On the relationship between micro and macro correlations in nuclear measurement uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, D.L.

1987-01-01

Consideration is given to the propagation of micro correlations between the component experimental errors (corresponding to diverse attributes of the measurement process) through to the macro correlations between the total errors in the final derived experimental values. Whenever certain micro correlations cannot be precisely specified, the macro correlations must also be uncertain. However, on the basis of fundamental principles from mathematical statistics, it is shown that these uncertainties in the macro correlations can be substantially smaller than the individual uncertainties for specific micro correlations, provided that the number of distinct attributes contributing to the total experimental error is reasonably large. Furthermore, the resulting macro correlations are shown to be approximately normally distributed regardless of teh distributions assumed for the micro correlations. Examples are provided to demonstrate these concepts and to illustrate their relevance to experimental nuclear research. (orig.)

Uncertainty estimation of ultrasonic thickness measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yassir Yassen, Abdul Razak Daud; Mohammad Pauzi Ismail; Abdul Aziz Jemain

2009-01-01

The most important factor that should be taken into consideration when selecting ultrasonic thickness measurement technique is its reliability. Only when the uncertainty of a measurement results is known, it may be judged if the result is adequate for intended purpose. The objective of this study is to model the ultrasonic thickness measurement function, to identify the most contributing input uncertainty components, and to estimate the uncertainty of the ultrasonic thickness measurement results. We assumed that there are five error sources significantly contribute to the final error, these sources are calibration velocity, transit time, zero offset, measurement repeatability and resolution, by applying the propagation of uncertainty law to the model function, a combined uncertainty of the ultrasonic thickness measurement was obtained. In this study the modeling function of ultrasonic thickness measurement was derived. By using this model the estimation of the uncertainty of the final output result was found to be reliable. It was also found that the most contributing input uncertainty components are calibration velocity, transit time linearity and zero offset. (author)

A new uncertainty importance measure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borgonovo, E.

2007-01-01

Uncertainty in parameters is present in many risk assessment problems and leads to uncertainty in model predictions. In this work, we introduce a global sensitivity indicator which looks at the influence of input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to a specific moment of the output (moment independence) and which can be defined also in the presence of correlations among the parameters. We discuss its mathematical properties and highlight the differences between the present indicator, variance-based uncertainty importance measures and a moment independent sensitivity indicator previously introduced in the literature. Numerical results are discussed with application to the probabilistic risk assessment model on which Iman [A matrix-based approach to uncertainty and sensitivity analysis for fault trees. Risk Anal 1987;7(1):22-33] first introduced uncertainty importance measures

Propagation of dynamic measurement uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hessling, J P

2011-01-01

The time-dependent measurement uncertainty has been evaluated in a number of recent publications, starting from a known uncertain dynamic model. This could be defined as the 'downward' propagation of uncertainty from the model to the targeted measurement. The propagation of uncertainty 'upward' from the calibration experiment to a dynamic model traditionally belongs to system identification. The use of different representations (time, frequency, etc) is ubiquitous in dynamic measurement analyses. An expression of uncertainty in dynamic measurements is formulated for the first time in this paper independent of representation, joining upward as well as downward propagation. For applications in metrology, the high quality of the characterization may be prohibitive for any reasonably large and robust model to pass the whiteness test. This test is therefore relaxed by not directly requiring small systematic model errors in comparison to the randomness of the characterization. Instead, the systematic error of the dynamic model is propagated to the uncertainty of the measurand, analogously but differently to how stochastic contributions are propagated. The pass criterion of the model is thereby transferred from the identification to acceptance of the total accumulated uncertainty of the measurand. This increases the relevance of the test of the model as it relates to its final use rather than the quality of the calibration. The propagation of uncertainty hence includes the propagation of systematic model errors. For illustration, the 'upward' propagation of uncertainty is applied to determine if an appliance box is damaged in an earthquake experiment. In this case, relaxation of the whiteness test was required to reach a conclusive result

Ruminations On NDA Measurement Uncertainty Compared TO DA Uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-01-01

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

RUMINATIONS ON NDA MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY COMPARED TO DA UNCERTAINTY

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Salaymeh, S.; Ashley, W.; Jeffcoat, R.

2010-06-17

It is difficult to overestimate the importance that physical measurements performed with nondestructive assay instruments play throughout the nuclear fuel cycle. They underpin decision making in many areas and support: criticality safety, radiation protection, process control, safeguards, facility compliance, and waste measurements. No physical measurement is complete or indeed meaningful, without a defensible and appropriate accompanying statement of uncertainties and how they combine to define the confidence in the results. The uncertainty budget should also be broken down in sufficient detail suitable for subsequent uses to which the nondestructive assay (NDA) results will be applied. Creating an uncertainty budget and estimating the total measurement uncertainty can often be an involved process, especially for non routine situations. This is because data interpretation often involves complex algorithms and logic combined in a highly intertwined way. The methods often call on a multitude of input data subject to human oversight. These characteristics can be confusing and pose a barrier to developing and understanding between experts and data consumers. ASTM subcommittee C26-10 recognized this problem in the context of how to summarize and express precision and bias performance across the range of standards and guides it maintains. In order to create a unified approach consistent with modern practice and embracing the continuous improvement philosophy a consensus arose to prepare a procedure covering the estimation and reporting of uncertainties in non destructive assay of nuclear materials. This paper outlines the needs analysis, objectives and on-going development efforts. In addition to emphasizing some of the unique challenges and opportunities facing the NDA community we hope this article will encourage dialog and sharing of best practice and furthermore motivate developers to revisit the treatment of measurement uncertainty.

The Uncertainty of Measurement Results

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ambrus, A. [Hungarian Food Safety Office, Budapest (Hungary)

2009-07-15

Factors affecting the uncertainty of measurement are explained, basic statistical formulae given, and the theoretical concept explained in the context of pesticide formulation analysis. Practical guidance is provided on how to determine individual uncertainty components within an analytical procedure. An extended and comprehensive table containing the relevant mathematical/statistical expressions elucidates the relevant underlying principles. Appendix I provides a practical elaborated example on measurement uncertainty estimation, above all utilizing experimental repeatability and reproducibility laboratory data. (author)

Multi-attribute evaluation and choice of alternatives for surplus weapons-usable plutonium disposition at uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kosterev, V.V.; Bolyatko, V.V.; Khajretdinov, S.I.; Averkin, A.N.

2014-01-01

The problem of surplus weapons-usable plutonium disposition is formalized as a multi-attribute problem of a choice of alternatives from a set of possible alternatives under fuzzy conditions. Evaluation and ordering of alternatives for the surplus weapons-usable plutonium disposition and sensitivity analysis are carried out at uncertainty [ru

Managing Measurement Uncertainty in Building Acoustics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chiara Scrosati

2015-12-01

Full Text Available In general, uncertainties should preferably be determined following the principles laid down in ISO/IEC Guide 98-3, the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM:1995. According to current knowledge, it seems impossible to formulate these models for the different quantities in building acoustics. Therefore, the concepts of repeatability and reproducibility are necessary to determine the uncertainty of building acoustics measurements. This study shows the uncertainty of field measurements of a lightweight wall, a heavyweight floor, a façade with a single glazing window and a façade with double glazing window that were analyzed by a Round Robin Test (RRT, conducted in a full-scale experimental building at ITC-CNR (Construction Technologies Institute of the National Research Council of Italy. The single number quantities and their uncertainties were evaluated in both narrow and enlarged range and it was shown that including or excluding the low frequencies leads to very significant differences, except in the case of the sound insulation of façades with single glazing window. The results obtained in these RRTs were compared with other results from literature, which confirm the increase of the uncertainty of single number quantities due to the low frequencies extension. Having stated the measurement uncertainty for a single measurement, in building acoustics, it is also very important to deal with sampling for the purposes of classification of buildings or building units. Therefore, this study also shows an application of the sampling included in the Italian Standard on the acoustic classification of building units on a serial type building consisting of 47 building units. It was found that the greatest variability is observed in the façade and it depends on both the great variability of window’s typologies and on workmanship. Finally, it is suggested how to manage the uncertainty in building acoustics, both for one single

Measurement uncertainty in broadband radiofrequency radiation level measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vulević Branislav D.

2014-01-01

Full Text Available For the evaluation of measurement uncertainty in the measurement of broadband radio frequency radiation, in this paper we propose a new approach based on the experience of the authors of the paper with measurements of radiofrequency electric field levels conducted in residential areas of Belgrade and over 35 municipalities in Serbia. The main objective of the paper is to present practical solutions in the evaluation of broadband measurement uncertainty for the in-situ RF radiation levels. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. III43009

Measurement Errors and Uncertainties Theory and Practice

CERN Document Server

Rabinovich, Semyon G

2006-01-01

Measurement Errors and Uncertainties addresses the most important problems that physicists and engineers encounter when estimating errors and uncertainty. Building from the fundamentals of measurement theory, the author develops the theory of accuracy of measurements and offers a wealth of practical recommendations and examples of applications. This new edition covers a wide range of subjects, including: - Basic concepts of metrology - Measuring instruments characterization, standardization and calibration -Estimation of errors and uncertainty of single and multiple measurements - Modern probability-based methods of estimating measurement uncertainty With this new edition, the author completes the development of the new theory of indirect measurements. This theory provides more accurate and efficient methods for processing indirect measurement data. It eliminates the need to calculate the correlation coefficient - a stumbling block in measurement data processing - and offers for the first time a way to obtain...

Measuring uncertainty within the theory of evidence

CERN Document Server

Salicone, Simona

2018-01-01

This monograph considers the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty within the mathematical framework of the Theory of Evidence. With a new perspective on the metrology science, the text paves the way for innovative applications in a wide range of areas. Building on Simona Salicone’s Measurement Uncertainty: An Approach via the Mathematical Theory of Evidence, the material covers further developments of the Random Fuzzy Variable (RFV) approach to uncertainty and provides a more robust mathematical and metrological background to the combination of measurement results that leads to a more effective RFV combination method. While the first part of the book introduces measurement uncertainty, the Theory of Evidence, and fuzzy sets, the following parts bring together these concepts and derive an effective methodology for the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty. A supplementary downloadable program allows the readers to interact with the proposed approach by generating and combining ...

The state of the art of the impact of sampling uncertainty on measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Leite, V. J.; Oliveira, E. C.

2018-03-01

The measurement uncertainty is a parameter that marks the reliability and can be divided into two large groups: sampling and analytical variations. Analytical uncertainty is a controlled process, performed in the laboratory. The same does not occur with the sampling uncertainty, which, because it faces several obstacles and there is no clarity on how to perform the procedures, has been neglected, although it is admittedly indispensable to the measurement process. This paper aims at describing the state of the art of sampling uncertainty and at assessing its relevance to measurement uncertainty.

Determination of Formula for Vickers Hardness Measurements Uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Purba, Asli

2007-01-01

The purpose of formula determination is to obtain the formula of Vickers hardness measurements uncertainty. The approach to determine the formula: influenced parameters identification, creating a cause and effect diagram, determination of sensitivity, determination of standard uncertainty and determination of formula for Vickers hardness measurements uncertainty. The results is a formula for determination of Vickers hardness measurements uncertainty. (author)

THE UNCERTAINTIES OF ENVIRONMENT'S PARAMETERS MEASUREMENTS AS TOLLS OF THE MEASUREMENTS QUALITY IMPROVEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miroslav Badida

2008-06-01

Full Text Available Identification of the noise measuring uncertainties by declared measured values is unconditionally necessary and required by legislative. Uncertainty of the measurements expresses all errors that accrue during the measuring. B y indication of uncertainties the measure documents that the objective value is with certain probability found in the interval that is bounded by the measurement uncertainty. The paper deals with the methodology of the uncertainty calculation by noise measurements in living and working environments. metal processing industry and building materials industry.

Uncertainty In Measuring Noise Parameters Of a Communication Receiver

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korcz, Karol; Palczynska, Beata; Spiralski, Ludwik

2005-01-01

The paper presents the method of assessing uncertainty in measuring the usable sensitivity Es of communication receiver. The influence of partial uncertainties of measuring the noise factor F and the energy pass band of the receiver Δf on the combined standard uncertainty level is analyzed. The method to assess the uncertainty in measuring the noise factor on the basis of the systematic component of uncertainty, assuming that the main source of measurement uncertainty is the hardware of the measuring system, is proposed. The assessment of uncertainty in measuring the pass band of the receiver is determined with the assumption that input quantities of the measurement equation are not correlated. They are successive, discrete values of the spectral power density of the noise on the output of receiver. The results of the analyses of particular uncertainties components of measuring the sensitivity, which were carried out for a typical communication receiver, are presented

Dynamical attribution of oceanic prediction uncertainty in the North Atlantic: application to the design of optimal monitoring systems

Science.gov (United States)

Sévellec, Florian; Dijkstra, Henk A.; Drijfhout, Sybren S.; Germe, Agathe

2017-11-01

In this study, the relation between two approaches to assess the ocean predictability on interannual to decadal time scales is investigated. The first pragmatic approach consists of sampling the initial condition uncertainty and assess the predictability through the divergence of this ensemble in time. The second approach is provided by a theoretical framework to determine error growth by estimating optimal linear growing modes. In this paper, it is shown that under the assumption of linearized dynamics and normal distributions of the uncertainty, the exact quantitative spread of ensemble can be determined from the theoretical framework. This spread is at least an order of magnitude less expensive to compute than the approximate solution given by the pragmatic approach. This result is applied to a state-of-the-art Ocean General Circulation Model to assess the predictability in the North Atlantic of four typical oceanic metrics: the strength of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC), the intensity of its heat transport, the two-dimensional spatially-averaged Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over the North Atlantic, and the three-dimensional spatially-averaged temperature in the North Atlantic. For all tested metrics, except for SST, ˜ 75% of the total uncertainty on interannual time scales can be attributed to oceanic initial condition uncertainty rather than atmospheric stochastic forcing. The theoretical method also provide the sensitivity pattern to the initial condition uncertainty, allowing for targeted measurements to improve the skill of the prediction. It is suggested that a relatively small fleet of several autonomous underwater vehicles can reduce the uncertainty in AMOC strength prediction by 70% for 1-5 years lead times.

Uncertainty in Measurement: Procedures for Determining Uncertainty With Application to Clinical Laboratory Calculations.

Science.gov (United States)

Frenkel, Robert B; Farrance, Ian

2018-01-01

The "Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement" (GUM) is the foundational document of metrology. Its recommendations apply to all areas of metrology including metrology associated with the biomedical sciences. When the output of a measurement process depends on the measurement of several inputs through a measurement equation or functional relationship, the propagation of uncertainties in the inputs to the uncertainty in the output demands a level of understanding of the differential calculus. This review is intended as an elementary guide to the differential calculus and its application to uncertainty in measurement. The review is in two parts. In Part I, Section 3, we consider the case of a single input and introduce the concepts of error and uncertainty. Next we discuss, in the following sections in Part I, such notions as derivatives and differentials, and the sensitivity of an output to errors in the input. The derivatives of functions are obtained using very elementary mathematics. The overall purpose of this review, here in Part I and subsequently in Part II, is to present the differential calculus for those in the medical sciences who wish to gain a quick but accurate understanding of the propagation of uncertainties. © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Ted; Hepburn, Jonathan

2003-06-01

Causal uncertainty beliefs involve doubts about the causes of events, and arise as a consequence of non-contingent evaluative feedback: feedback that leaves the individual uncertain about the causes of his or her achievement outcomes. Individuals high in causal uncertainty are frequently unable to confidently attribute their achievement outcomes, experience anxiety in achievement situations and as a consequence are likely to engage in self-handicapping behaviour. Accordingly, we sought to establish links between trait causal uncertainty, claimed and behavioural self-handicapping. Participants were N=72 undergraduate students divided equally between high and low causally uncertain groups. We used a 2 (causal uncertainty status: high, low) x 3 (performance feedback condition: success, non-contingent success, non-contingent failure) between-subjects factorial design to examine the effects of causal uncertainty on achievement behaviour. Following performance feedback, participants completed 20 single-solution anagrams and 12 remote associate tasks serving as performance measures, and 16 unicursal tasks to assess practice effort. Participants also completed measures of claimed handicaps, state anxiety and attributions. Relative to low causally uncertain participants, high causally uncertain participants claimed more handicaps prior to performance on the anagrams and remote associates, reported higher anxiety, attributed their failure to internal, stable factors, and reduced practice effort on the unicursal tasks, evident in fewer unicursal tasks solved. These findings confirm links between trait causal uncertainty and claimed and behavioural self-handicapping, highlighting the need for educators to facilitate means by which students can achieve surety in the manner in which they attribute the causes of their achievement outcomes.

Evaluating measurement uncertainty in fluid phase equilibrium calculations

Science.gov (United States)

van der Veen, Adriaan M. H.

2018-04-01

The evaluation of measurement uncertainty in accordance with the ‘Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement’ (GUM) has not yet become widespread in physical chemistry. With only the law of the propagation of uncertainty from the GUM, many of these uncertainty evaluations would be cumbersome, as models are often non-linear and require iterative calculations. The methods from GUM supplements 1 and 2 enable the propagation of uncertainties under most circumstances. Experimental data in physical chemistry are used, for example, to derive reference property data and support trade—all applications where measurement uncertainty plays an important role. This paper aims to outline how the methods for evaluating and propagating uncertainty can be applied to some specific cases with a wide impact: deriving reference data from vapour pressure data, a flash calculation, and the use of an equation-of-state to predict the properties of both phases in a vapour-liquid equilibrium. The three uncertainty evaluations demonstrate that the methods of GUM and its supplements are a versatile toolbox that enable us to evaluate the measurement uncertainty of physical chemical measurements, including the derivation of reference data, such as the equilibrium thermodynamical properties of fluids.

Estimate of the uncertainty in measurement for the determination of mercury in seafood by TDA AAS.

Science.gov (United States)

Torres, Daiane Placido; Olivares, Igor R B; Queiroz, Helena Müller

2015-01-01

An approach for the estimate of the uncertainty in measurement considering the individual sources related to the different steps of the method under evaluation as well as the uncertainties estimated from the validation data for the determination of mercury in seafood by using thermal decomposition/amalgamation atomic absorption spectrometry (TDA AAS) is proposed. The considered method has been fully optimized and validated in an official laboratory of the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply of Brazil, in order to comply with national and international food regulations and quality assurance. The referred method has been accredited under the ISO/IEC 17025 norm since 2010. The approach of the present work in order to reach the aim of estimating of the uncertainty in measurement was based on six sources of uncertainty for mercury determination in seafood by TDA AAS, following the validation process, which were: Linear least square regression, Repeatability, Intermediate precision, Correction factor of the analytical curve, Sample mass, and Standard reference solution. Those that most influenced the uncertainty in measurement were sample weight, repeatability, intermediate precision and calibration curve. The obtained result for the estimate of uncertainty in measurement in the present work reached a value of 13.39%, which complies with the European Regulation EC 836/2011. This figure represents a very realistic estimate of the routine conditions, since it fairly encompasses the dispersion obtained from the value attributed to the sample and the value measured by the laboratory analysts. From this outcome, it is possible to infer that the validation data (based on calibration curve, recovery and precision), together with the variation on sample mass, can offer a proper estimate of uncertainty in measurement.

Radon measurements: the sources of uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhukovsky, Michael; Onischenko, Alexandra; Bastrikov, Vladislav

2008-01-01

Full text: Radon measurements are quite complicated process and the correct estimation of uncertainties is very important. The sources of uncertainties for grab sampling, short term measurements (charcoal canisters), long term measurements (track detectors) and retrospective measurements (surface traps) are analyzed. The main sources of uncertainties for grab sampling measurements are: systematic bias of reference equipment; random Poisson and non-Poisson errors during calibration; random Poisson and non-Poisson errors during measurements. These sources are also common both for short term measurements (charcoal canisters) and long term measurements (track detectors). Usually during the calibration the high radon concentrations are used (1-5 kBq/m 3 ) and the Poisson random error rarely exceed some percents. Nevertheless the dispersion of measured values even during the calibration usually exceeds the Poisson dispersion expected on the basis of counting statistic. The origins of such non-Poisson random errors during calibration are different for different kinds of instrumental measurements. At present not all sources of non-Poisson random errors are trustworthy identified. The initial calibration accuracy of working devices rarely exceeds the value 20%. The real radon concentrations usually are in the range from some tens to some hundreds Becquerel per cubic meter and for low radon levels Poisson random error can reach up to 20%. The random non-Poisson errors and residual systematic biases are depends on the kind of measurement technique and the environmental conditions during radon measurements. For charcoal canisters there are additional sources of the measurement errors due to influence of air humidity and the variations of radon concentration during the canister exposure. The accuracy of long term measurements by track detectors will depend on the quality of chemical etching after exposure and the influence of season radon variations. The main sources of

A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campos, E [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Sisterson, Douglas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2016-12-01

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed. Note that some of the instrument observations require mathematical algorithms (retrievals) to convert a measured engineering variable into a useful geophysical measurement. While those types of retrieval measurements are identified, this study does not address particular methods for retrieval uncertainty. As well, the ARM Facility also provides engineered data products, or value-added products (VAPs), based on multiple instrument measurements. This study does not include uncertainty estimates for those data products. We propose here that a total measurement uncertainty should be calculated as a function of the instrument uncertainty (calibration factors), the field uncertainty (environmental factors), and the retrieval uncertainty (algorithm factors). The study will not expand on methods for computing these uncertainties. Instead, it will focus on the practical identification, characterization, and inventory of the measurement uncertainties already available in the ARM community through the ARM instrument mentors and their ARM instrument handbooks. As a result, this study will address the first steps towards reporting ARM measurement uncertainty

Quantifying uncertainty in nuclear analytical measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2004-07-01

The lack of international consensus on the expression of uncertainty in measurements was recognised by the late 1970s and led, after the issuance of a series of rather generic recommendations, to the publication of a general publication, known as GUM, the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement. This publication, issued in 1993, was based on co-operation over several years by the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures, the International Electrotechnical Commission, the International Federation of Clinical Chemistry, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO), the International Union of Pure and Applied Chemistry, the International Union of Pure and Applied Physics and the Organisation internationale de metrologie legale. The purpose was to promote full information on how uncertainty statements are arrived at and to provide a basis for harmonized reporting and the international comparison of measurement results. The need to provide more specific guidance to different measurement disciplines was soon recognized and the field of analytical chemistry was addressed by EURACHEM in 1995 in the first edition of a guidance report on Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurements, produced by a group of experts from the field. That publication translated the general concepts of the GUM into specific applications for analytical laboratories and illustrated the principles with a series of selected examples as a didactic tool. Based on feedback from the actual practice, the EURACHEM publication was extensively reviewed in 1997-1999 under the auspices of the Co-operation on International Traceability in Analytical Chemistry (CITAC), and a second edition was published in 2000. Still, except for a single example on the measurement of radioactivity in GUM, the field of nuclear and radiochemical measurements was not covered. The explicit requirement of ISO standard 17025:1999, General Requirements for the Competence of Testing and Calibration

Strain gauge measurement uncertainties on hydraulic turbine runner blade

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arpin-Pont, J; Gagnon, M; Tahan, S A; Coutu, A; Thibault, D

2012-01-01

Strains experimentally measured with strain gauges can differ from those evaluated using the Finite Element (FE) method. This difference is due mainly to the assumptions and uncertainties inherent to each method. To circumvent this difficulty, we developed a numerical method based on Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate measurement uncertainties produced by the behaviour of a unidirectional welded gauge, its position uncertainty and its integration effect. This numerical method uses the displacement fields of the studied part evaluated by an FE analysis. The paper presents a study case using in situ data measured on a hydraulic turbine runner. The FE analysis of the turbine runner blade was computed, and our numerical method used to evaluate uncertainties on strains measured at five locations with welded strain gauges. Then, measured strains and their uncertainty ranges are compared to the estimated strains. The uncertainty ranges obtained extended from 74 με to 165 με. Furthermore, the biases observed between the median of the uncertainty ranges and the FE strains varied from −36 to 36 με. Note that strain gauge measurement uncertainties depend mainly on displacement fields and gauge geometry.

Conclusions on measurement uncertainty in microbiology.

Science.gov (United States)

Forster, Lynne I

2009-01-01

Since its first issue in 1999, testing laboratories wishing to comply with all the requirements of ISO/IEC 17025 have been collecting data for estimating uncertainty of measurement for quantitative determinations. In the microbiological field of testing, some debate has arisen as to whether uncertainty needs to be estimated for each method performed in the laboratory for each type of sample matrix tested. Queries also arise concerning the estimation of uncertainty when plate/membrane filter colony counts are below recommended method counting range limits. A selection of water samples (with low to high contamination) was tested in replicate with the associated uncertainty of measurement being estimated from the analytical results obtained. The analyses performed on the water samples included total coliforms, fecal coliforms, fecal streptococci by membrane filtration, and heterotrophic plate counts by the pour plate technique. For those samples where plate/membrane filter colony counts were > or =20, uncertainty estimates at a 95% confidence level were very similar for the methods, being estimated as 0.13, 0.14, 0.14, and 0.12, respectively. For those samples where plate/membrane filter colony counts were <20, estimated uncertainty values for each sample showed close agreement with published confidence limits established using a Poisson distribution approach.

Uncertainty in techno-economic estimates of cellulosic ethanol production due to experimental measurement uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vicari Kristin J

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Cost-effective production of lignocellulosic biofuels remains a major financial and technical challenge at the industrial scale. A critical tool in biofuels process development is the techno-economic (TE model, which calculates biofuel production costs using a process model and an economic model. The process model solves mass and energy balances for each unit, and the economic model estimates capital and operating costs from the process model based on economic assumptions. The process model inputs include experimental data on the feedstock composition and intermediate product yields for each unit. These experimental yield data are calculated from primary measurements. Uncertainty in these primary measurements is propagated to the calculated yields, to the process model, and ultimately to the economic model. Thus, outputs of the TE model have a minimum uncertainty associated with the uncertainty in the primary measurements. Results We calculate the uncertainty in the Minimum Ethanol Selling Price (MESP estimate for lignocellulosic ethanol production via a biochemical conversion process: dilute sulfuric acid pretreatment of corn stover followed by enzymatic hydrolysis and co-fermentation of the resulting sugars to ethanol. We perform a sensitivity analysis on the TE model and identify the feedstock composition and conversion yields from three unit operations (xylose from pretreatment, glucose from enzymatic hydrolysis, and ethanol from fermentation as the most important variables. The uncertainty in the pretreatment xylose yield arises from multiple measurements, whereas the glucose and ethanol yields from enzymatic hydrolysis and fermentation, respectively, are dominated by a single measurement: the fraction of insoluble solids (fIS in the biomass slurries. Conclusions We calculate a $0.15/gal uncertainty in MESP from the TE model due to uncertainties in primary measurements. This result sets a lower bound on the error bars of

Metrology and process control: dealing with measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Potzick, James

2010-03-01

Metrology is often used in designing and controlling manufacturing processes. A product sample is processed, some relevant property is measured, and the process adjusted to bring the next processed sample closer to its specification. This feedback loop can be remarkably effective for the complex processes used in semiconductor manufacturing, but there is some risk involved because measurements have uncertainty and product specifications have tolerances. There is finite risk that good product will fail testing or that faulty product will pass. Standard methods for quantifying measurement uncertainty have been presented, but the question arises: how much measurement uncertainty is tolerable in a specific case? Or, How does measurement uncertainty relate to manufacturing risk? This paper looks at some of the components inside this process control feedback loop and describes methods to answer these questions.

Methodology for the assessment of measuring uncertainties of articulated arm coordinate measuring machines

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Romdhani, Fekria; Hennebelle, François; Ge, Min; Juillion, Patrick; Fontaine, Jean François; Coquet, Richard

2014-01-01

Articulated Arm Coordinate Measuring Machines (AACMMs) have gradually evolved and are increasingly used in mechanical industry. At present, measurement uncertainties relating to the use of these devices are not yet well quantified. The work carried out consists of determining the measurement uncertainties of a mechanical part by an AACMM. The studies aiming to develop a model of measurement uncertainty are based on the Monte Carlo method developed in Supplement 1 of the Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement [1] but also identifying and characterizing the main sources of uncertainty. A multi-level Monte Carlo approach principle has been developed which allows for characterizing the possible evolution of the AACMM during the measurement and quantifying in a second level the uncertainty on the considered measurand. The first Monte Carlo level is the most complex and is thus divided into three sub-levels, namely characterization on the positioning error of a point, estimation of calibration errors and evaluation of fluctuations of the ‘localization point’. The global method is thus presented and results of the first sub-level are particularly developed. The main sources of uncertainty, including AACMM deformations, are exposed. (paper)

Not Normal: the uncertainties of scientific measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Bailey, David C.

2017-01-01

Judging the significance and reproducibility of quantitative research requires a good understanding of relevant uncertainties, but it is often unclear how well these have been evaluated and what they imply. Reported scientific uncertainties were studied by analysing 41 000 measurements of 3200 quantities from medicine, nuclear and particle physics, and interlaboratory comparisons ranging from chemistry to toxicology. Outliers are common, with 5σ disagreements up to five orders of magnitude more frequent than naively expected. Uncertainty-normalized differences between multiple measurements of the same quantity are consistent with heavy-tailed Student's t-distributions that are often almost Cauchy, far from a Gaussian Normal bell curve. Medical research uncertainties are generally as well evaluated as those in physics, but physics uncertainty improves more rapidly, making feasible simple significance criteria such as the 5σ discovery convention in particle physics. Contributions to measurement uncertainty from mistakes and unknown problems are not completely unpredictable. Such errors appear to have power-law distributions consistent with how designed complex systems fail, and how unknown systematic errors are constrained by researchers. This better understanding may help improve analysis and meta-analysis of data, and help scientists and the public have more realistic expectations of what scientific results imply.

GRAPH THEORY APPROACH TO QUANTIFY UNCERTAINTY OF PERFORMANCE MEASURES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sérgio D. Sousa

2015-03-01

Full Text Available In this work, the performance measurement process is studied to quantify the uncertainty induced in the resulting performance measure (PM. To that end, the causes of uncertainty are identified, analysing the activities undertaken in the three following stages of the performance measurement process: design and implementation, data collection and record, and determination and analysis. A quantitative methodology based on graph theory and on the sources of uncertainty of the performance measurement process is used to calculate an uncertainty index to evaluate the level of uncertainty of a given PM or (key performance indicator. An application example is presented. The quantification of PM uncertainty could contribute to better represent the risk associated with a given decision and also to improve the PM to increase its precision and reliability.

Treatment and reporting of uncertainties for environmental radiation measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Colle, R.

1980-01-01

Recommendations for a practical and uniform method for treating and reporting uncertainties in environmental radiation measurements data are presented. The method requires that each reported measurement result include the value, a total propagated random uncertainty expressed as the standard deviation, and a combined overall uncertainty. The uncertainty assessment should be based on as nearly a complete assessment as possible and should include every conceivable or likely source of inaccuracy in the result. Guidelines are given for estimating random and systematic uncertainty components, and for propagating and combining them to form an overall uncertainty

Reward uncertainty enhances incentive salience attribution as sign-tracking

Science.gov (United States)

Anselme, Patrick; Robinson, Mike J. F.; Berridge, Kent C.

2014-01-01

Conditioned stimuli (CSs) come to act as motivational magnets following repeated association with unconditioned stimuli (UCSs) such as sucrose rewards. By traditional views, the more reliably predictive a Pavlovian CS-UCS association, the more the CS becomes attractive. However, in some cases, less predictability might equal more motivation. Here we examined the effect of introducing uncertainty in CS-UCS association on CS strength as an attractive motivation magnet. In the present study, Experiment 1 assessed the effects of Pavlovian predictability versus uncertainty about reward probability and/or reward magnitude on the acquisition and expression of sign-tracking (ST) and goal-tracking (GT) responses in an autoshaping procedure. Results suggested that uncertainty produced strongest incentive salience expressed as sign-tracking. Experiment 2 examined whether a within-individual temporal shift from certainty to uncertainty conditions could produce a stronger CS motivational magnet when uncertainty began, and found that sign-tracking still increased after the shift. Overall, our results support earlier reports that ST responses become more pronounced in the presence of uncertainty regarding CS-UCS associations, especially when uncertainty combines both probability and magnitude. These results suggest that Pavlovian uncertainty, although diluting predictability, is still able to enhance the incentive motivational power of particular CSs. PMID:23078951

Uncertainty relation and simultaneous measurements in quantum theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Busch, P.

1982-01-01

In this thesis the question for the interpretation of the uncertainty relation is picked up, and a program for the justification of its individualistic interpretation is formulated. By means of quantum mechanical models for the position and momentum measurement a justification of the interpretaton has been tried by reconstruction of the origin of the uncertainties from the conditions of the measuring devices and the determination of the relation of the measured results to the object. By means of a model of the common measurement it could be shown how the uncertainty relation results from the not eliminable mutual disturbance of the devices and the uncertainty relation for the measuring system. So finally the commutation relation is conclusive. For the illustration the split experiment is discussed, first according to Heisenberg with fixed split, then for the quantum mechanical, movable split (Bohr-Einstein). (orig./HSI) [de

Vector network analyzer (VNA) measurements and uncertainty assessment

CERN Document Server

Shoaib, Nosherwan

2017-01-01

This book describes vector network analyzer measurements and uncertainty assessments, particularly in waveguide test-set environments, in order to establish their compatibility to the International System of Units (SI) for accurate and reliable characterization of communication networks. It proposes a fully analytical approach to measurement uncertainty evaluation, while also highlighting the interaction and the linear propagation of different uncertainty sources to compute the final uncertainties associated with the measurements. The book subsequently discusses the dimensional characterization of waveguide standards and the quality of the vector network analyzer (VNA) calibration techniques. The book concludes with an in-depth description of the novel verification artefacts used to assess the performance of the VNAs. It offers a comprehensive reference guide for beginners to experts, in both academia and industry, whose work involves the field of network analysis, instrumentation and measurements.

Measurement uncertainty budget of an interferometric flow velocity sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Bermuske, Mike; Büttner, Lars; Czarske, Jürgen

2017-06-01

Flow rate measurements are a common topic for process monitoring in chemical engineering and food industry. To achieve the requested low uncertainties of 0:1% for flow rate measurements, a precise measurement of the shear layers of such flows is necessary. The Laser Doppler Velocimeter (LDV) is an established method for measuring local flow velocities. For exact estimation of the flow rate, the flow profile in the shear layer is of importance. For standard LDV the axial resolution and therefore the number of measurement points in the shear layer is defined by the length of the measurement volume. A decrease of this length is accompanied by a larger fringe distance variation along the measurement axis which results in a rise of the measurement uncertainty for the flow velocity (uncertainty relation between spatial resolution and velocity uncertainty). As a unique advantage, the laser Doppler profile sensor (LDV-PS) overcomes this problem by using two fan-like fringe systems to obtain the position of the measured particles along the measurement axis and therefore achieve a high spatial resolution while it still offers a low velocity uncertainty. With this technique, the flow rate can be estimated with one order of magnitude lower uncertainty, down to 0:05% statistical uncertainty.1 And flow profiles especially in film flows can be measured more accurately. The problem for this technique is, in contrast to laboratory setups where the system is quite stable, that for industrial applications the sensor needs a reliable and robust traceability to the SI units, meter and second. Small deviations in the calibration can, because of the highly position depending calibration function, cause large systematic errors in the measurement result. Therefore, a simple, stable and accurate tool is needed, that can easily be used in industrial surroundings to check or recalibrate the sensor. In this work, different calibration methods are presented and their influences to the

Measure of uncertainty in regional grade variability

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tutmez, B.; Kaymak, U.; Melin, P.; Castillo, O.; Gomez Ramirez, E.; Kacprzyk, J.; Pedrycz, W.

2007-01-01

Because the geological events are neither homogeneous nor isotropic, the geological investigations are characterized by particularly high uncertainties. This paper presents a hybrid methodology for measuring of uncertainty in regional grade variability. In order to evaluate the fuzziness in grade

Uncertainty analysis guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andres, T.H.

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Uncertainty analysis guide

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andres, T.H

2002-05-01

This guide applies to the estimation of uncertainty in quantities calculated by scientific, analysis and design computer programs that fall within the scope of AECL's software quality assurance (SQA) manual. The guide weaves together rational approaches from the SQA manual and three other diverse sources: (a) the CSAU (Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty) evaluation methodology; (b) the ISO Guide,for the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement; and (c) the SVA (Systems Variability Analysis) method of risk analysis. This report describes the manner by which random and systematic uncertainties in calculated quantities can be estimated and expressed. Random uncertainty in model output can be attributed to uncertainties of inputs. The propagation of these uncertainties through a computer model can be represented in a variety of ways, including exact calculations, series approximations and Monte Carlo methods. Systematic uncertainties emerge from the development of the computer model itself, through simplifications and conservatisms, for example. These must be estimated and combined with random uncertainties to determine the combined uncertainty in a model output. This report also addresses the method by which uncertainties should be employed in code validation, in order to determine whether experiments and simulations agree, and whether or not a code satisfies the required tolerance for its application. (author)

Evaluation of the uncertainty of environmental measurements of radioactivity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heydorn, K.

2003-01-01

Full text: The almost universal acceptance of the concept of uncertainty has led to its introduction into the ISO 17025 standard for general requirements to testing and calibration laboratories. This means that not only scientists, but also legislators, politicians, the general population - and perhaps even the press - expect to see all future results associated with an expression of their uncertainty. Results obtained by measurement of radioactivity have routinely been associated with an expression of their uncertainty, based on the so-called counting statistics. This is calculated together with the actual result on the assumption that the number of counts observed has a Poisson distribution with equal mean and variance. Most of the nuclear scientific community has therefore assumed that it already complied with the latest ISO 17025 requirements. Counting statistics, however, express only the variability observed among repeated measurements of the same sample under the same counting conditions, which is equivalent to the term repeatability used in quantitative analysis. Many other sources of uncertainty need to be taken into account before a statement of the uncertainty of the actual result can be made. As the first link in the traceability chain calibration is always an important uncertainty component in any kind of measurement. For radioactivity measurements in particular we find that counting geometry assumes the greatest importance, because it is often not possible to measure a standard and a control sample under exactly the same conditions. In the case of large samples we have additional uncertainty components associated with sample heterogeneity and its influence on self-absorption and counting efficiency. In low-level environmental measurements we have an additional risk of sample contamination, but the most important contribution to uncertainty is usually the representativity of the sample being analysed. For uniform materials this can be expressed by the

Estimating the measurement uncertainty in forensic blood alcohol analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Gullberg, Rod G

2012-04-01

For many reasons, forensic toxicologists are being asked to determine and report their measurement uncertainty in blood alcohol analysis. While understood conceptually, the elements and computations involved in determining measurement uncertainty are generally foreign to most forensic toxicologists. Several established and well-documented methods are available to determine and report the uncertainty in blood alcohol measurement. A straightforward bottom-up approach is presented that includes: (1) specifying the measurand, (2) identifying the major components of uncertainty, (3) quantifying the components, (4) statistically combining the components and (5) reporting the results. A hypothetical example is presented that employs reasonable estimates for forensic blood alcohol analysis assuming headspace gas chromatography. These computations are easily employed in spreadsheet programs as well. Determining and reporting measurement uncertainty is an important element in establishing fitness-for-purpose. Indeed, the demand for such computations and information from the forensic toxicologist will continue to increase.

Uncertainty, joint uncertainty, and the quantum uncertainty principle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narasimhachar, Varun; Poostindouz, Alireza; Gour, Gilad

2016-01-01

Historically, the element of uncertainty in quantum mechanics has been expressed through mathematical identities called uncertainty relations, a great many of which continue to be discovered. These relations use diverse measures to quantify uncertainty (and joint uncertainty). In this paper we use operational information-theoretic principles to identify the common essence of all such measures, thereby defining measure-independent notions of uncertainty and joint uncertainty. We find that most existing entropic uncertainty relations use measures of joint uncertainty that yield themselves to a small class of operational interpretations. Our notion relaxes this restriction, revealing previously unexplored joint uncertainty measures. To illustrate the utility of our formalism, we derive an uncertainty relation based on one such new measure. We also use our formalism to gain insight into the conditions under which measure-independent uncertainty relations can be found. (paper)

Uncertainty quantification in nanomechanical measurements using the atomic force microscope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wagner, Ryan; Raman, Arvind; Moon, Robert; Pratt, Jon; Shaw, Gordon

2011-01-01

Quantifying uncertainty in measured properties of nanomaterials is a prerequisite for the manufacture of reliable nanoengineered materials and products. Yet, rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) is rarely applied for material property measurements with the atomic force microscope (AFM), a widely used instrument that can measure properties at nanometer scale resolution of both inorganic and biological surfaces and nanomaterials. We present a framework to ascribe uncertainty to local nanomechanical properties of any nanoparticle or surface measured with the AFM by taking into account the main uncertainty sources inherent in such measurements. We demonstrate the framework by quantifying uncertainty in AFM-based measurements of the transverse elastic modulus of cellulose nanocrystals (CNCs), an abundant, plant-derived nanomaterial whose mechanical properties are comparable to Kevlar fibers. For a single, isolated CNC the transverse elastic modulus was found to have a mean of 8.1 GPa and a 95% confidence interval of 2.7–20 GPa. A key result is that multiple replicates of force–distance curves do not sample the important sources of uncertainty, which are systematic in nature. The dominant source of uncertainty is the nondimensional photodiode sensitivity calibration rather than the cantilever stiffness or Z-piezo calibrations. The results underscore the great need for, and open a path towards, quantifying and minimizing uncertainty in AFM-based material property measurements of nanoparticles, nanostructured surfaces, thin films, polymers and biomaterials.

Information measures and uncertainty of particular symbols

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Mareš, Milan

2011-01-01

Roč. 47, č. 1 (2011), s. 144-163 ISSN 0023-5954 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 1M0572; GA ČR GA402/08/0618 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Information source * Information measure * Uncertainty modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 0.454, year: 2011 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/E/mares-information measures and uncertainty of particular symbols.pdf

Assessment of dose measurement uncertainty using RisoScan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Helt-Hansen, Jakob; Miller, Arne

2006-01-01

The dose measurement uncertainty of the dosimeter system RisoScan, office scanner and Riso B3 dosimeters has been assessed by comparison with spectrophotometer measurements of the same dosimeters. The reproducibility and the combined uncertainty were found to be approximately 2% and 4%, respectively, at one standard deviation. The subroutine in RisoScan for electron energy measurement is shown to give results that are equivalent to the measurements with a scanning spectrophotometer

Calibration and Measurement Uncertainty Estimation of Radiometric Data: Preprint

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Habte, A.; Sengupta, M.; Reda, I.; Andreas, A.; Konings, J.

2014-11-01

Evaluating the performance of photovoltaic cells, modules, and arrays that form large solar deployments relies on accurate measurements of the available solar resource. Therefore, determining the accuracy of these solar radiation measurements provides a better understanding of investment risks. This paper provides guidelines and recommended procedures for estimating the uncertainty in calibrations and measurements by radiometers using methods that follow the International Bureau of Weights and Measures Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty (GUM). Standardized analysis based on these procedures ensures that the uncertainty quoted is well documented.

Exploring the uncertainty in attributing sediment contributions in fingerprinting studies due to uncertainty in determining element concentrations in source areas.

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez, Jose Alfonso; Owens, Phillip N.; Koiter, Alex J.; Lobb, David

2016-04-01

One of the major sources of uncertainty in attributing sediment sources in fingerprinting studies is the uncertainty in determining the concentrations of the elements used in the mixing model due to the variability of the concentrations of these elements in the source materials (e.g., Kraushaar et al., 2015). The uncertainty in determining the "true" concentration of a given element in each one of the source areas depends on several factors, among them the spatial variability of that element, the sampling procedure and sampling density. Researchers have limited control over these factors, and usually sampling density tends to be sparse, limited by time and the resources available. Monte Carlo analysis has been used regularly in fingerprinting studies to explore the probable solutions within the measured variability of the elements in the source areas, providing an appraisal of the probability of the different solutions (e.g., Collins et al., 2012). This problem can be considered analogous to the propagation of uncertainty in hydrologic models due to uncertainty in the determination of the values of the model parameters, and there are many examples of Monte Carlo analysis of this uncertainty (e.g., Freeze, 1980; Gómez et al., 2001). Some of these model analyses rely on the simulation of "virtual" situations that were calibrated from parameter values found in the literature, with the purpose of providing insight about the response of the model to different configurations of input parameters. This approach - evaluating the answer for a "virtual" problem whose solution could be known in advance - might be useful in evaluating the propagation of uncertainty in mixing models in sediment fingerprinting studies. In this communication, we present the preliminary results of an on-going study evaluating the effect of variability of element concentrations in source materials, sampling density, and the number of elements included in the mixing models. For this study a virtual

Real-time hostile attribution measurement and aggression in children.

Science.gov (United States)

Yaros, Anna; Lochman, John E; Rosenbaum, Jill; Jimenez-Camargo, Luis Alberto

2014-01-01

Hostile attributions are an important predictor of aggression in children, but few studies have measured hostile attributions as they occur in real-time. The current study uses an interactive video racing game to measure hostile attributions while children played against a presumed peer. A sample of 75 children, ages 10-13, used nonverbal and verbal procedures to respond to ambiguous provocation by their opponent. Hostile attributions were significantly positively related to parent-rated reactive aggression, when controlling for proactive aggression. Hostile attributions using a nonverbal response procedure were negatively related to proactive aggression, when controlling for reactive aggression. Results suggest hostile attributions in real-time occur quickly and simultaneously with social interaction, which differs from the deliberative, controlled appraisals measured with vignette-based instruments. The relation between real-time hostile attributions and reactive aggression could be accounted for by the impulsive response style that is characteristic of reactive aggression, whereas children exhibiting proactive aggression may be more deliberate and intentional in their responding, resulting in a negative relation with real-time hostile attributions. These findings can be used both to identify children at risk for aggression and to enhance preventive interventions. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Evaluation of uncertainty and detection limits in radioactivity measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Herranz, M. [Universidad del Pais Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieria de Bilbao, Alda. Urquijo, s/n, 48013 Bilbao (Spain); Idoeta, R. [Universidad del Pais Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieria de Bilbao, Alda. Urquijo, s/n, 48013 Bilbao (Spain)], E-mail: raquel.idoeta@ehu.es; Legarda, F. [Universidad del Pais Vasco/Euskal Herriko Unibertsitatea, Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieria de Bilbao, Alda. Urquijo, s/n, 48013 Bilbao (Spain)

2008-10-01

The uncertainty associated with the assessment of the radioactive content of any sample depends on the net counting rate registered during the measuring process and on the different weighting factors needed to transform this counting rate into activity, activity per unit mass or activity concentration. This work analyses the standard uncertainties in these weighting factors as well as their contribution to the uncertainty in the activity reported for three typical determinations for environmental radioactivity measurements in the laboratory. It also studies the corresponding characteristic limits and their dependence on the standard uncertainty related to those weighting factors, offering an analysis of the effectiveness of the simplified characteristic limits as evaluated by various measuring software and laboratories.

Evaluation of uncertainty and detection limits in radioactivity measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herranz, M.; Idoeta, R.; Legarda, F.

2008-01-01

The uncertainty associated with the assessment of the radioactive content of any sample depends on the net counting rate registered during the measuring process and on the different weighting factors needed to transform this counting rate into activity, activity per unit mass or activity concentration. This work analyses the standard uncertainties in these weighting factors as well as their contribution to the uncertainty in the activity reported for three typical determinations for environmental radioactivity measurements in the laboratory. It also studies the corresponding characteristic limits and their dependence on the standard uncertainty related to those weighting factors, offering an analysis of the effectiveness of the simplified characteristic limits as evaluated by various measuring software and laboratories

Using a Meniscus to Teach Uncertainty in Measurement

Science.gov (United States)

Backman, Philip

2008-01-01

I have found that students easily understand that a measurement cannot be exact, but they often seem to lack an understanding of why it is important to know "something" about the magnitude of the uncertainty. This tends to promote an attitude that almost any uncertainty value will do. Such indifference may exist because once an uncertainty is…

Dimensional measurements with submicrometer uncertainty in production environment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

De Chiffre, L.; Gudnason, M. M.; Madruga, D.

2015-01-01

The work concerns a laboratory investigation of a method to achieve dimensional measurements with submicrometer uncertainty under conditions that are typical of a production environment. The method involves the concurrent determination of dimensions and material properties from measurements carried...... gauge blocks along with their uncertainties were estimated directly from the measurements. The length of the two workpieces at the reference temperature of 20 °C was extrapolated from the measurements and compared to certificate values. The investigations have documented that the developed approach...

Continuous quantum measurements and the action uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Mensky, Michael B.

1992-09-01

The path-integral approach to quantum theory of continuous measurements has been developed in preceding works of the author. According to this approach the measurement amplitude determining probabilities of different outputs of the measurement can be evaluated in the form of a restricted path integral (a path integral “in finite limits”). With the help of the measurement amplitude, maximum deviation of measurement outputs from the classical one can be easily determined. The aim of the present paper is to express this variance in a simpler and transparent form of a specific uncertainty principle (called the action uncertainty principle, AUP). The most simple (but weak) form of AUP is δ S≳ℏ, where S is the action functional. It can be applied for simple derivation of the Bohr-Rosenfeld inequality for measurability of gravitational field. A stronger (and having wider application) form of AUP (for ideal measurements performed in the quantum regime) is |∫{/' t″ }(δ S[ q]/δ q( t))Δ q( t) dt|≃ℏ, where the paths [ q] and [Δ q] stand correspondingly for the measurement output and for the measurement error. It can also be presented in symbolic form as Δ(Equation) Δ(Path) ≃ ℏ. This means that deviation of the observed (measured) motion from that obeying the classical equation of motion is reciprocally proportional to the uncertainty in a path (the latter uncertainty resulting from the measurement error). The consequence of AUP is that improving the measurement precision beyond the threshold of the quantum regime leads to decreasing information resulting from the measurement.

Projected uranium measurement uncertainties for the Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Younkin, J.M.

1979-02-01

An analysis was made of the uncertainties associated with the measurements of the declared uranium streams in the Portsmouth Gas Centrifuge Enrichment Plant (GCEP). The total uncertainty for the GCEP is projected to be from 54 to 108 kg 235 U/year out of a measured total of 200,000 kg 235 U/year. The systematic component of uncertainty of the UF 6 streams is the largest and the dominant contributor to the total uncertainty. A possible scheme for reducing the total uncertainty is given

Measuring the uncertainty of tapping torque

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Belluco, Walter; De Chiffre, Leonardo

An uncertainty budget is carried out for torque measurements performed at the Institut for Procesteknik for the evaluation of cutting fluids. Thirty test blanks were machined with one tool and one fluid, torque diagrams were recorded and the repeatability of single torque measurements was estimat...

What information on measurement uncertainty should be communicated to clinicians, and how?

Science.gov (United States)

Plebani, Mario; Sciacovelli, Laura; Bernardi, Daniela; Aita, Ada; Antonelli, Giorgia; Padoan, Andrea

2018-02-02

The communication of laboratory results to physicians and the quality of reports represent fundamental requirements of the post-analytical phase in order to assure the right interpretation and utilization of laboratory information. Accordingly, the International Standard for clinical laboratories accreditation (ISO 15189) requires that "laboratory reports shall include the information necessary for the interpretation of the examination results". Measurement uncertainty (MU) is an inherent property of any quantitative measurement result which express the lack of knowledge of the true value and quantify the uncertainty of a result, incorporating the factors known to influence it. Even if the MU is not included in the report attributes of ISO 15189 and cannot be considered a post-analytical requirement, it is suggested as an information which should facilitate an appropriate interpretation of quantitative results (quantity values). Therefore, MU has two intended uses: for laboratory professionals, it gives information about the quality of measurements, providing evidence of the compliance with analytical performance characteristics; for physicians (and patients) it may help in interpretation of measurement results, especially when values are compared with reference intervals or clinical decision limits, providing objective information. Here we describe the way that MU should be added to laboratory reports in order to facilitate the interpretation of laboratory results and connecting efforts performed within laboratory to provide more accurate and reliable results with a more objective tool for their interpretation by physicians. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A decision-oriented measure of uncertainty importance for use in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, Kurt

1997-01-01

For the interpretation of the results of probabilistic risk assessments it is important to have measures which identify the basic events that contribute most to the frequency of the top event but also to identify basic events that are the main contributors to the uncertainty in this frequency. Both types of measures, often called Importance Measure and Measure of Uncertainty Importance, respectively, have been the subject of interest for many researchers in the reliability field. The most frequent mode of uncertainty analysis in connection with probabilistic risk assessment has been to propagate the uncertainty of all model parameters up to an uncertainty distribution for the top event frequency. Various uncertainty importance measures have been proposed in order to point out the parameters that in some sense are the main contributors to the top event distribution. The new measure of uncertainty importance suggested here goes a step further in that it has been developed within a decision theory framework, thereby providing an indication of on what basic event it would be most valuable, from the decision-making point of view, to procure more information

Uncertainty budget for optical coordinate measurements of circle diameter

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morace, Renate Erica; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard; De Chiffre, Leonardo

2004-01-01

An uncertainty analysis for circle diameter measurements using a coordinate measuring machine (CMM) equipped with an optical probe is presented in this paper. A mathematical model for data evaluation and uncertainty assessment was formulated in accordance with Guide to the Expression of Uncertain...

Uncertainties for pressure-time efficiency measurements

OpenAIRE

Ramdal, Jørgen; Jonsson, Pontus; Dahlhaug, Ole Gunnar; Nielsen, Torbjørn; Cervantes, Michel

2010-01-01

 In connection with the pressure-time project at the Norwegian University of Science and Technology and Luleå University of Technology, a number of tests with the pressure-time method have been performed at the Waterpower Laboratory in Trondheim, Norway. The aim is to lower the uncertainty and improve usability of the method. Also a field test at the Anundsjoe power plant in Sweden has been performed. The pressure-time measurement is affected by random uncertainty. To minimize the effect of t...

Immersive Data Comprehension: Visualizing Uncertainty in Measurable Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pere eBrunet

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Recent advances in 3D scanning technologies have opened new possibilities in a broad range of applications includingcultural heritage, medicine, civil engineering and urban planning. Virtual Reality systems can provide new tools toprofessionals that want to understand acquired 3D models. In this paper, we review the concept of data comprehension with an emphasis on visualization and inspection tools on immersive setups. We claim that in most application fields, data comprehension requires model measurements which in turn should be based on the explicit visualization of uncertainty. As 3D digital representations are not faithful, information on their fidelity at local level should be included in the model itself as uncertainty bounds. We propose the concept of Measurable 3D Models as digital models that explicitly encode local uncertainty bounds related to their quality. We claim that professionals and experts can strongly benefit from immersive interaction through new specific, fidelity-aware measurement tools which can facilitate 3D data comprehension. Since noise and processing errors are ubiquitous in acquired datasets, we discuss the estimation, representation and visualization of data uncertainty. We show that, based on typical user requirements in Cultural Heritage and other domains, application-oriented measuring tools in 3D models must consider uncertainty and local error bounds. We also discuss the requirements of immersive interaction tools for the comprehension of huge 3D and nD datasets acquired from real objects.

A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report: Updated in 2016

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sisterson, Douglas [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

2017-01-15

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. ARM currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through several sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, ARM relies on Instrument Mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed. This report is a continuation of the work presented by Campos and Sisterson (2015) and provides additional uncertainty information from instruments not available in their report. As before, a total measurement uncertainty has been calculated as a function of the instrument uncertainty (calibration factors), the field uncertainty (environmental factors), and the retrieval uncertainty (algorithm factors). This study will not expand on methods for computing these uncertainties. As before, it will focus on the practical identification, characterization, and inventory of the measurement uncertainties already available to the ARM community through the ARM Instrument Mentors and their ARM instrument handbooks. This study continues the first steps towards reporting ARM measurement uncertainty as: (1) identifying how the uncertainty of individual ARM measurements is currently expressed, (2) identifying a consistent approach to measurement uncertainty, and then (3) reclassifying ARM instrument measurement uncertainties in a common framework.

Regional uncertainty of GOSAT XCO2 retrievals in China: quantification and attribution

Science.gov (United States)

Bie, Nian; Lei, Liping; Zeng, ZhaoCheng; Cai, Bofeng; Yang, Shaoyuan; He, Zhonghua; Wu, Changjiang; Nassar, Ray

2018-03-01

The regional uncertainty of the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2) retrieved using different algorithms from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT) and its attribution are still not well understood. This paper investigates the regional performance of XCO2 within a latitude band of 37-42° N segmented into 8 cells in a grid of 5° from west to east (80-120° E) in China, where typical land surface types and geographic conditions exist. The former includes desert, grassland and built-up areas mixed with cropland; and the latter includes anthropogenic emissions that change from small to large from west to east, including those from the megacity of Beijing. For these specific cells, we evaluate the regional uncertainty of GOSAT XCO2 retrievals by quantifying and attributing the consistency of XCO2 retrievals from four algorithms (ACOS, NIES, OCFP and SRFP) by intercomparison. These retrievals are then specifically compared with simulated XCO2 from the high-resolution nested model in East Asia of the Goddard Earth Observing System 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem). We also introduce the anthropogenic CO2 emissions data generated from the investigation of surface emitting point sources that was conducted by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to GEOS-Chem simulations of XCO2 over the Chinese mainland. The results indicate that (1) regionally, the four algorithms demonstrate smaller absolute biases of 0.7-1.1 ppm in eastern cells, which are covered by built-up areas mixed with cropland with intensive anthropogenic emissions, than those in the western desert cells (1.0-1.6 ppm) with a high-brightness surface from the pairwise comparison results of XCO2 retrievals. (2) Compared with XCO2 simulated by GEOS-Chem (GEOS-XCO2), the XCO2 values from ACOS and SRFP have better agreement, while values from OCFP are the least consistent with GEOS-XCO2. (3) Viewing attributions of XCO2 in the spatio-temporal pattern, ACOS and SRFP

Regional uncertainty of GOSAT XCO2 retrievals in China: quantification and attribution

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. Bie

2018-03-01

Full Text Available The regional uncertainty of the column-averaged dry air mole fraction of CO2 (XCO2 retrieved using different algorithms from the Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite (GOSAT and its attribution are still not well understood. This paper investigates the regional performance of XCO2 within a latitude band of 37–42° N segmented into 8 cells in a grid of 5° from west to east (80–120° E in China, where typical land surface types and geographic conditions exist. The former includes desert, grassland and built-up areas mixed with cropland; and the latter includes anthropogenic emissions that change from small to large from west to east, including those from the megacity of Beijing. For these specific cells, we evaluate the regional uncertainty of GOSAT XCO2 retrievals by quantifying and attributing the consistency of XCO2 retrievals from four algorithms (ACOS, NIES, OCFP and SRFP by intercomparison. These retrievals are then specifically compared with simulated XCO2 from the high-resolution nested model in East Asia of the Goddard Earth Observing System 3-D chemical transport model (GEOS-Chem. We also introduce the anthropogenic CO2 emissions data generated from the investigation of surface emitting point sources that was conducted by the Ministry of Environmental Protection of China to GEOS-Chem simulations of XCO2 over the Chinese mainland. The results indicate that (1 regionally, the four algorithms demonstrate smaller absolute biases of 0.7–1.1 ppm in eastern cells, which are covered by built-up areas mixed with cropland with intensive anthropogenic emissions, than those in the western desert cells (1.0–1.6 ppm with a high-brightness surface from the pairwise comparison results of XCO2 retrievals. (2 Compared with XCO2 simulated by GEOS-Chem (GEOS-XCO2, the XCO2 values from ACOS and SRFP have better agreement, while values from OCFP are the least consistent with GEOS-XCO2. (3 Viewing attributions of XCO2 in the spatio

Expanded and combined uncertainty in measurements by GM counters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stankovic, K.; Arandjic, D.; Lazarevic, Dj.; Osmokrovic, P.

2007-01-01

This paper deals with possible ways of obtaining expanded and combined uncertainty in measurements for four types of GM counters with a same counter's tube, in cases when the contributors of these uncertainties are cosmic background radiation and induced overvoltage phenomena. Nowadays, as a consequence of electromagnetic radiation, the latter phenomenon is especially marked in urban environments. Based on experimental results obtained, it has been established that the uncertainties of an influenced random variable 'number of pulses from background radiation' and 'number of pulses induced by overvoltage' depend on the technological solution of the counter's reading system and contribute in different ways to the expanded and combined uncertainty in measurements of the applied types of GM counters. (author)

Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

2018-04-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

Evaluating the uncertainty of input quantities in measurement models

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Elster, Clemens

2014-06-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) gives guidance about how values and uncertainties should be assigned to the input quantities that appear in measurement models. This contribution offers a concrete proposal for how that guidance may be updated in light of the advances in the evaluation and expression of measurement uncertainty that were made in the course of the twenty years that have elapsed since the publication of the GUM, and also considering situations that the GUM does not yet contemplate. Our motivation is the ongoing conversation about a new edition of the GUM. While generally we favour a Bayesian approach to uncertainty evaluation, we also recognize the value that other approaches may bring to the problems considered here, and focus on methods for uncertainty evaluation and propagation that are widely applicable, including to cases that the GUM has not yet addressed. In addition to Bayesian methods, we discuss maximum-likelihood estimation, robust statistical methods, and measurement models where values of nominal properties play the same role that input quantities play in traditional models. We illustrate these general-purpose techniques in concrete examples, employing data sets that are realistic but that also are of conveniently small sizes. The supplementary material available online lists the R computer code that we have used to produce these examples (stacks.iop.org/Met/51/3/339/mmedia). Although we strive to stay close to clause 4 of the GUM, which addresses the evaluation of uncertainty for input quantities, we depart from it as we review the classes of measurement models that we believe are generally useful in contemporary measurement science. We also considerably expand and update the treatment that the GUM gives to Type B evaluations of uncertainty: reviewing the state-of-the-art, disciplined approach to the elicitation of expert knowledge, and its encapsulation in probability distributions that are usable in

Optimal entropic uncertainty relation for successive measurements ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

measurements in quantum information theory. M D SRINIVAS ... derived by Robertson in 1929 [2] from the first principles of quantum theory, does not ... systems and may hence be referred to as 'uncertainty relations for distinct measurements'.

Assessing measurement uncertainty in meteorology in urban environments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Curci, S; Lavecchia, C; Frustaci, G; Pilati, S; Paganelli, C; Paolini, R

2017-01-01

Measurement uncertainty in meteorology has been addressed in a number of recent projects. In urban environments, uncertainty is also affected by local effects which are more difficult to deal with than for synoptic stations. In Italy, beginning in 2010, an urban meteorological network (Climate Network ® ) was designed, set up and managed at national level according to high metrological standards and homogeneity criteria to support energy applications. The availability of such a high-quality operative automatic weather station network represents an opportunity to investigate the effects of station siting and sensor exposure and to estimate the related measurement uncertainty. An extended metadata set was established for the stations in Milan, including siting and exposure details. Statistical analysis on an almost 3-year-long operational period assessed network homogeneity, quality and reliability. Deviations from reference mean values were then evaluated in selected low-gradient local weather situations in order to investigate siting and exposure effects. In this paper the methodology is depicted and preliminary results of its application to air temperature discussed; this allowed the setting of an upper limit of 1 °C for the added measurement uncertainty at the top of the urban canopy layer. (paper)

Assessing measurement uncertainty in meteorology in urban environments

Science.gov (United States)

Curci, S.; Lavecchia, C.; Frustaci, G.; Paolini, R.; Pilati, S.; Paganelli, C.

2017-10-01

Measurement uncertainty in meteorology has been addressed in a number of recent projects. In urban environments, uncertainty is also affected by local effects which are more difficult to deal with than for synoptic stations. In Italy, beginning in 2010, an urban meteorological network (Climate Network®) was designed, set up and managed at national level according to high metrological standards and homogeneity criteria to support energy applications. The availability of such a high-quality operative automatic weather station network represents an opportunity to investigate the effects of station siting and sensor exposure and to estimate the related measurement uncertainty. An extended metadata set was established for the stations in Milan, including siting and exposure details. Statistical analysis on an almost 3-year-long operational period assessed network homogeneity, quality and reliability. Deviations from reference mean values were then evaluated in selected low-gradient local weather situations in order to investigate siting and exposure effects. In this paper the methodology is depicted and preliminary results of its application to air temperature discussed; this allowed the setting of an upper limit of 1 °C for the added measurement uncertainty at the top of the urban canopy layer.

Uncertainty of spatial straightness in 3D measurement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Jinxing; Jiang Xiangqian; Ma Limin; Xu Zhengao; Li Zhu

2005-01-01

The least-square method is commonly employed to verify the spatial straightness in actual three-dimensional measurement process, but the uncertainty of the verification result is usually not given by the coordinate measuring machines. According to the basic principle of spatial straightness least-square verification and the uncertainty propagation formula given by ISO/TS 14253-2, a calculation method for the uncertainty of spatial straightness least-square verification is proposed in this paper. By this method, the coefficients of the line equation are regarded as a statistical vector, so that the line equation, the result of the spatial straightness verification and the uncertainty of the result can be obtained after the expected value and covariance matrix of the vector are determined. The method not only assures the integrity of the verification result, but also accords with the requirement of the new generation of GPS standards, which can improve the veracity of verification

Treatment of measurement uncertainties at the power burst facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Meyer, L.C.

1980-01-01

The treatment of measurement uncertainty at the Power Burst Facility provides a means of improving data integrity as well as meeting standard practice reporting requirements. This is accomplished by performing the uncertainty analysis in two parts, test independent uncertainty analysis and test dependent uncertainty analysis. The test independent uncertainty analysis is performed on instrumentation used repeatedly from one test to the next, and does not have to be repeated for each test except for improved or new types of instruments. A test dependent uncertainty analysis is performed on each test based on the test independent uncertainties modified as required by test specifications, experiment fixture design, and historical performance of instruments on similar tests. The methodology for performing uncertainty analysis based on the National Bureau of Standards method is reviewed with examples applied to nuclear instrumentation

Deriving proper measurement uncertainty from Internal Quality Control data: An impossible mission?

Science.gov (United States)

Ceriotti, Ferruccio

2018-03-30

Measurement uncertainty (MU) is a "non-negative parameter characterizing the dispersion of the quantity values being attributed to a measurand, based on the information used". In the clinical laboratory the most convenient way to calculate MU is the "top down" approach based on the use of Internal Quality Control data. As indicated in the definition, MU depends on the information used for its calculation and so different estimates of MU can be obtained. The most problematic aspect is how to deal with bias. In fact bias is difficult to detect and quantify and it should be corrected including only the uncertainty derived from this correction. Several approaches to calculate MU starting from Internal Quality Control data are presented. The minimum requirement is to use only the intermediate precision data, provided to include 6 months of results obtained with a commutable quality control material at a concentration close to the clinical decision limit. This approach is the minimal requirement and it is convenient for all those measurands that are especially used for monitoring or where a reference measurement system does not exist and so a reference for calculating the bias is lacking. Other formulas including the uncertainty of the value of the calibrator, including the bias from a commutable certified reference material or from a material specifically prepared for trueness verification, including the bias derived from External Quality Assessment schemes or from historical mean of the laboratory are presented and commented. MU is an important parameter, but a single, agreed upon way to calculate it in a clinical laboratory is not yet available. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

A Unified Approach for Reporting ARM Measurement Uncertainties Technical Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Campos, E [Argonne National Laboratory; Sisterson, DL [Argonne National Laboratory

2015-10-01

The Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility is observationally based, and quantifying the uncertainty of its measurements is critically important. With over 300 widely differing instruments providing over 2,500 datastreams, concise expression of measurement uncertainty is quite challenging. The ARM Facility currently provides data and supporting metadata (information about the data or data quality) to its users through a number of sources. Because the continued success of the ARM Facility depends on the known quality of its measurements, the Facility relies on instrument mentors and the ARM Data Quality Office (DQO) to ensure, assess, and report measurement quality. Therefore, an easily-accessible, well-articulated estimate of ARM measurement uncertainty is needed.

Uncertainty quantification in nanomechanical measurements using the atomic force microscope

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan Wagner; Robert Moon; Jon Pratt; Gordon Shaw; Arvind Raman

2011-01-01

Quantifying uncertainty in measured properties of nanomaterials is a prerequisite for the manufacture of reliable nanoengineered materials and products. Yet, rigorous uncertainty quantification (UQ) is rarely applied for material property measurements with the atomic force microscope (AFM), a widely used instrument that can measure properties at nanometer scale...

Assessing student understanding of measurement and uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Jirungnimitsakul, S.; Wattanakasiwich, P.

2017-09-01

The objectives of this study were to develop and assess student understanding of measurement and uncertainty. A test has been adapted and translated from the Laboratory Data Analysis Instrument (LDAI) test, consists of 25 questions focused on three topics including measures of central tendency, experimental errors and uncertainties, and fitting regression lines. The test was evaluated its content validity by three physics experts in teaching physics laboratory. In the pilot study, Thai LDAI was administered to 93 freshmen enrolled in a fundamental physics laboratory course. The final draft of the test was administered to three groups—45 freshmen taking fundamental physics laboratory, 16 sophomores taking intermediated physics laboratory and 21 juniors taking advanced physics laboratory at Chiang Mai University. As results, we found that the freshmen had difficulties in experimental errors and uncertainties. Most students had problems with fitting regression lines. These results will be used to improve teaching and learning physics laboratory for physics students in the department.

The Validity of Attribute-Importance Measurement: A Review

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ittersum, van K.; Pennings, J.M.E.; Wansink, B.; Trijp, van J.C.M.

2007-01-01

A critical review of the literature demonstrates a lack of validity among the ten most common methods for measuring the importance of attributes in behavioral sciences. The authors argue that one of the key determinants of this lack of validity is the multi-dimensionality of attribute importance.

Evaluation of Sources of Uncertainties in Solar Resource Measurement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Habte, Aron M [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Sengupta, Manajit [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

2017-09-25

This poster presents a high-level overview of sources of uncertainties in solar resource measurement, demonstrating the impact of various sources of uncertainties -- such as cosine response, thermal offset, spectral response, and others -- on the accuracy of data from several radiometers. The study provides insight on how to reduce the impact of some of the sources of uncertainties.

LOFT experimental measurements uncertainty analyses. Volume XX. Fluid-velocity measurement using pulsed-neutron activation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lassahn, G.D.; Taylor, D.J.N.

1982-08-01

Analyses of uncertainty components inherent in pulsed-neutron-activation (PNA) measurements in general and the Loss-of-Fluid-Test (LOFT) system in particular are given. Due to the LOFT system's unique conditions, previously-used techniques were modified to make the volocity measurement. These methods render a useful, cost-effective measurement with an estimated uncertainty of 11% of reading

Application of a virtual coordinate measuring machine for measurement uncertainty estimation of aspherical lens parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Küng, Alain; Meli, Felix; Nicolet, Anaïs; Thalmann, Rudolf

2014-01-01

Tactile ultra-precise coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) are very attractive for accurately measuring optical components with high slopes, such as aspheres. The METAS µ-CMM, which exhibits a single point measurement repeatability of a few nanometres, is routinely used for measurement services of microparts, including optical lenses. However, estimating the measurement uncertainty is very demanding. Because of the many combined influencing factors, an analytic determination of the uncertainty of parameters that are obtained by numerical fitting of the measured surface points is almost impossible. The application of numerical simulation (Monte Carlo methods) using a parametric fitting algorithm coupled with a virtual CMM based on a realistic model of the machine errors offers an ideal solution to this complex problem: to each measurement data point, a simulated measurement variation calculated from the numerical model of the METAS µ-CMM is added. Repeated several hundred times, these virtual measurements deliver the statistical data for calculating the probability density function, and thus the measurement uncertainty for each parameter. Additionally, the eventual cross-correlation between parameters can be analyzed. This method can be applied for the calibration and uncertainty estimation of any parameter of the equation representing a geometric element. In this article, we present the numerical simulation model of the METAS µ-CMM and the application of a Monte Carlo method for the uncertainty estimation of measured asphere parameters. (paper)

Waste receiving and processing drum weight measurement uncertainty review findings

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

LANE, M.P.

1999-01-01

The purpose of reviewing the weight scale operation at the WRAP facility was to determine the uncertainty associated with weight measurements. Weight measurement uncertainty is needed to support WRAP Nondestructive Examination (NDE) and Non-destructive Assay (NDA) analysis

Assessment of dose measurement uncertainty using RisøScan

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Helt-Hansen, J.; Miller, A.

2006-01-01

The dose measurement uncertainty of the dosimeter system RisoScan, office scanner and Riso B3 dosimeters has been assessed by comparison with spectrophotometer measurements of the same dosimeters. The reproducibility and the combined uncertainty were found to be approximately 2% and 4%, respectiv......%, respectively, at one standard deviation. The subroutine in RisoScan for electron energy measurement is shown to give results that are equivalent to the measurements with a scanning spectrophotometer. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved....

The action uncertainty principle for continuous measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Mensky, Michael B.

1996-02-01

The action uncertainty principle (AUP) for the specification of the most probable readouts of continuous quantum measurements is proved, formulated in different forms and analyzed (for nonlinear as well as linear systems). Continuous monitoring of an observable A(p,q,t) with resolution Δa( t) is considered. The influence of the measurement process on the evolution of the measured system (quantum measurement noise) is presented by an additional term δ F(t)A(p,q,t) in the Hamiltonian where the function δ F (generalized fictitious force) is restricted by the AUP ∫|δ F(t)| Δa( t) d t ≲ and arbitrary otherwise. Quantum-nondemolition (QND) measurements are analyzed with the help of the AUP. A simple uncertainty relation for continuous quantum measurements is derived. It states that the area of a certain band in the phase space should be of the order of. The width of the band depends on the measurement resolution while its length is determined by the deviation of the system, due to the measurement, from classical behavior.

The action uncertainty principle for continuous measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mensky, M.B.

1996-01-01

The action uncertainty principle (AUP) for the specification of the most probable readouts of continuous quantum measurements is proved, formulated in different forms and analyzed (for nonlinear as well as linear systems). Continuous monitoring of an observable A(p,q,t) with resolution Δa(t) is considered. The influence of the measurement process on the evolution of the measured system (quantum measurement noise) is presented by an additional term δF(t) A(p,q,t) in the Hamiltonian where the function δF (generalized fictitious force) is restricted by the AUP ∫ vertical stroke δF(t) vertical stroke Δa(t)d t< or∼ℎ and arbitrary otherwise. Quantum-nondemolition (QND) measurements are analyzed with the help of the AUP. A simple uncertainty relation for continuous quantum measurements is derived. It states that the area of a certain band in the phase space should be of the order of ℎ. The width of the band depends on the measurement resolution while its length is determined by the deviation of the system, due to the measurement, from classical behavior. (orig.)

The estimation of uncertainty of radioactivity measurement on gamma counters in radiopharmacy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jovanovic, M.S.; Orlic, M.; Vranjes, S.; Stamenkovic, Lj. . E-mail address of corresponding author: nikijov@vin.bg.ac.yu; Jovanovic, M.S.)

2005-01-01

In this paper the estimation of uncertainty of measurement of radioactivity on gamma counter in Laboratory for radioisotopes is presented. The uncertainty components, which are important for these measurements, are identified and taken into account while estimating the uncertainty of measurement.(author)

Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wells, C.V.

1992-11-01

Interest in Measurement Uncertainty Analysis has grown in the past several years as it has spread to new fields of application, and research and development of uncertainty methodologies have continued. This paper discusses the subject from the perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the principles of uncertainty analysis embodied in the United States National Standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-1985, Measurement Uncertainty. Examples are presented in which uncertainty analysis was utilized or is needed to gain further knowledge of a particular measurement process and to characterize final results. Measurement uncertainty analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the interval about a measured value or an experiment result within which the true value of that quantity is expected to lie. Years ago, Harry Ku of the United States National Bureau of Standards stated that ``The informational content of the statement of uncertainty determines, to a large extent, the worth of the calibrated value.`` Today, that statement is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true? What kind of information should we include in a statement of uncertainty accompanying a calibrated value? How and where do we get the information to include in an uncertainty statement? How should we interpret and use measurement uncertainty information? This discussion will provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been developed by national and international groups over the past nearly thirty years, and individuals were publishing information even earlier. Yet the work is largely unknown in many science and engineering arenas. I will illustrate various aspects of uncertainty analysis with some examples drawn from the radiometry measurement and calibration discipline from research activities.

Principles and applications of measurement and uncertainty analysis in research and calibration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wells, C.V.

1992-11-01

Interest in Measurement Uncertainty Analysis has grown in the past several years as it has spread to new fields of application, and research and development of uncertainty methodologies have continued. This paper discusses the subject from the perspectives of both research and calibration environments. It presents a history of the development and an overview of the principles of uncertainty analysis embodied in the United States National Standard, ANSI/ASME PTC 19.1-1985, Measurement Uncertainty. Examples are presented in which uncertainty analysis was utilized or is needed to gain further knowledge of a particular measurement process and to characterize final results. Measurement uncertainty analysis provides a quantitative estimate of the interval about a measured value or an experiment result within which the true value of that quantity is expected to lie. Years ago, Harry Ku of the United States National Bureau of Standards stated that The informational content of the statement of uncertainty determines, to a large extent, the worth of the calibrated value.'' Today, that statement is just as true about calibration or research results as it was in 1968. Why is that true What kind of information should we include in a statement of uncertainty accompanying a calibrated value How and where do we get the information to include in an uncertainty statement How should we interpret and use measurement uncertainty information This discussion will provide answers to these and other questions about uncertainty in research and in calibration. The methodology to be described has been developed by national and international groups over the past nearly thirty years, and individuals were publishing information even earlier. Yet the work is largely unknown in many science and engineering arenas. I will illustrate various aspects of uncertainty analysis with some examples drawn from the radiometry measurement and calibration discipline from research activities.

BOOK REVIEW: Evaluating the Measurement Uncertainty: Fundamentals and practical guidance

Science.gov (United States)

Lira, Ignacio

2003-08-01

Evaluating the Measurement Uncertainty is a book written for anyone who makes and reports measurements. It attempts to fill the gaps in the ISO Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, or the GUM, and does a pretty thorough job. The GUM was written with the intent of being applicable by all metrologists, from the shop floor to the National Metrology Institute laboratory; however, the GUM has often been criticized for its lack of user-friendliness because it is primarily filled with statements, but with little explanation. Evaluating the Measurement Uncertainty gives lots of explanations. It is well written and makes use of many good figures and numerical examples. Also important, this book is written by a metrologist from a National Metrology Institute, and therefore up-to-date ISO rules, style conventions and definitions are correctly used and supported throughout. The author sticks very closely to the GUM in topical theme and with frequent reference, so readers who have not read GUM cover-to-cover may feel as if they are missing something. The first chapter consists of a reprinted lecture by T J Quinn, Director of the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures (BIPM), on the role of metrology in today's world. It is an interesting and informative essay that clearly outlines the importance of metrology in our modern society, and why accurate measurement capability, and by definition uncertainty evaluation, should be so important. Particularly interesting is the section on the need for accuracy rather than simply reproducibility. Evaluating the Measurement Uncertainty then begins at the beginning, with basic concepts and definitions. The third chapter carefully introduces the concept of standard uncertainty and includes many derivations and discussion of probability density functions. The author also touches on Monte Carlo methods, calibration correction quantities, acceptance intervals or guardbanding, and many other interesting cases. The book goes

Uncertainty estimation with a small number of measurements, part II: a redefinition of uncertainty and an estimator method

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Hening

2018-01-01

This paper is the second (Part II) in a series of two papers (Part I and Part II). Part I has quantitatively discussed the fundamental limitations of the t-interval method for uncertainty estimation with a small number of measurements. This paper (Part II) reveals that the t-interval is an ‘exact’ answer to a wrong question; it is actually misused in uncertainty estimation. This paper proposes a redefinition of uncertainty, based on the classical theory of errors and the theory of point estimation, and a modification of the conventional approach to estimating measurement uncertainty. It also presents an asymptotic procedure for estimating the z-interval. The proposed modification is to replace the t-based uncertainty with an uncertainty estimator (mean- or median-unbiased). The uncertainty estimator method is an approximate answer to the right question to uncertainty estimation. The modified approach provides realistic estimates of uncertainty, regardless of whether the population standard deviation is known or unknown, or if the sample size is small or large. As an application example of the modified approach, this paper presents a resolution to the Du-Yang paradox (i.e. Paradox 2), one of the three paradoxes caused by the misuse of the t-interval in uncertainty estimation.

Measurement Issues for Energy Efficient Commercial Buildings: Productivity and Performance Uncertainties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jones, D.W.

2002-05-16

In previous reports, we have identified two potentially important issues, solutions to which would increase the attractiveness of DOE-developed technologies in commercial buildings energy systems. One issue concerns the fact that in addition to saving energy, many new technologies offer non-energy benefits that contribute to building productivity (firm profitability). The second issue is that new technologies are typically unproven in the eyes of decision makers and must bear risk premiums that offset cost advantages resulting from laboratory calculations. Even though a compelling case can be made for the importance of these issues, for building decision makers to incorporate them in business decisions and for DOE to use them in R&D program planning there must be robust empirical evidence of their existence and size. This paper investigates how such measurements could be made and offers recommendations as to preferred options. There is currently little systematic information on either of these concepts in the literature. Of the two there is somewhat more information on non-energy benefits, but little as regards office buildings. Office building productivity impacts can be observed casually, but must be estimated statistically, because buildings have many interacting attributes and observations based on direct behavior can easily confuse the process of attribution. For example, absenteeism can be easily observed. However, absenteeism may be down because a more healthy space conditioning system was put into place, because the weather was milder, or because firm policy regarding sick days had changed. There is also a general dearth of appropriate information for purposes of estimation. To overcome these difficulties, we propose developing a new data base and applying the technique of hedonic price analysis. This technique has been used extensively in the analysis of residential dwellings. There is also a literature on its application to commercial and industrial

Quantifying the measurement uncertainty of results from environmental analytical methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Moser, J; Wegscheider, W; Sperka-Gottlieb, C

2001-07-01

The Eurachem-CITAC Guide Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurement was put into practice in a public laboratory devoted to environmental analytical measurements. In doing so due regard was given to the provisions of ISO 17025 and an attempt was made to base the entire estimation of measurement uncertainty on available data from the literature or from previously performed validation studies. Most environmental analytical procedures laid down in national or international standards are the result of cooperative efforts and put into effect as part of a compromise between all parties involved, public and private, that also encompasses environmental standards and statutory limits. Central to many procedures is the focus on the measurement of environmental effects rather than on individual chemical species. In this situation it is particularly important to understand the measurement process well enough to produce a realistic uncertainty statement. Environmental analytical methods will be examined as far as necessary, but reference will also be made to analytical methods in general and to physical measurement methods where appropriate. This paper describes ways and means of quantifying uncertainty for frequently practised methods of environmental analysis. It will be shown that operationally defined measurands are no obstacle to the estimation process as described in the Eurachem/CITAC Guide if it is accepted that the dominating component of uncertainty comes from the actual practice of the method as a reproducibility standard deviation.

The use of measurement uncertainty in nuclear materials accuracy and verification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Alique, O.; Vaccaro, S.; Svedkauskaite, J.

2015-01-01

EURATOM nuclear safeguards are based on the nuclear operators’ accounting for and declaring of the amounts of nuclear materials in their possession, as well as on the European Commission verifying the correctness and completeness of such declarations by means of conformity assessment practices. Both the accountancy and the verification processes comprise the measurements of amounts and characteristics of nuclear materials. The uncertainties associated to these measurements play an important role in the reliability of the results of nuclear material accountancy and verification. The document “JCGM 100:2008 Evaluation of measurement data – Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement” - issued jointly by the International Bureau of Weights and Measures (BIPM) and international organisations for metrology, standardisation and accreditation in chemistry, physics and electro technology - describes a universal, internally consistent, transparent and applicable method for the evaluation and expression of uncertainty in measurements. This paper discusses different processes of nuclear materials accountancy and verification where measurement uncertainty plays a significant role. It also suggests the way measurement uncertainty could be used to enhance the reliability of the results of the nuclear materials accountancy and verification processes.

Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

2004-01-01

. The project partnership aims (composed by 7 partners in 5 countries, thus covering a real European spread in high tech production technology) to develop and implement an advanced e-learning system that integrates contributions from quite different disciplines into a user-centred approach that strictly....... Machine tool testing 9. The role of manufacturing metrology for QM 10. Inspection planning 11. Quality management of measurements incl. Documentation 12. Advanced manufacturing measurement technology The present report (which represents the section 2 - Traceability and Measurement Uncertainty – of the e-learning......This report is made as a part of the project ‘Metro-E-Learn: European e-Learning in Manufacturing Metrology’, an EU project under the program SOCRATES MINERVA (ODL and ICT in Education), Contract No: 101434-CP-1-2002-1-DE-MINERVA, coordinated by Friedrich-Alexander-University Erlangen...

Inspection of freeform surfaces considering uncertainties in measurement, localization and surface reconstruction

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mehrad, Vahid; Xue, Deyi; Gu, Peihua

2013-01-01

Inspection of a manufactured freeform surface can be conducted by building its surface model and comparing this manufactured surface model with the ideal design surface model and its tolerance requirement. The manufactured freeform surface model is usually achieved by obtaining measurement points on the manufactured surface, transforming these measurement points from the measurement coordinate system to the design coordinate system through localization, and reconstructing the surface model using the localized measurement points. In this research, a method was developed to estimate the locations and their variances of any selected points on the reconstructed freeform surface considering different sources of uncertainties in measurement, localization and surface reconstruction processes. In this method, first locations and variances of the localized measurement points are calculated considering uncertainties of the measurement points and uncertainties introduced in the localization processes. Then locations and variances of points on the reconstructed freeform surface are obtained considering uncertainties of the localized measurement points and uncertainties introduced in the freeform surface reconstruction process. Two case studies were developed to demonstrate how these three different uncertainty sources influence the quality of the reconstructed freeform curve and freeform surface in inspection. (paper)

Attribution Theory and Judgment under Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

1975-06-13

that every- cuy learning experiences are typically not structured to develop cognitive control. Much of the problem appears to be related to...people do and should explain past events may be found in the ruminations of historians over the state and nature of their craft (e.g.. Beard, 1935...8217 P- N- Psychology of Reasoning: Structure and Content . London: Bacsford, 19727 gcruccure - Attribution Theory 51 Wyer, R. S. CoRnitive

Uncertainty associated with the gravimetric measurement of particulate matter concentration in ambient air.

Science.gov (United States)

Lacey, Ronald E; Faulkner, William Brock

2015-07-01

This work applied a propagation of uncertainty method to typical total suspended particulate (TSP) sampling apparatus in order to estimate the overall measurement uncertainty. The objectives of this study were to estimate the uncertainty for three TSP samplers, develop an uncertainty budget, and determine the sensitivity of the total uncertainty to environmental parameters. The samplers evaluated were the TAMU High Volume TSP Sampler at a nominal volumetric flow rate of 1.42 m3 min(-1) (50 CFM), the TAMU Low Volume TSP Sampler at a nominal volumetric flow rate of 17 L min(-1) (0.6 CFM) and the EPA TSP Sampler at the nominal volumetric flow rates of 1.1 and 1.7 m3 min(-1) (39 and 60 CFM). Under nominal operating conditions the overall measurement uncertainty was found to vary from 6.1x10(-6) g m(-3) to 18.0x10(-6) g m(-3), which represented an uncertainty of 1.7% to 5.2% of the measurement. Analysis of the uncertainty budget determined that three of the instrument parameters contributed significantly to the overall uncertainty: the uncertainty in the pressure drop measurement across the orifice meter during both calibration and testing and the uncertainty of the airflow standard used during calibration of the orifice meter. Five environmental parameters occurring during field measurements were considered for their effect on overall uncertainty: ambient TSP concentration, volumetric airflow rate, ambient temperature, ambient pressure, and ambient relative humidity. Of these, only ambient TSP concentration and volumetric airflow rate were found to have a strong effect on the overall uncertainty. The technique described in this paper can be applied to other measurement systems and is especially useful where there are no methods available to generate these values empirically. This work addresses measurement uncertainty of TSP samplers used in ambient conditions. Estimation of uncertainty in gravimetric measurements is of particular interest, since as ambient particulate

Public Response to a Near-Miss Nuclear Accident Scenario Varying in Causal Attributions and Outcome Uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Cui, Jinshu; Rosoff, Heather; John, Richard S

2018-05-01

Many studies have investigated public reactions to nuclear accidents. However, few studies focused on more common events when a serious accident could have happened but did not. This study evaluated public response (emotional, cognitive, and behavioral) over three phases of a near-miss nuclear accident. Simulating a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) scenario, we manipulated (1) attribution for the initial cause of the incident (software failure vs. cyber terrorist attack vs. earthquake), (2) attribution for halting the incident (fail-safe system design vs. an intervention by an individual expert vs. a chance coincidence), and (3) level of uncertainty (certain vs. uncertain) about risk of a future radiation leak after the LOCA is halted. A total of 773 respondents were sampled using a 3 × 3 × 2 between-subjects design. Results from both MANCOVA and structural equation modeling (SEM) indicate that respondents experienced more negative affect, perceived more risk, and expressed more avoidance behavioral intention when the near-miss event was initiated by an external attributed source (e.g., earthquake) compared to an internally attributed source (e.g., software failure). Similarly, respondents also indicated greater negative affect, perceived risk, and avoidance behavioral intentions when the future impact of the near-miss incident on people and the environment remained uncertain. Results from SEM analyses also suggested that negative affect predicted risk perception, and both predicted avoidance behavior. Affect, risk perception, and avoidance behavior demonstrated high stability (i.e., reliability) from one phase to the next. © 2017 Society for Risk Analysis.

Helium Mass Spectrometer Leak Detection: A Method to Quantify Total Measurement Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Mather, Janice L.; Taylor, Shawn C.

2015-01-01

In applications where leak rates of components or systems are evaluated against a leak rate requirement, the uncertainty of the measured leak rate must be included in the reported result. However, in the helium mass spectrometer leak detection method, the sensitivity, or resolution, of the instrument is often the only component of the total measurement uncertainty noted when reporting results. To address this shortfall, a measurement uncertainty analysis method was developed that includes the leak detector unit's resolution, repeatability, hysteresis, and drift, along with the uncertainty associated with the calibration standard. In a step-wise process, the method identifies the bias and precision components of the calibration standard, the measurement correction factor (K-factor), and the leak detector unit. Together these individual contributions to error are combined and the total measurement uncertainty is determined using the root-sum-square method. It was found that the precision component contributes more to the total uncertainty than the bias component, but the bias component is not insignificant. For helium mass spectrometer leak rate tests where unit sensitivity alone is not enough, a thorough evaluation of the measurement uncertainty such as the one presented herein should be performed and reported along with the leak rate value.

The grey relational approach for evaluating measurement uncertainty with poor information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Zai; Wang, Yanqing; Zhou, Weihu; Wang, Zhongyu

2015-01-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is the master document for measurement uncertainty evaluation. However, the GUM may encounter problems and does not work well when the measurement data have poor information. In most cases, poor information means a small data sample and an unknown probability distribution. In these cases, the evaluation of measurement uncertainty has become a bottleneck in practical measurement. To solve this problem, a novel method called the grey relational approach (GRA), different from the statistical theory, is proposed in this paper. The GRA does not require a large sample size or probability distribution information of the measurement data. Mathematically, the GRA can be divided into three parts. Firstly, according to grey relational analysis, the grey relational coefficients between the ideal and the practical measurement output series are obtained. Secondly, the weighted coefficients and the measurement expectation function will be acquired based on the grey relational coefficients. Finally, the measurement uncertainty is evaluated based on grey modeling. In order to validate the performance of this method, simulation experiments were performed and the evaluation results show that the GRA can keep the average error around 5%. Besides, the GRA was also compared with the grey method, the Bessel method, and the Monte Carlo method by a real stress measurement. Both the simulation experiments and real measurement show that the GRA is appropriate and effective to evaluate the measurement uncertainty with poor information. (paper)

Value assignment and uncertainty evaluation for single-element reference solutions

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha; Butler, Therese A.; Molloy, John L.; Winchester, Michael R.

2018-06-01

A Bayesian statistical procedure is proposed for value assignment and uncertainty evaluation for the mass fraction of the elemental analytes in single-element solutions distributed as NIST standard reference materials. The principal novelty that we describe is the use of information about relative differences observed historically between the measured values obtained via gravimetry and via high-performance inductively coupled plasma optical emission spectrometry, to quantify the uncertainty component attributable to between-method differences. This information is encapsulated in a prior probability distribution for the between-method uncertainty component, and it is then used, together with the information provided by current measurement data, to produce a probability distribution for the value of the measurand from which an estimate and evaluation of uncertainty are extracted using established statistical procedures.

Application of a new importance measure for parametric uncertainty in PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1997-04-01

The traditional approach to uncertainty analysis in PSA, with propagation of basic event uncertainties through the PSA model, generates as an end product the uncertainty distribution of the top event frequency. This distribution, however, is not of much value for the decision maker. Most decisions are made under uncertainty. What the decision maker needs, to enhance the decision-making quality, is an adequate uncertainty importance measure that provides the decision maker with an indication of on what basic parameters it would be most valuable - as to the quality of the decision making in the specific situation - to procure more information. This paper will describe an application of a new measure of uncertainty importance that has been developed in the ongoing joint Nordic project NKS/RAK-1:3. The measure is called ''decision oriented'' because it is defined within a decision theoretic framework. It is defined as the expected value of a certain additional information about each basic parameter, and utilizes both the system structure and the complete uncertainty distributions of the basic parameters. The measure provides the analyst and the decision maker with a diagnostic information pointing to parameters on which more information would be most valuable to procure in order to enhance the decision-making quality. This uncertainty importance measure must not be confused with the more well-known, traditional importance measures of various kinds that are used to depict the contributions of each basic event or parameter (represented by point values) to the top event frequency. In this study the new measure is practically demonstrated through a real application on the top event: Water overflow through steam generator safety valves caused by steam generator tube rupture. This application object is one of the event sequences that the fore mentioned Nordic project has analysed with an integrated approach. The project has been funded by the Swedish Nuclear Power

Past changes in the vertical distribution of ozone – Part 1: Measurement techniques, uncertainties and availability

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Hassler

2014-05-01

Full Text Available Peak stratospheric chlorofluorocarbon (CFC and other ozone depleting substance (ODS concentrations were reached in the mid- to late 1990s. Detection and attribution of the expected recovery of the stratospheric ozone layer in an atmosphere with reduced ODSs as well as efforts to understand the evolution of stratospheric ozone in the presence of increasing greenhouse gases are key current research topics. These require a critical examination of the ozone changes with an accurate knowledge of the spatial (geographical and vertical and temporal ozone response. For such an examination, it is vital that the quality of the measurements used be as high as possible and measurement uncertainties well quantified. In preparation for the 2014 United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP/World Meteorological Organization (WMO Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion, the SPARC/IO3C/IGACO-O3/NDACC (SI2N Initiative was designed to study and document changes in the global ozone profile distribution. This requires assessing long-term ozone profile data sets in regards to measurement stability and uncertainty characteristics. The ultimate goal is to establish suitability for estimating long-term ozone trends to contribute to ozone recovery studies. Some of the data sets have been improved as part of this initiative with updated versions now available. This summary presents an overview of stratospheric ozone profile measurement data sets (ground and satellite based available for ozone recovery studies. Here we document measurement techniques, spatial and temporal coverage, vertical resolution, native units and measurement uncertainties. In addition, the latest data versions are briefly described (including data version updates as well as detailing multiple retrievals when available for a given satellite instrument. Archive location information for each data set is also given.

Uncertainty in eddy covariance measurements and its application to physiological models

Science.gov (United States)

D.Y. Hollinger; A.D. Richardson; A.D. Richardson

2005-01-01

Flux data are noisy, and this uncertainty is largely due to random measurement error. Knowledge of uncertainty is essential for the statistical evaluation of modeled andmeasured fluxes, for comparison of parameters derived by fitting models to measured fluxes and in formal data-assimilation efforts. We used the difference between simultaneous measurements from two...

Measurability of quantum fields and the energy-time uncertainty relation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mensky, Mikhail B

2011-01-01

Quantum restrictions on the measurability of an electromagnetic field strength and their relevance to the energy-time uncertainty relation are considered. The minimum errors in measuring electromagnetic field strengths, as they were estimated by the author (1988) in the framework of the phenomenological method of restricted path integral (RPI), are compared with the analogous estimates found by Landau and Peierls (1931) and by Bohr and Rosenfeld (1933) with the help of certain measurement setups. RPI-based restrictions, including those of Landau and Peierls as a special case, hold for any measuring schemes meeting the strict definition of measurement. Their fundamental nature is confirmed by the fact that their associated field detectability condition has the form of the energy-time uncertainty relation. The weaker restrictions suggested by Bohr and Rosenfeld rely on an extended definition of measurement. The energy-time uncertainty relation, which is the condition for the electromagnetic field to be detectable, is applied to the analysis of how the near-field scanning microscope works. (methodological notes)

Comparison of two different methods for the uncertainty estimation of circle diameter measurements using an optical coordinate measuring machine

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Morace, Renata Erica; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard; De Chiffre, Leonardo

2005-01-01

This paper deals with the uncertainty estimation of measurements performed on optical coordinate measuring machines (CMMs). Two different methods were used to assess the uncertainty of circle diameter measurements using an optical CMM: the sensitivity analysis developing an uncertainty budget...

Uncertainty assessment in gamma spectrometric measurements of plutonium isotope ratios and age

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ramebaeck, H., E-mail: henrik.ramebeck@foi.se [Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI, Division of CBRN Defence and Security, SE-901 82 Umea (Sweden); Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Nuclear Chemistry, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden); Nygren, U.; Tovedal, A. [Swedish Defence Research Agency, FOI, Division of CBRN Defence and Security, SE-901 82 Umea (Sweden); Ekberg, C.; Skarnemark, G. [Chalmers University of Technology, Department of Chemical and Biological Engineering, Nuclear Chemistry, SE-412 96 Goeteborg (Sweden)

2012-09-15

A method for the assessment of the combined uncertainty in gamma spectrometric measurements of plutonium composition and age was evaluated. Two materials were measured. Isotope dilution inductively coupled plasma sector field mass spectrometry (ID-ICP-SFMS) was used as a reference method for comparing the results obtained with the gamma spectrometric method for one of the materials. For this material (weapons grade plutonium) the measurement results were in agreement between the two methods for all measurands. Moreover, the combined uncertainty in all isotope ratios considered in this material (R{sub Pu238/Pu239}, R{sub Pu240/Pu239}, R{sub Pu241/Pu239}, and R{sub Am241/Pu241} for age determination) were limited by counting statistics. However, the combined uncertainty for the other material (fuel grade plutonium) were limited by the response fit, which shows that the uncertainty in the response function is important to include in the combined measurement uncertainty of gamma spectrometric measurements of plutonium.

Evaluation of measuring results, statement of uncertainty in dosimeter calibrations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reich, H.

1978-05-01

The method described starts from the requirement that the quantitative statement of a measuring result in dosimetry should contain at least three figures: 1) the measured value or the best estimate of the quantity to be measured, 2) the uncertainty of this value given by a figure, which indicates a certain range around the measured value, and which is strongly linked with 3) a figure for the confidence level of this range, i.e. the probability that the (unknown) correct value is embraced by the given uncertainty range. How the figures 2) and 3) can be obtained and how they should be quoted in calibration certificates is the subject of these lectures. In addition, the means by which the method may be extended on determining the uncertainty of a measurement performed under conditions which deviate from the calibration conditt ions is briefly described. (orig.) [de

Uncertainty Quantification for Monitoring of Civil Structures from Vibration Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Döhler, Michael; Mevel, Laurent

2014-05-01

Health Monitoring of civil structures can be performed by detecting changes in the modal parameters of a structure, or more directly in the measured vibration signals. For a continuous monitoring the excitation of a structure is usually ambient, thus unknown and assumed to be noise. Hence, all estimates from the vibration measurements are realizations of random variables with inherent uncertainty due to (unknown) process and measurement noise and finite data length. In this talk, a strategy for quantifying the uncertainties of modal parameter estimates from a subspace-based system identification approach is presented and the importance of uncertainty quantification in monitoring approaches is shown. Furthermore, a damage detection method is presented, which is based on the direct comparison of the measured vibration signals without estimating modal parameters, while taking the statistical uncertainty in the signals correctly into account. The usefulness of both strategies is illustrated on data from a progressive damage action on a prestressed concrete bridge. References E. Carden and P. Fanning. Vibration based condition monitoring: a review. Structural Health Monitoring, 3(4):355-377, 2004. M. Döhler and L. Mevel. Efficient multi-order uncertainty computation for stochastic subspace identification. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 38(2):346-366, 2013. M. Döhler, L. Mevel, and F. Hille. Subspace-based damage detection under changes in the ambient excitation statistics. Mechanical Systems and Signal Processing, 45(1):207-224, 2014.

Triangular and Trapezoidal Fuzzy State Estimation with Uncertainty on Measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Sadeghi Sarcheshmah

2012-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a new method for uncertainty analysis in fuzzy state estimation is proposed. The uncertainty is expressed in measurements. Uncertainties in measurements are modelled with different fuzzy membership functions (triangular and trapezoidal. To find the fuzzy distribution of any state variable, the problem is formulated as a constrained linear programming (LP optimization. The viability of the proposed method would be verified with the ones obtained from the weighted least squares (WLS and the fuzzy state estimation (FSE in the 6-bus system and in the IEEE-14 and 30 bus system.

Instrumentation-related uncertainty of reflectance and transmittance measurements with a two-channel spectrophotometer.

Science.gov (United States)

Peest, Christian; Schinke, Carsten; Brendel, Rolf; Schmidt, Jan; Bothe, Karsten

2017-01-01

Spectrophotometers are operated in numerous fields of science and industry for a variety of applications. In order to provide confidence for the measured data, analyzing the associated uncertainty is valuable. However, the uncertainty of the measurement results is often unknown or reduced to sample-related contributions. In this paper, we describe our approach for the systematic determination of the measurement uncertainty of the commercially available two-channel spectrophotometer Agilent Cary 5000 in accordance with the Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurements. We focus on the instrumentation-related uncertainty contributions rather than the specific application and thus outline a general procedure which can be adapted for other instruments. Moreover, we discover a systematic signal deviation due to the inertia of the measurement amplifier and develop and apply a correction procedure. Thereby we increase the usable dynamic range of the instrument by more than one order of magnitude. We present methods for the quantification of the uncertainty contributions and combine them into an uncertainty budget for the device.

Uncertainty in hydrological signatures for gauged and ungauged catchments

Science.gov (United States)

Westerberg, Ida K.; Wagener, Thorsten; Coxon, Gemma; McMillan, Hilary K.; Castellarin, Attilio; Montanari, Alberto; Freer, Jim

2016-03-01

Reliable information about hydrological behavior is needed for water-resource management and scientific investigations. Hydrological signatures quantify catchment behavior as index values, and can be predicted for ungauged catchments using a regionalization procedure. The prediction reliability is affected by data uncertainties for the gauged catchments used in prediction and by uncertainties in the regionalization procedure. We quantified signature uncertainty stemming from discharge data uncertainty for 43 UK catchments and propagated these uncertainties in signature regionalization, while accounting for regionalization uncertainty with a weighted-pooling-group approach. Discharge uncertainty was estimated using Monte Carlo sampling of multiple feasible rating curves. For each sampled rating curve, a discharge time series was calculated and used in deriving the gauged signature uncertainty distribution. We found that the gauged uncertainty varied with signature type, local measurement conditions and catchment behavior, with the highest uncertainties (median relative uncertainty ±30-40% across all catchments) for signatures measuring high- and low-flow magnitude and dynamics. Our regionalization method allowed assessing the role and relative magnitudes of the gauged and regionalized uncertainty sources in shaping the signature uncertainty distributions predicted for catchments treated as ungauged. We found that (1) if the gauged uncertainties were neglected there was a clear risk of overconditioning the regionalization inference, e.g., by attributing catchment differences resulting from gauged uncertainty to differences in catchment behavior, and (2) uncertainty in the regionalization results was lower for signatures measuring flow distribution (e.g., mean flow) than flow dynamics (e.g., autocorrelation), and for average flows (and then high flows) compared to low flows.

Propagation of nuclear data uncertainties for fusion power measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sjöstrand Henrik

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Neutron measurements using neutron activation systems are an essential part of the diagnostic system at large fusion machines such as JET and ITER. Nuclear data is used to infer the neutron yield. Consequently, high-quality nuclear data is essential for the proper determination of the neutron yield and fusion power. However, uncertainties due to nuclear data are not fully taken into account in uncertainty analysis for neutron yield calibrations using activation foils. This paper investigates the neutron yield uncertainty due to nuclear data using the so-called Total Monte Carlo Method. The work is performed using a detailed MCNP model of the JET fusion machine; the uncertainties due to the cross-sections and angular distributions in JET structural materials, as well as the activation cross-sections in the activation foils, are analysed. It is found that a significant contribution to the neutron yield uncertainty can come from uncertainties in the nuclear data.

Uncertainty analysis of thermal quantities measurement in a centrifugal compressor

Science.gov (United States)

Hurda, Lukáš; Matas, Richard

2017-09-01

Compressor performance characteristics evaluation process based on the measurement of pressure, temperature and other quantities is examined to find uncertainties for directly measured and derived quantities. CFD is used as a tool to quantify the influences of different sources of uncertainty of measurements for single- and multi-thermocouple total temperature probes. The heat conduction through the body of the thermocouple probe and the heat-up of the air in the intake piping are the main phenomena of interest.

SU-G-BRB-14: Uncertainty of Radiochromic Film Based Relative Dose Measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Devic, S; Tomic, N; DeBlois, F; Seuntjens, J [McGill University, Montreal, QC (Canada); Lewis, D [RCF Consulting, LLC, Monroe, CT (United States); Aldelaijan, S [King Faisal Specialist Hospital & Research Center, Riyadh (Saudi Arabia)

2016-06-15

Purpose: Due to inherently non-linear dose response, measurement of relative dose distribution with radiochromic film requires measurement of absolute dose using a calibration curve following previously established reference dosimetry protocol. On the other hand, a functional form that converts the inherently non-linear dose response curve of the radiochromic film dosimetry system into linear one has been proposed recently [Devic et al, Med. Phys. 39 4850–4857 (2012)]. However, there is a question what would be the uncertainty of such measured relative dose. Methods: If the relative dose distribution is determined going through the reference dosimetry system (conversion of the response by using calibration curve into absolute dose) the total uncertainty of such determined relative dose will be calculated by summing in quadrature total uncertainties of doses measured at a given and at the reference point. On the other hand, if the relative dose is determined using linearization method, the new response variable is calculated as ζ=a(netOD)n/ln(netOD). In this case, the total uncertainty in relative dose will be calculated by summing in quadrature uncertainties for a new response function (σζ) for a given and the reference point. Results: Except at very low doses, where the measurement uncertainty dominates, the total relative dose uncertainty is less than 1% for the linear response method as compared to almost 2% uncertainty level for the reference dosimetry method. The result is not surprising having in mind that the total uncertainty of the reference dose method is dominated by the fitting uncertainty, which is mitigated in the case of linearization method. Conclusion: Linearization of the radiochromic film dose response provides a convenient and a more precise method for relative dose measurements as it does not require reference dosimetry and creation of calibration curve. However, the linearity of the newly introduced function must be verified. Dave Lewis

Attribute measurement systems prototypes and equipment in the United States

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langner, D.C.; Landry, R.P.; Hsue, S.-T.; MacArthur, D.W.; Mayo, D.R.; Smith, M.K.; Nicholas, N.J.; Whiteson, R.

2001-01-01

Since the fall of 1997, the United States has been developing prototypical attribute verification technology for potential use by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) under the Trilateral Initiative. The first attribute measurement equipment demonstration took place in December 1997 at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. This demonstration led to a series of joint Russian Federatioin/US/IAEA technical discussions that focused on attribute measurement technology that could be applied to plutonium bearing items having classified characteristics. A first prototype attribute verification system with an information barrier was demonstrated at a Trilateral Technical Workshop in June 1999 at Los Alamos. This prototype nourished further fruitful discussions between the three parties that has in turn led to the documents discussed in a previous paper. Prototype development has continued in the US, under other initiatives, using an integrated approach that includes the Trilatleral Initiative. Specifically for the Trilateral Initiative, US development has turned to some peripheral equipment that would support verifications by the IAEA. This equipment includes an authentication tool for measurement systems with information barriers and in situ probes that would facilitate inspections by reducing the need to move material out of storage locations for reverification. In this paper, we will first summarize the development of attribute verification measurement system technology in the US and then report on the status of the development of other equipment to support the Trilateral Initiative.

Measurement uncertainty of liquid chromatographic analyses visualized by Ishikawa diagrams.

Science.gov (United States)

Meyer, Veronika R

2003-09-01

Ishikawa, or cause-and-effect diagrams, help to visualize the parameters that influence a chromatographic analysis. Therefore, they facilitate the set up of the uncertainty budget of the analysis, which can then be expressed in mathematical form. If the uncertainty is calculated as the Gaussian sum of all uncertainty parameters, it is necessary to quantitate them all, a task that is usually not practical. The other possible approach is to use the intermediate precision as a base for the uncertainty calculation. In this case, it is at least necessary to consider the uncertainty of the purity of the reference material in addition to the precision data. The Ishikawa diagram is then very simple, and so is the uncertainty calculation. This advantage is given by the loss of information about the parameters that influence the measurement uncertainty.

Impact of Pitot tube calibration on the uncertainty of water flow rate measurement

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira Buscarini, Icaro; Costa Barsaglini, Andre; Saiz Jabardo, Paulo Jose; Massami Taira, Nilson; Nader, Gilder

2015-10-01

Water utility companies often use Cole type Pitot tubes to map velocity profiles and thus measure flow rate. Frequent monitoring and measurement of flow rate is an important step in identifying leaks and other types of losses. In Brazil losses as high as 42% are common and in some places even higher values are found. When using Cole type Pitot tubes to measure the flow rate, the uncertainty of the calibration coefficient (Cd) is a major component of the overall flow rate measurement uncertainty. A common practice is to employ the usual value Cd = 0.869, in use since Cole proposed his Pitot tube in 1896. Analysis of 414 calibrations of Cole type Pitot tubes show that Cd varies considerably and values as high 0.020 for the expanded uncertainty are common. Combined with other uncertainty sources, the overall velocity measurement uncertainty is 0.02, increasing flowrate measurement uncertainty by 1.5% which, for the Sao Paulo metropolitan area (Brazil) corresponds to 3.5 × 107 m3/year.

Universal uncertainty principle in the measurement operator formalism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozawa, Masanao

2005-01-01

Heisenberg's uncertainty principle has been understood to set a limitation on measurements; however, the long-standing mathematical formulation established by Heisenberg, Kennard, and Robertson does not allow such an interpretation. Recently, a new relation was found to give a universally valid relation between noise and disturbance in general quantum measurements, and it has become clear that the new relation plays a role of the first principle to derive various quantum limits on measurement and information processing in a unified treatment. This paper examines the above development on the noise-disturbance uncertainty principle in the model-independent approach based on the measurement operator formalism, which is widely accepted to describe a class of generalized measurements in the field of quantum information. We obtain explicit formulae for the noise and disturbance of measurements given by measurement operators, and show that projective measurements do not satisfy the Heisenberg-type noise-disturbance relation that is typical in the gamma-ray microscope thought experiments. We also show that the disturbance on a Pauli operator of a projective measurement of another Pauli operator constantly equals √2, and examine how this measurement violates the Heisenberg-type relation but satisfies the new noise-disturbance relation

Examples of measurement uncertainty evaluations in accordance with the revised GUM

Science.gov (United States)

Runje, B.; Horvatic, A.; Alar, V.; Medic, S.; Bosnjakovic, A.

2016-11-01

The paper presents examples of the evaluation of uncertainty components in accordance with the current and revised Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM). In accordance with the proposed revision of the GUM a Bayesian approach was conducted for both type A and type B evaluations.The law of propagation of uncertainty (LPU) and the law of propagation of distribution applied through the Monte Carlo method, (MCM) were used to evaluate associated standard uncertainties, expanded uncertainties and coverage intervals. Furthermore, the influence of the non-Gaussian dominant input quantity and asymmetric distribution of the output quantity y on the evaluation of measurement uncertainty was analyzed. In the case when the probabilistically coverage interval is not symmetric, the coverage interval for the probability P is estimated from the experimental probability density function using the Monte Carlo method. Key highlights of the proposed revision of the GUM were analyzed through a set of examples.

Assessing Precision in Conventional Field Measurements of Individual Tree Attributes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ville Luoma

2017-02-01

Full Text Available Forest resource information has a hierarchical structure: individual tree attributes are summed at the plot level and then in turn, plot-level estimates are used to derive stand or large-area estimates of forest resources. Due to this hierarchy, it is imperative that individual tree attributes are measured with accuracy and precision. With the widespread use of different measurement tools, it is also important to understand the expected degree of precision associated with these measurements. The most prevalent tree attributes measured in the field are tree species, stem diameter-at-breast-height (dbh, and tree height. For dbh and height, the most commonly used measuring devices are calipers and clinometers, respectively. The aim of our study was to characterize the precision of individual tree dbh and height measurements in boreal forest conditions when using calipers and clinometers. The data consisted of 319 sample trees at a study area in Evo, southern Finland. The sample trees were measured independently by four trained mensurationists. The standard deviation in tree dbh and height measurements was 0.3 cm (1.5% and 0.5 m (2.9%, respectively. Precision was also assessed by tree species and tree size classes; however, there were no statistically significant differences between the mensurationists for dbh or height measurements. Our study offers insights into the expected precision of tree dbh and height as measured with the most commonly used devices. These results are important when using sample plot data in forest inventory applications, especially now, at a time when new tree attribute measurement techniques based on remote sensing are being developed and compared to the conventional caliper and clinometer measurements.

Uncertainty Measures of Regional Flood Frequency Estimators

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rosbjerg, Dan; Madsen, Henrik

1995-01-01

Regional flood frequency models have different assumptions regarding homogeneity and inter-site independence. Thus, uncertainty measures of T-year event estimators are not directly comparable. However, having chosen a particular method, the reliability of the estimate should always be stated, e...

Establishing and maintaining a measurement uncertainty programme at the RPII dosimetry and calibration service

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Spain, D.; Currivan, L.; Fitzgerald, H.; Pollard, D.

2005-01-01

Full text: At the Dosimetry and Calibration Service of the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland (RPII) approximately 70,000 thermoluminescent dosemeters (TLDs) are issued each year to monitor occupationally exposed workers in Ireland. In addition the service offers a calibration service for radiation survey meters, contamination monitors and electronic personal dosemeters. In order to meet the requirements of ISO/IEC 17025, it is necessary to quantify the uncertainty of measurement using well defined concepts and to maintain an up to date estimate. In this work it is shown how the measurement uncertainty in the Dosimetry and Calibration Service has been estimated. When estimating the uncertainty of measurement, all uncertainty components which are of importance in the given situation are taken into account. The combined uncertainty of the system is determined by considering a number of systematic and random errors. The analysis will include assumptions made and these have been documented and justified. Components of uncertainty were determined in accordance with such documents as IEC 61066, Guide to Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement, and the National Physical Laboratory Measurement Good Practice Guide No. 11, as appropriate. Results of intercomparisons are also presented, which adds confidence to the uncertainty estimate. Although a great deal of work is involved is estimating uncertainty in both laboratories it is felt that a reasonable estimate of measurement uncertainty has been achieved given the available information. Furthermore, in keeping with the laboratory's commitment to continuous improvement, it is necessary to evaluate periodically the measurement uncertainties associated with the relevant procedures and a programme for the future is outlined. (author)

Comparison between bottom-up and top-down approaches in the estimation of measurement uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Jun Hyung; Choi, Jee-Hye; Youn, Jae Saeng; Cha, Young Joo; Song, Woonheung; Park, Ae Ja

2015-06-01

Measurement uncertainty is a metrological concept to quantify the variability of measurement results. There are two approaches to estimate measurement uncertainty. In this study, we sought to provide practical and detailed examples of the two approaches and compare the bottom-up and top-down approaches to estimating measurement uncertainty. We estimated measurement uncertainty of the concentration of glucose according to CLSI EP29-A guideline. Two different approaches were used. First, we performed a bottom-up approach. We identified the sources of uncertainty and made an uncertainty budget and assessed the measurement functions. We determined the uncertainties of each element and combined them. Second, we performed a top-down approach using internal quality control (IQC) data for 6 months. Then, we estimated and corrected systematic bias using certified reference material of glucose (NIST SRM 965b). The expanded uncertainties at the low glucose concentration (5.57 mmol/L) by the bottom-up approach and top-down approaches were ±0.18 mmol/L and ±0.17 mmol/L, respectively (all k=2). Those at the high glucose concentration (12.77 mmol/L) by the bottom-up and top-down approaches were ±0.34 mmol/L and ±0.36 mmol/L, respectively (all k=2). We presented practical and detailed examples for estimating measurement uncertainty by the two approaches. The uncertainties by the bottom-up approach were quite similar to those by the top-down approach. Thus, we demonstrated that the two approaches were approximately equivalent and interchangeable and concluded that clinical laboratories could determine measurement uncertainty by the simpler top-down approach.

Utilization of Software Tools for Uncertainty Calculation in Measurement Science Education

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zangl, Hubert; Zine-Zine, Mariam; Hoermaier, Klaus

2015-01-01

Despite its importance, uncertainty is often neglected by practitioners in the design of system even in safety critical applications. Thus, problems arising from uncertainty may only be identified late in the design process and thus lead to additional costs. Although there exists numerous tools to support uncertainty calculation, reasons for limited usage in early design phases may be low awareness of the existence of the tools and insufficient training in the practical application. We present a teaching philosophy that addresses uncertainty from the very beginning of teaching measurement science, in particular with respect to the utilization of software tools. The developed teaching material is based on the GUM method and makes use of uncertainty toolboxes in the simulation environment. Based on examples in measurement science education we discuss advantages and disadvantages of the proposed teaching philosophy and include feedback from students

Uncertainty of the calibration factor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

According to present definitions, an error is the difference between a measured value and the ''true'' value. Thus an error has both a numerical value and a sign. In contrast, the uncertainly associated with a measurement is a parameter that characterizes the dispersion of the values ''that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand''. This parameter is normally an estimated standard deviation. An uncertainty, therefore, has no known sign and is usually assumed to be symmetrical. It is a measure of our lack of exact knowledge, after all recognized ''systematic'' effects have been eliminated by applying appropriate corrections. If errors were known exactly, the true value could be determined and there would be no problem left. In reality, errors are estimated in the best possible way and corrections made for them. Therefore, after application of all known corrections, errors need no further consideration (their expectation value being zero) and the only quantities of interest are uncertainties. 3 refs, 2 figs

Two-point method uncertainty during control and measurement of cylindrical element diameters

Science.gov (United States)

Glukhov, V. I.; Shalay, V. V.; Radev, H.

2018-04-01

The topic of the article is devoted to the urgent problem of the reliability of technical products geometric specifications measurements. The purpose of the article is to improve the quality of parts linear sizes control by the two-point measurement method. The article task is to investigate methodical extended uncertainties in measuring cylindrical element linear sizes. The investigation method is a geometric modeling of the element surfaces shape and location deviations in a rectangular coordinate system. The studies were carried out for elements of various service use, taking into account their informativeness, corresponding to the kinematic pairs classes in theoretical mechanics and the number of constrained degrees of freedom in the datum element function. Cylindrical elements with informativity of 4, 2, 1 and θ (zero) were investigated. The uncertainties estimation of in two-point measurements was made by comparing the results of of linear dimensions measurements with the functional diameters maximum and minimum of the element material. Methodical uncertainty is formed when cylindrical elements with maximum informativeness have shape deviations of the cut and the curvature types. Methodical uncertainty is formed by measuring the element average size for all types of shape deviations. The two-point measurement method cannot take into account the location deviations of a dimensional element, so its use for elements with informativeness less than the maximum creates unacceptable methodical uncertainties in measurements of the maximum, minimum and medium linear dimensions. Similar methodical uncertainties also exist in the arbitration control of the linear dimensions of the cylindrical elements by limiting two-point gauges.

NIS method for uncertainty estimation of airborne sound insulation measurement in field

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

El-Basheer Tarek M.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In structures, airborne sound insulation is utilized to characterize the acoustic nature of barriers between rooms. However, the assessment of sound insulation index is once in a while troublesome or indeed, even questionable, both in field and laboratory measurements, notwithstanding the way that there are some unified measurement methodology indicated in the ISO 140 series standards. There are issues with the reproducibility and repeatability of the measurement results. A few troubles might be brought on by non-diffuse acoustic fields, non-uniform reverberation time, or blunders of the reverberation time measurements. Some minor issues are additionally postured by flanking transmission. In this paper, investigation of the uncertainties of the above specified measurement parts and their impact on the consolidated uncertainty in 1/3-octave frequency band. The total measurement uncertainty model contributes several different partial uncertainties, which are evaluated by the method of type A or type B. Also, the determination of the sound reduction index decided by ISO 140-4 has been performed.

Using measurement uncertainty in decision-making and conformity assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Pendrill, L. R.

2014-08-01

Measurements often provide an objective basis for making decisions, perhaps when assessing whether a product conforms to requirements or whether one set of measurements differs significantly from another. There is increasing appreciation of the need to account for the role of measurement uncertainty when making decisions, so that a ‘fit-for-purpose’ level of measurement effort can be set prior to performing a given task. Better mutual understanding between the metrologist and those ordering such tasks about the significance and limitations of the measurements when making decisions of conformance will be especially useful. Decisions of conformity are, however, currently made in many important application areas, such as when addressing the grand challenges (energy, health, etc), without a clear and harmonized basis for sharing the risks that arise from measurement uncertainty between the consumer, supplier and third parties. In reviewing, in this paper, the state of the art of the use of uncertainty evaluation in conformity assessment and decision-making, two aspects in particular—the handling of qualitative observations and of impact—are considered key to bringing more order to the present diverse rules of thumb of more or less arbitrary limits on measurement uncertainty and percentage risk in the field. (i) Decisions of conformity can be made on a more or less quantitative basis—referred in statistical acceptance sampling as by ‘variable’ or by ‘attribute’ (i.e. go/no-go decisions)—depending on the resources available or indeed whether a full quantitative judgment is needed or not. There is, therefore, an intimate relation between decision-making, relating objects to each other in terms of comparative or merely qualitative concepts, and nominal and ordinal properties. (ii) Adding measures of impact, such as the costs of incorrect decisions, can give more objective and more readily appreciated bases for decisions for all parties concerned. Such

Measurements of fusion neutron yields by neutron activation technique: Uncertainty due to the uncertainty on activation cross-sections

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stankunas, Gediminas, E-mail: gediminas.stankunas@lei.lt [Lithuanian Energy Institute, Laboratory of Nuclear Installation Safety, Breslaujos str. 3, LT-44403 Kaunas (Lithuania); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Batistoni, Paola [ENEA, Via E. Fermi, 45, 00044 Frascati, Rome (Italy); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom); Sjöstrand, Henrik; Conroy, Sean [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Uppsala University, PO Box 516, SE-75120 Uppsala (Sweden); EUROfusion Consortium, JET, Culham Science Centre, Abingdon OX14 3DB (United Kingdom)

2015-07-11

The neutron activation technique is routinely used in fusion experiments to measure the neutron yields. This paper investigates the uncertainty on these measurements as due to the uncertainties on dosimetry and activation reactions. For this purpose, activation cross-sections were taken from the International Reactor Dosimetry and Fusion File (IRDFF-v1.05) in 640 groups ENDF-6 format for several reactions of interest for both 2.5 and 14 MeV neutrons. Activation coefficients (reaction rates) have been calculated using the neutron flux spectra at JET vacuum vessel, both for DD and DT plasmas, calculated by MCNP in the required 640-energy group format. The related uncertainties for the JET neutron spectra are evaluated as well using the covariance data available in the library. These uncertainties are in general small, but not negligible when high accuracy is required in the determination of the fusion neutron yields.

A new computational method of a moment-independent uncertainty importance measure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Qiao; Homma, Toshimitsu

2009-01-01

For a risk assessment model, the uncertainty in input parameters is propagated through the model and leads to the uncertainty in the model output. The study of how the uncertainty in the output of a model can be apportioned to the uncertainty in the model inputs is the job of sensitivity analysis. Saltelli [Sensitivity analysis for importance assessment. Risk Analysis 2002;22(3):579-90] pointed out that a good sensitivity indicator should be global, quantitative and model free. Borgonovo [A new uncertainty importance measure. Reliability Engineering and System Safety 2007;92(6):771-84] further extended these three requirements by adding the fourth feature, moment-independence, and proposed a new sensitivity measure, δ i . It evaluates the influence of the input uncertainty on the entire output distribution without reference to any specific moment of the model output. In this paper, a new computational method of δ i is proposed. It is conceptually simple and easier to implement. The feasibility of this new method is proved by applying it to two examples.

Guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathew, Kattathu Joseph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-10-19

The enabling objectives of this presentation are to: Provide a working knowledge of the ISO GUM method to estimation of uncertainties in safeguards measurements; Introduce GUM terminology; Provide brief historical background of the GUM methodology; Introduce GUM Workbench software; Isotope ratio measurements by MS will be discussed in the next session.

Impact of measurement uncertainty from experimental load distribution factors on bridge load rating

Science.gov (United States)

Gangone, Michael V.; Whelan, Matthew J.

2018-03-01

Load rating and testing of highway bridges is important in determining the capacity of the structure. Experimental load rating utilizes strain transducers placed at critical locations of the superstructure to measure normal strains. These strains are then used in computing diagnostic performance measures (neutral axis of bending, load distribution factor) and ultimately a load rating. However, it has been shown that experimentally obtained strain measurements contain uncertainties associated with the accuracy and precision of the sensor and sensing system. These uncertainties propagate through to the diagnostic indicators that in turn transmit into the load rating calculation. This paper will analyze the effect that measurement uncertainties have on the experimental load rating results of a 3 span multi-girder/stringer steel and concrete bridge. The focus of this paper will be limited to the uncertainty associated with the experimental distribution factor estimate. For the testing discussed, strain readings were gathered at the midspan of each span of both exterior girders and the center girder. Test vehicles of known weight were positioned at specified locations on each span to generate maximum strain response for each of the five girders. The strain uncertainties were used in conjunction with a propagation formula developed by the authors to determine the standard uncertainty in the distribution factor estimates. This distribution factor uncertainty is then introduced into the load rating computation to determine the possible range of the load rating. The results show the importance of understanding measurement uncertainty in experimental load testing.

Disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability and Bayesian treatment of uncensored results

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Strom, Daniel J.; Joyce, Kevin E.; Maclellan, Jay A.; Watson, David J.; Lynch, Timothy P.; Antonio, Cheryl L.; Birchall, Alan; Anderson, Kevin K.; Zharov, Peter

2012-01-01

In making low-level radioactivity measurements of populations, it is commonly observed that a substantial portion of net results are negative. Furthermore, the observed variance of the measurement results arises from a combination of measurement uncertainty and population variability. This paper presents a method for disaggregating measurement uncertainty from population variability to produce a probability density function (PDF) of possibly true results. To do this, simple, justifiable, and reasonable assumptions are made about the relationship of the measurements to the measurands (the 'true values'). The measurements are assumed to be unbiased, that is, that their average value is the average of the measurands. Using traditional estimates of each measurement's uncertainty to disaggregate population variability from measurement uncertainty, a PDF of measurands for the population is produced. Then, using Bayes's theorem, the same assumptions, and all the data from the population of individuals, a prior PDF is computed for each individual's measurand. These PDFs are non-negative, and their average is equal to the average of the measurement results for the population. The uncertainty in these Bayesian posterior PDFs is all Berkson with no remaining classical component. The methods are applied to baseline bioassay data from the Hanford site. The data include 90Sr urinalysis measurements on 128 people, 137Cs in vivo measurements on 5,337 people, and 239Pu urinalysis measurements on 3,270 people. The method produces excellent results for the 90Sr and 137Cs measurements, since there are nonzero concentrations of these global fallout radionuclides in people who have not been occupationally exposed. The method does not work for the 239Pu measurements in non-occupationally exposed people because the population average is essentially zero.

A systematic approach to the modelling of measurements for uncertainty evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sommer, K D; Weckenmann, A; Siebert, B R L

2005-01-01

The evaluation of measurement uncertainty is based on both, the knowledge about the measuring process and the quantities which influence the measurement result. The knowledge about the measuring process is represented by the model equation which expresses the interrelation between the measurand and the input quantities. Therefore, the modelling of the measurement is a key element of modern uncertainty evaluation. A modelling concept has been developed that is based on the idea of the measuring chain. It gets on with only a few generic model structures. From this concept, a practical stepwise procedure has been derived

Uncertainty analysis of NDA waste measurements using computer simulations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Yoon, W.Y.; Meachum, T.R.

2000-01-01

Uncertainty assessments for nondestructive radioassay (NDA) systems for nuclear waste are complicated by factors extraneous to the measurement systems themselves. Most notably, characteristics of the waste matrix (e.g., homogeneity) and radioactive source material (e.g., particle size distribution) can have great effects on measured mass values. Under these circumstances, characterizing the waste population is as important as understanding the measurement system in obtaining realistic uncertainty values. When extraneous waste characteristics affect measurement results, the uncertainty results are waste-type specific. The goal becomes to assess the expected bias and precision for the measurement of a randomly selected item from the waste population of interest. Standard propagation-of-errors methods for uncertainty analysis can be very difficult to implement in the presence of significant extraneous effects on the measurement system. An alternative approach that naturally includes the extraneous effects is as follows: (1) Draw a random sample of items from the population of interest; (2) Measure the items using the NDA system of interest; (3) Establish the true quantity being measured using a gold standard technique; and (4) Estimate bias by deriving a statistical regression model comparing the measurements on the system of interest to the gold standard values; similar regression techniques for modeling the standard deviation of the difference values gives the estimated precision. Actual implementation of this method is often impractical. For example, a true gold standard confirmation measurement may not exist. A more tractable implementation is obtained by developing numerical models for both the waste material and the measurement system. A random sample of simulated waste containers generated by the waste population model serves as input to the measurement system model. This approach has been developed and successfully applied to assessing the quantity of

Uncertainty in relative energy resolution measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Volkovitsky, P.; Yen, J.; Cumberland, L.

2007-01-01

We suggest a new method for the determination of the detector relative energy resolution and its uncertainty based on spline approximation of experimental spectra and a statistical bootstrapping procedure. The proposed method is applied to the spectra obtained with NaI(Tl) scintillating detectors and 137 Cs sources. The spectrum histogram with background subtracted channel-by-channel is modeled by cubic spline approximation. The relative energy resolution (which is also known as pulse height resolution and energy resolution), defined as the full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) divided by the value of peak centroid, is calculated using the intercepts of the spline curve with the line of the half peak height. The value of the peak height is determined as the point where the value of the derivative goes to zero. The residuals, which are normalized over the square root of counts in a given bin (y-coordinate), obey the standard Gaussian distribution. The values of these residuals are randomly re-assigned to a different set of y-coordinates where a new 'pseudo-experimental' data set is obtained after 'de-normalization' of the old values. For this new data set a new spline approximation is found and the whole procedure is repeated several hundred times, until the standard deviation of relative energy resolution becomes stabilized. The standard deviation of relative energy resolutions calculated for each 'pseudo-experimental' data set (bootstrap uncertainty) is considered to be an estimate for relative energy resolution uncertainty. It is also shown that the relative bootstrap uncertainty is proportional to, and generally only two to three times bigger than, 1/√(N tot ), which is the relative statistical count uncertainty (N tot is the total number of counts under the peak). The newly suggested method is also applicable to other radiation and particle detectors, not only for relative energy resolution, but also for any of the other parameters in a measured spectrum, like

Particle image velocimetry correlation signal-to-noise ratio metrics and measurement uncertainty quantification

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xue, Zhenyu; Charonko, John J; Vlachos, Pavlos P

2014-01-01

In particle image velocimetry (PIV) the measurement signal is contained in the recorded intensity of the particle image pattern superimposed on a variety of noise sources. The signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) strength governs the resulting PIV cross correlation and ultimately the accuracy and uncertainty of the resulting PIV measurement. Hence we posit that correlation SNR metrics calculated from the correlation plane can be used to quantify the quality of the correlation and the resulting uncertainty of an individual measurement. In this paper we extend the original work by Charonko and Vlachos and present a framework for evaluating the correlation SNR using a set of different metrics, which in turn are used to develop models for uncertainty estimation. Several corrections have been applied in this work. The SNR metrics and corresponding models presented herein are expanded to be applicable to both standard and filtered correlations by applying a subtraction of the minimum correlation value to remove the effect of the background image noise. In addition, the notion of a ‘valid’ measurement is redefined with respect to the correlation peak width in order to be consistent with uncertainty quantification principles and distinct from an ‘outlier’ measurement. Finally the type and significance of the error distribution function is investigated. These advancements lead to more robust and reliable uncertainty estimation models compared with the original work by Charonko and Vlachos. The models are tested against both synthetic benchmark data as well as experimental measurements. In this work, U 68.5 uncertainties are estimated at the 68.5% confidence level while U 95 uncertainties are estimated at 95% confidence level. For all cases the resulting calculated coverage factors approximate the expected theoretical confidence intervals, thus demonstrating the applicability of these new models for estimation of uncertainty for individual PIV measurements. (paper)

Particle image velocimetry correlation signal-to-noise ratio metrics and measurement uncertainty quantification

Science.gov (United States)

Xue, Zhenyu; Charonko, John J.; Vlachos, Pavlos P.

2014-11-01

In particle image velocimetry (PIV) the measurement signal is contained in the recorded intensity of the particle image pattern superimposed on a variety of noise sources. The signal-to-noise-ratio (SNR) strength governs the resulting PIV cross correlation and ultimately the accuracy and uncertainty of the resulting PIV measurement. Hence we posit that correlation SNR metrics calculated from the correlation plane can be used to quantify the quality of the correlation and the resulting uncertainty of an individual measurement. In this paper we extend the original work by Charonko and Vlachos and present a framework for evaluating the correlation SNR using a set of different metrics, which in turn are used to develop models for uncertainty estimation. Several corrections have been applied in this work. The SNR metrics and corresponding models presented herein are expanded to be applicable to both standard and filtered correlations by applying a subtraction of the minimum correlation value to remove the effect of the background image noise. In addition, the notion of a ‘valid’ measurement is redefined with respect to the correlation peak width in order to be consistent with uncertainty quantification principles and distinct from an ‘outlier’ measurement. Finally the type and significance of the error distribution function is investigated. These advancements lead to more robust and reliable uncertainty estimation models compared with the original work by Charonko and Vlachos. The models are tested against both synthetic benchmark data as well as experimental measurements. In this work, {{U}68.5} uncertainties are estimated at the 68.5% confidence level while {{U}95} uncertainties are estimated at 95% confidence level. For all cases the resulting calculated coverage factors approximate the expected theoretical confidence intervals, thus demonstrating the applicability of these new models for estimation of uncertainty for individual PIV measurements.

Detailed modeling of the statistical uncertainty of Thomson scattering measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morton, L A; Parke, E; Hartog, D J Den

2013-01-01

The uncertainty of electron density and temperature fluctuation measurements is determined by statistical uncertainty introduced by multiple noise sources. In order to quantify these uncertainties precisely, a simple but comprehensive model was made of the noise sources in the MST Thomson scattering system and of the resulting variance in the integrated scattered signals. The model agrees well with experimental and simulated results. The signal uncertainties are then used by our existing Bayesian analysis routine to find the most likely electron temperature and density, with confidence intervals. In the model, photonic noise from scattered light and plasma background light is multiplied by the noise enhancement factor (F) of the avalanche photodiode (APD). Electronic noise from the amplifier and digitizer is added. The amplifier response function shapes the signal and induces correlation in the noise. The data analysis routine fits a characteristic pulse to the digitized signals from the amplifier, giving the integrated scattered signals. A finite digitization rate loses information and can cause numerical integration error. We find a formula for the variance of the scattered signals in terms of the background and pulse amplitudes, and three calibration constants. The constants are measured easily under operating conditions, resulting in accurate estimation of the scattered signals' uncertainty. We measure F ≈ 3 for our APDs, in agreement with other measurements for similar APDs. This value is wavelength-independent, simplifying analysis. The correlated noise we observe is reproduced well using a Gaussian response function. Numerical integration error can be made negligible by using an interpolated characteristic pulse, allowing digitization rates as low as the detector bandwidth. The effect of background noise is also determined

High frequency electric field levels: An example of determination of measurement uncertainty for broadband measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vulević Branislav

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Determining high frequency electromagnetic field levels in urban areas represents a very complex task, having in mind the exponential growth of the number of sources embodied in public cellular telephony systems in the past twenty years. The main goal of this paper is a representation of a practical solution in the evaluation of measurement uncertainty for in-situ measurements in the case of spatial averaging. An example of the estimation of the uncertainty for electric field strength broadband measurements in the frequency range from 3 MHz to 18 GHz is presented.

Status of uncertainty assessment in k0-NAA measurement. Anything still missing?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Borut Smodis; Tinkara Bucar

2014-01-01

Several approaches to quantifying measurement uncertainty in k 0 -based neutron activation analysis (k 0 -NAA) are reviewed, comprising the original approach, the spreadsheet approach, the dedicated computer program involving analytical calculations and the two k 0 -NAA programs available on the market. Two imperfectness in the dedicated programs are identified, their impact assessed and possible improvements presented for a concrete experimental situation. The status of uncertainty assessment in k 0 -NAA is discussed and steps for improvement are recommended. It is concluded that the present magnitude of measurement uncertainty should further be improved by making additional efforts in reducing uncertainties of the relevant nuclear constants used. (author)

The uncertainty in physical measurements an introduction to data analysis in the physics laboratory

CERN Document Server

Fornasini, Paolo

2008-01-01

All measurements of physical quantities are affected by uncertainty. Understanding the origin of uncertainty, evaluating its extent and suitably taking it into account in data analysis is essential for assessing the degree of accuracy of phenomenological relationships and physical laws in both scientific research and technological applications. The Uncertainty in Physical Measurements: An Introduction to Data Analysis in the Physics Laboratory presents an introduction to uncertainty and to some of the most common procedures of data analysis. This book will serve the reader well by filling the gap between tutorial textbooks and highly specialized monographs. The book is divided into three parts. The first part is a phenomenological introduction to measurement and uncertainty: properties of instruments, different causes and corresponding expressions of uncertainty, histograms and distributions, and unified expression of uncertainty. The second part contains an introduction to probability theory, random variable...

Uncertainty estimation of shape and roughness measurement

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Morel, M.A.A.

2006-01-01

One of the most common techniques to measure a surface or form is mechanical probing. Although used since the early 30s of the 20th century, a method to calculate a task specific uncertainty budget was not yet devised. Guidelines and statistical estimates are common in certain cases but an

Development of Uncertainty Quantification Method for MIR-PIV Measurement using BOS Technique

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Seong, Jee Hyun; Song, Min Seop; Kim, Eung Soo

2014-01-01

Matching Index of Refraction (MIR) is frequently used for obtaining high quality PIV measurement data. ven small distortion by unmatched refraction index of test section can result in uncertainty problems. In this context, it is desirable to construct new concept for checking errors of MIR and following uncertainty of PIV measurement. This paper proposes a couple of experimental concept and relative results. This study developed an MIR uncertainty quantification method for PIV measurement using SBOS technique. From the reference data of the BOS, the reliable SBOS experiment procedure was constructed. Then with the combination of SBOS technique with MIR-PIV technique, velocity vector and refraction displacement vector field was measured simultaneously. MIR errors are calculated through mathematical equation, in which PIV and SBOS data are put. These errors are also verified by another BOS experiment. Finally, with the applying of calculated MIR-PIV uncertainty, correct velocity vector field can be obtained regardless of MIR errors

Invited Review Article: Measurement uncertainty of linear phase-stepping algorithms

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hack, Erwin [EMPA, Laboratory Electronics/Metrology/Reliability, Ueberlandstrasse 129, CH-8600 Duebendorf (Switzerland); Burke, Jan [Australian Centre for Precision Optics, CSIRO (Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation) Materials Science and Engineering, P.O. Box 218, Lindfield, NSW 2070 (Australia)

2011-06-15

Phase retrieval techniques are widely used in optics, imaging and electronics. Originating in signal theory, they were introduced to interferometry around 1970. Over the years, many robust phase-stepping techniques have been developed that minimize specific experimental influence quantities such as phase step errors or higher harmonic components of the signal. However, optimizing a technique for a specific influence quantity can compromise its performance with regard to others. We present a consistent quantitative analysis of phase measurement uncertainty for the generalized linear phase stepping algorithm with nominally equal phase stepping angles thereby reviewing and generalizing several results that have been reported in literature. All influence quantities are treated on equal footing, and correlations between them are described in a consistent way. For the special case of classical N-bucket algorithms, we present analytical formulae that describe the combined variance as a function of the phase angle values. For the general Arctan algorithms, we derive expressions for the measurement uncertainty averaged over the full 2{pi}-range of phase angles. We also give an upper bound for the measurement uncertainty which can be expressed as being proportional to an algorithm specific factor. Tabular compilations help the reader to quickly assess the uncertainties that are involved with his or her technique.

Invited Article: Concepts and tools for the evaluation of measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Iyer, Hari K.

2017-01-01

Measurements involve comparisons of measured values with reference values traceable to measurement standards and are made to support decision-making. While the conventional definition of measurement focuses on quantitative properties (including ordinal properties), we adopt a broader view and entertain the possibility of regarding qualitative properties also as legitimate targets for measurement. A measurement result comprises the following: (i) a value that has been assigned to a property based on information derived from an experiment or computation, possibly also including information derived from other sources, and (ii) a characterization of the margin of doubt that remains about the true value of the property after taking that information into account. Measurement uncertainty is this margin of doubt, and it can be characterized by a probability distribution on the set of possible values of the property of interest. Mathematical or statistical models enable the quantification of measurement uncertainty and underlie the varied collection of methods available for uncertainty evaluation. Some of these methods have been in use for over a century (for example, as introduced by Gauss for the combination of mutually inconsistent observations or for the propagation of "errors"), while others are of fairly recent vintage (for example, Monte Carlo methods including those that involve Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling). This contribution reviews the concepts, models, methods, and computations that are commonly used for the evaluation of measurement uncertainty, and illustrates their application in realistic examples drawn from multiple areas of science and technology, aiming to serve as a general, widely accessible reference.

Correlation and uncertainties evaluation in backscattering of entrance surface air kerma measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Teixeira, G.J.; Sousa, C.H.S.; Peixoto, J.G.P., E-mail: gt@ird.gov.br [Instituto de Radioproteção e Dosimetria (IRD/CNEN-RJ), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2017-07-01

The air kerma measurement is important to verify the applied doses in radiodiagnostic. The literature determines some methods to measure the entrance surface air kerma or entrance surface dose but some of this methods may increase the measurement with the backscattering. Were done setups of measurements to do correlations between them. The expanded uncertainty exceeded 5% for measurements with backscattering, reaching 8.36%, while in situations where the backscattering was avoided, the uncertainty was 3.43%. (author)

Towards minimizing measurement uncertainty in total petroleum hydrocarbon determination by GC-FID

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saari, E.

2009-07-01

Despite tightened environmental legislation, spillages of petroleum products remain a serious problem worldwide. The environmental impacts of these spillages are always severe and reliable methods for the identification and quantitative determination of petroleum hydrocarbons in environmental samples are therefore needed. Great improvements in the definition and analysis of total petroleum hydrocarbons (TPH) were finally introduced by international organizations for standardization in 2004. This brought some coherence to the determination and, nowadays, most laboratories seem to employ ISO/DIS 16703:2004, ISO 9377-2:2000 and CEN prEN 14039:2004:E draft international standards for analysing TPH in soil. The implementation of these methods, however, usually fails because the reliability of petroleum hydrocarbon determination has proved to be poor.This thesis describes the assessment of measurement uncertainty for TPH determination in soil. Chemometric methods were used to both estimate the main uncertainty sources and identify the most significant factors affecting these uncertainty sources. The method used for the determinations was based on gas chromatography utilizing flame ionization detection (GC-FID).Chemometric methodology applied in estimating measurement uncertainty for TPH determination showed that the measurement uncertainty is in actual fact dominated by the analytical uncertainty. Within the specific concentration range studied, the analytical uncertainty accounted for as much as 68-80% of the measurement uncertainty. The robustness of the analytical method used for petroleum hydrocarbon determination was then studied in more detail. A two-level Plackett-Burman design and a D-optimal design were utilized to assess the main analytical uncertainty sources of the sample treatment and GC determination procedures. It was also found that the matrix-induced systematic error may also significantly reduce the reliability of petroleum hydrocarbon determination

A new measure of uncertainty importance based on distributional sensitivity analysis for PSA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, Seok Jung; Tak, Nam Il; Chun, Moon Hyun

1996-01-01

The main objective of the present study is to propose a new measure of uncertainty importance based on distributional sensitivity analysis. The new measure is developed to utilize a metric distance obtained from cumulative distribution functions (cdfs). The measure is evaluated for two cases: one is a cdf given by a known analytical distribution and the other given by an empirical distribution generated by a crude Monte Carlo simulation. To study its applicability, the present measure has been applied to two different cases. The results are compared with those of existing three methods. The present approach is a useful measure of uncertainty importance which is based on cdfs. This method is simple and easy to calculate uncertainty importance without any complex process. On the basis of the results obtained in the present work, the present method is recommended to be used as a tool for the analysis of uncertainty importance

Uncertainty analysis technique for OMEGA Dante measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

May, M. J.; Widmann, K.; Sorce, C.; Park, H.-S.; Schneider, M.

2010-01-01

The Dante is an 18 channel x-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g., hohlraums, etc.) at x-ray energies between 50 eV and 10 keV. It is a main diagnostic installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the x-ray diodes, filters and mirrors, and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

Uncertainty Analysis Technique for OMEGA Dante Measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

May, M.J.; Widmann, K.; Sorce, C.; Park, H.; Schneider, M.

2010-01-01

The Dante is an 18 channel X-ray filtered diode array which records the spectrally and temporally resolved radiation flux from various targets (e.g. hohlraums, etc.) at X-ray energies between 50 eV to 10 keV. It is a main diagnostics installed on the OMEGA laser facility at the Laboratory for Laser Energetics, University of Rochester. The absolute flux is determined from the photometric calibration of the X-ray diodes, filters and mirrors and an unfold algorithm. Understanding the errors on this absolute measurement is critical for understanding hohlraum energetic physics. We present a new method for quantifying the uncertainties on the determined flux using a Monte-Carlo parameter variation technique. This technique combines the uncertainties in both the unfold algorithm and the error from the absolute calibration of each channel into a one sigma Gaussian error function. One thousand test voltage sets are created using these error functions and processed by the unfold algorithm to produce individual spectra and fluxes. Statistical methods are applied to the resultant set of fluxes to estimate error bars on the measurements.

Uncertainty analysis of the magnetic field measurement by the translating coil method in axisymmetric magnets

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arpaia, Pasquale; De Vito, Luca; Kazazi, Mario

2016-01-01

In the uncertainty assessment of magnetic flux measurements in axially symmetric magnets by the translating coil method, the Guide to the Uncertainty in Measurement and its supplement cannot be applied: the voltage variation at the coil terminals, which is the actual measured quantity, affects the flux estimate and its uncertainty. In this paper, a particle filter, implementing a sequential Monte-Carlo method based on Bayesian inference, is applied. At this aim, the main uncertainty sources are analyzed and a model of the measurement process is defined. The results of the experimental validation point out the transport system and the acquisition system as the main contributions to the uncertainty budget. (authors)

Total Measurement Uncertainty for the Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP) Segmented Gamma Scan Assay System

CERN Document Server

Fazzari, D M

2001-01-01

This report presents the results of an evaluation of the Total Measurement Uncertainty (TMU) for the Canberra manufactured Segmented Gamma Scanner Assay System (SGSAS) as employed at the Hanford Plutonium Finishing Plant (PFP). In this document, TMU embodies the combined uncertainties due to all of the individual random and systematic sources of measurement uncertainty. It includes uncertainties arising from corrections and factors applied to the analysis of transuranic waste to compensate for inhomogeneities and interferences from the waste matrix and radioactive components. These include uncertainty components for any assumptions contained in the calibration of the system or computation of the data. Uncertainties are propagated at 1 sigma. The final total measurement uncertainty value is reported at the 95% confidence level. The SGSAS is a gamma assay system that is used to assay plutonium and uranium waste. The SGSAS system can be used in a stand-alone mode to perform the NDA characterization of a containe...

Quantifying measurement uncertainty and spatial variability in the context of model evaluation

Science.gov (United States)

Choukulkar, A.; Brewer, A.; Pichugina, Y. L.; Bonin, T.; Banta, R. M.; Sandberg, S.; Weickmann, A. M.; Djalalova, I.; McCaffrey, K.; Bianco, L.; Wilczak, J. M.; Newman, J. F.; Draxl, C.; Lundquist, J. K.; Wharton, S.; Olson, J.; Kenyon, J.; Marquis, M.

2017-12-01

In an effort to improve wind forecasts for the wind energy sector, the Department of Energy and the NOAA funded the second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2). As part of the WFIP2 field campaign, a large suite of in-situ and remote sensing instrumentation was deployed to the Columbia River Gorge in Oregon and Washington from October 2015 - March 2017. The array of instrumentation deployed included 915-MHz wind profiling radars, sodars, wind- profiling lidars, and scanning lidars. The role of these instruments was to provide wind measurements at high spatial and temporal resolution for model evaluation and improvement of model physics. To properly determine model errors, the uncertainties in instrument-model comparisons need to be quantified accurately. These uncertainties arise from several factors such as measurement uncertainty, spatial variability, and interpolation of model output to instrument locations, to name a few. In this presentation, we will introduce a formalism to quantify measurement uncertainty and spatial variability. The accuracy of this formalism will be tested using existing datasets such as the eXperimental Planetary boundary layer Instrumentation Assessment (XPIA) campaign. Finally, the uncertainties in wind measurement and the spatial variability estimates from the WFIP2 field campaign will be discussed to understand the challenges involved in model evaluation.

Subspace-based Inverse Uncertainty Quantification for Nuclear Data Assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Khuwaileh, B.A., E-mail: bakhuwai@ncsu.edu; Abdel-Khalik, H.S.

2015-01-15

Safety analysis and design optimization depend on the accurate prediction of various reactor attributes. Predictions can be enhanced by reducing the uncertainty associated with the attributes of interest. An inverse problem can be defined and solved to assess the sources of uncertainty, and experimental effort can be subsequently directed to further improve the uncertainty associated with these sources. In this work a subspace-based algorithm for inverse sensitivity/uncertainty quantification (IS/UQ) has been developed to enable analysts account for all sources of nuclear data uncertainties in support of target accuracy assessment-type analysis. An approximate analytical solution of the optimization problem is used to guide the search for the dominant uncertainty subspace. By limiting the search to a subspace, the degrees of freedom available for the optimization search are significantly reduced. A quarter PWR fuel assembly is modeled and the accuracy of the multiplication factor and the fission reaction rate are used as reactor attributes whose uncertainties are to be reduced. Numerical experiments are used to demonstrate the computational efficiency of the proposed algorithm. Our ongoing work is focusing on extending the proposed algorithm to account for various forms of feedback, e.g., thermal-hydraulics and depletion effects.

Measurement, simulation and uncertainty assessment of implant heating during MRI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Neufeld, E; Kuehn, S; Kuster, N; Szekely, G

2009-01-01

The heating of tissues around implants during MRI can pose severe health risks, and careful evaluation is required for leads to be labeled as MR conditionally safe. A recent interlaboratory comparison study has shown that different groups can produce widely varying results (sometimes with more than a factor of 5 difference) when performing measurements according to current guidelines. To determine the related difficulties and to derive optimized procedures, two different generic lead structures have been investigated in this study by using state-of-the-art temperature and dosimetric probes, as well as simulations for which detailed uncertainty budgets have been determined. The agreement between simulations and measurements is well within the combined uncertainty. The study revealed that the uncertainty can be kept below 17% if appropriate instrumentation and procedures are applied. Optimized experimental assessment techniques can be derived from the findings presented herein.

Measurement, simulation and uncertainty assessment of implant heating during MRI

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Neufeld, E; Kuehn, S; Kuster, N [Foundation for Research on Information Technologies in Society (IT' IS), Zeughausstr. 43, 8004 Zurich (Switzerland); Szekely, G [Computer Vision Laboratory, Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETHZ), Sternwartstr 7, ETH Zentrum, 8092 Zurich (Switzerland)], E-mail: neufeld@itis.ethz.ch

2009-07-07

The heating of tissues around implants during MRI can pose severe health risks, and careful evaluation is required for leads to be labeled as MR conditionally safe. A recent interlaboratory comparison study has shown that different groups can produce widely varying results (sometimes with more than a factor of 5 difference) when performing measurements according to current guidelines. To determine the related difficulties and to derive optimized procedures, two different generic lead structures have been investigated in this study by using state-of-the-art temperature and dosimetric probes, as well as simulations for which detailed uncertainty budgets have been determined. The agreement between simulations and measurements is well within the combined uncertainty. The study revealed that the uncertainty can be kept below 17% if appropriate instrumentation and procedures are applied. Optimized experimental assessment techniques can be derived from the findings presented herein.

Uncertainty of measurement for large product verification: evaluation of large aero gas turbine engine datums

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Muelaner, J E; Wang, Z; Keogh, P S; Brownell, J; Fisher, D

2016-01-01

Understanding the uncertainty of dimensional measurements for large products such as aircraft, spacecraft and wind turbines is fundamental to improving efficiency in these products. Much work has been done to ascertain the uncertainty associated with the main types of instruments used, based on laser tracking and photogrammetry, and the propagation of this uncertainty through networked measurements. Unfortunately this is not sufficient to understand the combined uncertainty of industrial measurements, which include secondary tooling and datum structures used to locate the coordinate frame. This paper presents for the first time a complete evaluation of the uncertainty of large scale industrial measurement processes. Generic analysis and design rules are proven through uncertainty evaluation and optimization for the measurement of a large aero gas turbine engine. This shows how the instrument uncertainty can be considered to be negligible. Before optimization the dominant source of uncertainty was the tooling design, after optimization the dominant source was thermal expansion of the engine; meaning that no further improvement can be made without measurement in a temperature controlled environment. These results will have a significant impact on the ability of aircraft and wind turbines to improve efficiency and therefore reduce carbon emissions, as well as the improved reliability of these products. (paper)

Online Game Addiction among Chinese College Students Measurement and Attribution.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Yuqiong; Li, Zhitian

2009-01-01

This study made an initial attempt to measure and attribute online game addiction among Chinese college students. We generated three factors of online game addiction: Control Disorder, Conflict, and Injury, as well as proposed a comprehensive model that attributed online game addiction to three groups of driving forces: environmental influences (most significant), characteristics of online games, and personal reasons.

Covariance methodology applied to uncertainties in I-126 disintegration rate measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fonseca, K.A.; Koskinas, M.F.; Dias, M.S.

1996-01-01

The covariance methodology applied to uncertainties in 126 I disintegration rate measurements is described. Two different coincidence systems were used due to the complex decay scheme of this radionuclide. The parameters involved in the determination of the disintegration rate in each experimental system present correlated components. In this case, the conventional statistical methods to determine the uncertainties (law of propagation) result in wrong values for the final uncertainty. Therefore, use of the methodology of the covariance matrix is necessary. The data from both systems were combined taking into account all possible correlations between the partial uncertainties. (orig.)

Uncertainty in Measurement: A Review of Monte Carlo Simulation Using Microsoft Excel for the Calculation of Uncertainties Through Functional Relationships, Including Uncertainties in Empirically Derived Constants

Science.gov (United States)

Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert

2014-01-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more ‘constants’, each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived ‘constants’ must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional

Uncertainty in measurement: a review of monte carlo simulation using microsoft excel for the calculation of uncertainties through functional relationships, including uncertainties in empirically derived constants.

Science.gov (United States)

Farrance, Ian; Frenkel, Robert

2014-02-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (usually referred to as the GUM) provides the basic framework for evaluating uncertainty in measurement. The GUM however does not always provide clearly identifiable procedures suitable for medical laboratory applications, particularly when internal quality control (IQC) is used to derive most of the uncertainty estimates. The GUM modelling approach requires advanced mathematical skills for many of its procedures, but Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) can be used as an alternative for many medical laboratory applications. In particular, calculations for determining how uncertainties in the input quantities to a functional relationship propagate through to the output can be accomplished using a readily available spreadsheet such as Microsoft Excel. The MCS procedure uses algorithmically generated pseudo-random numbers which are then forced to follow a prescribed probability distribution. When IQC data provide the uncertainty estimates the normal (Gaussian) distribution is generally considered appropriate, but MCS is by no means restricted to this particular case. With input variations simulated by random numbers, the functional relationship then provides the corresponding variations in the output in a manner which also provides its probability distribution. The MCS procedure thus provides output uncertainty estimates without the need for the differential equations associated with GUM modelling. The aim of this article is to demonstrate the ease with which Microsoft Excel (or a similar spreadsheet) can be used to provide an uncertainty estimate for measurands derived through a functional relationship. In addition, we also consider the relatively common situation where an empirically derived formula includes one or more 'constants', each of which has an empirically derived numerical value. Such empirically derived 'constants' must also have associated uncertainties which propagate through the functional relationship

Top down arsenic uncertainty measurement in water and sediments from Guarapiranga dam (Brazil)

Science.gov (United States)

Faustino, M. G.; Lange, C. N.; Monteiro, L. R.; Furusawa, H. A.; Marques, J. R.; Stellato, T. B.; Soares, S. M. V.; da Silva, T. B. S. C.; da Silva, D. B.; Cotrim, M. E. B.; Pires, M. A. F.

2018-03-01

Total arsenic measurements assessment regarding legal threshold demands more than average and standard deviation approach. In this way, analytical measurement uncertainty evaluation was conducted in order to comply with legal requirements and to allow the balance of arsenic in both water and sediment compartments. A top-down approach for measurement uncertainties was applied to evaluate arsenic concentrations in water and sediments from Guarapiranga dam (São Paulo, Brazil). Laboratory quality control and arsenic interlaboratory tests data were used in this approach to estimate the uncertainties associated with the methodology.

Evaluation of an attributive measurement system in the automotive industry

Science.gov (United States)

Simion, C.

2016-08-01

Measurement System Analysis (MSA) is a critical component for any quality improvement process. MSA is defined as an experimental and mathematical method of determining how much the variation within the measurement process contributes to overall process variability and it falls into two categories: attribute and variable. Most problematic measurement system issues come from measuring attribute data, which are usually the result of human judgment (visual inspection). Because attributive measurement systems are often used in some manufacturing processes, their assessment is important to obtain the confidence in the inspection process, to see where are the problems in order to eliminate them and to guide the process improvement. It was the aim of this paper to address such a issue presenting a case study made in a local company from the Sibiu region supplying products for the automotive industry, specifically the bag (a technical textile component, i.e. the fabric) for the airbag module. Because defects are inherent in every manufacturing process and in the field of airbag systems a minor defect can influence their performance and lives depend on the safety feature, there is a stringent visual inspection required on the defects of the bag material. The purpose of this attribute MSA was: to determine if all inspectors use the same criteria to determine “pass” from “fail” product (i.e. the fabric); to assess company inspection standards against customer's requirements; to determine how well inspectors are conforming to themselves; to identify how inspectors are conforming to a “known master,” which includes: how often operators ship defective product, how often operators dispose of acceptable product; to discover areas where training is required, procedures must be developed and standards are not available. The results were analyzed using MINITAB software with its module called Attribute Agreement Analysis. The conclusion was that the inspection process must

Estimation of Uncertainty in Aerosol Concentration Measured by Aerosol Sampling System

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Jong Chan; Song, Yong Jae; Jung, Woo Young; Lee, Hyun Chul; Kim, Gyu Tae; Lee, Doo Yong [FNC Technology Co., Yongin (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

FNC Technology Co., Ltd has been developed test facilities for the aerosol generation, mixing, sampling and measurement under high pressure and high temperature conditions. The aerosol generation system is connected to the aerosol mixing system which injects SiO{sub 2}/ethanol mixture. In the sampling system, glass fiber membrane filter has been used to measure average mass concentration. Based on the experimental results using main carrier gas of steam and air mixture, the uncertainty estimation of the sampled aerosol concentration was performed by applying Gaussian error propagation law. FNC Technology Co., Ltd. has been developed the experimental facilities for the aerosol measurement under high pressure and high temperature. The purpose of the tests is to develop commercial test module for aerosol generation, mixing and sampling system applicable to environmental industry and safety related system in nuclear power plant. For the uncertainty calculation of aerosol concentration, the value of the sampled aerosol concentration is not measured directly, but must be calculated from other quantities. The uncertainty of the sampled aerosol concentration is a function of flow rates of air and steam, sampled mass, sampling time, condensed steam mass and its absolute errors. These variables propagate to the combination of variables in the function. Using operating parameters and its single errors from the aerosol test cases performed at FNC, the uncertainty of aerosol concentration evaluated by Gaussian error propagation law is less than 1%. The results of uncertainty estimation in the aerosol sampling system will be utilized for the system performance data.

A Quantitative Measure For Evaluating Project Uncertainty Under Variation And Risk Effects

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Chenarani

2017-10-01

Full Text Available The effects of uncertainty on a project and the risk event as the consequence of uncertainty are analyzed. The uncertainty index is proposed as a quantitative measure for evaluating the uncertainty of a project. This is done by employing entropy as the indicator of system disorder and lack of information. By employing this index, the uncertainty of each activity and its increase due to risk effects as well as project uncertainty changes as a function of time can be assessed. The results are implemented and analyzed for a small turbojet engine development project as the case study. The results of this study can be useful for project managers and other stakeholders for selecting the most effective risk management and uncertainty controlling method.

Statistical Determination of Impact of Property Attributes for Weak Measurement Scales

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Doszyń Mariusz

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Many of the property attributes are measured on weak scales (nominal and ordinal scale. For example, land allocation in the development plan is measured on a nominal scale and such categories as proximity, equipment, access to means of communication, location, and soil and water conditions, are measured on an ordinal scale. The use of statistical measures appropriate for interval or quotient scales is wrong in such cases. Therefore, the article presents statistical measures that allow specifying the impact of the attributes on real estate prices, which can be used for the weaker scales, mainly for the ordinal scale. In the empirical illustration the proposed measures will be calculated by using the actual database of transaction prices.

Estimation of the measurement uncertainty in magnetic resonance velocimetry based on statistical models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruschewski, Martin; Schiffer, Heinz-Peter [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institute of Gas Turbines and Aerospace Propulsion, Darmstadt (Germany); Freudenhammer, Daniel [Technische Universitaet Darmstadt, Institute of Fluid Mechanics and Aerodynamics, Center of Smart Interfaces, Darmstadt (Germany); Buchenberg, Waltraud B. [University Medical Center Freiburg, Medical Physics, Department of Radiology, Freiburg (Germany); Grundmann, Sven [University of Rostock, Institute of Fluid Mechanics, Rostock (Germany)

2016-05-15

Velocity measurements with magnetic resonance velocimetry offer outstanding possibilities for experimental fluid mechanics. The purpose of this study was to provide practical guidelines for the estimation of the measurement uncertainty in such experiments. Based on various test cases, it is shown that the uncertainty estimate can vary substantially depending on how the uncertainty is obtained. The conventional approach to estimate the uncertainty from the noise in the artifact-free background can lead to wrong results. A deviation of up to -75% is observed with the presented experiments. In addition, a similarly high deviation is demonstrated with the data from other studies. As a more accurate approach, the uncertainty is estimated directly from the image region with the flow sample. Two possible estimation methods are presented. (orig.)

Estimation of the measurement uncertainty in magnetic resonance velocimetry based on statistical models

Science.gov (United States)

Bruschewski, Martin; Freudenhammer, Daniel; Buchenberg, Waltraud B.; Schiffer, Heinz-Peter; Grundmann, Sven

2016-05-01

Velocity measurements with magnetic resonance velocimetry offer outstanding possibilities for experimental fluid mechanics. The purpose of this study was to provide practical guidelines for the estimation of the measurement uncertainty in such experiments. Based on various test cases, it is shown that the uncertainty estimate can vary substantially depending on how the uncertainty is obtained. The conventional approach to estimate the uncertainty from the noise in the artifact-free background can lead to wrong results. A deviation of up to -75 % is observed with the presented experiments. In addition, a similarly high deviation is demonstrated with the data from other studies. As a more accurate approach, the uncertainty is estimated directly from the image region with the flow sample. Two possible estimation methods are presented.

The concordance of directly and indirectly measured built environment attributes and physical activity adoption

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

O'Connor Daniel P

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Background Physical activity (PA adoption is essential for obesity prevention and control, yet ethnic minority women report lower levels of PA and are at higher risk for obesity and its comorbidities compared to Caucasians. Epidemiological studies and ecologic models of health behavior suggest that built environmental factors are associated with health behaviors like PA, but few studies have examined the association between built environment attribute concordance and PA, and no known studies have examined attribute concordance and PA adoption. Purpose The purpose of this study was to associate the degree of concordance between directly and indirectly measured built environment attributes with changes in PA over time among African American and Hispanic Latina women participating in a PA intervention. Method Women (N = 410 completed measures of PA at Time 1 (T1 and Time 2 (T2; environmental data collected at T1 were used to compute concordance between directly and indirectly measured built environment attributes. The association between changes in PA and the degree of concordance between each directly and indirectly measured environmental attribute was assessed using repeated measures analyses. Results There were no significant associations between built environment attribute concordance values and change in self-reported or objectively measured PA. Self-reported PA significantly increased over time (F(1,184 = 7.82, p = .006, but this increase did not vary by ethnicity or any built environment attribute concordance variable. Conclusions Built environment attribute concordance may not be associated with PA changes over time among minority women. In an effort to promote PA, investigators should clarify specific built environment attributes that are important for PA adoption and whether accurate perceptions of these attributes are necessary, particularly among the vulnerable population of minority women.

Relating Tropical Cyclone Track Forecast Error Distributions with Measurements of Forecast Uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-01

CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY by Nicholas M. Chisler March 2016 Thesis Advisor...March 2016 3. REPORT TYPE AND DATES COVERED Master’s thesis 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE RELATING TROPICAL CYCLONE TRACK FORECAST ERROR DISTRIBUTIONS...WITH MEASUREMENTS OF FORECAST UNCERTAINTY 5. FUNDING NUMBERS 6. AUTHOR(S) Nicholas M. Chisler 7. PERFORMING ORGANIZATION NAME(S) AND ADDRESS(ES

Stakeholder-driven multi-attribute analysis for energy project selection under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Read, Laura; Madani, Kaveh; Mokhtari, Soroush; Hanks, Catherine

2017-01-01

In practice, selecting an energy project for development requires balancing criteria and competing stakeholder priorities to identify the best alternative. Energy source selection can be modeled as multi-criteria decision-maker problems to provide quantitative support to reconcile technical, economic, environmental, social, and political factors with respect to the stakeholders' interests. Decision making among these complex interactions should also account for the uncertainty present in the input data. In response, this work develops a stochastic decision analysis framework to evaluate alternatives by involving stakeholders to identify both quantitative and qualitative selection criteria and performance metrics which carry uncertainties. The developed framework is illustrated using a case study from Fairbanks, Alaska, where decision makers and residents must decide on a new source of energy for heating and electricity. We approach this problem in a five step methodology: (1) engaging experts (role players) to develop criteria of project performance; (2) collecting a range of quantitative and qualitative input information to determine the performance of each proposed solution according to the selected criteria; (3) performing a Monte-Carlo analysis to capture uncertainties given in the inputs; (4) applying multi-criteria decision-making, social choice (voting), and fallback bargaining methods to account for three different levels of cooperation among the stakeholders; and (5) computing an aggregate performance index (API) score for each alternative based on its performance across criteria and cooperation levels. API scores communicate relative performance between alternatives. In this way, our methodology maps uncertainty from the input data to reflect risk in the decision and incorporates varying degrees of cooperation into the analysis to identify an optimal and practical alternative. - Highlights: • We develop an applicable stakeholder-driven framework for

Total uncertainty of low velocity thermal anemometers for measurement of indoor air movements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, F.; Popiolek, Z.; Melikov, Arsen Krikor

2004-01-01

For a specific thermal anemometer with omnidirectional velocity sensor the expanded total uncertainty in measured mean velocity Û(Vmean) and the expanded total uncertainty in measured turbulence intensity Û(Tu) due to different error sources are estimated. The values are based on a previously...... developed mathematical model of the anemometer in combination with a large database of representative room flows measured with a 3-D Laser Doppler anemometer (LDA). A direct comparison between measurements with a thermal anemometer and a 3-D LDA in flows of varying velocity and turbulence intensity shows...... good agreement not only between the two instruments but also between the thermal anemometer and its mathematical model. The differences in the measurements performed with the two instruments are all well within the measurement uncertainty of both anemometers....

Object-oriented software for evaluating measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Hall, B. D.

2013-05-01

An earlier publication (Hall 2006 Metrologia 43 L56-61) introduced the notion of an uncertain number that can be used in data processing to represent quantity estimates with associated uncertainty. The approach can be automated, allowing data processing algorithms to be decomposed into convenient steps, so that complicated measurement procedures can be handled. This paper illustrates the uncertain-number approach using several simple measurement scenarios and two different software tools. One is an extension library for Microsoft Excel®. The other is a special-purpose calculator using the Python programming language.

Object-oriented software for evaluating measurement uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hall, B D

2013-01-01

An earlier publication (Hall 2006 Metrologia 43 L56–61) introduced the notion of an uncertain number that can be used in data processing to represent quantity estimates with associated uncertainty. The approach can be automated, allowing data processing algorithms to be decomposed into convenient steps, so that complicated measurement procedures can be handled. This paper illustrates the uncertain-number approach using several simple measurement scenarios and two different software tools. One is an extension library for Microsoft Excel®. The other is a special-purpose calculator using the Python programming language. (paper)

Uncertainty Quantification and Comparison of Weld Residual Stress Measurements and Predictions.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lewis, John R. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Brooks, Dusty Marie [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

2016-10-01

In pressurized water reactors, the prevention, detection, and repair of cracks within dissimilar metal welds is essential to ensure proper plant functionality and safety. Weld residual stresses, which are difficult to model and cannot be directly measured, contribute to the formation and growth of cracks due to primary water stress corrosion cracking. Additionally, the uncertainty in weld residual stress measurements and modeling predictions is not well understood, further complicating the prediction of crack evolution. The purpose of this document is to develop methodology to quantify the uncertainty associated with weld residual stress that can be applied to modeling predictions and experimental measurements. Ultimately, the results can be used to assess the current state of uncertainty and to build confidence in both modeling and experimental procedures. The methodology consists of statistically modeling the variation in the weld residual stress profiles using functional data analysis techniques. Uncertainty is quantified using statistical bounds (e.g. confidence and tolerance bounds) constructed with a semi-parametric bootstrap procedure. Such bounds describe the range in which quantities of interest, such as means, are expected to lie as evidenced by the data. The methodology is extended to provide direct comparisons between experimental measurements and modeling predictions by constructing statistical confidence bounds for the average difference between the two quantities. The statistical bounds on the average difference can be used to assess the level of agreement between measurements and predictions. The methodology is applied to experimental measurements of residual stress obtained using two strain relief measurement methods and predictions from seven finite element models developed by different organizations during a round robin study.

Assessment of Measurement Uncertainty Values of the Scandium Determination in Marine Sediment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rina-Mulyaningsih, Th.

2005-01-01

The result value of testing is meaningless if it isn't completed with uncertainty value. So that with the analysis result Sc in the marine sediment sample. It was assessed the uncertainty measurement of Sc analysis in marine sediment. The experiment was done in AAN Serpong laboratory. The result of calculation uncertainty on Sc analysis showed that the uncertainty components come from: preparation of sample and standard/comparator, purity of standard, counting statistics (sample and standard), repeatability, nuclear data and decay correction. The assessment on uncertainty must be done for the analysis of others elements, because each elements has difference nuclear and physical properties. (author)

Measurement Uncertainty of Dew-Point Temperature in a Two-Pressure Humidity Generator

Science.gov (United States)

Martins, L. Lages; Ribeiro, A. Silva; Alves e Sousa, J.; Forbes, Alistair B.

2012-09-01

This article describes the measurement uncertainty evaluation of the dew-point temperature when using a two-pressure humidity generator as a reference standard. The estimation of the dew-point temperature involves the solution of a non-linear equation for which iterative solution techniques, such as the Newton-Raphson method, are required. Previous studies have already been carried out using the GUM method and the Monte Carlo method but have not discussed the impact of the approximate numerical method used to provide the temperature estimation. One of the aims of this article is to take this approximation into account. Following the guidelines presented in the GUM Supplement 1, two alternative approaches can be developed: the forward measurement uncertainty propagation by the Monte Carlo method when using the Newton-Raphson numerical procedure; and the inverse measurement uncertainty propagation by Bayesian inference, based on prior available information regarding the usual dispersion of values obtained by the calibration process. The measurement uncertainties obtained using these two methods can be compared with previous results. Other relevant issues concerning this research are the broad application to measurements that require hygrometric conditions obtained from two-pressure humidity generators and, also, the ability to provide a solution that can be applied to similar iterative models. The research also studied the factors influencing both the use of the Monte Carlo method (such as the seed value and the convergence parameter) and the inverse uncertainty propagation using Bayesian inference (such as the pre-assigned tolerance, prior estimate, and standard deviation) in terms of their accuracy and adequacy.

Learning about Measurement Uncertainties in Secondary Education: A Model of the Subject Matter

Science.gov (United States)

Priemer, Burkhard; Hellwig, Julia

2018-01-01

Estimating measurement uncertainties is important for experimental scientific work. However, this is very often neglected in school curricula and teaching practice, even though experimental work is seen as a fundamental part of teaching science. In order to call attention to the relevance of measurement uncertainties, we developed a comprehensive…

GUM approach to uncertainty estimations for online 220Rn concentration measurements using Lucas scintillation cell

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sathyabama, N.

2014-01-01

It is now widely recognized that, when all of the known or suspected components of errors have been evaluated and corrected, there still remains an uncertainty, that is, a doubt about how well the result of the measurement represents the value of the quantity being measured. Evaluation of measurement data - Guide to the expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) is a guidance document, the purpose of which is to promote full information on how uncertainty statements are arrived at and to provide a basis for the international comparison of measurement results. In this paper, uncertainty estimations following GUM guidelines have been made for the measured values of online thoron concentrations using Lucas scintillation cell to prove that the correction for disequilibrium between 220 Rn and 216 Po is significant in online 220 Rn measurements

PDF uncertainties in precision electroweak measurements, including the W mass, in ATLAS

CERN Document Server

Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; The ATLAS collaboration

2015-01-01

Now that the Higgs mass is known all the parameters of the SM are known- but with what accuracy? Precision EW measurements test the self-consistency of the SM- and thus can give hints of BSM physics. Precision measurements of $sin^2\\theta _W$ and the W mass are limited by PDF uncertainties This contribution discusses these uncertainties and what can be done to improve them.

Comparison of ISO-GUM and Monte Carlo Method for Evaluation of Measurement Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ha, Young-Cheol; Her, Jae-Young; Lee, Seung-Jun; Lee, Kang-Jin [Korea Gas Corporation, Daegu (Korea, Republic of)

2014-07-15

To supplement the ISO-GUM method for the evaluation of measurement uncertainty, a simulation program using the Monte Carlo method (MCM) was developed, and the MCM and GUM methods were compared. The results are as follows: (1) Even under a non-normal probability distribution of the measurement, MCM provides an accurate coverage interval; (2) Even if a probability distribution that emerged from combining a few non-normal distributions looks as normal, there are cases in which the actual distribution is not normal and the non-normality can be determined by the probability distribution of the combined variance; and (3) If type-A standard uncertainties are involved in the evaluation of measurement uncertainty, GUM generally offers an under-valued coverage interval. However, this problem can be solved by the Bayesian evaluation of type-A standard uncertainty. In this case, the effective degree of freedom for the combined variance is not required in the evaluation of expanded uncertainty, and the appropriate coverage factor for 95% level of confidence was determined to be 1.96.

Measurement uncertainty of dissolution test of acetaminophen immediate release tablets using Monte Carlo simulations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Cancelli Romero

2017-10-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT Analytical results are widely used to assess batch-by-batch conformity, pharmaceutical equivalence, as well as in the development of drug products. Despite this, few papers describing the measurement uncertainty estimation associated with these results were found in the literature. Here, we described a simple procedure used for estimating measurement uncertainty associated with the dissolution test of acetaminophen tablets. A fractionate factorial design was used to define a mathematical model that explains the amount of acetaminophen dissolved (% as a function of time of dissolution (from 20 to 40 minutes, volume of dissolution media (from 800 to 1000 mL, pH of dissolution media (from 2.0 to 6.8, and rotation speed (from 40 to 60 rpm. Using Monte Carlo simulations, we estimated measurement uncertainty for dissolution test of acetaminophen tablets (95.2 ± 1.0%, with a 95% confidence level. Rotation speed was the most important source of uncertainty, contributing about 96.2% of overall uncertainty. Finally, it is important to note that the uncertainty calculated in this paper reflects the expected uncertainty to the dissolution test, and does not consider variations in the content of acetaminophen.

Quantifying measurement uncertainties in ADCP measurements in non-steady, inhomogeneous flow

Science.gov (United States)

Schäfer, Stefan

2017-04-01

The author presents a laboratory study of fixed-platform four-beam ADCP and three-beam ADV measurements in the tailrace of a micro hydro power setup with a 35kW Kaplan-turbine and 2.5m head. The datasets discussed quantify measurement uncertainties of the ADCP measurement technique coming from non-steady, inhomogeneous flow. For constant discharge of 1.5m3/s, two different flow scenarios were investigated: one being the regular tailrace flow downstream the draft tube and the second being a straightened, less inhomogeneous flow, which was generated by the use of a flow straightening device: A rack of diameter 40mm pipe sections was mounted right behind the draft tube. ADCP measurements (sampling rate 1.35Hz) were conducted in three distances behind the draft tube and compared bin-wise to measurements of three simultaneously measuring ADV probes (sampling rate 64Hz). The ADV probes were aligned horizontally and the ADV bins were placed in the centers of two facing ADCP bins and in the vertical under the ADCP probe of the corresponding depth. Rotating the ADV probes by 90° allowed for measurements of the other two facing ADCP bins. For reasons of mutual probe interaction, ADCP and ADV measurements were not conducted at the same time. The datasets were evaluated by using mean and fluctuation velocities. Turbulence parameters were calculated and compared as far as applicable. Uncertainties coming from non-steady flow were estimated with the normalized mean square error und evaluated by comparing long-term measurements of 60 minutes to shorter measurement intervals. Uncertainties coming from inhomogeneous flow were evaluated by comparison of ADCP with ADV data along the ADCP beams where ADCP data were effectively measured and in the vertical under the ADCP probe where velocities of the ADCP measurements were displayed. Errors coming from non-steady flow could be compensated through sufficiently long measurement intervals with high enough sampling rates depending on the

Chemical kinetic model uncertainty minimization through laminar flame speed measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Okjoo; Veloo, Peter S.; Sheen, David A.; Tao, Yujie; Egolfopoulos, Fokion N.; Wang, Hai

2016-01-01

Laminar flame speed measurements were carried for mixture of air with eight C3-4 hydrocarbons (propene, propane, 1,3-butadiene, 1-butene, 2-butene, iso-butene, n-butane, and iso-butane) at the room temperature and ambient pressure. Along with C1-2 hydrocarbon data reported in a recent study, the entire dataset was used to demonstrate how laminar flame speed data can be utilized to explore and minimize the uncertainties in a reaction model for foundation fuels. The USC Mech II kinetic model was chosen as a case study. The method of uncertainty minimization using polynomial chaos expansions (MUM-PCE) (D.A. Sheen and H. Wang, Combust. Flame 2011, 158, 2358–2374) was employed to constrain the model uncertainty for laminar flame speed predictions. Results demonstrate that a reaction model constrained only by the laminar flame speed values of methane/air flames notably reduces the uncertainty in the predictions of the laminar flame speeds of C3 and C4 alkanes, because the key chemical pathways of all of these flames are similar to each other. The uncertainty in model predictions for flames of unsaturated C3-4 hydrocarbons remain significant without considering fuel specific laminar flames speeds in the constraining target data set, because the secondary rate controlling reaction steps are different from those in the saturated alkanes. It is shown that the constraints provided by the laminar flame speeds of the foundation fuels could reduce notably the uncertainties in the predictions of laminar flame speeds of C4 alcohol/air mixtures. Furthermore, it is demonstrated that an accurate prediction of the laminar flame speed of a particular C4 alcohol/air mixture is better achieved through measurements for key molecular intermediates formed during the pyrolysis and oxidation of the parent fuel. PMID:27890938

Optimized Clustering Estimators for BAO Measurements Accounting for Significant Redshift Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ross, Ashley J. [Portsmouth U., ICG; Banik, Nilanjan [Fermilab; Avila, Santiago [Madrid, IFT; Percival, Will J. [Portsmouth U., ICG; Dodelson, Scott [Fermilab; Garcia-Bellido, Juan [Madrid, IFT; Crocce, Martin [ICE, Bellaterra; Elvin-Poole, Jack [Jodrell Bank; Giannantonio, Tommaso [Cambridge U., KICC; Manera, Marc [Cambridge U., DAMTP; Sevilla-Noarbe, Ignacio [Madrid, CIEMAT

2017-05-15

We determine an optimized clustering statistic to be used for galaxy samples with significant redshift uncertainty, such as those that rely on photometric redshifts. To do so, we study the BAO information content as a function of the orientation of galaxy clustering modes with respect to their angle to the line-of-sight (LOS). The clustering along the LOS, as observed in a redshift-space with significant redshift uncertainty, has contributions from clustering modes with a range of orientations with respect to the true LOS. For redshift uncertainty $\\sigma_z \\geq 0.02(1+z)$ we find that while the BAO information is confined to transverse clustering modes in the true space, it is spread nearly evenly in the observed space. Thus, measuring clustering in terms of the projected separation (regardless of the LOS) is an efficient and nearly lossless compression of the signal for $\\sigma_z \\geq 0.02(1+z)$. For reduced redshift uncertainty, a more careful consideration is required. We then use more than 1700 realizations of galaxy simulations mimicking the Dark Energy Survey Year 1 sample to validate our analytic results and optimized analysis procedure. We find that using the correlation function binned in projected separation, we can achieve uncertainties that are within 10 per cent of of those predicted by Fisher matrix forecasts. We predict that DES Y1 should achieve a 5 per cent distance measurement using our optimized methods. We expect the results presented here to be important for any future BAO measurements made using photometric redshift data.

An uncertainty importance measure using a distance metric for the change in a cumulative distribution function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chun, Moon-Hyun; Han, Seok-Jung; Tak, Nam-IL

2000-01-01

A simple measure of uncertainty importance using the entire change of cumulative distribution functions (CDFs) has been developed for use in probability safety assessments (PSAs). The entire change of CDFs is quantified in terms of the metric distance between two CDFs. The metric distance measure developed in this study reflects the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution, while most of the existing uncertainty importance measures reflect the magnitude of relative contribution of input uncertainties to the output uncertainty. The present measure has been evaluated analytically for various analytical distributions to examine its characteristics. To illustrate the applicability and strength of the present measure, two examples are provided. The first example is an application of the present measure to a typical problem of a system fault tree analysis and the second one is for a hypothetical non-linear model. Comparisons of the present result with those obtained by existing uncertainty importance measures show that the metric distance measure is a useful tool to express the measure of uncertainty importance in terms of the relative impact of distributional changes of inputs on the change of an output distribution

Calibration Uncertainties in the Droplet Measurement Technologies Cloud Condensation Nuclei Counter

Science.gov (United States)

Hibert, Kurt James

Cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) serve as the nucleation sites for the condensation of water vapor in Earth's atmosphere and are important for their effect on climate and weather. The influence of CCN on cloud radiative properties (aerosol indirect effect) is the most uncertain of quantified radiative forcing changes that have occurred since pre-industrial times. CCN influence the weather because intrinsic and extrinsic aerosol properties affect cloud formation and precipitation development. To quantify these effects, it is necessary to accurately measure CCN, which requires accurate calibrations using a consistent methodology. Furthermore, the calibration uncertainties are required to compare measurements from different field projects. CCN uncertainties also aid the integration of CCN measurements with atmospheric models. The commercially available Droplet Measurement Technologies (DMT) CCN Counter is used by many research groups, so it is important to quantify its calibration uncertainty. Uncertainties in the calibration of the DMT CCN counter exist in the flow rate and supersaturation values. The concentration depends on the accuracy of the flow rate calibration, which does not have a large (4.3 %) uncertainty. The supersaturation depends on chamber pressure, temperature, and flow rate. The supersaturation calibration is a complex process since the chamber's supersaturation must be inferred from a temperature difference measurement. Additionally, calibration errors can result from the Kohler theory assumptions, fitting methods utilized, the influence of multiply-charged particles, and calibration points used. In order to determine the calibration uncertainties and the pressure dependence of the supersaturation calibration, three calibrations are done at each pressure level: 700, 840, and 980 hPa. Typically 700 hPa is the pressure used for aircraft measurements in the boundary layer, 840 hPa is the calibration pressure at DMT in Boulder, CO, and 980 hPa is the

A study on the propagation of measurement uncertainties into the result on a turbine performance test

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cho, Soo Yong; Park, Chan Woo

2004-01-01

Uncertainties generated from the individual measured variables have an influence on the uncertainty of the experimental result through a data reduction equation. In this study, a performance test of a single stage axial type turbine is conducted, and total-to-total efficiencies are measured at the various off-design points in the low pressure and cold state. Based on an experimental apparatus, a data reduction equation for turbine efficiency is formulated and six measured variables are selected. Codes are written to calculate the efficiency, the uncertainty of the efficiency, and the sensitivity of the efficiency uncertainty by each of the measured quantities. The influence of each measured variable on the experimental result is figured out. Results show that the largest Uncertainty Magnification Factor (UMF) value is obtained by the inlet total pressure among the six measured variables, and its value is always greater than one. The UMF values of the inlet total temperature, the torque, and the RPM are always one. The Uncertainty Percentage Contribution (UPC) of the RPM shows the lowest influence on the uncertainty of the turbine efficiency, but the UPC of the torque has the largest influence to the result among the measured variables. These results are applied to find the correct direction for meeting an uncertainty requirement of the experimental result in the planning or development phase of experiment, and also to offer ideas for preparing a measurement system in the planning phase

A super-resolution approach for uncertainty estimation of PIV measurements

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Sciacchitano, A.; Wieneke, B.; Scarano, F.

2012-01-01

A super-resolution approach is proposed for the a posteriori uncertainty estimation of PIV measurements. The measured velocity field is employed to determine the displacement of individual particle images. A disparity set is built from the residual distance between paired particle images of

Assessing uncertainty and risk in exploited marine populations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fogarty, M.J.; Mayo, R.K.; O'Brien, L.; Serchuk, F.M.; Rosenberg, A.A.

1996-01-01

The assessment and management of exploited fish and invertebrate populations is subject to several types of uncertainty. This uncertainty translates into risk to the population in the development and implementation of fishery management advice. Here, we define risk as the probability that exploitation rates will exceed a threshold level where long term sustainability of the stock is threatened. We distinguish among several sources of error or uncertainty due to (a) stochasticity in demographic rates and processes, particularly in survival rates during the early fife stages; (b) measurement error resulting from sampling variation in the determination of population parameters or in model estimation; and (c) the lack of complete information on population and ecosystem dynamics. The first represents a form of aleatory uncertainty while the latter two factors represent forms of epistemic uncertainty. To illustrate these points, we evaluate the recent status of the Georges Bank cod stock in a risk assessment framework. Short term stochastic projections are made accounting for uncertainty in population size and for random variability in the number of young surviving to enter the fishery. We show that recent declines in this cod stock can be attributed to exploitation rates that have substantially exceeded sustainable levels

Experimental Test of Entropic Noise-Disturbance Uncertainty Relations for Spin-1/2 Measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Sulyok, Georg; Sponar, Stephan; Demirel, Bülent; Buscemi, Francesco; Hall, Michael J W; Ozawa, Masanao; Hasegawa, Yuji

2015-07-17

Information-theoretic definitions for noise and disturbance in quantum measurements were given in [Phys. Rev. Lett. 112, 050401 (2014)] and a state-independent noise-disturbance uncertainty relation was obtained. Here, we derive a tight noise-disturbance uncertainty relation for complementary qubit observables and carry out an experimental test. Successive projective measurements on the neutron's spin-1/2 system, together with a correction procedure which reduces the disturbance, are performed. Our experimental results saturate the tight noise-disturbance uncertainty relation for qubits when an optimal correction procedure is applied.

Uncertainties in pipeline water percentage measurement

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Scott, Bentley N.

2005-07-01

Measurement of the quantity, density, average temperature and water percentage in petroleum pipelines has been an issue of prime importance. The methods of measurement have been investigated and have seen continued improvement over the years. Questions are being asked as to the reliability of the measurement of water in the oil through sampling systems originally designed and tested for a narrow range of densities. Today most facilities sampling systems handle vastly increased ranges of density and types of crude oils. Issues of pipeline integrity, product loss and production balances are placing further demands on the issues of accurate measurement. Water percentage is one area that has not received the attention necessary to understand the many factors involved in making a reliable measurement. A previous paper1 discussed the issues of uncertainty of the measurement from a statistical perspective. This paper will outline many of the issues of where the errors lie in the manual and automatic methods in use today. A routine to use the data collected by the analyzers in the on line system for validation of the measurements will be described. (author) (tk)

Evaluation of the combined measurement uncertainty in isotope dilution by MC-ICP-MS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fortunato, G.; Wunderli, S.

2003-01-01

The combination of metrological weighing, the measurement of isotope amount ratios by a multicollector inductively coupled plasma mass spectrometer (MC-ICP-MS) and the use of high-purity reference materials are the cornerstones to achieve improved results for the amount content of lead in wine by the reversed isotope dilution technique. Isotope dilution mass spectrometry (IDMS) and reversed IDMS have the potential to be a so-called primary method, with which close comparability and well-stated combined measurement uncertainties can be obtained. This work describes the detailed uncertainty budget determination using the ISO-GUM approach. The traces of lead in wine were separated from the matrix by ion exchange chromatography after HNO 3 /H 2 O 2 microwave digestion. The thallium isotope amount ratio (n( 205 Tl)/n( 203 Tl)) was used to correct for mass discrimination using an exponential model approach. The corrected lead isotope amount ratio n( 206 Pb)/n( 208 Pb) for the isotopic standard SRM 981 measured in our laboratory was compared with ratio values considered to be the least uncertain. The result has been compared in a so-called pilot study ''lead in wine'' organised by the CCQM (Comite Consultatif pour la Quantite de Matiere, BIPM, Paris; the highest measurement authority for analytical chemical measurements). The result for the lead amount content k(Pb) and the corresponding expanded uncertainty U given by our laboratory was:k(Pb)=1.329 x 10-10mol g-1 (amount content of lead in wine)U[k(Pb)]=1.0 x 10-12mol g-1 (expanded uncertainty U=k x uc, k=2) The uncertainty of the main influence parameter of the combined measurement uncertainty was determined to be the isotope amount ratio R 206,B of the blend between the enriched spike and the sample. (orig.)

A real-time assessment of measurement uncertainty in the experimental characterization of sprays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Panão, M R O; Moreira, A L N

2008-01-01

This work addresses the estimation of the measurement uncertainty of discrete probability distributions used in the characterization of sprays. A real-time assessment of this measurement uncertainty is further investigated, particularly concerning the informative quality of the measured distribution and the influence of acquiring additional information on the knowledge retrieved from statistical analysis. The informative quality is associated with the entropy concept as understood in information theory (Shannon entropy), normalized by the entropy of the most informative experiment. A new empirical correlation is derived between the error accuracy of a discrete cumulative probability distribution and the normalized Shannon entropy. The results include case studies using: (i) spray impingement measurements to study the applicability of the real-time assessment of measurement uncertainty, and (ii) the simulation of discrete probability distributions of unknown shape or function to test the applicability of the new correlation

Evaluation of the measurement uncertainty when measuring the resistance of solid isolating materials to tracking

Science.gov (United States)

Stare, E.; Beges, G.; Drnovsek, J.

2006-07-01

This paper presents the results of research into the measurement of the resistance of solid isolating materials to tracking. Two types of tracking were investigated: the proof tracking index (PTI) and the comparative tracking index (CTI). Evaluation of the measurement uncertainty in a case study was performed using a test method in accordance with the IEC 60112 standard. In the scope of the tests performed here, this particular test method was used to ensure the safety of electrical appliances. According to the EN ISO/IEC 17025 standard (EN ISO/IEC 17025), in the process of conformity assessment, the evaluation of the measurement uncertainty of the test method should be carried out. In the present article, possible influential parameters that are in accordance with the third and fourth editions of the standard IEC 60112 are discussed. The differences, ambiguities or lack of guidance referring to both editions of the standard are described in the article 'Ambiguities in technical standards—case study IEC 60112—measuring the resistance of solid isolating materials to tracking' (submitted for publication). Several hundred measurements were taken in the present experiments in order to form the basis for the results and conclusions presented. A specific problem of the test (according to the IEC 60112 standard) is the great variety of influential physical parameters (mechanical, electrical, chemical, etc) that can affect the results. At the end of the present article therefore, there is a histogram containing information on the contributions to the measurement uncertainty.

Effect of the sample matrix on measurement uncertainty in X-ray fluorescence analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Morgenstern, P.; Brueggemann, L.; Wennrich, R.

2005-01-01

The estimation of measurement uncertainty, with reference to univariate calibration functions, is discussed in detail in the Eurachem Guide 'Quantifying Uncertainty in Analytical Measurement'. The adoption of these recommendations to quantitative X-ray fluorescence analysis (XRF) involves basic problems which are above all due to the strong influence of the sample matrix on the analytical response. In XRF-analysis, the proposed recommendations are consequently applicable only to the matrix corrected response. The application is also restricted with regard to both the matrices and analyte concentrations. In this context the present studies are aimed at the problems to predict measurement uncertainty also with reference to more variable sample compositions. The corresponding investigations are focused on the use of the intensity of the Compton scattered tube line as an internal standard to assess the effect of the individual sample matrix on the analytical response relatively to a reference matrix. Based on this concept the estimation of the measurement uncertainty of an analyte presented in an unknown specimen can be predicted in consideration of the data obtained under defined matrix conditions

Tolerance analysis in manufacturing using process capability ratio with measurement uncertainty

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mahshid, Rasoul; Mansourvar, Zahra; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard

2017-01-01

. In this paper, a new statistical analysis was applied to manufactured products to assess achieved tolerances when the process is known while using capability ratio and expanded uncertainty. The analysis has benefits for process planning, determining actual precision limits, process optimization, troubleshoot......Tolerance analysis provides valuable information regarding performance of manufacturing process. It allows determining the maximum possible variation of a quality feature in production. Previous researches have focused on application of tolerance analysis to the design of mechanical assemblies...... malfunctioning existing part. The capability measure is based on a number of measurements performed on part’s quality variable. Since the ratio relies on measurements, elimination of any possible error has notable negative impact on results. Therefore, measurement uncertainty was used in combination with process...

Upper bounds on quantum uncertainty products and complexity measures

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Guerrero, Angel; Sanchez-Moreno, Pablo; Dehesa, Jesus S. [Department of Atomic, Molecular and Nuclear Physics, University of Granada, Granada (Spain); Department of Applied Mathematics, University of Granada, Granada (Spain) and Institute Carlos I for Computational and Theoretical Physics, University of Granada, Granada (Spain); Department of Atomic, Molecular and Nuclear Physics, University of Granada, Granada (Spain); Institute Carlos I for Computational and Theoretical Physics, University of Granada, Granada (Spain)

2011-10-15

The position-momentum Shannon and Renyi uncertainty products of general quantum systems are shown to be bounded not only from below (through the known uncertainty relations), but also from above in terms of the Heisenberg-Kennard product . Moreover, the Cramer-Rao, Fisher-Shannon, and Lopez-Ruiz, Mancini, and Calbet shape measures of complexity (whose lower bounds have been recently found) are also bounded from above. The improvement of these bounds for systems subject to spherically symmetric potentials is also explicitly given. Finally, applications to hydrogenic and oscillator-like systems are done.

Development of electrical efficiency measurement techniques for 10 kW-class SOFC system: Part II. Uncertainty estimation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tanaka, Yohei; Momma, Akihiko; Kato, Ken; Negishi, Akira; Takano, Kiyonami; Nozaki, Ken; Kato, Tohru

2009-01-01

Uncertainty of electrical efficiency measurement was investigated for a 10 kW-class SOFC system using town gas. Uncertainty of heating value measured by the gas chromatography method on a mole base was estimated as ±0.12% at 95% level of confidence. Micro-gas chromatography with/without CH 4 quantification may be able to reduce uncertainty of measurement. Calibration and uncertainty estimation methods are proposed for flow-rate measurement of town gas with thermal mass-flow meters or controllers. By adequate calibrations for flowmeters, flow rate of town gas or natural gas at 35 standard litters per minute can be measured within relative uncertainty ±1.0% at 95 % level of confidence. Uncertainty of power measurement can be as low as ±0.14% when a precise wattmeter is used and calibrated properly. It is clarified that electrical efficiency for non-pressurized 10 kW-class SOFC systems can be measured within ±1.0% relative uncertainty at 95% level of confidence with the developed techniques when the SOFC systems are operated relatively stably

Calculation of uncertainties; Calculo de incertidumbres

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Diaz-Asencio, Misael [Centro de Estudios Ambientales de Cienfuegos (Cuba)

2012-07-01

One of the most important aspects in relation to the quality assurance in any analytical activity is the estimation of measurement uncertainty. There is general agreement that 'the expression of the result of a measurement is not complete without specifying its associated uncertainty'. An analytical process is the mechanism for obtaining methodological information (measurand) of a material system (population). This implies the need for the definition of the problem, the choice of methods for sampling and measurement and proper execution of these activities for obtaining information. The result of a measurement is only an approximation or estimate of the value of the measurand, which is complete only when accompanied by an estimate of the uncertainty of the analytical process. According to the 'Vocabulary of Basic and General Terms in Metrology' measurement uncertainty' is the parameter associated with the result of a measurement that characterizes the dispersion of the values that could reasonably be attributed to the measurand (or magnitude). This parameter could be a standard deviation or a confidence interval. The uncertainty evaluation requires detailed look at all possible sources, but not disproportionately. We can make a good estimate of the uncertainty concentrating efforts on the largest contributions. The key steps of the process of determining the uncertainty in the measurements are: - the specification of the measurand; - identification of the sources of uncertainty - the quantification of individual components of uncertainty, - calculate the combined standard uncertainty; - report of uncertainty. [Spanish] Uno de los aspectos mas importantes en relacion con el aseguramiento de la calidad en cualquier actividad analitica es la estimacion de la incertidumbre de la medicion. Existe el acuerdo general que 'la expresion del resultado de una medicion no esta completa sin especificar su incertidumbre asociada'. Un proceso analitico es el mecanismo

Measurement of nuclear activity with Ge detectors and its uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cortes P, C.A.

1999-01-01

The objective of this work is to analyse the influence magnitudes which affect the activity measurement of gamma transmitter isolated radioactive sources. They prepared by means of the gravimetric method, as well as, determining the uncertainty of such measurement when this is carried out with a gamma spectrometer system with a germanium detector. This work is developed in five chapters: In the first one, named Basic principles it is made a brief description about the meaning of the word Measurement and its implications and the necessaries concepts are presented which are used in this work. In the second chapter it is exposed the gravimetric method used for the manufacture of the gamma transmitter isolated radioactive sources, it is tackled the problem to determine the main influence magnitudes which affect in the measurement of their activity and the respective correction factors and their uncertainties are deduced. The third chapter describes the gamma spectrometry system which is used in this work for the measurement of the activity of isolated sources and also its performance and experimental arrangement that it is used. In the fourth chapter are applied the three previous items with the object of determining the uncertainty which would be obtained in the measurement of an isolated radioactive source elaborated with the gravimetric method in the experimental conditions less favourable predicted above the obtained results from the chapter two. The conclusions are presented in the fifth chapter and they are applied to establish the optimum conditions for the measurement of the activity of a gamma transmitter isolated radioactive source with a spectrometer with germanium detector. (Author)

Developing scales measuring disorder-specific intolerance of uncertainty (DSIU) : a new perspective on transdiagnostic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Thibodeau, Michel A; Carleton, R Nicholas; McEvoy, Peter M; Zvolensky, Michael J; Brandt, Charles P; Boelen, Paul A; Mahoney, Alison E J; Deacon, Brett J; Asmundson, Gordon J G

Intolerance of uncertainty (IU) is a construct of growing prominence in literature on anxiety disorders and major depressive disorder. Existing measures of IU do not define the uncertainty that respondents perceive as distressing. To address this limitation, we developed eight scales measuring

Role of turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties of acoutic Doppler current profiler discharge measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Tarrab, Leticia; Garcia, Carlos M.; Cantero, Mariano I.; Oberg, Kevin

2012-01-01

This work presents a systematic analysis quantifying the role of the presence of turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties (random errors) of acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) discharge measurements from moving platforms. Data sets of three-dimensional flow velocities with high temporal and spatial resolution were generated from direct numerical simulation (DNS) of turbulent open channel flow. Dimensionless functions relating parameters quantifying the uncertainty in discharge measurements due to flow turbulence (relative variance and relative maximum random error) to sampling configuration were developed from the DNS simulations and then validated with field-scale discharge measurements. The validated functions were used to evaluate the role of the presence of flow turbulence fluctuations on uncertainties in ADCP discharge measurements. The results of this work indicate that random errors due to the flow turbulence are significant when: (a) a low number of transects is used for a discharge measurement, and (b) measurements are made in shallow rivers using high boat velocity (short time for the boat to cross a flow turbulence structure).

Measurement uncertainty of ester number, acid number and patchouli alcohol of patchouli oil produced in Yogyakarta

Science.gov (United States)

Istiningrum, Reni Banowati; Saepuloh, Azis; Jannah, Wirdatul; Aji, Didit Waskito

2017-03-01

Yogyakarta is one of patchouli oil distillation center in Indonesia. The quality of patchouli oil greatly affect its market price. Therefore, testing quality of patchouli oil parameters is an important concern, one through determination of the measurement uncertainty. This study will determine the measurement uncertainty of ester number, acid number and content of patchouli alcohol through a bottom up approach. Source contributor to measurement uncertainty of ester number is a mass of the sample, a blank and sample titration volume, the molar mass of KOH, HCl normality, and replication. While the source contributor of the measurement uncertainty of acid number is the mass of the sample, the sample titration volume, the relative mass and normality of KOH, and repetition. Determination of patchouli alcohol by Gas Chromatography considers the sources of measurement uncertainty only from repeatability because reference materials are not available.

Research on uncertainty evaluation measure and method of voltage sag severity

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, X. N.; Wei, J.; Ye, S. Y.; Chen, B.; Long, C.

2018-01-01

Voltage sag is an inevitable serious problem of power quality in power system. This paper focuses on a general summarization and reviews on the concepts, indices and evaluation methods about voltage sag severity. Considering the complexity and uncertainty of influencing factors, damage degree, the characteristics and requirements of voltage sag severity in the power source-network-load sides, the measure concepts and their existing conditions, evaluation indices and methods of voltage sag severity have been analyzed. Current evaluation techniques, such as stochastic theory, fuzzy logic, as well as their fusion, are reviewed in detail. An index system about voltage sag severity is provided for comprehensive study. The main aim of this paper is to propose thought and method of severity research based on advanced uncertainty theory and uncertainty measure. This study may be considered as a valuable guide for researchers who are interested in the domain of voltage sag severity.

Measurement Uncertainty Evaluation in Dimensional X-ray Computed Tomography Using the Bootstrap Method

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hiller, Jochen; Genta, Gianfranco; Barbato, Giulio

2014-01-01

measurement processes, e.g., with tactile systems, also due to factors related to systematic errors, mainly caused by specific CT image characteristics. In this paper we propose a simulation-based framework for measurement uncertainty evaluation in dimensional CT using the bootstrap method. In a case study...... the problem concerning measurement uncertainties was addressed with bootstrap and successfully applied to ball-bar CT measurements. Results obtained enabled extension to more complex shapes such as actual industrial components as we show by tests on a hollow cylinder workpiece....

Investment in flood protection measures under climate change uncertainty. An investment decision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruin, Karianne de

2012-11-01

Recent river flooding in Europe has triggered debates among scientists and policymakers on future projections of flood frequency and the need for adaptive investments, such as flood protection measures. Because there exists uncertainty about the impact of climate change of flood risk, such investments require a careful analysis of expected benefits and costs. The objective of this paper is to show how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in flood protection measures. We develop a model that simulates optimal decision making in flood protection, it incorporates flexible timing of investment decisions and scientific uncertainty on the extent of climate change impacts. This model allows decision-makers to cope with the uncertain impacts of climate change on the frequency and damage of river flood events and minimises the risk of under- or over-investment. One of the innovative elements is that we explicitly distinguish between structural and non-structural flood protection measures. Our results show that the optimal investment decision today depends strongly on the cost structure of the adaptation measures and the discount rate, especially the ratio of fixed and weighted annual costs of the measures. A higher level of annual flood damage and later resolution of uncertainty in time increases the optimal investment. Furthermore, the optimal investment decision today is influenced by the possibility of the decision-maker to adjust his decision at a future moment in time.(auth)

Uncertainty quantification for radiation measurements: Bottom-up error variance estimation using calibration information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Burr, T.; Croft, S.; Krieger, T.; Martin, K.; Norman, C.; Walsh, S.

2016-01-01

One example of top-down uncertainty quantification (UQ) involves comparing two or more measurements on each of multiple items. One example of bottom-up UQ expresses a measurement result as a function of one or more input variables that have associated errors, such as a measured count rate, which individually (or collectively) can be evaluated for impact on the uncertainty in the resulting measured value. In practice, it is often found that top-down UQ exhibits larger error variances than bottom-up UQ, because some error sources are present in the fielded assay methods used in top-down UQ that are not present (or not recognized) in the assay studies used in bottom-up UQ. One would like better consistency between the two approaches in order to claim understanding of the measurement process. The purpose of this paper is to refine bottom-up uncertainty estimation by using calibration information so that if there are no unknown error sources, the refined bottom-up uncertainty estimate will agree with the top-down uncertainty estimate to within a specified tolerance. Then, in practice, if the top-down uncertainty estimate is larger than the refined bottom-up uncertainty estimate by more than the specified tolerance, there must be omitted sources of error beyond those predicted from calibration uncertainty. The paper develops a refined bottom-up uncertainty approach for four cases of simple linear calibration: (1) inverse regression with negligible error in predictors, (2) inverse regression with non-negligible error in predictors, (3) classical regression followed by inversion with negligible error in predictors, and (4) classical regression followed by inversion with non-negligible errors in predictors. Our illustrations are of general interest, but are drawn from our experience with nuclear material assay by non-destructive assay. The main example we use is gamma spectroscopy that applies the enrichment meter principle. Previous papers that ignore error in predictors

SU-F-T-301: Planar Dose Pass Rate Inflation Due to the MapCHECK Measurement Uncertainty Function

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bailey, D; Spaans, J; Kumaraswamy, L; Podgorsak, M

2016-01-01

Purpose: To quantify the effect of the Measurement Uncertainty function on planar dosimetry pass rates, as analyzed with Sun Nuclear Corporation analytic software (“MapCHECK” or “SNC Patient”). This optional function is toggled on by default upon software installation, and automatically increases the user-defined dose percent difference (%Diff) tolerance for each planar dose comparison. Methods: Dose planes from 109 IMRT fields and 40 VMAT arcs were measured with the MapCHECK 2 diode array, and compared to calculated planes from a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates were calculated within the SNC analytic software using varying calculation parameters, including Measurement Uncertainty on and off. By varying the %Diff criterion for each dose comparison performed with Measurement Uncertainty turned off, an effective %Diff criterion was defined for each field/arc corresponding to the pass rate achieved with MapCHECK Uncertainty turned on. Results: For 3%/3mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.8–1.1% average, depending on plan type and calculation technique, for an average pass rate increase of 1.0–3.5% (maximum +8.7%). For 2%, 2 mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.7–1.2% average, for an average pass rate increase of 3.5–8.1% (maximum +14.2%). The largest increases in pass rate are generally seen with poorly-matched planar dose comparisons; the MapCHECK Uncertainty effect is markedly smaller as pass rates approach 100%. Conclusion: The Measurement Uncertainty function may substantially inflate planar dose comparison pass rates for typical IMRT and VMAT planes. The types of uncertainties incorporated into the function (and their associated quantitative estimates) as described in the software user’s manual may not accurately estimate realistic measurement uncertainty for the user’s measurement conditions. Pass rates listed in published

SU-F-T-301: Planar Dose Pass Rate Inflation Due to the MapCHECK Measurement Uncertainty Function

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bailey, D [Northside Hospital Cancer Institute, Atlanta, GA (United States); Spaans, J; Kumaraswamy, L; Podgorsak, M [Roswell Park Cancer Institute, Buffalo, NY (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: To quantify the effect of the Measurement Uncertainty function on planar dosimetry pass rates, as analyzed with Sun Nuclear Corporation analytic software (“MapCHECK” or “SNC Patient”). This optional function is toggled on by default upon software installation, and automatically increases the user-defined dose percent difference (%Diff) tolerance for each planar dose comparison. Methods: Dose planes from 109 IMRT fields and 40 VMAT arcs were measured with the MapCHECK 2 diode array, and compared to calculated planes from a commercial treatment planning system. Pass rates were calculated within the SNC analytic software using varying calculation parameters, including Measurement Uncertainty on and off. By varying the %Diff criterion for each dose comparison performed with Measurement Uncertainty turned off, an effective %Diff criterion was defined for each field/arc corresponding to the pass rate achieved with MapCHECK Uncertainty turned on. Results: For 3%/3mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.8–1.1% average, depending on plan type and calculation technique, for an average pass rate increase of 1.0–3.5% (maximum +8.7%). For 2%, 2 mm analysis, the Measurement Uncertainty function increases the user-defined %Diff by 0.7–1.2% average, for an average pass rate increase of 3.5–8.1% (maximum +14.2%). The largest increases in pass rate are generally seen with poorly-matched planar dose comparisons; the MapCHECK Uncertainty effect is markedly smaller as pass rates approach 100%. Conclusion: The Measurement Uncertainty function may substantially inflate planar dose comparison pass rates for typical IMRT and VMAT planes. The types of uncertainties incorporated into the function (and their associated quantitative estimates) as described in the software user’s manual may not accurately estimate realistic measurement uncertainty for the user’s measurement conditions. Pass rates listed in published

Application of probabilistic modelling for the uncertainty evaluation of alignment measurements of large accelerator magnets assemblies

Science.gov (United States)

Doytchinov, I.; Tonnellier, X.; Shore, P.; Nicquevert, B.; Modena, M.; Mainaud Durand, H.

2018-05-01

Micrometric assembly and alignment requirements for future particle accelerators, and especially large assemblies, create the need for accurate uncertainty budgeting of alignment measurements. Measurements and uncertainties have to be accurately stated and traceable, to international standards, for metre-long sized assemblies, in the range of tens of µm. Indeed, these hundreds of assemblies will be produced and measured by several suppliers around the world, and will have to be integrated into a single machine. As part of the PACMAN project at CERN, we proposed and studied a practical application of probabilistic modelling of task-specific alignment uncertainty by applying a simulation by constraints calibration method. Using this method, we calibrated our measurement model using available data from ISO standardised tests (10360 series) for the metrology equipment. We combined this model with reference measurements and analysis of the measured data to quantify the actual specific uncertainty of each alignment measurement procedure. Our methodology was successfully validated against a calibrated and traceable 3D artefact as part of an international inter-laboratory study. The validated models were used to study the expected alignment uncertainty and important sensitivity factors in measuring the shortest and longest of the compact linear collider study assemblies, 0.54 m and 2.1 m respectively. In both cases, the laboratory alignment uncertainty was within the targeted uncertainty budget of 12 µm (68% confidence level). It was found that the remaining uncertainty budget for any additional alignment error compensations, such as the thermal drift error due to variation in machine operation heat load conditions, must be within 8.9 µm and 9.8 µm (68% confidence level) respectively.

Use of Commericially Available Software in an Attribute Measurement System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

MacArthur, Duncan W.; Bracken, David S.; Carrillo, Louis A.; Elmont, Timothy H.; Frame, Katherine C.; Hirsch, Karen L.

2005-01-01

A major issue in international safeguards of nuclear materials is the ability to verify that processes and materials in nuclear facilities are consistent with declaration without revealing sensitive information. An attribute measurement system (AMS) is a non-destructive assay (NDA) system that utilizes an information barrier to protect potentially sensitive information about the measurement item. A key component is the software utilized for operator interface, data collection, analysis, and attribute determination, as well as the operating system under which they are implemented. Historically, custom software has been used almost exclusively in transparency applications, and it is unavoidable that some amount of custom software is needed. The focus of this paper is to explore the extent to which commercially available software may be used and the relative merits.

Analysis and evaluation of regulatory uncertainties in 10 CFR 60 subparts B and E

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Weiner, R.F.; Patrick, W.C.

1990-01-01

This paper presents an attribute analysis scheme for prioritizing the resolution of regulatory uncertainties. Attributes are presented which assist in identifying the need for timeliness and durability of the resolution of an uncertainty

Measurement uncertainty in single, double and triple isotope dilution mass spectrometry.

Science.gov (United States)

Vogl, Jochen

2012-02-15

Triple IDMS has been applied for the first time to the quantification of element concentrations. It has been compared with single and double IDMS obtained on the same sample set in order to evaluate the advantages and disadvantages of triple IDMS over single and double IDMS as an analytical reference procedure. The measurement results of single, double and triple IDMS are indistinguishable, considering rounding due to the individual measurement uncertainties. As expected, the relative expanded uncertainties (k = 2) achieved with double IDMS (0.08%) are dramatically smaller than those obtained with single IDMS (1.4%). Triple IDMS yields the smallest relative expanded uncertainties (k = 2, 0.077%) unfortunately at the expense of a much higher workload. Nevertheless triple IDMS has the huge advantage that the isotope ratio of the spike does not need to be determined. Elements with high memory effects, highly enriched spikes or highest metrological requirements may be typical applications for triple IDMS. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Measurement uncertainty. A practical guide for Secondary Standards Dosimetry Laboratories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2008-05-01

The need for international traceability for radiation dose measurements has been understood since the early nineteen-sixties. The benefits of high dosimetric accuracy were recognized, particularly in radiotherapy, where the outcome of treatments is dependent on the radiation dose delivered to patients. When considering radiation protection dosimetry, the uncertainty may be greater than for therapy, but proper traceability of the measurements is no less important. To ensure harmonization and consistency in radiation measurements, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) and the World Health Organization (WHO) created a Network of Secondary Standards Dosimetry Laboratories (SSDLs) in 1976. An SSDL is a laboratory that has been designated by the competent national authorities to undertake the duty of providing the necessary link in the traceability chain of radiation dosimetry to the international measurement system (SI, for Systeme International) for radiation metrology users. The role of the SSDLs is crucial in providing traceable calibrations; they disseminate calibrations at specific radiation qualities appropriate for the use of radiation measuring instruments. Historically, although the first SSDLs were established mainly to provide radiotherapy level calibrations, the scope of their work has expanded over the years. Today, many SSDLs provide traceability for radiation protection measurements and diagnostic radiology in addition to radiotherapy. Some SSDLs, with the appropriate facilities and expertise, also conduct quality audits of the clinical use of the calibrated dosimeters - for example, by providing postal dosimeters for dose comparisons for medical institutions or on-site dosimetry audits with an ion chamber and other appropriate equipment. The requirements for traceable and reliable calibrations are becoming more important. For example, for international trade where radiation products are manufactured within strict quality control systems, it is

Estimation of uncertainty of measurements of 3D mechanisms after kinematic calibration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takamasu, K; Sato, O; Shimojima, K; Takahashi, S; Furutani, R

2005-01-01

Calibration methods for 3D mechanisms are necessary to use the mechanisms as coordinate measuring machines. The calibration method of coordinate measuring machine using artifacts, the artifact calibration method, is proposed in taking account of traceability of the mechanism. There are kinematic parameters and form-deviation parameters in geometric parameters for describing the forward kinematic of the mechanism. In this article, the estimation methods of uncertainties using the calibrated coordinate measuring machine after the calibration are formulated. Firstly, the calculation method which takes out the values of kinematic parameters using least squares method is formulated. Secondly, the estimation value of uncertainty of the measuring machine is calculated using the error propagation method

Passive active neutron radioassay measurement uncertainty for combustible and glass waste matrices

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.; Yoon, Woo Y.

1997-01-01

Using a modified statistical sampling and verification approach, total uncertainty of INEL's Passive Active Neutron (PAN) radioassay system was evaluated for combustible and glass content codes. Waste structure and content of 100 randomly selected drums in each the waste categories were computer modeled based on review of real-time radiography video tapes. Specific quantities of Pu were added to the drum models according to an experimental design. These drum models were then submitted to the Monte Carlo Neutron Photon code processing and subsequent calculations to produce simulated PAN system measurements. The reported Pu masses from the simulation runs were compared with the corresponding input masses. Analysis of the measurement errors produced uncertainty estimates. This paper presents results of the uncertainty calculations and compares them to previous reported results obtained for graphite waste

Approach to determine measurement uncertainty in complex nanosystems with multiparametric dependencies and multivariate output quantities

Science.gov (United States)

Hampel, B.; Liu, B.; Nording, F.; Ostermann, J.; Struszewski, P.; Langfahl-Klabes, J.; Bieler, M.; Bosse, H.; Güttler, B.; Lemmens, P.; Schilling, M.; Tutsch, R.

2018-03-01

In many cases, the determination of the measurement uncertainty of complex nanosystems provides unexpected challenges. This is in particular true for complex systems with many degrees of freedom, i.e. nanosystems with multiparametric dependencies and multivariate output quantities. The aim of this paper is to address specific questions arising during the uncertainty calculation of such systems. This includes the division of the measurement system into subsystems and the distinction between systematic and statistical influences. We demonstrate that, even if the physical systems under investigation are very different, the corresponding uncertainty calculation can always be realized in a similar manner. This is exemplarily shown in detail for two experiments, namely magnetic nanosensors and ultrafast electro-optical sampling of complex time-domain signals. For these examples the approach for uncertainty calculation following the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM) is explained, in which correlations between multivariate output quantities are captured. To illustate the versatility of the proposed approach, its application to other experiments, namely nanometrological instruments for terahertz microscopy, dimensional scanning probe microscopy, and measurement of concentration of molecules using surface enhanced Raman scattering, is shortly discussed in the appendix. We believe that the proposed approach provides a simple but comprehensive orientation for uncertainty calculation in the discussed measurement scenarios and can also be applied to similar or related situations.

Different top-down approaches to estimate measurement uncertainty of whole blood tacrolimus mass concentration values.

Science.gov (United States)

Rigo-Bonnin, Raül; Blanco-Font, Aurora; Canalias, Francesca

2018-05-08

Values of mass concentration of tacrolimus in whole blood are commonly used by the clinicians for monitoring the status of a transplant patient and for checking whether the administered dose of tacrolimus is effective. So, clinical laboratories must provide results as accurately as possible. Measurement uncertainty can allow ensuring reliability of these results. The aim of this study was to estimate measurement uncertainty of whole blood mass concentration tacrolimus values obtained by UHPLC-MS/MS using two top-down approaches: the single laboratory validation approach and the proficiency testing approach. For the single laboratory validation approach, we estimated the uncertainties associated to the intermediate imprecision (using long-term internal quality control data) and the bias (utilizing a certified reference material). Next, we combined them together with the uncertainties related to the calibrators-assigned values to obtain a combined uncertainty for, finally, to calculate the expanded uncertainty. For the proficiency testing approach, the uncertainty was estimated in a similar way that the single laboratory validation approach but considering data from internal and external quality control schemes to estimate the uncertainty related to the bias. The estimated expanded uncertainty for single laboratory validation, proficiency testing using internal and external quality control schemes were 11.8%, 13.2%, and 13.0%, respectively. After performing the two top-down approaches, we observed that their uncertainty results were quite similar. This fact would confirm that either two approaches could be used to estimate the measurement uncertainty of whole blood mass concentration tacrolimus values in clinical laboratories. Copyright © 2018 The Canadian Society of Clinical Chemists. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Definition of free form object for low uncertainty measurements on cooridnate measuring machines

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Savio, Enrico; De Chiffre, Leonardo

This report is made as a part of the project Easytrac, an EU project under the programme: Competitive and Sustainable Growth: Contract No: G6RD-CT-2000-00188, coordinated by UNIMETRIK S.A. (Spain). The project is concerned with low uncertainty calibrations on coordinate measuring machines. The Ce...

International target values 2000 for measurement uncertainties in safeguarding nuclear materials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aigner, H.; Binner, R.; Kuhn, E.

2001-01-01

The IAEA has prepared a revised and updated version of International Target Values (ITVs) for uncertainty components in measurements of nuclear material. The ITVs represent uncertainties to be considered in judging the reliability of analytical techniques applied to industrial nuclear and fissile material subject to safeguards verification. The tabulated values represent estimates of the 'state of the practice' which ought to be achievable under routine conditions by adequately equipped, experienced laboratories. The ITVs 2000 are intended to be used by plant operators and safeguards organizations as a reference of the quality of measurements achievable in nuclear material accountancy, and for planning purposes. The IAEA prepared a draft of a technical report presenting the proposed ITVs 2000, and in April 2000 the chairmen or officers of the panels or organizations listed below were invited to co- author the report and to submit the draft to a discussion by their panels and organizations. Euratom Safeguards Inspectorate, ESAKDA Working Group on Destructive Analysis, ESARDA Working Group on Non Destructive Analysis, Institute of Nuclear Material Management, Japanese Expert Group on ITV-2000, ISO Working Group on Analyses in Spent Fuel Reprocessing, ISO Working Group on Analyses in Uranium Fuel Fabrication, ISO Working Group on Analyses in MOX Fuel Fabrication, Agencia Brasileno-Argentina de Contabilidad y Control de Materiales Nucleares (ABACC). Comments from the above groups were received and incorporated into the final version of the document, completed in April 2001. The ITVs 2000 represent target standard uncertainties, expressing the precision achievable under stipulated conditions. These conditions typically fall in one of the two following categories: 'repeatability conditions' normally encountered during the measurements done within one inspection period; or 'reproducibility conditions' involving additional sources of measurement variability such as

The Harm that Underestimation of Uncertainty Does to Our Community: A Case Study Using Sunspot Area Measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Munoz-Jaramillo, Andres

2017-08-01

Data products in heliospheric physics are very often provided without clear estimates of uncertainty. From helioseismology in the solar interior, all the way to in situ solar wind measurements beyond 1AU, uncertainty estimates are typically hard for users to find (buried inside long documents that are separate from the data products), or simply non-existent.There are two main reasons why uncertainty measurements are hard to find:1. Understanding instrumental systematic errors is given a much higher priority inside instrumental teams.2. The desire to perfectly understand all sources of uncertainty postpones indefinitely the actual quantification of uncertainty in our measurements.Using the cross calibration of 200 years of sunspot area measurements as a case study, in this presentation we will discuss the negative impact that inadequate measurements of uncertainty have on users, through the appearance of toxic and unnecessary controversies, and data providers, through the creation of unrealistic expectations regarding the information that can be extracted from their data. We will discuss how empirical estimates of uncertainty represent a very good alternative to not providing any estimates at all, and finalize by discussing the bare essentials that should become our standard practice for future instruments and surveys.

Inconclusive quantum measurements and decisions under uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Yukalov, Vyacheslav; Sornette, Didier

2016-04-01

We give a mathematical definition for the notion of inconclusive quantum measurements. In physics, such measurements occur at intermediate stages of a complex measurement procedure, with the final measurement result being operationally testable. Since the mathematical structure of Quantum Decision Theory has been developed in analogy with the theory of quantum measurements, the inconclusive quantum measurements correspond, in Quantum Decision Theory, to intermediate stages of decision making in the process of taking decisions under uncertainty. The general form of the quantum probability for a composite event is the sum of a utility factor, describing a rational evaluation of the considered prospect, and of an attraction factor, characterizing irrational, subconscious attitudes of the decision maker. Despite the involved irrationality, the probability of prospects can be evaluated. This is equivalent to the possibility of calculating quantum probabilities without specifying hidden variables. We formulate a general way of evaluation, based on the use of non-informative priors. As an example, we suggest the explanation of the decoy effect. Our quantitative predictions are in very good agreement with experimental data.

Inconclusive quantum measurements and decisions under uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vyacheslav I. Yukalov

2016-04-01

Full Text Available We give a mathematical definition for the notion of inconclusive quantum measurements.In physics, such measurements occur at intermediate stages of a complex measurement procedure, with the final measurement result being operationally testable. Since the mathematical structure of Quantum Decision Theory has been developed in analogy withthe theory of quantum measurements, the inconclusive quantum measurements correspond,in Quantum Decision Theory, to intermediate stages of decision making in the process of taking decisions under uncertainty. The general form of the quantum probability for a composite event is the sum of a utility factor, describing a rational evaluationof the considered prospect, and of an attraction factor, characterizing irrational,subconscious attitudes of the decision maker. Despite the involved irrationality, the probability of prospects can be evaluated. This is equivalent to the possibility of calculating quantum probabilities without specifying hidden variables. We formulate a general way of evaluation, based on the use of non-informative priors. As an example,we suggest the explanation of the decoy effect. Our quantitative predictions are in very good agreement with experimental data.

Religion in the face of uncertainty: an uncertainty-identity theory account of religiousness.

Science.gov (United States)

Hogg, Michael A; Adelman, Janice R; Blagg, Robert D

2010-02-01

The authors characterize religions as social groups and religiosity as the extent to which a person identifies with a religion, subscribes to its ideology or worldview, and conforms to its normative practices. They argue that religions have attributes that make them well suited to reduce feelings of self-uncertainty. According to uncertainty-identity theory, people are motivated to reduce feelings of uncertainty about or reflecting on self; and identification with groups, particularly highly entitative groups, is a very effective way to reduce uncertainty. All groups provide belief systems and normative prescriptions related to everyday life. However, religions also address the nature of existence, invoking sacred entities and associated rituals and ceremonies. They are entitative groups that provide a moral compass and rules for living that pervade a person's life, making them particularly attractive in times of uncertainty. The authors document data supporting their analysis and discuss conditions that transform religiosity into religious zealotry and extremism.

A Monte-Carlo investigation of the uncertainty of acoustic decay measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cabo, David Pérez; Seoane, Manuel A. Sobreira; Jacobsen, Finn

2012-01-01

Measurement of acoustic decays can be problematic at low frequencies: short decays cannot be evaluated accurately. Several effects influencing the evaluation will be reviewed in this paper. As new contribution, the measurement uncertainty due to one-third octave band pass filters will be analysed...

SWEPP PAN assay system uncertainty analysis: Passive mode measurements of graphite waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.; Yoon, Woo Y.

1997-07-01

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory is being used as a temporary storage facility for transuranic waste generated by the U.S. Nuclear Weapons program at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Golden, Colorado. Currently, there is a large effort in progress to prepare to ship this waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. In order to meet the TRU Waste Characterization Quality Assurance Program Plan nondestructive assay compliance requirements and quality assurance objectives, it is necessary to determine the total uncertainty of the radioassay results produced by the Stored Waste Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP) Passive Active Neutron (PAN) radioassay system. To this end a modified statistical sampling and verification approach has been developed to determine the total uncertainty of a PAN measurement. In this approach the total performance of the PAN nondestructive assay system is simulated using computer models of the assay system and the resultant output is compared with the known input to assess the total uncertainty. This paper is one of a series of reports quantifying the results of the uncertainty analysis of the PAN system measurements for specific waste types and measurement modes. In particular this report covers passive mode measurements of weapons grade plutonium-contaminated graphite molds contained in 208 liter drums (waste code 300). The validity of the simulation approach is verified by comparing simulated output against results from measurements using known plutonium sources and a surrogate graphite waste form drum. For actual graphite waste form conditions, a set of 50 cases covering a statistical sampling of the conditions exhibited in graphite wastes was compiled using a Latin hypercube statistical sampling approach

Measurement Uncertainty Relations for Discrete Observables: Relative Entropy Formulation

Science.gov (United States)

Barchielli, Alberto; Gregoratti, Matteo; Toigo, Alessandro

2018-02-01

We introduce a new information-theoretic formulation of quantum measurement uncertainty relations, based on the notion of relative entropy between measurement probabilities. In the case of a finite-dimensional system and for any approximate joint measurement of two target discrete observables, we define the entropic divergence as the maximal total loss of information occurring in the approximation at hand. For fixed target observables, we study the joint measurements minimizing the entropic divergence, and we prove the general properties of its minimum value. Such a minimum is our uncertainty lower bound: the total information lost by replacing the target observables with their optimal approximations, evaluated at the worst possible state. The bound turns out to be also an entropic incompatibility degree, that is, a good information-theoretic measure of incompatibility: indeed, it vanishes if and only if the target observables are compatible, it is state-independent, and it enjoys all the invariance properties which are desirable for such a measure. In this context, we point out the difference between general approximate joint measurements and sequential approximate joint measurements; to do this, we introduce a separate index for the tradeoff between the error of the first measurement and the disturbance of the second one. By exploiting the symmetry properties of the target observables, exact values, lower bounds and optimal approximations are evaluated in two different concrete examples: (1) a couple of spin-1/2 components (not necessarily orthogonal); (2) two Fourier conjugate mutually unbiased bases in prime power dimension. Finally, the entropic incompatibility degree straightforwardly generalizes to the case of many observables, still maintaining all its relevant properties; we explicitly compute it for three orthogonal spin-1/2 components.

Uncertainty modelling of real-time observation of a moving object: photogrammetric measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Ulrich, Thomas

2015-04-01

Photogrametric systems are widely used in the field of industrial metrology to measure kinematic tasks such as tracking robot movements. In order to assess spatiotemporal deviations of a kinematic movement, it is crucial to have a reliable uncertainty of the kinematic measurements. Common methods to evaluate the uncertainty in kinematic measurements include approximations specified by the manufactures, various analytical adjustment methods and Kalman filters. Here a hybrid system estimator in conjunction with a kinematic measurement model is applied. This method can be applied to processes which include various types of kinematic behaviour, constant velocity, variable acceleration or variable turn rates. Additionally, it has been shown that the approach is in accordance with GUM (Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement). The approach is compared to the Kalman filter using simulated data to achieve an overall error calculation. Furthermore, the new approach is used for the analysis of a rotating system as this system has both a constant and a variable turn rate. As the new approach reduces overshoots it is more appropriate for analysing kinematic processes than the Kalman filter. In comparison with the manufacturer’s approximations, the new approach takes account of kinematic behaviour, with an improved description of the real measurement process. Therefore, this approach is well-suited to the analysis of kinematic processes with unknown changes in kinematic behaviour.

A study on the relationship between measurement uncertainty and the size of the disk gauge used to calibrate a straightness measuring system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fujimoto, Ikumatsu; Nishimura, Kunitoshi; Takatuji, Toshiyuki; Pyun, Young-Sik

2011-01-01

An autonomous method for calibrating the zero difference for the three-point method of surface straightness measurement is presented and discussed with respect to the relationship between the measurement uncertainty and the size of the disk gauge used for calibration. In this method, the disk gauge is used in two steps. In the first step, the disk gauge rotates a few revolutions and moves parallel to three displacement sensors built into a holder. In the second step, the geometrical parameters between the sensors and the disk gauge are acquired, and the zero differences are computed by our recently proposed algorithm. Finally, the uncertainty of the zero differences is analyzed and simulated numerically, and the relationship between the disk gauge radius and the measurement uncertainty is calculated. The use of a disk gauge of larger radius results in smaller uncertainty of straightness measurement

Alignment measurements uncertainties for large assemblies using probabilistic analysis techniques

CERN Document Server

AUTHOR|(CDS)2090816; Almond, Heather

Big science and ambitious industrial projects continually push forward with technical requirements beyond the grasp of conventional engineering techniques. Example of those are ultra-high precision requirements in the field of celestial telescopes, particle accelerators and aerospace industry. Such extreme requirements are limited largely by the capability of the metrology used, namely, it’s uncertainty in relation to the alignment tolerance required. The current work was initiated as part of Maria Curie European research project held at CERN, Geneva aiming to answer those challenges as related to future accelerators requiring alignment of 2 m large assemblies to tolerances in the 10 µm range. The thesis has found several gaps in current knowledge limiting such capability. Among those was the lack of application of state of the art uncertainty propagation methods in alignment measurements metrology. Another major limiting factor found was the lack of uncertainty statements in the thermal errors compensatio...

Uncertainty of slip measurements in a cutting system of converting machinery for diapers production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D’Aponte F.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper slip measurements are described between the peripheral surfaces of knife and a not driven anvil cylinders in a high velocity, high quality cutting unit of a diaper production line. Laboratory tests have been carried out on a test bench with real scale components for possible on line application of the method. With reference to both starting and steady state conditions correlations with the process parameters have been found, achieving a very satisfactory reduction of the slip between the knife cylinder and the not driven anvil one. Accuracy evaluation of measurements allowed us to validate the obtained information and to evaluate the detection threshold of the measurement method in the present configuration The analysis of specific uncertainty contributions to the whole uncertainty could be also used, to further reduce the requested uncertainty of the measurement method.

Online updating and uncertainty quantification using nonstationary output-only measurement

Science.gov (United States)

Yuen, Ka-Veng; Kuok, Sin-Chi

2016-01-01

Extended Kalman filter (EKF) is widely adopted for state estimation and parametric identification of dynamical systems. In this algorithm, it is required to specify the covariance matrices of the process noise and measurement noise based on prior knowledge. However, improper assignment of these noise covariance matrices leads to unreliable estimation and misleading uncertainty estimation on the system state and model parameters. Furthermore, it may induce diverging estimation. To resolve these problems, we propose a Bayesian probabilistic algorithm for online estimation of the noise parameters which are used to characterize the noise covariance matrices. There are three major appealing features of the proposed approach. First, it resolves the divergence problem in the conventional usage of EKF due to improper choice of the noise covariance matrices. Second, the proposed approach ensures the reliability of the uncertainty quantification. Finally, since the noise parameters are allowed to be time-varying, nonstationary process noise and/or measurement noise are explicitly taken into account. Examples using stationary/nonstationary response of linear/nonlinear time-varying dynamical systems are presented to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach. Furthermore, comparison with the conventional usage of EKF will be provided to reveal the necessity of the proposed approach for reliable model updating and uncertainty quantification.

Including uncertainty in hazard analysis through fuzzy measures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bott, T.F.; Eisenhawer, S.W.

1997-12-01

This paper presents a method for capturing the uncertainty expressed by an Hazard Analysis (HA) expert team when estimating the frequencies and consequences of accident sequences and provides a sound mathematical framework for propagating this uncertainty to the risk estimates for these accident sequences. The uncertainty is readily expressed as distributions that can visually aid the analyst in determining the extent and source of risk uncertainty in HA accident sequences. The results also can be expressed as single statistics of the distribution in a manner analogous to expressing a probabilistic distribution as a point-value statistic such as a mean or median. The study discussed here used data collected during the elicitation portion of an HA on a high-level waste transfer process to demonstrate the techniques for capturing uncertainty. These data came from observations of the uncertainty that HA team members expressed in assigning frequencies and consequences to accident sequences during an actual HA. This uncertainty was captured and manipulated using ideas from possibility theory. The result of this study is a practical method for displaying and assessing the uncertainty in the HA team estimates of the frequency and consequences for accident sequences. This uncertainty provides potentially valuable information about accident sequences that typically is lost in the HA process

Measuring online interpretations and attributions of social situations: Links with adolescent social anxiety.

Science.gov (United States)

Haller, Simone P W; Raeder, Sophie M; Scerif, Gaia; Cohen Kadosh, Kathrin; Lau, Jennifer Y F

2016-03-01

We evaluated the utility of a novel, picture-based tool to measure how adolescents interpret and attribute cause to social exchanges and whether biases in these processes relate to social anxiety. Briefly presented ambiguous visual social scenes, each containing a photograph of the adolescent as the protagonist, were followed by three possible interpretations (positive, negative, neutral/unrelated) and two possible causal attributions (internal, external) to which participants responded. Ninety-five adolescents aged 14 to 17 recruited from mainstream schools, with varying levels of social anxiety rated the likelihood of positive, negative and unrelated interpretations before selecting the single interpretation they deemed as most likely. This was followed by a question prompting them to decide between an internal or external causal attribution for the interpreted event. Across scenarios, adolescents with higher levels of social anxiety rated negative interpretations as more likely and positive interpretations as less likely compared to lower socially anxious adolescents. Higher socially anxious adolescents were also more likely to select internal attributions to negative and less likely to select internal attributions for positive events than adolescents with lower levels of social anxiety. Adolescents with higher social anxiety display cognitive biases in interpretation and attribution. This tool is suitable for measuring cognitive biases of complex visual-social cues in youth populations with social anxiety and simulates the demands of daily social experiences more closely. As we did not measure depressive symptoms, we cannot be sure that biases linked to social anxiety are not due to concurrent low mood. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Influence of measurement uncertainty on classification of thermal environment in buildings according to European Standard EN 15251

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kolarik, Jakub; Olesen, Bjarne W.

2015-01-01

European Standard EN 15 251 in its current version does not provide any guidance on how to handle uncertainty of long term measurements of indoor environmental parameters used for classification of buildings. The objective of the study was to analyse the uncertainty for field measurements...... measurements of operative temperature at two measuring points (south/south-west and north/northeast orientation). Results of the present study suggest that measurement uncertainty needs to be considered during assessment of thermal environment in existing buildings. When expanded standard uncertainty was taken...... into account in categorization of thermal environment according to EN 15251, the difference in prevalence of exceeded category limits were up to 17.3%, 8.3% and 2% of occupied hours for category I, II and III respectively....

Calculation of the detection limit in radiation measurements with systematic uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirkpatrick, J.M.; Russ, W.; Venkataraman, R.; Young, B.M.

2015-01-01

The detection limit (L D ) or Minimum Detectable Activity (MDA) is an a priori evaluation of assay sensitivity intended to quantify the suitability of an instrument or measurement arrangement for the needs of a given application. Traditional approaches as pioneered by Currie rely on Gaussian approximations to yield simple, closed-form solutions, and neglect the effects of systematic uncertainties in the instrument calibration. These approximations are applicable over a wide range of applications, but are of limited use in low-count applications, when high confidence values are required, or when systematic uncertainties are significant. One proposed modification to the Currie formulation attempts account for systematic uncertainties within a Gaussian framework. We have previously shown that this approach results in an approximation formula that works best only for small values of the relative systematic uncertainty, for which the modification of Currie's method is the least necessary, and that it significantly overestimates the detection limit or gives infinite or otherwise non-physical results for larger systematic uncertainties where such a correction would be the most useful. We have developed an alternative approach for calculating detection limits based on realistic statistical modeling of the counting distributions which accurately represents statistical and systematic uncertainties. Instead of a closed form solution, numerical and iterative methods are used to evaluate the result. Accurate detection limits can be obtained by this method for the general case

Establishment of a procedure to calculate the measurement uncertainties in radiation survey meters calibration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Manzoli, J.E.; Potiens, M.P.A.

2000-01-01

The Calibration Laboratory of Sao Paulo calibrates more than one thousand gamma ray survey meters a year; beside other kinds of radiotherapy, radiodiagnostic and radiation protection instruments. It has a standard (600 cm 3 ) cylinder ionization chamber (Nuclear Enterprises Ltd. model 2511/3) traceable to the Brazilian Secondary Standard Dosimetry Laboratory (SSDL) whose instruments are traceable to the BIPM. Annually the beam dosimetry is performed using this chamber and the results are used as the true values for calibration purposes. The uncertainties present in every direct or indirect measurement during the calibration procedure must be evaluated for purposes of laboratory quality control. All calculation steps in the propagation of errors are presented in this work staging from the ionization chamber charge measured with the standard instrument. Such a propagation was made in space and time, considering even the environmental quantities uncertainties. The propagation was necessary in space, because the ionization chamber measurements were performed at only one space position. The time propagation was essential due to the fact that the activity is a peculiar physical quantity which changes with time according to precise relations for a specific radionuclide. The clear indication of every measurement uncertainty is always important to quantify the quality of this measurement. Nowadays the achievement of calibration laboratory quality systems requires the expression of all uncertainties and the procedure used to evaluate it. An example of this procedure in the case of the calibration of a typical portable radiation survey meter is presented. The direct exposure rate instrument measurement was compared with the true value given by the standard instrument properly propagated and all quantities used have their uncertainties shown. (author)

Uncertainty assessing of measure result of tungsten in U3O8 by ICP-AES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Du Guirong; Nie Jie; Tang Lilei

2011-01-01

According as the determining method and the assessing criterion,the uncertainty assessing of measure result of tungsten in U 3 O 8 by ICP-AES is researched. With the assessment of each component in detail, the result shows that u rel (sc)> u rel (c)> u rel (F)> u rel (m) by uncertainty contribution. Other uncertainty is random, calculated by repetition. u rel (sc) is contributed to uncertainty mainly. So the general uncertainty is reduced with strict operation to reduce u rel (sc). (authors)

Visual Semiotics & Uncertainty Visualization: An Empirical Study.

Science.gov (United States)

MacEachren, A M; Roth, R E; O'Brien, J; Li, B; Swingley, D; Gahegan, M

2012-12-01

This paper presents two linked empirical studies focused on uncertainty visualization. The experiments are framed from two conceptual perspectives. First, a typology of uncertainty is used to delineate kinds of uncertainty matched with space, time, and attribute components of data. Second, concepts from visual semiotics are applied to characterize the kind of visual signification that is appropriate for representing those different categories of uncertainty. This framework guided the two experiments reported here. The first addresses representation intuitiveness, considering both visual variables and iconicity of representation. The second addresses relative performance of the most intuitive abstract and iconic representations of uncertainty on a map reading task. Combined results suggest initial guidelines for representing uncertainty and discussion focuses on practical applicability of results.

Measurement uncertainties for vacuum standards at Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hong, S. S.; Shin, Y. H.; Chung, K. H.

2006-01-01

The Korea Research Institute of Standards and Science has three major vacuum systems: an ultrasonic interferometer manometer (UIM) (Sec. II, Figs. 1 and 2) for low vacuum, a static expansion system (SES) (Sec. III, Figs. 3 and 4) for medium vacuum, and an orifice-type dynamic expansion system (DES) (Sec. IV, Figs. 5 and 6) for high and ultrahigh vacuum. For each system explicit measurement model equations with multiple variables are, respectively, given. According to ISO standards, all these system variable errors were used to calculate the expanded uncertainty (U). For each system the expanded uncertainties (k=1, confidence level=95%) and relative expanded uncertainty (expanded uncertainty/generated pressure) are summarized in Table IV and are estimated to be as follows. For UIM, at 2.5-300 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -2 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -2 ; at 1-100 kPa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -5 . For SES, at 3-100 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -1 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -3 . For DES, at 4.6x10 -3 -1.3x10 -2 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -4 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -3 ; at 3.0x10 -6 -9.0x10 -4 Pa generated pressure, the expanded uncertainty is -6 Pa and the relative expanded uncertainty is -2 . Within uncertainty limits our bilateral and key comparisons [CCM.P-K4 (10 Pa-1 kPa)] are extensive and in good agreement with those of other nations (Fig. 8 and Table V)

Uncertainty measurement in the homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification of rice and beans

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dieisson Pivoto

2016-04-01

Full Text Available ABSTRACT: The study aimed to i quantify the measurement uncertainty in the physical tests of rice and beans for a hypothetical defect, ii verify whether homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification tests of rice and beans is effective to reduce the measurement uncertainty of the process and iii determine whether the increase in size of beans sample increases accuracy and reduces measurement uncertainty in a significant way. Hypothetical defects in rice and beans with different damage levels were simulated according to the testing methodology determined by the Normative Ruling of each product. The homogenization and sample reduction in the physical classification of rice and beans are not effective, transferring to the final test result a high measurement uncertainty. The sample size indicated by the Normative Ruling did not allow an appropriate homogenization and should be increased.

Comparison of the GUM and Monte Carlo methods on the flatness uncertainty estimation in coordinate measuring machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jalid Abdelilah

2016-01-01

Full Text Available In engineering industry, control of manufactured parts is usually done on a coordinate measuring machine (CMM, a sensor mounted at the end of the machine probes a set of points on the surface to be inspected. Data processing is performed subsequently using software, and the result of this measurement process either validates or not the conformity of the part. Measurement uncertainty is a crucial parameter for making the right decisions, and not taking into account this parameter can, therefore, sometimes lead to aberrant decisions. The determination of the uncertainty measurement on CMM is a complex task for the variety of influencing factors. Through this study, we aim to check if the uncertainty propagation model developed according to the guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM approach is valid, we present here a comparison of the GUM and Monte Carlo methods. This comparison is made to estimate a flatness deviation of a surface belonging to an industrial part and the uncertainty associated to the measurement result.

Uncertainties in the measured quantities of water leaving waste Tank 241-C-106 via the ventilation system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Minteer, D.J.

1995-01-23

The purpose of this analysis is to estimate the uncertainty in the measured quantity of water which typically leaves Tank 241-C-106 via the ventilation system each month. Such measurements are essential for heat removal estimation and tank liquid level verification purposes. The uncertainty associated with the current, infrequent, manual method of measurement (involves various psychrometric and pressure measurements) is suspected to be unreasonably high. Thus, the possible reduction of this uncertainty using a continuous, automated method of measurement will also be estimated. There are three major conclusions as a result of this analysis: (1) the uncertainties associated with the current (infrequent, manual) method of measuring the water which typically leaves Tank 241-C-106 per month via the ventilation system are indeed quite high (80% to 120%); (2) given the current psychrometric and pressure measurement methods and any tank which loses considerable moisture through active ventilation, such as Tank 241-C-106, significant quantities of liquid can actually leak from the tank before a leak can be positively identified via liquid level measurement; (3) using improved (continuous, automated) methods of taking the psychrometric and pressure measurements, the uncertainty in the measured quantity of water leaving Tank 241-C-106 via the ventilation system can be reduced by approximately an order of magnitude.

Uncertainties in the measured quantities of water leaving waste Tank 241-C-106 via the ventilation system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minteer, D.J.

1995-01-01

The purpose of this analysis is to estimate the uncertainty in the measured quantity of water which typically leaves Tank 241-C-106 via the ventilation system each month. Such measurements are essential for heat removal estimation and tank liquid level verification purposes. The uncertainty associated with the current, infrequent, manual method of measurement (involves various psychrometric and pressure measurements) is suspected to be unreasonably high. Thus, the possible reduction of this uncertainty using a continuous, automated method of measurement will also be estimated. There are three major conclusions as a result of this analysis: (1) the uncertainties associated with the current (infrequent, manual) method of measuring the water which typically leaves Tank 241-C-106 per month via the ventilation system are indeed quite high (80% to 120%); (2) given the current psychrometric and pressure measurement methods and any tank which loses considerable moisture through active ventilation, such as Tank 241-C-106, significant quantities of liquid can actually leak from the tank before a leak can be positively identified via liquid level measurement; (3) using improved (continuous, automated) methods of taking the psychrometric and pressure measurements, the uncertainty in the measured quantity of water leaving Tank 241-C-106 via the ventilation system can be reduced by approximately an order of magnitude

Variance gradients and uncertainty budgets for nonlinear measurement functions with independent inputs

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campanelli, Mark; Kacker, Raghu; Kessel, Rüdiger

2013-01-01

A novel variance-based measure for global sensitivity analysis, termed a variance gradient (VG), is presented for constructing uncertainty budgets under the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) framework for nonlinear measurement functions with independent inputs. The motivation behind VGs is the desire of metrologists to understand which inputs' variance reductions would most effectively reduce the variance of the measurand. VGs are particularly useful when the application of the first supplement to the GUM is indicated because of the inadequacy of measurement function linearization. However, VGs reduce to a commonly understood variance decomposition in the case of a linear(ized) measurement function with independent inputs for which the original GUM readily applies. The usefulness of VGs is illustrated by application to an example from the first supplement to the GUM, as well as to the benchmark Ishigami function. A comparison of VGs to other available sensitivity measures is made. (paper)

MM98.52 - An industrial comparison of coordinate measuring machines in Scandinavia with focus on uncertainty statements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Hans Nørgaard; Chiffre, Leonardo De

1999-01-01

This paper describes an industrial comparison of coordinate measuring machines (CMMs) carried out in the Scandinavian countries from October 1994 to May 1996. Fifty-nine industrial companies with a total of 62 CMMs participated in the project and measured a comparison package with five items chosen....... An important part of the intercomparison was to test the ability of the participants to determine measurement uncertainties. One of the uncertainties was based upon a "best guess" but nevertheless, many participants did not even report this uncertainty. Uncertainty budgeting was not used for measurements other...... than simple length. For each company, a comparison of their measurement ability with the reference laboratory and other Scandinavian companies was made possible. A network regarding CMMs was created in these Scandinavian countries. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved....

Determination of uncertainty of automated emission measuring systems under field conditions using a second method as a reference

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Puustinen, H.; Aunela-Tapola, L.; Tolvanen, M.; Vahlman, T. [VTT Chemical Technology, Espoo (Finland). Environmental Technology; Kovanen, K. [VTT Building Technology, Espoo (Finland). Building Physics, Building Services and Fire Technology

1999-09-01

This report presents a procedure to determine the uncertainty of an automated emission measuring system (AMS) by comparing the results with a second method (REF). The procedure determines the uncertainty of AMS by comparing the final concentration and emission results of AMS and REF. In this way, the data processing of the plant is included in the result evaluation. This procedure assumes that the uncertainty of REF is known and determined in due form. The uncertainty determination has been divided into two cases; varying and nearly constant concentration. The suggested procedure calculates the uncertainty of AMS at the 95 % confidence level by a tabulated t-value. A minimum of three data pairs is required. However, a higher amount of data pairs is desirable, since a low amount of data pairs results in a higher uncertainty of AMS. The uncertainty of AMS is valid only within the range of concentrations at which the tests were carried out. Statistical data processing shows that the uncertainty of the reference method has a significant effect on the uncertainty of AMS, which always becomes larger than the uncertainty of REF. This should be taken into account when testing whether AMS fulfils the given uncertainty limits. Practical details, concerning parallel measurements at the plant, and the costs of the measurement campaign, have been taken into account when suggesting alternative ways for implementing the comparative measurements. (orig.) 6 refs.

Maximum respiratory pressure measuring system : calibration and evaluation of uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ferreira, J.L.; Pereira, N.C.; Oliveira Júnior, M.; Vasconcelos, F.H.; Parreira, V.F.; Tierra-Criollo, C.J.

2010-01-01

The objective of this paper is to present a methodology for the evaluation of uncertainties in the measurements results obtained during the calibration of a digital manovacuometer prototype (DM) with a load cell sensor pressure device incorporated. Calibration curves were obtained for both pressure

A technique for improved stability of adaptive feedforward controllers without detailed uncertainty measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berkhoff, A P

2012-01-01

Model errors in adaptive controllers for the reduction of broadband noise and vibrations may lead to unstable systems or increased error signals. Previous research on active structures with small damping has shown that the addition of a low-authority controller which increases damping in the system may lead to improved performance of an adaptive, high-authority controller. Other researchers have suggested the use of frequency dependent regularization based on measured uncertainties. In this paper an alternative method is presented that avoids the disadvantages of these methods, namely the additional complex hardware and the need to obtain detailed information on the uncertainties. An analysis is made of an adaptive feedforward controller in which a difference exists between the secondary path and the model as used in the controller. The real parts of the eigenvalues that determine the stability of the system are expressed in terms of the amount of uncertainty and the singular values of the secondary path. Modifications of the feedforward control scheme are suggested that aim to improve performance without requiring detailed uncertainty measurements. (paper)

Framework for the assessment of PEMS (Portable Emissions Measurement Systems) uncertainty.

Science.gov (United States)

Giechaskiel, Barouch; Clairotte, Michael; Valverde-Morales, Victor; Bonnel, Pierre; Kregar, Zlatko; Franco, Vicente; Dilara, Panagiota

2018-06-13

European regulation 2016/427 (the first package of the so-called Real-Driving Emissions (RDE) regulation) introduced on-road testing with Portable Emissions Measurement Systems (PEMS) to complement the chassis dynamometer laboratory (Type I) test for the type approval of light-duty vehicles in the European Union since September 2017. The Not-To-Exceed (NTE) limit for a pollutant is the Type I test limit multiplied by a conformity factor that includes a margin for the additional measurement uncertainty of PEMS relative to standard laboratory equipment. The variability of measured results related to RDE trip design, vehicle operating conditions, and data evaluation remain outside of the uncertainty margin. The margins have to be reviewed annually (recital 10 of regulation 2016/646). This paper lays out the framework used for the first review of the NO x margin, which is also applicable to future margin reviews. Based on experimental data received from the stakeholders of the RDE technical working group in 2017, two NO x margin scenarios of 0.24-0.43 were calculated, accounting for different assumptions of possible zero drift behaviour of the PEMS during the tests. The reduced uncertainty margin compared to the one foreseen for 2020 (0.5) reflects the technical improvement of PEMS over the past few years. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Verification of the Indicating Measuring Instruments Taking into Account their Instrumental Measurement Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zakharov Igor

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The specific features of the measuring instruments verification based on the results of their calibration are considered. It is noted that, in contrast to the verification procedure used in the legal metrology, the verification procedure for calibrated measuring instruments has to take into account the uncertainty of measurements into account. In this regard, a large number of measuring instruments, considered as those that are in compliance after verification in the legal metrology, turns out to be not in compliance after calibration. In this case, it is necessary to evaluate the probability of compliance of indicating measuring instruments. The procedure of compliance probability determination on the basis of the Monte Carlo method is considered. An example of calibration of a Vernier caliper is given.

SWEPP PAN assay system uncertainty analysis: Active mode measurements of solidified aqueous sludge waste

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Blackwood, L.G.; Harker, Y.D.; Meachum, T.R.

1997-12-01

The Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory is being used as a temporary storage facility for transuranic waste generated by the US Nuclear Weapons program at the Rocky Flats Plant (RFP) in Golden, Colorado. Currently, there is a large effort in progress to prepare to ship this waste to the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) in Carlsbad, New Mexico. In order to meet the TRU Waste Characterization Quality Assurance Program Plan nondestructive assay compliance requirements and quality assurance objectives, it is necessary to determine the total uncertainty of the radioassay results produced by the Stored Waste Examination Pilot Plant (SWEPP) Passive Active Neutron (PAN) radioassay system. This paper is one of a series of reports quantifying the results of the uncertainty analysis of the PAN system measurements for specific waste types and measurement modes. In particular this report covers active mode measurements of weapons grade plutonium-contaminated aqueous sludge waste contained in 208 liter drums (item description codes 1, 2, 7, 800, 803, and 807). Results of the uncertainty analysis for PAN active mode measurements of aqueous sludge indicate that a bias correction multiplier of 1.55 should be applied to the PAN aqueous sludge measurements. With the bias correction, the uncertainty bounds on the expected bias are 0 ± 27%. These bounds meet the Quality Assurance Program Plan requirements for radioassay systems

Illness uncertainty and treatment motivation in type 2 diabetes patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Apóstolo, João Luís Alves; Viveiros, Catarina Sofia Castro; Nunes, Helena Isabel Ribeiro; Domingues, Helena Raquel Faustino

2007-01-01

To characterize the uncertainty in illness and the motivation for treatment and to evaluate the existing relation between these variables in individuals with type 2 diabetes. Descriptive, correlational study, using a sample of 62 individuals in diabetes consultation sessions. The Uncertainty Stress Scale and the Treatment Self-Regulation Questionnaire were used. The individuals with type 2 diabetes present low levels of uncertainty in illness and a high motivation for treatment, with a stronger intrinsic than extrinsic motivation. A negative correlation was verified between the uncertainty in the face of the prognosis and treatment and the intrinsic motivation. These individuals are already adapted, acting according to the meanings they attribute to illness. Uncertainty can function as a threat, intervening negatively in the attribution of meaning to the events related to illness and in the process of adaptation and motivation to adhere to treatment. Intrinsic motivation seems to be essential to adhere to treatment.

Moving Beyond 2% Uncertainty: A New Framework for Quantifying Lidar Uncertainty

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Newman, Jennifer F.; Clifton, Andrew

2017-03-08

Remote sensing of wind using lidar is revolutionizing wind energy. However, current generations of wind lidar are ascribed a climatic value of uncertainty, which is based on a poor description of lidar sensitivity to external conditions. In this presentation, we show how it is important to consider the complete lidar measurement process to define the measurement uncertainty, which in turn offers the ability to define a much more granular and dynamic measurement uncertainty. This approach is a progression from the 'white box' lidar uncertainty method.

Accounting for sensor calibration, data validation, measurement and sampling uncertainties in monitoring urban drainage systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Bertrand-Krajewski, J L; Bardin, J P; Mourad, M; Béranger, Y

2003-01-01

Assessing the functioning and the performance of urban drainage systems on both rainfall event and yearly time scales is usually based on online measurements of flow rates and on samples of influent effluent for some rainfall events per year. In order to draw pertinent scientific and operational conclusions from the measurement results, it is absolutely necessary to use appropriate methods and techniques in order to i) calibrate sensors and analytical methods, ii) validate raw data, iii) evaluate measurement uncertainties, iv) evaluate the number of rainfall events to sample per year in order to determine performance indicator with a given uncertainty. Based an previous work, the paper gives a synthetic review of required and techniques, and illustrates their application to storage and settling tanks. Experiments show that, controlled and careful experimental conditions, relative uncertainties are about 20% for flow rates in sewer pipes, 6-10% for volumes, 25-35% for TSS concentrations and loads, and 18-276% for TSS removal rates. In order to evaluate the annual pollutant interception efficiency of storage and settling tanks with a given uncertainty, efforts should first be devoted to decrease the sampling uncertainty by increasing the number of sampled events.

Traceability and measurement uncertainty in sample preparation (W5)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wegscheider, W.; Walner, U.; Moser, J.

2002-01-01

Full text: Very few chemical measurements are being made directly on the object of interest and sample preparation is thus the rule rather than the exception in daily practice. Unfortunately the operations undertaken in the course of sample preparation are prone to rendering a sample useless for the purpose of interpreting a measurement performed on it, as it might not represent the original and relevant status any longer. Sample preparation along with sampling itself constitutes therefore a procedure that leads to a loss of representation of the original specimen or population. On the other hand it is also not sufficient to confine aspects of traceability and measurement uncertainty to the ultimate measurement, as the key purpose of measuring is to supply adequate data for some kind of decision, be it in production, in health, in the environment, or indeed in any other circumstance. These considerations have led to severe confusion in the community as to what traceability really means in chemistry. CITAC and EURACHEM have only recently issued a preliminary document that clarifies these issues and gives a firm handle on the future development of quality assurance in analytical chemistry. In this talk it will be attempted to outline the general ideas and procedures that lead to traceability of analytical chemical results accompanied by valid statements of their uncertainty. It will be argued that the central element in achieving these goals is a well-designed validation study that frequently goes beyond those requirements currently laid out in official documents. (author)

Instrument uncertainty predictions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Coutts, D.A.

1991-07-01

The accuracy of measurements and correlations should normally be provided for most experimental activities. The uncertainty is a measure of the accuracy of a stated value or equation. The uncertainty term reflects a combination of instrument errors, modeling limitations, and phenomena understanding deficiencies. This report provides several methodologies to estimate an instrument's uncertainty when used in experimental work. Methods are shown to predict both the pretest and post-test uncertainty

Estimating the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in South Africa in 2000.

Science.gov (United States)

Joubert, Jané; Norman, Rosana; Lambert, Estelle V; Groenewald, Pam; Schneider, Michelle; Bull, Fiona; Bradshaw, Debbie

2007-08-01

To quantify the burden of disease attributable to physical inactivity in persons 15 years or older, by age group and sex, in South Africa for 2000. The global comparative risk assessment (CRA) methodology of the World Health Organization was followed to estimate the disease burden attributable to physical inactivity. Levels of physical activity for South Africa were obtained from the World Health Survey 2003. A theoretical minimum risk exposure of zero, associated outcomes, relative risks, and revised burden of disease estimates were used to calculate population-attributable fractions and the burden attributed to physical inactivity. Monte Carlo simulation-modelling techniques were used for the uncertainty analysis. South Africa. Adults >or= 15 years. Deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) from ischaemic heart disease, ischaemic stroke, breast cancer, colon cancer, and type 2 diabetes mellitus. Overall in adults >or= 15 years in 2000, 30% of ischaemic heart disease, 27% of colon cancer, 22% of ischaemic stroke, 20% of type 2 diabetes, and 17% of breast cancer were attributable to physical inactivity. Physical inactivity was estimated to have caused 17,037 (95% uncertainty interval 11,394 - 20,407), or 3.3% (95% uncertainty interval 2.2 - 3.9%) of all deaths in 2000, and 176,252 (95% uncertainty interval 133,733 - 203,628) DALYs, or 1.1% (95% uncertainty interval 0.8 - 1.3%) of all DALYs in 2000. Compared with other regions and the global average, South African adults have a particularly high prevalence of physical inactivity. In terms of attributable deaths, physical inactivity ranked 9th compared with other risk factors, and 12th in terms of DALYs. There is a clear need to assess why South Africans are particularly inactive, and to ensure that physical activity/inactivity is addressed as a national health priority.

Uncertainty Quantification of Fork Detector Measurements from Spent Fuel Loading Campaigns

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vaccaro, S.; De Baere, P.; Schwalbach, P.; Gauld, I.; Hu, J.

2015-01-01

With increasing activities at the end of the fuel cycle, the requirements for the verification of spent nuclear fuel for safeguards purposes are continuously growing. In the European Union we are experiencing a dramatic increase in the number of cask loadings for interim dry storage. This is caused by the progressive shut-down of reactors, related to facility ageing but also due to politically motivated phase-out of nuclear power. On the other hand there are advanced plans for the construction of encapsulation plants and geological repositories. The cask loading or the encapsulation process will provide the last occasion to verify the spent fuel assemblies. In this context, Euratom and the US DOE have carried out a critical review of the widely used Fork measurements method of irradiated assemblies. The Nuclear Safeguards directorates of the European Commission's Directorate General for Energy and Oak Ridge National Laboratory have collaborated to improve the Fork data evaluation process and simplify its use for inspection applications. Within the Commission's standard data evaluation package CRISP, we included a SCALE/ORIGEN-based irradiation and depletion simulation of the measured assembly and modelled the fork transfer function to calculate expected count rates based on operator's declarations. The complete acquisition and evaluation process has been automated to compare expected (calculated) with measured count rates. This approach allows a physics-based improvement of the data review and evaluation process. At the same time the new method provides the means for better measurement uncertainty quantification. The present paper will address the implications of the combined approach involving measured and simulated data to the quantification of measurement uncertainty and the consequences of these uncertainties in the possible use of the Fork detector as a partial defect detection method. (author)

High-voltage measurements on the 5 ppm relative uncertainty level with collinear laser spectroscopy

Science.gov (United States)

Krämer, J.; König, K.; Geppert, Ch; Imgram, P.; Maaß, B.; Meisner, J.; Otten, E. W.; Passon, S.; Ratajczyk, T.; Ullmann, J.; Nörtershäuser, W.

2018-04-01

We present the results of high-voltage collinear laser spectroscopy measurements on the 5 ppm relative uncertainty level using a pump and probe scheme at the 4s ^2S1/2 → 4p ^2P3/2 transition of {\\hspace{0pt}}40Ca+ involving the 3d ^2D5/2 metastable state. With two-stage laser interaction and a reference measurement we can eliminate systematic effects such as differences in the contact potentials due to different electrode materials and thermoelectric voltages, and the unknown starting potential of the ions in the ion source. Voltage measurements were performed between  -5 kV and  -19 kV and parallel measurements with stable high-voltage dividers calibrated to 5 ppm relative uncertainty were used as a reference. Our measurements are compatible with the uncertainty limits of the high-voltage dividers and demonstrate an unprecedented (factor of 20) increase in the precision of direct laser-based high-voltage measurements.

ESTIMATION OF MEASUREMENT UNCERTAINTY IN THE DETERMINATION OF Fe CONTENT IN POWDERED TONIC FOOD DRINK USING GRAPHITE FURNACE ATOMIC ABSORPTION SPECTROMETRY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Harry Budiman

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The evaluation of uncertainty measurement in the determination of Fe content in powdered tonic food drink using graphite furnace atomic absorption spectrometry was carried out. The specification of measurand, source of uncertainty, standard uncertainty, combined uncertainty and expanded uncertainty from this measurement were evaluated and accounted. The measurement result showed that the Fe content in powdered tonic food drink sample was 569.32 µg/5g, with the expanded uncertainty measurement ± 178.20 µg/5g (coverage factor, k = 2, at confidende level 95%. The calibration curve gave the major contribution to the uncertainty of the final results.   Keywords: uncertainty, powdered tonic food drink, iron (Fe, graphite furnace AAS

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sandra Hoffmann

Full Text Available Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions.We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates.We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world

Attribution of global foodborne disease to specific foods: Findings from a World Health Organization structured expert elicitation.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffmann, Sandra; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Aspinall, Willy; Cooke, Roger; Corrigan, Tim; Havelaar, Arie; Angulo, Frederick; Gibb, Herman; Kirk, Martyn; Lake, Robin; Speybroeck, Niko; Torgerson, Paul; Hald, Tine

2017-01-01

Recently the World Health Organization, Foodborne Disease Burden Epidemiology Reference Group (FERG) estimated that 31 foodborne diseases (FBDs) resulted in over 600 million illnesses and 420,000 deaths worldwide in 2010. Knowing the relative role importance of different foods as exposure routes for key hazards is critical to preventing illness. This study reports the findings of a structured expert elicitation providing globally comparable food source attribution estimates for 11 major FBDs in each of 14 world subregions. We used Cooke's Classical Model to elicit and aggregate judgments of 73 international experts. Judgments were elicited from each expert individually and aggregated using both equal and performance weights. Performance weighted results are reported as they increased the informativeness of estimates, while retaining accuracy. We report measures of central tendency and uncertainty bounds on food source attribution estimate. For some pathogens we see relatively consistent food source attribution estimates across subregions of the world; for others there is substantial regional variation. For example, for non-typhoidal salmonellosis, pork was of minor importance compared to eggs and poultry meat in the American and African subregions, whereas in the European and Western Pacific subregions the importance of these three food sources were quite similar. Our regional results broadly agree with estimates from earlier European and North American food source attribution research. As in prior food source attribution research, we find relatively wide uncertainty bounds around our median estimates. We present the first worldwide estimates of the proportion of specific foodborne diseases attributable to specific food exposure routes. While we find substantial uncertainty around central tendency estimates, we believe these estimates provide the best currently available basis on which to link FBDs and specific foods in many parts of the world, providing guidance

Practical aspects of the uncertainty and traceability of spectrochemical measurement results by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duta, S.; Robouch, P.; Barbu, L.; Taylor, P.

2007-01-01

The determination of trace elements concentration in water by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS) is a common and well established technique in many chemical testing laboratories. However, the evaluation of measurement uncertainty results is not systematically implemented. The paper presents an easy step-by-step example leading to the evaluation of the combined standard uncertainty of copper determination in water using ETAAS. The major contributors to the overall measurement uncertainty are identified due to amount of copper in water sample that mainly depends on the absorbance measurements, due to certified reference material and due to auto-sampler volume measurements. The practical aspects how the traceability of copper concentration in water can be established and demonstrated are also pointed out

Practical aspects of the uncertainty and traceability of spectrochemical measurement results by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Duta, S. [Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Retieseweg 111, B-2440 Geel (Belgium); National Institute of Metrology, 042122 Vitan Barzesti 11, sector 4 Bucharest (Romania)], E-mail: steluta.duta@inm.ro; Robouch, P. [Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Retieseweg 111, B-2440 Geel (Belgium)], E-mail: Piotr.Robouch@ec.europa.eu; Barbu, L. [Coca-Cola Entreprise, Analytical Department, Bucharest (Romania); Taylor, P. [Institute for Reference Materials and Measurements, Joint Research Centre, European Commission, Retieseweg 111, B-2440 Geel (Belgium)], E-mail: Philip.Taylor@ec.europa.eu

2007-04-15

The determination of trace elements concentration in water by electrothermal atomic absorption spectrometry (ETAAS) is a common and well established technique in many chemical testing laboratories. However, the evaluation of measurement uncertainty results is not systematically implemented. The paper presents an easy step-by-step example leading to the evaluation of the combined standard uncertainty of copper determination in water using ETAAS. The major contributors to the overall measurement uncertainty are identified due to amount of copper in water sample that mainly depends on the absorbance measurements, due to certified reference material and due to auto-sampler volume measurements. The practical aspects how the traceability of copper concentration in water can be established and demonstrated are also pointed out.

LOWERING UNCERTAINTY IN CRUDE OIL MEASUREMENT BY SELECTING OPTIMIZED ENVELOPE COLOR OF A PIPELINE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Morteza Saadat

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Lowering uncertainty in crude oil volume measurement has been widely considered as one of main purposes in an oil export terminal. It is found that crude oil temperature at metering station has big effects on measured volume and may cause big uncertainty at the metering point. As crude oil flows through an aboveground pipeline, pick up the solar radiation and heat up. This causes the oil temperature at the metering point to rise and higher uncertainty to be created. The amount of temperature rise is depended on exterior surface paint color. In the Kharg Island, there is about 3 km distance between the oil storage tanks and the metering point. The oil flows through the pipeline due to gravity effects as storage tanks are located 60m higher than the metering point. In this study, an analytical model has been conducted for predicting oil temperature at the pipeline exit (the metering point based on climate and geographical conditions of the Kharg Island. The temperature at the metering point has been calculated and the effects of envelope color have been investigated. Further, the uncertainty in the measurement system due to temperature rise has been studied.

Measuring diversity in medical reports based on categorized attributes and international classification systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Přečková Petra

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Narrative medical reports do not use standardized terminology and often bring insufficient information for statistical processing and medical decision making. Objectives of the paper are to propose a method for measuring diversity in medical reports written in any language, to compare diversities in narrative and structured medical reports and to map attributes and terms to selected classification systems. Methods A new method based on a general concept of f-diversity is proposed for measuring diversity of medical reports in any language. The method is based on categorized attributes recorded in narrative or structured medical reports and on international classification systems. Values of categories are expressed by terms. Using SNOMED CT and ICD 10 we are mapping attributes and terms to predefined codes. We use f-diversities of Gini-Simpson and Number of Categories types to compare diversities of narrative and structured medical reports. The comparison is based on attributes selected from the Minimal Data Model for Cardiology (MDMC. Results We compared diversities of 110 Czech narrative medical reports and 1119 Czech structured medical reports. Selected categorized attributes of MDMC had mostly different numbers of categories and used different terms in narrative and structured reports. We found more than 60% of MDMC attributes in SNOMED CT. We showed that attributes in narrative medical reports had greater diversity than the same attributes in structured medical reports. Further, we replaced each value of category (term used for attributes in narrative medical reports by the closest term and the category used in MDMC for structured medical reports. We found that relative Gini-Simpson diversities in structured medical reports were significantly smaller than those in narrative medical reports except the "Allergy" attribute. Conclusions Terminology in narrative medical reports is not standardized. Therefore it is nearly

Uncertainty in CH4 and N2O emission estimates from a managed fen meadow using EC measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kroon, P.S.; Hensen, A.; Van 't Veen, W.H.; Vermeulen, A.T.; Jonker, H.

2009-02-01

The overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements may be as high as 50% due to the temporal and spatial variability in the fluxes. As even a large number of chamber plots still cover typically less than 1% of the total field area, the field-scale integrated emission necessarily remains a matter of speculation. High frequency micrometeorological methods are a good option for obtaining integrated estimates on a hectare scale with a continuous coverage in time. Instrumentation is now becoming available that meets the requirements for CH4 and N2O eddy covariance (EC) measurements. A system consisting of a quantum cascade laser (QCL) spectrometer and a sonic anemometer has recently been proven to be suitable for performing EC measurements. This study analyses the EC flux measurements of CH4 and N2O and its corrections, like calibration, Webb-correction, and corrections for high and low frequency losses, and assesses the magnitude of the uncertainties associated with the precision of the measurement instruments, measurement set-up and the methodology. The uncertainty of one single EC flux measurement, a daily, monthly and 3-monthly average EC flux is estimated. In addition, the cumulative emission of C-CH4 and N-N2O and their uncertainties are determined over several fertilizing events at a dairy farm site in the Netherlands. These fertilizing events are selected from the continuously EC flux measurements from August 2006 to September 2008. The EC flux uncertainties are compared by the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements. It will be shown that EC flux measurements can decrease the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates

Uncertainty in CH4 and N2O emission estimates from a managed fen meadow using EC measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kroon, P.S.; Hensen, A.; Van ' t Veen, W.H.; Vermeulen, A.T. [ECN Biomass, Coal and Environment, Petten (Netherlands); Jonker, H. [Delft University of Technology, Delft (Netherlands)

2009-02-15

The overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements may be as high as 50% due to the temporal and spatial variability in the fluxes. As even a large number of chamber plots still cover typically less than 1% of the total field area, the field-scale integrated emission necessarily remains a matter of speculation. High frequency micrometeorological methods are a good option for obtaining integrated estimates on a hectare scale with a continuous coverage in time. Instrumentation is now becoming available that meets the requirements for CH4 and N2O eddy covariance (EC) measurements. A system consisting of a quantum cascade laser (QCL) spectrometer and a sonic anemometer has recently been proven to be suitable for performing EC measurements. This study analyses the EC flux measurements of CH4 and N2O and its corrections, like calibration, Webb-correction, and corrections for high and low frequency losses, and assesses the magnitude of the uncertainties associated with the precision of the measurement instruments, measurement set-up and the methodology. The uncertainty of one single EC flux measurement, a daily, monthly and 3-monthly average EC flux is estimated. In addition, the cumulative emission of C-CH4 and N-N2O and their uncertainties are determined over several fertilizing events at a dairy farm site in the Netherlands. These fertilizing events are selected from the continuously EC flux measurements from August 2006 to September 2008. The EC flux uncertainties are compared by the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates derived from chamber measurements. It will be shown that EC flux measurements can decrease the overall uncertainty in annual flux estimates.

Development of a Prototype Model-Form Uncertainty Knowledge Base

Science.gov (United States)

Green, Lawrence L.

2016-01-01

Uncertainties are generally classified as either aleatory or epistemic. Aleatory uncertainties are those attributed to random variation, either naturally or through manufacturing processes. Epistemic uncertainties are generally attributed to a lack of knowledge. One type of epistemic uncertainty is called model-form uncertainty. The term model-form means that among the choices to be made during a design process within an analysis, there are different forms of the analysis process, which each give different results for the same configuration at the same flight conditions. Examples of model-form uncertainties include the grid density, grid type, and solver type used within a computational fluid dynamics code, or the choice of the number and type of model elements within a structures analysis. The objectives of this work are to identify and quantify a representative set of model-form uncertainties and to make this information available to designers through an interactive knowledge base (KB). The KB can then be used during probabilistic design sessions, so as to enable the possible reduction of uncertainties in the design process through resource investment. An extensive literature search has been conducted to identify and quantify typical model-form uncertainties present within aerospace design. An initial attempt has been made to assemble the results of this literature search into a searchable KB, usable in real time during probabilistic design sessions. A concept of operations and the basic structure of a model-form uncertainty KB are described. Key operations within the KB are illustrated. Current limitations in the KB, and possible workarounds are explained.

The Uncertainty of Local Background Magnetic Field Orientation in Anisotropic Plasma Turbulence

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gerick, F.; Saur, J.; Papen, M. von, E-mail: felix.gerick@uni-koeln.de [Institute of Geophysics and Meteorology, University of Cologne, Cologne (Germany)

2017-07-01

In order to resolve and characterize anisotropy in turbulent plasma flows, a proper estimation of the background magnetic field is crucially important. Various approaches to calculating the background magnetic field, ranging from local to globally averaged fields, are commonly used in the analysis of turbulent data. We investigate how the uncertainty in the orientation of a scale-dependent background magnetic field influences the ability to resolve anisotropy. Therefore, we introduce a quantitative measure, the angle uncertainty, that characterizes the uncertainty of the orientation of the background magnetic field that turbulent structures are exposed to. The angle uncertainty can be used as a condition to estimate the ability to resolve anisotropy with certain accuracy. We apply our description to resolve the spectral anisotropy in fast solar wind data. We show that, if the angle uncertainty grows too large, the power of the turbulent fluctuations is attributed to false local magnetic field angles, which may lead to an incorrect estimation of the spectral indices. In our results, an apparent robustness of the spectral anisotropy to false local magnetic field angles is observed, which can be explained by a stronger increase of power for lower frequencies when the scale of the local magnetic field is increased. The frequency-dependent angle uncertainty is a measure that can be applied to any turbulent system.

The Uncertainty of Local Background Magnetic Field Orientation in Anisotropic Plasma Turbulence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gerick, F.; Saur, J.; Papen, M. von

2017-01-01

In order to resolve and characterize anisotropy in turbulent plasma flows, a proper estimation of the background magnetic field is crucially important. Various approaches to calculating the background magnetic field, ranging from local to globally averaged fields, are commonly used in the analysis of turbulent data. We investigate how the uncertainty in the orientation of a scale-dependent background magnetic field influences the ability to resolve anisotropy. Therefore, we introduce a quantitative measure, the angle uncertainty, that characterizes the uncertainty of the orientation of the background magnetic field that turbulent structures are exposed to. The angle uncertainty can be used as a condition to estimate the ability to resolve anisotropy with certain accuracy. We apply our description to resolve the spectral anisotropy in fast solar wind data. We show that, if the angle uncertainty grows too large, the power of the turbulent fluctuations is attributed to false local magnetic field angles, which may lead to an incorrect estimation of the spectral indices. In our results, an apparent robustness of the spectral anisotropy to false local magnetic field angles is observed, which can be explained by a stronger increase of power for lower frequencies when the scale of the local magnetic field is increased. The frequency-dependent angle uncertainty is a measure that can be applied to any turbulent system.

Measuring Cross-Section and Estimating Uncertainties with the fissionTPC

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bowden, N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Manning, B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Sangiorgio, S. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Seilhan, B. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2015-01-30

The purpose of this document is to outline the prescription for measuring fission cross-sections with the NIFFTE fissionTPC and estimating the associated uncertainties. As such it will serve as a work planning guide for NIFFTE collaboration members and facilitate clear communication of the procedures used to the broader community.

Quantifying statistical uncertainty in the attribution of human influence on severe weather

OpenAIRE

Paciorek, CJ; Stone, DA; Wehner, MF

2018-01-01

© 2018 The Authors Event attribution in the context of climate change seeks to understand the role of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions on extreme weather events, either specific events or classes of events. A common approach to event attribution uses climate model output under factual (real-world) and counterfactual (world that might have been without anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions) scenarios to estimate the probabilities of the event of interest under the two scenarios. Event a...

Range and number-of-levels effects in derived and stated measures of attribute importance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verlegh, PWJ; Schifferstein, HNJ; Wittink, DR

We study how the range of variation and the number of ttribute levels affect five measures of attribute importance: full profile conjoint estimates, ranges in attribute level attractiveness ratings. regression coefficients. graded paired comparisons. and self-reported ratings, We find that all

Attributes measurements by calorimetry in 15 to 30 minutes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fiarman, S.; Perry, R.B.

1987-01-01

An analysis of the early portion of the power-history data collected with both of the IAEA's air-cooled bulk calorimeters has demonstrated that such calorimeters can measure the power from preheated containers of plutonium oxide with an accuracy of 2 to 5% in 15 to 30 minutes. Material accountancy at plutonium facilities has a need for such a capability for measurement of Pu scrap. Also, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) could use just two calorimeters and a gamma-ray assay system for reliable variables and attributes measurements of plutonium mass during a two-day physical-inventory verification (PIV) at a mixed-oxide (MOX) fuel-fabrication facility. The assay results would be free of the concerns about sample moisture, impurities, and geometry that previously have limited the accuracy of assays based on neutron measurements

Routine internal- and external-quality control data in clinical laboratories for estimating measurement and diagnostic uncertainty using GUM principles.

Science.gov (United States)

Magnusson, Bertil; Ossowicki, Haakan; Rienitz, Olaf; Theodorsson, Elvar

2012-05-01

Healthcare laboratories are increasingly joining into larger laboratory organizations encompassing several physical laboratories. This caters for important new opportunities for re-defining the concept of a 'laboratory' to encompass all laboratories and measurement methods measuring the same measurand for a population of patients. In order to make measurement results, comparable bias should be minimized or eliminated and measurement uncertainty properly evaluated for all methods used for a particular patient population. The measurement as well as diagnostic uncertainty can be evaluated from internal and external quality control results using GUM principles. In this paper the uncertainty evaluations are described in detail using only two main components, within-laboratory reproducibility and uncertainty of the bias component according to a Nordtest guideline. The evaluation is exemplified for the determination of creatinine in serum for a conglomerate of laboratories both expressed in absolute units (μmol/L) and relative (%). An expanded measurement uncertainty of 12 μmol/L associated with concentrations of creatinine below 120 μmol/L and of 10% associated with concentrations above 120 μmol/L was estimated. The diagnostic uncertainty encompasses both measurement uncertainty and biological variation, and can be estimated for a single value and for a difference. This diagnostic uncertainty for the difference for two samples from the same patient was determined to be 14 μmol/L associated with concentrations of creatinine below 100 μmol/L and 14 % associated with concentrations above 100 μmol/L.

An analysis of combined standard uncertainty for radiochemical measurements of environmental samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berne, A.

1996-01-01

It is anticipated that future data acquisitions intended for use in radiological risk assessments will require the incorporation of uncertainty analysis. Often, only one aliquot of the sample is taken and a single determination is made. Under these circumstances, the total uncertainty is calculated using the open-quotes propagation of errorsclose quotes approach. However, there is no agreement in the radioanalytical community as to the exact equations to use. The Quality Assurance/Metrology Division of the Environmental Measurements Laboratory has developed a systematic process to compute uncertainties in constituent components of the analytical procedure, as well as the combined standard uncertainty (CSU). The equations for computation are presented here, with examples of their use. They have also been incorporated into a code for use in the spreadsheet application, QuattroPro trademark. Using the spreadsheet with appropriate inputs permits an analysis of the variations in the CSU as a function of several different variables. The relative importance of the open-quotes counting uncertaintyclose quotes can also be ascertained

Conditional uncertainty principle

Science.gov (United States)

Gour, Gilad; Grudka, Andrzej; Horodecki, Michał; Kłobus, Waldemar; Łodyga, Justyna; Narasimhachar, Varun

2018-04-01

We develop a general operational framework that formalizes the concept of conditional uncertainty in a measure-independent fashion. Our formalism is built upon a mathematical relation which we call conditional majorization. We define conditional majorization and, for the case of classical memory, we provide its thorough characterization in terms of monotones, i.e., functions that preserve the partial order under conditional majorization. We demonstrate the application of this framework by deriving two types of memory-assisted uncertainty relations, (1) a monotone-based conditional uncertainty relation and (2) a universal measure-independent conditional uncertainty relation, both of which set a lower bound on the minimal uncertainty that Bob has about Alice's pair of incompatible measurements, conditioned on arbitrary measurement that Bob makes on his own system. We next compare the obtained relations with their existing entropic counterparts and find that they are at least independent.

Assessment of the uncertainties in the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland (RPII) radon measurements service

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hanley, O. [Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland, 3 Clonskeagh Square, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14 (Ireland)], E-mail: ohanley@rpii.ie; Gutierrez-Villanueva, J.L. [Laboratorio LIBRA, Edificio I-D, Paseo Belen 3, 47011 Valladolid (Spain); Departamento de Fisica Teorica, Atomica y Optica, Facultad de Ciencias, Paseo Prado de la Magdalena, s/n. 47005 Valladolid (Spain)], E-mail: joselg@libra.uva.es; Currivan, L. [Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland, 3 Clonskeagh Square, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14 (Ireland)], E-mail: lcurrivan@rpii.ie; Pollard, D. [Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland, 3 Clonskeagh Square, Clonskeagh Road, Dublin 14 (Ireland)], E-mail: dpollard@rpii.ie

2008-10-15

The RPII radon (Rn) laboratory holds accreditation for the International Standard ISO/IEC 17025. A requirement of this standard is an estimate of the uncertainty of measurement. This work shows two approaches to estimate the uncertainty. The bottom-up approach involved identifying the components that were found to contribute to the uncertainty. Estimates were made for each of these components, which were combined to give a combined uncertainty of 13.5% at a Rn concentration of approximately 2500 Bq m{sup -3} at the 68% confidence level. By applying a coverage factor of k = 2, the expanded uncertainty is {+-}27% at the 95% confidence level. The top-down approach used information previously gathered from intercomparison exercises to estimate the uncertainty. This investigation found an expanded uncertainty of {+-}22% at approximately 95% confidence level. This is good agreement for such independent estimates.

Assessment of the uncertainties in the Radiological Protection Institute of Ireland (RPII) radon measurements service.

Science.gov (United States)

Hanley, O; Gutiérrez-Villanueva, J L; Currivan, L; Pollard, D

2008-10-01

The RPII radon (Rn) laboratory holds accreditation for the International Standard ISO/IEC 17025. A requirement of this standard is an estimate of the uncertainty of measurement. This work shows two approaches to estimate the uncertainty. The bottom-up approach involved identifying the components that were found to contribute to the uncertainty. Estimates were made for each of these components, which were combined to give a combined uncertainty of 13.5% at a Rn concentration of approximately 2500 Bq m(-3) at the 68% confidence level. By applying a coverage factor of k=2, the expanded uncertainty is +/-27% at the 95% confidence level. The top-down approach used information previously gathered from intercomparison exercises to estimate the uncertainty. This investigation found an expanded uncertainty of +/-22% at approximately 95% confidence level. This is good agreement for such independent estimates.

Instrumental measurement of beer taste attributes using an electronic tongue.

Science.gov (United States)

Rudnitskaya, Alisa; Polshin, Evgeny; Kirsanov, Dmitry; Lammertyn, Jeroen; Nicolai, Bart; Saison, Daan; Delvaux, Freddy R; Delvaux, Filip; Legin, Andrey

2009-07-30

The present study deals with the evaluation of the electronic tongue multisensor system as an analytical tool for the rapid assessment of taste and flavour of beer. Fifty samples of Belgian and Dutch beers of different types (lager beers, ales, wheat beers, etc.), which were characterized with respect to the sensory properties, were measured using the electronic tongue (ET) based on potentiometric chemical sensors developed in Laboratory of Chemical Sensors of St. Petersburg University. The analysis of the sensory data and the calculation of the compromise average scores was made using STATIS. The beer samples were discriminated using both sensory panel and ET data based on PCA, and both data sets were compared using Canonical Correlation Analysis. The ET data were related to the sensory beer attributes using Partial Least Square regression for each attribute separately. Validation was done based on a test set comprising one-third of all samples. The ET was capable of predicting with good precision 20 sensory attributes of beer including such as bitter, sweet, sour, fruity, caramel, artificial, burnt, intensity and body.

Instrumental measurement of beer taste attributes using an electronic tongue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rudnitskaya, Alisa; Polshin, Evgeny; Kirsanov, Dmitry; Lammertyn, Jeroen; Nicolai, Bart; Saison, Daan; Delvaux, Freddy R.; Delvaux, Filip; Legin, Andrey

2009-01-01

The present study deals with the evaluation of the electronic tongue multisensor system as an analytical tool for the rapid assessment of taste and flavour of beer. Fifty samples of Belgian and Dutch beers of different types (lager beers, ales, wheat beers, etc.), which were characterized with respect to the sensory properties, were measured using the electronic tongue (ET) based on potentiometric chemical sensors developed in Laboratory of Chemical Sensors of St. Petersburg University. The analysis of the sensory data and the calculation of the compromise average scores was made using STATIS. The beer samples were discriminated using both sensory panel and ET data based on PCA, and both data sets were compared using Canonical Correlation Analysis. The ET data were related to the sensory beer attributes using Partial Least Square regression for each attribute separately. Validation was done based on a test set comprising one-third of all samples. The ET was capable of predicting with good precision 20 sensory attributes of beer including such as bitter, sweet, sour, fruity, caramel, artificial, burnt, intensity and body.

Instrumental measurement of beer taste attributes using an electronic tongue

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rudnitskaya, Alisa, E-mail: alisa.rudnitskaya@gmail.com [Chemistry Department, University of Aveiro, Aveiro (Portugal); Laboratory of Chemical Sensors, Chemistry Department, St. Petersburg University, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Polshin, Evgeny [Laboratory of Chemical Sensors, Chemistry Department, St. Petersburg University, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); BIOSYST/MeBioS, Catholic University of Leuven, W. De Croylaan 42, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Kirsanov, Dmitry [Laboratory of Chemical Sensors, Chemistry Department, St. Petersburg University, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation); Lammertyn, Jeroen; Nicolai, Bart [BIOSYST/MeBioS, Catholic University of Leuven, W. De Croylaan 42, B-3001 Leuven (Belgium); Saison, Daan; Delvaux, Freddy R.; Delvaux, Filip [Centre for Malting and Brewing Sciences, Katholieke Universiteit Leuven, Heverelee (Belgium); Legin, Andrey [Laboratory of Chemical Sensors, Chemistry Department, St. Petersburg University, St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)

2009-07-30

The present study deals with the evaluation of the electronic tongue multisensor system as an analytical tool for the rapid assessment of taste and flavour of beer. Fifty samples of Belgian and Dutch beers of different types (lager beers, ales, wheat beers, etc.), which were characterized with respect to the sensory properties, were measured using the electronic tongue (ET) based on potentiometric chemical sensors developed in Laboratory of Chemical Sensors of St. Petersburg University. The analysis of the sensory data and the calculation of the compromise average scores was made using STATIS. The beer samples were discriminated using both sensory panel and ET data based on PCA, and both data sets were compared using Canonical Correlation Analysis. The ET data were related to the sensory beer attributes using Partial Least Square regression for each attribute separately. Validation was done based on a test set comprising one-third of all samples. The ET was capable of predicting with good precision 20 sensory attributes of beer including such as bitter, sweet, sour, fruity, caramel, artificial, burnt, intensity and body.

Joint measurements of spin, operational locality and uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Andersson, E.; Barnett, S.M.; Aspect, A.

2005-01-01

Full text: Joint measurements of non-commuting observables are possible within quantum mechanics, if one accepts an increase in the variances of the jointly measured observables. In this contribution, we discuss joint measurements of spin 1/2 along any two directions. Starting from an operational locality principle, we show how to obtain the known bound on how sharp the joint measurement can be. Operational locality here means, that no operation performed at a quantum system at one location can instantaneously affect a system at another location. The measurement bound is general and is here obtained without reference to any quantum measurement formalism. We find that the bound is formally identical to a Bell inequality of the CHSH type, and we also give a direct interpretation of the measurement bound in terms of an uncertainty relation. A simple way to realise the joint measurement for the case of photon polarization is presented. Further to their fundamental interest, quantum joint measurements of non-commuting observables can be related to state estimation. They are also of interest in quantum information, e.g. as strategies for eavesdropping in quantum cryptography. (author)

Evaluation of uncertainty in the measurement of environmental electromagnetic fields

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vulevic, B.; Osmokrovic, P.

2010-01-01

With regard to Non-ionising radiation protection, the relationship between human exposure to electromagnetic fields and health is controversial. Electromagnetic fields have become omnipresent in the daily environment. This paper assesses the problem of how to compare a measurement result with a limit fixed by the standard for human exposure to electric, magnetic and electromagnetic fields (0 Hz-300 GHz). The purpose of the paper is an appropriate representation of the basic information about evaluation of measurement uncertainty. (authors)

The role of the uncertainty of measurement of serum creatinine concentrations in the diagnosis of acute kidney injury.

Science.gov (United States)

Kin Tekce, Buket; Tekce, Hikmet; Aktas, Gulali; Uyeturk, Ugur

2016-01-01

Uncertainty of measurement is the numeric expression of the errors associated with all measurements taken in clinical laboratories. Serum creatinine concentration is the most common diagnostic marker for acute kidney injury. The goal of this study was to determine the effect of the uncertainty of measurement of serum creatinine concentrations on the diagnosis of acute kidney injury. We calculated the uncertainty of measurement of serum creatinine according to the Nordtest Guide. Retrospectively, we identified 289 patients who were evaluated for acute kidney injury. Of the total patient pool, 233 were diagnosed with acute kidney injury using the AKIN classification scheme and then were compared using statistical analysis. We determined nine probabilities of the uncertainty of measurement of serum creatinine concentrations. There was a statistically significant difference in the number of patients diagnosed with acute kidney injury when uncertainty of measurement was taken into consideration (first probability compared to the fifth p = 0.023 and first probability compared to the ninth p = 0.012). We found that the uncertainty of measurement for serum creatinine concentrations was an important factor for correctly diagnosing acute kidney injury. In addition, based on the AKIN classification scheme, minimizing the total allowable error levels for serum creatinine concentrations is necessary for the accurate diagnosis of acute kidney injury by clinicians.

Understanding uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Lindley, Dennis V

2013-01-01

Praise for the First Edition ""...a reference for everyone who is interested in knowing and handling uncertainty.""-Journal of Applied Statistics The critically acclaimed First Edition of Understanding Uncertainty provided a study of uncertainty addressed to scholars in all fields, showing that uncertainty could be measured by probability, and that probability obeyed three basic rules that enabled uncertainty to be handled sensibly in everyday life. These ideas were extended to embrace the scientific method and to show how decisions, containing an uncertain element, could be rationally made.

Uncertainty, God, and scrupulosity: Uncertainty salience and priming God concepts interact to cause greater fears of sin.

Science.gov (United States)

Fergus, Thomas A; Rowatt, Wade C

2015-03-01

Difficulties tolerating uncertainty are considered central to scrupulosity, a moral/religious presentation of obsessive-compulsive disorder (OCD). We examined whether uncertainty salience (i.e., exposure to a state of uncertainty) caused fears of sin and fears of God, as well as whether priming God concepts affected the impact of uncertainty salience on those fears. An internet sample of community adults (N = 120) who endorsed holding a belief in God or a higher power were randomly assigned to an experimental manipulation of (1) salience (uncertainty or insecurity) and (2) prime (God concepts or neutral). As predicted, participants who received the uncertainty salience and God concept priming reported the greatest fears of sin. There were no mean-level differences in the other conditions. The effect was not attributable to religiosity and the manipulations did not cause negative affect. We used a nonclinical sample recruited from the internet. These results support cognitive-behavioral models suggesting that religious uncertainty is important to scrupulosity. Implications of these results for future research are discussed. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear density functional theory and information content of new measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

McDonnell, J D; Schunck, N; Higdon, D; Sarich, J; Wild, S M; Nazarewicz, W

2015-03-27

Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models, to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability, to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment, and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. The example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

Fundamental uncertainty limit of optical flow velocimetry according to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Andreas

2016-11-01

Optical flow velocity measurements are important for understanding the complex behavior of flows. Although a huge variety of methods exist, they are either based on a Doppler or a time-of-flight measurement principle. Doppler velocimetry evaluates the velocity-dependent frequency shift of light scattered at a moving particle, whereas time-of-flight velocimetry evaluates the traveled distance of a scattering particle per time interval. Regarding the aim of achieving a minimal measurement uncertainty, it is unclear if one principle allows to achieve lower uncertainties or if both principles can achieve equal uncertainties. For this reason, the natural, fundamental uncertainty limit according to Heisenberg's uncertainty principle is derived for Doppler and time-of-flight measurement principles, respectively. The obtained limits of the velocity uncertainty are qualitatively identical showing, e.g., a direct proportionality for the absolute value of the velocity to the power of 32 and an indirect proportionality to the square root of the scattered light power. Hence, both measurement principles have identical potentials regarding the fundamental uncertainty limit due to the quantum mechanical behavior of photons. This fundamental limit can be attained (at least asymptotically) in reality either with Doppler or time-of-flight methods, because the respective Cramér-Rao bounds for dominating photon shot noise, which is modeled as white Poissonian noise, are identical with the conclusions from Heisenberg's uncertainty principle.

Retrievals and uncertainty analysis of aerosol single scattering albedo from MFRSR measurements

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yin, Bangsheng; Min, Qilong; Joseph, Everette

2015-01-01

Aerosol single scattering albedo (SSA) can be retrieved from the ratio of diffuse horizontal and direct normal fluxes measured from multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer (MFRSR). In this study, the measurement channels at 415 nm and 870 nm are selected for aerosol optical depth (AOD) and Angstrom coefficient retrievals, and the measurements at 415 nm are used for aerosol SSA retrievals with the constraint of retrieved Angstrom coefficient. We extensively assessed various issues impacting on the accuracy of SSA retrieval from measurements to input parameters and assumptions. For cloud-free days with mean aerosol loading of 0.13–0.60, our sensitivity study indicated that: (1) 1% calibration uncertainty can result in 0.8–3.7% changes in retrieved SSA; (2) without considering the cosine respond correction and/or forward scattering correction will result in underestimation of 1.1–3.3% and/or 0.73% in retrieved SSA; (3) an overestimation of 0.1 in asymmetry factor can result in an underestimation of 2.54–3.4% in retrieved SSA; (4) for small aerosol loading (e.g., 0.13), the uncertainty associated with the choice of Rayleigh optical depth value can result in non-negligible change in retrieved SSA (e.g., 0.015); (5) an uncertainty of 0.05 for surface albedo can result in changes of 1.49–5.4% in retrieved SSA. We applied the retrieval algorithm to the MFRSR measurements at the Atmospheric Radiation Measurements (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The retrieved results of AOD, Angstrom coefficient, and SSA are basically consistent with other independent measurements from co-located instruments at the site. - Highlights: • Aerosol SSA is derived from MFRSR measured diffuse to direct normal irradiance ratio. • We extensively assessed various issues impacting on the accuracy of SSA retrieval. • The issues are mainly from measurements and model input parameters and assumptions. • We applied the retrieval algorithm to the MFRSR measurements at ARM SGP

Time-Resolved Particle Image Velocimetry Measurements with Wall Shear Stress and Uncertainty Quantification for the FDA Nozzle Model.

Science.gov (United States)

Raben, Jaime S; Hariharan, Prasanna; Robinson, Ronald; Malinauskas, Richard; Vlachos, Pavlos P

2016-03-01

We present advanced particle image velocimetry (PIV) processing, post-processing, and uncertainty estimation techniques to support the validation of computational fluid dynamics analyses of medical devices. This work is an extension of a previous FDA-sponsored multi-laboratory study, which used a medical device mimicking geometry referred to as the FDA benchmark nozzle model. Experimental measurements were performed using time-resolved PIV at five overlapping regions of the model for Reynolds numbers in the nozzle throat of 500, 2000, 5000, and 8000. Images included a twofold increase in spatial resolution in comparison to the previous study. Data was processed using ensemble correlation, dynamic range enhancement, and phase correlations to increase signal-to-noise ratios and measurement accuracy, and to resolve flow regions with large velocity ranges and gradients, which is typical of many blood-contacting medical devices. Parameters relevant to device safety, including shear stress at the wall and in bulk flow, were computed using radial basis functions. In addition, in-field spatially resolved pressure distributions, Reynolds stresses, and energy dissipation rates were computed from PIV measurements. Velocity measurement uncertainty was estimated directly from the PIV correlation plane, and uncertainty analysis for wall shear stress at each measurement location was performed using a Monte Carlo model. Local velocity uncertainty varied greatly and depended largely on local conditions such as particle seeding, velocity gradients, and particle displacements. Uncertainty in low velocity regions in the sudden expansion section of the nozzle was greatly reduced by over an order of magnitude when dynamic range enhancement was applied. Wall shear stress uncertainty was dominated by uncertainty contributions from velocity estimations, which were shown to account for 90-99% of the total uncertainty. This study provides advancements in the PIV processing methodologies over

International Target Values 2010 for Measurement Uncertainties in Safeguarding Nuclear Materials

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhao, M.; Penkin, M.; Norman, C.; Balsley, S. [IAEA, Vienna (Australia); others, and

2012-12-15

This issue of the International Target Values (ITVs) represents the sixth revision, following the first release of such tables issued in 1979 by the ESARDA/WGDA. The ITVs are uncertainties to be considered in judging the reliability of analytical techniques applied to industrial nuclear and fissile material, which are subject to safeguards verification. The tabulated values represent estimates of the 'state of the practice' which should be achievable under routine measurement conditions. The most recent standard conventions in representing uncertainty have been considered, while maintaining a format that allows comparison with the previous releases of the ITVs. The present report explains why target values are needed, how the concept evolved and how they relate to the operator's and inspector's measurement systems. The ITVs-2010 are intended to be used by plant operators and safeguards organizations, as a reference of the quality of measurements achievable in nuclear material accountancy, and for planning purposes. The report suggests that the use of ITVs can be beneficial for statistical inferences regarding the significance of operator-inspector differences whenever valid performance values are not available.

Road safety performance measures and AADT uncertainty from short-term counts.

Science.gov (United States)

Milligan, Craig; Montufar, Jeannette; Regehr, Jonathan; Ghanney, Bartholomew

2016-12-01

The objective of this paper is to enable better risk analysis of road safety performance measures by creating the first knowledge base on uncertainty surrounding annual average daily traffic (AADT) estimates when the estimates are derived by expanding short-term counts with the individual permanent counter method. Many road safety performance measures and performance models use AADT as an input. While there is an awareness that the input suffers from uncertainty, the uncertainty is not well known or accounted for. The paper samples data from a set of 69 permanent automatic traffic recorders in Manitoba, Canada, to simulate almost 2 million short-term counts over a five year period. These short-term counts are expanded to AADT estimates by transferring temporal information from a directly linked nearby permanent count control station, and the resulting AADT values are compared to a known reference AADT to compute errors. The impacts of five factors on AADT error are considered: length of short-term count, number of short-term counts, use of weekday versus weekend counts, distance from a count to its expansion control station, and the AADT at the count site. The mean absolute transfer error for expanded AADT estimates is 6.7%, and this value varied by traffic pattern group from 5% to 10.5%. Reference percentiles of the error distribution show that almost all errors are between -20% and +30%. Error decreases substantially by using a 48-h count instead of a 24-h count, and only slightly by using two counts instead of one. Weekday counts are superior to weekend counts, especially if the count is only 24h. Mean absolute transfer error increases with distance to control station (elasticity 0.121, p=0.001), and increases with AADT (elasticity 0.857, proad safety performance measures that use AADT as inputs. Analytical frameworks for such analysis exist but are infrequently used in road safety because the evidence base on AADT uncertainty is not well developed. Copyright �

Eye tracking measures of uncertainty during perceptual decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Brunyé, Tad T; Gardony, Aaron L

2017-10-01

Perceptual decision making involves gathering and interpreting sensory information to effectively categorize the world and inform behavior. For instance, a radiologist distinguishing the presence versus absence of a tumor, or a luggage screener categorizing objects as threatening or non-threatening. In many cases, sensory information is not sufficient to reliably disambiguate the nature of a stimulus, and resulting decisions are done under conditions of uncertainty. The present study asked whether several oculomotor metrics might prove sensitive to transient states of uncertainty during perceptual decision making. Participants viewed images with varying visual clarity and were asked to categorize them as faces or houses, and rate the certainty of their decisions, while we used eye tracking to monitor fixations, saccades, blinks, and pupil diameter. Results demonstrated that decision certainty influenced several oculomotor variables, including fixation frequency and duration, the frequency, peak velocity, and amplitude of saccades, and phasic pupil diameter. Whereas most measures tended to change linearly along with decision certainty, pupil diameter revealed more nuanced and dynamic information about the time course of perceptual decision making. Together, results demonstrate robust alterations in eye movement behavior as a function of decision certainty and attention demands, and suggest that monitoring oculomotor variables during applied task performance may prove valuable for identifying and remediating transient states of uncertainty. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Measurement uncertainties in regression analysis with scarcity of data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sousa, J A; Ribeiro, A S; Cox, M G; Harris, P M; Sousa, J F V

2010-01-01

The evaluation of measurement uncertainty, in certain fields of science, faces the problem of scarcity of data. This is certainly the case in the testing of geological soils in civil engineering, where tests can take several days or weeks and where the same sample is not available for further testing, being destroyed during the experiment. In this particular study attention will be paid to triaxial compression tests used to typify particular soils. The purpose of the testing is to determine two parameters that characterize the soil, namely, cohesion and friction angle. These parameters are defined in terms of the intercept and slope of a straight line fitted to a small number of points (usually three) derived from experimental data. The use of ordinary least squares to obtain uncertainties associated with estimates of the two parameters would be unreliable if there were only three points (and no replicates) and hence only one degrees of freedom.

Uncertainty in projected impacts of climate change on biodiversity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Garcia, Raquel A.

Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet, uncerta......Evidence for shifts in the phenologies and distributions of species over recent decades has often been attributed to climate change. The prospect of greater and faster changes in climate during the 21st century has spurred a stream of studies anticipating future biodiversity impacts. Yet......, uncertainty is inherent to both projected climate changes and their effects on biodiversity, and needs to be understood before projections can be used. This thesis seeks to elucidate some of the uncertainties clouding assessments of biodiversity impacts from climate change, and explores ways to address them...... models, are shown to be affected by multiple uncertainties. Different model algorithms produce different outputs, as do alternative future climate models and scenarios of future emissions of greenhouse gases. Another uncertainty arises due to omission of species with small sample sizes, which...

Measurement uncertainty associated with chromatic confocal profilometry for 3D surface texture characterization of natural human enamel.

Science.gov (United States)

Mullan, F; Bartlett, D; Austin, R S

2017-06-01

To investigate the measurement performance of a chromatic confocal profilometer for quantification of surface texture of natural human enamel in vitro. Contributions to the measurement uncertainty from all potential sources of measurement error using a chromatic confocal profilometer and surface metrology software were quantified using a series of surface metrology calibration artifacts and pre-worn enamel samples. The 3D surface texture analysis protocol was optimized across 0.04mm 2 of natural and unpolished enamel undergoing dietary acid erosion (pH 3.2, titratable acidity 41.3mmolOH/L). Flatness deviations due to the x, y stage mechanical movement were the major contribution to the measurement uncertainty; with maximum Sz flatness errors of 0.49μm. Whereas measurement noise; non-linearity's in x, y, z and enamel sample dimensional instability contributed minimal errors. The measurement errors were propagated into an uncertainty budget following a Type B uncertainty evaluation in order to calculate the Standard Combined Uncertainty (u c ), which was ±0.28μm. Statistically significant increases in the median (IQR) roughness (Sa) of the polished samples occurred after 15 (+0.17 (0.13)μm), 30 (+0.12 (0.09)μm) and 45 (+0.18 (0.15)μm) min of erosion (Pchromatic confocal profilometry was from flatness deviations however by optimizing measurement protocols the profilometer successfully characterized surface texture changes in enamel from erosive wear in vitro. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Dental Materials. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty in measurements in practice ionization chamber; Incerteza nas medidas realizadas pela pratica da camara de ionizacao

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sales, Emer; Pinto, Fernando Sandi; Sousa Junior, Samuel Facanha; Freitas, Dayslon Luiz Gaudaret; Andrade, Lucio das Chagas de, E-mail: fernandopintofis@gmail.com [Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro (UERJ), RJ (Brazil)

2016-07-01

The calculation of uncertainty is a mathematical tool widely used in the analysis of experimental data, ensuring that the values obtained by measuring equipment are the most accurate and close to the possible real. This paper presents a theoretical review of uncertainty, and with application of objective determination of uncertainty for repeatability and reproducibility of processes measuring for determining dose of a radioactive source, in practice ionization chamber, held at the Professional Master of Medical Physics State University of Rio de Janeiro. (author)

Uncertain multi-attribute decision making methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Xu, Zeshui

2015-01-01

This book introduces methods for uncertain multi-attribute decision making including uncertain multi-attribute group decision making and their applications to supply chain management, investment decision making, personnel assessment, redesigning products, maintenance services, military system efficiency evaluation. Multi-attribute decision making, also known as multi-objective decision making with finite alternatives, is an important component of modern decision science. The theory and methods of multi-attribute decision making have been extensively applied in engineering, economics, management and military contexts, such as venture capital project evaluation, facility location, bidding, development ranking of industrial sectors and so on. Over the last few decades, great attention has been paid to research on multi-attribute decision making in uncertain settings, due to the increasing complexity and uncertainty of supposedly objective aspects and the fuzziness of human thought. This book can be used as a ref...

Evaluation of uncertainty in the measurement of sense of natural language constructions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bisikalo Oleg V.

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The task of evaluating uncertainty in the measurement of sense in natural language constructions (NLCs was researched through formalization of the notions of the language image, formalization of artificial cognitive systems (ACSs and the formalization of units of meaning. The method for measuring the sense of natural language constructions incorporated fuzzy relations of meaning, which ensures that information about the links between lemmas of the text is taken into account, permitting the evaluation of two types of measurement uncertainty of sense characteristics. Using developed applications programs, experiments were conducted to investigate the proposed method to tackle the identification of informative characteristics of text. The experiments resulted in dependencies of parameters being obtained in order to utilise the Pareto distribution law to define relations between lemmas, analysis of which permits the identification of exponents of an average number of connections of the language image as the most informative characteristics of text.

Measurement uncertainty recapture (MUR) power uprates operation at Kuosheng Nuclear Power Station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chang Chinjang; Wang Tunglu; Lin Chihpao

2009-01-01

Measurement Uncertainty Recapture PowerUprates (MUR PU) are achieved through the use of state-of-the-art feedwater flow measurement devices, i.e., ultrasonic flow meters (UFMs), that reduce the degree of uncertainty associated with feedwater flow measurement and in turn provide for a more accurate calculation of thermal power. The Institute of Nuclear Energy Research (INER) teamed with Sargent and Lundy, LLC (S and L), Pacific Engineers and Constructors, Ltd (PECL), and AREVA to develop a program and plan for the Kuosheng Nuclear Power Station (KNPS) MUR PU Engineering Service Project and for the assistance to Kuosheng MUR PU operation. After regulator's approval of the licensing requests, KSNPS conducted the power ascension test and switchover to the new rated thermal power for Unit 2 and Unit 1 on 7/7/2007 and 11/30/2007, respectively. From then on, KNPS became the first nuclear power plant implementing MUR PU operation in Taiwan and in Asia. (author)

Quantifying uncertainty in the measurement of arsenic in suspended particulate matter by Atomic Absorption Spectrometry with hydride generator

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahuja Tarushee

2011-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Arsenic is the toxic element, which creates several problems in human being specially when inhaled through air. So the accurate and precise measurement of arsenic in suspended particulate matter (SPM is of prime importance as it gives information about the level of toxicity in the environment, and preventive measures could be taken in the effective areas. Quality assurance is equally important in the measurement of arsenic in SPM samples before making any decision. The quality and reliability of the data of such volatile elements depends upon the measurement of uncertainty of each step involved from sampling to analysis. The analytical results quantifying uncertainty gives a measure of the confidence level of the concerned laboratory. So the main objective of this study was to determine arsenic content in SPM samples with uncertainty budget and to find out various potential sources of uncertainty, which affects the results. Keeping these facts, we have selected seven diverse sites of Delhi (National Capital of India for quantification of arsenic content in SPM samples with uncertainty budget following sampling by HVS to analysis by Atomic Absorption Spectrometer-Hydride Generator (AAS-HG. In the measurement of arsenic in SPM samples so many steps are involved from sampling to final result and we have considered various potential sources of uncertainties. The calculation of uncertainty is based on ISO/IEC17025: 2005 document and EURACHEM guideline. It has been found that the final results mostly depend on the uncertainty in measurement mainly due to repeatability, final volume prepared for analysis, weighing balance and sampling by HVS. After the analysis of data of seven diverse sites of Delhi, it has been concluded that during the period from 31st Jan. 2008 to 7th Feb. 2008 the arsenic concentration varies from 1.44 ± 0.25 to 5.58 ± 0.55 ng/m3 with 95% confidence level (k = 2.

Uncertainty quantification for nuclear density functional theory and information content of new measurements

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McDonnell, J. D. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Schunck, N. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Higdon, D. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Sarich, J. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Wild, S. M. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Nazarewicz, W. [Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States); Oak Ridge National Lab., Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Univ. of Warsaw, Warsaw (Poland)

2015-03-24

Statistical tools of uncertainty quantification can be used to assess the information content of measured observables with respect to present-day theoretical models, to estimate model errors and thereby improve predictive capability, to extrapolate beyond the regions reached by experiment, and to provide meaningful input to applications and planned measurements. To showcase new opportunities offered by such tools, we make a rigorous analysis of theoretical statistical uncertainties in nuclear density functional theory using Bayesian inference methods. By considering the recent mass measurements from the Canadian Penning Trap at Argonne National Laboratory, we demonstrate how the Bayesian analysis and a direct least-squares optimization, combined with high-performance computing, can be used to assess the information content of the new data with respect to a model based on the Skyrme energy density functional approach. Employing the posterior probability distribution computed with a Gaussian process emulator, we apply the Bayesian framework to propagate theoretical statistical uncertainties in predictions of nuclear masses, two-neutron dripline, and fission barriers. Overall, we find that the new mass measurements do not impose a constraint that is strong enough to lead to significant changes in the model parameters. As a result, the example discussed in this study sets the stage for quantifying and maximizing the impact of new measurements with respect to current modeling and guiding future experimental efforts, thus enhancing the experiment-theory cycle in the scientific method.

A statistical approach to quantify uncertainty in carbon monoxide measurements at the Izaña global GAW station: 2008-2011

Science.gov (United States)

Gomez-Pelaez, A. J.; Ramos, R.; Gomez-Trueba, V.; Novelli, P. C.; Campo-Hernandez, R.

2013-03-01

Atmospheric CO in situ measurements are carried out at the Izaña (Tenerife) global GAW (Global Atmosphere Watch Programme of the World Meteorological Organization - WMO) mountain station using a Reduction Gas Analyser (RGA). In situ measurements at Izaña are representative of the subtropical Northeast Atlantic free troposphere, especially during nighttime. We present the measurement system configuration, the response function, the calibration scheme, the data processing, the Izaña 2008-2011 CO nocturnal time series, and the mean diurnal cycle by months. We have developed a rigorous uncertainty analysis for carbon monoxide measurements carried out at the Izaña station, which could be applied to other GAW stations. We determine the combined standard measurement uncertainty taking into consideration four contributing components: uncertainty of the WMO standard gases interpolated over the range of measurement, the uncertainty that takes into account the agreement between the standard gases and the response function used, the uncertainty due to the repeatability of the injections, and the propagated uncertainty related to the temporal consistency of the response function parameters (which also takes into account the covariance between the parameters). The mean value of the combined standard uncertainty decreased significantly after March 2009, from 2.37 nmol mol-1 to 1.66 nmol mol-1, due to improvements in the measurement system. A fifth type of uncertainty we call representation uncertainty is considered when some of the data necessary to compute the temporal mean are absent. Any computed mean has also a propagated uncertainty arising from the uncertainties of the data used to compute the mean. The law of propagation depends on the type of uncertainty component (random or systematic). In situ hourly means are compared with simultaneous and collocated NOAA flask samples. The uncertainty of the differences is computed and used to determine whether the differences are

Measurement Uncertainty for Finite Quantum Observables

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

René Schwonnek

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Measurement uncertainty relations are lower bounds on the errors of any approximate joint measurement of two or more quantum observables. The aim of this paper is to provide methods to compute optimal bounds of this type. The basic method is semidefinite programming, which we apply to arbitrary finite collections of projective observables on a finite dimensional Hilbert space. The quantification of errors is based on an arbitrary cost function, which assigns a penalty to getting result x rather than y, for any pair ( x , y . This induces a notion of optimal transport cost for a pair of probability distributions, and we include an Appendix with a short summary of optimal transport theory as needed in our context. There are then different ways to form an overall figure of merit from the comparison of distributions. We consider three, which are related to different physical testing scenarios. The most thorough test compares the transport distances between the marginals of a joint measurement and the reference observables for every input state. Less demanding is a test just on the states for which a “true value” is known in the sense that the reference observable yields a definite outcome. Finally, we can measure a deviation as a single expectation value by comparing the two observables on the two parts of a maximally-entangled state. All three error quantities have the property that they vanish if and only if the tested observable is equal to the reference. The theory is illustrated with some characteristic examples.

Calculation of uncertainties associated to environmental radioactivity measurements and their functions. Practical Procedure II

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gascon, C.; Anton, M.P.

1997-01-01

Environmental radioactivity measurements are mainly affected by counting uncertainties. In this report the uncertainties associated to certain functions related to activity concentration calculations are determined. Some practical exercise are presented to calculate the uncertainties associated to: a) Chemical recovery of a radiochemical separation when employing tracers (i.e. Pu and Am purification from a sediment sample). b) Indirect determination of a mother radionuclide through one of its daughters (i. e. ''210 Pb quantification following its daughter ''210 Po building-up activity). c) Time span from last separation date of one of the components of a disintegration chain (i.e. Am last purification date from a nuclear weapons following ''241 Am and ''241 Pu measurements). Calculations concerning example b) and c) are based on Baterman equations, regulating radioactive equilibria. Although the exercises here presented are performed with certain radionuclides, they could be applied as generic procedures for other alpha-emitting radioelements

Storage flux uncertainty impact on eddy covariance net ecosystem exchange measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Nicolini, Giacomo; Aubinet, Marc; Feigenwinter, Christian; Heinesch, Bernard; Lindroth, Anders; Mamadou, Ossénatou; Moderow, Uta; Mölder, Meelis; Montagnani, Leonardo; Rebmann, Corinna; Papale, Dario

2017-04-01

Complying with several assumption and simplifications, most of the carbon budget studies based on eddy covariance (EC) measurements, quantify the net ecosystem exchange (NEE) by summing the flux obtained by EC (Fc) and the storage flux (Sc). Sc is the rate of change of CO2, within the so called control volume below the EC measurement level, given by the difference in the instantaneous profiles of concentration at the beginning and end of the EC averaging period, divided by the averaging period. While cumulating over time led to a nullification of Sc, it can be significant at short time periods. The approaches used to estimate Sc fluxes largely vary, from measurements based only on a single sampling point (usually located at the EC measurement height) to measurements based on several sampling profiles distributed within the control volume. Furthermore, the number of sampling points within each profile vary, according to their height and the ecosystem typology. It follows that measurement accuracy increases with the sampling intensity within the control volume. In this work we use the experimental dataset collected during the ADVEX campaign in which Sc flux has been measured in three similar forest sites by the use of 5 sampling profiles (towers). Our main objective is to quantify the impact of Sc measurement uncertainty on NEE estimates. Results show that different methods may produce substantially different Sc flux estimates, with problematic consequences in case high frequency (half-hourly) data are needed for the analysis. However, the uncertainty on long-term estimates may be tolerate.

Entropic uncertainty for spin-1/2 XXX chains in the presence of inhomogeneous magnetic fields and its steering via weak measurement reversals

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Dong; Ming, Fei; Huang, Ai-Jun; Sun, Wen-Yang; Ye, Liu

2017-09-01

The uncertainty principle configures a low bound to the measuring precision for a pair of non-commuting observables, and hence is considerably nontrivial to quantum precision measurement in the field of quantum information theory. In this letter, we consider the entropic uncertainty relation (EUR) in the context of quantum memory in a two-qubit isotropic Heisenberg spin chain. Specifically, we explore the dynamics of EUR in a practical scenario, where two associated nodes of a one-dimensional XXX-spin chain, under an inhomogeneous magnetic field, are connected to a thermal entanglement. We show that the temperature and magnetic field effect can lead to the inflation of the measuring uncertainty, stemming from the reduction of systematic quantum correlation. Notably, we reveal that, firstly, the uncertainty is not fully dependent on the observed quantum correlation of the system; secondly, the dynamical behaviors of the measuring uncertainty are relatively distinct with respect to ferromagnetism and antiferromagnetism chains. Meanwhile, we deduce that the measuring uncertainty is dramatically correlated with the mixedness of the system, implying that smaller mixedness tends to reduce the uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose an effective strategy to control the uncertainty of interest by means of quantum weak measurement reversal. Therefore, our work may shed light on the dynamics of the measuring uncertainty in the Heisenberg spin chain, and thus be important to quantum precision measurement in various solid-state systems.

The uncertainty evaluation of measurement for uranium in UF_6 hydrolysate by potentiometric titration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang Haiying; Cheng Ruoyu; Meng Xiujun

2014-01-01

Based on the building of mathematical model, this paper analyzed the origin of component of indeterminacy of which the measurement result for uranium in uranium hexafluoride hydrolysate by potentiometric titration, also each uncertainty was calculated and the expanded uncertainty was given. By evaluation the result of the uranium concentration is that: (158.88 + 1.22) mgU/mL, K = 2, P = 95%. (authors)

Fragmentation uncertainties in hadronic observables for top-quark mass measurements

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gennaro Corcella

2018-04-01

Full Text Available We study the Monte Carlo uncertainties due to modeling of hadronization and showering in the extraction of the top-quark mass from observables that use exclusive hadronic final states in top decays, such as t→anything+J/ψ or t→anything+(B→charged tracks, where B is a B-hadron. To this end, we investigate the sensitivity of the top-quark mass, determined by means of a few observables already proposed in the literature as well as some new proposals, to the relevant parameters of event generators, such as HERWIG 6 and PYTHIA 8. We find that constraining those parameters at O(1%–10% is required to avoid a Monte Carlo uncertainty on mt greater than 500 MeV. For the sake of achieving the needed accuracy on such parameters, we examine the sensitivity of the top-quark mass measured from spectral features, such as peaks, endpoints and distributions of EB, mBℓ, and some mT2-like variables. We find that restricting oneself to regions sufficiently close to the endpoints enables one to substantially decrease the dependence on the Monte Carlo parameters, but at the price of inflating significantly the statistical uncertainties. To ameliorate this situation we study how well the data on top-quark production and decay at the LHC can be utilized to constrain the showering and hadronization variables. We find that a global exploration of several calibration observables, sensitive to the Monte Carlo parameters but very mildly to mt, can offer useful constraints on the parameters, as long as such quantities are measured with a 1% precision.

Fragmentation uncertainties in hadronic observables for top-quark mass measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Corcella, Gennaro; Franceschini, Roberto; Kim, Doojin

2018-04-01

We study the Monte Carlo uncertainties due to modeling of hadronization and showering in the extraction of the top-quark mass from observables that use exclusive hadronic final states in top decays, such as t →anything + J / ψ or t →anything + (B →charged tracks), where B is a B-hadron. To this end, we investigate the sensitivity of the top-quark mass, determined by means of a few observables already proposed in the literature as well as some new proposals, to the relevant parameters of event generators, such as HERWIG 6 and PYTHIA 8. We find that constraining those parameters at O (1%- 10%) is required to avoid a Monte Carlo uncertainty on mt greater than 500 MeV. For the sake of achieving the needed accuracy on such parameters, we examine the sensitivity of the top-quark mass measured from spectral features, such as peaks, endpoints and distributions of EB, mBℓ, and some mT2-like variables. We find that restricting oneself to regions sufficiently close to the endpoints enables one to substantially decrease the dependence on the Monte Carlo parameters, but at the price of inflating significantly the statistical uncertainties. To ameliorate this situation we study how well the data on top-quark production and decay at the LHC can be utilized to constrain the showering and hadronization variables. We find that a global exploration of several calibration observables, sensitive to the Monte Carlo parameters but very mildly to mt, can offer useful constraints on the parameters, as long as such quantities are measured with a 1% precision.

Uncertainties of size measurements in electron microscopy characterization of nanomaterials in foods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dudkiewicz, Agnieszka; Boxall, Alistair B. A.; Chaudhry, Qasim

2015-01-01

Electron microscopy is a recognized standard tool for nanomaterial characterization, and recommended by the European Food Safety Authority for the size measurement of nanomaterials in food. Despite this, little data have been published assessing the reliability of the method, especially for size...... measurement of nanomaterials characterized by a broad size distribution and/or added to food matrices. This study is a thorough investigation of the measurement uncertainty when applying electron microscopy for size measurement of engineered nanomaterials in foods. Our results show that the number of measured...

Estimating the Uncertainty of Tensile Strength Measurement for A Photocured Material Produced by Additive Manufacturing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adamczak Stanisław

2014-08-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study was to estimate the measurement uncertainty for a material produced by additive manufacturing. The material investigated was FullCure 720 photocured resin, which was applied to fabricate tensile specimens with a Connex 350 3D printer based on PolyJet technology. The tensile strength of the specimens established through static tensile testing was used to determine the measurement uncertainty. There is a need for extensive research into the performance of model materials obtained via 3D printing as they have not been studied sufficiently like metal alloys or plastics, the most common structural materials. In this analysis, the measurement uncertainty was estimated using a larger number of samples than usual, i.e., thirty instead of typical ten. The results can be very useful to engineers who design models and finished products using this material. The investigations also show how wide the scatter of results is.

Uncertainty characterization of particle depth measurement using digital in-line holography and the hybrid method.

Science.gov (United States)

Gao, Jian; Guildenbecher, Daniel R; Reu, Phillip L; Chen, Jun

2013-11-04

In the detection of particles using digital in-line holography, measurement accuracy is substantially influenced by the hologram processing method. In particular, a number of methods have been proposed to determine the out-of-plane particle depth (z location). However, due to the lack of consistent uncertainty characterization, it has been unclear which method is best suited to a given measurement problem. In this work, depth determination accuracies of seven particle detection methods, including a recently proposed hybrid method, are systematically investigated in terms of relative depth measurement errors and uncertainties. Both synthetic and experimental holograms of particle fields are considered at conditions relevant to particle sizing and tracking. While all methods display a range of particle conditions where they are most accurate, in general the hybrid method is shown to be the most robust with depth uncertainty less than twice the particle diameter over a wide range of particle field conditions.

Assessment of uncertainty associated with measuring exposure to radon and decay products in the French uranium miners cohort

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allodji, Rodrigue S; Leuraud, Klervi; Laurier, Dominique; Bernhard, Sylvain; Henry, Stéphane; Bénichou, Jacques

2012-01-01

The reliability of exposure data directly affects the reliability of the risk estimates derived from epidemiological studies. Measurement uncertainty must be known and understood before it can be corrected. The literature on occupational exposure to radon ( 222 Rn) and its decay products reveals only a few epidemiological studies in which uncertainty has been accounted for explicitly. This work examined the sources, nature, distribution and magnitude of uncertainty of the exposure of French uranium miners to radon ( 222 Rn) and its decay products. We estimated the total size of uncertainty for this exposure with the root sum square (RSS) method, which may be an alternative when repeated measures are not available. As a result, we identified six main sources of uncertainty. The total size of the uncertainty decreased from about 47% in the period 1956–1974 to 10% after 1982, illustrating the improvement in the radiological monitoring system over time.

NanoCMM : a 3D coordinate measuring machine with low moving mass for measuring small products in array with nanometer uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Seggelen, van J.K.

2007-01-01

To measure dimensions and shape of complex three dimensional products (e.g. engines, mouldings, etc) with low uncertainty, Coordinate Measuring Machines (CMMs) are adequate instruments due to their universal applicability, easy measurement set-up and measuring flexibility. Motion software is

Regional inversion of CO2 ecosystem fluxes from atmospheric measurements. Reliability of the uncertainty estimates

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Broquet, G.; Chevallier, F.; Breon, F.M.; Yver, C.; Ciais, P.; Ramonet, M.; Schmidt, M. [Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l' Environnement, CEA-CNRS-UVSQ, UMR8212, IPSL, Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Alemanno, M. [Servizio Meteorologico dell' Aeronautica Militare Italiana, Centro Aeronautica Militare di Montagna, Monte Cimone/Sestola (Italy); Apadula, F. [Research on Energy Systems, RSE, Environment and Sustainable Development Department, Milano (Italy); Hammer, S. [Universitaet Heidelberg, Institut fuer Umweltphysik, Heidelberg (Germany); Haszpra, L. [Hungarian Meteorological Service, Budapest (Hungary); Meinhardt, F. [Federal Environmental Agency, Kirchzarten (Germany); Necki, J. [AGH University of Science and Technology, Krakow (Poland); Piacentino, S. [ENEA, Laboratory for Earth Observations and Analyses, Palermo (Italy); Thompson, R.L. [Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry, Jena (Germany); Vermeulen, A.T. [Energy research Centre of the Netherlands ECN, EEE-EA, Petten (Netherlands)

2013-07-01

The Bayesian framework of CO2 flux inversions permits estimates of the retrieved flux uncertainties. Here, the reliability of these theoretical estimates is studied through a comparison against the misfits between the inverted fluxes and independent measurements of the CO2 Net Ecosystem Exchange (NEE) made by the eddy covariance technique at local (few hectares) scale. Regional inversions at 0.5{sup 0} resolution are applied for the western European domain where {approx}50 eddy covariance sites are operated. These inversions are conducted for the period 2002-2007. They use a mesoscale atmospheric transport model, a prior estimate of the NEE from a terrestrial ecosystem model and rely on the variational assimilation of in situ continuous measurements of CO2 atmospheric mole fractions. Averaged over monthly periods and over the whole domain, the misfits are in good agreement with the theoretical uncertainties for prior and inverted NEE, and pass the chi-square test for the variance at the 30% and 5% significance levels respectively, despite the scale mismatch and the independence between the prior (respectively inverted) NEE and the flux measurements. The theoretical uncertainty reduction for the monthly NEE at the measurement sites is 53% while the inversion decreases the standard deviation of the misfits by 38 %. These results build confidence in the NEE estimates at the European/monthly scales and in their theoretical uncertainty from the regional inverse modelling system. However, the uncertainties at the monthly (respectively annual) scale remain larger than the amplitude of the inter-annual variability of monthly (respectively annual) fluxes, so that this study does not engender confidence in the inter-annual variations. The uncertainties at the monthly scale are significantly smaller than the seasonal variations. The seasonal cycle of the inverted fluxes is thus reliable. In particular, the CO2 sink period over the European continent likely ends later than

Pharmacological Fingerprints of Contextual Uncertainty.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louise Marshall

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Successful interaction with the environment requires flexible updating of our beliefs about the world. By estimating the likelihood of future events, it is possible to prepare appropriate actions in advance and execute fast, accurate motor responses. According to theoretical proposals, agents track the variability arising from changing environments by computing various forms of uncertainty. Several neuromodulators have been linked to uncertainty signalling, but comprehensive empirical characterisation of their relative contributions to perceptual belief updating, and to the selection of motor responses, is lacking. Here we assess the roles of noradrenaline, acetylcholine, and dopamine within a single, unified computational framework of uncertainty. Using pharmacological interventions in a sample of 128 healthy human volunteers and a hierarchical Bayesian learning model, we characterise the influences of noradrenergic, cholinergic, and dopaminergic receptor antagonism on individual computations of uncertainty during a probabilistic serial reaction time task. We propose that noradrenaline influences learning of uncertain events arising from unexpected changes in the environment. In contrast, acetylcholine balances attribution of uncertainty to chance fluctuations within an environmental context, defined by a stable set of probabilistic associations, or to gross environmental violations following a contextual switch. Dopamine supports the use of uncertainty representations to engender fast, adaptive responses.

Sources and performance criteria of uncertainty of reference measurement procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

Mosca, Andrea; Paleari, Renata

2018-05-29

This article wants to focus on the today available Reference Measurement Procedures (RMPs) for the determination of various analytes in Laboratory Medicine and the possible tools to evaluate their performance in the laboratories who are currently using them. A brief review on the RMPs has been performed by investigating the Joint Committee for Traceability in Laboratory Medicine (JCTLM) database. In order to evaluate their performances, we have checked the organization of three international ring trials, i.e. those regularly performed by the IFCC External Quality assessment scheme for Reference Laboratories in Laboratory Medicine (RELA), by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) cholesterol network and by the IFCC Network for HbA 1c . Several RMPs are available through the JCTLM database, but the best way to collect information about the RMPs and their uncertainties is to look at the reference measurement service providers (RMS). This part of the database and the background on how to listed in the database is very helpful for the assessment of expanded uncertainty (MU) and performance in general of RMPs. Worldwide, 17 RMS are listed in the database, and for most of the measurands more than one RMS is able to run the relative RMPs, with similar expanded uncertainties. As an example, for a-amylase, 4 SP offer their services with MU between 1.6 and 3.3%. In other cases (such as total cholesterol, the U may span over a broader range, i.e. from 0.02 to 3.6%). With regard to the performance evaluation, the approach is often heterogenous, and it is difficult to compare the performance of laboratories running the same RMP for the same measurand if involved in more than one EQAS. The reference measurement services have been created to help laboratory professionals and manufacturers to implement the correct metrological traceability, and the JCTLM database is the only correct way to retrieve all the necessary important information to this end. Copyright © 2018

Measurement-based climatology of aerosol direct radiative effect, its sensitivities, and uncertainties from a background southeast US site

Science.gov (United States)

Sherman, James P.; McComiskey, Allison

2018-03-01

Aerosol optical properties measured at Appalachian State University's co-located NASA AERONET and NOAA ESRL aerosol network monitoring sites over a nearly four-year period (June 2012-Feb 2016) are used, along with satellite-based surface reflectance measurements, to study the seasonal variability of diurnally averaged clear sky aerosol direct radiative effect (DRE) and radiative efficiency (RE) at the top-of-atmosphere (TOA) and at the surface. Aerosol chemistry and loading at the Appalachian State site are likely representative of the background southeast US (SE US), home to high summertime aerosol loading and one of only a few regions not to have warmed during the 20th century. This study is the first multi-year ground truth DRE study in the SE US, using aerosol network data products that are often used to validate satellite-based aerosol retrievals. The study is also the first in the SE US to quantify DRE uncertainties and sensitivities to aerosol optical properties and surface reflectance, including their seasonal dependence.Median DRE for the study period is -2.9 W m-2 at the TOA and -6.1 W m-2 at the surface. Monthly median and monthly mean DRE at the TOA (surface) are -1 to -2 W m-2 (-2 to -3 W m-2) during winter months and -5 to -6 W m-2 (-10 W m-2) during summer months. The DRE cycles follow the annual cycle of aerosol optical depth (AOD), which is 9 to 10 times larger in summer than in winter. Aerosol RE is anti-correlated with DRE, with winter values 1.5 to 2 times more negative than summer values. Due to the large seasonal dependence of aerosol DRE and RE, we quantify the sensitivity of DRE to aerosol optical properties and surface reflectance, using a calendar day representative of each season (21 December for winter; 21 March for spring, 21 June for summer, and 21 September for fall). We use these sensitivities along with measurement uncertainties of aerosol optical properties and surface reflectance to calculate DRE uncertainties. We also estimate

Measurement uncertainties in science and technology

CERN Document Server

Grabe, Michael

2014-01-01

This book recasts the classical Gaussian error calculus from scratch, the inducements concerning both random and unknown systematic errors. The idea of this book is to create a formalism being fit to localize the true values of physical quantities considered – true with respect to the set of predefined physical units. Remarkably enough, the prevailingly practiced forms of error calculus do not feature this property which however proves in every respect, to be physically indispensable. The amended formalism, termed Generalized Gaussian Error Calculus by the author, treats unknown systematic errors as biases and brings random errors to bear via enhanced confidence intervals as laid down by students. The significantly extended second edition thoroughly restructures and systematizes the text as a whole and illustrates the formalism by numerous numerical examples. They demonstrate the basic principles of how to understand uncertainties to localize the true values of measured values - a perspective decisive in vi...

Uncertainty Estimate in Resources Assessment: A Geostatistical Contribution

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Souza, Luis Eduardo de; Costa, Joao Felipe C. L.; Koppe, Jair C.

2004-01-01

For many decades the mining industry regarded resources/reserves estimation and classification as a mere calculation requiring basic mathematical and geological knowledge. Most methods were based on geometrical procedures and spatial data distribution. Therefore, uncertainty associated with tonnages and grades either were ignored or mishandled, although various mining codes require a measure of confidence in the values reported. Traditional methods fail in reporting the level of confidence in the quantities and grades. Conversely, kriging is known to provide the best estimate and its associated variance. Among kriging methods, Ordinary Kriging (OK) probably is the most widely used one for mineral resource/reserve estimation, mainly because of its robustness and its facility in uncertainty assessment by using the kriging variance. It also is known that OK variance is unable to recognize local data variability, an important issue when heterogeneous mineral deposits with higher and poorer grade zones are being evaluated. Alternatively, stochastic simulation are used to build local or global uncertainty about a geological attribute respecting its statistical moments. This study investigates methods capable of incorporating uncertainty to the estimates of resources and reserves via OK and sequential gaussian and sequential indicator simulation The results showed that for the type of mineralization studied all methods classified the tonnages similarly. The methods are illustrated using an exploration drill hole data sets from a large Brazilian coal deposit

Incentive salience attribution under reward uncertainty: A Pavlovian model.

Science.gov (United States)

Anselme, Patrick

2015-02-01

There is a vast literature on the behavioural effects of partial reinforcement in Pavlovian conditioning. Compared with animals receiving continuous reinforcement, partially rewarded animals typically show (a) a slower development of the conditioned response (CR) early in training and (b) a higher asymptotic level of the CR later in training. This phenomenon is known as the partial reinforcement acquisition effect (PRAE). Learning models of Pavlovian conditioning fail to account for it. In accordance with the incentive salience hypothesis, it is here argued that incentive motivation (or 'wanting') plays a more direct role in controlling behaviour than does learning, and reward uncertainty is shown to have an excitatory effect on incentive motivation. The psychological origin of that effect is discussed and a computational model integrating this new interpretation is developed. Many features of CRs under partial reinforcement emerge from this model. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Estimation of uncertainty bounds for individual particle image velocimetry measurements from cross-correlation peak ratio

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Charonko, John J; Vlachos, Pavlos P

2013-01-01

Numerous studies have established firmly that particle image velocimetry (PIV) is a robust method for non-invasive, quantitative measurements of fluid velocity, and that when carefully conducted, typical measurements can accurately detect displacements in digital images with a resolution well below a single pixel (in some cases well below a hundredth of a pixel). However, to date, these estimates have only been able to provide guidance on the expected error for an average measurement under specific image quality and flow conditions. This paper demonstrates a new method for estimating the uncertainty bounds to within a given confidence interval for a specific, individual measurement. Here, cross-correlation peak ratio, the ratio of primary to secondary peak height, is shown to correlate strongly with the range of observed error values for a given measurement, regardless of flow condition or image quality. This relationship is significantly stronger for phase-only generalized cross-correlation PIV processing, while the standard correlation approach showed weaker performance. Using an analytical model of the relationship derived from synthetic data sets, the uncertainty bounds at a 95% confidence interval are then computed for several artificial and experimental flow fields, and the resulting errors are shown to match closely to the predicted uncertainties. While this method stops short of being able to predict the true error for a given measurement, knowledge of the uncertainty level for a PIV experiment should provide great benefits when applying the results of PIV analysis to engineering design studies and computational fluid dynamics validation efforts. Moreover, this approach is exceptionally simple to implement and requires negligible additional computational cost. (paper)

Modelling ecosystem service flows under uncertainty with stochiastic SPAN

Science.gov (United States)

Johnson, Gary W.; Snapp, Robert R.; Villa, Ferdinando; Bagstad, Kenneth J.

2012-01-01

Ecosystem service models are increasingly in demand for decision making. However, the data required to run these models are often patchy, missing, outdated, or untrustworthy. Further, communication of data and model uncertainty to decision makers is often either absent or unintuitive. In this work, we introduce a systematic approach to addressing both the data gap and the difficulty in communicating uncertainty through a stochastic adaptation of the Service Path Attribution Networks (SPAN) framework. The SPAN formalism assesses ecosystem services through a set of up to 16 maps, which characterize the services in a study area in terms of flow pathways between ecosystems and human beneficiaries. Although the SPAN algorithms were originally defined deterministically, we present them here in a stochastic framework which combines probabilistic input data with a stochastic transport model in order to generate probabilistic spatial outputs. This enables a novel feature among ecosystem service models: the ability to spatially visualize uncertainty in the model results. The stochastic SPAN model can analyze areas where data limitations are prohibitive for deterministic models. Greater uncertainty in the model inputs (including missing data) should lead to greater uncertainty expressed in the model’s output distributions. By using Bayesian belief networks to fill data gaps and expert-provided trust assignments to augment untrustworthy or outdated information, we can account for uncertainty in input data, producing a model that is still able to run and provide information where strictly deterministic models could not. Taken together, these attributes enable more robust and intuitive modelling of ecosystem services under uncertainty.

Uncertainty budgets for liquid waveguide CDOM absorption measurements.

Science.gov (United States)

Lefering, Ina; Röttgers, Rüdiger; Utschig, Christian; McKee, David

2017-08-01

Long path length liquid waveguide capillary cell (LWCC) systems using simple spectrometers to determine the spectral absorption by colored dissolved organic matter (CDOM) have previously been shown to have better measurement sensitivity compared to high-end spectrophotometers using 10 cm cuvettes. Information on the magnitude of measurement uncertainties for LWCC systems, however, has remained scarce. Cross-comparison of three different LWCC systems with three different path lengths (50, 100, and 250 cm) and two different cladding materials enabled quantification of measurement precision and accuracy, revealing strong wavelength dependency in both parameters. Stable pumping of the sample through the capillary cell was found to improve measurement precision over measurements made with the sample kept stationary. Results from the 50 and 100 cm LWCC systems, with higher refractive index cladding, showed systematic artifacts including small but unphysical negative offsets and high-frequency spectral perturbations due to limited performance of the salinity correction. In comparison, the newer 250 cm LWCC with lower refractive index cladding returned small positive offsets that may be physically correct. After null correction of measurements at 700 nm, overall agreement of CDOM absorption data at 440 nm was found to be within 5% root mean square percentage error.

Uncertainty Evaluation of the New Setup for Measurement of Water-Vapor Permeation Rate by a Dew-Point Sensor

Science.gov (United States)

Hudoklin, D.; Šetina, J.; Drnovšek, J.

2012-09-01

The measurement of the water-vapor permeation rate (WVPR) through materials is very important in many industrial applications such as the development of new fabrics and construction materials, in the semiconductor industry, packaging, vacuum techniques, etc. The demand for this kind of measurement grows considerably and thus many different methods for measuring the WVPR are developed and standardized within numerous national and international standards. However, comparison of existing methods shows a low level of mutual agreement. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the necessary uncertainty evaluation for WVPR measurements, so as to provide a basis for development of a corresponding reference measurement standard. This paper presents a specially developed measurement setup, which employs a precision dew-point sensor for WVPR measurements on specimens of different shapes. The paper also presents a physical model, which tries to account for both dynamic and quasi-static methods, the common types of WVPR measurements referred to in standards and scientific publications. An uncertainty evaluation carried out according to the ISO/IEC guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement (GUM) shows the relative expanded ( k = 2) uncertainty to be 3.0 % for WVPR of 6.71 mg . h-1 (corresponding to permeance of 30.4 mg . m-2. day-1 . hPa-1).

Proficiency testing as a basis for estimating uncertainty of measurement: application to forensic alcohol and toxicology quantitations.

Science.gov (United States)

Wallace, Jack

2010-05-01

While forensic laboratories will soon be required to estimate uncertainties of measurement for those quantitations reported to the end users of the information, the procedures for estimating this have been little discussed in the forensic literature. This article illustrates how proficiency test results provide the basis for estimating uncertainties in three instances: (i) For breath alcohol analyzers the interlaboratory precision is taken as a direct measure of uncertainty. This approach applies when the number of proficiency tests is small. (ii) For blood alcohol, the uncertainty is calculated from the differences between the laboratory's proficiency testing results and the mean quantitations determined by the participants; this approach applies when the laboratory has participated in a large number of tests. (iii) For toxicology, either of these approaches is useful for estimating comparability between laboratories, but not for estimating absolute accuracy. It is seen that data from proficiency tests enable estimates of uncertainty that are empirical, simple, thorough, and applicable to a wide range of concentrations.

Particle Swarm Imaging (PSIM). A swarming algorithm for the reporting of robust, optimal measurement uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Parvin, Dan; Clarke, Sean

2015-01-01

Particle Swarm Imaging (PSIM) overcomes some of the challenges associated with the accurate declaration of measurement uncertainties of radionuclide inventories within waste items when the distribution of activity is unknown. Implementation requires minimal equipment, making use of gamma‑ray measurements taken from different locations around the waste item, using only a single electrically cooled HRGS gamma‑ray detector for objects up to a UK ISO freight container in size. The PSIM technique is a computational method that iteratively ‘homes‑in’ on the true location of activity concentrations in waste items. PSIM differs from conventional assay techniques by allowing only viable solutions - that is those that could actually give rise to the measured data - to be considered. Thus PSIM avoids the drawback of conventional analyses, namely, the adoption of unrealistic assumptions about the activity distribution that inevitably leads to the declaration of pessimistic (and in some cases optimistic) activity estimates and uncertainties. PSIM applies an optimisation technique based upon ‘particle swarming’ methods to determine a set of candidate solutions within a ‘search space’ defined by the interior volume of a waste item. The positions and activities of the swarm are used in conjunction with a mathematical model to simulate the measurement response for the current swarm location. The swarm is iteratively updated (with modified positions and activities) until a match with sufficient quality is obtained between the simulated and actual measurement data. This process is repeated to build up a distribution of candidate solutions, which is subsequently analysed to calculate a measurement result and uncertainty along with a visual image of the activity distribution. The application of ‘swarming’ computational methods to non‑destructive assay (NDA) measurements is considered novel and this paper is intended to introduce the PSIM concept and provide

Uncertainty estimation and multi sensor fusion for kinematic laser tracker measurements

Science.gov (United States)

Ulrich, Thomas

2013-08-01

Laser trackers are widely used to measure kinematic tasks such as tracking robot movements. Common methods to evaluate the uncertainty in the kinematic measurement include approximations specified by the manufacturers, various analytical adjustment methods and the Kalman filter. In this paper a new, real-time technique is proposed, which estimates the 4D-path (3D-position + time) uncertainty of an arbitrary path in space. Here a hybrid system estimator is applied in conjunction with the kinematic measurement model. This method can be applied to processes, which include various types of kinematic behaviour, constant velocity, variable acceleration or variable turn rates. The new approach is compared with the Kalman filter and a manufacturer's approximations. The comparison was made using data obtained by tracking an industrial robot's tool centre point with a Leica laser tracker AT901 and a Leica laser tracker LTD500. It shows that the new approach is more appropriate to analysing kinematic processes than the Kalman filter, as it reduces overshoots and decreases the estimated variance. In comparison with the manufacturer's approximations, the new approach takes account of kinematic behaviour with an improved description of the real measurement process and a reduction in estimated variance. This approach is therefore well suited to the analysis of kinematic processes with unknown changes in kinematic behaviour as well as the fusion among laser trackers.

Partitioning and mapping uncertainties in ensembles of forecasts of species turnover under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diniz-Filho, José Alexandre F.; Bini, Luis Mauricio; Rangel, Thiago Fernando

2009-01-01

Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources of uncer......Forecasts of species range shifts under climate change are fraught with uncertainties and ensemble forecasting may provide a framework to deal with such uncertainties. Here, a novel approach to partition the variance among modeled attributes, such as richness or turnover, and map sources...... of uncertainty in ensembles of forecasts is presented. We model the distributions of 3837 New World birds and project them into 2080. We then quantify and map the relative contribution of different sources of uncertainty from alternative methods for niche modeling, general circulation models (AOGCM......), and emission scenarios. The greatest source of uncertainty in forecasts of species range shifts arises from using alternative methods for niche modeling, followed by AOGCM, and their interaction. Our results concur with previous studies that discovered that projections from alternative models can be extremely...

Simplified propagation of standard uncertainties

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shull, A.H.

1997-01-01

An essential part of any measurement control program is adequate knowledge of the uncertainties of the measurement system standards. Only with an estimate of the standards'' uncertainties can one determine if the standard is adequate for its intended use or can one calculate the total uncertainty of the measurement process. Purchased standards usually have estimates of uncertainty on their certificates. However, when standards are prepared and characterized by a laboratory, variance propagation is required to estimate the uncertainty of the standard. Traditional variance propagation typically involves tedious use of partial derivatives, unfriendly software and the availability of statistical expertise. As a result, the uncertainty of prepared standards is often not determined or determined incorrectly. For situations meeting stated assumptions, easier shortcut methods of estimation are now available which eliminate the need for partial derivatives and require only a spreadsheet or calculator. A system of simplifying the calculations by dividing into subgroups of absolute and relative uncertainties is utilized. These methods also incorporate the International Standards Organization (ISO) concepts for combining systematic and random uncertainties as published in their Guide to the Expression of Measurement Uncertainty. Details of the simplified methods and examples of their use are included in the paper

Uncertainty Reduction Via Parameter Design of A Fast Digital Integrator for Magnetic Field Measurement

CERN Document Server

Arpaia, P; Lucariello, G; Spiezia, G

2007-01-01

At European Centre of Nuclear Research (CERN), within the new Large Hadron Collider (LHC) project, measurements of magnetic flux with uncertainty of 10 ppm at a few of decades of Hz for several minutes are required. With this aim, a new Fast Digital Integrator (FDI) has been developed in cooperation with University of Sannio, Italy [1]. This paper deals with the final design tuning for achieving target uncertainty by means of experimental statistical parameter design.

A measure of uncertainty regarding the interval constraint of normal mean elicited by two stages of a prior hierarchy.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, Hea-Jung

2014-01-01

This paper considers a hierarchical screened Gaussian model (HSGM) for Bayesian inference of normal models when an interval constraint in the mean parameter space needs to be incorporated in the modeling but when such a restriction is uncertain. An objective measure of the uncertainty, regarding the interval constraint, accounted for by using the HSGM is proposed for the Bayesian inference. For this purpose, we drive a maximum entropy prior of the normal mean, eliciting the uncertainty regarding the interval constraint, and then obtain the uncertainty measure by considering the relationship between the maximum entropy prior and the marginal prior of the normal mean in HSGM. Bayesian estimation procedure of HSGM is developed and two numerical illustrations pertaining to the properties of the uncertainty measure are provided.

Advanced Concepts in Fuzzy Logic and Systems with Membership Uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Starczewski, Janusz T

2013-01-01

This book generalizes fuzzy logic systems for different types of uncertainty, including - semantic ambiguity resulting from limited perception or lack of knowledge about exact membership functions - lack of attributes or granularity arising from discretization of real data - imprecise description of membership functions - vagueness perceived as fuzzification of conditional attributes. Consequently, the membership uncertainty can be modeled by combining methods of conventional and type-2 fuzzy logic, rough set theory and possibility theory.            In particular, this book provides a number of formulae for implementing the operation extended on fuzzy-valued fuzzy sets and presents some basic structures of generalized uncertain fuzzy logic systems, as well as introduces several of methods to generate fuzzy membership uncertainty. It is desirable as a reference book for under-graduates in higher education, master and doctor graduates in the courses of computer science, computational intelligence, or...

TRACEABILITY OF PRECISION MEASUREMENTS ON COORDINATE MEASURING MACHINES – UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT BY USING CALIBRATED WORPIECES ON CMMs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Tosello, Guido; De Chiffre, Leonardo

This document is used in connection with one exercise 30 minutes duration as a part of the course VISION ONLINE – One week course on Precision & Nanometrology. The exercise concerns establishment of traceability of precision measurements on coordinate measuring machines. This document contains...... a short description of each step in the exercise, the uncertainty budget as described in the ISO/TS 15530 part 3 and tables from the excel spreadsheets....

Single hadron response measurement and calorimeter jet energy scale uncertainty with the ATLAS detector at the LHC

CERN Document Server

Aad, Georges; Abdallah, Jalal; Abdelalim, Ahmed Ali; Abdesselam, Abdelouahab; Abdinov, Ovsat; Abi, Babak; Abolins, Maris; AbouZeid, Ossama; Abramowicz, Halina; Abreu, Henso; Acerbi, Emilio; Acharya, Bobby Samir; Adamczyk, Leszek; Adams, David; Addy, Tetteh; Adelman, Jahred; Aderholz, Michael; Adomeit, Stefanie; Adragna, Paolo; Adye, Tim; Aefsky, Scott; Aguilar-Saavedra, Juan Antonio; Aharrouche, Mohamed; Ahlen, Steven; Ahles, Florian; Ahmad, Ashfaq; Ahsan, Mahsana; Aielli, Giulio; Akdogan, Taylan; Åkesson, Torsten Paul Ake; Akimoto, Ginga; Akimov, Andrei; Akiyama, Kunihiro; Alam, Mohammad; Alam, Muhammad Aftab; Albert, Justin; Albrand, Solveig; Aleksa, Martin; Aleksandrov, Igor; Alessandria, Franco; Alexa, Calin; Alexander, Gideon; Alexandre, Gauthier; Alexopoulos, Theodoros; Alhroob, Muhammad; Aliev, Malik; Alimonti, Gianluca; Alison, John; Aliyev, Magsud; Allbrooke, Benedict; Allport, Phillip; Allwood-Spiers, Sarah; Almond, John; Aloisio, Alberto; Alon, Raz; Alonso, Alejandro; Alvarez Gonzalez, Barbara; Alviggi, Mariagrazia; Amako, Katsuya; Amaral, Pedro; Amelung, Christoph; Ammosov, Vladimir; Amorim, Antonio; Amorós, Gabriel; Amram, Nir; Anastopoulos, Christos; Ancu, Lucian Stefan; Andari, Nansi; Andeen, Timothy; Anders, Christoph Falk; Anders, Gabriel; Anderson, Kelby; Andreazza, Attilio; Andrei, George Victor; Andrieux, Marie-Laure; Anduaga, Xabier; Angerami, Aaron; Anghinolfi, Francis; Anisenkov, Alexey; Anjos, Nuno; Annovi, Alberto; Antonaki, Ariadni; Antonelli, Mario; Antonov, Alexey; Antos, Jaroslav; Anulli, Fabio; Aoun, Sahar; Aperio Bella, Ludovica; Apolle, Rudi; Arabidze, Giorgi; Aracena, Ignacio; Arai, Yasuo; Arce, Ayana; Arfaoui, Samir; Arguin, Jean-Francois; Arik, Engin; Arik, Metin; Armbruster, Aaron James; Arnaez, Olivier; Arnault, Christian; Artamonov, Andrei; Artoni, Giacomo; Arutinov, David; Asai, Shoji; Asfandiyarov, Ruslan; Ask, Stefan; Åsman, Barbro; Asquith, Lily; Assamagan, Ketevi; Astbury, Alan; Astvatsatourov, Anatoli; Aubert, Bernard; Auge, Etienne; Augsten, Kamil; Aurousseau, Mathieu; Avolio, Giuseppe; Avramidou, Rachel Maria; Axen, David; Ay, Cano; Azuelos, Georges; Azuma, Yuya; Baak, Max; Baccaglioni, Giuseppe; Bacci, Cesare; Bach, Andre; Bachacou, Henri; Bachas, Konstantinos; Backes, Moritz; Backhaus, Malte; Badescu, Elisabeta; Bagnaia, Paolo; Bahinipati, Seema; Bai, Yu; Bailey, David; Bain, Travis; Baines, John; Baker, Oliver Keith; Baker, Mark; Baker, Sarah; Banas, Elzbieta; Banerjee, Piyali; Banerjee, Swagato; Banfi, Danilo; Bangert, Andrea Michelle; Bansal, Vikas; Bansil, Hardeep Singh; Barak, Liron; Baranov, Sergei; Barashkou, Andrei; Barbaro Galtieri, Angela; Barber, Tom; Barberio, Elisabetta Luigia; Barberis, Dario; Barbero, Marlon; Bardin, Dmitri; Barillari, Teresa; Barisonzi, Marcello; Barklow, Timothy; Barlow, Nick; Barnett, Bruce; Barnett, Michael; Baroncelli, Antonio; Barone, Gaetano; Barr, Alan; Barreiro, Fernando; Barreiro Guimarães da Costa, João; Barrillon, Pierre; Bartoldus, Rainer; Barton, Adam Edward; Bartsch, Valeria; Bates, Richard; Batkova, Lucia; Batley, Richard; Battaglia, Andreas; Battistin, Michele; Bauer, Florian; Bawa, Harinder Singh; Beale, Steven; Beau, Tristan; Beauchemin, Pierre-Hugues; Beccherle, Roberto; Bechtle, Philip; Beck, Hans Peter; Becker, Sebastian; Beckingham, Matthew; Becks, Karl-Heinz; Beddall, Andrew; Beddall, Ayda; Bedikian, Sourpouhi; Bednyakov, Vadim; Bee, Christopher; Begel, Michael; Behar Harpaz, Silvia; Behera, Prafulla; Beimforde, Michael; Belanger-Champagne, Camille; Bell, Paul; Bell, William; Bella, Gideon; Bellagamba, Lorenzo; Bellina, Francesco; Bellomo, Massimiliano; Belloni, Alberto; Beloborodova, Olga; Belotskiy, Konstantin; Beltramello, Olga; Ben Ami, Sagi; Benary, Odette; Benchekroun, Driss; Benchouk, Chafik; Bendel, Markus; Benekos, Nektarios; Benhammou, Yan; Benhar Noccioli, Eleonora; Benitez Garcia, Jorge-Armando; Benjamin, Douglas; Benoit, Mathieu; Bensinger, James; Benslama, Kamal; Bentvelsen, Stan; Berge, David; Bergeaas Kuutmann, Elin; Berger, Nicolas; Berghaus, Frank; Berglund, Elina; Beringer, Jürg; Bernat, Pauline; Bernhard, Ralf; Bernius, Catrin; Berry, Tracey; Bertella, Claudia; Bertin, Antonio; Bertinelli, Francesco; Bertolucci, Federico; Besana, Maria Ilaria; Besson, Nathalie; Bethke, Siegfried; Bhimji, Wahid; Bianchi, Riccardo-Maria; Bianco, Michele; Biebel, Otmar; Bieniek, Stephen Paul; Bierwagen, Katharina; Biesiada, Jed; Biglietti, Michela; Bilokon, Halina; Bindi, Marcello; Binet, Sebastien; Bingul, Ahmet; Bini, Cesare; Biscarat, Catherine; Bitenc, Urban; Black, Kevin; Blair, Robert; Blanchard, Jean-Baptiste; Blanchot, Georges; Blazek, Tomas; Blocker, Craig; Blocki, Jacek; Blondel, Alain; Blum, Walter; Blumenschein, Ulrike; Bobbink, Gerjan; Bobrovnikov, Victor; Bocchetta, Simona Serena; Bocci, Andrea; Boddy, Christopher Richard; Boehler, Michael; Boek, Jennifer; Boelaert, Nele; Bogaerts, Joannes Andreas; Bogdanchikov, Alexander; Bogouch, Andrei; Bohm, Christian; Boisvert, Veronique; Bold, Tomasz; Boldea, Venera; Bolnet, Nayanka Myriam; Bona, Marcella; Bondarenko, Valery; Bondioli, Mario; Boonekamp, Maarten; Booth, Chris; Bordoni, Stefania; Borer, Claudia; Borisov, Anatoly; Borissov, Guennadi; Borjanovic, Iris; Borri, Marcello; Borroni, Sara; Bortolotto, Valerio; Bos, Kors; Boscherini, Davide; Bosman, Martine; Boterenbrood, Hendrik; Botterill, David; Bouchami, Jihene; Boudreau, Joseph; Bouhova-Thacker, Evelina Vassileva; Boumediene, Djamel Eddine; Bourdarios, Claire; Bousson, Nicolas; Boveia, Antonio; Boyd, James; Boyko, Igor; Bozhko, Nikolay; Bozovic-Jelisavcic, Ivanka; Bracinik, Juraj; Braem, André; Branchini, Paolo; Brandenburg, George; Brandt, Andrew; Brandt, Gerhard; Brandt, Oleg; Bratzler, Uwe; Brau, Benjamin; Brau, James; Braun, Helmut; Brelier, Bertrand; Bremer, Johan; Brenner, Richard; Bressler, Shikma; Britton, Dave; Brochu, Frederic; Brock, Ian; Brock, Raymond; Brodbeck, Timothy; Brodet, Eyal; Broggi, Francesco; Bromberg, Carl; Bronner, Johanna; Brooijmans, Gustaaf; Brooks, William; Brown, Gareth; Brown, Heather; Bruckman de Renstrom, Pawel; Bruncko, Dusan; Bruneliere, Renaud; Brunet, Sylvie; Bruni, Alessia; Bruni, Graziano; Bruschi, Marco; Buanes, Trygve; Buat, Quentin; Bucci, Francesca; Buchanan, James; Buchanan, Norman; Buchholz, Peter; Buckingham, Ryan; Buckley, Andrew; Buda, Stelian Ioan; Budagov, Ioulian; Budick, Burton; Büscher, Volker; Bugge, Lars; Bulekov, Oleg; Bunse, Moritz; Buran, Torleiv; Burckhart, Helfried; Burdin, Sergey; Burgard, Carsten Daniel; Burgess, Thomas; Burke, Stephen; Busato, Emmanuel; Bussey, Peter; Buszello, Claus-Peter; Butin, François; Butler, Bart; Butler, John; Buttar, Craig; Butterworth, Jonathan; Buttinger, William; Cabrera Urbán, Susana; Caforio, Davide; Cakir, Orhan; Calafiura, Paolo; Calderini, Giovanni; Calfayan, Philippe; Calkins, Robert; Caloba, Luiz; Caloi, Rita; Calvet, David; Calvet, Samuel; Camacho Toro, Reina; Camarri, Paolo; Cambiaghi, Mario; Cameron, David; Caminada, Lea Michaela; Campana, Simone; Campanelli, Mario; Canale, Vincenzo; Canelli, Florencia; Canepa, Anadi; Cantero, Josu; Capasso, Luciano; Capeans Garrido, Maria Del Mar; Caprini, Irinel; Caprini, Mihai; Capriotti, Daniele; Capua, Marcella; Caputo, Regina; Caramarcu, Costin; Cardarelli, Roberto; Carli, Tancredi; Carlino, Gianpaolo; Carminati, Leonardo; Caron, Bryan; Caron, Sascha; Carrillo Montoya, German D; Carter, Antony; Carter, Janet; Carvalho, João; Casadei, Diego; Casado, Maria Pilar; Cascella, Michele; Caso, Carlo; Castaneda Hernandez, Alfredo Martin; Castaneda-Miranda, Elizabeth; Castillo Gimenez, Victoria; Castro, Nuno Filipe; Cataldi, Gabriella; Cataneo, Fernando; Catinaccio, Andrea; Catmore, James; Cattai, Ariella; Cattani, Giordano; Caughron, Seth; Cauz, Diego; Cavalleri, Pietro; Cavalli, Donatella; Cavalli-Sforza, Matteo; Cavasinni, Vincenzo; Ceradini, Filippo; Santiago Cerqueira, Augusto; Cerri, Alessandro; Cerrito, Lucio; Cerutti, Fabio; Cetin, Serkant Ali; Cevenini, Francesco; Chafaq, Aziz; Chakraborty, Dhiman; Chan, Kevin; Chapleau, Bertrand; Chapman, John Derek; Chapman, John Wehrley; Chareyre, Eve; Charlton, Dave; Chavda, Vikash; Chavez Barajas, Carlos Alberto; Cheatham, Susan; Chekanov, Sergei; Chekulaev, Sergey; Chelkov, Gueorgui; Chelstowska, Magda Anna; Chen, Chunhui; Chen, Hucheng; Chen, Shenjian; Chen, Tingyang; Chen, Xin; Cheng, Shaochen; Cheplakov, Alexander; Chepurnov, Vladimir; Cherkaoui El Moursli, Rajaa; Chernyatin, Valeriy; Cheu, Elliott; Cheung, Sing-Leung; Chevalier, Laurent; Chiefari, Giovanni; Chikovani, Leila; Childers, John Taylor; Chilingarov, Alexandre; Chiodini, Gabriele; Chisholm, Andrew; Chizhov, Mihail; Choudalakis, Georgios; Chouridou, Sofia; Christidi, Illectra-Athanasia; Christov, Asen; Chromek-Burckhart, Doris; Chu, Ming-Lee; Chudoba, Jiri; Ciapetti, Guido; Ciba, Krzysztof; Ciftci, Abbas Kenan; Ciftci, Rena; Cinca, Diane; Cindro, Vladimir; Ciobotaru, Matei Dan; Ciocca, Claudia; Ciocio, Alessandra; Cirilli, Manuela; Citterio, Mauro; Ciubancan, Mihai; Clark, Allan G; Clark, Philip James; Cleland, Bill; Clemens, Jean-Claude; Clement, Benoit; Clement, Christophe; Clifft, Roger; Coadou, Yann; Cobal, Marina; Coccaro, Andrea; Cochran, James H; Coe, Paul; Cogan, Joshua Godfrey; Coggeshall, James; Cogneras, Eric; Colas, Jacques; Colijn, Auke-Pieter; Collard, Caroline; Collins, Neil; Collins-Tooth, Christopher; Collot, Johann; Colon, German; Conde Muiño, Patricia; Coniavitis, Elias; Conidi, Maria Chiara; Consonni, Michele; Consorti, Valerio; Constantinescu, Serban; Conta, Claudio; Conventi, Francesco; Cook, James; Cooke, Mark; Cooper, Ben; Cooper-Sarkar, Amanda; Copic, Katherine; Cornelissen, Thijs; Corradi, Massimo; Corriveau, Francois; Cortes-Gonzalez, Arely; Cortiana, Giorgio; Costa, Giuseppe; Costa, María José; Costanzo, Davide; Costin, Tudor; Côté, David; Coura Torres, Rodrigo; Courneyea, Lorraine; Cowan, Glen; Cowden, Christopher; Cox, Brian; Cranmer, Kyle; Crescioli, Francesco; Cristinziani, Markus; Crosetti, Giovanni; Crupi, Roberto; Crépé-Renaudin, Sabine; Cuciuc, Constantin-Mihai; Cuenca Almenar, Cristóbal; Cuhadar Donszelmann, Tulay; Curatolo, Maria; Curtis, Chris; Cuthbert, Cameron; Cwetanski, Peter; Czirr, Hendrik; Czodrowski, Patrick; Czyczula, Zofia; D'Auria, Saverio; D'Onofrio, Monica; D'Orazio, Alessia; Da Silva, Paulo Vitor; Da Via, Cinzia; Dabrowski, Wladyslaw; Dai, Tiesheng; Dallapiccola, Carlo; Dam, Mogens; Dameri, Mauro; Damiani, Daniel; Danielsson, Hans Olof; Dannheim, Dominik; Dao, Valerio; Darbo, Giovanni; Darlea, Georgiana Lavinia; Davey, Will; Davidek, Tomas; Davidson, Nadia; Davidson, Ruth; Davies, Eleanor; Davies, Merlin; Davison, Adam; Davygora, Yuriy; Dawe, Edmund; Dawson, Ian; Dawson, John; Daya, Rozmin; De, Kaushik; de Asmundis, Riccardo; De Castro, Stefano; De Castro Faria Salgado, Pedro; De Cecco, Sandro; de Graat, Julien; De Groot, Nicolo; de Jong, Paul; De La Taille, Christophe; De la Torre, Hector; De Lotto, Barbara; de Mora, Lee; De Nooij, Lucie; De Pedis, Daniele; De Salvo, Alessandro; De Sanctis, Umberto; De Santo, Antonella; De Vivie De Regie, Jean-Baptiste; Dean, Simon; Dearnaley, William James; Debbe, Ramiro; Debenedetti, Chiara; Dedovich, Dmitri; Degenhardt, James; Dehchar, Mohamed; Del Papa, Carlo; Del Peso, Jose; Del Prete, Tarcisio; Delemontex, Thomas; Deliyergiyev, Maksym; Dell'Acqua, Andrea; Dell'Asta, Lidia; Della Pietra, Massimo; della Volpe, Domenico; Delmastro, Marco; Delruelle, Nicolas; Delsart, Pierre-Antoine; Deluca, Carolina; Demers, Sarah; Demichev, Mikhail; Demirkoz, Bilge; Deng, Jianrong; Denisov, Sergey; Derendarz, Dominik; Derkaoui, Jamal Eddine; Derue, Frederic; Dervan, Paul; Desch, Klaus Kurt; Devetak, Erik; Deviveiros, Pier-Olivier; Dewhurst, Alastair; DeWilde, Burton; Dhaliwal, Saminder; Dhullipudi, Ramasudhakar; Di Ciaccio, Anna; Di Ciaccio, Lucia; Di Girolamo, Alessandro; Di Girolamo, Beniamino; Di Luise, Silvestro; Di Mattia, Alessandro; Di Micco, Biagio; Di Nardo, Roberto; Di Simone, Andrea; Di Sipio, Riccardo; Diaz, Marco Aurelio; Diblen, Faruk; Diehl, Edward; Dietrich, Janet; Dietzsch, Thorsten; Diglio, Sara; Dindar Yagci, Kamile; Dingfelder, Jochen; Dionisi, Carlo; Dita, Petre; Dita, Sanda; Dittus, Fridolin; Djama, Fares; Djobava, Tamar; Barros do Vale, Maria Aline; Do Valle Wemans, André; Doan, Thi Kieu Oanh; Dobbs, Matt; Dobinson, Robert; Dobos, Daniel; Dobson, Ellie; Dobson, Marc; Dodd, Jeremy; Doglioni, Caterina; Doherty, Tom; Doi, Yoshikuni; Dolejsi, Jiri; Dolenc, Irena; Dolezal, Zdenek; Dolgoshein, Boris; Dohmae, Takeshi; Donadelli, Marisilvia; Donega, Mauro; Donini, Julien; Dopke, Jens; Doria, Alessandra; Dos Anjos, Andre; Dosil, Mireia; Dotti, Andrea; Dova, Maria-Teresa; Dowell, John; Doxiadis, Alexander; Doyle, Tony; Drasal, Zbynek; Drees, Jürgen; Dressnandt, Nandor; Drevermann, Hans; Driouichi, Chafik; Dris, Manolis; Dubbert, Jörg; Dube, Sourabh; Duchovni, Ehud; Duckeck, Guenter; Dudarev, Alexey; Dudziak, Fanny; Dührssen, Michael; Duerdoth, Ian; Duflot, Laurent; Dufour, Marc-Andre; Dunford, Monica; Duran Yildiz, Hatice; Duxfield, Robert; Dwuznik, Michal; Dydak, Friedrich; Düren, Michael; Ebenstein, William; Ebke, Johannes; Eckweiler, Sebastian; Edmonds, Keith; Edwards, Clive; Edwards, Nicholas Charles; Ehrenfeld, Wolfgang; Ehrich, Thies; Eifert, Till; Eigen, Gerald; Einsweiler, Kevin; Eisenhandler, Eric; Ekelof, Tord; El Kacimi, Mohamed; Ellert, Mattias; Elles, Sabine; Ellinghaus, Frank; Ellis, Katherine; Ellis, Nicolas; Elmsheuser, Johannes; Elsing, Markus; Emeliyanov, Dmitry; Engelmann, Roderich; Engl, Albert; Epp, Brigitte; Eppig, Andrew; Erdmann, Johannes; Ereditato, Antonio; Eriksson, Daniel; Ernst, Jesse; Ernst, Michael; Ernwein, Jean; Errede, Deborah; Errede, Steven; Ertel, Eugen; Escalier, Marc; Escobar, Carlos; Espinal Curull, Xavier; Esposito, Bellisario; Etienne, Francois; Etienvre, Anne-Isabelle; Etzion, Erez; Evangelakou, Despoina; Evans, Hal; Fabbri, Laura; Fabre, Caroline; Fakhrutdinov, Rinat; Falciano, Speranza; Fang, Yaquan; Fanti, Marcello; Farbin, Amir; Farilla, Addolorata; Farley, Jason; Farooque, Trisha; Farrington, Sinead; Farthouat, Philippe; Fassnacht, Patrick; Fassouliotis, Dimitrios; Fatholahzadeh, Baharak; Favareto, Andrea; Fayard, Louis; Fazio, Salvatore; Febbraro, Renato; Federic, Pavol; Fedin, Oleg; Fedorko, Woiciech; Fehling-Kaschek, Mirjam; Feligioni, Lorenzo; Fellmann, Denis; Feng, Cunfeng; Feng, Eric; Fenyuk, Alexander; Ferencei, Jozef; Ferland, Jonathan; Fernando, Waruna; Ferrag, Samir; Ferrando, James; Ferrara, Valentina; Ferrari, Arnaud; Ferrari, Pamela; Ferrari, Roberto; Ferreira de Lima, Danilo Enoque; Ferrer, Antonio; Ferrer, Maria Lorenza; Ferrere, Didier; Ferretti, Claudio; Ferretto Parodi, Andrea; Fiascaris, Maria; Fiedler, Frank; Filipčič, Andrej; Filippas, Anastasios; Filthaut, Frank; Fincke-Keeler, Margret; Fiolhais, Miguel; Fiorini, Luca; Firan, Ana; Fischer, Gordon; Fischer, Peter; Fisher, Matthew; Flechl, Martin; Fleck, Ivor; Fleckner, Johanna; Fleischmann, Philipp; Fleischmann, Sebastian; Flick, Tobias; Floderus, Anders; Flores Castillo, Luis; Flowerdew, Michael; Fokitis, Manolis; Fonseca Martin, Teresa; Forbush, David Alan; Formica, Andrea; Forti, Alessandra; Fortin, Dominique; Foster, Joe; Fournier, Daniel; Foussat, Arnaud; Fowler, Andrew; Fowler, Ken; Fox, Harald; Francavilla, Paolo; Franchino, Silvia; Francis, David; Frank, Tal; Franklin, Melissa; Franz, Sebastien; Fraternali, Marco; Fratina, Sasa; French, Sky; Friedrich, Felix; Froeschl, Robert; Froidevaux, Daniel; Frost, James; Fukunaga, Chikara; Fullana Torregrosa, Esteban; Fuster, Juan; Gabaldon, Carolina; Gabizon, Ofir; Gadfort, Thomas; Gadomski, Szymon; Gagliardi, Guido; Gagnon, Pauline; Galea, Cristina; Gallas, Elizabeth; Gallo, Valentina Santina; Gallop, Bruce; Gallus, Petr; Gan, KK; Gao, Yongsheng; Gapienko, Vladimir; Gaponenko, Andrei; Garberson, Ford; Garcia-Sciveres, Maurice; García, Carmen; García Navarro, José Enrique; Gardner, Robert; Garelli, Nicoletta; Garitaonandia, Hegoi; Garonne, Vincent; Garvey, John; Gatti, Claudio; Gaudio, Gabriella; Gaur, Bakul; Gauthier, Lea; Gavrilenko, Igor; Gay, Colin; Gaycken, Goetz; Gayde, Jean-Christophe; Gazis, Evangelos; Ge, Peng; Gee, Norman; Geerts, Daniël Alphonsus Adrianus; Geich-Gimbel, Christoph; Gellerstedt, Karl; Gemme, Claudia; Gemmell, Alistair; Genest, Marie-Hélène; Gentile, Simonetta; George, Matthias; George, Simon; Gerlach, Peter; Gershon, Avi; Geweniger, Christoph; Ghazlane, Hamid; Ghodbane, Nabil; Giacobbe, Benedetto; Giagu, Stefano; Giakoumopoulou, Victoria; Giangiobbe, Vincent; Gianotti, Fabiola; Gibbard, Bruce; Gibson, Adam; Gibson, Stephen; Gilbert, Laura; Gilewsky, Valentin; Gillberg, Dag; Gillman, Tony; Gingrich, Douglas; Ginzburg, Jonatan; Giokaris, Nikos; Giordani, MarioPaolo; Giordano, Raffaele; Giorgi, Francesco Michelangelo; Giovannini, Paola; Giraud, Pierre-Francois; Giugni, Danilo; Giunta, Michele; Giusti, Paolo; Gjelsten, Børge Kile; Gladilin, Leonid; Glasman, Claudia; Glatzer, Julian; Glazov, Alexandre; Glitza, Karl-Walter; Glonti, George; Goddard, Jack Robert; Godfrey, Jennifer; Godlewski, Jan; Goebel, Martin; Göpfert, Thomas; Goeringer, Christian; Gössling, Claus; Göttfert, Tobias; Goldfarb, Steven; Golling, Tobias; Gomes, Agostinho; Gomez Fajardo, Luz Stella; Gonçalo, Ricardo; Goncalves Pinto Firmino Da Costa, Joao; Gonella, Laura; Gonidec, Allain; Gonzalez, Saul; González de la Hoz, Santiago; Gonzalez Parra, Garoe; Gonzalez Silva, Laura; Gonzalez-Sevilla, Sergio; Goodson, Jeremiah Jet; Goossens, Luc; Gorbounov, Petr Andreevich; Gordon, Howard; Gorelov, Igor; Gorfine, Grant; Gorini, Benedetto; Gorini, Edoardo; Gorišek, Andrej; Gornicki, Edward; Gorokhov, Serguei; Goryachev, Vladimir; Gosdzik, Bjoern; Gosselink, Martijn; Gostkin, Mikhail Ivanovitch; Gough Eschrich, Ivo; Gouighri, Mohamed; Goujdami, Driss; Goulette, Marc Phillippe; Goussiou, Anna; Goy, Corinne; Gozpinar, Serdar; Grabowska-Bold, Iwona; Grafström, Per; Grahn, Karl-Johan; Grancagnolo, Francesco; Grancagnolo, Sergio; Grassi, Valerio; Gratchev, Vadim; Grau, Nathan; Gray, Heather; Gray, Julia Ann; Graziani, Enrico; Grebenyuk, Oleg; Greenshaw, Timothy; Greenwood, Zeno Dixon; Gregersen, Kristian; Gregor, Ingrid-Maria; Grenier, Philippe; Griffiths, Justin; Grigalashvili, Nugzar; Grillo, Alexander; Grinstein, Sebastian; Grishkevich, Yaroslav; Grivaz, Jean-Francois; Groh, Manfred; Gross, Eilam; Grosse-Knetter, Joern; Groth-Jensen, Jacob; Grybel, Kai; Guarino, Victor; Guest, Daniel; Guicheney, Christophe; Guida, Angelo; Guindon, Stefan; Guler, Hulya; Gunther, Jaroslav; Guo, Bin; Guo, Jun; Gupta, Ambreesh; Gusakov, Yury; Gushchin, Vladimir; Gutierrez, Phillip; Guttman, Nir; Gutzwiller, Olivier; Guyot, Claude; Gwenlan, Claire; Gwilliam, Carl; Haas, Andy; Haas, Stefan; Haber, Carl; Hackenburg, Robert; Hadavand, Haleh Khani; Hadley, David; Haefner, Petra; Hahn, Ferdinand; Haider, Stefan; Hajduk, Zbigniew; Hakobyan, Hrachya; Hall, David; Haller, Johannes; Hamacher, Klaus; Hamal, Petr; Hamer, Matthias; Hamilton, Andrew; Hamilton, Samuel; Han, Hongguang; Han, Liang; Hanagaki, Kazunori; Hanawa, Keita; Hance, Michael; Handel, Carsten; Hanke, Paul; Hansen, John Renner; Hansen, Jørgen Beck; Hansen, Jorn Dines; Hansen, Peter Henrik; Hansson, Per; Hara, Kazuhiko; Hare, Gabriel; Harenberg, Torsten; Harkusha, Siarhei; Harper, Devin; Harrington, Robert; Harris, Orin; Harrison, Karl; Hartert, Jochen; Hartjes, Fred; Haruyama, Tomiyoshi; Harvey, Alex; Hasegawa, Satoshi; Hasegawa, Yoji; Hassani, Samira; Hatch, Mark; Hauff, Dieter; Haug, Sigve; Hauschild, Michael; Hauser, Reiner; Havranek, Miroslav; Hawes, Brian; Hawkes, Christopher; Hawkings, Richard John; Hawkins, Anthony David; Hawkins, Donovan; Hayakawa, Takashi; Hayashi, Takayasu; Hayden, Daniel; Hayward, Helen; Haywood, Stephen; Hazen, Eric; He, Mao; Head, Simon; Hedberg, Vincent; Heelan, Louise; Heim, Sarah; Heinemann, Beate; Heisterkamp, Simon; Helary, Louis; Heller, Claudio; Heller, Matthieu; Hellman, Sten; Hellmich, Dennis; Helsens, Clement; Henderson, Robert; Henke, Michael; Henrichs, Anna; Henriques Correia, Ana Maria; Henrot-Versille, Sophie; Henry-Couannier, Frédéric; Hensel, Carsten; Henß, Tobias; Medina Hernandez, Carlos; Hernández Jiménez, Yesenia; Herrberg, Ruth; Hershenhorn, Alon David; Herten, Gregor; Hertenberger, Ralf; Hervas, Luis; Hesketh, Gavin Grant; Hessey, Nigel; Higón-Rodriguez, Emilio; Hill, Daniel; Hill, John; Hill, Norman; Hiller, Karl Heinz; Hillert, Sonja; Hillier, Stephen; Hinchliffe, Ian; Hines, Elizabeth; Hirose, Minoru; Hirsch, Florian; Hirschbuehl, Dominic; Hobbs, John; Hod, Noam; Hodgkinson, Mark; Hodgson, Paul; Hoecker, Andreas; Hoeferkamp, Martin; Hoffman, Julia; Hoffmann, Dirk; Hohlfeld, Marc; Holder, Martin; Holmgren, Sven-Olof; Holy, Tomas; Holzbauer, Jenny; Homma, Yasuhiro; Hong, Tae Min; Hooft van Huysduynen, Loek; Horazdovsky, Tomas; Horn, Claus; Horner, Stephan; Hostachy, Jean-Yves; Hou, Suen; Houlden, Michael; Hoummada, Abdeslam; Howarth, James; Howell, David; Hristova, Ivana; Hrivnac, Julius; Hruska, Ivan; Hryn'ova, Tetiana; Hsu, Pai-hsien Jennifer; Hsu, Shih-Chieh; Huang, Guang Shun; Hubacek, Zdenek; Hubaut, Fabrice; Huegging, Fabian; Huettmann, Antje; Huffman, Todd Brian; Hughes, Emlyn; Hughes, Gareth; Hughes-Jones, Richard; Huhtinen, Mika; Hurst, Peter; Hurwitz, Martina; Husemann, Ulrich; Huseynov, Nazim; Huston, Joey; Huth, John; Iacobucci, Giuseppe; Iakovidis, Georgios; Ibbotson, Michael; Ibragimov, Iskander; Ichimiya, Ryo; Iconomidou-Fayard, Lydia; Idarraga, John; Iengo, Paolo; Igonkina, Olga; Ikegami, Yoichi; Ikeno, Masahiro; Ilchenko, Yuri; Iliadis, Dimitrios; Ilic, Nikolina; Imori, Masatoshi; Ince, Tayfun; Inigo-Golfin, Joaquin; Ioannou, Pavlos; Iodice, Mauro; Ippolito, Valerio; Irles Quiles, Adrian; Isaksson, Charlie; Ishikawa, Akimasa; Ishino, Masaya; Ishmukhametov, Renat; Issever, Cigdem; Istin, Serhat; Ivashin, Anton; Iwanski, Wieslaw; Iwasaki, Hiroyuki; Izen, Joseph; Izzo, Vincenzo; Jackson, Brett; Jackson, John; Jackson, Paul; Jaekel, Martin; Jain, Vivek; Jakobs, Karl; Jakobsen, Sune; Jakubek, Jan; Jana, Dilip; Jankowski, Ernest; Jansen, Eric; Jansen, Hendrik; Jantsch, Andreas; Janus, Michel; Jarlskog, Göran; Jeanty, Laura; Jelen, Kazimierz; Jen-La Plante, Imai; Jenni, Peter; Jeremie, Andrea; Jež, Pavel; Jézéquel, Stéphane; Jha, Manoj Kumar; Ji, Haoshuang; Ji, Weina; Jia, Jiangyong; Jiang, Yi; Jimenez Belenguer, Marcos; Jin, Ge; Jin, Shan; Jinnouchi, Osamu; Joergensen, Morten Dam; Joffe, David; Johansen, Lars; Johansen, Marianne; Johansson, Erik; Johansson, Per; Johnert, Sebastian; Johns, Kenneth; Jon-And, Kerstin; Jones, Graham; Jones, Roger; Jones, Tegid; Jones, Tim; Jonsson, Ove; Joram, Christian; Jorge, Pedro; Joseph, John; Jovicevic, Jelena; Jovin, Tatjana; Ju, Xiangyang; Jung, Christian; Jungst, Ralph Markus; Juranek, Vojtech; Jussel, Patrick; Juste Rozas, Aurelio; Kabachenko, Vasily; Kabana, Sonja; Kaci, Mohammed; Kaczmarska, Anna; Kadlecik, Peter; Kado, Marumi; Kagan, Harris; Kagan, Michael; Kaiser, Steffen; Kajomovitz, Enrique; Kalinin, Sergey; Kalinovskaya, Lidia; Kama, Sami; Kanaya, Naoko; Kaneda, Michiru; Kaneti, Steven; Kanno, Takayuki; Kantserov, Vadim; Kanzaki, Junichi; Kaplan, Benjamin; Kapliy, Anton; Kaplon, Jan; Kar, Deepak; Karagoz, Muge; Karnevskiy, Mikhail; Karr, Kristo; Kartvelishvili, Vakhtang; Karyukhin, Andrey; Kashif, Lashkar; Kasieczka, Gregor; Kasmi, Azzedine; Kass, Richard; Kastanas, Alex; Kataoka, Mayuko; Kataoka, Yousuke; Katsoufis, Elias; Katzy, Judith; Kaushik, Venkatesh; Kawagoe, Kiyotomo; Kawamoto, Tatsuo; Kawamura, Gen; Kayl, Manuel; Kazanin, Vassili; Kazarinov, Makhail; Keeler, Richard; Kehoe, Robert; Keil, Markus; Kekelidze, George; Kennedy, John; Kenney, Christopher John; Kenyon, Mike; Kepka, Oldrich; Kerschen, Nicolas; Kerševan, Borut Paul; Kersten, Susanne; Kessoku, Kohei; Keung, Justin; Khakzad, Mohsen; Khalil-zada, Farkhad; Khandanyan, Hovhannes; Khanov, Alexander; Kharchenko, Dmitri; Khodinov, Alexander; Kholodenko, Anatoli; Khomich, Andrei; Khoo, Teng Jian; Khoriauli, Gia; Khoroshilov, Andrey; Khovanskiy, Nikolai; Khovanskiy, Valery; Khramov, Evgeniy; Khubua, Jemal; Kim, Hyeon Jin; Kim, Min Suk; Kim, Shinhong; Kimura, Naoki; Kind, Oliver; King, Barry; King, Matthew; King, Robert Steven Beaufoy; Kirk, Julie; Kirsch, Lawrence; Kiryunin, Andrey; Kishimoto, Tomoe; Kisielewska, Danuta; Kittelmann, Thomas; Kiver, Andrey; Kladiva, Eduard; Klaiber-Lodewigs, Jonas; Klein, Max; Klein, Uta; Kleinknecht, Konrad; Klemetti, Miika; Klier, Amit; Klimek, Pawel; Klimentov, Alexei; Klingenberg, Reiner; Klinger, Joel Alexander; Klinkby, Esben; Klioutchnikova, Tatiana; Klok, Peter; Klous, Sander; Kluge, Eike-Erik; Kluge, Thomas; Kluit, Peter; Kluth, Stefan; Knecht, Neil; Kneringer, Emmerich; Knobloch, Juergen; Knoops, Edith; Knue, Andrea; Ko, Byeong Rok; Kobayashi, Tomio; Kobel, Michael; Kocian, Martin; Kodys, Peter; Köneke, Karsten; König, Adriaan; Koenig, Sebastian; Köpke, Lutz; Koetsveld, Folkert; Koevesarki, Peter; Koffas, Thomas; Koffeman, Els; Kogan, Lucy Anne; Kohn, Fabian; Kohout, Zdenek; Kohriki, Takashi; Koi, Tatsumi; Kokott, Thomas; Kolachev, Guennady; Kolanoski, Hermann; Kolesnikov, Vladimir; Koletsou, Iro; Koll, James; Kollefrath, Michael; Kolya, Scott; Komar, Aston; Komori, Yuto; Kondo, Takahiko; Kono, Takanori; Kononov, Anatoly; Konoplich, Rostislav; Konstantinidis, Nikolaos; Kootz, Andreas; Koperny, Stefan; Korcyl, Krzysztof; Kordas, Kostantinos; Koreshev, Victor; Korn, Andreas; Korol, Aleksandr; Korolkov, Ilya; Korolkova, Elena; Korotkov, Vladislav; Kortner, Oliver; Kortner, Sandra; Kostyukhin, Vadim; Kotamäki, Miikka Juhani; Kotov, Sergey; Kotov, Vladislav; Kotwal, Ashutosh; Kourkoumelis, Christine; Kouskoura, Vasiliki; Koutsman, Alex; Kowalewski, Robert Victor; Kowalski, Tadeusz; Kozanecki, Witold; Kozhin, Anatoly; Kral, Vlastimil; Kramarenko, Viktor; Kramberger, Gregor; Krasny, Mieczyslaw Witold; Krasznahorkay, Attila; Kraus, James; Kraus, Jana; Kreisel, Arik; Krejci, Frantisek; Kretzschmar, Jan; Krieger, Nina; Krieger, Peter; Kroeninger, Kevin; Kroha, Hubert; Kroll, Joe; Kroseberg, Juergen; Krstic, Jelena; Kruchonak, Uladzimir; Krüger, Hans; Kruker, Tobias; Krumnack, Nils; Krumshteyn, Zinovii; Kruth, Andre; Kubota, Takashi; Kuday, Sinan; Kuehn, Susanne; Kugel, Andreas; Kuhl, Thorsten; Kuhn, Dietmar; Kukhtin, Victor; Kulchitsky, Yuri; Kuleshov, Sergey; Kummer, Christian; Kuna, Marine; Kundu, Nikhil; Kunkle, Joshua; Kupco, Alexander; Kurashige, Hisaya; Kurata, Masakazu; Kurochkin, Yurii; Kus, Vlastimil; Kuwertz, Emma Sian; Kuze, Masahiro; Kvita, Jiri; Kwee, Regina; La Rosa, Alessandro; La Rotonda, Laura; Labarga, Luis; Labbe, Julien; Lablak, Said; Lacasta, Carlos; Lacava, Francesco; Lacker, Heiko; Lacour, Didier; Lacuesta, Vicente Ramón; Ladygin, Evgueni; Lafaye, Remi; Laforge, Bertrand; Lagouri, Theodota; Lai, Stanley; Laisne, Emmanuel; Lamanna, Massimo; Lampen, Caleb; Lampl, Walter; Lancon, Eric; Landgraf, Ulrich; Landon, Murrough; Lane, Jenna; Lange, Clemens; Lankford, Andrew; Lanni, Francesco; Lantzsch, Kerstin; Laplace, Sandrine; Lapoire, Cecile; Laporte, Jean-Francois; Lari, Tommaso; Larionov, Anatoly; Larner, Aimee; Lasseur, Christian; Lassnig, Mario; Laurelli, Paolo; Lavorini, Vincenzo; Lavrijsen, Wim; Laycock, Paul; Lazarev, Alexandre; Le Dortz, Olivier; Le Guirriec, Emmanuel; Le Maner, Christophe; Le Menedeu, Eve; Lebel, Céline; LeCompte, Thomas; Ledroit-Guillon, Fabienne Agnes Marie; Lee, Hurng-Chun; Lee, Jason; Lee, Shih-Chang; Lee, Lawrence; Lefebvre, Michel; Legendre, Marie; Leger, Annie; LeGeyt, Benjamin; Legger, Federica; Leggett, Charles; Lehmacher, Marc; Lehmann Miotto, Giovanna; Lei, Xiaowen; Leite, Marco Aurelio Lisboa; Leitner, Rupert; Lellouch, Daniel; Leltchouk, Mikhail; Lemmer, Boris; Lendermann, Victor; Leney, Katharine; Lenz, Tatiana; Lenzen, Georg; Lenzi, Bruno; Leonhardt, Kathrin; Leontsinis, Stefanos; Leroy, Claude; Lessard, Jean-Raphael; Lesser, Jonas; Lester, Christopher; Leung Fook Cheong, Annabelle; Levêque, Jessica; Levin, Daniel; Levinson, Lorne; Levitski, Mikhail; Lewis, Adrian; Lewis, George; Leyko, Agnieszka; Leyton, Michael; Li, Bo; Li, Haifeng; Li, Shu; Li, Xuefei; Liang, Zhijun; Liao, Hongbo; Liberti, Barbara; Lichard, Peter; Lichtnecker, Markus; Lie, Ki; Liebig, Wolfgang; Lifshitz, Ronen; Lilley, Joseph; Limbach, Christian; Limosani, Antonio; Limper, Maaike; Lin, Simon; Linde, Frank; Linnemann, James; Lipeles, Elliot; Lipinsky, Lukas; Lipniacka, Anna; Liss, Tony; Lissauer, David; Lister, Alison; Litke, Alan; Liu, Chuanlei; Liu, Dong; Liu, Hao; Liu, Jianbei; Liu, Minghui; Liu, Yanwen; Livan, Michele; Livermore, Sarah; Lleres, Annick; Llorente Merino, Javier; Lloyd, Stephen; Lobodzinska, Ewelina; Loch, Peter; Lockman, William; Loddenkoetter, Thomas; Loebinger, Fred; Loginov, Andrey; Loh, Chang Wei; Lohse, Thomas; Lohwasser, Kristin; Lokajicek, Milos; Loken, James; Lombardo, Vincenzo Paolo; Long, Robin Eamonn; Lopes, Lourenco; Lopez Mateos, David; Lorenz, Jeanette; Lorenzo Martinez, Narei; Losada, Marta; Loscutoff, Peter; Lo Sterzo, Francesco; Losty, Michael; Lou, Xinchou; Lounis, Abdenour; Loureiro, Karina; Love, Jeremy; Love, Peter; Lowe, Andrew; Lu, Feng; Lubatti, Henry; Luci, Claudio; Lucotte, Arnaud; Ludwig, Andreas; Ludwig, Dörthe; Ludwig, Inga; Ludwig, Jens; Luehring, Frederick; Luijckx, Guy; Lumb, Debra; Luminari, Lamberto; Lund, Esben; Lund-Jensen, Bengt; Lundberg, Björn; Lundberg, Johan; Lundquist, Johan; Lungwitz, Matthias; Lutz, Gerhard; Lynn, David; Lys, Jeremy; Lytken, Else; Ma, Hong; Ma, Lian Liang; Macana Goia, Jorge Andres; Maccarrone, Giovanni; Macchiolo, Anna; Maček, Boštjan; Machado Miguens, Joana; Mackeprang, Rasmus; Madaras, Ronald; Mader, Wolfgang; Maenner, Reinhard; Maeno, Tadashi; Mättig, Peter; Mättig, Stefan; Magnoni, Luca; Magradze, Erekle; Mahalalel, Yair; Mahboubi, Kambiz; Mahout, Gilles; Maiani, Camilla; Maidantchik, Carmen; Maio, Amélia; Majewski, Stephanie; Makida, Yasuhiro; Makovec, Nikola; Mal, Prolay; Malaescu, Bogdan; Malecki, Pawel; Malecki, Piotr; Maleev, Victor; Malek, Fairouz; Mallik, Usha; Malon, David; Malone, Caitlin; Maltezos, Stavros; Malyshev, Vladimir; Malyukov, Sergei; Mameghani, Raphael; Mamuzic, Judita; Manabe, Atsushi; Mandelli, Luciano; Mandić, Igor; Mandrysch, Rocco; Maneira, José; Mangeard, Pierre-Simon; Manhaes de Andrade Filho, Luciano; Manjavidze, Ioseb; Mann, Alexander; Manning, Peter; Manousakis-Katsikakis, Arkadios; Mansoulie, Bruno; Manz, Andreas; Mapelli, Alessandro; Mapelli, Livio; March, Luis; Marchand, Jean-Francois; Marchese, Fabrizio; Marchiori, Giovanni; Marcisovsky, Michal; Marin, Alexandru; Marino, Christopher; Marroquim, Fernando; Marshall, Robin; Marshall, Zach; Martens, Kalen; Marti-Garcia, Salvador; Martin, Andrew; Martin, Brian; Martin, Brian Thomas; Martin, Franck Francois; Martin, Jean-Pierre; Martin, Philippe; Martin, Tim; Martin, Victoria Jane; Martin dit Latour, Bertrand; Martin-Haugh, Stewart; Martinez, Mario; Martinez Outschoorn, Verena; Martyniuk, Alex; Marx, Marilyn; Marzano, Francesco; Marzin, Antoine; Masetti, Lucia; Mashimo, Tetsuro; Mashinistov, Ruslan; Masik, Jiri; Maslennikov, Alexey; Massa, Ignazio; Massaro, Graziano; Massol, Nicolas; Mastrandrea, Paolo; Mastroberardino, Anna; Masubuchi, Tatsuya; Mathes, Markus; Matricon, Pierre; Matsumoto, Hiroshi; Matsunaga, Hiroyuki; Matsushita, Takashi; Mattravers, Carly; Maugain, Jean-Marie; Maurer, Julien; Maxfield, Stephen; Maximov, Dmitriy; May, Edward; Mayne, Anna; Mazini, Rachid; Mazur, Michael; Mazzanti, Marcello; Mazzoni, Enrico; Mc Kee, Shawn Patrick; McCarn, Allison; McCarthy, Robert; McCarthy, Tom; McCubbin, Norman; McFarlane, Kenneth; Mcfayden, Josh; McGlone, Helen; Mchedlidze, Gvantsa; McLaren, Robert Andrew; Mclaughlan, Tom; McMahon, Steve; McPherson, Robert; Meade, Andrew; Mechnich, Joerg; Mechtel, Markus; Medinnis, Mike; Meera-Lebbai, Razzak; Meguro, Tatsuma; Mehdiyev, Rashid; Mehlhase, Sascha; Mehta, Andrew; Meier, Karlheinz; Meirose, Bernhard; Melachrinos, Constantinos; Mellado Garcia, Bruce Rafael; Mendoza Navas, Luis; Meng, Zhaoxia; Mengarelli, Alberto; Menke, Sven; Menot, Claude; Meoni, Evelin; Mercurio, Kevin Michael; Mermod, Philippe; Merola, Leonardo; Meroni, Chiara; Merritt, Frank; Merritt, Hayes; Messina, Andrea; Metcalfe, Jessica; Mete, Alaettin Serhan; Meyer, Carsten; Meyer, Christopher; Meyer, Jean-Pierre; Meyer, Jochen; Meyer, Joerg; Meyer, Thomas Christian; Meyer, W Thomas; Miao, Jiayuan; Michal, Sebastien; Micu, Liliana; Middleton, Robin; Migas, Sylwia; Mijović, Liza; Mikenberg, Giora; Mikestikova, Marcela; Mikuž, Marko; Miller, David; Miller, Robert; Mills, Bill; Mills, Corrinne; Milov, Alexander; Milstead, David; Milstein, Dmitry; Minaenko, Andrey; Miñano Moya, Mercedes; Minashvili, Irakli; Mincer, Allen; Mindur, Bartosz; Mineev, Mikhail; Ming, Yao; Mir, Lluisa-Maria; Mirabelli, Giovanni; Miralles Verge, Lluis; Misiejuk, Andrzej; Mitrevski, Jovan; Mitrofanov, Gennady; Mitsou, Vasiliki A; Mitsui, Shingo; Miyagawa, Paul; Miyazaki, Kazuki; Mjörnmark, Jan-Ulf; Moa, Torbjoern; Mockett, Paul; Moed, Shulamit; Moeller, Victoria; Mönig, Klaus; Möser, Nicolas; Mohapatra, Soumya; Mohr, Wolfgang; Mohrdieck-Möck, Susanne; Moisseev, Artemy; Moles-Valls, Regina; Molina-Perez, Jorge; Monk, James; Monnier, Emmanuel; Montesano, Simone; Monticelli, Fernando; Monzani, Simone; Moore, Roger; Moorhead, Gareth; Mora Herrera, Clemencia; Moraes, Arthur; Morange, Nicolas; Morel, Julien; Morello, Gianfranco; Moreno, Deywis; Moreno Llácer, María; Morettini, Paolo; Morgenstern, Marcus; Morii, Masahiro; Morin, Jerome; Morley, Anthony Keith; Mornacchi, Giuseppe; Morozov, Sergey; Morris, John; Morvaj, Ljiljana; Moser, Hans-Guenther; Mosidze, Maia; Moss, Josh; Mount, Richard; Mountricha, Eleni; Mouraviev, Sergei; Moyse, Edward; Mudrinic, Mihajlo; Mueller, Felix; Mueller, James; Mueller, Klemens; Müller, Thomas; Mueller, Timo; Muenstermann, Daniel; Muir, Alex; Munwes, Yonathan; Murray, Bill; Mussche, Ido; Musto, Elisa; Myagkov, Alexey; Nadal, Jordi; Nagai, Koichi; Nagano, Kunihiro; Nagarkar, Advait; Nagasaka, Yasushi; Nagel, Martin; Nairz, Armin Michael; Nakahama, Yu; Nakamura, Koji; Nakamura, Tomoaki; Nakano, Itsuo; Nanava, Gizo; Napier, Austin; Narayan, Rohin; Nash, Michael; Nation, Nigel; Nattermann, Till; Naumann, Thomas; Navarro, Gabriela; Neal, Homer; Nebot, Eduardo; Nechaeva, Polina; Neep, Thomas James; Negri, Andrea; Negri, Guido; Nektarijevic, Snezana; Nelson, Andrew; Nelson, Silke; Nelson, Timothy Knight; Nemecek, Stanislav; Nemethy, Peter; Nepomuceno, Andre Asevedo; Nessi, Marzio; Neubauer, Mark; Neusiedl, Andrea; Neves, Ricardo; Nevski, Pavel; Newman, Paul; Nguyen Thi Hong, Van; Nickerson, Richard; Nicolaidou, Rosy; Nicolas, Ludovic; Nicquevert, Bertrand; Niedercorn, Francois; Nielsen, Jason; Niinikoski, Tapio; Nikiforou, Nikiforos; Nikiforov, Andriy; Nikolaenko, Vladimir; Nikolaev, Kirill; Nikolic-Audit, Irena; Nikolics, Katalin; Nikolopoulos, Konstantinos; Nilsen, Henrik; Nilsson, Paul; Ninomiya, Yoichi; Nisati, Aleandro; Nishiyama, Tomonori; Nisius, Richard; Nodulman, Lawrence; Nomachi, Masaharu; Nomidis, Ioannis; Nordberg, Markus; Nordkvist, Bjoern; Norton, Peter; Novakova, Jana; Nozaki, Mitsuaki; Nozka, Libor; Nugent, Ian Michael; Nuncio-Quiroz, Adriana-Elizabeth; Nunes Hanninger, Guilherme; Nunnemann, Thomas; Nurse, Emily; O'Brien, Brendan Joseph; O'Neale, Steve; O'Neil, Dugan; O'Shea, Val; Oakes, Louise Beth; Oakham, Gerald; Oberlack, Horst; Ocariz, Jose; Ochi, Atsuhiko; Oda, Susumu; Odaka, Shigeru; Odier, Jerome; Ogren, Harold; Oh, Alexander; Oh, Seog; Ohm, Christian; Ohshima, Takayoshi; Ohshita, Hidetoshi; Ohsugi, Takashi; Okada, Shogo; Okawa, Hideki; Okumura, Yasuyuki; Okuyama, Toyonobu; Olariu, Albert; Olcese, Marco; Olchevski, Alexander; Olivares Pino, Sebastian Andres; Oliveira, Miguel Alfonso; Oliveira Damazio, Denis; Oliver Garcia, Elena; Olivito, Dominick; Olszewski, Andrzej; Olszowska, Jolanta; Omachi, Chihiro; Onofre, António; Onyisi, Peter; Oram, Christopher; Oreglia, Mark; Oren, Yona; Orestano, Domizia; Orlov, Iliya; Oropeza Barrera, Cristina; Orr, Robert; Osculati, Bianca; Ospanov, Rustem; Osuna, Carlos; Otero y Garzon, Gustavo; Ottersbach, John; Ouchrif, Mohamed; Ouellette, Eric; Ould-Saada, Farid; Ouraou, Ahmimed; Ouyang, Qun; Ovcharova, Ana; Owen, Mark; Owen, Simon; Ozcan, Veysi Erkcan; Ozturk, Nurcan; Pacheco Pages, Andres; Padilla Aranda, Cristobal; Pagan Griso, Simone; Paganis, Efstathios; Paige, Frank; Pais, Preema; Pajchel, Katarina; Palacino, Gabriel; Paleari, Chiara; Palestini, Sandro; Pallin, Dominique; Palma, Alberto; Palmer, Jody; Pan, Yibin; Panagiotopoulou, Evgenia; Panes, Boris; Panikashvili, Natalia; Panitkin, Sergey; Pantea, Dan; Panuskova, Monika; Paolone, Vittorio; Papadelis, Aras; Papadopoulou, Theodora; Paramonov, Alexander; Park, Woochun; Parker, Andy; Parodi, Fabrizio; Parsons, John; Parzefall, Ulrich; Pasqualucci, Enrico; Passaggio, Stefano; Passeri, Antonio; Pastore, Fernanda; Pastore, Francesca; Pásztor, Gabriella; Pataraia, Sophio; Patel, Nikhul; Pater, Joleen; Patricelli, Sergio; Pauly, Thilo; Pecsy, Martin; Pedraza Morales, Maria Isabel; Peleganchuk, Sergey; Peng, Haiping; Pengo, Ruggero; Penning, Bjoern; Penson, Alexander; Penwell, John; Perantoni, Marcelo; Perez, Kerstin; Perez Cavalcanti, Tiago; Perez Codina, Estel; Pérez García-Estañ, María Teresa; Perez Reale, Valeria; Perini, Laura; Pernegger, Heinz; Perrino, Roberto; Perrodo, Pascal; Persembe, Seda; Perus, Antoine; Peshekhonov, Vladimir; Peters, Krisztian; Petersen, Brian; Petersen, Jorgen; Petersen, Troels; Petit, Elisabeth; Petridis, Andreas; Petridou, Chariclia; Petrolo, Emilio; Petrucci, Fabrizio; Petschull, Dennis; Petteni, Michele; Pezoa, Raquel; Phan, Anna; Phillips, Peter William; Piacquadio, Giacinto; Piccaro, Elisa; Piccinini, Maurizio; Piec, Sebastian Marcin; Piegaia, Ricardo; Pignotti, David; Pilcher, James; Pilkington, Andrew; Pina, João Antonio; Pinamonti, Michele; Pinder, Alex; Pinfold, James; Ping, Jialun; Pinto, Belmiro; Pirotte, Olivier; Pizio, Caterina; Placakyte, Ringaile; Plamondon, Mathieu; Pleier, Marc-Andre; Pleskach, Anatoly; Poblaguev, Andrei; Poddar, Sahill; Podlyski, Fabrice; Poggioli, Luc; Poghosyan, Tatevik; Pohl, Martin; Polci, Francesco; Polesello, Giacomo; Policicchio, Antonio; Polini, Alessandro; Poll, James; Polychronakos, Venetios; Pomarede, Daniel Marc; Pomeroy, Daniel; Pommès, Kathy; Pontecorvo, Ludovico; Pope, Bernard; Popeneciu, Gabriel Alexandru; Popovic, Dragan; Poppleton, Alan; Portell Bueso, Xavier; Posch, Christoph; Pospelov, Guennady; Pospisil, Stanislav; Potrap, Igor; Potter, Christina; Potter, Christopher; Poulard, Gilbert; Poveda, Joaquin; Pozdnyakov, Valery; Prabhu, Robindra; Pralavorio, Pascal; Pranko, Aliaksandr; Prasad, Srivas; Pravahan, Rishiraj; Prell, Soeren; Pretzl, Klaus Peter; Pribyl, Lukas; Price, Darren; Price, Joe; Price, Lawrence; Price, Michael John; Prieur, Damien; Primavera, Margherita; Prokofiev, Kirill; Prokoshin, Fedor; Protopopescu, Serban; Proudfoot, James; Prudent, Xavier; Przybycien, Mariusz; Przysiezniak, Helenka; Psoroulas, Serena; Ptacek, Elizabeth; Pueschel, Elisa; Purdham, John; Purohit, Milind; Puzo, Patrick; Pylypchenko, Yuriy; Qian, Jianming; Qian, Zuxuan; Qin, Zhonghua; Quadt, Arnulf; Quarrie, David; Quayle, William; Quinonez, Fernando; Raas, Marcel; Radescu, Voica; Radics, Balint; Radloff, Peter; Rador, Tonguc; Ragusa, Francesco; Rahal, Ghita; Rahimi, Amir; Rahm, David; Rajagopalan, Srinivasan; Rammensee, Michael; Rammes, Marcus; Randle-Conde, Aidan Sean; 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2013-03-02

The uncertainty on the calorimeter energy response to jets of particles is derived for the ATLAS experiment at the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). First, the calorimeter response to single isolated charged hadrons is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo simulation using proton-proton collisions at centre-of-mass energies of $\\sqrt{s}$ = 900 GeV and 7 TeV collected during 2009 and 2010. Then, using the decay of K_s and Lambda particles, the calorimeter response to specific types of particles (positively and negatively charged pions, protons, and anti-protons) is measured and compared to the Monte Carlo predictions. Finally, the jet energy scale uncertainty is determined by propagating the response uncertainty for single charged and neutral particles to jets. The response uncertainty is 2-5% for central isolated hadrons and 1-3% for the final calorimeter jet energy scale.

Robust framework for PET image reconstruction incorporating system and measurement uncertainties.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huafeng Liu

Full Text Available In Positron Emission Tomography (PET, an optimal estimate of the radioactivity concentration is obtained from the measured emission data under certain criteria. So far, all the well-known statistical reconstruction algorithms require exactly known system probability matrix a priori, and the quality of such system model largely determines the quality of the reconstructed images. In this paper, we propose an algorithm for PET image reconstruction for the real world case where the PET system model is subject to uncertainties. The method counts PET reconstruction as a regularization problem and the image estimation is achieved by means of an uncertainty weighted least squares framework. The performance of our work is evaluated with the Shepp-Logan simulated and real phantom data, which demonstrates significant improvements in image quality over the least squares reconstruction efforts.

Quantification of Safety-Critical Software Test Uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khalaquzzaman, M.; Cho, Jaehyun; Lee, Seung Jun; Jung, Wondea

2015-01-01

The method, conservatively assumes that the failure probability of a software for the untested inputs is 1, and the failure probability turns in 0 for successful testing of all test cases. However, in reality the chance of failure exists due to the test uncertainty. Some studies have been carried out to identify the test attributes that affect the test quality. Cao discussed the testing effort, testing coverage, and testing environment. Management of the test uncertainties was discussed in. In this study, the test uncertainty has been considered to estimate the software failure probability because the software testing process is considered to be inherently uncertain. A reliability estimation of software is very important for a probabilistic safety analysis of a digital safety critical system of NPPs. This study focused on the estimation of the probability of a software failure that considers the uncertainty in software testing. In our study, BBN has been employed as an example model for software test uncertainty quantification. Although it can be argued that the direct expert elicitation of test uncertainty is much simpler than BBN estimation, however the BBN approach provides more insights and a basis for uncertainty estimation

On the nonlinearity of spatial scales in extreme weather attribution statements

Science.gov (United States)

Angélil, Oliver; Stone, Daíthí; Perkins-Kirkpatrick, Sarah; Alexander, Lisa V.; Wehner, Michael; Shiogama, Hideo; Wolski, Piotr; Ciavarella, Andrew; Christidis, Nikolaos

2018-04-01

In the context of ongoing climate change, extreme weather events are drawing increasing attention from the public and news media. A question often asked is how the likelihood of extremes might have changed by anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions. Answers to the question are strongly influenced by the model used, duration, spatial extent, and geographic location of the event—some of these factors often overlooked. Using output from four global climate models, we provide attribution statements characterised by a change in probability of occurrence due to anthropogenic greenhouse-gas emissions, for rainfall and temperature extremes occurring at seven discretised spatial scales and three temporal scales. An understanding of the sensitivity of attribution statements to a range of spatial and temporal scales of extremes allows for the scaling of attribution statements, rendering them relevant to other extremes having similar but non-identical characteristics. This is a procedure simple enough to approximate timely estimates of the anthropogenic contribution to the event probability. Furthermore, since real extremes do not have well-defined physical borders, scaling can help quantify uncertainty around attribution results due to uncertainty around the event definition. Results suggest that the sensitivity of attribution statements to spatial scale is similar across models and that the sensitivity of attribution statements to the model used is often greater than the sensitivity to a doubling or halving of the spatial scale of the event. The use of a range of spatial scales allows us to identify a nonlinear relationship between the spatial scale of the event studied and the attribution statement.

Conversion factor and uncertainty estimation for quantification of towed gamma-ray detector measurements in Tohoku coastal waters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ohnishi, S.; Thornton, B.; Kamada, S.; Hirao, Y.; Ura, T.; Odano, N.

2016-01-01

Factors to convert the count rate of a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector to the concentration of radioactive cesium in marine sediments are estimated for a towed gamma-ray detector system. The response of the detector against a unit concentration of radioactive cesium is calculated by Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation considering the vertical profile of radioactive material measured in core samples. The conversion factors are acquired by integrating the contribution of each layer and are normalized by the concentration in the surface sediment layer. At the same time, the uncertainty of the conversion factors are formulated and estimated. The combined standard uncertainty of the radioactive cesium concentration by the towed gamma-ray detector is around 25 percent. The values of uncertainty, often referred to as relative root mean squat errors in other works, between sediment core sampling measurements and towed detector measurements were 16 percent in the investigation made near the Abukuma River mouth and 5.2 percent in Sendai Bay, respectively. Most of the uncertainty is due to interpolation of the conversion factors between core samples and uncertainty of the detector's burial depth. The results of the towed measurements agree well with laboratory analysed sediment samples. Also, the concentrations of radioactive cesium at the intersection of each survey line are consistent. The consistency with sampling results and between different lines' transects demonstrate the availability and reproducibility of towed gamma-ray detector system.

Conversion factor and uncertainty estimation for quantification of towed gamma-ray detector measurements in Tohoku coastal waters

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ohnishi, S., E-mail: ohnishi@nmri.go.jp [National Maritime Research Institute, 6-38-1, Shinkawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-0004 (Japan); Thornton, B. [Institute of Industrial Science, The University of Tokyo, 4-6-1, Komaba, Meguro-ku, Tokyo 153-8505 (Japan); Kamada, S.; Hirao, Y.; Ura, T.; Odano, N. [National Maritime Research Institute, 6-38-1, Shinkawa, Mitaka, Tokyo 181-0004 (Japan)

2016-05-21

Factors to convert the count rate of a NaI(Tl) scintillation detector to the concentration of radioactive cesium in marine sediments are estimated for a towed gamma-ray detector system. The response of the detector against a unit concentration of radioactive cesium is calculated by Monte Carlo radiation transport simulation considering the vertical profile of radioactive material measured in core samples. The conversion factors are acquired by integrating the contribution of each layer and are normalized by the concentration in the surface sediment layer. At the same time, the uncertainty of the conversion factors are formulated and estimated. The combined standard uncertainty of the radioactive cesium concentration by the towed gamma-ray detector is around 25 percent. The values of uncertainty, often referred to as relative root mean squat errors in other works, between sediment core sampling measurements and towed detector measurements were 16 percent in the investigation made near the Abukuma River mouth and 5.2 percent in Sendai Bay, respectively. Most of the uncertainty is due to interpolation of the conversion factors between core samples and uncertainty of the detector's burial depth. The results of the towed measurements agree well with laboratory analysed sediment samples. Also, the concentrations of radioactive cesium at the intersection of each survey line are consistent. The consistency with sampling results and between different lines' transects demonstrate the availability and reproducibility of towed gamma-ray detector system.