Autocrine and Paracrine Mechanisms Promoting Chemoresistance in Cholangiocarcinoma

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Massimiliano Cadamuro

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Resistance to conventional chemotherapeutic agents, a typical feature of cholangiocarcinoma, prevents the efficacy of the therapeutic arsenal usually used to combat malignancy in humans. Mechanisms of chemoresistance by neoplastic cholangiocytes include evasion of drug-induced apoptosis mediated by autocrine and paracrine cues released in the tumor microenvironment. Here, recent evidence regarding molecular mechanisms of chemoresistance is reviewed, as well as associations between well-developed chemoresistance and activation of the cancer stem cell compartment. It is concluded that improved understanding of the complex interplay between apoptosis signaling and the promotion of cell survival represent potentially productive areas for active investigation, with the ultimate aim of encouraging future studies to unveil new, effective strategies able to overcome current limitations on treatment.

Autocrine-paracrine regulation of the mammary gland.

Science.gov (United States)

Weaver, S R; Hernandez, L L

2016-01-01

The mammary gland has a remarkable capacity for regulation at a local level, particularly with respect to its main function: milk secretion. Regulation of milk synthesis has significant effects on animal and human health, at the level of both the mother and the neonate. Control by the mammary gland of its essential function, milk synthesis, is an evolutionary necessity and is therefore tightly regulated at a local level. For at least the last 60 yr, researchers have been interested in elucidating the mechanisms underpinning the mammary gland's ability to self-regulate, largely without the influence from systemic hormones or signals. By the 1960s, scientists realized the importance of milk removal in the capacity of the gland to produce milk and that the dynamics of this removal, including emptying of the alveolar spaces and frequency of milking, were controlled locally as opposed to traditional systemic hormonal regulation. Using both in vitro systems and various mammalian species, including goats, marsupials, humans, and dairy cows, it has been demonstrated that the mammary gland is largely self-regulating in its capacity to support the young, which is the evolutionary basis for milk production. Local control occurs at the level of the mammary epithelial cell through pressure and stretching negative-feedback mechanisms, and also in an autocrine fashion through bioactive factors within the milk which act as inhibitors, regulating milk secretion within the alveoli themselves. It is only within the last 20 to 30 yr that potential candidates for these bioactive factors have been examined at a molecular level. Several, including parathyroid hormone-related protein, growth factors (transforming growth factor, insulin-like growth factor, epidermal growth factor), and serotonin, are synthesized within and act upon the gland and possess dynamic receptor activity resulting in diverse effects on growth, calcium homeostasis, and milk composition. This review will focus on the

Interferon beta 1, an intermediate in the tumor necrosis factor alpha- induced increased MHC class I expression and an autocrine regulator of the constitutive MHC class I expression

OpenAIRE

1987-01-01

In conclusion, our observations indicate that the constitutive MHC class I expression is regulated by autocrine production of IFN-beta 1. TNF-alpha acts as an enhancer of the autocrine production of IFN-beta 1, and consequently as an enhancer of the MHC class I expression and viral protection.

Dictyostelium cells bind a secreted autocrine factor that represses cell proliferation

OpenAIRE

Choe, Jonathan M; Bakthavatsalam, Deenadayalan; Phillips, Jonathan E; Gomer, Richard H

2009-01-01

Abstract Background Dictyostelium cells secrete the proteins AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking either AprA or CfaD proliferate faster than wild type, while AprA or CfaD overexpressor cells proliferate slowly, indicating that AprA and CfaD are autocrine factors that repress proliferation. CfaD interacts with AprA and requires the presence of AprA to slow proliferation. To determine if CfaD is necessary for the ability of AprA to slow proliferation, whether AprA binds to cells, and if so whether the...

Eosinophils as a novel cell source of prostaglandin D2: autocrine role in allergic inflammation

Science.gov (United States)

Luna-Gomes, Tatiana; Magalhães, Kelly G; Mesquita-Santos, Fabio P.; Bakker-Abreu, Ilka; Samico, Rafaela F.; Molinaro, Raphael; Calheiros, Andrea S.; Diaz, Bruno L.; Bozza, Patrícia T.

2011-01-01

Prostaglandin (PG)D2 is a key mediator of allergic inflammatory diseases that is mainly synthesized by mast cells, which constitutively express high levels of the terminal enzyme involved in PGD2 synthesis, the hematopoietic PGD synthase (H-PGDS). Here, we investigated whether eosinophils are also able to synthesize, and therefore, supply biologically active PGD2. PGD2 synthesis was evaluated within human blood eosinophils, in vitro-differentiated mouse eosinophils, and eosinophils infiltrating inflammatory site of mouse allergic reaction. Biological function of eosinophil-derived PGD2 was studied by employing inhibitors of synthesis and activity. Constitutive expression of H-PGDS was found within non-stimulated human circulating eosinophils. Acute stimulation of human eosinophils with A23187 (0.1 – 5 μM) evoked PGD2 synthesis, which was located at the nuclear envelope and was inhibited by pre-treatment with HQL-79 (10 μM), a specific H-PGDS inhibitor. Pre-stimulation of human eosinophils with arachidonic acid (AA; 10 μM) or human eotaxin (6 nM) also enhanced HQL-79-sensitive PGD2 synthesis, which, by acting on membrane-expressed specific receptors (DP1 and DP2), displayed an autocrine/paracrine ability to trigger leukotriene (LT)C4 synthesis and lipid body biogenesis, hallmark events of eosinophil activation. In vitro-differentiated mouse eosinophils also synthesized paracrine/autocrine active PGD2 in response to AA stimulation. In vivo, at late time point of the allergic reaction, infiltrating eosinophils found at the inflammatory site appeared as an auxiliary PGD2-synthesizing cell population. Our findings reveal that eosinophils are indeed able to synthesize and secrete PGD2, hence representing during allergic inflammation an extra cell source of PGD2, which functions as an autocrine signal for eosinophil activation. PMID:22102725

The crystal structure of a multifunctional protein: Phosphoglucose isomerase/autocrine motility factor/neuroleukin

OpenAIRE

Sun, Yuh-Ju; Chou, Chia-Cheng; Chen, Wei-Shone; Wu, Rong-Tsun; Meng, Menghsiao; Hsiao, Chwan-Deng

1999-01-01

Phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI) plays a central role in both the glycolysis and the gluconeogenesis pathways. We present here the complete crystal structure of PGI from Bacillus stearothermophilus at 2.3-Å resolution. We show that PGI has cell-motility-stimulating activity on mouse colon cancer cells similar to that of endogenous autocrine motility factor (AMF). PGI can also enhance neurite outgrowth on neuronal progenitor cells similar to that observed for neuroleukin. The results confirm tha...

Autocrine effects of transgenic resistin reduce palmitate and glucose oxidation in brown adipose tissue

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Pravenec, Michal; Mlejnek, Petr; Zídek, Václav; Landa, Vladimír; Šimáková, Miroslava; Šilhavý, Jan; Strnad, Hynek; Eigner, Sebastian; Eigner-Henke, Kateřina; Škop, V.; Malínská, H.; Trnovská, J.; Kazdová, L.; Drahota, Zdeněk; Mráček, Tomáš; Houštěk, Josef

2016-01-01

Roč. 48, č. 6 (2016), s. 420-427 ISSN 1094-8341 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) LL1204; GA ČR(CZ) GB14-36804G; GA MZd(CZ) NT14325 Institutional support: RVO:67985823 ; RVO:68378050 ; RVO:61389005 Keywords : brown adipose tissue * autocrine * transgenic * spontaneously hypertensive rat Subject RIV: FB - Endocrinology, Diabetology, Metabolism, Nutrition Impact factor: 3.044, year: 2016

XIAP gene expression and function is regulated by autocrine and paracrine TGF-β signaling

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Van Themsche Céline

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background X-linked inhibitor of apoptosis protein (XIAP is often overexpressed in cancer cells, where it plays a key role in survival and also promotes invasiveness. To date however, the extracellular signals and intracellular pathways regulating its expression and activity remain incompletely understood. We have previously showed that exposure to each of the three TGF-β (transforming growth factor beta isoforms upregulates XIAP protein content in endometrial carcinoma cells in vitro. In the present study, we have investigated the clinical relevance of TGF-β isoforms in endometrial tumours and the mechanisms through which TGF-β isoforms regulate XIAP content in uterine cancer cells. Methods TGF-β isoforms immunoreactivity in clinical samples from endometrial tumours was assessed using immunofluorescence. Two model cancer cell lines (KLE endometrial carcinoma cells and HeLa cervical cancer cells and pharmacological inhibitors were used to investigate the signalling pathways regulating XIAP expression and activity in response to autocrine and paracrine TGF-β in cancer cell. Results We have found immunoreactivity for each TGF-β isoform in clinical samples from endometrial tumours, localizing to both stromal and epithelial/cancer cells. Blockade of autocrine TGF-β signaling in KLE endometrial carcinoma cells and HeLa cervical cancer cells reduced endogenous XIAP mRNA and protein levels. In addition, each TGF-β isoform upregulated XIAP gene expression when given exogenously, in a Smad/NF-κB dependent manner. This resulted in increased polyubiquitination of PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homolog on chromosome ten, a newly identified substrate for XIAP E3 ligase activity, and in a XIAP-dependent decrease of PTEN protein levels. Although each TGF-β isoform decreased PTEN content in a XIAP- and a Smad-dependent manner, decrease of PTEN levels in response to only one isoform, TGF-β3, was blocked by PI3-K inhibitor LY294002. Conclusions

Interleukin 6 promotes endometrial cancer growth through an autocrine feedback loop involving ERK–NF-κB signaling pathway

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Che, Qi; Liu, Bin-Ya; Wang, Fang-Yuan; He, Yin-Yan; Lu, Wen; Liao, Yun [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shanghai First People’s Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai (China); Gu, Wei, E-mail: krisgu70@163.com [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, International Peace Maternity and Child Health Hospital Affiliated to Shanghai Jiao Tong University School of Medicine, Shanghai (China); Wan, Xiao-Ping, E-mail: wanxp@sjtu.edu.cn [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Shanghai First Maternity and Infant Hospital Affiliated to Tong Ji University, Shanghai (China)

2014-03-28

Highlights: • IL-6 could promote endometrial cancer cells proliferation. • IL-6 promotes its own production through an autocrine feedback loop. • ERK and NF-κB pathway inhibitors inhibit IL-6 production and tumor growth. • IL-6 secretion relies on the activation of ERK–NF-κB pathway axis. • An orthotopic nude endometrial carcinoma model confirms the effect of IL-6. - Abstract: Interleukin (IL)-6 as an inflammation factor, has been proved to promote cancer proliferation in several human cancers. However, its role in endometrial cancer has not been studied clearly. Previously, we demonstrated that IL-6 promoted endometrial cancer progression through local estrogen biosynthesis. In this study, we proved that IL-6 could directly stimulate endometrial cancer cells proliferation and an autocrine feedback loop increased its production even after the withdrawal of IL-6 from the medium. Next, we analyzed the mechanism underlying IL-6 production in the feedback loop and found that its production and IL-6-stimulated cell proliferation were effectively blocked by pharmacologic inhibitors of nuclear factor-kappa B (NF-κB) and extra-cellular signal-regulated kinase (ERK). Importantly, activation of ERK was upstream of the NF-κB pathways, revealing the hierarchy of this event. Finally, we used an orthotopic nude endometrial carcinoma model to confirm the effects of IL-6 on the tumor progression. Taken together, these data indicate that IL-6 promotes endometrial carcinoma growth through an expanded autocrine regulatory loop and implicate the ERK–NF-κB pathway as a critical mediator of IL-6 production, implying IL-6 to be an important therapeutic target in endometrial carcinoma.

Autocrine role of angiopoietins during megakaryocytic differentiation.

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Ernestina Saulle

Full Text Available The tyrosine kinase Tie-2 and its ligands Angiopoietins (Angs transduce critical signals for angiogenesis in endothelial cells. This receptor and Ang-1 are coexpressed in hematopoietic stem cells and in a subset of megakaryocytes, though a possible role of angiopoietins in megakaryocytic differentiation/proliferation remains to be demonstrated. To investigate a possible effect of Ang-1/Ang-2 on megakaryocytic proliferation/differentiation we have used both normal CD34(+ cells induced to megakaryocytic differentiation and the UT7 cells engineered to express the thrombopoietin receptor (TPOR, also known as c-mpl, UT7/mpl. Our results indicate that Ang-1/Ang-2 may have a role in megakaryopoiesis. Particularly, Ang-2 is predominantly produced and released by immature normal megakaryocytic cells and by undifferentiated UT7/mpl cells and slightly stimulated TPO-induced cell proliferation. Ang-1 production is markedly induced during megakaryocytic differentiation/maturation and potentiated TPO-driven megakaryocytic differentiation. Blocking endogenously released angiopoietins partially inhibited megakaryocytic differentiation, particularly for that concerns the process of polyploidization. According to these data it is suggested that an autocrine angiopoietin/Tie-2 loop controls megakaryocytic proliferation and differentiation.

Autocrine signal transmission with extracellular ligand degradation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muratov, C B; Posta, F; Shvartsman, S Y

2009-01-01

Traveling waves of cell signaling in epithelial layers orchestrate a number of important processes in developing and adult tissues. These waves can be mediated by positive feedback autocrine loops, a mode of cell signaling where binding of a diffusible extracellular ligand to a cell surface receptor can lead to further ligand release. We formulate and analyze a biophysical model that accounts for ligand-induced ligand release, extracellular ligand diffusion and ligand–receptor interaction. We focus on the case when the main mode for ligand degradation is extracellular and analyze the problem with the sharp threshold positive feedback nonlinearity. We derive expressions that link the speed of propagation and other characteristics of traveling waves to the parameters of the biophysical processes, such as diffusion rates, receptor expression level, etc. Analyzing the derived expressions we found that traveling waves in such systems can exhibit a number of unusual properties, e.g. non-monotonic dependence of the speed of propagation on ligand diffusivity. Our results for the fully developed traveling fronts can be used to analyze wave initiation from localized perturbations, a scenario that frequently arises in the in vitro models of epithelial wound healing, and guide future modeling studies of cell communication in epithelial layers

Autocrine signal transmission with extracellular ligand degradation

Science.gov (United States)

Muratov, C B; Posta, F; Shvartsman, S Y

2009-03-01

Traveling waves of cell signaling in epithelial layers orchestrate a number of important processes in developing and adult tissues. These waves can be mediated by positive feedback autocrine loops, a mode of cell signaling where binding of a diffusible extracellular ligand to a cell surface receptor can lead to further ligand release. We formulate and analyze a biophysical model that accounts for ligand-induced ligand release, extracellular ligand diffusion and ligand-receptor interaction. We focus on the case when the main mode for ligand degradation is extracellular and analyze the problem with the sharp threshold positive feedback nonlinearity. We derive expressions that link the speed of propagation and other characteristics of traveling waves to the parameters of the biophysical processes, such as diffusion rates, receptor expression level, etc. Analyzing the derived expressions we found that traveling waves in such systems can exhibit a number of unusual properties, e.g. non-monotonic dependence of the speed of propagation on ligand diffusivity. Our results for the fully developed traveling fronts can be used to analyze wave initiation from localized perturbations, a scenario that frequently arises in the in vitro models of epithelial wound healing, and guide future modeling studies of cell communication in epithelial layers.

Acetylcholine release by human colon cancer cells mediates autocrine stimulation of cell proliferation.

Science.gov (United States)

Cheng, Kunrong; Samimi, Roxana; Xie, Guofeng; Shant, Jasleen; Drachenberg, Cinthia; Wade, Mark; Davis, Richard J; Nomikos, George; Raufman, Jean-Pierre

2008-09-01

Most colon cancers overexpress M3 muscarinic receptors (M3R), and post-M3R signaling stimulates human colon cancer cell proliferation. Acetylcholine (ACh), a muscarinic receptor ligand traditionally regarded as a neurotransmitter, may be produced by nonneuronal cells. We hypothesized that ACh release by human colon cancer cells results in autocrine stimulation of proliferation. H508 human colon cancer cells, which have robust M3R expression, were used to examine effects of muscarinic receptor antagonists, acetylcholinesterase inhibitors, and choline transport inhibitors on cell proliferation. A nonselective muscarinic receptor antagonist (atropine), a selective M3R antagonist (p-fluorohexahydro-sila-difenidol hydrochloride), and a choline transport inhibitor (hemicholinum-3) all inhibited unstimulated H508 colon cancer cell proliferation by approximately 40% (P<0.005). In contrast, two acetylcholinesterase inhibitors (eserine-hemisulfate and bis-9-amino-1,2,3,4-tetrahydroacridine) increased proliferation by 2.5- and 2-fold, respectively (P<0.005). By using quantitative real-time PCR, expression of choline acetyltransferase (ChAT), a critical enzyme for ACh synthesis, was identified in H508, WiDr, and Caco-2 colon cancer cells. By using high-performance liquid chromatography-electrochemical detection, released ACh was detected in H508 and Caco-2 cell culture media. Immunohistochemistry in surgical specimens revealed weak or no cytoplasmic staining for ChAT in normal colon enterocytes (n=25) whereas half of colon cancer specimens (n=24) exhibited moderate to strong staining (P<0.005). We conclude that ACh is an autocrine growth factor in colon cancer. Mechanisms that regulate colon epithelial cell production and release of ACh warrant further investigation.

Evidence for paracrine/autocrine regulation of GLP-1-producing cells

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kappe, Camilla; Zhang, Qimin; Holst, Jens Juul

2013-01-01

Glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), secreted from gut L cells upon nutrient intake, forms the basis for novel drugs against type 2 diabetes (T2D). Secretion of GLP-1 has been suggested to be impaired in T2D and in conditions associated with hyperlipidemia and insulin resistance. Further, recent...... studies support lipotoxicity of GLP-1-producing cells in vitro. However, little is known about the regulation of L-cell viability/function, the effects of insulin signaling, or the potential effects of stable GLP-1 analogs and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 (DPP-4) inhibitors. We determined effects of insulin...... as well as possible autocrine action of GLP-1 on viability/apoptosis of GLP-1-secreting cells in the presence/absence of palmitate, while also assessing direct effects on function. The studies were performed using the GLP-1-secreting cell line GLUTag, and palmitate was used to simulate hyperlipidemia. Our...

Age-related autocrine diabetogenic effects of transgenic resistin in spontaneously hypertensive rats: gene expression profile analysis

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Pravenec, Michal; Zídek, Václav; Landa, Vladimír; Šimáková, Miroslava; Mlejnek, Petr; Šilhavý, J.; Maxová, M.; Kazdová, L.; Seidman, J. G.; Seidman, Ch. E.; Eminaga, S.; Gorham, J.; Wang, J.; Kurtz, T. W.

2011-01-01

Roč. 43, č. 7 (2011), s. 372-379 ISSN 1094-8341 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ME08006; GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0510; GA AV ČR(CZ) IAA500110805; GA MZd(CZ) NS9759 Grant - others:Fondation Leducq(FR) 06CVD03 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : transgenic rat * adipose tissue * insulin resistance * autocrine effects Subject RIV: FB - Endocrinology, Diabetology, Metabolism, Nutrition Impact factor: 2.735, year: 2011

Autocrine regulation of human urothelial cell proliferation and migration during regenerative responses in vitro

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varley, Claire; Hill, Gemma; Pellegrin, Stephanie; Shaw, Nicola J.; Selby, Peter J.; Trejdosiewicz, Ludwik K.; Southgate, Jennifer

2005-01-01

Regeneration of the urothelium is rapid and effective in order to maintain a barrier to urine following tissue injury. Whereas normal human urothelial (NHU) cells are mitotically quiescent and G0 arrested in situ, they rapidly enter the cell cycle upon seeding in primary culture and show reversible growth arrest at confluency. We have used this as a model to investigate the role of EGF receptor signaling in urothelial regeneration and wound-healing. Transcripts for HER-1, HER-2, and HER-3 were expressed by quiescent human urothelium in situ. Expression of HER-1 was upregulated in proliferating cultures, whereas HER-2 and HER-3 were more associated with a growth-arrested phenotype. NHU cells could be propagated in the absence of exogenous EGF, but autocrine signaling through HER-1 via the MAPK and PI3-kinase pathways was essential for proliferation and migration during urothelial wound repair. HB-EGF was expressed by urothelium in situ and HB-EGF, epiregulin, TGF-α, and amphiregulin were expressed by proliferating NHU cells. Urothelial wound repair in vitro was attenuated by neutralizing antibodies against HER-1 ligands, particularly amphiregulin. By contrast, the same ligands applied exogenously promoted migration, but inhibited proliferation, implying that HER-1 ligands provoke differential effects in NHU cells depending upon whether they are presented as soluble or juxtacrine ligands. We conclude that proliferation and migration during wound healing in NHU cells are mediated through an EGFR autocrine signalling loop and our results implicate amphiregulin as a key mediator

The ROCO Kinase QkgA Is Necessary for Proliferation Inhibition by Autocrine Signals in Dictyostelium discoideum▿

OpenAIRE

Phillips, Jonathan E.; Gomer, Richard H.

2010-01-01

AprA and CfaD are secreted proteins that function as autocrine signals to inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum. Cells lacking AprA or CfaD proliferate rapidly, and adding AprA or CfaD to cells slows proliferation. Cells lacking the ROCO kinase QkgA proliferate rapidly, with a doubling time 83% of that of the wild type, and overexpression of a QkgA-green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion protein slows cell proliferation. We found that qkgA− cells accumulate normal levels of ex...

Spontaneous NF-κB activation by autocrine TNFα signaling: a computational analysis.

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Jakub Pękalski

Full Text Available NF-κB is a key transcription factor that regulates innate immune response. Its activity is tightly controlled by numerous feedback loops, including two negative loops mediated by NF-κB inducible inhibitors, IκBα and A20, which assure oscillatory responses, and by positive feedback loops arising due to the paracrine and autocrine regulation via TNFα, IL-1 and other cytokines. We study the NF-κB system of interlinked negative and positive feedback loops, combining bifurcation analysis of the deterministic approximation with stochastic numerical modeling. Positive feedback assures the existence of limit cycle oscillations in unstimulated wild-type cells and introduces bistability in A20-deficient cells. We demonstrated that cells of significant autocrine potential, i.e., cells characterized by high secretion of TNFα and its receptor TNFR1, may exhibit sustained cytoplasmic-nuclear NF-κB oscillations which start spontaneously due to stochastic fluctuations. In A20-deficient cells even a small TNFα expression rate qualitatively influences system kinetics, leading to long-lasting NF-κB activation in response to a short-pulsed TNFα stimulation. As a consequence, cells with impaired A20 expression or increased TNFα secretion rate are expected to have elevated NF-κB activity even in the absence of stimulation. This may lead to chronic inflammation and promote cancer due to the persistent activation of antiapoptotic genes induced by NF-κB. There is growing evidence that A20 mutations correlate with several types of lymphomas and elevated TNFα secretion is characteristic of many cancers. Interestingly, A20 loss or dysfunction also leaves the organism vulnerable to septic shock and massive apoptosis triggered by the uncontrolled TNFα secretion, which at high levels overcomes the antiapoptotic action of NF-κB. It is thus tempting to speculate that some cancers of deregulated NF-κB signaling may be prone to the pathogen-induced apoptosis.

Formation of PI 3-kinase products in platelets by thrombin, but not collagen, is dependent on synergistic autocrine stimulation, particularly through secreted ADP.

Science.gov (United States)

Selheim, F; Idsøe, R; Fukami, M H; Holmsen, H; Vassbotn, F S

1999-10-05

Platelet activation by thrombin or collagen results in secretion and synthesis of several platelet agonists that enhance the responses to the primary agonists (autocrine stimulation). To disclose the effects of thrombin and collagen on the phosphorylation of 3-phosphoinositides per se we incubated platelets with five inhibitors of platelet autocrine stimulation (IAS) that act extracellularly. We found that IAS almost totally blocked thrombin-induced production of phosphatidylinositol 3,4-bisphosphate [PtdIns(3,4)P(2)] and phosphatidylinositol 3,4,5-trisphosphate [PtdIns(3,4,5)P(3)]. In contrast, collagen induced massive production of PtdIns(3,4)P(2) and PtdIns(3,4,5)P(3) in the presence of IAS. When testing the effect of each inhibitor individually we found the strongest inhibition of thrombin-induced PtdIns(3,4)P(2) production with the ADP scavenger system CP/CPK. Furthermore, we found a strong synergistic effect between exogenously added ADP and thrombin on production of PtdIns(3,4)P(2). In contrast to the results from 3-phosphorylated phosphoinositides, CP/CPK had little effect on thrombin-induced protein tyrosine phosphorylation. Our results show the importance of autocrine stimulation in thrombin-induced accumulation of 3-phosphorylated phosphoinositides and raise the question as to whether thrombin by itself is capable of inducing PI 3-K activation. In marked contrast to thrombin, collagen per se appears to be able to trigger increased production of PtdIns(3,4)P(2) and PtdIns(3,4,5)P(3). Copyright 1999 Academic Press.

Theileria parva infection induces autocrine growth of bovine lymphocytes.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobbelaere, D A; Coquerelle, T M; Roditi, I J; Eichhorn, M; Williams, R O

1988-01-01

Bovine lymphocytes infected with the parasite Theileria parva continuously secrete a growth factor that is essential for their proliferation in vitro and also constitutively express interleukin 2 receptors on their surface. Dilution of the secreted growth factor, caused by culturing cells at low density, results in retardation of culture growth. Human recombinant interleukin 2, however, effectively substitutes for the diluted growth factor by restoring normal growth rates and also allows Theileria-infected cells to be grown at low density without the use of feeder layers. Secretion of the growth factor and expression of the interleukin 2 receptor depend on the presence of the parasite in the cytoplasm of the host cell. Elimination of the parasite from the cell cytoplasm by the specific antitheilerial drug BW 720c results in the arrest of growth factor secretion and the disappearance of interleukin 2 receptors from the cell surface. This is accompanied by growth arrest and reversion of the infected cells to the morphology of resting lymphocytes. We propose that the continuous proliferation of infected cells in vitro is mediated by autocrine receptor activation. Images PMID:3133661

PGE2 maintains self-renewal of human adult stem cells via EP2-mediated autocrine signaling and its production is regulated by cell-to-cell contact.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Byung-Chul; Kim, Hyung-Sik; Shin, Tae-Hoon; Kang, Insung; Lee, Jin Young; Kim, Jae-Jun; Kang, Hyun Kyoung; Seo, Yoojin; Lee, Seunghee; Yu, Kyung-Rok; Choi, Soon Won; Kang, Kyung-Sun

2016-05-27

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) possess unique immunomodulatory abilities. Many studies have elucidated the clinical efficacy and underlying mechanisms of MSCs in immune disorders. Although immunoregulatory factors, such as Prostaglandin E2 (PGE2), and their mechanisms of action on immune cells have been revealed, their effects on MSCs and regulation of their production by the culture environment are less clear. Therefore, we investigated the autocrine effect of PGE2 on human adult stem cells from cord blood or adipose tissue, and the regulation of its production by cell-to-cell contact, followed by the determination of its immunomodulatory properties. MSCs were treated with specific inhibitors to suppress PGE2 secretion, and proliferation was assessed. PGE2 exerted an autocrine regulatory function in MSCs by triggering E-Prostanoid (EP) 2 receptor. Inhibiting PGE2 production led to growth arrest, whereas addition of MSC-derived PGE2 restored proliferation. The level of PGE2 production from an equivalent number of MSCs was down-regulated via gap junctional intercellular communication. This cell contact-mediated decrease in PGE2 secretion down-regulated the suppressive effect of MSCs on immune cells. In conclusion, PGE2 produced by MSCs contributes to maintenance of self-renewal capacity through EP2 in an autocrine manner, and PGE2 secretion is down-regulated by cell-to-cell contact, attenuating its immunomodulatory potency.

Chemical Hypoxia Brings to Light Altered Autocrine Sphingosine-1-Phosphate Signalling in Rheumatoid Arthritis Synovial Fibroblasts

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Chenqi Zhao

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Emerging evidence suggests a role for sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P in various aspects of rheumatoid arthritis (RA pathogenesis. In this study we compared the effect of chemical hypoxia induced by cobalt chloride (CoCl2 on the expression of S1P metabolic enzymes and cytokine/chemokine secretion in normal fibroblast-like synoviocytes (FLS and RAFLS. RAFLS incubated with CoCl2, but not S1P, produced less IL-8 and MCP-1 than normal FLS. Furthermore, incubation with the S1P2 and S1P3 receptor antagonists, JTE-013 and CAY10444, reduced CoCl2-mediated chemokine production in normal FLS but not in RAFLS. RAFLS showed lower levels of intracellular S1P and enhanced mRNA expression of S1P phosphatase 1 (SGPP1 and S1P lyase (SPL, the enzymes that are involved in intracellular S1P degradation, when compared to normal FLS. Incubation with CoCl2 decreased SGPP1 mRNA and protein and SPL mRNA as well. Inhibition of SPL enhanced CoCl2-mediated cytokine/chemokine release and restored autocrine activation of S1P2 and S1P3 receptors in RAFLS. The results suggest that the sphingolipid pathway regulating the intracellular levels of S1P is dysregulated in RAFLS and has a significant impact on cell autocrine activation by S1P. Altered sphingolipid metabolism in FLS from patients with advanced RA raises the issue of synovial cell burnout due to chronic inflammation.

Negative feedback regulation of human platelets via autocrine activation of the platelet-derived growth factor alpha-receptor.

Science.gov (United States)

Vassbotn, F S; Havnen, O K; Heldin, C H; Holmsen, H

1994-05-13

Human platelets contain platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) in their alpha-granules which is released during platelet exocytosis. We show by immunoprecipitation and 125I-PDGF binding experiments that human platelets have functionally active PDGF alpha-receptors, but not beta-receptors. The PDGF alpha-receptor (PDGFR-alpha) was identified as a 170-kDa glycosylated protein-tyrosine kinase as found in other cell types. Stimulation of platelets with 0.1 unit/ml thrombin resulted in a significant increase (2-5-fold) of the tyrosine phosphorylation of the PDGFR-alpha, as determined by immunoprecipitation with phosphotyrosine antiserum as well as with PDGFR-alpha antiserum. The observed thrombin-induced autophosphorylation of the PDGFR-alpha was inhibited by the addition of a neutralizing monoclonal PDGF antibody. Thus, our results suggest that the platelet PDGFR-alpha is stimulated in an autocrine manner by PDGF secreted during platelet activation. Preincubation of platelets with PDGF inhibited thrombin-induced platelet aggregation and secretion of ATP + ADP and beta-hexosaminidase. Thrombin-induced platelet aggregation was also reversed when PDGF was added 30 s after thrombin stimulation. Inhibition of the autocrine PDGF pathway during platelet activation by the PDGF antibody led to a potentiation of thrombin-induced beta-hexosaminidase secretion. Thus, the PDGFR-alpha takes part in a negative feedback regulation during platelet activation. Our demonstration of PDGF alpha-receptors on human platelets and its inhibitory function during platelet activation identifies a new possible role of PDGF in the regulation of thrombosis.

An Autocrine Proliferation Repressor Regulates Dictyostelium discoideum Proliferation and Chemorepulsion Using the G Protein-Coupled Receptor GrlH

OpenAIRE

Yu Tang; Yuantai Wu; Sarah E. Herlihy; Francisco J. Brito-Aleman; Jose H. Ting; Chris Janetopoulos; Richard H. Gomer; Scott D. Emr

2018-01-01

In eukaryotic microbes, little is known about signals that inhibit the proliferation of the cells that secrete the signal, and little is known about signals (chemorepellents) that cause cells to move away from the source of the signal. Autocrine proliferation repressor protein A (AprA) is a protein secreted by the eukaryotic microbe Dictyostelium discoideum. AprA is a chemorepellent for and inhibits the proliferation of D. discoideum. We previously found that cells sense AprA using G proteins...

Role of pigment epithelium-derived factor in the involution of hemangioma: Autocrine growth inhibition of hemangioma-derived endothelial cells

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Kim, Kyung-Jin [Department of Pharmacology, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 110-799 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Biomedical Science, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 110-799 (Korea, Republic of); Yun, Jang-Hyuk; Heo, Jong-Ik [Department of Pharmacology, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 110-799 (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Eun Hui [Department of Physiology, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul 137-701 (Korea, Republic of); Min, Hye Sook [Department of Pathology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul 110-744 (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Tae Hyun, E-mail: psthchoi@snu.ac.kr [Department of Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Seoul National University Children’s Hospital, Seoul 110-744 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Pediatric Plastic and Reconstructive Surgery, Seoul National University Children’s Hospital, Seoul 110-744 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Chung-Hyun, E-mail: iamhyun@snu.ac.kr [Department of Pharmacology, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 110-799 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Biomedical Science, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 110-799 (Korea, Republic of); Ischemic/Hypoxic Disease Institute, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 110-799 (Korea, Republic of); Cancer Research Institute, College of Medicine, Seoul National University, Seoul 110-799 (Korea, Republic of)

2014-11-14

Highlights: • PEDF was expressed and induced during the involuting phase of IH. • PEDF inhibited the cell growth of the involuting HemECs in an autocrine manner. • PEDF suppression restored the impaired cell growth of the involuting HemECs. - Abstract: Hemangioma is a benign tumor derived from abnormal blood vessel growth. Unlike other vascular tumor counterparts, a hemangioma is known to proliferate during its early stage but it is followed by a stage of involution where regression of the tumor occurs. The critical onset leading to the involution of hemangioma is currently not well understood. This study focused on the molecular identities of the involution of hemangioma. We demonstrated that a soluble factor released from the involuting phase of hemangioma-derived endothelial cells (HemECs) and identified pigment epithelium-derived factor (PEDF) as an anti-angiogenic factor that was associated with the growth inhibition of the involuting HemECs. The growth inhibition of the involuting HemECs was reversed by suppression of PEDF in the involuting HemECs. Furthermore, we found that PEDF was more up-regulated in the involuting phase of hemangioma tissues than in the proliferating or the involuted. Taken together, we propose that PEDF accelerates the involution of hemangioma by growth inhibition of HemECs in an autocrine manner. The regulatory mechanism of PEDF expression could be a potential therapeutic target to treat hemangiomas.

Dictyostelium cells bind a secreted autocrine factor that represses cell proliferation.

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Choe, Jonathan M; Bakthavatsalam, Deenadayalan; Phillips, Jonathan E; Gomer, Richard H

2009-02-02

Dictyostelium cells secrete the proteins AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking either AprA or CfaD proliferate faster than wild type, while AprA or CfaD overexpressor cells proliferate slowly, indicating that AprA and CfaD are autocrine factors that repress proliferation. CfaD interacts with AprA and requires the presence of AprA to slow proliferation. To determine if CfaD is necessary for the ability of AprA to slow proliferation, whether AprA binds to cells, and if so whether the binding requires the presence of CfaD, we examined the binding and effect on proliferation of recombinant AprA. We find that the extracellular accumulation of AprA increases with cell density and reaches a concentration of 0.3 microg/ml near a stationary cell density. When added to wild-type or aprA- cells, recombinant AprA (rAprA) significantly slows proliferation at 0.1 microg/ml and higher concentrations. From 4 to 64 microg/ml, the effect of rAprA is at a plateau, slowing but not stopping proliferation. The proliferation-inhibiting activity of rAprA is roughly the same as that of native AprA in conditioned growth medium. Proliferating aprA- cells show saturable binding of rAprA to 92,000 +/- 11,000 cell-surface receptors with a KD of 0.03 +/- 0.02 microg/ml. There appears to be one class of binding site, and no apparent cooperativity. Native AprA inhibits the binding of rAprA to aprA- cells with a Ki of 0.03 mug/ml, suggesting that the binding kinetics of rAprA are similar to those of native AprA. The proliferation of cells lacking CrlA, a cAMP receptor-like protein, or cells lacking CfaD are not affected by rAprA. Surprisingly, both cell types still bind rAprA. Together, the data suggest that AprA functions as an autocrine proliferation-inhibiting factor by binding to cell surface receptors. Although AprA requires CfaD for activity, it does not require CfaD to bind to cells, suggesting the possibility that cells have an AprA receptor and a CfaD receptor, and activation of both receptors is

Induction of autocrine factor inhibiting cell motility from murine B16-BL6 melanoma cells by alpha-melanocyte stimulating hormone.

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Murata, J; Ayukawa, K; Ogasawara, M; Watanabe, H; Saiki, I

1999-03-15

We have previously reported that neuropeptide alpha-melanocyte stimulating hormone (alpha-MSH) successfully inhibited Matrigel invasion and haptotactic migration of B16-BL6 melanoma cells towards both fibronectin and laminin without affecting their growth. In the present study, we investigated the inhibitory mechanism of tumor cell motility by alpha-MSH. Alpha-MSH significantly blocked the autocrine motility factor (AMF)-enhanced cell motility. However, alpha-MSH did neither prevent the secretion of AMF from B16-BL6 cells nor alter the expression level of AMF receptor (gp78). On the other hand, alpha-MSH induced the secretion of the motility inhibitory factor(s) from B16-BL6 cells in a concentration- and time-dependent manner. The induction of the motility inhibitor(s) was proportional to increasing levels of intracellular cAMP induced by alpha-MSH as well as forskolin, and the activity was abolished by an adenylate cyclase inhibitor, 2',5'-dideoxyadenosine (DDA). The motility-inhibiting activity in conditioned medium (CM) from alpha-MSH-treated B16-BL6 cells was found to have a m.w. below 3 kDa after fractionation. This activity was abolished by boiling but insensitive to trypsin. The treatment of tumor cells with cycloheximide reduced the activity in alpha-MSH-stimulated CM. Our results suggest that alpha-MSH inhibited the motility of B16-BL6 cells through induction of autocrine factor(s).

The crystal structure of a multifunctional protein: phosphoglucose isomerase/autocrine motility factor/neuroleukin.

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Sun, Y J; Chou, C C; Chen, W S; Wu, R T; Meng, M; Hsiao, C D

1999-05-11

Phosphoglucose isomerase (PGI) plays a central role in both the glycolysis and the gluconeogenesis pathways. We present here the complete crystal structure of PGI from Bacillus stearothermophilus at 2.3-A resolution. We show that PGI has cell-motility-stimulating activity on mouse colon cancer cells similar to that of endogenous autocrine motility factor (AMF). PGI can also enhance neurite outgrowth on neuronal progenitor cells similar to that observed for neuroleukin. The results confirm that PGI is neuroleukin and AMF. PGI has an open twisted alpha/beta structural motif consisting of two globular domains and two protruding parts. Based on this substrate-free structure, together with the previously published biological, biochemical, and modeling results, we postulate a possible substrate-binding site that is located within the domains' interface for PGI and AMF. In addition, the structure provides evidence suggesting that the top part of the large domain together with one of the protruding loops might participate in inducing the neurotrophic activity.

MCP-1 expressed by osteoclasts stimulates osteoclastogenesis in an autocrine/paracrine manner

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Miyamoto, Kana; Ninomiya, Ken; Sonoda, Koh-Hei; Miyauchi, Yoshiteru; Hoshi, Hiroko; Iwasaki, Ryotaro; Miyamoto, Hiroya

2009-01-01

Monocyte chemoattractant protein-1 (MCP-1) is a chemokine that plays a critical role in the recruitment and activation of leukocytes. Here, we describe that multinuclear osteoclast formation was significantly inhibited in cells derived from MCP-1-deficient mice. MCP-1 has been implicated in the regulation of osteoclast cell-cell fusion; however defects of multinuclear osteoclast formation in the cells from mice deficient in DC-STAMP, a seven transmembrane receptor essential for osteoclast cell-cell fusion, was not rescued by recombinant MCP-1. The lack of MCP-1 in osteoclasts resulted in a down-regulation of DC-STAMP, NFATc1, and cathepsin K, all of which were highly expressed in normal osteoclasts, suggesting that osteoclast differentiation was inhibited in MCP-1-deficient cells. MCP-1 alone did not induce osteoclastogenesis, however, the inhibition of osteoclastogenesis in MCP-1-deficient cells was restored by addition of recombinant MCP-1, indicating that osteoclastogenesis was regulated in an autocrine/paracrine manner by MCP-1 under the stimulation of RANKL in osteoclasts.

Fibroblast growth factor receptor 4 (FGFR4) and fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19) autocrine enhance breast cancer cells survival.

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Tiong, Kai Hung; Tan, Boon Shing; Choo, Heng Lungh; Chung, Felicia Fei-Lei; Hii, Ling-Wei; Tan, Si Hoey; Khor, Nelson Tze Woei; Wong, Shew Fung; See, Sze-Jia; Tan, Yuen-Fen; Rosli, Rozita; Cheong, Soon-Keng; Leong, Chee-Onn

2016-09-06

Basal-like breast cancer is an aggressive tumor subtype with poor prognosis. The discovery of underlying mechanisms mediating tumor cell survival, and the development of novel agents to target these pathways, is a priority for patients with basal-like breast cancer. From a functional screen to identify key drivers of basal-like breast cancer cell growth, we identified fibroblast growth factor receptor 4 (FGFR4) as a potential mediator of cell survival. We found that FGFR4 mediates cancer cell survival predominantly via activation of PI3K/AKT. Importantly, a subset of basal-like breast cancer cells also secrete fibroblast growth factor 19 (FGF19), a canonical ligand specific for FGFR4. siRNA-mediated silencing of FGF19 or neutralization of extracellular FGF19 by anti-FGF19 antibody (1A6) decreases AKT phosphorylation, suppresses cancer cell growth and enhances doxorubicin sensitivity only in the FGFR4+/FGF19+ breast cancer cells. Consistently, FGFR4/FGF19 co-expression was also observed in 82 out of 287 (28.6%) primary breast tumors, and their expression is strongly associated with AKT phosphorylation, Ki-67 staining, higher tumor stage and basal-like phenotype. In summary, our results demonstrated the presence of an FGFR4/FGF19 autocrine signaling that mediates the survival of a subset of basal-like breast cancer cells and suggest that inactivation of this autocrine loop may potentially serve as a novel therapeutic intervention for future treatment of breast cancers.

Dictyostelium cells bind a secreted autocrine factor that represses cell proliferation

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Phillips Jonathan E

2009-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Dictyostelium cells secrete the proteins AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking either AprA or CfaD proliferate faster than wild type, while AprA or CfaD overexpressor cells proliferate slowly, indicating that AprA and CfaD are autocrine factors that repress proliferation. CfaD interacts with AprA and requires the presence of AprA to slow proliferation. To determine if CfaD is necessary for the ability of AprA to slow proliferation, whether AprA binds to cells, and if so whether the binding requires the presence of CfaD, we examined the binding and effect on proliferation of recombinant AprA. Results We find that the extracellular accumulation of AprA increases with cell density and reaches a concentration of 0.3 μg/ml near a stationary cell density. When added to wild-type or aprA- cells, recombinant AprA (rAprA significantly slows proliferation at 0.1 μg/ml and higher concentrations. From 4 to 64 μg/ml, the effect of rAprA is at a plateau, slowing but not stopping proliferation. The proliferation-inhibiting activity of rAprA is roughly the same as that of native AprA in conditioned growth medium. Proliferating aprA- cells show saturable binding of rAprA to 92,000 ± 11,000 cell-surface receptors with a KD of 0.03 ± 0.02 μg/ml. There appears to be one class of binding site, and no apparent cooperativity. Native AprA inhibits the binding of rAprA to aprA- cells with a Ki of 0.03 μg/ml, suggesting that the binding kinetics of rAprA are similar to those of native AprA. The proliferation of cells lacking CrlA, a cAMP receptor-like protein, or cells lacking CfaD are not affected by rAprA. Surprisingly, both cell types still bind rAprA. Conclusion Together, the data suggest that AprA functions as an autocrine proliferation-inhibiting factor by binding to cell surface receptors. Although AprA requires CfaD for activity, it does not require CfaD to bind to cells, suggesting the possibility that cells have an AprA receptor and a Cfa

Autocrine motility factor (neuroleukin, phosphohexose isomerase) induces cell movement through 12-lipoxygenase-dependent tyrosine phosphorylation and serine dephosphorylation events.

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Timár, J; Tóth, S; Tóvári, J; Paku, S; Raz, A

1999-01-01

Autocrine motility factor (AMF) is one of the motility cytokines regulating tumor cell migration, therefore identification of the signaling pathway coupled with it has critical importance. Previous studies revealed several elements of this pathway predominated by lipoxygenase-PKC activations but the role for tyrosine kinases remained questionable. Motility cytokines frequently have mitogenic effect as well, producing activation of overlapping signaling pathways therefore we have used B16a melanoma cells as models where AMF has exclusive motility effect. Our studies revealed that in B16a cells AMF initiated rapid (1-5 min) activation of the protein tyrosine kinase (PTK) cascade inducing phosphorylation of 179, 125, 95 and 40/37 kD proteins which was mediated by upstream cyclo- and lipoxygenases. The phosphorylated proteins were localized to the cortical actin-stress fiber attachment zones in situ by confocal microscopy. On the other hand, AMF receptor activation induced significant decrease in overall serine-phosphorylation level of cellular proteins accompanied by serine phosphorylation of 200, 90, 78 and 65 kd proteins. The decrease in serine phosphorylation was independent of PTKs, PKC as well as cyclo- and lipoxygenases. However, AMF induced robust translocation of PKCalpha to the stress fibers and cortical actin suggesting a critical role for this kinase in the generation of the motility signal. Based on the significant decrease in serine phosphorylation after AMF stimulus in B16a cells we postulated the involvement of putative serine/threonine phosphatase(s) upstream lipoxygenase and activation of the protein tyrosine kinase cascade downstream cyclo- and lipoxygenase(s) in the previously identified autocrine motility signal.

An autocrine γ-aminobutyric acid signaling system exists in pancreatic β-cell progenitors of fetal and postnatal mice.

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Feng, Mary M; Xiang, Yun-Yan; Wang, Shuanglian; Lu, Wei-Yang

2013-01-01

Gamma-aminobutyric acid (GABA) is produced and secreted by adult pancreatic β-cells, which also express GABA receptors mediating autocrine signaling and regulating β-cell proliferation. However, whether the autocrine GABA signaling involves in β-cell progenitor development or maturation remains uncertain. By means of immunohistochemistry we analyzed the expression profiles of the GABA synthesizing enzyme glutamic acid decarboxylase (GAD) and the α1-subunit of type-A GABA receptor (GABAARα1) in the pancreas of mice at embryonic day 15.5 (E15.5), E18.5, postnatal day 1 (P1) and P7. Our data showed that at E15.5 the pancreatic and duodenum homeobox-1 (Pdx1) was expressed in the majority of cells in the developing pancreata. Notably, insulin immunoreactivity was identified in a subpopulation of pancreatic cells with a high level of Pdx1 expression. About 80% of the high-level Pdx-1 expressing cells in the pancreas expressed GAD and GABAARα1 at all pancreatic developmental stages. In contrast, only about 30% of the high-level Pdx-1 expressing cells in the E15.5 pancreas expressed insulin; i.e., a large number of GAD/GABAARα1-expressing cells did not express insulin at this early developmental stage. The expression level of GAD and GABAARα1 increased steadily, and progressively more GAD/GABAARα1-expressing cells expressed insulin in the course of pancreatic development. These results suggest that 1) GABA signaling proteins appear in β-cell progenitors prior to insulin expression; and 2) the increased expression of GABA signaling proteins may be involved in β-cell progenitor maturation.

Chemokine CXCL3 mediates prostate cancer cells proliferation, migration and gene expression changes in an autocrine/paracrine fashion.

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Xin, Hua; Cao, Yu; Shao, Ming-Liang; Zhang, Wei; Zhang, Chun-Bin; Wang, Jing-Tao; Liang, Li-Chun; Shao, Wen-Wu; Qi, Ya-Ling; Li, Yue; Zhang, Ze-Yu; Yang, Zhe; Sun, Yu-Hong; Zhang, Peng-Xia; Jia, Lin-Lin; Wang, Wei-Qun

2018-05-01

We have previously indicated that CXCL3 was upregulated in the tissues of prostate cancer, and exogenous administration of CXCL3 played a predominant role in the tumorigenicity of prostate cancer cells. In the present study, we further explored the role and the underlying mechanism of CXCL3 overexpression in the oncogenic potential of prostate cancer in an autocrine/paracrine fashion. CXCL3-overexpressing prostate cancer cell line PC-3 and immortalized prostate stromal cell line WPMY-1 were established by gene transfection. CCK-8, transwell assays and growth of tumor xenografts were conducted to characterize the effects of CXCL3 on PC-3 cells' proliferation and migration. Western blotting was conducted to test whether CXCL3 could affect the expression of tumorigenesis-associated genes. The results showed that CXCL3 overexpression in PC-3 cells and the PC-3 cells treated with the supernatants of CXCL3-transfected WPMY-1 cells stimulated the proliferation and migration of PC-3 cells in vitro and in a nude mouse xenograft model. Western blotting revealed higher levels of p-ERK, Akt and Bcl-2 and lower levels of Bax in the tumor xenografts transplanted with CXCL3-transfected PC-3 cells. Moreover, the tumor xenografts derived from the PC-3 cells treated with supernatants of CXCL3-transfected WPMY-1 cells showed higher expression of ERK, Akt and Bcl-2 and lower expression of Bax. These findings suggest that CXCL3 autocrine/paracrine pathways are involved in the development of prostate cancer by regulating the expression of the target genes that are related to the progression of malignancies.

Paracrine and autocrine signals promoting full chondrogenic differentiation of a mesoblastic cell line.

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Locker, Morgane; Kellermann, Odile; Boucquey, Marie; Khun, Huot; Huerre, Michel; Poliard, Anne

2004-01-01

The pluripotent mesoblastic C1 cell line was used under serum-free culture conditions to investigate how paracrine and autocrine signals cooperate to drive chondrogenesis. Sequential addition of two systemic hormones, dexamethasone and triiodothyronine, permits full chondrogenic differentiation. The cell intrinsic activation of the BMP signaling pathway and Sox9 expression occurring on mesoblastic condensation is insufficient for recruitment of the progenitors. Dexamethasone-dependent Sox9 upregulation is essential for chondrogenesis. Differentiation of lineage stem cells relies on cell autonomous regulations modulated by external signals. We used the pluripotent mesoblastic C1 cell line under serum-free culture conditions to investigate how paracrine and autocrine signals cooperate to induce differentiation of a precursor clone along the chondrogenic lineage. C1 cells, cultured as aggregates, were induced toward chondrogenesis by addition of 10(-7) M dexamethasone in serum-free medium. After 30 days, dexamethasone was replaced by 10 nM triiodothyronine to promote final hypertrophic conversion. Mature and hypertrophic phenotypes were characterized by immunocytochemistry using specific antibodies against types II and X collagens, respectively. Type II collagen, bone morphogenetic proteins (BMPs), BMP receptors, Smads, and Sox9 expression were monitored by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR), Northern blot, and/or Western blot analysis. Once C1 cells have formed nodules, sequential addition of two systemic hormones is sufficient to promote full chondrogenic differentiation. In response to dexamethasone, nearly 100% of the C1 precursors engage in chondrogenesis and convert within 30 days into mature chondrocytes, which triggers a typical cartilage matrix. On day 25, a switch in type II procollagen mRNA splicing acted as a limiting step in the acquisition of the mature chondrocyte phenotype. On day 30, substitution of dexamethasone with

Autocrine release of angiopoietin-2 mediates cerebrovascular disintegration in Moyamoya disease.

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Blecharz, Kinga G; Frey, Dietmar; Schenkel, Tobias; Prinz, Vincent; Bedini, Gloria; Krug, Susanne M; Czabanka, Marcus; Wagner, Josephin; Fromm, Michael; Bersano, Anna; Vajkoczy, Peter

2017-04-01

Moyamoya disease is a rare steno-occlusive cerebrovascular disorder often resulting in hemorrhagic and ischemic strokes. Although sharing the same ischemic stimulus with atherosclerotic cerebrovascular disease, Moyamoya disease is characterized by a highly instable cerebrovascular system which is prone to rupture due to pathological neovascularization. To understand the molecular mechanisms underlying this instability, angiopoietin-2 gene expression was analyzed in middle cerebral artery lesions obtained from Moyamoya disease and atherosclerotic cerebrovascular disease patients. Angiopoietin-2 was significantly up-regulated in Moyamoya vessels, while serum concentrations of soluble angiopoietins were not changed. For further evaluations, cerebral endothelial cells incubated with serum from these patients in vitro were applied. In contrast to atherosclerotic cerebrovascular disease serum, Moyamoya disease serum induced an angiopoietin-2 overexpression and secretion, accompanied by loss of endothelial integrity. These effects were absent or inverse in endothelial cells of non-brain origin suggesting brain endothelium specificity. The destabilizing effects on brain endothelial cells to Moyamoya disease serum were partially suppressed by the inhibition of angiopoietin-2. Our findings define brain endothelial cells as the potential source of vessel-destabilizing factors inducing the high plasticity state and disintegration in Moyamoya disease in an autocrine manner. We also provide new insights into Moyamoya disease pathophysiology that may be helpful for preventive treatment strategies in future.

Toxoplasma gondii exposes phosphatidylserine inducing a TGF-β1 autocrine effect orchestrating macrophage evasion

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Seabra, Sergio H.; Souza, Wanderley de; Matta, Renato A. da

2004-01-01

Toxoplasmosis is a worldwide disease caused by Toxoplasma gondii. Activated macrophages control T. gondii growth by nitric oxide (NO) production. However, T. gondii active invasion inhibits NO production, allowing parasite persistence. Here we show that the mechanism used by T. gondii to inhibit NO production persisting in activated macrophages depends on phosphatidylserine (PS) exposure. Masking PS with annexin-V on parasites or activated macrophages abolished NO production inhibition and parasite persistence. NO production inhibition depended on a transforming growth factor-β 1 (TGF-β 1 ) autocrine effect confirmed by the expression of Smad 2 and 3 in infected macrophages. TGF-β 1 led to inducible nitric oxide synthase (iNOS) degradation, actin filament (F-actin) depolymerization, and lack of nuclear factor-κB (NF-κB) in the nucleus. All these features were reverted by TGF-β 1 neutralizing antibody treatment. Thus, T. gondii mimics the evasion mechanism used by Leishmania amazonensis and also the anti-inflammatory response evoked by apoptotic cells

Interleukin 1 as an autocrine growth factor for acute myeloid leukemia cells

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Cozzolino, F.; Rubartelli, A.; Aldinucci, D.; Sitia, R.; Torcia, M.; Shaw, A.; Di Guglielmo, R.

1989-01-01

Production of interleukin 1 (IL-1) by leukemic cells was studied in 13 cases of acute myeloid leukemia. Intracytoplasmic immunofluorescence studies showed that the cells invariably contained the cytokine. Endogenous labeling studies demonstrated that acute myeloid leukemia cells produced either only the 33-kDa propeptide or both the propeptide and the 17-kDa mature form of IL-1β. The 33-kDa propeptide IL-1α was always produced but was less frequently released. Involvement of IL-1 in leukemic cell growth was investigated using two antibodies specific for IL-1 subtypes, which inhibited spontaneous cell proliferation in the six cases studied. After acid treatment of the cells, a surface receptor for IL-1 could be demonstrated, which mediated 125 I-labeled IL-1-specific uptake by leukemic cells. Furthermore, recombinant IL-1α or IL-1β induced significant cell proliferation in 10 12 cases. The above findings were uncorrelated with the cytologic type (French-American-British classification) of leukemia. The studies suggest that IL-1 may act as an autocrine growth factor in most cases of acute myeloid leukemia

Luminal and basal-like breast cancer cells show increased migration induced by hypoxia, mediated by an autocrine mechanism

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Voss, Melanie J; Möller, Mischa F; Powe, Desmond G; Niggemann, Bernd; Zänker, Kurt S; Entschladen, Frank

2011-01-01

Some breast cancer patients receiving anti-angiogenic treatment show increased metastases, possibly as a result of induced hypoxia. The effect of hypoxia on tumor cell migration was assessed in selected luminal, post-EMT and basal-like breast carcinoma cell lines. Migration was assessed in luminal (MCF-7), post-EMT (MDA-MB-231, MDA-MB-435S), and basal-like (MDA-MB-468) human breast carcinoma cell lines under normal and oxygen-deprived conditions, using a collagen-based assay. Cell proliferation was determined, secreted cytokine and chemokine levels were measured using flow-cytometry and a bead-based immunoassay, and the hypoxic genes HIF-1α and CA IX were assessed using PCR. The functional effect of tumor-cell conditioned medium on the migration of neutrophil granulocytes (NG) was tested. Hypoxia caused increased migratory activity but not proliferation in all tumor cell lines, involving the release and autocrine action of soluble mediators. Conditioned medium (CM) from hypoxic cells induced migration in normoxic cells. Hypoxia changed the profile of released inflammatory mediators according to cell type. Interleukin-8 was produced only by post-EMT and basal-like cell lines, regardless of hypoxia. MCP-1 was produced by MDA-MB-435 and -468 cells, whereas IL-6 was present only in MDA-MB-231. IL-2, TNF-α, and NGF production was stimulated by hypoxia in MCF-7 cells. CM from normoxic and hypoxic MDA-MB-231 and MDA-MB-435S cells and hypoxic MCF-7 cells, but not MDA-MB-468, induced NG migration. Hypoxia increases migration by the autocrine action of released signal substances in selected luminal and basal-like breast carcinoma cell lines which might explain why anti-angiogenic treatment can worsen clinical outcome in some patients

The growth and aggressive behavior of human osteosarcoma is regulated by a CaMKII-controlled autocrine VEGF signaling mechanism.

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Daft, Paul G; Yang, Yang; Napierala, Dobrawa; Zayzafoon, Majd

2015-01-01

Osteosarcoma (OS) is a hyperproliferative malignant tumor that requires a high vascular density to maintain its large volume. Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF) plays a crucial role in angiogenesis and acts as a paracrine and autocrine agent affecting both endothelial and tumor cells. The alpha-Ca2+/Calmodulin kinase two (α-CaMKII) protein is an important regulator of OS growth. Here, we investigate the role of α-CaMKII-induced VEGF in the growth and tumorigenicity of OS. We show that the pharmacologic and genetic inhibition of α-CaMKII results in decreases in VEGF gene expression (50%) and protein secretion (55%), while α- CaMKII overexpression increases VEGF gene expression (250%) and protein secretion (1,200%). We show that aggressive OS cells (143B) express high levels of VEGF receptor 2 (VEGFR-2) and respond to exogenous VEGF (100nm) by increasing intracellular calcium (30%). This response is ameliorated by the VEGFR inhibitor CBO-P11, suggesting that secreted VEGF results in autocrine stimulated α-CaMKII activation. Furthermore, we show that VEGF and α-CaMKII inhibition decreases the transactivation of the HIF-1α and AP-1 reporter constructs. Additionally, chromatin immunoprecipitation assay shows significantly decreased binding of HIF-1α and AP-1 to their responsive elements in the VEGF promoter. These data suggest that α-CaMKII regulates VEGF transcription by controlling HIF-1α and AP-1 transcriptional activities. Finally, CBO-P11, KN-93 (CaMKII inhibitor) and combination therapy significantly reduced tumor burden in vivo. Our results suggest that VEGF-induced OS tumor growth is controlled by CaMKII and dual therapy by CaMKII and VEGF inhibitors could be a promising therapy against this devastating adolescent disease.

The growth and aggressive behavior of human osteosarcoma is regulated by a CaMKII-controlled autocrine VEGF signaling mechanism.

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Paul G Daft

Full Text Available Osteosarcoma (OS is a hyperproliferative malignant tumor that requires a high vascular density to maintain its large volume. Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor (VEGF plays a crucial role in angiogenesis and acts as a paracrine and autocrine agent affecting both endothelial and tumor cells. The alpha-Ca2+/Calmodulin kinase two (α-CaMKII protein is an important regulator of OS growth. Here, we investigate the role of α-CaMKII-induced VEGF in the growth and tumorigenicity of OS. We show that the pharmacologic and genetic inhibition of α-CaMKII results in decreases in VEGF gene expression (50% and protein secretion (55%, while α- CaMKII overexpression increases VEGF gene expression (250% and protein secretion (1,200%. We show that aggressive OS cells (143B express high levels of VEGF receptor 2 (VEGFR-2 and respond to exogenous VEGF (100nm by increasing intracellular calcium (30%. This response is ameliorated by the VEGFR inhibitor CBO-P11, suggesting that secreted VEGF results in autocrine stimulated α-CaMKII activation. Furthermore, we show that VEGF and α-CaMKII inhibition decreases the transactivation of the HIF-1α and AP-1 reporter constructs. Additionally, chromatin immunoprecipitation assay shows significantly decreased binding of HIF-1α and AP-1 to their responsive elements in the VEGF promoter. These data suggest that α-CaMKII regulates VEGF transcription by controlling HIF-1α and AP-1 transcriptional activities. Finally, CBO-P11, KN-93 (CaMKII inhibitor and combination therapy significantly reduced tumor burden in vivo. Our results suggest that VEGF-induced OS tumor growth is controlled by CaMKII and dual therapy by CaMKII and VEGF inhibitors could be a promising therapy against this devastating adolescent disease.

Arsenite evokes IL-6 secretion, autocrine regulation of STAT3 signaling, and miR-21 expression, processes involved in the EMT and malignant transformation of human bronchial epithelial cells

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Luo, Fei; Xu, Yuan; Ling, Min; Zhao, Yue; Xu, Wenchao; Liang, Xiao; Jiang, Rongrong; Wang, Bairu; Bian, Qian; Liu, Qizhan

2013-01-01

Arsenite is an established human carcinogen, and arsenite-induced inflammation contributes to malignant transformation of cells, but the molecular mechanisms by which cancers are produced remain to be established. The present results showed that, evoked by arsenite, secretion of interleukin-6 (IL-6), a pro-inflammatory cytokine, led to the activation of STAT3, a transcription activator, and to increased levels of a microRNA, miR-21. Blocking IL-6 with anti-IL-6 antibody and inhibiting STAT3 activation reduced miR-21 expression. For human bronchial epithelial cells, cultured in the presence of anti-IL-6 antibody for 3 days, the arsenite-induced EMT and malignant transformation were reversed. Thus, IL-6, acting on STAT3 signaling, which up-regulates miR-21in an autocrine manner, contributes to the EMT induced by arsenite. These data define a link from inflammation to EMT in the arsenite-induced malignant transformation of HBE cells. This link, mediated through miRNAs, establishes a mechanism for arsenite-induced lung carcinogenesis. - Highlights: • Arsenite evokes IL-6 secretion. • IL-6 autocrine mediates STAT3 signaling and up-regulates miR-21expression. • Inflammation is involved in arsenite-induced EMT

Autocrine stimulation of VEGFR-2 activates human leukemic cell growth and migration

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Dias, Sergio; Hattori, Koichi; Zhu, Zhenping; Heissig, Beate; Choy, Margaret; Lane, William; Wu, Yan; Chadburn, Amy; Hyjek, Elizabeth; Gill, Muhammad; Hicklin, Daniel J.; Witte, Larry; Moore, M.A.S.; Rafii, Shahin

2000-01-01

Emerging data suggest that VEGF receptors are expressed by endothelial cells as well as hematopoietic stem cells. Therefore, we hypothesized that functional VEGF receptors may also be expressed in malignant counterparts of hematopoietic stem cells such as leukemias. We demonstrate that certain leukemias not only produce VEGF but also express functional VEGFR-2 in vivo and in vitro, resulting in the generation of an autocrine loop that may support leukemic cell survival and proliferation. Approximately 50% of freshly isolated leukemias expressed mRNA and protein for VEGFR-2. VEGF165 induced phosphorylation of VEGFR-2 and increased proliferation of leukemic cells, demonstrating these receptors were functional. VEGF165 also induced the expression of MMP-9 by leukemic cells and promoted their migration through reconstituted basement membrane. The neutralizing mAb IMC-1C11, specific to human VEGFR-2, inhibited leukemic cell survival in vitro and blocked VEGF165-mediated proliferation of leukemic cells and VEGF-induced leukemic cell migration. Xenotransplantation of primary leukemias and leukemic cell lines into immunocompromised nonobese diabetic mice resulted in significant elevation of human, but not murine, VEGF in plasma and death of inoculated mice within 3 weeks. Injection of IMC-1C11 inhibited proliferation of xenotransplanted human leukemias and significantly increased the survival of inoculated mice. Interruption of signaling by VEGFRs, particularly VEGFR-2, may provide a novel strategy for inhibiting leukemic cell proliferation. PMID:10953026

Loss of MeCP2 disrupts cell autonomous and autocrine BDNF signaling in mouse glutamatergic neurons

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Sampathkumar, Charanya; Wu, Yuan-Ju; Vadhvani, Mayur; Trimbuch, Thorsten; Eickholt, Britta; Rosenmund, Christian

2016-01-01

Mutations in the MECP2 gene cause the neurodevelopmental disorder Rett syndrome (RTT). Previous studies have shown that altered MeCP2 levels result in aberrant neurite outgrowth and glutamatergic synapse formation. However, causal molecular mechanisms are not well understood since MeCP2 is known to regulate transcription of a wide range of target genes. Here, we describe a key role for a constitutive BDNF feed forward signaling pathway in regulating synaptic response, general growth and differentiation of glutamatergic neurons. Chronic block of TrkB receptors mimics the MeCP2 deficiency in wildtype glutamatergic neurons, while re-expression of BDNF quantitatively rescues MeCP2 deficiency. We show that BDNF acts cell autonomous and autocrine, as wildtype neurons are not capable of rescuing growth deficits in neighboring MeCP2 deficient neurons in vitro and in vivo. These findings are relevant for understanding RTT pathophysiology, wherein wildtype and mutant neurons are intermixed throughout the nervous system. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.19374.001 PMID:27782879

Autocrine CSF-1 and CSF-1 Receptor Co-expression Promotes Renal Cell Carcinoma Growth

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Menke, Julia; Kriegsmann, Jörg; Schimanski, Carl Christoph; Schwartz, Melvin M.; Schwarting, Andreas; Kelley, Vicki R.

2011-01-01

Renal cell carcinoma is increasing in incidence but the molecular mechanisms regulating its growth remain elusive. Co-expression of the monocytic growth factor CSF-1 and its receptor CSF-1R on renal tubular epithelial cells (TEC) will promote proliferation and anti-apoptosis during regeneration of renal tubules. Here we show that a CSF-1-dependent autocrine pathway is also responsible for the growth of renal cell carcinoma (RCC). CSF-1 and CSF-1R were co-expressed in RCC and TEC proximally adjacent to RCC. CSF-1 engagement of CSF-1R promoted RCC survival and proliferation and reduced apoptosis, in support of the likelihood that CSF-1R effector signals mediate RCC growth. In vivo CSF-1R blockade using a CSF-1R tyrosine kinase inhibitor decreased RCC proliferation and macrophage infiltration in a manner associated with a dramatic reduction in tumor mass. Further mechanistic investigations linked CSF-1 and EGF signaling in RCC. Taken together, our results suggest that budding RCC stimulates the proximal adjacent microenvironment in the kidney to release mediators of CSF-1, CSF-1R and EGF expression in RCC. Further, our findings imply that targeting CSF-1/CSF-1R signaling may be therapeutically effective in RCC. PMID:22052465

Collagen and Stretch Modulate Autocrine Secretion of Insulin-like Growth Factor-1 and Insulin-like Growth Factor Binding Proteins from Differentiated Skeletal Muscle Cells

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Perrone, Carmen E.; Fenwick-Smith, Daniela; Vandenburgh, Herman H.

1995-01-01

Stretch-induced skeletal muscle growth may involve increased autocrine secretion of insulin-like growth factor-1 (IGF-1) since IGF-1 is a potent growth factor for skeletal muscle hypertrophy, and stretch elevates IGF-1 mRNA levels in vivo. In tissue cultures of differentiated avian pectoralis skeletal muscle cells, nanomolar concentrations of exogenous IGF-1 stimulated growth in mechanically stretched but not static cultures. These cultures released up to 100 pg of endogenously produced IGF-1/micro-g of protein/day, as well as three major IGF binding proteins of 31, 36, and 43 kilodaltons (kDa). IGF-1 was secreted from both myofibers and fibroblasts coexisting in the muscle cultures. Repetitive stretch/relaxation of the differentiated skeletal muscle cells stimulated the acute release of IGF-1 during the first 4 h after initiating mechanical activity, but caused no increase in the long-term secretion over 24-72 h of IGF-1, or its binding proteins. Varying the intensity and frequency of stretch had no effect on the long-term efflux of IGF-1. In contrast to stretch, embedding the differentiated muscle cells in a three-dimensional collagen (Type I) matrix resulted in a 2-5-fold increase in long-term IGF-1 efflux over 24-72 h. Collagen also caused a 2-5-fold increase in the release of the IGF binding proteins. Thus, both the extracellular matrix protein type I collagen and stretch stimulate the autocrine secretion of IGF-1, but with different time kinetics. This endogenously produced growth factor may be important for the growth response of skeletal myofibers to both types of external stimuli.

Autocrine stimulation of osteoblast activity by Wnt5a in response to TNF-α in human mesenchymal stem cells

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Briolay, A. [ICBMS, UMR CNRS 5246, University of Lyon 1, Bâtiment Raulin, 43 Bd du 11 novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Lencel, P. [Physiopathology of Inflammatory Bone Diseases, EA4490, ULCO. Quai Masset, Bassin Napoléon BP120, 62327 Boulogne/Mer (France); Bessueille, L. [ICBMS, UMR CNRS 5246, University of Lyon 1, Bâtiment Raulin, 43 Bd du 11 novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Caverzasio, J. [Service of Bone Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine Specialties, University Hospital of Geneva, CH-1211 Geneva 14 (Switzerland); Buchet, R. [ICBMS, UMR CNRS 5246, University of Lyon 1, Bâtiment Raulin, 43 Bd du 11 novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex (France); Magne, D., E-mail: david.magne@univ-lyon1.fr [ICBMS, UMR CNRS 5246, University of Lyon 1, Bâtiment Raulin, 43 Bd du 11 novembre 1918, 69622 Villeurbanne Cedex (France)

2013-01-18

Highlights: ► Ankylosing spondylitis (AS) leads to bone fusions and ankylosis. ► TNF-α stimulates osteoblasts through growth factors in AS. ► We compare the involvement of canonical vs non-canonical Wnt signaling. ► Canonical Wnt signaling is not involved in TNF-α effects in differentiating hMSCs. ► TNF-α stimulates osteoblasts through Wnt5a autocrine secretion in hMSCs. -- Abstract: Although anti-tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-α treatments efficiently block inflammation in ankylosing spondylitis (AS), they are inefficient to prevent excessive bone formation. In AS, ossification seems more prone to develop in sites where inflammation has resolved following anti-TNF therapy, suggesting that TNF-α indirectly stimulates ossification. In this context, our objectives were to determine and compare the involvement of Wnt proteins, which are potent growth factors of bone formation, in the effects of TNF-α on osteoblast function. In human mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs), TNF-α significantly increased the levels of Wnt10b and Wnt5a. Associated with this effect, TNF-α stimulated tissue-non specific alkaline phosphatase (TNAP) and mineralization. This effect was mimicked by activation of the canonical β-catenin pathway with either anti-Dkk1 antibodies, lithium chloride (LiCl) or SB216763. TNF-α reduced, and activation of β-catenin had little effect on expression of osteocalcin, a late marker of osteoblast differentiation. Surprisingly, TNF-α failed to stabilize β-catenin and Dkk1 did not inhibit TNF-α effects. In fact, Dkk1 expression was also enhanced in response to TNF-α, perhaps explaining why canonical signaling by Wnt10b was not activated by TNF-α. However, we found that Wnt5a also stimulated TNAP in MSCs cultured in osteogenic conditions, and increased the levels of inflammatory markers such as COX-2. Interestingly, treatment with anti-Wnt5a antibodies reduced endogenous TNAP expression and activity. Collectively, these data suggest that increased

High epiregulin expression in human U87 glioma cells relies on IRE1α and promotes autocrine growth through EGF receptor

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Auf, Gregor; Vajkoczy, Peter; Seno, Masaharu; Bikfalvi, Andreas; Minchenko, Dmitri; Minchenko, Oleksandr; Moenner, Michel; Jabouille, Arnaud; Delugin, Maylis; Guérit, Sylvaine; Pineau, Raphael; North, Sophie; Platonova, Natalia; Maitre, Marlène; Favereaux, Alexandre

2013-01-01

Epidermal growth factor (EGF) receptors contribute to the development of malignant glioma. Here we considered the possible implication of the EGFR ligand epiregulin (EREG) in glioma development in relation to the activity of the unfolded protein response (UPR) sensor IRE1α. We also examined EREG status in several glioblastoma cell lines and in malignant glioma. Expression and biological properties of EREG were analyzed in human glioma cells in vitro and in human tumor xenografts with regard to the presence of ErbB proteins and to the blockade of IRE1α. Inactivation of IRE1α was achieved by using either the dominant-negative strategy or siRNA-mediated knockdown. EREG was secreted in high amounts by U87 cells, which also expressed its cognate EGF receptor (ErbB1). A stimulatory autocrine loop mediated by EREG was evidenced by the decrease in cell proliferation using specific blocking antibodies directed against either ErbB1 (cetuximab) or EREG itself. In comparison, anti-ErbB2 antibodies (trastuzumab) had no significant effect. Inhibition of IRE1α dramatically reduced EREG expression both in cell culture and in human xenograft tumor models. The high-expression rate of EREG in U87 cells was therefore linked to IRE1α, although being modestly affected by chemical inducers of the endoplasmic reticulum stress. In addition, IRE1-mediated production of EREG did not depend on IRE1 RNase domain, as neither the selective dominant-negative invalidation of the RNase activity (IRE1 kinase active) nor the siRNA-mediated knockdown of XBP1 had significant effect on EREG expression. Finally, chemical inhibition of c-Jun N-terminal kinases (JNK) using the SP600125 compound reduced the ability of cells to express EREG, demonstrating a link between the growth factor production and JNK activation under the dependence of IRE1α. EREG may contribute to glioma progression under the control of IRE1α, as exemplified here by the autocrine proliferation loop mediated in U87 cells by the

Autocrine CSF-1R signaling drives mesothelioma chemoresistance via AKT activation

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Cioce, M; Canino, C; Goparaju, C; Yang, H; Carbone, M; Pass, H I

2014-01-01

Clinical management of malignant pleural mesothelioma (MPM) is very challenging because of the uncommon resistance of this tumor to chemotherapy. We report here increased expression of macrophage colony-stimulating-factor-1-receptor (M-CSF/CSF-1R) mRNA in mesothelioma versus normal tissue specimens and demonstrate that CSF-1R expression identifies chemoresistant cells of mesothelial nature in both primary cultures and mesothelioma cell lines. By using RNAi or ligand trapping, we demonstrate that the chemoresistance properties of those cells depend on autocrine CSF-1R signaling. At the single-cell level, the isolated CSF-1Rpos cells exhibit a complex repertoire of pluripotency, epithelial–mesenchymal transition and detoxifying factors, which define a clonogenic, chemoresistant, precursor-like cell sub-population. The simple activation of CSF-1R in untransformed mesothelial cells is sufficient to confer clonogenicity and resistance to pemetrexed, hallmarks of mesothelioma. In addition, this induced a gene expression profile highly mimicking that observed in the MPM cells endogenously expressing the receptor and the ligands, suggesting that CSF-1R expression is mainly responsible for the phenotype of the identified cell sub-populations. The survival of CSF1Rpos cells requires active AKT (v-akt murine thymoma viral oncogene homolog 1) signaling, which contributed to increased levels of nuclear, transcriptionally competent β-catenin. Inhibition of AKT reduced the transcriptional activity of β-catenin-dependent reporters and sensitized the cells to senescence-induced clonogenic death after pemetrexed treatment. This work expands what is known on the non-macrophage functions of CSF-1R and its role in solid tumors, and suggests that CSF-1R signaling may have a critical pathogenic role in a prototypical, inflammation-related cancer such as MPM and therefore may represent a promising target for therapeutic intervention. PMID:24722292

HER2 overexpression elicits a proinflammatory IL-6 autocrine signaling loop that is critical for tumorigenesis.

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Hartman, Zachary C; Yang, Xiao-Yi; Glass, Oliver; Lei, Gangjun; Osada, Takuya; Dave, Sandeep S; Morse, Michael A; Clay, Timothy M; Lyerly, Herbert K

2011-07-01

HER2 overexpression occurs in approximately 25% of breast cancers, where it correlates with poor prognosis. Likewise, systemic inflammation in breast cancer correlates with poor prognosis, although the process is not understood. In this study, we explored the relationship between HER2 and inflammation, comparing the effects of overexpressing wild-type or mutated inactive forms of HER2 in primary human breast cells. Wild-type HER2 elicited a profound transcriptional inflammatory profile, including marked elevation of interleukin-6 (IL-6) expression, which we established to be a critical determinant of HER2 oncogenesis. Mechanistic investigations revealed that IL-6 secretion induced by HER2 overexpression activated Stat3 and altered gene expression, enforcing an autocrine loop of IL-6/Stat3 expression. Both mouse and human in vivo models of HER2-amplified breast carcinoma relied critically on this HER2-IL-6-Stat3 signaling pathway. Our studies offer the first direct evidence linking HER2 to a systemic inflammatory mechanism that orchestrates HER2-mediated tumor growth. We suggest that the HER2-IL-6-STAT3 signaling axis we have defined in breast cancer could prompt new therapeutic or prevention strategies for treatment of HER2-amplified cancers. ©2011 AACR.

Pluripotency gene expression and growth control in cultures of peripheral blood monocytes during their conversion into programmable cells of monocytic origin (PCMO: evidence for a regulatory role of autocrine activin and TGF-β.

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Hendrik Ungefroren

Full Text Available Previous studies have shown that peripheral blood monocytes can be converted in vitro to a stem cell-like cell termed PCMO as evidenced by the re-expression of pluripotency-associated genes, transient proliferation, and the ability to adopt the phenotype of hepatocytes and insulin-producing cells upon tissue-specific differentiation. However, the regulatory interactions between cultured cells governing pluripotency and mitotic activity have remained elusive. Here we asked whether activin(s and TGF-β(s, are involved in PCMO generation. De novo proliferation of PCMO was higher under adherent vs. suspended culture conditions as revealed by the appearance of a subset of Ki67-positive monocytes and correlated with down-regulation of p21WAF1 beyond day 2 of culture. Realtime-PCR analysis showed that PCMO express ActRIIA, ALK4, TβRII, ALK5 as well as TGF-β1 and the βA subunit of activin. Interestingly, expression of ActRIIA and ALK4, and activin A levels in the culture supernatants increased until day 4 of culture, while levels of total and active TGF-β1 strongly declined. PCMO responded to both growth factors in an autocrine fashion with intracellular signaling as evidenced by a rise in the levels of phospho-Smad2 and a drop in those of phospho-Smad3. Stimulation of PCMO with recombinant activins (A, B, AB and TGF-β1 induced phosphorylation of Smad2 but not Smad3. Inhibition of autocrine activin signaling by either SB431542 or follistatin reduced both Smad2 activation and Oct4A/Nanog upregulation. Inhibition of autocrine TGF-β signaling by either SB431542 or anti-TGF-β antibody reduced Smad3 activation and strongly increased the number of Ki67-positive cells. Furthermore, anti-TGF-β antibody moderately enhanced Oct4A/Nanog expression. Our data show that during PCMO generation pluripotency marker expression is controlled positively by activin/Smad2 and negatively by TGF-β/Smad3 signaling, while relief from growth inhibition is primarily the

Autocrine effect of Zn²⁺ on the glucose-stimulated insulin secretion.

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Slepchenko, Kira G; Daniels, Nigel A; Guo, Aili; Li, Yang V

2015-09-01

It is well known that zinc (Zn(2+)) is required for the process of insulin biosynthesis and the maturation of insulin secretory granules in pancreatic beta (β)-cells, and that changes in Zn(2+) levels in the pancreas have been found to be associated with diabetes. Glucose-stimulation causes a rapid co-secretion of Zn(2+) and insulin with similar kinetics. However, we do not know whether Zn(2+) regulates insulin availability and secretion. Here we investigated the effect of Zn(2+) on glucose-stimulated insulin secretion (GSIS) in isolated mouse pancreatic islets. Whereas Zn(2+) alone (control) had no effect on the basal secretion of insulin, it significantly inhibited GSIS. The application of CaEDTA, by removing the secreted Zn(2+) from the extracellular milieu of the islets, resulted in significantly increased GSIS, suggesting an overall inhibitory role of secreted Zn(2+) on GSIS. The inhibitory action of Zn(2+) was mostly mediated through the activities of KATP/Ca(2+) channels. Furthermore, during brief paired-pulse glucose-stimulated Zn(2+) secretion (GSZS), Zn(2+) secretion following the second pulse was significantly attenuated, probably by the secreted endogenous Zn(2+) after the first pulse. Such an inhibition on Zn(2+) secretion following the second pulse was completely reversed by Zn(2+) chelation, suggesting a negative feedback mechanism, in which the initial glucose-stimulated Zn(2+) release inhibits subsequent Zn(2+) secretion, subsequently inhibiting insulin co-secretion as well. Taken together, these data suggest a negative feedback mechanism on GSZS and GSIS by Zn(2+) secreted from β-cells, and the co-secreted Zn(2+) may act as an autocrine inhibitory modulator.

An Autocrine Proliferation Repressor Regulates Dictyostelium discoideum Proliferation and Chemorepulsion Using the G Protein-Coupled Receptor GrlH

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Yu Tang

2018-02-01

Full Text Available In eukaryotic microbes, little is known about signals that inhibit the proliferation of the cells that secrete the signal, and little is known about signals (chemorepellents that cause cells to move away from the source of the signal. Autocrine proliferation repressor protein A (AprA is a protein secreted by the eukaryotic microbe Dictyostelium discoideum. AprA is a chemorepellent for and inhibits the proliferation of D. discoideum. We previously found that cells sense AprA using G proteins, suggesting the existence of a G protein-coupled AprA receptor. To identify the AprA receptor, we screened mutants lacking putative G protein-coupled receptors. We found that, compared to the wild-type strain, cells lacking putative receptor GrlH (grlH{macron} cells show rapid proliferation, do not have large numbers of cells moving away from the edges of colonies, are insensitive to AprA-induced proliferation inhibition and chemorepulsion, and have decreased AprA binding. Expression of GrlH in grlH{macron} cells (grlH{macron}/grlHOE rescues the phenotypes described above. These data indicate that AprA signaling may be mediated by GrlH in D. discoideum.

Regulation of Prostate Development and Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia by Autocrine Cholinergic Signaling via Maintaining the Epithelial Progenitor Cells in Proliferating Status.

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Wang, Naitao; Dong, Bai-Jun; Quan, Yizhou; Chen, Qianqian; Chu, Mingliang; Xu, Jin; Xue, Wei; Huang, Yi-Ran; Yang, Ru; Gao, Wei-Qiang

2016-05-10

Regulation of prostate epithelial progenitor cells is important in prostate development and prostate diseases. Our previous study demonstrated a function of autocrine cholinergic signaling (ACS) in promoting prostate cancer growth and castration resistance. However, whether or not such ACS also plays a role in prostate development is unknown. Here, we report that ACS promoted the proliferation and inhibited the differentiation of prostate epithelial progenitor cells in organotypic cultures. These results were confirmed by ex vivo lineage tracing assays and in vivo renal capsule recombination assays. Moreover, we found that M3 cholinergic receptor (CHRM3) was upregulated in a large subset of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) tissues compared with normal tissues. Activation of CHRM3 also promoted the proliferation of BPH cells. Together, our findings identify a role of ACS in maintaining prostate epithelial progenitor cells in the proliferating state, and blockade of ACS may have clinical implications for the management of BPH. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Regulation of Prostate Development and Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia by Autocrine Cholinergic Signaling via Maintaining the Epithelial Progenitor Cells in Proliferating Status

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Naitao Wang

2016-05-01

Full Text Available Regulation of prostate epithelial progenitor cells is important in prostate development and prostate diseases. Our previous study demonstrated a function of autocrine cholinergic signaling (ACS in promoting prostate cancer growth and castration resistance. However, whether or not such ACS also plays a role in prostate development is unknown. Here, we report that ACS promoted the proliferation and inhibited the differentiation of prostate epithelial progenitor cells in organotypic cultures. These results were confirmed by ex vivo lineage tracing assays and in vivo renal capsule recombination assays. Moreover, we found that M3 cholinergic receptor (CHRM3 was upregulated in a large subset of benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH tissues compared with normal tissues. Activation of CHRM3 also promoted the proliferation of BPH cells. Together, our findings identify a role of ACS in maintaining prostate epithelial progenitor cells in the proliferating state, and blockade of ACS may have clinical implications for the management of BPH.

Autocrine prostaglandin E2 signaling promotes promonocytic leukemia cell survival via COX-2 expression and MAPK pathway

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Lee, Jaetae; Lee, Young Sup

2015-01-01

The COX-2/PGE2 pathway has been implicated in the occurrence and progression of cancer. The underlying mechanisms facilitating the production of COX-2 and its mediator, PGE2, in cancer survival remain unknown. Herein, we investigated PGE2-induced COX-2 expression and signaling in HL-60 cells following menadione treatment. Treatment with PGE2 activated anti-apoptotic proteins such as Bcl-2 and Bcl-xL while reducing pro-apoptotic proteins, thereby enhancing cell survival. PGE2 not only induced COX-2 expression, but also prevented casapse-3, PARP, and lamin B cleavage. Silencing and inhibition of COX-2 with siRNA transfection or treatment with indomethacin led to a pronounced reduction of the extracellular levels of PGE2, and restored the menadione-induced cell death. In addition, pretreatment of cells with the MEK inhibitor PD98059 and the PKA inhibitor H89 abrogated the PGE2-induced expression of COX-2, suggesting involvement of the MAPK and PKA pathways. These results demonstrate that PGE2 signaling acts in an autocrine manner, and specific inhibition of PGE2 will provide a novel approach for the treatment of leukemia. [BMB Reports 2015; 48(2): 109-114] PMID:24965577

HER2 overexpression elicits a pro-inflammatory IL-6 autocrine signaling loop that is critical for tumorigenesis

Science.gov (United States)

Hartman, Zachary C.; Yang, Xiao-Yi; Glass, Oliver; Lei, Gangjun; Osada, Takuya; Dave, Sandeep S.; Morse, Michael A.; Clay, Timothy M.; Lyerly, Herbert Kim

2011-01-01

HER2 overexpression occurs in ~25% of breast cancers where it correlates with poor prognosis. Likewise, systemic inflammation in breast cancer correlates with poor prognosis although the process is not understood. In this study, we explored the relationship between HER2 and inflammation, comparing the effects of overexpressing wild-type or mutated inactive forms of HER2 in primary human breast cells. Wild-type HER2 elicited a profound transcriptional inflammatory profile, including marked elevation of IL-6 expression, which we established to be a critical determinant of HER2 oncogenesis. Mechanistic investigations revealed that IL-6 secretion induced by HER2 overexpression activated Stat3 and altered gene expression, enforcing an autocrine loop of IL-6/Stat3 expression. Both mouse and human in vivo models of HER2 amplified breast carcinoma relied critically on this HER2-IL-6-Stat3 signaling pathway. Our studies offer the first direct evidence linking HER2 to a systemic inflammatory mechanism that orchestrates HER2-mediated tumor growth. We suggest that the HER2-IL6-STAT3 signaling axis we have defined in breast cancer could prompt new therapeutic or prevention strategies for treatment of HER2-amplified cancers. PMID:21518778

Reversion of autocrine transformation by a dominant negative platelet-derived growth factor mutant.

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Vassbotn, F S; Andersson, M; Westermark, B; Heldin, C H; Ostman, A

1993-07-01

A non-receptor-binding mutant of the platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF) A chain, PDGF-0, was generated by exchanging 7 amino acids in the sequence. The mutant chains formed dimers that were similar to wild-type PDGF-AA with regard to stability and rate of processing to the mature 30-kDa secreted forms. Moreover, the mutant chains formed disulfide-bonded heterodimers with the PDGF B chain in NIH 3T3 cells heterodimer underwent the same processing and secretion as PDGF-AB. Transfection of c-sis-expressing 3T3 cells with PDGF-0 significantly inhibited the transformed phenotype of these cells, as determined by the following criteria. (i) Compared with PDGF-0-negative clones, PDGF-0-producing clones showed a reverted morphology. (ii) Clones producing PDGF-0 grew more slowly than PDGF-0-negative clones, with a fivefold difference in cell number after 14 days in culture. (iii) The expression of PDGF-0 completely inhibited the ability of the c-sis-expressing 3T3 cells to form colonies in soft agar; this inhibition was overcome by the addition of recombinant PDGF-BB to the culture medium, showing that the lack of colony formation of these cells was not due to a general unresponsiveness to PDGF. The specific expression of a PDGF-0/PDGF wild-type heterodimer in COS cells revealed that the affinity of the mutant heterodimer for the PDGF alpha receptor was decreased by approximately 50-fold compared with that of PDGF-AA. Thus, we show that a non-receptor-binding PDGF A-chain mutant neutralizes in a trans-dominant manner the autocrine transforming potential of the c-sis/PDGF B chain by forming low-affinity heterodimers with wild-type PDGF chains. This method of specifically antagonizing the effect of PDGF may be useful in investigations of the role of PDGF in normal and pathological conditions.

Autocrine production of beta-chemokines protects CMV-Specific CD4 T cells from HIV infection.

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Joseph P Casazza

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Induction of a functional subset of HIV-specific CD4+ T cells that is resistant to HIV infection could enhance immune protection and decrease the rate of HIV disease progression. CMV-specific CD4+ T cells, which are less frequently infected than HIV-specific CD4+ T cells, are a model for such an effect. To determine the mechanism of this protection, we compared the functional response of HIV gag-specific and CMV pp65-specific CD4+ T cells in individuals co-infected with CMV and HIV. We found that CMV-specific CD4+ T cells rapidly up-regulated production of MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta mRNA, resulting in a rapid increase in production of MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta after cognate antigen stimulation. Production of beta-chemokines was associated with maturational phenotype and was rarely seen in HIV-specific CD4+ T cells. To test whether production of beta-chemokines by CD4+ T cells lowers their susceptibility to HIV infection, we measured cell-associated Gag DNA to assess the in vivo infection history of CMV-specific CD4+ T cells. We found that CMV-specific CD4+ T cells which produced MIP-1beta contained 10 times less Gag DNA than did those which failed to produce MIP-1beta. These data suggest that CD4+ T cells which produce MIP-1alpha and MIP-1beta bind these chemokines in an autocrine fashion which decreases the risk of in vivo HIV infection.

Autocrine growth induced by the insulin-related factor in the insulin-independent teratoma cell line 1246-3A

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yamada, Yukio; Serrero, G.

1988-01-01

An insulin-independent teratoma-derived cell line, called 1246-3A, has been isolated from the adipogenic cell line 1246, which stringently requires insulin for proliferation. The 1246-3A cell line, which can proliferate in the absence of exogenous insulin, produces in its conditioned medium a growth factor similar to pancreatic insulin by its biological and immunological properties. This factor, called insulin-related factor (IRF), was purified and iodinated to study its binding to cell surface receptors. 125 I-labeled IRF binding to intact 1246-3A cells is lower than to 1246 cells. Cell surface binding can be restored by culturing the 1246-3A cells in the presence of an anti-porcine insulin monoclonal antibody of by acid prewash of the cells prior to performing the binding. Scatchard analysis of binding indicates that IRF secreted by the 1246-3A cells partially occupies high-affinity binding sites on the producer cells. Moreover, insulin monoclonal antibody inhibits the proliferation of the IRF-producing 1246-3A cells, suggesting that these cells are dependent on the secreted IRF for growth in culture. The authors conclude that the insulin-related factor secreted by the insulin-independent 1246-3A cells stimulates their proliferation in an autocrine fashion

Stimulated human mast cells secrete mitochondrial components that have autocrine and paracrine inflammatory actions.

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Bodi Zhang

Full Text Available Mast cells are hematopoietically-derived tissue immune cells that participate in acquired and innate immunity, as well as in inflammation through release of many chemokines and cytokines, especially in response to the pro-inflammatory peptide substance P (SP. Inflammation is critical in the pathogenesis of many diseases, but the trigger(s is often unknown. We investigated if mast cell stimulation leads to secretion of mitochondrial components and whether these could elicit autocrine and/or paracrine inflammatory effects. Here we show that human LAD2 mast cells stimulated by IgE/anti-IgE or by the SP led to secretion of mitochondrial particles, mitochondrial (mt mtDNA and ATP without cell death. Mitochondria purified from LAD2 cells and, when mitochondria added to mast cells trigger degranulation and release of histamine, PGD(2, IL-8, TNF, and IL-1β. This stimulatory effect is partially inhibited by an ATP receptor antagonist and by DNAse. These results suggest that the mitochondrial protein fraction may also contribute. Purified mitochondria also stimulate IL-8 and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF release from cultured human keratinocytes, and VEGF release from primary human microvascular endothelial cells. In order to investigate if mitochondrial components could be secreted in vivo, we injected rats intraperiotoneally (ip with compound 48/80, which mimicks the action of SP. Peritoneal mast cells degranulated and mitochondrial particles were documented by transimission electron microscopy outside the cells. We also wished to investigate if mitochondrial components secreted locally could reach the systemic circulation. Administration ip of mtDNA isolated from LAD2 cells in rats was detected in their serum within 4 hr, indicating that extravascular mtDNA could enter the systemic circulation. Secretion of mitochondrial components from stimulated live mast cells may act as "autopathogens" contributing to the pathogenesis of inflammatory

Effects and Molecular Mechanism of GST-Irisin on Lipolysis and Autocrine Function in 3T3-L1 Adipocytes.

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Shanshan Gao

Full Text Available Irisin, which was recently identified as a myokine and an adipokine, transforms white adipose tissue to brown adipose tissue and has increasingly caught the attention of the medical and scientific community. However, the signaling pathway of irisin and the molecular mechanisms responsible for the lipolysis effect remain unclear. In this study, we established an efficient system for the expression and purification of GST-irisin in Escherichia coli. The biological activity of GST-irisin was verified using the cell counting kit-8 assay and by detecting the mRNA expression of uncoupling protein 1. Our data showed that GST-irisin regulates mRNA levels of lipolysis-related genes such as adipose triglyceride lipase and hormone-sensitive lipase and proteins such as the fatty acid-binding protein 4, leading to increased secretion of glycerol and decreased lipid accumulation in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. In addition, exogenous GST-irisin can increase its autocrine function in vitro by regulating the expression of fibronectin type III domain-containing protein 5. GST-irisin could regulate glucose uptake in 3T3-L1 adipocytes. Hence, we believe that recombinant GST-irisin could promote lipolysis and its secretion in vitro and can potentially prevent obesity and related metabolic diseases.

Melanoma cell-derived exosomes promote epithelial-mesenchymal transition in primary melanocytes through paracrine/autocrine signaling in the tumor microenvironment

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Xiao, Deyi; Barry, Samantha; Kmetz, Daniel; Egger, Michael; Pan, Jianmin; Rai, Shesh N; Qu, Jifu; McMasters, Kelly M.; Hao, Hongying

2016-01-01

The tumor microenvironment is abundant with exosomes that are secreted by the cancer cells themselves. Exosomes are nanosized, organelle-like membranous structures that are increasingly being recognized as major contributors in the progression of malignant neoplasms. A critical element in melanoma progression is its propensity to metastasize, but little is known about how melanoma cell-derived exosomes modulate the microenvironment to optimize conditions for tumor progression and metastasis. Here, we provide evidence that melanoma cell-derived exosomes promote phenotype switching in primary melanocytes through paracrine/autocrine signaling. We found that the mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK) signaling pathway was activated during the exosome-mediated epithelial-to-mesenchymal transition (EMT)-resembling process, which promotes metastasis. Let-7i, an miRNA modulator of EMT, was also involved in this process. We further defined two other miRNA modulators of EMT (miR-191 and let-7a) in serum exosomes for differentiating stage I melanoma patients from non-melanoma subjects. These results provide the first strong molecular evidence that melanoma cell-derived exosomes promote the EMT-resembling process in the tumor microenvironment. Thus, novel strategies targeting EMT and modulating the tumor microenvironment may emerge as important approaches for the treatment of metastatic melanoma. PMID:27063098

The ROCO kinase QkgA is necessary for proliferation inhibition by autocrine signals in Dictyostelium discoideum.

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Phillips, Jonathan E; Gomer, Richard H

2010-10-01

AprA and CfaD are secreted proteins that function as autocrine signals to inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum. Cells lacking AprA or CfaD proliferate rapidly, and adding AprA or CfaD to cells slows proliferation. Cells lacking the ROCO kinase QkgA proliferate rapidly, with a doubling time 83% of that of the wild type, and overexpression of a QkgA-green fluorescent protein (GFP) fusion protein slows cell proliferation. We found that qkgA(-) cells accumulate normal levels of extracellular AprA and CfaD. Exogenous AprA or CfaD does not slow the proliferation of cells lacking qkgA, and expression of QkgA-GFP in qkgA(-) cells rescues this insensitivity. Like cells lacking AprA or CfaD, cells lacking QkgA tend to be multinucleate, accumulate nuclei rapidly, and show a mass and protein accumulation per nucleus like those of the wild type, suggesting that QkgA negatively regulates proliferation but not growth. Despite their rapid proliferation, cells lacking AprA, CfaD, or QkgA expand as a colony on bacteria less rapidly than the wild type. Unlike AprA and CfaD, QkgA does not affect spore viability following multicellular development. Together, these results indicate that QkgA is necessary for proliferation inhibition by AprA and CfaD, that QkgA mediates some but not all of the effects of AprA and CfaD, and that QkgA may function downstream of these proteins in a signal transduction pathway regulating proliferation.

Ovarian cancer stem-like cells differentiate into endothelial cells and participate in tumor angiogenesis through autocrine CCL5 signaling.

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Tang, Shu; Xiang, Tong; Huang, Shuo; Zhou, Jie; Wang, Zhongyu; Xie, Rongkai; Long, Haixia; Zhu, Bo

2016-06-28

Cancer stem cells (CSCs) are well known for their self-regeneration and tumorigenesis potential. In addition, the multi-differentiation potential of CSCs has become a popular issue and continues to attract increased research attention. Recent studies demonstrated that CSCs are able to differentiate into functional endothelial cells and participate in tumor angiogenesis. In this study, we found that ovarian cancer stem-like cells (CSLCs) activate the NF-κB and STAT3 signal pathways through autocrine CCL5 signaling and mediate their own differentiation into endothelial cells (ECs). Our data demonstrate that CSLCs differentiate into ECs morphologically and functionally. Anti-CCL5 antibodies and CCL5-shRNA lead to markedly inhibit EC differentiation and the tube formation of CSLCs, both in vitro and in vivo. Recombinant human-CCL5 significantly promotes ovarian CSLCs that differentiate into ECs and form microtube network. The CCL5-mediated EC differentiation of CSLCs depends on binding to receptors, such as CCR1, CCR3, and CCR5. The results demonstrated that CCL5-CCR1/CCR3/CCR5 activates the NF-κB and STAT3 signal pathways, subsequently mediating the differentiation of CSLCs into ECs. Therefore, this study was conducted based on the theory that CSCs improve tumor angiogenesis and provides a novel strategy for anti-angiogenesis in ovarian cancer. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Nogo-B Promotes Angiogenesis in Proliferative Diabetic Retinopathy via VEGF/PI3K/Akt Pathway in an Autocrine Manner

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Yuelu Zhang

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background/Aims: Nogo-B, a conservative protein of endoplasmic reticulum, is a member of the reticulon family of proteins. Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR is the major concerning problem of diabetic retinopathy. This study explored the role of Nogo-B in the regulation of angiogenesis in PDR patients and primary human retinal endothelial cells (HRMECs. Methods: Nogo-B was down-regulated through the use of Lentivirus-NogoB-RNAi, the effects of Nogo-B on angiogenesis under high glucose stimulation were evaluated via CCK-8 assay, wound closure assay, transwell assay, and tube formation assay. Expression of Nogo-B, VEGF, PI3K and Akt were determined by western blotting, immunofluorescence, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA. Co-culture systerm was used to explore cell communication. Results: Nogo-B was highly enriched in ocular tissues of PDR patients and in HRMECs exposed to high glucose. Down-regulation of Nogo-B attenuated high glucose induced cell migration and tube formation in HRMECs. Mechanistically, in comparison with the negative control group, Lentivirus-NogoB-RNAi group had exhibited reduced VEGF secretion, weakened PI3K and Akt activation. Besides, high glucose treatment promoted the secretion of Nogo-B and presented as a “long-term memory”. Conclusions: These data collectively indicated that Nogo-B promoted angiogenesis in HRMECs via VEGF/PI3K/Akt pathway in an autocrine manner.

Celecoxib alleviates tamoxifen-instigated angiogenic effects by ROS-dependent VEGF/VEGFR2 autocrine signaling

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Kumar, B N Prashanth; Rajput, Shashi; Dey, Kaushik Kumar; Parekh, Aditya; Das, Subhasis; Mazumdar, Abhijit; Mandal, Mahitosh

2013-01-01

Tamoxifen (TAM) is widely used in the chemotherapy of breast cancer and as a preventive agent against recurrence after surgery. However, extended TAM administration for breast cancer induces increased VEGF levels in patients, promoting new blood vessel formation and thereby limiting its efficacy. Celecoxib (CXB), a selective COX-2 inhibitor, suppresses VEGF gene expression by targeting the VEGF promoter responsible for its inhibitory effect. For this study, we had selected CXB as non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drug in combination with TAM for suppressing VEGF expression and simultaneously reducing doses of both the drugs. The effects of CXB combined with TAM were examined in two human breast cancer cell lines in culture, MCF7 and MDA-MB-231. Assays of proliferation, apoptosis, angiogenesis, metastasis, cell cycle distribution, and receptor signaling were performed. Here, we elucidated how the combination of TAM and CXB at nontoxic doses exerts anti-angiogenic effects by specifically targeting VEGF/VEGFR2 autocrine signaling through ROS generation. At the molecular level, TAM-CXB suppresses VHL-mediated HIF-1α activation, responsible for expression of COX-2, MMP-2 and VEGF. Besides low VEGF levels, TAM-CXB also suppresses VEGFR2 expression, confirmed through quantifying secreted VEGF levels, luciferase and RT-PCR studies. Interestingly, we observed that TAM-CXB was effective in blocking VEGFR2 promoter induced expression and further 2 fold decrease in VEGF levels was observed in combination than TAM alone in both cell lines. Secondly, TAM-CXB regulated VEGFR2 inhibits Src expression, responsible for tumor progression and metastasis. FACS and in vivo enzymatic studies showed significant increase in the reactive oxygen species upon TAM-CXB treatment. Taken together, our experimental results indicate that this additive combination shows promising outcome in anti-metastatic and apoptotic studies. In a line, our preclinical studies evidenced that this additive

Thrombin induces epithelial-mesenchymal transition and collagen production by retinal pigment epithelial cells via autocrine PDGF-receptor signaling.

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Bastiaans, Jeroen; van Meurs, Jan C; van Holten-Neelen, Conny; Nagtzaam, Nicole M A; van Hagen, P Martin; Chambers, Rachel C; Hooijkaas, Herbert; Dik, Willem A

2013-12-19

De-differentiation of RPE cells into mesenchymal cells (epithelial-mesenchymal transition; EMT) and associated collagen production contributes to development of proliferative vitreoretinopathy (PVR). In patients with PVR, intraocular coagulation cascade activation occurs and may play an important initiating role. Therefore, we examined the effect of the coagulation proteins factor Xa and thrombin on EMT and collagen production by RPE cells. Retinal pigment epithelial cells were stimulated with factor Xa or thrombin and the effect on zonula occludens (ZO)-1, α-smooth muscle actin (α-SMA), collagen, and platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF)-B were determined by real-time quantitative-polymerase chain reaction (RQ-PCR), immunofluorescence microscopy, and HPLC and ELISA for collagen and PDGF-BB in culture supernatants, respectively. PDGF-receptor activation was determined by phosphorylation analysis and inhibition studies using the PDGF-receptor tyrosine kinase inhibitor AG1296. Thrombin reduced ZO-1 gene expression (P production of α-SMA and collagen increased. In contrast to thrombin, factor Xa hardly stimulated EMT by RPE. Thrombin clearly induced PDGF-BB production and PDGF-Rβ chain phosphorylation in RPE. Moreover, AG1296 significantly blocked the effect of thrombin on EMT and collagen production. Our findings demonstrate that thrombin is a potent inducer of EMT by RPE via autocrine activation of PDGF-receptor signaling. Coagulation cascade-induced EMT of RPE may thus contribute to the formation of fibrotic retinal membranes in PVR and should be considered as treatment target in PVR.

An autocrine ATP release mechanism regulates basal ciliary activity in airway epithelium.

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Droguett, Karla; Rios, Mariana; Carreño, Daniela V; Navarrete, Camilo; Fuentes, Christian; Villalón, Manuel; Barrera, Nelson P

2017-07-15

antagonist used to block P2X7 receptors, which reduced basal CBF by 85%. Additionally, increasing extracellular ATP levels (0.1-100 μm) increased CBF, maintaining a sustained response that was suppressed in the presence of carbenoxolone. We also show that high levels of ATP (1 mm), associated with inflammatory conditions, lowered basal CBF by reducing [Ca 2+ ] i and hemichannel functionality. In summary, we provide evidence indicating that airway epithelium ATP release is the molecular autocrine mechanism regulating basal ciliary activity and is also the mediator of the ciliary response to chemical stimulation. © 2017 The Authors. The Journal of Physiology © 2017 The Physiological Society.

IL-1β Suppresses the Formation of Osteoclasts by Increasing OPG Production via an Autocrine Mechanism Involving Celecoxib-Related Prostaglandins in Chondrocytes

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Yusuke Watanabe

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Elevated interleukin (IL-1 concentrations in synovial fluid have been implicated in joint bone and cartilage destruction. Previously, we showed that IL-1β stimulated the expression of prostaglandin (PG receptor EP4 via increased PGE2 production. However, the effect of IL-1β on osteoclast formation via chondrocytes is unclear. Therefore, we examined the effect of IL-1β and/or celecoxib on the expression of macrophage colony-stimulating factor (M-CSF, receptor activator of NF-κB ligand (RANKL, and osteoprotegerin (OPG in human chondrocytes, and the indirect effect of IL-1β on osteoclast-like cell formation using RAW264.7 cells. OPG and RANKL expression increased with IL-1β; whereas M-CSF expression decreased. Celecoxib blocked the stimulatory effect of IL-1β. Conditioned medium from IL-1β-treated chondrocytes decreased TRAP staining in RAW264.7 cells. These results suggest that IL-1β suppresses the formation of osteoclast-like cells via increased OPG production and decreased M-CSF production in chondrocytes, and OPG production may increase through an autocrine mechanism involving celecoxib-related PGs.

Prognostic factors of craniopharyngioma with special reference to autocrine/paracrine signaling: underestimated implication of growth hormone receptor.

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Ogawa, Yoshikazu; Watanabe, Mika; Tominaga, Teiji

2015-10-01

Craniopharyngioma is a slow-growing tumor classified as benign, but tight adhesion and significant local infiltration to the vital structures are common. In spite of improvement of modern microsurgery techniques and precise anatomical understanding not few cases of this tumor recur, and long-term tumor control and maintenance of quality of life are sometimes difficult. However, very little is known about the effects of the molecular characters of craniopharyngioma on the prognosis. Ninety eight cases of craniopharyngioma surgically treated at the Department of Neurosurgery, Tohoku University Hospital and Kohnan Hospital from April 1996 to May 2014, 45 males and 53 females aged from 2 to 80 years (mean, 40.84 years) were retrospectively reviewed, and postoperative outcomes and the possible involvement of the autocrine/paracrine mechanism were investigated. The patients were followed up at intervals of 6 months to assess tumor recurrence, and clinical outcomes were correlated with the findings of immunohistochemical examinations used growth hormone receptor (GHR) and downstream hormones. The follow-up period ranged from 3 to 209 months. Hormone expression was examined in 88 patients, of which 46 specimens (52.3 %) showed high expression of GHR. The GHR high expression group had a significantly shorter duration of postoperative stable disease compared with the low expression group (logrank test, p = 0.007). Simultaneous high expression of growth hormone (GH) and GHR was found in 33 specimens (37.5 %), and the high expression group had a significantly shorter duration of postoperative stable disease compared with the low expression group (logrank test, p = 0.011). No other hormones showed statistically significant differences in outcomes. High expression of GHR is associated with shorter duration of postoperative stable disease in patients with craniopharyngioma. If the surgical specimens were craniopharyngiomas with high GHR expression, GH supplementation

Construction and Screening of a Lentiviral Secretome Library.

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Liu, Tao; Jia, Panpan; Ma, Huailei; Reed, Sean A; Luo, Xiaozhou; Larman, H Benjamin; Schultz, Peter G

2017-06-22

Over 2,000 human proteins are predicted to be secreted, but the biological function of the many of these proteins is still unknown. Moreover, a number of these proteins may act as new therapeutic agents or be targets for the development of therapeutic antibodies. To further explore the extracellular proteome, we have developed a secretome-enriched open reading frame (ORF) library that can be readily screened for autocrine activity in cell-based phenotypic or reporter assays. Next-generation sequencing (NGS) and database analysis predict that the library contains approximately 900 ORFs encoding known secreted proteins (accounting for 77.8% of the library), as well as genes encoding potentially unknown secreted proteins. In a proof-of-principle study, human TF-1 cells were screened for proliferative factors, and the known cytokine GMCSF was identified as a dominant hit. This library offers a relatively low-cost and straightforward approach for functional autocrine screens of secreted proteins. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Autocrine production of TGF-β confers resistance to apoptosis after an epithelial-mesenchymal transition process in hepatocytes: Role of EGF receptor ligands

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Castillo, Gaelle del; Murillo, Miguel M.; Alvarez-Barrientos, Alberto; Bertran, Esther; Fernandez, Margarita; Sanchez, Aranzazu; Fabregat, Isabel

2006-01-01

Transforming growth factor-beta (TGF-β) induces apoptosis in fetal rat hepatocytes. However, a subpopulation of these cells survives, concomitant with changes in phenotype, reminiscent of an epithelial-mesenchymal transition (EMT). We have previously suggested that EMT might confer cell resistance to apoptosis (Valdes et al., Mol. Cancer Res., 1: 68-78, 2002). However, the molecular mechanisms responsible for this resistance are not explored yet. In this work, we have isolated and subcultured the population of hepatocytes that suffered the EMT process and are resistant to apoptosis (TGF-β-treated fetal hepatocytes: TβT-FH). We prove that they secrete mitogenic and survival factors, as analyzed by the proliferative and survival capacity of conditioned medium. Inhibition of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) sensitizes TβT-FH to die after serum withdrawal. TβT-FH expresses high levels of transforming growth factor-alpha (TGF-α) and heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor (HB-EGF) and shows constitutive activation of the EGFR pathway. A blocking anti-TGF-α antibody restores the capacity of cells to die. TGF-β, which is expressed by TβT-FH, mediates up-regulation of TGF-α and HB-EGF expression in those cells. In summary, results suggest that an autocrine loop of TGF-β confers resistance to apoptosis after an EMT process in hepatocytes, through the increase in the expression of EGFR ligands

A phosphatase-independent gain-of-function mutation in PTEN triggers aberrant cell growth in astrocytes through an autocrine IGF-1 loop.

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Fernández, S; Genis, L; Torres-Alemán, I

2014-08-07

Loss-of-function mutations in the phosphatase PTEN (phosphatase and tensin homolog deleted on chromosome10) contribute to aberrant cell growth in part through upregulation of the mitogenic IGF-1/PI3K/Akt pathway. In turn, this pathway exerts a homeostatic feedback over PTEN. Using mutagenesis analysis to explore a possible impact of this mutual control on astrocyte growth, we found that truncation of the C-terminal region of PTEN (Δ51) associates with a marked increase in NFκB activity, a transcription factor overactivated in astrocyte tumors. Whereas mutations of PTEN are considered to lead to a loss-of-function, PTENΔ51, a truncation that comprises a region frequently mutated in human gliomas, displayed a neomorphic (gain-of-function) activity that was independent of its phosphatase activity. This gain-of-function of PTENΔ51 includes stimulation of IGF-1 synthesis through protein kinase A activation of the IGF-1 promoter. Increased IGF-1 originates an autocrine loop that activates Akt and NFκB. Constitutive activation of NFκB in PTENΔ51-expressing astrocytes leads to aberrant cell growth; astrocytes expressing this mutant PTEN generate colonies in vitro and tumors in vivo. Mutations converting a tumor suppressor such as PTEN into a tumor promoter through a gain-of-function involving IGF-1 production may further our understanding of the role played by this growth factor in glioma growth and help us define druggable targets for personalized therapy.

Proinflammatory Effect of High Glucose Concentrations on HMrSV5 Cells via the Autocrine Effect of HMGB1

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Yuening Chu

2017-09-01

Full Text Available Background: Peritoneal fibrosis, in which inflammation and apoptosis play crucial pathogenic roles, is a severe complication associated with the treatment of kidney failure with peritoneal dialysis (PD using a glucose-based dialysate. Mesothelial cells (MCs take part in the inflammatory processes by producing various cytokines and chemokines, such as monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 (MCP-1 and interleukin 8 (IL-8. The apoptosis of MCs induced by high glucose levels also contributes to complications of PD. High mobility group protein B1 (HMGB1 is an inflammatory factor that has repeatedly been proven to be related to the occurrence of peritoneal dysfunction.Aim: In this study, we aimed to explore the effect and underlying mechanism of endogenous HMGB1 in high-glucose-induced MC injury.Methods: The human peritoneal MC line, HMrSV5 was cultured in high-glucose medium and incubated with recombinant HMGB1. Cellular expression of HMGB1 was blocked using HMGB1 small interfering RNA (siRNA. Apoptosis and production of inflammatory factors as well as the potential intermediary signaling pathways were examined.Results: The major findings of these analyses were: (1 MCs secreted HMGB1 from the nucleus during exposure to high glucose levels; HMGB1 acted in an autocrine fashion on the MCs to promote the production of MCP-1 and IL-8; (2 HMGB1 had little effect on high-glucose-induced apoptosis of the MCs; and (3 HMGB1-mediated MCP-1 and IL-8 production depended on the activation of MAPK signaling pathways. In conclusion, endogenous HMGB1 plays an important role in the inflammatory reaction induced by high glucose on MCs via mitogen-activated protein kinase (MAPK signaling pathways, but it seems to have little effect on high-glucose-induced apoptosis.

An Autocrine Proliferation Repressor Regulates Dictyostelium discoideum Proliferation and Chemorepulsion Using the G Protein-Coupled Receptor GrlH.

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Tang, Yu; Wu, Yuantai; Herlihy, Sarah E; Brito-Aleman, Francisco J; Ting, Jose H; Janetopoulos, Chris; Gomer, Richard H

2018-02-13

In eukaryotic microbes, little is known about signals that inhibit the proliferation of the cells that secrete the signal, and little is known about signals (chemorepellents) that cause cells to move away from the source of the signal. Autocrine proliferation repressor protein A (AprA) is a protein secreted by the eukaryotic microbe Dictyostelium discoideum AprA is a chemorepellent for and inhibits the proliferation of D. discoideum We previously found that cells sense AprA using G proteins, suggesting the existence of a G protein-coupled AprA receptor. To identify the AprA receptor, we screened mutants lacking putative G protein-coupled receptors. We found that, compared to the wild-type strain, cells lacking putative receptor GrlH ( grlH¯ cells) show rapid proliferation, do not have large numbers of cells moving away from the edges of colonies, are insensitive to AprA-induced proliferation inhibition and chemorepulsion, and have decreased AprA binding. Expression of GrlH in grlH¯ cells ( grlH¯/grlH OE ) rescues the phenotypes described above. These data indicate that AprA signaling may be mediated by GrlH in D. discoideum IMPORTANCE Little is known about how eukaryotic cells can count themselves and thus regulate the size of a tissue or density of cells. In addition, little is known about how eukaryotic cells can sense a repellant signal and move away from the source of the repellant, for instance, to organize the movement of cells in a developing embryo or to move immune cells out of a tissue. In this study, we found that a eukaryotic microbe uses G protein-coupled receptors to mediate both cell density sensing and chemorepulsion. Copyright © 2018 Tang et al.

The putative bZIP transcription factor BzpN slows proliferation and functions in the regulation of cell density by autocrine signals in Dictyostelium.

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Jonathan E Phillips

Full Text Available The secreted proteins AprA and CfaD function as autocrine signals that inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum, thereby regulating cell numbers by a negative feedback mechanism. We report here that the putative basic leucine zipper transcription factor BzpN plays a role in the inhibition of proliferation by AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking BzpN proliferate more rapidly than wild-type cells but do not reach a higher stationary density. Recombinant AprA inhibits wild-type cell proliferation but does not inhibit the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Recombinant CfaD also inhibits wild-type cell proliferation, but promotes the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Overexpression of BzpN results in a reduced cell density at stationary phase, and this phenotype requires AprA, CfaD, and the kinase QkgA. Conditioned media from high-density cells stops the proliferation of wild-type but not bzpN(- cells and induces a nuclear localization of a BzpN-GFP fusion protein, though this localization does not require AprA or CfaD. Together, the data suggest that BzpN is necessary for some but not all of the effects of AprA and CfaD, and that BzpN may function downstream of AprA and CfaD in a signal transduction pathway that inhibits proliferation.

The Putative bZIP Transcripton Factor BzpN Slows Proliferation and Functions in the Regulation of Cell Density by Autocrine Signals in Dictyostelium

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Phillips, Jonathan E.; Huang, Eryong; Shaulsky, Gad; Gomer, Richard H.

2011-01-01

The secreted proteins AprA and CfaD function as autocrine signals that inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum, thereby regulating cell numbers by a negative feedback mechanism. We report here that the putative basic leucine zipper transcription factor BzpN plays a role in the inhibition of proliferation by AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking BzpN proliferate more rapidly than wild-type cells but do not reach a higher stationary density. Recombinant AprA inhibits wild-type cell proliferation but does not inhibit the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Recombinant CfaD also inhibits wild-type cell proliferation, but promotes the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Overexpression of BzpN results in a reduced cell density at stationary phase, and this phenotype requires AprA, CfaD, and the kinase QkgA. Conditioned media from high-density cells stops the proliferation of wild-type but not bzpN− cells and induces a nuclear localization of a BzpN-GFP fusion protein, though this localization does not require AprA or CfaD. Together, the data suggest that BzpN is necessary for some but not all of the effects of AprA and CfaD, and that BzpN may function downstream of AprA and CfaD in a signal transduction pathway that inhibits proliferation. PMID:21760904

The putative bZIP transcription factor BzpN slows proliferation and functions in the regulation of cell density by autocrine signals in Dictyostelium.

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Phillips, Jonathan E; Huang, Eryong; Shaulsky, Gad; Gomer, Richard H

2011-01-01

The secreted proteins AprA and CfaD function as autocrine signals that inhibit cell proliferation in Dictyostelium discoideum, thereby regulating cell numbers by a negative feedback mechanism. We report here that the putative basic leucine zipper transcription factor BzpN plays a role in the inhibition of proliferation by AprA and CfaD. Cells lacking BzpN proliferate more rapidly than wild-type cells but do not reach a higher stationary density. Recombinant AprA inhibits wild-type cell proliferation but does not inhibit the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Recombinant CfaD also inhibits wild-type cell proliferation, but promotes the proliferation of cells lacking BzpN. Overexpression of BzpN results in a reduced cell density at stationary phase, and this phenotype requires AprA, CfaD, and the kinase QkgA. Conditioned media from high-density cells stops the proliferation of wild-type but not bzpN(-) cells and induces a nuclear localization of a BzpN-GFP fusion protein, though this localization does not require AprA or CfaD. Together, the data suggest that BzpN is necessary for some but not all of the effects of AprA and CfaD, and that BzpN may function downstream of AprA and CfaD in a signal transduction pathway that inhibits proliferation.

PPARα autocrine regulation of Ca²⁺-regulated exocytosis in guinea pig antral mucous cells: NO and cGMP accumulation.

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Tanaka, Saori; Sugiyama, Nanae; Takahashi, Yuko; Mantoku, Daiki; Sawabe, Yukinori; Kuwabara, Hiroko; Nakano, Takashi; Shimamoto, Chikao; Matsumura, Hitoshi; Marunaka, Yoshinori; Nakahari, Takashi

2014-12-15

In antral mucous cells, acetylcholine (ACh, 1 μM) activates Ca(2+)-regulated exocytosis, consisting of a peak in exocytotic events that declines rapidly (initial phase) followed by a second slower decline (late phase) lasting during ACh stimulation. GW7647 [a peroxisome proliferation activation receptor α (PPARα) agonist] enhanced the ACh-stimulated initial phase, and GW6471 (a PPARα antagonist) abolished the GW7647-induced enhancement. However, GW6471 produced the delayed, but transient, increase in the ACh-stimulated late phase, and it also decreased the initial phase and produced the delayed increase in the late phase during stimulation with ACh alone. A similar delayed increase in the ACh-stimulated late phase is induced by an inhibitor of the PKG, Rp8BrPETcGMPS, suggesting that GW6471 inhibits cGMP accumulation. An inhibitor of nitric oxide synthase 1 (NOS1), N(5)-[imino(propylamino)methyl]-L-ornithine hydrochloride (N-PLA), also abolished the GW7647-induced-enhancement of ACh-stimulated initial phase but produced the delayed increase in the late phase. However, in the presence of N-PLA, an NO donor or 8BrcGMP enhanced the ACh-stimulated initial phase and abolished the delayed increase in the late phase. Moreover, GW7647 and ACh stimulated NO production and cGMP accumulation in antral mucosae, which was inhibited by GW6471 or N-PLA. Western blotting and immunohistochemistry revealed that NOS1 and PPARα colocalize in antral mucous cells. In conclusion, during ACh stimulation, a PPARα autocrine mechanism, which accumulates NO via NOS1 leading to cGMP accumulation, modulates the Ca(2+)-regulated exocytosis in antral mucous cells. Copyright © 2014 the American Physiological Society.

Human Scalp Hair Follicles Are Both a Target and a Source of Prolactin, which Serves as an Autocrine and/or Paracrine Promoter of Apoptosis-Driven Hair Follicle Regression

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Foitzik, Kerstin; Krause, Karoline; Conrad, Franziska; Nakamura, Motonobu; Funk, Wolfang; Paus, Ralf

2006-01-01

The prototypic pituitary hormone prolactin (PRL) exerts a wide variety of bioregulatory effects in mammals and is also found in extrapituitary sites, including murine skin. Here, we show by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and immunohistology that, contrary to a previous report, human skin and normal human scalp hair follicles (HFs), in particular, express both PRL and PRL receptors (PRL-R) at the mRNA and protein level. PRL and PRL-R immunoreactivity can be detected in the epithelium of human anagen VI HFs, while the HF mesenchyme is negative. During the HF transformation from growth (anagen) to apoptosis-driven regression (catagen), PRL and PRL-R immunoreactivity appear up-regulated. Treatment of organ-cultured human scalp HFs with high-dose PRL (400 ng/ml) results in a significant inhibition of hair shaft elongation and premature catagen development, along with reduced proliferation and increased apoptosis of hair bulb keratinocytes (Ki-67/terminal dUTP nick-end labeling immunohistomorphometry). This shows that PRL receptors, expressed in HFs, are functional and that human skin and human scalp HFs are both direct targets and sources of PRL. Our data suggest that PRL acts as an autocrine hair growth modulator with catagen-promoting functions and that the hair growth-inhibitory effects of PRL demonstrated here may underlie the as yet ill-understood hair loss in patients with hyperprolactinemia. PMID:16507890

Human scalp hair follicles are both a target and a source of prolactin, which serves as an autocrine and/or paracrine promoter of apoptosis-driven hair follicle regression.

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Foitzik, Kerstin; Krause, Karoline; Conrad, Franziska; Nakamura, Motonobu; Funk, Wolfang; Paus, Ralf

2006-03-01

The prototypic pituitary hormone prolactin (PRL) exerts a wide variety of bioregulatory effects in mammals and is also found in extrapituitary sites, including murine skin. Here, we show by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction and immunohistology that, contrary to a previous report, human skin and normal human scalp hair follicles (HFs), in particular, express both PRL and PRL receptors (PRL-R) at the mRNA and protein level. PRL and PRL-R immunoreactivity can be detected in the epithelium of human anagen VI HFs, while the HF mesenchyme is negative. During the HF transformation from growth (anagen) to apoptosis-driven regression (catagen), PRL and PRL-R immunoreactivity appear up-regulated. Treatment of organ-cultured human scalp HFs with high-dose PRL (400 ng/ml) results in a significant inhibition of hair shaft elongation and premature catagen development, along with reduced proliferation and increased apoptosis of hair bulb keratinocytes (Ki-67/terminal dUTP nick-end labeling immunohistomorphometry). This shows that PRL receptors, expressed in HFs, are functional and that human skin and human scalp HFs are both direct targets and sources of PRL. Our data suggest that PRL acts as an autocrine hair growth modulator with catagen-promoting functions and that the hair growth-inhibitory effects of PRL demonstrated here may underlie the as yet ill-understood hair loss in patients with hyper-prolactinemia.

FGF7 supports hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells and niche-dependent myeloblastoma cells via autocrine action on bone marrow stromal cells in vitro

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Ishino, Ruri; Minami, Kaori; Tanaka, Satowa [Laboratory of Hematology, Division of Medical Biophysics, Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences, 7-10-2 Tomogaoka, Suma-ku, Kobe 654-0142 (Japan); Nagai, Mami [Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 159-8555 (Japan); Matsui, Keiji; Hasegawa, Natsumi [Laboratory of Hematology, Division of Medical Biophysics, Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences, 7-10-2 Tomogaoka, Suma-ku, Kobe 654-0142 (Japan); Roeder, Robert G. [Laboratory of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10065 (United States); Asano, Shigetaka [Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 159-8555 (Japan); Ito, Mitsuhiro, E-mail: itomi@med.kobe-u.ac.jp [Laboratory of Hematology, Division of Medical Biophysics, Kobe University Graduate School of Health Sciences, 7-10-2 Tomogaoka, Suma-ku, Kobe 654-0142 (Japan); Laboratory of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, The Rockefeller University, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10065 (United States); Consolidated Research Institute for Advanced Science and Medical Care, Waseda University, 3-4-1 Okubo, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 159-8555 (Japan); Department of Family and Community Medicine, Kobe University Graduate School of Medicine, 7-5-1 Kusunoki-cho, Chuo-ku, Kobe 654-0142 (Japan)

2013-10-11

Highlights: •FGF7 is downregulated in MED1-deficient mesenchymal cells. •FGF7 produced by mesenchymal stromal cells is a novel hematopoietic niche molecule. •FGF7 supports hematopoietic progenitor cells and niche-dependent leukemia cells. •FGF7 activates FGFR2IIIb of bone marrow stromal cells in an autocrine manner. •FGF7 indirectly acts on hematopoietic cells lacking FGFR2IIIb via stromal cells. -- Abstract: FGF1 and FGF2 support hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) under stress conditions. In this study, we show that fibroblast growth factor (FGF7) may be a novel niche factor for HSPC support and leukemic growth. FGF7 expression was attenuated in mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) deficient for the MED1 subunit of the Mediator transcriptional coregulator complex. When normal mouse bone marrow (BM) cells were cocultured with Med1{sup +/+} MEFs or BM stromal cells in the presence of anti-FGF7 antibody, the growth of BM cells and the number of long-time culture-initiating cells (LTC-ICs) decreased significantly. Anti-FGF7 antibody also attenuated the proliferation and cobblestone formation of MB1 stromal cell-dependent myeloblastoma cells. The addition of recombinant FGF7 to the coculture of BM cells and Med1{sup −/−} MEFs increased BM cells and LTC-ICs. FGF7 and its cognate receptor, FGFR2IIIb, were undetectable in BM cells, but MEFs and BM stromal cells expressed both. FGF7 activated downstream targets of FGFR2IIIb in Med1{sup +/+} and Med1{sup −/−} MEFs and BM stromal cells. Taken together, we propose that FGF7 supports HSPCs and leukemia-initiating cells indirectly via FGFR2IIIb expressed on stromal cells.

FGF7 supports hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells and niche-dependent myeloblastoma cells via autocrine action on bone marrow stromal cells in vitro

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishino, Ruri; Minami, Kaori; Tanaka, Satowa; Nagai, Mami; Matsui, Keiji; Hasegawa, Natsumi; Roeder, Robert G.; Asano, Shigetaka; Ito, Mitsuhiro

2013-01-01

Highlights: •FGF7 is downregulated in MED1-deficient mesenchymal cells. •FGF7 produced by mesenchymal stromal cells is a novel hematopoietic niche molecule. •FGF7 supports hematopoietic progenitor cells and niche-dependent leukemia cells. •FGF7 activates FGFR2IIIb of bone marrow stromal cells in an autocrine manner. •FGF7 indirectly acts on hematopoietic cells lacking FGFR2IIIb via stromal cells. -- Abstract: FGF1 and FGF2 support hematopoietic stem and progenitor cells (HSPCs) under stress conditions. In this study, we show that fibroblast growth factor (FGF7) may be a novel niche factor for HSPC support and leukemic growth. FGF7 expression was attenuated in mouse embryonic fibroblasts (MEFs) deficient for the MED1 subunit of the Mediator transcriptional coregulator complex. When normal mouse bone marrow (BM) cells were cocultured with Med1 +/+ MEFs or BM stromal cells in the presence of anti-FGF7 antibody, the growth of BM cells and the number of long-time culture-initiating cells (LTC-ICs) decreased significantly. Anti-FGF7 antibody also attenuated the proliferation and cobblestone formation of MB1 stromal cell-dependent myeloblastoma cells. The addition of recombinant FGF7 to the coculture of BM cells and Med1 −/− MEFs increased BM cells and LTC-ICs. FGF7 and its cognate receptor, FGFR2IIIb, were undetectable in BM cells, but MEFs and BM stromal cells expressed both. FGF7 activated downstream targets of FGFR2IIIb in Med1 +/+ and Med1 −/− MEFs and BM stromal cells. Taken together, we propose that FGF7 supports HSPCs and leukemia-initiating cells indirectly via FGFR2IIIb expressed on stromal cells

Biotin increases glucokinase expression via soluble guanylate cyclase/protein kinase G, adenosine triphosphate production and autocrine action of insulin in pancreatic rat islets.

Science.gov (United States)

Vilches-Flores, Alonso; Tovar, Armando R; Marin-Hernandez, Alvaro; Rojas-Ochoa, Alberto; Fernandez-Mejia, Cristina

2010-07-01

Besides its role as a carboxylase prosthetic group, biotin has important effects on gene expression. However, the molecular mechanisms through which biotin exerts these effects are largely unknown. We previously found that biotin increases pancreatic glucokinase expression. We have now explored the mechanisms underlying this effect. Pancreatic islets from Wistar rats were treated with biotin, in the presence or absence of different types of inhibitors. Glucokinase mRNA and 18s rRNA abundance were determined by real-time PCR. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) content was analyzed by fluorometry. Biotin treatment increased glucokinase mRNA abundance approximately one fold after 2 h; the effect was sustained up to 24 h. Inhibition of soluble guanylate cyclase or protein kinase G (PKG) signalling suppressed biotin-induced glucokinase expression. The cascade of events downstream of PKG in biotin-mediated gene transcription is not known. We found that inhibition of insulin secretion with diazoxide or nifedipine prevented biotin-stimulated glucokinase mRNA increase. Biotin treatment increased islet ATP content (control: 4.68+/-0.28; biotin treated: 6.62+/-0.26 pmol/islet) at 30 min. Inhibition of PKG activity suppressed the effects of biotin on ATP content. Insulin antibodies or inhibitors of phosphoinositol-3-kinase/Akt insulin signalling pathway prevented biotin-induced glucokinase expression. The nucleotide 8-Br-cGMP mimicked the biotin effects. We propose that the induction of pancreatic glucokinase mRNA by biotin involves guanylate cyclase and PKG activation, which leads to an increase in ATP content. This induces insulin secretion via ATP-sensitive potassium channels. Autocrine insulin, in turn, activates phosphoinositol-3-kinase/Akt signalling. Our results offer new insights into the pathways that participate in biotin-mediated gene expression. (c) 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Microsomal Prostaglandin E Synthase-1 Facilitates an Intercellular Interaction between CD4⁺ T Cells through IL-1β Autocrine Function in Experimental Autoimmune Encephalomyelitis.

Science.gov (United States)

Takemiya, Takako; Takeuchi, Chisen; Kawakami, Marumi

2017-12-19

Microsomal prostaglandin synthetase-1 (mPGES-1) is an inducible terminal enzyme that produces prostaglandin E₂ (PGE₂). In our previous study, we investigated the role of mPGES-1 in the inflammation and demyelination observed in experimental autoimmune encephalomyelitis (EAE), an animal model of multiple sclerosis, using mPGES - 1 -deficient ( mPGES-1 -/- ) and wild-type (wt) mice. We found that mPGES-1 facilitated inflammation, demyelination, and paralysis and was induced in vascular endothelial cells and macrophages and microglia around inflammatory foci. Here, we investigated the role of interleukin-1β (IL-1β) in the intercellular mechanism stimulated by mPGES-1 in EAE spinal cords in the presence of inflammation. We found that the area invaded by CD4-positive (CD4⁺) T cells was extensive, and that PGE₂ receptors EP1-4 were more induced in activated CD4⁺ T cells of wt mice than in those of mPGES - 1 -/- mice. Moreover, IL-1β and IL-1 receptor 1 (IL-1r1) were produced by 65% and 48% of CD4⁺ T cells in wt mice and by 44% and 27% of CD4⁺ T cells in mPGES-1 -/- mice. Furthermore, interleukin-17 (IL-17) was released from the activated CD4⁺ T cells. Therefore, mPGES-1 stimulates an intercellular interaction between CD4⁺ T cells by upregulating the autocrine function of IL-1β in activated CD4⁺ T cells, which release IL-17 to facilitate axonal and myelin damage in EAE mice.

Autocrine Acetylcholine, Induced by IL-17A via NFκB and ERK1/2 Pathway Activation, Promotes MUC5AC and IL-8 Synthesis in Bronchial Epithelial Cells

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Angela Marina Montalbano

2016-01-01

Full Text Available IL-17A is overexpressed in the lung during acute neutrophilic inflammation. Acetylcholine (ACh increases IL-8 and Muc5AC production in airway epithelial cells. We aimed to characterize the involvement of nonneuronal components of cholinergic system on IL-8 and Muc5AC production in bronchial epithelial cells stimulated with IL-17A. Bronchial epithelial cells were stimulated with recombinant human IL-17A (rhIL-17A to evaluate the ChAT expression, the ACh binding and production, the IL-8 release, and the Muc5AC production. Furthermore, the effectiveness of PD098,059 (inhibitor of MAPKK activation, Bay11-7082 (inhibitor of IkBα phosphorylation, Hemicholinium-3 (HCh-3 (choline uptake blocker, and Tiotropium bromide (Spiriva® (anticholinergic drug was tested in our in vitro model. We showed that rhIL-17A increased the expression of ChAT, the levels of ACh binding and production, and the IL-8 and Muc5AC production in stimulated bronchial epithelial cells compared with untreated cells. The pretreatment of the cells with PD098,059 and Bay11-7082 decreased the ChAT expression and the ACh production/binding, while HCh-3 and Tiotropium decreased the IL-8 and Muc5AC synthesis in bronchial epithelial cells stimulated with rhIL-17A. IL-17A is involved in the IL-8 and Muc5AC production promoting, via NFκB and ERK1/2 pathway activation, the synthesis of ChAT, and the related activity of autocrine ACh in bronchial epithelial cells.

Receptor interactive protein kinase 3 promotes Cisplatin-triggered necrosis in apoptosis-resistant esophageal squamous cell carcinoma cells.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Xu

Full Text Available Cisplatin-based chemotherapy is currently the standard treatment for locally advanced esophageal cancer. Cisplatin has been shown to induce both apoptosis and necrosis in cancer cells, but the mechanism by which programmed necrosis is induced remains unknown. In this study, we provide evidence that cisplatin induces necrotic cell death in apoptosis-resistant esophageal cancer cells. This cell death is dependent on RIPK3 and on necrosome formation via autocrine production of TNFα. More importantly, we demonstrate that RIPK3 is necessary for cisplatin-induced killing of esophageal cancer cells because inhibition of RIPK1 activity by necrostatin or knockdown of RIPK3 significantly attenuates necrosis and leads to cisplatin resistance. Moreover, microarray analysis confirmed an anti-apoptotic molecular expression pattern in esophageal cancer cells in response to cisplatin. Taken together, our data indicate that RIPK3 and autocrine production of TNFα contribute to cisplatin sensitivity by initiating necrosis when the apoptotic pathway is suppressed or absent in esophageal cancer cells. These data provide new insight into the molecular mechanisms underlying cisplatin-induced necrosis and suggest that RIPK3 is a potential marker for predicting cisplatin sensitivity in apoptosis-resistant and advanced esophageal cancer.

Interleukin-8 (IL-8) over-production and autocrine cell activation are key factors in monomethylarsonous acid [MMA(III)]-induced malignant transformation of urothelial cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Escudero-Lourdes, C.; Wu, T.; Camarillo, J.M.; Gandolfi, A.J.

2012-01-01

The association between chronic human exposure to arsenicals and bladder cancer development is well recognized; however, the underlying molecular mechanisms have not been fully determined. We propose that inflammatory responses can play a pathogenic role in arsenic-related bladder carcinogenesis. In previous studies, it was demonstrated that chronic exposure to 50 nM monomethylarsenous acid [MMA(III)] leads to malignant transformation of an immortalized model of urothelial cells (UROtsa), with only 3 mo of exposure necessary to trigger the transformation-related changes. In the three-month window of exposure, the cells over-expressed pro-inflammatory cytokines (IL-1β, IL-6 and IL-8), consistent with the sustained activation of NFKβ and AP1/c-jun, ERK2, and STAT3. IL-8 was over-expressed within hours after exposure to MMA(III), and sustained over-expression was observed during chronic exposure. In this study, we profiled IL-8 expression in UROtsa cells exposed to 50 nM MMA(III) for 1 to 5 mo. IL-8 expression was increased mainly in cells after 3 mo MMA(III) exposure, and its production was also found increased in tumors derived from these cells after heterotransplantation in SCID mice. UROtsa cells do express both receptors, CXCR1 and CXCR2, suggesting that autocrine cell activation could be important in cell transformation. Supporting this observation and consistent with IL-8 over-expression, CXCR1 internalization was significantly increased after three months of exposure to MMA(III). The expression of MMP-9, cyclin D1, bcl-2, and VGEF was significantly increased in cells exposed to MMA(III) for 3 mo, but these mitogen-activated kinases were significantly decreased after IL-8 gene silencing, together with a decrease in cell proliferation rate and in anchorage-independent colony formation. These results suggest a relevant role of IL-8 in MMA(III)-induced UROtsa cell transformation. -- Highlights: ► IL-8 is over-expressed in human MMA(III)-exposed urothelial

Annexin A2 and its downstream IL-6 and HB-EGF as secretory biomarkers in the differential diagnosis of Her-2 negative breast cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Shetty, Praveenkumar; Patil, Vidya S; Mohan, Rajashekar; D'souza, Leonard Clinton; Bargale, Anil; Patil, Basavaraj R; Dinesh, U S; Haridas, Vikram; Kulkarni, Shrirang P

2017-07-01

Background AnnexinA2 (AnxA2) membrane deposition has a critical role in HB-EGF shedding as well as IL-6 secretion in breast cancer cells. This autocrine cycle has a major role in cancer cell proliferation, migration and metastasis. The objective of the study is to demonstrate annexinA2-mediated autocrine regulation via HB-EGF and IL-6 in Her-2 negative breast cancer progression. Methods Secretory annexinA2, HB-EGF and IL-6 were analysed in the peripheral blood sample of Her-2 negative ( n = 20) and positive breast cancer patients ( n = 16). Simultaneously, tissue expression was analysed by immunohistochemistry. The membrane deposition of these secretory ligands and their autocrine regulation was demonstrated using triple-negative breast cancer cell line model. Results Annexina2 and HB-EGF expression are inversely correlated with Her-2, whereas IL-6 expression is seen in both Her-2 negative and positive breast cancer cells. RNA interference studies and upregulation of annexinA2 proved that annexinA2 is the upstream of this autocrine pathway. Abundant soluble serum annexinA2 is secreted in Her-2 negative breast cancer (359.28 ± 63.73 ng/mL) compared with normal (286.10 ± 70.04 ng/mL, P breast cancer phenotypes as compared with normal ( P breast cancer tissues, increased secretion compared with normal cells, and their major role in the regulation of EGFR downstream signalling makes these molecules as a potential tissue and serum biomarker and an excellent therapeutic target in Her-2 negative breast cancer.

Cell-autonomous intracellular androgen receptor signaling drives the growth of human prostate cancer initiating cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Vander Griend, Donald J; D'Antonio, Jason; Gurel, Bora; Antony, Lizamma; Demarzo, Angelo M; Isaacs, John T

2010-01-01

The lethality of prostate cancer is due to the continuous growth of cancer initiating cells (CICs) which are often stimulated by androgen receptor (AR) signaling. However, the underlying molecular mechanism(s) for such AR-mediated growth stimulation are not fully understood. Such mechanisms may involve cancer cell-dependent induction of tumor stromal cells to produce paracrine growth factors or could involve cancer cell autonomous autocrine and/or intracellular AR signaling pathways. We utilized clinical samples, animal models and a series of AR-positive human prostate cancer cell lines to evaluate AR-mediated growth stimulation of prostate CICs. The present studies document that stromal AR expression is not required for prostate cancer growth, since tumor stroma surrounding AR-positive human prostate cancer metastases (N = 127) are characteristically AR-negative. This lack of a requirement for AR expression in tumor stromal cells is also documented by the fact that human AR-positive prostate cancer cells grow equally well when xenografted in wild-type versus AR-null nude mice. AR-dependent growth stimulation was documented to involve secretion, extracellular binding, and signaling by autocrine growth factors. Orthotopic xenograft animal studies documented that the cellautonomous autocrine growth factors which stimulate prostate CIC growth are not the andromedins secreted by normal prostate stromal cells. Such cell autonomous and extracellular autocrine signaling is necessary but not sufficient for the optimal growth of prostate CICs based upon the response to anti-androgen plus/or minus preconditioned media. AR-induced growth stimulation of human prostate CICs requires AR-dependent intracellular pathways. The identification of such AR-dependent intracellular pathways offers new leads for the development of effective therapies for prostate cancer. (c) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Endothelin-3 production by human rhabdomyosarcoma: a possible new marker with a paracrine role.

Science.gov (United States)

Palladini, Arianna; Astolfi, Annalisa; Croci, Stefania; De Giovanni, Carla; Nicoletti, Giordano; Rosolen, Angelo; Sartori, Francesca; Lollini, Pier-Luigi; Landuzzi, Lorena; Nanni, Patrizia

2006-03-01

Several autocrine and paracrine growth factor circuits have been found in human rhabdomyosarcoma cells. In this study we show that endothelin-3 (ET-3), a vasoactive peptide, is produced by human rhabdomyosarcoma cell lines, whereas it is not expressed by human sarcoma cell lines of non-muscle origin. We did not find evidence of a significant autocrine loop; nevertheless ET-3 produced by rhabdomyosarcoma cells can act as a paracrine factor, since it promotes migration of endothelial cells. Moreover ET-3 is present in plasma of mice bearing xenografts of human rhabdomyosarcoma cells, and may be potential new marker of the human rhabdomyosarcoma to be studied further.

Making detailed predictions makes (some) predictions worse

Science.gov (United States)

Kelly, Theresa F.

In this paper, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event makes other predictions worse. Across 19 experiments, 10,895 participants, and 415,960 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes information that is relatively useless for predicting the winning team more readily accessible in memory and therefore incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of games will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions.

Functional similarities between the dictyostelium protein AprA and the human protein dipeptidyl-peptidase IV.

Science.gov (United States)

Herlihy, Sarah E; Tang, Yu; Phillips, Jonathan E; Gomer, Richard H

2017-03-01

Autocrine proliferation repressor protein A (AprA) is a protein secreted by Dictyostelium discoideum cells. Although there is very little sequence similarity between AprA and any human protein, AprA has a predicted structural similarity to the human protein dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPPIV). AprA is a chemorepellent for Dictyostelium cells, and DPPIV is a chemorepellent for neutrophils. This led us to investigate if AprA and DPPIV have additional functional similarities. We find that like AprA, DPPIV is a chemorepellent for, and inhibits the proliferation of, D. discoideum cells, and that AprA binds some DPPIV binding partners such as fibronectin. Conversely, rAprA has DPPIV-like protease activity. These results indicate a functional similarity between two eukaryotic chemorepellent proteins with very little sequence similarity, and emphasize the usefulness of using a predicted protein structure to search a protein structure database, in addition to searching for proteins with similar sequences. © 2016 The Protein Society.

Functional similarities between the dictyostelium protein AprA and the human protein dipeptidyl‐peptidase IV

Science.gov (United States)

Herlihy, Sarah E.; Tang, Yu; Phillips, Jonathan E.

2017-01-01

Abstract Autocrine proliferation repressor protein A (AprA) is a protein secreted by Dictyostelium discoideum cells. Although there is very little sequence similarity between AprA and any human protein, AprA has a predicted structural similarity to the human protein dipeptidyl peptidase IV (DPPIV). AprA is a chemorepellent for Dictyostelium cells, and DPPIV is a chemorepellent for neutrophils. This led us to investigate if AprA and DPPIV have additional functional similarities. We find that like AprA, DPPIV is a chemorepellent for, and inhibits the proliferation of, D. discoideum cells, and that AprA binds some DPPIV binding partners such as fibronectin. Conversely, rAprA has DPPIV‐like protease activity. These results indicate a functional similarity between two eukaryotic chemorepellent proteins with very little sequence similarity, and emphasize the usefulness of using a predicted protein structure to search a protein structure database, in addition to searching for proteins with similar sequences. PMID:28028841

Autocrine Signaling by Wnt-5a Deregulates Chemotaxis of Leukemic Cells and Predicts Clinical Outcome in Chronic Lymphocytic Leukemia

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Janovská, P.; Poppová, L.; Plevová, K.; Plesingerova, E.; Behal, M.; Kaucká, M.; Ovesná, P.; Hlozkova, M.; Borský, M.; Stehlíková, O.; Brychtová, Y.; Doubek, M.; Machalova, M.; Baskar, S.; Kozubík, Alois; Pospíšilová, Š.; Pavlová, Š.; Bryja, Vítězslav

2016-01-01

Roč. 22, č. 2 (2016), s. 459-469 ISSN 1078-0432 Institutional support: RVO:68081707 Keywords : receptor tyrosine kinase * cd38 expression * mutation status * cll cells Subject RIV: BO - Biophysics Impact factor: 9.619, year: 2016

Bootstrap prediction and Bayesian prediction under misspecified models

OpenAIRE

Fushiki, Tadayoshi

2005-01-01

We consider a statistical prediction problem under misspecified models. In a sense, Bayesian prediction is an optimal prediction method when an assumed model is true. Bootstrap prediction is obtained by applying Breiman's `bagging' method to a plug-in prediction. Bootstrap prediction can be considered to be an approximation to the Bayesian prediction under the assumption that the model is true. However, in applications, there are frequently deviations from the assumed model. In this paper, bo...

Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface

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Li Bin

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. Results We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm, is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. Conclusion We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

Protein docking prediction using predicted protein-protein interface.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Bin; Kihara, Daisuke

2012-01-10

Many important cellular processes are carried out by protein complexes. To provide physical pictures of interacting proteins, many computational protein-protein prediction methods have been developed in the past. However, it is still difficult to identify the correct docking complex structure within top ranks among alternative conformations. We present a novel protein docking algorithm that utilizes imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction for guiding protein docking. Since the accuracy of protein binding site prediction varies depending on cases, the challenge is to develop a method which does not deteriorate but improves docking results by using a binding site prediction which may not be 100% accurate. The algorithm, named PI-LZerD (using Predicted Interface with Local 3D Zernike descriptor-based Docking algorithm), is based on a pair wise protein docking prediction algorithm, LZerD, which we have developed earlier. PI-LZerD starts from performing docking prediction using the provided protein-protein binding interface prediction as constraints, which is followed by the second round of docking with updated docking interface information to further improve docking conformation. Benchmark results on bound and unbound cases show that PI-LZerD consistently improves the docking prediction accuracy as compared with docking without using binding site prediction or using the binding site prediction as post-filtering. We have developed PI-LZerD, a pairwise docking algorithm, which uses imperfect protein-protein binding interface prediction to improve docking accuracy. PI-LZerD consistently showed better prediction accuracy over alternative methods in the series of benchmark experiments including docking using actual docking interface site predictions as well as unbound docking cases.

WALS Prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Magnus, J.R.; Wang, W.; Zhang, Xinyu

2012-01-01

Abstract: Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty

Data-Based Predictive Control with Multirate Prediction Step

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Barlow, Jonathan S.

2010-01-01

Data-based predictive control is an emerging control method that stems from Model Predictive Control (MPC). MPC computes current control action based on a prediction of the system output a number of time steps into the future and is generally derived from a known model of the system. Data-based predictive control has the advantage of deriving predictive models and controller gains from input-output data. Thus, a controller can be designed from the outputs of complex simulation code or a physical system where no explicit model exists. If the output data happens to be corrupted by periodic disturbances, the designed controller will also have the built-in ability to reject these disturbances without the need to know them. When data-based predictive control is implemented online, it becomes a version of adaptive control. One challenge of MPC is computational requirements increasing with prediction horizon length. This paper develops a closed-loop dynamic output feedback controller that minimizes a multi-step-ahead receding-horizon cost function with multirate prediction step. One result is a reduced influence of prediction horizon and the number of system outputs on the computational requirements of the controller. Another result is an emphasis on portions of the prediction window that are sampled more frequently. A third result is the ability to include more outputs in the feedback path than in the cost function.

Transcriptome atlas of eight liver cell types uncovers effects of ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

2010-12-06

Dec 6, 2010 ... by autocrine or paracrine systems can reduce antigen present- ing capacity of immune cells, ... polypeptide (GNAQ), glycosylphosphatidylinositol specific phosphorlipase C ...... profiling of prostate cancer. BMC Mol. Biol. 8, 25.

Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control

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Sadhana CHIDRAWAR

2008-12-01

Full Text Available As Model Predictive Control (MPC relies on the predictive Control using a multilayer feed forward network as the plants linear model is presented. In using Newton-Raphson as the optimization algorithm, the number of iterations needed for convergence is significantly reduced from other techniques. This paper presents a detailed derivation of the Generalized Predictive Control and Neural Generalized Predictive Control with Newton-Raphson as minimization algorithm. Taking three separate systems, performances of the system has been tested. Simulation results show the effect of neural network on Generalized Predictive Control. The performance comparison of this three system configurations has been given in terms of ISE and IAE.

Recently activated naive CD4 T cells can help resting B cells, and can produce sufficient autocrine IL-4 to drive differentiation to secretion of T helper 2-type cytokines.

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Croft, M; Swain, S L

1995-05-01

and provide cognate help to B cells. They also suggest that if activated naive CD4 cells receive multiple stimulations from Ag/APC, enough endogenous IL-4 can be produced to drive differentiation into effectors secreting type 2 cytokines. The existence of such an autocrine feedback mechanism suggests that the amount and availability of Ag could influence the nature and polarization of the Th response.

Predicting outdoor sound

CERN Document Server

Attenborough, Keith; Horoshenkov, Kirill

2014-01-01

1. Introduction  2. The Propagation of Sound Near Ground Surfaces in a Homogeneous Medium  3. Predicting the Acoustical Properties of Outdoor Ground Surfaces  4. Measurements of the Acoustical Properties of Ground Surfaces and Comparisons with Models  5. Predicting Effects of Source Characteristics on Outdoor Sound  6. Predictions, Approximations and Empirical Results for Ground Effect Excluding Meteorological Effects  7. Influence of Source Motion on Ground Effect and Diffraction  8. Predicting Effects of Mixed Impedance Ground  9. Predicting the Performance of Outdoor Noise Barriers  10. Predicting Effects of Vegetation, Trees and Turbulence  11. Analytical Approximations including Ground Effect, Refraction and Turbulence  12. Prediction Schemes  13. Predicting Sound in an Urban Environment.

The heparin-binding domain of HB-EGF mediates localization to sites of cell-cell contact and prevents HB-EGF proteolytic release

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prince, Robin N.; Schreiter, Eric R.; Zou, Peng; Wiley, H. S.; Ting, Alice Y.; Lee, Richard T.; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.

2010-07-01

Heparin-binding EGF-like growth factor (HB-EGF) is a ligand for EGF receptor (EGFR) and possesses the ability to signal in juxtacrine, autocrine and/or paracrine mode, with these alternatives being governed by the degree of proteolytic release of the ligand. Although the spatial range of diffusion of released HB-EGF is restricted by binding heparan-sulfate proteoglycans (HSPGs) in the extracellular matrix and/or cellular glycocalyx, ascertaining mechanisms governing non-released HB-EGF localization is also important for understanding its effects. We have employed a new method for independently tracking the localization of the extracellular EGFlike domain of HB-EGF and the cytoplasmic C-terminus. A striking observation was the absence of the HB-EGF transmembrane proform from the leading edge of COS-7 cells in a wound-closure assay; instead, this protein localized in regions of cell-cell contact. A battery of detailed experiments found that this localization derives from a trans interaction between extracellular HSPGs and the HBEGF heparin-binding domain, and that disruption of this interaction leads to increased release of soluble ligand and a switch in cell phenotype from juxtacrine-induced growth inhibition to autocrine-induced proliferation. Our results indicate that extracellular HSPGs serve to sequester the transmembrane pro-form of HB-EGF at the point of cell-cell contact, and that this plays a role in governing the balance between juxtacrine versus autocrine and paracrine signaling.

Upregulating Nonneuronal Cholinergic Activity Decreases TNF Release from Lipopolysaccharide-Stimulated RAW264.7 Cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yi Lv

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Nonneuronal cholinergic system plays a primary role in maintaining homeostasis. It has been proved that endogenous neuronal acetylcholine (ACh could play an anti-inflammatory role, and exogenous cholinergic agonists could weaken macrophages inflammatory response to lipopolysaccharide (LPS stimulation through activation of α7 subunit-containing nicotinic acetylcholine receptor (α7nAChR. We assumed that nonneuronal cholinergic system existing in macrophages could modulate inflammation through autocrine ACh and expressed α7nAChR on the cells. Therefore, we explored whether LPS continuous stimulation could upregulate the nonneuronal cholinergic activity in macrophages and whether increasing autocrine ACh could decrease TNF release from the macrophages. The results showed that, in RAW264.7 cells incubated with LPS for 20 hours, the secretion of ACh was significantly decreased at 4 h and then gradually increased, accompanied with the enhancement of α7nAChR expression level. The release of TNF was greatly increased from RAW264.7 cells at 4 h and 8 h exposure to LPS; however, it was suppressed at 20 h. Upregulating choline acetyltransferase (ChAT expression through ChAT gene transfection could enhance ACh secretion and reduce TNF release from the infected RAW264. 7cells. The results indicated that LPS stimulation could modulate the activity of nonneuronal cholinergic system of RAW264.7 cells. Enhancing autocrine ACh production could attenuate TNF release from RAW264.7 cells.

Prediction-error of Prediction Error (PPE)-based Reversible Data Hiding

OpenAIRE

Wu, Han-Zhou; Wang, Hong-Xia; Shi, Yun-Qing

2016-01-01

This paper presents a novel reversible data hiding (RDH) algorithm for gray-scaled images, in which the prediction-error of prediction error (PPE) of a pixel is used to carry the secret data. In the proposed method, the pixels to be embedded are firstly predicted with their neighboring pixels to obtain the corresponding prediction errors (PEs). Then, by exploiting the PEs of the neighboring pixels, the prediction of the PEs of the pixels can be determined. And, a sorting technique based on th...

Predictability and Prediction for an Experimental Cultural Market

Science.gov (United States)

Colbaugh, Richard; Glass, Kristin; Ormerod, Paul

Individuals are often influenced by the behavior of others, for instance because they wish to obtain the benefits of coordinated actions or infer otherwise inaccessible information. In such situations this social influence decreases the ex ante predictability of the ensuing social dynamics. We claim that, interestingly, these same social forces can increase the extent to which the outcome of a social process can be predicted very early in the process. This paper explores this claim through a theoretical and empirical analysis of the experimental music market described and analyzed in [1]. We propose a very simple model for this music market, assess the predictability of market outcomes through formal analysis of the model, and use insights derived through this analysis to develop algorithms for predicting market share winners, and their ultimate market shares, in the very early stages of the market. The utility of these predictive algorithms is illustrated through analysis of the experimental music market data sets [2].

Cytokine loops driving senescence

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Bartek, Jiří; Hodný, Zdeněk; Lukáš, Jan

2008-01-01

Roč. 10, č. 8 (2008), s. 887-889 ISSN 1465-7392 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50520514 Keywords : cellular senescence * cytokines * autocrine feedback loop Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 17.774, year: 2008

Earthquake prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ward, P.L.

1978-01-01

The state of the art of earthquake prediction is summarized, the possible responses to such prediction are examined, and some needs in the present prediction program and in research related to use of this new technology are reviewed. Three basic aspects of earthquake prediction are discussed: location of the areas where large earthquakes are most likely to occur, observation within these areas of measurable changes (earthquake precursors) and determination of the area and time over which the earthquake will occur, and development of models of the earthquake source in order to interpret the precursors reliably. 6 figures

Autocrine and Paracrine Hh Signaling Regulate Prostate Development

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-01

Rev. Mol. Cell. Biol. 6, 306–317 7. Wang, B. E., Shou, J., Ross, S., Koeppen, H., De Sauvage, F. J., and Gao, W. Q. (2003) J. Biol. Chem. 278, 18506...and Placzek, M. (2006) Nat. Rev. Genet. 7, 841–850 13. Callahan, C. A., Ofstad, T., Horng, L.,Wang, J. K., Zhen, H. H., Coulombe , P. A., and Oro, A. E...Albig, A. R., and Schiemann, W. P. (2005)Mol. Biol. Cell 16, 609–625 45. Olsen, M. W., Ley , C. D., Junker, N., Hansen, A. J., Lund, E. L., and Krist

Similarities and Differences Between Warped Linear Prediction and Laguerre Linear Prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Brinker, Albertus C. den; Krishnamoorthi, Harish; Verbitskiy, Evgeny A.

2011-01-01

Linear prediction has been successfully applied in many speech and audio processing systems. This paper presents the similarities and differences between two classes of linear prediction schemes, namely, Warped Linear Prediction (WLP) and Laguerre Linear Prediction (LLP). It is shown that both

Predictive Manufacturing: A Classification Strategy to Predict Product Failures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Abdul Rauf; Schiøler, Henrik; Kulahci, Murat

2018-01-01

manufacturing analytics model that employs a big data approach to predicting product failures; third, we illustrate the issue of high dimensionality, along with statistically redundant information; and, finally, our proposed method will be compared against the well-known classification methods (SVM, K......-nearest neighbor, artificial neural networks). The results from real data show that our predictive manufacturing analytics approach, using genetic algorithms and Voronoi tessellations, is capable of predicting product failure with reasonable accuracy. The potential application of this method contributes...... to accurately predicting product failures, which would enable manufacturers to reduce production costs without compromising product quality....

Applied predictive control

CERN Document Server

Sunan, Huang; Heng, Lee Tong

2002-01-01

The presence of considerable time delays in the dynamics of many industrial processes, leading to difficult problems in the associated closed-loop control systems, is a well-recognized phenomenon. The performance achievable in conventional feedback control systems can be significantly degraded if an industrial process has a relatively large time delay compared with the dominant time constant. Under these circumstances, advanced predictive control is necessary to improve the performance of the control system significantly. The book is a focused treatment of the subject matter, including the fundamentals and some state-of-the-art developments in the field of predictive control. Three main schemes for advanced predictive control are addressed in this book: • Smith Predictive Control; • Generalised Predictive Control; • a form of predictive control based on Finite Spectrum Assignment. A substantial part of the book addresses application issues in predictive control, providing several interesting case studie...

Engineered FGF-2 expression induces glandular epithelial hyperplasia in the murine prostatic dorsal lobe.

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Takahashi, N.; Takeuchi, T.; Nishimatsu, H.; Kamijo, T.; Tomita, K.; Schalken, J.A.; Teshima, S.; Kitamura, T.

2004-01-01

OBJECTIVE: It is known that androgens and stromal-epithelial interactions are required for the formation and growth of the prostate. FGF-2 is overexpressed in prostatic stromal cells in benign prostatic hypertrophy (BPH)/prostate cancer. This supports the paracrine/autocrine growth of prostatic

Effects of protein kinase C activators and staurosporine on protein kinase activity, cell survival, and proliferation in Tetrahymena thermophila

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Straarup, EM; Schousboe, P; Hansen, HQ

1997-01-01

Autocrine factors prevent cell death in the ciliate Tetrahymena thermophila, a unicellular eukaryote, in a chemically defined medium. At certain growth conditions these factors are released at a sufficient concentration by > 500 cells ml-1 to support cell survival and proliferation. The protein...

Development of a regional ensemble prediction method for probabilistic weather prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nohara, Daisuke; Tamura, Hidetoshi; Hirakuchi, Hiromaru

2015-01-01

A regional ensemble prediction method has been developed to provide probabilistic weather prediction using a numerical weather prediction model. To obtain consistent perturbations with the synoptic weather pattern, both of initial and lateral boundary perturbations were given by differences between control and ensemble member of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA)'s operational one-week ensemble forecast. The method provides a multiple ensemble member with a horizontal resolution of 15 km for 48-hour based on a downscaling of the JMA's operational global forecast accompanied with the perturbations. The ensemble prediction was examined in the case of heavy snow fall event in Kanto area on January 14, 2013. The results showed that the predictions represent different features of high-resolution spatiotemporal distribution of precipitation affected by intensity and location of extra-tropical cyclone in each ensemble member. Although the ensemble prediction has model bias of mean values and variances in some variables such as wind speed and solar radiation, the ensemble prediction has a potential to append a probabilistic information to a deterministic prediction. (author)

Ionizing radiation activates vascular endothelial growth factor-A transcription in human umbilical vein endothelial cells

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Hyounji; Kim, Kwang Seok; Jeong, Jae Hoon; Lim, Young Bin [Radiation Cancer Biology Team, Korea Institute of Radiological and Medical Sciences, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

Vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) is an essential paracrine factor for developmental and pathological angiogenesis. VEGF also exerts its effects in an autocrine manner in VEGF-producing cells. For instance, autocrine VEGF signaling occurs in tumor cells and contributes to key aspects of tumorigenesis, such as in the function of cancer stem cells and tumor initiation, which are independent of angiogenesis. In addition to tumors cells, non-transformed cells also express VEGF. For example, a VEGF dependent intracellular autocrine mechanism is crucial for the survival of hematopoietic stem cells and hematopoiesis. Stereotactic body radiation therapy (SBRT) is a novel treatment modality for early primary cancer and oligometastatic disease. SBRT delivers high-dose hypofractionated radiation, such as 20-60 Gy, to tumors in a single fraction or 2-5 fractions. As VEGF is a critical regulator of functional integrity and viability of vascular endothelial cells, we examined whether high-dose irradiation alters VEGF signaling by measuring the expression levels of VEGFA transcript. It is generally believed that endothelial cells do not produce VEGF in response to radiation. In present study, however, we provide the first demonstration of transcriptional regulation of VEGFA in human vascular endothelial cells by IR treatment. Irradiation with doses higher than 10 Gy in a single exposure triggers up-regulation of VEGFA transcription within 2 hours in HUVECs, whereas irradiation with 10 Gy does not alter VEGFA levels. Our data have shown that high-dose irradiation triggers immediate transactivation of VEGFA in human vascular endothelial cells.

Quantitative Analysis of Human Pluripotency and Neural Specification by In-Depth (PhosphoProteomic Profiling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ilyas Singec

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Controlled differentiation of human embryonic stem cells (hESCs can be utilized for precise analysis of cell type identities during early development. We established a highly efficient neural induction strategy and an improved analytical platform, and determined proteomic and phosphoproteomic profiles of hESCs and their specified multipotent neural stem cell derivatives (hNSCs. This quantitative dataset (nearly 13,000 proteins and 60,000 phosphorylation sites provides unique molecular insights into pluripotency and neural lineage entry. Systems-level comparative analysis of proteins (e.g., transcription factors, epigenetic regulators, kinase families, phosphorylation sites, and numerous biological pathways allowed the identification of distinct signatures in pluripotent and multipotent cells. Furthermore, as predicted by the dataset, we functionally validated an autocrine/paracrine mechanism by demonstrating that the secreted protein midkine is a regulator of neural specification. This resource is freely available to the scientific community, including a searchable website, PluriProt.

Reliability of windstorm predictions in the ECMWF ensemble prediction system

Science.gov (United States)

Becker, Nico; Ulbrich, Uwe

2016-04-01

Windstorms caused by extratropical cyclones are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in the European region. Therefore, reliable predictions of such storm events are needed. Case studies have shown that ensemble prediction systems (EPS) are able to provide useful information about windstorms between two and five days prior to the event. In this work, ensemble predictions with the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) EPS are evaluated in a four year period. Within the 50 ensemble members, which are initialized every 12 hours and are run for 10 days, windstorms are identified and tracked in time and space. By using a clustering approach, different predictions of the same storm are identified in the different ensemble members and compared to reanalysis data. The occurrence probability of the predicted storms is estimated by fitting a bivariate normal distribution to the storm track positions. Our results show, for example, that predicted storm clusters with occurrence probabilities of more than 50% have a matching observed storm in 80% of all cases at a lead time of two days. The predicted occurrence probabilities are reliable up to 3 days lead time. At longer lead times the occurrence probabilities are overestimated by the EPS.

Accurate and dynamic predictive model for better prediction in medicine and healthcare.

Science.gov (United States)

Alanazi, H O; Abdullah, A H; Qureshi, K N; Ismail, A S

2018-05-01

Information and communication technologies (ICTs) have changed the trend into new integrated operations and methods in all fields of life. The health sector has also adopted new technologies to improve the systems and provide better services to customers. Predictive models in health care are also influenced from new technologies to predict the different disease outcomes. However, still, existing predictive models have suffered from some limitations in terms of predictive outcomes performance. In order to improve predictive model performance, this paper proposed a predictive model by classifying the disease predictions into different categories. To achieve this model performance, this paper uses traumatic brain injury (TBI) datasets. TBI is one of the serious diseases worldwide and needs more attention due to its seriousness and serious impacts on human life. The proposed predictive model improves the predictive performance of TBI. The TBI data set is developed and approved by neurologists to set its features. The experiment results show that the proposed model has achieved significant results including accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity.

Computational prediction of protein-protein interactions in Leishmania predicted proteomes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio M Rezende

Full Text Available The Trypanosomatids parasites Leishmania braziliensis, Leishmania major and Leishmania infantum are important human pathogens. Despite of years of study and genome availability, effective vaccine has not been developed yet, and the chemotherapy is highly toxic. Therefore, it is clear just interdisciplinary integrated studies will have success in trying to search new targets for developing of vaccines and drugs. An essential part of this rationale is related to protein-protein interaction network (PPI study which can provide a better understanding of complex protein interactions in biological system. Thus, we modeled PPIs for Trypanosomatids through computational methods using sequence comparison against public database of protein or domain interaction for interaction prediction (Interolog Mapping and developed a dedicated combined system score to address the predictions robustness. The confidence evaluation of network prediction approach was addressed using gold standard positive and negative datasets and the AUC value obtained was 0.94. As result, 39,420, 43,531 and 45,235 interactions were predicted for L. braziliensis, L. major and L. infantum respectively. For each predicted network the top 20 proteins were ranked by MCC topological index. In addition, information related with immunological potential, degree of protein sequence conservation among orthologs and degree of identity compared to proteins of potential parasite hosts was integrated. This information integration provides a better understanding and usefulness of the predicted networks that can be valuable to select new potential biological targets for drug and vaccine development. Network modularity which is a key when one is interested in destabilizing the PPIs for drug or vaccine purposes along with multiple alignments of the predicted PPIs were performed revealing patterns associated with protein turnover. In addition, around 50% of hypothetical protein present in the networks

Specificity of secreted proteomes from cardiac stem cells and neonatal myocytes

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Šťastná, Miroslava; Chimenti, I.; Marban, E.; Van Eyk, J.

2009-01-01

Roč. 276, Suppl.1 (2009), s. 346 ISSN 1742-464X. [FEBS Congress /34./. 04.07.2009-09.07.2009, Prague] Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40310501 Keywords : cardiac stem cells * secreted paracrine/autocrine factors * proteomics Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation

Experimental models of testicular development and function using human tissue and cells

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tharmalingam, Melissa D; Jorgensen, Anne; Mitchell, Rod T

2018-01-01

. In this review, we outline experimental approaches used to sustain cells and tissue from human testis at different developmental time-points and discuss relevant end-points. These include survival, proliferation and differentiation of cell lineages within the testis as well as autocrine, paracrine and endocrine...

Circulating Follistatin Is Liver-Derived and Regulated by the Glucagon-to-Insulin Ratio

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Jakob S; Rutti, Sabine; Arous, Caroline

2016-01-01

CONTEXT: Follistatin is a plasma protein recently reported to increase under conditions with negative energy balance, such as exercise and fasting in humans. Currently, the perception is that circulating follistatin is a result of para/autocrine actions from various tissues. The large and acute i...

Predictive systems ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Matthew R; Bithell, Mike; Cornell, Stephen J; Dall, Sasha R X; Díaz, Sandra; Emmott, Stephen; Ernande, Bruno; Grimm, Volker; Hodgson, David J; Lewis, Simon L; Mace, Georgina M; Morecroft, Michael; Moustakas, Aristides; Murphy, Eugene; Newbold, Tim; Norris, K J; Petchey, Owen; Smith, Matthew; Travis, Justin M J; Benton, Tim G

2013-11-22

Human societies, and their well-being, depend to a significant extent on the state of the ecosystems that surround them. These ecosystems are changing rapidly usually in response to anthropogenic changes in the environment. To determine the likely impact of environmental change on ecosystems and the best ways to manage them, it would be desirable to be able to predict their future states. We present a proposal to develop the paradigm of predictive systems ecology, explicitly to understand and predict the properties and behaviour of ecological systems. We discuss the necessary and desirable features of predictive systems ecology models. There are places where predictive systems ecology is already being practised and we summarize a range of terrestrial and marine examples. Significant challenges remain but we suggest that ecology would benefit both as a scientific discipline and increase its impact in society if it were to embrace the need to become more predictive.

Predictable or not predictable? The MOV question

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thibault, C.L.; Matzkiw, J.N.; Anderson, J.W.; Kessler, D.W.

1994-01-01

Over the past 8 years, the nuclear industry has struggled to understand the dynamic phenomena experienced during motor-operated valve (MOV) operation under differing flow conditions. For some valves and designs, their operational functionality has been found to be predictable; for others, unpredictable. Although much has been accomplished over this period of time, especially on modeling valve dynamics, the unpredictability of many valves and designs still exists. A few valve manufacturers are focusing on improving design and fabrication techniques to enhance product reliability and predictability. However, this approach does not address these issues for installed and inpredictable valves. This paper presents some of the more promising techniques that Wyle Laboratories has explored with potential for transforming unpredictable valves to predictable valves and for retrofitting installed MOVs. These techniques include optimized valve tolerancing, surrogated material evaluation, and enhanced surface treatments

Neural Fuzzy Inference System-Based Weather Prediction Model and Its Precipitation Predicting Experiment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jing Lu

2014-11-01

Full Text Available We propose a weather prediction model in this article based on neural network and fuzzy inference system (NFIS-WPM, and then apply it to predict daily fuzzy precipitation given meteorological premises for testing. The model consists of two parts: the first part is the “fuzzy rule-based neural network”, which simulates sequential relations among fuzzy sets using artificial neural network; and the second part is the “neural fuzzy inference system”, which is based on the first part, but could learn new fuzzy rules from the previous ones according to the algorithm we proposed. NFIS-WPM (High Pro and NFIS-WPM (Ave are improved versions of this model. It is well known that the need for accurate weather prediction is apparent when considering the benefits. However, the excessive pursuit of accuracy in weather prediction makes some of the “accurate” prediction results meaningless and the numerical prediction model is often complex and time-consuming. By adapting this novel model to a precipitation prediction problem, we make the predicted outcomes of precipitation more accurate and the prediction methods simpler than by using the complex numerical forecasting model that would occupy large computation resources, be time-consuming and which has a low predictive accuracy rate. Accordingly, we achieve more accurate predictive precipitation results than by using traditional artificial neural networks that have low predictive accuracy.

Prediction of residential radon exposure of the whole Swiss population: comparison of model-based predictions with measurement-based predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Hauri, D D; Huss, A; Zimmermann, F; Kuehni, C E; Röösli, M

2013-10-01

Radon plays an important role for human exposure to natural sources of ionizing radiation. The aim of this article is to compare two approaches to estimate mean radon exposure in the Swiss population: model-based predictions at individual level and measurement-based predictions based on measurements aggregated at municipality level. A nationwide model was used to predict radon levels in each household and for each individual based on the corresponding tectonic unit, building age, building type, soil texture, degree of urbanization, and floor. Measurement-based predictions were carried out within a health impact assessment on residential radon and lung cancer. Mean measured radon levels were corrected for the average floor distribution and weighted with population size of each municipality. Model-based predictions yielded a mean radon exposure of the Swiss population of 84.1 Bq/m(3) . Measurement-based predictions yielded an average exposure of 78 Bq/m(3) . This study demonstrates that the model- and the measurement-based predictions provided similar results. The advantage of the measurement-based approach is its simplicity, which is sufficient for assessing exposure distribution in a population. The model-based approach allows predicting radon levels at specific sites, which is needed in an epidemiological study, and the results do not depend on how the measurement sites have been selected. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Antisense targeting of TGF-β1 augments BMP-induced upregulation of osteopontin, type I collagen and Cbfa1 in human Saos-2 cells

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shen, Zhong-Jian; Kook Kim, Sang; Youn Jun, Do; Park, Wan; Ho Kim, Young; Malter, James S.; Jo Moon, Byung

2007-01-01

Despite commonalities in signal transduction in osteoblasts from different species, the role of TGF-β1 on bone formation remains elusive. In particular, the role of autocrine TGF-β1 on human osteoblasts is largely unknown. Here we show the effect of TGF-β1 knock-down on the proliferation and differentiation of osteoblasts induced by BMP2. Treatment with antisense TGF-β1 moderately increased the rate of cell proliferation, which was completely reversed by the exogenous addition of TGF-β1. Notably, TGF-β1 blockade significantly enhanced BMP2-induced upregulation of mRNAs encoding osteopontin, type I collagen and Cbfa1, which was suppressed by exogenous TGF-β1. Moreover, TGF-β1 knock-down increased BMP2-induced phosphorylation of Smad1/5 as well as their nuclear import, which paralleled a reduction of inhibitory Smad6. These data suggest autocrine TGF-β1 antagonizes BMP signaling through modulation of inducible Smad6 and the activity of BMP specific Smad1/5

IL-2 and IL-15 regulate CD154 expression on activated CD4 T cells

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skov, S; Bonyhadi, M; Odum, Niels

2000-01-01

The cellular and humoral immune system is critically dependent upon CD40-CD154 (CD40 ligand) interactions between CD40 expressed on B cells, macrophages, and dendritic cells, and CD154 expressed primarily on CD4 T cells. Previous studies have shown that CD154 is transiently expressed on CD4 T cells...... after T cell receptor engagement in vitro. However, we found that stimulation of PBLs with maximal CD28 costimulation, using beads coupled to Abs against CD3 and CD28, led to a very prolonged expression of CD154 on CD4 cells (>4 days) that was dependent upon autocrine IL-2 production. Previously...... activated CD4 T cells could respond to IL-2, or the related cytokine IL-15, by de novo CD154 production and expression without requiring an additional signal from CD3 and CD28. These results provide evidence that CD28 costimulation of CD4 T cells, through autocrine IL-2 production, maintains high levels...

Predictive modeling of complications.

Science.gov (United States)

Osorio, Joseph A; Scheer, Justin K; Ames, Christopher P

2016-09-01

Predictive analytic algorithms are designed to identify patterns in the data that allow for accurate predictions without the need for a hypothesis. Therefore, predictive modeling can provide detailed and patient-specific information that can be readily applied when discussing the risks of surgery with a patient. There are few studies using predictive modeling techniques in the adult spine surgery literature. These types of studies represent the beginning of the use of predictive analytics in spine surgery outcomes. We will discuss the advancements in the field of spine surgery with respect to predictive analytics, the controversies surrounding the technique, and the future directions.

Predictive medicine

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Boenink, Marianne; ten Have, Henk

2015-01-01

In the last part of the twentieth century, predictive medicine has gained currency as an important ideal in biomedical research and health care. Research in the genetic and molecular basis of disease suggested that the insights gained might be used to develop tests that predict the future health

Predictability of Conversation Partners

Science.gov (United States)

Takaguchi, Taro; Nakamura, Mitsuhiro; Sato, Nobuo; Yano, Kazuo; Masuda, Naoki

2011-08-01

Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song , ScienceSCIEAS0036-8075 327, 1018 (2010)] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

Predictability of Conversation Partners

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Taro Takaguchi

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Recent developments in sensing technologies have enabled us to examine the nature of human social behavior in greater detail. By applying an information-theoretic method to the spatiotemporal data of cell-phone locations, [C. Song et al., Science 327, 1018 (2010SCIEAS0036-8075] found that human mobility patterns are remarkably predictable. Inspired by their work, we address a similar predictability question in a different kind of human social activity: conversation events. The predictability in the sequence of one’s conversation partners is defined as the degree to which one’s next conversation partner can be predicted given the current partner. We quantify this predictability by using the mutual information. We examine the predictability of conversation events for each individual using the longitudinal data of face-to-face interactions collected from two company offices in Japan. Each subject wears a name tag equipped with an infrared sensor node, and conversation events are marked when signals are exchanged between sensor nodes in close proximity. We find that the conversation events are predictable to a certain extent; knowing the current partner decreases the uncertainty about the next partner by 28.4% on average. Much of the predictability is explained by long-tailed distributions of interevent intervals. However, a predictability also exists in the data, apart from the contribution of their long-tailed nature. In addition, an individual’s predictability is correlated with the position of the individual in the static social network derived from the data. Individuals confined in a community—in the sense of an abundance of surrounding triangles—tend to have low predictability, and those bridging different communities tend to have high predictability.

Structural prediction in aphasia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tessa Warren

2015-05-01

Full Text Available There is considerable evidence that young healthy comprehenders predict the structure of upcoming material, and that their processing is facilitated when they encounter material matching those predictions (e.g., Staub & Clifton, 2006; Yoshida, Dickey & Sturt, 2013. However, less is known about structural prediction in aphasia. There is evidence that lexical prediction may be spared in aphasia (Dickey et al., 2014; Love & Webb, 1977; cf. Mack et al, 2013. However, predictive mechanisms supporting facilitated lexical access may not necessarily support structural facilitation. Given that many people with aphasia (PWA exhibit syntactic deficits (e.g. Goodglass, 1993, PWA with such impairments may not engage in structural prediction. However, recent evidence suggests that some PWA may indeed predict upcoming structure (Hanne, Burchert, De Bleser, & Vashishth, 2015. Hanne et al. tracked the eyes of PWA (n=8 with sentence-comprehension deficits while they listened to reversible subject-verb-object (SVO and object-verb-subject (OVS sentences in German, in a sentence-picture matching task. Hanne et al. manipulated case and number marking to disambiguate the sentences’ structure. Gazes to an OVS or SVO picture during the unfolding of a sentence were assumed to indicate prediction of the structure congruent with that picture. According to this measure, the PWA’s structural prediction was impaired compared to controls, but they did successfully predict upcoming structure when morphosyntactic cues were strong and unambiguous. Hanne et al.’s visual-world evidence is suggestive, but their forced-choice sentence-picture matching task places tight constraints on possible structural predictions. Clearer evidence of structural prediction would come from paradigms where the content of upcoming material is not as constrained. The current study used self-paced reading study to examine structural prediction among PWA in less constrained contexts. PWA (n=17 who

Heterogeneity in both cytokine production and responsiveness of a panel of monoclonal human Epstein-Barr virus-transformed B-cell lines

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jochems, G. J.; Klein, M. R.; Jordens, R.; Pascual-Salcedo, D.; van Boxtel-Oosterhof, F.; van Lier, R. A.; Zeijlemaker, W. P.

1991-01-01

To optimize growth and Ig production of in vitro-cultured Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-transformed B cells, a panel of six monoclonal EBV B-cell lines was analyzed for autocrine growth factor production and responsiveness to various cytokines. Three cell lines produced Il-I and four produced Il-6,

Crucial role of interleukin-4 in the survival of colon cancer stem cells

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Francipane, Maria Giovanna; Alea, Mileidys Perez; Lombardo, Ylenia; Todaro, Matilde; Medema, J. P.; Stassi, Giorgio

2008-01-01

Colon tumors may be maintained by a rare fraction of cancer stem-like cells (CSC) that express the cell surface marker CD133. Self-renewing CSCs exhibit relatively greater resistance to clinical cytotoxic therapies and recent work suggests that this resistance may be mediated in part by an autocrine

IgE-mediated basophil tumour necrosis factor alpha induces matrix metalloproteinase-9 from monocytes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Falkencrone, Sidsel; Poulsen, Lars K.; Bindslev-Jensen, Carsten

2013-01-01

IgE-mediated activation of mast cells has been reported to induce the release of tumour necrosis alpha (TNF-α), which may display autocrine effects on these cells by inducing the generation of the tissue remodelling protease matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9). While mast cells and basophils have...

Ground motion predictions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Loux, P C [Environmental Research Corporation, Alexandria, VA (United States)

1969-07-01

Nuclear generated ground motion is defined and then related to the physical parameters that cause it. Techniques employed for prediction of ground motion peak amplitude, frequency spectra and response spectra are explored, with initial emphasis on the analysis of data collected at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). NTS postshot measurements are compared with pre-shot predictions. Applicability of these techniques to new areas, for example, Plowshare sites, must be questioned. Fortunately, the Atomic Energy Commission is sponsoring complementary studies to improve prediction capabilities primarily in new locations outside the NTS region. Some of these are discussed in the light of anomalous seismic behavior, and comparisons are given showing theoretical versus experimental results. In conclusion, current ground motion prediction techniques are applied to events off the NTS. Predictions are compared with measurements for the event Faultless and for the Plowshare events, Gasbuggy, Cabriolet, and Buggy I. (author)

Evaluating prediction uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKay, M.D.

1995-03-01

The probability distribution of a model prediction is presented as a proper basis for evaluating the uncertainty in a model prediction that arises from uncertainty in input values. Determination of important model inputs and subsets of inputs is made through comparison of the prediction distribution with conditional prediction probability distributions. Replicated Latin hypercube sampling and variance ratios are used in estimation of the distributions and in construction of importance indicators. The assumption of a linear relation between model output and inputs is not necessary for the indicators to be effective. A sequential methodology which includes an independent validation step is applied in two analysis applications to select subsets of input variables which are the dominant causes of uncertainty in the model predictions. Comparison with results from methods which assume linearity shows how those methods may fail. Finally, suggestions for treating structural uncertainty for submodels are presented

Ground motion predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Loux, P.C.

1969-01-01

Nuclear generated ground motion is defined and then related to the physical parameters that cause it. Techniques employed for prediction of ground motion peak amplitude, frequency spectra and response spectra are explored, with initial emphasis on the analysis of data collected at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). NTS postshot measurements are compared with pre-shot predictions. Applicability of these techniques to new areas, for example, Plowshare sites, must be questioned. Fortunately, the Atomic Energy Commission is sponsoring complementary studies to improve prediction capabilities primarily in new locations outside the NTS region. Some of these are discussed in the light of anomalous seismic behavior, and comparisons are given showing theoretical versus experimental results. In conclusion, current ground motion prediction techniques are applied to events off the NTS. Predictions are compared with measurements for the event Faultless and for the Plowshare events, Gasbuggy, Cabriolet, and Buggy I. (author)

Cloud prediction of protein structure and function with PredictProtein for Debian.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaján, László; Yachdav, Guy; Vicedo, Esmeralda; Steinegger, Martin; Mirdita, Milot; Angermüller, Christof; Böhm, Ariane; Domke, Simon; Ertl, Julia; Mertes, Christian; Reisinger, Eva; Staniewski, Cedric; Rost, Burkhard

2013-01-01

We report the release of PredictProtein for the Debian operating system and derivatives, such as Ubuntu, Bio-Linux, and Cloud BioLinux. The PredictProtein suite is available as a standard set of open source Debian packages. The release covers the most popular prediction methods from the Rost Lab, including methods for the prediction of secondary structure and solvent accessibility (profphd), nuclear localization signals (predictnls), and intrinsically disordered regions (norsnet). We also present two case studies that successfully utilize PredictProtein packages for high performance computing in the cloud: the first analyzes protein disorder for whole organisms, and the second analyzes the effect of all possible single sequence variants in protein coding regions of the human genome.

Upregulation of circulating IL-15 by treadmill running in healthy individuals: is IL-15 an endocrine mediator of the beneficial effects of endurance exercise?

Science.gov (United States)

Tamura, Yoshiaki; Watanabe, Keiichi; Kantani, Tomomi; Hayashi, Junichi; Ishida, Nobuhiko; Kaneki, Masao

2011-01-01

The beneficial effects of endurance exercise include insulin-sensitization and reduction of fat mass. Limited knowledge is available about the mechanisms by which endurance exercise exerts the salutary effects. Myokines, cytokines secreted by skeletal muscle, have been recognized as a potential mediator. Recently, a role of skeletal muscle-derived interleukin-15 (IL-15) in improvement of fat-lean body mass composition and insulin sensitivity has been proposed. Yet, previous studies have reported that endurance training does not increase production or secretion of IL-15 in skeletal muscle. Here, we show that in opposition to previous findings, 30-min treadmill running at 70% of age-predicted maximum heart rate resulted in a significant increase in circulating IL-15 level in untrained healthy young men. These findings suggest that IL-15 might play a role in the systemic anti-obesogenic and insulin-sensitizing effects of endurance exercise, not only as a paracrine and autocrine but also as an endocrine factor.

MJO prediction skill of the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Son, S. W.; Lim, Y.; Kim, D.

2017-12-01

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the dominant mode of tropical intraseasonal variability, provides the primary source of tropical and extratropical predictability on subseasonal to seasonal timescales. To better understand its predictability, this study conducts quantitative evaluation of MJO prediction skill in the state-of-the-art operational models participating in the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) prediction project. Based on bivariate correlation coefficient of 0.5, the S2S models exhibit MJO prediction skill ranging from 12 to 36 days. These prediction skills are affected by both the MJO amplitude and phase errors, the latter becoming more important with forecast lead times. Consistent with previous studies, the MJO events with stronger initial amplitude are typically better predicted. However, essentially no sensitivity to the initial MJO phase is observed. Overall MJO prediction skill and its inter-model spread are further related with the model mean biases in moisture fields and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks. In most models, a dry bias quickly builds up in the deep tropics, especially across the Maritime Continent, weakening horizontal moisture gradient. This likely dampens the organization and propagation of MJO. Most S2S models also underestimate the longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks in the tropics, which may affect the maintenance of the MJO convective envelop. In general, the models with a smaller bias in horizontal moisture gradient and longwave cloud-radiation feedbacks show a higher MJO prediction skill, suggesting that improving those processes would enhance MJO prediction skill.

Weighted-Average Least Squares Prediction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Magnus, Jan R.; Wang, Wendun; Zhang, Xinyu

2016-01-01

Prediction under model uncertainty is an important and difficult issue. Traditional prediction methods (such as pretesting) are based on model selection followed by prediction in the selected model, but the reported prediction and the reported prediction variance ignore the uncertainty from the

Dopamine reward prediction error coding.

Science.gov (United States)

Schultz, Wolfram

2016-03-01

Reward prediction errors consist of the differences between received and predicted rewards. They are crucial for basic forms of learning about rewards and make us strive for more rewards-an evolutionary beneficial trait. Most dopamine neurons in the midbrain of humans, monkeys, and rodents signal a reward prediction error; they are activated by more reward than predicted (positive prediction error), remain at baseline activity for fully predicted rewards, and show depressed activity with less reward than predicted (negative prediction error). The dopamine signal increases nonlinearly with reward value and codes formal economic utility. Drugs of addiction generate, hijack, and amplify the dopamine reward signal and induce exaggerated, uncontrolled dopamine effects on neuronal plasticity. The striatum, amygdala, and frontal cortex also show reward prediction error coding, but only in subpopulations of neurons. Thus, the important concept of reward prediction errors is implemented in neuronal hardware.

"When does making detailed predictions make predictions worse?": Correction to Kelly and Simmons (2016).

Science.gov (United States)

2016-10-01

Reports an error in "When Does Making Detailed Predictions Make Predictions Worse" by Theresa F. Kelly and Joseph P. Simmons ( Journal of Experimental Psychology: General , Advanced Online Publication, Aug 8, 2016, np). In the article, the symbols in Figure 2 were inadvertently altered in production. All versions of this article have been corrected. (The following abstract of the original article appeared in record 2016-37952-001.) In this article, we investigate whether making detailed predictions about an event worsens other predictions of the event. Across 19 experiments, 10,896 participants, and 407,045 predictions about 724 professional sports games, we find that people who made detailed predictions about sporting events (e.g., how many hits each baseball team would get) made worse predictions about more general outcomes (e.g., which team would win). We rule out that this effect is caused by inattention or fatigue, thinking too hard, or a differential reliance on holistic information about the teams. Instead, we find that thinking about game-relevant details before predicting winning teams causes people to give less weight to predictive information, presumably because predicting details makes useless or redundant information more accessible and thus more likely to be incorporated into forecasts. Furthermore, we show that this differential use of information can be used to predict what kinds of events will and will not be susceptible to the negative effect of making detailed predictions. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved

Automatically explaining machine learning prediction results: a demonstration on type 2 diabetes risk prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Luo, Gang

2016-01-01

Predictive modeling is a key component of solutions to many healthcare problems. Among all predictive modeling approaches, machine learning methods often achieve the highest prediction accuracy, but suffer from a long-standing open problem precluding their widespread use in healthcare. Most machine learning models give no explanation for their prediction results, whereas interpretability is essential for a predictive model to be adopted in typical healthcare settings. This paper presents the first complete method for automatically explaining results for any machine learning predictive model without degrading accuracy. We did a computer coding implementation of the method. Using the electronic medical record data set from the Practice Fusion diabetes classification competition containing patient records from all 50 states in the United States, we demonstrated the method on predicting type 2 diabetes diagnosis within the next year. For the champion machine learning model of the competition, our method explained prediction results for 87.4 % of patients who were correctly predicted by the model to have type 2 diabetes diagnosis within the next year. Our demonstration showed the feasibility of automatically explaining results for any machine learning predictive model without degrading accuracy.

Predictive Modelling and Time: An Experiment in Temporal Archaeological Predictive Models

OpenAIRE

David Ebert

2006-01-01

One of the most common criticisms of archaeological predictive modelling is that it fails to account for temporal or functional differences in sites. However, a practical solution to temporal or functional predictive modelling has proven to be elusive. This article discusses temporal predictive modelling, focusing on the difficulties of employing temporal variables, then introduces and tests a simple methodology for the implementation of temporal modelling. The temporal models thus created ar...

Autocrine role of vascular IL-15 in intimal thickening

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cercek, Miha; Matsumoto, Michiaki; Li, Hongyan; Chyu, K.-Y.; Peter, Ashok; Shah, Prediman K.; Dimayuga, Paul C.

2006-01-01

Interleukin 15 (IL-15) is a pro-inflammatory cytokine that modulates T cell recruitment and activation, independent of antigen. It has been detected in human atherosclerotic plaques and atherosclerotic plaques of apoE-/- mice. IL-15 regulates fractalkine (FKN)-CX3CR1 chemokine signaling which is involved in atherogenesis and promotes SMC proliferation. We investigated the role of IL-15 in intimal thickening after arterial injury. Treatment of serum-stimulated SMC with IL-15 in vitro attenuated proliferation and suppressed CX3CR1 and FKN mRNA expression. The role of endogenous IL-15 in vivo was investigated in injured carotid arteries of mice. Periadventitial arterial injury resulted in increased IL-15 expression in the media and neointima, paralleled by increased IL-15 receptor α expression. Blockade of endogenous IL-15 increased intimal thickening. FKN and CX3CR1 expression increased after injury and were further augmented after IL-15 blockade. These data suggest that endogenous IL-15 attenuated intimal thickening after arterial injury. The potential mechanism of action is suppression of CX3CR1 signaling

NOAA's National Air Quality Predictions and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for the Next Generation Global Prediction System

Science.gov (United States)

Stajner, I.; Hou, Y. T.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Tong, D.; Pan, L.; Huang, J.; Huang, H. C.; Upadhayay, S.

2016-12-01

NOAA provides operational air quality predictions using the National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC): ozone and wildfire smoke for the United States and airborne dust for the contiguous 48 states at http://airquality.weather.gov. NOAA's predictions of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) became publicly available in February 2016. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are produced using a system that operationally links the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model with meteorological inputs from the North American mesoscale forecast Model (NAM). Smoke and dust predictions are provided using the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. Current NAQFC focus is on updating CMAQ to version 5.0.2, improving PM2.5 predictions, and updating emissions estimates, especially for NOx using recently observed trends. Wildfire smoke emissions from a newer version of the USFS BlueSky system are being included in a new configuration of the NAQFC NAM-CMAQ system, which is re-run for the previous 24 hours when the wildfires were observed from satellites, to better represent wildfire emissions prior to initiating predictions for the next 48 hours. In addition, NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Prediction System (NGGPS) to represent the earth system for extended weather prediction. NGGPS will include a representation of atmospheric dynamics, physics, aerosols and atmospheric composition as well as coupling with ocean, wave, ice and land components. NGGPS is being developed with a broad community involvement, including community developed components and academic research to develop and test potential improvements for potentially inclusion in NGGPS. Several investigators at NOAA's research laboratories and in academia are working to improve the aerosol and gaseous chemistry representation for NGGPS, to develop and evaluate the representation of atmospheric composition, and to establish and improve the coupling with radiation and microphysics

Reward positivity: Reward prediction error or salience prediction error?

Science.gov (United States)

Heydari, Sepideh; Holroyd, Clay B

2016-08-01

The reward positivity is a component of the human ERP elicited by feedback stimuli in trial-and-error learning and guessing tasks. A prominent theory holds that the reward positivity reflects a reward prediction error signal that is sensitive to outcome valence, being larger for unexpected positive events relative to unexpected negative events (Holroyd & Coles, 2002). Although the theory has found substantial empirical support, most of these studies have utilized either monetary or performance feedback to test the hypothesis. However, in apparent contradiction to the theory, a recent study found that unexpected physical punishments also elicit the reward positivity (Talmi, Atkinson, & El-Deredy, 2013). The authors of this report argued that the reward positivity reflects a salience prediction error rather than a reward prediction error. To investigate this finding further, in the present study participants navigated a virtual T maze and received feedback on each trial under two conditions. In a reward condition, the feedback indicated that they would either receive a monetary reward or not and in a punishment condition the feedback indicated that they would receive a small shock or not. We found that the feedback stimuli elicited a typical reward positivity in the reward condition and an apparently delayed reward positivity in the punishment condition. Importantly, this signal was more positive to the stimuli that predicted the omission of a possible punishment relative to stimuli that predicted a forthcoming punishment, which is inconsistent with the salience hypothesis. © 2016 Society for Psychophysiological Research.

Dopamine reward prediction error coding

OpenAIRE

Schultz, Wolfram

2016-01-01

Reward prediction errors consist of the differences between received and predicted rewards. They are crucial for basic forms of learning about rewards and make us strive for more rewards?an evolutionary beneficial trait. Most dopamine neurons in the midbrain of humans, monkeys, and rodents signal a reward prediction error; they are activated by more reward than predicted (positive prediction error), remain at baseline activity for fully predicted rewards, and show depressed activity with less...

Model Prediction Control For Water Management Using Adaptive Prediction Accuracy

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tian, X.; Negenborn, R.R.; Van Overloop, P.J.A.T.M.; Mostert, E.

2014-01-01

In the field of operational water management, Model Predictive Control (MPC) has gained popularity owing to its versatility and flexibility. The MPC controller, which takes predictions, time delay and uncertainties into account, can be designed for multi-objective management problems and for

Transionospheric propagation predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Klobucher, J. A.; Basu, S.; Basu, S.; Bernhardt, P. A.; Davies, K.; Donatelli, D. E.; Fremouw, E. J.; Goodman, J. M.; Hartmann, G. K.; Leitinger, R.

1979-01-01

The current status and future prospects of the capability to make transionospheric propagation predictions are addressed, highlighting the effects of the ionized media, which dominate for frequencies below 1 to 3 GHz, depending upon the state of the ionosphere and the elevation angle through the Earth-space path. The primary concerns are the predictions of time delay of signal modulation (group path delay) and of radio wave scintillation. Progress in these areas is strongly tied to knowledge of variable structures in the ionosphere ranging from the large scale (thousands of kilometers in horizontal extent) to the fine scale (kilometer size). Ionospheric variability and the relative importance of various mechanisms responsible for the time histories observed in total electron content (TEC), proportional to signal group delay, and in irregularity formation are discussed in terms of capability to make both short and long term predictions. The data base upon which predictions are made is examined for its adequacy, and the prospects for prediction improvements by more theoretical studies as well as by increasing the available statistical data base are examined.

Predictable grammatical constructions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lucas, Sandra

2015-01-01

My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting that these p......My aim in this paper is to provide evidence from diachronic linguistics for the view that some predictable units are entrenched in grammar and consequently in human cognition, in a way that makes them functionally and structurally equal to nonpredictable grammatical units, suggesting...... that these predictable units should be considered grammatical constructions on a par with the nonpredictable constructions. Frequency has usually been seen as the only possible argument speaking in favor of viewing some formally and semantically fully predictable units as grammatical constructions. However, this paper...... semantically and formally predictable. Despite this difference, [méllo INF], like the other future periphrases, seems to be highly entrenched in the cognition (and grammar) of Early Medieval Greek language users, and consequently a grammatical construction. The syntactic evidence speaking in favor of [méllo...

Candidate Prediction Models and Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henrik Aalborg; Nielsen, Torben Skov; Madsen, Henrik

2005-01-01

This document lists candidate prediction models for Work Package 3 (WP3) of the PSO-project called ``Intelligent wind power prediction systems'' (FU4101). The main focus is on the models transforming numerical weather predictions into predictions of power production. The document also outlines...... the possibilities w.r.t. different numerical weather predictions actually available to the project....

Prediction Markets

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Horn, Christian Franz; Ivens, Bjørn Sven; Ohneberg, Michael

2014-01-01

In recent years, Prediction Markets gained growing interest as a forecasting tool among researchers as well as practitioners, which resulted in an increasing number of publications. In order to track the latest development of research, comprising the extent and focus of research, this article...... provides a comprehensive review and classification of the literature related to the topic of Prediction Markets. Overall, 316 relevant articles, published in the timeframe from 2007 through 2013, were identified and assigned to a herein presented classification scheme, differentiating between descriptive...... works, articles of theoretical nature, application-oriented studies and articles dealing with the topic of law and policy. The analysis of the research results reveals that more than half of the literature pool deals with the application and actual function tests of Prediction Markets. The results...

Adding propensity scores to pure prediction models fails to improve predictive performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amy S. Nowacki

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Background. Propensity score usage seems to be growing in popularity leading researchers to question the possible role of propensity scores in prediction modeling, despite the lack of a theoretical rationale. It is suspected that such requests are due to the lack of differentiation regarding the goals of predictive modeling versus causal inference modeling. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to formally examine the effect of propensity scores on predictive performance. Our hypothesis is that a multivariable regression model that adjusts for all covariates will perform as well as or better than those models utilizing propensity scores with respect to model discrimination and calibration.Methods. The most commonly encountered statistical scenarios for medical prediction (logistic and proportional hazards regression were used to investigate this research question. Random cross-validation was performed 500 times to correct for optimism. The multivariable regression models adjusting for all covariates were compared with models that included adjustment for or weighting with the propensity scores. The methods were compared based on three predictive performance measures: (1 concordance indices; (2 Brier scores; and (3 calibration curves.Results. Multivariable models adjusting for all covariates had the highest average concordance index, the lowest average Brier score, and the best calibration. Propensity score adjustment and inverse probability weighting models without adjustment for all covariates performed worse than full models and failed to improve predictive performance with full covariate adjustment.Conclusion. Propensity score techniques did not improve prediction performance measures beyond multivariable adjustment. Propensity scores are not recommended if the analytical goal is pure prediction modeling.

Age-related prodiabetogenic effects of transgenic resistin in spontaneously hypertensive rats

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Pravenec, Michal; Zídek, Václav; Landa, Vladimír; Kazdová, L.; Kurtz, T.

2006-01-01

Roč. 23, Suppl. 4 (2006), s. 271-271 ISSN 0742-3071. [World Diabetes Congress /19./. 03.12.2006-07.12.2006, Cape Town] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GA301/06/0028 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50110509 Keywords : resistin * autocrine effects * transgenic Subject RIV: ED - Physiology

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

Science.gov (United States)

King, Michael; Marston, Louise; Švab, Igor; Maaroos, Heidi-Ingrid; Geerlings, Mirjam I; Xavier, Miguel; Benjamin, Vicente; Torres-Gonzalez, Francisco; Bellon-Saameno, Juan Angel; Rotar, Danica; Aluoja, Anu; Saldivia, Sandra; Correa, Bernardo; Nazareth, Irwin

2011-01-01

Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL) for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers. A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women. 69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873). The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51). External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846) and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78). The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Development and validation of a risk model for prediction of hazardous alcohol consumption in general practice attendees: the predictAL study.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael King

Full Text Available Little is known about the risk of progression to hazardous alcohol use in people currently drinking at safe limits. We aimed to develop a prediction model (predictAL for the development of hazardous drinking in safe drinkers.A prospective cohort study of adult general practice attendees in six European countries and Chile followed up over 6 months. We recruited 10,045 attendees between April 2003 to February 2005. 6193 European and 2462 Chilean attendees recorded AUDIT scores below 8 in men and 5 in women at recruitment and were used in modelling risk. 38 risk factors were measured to construct a risk model for the development of hazardous drinking using stepwise logistic regression. The model was corrected for over fitting and tested in an external population. The main outcome was hazardous drinking defined by an AUDIT score ≥8 in men and ≥5 in women.69.0% of attendees were recruited, of whom 89.5% participated again after six months. The risk factors in the final predictAL model were sex, age, country, baseline AUDIT score, panic syndrome and lifetime alcohol problem. The predictAL model's average c-index across all six European countries was 0.839 (95% CI 0.805, 0.873. The Hedge's g effect size for the difference in log odds of predicted probability between safe drinkers in Europe who subsequently developed hazardous alcohol use and those who did not was 1.38 (95% CI 1.25, 1.51. External validation of the algorithm in Chilean safe drinkers resulted in a c-index of 0.781 (95% CI 0.717, 0.846 and Hedge's g of 0.68 (95% CI 0.57, 0.78.The predictAL risk model for development of hazardous consumption in safe drinkers compares favourably with risk algorithms for disorders in other medical settings and can be a useful first step in prevention of alcohol misuse.

Genomic prediction of complex human traits: relatedness, trait architecture and predictive meta-models

Science.gov (United States)

Spiliopoulou, Athina; Nagy, Reka; Bermingham, Mairead L.; Huffman, Jennifer E.; Hayward, Caroline; Vitart, Veronique; Rudan, Igor; Campbell, Harry; Wright, Alan F.; Wilson, James F.; Pong-Wong, Ricardo; Agakov, Felix; Navarro, Pau; Haley, Chris S.

2015-01-01

We explore the prediction of individuals' phenotypes for complex traits using genomic data. We compare several widely used prediction models, including Ridge Regression, LASSO and Elastic Nets estimated from cohort data, and polygenic risk scores constructed using published summary statistics from genome-wide association meta-analyses (GWAMA). We evaluate the interplay between relatedness, trait architecture and optimal marker density, by predicting height, body mass index (BMI) and high-density lipoprotein level (HDL) in two data cohorts, originating from Croatia and Scotland. We empirically demonstrate that dense models are better when all genetic effects are small (height and BMI) and target individuals are related to the training samples, while sparse models predict better in unrelated individuals and when some effects have moderate size (HDL). For HDL sparse models achieved good across-cohort prediction, performing similarly to the GWAMA risk score and to models trained within the same cohort, which indicates that, for predicting traits with moderately sized effects, large sample sizes and familial structure become less important, though still potentially useful. Finally, we propose a novel ensemble of whole-genome predictors with GWAMA risk scores and demonstrate that the resulting meta-model achieves higher prediction accuracy than either model on its own. We conclude that although current genomic predictors are not accurate enough for diagnostic purposes, performance can be improved without requiring access to large-scale individual-level data. Our methodologically simple meta-model is a means of performing predictive meta-analysis for optimizing genomic predictions and can be easily extended to incorporate multiple population-level summary statistics or other domain knowledge. PMID:25918167

Predicting scholars' scientific impact.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amin Mazloumian

Full Text Available We tested the underlying assumption that citation counts are reliable predictors of future success, analyzing complete citation data on the careers of ~150,000 scientists. Our results show that i among all citation indicators, the annual citations at the time of prediction is the best predictor of future citations, ii future citations of a scientist's published papers can be predicted accurately (r(2 = 0.80 for a 1-year prediction, P<0.001 but iii future citations of future work are hardly predictable.

Protein Sorting Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Henrik

2017-01-01

and drawbacks of each of these approaches is described through many examples of methods that predict secretion, integration into membranes, or subcellular locations in general. The aim of this chapter is to provide a user-level introduction to the field with a minimum of computational theory.......Many computational methods are available for predicting protein sorting in bacteria. When comparing them, it is important to know that they can be grouped into three fundamentally different approaches: signal-based, global-property-based and homology-based prediction. In this chapter, the strengths...

'Red Flag' Predictions

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hallin, Carina Antonia; Andersen, Torben Juul; Tveterås, Sigbjørn

-generation prediction markets and outline its unique features as a third-generation prediction market. It is argued that frontline employees gain deep insights when they execute operational activities on an ongoing basis in the organization. The experiential learning from close interaction with internal and external......This conceptual article introduces a new way to predict firm performance based on aggregation of sensing among frontline employees about changes in operational capabilities to update strategic action plans and generate innovations. We frame the approach in the context of first- and second...

Predictive value of diminutive colonic adenoma trial: the PREDICT trial.

Science.gov (United States)

Schoenfeld, Philip; Shad, Javaid; Ormseth, Eric; Coyle, Walter; Cash, Brooks; Butler, James; Schindler, William; Kikendall, Walter J; Furlong, Christopher; Sobin, Leslie H; Hobbs, Christine M; Cruess, David; Rex, Douglas

2003-05-01

Diminutive adenomas (1-9 mm in diameter) are frequently found during colon cancer screening with flexible sigmoidoscopy (FS). This trial assessed the predictive value of these diminutive adenomas for advanced adenomas in the proximal colon. In a multicenter, prospective cohort trial, we matched 200 patients with normal FS and 200 patients with diminutive adenomas on FS for age and gender. All patients underwent colonoscopy. The presence of advanced adenomas (adenoma >or= 10 mm in diameter, villous adenoma, adenoma with high grade dysplasia, and colon cancer) and adenomas (any size) was recorded. Before colonoscopy, patients completed questionnaires about risk factors for adenomas. The prevalence of advanced adenomas in the proximal colon was similar in patients with diminutive adenomas and patients with normal FS (6% vs. 5.5%, respectively) (relative risk, 1.1; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.5-2.6). Diminutive adenomas on FS did not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon: sensitivity, 52% (95% CI, 32%-72%); specificity, 50% (95% CI, 49%-51%); positive predictive value, 6% (95% CI, 4%-8%); and negative predictive value, 95% (95% CI, 92%-97%). Male gender (odds ratio, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.01-2.61) was associated with an increased risk of proximal colon adenomas. Diminutive adenomas on sigmoidoscopy may not accurately predict advanced adenomas in the proximal colon.

Dehydration-induced modulation of κ-opioid inhibition of vasopressin neurone activity

Science.gov (United States)

Scott, Victoria; Bishop, Valerie R; Leng, Gareth; Brown, Colin H

2009-01-01

Dehydration increases vasopressin (antidiuretic hormone) secretion from the posterior pituitary gland to reduce water loss in the urine. Vasopressin secretion is determined by action potential firing in vasopressin neurones, which can exhibit continuous, phasic (alternating periods of activity and silence), or irregular activity. Autocrine κ-opioid inhibition contributes to the generation of activity patterning of vasopressin neurones under basal conditions and so we used in vivo extracellular single unit recording to test the hypothesis that changes in autocrine κ-opioid inhibition drive changes in activity patterning of vasopressin neurones during dehydration. Dehydration increased the firing rate of rat vasopressin neurones displaying continuous activity (from 7.1 ± 0.5 to 9.0 ± 0.6 spikes s−1) and phasic activity (from 4.2 ± 0.7 to 7.8 ± 0.9 spikes s−1), but not those displaying irregular activity. The dehydration-induced increase in phasic activity was via an increase in intraburst firing rate. The selective κ-opioid receptor antagonist nor-binaltorphimine increased the firing rate of phasic neurones in non-dehydrated rats (from 3.4 ± 0.8 to 5.3 ± 0.6 spikes s−1) and dehydrated rats (from 6.4 ± 0.5 to 9.1 ± 1.2 spikes s−1), indicating that κ-opioid feedback inhibition of phasic bursts is maintained during dehydration. In a separate series of experiments, prodynorphin mRNA expression was increased in vasopressin neurones of hyperosmotic rats, compared to hypo-osmotic rats. Hence, it appears that dynorphin expression in vasopressin neurones undergoes dynamic changes in proportion to the required secretion of vasopressin so that, even under stimulated conditions, autocrine feedback inhibition of vasopressin neurones prevents over-excitation. PMID:19822541

Review of Nearshore Morphologic Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Plant, N. G.; Dalyander, S.; Long, J.

2014-12-01

The evolution of the world's erodible coastlines will determine the balance between the benefits and costs associated with human and ecological utilization of shores, beaches, dunes, barrier islands, wetlands, and estuaries. So, we would like to predict coastal evolution to guide management and planning of human and ecological response to coastal changes. After decades of research investment in data collection, theoretical and statistical analysis, and model development we have a number of empirical, statistical, and deterministic models that can predict the evolution of the shoreline, beaches, dunes, and wetlands over time scales of hours to decades, and even predict the evolution of geologic strata over the course of millennia. Comparisons of predictions to data have demonstrated that these models can have meaningful predictive skill. But these comparisons also highlight the deficiencies in fundamental understanding, formulations, or data that are responsible for prediction errors and uncertainty. Here, we review a subset of predictive models of the nearshore to illustrate tradeoffs in complexity, predictive skill, and sensitivity to input data and parameterization errors. We identify where future improvement in prediction skill will result from improved theoretical understanding, and data collection, and model-data assimilation.

The Prediction Value

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Koster, M.; Kurz, S.; Lindner, I.; Napel, S.

2013-01-01

We introduce the prediction value (PV) as a measure of players’ informational importance in probabilistic TU games. The latter combine a standard TU game and a probability distribution over the set of coalitions. Player i’s prediction value equals the difference between the conditional expectations

Predicting Energy Consumption for Potential Effective Use in Hybrid Vehicle Powertrain Management Using Driver Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Magnuson, Brian

A proof-of-concept software-in-the-loop study is performed to assess the accuracy of predicted net and charge-gaining energy consumption for potential effective use in optimizing powertrain management of hybrid vehicles. With promising results of improving fuel efficiency of a thermostatic control strategy for a series, plug-ing, hybrid-electric vehicle by 8.24%, the route and speed prediction machine learning algorithms are redesigned and implemented for real- world testing in a stand-alone C++ code-base to ingest map data, learn and predict driver habits, and store driver data for fast startup and shutdown of the controller or computer used to execute the compiled algorithm. Speed prediction is performed using a multi-layer, multi-input, multi- output neural network using feed-forward prediction and gradient descent through back- propagation training. Route prediction utilizes a Hidden Markov Model with a recurrent forward algorithm for prediction and multi-dimensional hash maps to store state and state distribution constraining associations between atomic road segments and end destinations. Predicted energy is calculated using the predicted time-series speed and elevation profile over the predicted route and the road-load equation. Testing of the code-base is performed over a known road network spanning 24x35 blocks on the south hill of Spokane, Washington. A large set of training routes are traversed once to add randomness to the route prediction algorithm, and a subset of the training routes, testing routes, are traversed to assess the accuracy of the net and charge-gaining predicted energy consumption. Each test route is traveled a random number of times with varying speed conditions from traffic and pedestrians to add randomness to speed prediction. Prediction data is stored and analyzed in a post process Matlab script. The aggregated results and analysis of all traversals of all test routes reflect the performance of the Driver Prediction algorithm. The

Is Time Predictability Quantifiable?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schoeberl, Martin

2012-01-01

Computer architects and researchers in the realtime domain start to investigate processors and architectures optimized for real-time systems. Optimized for real-time systems means time predictable, i.e., architectures where it is possible to statically derive a tight bound of the worst......-case execution time. To compare different approaches we would like to quantify time predictability. That means we need to measure time predictability. In this paper we discuss the different approaches for these measurements and conclude that time predictability is practically not quantifiable. We can only...... compare the worst-case execution time bounds of different architectures....

Structure of the EGF receptor transactivation circuit integrates multiple signals with cell context

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joslin, Elizabeth J.; Shankaran, Harish; Opresko, Lee K.; Bollinger, Nikki; Lauffenburger, Douglas A.; Wiley, H. S.

2010-05-10

Transactivation of the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) has been proposed to be a mechanism by which a variety of cellular inputs can be integrated into a single signaling pathway, but the regulatory topology of this important system is unclear. To understand the transactivation circuit, we first created a “non-binding” reporter for ligand shedding. We then quantitatively defined how signals from multiple agonists were integrated both upstream and downstream of the EGFR into the extracellular signal regulated kinase (ERK) cascade in human mammary epithelial cells. We found that transactivation is mediated by a recursive autocrine circuit where ligand shedding drives EGFR-stimulated ERK that in turn drives further ligand shedding. The time from shedding to ERK activation is fast (<5 min) whereas the recursive feedback is slow (>15 min). Simulations showed that this delay in positive feedback greatly enhanced system stability and robustness. Our results indicate that the transactivation circuit is constructed so that the magnitude of ERK signaling is governed by the sum of multiple direct inputs, while recursive, autocrine ligand shedding controls signal duration.

The Effect of Anabolic Steroid Administration on Passive Stretching-Induced Expression of Mechano-Growth Factor in Skeletal Muscle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Satoshi Ikeda

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Background. Stretching of skeletal muscle induces expression of the genes which encode myogenic transcription factors or muscle contractile proteins and results in muscle growth. Anabolic steroids are reported to strengthen muscles. We have previously studied the effects of muscle stretching on gene expression. Here, we studied the effect of a combination of passive stretching and the administration of an anabolic steroid on mRNA expression of a muscle growth factor, insulin-like growth factor-I autocrine variant, or mechano-growth factor (MGF. Methods. Twelve 8-week-old male Wistar rats were used. Metenolone was administered and passive repetitive dorsiflexion and plantar flexion of the ankle joint performed under deep anesthesia. After 24 h, the gastrocnemius muscles were removed and the mRNA expression of insulin-like growth factor-I autocrine variant was measured using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction. Results. Repetitive stretching in combination with metenolone, but not stretching alone, significantly increased MGF mRNA expression. Conclusion. Anabolic steroids enhance the effect of passive stretching on MGF expression in skeletal muscle.

Feedback amplification of fibrosis through matrix stiffening and COX-2 suppression

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Fei; Mih, Justin D.; Shea, Barry S.; Kho, Alvin T.; Sharif, Asma S.; Tager, Andrew M.

2010-01-01

Tissue stiffening is a hallmark of fibrotic disorders but has traditionally been regarded as an outcome of fibrosis, not a contributing factor to pathogenesis. In this study, we show that fibrosis induced by bleomycin injury in the murine lung locally increases median tissue stiffness sixfold relative to normal lung parenchyma. Across this pathophysiological stiffness range, cultured lung fibroblasts transition from a surprisingly quiescent state to progressive increases in proliferation and matrix synthesis, accompanied by coordinated decreases in matrix proteolytic gene expression. Increasing matrix stiffness strongly suppresses fibroblast expression of COX-2 (cyclooxygenase-2) and synthesis of prostaglandin E2 (PGE2), an autocrine inhibitor of fibrogenesis. Exogenous PGE2 or an agonist of the prostanoid EP2 receptor completely counteracts the proliferative and matrix synthetic effects caused by increased stiffness. Together, these results demonstrate a dominant role for normal tissue compliance, acting in part through autocrine PGE2, in maintaining fibroblast quiescence and reveal a feedback relationship between matrix stiffening, COX-2 suppression, and fibroblast activation that promotes and amplifies progressive fibrosis. PMID:20733059

The significance of estradiol metabolites in human corpus luteum physiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Devoto, Luigi; Henríquez, Soledad; Kohen, Paulina; Strauss, Jerome F

2017-07-01

The human corpus luteum (CL) is a temporary endocrine gland derived from the ovulated follicle. Its formation and limited lifespan is critical for steroid hormone production required to support menstrual cyclicity, endometrial receptivity for successful implantation, and the maintenance of early pregnancy. Endocrine and paracrine-autocrine molecular mechanisms associated with progesterone production throughout the luteal phase are critical for the development, maintenance, regression, and rescue by hCG which sustains CL function into early pregnancy. However, the signaling systems driving the regression of the primate corpus luteum in non-conception cycles are not well understood. Recently, there has been interest in the functional roles of estradiol metabolites (EMs), mostly in estrogen-producing tissues. The human CL produces a number of EMs, and it has been postulated that the EMs acting via paracrine-autocrine pathways affect angiogenesis or LH-mediated events. The present review describes advances in understanding the role of EMs in the functional lifespan and regression of the human CL in non-conception cycles. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Predicting AD conversion

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Yawu; Mattila, Jussi; Ruiz, Miguel �ngel Mu�oz

2013-01-01

To compare the accuracies of predicting AD conversion by using a decision support system (PredictAD tool) and current research criteria of prodromal AD as identified by combinations of episodic memory impairment of hippocampal type and visual assessment of medial temporal lobe atrophy (MTA) on MRI...

Filtering and prediction

CERN Document Server

Fristedt, B; Krylov, N

2007-01-01

Filtering and prediction is about observing moving objects when the observations are corrupted by random errors. The main focus is then on filtering out the errors and extracting from the observations the most precise information about the object, which itself may or may not be moving in a somewhat random fashion. Next comes the prediction step where, using information about the past behavior of the object, one tries to predict its future path. The first three chapters of the book deal with discrete probability spaces, random variables, conditioning, Markov chains, and filtering of discrete Markov chains. The next three chapters deal with the more sophisticated notions of conditioning in nondiscrete situations, filtering of continuous-space Markov chains, and of Wiener process. Filtering and prediction of stationary sequences is discussed in the last two chapters. The authors believe that they have succeeded in presenting necessary ideas in an elementary manner without sacrificing the rigor too much. Such rig...

PredictSNP: robust and accurate consensus classifier for prediction of disease-related mutations.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaroslav Bendl

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Single nucleotide variants represent a prevalent form of genetic variation. Mutations in the coding regions are frequently associated with the development of various genetic diseases. Computational tools for the prediction of the effects of mutations on protein function are very important for analysis of single nucleotide variants and their prioritization for experimental characterization. Many computational tools are already widely employed for this purpose. Unfortunately, their comparison and further improvement is hindered by large overlaps between the training datasets and benchmark datasets, which lead to biased and overly optimistic reported performances. In this study, we have constructed three independent datasets by removing all duplicities, inconsistencies and mutations previously used in the training of evaluated tools. The benchmark dataset containing over 43,000 mutations was employed for the unbiased evaluation of eight established prediction tools: MAPP, nsSNPAnalyzer, PANTHER, PhD-SNP, PolyPhen-1, PolyPhen-2, SIFT and SNAP. The six best performing tools were combined into a consensus classifier PredictSNP, resulting into significantly improved prediction performance, and at the same time returned results for all mutations, confirming that consensus prediction represents an accurate and robust alternative to the predictions delivered by individual tools. A user-friendly web interface enables easy access to all eight prediction tools, the consensus classifier PredictSNP and annotations from the Protein Mutant Database and the UniProt database. The web server and the datasets are freely available to the academic community at http://loschmidt.chemi.muni.cz/predictsnp.

Predictive maintenance primer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flude, J.W.; Nicholas, J.R.

1991-04-01

This Predictive Maintenance Primer provides utility plant personnel with a single-source reference to predictive maintenance analysis methods and technologies used successfully by utilities and other industries. It is intended to be a ready reference to personnel considering starting, expanding or improving a predictive maintenance program. This Primer includes a discussion of various analysis methods and how they overlap and interrelate. Additionally, eighteen predictive maintenance technologies are discussed in sufficient detail for the user to evaluate the potential of each technology for specific applications. This document is designed to allow inclusion of additional technologies in the future. To gather the information necessary to create this initial Primer the Nuclear Maintenance Applications Center (NMAC) collected experience data from eighteen utilities plus other industry and government sources. NMAC also contacted equipment manufacturers for information pertaining to equipment utilization, maintenance, and technical specifications. The Primer includes a discussion of six methods used by analysts to study predictive maintenance data. These are: trend analysis; pattern recognition; correlation; test against limits or ranges; relative comparison data; and statistical process analysis. Following the analysis methods discussions are detailed descriptions for eighteen technologies analysts have found useful for predictive maintenance programs at power plants and other industrial facilities. Each technology subchapter has a description of the operating principles involved in the technology, a listing of plant equipment where the technology can be applied, and a general description of the monitoring equipment. Additionally, these descriptions include a discussion of results obtained from actual equipment users and preferred analysis techniques to be used on data obtained from the technology. 5 refs., 30 figs

Genomic prediction using subsampling.

Science.gov (United States)

Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

2017-03-24

Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each round of a Markov Chain Monte Carlo. We evaluated the effect of subsampling bootstrap on prediction and computational parameters. Across datasets, we observed an optimal subsampling proportion of observations around 50% with replacement, and around 33% without replacement. Subsampling provided a substantial decrease in computation time, reducing the time to fit the model by half. On average, losses on predictive properties imposed by subsampling were negligible, usually below 1%. For each dataset, an optimal subsampling point that improves prediction properties was observed, but the improvements were also negligible. Combining subsampling with Gibbs sampling is an interesting ensemble algorithm. The investigation indicates that the subsampling bootstrap Markov chain algorithm substantially reduces computational burden associated with model fitting, and it may slightly enhance prediction properties.

New discoveries on the biology and detection of human chorionic gonadotropin

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cole Laurence A

2009-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Human chorionic gonadotropin (hCG is a glycoprotein hormone comprising 2 subunits, alpha and beta joined non covalently. While similar in structure to luteinizing hormone (LH, hCG exists in multiple hormonal and non-endocrine agents, rather than as a single molecule like LH and the other glycoprotein hormones. These are regular hCG, hyperglycosylated hCG and the free beta-subunit of hyperglycosylated hCG. For 88 years regular hCG has been known as a promoter of corpus luteal progesterone production, even though this function only explains 3 weeks of a full gestations production of regular hCG. Research in recent years has explained the full gestational production by demonstration of critical functions in trophoblast differentiation and in fetal nutrition through myometrial spiral artery angiogenesis. While regular hCG is made by fused villous syncytiotrophoblast cells, extravillous invasive cytotrophoblast cells make the variant hyperglycosylated hCG. This variant is an autocrine factor, acting on extravillous invasive cytotrophoblast cells to initiate and control invasion as occurs at implantation of pregnancy and the establishment of hemochorial placentation, and malignancy as occurs in invasive hydatidiform mole and choriocarcinoma. Hyperglycosylated hCG inhibits apoptosis in extravillous invasive cytotrophoblast cells promoting cell invasion, growth and malignancy. Other non-trophoblastic malignancies retro-differentiate and produce a hyperglycosylated free beta-subunit of hCG (hCG free beta. This has been shown to be an autocrine factor antagonizing apoptosis furthering cancer cell growth and malignancy. New applications have been demonstrated for total hCG measurements and detection of the 3 hCG variants in pregnancy detection, monitoring pregnancy outcome, determining risk for Down syndrome fetus, predicting preeclampsia, detecting pituitary hCG, detecting and managing gestational trophoblastic diseases, diagnosing quiescent

Emerging approaches in predictive toxicology.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Luoping; McHale, Cliona M; Greene, Nigel; Snyder, Ronald D; Rich, Ivan N; Aardema, Marilyn J; Roy, Shambhu; Pfuhler, Stefan; Venkatactahalam, Sundaresan

2014-12-01

Predictive toxicology plays an important role in the assessment of toxicity of chemicals and the drug development process. While there are several well-established in vitro and in vivo assays that are suitable for predictive toxicology, recent advances in high-throughput analytical technologies and model systems are expected to have a major impact on the field of predictive toxicology. This commentary provides an overview of the state of the current science and a brief discussion on future perspectives for the field of predictive toxicology for human toxicity. Computational models for predictive toxicology, needs for further refinement and obstacles to expand computational models to include additional classes of chemical compounds are highlighted. Functional and comparative genomics approaches in predictive toxicology are discussed with an emphasis on successful utilization of recently developed model systems for high-throughput analysis. The advantages of three-dimensional model systems and stem cells and their use in predictive toxicology testing are also described. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Earthquake prediction with electromagnetic phenomena

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hayakawa, Masashi, E-mail: hayakawa@hi-seismo-em.jp [Hayakawa Institute of Seismo Electomagnetics, Co. Ltd., University of Electro-Communications (UEC) Incubation Center, 1-5-1 Chofugaoka, Chofu Tokyo, 182-8585 (Japan); Advanced Wireless & Communications Research Center, UEC, Chofu Tokyo (Japan); Earthquake Analysis Laboratory, Information Systems Inc., 4-8-15, Minami-aoyama, Minato-ku, Tokyo, 107-0062 (Japan); Fuji Security Systems. Co. Ltd., Iwato-cho 1, Shinjyuku-ku, Tokyo (Japan)

2016-02-01

Short-term earthquake (EQ) prediction is defined as prospective prediction with the time scale of about one week, which is considered to be one of the most important and urgent topics for the human beings. If this short-term prediction is realized, casualty will be drastically reduced. Unlike the conventional seismic measurement, we proposed the use of electromagnetic phenomena as precursors to EQs in the prediction, and an extensive amount of progress has been achieved in the field of seismo-electromagnetics during the last two decades. This paper deals with the review on this short-term EQ prediction, including the impossibility myth of EQs prediction by seismometers, the reason why we are interested in electromagnetics, the history of seismo-electromagnetics, the ionospheric perturbation as the most promising candidate of EQ prediction, then the future of EQ predictology from two standpoints of a practical science and a pure science, and finally a brief summary.

Prediction of bull fertility.

Science.gov (United States)

Utt, Matthew D

2016-06-01

Prediction of male fertility is an often sought-after endeavor for many species of domestic animals. This review will primarily focus on providing some examples of dependent and independent variables to stimulate thought about the approach and methodology of identifying the most appropriate of those variables to predict bull (bovine) fertility. Although the list of variables will continue to grow with advancements in science, the principles behind making predictions will likely not change significantly. The basic principle of prediction requires identifying a dependent variable that is an estimate of fertility and an independent variable or variables that may be useful in predicting the fertility estimate. Fertility estimates vary in which parts of the process leading to conception that they infer about and the amount of variation that influences the estimate and the uncertainty thereof. The list of potential independent variables can be divided into competence of sperm based on their performance in bioassays or direct measurement of sperm attributes. A good prediction will use a sample population of bulls that is representative of the population to which an inference will be made. Both dependent and independent variables should have a dynamic range in their values. Careful selection of independent variables includes reasonable measurement repeatability and minimal correlation among variables. Proper estimation and having an appreciation of the degree of uncertainty of dependent and independent variables are crucial for using predictions to make decisions regarding bull fertility. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Climate Prediction - NOAA's National Weather Service

Science.gov (United States)

Statistical Models... MOS Prod GFS-LAMP Prod Climate Past Weather Predictions Weather Safety Weather Radio National Weather Service on FaceBook NWS on Facebook NWS Director Home > Climate > Predictions Climate Prediction Long range forecasts across the U.S. Climate Prediction Web Sites Climate Prediction

UDP/P2Y6 receptor signaling regulates IgE-dependent degranulation in human basophils

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manabu Nakano

2017-10-01

Conclusions: This study showed that UDP/P2Y6 receptor signaling is involved in the regulation of IgE-dependent degranulation in basophils, which might stimulate the P2Y6 receptor via the autocrine secretion of UTP. Thus, this receptor represents a potential target to regulate IgE-dependent degranulation in basophils during allergic diseases.

Tide Predictions, California, 2014, NOAA

Data.gov (United States)

U.S. Environmental Protection Agency — The predictions from the web based NOAA Tide Predictions are based upon the latest information available as of the date of the user's request. Tide predictions...

Decadal climate prediction (project GCEP).

Science.gov (United States)

Haines, Keith; Hermanson, Leon; Liu, Chunlei; Putt, Debbie; Sutton, Rowan; Iwi, Alan; Smith, Doug

2009-03-13

Decadal prediction uses climate models forced by changing greenhouse gases, as in the International Panel for Climate Change, but unlike longer range predictions they also require initialization with observations of the current climate. In particular, the upper-ocean heat content and circulation have a critical influence. Decadal prediction is still in its infancy and there is an urgent need to understand the important processes that determine predictability on these timescales. We have taken the first Hadley Centre Decadal Prediction System (DePreSys) and implemented it on several NERC institute compute clusters in order to study a wider range of initial condition impacts on decadal forecasting, eventually including the state of the land and cryosphere. The eScience methods are used to manage submission and output from the many ensemble model runs required to assess predictive skill. Early results suggest initial condition skill may extend for several years, even over land areas, but this depends sensitively on the definition used to measure skill, and alternatives are presented. The Grid for Coupled Ensemble Prediction (GCEP) system will allow the UK academic community to contribute to international experiments being planned to explore decadal climate predictability.

Potential Predictability and Prediction Skill for Southern Peru Summertime Rainfall

Science.gov (United States)

WU, S.; Notaro, M.; Vavrus, S. J.; Mortensen, E.; Block, P. J.; Montgomery, R. J.; De Pierola, J. N.; Sanchez, C.

2016-12-01

The central Andes receive over 50% of annual climatological rainfall during the short period of January-March. This summertime rainfall exhibits strong interannual and decadal variability, including severe drought events that incur devastating societal impacts and cause agricultural communities and mining facilities to compete for limited water resources. An improved seasonal prediction skill of summertime rainfall would aid in water resource planning and allocation across the water-limited southern Peru. While various underlying mechanisms have been proposed by past studies for the drivers of interannual variability in summertime rainfall across southern Peru, such as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), and extratropical forcings, operational forecasts continue to be largely based on rudimentary ENSO-based indices, such as NINO3.4, justifying further exploration of predictive skill. In order to bridge this gap between the understanding of driving mechanisms and the operational forecast, we performed systematic studies on the predictability and prediction skill of southern Peru summertime rainfall by constructing statistical forecast models using best available weather station and reanalysis datasets. At first, by assuming the first two empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) of summertime rainfall are predictable, the potential predictability skill was evaluated for southern Peru. Then, we constructed a simple regression model, based on the time series of tropical Pacific sea-surface temperatures (SSTs), and a more advanced Linear Inverse Model (LIM), based on the EOFs of tropical ocean SSTs and large-scale atmosphere variables from reanalysis. Our results show that the LIM model consistently outperforms the more rudimentary regression models on the forecast skill of domain averaged precipitation index and individual station indices. The improvement of forecast correlation skill ranges from 10% to over 200% for different

Predicting epileptic seizures in advance.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Negin Moghim

Full Text Available Epilepsy is the second most common neurological disorder, affecting 0.6-0.8% of the world's population. In this neurological disorder, abnormal activity of the brain causes seizures, the nature of which tend to be sudden. Antiepileptic Drugs (AEDs are used as long-term therapeutic solutions that control the condition. Of those treated with AEDs, 35% become resistant to medication. The unpredictable nature of seizures poses risks for the individual with epilepsy. It is clearly desirable to find more effective ways of preventing seizures for such patients. The automatic detection of oncoming seizures, before their actual onset, can facilitate timely intervention and hence minimize these risks. In addition, advance prediction of seizures can enrich our understanding of the epileptic brain. In this study, drawing on the body of work behind automatic seizure detection and prediction from digitised Invasive Electroencephalography (EEG data, a prediction algorithm, ASPPR (Advance Seizure Prediction via Pre-ictal Relabeling, is described. ASPPR facilitates the learning of predictive models targeted at recognizing patterns in EEG activity that are in a specific time window in advance of a seizure. It then exploits advanced machine learning coupled with the design and selection of appropriate features from EEG signals. Results, from evaluating ASPPR independently on 21 different patients, suggest that seizures for many patients can be predicted up to 20 minutes in advance of their onset. Compared to benchmark performance represented by a mean S1-Score (harmonic mean of Sensitivity and Specificity of 90.6% for predicting seizure onset between 0 and 5 minutes in advance, ASPPR achieves mean S1-Scores of: 96.30% for prediction between 1 and 6 minutes in advance, 96.13% for prediction between 8 and 13 minutes in advance, 94.5% for prediction between 14 and 19 minutes in advance, and 94.2% for prediction between 20 and 25 minutes in advance.

Are abrupt climate changes predictable?

Science.gov (United States)

Ditlevsen, Peter

2013-04-01

It is taken for granted that the limited predictability in the initial value problem, the weather prediction, and the predictability of the statistics are two distinct problems. Lorenz (1975) dubbed this predictability of the first and the second kind respectively. Predictability of the first kind in a chaotic dynamical system is limited due to the well-known critical dependence on initial conditions. Predictability of the second kind is possible in an ergodic system, where either the dynamics is known and the phase space attractor can be characterized by simulation or the system can be observed for such long times that the statistics can be obtained from temporal averaging, assuming that the attractor does not change in time. For the climate system the distinction between predictability of the first and the second kind is fuzzy. This difficulty in distinction between predictability of the first and of the second kind is related to the lack of scale separation between fast and slow components of the climate system. The non-linear nature of the problem furthermore opens the possibility of multiple attractors, or multiple quasi-steady states. As the ice-core records show, the climate has been jumping between different quasi-stationary climates, stadials and interstadials through the Dansgaard-Oechger events. Such a jump happens very fast when a critical tipping point has been reached. The question is: Can such a tipping point be predicted? This is a new kind of predictability: the third kind. If the tipping point is reached through a bifurcation, where the stability of the system is governed by some control parameter, changing in a predictable way to a critical value, the tipping is predictable. If the sudden jump occurs because internal chaotic fluctuations, noise, push the system across a barrier, the tipping is as unpredictable as the triggering noise. In order to hint at an answer to this question, a careful analysis of the high temporal resolution NGRIP isotope

Predicting Free Recalls

Science.gov (United States)

Laming, Donald

2006-01-01

This article reports some calculations on free-recall data from B. Murdock and J. Metcalfe (1978), with vocal rehearsal during the presentation of a list. Given the sequence of vocalizations, with the stimuli inserted in their proper places, it is possible to predict the subsequent sequence of recalls--the predictions taking the form of a…

Deep Visual Attention Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Wenguan; Shen, Jianbing

2018-05-01

In this work, we aim to predict human eye fixation with view-free scenes based on an end-to-end deep learning architecture. Although Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) have made substantial improvement on human attention prediction, it is still needed to improve CNN based attention models by efficiently leveraging multi-scale features. Our visual attention network is proposed to capture hierarchical saliency information from deep, coarse layers with global saliency information to shallow, fine layers with local saliency response. Our model is based on a skip-layer network structure, which predicts human attention from multiple convolutional layers with various reception fields. Final saliency prediction is achieved via the cooperation of those global and local predictions. Our model is learned in a deep supervision manner, where supervision is directly fed into multi-level layers, instead of previous approaches of providing supervision only at the output layer and propagating this supervision back to earlier layers. Our model thus incorporates multi-level saliency predictions within a single network, which significantly decreases the redundancy of previous approaches of learning multiple network streams with different input scales. Extensive experimental analysis on various challenging benchmark datasets demonstrate our method yields state-of-the-art performance with competitive inference time.

A grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model for energy consumption prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling

2014-01-01

Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.

The IntFOLD server: an integrated web resource for protein fold recognition, 3D model quality assessment, intrinsic disorder prediction, domain prediction and ligand binding site prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Roche, Daniel B; Buenavista, Maria T; Tetchner, Stuart J; McGuffin, Liam J

2011-07-01

The IntFOLD server is a novel independent server that integrates several cutting edge methods for the prediction of structure and function from sequence. Our guiding principles behind the server development were as follows: (i) to provide a simple unified resource that makes our prediction software accessible to all and (ii) to produce integrated output for predictions that can be easily interpreted. The output for predictions is presented as a simple table that summarizes all results graphically via plots and annotated 3D models. The raw machine readable data files for each set of predictions are also provided for developers, which comply with the Critical Assessment of Methods for Protein Structure Prediction (CASP) data standards. The server comprises an integrated suite of five novel methods: nFOLD4, for tertiary structure prediction; ModFOLD 3.0, for model quality assessment; DISOclust 2.0, for disorder prediction; DomFOLD 2.0 for domain prediction; and FunFOLD 1.0, for ligand binding site prediction. Predictions from the IntFOLD server were found to be competitive in several categories in the recent CASP9 experiment. The IntFOLD server is available at the following web site: http://www.reading.ac.uk/bioinf/IntFOLD/.

Prediction skill of rainstorm events over India in the TIGGE weather prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Karuna Sagar, S.; Rajeevan, M.; Vijaya Bhaskara Rao, S.; Mitra, A. K.

2017-12-01

Extreme rainfall events pose a serious threat of leading to severe floods in many countries worldwide. Therefore, advance prediction of its occurrence and spatial distribution is very essential. In this paper, an analysis has been made to assess the skill of numerical weather prediction models in predicting rainstorms over India. Using gridded daily rainfall data set and objective criteria, 15 rainstorms were identified during the monsoon season (June to September). The analysis was made using three TIGGE (THe Observing System Research and Predictability Experiment (THORPEX) Interactive Grand Global Ensemble) models. The models considered are the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), National Centre for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the UK Met Office (UKMO). Verification of the TIGGE models for 43 observed rainstorm days from 15 rainstorm events has been made for the period 2007-2015. The comparison reveals that rainstorm events are predictable up to 5 days in advance, however with a bias in spatial distribution and intensity. The statistical parameters like mean error (ME) or Bias, root mean square error (RMSE) and correlation coefficient (CC) have been computed over the rainstorm region using the multi-model ensemble (MME) mean. The study reveals that the spread is large in ECMWF and UKMO followed by the NCEP model. Though the ensemble spread is quite small in NCEP, the ensemble member averages are not well predicted. The rank histograms suggest that the forecasts are under prediction. The modified Contiguous Rain Area (CRA) technique was used to verify the spatial as well as the quantitative skill of the TIGGE models. Overall, the contribution from the displacement and pattern errors to the total RMSE is found to be more in magnitude. The volume error increases from 24 hr forecast to 48 hr forecast in all the three models.

Predicting Well-Being in Europe?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hussain, M. Azhar

2015-01-01

Has the worst financial and economic crisis since the 1930s reduced the subjective wellbeing function's predictive power? Regression models for happiness are estimated for the three first rounds of the European Social Survey (ESS); 2002, 2004 and 2006. Several explanatory variables are significant...... happiness. Nevertheless, 73% of the predictions in 2008 and 57% of predictions in 2010 were within the margin of error. These correct prediction percentages are not unusually low - rather they are slightly higher than before the crisis. It is surprising that happiness predictions are not adversely affected...... by the crisis. On the other hand, results are consistent with the adaption hypothesis. The same exercise is conducted applying life satisfaction instead of happiness, but we reject, against expectation, that (more transient) happiness is harder to predict than life satisfaction. Fifteen ESS countries surveyed...

Prediction of postoperative pain: a systematic review of predictive experimental pain studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Werner, Mads Utke; Mjöbo, Helena N; Nielsen, Per R

2010-01-01

Quantitative testing of a patient's basal pain perception before surgery has the potential to be of clinical value if it can accurately predict the magnitude of pain and requirement of analgesics after surgery. This review includes 14 studies that have investigated the correlation between...... preoperative responses to experimental pain stimuli and clinical postoperative pain and demonstrates that the preoperative pain tests may predict 4-54% of the variance in postoperative pain experience depending on the stimulation methods and the test paradigm used. The predictive strength is much higher than...

When predictions take control: The effect of task predictions on task switching performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wout eDuthoo

2012-08-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we aimed to investigate the role of self-generated predictions in the flexible control of behaviour. Therefore, we ran a task switching experiment in which participants were asked to try to predict the upcoming task in three conditions varying in switch rate (30%, 50% and 70%. Irrespective of their predictions, the colour of the target indicated which task participants had to perform. In line with previous studies (Mayr, 2006; Monsell & Mizon, 2006, the switch cost was attenuated as the switch rate increased. Importantly, a clear task repetition bias was found in all conditions, yet the task repetition prediction rate dropped from 78% over 66% to 49% with increasing switch probability in the three conditions. Irrespective of condition, the switch cost was strongly reduced in expectation of a task alternation compared to the cost of an unexpected task alternation following repetition predictions. Hence, our data suggest that the reduction in the switch cost with increasing switch probability is caused by a diminished expectancy for the task to repeat. Taken together, this paper highlights the importance of predictions in the flexible control of behaviour, and suggests a crucial role for task repetition expectancy in the context-sensitive adjusting of task switching performance.

An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Deng, Xin; Gumm, Jordan; Karki, Suman; Eickholt, Jesse; Cheng, Jianlin

2015-07-07

Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

An Overview of Practical Applications of Protein Disorder Prediction and Drive for Faster, More Accurate Predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xin Deng

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Protein disordered regions are segments of a protein chain that do not adopt a stable structure. Thus far, a variety of protein disorder prediction methods have been developed and have been widely used, not only in traditional bioinformatics domains, including protein structure prediction, protein structure determination and function annotation, but also in many other biomedical fields. The relationship between intrinsically-disordered proteins and some human diseases has played a significant role in disorder prediction in disease identification and epidemiological investigations. Disordered proteins can also serve as potential targets for drug discovery with an emphasis on the disordered-to-ordered transition in the disordered binding regions, and this has led to substantial research in drug discovery or design based on protein disordered region prediction. Furthermore, protein disorder prediction has also been applied to healthcare by predicting the disease risk of mutations in patients and studying the mechanistic basis of diseases. As the applications of disorder prediction increase, so too does the need to make quick and accurate predictions. To fill this need, we also present a new approach to predict protein residue disorder using wide sequence windows that is applicable on the genomic scale.

Confidence scores for prediction models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gerds, Thomas Alexander; van de Wiel, MA

2011-01-01

In medical statistics, many alternative strategies are available for building a prediction model based on training data. Prediction models are routinely compared by means of their prediction performance in independent validation data. If only one data set is available for training and validation,...

Predicting beta-turns and their types using predicted backbone dihedral angles and secondary structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Kountouris, Petros; Hirst, Jonathan D

2010-07-31

Beta-turns are secondary structure elements usually classified as coil. Their prediction is important, because of their role in protein folding and their frequent occurrence in protein chains. We have developed a novel method that predicts beta-turns and their types using information from multiple sequence alignments, predicted secondary structures and, for the first time, predicted dihedral angles. Our method uses support vector machines, a supervised classification technique, and is trained and tested on three established datasets of 426, 547 and 823 protein chains. We achieve a Matthews correlation coefficient of up to 0.49, when predicting the location of beta-turns, the highest reported value to date. Moreover, the additional dihedral information improves the prediction of beta-turn types I, II, IV, VIII and "non-specific", achieving correlation coefficients up to 0.39, 0.33, 0.27, 0.14 and 0.38, respectively. Our results are more accurate than other methods. We have created an accurate predictor of beta-turns and their types. Our method, called DEBT, is available online at http://comp.chem.nottingham.ac.uk/debt/.

A Grey NGM(1,1, k) Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Guo, Xiaojun; Liu, Sifeng; Wu, Lifeng; Tang, Lingling

2014-01-01

Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1, k) model. The traditional grey model's weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1, k) self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span. PMID:25054174

A Grey NGM(1,1,k Self-Memory Coupling Prediction Model for Energy Consumption Prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaojun Guo

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Energy consumption prediction is an important issue for governments, energy sector investors, and other related corporations. Although there are several prediction techniques, selection of the most appropriate technique is of vital importance. As for the approximate nonhomogeneous exponential data sequence often emerging in the energy system, a novel grey NGM(1,1,k self-memory coupling prediction model is put forward in order to promote the predictive performance. It achieves organic integration of the self-memory principle of dynamic system and grey NGM(1,1,k model. The traditional grey model’s weakness as being sensitive to initial value can be overcome by the self-memory principle. In this study, total energy, coal, and electricity consumption of China is adopted for demonstration by using the proposed coupling prediction technique. The results show the superiority of NGM(1,1,k self-memory coupling prediction model when compared with the results from the literature. Its excellent prediction performance lies in that the proposed coupling model can take full advantage of the systematic multitime historical data and catch the stochastic fluctuation tendency. This work also makes a significant contribution to the enrichment of grey prediction theory and the extension of its application span.

Viral IRES prediction system - a web server for prediction of the IRES secondary structure in silico.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jun-Jie Hong

Full Text Available The internal ribosomal entry site (IRES functions as cap-independent translation initiation sites in eukaryotic cells. IRES elements have been applied as useful tools for bi-cistronic expression vectors. Current RNA structure prediction programs are unable to predict precisely the potential IRES element. We have designed a viral IRES prediction system (VIPS to perform the IRES secondary structure prediction. In order to obtain better results for the IRES prediction, the VIPS can evaluate and predict for all four different groups of IRESs with a higher accuracy. RNA secondary structure prediction, comparison, and pseudoknot prediction programs were implemented to form the three-stage procedure for the VIPS. The backbone of VIPS includes: the RNAL fold program, aimed to predict local RNA secondary structures by minimum free energy method; the RNA Align program, intended to compare predicted structures; and pknotsRG program, used to calculate the pseudoknot structure. VIPS was evaluated by using UTR database, IRES database and Virus database, and the accuracy rate of VIPS was assessed as 98.53%, 90.80%, 82.36% and 80.41% for IRES groups 1, 2, 3, and 4, respectively. This advance useful search approach for IRES structures will facilitate IRES related studies. The VIPS on-line website service is available at http://140.135.61.250/vips/.

Numerical prediction of rose growth

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bernsen, E.; Bokhove, Onno; van der Sar, D.M.

2006-01-01

A new mathematical model is presented for the prediction of rose growth in a greenhouse. Given the measured ambient environmental conditions, the model consists of a local photosynthesis model, predicting the photosynthesis per unit leaf area, coupled to a global greenhouse model, which predicts the

Seismology for rockburst prediction.

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

De Beer, W

2000-02-01

Full Text Available project GAP409 presents a method (SOOTHSAY) for predicting larger mining induced seismic events in gold mines, as well as a pattern recognition algorithm (INDICATOR) for characterising the seismic response of rock to mining and inferring future... State. Defining the time series of a specific function on a catalogue as a prediction strategy, the algorithm currently has a success rate of 53% and 65%, respectively, of large events claimed as being predicted in these two cases, with uncertainties...

Collective motion of predictive swarms.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nathaniel Rupprecht

Full Text Available Theoretical models of populations and swarms typically start with the assumption that the motion of agents is governed by the local stimuli. However, an intelligent agent, with some understanding of the laws that govern its habitat, can anticipate the future, and make predictions to gather resources more efficiently. Here we study a specific model of this kind, where agents aim to maximize their consumption of a diffusing resource, by attempting to predict the future of a resource field and the actions of other agents. Once the agents make a prediction, they are attracted to move towards regions that have, and will have, denser resources. We find that the further the agents attempt to see into the future, the more their attempts at prediction fail, and the less resources they consume. We also study the case where predictive agents compete against non-predictive agents and find the predictors perform better than the non-predictors only when their relative numbers are very small. We conclude that predictivity pays off either when the predictors do not see too far into the future or the number of predictors is small.

Neural Networks for protein Structure Prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bohr, Henrik

1998-01-01

This is a review about neural network applications in bioinformatics. Especially the applications to protein structure prediction, e.g. prediction of secondary structures, prediction of surface structure, fold class recognition and prediction of the 3-dimensional structure of protein backbones...

Prediction of resource volumes at untested locations using simple local prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Attanasi, E.D.; Coburn, T.C.; Freeman, P.A.

2006-01-01

This paper shows how local spatial nonparametric prediction models can be applied to estimate volumes of recoverable gas resources at individual undrilled sites, at multiple sites on a regional scale, and to compute confidence bounds for regional volumes based on the distribution of those estimates. An approach that combines cross-validation, the jackknife, and bootstrap procedures is used to accomplish this task. Simulation experiments show that cross-validation can be applied beneficially to select an appropriate prediction model. The cross-validation procedure worked well for a wide range of different states of nature and levels of information. Jackknife procedures are used to compute individual prediction estimation errors at undrilled locations. The jackknife replicates also are used with a bootstrap resampling procedure to compute confidence bounds for the total volume. The method was applied to data (partitioned into a training set and target set) from the Devonian Antrim Shale continuous-type gas play in the Michigan Basin in Otsego County, Michigan. The analysis showed that the model estimate of total recoverable volumes at prediction sites is within 4 percent of the total observed volume. The model predictions also provide frequency distributions of the cell volumes at the production unit scale. Such distributions are the basis for subsequent economic analyses. ?? Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2007.

Adaptive Outlier-tolerant Exponential Smoothing Prediction Algorithms with Applications to Predict the Temperature in Spacecraft

OpenAIRE

Hu Shaolin; Zhang Wei; Li Ye; Fan Shunxi

2011-01-01

The exponential smoothing prediction algorithm is widely used in spaceflight control and in process monitoring as well as in economical prediction. There are two key conundrums which are open: one is about the selective rule of the parameter in the exponential smoothing prediction, and the other is how to improve the bad influence of outliers on prediction. In this paper a new practical outlier-tolerant algorithm is built to select adaptively proper parameter, and the exponential smoothing pr...

Prediction of interannual climate variations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shukla, J.

1993-01-01

It has been known for some time that the behavior of the short-term fluctuations of the earth's atmosphere resembles that of a chaotic non-linear dynamical system, and that the day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. However, it has also been found that the interactions of the atmosphere with the underlying oceans and the land surfaces can produce fluctuations whose time scales are much longer than the limits of deterministic prediction of weather. It is, therefore, natural to ask whether it is possible that the seasonal and longer time averages of climate fluctuations can be predicted with sufficient skill to be beneficial for social and economic applications, even though the details of day-to-day weather cannot be predicted beyond a few weeks. The main objective of the workshop was to address this question by assessing the current state of knowledge on predictability of seasonal and interannual climate variability and to investigate various possibilities for its prediction. (orig./KW)

Dynamical Predictability of Monthly Means.

Science.gov (United States)

Shukla, J.

1981-12-01

We have attempted to determine the theoretical upper limit of dynamical predictability of monthly means for prescribed nonfluctuating external forcings. We have extended the concept of `classical' predictability, which primarily refers to the lack of predictability due mainly to the instabilities of synoptic-scale disturbances, to the predictability of time averages, which are determined by the predictability of low-frequency planetary waves. We have carded out 60-day integrations of a global general circulation model with nine different initial conditions but identical boundary conditions of sea surface temperature, snow, sea ice and soil moisture. Three of these initial conditions are the observed atmospheric conditions on 1 January of 1975, 1976 and 1977. The other six initial conditions are obtained by superimposing over the observed initial conditions a random perturbation comparable to the errors of observation. The root-mean-square (rms) error of random perturbations at all the grid points and all the model levels is 3 m s1 in u and v components of wind. The rms vector wind error between the observed initial conditions is >15 m s1.It is hypothesized that for a given averaging period, if the rms error among the time averages predicted from largely different initial conditions becomes comparable to the rms error among the time averages predicted from randomly perturbed initial conditions, the time averages are dynamically unpredictable. We have carried out the analysis of variance to compare the variability, among the three groups, due to largely different initial conditions, and within each group due to random perturbations.It is found that the variances among the first 30-day means, predicted from largely different initial conditions, are significantly different from the variances due to random perturbations in the initial conditions, whereas the variances among 30-day means for days 31-60 are not distinguishable from the variances due to random initial

Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

OpenAIRE

Shmueli, Galit; Koppius, Otto

2011-01-01

textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as well as methods for assessing predictive power. Predictive analytics not only assist in creating practically useful models, they also play an important role alongside explanatory modeling in theory bu...

Prediction of intermetallic compounds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burkhanov, Gennady S; Kiselyova, N N

2009-01-01

The problems of predicting not yet synthesized intermetallic compounds are discussed. It is noted that the use of classical physicochemical analysis in the study of multicomponent metallic systems is faced with the complexity of presenting multidimensional phase diagrams. One way of predicting new intermetallics with specified properties is the use of modern processing technology with application of teaching of image recognition by the computer. The algorithms used most often in these methods are briefly considered and the efficiency of their use for predicting new compounds is demonstrated.

Learned predictiveness and outcome predictability effects are not simply two sides of the same coin.

Science.gov (United States)

Thorwart, Anna; Livesey, Evan J; Wilhelm, Francisco; Liu, Wei; Lachnit, Harald

2017-10-01

The Learned Predictiveness effect refers to the observation that learning about the relationship between a cue and an outcome is influenced by the predictive relevance of the cue for other outcomes. Similarly, the Outcome Predictability effect refers to a recent observation that the previous predictability of an outcome affects learning about this outcome in new situations, too. We hypothesize that both effects may be two manifestations of the same phenomenon and stimuli that have been involved in highly predictive relationships may be learned about faster when they are involved in new relationships regardless of their functional role in predictive learning as cues and outcomes. Four experiments manipulated both the relationships and the function of the stimuli. While we were able to replicate the standard effects, they did not survive a transfer to situations where the functional role of the stimuli changed, that is the outcome of the first phase becomes a cue in the second learning phase or the cue of the first phase becomes the outcome of the second phase. Furthermore, unlike learned predictiveness, there was little indication that the distribution of overt attention in the second phase was influenced by previous predictability. The results suggest that these 2 very similar effects are not manifestations of a more general phenomenon but rather independent from each other. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

Estimating Model Prediction Error: Should You Treat Predictions as Fixed or Random?

Science.gov (United States)

Wallach, Daniel; Thorburn, Peter; Asseng, Senthold; Challinor, Andrew J.; Ewert, Frank; Jones, James W.; Rotter, Reimund; Ruane, Alexander

2016-01-01

Crop models are important tools for impact assessment of climate change, as well as for exploring management options under current climate. It is essential to evaluate the uncertainty associated with predictions of these models. We compare two criteria of prediction error; MSEP fixed, which evaluates mean squared error of prediction for a model with fixed structure, parameters and inputs, and MSEP uncertain( X), which evaluates mean squared error averaged over the distributions of model structure, inputs and parameters. Comparison of model outputs with data can be used to estimate the former. The latter has a squared bias term, which can be estimated using hindcasts, and a model variance term, which can be estimated from a simulation experiment. The separate contributions to MSEP uncertain (X) can be estimated using a random effects ANOVA. It is argued that MSEP uncertain (X) is the more informative uncertainty criterion, because it is specific to each prediction situation.

Peak-summer East Asian rainfall predictability and prediction part II: extratropical East Asia

Science.gov (United States)

Yim, So-Young; Wang, Bin; Xing, Wen

2016-07-01

The part II of the present study focuses on northern East Asia (NEA: 26°N-50°N, 100°-140°E), exploring the source and limit of the predictability of the peak summer (July-August) rainfall. Prediction of NEA peak summer rainfall is extremely challenging because of the exposure of the NEA to midlatitude influence. By examining four coupled climate models' multi-model ensemble (MME) hindcast during 1979-2010, we found that the domain-averaged MME temporal correlation coefficient (TCC) skill is only 0.13. It is unclear whether the dynamical models' poor skills are due to limited predictability of the peak-summer NEA rainfall. In the present study we attempted to address this issue by applying predictable mode analysis method using 35-year observations (1979-2013). Four empirical orthogonal modes of variability and associated major potential sources of variability are identified: (a) an equatorial western Pacific (EWP)-NEA teleconnection driven by EWP sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, (b) a western Pacific subtropical high and Indo-Pacific dipole SST feedback mode, (c) a central Pacific-El Nino-Southern Oscillation mode, and (d) a Eurasian wave train pattern. Physically meaningful predictors for each principal component (PC) were selected based on analysis of the lead-lag correlations with the persistent and tendency fields of SST and sea-level pressure from March to June. A suite of physical-empirical (P-E) models is established to predict the four leading PCs. The peak summer rainfall anomaly pattern is then objectively predicted by using the predicted PCs and the corresponding observed spatial patterns. A 35-year cross-validated hindcast over the NEA yields a domain-averaged TCC skill of 0.36, which is significantly higher than the MME dynamical hindcast (0.13). The estimated maximum potential attainable TCC skill averaged over the entire domain is around 0.61, suggesting that the current dynamical prediction models may have large rooms to improve

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Integrating geophysics and hydrology for reducing the uncertainty of groundwater model predictions and improved prediction performance

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Nikolaj Kruse; Christensen, Steen; Ferre, Ty

the integration of geophysical data in the construction of a groundwater model increases the prediction performance. We suggest that modelers should perform a hydrogeophysical “test-bench” analysis of the likely value of geophysics data for improving groundwater model prediction performance before actually...... and the resulting predictions can be compared with predictions from the ‘true’ model. By performing this analysis we expect to give the modeler insight into how the uncertainty of model-based prediction can be reduced.......A major purpose of groundwater modeling is to help decision-makers in efforts to manage the natural environment. Increasingly, it is recognized that both the predictions of interest and their associated uncertainties should be quantified to support robust decision making. In particular, decision...

Aircraft noise prediction program theoretical manual: Rotorcraft System Noise Prediction System (ROTONET), part 4

Science.gov (United States)

Weir, Donald S.; Jumper, Stephen J.; Burley, Casey L.; Golub, Robert A.

1995-01-01

This document describes the theoretical methods used in the rotorcraft noise prediction system (ROTONET), which is a part of the NASA Aircraft Noise Prediction Program (ANOPP). The ANOPP code consists of an executive, database manager, and prediction modules for jet engine, propeller, and rotor noise. The ROTONET subsystem contains modules for the prediction of rotor airloads and performance with momentum theory and prescribed wake aerodynamics, rotor tone noise with compact chordwise and full-surface solutions to the Ffowcs-Williams-Hawkings equations, semiempirical airfoil broadband noise, and turbulence ingestion broadband noise. Flight dynamics, atmosphere propagation, and noise metric calculations are covered in NASA TM-83199, Parts 1, 2, and 3.

Time-predictable Stack Caching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Abbaspourseyedi, Sahar

completely. Thus, in systems with hard deadlines the worst-case execution time (WCET) of the real-time software running on them needs to be bounded. Modern architectures use features such as pipelining and caches for improving the average performance. These features, however, make the WCET analysis more...... addresses, provides an opportunity to predict and tighten the WCET of accesses to data in caches. In this thesis, we introduce the time-predictable stack cache design and implementation within a time-predictable processor. We introduce several optimizations to our design for tightening the WCET while...... keeping the timepredictability of the design intact. Moreover, we provide a solution for reducing the cost of context switching in a system using the stack cache. In design of these caches, we use custom hardware and compiler support for delivering time-predictable stack data accesses. Furthermore...

Implementation of short-term prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Landberg, L; Joensen, A; Giebel, G [and others

1999-03-01

This paper will giver a general overview of the results from a EU JOULE funded project (`Implementing short-term prediction at utilities`, JOR3-CT95-0008). Reference will be given to specialised papers where applicable. The goal of the project was to implement wind farm power output prediction systems in operational environments at a number of utilities in Europe. Two models were developed, one by Risoe and one by the Technical University of Denmark (DTU). Both prediction models used HIRLAM predictions from the Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI). (au) EFP-94; EU-JOULE. 11 refs.

Earthquake prediction by Kina Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kianoosh, H.; Keypour, H.; Naderzadeh, A.; Motlagh, H.F.

2005-01-01

Earthquake prediction has been one of the earliest desires of the man. Scientists have worked hard to predict earthquakes for a long time. The results of these efforts can generally be divided into two methods of prediction: 1) Statistical Method, and 2) Empirical Method. In the first method, earthquakes are predicted using statistics and probabilities, while the second method utilizes variety of precursors for earthquake prediction. The latter method is time consuming and more costly. However, the result of neither method has fully satisfied the man up to now. In this paper a new method entitled 'Kiana Method' is introduced for earthquake prediction. This method offers more accurate results yet lower cost comparing to other conventional methods. In Kiana method the electrical and magnetic precursors are measured in an area. Then, the time and the magnitude of an earthquake in the future is calculated using electrical, and in particular, electrical capacitors formulas. In this method, by daily measurement of electrical resistance in an area we make clear that the area is capable of earthquake occurrence in the future or not. If the result shows a positive sign, then the occurrence time and the magnitude can be estimated by the measured quantities. This paper explains the procedure and details of this prediction method. (authors)

Audiovisual biofeedback improves motion prediction accuracy.

Science.gov (United States)

Pollock, Sean; Lee, Danny; Keall, Paul; Kim, Taeho

2013-04-01

The accuracy of motion prediction, utilized to overcome the system latency of motion management radiotherapy systems, is hampered by irregularities present in the patients' respiratory pattern. Audiovisual (AV) biofeedback has been shown to reduce respiratory irregularities. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that AV biofeedback improves the accuracy of motion prediction. An AV biofeedback system combined with real-time respiratory data acquisition and MR images were implemented in this project. One-dimensional respiratory data from (1) the abdominal wall (30 Hz) and (2) the thoracic diaphragm (5 Hz) were obtained from 15 healthy human subjects across 30 studies. The subjects were required to breathe with and without the guidance of AV biofeedback during each study. The obtained respiratory signals were then implemented in a kernel density estimation prediction algorithm. For each of the 30 studies, five different prediction times ranging from 50 to 1400 ms were tested (150 predictions performed). Prediction error was quantified as the root mean square error (RMSE); the RMSE was calculated from the difference between the real and predicted respiratory data. The statistical significance of the prediction results was determined by the Student's t-test. Prediction accuracy was considerably improved by the implementation of AV biofeedback. Of the 150 respiratory predictions performed, prediction accuracy was improved 69% (103/150) of the time for abdominal wall data, and 78% (117/150) of the time for diaphragm data. The average reduction in RMSE due to AV biofeedback over unguided respiration was 26% (p biofeedback improves prediction accuracy. This would result in increased efficiency of motion management techniques affected by system latencies used in radiotherapy.

The trickle-down effect of predictability: Secondary task performance benefits from predictability in the primary task.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Magdalena Ewa Król

Full Text Available Predictions optimize processing by reducing attentional resources allocation to expected or predictable sensory data. Our study demonstrates that these saved processing resources can be then used on concurrent stimuli, and in consequence improve their processing and encoding. We illustrate this "trickle-down" effect with a dual task, where the primary task varied in terms of predictability. The primary task involved detection of a pre-specified symbol that appeared at some point of a short video of a dot moving along a random, semi-predictable or predictable trajectory. The concurrent secondary task involved memorization of photographs representing either emotionally neutral or non-neutral (social or threatening content. Performance in the secondary task was measured by a memory test. We found that participants allocated more attention to unpredictable (random and semi-predictable stimuli than to predictable stimuli. Additionally, when the stimuli in the primary task were more predictable, participants performed better in the secondary task, as evidenced by higher sensitivity in the memory test. Finally, social or threatening stimuli were allocated more "looking time" and a larger number of saccades than neutral stimuli. This effect was stronger for the threatening stimuli than social stimuli. Thus, predictability of environmental input is used in optimizing the allocation of attentional resources, which trickles-down and benefits the processing of concurrent stimuli.

The trickle-down effect of predictability: Secondary task performance benefits from predictability in the primary task.

Science.gov (United States)

Król, Magdalena Ewa; Król, Michał

2017-01-01

Predictions optimize processing by reducing attentional resources allocation to expected or predictable sensory data. Our study demonstrates that these saved processing resources can be then used on concurrent stimuli, and in consequence improve their processing and encoding. We illustrate this "trickle-down" effect with a dual task, where the primary task varied in terms of predictability. The primary task involved detection of a pre-specified symbol that appeared at some point of a short video of a dot moving along a random, semi-predictable or predictable trajectory. The concurrent secondary task involved memorization of photographs representing either emotionally neutral or non-neutral (social or threatening) content. Performance in the secondary task was measured by a memory test. We found that participants allocated more attention to unpredictable (random and semi-predictable) stimuli than to predictable stimuli. Additionally, when the stimuli in the primary task were more predictable, participants performed better in the secondary task, as evidenced by higher sensitivity in the memory test. Finally, social or threatening stimuli were allocated more "looking time" and a larger number of saccades than neutral stimuli. This effect was stronger for the threatening stimuli than social stimuli. Thus, predictability of environmental input is used in optimizing the allocation of attentional resources, which trickles-down and benefits the processing of concurrent stimuli.

NOAA's National Air Quality Prediction and Development of Aerosol and Atmospheric Composition Prediction Components for NGGPS

Science.gov (United States)

Stajner, I.; McQueen, J.; Lee, P.; Stein, A. F.; Wilczak, J. M.; Upadhayay, S.; daSilva, A.; Lu, C. H.; Grell, G. A.; Pierce, R. B.

2017-12-01

NOAA's operational air quality predictions of ozone, fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and wildfire smoke over the United States and airborne dust over the contiguous 48 states are distributed at http://airquality.weather.gov. The National Air Quality Forecast Capability (NAQFC) providing these predictions was updated in June 2017. Ozone and PM2.5 predictions are now produced using the system linking the Community Multiscale Air Quality model (CMAQ) version 5.0.2 with meteorological inputs from the North American Mesoscale Forecast System (NAM) version 4. Predictions of PM2.5 include intermittent dust emissions and wildfire emissions from an updated version of BlueSky system. For the latter, the CMAQ system is initialized by rerunning it over the previous 24 hours to include wildfire emissions at the time when they were observed from the satellites. Post processing to reduce the bias in PM2.5 prediction was updated using the Kalman filter analog (KFAN) technique. Dust related aerosol species at the CMAQ domain lateral boundaries now come from the NEMS Global Aerosol Component (NGAC) v2 predictions. Further development of NAQFC includes testing of CMAQ predictions to 72 hours, Canadian fire emissions data from Environment and Climate Change Canada (ECCC) and the KFAN technique to reduce bias in ozone predictions. NOAA is developing the Next Generation Global Predictions System (NGGPS) with an aerosol and gaseous atmospheric composition component to improve and integrate aerosol and ozone predictions and evaluate their impacts on physics, data assimilation and weather prediction. Efforts are underway to improve cloud microphysics, investigate aerosol effects and include representations of atmospheric composition of varying complexity into NGGPS: from the operational ozone parameterization, GOCART aerosols, with simplified ozone chemistry, to CMAQ chemistry with aerosol modules. We will present progress on community building, planning and development of NGGPS.

Archaeological predictive model set.

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-01

This report is the documentation for Task 7 of the Statewide Archaeological Predictive Model Set. The goal of this project is to : develop a set of statewide predictive models to assist the planning of transportation projects. PennDOT is developing t...

Branch prediction in the pentium family

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fog, Agner

1998-01-01

How the branch prediction mechanism in the Pentium has been uncovered with all its quirks, and the incredibly more effective branch prediction in the later versions.......How the branch prediction mechanism in the Pentium has been uncovered with all its quirks, and the incredibly more effective branch prediction in the later versions....

Prediction during sentence comprehension in aphasia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Walsh Dickey

2014-04-01

Full Text Available Much recent psycholinguistic work has focused on prediction in language comprehension (Altmann & Kamide, 1999; Federmeier, 2007; Levy, 2008. Unimpaired adults predict upcoming words and phrases based on material in the preceding context, like verbs (Altmann & Kamide, 1999 or constraining sentence contexts (Federmeier, 2007. Several models have tied rapid prediction to the language production system (Federmeier, 2007; Pickering & Garrod, 2013; Dell & Chang, 2014. Evidence for this link comes from that fact that older adults with lower verbal fluency show less predictive behavior (Federmeier, et al., 2010; DeLong, et al., 2012. Prediction in aphasic language comprehension has not been widely investigated, even though constraining sentence contexts are strongly facilitative for naming in aphasia (e.g., Love & Webb, 1977. Mack, et al. (2013 found in a visual-world task that people with aphasia (PWA do not predict upcoming objects based on verbs (cf. Altmann & Kamide, 1999. This finding suggests that prediction may be reduced in aphasia. However, it is unclear whether reduced prediction was caused by language-production impairments: all the PWA in their study had non-fluent aphasia. The current study examined whether PWA show evidence of prediction based on constraining sentence contexts (e.g., Federmeier, 2007. Specifically, it tested whether they exhibited facilitation for highly predictable words in reading, using materials that have previously demonstrated strong predictability effects for unimpaired adults (Rayner, et al., 2004. In addition, it tested whether differences in language-production ability among PWA accounted for differences in predictive behavior (viz. Pickering & Garrod, 2013; Dell & Chang, 2014. Eight PWA read sentences adapted from Rayner, et al. (2004 in a self-paced reading task. The materials crossed word frequency with predictability: high- vs. low-frequency words (bottle/diaper were preceded by contexts which made them

Stuck pipe prediction

KAUST Repository

Alzahrani, Majed; Alsolami, Fawaz; Chikalov, Igor; Algharbi, Salem; Aboudi, Faisal; Khudiri, Musab

2016-01-01

Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

Stuck pipe prediction

KAUST Repository

Alzahrani, Majed

2016-03-10

Disclosed are various embodiments for a prediction application to predict a stuck pipe. A linear regression model is generated from hook load readings at corresponding bit depths. A current hook load reading at a current bit depth is compared with a normal hook load reading from the linear regression model. A current hook load greater than a normal hook load for a given bit depth indicates the likelihood of a stuck pipe.

EMMPRIN promotes melanoma cells malignant properties through a HIF-2alpha mediated up-regulation of VEGF-receptor-2.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Faten Bougatef

Full Text Available EMMPRIN's expression in melanoma tissue was reported to be predictive of poor prognosis. Here we demonstrate that EMMPRIN up-regulated VEGF receptor-2 (VEGFR-2 in two different primary melanoma cell lines and consequently increased migration and proliferation of these cells while inhibiting their apoptosis. SiRNA inhibition of VEGFR-2 expression abrogated these EMMPRIN effects. EMMPRIN regulation of VEGFR-2 was mediated through the over-expression of HIF-2alpha and its translocation to the nucleus where it forms heterodimers with HIF-1beta. These results were supported by an in vivo correlation between the expression of EMMPRIN with that of VEGFR-2 in human melanoma tissues as well as with the extent of HIF-2alpha localization in the nucleus. They demonstrate a novel mechanism by which EMMPRIN promotes tumor progression through HIF-2alpha/VEGFR-2 mediated mechanism, with an autocrine role in melanoma cell malignancy. The inhibition of EMMPRIN in cancer may thus simultaneously target both the VEGFR-2/VEGF system and the matrix degrading proteases to block tumor cell growth and invasion.

Earthquake predictions using seismic velocity ratios

Science.gov (United States)

Sherburne, R. W.

1979-01-01

Since the beginning of modern seismology, seismologists have contemplated predicting earthquakes. The usefulness of earthquake predictions to the reduction of human and economic losses and the value of long-range earthquake prediction to planning is obvious. Not as clear are the long-range economic and social impacts of earthquake prediction to a speicifc area. The general consensus of opinion among scientists and government officials, however, is that the quest of earthquake prediction is a worthwhile goal and should be prusued with a sense of urgency. 

Predictive Biomarkers for Asthma Therapy.

Science.gov (United States)

Medrek, Sarah K; Parulekar, Amit D; Hanania, Nicola A

2017-09-19

Asthma is a heterogeneous disease characterized by multiple phenotypes. Treatment of patients with severe disease can be challenging. Predictive biomarkers are measurable characteristics that reflect the underlying pathophysiology of asthma and can identify patients that are likely to respond to a given therapy. This review discusses current knowledge regarding predictive biomarkers in asthma. Recent trials evaluating biologic therapies targeting IgE, IL-5, IL-13, and IL-4 have utilized predictive biomarkers to identify patients who might benefit from treatment. Other work has suggested that using composite biomarkers may offer enhanced predictive capabilities in tailoring asthma therapy. Multiple biomarkers including sputum eosinophil count, blood eosinophil count, fractional concentration of nitric oxide in exhaled breath (FeNO), and serum periostin have been used to identify which patients will respond to targeted asthma medications. Further work is needed to integrate predictive biomarkers into clinical practice.

Towards Predictive Association Theories

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kontogeorgis, Georgios; Tsivintzelis, Ioannis; Michelsen, Michael Locht

2011-01-01

Association equations of state like SAFT, CPA and NRHB have been previously applied to many complex mixtures. In this work we focus on two of these models, the CPA and the NRHB equations of state and the emphasis is on the analysis of their predictive capabilities for a wide range of applications....... We use the term predictive in two situations: (i) with no use of binary interaction parameters, and (ii) multicomponent calculations using binary interaction parameters based solely on binary data. It is shown that the CPA equation of state can satisfactorily predict CO2–water–glycols–alkanes VLE...

Selecting Optimal Random Forest Predictive Models: A Case Study on Predicting the Spatial Distribution of Seabed Hardness

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jin; Tran, Maggie; Siwabessy, Justy

2016-01-01

Spatially continuous predictions of seabed hardness are important baseline environmental information for sustainable management of Australia’s marine jurisdiction. Seabed hardness is often inferred from multibeam backscatter data with unknown accuracy and can be inferred from underwater video footage at limited locations. In this study, we classified the seabed into four classes based on two new seabed hardness classification schemes (i.e., hard90 and hard70). We developed optimal predictive models to predict seabed hardness using random forest (RF) based on the point data of hardness classes and spatially continuous multibeam data. Five feature selection (FS) methods that are variable importance (VI), averaged variable importance (AVI), knowledge informed AVI (KIAVI), Boruta and regularized RF (RRF) were tested based on predictive accuracy. Effects of highly correlated, important and unimportant predictors on the accuracy of RF predictive models were examined. Finally, spatial predictions generated using the most accurate models were visually examined and analysed. This study confirmed that: 1) hard90 and hard70 are effective seabed hardness classification schemes; 2) seabed hardness of four classes can be predicted with a high degree of accuracy; 3) the typical approach used to pre-select predictive variables by excluding highly correlated variables needs to be re-examined; 4) the identification of the important and unimportant predictors provides useful guidelines for further improving predictive models; 5) FS methods select the most accurate predictive model(s) instead of the most parsimonious ones, and AVI and Boruta are recommended for future studies; and 6) RF is an effective modelling method with high predictive accuracy for multi-level categorical data and can be applied to ‘small p and large n’ problems in environmental sciences. Additionally, automated computational programs for AVI need to be developed to increase its computational efficiency and

Predicting Ideological Prejudice.

Science.gov (United States)

Brandt, Mark J

2017-06-01

A major shortcoming of current models of ideological prejudice is that although they can anticipate the direction of the association between participants' ideology and their prejudice against a range of target groups, they cannot predict the size of this association. I developed and tested models that can make specific size predictions for this association. A quantitative model that used the perceived ideology of the target group as the primary predictor of the ideology-prejudice relationship was developed with a representative sample of Americans ( N = 4,940) and tested against models using the perceived status of and choice to belong to the target group as predictors. In four studies (total N = 2,093), ideology-prejudice associations were estimated, and these observed estimates were compared with the models' predictions. The model that was based only on perceived ideology was the most parsimonious with the smallest errors.

Predicting visibility of aircraft.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Watson

Full Text Available Visual detection of aircraft by human observers is an important element of aviation safety. To assess and ensure safety, it would be useful to be able to be able to predict the visibility, to a human observer, of an aircraft of specified size, shape, distance, and coloration. Examples include assuring safe separation among aircraft and between aircraft and unmanned vehicles, design of airport control towers, and efforts to enhance or suppress the visibility of military and rescue vehicles. We have recently developed a simple metric of pattern visibility, the Spatial Standard Observer (SSO. In this report we examine whether the SSO can predict visibility of simulated aircraft images. We constructed a set of aircraft images from three-dimensional computer graphic models, and measured the luminance contrast threshold for each image from three human observers. The data were well predicted by the SSO. Finally, we show how to use the SSO to predict visibility range for aircraft of arbitrary size, shape, distance, and coloration.

Psychometric prediction of penitentiary recidivism.

Science.gov (United States)

Medina García, Pedro M; Baños Rivera, Rosa M

2016-05-01

Attempts to predict prison recidivism based on the personality have not been very successful. This study aims to provide data on recidivism prediction based on the scores on a personality questionnaire. For this purpose, a predictive model combining the actuarial procedure with a posteriori probability was developed, consisting of the probabilistic calculation of the effective verification of the event once it has already occurred. Cuestionario de Personalidad Situacional (CPS; Fernández, Seisdedos, & Mielgo, 1998) was applied to 978 male inmates classified as recidivists or non-recidivists. High predictive power was achieved, with the area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 (p <.001; Se = 0.012; 95% CI [0.826, 0.873]. The answers to the CPS items made it possible to properly discriminate 77.3% of the participants. These data indicate the important role of the personality as a key factor in understanding delinquency and predicting recidivism.

Growth hormone biases amygdala network activation after fear learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Gisabella, B; Farah, S; Peng, X; Burgos-Robles, A; Lim, S H; Goosens, K A

2016-11-29

Prolonged stress exposure is a risk factor for developing posttraumatic stress disorder, a disorder characterized by the 'over-encoding' of a traumatic experience. A potential mechanism by which this occurs is through upregulation of growth hormone (GH) in the amygdala. Here we test the hypotheses that GH promotes the over-encoding of fearful memories by increasing the number of neurons activated during memory encoding and biasing the allocation of neuronal activation, one aspect of the process by which neurons compete to encode memories, to favor neurons that have stronger inputs. Viral overexpression of GH in the amygdala increased the number of amygdala cells activated by fear memory formation. GH-overexpressing cells were especially biased to express the immediate early gene c-Fos after fear conditioning, revealing strong autocrine actions of GH in the amygdala. In addition, we observed dramatically enhanced dendritic spine density in GH-overexpressing neurons. These data elucidate a previously unrecognized autocrine role for GH in the regulation of amygdala neuron function and identify specific mechanisms by which chronic stress, by enhancing GH in the amygdala, may predispose an individual to excessive fear memory formation.

[Theory humoral pathology K Rokitansky, cellular phathology R Virchov and new phylogenetic theory disease development. Ethyology and pathogenesis of metabolic pandemias].

Science.gov (United States)

Titov, V N

2013-01-01

Virchow's cellular pathology indirectly points at structural units between cells and organs in vivo and at universal mechanisms underlying the condition of health or disease. In order to substantiate similarity of pathogeneses of atherosclerosis, diabetes mellitus, metabolic syndrome and obesity we suggest a phylogenetic theory which includes: 1) consideration of physiological and pathological processes in vivo from the viewpoint of biological functions and biological reactions. 2) Phylogenesis of metabolic regulation at the levels of: a) cells (autocrine), b) paracrine cell communities, i.e., structural and functional units of each organ (paracrine), and c) the entire organism. Biological functions are: trophology, homeostasis, endoecology ( of the intercellular medium), adaptation, locomotion, reproduction, and cognition. 3) A three-step successive phylogenesis of biological functions and pathological responses. Methodological approaches in phylogenesis are: a) succession of biological functions and reactions and b) biological subordination where phylogenetically late humoral mediators cannot abolish the effects of phylogenetically early mediators. Incompliance of humoral regulation at different steps of phylogenesis, autocrine, paracrine and the organism levels is the basis for similarity between pathogeneses of all metabolic pandemias, including essential hypertension and insulin resistance syndrome.

Univariate Time Series Prediction of Solar Power Using a Hybrid Wavelet-ARMA-NARX Prediction Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nazaripouya, Hamidreza; Wang, Yubo; Chu, Chi-Cheng; Pota, Hemanshu; Gadh, Rajit

2016-05-02

This paper proposes a new hybrid method for super short-term solar power prediction. Solar output power usually has a complex, nonstationary, and nonlinear characteristic due to intermittent and time varying behavior of solar radiance. In addition, solar power dynamics is fast and is inertia less. An accurate super short-time prediction is required to compensate for the fluctuations and reduce the impact of solar power penetration on the power system. The objective is to predict one step-ahead solar power generation based only on historical solar power time series data. The proposed method incorporates discrete wavelet transform (DWT), Auto-Regressive Moving Average (ARMA) models, and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNN), while the RNN architecture is based on Nonlinear Auto-Regressive models with eXogenous inputs (NARX). The wavelet transform is utilized to decompose the solar power time series into a set of richer-behaved forming series for prediction. ARMA model is employed as a linear predictor while NARX is used as a nonlinear pattern recognition tool to estimate and compensate the error of wavelet-ARMA prediction. The proposed method is applied to the data captured from UCLA solar PV panels and the results are compared with some of the common and most recent solar power prediction methods. The results validate the effectiveness of the proposed approach and show a considerable improvement in the prediction precision.

Verification, validation, and reliability of predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pigford, T.H.; Chambre, P.L.

1987-04-01

The objective of predicting long-term performance should be to make reliable determinations of whether the prediction falls within the criteria for acceptable performance. Establishing reliable predictions of long-term performance of a waste repository requires emphasis on valid theories to predict performance. The validation process must establish the validity of the theory, the parameters used in applying the theory, the arithmetic of calculations, and the interpretation of results; but validation of such performance predictions is not possible unless there are clear criteria for acceptable performance. Validation programs should emphasize identification of the substantive issues of prediction that need to be resolved. Examples relevant to waste package performance are predicting the life of waste containers and the time distribution of container failures, establishing the criteria for defining container failure, validating theories for time-dependent waste dissolution that depend on details of the repository environment, and determining the extent of congruent dissolution of radionuclides in the UO 2 matrix of spent fuel. Prediction and validation should go hand in hand and should be done and reviewed frequently, as essential tools for the programs to design and develop repositories. 29 refs

Predicting DNA-binding proteins and binding residues by complex structure prediction and application to human proteome.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huiying Zhao

Full Text Available As more and more protein sequences are uncovered from increasingly inexpensive sequencing techniques, an urgent task is to find their functions. This work presents a highly reliable computational technique for predicting DNA-binding function at the level of protein-DNA complex structures, rather than low-resolution two-state prediction of DNA-binding as most existing techniques do. The method first predicts protein-DNA complex structure by utilizing the template-based structure prediction technique HHblits, followed by binding affinity prediction based on a knowledge-based energy function (Distance-scaled finite ideal-gas reference state for protein-DNA interactions. A leave-one-out cross validation of the method based on 179 DNA-binding and 3797 non-binding protein domains achieves a Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC of 0.77 with high precision (94% and high sensitivity (65%. We further found 51% sensitivity for 82 newly determined structures of DNA-binding proteins and 56% sensitivity for the human proteome. In addition, the method provides a reasonably accurate prediction of DNA-binding residues in proteins based on predicted DNA-binding complex structures. Its application to human proteome leads to more than 300 novel DNA-binding proteins; some of these predicted structures were validated by known structures of homologous proteins in APO forms. The method [SPOT-Seq (DNA] is available as an on-line server at http://sparks-lab.org.

Potential for western US seasonal snowpack prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Kapnick, Sarah B.; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Gudgel, Rich; Malyshev, Sergey; Milly, Paul C. D.; Shevliakova, Elena; Underwood, Seth; Margulis, Steven A.

2018-01-01

Western US snowpack—snow that accumulates on the ground in the mountains—plays a critical role in regional hydroclimate and water supply, with 80% of snowmelt runoff being used for agriculture. While climate projections provide estimates of snowpack loss by the end of th ecentury and weather forecasts provide predictions of weather conditions out to 2 weeks, less progress has been made for snow predictions at seasonal timescales (months to 2 years), crucial for regional agricultural decisions (e.g., plant choice and quantity). Seasonal predictions with climate models first took the form of El Niño predictions 3 decades ago, with hydroclimate predictions emerging more recently. While the field has been focused on single-season predictions (3 months or less), we are now poised to advance our predictions beyond this timeframe. Utilizing observations, climate indices, and a suite of global climate models, we demonstrate the feasibility of seasonal snowpack predictions and quantify the limits of predictive skill 8 month sin advance. This physically based dynamic system outperforms observation-based statistical predictions made on July 1 for March snowpack everywhere except the southern Sierra Nevada, a region where prediction skill is nonexistent for every predictor presently tested. Additionally, in the absence of externally forced negative trends in snowpack, narrow maritime mountain ranges with high hydroclimate variability pose a challenge for seasonal prediction in our present system; natural snowpack variability may inherently be unpredictable at this timescale. This work highlights present prediction system successes and gives cause for optimism for developing seasonal predictions for societal needs.

Right Lateral Cerebellum Represents Linguistic Predictability.

Science.gov (United States)

Lesage, Elise; Hansen, Peter C; Miall, R Chris

2017-06-28

Mounting evidence indicates that posterolateral portions of the cerebellum (right Crus I/II) contribute to language processing, but the nature of this role remains unclear. Based on a well-supported theory of cerebellar motor function, which ascribes to the cerebellum a role in short-term prediction through internal modeling, we hypothesize that right cerebellar Crus I/II supports prediction of upcoming sentence content. We tested this hypothesis using event-related fMRI in male and female human subjects by manipulating the predictability of written sentences. Our design controlled for motor planning and execution, as well as for linguistic features and working memory load; it also allowed separation of the prediction interval from the presentation of the final sentence item. In addition, three further fMRI tasks captured semantic, phonological, and orthographic processing to shed light on the nature of the information processed. As hypothesized, activity in right posterolateral cerebellum correlated with the predictability of the upcoming target word. This cerebellar region also responded to prediction error during the outcome of the trial. Further, this region was engaged in phonological, but not semantic or orthographic, processing. This is the first imaging study to demonstrate a right cerebellar contribution in language comprehension independently from motor, cognitive, and linguistic confounds. These results complement our work using other methodologies showing cerebellar engagement in linguistic prediction and suggest that internal modeling of phonological representations aids language production and comprehension. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT The cerebellum is traditionally seen as a motor structure that allows for smooth movement by predicting upcoming signals. However, the cerebellum is also consistently implicated in nonmotor functions such as language and working memory. Using fMRI, we identify a cerebellar area that is active when words are predicted and

Controlled test for predictive power of Lyapunov exponents: their inability to predict epileptic seizures.

Science.gov (United States)

Lai, Ying-Cheng; Harrison, Mary Ann F; Frei, Mark G; Osorio, Ivan

2004-09-01

Lyapunov exponents are a set of fundamental dynamical invariants characterizing a system's sensitive dependence on initial conditions. For more than a decade, it has been claimed that the exponents computed from electroencephalogram (EEG) or electrocorticogram (ECoG) signals can be used for prediction of epileptic seizures minutes or even tens of minutes in advance. The purpose of this paper is to examine the predictive power of Lyapunov exponents. Three approaches are employed. (1) We present qualitative arguments suggesting that the Lyapunov exponents generally are not useful for seizure prediction. (2) We construct a two-dimensional, nonstationary chaotic map with a parameter slowly varying in a range containing a crisis, and test whether this critical event can be predicted by monitoring the evolution of finite-time Lyapunov exponents. This can thus be regarded as a "control test" for the claimed predictive power of the exponents for seizure. We find that two major obstacles arise in this application: statistical fluctuations of the Lyapunov exponents due to finite time computation and noise from the time series. We show that increasing the amount of data in a moving window will not improve the exponents' detective power for characteristic system changes, and that the presence of small noise can ruin completely the predictive power of the exponents. (3) We report negative results obtained from ECoG signals recorded from patients with epilepsy. All these indicate firmly that, the use of Lyapunov exponents for seizure prediction is practically impossible as the brain dynamical system generating the ECoG signals is more complicated than low-dimensional chaotic systems, and is noisy. Copyright 2004 American Institute of Physics

Wind power prediction models

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, R.; Mcginness, H.

1976-01-01

Investigations were performed to predict the power available from the wind at the Goldstone, California, antenna site complex. The background for power prediction was derived from a statistical evaluation of available wind speed data records at this location and at nearby locations similarly situated within the Mojave desert. In addition to a model for power prediction over relatively long periods of time, an interim simulation model that produces sample wind speeds is described. The interim model furnishes uncorrelated sample speeds at hourly intervals that reproduce the statistical wind distribution at Goldstone. A stochastic simulation model to provide speed samples representative of both the statistical speed distributions and correlations is also discussed.

Prediction ranges. Annual review

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Parker, J.C.; Tharp, W.H.; Spiro, P.S.; Keng, K.; Angastiniotis, M.; Hachey, L.T.

1988-01-01

Prediction ranges equip the planner with one more tool for improved assessment of the outcome of a course of action. One of their major uses is in financial evaluations, where corporate policy requires the performance of uncertainty analysis for large projects. This report gives an overview of the uses of prediction ranges, with examples; and risks and uncertainties in growth, inflation, and interest and exchange rates. Prediction ranges and standard deviations of 80% and 50% probability are given for various economic indicators in Ontario, Canada, and the USA, as well as for foreign exchange rates and Ontario Hydro interest rates. An explanatory note on probability is also included. 23 tabs.

Long Range Aircraft Trajectory Prediction

OpenAIRE

Magister, Tone

2009-01-01

The subject of the paper is the improvement of the aircraft future trajectory prediction accuracy for long-range airborne separation assurance. The strategic planning of safe aircraft flights and effective conflict avoidance tactics demand timely and accurate conflict detection based upon future four–dimensional airborne traffic situation prediction which is as accurate as each aircraft flight trajectory prediction. The improved kinematics model of aircraft relative flight considering flight ...

Prediction of molecular crystal structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Beyer, Theresa

2001-01-01

The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol -1 of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

Prediction of molecular crystal structures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Beyer, Theresa

2001-07-01

The ab initio prediction of molecular crystal structures is a scientific challenge. Reliability of first-principle prediction calculations would show a fundamental understanding of crystallisation. Crystal structure prediction is also of considerable practical importance as different crystalline arrangements of the same molecule in the solid state (polymorphs)are likely to have different physical properties. A method of crystal structure prediction based on lattice energy minimisation has been developed in this work. The choice of the intermolecular potential and of the molecular model is crucial for the results of such studies and both of these criteria have been investigated. An empirical atom-atom repulsion-dispersion potential for carboxylic acids has been derived and applied in a crystal structure prediction study of formic, benzoic and the polymorphic system of tetrolic acid. As many experimental crystal structure determinations at different temperatures are available for the polymorphic system of paracetamol (acetaminophen), the influence of the variations of the molecular model on the crystal structure lattice energy minima, has also been studied. The general problem of prediction methods based on the assumption that the experimental thermodynamically stable polymorph corresponds to the global lattice energy minimum, is that more hypothetical low lattice energy structures are found within a few kJ mol{sup -1} of the global minimum than are likely to be experimentally observed polymorphs. This is illustrated by the results for molecule I, 3-oxabicyclo(3.2.0)hepta-1,4-diene, studied for the first international blindtest for small organic crystal structures organised by the Cambridge Crystallographic Data Centre (CCDC) in May 1999. To reduce the number of predicted polymorphs, additional factors to thermodynamic criteria have to be considered. Therefore the elastic constants and vapour growth morphologies have been calculated for the lowest lattice energy

Multi-Objective Predictive Balancing Control of Battery Packs Based on Predictive Current

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wenbiao Li

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Various balancing topology and control methods have been proposed for the inconsistency problem of battery packs. However, these strategies only focus on a single objective, ignore the mutual interaction among various factors and are only based on the external performance of the battery pack inconsistency, such as voltage balancing and state of charge (SOC balancing. To solve these problems, multi-objective predictive balancing control (MOPBC based on predictive current is proposed in this paper, namely, in the driving process of an electric vehicle, using predictive control to predict the battery pack output current the next time. Based on this information, the impact of the battery pack temperature caused by the output current can be obtained. Then, the influence is added to the battery pack balancing control, which makes the present degradation, temperature, and SOC imbalance achieve balance automatically due to the change of the output current the next moment. According to MOPBC, the simulation model of the balancing circuit is built with four cells in Matlab/Simulink. The simulation results show that MOPBC is not only better than the other traditional balancing control strategies but also reduces the energy loss in the balancing process.

Genomic Prediction of Barley Hybrid Performance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norman Philipp

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Hybrid breeding in barley ( L. offers great opportunities to accelerate the rate of genetic improvement and to boost yield stability. A crucial requirement consists of the efficient selection of superior hybrid combinations. We used comprehensive phenotypic and genomic data from a commercial breeding program with the goal of examining the potential to predict the hybrid performances. The phenotypic data were comprised of replicated grain yield trials for 385 two-way and 408 three-way hybrids evaluated in up to 47 environments. The parental lines were genotyped using a 3k single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP array based on an Illumina Infinium assay. We implemented ridge regression best linear unbiased prediction modeling for additive and dominance effects and evaluated the prediction ability using five-fold cross validations. The prediction ability of hybrid performances based on general combining ability (GCA effects was moderate, amounting to 0.56 and 0.48 for two- and three-way hybrids, respectively. The potential of GCA-based hybrid prediction requires that both parental components have been evaluated in a hybrid background. This is not necessary for genomic prediction for which we also observed moderate cross-validated prediction abilities of 0.51 and 0.58 for two- and three-way hybrids, respectively. This exemplifies the potential of genomic prediction in hybrid barley. Interestingly, prediction ability using the two-way hybrids as training population and the three-way hybrids as test population or vice versa was low, presumably, because of the different genetic makeup of the parental source populations. Consequently, further research is needed to optimize genomic prediction approaches combining different source populations in barley.

Decadel climate prediction: challenges and opportunities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hurrell, J W

2008-01-01

The scientific understanding of climate change is now sufficiently clear to show that climate change from global warming is already upon us, and the rate of change as projected exceeds anything seen in nature in the past 10,000 years. Uncertainties remain, however, especially regarding how climate will change at regional and local scales where the signal of natural variability is large. Addressing many of these uncertainties will require a movement toward high resolution climate system predictions, with a blurring of the distinction between shorter-term predictions and longer-term climate projections. The key is the realization that climate system predictions, regardless of timescale, will require initialization of coupled general circulation models with best estimates of the current observed state of the atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, and land surface. Formidable challenges exist: for instance, what is the best method of initialization given imperfect observations and systematic errors in models? What effect does initialization have on climate predictions? What predictions should be attempted, and how would they be verified? Despite such challenges, the unrealized predictability that resides in slowly evolving phenomena, such as ocean current systems, is of paramount importance for society to plan and adapt for the next few decades. Moreover, initialized climate predictions will require stronger collaboration with shared knowledge, infrastructure and technical capabilities among those in the weather and climate prediction communities. The potential benefits include improved understanding and predictions on all time scales

A highly accurate predictive-adaptive method for lithium-ion battery remaining discharge energy prediction in electric vehicle applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Guangming; Ouyang, Minggao; Lu, Languang; Li, Jianqiu; Hua, Jianfeng

2015-01-01

Highlights: • An energy prediction (EP) method is introduced for battery E RDE determination. • EP determines E RDE through coupled prediction of future states, parameters, and output. • The PAEP combines parameter adaptation and prediction to update model parameters. • The PAEP provides improved E RDE accuracy compared with DC and other EP methods. - Abstract: In order to estimate the remaining driving range (RDR) in electric vehicles, the remaining discharge energy (E RDE ) of the applied battery system needs to be precisely predicted. Strongly affected by the load profiles, the available E RDE varies largely in real-world applications and requires specific determination. However, the commonly-used direct calculation (DC) method might result in certain energy prediction errors by relating the E RDE directly to the current state of charge (SOC). To enhance the E RDE accuracy, this paper presents a battery energy prediction (EP) method based on the predictive control theory, in which a coupled prediction of future battery state variation, battery model parameter change, and voltage response, is implemented on the E RDE prediction horizon, and the E RDE is subsequently accumulated and real-timely optimized. Three EP approaches with different model parameter updating routes are introduced, and the predictive-adaptive energy prediction (PAEP) method combining the real-time parameter identification and the future parameter prediction offers the best potential. Based on a large-format lithium-ion battery, the performance of different E RDE calculation methods is compared under various dynamic profiles. Results imply that the EP methods provide much better accuracy than the traditional DC method, and the PAEP could reduce the E RDE error by more than 90% and guarantee the relative energy prediction error under 2%, proving as a proper choice in online E RDE prediction. The correlation of SOC estimation and E RDE calculation is then discussed to illustrate the

Spatial Economics Model Predicting Transport Volume

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lu Bo

2016-10-01

Full Text Available It is extremely important to predict the logistics requirements in a scientific and rational way. However, in recent years, the improvement effect on the prediction method is not very significant and the traditional statistical prediction method has the defects of low precision and poor interpretation of the prediction model, which cannot only guarantee the generalization ability of the prediction model theoretically, but also cannot explain the models effectively. Therefore, in combination with the theories of the spatial economics, industrial economics, and neo-classical economics, taking city of Zhuanghe as the research object, the study identifies the leading industry that can produce a large number of cargoes, and further predicts the static logistics generation of the Zhuanghe and hinterlands. By integrating various factors that can affect the regional logistics requirements, this study established a logistics requirements potential model from the aspect of spatial economic principles, and expanded the way of logistics requirements prediction from the single statistical principles to an new area of special and regional economics.

Prediction-based dynamic load-sharing heuristics

Science.gov (United States)

Goswami, Kumar K.; Devarakonda, Murthy; Iyer, Ravishankar K.

1993-01-01

The authors present dynamic load-sharing heuristics that use predicted resource requirements of processes to manage workloads in a distributed system. A previously developed statistical pattern-recognition method is employed for resource prediction. While nonprediction-based heuristics depend on a rapidly changing system status, the new heuristics depend on slowly changing program resource usage patterns. Furthermore, prediction-based heuristics can be more effective since they use future requirements rather than just the current system state. Four prediction-based heuristics, two centralized and two distributed, are presented. Using trace driven simulations, they are compared against random scheduling and two effective nonprediction based heuristics. Results show that the prediction-based centralized heuristics achieve up to 30 percent better response times than the nonprediction centralized heuristic, and that the prediction-based distributed heuristics achieve up to 50 percent improvements relative to their nonprediction counterpart.

Sports Tournament Predictions Using Direct Manipulation.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuillemot, Romain; Perin, Charles

2016-01-01

An advanced interface for sports tournament predictions uses direct manipulation to allow users to make nonlinear predictions. Unlike previous interface designs, the interface helps users focus on their prediction tasks by enabling them to first choose a winner and then fill out the rest of the bracket. In real-world tests of the proposed interface (for the 2014 FIFA World Cup tournament and 2015/2016 UEFA Champions League), the authors validated the use of direct manipulation as an alternative to widgets. Using visitor interaction logs, they were able to determine the strategies people use to perform predictions and identify potential areas of improvement for further prediction interfaces.

Potentiating effects of GHRH analogs on the response to chemotherapy

OpenAIRE

Schally, Andrew V; Perez, Roberto; Block, Norman L; Rick, Ferenc G

2015-01-01

Growth hormone releasing hormone (GHRH) from hypothalamus nominatively stimulates growth hormone release from adenohypophysis. GHRH is also produced by cancers, acting as an autocrine/paracrine growth factor. This growth factor function is seen in lymphoma, melanoma, colorectal, liver, lung, breast, prostate, kidney, bladder cancers. Pituitary type GHRH receptors and their splice variants are also expressed in these malignancies. Synthetic antagonists of the GHRH receptor inhibit proliferatio...

Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability

Science.gov (United States)

Schorlemmer, D.; Jordan, T. H.; Zechar, J. D.; Gerstenberger, M. C.; Wiemer, S.; Maechling, P. J.

2006-12-01

Earthquake prediction is one of the most difficult problems in physical science and, owing to its societal implications, one of the most controversial. The study of earthquake predictability has been impeded by the lack of an adequate experimental infrastructure---the capability to conduct scientific prediction experiments under rigorous, controlled conditions and evaluate them using accepted criteria specified in advance. To remedy this deficiency, the Southern California Earthquake Center (SCEC) is working with its international partners, which include the European Union (through the Swiss Seismological Service) and New Zealand (through GNS Science), to develop a virtual, distributed laboratory with a cyberinfrastructure adequate to support a global program of research on earthquake predictability. This Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) will extend the testing activities of SCEC's Working Group on Regional Earthquake Likelihood Models, from which we will present first results. CSEP will support rigorous procedures for registering prediction experiments on regional and global scales, community-endorsed standards for assessing probability-based and alarm-based predictions, access to authorized data sets and monitoring products from designated natural laboratories, and software to allow researchers to participate in prediction experiments. CSEP will encourage research on earthquake predictability by supporting an environment for scientific prediction experiments that allows the predictive skill of proposed algorithms to be rigorously compared with standardized reference methods and data sets. It will thereby reduce the controversies surrounding earthquake prediction, and it will allow the results of prediction experiments to be communicated to the scientific community, governmental agencies, and the general public in an appropriate research context.

Concise Review: Multifaceted Characterization of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Use in Regenerative Medicine

Science.gov (United States)

Samsonraj, Rebekah M.; Raghunath, Michael; Nurcombe, Victor; Hui, James H.

2017-01-01

Abstract Mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) hold great potential for regenerative medicine because of their ability for self‐renewal and differentiation into tissue‐specific cells such as osteoblasts, chondrocytes, and adipocytes. MSCs orchestrate tissue development, maintenance and repair, and are useful for musculoskeletal regenerative therapies to treat age‐related orthopedic degenerative diseases and other clinical conditions. Importantly, MSCs produce secretory factors that play critical roles in tissue repair that support both engraftment and trophic functions (autocrine and paracrine). The development of uniform protocols for both preparation and characterization of MSCs, including standardized functional assays for evaluation of their biological potential, are critical factors contributing to their clinical utility. Quality control and release criteria for MSCs should include cell surface markers, differentiation potential, and other essential cell parameters. For example, cell surface marker profiles (surfactome), bone‐forming capacities in ectopic and orthotopic models, as well as cell size and granularity, telomere length, senescence status, trophic factor secretion (secretome), and immunomodulation, should be thoroughly assessed to predict MSC utility for regenerative medicine. We propose that these and other functionalities of MSCs should be characterized prior to use in clinical applications as part of comprehensive and uniform guidelines and release criteria for their clinical‐grade production to achieve predictably favorable treatment outcomes for stem cell therapy. Stem Cells Translational Medicine 2017;6:2173–2185 PMID:29076267

Predictive Analytics in Information Systems Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

G. Shmueli (Galit); O.R. Koppius (Otto)

2011-01-01

textabstractThis research essay highlights the need to integrate predictive analytics into information systems research and shows several concrete ways in which this goal can be accomplished. Predictive analytics include empirical methods (statistical and other) that generate data predictions as

Bitter or not? BitterPredict, a tool for predicting taste from chemical structure.

Science.gov (United States)

Dagan-Wiener, Ayana; Nissim, Ido; Ben Abu, Natalie; Borgonovo, Gigliola; Bassoli, Angela; Niv, Masha Y

2017-09-21

Bitter taste is an innately aversive taste modality that is considered to protect animals from consuming toxic compounds. Yet, bitterness is not always noxious and some bitter compounds have beneficial effects on health. Hundreds of bitter compounds were reported (and are accessible via the BitterDB http://bitterdb.agri.huji.ac.il/dbbitter.php ), but numerous additional bitter molecules are still unknown. The dramatic chemical diversity of bitterants makes bitterness prediction a difficult task. Here we present a machine learning classifier, BitterPredict, which predicts whether a compound is bitter or not, based on its chemical structure. BitterDB was used as the positive set, and non-bitter molecules were gathered from literature to create the negative set. Adaptive Boosting (AdaBoost), based on decision trees machine-learning algorithm was applied to molecules that were represented using physicochemical and ADME/Tox descriptors. BitterPredict correctly classifies over 80% of the compounds in the hold-out test set, and 70-90% of the compounds in three independent external sets and in sensory test validation, providing a quick and reliable tool for classifying large sets of compounds into bitter and non-bitter groups. BitterPredict suggests that about 40% of random molecules, and a large portion (66%) of clinical and experimental drugs, and of natural products (77%) are bitter.

Evaluating predictions of critical oxygen desaturation events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

ElMoaqet, Hisham; Tilbury, Dawn M; Ramachandran, Satya Krishna

2014-01-01

This paper presents a new approach for evaluating predictions of oxygen saturation levels in blood ( SpO 2 ). A performance metric based on a threshold is proposed to evaluate  SpO 2 predictions based on whether or not they are able to capture critical desaturations in the  SpO 2 time series of patients. We use linear auto-regressive models built using historical  SpO 2 data to predict critical desaturation events with the proposed metric. In 20 s prediction intervals, 88%–94% of the critical events were captured with positive predictive values (PPVs) between 90% and 99%. Increasing the prediction horizon to 60 s, 46%–71% of the critical events were detected with PPVs between 81% and 97%. In both prediction horizons, more than 97% of the non-critical events were correctly classified. The overall classification capabilities for the developed predictive models were also investigated. The area under ROC curves for 60 s predictions from the developed models are between 0.86 and 0.98. Furthermore, we investigate the effect of including pulse rate (PR) dynamics in the models and predictions. We show no improvement in the percentage of the predicted critical desaturations if PR dynamics are incorporated into the  SpO 2 predictive models (p-value = 0.814). We also show that including the PR dynamics does not improve the earliest time at which critical  SpO 2 levels are predicted (p-value = 0.986). Our results indicate oxygen in blood is an effective input to the PR rather than vice versa. We demonstrate that the combination of predictive models with frequent pulse oximetry measurements can be used as a warning of critical oxygen desaturations that may have adverse effects on the health of patients. (paper)

Neural Elements for Predictive Coding

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stewart SHIPP

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backwards in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many ‘illusory’ instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forwards and backwards pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry – that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions – has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic ‘canonical microcircuit’ and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b rapid technical advances made

Neural Elements for Predictive Coding.

Science.gov (United States)

Shipp, Stewart

2016-01-01

Predictive coding theories of sensory brain function interpret the hierarchical construction of the cerebral cortex as a Bayesian, generative model capable of predicting the sensory data consistent with any given percept. Predictions are fed backward in the hierarchy and reciprocated by prediction error in the forward direction, acting to modify the representation of the outside world at increasing levels of abstraction, and so to optimize the nature of perception over a series of iterations. This accounts for many 'illusory' instances of perception where what is seen (heard, etc.) is unduly influenced by what is expected, based on past experience. This simple conception, the hierarchical exchange of prediction and prediction error, confronts a rich cortical microcircuitry that is yet to be fully documented. This article presents the view that, in the current state of theory and practice, it is profitable to begin a two-way exchange: that predictive coding theory can support an understanding of cortical microcircuit function, and prompt particular aspects of future investigation, whilst existing knowledge of microcircuitry can, in return, influence theoretical development. As an example, a neural inference arising from the earliest formulations of predictive coding is that the source populations of forward and backward pathways should be completely separate, given their functional distinction; this aspect of circuitry - that neurons with extrinsically bifurcating axons do not project in both directions - has only recently been confirmed. Here, the computational architecture prescribed by a generalized (free-energy) formulation of predictive coding is combined with the classic 'canonical microcircuit' and the laminar architecture of hierarchical extrinsic connectivity to produce a template schematic, that is further examined in the light of (a) updates in the microcircuitry of primate visual cortex, and (b) rapid technical advances made possible by transgenic neural

Predicting Anthracycline Benefit

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bartlett, John M S; McConkey, Christopher C; Munro, Alison F

2015-01-01

PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite as measu......PURPOSE: Evidence supporting the clinical utility of predictive biomarkers of anthracycline activity is weak, with a recent meta-analysis failing to provide strong evidence for either HER2 or TOP2A. Having previously shown that duplication of chromosome 17 pericentromeric alpha satellite...

Linguistic Structure Prediction

CERN Document Server

Smith, Noah A

2011-01-01

A major part of natural language processing now depends on the use of text data to build linguistic analyzers. We consider statistical, computational approaches to modeling linguistic structure. We seek to unify across many approaches and many kinds of linguistic structures. Assuming a basic understanding of natural language processing and/or machine learning, we seek to bridge the gap between the two fields. Approaches to decoding (i.e., carrying out linguistic structure prediction) and supervised and unsupervised learning of models that predict discrete structures as outputs are the focus. W

Unification predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ghilencea, D.; Ross, G.G.; Lanzagorta, M.

1997-07-01

The unification of gauge couplings suggests that there is an underlying (supersymmetric) unification of the strong, electromagnetic and weak interactions. The prediction of the unification scale may be the first quantitative indication that this unification may extend to unification with gravity. We make a precise determination of these predictions for a class of models which extend the multiplet structure of the Minimal Supersymmetric Standard Model to include the heavy states expected in many Grand Unified and/or superstring theories. We show that there is a strong cancellation between the 2-loop and threshold effects. As a result the net effect is smaller than previously thought, giving a small increase in both the unification scale and the value of the strong coupling at low energies. (author). 15 refs, 5 figs

Predicting community composition from pairwise interactions

Science.gov (United States)

Friedman, Jonathan; Higgins, Logan; Gore, Jeff

The ability to predict the structure of complex, multispecies communities is crucial for understanding the impact of species extinction and invasion on natural communities, as well as for engineering novel, synthetic communities. Communities are often modeled using phenomenological models, such as the classical generalized Lotka-Volterra (gLV) model. While a lot of our intuition comes from such models, their predictive power has rarely been tested experimentally. To directly assess the predictive power of this approach, we constructed synthetic communities comprised of up to 8 soil bacteria. We measured the outcome of competition between all species pairs, and used these measurements to predict the composition of communities composed of more than 2 species. The pairwise competitions resulted in a diverse set of outcomes, including coexistence, exclusion, and bistability, and displayed evidence for both interference and facilitation. Most pair outcomes could be captured by the gLV framework, and the composition of multispecies communities could be predicted for communities composed solely of such pairs. Our results demonstrate the predictive ability and utility of simple phenomenology, which enables accurate predictions in the absence of mechanistic details.

Prediction of GNSS satellite clocks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Broederbauer, V.

2010-01-01

This thesis deals with the characterisation and prediction of GNSS-satellite-clocks. A prerequisite to develop powerful algorithms for the prediction of clock-corrections is the thorough study of the behaviour of the different clock-types of the satellites. In this context the predicted part of the IGU-clock-corrections provided by the Analysis Centers (ACs) of the IGS was compared to the IGS-Rapid-clock solutions to determine reasonable estimates of the quality of already existing well performing predictions. For the shortest investigated interval (three hours) all ACs obtain almost the same accuracy of 0,1 to 0,4 ns. For longer intervals the individual predictions results start to diverge. Thus, for a 12-hours- interval the differences range from nearly 10 ns (GFZ, CODE) until up to some 'tens of ns'. Based on the estimated clock corrections provided via the IGS Rapid products a simple quadratic polynomial turns out to be sufficient to describe the time series of Rubidium-clocks. On the other hand Cesium-clocks show a periodical behaviour (revolution period) with an amplitude of up to 6 ns. A clear correlation between these amplitudes and the Sun elevation angle above the orbital planes can be demonstrated. The variability of the amplitudes is supposed to be caused by temperature-variations affecting the oscillator. To account for this periodical behaviour a quadratic polynomial with an additional sinus-term was finally chosen as prediction model both for the Cesium as well as for the Rubidium clocks. The three polynomial-parameters as well as amplitude and phase shift of the periodic term are estimated within a least-square-adjustment by means of program GNSS-VC/static. Input-data are time series of the observed part of the IGU clock corrections. With the estimated parameters clock-corrections are predicted for various durations. The mean error of the prediction of Rubidium-clock-corrections for an interval of six hours reaches up to 1,5 ns. For the 12-hours

Comparison of Prediction-Error-Modelling Criteria

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Jørgensen, Sten Bay

2007-01-01

Single and multi-step prediction-error-methods based on the maximum likelihood and least squares criteria are compared. The prediction-error methods studied are based on predictions using the Kalman filter and Kalman predictors for a linear discrete-time stochastic state space model, which is a r...

Semen analysis and prediction of natural conception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Leushuis, Esther; van der Steeg, Jan Willem; Steures, Pieternel; Repping, Sjoerd; Bossuyt, Patrick M. M.; Mol, Ben Willem J.; Hompes, Peter G. A.; van der Veen, Fulco

2014-01-01

Do two semen analyses predict natural conception better than a single semen analysis and will adding the results of repeated semen analyses to a prediction model for natural pregnancy improve predictions? A second semen analysis does not add helpful information for predicting natural conception

Evaluating the Predictive Value of Growth Prediction Models

Science.gov (United States)

Murphy, Daniel L.; Gaertner, Matthew N.

2014-01-01

This study evaluates four growth prediction models--projection, student growth percentile, trajectory, and transition table--commonly used to forecast (and give schools credit for) middle school students' future proficiency. Analyses focused on vertically scaled summative mathematics assessments, and two performance standards conditions (high…

Comprehensive update of the atomic mass predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haustein, P.E.

1987-01-01

A project has been completed recently for a comprehensive update of atomic mass predictions. This last occurred in 1976. Over the last 10 years the reliability of these earlier predictions (and others published later) has been analyzed by comparisons of the predictions with new masses from isotopes that were not in the experimental data base when the predictions were prepared. This analysis has highlighted distinct systematic features in various models which frequently result in poor predictions for nuclei that lie far from stability. An overview of the new predictions from models with different theoretical approaches will be presented

Efficient predictive algorithms for image compression

CERN Document Server

Rosário Lucas, Luís Filipe; Maciel de Faria, Sérgio Manuel; Morais Rodrigues, Nuno Miguel; Liberal Pagliari, Carla

2017-01-01

This book discusses efficient prediction techniques for the current state-of-the-art High Efficiency Video Coding (HEVC) standard, focusing on the compression of a wide range of video signals, such as 3D video, Light Fields and natural images. The authors begin with a review of the state-of-the-art predictive coding methods and compression technologies for both 2D and 3D multimedia contents, which provides a good starting point for new researchers in the field of image and video compression. New prediction techniques that go beyond the standardized compression technologies are then presented and discussed. In the context of 3D video, the authors describe a new predictive algorithm for the compression of depth maps, which combines intra-directional prediction, with flexible block partitioning and linear residue fitting. New approaches are described for the compression of Light Field and still images, which enforce sparsity constraints on linear models. The Locally Linear Embedding-based prediction method is in...

Prediction of Protein Configurational Entropy (Popcoen).

Science.gov (United States)

Goethe, Martin; Gleixner, Jan; Fita, Ignacio; Rubi, J Miguel

2018-03-13

A knowledge-based method for configurational entropy prediction of proteins is presented; this methodology is extremely fast, compared to previous approaches, because it does not involve any type of configurational sampling. Instead, the configurational entropy of a query fold is estimated by evaluating an artificial neural network, which was trained on molecular-dynamics simulations of ∼1000 proteins. The predicted entropy can be incorporated into a large class of protein software based on cost-function minimization/evaluation, in which configurational entropy is currently neglected for performance reasons. Software of this type is used for all major protein tasks such as structure predictions, proteins design, NMR and X-ray refinement, docking, and mutation effect predictions. Integrating the predicted entropy can yield a significant accuracy increase as we show exemplarily for native-state identification with the prominent protein software FoldX. The method has been termed Popcoen for Prediction of Protein Configurational Entropy. An implementation is freely available at http://fmc.ub.edu/popcoen/ .

House Price Prediction Using LSTM

OpenAIRE

Chen, Xiaochen; Wei, Lai; Xu, Jiaxin

2017-01-01

In this paper, we use the house price data ranging from January 2004 to October 2016 to predict the average house price of November and December in 2016 for each district in Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou and Shenzhen. We apply Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average model to generate the baseline while LSTM networks to build prediction model. These algorithms are compared in terms of Mean Squared Error. The result shows that the LSTM model has excellent properties with respect to predict time...

Predictability of Stock Returns

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmet Sekreter

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Predictability of stock returns has been shown by empirical studies over time. This article collects the most important theories on forecasting stock returns and investigates the factors that affecting behavior of the stocks’ prices and the market as a whole. Estimation of the factors and the way of estimation are the key issues of predictability of stock returns.

Prediction of beta-turns at over 80% accuracy based on an ensemble of predicted secondary structures and multiple alignments.

Science.gov (United States)

Zheng, Ce; Kurgan, Lukasz

2008-10-10

beta-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays significant role in protein folding, stability, and molecular recognition. To date, several methods for prediction of beta-turns from protein sequences were developed, but they are characterized by relatively poor prediction quality. The novelty of the proposed sequence-based beta-turn predictor stems from the usage of a window based information extracted from four predicted three-state secondary structures, which together with a selected set of position specific scoring matrix (PSSM) values serve as an input to the support vector machine (SVM) predictor. We show that (1) all four predicted secondary structures are useful; (2) the most useful information extracted from the predicted secondary structure includes the structure of the predicted residue, secondary structure content in a window around the predicted residue, and features that indicate whether the predicted residue is inside a secondary structure segment; (3) the PSSM values of Asn, Asp, Gly, Ile, Leu, Met, Pro, and Val were among the top ranked features, which corroborates with recent studies. The Asn, Asp, Gly, and Pro indicate potential beta-turns, while the remaining four amino acids are useful to predict non-beta-turns. Empirical evaluation using three nonredundant datasets shows favorable Q total, Q predicted and MCC values when compared with over a dozen of modern competing methods. Our method is the first to break the 80% Q total barrier and achieves Q total = 80.9%, MCC = 0.47, and Q predicted higher by over 6% when compared with the second best method. We use feature selection to reduce the dimensionality of the feature vector used as the input for the proposed prediction method. The applied feature set is smaller by 86, 62 and 37% when compared with the second and two third-best (with respect to MCC) competing methods, respectively. Experiments show that the proposed method constitutes an improvement over the competing prediction

Predictive coding in Agency Detection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Marc Malmdorf

2017-01-01

Agency detection is a central concept in the cognitive science of religion (CSR). Experimental studies, however, have so far failed to lend support to some of the most common predictions that follow from current theories on agency detection. In this article, I argue that predictive coding, a highly...... promising new framework for understanding perception and action, may solve pending theoretical inconsistencies in agency detection research, account for the puzzling experimental findings mentioned above, and provide hypotheses for future experimental testing. Predictive coding explains how the brain......, unbeknownst to consciousness, engages in sophisticated Bayesian statistics in an effort to constantly predict the hidden causes of sensory input. My fundamental argument is that most false positives in agency detection can be seen as the result of top-down interference in a Bayesian system generating high...

Predictions of High Energy Experimental Results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Comay E.

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Eight predictions of high energy experimental results are presented. The predictions contain the $Sigma ^+$ charge radius and results of two kinds of experiments using energetic pionic beams. In addition, predictions of the failure to find the following objects are presented: glueballs, pentaquarks, Strange Quark Matter, magnetic monopoles searched by their direct interaction with charges and the Higgs boson. The first seven predictions rely on the Regular Charge-Monopole Theory and the last one relies on mathematical inconsistencies of the Higgs Lagrangian density.

Adaptive filtering prediction and control

CERN Document Server

Goodwin, Graham C

2009-01-01

Preface1. Introduction to Adaptive TechniquesPart 1. Deterministic Systems2. Models for Deterministic Dynamical Systems3. Parameter Estimation for Deterministic Systems4. Deterministic Adaptive Prediction5. Control of Linear Deterministic Systems6. Adaptive Control of Linear Deterministic SystemsPart 2. Stochastic Systems7. Optimal Filtering and Prediction8. Parameter Estimation for Stochastic Dynamic Systems9. Adaptive Filtering and Prediction10. Control of Stochastic Systems11. Adaptive Control of Stochastic SystemsAppendicesA. A Brief Review of Some Results from Systems TheoryB. A Summary o

Prediction Models for Dynamic Demand Response

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aman, Saima; Frincu, Marc; Chelmis, Charalampos; Noor, Muhammad; Simmhan, Yogesh; Prasanna, Viktor K.

2015-11-02

As Smart Grids move closer to dynamic curtailment programs, Demand Response (DR) events will become necessary not only on fixed time intervals and weekdays predetermined by static policies, but also during changing decision periods and weekends to react to real-time demand signals. Unique challenges arise in this context vis-a-vis demand prediction and curtailment estimation and the transformation of such tasks into an automated, efficient dynamic demand response (D²R) process. While existing work has concentrated on increasing the accuracy of prediction models for DR, there is a lack of studies for prediction models for D²R, which we address in this paper. Our first contribution is the formal definition of D²R, and the description of its challenges and requirements. Our second contribution is a feasibility analysis of very-short-term prediction of electricity consumption for D²R over a diverse, large-scale dataset that includes both small residential customers and large buildings. Our third, and major contribution is a set of insights into the predictability of electricity consumption in the context of D²R. Specifically, we focus on prediction models that can operate at a very small data granularity (here 15-min intervals), for both weekdays and weekends - all conditions that characterize scenarios for D²R. We find that short-term time series and simple averaging models used by Independent Service Operators and utilities achieve superior prediction accuracy. We also observe that workdays are more predictable than weekends and holiday. Also, smaller customers have large variation in consumption and are less predictable than larger buildings. Key implications of our findings are that better models are required for small customers and for non-workdays, both of which are critical for D²R. Also, prediction models require just few days’ worth of data indicating that small amounts of

Seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kryjov, Vladimir N

2012-01-01

An overview of the current status of the operational seasonal climate prediction for North Eurasia is presented. It is shown that the performance of existing climate models is rather poor in seasonal prediction for North Eurasia. Multi-model ensemble forecasts are more reliable than single-model ones; however, for North Eurasia they tend to be close to climatological ones. Application of downscaling methods may improve predictions for some locations (or regions). However, general improvement of the reliability of seasonal forecasts for North Eurasia requires improvement of the climate prediction models. (letter)

Entropy and the Predictability of Online Life

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roberta Sinatra

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Using mobile phone records and information theory measures, our daily lives have been recently shown to follow strict statistical regularities, and our movement patterns are, to a large extent, predictable. Here, we apply entropy and predictability measures to two datasets of the behavioral actions and the mobility of a large number of players in the virtual universe of a massive multiplayer online game. We find that movements in virtual human lives follow the same high levels of predictability as offline mobility, where future movements can, to some extent, be predicted well if the temporal correlations of visited places are accounted for. Time series of behavioral actions show similar high levels of predictability, even when temporal correlations are neglected. Entropy conditional on specific behavioral actions reveals that in terms of predictability, negative behavior has a wider variety than positive actions. The actions that contain the information to best predict an individual’s subsequent action are negative, such as attacks or enemy markings, while the positive actions of friendship marking, trade and communication contain the least amount of predictive information. These observations show that predicting behavioral actions requires less information than predicting the mobility patterns of humans for which the additional knowledge of past visited locations is crucial and that the type and sign of a social relation has an essential impact on the ability to determine future behavior.

Phenology prediction component of GypsES

Science.gov (United States)

Jesse A. Logan; Lukas P. Schaub; F. William Ravlin

1991-01-01

Prediction of phenology is an important component of most pest management programs, and considerable research effort has been expended toward development of predictive tools for gypsy moth phenology. Although phenological prediction is potentially valuable for timing of spray applications (e.g. Bt, or Gypcheck) and other management activities (e.g. placement and...

A Game Theoretic Approach to Cyber Attack Prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Peng Liu

2005-11-28

The area investigated by this project is cyber attack prediction. With a focus on correlation-based prediction, current attack prediction methodologies overlook the strategic nature of cyber attack-defense scenarios. As a result, current cyber attack prediction methodologies are very limited in predicting strategic behaviors of attackers in enforcing nontrivial cyber attacks such as DDoS attacks, and may result in low accuracy in correlation-based predictions. This project develops a game theoretic framework for cyber attack prediction, where an automatic game-theory-based attack prediction method is proposed. Being able to quantitatively predict the likelihood of (sequences of) attack actions, our attack prediction methodology can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers and may greatly improve the accuracy of correlation-based prediction. To our best knowledge, this project develops the first comprehensive framework for incentive-based modeling and inference of attack intent, objectives, and strategies; and this project develops the first method that can predict fine-grained strategic behaviors of attackers. The significance of this research and the benefit to the public can be demonstrated to certain extent by (a) the severe threat of cyber attacks to the critical infrastructures of the nation, including many infrastructures overseen by the Department of Energy, (b) the importance of cyber security to critical infrastructure protection, and (c) the importance of cyber attack prediction to achieving cyber security.

Postprocessing for Air Quality Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Delle Monache, L.

2017-12-01

In recent year, air quality (AQ) forecasting has made significant progress towards better predictions with the goal of protecting the public from harmful pollutants. This progress is the results of improvements in weather and chemical transport models, their coupling, and more accurate emission inventories (e.g., with the development of new algorithms to account in near real-time for fires). Nevertheless, AQ predictions are still affected at times by significant biases which stem from limitations in both weather and chemistry transport models. Those are the result of numerical approximations and the poor representation (and understanding) of important physical and chemical process. Moreover, although the quality of emission inventories has been significantly improved, they are still one of the main sources of uncertainties in AQ predictions. For operational real-time AQ forecasting, a significant portion of these biases can be reduced with the implementation of postprocessing methods. We will review some of the techniques that have been proposed to reduce both systematic and random errors of AQ predictions, and improve the correlation between predictions and observations of ground-level ozone and surface particulate matter less than 2.5 µm in diameter (PM2.5). These methods, which can be applied to both deterministic and probabilistic predictions, include simple bias-correction techniques, corrections inspired by the Kalman filter, regression methods, and the more recently developed analog-based algorithms. These approaches will be compared and contrasted, and strength and weaknesses of each will be discussed.

Lightning prediction using radiosonde data

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weng, L.Y.; Bin Omar, J.; Siah, Y.K.; Bin Zainal Abidin, I.; Ahmad, S.K. [Univ. Tenaga, Darul Ehsan (Malaysia). College of Engineering

2008-07-01

Lightning is a natural phenomenon in tropical regions. Malaysia experiences very high cloud-to-ground lightning density, posing both health and economic concerns to individuals and industries. In the commercial sector, power lines, telecommunication towers and buildings are most frequently hit by lightning. In the event that a power line is hit and the protection system fails, industries which rely on that power line would cease operations temporarily, resulting in significant monetary loss. Current technology is unable to prevent lightning occurrences. However, the ability to predict lightning would significantly reduce damages from direct and indirect lightning strikes. For that reason, this study focused on developing a method to predict lightning with radiosonde data using only a simple back propagation neural network model written in C code. The study was performed at the Kuala Lumpur International Airport (KLIA). In this model, the parameters related to wind were disregarded. Preliminary results indicate that this method shows some positive results in predicting lighting. However, a larger dataset is needed in order to obtain more accurate predictions. It was concluded that future work should include wind parameters to fully capture all properties for lightning formation, subsequently its prediction. 8 refs., 5 figs.

In silico prediction of genotoxicity.

Science.gov (United States)

Wichard, Jörg D

2017-08-01

The in silico prediction of genotoxicity has made considerable progress during the last years. The main driver for the pharmaceutical industry is the ICH M7 guideline about the assessment of DNA reactive impurities. An important component of this guideline is the use of in silico models as an alternative approach to experimental testing. The in silico prediction of genotoxicity provides an established and accepted method that defines the first step in the assessment of DNA reactive impurities. This was made possible by the growing amount of reliable Ames screening data, the attempts to understand the activity pathways and the subsequent development of computer-based prediction systems. This paper gives an overview of how the in silico prediction of genotoxicity is performed under the ICH M7 guideline. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction based on mean subset

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Øjelund, Henrik; Brown, P. J.; Madsen, Henrik

2002-01-01

, it is found that the proposed mean subset method has superior prediction performance than prediction based on the best subset method, and in some settings also better than the ridge regression and lasso methods. The conclusions drawn from the Monte Carlo study is corroborated in an example in which prediction......Shrinkage methods have traditionally been applied in prediction problems. In this article we develop a shrinkage method (mean subset) that forms an average of regression coefficients from individual subsets of the explanatory variables. A Bayesian approach is taken to derive an expression of how...... the coefficient vectors from each subset should be weighted. It is not computationally feasible to calculate the mean subset coefficient vector for larger problems, and thus we suggest an algorithm to find an approximation to the mean subset coefficient vector. In a comprehensive Monte Carlo simulation study...

Global skin colour prediction from DNA.

Science.gov (United States)

Walsh, Susan; Chaitanya, Lakshmi; Breslin, Krystal; Muralidharan, Charanya; Bronikowska, Agnieszka; Pospiech, Ewelina; Koller, Julia; Kovatsi, Leda; Wollstein, Andreas; Branicki, Wojciech; Liu, Fan; Kayser, Manfred

2017-07-01

Human skin colour is highly heritable and externally visible with relevance in medical, forensic, and anthropological genetics. Although eye and hair colour can already be predicted with high accuracies from small sets of carefully selected DNA markers, knowledge about the genetic predictability of skin colour is limited. Here, we investigate the skin colour predictive value of 77 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 37 genetic loci previously associated with human pigmentation using 2025 individuals from 31 global populations. We identified a minimal set of 36 highly informative skin colour predictive SNPs and developed a statistical prediction model capable of skin colour prediction on a global scale. Average cross-validated prediction accuracies expressed as area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) ± standard deviation were 0.97 ± 0.02 for Light, 0.83 ± 0.11 for Dark, and 0.96 ± 0.03 for Dark-Black. When using a 5-category, this resulted in 0.74 ± 0.05 for Very Pale, 0.72 ± 0.03 for Pale, 0.73 ± 0.03 for Intermediate, 0.87±0.1 for Dark, and 0.97 ± 0.03 for Dark-Black. A comparative analysis in 194 independent samples from 17 populations demonstrated that our model outperformed a previously proposed 10-SNP-classifier approach with AUCs rising from 0.79 to 0.82 for White, comparable at the intermediate level of 0.63 and 0.62, respectively, and a large increase from 0.64 to 0.92 for Black. Overall, this study demonstrates that the chosen DNA markers and prediction model, particularly the 5-category level; allow skin colour predictions within and between continental regions for the first time, which will serve as a valuable resource for future applications in forensic and anthropologic genetics.

Climate Prediction Center - The ENSO Cycle

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Home Site Map News Web resources and services. HOME > El Niño/La Niña > The ENSO Cycle ENSO Cycle Banner Climate for Weather and Climate Prediction Climate Prediction Center 5830 University Research Court College

Sentence-Level Attachment Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Albakour, M.-Dyaa; Kruschwitz, Udo; Lucas, Simon

Attachment prediction is the task of automatically identifying email messages that should contain an attachment. This can be useful to tackle the problem of sending out emails but forgetting to include the relevant attachment (something that happens all too often). A common Information Retrieval (IR) approach in analyzing documents such as emails is to treat the entire document as a bag of words. Here we propose a finer-grained analysis to address the problem. We aim at identifying individual sentences within an email that refer to an attachment. If we detect any such sentence, we predict that the email should have an attachment. Using part of the Enron corpus for evaluation we find that our finer-grained approach outperforms previously reported document-level attachment prediction in similar evaluation settings.

Essays on Earnings Predictability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bruun, Mark

This dissertation addresses the prediction of corporate earnings. The thesis aims to examine whether the degree of precision in earnings forecasts can be increased by basing them on historical financial ratios. Furthermore, the intent of the dissertation is to analyze whether accounting standards...... forecasts are not more accurate than the simpler forecasts based on a historical timeseries of earnings. Secondly, the dissertation shows how accounting standards affect analysts’ earnings predictions. Accounting conservatism contributes to a more volatile earnings process, which lowers the accuracy...... of analysts’ earnings forecasts. Furthermore, the dissertation shows how the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of information about corporate earnings depends on how well corporate earnings can be predicted. The dissertation indicates that the stock market’s reaction to the disclosure of earnings...

Inverse and Predictive Modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Syracuse, Ellen Marie [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-09-27

The LANL Seismo-Acoustic team has a strong capability in developing data-driven models that accurately predict a variety of observations. These models range from the simple – one-dimensional models that are constrained by a single dataset and can be used for quick and efficient predictions – to the complex – multidimensional models that are constrained by several types of data and result in more accurate predictions. Team members typically build models of geophysical characteristics of Earth and source distributions at scales of 1 to 1000s of km, the techniques used are applicable for other types of physical characteristics at an even greater range of scales. The following cases provide a snapshot of some of the modeling work done by the Seismo- Acoustic team at LANL.

Trust-based collective view prediction

CERN Document Server

Luo, Tiejian; Xu, Guandong; Zhou, Jia

2013-01-01

Collective view prediction is to judge the opinions of an active web user based on unknown elements by referring to the collective mind of the whole community. Content-based recommendation and collaborative filtering are two mainstream collective view prediction techniques. They generate predictions by analyzing the text features of the target object or the similarity of users' past behaviors. Still, these techniques are vulnerable to the artificially-injected noise data, because they are not able to judge the reliability and credibility of the information sources. Trust-based Collective View

Dividend Predictability Around the World

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Schrimpf, Andreas

The common perception in the literature, mainly based on U.S. data, is that current dividend yields are uninformative about future dividends. We show that this nding changes substantially when looking at a broad international panel of countries, as aggregate dividend growth rates are found...... that in countries where the quality of institutions is high, dividend predictability is weaker. These ndings indicate that the apparent lack of dividend predictability in the U.S. does not, in general, extend to other countries. Rather, dividend predictability is driven by cross-country dierences in rm...

Short-term wind power prediction

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Joensen, Alfred K.

2003-01-01

, and to implement these models and methods in an on-line software application. The economical value of having predictions available is also briefly considered. The summary report outlines the background and motivation for developing wind power prediction models. The meteorological theory which is relevant......The present thesis consists of 10 research papers published during the period 1997-2002 together with a summary report. The objective of the work described in the thesis is to develop models and methods for calculation of high accuracy predictions of wind power generated electricity...

Predictive ability of machine learning methods for massive crop yield prediction

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alberto Gonzalez-Sanchez

2014-04-01

Full Text Available An important issue for agricultural planning purposes is the accurate yield estimation for the numerous crops involved in the planning. Machine learning (ML is an essential approach for achieving practical and effective solutions for this problem. Many comparisons of ML methods for yield prediction have been made, seeking for the most accurate technique. Generally, the number of evaluated crops and techniques is too low and does not provide enough information for agricultural planning purposes. This paper compares the predictive accuracy of ML and linear regression techniques for crop yield prediction in ten crop datasets. Multiple linear regression, M5-Prime regression trees, perceptron multilayer neural networks, support vector regression and k-nearest neighbor methods were ranked. Four accuracy metrics were used to validate the models: the root mean square error (RMS, root relative square error (RRSE, normalized mean absolute error (MAE, and correlation factor (R. Real data of an irrigation zone of Mexico were used for building the models. Models were tested with samples of two consecutive years. The results show that M5-Prime and k-nearest neighbor techniques obtain the lowest average RMSE errors (5.14 and 4.91, the lowest RRSE errors (79.46% and 79.78%, the lowest average MAE errors (18.12% and 19.42%, and the highest average correlation factors (0.41 and 0.42. Since M5-Prime achieves the largest number of crop yield models with the lowest errors, it is a very suitable tool for massive crop yield prediction in agricultural planning.

Psoriasis prediction from genome-wide SNP profiles

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang Xiangzhong

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background With the availability of large-scale genome-wide association study (GWAS data, choosing an optimal set of SNPs for disease susceptibility prediction is a challenging task. This study aimed to use single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs to predict psoriasis from searching GWAS data. Methods Totally we had 2,798 samples and 451,724 SNPs. Process for searching a set of SNPs to predict susceptibility for psoriasis consisted of two steps. The first one was to search top 1,000 SNPs with high accuracy for prediction of psoriasis from GWAS dataset. The second one was to search for an optimal SNP subset for predicting psoriasis. The sequential information bottleneck (sIB method was compared with classical linear discriminant analysis(LDA for classification performance. Results The best test harmonic mean of sensitivity and specificity for predicting psoriasis by sIB was 0.674(95% CI: 0.650-0.698, while only 0.520(95% CI: 0.472-0.524 was reported for predicting disease by LDA. Our results indicate that the new classifier sIB performs better than LDA in the study. Conclusions The fact that a small set of SNPs can predict disease status with average accuracy of 68% makes it possible to use SNP data for psoriasis prediction.

Ensemble-based prediction of RNA secondary structures.

Science.gov (United States)

Aghaeepour, Nima; Hoos, Holger H

2013-04-24

Accurate structure prediction methods play an important role for the understanding of RNA function. Energy-based, pseudoknot-free secondary structure prediction is one of the most widely used and versatile approaches, and improved methods for this task have received much attention over the past five years. Despite the impressive progress that as been achieved in this area, existing evaluations of the prediction accuracy achieved by various algorithms do not provide a comprehensive, statistically sound assessment. Furthermore, while there is increasing evidence that no prediction algorithm consistently outperforms all others, no work has been done to exploit the complementary strengths of multiple approaches. In this work, we present two contributions to the area of RNA secondary structure prediction. Firstly, we use state-of-the-art, resampling-based statistical methods together with a previously published and increasingly widely used dataset of high-quality RNA structures to conduct a comprehensive evaluation of existing RNA secondary structure prediction procedures. The results from this evaluation clarify the performance relationship between ten well-known existing energy-based pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction methods and clearly demonstrate the progress that has been achieved in recent years. Secondly, we introduce AveRNA, a generic and powerful method for combining a set of existing secondary structure prediction procedures into an ensemble-based method that achieves significantly higher prediction accuracies than obtained from any of its component procedures. Our new, ensemble-based method, AveRNA, improves the state of the art for energy-based, pseudoknot-free RNA secondary structure prediction by exploiting the complementary strengths of multiple existing prediction procedures, as demonstrated using a state-of-the-art statistical resampling approach. In addition, AveRNA allows an intuitive and effective control of the trade-off between

For how long can we predict the weather? - Insights into atmospheric predictability from global convection-allowing simulations

Science.gov (United States)

Judt, Falko

2017-04-01

A tremendous increase in computing power has facilitated the advent of global convection-resolving numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Although this technological breakthrough allows for the seamless prediction of weather from local to global scales, the predictability of multiscale weather phenomena in these models is not very well known. To address this issue, we conducted a global high-resolution (4-km) predictability experiment using the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS), a state-of-the-art global NWP model developed at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The goals of this experiment are to investigate error growth from convective to planetary scales and to quantify the intrinsic, scale-dependent predictability limits of atmospheric motions. The globally uniform resolution of 4 km allows for the explicit treatment of organized deep moist convection, alleviating grave limitations of previous predictability studies that either used high-resolution limited-area models or global simulations with coarser grids and cumulus parameterization. Error growth is analyzed within the context of an "identical twin" experiment setup: the error is defined as the difference between a 20-day long "nature run" and a simulation that was perturbed with small-amplitude noise, but is otherwise identical. It is found that in convectively active regions, errors grow by several orders of magnitude within the first 24 h ("super-exponential growth"). The errors then spread to larger scales and begin a phase of exponential growth after 2-3 days when contaminating the baroclinic zones. After 16 days, the globally averaged error saturates—suggesting that the intrinsic limit of atmospheric predictability (in a general sense) is about two weeks, which is in line with earlier estimates. However, error growth rates differ between the tropics and mid-latitudes as well as between the troposphere and stratosphere, highlighting that atmospheric predictability is a complex

Does the sensorimotor system minimize prediction error or select the most likely prediction during object lifting?

Science.gov (United States)

McGregor, Heather R.; Pun, Henry C. H.; Buckingham, Gavin; Gribble, Paul L.

2016-01-01

The human sensorimotor system is routinely capable of making accurate predictions about an object's weight, which allows for energetically efficient lifts and prevents objects from being dropped. Often, however, poor predictions arise when the weight of an object can vary and sensory cues about object weight are sparse (e.g., picking up an opaque water bottle). The question arises, what strategies does the sensorimotor system use to make weight predictions when one is dealing with an object whose weight may vary? For example, does the sensorimotor system use a strategy that minimizes prediction error (minimal squared error) or one that selects the weight that is most likely to be correct (maximum a posteriori)? In this study we dissociated the predictions of these two strategies by having participants lift an object whose weight varied according to a skewed probability distribution. We found, using a small range of weight uncertainty, that four indexes of sensorimotor prediction (grip force rate, grip force, load force rate, and load force) were consistent with a feedforward strategy that minimizes the square of prediction errors. These findings match research in the visuomotor system, suggesting parallels in underlying processes. We interpret our findings within a Bayesian framework and discuss the potential benefits of using a minimal squared error strategy. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Using a novel experimental model of object lifting, we tested whether the sensorimotor system models the weight of objects by minimizing lifting errors or by selecting the statistically most likely weight. We found that the sensorimotor system minimizes the square of prediction errors for object lifting. This parallels the results of studies that investigated visually guided reaching, suggesting an overlap in the underlying mechanisms between tasks that involve different sensory systems. PMID:27760821

Predicting volume of distribution with decision tree-based regression methods using predicted tissue:plasma partition coefficients.

Science.gov (United States)

Freitas, Alex A; Limbu, Kriti; Ghafourian, Taravat

2015-01-01

Volume of distribution is an important pharmacokinetic property that indicates the extent of a drug's distribution in the body tissues. This paper addresses the problem of how to estimate the apparent volume of distribution at steady state (Vss) of chemical compounds in the human body using decision tree-based regression methods from the area of data mining (or machine learning). Hence, the pros and cons of several different types of decision tree-based regression methods have been discussed. The regression methods predict Vss using, as predictive features, both the compounds' molecular descriptors and the compounds' tissue:plasma partition coefficients (Kt:p) - often used in physiologically-based pharmacokinetics. Therefore, this work has assessed whether the data mining-based prediction of Vss can be made more accurate by using as input not only the compounds' molecular descriptors but also (a subset of) their predicted Kt:p values. Comparison of the models that used only molecular descriptors, in particular, the Bagging decision tree (mean fold error of 2.33), with those employing predicted Kt:p values in addition to the molecular descriptors, such as the Bagging decision tree using adipose Kt:p (mean fold error of 2.29), indicated that the use of predicted Kt:p values as descriptors may be beneficial for accurate prediction of Vss using decision trees if prior feature selection is applied. Decision tree based models presented in this work have an accuracy that is reasonable and similar to the accuracy of reported Vss inter-species extrapolations in the literature. The estimation of Vss for new compounds in drug discovery will benefit from methods that are able to integrate large and varied sources of data and flexible non-linear data mining methods such as decision trees, which can produce interpretable models. Graphical AbstractDecision trees for the prediction of tissue partition coefficient and volume of distribution of drugs.

The function and failure of sensory predictions.

Science.gov (United States)

Bansal, Sonia; Ford, Judith M; Spering, Miriam

2018-04-23

Humans and other primates are equipped with neural mechanisms that allow them to automatically make predictions about future events, facilitating processing of expected sensations and actions. Prediction-driven control and monitoring of perceptual and motor acts are vital to normal cognitive functioning. This review provides an overview of corollary discharge mechanisms involved in predictions across sensory modalities and discusses consequences of predictive coding for cognition and behavior. Converging evidence now links impairments in corollary discharge mechanisms to neuropsychiatric symptoms such as hallucinations and delusions. We review studies supporting a prediction-failure hypothesis of perceptual and cognitive disturbances. We also outline neural correlates underlying prediction function and failure, highlighting similarities across the visual, auditory, and somatosensory systems. In linking basic psychophysical and psychophysiological evidence of visual, auditory, and somatosensory prediction failures to neuropsychiatric symptoms, our review furthers our understanding of disease mechanisms. © 2018 New York Academy of Sciences.

Recent Advances in Predictive (Machine) Learning

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Friedman, J

2004-01-24

Prediction involves estimating the unknown value of an attribute of a system under study given the values of other measured attributes. In prediction (machine) learning the prediction rule is derived from data consisting of previously solved cases. Most methods for predictive learning were originated many years ago at the dawn of the computer age. Recently two new techniques have emerged that have revitalized the field. These are support vector machines and boosted decision trees. This paper provides an introduction to these two new methods tracing their respective ancestral roots to standard kernel methods and ordinary decision trees.

Tail Risk Premia and Return Predictability

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bollerslev, Tim; Todorov, Viktor; Xu, Lai

The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may be attribu......The variance risk premium, defined as the difference between actual and risk-neutralized expectations of the forward aggregate market variation, helps predict future market returns. Relying on new essentially model-free estimation procedure, we show that much of this predictability may......-varying economic uncertainty and changes in risk aversion, or market fears, respectively....

Final Technical Report: Increasing Prediction Accuracy.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

King, Bruce Hardison [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hansen, Clifford [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Stein, Joshua [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2015-12-01

PV performance models are used to quantify the value of PV plants in a given location. They combine the performance characteristics of the system, the measured or predicted irradiance and weather at a site, and the system configuration and design into a prediction of the amount of energy that will be produced by a PV system. These predictions must be as accurate as possible in order for finance charges to be minimized. Higher accuracy equals lower project risk. The Increasing Prediction Accuracy project at Sandia focuses on quantifying and reducing uncertainties in PV system performance models.

Suppression of progranulin expression inhibits bladder cancer growth and sensitizes cancer cells to cisplatin

OpenAIRE

Buraschi, Simone; Xu, Shi-Qiong; Stefanello, Manuela; Moskalev, Igor; Morcavallo, Alaide; Genua, Marco; Tanimoto, Ryuta; Birbe, Ruth; Peiper, Stephen C.; Gomella, Leonard G.; Belfiore, Antonino; Black, Peter C.; Iozzo, Renato V.; Morrione, Andrea

2016-01-01

We have recently demonstrated a critical role for progranulin in bladder cancer. Progranulin contributes, as an autocrine growth factor, to the transformed phenotype by modulating Akt-and MAPK-driven motility, invasion and anchorage-independent growth. Progranulin also induces F-actin remodeling by interacting with the F-actin binding protein drebrin. In addition, progranulin is overexpressed in invasive bladder cancer compared to normal tissue controls, suggesting that progranulin might play...

IL1-and TGF beta-Nox4 signaling, oxidative stress and DNA damage response are shared features of replicative, oncogene-induced, and drug-induced paracrine 'Bystander senescence'

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hubáčková, Soňa; Krejčíková, Kateřina; Bartek, Jiří; Hodný, Zdeněk

2012-01-01

Roč. 4, č. 12 (2012), 932-951 ISSN 1945-4589 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA204/08/1418; GA ČR GAP301/10/1525 Institutional support: RVO:68378050 Keywords : senescence-associated secretome * DNA damage response * cytokines * JAK/STAT3 * TGF beta * NF kappa B * IL6 * IL beta * Nox4 * autocrine and paracrine signaling * tumor Subject RIV: EB - Genetics ; Molecular Biology Impact factor: 4.696, year: 2012

Development of Antidepressants as Novel Agents to Treat Small Cell Lung Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

2015-10-01

and induce cell death in SCLC cells, at least in part by disrupting autocrine survival signals involving neurotransmitters and their G protein-coupled...repositioning, which is the discovery of new indications for existing drugs that are outside their original indications, is an increasingly attractive mode of...therapeutic discovery . In addition to saving time and money, an advantageous aspect of drug repositioning is that existing drugs have already been

Insulin-like growth factor-1 is a negative modulator of glucagon secretion

OpenAIRE

Mancuso, Elettra; Mannino, Gaia C.; Fatta, Concetta Di; Fuoco, Anastasia; Spiga, Rosangela; Andreozzi, Francesco; Sesti, Giorgio

2017-01-01

Glucagon secretion involves a combination of paracrine, autocrine, hormonal, and autonomic neural mechanisms. Type 2 diabetes often presents impaired glucagon suppression by insulin and glucose. Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-1) has elevated homology with insulin, and regulates pancreatic ?-cells insulin secretion. Insulin and IGF-1 receptors share considerable structure homology and function. We hypothesized the existence of a mechanism linking the inhibition of ?-cells glucagon secretion...

Prediction Methods for Blood Glucose Concentration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

“Recent Results on Glucose–Insulin Predictions by Means of a State Observer for Time-Delay Systems” by Pasquale Palumbo et al. introduces a prediction model which in real time predicts the insulin concentration in blood which in turn is used in a control system. The method is tested in simulation...... EEG signals to predict upcoming hypoglycemic situations in real-time by employing artificial neural networks. The results of a 30-day long clinical study with the implanted device and the developed algorithm are presented. The chapter “Meta-Learning Based Blood Glucose Predictor for Diabetic......, but the insulin amount is chosen using factors that account for this expectation. The increasing availability of more accurate continuous blood glucose measurement (CGM) systems is attracting much interest to the possibilities of explicit prediction of future BG values. Against this background, in 2014 a two...

Novel Approach for the Recognition and Prediction of Multi-Function Radar Behaviours Based on Predictive State Representations.

Science.gov (United States)

Ou, Jian; Chen, Yongguang; Zhao, Feng; Liu, Jin; Xiao, Shunping

2017-03-19

The extensive applications of multi-function radars (MFRs) have presented a great challenge to the technologies of radar countermeasures (RCMs) and electronic intelligence (ELINT). The recently proposed cognitive electronic warfare (CEW) provides a good solution, whose crux is to perceive present and future MFR behaviours, including the operating modes, waveform parameters, scheduling schemes, etc. Due to the variety and complexity of MFR waveforms, the existing approaches have the drawbacks of inefficiency and weak practicability in prediction. A novel method for MFR behaviour recognition and prediction is proposed based on predictive state representation (PSR). With the proposed approach, operating modes of MFR are recognized by accumulating the predictive states, instead of using fixed transition probabilities that are unavailable in the battlefield. It helps to reduce the dependence of MFR on prior information. And MFR signals can be quickly predicted by iteratively using the predicted observation, avoiding the very large computation brought by the uncertainty of future observations. Simulations with a hypothetical MFR signal sequence in a typical scenario are presented, showing that the proposed methods perform well and efficiently, which attests to their validity.

Prediction during natural language comprehension

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Willems, R.M.; Frank, S.L.; Nijhof, A.D.; Hagoort, P.; Bosch, A.P.J. van den

2016-01-01

The notion of prediction is studied in cognitive neuroscience with increasing intensity. We investigated the neural basis of 2 distinct aspects of word prediction, derived from information theory, during story comprehension. We assessed the effect of entropy of next-word probability distributions as

Predictive Systems Toxicology

KAUST Repository

Kiani, Narsis A.; Shang, Ming-Mei; Zenil, Hector; Tegner, Jesper

2018-01-01

In this review we address to what extent computational techniques can augment our ability to predict toxicity. The first section provides a brief history of empirical observations on toxicity dating back to the dawn of Sumerian civilization. Interestingly, the concept of dose emerged very early on, leading up to the modern emphasis on kinetic properties, which in turn encodes the insight that toxicity is not solely a property of a compound but instead depends on the interaction with the host organism. The next logical step is the current conception of evaluating drugs from a personalized medicine point-of-view. We review recent work on integrating what could be referred to as classical pharmacokinetic analysis with emerging systems biology approaches incorporating multiple omics data. These systems approaches employ advanced statistical analytical data processing complemented with machine learning techniques and use both pharmacokinetic and omics data. We find that such integrated approaches not only provide improved predictions of toxicity but also enable mechanistic interpretations of the molecular mechanisms underpinning toxicity and drug resistance. We conclude the chapter by discussing some of the main challenges, such as how to balance the inherent tension between the predictive capacity of models, which in practice amounts to constraining the number of features in the models versus allowing for rich mechanistic interpretability, i.e. equipping models with numerous molecular features. This challenge also requires patient-specific predictions on toxicity, which in turn requires proper stratification of patients as regards how they respond, with or without adverse toxic effects. In summary, the transformation of the ancient concept of dose is currently successfully operationalized using rich integrative data encoded in patient-specific models.

Predictive Systems Toxicology

KAUST Repository

Kiani, Narsis A.

2018-01-15

In this review we address to what extent computational techniques can augment our ability to predict toxicity. The first section provides a brief history of empirical observations on toxicity dating back to the dawn of Sumerian civilization. Interestingly, the concept of dose emerged very early on, leading up to the modern emphasis on kinetic properties, which in turn encodes the insight that toxicity is not solely a property of a compound but instead depends on the interaction with the host organism. The next logical step is the current conception of evaluating drugs from a personalized medicine point-of-view. We review recent work on integrating what could be referred to as classical pharmacokinetic analysis with emerging systems biology approaches incorporating multiple omics data. These systems approaches employ advanced statistical analytical data processing complemented with machine learning techniques and use both pharmacokinetic and omics data. We find that such integrated approaches not only provide improved predictions of toxicity but also enable mechanistic interpretations of the molecular mechanisms underpinning toxicity and drug resistance. We conclude the chapter by discussing some of the main challenges, such as how to balance the inherent tension between the predictive capacity of models, which in practice amounts to constraining the number of features in the models versus allowing for rich mechanistic interpretability, i.e. equipping models with numerous molecular features. This challenge also requires patient-specific predictions on toxicity, which in turn requires proper stratification of patients as regards how they respond, with or without adverse toxic effects. In summary, the transformation of the ancient concept of dose is currently successfully operationalized using rich integrative data encoded in patient-specific models.

Trading network predicts stock price.

Science.gov (United States)

Sun, Xiao-Qian; Shen, Hua-Wei; Cheng, Xue-Qi

2014-01-16

Stock price prediction is an important and challenging problem for studying financial markets. Existing studies are mainly based on the time series of stock price or the operation performance of listed company. In this paper, we propose to predict stock price based on investors' trading behavior. For each stock, we characterize the daily trading relationship among its investors using a trading network. We then classify the nodes of trading network into three roles according to their connectivity pattern. Strong Granger causality is found between stock price and trading relationship indices, i.e., the fraction of trading relationship among nodes with different roles. We further predict stock price by incorporating these trading relationship indices into a neural network based on time series of stock price. Experimental results on 51 stocks in two Chinese Stock Exchanges demonstrate the accuracy of stock price prediction is significantly improved by the inclusion of trading relationship indices.

Prediction of beta-turns at over 80% accuracy based on an ensemble of predicted secondary structures and multiple alignments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kurgan Lukasz

2008-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background β-turn is a secondary protein structure type that plays significant role in protein folding, stability, and molecular recognition. To date, several methods for prediction of β-turns from protein sequences were developed, but they are characterized by relatively poor prediction quality. The novelty of the proposed sequence-based β-turn predictor stems from the usage of a window based information extracted from four predicted three-state secondary structures, which together with a selected set of position specific scoring matrix (PSSM values serve as an input to the support vector machine (SVM predictor. Results We show that (1 all four predicted secondary structures are useful; (2 the most useful information extracted from the predicted secondary structure includes the structure of the predicted residue, secondary structure content in a window around the predicted residue, and features that indicate whether the predicted residue is inside a secondary structure segment; (3 the PSSM values of Asn, Asp, Gly, Ile, Leu, Met, Pro, and Val were among the top ranked features, which corroborates with recent studies. The Asn, Asp, Gly, and Pro indicate potential β-turns, while the remaining four amino acids are useful to predict non-β-turns. Empirical evaluation using three nonredundant datasets shows favorable Qtotal, Qpredicted and MCC values when compared with over a dozen of modern competing methods. Our method is the first to break the 80% Qtotal barrier and achieves Qtotal = 80.9%, MCC = 0.47, and Qpredicted higher by over 6% when compared with the second best method. We use feature selection to reduce the dimensionality of the feature vector used as the input for the proposed prediction method. The applied feature set is smaller by 86, 62 and 37% when compared with the second and two third-best (with respect to MCC competing methods, respectively. Conclusion Experiments show that the proposed method constitutes an

NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

OpenAIRE

Jerzy Balicki; Piotr Dryja; Waldemar Korłub; Piotr Przybyłek; Maciej Tyszka; Marcin Zadroga; Marcin Zakidalski

2016-01-01

Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

NEURAL METHODS FOR THE FINANCIAL PREDICTION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jerzy Balicki

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Artificial neural networks can be used to predict share investment on the stock market, assess the reliability of credit client or predicting banking crises. Moreover, this paper discusses the principles of cooperation neural network algorithms with evolutionary method, and support vector machines. In addition, a reference is made to other methods of artificial intelligence, which are used in finance prediction.

Predictive genomics: A cancer hallmark network framework for predicting tumor clinical phenotypes using genome sequencing data

OpenAIRE

Wang, Edwin; Zaman, Naif; Mcgee, Shauna; Milanese, Jean-Sébastien; Masoudi-Nejad, Ali; O'Connor, Maureen

2014-01-01

We discuss a cancer hallmark network framework for modelling genome-sequencing data to predict cancer clonal evolution and associated clinical phenotypes. Strategies of using this framework in conjunction with genome sequencing data in an attempt to predict personalized drug targets, drug resistance, and metastasis for a cancer patient, as well as cancer risks for a healthy individual are discussed. Accurate prediction of cancer clonal evolution and clinical phenotypes will have substantial i...

Comparison of predictive performance of data mining algorithms in predicting body weight in Mengali rams of Pakistan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Senol Celik

Full Text Available ABSTRACT The present study aimed at comparing predictive performance of some data mining algorithms (CART, CHAID, Exhaustive CHAID, MARS, MLP, and RBF in biometrical data of Mengali rams. To compare the predictive capability of the algorithms, the biometrical data regarding body (body length, withers height, and heart girth and testicular (testicular length, scrotal length, and scrotal circumference measurements of Mengali rams in predicting live body weight were evaluated by most goodness of fit criteria. In addition, age was considered as a continuous independent variable. In this context, MARS data mining algorithm was used for the first time to predict body weight in two forms, without (MARS_1 and with interaction (MARS_2 terms. The superiority order in the predictive accuracy of the algorithms was found as CART > CHAID ≈ Exhaustive CHAID > MARS_2 > MARS_1 > RBF > MLP. Moreover, all tested algorithms provided a strong predictive accuracy for estimating body weight. However, MARS is the only algorithm that generated a prediction equation for body weight. Therefore, it is hoped that the available results might present a valuable contribution in terms of predicting body weight and describing the relationship between the body weight and body and testicular measurements in revealing breed standards and the conservation of indigenous gene sources for Mengali sheep breeding. Therefore, it will be possible to perform more profitable and productive sheep production. Use of data mining algorithms is useful for revealing the relationship between body weight and testicular traits in describing breed standards of Mengali sheep.

Gate valve performance prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Harrison, D.H.; Damerell, P.S.; Wang, J.K.; Kalsi, M.S.; Wolfe, K.J.

1994-01-01

The Electric Power Research Institute is carrying out a program to improve the performance prediction methods for motor-operated valves. As part of this program, an analytical method to predict the stem thrust required to stroke a gate valve has been developed and has been assessed against data from gate valve tests. The method accounts for the loads applied to the disc by fluid flow and for the detailed mechanical interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seats. To support development of the method, two separate-effects test programs were carried out. One test program determined friction coefficients for contacts between gate valve parts by using material specimens in controlled environments. The other test program investigated the interaction of the stem, disc, guides, and seat using a special fixture with full-sized gate valve parts. The method has been assessed against flow-loop and in-plant test data. These tests include valve sizes from 3 to 18 in. and cover a considerable range of flow, temperature, and differential pressure. Stem thrust predictions for the method bound measured results. In some cases, the bounding predictions are substantially higher than the stem loads required for valve operation, as a result of the bounding nature of the friction coefficients in the method

The prediction of surface temperature in the new seasonal prediction system based on the MPI-ESM coupled climate model

Science.gov (United States)

Baehr, J.; Fröhlich, K.; Botzet, M.; Domeisen, D. I. V.; Kornblueh, L.; Notz, D.; Piontek, R.; Pohlmann, H.; Tietsche, S.; Müller, W. A.

2015-05-01

A seasonal forecast system is presented, based on the global coupled climate model MPI-ESM as used for CMIP5 simulations. We describe the initialisation of the system and analyse its predictive skill for surface temperature. The presented system is initialised in the atmospheric, oceanic, and sea ice component of the model from reanalysis/observations with full field nudging in all three components. For the initialisation of the ensemble, bred vectors with a vertically varying norm are implemented in the ocean component to generate initial perturbations. In a set of ensemble hindcast simulations, starting each May and November between 1982 and 2010, we analyse the predictive skill. Bias-corrected ensemble forecasts for each start date reproduce the observed surface temperature anomalies at 2-4 months lead time, particularly in the tropics. Niño3.4 sea surface temperature anomalies show a small root-mean-square error and predictive skill up to 6 months. Away from the tropics, predictive skill is mostly limited to the ocean, and to regions which are strongly influenced by ENSO teleconnections. In summary, the presented seasonal prediction system based on a coupled climate model shows predictive skill for surface temperature at seasonal time scales comparable to other seasonal prediction systems using different underlying models and initialisation strategies. As the same model underlying our seasonal prediction system—with a different initialisation—is presently also used for decadal predictions, this is an important step towards seamless seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions.

Pulverized coal devolatilization prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rojas, Andres F; Barraza, Juan M

2008-01-01

The aim of this study was to predict the two bituminous coals devolatilization at low rate of heating (50 Celsius degrade/min), with program FG-DVC (functional group Depolymerization. Vaporization and crosslinking), and to compare the devolatilization profiles predicted by program FG-DVC, which are obtained in the thermogravimetric analyzer. It was also study the volatile liberation at (10 4 k/s) in a drop-tube furnace. The tar, methane, carbon monoxide, and carbon dioxide, formation rate profiles, and the hydrogen, oxygen, nitrogen and sulphur, elemental distribution in the devolatilization products by FG-DVC program at low rate of heating was obtained; and the liberation volatile and R factor at high rate of heating was calculated. it was found that the program predicts the bituminous coals devolatilization at low rate heating, at high rate heating, a volatile liberation around 30% was obtained

Fixed recurrence and slip models better predict earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models 1: repeating earthquakes

Science.gov (United States)

Rubinstein, Justin L.; Ellsworth, William L.; Chen, Kate Huihsuan; Uchida, Naoki

2012-01-01

The behavior of individual events in repeating earthquake sequences in California, Taiwan and Japan is better predicted by a model with fixed inter-event time or fixed slip than it is by the time- and slip-predictable models for earthquake occurrence. Given that repeating earthquakes are highly regular in both inter-event time and seismic moment, the time- and slip-predictable models seem ideally suited to explain their behavior. Taken together with evidence from the companion manuscript that shows similar results for laboratory experiments we conclude that the short-term predictions of the time- and slip-predictable models should be rejected in favor of earthquake models that assume either fixed slip or fixed recurrence interval. This implies that the elastic rebound model underlying the time- and slip-predictable models offers no additional value in describing earthquake behavior in an event-to-event sense, but its value in a long-term sense cannot be determined. These models likely fail because they rely on assumptions that oversimplify the earthquake cycle. We note that the time and slip of these events is predicted quite well by fixed slip and fixed recurrence models, so in some sense they are time- and slip-predictable. While fixed recurrence and slip models better predict repeating earthquake behavior than the time- and slip-predictable models, we observe a correlation between slip and the preceding recurrence time for many repeating earthquake sequences in Parkfield, California. This correlation is not found in other regions, and the sequences with the correlative slip-predictable behavior are not distinguishable from nearby earthquake sequences that do not exhibit this behavior.

The Theory of Linear Prediction

CERN Document Server

Vaidyanathan, PP

2007-01-01

Linear prediction theory has had a profound impact in the field of digital signal processing. Although the theory dates back to the early 1940s, its influence can still be seen in applications today. The theory is based on very elegant mathematics and leads to many beautiful insights into statistical signal processing. Although prediction is only a part of the more general topics of linear estimation, filtering, and smoothing, this book focuses on linear prediction. This has enabled detailed discussion of a number of issues that are normally not found in texts. For example, the theory of vecto

Predicting emergency diesel starting performance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeBey, T.M.

1989-01-01

The US Department of Energy effort to extend the operational lives of commercial nuclear power plants has examined methods for predicting the performance of specific equipment. This effort focuses on performance prediction as a means for reducing equipment surveillance, maintenance, and outages. Realizing these goals will result in nuclear plants that are more reliable, have lower maintenance costs, and have longer lives. This paper describes a monitoring system that has been developed to predict starting performance in emergency diesels. A prototype system has been built and tested on an engine at Sandia National Laboratories. 2 refs

Multi-model analysis in hydrological prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Lanthier, M.; Arsenault, R.; Brissette, F.

2017-12-01

Hydrologic modelling, by nature, is a simplification of the real-world hydrologic system. Therefore ensemble hydrological predictions thus obtained do not present the full range of possible streamflow outcomes, thereby producing ensembles which demonstrate errors in variance such as under-dispersion. Past studies show that lumped models used in prediction mode can return satisfactory results, especially when there is not enough information available on the watershed to run a distributed model. But all lumped models greatly simplify the complex processes of the hydrologic cycle. To generate more spread in the hydrologic ensemble predictions, multi-model ensembles have been considered. In this study, the aim is to propose and analyse a method that gives an ensemble streamflow prediction that properly represents the forecast probabilities and reduced ensemble bias. To achieve this, three simple lumped models are used to generate an ensemble. These will also be combined using multi-model averaging techniques, which generally generate a more accurate hydrogram than the best of the individual models in simulation mode. This new predictive combined hydrogram is added to the ensemble, thus creating a large ensemble which may improve the variability while also improving the ensemble mean bias. The quality of the predictions is then assessed on different periods: 2 weeks, 1 month, 3 months and 6 months using a PIT Histogram of the percentiles of the real observation volumes with respect to the volumes of the ensemble members. Initially, the models were run using historical weather data to generate synthetic flows. This worked for individual models, but not for the multi-model and for the large ensemble. Consequently, by performing data assimilation at each prediction period and thus adjusting the initial states of the models, the PIT Histogram could be constructed using the observed flows while allowing the use of the multi-model predictions. The under-dispersion has been

Genomic prediction using subsampling

OpenAIRE

Xavier, Alencar; Xu, Shizhong; Muir, William; Rainey, Katy Martin

2017-01-01

Background Genome-wide assisted selection is a critical tool for the?genetic improvement of plants and animals. Whole-genome regression models in Bayesian framework represent the main family of prediction methods. Fitting such models with a large number of observations involves a prohibitive computational burden. We propose the use of subsampling bootstrap Markov chain in genomic prediction. Such method consists of fitting whole-genome regression models by subsampling observations in each rou...

Empirical Flutter Prediction Method.

Science.gov (United States)

1988-03-05

been used in this way to discover species or subspecies of animals, and to discover different types of voter or comsumer requiring different persuasions...respect to behavior or performance or response variables. Once this were done, corresponding clusters might be sought among descriptive or predictive or...jump in a response. The first sort of usage does not apply to the flutter prediction problem. Here the types of behavior are the different kinds of

Geophysical Anomalies and Earthquake Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson, D. D.

2008-12-01

Finding anomalies is easy. Predicting earthquakes convincingly from such anomalies is far from easy. Why? Why have so many beautiful geophysical abnormalities not led to successful prediction strategies? What is earthquake prediction? By my definition it is convincing information that an earthquake of specified size is temporarily much more likely than usual in a specific region for a specified time interval. We know a lot about normal earthquake behavior, including locations where earthquake rates are higher than elsewhere, with estimable rates and size distributions. We know that earthquakes have power law size distributions over large areas, that they cluster in time and space, and that aftershocks follow with power-law dependence on time. These relationships justify prudent protective measures and scientific investigation. Earthquake prediction would justify exceptional temporary measures well beyond those normal prudent actions. Convincing earthquake prediction would result from methods that have demonstrated many successes with few false alarms. Predicting earthquakes convincingly is difficult for several profound reasons. First, earthquakes start in tiny volumes at inaccessible depth. The power law size dependence means that tiny unobservable ones are frequent almost everywhere and occasionally grow to larger size. Thus prediction of important earthquakes is not about nucleation, but about identifying the conditions for growth. Second, earthquakes are complex. They derive their energy from stress, which is perniciously hard to estimate or model because it is nearly singular at the margins of cracks and faults. Physical properties vary from place to place, so the preparatory processes certainly vary as well. Thus establishing the needed track record for validation is very difficult, especially for large events with immense interval times in any one location. Third, the anomalies are generally complex as well. Electromagnetic anomalies in particular require

Applications of contact predictions to structural biology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Felix Simkovic

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Evolutionary pressure on residue interactions, intramolecular or intermolecular, that are important for protein structure or function can lead to covariance between the two positions. Recent methodological advances allow much more accurate contact predictions to be derived from this evolutionary covariance signal. The practical application of contact predictions has largely been confined to structural bioinformatics, yet, as this work seeks to demonstrate, the data can be of enormous value to the structural biologist working in X-ray crystallography, cryo-EM or NMR. Integrative structural bioinformatics packages such as Rosetta can already exploit contact predictions in a variety of ways. The contribution of contact predictions begins at construct design, where structural domains may need to be expressed separately and contact predictions can help to predict domain limits. Structure solution by molecular replacement (MR benefits from contact predictions in diverse ways: in difficult cases, more accurate search models can be constructed using ab initio modelling when predictions are available, while intermolecular contact predictions can allow the construction of larger, oligomeric search models. Furthermore, MR using supersecondary motifs or large-scale screens against the PDB can exploit information, such as the parallel or antiparallel nature of any β-strand pairing in the target, that can be inferred from contact predictions. Contact information will be particularly valuable in the determination of lower resolution structures by helping to assign sequence register. In large complexes, contact information may allow the identity of a protein responsible for a certain region of density to be determined and then assist in the orientation of an available model within that density. In NMR, predicted contacts can provide long-range information to extend the upper size limit of the technique in a manner analogous but complementary to experimental

In-Hospital Risk Prediction for Post-stroke Depression. Development and Validation of the Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thóra Hafsteinsdóttir; Roelof G.A. Ettema; Diederick Grobbee; Prof. Dr. Marieke J. Schuurmans; Janneke van Man-van Ginkel; Eline Lindeman

2013-01-01

Background and Purpose—The timely detection of post-stroke depression is complicated by a decreasing length of hospital stay. Therefore, the Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale was developed and validated. The Post-stroke Depression Prediction Scale is a clinical prediction model for the early

Model Predictive Control for Smart Energy Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Halvgaard, Rasmus

pumps, heat tanks, electrical vehicle battery charging/discharging, wind farms, power plants). 2.Embed forecasting methodologies for the weather (e.g. temperature, solar radiation), the electricity consumption, and the electricity price in a predictive control system. 3.Develop optimization algorithms....... Chapter 3 introduces Model Predictive Control (MPC) including state estimation, filtering and prediction for linear models. Chapter 4 simulates the models from Chapter 2 with the certainty equivalent MPC from Chapter 3. An economic MPC minimizes the costs of consumption based on real electricity prices...... that determined the flexibility of the units. A predictive control system easily handles constraints, e.g. limitations in power consumption, and predicts the future behavior of a unit by integrating predictions of electricity prices, consumption, and weather variables. The simulations demonstrate the expected...

Prediction of Commuter’s Daily Time Allocation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fang Zong

2013-10-01

Full Text Available This paper presents a model system to predict the time allocation in commuters’ daily activity-travel pattern. The departure time and the arrival time are estimated with Ordered Probit model and Support Vector Regression is introduced for travel time and activity duration prediction. Applied in a real-world time allocation prediction experiment, the model system shows a satisfactory level of prediction accuracy. This study provides useful insights into commuters’ activity-travel time allocation decision by identifying the important influences, and the results are readily applied to a wide range of transportation practice, such as travel information system, by providing reliable forecast for variations in travel demand over time. By introducing the Support Vector Regression, it also makes a methodological contribution in enhancing prediction accuracy of travel time and activity duration prediction.

EFFICIENT PREDICTIVE MODELLING FOR ARCHAEOLOGICAL RESEARCH

OpenAIRE

Balla, A.; Pavlogeorgatos, G.; Tsiafakis, D.; Pavlidis, G.

2014-01-01

The study presents a general methodology for designing, developing and implementing predictive modelling for identifying areas of archaeological interest. The methodology is based on documented archaeological data and geographical factors, geospatial analysis and predictive modelling, and has been applied to the identification of possible Macedonian tombs’ locations in Northern Greece. The model was tested extensively and the results were validated using a commonly used predictive gain, which...

Dividend Predictability Around the World

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

2014-01-01

We show that dividend-growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our f...

Dividend Predictability Around the World

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rangvid, Jesper; Schmeling, Maik; Schrimpf, Andreas

We show that dividend growth predictability by the dividend yield is the rule rather than the exception in global equity markets. Dividend predictability is weaker, however, in large and developed markets where dividends are smoothed more, the typical firm is large, and volatility is lower. Our f...

Using Predictability for Lexical Segmentation.

Science.gov (United States)

Çöltekin, Çağrı

2017-09-01

This study investigates a strategy based on predictability of consecutive sub-lexical units in learning to segment a continuous speech stream into lexical units using computational modeling and simulations. Lexical segmentation is one of the early challenges during language acquisition, and it has been studied extensively through psycholinguistic experiments as well as computational methods. However, despite strong empirical evidence, the explicit use of predictability of basic sub-lexical units in models of segmentation is underexplored. This paper presents an incremental computational model of lexical segmentation for exploring the usefulness of predictability for lexical segmentation. We show that the predictability cue is a strong cue for segmentation. Contrary to earlier reports in the literature, the strategy yields state-of-the-art segmentation performance with an incremental computational model that uses only this particular cue in a cognitively plausible setting. The paper also reports an in-depth analysis of the model, investigating the conditions affecting the usefulness of the strategy. Copyright © 2016 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

EPRI MOV performance prediction program

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hosler, J.F.; Damerell, P.S.; Eidson, M.G.; Estep, N.E.

1994-01-01

An overview of the EPRI Motor-Operated Valve (MOV) Performance Prediction Program is presented. The objectives of this Program are to better understand the factors affecting the performance of MOVs and to develop and validate methodologies to predict MOV performance. The Program involves valve analytical modeling, separate-effects testing to refine the models, and flow-loop and in-plant MOV testing to provide a basis for model validation. The ultimate product of the Program is an MOV Performance Prediction Methodology applicable to common gate, globe, and butterfly valves. The methodology predicts thrust and torque requirements at design-basis flow and differential pressure conditions, assesses the potential for gate valve internal damage, and provides test methods to quantify potential for gate valve internal damage, and provides test methods to quantify potential variations in actuator output thrust with loading condition. Key findings and their potential impact on MOV design and engineering application are summarized

Predictability of Mobile Phone Associations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Bjørn Sand; Larsen, Jan; Hansen, Lars Kai

2010-01-01

Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how the predi...... representation, and general behavior. This is of vital interest in the development of context-aware services which rely on forecasting based on mobile phone sensors.......Prediction and understanding of human behavior is of high importance in many modern applications and research areas ranging from context-aware services, wireless resource allocation to social sciences. In this study we collect a novel dataset using standard mobile phones and analyze how...... the predictability of mobile sensors, acting as proxies for humans, change with time scale and sensor type such as GSM and WLAN. Applying recent information theoretic methods, it is demonstrated that an upper bound on predictability is relatively high for all sensors given the complete history (typically above 90...

Predictable and Predictive Emotions:Explaining Cheap Signals and Trust Re-Extension

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric eSchniter

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and emotion surveys to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to message, apologize, re-extend trust, and demonstrate trustworthiness. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors, remedial strategies used by promise-breakers, their effects on behavior, and subsequent outcomes. We found that emotions triggered by interaction outcomes are predictable and also predict subsequent apology and trust re-extension. The role of emotions in behavioral regulation helps explain why messages are produced, when they can be trusted, and when trust will be re-extended.

Predictable and predictive emotions: explaining cheap signals and trust re-extension.

Science.gov (United States)

Schniter, Eric; Sheremeta, Roman M

2014-01-01

Despite normative predictions from economics and biology, unrelated strangers will often develop the trust necessary to reap gains from one-shot economic exchange opportunities. This appears to be especially true when declared intentions and emotions can be cheaply communicated. Perhaps even more puzzling to economists and biologists is the observation that anonymous and unrelated individuals, known to have breached trust, often make effective use of cheap signals, such as promises and apologies, to encourage trust re-extension. We used a pair of trust games with one-way communication and an emotion survey to investigate the role of emotions in regulating the propensity to message, apologize, re-extend trust, and demonstrate trustworthiness. This design allowed us to observe the endogenous emergence and natural distribution of trust-relevant behaviors, remedial strategies used by promise-breakers, their effects on behavior, and subsequent outcomes. We found that emotions triggered by interaction outcomes are predictable and also predict subsequent apology and trust re-extension. The role of emotions in behavioral regulation helps explain why messages are produced, when they can be trusted, and when trust will be re-extended.

Prediction Model for Predicting Powdery Mildew using ANN for Medicinal Plant— Picrorhiza kurrooa

Science.gov (United States)

Shivling, V. D.; Ghanshyam, C.; Kumar, Rakesh; Kumar, Sanjay; Sharma, Radhika; Kumar, Dinesh; Sharma, Atul; Sharma, Sudhir Kumar

2017-02-01

Plant disease fore casting system is an important system as it can be used for prediction of disease, further it can be used as an alert system to warn the farmers in advance so as to protect their crop from being getting infected. Fore casting system will predict the risk of infection for crop by using the environmental factors that favor in germination of disease. In this study an artificial neural network based system for predicting the risk of powdery mildew in Picrorhiza kurrooa was developed. For development, Levenberg-Marquardt backpropagation algorithm was used having a single hidden layer of ten nodes. Temperature and duration of wetness are the major environmental factors that favor infection. Experimental data was used as a training set and some percentage of data was used for testing and validation. The performance of the system was measured in the form of the coefficient of correlation (R), coefficient of determination (R2), mean square error and root mean square error. For simulating the network an inter face was developed. Using this interface the network was simulated by putting temperature and wetness duration so as to predict the level of risk at that particular value of the input data.

Does the Risk Assessment and Prediction Tool Predict Discharge Disposition After Joint Replacement?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Viktor J.; Gromov, Kirill; Lebrun, Lauren M

2015-01-01

BACKGROUND: Payers of health services and policymakers place a major focus on cost containment in health care. Studies have shown that early planning of discharge is essential in reducing length of stay and achieving financial benefit; tools that can help predict discharge disposition would...... populations is unknown. A low RAPT score is reported to indicate a high risk of needing any form of inpatient rehabilitation after TJA, including short-term nursing facilities. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES: This study attempts (1) to assess predictive accuracy of the RAPT on US patients undergoing total hip and knee....... Based on our findings, the risk categories in our populations should be high risk intermediate risk 7 to 10, and low risk > 10. CONCLUSIONS: The RAPT accurately predicted discharge disposition for high- and low-risk patients in our cohort. Based on our data, intermediate-risk patients should...

Development of a Climate Prediction Market

Science.gov (United States)

Roulston, M. S.

2017-12-01

Winton, a global investment firm, is planning to establish a prediction market for climate. This prediction market will allow participants to place bets on global climate up to several decades in the future. Winton is pursuing this endeavour as part of its philanthropy that funds scientific research and the communication of scientific ideas. The Winton Climate Prediction Market will be based in the U.K. It will be structured as an online gambling site subject to the regulation of the Gambling Commission. Unlike existing betting sites, the Climate Prediction Market will be subsidized: a central market maker will inject money into the market. This is in contrast to traditional bookmakers or betting exchanges who set odds in their favour or charge commissions to make a profit. The philosophy of a subsidized prediction market is that the party seeking information should fund the market, rather than the participants who provide the information. The initial market will allow bets to be placed on the atmospheric concentration of carbon dioxide and the global mean temperature anomaly. It will thus produce implied forecasts of carbon dioxide concentration as well as global temperatures. If the initial market is successful, additional markets could be added which target other climate variables, such as regional temperatures or sea-level rise. These markets could be sponsored by organizations that are interested in predictions of the specific climate variables. An online platform for the Climate Prediction Market has been developed and has been tested internally at Winton.

Profit Driven Decision Trees for Churn Prediction

OpenAIRE

Höppner, Sebastiaan; Stripling, Eugen; Baesens, Bart; Broucke, Seppe vanden; Verdonck, Tim

2017-01-01

Customer retention campaigns increasingly rely on predictive models to detect potential churners in a vast customer base. From the perspective of machine learning, the task of predicting customer churn can be presented as a binary classification problem. Using data on historic behavior, classification algorithms are built with the purpose of accurately predicting the probability of a customer defecting. The predictive churn models are then commonly selected based on accuracy related performan...

Seasonal Drought Prediction: Advances, Challenges, and Future Prospects

Science.gov (United States)

Hao, Zengchao; Singh, Vijay P.; Xia, Youlong

2018-03-01

Drought prediction is of critical importance to early warning for drought managements. This review provides a synthesis of drought prediction based on statistical, dynamical, and hybrid methods. Statistical drought prediction is achieved by modeling the relationship between drought indices of interest and a suite of potential predictors, including large-scale climate indices, local climate variables, and land initial conditions. Dynamical meteorological drought prediction relies on seasonal climate forecast from general circulation models (GCMs), which can be employed to drive hydrological models for agricultural and hydrological drought prediction with the predictability determined by both climate forcings and initial conditions. Challenges still exist in drought prediction at long lead time and under a changing environment resulting from natural and anthropogenic factors. Future research prospects to improve drought prediction include, but are not limited to, high-quality data assimilation, improved model development with key processes related to drought occurrence, optimal ensemble forecast to select or weight ensembles, and hybrid drought prediction to merge statistical and dynamical forecasts.

Predicting unpredictability

Science.gov (United States)

Davis, Steven J.

2018-04-01

Analysts and markets have struggled to predict a number of phenomena, such as the rise of natural gas, in US energy markets over the past decade or so. Research shows the challenge may grow because the industry — and consequently the market — is becoming increasingly volatile.

EMD-Based Predictive Deep Belief Network for Time Series Prediction: An Application to Drought Forecasting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Norbert A. Agana

2018-02-01

Full Text Available Drought is a stochastic natural feature that arises due to intense and persistent shortage of precipitation. Its impact is mostly manifested as agricultural and hydrological droughts following an initial meteorological phenomenon. Drought prediction is essential because it can aid in the preparedness and impact-related management of its effects. This study considers the drought forecasting problem by developing a hybrid predictive model using a denoised empirical mode decomposition (EMD and a deep belief network (DBN. The proposed method first decomposes the data into several intrinsic mode functions (IMFs using EMD, and a reconstruction of the original data is obtained by considering only relevant IMFs. Detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA was applied to each IMF to determine the threshold for robust denoising performance. Based on their scaling exponents, irrelevant intrinsic mode functions are identified and suppressed. The proposed method was applied to predict different time scale drought indices across the Colorado River basin using a standardized streamflow index (SSI as the drought index. The results obtained using the proposed method was compared with standard methods such as multilayer perceptron (MLP and support vector regression (SVR. The proposed hybrid model showed improvement in prediction accuracy, especially for multi-step ahead predictions.

Novel Approach for the Recognition and Prediction of Multi-Function Radar Behaviours Based on Predictive State Representations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jian Ou

2017-03-01

Full Text Available The extensive applications of multi-function radars (MFRs have presented a great challenge to the technologies of radar countermeasures (RCMs and electronic intelligence (ELINT. The recently proposed cognitive electronic warfare (CEW provides a good solution, whose crux is to perceive present and future MFR behaviours, including the operating modes, waveform parameters, scheduling schemes, etc. Due to the variety and complexity of MFR waveforms, the existing approaches have the drawbacks of inefficiency and weak practicability in prediction. A novel method for MFR behaviour recognition and prediction is proposed based on predictive state representation (PSR. With the proposed approach, operating modes of MFR are recognized by accumulating the predictive states, instead of using fixed transition probabilities that are unavailable in the battlefield. It helps to reduce the dependence of MFR on prior information. And MFR signals can be quickly predicted by iteratively using the predicted observation, avoiding the very large computation brought by the uncertainty of future observations. Simulations with a hypothetical MFR signal sequence in a typical scenario are presented, showing that the proposed methods perform well and efficiently, which attests to their validity.

Climate Prediction Center - Seasonal Outlook

Science.gov (United States)

Weather Service NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS home page Climate Prediction Center Site Map News Forecast Discussion PROGNOSTIC DISCUSSION FOR MONTHLY OUTLOOK NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD INFLUENCE ON THE MONTHLY-AVERAGED CLIMATE. OUR MID-MONTH ASSESSMENT OF LOW-FREQUENCY CLIMATE VARIABILITY IS

Quadratic prediction of factor scores

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wansbeek, T

1999-01-01

Factor scores are naturally predicted by means of their conditional expectation given the indicators y. Under normality this expectation is linear in y but in general it is an unknown function of y. II is discussed that under nonnormality factor scores can be more precisely predicted by a quadratic

Predicting Online Purchasing Behavior

OpenAIRE

W.R BUCKINX; D. VAN DEN POEL

2003-01-01

This empirical study investigates the contribution of different types of predictors to the purchasing behaviour at an online store. We use logit modelling to predict whether or not a purchase is made during the next visit to the website using both forward and backward variable-selection techniques, as well as Furnival and Wilson’s global score search algorithm to find the best subset of predictors. We contribute to the literature by using variables from four different categories in predicting...

NASA/MSFC prediction techniques

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, R.E.

1987-01-01

The NASA/MSFC method of forecasting is more formal than NOAA's. The data are smoothed by the Lagrangian method and linear regression prediction techniques are used. The solar activity period is fixed at 11 years--the mean period of all previous cycles. Interestingly, the present prediction for the time of the next solar minimum is February or March of 1987, which, within the uncertainties of two methods, can be taken to be the same as the NOAA result

Ensemble-based Regional Climate Prediction: Political Impacts

Science.gov (United States)

Miguel, E.; Dykema, J.; Satyanath, S.; Anderson, J. G.

2008-12-01

Accurate forecasts of regional climate, including temperature and precipitation, have significant implications for human activities, not just economically but socially. Sub Saharan Africa is a region that has displayed an exceptional propensity for devastating civil wars. Recent research in political economy has revealed a strong statistical relationship between year to year fluctuations in precipitation and civil conflict in this region in the 1980s and 1990s. To investigate how climate change may modify the regional risk of civil conflict in the future requires a probabilistic regional forecast that explicitly accounts for the community's uncertainty in the evolution of rainfall under anthropogenic forcing. We approach the regional climate prediction aspect of this question through the application of a recently demonstrated method called generalized scalar prediction (Leroy et al. 2009), which predicts arbitrary scalar quantities of the climate system. This prediction method can predict change in any variable or linear combination of variables of the climate system averaged over a wide range spatial scales, from regional to hemispheric to global. Generalized scalar prediction utilizes an ensemble of model predictions to represent the community's uncertainty range in climate modeling in combination with a timeseries of any type of observational data that exhibits sensitivity to the scalar of interest. It is not necessary to prioritize models in deriving with the final prediction. We present the results of the application of generalized scalar prediction for regional forecasts of temperature and precipitation and Sub Saharan Africa. We utilize the climate predictions along with the established statistical relationship between year-to-year rainfall variability in Sub Saharan Africa to investigate the potential impact of climate change on civil conflict within that region.

Deterministic prediction of surface wind speed variations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. V. Drisya

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Accurate prediction of wind speed is an important aspect of various tasks related to wind energy management such as wind turbine predictive control and wind power scheduling. The most typical characteristic of wind speed data is its persistent temporal variations. Most of the techniques reported in the literature for prediction of wind speed and power are based on statistical methods or probabilistic distribution of wind speed data. In this paper we demonstrate that deterministic forecasting methods can make accurate short-term predictions of wind speed using past data, at locations where the wind dynamics exhibit chaotic behaviour. The predictions are remarkably accurate up to 1 h with a normalised RMSE (root mean square error of less than 0.02 and reasonably accurate up to 3 h with an error of less than 0.06. Repeated application of these methods at 234 different geographical locations for predicting wind speeds at 30-day intervals for 3 years reveals that the accuracy of prediction is more or less the same across all locations and time periods. Comparison of the results with f-ARIMA model predictions shows that the deterministic models with suitable parameters are capable of returning improved prediction accuracy and capturing the dynamical variations of the actual time series more faithfully. These methods are simple and computationally efficient and require only records of past data for making short-term wind speed forecasts within practically tolerable margin of errors.

CONSTRUCTION COST PREDICTION USING NEURAL NETWORKS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Smita K Magdum

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Construction cost prediction is important for construction firms to compete and grow in the industry. Accurate construction cost prediction in the early stage of project is important for project feasibility studies and successful completion. There are many factors that affect the cost prediction. This paper presents construction cost prediction as multiple regression model with cost of six materials as independent variables. The objective of this paper is to develop neural networks and multilayer perceptron based model for construction cost prediction. Different models of NN and MLP are developed with varying hidden layer size and hidden nodes. Four artificial neural network models and twelve multilayer perceptron models are compared. MLP and NN give better results than statistical regression method. As compared to NN, MLP works better on training dataset but fails on testing dataset. Five activation functions are tested to identify suitable function for the problem. ‘elu' transfer function gives better results than other transfer function.

Physiognomy: Personality Traits Prediction by Learning

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Ting Zhang; Ri-Zhen Qin; Qiu-Lei Dong; Wei Gao; Hua-Rong Xu; Zhan-Yi Hu

2017-01-01

Evaluating individuals' personality traits and intelligence from their faces plays a crucial role in interpersonal relationship and important social events such as elections and court sentences.To assess the possible correlations between personality traits (also measured intelligence) and face images,we first construct a dataset consisting of face photographs,personality measurements,and intelligence measurements.Then,we build an end-to-end convolutional neural network for prediction of personality traits and intelligence to investigate whether self-reported personality traits and intelligence can be predicted reliably from a face image.To our knowledge,it is the first work where deep learning is applied to this problem.Experimental results show the following three points:1)"Rule-consciousness" and "Tension" can be reliably predicted from face images.2) It is difficult,if not impossible,to predict intelligence from face images,a finding in accord with previous studies.3) Convolutional neural network (CNN) features outperform traditional handcrafted features in predicting traits.

Compressor Part II: Volute Flow Predictions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Tai Lee

1999-01-01

Full Text Available A numerical method that solves the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations is used to study an inefficient component of a shipboard air-conditioning HCFC-124 compressor system. This high-loss component of the centrifugal compressor was identified as the volute through a series of measurements given in Part I of the paper. The predictions were made using three grid topologies. The first grid closes the connection between the cutwater and the discharge diffuser. The other two grids connect the cutwater area with the discharge diffuser. Experiments were performed to simulate both the cutwater conditions used in the predictions. Surface pressures along the outer wall and near the inlet of the volute were surveyed for comparisons with the predictions. Good agreements between the predicted results and the measurements validate the calculations. Total pressure distributions and flow stream traces from the prediction results support the loss distribution through the volute. A modified volute configuration is examined numerically for further loss comparison.

RNA-SSPT: RNA Secondary Structure Prediction Tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmad, Freed; Mahboob, Shahid; Gulzar, Tahsin; Din, Salah U; Hanif, Tanzeela; Ahmad, Hifza; Afzal, Muhammad

2013-01-01

The prediction of RNA structure is useful for understanding evolution for both in silico and in vitro studies. Physical methods like NMR studies to predict RNA secondary structure are expensive and difficult. Computational RNA secondary structure prediction is easier. Comparative sequence analysis provides the best solution. But secondary structure prediction of a single RNA sequence is challenging. RNA-SSPT is a tool that computationally predicts secondary structure of a single RNA sequence. Most of the RNA secondary structure prediction tools do not allow pseudoknots in the structure or are unable to locate them. Nussinov dynamic programming algorithm has been implemented in RNA-SSPT. The current studies shows only energetically most favorable secondary structure is required and the algorithm modification is also available that produces base pairs to lower the total free energy of the secondary structure. For visualization of RNA secondary structure, NAVIEW in C language is used and modified in C# for tool requirement. RNA-SSPT is built in C# using Dot Net 2.0 in Microsoft Visual Studio 2005 Professional edition. The accuracy of RNA-SSPT is tested in terms of Sensitivity and Positive Predicted Value. It is a tool which serves both secondary structure prediction and secondary structure visualization purposes.

Conditional prediction intervals of wind power generation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Kariniotakis, Georges

2010-01-01

A generic method for the providing of prediction intervals of wind power generation is described. Prediction intervals complement the more common wind power point forecasts, by giving a range of potential outcomes for a given probability, their so-called nominal coverage rate. Ideally they inform...... on the characteristics of prediction errors for providing conditional interval forecasts. By simultaneously generating prediction intervals with various nominal coverage rates, one obtains full predictive distributions of wind generation. Adapted resampling is applied here to the case of an onshore Danish wind farm...... to the case of a large number of wind farms in Europe and Australia among others is finally discussed....

The heart as an extravascular target of endothelin-1 in ...

Science.gov (United States)

Exposure to particulate matter air pollution has been causally linked to cardiovascular disease in humans. Several broad and overlapping hypotheses describing the biological mechanisms by which particulate matter exposure leads to cardiovascular disease and cardiac dysfunction have been explored, though linkage with specific factors or genes remains limited. Given evidence pointing to autocrine/paracrine signaling systems as modulators of cardiac dysfunction, the present review highlights the emerging role of endothelins as mediators of cardiac dysfunction following particulate matter exposure. Endothelin-1 is a small multifunctional protein expressed in the pulmonary and cardiovascular system, known for its ability to constrict blood vessels. Although endothelin-1 can also directly and indirectly (via secondary signaling events) modulate cardiac contractility, heart rate, and rhythm, research on the role of endothelins in the context of air pollution has tended to focus on the vascular effects. The plausibility of endothelin as a mechanism underlying particulate matter-induced cardiac dysfunction is further supported by the therapeutic utility of certain endothelin receptor antagonists. Extravascular effects of endothelin on the heart could better explain one mechanism by which particulate matter exposure may lead to cardiac dysfunction. We propose and support the novel hypothesis that autocrine/paracrine signaling systems, such as endothelins, mediate cardiac

Epigenetic control of the basal-like gene expression profile via Interleukin-6 in breast cancer cells

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mitrugno Valentina

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Basal-like carcinoma are aggressive breast cancers that frequently carry p53 inactivating mutations, lack estrogen receptor-α (ERα and express the cancer stem cell markers CD133 and CD44. These tumors also over-express Interleukin 6 (IL-6, a pro-inflammatory cytokine that stimulates the growth of breast cancer stem/progenitor cells. Results Here we show that p53 deficiency in breast cancer cells induces a loss of methylation at IL-6 proximal promoter region, which is maintained by an IL-6 autocrine loop. IL-6 also elicits the loss of methylation at the CD133 promoter region 1 and of CD44 proximal promoter, enhancing CD133 and CD44 gene transcription. In parallel, IL-6 induces the methylation of estrogen receptor (ERα promoter and the loss of ERα mRNA expression. Finally, IL-6 induces the methylation of IL-6 distal promoter and of CD133 promoter region 2, which harbour putative repressor regions. Conclusion We conclude that IL-6, whose methylation-dependent autocrine loop is triggered by the inactivation of p53, induces an epigenetic reprogramming that drives breast carcinoma cells towards a basal-like/stem cell-like gene expression profile.

The Characteristics of Astrocytomas and Oligodendrogliomas Are Caused by Two Distinct and Interchangeable Signaling Formats

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chengkai Dai

2005-04-01

Full Text Available Chronic platelet-derived growth factor (PDGF signaling in glial progenitors leads to the formation of oligodendrogliomas in mice, whereas chronic combined Ras and Akt signaling leads to astrocytomas. Different histologies of these tumors imply that the pathways activated by these two oncogenic stimulations are different, and that the apparent lineage of the tumor cells may result from specific signaling activity. Therefore, we have investigated the signaling effects of PDGF in culture and in gliomas in vivo. In culture, PDGF transiently activates ERK1/2 and Akt, and subsequently elevates p21 and PCNA expression similar to chronic PDGF autocrine signaling in cultured astrocytes and PDGF-induced oligodendrogliomas in vivo. Culture experiments show that autocrine PDGF stimulation, and combined active Ras and Akt generate signaling patterns that are in some ways mutually exclusive. Furthermore, forced Akt activity in the context of chronic PDGF stimulation results in cells with an astrocytic differentiation pattern both in culture and in vivo. These data imply that these two interconvertible signaling motifs are distinct in mice and lead to gliomas resembling the two major glioma histologies found in humans. The ability of signaling activity to convert tumor cells from one lineage to another presents a mechanism for the development of tumors apparently comprised of cells from multiple lineages.

A Glutamate Homeostat Controls the Presynaptic Inhibition of Neurotransmitter Release

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiling Li

2018-05-01

Full Text Available Summary: We have interrogated the synaptic dialog that enables the bi-directional, homeostatic control of presynaptic efficacy at the glutamatergic Drosophila neuromuscular junction (NMJ. We find that homeostatic depression and potentiation use disparate genetic, induction, and expression mechanisms. Specifically, homeostatic potentiation is achieved through reduced CaMKII activity postsynaptically and increased abundance of active zone material presynaptically at one of the two neuronal subtypes innervating the NMJ, while homeostatic depression occurs without alterations in CaMKII activity and is expressed at both neuronal subtypes. Furthermore, homeostatic depression is only induced through excess presynaptic glutamate release and operates with disregard to the postsynaptic response. We propose that two independent homeostats modulate presynaptic efficacy at the Drosophila NMJ: one is an intercellular signaling system that potentiates synaptic strength following diminished postsynaptic excitability, while the other adaptively modulates presynaptic glutamate release through an autocrine mechanism without feedback from the postsynaptic compartment. : Homeostatic mechanisms stabilize synaptic strength, but the signaling systems remain enigmatic. Li et al. suggest the existence of a homeostat operating at the Drosophila neuromuscular junction that responds to excess glutamate through an autocrine mechanism to adaptively inhibit presynaptic neurotransmitter release. This system parallels forms of plasticity at central synapses. Keywords: homeostatic synaptic plasticity, glutamate homeostasis, synaptic depression, Drosophila neuromuscular junction

Salinity and temperature variations reflecting on cellular PCNA, IGF-I and II expressions, body growth and muscle cellularity of a freshwater fish larvae.

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, Y S; Melo, R M C; Campos-Junior, P H A; Santos, J C E; Luz, R K; Rizzo, E; Bazzoli, N

2014-06-01

The present study assessed the influence of salinity and temperature on body growth and on muscle cellularity of Lophiosilurus alexaxdri vitelinic larvae. Slightly salted environments negatively influenced body growth of freshwater fish larvae and we observed that those conditions notably act as an environmental influencer on muscle growth and on local expression of hypertrophia and hypeplasia markers (IGFs and PCNA). Furthermore, we could see that salinity tolerance for NaCl 4gl(-)(1) diminishes with increasing temperature, evidenced by variation in body and muscle growth, and by irregular morphology of the lateral skeletal muscle of larvae. We saw that an increase of both PCNA and autocrine IGF-II are correlated to an increase in fibre numbers and fibre diameter as the temperature increases and salinity diminishes. On the other hand, autocrine IGF-I follows the opposite way to the other biological parameters assessed, increasing as salinity increases and temperature diminishes, showing that this protein did not participate in muscle cellularity, but participating in molecular/cellular repair. Therefore, slightly salted environments may provide adverse conditions that cause some obstacles to somatic growth of this species, suggesting some osmotic expenditure with a salinity increment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Differential endothelial transcriptomics identifies semaphorin 3G as a vascular class 3 semaphorin.

Science.gov (United States)

Kutschera, Simone; Weber, Holger; Weick, Anja; De Smet, Frederik; Genove, Guillem; Takemoto, Minoru; Prahst, Claudia; Riedel, Maria; Mikelis, Constantinos; Baulande, Sylvain; Champseix, Catherine; Kummerer, Petra; Conseiller, Emmanuel; Multon, Marie-Christine; Heroult, Melanie; Bicknell, Roy; Carmeliet, Peter; Betsholtz, Christer; Augustin, Hellmut G

2011-01-01

To characterize the role of a vascular-expressed class 3 semaphorin (semaphorin 3G [Sema3G]). Semaphorins have been identified as axon guidance molecules. Yet, they have more recently also been characterized as attractive and repulsive regulators of angiogenesis. Through a transcriptomic screen, we identified Sema3G as a molecule of angiogenic endothelial cells. Sema3G-deficient mice are viable and exhibit no overt vascular phenotype. Yet, LacZ expression in the Sema3G locus revealed intense arterial vascular staining in the angiogenic vasculature, starting at E9.5, which was detectable throughout adolescence and downregulated in adult vasculature. Sema3G is expressed as a full-length 100-kDa secreted molecule that is processed by furin proteases to yield 95- and a 65-kDa Sema domain-containing subunits. Full-length Sema3G binds to NP2, whereas processed Sema3G binds to NP1 and NP2. Expression profiling and cellular experiments identified autocrine effects of Sema3G on endothelial cells and paracrine effects on smooth muscle cells. Although the mouse knockout phenotype suggests compensatory mechanisms, the experiments identify Sema3G as a primarily endothelial cell-expressed class 3 semaphorin that controls endothelial and smooth muscle cell functions in autocrine and paracrine manners, respectively.

The corpus luteum of the dog: source and target of steroid hormones?

Science.gov (United States)

Papa, P C; Hoffmann, B

2011-08-01

Aim of this paper is to review our present understanding on the endocrine control of luteal function in the bitch and to add some new data generated in our laboratories in support of the hypothesis of a paracrine/autocrine role of corpus luteum (CL) derived steroid hormones. Luteal lifespan in non-pregnant dogs often exceeds that of pregnant dogs, where luteal regression terminates in a rapid luteolysis, immediately prior to parturition. In non-pregnant dogs, luteal regression occurs independently of a uterine luteolysin and in spite of increased gonadotropic support during the last third of dioestrus. The CL is the only source of progesterone (P(4)) maintaining pregnancy, and they have the capacity to synthesize oestrogens as substantiated by expression of the CYP19 (aromatase) gene observed in this study. Our data demonstrated that lutein and non-lutein cells of the canine CL express in a rather constant manner the progesterone receptor (PR) and the oestrogen receptor, classifying them as targets for an autocrine/paracrine activity of CL-derived steroids. Therefore, a functional role of P(4) within a positive loop feedback system, including StAR and 3β-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase, has been postulated. © 2011 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

Practical aspects of geological prediction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mallio, W.J.; Peck, J.H.

1981-01-01

Nuclear waste disposal requires that geology be a predictive science. The prediction of future events rests on (1) recognizing the periodicity of geologic events; (2) defining a critical dimension of effect, such as the area of a drainage basin, the length of a fault trace, etc; and (3) using our understanding of active processes the project the frequency and magnitude of future events in the light of geological principles. Of importance to nuclear waste disposal are longer term processes such as continental denudation and removal of materials by glacial erosion. Constant testing of projections will allow the practical limits of predicting geological events to be defined. 11 refs

Predictions for Excited Strange Baryons

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fernando, Ishara P.; Goity, Jose L. [Thomas Jefferson National Accelerator Facility (TJNAF), Newport News, VA (United States)

2016-04-01

An assessment is made of predictions for excited hyperon masses which follow from flavor symmetry and consistency with a 1/N c expansion of QCD. Such predictions are based on presently established baryonic resonances. Low lying hyperon resonances which do not seem to fit into the proposed scheme are discussed.

Model predictive control using fuzzy decision functions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kaymak, U.; Costa Sousa, da J.M.

2001-01-01

Fuzzy predictive control integrates conventional model predictive control with techniques from fuzzy multicriteria decision making, translating the goals and the constraints to predictive control in a transparent way. The information regarding the (fuzzy) goals and the (fuzzy) constraints of the

Extending Theory-Based Quantitative Predictions to New Health Behaviors.

Science.gov (United States)

Brick, Leslie Ann D; Velicer, Wayne F; Redding, Colleen A; Rossi, Joseph S; Prochaska, James O

2016-04-01

Traditional null hypothesis significance testing suffers many limitations and is poorly adapted to theory testing. A proposed alternative approach, called Testing Theory-based Quantitative Predictions, uses effect size estimates and confidence intervals to directly test predictions based on theory. This paper replicates findings from previous smoking studies and extends the approach to diet and sun protection behaviors using baseline data from a Transtheoretical Model behavioral intervention (N = 5407). Effect size predictions were developed using two methods: (1) applying refined effect size estimates from previous smoking research or (2) using predictions developed by an expert panel. Thirteen of 15 predictions were confirmed for smoking. For diet, 7 of 14 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 6 of 16 using expert panel predictions. For sun protection, 3 of 11 predictions were confirmed using smoking predictions and 5 of 19 using expert panel predictions. Expert panel predictions and smoking-based predictions poorly predicted effect sizes for diet and sun protection constructs. Future studies should aim to use previous empirical data to generate predictions whenever possible. The best results occur when there have been several iterations of predictions for a behavior, such as with smoking, demonstrating that expected values begin to converge on the population effect size. Overall, the study supports necessity in strengthening and revising theory with empirical data.

Can We Predict Patient Wait Time?

Science.gov (United States)

Pianykh, Oleg S; Rosenthal, Daniel I

2015-10-01

The importance of patient wait-time management and predictability can hardly be overestimated: For most hospitals, it is the patient queues that drive and define every bit of clinical workflow. The objective of this work was to study the predictability of patient wait time and identify its most influential predictors. To solve this problem, we developed a comprehensive list of 25 wait-related parameters, suggested in earlier work and observed in our own experiments. All parameters were chosen as derivable from a typical Hospital Information System dataset. The parameters were fed into several time-predicting models, and the best parameter subsets, discovered through exhaustive model search, were applied to a large sample of actual patient wait data. We were able to discover the most efficient wait-time prediction factors and models, such as the line-size models introduced in this work. Moreover, these models proved to be equally accurate and computationally efficient. Finally, the selected models were implemented in our patient waiting areas, displaying predicted wait times on the monitors located at the front desks. The limitations of these models are also discussed. Optimal regression models based on wait-line sizes can provide accurate and efficient predictions for patient wait time. Copyright © 2015 American College of Radiology. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

PREDICTING DEMAND FOR COTTON YARNS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SALAS-MOLINA Francisco

2017-05-01

Full Text Available Predicting demand for fashion products is crucial for textile manufacturers. In an attempt to both avoid out-of-stocks and minimize holding costs, different forecasting techniques are used by production managers. Both linear and non-linear time-series analysis techniques are suitable options for forecasting purposes. However, demand for fashion products presents a number of particular characteristics such as short life-cycles, short selling seasons, high impulse purchasing, high volatility, low predictability, tremendous product variety and a high number of stock-keeping-units. In this paper, we focus on predicting demand for cotton yarns using a non-linear forecasting technique that has been fruitfully used in many areas, namely, random forests. To this end, we first identify a number of explanatory variables to be used as a key input to forecasting using random forests. We consider explanatory variables usually labeled either as causal variables, when some correlation is expected between them and the forecasted variable, or as time-series features, when extracted from time-related attributes such as seasonality. Next, we evaluate the predictive power of each variable by means of out-of-sample accuracy measurement. We experiment on a real data set from a textile company in Spain. The numerical results show that simple time-series features present more predictive ability than other more sophisticated explanatory variables.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Kirtman, Ben P.; Min, Dughong; Infanti, Johnna M.; Kinter, James L., III; Paolino, Daniel A.; Zhang, Qin; vandenDool, Huug; Saha, Suranjana; Mendez, Malaquias Pena; Becker, Emily;

Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory

OpenAIRE

Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S.

2015-01-01

Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning...

Relationship between water temperature predictability and aquatic ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Macroinvertebrate taxonomic turnover across seasons was higher for sites having lower water temperature predictability values than for sites with higher predictability, while temporal partitioning was greater at sites with greater temperature variability. Macroinvertebrate taxa responded in a predictable manner to changes in ...

Genomic Prediction of Gene Bank Wheat Landraces

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Crossa

2016-07-01

Full Text Available This study examines genomic prediction within 8416 Mexican landrace accessions and 2403 Iranian landrace accessions stored in gene banks. The Mexican and Iranian collections were evaluated in separate field trials, including an optimum environment for several traits, and in two separate environments (drought, D and heat, H for the highly heritable traits, days to heading (DTH, and days to maturity (DTM. Analyses accounting and not accounting for population structure were performed. Genomic prediction models include genotype × environment interaction (G × E. Two alternative prediction strategies were studied: (1 random cross-validation of the data in 20% training (TRN and 80% testing (TST (TRN20-TST80 sets, and (2 two types of core sets, “diversity” and “prediction”, including 10% and 20%, respectively, of the total collections. Accounting for population structure decreased prediction accuracy by 15–20% as compared to prediction accuracy obtained when not accounting for population structure. Accounting for population structure gave prediction accuracies for traits evaluated in one environment for TRN20-TST80 that ranged from 0.407 to 0.677 for Mexican landraces, and from 0.166 to 0.662 for Iranian landraces. Prediction accuracy of the 20% diversity core set was similar to accuracies obtained for TRN20-TST80, ranging from 0.412 to 0.654 for Mexican landraces, and from 0.182 to 0.647 for Iranian landraces. The predictive core set gave similar prediction accuracy as the diversity core set for Mexican collections, but slightly lower for Iranian collections. Prediction accuracy when incorporating G × E for DTH and DTM for Mexican landraces for TRN20-TST80 was around 0.60, which is greater than without the G × E term. For Iranian landraces, accuracies were 0.55 for the G × E model with TRN20-TST80. Results show promising prediction accuracies for potential use in germplasm enhancement and rapid introgression of exotic germplasm

Influences of misprediction costs on solar flare prediction

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Xin; Wang, HuaNing; Dai, XingHua

2012-10-01

The mispredictive costs of flaring and non-flaring samples are different for different applications of solar flare prediction. Hence, solar flare prediction is considered a cost sensitive problem. A cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is built by modifying the basic decision tree algorithm. Inconsistency rate with the exhaustive search strategy is used to determine the optimal combination of magnetic field parameters in an active region. These selected parameters are applied as the inputs of the solar flare prediction model. The performance of the cost sensitive solar flare prediction model is evaluated for the different thresholds of solar flares. It is found that more flaring samples are correctly predicted and more non-flaring samples are wrongly predicted with the increase of the cost for wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples, and the larger cost of wrongly predicting flaring samples as non-flaring samples is required for the higher threshold of solar flares. This can be considered as the guide line for choosing proper cost to meet the requirements in different applications.

Machine learning methods for metabolic pathway prediction

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Karp Peter D

2010-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A key challenge in systems biology is the reconstruction of an organism's metabolic network from its genome sequence. One strategy for addressing this problem is to predict which metabolic pathways, from a reference database of known pathways, are present in the organism, based on the annotated genome of the organism. Results To quantitatively validate methods for pathway prediction, we developed a large "gold standard" dataset of 5,610 pathway instances known to be present or absent in curated metabolic pathway databases for six organisms. We defined a collection of 123 pathway features, whose information content we evaluated with respect to the gold standard. Feature data were used as input to an extensive collection of machine learning (ML methods, including naïve Bayes, decision trees, and logistic regression, together with feature selection and ensemble methods. We compared the ML methods to the previous PathoLogic algorithm for pathway prediction using the gold standard dataset. We found that ML-based prediction methods can match the performance of the PathoLogic algorithm. PathoLogic achieved an accuracy of 91% and an F-measure of 0.786. The ML-based prediction methods achieved accuracy as high as 91.2% and F-measure as high as 0.787. The ML-based methods output a probability for each predicted pathway, whereas PathoLogic does not, which provides more information to the user and facilitates filtering of predicted pathways. Conclusions ML methods for pathway prediction perform as well as existing methods, and have qualitative advantages in terms of extensibility, tunability, and explainability. More advanced prediction methods and/or more sophisticated input features may improve the performance of ML methods. However, pathway prediction performance appears to be limited largely by the ability to correctly match enzymes to the reactions they catalyze based on genome annotations.

Machine learning methods for metabolic pathway prediction

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

Background A key challenge in systems biology is the reconstruction of an organism's metabolic network from its genome sequence. One strategy for addressing this problem is to predict which metabolic pathways, from a reference database of known pathways, are present in the organism, based on the annotated genome of the organism. Results To quantitatively validate methods for pathway prediction, we developed a large "gold standard" dataset of 5,610 pathway instances known to be present or absent in curated metabolic pathway databases for six organisms. We defined a collection of 123 pathway features, whose information content we evaluated with respect to the gold standard. Feature data were used as input to an extensive collection of machine learning (ML) methods, including naïve Bayes, decision trees, and logistic regression, together with feature selection and ensemble methods. We compared the ML methods to the previous PathoLogic algorithm for pathway prediction using the gold standard dataset. We found that ML-based prediction methods can match the performance of the PathoLogic algorithm. PathoLogic achieved an accuracy of 91% and an F-measure of 0.786. The ML-based prediction methods achieved accuracy as high as 91.2% and F-measure as high as 0.787. The ML-based methods output a probability for each predicted pathway, whereas PathoLogic does not, which provides more information to the user and facilitates filtering of predicted pathways. Conclusions ML methods for pathway prediction perform as well as existing methods, and have qualitative advantages in terms of extensibility, tunability, and explainability. More advanced prediction methods and/or more sophisticated input features may improve the performance of ML methods. However, pathway prediction performance appears to be limited largely by the ability to correctly match enzymes to the reactions they catalyze based on genome annotations. PMID:20064214

Reduce manual curation by combining gene predictions from multiple annotation engines, a case study of start codon prediction.

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Thomas H A Ederveen

Full Text Available Nowadays, prokaryotic genomes are sequenced faster than the capacity to manually curate gene annotations. Automated genome annotation engines provide users a straight-forward and complete solution for predicting ORF coordinates and function. For many labs, the use of AGEs is therefore essential to decrease the time necessary for annotating a given prokaryotic genome. However, it is not uncommon for AGEs to provide different and sometimes conflicting predictions. Combining multiple AGEs might allow for more accurate predictions. Here we analyzed the ab initio open reading frame (ORF calling performance of different AGEs based on curated genome annotations of eight strains from different bacterial species with GC% ranging from 35-52%. We present a case study which demonstrates a novel way of comparative genome annotation, using combinations of AGEs in a pre-defined order (or path to predict ORF start codons. The order of AGE combinations is from high to low specificity, where the specificity is based on the eight genome annotations. For each AGE combination we are able to derive a so-called projected confidence value, which is the average specificity of ORF start codon prediction based on the eight genomes. The projected confidence enables estimating likeliness of a correct prediction for a particular ORF start codon by a particular AGE combination, pinpointing ORFs notoriously difficult to predict start codons. We correctly predict start codons for 90.5±4.8% of the genes in a genome (based on the eight genomes with an accuracy of 81.1±7.6%. Our consensus-path methodology allows a marked improvement over majority voting (9.7±4.4% and with an optimal path ORF start prediction sensitivity is gained while maintaining a high specificity.

Predicting birth weight with conditionally linear transformation models.

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Möst, Lisa; Schmid, Matthias; Faschingbauer, Florian; Hothorn, Torsten

2016-12-01

Low and high birth weight (BW) are important risk factors for neonatal morbidity and mortality. Gynecologists must therefore accurately predict BW before delivery. Most prediction formulas for BW are based on prenatal ultrasound measurements carried out within one week prior to birth. Although successfully used in clinical practice, these formulas focus on point predictions of BW but do not systematically quantify uncertainty of the predictions, i.e. they result in estimates of the conditional mean of BW but do not deliver prediction intervals. To overcome this problem, we introduce conditionally linear transformation models (CLTMs) to predict BW. Instead of focusing only on the conditional mean, CLTMs model the whole conditional distribution function of BW given prenatal ultrasound parameters. Consequently, the CLTM approach delivers both point predictions of BW and fetus-specific prediction intervals. Prediction intervals constitute an easy-to-interpret measure of prediction accuracy and allow identification of fetuses subject to high prediction uncertainty. Using a data set of 8712 deliveries at the Perinatal Centre at the University Clinic Erlangen (Germany), we analyzed variants of CLTMs and compared them to standard linear regression estimation techniques used in the past and to quantile regression approaches. The best-performing CLTM variant was competitive with quantile regression and linear regression approaches in terms of conditional coverage and average length of the prediction intervals. We propose that CLTMs be used because they are able to account for possible heteroscedasticity, kurtosis, and skewness of the distribution of BWs. © The Author(s) 2014.

Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

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M. Siek

2010-09-01

Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

Cast iron - a predictable material

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Jorg C. Sturm

2011-02-01

Full Text Available High strength compacted graphite iron (CGI or alloyed cast iron components are substituting previously used non-ferrous castings in automotive power train applications. The mechanical engineering industry has recognized the value in substituting forged or welded structures with stiff and light-weight cast iron castings. New products such as wind turbines have opened new markets for an entire suite of highly reliable ductile iron cast components. During the last 20 years, casting process simulation has developed from predicting hot spots and solidification to an integral assessment tool for foundries for the entire manufacturing route of castings. The support of the feeding related layout of the casting is still one of the most important duties for casting process simulation. Depending on the alloy poured, different feeding behaviors and self-feeding capabilities need to be considered to provide a defect free casting. Therefore, it is not enough to base the prediction of shrinkage defects solely on hot spots derived from temperature fields. To be able to quantitatively predict these defects, solidification simulation had to be combined with density and mass transport calculations, in order to evaluate the impact of the solidification morphology on the feeding behavior as well as to consider alloy dependent feeding ranges. For cast iron foundries, the use of casting process simulation has become an important instrument to predict the robustness and reliability of their processes, especially since the influence of alloying elements, melting practice and metallurgy need to be considered to quantify the special shrinkage and solidification behavior of cast iron. This allows the prediction of local structures, phases and ultimately the local mechanical properties of cast irons, to asses casting quality in the foundry but also to make use of this quantitative information during design of the casting. Casting quality issues related to thermally driven

Individualized prediction of perineural invasion in colorectal cancer: development and validation of a radiomics prediction model.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yanqi; He, Lan; Dong, Di; Yang, Caiyun; Liang, Cuishan; Chen, Xin; Ma, Zelan; Huang, Xiaomei; Yao, Su; Liang, Changhong; Tian, Jie; Liu, Zaiyi

2018-02-01

To develop and validate a radiomics prediction model for individualized prediction of perineural invasion (PNI) in colorectal cancer (CRC). After computed tomography (CT) radiomics features extraction, a radiomics signature was constructed in derivation cohort (346 CRC patients). A prediction model was developed to integrate the radiomics signature and clinical candidate predictors [age, sex, tumor location, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level]. Apparent prediction performance was assessed. After internal validation, independent temporal validation (separate from the cohort used to build the model) was then conducted in 217 CRC patients. The final model was converted to an easy-to-use nomogram. The developed radiomics nomogram that integrated the radiomics signature and CEA level showed good calibration and discrimination performance [Harrell's concordance index (c-index): 0.817; 95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.811-0.823]. Application of the nomogram in validation cohort gave a comparable calibration and discrimination (c-index: 0.803; 95% CI: 0.794-0.812). Integrating the radiomics signature and CEA level into a radiomics prediction model enables easy and effective risk assessment of PNI in CRC. This stratification of patients according to their PNI status may provide a basis for individualized auxiliary treatment.

Development of predictive weather scenarios for early prediction of rice yield in South Korea

Science.gov (United States)

Shin, Y.; Cho, J.; Jung, I.

2017-12-01

International grain prices are becoming unstable due to frequent occurrence of abnormal weather phenomena caused by climate change. Early prediction of grain yield using weather forecast data is important for stabilization of international grain prices. The APEC Climate Center (APCC) is providing seasonal forecast data based on monthly climate prediction models for global seasonal forecasting services. The 3-month and 6-month seasonal forecast data using the multi-model ensemble (MME) technique are provided in their own website, ADSS (APCC Data Service System, http://adss.apcc21.org/). The spatial resolution of seasonal forecast data for each individual model is 2.5°×2.5°(about 250km) and the time scale is created as monthly. In this study, we developed customized weather forecast scenarios that are combined seasonal forecast data and observational data apply to early rice yield prediction model. Statistical downscale method was applied to produce meteorological input data of crop model because field scale crop model (ORYZA2000) requires daily weather data. In order to determine whether the forecasting data is suitable for the crop model, we produced spatio-temporal downscaled weather scenarios and evaluated the predictability by comparison with observed weather data at 57 ASOS stations in South Korea. The customized weather forecast scenarios can be applied to various application fields not only early rice yield prediction. Acknowledgement This work was carried out with the support of "Cooperative Research Program for Agriculture Science and Technology Development (Project No: PJ012855022017)" Rural Development Administration, Republic of Korea.

Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

Science.gov (United States)

Buczak, Anna L; Baugher, Benjamin; Moniz, Linda J; Bagley, Thomas; Babin, Steven M; Guven, Erhan

2018-01-01

In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico) during four dengue seasons: 1) peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2) peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred); and 3) total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date. Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1) two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2) additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3) simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations. Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week. The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

Evoked emotions predict food choice.

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Dalenberg, Jelle R; Gutjar, Swetlana; Ter Horst, Gert J; de Graaf, Kees; Renken, Remco J; Jager, Gerry

2014-01-01

In the current study we show that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores significantly improve food choice prediction over merely liking scores. Previous research has shown that liking measures correlate with choice. However, liking is no strong predictor for food choice in real life environments. Therefore, the focus within recent studies shifted towards using emotion-profiling methods that successfully can discriminate between products that are equally liked. However, it is unclear how well scores from emotion-profiling methods predict actual food choice and/or consumption. To test this, we proposed to decompose emotion scores into valence and arousal scores using Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and apply Multinomial Logit Models (MLM) to estimate food choice using liking, valence, and arousal as possible predictors. For this analysis, we used an existing data set comprised of liking and food-evoked emotions scores from 123 participants, who rated 7 unlabeled breakfast drinks. Liking scores were measured using a 100-mm visual analogue scale, while food-evoked emotions were measured using 2 existing emotion-profiling methods: a verbal and a non-verbal method (EsSense Profile and PrEmo, respectively). After 7 days, participants were asked to choose 1 breakfast drink from the experiment to consume during breakfast in a simulated restaurant environment. Cross validation showed that we were able to correctly predict individualized food choice (1 out of 7 products) for over 50% of the participants. This number increased to nearly 80% when looking at the top 2 candidates. Model comparisons showed that evoked emotions better predict food choice than perceived liking alone. However, the strongest predictive strength was achieved by the combination of evoked emotions and liking. Furthermore we showed that non-verbal food-evoked emotion scores more accurately predict food choice than verbal food-evoked emotions scores.

Ensemble method for dengue prediction.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna L Buczak

Full Text Available In the 2015 NOAA Dengue Challenge, participants made three dengue target predictions for two locations (Iquitos, Peru, and San Juan, Puerto Rico during four dengue seasons: 1 peak height (i.e., maximum weekly number of cases during a transmission season; 2 peak week (i.e., week in which the maximum weekly number of cases occurred; and 3 total number of cases reported during a transmission season. A dengue transmission season is the 12-month period commencing with the location-specific, historical week with the lowest number of cases. At the beginning of the Dengue Challenge, participants were provided with the same input data for developing the models, with the prediction testing data provided at a later date.Our approach used ensemble models created by combining three disparate types of component models: 1 two-dimensional Method of Analogues models incorporating both dengue and climate data; 2 additive seasonal Holt-Winters models with and without wavelet smoothing; and 3 simple historical models. Of the individual component models created, those with the best performance on the prior four years of data were incorporated into the ensemble models. There were separate ensembles for predicting each of the three targets at each of the two locations.Our ensemble models scored higher for peak height and total dengue case counts reported in a transmission season for Iquitos than all other models submitted to the Dengue Challenge. However, the ensemble models did not do nearly as well when predicting the peak week.The Dengue Challenge organizers scored the dengue predictions of the Challenge participant groups. Our ensemble approach was the best in predicting the total number of dengue cases reported for transmission season and peak height for Iquitos, Peru.

Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying prospective memory.

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Cona, Giorgia; Arcara, Giorgio; Tarantino, Vincenza; Bisiacchi, Patrizia S

2015-01-01

Prospective memory (PM) represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs) to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signaled by a warning cue) for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioral and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views-the "Dynamic Multiprocess Framework" and the "Attention to Delayed Intention" (AtoDI) model-confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

Modeling Seizure Self-Prediction: An E-Diary Study

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Haut, Sheryl R.; Hall, Charles B.; Borkowski, Thomas; Tennen, Howard; Lipton, Richard B.

2013-01-01

Purpose A subset of patients with epilepsy successfully self-predicted seizures in a paper diary study. We conducted an e-diary study to ensure that prediction precedes seizures, and to characterize the prodromal features and time windows that underlie self-prediction. Methods Subjects 18 or older with LRE and ≥3 seizures/month maintained an e-diary, reporting AM/PM data daily, including mood, premonitory symptoms, and all seizures. Self-prediction was rated by, “How likely are you to experience a seizure [time frame]”? Five choices ranged from almost certain (>95% chance) to very unlikely. Relative odds of seizure (OR) within time frames was examined using Poisson models with log normal random effects to adjust for multiple observations. Key Findings Nineteen subjects reported 244 eligible seizures. OR for prediction choices within 6hrs was as high as 9.31 (1.92,45.23) for “almost certain”. Prediction was most robust within 6hrs of diary entry, and remained significant up to 12hrs. For 9 best predictors, average sensitivity was 50%. Older age contributed to successful self-prediction, and self-prediction appeared to be driven by mood and premonitory symptoms. In multivariate modeling of seizure occurrence, self-prediction (2.84; 1.68,4.81), favorable change in mood (0.82; 0.67,0.99) and number of premonitory symptoms (1,11; 1.00,1.24) were significant. Significance Some persons with epilepsy can self-predict seizures. In these individuals, the odds of a seizure following a positive prediction are high. Predictions were robust, not attributable to recall bias, and were related to self awareness of mood and premonitory features. The 6-hour prediction window is suitable for the development of pre-emptive therapy. PMID:24111898

Evaluation of environmental impact predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cunningham, P.A.; Adams, S.M.; Kumar, K.D.

1977-01-01

An analysis and evaluation of the ecological monitoring program at the Surry Nuclear Power Plant showed that predictions of potential environmental impact made in the Final Environmental Statement (FES), which were based on generally accepted ecological principles, were not completely substantiated by environmental monitoring data. The Surry Nuclear Power Plant (Units 1 and 2) was chosen for study because of the facility's relatively continuous operating history and the availability of environmental data adequate for analysis. Preoperational and operational fish monitoring data were used to assess the validity of the FES prediction that fish would congregate in the thermal plume during winter months and would avoid the plume during summer months. Analysis of monitoring data showed that fish catch per unit effort (CPE) was generally high in the thermal plume during winter months; however, the highest fish catches occurred in the plume during the summer. Possible explanations for differences between the FES prediction and results observed in analysis of monitoring data are discussed, and general recommendations are outlined for improving impact assessment predictions

Prediction of natural gas consumption

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, R.L.; Walton, D.J.; Hoskins, W.D.

1993-01-01

Distributors of natural gas need to predict future consumption in order to purchase a sufficient supply on contract. Distributors that offer their customers equal payment plans need to predict the consumption of each customer 12 months in advance. Estimates of previous consumption are often used for months when meters are inaccessible, or bimonthly-read meters. Existing methods of predicting natural gas consumption, and a proposed new method for each local region are discussed. The proposed model distinguishes the consumption load factors from summer to other seasons by attempting to adjust them by introducing two parameters. The problem is then reduced to a quadratic programming problem. However, since it is not necessary to use both parameters simultaneously, the problem can be solved with a simple iterative procedure. Results show that the new model can improve the two-equation model to a certain scale. The adjustment to heat load factor can reduce the error of prediction markedly while that to base load factor influences the error marginally. 3 refs., 11 figs., 2 tabs

NetTurnP--neural network prediction of beta-turns by use of evolutionary information and predicted protein sequence features.

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Bent Petersen

Full Text Available UNLABELLED: β-turns are the most common type of non-repetitive structures, and constitute on average 25% of the amino acids in proteins. The formation of β-turns plays an important role in protein folding, protein stability and molecular recognition processes. In this work we present the neural network method NetTurnP, for prediction of two-class β-turns and prediction of the individual β-turn types, by use of evolutionary information and predicted protein sequence features. It has been evaluated against a commonly used dataset BT426, and achieves a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.50, which is the highest reported performance on a two-class prediction of β-turn and not-β-turn. Furthermore NetTurnP shows improved performance on some of the specific β-turn types. In the present work, neural network methods have been trained to predict β-turn or not and individual β-turn types from the primary amino acid sequence. The individual β-turn types I, I', II, II', VIII, VIa1, VIa2, VIba and IV have been predicted based on classifications by PROMOTIF, and the two-class prediction of β-turn or not is a superset comprised of all β-turn types. The performance is evaluated using a golden set of non-homologous sequences known as BT426. Our two-class prediction method achieves a performance of: MCC=0.50, Qtotal=82.1%, sensitivity=75.6%, PPV=68.8% and AUC=0.864. We have compared our performance to eleven other prediction methods that obtain Matthews correlation coefficients in the range of 0.17-0.47. For the type specific β-turn predictions, only type I and II can be predicted with reasonable Matthews correlation coefficients, where we obtain performance values of 0.36 and 0.31, respectively. CONCLUSION: The NetTurnP method has been implemented as a webserver, which is freely available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetTurnP/. NetTurnP is the only available webserver that allows submission of multiple sequences.

NetTurnP--neural network prediction of beta-turns by use of evolutionary information and predicted protein sequence features.

Science.gov (United States)

Petersen, Bent; Lundegaard, Claus; Petersen, Thomas Nordahl

2010-11-30

β-turns are the most common type of non-repetitive structures, and constitute on average 25% of the amino acids in proteins. The formation of β-turns plays an important role in protein folding, protein stability and molecular recognition processes. In this work we present the neural network method NetTurnP, for prediction of two-class β-turns and prediction of the individual β-turn types, by use of evolutionary information and predicted protein sequence features. It has been evaluated against a commonly used dataset BT426, and achieves a Matthews correlation coefficient of 0.50, which is the highest reported performance on a two-class prediction of β-turn and not-β-turn. Furthermore NetTurnP shows improved performance on some of the specific β-turn types. In the present work, neural network methods have been trained to predict β-turn or not and individual β-turn types from the primary amino acid sequence. The individual β-turn types I, I', II, II', VIII, VIa1, VIa2, VIba and IV have been predicted based on classifications by PROMOTIF, and the two-class prediction of β-turn or not is a superset comprised of all β-turn types. The performance is evaluated using a golden set of non-homologous sequences known as BT426. Our two-class prediction method achieves a performance of: MCC=0.50, Qtotal=82.1%, sensitivity=75.6%, PPV=68.8% and AUC=0.864. We have compared our performance to eleven other prediction methods that obtain Matthews correlation coefficients in the range of 0.17-0.47. For the type specific β-turn predictions, only type I and II can be predicted with reasonable Matthews correlation coefficients, where we obtain performance values of 0.36 and 0.31, respectively. The NetTurnP method has been implemented as a webserver, which is freely available at http://www.cbs.dtu.dk/services/NetTurnP/. NetTurnP is the only available webserver that allows submission of multiple sequences.

SEIZURE PREDICTION: THE FOURTH INTERNATIONAL WORKSHOP

Science.gov (United States)

Zaveri, Hitten P.; Frei, Mark G.; Arthurs, Susan; Osorio, Ivan

2010-01-01

The recently convened Fourth International Workshop on Seizure Prediction (IWSP4) brought together a diverse international group of investigators, from academia and industry, including epileptologists, neurosurgeons, neuroscientists, computer scientists, engineers, physicists, and mathematicians who are conducting interdisciplinary research on the prediction and control of seizures. IWSP4 allowed the presentation and discussion of results, an exchange of ideas, an assessment of the status of seizure prediction, control and related fields and the fostering of collaborative projects. PMID:20674508

Predicting Process Behaviour using Deep Learning

OpenAIRE

Evermann, Joerg; Rehse, Jana-Rebecca; Fettke, Peter

2016-01-01

Predicting business process behaviour is an important aspect of business process management. Motivated by research in natural language processing, this paper describes an application of deep learning with recurrent neural networks to the problem of predicting the next event in a business process. This is both a novel method in process prediction, which has largely relied on explicit process models, and also a novel application of deep learning methods. The approach is evaluated on two real da...

Sports Tournament Predictions Using Direct Manipulation

OpenAIRE

Vuillemot , Romain; Perin , Charles

2016-01-01

An advanced interface for sports tournament predictions uses direct manipulation to allow users to make nonlinear predictions. Unlike previous interface designs, the interface helps users focus on their prediction tasks by enabling them to first choose a winner and then fill out the rest of the bracket. In real-world tests of the proposed interface (for the 2014 FIFA World Cup tournament and 2015/2016 UEFA Champions League), the authors validated the use of direct manipulation as an alternati...

Applications for predictive microbiology to food packaging

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Predictive microbiology has been used for several years in the food industry to predict microbial growth, inactivation and survival. Predictive models provide a useful tool in risk assessment, HACCP set-up and GMP for the food industry to enhance microbial food safety. This report introduces the c...

Predictive technologies: Can smart tools augment the brain’s predictive abilities?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni ePezzulo

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The ability of looking into the future – namely, the capacity of anticipating future states of the environment or of the body – represents a fundamental function of human (and animal brains. A goalkeeper who tries to guess the ball’s direction; a chess player who attempts to anticipate the opponent’s next move; or a man-in-love who tries to calculate what are the chances of her saying yes – in all these cases, people are simulating possible future states of the world, in order to maximize the success of their decisions or actions. Research in neuroscience is showing that our ability to predict the behaviour of physical or social phenomena is largely dependent on the brain’s ability to integrate current and past information to generate (probabilistic simulations of the future. But could predictive processing be augmented using advanced technologies? In this contribution, we discuss how computational technologies may be used to support, facilitate or enhance the prediction of future events, by considering exemplificative scenarios across different domains, from simpler sensorimotor decisions to more complex cognitive tasks. We also examine the key scientific and technical challenges that must be faced to turn this vision into reality.

Long-term prediction of chaotic time series with multi-step prediction horizons by a neural network with Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mirzaee, Hossein

2009-01-01

The Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm is applied for training a multilayer perception with three hidden layer each with ten neurons in order to carefully map the structure of chaotic time series such as Mackey-Glass time series. First the MLP network is trained with 1000 data, and then it is tested with next 500 data. After that the trained and tested network is applied for long-term prediction of next 120 data which come after test data. The prediction is such a way that, the first inputs to network for prediction are the four last data of test data, then the predicted value is shifted to the regression vector which is the input to the network, then after first four-step of prediction, the input regression vector to network is fully predicted values and in continue, each predicted data is shifted to input vector for subsequent prediction.

Sweat loss prediction using a multi-model approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Xiaojiang; Santee, William R

2011-07-01

A new multi-model approach (MMA) for sweat loss prediction is proposed to improve prediction accuracy. MMA was computed as the average of sweat loss predicted by two existing thermoregulation models: i.e., the rational model SCENARIO and the empirical model Heat Strain Decision Aid (HSDA). Three independent physiological datasets, a total of 44 trials, were used to compare predictions by MMA, SCENARIO, and HSDA. The observed sweat losses were collected under different combinations of uniform ensembles, environmental conditions (15-40°C, RH 25-75%), and exercise intensities (250-600 W). Root mean square deviation (RMSD), residual plots, and paired t tests were used to compare predictions with observations. Overall, MMA reduced RMSD by 30-39% in comparison with either SCENARIO or HSDA, and increased the prediction accuracy to 66% from 34% or 55%. Of the MMA predictions, 70% fell within the range of mean observed value ± SD, while only 43% of SCENARIO and 50% of HSDA predictions fell within the same range. Paired t tests showed that differences between observations and MMA predictions were not significant, but differences between observations and SCENARIO or HSDA predictions were significantly different for two datasets. Thus, MMA predicted sweat loss more accurately than either of the two single models for the three datasets used. Future work will be to evaluate MMA using additional physiological data to expand the scope of populations and conditions.

A secreted protein is an endogenous chemorepellant in Dictyostelium discoideum

OpenAIRE

Phillips, Jonathan E.; Gomer, Richard H.

2012-01-01

Chemorepellants may play multiple roles in physiological and pathological processes. However, few endogenous chemorepellants have been identified, and how they function is unclear. We found that the autocrine signal AprA, which is produced by growing Dictyostelium discoideum cells and inhibits their proliferation, also functions as a chemorepellant. Wild-type cells at the edge of a colony show directed movement outward from the colony, whereas cells lacking AprA do not. Cells show directed mo...

GPCR-Mediated Signaling of Metabolites

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Husted, Anna Sofie; Trauelsen, Mette; Rudenko, Olga

2017-01-01

microbiota target primarily enteroendocrine, neuronal, and immune cells in the lamina propria of the gut mucosa and the liver and, through these tissues, the rest of the body. In contrast, metabolites from the intermediary metabolism act mainly as metabolic stress-induced autocrine and paracrine signals...... and obesity. The concept of key metabolites as ligands for specific GPCRs has broadened our understanding of metabolic signaling significantly and provides a number of novel potential drug targets....

The Role and Regulation of TNF-Alpha in Normal Rat Mammary Gland During Development and in Breast Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

1996-07-01

autocrine synthesis of TNFcx by the MEC as well. Normally, there is strict control of the expression of this cytokine; however, it is possible that any...1,2-benz-anthracene (DMBA) (Sigma, St. Louis, MO) (in corn oil) p.o. using standard protocols (30) or via i.p. injection of 1-methyl-l- nitrosourea ...Beutler, B. Dexamethasone and pentoxifylline inhibit endotoxin- induced cachectin/tumor necrosis factor synthesis at separate points in the signalling

Selecting the minimum prediction base of historical data to perform 5-year predictions of the cancer burden: The GoF-optimal method.

Science.gov (United States)

Valls, Joan; Castellà, Gerard; Dyba, Tadeusz; Clèries, Ramon

2015-06-01

Predicting the future burden of cancer is a key issue for health services planning, where a method for selecting the predictive model and the prediction base is a challenge. A method, named here Goodness-of-Fit optimal (GoF-optimal), is presented to determine the minimum prediction base of historical data to perform 5-year predictions of the number of new cancer cases or deaths. An empirical ex-post evaluation exercise for cancer mortality data in Spain and cancer incidence in Finland using simple linear and log-linear Poisson models was performed. Prediction bases were considered within the time periods 1951-2006 in Spain and 1975-2007 in Finland, and then predictions were made for 37 and 33 single years in these periods, respectively. The performance of three fixed different prediction bases (last 5, 10, and 20 years of historical data) was compared to that of the prediction base determined by the GoF-optimal method. The coverage (COV) of the 95% prediction interval and the discrepancy ratio (DR) were calculated to assess the success of the prediction. The results showed that (i) models using the prediction base selected through GoF-optimal method reached the highest COV and the lowest DR and (ii) the best alternative strategy to GoF-optimal was the one using the base of prediction of 5-years. The GoF-optimal approach can be used as a selection criterion in order to find an adequate base of prediction. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

CCTOP: a Consensus Constrained TOPology prediction web server.

Science.gov (United States)

Dobson, László; Reményi, István; Tusnády, Gábor E

2015-07-01

The Consensus Constrained TOPology prediction (CCTOP; http://cctop.enzim.ttk.mta.hu) server is a web-based application providing transmembrane topology prediction. In addition to utilizing 10 different state-of-the-art topology prediction methods, the CCTOP server incorporates topology information from existing experimental and computational sources available in the PDBTM, TOPDB and TOPDOM databases using the probabilistic framework of hidden Markov model. The server provides the option to precede the topology prediction with signal peptide prediction and transmembrane-globular protein discrimination. The initial result can be recalculated by (de)selecting any of the prediction methods or mapped experiments or by adding user specified constraints. CCTOP showed superior performance to existing approaches. The reliability of each prediction is also calculated, which correlates with the accuracy of the per protein topology prediction. The prediction results and the collected experimental information are visualized on the CCTOP home page and can be downloaded in XML format. Programmable access of the CCTOP server is also available, and an example of client-side script is provided. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Nucleic Acids Research.

Predicting results of daily-practice cystoscopies.

Science.gov (United States)

García-Velandria, F; Sánchez-García, J F; Rodríguez-Toves, L A; Alvarez-Buitrago, L; Conde-Redondo, C; Rodríguez-Tesedo, V; Amón-Sesmero, J H; Cepeda-Delgado, M; Cobos-Carbó, A; Alonso-Fernández, D; Martínez-Sagarra, J M

2014-10-01

Our objective was to elaborate a predictive model of bladder cancer, in an unselected clinical population submitted to cystoscopy. We recruited consecutive patients that underwent cystoscopy due to suspicion of bladder cancer or surveillance of a previously diagnosed bladder cancer. Urine cytology and a BTA-stat® (BTA) test were carried out for all patients. To avoid an assessment bias, the BTA-tests, cytologies and cystoscopies were conducted in a blinded fashion. We used logistic regression to predict cystoscopy results from cytology, BTA-test and clinical variables. From August 2011 to July 2012, we recruited 244 patients and 237 were valid for analysis. Newly diagnosed and surveillance cases were 13% and 87% respectively. Cytology and BTA-test sensitivities were 57.9% (CI 95: 42.2-72.1) and 63.2% (CI 95: 47.3-76.6) with specificities of 84.4% (CI 95: 78.7-88.8) and 82.9% (CI 95: 77.1-87.5). The predictive model included the BTA-test, cytology, time since previous tumour, and treatment with mitomicin or BGC during the last three months. The model predictive accuracy (AUC) was .85 (.78-.92), and dropped to 0.79 when excluding the BTA-test (P=.026). For the surveillance of bladder cancer, a 10% threshold on the model predicted probabilities resulted in an overall negative predictive value of 95.7%, and 95.0% in low grade tumours. In a cost containment environment, our prediction model could be used to space out cystoscopies in patients with previous, low grade tumours, resulting in a more efficient use of resources in the healthcare system. Copyright © 2013 AEU. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

Prediction methods and databases within chemoinformatics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsdóttir, Svava Osk; Jørgensen, Flemming Steen; Brunak, Søren

2005-01-01

MOTIVATION: To gather information about available databases and chemoinformatics methods for prediction of properties relevant to the drug discovery and optimization process. RESULTS: We present an overview of the most important databases with 2-dimensional and 3-dimensional structural information...... about drugs and drug candidates, and of databases with relevant properties. Access to experimental data and numerical methods for selecting and utilizing these data is crucial for developing accurate predictive in silico models. Many interesting predictive methods for classifying the suitability...

Caregiver Responsiveness to the Family Bereavement Program: What predicts responsiveness? What does responsiveness predict?

OpenAIRE

Schoenfelder, Erin N.; Sandler, Irwin N.; Millsap, Roger E.; Wolchik, Sharlene A.; Berkel, Cady; Ayers, Timothy S.

2013-01-01

The study developed a multi-dimensional measure to assess participant responsiveness to a preventive intervention, and applied this measure to study how participant baseline characteristics predict responsiveness and how responsiveness predicts program outcomes. The study was conducted with caregivers who participated in the parenting-focused component of the Family Bereavement Program (FBP), a prevention program for families that have experienced parental death. The sample consisted of 89 ca...

Refining intra-protein contact prediction by graph analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eyal Eran

2007-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Accurate prediction of intra-protein residue contacts from sequence information will allow the prediction of protein structures. Basic predictions of such specific contacts can be further refined by jointly analyzing predicted contacts, and by adding information on the relative positions of contacts in the protein primary sequence. Results We introduce a method for graph analysis refinement of intra-protein contacts, termed GARP. Our previously presented intra-contact prediction method by means of pair-to-pair substitution matrix (P2PConPred was used to test the GARP method. In our approach, the top contact predictions obtained by a basic prediction method were used as edges to create a weighted graph. The edges were scored by a mutual clustering coefficient that identifies highly connected graph regions, and by the density of edges between the sequence regions of the edge nodes. A test set of 57 proteins with known structures was used to determine contacts. GARP improves the accuracy of the P2PConPred basic prediction method in whole proteins from 12% to 18%. Conclusion Using a simple approach we increased the contact prediction accuracy of a basic method by 1.5 times. Our graph approach is simple to implement, can be used with various basic prediction methods, and can provide input for further downstream analyses.

Robust predictions of the interacting boson model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casten, R.F.; Koeln Univ.

1994-01-01

While most recognized for its symmetries and algebraic structure, the IBA model has other less-well-known but equally intrinsic properties which give unavoidable, parameter-free predictions. These predictions concern central aspects of low-energy nuclear collective structure. This paper outlines these ''robust'' predictions and compares them with the data

First trimester prediction of maternal glycemic status.

Science.gov (United States)

Gabbay-Benziv, Rinat; Doyle, Lauren E; Blitzer, Miriam; Baschat, Ahmet A

2015-05-01

To predict gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) or normoglycemic status using first trimester maternal characteristics. We used data from a prospective cohort study. First trimester maternal characteristics were compared between women with and without GDM. Association of these variables with sugar values at glucose challenge test (GCT) and subsequent GDM was tested to identify key parameters. A predictive algorithm for GDM was developed and receiver operating characteristics (ROC) statistics was used to derive the optimal risk score. We defined normoglycemic state, when GCT and all four sugar values at oral glucose tolerance test, whenever obtained, were normal. Using same statistical approach, we developed an algorithm to predict the normoglycemic state. Maternal age, race, prior GDM, first trimester BMI, and systolic blood pressure (SBP) were all significantly associated with GDM. Age, BMI, and SBP were also associated with GCT values. The logistic regression analysis constructed equation and the calculated risk score yielded sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value of 85%, 62%, 13.8%, and 98.3% for a cut-off value of 0.042, respectively (ROC-AUC - area under the curve 0.819, CI - confidence interval 0.769-0.868). The model constructed for normoglycemia prediction demonstrated lower performance (ROC-AUC 0.707, CI 0.668-0.746). GDM prediction can be achieved during the first trimester encounter by integration of maternal characteristics and basic measurements while normoglycemic status prediction is less effective.

The Comparison Study of Short-Term Prediction Methods to Enhance the Model Predictive Controller Applied to Microgrid Energy Management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

César Hernández-Hernández

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Electricity load forecasting, optimal power system operation and energy management play key roles that can bring significant operational advantages to microgrids. This paper studies how methods based on time series and neural networks can be used to predict energy demand and production, allowing them to be combined with model predictive control. Comparisons of different prediction methods and different optimum energy distribution scenarios are provided, permitting us to determine when short-term energy prediction models should be used. The proposed prediction models in addition to the model predictive control strategy appear as a promising solution to energy management in microgrids. The controller has the task of performing the management of electricity purchase and sale to the power grid, maximizing the use of renewable energy sources and managing the use of the energy storage system. Simulations were performed with different weather conditions of solar irradiation. The obtained results are encouraging for future practical implementation.

Predicting RNA Structure Using Mutual Information

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Freyhult, E.; Moulton, V.; Gardner, P. P.

2005-01-01

, to display and predict conserved RNA secondary structure (including pseudoknots) from an alignment. Results: We show that MIfold can be used to predict simple pseudoknots, and that the performance can be adjusted to make it either more sensitive or more selective. We also demonstrate that the overall...... package. Conclusion: MIfold provides a useful supplementary tool to programs such as RNA Structure Logo, RNAalifold and COVE, and should be useful for automatically generating structural predictions for databases such as Rfam. Availability: MIfold is freely available from http......Background: With the ever-increasing number of sequenced RNAs and the establishment of new RNA databases, such as the Comparative RNA Web Site and Rfam, there is a growing need for accurately and automatically predicting RNA structures from multiple alignments. Since RNA secondary structure...

Prediction of long-term creep curves

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oikawa, Hiroshi; Maruyama, Kouichi

1992-01-01

This paper aims at discussing how to predict long-term irradiation enhanced creep properties from short-term tests. The predictive method based on the θ concept was examined by using creep data of ferritic steels. The method was successful in predicting creep curves including the tertiary creep stage as well as rupture lifetimes. Some material constants involved in the method are insensitive to the irradiation environment, and their values obtained in thermal creep are applicable to irradiation enhanced creep. The creep mechanisms of most engineering materials definitely change at the athermal yield stress in the non-creep regime. One should be aware that short-term tests must be carried out at stresses lower than the athermal yield stress in order to predict the creep behavior of structural components correctly. (orig.)

The art of predicting nuclear masses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hirsch, J.G.; Morales, I.; Mendoza-Temis, J.; Frank, A.; Lopez-Vieyra, J.C.; Barea, J.; Pittel, S.; Van Isacker, P.; Velazquez, V.

2008-01-01

A review of recent advances in the theoretical analysis of nuclear mass models and their predictive power is presented. After introducing two tests which probe the ability of nuclear mass models to extrapolate, three models are analyzed in detail: the liquid drop model (LDM), the liquid drop model plus empirical shell corrections (LDMM) and the Duflo–Zuker mass formula (DZ). The DZ model is exhibited as the most predictive model. The Garvey–Kelson mass relations are also discussed. It is shown that their fulfillment probes the consistency of the most commonly used mass formulae, and that they can be used in an iterative process to predict nuclear masses in the neighborhood of nuclei with measured masses, offering a simple and reproducible procedure for short range mass predictions. (author)

Prediction of Antibody Epitopes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Morten; Marcatili, Paolo

2015-01-01

Antibodies recognize their cognate antigens in a precise and effective way. In order to do so, they target regions of the antigenic molecules that have specific features such as large exposed areas, presence of charged or polar atoms, specific secondary structure elements, and lack of similarity...... to self-proteins. Given the sequence or the structure of a protein of interest, several methods exploit such features to predict the residues that are more likely to be recognized by an immunoglobulin.Here, we present two methods (BepiPred and DiscoTope) to predict linear and discontinuous antibody...

Predicting tile drainage discharge

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Iversen, Bo Vangsø; Kjærgaard, Charlotte; Petersen, Rasmus Jes

used in the analysis. For the dynamic modelling, a simple linear reservoir model was used where different outlets in the model represented tile drain as well as groundwater discharge outputs. This modelling was based on daily measured tile drain discharge values. The statistical predictive model...... was based on a polynomial regression predicting yearly tile drain discharge values using site specific parameters such as soil type, catchment topography, etc. as predictors. Values of calibrated model parameters from the dynamic modelling were compared to the same site specific parameter as used...

Testing earthquake prediction algorithms: Statistically significant advance prediction of the largest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific, 1992-1997

Science.gov (United States)

Kossobokov, V.G.; Romashkova, L.L.; Keilis-Borok, V. I.; Healy, J.H.

1999-01-01

Algorithms M8 and MSc (i.e., the Mendocino Scenario) were used in a real-time intermediate-term research prediction of the strongest earthquakes in the Circum-Pacific seismic belt. Predictions are made by M8 first. Then, the areas of alarm are reduced by MSc at the cost that some earthquakes are missed in the second approximation of prediction. In 1992-1997, five earthquakes of magnitude 8 and above occurred in the test area: all of them were predicted by M8 and MSc identified correctly the locations of four of them. The space-time volume of the alarms is 36% and 18%, correspondingly, when estimated with a normalized product measure of empirical distribution of epicenters and uniform time. The statistical significance of the achieved results is beyond 99% both for M8 and MSc. For magnitude 7.5 + , 10 out of 19 earthquakes were predicted by M8 in 40% and five were predicted by M8-MSc in 13% of the total volume considered. This implies a significance level of 81% for M8 and 92% for M8-MSc. The lower significance levels might result from a global change in seismic regime in 1993-1996, when the rate of the largest events has doubled and all of them become exclusively normal or reversed faults. The predictions are fully reproducible; the algorithms M8 and MSc in complete formal definitions were published before we started our experiment [Keilis-Borok, V.I., Kossobokov, V.G., 1990. Premonitory activation of seismic flow: Algorithm M8, Phys. Earth and Planet. Inter. 61, 73-83; Kossobokov, V.G., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Smith, S.W., 1990. Localization of intermediate-term earthquake prediction, J. Geophys. Res., 95, 19763-19772; Healy, J.H., Kossobokov, V.G., Dewey, J.W., 1992. A test to evaluate the earthquake prediction algorithm, M8. U.S. Geol. Surv. OFR 92-401]. M8 is available from the IASPEI Software Library [Healy, J.H., Keilis-Borok, V.I., Lee, W.H.K. (Eds.), 1997. Algorithms for Earthquake Statistics and Prediction, Vol. 6. IASPEI Software Library]. ?? 1999 Elsevier

Genomic Prediction of Manganese Efficiency in Winter Barley

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Florian Leplat

2016-07-01

Full Text Available Manganese efficiency is a quantitative abiotic stress trait controlled by several genes each with a small effect. Manganese deficiency leads to yield reduction in winter barley ( L.. Breeding new cultivars for this trait remains difficult because of the lack of visual symptoms and the polygenic features of the trait. Hence, Mn efficiency is a potential suitable trait for a genomic selection (GS approach. A collection of 248 winter barley varieties was screened for Mn efficiency using Chlorophyll (Chl fluorescence in six environments prone to induce Mn deficiency. Two models for genomic prediction were implemented to predict future performance and breeding value of untested varieties. Predictions were obtained using multivariate mixed models: best linear unbiased predictor (BLUP and genomic best linear unbiased predictor (G-BLUP. In the first model, predictions were based on the phenotypic evaluation, whereas both phenotypic and genomic marker data were included in the second model. Accuracy of predicting future phenotype, , and accuracy of predicting true breeding values, , were calculated and compared for both models using six cross-validation (CV schemes; these were designed to mimic plant breeding programs. Overall, the CVs showed that prediction accuracies increased when using the G-BLUP model compared with the prediction accuracies using the BLUP model. Furthermore, the accuracies [] of predicting breeding values were more accurate than accuracy of predicting future phenotypes []. The study confirms that genomic data may enhance the prediction accuracy. Moreover it indicates that GS is a suitable breeding approach for quantitative abiotic stress traits.

Predicting Human Cooperation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John J Nay

Full Text Available The Prisoner's Dilemma has been a subject of extensive research due to its importance in understanding the ever-present tension between individual self-interest and social benefit. A strictly dominant strategy in a Prisoner's Dilemma (defection, when played by both players, is mutually harmful. Repetition of the Prisoner's Dilemma can give rise to cooperation as an equilibrium, but defection is as well, and this ambiguity is difficult to resolve. The numerous behavioral experiments investigating the Prisoner's Dilemma highlight that players often cooperate, but the level of cooperation varies significantly with the specifics of the experimental predicament. We present the first computational model of human behavior in repeated Prisoner's Dilemma games that unifies the diversity of experimental observations in a systematic and quantitatively reliable manner. Our model relies on data we integrated from many experiments, comprising 168,386 individual decisions. The model is composed of two pieces: the first predicts the first-period action using solely the structural game parameters, while the second predicts dynamic actions using both game parameters and history of play. Our model is successful not merely at fitting the data, but in predicting behavior at multiple scales in experimental designs not used for calibration, using only information about the game structure. We demonstrate the power of our approach through a simulation analysis revealing how to best promote human cooperation.

Modelling bankruptcy prediction models in Slovak companies

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kovacova Maria

2017-01-01

Full Text Available An intensive research from academics and practitioners has been provided regarding models for bankruptcy prediction and credit risk management. In spite of numerous researches focusing on forecasting bankruptcy using traditional statistics techniques (e.g. discriminant analysis and logistic regression and early artificial intelligence models (e.g. artificial neural networks, there is a trend for transition to machine learning models (support vector machines, bagging, boosting, and random forest to predict bankruptcy one year prior to the event. Comparing the performance of this with unconventional approach with results obtained by discriminant analysis, logistic regression, and neural networks application, it has been found that bagging, boosting, and random forest models outperform the others techniques, and that all prediction accuracy in the testing sample improves when the additional variables are included. On the other side the prediction accuracy of old and well known bankruptcy prediction models is quiet high. Therefore, we aim to analyse these in some way old models on the dataset of Slovak companies to validate their prediction ability in specific conditions. Furthermore, these models will be modelled according to new trends by calculating the influence of elimination of selected variables on the overall prediction ability of these models.

Comparison of the Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model with standard mortality prediction tools.

Science.gov (United States)

Srinivasan, M; Shetty, N; Gadekari, S; Thunga, G; Rao, K; Kunhikatta, V

2017-07-01

Severity or mortality prediction of nosocomial pneumonia could aid in the effective triage of patients and assisting physicians. To compare various severity assessment scoring systems for predicting intensive care unit (ICU) mortality in nosocomial pneumonia patients. A prospective cohort study was conducted in a tertiary care university-affiliated hospital in Manipal, India. One hundred patients with nosocomial pneumonia, admitted in the ICUs who developed pneumonia after >48h of admission, were included. The Nosocomial Pneumonia Mortality Prediction (NPMP) model, developed in our hospital, was compared with Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), Mortality Probability Model II (MPM 72  II), Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II), Multiple Organ Dysfunction Score (MODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Clinical Pulmonary Infection Score (CPIS), Ventilator-Associated Pneumonia Predisposition, Insult, Response, Organ dysfunction (VAP-PIRO). Data and clinical variables were collected on the day of pneumonia diagnosis. The outcome for the study was ICU mortality. The sensitivity and specificity of the various scoring systems was analysed by plotting receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and computing the area under the curve for each of the mortality predicting tools. NPMP, APACHE II, SAPS II, MPM 72  II, SOFA, and VAP-PIRO were found to have similar and acceptable discrimination power as assessed by the area under the ROC curve. The AUC values for the above scores ranged from 0.735 to 0.762. CPIS and MODS showed least discrimination. NPMP is a specific tool to predict mortality in nosocomial pneumonia and is comparable to other standard scores. Copyright © 2017 The Healthcare Infection Society. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Prediction of dementia in primary care patients.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frank Jessen

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Current approaches for AD prediction are based on biomarkers, which are however of restricted availability in primary care. AD prediction tools for primary care are therefore needed. We present a prediction score based on information that can be obtained in the primary care setting. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We performed a longitudinal cohort study in 3.055 non-demented individuals above 75 years recruited via primary care chart registries (Study on Aging, Cognition and Dementia, AgeCoDe. After the baseline investigation we performed three follow-up investigations at 18 months intervals with incident dementia as the primary outcome. The best set of predictors was extracted from the baseline variables in one randomly selected half of the sample. This set included age, subjective memory impairment, performance on delayed verbal recall and verbal fluency, on the Mini-Mental-State-Examination, and on an instrumental activities of daily living scale. These variables were aggregated to a prediction score, which achieved a prediction accuracy of 0.84 for AD. The score was applied to the second half of the sample (test cohort. Here, the prediction accuracy was 0.79. With a cut-off of at least 80% sensitivity in the first cohort, 79.6% sensitivity, 66.4% specificity, 14.7% positive predictive value (PPV and 97.8% negative predictive value of (NPV for AD were achieved in the test cohort. At a cut-off for a high risk population (5% of individuals with the highest risk score in the first cohort the PPV for AD was 39.1% (52% for any dementia in the test cohort. CONCLUSIONS: The prediction score has useful prediction accuracy. It can define individuals (1 sensitively for low cost-low risk interventions, or (2 more specific and with increased PPV for measures of prevention with greater costs or risks. As it is independent of technical aids, it may be used within large scale prevention programs.

Prediction and Monitoring of Monsoon Intraseasonal Oscillations over Indian Monsoon Region in an Ensemble Prediction System using CFSv2

Science.gov (United States)

Borah, Nabanita; Sukumarpillai, Abhilash; Sahai, Atul Kumar; Chattopadhyay, Rajib; Joseph, Susmitha; De, Soumyendu; Nath Goswami, Bhupendra; Kumar, Arun

2014-05-01

An ensemble prediction system (EPS) is devised for the extended range prediction (ERP) of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) using NCEP Climate Forecast System model version2 at T126 horizontal resolution. The EPS is formulated by producing 11 member ensembles through the perturbation of atmospheric initial conditions. The hindcast experiments were conducted at every 5-day interval for 45 days lead time starting from 16th May to 28th September during 2001-2012. The general simulation of ISM characteristics and the ERP skill of the proposed EPS at pentad mean scale are evaluated in the present study. Though the EPS underestimates both the mean and variability of ISM rainfall, it simulates the northward propagation of MISO reasonably well. It is found that the signal-to-noise ratio becomes unity by about18 days and the predictability error saturates by about 25 days. Though useful deterministic forecasts could be generated up to 2nd pentad lead, significant correlations are observed even up to 4th pentad lead. The skill in predicting large-scale MISO, which is assessed by comparing the predicted and observed MISO indices, is found to be ~17 days. It is noted that the prediction skill of actual rainfall is closely related to the prediction of amplitude of large scale MISO as well as the initial conditions related to the different phases of MISO. Categorical prediction skills reveals that break is more skillfully predicted, followed by active and then normal. The categorical probability skill scores suggest that useful probabilistic forecasts could be generated even up to 4th pentad lead.

Prostate Cancer Probability Prediction By Machine Learning Technique.

Science.gov (United States)

Jović, Srđan; Miljković, Milica; Ivanović, Miljan; Šaranović, Milena; Arsić, Milena

2017-11-26

The main goal of the study was to explore possibility of prostate cancer prediction by machine learning techniques. In order to improve the survival probability of the prostate cancer patients it is essential to make suitable prediction models of the prostate cancer. If one make relevant prediction of the prostate cancer it is easy to create suitable treatment based on the prediction results. Machine learning techniques are the most common techniques for the creation of the predictive models. Therefore in this study several machine techniques were applied and compared. The obtained results were analyzed and discussed. It was concluded that the machine learning techniques could be used for the relevant prediction of prostate cancer.

Wind prediction in Malaysia using Mycielski-1 approach

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, S. W.; Kok, B. C.; Goh, K. C.; Goh, H. H.

2012-11-01

In this paper, the wind speed prediction in Kudat, Malaysia had been done by using Mycielski-1 approach. There is some improvement in obtaining the random number of Mycielski-1. The wind prediction is important to study a favorable site's wind potential. The prediction is based on 3 years history data provided by Meteorology Department of Malaysia and 1 year data as the reference to check the accuracy of this algorithm. The basic concept of this algorithm is to predict the next value by looking to history data. The result shows the prediction of Mycielski-1 algorithm is promising. The wind speed is predicted in order to obtain the mean power for energy planning.

Predicting persuasion-induced behavior change from the brain.

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Emily B; Berkman, Elliot T; Mann, Traci; Harrison, Brittany; Lieberman, Matthew D

2010-06-23

Although persuasive messages often alter people's self-reported attitudes and intentions to perform behaviors, these self-reports do not necessarily predict behavior change. We demonstrate that neural responses to persuasive messages can predict variability in behavior change in the subsequent week. Specifically, an a priori region of interest (ROI) in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) was reliably associated with behavior change (r = 0.49, p change beyond the variance predicted by self-reported attitudes and intentions. Thus, neural signals can predict behavioral changes that are not predicted from self-reported attitudes and intentions alone. Additionally, this is the first functional magnetic resonance imaging study to demonstrate that a neural signal can predict complex real world behavior days in advance.

Extracting falsifiable predictions from sloppy models.

Science.gov (United States)

Gutenkunst, Ryan N; Casey, Fergal P; Waterfall, Joshua J; Myers, Christopher R; Sethna, James P

2007-12-01

Successful predictions are among the most compelling validations of any model. Extracting falsifiable predictions from nonlinear multiparameter models is complicated by the fact that such models are commonly sloppy, possessing sensitivities to different parameter combinations that range over many decades. Here we discuss how sloppiness affects the sorts of data that best constrain model predictions, makes linear uncertainty approximations dangerous, and introduces computational difficulties in Monte-Carlo uncertainty analysis. We also present a useful test problem and suggest refinements to the standards by which models are communicated.

Model predictive Controller for Mobile Robot

OpenAIRE

Alireza Rezaee

2017-01-01

This paper proposes a Model Predictive Controller (MPC) for control of a P2AT mobile robot. MPC refers to a group of controllers that employ a distinctly identical model of process to predict its future behavior over an extended prediction horizon. The design of a MPC is formulated as an optimal control problem. Then this problem is considered as linear quadratic equation (LQR) and is solved by making use of Ricatti equation. To show the effectiveness of the proposed method this controller is...

Effects of historical and predictive information on ability of transport pilot to predict an alert

Science.gov (United States)

Trujillo, Anna C.

1994-01-01

In the aviation community, the early detection of the development of a possible subsystem problem during a flight is potentially useful for increasing the safety of the flight. Commercial airlines are currently using twin-engine aircraft for extended transport operations over water, and the early detection of a possible problem might increase the flight crew's options for safely landing the aircraft. One method for decreasing the severity of a developing problem is to predict the behavior of the problem so that appropriate corrective actions can be taken. To investigate the pilots' ability to predict long-term events, a computer workstation experiment was conducted in which 18 airline pilots predicted the alert time (the time to an alert) using 3 different dial displays and 3 different parameter behavior complexity levels. The three dial displays were as follows: standard (resembling current aircraft round dial presentations); history (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec in the past); and predictive (indicating the current value plus the value of the parameter 5 sec into the future). The time profiles describing the behavior of the parameter consisted of constant rate-of-change profiles, decelerating profiles, and accelerating-then-decelerating profiles. Although the pilots indicated that they preferred the near term predictive dial, the objective data did not support its use. The objective data did show that the time profiles had the most significant effect on performance in estimating the time to an alert.

Wind Power Prediction Considering Nonlinear Atmospheric Disturbances

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yagang Zhang

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper considers the effect of nonlinear atmospheric disturbances on wind power prediction. A Lorenz system is introduced as an atmospheric disturbance model. Three new improved wind forecasting models combined with a Lorenz comprehensive disturbance are put forward in this study. Firstly, we define the form of the Lorenz disturbance variable and the wind speed perturbation formula. Then, different artificial neural network models are used to verify the new idea and obtain better wind speed predictions. Finally we separately use the original and improved wind speed series to predict the related wind power. This proves that the corrected wind speed provides higher precision wind power predictions. This research presents a totally new direction in the wind prediction field and has profound theoretical research value and practical guiding significance.

Ellipsoidal prediction regions for multivariate uncertainty characterization

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Golestaneh, Faranak; Pinson, Pierre; Azizipanah-Abarghooee, Rasoul

2018-01-01

, for classes of decision-making problems based on robust, interval chance-constrained optimization, necessary inputs take the form of multivariate prediction regions rather than scenarios. The current literature is at very primitive stage of characterizing multivariate prediction regions to be employed...... in these classes of optimization problems. To address this issue, we introduce a new class of multivariate forecasts which form as multivariate ellipsoids for non-Gaussian variables. We propose a data-driven systematic framework to readily generate and evaluate ellipsoidal prediction regions, with predefined...... probability guarantees and minimum conservativeness. A skill score is proposed for quantitative assessment of the quality of prediction ellipsoids. A set of experiments is used to illustrate the discrimination ability of the proposed scoring rule for potential misspecification of ellipsoidal prediction regions...

Does predictability matter? Effects of cue predictability on neurocognitive mechanisms underlying Prospective Memory

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giorgia eCona

2015-04-01

Full Text Available Prospective memory (PM represents the ability to successfully realize intentions when the appropriate moment or cue occurs. In this study, we used event-related potentials (ERPs to explore the impact of cue predictability on the cognitive and neural mechanisms supporting PM. Participants performed an ongoing task and, simultaneously, had to remember to execute a pre-specified action when they encountered the PM cues. The occurrence of the PM cues was predictable (being signalled by a warning cue for some participants and was completely unpredictable for others. In the predictable cue condition, the behavioural and ERP correlates of strategic monitoring were observed mainly in the ongoing trials wherein the PM cue was expected. In the unpredictable cue condition they were instead shown throughout the whole PM block. This pattern of results suggests that, in the predictable cue condition, participants engaged monitoring only when subjected to a context wherein the PM cue was expected, and disengaged monitoring when the PM cue was not expected. Conversely, participants in the unpredictable cue condition distributed their resources for strategic monitoring in more continuous manner. The findings of this study support the most recent views – the ‘Dynamic Multiprocess Framework’ and the ‘Attention to Delayed Intention’ (AtoDI model – confirming that strategic monitoring is a flexible mechanism that is recruited mainly when a PM cue is expected and that may interact with bottom-up spontaneous processes.

Predicting Ground Illuminance

Science.gov (United States)

Lesniak, Michael V.; Tregoning, Brett D.; Hitchens, Alexandra E.

2015-01-01

Our Sun outputs 3.85 x 1026 W of radiation, of which roughly 37% is in the visible band. It is directly responsible for nearly all natural illuminance experienced on Earth's surface, either in the form of direct/refracted sunlight or in reflected light bouncing off the surfaces and/or atmospheres of our Moon and the visible planets. Ground illuminance, defined as the amount of visible light intercepting a unit area of surface (from all incident angles), varies over 7 orders of magnitude from day to night. It is highly dependent on well-modeled factors such as the relative positions of the Sun, Earth, and Moon. It is also dependent on less predictable factors such as local atmospheric conditions and weather.Several models have been proposed to predict ground illuminance, including Brown (1952) and Shapiro (1982, 1987). The Brown model is a set of empirical data collected from observation points around the world that has been reduced to a smooth fit of illuminance against a single variable, solar altitude. It provides limited applicability to the Moon and for cloudy conditions via multiplicative reduction factors. The Shapiro model is a theoretical model that treats the atmosphere as a three layer system of light reflectance and transmittance. It has different sets of reflectance and transmittance coefficients for various cloud types.In this paper we compare the models' predictions to ground illuminance data from an observing run at the White Sands missile range (data was obtained from the United Kingdom's Meteorology Office). Continuous illuminance readings were recorded under various cloud conditions, during both daytime and nighttime hours. We find that under clear skies, the Shapiro model tends to better fit the observations during daytime hours with typical discrepancies under 10%. Under cloudy skies, both models tend to poorly predict ground illuminance. However, the Shapiro model, with typical average daytime discrepancies of 25% or less in many cases

Prediction of critical heat flux using ANFIS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zaferanlouei, Salman, E-mail: zaferanlouei@gmail.co [Nuclear Engineering and Physics Department, Faculty of Nuclear Engineering, Center of Excellence in Nuclear Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), 424 Hafez Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of); Rostamifard, Dariush; Setayeshi, Saeed [Nuclear Engineering and Physics Department, Faculty of Nuclear Engineering, Center of Excellence in Nuclear Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology (Tehran Polytechnic), 424 Hafez Avenue, Tehran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)

2010-06-15

The prediction of Critical Heat Flux (CHF) is essential for water cooled nuclear reactors since it is an important parameter for the economic efficiency and safety of nuclear power plants. Therefore, in this study using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a new flexible tool is developed to predict CHF. The process of training and testing in this model is done by using a set of available published field data. The CHF values predicted by the ANFIS model are acceptable compared with the other prediction methods. We improve the ANN model that is proposed by to avoid overfitting. The obtained new ANN test errors are compared with ANFIS model test errors, subsequently. It is found that the ANFIS model with root mean square (RMS) test errors of 4.79%, 5.04% and 11.39%, in fixed inlet conditions and local conditions and fixed outlet conditions, respectively, has superior performance in predicting the CHF than the test error obtained from MLP Neural Network in fixed inlet and outlet conditions, however, ANFIS also has acceptable result to predict CHF in fixed local conditions.

Prediction of critical heat flux using ANFIS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zaferanlouei, Salman; Rostamifard, Dariush; Setayeshi, Saeed

2010-01-01

The prediction of Critical Heat Flux (CHF) is essential for water cooled nuclear reactors since it is an important parameter for the economic efficiency and safety of nuclear power plants. Therefore, in this study using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), a new flexible tool is developed to predict CHF. The process of training and testing in this model is done by using a set of available published field data. The CHF values predicted by the ANFIS model are acceptable compared with the other prediction methods. We improve the ANN model that is proposed by to avoid overfitting. The obtained new ANN test errors are compared with ANFIS model test errors, subsequently. It is found that the ANFIS model with root mean square (RMS) test errors of 4.79%, 5.04% and 11.39%, in fixed inlet conditions and local conditions and fixed outlet conditions, respectively, has superior performance in predicting the CHF than the test error obtained from MLP Neural Network in fixed inlet and outlet conditions, however, ANFIS also has acceptable result to predict CHF in fixed local conditions.

Seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation

Science.gov (United States)

Vellinga, Michael; Scaife, Adam

2015-04-01

Until recently, long-range forecast systems showed only modest levels of skill in predicting surface winter climate around the Atlantic Basin and associated fluctuations in the North Atlantic Oscillation at seasonal lead times. Here we use a new forecast system to assess seasonal predictability of winter North Atlantic climate. We demonstrate that key aspects of European and North American winter climate and the surface North Atlantic Oscillation are highly predictable months ahead. We demonstrate high levels of prediction skill in retrospective forecasts of the surface North Atlantic Oscillation, winter storminess, near-surface temperature, and wind speed, all of which have high value for planning and adaptation to extreme winter conditions. Analysis of forecast ensembles suggests that while useful levels of seasonal forecast skill have now been achieved, key sources of predictability are still only partially represented and there is further untapped predictability. This work is distributed under the Creative Commons Attribution 3.0 Unported License together with an author copyright. This license does not conflict with the regulations of the Crown Copyright.

Neural networks to predict exosphere temperature corrections

Science.gov (United States)

Choury, Anna; Bruinsma, Sean; Schaeffer, Philippe

2013-10-01

Precise orbit prediction requires a forecast of the atmospheric drag force with a high degree of accuracy. Artificial neural networks are universal approximators derived from artificial intelligence and are widely used for prediction. This paper presents a method of artificial neural networking for prediction of the thermosphere density by forecasting exospheric temperature, which will be used by the semiempirical thermosphere Drag Temperature Model (DTM) currently developed. Artificial neural network has shown to be an effective and robust forecasting model for temperature prediction. The proposed model can be used for any mission from which temperature can be deduced accurately, i.e., it does not require specific training. Although the primary goal of the study was to create a model for 1 day ahead forecast, the proposed architecture has been generalized to 2 and 3 days prediction as well. The impact of artificial neural network predictions has been quantified for the low-orbiting satellite Gravity Field and Steady-State Ocean Circulation Explorer in 2011, and an order of magnitude smaller orbit errors were found when compared with orbits propagated using the thermosphere model DTM2009.

Predicting Persuasion-Induced Behavior Change from the Brain

Science.gov (United States)

Falk, Emily B.; Berkman, Elliot T.; Mann, Traci; Harrison, Brittany; Lieberman, Matthew D.

2011-01-01

Although persuasive messages often alter people’s self-reported attitudes and intentions to perform behaviors, these self-reports do not necessarily predict behavior change. We demonstrate that neural responses to persuasive messages can predict variability in behavior change in the subsequent week. Specifically, an a priori region of interest (ROI) in medial prefrontal cortex (MPFC) was reliably associated with behavior change (r = 0.49, p < 0.05). Additionally, an iterative cross-validation approach using activity in this MPFC ROI predicted an average 23% of the variance in behavior change beyond the variance predicted by self-reported attitudes and intentions. Thus, neural signals can predict behavioral changes that are not predicted from self-reported attitudes and intentions alone. Additionally, this is the first functional magnetic resonance imaging study to demonstrate that a neural signal can predict complex real world behavior days in advance. PMID:20573889

Geostatistical enhancement of european hydrological predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Pugliese, Alessio; Castellarin, Attilio; Parajka, Juraj; Arheimer, Berit; Bagli, Stefano; Mazzoli, Paolo; Montanari, Alberto; Blöschl, Günter

2016-04-01

Geostatistical Enhancement of European Hydrological Prediction (GEEHP) is a research experiment developed within the EU funded SWITCH-ON project, which proposes to conduct comparative experiments in a virtual laboratory in order to share water-related information and tackle changes in the hydrosphere for operational needs (http://www.water-switch-on.eu). The main objective of GEEHP deals with the prediction of streamflow indices and signatures in ungauged basins at different spatial scales. In particular, among several possible hydrological signatures we focus in our experiment on the prediction of flow-duration curves (FDCs) along the stream-network, which has attracted an increasing scientific attention in the last decades due to the large number of practical and technical applications of the curves (e.g. hydropower potential estimation, riverine habitat suitability and ecological assessments, etc.). We apply a geostatistical procedure based on Top-kriging, which has been recently shown to be particularly reliable and easy-to-use regionalization approach, employing two different type of streamflow data: pan-European E-HYPE simulations (http://hypeweb.smhi.se/europehype) and observed daily streamflow series collected in two pilot study regions, i.e. Tyrol (merging data from Austrian and Italian stream gauging networks) and Sweden. The merger of the two study regions results in a rather large area (~450000 km2) and might be considered as a proxy for a pan-European application of the approach. In a first phase, we implement a bidirectional validation, i.e. E-HYPE catchments are set as training sites to predict FDCs at the same sites where observed data are available, and vice-versa. Such a validation procedure reveals (1) the usability of the proposed approach for predicting the FDCs over the entire river network of interest using alternatively observed data and E-HYPE simulations and (2) the accuracy of E-HYPE-based predictions of FDCs in ungauged sites. In a

Text mining improves prediction of protein functional sites.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karin M Verspoor

Full Text Available We present an approach that integrates protein structure analysis and text mining for protein functional site prediction, called LEAP-FS (Literature Enhanced Automated Prediction of Functional Sites. The structure analysis was carried out using Dynamics Perturbation Analysis (DPA, which predicts functional sites at control points where interactions greatly perturb protein vibrations. The text mining extracts mentions of residues in the literature, and predicts that residues mentioned are functionally important. We assessed the significance of each of these methods by analyzing their performance in finding known functional sites (specifically, small-molecule binding sites and catalytic sites in about 100,000 publicly available protein structures. The DPA predictions recapitulated many of the functional site annotations and preferentially recovered binding sites annotated as biologically relevant vs. those annotated as potentially spurious. The text-based predictions were also substantially supported by the functional site annotations: compared to other residues, residues mentioned in text were roughly six times more likely to be found in a functional site. The overlap of predictions with annotations improved when the text-based and structure-based methods agreed. Our analysis also yielded new high-quality predictions of many functional site residues that were not catalogued in the curated data sources we inspected. We conclude that both DPA and text mining independently provide valuable high-throughput protein functional site predictions, and that integrating the two methods using LEAP-FS further improves the quality of these predictions.

Text Mining Improves Prediction of Protein Functional Sites

Science.gov (United States)

Cohn, Judith D.; Ravikumar, Komandur E.

2012-01-01

We present an approach that integrates protein structure analysis and text mining for protein functional site prediction, called LEAP-FS (Literature Enhanced Automated Prediction of Functional Sites). The structure analysis was carried out using Dynamics Perturbation Analysis (DPA), which predicts functional sites at control points where interactions greatly perturb protein vibrations. The text mining extracts mentions of residues in the literature, and predicts that residues mentioned are functionally important. We assessed the significance of each of these methods by analyzing their performance in finding known functional sites (specifically, small-molecule binding sites and catalytic sites) in about 100,000 publicly available protein structures. The DPA predictions recapitulated many of the functional site annotations and preferentially recovered binding sites annotated as biologically relevant vs. those annotated as potentially spurious. The text-based predictions were also substantially supported by the functional site annotations: compared to other residues, residues mentioned in text were roughly six times more likely to be found in a functional site. The overlap of predictions with annotations improved when the text-based and structure-based methods agreed. Our analysis also yielded new high-quality predictions of many functional site residues that were not catalogued in the curated data sources we inspected. We conclude that both DPA and text mining independently provide valuable high-throughput protein functional site predictions, and that integrating the two methods using LEAP-FS further improves the quality of these predictions. PMID:22393388

Concise Review: Multifaceted Characterization of Human Mesenchymal Stem Cells for Use in Regenerative Medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Samsonraj, Rebekah M; Raghunath, Michael; Nurcombe, Victor; Hui, James H; van Wijnen, Andre J; Cool, Simon M

2017-12-01

Mesenchymal stem cells (MSC) hold great potential for regenerative medicine because of their ability for self-renewal and differentiation into tissue-specific cells such as osteoblasts, chondrocytes, and adipocytes. MSCs orchestrate tissue development, maintenance and repair, and are useful for musculoskeletal regenerative therapies to treat age-related orthopedic degenerative diseases and other clinical conditions. Importantly, MSCs produce secretory factors that play critical roles in tissue repair that support both engraftment and trophic functions (autocrine and paracrine). The development of uniform protocols for both preparation and characterization of MSCs, including standardized functional assays for evaluation of their biological potential, are critical factors contributing to their clinical utility. Quality control and release criteria for MSCs should include cell surface markers, differentiation potential, and other essential cell parameters. For example, cell surface marker profiles (surfactome), bone-forming capacities in ectopic and orthotopic models, as well as cell size and granularity, telomere length, senescence status, trophic factor secretion (secretome), and immunomodulation, should be thoroughly assessed to predict MSC utility for regenerative medicine. We propose that these and other functionalities of MSCs should be characterized prior to use in clinical applications as part of comprehensive and uniform guidelines and release criteria for their clinical-grade production to achieve predictably favorable treatment outcomes for stem cell therapy. Stem Cells Translational Medicine 2017;6:2173-2185. © 2017 The Authors Stem Cells Translational Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of AlphaMed Press.

Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Mark A; Tamir, Diana I

2017-06-06

Successful social interactions depend on people's ability to predict others' future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others' current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others' future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others' emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others' future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1-3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants' ratings of emotion transitions predicted others' experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation-valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind-inform participants' mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants' accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone.

Mental models accurately predict emotion transitions

Science.gov (United States)

Thornton, Mark A.; Tamir, Diana I.

2017-01-01

Successful social interactions depend on people’s ability to predict others’ future actions and emotions. People possess many mechanisms for perceiving others’ current emotional states, but how might they use this information to predict others’ future states? We hypothesized that people might capitalize on an overlooked aspect of affective experience: current emotions predict future emotions. By attending to regularities in emotion transitions, perceivers might develop accurate mental models of others’ emotional dynamics. People could then use these mental models of emotion transitions to predict others’ future emotions from currently observable emotions. To test this hypothesis, studies 1–3 used data from three extant experience-sampling datasets to establish the actual rates of emotional transitions. We then collected three parallel datasets in which participants rated the transition likelihoods between the same set of emotions. Participants’ ratings of emotion transitions predicted others’ experienced transitional likelihoods with high accuracy. Study 4 demonstrated that four conceptual dimensions of mental state representation—valence, social impact, rationality, and human mind—inform participants’ mental models. Study 5 used 2 million emotion reports on the Experience Project to replicate both of these findings: again people reported accurate models of emotion transitions, and these models were informed by the same four conceptual dimensions. Importantly, neither these conceptual dimensions nor holistic similarity could fully explain participants’ accuracy, suggesting that their mental models contain accurate information about emotion dynamics above and beyond what might be predicted by static emotion knowledge alone. PMID:28533373