single-subject macaque brain DTI template was obtained by transforming the postmortem high-resolution DTI data into in vivo space. Ex vivo DTI of ten macaque brains was then averaged in the in vivo single-subject template space to generate population-averaged macaque brain DTI atlas. The white matter tracts were traced with DTI-based tractography. One hundred and eighteen neural structures including all cortical gyri, white matter tracts and subcortical nuclei, were labeled manually on population-averaged DTI-derived maps. The in vivo microstructural metrics of fractional anisotropy, axial, radial and mean diffusivity of the traced white matter tracts were measured. Population-averaged digital atlas integrated into in vivo space can be used to label the experimental macaque brain automatically. Bony and facial landmarks will be available for guiding invasive procedures. The DTI metric measurements offer unique insights into heterogeneous microstructural profiles of different white matter tracts.

The tyranny of the averages and the indiscriminate use of risk factors in public health: The case of coronary heart disease

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Juan Merlo

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Modern medicine is overwhelmed by a plethora of both established risk factors and novel biomarkers for diseases. The majority of this information is expressed by probabilistic measures of association such as the odds ratio (OR obtained by calculating differences in average “risk” between exposed and unexposed groups. However, recent research demonstrates that even ORs of considerable magnitude are insufficient for assessing the ability of risk factors or biomarkers to distinguish the individuals who will develop the disease from those who will not. In regards to coronary heart disease (CHD, we already know that novel biomarkers add very little to the discriminatory accuracy (DA of traditional risk factors. However, the value added by traditional risk factors alongside simple demographic variables such as age and sex has been the subject of less discussion. Moreover, in public health, we use the OR to calculate the population attributable fraction (PAF, although this measure fails to consider the DA of the risk factor it represents. Therefore, focusing on CHD and applying measures of DA, we re-examine the role of individual demographic characteristics, risk factors, novel biomarkers and PAFs in public health and epidemiology. In so doing, we also raise a more general criticism of the traditional risk factors’ epidemiology. We investigated a cohort of 6103 men and women who participated in the baseline (1991–1996 of the Malmö Diet and Cancer study and were followed for 18 years. We found that neither traditional risk factors nor biomarkers substantially improved the DA obtained by models considering only age and sex. We concluded that the PAF measure provided insufficient information for the planning of preventive strategies in the population. We need a better understanding of the individual heterogeneity around the averages and, thereby, a fundamental change in the way we interpret risk factors in public health and epidemiology.

NHS health checks through general practice: randomised trial of population cardiovascular risk reduction

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Cochrane Thomas

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The global burden of the major vascular diseases is projected to rise and to remain the dominant non-communicable disease cluster well into the twenty first century. The Department of Health in England has developed the NHS Health Check service as a policy initiative to reduce population vascular disease risk. The aims of this study were to monitor population changes in cardiovascular disease (CVD risk factors over the first year of the new service and to assess the value of tailored lifestyle support, including motivational interview with ongoing support and referral to other services. Methods Randomised trial comparing NHS Health Check service only with NHS Health Check service plus additional lifestyle support in Stoke on Trent, England. Thirty eight general practices and 601 (365 usual care, 236 additional lifestyle support patients were recruited and randomised independently between September 2009 and February 2010. Changes in population CVD risk between baseline and one year follow-up were compared, using intention-to-treat analysis. The primary outcome was the Framingham 10 year CVD risk score. Secondary outcomes included individual modifiable risk measures and prevalence of individual risk categories. Additional lifestyle support included referral to a lifestyle coach and free sessions as needed for: weight management, physical activity, cook and eat and positive thinking. Results Average population CVD risk decreased from 32.9% to 29.4% (p Conclusions The NHS Health Check service in Stoke on Trent resulted in significant reduction in estimated population CVD risk. There was no evidence of further benefit of the additional lifestyle support services in terms of absolute CVD risk reduction.

Truancy, grade point average, and sexual activity: a meta-analysis of risk indicators for youth substance use.

Science.gov (United States)

Hallfors, Denise; Vevea, Jack L; Iritani, Bonita; Cho, HyunSan; Khatapoush, Shereen; Saxe, Leonard

2002-05-01

Society increasingly holds schools responsible for the effectiveness of health promotion activities, such as drug abuse prevention efforts funded through the federal Safe and Drug-Free Schools program. Consequently, school districts use student surveys as a method for assessing trends and evaluating effects of programs on behavior. Because cost and practical concerns often preclude consistent population-based school survey sampling, risk indicators can provide an essential tool in analyzing needs assessment and program evaluation data. In this paper, three risk measures associated with substance use were selected from among commonly used school surveys. These measures--truancy, grade point average, and recent sexual intercourse--were compared, using meta-analysis techniques, to assess the reliability of risk measures across different survey instruments, different communities, and different points in time. Truancy was judged superior, because of its strong predictive value, particularly among younger students, and because rates can be compared to school records to assess sampling validity over time.

RISKAP: a computer code for analysis of increased risk to arbitrary populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leggett, R.W.

1986-06-01

The computer code RISKAP is used to estimate risk to a population exposed to radioactivity. Risk is measured in terms of the expected number of premature deaths resulting from radiogenic cancers, the number of years of life lost as a result of these deaths, and the average number of years of life lost per premature death. Radiation doses are used to compute an annual, age-specific risk of premature cancer death, based on a dose-response function selected by the user. Calculations of premature radiation deaths, deaths from all causes, and the new age distribution of the population are performed for one-year intervals. RISKAP has been designed to accommodate latency and plateau periods that vary with age at exposure and risk functions that vary with age at exposure as well as time after exposure. RISKAP allows the use of a linear, quadratic, or linear-quadratic dose-response function, although the code is structured so that the user may include an exponential factor or substitute any preferred dose-response function

Prioritizing avian species for their risk of population-level consequences from wind energy development

Science.gov (United States)

Beston, Julie A.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Loss, Scott; Johnson, Douglas H.

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species’ distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species’ conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson’s hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julie A Beston

Full Text Available Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future

Prioritizing Avian Species for Their Risk of Population-Level Consequences from Wind Energy Development.

Science.gov (United States)

Beston, Julie A; Diffendorfer, Jay E; Loss, Scott R; Johnson, Douglas H

2016-01-01

Recent growth in the wind energy industry has increased concerns about its impacts on wildlife populations. Direct impacts of wind energy include bird and bat collisions with turbines whereas indirect impacts include changes in wildlife habitat and behavior. Although many species may withstand these effects, species that are long-lived with low rates of reproduction, have specialized habitat preferences, or are attracted to turbines may be more prone to declines in population abundance. We developed a prioritization system to identify the avian species most likely to experience population declines from wind facilities based on their current conservation status and their expected risk from turbines. We developed 3 metrics of turbine risk that incorporate data on collision fatalities at wind facilities, population size, life history, species' distributions relative to turbine locations, number of suitable habitat types, and species' conservation status. We calculated at least 1 measure of turbine risk for 428 avian species that breed in the United States. We then simulated 100,000 random sets of cutoff criteria (i.e., the metric values used to assign species to different priority categories) for each turbine risk metric and for conservation status. For each set of criteria, we assigned each species a priority score and calculated the average priority score across all sets of criteria. Our prioritization system highlights both species that could potentially experience population decline caused by wind energy and species at low risk of population decline. For instance, several birds of prey, such as the long-eared owl, ferruginous hawk, Swainson's hawk, and golden eagle, were at relatively high risk of population decline across a wide variety of cutoff values, whereas many passerines were at relatively low risk of decline. This prioritization system is a first step that will help researchers, conservationists, managers, and industry target future study and management

Metapopulation extinction risk: dispersal's duplicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Higgins, Kevin

2009-09-01

Metapopulation extinction risk is the probability that all local populations are simultaneously extinct during a fixed time frame. Dispersal may reduce a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate. By contrast, dispersal may raise a metapopulation's extinction risk by reducing its average population density. Which effect prevails is controlled by habitat fragmentation. Dispersal in mildly fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk by raising its average per-capita growth rate without causing any appreciable drop in its average population density. By contrast, dispersal in severely fragmented habitat raises a metapopulation's extinction risk because the rise in its average per-capita growth rate is more than offset by the decline in its average population density. The metapopulation model used here shows several other interesting phenomena. Dispersal in sufficiently fragmented habitat reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk to that of a constant environment. Dispersal between habitat fragments reduces a metapopulation's extinction risk insofar as local environments are asynchronous. Grouped dispersal raises the effective habitat fragmentation level. Dispersal search barriers raise metapopulation extinction risk. Nonuniform dispersal may reduce the effective fraction of suitable habitat fragments below the extinction threshold. Nonuniform dispersal may make demographic stochasticity a more potent metapopulation extinction force than environmental stochasticity.

Inverse association between dietary vitamin D and risk of cutaneous melanoma in a northern Italy population

Science.gov (United States)

Vinceti, Marco; Malagoli, Carlotta; Fiorentini, Chiara; Longo, Caterina; Crespi, Catherine M.; Albertini, Giuseppe; Ricci, Cinzia; Lanzoni, Anna; Reggiani, Maurizio; Virgili, Annarosa; Osti, Federica; Lombardi, Mara; Santini, Marcello; Fanti, Pier Alessandro; Dika, Emi; Sieri, Sabina; Krogh, Vittorio; Seidenari, Stefania; Pellacani, Giovanni

2010-01-01

The possibility of an inverse association between vitamin D and risk of cancer and, in particular, of cutaneous malignant melanoma has been suggested, but results of epidemiologic studies are still conflicting. We examined the relation between dietary vitamin D intake and melanoma risk through a population-based case-control study (380 cases, 719 controls) in a northern region of Italy, a country with average vitamin D intake lower than in northern Europe or the US. We assessed average daily intake of vitamin D from foodstuffs using the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire. In this population, levels of vitamin D intake were considerably lower than those observed in recent US studies. We found an inverse relation between dietary vitamin D and melanoma risk in the sample as a whole, in both crude and adjusted analyses. In sex and age-specific analyses, this association appeared to be stronger among males and among older subjects. These findings suggest that, at the relatively low levels of intake observed in this sample, an inverse relation between dietary vitamin D and risk of cutaneous malignant melanoma may exist. PMID:21541899

Factors determining the average body size of geographically separated Arctodiaptomus salinus (Daday, 1885) populations

OpenAIRE

Anufriieva, Elena V.; Shadrin, Nickolai V.

2014-01-01

Arctodiaptomus salinus inhabits water bodies across Eurasia and North Africa. Based on our own data and that from the literature, we analyzed the influences of several factors on the intra- and inter-population variability of this species. A strong negative linear correlation between temperature and average body size in the Crimean and African populations was found, in which the parameters might be influenced by salinity. Meanwhile, asignificant negative correlation between female body size a...

Seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors among an urban population in Haiti

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Hepburn Matthew J

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The seroprevalence of hepatitis C varies substantially between countries and geographic regions. A better understanding of the seroprevalence of this disease, and the risk factors associated with seropositive status, supply data for the development of screening programs and provide insight into the transmission of the disease. The purpose of this investigation was to determine the seroprevalence of hepatitis C and associated risk factors in an urban population in Haiti. Methods A prospective survey for hepatitis C antibodies was conducted among an urban outpatient population in Cap-Haïtien, Haiti, with a sample size of 500 subjects. An anonymous 12 question survey, with inquiries related to demographic characteristics and risk factors for HCV acquisition, was concomitantly administered with testing. These demographic and behavioral risk factors were correlated with HCV antibody status using univariate and multivariate tests. Results The prevalence of positive HCV antibody was 22/500 (4.4%. Subjects that were anti-HCV positive had an average of 7 ± 8.6 lifetime sexual partners, compared to average of 2.5 ± 3.5 lifetime sexual partners among HCV-negative subjects (p = 0.02. In a multiple logistic regression model, intravenous drug use (OR 3.7, 1.52–9.03 95% CI and number of sexual partners (OR 1.1, 1.04–1.20 95% CI were independently associated with a positive HCV antibody result. Conclusions A substantial number of subjects with HCV antibodies were detected in this population in Haiti. Further investigation into the correlation between the number of sexual partners and testing positive for hepatitis C antibodies is indicated.

Assessment of Cardiovascular Disease Risk in South Asian Populations

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S. Monira Hussain

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Although South Asian populations have high cardiovascular disease (CVD burden in the world, their patterns of individual CVD risk factors have not been fully studied. None of the available algorithms/scores to assess CVD risk have originated from these populations. To explore the relevance of CVD risk scores for these populations, literature search and qualitative synthesis of available evidence were performed. South Asians usually have higher levels of both “classical” and nontraditional CVD risk factors and experience these at a younger age. There are marked variations in risk profiles between South Asian populations. More than 100 risk algorithms are currently available, with varying risk factors. However, no available algorithm has included all important risk factors that underlie CVD in these populations. The future challenge is either to appropriately calibrate current risk algorithms or ideally to develop new risk algorithms that include variables that provide an accurate estimate of CVD risk.

Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Shinzato, Takashi

2015-01-01

In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk) and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

Self-Averaging Property of Minimal Investment Risk of Mean-Variance Model.

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Takashi Shinzato

Full Text Available In portfolio optimization problems, the minimum expected investment risk is not always smaller than the expected minimal investment risk. That is, using a well-known approach from operations research, it is possible to derive a strategy that minimizes the expected investment risk, but this strategy does not always result in the best rate of return on assets. Prior to making investment decisions, it is important to an investor to know the potential minimal investment risk (or the expected minimal investment risk and to determine the strategy that will maximize the return on assets. We use the self-averaging property to analyze the potential minimal investment risk and the concentrated investment level for the strategy that gives the best rate of return. We compare the results from our method with the results obtained by the operations research approach and with those obtained by a numerical simulation using the optimal portfolio. The results of our method and the numerical simulation are in agreement, but they differ from that of the operations research approach.

Vertigo and dizziness in adolescents: Risk factors and their population attributable risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Filippopulos, Filipp M; Albers, Lucia; Straube, Andreas; Gerstl, Lucia; Blum, Bernhard; Langhagen, Thyra; Jahn, Klaus; Heinen, Florian; von Kries, Rüdiger; Landgraf, Mirjam N

2017-01-01

To assess potential risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and to evaluate their variability by different vertigo types. The role of possible risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and their population relevance needs to be addressed in order to design preventive strategies. The study population consisted of 1482 school-children between the age of 12 and 19 years, who were instructed to fill out a questionnaire on different vertigo types and related potential risk factors. The questionnaire specifically asked for any vertigo, spinning vertigo, swaying vertigo, orthostatic dizziness, and unspecified dizziness. Further a wide range of potential risk factors were addressed including gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration, migraine, coffee and alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking. Gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration and migraine were identified as independent risk factors following mutual adjustment: The relative risk was 1.17 [1.10-1.25] for female sex, 1.07 [1.02-1.13] for stress, 1.24 [1.17-1.32] for muscular pain, and 1.09 [1.03-1.14] for migraine. The population attributable risk explained by these risk factors was 26%, with muscular pain, stress, and migraine accounting for 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively. Several established risk factors in adults were also identified in adolescents. Risk factors amenable to prevention accounted for 17% of the total population risk. Therefore, interventions targeting these risk factors may be warranted.

[Latex allergy in a population at risk].

Science.gov (United States)

Ruiz Fernández, M; Flores Sandoval, G; Orea Solano, M

1999-01-01

The allergy to latex is an illness whose prevalence has been increased in very significant form in the last years. To know the allergy incidence to latex in population of risk, as well as to identify the related sintomatology and the importance or paper that play the atopia antecedents and time of contact with latex for the development of the illness. We carry out a prospective, descriptive, experimental and traverse study in population of risk, in the service of Allergy and clinical Immunology of the Hospital Regional Lic. Adolfo López Mateos, ISSSTE. One hundred patients of both sexes were included, with age of 20 to 50 years, with the antecedent of being personal medical and paramedic and to have presented contact with latex material in a minimum period of one year. They were carried out clinical history with registration of sintomatology nasal, bronchial, cutaneous and associated to contact with latex. They were carried out cutaneous test for prick to latex with positive control with the help of histamine solution and negative control with solution of Evans and immediate reading of the same one. 22% of the patients in study, they presented positive skin test latex, with a time of exhibition 10 year-old average, 68% presented antecedent of atopy personal, family and, likewise the associate sintomatology was in a 33.3% dermatology, 54.5 nasal, nobody presented bronchial symptoms and a 9% asymptomatic was reported. We support that the immediate skin test latex for Prick is an important parameter of support diagnosis for allergy to type 1 latex.

Prevalence of coronary artery disease risk factors in Iran: a population based survey

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Gafarzadeh Motlag A

2007-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Coronary artery disease (CAD is a leading cause of mortality, morbidity, and disability with high health care cost in Iran. It accounts for nearly 50 percent of all deaths per year. Yet little is known about CAD and CAD risk factors in the Iranian population. We aimed to assess the prevalence of different CAD risk factors in an Iranian population. Methods A descriptive cross sectional survey was conducted involving 3000 healthy adults at 18 years of age or above who were recruited with cluster random sampling. Demographic data and risk factors were determined by taking history, physical examination and laboratory tests. Results The average age was 36.23 ± 15.26. There was 1381 female (46% and 1619 male (54% out of which 6.3% were diabetic, 21.6% were smoker, and 15% had positive familial heart disease history. 61% had total cholesterol level > 200 mg/dL, 32% triglyceride > 200 mg/dl, 47.5% LDL-c > 130 mg/dl, 5.4% HDL-c 140 mmHg, 9.1% diastolic blood pressure > 90 mmHg and 87% of them were physically inactive. Conclusion Clinical and Para-clinical data indicated that Iranian adult population are of a high level of CAD risk factors, which may require urgent decision making to address national control measures regarding CAD.

Gender differences in metabolic risk factor prevalence in a South African student population.

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Carine; Essop, M Faadiel

2009-01-01

We determined selected risk factors for the metabolic syndrome and assessed the metabolic risk status (using IDF criteria) of third-year physiology students at Stellenbosch University (88 males and 178 females). Outcome measures included anthropometry [body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio], blood pressure (BP), resting pulse rate, and fasting blood glucose, total cholesterol and triglyceride levels. In addition, students completed a lifestyle questionnaire. A number of gender-based differences were found, with male students displaying a greater incidence of risk factors for the metabolic syndrome: 6% of males versus 3% of females displayed a cluster of three risk factors. Twenty-five per cent of female students (but only 14% of males) exhibited waist circumferences above the accepted range, which was positively correlated, for males and females, with both systolic and diastolic BP, and in females only, also with total cholesterol levels. Male students on average exercised more than their female counterparts, but also exhibited poorer eating habits. Average blood triglyceride levels for both male and female students exceeded the accepted threshold (1.85 +/- 1.62 mmol/l and 2.15 +/- 1.79 mmol/l, respectively). We concluded that metabolic risk factors were evident in a much younger population than commonly expected. Moreover, the gender-specific differences observed may impact on future risk assessment and preventative measures adopted.

Vertigo and dizziness in adolescents: Risk factors and their population attributable risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Filipp M Filippopulos

Full Text Available To assess potential risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and to evaluate their variability by different vertigo types. The role of possible risk factors for vertigo and dizziness in adolescents and their population relevance needs to be addressed in order to design preventive strategies.The study population consisted of 1482 school-children between the age of 12 and 19 years, who were instructed to fill out a questionnaire on different vertigo types and related potential risk factors. The questionnaire specifically asked for any vertigo, spinning vertigo, swaying vertigo, orthostatic dizziness, and unspecified dizziness. Further a wide range of potential risk factors were addressed including gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration, migraine, coffee and alcohol consumption, physical activity and smoking.Gender, stress, muscular pain in the neck and shoulder region, sleep duration and migraine were identified as independent risk factors following mutual adjustment: The relative risk was 1.17 [1.10-1.25] for female sex, 1.07 [1.02-1.13] for stress, 1.24 [1.17-1.32] for muscular pain, and 1.09 [1.03-1.14] for migraine. The population attributable risk explained by these risk factors was 26%, with muscular pain, stress, and migraine accounting for 11%, 4%, and 3% respectively.Several established risk factors in adults were also identified in adolescents. Risk factors amenable to prevention accounted for 17% of the total population risk. Therefore, interventions targeting these risk factors may be warranted.

Quantifying introgression risk with realistic population genetics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Atiyo; Meirmans, Patrick G; Haccou, Patsy

2012-12-07

Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. This can have severe consequences, such as extinction of endemic species, or the spread of transgenes. Quantification of the risk of introgression is an important component of genetically modified crop regulation. Most theoretical introgression studies aimed at such quantification disregard one or more of the most important factors concerning introgression: realistic genetical mechanisms, repeated invasions and stochasticity. In addition, the use of linkage as a risk mitigation strategy has not been studied properly yet with genetic introgression models. Current genetic introgression studies fail to take repeated invasions and demographic stochasticity into account properly, and use incorrect measures of introgression risk that can be manipulated by arbitrary choices. In this study, we present proper methods for risk quantification that overcome these difficulties. We generalize a probabilistic risk measure, the so-called hazard rate of introgression, for application to introgression models with complex genetics and small natural population sizes. We illustrate the method by studying the effects of linkage and recombination on transgene introgression risk at different population sizes.

The difference between alternative averages

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James Vaupel

2012-09-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND Demographers have long been interested in how compositional change, e.g., change in age structure, affects population averages. OBJECTIVE We want to deepen understanding of how compositional change affects population averages. RESULTS The difference between two averages of a variable, calculated using alternative weighting functions, equals the covariance between the variable and the ratio of the weighting functions, divided by the average of the ratio. We compare weighted and unweighted averages and also provide examples of use of the relationship in analyses of fertility and mortality. COMMENTS Other uses of covariances in formal demography are worth exploring.

Estimation of population dose and risk to holding assistants from veterinary X-ray examination in Japan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashizume, Tadashi; Suganuma, Tunenori; Shida, Takuo

1989-01-01

For the estimation of the population doses and risks of stochastic effects to assistants who hold animals during veterinary X-ray examination, a random survey of hospitals and clinics was carried out concerning age distribution of such assistants by groups of facilities. The average organ and tissue dose per examination was evaluated from the experimental data using mean technical factors such as X-ray tube voltage, tube current and field size based on the results of a nationwide survey. The population doses to the assistants were calculated to be about 14 nSv per person per year for the genetically significant dose, 3.5 nSv per person per year for per caput mean marrow dose, 3.3 nSv for the leukemia significant dose and 4.5 nSv for the malignant significant dose, respectively. The total risk of stochastic effects to the Japanese population from holding assistants was estimated using population data and it was estimated to be less than one person per year, but the cancer risks to a number of the assistants were estimated to be more than 4 x 10 -5 . (author)

An economic assessment of population health risk in region

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Nina Vladimirovna Zaytseva

2012-06-01

Full Text Available This paper proposes a method of economic assessment of population health risk as a tool of life qualitymanagement and qualityof labor resources in the region (as factors of a region’s economic security. The technique is based on the cost of reducing the period of disability in the implementation of population health risk and takes into account the effects of risk prevention on levels of the budgetary system of the Russian Federation. The method intends to support making decisions on planning measures to reduce population health risk at the level of regions, territories and separate objects to assess their cost-performance, optimization of investment and operating costs to reduce the population health risk and sustainable development of the territory

[Assessment of non-carcinogenic risk for the health of the child population under the consumption of drinking water].

Science.gov (United States)

Stepanova, N V; Valeeva, E R; Fomina, S F; Ziyatdinova, A I

In the article there are given results of the evaluation of non-carcinogenic risks for the health of the child population residing in different areas (districts) of the city of Kazan with the aim of the subsequent comprehensive assessment of the pollutants in drinking water. Assessment of the risk for the human health was performed correspondingly to with the P 2.1.10.1920-04 for oral route of exposure in accordance to the chemical composition of drinking water with account for the standard and regional factors of the exposure. The results of the risk assessment under the consumption of drinking tap water by the child population with localized place of residence permit to reveal areas with a high level of health risk in the city. The screening assessment of carcinogenic risk due to the consumption of chemicals with drinking water revealed differences in regional and standard values of the exposure factors. This affects both on the value of the chronic average daily intake of chemical contaminants in drinking water and the level of risk under the consumption of drinking water by the child population.

Population information on major technological risks and specially on nuclear risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Choudens, H.

1992-01-01

Following Chernobyl accident which has revealed in France a strong need for information on technological risks among population and a lack in its organization, the Mayor of Grenoble City who was also at this time, Environment Minister in French Government had initiated in lsere Region an important operation of consideration of action, which has to been undertaken to correct theses lacks. Among ten actions retained one of them was the creation of an Association for Information of the public for Prevention of major risks. This Association has first initiated a consultation on the perception by the population of the different major risks (Industrial and Naturals) in view of the results of this consultation, Medical Professions were the first concerned and a publication 'Medicine and Nuclear risk' has been elaborated and distributed to all doctors of the Region. A Memento on Nuclear risk as then been written and largely distributed in the region, especially in the medias. A booklet on nuclear risk and behavior in case of nuclear accident has then been realized and distributed to all people around Electronuclear Reactors of the Region and to children in the schools. In complement, public meetings have been organized in these sectors to inform, and discuss with the population. (author)

A population's higher-risk sexual behaviour is associated with its average sexual behaviour—An ecological analysis of subpopulations in Ethiopia, Kenya, South Africa, Uganda and the United States

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Chris R. Kenyon

2016-06-01

Conclusions: Our results suggest that sexual behaviours vary coherently between different populations. As such, sexually transmitted infection control efforts would benefit from including both targeted campaigns focusing on the HRB and population-strategies that seek to address factors responsible for high mean risk behaviour.

Evaluation of Average Life Expectancy of Exposed Individuals and their offspring: Population Genetic Approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Telnov, V. I.; Sotnik, N. V.

2004-01-01

Average life expectancy (ALE) is a significant integrating indicator of the population health. It can be affected by many factors such as radiation and hereditary ones. A population-genetic analysis of the average life expectancy (ALE) was performed for nuclear workers at the Mayak Production. Association exposed to external and internal radiation over a wide dose range and their offspring. A methodical approach was proposed to determine ALE for individuals with different genotypes and estimate ALE in the population based on genotype distribution. The analysis of a number of genetic markers revealed significant changes in the age-specific pattern of the Hp types in workers over 60 years. Such changes were caused by both radiation and non-radiation (cardiovascular pathology) factors. In the first case ALE decreased as Hp 1-1 > Hp 2-2> Hp2-1 (radiation). In the second case, it decreased as Hp 1-1> Hp-2-1> Hp2-2 (non-radiation). analysis of genetic markers in the workers offspring indicated significant shifts in distribution of the Hp types, especially an increase in the proportion of Hp 2-2 at doses from external γ-rays over 200 cGy to parents by the time of conception. Based on the non-radiation genotype differences in ALE in this group of offspring, the preliminary calculation of ALE was carried out, which indicated its reduction by 0.52 years in comparison with the control. (Author) 21 refs

Association between zolpidem use and glaucoma risk: a Taiwanese population-based case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Ho, Yi-Hao; Chang, Yue-Cune; Huang, Wei-Cheng; Chen, Hsin-Yi; Lin, Che-Chen; Sung, Fung-Chang

2015-01-01

To date, the relationship between zolpidem use and subsequent risk of glaucoma in a Taiwanese population has not been assessed. We used data from the National Health Insurance system to investigate whether zolpidem use was related to glaucoma risk. A 1:4 matched case-control study was conducted. The cases were patients newly diagnosed with glaucoma from 2001 to 2010. The controls were randomly selected non-glaucoma subjects matched by sex and age (± 5 years). Zolpidem exposure and/or the average dosage of zolpidem used (mg/year) were evaluated. Medical comorbidities were considered as confounding factors. Multiple logistic regression models were used to evaluate the potential risk of zolpidem exposure on glaucoma with/without adjustment for the effects of confounding variables. The exposure rate of zolpidem use in the glaucoma group was significantly higher than that of the control group (2.8% vs. 2.0%, P zolpidem use vs. those without was 1.19 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.02-1.38). Compared to non-zolpidem users, zolpidem users with an average dose of more than 200 mg/year had significantly increased risk of glaucoma (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.03-1.68). This study suggests that the use of zolpidem might increase the risk of subsequent glaucoma. Further confirmatory studies are recommended to clarify this important issue.

Selected Cardiovascular Risk Markers in Vegetarians and Subjects of General Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Valachovičová, Martina; Príbojová, Jana; Urbánek, Vladimír; Bírošová, Lucia

2017-12-01

Besides genetic factors there are environmental effects including nutritional habits which can influence the risk of age-related diseases. The aim of the study was to assess the age dependence of selected cardiovascular risk markers in two groups of subjects with different nutritional pattern. In 470 long-term vegetarians and 478 subjects of general population the following indicators were measured: total cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, triacylglycerol, glucose, insulin concentrations, LDL-cholesterol, atherogenic index and insulin resistance IR(HOMA) were also calculated in studied subjects. Obtained data were evaluated according to age decades. Vegetarian vs. non-vegetarian concentrations of total cholesterol, LDL-cholesterol, insulin, and values of atherogenic index and IR(HOMA) were significantly reduced in all age decades. Vegetarian vs. non-vegetarian triacalglycerol concentrations were significantly reduced from 4th–7th decade. Vegetarian average decade values of all lipid parameters were in reference range. In non-vegetarian group, the risk average values of total cholesterol (>5.2 mmol/l) were found from 5th–7th decade, LDL-cholesterol (>3.3 mmol/l) in 7th decade and atherogenic index (>4) in 6th–7th decade. In vegetarians vs. non-vegetarians were noted the average decade values for total cholesterol ranging from 4.01–4.59 vs. 4.48–5.67 mmol/l, for triacylglycerols 1.00–1.33 vs. 1.13–1.74 mmol/l, for LDL-cholesterol 2.03–2.58 vs. 2.43–3.49 mmol/l, for atherogenic index 2.72–3.31 vs. 3.05–4.21 and for IR(HOMA) 0.99–1.15 vs. 1.15–1.84. Our data show significantly reduced mean age decade values of lipid and non-lipid cardiovascular risk markers in all adult vegetarians. Smaller changes of markers between decades compared to non-vegetarians document a protective effect of vegetarian nutrition in prevention of cardiovascular disease. Copyright© by the National Institute of Public Health, Prague 2017

Risk and Aging Vascular in a city population

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Enrique Ruiz Mori

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Objetive: Cardiovascular diseases that every year have more prevalence in the country, are the product of risky factors, many of them modifiable and preventable. The objective of the present study has been to know and analyze the factors of cardiovascular risk and determine the vascular age in the population of Lima. Material and methods: A descriptive cross sectional study, carried out in March 2016, in the southern, northern and eastern cones of Metropolitan Lima, in people older than 30 and younger than 75 years old. The survey structured for the study collected the following variables: gender, age, arterial hypertension, smoking, diabetes, physical activity and type of diet. Blood presure, weight and tall were recorded. Results: In total, 485 participants were included, 197 men and 288 women. The age was 49,5± 9,9 years old. The more frequent risky factor was the unhealthy diet (47,6%, followed by sedentary lifestyle (42,5%. Arterial hypertension was observed in 20,8%, being more frequent in men. 85.2% did not smoke and overweight was found in 47.2%, being its frequency higher in women. The low risk was determined in 60,4% and it was predominant in women, while higher risk was 18.6% in men. The average cardiovascular age was higher in 1,4 years compared to the chronological age beign more marked in men, in whom the difference was 5,8 years between 50 and 59 years old. Conclusions: The more frecuente cardiovascular risk has been unhealthy diet followed by sedentary lifestyle. The high risk was 18,6% predominating in

Estimating and mapping the population at risk of sleeping sickness.

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Pere P Simarro

Full Text Available Human African trypanosomiasis (HAT, also known as sleeping sickness, persists as a public health problem in several sub-Saharan countries. Evidence-based, spatially explicit estimates of population at risk are needed to inform planning and implementation of field interventions, monitor disease trends, raise awareness and support advocacy. Comprehensive, geo-referenced epidemiological records from HAT-affected countries were combined with human population layers to map five categories of risk, ranging from "very high" to "very low," and to estimate the corresponding at-risk population.Approximately 70 million people distributed over a surface of 1.55 million km(2 are estimated to be at different levels of risk of contracting HAT. Trypanosoma brucei gambiense accounts for 82.2% of the population at risk, the remaining 17.8% being at risk of infection from T. b. rhodesiense. Twenty-one million people live in areas classified as moderate to very high risk, where more than 1 HAT case per 10,000 inhabitants per annum is reported.Updated estimates of the population at risk of sleeping sickness were made, based on quantitative information on the reported cases and the geographic distribution of human population. Due to substantial methodological differences, it is not possible to make direct comparisons with previous figures for at-risk population. By contrast, it will be possible to explore trends in the future. The presented maps of different HAT risk levels will help to develop site-specific strategies for control and surveillance, and to monitor progress achieved by ongoing efforts aimed at the elimination of sleeping sickness.

A new approach on seismic mortality estimations based on average population density

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Zhu, Xiaoxin; Sun, Baiqing; Jin, Zhanyong

2016-12-01

This study examines a new methodology to predict the final seismic mortality from earthquakes in China. Most studies established the association between mortality estimation and seismic intensity without considering the population density. In China, however, the data are not always available, especially when it comes to the very urgent relief situation in the disaster. And the population density varies greatly from region to region. This motivates the development of empirical models that use historical death data to provide the path to analyze the death tolls for earthquakes. The present paper employs the average population density to predict the final death tolls in earthquakes using a case-based reasoning model from realistic perspective. To validate the forecasting results, historical data from 18 large-scale earthquakes occurred in China are used to estimate the seismic morality of each case. And a typical earthquake case occurred in the northwest of Sichuan Province is employed to demonstrate the estimation of final death toll. The strength of this paper is that it provides scientific methods with overall forecast errors lower than 20 %, and opens the door for conducting final death forecasts with a qualitative and quantitative approach. Limitations and future research are also analyzed and discussed in the conclusion.

[Prevalence survey of cardiovascular risk factors in the general population in St. Louis (Senegal)].

Science.gov (United States)

Pessinaba, S; Mbaye, A; Yabéta, G A D; Harouna, H; Sib, A E; Kane, A D; Bodian, M; Ndiaye, M B; Mbaye-Ndour, M; Niang, K; Diagne-Sow, D; Diack, B; Kane, M; Diao, M; Mathieu, J-B S; Kane, A

2013-08-01

Cardiovascular diseases are becoming with their risk factors a real health problem in Africa. The objectives of this study were to assess the prevalence of risk factors for cardiovascular diseases in the general population in Saint-Louis, Senegal. This is a cross-sectional, descriptive and analytical made in May 2010, in the Senegalese aged 15, residing in the city of Saint-Louis, Senegal. A systematic random sampling and stratified cluster has been achieved. Cardiovascular risk factors for research were: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidemia, smoking, obesity, physical inactivity and metabolic syndrome. The survey involved 1424 individuals with 983 women (69%). The average age was 43.4±17.8years. The prevalence of risk factors was: hypertension (46%), diabetes (10.4%), total cholesterol (36.3%), hyperLDLcholesterol (20.6%), obesity (body mass index≥30kg/m(2)) (23%), abdominal obesity (48.7% according to International Diabetes Federation and 33.2% according to National Cholesterol Education Program) physical inactivity (64.7%), smoking (5.8%) and metabolic syndrome (15.7%). There was predominance in women of risk factors except for smoking and diabetes. The overall cardiovascular risk was high in 24.9% according to the Framingham model, 28.8% (European Society of Hypertension) and 6.1% (SCORE). This survey found a high prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors in a general population in Senegal, predominant in women. This should lead to better develop a strategy to prevent cardiovascular diseases. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Spatiotemporal patterns of population distribution as crucial element for risk management

Science.gov (United States)

Gokesch, Karin; Promper, Catrin; van Westen, Cees J.; Glade, Thomas

2014-05-01

The spatiotemporal distribution and presence of the population in a certain area is a crucial element within natural hazard risk management, especially in the case of rapid onset hazard events and emergency management. When fast onset hazards such as earthquakes, flash floods or industrial accidents occur, people may not have adequate time for evacuation and the emergency management requires a fast response and reaction. Therefore, information on detailed distribution of people affected by a certain hazard is important for a fast assessment of the situation including the number and the type of people (distinguishing between elderly or handicapped people, children, working population etc.) affected. This study thus aims at analyzing population distribution on an hourly basis for different days e.g. workday or holiday. The applied method combines the basic assessment of population distribution in a given area with specific location-related patterns of distribution-changes over time. The calculations are based on detailed information regarding the expected presence of certain groups of people, e.g. school children, working or elderly people, which all show different patterns of movement over certain time periods. The study area is the city of Waidhofen /Ybbs located in the Alpine foreland in the Southwest of Lower Austria. This city serves as a regional center providing basic infrastructure, shops and schools for the surrounding countryside. Therefore a lot of small and medium businesses are located in this area showing a rather high variation of population present at different times of the day. The available building footprint information was classified with respect to building type and occupancy type, which was used to estimate the expected residents within the buildings, based on the floorspace of the buildings and the average floorspace per person. Additional information on the distribution and the average duration of stay of the people in these buildings was

Status of Baltic grey seals: Population assessment and extinction risk

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Karin C Harding

2007-01-01

Full Text Available The grey seal (Halichoerus grypus population in the Baltic Sea is recovering after a century of bounty hunting and 3 decades of low fertility rates caused by environmental pollution. A conservative estimate of the population size in 2003 was 19,400 animals, and available data suggest an annual rate of increase of 7.5% since 1990. The growing population has led to increased interactions with the fishery, and demands are being raised for the re-introduction of the hunt. We provide a demographic analysis and a risk assessment of the population, and make recommendations on how to decrease the risk of over exploitation. Although hunting increases the risk of quasi-extinction, the risk can be significantly reduced by the choice of a cautious hunting regime. The least hazardous regimes allow no hunting below a ‘security level’ in population size. Obviously, to implement such a hunting regime detailed knowledge of the population size and growth rate is required. It is not possible to estimate “true” risks for quasi-extinction, but we used an approach where the relative difference for different scenarios can be compared. With a security level at 5,000 females, the population quasi-extinction risk increases 50 fold at an annual hunt of 500 females compared with a scenario with no hunting. The risk of quasi-extinction is very sensitive to declines in the mean growth rate and to increased variance in growth rate. The variance in the population estimates over the last 14 years imply that it would take 9 years to detect a declinefrom 1.075 to 1.027 in the rate of population increase. We also show how the age composition of killed animals influences the impact of the hunt. The overall recommendation is that hunting should be kept to a minimum, carefully documented and accompanied by close population monitoring.

Estimating the population size and colony boundary of subterranean termites by using the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability.

Science.gov (United States)

Su, Nan-Yao; Lee, Sang-Hee

2008-04-01

Marked termites were released in a linear-connected foraging arena, and the spatial heterogeneity of their capture probabilities was averaged for both directions at distance r from release point to obtain a symmetrical distribution, from which the density function of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) was derived. We hypothesized that as marked termites move into the population and given sufficient time, the directionally averaged capture probability may reach an equilibrium P(e) over the distance r and thus satisfy the equal mixing assumption of the mark-recapture protocol. The equilibrium capture probability P(e) was used to estimate the population size N. The hypothesis was tested in a 50-m extended foraging arena to simulate the distance factor of field colonies of subterranean termites. Over the 42-d test period, the density functions of directionally averaged capture probability P(x) exhibited four phases: exponential decline phase, linear decline phase, equilibrium phase, and postequilibrium phase. The equilibrium capture probability P(e), derived as the intercept of the linear regression during the equilibrium phase, correctly projected N estimates that were not significantly different from the known number of workers in the arena. Because the area beneath the probability density function is a constant (50% in this study), preequilibrium regression parameters and P(e) were used to estimate the population boundary distance 1, which is the distance between the release point and the boundary beyond which the population is absent.

Population-Attributable Risk Percentages for Racialized Risk Environments

Science.gov (United States)

Arriola, Kimberly Jacob; Haardörfer, Regine; McBride, Colleen M.

2016-01-01

Research about relationships between place characteristics and racial/ethnic inequities in health has largely ignored conceptual advances about race and place within the discipline of geography. Research has also almost exclusively quantified these relationships using effect estimates (e.g., odds ratios), statistics that fail to adequately capture the full impact of place characteristics on inequities and thus undermine our ability to translate research into action. We draw on geography to further develop the concept of “racialized risk environments,” and we argue for the routine calculation of race/ethnicity-specific population-attributable risk percentages. PMID:27552263

Suicide Risk Screening Tools and the Youth Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Patterson, Sharon

2016-08-01

The use of suicide risk screening tools is a critical component of a comprehensive approach to suicide risk assessment. Since nurses frequently spend more time with patients than any other healthcare professional, they are in key positions to detect and prevent suicidal behavior in youth. To inform nurses about suicide risk screening tools for the youth population. Suicide risk screening tools are research-based standardized instruments that are used to identify people who may be at risk for suicide. A literature search was performed using the Athabasca University Library Resource, the databases of the Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, ScienceDirect, and Google Scholar. Nurses are cautioned to utilize suicide risk screening tools as only part of the suicide risk assessment in youth populations and avoid the danger of relying on tools that may result in a blind application of evidence to the detriment of clinical experience and judgement. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT): study protocol for a predictive algorithm assessing dementia risk in the community.

Science.gov (United States)

Fisher, Stacey; Hsu, Amy; Mojaverian, Nassim; Taljaard, Monica; Huyer, Gregory; Manuel, Douglas G; Tanuseputro, Peter

2017-10-24

The burden of disease from dementia is a growing global concern as incidence increases dramatically with age, and average life expectancy has been increasing around the world. Planning for an ageing population requires reliable projections of dementia prevalence; however, existing population projections are simple and have poor predictive accuracy. The Dementia Population Risk Tool (DemPoRT) will predict incidence of dementia in the population setting using multivariable modelling techniques and will be used to project dementia prevalence. The derivation cohort will consist of elderly Ontario respondents of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS) (2001, 2003, 2005 and 2007; 18 764 males and 25 288 females). Prespecified predictors include sociodemographic, general health, behavioural, functional and health condition variables. Incident dementia will be identified through individual linkage of survey respondents to population-level administrative healthcare databases (1797 and 3281 events, and 117 795 and 166 573 person-years of follow-up, for males and females, respectively, until 31 March 2014). Using time of first dementia capture as the primary outcome and death as a competing risk, sex-specific proportional hazards regression models will be estimated. The 2008/2009 CCHS survey will be used for validation (approximately 4600 males and 6300 females). Overall calibration and discrimination will be assessed as well as calibration within predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policy makers. Research ethics approval has been granted by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. DemPoRT results will be submitted for publication in peer-review journals and presented at scientific meetings. The algorithm will be assessable online for both population and individual uses. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03155815, pre-results. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No

Assessing uncertainty and risk in exploited marine populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fogarty, M.J.; Mayo, R.K.; O'Brien, L.; Serchuk, F.M.; Rosenberg, A.A.

1996-01-01

The assessment and management of exploited fish and invertebrate populations is subject to several types of uncertainty. This uncertainty translates into risk to the population in the development and implementation of fishery management advice. Here, we define risk as the probability that exploitation rates will exceed a threshold level where long term sustainability of the stock is threatened. We distinguish among several sources of error or uncertainty due to (a) stochasticity in demographic rates and processes, particularly in survival rates during the early fife stages; (b) measurement error resulting from sampling variation in the determination of population parameters or in model estimation; and (c) the lack of complete information on population and ecosystem dynamics. The first represents a form of aleatory uncertainty while the latter two factors represent forms of epistemic uncertainty. To illustrate these points, we evaluate the recent status of the Georges Bank cod stock in a risk assessment framework. Short term stochastic projections are made accounting for uncertainty in population size and for random variability in the number of young surviving to enter the fishery. We show that recent declines in this cod stock can be attributed to exploitation rates that have substantially exceeded sustainable levels

Visualizing the uncertainty in the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLeod, D A; Morse, A P

2014-12-02

Around $1.6 billion per year is spent financing anti-malaria initiatives, and though malaria morbidity is falling, the impact of annual epidemics remains significant. Whilst malaria risk may increase with climate change, projections are highly uncertain and to sidestep this intractable uncertainty, adaptation efforts should improve societal ability to anticipate and mitigate individual events. Anticipation of climate-related events is made possible by seasonal climate forecasting, from which warnings of anomalous seasonal average temperature and rainfall, months in advance are possible. Seasonal climate hindcasts have been used to drive climate-based models for malaria, showing significant skill for observed malaria incidence. However, the relationship between seasonal average climate and malaria risk remains unquantified. Here we explore this relationship, using a dynamic weather-driven malaria model. We also quantify key uncertainty in the malaria model, by introducing variability in one of the first order uncertainties in model formulation. Results are visualized as location-specific impact surfaces: easily integrated with ensemble seasonal climate forecasts, and intuitively communicating quantified uncertainty. Methods are demonstrated for two epidemic regions, and are not limited to malaria modeling; the visualization method could be applied to any climate impact.

Association between metabolic syndrome and 10-year risk of developing cardiovascular disease in a Nigerian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Oguoma, Victor M; Nwose, Ezekiel U; Skinner, Timothy C; Richards, Ross S; Digban, Kester A; Onyia, Innocent C

2016-09-01

Prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and consequential cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are on the increase in Nigeria. The study aimed to identify the prevalence of 10-year CVD risk in a Nigerian population and assess its relationship with different indices of MetS. A cross-sectional study was carried out on apparently healthy persons aged 18 years of age or older. Ten-year risk was calculated using the ATPIII/Framingham criteria. Subjects with risk score 20% at high risk of developing CVD in 10 years. MetS was defined based on the Joint Scientific Statement on Harmonizing the MetS. Of the 211 subjects, mean age was 51.3±17.3 years. Average risk of developing CVD in the next 10 years was 3.7±5.3%. Prevalence of low, moderate and high risk of developing CVD among study participants was 86.3% (95% CI 82.0-91.3%), 11.8% (95% CI 6.9-16.1%) and 1.9% (95% CI 0.0-3.8%), respectively. Prevalence of MetS was 26.7% (95% CI 21.0-33.3%). There was poor agreement between MetS and the CVD risk scores (kappa=0.209, p=0.001) CONCLUSIONS: The results showed that complementary use of MetS and CVD risk score is imperative, as there is indication of risk in individuals without MetS. Also a large proportion of the study population requires lifestyle intervention. These findings provide the evidence necessary to tailor public health interventions in this population, especially towards younger age groups. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Royal Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

RADON AND CARCINOGENIC RISK IN MOSCOW

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S. M. Golovanev

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Objective: comparative evaluation of carcinogenic risk inMoscowfrom radon in indoor and atmospheric pollutants.Materials and methods: the lung cancer incidence in Moscow; radiation-hygienic passport of the territory; .U.S. EPA estimated average age at all and radon induced deaths, years of life lost; Report of UNSCEAR 2006 and WHO handbook on indoor radon, 2009. Trend analysis of incidence; evaluation of the excess relative risk; assessment of ratio radon-induced population risk and published values оf total population carcinogenic risk from chemical carcinogens.Results: it is shown that the 304 cases of lung cancer per year (1. 85 10-3 on average from 2006 to 2011 (21280diseases for 70 years in addition to background level induced by radon; the differences in average trends of all lungcancer incidence in the districts can exceed 25%.Conclusion. The potential of risk reduction by measures of mitigation radon concentration exceeds 5 times the cost efficiency to reduce emissions from vehicles and can reduce cancer incidence, on average 236 cases per year; population risk 16520 cases over 70 years or save not less than 2832 person-years of life per year. The annual effect of reducing losses from not-survival of 12 years as a result of radon-induced lung cancer deaths exceeds 14160000 dollars. The evaluating of the carcinogenic risk from radon in accordance with the definition of population risk increases the predictive evaluation of the effectiveness of preventive measures more than twice.

Radiation exposure and radiation risk of the population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacobi, W.; Paretzke, H.G.; Ehling, U.H.

1981-02-01

The major scientifically founded results concerning the assessment of the radiation exposure and the analysis and evaluation of the radiationhazards for the population, particularly in the range of low doses, are presented. As to the risk analysis special attention is paid to the rays with low ionization density (X-, γ-, β- and electronrays). Contents: 1) Detailed survey of the results and conclusions; 2) Data on the radiation load of the population; 3) Results to epidemiological questioning on the risk of cancer; 4) Genetical radiation hazards of the population. For quantification purposes of the risk of cancer by γ-radiation the observations with the a-bomb survivors in Japan are taken as a basis, as the available dosimetrical data have to be revised. Appendices: 1) German translation of the UNSCEAR-Report (1977); 2) BEIR-Report (1980); 3) Comments from the SSK on the comparability of the risks of natural-artificial radiation exposure; 4) Comments from the SSK on the importance of synergistical influences for the radiation protection (23.9.1977). (HP) [de

Carcinogenic and neurotoxic risks of acrylamide consumed through caffeinated beverages among the lebanese population.

Science.gov (United States)

El-Zakhem Naous, Ghada; Merhi, Areej; Abboud, Martine I; Mroueh, Mohamad; Taleb, Robin I

2018-06-06

The present study aims to quantify acrylamide in caffeinated beverages including American coffee, Lebanese coffee, espresso, instant coffee and hot chocolate, and to determine their carcinogenic and neurotoxic risks. A survey was carried for this purpose whereby 78% of the Lebanese population was found to consume at least one type of caffeinated beverages. Gas Chromatography Mass Spectrometry analysis revealed that the average acrylamide level in caffeinated beverages is 29,176 μg/kg sample. The daily consumption of acrylamide from Lebanese coffee (10.9 μg/kg-bw/day), hot chocolate (1.2 μg/kg-bw/day) and Espresso (7.4 μg/kg-bw/day) was found to be higher than the risk intake for carcinogenicity and neurotoxicity as set by World Health Organization (WHO; 0.3-2 μg/kg-bw/day) at both the mean (average consumers) and high (high consumers) dietary exposures. On the other hand, American coffee (0.37 μg/kg-bw/day) was shown to pose no carcinogenic or neurotoxic risks among the Lebanese community for consumers with a mean dietary exposure. The study shows alarming results that call for regulating the caffeinated product industry by setting legislations and standard protocols for product preparation in order to limit the acrylamide content and protect consumers. In order to avoid carcinogenic and neurotoxic risks, we propose that WHO/FAO set acrylamide levels in caffeinated beverages to 7000 μg acrylamide/kg sample, a value which is 4-folds lower than the average acrylamide levels of 29,176 μg/kg sample found in caffeinated beverages sold in the Lebanese market. Alternatively, consumers of caffeinated products, especially Lebanese coffee and espresso, would have to lower their daily consumption to 0.3-0.4 cups/day. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Projection of radiation-induced cancer risks across time and populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muirhead, C.R.

1991-01-01

Various methods can be used to project the risks of radiation-induced cancer estimated in cohort studies beyond the period of follow-up and to other populations. The choice of risk projection model is reviewed based on data from studies such as those of the Japanese atomic bomb survivors and UK ankylosing spondylitis patients given X ray therapy. Risk estimates applicable to a UK population are calculated on the basis of various models, including those developed by the BEIR V Committee. It is emphasised that the continued follow-up of populations such as the Japanese atomic bomb survivors is of great importance in estimating lifetime risks. (author)

Population-based absolute risk estimation with survey data

Science.gov (United States)

Kovalchik, Stephanie A.; Pfeiffer, Ruth M.

2013-01-01

Absolute risk is the probability that a cause-specific event occurs in a given time interval in the presence of competing events. We present methods to estimate population-based absolute risk from a complex survey cohort that can accommodate multiple exposure-specific competing risks. The hazard function for each event type consists of an individualized relative risk multiplied by a baseline hazard function, which is modeled nonparametrically or parametrically with a piecewise exponential model. An influence method is used to derive a Taylor-linearized variance estimate for the absolute risk estimates. We introduce novel measures of the cause-specific influences that can guide modeling choices for the competing event components of the model. To illustrate our methodology, we build and validate cause-specific absolute risk models for cardiovascular and cancer deaths using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Our applications demonstrate the usefulness of survey-based risk prediction models for predicting health outcomes and quantifying the potential impact of disease prevention programs at the population level. PMID:23686614

Natriuretic peptides: prediction of cardiovascular disease in the general population and high risk populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hildebrandt, Per

2009-01-01

(General Practitioner) setting as in the acute setting. Supporting this use is a very strong prognostic value of the natriuretic peptides. This has been shown in as well heart failure as acute coronary syndromes, but also in the general population and in high-risk groups as patients with diabetes......, hypertension and coronary artery disease. This has of course raised interest for the use of the natriuretic peptides as a risk marker and for screening for heart failure with reduced systolic function in these populations. In symptomatic persons and in high risk populations, the natriuretic peptides have...... demonstrated a high sensitivity for ruling out the disease, if the right decision limits are choosen. Thus the number of normal echocardiographies can be reduced. More recently, the use in screening asymptomatic persons for left ventricular systolic dysfunction has gained more interest. In the unselected...

Colorectal cancer screening of high-risk populations: A national survey of physicians

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

White Pascale M

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The incidence of colorectal cancer can be decreased by appropriate use of screening modalities. Patients with a family history of colon cancer and of African-American ethnicity are known to be at higher risk of developing colorectal cancer. We aimed to determine if there is a lack of physician knowledge for colorectal cancer screening guidelines based on family history and ethnicity. Between February and April 2009 an anonymous web-based survey was administered to a random sample selected from a national list of 25,000 internists, family physicians and gastroenterologists. A stratified sampling strategy was used to include practitioners from states with high as well as low CRC incidence. All data analyses were performed following data collection in 2009. Results The average knowledge score was 37 ± 18% among the 512 respondents. Gastroenterologists averaged higher scores compared to internists, and family physicians, p = 0.001. Only 28% of physicians correctly identified the screening initiation point for African-Americans while only 12% of physicians correctly identified the screening initiation point and interval for a patient with a family history of CRC. The most commonly cited barriers to referring high-risk patients for CRC screening were "patient refusal" and "lack of insurance reimbursement." Conclusions There is a lack of knowledge amongst physicians of the screening guidelines for high-risk populations, based on family history and ethnicity. Educational programs to improve physician knowledge and to reduce perceived barriers to CRC screening are warranted to address health disparities in colorectal cancer.

Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B

2014-01-01

Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial...... 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches...... and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established...

Risk-informed Analytical Approaches to Concentration Averaging for the Purpose of Waste Classification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Esh, D.W.; Pinkston, K.E.; Barr, C.S.; Bradford, A.H.; Ridge, A.Ch.

2009-01-01

Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) staff has developed a concentration averaging approach and guidance for the review of Department of Energy (DOE) non-HLW determinations. Although the approach was focused on this specific application, concentration averaging is generally applicable to waste classification and thus has implications for waste management decisions as discussed in more detail in this paper. In the United States, radioactive waste has historically been classified into various categories for the purpose of ensuring that the disposal system selected is commensurate with the hazard of the waste such that public health and safety will be protected. However, the risk from the near-surface disposal of radioactive waste is not solely a function of waste concentration but is also a function of the volume (quantity) of waste and its accessibility. A risk-informed approach to waste classification for near-surface disposal of low-level waste would consider the specific characteristics of the waste, the quantity of material, and the disposal system features that limit accessibility to the waste. NRC staff has developed example analytical approaches to estimate waste concentration, and therefore waste classification, for waste disposed in facilities or with configurations that were not anticipated when the regulation for the disposal of commercial low-level waste (i.e. 10 CFR Part 61) was developed. (authors)

Cerebral Perfusion and the Risk of Dementia: A Population-Based Study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolters, Frank J; Zonneveld, Hazel I; Hofman, Albert; van der Lugt, Aad; Koudstaal, Peter J; Vernooij, Meike W; Ikram, M Arfan

2017-08-22

Cerebral hypoperfusion has previously been associated with mild cognitive impairment and dementia in various cross-sectional studies, but whether hypoperfusion precedes neurodegeneration is unknown. We prospectively determined the association of cerebral perfusion with subsequent cognitive decline and development of dementia. Between 2005 and 2012, we measured cerebral blood flow by 2-dimensional phase-contrast magnetic resonance imaging in participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study without dementia. We determined the association of cerebral perfusion (mL/100mL/min) with risk of dementia (until 2015) using a Cox model, adjusting for age, sex, demographics, cardiovascular risk factors, and apolipoprotein E genotype. We repeated analyses for Alzheimer disease and accounting for stroke. We used linear regression to determine change in cognitive performance during 2 consecutive examination rounds in relation to perfusion. Finally, we investigated whether associations were modified by baseline severity of white matter hyperintensities. Of 4759 participants (median age 61.3 years, 55.2% women) with a median follow-up of 6.9 years, 123 participants developed dementia (97 Alzheimer disease). Lower cerebral perfusion was associated with higher risk of dementia (adjusted hazard ratio, 1.31; 95% confidence interval per standard deviation decrease, 1.07-1.61), similar for Alzheimer disease only, and unaltered by accounting for stroke. Risk of dementia with hypoperfusion was higher with increasing severity of white matter hyperintensities (with severe white matter hyperintensities; hazard ratio, 1.54; 95% confidence interval, 1.11-2.14). At cognitive reexamination after on average 5.7 years, lower baseline perfusion was associated with accelerated decline in cognition (global cognition: β=-0.029, P =0.003), which was similar after excluding those with incident dementia, and again most profound in individuals with higher volume of white matter hyperintensities ( P

Predictive value of updating Framingham risk scores with novel risk markers in the U.S. general population.

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Bart S Ferket

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS, carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT, high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP, and ankle-brachial index (ABI are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES 2003-2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male, 70% (80% were at low (<10%, 19% (14% at intermediate (≥10-<20%, and 11% (6% at high (≥20% 10-year CVD (CHD risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02-0.19. The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01-0.03 with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38% moved to low and 22% (30% to high CVD (CHD risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. CONCLUSIONS: Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies.

Predictive Value of Updating Framingham Risk Scores with Novel Risk Markers in the U.S. General Population

Science.gov (United States)

Hunink, M. G. Myriam; Agarwal, Isha; Kavousi, Maryam; Franco, Oscar H.; Steyerberg, Ewout W.; Max, Wendy; Fleischmann, Kirsten E.

2014-01-01

Background According to population-based cohort studies CT coronary calcium score (CTCS), carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT), high-sensitivity C- reactive protein (CRP), and ankle-brachial index (ABI) are promising novel risk markers for improving cardiovascular risk assessment. Their impact in the U.S. general population is however uncertain. Our aim was to estimate the predictive value of four novel cardiovascular risk markers for the U.S. general population. Methods and Findings Risk profiles, CRP and ABI data of 3,736 asymptomatic subjects aged 40 or older from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2003–2004 exam were used along with predicted CTCS and cIMT values. For each subject, we calculated 10-year cardiovascular risks with and without each risk marker. Event rates adjusted for competing risks were obtained by microsimulation. We assessed the impact of updated 10-year risk scores by reclassification and C-statistics. In the study population (mean age 56±11 years, 48% male), 70% (80%) were at low (risk. Net reclassification improvement was highest after updating 10-year CVD risk with CTCS: 0.10 (95%CI 0.02–0.19). The C-statistic for 10-year CVD risk increased from 0.82 by 0.02 (95%CI 0.01–0.03) with CTCS. Reclassification occurred most often in those at intermediate risk: with CTCS, 36% (38%) moved to low and 22% (30%) to high CVD (CHD) risk. Improvements with other novel risk markers were limited. Conclusions Only CTCS appeared to have significant incremental predictive value in the U.S. general population, especially in those at intermediate risk. In future research, cost-effectiveness analyses should be considered for evaluating novel cardiovascular risk assessment strategies. PMID:24558385

Global assessment of extinction risk to populations of Sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka.

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Peter S Rand

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Concern about the decline of wild salmon has attracted the attention of the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN. The IUCN applies quantitative criteria to assess risk of extinction and publishes its results on the Red List of Threatened Species. However, the focus is on the species level and thus may fail to show the risk to populations. The IUCN has adapted their criteria to apply to populations but there exist few examples of this type of assessment. We assessed the status of sockeye salmon Oncorhynchus nerka as a model for application of the IUCN population-level assessments and to provide the first global assessment of the status of an anadromous Pacific salmon. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We found from demographic data that the sockeye salmon species is not presently at risk of extinction. We identified 98 independent populations with varying levels of risk within the species' range. Of these, 5 (5% are already extinct. We analyzed the risk for 62 out of 93 extant populations (67% and found that 17 of these (27% are at risk of extinction. The greatest number and concentration of extinct and threatened populations is in the southern part of the North American range, primarily due to overfishing, freshwater habitat loss, dams, hatcheries, and changing ocean conditions. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Although sockeye salmon are not at risk at the species-level, about one-third of the populations that we analyzed are at risk or already extinct. Without an understanding of risk to biodiversity at the level of populations, the biodiversity loss in salmon would be greatly underrepresented on the Red List. We urge government, conservation organizations, scientists and the public to recognize this limitation of the Red List. We also urge recognition that about one-third of sockeye salmon global population diversity is at risk of extinction or already extinct.

Quasi-extinction risk and population targets for the Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus)

Science.gov (United States)

Semmens, Brice X.; Semmens, Darius J.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Wiederholt, Ruscena; Lopez-Hoffman, Laura; Diffendorfer, James E.; Pleasants, John M.; Oberhauser, Karen S.; Taylor, Orley R.

2016-01-01

The Eastern, migratory population of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus), an iconic North American insect, has declined by ~80% over the last decade. The monarch’s multi-generational migration between overwintering grounds in central Mexico and the summer breeding grounds in the northern U.S. and southern Canada is celebrated in all three countries and creates shared management responsibilities across North America. Here we present a novel Bayesian multivariate auto-regressive state-space model to assess quasi-extinction risk and aid in the establishment of a target population size for monarch conservation planning. We find that, given a range of plausible quasi-extinction thresholds, the population has a substantial probability of quasi-extinction, from 11–57% over 20 years, although uncertainty in these estimates is large. Exceptionally high population stochasticity, declining numbers, and a small current population size act in concert to drive this risk. An approximately 5-fold increase of the monarch population size (relative to the winter of 2014–15) is necessary to halve the current risk of quasi-extinction across all thresholds considered. Conserving the monarch migration thus requires active management to reverse population declines, and the establishment of an ambitious target population size goal to buffer against future environmentally driven variability.

Verification of average daily maximum permissible concentration of styrene in the atmospheric air of settlements under the results of epidemiological studies of the children’s population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

М.А. Zemlyanova

2015-03-01

Full Text Available We presented the materials on the verification of the average daily maximum permissible concentration of styrene in the atmospheric air of settlements performed under the results of own in-depth epidemiological studies of children’s population according to the principles of the international risk assessment practice. It was established that children in the age of 4–7 years when exposed to styrene at the level above 1.2 of threshold level value for continuous exposure develop the negative exposure effects in the form of disorders of hormonal regulation, pigmentary exchange, antioxidative activity, cytolysis, immune reactivity and cytogenetic disbalance which contribute to the increased morbidity of diseases of the central nervous system, endocrine system, respiratory organs, digestion and skin. Based on the proved cause-and-effect relationships between the biomarkers of negative effects and styrene concentration in blood it was demonstrated that the benchmark styrene concentration in blood is 0.002 mg/dm3. The justified value complies with and confirms the average daily styrene concentration in the air of settlements at the level of 0.002 mg/m3 accepted in Russia which provides the safety for the health of population (1 threshold level value for continuous exposure.

Identifying populations at risk from environmental contamination from point sources

OpenAIRE

Williams, F; Ogston, S

2002-01-01

Objectives: To compare methods for defining the population at risk from a point source of air pollution. A major challenge for environmental epidemiology lies in correctly identifying populations at risk from exposure to environmental pollutants. The complexity of today's environment makes it essential that the methods chosen are accurate and sensitive.

[Algorithm for taking into account the average annual background of air pollution in the assessment of health risks].

Science.gov (United States)

Fokin, M V

2013-01-01

State Budgetary Educational Institution of Higher Professional Education "I.M. Sechenov First Moscow State Medical University" of the Ministry of Health care and Social Development, Moscow, Russian Federation. The assessment of health risks from air pollution with emissions from industrial facilities, without the average annual background of air pollution does not meet sanitary legislation. However Russian Federal Service for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring issues official certificates for a limited number of areas covered by the observations of the full program on the stationary points. Questions of accounting average background air pollution in the evaluation of health risks from exposure to emissions from industrial facilities are considered.

Therapeutic product disposition in at-risk populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foster, B. C.

2009-01-01

In an emergency situation, such as a chemical, biological, radionuclide, nuclear or explosion (CBRNE) event, all patient populations are at increased risk of serious adverse events. Therapeutic product (TP) safety and efficacy depend on the disposition of the product through absorption, distribution, metabolism and excretion. The ability of a patient to benefit from or merely tolerate a TP can be modified by many factors, including but not limited to culture, diet, disease, environmental contaminants, genetic predisposition, stress and socioeconomic status and recent life experiences. Metabolism is considered to have the greatest effect on safety and efficacy, as chemicals not metabolised can accumulate to toxic levels. Inter-individual variances in most drug metabolism enzymes may range up to greater than 1000-fold. The fetus, neonates, infants, individuals with hormonal change, infection or prior exposure to licit or illicit products and the elderly are more susceptible to increased risk of serious adverse health effects. The critically ill are the most at risk. The at-risk populations for a serious adverse event are dependent then on the CBRNE event, their physical and cognitive states and the inter-individual intrinsic and extrinsic factors that affect TP disposition. (authors)

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

OpenAIRE

Howcroft, Jennifer; Kofman, Jonathan; Lemaire, Edward D

2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological f...

Evaluation of exposure in mammography: limitations of average glandular dose and proposal of a new quantity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Geeraert, N.; Bosmans, H.; Klausz, R.; Muller, S.; Bloch, I.

2015-01-01

The radiation risk in mammography is traditionally evaluated using the average glandular dose. This quantity for the average breast has proven to be useful for population statistics and to compare exposure techniques and systems. However it is not indicating the individual radiation risk based on the individual glandular amount and distribution. Simulations of exposures were performed for six appropriate virtual phantoms with varying glandular amount and distribution. The individualised average glandular dose (iAGD), i.e. the individual glandular absorbed energy divided by the mass of the gland, and the glandular imparted energy (GIE), i.e. the glandular absorbed energy, were computed. Both quantities were evaluated for their capability to take into account the glandular amount and distribution. As expected, the results have demonstrated that iAGD reflects only the distribution, while GIE reflects both the glandular amount and distribution. Therefore GIE is a good candidate for individual radiation risk assessment. (authors)

An example of population-level risk assessments for small mammals using individual-based population models.

Science.gov (United States)

Schmitt, Walter; Auteri, Domenica; Bastiansen, Finn; Ebeling, Markus; Liu, Chun; Luttik, Robert; Mastitsky, Sergey; Nacci, Diane; Topping, Chris; Wang, Magnus

2016-01-01

This article presents a case study demonstrating the application of 3 individual-based, spatially explicit population models (IBMs, also known as agent-based models) in ecological risk assessments to predict long-term effects of a pesticide to populations of small mammals. The 3 IBMs each used a hypothetical fungicide (FungicideX) in different scenarios: spraying in cereals (common vole, Microtus arvalis), spraying in orchards (field vole, Microtus agrestis), and cereal seed treatment (wood mouse, Apodemus sylvaticus). Each scenario used existing model landscapes, which differed greatly in size and structural complexity. The toxicological profile of FungicideX was defined so that the deterministic long-term first tier risk assessment would result in high risk to small mammals, thus providing the opportunity to use the IBMs for risk assessment refinement (i.e., higher tier risk assessment). Despite differing internal model design and scenarios, results indicated in all 3 cases low population sensitivity unless FungicideX was applied at very high (×10) rates. Recovery from local population impacts was generally fast. Only when patch extinctions occured in simulations of intentionally high acute toxic effects, recovery periods, then determined by recolonization, were of any concern. Conclusions include recommendations for the most important input considerations, including the selection of exposure levels, duration of simulations, statistically robust number of replicates, and endpoints to report. However, further investigation and agreement are needed to develop recommendations for landscape attributes such as size, structure, and crop rotation to define appropriate regulatory risk assessment scenarios. Overall, the application of IBMs provides multiple advantages to higher tier ecological risk assessments for small mammals, including consistent and transparent direct links to specific protection goals, and the consideration of more realistic scenarios. © 2015 SETAC.

Estimating cancer risks induced by CT screening for Korea population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang, Hye Jeong; Yang, Won Seok

2016-01-01

Computed Tomography(CT) has been used to diagnose early stages of cancer and other diseases. Since the number of CT screening has been increasing, there is now a debate about the possible benefits and risks of CT screening on asymptomatic individuals. CT screening has definite benefits, however the radiation risk of screening an asymptomatic individual is a serious problem that cannot be overlooked. Despite its potential risks, CT screening for asymptomatic individual has been gradually increased in Korea and it is attributed to increase collective effective dose. Therefore, we reported the risk level of each organ which is included in scan field for CT screening and analyzed and then evaluated the risk level of Korean population comparison to others, Hong Kong, U.S. and U.K. populations. LARs are lower with older ages for all populations of both sexes. We recommend CT screening after the age of 40 because from that age, LAR decreases and the danger of top 5 cancer increases.

Solid cancer risks from radiation exposure for the Australian population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wise, K.N.

2003-01-01

Estimates are made of the risks to the Australian population as a function of age and gender for mortality or morbidity for all solid cancers after exposure to radiation. Excess relative risk (ERR) and excess absolute risk (EAR) models are used. The model coefficients are re-evaluated for radiation doses expressed as effective dose using data from the Japanese Life Span Study. Life-table methods are used throughout and the risk measures studied are: the risk of exposure related death, RERD and the risk of exposure related cancer, RERC. Australian life-table data and the age-specific cancer incidence and mortality rates of Australian males and females are taken from recent published tables. No dose and dose-rate effectiveness factor is applied. Sources of uncertainty used to calculate the confidence regions for the estimated risks include the statistical uncertainties of the model parameters and of the extrapolation of the risks beyond the period supported by the epidemiological data. Summary values of the risks are reported as averages of those calculated from the ERR and the EAR models. For males, the mortality risks per sievert range from 14% for 0-9 year age group, 7% at 30-39 years and 4% at 50-59 years. Corresponding values for females are 20%, 10% and 6%. Incidence risks are higher: for males the estimates are 32% for the 0-9 year group, 12% at 30-39 and 5% at 50-59. Corresponding values for females are 56%, 20% and 8%. The 90% confidence regions are about ± 50% of these values. Estimates are given for the risks from CT whole-body scanning or virtual colonoscopy which could be used for cancer screening. If used at 3 year intervals and the effective dose per procedure is 10 mSv, then the RERD for males beginning screening at 40, 50 and 60 years is 0.4%, 0.3% and 0.1%, respectively and for females, 0.6%, 0.4% and 0.2%, respectively. RERD estimates for a 5 year interval between screens are about one-third smaller. Copyright (2003) Australasian College of

Colorectal cancer screening for average-risk North Americans: an economic evaluation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steven J Heitman

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Colorectal cancer (CRC fulfills the World Health Organization criteria for mass screening, but screening uptake is low in most countries. CRC screening is resource intensive, and it is unclear if an optimal strategy exists. The objective of this study was to perform an economic evaluation of CRC screening in average risk North American individuals considering all relevant screening modalities and current CRC treatment costs. METHODS AND FINDINGS: An incremental cost-utility analysis using a Markov model was performed comparing guaiac-based fecal occult blood test (FOBT or fecal immunochemical test (FIT annually, fecal DNA every 3 years, flexible sigmoidoscopy or computed tomographic colonography every 5 years, and colonoscopy every 10 years. All strategies were also compared to a no screening natural history arm. Given that different FIT assays and collection methods have been previously tested, three distinct FIT testing strategies were considered, on the basis of studies that have reported "low," "mid," and "high" test performance characteristics for detecting adenomas and CRC. Adenoma and CRC prevalence rates were based on a recent systematic review whereas screening adherence, test performance, and CRC treatment costs were based on publicly available data. The outcome measures included lifetime costs, number of cancers, cancer-related deaths, quality-adjusted life-years gained, and incremental cost-utility ratios. Sensitivity and scenario analyses were performed. Annual FIT, assuming mid-range testing characteristics, was more effective and less costly compared to all strategies (including no screening except FIT-high. Among the lifetimes of 100,000 average-risk patients, the number of cancers could be reduced from 4,857 to 1,393 [corrected] and the number of CRC deaths from 1,782 [corrected] to 457, while saving CAN$68 per person. Although screening patients with FIT became more expensive than a strategy of no screening when the

Fall risk in an active elderly population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Læssøe, Uffe; Hoeck, Hans C.; Simonsen, Ole

2007-01-01

risk can be assessed by testing balance performance. In this study a test battery of physiological parameters related to balance and falls was designed to address fall risk in a community dwelling elderly population. RESULTS: Ninety-four elderly males and females between 70 and 80 years of age were...... assessment in which the physiological performance is evaluated in relation to the activity profile of the individual. Udgivelsesdato: 2007-null...

Association between metabolic syndrome and 10-year risk of developing cardiovascular disease in a Nigerian population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Oguoma, Victor M.; Nwose, Ezekiel U.; Skinner, Timothy C.

2016-01-01

Background: Prevalence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) and consequential cardiovascular disease (CVD) events are on the increase in Nigeria. The study aimed to identify the prevalence of 10-year CVD risk in a Nigerian population and assess its relationship with different indices of MetS. Method....... MetS was defined based on the Joint Scientific Statement on Harmonizing the MetS. Result: Of the 211 subjects, mean age was 51.3±17.3 years. Average risk of developing CVD in the next 10 years was 3.7±5.3%. Prevalence of low, moderate and high risk of developing CVD among study participants was 86.......3% (95% CI 82.0-91.3%), 11.8% (95% CI 6.9-16.1%) and 1.9% (95% CI 0.0-3.8%), respectively. Prevalence of MetS was 26.7% (95% CI 21.0-33.3%). There was poor agreement between MetS and the CVD risk scores (kappa=0.209, p=0.001) Conclusions: The results showed that complementary use of MetS and CVD risk...

The average cost of pressure ulcer management in a community dwelling spinal cord injury population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Brian C; Nanwa, Natasha; Mittmann, Nicole; Bryant, Dianne; Coyte, Peter C; Houghton, Pamela E

2013-08-01

Pressure ulcers (PUs) are a common secondary complication experienced by community dwelling individuals with spinal cord injury (SCI). There is a paucity of literature on the health economic impact of PU in SCI population from a societal perspective. The objective of this study was to determine the resource use and costs in 2010 Canadian dollars of a community dwelling SCI individual experiencing a PU from a societal perspective. A non-comparative cost analysis was conducted on a cohort of community dwelling SCI individuals from Ontario, Canada. Medical resource use was recorded over the study period. Unit costs associated with these resources were collected from publicly available sources and published literature. Average monthly cost was calculated based on 7-month follow-up. Costs were stratified by age, PU history, severity level, location of SCI, duration of current PU and PU surface area. Sensitivity analyses were also carried out. Among the 12 study participants, total average monthly cost per community dwelling SCI individual with a PU was $4745. Hospital admission costs represented the greatest percentage of the total cost (62%). Sensitivity analysis showed that the total average monthly costs were most sensitive to variations in hospitalisation costs. © 2012 The Authors. International Wound Journal © 2012 John Wiley & Sons Ltd and Medicalhelplines.com Inc.

Organochlorines in urban soils from Central India: probabilistic health hazard and risk implications to human population.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Bhupander; Mishra, Meenu; Verma, V K; Rai, Premanjali; Kumar, Sanjay

2018-04-21

This study presents distribution of organochlorines (OCs) including HCH, DDT and PCBs in urban soils, and their environmental and human health risk. Forty-eight soil samples were extracted using ultrasonication, cleaned with modified silica gel chromatography and analyzed by GC-ECD. The observed concentrations of ∑HCH, ∑DDT and ∑PCBs in soils ranged between < 0.01-2.54, 1.30-27.41 and < 0.01-62.8 µg kg -1 , respectively, which were lower than the recommended soil quality guidelines. Human health risk was estimated following recommended guidelines. Lifetime average daily dose (LADD), non-cancer risk or hazard quotient (HQ) and incremental lifetime cancer risk (ILCR) for humans due to individual and total OCs were estimated and presented. Estimated LADD were lower than acceptable daily intake and reference dose. Human health risk estimates were lower than safe limit of non-cancer risk (HQ < 1.0) and the acceptable distribution range of ILCR (10 -6 -10 -4 ). Therefore, this study concluded that present levels of OCs (HCH, DDT and PCBs) in studied soils were low, and subsequently posed low health risk to human population in the study area.

Estimating internal exposure risks by the relative risk and the National Institute of Health risk models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehta, S.K.; Sarangapani, R.

1995-01-01

This paper presents tabulations of risk (R) and person-years of life lost (PYLL) for acute exposures of individual organs at ages 20 and 40 yrs for the Indian and Japanese populations to illustrate the effect of age at exposure in the two models. Results are also presented for the organ wise nominal probability coefficients (NPC) and PYLL for individual organs for the age distributed Indian population by the two models. The results presented show that for all organs the estimates of PYLL and NPC for the Indian population are lower than those for the Japanese population by both models except for oesophagus, breast and ovary by the relative risk (RR) model, where the opposite trend is observed. The results also show that the Indian all-cancer values of NPC averaged over the two models is 2.9 x 10 -2 Sv -1 , significantly lower than the world average value of 5x10 -2 Sv -1 estimated by the ICRP. (author). 9 refs., 2 figs., 2 tabs

Predation risk shapes social networks in fission-fusion populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jennifer L Kelley

Full Text Available Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission and merging (fusion events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems.

Predation Risk Shapes Social Networks in Fission-Fusion Populations

Science.gov (United States)

Kelley, Jennifer L.; Morrell, Lesley J.; Inskip, Chloe; Krause, Jens; Croft, Darren P.

2011-01-01

Predation risk is often associated with group formation in prey, but recent advances in methods for analysing the social structure of animal societies make it possible to quantify the effects of risk on the complex dynamics of spatial and temporal organisation. In this paper we use social network analysis to investigate the impact of variation in predation risk on the social structure of guppy shoals and the frequency and duration of shoal splitting (fission) and merging (fusion) events. Our analyses revealed that variation in the level of predation risk was associated with divergent social dynamics, with fish in high-risk populations displaying a greater number of associations with overall greater strength and connectedness than those from low-risk sites. Temporal patterns of organisation also differed according to predation risk, with fission events more likely to occur over two short time periods (5 minutes and 20 minutes) in low-predation fish and over longer time scales (>1.5 hours) in high-predation fish. Our findings suggest that predation risk influences the fine-scale social structure of prey populations and that the temporal aspects of organisation play a key role in defining social systems. PMID:21912627

Risks and radiation doses due to residential radon in Germany

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beck, T.R.

2017-01-01

The population-averaged risk rate and the annual average effective dose due to residential radon in Germany were calculated. The calculations were based on an epidemiological approach taking into account the age- and gender-specific lung cancer incidence rates for the German population and the excess relative risk of 0.16 per 100 Bq.m"-"3 for residential radon. In addition, the risk estimates adjusted for the smoking habits were determined. The population-averaged risk rate for the whole population was estimated with 4.1.10"-"5 y"-"1 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.4.10"-"5 - 7.6.10"-"5 y"-"1). Residential radon causes a detriment per year of 3.3.10"-"5 y"-"1 (95% CI 1.1.10"-"5 - 6.0.10"-"5 y"-"1), which corresponds to an annual average effective dose of 0.6 mSv (95% CI 0.2-1.1 mSv). Annually, ∼3400 lung cancer incidences are attributed to residential radon. The results from the epidemiological approach exercised in this study are considerably lower than the effective dose, which would be obtained from the dose conversion coefficient calculated using biokinetic and dosimetric models. (author)

Predicting population level risk effects of predation from the responses of individuals

OpenAIRE

Macleod, Colin D.; Macleod, Ross; Learmonth, Jennifer A.; Cresswell, Will; Pierce, G.J.

2014-01-01

Fear of predation produces large effects on prey population dynamics through indirect risk effects that can cause even greater impacts than direct predation mortality. As yet, there is no general theoretical framework for predicting when and how these population risk effects will arise in specific prey populations, meaning there is often little consideration given to the key role predator risk effects can play in understanding conservation and wildlife management challenges. Here, we propose ...

Population differentiation in allele frequencies of obesity-associated SNPs.

Science.gov (United States)

Mao, Linyong; Fang, Yayin; Campbell, Michael; Southerland, William M

2017-11-10

Obesity is emerging as a global health problem, with more than one-third of the world's adult population being overweight or obese. In this study, we investigated worldwide population differentiation in allele frequencies of obesity-associated SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms). We collected a total of 225 obesity-associated SNPs from a public database. Their population-level allele frequencies were derived based on the genotype data from 1000 Genomes Project (phase 3). We used hypergeometric model to assess whether the effect allele at a given SNP is significantly enriched or depleted in each of the 26 populations surveyed in the 1000 Genomes Project with respect to the overall pooled population. Our results indicate that 195 out of 225 SNPs (86.7%) possess effect alleles significantly enriched or depleted in at least one of the 26 populations. Populations within the same continental group exhibit similar allele enrichment/depletion patterns whereas inter-continental populations show distinct patterns. Among the 225 SNPs, 15 SNPs cluster in the first intron region of the FTO gene, which is a major gene associated with body-mass index (BMI) and fat mass. African populations exhibit much smaller blocks of LD (linkage disequilibrium) among these15 SNPs while European and Asian populations have larger blocks. To estimate the cumulative effect of all variants associated with obesity, we developed the personal composite genetic risk score for obesity. Our results indicate that the East Asian populations have the lowest averages of the composite risk scores, whereas three European populations have the highest averages. In addition, the population-level average of composite genetic risk scores is significantly correlated (R 2 = 0.35, P = 0.0060) with obesity prevalence. We have detected substantial population differentiation in allele frequencies of obesity-associated SNPs. The results will help elucidate the genetic basis which may contribute to population

Prolonged QTc interval and risk of sudden cardiac death in a population of older adults

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Straus, Sabine M J M; Kors, Jan A; De Bruin, Marie L

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVES: This study sought to investigate whether prolongation of the heart rate-corrected QT (QTc) interval is a risk factor for sudden cardiac death in the general population. BACKGROUND: In developed countries, sudden cardiac death is a major cause of cardiovascular mortality. Prolongation...... of the QTc interval has been associated with ventricular arrhythmias, but in most population-based studies no consistent association was found between QTc prolongation and total or cardiovascular mortality. Only very few of these studies specifically addressed sudden cardiac death. METHODS: This study......). The association between a prolonged QTc interval and sudden cardiac death was estimated using Cox proportional hazards analysis. RESULTS: During an average follow-up period of 6.7 years (standard deviation, 2.3 years) 125 patients died of sudden cardiac death. An abnormally prolonged QTc interval (>450 ms in men...

Large Scale Flood Risk Analysis using a New Hyper-resolution Population Dataset

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, A.; Neal, J. C.; Bates, P. D.; Quinn, N.; Wing, O.

2017-12-01

Here we present the first national scale flood risk analyses, using high resolution Facebook Connectivity Lab population data and data from a hyper resolution flood hazard model. In recent years the field of large scale hydraulic modelling has been transformed by new remotely sensed datasets, improved process representation, highly efficient flow algorithms and increases in computational power. These developments have allowed flood risk analysis to be undertaken in previously unmodeled territories and from continental to global scales. Flood risk analyses are typically conducted via the integration of modelled water depths with an exposure dataset. Over large scales and in data poor areas, these exposure data typically take the form of a gridded population dataset, estimating population density using remotely sensed data and/or locally available census data. The local nature of flooding dictates that for robust flood risk analysis to be undertaken both hazard and exposure data should sufficiently resolve local scale features. Global flood frameworks are enabling flood hazard data to produced at 90m resolution, resulting in a mis-match with available population datasets which are typically more coarsely resolved. Moreover, these exposure data are typically focused on urban areas and struggle to represent rural populations. In this study we integrate a new population dataset with a global flood hazard model. The population dataset was produced by the Connectivity Lab at Facebook, providing gridded population data at 5m resolution, representing a resolution increase over previous countrywide data sets of multiple orders of magnitude. Flood risk analysis undertaken over a number of developing countries are presented, along with a comparison of flood risk analyses undertaken using pre-existing population datasets.

Dealing with at-risk populations in radiological/nuclear emergencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wilkinson, D.

2009-01-01

In a mass casualty event, there will be at-risk populations that will require unique triage, treatment and consequence management to minimise immediate and long-term health effects. This statement is particularly true for radiological/nuclear (R/N) disasters where individuals exhibit a broad range of physiological responses to radiation exposure. For example, immunocompromised individuals will experience more detrimental radiation health effects; however, it is not always possible to definitively identify these individuals at the time of triage. Immediate and long-term consequence management for these individuals may require unique and potentially limited resources. Thus, at the time of an R/N event, it is crucial to assist community planners by: (a) rapidly identifying at-risk individuals who may have been exposed; (b) determining the dose and individual-specific health risks associated with radiation exposure; (c) identifying additional resources needed to deal with unique, population-specific requirements; and (d) developing treatment strategies in keeping with the rules of 'supply and demand'. A comprehensive approach to identifying issues relevant to the R/N emergency preparedness for dealing with at-risk populations will be discussed with the aim of defining future research objectives. (authors)

The effects of spatial population dataset choice on estimates of population at risk of disease

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gething Peter W

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The spatial modeling of infectious disease distributions and dynamics is increasingly being undertaken for health services planning and disease control monitoring, implementation, and evaluation. Where risks are heterogeneous in space or dependent on person-to-person transmission, spatial data on human population distributions are required to estimate infectious disease risks, burdens, and dynamics. Several different modeled human population distribution datasets are available and widely used, but the disparities among them and the implications for enumerating disease burdens and populations at risk have not been considered systematically. Here, we quantify some of these effects using global estimates of populations at risk (PAR of P. falciparum malaria as an example. Methods The recent construction of a global map of P. falciparum malaria endemicity enabled the testing of different gridded population datasets for providing estimates of PAR by endemicity class. The estimated population numbers within each class were calculated for each country using four different global gridded human population datasets: GRUMP (~1 km spatial resolution, LandScan (~1 km, UNEP Global Population Databases (~5 km, and GPW3 (~5 km. More detailed assessments of PAR variation and accuracy were conducted for three African countries where census data were available at a higher administrative-unit level than used by any of the four gridded population datasets. Results The estimates of PAR based on the datasets varied by more than 10 million people for some countries, even accounting for the fact that estimates of population totals made by different agencies are used to correct national totals in these datasets and can vary by more than 5% for many low-income countries. In many cases, these variations in PAR estimates comprised more than 10% of the total national population. The detailed country-level assessments suggested that none of the datasets was

Risk of eating disorders in immigrant populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Mustelin, L; Hedman, A M; Thornton, L M; Kuja-Halkola, R; Keski-Rahkonen, A; Cantor-Graae, E; Almqvist, C; Birgegård, A; Lichtenstein, P; Mortensen, P B; Pedersen, C B; Bulik, C M

2017-08-01

The risk of certain psychiatric disorders is elevated among immigrants. To date, no population studies on immigrant health have addressed eating disorders. We examined whether risk of eating disorders in first- and second-generation immigrants differs from native-born Danes and Swedes. All individuals born 1984-2002 (Danish cohort) and 1989-1999 (Swedish cohort) and residing in the respective country on their 10th birthday were included. They were followed up for the development of eating disorders based on out-patient and in-patient data. The risks of all eating disorder types were lower among first-generation immigrants compared to the native populations: Incidence-rate ratio (95% confidence interval) was 0.39 (0.29, 0.51) for anorexia nervosa, 0.60 (0.42, 0.83) for bulimia nervosa, and 0.62 (0.47, 0.79) for other eating disorders in Denmark and 0.27 (0.21, 0.34) for anorexia nervosa, 0.30 (0.18, 0.51) for bulimia nervosa, and 0.39 (0.32, 0.47) for other eating disorders in Sweden. Likewise, second-generation immigrants by both parents were at lower risk, whereas those with only one foreign-born parent were not. The decreased risk of eating disorders among immigrants is opposite to what has been observed for other psychiatric disorders, particularly schizophrenia. Possible explanations include buffering sociocultural factors and underdetection in health care. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Risk Factors for Venous Thromboembolism in Hospitalized Patients in the Chinese Population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wang Chunling

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Venous thromboembolism (VTE refers to the formation of a blood clot inside veins and has a high risk of inducing medical accidents. An effective risk assessment model will help screen high risk populations and prevent the occurrence of VTE. In this study, 287 VTE cases were collected and analyzed for risk factors in a Chinese population. The risks of VTE were evaluated using the Caprini and Padua models. Our results indicated that the Caprini model was more effective in evaluating VTE risk among hospitalized patients than the Padua model. As well, the Caprini model was more relevant in VTE risk assessment among surgery patients compared with internal medicine patients, while the Padua model showed no significant differences. In our studies, the most frequent risk factors included obesity, medical patients currently at bed rest, and severe lung disease. Our studies provide clinical support on selecting the suitable risk assessment model of VTE in the Chinese population.

Radiation Risk and Possible Consequences for Ukrainian Population

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pivovarov, Alexander [Ukrainian State Chemical-Technology Univ., Dnepropetrovsk (Ukraine)

2006-09-15

The paper deals with the values of risk related to environmental pollution with radionuclides from the main sources located both on the territory of Ukraine and outside, which affect the Ukrainian population, in the context of long-range outlook. Ratios of risk for stochastic effects occurrence are given per unit of individual or collective dose, as well as for occurrence of fatal cancer, non-fatal cancer or serious hereditary effects. Besides, the paper mentions not only the impact of ionizing radiation, but severe population stress as well, which in certain regions turns into radiophobia. It is shown that for essential decrease of radiation risk in Ukraine, global problems should be solved, first of all, at the governmental level. Whereas a number of issues connected with the Chernobyl catastrophe are at least partially solved, the problems concerning the effects of radon and other radiation-dangerous factors are still to be tackled.

Radiation Risk and Possible Consequences for Ukrainian Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pivovarov, Alexander

2006-01-01

The paper deals with the values of risk related to environmental pollution with radionuclides from the main sources located both on the territory of Ukraine and outside, which affect the Ukrainian population, in the context of long-range outlook. Ratios of risk for stochastic effects occurrence are given per unit of individual or collective dose, as well as for occurrence of fatal cancer, non-fatal cancer or serious hereditary effects. Besides, the paper mentions not only the impact of ionizing radiation, but severe population stress as well, which in certain regions turns into radiophobia. It is shown that for essential decrease of radiation risk in Ukraine, global problems should be solved, first of all, at the governmental level. Whereas a number of issues connected with the Chernobyl catastrophe are at least partially solved, the problems concerning the effects of radon and other radiation-dangerous factors are still to be tackled

Assessing population exposure for landslide risk analysis using dasymetric cartography

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, Ricardo A. C.; Oliveira, Sergio C.; Zezere, Jose L.

2015-04-01

Exposed Population is a major topic that needs to be taken into account in a full landslide risk analysis. Usually, risk analysis is based on an accounting of inhabitants number or inhabitants density, applied over statistical or administrative terrain units, such as NUTS or parishes. However, this kind of approach may skew the obtained results underestimating the importance of population, mainly in territorial units with predominance of rural occupation. Furthermore, the landslide susceptibility scores calculated for each terrain unit are frequently more detailed and accurate than the location of the exposed population inside each territorial unit based on Census data. These drawbacks are not the ideal setting when landslide risk analysis is performed for urban management and emergency planning. Dasymetric cartography, which uses a parameter or set of parameters to restrict the spatial distribution of a particular phenomenon, is a methodology that may help to enhance the resolution of Census data and therefore to give a more realistic representation of the population distribution. Therefore, this work aims to map and to compare the population distribution based on a traditional approach (population per administrative terrain units) and based on dasymetric cartography (population by building). The study is developed in the Region North of Lisbon using 2011 population data and following three main steps: i) the landslide susceptibility assessment based on statistical models independently validated; ii) the evaluation of population distribution (absolute and density) for different administrative territorial units (Parishes and BGRI - the basic statistical unit in the Portuguese Census); and iii) the dasymetric population's cartography based on building areal weighting. Preliminary results show that in sparsely populated administrative units, population density differs more than two times depending on the application of the traditional approach or the dasymetric

Chemical factors of soil polution in Taganrog as population health risk factors

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G.T. Aydinov

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Our research goal was to perform a hygienic assessment of soil pollution with chemicals on areas aimed for housing and recreation zones in Taganrog, Rostov region. Due to the fact that surface layer of city soils is an open dynamic system which is tightly connected to atmosphere and hydrosphere we treated pollutants content in soils as indicators of territory anthropogenic transformation and technogenic load on population. We used atomic-adsorption spectrophotometry to detect heavy metals and highly efficient liquid chromatography to detect 3,4-benzpyrene content. The results comprise 660 examined soil samples taken from 19 monitoring points; they were examined to detect 7 pollutants content (lead, zinc, copper, nickel, cadmium, chromium, and mercury over 2008–2015; 144 samples were examined to detect 3,4-benzpyrene content over 2013–2015. We determined that priority pollutants among detected metals were zinc and lead; their content in city soils amounted up to 5.91 and 1.95 maximum permissible concentration. Complex indicator of city soils contamination varied from 1.61 to 2.02, long-term average annual value being 1.83. 3,4-benzpyrene was confirmed to be a substantial risk factor for population health as its concentrations exceeded maximum allowable values in 65.28 % of examined soil samples at average and maximum concentrations (2.45 and 38.05 MPC correspondingly. We recommend to include this chemical into systematic environmental quality monitoring. We detected regional peculiarities of soil pollution with chemicals on city territories aimed for housing, territories of pre-school children facilities, and recreation zones.

Automation of GIS-Based Population Data-Collection for Transportation Risk Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MILLS, G. SCOTT; NEUHAUSER, SIEGLINDE

1999-01-01

Estimation of the potential radiological risks associated with highway transport of radioactive materials (RAM) requires input data describing population densities adjacent to all portions of the route to be traveled. Previously, aggregated risks for entire multi-state routes were adequately estimated from population data with low geographic resolution. Current demands for geographically-specific risk estimates require similar increases in resolution of population density adjacent to route segments. With the advent of commercial geographic information systems (GISs) and databases describing highways, U.S. Census Blocks, and other information that is geographically distributed, it became feasible to determine and tabulate population characteristics along transportation routes with 1-kilometer resolution. This report describes an automated method of collecting population data adjacent to route segments (for calculation of incident-free doses) based on a commercial GIS. It also describes a statistical method of resolving remaining resolution issues, and an adaptation of the automation method to collection of data on population under a hypothetical plume of contamination resulting from a potential transportation accident

Modelling Risk to US Military Populations from Stopping Blanket Mandatory Polio Vaccination.

Science.gov (United States)

Burgess, Colleen; Burgess, Andrew; McMullen, Kellie

2017-01-01

Transmission of polio poses a threat to military forces when deploying to regions where such viruses are endemic. US-born soldiers generally enter service with immunity resulting from childhood immunization against polio; moreover, new recruits are routinely vaccinated with inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV), supplemented based upon deployment circumstances. Given residual protection from childhood vaccination, risk-based vaccination may sufficiently protect troops from polio transmission. This analysis employed a mathematical system for polio transmission within military populations interacting with locals in a polio-endemic region to evaluate changes in vaccination policy. Removal of blanket immunization had no effect on simulated polio incidence among deployed military populations when risk-based immunization was employed; however, when these individuals reintegrated with their base populations, risk of transmission to nondeployed personnel increased by 19%. In the absence of both blanket- and risk-based immunization, transmission to nondeployed populations increased by 25%. The overall number of new infections among nondeployed populations was negligible for both scenarios due to high childhood immunization rates, partial protection against transmission conferred by IPV, and low global disease incidence levels. Risk-based immunization driven by deployment to polio-endemic regions is sufficient to prevent transmission among both deployed and nondeployed US military populations.

Modifiable Cardiovascular Disease Risk Factors among Indigenous Populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam A. Lucero

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Objective. To identify modifiable cardio-metabolic and lifestyle risk factors among indigenous populations from Australia (Aboriginal Australians/Torres Strait Islanders, New Zealand (Māori, and the United States (American Indians and Alaska Natives that contribute to cardiovascular disease (CVD. Methods. National health surveys were identified where available. Electronic databases identified sources for filling missing data. The most relevant data were identified, organized, and synthesized. Results. Compared to their non-indigenous counterparts, indigenous populations exhibit lower life expectancies and a greater prevalence of CVD. All indigenous populations have higher rates of obesity and diabetes, hypertension is greater for Māori and Aboriginal Australians, and high cholesterol is greater only among American Indians/Alaska Natives. In turn, all indigenous groups exhibit higher rates of smoking and dangerous alcohol behaviour as well as consuming less fruits and vegetables. Aboriginal Australians and American Indians/Alaska Natives also exhibit greater rates of sedentary behaviour. Conclusion. Indigenous groups from Australia, New Zealand, and the United States have a lower life expectancy then their respective non-indigenous counterparts. A higher prevalence of CVD is a major driving force behind this discrepancy. A cluster of modifiable cardio-metabolic risk factors precede CVD, which, in turn, is linked to modifiable lifestyle risk factors.

Average annual doses, lifetime doses and associated risk of cancer death for radiation workers in various fuel fabrication facilities in India

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Iyer, P.S.; Dhond, R.V.

1980-01-01

Lifetime doses based on average annual doses are estimated for radiation workers in various fuel fabrication facilities in India. For such cumulative doses, the risk of radiation-induced cancer death is computed. The methodology for arriving at these estimates and the assumptions made are discussed. Based on personnel monitoring records from 1966 to 1978, the average annual dose equivalent for radiation workers is estimated as 0.9 mSv (90 mrem), and the maximum risk of cancer death associated with this occupational dose as 1.35x10 -5 a -1 , as compared with the risk of death due to natural causes of 7x10 -4 a -1 and the risk of death due to background radiation alone of 1.5x10 -5 a -1 . (author)

Results of faecal immunochemical test for colorectal cancer screening, in average risk population, in a cohort of 1389 subjects.

Science.gov (United States)

Miuţescu, Bogdan; Sporea, Ioan; Popescu, Alina; Bota, Simona; Iovănescu, Dana; Burlea, Amelia; Mos, Liana; Miuţescu, Eftimie

2013-01-01

The aim of this study is to evaluate the usefulness of the fecal immunochemical test (FIT) in colorectal cancer screening, detection of precancerous lesions and early colorectal cancer. The study evaluated asymptomatic patients with average risk (no personal or family antecedents of polyps or colorectal cancer), aged between 50 and 74 years. The presence of the occult haemorrhage was tested with the immunochemical faecal test Hem Check 1 (Veda Lab, France). The subjects were not requested to have any dietary or drug restrictions. Colonoscopy was recommended in all subjects that tested positive. In our study, we had a total of 1389 participants who met the inclusion criteria, with a mean age of 61.2 ± 12.8 years, 565 (40.7%) men and 824 (59.3%) women. FIT was positive in 87 individuals (6.3%). In 57/87 subjects (65.5%) with positive FIT, colonoscopy was performed, while the rest of the subjects refused or delayed the investigation. A number of 5 (8.8%) patients were not able to have a complete colonoscopy, due to neoplastic stenosis. The colonoscopies revealed in 10 cases (0.7%) cancer, in 29 cases (2.1%) advanced adenomas and in 15 cases (1.1%) non advanced adenomas from the total participants in the study. The colonoscopies performed revealed a greater percentage of advanced adenomas in the left colon compared to the right colon, 74.1% vs. 28.6% (p<0.001). In our study, FIT had a positivity rate of 6.3%. The detection rate for advanced neoplasia was 2.8% (0.7% for cancer, 2.1% for advanced adenomas) in our study group. Adherence to colonoscopy for FIT-positive subjects was 65.5%.

Improving the Grade Point Average of Our At-Risk Students: A Collaborative Group Action Research Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Saurino, Dan R.; Hinson, Kenneth; Bouma, Amy

This paper focuses on the use of a group action research approach to help student teachers develop strategies to improve the grade point average of at-risk students. Teaching interventions such as group work and group and individual tutoring were compared to teaching strategies already used in the field. Results indicated an improvement in the…

Risk factors for breast cancer in a population with high incidence rates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wrensch, Margaret; Peskin-Mentzer, Roni; Quesenberry, Charles P Jr; Souders-Mason, Virginia; Spence, Linda; Suzuki, Marisa; Gould, Mary; Chew, Terri; Farren, Georgianna; Barlow, Janice; Belli, Flavia; Clarke, Christina; Erdmann, Christine A; Lee, Marion; Moghadassi, Michelle

2003-01-01

This report examines generally recognized breast cancer risk factors and years of residence in Marin County, California, an area with high breast cancer incidence and mortality rates. Eligible women who were residents of Marin County diagnosed with breast cancer in 1997–99 and women without breast cancer obtained through random digit dialing, frequency-matched by cases' age at diagnosis and ethnicity, participated in either full in-person or abbreviated telephone interviews. In multivariate analyses, 285 cases were statistically significantly more likely than 286 controls to report being premenopausal, never to have used birth control pills, a lower highest lifetime body mass index, four or more mammograms in 1990–94, beginning drinking after the age of 21, on average drinking two or more drinks per day, the highest quartile of pack-years of cigarette smoking and having been raised in an organized religion. Cases and controls did not significantly differ with regard to having a first-degree relative with breast cancer, a history of benign breast biopsy, previous radiation treatment, age at menarche, parity, use of hormone replacement therapy, age of first living in Marin County, or total years lived in Marin County. Results for several factors differed for women aged under 50 years or 50 years and over. Despite similar distributions of several known breast cancer risk factors, case-control differences in alcohol consumption suggest that risk in this high-risk population might be modifiable. Intensive study of this or other areas of similarly high incidence might reveal other important risk factors proximate to diagnosis

Validation of an imaging based cardiovascular risk score in a Scottish population.

Science.gov (United States)

Kockelkoren, Remko; Jairam, Pushpa M; Murchison, John T; Debray, Thomas P A; Mirsadraee, Saeed; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Jong, Pim A de; van Beek, Edwin J R

2018-01-01

A radiological risk score that determines 5-year cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk using routine care CT and patient information readily available to radiologists was previously developed. External validation in a Scottish population was performed to assess the applicability and validity of the risk score in other populations. 2915 subjects aged ≥40 years who underwent routine clinical chest CT scanning for non-cardiovascular diagnostic indications were followed up until first diagnosis of, or death from, CVD. Using a case-cohort approach, all cases and a random sample of 20% of the participant's CT examinations were visually graded for cardiovascular calcifications and cardiac diameter was measured. The radiological risk score was determined using imaging findings, age, gender, and CT indication. Performance on 5-year CVD risk prediction was assessed. 384 events occurred in 2124 subjects during a mean follow-up of 4.25 years (0-6.4 years). The risk score demonstrated reasonable performance in the studied population. Calibration showed good agreement between actual and 5-year predicted risk of CVD. The c-statistic was 0.71 (95%CI:0.67-0.75). The radiological CVD risk score performed adequately in the Scottish population offering a potential novel strategy for identifying patients at high risk for developing cardiovascular disease using routine care CT data. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantifying risks experienced by populations exposed to low levels of environmental contaminants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gilbert, E.S.

1985-05-01

The objective was to provide a direct assessment of risks associated with exposures at the actual levels of interest. There are several epidemiological studies of populations that have received occupational exposure to radiation including workers at the Hanford nuclear facility. This population was used as a typical example to illustrate methods of analyzing such data. The Hanford data appear to demonstrate directly that risk estimates obtained by linear extrapolation from data on populations exposed at high levels are unlikely to underestimate risks by a factor greater than three. 15 refs

Quantifying introgression risk with realistic population genetics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ghosh, A.; Meirmans, P.G.; Haccou, P.

2012-01-01

Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. This can have severe consequences, such as extinction of endemic species, or the spread of transgenes. Quantification of the risk of introgression is an important component of genetically modified

Radiation related cancer risk after ionization radiation exposure to the Bulgarian population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chobanova, N.; Vasilev, G.; Hadjieva, T.

2008-01-01

Average annual individual effective dose of natural radiation background (NRB) for the Bulgarian population is estimated to be 2.33 mSv.a -1 (from 1.60 to 3.06). NRB has been considered nearly constant in time, but during the 20th century the radiation above NRB has gradually increased. It was mainly caused by the medical X-ray and radionuclide diagnostics, radiation treatment, occupational radiation, global radioactive fallout, Chernobyl accident, exploitation of thermal power and nuclear power stations, etc. For the years 1950-2000 collective dose from NRB represents 965 000 man.Sv and radiation over NRB gives 1 042 800 man.Sv. Population risk following radiation exposure is estimated mainly on stochastic health effect by implementation of the so-called Linear non-threshold model (LNM) dose-effect. It postulates no dose threshold for radiation-induced health effects. Using different models, assumptions and assessments, authors have determined the contribution of lethal radiogenic cancer to Bulgarian spontaneous cancer rate to be from 3.7% to 20.6%. Numerous contradictions and concepts about the LNM still persist, because from statistical point of view, LNM can neither be proved nor rejected. (authors)

Adding Value to Ecological Risk Assessment with Population Modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Forbes, Valery E.; Calow, Peter; Grimm, Volker

2011-01-01

population models can provide a powerful basis for expressing ecological risks that better inform the environmental management process and thus that are more likely to be used by managers. Here we provide at least five reasons why population modeling should play an important role in bridging the gap between...

Estimating population health risk from low-level environmental radon

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fisher, D.R.

1980-01-01

Although incidence of respiratory cancer is directly related to inhalation of radon and radon daughters, the magnitude of the actual risk is uncertain for members of the general population exposed for long periods to low-level concentrations. Currently, any such estimate of the risk must rely on data obtained through previous studies of underground-miner populations. Several methods of risk analysis have resulted from these studies. Since the breathing atmospheres, smoking patterns, and physiology are different between miners and the general public, overestimates of lung cancer risk to the latter may have resulted. Strong evidence exists to support the theory of synergistic action between alpha radiation and other agents, and therefore a modified relative risk model was developed to predict lung cancer risks to the general public. The model considers latent period, observation period, age dependency, and inherent risks from smoking or geographical location. A test of the model showed excellent agreement with results of the study of Czechoslovakian uranium miners, for which the necessary time factors were available. The risk model was also used to predict lung cancer incidence among residents of homes on reclaimed Florida phosphate lands, and results of this analysis indicate that over the space of many years, the increased incidence of lung cancer due to elevated radon levels may be indisgtinguishable from those due to other causes

Prognostic Value of Electrocardiographic Left Ventricular Hypertrophy on Cardiovascular Risk in a Non-hypertensive Community-based Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Kentaro; Tanaka, Fumitaka; Onoda, Toshiyuki; Tanno, Kozo; Ohsawa, Masaki; Sakata, Kiyomi; Omama, Shinichi; Ogasawara, Kuniaki; Ishibashi, Yasuhiro; Itai, Kazuyoshi; Kuribayashi, Toru; Okayama, Akira; Nakamura, Motoyuki

2018-04-06

The appearance of left ventricular hypertrophy on 12-lead electrocardiography (ECG-LVH) has been clarified to be associated with the risk of incidence of cardiovascular events (CVEs) in hypertensive individuals and the general population, but not enough in non-hypertensive individuals. A total of 4,927 non-hypertensive individuals ≥ 40 years of age who were free of CVE in the general population were followed for the incidence of CVE. ECG-LVH was defined according to criteria of the Sokolow-Lyon (SL) voltage, Cornell voltage (CV), or Cornell voltage product (CP). During the average 9.8 ± 2.0 years of follow-up, 267 individuals (5.4%) had their first CVE. The hazard ratio (HR) for the incidence of CVE after full adjustment by potential confounders significantly increased in the individuals with ECG-LVH by any criteria of the SL voltage, CV, and CP (HR = 1.77, p < 0.001) compared to those with no ECG-LVH. This association was significant also in individuals without any of obesity, dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus or those with systolic BP <120 mmHg and diastolic BP < 80mmHg. Furthermore, ECG-LVH by each criteria provided the reclassification improvement for the CVE risk prediction model by the Framingham 10-year risk score (the net reclassification improvement = 0.17 to 0.22, each p value < 0.010). In the absence of hypertension, ECG-LVH parameters are associated with the increased risk of developed CVEs independent of the established risk factors and provide the additional prognostic value in an assessment of the CVE risk using the traditional risk factors.

Global importation and population risk factors for measles in New Zealand: a case study for highly immunized populations.

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Hayman, D T S; Marshall, J C; French, N P; Carpenter, T E; Roberts, M G; Kiedrzynski, T

2017-07-01

As endemic measles is eliminated through immunization, countries must determine the risk factors for the importation of measles into highly immunized populations to target control measures. Despite eliminating endemic measles, New Zealand suffers from outbreaks after introductions from abroad, enabling us to use it as a model for measles introduction risk. We used a generalized linear model to analyze risk factors for 1137 measles cases from 2007 to June 2014, provide estimates of national immunity levels, and model measles importation risk. People of European ethnicity made up the majority of measles cases. Age is a positive risk factor, particularly 0-2-year-olds and 5-17-year-old Europeans, along with increased wealth. Pacific islanders were also at greater risk, but due to 0-2-year-old cases. Despite recent high measles, mumps, and rubella vaccine immunization coverage, overall population immunity against measles remains ~90% and is lower in people born between 1982 and 2005. Greatest measles importation risk is during December, and countries predicted to be sources have historical connections and highest travel rates (Australia and UK), followed by Asian countries with high travel rates and higher measles incidences. Our results suggest measles importation due to travel is seeding measles outbreaks, and immunization levels are insufficient to continue to prevent outbreaks because of heterogeneous immunity in the population, leaving particular age groups at risk.

Increased risk of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease in patients with bipolar disorder: A population-based study.

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Hsu, Jer-Hwa; Chien, I-Chia; Lin, Ching-Heng

2017-10-01

We conducted this nationwide study to examine the prevalence and incidence of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) among patients with bipolar disorder in Taiwan. We used a random sample of 766,427 subjects who were aged ≥18 years in 2005. Patients with at least one primary diagnosis of bipolar disorder were identified. Study participants with one primary or secondary diagnosis of COPD for either ambulatory or inpatient care were also identified. We compared the prevalence of COPD in patients with bipolar disorder and the general population in 2005. In addition, we further investigated this cohort from 2006 to 2010 to detect incident cases of COPD in patients with bipolar disorder compared with the general population. The factors associated with COPD among patients with bipolar disorder were also analyzed. The prevalence of COPD in patients with bipolar disorder was higher than in the general population in 2005 (5.68% vs. 2.88%, odds ratio 2.03; 95% confidence interval, 1.53-2.67). The average annual incidence of COPD in patients with bipolar disorder was also higher than in the general population (2.03% vs. 1.03%, risk ratio 1.94; 95% confidence interval, 1.65-2.29) from 2006 to 2010. Some risk factors for COPD such as substance use, obesity, or lifestyle pattern were not available in this study. Patients with bipolar disorder had a higher prevalence and incidence of COPD compared with the general population. Higher prevalence of COPD among bipolar patients was associated with increased age, males, hypertension, and second-generation antidepressant use. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Investigating maternal risk factors as potential targets of intervention to reduce socioeconomic inequality in small for gestational age: a population-based study.

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Hayward, Irene; Malcoe, Lorraine Halinka; Cleathero, Lesley A; Janssen, Patricia A; Lanphear, Bruce P; Hayes, Michael V; Mattman, Andre; Pampalon, Robert; Venners, Scott A

2012-06-13

The major aim of this study was to investigate whether maternal risk factors associated with socioeconomic status and small for gestational age (SGA) might be viable targets of interventions to reduce differential risk of SGA by socioeconomic status (socioeconomic SGA inequality) in the metropolitan area of Vancouver, Canada. This study included 59,039 live, singleton births in the Vancouver Census Metropolitan Area (Vancouver) from January 1, 2006 to September 17, 2009. To identify an indicator of socioeconomic SGA inequality, we used hierarchical logistic regression to model SGA by area-level variables from the Canadian census. We then modelled SGA by area-level average income plus established maternal risk factors for SGA and calculated population attributable SGA risk percentages (PAR%) for each variable. Associations of maternal risk factors for SGA with average income were investigated to identify those that might contribute to SGA inequality. Finally, we estimated crude reductions in the percentage and absolute differences in SGA risks between highest and lowest average income quintiles that would result if interventions on maternal risk factors successfully equalized them across income levels or eliminated them altogether. Average income produced the most linear and statistically significant indicator of socioeconomic SGA inequality with 8.9% prevalence of SGA in the lowest income quintile compared to 5.6% in the highest. The adjusted PAR% of SGA for variables were: bottom four quintiles of height (51%), first birth (32%), bottom four quintiles of average income (14%), oligohydramnios (7%), underweight or hypertension, (6% each), smoking (3%) and placental disorder (1%). Shorter height, underweight and smoking during pregnancy had higher prevalence in lower income groups. Crude models assuming equalization of risk factors across income levels or elimination altogether indicated little potential change in relative socioeconomic SGA inequality and reduction

The risk mortality of the population of azerbaijan from circulatory diseases, depending on the season

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A. J. Rzayeva

2015-06-01

Azerbaijan State Advanced Training Institute for doctors named after A. Aliyev, Baku   ABSTRACT The Objective.  To obtain evidence-based data about the role of seasons of the year in the formation of the population mortality risk from the circulatory system diseases  (CSD in Azerbaijan and its regions with specific climate. Materials of the study. A case of mortality was a unit of statistical observation. The fatalities from all reasons, including CSD have been distributed by the days of every month in the year. Daily average amount of fatalities by months and seasons ( from 20 December to 19 March – winter; from 20 March to 19 June- spring; from 20 June to 16 September; from 20 September to 19 December - autumn have been determined. Results.  In Azerbaijan the risk of general mortality and mortality from CSD is the highest in winter, it decreases in spring but nonuniformly (the general mortality rate is less than that from CSD. That is why the share of CSD increases among mortality reasons. Conclusions. Seasonal change of mortality risks from CSD is multivariant. Winter-spring increase of risk predominates in Azerbaijan. In some regions of Azerbaijan the mortality risk from CSD increases only once either in spring or in summer or winter. Key words: seasonal dynamics, risk of mortality, circulatory system diseases.

College's hot topics? Wildfire and Hazards' risk perception among university's population

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Wuerzer, T.

2014-12-01

This research presents a novel perspective on college students and their risk perception in a fire prone US State; Idaho. Idaho was "top #1" in burned lands by acreage in 2012 with approximate 15% of all US burned lands; in 2013 "top #2". Past studies have conducted surveys on residents in high wildfire risk communities to learn what factors make homeowners more likely to engage in mitigation activities and therefore increase communities' resiliency. This research emphasis is on a population that deals with the threat of fire but is likely less invested through property ownership and other investment of risk; yet, equally threatened in quality of life. Are college students the left-out population in the 'planning for wildfires' and its communication process? Main hypothesis is that a college population will have a different perception and awareness (and therefore mitigation actions) than i.e. residents invested in the wild land urban interface (WUI). Dominant research methodologies in past studies are identified as surveys, focus groups, or interviews focusing on homeowners in fire prone areas that have witnessed wildfire or are exposed to increasing fire risk. Yet again, research on population that has no property ownership, investments at stake, and therefore no direct monetary values associated (but potentially non-monetary), is found little to none in these studies. The university population based study and its findings offers a contrast to current literature related to these traditional residents surveys/interviews. The study's survey and interactive spatial assessment of risk perception with allocation of perceived hazards zones promotes understanding of where risk is apparent for participants. Results are used to inform agencies such as campus emergency management, regional wild fire mitigation efforts, and to enhance public communication. Lessons learned include the challenges of a comprehensive inclusion process when mitigating for hazards and building

Type 2 diabetes risk alleles demonstrate extreme directional differentiation among human populations, compared to other diseases.

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Rong Chen

Full Text Available Many disease-susceptible SNPs exhibit significant disparity in ancestral and derived allele frequencies across worldwide populations. While previous studies have examined population differentiation of alleles at specific SNPs, global ethnic patterns of ensembles of disease risk alleles across human diseases are unexamined. To examine these patterns, we manually curated ethnic disease association data from 5,065 papers on human genetic studies representing 1,495 diseases, recording the precise risk alleles and their measured population frequencies and estimated effect sizes. We systematically compared the population frequencies of cross-ethnic risk alleles for each disease across 1,397 individuals from 11 HapMap populations, 1,064 individuals from 53 HGDP populations, and 49 individuals with whole-genome sequences from 10 populations. Type 2 diabetes (T2D demonstrated extreme directional differentiation of risk allele frequencies across human populations, compared with null distributions of European-frequency matched control genomic alleles and risk alleles for other diseases. Most T2D risk alleles share a consistent pattern of decreasing frequencies along human migration into East Asia. Furthermore, we show that these patterns contribute to disparities in predicted genetic risk across 1,397 HapMap individuals, T2D genetic risk being consistently higher for individuals in the African populations and lower in the Asian populations, irrespective of the ethnicity considered in the initial discovery of risk alleles. We observed a similar pattern in the distribution of T2D Genetic Risk Scores, which are associated with an increased risk of developing diabetes in the Diabetes Prevention Program cohort, for the same individuals. This disparity may be attributable to the promotion of energy storage and usage appropriate to environments and inconsistent energy intake. Our results indicate that the differential frequencies of T2D risk alleles may

Estimating radiation risk induced by CT screening for Korean population

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Yang, Won Seok; Yang, Hye Jeong; Min, Byung In

2017-02-01

The purposes of this study are to estimate the radiation risks induced by chest/abdomen computed tomography (CT) screening for healthcare and to determine the cancer risk level of the Korean population compared to other populations. We used an ImPACT CT Patient Dosimetry Calculator to compute the organ effective dose induced by CT screening (chest, low-dose chest, abdomen/pelvis, and chest/abdomen/pelvis CT). A risk model was applied using principles based on the BEIR VII Report in order to estimate the lifetime attributable risk (LAR) using the Korean Life Table 2010. In addition, several countries including Hong Kong, the United States (U.S.), and the United Kingdom, were selected for comparison. Herein, each population exposed radiation dose of 100 mSv was classified according to country, gender and age. For each CT screening the total organ effective dose calculated by ImPACT was 6.2, 1.5, 5.2 and 11.4 mSv, respectively. In the case of Korean female LAR, it was similar to Hong Kong female but lower than those of U.S. and U.K. females, except for those in their twenties. The LAR of Korean males was the highest for all types of CT screening. However, the difference of the risk level was negligible because of the quite low value.

Automatic individual arterial input functions calculated from PCA outperform manual and population-averaged approaches for the pharmacokinetic modeling of DCE-MR images.

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Sanz-Requena, Roberto; Prats-Montalbán, José Manuel; Martí-Bonmatí, Luis; Alberich-Bayarri, Ángel; García-Martí, Gracián; Pérez, Rosario; Ferrer, Alberto

2015-08-01

To introduce a segmentation method to calculate an automatic arterial input function (AIF) based on principal component analysis (PCA) of dynamic contrast enhanced MR (DCE-MR) imaging and compare it with individual manually selected and population-averaged AIFs using calculated pharmacokinetic parameters. The study included 65 individuals with prostate examinations (27 tumors and 38 controls). Manual AIFs were individually extracted and also averaged to obtain a population AIF. Automatic AIFs were individually obtained by applying PCA to volumetric DCE-MR imaging data and finding the highest correlation of the PCs with a reference AIF. Variability was assessed using coefficients of variation and repeated measures tests. The different AIFs were used as inputs to the pharmacokinetic model and correlation coefficients, Bland-Altman plots and analysis of variance tests were obtained to compare the results. Automatic PCA-based AIFs were successfully extracted in all cases. The manual and PCA-based AIFs showed good correlation (r between pharmacokinetic parameters ranging from 0.74 to 0.95), with differences below the manual individual variability (RMSCV up to 27.3%). The population-averaged AIF showed larger differences (r from 0.30 to 0.61). The automatic PCA-based approach minimizes the variability associated to obtaining individual volume-based AIFs in DCE-MR studies of the prostate. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Review of fall risk assessment in geriatric populations using inertial sensors

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2013-01-01

Background Falls are a prevalent issue in the geriatric population and can result in damaging physical and psychological consequences. Fall risk assessment can provide information to enable appropriate interventions for those at risk of falling. Wearable inertial-sensor-based systems can provide quantitative measures indicative of fall risk in the geriatric population. Methods Forty studies that used inertial sensors to evaluate geriatric fall risk were reviewed and pertinent methodological features were extracted; including, sensor placement, derived parameters used to assess fall risk, fall risk classification method, and fall risk classification model outcomes. Results Inertial sensors were placed only on the lower back in the majority of papers (65%). One hundred and thirty distinct variables were assessed, which were categorized as position and angle (7.7%), angular velocity (11.5%), linear acceleration (20%), spatial (3.8%), temporal (23.1%), energy (3.8%), frequency (15.4%), and other (14.6%). Fallers were classified using retrospective fall history (30%), prospective fall occurrence (15%), and clinical assessment (32.5%), with 22.5% using a combination of retrospective fall occurrence and clinical assessments. Half of the studies derived models for fall risk prediction, which reached high levels of accuracy (62-100%), specificity (35-100%), and sensitivity (55-99%). Conclusions Inertial sensors are promising sensors for fall risk assessment. Future studies should identify fallers using prospective techniques and focus on determining the most promising sensor sites, in conjunction with determination of optimally predictive variables. Further research should also attempt to link predictive variables to specific fall risk factors and investigate disease populations that are at high risk of falls. PMID:23927446

Type 2 Diabetes Risk Allele Loci in the Qatari Population.

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Sarah L O'Beirne

Full Text Available The prevalence of type 2 diabetes (T2D is increasing in the Middle East. However, the genetic risk factors for T2D in the Middle Eastern populations are not known, as the majority of studies of genetic risk for T2D are in Europeans and Asians.All subjects were ≥3 generation Qataris. Cases with T2D (n = 1,124 and controls (n = 590 were randomly recruited and assigned to the 3 known Qatari genetic subpopulations [Bedouin (Q1, Persian/South Asian (Q2 and African (Q3]. Subjects underwent genotyping for 37 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs in 29 genes known to be associated with T2D in Europeans and/or Asian populations, and an additional 27 tag SNPs related to these susceptibility loci. Pre-study power analysis suggested that with the known incidence of T2D in adult Qataris (22%, the study population size would be sufficient to detect significant differences if the SNPs were risk factors among Qataris, assuming that the odds ratio (OR for T2D SNPs in Qatari's is greater than or equal to the SNP with highest known OR in other populations.Haplotype analysis demonstrated that Qatari haplotypes in the region of known T2D risk alleles in Q1 and Q2 genetic subpopulations were similar to European haplotypes. After Benjamini-Hochberg adjustment for multiple testing, only two SNPs (rs7903146 and rs4506565, both associated with transcription factor 7-like 2 (TCF7L2, achieved statistical significance in the whole study population. When T2D subjects and control subjects were assigned to the known 3 Qatari subpopulations, and analyzed individually and with the Q1 and Q2 genetic subpopulations combined, one of these SNPs (rs4506565 was also significant in the admixed group. No other SNPs associated with T2D in all Qataris or individual genetic subpopulations.With the caveats of the power analysis, the European/Asian T2D SNPs do not contribute significantly to the high prevalence of T2D in the Qatari population, suggesting that the genetic risks for T2D are

Bayesian Hierarchical Structure for Quantifying Population Variability to Inform Probabilistic Health Risk Assessments.

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Shao, Kan; Allen, Bruce C; Wheeler, Matthew W

2017-10-01

Human variability is a very important factor considered in human health risk assessment for protecting sensitive populations from chemical exposure. Traditionally, to account for this variability, an interhuman uncertainty factor is applied to lower the exposure limit. However, using a fixed uncertainty factor rather than probabilistically accounting for human variability can hardly support probabilistic risk assessment advocated by a number of researchers; new methods are needed to probabilistically quantify human population variability. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to quantify variability among different populations. This approach jointly characterizes the distribution of risk at background exposure and the sensitivity of response to exposure, which are commonly represented by model parameters. We demonstrate, through both an application to real data and a simulation study, that using the proposed hierarchical structure adequately characterizes variability across different populations. © 2016 Society for Risk Analysis.

Living alone, obesity, and smoking increase risk for suicide independently of depressive mood findings from the population-based MONICA/KORA Augsburg cohort study.

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Schneider, Barbara; Lukaschek, Karoline; Baumert, Jens; Meisinger, Christa; Erazo, Natalia; Ladwig, Karl-Heinz

2014-01-01

Suicide is strongly associated with mental disorders, particularly with depression. There is insufficient knowledge to what extent sociodemographic and behavioral characteristics contribute to suicide risk. A population-based cohort study on three independent cross-sectional MONICA/KORA Augsburg surveys with 12,888 subjects (6456 men, 6432 women) was followed up on average for 12.0 years. Information on sociodemographic characteristics, chronic disease conditions, smoking habits, alcohol consumption, depressive symptoms, personality type, and other psychodiagnostic parameters was assessed by standardized interviews. Cox proportional hazards regression analyses were used to compute hazard ratios (HRs) as estimates of relative risks for suicide mortality. Additionally, population-attributable risks were calculated. Within the follow-up period, a total of 1449 persons had died, 38 of them by suicide. Although several variables were associated with increased risk in the basic analyses, only obesity (HR=2.73), smoking (HR=2.23), and living alone (HR=2.19) remained significantly associated with suicide additionally to male sex (HR=3.57) and depressed mood (HR=2.01) in a multivariate analysis. The generalization of our findings to countries with different social, economic or cultural conditions may be questioned. Our findings extend the knowledge about sociodemographic and behavioral risk factors for suicide in the general population: Suicide prevention measures should not consider only subjects with mental disorders but also address other adverse conditions. © 2013 Published by Elsevier B.V.

Growing pains: How risk perception and risk communication research can help to manage the challenges of global population growth.

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Dawson, Ian G J; Johnson, Johnnie E V

2014-08-01

In 2011, the global human population reached 7 billion and medium variant projections indicate that it will exceed 9 billion before 2045. Theoretical and empirical perspectives suggest that this growth could lead to an increase in the likelihood of adverse events (e.g., food shortages, climate change, etc.) and/or the severity of adverse events (e.g., famines, natural disasters, etc.). Several scholars have posited that the size to which the global population grows and the extent to which this growth increases the likelihood of adverse outcomes will largely be shaped by individuals' decisions (in households, organizations, governments, etc.). In light of the strong relationship between perceived risk and decision behaviors, it is surprising that there remains a dearth of empirical research that specifically examines the perceived risks of population growth and how these perceptions might influence related decisions. In an attempt to motivate this important strand of research, this article examines the major risks that may be exacerbated by global population growth and draws upon empirical work concerning the perception and communication of risk to identify potential directions for future research. The article also considers how individuals might perceive both the risks and benefits of population growth and be helped to better understand and address the related issues. The answers to these questions could help humanity better manage the emerging consequences of its continuing success in increasing infant survival and adult longevity. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

Screening effects on thyroid cancer risk estimates for populations affected by the Chernobyl accident

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jacob, P.; Kaiser, J. C.; Vavilov, S.E.; Bogdanova, T.; Tronko, N. D.

2004-01-01

Simulation calculations are performed in order to explore the ecological bias in studies as they are performed with settlement specific data in the aftemath of the Chernobyl accident. Based on methods, that were developed by Lubin for exploring the ecologic bias due to smoking in indoor radon studies of lung cancer, the influence of the introduction of ultrasound devices and enhanced medical surveillance on the detection and reporting of thyroid cancer cases was investigated. Calculations were performed by simulating thyroid doses of one million children in a total of 744 settlements and assuming a linear dependence of the risk on dose and various scenarios of the screening. The dose distributions simulate the distributions similar to those used in previous ecologic studies of the thyroid cancer risk in Ukraine after the Chernobyl accident. The ecologic bias was defined as the ratio of risk coefficients derived from an ecological study to the corresponding risk factor in the underlying risl model. the ecologic bias was estimated for each of the screening scenarios. Analytical equations were derived that allow the exact numerical compuation of the bias which is determined by covariance terms between the increased detection and reporting on one side and thyroid dose values (individual and averaged for the settlements) on the other side. Nested in th epopulation data, a cohort study was simulated with 10 000 individuals and an average thyroid dose of 0.3 Gy. the present study underlines the different scopes of the ecologic and cohort study designs perfomed in the aftermed of the Chernobyl accident. Whereas the ecologic studies give an estimate of the excess thyroid cancer risks per unit dose under the conditions of a health care system as it is typical for the affected countries after the Chernobyl accident, the cohort study gives risk estimates within a well screened cohort. Due to the strong screening effects, excess absoulte risks in the ecological study cohort are

A Bayesian model averaging approach for estimating the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves in 105 U.S. cities.

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Bobb, Jennifer F; Dominici, Francesca; Peng, Roger D

2011-12-01

Estimating the risks heat waves pose to human health is a critical part of assessing the future impact of climate change. In this article, we propose a flexible class of time series models to estimate the relative risk of mortality associated with heat waves and conduct Bayesian model averaging (BMA) to account for the multiplicity of potential models. Applying these methods to data from 105 U.S. cities for the period 1987-2005, we identify those cities having a high posterior probability of increased mortality risk during heat waves, examine the heterogeneity of the posterior distributions of mortality risk across cities, assess sensitivity of the results to the selection of prior distributions, and compare our BMA results to a model selection approach. Our results show that no single model best predicts risk across the majority of cities, and that for some cities heat-wave risk estimation is sensitive to model choice. Although model averaging leads to posterior distributions with increased variance as compared to statistical inference conditional on a model obtained through model selection, we find that the posterior mean of heat wave mortality risk is robust to accounting for model uncertainty over a broad class of models. © 2011, The International Biometric Society.

Terrestrial population models for ecological risk assessment: A state-of-the-art review

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Emlen, J.M.

1989-01-01

Few attempts have been made to formulate models for predicting impacts of xenobiotic chemicals on wildlife populations. However, considerable effort has been invested in wildlife optimal exploitation models. Because death from intoxication has a similar effect on population dynamics as death by harvesting, these management models are applicable to ecological risk assessment. An underlying Leslie-matrix bookkeeping formulation is widely applicable to vertebrate wildlife populations. Unfortunately, however, the various submodels that track birth, death, and dispersal rates as functions of the physical, chemical, and biotic environment are by their nature almost inevitably highly species- and locale-specific. Short-term prediction of one-time chemical applications requires only information on mortality before and after contamination. In such cases a simple matrix formulation may be adequate for risk assessment. But generally, risk must be projected over periods of a generation or more. This precludes generic protocols for risk assessment and also the ready and inexpensive predictions of a chemical's influence on a given population. When designing and applying models for ecological risk assessment at the population level, the endpoints (output) of concern must be carefully and rigorously defined. The most easily accessible and appropriate endpoints are (1) pseudoextinction (the frequency or probability of a population falling below a prespecified density), and (2) temporal mean population density. Spatial and temporal extent of predicted changes must be clearly specified a priori to avoid apparent contradictions and confusion.

Twins less frequent than expected among male births in risk averse populations.

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Karasek, Deborah; Goodman, Julia; Gemmill, Alison; Falconi, April; Hartig, Terry; Magganas, Aristotle; Catalano, Ralph

2015-06-01

Male twin gestations exhibit higher incidence of fetal morbidity and mortality than singleton gestations. From an evolutionary perspective, the relatively high rates of infant and child mortality among male twins born into threatening environments reduce the fitness of these gestations, making them more vulnerable to fetal loss. Women do not perceive choosing to spontaneously abort gestations although the outcome may result from estimates, made without awareness, of the risks of continuing a pregnancy. Here, we examine whether the non-conscious decisional biology of gestation can be linked to conscious risk aversion. We test this speculation by measuring the association between household surveys in Sweden that gauge financial risk aversion in the population and the frequency of twins among live male births. We used time-series regression methods to estimate our suspected associations and Box-Jenkins modeling to ensure that autocorrelation did not confound the estimation or reduce its efficiency. We found, consistent with theory, that financial risk aversion in the population correlates inversely with the odds of a twin among Swedish males born two months later. The odds of a twin among males fell by approximately 3.5% two months after unexpectedly great risk aversion in the population. This work implies that shocks that affect population risk aversion carry implications for fetal loss in vulnerable twin pregnancies.

Familial risk of epilepsy: a population-based study

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Peljto, Anna L.; Barker-Cummings, Christie; Vasoli, Vincent M.; Leibson, Cynthia L.; Hauser, W. Allen; Buchhalter, Jeffrey R.

2014-01-01

Almost all previous studies of familial risk of epilepsy have had potentially serious methodological limitations. Our goal was to address these limitations and provide more rigorous estimates of familial risk in a population-based study. We used the unique resources of the Rochester Epidemiology Project to identify all 660 Rochester, Minnesota residents born in 1920 or later with incidence of epilepsy from 1935–94 (probands) and their 2439 first-degree relatives who resided in Olmsted County. We assessed incidence of epilepsy in relatives by comprehensive review of the relatives’ medical records, and estimated age-specific cumulative incidence and standardized incidence ratios for epilepsy in relatives compared with the general population, according to proband and relative characteristics. Among relatives of all probands, cumulative incidence of epilepsy to age 40 was 4.7%, and risk was increased 3.3-fold (95% confidence interval 2.75–5.99) compared with population incidence. Risk was increased to the greatest extent in relatives of probands with idiopathic generalized epilepsies (standardized incidence ratio 6.0) and epilepsies associated with intellectual or motor disability presumed present from birth, which we denoted ‘prenatal/developmental cause’ (standardized incidence ratio 4.3). Among relatives of probands with epilepsy without identified cause (including epilepsies classified as ‘idiopathic’ or ‘unknown cause’), risk was significantly increased for epilepsy of prenatal/developmental cause (standardized incidence ratio 4.1). Similarly, among relatives of probands with prenatal/developmental cause, risk was significantly increased for epilepsies without identified cause (standardized incidence ratio 3.8). In relatives of probands with generalized epilepsy, standardized incidence ratios were 8.3 (95% confidence interval 2.93–15.31) for generalized epilepsy and 2.5 (95% confidence interval 0.92–4.00) for focal epilepsy. In relatives of

Plutonium in the environment: individual and population risk

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burley, G.

1980-01-01

This paper outlines the rationales for protection of individuals and populations and indicates the experience of the Environmental Protection Agency with development of radiation protection guidance for persons exposed to plutonium in the environment. Criteria for minimization of risk and rationales for protection are obviously interrelated and serve the same objective. There are, however, several different types of rationales for protection. The first category of rationales for protection is that of engineering criteria, which vary in level of stringency. A second category of rationales of protection is that based on risk, both absolute and relative. For radioactive materials, these rationales are based primarily on complex correlations of absorbed dose and adverse health effects. The last category of rationales of protection comprises judgments concerned with the larger perspective of societal impacts. This perspective includes the balancing of the costs and benefits of an activity, especially from the broader viewpoint of its impact on the population as a whole. The risks associated with transuranium elements in the environment are reasonably well understood and can be assessed on a quantitative basis, but the question of balancing them against their benefits to society may be much more difficult

“Is it Safe?” Risk Perception and Drinking Water in a Vulnerable Population

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Nicholas Spence

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Access to safe drinking water is a pressing social policy issue globally. Despite the milestones reached in this area of Canadian public health, marginalized and vulnerable populations, including those founded on racialized identity, such as First Nations, continue to be plagued by accessibility issues. This work sheds new perspective on the issue, arguing for a research and policy focus that is inclusive of risk perception. A model of risk perception of drinking water is developed and tested for First Nations on reserve in Canada using the 2001 Aboriginal Peoples Survey. It is shown that the analytical use of racialized identity advances understanding of risk perception and the environment (water. Moreover, a large degree of heterogeneity within the First Nation population across a number of social determinants of risk perception illustrates the shortcomings of framing the issue in a simplistic manner (First Nation population versus general population. Implications for risk research, including risk communication & management, and policy are provided.

Prophylactic ketoconazole shampoo for tinea capitis in a high-risk pediatric population.

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Bookstaver, P Brandon; Watson, Holly J; Winters, Shauna D; Carlson, Adrian L; Schulz, Richard M

2011-07-01

Although topical agents for the treatment of tinea capitis decrease viable fungal elements and reduce shedding, their use as a prophylactic agent has not been investigated. This study evaluated the effectiveness of a prophylactic ketoconazole shampoo (Nizoral 2%) protocol to reduce the number of clinically evident tinea capitis infections in a high-risk African American, urban population. We conducted a retrospective analysis of a ketoconazole prophylaxis protocol that was implemented at an urban pediatric clinic for medically fragile children. Patients at high risk for tinea capitis received twice-weekly ketoconazole shampoo. The primary outcome of the study was a reduction in the number of documented tinea capitis infections between the 12-month preprotocol and 12-month postprotocol periods. A secondary outcome included the evaluation of predisposing risk factors for acquiring tinea infections. Ninety-seven patients, with a mean age of 8.06 years, were included. Most patients (78%) were African American. There were a total of 13 tinea capitis infections during the 12-month preprotocol period. During the 12-month postprotocol period, 41 infections were documented: 37 (90.2%) in the prophylaxis group and 4 (9.8%) in the nonprophylaxis group. The average numbers of per-patient infections in the postprotocol period were 0.79 and 0.08 in the prophylaxis and nonprophylaxis groups, respectively. Initiation of prophylaxis did not reduce tinea capitis infections (p=NS). Previous history of infection and a high level of care were significant predictors of infections (pshampoo) prophylaxis protocol.

Chagas Disease Knowledge and Risk Behaviors of the Homeless Population in Houston, TX.

Science.gov (United States)

Ingber, Alexandra; Garcia, Melissa N; Leon, Juan; Murray, Kristy O

2018-04-01

Chagas disease is a parasitic infection, caused by Trypanosoma cruzi, endemic in Latin America. Sylvatic T. cruzi-infected triatomine vectors are present in rural and urban areas in the southern USA and may transmit T. cruzi infection to at-risk populations, such as homeless individuals. Our study aimed to evaluate Chagas disease knowledge and behaviors potentially associated with transmission risk of Chagas disease among Houston, Texas' homeless population by performing interviews with 212 homeless individuals. The majority of the 212 surveyed homeless individuals were male (79%), African-American (43%), American-born individuals (96%). About 30% of the individuals reported having seen triatomines in Houston, and 25% had evidence of blood-borne transmission risk (IV drug use and/or unregulated tattoos). The median total time homeless was significantly associated with recognition of the triatomine vector. Our survey responses indicate that the homeless populations may exhibit potential risks for Chagas disease, due to increased vector exposure, and participation in blood-borne pathogen risk behaviors. Our findings warrant additional research to quantify the prevalence of Chagas disease among homeless populations.

RISK FACTORS ASSOCIATED WITH CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE IN PRISON POPULATION

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Ricardo Soares de OliveiraI

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This work aimed to make a reflection about the risk factors associated with cardiovascular disease in the prison population, as well as the performance of the health care team in these spaces. It is a reflective approach, literature that included e-journal articles, published in the year 2003 to 2011, indexed at LILACS, Scielo, MEDLINE, and available in full. Textbooks were also consulted and ordinances of Ministry of health and Justice of Brazil. Used the descriptors "risk factors," "cardiovascular disease" and "Prisoners". It was noted that the current situation of overcrowding in prisons is, with unhealthy environment, which imposes risks the health of prisoners. The living habits, such as use of alcohol and drugs (cocaine, marijuana, tranquillizers and tobacco, increases the risk for cardiovascular disease. In addition, the authors emphasize, a priori, the low level of schooling of the detainees. The performance of the health care team must be based on educational practices for promoting and monitoring the health, with multidisciplinary support. Further studies need to be done in order to investigate the incidence of cardiovascular diseases, as well as evidence of the effectiveness of health care for this population.

Trends in high-risk sexual behaviors among general population groups in China: a systematic review.

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Cai, Rui; Richardus, Jan Hendrik; Looman, Caspar W N; de Vlas, Sake J

2013-01-01

The objective of this review was to investigate whether Chinese population groups that do not belong to classical high risk groups show an increasing trend of engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We systematically searched the English and Chinese literature on sexual risk behaviors published between January 1980 and March 2012 in PubMed and the China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI). We included observational studies that focused on population groups other than commercial sex workers (CSWs) and their clients, and men who have sex with men (MSM) and quantitatively reported one of the following indicators of recent high-risk sexual behavior: premarital sex, commercial sex, multiple sex partners, condom use or sexually transmitted infections (STIs). We used generalized linear mixed model to examine the time trend in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors. We included 174 observational studies involving 932,931 participants: 55 studies reported on floating populations, 73 on college students and 46 on other groups (i.e. out-of-school youth, rural residents, and subjects from gynecological or obstetric clinics and premarital check-up centers). From the generalized linear mixed model, no significant trends in engaging in high-risk sexual behaviors were identified in the three population groups. Sexual risk behaviors among certain general population groups have not increased substantially. These groups are therefore unlikely to incite a STI/HIV epidemic among the general Chinese population. Because the studied population groups are not necessarily representative of the general population, the outcomes found may not reflect those of the general population.

Seroprevalence of Leptospira antibodies among populations at risk

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Abdul-Baki Abdullah Al-Robasi

2015-03-01

Full Text Available Objective: This study was performed to assess the Leptospira IgG antibodies seroprevalence among populations at risk in Hodeida Governorate, Yemen. Methods: A total of 200 subjects (136 males and 64 females participated in this study during June and December 2012.They represented 10 sewage workers, 22 butchers, 16 construction workers, 108 agriculture workers, 20 hospital sanitary workers and 24 blood donors. Predesigned questionnaires and consent were taken from each individual. Blood samples were collected from subjects, and the sera were tested by ELISA to detect the presence of leptospira IgG antibodies. The possible related factors for seropositivity were evaluated. Results: Leptospira IgG antibodies were found positive in 42% of the participants. The highest seroprevalence level was detected in sewage workers (80%, followed by hospital sanitary workers (60%, construction workers (37.5% and farmers (37%. The lowest of antibodies was in butchers (36.4%. Seroprevalence among blood donors was 25% which was comparatively less than of the populations at risk. Seropositivity of Leptospira IgG antibodies was found higher among males than females (42.6% vs. 34.4%. The highest Leptospira antibodies seropositivity was among elderly participants (81.8%. The seropositivity of antibodies in population live in rural and urban areas was not significant differences. As for closely contacting with animals, the highest antibodies were discovered in people who had goats (80% and sheep (60.9%. Conclusion: Individuals engaged in risk activities are often exposed to leptospiral infection. Therefore, control and prevention policy toward these people are necessary. J Microbiol Infect Dis 2015;5(1: 1-4

Radiation risk perception: a discrepancy between the experts and the general population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perko, Tanja

2014-01-01

Determining the differences in the perception of risks between experts who are regularly exposed to radiation, and lay people provides important insights into how potential hazards may be effectively communicated to the public. In the present study we examined lay people's (N = 1020) and experts' (N = 332) perception of five different radiological risks: nuclear waste, medical x-rays, natural radiation, an accident at a nuclear installation in general, and the Fukushima accident in particular. In order to link risk perception with risk communication, media reporting about radiation risks is analysed using quantitative and qualitative content analyses. The results showed that experts perceive radiological risks differently from the general public. Experts' perception of medical X-rays and natural radiation is significantly higher than in general population, while for nuclear waste and an accident at a nuclear installation, experts have lower risk perception than the general population. In-depth research is conducted for a group of workers that received an effective dose higher than 0.5 mSv in the year before the study; for this group we identify predictors of risk perception. The results clearly show that mass media don't use the same language as technical experts in addressing radiological risks. The study demonstrates that the discrepancy in risk perception and the communication gap between the experts and the general population presents a big challenge in understanding each other

Risk and protective factors for chronic diseases in adults: a population-based study

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Danielle Cristina Guimarães da Silva

Full Text Available Abstract The article describes the relative frequency ok of risk and protective behaviors for chronic non-communicable diseases (NCDs in adults residing in Viçosa, Brazil. A cross-section-al population-based study including 1,226 adults living in the municipality. We used a structured questionnaire containing questions sociodemographic and behavioral The risk and protection factors evaluated were: smoking, physical activity, excessive consumption of alcohol and food consumption. The proportion of risk and protection factors was calculated in the total population, according to gender, education and socioeconomic status. The studied population has a high frequency of risk factors for NCDs, such as excessive consumption of alcoholic beverages, habit of consuming whole milk, habit of eating meat with visible fat, regular consumption of soft drinks and 78.5% did not achieve the minimum recommendation for physical activity in leisure time. With regard to protective factors, 86.2% of the population reported regular consumption of fruits and vegetables, and 73%, of beans. It was found the highest frequency of risk factors in among males, in younger people and middle socioeconomic status. This population has an urgent need for public policy of municipal planning to change this current scenario.

A spatially-evaluated methodology for assessing risk to a population from contaminated land

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gay, J. Rebecca; Korre, Anna

2006-01-01

A methodology is proposed which combines quantitative probabilistic human health risk assessment and spatial statistical methods (geostatistics) to produce an assessment of risks to human health from exposure to contaminated land, in a manner which preserves the spatial distribution of risks and provides a measure of uncertainty in the assessment. Maps of soil contaminant levels, which incorporate uncertainty, are produced from sparse sample data using sequential indicator simulation. A real, age-stratified population is mapped across the contaminated area, and intake of soil contaminants by individuals is calculated probabilistically using an adaptation of the Contaminated Land Exposure Assessment (CLEA) model. An abundance of information is contained in results which can be interrogated at the population and individual level, and mapped to provide a powerful visual tool for risk managers, enabling efficient targeting of risk reduction measures to different locations. - A methodology for calculating and mapping risks to a population from intake of soil contaminants

Prevalence and pattern of cardiovascular risk factors in a population in India.

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Khetan, Aditya; Zullo, Melissa; Hejjaji, Vittal; Barbhaya, Dweep; Agarwal, Sushil; Gupta, Rishab; Madan Mohan, Sri Krishna; Josephson, Richard

2017-01-01

Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of mortality in India. Since it is largely driven by risk factors such as hypertension, diabetes and smoking, it is important to study the treatment cascade for these conditions and identify areas for improvement. This is a cross-sectional study from Project SEHAT (Study to Enhance Heart Associated Treatments), an ongoing cluster randomised controlled trial testing the hypothesis that a community health worker-led intervention can improve the control of cardiovascular risk factors in a community in West Bengal, India. For the baseline data, 3556 adults, between the ages of 35 and 70, were screened for hypertension, diabetes and smoking. For hypertension and diabetes, an elevated reading was confirmed on a repeat visit. 18.3% (n=650), 9.0% (n=317) and 14.1% (n=500) of adults were diagnosed with hypertension, diabetes and smoking, respectively. Overall, 35.0% (n=1242) adults had at least one of the three risk factors. 55.1% (n=358) of participants with hypertension and 40.4% (n=128) of participants with diabetes were unaware of their respective condition. 36.6% (n=238) of those with hypertension and 58.0% (n=184) of diabetics were on treatment. 8.2% (n=53) hypertensives were controlled (blood pressure <140/90 mm Hg) while 13.6% (n=43) diabetics were controlled (defined as fasting blood sugar <126 mg/dL). Less than 1% diabetics were on insulin, and average number of medications for a patient with hypertension was 1.2. In our population in semiurban India, one in three adults have a major cardiovascular risk factor, with low control rates. There is a large burden of undiagnosed cardiovascular risk factors and a large gap between treatment and control, which may be explained by lack of treatment intensification.

Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina.

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Navoni, J A; De Pietri, D; Olmos, V; Gimenez, C; Bovi Mitre, G; de Titto, E; Villaamil Lepori, E C

2014-11-15

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10(-5) and 2,1·10(-2). An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Early Clinical Outcomes Demonstrate Preserved Cognitive Function in Children With Average-Risk Medulloblastoma When Treated With Hyperfractionated Radiation Therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gupta, Tejpal; Jalali, Rakesh; Goswami, Savita; Nair, Vimoj; Moiyadi, Aliasgar; Epari, Sridhar; Sarin, Rajiv

2012-01-01

Purpose: To report on acute toxicity, longitudinal cognitive function, and early clinical outcomes in children with average-risk medulloblastoma. Methods and Materials: Twenty children ≥5 years of age classified as having average-risk medulloblastoma were accrued on a prospective protocol of hyperfractionated radiation therapy (HFRT) alone. Radiotherapy was delivered with two daily fractions (1 Gy/fraction, 6 to 8 hours apart, 5 days/week), initially to the neuraxis (36 Gy/36 fractions), followed by conformal tumor bed boost (32 Gy/32 fractions) for a total tumor bed dose of 68 Gy/68 fractions over 6 to 7 weeks. Cognitive function was prospectively assessed longitudinally (pretreatment and at specified posttreatment follow-up visits) with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children to give verbal quotient, performance quotient, and full-scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ). Results: The median age of the study cohort was 8 years (range, 5–14 years), representing a slightly older cohort. Acute hematologic toxicity was mild and self-limiting. Eight (40%) children had subnormal intelligence (FSIQ <85), including 3 (15%) with mild mental retardation (FSIQ 56–70) even before radiotherapy. Cognitive functioning for all tested domains was preserved in children evaluable at 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years after completion of HFRT, with no significant decline over time. Age at diagnosis or baseline FSIQ did not have a significant impact on longitudinal cognitive function. At a median follow-up time of 33 months (range, 16–58 months), 3 patients had died (2 of relapse and 1 of accidental burns), resulting in 3-year relapse-free survival and overall survival of 83.5% and 83.2%, respectively. Conclusion: HFRT without upfront chemotherapy has an acceptable acute toxicity profile, without an unduly increased risk of relapse, with preserved cognitive functioning in children with average-risk medulloblastoma.

Early Clinical Outcomes Demonstrate Preserved Cognitive Function in Children With Average-Risk Medulloblastoma When Treated With Hyperfractionated Radiation Therapy

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Gupta, Tejpal, E-mail: tejpalgupta@rediffmail.com [Department of Radiation Oncology, Advanced Centre for Treatment Research and Education in Cancer and Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Jalali, Rakesh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Advanced Centre for Treatment Research and Education in Cancer and Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Goswami, Savita [Department of Clinical Psychology and Psychiatry Unit, Advanced Centre for Treatment Research and Education in Cancer and Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Nair, Vimoj [Department of Radiation Oncology, Advanced Centre for Treatment Research and Education in Cancer and Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Moiyadi, Aliasgar [Division of Neuro-Surgery, Department of Surgical Oncology, Advanced Centre for Treatment Research and Education in Cancer and Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Epari, Sridhar [Department of Pathology, Advanced Centre for Treatment Research and Education in Cancer and Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Sarin, Rajiv [Department of Radiation Oncology, Advanced Centre for Treatment Research and Education in Cancer and Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India)

2012-08-01

Purpose: To report on acute toxicity, longitudinal cognitive function, and early clinical outcomes in children with average-risk medulloblastoma. Methods and Materials: Twenty children {>=}5 years of age classified as having average-risk medulloblastoma were accrued on a prospective protocol of hyperfractionated radiation therapy (HFRT) alone. Radiotherapy was delivered with two daily fractions (1 Gy/fraction, 6 to 8 hours apart, 5 days/week), initially to the neuraxis (36 Gy/36 fractions), followed by conformal tumor bed boost (32 Gy/32 fractions) for a total tumor bed dose of 68 Gy/68 fractions over 6 to 7 weeks. Cognitive function was prospectively assessed longitudinally (pretreatment and at specified posttreatment follow-up visits) with the Wechsler Intelligence Scale for Children to give verbal quotient, performance quotient, and full-scale intelligence quotient (FSIQ). Results: The median age of the study cohort was 8 years (range, 5-14 years), representing a slightly older cohort. Acute hematologic toxicity was mild and self-limiting. Eight (40%) children had subnormal intelligence (FSIQ <85), including 3 (15%) with mild mental retardation (FSIQ 56-70) even before radiotherapy. Cognitive functioning for all tested domains was preserved in children evaluable at 3 months, 1 year, and 2 years after completion of HFRT, with no significant decline over time. Age at diagnosis or baseline FSIQ did not have a significant impact on longitudinal cognitive function. At a median follow-up time of 33 months (range, 16-58 months), 3 patients had died (2 of relapse and 1 of accidental burns), resulting in 3-year relapse-free survival and overall survival of 83.5% and 83.2%, respectively. Conclusion: HFRT without upfront chemotherapy has an acceptable acute toxicity profile, without an unduly increased risk of relapse, with preserved cognitive functioning in children with average-risk medulloblastoma.

How does the average Belgian view nuclear technology? Barometer assesses knowledge and risk perception

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turcanu, C.; Perko, T.

2011-01-01

Irrespective of the choices made in the future, questions about nuclear safety, radiation protection and waste management will always be of topical interest. SCK-CEN has consciously opted for social research on risk perception, sustainable development, and communication. SCK-CEN founded the Barometer in 2002 in order to keep both feet firmly planted in society: a regular, large-scale survey amongst the Belgian population on radiation and nuclear technology. The findings of the third edition were published in 2010.

An Epidemiological Study of Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease and Related Risk Factors in Urban Population of Mashhad, Iran

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Vossoughinia, Hassan; Salari, Masoumeh; Mokhtari Amirmajdi, Elham; Saadatnia, Hassan; Abedini, Siavash; Shariati, Alireza; Shariati, Mohammadjavad; Khosravi Khorashad, Ahmad

2014-01-01

Background: Gastroesophageal Reflux Disease (GERD) is a chronic and common disease, which is characterized by heartburn and regurgitation. In the last couple of decades, GERD has received much attention and studies have shown an increase in its prevalence. Although there have been a few studies on the prevalence of GERD in Iran, no study has yet been done in the northeastern part of the country. The aim of our study was to evaluate the prevalence of GERD and its risk factors in a population from Mashhad. Objectives: To evaluate the epidemiology of GERD based on a population study in Mashhad. Patients and Methods: This was a cross sectional descriptive study conducted in 2010. In total, 2500 participants were selected based on cluster sampling. Modified and validated Mayo Clinic questionnaire for GERD was used for data collection. Overall, 1685 questionnaires were retrieved. Fifty-one participants were excluded because of pregnancies, history of abdominal surgery and being less than 18 years old. We analyzed data using the SPSS software version 16. Prevalence of GERD and significant risk factors (P value < 0.05) were determined. Results: In total, 420 participants (25.7%) had GERD symptoms. Risk factors with significant effects consisted of smoking, consumption of non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NASIDs), overeating, chronic diseases, tea and coffee consumption and GERD in spouse. Conclusions: The prevalence of GERD among people living in Mashhad was above the average prevalence in other cities of Iran. However, risk factors seemed to be similar to those reported by other studies. PMID:25763231

Population attributable risk of breast cancer in white women associated with immediately modifiable risk factors

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Glaser Sally L

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Estrogen/progestin replacement therapy (EPRT, alcohol consumption, physical activity, and breast-feeding duration differ from other factors associated with breast cancer in being immediately modifiable by the individual, thereby representing attractive targets for future breast cancer prevention efforts. To justify such efforts, it is vital to quantify the potential population-level impacts on breast cancer considering population variations in behavior prevalence, risk estimate, and baseline incidence. Methods For each of these four factors, we calculated population attributable risk percents (PARs using population-based survey (2001 and cancer registry data (1998–2002 for 41 subpopulations of white, non-Hispanic California women aged 40–79 years, and ranges of relative risk (RR estimates from the literature. Results Using a single RR estimate, subpopulation PARs ranged from 2.5% to 5.6% for hormone use, from 0.0% to 6.1% for recent consumption of >= 2 alcoholic drinks daily, and 4.6% to 11.0% for physical inactivity. Using a range of RR estimates, PARs were 2–11% for EPRT use, 1–20% for alcohol consumption and 2–15% for physical inactivity. Subpopulation data were unavailable for breastfeeding, but PARs using published RR estimates ranged from 2% to 11% for lifetime breastfeeding >= 31 months. Thus, of 13,019 breast cancers diagnosed annually in California, as many as 1,432 attributable to EPRT use, 2,604 attributable to alcohol consumption, 1,953 attributable to physical inactivity, and 1,432 attributable to never breastfeeding might be avoidable. Conclusion The relatively feasible lifestyle changes of discontinuing EPRT use, reducing alcohol consumption, increasing physical activity, and lengthening breastfeeding duration could lower population breast cancer incidence substantially.

Occupational risk and chronic kidney disease: a population-based study in the United States adult population.

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Rubinstein, Sofia; Wang, Chengwei; Qu, Wenchun

2013-01-01

Previous studies on occupational risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD) have analyzed a limited range of occupations and focused on nephrotoxins. The primary purpose of this study was to examine the relative risk for the occurrence of CKD between different occupations in the US adult population. This was a population-based survey study of 91,340 participants in the US, who completed the National Health Interview Survey, 2004 through 2008. The outcome variable, CKD, was defined as having weakening/failing kidneys in the past 12 months, as diagnosed by a physician. The predictor variable, occupation, was obtained using the census occupational codes, regrouped according to North American Industrial Classification System. After controlling for age, gender, hypertension, and education, and with the category Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations as a reference group, the likelihood of developing CKD was 4.3 times higher in respondents working in Building, Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations, 4.4 times higher in Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, 4.7 times higher in Transportation and Material Moving Occupations and in Computer and Mathematical Occupations, 4.8 times higher in Production Occupations, 5.3 times higher in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations, and 6.1 times higher in Healthcare Support Occupations and in Legal Occupations. This study identified occupation groups in US adult population with increased risk for CKD. Alleviation of workplace stress is suggested as a goal for behavioral intervention in high-risk occupations.

Mercury levels in defined Italian population groups

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ingrao, G.; Belloni, P.

1992-01-01

The consumption of fish and seafood usually is the main source of intake of methylmercury for members of the general population. Therefore subjects having a diet rich in these food items present a high risk of exceeding the tolerable recommended weekly intake of mercury set by FAO and WHO. The average consumption of fish at a national level is rather small in Italy, 12.5 kg per year, consequently the risk of exposure to elevated levels of mercury through the diet for members of the Italian general population is rather negligible. However, fish is one of the main components of the diet of some population groups. These groups are usually found in coastal towns close fishing ports and include subjects working as fishermen, fish dealers, restaurant workers and their families. The purpose of this research programme, carried our with the collaboration of the National Institute of Nutrition is to determine the levels of mercury and methylmercury in hair samples of subjects having a higher than average fish consumption and to evaluate the effects of elevated intakes of mercury. 1 ref., 13 figs

Increased risk of chronic liver disease in patients with bipolar disorder: A population-based study.

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Hsu, Jer-Hwa; Chien, I-Chia; Lin, Ching-Heng

2016-01-01

This study aimed to investigate the prevalence and incidence of chronic liver disease in patients with bipolar disorder. We used a random sample of 766,427 subjects aged ≥18 years from the National Health Research Institute database in the year 2005. Subjects with at least one primary diagnosis of bipolar disorder in 2005 were identified. Patients with a primary or secondary diagnosis of chronic liver disease were also defined. We compared the prevalence and associated factors of chronic liver disease between patients with bipolar disorder and the general population in 2005. We also compared the incidence of chronic liver disease in patients with bipolar disorder and the general population from 2006 to 2010. The prevalence of chronic liver disease in patients with bipolar disorder (13.9%) was 2.68 times higher than that of the general population (5.8%) in 2005. The average annual incidence of chronic liver disease in patients with bipolar disorder from 2006 to 2010 was also higher than that of the general population (2.95% vs. 1.73%; risk ratio: 1.71; 95% confidence interval: 1.46-2.01). Patients with bipolar disorder had a significantly higher prevalence and incidence of chronic liver disease than those in the general population, and younger patients with bipolar disorder have a much higher prevalence and incidence than those in the general population. Male sex, second-generation antipsychotic or antidepressant use, and hyperlipidemia were associated factors for chronic liver disease in patients with bipolar disorder. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Colorectal cancer: screening double-contrast barium enema examination in average-risk adults older than 50 years.

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Kung, Justin W; Levine, Marc S; Glick, Seth N; Lakhani, Paras; Rubesin, Stephen E; Laufer, Igor

2006-09-01

To retrospectively determine the diagnostic yield of double-contrast barium enema examinations performed for colorectal cancer screening of neoplasms 1 cm or larger or advanced neoplastic lesions of any size in average-risk adults older than 50 years. The Institutional Review Board at the affiliated Veterans Affairs Medical Center approved this HIPAA-compliant study protocol and did not require informed consent from patients. Computerized databases revealed 276 double-contrast barium enema examinations performed for colorectal cancer screening in average-risk adults older than 50 years. Radiographic and pathologic reports were reviewed to determine the number of patients who had polypoid lesions 1 cm or larger, polyps smaller than 1 cm, or advanced neoplastic lesions of any size. Forty-five (16.3%) of the 276 patients underwent follow-up sigmoidoscopy or colonoscopy. Medical, endoscopic, and pathologic records were reviewed and compared with radiographic findings. The results of double-contrast barium enema examination revealed 74 (26.8%) of 276 patients with 104 polypoid lesions in the colon, including 32 patients (11.6%) with 41 polypoid lesions 1 cm or larger, 15 patients (5.4%) with 19 polyps 6-9 mm, and 27 patients (9.8%) with 44 polyps 5 mm or smaller. Endoscopy was performed in 24 (75%) of 32 patients, the results of which confirmed 23 (72%) of 32 radiographically diagnosed lesions 1 cm or larger in 16 (67%) of 24 patients. In two of these individuals, the polyps were hyperplastic. The remaining 14 patients had a total of 21 neoplastic lesions 1 cm or larger, including 11 tubular adenomas, seven tubulovillous adenomas, one villous adenoma with marked dysplasia, and two cancers. The diagnostic yield of screening double-contrast barium enema examination was 5.1% (14 of 276 patients) for neoplastic lesions 1 cm or larger and 6.2% (17 of 276 patients) for advanced neoplastic lesions of any size. Double-contrast barium enema examinations performed in average-risk

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; van der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J. G.; Kastelein, John J. P.; Amarenco, Pierre; LaRosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J. M.; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; de Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L. J.

2016-01-01

Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and residual

Distribution of Estimated 10-Year Risk of Recurrent Vascular Events and Residual Risk in a Secondary Prevention Population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaasenbrood, Lotte; Boekholdt, S. Matthijs; Van Der Graaf, Yolanda; Ray, Kausik K.; Peters, Ron J G; Kastelein, John J P; Amarenco, Pierre; Larosa, John C.; Cramer, Maarten J M; Westerink, Jan; Kappelle, L. Jaap; De Borst, Gert J.; Visseren, Frank L J

2016-01-01

Background: Among patients with clinically manifest vascular disease, the risk of recurrent vascular events is likely to vary. We assessed the distribution of estimated 10-year risk of recurrent vascular events in a secondary prevention population. We also estimated the potential risk reduction and

Vulnerability Risk Index Profile for Elder Abuse in Community-Dwelling Population

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Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa A.

2013-01-01

Objectives Elder abuse is associated with increased morbidity and mortality. This study aims to develop a vulnerability index for elder abuse in a community-dwelling population. Design Population-based study Setting Geographically defined community in Chicago. Participants A population-based study was conducted in Chicago of community-dwelling older adults who participated in the Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP). Of the 8,157 participants in the CHAP study, 213 participants were reported to social services agency for suspected elder abuse. Measurements A vulnerability index for elder abuse was constructed from sociodemographic, health-related, and psychosocial factors. The outcomes of interest were reported and confirmed elder abuse. Logistic regression models were used to determine the accuracy of the index with respect to elder abuse outcomes. Results Out of the selected risk index for elder abuse, every one point increase in the 9 item vulnerability index items, there was a two fold increase in the risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (2.00–2.40) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 2.19 (1.94–2.47). Compared to the reference group, older adults with 3–4 vulnerability index items had increased risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 2.98 (1.98–4.49) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 3.90, (2.07–7.36); and older adults with 5 or more risk index items, there was an 18 fold increase in risk for reported elder abuse (OR, 18.46 (12.15–28.04) and confirmed elder abuse (OR, 26.79 (14.18–50.61). Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) statistically derived curves for identifying reported elder abuse ranged between 0.77–0.84 and for predicting confirmed elder abuse ranged between 0.79–0.86. Conclusion The vulnerability risk index demonstrates value for identifying individuals at risk for elder abuse. Additional studies are needed to validate this index in other community dwelling populations. PMID:25180376

Risk of Dementia Associated with Elevated Plasma Homocysteine in a Latin American Population

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Inara J. Chacón

2009-01-01

Full Text Available The relationship between total homocysteine (tHcy and dementia risk remains controversial, as the association varies among populations and dementia subtypes. We studied a Venezuelan population that has high prevalence of both elevated tHcy and dementia. We tested the hypotheses that (1 elevated tHcy is associated with increased dementia risk, (2 the risk is greater for vascular dementia (VaD than for Alzheimer's disease (AD, and (3 a history of stroke may partly explain this association. 2100 participants (≥55 years old of the Maracaibo Aging Study underwent standardized neurological, neuropsychiatric, and cardiovascular assessments. Elevated tHcy was significantly associated with dementia, primarily VaD. When history of stroke and other confounding factors were taken into account, elevated tHcy remained a significant risk factor in older (>66 years, but not in younger (55–66 years subjects. Ongoing studies of this population may provide insight into the mechanism by which tHcy increases risk for dementia.

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

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DeFranco, Emily A; Lian, Min; Muglia, Louis A; Schootman, Mario

2008-01-01

Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997). We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990). Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty) was the reference group. Results PTB rate of PTB poverty and increased through the 4th quartile (4.9%), p poverty was significantly associated with PTB risk. PTB risk (poverty, adjusted odds ratio (adjOR) 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35), with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies. PMID:18793437

[Perception of cardiovascular risk in an outpatient population of the Madrid Community].

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez-Manchón, D; Álvarez-García, G M; González-López, E

2015-01-01

Cardiovascular diseases are responsible for the largest burden of global mortality. The study of the degree of knowledge of their population risk factors and cardiovascular risk is a priority preventive strategy. A cross-sectional study with 369 people was performed. The sociodemographic variables were cardiovascular risk and perception as well as physical and anthropometric factors. The risk was stratified with the SCORE table. A total of 49.6% were men and 50.4% were women. The proportion of diagnosis was 23.8% in HTA, 39% in hypercholesterolemia, 31.4% in smoking, 26.3% in obesity and 4.6% in diabetes. Concordance between perceived and real cardiovascular risk was very weak. The population has good knowledge about diabetes and acceptable knowledge about hypertension, and hypercholesterolemia but knowledge in prediabetic states and perception of the associated cardiovascular risk is low. Copyright © 2014 SEHLELHA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Dietary and lifestyle risk factors for noncommunicable disease among the Mongolian population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bolormaa, Norov; Narantuya, Luvsanbazar; de Courten, Maximilian

2008-01-01

The overall aim is to determine the prevalence of lifestyle related risk factors for noncommunicable disease (NCD) in Mongolia. The prevalence of NCD risk factors was survey in among 15-64 years old population, using the World Health Organization (WHO) STEPwise approach for NCD surveillance...... blood pressure. In regard to body mass index risk categories, 31.6% (+/- 0.1 CI) of the population aged 15-64 years was overweight and obese. The prevalence of people with impaired fasting glucose (IFG) and elevated blood cholesterol level were 12.5% (+/- 0.05 CI) and 7.0% (+/- 0.01 CI) among 25...

Negotiating new literacies in science: An examination of at-risk and average-achieving ninth-grade readers' online reading comprehension strategies

Science.gov (United States)

Sevensma, Kara

In today's digital world the Internet is becoming an increasingly predominant resource for science information, rapidly eclipsing the traditional science textbook in content area classrooms (Lawless & Schrader, 2008). The shift challenges researchers, educators, administrators, and policy makers to reconsider what it means to read and comprehend online science information. The research on digital literacy is still in its infancy and little is known about the strategies and processes students use when reading science content on the Internet. Even less is known about how at-risk readers comprehend digital science content. Therefore, this study addresses three research questions: (1) What strategies and processes do at-risk and average-achieving readers use as they locate information and generate meaning from science websites? (2) What navigational profiles emerge as at-risk and average-achieving readers construct traversals (unique online paths of information) they locate information and generate meaning from science websites? (3) What individual characteristics influenced students' strategies as they locate information and generate meaning from science websites? Participants were six ninth-grade students in general education biology classrooms. Three were average-achieving readers and three were at-risk readers based on assessments of reading comprehension in traditional print-based texts. The students engaged in a three-day research project about the rainforest biome, locating information online, taking notes, and constructing an information brochure about the rainforest for peers. Data measures prior to and during the research included an Internet use survey, verbal protocols, screen captures of online activity, oral reading fluency assessments, and prior knowledge and topic engagement surveys. Quantitative descriptive and univariate analyses as well as qualitative abductive coding were employed over multiple phases to analyze the data. First, the results suggest

Peculiarities of territorial distribution and dynamics in rates of population noncommunicable diseases in the Krasnoyarsk Region associated with the influence of environmental risk factors

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D.V. Goryaev

2016-12-01

Full Text Available The analysis of the primary morbidity dynamics in the population of the Krasnoyarsk region is performed for the period 2005–2015. The incidence forecast by classes of ICD diseases, X revision is calculated. It was found that the figures of the first time revealed incidence in the Krasnoyarsk region exceeded the average for the Russian Federation during the years 2011–2014 on neoplasms, nervous system diseases, diseases of the circulatory and the digestive systems, diseases of the musculoskeletal system and connective tissue, endocrine diseases and a number of other systems. The values of the integral health risk indicators are calculated by the methodology of State Sanitary and Epidemiological Surveillance Agency of the year 1995. For risk characteristics the following criteria are used: integral index of health less than <0.312 – minimal risk; 0.313–0.500 – moderate risk; 0.501–0.688 – increased risk of more than 0.689 – the highest risk. It was found that the increased health risk is typical of 21 municipal territories of the region, which is home to 66.1 % of the population. Among the areas with “high” public health risk in different years were Sharypovo, Birilyussy and Evenk districts. In most areas the priorities relate to a group of non-communicable diseases associated with the negative impact of various factors of habitat population (disease of the respiratory system, circulatory system, neoplasms, including malignant, etc.. According to the forecasts in 2016 we expect the decrease in the proportion of inhabitants in the region from the group with the “moderate” and “elevated” risk, and an increase in the number of people with “high” and “minimal” risk to public health. It is shown that a number of regional municipalities have a necessity in the planning and implementation of measures to improve the population health.

Quantifying introgression risk with realistic population genetics

OpenAIRE

Ghosh, Atiyo; Meirmans, Patrick G.; Haccou, Patsy

2012-01-01

Introgression is the permanent incorporation of genes from the genome of one population into another. This can have severe consequences, such as extinction of endemic species, or the spread of transgenes. Quantification of the risk of introgression is an important component of genetically modified crop regulation. Most theoretical introgression studies aimed at such quantification disregard one or more of the most important factors concerning introgression: realistic genetical mechanisms, rep...

Occupational risk and chronic kidney disease: a population-based study in the United States adult population

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Rubinstein S

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Sofia Rubinstein,1 Chengwei Wang,1 Wenchun Qu2 1Department of Medicine, Nassau University Medical Center, East Meadow, NY, USA; 2Department of Physical Medicine and Rehabilitation, Mayo Clinic, Rochester, MN, USA Objective: Previous studies on occupational risk for chronic kidney disease (CKD have analyzed a limited range of occupations and focused on nephrotoxins. The primary purpose of this study was to examine the relative risk for the occurrence of CKD between different occupations in the US adult population. Materials and methods: This was a population-based survey study of 91,340 participants in the US, who completed the National Health Interview Survey, 2004 through 2008. The outcome variable, CKD, was defined as having weakening/failing kidneys in the past 12 months, as diagnosed by a physician. The predictor variable, occupation, was obtained using the census occupational codes, regrouped according to North American Industrial Classification System. Results: After controlling for age, gender, hypertension, and education, and with the category Life, Physical, and Social Science Occupations as a reference group, the likelihood of developing CKD was 4.3 times higher in respondents working in Building, Grounds Cleaning and Maintenance Occupations, 4.4 times higher in Healthcare Practitioners and Technical Occupations, 4.7 times higher in Transportation and Material Moving Occupations and in Computer and Mathematical Occupations, 4.8 times higher in Production Occupations, 5.3 times higher in Food Preparation and Serving Related Occupations, and 6.1 times higher in Healthcare Support Occupations and in Legal Occupations. Conclusion: This study identified occupation groups in US adult population with increased risk for CKD. Alleviation of workplace stress is suggested as a goal for behavioral intervention in high-risk occupations. Keywords: CKD, risk factors, occupations

Sarcoma risk and dioxin emissions from incinerators and industrial plants: a population-based case-control study (Italy)

Science.gov (United States)

Zambon, Paola; Ricci, Paolo; Bovo, Emanuela; Casula, Alessandro; Gattolin, Massimo; Fiore, Anna Rita; Chiosi, Francesco; Guzzinati, Stefano

2007-01-01

Background It is not clear whether environmental exposure to dioxin affects the general population. The aim of this research is to evaluate sarcoma risk in relation to the environmental pollution caused by dioxin emitted by waste incinerators and industrial sources of airborne dioxin. The study population lives in a part of the Province of Venice (Italy), where a population-based cancer registry (Veneto Tumour Registry – RTV) has been active since 1987. Methods Two hundred and five cases of visceral and extravisceral sarcoma, confirmed by microscopic examination, diagnosed from 01.01.1990 to 31.12.1996, were extracted from the RTV database. Diagnoses were revised using the actual pathology reports and clinical records. For each sarcoma case, three controls of the same age and sex were randomly selected from the population files of the Local Health Units (LHUs). The residential history of each subject, whether case or control, was reconstructed, address by address, from 1960 to the date of diagnosis. All waste incinerators and industrial sources of airborne dioxin in the Province of Venice were taken into account, as was one very large municipal waste incinerator outside the area but close to its boundaries. The Industrial Source Complex Model in Long Term mode, version 3 (ISCLT3), was used to assess the level of atmospheric dispersion. A specific value for exposure was calculated for each point (geo-referenced address) and for each calendar year; the exposure value for each subject is expressed as the average of specific time-weighted values. The analysis takes into account 172 cases and 405 controls, aged more than 14 years. Results The risk of developing a sarcoma is 3.3 times higher (95% Confidence Interval – 95% CI: 1.24 – 8.76) among subjects, both sexes, with the longest exposure period and the highest exposure level ; a significant excess of risk was also observed in women (Odds Ratio OR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.04 – 5.59) and for cancers of the connective

Sarcoma risk and dioxin emissions from incinerators and industrial plants: a population-based case-control study (Italy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fiore Anna

2007-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background It is not clear whether environmental exposure to dioxin affects the general population. The aim of this research is to evaluate sarcoma risk in relation to the environmental pollution caused by dioxin emitted by waste incinerators and industrial sources of airborne dioxin. The study population lives in a part of the Province of Venice (Italy, where a population-based cancer registry (Veneto Tumour Registry – RTV has been active since 1987. Methods Two hundred and five cases of visceral and extravisceral sarcoma, confirmed by microscopic examination, diagnosed from 01.01.1990 to 31.12.1996, were extracted from the RTV database. Diagnoses were revised using the actual pathology reports and clinical records. For each sarcoma case, three controls of the same age and sex were randomly selected from the population files of the Local Health Units (LHUs. The residential history of each subject, whether case or control, was reconstructed, address by address, from 1960 to the date of diagnosis. All waste incinerators and industrial sources of airborne dioxin in the Province of Venice were taken into account, as was one very large municipal waste incinerator outside the area but close to its boundaries. The Industrial Source Complex Model in Long Term mode, version 3 (ISCLT3, was used to assess the level of atmospheric dispersion. A specific value for exposure was calculated for each point (geo-referenced address and for each calendar year; the exposure value for each subject is expressed as the average of specific time-weighted values. The analysis takes into account 172 cases and 405 controls, aged more than 14 years. Results The risk of developing a sarcoma is 3.3 times higher (95% Confidence Interval – 95% CI: 1.24 – 8.76 among subjects, both sexes, with the longest exposure period and the highest exposure level ; a significant excess of risk was also observed in women (Odds Ratio OR = 2.41, 95% CI: 1.04 – 5.59 and for

Daytime napping and the risk of all-cause and cause-specific mortality: a 13-year follow-up of a British population.

Science.gov (United States)

Leng, Yue; Wainwright, Nick W J; Cappuccio, Francesco P; Surtees, Paul G; Hayat, Shabina; Luben, Robert; Brayne, Carol; Khaw, Kay-Tee

2014-05-01

Epidemiologic studies have reported conflicting results on the relationship between daytime napping and mortality risk, and there are few data on the potential association in the British population. We investigated the associations between daytime napping and all-cause or cause-specific mortality in the European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer-Norfolk study, a British population-based cohort study. Among the 16,374 men and women who answered questions on napping habits between 1998 and 2000, a total of 3,251 died during the 13-year follow-up. Daytime napping was associated with an increased risk of all-cause mortality (for napping less than 1 hour per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.14, 95% confidence interval: 1.02, 1.27; for napping 1 hour or longer per day on average, hazard ratio = 1.32, 95% confidence interval: 1.04, 1.68), independent of age, sex, social class, educational level, marital status, employment status, body mass index, physical activity level, smoking status, alcohol intake, depression, self-reported general health, use of hypnotic drugs or other medications, time spent in bed at night, and presence of preexisting health conditions. This association was more pronounced for death from respiratory diseases (for napping less than 1 hour, hazard ratio = 1.40, 95% confidence interval: 0.95, 2.05; for napping 1 hour or more, hazard ratio = 2.56, 95% confidence interval: 1.34, 4.86) and in individuals 65 years of age or younger. Excessive daytime napping might be a useful marker of underlying health risk, particularly of respiratory problems, especially among those 65 years of age or younger. Further research is required to clarify the nature of the observed association.

Cardiovascular risk assessment between urban and rural population in Malaysia.

Science.gov (United States)

Noor Hassim, I; Norazman, M R; Diana, M; Khairul Hazdi, Y; Rosnah, I

2016-12-01

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) caused significant burden to Malaysia as it accounted for 36% of total deaths. This study aims to evaluate the burden of cardiovascular risk factors among Malaysian adult and assess the difference between urban and rural population in the selected communities. This study is part of the ongoing Prospective Urban Rural Epidemiology (PURE) database, whereby the baseline data were collected since June 2008. CVD risk was measured using INTERHEART risk score which comprised of eleven risk factors i.e. age and gender, family history of heart attack, smoking status, exposure to second hand smoke, diabetes mellitus, hypertension status, waist-hip ratio, self-reported stress, depression, dietary habits and physical activity status. Majority of the studied participants had low cardiovascular risk (57%). Participants from rural area were generally older, had lower educational status, higher prevalence of smokers, obesity, hypertension, diabetes, and more likely to be depressed. In comparison, urbanites had lower physical activities and more likely to be stressful. Mean INTERHEART score among rural participants were higher, especially for male, in comparison to urbanite (11.5±5.83 vs. 10.01±5.74, p<0.001). Contradict to common beliefs, participants in rural areas generally have higher cardiovascular risk factors compared to their urban counterparts. The rural population should be targeted for focused preventive interventions, taking account the socioeconomic and cultural context.

LILRA3 Is Associated with Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia Risk in a Chinese Population

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Jielin Sun

2013-04-01

Full Text Available A recent prostate cancer (PCa genome-wide association study (GWAS identified rs103294, a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP located on LILRA3, a key component in the regulation of inflammatory inhibition, to be significantly associated with PCa risk in a Chinese population. Because inflammation may be a common etiological risk factor between PCa and benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH, the current study was conducted to investigate the association of rs103294 with BPH risk. rs103294 was genotyped in a Chinese population of 426 BPH cases and 1,008 controls from Xinhua Hospital in Shanghai, China. Association between rs103294, BPH risk and clinicopathological traits were tested with adjustment for age. rs103294 was significantly associated with BPH risk with a p-value of 0.0067. Individuals with risk allele “C” had increased risk for BPH (OR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.09–1.66. Stratified analysis revealed a stronger association risk for younger patients who are below 72 years old (OR = 1.51, 95% CI: 1.06–2.16. Our study represents the first effort to demonstrate that LILRA3 gene is significantly associated with BPH risk in a Chinese population. Our results support a common role of inflammation in the development of PCa and BPH. Additional studies are needed to further evaluate our results.

SCK-CEN 2006 barometer on risk perception of the Belgian population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carle, B.

2009-01-01

Starting with 2000, the expert group Society and Policy Support carries out research on various aspects of risk governance. Measuring several risk perception items at regular intervals with the Belgian population is an important part of this research. SCK-CEN has organised a first risk perception barometer in 2002 and a second one in 2006. The 2006 barometer is based on 1063 Computer Assisted Personal Interviews, with a duration of approximately 35 minutes. The large scale of the survey ensures that general trends can be detected and allows specific and detailed analysis on subgroups of the population. Besides the classical background variables used to obtain a sample representative for the Belgian 18+ population (age, language, habitat, gender and social class), several questions were included assessing the sociological context and the psychological personality profile. A series of questions on risk perception, confidence in authorities and specific nuclear topics were repeated in 2006 and constitute a fixed core, allowing comparison over time in Belgium, as well as with the results from the IRSN French barometer. In addition, a number of topics such as acceptance of legal norms and management options for radioactively contaminated milk, energy, nuclear waste and the perception of the Chernobyl accident were covered in detail in the 2006 edition of the SCK-CEN barometer

Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: Study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Navoni, J.A.; De Pietri, D.; Olmos, V.; Gimenez, C.; Bovi Mitre, G.

2014-01-01

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10 −5 and 2,1·10 −2 . An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. - Highlights: • Risk assessment (RA) to As using deterministic procedures • Integration of RA through deterministic procedures with GIS tools • Analysis of the time-space behavior of the risk area • Analysis of As effect outcomes through HI • Broaden the scopes of deterministic approaches

Human health risk assessment with spatial analysis: Study of a population chronically exposed to arsenic through drinking water from Argentina

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Navoni, J.A., E-mail: jnavoni@ffyb.uba.ar [Cátedra de Toxicología y Química Legal, Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Junín 956, C1113AAD Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); De Pietri, D., E-mail: depietrid@hotmail.com [Dirección Nacional de Determinantes de la Salud e Investigación, Ministerio de Salud de la Nación, Av. 9 de Julio 1925, C1073ABA Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Olmos, V. [Cátedra de Toxicología y Química Legal, Facultad de Farmacia y Bioquímica, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Junín 956, C1113AAD Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires (Argentina); Gimenez, C. [Cátedra Química Analítica I, Universidad Nacional del Chaco Austral. Cmte., Fernández 755 (3700), Pres. Roque Sáenz Peña, Chaco (Argentina); Bovi Mitre, G. [Grupo INQA (Investigación Química Aplicada) Facultad de Ciencias Agrarias, Universidad Nacional de Jujuy, Alberdi 47, piso 1, San Salvador de Jujuy, Jujuy CP 4600 (Argentina); and others

2014-11-15

Arsenic (As) is a ubiquitous element widely distributed in the environment. This metalloid has proven carcinogenic action in man. The aim of this work was to assess the health risk related to As exposure through drinking water in an Argentinean population, applying spatial analytical techniques in addition to conventional approaches. The study involved 650 inhabitants from Chaco and Santiago del Estero provinces. Arsenic in drinking water (Asw) and urine (UAs) was measured by hydride generation atomic absorption spectrophotometry. Average daily dose (ADD), hazard quotient (HQ), and carcinogenic risk (CR) were estimated, geo-referenced and integrated with demographical data by a health composite index (HI) applying geographic information system (GIS) analysis. Asw covered a wide range of concentration: from non-detectable (ND) to 2000 μg/L. More than 90% of the population was exposed to As, with UAs levels above the intervention level of 100 μg/g creatinine. GIS analysis described an expected level of exposure lower than the observed, indicating possible additional source/s of exposure to inorganic arsenic. In 68% of the locations, the population had a HQ greater than 1, and the CR ranged between 5·10{sup −5} and 2,1·10{sup −2}. An environmental exposure area through ADD geo-referencing defined a baseline scenario for space-time risk assessment. The time of residence, the demographic density and the potential health considered outcomes helped characterize the health risk in the region. The geospatial analysis contributed to delimitate and analyze the change tendencies of risk in the region, broadening the scopes of the results for a decision-making process. - Highlights: • Risk assessment (RA) to As using deterministic procedures • Integration of RA through deterministic procedures with GIS tools • Analysis of the time-space behavior of the risk area • Analysis of As effect outcomes through HI • Broaden the scopes of deterministic approaches.

ESTIMASI NILAI AVERAGE VALUE AT RISK PADA SAHAM PORTOFOLIO DENGAN MENGGUNAKAN METODE ANALISIS KOMPONEN UTAMA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

NI LUH NIKASARI

2017-01-01

Full Text Available There are several methods that can be used to measure the risk of a portfolio of stocks. One of them is Average Value at Risk (AVaR. The purpose of this study is to implement Principal Component Analysis (PCA to select stocks to be incorporated in the portfolio and also to compare the AVaR of the portfolio when  the stocks selected using PCA and selected using mean-variance method. The data we used are the closing price of the stocks BBCA, BDMN, ICBP, INTP, CPIN, KLBF, GGRM, MNCN, SMCB, and SGRO. The selected stocks using PCA are BBCA, CPIN, INTP and, MNCN with AVaR is 1.0971% for 90% confidence level and for 95% confidence level is 1.1432% whereas by using mean variance method, it is found that BDMN, GGRM, ICBP, and SMCB have to be incorporated in the portfolio with AVaR is 1.3314% for 90% confidence level and 1.4263% for 95% confidence level.

Area-level poverty and preterm birth risk: A population-based multilevel analysis

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Muglia Louis A

2008-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Preterm birth is a complex disease with etiologic influences from a variety of social, environmental, hormonal, genetic, and other factors. The purpose of this study was to utilize a large population-based birth registry to estimate the independent effect of county-level poverty on preterm birth risk. To accomplish this, we used a multilevel logistic regression approach to account for multiple co-existent individual-level variables and county-level poverty rate. Methods Population-based study utilizing Missouri's birth certificate database (1989–1997. We conducted a multilevel logistic regression analysis to estimate the effect of county-level poverty on PTB risk. Of 634,994 births nested within 115 counties in Missouri, two levels were considered. Individual-level variables included demographics factors, prenatal care, health-related behavioral risk factors, and medical risk factors. The area-level variable included the percentage of the population within each county living below the poverty line (US census data, 1990. Counties were divided into quartiles of poverty; the first quartile (lowest rate of poverty was the reference group. Results PTB th quartile (4.9%, p adjOR 1.18 (95% CI 1.03, 1.35, with a similar effect at earlier gestational ages (adjOR 1.27 (95% CI 1.06, 1.52. Conclusion Women residing in socioeconomically deprived areas are at increased risk of preterm birth, above other underlying risk factors. Although the risk increase is modest, it affects a large number of pregnancies.

Extreme lipoprotein(a) levels and risk of myocardial infarction in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kamstrup, Pia R; Benn, Marianne; Tybjaerg-Hansen, Anne

2008-01-01

Elevated lipoprotein(a) levels are associated with myocardial infarction (MI) in some but not all studies. Limitations of previous studies include lack of risk estimates for extreme lipoprotein(a) levels, measurements in long-term frozen samples, no correction for regression dilution bias, and lack...... of absolute risk estimates in the general population. We tested the hypothesis that extreme lipoprotein(a) levels predict MI in the general population, measuring levels shortly after sampling, correcting for regression dilution bias, and calculating hazard ratios and absolute risk estimates....

A Population-based survey of risk for cancer in individuals diagnosed with myotonic dystrophy

Science.gov (United States)

Abbott, Diana; Johnson, Nicholas E; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A.

2018-01-01

Introduction The risk of cancer in patients diagnosed with myotonic dystrophy (DM) is reported for the homogeneous Utah population. Methods Clinical data accessed from the largest Utah healthcare providers have been record-linked to the Utah Population Database (UPDB), a population-based resource also linked to the Utah Cancer Registry. Relative risks were estimated for 36 cancers of different types in 281 DM patients. Results Testicular cancer (RR=10.74; 95% CI: 1.91, 38.79), endometrial cancer (6.98; 1.24, 25.22), and Non-Hodgkins lymphoma (4.25; 1.16, 12.43) were all observed at significant excess in DM patients. Discussion This study confirms an overall increased risk of cancer in DM. Individuals diagnosed with DM might benefit from risk counseling. PMID:27064430

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change.

Science.gov (United States)

Akerlof, Karen L; Delamater, Paul L; Boules, Caroline R; Upperman, Crystal R; Mitchell, Clifford S

2015-12-04

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change's health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change-due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards-already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents' climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karen L. Akerlof

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126. We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages.

Vulnerable Populations Perceive Their Health as at Risk from Climate Change

Science.gov (United States)

Akerlof, Karen L.; Delamater, Paul L.; Boules, Caroline R.; Upperman, Crystal R.; Mitchell, Clifford S.

2015-01-01

Climate change is already taking a toll on human health, a toll that is likely to increase in coming decades. The relationship between risk perceptions and vulnerability to climate change’s health threats has received little attention, even though an understanding of the dynamics of adaptation among particularly susceptible populations is becoming increasingly important. We demonstrate that some people whose health will suffer the greatest harms from climate change—due to social vulnerability, health susceptibility, and exposure to hazards—already feel they are at risk. In a 2013 survey we measured Maryland residents’ climate beliefs, health risk perceptions, and household social vulnerability characteristics, including medical conditions (n = 2126). We paired survey responses with secondary data sources for residence in a floodplain and/or urban heat island to predict perceptions of personal and household climate health risk. General health risk perceptions, political ideology, and climate beliefs are the strongest predictors. Yet, people in households with the following characteristics also see themselves at higher risk: members with one or more medical conditions or disabilities; low income; racial/ethnic minorities; and residence in a floodplain. In light of these results, climate health communication among vulnerable populations should emphasize protective actions instead of risk messages. PMID:26690184

Whole-exome sequencing implicates DGKH as a risk gene for panic disorder in the Faroese population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gregersen, Noomi; Lescai, Francesco; Liang, Jieqin

2016-01-01

attacks, and genetic factors have been estimated to explain around 40% of the risk. In this study the potential enrichment of PD risk variants was explored based on whole-exome sequencing of 54 patients with PD and 211 control individuals from the Faroese population. No genome-wide significant......The demographic history of the isolated population of the Faroe Islands may have induced enrichment of variants rarely seen in outbred European populations, including enrichment of risk variants for panic disorder (PD). PD is a common mental disorder, characterized by recurring and unprovoked panic...... mental disorders. Additionally, we found an enrichment of PD risk variants in the Faroese population; variants with otherwise low frequency in more outbreed European populations. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc....

Inadequate Riboflavin Intake and Anemia Risk in a Chinese Population: Five-Year Follow Up of the Jiangsu Nutrition Study

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Shi, Zumin; Zhen, Shiqi; Wittert, Gary A.; Yuan, Baojun; Zuo, Hui; Taylor, Anne W.

2014-01-01

Objectives Riboflavin (vitamin B2) has been shown in animal studies to affect the absorption and metabolism of iron. Cross-sectional population studies show a relationship between riboflavin intake and anemia but prospective population studies are limited. The aim of the study was to determine the relationship between riboflavin intake and the risk of anemia in a Chinese cohort. Method The study used data from 1253 Chinese men and women who participated in two waves of the Jiangsu Nutrition Study (JIN), five years apart, in 2002 and 2007. Riboflavin intake and hemoglobin (Hb) were quantitatively assessed together with dietary patterns, lifestyle, socio-demographic and health-related factors. Results At baseline, 97.2% of participants had inadequate riboflavin intake (below the estimate average requirement). Riboflavin intake was positively associated with anemia at baseline, but low riboflavin intake was associated with an increased risk of anemia at follow-up among those anemic at baseline. In the multivariate model, adjusting for demographic and lifestyle factors and dietary patterns, the relative risk and 95% confidence interval for anemia at follow-up, across quartiles of riboflavin intake were: 1, 0.82(0.54–1.23), 0.56(0.34–0.93), 0.52(0.28–0.98) (p for trend 0.021). There was a significant interaction between riboflavin and iron intake; when riboflavin intake was low, a high iron intake was associated with a lower probability of anemia at follow-up. This association disappeared when riboflavin intake was high. Conclusion Inadequate riboflavin intake is common and increases the risk of anemia in Chinese adults. Given the interaction with iron intake correcting inadequate riboflavin intake may be a priority in the prevention of anemia, and population based measurement and intervention trials are required. PMID:24533156

Mortality risk factors show similar trends in modern and historic populations exposed to plague.

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Rubini, Mauro; Gualdi-Russo, Emanuela; Manzon, Vanessa S; Rinaldo, Natascia; Bianucci, Raffaella

2016-05-31

Plague has been responsible for two major historic pandemics (6th-8th century CE; 14th-19th century CE) and a modern one. The recent Malagasy plague outbreaks raised new concerns on the deadly potential of the plague-causing bacteria Yersinia pestis. Between September 2014 and April 2015, outbreaks of bubonic and pneumonic plague hit the Malagasy population. Two hundred and sixty-three cases, including 71 deaths, have been reported in 16 different districts with a case fatality rate of 27%. The scope of our study was to ascertain whether the risk factors for health in modern-day populations exposed to plague and in ancient populations that faced the two historic pandemics varied or remained substantially unaltered. The risk of mortality of the Malagasy population with those obtained from the reconstruction of three samples of European populations exposed to the historic pandemics was contrasted. The evidence shows that the risks of death are not uniform across age neither in modern nor in historic populations exposed to plague and shows precise concentrations in specific age groups (children between five and nine years of age and young adults). Although in the post-antibiotic era, the fatality rates have drastically reduced, both modern and historic populations were exposed to the same risk factors that are essentially represented by a low standard of environmental hygiene, poor nutrition, and weak health systems.

Nonfasting Triglycerides and Risk of Ischemic Stroke in the General Population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Freiberg, J.J.; Tybjaerg-Hansen, A.; Jensen, J.S.

2008-01-01

Context The role of triglycerides in the risk of ischemic stroke remains controversial. Recently, a strong association was found between elevated levels of nonfasting triglycerides, which indicate the presence of remnant lipoproteins, and increased risk of ischemic heart disease. Objective To test...... the hypothesis that increased levels of nonfasting triglycerides are associated with ischemic stroke in the general population. Design, Setting, and Participants The Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective, Danish population - based cohort study initiated in 1976, with follow- up through July 2007....... Participants were 13 956 men and women aged 20 through 93 years. A cross- sectional study included 9637 individuals attending the 1991- 1994 examination of the prospective study. Main Outcome Measures Prospective study: baseline levels of nonfasting triglycerides, other risk factors at baseline and at follow...

Using dynamic stochastic modelling to estimate population risk factors in infectious disease: the example of FIV in 15 cat populations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Fouchet

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In natural cat populations, Feline Immunodeficiency Virus (FIV is transmitted through bites between individuals. Factors such as the density of cats within the population or the sex-ratio can have potentially strong effects on the frequency of fight between individuals and hence appear as important population risk factors for FIV. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: To study such population risk factors, we present data on FIV prevalence in 15 cat populations in northeastern France. We investigate five key social factors of cat populations; the density of cats, the sex-ratio, the number of males and the mean age of males and females within the population. We overcome the problem of dependence in the infective status data using sexually-structured dynamic stochastic models. Only the age of males and females had an effect (p = 0.043 and p = 0.02, respectively on the male-to-female transmission rate. Due to multiple tests, it is even likely that these effects are, in reality, not significant. Finally we show that, in our study area, the data can be explained by a very simple model that does not invoke any risk factor. CONCLUSION: Our conclusion is that, in host-parasite systems in general, fluctuations due to stochasticity in the transmission process are naturally very large and may alone explain a larger part of the variability in observed disease prevalence between populations than previously expected. Finally, we determined confidence intervals for the simple model parameters that can be used to further aid in management of the disease.

Environmental and societal influences acting on cardiovascular risk factors and disease at a population level: a review.

Science.gov (United States)

Chow, Clara Kayei; Lock, Karen; Teo, Koon; Subramanian, S V; McKee, Martin; Yusuf, Salim

2009-12-01

It has long been known that cardiovascular disease (CVD) rates vary considerably among populations, across space and through time. It is now apparent that most of the attributable risk for myocardial infarction 'within' populations from across the world can be ascribed to the varying levels of a limited number of risk factors among individuals in a population. Individual risk factors (e.g. blood pressure) can be modified with resulting health gains. Yet, the persistence of large international variations in cardiovascular risk factors and resulting CVD incidence and mortality indicates that there are additional factors that apply to 'populations' that are important to understand as part of a comprehensive approach to CVD control. This article reviews the evidence on why certain populations are more at risk than others.

Stochastic risk estimation from medical x-ray diagnostic examinations, 3

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hashizume, Tadashi; Maruyama, Takashi; Noda, Yutaka; Iwai, Kazuo; Fukuhisa, Kenjiro

1981-01-01

The genetically significant dose (GSD), per Caput mean bone marrow dose (CMD), leukemia significant dose (LSD) and malignancy significant dose (MSD) from medical diagnostic X-ray examinations in Japan were estimated based on a 1979 nationwide survey of randomly sampled hospitals and clinics. The population risk estimates were carried out using the resultant values of GSD, LSD and MSD. In the risk estimates, the significant factors, namely, the relative child expectancy, the leukemia significant factor and the malignancy significant factor, for patients were assumed to be same as those of general population. The risk factors used were 185 x 10 -6 rad -1 for genetic risk of all generations, 20 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal leukemia and 165 x 10 -6 rad -1 for fatal malignant diseases, respectively. The resultant annual population doses per person were 15 mrad (0.15 mGy) for GSD, 107 mrad (1.07 mGy) for CMD, 86 mrad (0.86 mGy) for LSD and 43 mrad (0.43 mGy) for MSD, respectively. The present data other than the MSD were compared with the data in 1960, 1969 and 1974. For example, the GSD of 1979 was approximately same as that of 1974, although the annual number of examinations in 1979 increased by about 30 percent as compared with those of 1974. The population risks from X-ray diagnosis were estimated to be 260 persons per year for genetic risk of all generations, 192 person per year for fatal leukemic risk and 825 person per year for malignant risk, respectively, for the whole population in Japan, assuming that the X-ray diagnosis in 1979 will be performed continuously in the future. The average risks per one exposure for X-ray radiography were estimated using the weighted average of the significant factor and the organ or tissue dose with the number of radiographic exposures by age and by type of examination. The average risks per radiographic exposure were 176 x 10 -9 for genetic risk, 285 x 10 -9 for leukemic risk and 1.75 x 10 -6 for malignant risk respectively. (author)

Extinction Risk of Pseudotsuga Menziesii Populations in the Central Region of Mexico: An AHP Analysis

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Javier López-Upton

2015-05-01

Full Text Available Within the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP framework, a hierarchical model was created considering anthropogenic, genetic and ecological criteria and sub-criteria that directly affect Douglas-fir (Pseudotsuga menziesii (Mirb. risk of extinction in central Mexico. The sub-criteria values were standardized, weighted, and ordered by importance in a pairwise comparison matrix; the model was mathematically integrated to quantify the degree of extinction risk for each of the 29 populations present in the study area. The results indicate diverse levels of risk for the populations, ranging from very low to very high. Estanzuela, Presa Jaramillo, Peñas Cargadas and Plan del Baile populations have very low risk, with values less than 0.25. On the other hand, Vicente Guerrero, Morán, Minatitlán, La Garita and Tonalapa populations have very high risk (>0.35 because they are heavily influenced by anthropogenic (close to roads and towns, ecological (presence of exotic species and little or no natural regeneration and genetic (presence of mature to overmature trees and geographic isolation factors. In situ conservation activities, prioritizing their implementation in populations at most risk is highly recommended; in addition, germplasm collection for use of assisted gene flow and migration approaches, including artificial reforestation, should be considered in these locations.

Population impact of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia: a nationwide study.

Science.gov (United States)

Sørensen, Holger J; Nielsen, Philip R; Pedersen, Carsten B; Benros, Michael E; Nordentoft, Merete; Mortensen, Preben B

2014-03-01

Although several studies have examined the relative contributions of familial and environmental risk factors for schizophrenia, few have additionally examined the predictive power on the individual level and simultaneously examined the population impact associated with a wide range of familial and environmental risk factors. The authors present rate ratios (IRR), population-attributable risks (PAR) and sex-specific cumulative incidences of the following risk factors: parental history of mental illness, urban place of birth, advanced paternal age, parental loss and immigration status. We established a population-based cohort of 2,486,646million persons born in Denmark between 1 January 1955 and 31 December 1993 using Danish registers. We found that PAR associated with urban birth was 11.73%; PAR associated with one, respectively 2, parent(s) with schizophrenia was 2.67% and 0.12%. PAR associated with second-generation immigration was 0.70%. Highest cumulative incidence (CI=20.23%; 95% CI=18.10-22.62) was found in male offspring of 2 parents with schizophrenia. Cumulative incidences for male offspring or female offspring of a parent with schizophrenia were 9.53% (95% CI=7.71-11.79), and 4.89%, (95% CI 4.50-5.31). The study showed that risk factors with highest predictive power on the individual level have a relatively low population impact. The challenge in future studies with direct genetic data is to examine gene-environmental interactions that can move research beyond current approaches and seek to achieve higher predictive power on the individual level and higher population impact. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer: A Swedish population-based cohort study of competing risks and type 2 diabetes mellitus.

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Häggström, Christel; Van Hemelrijck, Mieke; Garmo, Hans; Robinson, David; Stattin, Pär; Rowley, Mark; Coolen, Anthony C C; Holmberg, Lars

2018-05-09

Most previous studies of prostate cancer have not taken into account that men in the studied populations are also at risk of competing event, and that these men may have different susceptibility to prostate cancer risk. The aim of this study was to investigate heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer, using a recently developed latent class regression method for competing risks. We further aimed to elucidate the association between type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) and prostate cancer risk, and to compare the results with conventional methods for survival analysis. We analysed the risk of prostate cancer in 126,482 men from the comparison cohort of the Prostate Cancer Data base Sweden (PCBaSe) 3.0. During a mean follow-up of 6 years 6,036 men were diagnosed with prostate cancer and 22,393 men died. We detected heterogeneity in risk of prostate cancer with two distinct latent classes in the study population. The smaller class included 9% of the study population in which men had a higher risk of prostate cancer and the risk was stronger associated with class membership than any of the covariates included in the study. Moreover, we found no association between T2DM and risk of prostate cancer after removal of the effect of informative censoring due to competing risks. The recently developed latent class for competing risks method could be used to provide new insights in precision medicine with the target to classify individuals regarding different susceptibility to a particular disease, reaction to a risk factor or response to treatment. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved. © 2018 UICC.

Infective Endocarditis and Cancer Risk: A Population-Based Cohort Study.

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Sun, Li-Min; Wu, Jung-Nan; Lin, Cheng-Li; Day, Jen-Der; Liang, Ji-An; Liou, Li-Ren; Kao, Chia-Hung

2016-03-01

This study investigated the possible relationship between endocarditis and overall and individual cancer risk among study participants in Taiwan.We used data from the National Health Insurance program of Taiwan to conduct a population-based, observational, and retrospective cohort study. The case group consisted of 14,534 patients who were diagnosed with endocarditis between January 1, 2000 and December 31, 2010. For the control group, 4 patients without endocarditis were frequency matched to each endocarditis patient according to age, sex, and index year. Competing risks regression analysis was conducted to determine the effect of endocarditis on cancer risk.A large difference was noted in Charlson comorbidity index between endocarditis and nonendocarditis patients. In patients with endocarditis, the risk for developing overall cancer was significant and 119% higher than in patients without endocarditis (adjusted subhazard ratio = 2.19, 95% confidence interval = 1.98-2.42). Regarding individual cancers, in addition to head and neck, uterus, female breast and hematological malignancies, the risks of developing colorectal cancer, and some digestive tract cancers were significantly higher. Additional analyses determined that the association of cancer with endocarditis is stronger within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis.This population-based cohort study found that patients with endocarditis are at a higher risk for colorectal cancer and other cancers in Taiwan. The risk was even higher within the 1st 5 years after endocarditis diagnosis. It suggested that endocarditis is an early marker of colorectal cancer and other cancers. The underlying mechanisms must still be explored and may account for a shared risk factor of infection in both endocarditis and malignancy.

Risk perception among women receiving genetic counseling: a population-based follow-up study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mikkelsen, Ellen M; Sunde, Lone; Johansen, Christoffer

2007-01-01

-up study of 213 women who received genetic counseling for hereditary breast and ovarian cancer, 319 women who underwent mammography (Reference Group I), and a random sample of 1070 women from the general population (Reference Group II). RESULTS: Women who received genetic counseling decreased...... counseling, compared to a reduction of 5% (p=0.03) and 2% (p=0.01) in Reference Groups I and II, respectively. Risk communicated only in words, inaccurate risk perception at baseline, and presence of a familial mutation appeared to be predictors of inaccurate risk perception 12 months after counseling......BACKGROUND: We aimed to explore the impact of genetic counseling on perceived personal lifetime risk of breast cancer, the accuracy of risk perception, and possible predictors of inaccurate risk perception 1 year following counseling. METHODS: We conducted a population-based prospective follow...

Association of BMI and height with the risk of endometrial cancer, overall and by histological subtype: a population-based prospective cohort study in Japan.

Science.gov (United States)

Kawachi, Asuka; Shimazu, Taichi; Budhathoki, Sanjeev; Sawada, Norie; Yamaji, Taiki; Iwasaki, Motoki; Inoue, Manami; Tsugane, Shoichiro

2018-04-18

Evidence on the association between BMI, height, and endometrial cancer risk, including by subtypes, among Asian populations remains limited. We evaluated the impact of BMI and height on the risk of endometrial cancer, overall and by histological subtype. We prospectively investigated 53 651 Japanese women aged 40-69 years. With an average follow-up duration of 18.6 years, 180 newly diagnosed endometrial cancers were reported, including 119 type 1 and 21 type 2. The association between BMI, height, and endometrial cancer risk was assessed using a Cox proportional hazards regression model with adjustment for potential confounders. Overweight and obesity were associated positively with the risk of endometrial cancer. Compared with BMI of 23.0-24.9 kg/m, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence intervals) were 1.93 (1.17-3.16) for BMI of 27.0-29.9 kg/m and 2.37 (1.20-4.66) for BMI of at least 30.0 kg/m. On analysis by histological subtype, with each increase in BMI of 5 U, the estimated HR of type 1 endometrial cancer increased (HR=1.54, 95% confidence interval: 1.21-1.98), but HR of type 2 endometrial cancer was unaffected. There was no statistically significant association between height and endometrial cancer risk. In conclusion, the risk of endometrial cancer was elevated in women with a BMI of at least 27.0 kg/m. By histological subtype, BMI was associated with type 1, but not type 2 endometrial cancer risk among a population with a relatively low BMI compared with western populations.

Risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to the background population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helleberg, Marie; Gerstoft, Jan; Afzal, Shoaib

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: The relative impact of immune deficiency and lifestyle-related factors on risk of cancer in the HIV-infected population is controversial. We aimed to estimate the population-attributable fractions (PAFs) associated with smoking, being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency. METHODS...... of cancer associated with smoking and with being HIV-infected were 27 and 49%, respectively. For cancers not strongly related to smoking or viral infections, the PAFs associated with being HIV-infected and with immune deficiency were 0%. CONCLUSION: The risk of cancer is increased in HIV patients compared......: In a Danish, nationwide, population-based cohort study (1995-2011), incidences of cancer were compared between an HIV-infected cohort and a population-based matched cohort in analyses stratified on cancer category, smoking status and for HIV patients: low CD4 cell count. RESULTS: We included 3503 HIV patients...

Selenium status and risk of prostate cancer in a Danish population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Outzen, Malene; Tjønneland, Anne; Larsen, Erik Huusfeldt

2016-01-01

Low-Se status may be associated with a higher risk of notably advanced prostate cancer. In a Danish population with a relatively low Se intake, we investigated the association between pre-diagnostic Se status and (1) the risk of total, advanced and high-grade prostate cancer and (2) all-cause and...

Sun-protective behaviors in populations at high risk for skin cancer

Science.gov (United States)

Diao, Diana Y; Lee, Tim K

2014-01-01

Over 3 million new cases of skin cancer are diagnosed in the US annually. Melanoma, a subtype of skin cancer that can be fatal if the disease is not detected and treated at an early stage, is the most common cancer for those aged 25–29 years and the second most common cancer in adolescents and young adults aged 15–29 years. The primary carcinogen for the genesis of skin cancers is ultraviolet light from solar radiation and tanning beds. In spite of massive health campaigns to raise public awareness on ultraviolet radiation, sun-protective practices still fall behind. A plausible explanation is the lack of behavioral change in the populations at risk; in this review article, we examine sun-protective behavior in the four high-risk skin cancer groups: skin cancer survivors, individuals with a family history of melanoma, individuals with physical characteristics associated with skin cancer risk, and organ transplantation patients. Findings in the literature demonstrate that increased knowledge and awareness does not consequently translate into behavioral changes in practice. Behavior can differ as a result of different attitudes and beliefs, depending on the population at risk. Thus, intervention should be tailored to the population targeted. A multidisciplinary health team providing consultation and education is required to influence these much needed changes. PMID:24379732

Lifestyle modifies obesity-associated risk of cardiovascular disease in a genetically homogeneous population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Marit E; Borch-Johnsen, Knut; Bjerregaard, Peter

2006-01-01

BACKGROUND: The association between obesity and cardiovascular disease risk differs across populations. Whether such differences in obesity-related risk factors exist within population groups of the same genetic origin but with differences in lifestyle remains to be determined. OBJECTIVE: The aim...... was to analyze whether obesity was associated with the same degree of metabolic disturbances in 2 groups of genetically homogeneous Inuit who were exposed to considerable differences in lifestyle. DESIGN: We studied obesity and cardiovascular disease risk factors in a cross-sectional population survey of 2311...... Inuit living in Denmark (n = 995) or Greenland (n = 1316). The participants received an oral-glucose-tolerance test. Blood tests were supplemented by structured interviews and anthropometric and blood pressure measurements. RESULTS: The trend in the association between obesity and metabolic effects...

Evaluation of population density and distribution criteria in nuclear power plant siting

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Young, M.

1994-06-01

The NRC has proposed revisions to 10 CFR 100 which include the codification of nuclear reactor site population density limits to 500 people per square mile, at the siting stage, averaged over any radial distance out to 30 miles, and 1,000 people per square mile within the 40-year lifetime of a nuclear plant. This study examined whether there are less restrictive alternative population density and/or distribution criteria which would provide equivalent or better protection to human health in the unlikely event of a nuclear accident. This study did not attempt to directly address the issue of actual population density limits because there are no US risk standards established for the evaluation of population density limits. Calculations were performed using source terms for both a current generation light water reactor (LWR) and an advanced light water reactor (ALWR) design. The results of this study suggest that measures which address the distribution of the population density, including emergency response conditions, could result in lower average individual risks to the public than the proposed guidelines that require controlling average population density. Studies also indicate that an exclusion zone size, determined by emergency response conditions and reactor design (power level and safety features), would better serve to protect public health than a rigid standard applied to all sites

High coffee consumption and different brewing methods in relation to postmenopausal endometrial cancer risk in the Norwegian women and cancer study: a population-based prospective study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gavrilyuk, Oxana; Braaten, Tonje; Skeie, Guri; Weiderpass, Elisabete; Dumeaux, Vanessa; Lund, Eiliv

2014-03-25

Coffee and its compounds have been proposed to inhibit endometrial carcinogenesis. Studies in the Norwegian population can be especially interesting due to the high coffee consumption and increasing incidence of endometrial cancer in the country. A total of 97 926 postmenopausal Norwegian women from the population-based prospective Norwegian Women and Cancer (NOWAC) Study, were included in the present analysis. We evaluated the general association between total coffee consumption and endometrial cancer risk as well as the possible impact of brewing method. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to estimate risks, and heterogeneity tests were performed to compare brewing methods. During an average of 10.9 years of follow-up, 462 incident endometrial cancer cases were identified. After multivariate adjustment, significant risk reduction was found among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day of coffee with a hazard ratio of 0.52 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.34-0.79). However, we did not observe a significant dose-response relationship. No significant heterogeneity in risk was found when comparing filtered and boiled coffee brewing methods. A reduction in endometrial cancer risk was observed in subgroup analyses among participants who drank ≥8 cups/day and had a body mass index ≥25 kg/m2, and in current smokers. These data suggest that in this population with high coffee consumption, endometrial cancer risk decreases in women consuming ≥8 cups/day, independent of brewing method.

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Large, Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Survivors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boekel, Naomi B.; Schaapveld, Michael; Gietema, Jourik A.; Russell, Nicola S.; Poortmans, Philip; Theuws, Jacqueline C.M.; Schinagl, Dominic A.X.; Rietveld, Derek H.F.; Versteegh, Michel I.M.; Visser, Otto; Rutgers, Emiel J.T.; Aleman, Berthe M.P.; Leeuwen, Flora E. van

2016-01-01

Purpose: To conduct a large, population-based study on cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors treated in 1989 or later. Methods and Materials: A large, population-based cohort comprising 70,230 surgically treated stage I to III BC patients diagnosed before age 75 years between 1989 and 2005 was linked with population-based registries for CVD. Cardiovascular disease risks were compared with the general population, and within the cohort using competing risk analyses. Results: Compared with the general Dutch population, BC patients had a slightly lower CVD mortality risk (standardized mortality ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.97). Only death due to valvular heart disease was more frequent (standardized mortality ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52). Left-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy increased the risk of any cardiovascular event compared with both surgery alone (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.36) and right-sided radiation therapy (sHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36). Radiation-associated risks were found for not only ischemic heart disease, but also for valvular heart disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). Risks were more pronounced in patients aged <50 years at BC diagnosis (sHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07-2.04 for left- vs right-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy). Left- versus right-sided radiation therapy after wide local excision did not increase the risk of all CVD combined, yet an increased ischemic heart disease risk was found (sHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28). Analyses including detailed radiation therapy information showed an increased CVD risk for left-sided chest wall irradiation alone, left-sided breast irradiation alone, and internal mammary chain field irradiation, all compared with right-sided breast irradiation alone. Compared with patients not treated with chemotherapy, chemotherapy used ≥1997 (ie, anthracyline-based chemotherapy) increased the risk of CHF (sHR 1.35, 95% CI 1

Cardiovascular Disease Risk in a Large, Population-Based Cohort of Breast Cancer Survivors

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Boekel, Naomi B.; Schaapveld, Michael [Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Gietema, Jourik A. [Medical Oncology, University Medical Center Groningen, Groningen (Netherlands); Russell, Nicola S. [Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Poortmans, Philip [Radiation Oncology, Institute Verbeeten, Tilburg (Netherlands); Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Theuws, Jacqueline C.M. [Radiotherapy, Catharina Hospital Eindhoven, Eindhoven (Netherlands); Schinagl, Dominic A.X. [Radiation Oncology, Radboud University Nijmegen Medical Center, Nijmegen (Netherlands); Rietveld, Derek H.F. [Radiation Oncology, VU University Medical Center Amsterdam, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Versteegh, Michel I.M. [Steering Committee Cardiac Interventions Netherlands, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden (Netherlands); Visser, Otto [Registration and Research, Comprehensive Cancer Center The Netherlands, Utrecht (Netherlands); Rutgers, Emiel J.T. [Surgery, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Aleman, Berthe M.P. [Radiation Oncology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands); Leeuwen, Flora E. van, E-mail: f.v.leeuwen@nki.nl [Epidemiology, Netherlands Cancer Institute, Amsterdam (Netherlands)

2016-04-01

Purpose: To conduct a large, population-based study on cardiovascular disease (CVD) in breast cancer (BC) survivors treated in 1989 or later. Methods and Materials: A large, population-based cohort comprising 70,230 surgically treated stage I to III BC patients diagnosed before age 75 years between 1989 and 2005 was linked with population-based registries for CVD. Cardiovascular disease risks were compared with the general population, and within the cohort using competing risk analyses. Results: Compared with the general Dutch population, BC patients had a slightly lower CVD mortality risk (standardized mortality ratio 0.92, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.88-0.97). Only death due to valvular heart disease was more frequent (standardized mortality ratio 1.28, 95% CI 1.08-1.52). Left-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy increased the risk of any cardiovascular event compared with both surgery alone (subdistribution hazard ratio (sHR) 1.23, 95% CI 1.11-1.36) and right-sided radiation therapy (sHR 1.19, 95% CI 1.04-1.36). Radiation-associated risks were found for not only ischemic heart disease, but also for valvular heart disease and congestive heart failure (CHF). Risks were more pronounced in patients aged <50 years at BC diagnosis (sHR 1.48, 95% CI 1.07-2.04 for left- vs right-sided radiation therapy after mastectomy). Left- versus right-sided radiation therapy after wide local excision did not increase the risk of all CVD combined, yet an increased ischemic heart disease risk was found (sHR 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.28). Analyses including detailed radiation therapy information showed an increased CVD risk for left-sided chest wall irradiation alone, left-sided breast irradiation alone, and internal mammary chain field irradiation, all compared with right-sided breast irradiation alone. Compared with patients not treated with chemotherapy, chemotherapy used ≥1997 (ie, anthracyline-based chemotherapy) increased the risk of CHF (sHR 1.35, 95% CI 1

Sun-protective behaviors in populations at high risk for skin cancer

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Diao DY

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Diana Y Diao,1 Tim K Lee1,21Department of Dermatology and Skin Science, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada; 2Cancer Control Research Program, BC Cancer Agency, Vancouver, British Columbia, CanadaAbstract: Over 3 million new cases of skin cancer are diagnosed in the US annually. Melanoma, a subtype of skin cancer that can be fatal if the disease is not detected and treated at an early stage, is the most common cancer for those aged 25–29 years and the second most common cancer in adolescents and young adults aged 15–29 years. The primary carcinogen for the genesis of skin cancers is ultraviolet light from solar radiation and tanning beds. In spite of massive health campaigns to raise public awareness on ultraviolet radiation, sun-protective practices still fall behind. A plausible explanation is the lack of behavioral change in the populations at risk; in this review article, we examine sun-protective behavior in the four high-risk skin cancer groups: skin cancer survivors, individuals with a family history of melanoma, individuals with physical characteristics associated with skin cancer risk, and organ transplantation patients. Findings in the literature demonstrate that increased knowledge and awareness does not consequently translate into behavioral changes in practice. Behavior can differ as a result of different attitudes and beliefs, depending on the population at risk. Thus, intervention should be tailored to the population targeted. A multidisciplinary health team providing consultation and education is required to influence these much needed changes.Keywords: skin cancer, melanoma, risk, prevention, behaviour

Identification of target risk groups for population-based Clostridium difficile infection prevention strategies using a population attributable risk approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Oh, Sung-Hee; Kang, Hye-Young

2018-01-01

We aimed to determine risk factors associated with Clostridium difficile infection (CDI) and assess the contributions of these factors on CDI burden. We conducted a 1:4 matched case-control study using a national claims dataset. Cases were incident CDI without a history of CDI in the previous 84 days, and were age- and sex-matched with control patients. We ascertained exposure, defined as a history of morbidities and drug use within 90 days. The population attributable risk (PAR) percent for risk factors was estimated using odds ratios (ORs) obtained from the case-control study. Overall, the strongest CDI-associated risk factors, which have significant contributions to the CDI burden as well, were the experience of gastroenteritis (OR=5.08, PAR%=17.09%) and use of antibiotics (OR=1.69, PAR%=19.00%), followed by the experiences of female pelvic infection, irritable bowel syndrome, inflammatory bowel disease, and pneumonia, and use of proton-pump inhibitors (OR=1.52-2.37, PAR%=1.95-2.90). The control of risk factors that had strong association with CDI and affected large proportions of total CDI cases would be beneficial for CDI prevention. We suggest performing CDI testing for symptomatic patients with gastroenteritis and implementing antibiotics stewardship. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

The failure rate dynamics in heterogeneous populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cha, Ji Hwan; Finkelstein, Maxim

2013-01-01

Most populations encountered in real world are heterogeneous. In reliability applications, the mixture (observed) failure rate, obviously, can be considered as a measure of ‘average’ quality in these populations. However, in addition to this average measure, some variability characteristics for failure rates can be very helpful in describing the time-dependent changes in quality of heterogeneous populations. In this paper, we discuss variance and the coefficient of variation of the corresponding random failure rate as variability measures for items in heterogeneous populations. Furthermore, there is often a risk that items of poor quality are selected for important missions. Therefore, along with the ‘average quality’ of a population, more ‘conservative’ quality measures should be also defined and studied. For this purpose, we propose the percentile and the tail-mixture of the failure rates as the corresponding conservative measures. Some illustrative examples are given. -- Highlights: ► This paper provides the insight on the variability measures in heterogeneous populations. ► The conservative quality measures in heterogeneous populations are defined. ► The utility of these measures is illustrated by meaningful examples. ► This paper provides a better understanding of the dynamics in heterogeneous populations

Electromagnetic fields and safety : information and risk perception in Spanish population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fernandez, A.; Guillen, V.

2005-01-01

There is a lack of knowledge about both the information the general population in Spain has on electromagnetic fields (EMF) and the public risk perception regarding the exposure to non-ionizing EMF emitting sources. The aims of the present preliminary survey were to assess what the Spanish population knew about EMF, to explore their health risk perception associated with the exposure to commonly used sources of non-ionizing radiation; and to know their risk perception regarding cell towers. A total number of 801 adult participants, randomly selected answered a telephone interview based on a 13-item semi-structured questionnaire. Sixty-nine per cent of the interviewees reported having no knowledge about electromagnetic fields. Up to 88.9% mentioned to have a little or no information at all on the health effects of EMF. Comparing risk perception regarding several commonly used devices, mobile telephones and microwave ovens were associated with a higher heath risk than TV and computers. Of those who believed that the devices mentioned were linked with health problems, 40.7% associated them with cancer. Regarding base stations, 52.1% of the sample envisioned such sources as a health risk, and of those who believed so, the majority linked the proximity of base stations with cancer. Gender differences were observed in risk perception. (Author) 16 refs

Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett's esophagus in an Australian population.

Science.gov (United States)

Ireland, Colin J; Gordon, Andrea L; Thompson, Sarah K; Watson, David I; Whiteman, David C; Reed, Richard L; Esterman, Adrian

2018-01-01

Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett's esophagus (BE). While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78-0.87). The Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was p =0.14. Minimizing false positives and false negatives, the model achieved a sensitivity of 74% and a specificity of 73%. This study has validated a risk prediction model for BE that has a higher sensitivity than previous models.

Risk factors for child maltreatment in an Australian population-based birth cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Doidge, James C; Higgins, Daryl J; Delfabbro, Paul; Segal, Leonie

2017-02-01

Child maltreatment and other adverse childhood experiences adversely influence population health and socioeconomic outcomes. Knowledge of the risk factors for child maltreatment can be used to identify children at risk and may represent opportunities for prevention. We examined a range of possible child, parent and family risk factors for child maltreatment in a prospective 27-year population-based birth cohort of 2443 Australians. Physical abuse, sexual abuse, emotional abuse, neglect and witnessing of domestic violence were recorded retrospectively in early adulthood. Potential risk factors were collected prospectively during childhood or reported retrospectively. Associations were estimated using bivariate and multivariate logistic regressions and combined into cumulative risk scores. Higher levels of economic disadvantage, poor parental mental health and substance use, and social instability were strongly associated with increased risk of child maltreatment. Indicators of child health displayed mixed associations and infant temperament was uncorrelated to maltreatment. Some differences were observed across types of maltreatment but risk profiles were generally similar. In multivariate analyses, nine independent risk factors were identified, including some that are potentially modifiable: economic disadvantage and parental substance use problems. Risk of maltreatment increased exponentially with the number of risk factors experienced, with prevalence of maltreatment in the highest risk groups exceeding 80%. A cumulative risk score based on the independent risk factors allowed identification of individuals at very high risk of maltreatment, while a score that incorporated all significant risk and protective factors provided better identification of low-risk individuals. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Post-model selection inference and model averaging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Georges Nguefack-Tsague

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Although model selection is routinely used in practice nowadays, little is known about its precise effects on any subsequent inference that is carried out. The same goes for the effects induced by the closely related technique of model averaging. This paper is concerned with the use of the same data first to select a model and then to carry out inference, in particular point estimation and point prediction. The properties of the resulting estimator, called a post-model-selection estimator (PMSE, are hard to derive. Using selection criteria such as hypothesis testing, AIC, BIC, HQ and Cp, we illustrate that, in terms of risk function, no single PMSE dominates the others. The same conclusion holds more generally for any penalised likelihood information criterion. We also compare various model averaging schemes and show that no single one dominates the others in terms of risk function. Since PMSEs can be regarded as a special case of model averaging, with 0-1 random-weights, we propose a connection between the two theories, in the frequentist approach, by taking account of the selection procedure when performing model averaging. We illustrate the point by simulating a simple linear regression model.

Is the Population Detected by Screening in China Truly at High Risk of Stroke?

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Yuan; Wang, Jing; Cheng, Juan; Liang, Xuan; Li, Xin; Lu, Wenli

2018-04-09

The Chinese Stroke Screening and Prevention Project (CSSPP) considers patients with 3 or more risk factors to be at high risk of stroke, and does not quantitatively assess the risk for stroke. However, to detect high-risk groups more efficiently, a health risk appraisal (HRA) model should be used to assess individual risk of stroke. The odds ratios for the 8 risk factors for stroke were pooled and the data were used to develop an HRA model to predict individuals' risks of developing stroke in the next 5 years. The Chinese screening project and HRA screening strategies were then compared. We assessed 4196 Chinese individuals who received checkups in 2015. The average 5-year risk of stroke was 5.81‰, with men being at higher risk of stroke than women over that period. The average 5-year risk of stroke also increased with the number of risk factors. 932 individuals (22.2%) were identified as being at high risk of stroke according to CSSPP, whereas 318 individuals with fewer than 3 risk factors were considered being at low risk despite having a 5-year risk of stroke greater than 4.0% by our assessment. Notably, among patients with hypertension and diabetes who were classified as being at low risk of stroke by the CSSPP, the HRA recognized 15.9% and 14.3% as being at high risk of stroke, respectively. All 8 major risk factors affect stroke risk differently, and the efficiency of clustering these risk factors might be improved by considering the relative risk of each factor with an HRA model. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Fracture risk assessed by Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX) compared with fracture risk derived from population fracture rates

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rubin, Katrine Hass; Abrahamsen, Bo; Hermann, Anne Pernille

2011-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the performance of the Swedish version of Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX)) without bone mass density (BMD) in a Danish population to examine the possibility of applying this version to Danish women. METHODS: From the Danish National Register of social security numbers, we...

Impact of risk factors on cardiovascular risk: a perspective on risk estimation in a Swiss population.

Science.gov (United States)

Chrubasik, Sigrun A; Chrubasik, Cosima A; Piper, Jörg; Schulte-Moenting, Juergen; Erne, Paul

2015-01-01

In models and scores for estimating cardiovascular risk (CVR), the relative weightings given to blood pressure measurements (BPMs), and biometric and laboratory variables are such that even large differences in blood pressure lead to rather low differences in the resulting total risk when compared with other concurrent risk factors. We evaluated this phenomenon based on the PROCAM score, using BPMs made by volunteer subjects at home (HBPMs) and automated ambulatory BPMs (ABPMs) carried out in the same subjects. A total of 153 volunteers provided the data needed to estimate their CVR by means of the PROCAM formula. Differences (deltaCVR) between the risk estimated by entering the ABPM and that estimated with the HBPM were compared with the differences (deltaBPM) between the ABPM and the corresponding HBPM. In addition to the median values (= second quartile), the first and third quartiles of blood pressure profiles were also considered. PROCAM risk values were converted to European Society of Cardiology (ESC) risk values and all participants were assigned to the risk groups low, medium and high. Based on the PROCAM score, 132 participants had a low risk for suffering myocardial infarction, 16 a medium risk and 5 a high risk. The calculated ESC scores classified 125 participants into the low-risk group, 26 into the medium- and 2 into the high-risk group for death from a cardiovascular event. Mean ABPM tended to be higher than mean HBPM. Use of mean systolic ABPM or HBPM in the PROCAM formula had no major impact on the risk level. Our observations are in agreement with the rather low weighting of blood pressure as risk determinant in the PROCAM score. BPMs assessed with different methods had relatively little impact on estimation of cardiovascular risk in the given context of other important determinants. The risk calculations in our unselected population reflect the given classification of Switzerland as a so-called cardiovascular "low risk country".

Hyperlipemia in a population of aged donkeys: description, prevalence, and potential risk factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Burden, F A; Du Toit, N; Hazell-Smith, E; Trawford, A F

2011-01-01

Hyperlipemia is a common disorder of the donkey, with mortality rates of up to 80% reported. Such a poor prognosis makes prevention of this disorder or amelioration in the early stages crucial. The objective of this study was to describe and determine the prevalence of hyperlipemia in a population of donkeys and to determine risk factors for development of the disease. A total of 449 cases were investigated from a population of 3829 donkeys; donkeys were resident at The Donkey Sanctuary, a charity providing refuge for unwanted donkeys in the UK. Animals were selected on the basis of presence of clinical disease. A retrospective case-control study design was used, and all donkeys presenting with hyperlipemia over a 4-year period were included. Each case was matched with 2 controls that had not suffered from hyperlipemia in the previous month. Multivariable analysis was carried out to determine risk factors. A total of 449 clinical cases of hyperlipemia were reported with an associated mortality rate of 48.5%. Concurrent disease was present in 72% of donkeys and was the greatest risk factor (OR = 76.98); others included cardboard bedding (OR = 3.86), movement (OR = 3.94), weight loss (OR = 6.4), dental disease (OR = 1.73), and concentrate feeding (OR = 1.87). This study shows that this population of donkeys in the UK often develops hyperlipemia, particularly in response to stress or primary illness, and provides useful insights in to health and management risk factors that may be addressed to decrease the risk of hyperlipemia both in the study population and in other similar donkey populations. Copyright © 2011 by the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

Calculation of the quantities of radiation risk in Japanese population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakamura, Yuji

1993-01-01

The purpose of this study was to reevaluate various kinds of indicators of radiation risks using additive projection and multiplicative projection models, as proposed by ICRP. Total death probability rate (1985) and probability rate of cancer death (1983 to 1987) were used as data base. The following indicators were calculated: total conditional death probability rate and conditional death probability rate; normalized death age probability density and unconditional death probability rate; attributable life-time probability of cancer death; and other risk indicators, including mean loss of life expectancy, reduction of life expectancy, mean annually committed probability of attributable cancer deaths, annual extra probability of cancer death, probability density of the age of death, maximum relative death probability rate (age at maximum relative rate), and probabilistic aging. In terms of calculations of these risk indicators for the comprehensive cancer death, there was no great difference between the Japanese population and ICRP. When calculating according to sites of cancer, calculations of indicators for cancer mortality (or cancer cure rate) in the Japanese population might bedifferent from ICRP's calculation. (N.K.) different from ICRP's calculations. (N.K.)

Risk of Cardiovascular Disease in an Aging HIV Population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Martin-Iguacel, R; Llibre, J M; Friis-Moller, N

2015-01-01

With more effective and widespread antiretroviral treatment, the overall incidence of AIDS- or HIV-related death has decreased dramatically. Consequently, as patients are aging, cardiovascular disease (CVD) has emerged as an important cause of morbidity and mortality in the HIV population....... The incidence of CVD overall in HIV is relatively low, but it is approximately 1.5-2-fold higher than that seen in age-matched HIV-uninfected individuals. Multiple factors are believed to explain this excess in risk such as overrepresentation of traditional cardiovascular risk factors (particularly smoking...

Incidence and risk factors for post-traumatic stress disorder in a population affected by a severe flood.

Science.gov (United States)

Fontalba-Navas, A; Lucas-Borja, M E; Gil-Aguilar, V; Arrebola, J P; Pena-Andreu, J M; Perez, J

2017-03-01

We aimed to study the risk of developing post-traumatic stress disorder (PTSD) symptoms in people who resided in an affected area by an extremely severe flood, and sociodemographic risk factors associated with this condition. A geographic information system (GIS) was used to distribute the rainfall data. A case-control study was developed to study the relationship between PTSD and sociodemographic risk factors. To delineate the areas affected by the flood and the intensity of this rainfall in comparison with historical hydrological data, we employed geographical information systems (GIS). Then, we recruited a representative sample of the affected population and another population sample that lived at the time of this disaster in adjacent geographical areas that were not affected. Both groups were randomly selected in primary care practices, from December 1st 2012 to January 31st 2013. All participants, 70 from the affected areas and 91 from the non-affected, filled a sociodemographic questionnaire and the trauma questionnaire (TQ) to identify and rate PTSD symptoms. Our GIS analysis confirmed that the amount of precipitation in 2012 in the areas affected by the flood was exceptionally high compared with historical average rainfall data (461l per square metre vs 265). Individuals who resided in the affected areas at the time of the flood were at much higher risk of developing PTSD symptoms (OR: 8.18; 95% CI: 3.99-17.59) than those living in adjacent, non-affected localities. Among the sociodemographic variables included in this study, only material and financial losses were strongly associated with the onset of PTSD (P disorder, may help develop effective plans to minimize the negative impact of these natural disasters on public health. Copyright © 2016 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

Predicting Risk of Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus: A Population-Based Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahmut Kilic

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Aim: One of the major risk factors that can cause death in the world is also type-2 diabetes mellitus (DM. Turkey does not have a vehicle in the society has been formulate predicting the risk of developing DM. The purpose of this study is to determine the level of DM risk in Turkish society using the Finnish Diabetes Risk Score (FINDRISC tool. Material and Method: This is a cross-sectional study. The data has been obtained from %u201Cbehavioral risk factors for chronic diseases study%u201D that was made in the province of Yozgat, in 2011. The study population included 825 subjects between 25 to 79 years old who had measured their blood sugar before, but who were not diagnosed DM. DM risk level was calculated using FINDRISC tool. The scale score is between 0-26, %u226515 points are considered high risk (risk ratio 1/3. In analyzing the data, t-test, ANOVA and chi-square test and binary logistic regression were used. Results: Of the subjects 10 years of DM risk score%u2019s mean was 8.8 ± 4.6. When FINDRISC score low / medium and high divided into 2 groups, the proportion of those in the high risk group is 11.5%. This rate is similar to the 10-year incidence of DM calculated (11-12.4% for Turkey. In this study, all of the factors taken into FINDRISC calculations were statistically significant (p 0.05. Discussion: FINDRISC used to be in the DM risk calculations of Turkish population. One out of every ten adults are at high risk of developing DM in 10 years. To avoid this problem urgently needs to be implemented by the various programs on an individual and societal level.

Nuclear station safety standardization from a risk concept

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veksler, L.M.

1986-01-01

This paper presents a method of standardizing safety-system reliability on an entirely new basis: all hypothetical accidents are approximated as groups, for each of which one proposes permissible frequencies on the basis of the risk concept. In this risk concept, the ''average person'' is a person living near a nuclear station or working in it, who is of average age, average state of health, and so on. Therefore, the risk can be found by summing the estimated individual risks for a particular group in the population followed by division by the number of people in that group. Basic assumptions in deriving permissible safety-system reliability are presented. Estimated permissible failure probabilities are given to illustrate the proposed method and to refine the initial data. The probabilities may also be used to lay down the reliability requirements for safety systems in particular nuclear stations on the risk basis

The average number of alpha-particle hits to the cell nucleus required to eradicate a tumour cell population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Roeske, John C; Stinchcomb, Thomas G

2006-01-01

Alpha-particle emitters are currently being considered for the treatment of micrometastatic disease. Based on in vitro studies, it has been speculated that only a few alpha-particle hits to the cell nucleus are considered lethal. However, such estimates do not consider the stochastic variations in the number of alpha-particle hits, energy deposited, or in the cell survival process itself. Using a tumour control probability (TCP) model for alpha-particle emitters, we derive an estimate of the average number of hits to the cell nucleus required to provide a high probability of eradicating a tumour cell population. In simulation studies, our results demonstrate that the average number of hits required to achieve a 90% TCP for 10 4 clonogenic cells ranges from 18 to 108. Those cells that have large cell nuclei, high radiosensitivities and alpha-particle emissions occurring primarily in the nuclei tended to require more hits. As the clinical implementation of alpha-particle emitters is considered, this type of analysis may be useful in interpreting clinical results and in designing treatment strategies to achieve a favourable therapeutic outcome. (note)

The population attributable risk of nutrition and lifestyle on hip fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Pripp, Are Hugo; Dahl, Ola E

2015-01-01

Norway is among the countries with the highest incidence of hip fractures, and how to reduce this incidence is a major public health concern. The population attributable risk (PAR), which measures the portion of hip fracture incidences in the population that can be attributed to an exposure if there is a causal relationship, was assessed for the exposure to excessive alcohol consumption, being underweight, low calcium from dairy products, low physical activity and current tobacco smoking. The risk ratio (RR) of the exposures summarized from systematic reviews and meta-analyses, as well as their prevalence from national statistics or Norwegian population-based studies, were used to estimate PARs. Low physical activity and current tobacco smoking had the highest RR for hip fractures, with 1.65 (95% CI 1.50-1.81) and 1.52 (95% CI 1.41-1.63). Low physical activity had the highest prevalence in the population (27.4%) and the highest PAR (0.151), followed by tobacco smoking (PAR = 0.081) and excessive alcohol consumption (PAR = 0.01). By comparison, being underweight and low calcium from dairy products had negligible PAR estimates. From a public health perspective, increased daily physical activity is the most promising intervention to reduce the incidence of hip fractures. Reduced smoking and alcohol consumption are of relevance, but other health risks related to these exposures are of greater public health concern. Low body weight and nutritional calcium from dairy products seem to be of less importance.

Dietary exposure and risk assessment of polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans and dioxin-like polychlorinated biphenyls of the population in the Region of Valencia (Spain).

Science.gov (United States)

Quijano, Leyre; Marín, Silvia; Millan, Encarnación; Yusà, Vicent; Font, Guillermina; Pardo, Olga

2018-04-01

Dietary exposure of the Valencia Region population to polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins (PCDDs), polychlorinated dibenzofurans (PCDFs) and PCBs was assessed in the Region of Valencia in 2010-2011. A total of 7700 food samples were collected. Occurrence data were combined with consumption data to estimate dietary exposure in adults (>15 years of age) and young people (6-15 years of age). The estimated intake was calculated by a probabilistic approach. Average intake levels (upper-bound scenario) were 1.58 and 2.76 pg toxic equivalent (TEQ) kg -1 body weight (bw) day -1 for adults and young people, respectively. These average intakes are within range of the tolerable daily intake of 1-4 pg WHO-TEQ kg -1 bw day -1 recommended by WHO, and slightly above the tolerable weekly intake (TWI) of 14 pg TEQ kg -1 bw week -1 and the Provisional tolerable monthly intake of 70 pg TEQ kg -1 bw month -1 set by the Scientific Committee on Food and the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food, respectively. These results show that the contamination levels in food and therefore the exposure of the general population to PCDD/Fs and PCBs have declined in this region and therefore show the efficiency of the European risk-management measures. In terms of risk characterisation, the results showed that, under the upper-bound scenario, 22% of the adult and 58% of the young people population could exceed the TWI.

A joint model of persistent human papillomavirus infection and cervical cancer risk: Implications for cervical cancer screening.

Science.gov (United States)

Katki, Hormuzd A; Cheung, Li C; Fetterman, Barbara; Castle, Philip E; Sundaram, Rajeshwari

2015-10-01

New cervical cancer screening guidelines in the US and many European countries recommend that women get tested for human papillomavirus (HPV). To inform decisions about screening intervals, we calculate the increase in precancer/cancer risk per year of continued HPV infection. However, both time to onset of precancer/cancer and time to HPV clearance are interval-censored, and onset of precancer/cancer strongly informatively censors HPV clearance. We analyze this bivariate informatively interval-censored data by developing a novel joint model for time to clearance of HPV and time to precancer/cancer using shared random-effects, where the estimated mean duration of each woman's HPV infection is a covariate in the submodel for time to precancer/cancer. The model was fit to data on 9,553 HPV-positive/Pap-negative women undergoing cervical cancer screening at Kaiser Permanente Northern California, data that were pivotal to the development of US screening guidelines. We compare the implications for screening intervals of this joint model to those from population-average marginal models of precancer/cancer risk. In particular, after 2 years the marginal population-average precancer/cancer risk was 5%, suggesting a 2-year interval to control population-average risk at 5%. In contrast, the joint model reveals that almost all women exceeding 5% individual risk in 2 years also exceeded 5% in 1 year, suggesting that a 1-year interval is better to control individual risk at 5%. The example suggests that sophisticated risk models capable of predicting individual risk may have different implications than population-average risk models that are currently used for informing medical guideline development.

The Perinatal Risk Index: Early Risks Experienced by Domestic Adoptees in the United States.

Science.gov (United States)

Marceau, Kristine; De Araujo-Greecher, Marielena; Miller, Emily S; Massey, Suena H; Mayes, Linda C; Ganiban, Jody M; Reiss, David; Shaw, Daniel S; Leve, Leslie D; Neiderhiser, Jenae M

2016-01-01

We aimed to assess comprehensively the prevalence of perinatal risks experienced by a potentially high-risk yet understudied population of children domestically adopted in the United States. Data are from participant report and medical records from mothers (n = 580) who completed a domestic adoption placement with nonrelatives at or near birth (Mean placement age = 7 days). We describe a comprehensive measure of perinatal risks, including divergences from previous assessment tools and the incorporation of multiple reporters, and report the prevalence of various types of perinatal risks. The prevalence of each specific risk factor was generally low, although several risks were more prevalent in this sample than estimates from nationally representative publicly available data. Nearly the entire sample (99%) experienced some type of risk exposure. Birth mothers who placed their children for adoption domestically in the US experience higher levels of perinatal risks than the national average, but not for all specific types of risk. Thus, the developmental trajectories of children adopted domestically may systematically differ from the general population to the extent that these specific perinatal risks impact development.

Twenty-Four-Hour Central Pulse Pressure for Cardiovascular Events Prediction in a Low-Cardiovascular-Risk Population: Results From the Bordeaux Cohort.

Science.gov (United States)

Cremer, Antoine; Boulestreau, Romain; Gaillard, Prune; Lainé, Marion; Papaioannou, Georgios; Gosse, Philippe

2018-02-23

Central blood pressure (BP) is a promising marker to identify subjects with higher cardiovascular risk than expected by traditional risk factors. Significant results have been obtained in populations with high cardiovascular risk, but little is known about low-cardiovascular-risk patients, although the differences between central and peripheral BP (amplification) are usually greater in this population. The study aim was to evaluate central BP over 24 hours for cardiovascular event prediction in hypertensive subjects with low cardiovascular risk. Peripheral and central BPs were recorded during clinical visits and over 24 hours in hypertensive patients with low cardiovascular risk (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation ≤5%). Our primary end point is the occurrence of a cardiovascular event during follow-up. To assess the potential interest in central pulse pressure over 24 hours, we performed Cox proportional hazard models analysis and comparison of area under the curves using the contrast test for peripheral and central BP. A cohort of 703 hypertensive subjects from Bordeaux were included. After the first 24 hours of BP measurement, the subjects were then followed up for an average of 112.5±70 months. We recorded 65 cardiovascular events during follow-up. Amplification was found to be significantly associated with cardiovascular events when added to peripheral 24-hour pulse pressure ( P =0.0259). The area under the curve of 24-hour central pulse pressure is significantly more important than area under the curve of office BP ( P =0.0296), and there is a trend of superiority with the area under the curve of peripheral 24-hour pulse pressure. Central pulse pressure over 24 hours improves the prediction of cardiovascular events for hypertensive patients with low cardiovascular risk compared to peripheral pulse pressure. © 2018 The Authors. Published on behalf of the American Heart Association, Inc., by Wiley.

Population structure and infectious disease risk in southern Africa.

Science.gov (United States)

Uren, Caitlin; Möller, Marlo; van Helden, Paul D; Henn, Brenna M; Hoal, Eileen G

2017-06-01

The KhoeSan populations are the earliest known indigenous inhabitants of southern Africa. The relatively recent expansion of Bantu-speaking agropastoralists, as well as European colonial settlement along the south-west coast, dramatically changed patterns of genetic diversity in a region which had been largely isolated for thousands of years. Owing to this unique history, population structure in southern Africa reflects both the underlying KhoeSan genetic diversity as well as differential recent admixture. This population structure has a wide range of biomedical and sociocultural implications; such as changes in disease risk profiles. Here, we consolidate information from various population genetic studies that characterize admixture patterns in southern Africa with an aim to better understand differences in adverse disease phenotypes observed among groups. Our review confirms that ancestry has a direct impact on an individual's immune response to infectious diseases. In addition, we emphasize the importance of collaborative research, especially for populations in southern Africa that have a high incidence of potentially fatal infectious diseases such as HIV and tuberculosis.

Population-Attributable Risk Proportion of Clinical Risk Factors for Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Engmann, Natalie J; Golmakani, Marzieh K; Miglioretti, Diana L; Sprague, Brian L; Kerlikowske, Karla

2017-09-01

Many established breast cancer risk factors are used in clinical risk prediction models, although the proportion of breast cancers explained by these factors is unknown. To determine the population-attributable risk proportion (PARP) for breast cancer associated with clinical breast cancer risk factors among premenopausal and postmenopausal women. Case-control study with 1:10 matching on age, year of risk factor assessment, and Breast Cancer Surveillance Consortium (BCSC) registry. Risk factor data were collected prospectively from January 1, 1996, through October 31, 2012, from BCSC community-based breast imaging facilities. A total of 18 437 women with invasive breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ were enrolled as cases and matched to 184 309 women without breast cancer, with a total of 58 146 premenopausal and 144 600 postmenopausal women enrolled in the study. Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) breast density (heterogeneously or extremely dense vs scattered fibroglandular densities), first-degree family history of breast cancer, body mass index (>25 vs 18.5-25), history of benign breast biopsy, and nulliparity or age at first birth (≥30 years vs breast cancer. Of the 18 437 women with breast cancer, the mean (SD) age was 46.3 (3.7) years among premenopausal women and 61.7 (7.2) years among the postmenopausal women. Overall, 4747 (89.8%) premenopausal and 12 502 (95.1%) postmenopausal women with breast cancer had at least 1 breast cancer risk factor. The combined PARP of all risk factors was 52.7% (95% CI, 49.1%-56.3%) among premenopausal women and 54.7% (95% CI, 46.5%-54.7%) among postmenopausal women. Breast density was the most prevalent risk factor for both premenopausal and postmenopausal women and had the largest effect on the PARP; 39.3% (95% CI, 36.6%-42.0%) of premenopausal and 26.2% (95% CI, 24.4%-28.0%) of postmenopausal breast cancers could potentially be averted if all women with heterogeneously or extremely dense

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Fowler, Mike S; Ruokolainen, Lasse

2013-01-01

The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies) dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies) in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate). Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental) series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback) models: autoregressive [AR(1)] and sinusoidal (1/f) models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1) models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing) populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1) methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We must let

Full likelihood analysis of genetic risk with variable age at onset disease--combining population-based registry data and demographic information.

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Janne Pitkäniemi

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: In genetic studies of rare complex diseases it is common to ascertain familial data from population based registries through all incident cases diagnosed during a pre-defined enrollment period. Such an ascertainment procedure is typically taken into account in the statistical analysis of the familial data by constructing either a retrospective or prospective likelihood expression, which conditions on the ascertainment event. Both of these approaches lead to a substantial loss of valuable data. METHODOLOGY AND FINDINGS: Here we consider instead the possibilities provided by a Bayesian approach to risk analysis, which also incorporates the ascertainment procedure and reference information concerning the genetic composition of the target population to the considered statistical model. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian hierarchical survival model does not require the considered genotype or haplotype effects be expressed as functions of corresponding allelic effects. Our modeling strategy is illustrated by a risk analysis of type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1D in the Finnish population-based on the HLA-A, HLA-B and DRB1 human leucocyte antigen (HLA information available for both ascertained sibships and a large number of unrelated individuals from the Finnish bone marrow donor registry. The heterozygous genotype DR3/DR4 at the DRB1 locus was associated with the lowest predictive probability of T1D free survival to the age of 15, the estimate being 0.936 (0.926; 0.945 95% credible interval compared to the average population T1D free survival probability of 0.995. SIGNIFICANCE: The proposed statistical method can be modified to other population-based family data ascertained from a disease registry provided that the ascertainment process is well documented, and that external information concerning the sizes of birth cohorts and a suitable reference sample are available. We confirm the earlier findings from the same data concerning the HLA-DR3

Differences in the distribution of risk factors for stroke among the high-risk population in urban and rural areas of Eastern China.

Science.gov (United States)

Mi, Te; Sun, Shangwen; Du, Yifeng; Guo, Shougang; Cong, Lin; Cao, Mingfeng; Sun, Qinjian; Sun, Yi; Qu, Chuanqiang

2016-05-01

Considering the program of screening for risk factors of stroke in Eastern China, the aim of this study was to compare the distribution differences in risk factors for stroke among the high-risk population living in urban and rural areas. A total of 231,289 residents were screened and basic information collected. Risk factors for stroke among the high-risk population were compared between the urban and rural groups. A total of 117,776 high-risk residents from urban areas and 113,513 from rural areas were included in the analysis. The prevalence of hypertension was much higher in rural areas (73.3%) than that in urban areas (64.1%). Dyslipidemia (48.9% vs. 26.9%), sport lack (46.6% vs. 31.6%), diabetes mellitus (21.3% vs. 16.5%), and atrial fibrillation (18.7% vs. 9.8%) were more prevalent in the urban group, while smoking (26.5% vs. 28.8%), previous stroke (10.1% vs. 16.9%), and transient ischemic attack (20.9% vs. 24.6%) were less prevalent. Among the population at high risk of stroke, there were significant differences in the distribution of the following risk factors between the urban and rural groups: hypertension, atrial fibrillation, dyslipidemia, lack of physical exercise, and a previous stroke.

Which population groups are most unaware of CVD risks associated with sitting time?

Science.gov (United States)

Duncan, Mitch J; Gilson, Nicholas; Vandelanotte, Corneel

2014-08-01

Prolonged sitting is an emerging risk factor for poor health yet few studies have examined awareness of the risks associated with sitting behaviours. This study identifies the population subgroups with the highest levels of unawareness regarding the cardiovascular disease (CVD) risks associated with sitting behaviours. Adults (n=1256) living in Queensland, Australia completed a telephone-based survey in 2011, analysis conducted in 2013. The survey assessed participant's socio-demographic characteristics, physical activity, sitting behaviours and awareness of CVD risks associated with three sitting behaviours: 1) sitting for prolonged periods, 2), sitting for prolonged periods whilst also engaging in regular physical activity, and 3) breaking up periods of prolonged sitting with short activity breaks. Population sub-groups with the highest levels of unawareness were identified based on socio-demographic and behavioural characteristics using signal detection analysis. Unawareness ranged from 23.3% to 67.0%. Age was the most important variable in differentiating awareness levels; younger adults had higher levels of unawareness. Body mass index, physical activity, TV viewing, employment status and time spent at work also identified population sub-groups. Unawareness of CVD risk for prolonged sitting was moderately high overall. Younger adults had high levels of unawareness on all of the outcomes examined. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased sexually transmitted infection incidence in a low risk population: identifying the risk factors.

LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

Shiely, Frances

2010-04-01

Between 1994 and 2006, the incidence of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) in Ireland has increased by over 300%. Recent literature would suggest that this figure is an underestimation of the true scale of infection. Our objective was to determine the risk factors associated with STI diagnosis in a population with a rapidly increasing STI incidence.

Efficiency or equity? Simulating the impact of high-risk and population intervention strategies for the prevention of disease

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Jonathan M. Platt

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Maximizing both efficiency and equity are core considerations for population health. These considerations can result in tension in population health science as we seek to improve overall population health while achieving equitable health distributions within populations. Limited work has explored empirically the consequences of different population health intervention strategies on the burden of disease and on within- and between-group differences in disease. To address this gap, we compared the impact of four simulated interventions using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. In particular, we focus on assessing how population and high-risk primary prevention and population and high-risk secondary interventions efforts to reduce smoking behavior influence systolic blood pressure (SBP and hypertension, and how such strategies influence inequalities in SBP by income. The greatest reductions in SBP mean and standard deviation resulted from the population secondary prevention. High-risk primary and secondary prevention and population secondary prevention programs all yielded substantial reductions in hypertension prevalence. The effect of population primary prevention did little to decrease population SBP mean and standard deviation, as well as hypertension prevalence. Both high-risk strategies had a larger impact in the low-income population, leading to the greatest narrowing the income-related gap in disease. The population prevention strategies had a larger impact in the high-income population. Population health approaches must consider the potential impact on both the whole population and also on those with different levels of risk for disease within a population, including those in under-represented or under-served groups.

STUDY OF WITHERS HEIGHT AVERAGE PERFORMANCES IN HUCUL HORSE BREED – HROBY BLOODLINE

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M. MAFTEI

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Study of average performances in a population have a huge importance because, regarding a population, the average of phenotypic value is equal with average of genotypic value. So, the studies of the average value of characters offer us an idea about the population genetic level. The biological material is represented by 177 hucul horse from Hroby bloodline divided in 6 stallion families (tab. 1 analyzed at 18, 30 and 42 months old, owned by Lucina hucul stood farm. The average performances for withers height are presented in tab. 2. We can observe here that the average performances of the character are between characteristic limits of the breed. Both sexes have a small grade of variability with a decreasing tendency in the same time with ageing. We can observe a normal evolution in time for growth process with significant differences only at age of 42 months. We can say in this condition that the average performances for withers height have different values, influenced by the age, with a decreasing tendency.

STUDY OF WITHERS HEIGHT AVERAGE PERFORMANCES IN HUCUL HORSE BREED –GORAL BLOODLINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

M. MAFTEI

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Study of average performances in a population have a huge importance because, regarding a population, the average of phenotypic value is equal with average of genotypic value. So, the studies of the average value of characters offer us an idea about the population genetic level. The biological material is represented by 87 hucul horse from Goral bloodline divided in 5 stallion families (tab. 1 analyzed at 18, 30 and 42 months old, owned by Lucina hucul stood farm. The average performances for withers height are presented in tab. 2. We can observe here that the average performances of the character are between characteristic limits of the breed. Both sexes have a small grade of variability with a decreasing tendency in the same time with ageing. We can observe a normal evolution in time for growth process with significant differences only at age of 42 months. We can say in this condition that the average performances for withers height have different values, influenced by the age, with a decreasing tendency.

Association of Cognitive Function and Risk for Elder Abuse in a Community-Dwelling Population

Science.gov (United States)

Dong, XinQi; Simon, Melissa; Rajan, Kumar; Evans, Denis A.

2011-01-01

Aim This study aimed to examine the cross-sectional association between cognitive function and elder abuse. Methods The Chicago Health and Aging Project (CHAP) is a population-based study conducted in a geographically defined community (n = 8,932). We identified 238 CHAP participants who had elder abuse reported to a social services agency. Cognitive function was assessed using the Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), the Symbol Digit Modalities Test (perceptual speed), and both immediate and delayed recall of the East Boston Memory Test (episodic memory). An index of global cognitive function scores was derived by averaging the z-scores of all tests. Logistic regression models were used to assess the association of cognitive function domains and risk of elder abuse. Results After adjusting for confounders, lowest tertiles of global cognition (odd's ratio, OR 4.18, 95% confidence interval, 95% CI 2.44–7.15), MMSE (OR 2.97, 95% CI 1.93–4.57), episodic memory (OR 2.27, 95% CI 1.49–3.43) and perceptual speed (OR 2.37, 95% CI 1.51–3.73) were associated with increased risk of elder abuse. The lowest levels of global cognitive function were associated with an increased risk of physical abuse (OR 3.56, 95% CI 1.08–11.67), emotional abuse (OR 3.02, 95% CI 1.41–6.44), caregiver neglect (OR 6.24, 95% CI 2.68–14.54), and financial exploitation (OR 3.71, 95% CI 1.88–7.32). Conclusion Lower levels of global cognitive function, MMSE, episodic memory and perceptual speed are associated with an increased risk of elder abuse. PMID:22095098

Genetic risk for autism spectrum disorders and neuropsychiatric variation in the general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Robinson, Elise B; St Pourcain, Beate; Anttila, Verneri

2016-01-01

Almost all genetic risk factors for autism spectrum disorders (ASDs) can be found in the general population, but the effects of this risk are unclear in people not ascertained for neuropsychiatric symptoms. Using several large ASD consortium and population-based resources (total n > 38,000), we...... and developmental traits, the severe tail of which can result in diagnosis with an ASD or other neuropsychiatric disorder. A continuum model should inform the design and interpretation of studies of neuropsychiatric disease biology....

Mortality risks and limits to population growth of fishers

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Rick A. Sweitzer; Viorel D. Popescu; Craig M. Thompson; Kathryn L. Purcell; Reginald H. Barrett; Greta M. Wengert; Mourad W. Gabriel; Leslie W. Woods

2015-01-01

Fishers (Pekania pennanti) in the west coast states of Washington, Oregon, and California, USA have not recovered from population declines and the United States Fish and Wildlife Service has proposed options for listing them as threatened. Our objectives were to evaluate differences in survival and mortality risk from natural (e.g., predation, disease, injuries,...

Human-experienced temperature changes exceed global average climate changes for all income groups

Science.gov (United States)

Hsiang, S. M.; Parshall, L.

2009-12-01

Global climate change alters local climates everywhere. Many climate change impacts, such as those affecting health, agriculture and labor productivity, depend on these local climatic changes, not global mean change. Traditional, spatially averaged climate change estimates are strongly influenced by the response of icecaps and oceans, providing limited information on human-experienced climatic changes. If used improperly by decision-makers, these estimates distort estimated costs of climate change. We overlay the IPCC’s 20 GCM simulations on the global population distribution to estimate local climatic changes experienced by the world population in the 21st century. The A1B scenario leads to a well-known rise in global average surface temperature of +2.0°C between the periods 2011-2030 and 2080-2099. Projected on the global population distribution in 2000, the median human will experience an annual average rise of +2.3°C (4.1°F) and the average human will experience a rise of +2.4°C (4.3°F). Less than 1% of the population will experience changes smaller than +1.0°C (1.8°F), while 25% and 10% of the population will experience changes greater than +2.9°C (5.2°F) and +3.5°C (6.2°F) respectively. 67% of the world population experiences temperature changes greater than the area-weighted average change of +2.0°C (3.6°F). Using two approaches to characterize the spatial distribution of income, we show that the wealthiest, middle and poorest thirds of the global population experience similar changes, with no group dominating the global average. Calculations for precipitation indicate that there is little change in average precipitation, but redistributions of precipitation occur in all income groups. These results suggest that economists and policy-makers using spatially averaged estimates of climate change to approximate local changes will systematically and significantly underestimate the impacts of climate change on the 21st century population. Top: The

New risk markers may change the HeartScore risk classification significantly in one-fifth of the population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, M H; Hansen, T W; Christensen, M K

2008-01-01

subjects with estimated risk below 5%. During the following 9.5 years the composite end point of cardiovascular death, non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke (CEP) occurred in 204 subjects. CEP was predicted in all three groups by UACR (HRs: 2.1, 2.1 and 2.3 per 10-fold increase, all P...CRP in subjects with low-moderate risk and UACR and Nt-proBNP in subjects with known diabetes of cardiovascular disease changed HeartScore risk classification significantly in 19% of the population....

The TSH levels and risk of hypothyroidism: Results from a population based prospective cohort study in an Iranian adult's population.

Science.gov (United States)

Aminorroaya, Ashraf; Meamar, Rokhsareh; Amini, Massoud; Feizi, Awat; Nasri, Maryam; Tabatabaei, Azamosadat; Faghihimani, Elham

2017-06-01

The aim of current study was to assess the relationship between serum TSH levels and hypothyroidism risk in the euthyroid population. In a population-based cohort study, a total of 615 individuals with a normal baseline TSH, from of total population (n=2254) in 2006, were followed up for 6years. TSH, total T4, thyroid peroxidase antibody (TPOAb), and thyroglobulin antibody (TgAb) were measured. The relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were calculated based on logistic regression. The Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis along with area under the curve (AUC) was used to prediction of future hypothyroidism. TSH level in 2006 was a significant predictor for overt hypothyroidism, in the total population (RR=3.5) and female (RR=1.37) (all, P valuehypothyroidism from euthyroid. However, this cut off was not observed when we included only negative TPO and TgAbs people in 2006. The RR of hypothyroidism increased gradually when TSH level increased from 2.06-3.6mIU/L to >3.6mIU/L in the total population and both sexes. In women, the risk of overt hypothyroidism was significantly higher in subjects with TSH above 3.6 than those subject with THS levels≤2.05 [RR: (CI95 %), 20.57(2.-207.04), P valuehypothyroidism in future. However, it was not applicable for people with negative TPOAb and negative TgAb. Copyright © 2016 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Extinction risk assessment for the species survival plan (SSP) population of the Bali mynah (Leucopsar rothschildi).

Science.gov (United States)

Earnhardt, Joanne M; Thompson, Steven D; Faust, Lisa J

2009-05-01

The Bali mynah Species Survival Plan (SSP), an Association of Zoos and Aquariums program, strives to maintain the genetic and demographic health of its population, avoid unplanned changes in size, and minimize the risk of population extinction. The SSP population meets current demographic and genetic objectives with a population size of 209 birds at 61 institutions and 96% genetic diversity (GD) retained from the source population. However, participating institutions have expressed concerns regarding space allocation, target population size (TPS), breeding restrictions, inbreeding depression, and harvest in relation to future population availability and viability. Based on these factors, we assess five questions with a quantitative risk assessment, specifically a population viability analysis (PVA) using ZooRisk software. Using an individual-based stochastic model, we project potential population changes under different conditions (e.g. changes in TPS and genetic management) to identify the most effective management actions. Our projections indicate that under current management conditions, population decline and extinction are unlikely and that although GD will decline over 100 years the projected loss does not exceed levels acceptable to population managers (less than 90% GD retained). Model simulations indicate that the combination of two genetic management strategies (i.e. priority breeding based on mean kinship and inbreeding avoidance) benefits the retention of GD and reduces the accumulation of inbreeding. The current TPS (250) is greater than necessary to minimize the risk of extinction for the SSP population but any reduction in TPS must be accompanied by continued application of genetic management. If carefully planned, birds can be harvested for transfer to Bali for a reintroduction program without jeopardizing the SSP population.

Psychological consequences of screening for cardiovascular risk factors in an un-selected general population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Løkkegaard, Thomas; S. Andersen, John; K. Jacobsen, Rikke

2015-01-01

Background: Concerns that general health checks, including screening for risk factors to ischemic heart disease (IHD),have negative psychological consequences seem widely unfounded; however, previous studies are only based on selfreports from participants. Aim: To investigate if risk factor...... screening in healthy adults leads to mental distress in the study population, independent of participation. Methods: The Inter99 study (1999 – 2006) was a randomised intervention in the general population, aiming to prevent IHD by a healthier lifestyle. We included the whole study population, independent......-screening of psychological status did not influence the psychological impact of screening. Conclusions: This large, randomised intervention study supports that screening for risk factors to IHD does not increase mental distress, not even in the mentally or socioeconomically most vulnerable persons.This study included...

LIFETIME LUNG CANCER RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH INDOOR RADON EXPOSURE BASED ON VARIOUS RADON RISK MODELS FOR CANADIAN POPULATION.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Jing

2017-04-01

This study calculates and compares the lifetime lung cancer risks associated with indoor radon exposure based on well-known risk models in the literature; two risk models are from joint studies among miners and the other three models were developed from pooling studies on residential radon exposure from China, Europe and North America respectively. The aim of this article is to make clear that the various models are mathematical descriptions of epidemiologically observed real risks in different environmental settings. The risk from exposure to indoor radon is real and it is normal that variations could exist among different risk models even when they were applied to the same dataset. The results show that lifetime risk estimates vary significantly between the various risk models considered here: the model based on the European residential data provides the lowest risk estimates, while models based on the European miners and Chinese residential pooling with complete dosimetry give the highest values. The lifetime risk estimates based on the EPA/BEIR-VI model lie within this range and agree reasonably well with the averages of risk estimates from the five risk models considered in this study. © Crown copyright 2016.

Is average daily travel time expenditure constant? In search of explanations for an increase in average travel time.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wee, B.; Rietveld, P.; Meurs, H.

2006-01-01

Recent research suggests that the average time spent travelling by the Dutch population has increased over the past decades. However, different data sources show different levels of increase. This paper explores possible causes for this increase. They include a rise in incomes, which has probably

Public awareness of risk factors for cancer among the Japanese general population: A population-based survey

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Sasazuki Shizuka

2006-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The present study aimed to provide information on awareness of the attributable fraction of cancer causes among the Japanese general population. Methods A nationwide representative sample of 2,000 Japanese aged 20 or older was asked about their perception and level of concern about various environmental and genetic risk factors in relation to cancer prevention, as a part of an Omnibus Survey. Interviews were conducted with 1,355 subjects (609 men and 746 women. Results Among 12 risk factor candidates, the attributable fraction of cancer-causing viral and bacterial infection was considered highest (51%, followed by that of tobacco smoking (43%, stress (39%, and endocrine-disrupting chemicals (37%. On the other hand, the attributable fractions of cancer by charred fish and meat (21% and alcohol drinking (22% were considered low compared with other risk factor candidates. For most risk factors, attributable fraction responses were higher in women than in men. As a whole, the subjects tended to respond with higher values than those estimated by epidemiologic evidence in the West. The attributable fraction of cancer speculated to be genetically determined was 32%, while 36% of cancer was considered preventable by improving lifestyle. Conclusion Our results suggest that awareness of the attributable fraction of cancer causes in the Japanese general population tends to be dominated by cancer-causing infection, occupational exposure, air pollution and food additives rather than major lifestyle factors such as diet.

Relative risks for stroke by age, sex, and population based on follow-up of 18 European populations in the MORGAM Project

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Asplund, Kjell; Karvanen, Juha; Giampaoli, Simona

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Within the framework of the MOnica Risk, Genetics, Archiving and Monograph (MORGAM) Project, the variations in impact of classical risk factors of stroke by population, sex, and age were analyzed. METHODS: Follow-up data were collected in 43 cohorts in 18 populations in 8...... European countries surveyed for cardiovascular risk factors. In 93 695 persons aged 19 to 77 years and free of major cardiovascular disease at baseline, total observation years were 1 234 252 and the number of stroke events analyzed was 3142. Hazard ratios were calculated by Cox regression analyses....... RESULTS: Each year of age increased the risk of stroke (fatal and nonfatal together) by 9% (95% CI, 9% to 10%) in men and by 10% (9% to 10%) in women. A 10-mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure involved a similar increase in risk in men (28%; 24% to 32%) and women (25%; 20% to 29%). Smoking conferred...

Perceptions of risk in adults with a low or high risk profile of developing type 2 diabetes; a cross sectional population-bases study.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adriaanse, M.C.; Twisk, J.W.R.; Dekker, J.M.; Spijkerman, A.M.W.; Nijpels, G.; Heine, R.J.; Snoek, F.J.

2008-01-01

Objective: To compare the perceived seriousness and risk of type 2 diabetes among low risk with high risk profile non-diabetic subjects and examine the relationship of perceived risk with multiple self-reported risk indicators. Methods: A cross-sectional population-based study among 4435 low risk

Population risk and subjective public law in atomic energy law

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winter, G.

1979-01-01

On the basis of jurisdiction in atomic law and in other planning and immission laws, the author deals with the question whether a plaintiff can base his action against a nuclear licence on the fact that the general population risk is very high around the chosen site or because of the type of reactors. Even if jurisdiction negates this question because of the function of the administrative-judicial legal protection (individual involvement), it nevertheless regards it as neccessary with the increasing number and size of NPPs, to make the general population risk accessable to actions. The author critically deals with the protection norm theory of the legal dogmatics and that of the practical jurisdiction. He suggests to replace the 'Nachbarklagen' model in atomic laws by a model of 'Eingriffsverwaltung' and to regard the licences primarily as tolerance declarations to the neighbourhood and secondarily as favouring administrative actions. (UN) [de

Risk of second primary colorectal cancer among colorectal cancer cases: A population-based analysis

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Kavitha P Raj

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background: Patients with history of colorectal cancer (CRC are at increased risk for developing a second primary colorectal cancer (SPCRC as compared to the general population. However, the degree of risk is uncertain. Here, we attempt to quantify the risk, using data from the large population-based California Cancer Registry (CCR. Materials and Methods: We analyzed the CCR data for cases with surgically-treated colon and rectal cancer diagnosed during the period 1990-2005 and followed through up to January 2008. We excluded those patients diagnosed with metastatic disease and those in whom SPCRC was diagnosed within 6 months of the diagnosis of the primary CRC. Standardized incidence ratios (SIR with 95% confidence intervals (CI were calculated to evaluate risk as compared to the underlying population after taking into account age, sex, ethnicity, and time at risk. Results: The study cohort consisted of 69809 cases with colon cancer and 34448 with rectal cancer. Among these patients there were 1443 cases of SPCRCs. The SIR for developing SPCRC was higher in colon cancer survivors (SIR=1.4; 95% CI: 1.3 to 1.5 as compared to the underlying population. The incidence of SPCRC was also higher in females (SIR=1.5; 95% CI: 1.3 to 1.6 and Hispanics (SIR=2.0; 95% CI: 1.7 to 2.4 with primary colon cancer. The SIR for developing an SPCRC was higher only among those whose initial tumor was located in the descending colon (SIR=1.6; 95% CI: 1.3 to 2.0 and proximal colon (SIR=1.4; 95% CI: 1.3 to 1.6. Conclusions: Our results confirm that CRC patients, especially females and Hispanics, are at a higher risk of developing SPCRC than the general population. Differential SPCRC risk by colorectal tumor subsite is dependent on gender and ethnicity, underscoring the heterogeneous nature of CRC.

Breast Cancer Screening for Average-Risk Women: Recommendations From the ACR Commission on Breast Imaging.

Science.gov (United States)

Monticciolo, Debra L; Newell, Mary S; Hendrick, R Edward; Helvie, Mark A; Moy, Linda; Monsees, Barbara; Kopans, Daniel B; Eby, Peter R; Sickles, Edward A

2017-09-01

Breast cancer is the most common non-skin cancer and the second leading cause of cancer death for women in the United States. Before the introduction of widespread mammographic screening in the mid-1980s, the death rate from breast cancer in the US had remained unchanged for more than 4 decades. Since 1990, the death rate has declined by at least 38%. Much of this change is attributed to early detection with mammography. ACR breast cancer screening experts have reviewed data from RCTs, observational studies, US screening data, and other peer-reviewed literature to update our recommendations. Mammography screening has consistently been shown to significantly reduce breast cancer mortality over a variety of study designs. The ACR recommends annual mammography screening starting at age 40 for women of average risk of developing breast cancer. Our recommendation is based on maximizing proven benefits, which include a substantial reduction in breast cancer mortality afforded by regular screening and improved treatment options for those diagnosed with breast cancer. The risks associated with mammography screening are also considered to assist women in making an informed choice. Copyright © 2017 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

LINE-1 Hypomethylation is Associated with the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Chinese Population

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Wei, Li [Department of Cardiology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin (China); Liu, Shuchuan [Department of Hematology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin (China); Su, Zhendong; Cheng, Rongchao; Bai, Xiuping; Li, Xueqi, E-mail: xueqi-li@163.com [Department of Cardiology, The Fourth Affiliated Hospital of Harbin Medical University, Harbin (China)

2014-05-15

Global methylation level in blood leukocyte DNA has been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), with inconsistent results in various populations. Similar data are lacking in Chinese population where different genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors may affect DNA methylation and its risk relationship with CHD. To examine whether global methylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. A total of 334 cases with CHD and 788 healthy controls were included. Global methylation in blood leukocyte DNA was estimated by analyzing LINE-1 repeats using bisulfite pyrosequencing. In an initial analysis restricted to control subjects, LINE-1 level reduced significantly with aging, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes. In the case-control analysis, reduced LINE-1 methylation was associated with increased risk of CHD; analysis by quartile revealed odds ratios (95%CI) of 0.9 (0.6-1.4), 1.9 (1.3-2.9) and 2.3 (1.6-3.5) for the third, second and first (lowest) quartile (P{sub trend} < 0.001), respectively, compared to the fourth (highest) quartile. Lower (risk of CHD. The lower LINE-1-related CHD risk estimates tended to be stronger among subjects with the highest tertile of homocysteine (P{sub interaction} = 0.042) and those with diagnosis of hypertension (P{sub interaction} = 0.012). LINE-1 hypomethylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. Potential CHD risk factors such as older age, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes may have impact on global DNA methylation, whereby exerting their effect on CHD risk.

LINE-1 Hypomethylation is Associated with the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Chinese Population

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wei, Li; Liu, Shuchuan; Su, Zhendong; Cheng, Rongchao; Bai, Xiuping; Li, Xueqi

2014-01-01

Global methylation level in blood leukocyte DNA has been associated with the risk of coronary heart disease (CHD), with inconsistent results in various populations. Similar data are lacking in Chinese population where different genetic, lifestyle and environmental factors may affect DNA methylation and its risk relationship with CHD. To examine whether global methylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. A total of 334 cases with CHD and 788 healthy controls were included. Global methylation in blood leukocyte DNA was estimated by analyzing LINE-1 repeats using bisulfite pyrosequencing. In an initial analysis restricted to control subjects, LINE-1 level reduced significantly with aging, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes. In the case-control analysis, reduced LINE-1 methylation was associated with increased risk of CHD; analysis by quartile revealed odds ratios (95%CI) of 0.9 (0.6-1.4), 1.9 (1.3-2.9) and 2.3 (1.6-3.5) for the third, second and first (lowest) quartile (P trend < 0.001), respectively, compared to the fourth (highest) quartile. Lower (risk of CHD. The lower LINE-1-related CHD risk estimates tended to be stronger among subjects with the highest tertile of homocysteine (P interaction = 0.042) and those with diagnosis of hypertension (P interaction = 0.012). LINE-1 hypomethylation is associated with the risk of CHD in Chinese population. Potential CHD risk factors such as older age, elevated total cholesterol, and diagnosis of diabetes may have impact on global DNA methylation, whereby exerting their effect on CHD risk

Risk Factors for Whole Carcass Condemnations in the Swiss Slaughter Cattle Population

Science.gov (United States)

Vial, Flavie; Schärrer, Sara; Reist, Martin

2015-01-01

We used meat-inspection data collected over a period of three years in Switzerland to evaluate slaughterhouse-level, farm-level and animal-level factors that may be associated with whole carcass condemnation (WCC) in cattle after slaughter. The objective of this study was to identify WCC risk factors so they can be communicated to, and managed by, the slaughter industry and veterinary services. During meat inspection, there were three main important predictors of the risk of WCC; the slaughtered animal's sex, age, and the size of the slaughterhouse it was processed in. WCC for injuries and significant weight loss (visible welfare indicators) were almost exclusive to smaller slaughterhouses. Cattle exhibiting clinical syndromes that were not externally visible (e.g. pneumonia lesions) and that are associated with fattening of cattle, end up in larger slaughterhouses. For this reason, it is important for animal health surveillance to collect data from both types of slaughterhouses. Other important risk factors for WCC were on-farm mortality rate and the number of cattle on the farm of origin. This study highlights the fact that the many risk factors for WCC are as complex as the production system itself, with risk factors interacting with one another in ways which are sometimes difficult to interpret biologically. Risk-based surveillance aimed at farms with reoccurring health problems (e.g. a history of above average condemnation rates) may be more appropriate than the selection, of higher-risk animals arriving at slaughter. In Switzerland, the introduction of a benchmarking system that would provide feedback to the farmer with information on condemnation reasons, and his/her performance compared to the national/regional average could be a first step towards improving herd-management and financial returns for producers. PMID:25901751

Risk factors for whole carcass condemnations in the Swiss slaughter cattle population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Flavie Vial

Full Text Available We used meat-inspection data collected over a period of three years in Switzerland to evaluate slaughterhouse-level, farm-level and animal-level factors that may be associated with whole carcass condemnation (WCC in cattle after slaughter. The objective of this study was to identify WCC risk factors so they can be communicated to, and managed by, the slaughter industry and veterinary services. During meat inspection, there were three main important predictors of the risk of WCC; the slaughtered animal's sex, age, and the size of the slaughterhouse it was processed in. WCC for injuries and significant weight loss (visible welfare indicators were almost exclusive to smaller slaughterhouses. Cattle exhibiting clinical syndromes that were not externally visible (e.g. pneumonia lesions and that are associated with fattening of cattle, end up in larger slaughterhouses. For this reason, it is important for animal health surveillance to collect data from both types of slaughterhouses. Other important risk factors for WCC were on-farm mortality rate and the number of cattle on the farm of origin. This study highlights the fact that the many risk factors for WCC are as complex as the production system itself, with risk factors interacting with one another in ways which are sometimes difficult to interpret biologically. Risk-based surveillance aimed at farms with reoccurring health problems (e.g. a history of above average condemnation rates may be more appropriate than the selection, of higher-risk animals arriving at slaughter. In Switzerland, the introduction of a benchmarking system that would provide feedback to the farmer with information on condemnation reasons, and his/her performance compared to the national/regional average could be a first step towards improving herd-management and financial returns for producers.

Suicide Risk by Military Occupation in the DoD Active Component Population

Science.gov (United States)

Trofimovich, Lily; Reger, Mark A.; Luxton, David D.; Oetjen-Gerdes, Lynne A.

2013-01-01

Suicide risk based on occupational cohorts within the U.S. military was investigated. Rates of suicide based on military occupational categories were computed for the Department of Defense (DoD) active component population between 2001 and 2010. The combined infantry, gun crews, and seamanship specialist group was at increased risk of suicide…

Population pressure and health risks in urban market environment: a ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Population pressure and health risks in urban market environment: a study of Bodija market, Ibadan, Nigeria. ... International Journal of Development and Management Review ... This study was directed at permanent sellers in Bodija Market, (men and women) and people who frequent the market to make purchases.

Impairment of functioning and substance use in a Latino population.

Science.gov (United States)

Mercado, Alfonso; Talavera Garza, Liza; Popan, Jason; Finn-Nguyen, Kim; Sharma, Rachita; Colunga-Rodriguez, Cecilia

2017-12-20

This study investigated the association of academic outcomes, romantic relationships, and substance use (tobacco, marijuana, cocaine) with alcohol dependence in a sample of Latino (N = 1,143) college students. Secondary data analysis was conducted on measures of grade point average in college, relationship satisfaction, drug use, and alcohol dependence. Latino college students who reported alcohol dependency had significant relational dissatisfaction and poor academic outcomes. Thus, lower grade point average and relationship dissatisfaction were associated with alcohol dependence. By focusing specifically on a Mexican American population, this study adds important information to current research regarding the commonality and differences across cultural groups regarding drug use and dependence and further clarifies the risk factors associated with substance use and dependency in a population that is vulnerable for at-risk behaviors. This study also offers insight into potential targets of treatment and intervention for this cultural group.

Adverse childhood experiences, gender, and HIV risk behaviors: Results from a population-based sample

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Lin Fang

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Recent HIV research suggested assessing adverse childhood experiences (ACEs as contributing factors of HIV risk behaviors. However, studies often focused on a single type of adverse experience and very few utilized population-based data. This population study examined the associations between ACE (individual and cumulative ACE score and HIV risk behaviors. We analyzed the 2012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance Survey (BRFSS from 5 states. The sample consisted of 39,434 adults. Eight types of ACEs that included different types of child abuse and household dysfunctions before the age of 18 were measured. A cumulative score of ACEs was also computed. Logistic regression estimated of the association between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors using odds ratio (OR with 95% confidence intervals (CIs for males and females separately. We found that ACEs were positively associated with HIV risk behaviors overall, but the associations differed between males and females in a few instances. While the cumulative ACE score was associated with HIV risk behaviors in a stepwise manner, the pattern varied by gender. For males, the odds of HIV risk increased at a significant level as long as they experienced one ACE, whereas for females, the odds did not increase until they experienced three or more ACEs. Future research should further investigate the gender-specific associations between ACEs and HIV risk behaviors. As childhood adversities are prevalent among general population, and such experiences are associated with increased risk behaviors for HIV transmission, service providers can benefit from the principles of trauma-informed practice.

Alcohol and cancer: risk perception and risk denial beliefs among the French general population.

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Bocquier, Aurélie; Fressard, Lisa; Verger, Pierre; Legleye, Stéphane; Peretti-Watel, Patrick

2017-08-01

Worldwide, millions of deaths each year are attributed to alcohol. We sought to examine French people's beliefs about the risks of alcohol, their correlates, and their associations with alcohol use. Data came from the 2010 Baromètre Cancer survey, a random cross-sectional telephone survey of the French general population (n = 3359 individuals aged 15-75 years). Using principal component analysis of seven beliefs about alcohol risks, we built two scores (one assessing risk denial based on self-confidence and the other risk relativization). Two multiple linear regressions explored these scores' socio-demographic and perceived information level correlates. Multiple logistic regressions tested the associations of these scores with daily drinking and with heavy episodic drinking (HED). About 60% of the respondents acknowledged that alcohol increases the risk of cancer, and 89% felt well-informed about the risks of alcohol. Beliefs that may promote risk denial were frequent (e.g. 72% agreed that soda and hamburgers are as bad as alcohol for your health). Both risk denial and risk relativization scores were higher among men, older respondents and those of low socioeconomic status. The probability of daily drinking increased with the risk relativization score and that of HED with both scores. Beliefs that can help people to deny the cancer risks due to alcohol use are common in France and may exist in many other countries where alcoholic beverages have been an integral part of the culture. These results can be used to redesign public information campaigns about the risks of alcohol. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Public Health Association. All rights reserved.

Temporal and Spatial Simulation of Atmospheric Pollutant PM2.5 Changes and Risk Assessment of Population Exposure to Pollution Using Optimization Algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network Model and GIS.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Ping; Hong, Bo; He, Liang; Cheng, Fei; Zhao, Peng; Wei, Cailiang; Liu, Yunhui

2015-09-29

PM2.5 pollution has become of increasing public concern because of its relative importance and sensitivity to population health risks. Accurate predictions of PM2.5 pollution and population exposure risks are crucial to developing effective air pollution control strategies. We simulated and predicted the temporal and spatial changes of PM2.5 concentration and population exposure risks, by coupling optimization algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN) model and a geographical information system (GIS) in Xi'an, China, for 2013, 2020, and 2025. Results indicated that PM2.5 concentration was positively correlated with GDP, SO₂, and NO₂, while it was negatively correlated with population density, average temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Principal component analysis of the PM2.5 concentration and its influencing factors' variables extracted four components that accounted for 86.39% of the total variance. Correlation coefficients of the Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm) and elastic (trainrp) algorithms were more than 0.8, the index of agreement (IA) ranged from 0.541 to 0.863 and from 0.502 to 0.803 by trainrp and trainlm algorithms, respectively; mean bias error (MBE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) indicated that the predicted values were very close to the observed values, and the accuracy of trainlm algorithm was better than the trainrp. Compared to 2013, temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration and risk of population exposure to pollution decreased in 2020 and 2025. The high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were mainly distributed in the northern region, where there is downtown traffic, abundant commercial activity, and more exhaust emissions. A moderate risk zone was located in the southern region associated with some industrial pollution sources, and there were mainly low-risk areas in the western and eastern regions, which are predominantly residential and educational areas.

Work related neck and upper limb symptoms (RSI) : high risk occupations and risk factors in the Dutch working population

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blatter, B.M.; Bongers, P.M.

1999-01-01

By means of the questionnaire Monitor on Stress and Physical Load 984 employers and 10813 employees were interviewed about the presence of risk factors for stress and musculoskeletal problems (RSI). The prevalence among the Dutch working population was 30.5%. Women appear to have a higher risk of

The risks of leukaemia and other cancers in Seascale from radiation exposure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stather, J.W.; Dionian, J.; Brown, J.; Fell, T.P.; Muirhead, C.R.

1986-04-01

Including new data in the radiation dose calculations for the Seascale study population of 1225 children and young persons, followed to 20 years of age or 1980, has, with modifications to dosimetric models, increased the predicted number of radiation-induced leukaemia resulting from Sallafield discharges from 0.01 to 0.016. Risk to the average child in the study, from the discharges, is now calculated as about 1 in 75,000 with a maximum risk of about 1 in 30,000 for children born in the mid-1950s. For the four fatal leukemias to be attributed to the Sellafield operations, the calculated average risk for all the children would have to be increased about 250 times. Estimate of the overall risk of radiation-induced leukaemia in the study population, from combined sources, has increased by less than 10% of the previous estimate and the total number of cases is still rounded to 0.1, as in R171. Risk to the average child is now calculated as about 1 in 12,250, about two thirds from natural background, 16% from Sellafield discharges, and 9% each from weapons fallout and medical exposure. (U.K.)

"Don't know" responses to risk perception measures: implications for underserved populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Waters, Erika A; Hay, Jennifer L; Orom, Heather; Kiviniemi, Marc T; Drake, Bettina F

2013-02-01

Risk perceptions are legitimate targets for behavioral interventions because they can motivate medical decisions and health behaviors. However, some survey respondents may not know (or may not indicate) their risk perceptions. The scope of "don't know" (DK) responding is unknown. Examine the prevalence and correlates of responding DK to items assessing perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Two nationally representative, population-based, cross-sectional surveys (2005 National Health Interview Survey [NHIS]; 2005 Health Information National Trends Survey [HINTS]), and one primary care clinic-based survey comprised of individuals from low-income communities. Analyses included 31,202 (NHIS), 1,937 (HINTS), and 769 (clinic) individuals. Five items assessed perceived risk of colorectal cancer. Four of the items differed in format and/or response scale: comparative risk (NHIS, HINTS); absolute risk (HINTS, clinic), and "likelihood" and "chance" response scales (clinic). Only the clinic-based survey included an explicit DK response option. "Don't know" responding was 6.9% (NHIS), 7.5% (HINTS-comparative), and 8.7% (HINTS-absolute). "Don't know" responding was 49.1% and 69.3% for the "chance" and "likely" response options (clinic). Correlates of DK responding were characteristics generally associated with disparities (e.g., low education), but the pattern of results varied among samples, question formats, and response scales. The surveys were developed independently and employed different methodologies and items. Consequently, the results were not directly comparable. There may be multiple explanations for differences in the magnitude and characteristics of DK responding. "Don't know" responding is more prevalent in populations affected by health disparities. Either not assessing or not analyzing DK responses could further disenfranchise these populations and negatively affect the validity of research and the efficacy of interventions seeking to eliminate health disparities.

Genetic risk factors for nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate in a Brazilian population with high African ancestry.

Science.gov (United States)

do Rego Borges, Andrea; Sá, Jamile; Hoshi, Ryuichi; Viena, Camila Sane; Mariano, Lorena C; de Castro Veiga, Patricia; Medrado, Alena Peixoto; Machado, Renato Assis; de Aquino, Sibele Nascimento; Messetti, Ana Camila; Spritz, Richard A; Coletta, Ricardo D; Reis, Silvia R A

2015-10-01

Nonsyndromic cleft lip with or without cleft palate (NSCL ± P) is the most common orofacial birth defect, exhibiting variable prevalence around the world, often attributed to ethnic and environmental differences. Linkage analyses and genome-wide association studies have identified several genomic susceptibility regions for NSCL ± P, mostly in European-derived or Asian populations. Genetic predisposition to NSCL ± P is ethnicity-dependent, and the genetic basis of susceptibility to NSCL ± P likely varies among populations. The population of Brazil is highly admixed, with highly variable ancestry; thus, the genetic determinants of NSCL ± P susceptibility may be quite different. This study tested association of 8 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), previously identified by genome-wide studies in other populations, with NSCL ± P in a Brazilian population with high African ancestry. SNPs rs560426, rs642961, rs1530300, rs987525, rs3758249, rs7078160, rs17085106, and rs13041247 were genotyped in 293 Brazilian patients with NSCL ± P and 352 unaffected Brazilian controls. Each sample was also genotyped for 40 biallelic short insertion/deletion polymorphic markers to characterize genetic ancestry. The average African ancestry background was 31.1% for the NSCL ± P group and 36.7% for the control group. After adjustment for ancestry and multiple testing, the minor alleles of rs3758249 (OR: 1.58, 95% CI: 1.25-2.01, P = 0.0001) and rs7078160 (OR: 1.59, 95% CI: 1.21-2.07, P = 0.0002) were significantly associated with risk of NSCL ± P. Polymorphisms located in IRF6 (rs642961) and 8q24 (rs1530300 and rs987525) showed marginal associations in this Brazilian population with high African ancestry. These results indicate that rs3758249 at 9q22 and rs7078160 at 10q25.3 represent risk loci for NSCL ± P in the Brazilian population with high African ancestry. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

A Simple Risk Score for Identifying Individuals with Impaired Fasting Glucose in the Southern Chinese Population

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Hui Wang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This study aimed to develop and validate a simple risk score for detecting individuals with impaired fasting glucose (IFG among the Southern Chinese population. A sample of participants aged ≥20 years and without known diabetes from the 2006–2007 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional survey was used to develop separate risk scores for men and women. The participants completed a self-administered structured questionnaire and underwent simple clinical measurements. The risk scores were developed by multiple logistic regression analysis. External validation was performed based on three other studies: the 2007 Zhuhai rural population-based study, the 2008–2010 Guangzhou diabetes cross-sectional study and the 2007 Tibet population-based study. Performance of the scores was measured with the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test and ROC c-statistic. Age, waist circumference, body mass index and family history of diabetes were included in the risk score for both men and women, with the additional factor of hypertension for men. The ROC c-statistic was 0.70 for both men and women in the derivation samples. Risk scores of ≥28 for men and ≥18 for women showed respective sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value of 56.6%, 71.7%, 13.0% and 96.0% for men and 68.7%, 60.2%, 11% and 96.0% for women in the derivation population. The scores performed comparably with the Zhuhai rural sample and the 2008–2010 Guangzhou urban samples but poorly in the Tibet sample. The performance of pre-existing USA, Shanghai, and Chengdu risk scores was poorer in our population than in their original study populations. The results suggest that the developed simple IFG risk scores can be generalized in Guangzhou city and nearby rural regions and may help primary health care workers to identify individuals with IFG in their practice.

Confounding environmental colour and distribution shape leads to underestimation of population extinction risk.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mike S Fowler

Full Text Available The colour of environmental variability influences the size of population fluctuations when filtered through density dependent dynamics, driving extinction risk through dynamical resonance. Slow fluctuations (low frequencies dominate in red environments, rapid fluctuations (high frequencies in blue environments and white environments are purely random (no frequencies dominate. Two methods are commonly employed to generate the coloured spatial and/or temporal stochastic (environmental series used in combination with population (dynamical feedback models: autoregressive [AR(1] and sinusoidal (1/f models. We show that changing environmental colour from white to red with 1/f models, and from white to red or blue with AR(1 models, generates coloured environmental series that are not normally distributed at finite time-scales, potentially confounding comparison with normally distributed white noise models. Increasing variability of sample Skewness and Kurtosis and decreasing mean Kurtosis of these series alter the frequency distribution shape of the realised values of the coloured stochastic processes. These changes in distribution shape alter patterns in the probability of single and series of extreme conditions. We show that the reduced extinction risk for undercompensating (slow growing populations in red environments previously predicted with traditional 1/f methods is an artefact of changes in the distribution shapes of the environmental series. This is demonstrated by comparison with coloured series controlled to be normally distributed using spectral mimicry. Changes in the distribution shape that arise using traditional methods lead to underestimation of extinction risk in normally distributed, red 1/f environments. AR(1 methods also underestimate extinction risks in traditionally generated red environments. This work synthesises previous results and provides further insight into the processes driving extinction risk in model populations. We

Geostatistical analysis of disease data: accounting for spatial support and population density in the isopleth mapping of cancer mortality risk using area-to-point Poisson kriging

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Goovaerts Pierre

2006-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Geostatistical techniques that account for spatially varying population sizes and spatial patterns in the filtering of choropleth maps of cancer mortality were recently developed. Their implementation was facilitated by the initial assumption that all geographical units are the same size and shape, which allowed the use of geographic centroids in semivariogram estimation and kriging. Another implicit assumption was that the population at risk is uniformly distributed within each unit. This paper presents a generalization of Poisson kriging whereby the size and shape of administrative units, as well as the population density, is incorporated into the filtering of noisy mortality rates and the creation of isopleth risk maps. An innovative procedure to infer the point-support semivariogram of the risk from aggregated rates (i.e. areal data is also proposed. Results The novel methodology is applied to age-adjusted lung and cervix cancer mortality rates recorded for white females in two contrasted county geographies: 1 state of Indiana that consists of 92 counties of fairly similar size and shape, and 2 four states in the Western US (Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah forming a set of 118 counties that are vastly different geographical units. Area-to-point (ATP Poisson kriging produces risk surfaces that are less smooth than the maps created by a naïve point kriging of empirical Bayesian smoothed rates. The coherence constraint of ATP kriging also ensures that the population-weighted average of risk estimates within each geographical unit equals the areal data for this unit. Simulation studies showed that the new approach yields more accurate predictions and confidence intervals than point kriging of areal data where all counties are simply collapsed into their respective polygon centroids. Its benefit over point kriging increases as the county geography becomes more heterogeneous. Conclusion A major limitation of choropleth

Geostatistical analysis of disease data: accounting for spatial support and population density in the isopleth mapping of cancer mortality risk using area-to-point Poisson kriging

Science.gov (United States)

Goovaerts, Pierre

2006-01-01

Background Geostatistical techniques that account for spatially varying population sizes and spatial patterns in the filtering of choropleth maps of cancer mortality were recently developed. Their implementation was facilitated by the initial assumption that all geographical units are the same size and shape, which allowed the use of geographic centroids in semivariogram estimation and kriging. Another implicit assumption was that the population at risk is uniformly distributed within each unit. This paper presents a generalization of Poisson kriging whereby the size and shape of administrative units, as well as the population density, is incorporated into the filtering of noisy mortality rates and the creation of isopleth risk maps. An innovative procedure to infer the point-support semivariogram of the risk from aggregated rates (i.e. areal data) is also proposed. Results The novel methodology is applied to age-adjusted lung and cervix cancer mortality rates recorded for white females in two contrasted county geographies: 1) state of Indiana that consists of 92 counties of fairly similar size and shape, and 2) four states in the Western US (Arizona, California, Nevada and Utah) forming a set of 118 counties that are vastly different geographical units. Area-to-point (ATP) Poisson kriging produces risk surfaces that are less smooth than the maps created by a naïve point kriging of empirical Bayesian smoothed rates. The coherence constraint of ATP kriging also ensures that the population-weighted average of risk estimates within each geographical unit equals the areal data for this unit. Simulation studies showed that the new approach yields more accurate predictions and confidence intervals than point kriging of areal data where all counties are simply collapsed into their respective polygon centroids. Its benefit over point kriging increases as the county geography becomes more heterogeneous. Conclusion A major limitation of choropleth maps is the common biased

Synergistic effect of oral corticosteroids use on risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in high risk populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Shih-Wei; Lin, Cheng-Li; Liao, Kuan-Fu

2018-06-01

Little evidence is available on the relationship between oral corticosteroids use and hepatocellular carcinoma. The objective of this study was to investigate whether oral corticosteroids use correlates with the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma in high risk populations in Taiwan. Using representative claims database established from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Program with a population coverage rate of 99.6%, we identified 102,182 subjects aged 20-84 years with newly diagnosed hepatocellular carcinoma in 2000-2011 as the cases and 102,182 randomly selected subjects aged 20-84 years without hepatocellular carcinoma as the matched controls. In subjects with any one of comorbidities including alcohol-related disease, chronic liver disease, and diabetes mellitus, the adjusted OR of hepatocellular carcinoma was 29.9 (95% CI 28.7, 31.1) for subjects with never use of oral corticosteroids, and the adjusted OR would increase to 33.7 (95% CI 32.3, 35.3) for those with ever use of oral corticosteroids. The adjusted OR of hepatocellular carcinoma was 1.03 for subjects with increasing cumulative duration of oral corticosteroids use for every one year (95% CI 1.01, 1.06), with a duration-dependent effect. The largest OR occurred in subjects with ever use of oral corticosteroids and concurrently comorbid with alcohol-related disease, chronic liver disease, and diabetes mellitus (adjusted OR 122.7, 95% CI 108.5, 138.8). There is a synergistic effect between oral corticosteroids use and the traditional risk factors on the risk of hepatocellular carcinoma. People with risk factors for hepatocellular carcinoma should receive regular ultrasound surveillance, particularly when they currently use oral corticosteroids. Copyright © 2018 European Federation of Internal Medicine. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Non-sky-averaged sensitivity curves for space-based gravitational-wave observatories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vallisneri, Michele; Galley, Chad R

2012-01-01

The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is used in gravitational-wave observations as the basic figure of merit for detection confidence and, together with the Fisher matrix, for the amount of physical information that can be extracted from a detected signal. SNRs are usually computed from a sensitivity curve, which describes the gravitational-wave amplitude needed by a monochromatic source of given frequency to achieve a threshold SNR. Although the term 'sensitivity' is used loosely to refer to the detector's noise spectral density, the two quantities are not the same: the sensitivity includes also the frequency- and orientation-dependent response of the detector to gravitational waves and takes into account the duration of observation. For interferometric space-based detectors similar to LISA, which are sensitive to long-lived signals and have constantly changing position and orientation, exact SNRs need to be computed on a source-by-source basis. For convenience, most authors prefer to work with sky-averaged sensitivities, accepting inaccurate SNRs for individual sources and giving up control over the statistical distribution of SNRs for source populations. In this paper, we describe a straightforward end-to-end recipe to compute the non-sky-averaged sensitivity of interferometric space-based detectors of any geometry. This recipe includes the effects of spacecraft motion and of seasonal variations in the partially subtracted confusion foreground from Galactic binaries, and it can be used to generate a sampling distribution of sensitivities for a given source population. In effect, we derive error bars for the sky-averaged sensitivity curve, which provide a stringent statistical interpretation for previously unqualified statements about sky-averaged SNRs. As a worked-out example, we consider isotropic and Galactic-disk populations of monochromatic sources, as observed with the 'classic LISA' configuration. We confirm that the (standard) inverse-rms average sensitivity

Population-genetic approach to standardization of radiation and non-radiation factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Telnov, I.

2006-01-01

population level. Of 65 analyses of association between diseases and unfavorable effects and various genetic polymorphic systems, 27 had negative results. Other 38 had significant, i.e. positive results. Respective G.S.R.R. varied accordingly in the range from 1.2 to 2.5. Averaged G.S.R.R. for some genetic systems ranged from 1.4 to 1.9. More stable and closer values of averaged G.S.R.R. calculated for various categories of effects: pathologies due to radiation and non-radiation factors - 1.51; non-tumor (1,47) and tumor (1,54) diseases; average life expectancy - 1.34. Population-averaged or integral value of G.S.R.R. was about 1.5. This value can be used as genetic predisposition coefficient (C.G.P.) for correction in averaging of environmental population level factors. Such correction can be done by decreasing of permissible standard value by the value of C.G.P. to calculate population-genetic standard. It should be noted that population-genetic standards decrease risk of development of unfavorable consequences due to effect of environmental factors in individuals with genetic predisposition to the general population level. An important advantage of this approach is that there is no need to account for all existing variations of genetic predisposition to multiform unfavorable environmental factors

[Regulatory radiation risks' for the population and natural objects within the Semipalatinsk Test Site].

Science.gov (United States)

Spiridonov, S I; Teten'kin, V L; Mukusheva, M K; Solomatin, V M

2008-01-01

Advisability of using risks as indicators for estimating radiation impacts on environmental objects and humans has been jusified. Results are presented from identification of dose burdens distribution to various cohorts of the population living within the Semipalatinsk Test Site (STS) and consuming contaminated farm products. Parameters of dose burden distributions are estimated for areas of livestock grazing and the most contaminated sectors within these areas. Dose distributions to meadow plants for the above areas have been found. Regulatory radiation risks for the STS population and meadow ecosystem components have been calculated. Based on the parameters estimated, levels of radiation exposure of the population and herbaceous plants have been compared.

TCF7L2 variant genotypes and type 2 diabetes risk in Brazil: significant association, but not a significant tool for risk stratification in the general population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mill JG

2008-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Genetic polymorphisms of the TCF7L2 gene are strongly associated with large increments in type 2 diabetes risk in different populations worldwide. In this study, we aimed to confirm the effect of the TCF7L2 polymorphism rs7903146 on diabetes risk in a Brazilian population and to assess the use of this genetic marker in improving diabetes risk prediction in the general population. Methods We genotyped the single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene in 560 patients with known coronary disease enrolled in the MASS II (Medicine, Angioplasty, or Surgery Study Trial and in 1,449 residents of Vitoria, in Southeast Brazil. The associations of this gene variant to diabetes risk and metabolic characteristics in these two different populations were analyzed. To access the potential benefit of using this marker for diabetes risk prediction in the general population we analyzed the impact of this genetic variant on a validated diabetes risk prediction tool based on clinical characteristics developed for the Brazilian general population. Results SNP rs7903146 of the TCF7L2 gene was significantly associated with type 2 diabetes in the MASS-II population (OR = 1.57 per T allele, p = 0.0032, confirming, in the Brazilian population, previous reports of the literature. Addition of this polymorphism to an established clinical risk prediction score did not increased model accuracy (both area under ROC curve equal to 0.776. Conclusion TCF7L2 rs7903146 T allele is associated with a 1.57 increased risk for type 2 diabetes in a Brazilian cohort of patients with known coronary heart disease. However, the inclusion of this polymorphism in a risk prediction tool developed for the general population resulted in no improvement of performance. This is the first study, to our knowledge, that has confirmed this recent association in a South American population and adds to the great consistency of this finding in studies around the world

The estimation of radiation effective dose from diagnostic medical procedures in general population of northern Iran

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shabestani Monfared, A.; Abdi, R.

2006-01-01

The risks of low-dose Ionizing radiation from radiology and nuclear medicine are not clearly determined. Effective dose to population is a very important factor in risk estimation. The study aimed to determine the effective dose from diagnostic radiation medicine in a northern province of Iran. Materials and Methods: Data about various radiologic and nuclear medicine procedures were collected from all radiology and nuclear medicine departments In Mazandaran Province (population = 2,898,031); and using the standard dosimetry tables, the total dose, dose per examination, and annual effective dose per capita as well as the annual gonadal dose per capita were estimated. Results: 655,730 radiologic examinations in a year's period, lead to 1.45 mSv, 0.33 mSv and 0.31 mGy as average effective dose per examination, annual average effective dose to member of the public, and annual average gonadal dose per capita, respectively. The frequency of medical radiologic examinations was 2,262 examinations annually per 10,000 members of population. However, the total number of nuclear medicine examinations in the same period was 7074, with 4.37 mSv, 9.6 μSv and 9.8 μGy, as average effective dose per examination, annual average effective dose to member of the public and annual average gonadal dose per caput, respectively. The frequency of nuclear medicine examination was 24 examinations annually per 10,000 members of population. Conclusion: The average effective dose per examination was nearly similar to other studies. However, the average annual effective dose and annual average gonadal dose per capita were less than the similar values in other reports, which could be due to lesser number of radiation medicine examinations in the present study

Cardiovascular risk assessment in elderly adults using SCORE OP model in a Latin American population: The experience from Ecuador.

Science.gov (United States)

Sisa, Ivan

2018-02-09

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality is predicted to increase in Latin America countries due to their rapidly aging population. However, there is very little information about CVD risk assessment as a primary preventive measure in this high-risk population. We predicted the national risk of developing CVD in Ecuadorian elderly population using the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation in Older Persons (SCORE OP) High and Low models by risk categories/CVD risk region in 2009. Data on national cardiovascular risk factors were obtained from the Encuesta sobre Salud, Bienestar y Envejecimiento. We computed the predicted 5-year risk of CVD risk and compared the extent of agreement and reclassification in stratifying high-risk individuals between SCORE OP High and Low models. Analyses were done by risk categories, CVD risk region, and sex. In 2009, based on SCORE OP Low model almost 42% of elderly adults living in Ecuador were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period. The extent of agreement between SCORE OP High and Low risk prediction models was moderate (Cohen's kappa test of 0.5), 34% of individuals approximately were reclassified into different risk categories and a third of the population would benefit from a pharmacologic intervention to reduce the CVD risk. Forty-two percent of elderly Ecuadorians were at high risk of suffering CVD over a 5-year period, indicating an urgent need to tailor primary preventive measures for this vulnerable and high-risk population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Spatial modelling of population at risk and PM 2.5 exposure index: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

However, monitoring, spatial representation and development of associated risk indicators have been major problems undermining formulation of relevant policy on air quality. This study used ... to environmental health. Key Words: Population at risk, PM2.5; Spatial modeling, GIS, Exposure index, environmental health ...

Assessing risks to fish populations near a proposed disposal facility for used nuclear fuel

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hart, D.; Miesenheimer, P.; Hull, R.

1995-01-01

The concept of used nuclear fuel disposal in the Canadian Shield is currently undergoing a federal environmental assessment review process. As part of this review, potential risks to brook trout populations in the vicinity of such an underground repository were considered. Chemical fate, transport and exposure models have been utilized to estimate the dose rates from released radionuclides and other fuel constituents, and these likely will not be sufficient to harm fish in nearby streams. However, other stressors such as habitat alteration (e.g., loss of upwelling) and/or fishing pressure associated with increased public access could have significant population impacts if the site is located in a pristine northern region. Population models are utilized to explore the risks of local population reduction for different combinations of fishing pressure and habitat degradation

Midlife Alcohol Consumption and Risk of Dementia Over 43 Years of Follow-Up: A Population-Based Study From the Swedish Twin Registry.

Science.gov (United States)

Handing, Elizabeth P; Andel, Ross; Kadlecova, Pavla; Gatz, Margaret; Pedersen, Nancy L

2015-10-01

Midlife alcohol consumption (beer, wine, and spirits) was examined in relation to dementia incidence over 43 years. Participants were 12,326 members of the population-based Swedish Twin Registry born during 1907-1925 who responded to items about alcohol consumption in 1967/1970, subsequently classified as nondrinking (0 grams of ethanol per day), light (1-5g/d), moderate (5-12g/d), heavy (12-24g/d), and very heavy (>24g/d) drinking. Dementia was identified from the National Patient and Cause of Death Registries. Cox proportional hazard models adjusted for cluster-correlated data were used in cohort analyses. Conditional logistic regression (dementia-discordant pairs) and mixed effects models (dementia-concordant pairs) were used in twin analyses. Overall, nondrinkers did not differ from light drinkers in dementia risk. Heavy drinking (hazard ratio = 1.10, p = .028) and very heavy drinking (hazard ratio = 1.18, p = .033) were associated with increased dementia risk controlling for sociodemographic, lifestyle, and cardiovascular factors. More alcohol from spirits was related to increased risk of dementia, whereas more alcohol from wine with decreased risk, although the association for wine reversed direction at high amounts. Relative to co-twins drinking light amounts, moderate-to-heavy drinking twins had (a) greater risk of dementia by 57% (p = .006, 300% in monozygotic pairs only) and (b) reduced time to dementia by 4.76 years (p = .019, 4.78 years in monozygotic pairs only). Averaging more than 12 grams of alcohol per day may increase risk of dementia. Alcohol from spirits appears particularly important for the increased dementia risk. Genetic and/or familial factors do not explain these associations. Alcohol use reduction may be a useful population-wide intervention strategy. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Gerontological Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Defining the Risk of Zika and Chikungunya Virus Transmission in Human Population Centers of the Eastern United States.

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Carrie A Manore

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The recent spread of mosquito-transmitted viruses and associated disease to the Americas motivates a new, data-driven evaluation of risk in temperate population centers. Temperate regions are generally expected to pose low risk for significant mosquito-borne disease; however, the spread of the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus across densely populated urban areas has established a new landscape of risk. We use a model informed by field data to assess the conditions likely to facilitate local transmission of chikungunya and Zika viruses from an infected traveler to Ae. albopictus and then to other humans in USA cities with variable human densities and seasonality. Mosquito-borne disease occurs when specific combinations of conditions maximize virus-to-mosquito and mosquito-to-human contact rates. We develop a mathematical model that captures the epidemiology and is informed by current data on vector ecology from urban sites. The model demonstrates that under specific but realistic conditions, fifty-percent of introductions by infectious travelers to a high human, high mosquito density city could initiate local transmission and 10% of the introductions could result in 100 or more people infected. Despite the propensity for Ae. albopictus to bite non-human vertebrates, we also demonstrate that local virus transmission and human outbreaks may occur when vectors feed from humans even just 40% of the time. Inclusion of human behavioral changes and mitigations were not incorporated into the models and would likely reduce predicted infections. This work demonstrates how a conditional series of non-average events can result in local arbovirus transmission and outbreaks of human disease, even in temperate cities.

Vector-borne disease risk indexes in spatially structured populations.

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Jorge Velázquez-Castro

2018-02-01

Full Text Available There are economic and physical limitations when applying prevention and control strategies for urban vector borne diseases. Consequently, there are increasing concerns and interest in designing efficient strategies and regulations that health agencies can follow in order to reduce the imminent impact of viruses like Dengue, Zika and Chikungunya. That includes fumigation, abatization, reducing the hatcheries, picking up trash, information campaigns. A basic question that arise when designing control strategies is about which and where these ones should focus. In other words, one would like to know whether preventing the contagion or decrease vector population, and in which area of the city, is more efficient. In this work, we propose risk indexes based on the idea of secondary cases from patch to patch. Thus, they take into account human mobility and indicate which patch has more chance to be a corridor for the spread of the disease and which is more vulnerable, i.e. more likely to have cases?. They can also indicate the neighborhood where hatchery control will reduce more the number of potential cases. In order to illustrate the usefulness of these indexes, we run a set of numerical simulations in a mathematical model that takes into account the urban mobility and the differences in population density among the areas of a city. If we label by i a particular neighborhood, the transmission risk index (TRi measures the potential secondary cases caused by a host in that neighborhood. The vector transmission risk index (VTRi measures the potential secondary cases caused by a vector. Finally, the vulnerability risk index (VRi measures the potential secondary cases in the neighborhood. Transmission indexes can be used to give geographical priority to some neighborhoods when applying prevention and control measures. On the other hand, the vulnerability index can be useful to implement monitoring campaigns or public health investment.

Contribution of inorganic arsenic sources to population exposure risk on a regional scale.

Science.gov (United States)

Chou, Wei-Chun; Chen, Jein-Wen; Liao, Chung-Min

2016-07-01

Chronic exposure to inorganic arsenic (iAs) in the human population is associated with various internal cancers and other adverse outcomes. The purpose of this study was to estimate a population-scale exposure risk attributable to iAs consumptions by linking a stochastic physiological-based pharmacokinetic (PBPK) model and biomonitoring data of iAs in urine. The urinary As concentrations were obtained from a total of 1,043 subjects living in an industrial area of Taiwan. The results showed that the study subjects had an iAs exposure risk of 27 % (the daily iAs intake for 27 % study subjects exceeded the WHO-recommended value, 2.1 μg iAs day(-1) kg(-1) body weight). Moreover, drinking water and cooked rice contributed to the iAs exposure risk by 10 and 41 %, respectively. The predicted risks in the current study were 4.82, 27.21, 34.69, and 64.17 %, respectively, among the mid-range of Mexico, Taiwan (this study), Korea, and Bangladesh reported in the literature. In conclusion, we developed a population-scale-based risk model that covered the broad range of iAS exposure by integrating stochastic PBPK modeling and reverse dosimetry to generate probabilistic distribution of As intake corresponding to urinary As measured from the cohort study. The model can also be updated as new urinary As information becomes available.

Prevalence of risk factors for coronary artery disease in an urban Indian population

Science.gov (United States)

Sekhri, T; Kanwar, R S; Wilfred, R; Chugh, P; Chhillar, M; Aggarwal, R; Sharma, Y K; Sethi, J; Sundriyal, J; Bhadra, K; Singh, S; Rautela, N; Chand, Tek; Singh, M; Singh, S K

2014-01-01

Objective The objective of this study was to assess the prevalence of risk factors for coronary artery disease (CAD) in government employees across India. Methods The study population consisted of government employees in different parts of India ({n=10 642 men and n=1966 women; age 20–60 years}) and comprised various ethnic groups living in different environmental conditions. Recruitment was carried out in 20 cities across 14 states, and in one union territory. All selected individuals were subjected to a detailed questionnaire, medical examinations and anthropometric measurements. Blood samples were collected for blood glucose and serum lipid profile estimation, and resting ECG was recorded. Results were analysed using appropriate statistical tools. Results The study revealed that 4.6% of the study population had a family history of premature CAD. The overall prevalence of diabetes was 16% (5.6% diagnosed during the study and the remaining 10.4% already on medication). Hypertension was present in 21% of subjects. The prevalence of dyslipidemia was significantly high, with 45.6% of study subjects having a high total cholesterol/high density lipoprotein ratio. Overall, 78.6% subjects had two or more risk factors for CAD. Conclusions The present study demonstrates a high prevalence of CAD risk factors in the Indian urban population. Therefore, there is an immediate need to initiate measures to raise awareness of these risk factors so that individuals at high risk for future CAD can be managed. PMID:25488095

Social cognition deficits and the 'ultra high risk' for psychosis population: a review of literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Andrew D; Bartholomeusz, Cali; Yung, Alison R

2011-08-01

A number of risk factors for developing a psychotic disorder have been investigated in the 'ultra high risk' (UHR) population, including neurocognitive abilities, social functioning and, more recently, social cognition. We aimed to review the literature on social cognition in the UHR population. Literature was restricted to English articles and identified using Pubmed, Medline, PsychINFO and CINAHLplus, as well as the reference lists of published studies and reviews. Search terms included social cognition, theory of mind, emotion recognition, attributional style, social knowledge, social perception, 'at risk mental state', psychosis prodrome 'clinical high risk' and 'ultra high risk'. Inclusion criteria were an outcome measure of a social cognition task and an UHR population defined by a structured validated instrument. Seven original research articles met the inclusion criteria, one of which was a conference abstract. One of the two studies that assessed theory of mind, two of the four studies that assessed emotion recognition and both the two studies that assessed social perception/knowledge found significant deficits in UHR patients. The single study that assessed attributional bias also reported differences in UHR patients compared with healthy controls. There is limited published literature on social cognitive performance in the UHR population. Despite this, deficits in certain social cognitive abilities do appear to be present, but further research with more reliable cross-cultural measures is needed. The characterization of social cognitive deficits in the UHR populations may aid in the identification of potential markers for development of a subsequent psychotic disorder, as well as targets for early intervention. © 2011 Blackwell Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

Cardiovascular risk factors in a Mexican middle-class urban population. The Lindavista Study. Baseline data.

Science.gov (United States)

Meaney, Alejandra; Ceballos-Reyes, Guillermo; Gutiérrez-Salmean, Gabriela; Samaniego-Méndez, Virginia; Vela-Huerta, Agustín; Alcocer, Luis; Zárate-Chavarría, Elisa; Mendoza-Castelán, Emma; Olivares-Corichi, Ivonne; García-Sánchez, Rubén; Martínez-Marroquín, Yolanda; Ramírez-Sánchez, Israel; Meaney, Eduardo

2013-01-01

The aim of this communication is to describe the cardiovascular risk factors affecting a Mexican urban middle-class population. A convenience sample of 2602 middle class urban subjects composed the cohort of the Lindavista Study, a prospective study aimed to determine if conventional cardiovascular risks factors have the same prognosis impact as in other populations. For the baseline data, several measurements were done: obesity indexes, smoking, blood pressure, fasting serum glucose, total cholesterol, HDL-c, LDL-c and triglycerides. This paper presents the basal values of this population, which represents a sample of the Mexican growing urban middle-class. The mean age in the sample was 50 years; 59% were females. Around 50% of the entire group were overweighed, while around 24% were obese. 32% smoked; 32% were hypertensive with a 20% rate of controlled pressure. 6% had diabetes, and 14% had impaired fasting glucose; 66% had total cholesterol ≥ 200 mg/dL; 62% showed HDL-c levels150 mg/dL, and 34% levels of LDL-c ≥ 160 mg/dL. Half of the population studied had the metabolic syndrome. These data show a population with a high-risk profile, secondary to the agglomeration of several cardiovascular risk factors. Copyright © 2012 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

High-risk populations identified in Childhood Cancer Survivor Study investigations: implications for risk-based surveillance.

Science.gov (United States)

Hudson, Melissa M; Mulrooney, Daniel A; Bowers, Daniel C; Sklar, Charles A; Green, Daniel M; Donaldson, Sarah S; Oeffinger, Kevin C; Neglia, Joseph P; Meadows, Anna T; Robison, Leslie L

2009-05-10

Childhood cancer survivors often experience complications related to cancer and its treatment that may adversely affect quality of life and increase the risk of premature death. The purpose of this manuscript is to review how data derived from Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS) investigations have facilitated identification of childhood cancer survivor populations at high risk for specific organ toxicity and secondary carcinogenesis and how this has informed clinical screening practices. Articles previously published that used the resource of the CCSS to identify risk factors for specific organ toxicity and subsequent cancers were reviewed and results summarized. CCSS investigations have characterized specific groups to be at highest risk of morbidity related to endocrine and reproductive dysfunction, pulmonary toxicity, cerebrovascular injury, neurologic and neurosensory sequelae, and subsequent neoplasms. Factors influencing risk for specific outcomes related to the individual survivor (eg, sex, race/ethnicity, age at diagnosis, attained age), sociodemographic status (eg, education, household income, health insurance) and cancer history (eg, diagnosis, treatment, time from diagnosis) have been consistently identified. These CCSS investigations that clarify risk for treatment complications related to specific treatment modalities, cumulative dose exposures, and sociodemographic factors identify profiles of survivors at high risk for cancer-related morbidity who deserve heightened surveillance to optimize outcomes after treatment for childhood cancer.

Anterior cruciate ligament injury: Identifying information sources and risk factor awareness among the general population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yasuharu Nagano

Full Text Available Raising awareness on a disorder is important for its prevention and for promoting public health. However, for sports injuries like the anterior cruciate ligament (ACL injury no studies have investigated the awareness on risk factors for injury and possible preventative measures in the general population. The sources of information among the population are also unclear. The purpose of the present study was to identify these aspects of public awareness about the ACL injury.A questionnaire was randomly distributed among the general population registered with a web based questionnaire supplier, to recruit 900 participants who were aware about the ACL injury. The questionnaire consisted of two parts: Question 1 asked them about their sources of information regarding the ACL injury; Question 2 asked them about the risk factors for ACL injury. Multivariate logistic regression was used to determine the information sources that provide a good understanding of the risk factors.The leading source of information for ACL injury was television (57.0%. However, the results of logistic regression analysis revealed that television was not an effective medium to create awareness about the risk factors, among the general population. Instead "Lecture by a coach", "Classroom session on Health", and "Newspaper" were significantly more effective in creating a good awareness of the risk factors (p < 0.001.

Chemical pollution of environment in the cities of Central Siberia: risk for the health of the population

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Ludmila Klimatskaya

2015-03-01

Full Text Available pollution in cities including the problem of risk assessment. The aim of the study is to determine carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks for the health of the population due to chemical contamination of air, water and food in the cities of the Krasnoyarsk region. Material and methods. The research was conducted in the Center of Hygiene and Epidemiology in the Krasnoyarsk region. 5122 samples of air, 4863 samples of water and 6915 samples of food stuff have been analyzed. Concentration of chemical substances was the base on which individual carcinogenesis risk (ICR and population carcinogenic conventional risks (PCCR and non carcinogenic risks [1] have been calculated. In the industrial cities chemical pollution of air, water and food stuff including carcinogenic substances creates carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks of morbidity of the population with the reinforcement of the complex impact, “with” which greatly exceeds the maximum acceptable risks. Results. Chemical pollution of environmental facilities in cities of the Krasnoyarsk region produce complex carcinogenic and non-carcinogenic risks which exceed maximum limit. The greatest shares in structure of complex carcinogenic risks are made in food stuff and water consumption in structure of complex non-carcinogenic risks as a result of air pollution and food stuff pollution. Conclusions. Obtained data could be used to set priorities in preventive measures to preserve health of the population in industrial cities of the Krasnoyarsk region.

Comparison of average global exposure of population induced by a macro 3G network in different geographical areas in France and Serbia.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yuanyuan; Varsier, Nadège; Niksic, Stevan; Kocan, Enis; Pejanovic-Djurisic, Milica; Popovic, Milica; Koprivica, Mladen; Neskovic, Aleksandar; Milinkovic, Jelena; Gati, Azeddine; Person, Christian; Wiart, Joe

2016-09-01

This article is the first thorough study of average population exposure to third generation network (3G)-induced electromagnetic fields (EMFs), from both uplink and downlink radio emissions in different countries, geographical areas, and for different wireless device usages. Indeed, previous publications in the framework of exposure to EMFs generally focused on individual exposure coming from either personal devices or base stations. Results, derived from device usage statistics collected in France and Serbia, show a strong heterogeneity of exposure, both in time, that is, the traffic distribution over 24 h was found highly variable, and space, that is, the exposure to 3G networks in France was found to be roughly two times higher than in Serbia. Such heterogeneity is further explained based on real data and network architecture. Among those results, authors show that, contrary to popular belief, exposure to 3G EMFs is dominated by uplink radio emissions, resulting from voice and data traffic, and average population EMF exposure differs from one geographical area to another, as well as from one country to another, due to the different cellular network architectures and variability of mobile usage. Bioelectromagnetics. 37:382-390, 2016. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Incidence and risk factors for suicide attempts in a general population of young people

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christiansen, Erik; Juul Larsen, Kim; Agerbo, Esben

2013-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the Danish epidemiological long-term incidence rates for suicide attempts in the general population of children and adolescents, and to analyze the impact from single and multiple risk factors on the risk of suicide attempts. METHOD: We used longitudinal register data from ...... on the increase in the period studied. Individuals exposed to multiple risk factors are at the highest risk for suicide attempts, and when spotted or in contact with authorities they should be given proper care and treatment to prevent suicide attempts and death.......OBJECTIVE: To estimate the Danish epidemiological long-term incidence rates for suicide attempts in the general population of children and adolescents, and to analyze the impact from single and multiple risk factors on the risk of suicide attempts. METHOD: We used longitudinal register data from...... a total cohort of all individuals born between 1983 and 1989 and living in Denmark to calculate incidence rates. From the cohort, we identified all who have attempted suicide, and matched 50 controls to each case. A nested case-control design was used to estimate the impact from risk factors on the risk...

Combining site occupancy, breeding population sizes and reproductive success to calculate time-averaged reproductive output of different habitat types: an application to Tricolored Blackbirds.

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Marcel Holyoak

Full Text Available In metapopulations in which habitat patches vary in quality and occupancy it can be complicated to calculate the net time-averaged contribution to reproduction of particular populations. Surprisingly, few indices have been proposed for this purpose. We combined occupancy, abundance, frequency of occurrence, and reproductive success to determine the net value of different sites through time and applied this method to a bird of conservation concern. The Tricolored Blackbird (Agelaius tricolor has experienced large population declines, is the most colonial songbird in North America, is largely confined to California, and breeds itinerantly in multiple habitat types. It has had chronically low reproductive success in recent years. Although young produced per nest have previously been compared across habitats, no study has simultaneously considered site occupancy and reproductive success. Combining occupancy, abundance, frequency of occurrence, reproductive success and nest failure rate we found that that large colonies in grain fields fail frequently because of nest destruction due to harvest prior to fledging. Consequently, net time-averaged reproductive output is low compared to colonies in non-native Himalayan blackberry or thistles, and native stinging nettles. Cattail marshes have intermediate reproductive output, but their reproductive output might be improved by active management. Harvest of grain-field colonies necessitates either promoting delay of harvest or creating alternative, more secure nesting habitats. Stinging nettle and marsh colonies offer the main potential sources for restoration or native habitat creation. From 2005-2011 breeding site occupancy declined 3x faster than new breeding colonies were formed, indicating a rapid decline in occupancy. Total abundance showed a similar decline. Causes of variation in the value for reproduction of nesting substrates and factors behind continuing population declines merit urgent

Screening for type 2 diabetes in a high-risk population: Study design and feasibility of a population-based randomized controlled trial

NARCIS (Netherlands)

B. Klijs (Bart); S.J. Otto (Suzie); R.J. Heine (Robert); Y. van der Graaf (Yolanda); J.J. Lous (Jan); H.J. de Koning (Harry)

2012-01-01

textabstractBackground: We describe the design and present the results of the first year of a population-based study of screening for type 2 diabetes in individuals at high risk of developing the disease. High risk is defined as having abdominal obesity. Methods. Between 2006 and 2007, 79,142

Occupational risk factors have to be considered in the definition of high-risk lung cancer populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wild, P; Gonzalez, M; Bourgkard, E; Courouble, N; Clément-Duchêne, C; Martinet, Y; Févotte, J; Paris, C

2012-03-27

The aim of this study was to compute attributable fractions (AF) to occupational factors in an area in North-Eastern France with high lung cancer rates and a past of mining and steel industry. A population-based case-control study among males aged 40-79 was conducted, including confirmed primary lung cancer cases from all hospitals of the study region. Controls were stratified by broad age-classes, district and socioeconomic classes. Detailed occupational and personal risk factors were obtained in face-to-face interviews. Cumulative occupational exposure indices were obtained from the questionnaires. Attributable fractions were computed from multiple unconditional logistic regression models. A total of 246 cases and 531 controls were included. The odds ratios (ORs) adjusted on cumulative smoking and family history of lung cancer increased significantly with the cumulative exposure indices to asbestos, polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and crystalline silica, and with exposure to diesel motor exhaust. The AF for occupational factors exceeded 50%, the most important contributor being crystalline silica and asbestos. These AFs are higher than most published figures. This can be because of the highly industrialised area or methods for exposure assessments. Occupational factors are important risk factors and should not be forgotten when defining high-risk lung cancer populations.

Suicide risk in relation to level of urbanicity - a population-based linkage study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Qin, Ping

2005-01-01

BACKGROUND: The extent to which the high suicide rate in urban areas is influenced by exposures to risk factors for suicide other than urbanicity remains unknown. This population-based study aims to investigate suicide risk in relation to the level of urbanicity in the context of other factors...

Bacterial Populations Associated with Smokeless Tobacco Products

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Jing; Sanad, Yasser M.; Deck, Joanna; Sutherland, John B.; Li, Zhong; Walters, Matthew J.; Duran, Norma; Holman, Matthew R.

2016-01-01

ABSTRACT There are an estimated 8 million users of smokeless tobacco products (STPs) in the United States, and yet limited data on microbial populations within these products exist. To better understand the potential microbiological risks associated with STP use, a study was conducted to provide a baseline microbiological profile of STPs. A total of 90 samples, representing 15 common STPs, were purchased in metropolitan areas in Little Rock, AR, and Washington, DC, in November 2012, March 2013, and July 2013. Bacterial populations were evaluated using culture, pyrosequencing, and denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis (DGGE). Moist-snuff products exhibited higher levels of bacteria (average of 1.05 × 106 CFU/g STP) and diversity of bacterial populations than snus (average of 8.33 × 101 CFU/g STP) and some chewing tobacco products (average of 2.54 × 105 CFU/g STP). The most common species identified by culturing were Bacillus pumilus, B. licheniformis, B. safensis, and B. subtilis, followed by members of the genera Oceanobacillus, Staphylococcus, and Tetragenococcus. Pyrosequencing analyses of the 16S rRNA genes identified the genera Tetragenococcus, Carnobacterium, Lactobacillus, Geobacillus, Bacillus, and Staphylococcus as the predominant taxa. Several species identified are of possible concern due to their potential to cause opportunistic infections and reported abilities to reduce nitrates to nitrites, which may be an important step in the formation of carcinogenic tobacco-specific N′-nitrosamines. This report provides a microbiological baseline to help fill knowledge gaps associated with microbiological risks of STPs and to inform potential regulations regarding manufacture and testing of STPs. IMPORTANCE It is estimated that there 8 million users of smokeless tobacco products (STPs) in the United States; however, there are limited data on microbial populations that exist within these products. The current study was undertaken to better understand the

Incidence of liver trauma and relative risk factors for mortality: A population-based study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li-Chien Chien

2013-10-01

Results: A total of 3196 liver trauma patients were admitted in 2007 and 2008, resulting in 264 deaths. The incidence rate is 13.9/100,000 population. The highest incidence rate was in the age 15–24 years group, 25.9/100,000 population; the highest mortality rate was in the age 75–84 years group, 2.1/100,000 population. Additionally, rural residents possessed a higher incidence and mortality rate than urban residents (15.9/100,000 population vs. 12.2/100,000 population and 1.4/100,000 population vs. 1.0/100,000 population. By using logistic regression, the mortality rate was significantly higher in the groups with patients aged >64 years, renal failure or liver cirrhosis, with head or chest, or other abdominal injury. If a patient received a hepatic or abdominal operation, this was retrospectively found to be associated with increased mortality risk (4.731 times, p US$660 were found to have a higher mortality risk (2.209 times, p  64 years group, pedestrians hit in motor-vehicle accidents, renal failure or liver cirrhosis, with head or chest, or other abdominal injury.

Awareness of Risk Factors for Breast, Lung and Cervical Cancer in a UK Student Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Sherman, Susan M; Lane, Emily L

2015-12-01

The objective of this study is to identify levels of risk awareness for breast, lung and cervical cancer, in a UK student population. A sample of male (N=62) and female (N=58) university students, mean age 21.62 years completed a questionnaire identifying which risk factors they knew for each cancer. Analysis of variance was used to compare differences in risk awareness across gender and cancer types. Risk factor awareness was highest for lung cancer (0.78), mid-range for breast cancer (0.61) and lowest for cervical cancer (0.47). Women had greater risk factor awareness (0.67) than males (0.57) across all three cancers. There is also significant belief in mythic risk factors such as stress (from 14 to 40% across the three cancers). Previous research has demonstrated that risk factor awareness increases with educational status, yet even in a university student population, in which the majority of females would have been offered the HPV vaccination, risk factor awareness for cancers is variable. More health education is needed particularly around the risk factors for cervical cancer.

The MOBILIZE Boston Study: Design and methods of a prospective cohort study of novel risk factors for falls in an older population

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hannan Marian T

2008-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Falls are the sixth leading cause of death in elderly people in the U.S. Despite progress in understanding risk factors for falls, many suspected risk factors have not been adequately studied. Putative risk factors for falls such as pain, reductions in cerebral blood flow, somatosensory deficits, and foot disorders are poorly understood, in part because they pose measurement challenges, particularly for large observational studies. Methods The MOBILIZE Boston Study (MBS, an NIA-funded Program Project, is a prospective cohort study of a unique set of risk factors for falls in seniors in the Boston area. Using a door-to-door population-based recruitment, we have enrolled 765 persons aged 70 and older. The baseline assessment was conducted in 2 segments: a 3-hour home interview followed within 4 weeks by a 3-hour clinic examination. Measures included pain, cerebral hemodynamics, and foot disorders as well as established fall risk factors. For the falls follow-up, participants return fall calendar postcards to the research center at the end of each month. Reports of falls are followed-up with a telephone interview to assess circumstances and consequences of each fall. A second assessment is performed 18 months following baseline. Results Of the 2382 who met all eligibility criteria at the door, 1616 (67.8% agreed to participate and were referred to the research center for further screening. The primary reason for ineligibility was inability to communicate in English. Results from the first 600 participants showed that participants are largely representative of seniors in the Boston area in terms of age, sex, race and Hispanic ethnicity. The average age of study participants was 77.9 years (s.d. 5.5 and nearly two-thirds were women. The study cohort was 78% white and 17% black. Many participants (39% reported having fallen at least once in the year before baseline. Conclusion Our results demonstrate the feasibility of conducting

Thyroid disorders and breast cancer risk in Asian population: a nationwide population-based case-control study in Taiwan.

Science.gov (United States)

Weng, Chien-Hsiang; Chen, Yi-Huei; Lin, Ching-Heng; Luo, Xun; Lin, Tseng-Hsi

2018-03-30

To evaluate whether hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism increases the risk of subsequent breast cancer in an Asian population. Nationwide population-based case-control study. All healthcare facilities in Taiwan. A total of 103 466 women (mean age 53.3 years) were enrolled. 51 733 adult women with newly diagnosed primary breast cancer without a previous cancer history between 2006 and 2011 were identified and included in our study. 51 733 women with no cancer diagnosis prior to the index date were age matched as controls. Diagnosis of hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism prior to the diagnosis of breast cancer or the same index date was identified, age, histories of thyroid disease treatment, oestrogen use and radioactive iodine treatment were adjusted. To identify risk differences in developing breast cancer among patients with a medical history of hyperthyroidism or hypothyroidism. There was a significantly increased risk of breast cancer in women with hyperthyroidism under the age of 55 years (age hypothyroidism also showed an increased risk of breast cancer (OR 1.19, P=0.029) without statistical significance after stratification by age group (age 55 years). Treatment for thyroid disorders did not alter the association in subgroup analyses (P=0.857; 0.262, respectively). Asian women under 55 years of age with history of hyperthyroidism have a significantly increased risk of breast cancer regardless of treatment. Women with history of hypothyroidism may also have an increased risk. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

Comparative Health Risk Assessment of CdTe Solar PV System and Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2014-01-01

In terms of national energy policy decision-making process, several key factors, including low production cost, negligible risk or impact to environment and population around the facility, must be considered. The purpose of this paper is to assess the public health risk in case of postulated nuclear power plant and CdTe solar PV system accident and compare the estimated public health risk. Both systems release toxic materials to the environment which adversely affect nearby population by exposure from the inhalation and ingestion of the toxic material transported via air. By simulating the airborne transport of released toxic material using Gaussian plume model and modeling exposure pathways to nearby population, average individual health risk is assessed and public health risk per power capacity of each system is compared. The result shows that the average public health risk per power capacity of NPP is less than the case of solar PV system. This implies that NPP has lower risk in terms of public health risk in case of severe accident while it can be used as more reliable energy source than renewable energy source so that NPP would take priority over other renewable energy sources in terms of national energy policy

The ERICE-score: the new native cardiovascular score for the low-risk and aged Mediterranean population of Spain.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabriel, Rafael; Brotons, Carlos; Tormo, M José; Segura, Antonio; Rigo, Fernando; Elosua, Roberto; Carbayo, Julio A; Gavrila, Diana; Moral, Irene; Tuomilehto, Jaakko; Muñiz, Javier

2015-03-01

In Spain, data based on large population-based cohorts adequate to provide an accurate prediction of cardiovascular risk have been scarce. Thus, calibration of the EuroSCORE and Framingham scores has been proposed and done for our population. The aim was to develop a native risk prediction score to accurately estimate the individual cardiovascular risk in the Spanish population. Seven Spanish population-based cohorts including middle-aged and elderly participants were assembled. There were 11800 people (6387 women) representing 107915 person-years of follow-up. A total of 1214 cardiovascular events were identified, of which 633 were fatal. Cox regression analyses were conducted to examine the contributions of the different variables to the 10-year total cardiovascular risk. Age was the strongest cardiovascular risk factor. High systolic blood pressure, diabetes mellitus and smoking were strong predictive factors. The contribution of serum total cholesterol was small. Antihypertensive treatment also had a significant impact on cardiovascular risk, greater in men than in women. The model showed a good discriminative power (C-statistic=0.789 in men and C=0.816 in women). Ten-year risk estimations are displayed graphically in risk charts separately for men and women. The ERICE is a new native cardiovascular risk score for the Spanish population derived from the background and contemporaneous risk of several Spanish cohorts. The ERICE score offers the direct and reliable estimation of total cardiovascular risk, taking in consideration the effect of diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular risk factor management. The ERICE score is a practical and useful tool for clinicians to estimate the total individual cardiovascular risk in Spain. Copyright © 2014 Sociedad Española de Cardiología. Published by Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Population attributable risks of oral cavity cancer to behavioral and medical risk factors in France: results of a large population-based case-control study, the ICARE study.

Science.gov (United States)

Radoï, Loredana; Menvielle, Gwenn; Cyr, Diane; Lapôtre-Ledoux, Bénédicte; Stücker, Isabelle; Luce, Danièle

2015-10-31

Population attributable risks (PARs) are useful tool to estimate the burden of risk factors in cancer incidence. Few studies estimated the PARs of oral cavity cancer to tobacco smoking alone, alcohol drinking alone and their joint consumption but none performed analysis stratified by subsite, gender or age. Among the suspected risk factors of oral cavity cancer, only PAR to a family history of head and neck cancer was reported in two studies. The purpose of this study was to estimate in France the PARs of oral cavity cancer to several recognized and suspected risk factors, overall and by subsite, gender and age. We analysed data from 689 oral cavity cancer cases and 3481 controls included in a population-based case-control study, the ICARE study. Unconditional logistic regression models were used to estimate odds ratios (ORs), PARs and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI). The PARs were 0.3% (95% CI -3.9%; +3.9%) for alcohol alone, 12.7% (6.9%-18.0%) for tobacco alone and 69.9% (64.4%-74.7%) for their joint consumption. PAR to combined alcohol and tobacco consumption was 74% (66.5%-79.9%) in men and 45.4% (32.7%-55.6%) in women. Among suspected risk factors, body mass index 2 years before the interview role of combined tobacco and alcohol consumption in the oral cavity cancer burden in France and gives an indication of the proportion of cases attributable to other risk factors. Most of oral cavity cancers are attributable to concurrent smoking and drinking and would be potentially preventable through smoking or drinking cessation. If the majority of cases are explained by recognized or suspected risk factors in men, a substantial number of cancers in women are probably due to still unexplored factors that remain to be clarified by future studies.

Risk of myocardial infarction in parents of HIV-infected Individuals: a population-based Cohort Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Line D; Omland, Lars H; Pedersen, Court

2010-01-01

with the HIV disease and HAART or whether life-style related or genetic factors also increase the risk in this population. To establish whether the increased risk of myocardial infarction in HIV patients partly reflects an increased risk of MI in their families, we estimated the relative risk of MI in parents...

Screening for type 2 diabetes in a high-risk population: study design and feasibility of a population-based randomized controlled trial

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Klijs, B.; Otto, S.J.; Heine, R.J.; van der Graaf, Y.; Lous, J.J.; Koning, H.J.

2012-01-01

Background: We describe the design and present the results of the first year of a population-based study of screening for type 2 diabetes in individuals at high risk of developing the disease. High risk is defined as having abdominal obesity. Methods. Between 2006 and 2007, 79,142 inhabitants of two

Risk factor management in a contemporary Australian population at increased cardiovascular disease risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, D J; Coller, J M; Gong, F F; McGrady, M; Prior, D L; Boffa, U; Shiel, L; Liew, D; Wolfe, R; Owen, A J; Krum, H; Reid, C M

2017-11-14

Effective management of cardiovascular and chronic kidney disease risk factors offers longer, healthier lives and savings in health care. We examined risk factor management in participants of the SCReening Evaluation of the Evolution of New Heart Failure (SCREEN-HF) study, a self-selected population at increased cardiovascular disease risk recruited from members of a health insurance fund in Melbourne and Shepparton, Australia. Inclusion criteria were age ≥60 years with one or more of self-reported ischaemic or other heart disease, irregular or rapid heart rhythm, cerebrovascular disease, renal impairment, or treatment for hypertension or diabetes for ≥2 years. Exclusion criteria were known heart failure or cardiac abnormality on echocardiography or other imaging. Medical history, clinical examination, full blood examination and biochemistry (without lipids and HbA1c) were performed for 3847 participants on enrolment, and blood pressure, lipids and HbA1c were measured 1-2 years after enrolment for 3202 participants. Despite 99% of 3294 participants with hypertension receiving antihypertensive medication, half had blood pressures >140/90 mmHg. Approximately 77% of participants were overweight or obese, with one third obese. Additionally, 74% of participants at high cardiovascular disease risk had low density lipoprotein cholesterol levels ≥2 mmol/l, one third of diabetic participants had HbA1c >7%, 22% had estimated glomerular filtration rate management of modifiable risk factors. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

A probabilistic transmission and population dynamic model to assess tuberculosis infection risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Liao, Chung-Min; Cheng, Yi-Hsien; Lin, Yi-Jun; Hsieh, Nan-Hung; Huang, Tang-Luen; Chio, Chia-Pin; Chen, Szu-Chieh; Ling, Min-Pei

2012-08-01

The purpose of this study was to examine tuberculosis (TB) population dynamics and to assess potential infection risk in Taiwan. A well-established mathematical model of TB transmission built on previous models was adopted to study the potential impact of TB transmission. A probabilistic risk model was also developed to estimate site-specific risks of developing disease soon after recent primary infection, exogenous reinfection, or through endogenous reactivation (latently infected TB) among Taiwan regions. Here, we showed that the proportion of endogenous reactivation (53-67%) was larger than that of exogenous reinfection (32-47%). Our simulations showed that as epidemic reaches a steady state, age distribution of cases would finally shift toward older age groups dominated by latently infected TB cases as a result of endogenous reactivation. A comparison of age-weighted TB incidence data with our model simulation output with 95% credible intervals revealed that the predictions were in an apparent agreement with observed data. The median value of overall basic reproduction number (R₀) in eastern Taiwan ranged from 1.65 to 1.72, whereas northern Taiwan had the lowest R₀ estimate of 1.50. We found that total TB incidences in eastern Taiwan had 25-27% probabilities of total proportion of infected population exceeding 90%, whereas there were 36-66% probabilities having exceeded 20% of total proportion of infected population attributed to latently infected TB. We suggested that our Taiwan-based analysis can be extended to the context of developing countries, where TB remains a substantial cause of elderly morbidity and mortality. © 2012 Society for Risk Analysis.

Extrapolating ecological risks of ionizing radiation from individuals to populations to ecosystems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barnthouse, L.W.

1997-01-01

Approaches for protecting ecosystems from ionizing radiation are quite different from those used for protecting ecosystems from adverse effects of toxic chemicals. The methods used for chemicals are conceptually similar to those used to assess risks of chemicals to human health in that they focus on the protection of the most sensitive or most highly exposed individuals. The assumption is that if sensitive or maximally exposed species and life stages are protected, then ecosystems will be protected. Radiological protection standards, on the other hand, are explicitly premised on the assumption that organisms, populations and ecosystems all possess compensatory capabilities to allow them to survive in the face of unpredictable natural variation in their environments. These capabilities are assumed to persist in the face of at least some exposure to ionizing radiation. The prevailing approach to radiological protection was developed more than 30 years ago, at a time when the terms risk assessment and risk management were rarely used. The expert review approach used to derive radiological protection standards is widely perceived to be inconsistent with the open, participatory approach that prevails today for the regulation of toxic chemicals. The available data for environmental radionuclides vastly exceeds that available for any chemical. Therefore, given an understanding of dose-response relationships for radiation effects and exposures for individual organisms, it should be possible to develop methods for quantifying effects of radiation on populations. A tiered assessment scheme as well as available population models that could be used for the ecological risk assessment of radionuclides is presented. (author)

Is use of fall risk-increasing drugs in an elderly population associated with an increased risk of hip fracture, after adjustment for multimorbidity level

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thorell, Kristine; Ranstad, Karin; Midlöv, Patrik

2014-01-01

BACKGROUND: Risk factors for hip fracture are well studied because of the negative impact on patients and the community, with mortality in the first year being almost 30% in the elderly. Age, gender and fall risk-increasing drugs, identified by the National Board of Health and Welfare in Sweden......, are well known risk factors for hip fracture, but how multimorbidity level affects the risk of hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs is to our knowledge not as well studied. This study explored the relationship between use of fall risk-increasing drugs in combination with multimorbidity...... level and risk of hip fracture in an elderly population. METHODS: Data were from Östergötland County, Sweden, and comprised the total population in the county aged 75 years and older during 2006. The odds ratio (OR) for hip fracture during use of fall risk-increasing drugs was calculated by multivariate...

Impact of classical risk factors of type 2 diabetes among Asian Indian, Chinese and Japanese populations.

Science.gov (United States)

He, L; Tuomilehto, J; Qiao, Q; Söderberg, S; Daimon, M; Chambers, J; Pitkäniemi, J

2015-11-01

This review investigated the population impact of major modifiable type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk factors, with special focus on native Asian Indians, to estimate population attributable risks (PARs) and compare them with estimates from Chinese and Japanese populations. Information was obtained on risk factors in 21,041 Asian Indian, 17,774 Chinese and 17,986 Japanese populations from multiple, large, cross-sectional studies (the DECODA project) of T2D. Crude and adjusted PARs were estimated for the major T2D risk factors. Age had the highest crude and adjusted PARs among Asian Indians and Chinese in contrast to waist-hip ratio among Japanese. After adjusting for age, the PAR for body mass index (BMI) in Asian Indians (41.4% [95% CI: 37.2%; 45.4%]) was second only to triglycerides (46.4% [95% CI: 39.5%; 52.8%]) compared with 35.8% [95% CI: 29.9%; 41.4%] in Japanese and 38.4% [95% CI: 33.5%; 43.2%] in Chinese people. The PAR for BMI adjusted for age, LDL and triglycerides (39.7% [95% CI: 31.6%; 47.2%]) was higher than for any other factor in Asian Indians, and was much higher than in the Chinese (16.8% [95% CI: 3.0%; 30.9%]) and Japanese (30.4% [95% CI: 17.5%; 42.2%]) populations. This review provides estimates of the association between major risk factors and prevalences of T2D among Asian populations by examining their PARs from large population-based samples. From a public-health point of view, the importance of BMI in Asian Indians is especially highlighted in comparison to the other Asian populations. Given these results and other recent findings on the causality link between BMI and T2D, it can be postulated that obesity may be involved in the aetiology of T2D through interaction with ethnic-specific genetic factors, although ethnicity itself is not a direct risk factor for T2D as people of all ethnic backgrounds develop diabetes. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Dietary intake of aflatoxins in the adult Malaysian population - an assessment of risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Chin, C K; Abdullah, A; Sugita-Konishi, Y

2012-01-01

Exposure to aflatoxins in the adult Malaysian diet was estimated by analysing aflatoxins in 236 food composites prepared as "ready for consumption". Dietary exposure to aflatoxin B1 (AFB1) ranged from 24.3 to 34.00 ng/kg b.w./day (lower to upper bound), with peanuts being the main contributor. Estimated liver cancer risk from this exposure was 0.61-0.85 cancers/100,000 population/year, contributing 12.4%-17.3% of the liver cancer cases. Excluding AFB1 occurrence data higher than 15 µg/kg reduced exposure by 65%-91% to 2.27-11.99 ng/kg b.w./day, reducing the cancer risk to 0.06-0.30 cancers/100,000 population/year (contributing 1.2%-6.1% liver cancer cases). Reducing further the ML of AFB1 from 15 to 5 µg/kg yielded 3%-7% greater drop in the exposure to 0.47-10.26 ng/kg b.w./day with an estimated risk of 0.01-0.26 cancers/100,000 population/year (0.2%-5.1% liver cancer cases attributed to dietary AFB1). These findings indicate that current MLs are adequate in protecting Malaysians' health.

Comparative performance of diabetes-specific and general population-based cardiovascular risk assessment models in people with diabetes mellitus.

Science.gov (United States)

Echouffo-Tcheugui, J-B; Kengne, A P

2013-10-01

Multivariable models for estimating cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk in people with diabetes comprise general population-based models and those from diabetic cohorts. Whether one set of models should receive preference is unclear. We evaluated the evidence on direct comparisons of the performance of general population vs diabetes-specific CVD risk models in people with diabetes. MEDLINE and EMBASE databases were searched up to March 2013. Two reviewers independently identified studies that compared the performance of general CVD models vs diabetes-specific ones in the same group of people with diabetes. Independent, dual data extraction on study design, risk models, outcomes; and measures of performance was conducted. Eleven articles reporting on 22 pair wise comparisons of a diabetes-specific model (UKPDS, ADVANCE and DCS risk models) to a general population model (three variants of the Framingham model, Prospective Cardiovascular Münster [PROCAM] score, CardioRisk Manager [CRM], Joint British Societies Coronary Risk Chart [JBSRC], Progetto Cuore algorithm and the CHD-Riskard algorithm) were eligible. Absolute differences in C-statistic of diabetes-specific vs general population-based models varied from -0.13 to 0.09. Comparisons for other performance measures were unusual. Outcomes definitions were congruent with those applied during model development. In 14 comparisons, the UKPDS, ADVANCE or DCS diabetes-specific models were superior to the general population CVD risk models. Authors reported better C-statistic for models they developed. The limited existing evidence suggests a possible discriminatory advantage of diabetes-specific over general population-based models for CVD risk stratification in diabetes. More robust head-to-head comparisons are needed to confirm this trend and strengthen recommendations. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

Assessing Risks to Wildlife Populations from Multiple Stressors: Overview of the Problem and Research Needs.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wayne R. Munns, Jr.

2006-06-01

Full Text Available Wildlife populations are experiencing increasing pressure from human-induced changes in the landscape. Stressors including agricultural and urban land use, introduced invasive and exotic species, nutrient enrichment, direct human disturbance, and toxic chemicals directly or indirectly influence the quality and quantity of habitat used by terrestrial and aquatic wildlife. Governmental agencies such as the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency are required to assess risks to wildlife populations, in its broadest definition, that result from exposure to these stressors, yet considerable uncertainty exists with respect to how such assessments should be conducted. This uncertainty is compounded by questions concerning the interactive effects of co-occurring stressors, appropriate spatial scales of analysis, extrapolation of response data among species and from organisms to populations, and imperfect knowledge and use of limited data sets. Further, different risk problems require varying degrees of sophistication, methodological refinement, and data quality. These issues suggest a number of research needs to improve methods for wildlife risk assessments, including continued development of population dynamics models to evaluate the effects of multiple stressors at varying spatial scales, methods for extrapolating across endpoints and species with reasonable confidence, stressor-response relations and methods for combining them in predictive and diagnostic assessments, and accessible data sets describing the ecology of terrestrial and aquatic species. Case study application of models and methods for assessing wildlife risk will help to demonstrate their strengths and limitations for solving particular risk problems.

Estimating micro area behavioural risk factor prevalence from large population-based surveys: a full Bayesian approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L. Seliske

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background An important public health goal is to decrease the prevalence of key behavioural risk factors, such as tobacco use and obesity. Survey information is often available at the regional level, but heterogeneity within large geographic regions cannot be assessed. Advanced spatial analysis techniques are demonstrated to produce sensible micro area estimates of behavioural risk factors that enable identification of areas with high prevalence. Methods A spatial Bayesian hierarchical model was used to estimate the micro area prevalence of current smoking and excess bodyweight for the Erie-St. Clair region in southwestern Ontario. Estimates were mapped for male and female respondents of five cycles of the Canadian Community Health Survey (CCHS. The micro areas were 2006 Census Dissemination Areas, with an average population of 400–700 people. Two individual-level models were specified: one controlled for survey cycle and age group (model 1, and one controlled for survey cycle, age group and micro area median household income (model 2. Post-stratification was used to derive micro area behavioural risk factor estimates weighted to the population structure. SaTScan analyses were conducted on the granular, postal-code level CCHS data to corroborate findings of elevated prevalence. Results Current smoking was elevated in two urban areas for both sexes (Sarnia and Windsor, and an additional small community (Chatham for males only. Areas of excess bodyweight were prevalent in an urban core (Windsor among males, but not females. Precision of the posterior post-stratified current smoking estimates was improved in model 2, as indicated by narrower credible intervals and a lower coefficient of variation. For excess bodyweight, both models had similar precision. Aggregation of the micro area estimates to CCHS design-based estimates validated the findings. Conclusions This is among the first studies to apply a full Bayesian model to complex

Colon cancer controls versus population controls in case-control studies of occupational risk factors

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kaerlev, Linda; Lynge, Elsebeth; Sabroe, Svend

2004-01-01

are interchangeable with the experience for population controls. Patient controls may even be preferable from population controls under certain conditions. In this study we examine if colon cancer patients can serve as surrogates for proper population controls in case-control studies of occupational risk factors...... about occupational, medical and life style conditions. RESULTS: No statistical significant difference for educational level, medical history or smoking status was seen between the two control groups. There was evidence of a higher alcohol intake, less frequent work as a farmer and less exposure...... to pesticides among colon cancer controls. CONCLUSIONS: Use of colon cancer controls may provide valid exposure estimates in studies of many occupational risk factors for cancer, but not for studies on exposure related to farming....

Estimated Daily Average Per Capita Water Ingestion by Child and Adult Age Categories Based on USDA's 1994-96 and 1998 Continuing Survey of Food Intakes by Individuals (Journal Article)

Science.gov (United States)

Current water ingestion estimates are important for the assessment of risk to human populations of exposure to water-borne pollutants. This paper reports mean and percentile estimates of the distributions of daily average per capita water ingestion for 12 age range groups. The a...

[Cardiovascular risk factors in the population at risk of poverty and social exclusión].

Science.gov (United States)

Álvarez-Fernández, Carlos; Vaquero-Abellán, Manuel; Ruíz-Gandara, África; Romero-Saldaña, Manuel; Álvarez-López, Carlos

2017-03-01

Detect if there are differences in prevalence, distribution of cardiovascular risk factors and risk according to REGICOR and SCORE's function; between people belonging to different occupational classes and population at risk of social exclusion. Cross-sectional. SITE: Occupational health unit of the City Hall of Córdoba. Sample availability of 628 people, excluding 59 by age or incomplete data. The group of municipal workers was obtained randomly while all contracted exclusion risk was taken. No preventive, diagnostic or therapeutic actions that modify the course of the previous situation of workers were applied. Smoke, glucose, lipids, blood pressure and BMI as main variables. T-student were used for comparison of means and percentages for Chi 2 . Statistical significance attached to an alpha error <5% and confidence interval with a 95% security. Receiver operator curves (ROC) were employed to find out what explanatory variables predict group membership of workers at risk of exclusion. Smoking (95% CI: -.224;-.443), hypercholesterolemia (95% CI: -.127;-.320), obesity (95% CI: -.005;-0.214), diabetes (95% CI: -.060;-.211) and cardiovascular risk were higher in men at risk of exclusion. In women there were differences in the same variables except smoking (P=.053). The existence of inequalities in prevalence of cardiovascular risk factors is checked. In a context of social crisis, health promotion and primary prevention programs directing to the most vulnerable, they are needed to mit. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy in Europe: a population-based study using data from the ERA-EDTA Registry.

Science.gov (United States)

van den Brand, Jan A J G; Pippias, Maria; Stel, Vianda S; Caskey, Fergus J; Collart, Frederic; Finne, Partik; Heaf, James; Jais, Jean-Philippe; Kramar, Reinhard; Massy, Ziad A; De Meester, Johan; Traynor, Jamie P; Reisæter, Anna Varberg; Wetzels, Jack F M; Jager, Kitty J

2017-02-01

Upcoming KDIGO guidelines for the evaluation of living kidney donors are expected to move towards a personal risk-based evaluation of potential donors. We present the age and sex-specific lifetime risk of renal replacement therapy (RRT) for end-stage renal disease in 10 European countries. We defined lifetime risk of RRT as the cumulative incidence of RRT up to age 90 years. We obtained RRT incidence rates per million population by 5-year age groups and sex using data from the European Renal Association-European Dialysis and Transplant Association (ERA-EDTA) Registry, and used these to estimate the cumulative incidence of RRT, adjusting for competing mortality risk. Lifetime risk of RRT varied from 0.44% to 2.05% at age 20 years and from 0.17% to 1.59% at age 70 years across countries, and was twice as high in men as in women. Lifetime RRT risk decreased with age, ranging from an average of 0.77% to 0.44% in 20- to- 70-year-old women, and from 1.45% to 0.96% in 20- to- 70-year-old men. The lifetime risk of RRT increased slightly over the past decade, more so in men than in women. However, it appears to have stabilized or even decreased slightly in more recent years. The lifetime risk of RRT decreased with age, was lower in women as compared with men of equal age and varied considerably throughout Europe. Given the substantial differences in lifetime risk of RRT between the USA and Europe, country-specific estimates should be used in the evaluation and communication of the risk of RRT for potential living kidney donors. © The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.

Peripheral immune abnormalities in two high-risk populations for bipolar disorder

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Snijders, G.; Schiweck, C.; Brouwer, R.; Mesman, E.; Grosse, L.; de Wit, H; Nolen, W. A.; Drexhage, H. A.; Hillegers, M. H. J.

Objective: Mounting data support the hypothesis for a role of the immune system in the pathophysiology of bipolar disorder. The aim of this study was to examine immune alterations in two unique familial high-risk cohorts for bipolar disorder. Methods: The study population comprised bipolar

Reducing the extinction risk of stochastic populations via nondemographic noise

Science.gov (United States)

Be'er, Shay; Assaf, Michael

2018-02-01

We consider nondemographic noise in the form of uncertainty in the reaction step size and reveal a dramatic effect this noise may have on the stability of self-regulating populations. Employing the reaction scheme m A →k A but allowing, e.g., the product number k to be a priori unknown and sampled from a given distribution, we show that such nondemographic noise can greatly reduce the population's extinction risk compared to the fixed k case. Our analysis is tested against numerical simulations, and by using empirical data of different species, we argue that certain distributions may be more evolutionary beneficial than others.

Application of the Value Averaging Investment Method on the US Stock Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Širůček

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on empirical testing and the use of the regular investment, particularly on the value averaging investment method on real data from the US stock market in the years 1990–2013. The 23-year period was chosen because of a consistently interesting situation in the market and so this regular investment method could be tested to see how it works in a bull (expansion period and a bear (recession period. The analysis is focused on results obtained by using this investment method from the viewpoint of return and risk on selected investment horizons (short-term 1 year, medium-term 5 years and long-term 10 years. The selected aim is reached by using the ratio between profit and risk. The revenue-risk profile is the ratio of the average annual profit rate measured for each investment by the internal rate of return and average annual risk expressed by selective standard deviation. The obtained results show that regular investment is suitable for a long investment horizon or the longer the investment horizon, the better the revenue-risk ratio (Sharpe ratio. According to the results obtained, specific investment recommendations are presented in the conclusion, e.g. if this investment method is suitable for a long investment period, if it is better to use value averaging for a growing, sinking or sluggish market, etc.

[Prevalence of diabetes and impaired glucose regulation in Chengdu populations and associated dietary risk factors].

Science.gov (United States)

Dai, Hua; Chen, Li-Yu; Li, Shuang-Qing

2014-01-01

To determine the prevalence of type 2 DM and impaired glucose regulation (IGR) in Chengdu populations and to identify dietary risk factors associated with DM and IGR. Two communities in Chengdu were selected for this study. Fasting blood-glucose (FBG) and 2-hour post-meal blood glucose (2 hGlu) tests were performed in the community residents. The participants were asked to complete a questionair recording their daily food intaking. The total calorie of food, percentage of different kinds of food, and intake of electrolyte, vietamine and micro minerals were calculated and compared between those with and without type 2 DM or IGR. Of the study participants, 18.59% had type 2 DM and 24.22% had IGR. Those with DM had higher levels of intake of calorie,fat,protein and sodium, and lower levels of intake of cellulose, carbohydrates, Iron, zinc, selenium,manganese and vietamine C and E compared with those without DM/IGR (P vitamine C and E compared with those without DM/IGR (P Vitamine E was identified as a protective factor of type 2 DM (OR = 0.733) and IGR (OR = 0.990). Chengdu has a higher than national average prevalence of type 2 DM and IGR. The high percentage of dietary fat and low levels of Vitamine E are major risk factors of type 2 DM and IGR.

Fasting insulin, insulin resistance and risk of hypertension in the general population: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Feng; Han, Lili; Hu, Dayi

2017-01-01

Studies on the association of fasting insulin concentrations or insulin resistance with subsequent risk of hypertension have yielded conflicting results. To quantitatively assess the association of fasting insulin concentrations or homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) with incident hypertension in a general population by performing a meta-analysis. We searched the PubMed and Embase databases until August 31, 2016 for prospective observational studies investigating the elevated fasting insulin concentrations or HOMA-IR with subsequent risk of hypertension in the general population. Pooled risk ratio (RR) and 95% confidence interval (CI) of hypertension was calculated for the highest versus the lowest category of fasting insulin or HOMA-IR. Eleven studies involving 10,230 hypertension cases were identified from 55,059 participants. Meta-analysis showed that the pooled adjusted RR of hypertension was 1.54 (95% CI 1.34-1.76) for fasting insulin concentrations and 1.43 (95% CI 1.27-1.62) for HOMA-IR comparing the highest to the lowest category. Subgroup analysis results showed that the association of fasting insulin concentrations with subsequent risk of hypertension seemed more pronounced in women (RR 2.07; 95% CI 1.19-3.60) than in men (RR 1.48; 95% CI 1.17-1.88). This meta-analysis suggests that elevated fasting insulin concentrations or insulin resistance as estimated by homeostasis model assessment is independently associated with an exacerbated risk of hypertension in the general population. Early intervention of hyperinsulinemia or insulin resistance may help clinicians to identify the high risk of hypertensive population. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Personality differences in two minnow populations that differ in their parasitism and predation risk

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Raine eKortet

2015-02-01

Full Text Available Animals are often individually consistent in their behavior, not only over time, but also across different functional contexts. Recent research has focused on phenotypic and evolutionary mechanisms explaining such personality differences through selection. Parasitism and predation induce important mortality and fitness costs, and are thus the main candidates to create and maintain personality differences in the wild. Here, we present data on the behavioral consistency of the Eurasian minnow (Phoxinus phoxinus from two populations that live in different tributaries of the same river, but whose ecological environment differs fundamentally with regard to predation and parasitism. We experimentally demonstrate that minnow in both study populations are consistent in their boldness and activity. However, the two study populations differ notably: in the high predation and parasitism risk population fish show higher mean boldness, but tend to be less active than fish in low predation and parasitism risk population. Parasite (Diplostomum phoxini load was negatively, but not statistically significantly, associated with fish activity level. Our study suggests that parasitism and predation are likely important agents in the ecology and evolution of animal personalities.

Exposure to sennoside-digoxin interaction and risk of digoxin toxicity: a population-based nested case-control study.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Meng-Ting; Li, I-Hsun; Lee, Wan-Ju; Huang, Tien-Yu; Leu, Hsin-Bang; Chan, Agnes L F

2011-11-01

Digoxin is an important medication for heart failure (HF) patients and sennosides are widely used to treat constipation. Recently, safety concerns have been raised about a possible interaction between sennosides and digoxin, an issue that has not been studied empirically. This study therefore aimed to evaluate whether exposure to sennoside-digoxin interaction is associated with an increased risk of digoxin toxicity. This was a population-based nested case-control study that analysed data obtained from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2004. All HF patients treated with digoxin for the first time were included as the study cohort. Of these, cases were identified as subjects hospitalized for digoxin toxicity (International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification, ICD-9-CM 972.1), and matched to randomly selected controls. Use of sennosides was compared between the two groups. Odds ratios (ORs) were employed to quantify the risk associated with exposure to sennoside-digoxin interaction by conditional logistic regression. The study cohort comprised 222,527 HF patients, of whom 524 were identified as cases and 2,502 as matched controls. Use of sennosides during the 14 days preceding the index date was found to be associated with a 1.61-fold increased risk of digoxin toxicity [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.15, 2.25]. Additionally, a greater risk was observed for sennosides prescribed at an average daily dose ≥ 24 mg (adjusted OR = 1.93; 95% CI = 1.27, 2.94). The combined use of sennosides and digoxin was found to be associated with a modest increased risk of digoxin toxicity in HF patients.

An obesity/cardiometabolic risk reduction disease management program: a population-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Villagra, Victor G

2009-04-01

Obesity is a critical health concern that has captured the attention of public and private healthcare payers who are interested in controlling costs and mitigating the long-term economic consequences of the obesity epidemic. Population-based approaches to obesity management have been proposed that take advantage of a chronic care model (CCM), including patient self-care, the use of community-based resources, and the realization of care continuity through ongoing communications with patients, information technology, and public policy changes. Payer-sponsored disease management programs represent an important conduit to delivering population-based care founded on similar CCM concepts. Disease management is founded on population-based disease identification, evidence-based care protocols, and collaborative practices between clinicians. While substantial clinician training, technology infrastructure commitments, and financial support at the payer level will be needed for the success of disease management programs in obesity and cardiometabolic risk reduction, these barriers can be overcome with the proper commitment. Disease management programs represent an important tool to combat the growing societal risks of overweight and obesity.

Biology as population dynamics: heuristics for transmission risk.

Science.gov (United States)

Keebler, Daniel; Walwyn, David; Welte, Alex

2013-02-01

Population-type models, accounting for phenomena such as population lifetimes, mixing patterns, recruitment patterns, genetic evolution and environmental conditions, can be usefully applied to the biology of HIV infection and viral replication. A simple dynamic model can explore the effect of a vaccine-like stimulus on the mortality and infectiousness, which formally looks like fertility, of invading virions; the mortality of freshly infected cells; and the availability of target cells, all of which impact on the probability of infection. Variations on this model could capture the importance of the timing and duration of different key events in viral transmission, and hence be applied to questions of mucosal immunology. The dynamical insights and assumptions of such models are compatible with the continuum of between- and within-individual risks in sexual violence and may be helpful in making sense of the sparse data available on the association between HIV transmission and sexual violence. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Using risk-tracing snowball approach to increase HIV case detection among high-risk populations in Cambodia: an intervention study.

Science.gov (United States)

Chhim, Srean; Macom, John; Pav, Chettana; Nim, Nirada; Yun, Phearun; Seng, Sopheap; Chhim, Kolab; Tuot, Sovannary; Yi, Siyan

2017-10-18

Early HIV diagnosis and initiation onto antiretroviral therapy may prevent ongoing spread of HIV. Risk Tracing Snowball Approach (RTSA) has been shown to be effective in detecting new HIV cases in other settings. The main objective of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of RTSA in increasing the rate of newly identified HIV cases among high-risk populations. Our second objective was to evaluate the effectiveness of RTSA, as compared to the walk-in group, in increasing the number of HIV tests and early case detection. This study was conducted from April 1 to September 30, 2016 at two NGO clinics in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. Respondent driven sampling method was adapted to develop RTSA to reach high-risk populations, including key populations and the general population who have social connections with key populations. Bivariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted. During the implementation period, 721 clients walked in for HIV testing (walk-in group), and all were invited to be seeds. Of the invited clients, 36.6% agreed to serve as seeds. Throughout the implementation, 6195 coupons were distributed to seeds or recruiters, and resulted in 1572 clients visiting the two clinics with coupons (RTSA group), for a coupon return rate of 25.3%. The rate of newly identified HIV cases among the RTSA group was significantly lower compared to that in walk-in group. However, the highest number of newly identified HIV cases was found during the implementation period, compared to both pre- and post-implementation period. Although statistically not significant, the mean CD4 count of newly identified HIV cases detected through RTSA was almost 200 cells/mm3 higher than that in the walk-in group. Although the rate of newly identified HIV cases among the RTSA group was lower than that in the walk-in group, the inclusion of RTSA in addition to the traditional walk-in method boosted new HIV case detection in the two participating clinics. A higher mean CD4

Risk of adverse birth outcomes in populations living near landfill sites

Science.gov (United States)

Elliott, Paul; Briggs, David; Morris, Sara; de Hoogh, Cornelis; Hurt, Christopher; Jensen, Tina Kold; Maitland, Ian; Richardson, Sylvia; Wakefield, Jon; Jarup, Lars

2001-01-01

Objective To investigate the risk of adverse birth outcomes associated with residence near landfill sites in Great Britain. Design Geographical study of risks of adverse birth outcomes in populations living within 2 km of 9565 landfill sites operational at some time between 1982 and 1997 (from a total of 19 196 sites) compared with those living further away. Setting Great Britain. Subjects Over 8.2 million live births, 43 471 stillbirths, and 124 597 congenital anomalies (including terminations). Main outcome measures All congenital anomalies combined, some specific anomalies, and prevalence of low and very low birth weight (<2500 g and <1500 g). Results For all anomalies combined, relative risk of residence near landfill sites (all waste types) was 0.92 (99% confidence interval 0.907 to 0.923) unadjusted, and 1.01 (1.005 to 1.023) adjusted for confounders. Adjusted risks were 1.05 (1.01 to 1.10) for neural tube defects, 0.96 (0.93 to 0.99) for cardiovascular defects, 1.07 (1.04 to 1.10) for hypospadias and epispadias (with no excess of surgical correction), 1.08 (1.01 to 1.15) for abdominal wall defects, 1.19 (1.05 to 1.34) for surgical correction of gastroschisis and exomphalos, and 1.05 (1.047 to 1.055) and 1.04 (1.03 to 1.05) for low and very low birth weight respectively. There was no excess risk of stillbirth. Findings for special (hazardous) waste sites did not differ systematically from those for non-special sites. For some specific anomalies, higher risks were found in the period before opening compared with after opening of a landfill site, especially hospital admissions for abdominal wall defects. Conclusions We found small excess risks of congenital anomalies and low and very low birth weight in populations living near landfill sites. No causal mechanisms are available to explain these findings, and alternative explanations include data artefacts and residual confounding. Further studies are needed to help differentiate between the various

Proton Pump Inhibitor Usage and the Risk of Myocardial Infarction in the General Population.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nigam H Shah

Full Text Available Proton pump inhibitors (PPIs have been associated with adverse clinical outcomes amongst clopidogrel users after an acute coronary syndrome. Recent pre-clinical results suggest that this risk might extend to subjects without any prior history of cardiovascular disease. We explore this potential risk in the general population via data-mining approaches.Using a novel approach for mining clinical data for pharmacovigilance, we queried over 16 million clinical documents on 2.9 million individuals to examine whether PPI usage was associated with cardiovascular risk in the general population.In multiple data sources, we found gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD patients exposed to PPIs to have a 1.16 fold increased association (95% CI 1.09-1.24 with myocardial infarction (MI. Survival analysis in a prospective cohort found a two-fold (HR = 2.00; 95% CI 1.07-3.78; P = 0.031 increase in association with cardiovascular mortality. We found that this association exists regardless of clopidogrel use. We also found that H2 blockers, an alternate treatment for GERD, were not associated with increased cardiovascular risk; had they been in place, such pharmacovigilance algorithms could have flagged this risk as early as the year 2000.Consistent with our pre-clinical findings that PPIs may adversely impact vascular function, our data-mining study supports the association of PPI exposure with risk for MI in the general population. These data provide an example of how a combination of experimental studies and data-mining approaches can be applied to prioritize drug safety signals for further investigation.

Characteristics of cardiovascular risk factors in an urban and rural population of the Peruvian jungle - July, 2014

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yordan Martínez-Espichán

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Objective: To determine the characteristics of the place of residence and the cardiovascular risk factors in a Peruvian jungle population in July 2014. Materials and methods: A descriptive cross-sectional study conducted in individuals between 30 and 74 years old without a diagnosis of or treatment for a cardiovascular disease in an urban and rural population of the district of Yantaló. The sample was obtained using the Power Analysis and Sample Size Software (PASS program, and consisted of 268 people (152 urban and 116 rural residents. The studied factors were hypertension (HBP, diabetes mellitus (DM, body mass index (BMI, waist-hip ratio (WHR and smoking. Results: The urban population had higher rates of hypertension (18.4%, while the other risk factors showed no significant differences between the two populations. Conclusions: The only risk factor that showed a significant association with the place of residence was hypertension. In contrast, the other risk factors of the study showed no differences between the two populations, which demonstrates that the district of Yantaló is involved in a process of epidemiological transition due to urbanization.

Temporal and Spatial Simulation of Atmospheric Pollutant PM2.5 Changes and Risk Assessment of Population Exposure to Pollution Using Optimization Algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network Model and GIS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ping Zhang

2015-09-01

Full Text Available PM2.5 pollution has become of increasing public concern because of its relative importance and sensitivity to population health risks. Accurate predictions of PM2.5 pollution and population exposure risks are crucial to developing effective air pollution control strategies. We simulated and predicted the temporal and spatial changes of PM2.5 concentration and population exposure risks, by coupling optimization algorithms of the Back Propagation-Artificial Neural Network (BP-ANN model and a geographical information system (GIS in Xi’an, China, for 2013, 2020, and 2025. Results indicated that PM2.5 concentration was positively correlated with GDP, SO2, and NO2, while it was negatively correlated with population density, average temperature, precipitation, and wind speed. Principal component analysis of the PM2.5 concentration and its influencing factors’ variables extracted four components that accounted for 86.39% of the total variance. Correlation coefficients of the Levenberg-Marquardt (trainlm and elastic (trainrp algorithms were more than 0.8, the index of agreement (IA ranged from 0.541 to 0.863 and from 0.502 to 0.803 by trainrp and trainlm algorithms, respectively; mean bias error (MBE and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE indicated that the predicted values were very close to the observed values, and the accuracy of trainlm algorithm was better than the trainrp. Compared to 2013, temporal and spatial variation of PM2.5 concentration and risk of population exposure to pollution decreased in 2020 and 2025. The high-risk areas of population exposure to PM2.5 were mainly distributed in the northern region, where there is downtown traffic, abundant commercial activity, and more exhaust emissions. A moderate risk zone was located in the southern region associated with some industrial pollution sources, and there were mainly low-risk areas in the western and eastern regions, which are predominantly residential and educational areas.

Assessing privacy risks in population health publications using a checklist-based approach.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Keefe, Christine M; Ickowicz, Adrien; Churches, Tim; Westcott, Mark; O'Sullivan, Maree; Khan, Atikur

2017-11-10

Recent growth in the number of population health researchers accessing detailed datasets, either on their own computers or through virtual data centers, has the potential to increase privacy risks. In response, a checklist for identifying and reducing privacy risks in population health analysis outputs has been proposed for use by researchers themselves. In this study we explore the usability and reliability of such an approach by investigating whether different users identify the same privacy risks on applying the checklist to a sample of publications. The checklist was applied to a sample of 100 academic population health publications distributed among 5 readers. Cohen's κ was used to measure interrater agreement. Of the 566 instances of statistical output types found in the 100 publications, the most frequently occurring were counts, summary statistics, plots, and model outputs. Application of the checklist identified 128 outputs (22.6%) with potential privacy concerns. Most of these were associated with the reporting of small counts. Among these identified outputs, the readers found no substantial actual privacy concerns when context was taken into account. Interrater agreement for identifying potential privacy concerns was generally good. This study has demonstrated that a checklist can be a reliable tool to assist researchers with anonymizing analysis outputs in population health research. This further suggests that such an approach may have the potential to be developed into a broadly applicable standard providing consistent confidentiality protection across multiple analyses of the same data. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the American Medical Informatics Association. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com

Interleukin-1 gene locus polymorphisms are associated with risk to breast cancer in Croatian population

OpenAIRE

KAARVATN, MARIKKEN HEILAND; KROG EFTEDAL, RANDI; VRBANEC, JURICA; JOTANOVIC, ZDRAVKO; ETOKEBE, GODFREY E.; BALEN, SANJA; KULIC, ANA; DEMBIC, ZLATKO

2012-01-01

Breast cancer has a complex genetic susceptibility. Innate and adaptive immunity can additionally increase the genetic risk to breast cancer development. We typed polymorphisms in the genes of the interleukin(IL)-1 and IL-17 proinflammatory cytokines in a case-control study in Caucasian population from Croatia. We compared the allelic and genotypic frequencies between patients (n=194), healthy women (n=188) and general population (n=531). The risk for breast cancer has been significantly diff...

Developing a synthetic national population to investigate the impact of different cardiovascular disease risk management strategies: A derivation and validation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Knight, Josh; Wells, Susan; Marshall, Roger; Exeter, Daniel; Jackson, Rod

2017-01-01

Many national cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factor management guidelines now recommend that drug treatment decisions should be informed primarily by patients' multi-variable predicted risk of CVD, rather than on the basis of single risk factor thresholds. To investigate the potential impact of treatment guidelines based on CVD risk thresholds at a national level requires individual level data representing the multi-variable CVD risk factor profiles for a country's total adult population. As these data are seldom, if ever, available, we aimed to create a synthetic population, representing the joint CVD risk factor distributions of the adult New Zealand population. A synthetic population of 2,451,278 individuals, representing the actual age, gender, ethnicity and social deprivation composition of people aged 30-84 years who completed the 2013 New Zealand census was generated using Monte Carlo sampling. Each 'synthetic' person was then probabilistically assigned values of the remaining cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors required for predicting their CVD risk, based on data from the national census national hospitalisation and drug dispensing databases and a large regional cohort study, using Monte Carlo sampling and multiple imputation. Where possible, the synthetic population CVD risk distributions for each non-demographic risk factor were validated against independent New Zealand data sources. We were able to develop a synthetic national population with realistic multi-variable CVD risk characteristics. The construction of this population is the first step in the development of a micro-simulation model intended to investigate the likely impact of a range of national CVD risk management strategies that will inform CVD risk management guideline updates in New Zealand and elsewhere.

Population-Level Prediction of Type 2 Diabetes From Claims Data and Analysis of Risk Factors.

Science.gov (United States)

Razavian, Narges; Blecker, Saul; Schmidt, Ann Marie; Smith-McLallen, Aaron; Nigam, Somesh; Sontag, David

2015-12-01

We present a new approach to population health, in which data-driven predictive models are learned for outcomes such as type 2 diabetes. Our approach enables risk assessment from readily available electronic claims data on large populations, without additional screening cost. Proposed model uncovers early and late-stage risk factors. Using administrative claims, pharmacy records, healthcare utilization, and laboratory results of 4.1 million individuals between 2005 and 2009, an initial set of 42,000 variables were derived that together describe the full health status and history of every individual. Machine learning was then used to methodically enhance predictive variable set and fit models predicting onset of type 2 diabetes in 2009-2011, 2010-2012, and 2011-2013. We compared the enhanced model with a parsimonious model consisting of known diabetes risk factors in a real-world environment, where missing values are common and prevalent. Furthermore, we analyzed novel and known risk factors emerging from the model at different age groups at different stages before the onset. Parsimonious model using 21 classic diabetes risk factors resulted in area under ROC curve (AUC) of 0.75 for diabetes prediction within a 2-year window following the baseline. The enhanced model increased the AUC to 0.80, with about 900 variables selected as predictive (p differences between AUCs). Similar improvements were observed for models predicting diabetes onset 1-3 years and 2-4 years after baseline. The enhanced model improved positive predictive value by at least 50% and identified novel surrogate risk factors for type 2 diabetes, such as chronic liver disease (odds ratio [OR] 3.71), high alanine aminotransferase (OR 2.26), esophageal reflux (OR 1.85), and history of acute bronchitis (OR 1.45). Liver risk factors emerge later in the process of diabetes development compared with obesity-related factors such as hypertension and high hemoglobin A1c. In conclusion, population-level risk

Prevalence of rearrangements in the 22q11.2 region and population-based risk of neuropsychiatric and developmental disorders in a Danish population

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olsen, Line; Sparsø, Thomas; Weinsheimer, Shantel M

2018-01-01

BACKGROUND: Although the pathogenic nature of copy number variants (CNVs) on chromosome 22q11.2 has been recognised for decades, unbiased estimates of their population prevalence, mortality, disease risks, and diagnostic trajectories are absent. We aimed to provide the true population prevalence ...

Cardiovascular Disease Population Risk Tool (CVDPoRT): predictive algorithm for assessing CVD risk in the community setting. A study protocol.

Science.gov (United States)

Taljaard, Monica; Tuna, Meltem; Bennett, Carol; Perez, Richard; Rosella, Laura; Tu, Jack V; Sanmartin, Claudia; Hennessy, Deirdre; Tanuseputro, Peter; Lebenbaum, Michael; Manuel, Douglas G

2014-10-23

Recent publications have called for substantial improvements in the design, conduct, analysis and reporting of prediction models. Publication of study protocols, with prespecification of key aspects of the analysis plan, can help to improve transparency, increase quality and protect against increased type I error. Valid population-based risk algorithms are essential for population health planning and policy decision-making. The purpose of this study is to develop, evaluate and apply cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk algorithms for the population setting. The Ontario sample of the Canadian Community Health Survey (2001, 2003, 2005; 77,251 respondents) will be used to assess risk factors focusing on health behaviours (physical activity, diet, smoking and alcohol use). Incident CVD outcomes will be assessed through linkage to administrative healthcare databases (619,886 person-years of follow-up until 31 December 2011). Sociodemographic factors (age, sex, immigrant status, education) and mediating factors such as presence of diabetes and hypertension will be included as predictors. Algorithms will be developed using competing risks survival analysis. The analysis plan adheres to published recommendations for the development of valid prediction models to limit the risk of overfitting and improve the quality of predictions. Key considerations are fully prespecifying the predictor variables; appropriate handling of missing data; use of flexible functions for continuous predictors; and avoiding data-driven variable selection procedures. The 2007 and 2009 surveys (approximately 50,000 respondents) will be used for validation. Calibration will be assessed overall and in predefined subgroups of importance to clinicians and policymakers. This study has been approved by the Ottawa Health Science Network Research Ethics Board. The findings will be disseminated through professional and scientific conferences, and in peer-reviewed journals. The algorithm will be accessible

Evacuation Risks: a tentative approach for quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bastien, M.C.; Dumas, M.; Laporte, J; Parmentier, N.

1985-01-01

This study tries to assess the risk of deaths and injuries from motor vehicle accidents associated with an evacuation of population groups in case of nuclear plant accidents. The risk per person-km is evaluated using: (a) data from previous evacuation: information from Soufriere evacuation (Guadeloupe Island 1976) and Mississauga (1979), added to Hans and Sell's data: no road accident occurred for a sample of 1,500,000 persons; (b) national recording system for motor vehicle accident: the rates of 2.2 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 32 10 -8 injuries per person-km is calculated as an average. These last rates in France overestimate the number of casualties. A reasonable hypothesis is to assume that the probability of road accident occurrence follows a Poisson distribution, as these events are independent and unfrequent, as no accident was observed in a sample of 1,500,000 persons the probability is between 0 and an upper value of 0.24 10 -8 deaths per person-km and 3.29 10 -8 injuries per person-km. The average and maximum population involved within different radii around French and U.S. Nuclear power sites are taken as a sample size in order to study the total risk of deaths and injuries in the hypothesis of an evacuation being necessary to protect the populations

Social deprivation and population density are not associated with small area risk of amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Rooney, James P K; Tobin, Katy; Crampsie, Arlene; Vajda, Alice; Heverin, Mark; McLaughlin, Russell; Staines, Anthony; Hardiman, Orla

2015-10-01

Evidence of an association between areal ALS risk and population density has been previously reported. We aim to examine ALS spatial incidence in Ireland using small areas, to compare this analysis with our previous analysis of larger areas and to examine the associations between population density, social deprivation and ALS incidence. Residential area social deprivation has not been previously investigated as a risk factor for ALS. Using the Irish ALS register, we included all cases of ALS diagnosed in Ireland from 1995-2013. 2006 census data was used to calculate age and sex standardised expected cases per small area. Social deprivation was assessed using the pobalHP deprivation index. Bayesian smoothing was used to calculate small area relative risk for ALS, whilst cluster analysis was performed using SaTScan. The effects of population density and social deprivation were tested in two ways: (1) as covariates in the Bayesian spatial model; (2) via post-Bayesian regression. 1701 cases were included. Bayesian smoothed maps of relative risk at small area resolution matched closely to our previous analysis at a larger area resolution. Cluster analysis identified two areas of significant low risk. These areas did not correlate with population density or social deprivation indices. Two areas showing low frequency of ALS have been identified in the Republic of Ireland. These areas do not correlate with population density or residential area social deprivation, indicating that other reasons, such as genetic admixture may account for the observed findings. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

GIS Database and Google Map of the Population at Risk of Cholangiocarcinoma in Mueang Yang District, Nakhon Ratchasima Province of Thailand.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaewpitoon, Soraya J; Rujirakul, Ratana; Joosiri, Apinya; Jantakate, Sirinun; Sangkudloa, Amnat; Kaewthani, Sarochinee; Chimplee, Kanokporn; Khemplila, Kritsakorn; Kaewpitoon, Natthawut

2016-01-01

Cholangiocarcinoma (CCA) is a serious problem in Thailand, particularly in the northeastern and northern regions. Database of population at risk are need required for monitoring, surveillance, home health care, and home visit. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a geographic information system (GIS) database and Google map of the population at risk of CCA in Mueang Yang district, Nakhon Ratchasima province, northeastern Thailand during June to October 2015. Populations at risk were screened using the Korat CCA verbal screening test (KCVST). Software included Microsoft Excel, ArcGIS, and Google Maps. The secondary data included the point of villages, sub-district boundaries, district boundaries, point of hospital in Mueang Yang district, used for created the spatial databese. The populations at risk for CCA and opisthorchiasis were used to create an arttribute database. Data were tranfered to WGS84 UTM ZONE 48. After the conversion, all of the data were imported into Google Earth using online web pages www.earthpoint.us. Some 222 from a 4,800 population at risk for CCA constituted a high risk group. Geo-visual display available at following www.google.com/maps/d/u/0/ edit?mid=zPxtcHv_iDLo.kvPpxl5mAs90 and hl=th. Geo-visual display 5 layers including: layer 1, village location and number of the population at risk for CCA; layer 2, sub-district health promotion hospital in Mueang Yang district and number of opisthorchiasis; layer 3, sub-district district and the number of population at risk for CCA; layer 4, district hospital and the number of population at risk for CCA and number of opisthorchiasis; and layer 5, district and the number of population at risk for CCA and number of opisthorchiasis. This GIS database and Google map production process is suitable for further monitoring, surveillance, and home health care for CCA sufferers.

[New risks of addiction for new populations: the example of hackers].

Science.gov (United States)

Tisserand, I N

2000-10-01

Our purpose was to examine recent social and technical habits related to high-tech environments. Our goal was to show that the prevention of risk behaviors due to training in data processing, requires an interdisciplinary approach where medical anthropology could benefit from and exchange of complementary information sources (particularly from psychiatrics and psychoanalysis). We used this approach to search for solutions regarding new kinds of addiction. When identifying pathological conditions and proposing appropriate care, these solutions must take into consideration the progressive loss of human nature in data processing environments and the very important and highly sophisticated relationship established between the human being and the computer. We looked at the hacker population as a modern tribe and marginal group. Our analysis led to a better understanding of this kind of artificial culture, sometimes called a "high-tech" or "cyber" culture. The hacker population is integrating new rituals, languages and special rhythms which induce addictions. We show how high-tech environments operating in e-time and e-life induce addictions. This work illustrates a classical anthropological approach to the question (ethnological fields, interviews, literature analysis). The major challenge is to explain how high-tech environments present high risks for dependency in the hacker population and other, unwarned, computer (ab)users.

Individual Breast Cancer risk assessment in Underserved Populations: Integrating empirical Bioethics and Health Disparities Research

Science.gov (United States)

Anderson, Emily E.; Hoskins, Kent

2013-01-01

Research suggests that individual breast cancer risk assessment may improve adherence to recommended screening and prevention guidelines, thereby decreasing morbidity and mortality. Further research on the use of risk assessment models in underserved minority populations is critical to informing national public health efforts to eliminate breast cancer disparities. However, implementing individual breast cancer risk assessment in underserved patient populations raises particular ethical issues that require further examination. After reviewing these issues, we will discuss how empirical bioethics research can be integrated with health disparities research to inform the translation of research findings. Our in-progress National Cancer Institute (NCI) funded study, How Do Underserved Minority Women Think About Breast Cancer?, conducted in the context of a larger study on individual breast cancer risk assessment, is presented as a model. PMID:23124498

Natural hazard risk perception of Italian population: case studies along national territory.

Science.gov (United States)

Gravina, Teresita; Tupputi Schinosa, Francesca De Luca; Zuddas, Isabella; Preto, Mattia; Marengo, Angelo; Esposito, Alessandro; Figliozzi, Emanuele; Rapinatore, Matteo

2015-04-01

Risk perception is judgment that people make about the characteristics and severity of risks, in last few years risk perception studies focused on provide cognitive elements to communication experts responsible in order to design citizenship information and awareness appropriate strategies. Several authors in order to determine natural hazards risk (Seismic, landslides, cyclones, flood, Volcanic) perception used questionnaires as tool for providing reliable quantitative data and permitting comparison the results with those of similar surveys. In Italy, risk perception studies based on surveys, were also carried out in order to investigate on national importance Natural risk, in particular on Somma-Vesuvio and Phlegrean Fields volcanic Risks, but lacked risk perception studies on local situation distributed on whole national territory. National importance natural hazard were frequently reported by national mass media and there were debate about emergencies civil protection plans, otherwise could be difficult to obtain information on bonded and regional nature natural hazard which were diffuses along National territory. In fact, Italian peninsula was a younger geological area subjected to endogenous phenomena (volcanoes, earthquake) and exogenous phenomena which determine land evolution and natural hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole) for population. For this reason we decided to investigate on natural risks perception in different Italian place were natural hazard were taken place but not reported from mass media, as were only local relevant or historical event. We carried out surveys in different Italian place interested by different types of natural Hazard (landslide, coastal erosion, hydrogeological instability, sinkhole, volcanic phenomena and earthquake) and compared results, in order to understand population perception level, awareness and civil protection exercises preparation. Our findings support that risks

A community based study of NCD risk factors among adult population in Dehradun, India

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Himanshu Agarwal

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Background: A Non-Communicable disease (NCD is one which is non-infectious and non-transmissible among people. NCDs account for leading causes of death and disease burden worldwide. To decrease the burden of NCDs experts stress on the importance of prevention and control with respect to modifiable risk factors. The World Health Organization's World Health Report 2002 identified tobacco use, alcohol consumption, overweight, physical inactivity, high blood pressure and high cholesterol as the most important risk factors for NCDs.(1  Aims & Objectives: 1. To know the prevalence of risk factors leading to NCDs in the study population. 2. To know the socio-demographic correlates associated with risk factors of NCDs. 3. To suggest appropriate recommendations regarding modifiable risk factors of NCDs in study population. Material & Methods: A Cross-sectional study, Community-based study among 18+ population in field practice areas of Community Medicine Department, SGRRIM&HS, Dehradun. Sample Size: 300 each in urban and rural, total 60. Results: The prevalence of Smoking was 11.3%, Smokeless tobacco use 10.5%, Alcohol use 13.2%, Unhealthy diet 99.5%, Low physical activity 0.8%, High BMI (≥ 25 kg/m2 51.2%, above normal waist-hip ratio 57.0%, Raised blood pressure 58.5% and raised blood sugar 25.2%. Conclusion: Smoking is significantly associated with age, sex and occupation. Raised blood pressure is significantly associated with age, sex and social class.

Life Expectancy in Police Officers: A Comparison with the U.S. General Population

Science.gov (United States)

Violanti, John M.; Hartley, Tara A.; Gu, Ja K.; Fekedulegn, Desta; Andrew, Michael E.; Burchfiel, Cecil M.

2016-01-01

Previous epidemiological research indicates that police officers have an elevated risk of death relative to the general population overall and for several specific causes. Despite the increased risk for mortality found in previous research, controversy still exists over the life expectancy of police officers. The goal of the present study was to compare life expectancy of male police officers from Buffalo New York with the U.S. general male population utilizing an abridged life table method. On average, the life expectancy of Buffalo police officers in our sample was significantly lower than the U.S. population (mean difference in life expectancy =21.9 years; 95% CI: 14.5-29.3; ppolice officers was shorter and differences were more pronounced in younger age categories. Additionally, police officers had a significantly higher average probability of death than did males in the general population (mean difference= 0.40; 95% CI: 0.26,-0.54; ppolice officers was 21 times larger than that of the general population (Buffalo male officers vs. U.S. males = 21.7, 95% CI: 5.8-37.7). Possible reasons for shorter life expectancy among police are discussed, including stress, shift work, obesity, and hazardous environmental work exposures. PMID:24707585

Risk perception among Brazilian individuals with high risk for colorectal cancer and colonoscopy

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Santos Erika M

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Risk perception is considered a motivating factor for adopting preventive behaviors. This study aimed to verify the demographic characteristics and cancer family history that are predictors of risk perception and to verify if risk perception is a predictor of colonoscopy adherence. Methods Individuals with a family colorectal cancer history as indicated by a proband with cancer were interviewed by telephone. They responded to a questionnaire covering demographic characteristics, colonoscopy history and four questions on risk perception. Tests of multiple linear regression and logistic regression were used to identify associations between dependent and independent variables. Results The 117 participants belonged to 62 families and had a mean age of 45.2 years. The majority of these individuals were female (74.4% and from families who met the Amsterdam Criteria (54.7%. The average risk perception was 47.6%, with a median of 50%. The average population perception of individual risk was 55.4%, with a median of 50%. Variables associated with a higher risk perception were age, gender, religion, school level, income, and death of a family member. The variable predicting colonoscopy was receiving medical information regarding risk (odds ratio OR 8.40. Conclusions We found that family cancer history characteristics (number of relatives with cancer, risk classification are associated with adequate risk perception. Risk perception does not predict colonoscopy in this sample. The only variable that predicted colonoscopy was receiving medical information recommending screening.

First Steps to School Readiness: South Carolina's Response to At-Risk Early Childhood Population.

Science.gov (United States)

Buford, Rhonda; Stegelin, Dolores A.

2003-01-01

Describes South Carolina's new state early childhood program, First Steps to School Readiness. Includes a profile of the state's at-risk child population, noting poverty and education risk indicators, and describing key program components. The article discusses program oversight, local program partnerships, program funding mechanisms, and local…

Prenatal screening for psychosocial risks in a high risk-population in Peru using the KINDEX interview.

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Spyridou, Andria; Schauer, Maggie; Ruf-Leuschner, Martina

2016-01-22

Prenatal stress and other prenatal risk factors (e.g. intimate partner violence) have a negative impact on mother's health, fetal development as well as enduring adverse effects on the neuro-cognitive, behavioral and physical health of the child. Mothers of low socio-economic status and especially those living in crime-ridden areas are even more exposed to a host of risk factors. Societies of extreme violence, poverty and inequalities, often present difficulties to provide adequate mental health care to the most needed populations. The KINDEX, a brief standardized instrument that assesses 11 different risk factors was used by midwives to identify pregnant women at-risk, in a suburban area with one of the highest levels of domestic violence in Lima. The instrument was designed to be used by medical staff to identify high-risk child-bearing women and, based on the results, to refer them to the adequate psychological or social support providers. The aim of this study is to assess the feasibility of psychosocial screening using the KINDEX in a Latin American Country for the first time, and to explore the relationship of the KINDEX with thee major risk areas, maternal psychopathology, perceived stress and traumatic experiences. The study was conducted in cooperation with the gynecological department of a general hospital in a suburban area of Lima. Nine midwives conducted interviews using the KINDEX of ninety-five pregnant women attending the gynecological unit of the hospital. From these, forty pregnant women were re-interviewed by a clinical psychologist using established instruments in order to assess the feasibility of the prenatal assessment in public health settings and the relationship of the KINDEX with maternal perceived stress, psychopathology symptoms and trauma load during pregnancy. We found high rates of risk factors in the examined pregnant women comparable with those found in the general population. Significant correlations were found between the KINDEX

Population risk perceptions of global warming in Australia.

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Agho, Kingsley; Stevens, Garry; Taylor, Mel; Barr, Margo; Raphael, Beverley

2010-11-01

According to the World Health Organisation (WHO), global warming has the potential to dramatically disrupt some of life's essential requirements for health, water, air and food. Understanding how Australians perceive the risk of global warming is essential for climate change policy and planning. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of, and socio-demographic factors associated with, high levels of perceived likelihood that global warming would worsen, concern for self and family and reported behaviour changes. A module of questions on global warming was incorporated into the New South Wales Population Health Survey in the second quarter of 2007. This Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) was completed by a representative sample of 2004 adults. The weighted sample was comparable to the Australian population. Bivariate and multivariate statistical analyses were conducted to examine the socio-demographic and general health factors. Overall 62.1% perceived that global warming was likely to worsen; 56.3% were very or extremely concerned that they or their family would be directly affected by global warming; and 77.6% stated that they had made some level of change to the way they lived their lives, because of the possibility of global warming. After controlling for confounding factors, multivariate analyses revealed that those with high levels of psychological distress were 2.17 (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR)=2.17; CI: 1.16-4.03; P=0.015) times more likely to be concerned about global warming than those with low psychological distress levels. Those with a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in urban areas were significantly more likely to think that global warming would worsen compared to those without a University degree or equivalent and those who lived in the rural areas. Females were significantly (AOR=1.69; CI: 1.23-2.33; P=0.001) more likely to report they had made changes to the way they lived their lives due to the risk of

Suicide and Suicide Risk in Lesbian, Gay, Bisexual, and Transgender Populations: Review and Recommendations

Science.gov (United States)

Haas, Ann P.; Eliason, Mickey; Mays, Vickie M.; Mathy, Robin M.; Cochran, Susan D.; D'Augelli, Anthony R.; Silverman, Morton M.; Fisher, Prudence W.; Hughes, Tonda; Rosario, Margaret; Russell, Stephen T.; Malley, Effie; Reed, Jerry; Litts, David A.; Haller, Ellen; Sell, Randall L.; Remafedi, Gary; Bradford, Judith; Beautrais, Annette L.; Brown, Gregory K.; Diamond, Gary M.; Friedman, Mark S.; Garofalo, Robert; Turner, Mason S.; Hollibaugh, Amber; Clayton, Paula J.

2011-01-01

Despite strong indications of elevated risk of suicidal behavior in lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender people, limited attention has been given to research, interventions or suicide prevention programs targeting these populations. This article is a culmination of a three-year effort by an expert panel to address the need for better understanding of suicidal behavior and suicide risk in sexual minority populations, and stimulate the development of needed prevention strategies, interventions and policy changes. This article summarizes existing research findings, and makes recommendations for addressing knowledge gaps and applying current knowledge to relevant areas of suicide prevention practice. PMID:21213174

Pregnancy exposures and risk of childhood asthma admission in a population birth cohort.

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Algert, Charles S; Bowen, Jennifer R; Lain, Samantha L; Allen, Hugh D; Vivian-Taylor, Josephine M; Roberts, Christine L

2011-12-01

There is increasing interest in the potential for in utero exposures to affect the risk of asthma. We used population data to explore the associations between perinatal conditions and the risk of hospital admission with asthma between the 2nd and 5th birthday. The study population was 240,511 singleton infants born during 2001-2003. Birth records and longitudinally linked hospital admissions were used to identify asthma admissions and to model potential risk factors. A total of 7245 children (3.0%) had one or more childhood admissions with asthma. In utero infectious exposures associated with childhood asthma were maternal antenatal admission with a urinary tract infection (UTI) [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) = 1.49, 95% confidence interval (1.23-1.79)] and pre-term pre-labor rupture of membranes (PROM) [aOR = 1.23 (1.04-1.45)]. There was no evidence that gestational age at time of first antenatal UTI admission (UTI and PROM carry an increased risk of childhood asthma admission, this suggests that the immune system response generally is the relevant factor rather than a specific organism. The season-associated risk is consistent with early pregnancy exposures such as the winter flu season or low vitamin D. © 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Association Between Educational Level and Risk of Cancer in HIV-infected Individuals and the Background Population: Population-based Cohort Study 1995-2011.

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Legarth, Rebecca; Omland, Lars H; Dalton, Susanne O; Kronborg, Gitte; Larsen, Carsten S; Pedersen, Court; Pedersen, Gitte; Gerstoft, Jan; Obel, Niels

2015-11-15

Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals have increased risk of cancer. To our knowledge, no previous study has examined the impact of socioeconomic position on risk and prognosis of cancer in HIV infection. Population-based cohort-study, including HIV-infected individuals diagnosed (without intravenous drug abuse or hepatitis C infection) (n = 3205), and a background population cohort matched by age, gender, and country of birth (n = 22 435) were analyzed. Educational level (low or high) and cancer events were identified in Danish national registers. Cumulative incidences, incidence rate ratios (IRRs), and survival using Kaplan-Meier methods were estimated. Low educational level was associated with increased risk of cancer among HIV-infected individuals compared to population controls: all (adjusted-IRRs: 1.4 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.1-1.7] vs 1.1 [95% CI, .9-1.2]), tobacco- and alcohol-related (2.1 [95% CI, 1.3-3.4] vs 1.3 [95% CI, 1.1-1.6]), and other (1.7 [95% CI, 1.1-2.8] vs 0.9 [95% CI, .7-1.0]). Educational level was not associated with infection-related or ill-defined cancers. One-year-survival was not associated with educational level, but HIV-infected individuals with low educational level had lower 5-year-survival following infection-related and ill-defined cancers. Education is associated with risk and prognosis of some cancers in HIV infection, and diverges from what is observed in the background population. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

Validation of a risk prediction model for Barrett’s esophagus in an Australian population

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Ireland CJ

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Colin J Ireland,1 Andrea L Gordon,2 Sarah K Thompson,3 David I Watson,4 David C Whiteman,5 Richard L Reed,6 Adrian Esterman1,7 1School of Nursing and Midwifery, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 2School of Pharmacy and Medical Science, Division of Health Sciences, University of South Australia, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 3Discipline of Surgery, University of Adelaide, Adelaide, SA, Australia; 4Department of Surgery, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 5Population Health Department, QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute, Herston, QLD, Australia; 6Discipline of General Practice, Flinders University, Bedford Park, SA, Australia; 7Australian Institute of Tropical Health and Medicine, James Cook University, Cairns, QLD, Australia Background: Esophageal adenocarcinoma is a disease that has a high mortality rate, the only known precursor being Barrett’s esophagus (BE. While screening for BE is not cost-effective at the population level, targeted screening might be beneficial. We have developed a risk prediction model to identify people with BE, and here we present the external validation of this model. Materials and methods: A cohort study was undertaken to validate a risk prediction model for BE. Individuals with endoscopy and histopathology proven BE completed a questionnaire containing variables previously identified as risk factors for this condition. Their responses were combined with data from a population sample for analysis. Risk scores were derived for each participant. Overall performance of the risk prediction model in terms of calibration and discrimination was assessed. Results: Scores from 95 individuals with BE and 636 individuals from the general population were analyzed. The Brier score was 0.118, suggesting reasonable overall performance. The area under the receiver operating characteristic was 0.83 (95% CI 0.78–0.87. The Hosmer–Lemeshow statistic was p=0

Cancer among circumpolar populations: an emerging public health concern

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T. Kue Young

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Objectives: To determine and compare the incidence of cancer among the 8 Arctic States and their northern regions, with special focus on 3 cross-national indigenous groups – Inuit, Athabaskan Indians and Sami. Methods: Data were extracted from national and regional statistical agencies and cancer registries, with direct age-standardization of rates to the world standard population. For comparison, the “world average” rates as reported in the GLOBOCAN database were used. Findings: Age-standardized incidence rates by cancer sites were computed for the 8 Arctic States and 20 of their northern regions, averaged over the decade 2000–2009. Cancer of the lung and colon/rectum in both sexes are the commonest in most populations. We combined the Inuit from Alaska, Northwest Territories, Nunavut and Greenland into a “Circumpolar Inuit” group and tracked cancer trends over four 5-year periods from 1989 to 2008. There has been marked increase in lung, colorectal and female breast cancers, while cervical cancer has declined. Compared to the GLOBOCAN world average, Inuit are at extreme high risk for lung and colorectal cancer, and also certain rare cancers such as nasopharyngeal cancer. Athabaskans (from Alaska and Northwest Territories share some similarities with the Inuit but they are at higher risk for prostate and breast cancer relative to the world average. Among the Sami, published data from 3 cohorts in Norway, Sweden and Finland show generally lower risk of cancer than non-Sami. Conclusions: Cancer among certain indigenous people in the Arctic is an increasing public health concern, especially lung and colorectal cancer.

Association of Htra1 gene polymorphisms with the risk of developing AMD in Iranian population.

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Askari, Mohammad; Nikpoor, Amin Reza; Gorjipour, Fazel; Mazidi, Mohsen; Sanati, Mohammad Hosein; Aryan, Hajar; Irani, Alireza; Ghasemi Falavarjani, Khalil; Nazari, Hossein; Mousavizadeh, Kazem

2015-10-01

Half of the cases of vision loss in people under 60 years of age have been attributed to age-related macular degeneration (AMD). This is a multifactorial disease with late onset. It has been demonstrated that many different genetic loci are implicated in the risk of developing AMD in different populations. In the current study, we investigated the association of high-temperature ‎requirement A-1 (HTRA1) gene polymorphisms with the risk of developing AMD in the Iranian population. Genomic DNA samples were extracted from 120 patients with AMD and 120 healthy age- and sex-matched controls. A 385 base-pair fragment of the HTRA1 gene promoter region was amplified using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR) technique and sequenced. The frequencies of the alleles were calculated and statistical analysis was performed using SPSS software. Our study demonstrated that the rate of polymorphisms rs11200638 -625 G>A and rs2672598 -487T>C were significantly greater in AMD patients than in healthy controls from the Iranian population. The results of our study indicate that HTRA1 gene promoter region polymorphisms are associated with the risk of developing AMD in the Iranian population.

Dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk in a Korean population

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Yoon; Lee, Jeonghee; Oh, Jae Hwan; Shin, Aesun; Kim, Jeongseon

2016-01-01

Abstract Colorectal cancer (CRC) has been recognized as one of the major malignancies in Korea. Analyses of dietary patterns can provide insight into the complex interactions of foods, nutrients, and biologically active components within a diet, which vary among populations. We aimed to investigate the associations between dietary patterns and colorectal cancer risk in Koreans. In a study of 923 cases and 1846 controls, principal component analysis was used to identify dietary patterns based on 33 predefined food groups using a 106-item semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire (SQFFQ). The associations between dietary patterns and CRC risk were assessed using binary and polytomous logistic regression models to estimate odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Three dietary patterns (traditional, Westernized, and prudent) were derived. The proportion of total variation explained by 3 patterns was 24.2% for men and 25.3% for women. The traditional and prudent patterns were inversely associated with CRC risk [OR and 95% CI for the highest intake tertile of pattern score vs. the lowest = 0.35 (0.27–0.46) and 0.37 (0.28–0.48), respectively], whereas the Westernized pattern showed a positive association, especially among women [OR = 2.13 (1.35–3.34) for the highest tertile vs. the lowest]. A decrease in CRC risk among those with the highest intake of the prudent pattern was observed in all anatomical subsites in both men [OR = 0.36 (0.19–0.68) for proximal colon; 0.21 (0.12–0.36) for distal colon; 0.28 (0.18–0.44) for rectum] and women [OR = 0.28 (0.11–0.71); 0.27 (0.13–0.54); 0.45 (0.25–0.83)]. Our results indicate that individuals who prefer the Westernized dietary pattern should be made aware of their increased CRC risk. The traditional dietary pattern and the prudent pattern, which are rich in fruits and dairy products, are recommended for the Korean population to prevent CRC. PMID:27336862

Recurrence risk of low Apgar score among term singletons: a population-based cohort study

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ensing, Sabine; Schaaf, Jelle M.; Abu-Hanna, Ameen; Mol, Ben W. J.; Ravelli, Anita C. J.

2014-01-01

To examine the risk of recurrence of low Apgar score in a subsequent term singleton pregnancy. Population-based cohort study. The Netherlands. A total of 190,725 women with two subsequent singleton term live births between 1999 and 2007. We calculated the recurrence risk of low Apgar score after

A review of radiation risk estimates

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1991-06-01

Three authoritative reports (UNSCEAR-1988, BEIR-V-1990, and ICRP-1990 Recommendations) on risk estimates have been reviewed and compared to previous risk estimates published by the same organizations. The ICRP now uses the term 'probability' in place of the term 'risk'. For fatal cancers, the new ICRP probability estimates are 5.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 4.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For serious hereditary effects summarized over all generations, the ICRP probability coefficients are 1.0 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of all ages and 0.6 x 10 -2 Sv -1 for a population of working age. For prenatal irradiation, at 8 - 15 weeks after conception, there may be a decrease of 30 I.Q. points per Sv and a risk of cancer which may lie in the range of 2 to 10 x 10 -2 Sv -1 . Based mainly on the new probability estimates the ICRP recommends a limit on effective dose of 20 mSv per year, averaged over 5 years (100 mSv in 5 years) with the further provision that the effective dose should not exceed 50 mSv in any single year. For public exposure the ICRP recommends an annual limit on effective dose of 1 mSv. However, in special circumstances, a higher value of effective dose could be allowed in a single year provided that the average over 5 five years does not exceed 1 mSv per year. Once pregnancy has been declared, the conceptus should be protected by applying a supplementary equivalent dose limit to the surface of the woman's abdomen of 2 mSv for the remainder of the pregnancy and by limiting intakes of radionuclides to about 1/20 of the annual limit on intake. A brief survey of epidemiological studies of workers and the risks from radon and thoron progeny is also included. (110 refs, 29 tabs., 10 figs.)

Migraine and risk of cardiovascular diseases: Danish population based matched cohort study.

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Adelborg, Kasper; Szépligeti, Szimonetta Komjáthiné; Holland-Bill, Louise; Ehrenstein, Vera; Horváth-Puhó, Erzsébet; Henderson, Victor W; Sørensen, Henrik Toft

2018-01-31

To examine the risks of myocardial infarction, stroke (ischaemic and haemorrhagic), peripheral artery disease, venous thromboembolism, atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and heart failure in patients with migraine and in a general population comparison cohort. Nationwide, population based cohort study. All Danish hospitals and hospital outpatient clinics from 1995 to 2013. 51 032 patients with migraine and 510 320 people from the general population matched on age, sex, and calendar year. Comorbidity adjusted hazard ratios of cardiovascular outcomes based on Cox regression analysis. Higher absolute risks were observed among patients with incident migraine than in the general population across most outcomes and follow-up periods. After 19 years of follow-up, the cumulative incidences per 1000 people for the migraine cohort compared with the general population were 25 v 17 for myocardial infarction, 45 v 25 for ischaemic stroke, 11 v 6 for haemorrhagic stroke, 13 v 11 for peripheral artery disease, 27 v 18 for venous thromboembolism, 47 v 34 for atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter, and 19 v 18 for heart failure. Correspondingly, migraine was positively associated with myocardial infarction (adjusted hazard ratio 1.49, 95% confidence interval 1.36 to 1.64), ischaemic stroke (2.26, 2.11 to 2.41), and haemorrhagic stroke (1.94, 1.68 to 2.23), as well as venous thromboembolism (1.59, 1.45 to 1.74) and atrial fibrillation or atrial flutter (1.25, 1.16 to 1.36). No meaningful association was found with peripheral artery disease (adjusted hazard ratio 1.12, 0.96 to 1.30) or heart failure (1.04, 0.93 to 1.16). The associations, particularly for stroke outcomes, were stronger during the short term (0-1 years) after diagnosis than the long term (up to 19 years), in patients with aura than in those without aura, and in women than in men. In a subcohort of patients, the associations persisted after additional multivariable adjustment for body mass index and smoking

A stereotaxic, population-averaged T1w ovine brain atlas including cerebral morphology and tissue volumes

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Björn eNitzsche

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Standard stereotaxic reference systems play a key role in human brain studies. Stereotaxic coordinate systems have also been developed for experimental animals including non-human primates, dogs and rodents. However, they are lacking for other species being relevant in experimental neuroscience including sheep. Here, we present a spatial, unbiased ovine brain template with tissue probability maps (TPM that offer a detailed stereotaxic reference frame for anatomical features and localization of brain areas, thereby enabling inter-individual and cross-study comparability. Three-dimensional data sets from healthy adult Merino sheep (Ovis orientalis aries, 12 ewes and 26 neutered rams were acquired on a 1.5T Philips MRI using a T1w sequence. Data were averaged by linear and non-linear registration algorithms. Moreover, animals were subjected to detailed brain volume analysis including examinations with respect to body weight, age and sex. The created T1w brain template provides an appropriate population-averaged ovine brain anatomy in a spatial standard coordinate system. Additionally, TPM for gray (GM and white (WM matter as well as cerebrospinal fluid (CSF classification enabled automatic prior-based tissue segmentation using statistical parametric mapping (SPM. Overall, a positive correlation of GM volume and body weight explained about 15% of the variance of GM while a positive correlation between WM and age was found. Absolute tissue volume differences were not detected, indeed ewes showed significantly more GM per bodyweight as compared to neutered rams. The created framework including spatial brain template and TPM represent a useful tool for unbiased automatic image preprocessing and morphological characterization in sheep. Therefore, the reported results may serve as a starting point for further experimental and/or translational research aiming at in vivo analysis in this species.

Implications of supermarket access, neighbourhood walkability and poverty rates for diabetes risk in an employee population.