Availability statistics for thermal power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1990-01-01

Denmark, Finland and Sweden have adopted almost the same methods of recording and calculation of availability data. For a number of years comparable availability and outage data for thermal power have been summarized and published in one report. The purpose of the report now presented for 1990 containing general statistical data is to produce basic information on existing kinds of thermal power in the countries concerned. With this information as a basis additional and more detailed information can be exchanged in direct contacts between bodies in the above mentioned countries according to forms established for that purpose. The report includes fossil steam power, nuclear power and gas turbines. The information is presented in separate diagrams for each country, but for plants burning fossil fuel also in a joint NORDEL statistics with data grouped according to type of fuel used. The grouping of units into classes of capacity has been made in accordance with the classification adopted by UNIPEDE/WEC. Values based on energy have been adopted as basic availability data. The same applied to the preference made in the definitions outlined by UNIPEDE and UNIPEDE/WEC. Some data based on time have been included to make possible comparisons with certain international values and for futher illustration of the performance. (au)

Assessment and statistics of surgically induced astigmatism.

Science.gov (United States)

Naeser, Kristian

2008-05-01

The aim of the thesis was to develop methods for assessment of surgically induced astigmatism (SIA) in individual eyes, and in groups of eyes. The thesis is based on 12 peer-reviewed publications, published over a period of 16 years. In these publications older and contemporary literature was reviewed(1). A new method (the polar system) for analysis of SIA was developed. Multivariate statistical analysis of refractive data was described(2-4). Clinical validation studies were performed. The description of a cylinder surface with polar values and differential geometry was compared. The main results were: refractive data in the form of sphere, cylinder and axis may define an individual patient or data set, but are unsuited for mathematical and statistical analyses(1). The polar value system converts net astigmatisms to orthonormal components in dioptric space. A polar value is the difference in meridional power between two orthogonal meridians(5,6). Any pair of polar values, separated by an arch of 45 degrees, characterizes a net astigmatism completely(7). The two polar values represent the net curvital and net torsional power over the chosen meridian(8). The spherical component is described by the spherical equivalent power. Several clinical studies demonstrated the efficiency of multivariate statistical analysis of refractive data(4,9-11). Polar values and formal differential geometry describe astigmatic surfaces with similar concepts and mathematical functions(8). Other contemporary methods, such as Long's power matrix, Holladay's and Alpins' methods, Zernike(12) and Fourier analyses(8), are correlated to the polar value system. In conclusion, analysis of SIA should be performed with polar values or other contemporary component systems. The study was supported by Statens Sundhedsvidenskabeligt Forskningsråd, Cykelhandler P. Th. Rasmussen og Hustrus Mindelegat, Hotelejer Carl Larsen og Hustru Nicoline Larsens Mindelegat, Landsforeningen til Vaern om Synet

Availability statistics for thermal power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1989-01-01

Denmark, Finland and Sweden have adopted almost the same methods of recording and calculation of availability data. For a number of years comparable availability and outage data for thermal power have been summarized and published in one report. The purpose of the report now presented for 1989 containing general statistical data is to produce basic information on existing kinds of thermal power in the countries concerned. With this information as a basis additional and more detailed information can be exchanged in direct contacts between bodies in the above mentioned countries according to forms established for that purpose. The report includes fossil steam power, nuclear power and gas turbines. The information is presented in separate diagrams for each country, but for plants burning fossil fuel also in a joint NORDEL statistics with data grouped according to type of fuel used. The grouping of units into classes of capacity has been made in accordance with the classification adopted by UNIPEDE/WEC. Values based on energy have been adopted as basic availability data. The same applies to the preference made in the definitions outlined by UNIPEDE and UNIPEDE/WEC. Some data based on time have been included to make possible comparisons with certain international values and for further illustration of the performance. For values given in the report, the definitions in the NORDEL document ''Concepts of Availability for Thermal Power, September 1977'', have been applied. (author)

Prediction of lacking control power in power plants using statistical models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Odgaard, Peter Fogh; Mataji, B.; Stoustrup, Jakob

2007-01-01

Prediction of the performance of plants like power plants is of interest, since the plant operator can use these predictions to optimize the plant production. In this paper the focus is addressed on a special case where a combination of high coal moisture content and a high load limits the possible...... plant load, meaning that the requested plant load cannot be met. The available models are in this case uncertain. Instead statistical methods are used to predict upper and lower uncertainty bounds on the prediction. Two different methods are used. The first relies on statistics of recent prediction...... errors; the second uses operating point depending statistics of prediction errors. Using these methods on the previous mentioned case, it can be concluded that the second method can be used to predict the power plant performance, while the first method has problems predicting the uncertain performance...

Replication unreliability in psychology: elusive phenomena or elusive statistical power?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrizio E Tressoldi

2012-07-01

Full Text Available The focus of this paper is to analyse whether the unreliability of results related to certain controversial psychological phenomena may be a consequence of their low statistical power.Applying the Null Hypothesis Statistical Testing (NHST, still the widest used statistical approach, unreliability derives from the failure to refute the null hypothesis, in particular when exact or quasi-exact replications of experiments are carried out.Taking as example the results of meta-analyses related to four different controversial phenomena, subliminal semantic priming, incubation effect for problem solving, unconscious thought theory, and non-local perception, it was found that, except for semantic priming on categorization, the statistical power to detect the expected effect size of the typical study, is low or very low.The low power in most studies undermines the use of NHST to study phenomena with moderate or low effect sizes.We conclude by providing some suggestions on how to increase the statistical power or use different statistical approaches to help discriminate whether the results obtained may or may not be used to support or to refute the reality of a phenomenon with small effect size.

The power and robustness of maximum LOD score statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Yoo, Y J; Mendell, N R

2008-07-01

The maximum LOD score statistic is extremely powerful for gene mapping when calculated using the correct genetic parameter value. When the mode of genetic transmission is unknown, the maximum of the LOD scores obtained using several genetic parameter values is reported. This latter statistic requires higher critical value than the maximum LOD score statistic calculated from a single genetic parameter value. In this paper, we compare the power of maximum LOD scores based on three fixed sets of genetic parameter values with the power of the LOD score obtained after maximizing over the entire range of genetic parameter values. We simulate family data under nine generating models. For generating models with non-zero phenocopy rates, LOD scores maximized over the entire range of genetic parameters yielded greater power than maximum LOD scores for fixed sets of parameter values with zero phenocopy rates. No maximum LOD score was consistently more powerful than the others for generating models with a zero phenocopy rate. The power loss of the LOD score maximized over the entire range of genetic parameters, relative to the maximum LOD score calculated using the correct genetic parameter value, appeared to be robust to the generating models.

Assessment and statistics of Brazilian hydroelectric power plants: Dam areas versus installed and firm power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Caetano de Souza, Antonio Carlos

2008-01-01

The Brazilian relief, predominantly composed by small mountains and plateaus, contributed to formation of rivers with high amount of falls. With exception to North-eastern Brazil, the climate of this country are rainy, which contributes to maintain water flows high. These elements are essential to a high hydroelectric potential, contributing to the choice of hydroelectric power plants as the main technology of electricity generation in Brazil. Though this is a renewable source, whose utilized resource is free, dams must to be established which generates a high environmental and social impact. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact caused by these dams through the use of environmental indexes. These indexes are ratio formed by installed power with dam area of a hydro power plant, and ratio formed by firm power with this dam area. In this study, the greatest media values were found in South, Southeast, and Northeast regions respectively, and the smallest media values were found in North and Mid-West regions, respectively. The greatest encountered media indexes were also found in dams established in the 1950s. In the last six decades, the smallest indexes were registered by dams established in the 1980s. These indexes could be utilized as important instruments for environmental impact assessments, and could enable a dam to be established that depletes an ecosystem as less as possible. (author)

Statistical Power in Longitudinal Network Studies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stadtfeld, Christoph; Snijders, Tom A. B.; Steglich, Christian; van Duijn, Marijtje

2018-01-01

Longitudinal social network studies may easily suffer from a lack of statistical power. This is the case in particular for studies that simultaneously investigate change of network ties and change of nodal attributes. Such selection and influence studies have become increasingly popular due to the

Statistical tests for power-law cross-correlated processes

Science.gov (United States)

Podobnik, Boris; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang; Zhou, Wei-Xing; Stanley, H. Eugene

2011-12-01

For stationary time series, the cross-covariance and the cross-correlation as functions of time lag n serve to quantify the similarity of two time series. The latter measure is also used to assess whether the cross-correlations are statistically significant. For nonstationary time series, the analogous measures are detrended cross-correlations analysis (DCCA) and the recently proposed detrended cross-correlation coefficient, ρDCCA(T,n), where T is the total length of the time series and n the window size. For ρDCCA(T,n), we numerically calculated the Cauchy inequality -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1. Here we derive -1≤ρDCCA(T,n)≤1 for a standard variance-covariance approach and for a detrending approach. For overlapping windows, we find the range of ρDCCA within which the cross-correlations become statistically significant. For overlapping windows we numerically determine—and for nonoverlapping windows we derive—that the standard deviation of ρDCCA(T,n) tends with increasing T to 1/T. Using ρDCCA(T,n) we show that the Chinese financial market's tendency to follow the U.S. market is extremely weak. We also propose an additional statistical test that can be used to quantify the existence of cross-correlations between two power-law correlated time series.

Power spectra as a diagnostic tool in probing statistical/nonstatistical behavior in unimolecular reactions

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Xiaoyen Y.; Sewell, Thomas D.; Raff, Lionel M.; Thompson, Donald L.

1992-11-01

The possibility of utilizing different types of power spectra obtained from classical trajectories as a diagnostic tool to identify the presence of nonstatistical dynamics is explored by using the unimolecular bond-fission reactions of 1,2-difluoroethane and the 2-chloroethyl radical as test cases. In previous studies, the reaction rates for these systems were calculated by using a variational transition-state theory and classical trajectory methods. A comparison of the results showed that 1,2-difluoroethane is a nonstatistical system, while the 2-chloroethyl radical behaves statistically. Power spectra for these two systems have been generated under various conditions. The characteristics of these spectra are as follows: (1) The spectra for the 2-chloroethyl radical are always broader and more coupled to other modes than is the case for 1,2-difluoroethane. This is true even at very low levels of excitation. (2) When an internal energy near or above the dissociation threshold is initially partitioned into a local C-H stretching mode, the power spectra for 1,2-difluoroethane broaden somewhat, but discrete and somewhat isolated bands are still clearly evident. In contrast, the analogous power spectra for the 2-chloroethyl radical exhibit a near complete absence of isolated bands. The general appearance of the spectrum suggests a very high level of mode-to-mode coupling, large intramolecular vibrational energy redistribution (IVR) rates, and global statistical behavior. (3) The appearance of the power spectrum for the 2-chloroethyl radical is unaltered regardless of whether the initial C-H excitation is in the CH2 or the CH2Cl group. This result also suggests statistical behavior. These results are interpreted to mean that power spectra may be used as a diagnostic tool to assess the statistical character of a system. The presence of a diffuse spectrum exhibiting a nearly complete loss of isolated structures indicates that the dissociation dynamics of the molecule will

Statistical Analysis of the Impact of Wind Power on Market Quantities and Power Flows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Jónsson, Tryggvi; Zugno, Marco

2012-01-01

In view of the increasing penetration of wind power in a number of power systems and markets worldwide, we discuss some of the impacts that wind energy may have on market quantities and cross-border power flows. These impacts are uncovered through statistical analyses of actual market and flow data...... of load and wind power forecasts on Danish and German electricity markets....

Statistical Approaches to Assess Biosimilarity from Analytical Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Burdick, Richard; Coffey, Todd; Gutka, Hiten; Gratzl, Gyöngyi; Conlon, Hugh D; Huang, Chi-Ting; Boyne, Michael; Kuehne, Henriette

2017-01-01

Protein therapeutics have unique critical quality attributes (CQAs) that define their purity, potency, and safety. The analytical methods used to assess CQAs must be able to distinguish clinically meaningful differences in comparator products, and the most important CQAs should be evaluated with the most statistical rigor. High-risk CQA measurements assess the most important attributes that directly impact the clinical mechanism of action or have known implications for safety, while the moderate- to low-risk characteristics may have a lower direct impact and thereby may have a broader range to establish similarity. Statistical equivalence testing is applied for high-risk CQA measurements to establish the degree of similarity (e.g., highly similar fingerprint, highly similar, or similar) of selected attributes. Notably, some high-risk CQAs (e.g., primary sequence or disulfide bonding) are qualitative (e.g., the same as the originator or not the same) and therefore not amenable to equivalence testing. For biosimilars, an important step is the acquisition of a sufficient number of unique originator drug product lots to measure the variability in the originator drug manufacturing process and provide sufficient statistical power for the analytical data comparisons. Together, these analytical evaluations, along with PK/PD and safety data (immunogenicity), provide the data necessary to determine if the totality of the evidence warrants a designation of biosimilarity and subsequent licensure for marketing in the USA. In this paper, a case study approach is used to provide examples of analytical similarity exercises and the appropriateness of statistical approaches for the example data.

Statistical operation of nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauzit, Maurice; Wilmart, Yves

1976-01-01

A comparison of the statistical operating results of nuclear power stations as issued in the literature shows that the values given for availability and the load factor often differ considerably from each other. This may be due to different definitions given to these terms or even to a poor translation from one language into another. A critical analysis of these terms as well as the choice of a parameter from which it is possible to have a quantitative idea of the actual quality of the operation obtained is proposed. The second section gives, on an homogenous basis and from the results supplied by 83 nuclear power stations now in operation, a statistical analysis of their operating results: in particular, the two light water lines, during 1975, as well as the evolution in terms of age, of the units or the starting conditions of the units during their first two operating years. Test values thus obtained are compared also to those taken 'a priori' as hypothesis in some economic studies [fr

Assessment Methods in Statistical Education An International Perspective

CERN Document Server

Bidgood, Penelope; Jolliffe, Flavia

2010-01-01

This book is a collaboration from leading figures in statistical education and is designed primarily for academic audiences involved in teaching statistics and mathematics. The book is divided in four sections: (1) Assessment using real-world problems, (2) Assessment statistical thinking, (3) Individual assessment (4) Successful assessment strategies.

Statistical studies of powerful extragalactic radio sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Macklin, J T

1981-01-01

This dissertation is mainly about the use of efficient statistical tests to study the properties of powerful extragalactic radio sources. Most of the analysis is based on subsets of a sample of 166 bright (3CR) sources selected at 178 MHz. The first chapter is introductory and it is followed by three on the misalignment and symmetry of double radio sources. The properties of nuclear components in extragalactic sources are discussed in the next chapter, using statistical tests which make efficient use of upper limits, often the only available information on the flux density from the nuclear component. Multifrequency observations of four 3CR sources are presented in the next chapter. The penultimate chapter is about the analysis of correlations involving more than two variables. The Spearman partial rank correlation coefficient is shown to be the most powerful test available which is based on non-parametric statistics. It is therefore used to study the dependences of the properties of sources on their size at constant redshift, and the results are interpreted in terms of source evolution. Correlations of source properties with luminosity and redshift are then examined.

Low statistical power in biomedical science: a review of three human research domains

Science.gov (United States)

Dumas-Mallet, Estelle; Button, Katherine S.; Boraud, Thomas; Gonon, Francois

2017-01-01

Studies with low statistical power increase the likelihood that a statistically significant finding represents a false positive result. We conducted a review of meta-analyses of studies investigating the association of biological, environmental or cognitive parameters with neurological, psychiatric and somatic diseases, excluding treatment studies, in order to estimate the average statistical power across these domains. Taking the effect size indicated by a meta-analysis as the best estimate of the likely true effect size, and assuming a threshold for declaring statistical significance of 5%, we found that approximately 50% of studies have statistical power in the 0–10% or 11–20% range, well below the minimum of 80% that is often considered conventional. Studies with low statistical power appear to be common in the biomedical sciences, at least in the specific subject areas captured by our search strategy. However, we also observe evidence that this depends in part on research methodology, with candidate gene studies showing very low average power and studies using cognitive/behavioural measures showing high average power. This warrants further investigation. PMID:28386409

Statistical methods in personality assessment research.

Science.gov (United States)

Schinka, J A; LaLone, L; Broeckel, J A

1997-06-01

Emerging models of personality structure and advances in the measurement of personality and psychopathology suggest that research in personality and personality assessment has entered a stage of advanced development, in this article we examine whether researchers in these areas have taken advantage of new and evolving statistical procedures. We conducted a review of articles published in the Journal of Personality, Assessment during the past 5 years. Of the 449 articles that included some form of data analysis, 12.7% used only descriptive statistics, most employed only univariate statistics, and fewer than 10% used multivariate methods of data analysis. We discuss the cost of using limited statistical methods, the possible reasons for the apparent reluctance to employ advanced statistical procedures, and potential solutions to this technical shortcoming.

Statistical modelling of space-time processes with application to wind power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lenzi, Amanda

. This thesis aims at contributing to the wind power literature by building and evaluating new statistical techniques for producing forecasts at multiple locations and lead times using spatio-temporal information. By exploring the features of a rich portfolio of wind farms in western Denmark, we investigate...... propose spatial models for predicting wind power generation at two different time scales: for annual average wind power generation and for a high temporal resolution (typically wind power averages over 15-min time steps). In both cases, we use a spatial hierarchical statistical model in which spatial...

Statistical reliability assessment of UT round-robin test data for piping welds

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H.M.; Park, I.K.; Park, U.S.; Park, Y.W.; Kang, S.C.; Lee, J.H.

2004-01-01

Ultrasonic NDE is one of important technologies in the life-time maintenance of nuclear power plant. Ultrasonic inspection system is consisted of the operator, equipment and procedure. The reliability of ultrasonic inspection system is affected by its ability. The performance demonstration round robin was conducted to quantify the capability of ultrasonic inspection for in-service. Several teams employed procedures that met or exceeded with ASME sec. XI code requirements detected the piping of nuclear power plant with various cracks to evaluate the capability of detection and sizing. In this paper, the statistical reliability assessment of ultrasonic nondestructive inspection data using probability of detection (POD) is presented. The result of POD using logistic model was useful to the reliability assessment for the NDE hit or miss data. (orig.)

When Mathematics and Statistics Collide in Assessment Tasks

Science.gov (United States)

Bargagliotti, Anna; Groth, Randall

2016-01-01

Because the disciplines of mathematics and statistics are naturally intertwined, designing assessment questions that disentangle mathematical and statistical reasoning can be challenging. We explore the writing statistics assessment tasks that take into consideration potential mathematical reasoning they may inadvertently activate.

Power quality assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fathi, H.M.E.

2012-01-01

The electrical power systems are exposed to different types of power quality disturbances problems. Assessment of power quality is necessary for maintaining accurate operation of sensitive equipment's especially for nuclear installations, it also ensures that unnecessary energy losses in a power system are kept at a minimum which lead to more profits. With advanced in technology growing of industrial / commercial facilities in many region. Power quality problems have been a major concern among engineers; particularly in an industrial environment, where there are many large-scale type of equipment. Thus, it would be useful to investigate and mitigate the power quality problems. Assessment of Power quality requires the identification of any anomalous behavior on a power system, which adversely affects the normal operation of electrical or electronic equipment. The choice of monitoring equipment in a survey is also important to ascertain a solution to these power quality problems. A power quality assessment involves gathering data resources; analyzing the data (with reference to power quality standards); then, if problems exist, recommendation of mitigation techniques must be considered. The main objective of the present work is to investigate and mitigate of power quality problems in nuclear installations. Normally electrical power is supplied to the installations via two sources to keep good reliability. Each source is designed to carry the full load. The Assessment of power quality was performed at the nuclear installations for both sources at different operation conditions. The thesis begins with a discussion of power quality definitions and the results of previous studies in power quality monitoring. The assessment determines that one source of electricity was deemed to have relatively good power quality; there were several disturbances, which exceeded the thresholds. Among of them are fifth harmonic, voltage swell, overvoltage and flicker. While the second

Statistical aspects of fish stock assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Berg, Casper Willestofte

for stock assessment by application of state-of-the-art statistical methodology. The main contributions are presented in the form of six research papers. The major part of the thesis deals with age-structured assessment models, which is the most common approach. Conversion from length to age distributions...... statistical aspects of fish stocks assessment, which includes topics such as time series analysis, generalized additive models (GAMs), and non-linear state-space/mixed models capable of handling missing data and a high number of latent states and parameters. The aim is to improve the existing methods...

The issue of statistical power for overall model fit in evaluating structural equation models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard HERMIDA

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Statistical power is an important concept for psychological research. However, examining the power of a structural equation model (SEM is rare in practice. This article provides an accessible review of the concept of statistical power for the Root Mean Square Error of Approximation (RMSEA index of overall model fit in structural equation modeling. By way of example, we examine the current state of power in the literature by reviewing studies in top Industrial-Organizational (I/O Psychology journals using SEMs. Results indicate that in many studies, power is very low, which implies acceptance of invalid models. Additionally, we examined methodological situations which may have an influence on statistical power of SEMs. Results showed that power varies significantly as a function of model type and whether or not the model is the main model for the study. Finally, results indicated that power is significantly related to model fit statistics used in evaluating SEMs. The results from this quantitative review imply that researchers should be more vigilant with respect to power in structural equation modeling. We therefore conclude by offering methodological best practices to increase confidence in the interpretation of structural equation modeling results with respect to statistical power issues.

The relation between statistical power and inference in fMRI.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Henk R Cremers

Full Text Available Statistically underpowered studies can result in experimental failure even when all other experimental considerations have been addressed impeccably. In fMRI the combination of a large number of dependent variables, a relatively small number of observations (subjects, and a need to correct for multiple comparisons can decrease statistical power dramatically. This problem has been clearly addressed yet remains controversial-especially in regards to the expected effect sizes in fMRI, and especially for between-subjects effects such as group comparisons and brain-behavior correlations. We aimed to clarify the power problem by considering and contrasting two simulated scenarios of such possible brain-behavior correlations: weak diffuse effects and strong localized effects. Sampling from these scenarios shows that, particularly in the weak diffuse scenario, common sample sizes (n = 20-30 display extremely low statistical power, poorly represent the actual effects in the full sample, and show large variation on subsequent replications. Empirical data from the Human Connectome Project resembles the weak diffuse scenario much more than the localized strong scenario, which underscores the extent of the power problem for many studies. Possible solutions to the power problem include increasing the sample size, using less stringent thresholds, or focusing on a region-of-interest. However, these approaches are not always feasible and some have major drawbacks. The most prominent solutions that may help address the power problem include model-based (multivariate prediction methods and meta-analyses with related synthesis-oriented approaches.

Statistical utility theory for comparison of nuclear versus fossil power plant alternatives

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Garribba, S.; Ovi, A.

1977-01-01

A statistical formulation of utility theory is developed for decision problems concerned with the choice among alternative strategies in electric energy production. Four alternatives are considered: nuclear power, fossil power, solar energy, and conservation policy. Attention is focused on a public electric utility thought of as a rational decision-maker. A framework for decisions is then suggested where the admissible strategies and their possible consequences represent the information available to the decision-maker. Once the objectives of the decision process are assessed, consequences can be quantified in terms of measures of effectiveness. Maximum expected utility is the criterion of choice among alternatives. Steps toward expected values are the evaluation of the multidimensional utility function and the assessment of subjective probabilities for consequences. In this respect, the multiplicative form of the utility function seems less restrictive than the additive form and almost as manageable to implement. Probabilities are expressed through subjective marginal probability density functions given at a discrete number of points. The final stage of the decision model is to establish the value of each strategy. To this scope, expected utilities are computed and scaled. The result is that nuclear power offers the best alternative. 8 figures, 9 tables, 32 references

Statistic method of research reactors maximum permissible power calculation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grosheva, N.A.; Kirsanov, G.A.; Konoplev, K.A.; Chmshkyan, D.V.

1998-01-01

The technique for calculating maximum permissible power of a research reactor at which the probability of the thermal-process accident does not exceed the specified value, is presented. The statistical method is used for the calculations. It is regarded that the determining function related to the reactor safety is the known function of the reactor power and many statistically independent values which list includes the reactor process parameters, geometrical characteristics of the reactor core and fuel elements, as well as random factors connected with the reactor specific features. Heat flux density or temperature is taken as a limiting factor. The program realization of the method discussed is briefly described. The results of calculating the PIK reactor margin coefficients for different probabilities of the thermal-process accident are considered as an example. It is shown that the probability of an accident with fuel element melting in hot zone is lower than 10 -8 1 per year for the reactor rated power [ru

The power of statistical tests using field trial count data of non-target organisms in enviromental risk assessment of genetically modified plants

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voet, van der H.; Goedhart, P.W.

2015-01-01

Publications on power analyses for field trial count data comparing transgenic and conventional crops have reported widely varying requirements for the replication needed to obtain statistical tests with adequate power. These studies are critically reviewed and complemented with a new simulation

Monte Carlo based statistical power analysis for mediation models: methods and software.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhiyong

2014-12-01

The existing literature on statistical power analysis for mediation models often assumes data normality and is based on a less powerful Sobel test instead of the more powerful bootstrap test. This study proposes to estimate statistical power to detect mediation effects on the basis of the bootstrap method through Monte Carlo simulation. Nonnormal data with excessive skewness and kurtosis are allowed in the proposed method. A free R package called bmem is developed to conduct the power analysis discussed in this study. Four examples, including a simple mediation model, a multiple-mediator model with a latent mediator, a multiple-group mediation model, and a longitudinal mediation model, are provided to illustrate the proposed method.

Statistical power as a function of Cronbach alpha of instrument questionnaire items.

Science.gov (United States)

Heo, Moonseong; Kim, Namhee; Faith, Myles S

2015-10-14

In countless number of clinical trials, measurements of outcomes rely on instrument questionnaire items which however often suffer measurement error problems which in turn affect statistical power of study designs. The Cronbach alpha or coefficient alpha, here denoted by C(α), can be used as a measure of internal consistency of parallel instrument items that are developed to measure a target unidimensional outcome construct. Scale score for the target construct is often represented by the sum of the item scores. However, power functions based on C(α) have been lacking for various study designs. We formulate a statistical model for parallel items to derive power functions as a function of C(α) under several study designs. To this end, we assume fixed true score variance assumption as opposed to usual fixed total variance assumption. That assumption is critical and practically relevant to show that smaller measurement errors are inversely associated with higher inter-item correlations, and thus that greater C(α) is associated with greater statistical power. We compare the derived theoretical statistical power with empirical power obtained through Monte Carlo simulations for the following comparisons: one-sample comparison of pre- and post-treatment mean differences, two-sample comparison of pre-post mean differences between groups, and two-sample comparison of mean differences between groups. It is shown that C(α) is the same as a test-retest correlation of the scale scores of parallel items, which enables testing significance of C(α). Closed-form power functions and samples size determination formulas are derived in terms of C(α), for all of the aforementioned comparisons. Power functions are shown to be an increasing function of C(α), regardless of comparison of interest. The derived power functions are well validated by simulation studies that show that the magnitudes of theoretical power are virtually identical to those of the empirical power. Regardless

Statistical reliability assessment of software-based systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Korhonen, J.; Pulkkinen, U.; Haapanen, P.

1997-01-01

Plant vendors nowadays propose software-based systems even for the most critical safety functions. The reliability estimation of safety critical software-based systems is difficult since the conventional modeling techniques do not necessarily apply to the analysis of these systems, and the quantification seems to be impossible. Due to lack of operational experience and due to the nature of software faults, the conventional reliability estimation methods can not be applied. New methods are therefore needed for the safety assessment of software-based systems. In the research project Programmable automation systems in nuclear power plants (OHA), financed together by the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK), the Ministry of Trade and Industry and the Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT), various safety assessment methods and tools for software based systems are developed and evaluated. This volume in the OHA-report series deals with the statistical reliability assessment of software based systems on the basis of dynamic test results and qualitative evidence from the system design process. Other reports to be published later on in OHA-report series will handle the diversity requirements in safety critical software-based systems, generation of test data from operational profiles and handling of programmable automation in plant PSA-studies. (orig.) (25 refs.)

In vivo Comet assay--statistical analysis and power calculations of mice testicular cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Hansen, Merete Kjær; Sharma, Anoop Kumar; Dybdahl, Marianne; Boberg, Julie; Kulahci, Murat

2014-11-01

The in vivo Comet assay is a sensitive method for evaluating DNA damage. A recurrent concern is how to analyze the data appropriately and efficiently. A popular approach is to summarize the raw data into a summary statistic prior to the statistical analysis. However, consensus on which summary statistic to use has yet to be reached. Another important consideration concerns the assessment of proper sample sizes in the design of Comet assay studies. This study aims to identify a statistic suitably summarizing the % tail DNA of mice testicular samples in Comet assay studies. A second aim is to provide curves for this statistic outlining the number of animals and gels to use. The current study was based on 11 compounds administered via oral gavage in three doses to male mice: CAS no. 110-26-9, CAS no. 512-56-1, CAS no. 111873-33-7, CAS no. 79-94-7, CAS no. 115-96-8, CAS no. 598-55-0, CAS no. 636-97-5, CAS no. 85-28-9, CAS no. 13674-87-8, CAS no. 43100-38-5 and CAS no. 60965-26-6. Testicular cells were examined using the alkaline version of the Comet assay and the DNA damage was quantified as % tail DNA using a fully automatic scoring system. From the raw data 23 summary statistics were examined. A linear mixed-effects model was fitted to the summarized data and the estimated variance components were used to generate power curves as a function of sample size. The statistic that most appropriately summarized the within-sample distributions was the median of the log-transformed data, as it most consistently conformed to the assumptions of the statistical model. Power curves for 1.5-, 2-, and 2.5-fold changes of the highest dose group compared to the control group when 50 and 100 cells were scored per gel are provided to aid in the design of future Comet assay studies on testicular cells. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Self-assessed performance improves statistical fusion of image labels

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bryan, Frederick W., E-mail: frederick.w.bryan@vanderbilt.edu; Xu, Zhoubing; Asman, Andrew J.; Allen, Wade M. [Electrical Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37235 (United States); Reich, Daniel S. [Translational Neuroradiology Unit, National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, Maryland 20892 (United States); Landman, Bennett A. [Electrical Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37235 (United States); Biomedical Engineering, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37235 (United States); and Radiology and Radiological Sciences, Vanderbilt University, Nashville, Tennessee 37235 (United States)

2014-03-15

Purpose: Expert manual labeling is the gold standard for image segmentation, but this process is difficult, time-consuming, and prone to inter-individual differences. While fully automated methods have successfully targeted many anatomies, automated methods have not yet been developed for numerous essential structures (e.g., the internal structure of the spinal cord as seen on magnetic resonance imaging). Collaborative labeling is a new paradigm that offers a robust alternative that may realize both the throughput of automation and the guidance of experts. Yet, distributing manual labeling expertise across individuals and sites introduces potential human factors concerns (e.g., training, software usability) and statistical considerations (e.g., fusion of information, assessment of confidence, bias) that must be further explored. During the labeling process, it is simple to ask raters to self-assess the confidence of their labels, but this is rarely done and has not been previously quantitatively studied. Herein, the authors explore the utility of self-assessment in relation to automated assessment of rater performance in the context of statistical fusion. Methods: The authors conducted a study of 66 volumes manually labeled by 75 minimally trained human raters recruited from the university undergraduate population. Raters were given 15 min of training during which they were shown examples of correct segmentation, and the online segmentation tool was demonstrated. The volumes were labeled 2D slice-wise, and the slices were unordered. A self-assessed quality metric was produced by raters for each slice by marking a confidence bar superimposed on the slice. Volumes produced by both voting and statistical fusion algorithms were compared against a set of expert segmentations of the same volumes. Results: Labels for 8825 distinct slices were obtained. Simple majority voting resulted in statistically poorer performance than voting weighted by self-assessed performance

Self-assessed performance improves statistical fusion of image labels

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bryan, Frederick W.; Xu, Zhoubing; Asman, Andrew J.; Allen, Wade M.; Reich, Daniel S.; Landman, Bennett A.

2014-01-01

Purpose: Expert manual labeling is the gold standard for image segmentation, but this process is difficult, time-consuming, and prone to inter-individual differences. While fully automated methods have successfully targeted many anatomies, automated methods have not yet been developed for numerous essential structures (e.g., the internal structure of the spinal cord as seen on magnetic resonance imaging). Collaborative labeling is a new paradigm that offers a robust alternative that may realize both the throughput of automation and the guidance of experts. Yet, distributing manual labeling expertise across individuals and sites introduces potential human factors concerns (e.g., training, software usability) and statistical considerations (e.g., fusion of information, assessment of confidence, bias) that must be further explored. During the labeling process, it is simple to ask raters to self-assess the confidence of their labels, but this is rarely done and has not been previously quantitatively studied. Herein, the authors explore the utility of self-assessment in relation to automated assessment of rater performance in the context of statistical fusion. Methods: The authors conducted a study of 66 volumes manually labeled by 75 minimally trained human raters recruited from the university undergraduate population. Raters were given 15 min of training during which they were shown examples of correct segmentation, and the online segmentation tool was demonstrated. The volumes were labeled 2D slice-wise, and the slices were unordered. A self-assessed quality metric was produced by raters for each slice by marking a confidence bar superimposed on the slice. Volumes produced by both voting and statistical fusion algorithms were compared against a set of expert segmentations of the same volumes. Results: Labels for 8825 distinct slices were obtained. Simple majority voting resulted in statistically poorer performance than voting weighted by self-assessed performance

Evaluating the statistical power of DNA-based identification, exemplified by 'The missing grandchildren of Argentina'.

Science.gov (United States)

Kling, Daniel; Egeland, Thore; Piñero, Mariana Herrera; Vigeland, Magnus Dehli

2017-11-01

Methods and implementations of DNA-based identification are well established in several forensic contexts. However, assessing the statistical power of these methods has been largely overlooked, except in the simplest cases. In this paper we outline general methods for such power evaluation, and apply them to a large set of family reunification cases, where the objective is to decide whether a person of interest (POI) is identical to the missing person (MP) in a family, based on the DNA profile of the POI and available family members. As such, this application closely resembles database searching and disaster victim identification (DVI). If parents or children of the MP are available, they will typically provide sufficient statistical evidence to settle the case. However, if one must resort to more distant relatives, it is not a priori obvious that a reliable conclusion is likely to be reached. In these cases power evaluation can be highly valuable, for instance in the recruitment of additional family members. To assess the power in an identification case, we advocate the combined use of two statistics: the Probability of Exclusion, and the Probability of Exceedance. The former is the probability that the genotypes of a random, unrelated person are incompatible with the available family data. If this is close to 1, it is likely that a conclusion will be achieved regarding general relatedness, but not necessarily the specific relationship. To evaluate the ability to recognize a true match, we use simulations to estimate exceedance probabilities, i.e. the probability that the likelihood ratio will exceed a given threshold, assuming that the POI is indeed the MP. All simulations are done conditionally on available family data. Such conditional simulations have a long history in medical linkage analysis, but to our knowledge this is the first systematic forensic genetics application. Also, for forensic markers mutations cannot be ignored and therefore current models and

GWAPower: a statistical power calculation software for genome-wide association studies with quantitative traits.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Sheng; Wang, Shengchu; Chen, Chia-Cheng; Lan, Lan

2011-01-21

In designing genome-wide association (GWA) studies it is important to calculate statistical power. General statistical power calculation procedures for quantitative measures often require information concerning summary statistics of distributions such as mean and variance. However, with genetic studies, the effect size of quantitative traits is traditionally expressed as heritability, a quantity defined as the amount of phenotypic variation in the population that can be ascribed to the genetic variants among individuals. Heritability is hard to transform into summary statistics. Therefore, general power calculation procedures cannot be used directly in GWA studies. The development of appropriate statistical methods and a user-friendly software package to address this problem would be welcomed. This paper presents GWAPower, a statistical software package of power calculation designed for GWA studies with quantitative traits, where genetic effect is defined as heritability. Based on several popular one-degree-of-freedom genetic models, this method avoids the need to specify the non-centrality parameter of the F-distribution under the alternative hypothesis. Therefore, it can use heritability information directly without approximation. In GWAPower, the power calculation can be easily adjusted for adding covariates and linkage disequilibrium information. An example is provided to illustrate GWAPower, followed by discussions. GWAPower is a user-friendly free software package for calculating statistical power based on heritability in GWA studies with quantitative traits. The software is freely available at: http://dl.dropbox.com/u/10502931/GWAPower.zip.

A Framework for Assessing High School Students' Statistical Reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Chan, Shiau Wei; Ismail, Zaleha; Sumintono, Bambang

2016-01-01

Based on a synthesis of literature, earlier studies, analyses and observations on high school students, this study developed an initial framework for assessing students' statistical reasoning about descriptive statistics. Framework descriptors were established across five levels of statistical reasoning and four key constructs. The former consisted of idiosyncratic reasoning, verbal reasoning, transitional reasoning, procedural reasoning, and integrated process reasoning. The latter include describing data, organizing and reducing data, representing data, and analyzing and interpreting data. In contrast to earlier studies, this initial framework formulated a complete and coherent statistical reasoning framework. A statistical reasoning assessment tool was then constructed from this initial framework. The tool was administered to 10 tenth-grade students in a task-based interview. The initial framework was refined, and the statistical reasoning assessment tool was revised. The ten students then participated in the second task-based interview, and the data obtained were used to validate the framework. The findings showed that the students' statistical reasoning levels were consistent across the four constructs, and this result confirmed the framework's cohesion. Developed to contribute to statistics education, this newly developed statistical reasoning framework provides a guide for planning learning goals and designing instruction and assessments.

Forecasting winds over nuclear power plants statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marais, Ch.

1997-01-01

In the event of an accident at nuclear power plant, it is essential to forecast the wind velocity at the level where the efflux occurs (about 100 m). At present meteorologists refine the wind forecast from the coarse grid of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. The purpose of this study is to improve the forecasts by developing a statistical adaptation method which corrects the NWP forecasts by using statistical comparisons between wind forecasts and observations. The Multiple Linear Regression method is used here to forecast the 100 m wind at 12 and 24 hours range for three Electricite de France (EDF) sites. It turns out that this approach gives better forecasts than the NWP model alone and is worthy of operational use. (author)

Causality in Statistical Power: Isomorphic Properties of Measurement, Research Design, Effect Size, and Sample Size

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Eric Heidel

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Statistical power is the ability to detect a significant effect, given that the effect actually exists in a population. Like most statistical concepts, statistical power tends to induce cognitive dissonance in hepatology researchers. However, planning for statistical power by an a priori sample size calculation is of paramount importance when designing a research study. There are five specific empirical components that make up an a priori sample size calculation: the scale of measurement of the outcome, the research design, the magnitude of the effect size, the variance of the effect size, and the sample size. A framework grounded in the phenomenon of isomorphism, or interdependencies amongst different constructs with similar forms, will be presented to understand the isomorphic effects of decisions made on each of the five aforementioned components of statistical power.

Statistical power analyses using G*Power 3.1: tests for correlation and regression analyses.

Science.gov (United States)

Faul, Franz; Erdfelder, Edgar; Buchner, Axel; Lang, Albert-Georg

2009-11-01

G*Power is a free power analysis program for a variety of statistical tests. We present extensions and improvements of the version introduced by Faul, Erdfelder, Lang, and Buchner (2007) in the domain of correlation and regression analyses. In the new version, we have added procedures to analyze the power of tests based on (1) single-sample tetrachoric correlations, (2) comparisons of dependent correlations, (3) bivariate linear regression, (4) multiple linear regression based on the random predictor model, (5) logistic regression, and (6) Poisson regression. We describe these new features and provide a brief introduction to their scope and handling.

DESIGNING ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING DATABASES FOR STATISTIC ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

Databases designed for statistical analyses have characteristics that distinguish them from databases intended for general use. EMAP uses a probabilistic sampling design to collect data to produce statistical assessments of environmental conditions. In addition to supporting the ...

Statistical power of model selection strategies for genome-wide association studies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zheyang Wu

2009-07-01

Full Text Available Genome-wide association studies (GWAS aim to identify genetic variants related to diseases by examining the associations between phenotypes and hundreds of thousands of genotyped markers. Because many genes are potentially involved in common diseases and a large number of markers are analyzed, it is crucial to devise an effective strategy to identify truly associated variants that have individual and/or interactive effects, while controlling false positives at the desired level. Although a number of model selection methods have been proposed in the literature, including marginal search, exhaustive search, and forward search, their relative performance has only been evaluated through limited simulations due to the lack of an analytical approach to calculating the power of these methods. This article develops a novel statistical approach for power calculation, derives accurate formulas for the power of different model selection strategies, and then uses the formulas to evaluate and compare these strategies in genetic model spaces. In contrast to previous studies, our theoretical framework allows for random genotypes, correlations among test statistics, and a false-positive control based on GWAS practice. After the accuracy of our analytical results is validated through simulations, they are utilized to systematically evaluate and compare the performance of these strategies in a wide class of genetic models. For a specific genetic model, our results clearly reveal how different factors, such as effect size, allele frequency, and interaction, jointly affect the statistical power of each strategy. An example is provided for the application of our approach to empirical research. The statistical approach used in our derivations is general and can be employed to address the model selection problems in other random predictor settings. We have developed an R package markerSearchPower to implement our formulas, which can be downloaded from the

Power generation statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kangas, H.

2001-01-01

The frost in February increased the power demand in Finland significantly. The total power consumption in Finland during January-February 2001 was about 4% higher than a year before. In January 2001 the average temperature in Finland was only about - 4 deg C, which is nearly 2 degrees higher than in 2000 and about 6 degrees higher than long term average. Power demand in January was slightly less than 7.9 TWh, being about 0.5% less than in 2000. The power consumption in Finland during the past 12 months exceeded 79.3 TWh, which is less than 2% higher than during the previous 12 months. In February 2001 the average temperature was - 10 deg C, which was about 5 degrees lower than in February 2000. Because of this the power consumption in February 2001 increased by 5%. Power consumption in February was 7.5 TWh. The maximum hourly output of power plants in Finland was 13310 MW. Power consumption of Finnish households in February 2001 was about 10% higher than in February 2000, and in industry the increase was nearly zero. The utilization rate in forest industry in February 2001 decreased from the value of February 2000 by 5%, being only about 89%. The power consumption of the past 12 months (Feb. 2000 - Feb. 2001) was 79.6 TWh. Generation of hydroelectric power in Finland during January - February 2001 was 10% higher than a year before. The generation of hydroelectric power in Jan. - Feb. 2001 was nearly 2.7 TWh, corresponding to 17% of the power demand in Finland. The output of hydroelectric power in Finland during the past 12 months was 14.7 TWh. The increase from the previous 12 months was 17% corresponding to over 18% of the power demand in Finland. Wind power generation in Jan. - Feb. 2001 was exceeded slightly 10 GWh, while in 2000 the corresponding output was 20 GWh. The degree of utilization of Finnish nuclear power plants in Jan. - Feb. 2001 was high. The output of these plants was 3.8 TWh, being about 1% less than in Jan. - Feb. 2000. The main cause for the

A statistical model of uplink inter-cell interference with slow and fast power control mechanisms

KAUST Repository

Tabassum, Hina; Yilmaz, Ferkan; Dawy, Zaher; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2013-01-01

Uplink power control is in essence an interference mitigation technique that aims at minimizing the inter-cell interference (ICI) in cellular networks by reducing the transmit power levels of the mobile users while maintaining their target received signal quality levels at base stations. Power control mechanisms directly impact the interference dynamics and, thus, affect the overall achievable capacity and consumed power in cellular networks. Due to the stochastic nature of wireless channels and mobile users' locations, it is important to derive theoretical models for ICI that can capture the impact of design alternatives related to power control mechanisms. To this end, we derive and verify a novel statistical model for uplink ICI in Generalized-K composite fading environments as a function of various slow and fast power control mechanisms. The derived expressions are then utilized to quantify numerically key network performance metrics that include average resource fairness, average reduction in power consumption, and ergodic capacity. The accuracy of the derived expressions is validated via Monte-Carlo simulations. Results are generated for multiple network scenarios, and insights are extracted to assess various power control mechanisms as a function of system parameters. © 1972-2012 IEEE.

A statistical model of uplink inter-cell interference with slow and fast power control mechanisms

KAUST Repository

Tabassum, Hina

2013-09-01

Uplink power control is in essence an interference mitigation technique that aims at minimizing the inter-cell interference (ICI) in cellular networks by reducing the transmit power levels of the mobile users while maintaining their target received signal quality levels at base stations. Power control mechanisms directly impact the interference dynamics and, thus, affect the overall achievable capacity and consumed power in cellular networks. Due to the stochastic nature of wireless channels and mobile users\\' locations, it is important to derive theoretical models for ICI that can capture the impact of design alternatives related to power control mechanisms. To this end, we derive and verify a novel statistical model for uplink ICI in Generalized-K composite fading environments as a function of various slow and fast power control mechanisms. The derived expressions are then utilized to quantify numerically key network performance metrics that include average resource fairness, average reduction in power consumption, and ergodic capacity. The accuracy of the derived expressions is validated via Monte-Carlo simulations. Results are generated for multiple network scenarios, and insights are extracted to assess various power control mechanisms as a function of system parameters. © 1972-2012 IEEE.

Statistical assessment of the learning curves of health technologies.

Science.gov (United States)

Ramsay, C R; Grant, A M; Wallace, S A; Garthwaite, P H; Monk, A F; Russell, I T

2001-01-01

(1) To describe systematically studies that directly assessed the learning curve effect of health technologies. (2) Systematically to identify 'novel' statistical techniques applied to learning curve data in other fields, such as psychology and manufacturing. (3) To test these statistical techniques in data sets from studies of varying designs to assess health technologies in which learning curve effects are known to exist. METHODS - STUDY SELECTION (HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW): For a study to be included, it had to include a formal analysis of the learning curve of a health technology using a graphical, tabular or statistical technique. METHODS - STUDY SELECTION (NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH): For a study to be included, it had to include a formal assessment of a learning curve using a statistical technique that had not been identified in the previous search. METHODS - DATA SOURCES: Six clinical and 16 non-clinical biomedical databases were searched. A limited amount of handsearching and scanning of reference lists was also undertaken. METHODS - DATA EXTRACTION (HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE REVIEW): A number of study characteristics were abstracted from the papers such as study design, study size, number of operators and the statistical method used. METHODS - DATA EXTRACTION (NON-HEALTH TECHNOLOGY ASSESSMENT LITERATURE SEARCH): The new statistical techniques identified were categorised into four subgroups of increasing complexity: exploratory data analysis; simple series data analysis; complex data structure analysis, generic techniques. METHODS - TESTING OF STATISTICAL METHODS: Some of the statistical methods identified in the systematic searches for single (simple) operator series data and for multiple (complex) operator series data were illustrated and explored using three data sets. The first was a case series of 190 consecutive laparoscopic fundoplication procedures performed by a single surgeon; the second

Statistical Power of Psychological Research: What Have We Gained in 20 Years?

Science.gov (United States)

Rossi, Joseph S.

1990-01-01

Calculated power for 6,155 statistical tests in 221 journal articles published in 1982 volumes of "Journal of Abnormal Psychology,""Journal of Consulting and Clinical Psychology," and "Journal of Personality and Social Psychology." Power to detect small, medium, and large effects was .17, .57, and .83, respectively. Concluded that power of…

Statistical assessment of numerous Monte Carlo tallies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kiedrowski, Brian C.; Solomon, Clell J.

2011-01-01

Four tests are developed to assess the statistical reliability of collections of tallies that number in thousands or greater. To this end, the relative-variance density function is developed and its moments are studied using simplified, non-transport models. The statistical tests are performed upon the results of MCNP calculations of three different transport test problems and appear to show that the tests are appropriate indicators of global statistical quality. (author)

Development and testing of improved statistical wind power forecasting methods.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mendes, J.; Bessa, R.J.; Keko, H.; Sumaili, J.; Miranda, V.; Ferreira, C.; Gama, J.; Botterud, A.; Zhou, Z.; Wang, J. (Decision and Information Sciences); (INESC Porto)

2011-12-06

Wind power forecasting (WPF) provides important inputs to power system operators and electricity market participants. It is therefore not surprising that WPF has attracted increasing interest within the electric power industry. In this report, we document our research on improving statistical WPF algorithms for point, uncertainty, and ramp forecasting. Below, we provide a brief introduction to the research presented in the following chapters. For a detailed overview of the state-of-the-art in wind power forecasting, we refer to [1]. Our related work on the application of WPF in operational decisions is documented in [2]. Point forecasts of wind power are highly dependent on the training criteria used in the statistical algorithms that are used to convert weather forecasts and observational data to a power forecast. In Chapter 2, we explore the application of information theoretic learning (ITL) as opposed to the classical minimum square error (MSE) criterion for point forecasting. In contrast to the MSE criterion, ITL criteria do not assume a Gaussian distribution of the forecasting errors. We investigate to what extent ITL criteria yield better results. In addition, we analyze time-adaptive training algorithms and how they enable WPF algorithms to cope with non-stationary data and, thus, to adapt to new situations without requiring additional offline training of the model. We test the new point forecasting algorithms on two wind farms located in the U.S. Midwest. Although there have been advancements in deterministic WPF, a single-valued forecast cannot provide information on the dispersion of observations around the predicted value. We argue that it is essential to generate, together with (or as an alternative to) point forecasts, a representation of the wind power uncertainty. Wind power uncertainty representation can take the form of probabilistic forecasts (e.g., probability density function, quantiles), risk indices (e.g., prediction risk index) or scenarios

A statistical simulation model for field testing of non-target organisms in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants.

Science.gov (United States)

Goedhart, Paul W; van der Voet, Hilko; Baldacchino, Ferdinando; Arpaia, Salvatore

2014-04-01

Genetic modification of plants may result in unintended effects causing potentially adverse effects on the environment. A comparative safety assessment is therefore required by authorities, such as the European Food Safety Authority, in which the genetically modified plant is compared with its conventional counterpart. Part of the environmental risk assessment is a comparative field experiment in which the effect on non-target organisms is compared. Statistical analysis of such trials come in two flavors: difference testing and equivalence testing. It is important to know the statistical properties of these, for example, the power to detect environmental change of a given magnitude, before the start of an experiment. Such prospective power analysis can best be studied by means of a statistical simulation model. This paper describes a general framework for simulating data typically encountered in environmental risk assessment of genetically modified plants. The simulation model, available as Supplementary Material, can be used to generate count data having different statistical distributions possibly with excess-zeros. In addition the model employs completely randomized or randomized block experiments, can be used to simulate single or multiple trials across environments, enables genotype by environment interaction by adding random variety effects, and finally includes repeated measures in time following a constant, linear or quadratic pattern in time possibly with some form of autocorrelation. The model also allows to add a set of reference varieties to the GM plants and its comparator to assess the natural variation which can then be used to set limits of concern for equivalence testing. The different count distributions are described in some detail and some examples of how to use the simulation model to study various aspects, including a prospective power analysis, are provided.

Effect size, confidence intervals and statistical power in psychological research.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Téllez A.

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Quantitative psychological research is focused on detecting the occurrence of certain population phenomena by analyzing data from a sample, and statistics is a particularly helpful mathematical tool that is used by researchers to evaluate hypotheses and make decisions to accept or reject such hypotheses. In this paper, the various statistical tools in psychological research are reviewed. The limitations of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST and the advantages of using effect size and its respective confidence intervals are explained, as the latter two measurements can provide important information about the results of a study. These measurements also can facilitate data interpretation and easily detect trivial effects, enabling researchers to make decisions in a more clinically relevant fashion. Moreover, it is recommended to establish an appropriate sample size by calculating the optimum statistical power at the moment that the research is designed. Psychological journal editors are encouraged to follow APA recommendations strictly and ask authors of original research studies to report the effect size, its confidence intervals, statistical power and, when required, any measure of clinical significance. Additionally, we must account for the teaching of statistics at the graduate level. At that level, students do not receive sufficient information concerning the importance of using different types of effect sizes and their confidence intervals according to the different types of research designs; instead, most of the information is focused on the various tools of NHST.

SIESE - trimestrial bulletin - Synthesis 1995. Electric power summary statistics for Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

This bulletin presents the electric power summary statistics, which cover the performance of the power system for the whole of the utilities in 1995. It offers tables with revised data concerning the last two years based on updated information supplied by both the electric utilities and the SIESE's responsibility centers. 6 figs., 36 tabs

Powerful Inference with the D-Statistic on Low-Coverage Whole-Genome Data.

Science.gov (United States)

Soraggi, Samuele; Wiuf, Carsten; Albrechtsen, Anders

2018-02-02

The detection of ancient gene flow between human populations is an important issue in population genetics. A common tool for detecting ancient admixture events is the D-statistic. The D-statistic is based on the hypothesis of a genetic relationship that involves four populations, whose correctness is assessed by evaluating specific coincidences of alleles between the groups. When working with high-throughput sequencing data, calling genotypes accurately is not always possible; therefore, the D-statistic currently samples a single base from the reads of one individual per population. This implies ignoring much of the information in the data, an issue especially striking in the case of ancient genomes. We provide a significant improvement to overcome the problems of the D-statistic by considering all reads from multiple individuals in each population. We also apply type-specific error correction to combat the problems of sequencing errors, and show a way to correct for introgression from an external population that is not part of the supposed genetic relationship, and how this leads to an estimate of the admixture rate. We prove that the D-statistic is approximated by a standard normal distribution. Furthermore, we show that our method outperforms the traditional D-statistic in detecting admixtures. The power gain is most pronounced for low and medium sequencing depth (1-10×), and performances are as good as with perfectly called genotypes at a sequencing depth of 2×. We show the reliability of error correction in scenarios with simulated errors and ancient data, and correct for introgression in known scenarios to estimate the admixture rates. Copyright © 2018 Soraggi et al.

Empirical Statistical Power for Testing Multilocus Genotypic Effects under Unbalanced Designs Using a Gibbs Sampler

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chaeyoung Lee

2012-11-01

Full Text Available Epistasis that may explain a large portion of the phenotypic variation for complex economic traits of animals has been ignored in many genetic association studies. A Baysian method was introduced to draw inferences about multilocus genotypic effects based on their marginal posterior distributions by a Gibbs sampler. A simulation study was conducted to provide statistical powers under various unbalanced designs by using this method. Data were simulated by combined designs of number of loci, within genotype variance, and sample size in unbalanced designs with or without null combined genotype cells. Mean empirical statistical power was estimated for testing posterior mean estimate of combined genotype effect. A practical example for obtaining empirical statistical power estimates with a given sample size was provided under unbalanced designs. The empirical statistical powers would be useful for determining an optimal design when interactive associations of multiple loci with complex phenotypes were examined.

Wind Power Statistics Sweden 2009; Vindkraftstatistik 2009

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2010-04-15

In 2009, wind power produced 2.5 TWh, an increase of 26 percent over the previous year. Throughout the period 2003-2009 has production of electricity from wind power almost quadrupled. Sweden's total net production of electricity amounted, according to provisional statistics for 2009, to 133.7 TWh. The year 2007 wind energy's share passed 1.0 percent of total net production of electricity for the first time. In 2008 the proportion was 1.4 percent, and in 2009 to almost 1.9 percent of total net production. Total installed power 2009 was 1448 MW and the number of plants was 1359, an inckW{sub pse} with 363 MW and 198 resp. from 2008. In 2009, there were three main support system for wind power in Sweden: the certificate system; the wind pilot project; and the environmental bonus. The electricity certificate system is a market-based support system for electricity generation from renewables which includes wind power as one of the approved techniques. The system was introduced in 2003 and aims to increase the production of electricity from renewable energy sources by 25 TWh from 2002 levels by 2020.. Wind pilot support is a support to the market for large-scale wind power. Support aims to reduce the cost of the creation of new wind energy and promoting new technologies. Wind Pilot Aid, which has existed since 2003, has been extended until in 2012 and has increased by 350 million SEK (about 36 M Euro) for the period 2008-2012. The environmental bonus, which means a tax subsidy, has been stepped down for each year until and by the year 2009, which was the last year. In 2009, environmental bonus was 0.12 SEK/kWh for electricity from offshore wind. For onshore wind power the environmentally bonus ceased in 2008

Ten-year statistics of the electric power supply. Status and tendencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-12-01

The ten-year statistics of the electric power supply in Denmark for 1991-2000 presents in tables and figures the trend of the electric power supply sector during the last ten years. The tables and figures present information on total energy consumption, combined heat and power generation, fuel consumption and the environment, the technical systems, economy and pricing, organization of the electricity supply, and information on electricity prices and taxes for households and industry in various countries. (LN)

Statistical testing and power analysis for brain-wide association study.

Science.gov (United States)

Gong, Weikang; Wan, Lin; Lu, Wenlian; Ma, Liang; Cheng, Fan; Cheng, Wei; Grünewald, Stefan; Feng, Jianfeng

2018-04-05

The identification of connexel-wise associations, which involves examining functional connectivities between pairwise voxels across the whole brain, is both statistically and computationally challenging. Although such a connexel-wise methodology has recently been adopted by brain-wide association studies (BWAS) to identify connectivity changes in several mental disorders, such as schizophrenia, autism and depression, the multiple correction and power analysis methods designed specifically for connexel-wise analysis are still lacking. Therefore, we herein report the development of a rigorous statistical framework for connexel-wise significance testing based on the Gaussian random field theory. It includes controlling the family-wise error rate (FWER) of multiple hypothesis testings using topological inference methods, and calculating power and sample size for a connexel-wise study. Our theoretical framework can control the false-positive rate accurately, as validated empirically using two resting-state fMRI datasets. Compared with Bonferroni correction and false discovery rate (FDR), it can reduce false-positive rate and increase statistical power by appropriately utilizing the spatial information of fMRI data. Importantly, our method bypasses the need of non-parametric permutation to correct for multiple comparison, thus, it can efficiently tackle large datasets with high resolution fMRI images. The utility of our method is shown in a case-control study. Our approach can identify altered functional connectivities in a major depression disorder dataset, whereas existing methods fail. A software package is available at https://github.com/weikanggong/BWAS. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A generalized model to estimate the statistical power in mitochondrial disease studies involving 2×k tables.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jacobo Pardo-Seco

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA variation (i.e. haplogroups has been analyzed in regards to a number of multifactorial diseases. The statistical power of a case-control study determines the a priori probability to reject the null hypothesis of homogeneity between cases and controls. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We critically review previous approaches to the estimation of the statistical power based on the restricted scenario where the number of cases equals the number of controls, and propose a methodology that broadens procedures to more general situations. We developed statistical procedures that consider different disease scenarios, variable sample sizes in cases and controls, and variable number of haplogroups and effect sizes. The results indicate that the statistical power of a particular study can improve substantially by increasing the number of controls with respect to cases. In the opposite direction, the power decreases substantially when testing a growing number of haplogroups. We developed mitPower (http://bioinformatics.cesga.es/mitpower/, a web-based interface that implements the new statistical procedures and allows for the computation of the a priori statistical power in variable scenarios of case-control study designs, or e.g. the number of controls needed to reach fixed effect sizes. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The present study provides with statistical procedures for the computation of statistical power in common as well as complex case-control study designs involving 2×k tables, with special application (but not exclusive to mtDNA studies. In order to reach a wide range of researchers, we also provide a friendly web-based tool--mitPower--that can be used in both retrospective and prospective case-control disease studies.

DISTRIBUTED GRID-CONNECTED PHOTOVOLTAIC POWER SYSTEM EMISSION OFFSET ASSESSMENT: STATISTICAL TEST OF SIMULATED- AND MEASURED-BASED DATA

Science.gov (United States)

This study assessed the pollutant emission offset potential of distributed grid-connected photovoltaic (PV) power systems. Computer-simulated performance results were utilized for 211 PV systems located across the U.S. The PV systems' monthly electrical energy outputs were based ...

Ten-year statistics of the electric power supply. Status and tendencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-12-01

The ten-year statistics of the electric power supply in Denmark for 1990-1999 presents in tables and figures the trend of the electric power supply sector during the last ten years. The tables and figures present information on total energy consumption, combined heat and power generation, fuel consumption and the environment, the technical systems, economy and pricing, organization of the electricity supply, auto-production of electricity and information on electricity prices and taxes for households and industry in various countries. (LN)

Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Joensen, A; Giebel, G; Landberg, L [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H; Nielsen, H A [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)

1999-03-01

Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

Statistical analysis of human maintenance failures of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pyy, P.

2000-01-01

In this paper, a statistical study of faults caused by maintenance activities is presented. The objective of the study was to draw conclusions on the unplanned effects of maintenance on nuclear power plant safety and system availability. More than 4400 maintenance history reports from the years 1992-1994 of Olkiluoto BWR nuclear power plant (NPP) were analysed together with the maintenance personnel. The human action induced faults were classified, e.g., according to their multiplicity and effects. This paper presents and discusses the results of a statistical analysis of the data. Instrumentation and electrical components are especially prone to human failures. Many human failures were found in safety related systems. Similarly, several failures remained latent from outages to power operation. The safety significance was generally small. Modifications are an important source of multiple human failures. Plant maintenance data is a good source of human reliability data and it should be used more, in future. (orig.)

On Improving the Quality and Interpretation of Environmental Assessments using Statistical Analysis and Geographic Information Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Karuppiah, R.; Faldi, A.; Laurenzi, I.; Usadi, A.; Venkatesh, A.

2014-12-01

An increasing number of studies are focused on assessing the environmental footprint of different products and processes, especially using life cycle assessment (LCA). This work shows how combining statistical methods and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) with environmental analyses can help improve the quality of results and their interpretation. Most environmental assessments in literature yield single numbers that characterize the environmental impact of a process/product - typically global or country averages, often unchanging in time. In this work, we show how statistical analysis and GIS can help address these limitations. For example, we demonstrate a method to separately quantify uncertainty and variability in the result of LCA models using a power generation case study. This is important for rigorous comparisons between the impacts of different processes. Another challenge is lack of data that can affect the rigor of LCAs. We have developed an approach to estimate environmental impacts of incompletely characterized processes using predictive statistical models. This method is applied to estimate unreported coal power plant emissions in several world regions. There is also a general lack of spatio-temporal characterization of the results in environmental analyses. For instance, studies that focus on water usage do not put in context where and when water is withdrawn. Through the use of hydrological modeling combined with GIS, we quantify water stress on a regional and seasonal basis to understand water supply and demand risks for multiple users. Another example where it is important to consider regional dependency of impacts is when characterizing how agricultural land occupation affects biodiversity in a region. We developed a data-driven methodology used in conjuction with GIS to determine if there is a statistically significant difference between the impacts of growing different crops on different species in various biomes of the world.

Sunspot activity and influenza pandemics: a statistical assessment of the purported association.

Science.gov (United States)

Towers, S

2017-10-01

Since 1978, a series of papers in the literature have claimed to find a significant association between sunspot activity and the timing of influenza pandemics. This paper examines these analyses, and attempts to recreate the three most recent statistical analyses by Ertel (1994), Tapping et al. (2001), and Yeung (2006), which all have purported to find a significant relationship between sunspot numbers and pandemic influenza. As will be discussed, each analysis had errors in the data. In addition, in each analysis arbitrary selections or assumptions were also made, and the authors did not assess the robustness of their analyses to changes in those arbitrary assumptions. Varying the arbitrary assumptions to other, equally valid, assumptions negates the claims of significance. Indeed, an arbitrary selection made in one of the analyses appears to have resulted in almost maximal apparent significance; changing it only slightly yields a null result. This analysis applies statistically rigorous methodology to examine the purported sunspot/pandemic link, using more statistically powerful un-binned analysis methods, rather than relying on arbitrarily binned data. The analyses are repeated using both the Wolf and Group sunspot numbers. In all cases, no statistically significant evidence of any association was found. However, while the focus in this particular analysis was on the purported relationship of influenza pandemics to sunspot activity, the faults found in the past analyses are common pitfalls; inattention to analysis reproducibility and robustness assessment are common problems in the sciences, that are unfortunately not noted often enough in review.

Effect size and statistical power in the rodent fear conditioning literature - A systematic review.

Science.gov (United States)

Carneiro, Clarissa F D; Moulin, Thiago C; Macleod, Malcolm R; Amaral, Olavo B

2018-01-01

Proposals to increase research reproducibility frequently call for focusing on effect sizes instead of p values, as well as for increasing the statistical power of experiments. However, it is unclear to what extent these two concepts are indeed taken into account in basic biomedical science. To study this in a real-case scenario, we performed a systematic review of effect sizes and statistical power in studies on learning of rodent fear conditioning, a widely used behavioral task to evaluate memory. Our search criteria yielded 410 experiments comparing control and treated groups in 122 articles. Interventions had a mean effect size of 29.5%, and amnesia caused by memory-impairing interventions was nearly always partial. Mean statistical power to detect the average effect size observed in well-powered experiments with significant differences (37.2%) was 65%, and was lower among studies with non-significant results. Only one article reported a sample size calculation, and our estimated sample size to achieve 80% power considering typical effect sizes and variances (15 animals per group) was reached in only 12.2% of experiments. Actual effect sizes correlated with effect size inferences made by readers on the basis of textual descriptions of results only when findings were non-significant, and neither effect size nor power correlated with study quality indicators, number of citations or impact factor of the publishing journal. In summary, effect sizes and statistical power have a wide distribution in the rodent fear conditioning literature, but do not seem to have a large influence on how results are described or cited. Failure to take these concepts into consideration might limit attempts to improve reproducibility in this field of science.

Assessment of alternatives to correct inventory difference statistical treatment deficiencies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byers, K.R.; Johnston, J.W.; Bennett, C.A.; Brouns, R.J.; Mullen, M.F.; Roberts, F.P.

1983-11-01

This document presents an analysis of alternatives to correct deficiencies in the statistical treatment of inventory differences in the NRC guidance documents and licensee practice. Pacific Northwest Laboratory's objective for this study was to assess alternatives developed by the NRC and a panel of safeguards statistical experts. Criteria were developed for the evaluation and the assessment was made considering the criteria. The results of this assessment are PNL recommendations, which are intended to provide NRC decision makers with a logical and statistically sound basis for correcting the deficiencies

[Effect sizes, statistical power and sample sizes in "the Japanese Journal of Psychology"].

Science.gov (United States)

Suzukawa, Yumi; Toyoda, Hideki

2012-04-01

This study analyzed the statistical power of research studies published in the "Japanese Journal of Psychology" in 2008 and 2009. Sample effect sizes and sample statistical powers were calculated for each statistical test and analyzed with respect to the analytical methods and the fields of the studies. The results show that in the fields like perception, cognition or learning, the effect sizes were relatively large, although the sample sizes were small. At the same time, because of the small sample sizes, some meaningful effects could not be detected. In the other fields, because of the large sample sizes, meaningless effects could be detected. This implies that researchers who could not get large enough effect sizes would use larger samples to obtain significant results.

Caveats for using statistical significance tests in research assessments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schneider, Jesper Wiborg

2013-01-01

controversial and numerous criticisms have been leveled against their use. Based on examples from articles by proponents of the use statistical significance tests in research assessments, we address some of the numerous problems with such tests. The issues specifically discussed are the ritual practice......This article raises concerns about the advantages of using statistical significance tests in research assessments as has recently been suggested in the debate about proper normalization procedures for citation indicators by Opthof and Leydesdorff (2010). Statistical significance tests are highly...... argue that applying statistical significance tests and mechanically adhering to their results are highly problematic and detrimental to critical thinking. We claim that the use of such tests do not provide any advantages in relation to deciding whether differences between citation indicators...

Statistical algorithm for automated signature analysis of power spectral density data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piety, K.R.

1977-01-01

A statistical algorithm has been developed and implemented on a minicomputer system for on-line, surveillance applications. Power spectral density (PSD) measurements on process signals are the performance signatures that characterize the ''health'' of the monitored equipment. Statistical methods provide a quantitative basis for automating the detection of anomalous conditions. The surveillance algorithm has been tested on signals from neutron sensors, proximeter probes, and accelerometers to determine its potential for monitoring nuclear reactors and rotating machinery

A Note on Comparing the Power of Test Statistics at Low Significance Levels.

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Nathan; Elston, Robert

2011-01-01

It is an obvious fact that the power of a test statistic is dependent upon the significance (alpha) level at which the test is performed. It is perhaps a less obvious fact that the relative performance of two statistics in terms of power is also a function of the alpha level. Through numerous personal discussions, we have noted that even some competent statisticians have the mistaken intuition that relative power comparisons at traditional levels such as α = 0.05 will be roughly similar to relative power comparisons at very low levels, such as the level α = 5 × 10 -8 , which is commonly used in genome-wide association studies. In this brief note, we demonstrate that this notion is in fact quite wrong, especially with respect to comparing tests with differing degrees of freedom. In fact, at very low alpha levels the cost of additional degrees of freedom is often comparatively low. Thus we recommend that statisticians exercise caution when interpreting the results of power comparison studies which use alpha levels that will not be used in practice.

A statistical estimator for the boiler power and its related parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tang, H.

2001-01-01

To determine the boiler power accurately is important for both controlling the plant and maximizing the plant productivity. There are two computed boiler powers for each boiler. They are steam based boiler power and feedwater based boiler power. The steam based boiler power is computed as the enthalpy difference between the feedwater enthalpy and the boiler steam enthalpy. The feedwater based boiler power is computed as enthalpy absorbed by the feedwater. The steam based boiler power is computed in RRS program and used in calibrating the measured reactor power, while the feedwater based boiler power is computed in CSTAT program and used for indication. Since the steam based boiler power is used as feedback in the reactor control, it is chosen to be the one estimated in this work. Because the boiler power employs steam flow, feedwater flow and feedwater temperature measurements, and because any measurement contains constant or drifting noise and bias, the reconciliation and rectification procedures are needed to determine the boiler power more accurately. A statistic estimator is developed to perform the function of data reconciliation, gross error detection and instruments performance monitoring

A critical discussion of null hypothesis significance testing and statistical power analysis within psychological research

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jones, Allan; Sommerlund, Bo

2007-01-01

The uses of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) and statistical power analysis within psychological research are critically discussed. The article looks at the problems of relying solely on NHST when dealing with small and large sample sizes. The use of power-analysis in estimating...... the potential error introduced by small and large samples is advocated. Power analysis is not recommended as a replacement to NHST but as an additional source of information about the phenomena under investigation. Moreover, the importance of conceptual analysis in relation to statistical analysis of hypothesis...

Narrative Review of Statistical Reporting Checklists, Mandatory Statistical Editing, and Rectifying Common Problems in the Reporting of Scientific Articles.

Science.gov (United States)

Dexter, Franklin; Shafer, Steven L

2017-03-01

Considerable attention has been drawn to poor reproducibility in the biomedical literature. One explanation is inadequate reporting of statistical methods by authors and inadequate assessment of statistical reporting and methods during peer review. In this narrative review, we examine scientific studies of several well-publicized efforts to improve statistical reporting. We also review several retrospective assessments of the impact of these efforts. These studies show that instructions to authors and statistical checklists are not sufficient; no findings suggested that either improves the quality of statistical methods and reporting. Second, even basic statistics, such as power analyses, are frequently missing or incorrectly performed. Third, statistical review is needed for all papers that involve data analysis. A consistent finding in the studies was that nonstatistical reviewers (eg, "scientific reviewers") and journal editors generally poorly assess statistical quality. We finish by discussing our experience with statistical review at Anesthesia & Analgesia from 2006 to 2016.

Power and environmental assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cashmore, Matthew Asa; Richardson, Tim

2013-01-01

The significance of politics and power dynamics has long been recognised in environmental assessment (EA) research, but there has not been sustained attention to power, either theoretically or empirically. The aim of this special issue is to encourage the EA community to engage more consistently...

Statistical analysis applied to safety culture self-assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Macedo Soares, P.P.

2002-01-01

Interviews and opinion surveys are instruments used to assess the safety culture in an organization as part of the Safety Culture Enhancement Programme. Specific statistical tools are used to analyse the survey results. This paper presents an example of an opinion survey with the corresponding application of the statistical analysis and the conclusions obtained. Survey validation, Frequency statistics, Kolmogorov-Smirnov non-parametric test, Student (T-test) and ANOVA means comparison tests and LSD post-hoc multiple comparison test, are discussed. (author)

Effect size and statistical power in the rodent fear conditioning literature – A systematic review

Science.gov (United States)

Macleod, Malcolm R.

2018-01-01

Proposals to increase research reproducibility frequently call for focusing on effect sizes instead of p values, as well as for increasing the statistical power of experiments. However, it is unclear to what extent these two concepts are indeed taken into account in basic biomedical science. To study this in a real-case scenario, we performed a systematic review of effect sizes and statistical power in studies on learning of rodent fear conditioning, a widely used behavioral task to evaluate memory. Our search criteria yielded 410 experiments comparing control and treated groups in 122 articles. Interventions had a mean effect size of 29.5%, and amnesia caused by memory-impairing interventions was nearly always partial. Mean statistical power to detect the average effect size observed in well-powered experiments with significant differences (37.2%) was 65%, and was lower among studies with non-significant results. Only one article reported a sample size calculation, and our estimated sample size to achieve 80% power considering typical effect sizes and variances (15 animals per group) was reached in only 12.2% of experiments. Actual effect sizes correlated with effect size inferences made by readers on the basis of textual descriptions of results only when findings were non-significant, and neither effect size nor power correlated with study quality indicators, number of citations or impact factor of the publishing journal. In summary, effect sizes and statistical power have a wide distribution in the rodent fear conditioning literature, but do not seem to have a large influence on how results are described or cited. Failure to take these concepts into consideration might limit attempts to improve reproducibility in this field of science. PMID:29698451

Determinants of Judgments of Explanatory Power: Credibility, Generality, and Statistical Relevance

Science.gov (United States)

Colombo, Matteo; Bucher, Leandra; Sprenger, Jan

2017-01-01

Explanation is a central concept in human psychology. Drawing upon philosophical theories of explanation, psychologists have recently begun to examine the relationship between explanation, probability and causality. Our study advances this growing literature at the intersection of psychology and philosophy of science by systematically investigating how judgments of explanatory power are affected by (i) the prior credibility of an explanatory hypothesis, (ii) the causal framing of the hypothesis, (iii) the perceived generalizability of the explanation, and (iv) the relation of statistical relevance between hypothesis and evidence. Collectively, the results of our five experiments support the hypothesis that the prior credibility of a causal explanation plays a central role in explanatory reasoning: first, because of the presence of strong main effects on judgments of explanatory power, and second, because of the gate-keeping role it has for other factors. Highly credible explanations are not susceptible to causal framing effects, but they are sensitive to the effects of normatively relevant factors: the generalizability of an explanation, and its statistical relevance for the evidence. These results advance current literature in the philosophy and psychology of explanation in three ways. First, they yield a more nuanced understanding of the determinants of judgments of explanatory power, and the interaction between these factors. Second, they show the close relationship between prior beliefs and explanatory power. Third, they elucidate the nature of abductive reasoning. PMID:28928679

The application of statistical methods to assess economic assets

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. V. Dianov

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The article is devoted to consideration and evaluation of machinery, equipment and special equipment, methodological aspects of the use of standards for assessment of buildings and structures in current prices, the valuation of residential, specialized houses, office premises, assessment and reassessment of existing and inactive military assets, the application of statistical methods to obtain the relevant cost estimates.The objective of the scientific article is to consider possible application of statistical tools in the valuation of the assets, composing the core group of elements of national wealth – the fixed assets. Firstly, capital tangible assets constitute the basis of material base of a new value creation, products and non-financial services. The gain, accumulated of tangible assets of a capital nature is a part of the gross domestic product, and from its volume and specific weight in the composition of GDP we can judge the scope of reproductive processes in the country.Based on the methodological materials of the state statistics bodies of the Russian Federation, regulations of the theory of statistics, which describe the methods of statistical analysis such as the index, average values, regression, the methodical approach is structured in the application of statistical tools to obtain value estimates of property, plant and equipment with significant accumulated depreciation. Until now, the use of statistical methodology in the practice of economic assessment of assets is only fragmentary. This applies to both Federal Legislation (Federal law № 135 «On valuation activities in the Russian Federation» dated 16.07.1998 in edition 05.07.2016 and the methodological documents and regulations of the estimated activities, in particular, the valuation activities’ standards. A particular problem is the use of a digital database of Rosstat (Federal State Statistics Service, as to the specific fixed assets the comparison should be carried

A Statistical Method for Aggregated Wind Power Plants to Provide Secondary Frequency Control

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hu, Junjie; Ziras, Charalampos; Bindner, Henrik W.

2017-01-01

curtailment for aggregated wind power plants providing secondary frequency control (SFC) to the power system. By using historical SFC signals and wind speed data, we calculate metrics for the reserve provision error as a function of the scheduled wind power. We show that wind curtailment can be significantly......The increasing penetration of wind power brings significant challenges to power system operators due to the wind’s inherent uncertainty and variability. Traditionally, power plants and more recently demand response have been used to balance the power system. However, the use of wind power...... as a balancing-power source has also been investigated, especially for wind power dominated power systems such as Denmark. The main drawback is that wind power must be curtailed by setting a lower operating point, in order to offer upward regulation. We propose a statistical approach to reduce wind power...

Using DEWIS and R for Multi-Staged Statistics e-Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Gwynllyw, D. Rhys; Weir, Iain S.; Henderson, Karen L.

2016-01-01

We demonstrate how the DEWIS e-Assessment system may use embedded R code to facilitate the assessment of students' ability to perform involved statistical analyses. The R code has been written to emulate SPSS output and thus the statistical results for each bespoke data set can be generated efficiently and accurately using standard R routines.…

Application of nonparametric statistics to material strength/reliability assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arai, Taketoshi

1992-01-01

An advanced material technology requires data base on a wide variety of material behavior which need to be established experimentally. It may often happen that experiments are practically limited in terms of reproducibility or a range of test parameters. Statistical methods can be applied to understanding uncertainties in such a quantitative manner as required from the reliability point of view. Statistical assessment involves determinations of a most probable value and the maximum and/or minimum value as one-sided or two-sided confidence limit. A scatter of test data can be approximated by a theoretical distribution only if the goodness of fit satisfies a test criterion. Alternatively, nonparametric statistics (NPS) or distribution-free statistics can be applied. Mathematical procedures by NPS are well established for dealing with most reliability problems. They handle only order statistics of a sample. Mathematical formulas and some applications to engineering assessments are described. They include confidence limits of median, population coverage of sample, required minimum number of a sample, and confidence limits of fracture probability. These applications demonstrate that a nonparametric statistical estimation is useful in logical decision making in the case a large uncertainty exists. (author)

Statistical power analysis a simple and general model for traditional and modern hypothesis tests

CERN Document Server

Murphy, Kevin R; Wolach, Allen

2014-01-01

Noted for its accessible approach, this text applies the latest approaches of power analysis to both null hypothesis and minimum-effect testing using the same basic unified model. Through the use of a few simple procedures and examples, the authors show readers with little expertise in statistical analysis how to obtain the values needed to carry out the power analysis for their research. Illustrations of how these analyses work and how they can be used to choose the appropriate criterion for defining statistically significant outcomes are sprinkled throughout. The book presents a simple and g

Method for assessing wind power integration in a hydro based power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Norheim, I.; Palsson, M.; Tande, J.O.G.; Uhlen, K.

2006-01-01

The present paper demonstrates a method for assessment of how much wind power that can be integrated in a system with limited transmission capacity. Based on hydro inflow data and wind measurements (for different locations of planned wind farms in an area) it is possible to assess how much wind power that can be fed into a certain point in the transmission network without violating the transmission capacity limits. The proposed method combines the use of market modelling and detailed network analysis in order to assess the probability of network congestions rather than focusing on extreme cases. By computing the probability distribution of power flow on critical corridors in the grid it is possible to assess the likelihood of network congestions and the amount of energy that must be curtailed to fulfil power system security requirements (n-1). This way the assessment is not only made of worst case scenarios, assuming maximal flow from hydro plants and maximal wind power production. As extreme case scenarios are short term and may be solved by market mechanisms or automatic system protection schemes (disconnection of wind power or hydro power), the proposed method may reveal that it would be economic to install more wind power than if only based on analysis of worst case scenarios. (orig.)

Assessment of statistical education in Indonesia: Preliminary results and initiation to simulation-based inference

Science.gov (United States)

Saputra, K. V. I.; Cahyadi, L.; Sembiring, U. A.

2018-01-01

Start in this paper, we assess our traditional elementary statistics education and also we introduce elementary statistics with simulation-based inference. To assess our statistical class, we adapt the well-known CAOS (Comprehensive Assessment of Outcomes in Statistics) test that serves as an external measure to assess the student’s basic statistical literacy. This test generally represents as an accepted measure of statistical literacy. We also introduce a new teaching method on elementary statistics class. Different from the traditional elementary statistics course, we will introduce a simulation-based inference method to conduct hypothesis testing. From the literature, it has shown that this new teaching method works very well in increasing student’s understanding of statistics.

Statistical models for thermal ageing of steel materials in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Persoz, M.

1996-01-01

Some category of steel materials in nuclear power plants may be subjected to thermal ageing, whose extent depends on the steel chemical composition and the ageing parameters, i.e. temperature and duration. This ageing affects the 'impact strength' of the materials, which is a mechanical property. In order to assess the residual lifetime of these components, a probabilistic study has been launched, which takes into account the scatter over the input parameters of the mechanical model. Predictive formulae for estimating the impact strength of aged materials are important input data of the model. A data base has been created with impact strength results obtained from an ageing program in laboratory and statistical treatments have been undertaken. Two kinds of model have been developed, with non linear regression methods (PROC NLIN, available in SAS/STAT). The first one, using a hyperbolic tangent function, is partly based on physical considerations, and the second one, of an exponential type, is purely statistically built. The difficulties consist in selecting the significant parameters and attributing initial values to the coefficients, which is a requirement of the NLIN procedure. This global statistical analysis has led to general models that are unction of the chemical variables and the ageing parameters. These models are as precise (if not more) as local models that had been developed earlier for some specific values of ageing temperature and ageing duration. This paper describes the data and the methodology used to build the models and analyses the results given by the SAS system. (author)

Empirical assessment of published effect sizes and power in the recent cognitive neuroscience and psychology literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Szucs, Denes; Ioannidis, John P A

2017-03-01

We have empirically assessed the distribution of published effect sizes and estimated power by analyzing 26,841 statistical records from 3,801 cognitive neuroscience and psychology papers published recently. The reported median effect size was D = 0.93 (interquartile range: 0.64-1.46) for nominally statistically significant results and D = 0.24 (0.11-0.42) for nonsignificant results. Median power to detect small, medium, and large effects was 0.12, 0.44, and 0.73, reflecting no improvement through the past half-century. This is so because sample sizes have remained small. Assuming similar true effect sizes in both disciplines, power was lower in cognitive neuroscience than in psychology. Journal impact factors negatively correlated with power. Assuming a realistic range of prior probabilities for null hypotheses, false report probability is likely to exceed 50% for the whole literature. In light of our findings, the recently reported low replication success in psychology is realistic, and worse performance may be expected for cognitive neuroscience.

Validation of statistical assessment method for the optimization of the inspection need for nuclear steam generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wallin, K.; Voskamp, R.; Schmibauer, J.; Ostermeyer, H.; Nagel, G.

2011-01-01

The cost of steam generator inspections in nuclear power plants is high. A new quantitative assessment methodology for the accumulation of flaws due to stochastic causes like fretting has been developed for cases where limited inspection data is available. Additionally, a new quantitative assessment methodology for the accumulation of environment related flaws, caused e.g. by corrosion in steam generator tubes, has been developed. The method that combines deterministic information regarding flaw initiation and growth with stochastic elements connected to environmental aspects requires only knowledge of the experimental flaw accumulation history. The method, combining both types of flaw types, provides a complete description of the flaw accumulation and there are several possible uses of the method. The method can be used to evaluate the total life expectancy of the steam generator and simple statistically defined plugging criteria can be established based on flaw behaviour. This way the inspection interval and inspection coverage can be optimized with respect to allowable flaws and the method can recognize flaw type subsets requiring more frequent inspection intervals. The method can also be used to develop statistically realistic safety factors accounting for uncertainties in inspection flaw sizing and detection. The statistical assessment method has been showed to be robust and insensitive to different assessments of plugged tubes. Because the procedure is re-calibrated after each inspection, it reacts effectively to possible changes in the steam generator environment. Validation of the assessment method is provided for real steam generators, both in the case of stochastic damage as well as environment related flaws. (authors)

Air-chemistry "turbulence": power-law scaling and statistical regularity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

H.-m. Hsu

2011-08-01

Full Text Available With the intent to gain further knowledge on the spectral structures and statistical regularities of surface atmospheric chemistry, the chemical gases (NO, NO₂, NO_x, CO, SO₂, and O₃ and aerosol (PM₁₀ measured at 74 air quality monitoring stations over the island of Taiwan are analyzed for the year of 2004 at hourly resolution. They represent a range of surface air quality with a mixed combination of geographic settings, and include urban/rural, coastal/inland, plain/hill, and industrial/agricultural locations. In addition to the well-known semi-diurnal and diurnal oscillations, weekly, and intermediate (20 ~ 30 days peaks are also identified with the continuous wavelet transform (CWT. The spectra indicate power-law scaling regions for the frequencies higher than the diurnal and those lower than the diurnal with the average exponents of −5/3 and −1, respectively. These dual-exponents are corroborated with those with the detrended fluctuation analysis in the corresponding time-lag regions. These exponents are mostly independent of the averages and standard deviations of time series measured at various geographic settings, i.e., the spatial inhomogeneities. In other words, they possess dominant universal structures. After spectral coefficients from the CWT decomposition are grouped according to the spectral bands, and inverted separately, the PDFs of the reconstructed time series for the high-frequency band demonstrate the interesting statistical regularity, −3 power-law scaling for the heavy tails, consistently. Such spectral peaks, dual-exponent structures, and power-law scaling in heavy tails are important structural information, but their relations to turbulence and mesoscale variability require further investigations. This could lead to a better understanding of the processes controlling air quality.

Statistical measurement of power spectrum density of large aperture optical component

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xu Jiancheng; Xu Qiao; Chai Liqun

2010-01-01

According to the requirement of ICF, a method based on statistical theory has been proposed to measure the power spectrum density (PSD) of large aperture optical components. The method breaks the large-aperture wavefront into small regions, and obtains the PSD of the large-aperture wavefront by weighted averaging of the PSDs of the regions, where the weight factor is each region's area. Simulation and experiment demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed method. They also show that, the obtained PSDs of the large-aperture wavefront by statistical method and sub-aperture stitching method fit well, when the number of small regions is no less than 8 x 8. The statistical method is not sensitive to translation stage's errors and environment instabilities, thus it is appropriate for PSD measurement during the process of optical fabrication. (authors)

Demographic statistics pertaining to nuclear power reactor sites

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1979-10-01

Population statistics are presented for 145 nuclear power plant sites. Summary tables and figures are included that were developed to aid in the evaluation of trends and general patterns associated with the various parameters of interest, such as the proximity of nuclear plant sites to centers of population. The primary reason for publishing this information at this time is to provide a factual basis for use in discussions on the subject of reactor siting policy. The report is a revised and updated version of a draft report published in December 1977. Errors in the population data base have been corrected and new data tabulations added

Nuclear power statistics 1985

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oelgaard, P.L.

1986-06-01

In this report an attempt is made to collect literature data on nuclear power production and to present it on graphical form. Data is given not only for 1985, but for a number of years so that the trends in the development of nuclear power can be seen. The global capacity of nuclear power plants in operation and those in operation, under construction, or on order is considered. Further the average capacity factor for nuclear plants of a specific type and for various geographical areas is given. The contribution of nuclear power to the total electricity production is considered for a number of countries and areas. Finally, the accumulated years of commercial operation for the various reactor types up to the end of 1985 is presented. (author)

Simulations and cosmological inference: A statistical model for power spectra means and covariances

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schneider, Michael D.; Knox, Lloyd; Habib, Salman; Heitmann, Katrin; Higdon, David; Nakhleh, Charles

2008-01-01

We describe an approximate statistical model for the sample variance distribution of the nonlinear matter power spectrum that can be calibrated from limited numbers of simulations. Our model retains the common assumption of a multivariate normal distribution for the power spectrum band powers but takes full account of the (parameter-dependent) power spectrum covariance. The model is calibrated using an extension of the framework in Habib et al. (2007) to train Gaussian processes for the power spectrum mean and covariance given a set of simulation runs over a hypercube in parameter space. We demonstrate the performance of this machinery by estimating the parameters of a power-law model for the power spectrum. Within this framework, our calibrated sample variance distribution is robust to errors in the estimated covariance and shows rapid convergence of the posterior parameter constraints with the number of training simulations.

Implementation of a Model Output Statistics based on meteorological variable screening for short‐term wind power forecast

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ranaboldo, Matteo; Giebel, Gregor; Codina, Bernat

2013-01-01

A combination of physical and statistical treatments to post‐process numerical weather predictions (NWP) outputs is needed for successful short‐term wind power forecasts. One of the most promising and effective approaches for statistical treatment is the Model Output Statistics (MOS) technique....... The proposed MOS performed well in both wind farms, and its forecasts compare positively with an actual operative model in use at Risø DTU and other MOS types, showing minimum BIAS and improving NWP power forecast of around 15% in terms of root mean square error. Further improvements could be obtained...

Statistical investigation of expected wave energy and its reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ozger, M.; Altunkaynak, A.; Sen, Z.

2004-01-01

The statistical behavior of wave energy at a single site is derived by considering simultaneous variations in the period and wave height. In this paper, the general wave power formulation is derived by using the theory of perturbation. This method leads to a general formulation of the wave power expectation and other statistical parameter expressions, such as standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The statistical parameters, namely the mean value and variance of wave energy, are found in terms of the simple statistical parameters of period, significant wave height and zero up-crossing period. The elegance of these parameters is that they are distribution free. These parameters provide a means for defining the wave energy distribution function by employing the Chebyschev's inequality. Subsequently, an approximate probability distribution function of the wave energy is also derived for assessment of risk and reliability associated with wave energy. Necessary simple charts are given for risk and reliability assessments. Two procedures are presented for such assessments in wave energy calculations and the applications of these procedures are provided for wave energy potential assessment in the regions of the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of U.S. (author)

Statistical investigation of expected wave energy and its reliability

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oezger, Mehmet; Altunkaynak, Abduesselam; Sen, Zekai

2004-01-01

The statistical behavior of wave energy at a single site is derived by considering simultaneous variations in the period and wave height. In this paper, the general wave power formulation is derived by using the theory of perturbation. This method leads to a general formulation of the wave power expectation and other statistical parameter expressions, such as standard deviation and coefficient of variation. The statistical parameters, namely the mean value and variance of wave energy, are found in terms of the simple statistical parameters of period, significant wave height and zero up-crossing period. The elegance of these parameters is that they are distribution free. These parameters provide a means for defining the wave energy distribution function by employing the Chebyschev's inequality. Subsequently, an approximate probability distribution function of the wave energy is also derived for assessment of risk and reliability associated with wave energy. Necessary simple charts are given for risk and reliability assessments. Two procedures are presented for such assessments in wave energy calculations and the applications of these procedures are provided for wave energy potential assessment in the regions of the Pacific Ocean off the west coast of U.S

Nordel - Availability statistics for thermal power plants 1995. (Denmark, Finland, Sweden)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1996-01-01

The power companies of Denmark, Finland and Sweden have agreed on almost identical procedures for the recording and analysing of data describing the availability of power producing units over a certain capacity. Since 1975 the data for all three countries have been summarized and published in a joint report. The purpose of this report is to present some basic information about the operation of power producing units in the three countries. Referring to the report, companies or bodies will be able to exchange more detailed information with other companies or bodies in any of the countries. The report includes power producing units using fossil fuels, nuclear power plants and gas turbines. The information is presented separately for each country with a joint NORDEL statistics for units using fossil fuels, arranged in separate groups according to the type of fossil fuel which is used. The grouping of power producing units into classes of capacity has been made in accordance with the classification adopted by UNIPEDE/WEC. The definitions in NORDEL's 'Tillgaenglighetsbegrepp foer vaermekraft' ('The Concept of Availability for Thermal Power'), September 1977, are used in this report. The basic data for the availability are in accordance with the recommendations of UNIPEDE/WEC. (author)

Statistical methods for assessing agreement between continuous measurements

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sokolowski, Ineta; Hansen, Rikke Pilegaard; Vedsted, Peter

Background: Clinical research often involves study of agreement amongst observers. Agreement can be measured in different ways, and one can obtain quite different values depending on which method one uses. Objective: We review the approaches that have been discussed to assess the agreement between...... continuous measures and discuss their strengths and weaknesses. Different methods are illustrated using actual data from the `Delay in diagnosis of cancer in general practice´ project in Aarhus, Denmark. Subjects and Methods: We use weighted kappa-statistic, intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC......), concordance coefficient, Bland-Altman limits of agreement and percentage of agreement to assess the agreement between patient reported delay and doctor reported delay in diagnosis of cancer in general practice. Key messages: The correct statistical approach is not obvious. Many studies give the product...

How Teachers Understand and Use Power in Alternative Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelvin H. K. Tan

2012-01-01

Full Text Available “Alternative assessment” is an increasingly common and popular discourse in education. The potential benefit of alternative assessment practices is premised on significant changes in assessment practices. However, assessment practices embody power relations between institutions, teachers and students, and these power relationships determine the possibility and the extent of actual changes in assessment practices. Labelling a practice as “alternative assessment does not guarantee meaningful departure from existing practice. Recent research has warned that assessment practices in education cannot be presumed to empower students in ways that enhance their learning. This is partly due to a tendency to speak of power in assessment in undefined terms. Hence, it would be useful to identify the types of power present in assessment practices and the contexts which give rise to them. This paper seeks to examine power in the context of different ways that alternative assessment is practiced and understood by teachers. Research on teachers’ conceptions of alternative assessment is presented, and each of the conceptions is then analysed for insights into teachers’ meanings and practices of power. In particular, instances of sovereign, epistemological and disciplinary power in alternative assessment are identified to illuminate new ways of understanding and using alternative assessment.

Safety assessment of emergency power systems for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1992-01-01

This publication is intended to assist the safety assessor within a regulatory body, or one working as a consultant, in assessing the safety of a given design of the emergency power systems (EPS) for a nuclear power plant. The present publication refers closely to the NUSS Safety Guide 50-SG-D7 (Rev. 1), Emergency Power Systems at Nuclear Power Plants. It covers therefore exactly the same technical subject as that Safety Guide. In view of its objective, however, it attempts to help in the evaluation of possible technical solutions which are intended to fulfill the safety requirements. Section 2 clarifies the scope further by giving an outline of the assessment steps in the licensing process. After a general outline of the assessment process in relation to the licensing of a nuclear power plant, the publication is divided into two parts. First, all safety issues are presented in the form of questions that have to be answered in order for the assessor to be confident of a safe design. The second part presents the same topics in tabulated form, listing the required documentation which the assessor has to consult and those international and national technical standards pertinent to the topics. An extensive reference list provides information on standards. 1 tab

Statistical core design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oelkers, E.; Heller, A.S.; Farnsworth, D.A.; Kearfott, K.J.

1978-01-01

The report describes the statistical analysis of DNBR thermal-hydraulic margin of a 3800 MWt, 205-FA core under design overpower conditions. The analysis used LYNX-generated data at predetermined values of the input variables whose uncertainties were to be statistically combined. LYNX data were used to construct an efficient response surface model in the region of interest; the statistical analysis was accomplished through the evaluation of core reliability; utilizing propagation of the uncertainty distributions of the inputs. The response surface model was implemented in both the analytical error propagation and Monte Carlo Techniques. The basic structural units relating to the acceptance criteria are fuel pins. Therefore, the statistical population of pins with minimum DNBR values smaller than specified values is determined. The specified values are designated relative to the most probable and maximum design DNBR values on the power limiting pin used in present design analysis, so that gains over the present design criteria could be assessed for specified probabilistic acceptance criteria. The results are equivalent to gains ranging from 1.2 to 4.8 percent of rated power dependent on the acceptance criterion. The corresponding acceptance criteria range from 95 percent confidence that no pin will be in DNB to 99.9 percent of the pins, which are expected to avoid DNB

Maximizing Statistical Power When Verifying Probabilistic Forecasts of Hydrometeorological Events

Science.gov (United States)

DeChant, C. M.; Moradkhani, H.

2014-12-01

Hydrometeorological events (i.e. floods, droughts, precipitation) are increasingly being forecasted probabilistically, owing to the uncertainties in the underlying causes of the phenomenon. In these forecasts, the probability of the event, over some lead time, is estimated based on some model simulations or predictive indicators. By issuing probabilistic forecasts, agencies may communicate the uncertainty in the event occurring. Assuming that the assigned probability of the event is correct, which is referred to as a reliable forecast, the end user may perform some risk management based on the potential damages resulting from the event. Alternatively, an unreliable forecast may give false impressions of the actual risk, leading to improper decision making when protecting resources from extreme events. Due to this requisite for reliable forecasts to perform effective risk management, this study takes a renewed look at reliability assessment in event forecasts. Illustrative experiments will be presented, showing deficiencies in the commonly available approaches (Brier Score, Reliability Diagram). Overall, it is shown that the conventional reliability assessment techniques do not maximize the ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. In this regard, a theoretical formulation of the probabilistic event forecast verification framework will be presented. From this analysis, hypothesis testing with the Poisson-Binomial distribution is the most exact model available for the verification framework, and therefore maximizes one's ability to distinguish between a reliable and unreliable forecast. Application of this verification system was also examined within a real forecasting case study, highlighting the additional statistical power provided with the use of the Poisson-Binomial distribution.

A Statistical Model for Uplink Intercell Interference with Power Adaptation and Greedy Scheduling

KAUST Repository

Tabassum, Hina

2012-10-03

This paper deals with the statistical modeling of uplink inter-cell interference (ICI) considering greedy scheduling with power adaptation based on channel conditions. The derived model is implicitly generalized for any kind of shadowing and fading environments. More precisely, we develop a generic model for the distribution of ICI based on the locations of the allocated users and their transmit powers. The derived model is utilized to evaluate important network performance metrics such as ergodic capacity, average fairness and average power preservation numerically. Monte-Carlo simulation details are included to support the analysis and show the accuracy of the derived expressions. In parallel to the literature, we show that greedy scheduling with power adaptation reduces the ICI, average power consumption of users, and enhances the average fairness among users, compared to the case without power adaptation. © 2012 IEEE.

A Statistical Model for Uplink Intercell Interference with Power Adaptation and Greedy Scheduling

KAUST Repository

Tabassum, Hina; Yilmaz, Ferkan; Dawy, Zaher; Alouini, Mohamed-Slim

2012-01-01

This paper deals with the statistical modeling of uplink inter-cell interference (ICI) considering greedy scheduling with power adaptation based on channel conditions. The derived model is implicitly generalized for any kind of shadowing and fading environments. More precisely, we develop a generic model for the distribution of ICI based on the locations of the allocated users and their transmit powers. The derived model is utilized to evaluate important network performance metrics such as ergodic capacity, average fairness and average power preservation numerically. Monte-Carlo simulation details are included to support the analysis and show the accuracy of the derived expressions. In parallel to the literature, we show that greedy scheduling with power adaptation reduces the ICI, average power consumption of users, and enhances the average fairness among users, compared to the case without power adaptation. © 2012 IEEE.

Assessing the need for power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chern, W.S.; Just, R.E.

1982-01-01

The growing controversy over nuclear power has demanded a critical evaluation of the need for power to justify proposed nuclear power plants. This paper discusses the use of an econometric model developed for the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission to conduct an independent assessment of electricity demand forecasts related to the licensing of nuclear power plants. The model forecasts electricity demand and price by sector and by state. The estimation and forecasting results for the New England region are presented as a case in point where an econometric model has been used to analyse alternative fuel price scenarios and to aid substantive public decision making regarding new nuclear power plant decisions. (author)

Design of durability test protocol for vehicular fuel cell systems operated in power-follow mode based on statistical results of on-road data

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Liangfei; Reimer, Uwe; Li, Jianqiu; Huang, Haiyan; Hu, Zunyan; Jiang, Hongliang; Janßen, Holger; Ouyang, Minggao; Lehnert, Werner

2018-02-01

City buses using polymer electrolyte membrane (PEM) fuel cells are considered to be the most likely fuel cell vehicles to be commercialized in China. The technical specifications of the fuel cell systems (FCSs) these buses are equipped with will differ based on the powertrain configurations and vehicle control strategies, but can generally be classified into the power-follow and soft-run modes. Each mode imposes different levels of electrochemical stress on the fuel cells. Evaluating the aging behavior of fuel cell stacks under the conditions encountered in fuel cell buses requires new durability test protocols based on statistical results obtained during actual driving tests. In this study, we propose a systematic design method for fuel cell durability test protocols that correspond to the power-follow mode based on three parameters for different fuel cell load ranges. The powertrain configurations and control strategy are described herein, followed by a presentation of the statistical data for the duty cycles of FCSs in one city bus in the demonstration project. Assessment protocols are presented based on the statistical results using mathematical optimization methods, and are compared to existing protocols with respect to common factors, such as time at open circuit voltage and root-mean-square power.

A multivariate statistical study on a diversified data gathering system for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Teichmann, T.; Levine, M.M.; Kato, W.Y.

1989-02-01

In this report, multivariate statistical methods are presented and applied to demonstrate their use in analyzing nuclear power plant operational data. For analyses of nuclear power plant events, approaches are presented for detecting malfunctions and degradations within the course of the event. At the system level, approaches are investigated as a means of diagnosis of system level performance. This involves the detection of deviations from normal performance of the system. The input data analyzed are the measurable physical parameters, such as steam generator level, pressurizer water level, auxiliary feedwater flow, etc. The study provides the methodology and illustrative examples based on data gathered from simulation of nuclear power plant transients and computer simulation of a plant system performance (due to lack of easily accessible operational data). Such an approach, once fully developed, can be used to explore statistically the detection of failure trends and patterns and prevention of conditions with serious safety implications. 33 refs., 18 figs., 9 tabs

Development and Assessment of a Preliminary Randomization-Based Introductory Statistics Curriculum

Science.gov (United States)

Tintle, Nathan; VanderStoep, Jill; Holmes, Vicki-Lynn; Quisenberry, Brooke; Swanson, Todd

2011-01-01

The algebra-based introductory statistics course is the most popular undergraduate course in statistics. While there is a general consensus for the content of the curriculum, the recent Guidelines for Assessment and Instruction in Statistics Education (GAISE) have challenged the pedagogy of this course. Additionally, some arguments have been made…

Production-distribution of electric power in France: 1997-98 statistical data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1999-01-01

This document has been realized using the annual inquiry carried out by the French direction of gas, electricity and coal (Digec). It brings together the main statistical data about the production, transport and consumption of electric power in France: 1997 and 1998 balance sheets, foreign exchanges, long-term evolutions, production with respect to the different energy sources, consumption in the different departments and regions.. (J.S.)

Statistical modeling of the power grid from a wind farm standpoint

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farajzadehbibalan, Saber; Ramezani, Mohammad H.; Nielsen, Peter

2017-01-01

wind farm over several years which results in the development of a useful model for practical purposes. Secondly, the derived model is computationally inexpensive. Considering an arbitrary wind turbine generator, we show that the behavior of the power grid at the connection point can be represented......In this study, we derive a statistical model of a power grid from the wind farm's standpoint based on dynamic principal component analysis. The main advantages of our model compared to the previously developed models are twofold. Firstly, our proposed model benefits from logged data of an offshore...... by 4 out of 9 registered variables, i.e. 3-phase voltages, 3-phase currents, frequency, and generated active and reactive powers. We further prove that the dynamic nature of the system can be optimally captured by a time lag shift of two samples. To extend the derived model of a wind turbine generator...

Statistical methods for assessment of blend homogeneity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Madsen, Camilla

2002-01-01

In this thesis the use of various statistical methods to address some of the problems related to assessment of the homogeneity of powder blends in tablet production is discussed. It is not straight forward to assess the homogeneity of a powder blend. The reason is partly that in bulk materials......, it is shown how to set up parametric acceptance criteria for the batch that gives a high confidence that future samples with a probability larger than a specified value will pass the USP threeclass criteria. Properties and robustness of proposed changes to the USP test for content uniformity are investigated...

What influences the choice of assessment methods in health technology assessments? Statistical analysis of international health technology assessments from 1989 to 2002.

Science.gov (United States)

Draborg, Eva; Andersen, Christian Kronborg

2006-01-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) has been used as input in decision making worldwide for more than 25 years. However, no uniform definition of HTA or agreement on assessment methods exists, leaving open the question of what influences the choice of assessment methods in HTAs. The objective of this study is to analyze statistically a possible relationship between methods of assessment used in practical HTAs, type of assessed technology, type of assessors, and year of publication. A sample of 433 HTAs published by eleven leading institutions or agencies in nine countries was reviewed and analyzed by multiple logistic regression. The study shows that outsourcing of HTA reports to external partners is associated with a higher likelihood of using assessment methods, such as meta-analysis, surveys, economic evaluations, and randomized controlled trials; and with a lower likelihood of using assessment methods, such as literature reviews and "other methods". The year of publication was statistically related to the inclusion of economic evaluations and shows a decreasing likelihood during the year span. The type of assessed technology was related to economic evaluations with a decreasing likelihood, to surveys, and to "other methods" with a decreasing likelihood when pharmaceuticals were the assessed type of technology. During the period from 1989 to 2002, no major developments in assessment methods used in practical HTAs were shown statistically in a sample of 433 HTAs worldwide. Outsourcing to external assessors has a statistically significant influence on choice of assessment methods.

The MAX Statistic is Less Powerful for Genome Wide Association Studies Under Most Alternative Hypotheses.

Science.gov (United States)

Shifflett, Benjamin; Huang, Rong; Edland, Steven D

2017-01-01

Genotypic association studies are prone to inflated type I error rates if multiple hypothesis testing is performed, e.g., sequentially testing for recessive, multiplicative, and dominant risk. Alternatives to multiple hypothesis testing include the model independent genotypic χ 2 test, the efficiency robust MAX statistic, which corrects for multiple comparisons but with some loss of power, or a single Armitage test for multiplicative trend, which has optimal power when the multiplicative model holds but with some loss of power when dominant or recessive models underlie the genetic association. We used Monte Carlo simulations to describe the relative performance of these three approaches under a range of scenarios. All three approaches maintained their nominal type I error rates. The genotypic χ 2 and MAX statistics were more powerful when testing a strictly recessive genetic effect or when testing a dominant effect when the allele frequency was high. The Armitage test for multiplicative trend was most powerful for the broad range of scenarios where heterozygote risk is intermediate between recessive and dominant risk. Moreover, all tests had limited power to detect recessive genetic risk unless the sample size was large, and conversely all tests were relatively well powered to detect dominant risk. Taken together, these results suggest the general utility of the multiplicative trend test when the underlying genetic model is unknown.

Statistical problems in the assessment of nuclear risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Easterling, R.G.

1980-01-01

Information on nuclear power plant risk assessment is presented concerning attitudinal problems; and methodological problems involving expert opinions, human error probabilities, nonindependent events, uncertainty analysis, and acceptable risk criteria

Classification of Underlying Causes of Power Quality Disturbances: Deterministic versus Statistical Methods

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emmanouil Styvaktakis

2007-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents the two main types of classification methods for power quality disturbances based on underlying causes: deterministic classification, giving an expert system as an example, and statistical classification, with support vector machines (a novel method as an example. An expert system is suitable when one has limited amount of data and sufficient power system expert knowledge; however, its application requires a set of threshold values. Statistical methods are suitable when large amount of data is available for training. Two important issues to guarantee the effectiveness of a classifier, data segmentation, and feature extraction are discussed. Segmentation of a sequence of data recording is preprocessing to partition the data into segments each representing a duration containing either an event or a transition between two events. Extraction of features is applied to each segment individually. Some useful features and their effectiveness are then discussed. Some experimental results are included for demonstrating the effectiveness of both systems. Finally, conclusions are given together with the discussion of some future research directions.

In vivo Comet assay – statistical analysis and power calculations of mice testicular cells

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Merete Kjær; Sharma, Anoop Kumar; Dybdahl, Marianne

2014-01-01

is to provide curves for this statistic outlining the number of animals and gels to use. The current study was based on 11 compounds administered via oral gavage in three doses to male mice: CAS no. 110-26-9, CAS no. 512-56-1, CAS no. 111873-33-7, CAS no. 79-94-7, CAS no. 115-96-8, CAS no. 598-55-0, CAS no. 636....... A linear mixed-effects model was fitted to the summarized data and the estimated variance components were used to generate power curves as a function of sample size. The statistic that most appropriately summarized the within-sample distributions was the median of the log-transformed data, as it most...... consistently conformed to the assumptions of the statistical model. Power curves for 1.5-, 2-, and 2.5-fold changes of the highest dose group compared to the control group when 50 and 100 cells were scored per gel are provided to aid in the design of future Comet assay studies on testicular cells....

Environmental impact assessment of coal power plants in operation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bartan Ayfer

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Coal power plants constitute an important component of the energy mix in many countries. However, coal power plants can cause several environmental risks such as: climate change and biodiversity loss. In this study, a tool has been proposed to calculate the environmental impact of a coal-fired thermal power plant in operation by using multi-criteria scoring and fuzzy logic method. We take into account the following environmental parameters in our tool: CO, SO2, NOx, particulate matter, fly ash, bottom ash, the cooling water intake impact on aquatic biota, and the thermal pollution. In the proposed tool, the boundaries of the fuzzy logic membership functions were established taking into account the threshold values of the environmental parameters which were defined in the environmental legislation. Scoring of these environmental parameters were done with the statistical analysis of the environmental monitoring data of the power plant and by using the documented evidences that were obtained during the site visits. The proposed method estimates each environmental impact factor level separately and then aggregates them by calculating the Environmental Impact Score (EIS. The proposed method uses environmental monitoring data and documented evidence instead of using simulation models. The proposed method has been applied to the 4 coal-fired power plants that have been operation in Turkey. The Environmental Impact Score was obtained for each power plant and their environmental performances were compared. It is expected that those environmental impact assessments will contribute to the decision-making process for environmental investments to those plants. The main advantage of the proposed method is its flexibility and ease of use.

Environmental impact assessment of coal power plants in operation

Science.gov (United States)

Bartan, Ayfer; Kucukali, Serhat; Ar, Irfan

2017-11-01

Coal power plants constitute an important component of the energy mix in many countries. However, coal power plants can cause several environmental risks such as: climate change and biodiversity loss. In this study, a tool has been proposed to calculate the environmental impact of a coal-fired thermal power plant in operation by using multi-criteria scoring and fuzzy logic method. We take into account the following environmental parameters in our tool: CO, SO2, NOx, particulate matter, fly ash, bottom ash, the cooling water intake impact on aquatic biota, and the thermal pollution. In the proposed tool, the boundaries of the fuzzy logic membership functions were established taking into account the threshold values of the environmental parameters which were defined in the environmental legislation. Scoring of these environmental parameters were done with the statistical analysis of the environmental monitoring data of the power plant and by using the documented evidences that were obtained during the site visits. The proposed method estimates each environmental impact factor level separately and then aggregates them by calculating the Environmental Impact Score (EIS). The proposed method uses environmental monitoring data and documented evidence instead of using simulation models. The proposed method has been applied to the 4 coal-fired power plants that have been operation in Turkey. The Environmental Impact Score was obtained for each power plant and their environmental performances were compared. It is expected that those environmental impact assessments will contribute to the decision-making process for environmental investments to those plants. The main advantage of the proposed method is its flexibility and ease of use.

Statistical modeling of an integrated boiler for coal fired thermal power plant.

Science.gov (United States)

Chandrasekharan, Sreepradha; Panda, Rames Chandra; Swaminathan, Bhuvaneswari Natrajan

2017-06-01

The coal fired thermal power plants plays major role in the power production in the world as they are available in abundance. Many of the existing power plants are based on the subcritical technology which can produce power with the efficiency of around 33%. But the newer plants are built on either supercritical or ultra-supercritical technology whose efficiency can be up to 50%. Main objective of the work is to enhance the efficiency of the existing subcritical power plants to compensate for the increasing demand. For achieving the objective, the statistical modeling of the boiler units such as economizer, drum and the superheater are initially carried out. The effectiveness of the developed models is tested using analysis methods like R 2 analysis and ANOVA (Analysis of Variance). The dependability of the process variable (temperature) on different manipulated variables is analyzed in the paper. Validations of the model are provided with their error analysis. Response surface methodology (RSM) supported by DOE (design of experiments) are implemented to optimize the operating parameters. Individual models along with the integrated model are used to study and design the predictive control of the coal-fired thermal power plant.

Reliability and statistical power analysis of cortical and subcortical FreeSurfer metrics in a large sample of healthy elderly.

Science.gov (United States)

Liem, Franziskus; Mérillat, Susan; Bezzola, Ladina; Hirsiger, Sarah; Philipp, Michel; Madhyastha, Tara; Jäncke, Lutz

2015-03-01

FreeSurfer is a tool to quantify cortical and subcortical brain anatomy automatically and noninvasively. Previous studies have reported reliability and statistical power analyses in relatively small samples or only selected one aspect of brain anatomy. Here, we investigated reliability and statistical power of cortical thickness, surface area, volume, and the volume of subcortical structures in a large sample (N=189) of healthy elderly subjects (64+ years). Reliability (intraclass correlation coefficient) of cortical and subcortical parameters is generally high (cortical: ICCs>0.87, subcortical: ICCs>0.95). Surface-based smoothing increases reliability of cortical thickness maps, while it decreases reliability of cortical surface area and volume. Nevertheless, statistical power of all measures benefits from smoothing. When aiming to detect a 10% difference between groups, the number of subjects required to test effects with sufficient power over the entire cortex varies between cortical measures (cortical thickness: N=39, surface area: N=21, volume: N=81; 10mm smoothing, power=0.8, α=0.05). For subcortical regions this number is between 16 and 76 subjects, depending on the region. We also demonstrate the advantage of within-subject designs over between-subject designs. Furthermore, we publicly provide a tool that allows researchers to perform a priori power analysis and sensitivity analysis to help evaluate previously published studies and to design future studies with sufficient statistical power. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Specification of life cycle assessment in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abbaspour, M.; Kargari, N.; Mastouri, R.

2008-01-01

Life Cycle Assessment is an environmental management tool for assessing the environmental impacts of a product of a process. life cycle assessment involves the evaluation of environmental impacts through all stages of life cycle of a product or process. In other words life cycle assessment has a c radle to grave a pproach. Some results of life cycle assessment consist of pollution prevention, energy efficient system, material conservation, economic system and sustainable development. All power generation technologies affect the environment in one way or another. The main environmental impact does not always occur during operation of power plant. The life cycle assessment of nuclear power has entailed studying the entire fuel cycle from mine to deep repository, as well as the construction, operation and demolition of the power station. Nuclear power plays an important role in electricity production for several countries. even though the use of nuclear power remains controversial. But due to the shortage of fossil fuel energy resources many countries have started to try more alternation to their sources of energy production. A life cycle assessment could detect all environmental impacts of nuclear power from extracting resources, building facilities and transporting material through the final conversion to useful energy services

Environmental Assessment for power marketing policy for Southwestern Power Administration

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1993-12-01

Southwestern Power Administration (Southwestern) needs to renew expiring power sales contracts with new term (10 year) sales contracts. The existing contracts have been in place for several years and many will expire over the next ten years. Southwestern completed an Environmental Assessment on the existing power allocation in June, 1979 (a copy of the EA is attached), and there are no proposed additions of any major new generation resources, service to discrete major new loads, or major changes in operating parameters, beyond those included in the existing power allocation. Impacts from a no action plan, proposed alternative, and market power for less than 10 years are described.

Environmental Assessment for power marketing policy for Southwestern Power Administration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

Southwestern Power Administration (Southwestern) needs to renew expiring power sales contracts with new term (10 year) sales contracts. The existing contracts have been in place for several years and many will expire over the next ten years. Southwestern completed an Environmental Assessment on the existing power allocation in June, 1979 (a copy of the EA is attached), and there are no proposed additions of any major new generation resources, service to discrete major new loads, or major changes in operating parameters, beyond those included in the existing power allocation. Impacts from a no action plan, proposed alternative, and market power for less than 10 years are described

Risk assessment and nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bodansky, D.

1982-01-01

The range of risk perceptions involving nuclear power is so great that there is little hope of bridging extreme positions, but a consensus based upon reasoned discussion among uncommitted people could determine a sensible path. Our concerns over the uncertainties of risk assessment have made it increasingly difficult to make responsible decisions fast enough to deal with modern needs. The result is an immobility in energy matters that can point to a 2% reduction in oil use as its only triumph. The risk of nuclear war as a result of military action over energy issues suggests to some that the solution is to abolish nuclear power (however impractical) and to others that a rapid spread of nuclear power will eliminate energy as an incentive for war. If nuclear war is the major risk to consider, risk assessments need to include the risks of war, as well as those of carbon dioxide buildup and socio-economic disruptions, all of which loom larger than the risks of nuclear-plant accidents. Energy choices should be aimed at diminishing these major risks, even if they include the use of nuclear power. 26 references

Generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

2007-01-01

Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with a paramount information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform...... on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits to generate statistical scenarios of wind generation that accounts for the interdependence structure of prediction errors, in plus of respecting predictive distributions of wind...

The case for increasing the statistical power of eddy covariance ecosystem studies: why, where and how?

Science.gov (United States)

Hill, Timothy; Chocholek, Melanie; Clement, Robert

2017-06-01

Eddy covariance (EC) continues to provide invaluable insights into the dynamics of Earth's surface processes. However, despite its many strengths, spatial replication of EC at the ecosystem scale is rare. High equipment costs are likely to be partially responsible. This contributes to the low sampling, and even lower replication, of ecoregions in Africa, Oceania (excluding Australia) and South America. The level of replication matters as it directly affects statistical power. While the ergodicity of turbulence and temporal replication allow an EC tower to provide statistically robust flux estimates for its footprint, these principles do not extend to larger ecosystem scales. Despite the challenge of spatially replicating EC, it is clearly of interest to be able to use EC to provide statistically robust flux estimates for larger areas. We ask: How much spatial replication of EC is required for statistical confidence in our flux estimates of an ecosystem? We provide the reader with tools to estimate the number of EC towers needed to achieve a given statistical power. We show that for a typical ecosystem, around four EC towers are needed to have 95% statistical confidence that the annual flux of an ecosystem is nonzero. Furthermore, if the true flux is small relative to instrument noise and spatial variability, the number of towers needed can rise dramatically. We discuss approaches for improving statistical power and describe one solution: an inexpensive EC system that could help by making spatial replication more affordable. However, we note that diverting limited resources from other key measurements in order to allow spatial replication may not be optimal, and a balance needs to be struck. While individual EC towers are well suited to providing fluxes from the flux footprint, we emphasize that spatial replication is essential for statistically robust fluxes if a wider ecosystem is being studied. © 2016 The Authors Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley

Probabilistic assessment of fatigue life including statistical uncertainties in the S-N curve

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sudret, B.; Hornet, P.; Stephan, J.-M.; Guede, Z.; Lemaire, M.

2003-01-01

A probabilistic framework is set up to assess the fatigue life of components of nuclear power plants. It intends to incorporate all kinds of uncertainties such as those appearing in the specimen fatigue life, design sub-factor, mechanical model and applied loading. This paper details the first step, which corresponds to the statistical treatment of the fatigue specimen test data. The specimen fatigue life at stress amplitude S is represented by a lognormal random variable whose mean and standard deviation depend on S. This characterization is then used to compute the random fatigue life of a component submitted to a single kind of cycles. Precisely the mean and coefficient of variation of this quantity are studied, as well as the reliability associated with the (deterministic) design value. (author)

Statistical annual report 2003 of Furnas - Electrical Power plants and Co., RJ, Brazil. Calendar year 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

This document presents the statistical annual report of Furnas Power Plants and Co, reporting the results obtained during the calendar year of 2003 and the evolution in the last five years, allowing a general and comparative views of the company performance focusing the power generation and transmission, economic and financial results

Statistical study of undulator radiated power by a classical detection system in the mm-wave regime

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. Eliran

2009-05-01

Full Text Available The statistics of FEL spontaneous emission power detected with a detector integration time much larger than the slippage time has been measured in many previous works at high frequencies. In such cases the quantum (shot noise generated in the detection process is dominant. We have measured spontaneous emission in the Israeli electrostatic accelerator FEL (EA-FEL operating in the mm-wave lengths. In this regime the detector is based on a diode rectifier for which the detector quantum noise is negligible. The measurements were repeated numerous times in order to create a sample space with sufficient data enabling evaluation of the statistical features of the radiated power. The probability density function of the radiated power was found and its moments were calculated. The results of analytical and numerical models are compared to those obtained in experimental measurements.

Statistical modeling of an integrated boiler for coal fired thermal power plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sreepradha Chandrasekharan

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The coal fired thermal power plants plays major role in the power production in the world as they are available in abundance. Many of the existing power plants are based on the subcritical technology which can produce power with the efficiency of around 33%. But the newer plants are built on either supercritical or ultra-supercritical technology whose efficiency can be up to 50%. Main objective of the work is to enhance the efficiency of the existing subcritical power plants to compensate for the increasing demand. For achieving the objective, the statistical modeling of the boiler units such as economizer, drum and the superheater are initially carried out. The effectiveness of the developed models is tested using analysis methods like R2 analysis and ANOVA (Analysis of Variance. The dependability of the process variable (temperature on different manipulated variables is analyzed in the paper. Validations of the model are provided with their error analysis. Response surface methodology (RSM supported by DOE (design of experiments are implemented to optimize the operating parameters. Individual models along with the integrated model are used to study and design the predictive control of the coal-fired thermal power plant. Keywords: Chemical engineering, Applied mathematics

Use of Statistical Information for Damage Assessment of Civil Engineering Structures

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kirkegaard, Poul Henning; Andersen, P.

This paper considers the problem of damage assessment of civil engineering structures using statistical information. The aim of the paper is to review how researchers recently have tried to solve the problem. It is pointed out that the problem consists of not only how to use the statistical...

Development of nuclear power plant online monitoring system using statistical quality control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An, Sang Ha

2006-02-01

Statistical Quality Control techniques have been applied to many aspects of industrial engineering. An application to nuclear power plant maintenance and control is also presented that can greatly improve plant safety. As a demonstration of such an approach, a specific system is analyzed: the reactor coolant pumps (RCP) and the fouling resistance of heat exchanger. This research uses Shewart X-bar, R charts, Cumulative Sum charts (CUSUM), and Sequential Probability Ratio Test (SPRT) to analyze the process for the state of statistical control. And we made Control Chart Analyzer (CCA) to support these analyses that can make a decision of error in process. The analysis shows that statistical process control methods can be applied as an early warning system capable of identifying significant equipment problems well in advance of traditional control room alarm indicators. Such a system would provide operators with enough time to respond to possible emergency situations and thus improve plant safety and reliability

The statistical power to detect cross-scale interactions at macroscales

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Tyler; Fergus, C. Emi; Stow, Craig A.; Cheruvelil, Kendra S.; Soranno, Patricia A.

2016-01-01

Macroscale studies of ecological phenomena are increasingly common because stressors such as climate and land-use change operate at large spatial and temporal scales. Cross-scale interactions (CSIs), where ecological processes operating at one spatial or temporal scale interact with processes operating at another scale, have been documented in a variety of ecosystems and contribute to complex system dynamics. However, studies investigating CSIs are often dependent on compiling multiple data sets from different sources to create multithematic, multiscaled data sets, which results in structurally complex, and sometimes incomplete data sets. The statistical power to detect CSIs needs to be evaluated because of their importance and the challenge of quantifying CSIs using data sets with complex structures and missing observations. We studied this problem using a spatially hierarchical model that measures CSIs between regional agriculture and its effects on the relationship between lake nutrients and lake productivity. We used an existing large multithematic, multiscaled database, LAke multiscaled GeOSpatial, and temporal database (LAGOS), to parameterize the power analysis simulations. We found that the power to detect CSIs was more strongly related to the number of regions in the study rather than the number of lakes nested within each region. CSI power analyses will not only help ecologists design large-scale studies aimed at detecting CSIs, but will also focus attention on CSI effect sizes and the degree to which they are ecologically relevant and detectable with large data sets.

[An investigation of the statistical power of the effect size in randomized controlled trials for the treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus using Chinese medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Li-Xin; Liu, Jian-Ping

2012-01-01

To investigate whether the power of the effect size was based on adequate sample size in randomized controlled trials (RCTs) for the treatment of patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) using Chinese medicine. China Knowledge Resource Integrated Database (CNKI), VIP Database for Chinese Technical Periodicals (VIP), Chinese Biomedical Database (CBM), and Wangfang Data were systematically recruited using terms like "Xiaoke" or diabetes, Chinese herbal medicine, patent medicine, traditional Chinese medicine, randomized, controlled, blinded, and placebo-controlled. Limitation was set on the intervention course > or = 3 months in order to identify the information of outcome assessement and the sample size. Data collection forms were made according to the checking lists found in the CONSORT statement. Independent double data extractions were performed on all included trials. The statistical power of the effects size for each RCT study was assessed using sample size calculation equations. (1) A total of 207 RCTs were included, including 111 superiority trials and 96 non-inferiority trials. (2) Among the 111 superiority trials, fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and glycosylated hemoglobin HbA1c (HbA1c) outcome measure were reported in 9% and 12% of the RCTs respectively with the sample size > 150 in each trial. For the outcome of HbA1c, only 10% of the RCTs had more than 80% power. For FPG, 23% of the RCTs had more than 80% power. (3) In the 96 non-inferiority trials, the outcomes FPG and HbA1c were reported as 31% and 36% respectively. These RCTs had a samples size > 150. For HbA1c only 36% of the RCTs had more than 80% power. For FPG, only 27% of the studies had more than 80% power. The sample size for statistical analysis was distressingly low and most RCTs did not achieve 80% power. In order to obtain a sufficient statistic power, it is recommended that clinical trials should establish clear research objective and hypothesis first, and choose scientific and evidence

Fast Computation and Assessment Methods in Power System Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Nagata, Masaki

Power system analysis is essential for efficient and reliable power system operation and control. Recently, online security assessment system has become of importance, as more efficient use of power networks is eagerly required. In this article, fast power system analysis techniques such as contingency screening, parallel processing and intelligent systems application are briefly surveyed from the view point of their application to online dynamic security assessment.

Simulating European wind power generation applying statistical downscaling to reanalysis data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

González-Aparicio, I.; Monforti, F.; Volker, P.; Zucker, A.; Careri, F.; Huld, T.; Badger, J.

2017-01-01

Highlights: •Wind speed spatial resolution highly influences calculated wind power peaks and ramps. •Reduction of wind power generation uncertainties using statistical downscaling. •Publicly available dataset of wind power generation hourly time series at NUTS2. -- Abstract: The growing share of electricity production from solar and mainly wind resources constantly increases the stochastic nature of the power system. Modelling the high share of renewable energy sources – and in particular wind power – crucially depends on the adequate representation of the intermittency and characteristics of the wind resource which is related to the accuracy of the approach in converting wind speed data into power values. One of the main factors contributing to the uncertainty in these conversion methods is the selection of the spatial resolution. Although numerical weather prediction models can simulate wind speeds at higher spatial resolution (up to 1 × 1 km) than a reanalysis (generally, ranging from about 25 km to 70 km), they require high computational resources and massive storage systems: therefore, the most common alternative is to use the reanalysis data. However, local wind features could not be captured by the use of a reanalysis technique and could be translated into misinterpretations of the wind power peaks, ramping capacities, the behaviour of power prices, as well as bidding strategies for the electricity market. This study contributes to the understanding what is captured by different wind speeds spatial resolution datasets, the importance of using high resolution data for the conversion into power and the implications in power system analyses. It is proposed a methodology to increase the spatial resolution from a reanalysis. This study presents an open access renewable generation time series dataset for the EU-28 and neighbouring countries at hourly intervals and at different geographical aggregation levels (country, bidding zone and administrative

How Should We Assess the Fit of Rasch-Type Models? Approximating the Power of Goodness-of-Fit Statistics in Categorical Data Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Maydeu-Olivares, Alberto; Montano, Rosa

2013-01-01

We investigate the performance of three statistics, R [subscript 1], R [subscript 2] (Glas in "Psychometrika" 53:525-546, 1988), and M [subscript 2] (Maydeu-Olivares & Joe in "J. Am. Stat. Assoc." 100:1009-1020, 2005, "Psychometrika" 71:713-732, 2006) to assess the overall fit of a one-parameter logistic model…

Power flow as a complement to statistical energy analysis and finite element analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Cuschieri, J. M.

1987-01-01

Present methods of analysis of the structural response and the structure-borne transmission of vibrational energy use either finite element (FE) techniques or statistical energy analysis (SEA) methods. The FE methods are a very useful tool at low frequencies where the number of resonances involved in the analysis is rather small. On the other hand SEA methods can predict with acceptable accuracy the response and energy transmission between coupled structures at relatively high frequencies where the structural modal density is high and a statistical approach is the appropriate solution. In the mid-frequency range, a relatively large number of resonances exist which make finite element method too costly. On the other hand SEA methods can only predict an average level form. In this mid-frequency range a possible alternative is to use power flow techniques, where the input and flow of vibrational energy to excited and coupled structural components can be expressed in terms of input and transfer mobilities. This power flow technique can be extended from low to high frequencies and this can be integrated with established FE models at low frequencies and SEA models at high frequencies to form a verification of the method. This method of structural analysis using power flo and mobility methods, and its integration with SEA and FE analysis is applied to the case of two thin beams joined together at right angles.

Indoor Soiling Method and Outdoor Statistical Risk Analysis of Photovoltaic Power Plants

Science.gov (United States)

Rajasekar, Vidyashree

This is a two-part thesis. Part 1 presents an approach for working towards the development of a standardized artificial soiling method for laminated photovoltaic (PV) cells or mini-modules. Construction of an artificial chamber to maintain controlled environmental conditions and components/chemicals used in artificial soil formulation is briefly explained. Both poly-Si mini-modules and a single cell mono-Si coupons were soiled and characterization tests such as I-V, reflectance and quantum efficiency (QE) were carried out on both soiled, and cleaned coupons. From the results obtained, poly-Si mini-modules proved to be a good measure of soil uniformity, as any non-uniformity present would not result in a smooth curve during I-V measurements. The challenges faced while executing reflectance and QE characterization tests on poly-Si due to smaller size cells was eliminated on the mono-Si coupons with large cells to obtain highly repeatable measurements. This study indicates that the reflectance measurements between 600-700 nm wavelengths can be used as a direct measure of soil density on the modules. Part 2 determines the most dominant failure modes of field aged PV modules using experimental data obtained in the field and statistical analysis, FMECA (Failure Mode, Effect, and Criticality Analysis). The failure and degradation modes of about 744 poly-Si glass/polymer frameless modules fielded for 18 years under the cold-dry climate of New York was evaluated. Defect chart, degradation rates (both string and module levels) and safety map were generated using the field measured data. A statistical reliability tool, FMECA that uses Risk Priority Number (RPN) is used to determine the dominant failure or degradation modes in the strings and modules by means of ranking and prioritizing the modes. This study on PV power plants considers all the failure and degradation modes from both safety and performance perspectives. The indoor and outdoor soiling studies were jointly

Application of extended statistical combination of uncertainties methodology for digital nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

In, Wang Ki; Uh, Keun Sun; Chul, Kim Heui [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)

1995-02-01

A technically more direct statistical combinations of uncertainties methodology, extended SCU (XSCU), was applied to statistically combine the uncertainties associated with the DNBR alarm setpoint and the DNBR trip setpoint of digital nuclear power plants. The modified SCU (MSCU) methodology is currently used as the USNRC approved design methodology to perform the same function. In this report, the MSCU and XSCU methodologies were compared in terms of the total uncertainties and the net margins to the DNBR alarm and trip setpoints. The MSCU methodology resulted in the small total penalties due to a significantly negative bias which are quite large. However the XSCU methodology gave the virtually unbiased total uncertainties. The net margins to the DNBR alarm and trip setpoints by the MSCU methodology agree with those by the XSCU methodology within statistical variations. (Author) 12 refs., 17 figs., 5 tabs.

Statistical analysis in MSW collection performance assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Teixeira, Carlos Afonso; Avelino, Catarina; Ferreira, Fátima; Bentes, Isabel

2014-09-01

The increase of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) generated over the last years forces waste managers pursuing more effective collection schemes, technically viable, environmentally effective and economically sustainable. The assessment of MSW services using performance indicators plays a crucial role for improving service quality. In this work, we focus on the relevance of regular system monitoring as a service assessment tool. In particular, we select and test a core-set of MSW collection performance indicators (effective collection distance, effective collection time and effective fuel consumption) that highlights collection system strengths and weaknesses and supports pro-active management decision-making and strategic planning. A statistical analysis was conducted with data collected in mixed collection system of Oporto Municipality, Portugal, during one year, a week per month. This analysis provides collection circuits' operational assessment and supports effective short-term municipality collection strategies at the level of, e.g., collection frequency and timetables, and type of containers. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Blind image quality assessment based on aesthetic and statistical quality-aware features

Science.gov (United States)

Jenadeleh, Mohsen; Masaeli, Mohammad Masood; Moghaddam, Mohsen Ebrahimi

2017-07-01

The main goal of image quality assessment (IQA) methods is the emulation of human perceptual image quality judgments. Therefore, the correlation between objective scores of these methods with human perceptual scores is considered as their performance metric. Human judgment of the image quality implicitly includes many factors when assessing perceptual image qualities such as aesthetics, semantics, context, and various types of visual distortions. The main idea of this paper is to use a host of features that are commonly employed in image aesthetics assessment in order to improve blind image quality assessment (BIQA) methods accuracy. We propose an approach that enriches the features of BIQA methods by integrating a host of aesthetics image features with the features of natural image statistics derived from multiple domains. The proposed features have been used for augmenting five different state-of-the-art BIQA methods, which use statistical natural scene statistics features. Experiments were performed on seven benchmark image quality databases. The experimental results showed significant improvement of the accuracy of the methods.

Ground assessment methods for nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1985-01-01

It is needless to say that nuclear power plant must be constructed on the most stable and safe ground. Reliable assessment method is required for the purpose. The Ground Integrity Sub-committee of the Committee of Civil Engineering of Nuclear Power Plant started five working groups, the purpose of which is to systematize the assessment procedures including geological survey, ground examination and construction design. The works of working groups are to establishing assessment method of activities of faults, standardizing the rock classification method, standardizing assessment and indication method of ground properties, standardizing test methods and establishing the application standard for design and construction. Flow diagrams for the procedures of geological survey, for the investigation on fault activities and ground properties of area where nuclear reactor and important outdoor equipments are scheduled to construct, were established. And further, flow diagrams for applying investigated results to design and construction of plant, and for determining procedure of liquidification nature of ground etc. were also established. These systematized and standardized methods of investigation are expected to yield reliable data for assessment of construction site of nuclear power plant and lead to the safety of construction and operation in the future. In addition, the execution of these systematized and detailed preliminary investigation for determining the construction site of nuclear power plant will make much contribution for obtaining nation-wide understanding and faith for the project. (Ishimitsu, A.)

A testing procedure for wind turbine generators based on the power grid statistical model

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Farajzadehbibalan, Saber; Ramezani, Mohammad Hossein; Nielsen, Peter

2017-01-01

In this study, a comprehensive test procedure is developed to test wind turbine generators with a hardware-in-loop setup. The procedure employs the statistical model of the power grid considering the restrictions of the test facility and system dynamics. Given the model in the latent space...

Powerful Inference With the D-Statistic on Low-Coverage Whole-Genome Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Soraggi, Samuele; Wiuf, Carsten; Albrechtsen, Anders

2018-01-01

The detection of ancient gene flow between human populations is an important issue in population genetics. A common tool for detecting ancient admixture events is the D-statistic. The D-statistic is based on the hypothesis of a genetic relationship that involves four populations, whose correctness...... is assessed by evaluating specific coincidences of alleles between the groups. When working with high throughput sequencing data calling genotypes accurately is not always possible, therefore the D-statistic currently samples a single base from the reads of one individual per population. This implies ignoring...... much of the information in the data, an issue especially striking in the case of ancient genomes. We provide a significant improvement to overcome the problems of the D-statistic by considering all reads from multiple individuals in each population. We also apply type-specific error correction...

Assessment on Startup Ramp Rate and Threshold Power of OPR1000

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Kiyoung; Kim, Yongbae; Cha, Gyunho; Kim, Yongdeog [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2014-05-15

This paper summarizes PCI assessment according to several startup ramp rates and threshold power assessment of OPR1000. The definition of threshold power is maximum value in power range that can increase startup ramp rate rapidly. FALCON code is used for PCI assessment and it is analyzed for once-burned fuel because it is the most sensitive to PCI failure. The objective of the PCI analysis is to assess the cladding stress state under various power ramp conditions at the peak power node location. The PCI analyses were conducted for the once-burned fuel from the start of the second cycle to plant power 100%. This paper presents both the PCI analysis according to startup ramp rates and threshold power assessment result like below. · The more startup ramp rate is increased, the more PCI failure probability is decreased in low power range (≤ 40%). · PCI failure is not occurred even though startup ramp rate is 10%/hr until the plant power reaches 55%.

Assessment on Startup Ramp Rate and Threshold Power of OPR1000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Kiyoung; Kim, Yongbae; Cha, Gyunho; Kim, Yongdeog

2014-01-01

This paper summarizes PCI assessment according to several startup ramp rates and threshold power assessment of OPR1000. The definition of threshold power is maximum value in power range that can increase startup ramp rate rapidly. FALCON code is used for PCI assessment and it is analyzed for once-burned fuel because it is the most sensitive to PCI failure. The objective of the PCI analysis is to assess the cladding stress state under various power ramp conditions at the peak power node location. The PCI analyses were conducted for the once-burned fuel from the start of the second cycle to plant power 100%. This paper presents both the PCI analysis according to startup ramp rates and threshold power assessment result like below. · The more startup ramp rate is increased, the more PCI failure probability is decreased in low power range (≤ 40%). · PCI failure is not occurred even though startup ramp rate is 10%/hr until the plant power reaches 55%

A Statistical Approach to Planning Reserved Electric Power for Railway Infrastructure Administration

OpenAIRE

Brabec, M. (Marek); Pelikán, E. (Emil); Konár, O. (Ondřej); Kasanický, I. (Ivan); Juruš, P. (Pavel); Sadil, J.; Blažek, P.

2013-01-01

One of the requirements on railway infrastructure administration is to provide electricity for day-to-day operation of railways. We propose a statistically based approach for the estimation of maximum 15-minute power within a calendar month for a given region. This quantity serves as a basis of contracts between railway infrastructure administration and electricity distribution system operator. We show that optimization of the prediction is possible, based on underlying loss function deriv...

A new Markov-chain-related statistical approach for modelling synthetic wind power time series

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pesch, T; Hake, J F; Schröders, S; Allelein, H J

2015-01-01

The integration of rising shares of volatile wind power in the generation mix is a major challenge for the future energy system. To address the uncertainties involved in wind power generation, models analysing and simulating the stochastic nature of this energy source are becoming increasingly important. One statistical approach that has been frequently used in the literature is the Markov chain approach. Recently, the method was identified as being of limited use for generating wind time series with time steps shorter than 15–40 min as it is not capable of reproducing the autocorrelation characteristics accurately. This paper presents a new Markov-chain-related statistical approach that is capable of solving this problem by introducing a variable second lag. Furthermore, additional features are presented that allow for the further adjustment of the generated synthetic time series. The influences of the model parameter settings are examined by meaningful parameter variations. The suitability of the approach is demonstrated by an application analysis with the example of the wind feed-in in Germany. It shows that—in contrast to conventional Markov chain approaches—the generated synthetic time series do not systematically underestimate the required storage capacity to balance wind power fluctuation. (paper)

A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ozonoff Al

2010-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. Results This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. Conclusions The GAM

A power comparison of generalized additive models and the spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting.

Science.gov (United States)

Young, Robin L; Weinberg, Janice; Vieira, Verónica; Ozonoff, Al; Webster, Thomas F

2010-07-19

A common, important problem in spatial epidemiology is measuring and identifying variation in disease risk across a study region. In application of statistical methods, the problem has two parts. First, spatial variation in risk must be detected across the study region and, second, areas of increased or decreased risk must be correctly identified. The location of such areas may give clues to environmental sources of exposure and disease etiology. One statistical method applicable in spatial epidemiologic settings is a generalized additive model (GAM) which can be applied with a bivariate LOESS smoother to account for geographic location as a possible predictor of disease status. A natural hypothesis when applying this method is whether residential location of subjects is associated with the outcome, i.e. is the smoothing term necessary? Permutation tests are a reasonable hypothesis testing method and provide adequate power under a simple alternative hypothesis. These tests have yet to be compared to other spatial statistics. This research uses simulated point data generated under three alternative hypotheses to evaluate the properties of the permutation methods and compare them to the popular spatial scan statistic in a case-control setting. Case 1 was a single circular cluster centered in a circular study region. The spatial scan statistic had the highest power though the GAM method estimates did not fall far behind. Case 2 was a single point source located at the center of a circular cluster and Case 3 was a line source at the center of the horizontal axis of a square study region. Each had linearly decreasing logodds with distance from the point. The GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in Cases 2 and 3. Comparing sensitivity, measured as the proportion of the exposure source correctly identified as high or low risk, the GAM methods outperformed the scan statistic in all three Cases. The GAM permutation testing methods provide a regression

Performance assessment of topologically diverse power systems subjected to hurricane events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winkler, James; Duenas-Osorio, Leonardo; Stein, Robert; Subramanian, Devika

2010-01-01

Large tropical cyclones cause severe damage to major cities along the United States Gulf Coast annually. A diverse collection of engineering and statistical models are currently used to estimate the geographical distribution of power outage probabilities stemming from these hurricanes to aid in storm preparedness and recovery efforts. Graph theoretic studies of power networks have separately attempted to link abstract network topology to transmission and distribution system reliability. However, few works have employed both techniques to unravel the intimate connection between network damage arising from storms, topology, and system reliability. This investigation presents a new methodology combining hurricane damage predictions and topological assessment to characterize the impact of hurricanes upon power system reliability. Component fragility models are applied to predict failure probability for individual transmission and distribution power network elements simultaneously. The damage model is calibrated using power network component failure data for Harris County, TX, USA caused by Hurricane Ike in September of 2008, resulting in a mean outage prediction error of 15.59% and low standard deviation. Simulated hurricane events are then applied to measure the hurricane reliability of three topologically distinct transmission networks. The rate of system performance decline is shown to depend on their topological structure. Reliability is found to correlate directly with topological features, such as network meshedness, centrality, and clustering, and the compact irregular ring mesh topology is identified as particularly favorable, which can influence regional lifeline policy for retrofit and hardening activities to withstand hurricane events.

The influence of the presence of deviant item score patterns on the power of a person-fit statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Meijer, R.R.

1994-01-01

In studies investigating the power of person-fit statistics it is often assumed that the item parameters that are used to calculate the statistics can be estimated in a sample without aberrant persons. However, in practical test applications calibration samples most likely will contain aberrant

Assessment of Power Quality Problems for TRIGA PUSPATI Reactor (RTP)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mohd Fazli Zakaria; Ramachandaramurthy, V.K.

2016-01-01

The electrical power systems are exposed to different types of power quality disturbances. Investigation and monitoring of power quality is necessary to maintain accurate operation of sensitive equipment especially for nuclear installations. This paper will discuss the power quality problems observed at the electrical sources of PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP). Assessment of power quality requires the identification of any anomalous behavior on a power system, which adversely affects the normal operation of electrical or electronic equipment. A power quality assessment involves gathering data resources; analyzing the data (with reference to power quality standards) then, if problems exist, recommendation of mitigation techniques must be considered. Field power quality data is collected by power quality recorder and analyzed with reference to power quality standards. Normally the electrical power is supplied to the RTP via two sources in order to keep a good reliability where each of them is designed to carry the full load. The assessment of power quality during reactor operation was performed for both electrical sources. There were several disturbances such as voltage harmonics and flicker that exceeded the thresholds. (author)

Statistical interpretation of transient current power-law decay in colloidal quantum dot arrays

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sibatov, R T, E-mail: ren_sib@bk.ru [Ulyanovsk State University, 432000, 42 Leo Tolstoy Street, Ulyanovsk (Russian Federation)

2011-08-01

A new statistical model of the charge transport in colloidal quantum dot arrays is proposed. It takes into account Coulomb blockade forbidding multiple occupancy of nanocrystals and the influence of energetic disorder of interdot space. The model explains power-law current transients and the presence of the memory effect. The fractional differential analogue of the Ohm law is found phenomenologically for nanocrystal arrays. The model combines ideas that were considered as conflicting by other authors: the Scher-Montroll idea about the power-law distribution of waiting times in localized states for disordered semiconductors is applied taking into account Coulomb blockade; Novikov's condition about the asymptotic power-law distribution of time intervals between successful current pulses in conduction channels is fulfilled; and the carrier injection blocking predicted by Ginger and Greenham (2000 J. Appl. Phys. 87 1361) takes place.

Statistical interpretation of transient current power-law decay in colloidal quantum dot arrays

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sibatov, R T

2011-01-01

A new statistical model of the charge transport in colloidal quantum dot arrays is proposed. It takes into account Coulomb blockade forbidding multiple occupancy of nanocrystals and the influence of energetic disorder of interdot space. The model explains power-law current transients and the presence of the memory effect. The fractional differential analogue of the Ohm law is found phenomenologically for nanocrystal arrays. The model combines ideas that were considered as conflicting by other authors: the Scher-Montroll idea about the power-law distribution of waiting times in localized states for disordered semiconductors is applied taking into account Coulomb blockade; Novikov's condition about the asymptotic power-law distribution of time intervals between successful current pulses in conduction channels is fulfilled; and the carrier injection blocking predicted by Ginger and Greenham (2000 J. Appl. Phys. 87 1361) takes place.

Spreadsheets as tools for statistical computing and statistics education

OpenAIRE

Neuwirth, Erich

2000-01-01

Spreadsheets are an ubiquitous program category, and we will discuss their use in statistics and statistics education on various levels, ranging from very basic examples to extremely powerful methods. Since the spreadsheet paradigm is very familiar to many potential users, using it as the interface to statistical methods can make statistics more easily accessible.

Knowledge based system for fouling assessment of power plant boiler

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Afgan, N.H.; He, X.; Carvalho, M.G.; Azevedo, J.L.T.

1999-01-01

The paper presents the design of an expert system for fouling assessment in power plant boilers. It is an on-line expert system based on selected criteria for the fouling assessment. Using criteria for fouling assessment based on 'clean' and 'not-clean' radiation heat flux measurements, the diagnostic variable are defined for the boiler heat transfer surface. The development of the prototype knowledge-based system for fouling assessment in power plants boiler comprise the integrations of the elements including knowledge base, inference procedure and prototype configuration. Demonstration of the prototype knowledge-based system for fouling assessment was performed on the Sines power plant. It is a 300 MW coal fired power plant. 12 fields are used with 3 on each side of boiler

Steady state security assessment in deregulated power systems

Science.gov (United States)

Manjure, Durgesh Padmakar

Power system operations are undergoing changes, brought about primarily due to deregulation and subsequent restructuring of the power industry. The primary intention of the introduction of deregulation in power systems was to bring about competition and improved customer focus. The underlying motive was increased economic benefit. Present day power system analysis is much different than what it was earlier, essentially due to the transformation of the power industry from being cost-based to one that is price-based and due to open access of transmission networks to the various market participants. Power is now treated as a commodity and is traded in an open market. The resultant interdependence of the technical criteria and the economic considerations has only accentuated the need for accurate analysis in power systems. The main impetus in security analysis studies is on efficient assessment of the post-contingency status of the system, accuracy being of secondary consideration. In most cases, given the time frame involved, it is not feasible to run a complete AC load flow for determining the post-contingency state of the system. Quite often, it is not warranted as well, as an indication of the state of the system is desired rather than the exact quantification of the various state variables. With the inception of deregulation, transmission networks are subjected to a host of multilateral transactions, which would influence physical system quantities like real power flows, security margins and voltage levels. For efficient asset utilization and maximization of the revenue, more often than not, transmission networks are operated under stressed conditions, close to security limits. Therefore, a quantitative assessment of the extent to which each transaction adversely affects the transmission network is required. This needs to be done accurately as the feasibility of the power transactions and subsequent decisions (execution, curtailment, pricing) would depend upon the

Kappa statistic to measure agreement beyond chance in free-response assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Carpentier, Marc; Combescure, Christophe; Merlini, Laura; Perneger, Thomas V

2017-04-19

The usual kappa statistic requires that all observations be enumerated. However, in free-response assessments, only positive (or abnormal) findings are notified, but negative (or normal) findings are not. This situation occurs frequently in imaging or other diagnostic studies. We propose here a kappa statistic that is suitable for free-response assessments. We derived the equivalent of Cohen's kappa statistic for two raters under the assumption that the number of possible findings for any given patient is very large, as well as a formula for sampling variance that is applicable to independent observations (for clustered observations, a bootstrap procedure is proposed). The proposed statistic was applied to a real-life dataset, and compared with the common practice of collapsing observations within a finite number of regions of interest. The free-response kappa is computed from the total numbers of discordant (b and c) and concordant positive (d) observations made in all patients, as 2d/(b + c + 2d). In 84 full-body magnetic resonance imaging procedures in children that were evaluated by 2 independent raters, the free-response kappa statistic was 0.820. Aggregation of results within regions of interest resulted in overestimation of agreement beyond chance. The free-response kappa provides an estimate of agreement beyond chance in situations where only positive findings are reported by raters.

Preliminary regulatory assessment of nuclear power plants vulnerabilities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kostadinov, V.; Petelin, S.

2004-01-01

Preliminary attempts to develop models for nuclear regulatory vulnerability assessment of nuclear power plants are presented. Development of the philosophy and computer tools could be new and important insight for management of nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies who face difficult questions about how to assess the vulnerability of nuclear power plants and other nuclear facilities to external and internal threats. In the situation where different and hidden threat sources are dispersed throughout the world, the assessment of security and safe operation of nuclear power plants is very important. Capability to evaluate plant vulnerability to different kinds of threats, like human and natural occurrences and terrorist attacks and preparation of emergency response plans and estimation of costs are of vital importance for assurance of national security. On the basis of such vital insights, nuclear operators and nuclear regulatory bodies could plan and optimise changes in oversight procedures, organisations, equipment, hardware and software to reduce risks taking into account security and safety of nuclear power plants operation, budget, manpower, and other limitations. Initial qualitative estimations of adapted assessments for nuclear applications are shortly presented. (author)

Pedagogical Utilization and Assessment of the Statistic Online Computational Resource in Introductory Probability and Statistics Courses.

Science.gov (United States)

Dinov, Ivo D; Sanchez, Juana; Christou, Nicolas

2008-01-01

Technology-based instruction represents a new recent pedagogical paradigm that is rooted in the realization that new generations are much more comfortable with, and excited about, new technologies. The rapid technological advancement over the past decade has fueled an enormous demand for the integration of modern networking, informational and computational tools with classical pedagogical instruments. Consequently, teaching with technology typically involves utilizing a variety of IT and multimedia resources for online learning, course management, electronic course materials, and novel tools of communication, engagement, experimental, critical thinking and assessment.The NSF-funded Statistics Online Computational Resource (SOCR) provides a number of interactive tools for enhancing instruction in various undergraduate and graduate courses in probability and statistics. These resources include online instructional materials, statistical calculators, interactive graphical user interfaces, computational and simulation applets, tools for data analysis and visualization. The tools provided as part of SOCR include conceptual simulations and statistical computing interfaces, which are designed to bridge between the introductory and the more advanced computational and applied probability and statistics courses. In this manuscript, we describe our designs for utilizing SOCR technology in instruction in a recent study. In addition, present the results of the effectiveness of using SOCR tools at two different course intensity levels on three outcome measures: exam scores, student satisfaction and choice of technology to complete assignments. Learning styles assessment was completed at baseline. We have used three very different designs for three different undergraduate classes. Each course included a treatment group, using the SOCR resources, and a control group, using classical instruction techniques. Our findings include marginal effects of the SOCR treatment per individual

Hysteresis and Power-Law Statistics during temperature induced martensitic transformation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paul, Arya; Sengupta, Surajit; Rao, Madan

2011-01-01

We study hysteresis in temperature induced martensitic transformation using a 2D model solid exhibiting a square to rhombic structural transition. We find that upon quenching, the high temperature square phase, martensites are nucleated at sites having large non-affineness and ultimately invades the whole of the high temperature square phase. On heating the martensite, the high temperature square phase is restored. The transformation proceeds through avalanches. The amplitude and the time-duration of these avalanches exhibit power-law statistics both during heating and cooling of the system. The exponents corresponding to heating and cooling are different thereby indicating that the nucleation and dissolution of the product phase follows different transformation mechanism.

Power analysis as a tool to identify statistically informative indicators for monitoring coral reef disturbances.

Science.gov (United States)

Van Wynsberge, Simon; Gilbert, Antoine; Guillemot, Nicolas; Heintz, Tom; Tremblay-Boyer, Laura

2017-07-01

Extensive biological field surveys are costly and time consuming. To optimize sampling and ensure regular monitoring on the long term, identifying informative indicators of anthropogenic disturbances is a priority. In this study, we used 1800 candidate indicators by combining metrics measured from coral, fish, and macro-invertebrate assemblages surveyed from 2006 to 2012 in the vicinity of an ongoing mining project in the Voh-Koné-Pouembout lagoon, New Caledonia. We performed a power analysis to identify a subset of indicators which would best discriminate temporal changes due to a simulated chronic anthropogenic impact. Only 4% of tested indicators were likely to detect a 10% annual decrease of values with sufficient power (>0.80). Corals generally exerted higher statistical power than macro-invertebrates and fishes because of lower natural variability and higher occurrence. For the same reasons, higher taxonomic ranks provided higher power than lower taxonomic ranks. Nevertheless, a number of families of common sedentary or sessile macro-invertebrates and fishes also performed well in detecting changes: Echinometridae, Isognomidae, Muricidae, Tridacninae, Arcidae, and Turbinidae for macro-invertebrates and Pomacentridae, Labridae, and Chaetodontidae for fishes. Interestingly, these families did not provide high power in all geomorphological strata, suggesting that the ability of indicators in detecting anthropogenic impacts was closely linked to reef geomorphology. This study provides a first operational step toward identifying statistically relevant indicators of anthropogenic disturbances in New Caledonia's coral reefs, which can be useful in similar tropical reef ecosystems where little information is available regarding the responses of ecological indicators to anthropogenic disturbances.

WATER POLO GAME-RELATED STATISTICS IN WOMEN'S INTERNATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIPS: DIFFERENCES AND DISCRIMINATORY POWER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yolanda Escalante

2012-09-01

Full Text Available The aims of this study were (i to compare women's water polo game-related statistics by match outcome (winning and losing teams and phase (preliminary, classificatory, and semi-final/bronze medal/gold medal, and (ii identify characteristics that discriminate performances for each phase. The game-related statistics of the 124 women's matches played in five International Championships (World and European Championships were analyzed. Differences between winning and losing teams in each phase were determined using the chi-squared. A discriminant analysis was then performed according to context in each of the three phases. It was found that the game-related statistics differentiate the winning from the losing teams in each phase of an international championship. The differentiating variables were both offensive (centre goals, power-play goals, counterattack goal, assists, offensive fouls, steals, blocked shots, and won sprints and defensive (goalkeeper-blocked shots, goalkeeper-blocked inferiority shots, and goalkeeper-blocked 5-m shots. The discriminant analysis showed the game-related statistics to discriminate performance in all phases: preliminary, classificatory, and final phases (92%, 90%, and 83%, respectively. Two variables were discriminatory by match outcome (winning or losing teams in all three phases: goals and goalkeeper-blocked shots

Combining heuristic and statistical techniques in landslide hazard assessments

Science.gov (United States)

Cepeda, Jose; Schwendtner, Barbara; Quan, Byron; Nadim, Farrokh; Diaz, Manuel; Molina, Giovanni

2014-05-01

As a contribution to the Global Assessment Report 2013 - GAR2013, coordinated by the United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction - UNISDR, a drill-down exercise for landslide hazard assessment was carried out by entering the results of both heuristic and statistical techniques into a new but simple combination rule. The data available for this evaluation included landslide inventories, both historical and event-based. In addition to the application of a heuristic method used in the previous editions of GAR, the availability of inventories motivated the use of statistical methods. The heuristic technique is largely based on the Mora & Vahrson method, which estimates hazard as the product of susceptibility and triggering factors, where classes are weighted based on expert judgment and experience. Two statistical methods were also applied: the landslide index method, which estimates weights of the classes for the susceptibility and triggering factors based on the evidence provided by the density of landslides in each class of the factors; and the weights of evidence method, which extends the previous technique to include both positive and negative evidence of landslide occurrence in the estimation of weights for the classes. One key aspect during the hazard evaluation was the decision on the methodology to be chosen for the final assessment. Instead of opting for a single methodology, it was decided to combine the results of the three implemented techniques using a combination rule based on a normalization of the results of each method. The hazard evaluation was performed for both earthquake- and rainfall-induced landslides. The country chosen for the drill-down exercise was El Salvador. The results indicate that highest hazard levels are concentrated along the central volcanic chain and at the centre of the northern mountains.

Probabilistic risk assessment in the nuclear power industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fullwood, R.R.; Hall, R.E.

1988-01-01

This book describes the more important improvements in risk assessment methodology developed over the last decade. The book covers the following areas - a general view of risk pertaining to nuclear power, mathematics necessary to understand the text, a concise overview of the light water reactors and their features for protecting the public, probabilities and consequences calculated to form risk assessment to the plant, and 34 applications of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) in the power generation industry. There is a glossary of acronyms and unusual words and a list of references. (author)

Assessing Capacity Value of Wind Power

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frew, Bethany A.

2017-04-18

This presentation provides a high-level overview of assessing capacity value of wind power, including Impacts of multiple-year data sets, impacts of transmission assumptions, and future research needs.

[Development of "assessment guideline of family power for healthy life"].

Science.gov (United States)

Fukushima, M; Shimanouchi, S; Kamei, T; Takagai, E; Hoshino, Y; Sugiyama, I

1997-12-01

The purpose of this study is to develop "assessment guideline of family power for healthy life" aiming at expanding self-care power of family in community nursing practice. The subjects of this study covered those families in one hundred and fifty six instances that we had seized as subject for nursing care and study. The method of this study had constructed assessment guideline inductively out of each case, and modified it by applying to cases of families with health problems and others. As a result, we had formed nine items of "family power for healthy life" and three items of "conditions influencing family power for healthy life" for "assessment guideline of family power for healthy life".

Comparison and validation of statistical methods for predicting power outage durations in the event of hurricanes.

Science.gov (United States)

Nateghi, Roshanak; Guikema, Seth D; Quiring, Steven M

2011-12-01

This article compares statistical methods for modeling power outage durations during hurricanes and examines the predictive accuracy of these methods. Being able to make accurate predictions of power outage durations is valuable because the information can be used by utility companies to plan their restoration efforts more efficiently. This information can also help inform customers and public agencies of the expected outage times, enabling better collective response planning, and coordination of restoration efforts for other critical infrastructures that depend on electricity. In the long run, outage duration estimates for future storm scenarios may help utilities and public agencies better allocate risk management resources to balance the disruption from hurricanes with the cost of hardening power systems. We compare the out-of-sample predictive accuracy of five distinct statistical models for estimating power outage duration times caused by Hurricane Ivan in 2004. The methods compared include both regression models (accelerated failure time (AFT) and Cox proportional hazard models (Cox PH)) and data mining techniques (regression trees, Bayesian additive regression trees (BART), and multivariate additive regression splines). We then validate our models against two other hurricanes. Our results indicate that BART yields the best prediction accuracy and that it is possible to predict outage durations with reasonable accuracy. © 2011 Society for Risk Analysis.

A escolha do teste estatístico - um tutorial em forma de apresentação em PowerPoint A PowerPoint®-based guide to assist in choosing the suitable statistical test

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

David Normando

2010-02-01

Full Text Available A seleção de métodos apropriados para a análise estatística pode parecer complexa, principalmente para estudantes de pós-graduação e pesquisadores no início da carreira científica. Por outro lado, a apresentação em PowerPoint é uma ferramenta comum para estudantes e pesquisadores. Assim, um tutorial de Bioestatística desenvolvido em uma apresentação em PowerPoint poderia estreitar a distância entre ortodontistas e a Bioestatística. Esse guia proporciona informações úteis e objetivas a respeito de vários métodos estatísticos empregando exemplos relacionados à Odontologia e, mais especificamente, à Ortodontia. Esse tutorial deve ser empregado, principalmente, para o usuário obter algumas respostas a questões comuns relacionadas ao teste mais apropriado para executar comparações entre grupos, examinar correlações e regressões ou analisar o erro do método. Também pode ser obtido auxílio para checar a distribuição dos dados (normal ou anormal e a escolha do gráfico mais adequado para a apresentação dos resultados. Esse guia* pode ainda ser de bastante utilidade para revisores de periódicos examinarem, de forma rápida, a adequabilidade do método estatístico apresentado em um artigo submetido à publicação.Selecting appropriate methods for statistical analysis may be difficult, especially for the students and others in the early phases of the research career. On the other hand, PowerPoint presentation is a very common tool to researchers and dental students, so a statistical guide based on PowerPoint could narrow the gap between orthodontist and the Biostatistics. This guide provides objective and useful information about several statistical methods using examples related to the dental field. A Power-Point presentation is employed to assist the user to find answers to common questions regarding Biostatistics, such as the most appropriate statistical test to compare groups, to make correlations and

Statistics of meteorological data at Tokai Research Establishment in JAERI

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sekita, Tsutomu; Tachibana, Haruo; Matsuura, Kenichi; Yamaguchi, Takenori

2003-12-01

The meteorological observation data at Tokai site were analyzed statistically based on a 'Guideline of meteorological statistics for the safety analysis of nuclear power reactor' (Nuclear Safety Commission on January 28, 1982; revised on March 29, 2001). This report shows the meteorological analysis of wind direction, wind velocity and atmospheric stability etc. to assess the public dose around the Tokai site caused by the released gaseous radioactivity. The statistical period of meteorological data is every 5 years from 1981 to 1995. (author)

From probabilistic forecasts to statistical scenarios of short-term wind power production

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pinson, Pierre; Papaefthymiou, George; Klockl, Bernd

2009-01-01

on the development of the forecast uncertainty through forecast series. However, this additional information may be paramount for a large class of time-dependent and multistage decision-making problems, e.g. optimal operation of combined wind-storage systems or multiple-market trading with different gate closures......Short-term (up to 2-3 days ahead) probabilistic forecasts of wind power provide forecast users with highly valuable information on the uncertainty of expected wind generation. Whatever the type of these probabilistic forecasts, they are produced on a per horizon basis, and hence do not inform....... This issue is addressed here by describing a method that permits the generation of statistical scenarios of short-term wind generation that accounts for both the interdependence structure of prediction errors and the predictive distributions of wind power production. The method is based on the conversion...

Statistical assessment of crosstalk enrichment between gene groups in biological networks.

Science.gov (United States)

McCormack, Theodore; Frings, Oliver; Alexeyenko, Andrey; Sonnhammer, Erik L L

2013-01-01

Analyzing groups of functionally coupled genes or proteins in the context of global interaction networks has become an important aspect of bioinformatic investigations. Assessing the statistical significance of crosstalk enrichment between or within groups of genes can be a valuable tool for functional annotation of experimental gene sets. Here we present CrossTalkZ, a statistical method and software to assess the significance of crosstalk enrichment between pairs of gene or protein groups in large biological networks. We demonstrate that the standard z-score is generally an appropriate and unbiased statistic. We further evaluate the ability of four different methods to reliably recover crosstalk within known biological pathways. We conclude that the methods preserving the second-order topological network properties perform best. Finally, we show how CrossTalkZ can be used to annotate experimental gene sets using known pathway annotations and that its performance at this task is superior to gene enrichment analysis (GEA). CrossTalkZ (available at http://sonnhammer.sbc.su.se/download/software/CrossTalkZ/) is implemented in C++, easy to use, fast, accepts various input file formats, and produces a number of statistics. These include z-score, p-value, false discovery rate, and a test of normality for the null distributions.

Wide Area Measurement Based Security Assessment & Monitoring of Modern Power System: A Danish Power System Case Study

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rather, Zakir Hussain; Chen, Zhe; Thøgersen, Paul

2013-01-01

Power System security has become a major concern across the global power system community. This paper presents wide area measurement system (WAMS) based security assessment and monitoring of modern power system. A new three dimensional security index (TDSI) has been proposed for online security...... monitoring of modern power system with large scale renewable energy penetration. Phasor measurement unit (PMU) based WAMS has been implemented in western Danish Power System to realize online security monitoring and assessment in power system control center. The proposed security monitoring system has been...

Review of problems and methods for radiation risk assessment in the environment of a nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grgic, M.

1966-01-01

Radiation impact on the nuclear power plant environment is a very important problem which has to be solved during design and construction. Damage that could be caused by release of radioactive material into the environment should be estimated and the magnitude of nuclear and radiation risk of the power plant should be evaluated. In general the accuracy of estimation is rather poor due to statistical fluctuations of the conditions which influence radioactivity expansion in the environment, especially in the air. Different uncertainties and unresolved problems influence the inaccuracy. Since any real risk should be extremely small compared to potential risk i.e. risk induced by nuclear power plant without any safety measures, even inaccurate estimations are very useful. Method for environmental radiation risk assessment is based on relatively simple models of radiation expansion in the environment and in the air. These models are theoretically solved but they are based on relatively limited number of experimental data. Assessment of the radiation effects on the population health and mortality is an important problem [sl

Mathematical Safety Assessment Approaches for Thermal Power Plants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zong-Xiao Yang

2014-01-01

Full Text Available How to use system analysis methods to identify the hazards in the industrialized process, working environment, and production management for complex industrial processes, such as thermal power plants, is one of the challenges in the systems engineering. A mathematical system safety assessment model is proposed for thermal power plants in this paper by integrating fuzzy analytical hierarchy process, set pair analysis, and system functionality analysis. In the basis of those, the key factors influencing the thermal power plant safety are analyzed. The influence factors are determined based on fuzzy analytical hierarchy process. The connection degree among the factors is obtained by set pair analysis. The system safety preponderant function is constructed through system functionality analysis for inherence properties and nonlinear influence. The decision analysis system is developed by using active server page technology, web resource integration, and cross-platform capabilities for applications to the industrialized process. The availability of proposed safety assessment approach is verified by using an actual thermal power plant, which has improved the enforceability and predictability in enterprise safety assessment.

Improved statistical power with a sparse shape model in detecting an aging effect in the hippocampus and amygdala

Science.gov (United States)

Chung, Moo K.; Kim, Seung-Goo; Schaefer, Stacey M.; van Reekum, Carien M.; Peschke-Schmitz, Lara; Sutterer, Matthew J.; Davidson, Richard J.

2014-03-01

The sparse regression framework has been widely used in medical image processing and analysis. However, it has been rarely used in anatomical studies. We present a sparse shape modeling framework using the Laplace- Beltrami (LB) eigenfunctions of the underlying shape and show its improvement of statistical power. Tradition- ally, the LB-eigenfunctions are used as a basis for intrinsically representing surface shapes as a form of Fourier descriptors. To reduce high frequency noise, only the first few terms are used in the expansion and higher frequency terms are simply thrown away. However, some lower frequency terms may not necessarily contribute significantly in reconstructing the surfaces. Motivated by this idea, we present a LB-based method to filter out only the significant eigenfunctions by imposing a sparse penalty. For dense anatomical data such as deformation fields on a surface mesh, the sparse regression behaves like a smoothing process, which will reduce the error of incorrectly detecting false negatives. Hence the statistical power improves. The sparse shape model is then applied in investigating the influence of age on amygdala and hippocampus shapes in the normal population. The advantage of the LB sparse framework is demonstrated by showing the increased statistical power.

Statistical analysis about corrosion in nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Naquid G, C.; Medina F, A.; Zamora R, L.

1999-01-01

Nowadays, it has been carried out the investigations related with the structure degradation mechanisms, systems or and components in the nuclear power plants, since a lot of the involved processes are the responsible of the reliability of these ones, of the integrity of their components, of the safety aspects and others. This work presents the statistics of the studies related with materials corrosion in its wide variety and specific mechanisms. These exist at world level in the PWR, BWR, and WWER reactors, analysing the AIRS (Advanced Incident Reporting System) during the period between 1993-1998 in the two first plants in during the period between 1982-1995 for the WWER. The factors identification allows characterize them as those which apply, they are what have happen by the presence of some corrosion mechanism. Those which not apply, these are due to incidental by natural factors, mechanical failures and human errors. Finally, the total number of cases analysed, they correspond to the total cases which apply and not apply. (Author)

Network Theory Integrated Life Cycle Assessment for an Electric Power System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Heetae Kim

2015-08-01

Full Text Available In this study, we allocate Greenhouse gas (GHG emissions of electricity transmission to the consumers. As an allocation basis, we introduce energy distance. Energy distance takes the transmission load on the electricity energy system into account in addition to the amount of electricity consumption. As a case study, we estimate regional GHG emissions of electricity transmission loss in Chile. Life cycle assessment (LCA is used to estimate the total GHG emissions of the Chilean electric power system. The regional GHG emission of transmission loss is calculated from the total GHG emissions. We construct the network model of Chilean electric power grid as an undirected network with 466 nodes and 543 edges holding the topology of the power grid based on the statistical record. We analyze the total annual GHG emissions of the Chilean electricity energy system as 23.07 Mt CO2-eq. and 1.61 Mt CO2-eq. for the transmission loss, respectively. The total energy distance for the electricity transmission accounts for 12,842.10 TWh km based on network analysis. We argue that when the GHG emission of electricity transmission loss is estimated, the electricity transmission load should be separately considered. We propose network theory as a useful complement to LCA analysis for the complex allocation. Energy distance is especially useful on a very large-scale electric power grid such as an intercontinental transmission network.

Application of probabilistic safety assessment for Macedonian electric power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kancev, D.; Causevski, A.; Cepin, M.; Volkanovski, A.

2007-01-01

Due to the complex and integrated nature of a power system, failures in any part of the system can cause interruptions, which range from inconveniencing a small number of local residents to a major and widespread catastrophic disruption of supply known as blackout. The objective of the paper is to show that the methods and tools of probabilistic safety assessment are applicable for assessment and improvement of real power systems. The method used in this paper is developed based on the fault tree analysis and is adapted for the power system reliability analysis. A particular power system i.e. the Macedonian power system is the object of the analysis. The results show that the method is suitable for application of real systems. The reliability of Macedonian power system assumed as the static system is assessed. The components, which can significantly impact the power system are identified and analysed in more details. (author)

Theoretical remarks on the statistics of three discriminants in Piety's automated signature analysis of PSD [Power Spectral Density] data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Behringer, K.; Spiekerman, G.

1984-01-01

Piety (1977) proposed an automated signature analysis of power spectral density data. Eight statistical decision discriminants are introduced. For nearly all the discriminants, improved confidence statements can be made. The statistical characteristics of the last three discriminants, which are applications of non-parametric tests, are considered. (author)

Bias, precision and statistical power of analysis of covariance in the analysis of randomized trials with baseline imbalance: a simulation study

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

Background Analysis of variance (ANOVA), change-score analysis (CSA) and analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) respond differently to baseline imbalance in randomized controlled trials. However, no empirical studies appear to have quantified the differential bias and precision of estimates derived from these methods of analysis, and their relative statistical power, in relation to combinations of levels of key trial characteristics. This simulation study therefore examined the relative bias, precision and statistical power of these three analyses using simulated trial data. Methods 126 hypothetical trial scenarios were evaluated (126 000 datasets), each with continuous data simulated by using a combination of levels of: treatment effect; pretest-posttest correlation; direction and magnitude of baseline imbalance. The bias, precision and power of each method of analysis were calculated for each scenario. Results Compared to the unbiased estimates produced by ANCOVA, both ANOVA and CSA are subject to bias, in relation to pretest-posttest correlation and the direction of baseline imbalance. Additionally, ANOVA and CSA are less precise than ANCOVA, especially when pretest-posttest correlation ≥ 0.3. When groups are balanced at baseline, ANCOVA is at least as powerful as the other analyses. Apparently greater power of ANOVA and CSA at certain imbalances is achieved in respect of a biased treatment effect. Conclusions Across a range of correlations between pre- and post-treatment scores and at varying levels and direction of baseline imbalance, ANCOVA remains the optimum statistical method for the analysis of continuous outcomes in RCTs, in terms of bias, precision and statistical power. PMID:24712304

Social assessment and location of nuclear and thermal power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nemoto, Kazuyasu; Nishio, Mitsuo.

1979-01-01

Most of the locations of nuclear and thermal power plants in Japan are depopulated villages with remote rural character, but for the development of such districts, the policy is not yet clearly established, and the appropriate measures are not taken. The living regions of residents and the production regions of enterprises are more and more estranged. Social assessment is the scientific method to perceive the future change due to the installation of power stations. The features particular to the assessment of natural environment and social environment related to the location of power stations are considered, and the technical problems involved in the method of assessment of natural environment are solved, and the actual method of assessment of social environment is developed. Then, the possibility of establishing this method and the problems in its application are investigated. The plan of developing the surroundings of power generation facilities is criticized, and the coordination of the location plan of power companies and the regional projects of municipalities is discussed. Finally, the mechanism of consensus formation concerning the location of power stations is considered, dividing into regional consensus formation and administrative consensus formation, and the possibility of instituting social assessment is examined. (Kako, I.)

Potential for accidents in a nuclear power plant: probabilistic risk assessment, applied statistical decision theory, and implications of such considerations to mathematics education

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dios, R.A.

1984-01-01

This dissertation focuses upon the field of probabilistic risk assessment and its development. It investigates the development of probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear engineering. To provide background for its development, the related areas of population dynamics (demography), epidemiology and actuarial science are studied by presenting information upon how risk has been viewed in these areas over the years. A second major problem involves presenting an overview of the mathematical models related to risk analysis to mathematics educators and making recommendations for presenting this theory in classes of probability and statistics for mathematics and engineering majors at the undergraduate and graduate levels

Novel approach to assess local market power considering transmission constraints

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Canbing; Xia, Qing; Kang, Chongqing; Jiang, Jianjian

2008-01-01

Market power (MP) assessment and mitigation affect the efficiency of the generation market. The traditional indices such as HHI and Lerner index can not express local market power, which caused by transmission constraints. Transmission constraints divide the market into some smaller parts. Some generators can abuse their MP in one part but not in the whole market. This paper describes a new approach to assess market power. The main contributions of the new method can be summarized as following. First, the concept of local market is developed, and the whole power system is divided into several local markets, as transmission congestions dividing the market. In the local markets, there are no transmission constraints so local market power does not exist. Then the local market power index (LMPI) is calculated according to market concentration, transmission constraints, and demand-supply ratio. Based on LMPI, the integrated local market power index which describes the whole picture of market can be obtained. It has been proved that the new approach can assess market power exactly, and identify the critical factor that results in market power and where generators are easy to exercise market power. The finding in this paper is helpful for market monitoring and mitigating market power. Moreover, the new index can be used to evaluate the power grid availability to generation competition and the power transmission expansion planning. (author)

Methodology for Assessment of Inertial Response from Wind Power Plants

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Altin, Müfit; Teodorescu, Remus; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2012-01-01

High wind power penetration levels result in additional requirements from wind power in order to improve frequency stability. Replacement of conventional power plants with wind power plants reduces the power system inertia due to the wind turbine technology. Consequently, the rate of change...... of frequency and the maximum frequency deviation increase after a disturbance such as generation loss, load increase, etc. Having no inherent inertial response, wind power plants need additional control concepts in order to provide an additional active power following a disturbance. Several control concepts...... have been implemented in the literature, but the assessment of these control concepts with respect to power system requirements has not been specified. In this paper, a methodology to assess the inertial response from wind power plants is proposed. Accordingly, the proposed methodology is applied...

Statistical learning: a powerful mechanism that operates by mere exposure.

Science.gov (United States)

Aslin, Richard N

2017-01-01

How do infants learn so rapidly and with little apparent effort? In 1996, Saffran, Aslin, and Newport reported that 8-month-old human infants could learn the underlying temporal structure of a stream of speech syllables after only 2 min of passive listening. This demonstration of what was called statistical learning, involving no instruction, reinforcement, or feedback, led to dozens of confirmations of this powerful mechanism of implicit learning in a variety of modalities, domains, and species. These findings reveal that infants are not nearly as dependent on explicit forms of instruction as we might have assumed from studies of learning in which children or adults are taught facts such as math or problem solving skills. Instead, at least in some domains, infants soak up the information around them by mere exposure. Learning and development in these domains thus appear to occur automatically and with little active involvement by an instructor (parent or teacher). The details of this statistical learning mechanism are discussed, including how exposure to specific types of information can, under some circumstances, generalize to never-before-observed information, thereby enabling transfer of learning. WIREs Cogn Sci 2017, 8:e1373. doi: 10.1002/wcs.1373 For further resources related to this article, please visit the WIREs website. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Assessing biomass of diverse coastal marsh ecosystems using statistical and machine learning models

Science.gov (United States)

Mo, Yu; Kearney, Michael S.; Riter, J. C. Alexis; Zhao, Feng; Tilley, David R.

2018-06-01

The importance and vulnerability of coastal marshes necessitate effective ways to closely monitor them. Optical remote sensing is a powerful tool for this task, yet its application to diverse coastal marsh ecosystems consisting of different marsh types is limited. This study samples spectral and biophysical data from freshwater, intermediate, brackish, and saline marshes in Louisiana, and develops statistical and machine learning models to assess the marshes' biomass with combined ground, airborne, and spaceborne remote sensing data. It is found that linear models derived from NDVI and EVI are most favorable for assessing Leaf Area Index (LAI) using multispectral data (R2 = 0.7 and 0.67, respectively), and the random forest models are most useful in retrieving LAI and Aboveground Green Biomass (AGB) using hyperspectral data (R2 = 0.91 and 0.84, respectively). It is also found that marsh type and plant species significantly impact the linear model development (P biomass of Louisiana's coastal marshes using various optical remote sensing techniques, and highlights the impacts of the marshes' species composition on the model development and the sensors' spatial resolution on biomass mapping, thereby providing useful tools for monitoring the biomass of coastal marshes in Louisiana and diverse coastal marsh ecosystems elsewhere.

A Powerful Approach to Estimating Annotation-Stratified Genetic Covariance via GWAS Summary Statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Qiongshi; Li, Boyang; Ou, Derek; Erlendsdottir, Margret; Powles, Ryan L; Jiang, Tony; Hu, Yiming; Chang, David; Jin, Chentian; Dai, Wei; He, Qidu; Liu, Zefeng; Mukherjee, Shubhabrata; Crane, Paul K; Zhao, Hongyu

2017-12-07

Despite the success of large-scale genome-wide association studies (GWASs) on complex traits, our understanding of their genetic architecture is far from complete. Jointly modeling multiple traits' genetic profiles has provided insights into the shared genetic basis of many complex traits. However, large-scale inference sets a high bar for both statistical power and biological interpretability. Here we introduce a principled framework to estimate annotation-stratified genetic covariance between traits using GWAS summary statistics. Through theoretical and numerical analyses, we demonstrate that our method provides accurate covariance estimates, thereby enabling researchers to dissect both the shared and distinct genetic architecture across traits to better understand their etiologies. Among 50 complex traits with publicly accessible GWAS summary statistics (N total ≈ 4.5 million), we identified more than 170 pairs with statistically significant genetic covariance. In particular, we found strong genetic covariance between late-onset Alzheimer disease (LOAD) and amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS), two major neurodegenerative diseases, in single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) with high minor allele frequencies and in SNPs located in the predicted functional genome. Joint analysis of LOAD, ALS, and other traits highlights LOAD's correlation with cognitive traits and hints at an autoimmune component for ALS. Copyright © 2017 American Society of Human Genetics. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Statistical Assessment of the Effectiveness of Transformation Change (by Case of Singapore

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhuravlyov

2017-02-01

Full Text Available In studies of economic transformations and their statistical assessment, the causality of processes specific to economic relations and development of institutions is overlooked. The article is devoted to the important topic of statistical assessment of the transformations effectiveness. The case of Singapore is taken because it is an Asian country demonstrating the essential role of the institutional environment in the national economy transformations. The regression analysis of the impact of institutional factors on economic growth in Singapore is made using 17 indicators: civil freedoms, corruption, economic freedom, economic globalization, spending on education, use of energy, share of women at labor market, fiscal freedom, price for fuel, PPP, effectiveness of public administration, level of consumption, Human Development Index, Internet users, life expectancy, unemployment, openness of trade. Economic interpretation of the statistical assessment of economic transformations in Singapore is as follows: quality of the institutional environment (control of corruption, economic freedom, supremacy of law etc. has critical importance for economic development in Singapore; the increasing spending on education has positive effects for economic growth in Singapore; economic growth in Singapore has high positive correlation with energy consumption.

Assessing a learning process with functional ANOVA estimators of EEG power spectral densities.

Science.gov (United States)

Gutiérrez, David; Ramírez-Moreno, Mauricio A

2016-04-01

We propose to assess the process of learning a task using electroencephalographic (EEG) measurements. In particular, we quantify changes in brain activity associated to the progression of the learning experience through the functional analysis-of-variances (FANOVA) estimators of the EEG power spectral density (PSD). Such functional estimators provide a sense of the effect of training in the EEG dynamics. For that purpose, we implemented an experiment to monitor the process of learning to type using the Colemak keyboard layout during a twelve-lessons training. Hence, our aim is to identify statistically significant changes in PSD of various EEG rhythms at different stages and difficulty levels of the learning process. Those changes are taken into account only when a probabilistic measure of the cognitive state ensures the high engagement of the volunteer to the training. Based on this, a series of statistical tests are performed in order to determine the personalized frequencies and sensors at which changes in PSD occur, then the FANOVA estimates are computed and analyzed. Our experimental results showed a significant decrease in the power of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] rhythms for ten volunteers during the learning process, and such decrease happens regardless of the difficulty of the lesson. These results are in agreement with previous reports of changes in PSD being associated to feature binding and memory encoding.

Generation reliability assessment in oligopoly power market using Monte Carlo simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haroonabadi, H.; Haghifam, M.R.

2007-01-01

This paper addressed issues regarding power generation reliability assessment (HLI) in deregulated power pool markets. Most HLI reliability evaluation methods are based on the loss of load (LOLE) approach which is among the most suitable indices to describe the level of generation reliability. LOLE refers to the time in which load is greater than the amount of available generation. While most reliability assessments deal only with power system constraints, this study considered HLI reliability assessment in an oligopoly power market using Monte Carlo simulation (MCS). It evaluated the sensitivity of the reliability index to different reserve margins and future margins. The reliability index was determined by intersecting the offer and demand curves of power plants and comparing them to other parameters. The paper described the fundamentals of an oligopoly power pool market and proposed an algorithm for HLI reliability assessment for such a market. The proposed method was assessed on the IEEE-Reliability Test System with satisfactory results. In all cases, generation reliability indices were evaluated with different reserve margins and various load levels. 19 refs., 7 figs., 1 appendix

The assessment of fusion power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bickerton, Roy

1990-01-01

It is argued that the recent 'Science and Technology Options Assessments' of fusion power produced for the European Parliament is incorrecta and misleading. The report takes no account of the complex organizational structure of the European fusion programme, it misrepresents history, and it presents incomprehensible graphical evidence and criteria which are narrowly-based and largely platitudinous. (author)

Safety assessment of emergency electric power systems for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1986-09-01

This paper is intended to assist the safety assessor within a regulatory body, or one working as a consultant, in assessing a given design of the Emergency Electrical Power System. Those non-electric power systems which may be used in a plant design to serve as emergency energy sources are addressed only in their general safety aspects. The paper thus relates closely to Safety Series 50-SG-D7 ''Emergency Power Systems at Nuclear Power Plants'' (1982), as far as it addresses emergency electric power systems. Several aspects are dealt with: the information the assessor may expect from the applicant to fulfill his task of safety review; the main questions the reviewer has to answer in order to determine the compliance with requirements of the NUSS documents; the national or international standards which give further guidance on a certain system or piece of equipment; comments and suggestions which may help to judge a variety of possible solutions

Hybrid algorithm for rotor angle security assessment in power systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. Prasad Wadduwage

2015-08-01

Full Text Available Transient rotor angle stability assessment and oscillatory rotor angle stability assessment subsequent to a contingency are integral components of dynamic security assessment (DSA in power systems. This study proposes a hybrid algorithm to determine whether the post-fault power system is secure due to both transient rotor angle stability and oscillatory rotor angle stability subsequent to a set of known contingencies. The hybrid algorithm first uses a new security measure developed based on the concept of Lyapunov exponents (LEs to determine the transient security of the post-fault power system. Later, the transient secure power swing curves are analysed using an improved Prony algorithm which extracts the dominant oscillatory modes and estimates their damping ratios. The damping ratio is a security measure about the oscillatory security of the post-fault power system subsequent to the contingency. The suitability of the proposed hybrid algorithm for DSA in power systems is illustrated using different contingencies of a 16-generator 68-bus test system and a 50-generator 470-bus test system. The accuracy of the stability conclusions and the acceptable computational burden indicate that the proposed hybrid algorithm is suitable for real-time security assessment with respect to both transient rotor angle stability and oscillatory rotor angle stability under multiple contingencies of the power system.

Nuclear power plants: 2009 atw compact statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2010-01-01

At the turn of 2009/2010, nuclear power plants were available for energy supply in 30 countries of the world. A total of 437 nuclear power plants, which is one plant less than at the 2008/2009 turn, were in operation with an aggregate gross power of approx. 391 GWe and an aggregate net power, respectively, of 371 GWe. The available gross power of nuclear power plants did not changed noticeably from 2008 to the end of 2009. In total 2 nuclear generating units were commissioned in 2009. One NPP started operation in India and one in Japan. Three nuclear generating units in Japan (2) und Lithuania (1) were decomissioned in 2009. 52 nuclear generating units, i.e. 10 plants more than at the end of 2008, with an aggregate gross power of approx. 51 GWe, were under construction in 14 countries end of 2009. New or continued projects are notified from (number of new projects): China (+9), Russia (1), and South Korea (1). Some 84 new nuclear power plants are in the concrete project design, planning and licensing phases worldwide; on some of them, contracts have already been awarded. Another units are in their preliminary project phases. (orig.)

Nuclear power plants: 2008 atw compact statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2009-01-01

At the turn of 2008/2009, nuclear power plants were available for energy supply in 31 countries of the world. A total of 438 nuclear power plants, which is one plant less than at the 2007/2008 turn, were in operation with an aggregate gross power of approx. 393 GWe and an aggregate net power, respectively, of 372 GWe. The available gross power of nuclear power plants didn't changed noticeabely from 2007 to the end of 2008. No nuclear generating unit was commissioned in 2008. One nuclear generating unit in the Slovak Republic was decomissioned in 2008. 42 nuclear generating units, i.e. 10 plants more than at the end of 2007, with an aggregate gross power of approx. 38 GWe, were under construction in 14 countries end of 2008. New or continued projects are notified from (in brackets: number of new projects): Bulgaria (2), China (5), South Korea (2), Russia (1), and the Slovak Republic (2). Some 80 new nuclear power plants are in the concrete project design, planning and licensing phases worldwide; on some of them, contracts have already been awarded. Another approximately 120 units are in their preliminary project phases. (orig.)

Assessment of offshore wind power potential in the Aegean and Ionian Seas based on high-resolution hindcast model results

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Takvor Soukissian

2017-03-01

Full Text Available In this study long-term wind data obtained from high-resolution hindcast simulations is used to analytically assess offshore wind power potential in the Aegean and Ionian Seas and provide wind climate and wind power potential characteristics at selected locations, where offshore wind farms are at the concept/planning phase. After ensuring the good model performance through detailed validation against buoy measurements, offshore wind speed and wind direction at 10 m above sea level are statistically analyzed on the annual and seasonal time scale. The spatial distribution of the mean wind speed and wind direction are provided in the appropriate time scales, along with the mean annual and the inter-annual variability; these statistical quantities are useful in the offshore wind energy sector as regards the preliminary identification of favorable sites for exploitation of offshore wind energy. Moreover, the offshore wind power potential and its variability are also estimated at 80 m height above sea level. The obtained results reveal that there are specific areas in the central and the eastern Aegean Sea that combine intense annual winds with low variability; the annual offshore wind power potential in these areas reach values close to 900 W/m2, suggesting that a detailed assessment of offshore wind energy would be worth noticing and could lead in attractive investments. Furthermore, as a rough estimate of the availability factor, the equiprobable contours of the event [4 m/s ≤ wind speed ≤ 25 m/s] are also estimated and presented. The selected lower and upper bounds of wind speed correspond to typical cut-in and cut-out wind speed thresholds, respectively, for commercial offshore wind turbines. Finally, for seven offshore wind farms that are at the concept/planning phase the main wind climate and wind power density characteristics are also provided.

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs.

Data base of accident and agricultural statistics for transportation risk assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saricks, C.L.; Williams, R.G.; Hopf, M.R.

1989-11-01

A state-level data base of accident and agricultural statistics has been developed to support risk assessment for transportation of spent nuclear fuels and high-level radioactive wastes. This data base will enhance the modeling capabilities for more route-specific analyses of potential risks associated with transportation of these wastes to a disposal site. The data base and methodology used to develop state-specific accident and agricultural data bases are described, and summaries of accident and agricultural statistics are provided. 27 refs., 9 tabs

Empirical assessment of published effect sizes and power in the recent cognitive neuroscience and psychology literature

OpenAIRE

Szucs, Denes; Ioannidis, JPA

2017-01-01

Author summary Biomedical science, psychology, and many other fields may be suffering from a serious replication crisis. In order to gain insight into some factors behind this crisis, we have analyzed statistical information extracted from thousands of cognitive neuroscience and psychology research papers. We established that the statistical power to discover existing relationships has not improved during the past half century. A consequence of low statistical power is that research studies a...

Assessment of ceramic composites for MMW space nuclear power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Besmann, T.M.

1987-01-01

Proposed multimegawatt nuclear power systems which operate at high temperatures, high levels of stress, and in hostile environments, including corrosive working fluids, have created interest in the use of ceramic composites as structural materials. This report assesses the applicability of several ceramic composites in both Brayton and Rankine cycle power systems. This assessment considers an equilibrium thermodynamic analysis and also a nonequilibrium assessment. (FI)

Statistical aspects of carbon fiber risk assessment modeling. [fire accidents involving aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Gross, D.; Miller, D. R.; Soland, R. M.

1980-01-01

The probabilistic and statistical aspects of the carbon fiber risk assessment modeling of fire accidents involving commercial aircraft are examined. Three major sources of uncertainty in the modeling effort are identified. These are: (1) imprecise knowledge in establishing the model; (2) parameter estimation; and (3)Monte Carlo sampling error. All three sources of uncertainty are treated and statistical procedures are utilized and/or developed to control them wherever possible.

Nuclear power plants: 2004 atw compact statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2005-01-01

In late 2004, nuclear power plants were available for power supply or were under construction in 32 countries worldwide. A total of 441 nuclear power plants, i.e. two plants more than in late 2003, were in operation with an aggregate gross power of approx. 386 GWe and an aggregate net power, respectively, of 362 GWe, in 31 countries. The available capacity of nuclear power plants increased by approx. 5 GWe as a result of the additions by the six units newly commissioned: Hamaoka 5 (Japan), Ulchin 6 (Korea), Kalinin 3 (Russia), Khmelnitski 2 (Ukraine), Qinshan II-2 (People's Republic of China), and Rowno 4 (Ukraine). In addition, unit 3 of the Bruce A nuclear power plant in Canada with a power of 825 MWe was restarted after an outage of many years. Contrary to earlier plans, a recommissioning program was initiated for the Bruce A-1 and A-2 units, which are also down at present. Five plants were decommissioned for good in 2004; Chapelcross 1 to 4 with 50 MWe each in the United Kingdom, and Ignalina 1 with 1 300 MWe in Lithuania. 22 nuclear generating units with an aggregate gross power of 19 GWe in nine countries were under construction in late 2004. In India, construction work was started on a new project, the 500 MWe PFBR prototype fast breeder reactor. In France, the EDF utility announced its intention to build an EPR on the Flamanville site beginning in 2007. (orig.)

Nuclear power plants: 2005 atw compact statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2006-01-01

Nuclear power plants were available for power supply and under construction, respectively, in 32 countries of the world as per end of 2005. A total of 444 nuclear power plants, i.e. three plants more than at the end of 2004, with an aggregate gross power of approx. 389 GWe and an aggregate net power of 370 GWe, respectively, were in operation in 31 countries. The available capacity of nuclear power plants increased by some 4,5 GWe as a result of the capacities added by the four newly commissioned units of Higashidori 1 (Japan), Shika 2 (Japan), Tarapur 4 (India), and Tianwan 1 (China). In addition, unit A-1 of the Pickering nuclear power station in Canada, with 825 MWe, was restarted after a downtime of several years. Two plants were decommissioned for good in 2005: Obrigheim in Germany, and Barsebaeck 2 in Sweden. 23 nuclear generating units, i.e. one unit more than in late 2004, with an aggregate gross power of approx. 19 GWe were still under construction in nine countries by late 2005. In Pakistan, construction of a new project, Chasnupp 2, was started; in China, construction was begun of two units, Lingao Phase 2, units 3 and 4, and in Japan, the Shimane 3 generating unit is being built. (orig.)

Additional methodology development for statistical evaluation of reactor safety analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Marshall, J.A.; Shore, R.W.; Chay, S.C.; Mazumdar, M.

1977-03-01

The project described is motivated by the desire for methods to quantify uncertainties and to identify conservatisms in nuclear power plant safety analysis. The report examines statistical methods useful for assessing the probability distribution of output response from complex nuclear computer codes, considers sensitivity analysis and several other topics, and also sets the path for using the developed methods for realistic assessment of the design basis accident

Development of statistical analysis code for meteorological data (W-View)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tachibana, Haruo; Sekita, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Takenori

2003-03-01

A computer code (W-View: Weather View) was developed to analyze the meteorological data statistically based on 'the guideline of meteorological statistics for the safety analysis of nuclear power reactor' (Nuclear Safety Commission on January 28, 1982; revised on March 29, 2001). The code gives statistical meteorological data to assess the public dose in case of normal operation and severe accident to get the license of nuclear reactor operation. This code was revised from the original code used in a large office computer code to enable a personal computer user to analyze the meteorological data simply and conveniently and to make the statistical data tables and figures of meteorology. (author)

Nuclear power plant training simulator fidelity assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carter, R.J.; Laughery, K.R.

1985-01-01

The fidelity assessment portion of a methodology for evaluating nuclear power plant simulation facilities in regard to their appropriateness for conducting the Nuclear Regulatory Commission's operating test was described. The need for fidelity assessment, data sources, and fidelity data to be collected are addressed. Fidelity data recording, collection, and analysis are discussed. The processes for drawing conclusions from the fidelity assessment and evaluating the adequacy of the simulator control-room layout were presented. 3 refs

Dynamic vulnerability assessment and intelligent control for sustainable power systems

CERN Document Server

Gonzalez-Longatt, Francisco

2018-01-01

Identifying, assessing, and mitigating electric power grid vulnerabilities is a growing focus in short-term operational planning of power systems. Through illustrated application, this important guide surveys state-of-the-art methodologies for the assessment and enhancement of power system security in short-term operational planning and real-time operation. The methodologies employ advanced methods from probabilistic theory, data mining, artificial intelligence, and optimization, to provide knowledge-based support for monitoring, control (preventive and corrective), and decision making tasks. Key features: Introduces behavioural recognition in wide-area monitoring and security constrained optimal power flow for intelligent control and protection and optimal grid management. Provides in-depth understanding of risk-based reliability and security assessment, dynamic vulnerability as essment methods, supported by the underpinning mathematics. Develops expertise in mitigation techniques using intelligent protect...

Transient Stability Assessment of Power System with Large Amount of Wind Power Penetration

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liu, Leo; Chen, Zhe; Bak, Claus Leth

2012-01-01

Recently, the security and stability of power system with large amount of wind power are the concerned issues, especially the transient stability. In Denmark, the onshore and offshore wind farms are connected to distribution system and transmission system respectively. The control and protection...... methodologies of onshore and offshore wind farms definitely affect the transient stability of power system. In this paper, the onshore and offshore wind farms are modeled in detail in order to assess the transient stability of western Danish power system. Further, the computation of critical clearing time (CCT...... plants, load consumption level and high voltage direct current (HVDC) transmission links are taken into account. The results presented in this paper are able to provide an early awareness of power system security condition of the western Danish power system....

Probabilistic safety assessments of nuclear power plants for low power and shutdown modes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-03-01

Within the past several years the results of nuclear power plant operating experience and performance of probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs) for low power and shutdown operating modes have revealed that the risk from operating modes other than full power may contribute significantly to the overall risk from plant operations. These early results have led to an increased focus on safety during low power and shutdown operating modes and to an increased interest of many plant operators in performing shutdown and low power PSAs. This publication was developed to provide guidance and insights on the performance of PSA for shutdown and low power operating modes. The preparation of this publication was initiated in 1994. Two technical consultants meetings were conducted in 1994 and one in February 1999 in support of the development of this report

Appropriate statistical methods are required to assess diagnostic tests for replacement, add-on, and triage

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hayen, Andrew; Macaskill, Petra; Irwig, Les; Bossuyt, Patrick

2010-01-01

To explain which measures of accuracy and which statistical methods should be used in studies to assess the value of a new binary test as a replacement test, an add-on test, or a triage test. Selection and explanation of statistical methods, illustrated with examples. Statistical methods for

Statistical assessment of quality of credit activity of Ukrainian banks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Moldavska Olena V.

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The article conducts an economic and statistical analysis of the modern state of credit activity of Ukrainian banks and main tendencies of its development. It justifies urgency of the statistical study of credit activity of banks. It offers a complex system of assessment of bank lending at two levels: the level of the banking system and the level of an individual bank. The use of the system analysis allows reflection of interconnection between effectiveness of functioning of the banking system and quality of the credit portfolio. The article considers main aspects of management of quality of the credit portfolio – level of troubled debt and credit risk. The article touches the problem of adequate quantitative assessment of troubled loans in the credit portfolios of banks, since the methodologies of its calculation used by the National Bank of Ukraine and international rating agencies are quite different. The article presents a system of methods of management of credit risk, both theoretically and providing specific examples, in the context of prevention of occurrence of risk situations or elimination of their consequences.

The efficiency of retrospective artifact correction methods in improving the statistical power of between-group differences in spinal cord DTI.

Science.gov (United States)

David, Gergely; Freund, Patrick; Mohammadi, Siawoosh

2017-09-01

Diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) is a promising approach for investigating the white matter microstructure of the spinal cord. However, it suffers from severe susceptibility, physiological, and instrumental artifacts present in the cord. Retrospective correction techniques are popular approaches to reduce these artifacts, because they are widely applicable and do not increase scan time. In this paper, we present a novel outlier rejection approach (reliability masking) which is designed to supplement existing correction approaches by excluding irreversibly corrupted and thus unreliable data points from the DTI index maps. Then, we investigate how chains of retrospective correction techniques including (i) registration, (ii) registration and robust fitting, and (iii) registration, robust fitting, and reliability masking affect the statistical power of a previously reported finding of lower fractional anisotropy values in the posterior column and lateral corticospinal tracts in cervical spondylotic myelopathy (CSM) patients. While established post-processing steps had small effect on the statistical power of the clinical finding (slice-wise registration: -0.5%, robust fitting: +0.6%), adding reliability masking to the post-processing chain increased it by 4.7%. Interestingly, reliability masking and registration affected the t-score metric differently: while the gain in statistical power due to reliability masking was mainly driven by decreased variability in both groups, registration slightly increased variability. In conclusion, reliability masking is particularly attractive for neuroscience and clinical research studies, as it increases statistical power by reducing group variability and thus provides a cost-efficient alternative to increasing the group size. Copyright © 2017 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nuclear power plants: 2013 atw compact statistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Anon.

2014-03-15

At the end of 2013, nuclear power plants were available for energy supply in 31 countries of the world. A total of 437 nuclear power plants were in operation with an aggregate gross power of approx. 393 GWe and an aggregate net power, respectively, of 372 GWe. This means that the number was unchanged compared to the previous year's number on 31 December 2012. The available gross power of nuclear power plants increased by approx. 2 GWe from 2012 to the end of 2013. In total 4 nuclear generating units were commissioned in 2013 in China (+2) and in the Republic Korea (+1). 6 nuclear generating units were decommissioned in 2013. Four units in the U.S.A. (-4) were shut down due to economical reasons. In Canada (-2) the operation status of 2 units was changed from long-term shutdown to permanently shutdown. 70 nuclear generating units with an aggregate gross power of approx. 73 GWe, were under construction in 15 countries end of 2013. New or continued projects are notified from (in brackets: number of new projects) China (+3), Belarus (+1), Rep. of Korea (+1) and the United Arab Emirates (+1). Some 115 new nuclear power plants are in the concrete project design, planning and licensing phases worldwide; on some of them, contracts have already been awarded. Another units are in their preliminary project phases. (orig.)

Nuclear power plants: 2013 atw compact statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Anon.

2014-01-01

At the end of 2013, nuclear power plants were available for energy supply in 31 countries of the world. A total of 437 nuclear power plants were in operation with an aggregate gross power of approx. 393 GWe and an aggregate net power, respectively, of 372 GWe. This means that the number was unchanged compared to the previous year's number on 31 December 2012. The available gross power of nuclear power plants increased by approx. 2 GWe from 2012 to the end of 2013. In total 4 nuclear generating units were commissioned in 2013 in China (+2) and in the Republic Korea (+1). 6 nuclear generating units were decommissioned in 2013. Four units in the U.S.A. (-4) were shut down due to economical reasons. In Canada (-2) the operation status of 2 units was changed from long-term shutdown to permanently shutdown. 70 nuclear generating units with an aggregate gross power of approx. 73 GWe, were under construction in 15 countries end of 2013. New or continued projects are notified from (in brackets: number of new projects) China (+3), Belarus (+1), Rep. of Korea (+1) and the United Arab Emirates (+1). Some 115 new nuclear power plants are in the concrete project design, planning and licensing phases worldwide; on some of them, contracts have already been awarded. Another units are in their preliminary project phases. (orig.)

The power and statistical behaviour of allele-sharing statistics when ...

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

Unknown

3Human Genetics Division, School of Medicine, University of Southampton, Southampton SO16 6YD, UK. Abstract ... that the statistic S-#alleles gives good performance for recessive ... (H50) of the families are linked to the single marker. The.

Assessing Power System Stability Following Load Changes and Considering Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. V. Ngo

2018-04-01

Full Text Available An increase in load capacity during the operation of a power system usually causes voltage drop and leads to system instability, so it is necessary to monitor the effect of load changes. This article presents a method of assessing the power system stability according to the load node capacity considering uncertainty factors in the system. The proposed approach can be applied to large-scale power systems for voltage stability assessment in real-time.

Statistical analysis of wind power in the region of Veracruz (Mexico)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cancino-Solorzano, Yoreley [Departamento de Ing Electrica-Electronica, Instituto Tecnologico de Veracruz, Calzada Miguel A. de Quevedo 2779, 91860 Veracruz (Mexico); Xiberta-Bernat, Jorge [Departamento de Energia, Escuela Tecnica Superior de Ingenieros de Minas, Universidad de Oviedo, C/Independencia, 13, 2a Planta, 33004 Oviedo (Spain)

2009-06-15

The capacity of the Mexican electricity sector faces the challenge of satisfying the demand of the 80 GW forecast by 2016. This value supposes a steady yearly average increase of some 4.9%. The electricity sector increases for the next eight years will be mainly made up of combined cycle power plants which could be a threat to the energy supply of the country due to the fact that the country is not self-sufficient in natural gas. As an alternative wind energy resource could be a more suitable option compared with combined cycle power plants. This option is backed by market trends indicating that wind technology costs will continue to decrease in the near future as has happened in recent years. Evaluation of the eolic potential in different areas of the country must be carried out in order to achieve the best use possible of this option. This paper gives a statistical analysis of the wind characteristics in the region of Veracruz. The daily, monthly and annual wind speed values have been studied together with their prevailing direction. The data analyzed correspond to five meteorological stations and two anemometric stations located in the aforementioned area. (author)

Statistical analysis of wind power in the region of Veracruz (Mexico)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cancino-Solorzano, Yoreley; Xiberta-Bernat, Jorge

2009-01-01

The capacity of the Mexican electricity sector faces the challenge of satisfying the demand of the 80 GW forecast by 2016. This value supposes a steady yearly average increase of some 4.9%. The electricity sector increases for the next eight years will be mainly made up of combined cycle power plants which could be a threat to the energy supply of the country due to the fact that the country is not self-sufficient in natural gas. As an alternative wind energy resource could be a more suitable option compared with combined cycle power plants. This option is backed by market trends indicating that wind technology costs will continue to decrease in the near future as has happened in recent years. Evaluation of the eolic potential in different areas of the country must be carried out in order to achieve the best use possible of this option. This paper gives a statistical analysis of the wind characteristics in the region of Veracruz. The daily, monthly and annual wind speed values have been studied together with their prevailing direction. The data analyzed correspond to five meteorological stations and two anemometric stations located in the aforementioned area. (author)

Revised assessments of the economics of fusion power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Han, W.E.; Ward, D.J.

2009-01-01

Although fusion power is being developed because of its large resource base, low environmental impact and high levels of intrinsic safety, it is also important to investigate the economics of a future fusion power plant in order to assess the potential market for the electricity produced. As part of the PPCS (Power Plant Conceptual Study) in Europe, published in 2005, an assessment was made of the likely economic performance of the range of fusion power plant concepts studied. Since that time, new work has been carried out, within the fusion programme, and particularly in the EU DEMO study, that changes a number of the important assumptions made in the PPCS. These changes allow either reduced cost versions of the PPCS plant models or, alternatively, plants with less ambitious technical assumptions at constant cost. The impact of the new results, emerging from the EU DEMO studies, on the role of fusion in the future energy market is described. A new energy economics model is employed to analyse the potential market performance of fusion power in a range of future energy scenarios and this shows that there can be a significant role for fusion in a future energy market.

Assessment of economic factors affecting the satellite power system. Volume 2: The systems implications of rectenna siting issues

Science.gov (United States)

Chapman, P. K.; Bugos, B. J.; Csigi, K. I.; Glaser, P. E.; Schimke, G. R.; Thomas, R. G.

1979-01-01

The feasibility was evaluated of finding potential sites for Solar Power Satellite (SPS) receiving antennas (rectennas) in the continental United States, in sufficient numbers to permit the SPS to make a major contribution to U.S. generating facilities, and to give statistical validity to an assessment of the characteristics of such sites and their implications for the design of the SPS system. It is found that the cost-optimum power output of the SPS does not depend on the particular value assigned to the cost per unit area of a rectenna and its site, as long as it is independent of rectenna area. Many characteristics of the sites chosen affect the optimum design of the rectenna itself.

Analyzing wind turbine directional behavior: SCADA data mining techniques for efficiency and power assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Castellani, Francesco; Astolfi, Davide; Sdringola, Paolo; Proietti, Stefania; Terzi, Ludovico

2017-01-01

Highlights: • The directional behavior of four turbines of an onshore wind farm is investigated. • The positions of the nacelles are discretized to highlight clusterization effects. • The recurrent alignment patterns of the cluster are individuated and analyzed. • The patterns are studied by the point of view of efficiency and power output. • Significative performance deviations arise among the most frequent configurations. - Abstract: SCADA control systems are the keystone for reliable performance optimization of wind farms. Processing into knowledge the amount of information they spread is a challenging task, involving engineering, physics, statistics and computer science skills. This work deals with SCADA data analysis methods for assessing the importance of how wind turbines align in patterns to the wind direction. In particular it deals with the most common collective phenomenon causing clusters of turbines behaving as a whole, rather than as a collection of individuality: wake effects. The approach is based on the discretization of nacelle position measurements and subsequent post-processing through simple statistical methods. A cluster, severely affected by wakes, from an onshore wind farm, is selected as test case. The dominant alignment patterns of the cluster are identified and analyzed by the point of view of power output and efficiency. It is shown that non-trivial alignments with respect to the wind direction arise and important performance deviations occur among the most frequent configurations.

Statistical power in parallel group point exposure studies with time-to-event outcomes: an empirical comparison of the performance of randomized controlled trials and the inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Austin, Peter C; Schuster, Tibor; Platt, Robert W

2015-10-15

Estimating statistical power is an important component of the design of both randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and observational studies. Methods for estimating statistical power in RCTs have been well described and can be implemented simply. In observational studies, statistical methods must be used to remove the effects of confounding that can occur due to non-random treatment assignment. Inverse probability of treatment weighting (IPTW) using the propensity score is an attractive method for estimating the effects of treatment using observational data. However, sample size and power calculations have not been adequately described for these methods. We used an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to compare the statistical power of an IPTW analysis of an observational study with time-to-event outcomes with that of an analysis of a similarly-structured RCT. We examined the impact of four factors on the statistical power function: number of observed events, prevalence of treatment, the marginal hazard ratio, and the strength of the treatment-selection process. We found that, on average, an IPTW analysis had lower statistical power compared to an analysis of a similarly-structured RCT. The difference in statistical power increased as the magnitude of the treatment-selection model increased. The statistical power of an IPTW analysis tended to be lower than the statistical power of a similarly-structured RCT.

Statistical assessment of fish behavior from split-beam hydro-acoustic sampling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McKinstry, Craig A.; Simmons, Mary Ann; Simmons, Carver S.; Johnson, Robert L.

2005-01-01

Statistical methods are presented for using echo-traces from split-beam hydro-acoustic sampling to assess fish behavior in response to a stimulus. The data presented are from a study designed to assess the response of free-ranging, lake-resident fish, primarily kokanee (Oncorhynchus nerka) and rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) to high intensity strobe lights, and was conducted at Grand Coulee Dam on the Columbia River in Northern Washington State. The lights were deployed immediately upstream from the turbine intakes, in a region exposed to daily alternating periods of high and low flows. The study design included five down-looking split-beam transducers positioned in a line at incremental distances upstream from the strobe lights, and treatments applied in randomized pseudo-replicate blocks. Statistical methods included the use of odds-ratios from fitted loglinear models. Fish-track velocity vectors were modeled using circular probability distributions. Both analyses are depicted graphically. Study results suggest large increases of fish activity in the presence of the strobe lights, most notably at night and during periods of low flow. The lights also induced notable bimodality in the angular distributions of the fish track velocity vectors. Statistical/SUMmaries are presented along with interpretations on fish behavior

The mediation of environmental assessment's influence: What role for power?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cashmore, Matthew; Axelsson, Anna

2013-01-01

Considerable empirical research has been conducted on why policy tools such as environmental assessment (EA) often appear to have ‘little effect’ (after Weiss) on policy decisions. This article revisits this debate but looks at a mediating factor that has received limited attention to-date in the context of EA — political power. Using a tripartite analytical framework, a comparative analysis of the influence and significance of power in mediating environmental policy integration is undertaken. Power is analysed, albeit partially, through an exploration of institutions that underpin social order. Empirically, the research examines the case of a new approach to policy-level EA (essentially a form of Strategic Environmental Assessment) developed by the World Bank and its trial application to urban environmental governance and planning in Dhaka mega-city, Bangladesh. The research results demonstrate that power was intimately involved in mediating the influence of the policy EA approach, in both positive (enabling) and negative (constraining) ways. It is suggested that the policy EA approach was ultimately a manifestation of a corporate strategy to maintain the powerful position of the World Bank as a leading authority on international development which focuses on knowledge generation. Furthermore, as constitutive of an institution and reflecting the worldviews of its proponents, the development of a new approach to EA also represents a significant power play. This leads us to, firstly, emphasise the concepts of strategy and intentionality in theorising how and why EA tools are employed, succeed and fail; and secondly, reflect on the reasons why power has received such limited attention to-date in EA scholarship. - Highlights: ► Conducts empirical research on the neglected issue of power. ► Employs an interpretation of power in which it is viewed as a productive phenomenon. ► Analyses the influence of power in the trial application of a new approach to

Intelligent Techniques for Power Systems Vulnerability Assessment

OpenAIRE

Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi

2002-01-01

With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities.  This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control.  Vulnerability Assessment (VA) deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency.  Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks ...

Stochastic assessment of investment efficiency in a power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Davidov, Sreten; Pantoš, Miloš

2017-01-01

The assessment of investment efficiency plays a critical role in investment prioritization in the context of electrical network expansion planning. Hence, this paper proposes new criteria for the cost-efficiency investment applied in the investment ranking process in electrical network planning, based on the assessment of the new investment candidates impact on active-power losses, bus voltages and line loadings in the network. These three general criteria are chosen due to their strong economic influence when the active-power losses and line loadings are considered and due to their significant impact on quality of supply allowed for the voltage profile. Electrical network reliability of supply is not addressed, since, this criterion has already been extensively applied in other solutions regarding investment efficiency assessment. The proposed ranking procedure involves a stochastic approach applying the Monte Carlo method in the scenario preparation. The number of scenarios is further reduced by the K-MEANS procedure in order to speed up the investment efficiency assessment. The proposed ranking procedure is tested using the standard New England test system. The results show that based on the newly involved investment assessment criteria indices, system operators will obtain a prioritized list of investments that will prevent excessive and economically wasteful spending. - Highlights: • Active-Power Loss Investment Efficiency Index LEI. • Voltage Profile Investment Efficiency Index VEI. • Active-Power Flow Loading Mitigation Investment Efficiency Index PEI. • Optimization model for network expansion planning with new indices.

Assessing survivability to support power grid investment decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koziolek, Anne; Avritzer, Alberto; Suresh, Sindhu; Menasché, Daniel S.; Diniz, Morganna; Souza e Silva, Edmundo de; Leão, Rosa M.; Trivedi, Kishor; Happe, Lucia

2016-01-01

The reliability of power grids has been subject of study for the past few decades. Traditionally, detailed models are used to assess how the system behaves after failures. Such models, based on power flow analysis and detailed simulations, yield accurate characterizations of the system under study. However, they fall short on scalability. In this paper, we propose an efficient and scalable approach to assess the survivability of power systems. Our approach takes into account the phased-recovery of the system after a failure occurs. The proposed phased-recovery model yields metrics such as the expected accumulated energy not supplied between failure and full recovery. Leveraging the predictive power of the model, we use it as part of an optimization framework to assist in investment decisions. Given a budget and an initial circuit to be upgraded, we propose heuristics to sample the solution space in a principled way accounting for survivability-related metrics. We have evaluated the feasibility of this approach by applying it to the design of a benchmark distribution automation circuit. Our empirical results indicate that the combination of survivability and power flow analysis can provide meaningful investment decision support for power systems engineers. - Highlights: • We propose metrics and models for scalable survivability analysis of power systems. • The survivability model captures the system phased-recovery, from failure to repair. • The survivability model is used as a building block of an optimization framework. • Heuristics assist in investment options accounting for survivability-related metrics.

An Integrated Multi-Criteria Decision Making Model and AHP Weighting Uncertainty Analysis for Sustainability Assessment of Coal-Fired Power Units

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dianfa Wu

2018-05-01

Full Text Available The transformation of the power generation industry from coal-based to more sustainable energy sources is an irreversible trend. In China, the coal-fired power plant, as the main electric power supply facility at present, needs to know its own sustainability level to face the future competition. A hybrid multi-criteria decision making (MCDM model is proposed in this paper to assess the sustainability levels of the existing Chinese coal-fired power units. The areal grey relational analysis (AGRA method is involved in the hybrid model, and a combined weighting method is used to determine the priorities of the criteria. The combining weight fuses the fuzzy rough set (FRS and entropy objective weighting method together with the analytic hierarchy process (AHP subjective weighting method by game theory. Moreover, an AHP weighting uncertainty analysis using Monte Carlo (MC simulation is introduced to measure the uncertainty of the results, and a 95 percent confidence interval (CI is defined as the uncertainty measurement of the alternatives. A case study about eight coal-fired power units is carried out with a criteria system, which contains five aspects in an operational perspective, such as the flexibility, economic, environmental, reliability and technical criterion. The sustainability assessment is performed at the unit level, and the results give a priority rank of the eight alternatives; additionally, the uncertainty analysis supplies the extra information from a statistical perspective. This work expands a novel hybrid MCDM method to the sustainability assessment of the power generation systems, and it may be a benefit to the energy enterprises in assessing the sustainability at the unit level and enhance its ability in future sustainable development.

Assessment of statistical methods used in library-based approaches to microbial source tracking.

Science.gov (United States)

Ritter, Kerry J; Carruthers, Ethan; Carson, C Andrew; Ellender, R D; Harwood, Valerie J; Kingsley, Kyle; Nakatsu, Cindy; Sadowsky, Michael; Shear, Brian; West, Brian; Whitlock, John E; Wiggins, Bruce A; Wilbur, Jayson D

2003-12-01

Several commonly used statistical methods for fingerprint identification in microbial source tracking (MST) were examined to assess the effectiveness of pattern-matching algorithms to correctly identify sources. Although numerous statistical methods have been employed for source identification, no widespread consensus exists as to which is most appropriate. A large-scale comparison of several MST methods, using identical fecal sources, presented a unique opportunity to assess the utility of several popular statistical methods. These included discriminant analysis, nearest neighbour analysis, maximum similarity and average similarity, along with several measures of distance or similarity. Threshold criteria for excluding uncertain or poorly matched isolates from final analysis were also examined for their ability to reduce false positives and increase prediction success. Six independent libraries used in the study were constructed from indicator bacteria isolated from fecal materials of humans, seagulls, cows and dogs. Three of these libraries were constructed using the rep-PCR technique and three relied on antibiotic resistance analysis (ARA). Five of the libraries were constructed using Escherichia coli and one using Enterococcus spp. (ARA). Overall, the outcome of this study suggests a high degree of variability across statistical methods. Despite large differences in correct classification rates among the statistical methods, no single statistical approach emerged as superior. Thresholds failed to consistently increase rates of correct classification and improvement was often associated with substantial effective sample size reduction. Recommendations are provided to aid in selecting appropriate analyses for these types of data.

Statistical Models to Assess the Health Effects and to Forecast Ground Level Ozone

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Schlink, U.; Herbath, O.; Richter, M.; Dorling, S.; Nunnari, G.; Cawley, G.; Pelikán, Emil

2006-01-01

Roč. 21, č. 4 (2006), s. 547-558 ISSN 1364-8152 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET400300414 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10300504 Keywords : statistical models * ground level ozone * health effects * logistic model * forecasting * prediction performance * neural network * generalised additive model * integrated assessment Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 1.992, year: 2006

Power-up: A Reanalysis of 'Power Failure' in Neuroscience Using Mixture Modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Nord, Camilla L; Valton, Vincent; Wood, John; Roiser, Jonathan P

2017-08-23

Recently, evidence for endemically low statistical power has cast neuroscience findings into doubt. If low statistical power plagues neuroscience, then this reduces confidence in the reported effects. However, if statistical power is not uniformly low, then such blanket mistrust might not be warranted. Here, we provide a different perspective on this issue, analyzing data from an influential study reporting a median power of 21% across 49 meta-analyses (Button et al., 2013). We demonstrate, using Gaussian mixture modeling, that the sample of 730 studies included in that analysis comprises several subcomponents so the use of a single summary statistic is insufficient to characterize the nature of the distribution. We find that statistical power is extremely low for studies included in meta-analyses that reported a null result and that it varies substantially across subfields of neuroscience, with particularly low power in candidate gene association studies. Therefore, whereas power in neuroscience remains a critical issue, the notion that studies are systematically underpowered is not the full story: low power is far from a universal problem. SIGNIFICANCE STATEMENT Recently, researchers across the biomedical and psychological sciences have become concerned with the reliability of results. One marker for reliability is statistical power: the probability of finding a statistically significant result given that the effect exists. Previous evidence suggests that statistical power is low across the field of neuroscience. Our results present a more comprehensive picture of statistical power in neuroscience: on average, studies are indeed underpowered-some very seriously so-but many studies show acceptable or even exemplary statistical power. We show that this heterogeneity in statistical power is common across most subfields in neuroscience. This new, more nuanced picture of statistical power in neuroscience could affect not only scientific understanding, but potentially

Transient stability risk assessment of power systems incorporating wind farms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Miao, Lu; Fang, Jiakun; Wen, Jinyu

2013-01-01

fed induction generator has been established. Wind penetration variation and multiple stochastic factors of power systems have been considered. The process of transient stability risk assessment based on the Monte Carlo method has been described and a comprehensive risk indicator has been proposed......Large-scale wind farm integration has brought several aspects of challenges to the transient stability of power systems. This paper focuses on the research of the transient stability of power systems incorporating with wind farms by utilizing risk assessment methods. The detailed model of double....... An investigation has been conducted into an improved 10-generator 39-bus system with a wind farm incorporated to verify the validity and feasibility of the risk assessment method proposed....

Assessment of the Lillgrund Windfarm, Power Performance and Wake Effects. Lillgrund Pilot Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dahlberg, Jan-Aake (Vattenfall Vindkraft AB, Stockholm (Sweden))

2009-06-15

In this report, an assessment of the power performance of individual turbines, as well as for the whole wind farm, Lillgrund, is presented. By using the nearby meteorological mast, a power performance assessment, in line with international standards, has been carried out for three turbines located close to the met mast, as well as for the whole farm. The derived power curves for the single turbines are almost identical, and slightly better than, the power curves given in WindPro. The assessment of the power performance of the whole wind farm resulted in an average power curve that is significantly lower than the power curve for an undisturbed turbine. The overall energy efficiency of the farm, calculated from the measured wind farm power curve and assuming a Rayleigh distributed wind speed with an annual average value of 8.0 m/s, gives an efficiency value of about 77%. The losses are relatively high, which is not surprising, for such a dense wind farm configuration. The Lillgrund wind farm is considered to have a very dense configuration and it is, therefore, of great interest to investigate how shading effects (wake effects) will influence the production. The main objective of the project has been to analyze the power output of the whole wind farm for different wind directions and wind speeds and thus identify and quantify the wake effects. Shading effects are defined as the power ratio between the power output of one or more selected object turbines and the power levels of one or more reference turbines, located up front. Shading effects have been identified for a number of cases and can be clearly demonstrated. Significant wake effects occur when the wind is blowing along a row of turbines. The maximum peak loss occurs for the second turbine in the row and is, for inter row spacing of 4.4xD, typically 70%, and for row spacing of 3.3xD, typically 80%. One assumption that has been adopted is that power reduction only occurs for production below rated wind speeds

Reliability assessment for safety critical systems by statistical random testing

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mills, S.E.

1995-11-01

In this report we present an overview of reliability assessment for software and focus on some basic aspects of assessing reliability for safety critical systems by statistical random testing. We also discuss possible deviations from some essential assumptions on which the general methodology is based. These deviations appear quite likely in practical applications. We present and discuss possible remedies and adjustments and then undertake applying this methodology to a portion of the SDS1 software. We also indicate shortcomings of the methodology and possible avenues to address to follow to address these problems. (author). 128 refs., 11 tabs., 31 figs

Reliability assessment for safety critical systems by statistical random testing

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mills, S E [Carleton Univ., Ottawa, ON (Canada). Statistical Consulting Centre

1995-11-01

In this report we present an overview of reliability assessment for software and focus on some basic aspects of assessing reliability for safety critical systems by statistical random testing. We also discuss possible deviations from some essential assumptions on which the general methodology is based. These deviations appear quite likely in practical applications. We present and discuss possible remedies and adjustments and then undertake applying this methodology to a portion of the SDS1 software. We also indicate shortcomings of the methodology and possible avenues to address to follow to address these problems. (author). 128 refs., 11 tabs., 31 figs.

Mathematics authentic assessment on statistics learning: the case for student mini projects

Science.gov (United States)

Fauziah, D.; Mardiyana; Saputro, D. R. S.

2018-03-01

Mathematics authentic assessment is a form of meaningful measurement of student learning outcomes for the sphere of attitude, skill and knowledge in mathematics. The construction of attitude, skill and knowledge achieved through the fulfilment of tasks which involve active and creative role of the students. One type of authentic assessment is student mini projects, started from planning, data collecting, organizing, processing, analysing and presenting the data. The purpose of this research is to learn the process of using authentic assessments on statistics learning which is conducted by teachers and to discuss specifically the use of mini projects to improving students’ learning in the school of Surakarta. This research is an action research, where the data collected through the results of the assessments rubric of student mini projects. The result of data analysis shows that the average score of rubric of student mini projects result is 82 with 96% classical completeness. This study shows that the application of authentic assessment can improve students’ mathematics learning outcomes. Findings showed that teachers and students participate actively during teaching and learning process, both inside and outside of the school. Student mini projects also provide opportunities to interact with other people in the real context while collecting information and giving presentation to the community. Additionally, students are able to exceed more on the process of statistics learning using authentic assessment.

WORKSHOP ON APPLICATION OF STATISTICAL METHODS TO BIOLOGICALLY-BASED PHARMACOKINETIC MODELING FOR RISK ASSESSMENT

Science.gov (United States)

Biologically-based pharmacokinetic models are being increasingly used in the risk assessment of environmental chemicals. These models are based on biological, mathematical, statistical and engineering principles. Their potential uses in risk assessment include extrapolation betwe...

A statistical assessment of differences and equivalences between genetically modified and reference plant varieties

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Voet, van der H.; Perry, J.N.; Amzal, B.; Paoletti, C.

2011-01-01

Background - Safety assessment of genetically modified organisms is currently often performed by comparative evaluation. However, natural variation of plant characteristics between commercial varieties is usually not considered explicitly in the statistical computations underlying the assessment.

LWR safety studies. Analyses and further assessments relating to the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants. Vol. 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1983-01-01

This documentation of the activities of the Oeko-Institut is intended to show errors made and limits encountered in the experimental approaches and in results obtained by the work performed under phase A of the German Risk Assessment Study on Nuclear Power Plants (DRS). Concern is expressed and explained relating to the risk definition used in the Study, and the results of other studies relied on; specific problems of methodology are discussed with regard to the value of fault-tree/accident analyses for describing the course of safety-related events, and to the evaluations presented in the DRS. The Markov model is explained as an approach offering alternative solutions. The identification and quantification of common-mode failures is discussed. Origin, quality and methods of assessing the reliability characteristics used in the DRS as well as the statistical models for describing failure scenarios of reactor components and systems are critically reviewed. (RF) [de

An investigation of the statistical power of neutrality tests based on comparative and population genetic data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhai, Weiwei; Nielsen, Rasmus; Slatkin, Montgomery

2009-01-01

In this report, we investigate the statistical power of several tests of selective neutrality based on patterns of genetic diversity within and between species. The goal is to compare tests based solely on population genetic data with tests using comparative data or a combination of comparative...... and population genetic data. We show that in the presence of repeated selective sweeps on relatively neutral background, tests based on the d(N)/d(S) ratios in comparative data almost always have more power to detect selection than tests based on population genetic data, even if the overall level of divergence...... selection. The Hudson-Kreitman-Aguadé test is the most powerful test for detecting positive selection among the population genetic tests investigated, whereas McDonald-Kreitman test typically has more power to detect negative selection. We discuss our findings in the light of the discordant results obtained...

Building damage assessment from PolSAR data using texture parameters of statistical model

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Linlin; Liu, Xiuguo; Chen, Qihao; Yang, Shuai

2018-04-01

Accurate building damage assessment is essential in providing decision support for disaster relief and reconstruction. Polarimetric synthetic aperture radar (PolSAR) has become one of the most effective means of building damage assessment, due to its all-day/all-weather ability and richer backscatter information of targets. However, intact buildings that are not parallel to the SAR flight pass (termed oriented buildings) and collapsed buildings share similar scattering mechanisms, both of which are dominated by volume scattering. This characteristic always leads to misjudgments between assessments of collapsed buildings and oriented buildings from PolSAR data. Because the collapsed buildings and the intact buildings (whether oriented or parallel buildings) have different textures, a novel building damage assessment method is proposed in this study to address this problem by introducing texture parameters of statistical models. First, the logarithms of the estimated texture parameters of different statistical models are taken as a new texture feature to describe the collapse of the buildings. Second, the collapsed buildings and intact buildings are distinguished using an appropriate threshold. Then, the building blocks are classified into three levels based on the building block collapse rate. Moreover, this paper also discusses the capability for performing damage assessment using texture parameters from different statistical models or using different estimators. The RADARSAT-2 and ALOS-1 PolSAR images are used to present and analyze the performance of the proposed method. The results show that using the texture parameters avoids the problem of confusing collapsed and oriented buildings and improves the assessment accuracy. The results assessed by using the K/G0 distribution texture parameters estimated based on the second moment obtain the highest extraction accuracies. For the RADARSAT-2 and ALOS-1 data, the overall accuracy (OA) for these three types of

Development of statistical analysis code for meteorological data (W-View)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tachibana, Haruo; Sekita, Tsutomu; Yamaguchi, Takenori [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

2003-03-01

A computer code (W-View: Weather View) was developed to analyze the meteorological data statistically based on 'the guideline of meteorological statistics for the safety analysis of nuclear power reactor' (Nuclear Safety Commission on January 28, 1982; revised on March 29, 2001). The code gives statistical meteorological data to assess the public dose in case of normal operation and severe accident to get the license of nuclear reactor operation. This code was revised from the original code used in a large office computer code to enable a personal computer user to analyze the meteorological data simply and conveniently and to make the statistical data tables and figures of meteorology. (author)

Nuclear power plant performance statistics. Comparison with fossil-fired units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tabet, C.; Laue, H.J.; Qureshi, A.; Skjoeldebrand, R.; White, D.

1983-01-01

The joint UNIPEDE/World Energy Conference Committee on Availability of Thermal Generating Plants has a mandate to study the availability of thermal plants and the different factors that influence it. This has led to the collection and publication at the Congress of the World Energy Conference (WEC) every third year of availability and unavailability factors to be used in systems reliability studies and operations and maintenance planning. For nuclear power plants the joint UNIPEDE/WEC Committee relies on the IAEA to provide availability and unavailability data. The IAEA has published an annual report with operating data from nuclear plants in its Member States since 1971, covering in addition back data from the early 1960s. These reports have developed over the years and in the early 1970s the format was brought into close conformity with that used by UNIPEDE and WEC to report performance of fossil-fired generating plants. Since 1974 an annual analytical summary report has been prepared. In 1981 all information on operating experience with nuclear power plants was placed in a computer file for easier reference. The computerized Power Reactor Information System (PRIS) ensures that data are easily retrievable and at its present level it remains compatible with various national systems. The objectives for the IAEA data collection and evaluation have developed significantly since 1970. At first, the IAEA primarily wanted to enable the individual power plant operator to compare the performance of his own plant with that of others of the same type; when enough data had been collected, they provided the basis for assessment of the fundamental performance parameters used in economic project studies; now, the data base merits being used in setting availability objectives for power plant operations. (author)

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook

2015-01-01

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Sang Hun; Kang, Hyun Gook [Dept. of Nuclear and Quantum Engineering, KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-06-15

Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

Assessing Statistical Change Indices in Selected Social Work Intervention Research Studies

Science.gov (United States)

Ham, Amanda D.; Huggins-Hoyt, Kimberly Y.; Pettus, Joelle

2016-01-01

Objectives: This study examined how evaluation and intervention research (IR) studies assessed statistical change to ascertain effectiveness. Methods: Studies from six core social work journals (2009-2013) were reviewed (N = 1,380). Fifty-two evaluation (n= 27) and intervention (n = 25) studies met the inclusion criteria. These studies were…

Micro and mini hydroelectric power assessment in Uruguay

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nunes, V.; Genta, J.L.

1996-01-01

The School of Engineering in Montevideo, Uruguay, within the framework of Agreements made with the National Utility, has carried out an assessment of the potential and studies of the feasibility of the use of renewable energy for the generation of electrical power, both at the industrial level and the autonomous level for rural electrification. Original assessment methodologies were developed, including calculation tools which allow, for example, to analyze historical meteorological data, to calculate the available energy in different kinds of energy generators and also to stimulate the operation and design of autonomous systems with established load requirements and service quality. At the micro and mini hydropower assessment, the main role was placed on the census of potential users and the preliminary analysis of the representative places for the different technical solutions adequate to the variety of topographic conditions and load requirements. For power above 1 MW and up to 5 MW, the generating potential was assessed all over the country. If power lower than 1 MW or lower than 100kW (mini and micro) is considered, the information available in maps with contour lines, including in those of a 1:50,000 scale, is not enough to identify the most adequate places. Instead, knowledge of the place is indispensable in these cases. A preliminary plan of several installations was worked out. (Author)

A powerful score-based test statistic for detecting gene-gene co-association.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Jing; Yuan, Zhongshang; Ji, Jiadong; Zhang, Xiaoshuai; Li, Hongkai; Wu, Xuesen; Xue, Fuzhong; Liu, Yanxun

2016-01-29

The genetic variants identified by Genome-wide association study (GWAS) can only account for a small proportion of the total heritability for complex disease. The existence of gene-gene joint effects which contains the main effects and their co-association is one of the possible explanations for the "missing heritability" problems. Gene-gene co-association refers to the extent to which the joint effects of two genes differ from the main effects, not only due to the traditional interaction under nearly independent condition but the correlation between genes. Generally, genes tend to work collaboratively within specific pathway or network contributing to the disease and the specific disease-associated locus will often be highly correlated (e.g. single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in linkage disequilibrium). Therefore, we proposed a novel score-based statistic (SBS) as a gene-based method for detecting gene-gene co-association. Various simulations illustrate that, under different sample sizes, marginal effects of causal SNPs and co-association levels, the proposed SBS has the better performance than other existed methods including single SNP-based and principle component analysis (PCA)-based logistic regression model, the statistics based on canonical correlations (CCU), kernel canonical correlation analysis (KCCU), partial least squares path modeling (PLSPM) and delta-square (δ (2)) statistic. The real data analysis of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) further confirmed its advantages in practice. SBS is a powerful and efficient gene-based method for detecting gene-gene co-association.

An Integrated Assessment Framework of Offshore Wind Power Projects Applying Equator Principles and Social Life Cycle Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yu-Che Tseng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper reviews offshore wind power project finance and provides an integrated assessment that employs Equator Principles, life cycle assessment, risk assessment, materiality analysis, credit assessment, and ISAE 3000 assurance. We have not seen any comprehensive review papers or book chapters that covers the entire offshore wind power project finance process. We also conducted an SWancor Formosa Phase 1 case study to illustrate the application of integrated assessment to better assist policymakers, wind farm developers, practitioners, potential investors and observers, and stakeholders in their decisions. We believe that this paper can form part of the effort to reduce information asymmetry and the transaction costs of wind power project finance, as well as mobilize green finance investments from the financial sector to renewable energy projects to achieve a national renewable energy policy.

A statistical proposal for environmental impact assessment of development projects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Plazas C, Julian A; De J Lema T, Alvaro; Leon P, Juan Diego

2009-01-01

Environmental impact assessment of development projects is a fundamental process, which main goal is to avoid that their construction and functioning, lead to serious and negative consequences on the environment. Some of the most important limitations of the models employed to assess environmental impacts, are the subjectivity of its parameters and weights, and the multicolineality among the variables, which represent high quantities of similar information. This work presents a multivariate statistical-based method that tries to diminish such limitations. For this purpose, environmental impact assessment, is valuated through different environmental impact attributes and environmental elements, synthesized in an environmental quality index (ICA in Spanish). ICA can be applied at different levels, such as at a project level, or applied only at a partial level on one or some environmental components.

Assessment and mitigation of power quality problems for PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP)

Science.gov (United States)

Zakaria, Mohd Fazli; Ramachandaramurthy, Vigna K.

2017-01-01

An electrical power systems are exposed to different types of power quality disturbances. Investigation and monitoring of power quality are necessary to maintain accurate operation of sensitive equipment especially for nuclear installations. This paper will discuss the power quality problems observed at the electrical sources of PUSPATI TRIGA Reactor (RTP). Assessment of power quality requires the identification of any anomalous behavior on a power system, which adversely affects the normal operation of electrical or electronic equipment. A power quality assessment involves gathering data resources; analyzing the data (with reference to power quality standards) then, if problems exist, recommendation of mitigation techniques must be considered. Field power quality data is collected by power quality recorder and analyzed with reference to power quality standards. Normally the electrical power is supplied to the RTP via two sources in order to keep a good reliability where each of them is designed to carry the full load. The assessment of power quality during reactor operation was performed for both electrical sources. There were several disturbances such as voltage harmonics and flicker that exceeded the thresholds. To reduce these disturbances, mitigation techniques have been proposed, such as to install passive harmonic filters to reduce harmonic distortion, dynamic voltage restorer (DVR) to reduce voltage disturbances and isolate all sensitive and critical loads.

Assessment of cerebral circulation in normal fetuses by three-dimensional power Doppler ultrasonography

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Milani, Hérbene José Figuinha; Sá Barreto, Enoch Quinderé de; Araujo Júnior, Edward; Haratz, Karina Krajden; Rolo, Liliam Cristine; Nardozza, Luciano Marcondes Machado; Moron, Antonio Fernandes

2012-01-01

Objective: To assess the three-dimensional power Doppler ultrasonography (3D power Doppler) vascular indices in the middle cerebral artery (MCA), anterior cerebral artery (ACA) and posterior cerebral artery (PCA) territories. Methods: A cross-sectional study was carried out on 111 normal pregnancies between 26 and 34 weeks. The MCA, ACA and PCA territories closest to the transducer were scanned and volumes were calculated by using the VOCAL (Virtual Organ Computer-aided Analysis) program. The 3D power Doppler indices – vascularization index (VI), flow index (FI) and vascularization-flow index (VFI) were calculated. Scatter graphs, Pearson correlation coefficients (r) and linear regression models were used. Results: Only the FI-MCA (r = 0.38 and p < 0.001), VFI-MCA (r = 0.23 and p = 0.016) and FI-PCA (r = 0.191 and p = 0.040) had a low correlation with gestational age. The other 3D power Doppler indices VI-MCA (r = 0.153 and p = 0.150), VI-ACA (r = 0.105 and p = 0.271), FI-ACA (r = 0.154 and p = 0.106), VFI-ACA (r = 0.134 and p = 0.161), VI-PCA (r = 0.105 and p = 0.270) and VFI-PCA (r = 0.126 and p = 0.180) showed no statistically significant correlation with gestational. Conclusion: It was observed a low correlation between gestational age and the FI-MCA, VFI-MCA and FI-PCA.

Contrast-enhanced power Doppler endosonography and pathological assessment of vascularization in advanced gastric carcinomas--a feasibility study.

Science.gov (United States)

Iordache, Sevastiţa; Filip, Maria-Monalisa; Georgescu, Claudia-Valentina; Angelescu, Cristina; Ciurea, Tudorel; Săftoiu, Adrian

2012-06-01

Besides representing angiogenesis markers, microvascular density (MVD) and vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) are two important tools for the assessment of prognosis in patients with gastric cancer. The aim of our study was to assess the Doppler parameters (resistivity and pulsatility indexes) and vascularity index (VI) calculated by contrast-enhanced power Doppler endoscopic ultrasound (CEPD-EUS) in correlation with the expression of intra-tumoral MVD and VEGF in patients with gastric cancer. The study included 20 consecutive patients with advanced gastric carcinoma, but without distant metastasis at initial assessment. All the patients were assessed by contrast-enhanced power Doppler endoscopic ultrasound (EUS) combined with pulsed Doppler examinations in the late venous phase. The vascularity index (VI) was calculated before and after injection of second generation microbubble contrast specific agent (SonoVue 2.4 mL), used as a Doppler signal enhancer. Moreover, pulsed Doppler parameters (resistivity and pulsatility indexes) were further calculated. The correlation between power Doppler parameters and pathological/molecular parameters (MVD assessed through immunohistochemistry with CD31 and CD34, as well as VEGF assessed through real-time PCR) was assessed. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was used for the assessment of prognosis. Significantly statistical correlations were found between post-contrast VI and CD34 (p=0.0226), VEGF (p=0.0231), VEGF-A (p=0.0464) and VEGF-B (p=0.0022) while pre-contrast VI was correlated only with CD34 expression. Pulsatility index and resistivity index were not correlated with MVD or VEGF expression. Survival analysis demonstrated that VEGF-A is an accurate parameter for survival rate (p=0.045), as compared to VEGF (p=0.085) and VEGF-B (p=0.230). We did not find any correlation between the survival rate and ultrasound parameters (RI, PI, pre-contrast VI or post-contrast VI). Assessment of tumor vascularity using contrast

Intelligent Techniques for Power Systems Vulnerability Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamed A. El-Sharkawi

2002-06-01

Full Text Available With power grids considered national security matters, the reliable operation of the system is of top priority to utilities.  This concern is amplified by the utility’s deregulation, which increases the system’s openness while simultaneously decreasing the applied degree of control.  Vulnerability Assessment (VA deals with the power system’s ability to continue to provide service in case of an unforeseen catastrophic contingency.  Such contingencies may include unauthorized tripping, breaks in communication links, sabotage or intrusion by external agents, human errors, natural calamities and faults.  These contingencies could lead to a disruption of service to part or all of the system.  The service disruption is known as outage or blackout.  The paper outlines an approach by which feature extraction and boundary tracking can be implemented to achieve on line vulnerability assessment.

Life cycle assessment for coordination development of nuclear power and electric vehicle

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu Hong; Wang Yingrong

2010-01-01

Energy, environment and climate change have become focus political topics. In this paper, the life cycle assessment for cooperation development of nuclear power and electric vehicle were analyzed from the view of energy efficiency and pollutant emissions. The assessment results show that the pathway of nuclear power coupled with electric vehicle is better than coal electric power coupled with electric vehicle and normal gasoline coupled with internal combustion engine powered vehicle in terms of the environmental and energy characteristics. To charge the electric vehicle, instead of water power station, can safeguard the stable operation of nuclear power station. The results could provide consulted for coordination development of nuclear power, electric vehicle and brain power electric net. (authors)

Calibrating the Difficulty of an Assessment Tool: The Blooming of a Statistics Examination

Science.gov (United States)

Dunham, Bruce; Yapa, Gaitri; Yu, Eugenia

2015-01-01

Bloom's taxonomy is proposed as a tool by which to assess the level of complexity of assessment tasks in statistics. Guidelines are provided for how to locate tasks at each level of the taxonomy, along with descriptions and examples of suggested test questions. Through the "Blooming" of an examination--that is, locating its constituent…

Integrated societal risk assessment framework for nuclear power and renewable energy sources

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sang Hun Lee

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Recently, the estimation of the social cost of energy sources has been emphasized as various novel energy options become feasible in addition to conventional ones. In particular, the social cost of introducing measures to protect power-distribution systems from power-source instability and the cost of accident-risk response for various power sources must be investigated. To account for these risk factors, an integrated societal risk assessment framework, based on power-uncertainty analysis and accident-consequence analysis, is proposed. In this study, we applied the proposed framework to nuclear power plants, solar photovoltaic systems, and wind-turbine generators. The required capacity of gas-turbine power plants to be used as backup power facilities to compensate for fluctuations in the power output from the main power source was estimated based on the performance indicators of each power source. The average individual health risk per terawatt-hours (TWh of electricity produced by each power source was quantitatively estimated by assessing accident frequency and the consequences of specific accident scenarios based on the probabilistic risk assessment methodology. This study is expected to provide insight into integrated societal risk analysis, and can be used to estimate the social cost of various power sources.

Windfarm Generation Assessment for ReliabilityAnalysis of Power Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Negra, Nicola Barberis; Holmstrøm, Ole; Bak-Jensen, Birgitte

2007-01-01

Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...

Windfarm generation assessment for reliability analysis of power systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Negra, N.B.; Holmstrøm, O.; Bak-Jensen, B.

2007-01-01

Due to the fast development of wind generation in the past ten years, increasing interest has been paid to techniques for assessing different aspects of power systems with a large amount of installed wind generation. One of these aspects concerns power system reliability. Windfarm modelling plays...

A New Statistical Approach for the Evaluation of Gap-prepulse Inhibition of the Acoustic Startle Reflex (GPIAS for Tinnitus Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Achim Schilling

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Background: An increasingly used behavioral paradigm for the objective assessment of a possible tinnitus percept in animal models has been proposed by Turner and coworkers in 2006. It is based on gap-prepulse inhibition (PPI of the acoustic startle reflex (ASR and usually referred to as GPIAS. As it does not require conditioning it became the method of choice to study neuroplastic phenomena associated with the development of tinnitus.Objective: It is still controversial if GPIAS is really appropriate for tinnitus screening, as the hypothesis that a tinnitus percept impairs the gap detection ability (“filling-in interpretation” is still questioned. Furthermore, a wide range of criteria for positive tinnitus detection in GPIAS have been used across different laboratories and there still is no consensus on a best practice for statistical evaluation of GPIAS results. Current approaches are often based on simple averaging of measured PPI values and comparisons on a population level without the possibility to perform valid statistics on the level of the single animal.Methods: A total number of 32 animals were measured using the standard GPIAS paradigm with varying number of measurement repetitions. Based on this data further statistical considerations were performed.Results: We here present a new statistical approach to overcome the methodological limitations of GPIAS. In a first step we show that ASR amplitudes are not normally distributed. Next we estimate the distribution of the measured PPI values by exploiting the full combinatorial power of all measured ASR amplitudes. We demonstrate that the amplitude ratios (1-PPI are approximately lognormally distributed, allowing for parametrical testing of the logarithmized values and present a new statistical approach allowing for a valid and reliable statistical assessment of PPI changes in GPIAS.Conclusion: Based on our statistical approach we recommend using a constant criterion, which does not

Sample Size Requirements for Assessing Statistical Moments of Simulated Crop Yield Distributions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Lehmann, N.; Finger, R.; Klein, T.; Calanca, P.

2013-01-01

Mechanistic crop growth models are becoming increasingly important in agricultural research and are extensively used in climate change impact assessments. In such studies, statistics of crop yields are usually evaluated without the explicit consideration of sample size requirements. The purpose of

Statistical considerations of graphite strength for assessing design allowable stresses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ishihara, M.; Mogi, H.; Ioka, I.; Arai, T.; Oku, T.

1987-01-01

Several aspects of statistics need to be considered to determine design allowable stresses for graphite structures. These include: 1) Statistical variation of graphite material strength. 2) Uncertainty of calculated stress. 3) Reliability (survival probability) required from operational and safety performance of graphite structures. This paper deals with some statistical considerations of structural graphite for assessing design allowable stress. Firstly, probability distribution functions of tensile and compressive strengths are investigated on experimental Very High Temperature candidated graphites. Normal, logarithmic normal and Weibull distribution functions are compared in terms of coefficient of correlation to measured strength data. This leads to the adaptation of normal distribution function. Then, the relation between factor of safety and fracture probability is discussed on the following items: 1) As the graphite strength is more variable than metalic material's strength, the effect of strength variation to the fracture probability is evaluated. 2) Fracture probability depending on survival probability of 99 ∼ 99.9 (%) with confidence level of 90 ∼ 95 (%) is discussed. 3) As the material properties used in the design analysis are usually the mean values of their variation, the additional effect of these variations on the fracture probability is discussed. Finally, the way to assure the minimum ultimate strength with required survival probability with confidence level is discussed in view of statistical treatment of the strength data from varying sample numbers in a material acceptance test. (author)

Millstone nuclear power plant emergency system assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Akhmad Khusyairi

2011-01-01

U.S.NRC determined an obligation to build a nuclear power plant emergency response organization for both on-site and off-site. Millstone Nuclear Power Plants have 3 nuclear reactors and 2 of 3 still in commercial operation. Reactor unit 1, BWR type has been permanently shut down in 1998, while the two others, units 2 and 3 obtain the extended operating license respectively until 2035 and 2045. As a nuclear installation has the high potential radiological impact, Millstone nuclear power plant emergency response organization must establish both on-site or off-site. Emergency response organization that is formed must involve several state agencies, both state agencies and municipality. They have specific duties and functions in a state of emergency, so that protective measures can be undertaken in accordance with the community that has been planned. Meanwhile, NRC conduct their own independent assessment of nuclear power plant emergencies. (author)

The assessment of tornado missile hazard to nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goodman, J.; Koch, J.E.

1983-01-01

Numerical methods and computer codes for assessing tornado missile hazards to nuclear power plants are developed. Due to the uncertainty and randomness of tornado and tornado-generated missiles' characteristics, the damage probability of targets has a highly spread distribution. The proposed method is useful for assessing the risk of not providing protection to some nonsafety-related targets whose failure can create a hazard to the safe operation of nuclear power plants

IAEA releases nuclear power statistics for 2000

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

According to data reported to the IAEA Power Reactor Information System, a total of 438 NPPs were operating around the world at the end of 2000. The total installed power from NPPs was 351 GWe. During 2000, six plants were connected to the grid, construction of three new nuclear reactors started, bringing the total number of reactors under construction to 31. Worldwide in 2000, total nuclear generated electricity increased to 2447.53 terawatt-hours. Cumulative worldwide operating experience from civil nuclear power reactors at the end of 2000 exceeded 9800 reactor years

Probabilistic safety assessment in nuclear power plant management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holloway, N.J.

1989-06-01

Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) techniques have been widely used over the past few years to assist in understanding how engineered systems respond to abnormal conditions, particularly during a severe accident. The use of PSAs in the design and operation of such systems thus contributes to the safety of nuclear power plants. Probabilistic safety assessments can be maintained to provide a continuous up-to-date assessment (Living PSA), supporting the management of plant operations and modifications

A Tsunami Fragility Assessment for Nuclear Power Plants in Korea

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Min Kyu; Choi, In Kil; Kang, Keum Seok

2009-01-01

Although Tsunami events were defined as an external event in 'PRA Procedure Guide (NUREG/CR- 2300)'after 1982, a Tsunami event was not considered in a design and construction of NPP before the Sumatra earthquake in 2004. But the Madras Atomic Power Station, a commercial nuclear power plant owned and operated by the Nuclear Power Corporation of India Limited (NPCIL), and located near Chennai, India, was affected by the tsunami generated by the 2004 Sumatra earthquake (USNRC 2008). The condenser cooling pumps of Unit 2 of the installation were affected due to flooding of the pump house and subsequent submergence of the seawater pumps by tsunami waves. The turbine was tripped and the reactor shut down. The unit was brought to a cold-shutdown state, and the shutdown-cooling systems were reported as operating safely. After this event, Tsunami hazards were considered as one of the major natural disasters which can affect the safety of Nuclear Power Plants. The IAEA performed an Extrabudgetary project for Tsunami Hazard Assessment and finally an International Seismic Safety Center (ISSC) established in IAEA for protection from natural disasters like earthquake, tsunami etc. For this reason, a tsunami hazard assessment method determined in this study. At first, a procedure for tsunami hazard assessment method was established, and second target equipment and structures for investigation of Tsunami Hazard assessment were selected. Finally, a sample fragility calculation was performed for one of equipment in Nuclear Power Plant

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

Environmental assessment of submarine power cables

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Isus, Daniel; Martinez, Juan D. [Grupo General Cable Sistemas, S.A., 08560-Manlleu, Barcelona (Spain); Arteche, Amaya; Del Rio, Carmen; Madina, Virginia [Tecnalia Research and Innovation, 20009 San Sebastian (Spain)

2011-03-15

Extensive analyses conducted by the European Community revealed that offshore wind energy have relatively benign effects on the marine environment by comparison to other forms of electric power generation [1]. However, the materials employed in offshore wind power farms suffer major changes to be confined to the marine environment at extreme conditions: saline medium, hydrostatic pressure... which can produce an important corrosion effect. This phenomenon can affect on the one hand, to the material from the structural viewpoint and on the other hand, to the marine environment. In this sense, to better understand the environmental impacts of generating electricity from offshore wind energy, this study evaluated the life cycle assessment for some new designs of submarine power cables developed by General Cable. To achieve this goal, three approaches have been carried out: leaching tests, eco-toxicity tests and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodologies. All of them are aimed to obtaining quantitative data for environmental assessment of selected submarine cables. LCA is a method used to assess environmental aspects and potential impacts of a product or activity. LCA does not include financial and social factors, which means that the results of an LCA cannot exclusively form the basis for assessment of a product's sustainability. Leaching tests results allowed to conclude that pH of seawater did not significantly changed by the presence of submarine three-core cables. Although, it was slightly higher in case of broken cable, pH values were nearly equals. Concerning to the heavy metals which could migrate to the aquatic medium, there were significant differences in both scenarios. The leaching of zinc is the major environmental concern during undersea operation of undamaged cables whereas the fully sectioned three-core cable produced the migration of significant quantities of copper and iron apart from the zinc migrated from the galvanized steel. Thus, the tar

Environmental assessment of submarine power cables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Isus, Daniel; Martinez, Juan D.; Arteche, Amaya; Del Rio, Carmen; Madina, Virginia

2011-03-01

Extensive analyses conducted by the European Community revealed that offshore wind energy have relatively benign effects on the marine environment by comparison to other forms of electric power generation [1]. However, the materials employed in offshore wind power farms suffer major changes to be confined to the marine environment at extreme conditions: saline medium, hydrostatic pressure... which can produce an important corrosion effect. This phenomenon can affect on the one hand, to the material from the structural viewpoint and on the other hand, to the marine environment. In this sense, to better understand the environmental impacts of generating electricity from offshore wind energy, this study evaluated the life cycle assessment for some new designs of submarine power cables developed by General Cable. To achieve this goal, three approaches have been carried out: leaching tests, eco-toxicity tests and Life Cycle Assessment (LCA) methodologies. All of them are aimed to obtaining quantitative data for environmental assessment of selected submarine cables. LCA is a method used to assess environmental aspects and potential impacts of a product or activity. LCA does not include financial and social factors, which means that the results of an LCA cannot exclusively form the basis for assessment of a product's sustainability. Leaching tests results allowed to conclude that pH of seawater did not significantly changed by the presence of submarine three-core cables. Although, it was slightly higher in case of broken cable, pH values were nearly equals. Concerning to the heavy metals which could migrate to the aquatic medium, there were significant differences in both scenarios. The leaching of zinc is the major environmental concern during undersea operation of undamaged cables whereas the fully sectioned three-core cable produced the migration of significant quantities of copper and iron apart from the zinc migrated from the galvanized steel. Thus, the tar

Sparse Power-Law Network Model for Reliable Statistical Predictions Based on Sampled Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alexander P. Kartun-Giles

2018-04-01

Full Text Available A projective network model is a model that enables predictions to be made based on a subsample of the network data, with the predictions remaining unchanged if a larger sample is taken into consideration. An exchangeable model is a model that does not depend on the order in which nodes are sampled. Despite a large variety of non-equilibrium (growing and equilibrium (static sparse complex network models that are widely used in network science, how to reconcile sparseness (constant average degree with the desired statistical properties of projectivity and exchangeability is currently an outstanding scientific problem. Here we propose a network process with hidden variables which is projective and can generate sparse power-law networks. Despite the model not being exchangeable, it can be closely related to exchangeable uncorrelated networks as indicated by its information theory characterization and its network entropy. The use of the proposed network process as a null model is here tested on real data, indicating that the model offers a promising avenue for statistical network modelling.

Environmental Impact Assessment for Olkiluoto 4 Nuclear Power Plant Unit in Finland

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dersten, Riitta; Gahmberg, Sini; Takala, Jenni

2008-01-01

In order to improve its readiness for constructing additional production capacity, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) initiated in spring 2007 the environmental impact assessment procedure (EIA procedure) concerning a new nuclear power plant unit that would possibly be located at Olkiluoto. When assessing the environmental impacts of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant extension project, the present state of the environment was first examined, and after that, the changes caused by the projects as well as their significance were assessed, taking into account the combined impacts of the operations at Olkiluoto. The environmental impact assessment for the planned nuclear power plant unit covers the entire life cycle of the plant unit. (authors)

Environmental Impact Assessment for Olkiluoto 4 Nuclear Power Plant Unit in Finland

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Dersten, Riitta; Gahmberg, Sini; Takala, Jenni [Teollisuuden Voima Oyj, Olkiluoto, FI-27160 Eurajoki (Finland)

2008-07-01

In order to improve its readiness for constructing additional production capacity, Teollisuuden Voima Oyj (TVO) initiated in spring 2007 the environmental impact assessment procedure (EIA procedure) concerning a new nuclear power plant unit that would possibly be located at Olkiluoto. When assessing the environmental impacts of the Olkiluoto nuclear power plant extension project, the present state of the environment was first examined, and after that, the changes caused by the projects as well as their significance were assessed, taking into account the combined impacts of the operations at Olkiluoto. The environmental impact assessment for the planned nuclear power plant unit covers the entire life cycle of the plant unit. (authors)

Seismic design of nuclear power plants - an assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Howard, G.E.; Ibanez, P.; Smith, C.B.

1976-01-01

This paper presents a review and evaluation of the design standards and the analytical and experimental methods used in the seismic design of nuclear power plants with emphasis on United States practice. Three major areas were investigated: (a) soils, siting, and seismic ground motion specification; (b) soil-structure interaction; and (c) the response of major nuclear power plant structures and components. The purpose of this review and evaluation program was to prepare an independent assessment of the state-of-the-art of the seismic design of nuclear power plants and to identify seismic analysis and design research areas meriting support by the various organizations comprising the 'nuclear power industry'. Criteria used for evaluating the relative importance of alternative research areas included the potential research impact on nuclear power plant siting, design, construction, cost, safety, licensing, and regulation. (Auth.)

Assessment of the GPC Control Quality Using Non–Gaussian Statistical Measures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Domański Paweł D.

2017-06-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an alternative approach to the task of control performance assessment. Various statistical measures based on Gaussian and non-Gaussian distribution functions are evaluated. The analysis starts with the review of control error histograms followed by their statistical analysis using probability distribution functions. Simulation results obtained for a control system with the generalized predictive controller algorithm are considered. The proposed approach using Cauchy and Lévy α-stable distributions shows robustness against disturbances and enables effective control loop quality evaluation. Tests of the predictive algorithm prove its ability to detect the impact of the main controller parameters, such as the model gain, the dynamics or the prediction horizon.

Statistical Analysis of Solar PV Power Frequency Spectrum for Optimal Employment of Building Loads

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Olama, Mohammed M [ORNL; Sharma, Isha [ORNL; Kuruganti, Teja [ORNL; Fugate, David L [ORNL

2017-01-01

In this paper, a statistical analysis of the frequency spectrum of solar photovoltaic (PV) power output is conducted. This analysis quantifies the frequency content that can be used for purposes such as developing optimal employment of building loads and distributed energy resources. One year of solar PV power output data was collected and analyzed using one-second resolution to find ideal bounds and levels for the different frequency components. The annual, seasonal, and monthly statistics of the PV frequency content are computed and illustrated in boxplot format. To examine the compatibility of building loads for PV consumption, a spectral analysis of building loads such as Heating, Ventilation and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) units and water heaters was performed. This defined the bandwidth over which these devices can operate. Results show that nearly all of the PV output (about 98%) is contained within frequencies lower than 1 mHz (equivalent to ~15 min), which is compatible for consumption with local building loads such as HVAC units and water heaters. Medium frequencies in the range of ~15 min to ~1 min are likely to be suitable for consumption by fan equipment of variable air volume HVAC systems that have time constants in the range of few seconds to few minutes. This study indicates that most of the PV generation can be consumed by building loads with the help of proper control strategies, thereby reducing impact on the grid and the size of storage systems.

Power of mental health nursing research: a statistical analysis of studies in the International Journal of Mental Health Nursing.

Science.gov (United States)

Gaskin, Cadeyrn J; Happell, Brenda

2013-02-01

Having sufficient power to detect effect sizes of an expected magnitude is a core consideration when designing studies in which inferential statistics will be used. The main aim of this study was to investigate the statistical power in studies published in the International Journal of Mental Health Nursing. From volumes 19 (2010) and 20 (2011) of the journal, studies were analysed for their power to detect small, medium, and large effect sizes, according to Cohen's guidelines. The power of the 23 studies included in this review to detect small, medium, and large effects was 0.34, 0.79, and 0.94, respectively. In 90% of papers, no adjustments for experiment-wise error were reported. With a median of nine inferential tests per paper, the mean experiment-wise error rate was 0.51. A priori power analyses were only reported in 17% of studies. Although effect sizes for correlations and regressions were routinely reported, effect sizes for other tests (χ(2)-tests, t-tests, ANOVA/MANOVA) were largely absent from the papers. All types of effect sizes were infrequently interpreted. Researchers are strongly encouraged to conduct power analyses when designing studies, and to avoid scattergun approaches to data analysis (i.e. undertaking large numbers of tests in the hope of finding 'significant' results). Because reviewing effect sizes is essential for determining the clinical significance of study findings, researchers would better serve the field of mental health nursing if they reported and interpreted effect sizes. © 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Mental Health Nursing © 2012 Australian College of Mental Health Nurses Inc.

Exposure time independent summary statistics for assessment of drug dependent cell line growth inhibition.

Science.gov (United States)

Falgreen, Steffen; Laursen, Maria Bach; Bødker, Julie Støve; Kjeldsen, Malene Krag; Schmitz, Alexander; Nyegaard, Mette; Johnsen, Hans Erik; Dybkær, Karen; Bøgsted, Martin

2014-06-05

In vitro generated dose-response curves of human cancer cell lines are widely used to develop new therapeutics. The curves are summarised by simplified statistics that ignore the conventionally used dose-response curves' dependency on drug exposure time and growth kinetics. This may lead to suboptimal exploitation of data and biased conclusions on the potential of the drug in question. Therefore we set out to improve the dose-response assessments by eliminating the impact of time dependency. First, a mathematical model for drug induced cell growth inhibition was formulated and used to derive novel dose-response curves and improved summary statistics that are independent of time under the proposed model. Next, a statistical analysis workflow for estimating the improved statistics was suggested consisting of 1) nonlinear regression models for estimation of cell counts and doubling times, 2) isotonic regression for modelling the suggested dose-response curves, and 3) resampling based method for assessing variation of the novel summary statistics. We document that conventionally used summary statistics for dose-response experiments depend on time so that fast growing cell lines compared to slowly growing ones are considered overly sensitive. The adequacy of the mathematical model is tested for doxorubicin and found to fit real data to an acceptable degree. Dose-response data from the NCI60 drug screen were used to illustrate the time dependency and demonstrate an adjustment correcting for it. The applicability of the workflow was illustrated by simulation and application on a doxorubicin growth inhibition screen. The simulations show that under the proposed mathematical model the suggested statistical workflow results in unbiased estimates of the time independent summary statistics. Variance estimates of the novel summary statistics are used to conclude that the doxorubicin screen covers a significant diverse range of responses ensuring it is useful for biological

ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT PROGRAM (EMAP): WESTERN STREAMS AND RIVERS STATISTICAL SUMMARY

Science.gov (United States)

This statistical summary reports data from the Environmental Monitoring and Assessment Program (EMAP) Western Pilot (EMAP-W). EMAP-W was a sample survey (or probability survey, often simply called 'random') of streams and rivers in 12 states of the western U.S. (Arizona, Californ...

Dark matter statistics for large galaxy catalogs: power spectra and covariance matrices

Science.gov (United States)

Klypin, Anatoly; Prada, Francisco

2018-06-01

Large-scale surveys of galaxies require accurate theoretical predictions of the dark matter clustering for thousands of mock galaxy catalogs. We demonstrate that this goal can be achieve with the new Parallel Particle-Mesh (PM) N-body code GLAM at a very low computational cost. We run ˜22, 000 simulations with ˜2 billion particles that provide ˜1% accuracy of the dark matter power spectra P(k) for wave-numbers up to k ˜ 1hMpc-1. Using this large data-set we study the power spectrum covariance matrix. In contrast to many previous analytical and numerical results, we find that the covariance matrix normalised to the power spectrum C(k, k΄)/P(k)P(k΄) has a complex structure of non-diagonal components: an upturn at small k, followed by a minimum at k ≈ 0.1 - 0.2 hMpc-1, and a maximum at k ≈ 0.5 - 0.6 hMpc-1. The normalised covariance matrix strongly evolves with redshift: C(k, k΄)∝δα(t)P(k)P(k΄), where δ is the linear growth factor and α ≈ 1 - 1.25, which indicates that the covariance matrix depends on cosmological parameters. We also show that waves longer than 1h-1Gpc have very little impact on the power spectrum and covariance matrix. This significantly reduces the computational costs and complexity of theoretical predictions: relatively small volume ˜(1h-1Gpc)3 simulations capture the necessary properties of dark matter clustering statistics. As our results also indicate, achieving ˜1% errors in the covariance matrix for k < 0.50 hMpc-1 requires a resolution better than ɛ ˜ 0.5h-1Mpc.

Application of a Statistical Linear Time-Varying System Model of High Grazing Angle Sea Clutter for Computing Interference Power

Science.gov (United States)

2017-12-08

STATISTICAL LINEAR TIME-VARYING SYSTEM MODEL OF HIGH GRAZING ANGLE SEA CLUTTER FOR COMPUTING INTERFERENCE POWER 1. INTRODUCTION Statistical linear time...beam. We can approximate one of the sinc factors using the Dirichlet kernel to facilitate computation of the integral in (6) as follows: ∣∣∣∣sinc(WB...plotted in Figure 4. The resultant autocorrelation can then be found by substituting (18) into (28). The Python code used to generate Figures 1-4 is found

A multivariate statistical methodology for detection of degradation and failure trends using nuclear power plant operational data

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Samanta, P.K.; Teichmann, T.

1990-01-01

In this paper, a multivariate statistical method is presented and demonstrated as a means for analyzing nuclear power plant transients (or events) and safety system performance for detection of malfunctions and degradations within the course of the event based on operational data. The study provides the methodology and illustrative examples based on data gathered from simulation of nuclear power plant transients (due to lack of easily accessible operational data). Such an approach, once fully developed, can be used to detect failure trends and patterns and so can lead to prevention of conditions with serious safety implications

New method of safety assessment for pressure vessel of nuclear power plant--brief introduction of master curve approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yang Wendou

2011-01-01

The new Master Curve Method is called as a revolutionary advance to the assessment of- reactor pressure vessel integrity in USA. This paper explains the origin, basis and standard of the Master Curve from the reactor pressure-temperature limit curve which assures the safety of nuclear power plant. According to the characteristics of brittle fracture which is greatly susceptible to the microstructure, the theory and the test method of the Master Curve as well as its statistical law which can be modeled using Weibull distribution are described in this paper. The meaning, advantage, application and importance of the Master Curve as well as the relation between the Master Curve and nuclear power safety are understood from the fitting formula for the fracture toughness database by Weibull distribution model. (author)

Power station impacts: socio-economic impact assessment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glasson, John; Elson, Martin; Barrett, Brendan; Wee, D. Van der

1987-01-01

The aim of this study is to assess the local social and economic impacts of a proposed nuclear power station development at Hinkley Point in Somerset. The proposed development, Hinkley Point C, would be an addition to the existing Hinkley Point A Magnox station, commissioned in 1965, and the Hinkley Point B Advanced Gas Cooled Reactor (AGR) station, commissioned in 1976. It is hoped that the study will be of assistance to the CEGB, the Somerset County and District Councils and other agencies in their studies of the proposed development. In addition, the study seeks to apply and further develop the methodology and results from previous studies by the Power Station Impacts (PSI) team for predicting the social and economic effects of proposed power station developments on their localities. (author)

Statistical tables 2003

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2003-01-01

The energy statistical table is a selection of statistical data for energies and countries from 1997 to 2002. It concerns the petroleum, the natural gas, the coal, the electric power, the production, the external market, the consumption per sector, the energy accounting 2002 and graphs on the long-dated forecasting. (A.L.B.)

Harmonic statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eliazar, Iddo

2017-01-01

The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.

Harmonic statistics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eliazar, Iddo, E-mail: eliazar@post.tau.ac.il

2017-05-15

The exponential, the normal, and the Poisson statistical laws are of major importance due to their universality. Harmonic statistics are as universal as the three aforementioned laws, but yet they fall short in their ‘public relations’ for the following reason: the full scope of harmonic statistics cannot be described in terms of a statistical law. In this paper we describe harmonic statistics, in their full scope, via an object termed harmonic Poisson process: a Poisson process, over the positive half-line, with a harmonic intensity. The paper reviews the harmonic Poisson process, investigates its properties, and presents the connections of this object to an assortment of topics: uniform statistics, scale invariance, random multiplicative perturbations, Pareto and inverse-Pareto statistics, exponential growth and exponential decay, power-law renormalization, convergence and domains of attraction, the Langevin equation, diffusions, Benford’s law, and 1/f noise. - Highlights: • Harmonic statistics are described and reviewed in detail. • Connections to various statistical laws are established. • Connections to perturbation, renormalization and dynamics are established.

Science assessment of fusion power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nagai, Toru; Shimazu, Yasuo

1984-01-01

A concept of SCIENCE ASSESSMENT (SA) is proposed to support a research program of the so-called big science. The SA System should be established before the demonstration reactor is realized, and the system is classified into four categories: (1) Resource Economy Assessment (REA) (cost evaluation and availability of rare resource materials), (2) Risk Assessment (RA) (structural safety during operation and accident), (3) Environmental Assessment (EA) (adaptability to environments), and (4) Socio-Political Assessment (SPA) (from local public acceptance to national policy acceptance). Here, REA to the published conceptual designs of commercial fusion power plants (most of them are TOKAMAK) is carried out as the first step. The energy analysis method is imployed because the final goal of fusion plant is to supply energy. The evaluation index is the energy ratio (= output/input). Computer code for energy analysis was developed, to which the material inventory table from the conceptual design and the database for the energy intensity (= energy required to obtain a unit amount of materials) were prepared. (Nogami, K.)

Statistical analysis of the behaviour of the mechanical equipment of EDFs power plants - evaluation of the availability and safety of thermal and nuclear units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Brillon, A.; Cravero, M.; Lucenet, G.

1975-01-01

The investigation and research directorate of EDF has undertaken a statistical analysis of the behaviour of large mechanical equipment at conventional power stations during the ten years following the operating reports of these stations. It has thus been possible to determine the intrinsic reliability, the failure rate, the mean repair time, and the mean good operating time of feed water reheating points, power turbines, pumps and boilers of the various EDF plants (125 and 250 MW) leading to a consideration of the feasibility of an extrapolation to present and future plants. Based on these elementary investigation two methods of calculation have been developed. One is used to assess the overall availability of a thermal or nuclear power station based on the knowledge of the failure rates of the equipment, each piece of equipment being associated with an idea of its technical importance in the functioning of the equipment. A numerical application is given for 125 and 250 MW conventional plants. The purpose of the other method is to estimate the operational safety of the safety equipment of nuclear power stations, based on the development of tree diagrams for faults in basic equipment. A numerical example is given for the cooling systems for Phenix and for one of the Super Phenix versions. (author)

Statistically based evaluation of toughness properties of components in older nuclear power stations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aurich, D.; Jaenicke, B.; Veith, H.

1996-01-01

The KTA code 3201.2 contains provisions for the evaluation of K Ic values measured in components, but there are no instructions on how to proceed. According to the present state of the art in science and technology, fracture toughness values K Ic (T) should be evaluated statistically in order to specify the relationship to the loading values K I (T). The 'Master Curve' concept of Wallin yields too flat a curve shape at high temperatures. The statistical evaluation of K Ic values can also be carried out with the KTA-K Ic reference temperature function assuming a normal distribution of the measuring values. The KTA-K Ic reference temperature curve approximately corresponds to a fracture probability of 5 % when the KTA-K Ic reference temperature function is used for the statistical evaluation of the test results. Conclusions for the assessment of the safe distances can be drawn from the steeper shape of the KTA-K Ic reference temperature function in comparison to the 'Master Curve'. (orig.) [de

Development of assessment procedures at the CEGB's nuclear power training centre

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chapman, C.R.; Harris, N.D.C.

1986-01-01

The work of a power station engineer can be considered under four aspects: technology, diagnosis action and communication. The development, validation and use of assessment procedures can successfully incorporate the same aspects. The purposes of assessment are reporting training achievement and giving feedback to course members and tutorial staff. The development of standardized procedures to produce, evaluate and mark assessments and to optimize feedback ensures objectivity and uniformity. This has been achieved at the Central Electricity Generating Board's Nuclear Power Training Centre by enlisting an educational consultant to provide guidance and assist in training the resident tutors in assessment procedures. (author)

Probabilistic safety assessment technology for commercial nuclear power plant security evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liming, J.K.; Johnson, D.H.; Dykes, A.A.

2004-01-01

Commercial nuclear power plant physical security has received much more intensive treatment and regulatory attention since September 11, 2001. In light of advancements made by the nuclear power industry in the field of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) for its power plants over that last 30 years, and given the many examples of successful applications of risk-informed regulation at U. S. nuclear power plants during recent years, it may well be advisable to apply a 'risk-informed' approach to security management at nuclear power plants from now into the future. In fact, plant PSAs developed in response to NRC Generic Letter 88-20 and related requirements are used to help define target sets of critical plant safety equipment in our current security exercises for the industry. With reasonable refinements, plant PSAs can be used to identify, analyze, and evaluate reasonable and prudent approaches to address security issues and associated defensive strategies at nuclear power plants. PSA is the ultimate scenario-based approach to risk assessment, and thus provides a most powerful tool in identifying and evaluating potential risk management decisions. This paper provides a summary of observations of factors that are influencing or could influence cost-effective or 'cost-reasonable' security management decision-making in the current political environment, and provides recommendations for the application of PSA tools and techniques to the nuclear power plant operational safety response exercise process. The paper presents a proposed framework for nuclear power plant probabilistic terrorist risk assessment that applies these tools and techniques. (authors)

Impact assessment of tornado against nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sato, Daisuke

2015-01-01

The impact assessment of tornado against nuclear power plants conforms to the 'Assessment guide for tornado effect on nuclear power plants' stipulated by the Nuclear Regulation Authority. In face of the assessment, important items are the setting of the maximum wind speed considered in design, and the setting of a flying object evaluation model, on the basis of observation results. The Japan Society of Maintenology summarized the verification results of the concept on the setting of tornado design and flying object valuation model, the contents of which are explained here. The following are explained: (1) validity of the setting of tornado design in the Assessment Guide, (2) analysis of synoptic field, (3) study on the regional characteristics of tornado occurrence environmental field by means of the analysis of synoptic field and gust associated index, and (4) setting of tornado design based on the above (1)-(3). Next, on the flying object evaluation model, the authors picked up the Rankine vortex model and Fujita model, and verified the reproducibility of the models using the features of each and the actual state of tornado damage. (A.O.)

Assessment of the beryllium lymphocyte proliferation test using statistical process control.

Science.gov (United States)

Cher, Daniel J; Deubner, David C; Kelsh, Michael A; Chapman, Pamela S; Ray, Rose M

2006-10-01

Despite more than 20 years of surveillance and epidemiologic studies using the beryllium blood lymphocyte proliferation test (BeBLPT) as a measure of beryllium sensitization (BeS) and as an aid for diagnosing subclinical chronic beryllium disease (CBD), improvements in specific understanding of the inhalation toxicology of CBD have been limited. Although epidemiologic data suggest that BeS and CBD risks vary by process/work activity, it has proven difficult to reach specific conclusions regarding the dose-response relationship between workplace beryllium exposure and BeS or subclinical CBD. One possible reason for this uncertainty could be misclassification of BeS resulting from variation in BeBLPT testing performance. The reliability of the BeBLPT, a biological assay that measures beryllium sensitization, is unknown. To assess the performance of four laboratories that conducted this test, we used data from a medical surveillance program that offered testing for beryllium sensitization with the BeBLPT. The study population was workers exposed to beryllium at various facilities over a 10-year period (1992-2001). Workers with abnormal results were offered diagnostic workups for CBD. Our analyses used a standard statistical technique, statistical process control (SPC), to evaluate test reliability. The study design involved a repeated measures analysis of BeBLPT results generated from the company-wide, longitudinal testing. Analytical methods included use of (1) statistical process control charts that examined temporal patterns of variation for the stimulation index, a measure of cell reactivity to beryllium; (2) correlation analysis that compared prior perceptions of BeBLPT instability to the statistical measures of test variation; and (3) assessment of the variation in the proportion of missing test results and how time periods with more missing data influenced SPC findings. During the period of this study, all laboratories displayed variation in test results that

Applying contemporary statistical techniques

CERN Document Server

Wilcox, Rand R

2003-01-01

Applying Contemporary Statistical Techniques explains why traditional statistical methods are often inadequate or outdated when applied to modern problems. Wilcox demonstrates how new and more powerful techniques address these problems far more effectively, making these modern robust methods understandable, practical, and easily accessible.* Assumes no previous training in statistics * Explains how and why modern statistical methods provide more accurate results than conventional methods* Covers the latest developments on multiple comparisons * Includes recent advanc

STATISTICS IN SERVICE QUALITY ASSESSMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dragana Gardašević

2012-09-01

Full Text Available For any quality evaluation in sports, science, education, and so, it is useful to collect data to construct a strategy to improve the quality of services offered to the user. For this purpose, we use statistical software packages for data processing data collected in order to increase customer satisfaction. The principle is demonstrated by the example of the level of student satisfaction ratings Belgrade Polytechnic (as users the quality of institutions (Belgrade Polytechnic. Here, the emphasis on statistical analysis as a tool for quality control in order to improve the same, and not the interpretation of results. Therefore, the above can be used as a model in sport to improve the overall results.

Nuclear power plant insurance - experience and loss statistics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feldmann, J.; Dangelmaier, P.

1982-01-01

Nuclear power plants are treated separately when concluding insurance contracts. National insurance pools have been established in industrial countries, co-operating on an international basis, for insuring a nuclear power plant. In combined property insurance, the nuclear risk is combined with the fire risk. In addition, there are the engineering insurances. Of these, the one of significance for nuclear power plants is the machinery insurance, which can be covered on the free insurance market. Nuclear power plants have had fewer instances of damage than other, conventional installations. (orig.) [de

Union Gas assessment protocol for power generator air and noise emissions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Complin, P.

2008-01-01

This paper outlined a procedure for obtaining data to facilitate air and noise compliance assessments for emergency and other fuel-fired power generators. Facilities with the generators may contain additional sources of nitrogen oxides (NO x ). The assessments are required for each new or modified generator in order to ensure that regulatory requirements in the Air Pollution Local Air Quality Regulation and the Noise Pollution Control documents are met. The air emission assessments follow the Ontario Ministry of the Environment (MOE) report. The paper included a screening process to screen out generators with negligible emissions. A maximum power rating was calculated using AP-2 emission factors and a conservative heat rating assumption. Maximum power ratings for various types of generators were presented. The information requirements included a description of the type of engine used; sound power level data; octave band insertion loss data; and plan and section drawings of the generator room. 2 tabs.

Frequency-volume Statistics of Rock Falls: Examples From France, Italy and California

Science.gov (United States)

Dussauge-Peisser, C.; Guzzetti, F.; Wieczorek, G. F.

There is accumulating evidence that the distribution of rock-fall volume exhibits power law (fractal) statistics in different physiographic and geologic environments. We have studied the frequency-volume statistics of rock falls in three areas: Grenoble, France; Umbria, Italy; and Yosemite Valley, California, USA. We present a compari- son of the datasets currently available. For the Grenoble area a catalogue of rock falls between 1248 and 1995 occurred along a 120 km long limestone cliff. The dataset contains information on 105 rock-fall events ranging in size from 3xE-2 to 5xE8 m3. Only the time window 1935-1995 is considered in the study, involving 87 events from 1E-2 to 1E6 m3. The cumulative frequency-volume statistics follow a power-law (frac- tal) relationship with exponent b = -0.4 over the range 50 m3 Yosemite Valley the database contains information on historical (1851-2001) rock falls (122), rock slides (251) and prehistoric rock avalanches (5). For Yosemite, the non-cumulative frequency-volume statistics of rock falls and rock slides are very sim- ilar and correlate well with a power-law (fractal) relation with exponent beta = -1.4, over the range 30 m3 power law also fits the volume distribution of rock avalanches. We discuss the implications of such a power law fitting the data for rock-fall hazard assessment. We also discuss the variation of the b and beta exponents for natural events and earthquake triggered events.

Reliability Analysis and Overload Capability Assessment of Oil-Immersed Power Transformers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Wang

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Smart grids have been constructed so as to guarantee the security and stability of the power grid in recent years. Power transformers are a most vital component in the complicated smart grid network. Any transformer failure can cause damage of the whole power system, within which the failures caused by overloading cannot be ignored. This research gives a new insight into overload capability assessment of transformers. The hot-spot temperature of the winding is the most critical factor in measuring the overload capacity of power transformers. Thus, the hot-spot temperature is calculated to obtain the duration running time of the power transformers under overloading conditions. Then the overloading probability is fitted with the mature and widely accepted Weibull probability density function. To guarantee the accuracy of this fitting, a new objective function is proposed to obtain the desired parameters in the Weibull distributions. In addition, ten different mutation scenarios are adopted in the differential evolutionary algorithm to optimize the parameter in the Weibull distribution. The final comprehensive overload capability of the power transformer is assessed by the duration running time as well as the overloading probability. Compared with the previous studies that take no account of the overloading probability, the assessment results obtained in this research are much more reliable.

Energy statistics of pre-revolutionary Russia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

N. S. Simonov

2017-01-01

last objective study of the state of the pre-revolutionary electric power industry in 1920 was carried out by the developers of the GOELRO plan from the 6th (Petrograd group (engineers T.F. Makariev, A.I. Firsov, Y.A. Samoilovich and professor N.N. Georgievsky. With the help of expert assessments, they established that in 1916 all public power stations and block stations of the census industry produced approximately 4,730 million kWh of electric power-twice as much as in 1913. Based on the revealed range of historical statistical sources, it is proved that in 1913–1916, The Russian Empire in terms of electricity production was one of the top five industrialized countries. The dynamic development of the electric power industry in the Russian Empire was interrupted by the succession of social and political cataclysms that shook the very foundations of Russian statehood. This period, which lasted until the end of 1921, was characterized by a complete degradation of the electric power industry. The fuel hunger, separation from the RSFSR of Baku and the Donbass, paralyzed the work of many power plants, both factory and general use. 

Statistics for products of traces of high powers of the frobenius class of hyperelliptic curves

OpenAIRE

Roditty-Gershon, Edva

2011-01-01

We study the averages of products of traces of high powers of the Frobenius class of hyperelliptic curves of genus g over a fixed finite field. We show that for increasing genus g, the limiting expectation of these products equals to the expectation when the curve varies over the unitary symplectic group USp(2g). We also consider the scaling limit of linear statistics for eigenphases of the Frobenius class of hyperelliptic curves, and show that their first few moments are Gaussian.

Statistical power and utility of meta-analysis methods for cross-phenotype genome-wide association studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Zhu, Zhaozhong; Anttila, Verneri; Smoller, Jordan W; Lee, Phil H

2018-01-01

Advances in recent genome wide association studies (GWAS) suggest that pleiotropic effects on human complex traits are widespread. A number of classic and recent meta-analysis methods have been used to identify genetic loci with pleiotropic effects, but the overall performance of these methods is not well understood. In this work, we use extensive simulations and case studies of GWAS datasets to investigate the power and type-I error rates of ten meta-analysis methods. We specifically focus on three conditions commonly encountered in the studies of multiple traits: (1) extensive heterogeneity of genetic effects; (2) characterization of trait-specific association; and (3) inflated correlation of GWAS due to overlapping samples. Although the statistical power is highly variable under distinct study conditions, we found the superior power of several methods under diverse heterogeneity. In particular, classic fixed-effects model showed surprisingly good performance when a variant is associated with more than a half of study traits. As the number of traits with null effects increases, ASSET performed the best along with competitive specificity and sensitivity. With opposite directional effects, CPASSOC featured the first-rate power. However, caution is advised when using CPASSOC for studying genetically correlated traits with overlapping samples. We conclude with a discussion of unresolved issues and directions for future research.

Reliability assessment of power pole infrastructure incorporating deterioration and network maintenance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ryan, Paraic C.; Stewart, Mark G.; Spencer, Nathan; Li, Yue

2014-01-01

There is considerable investment in timber utility poles worldwide, and there is a need to examine the structural reliability and probability based management optimisation of these power distribution infrastructure elements. The work presented in this paper builds on the existing studies in this area through assessment of both treated and untreated timber power poles, with the effects of deterioration and network maintenance incorporated in the analysis. This more realistic assessment approach, with deterioration and maintenance considered, was achieved using event-based Monte Carlo simulation. The output from the probabilistic model is used to illustrate the importance of considering network maintenance in the time-dependent structural reliability assessment of timber power poles. Under wind load, treated and untreated poles designed and maintained in accordance with existing Australian standards were found to have similar failure rates. However, untreated pole networks required approximately twice as many maintenance based pole replacements to sustain the same level of reliability. The effect of four different network maintenance strategies on infrastructure performance was also investigated herein. This assessment highlighted the fact that slight alterations to network maintenance practices can lead to significant changes in performance of timber power pole networks. - Highlights: • A time-dependent structural reliability model was developed for timber power poles. • Deterioration and network maintenance were incorporated into this event based model. • Network maintenance had a significant impact on power pole wind vulnerability. • Treated and untreated poles designed to Australian standards had similar reliability. • Minor alterations to maintenance strategies had large effects on network performance

Modern applied statistics with S-plus

CERN Document Server

Venables, W N

1994-01-01

S-Plus is a powerful environment for statistical and graphical analysis of data. It provides the tools to implement many statistical ideas which have been made possible by the widespread availability of workstations having good graphics and computational capabilities. This book is a guide to using S-Plus to perform statistical analyses and provides both an introduction to the use of S-Plus and a course in modern statistical methods. The aim of the book is to show how to use S-Plus as a powerful and graphical system. Readers are assumed to have a basic grounding in statistics, and so the book is intended for would-be users of S-Plus, and both students and researchers using statistics. Throughout, the emphasis is on presenting practical problems and full analyses of real data sets.

Life Cycle Assessment of Coal-fired Power Production

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Spath, P. L.; Mann, M. K.; Kerr, D. R.

1999-09-01

Coal has the largest share of utility power generation in the US, accounting for approximately 56% of all utility-produced electricity (US DOE, 1998). Therefore, understanding the environmental implications of producing electricity from coal is an important component of any plan to reduce total emissions and resource consumption. A life cycle assessment (LCA) on the production of electricity from coal was performed in order to examine the environmental aspects of current and future pulverized coal boiler systems. Three systems were examined: (1) a plant that represents the average emissions and efficiency of currently operating coal-fired power plants in the US (this tells us about the status quo), (2) a new coal-fired power plant that meets the New Source Performance Standards (NSPS), and (3) a highly advanced coal-fired power plant utilizing a low emission boiler system (LEBS).

The N-Pact Factor: Evaluating the Quality of Empirical Journals with Respect to Sample Size and Statistical Power

Science.gov (United States)

Fraley, R. Chris; Vazire, Simine

2014-01-01

The authors evaluate the quality of research reported in major journals in social-personality psychology by ranking those journals with respect to their N-pact Factors (NF)—the statistical power of the empirical studies they publish to detect typical effect sizes. Power is a particularly important attribute for evaluating research quality because, relative to studies that have low power, studies that have high power are more likely to (a) to provide accurate estimates of effects, (b) to produce literatures with low false positive rates, and (c) to lead to replicable findings. The authors show that the average sample size in social-personality research is 104 and that the power to detect the typical effect size in the field is approximately 50%. Moreover, they show that there is considerable variation among journals in sample sizes and power of the studies they publish, with some journals consistently publishing higher power studies than others. The authors hope that these rankings will be of use to authors who are choosing where to submit their best work, provide hiring and promotion committees with a superior way of quantifying journal quality, and encourage competition among journals to improve their NF rankings. PMID:25296159

The Novel Quantitative Technique for Assessment of Gait Symmetry Using Advanced Statistical Learning Algorithm

OpenAIRE

Wu, Jianning; Wu, Bin

2015-01-01

The accurate identification of gait asymmetry is very beneficial to the assessment of at-risk gait in the clinical applications. This paper investigated the application of classification method based on statistical learning algorithm to quantify gait symmetry based on the assumption that the degree of intrinsic change in dynamical system of gait is associated with the different statistical distributions between gait variables from left-right side of lower limbs; that is, the discrimination of...

Sites and social assessment of nuclear power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nemoto, K [Central Research Inst. of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo (Japan)

1977-09-01

The sites of nuclear power plants in Japan have two features, first the extreme expectation for regional development because of the selection of depopulated districts for most locations, and the second, apprehensions of local people for two reasons of nuclear power generating techniques which do not plant the roots in society and handling of radioactive materials. In order to cope with these problems, it is necessary to consider that the development plan of the regions around reactor sites must be compiled systematically. Its premise is the ''social assessment'' which estimates the economical and social influences and evaluates the merit and demerit of nuclear power plants prior to the construction. This is of course inevitable. The objects of the assessment may be divided as follows: the human effect to individuals, the institutional effect to local community, the economical effect to region, and the national influence to the whole country. While the developmental action of locations includes the stages of examination, planning, construction and operation, and three location patterns are recognized according to the emphasized function, the improvement of national economy, upgrading of environmental quality, and the most priority in local welfare. In the process of the assessment, the following items may be taken notice that each item requires sometimes the weighting; the pattern to abandon location may exist; positive and negative effects are required to be distributed evenly in a triangle having the apexes each representing one of the above three patterns.

Statistical analysis of fuel failures in large break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) in EPR type nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arkoma, Asko; Hänninen, Markku; Rantamäki, Karin; Kurki, Joona; Hämäläinen, Anitta

2015-01-01

Highlights: • The number of failing fuel rods in a LB-LOCA in an EPR is evaluated. • 59 scenarios are simulated with the system code APROS. • 1000 rods per scenario are simulated with the fuel performance code FRAPTRAN-GENFLO. • All the rods in the reactor are simulated in the worst scenario. • Results suggest that the regulations set by the Finnish safety authority are met. - Abstract: In this paper, the number of failing fuel rods in a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) in EPR-type nuclear power plant is evaluated using statistical methods. For this purpose, a statistical fuel failure analysis procedure has been developed. The developed method utilizes the results of nonparametric statistics, the Wilks’ formula in particular, and is based on the selection and variation of parameters that are important in accident conditions. The accident scenario is simulated with the coupled fuel performance – thermal hydraulics code FRAPTRAN-GENFLO using various parameter values and thermal hydraulic and power history boundary conditions between the simulations. The number of global scenarios is 59 (given by the Wilks’ formula), and 1000 rods are simulated in each scenario. The boundary conditions are obtained from a new statistical version of the system code APROS. As a result, in the worst global scenario, 1.2% of the simulated rods failed, and it can be concluded that the Finnish safety regulations are hereby met (max. 10% of the rods allowed to fail)

Statistical analysis of fuel failures in large break loss-of-coolant accident (LBLOCA) in EPR type nuclear power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Arkoma, Asko, E-mail: asko.arkoma@vtt.fi; Hänninen, Markku; Rantamäki, Karin; Kurki, Joona; Hämäläinen, Anitta

2015-04-15

Highlights: • The number of failing fuel rods in a LB-LOCA in an EPR is evaluated. • 59 scenarios are simulated with the system code APROS. • 1000 rods per scenario are simulated with the fuel performance code FRAPTRAN-GENFLO. • All the rods in the reactor are simulated in the worst scenario. • Results suggest that the regulations set by the Finnish safety authority are met. - Abstract: In this paper, the number of failing fuel rods in a large break loss-of-coolant accident (LB-LOCA) in EPR-type nuclear power plant is evaluated using statistical methods. For this purpose, a statistical fuel failure analysis procedure has been developed. The developed method utilizes the results of nonparametric statistics, the Wilks’ formula in particular, and is based on the selection and variation of parameters that are important in accident conditions. The accident scenario is simulated with the coupled fuel performance – thermal hydraulics code FRAPTRAN-GENFLO using various parameter values and thermal hydraulic and power history boundary conditions between the simulations. The number of global scenarios is 59 (given by the Wilks’ formula), and 1000 rods are simulated in each scenario. The boundary conditions are obtained from a new statistical version of the system code APROS. As a result, in the worst global scenario, 1.2% of the simulated rods failed, and it can be concluded that the Finnish safety regulations are hereby met (max. 10% of the rods allowed to fail)

Modeling a power-to-renewable methane system for an assessment of power grid balancing options in the Baltic States’ region

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zoss, Toms; Dace, Elina; Blumberga, Dagnija

2016-01-01

Highlights: • A mathematical modeling framework developed for assessing power-to-methane systems. • An integrated system of wind power, electrolysis, biogas and methanation assessed. • Power system is more stable with methanizing biogas with H_2 from excess wind power. • Accumulation of H_2 limits production of renewable methane. • Large potential for wind power development in the Baltic States. - Abstract: The explicit tendency to increase the power generation from stochastic renewable resources forces to look for technological solutions of energy management and storage. In the recent years, the concept of power-to-gas, where the excess energy is converted into hydrogen and/or further methanized into renewable methane, is gaining high popularity among researchers. In this study, we assess the power-to-renewable methane system as the potential technology for power grid balancing. For the assessment, a mathematical model has been developed that assists in understanding of whether a power-to-renewable methane system can be developed in a region with specific installed and planned capacities of wind energy and biogas plants. Considering the varying amount of excess power available for H_2 production and the varying biogas quality, the aim of the model is to simulate the system to determine, if wind power generation meets the needs of biogas plants for storing the excess energy in the form of methane via the methanation process. For the case study, the Baltic States (Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania) have been selected, as the region is characterized by high dependence on fossil energy sources and electricity import. The results show that with the wind power produced in the region it would be possible to increase the average CH_4 content in the methanized biogas by up to 48.4%. Yet, even with a positive H_2 net production rate, not in all cases the maximum possible quality of the renewable methane would be achieved, as at moments the necessary amount of H_2 for

Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control (HIRARC Accidents at Power Plant

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ahmad Asmalia Che

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Power plant had a reputation of being one of the most hazardous workplace environments. Workers in the power plant face many safety risks due to the nature of the job. Although power plants are safer nowadays since the industry has urged the employer to improve their employees’ safety, the employees still stumble upon many hazards thus accidents at workplace. The aim of the present study is to investigate work related accidents at power plants based on HIRARC (Hazard Identification, Risk Assessment and Risk Control process. The data were collected at two coal-fired power plant located in Malaysia. The finding of the study identified hazards and assess risk relate to accidents occurred at the power plants. The finding of the study suggested the possible control measures and corrective actions to reduce or eliminate the risk that can be used by power plant in preventing accidents from occurred

Citizen preference assessment for power supply visions using choice experiments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Nakatani, Jun; Tahara, Kiyotaka; Tanaka, Koji; Matsumoto, Shinya; Mizuno, Tateki

2015-01-01

In this paper, citizen preferences for power supply visions were assessed using choice experiments. In particular, preferences for the composition of power generation including renewable energy and nuclear power were analyzed. We also investigated how the need and consciousness for electricity saving affected the preferences for power supply visions. The results indicated that a respondent group who felt negative about resuming the operations at nuclear power plants had discriminative preferences for attributes of the power supply visions, and that the priority of carbon dioxide emissions as a criterion for evaluating the power supply visions became lower when the composition of power generation was presented. Consciousness for electricity saving, as well as preferences for nuclear power generation, differed depending on regions of residence, while their relationship was similar among respondent groups who lived in the jurisdictional areas of the electric power companies that had experienced risks of demand-supply gaps. (author)

Cost/benefit assessment in electric power systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oteng-Adjei, J.

1990-01-01

The basic function of a modern power system is to satisfy the system load requirements as economically as possible and with a reasonable assurance of continuity and quality. The question of what is reasonable can be examined in terms of the costs and the worth to the consumer associated with providing an adequate supply. The process of preparing reliability worth estimates based on customer cost-of-interruption data is presented. These data can be derived for a particular utility service area and are used to determine appropriate customer damage functions. These indicators can be used with the basic loss of energy expectation (LOEE) index to obtain a factor that can be utilized to relate the customer losses to the worth of electric service reliability. This factor is designated as the interrupted energy assessment rate (IEAR). The developed IEAR values can be utilized in both generating capacity and composite generation and transmission system assessment. Methods for using these estimates in power system optimization at the planning stages are described and examples are used to illustrate the procedures. 106 refs., 77 figs., 64 tabs

Self-assessment on nuclear power plants operational experience feedback process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Hongtao; Ding Ying

2005-01-01

This paper introduces the purpose and function of self-assessment conducted by the responsible organizations of nuclear power plants, and describes the methods and requirements of self-assessment on operational experience feedback process to give a example. (authors)

The mediation of environmental assessment's influence: What role for power?

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cashmore, Matthew, E-mail: cashmore@plan.aau.dk [Danish Centre for Environmental Assessment, Department of Development and Planning, Aalborg University Copenhagen, A.C. Meyers Vaenge 15, DK-2450 Copenhagen SV (Denmark); Axelsson, Anna [Naturskyddsforeningen, Box 4625, 116 91 Stockholm (Sweden)

2013-02-15

Considerable empirical research has been conducted on why policy tools such as environmental assessment (EA) often appear to have 'little effect' (after Weiss) on policy decisions. This article revisits this debate but looks at a mediating factor that has received limited attention to-date in the context of EA - political power. Using a tripartite analytical framework, a comparative analysis of the influence and significance of power in mediating environmental policy integration is undertaken. Power is analysed, albeit partially, through an exploration of institutions that underpin social order. Empirically, the research examines the case of a new approach to policy-level EA (essentially a form of Strategic Environmental Assessment) developed by the World Bank and its trial application to urban environmental governance and planning in Dhaka mega-city, Bangladesh. The research results demonstrate that power was intimately involved in mediating the influence of the policy EA approach, in both positive (enabling) and negative (constraining) ways. It is suggested that the policy EA approach was ultimately a manifestation of a corporate strategy to maintain the powerful position of the World Bank as a leading authority on international development which focuses on knowledge generation. Furthermore, as constitutive of an institution and reflecting the worldviews of its proponents, the development of a new approach to EA also represents a significant power play. This leads us to, firstly, emphasise the concepts of strategy and intentionality in theorising how and why EA tools are employed, succeed and fail; and secondly, reflect on the reasons why power has received such limited attention to-date in EA scholarship. - Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Conducts empirical research on the neglected issue of power. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Employs an interpretation of power in which it is viewed as a productive phenomenon. Black

Sustainability assessment of renewable power and heat generation technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dombi, Mihály; Kuti, István; Balogh, Péter

2014-01-01

Rationalisation of consumption, more efficient energy usage and a new energy structure are needed to be achieved in order to shift the structure of energy system towards sustainability. The required energy system is among others characterised by intensive utilisation of renewable energy sources (RES). RES technologies have their own advantages and disadvantages. Nevertheless, for the strategic planning there is a great demand for the comparison of RES technologies. Furthermore, there are additional functions of RES utilisation expected beyond climate change mitigation, e.g. increment of employment, economic growth and rural development. The aim of the study was to reveal the most beneficial RES technologies with special respect to sustainability. Ten technologies of power generation and seven technologies of heat supply were examined in a multi-criteria sustainability assessment frame of seven attributes which were evaluated based on a choice experiment (CE) survey. According to experts the most important characteristics of RES utilisation technologies are land demand and social impacts i.e. increase in employment and local income generation. Concentrated solar power (CSP), hydropower and geothermal power plants are favourable technologies for power generation, while geothermal district heating, pellet-based non-grid heating and solar thermal heating can offer significant advantages in case of heat supply. - highlights: • We used choice experiment to estimate the weights of criteria for the sustainability assessment of RES technologies. • The most important attributes of RES technologies according to experts are land demand and social impacts. • Concentrated solar power (CSP), hydropower and geothermal power plants are advantageous technologies for power generation. • Geothermal district heating, pellet-based non-grid heating and solar thermal heating are favourable in case of heat supply

QQ-plots for assessing distributions of biomarker measurements and generating defensible summary statistics

Science.gov (United States)

One of the main uses of biomarker measurements is to compare different populations to each other and to assess risk in comparison to established parameters. This is most often done using summary statistics such as central tendency, variance components, confidence intervals, excee...

A new method to assess the statistical convergence of monte carlo solutions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Forster, R.A.

1991-01-01

Accurate Monte Carlo confidence intervals (CIs), which are formed with an estimated mean and an estimated standard deviation, can only be created when the number of particle histories N becomes large enough so that the central limit theorem can be applied. The Monte Carlo user has a limited number of marginal methods to assess the fulfillment of this condition, such as statistical error reduction proportional to 1/√N with error magnitude guidelines and third and fourth moment estimators. A new method is presented here to assess the statistical convergence of Monte Carlo solutions by analyzing the shape of the empirical probability density function (PDF) of history scores. Related work in this area includes the derivation of analytic score distributions for a two-state Monte Carlo problem. Score distribution histograms have been generated to determine when a small number of histories accounts for a large fraction of the result. This summary describes initial studies of empirical Monte Carlo history score PDFs created from score histograms of particle transport simulations. 7 refs., 1 fig

Power Doppler sonography and ultrasound contrast agent in assessing rheumatoid synovitis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. Salaffi

2011-09-01

Full Text Available Pannus formation is a fundamental event in the pathogenesis of rheumatoid arthritis and its hypervascularisation seems to be crucial to the development of joint damage. High-resolution greyscale ultrasonography is a safe, quick, and inexpensive imaging tool that allows an accurate detection of even minimal morphostructural changes in patients with rheumatoid arthritis, including joint effusion, thickening of synovial membrane and bone erosions. More recently, power Doppler sonography has proved to be a reliable tool for semiquantitative assessment of the vascularity of the synovial tissue. The contrast-enhanced power Doppler sonography seems to be a helpful adjunct in assessing synovitis and the therapeutic response to the different therapies in patients with rheumatoid arthritis. The aim of this radiological vignette was to show a representative example of use of power Doppler sonography with contrast agent in assessing rheumatoid synovitis.

A Meteorological Information Mining-Based Wind Speed Model for Adequacy Assessment of Power Systems With Wind Power

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Guo, Yifei; Gao, Houlei; Wu, Qiuwei

2017-01-01

Accurate wind speed simulation is an essential prerequisite to analyze the power systems with wind power. A wind speed model considering meteorological conditions and seasonal variations is proposed in this paper. Firstly, using the path analysis method, the influence weights of meteorological...... systems with wind power. The assessment results of the modified IEEE-RTS79 and IEEE-RTS96 demonstrated the effectiveness and accuracy of the proposed model....

Self-SALP/self-assessment at Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pieringer, P.; Slider, J.E.

1992-01-01

In recent years, utilities have undertaken various forms of self-assessment. These methods have as their goal early detection of weaknesses in plan performance to permit timely corrective action. Ideally, self-assessment methods identify problems at a lower threshold than do outside agencies, such as the US Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) and the Institute of Nuclear Power Operations (INPO). One of the more popular methods of self-assessment has been the self-SALP (systematic assessment of licensee performance). This method emulates the procedures of the NRC's SALP to render a subjective, overall assessment of performance. The experience of Baltimore Gas and Electric Company (BG and E) in applying self-SALP methods at its Calvert Cliffs nuclear power plant (CCNPP) provides insights useful to other utilities considering use of self-SALP methods. The factors leading to BG and E's decision to use a different approach may help others evaluate their self-assessment choices. This paper summarizes BG and E's experience with self-SALP methods and describes the methods that will be used to evaluate performance in the future

Probabilistic assessment of power system transient stability incorporating SMES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fang, Jiakun, E-mail: Jiakun.Fang@gmail.com [State Key Lab of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No. 1037, Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430074 (China); Yao, Wei [State Key Lab of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No. 1037, Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430074 (China); Wen, Jinyu, E-mail: jinyu.wen@hust.edu.cn [State Key Lab of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No. 1037, Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430074 (China); Cheng, Shijie; Tang, Yuejin; Cheng, Zhuo [State Key Lab of Advanced Electromagnetic Engineering and Technology, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, No. 1037, Luoyu Road, Wuhan 430074 (China)

2013-01-15

Highlights: ► Probabilistic study of power system with wind farm and SMES is proposed. ► Quantitative relationship between system stability and SMES capacity is given. ► System stability increases with the capacity of the SMES. ► System stability decreases with the penetration of wind power. ► Together with the cost function, the coil size is optimized. -- Abstract: This paper presents a stochastic-based approach to evaluate the probabilistic transient stability index of the power system incorporating the wind farm and the SMES. Uncertain factors include both sequence of disturbance in power grid and stochastic generation of the wind farm. The spectrums of disturbance in the grid as the fault type, the fault location, the fault clearing time and the automatic reclosing process with their probabilities of occurrence are used to calculate the probability indices, while the wind speed statistics and parameters of the wind generator are used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate samples for the studies. With the proposed method, system stability is ”measured”. Quantitative relationship of penetration level, SMES coil size and system stability is established. Considering the stability versus coil size to be the production curve, together with the cost function, the coil size is optimized economically.

Probabilistic assessment of power system transient stability incorporating SMES

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang, Jiakun; Yao, Wei; Wen, Jinyu; Cheng, Shijie; Tang, Yuejin; Cheng, Zhuo

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Probabilistic study of power system with wind farm and SMES is proposed. ► Quantitative relationship between system stability and SMES capacity is given. ► System stability increases with the capacity of the SMES. ► System stability decreases with the penetration of wind power. ► Together with the cost function, the coil size is optimized. -- Abstract: This paper presents a stochastic-based approach to evaluate the probabilistic transient stability index of the power system incorporating the wind farm and the SMES. Uncertain factors include both sequence of disturbance in power grid and stochastic generation of the wind farm. The spectrums of disturbance in the grid as the fault type, the fault location, the fault clearing time and the automatic reclosing process with their probabilities of occurrence are used to calculate the probability indices, while the wind speed statistics and parameters of the wind generator are used in a Monte Carlo simulation to generate samples for the studies. With the proposed method, system stability is ”measured”. Quantitative relationship of penetration level, SMES coil size and system stability is established. Considering the stability versus coil size to be the production curve, together with the cost function, the coil size is optimized economically

Complementary assessment of the safety of French nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Camarcat, N.; Pouget-Abadie, X.

2011-01-01

As an immediate consequence of the Fukushima accident the French nuclear safety Authority (ASN) asked EDF to perform a complementary safety assessment for each nuclear power plant dealing with 3 points: 1) the consequences of exceptional natural disasters, 2) the consequences of total loss of electrical power, and 3) the management of emergency situations. The safety margin has to be assessed considering 3 main points: first a review of the conformity to the initial safety requirements, secondly the resistance to events overdoing what the facility was designed to stand for, and the feasibility of any modification susceptible to improve the safety of the facility. This article details the specifications of such assessment, the methodology followed by EDF, the task organization and the time schedule. (A.C.)

Evaluation and assessment of nuclear power plant seismic methodology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bernreuter, D.; Tokarz, F.; Wight, L.; Smith, P.; Wells, J.; Barlow, R.

1977-01-01

The major emphasis of this study is to develop a methodology that can be used to assess the current methods used for assuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants. The proposed methodology makes use of system-analysis techniques and Monte Carlo schemes. Also, in this study, we evaluate previous assessments of the current seismic-design methodology

Evaluation and assessment of nuclear power plant seismic methodology

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bernreuter, D.; Tokarz, F.; Wight, L.; Smith, P.; Wells, J.; Barlow, R.

1977-03-01

The major emphasis of this study is to develop a methodology that can be used to assess the current methods used for assuring the seismic safety of nuclear power plants. The proposed methodology makes use of system-analysis techniques and Monte Carlo schemes. Also, in this study, we evaluate previous assessments of the current seismic-design methodology.

On-line Dynamic Security Assessment in Power Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Weckesser, Johannes Tilman Gabriel

and solar radiation. Moreover, ongoing research suggests that demand response will be introduced to maintain power balance between generation and consumption at all times. Due to these changes the operating point of the power system will be less predictable and today’s stability and security assessment...... for early prediction of critical voltage sags is described. The method’s performance is compared to other prediction approaches. The results show that the proposed method succeeds in early, accurately and consistently predicting critically low voltage sags. An efficient on-line DSA not only identifies...

Characterization of residual radionuclide contamination within and around commercial nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Robertson, D.E.; Abel, K.H.; Thomas, C.W.; Lepel, E.A.; Evans, J.C.; Thomas, W.V.; Carrick, L.C.; Leale, M.W.

1985-07-01

To provide a statistically valid data base for the residual radionuclide inventories in nuclear power stations, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) was contracted to conduct an extensive sampling and measurements program at a number of nuclear power plants. This paper summarizes the results of the radionuclide characterization studies conducted at seven nuclear power stations from a decommissioning assessment viewpoint

Risk assessment of power systems models, methods, and applications

CERN Document Server

Li, Wenyuan

2014-01-01

Risk Assessment of Power Systems addresses the regulations and functions of risk assessment with regard to its relevance in system planning, maintenance, and asset management. Brimming with practical examples, this edition introduces the latest risk information on renewable resources, the smart grid, voltage stability assessment, and fuzzy risk evaluation. It is a comprehensive reference of a highly pertinent topic for engineers, managers, and upper-level students who seek examples of risk theory applications in the workplace.

Power and environmental assessment: Introduction to the special issue

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cashmore, Matthew; Richardson, Tim

2013-01-01

The significance of politics and power dynamics has long been recognised in environmental assessment (EA) research, but there has not been sustained attention to power, either theoretically or empirically. The aim of this special issue is to encourage the EA community to engage more consistently with the issue of power. The introduction represents a ground-clearing exercise intended to clarify the terms of the debate about power in the EA field, and to contribute to the development of a research agenda. Research trends in the field are outlined, and potential analytic and normative lines of inquiry are identified. The contributions to this special issue represent contrasting conceptual and methodological approaches that navigate the analytical and normative terrain of power dynamics in EA. Together, they demonstrate that power cannot be removed from EA policy or practices, and is a necessary research focus for the development of the field. - Highlights: ► Introduces the themed section on power ► Provides an overview of the papers in the themed section ► Identifies research trends and directions for future research

A Meta-Meta-Analysis: Empirical Review of Statistical Power, Type I Error Rates, Effect Sizes, and Model Selection of Meta-Analyses Published in Psychology

Science.gov (United States)

Cafri, Guy; Kromrey, Jeffrey D.; Brannick, Michael T.

2010-01-01

This article uses meta-analyses published in "Psychological Bulletin" from 1995 to 2005 to describe meta-analyses in psychology, including examination of statistical power, Type I errors resulting from multiple comparisons, and model choice. Retrospective power estimates indicated that univariate categorical and continuous moderators, individual…

Institutionalization of safety re-assessment system for operating nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, H. J.; Cho, J. C.; Min, B. K.; Park, J. S.; Jung, H. D.; Oh, K. M.; Kim, W. K.; Lim, J. H.

1999-01-01

In this study, in-depth reviews of the foreign countries' experiences and practices in applications of the periodic safety review (PSR), backfitting and license renewal systems as well as the current status of nuclear power safety assurance programs and activities in Korea have been performed to investigate the necessity and feasibility of the application of the systems for the domestic operating nuclear power plants and to establish effective strategy and methodology for the institutionalization of a periodic safety re-assessment system appropriate to both the domestic and international nuclear power environments by incorporating the PSR with the backfitting and license renewal systems. For these purposes, the regulatory policy, fundamental principles and detailed requirements for the institutionalization of the safety re-assessment system and the effective measures for active implementation of the backfitting program have been developed and then a comparative study of benefits and shortcomings has been conducted for the three different models of the periodic safety re-assessment system incorporated with either the license renewal or life extension process, which have been considered as practicable ones in the domestic situation. The model chosen in this study as the most appropriate safety re-assessment system is the one that the re-assessments are performed at the interval of ten years throughout the service life of nuclear power plant and the ten-year license renewal or life extension after the expiration of design life can be permitted based on the regulatory review of the re-assessment results and follow-up measures. Finally, this paper has discussed on the details of the requirements, approach and procedures established for the institutionalization of the periodic safety re-assessment system chosen as the most appropriate one for domestic applications

Assessment of a satellite power system and six alternative technologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wolsko, T.; Whitfield, R.; Samsa, M.; Habegger, L.S.; Levine, E.; Tanzman, E.

1981-04-01

The satellite power system is assessed in comparison to six alternative technologies. The alternatives are: central-station terrestrial photovoltaic systems, conventional coal-fired power plants, coal-gasification/combined-cycle power plants, light water reactor power plants, liquid-metal fast-breeder reactors, and fusion. The comparison is made regarding issues of cost and performance, health and safety, environmental effects, resources, socio-economic factors, and insitutional issues. The criteria for selecting the issues and the alternative technologies are given, and the methodology of the comparison is discussed. Brief descriptions of each of the technologies considered are included. (LEW)

Risk Assessment of Power System considering the CPS of Transformers

Science.gov (United States)

Zhou, Long; Peng, Zewu; Liu, Xindong; Li, Canbing; Chen, Can

2018-02-01

This paper constructs a risk assessment framework of power system for device-level information security, analyzes the typical protection configuration of power transformers, and takes transformer gas protection and differential protection as examples to put forward a method that analyzes the cyber security in electric power system, which targets transformer protection parameters. We estimate the risk of power system accounting for the cyber security of transformer through utilizing Monte Carlo method and two indexes, which are the loss of load probability and the expected demand not supplied. The proposed approach is tested with IEEE 9 bus system and IEEE 118 bus system.

Statistical Methods for Assessments in Simulations and Serious Games. Research Report. ETS RR-14-12

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Jianbin; Zapata, Diego; Mavronikolas, Elia

2014-01-01

Simulation or game-based assessments produce outcome data and process data. In this article, some statistical models that can potentially be used to analyze data from simulation or game-based assessments are introduced. Specifically, cognitive diagnostic models that can be used to estimate latent skills from outcome data so as to scale these…

The future of nuclear power in Europe

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurtz, D.

1996-01-01

The current and future prospects of the nuclear power industry in Europe are assessed in this Financial Times Energy Publishing report. Key issues relating to the development of the industry in both Eastern and Western Europe are addressed. Changing governmental and popular attitudes to nuclear power are described and nuclear energy's likely future contribution to Europe's energy needs is discussed. Detailed production and consumption statistics make the document useful reading for those in nuclear generating companies, electric utilities, major power consumers, waste management companies, governments, regulatory bodies, investors and environmental groups amongst others. (UK)

Wind power planning: assessing long-term costs and benefits

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kennedy, Scott

2005-01-01

In the following paper, a new and straightforward technique for estimating the social benefit of large-scale wind power production is presented. The social benefit is based upon wind power's energy and capacity services and the avoidance of environmental damages. The approach uses probabilistic load duration curves to account for the stochastic interaction between wind power availability, electricity demand, and conventional generator dispatch. The model is applied to potential offshore wind power development to the south of Long Island, NY. If natural gas combined cycle and integrated gasifier combined cycle (IGCC) are the alternative generation sources, wind power exhibits a negative social benefit due to its high capacity cost and the relatively low emissions of these advanced fossil-fuel technologies. Environmental benefits increase significantly if charges for CO 2 emissions are included. Results also reveal a diminishing social benefit as wind power penetration increases. The dependence of wind power benefits on CO 2 charges, and capital costs for wind turbines and IGCC plant is also discussed. The methodology is intended for use by energy planners in assessing the social benefit of future investments in wind power

Management self-assessment in construction phase of nuclear power station

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shao Bixiu

2004-01-01

Management self-assessment is one of the quality management methods to achieve the organization's continuous improvement. Through the investigation of the methods, the author hopes to give guideline to the management at all levels involved in the construction of nuclear power station in the implementation of management self-assessment, and also to make the management self-assessment more normalized, systematical and effective

Business Statistics and Management Science Online: Teaching Strategies and Assessment of Student Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Sebastianelli, Rose; Tamimi, Nabil

2011-01-01

Given the expected rise in the number of online business degrees, issues regarding quality and assessment in online courses will become increasingly important. The authors focus on the suitability of online delivery for quantitative business courses, specifically business statistics and management science. They use multiple approaches to assess…

Statistical approaches to assessing single and multiple outcome measures in dry eye therapy and diagnosis.

Science.gov (United States)

Tomlinson, Alan; Hair, Mario; McFadyen, Angus

2013-10-01

Dry eye is a multifactorial disease which would require a broad spectrum of test measures in the monitoring of its treatment and diagnosis. However, studies have typically reported improvements in individual measures with treatment. Alternative approaches involve multiple, combined outcomes being assessed by different statistical analyses. In order to assess the effect of various statistical approaches to the use of single and combined test measures in dry eye, this review reanalyzed measures from two previous studies (osmolarity, evaporation, tear turnover rate, and lipid film quality). These analyses assessed the measures as single variables within groups, pre- and post-intervention with a lubricant supplement, by creating combinations of these variables and by validating these combinations with the combined sample of data from all groups of dry eye subjects. The effectiveness of single measures and combinations in diagnosis of dry eye was also considered. Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Electric power annual, 1991

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1993-01-01

The Electric Power Annual is prepared by the Survey Management Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. The 1991 edition has been enhanced to include statistics on electric utility demand-side management and nonutility supply. ''The US Electric Power Industry at a Glance'' section presents a profile of the electric power industry ownership and performance, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent sections present data on generating capability, including proposed capability additions; net generation; fossil-fuel statistics; electricity sales, revenue, and average revenue per kilowatthour sold; financial statistics; environmental statistics; electric power transactions; demand-side management; and nonutility power producers. In addition, the appendices provide supplemental data on major disturbances and unusual occurrences in US electricity power systems. Each section contains related text and tables and refers the reader to the appropriate publication that contains more detailed data on the subject matter. Monetary values in this publication are expressed in nominal terms

HVDC power transmission technology assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hauth, R.L.; Tatro, P.J.; Railing, B.D. [New England Power Service Co., Westborough, MA (United States); Johnson, B.K.; Stewart, J.R. [Power Technologies, Inc., Schenectady, NY (United States); Fink, J.L.

1997-04-01

The purpose of this study was to develop an assessment of the national utility system`s needs for electric transmission during the period 1995-2020 that could be met by future reduced-cost HVDC systems. The assessment was to include an economic evaluation of HVDC as a means for meeting those needs as well as a comparison with competing technologies such as ac transmission with and without Flexible AC Transmission System (FACTS) controllers. The role of force commutated dc converters was to be assumed where appropriate. The assessment begins by identifying the general needs for transmission in the U.S. in the context of a future deregulated power industry. The possible roles for direct current transmission are then postulated in terms of representative scenarios. A few of the scenarios are illustrated with the help of actual U.S. system examples. non-traditional applications as well as traditional applications such as long lines and asynchronous interconnections are discussed. The classical ``break-even distance`` concept for comparing HVDC and ac lines is used to assess the selected scenarios. The impact of reduced-cost converters is reflected in terms of the break-even distance. This report presents a comprehensive review of the functional benefits of HVDC transmission and updated cost data for both ac and dc system components. It also provides some provocative thoughts on how direct current transmission might be applied to better utilize and expand our nation`s increasingly stressed transmission assets.

An assessment of machine and statistical learning approaches to inferring networks of protein-protein interactions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Browne Fiona

2006-12-01

Full Text Available Protein-protein interactions (PPI play a key role in many biological systems. Over the past few years, an explosion in availability of functional biological data obtained from high-throughput technologies to infer PPI has been observed. However, results obtained from such experiments show high rates of false positives and false negatives predictions as well as systematic predictive bias. Recent research has revealed that several machine and statistical learning methods applied to integrate relatively weak, diverse sources of large-scale functional data may provide improved predictive accuracy and coverage of PPI. In this paper we describe the effects of applying different computational, integrative methods to predict PPI in Saccharomyces cerevisiae. We investigated the predictive ability of combining different sets of relatively strong and weak predictive datasets. We analysed several genomic datasets ranging from mRNA co-expression to marginal essentiality. Moreover, we expanded an existing multi-source dataset from S. cerevisiae by constructing a new set of putative interactions extracted from Gene Ontology (GO- driven annotations in the Saccharomyces Genome Database. Different classification techniques: Simple Naive Bayesian (SNB, Multilayer Perceptron (MLP and K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN were evaluated. Relatively simple classification methods (i.e. less computing intensive and mathematically complex, such as SNB, have been proven to be proficient at predicting PPI. SNB produced the “highest” predictive quality obtaining an area under Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC curve (AUC value of 0.99. The lowest AUC value of 0.90 was obtained by the KNN classifier. This assessment also demonstrates the strong predictive power of GO-driven models, which offered predictive performance above 0.90 using the different machine learning and statistical techniques. As the predictive power of single-source datasets became weaker MLP and SNB performed

Power probability density function control and performance assessment of a nuclear research reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abharian, Amir Esmaeili; Fadaei, Amir Hosein

2014-01-01

Highlights: • In this paper, the performance assessment of static PDF control system is discussed. • The reactor PDF model is set up based on the B-spline functions. • Acquaints of Nu, and Th-h. equations solve concurrently by reformed Hansen’s method. • A principle of performance assessment is put forward for the PDF of the NR control. - Abstract: One of the main issues in controlling a system is to keep track of the conditions of the system function. The performance condition of the system should be inspected continuously, to keep the system in reliable working condition. In this study, the nuclear reactor is considered as a complicated system and a principle of performance assessment is used for analyzing the performance of the power probability density function (PDF) of the nuclear research reactor control. First, the model of the power PDF is set up, then the controller is designed to make the power PDF for tracing the given shape, that make the reactor to be a closed-loop system. The operating data of the closed-loop reactor are used to assess the control performance with the performance assessment criteria. The modeling, controller design and the performance assessment of the power PDF are all applied to the control of Tehran Research Reactor (TRR) power in a nuclear process. In this paper, the performance assessment of the static PDF control system is discussed, the efficacy and efficiency of the proposed method are investigated, and finally its reliability is proven

Wind energy statistics 2012; Vindkraftsstatistik 2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2013-04-15

The publication 'Wind Energy Statistics' is an annual publication. Since 2010, the reported statistics of installed power, number of plants and regional distribution, even semi-annually, and in tabular form on the Agency's website. The publication is produced in a new way this year, which will result in some data differ from previous publications. Due to the certificate system there is basically full statistics on wind energy in this publication which are presented in different styles. Here we present the regional distribution, ie. how the number of turbines and installed capacity is allocated to counties and municipalities. The electricity produced divided by county, where for reasons of confidentiality possible, are also reported. The wind power is becoming increasingly important in the Swedish energy system which provides an increased demand for statistics and other divisions than that presented in the official statistics. Therefore, this publication, which are not official statistics, has been developed.

Cyber security assessment of a power plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nai Fovino, Igor; Masera, Marcelo; Stefanini, Alberto [Joint Research Centre, Institute for the Protection and Security of the Citizen, Ispra (Italy); Guidi, Luca [Enel Ingegneria e Innovazione, Pisa (Italy)

2011-02-15

Critical infrastructures and systems are today exposed not only to traditional safety and availability problems, but also to new kinds of security threats. These are mainly due to the large number of new vulnerabilities and architectural weaknesses introduced by the extensive use of information and communication technologies (ICT) into such complex systems. In this paper we present the outcomes of an exhaustive ICT security assessment, targeting an operational power plant, which consisted also of the simulation of potential cyber attacks. The assessment shows that the plant is considerably vulnerable to malicious attacks. This situation cannot be ignored, because the potential outcomes of an induced plant malfunction can be severe. (author)

Safety assessment and verification for nuclear power plants. Safety guide

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2001-01-01

This publication supports the Safety Requirements on the Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design. This Safety Guide was prepared on the basis of a systematic review of all the relevant publications including the Safety Fundamentals, Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design, current and ongoing revisions of other Safety Guides, INSAG reports and other publications that have addressed the safety of nuclear power plants. This Safety Guide also provides guidance for Contracting Parties to the Convention on Nuclear Safety in meeting their obligations under Article 14 on Assessment and Verification of Safety. The Safety Requirements publication entitled Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design states that a comprehensive safety assessment and an independent verification of the safety assessment shall be carried out before the design is submitted to the regulatory body. This publication provides guidance on how this requirement should be met. This Safety Guide provides recommendations to designers for carrying out a safety assessment during the initial design process and design modifications, as well as to the operating organization in carrying out independent verification of the safety assessment of new nuclear power plants with a new or already existing design. The recommendations for performing a safety assessment are suitable also as guidance for the safety review of an existing plant. The objective of reviewing existing plants against current standards and practices is to determine whether there are any deviations which would have an impact on plant safety. The methods and the recommendations of this Safety Guide can also be used by regulatory bodies for the conduct of the regulatory review and assessment. Although most recommendations of this Safety Guide are general and applicable to all types of nuclear reactors, some specific recommendations and examples apply mostly to water cooled reactors. Terms such as 'safety assessment', 'safety analysis' and 'independent

Distributed power generation, a market assessment; Marktaspekte der verteilten Energieerzeugung

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Weller, T.

2001-03-01

The article assesses in the light of current energy policy the development of distributed power generation in the future, and resulting impacts on the structure the deregulated power industry in Germany. The author defines the essential characteristics of distributed power generation as opposed to centralized power generation, explains the various existing and emerging power generation technologies, and discusses market penetration scenarios and marketing opportunities in the context of technological developments, environmental and energy efficiency aspects, and consumer attitudes. (orig./CB) [German] Der Artikel bietet wichtige Definitionen fuer eine zielfuehrende Diskussion ueber das gesamte Gebiet der verteilten und dezentralen Energieerzeugung. Er versucht, teilweise emotional besetzte Themen auf sachlich begruendbare Grundannahmen zurueckzufuehren und zieht erste Folgerungen fuer das Zusammenwirken von erneuerbaren Energien und verteilter Energieerzeugung. (orig./CB)

Improved techniques for predicting spacecraft power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chmielewski, A.B.

1987-01-01

Radioisotope Thermoelectric Generators (RTGs) are going to supply power for the NASA Galileo and Ulysses spacecraft now scheduled to be launched in 1989 and 1990. The duration of the Galileo mission is expected to be over 8 years. This brings the total RTG lifetime to 13 years. In 13 years, the RTG power drops more than 20 percent leaving a very small power margin over what is consumed by the spacecraft. Thus it is very important to accurately predict the RTG performance and be able to assess the magnitude of errors involved. The paper lists all the error sources involved in the RTG power predictions and describes a statistical method for calculating the tolerance

Overview of environmental assessment for China nuclear power industry and coal-fired power industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Shaodong; Pan Ziqiang; Zhang Yongxing

1994-01-01

A quantitative environmental assessment method and the corresponding computer code are introduced. By the consideration of all fuel cycle steps, it given that the public health risk of China nuclear power industry is 5.2 x 10 -1 man/(GW·a) the public health risk is 2.5 man/(GW·a), and the total health risk is 3.0 man/(GW·a). After the health risk calculation for coal mining, transport, burning up and ash disposal, it gives that the public health risk of China coal-fired power industry is 3.6 man/(GW·a), the occupational health risk is 50 man/(GW·a), and the total is 54 man/(GW·). Accordingly, the conclusion that China nuclear power industry is one with high safety and cleanness is derived at the end

Assessing the Army Power and Energy Efforts for the Warfighter

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-01

term. Details are in Appendix B. The report places energy challenges in three categories: greatest use, greatest difficulty, and greatest impact ...Power and energy testing Silicon carbide Two new energy facilities New types of solar photovoltaic systems Smaller, lighter cogeneration and...Assessing the Army Power and Energy Efforts for the Warfighter John W. Lyons, Richard Chait, and James J. Valdes

Assessment of defence in depth for nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2005-01-01

Defence in depth is a comprehensive approach to safety that has been developed by nuclear power experts to ensure with high confidence that the public and the environment are protected from any hazards posed by the use of nuclear power for the generation of electricity. The concepts of defence in depth and safety culture have served the nuclear power industry well as a basic philosophy for the safe design and operation of nuclear power plants. Properly applied, defence in depth ensures that no single human error or equipment failure at one level of defence, nor even a combination of failures at more than one level of defence, propagates to jeopardize defence in depth at the subsequent level or leads to harm to the public or the environment. The importance of the concept of defence in depth is underlined in IAEA Safety Standards, in particular in the requirements set forth in the Safety Standards: Safety of Nuclear Power Plants: Design (NS-R-1) and Safety Assessment and Verification for Nuclear Power Plants (NS-G-1.2). A specific report, Defence in Depth in Nuclear Safety (INSAG-10), describes the objectives, strategy, implementation and future development in the area of defence in depth in nuclear and radiation safety. In the report Basic Safety Principles for Nuclear Power Plants (INSAG-12), defence in depth is recognized as one of the fundamental safety principles that underlie the safety of nuclear power plants. In consonance with those high level publications, this Safety Report provides more specific technical information on the implementation of this concept in the siting, design, construction and operation of nuclear power plants. It describes a method for comprehensive and balanced review of the provisions required for implementing defence in depth in existing plants. This publication is intended to provide guidance primarily for the self-assessment by plant operators of the comprehensiveness and quality of defence in depth provisions. It can be used

MIDAS: Regionally linear multivariate discriminative statistical mapping.

Science.gov (United States)

Varol, Erdem; Sotiras, Aristeidis; Davatzikos, Christos

2018-07-01

Statistical parametric maps formed via voxel-wise mass-univariate tests, such as the general linear model, are commonly used to test hypotheses about regionally specific effects in neuroimaging cross-sectional studies where each subject is represented by a single image. Despite being informative, these techniques remain limited as they ignore multivariate relationships in the data. Most importantly, the commonly employed local Gaussian smoothing, which is important for accounting for registration errors and making the data follow Gaussian distributions, is usually chosen in an ad hoc fashion. Thus, it is often suboptimal for the task of detecting group differences and correlations with non-imaging variables. Information mapping techniques, such as searchlight, which use pattern classifiers to exploit multivariate information and obtain more powerful statistical maps, have become increasingly popular in recent years. However, existing methods may lead to important interpretation errors in practice (i.e., misidentifying a cluster as informative, or failing to detect truly informative voxels), while often being computationally expensive. To address these issues, we introduce a novel efficient multivariate statistical framework for cross-sectional studies, termed MIDAS, seeking highly sensitive and specific voxel-wise brain maps, while leveraging the power of regional discriminant analysis. In MIDAS, locally linear discriminative learning is applied to estimate the pattern that best discriminates between two groups, or predicts a variable of interest. This pattern is equivalent to local filtering by an optimal kernel whose coefficients are the weights of the linear discriminant. By composing information from all neighborhoods that contain a given voxel, MIDAS produces a statistic that collectively reflects the contribution of the voxel to the regional classifiers as well as the discriminative power of the classifiers. Critically, MIDAS efficiently assesses the

The statistical analysis of anisotropies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Webster, A.

1977-01-01

One of the many uses to which a radio survey may be put is an analysis of the distribution of the radio sources on the celestial sphere to find out whether they are bunched into clusters or lie in preferred regions of space. There are many methods of testing for clustering in point processes and since they are not all equally good this contribution is presented as a brief guide to what seems to be the best of them. The radio sources certainly do not show very strong clusering and may well be entirely unclustered so if a statistical method is to be useful it must be both powerful and flexible. A statistic is powerful in this context if it can efficiently distinguish a weakly clustered distribution of sources from an unclustered one, and it is flexible if it can be applied in a way which avoids mistaking defects in the survey for true peculiarities in the distribution of sources. The paper divides clustering statistics into two classes: number density statistics and log N/log S statistics. (Auth.)

Automatic Assessment of Pathological Voice Quality Using Higher-Order Statistics in the LPC Residual Domain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JiYeoun Lee

2009-01-01

Full Text Available A preprocessing scheme based on linear prediction coefficient (LPC residual is applied to higher-order statistics (HOSs for automatic assessment of an overall pathological voice quality. The normalized skewness and kurtosis are estimated from the LPC residual and show statistically meaningful distributions to characterize the pathological voice quality. 83 voice samples of the sustained vowel /a/ phonation are used in this study and are independently assessed by a speech and language therapist (SALT according to the grade of the severity of dysphonia of GRBAS scale. These are used to train and test classification and regression tree (CART. The best result is obtained using an optima l decision tree implemented by a combination of the normalized skewness and kurtosis, with an accuracy of 92.9%. It is concluded that the method can be used as an assessment tool, providing a valuable aid to the SALT during clinical evaluation of an overall pathological voice quality.

Preliminary environmental assessment for the Satellite Power System (SPS). Revision 1. Volume 2. Detailed assessment

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1980-01-01

The Department of Energy (DOE) is considering several options for generating electrical power to meet future energy needs. The satellite power system (SPS), one of these options, would collect solar energy through a system of satellites in space and transfer this energy to earth. A reference system has been described that would convert the energy to microwaves and transmit the microwave energy via directive antennas to large receiving/rectifying antennas (rectennas) located on the earth. At the rectennas, the microwave energy would be converted into electricity. The potential environmental impacts of constructing and operating the satellite power system are being assessed as a part of the Department of Energy's SPS Concept Development and Evaluation Program. This report is Revision I of the Preliminary Environmental Assessment for the Satellite Power System published in October 1978. It refines and extends the 1978 assessment and provides a basis for a 1980 revision that will guide and support DOE recommendations regarding future SPS development. This is Volume 2 of two volumes. It contains the technical detail suitable for peer review and integrates information appearing in documents referenced herein. The key environmental issues associated with the SPS concern human health and safety, ecosystems, climate, and electromagnetic systems interactions. In order to address these issues in an organized manner, five tasks are reported: (I) microwave-radiation health and ecological effects; (II) nonmicrowave health and ecological effectss; (III) atmospheric effects; (IV) effects on communication systems due to ionospheric disturbance; and (V) electromagnetic compatibility. (WHK)

Efforts to utilize risk assessment at nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Narumiya, Yoshiyuki

2015-01-01

Risk assessment means the use of the outputs that have been obtained through risk identification and risk analysis (risk information), followed by the determination of the response policy by comparing these outputs with the risk of judgement standards. This paper discusses the use of risk information with multifaceted nature and its significance, and the challenges to the further penetration of these items. As the lessons and risk assessment learnt from the past accidents, this paper takes up the cases of the severe accidents of Three Mile Island, Chernobyl, and Fukushima Daiichi power stations, and discusses their causes and expansion factors. In particular, at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, important lessons were shortage in measures against the superimposition of earthquake and tsunami, and the insufficient use of risk assessment. This paper classified risk assessment from the viewpoint of risk information, and showed the contents and index for each item of risk reduction trends, risk increase trends, and measures according to the importance of risk. As the benefits of activities due to risk assessment, this paper referred to the application cases of the probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) of IAEA, and summarized the application activities of 10 items of risk indexes by classifying them to safety benefits and operational benefits. For example, in the item of flexible Allowed Outage Time (AOT), the avoidance of plant shutdown and the flexibility improvement of maintenance scheduling at a plant are corresponding to the above-mentioned benefits, respectively. (A.O.)

Employment of kernel methods on wind turbine power performance assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Skrimpas, Georgios Alexandros; Sweeney, Christian Walsted; Marhadi, Kun S.

2015-01-01

A power performance assessment technique is developed for the detection of power production discrepancies in wind turbines. The method employs a widely used nonparametric pattern recognition technique, the kernel methods. The evaluation is based on the trending of an extracted feature from...... the kernel matrix, called similarity index, which is introduced by the authors for the first time. The operation of the turbine and consequently the computation of the similarity indexes is classified into five power bins offering better resolution and thus more consistent root cause analysis. The accurate...

Sustainability indicators for the assessment of nuclear power

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stamford, Laurence; Azapagic, Adisa

2011-01-01

Electricity supplies an increasing share of the world's total energy demand and that contribution is set to increase. At the same time, there is increasing socio-political will to mitigate impacts of climate change as well as to improve energy security. This, in combination with the desire to ensure social and economic prosperity, creates a pressing need to consider the sustainability implications of future electricity generation. However, approaches to sustainability assessment differ greatly in their scope and methodology as currently there is no standardised approach. With this in mind, this paper reviews sustainability indicators that have previously been used to assess energy options and proposes a new sustainability assessment methodology based on a life cycle approach. In total, 43 indicators are proposed, addressing the techno-economic, environmental and social sustainability issues associated with energy systems. The framework has been developed primarily to address concerns associated with nuclear power in the UK, but is applicable to other energy technologies as well as to other countries. -- Highlights: → New framework for life cycle sustainability assessment of nuclear power developed. → The framework comprises 43 indicators addressing techno-economic, environmental and social sustainability. → Completely new indicators developed to address different sustainability issues, including nuclear proliferation, energy supply diversity and intergenerational equity. → The framework enables sustainability comparisons of nuclear and other electricity technologies. → Indicators can be used by various stakeholders, including industry, policy makers and NGOs to help identify more sustainable electricity options.

Improved power performance assessment methods

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frandsen, S; Antoniou, I; Dahlberg, J A [and others

1999-03-01

The uncertainty of presently-used methods for retrospective assessment of the productive capacity of wind farms is unacceptably large. The possibilities of improving the accuracy have been investigated and are reported. A method is presented that includes an extended power curve and site calibration. In addition, blockage effects with respect to reference wind speed measurements are analysed. It is found that significant accuracy improvements are possible by the introduction of more input variables such as turbulence and wind shear, in addition to mean wind speed and air density. Also, the testing of several or all machines in the wind farm - instead of only one or two - may provide a better estimate of the average performance. (au)

The significance of structural power in Strategic Environmental Assessment

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, Anne Merrild; Kørnøv, Lone; Cashmore, Matthew Asa

2013-01-01

, that actors influence both outcome and frames for strategic decision making and attention needs to be on not only the formal interactions between SEA process and strategic decision-making process but also on informal interaction and communication between actors. The informal structures shows crucial...... to the outcome of the decision-making process. The article is meant as a supplement to the understanding of power dynamics influence in IA processes emphasising the capacity of agents to mobilise and create change. Despite epistemological challenges of using ST theory as an approach to power analysis, this meta......This article presents a study of how power dynamics enables and constrains the influence of actors upon decision-making and Strategic Environmental Assessment (SEA). Based on Anthony Giddens structuration theory (ST), a model for studying power dynamics in strategic decision-making processes...

Safety/security interface assessments at commercial nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byers, K.R.; Brown, P.J.; Norderhaug, L.R.

1985-01-01

The findings of the Haynes Task Force Committee (NUREG-0992) are used as the basis for defining safety/security assessment team activities at commercial nuclear power plants in NRC Region V. A safety/security interface assessment outline and the approach used for making the assessments are presented along with the composition of team members. As a result of observing simulated plant emergency conditions during scheduled emergency preparedness exercises, examining security and operational response procedures, and interviewing plant personnel, the team has identified instances where safety/security conflicts can occur

Safety/security interface assessments at commercial nuclear power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Byers, K.R.; Brown, P.J.; Norderhaug, L.R.

1985-07-01

The findings of the Haynes Task Force Committee (NUREG-0992) are used as the basis for defining safety/security assessment team activities at commercial nuclear power plants in NRC Region V. A safety/security interface assessment outline and the approach used for making the assessments are presented along with the composition of team members. As a result of observing simulated plant emergency conditions during scheduled emergency preparedness exercises, examining security and operational response procedures, and interviewing plant personnel, the team has identified instances where safety/security conflicts can occur. 2 refs

Sustainability assessment of nuclear power: Discourse analysis of IAEA and IPCC frameworks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Verbruggen, Aviel; Laes, Erik

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. • Discourse analysis reveals how the meaning of sustainability is constructed in SAs. • Discourse analysis is applied on the SAs of nuclear power of IAEA and IPCC. • For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices’. • The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC Fifth Assessment Report. - Abstract: Sustainability assessments (SAs) are methodologically precarious. Value-based judgments inevitably play a role in setting the scope of the SA, selecting assessment criteria and indicators, collecting adequate data, and developing and using models of considered systems. Discourse analysis can reveal how the meaning and operationalization of sustainability is constructed in and through SAs. Our discourse-analytical approach investigates how sustainability is channeled from ‘manifest image’ (broad but shallow), to ‘vision’, to ‘policy targets’ (specific and practical). This approach is applied on the SA frameworks used by IAEA and IPCC to assess the sustainability of the nuclear power option. The essentially problematic conclusion is that both SA frameworks are constructed in order to obtain answers that do not conflict with prior commitments adopted by the two institutes. For IAEA ‘sustainable’ equals ‘complying with best international practices and standards’. IPCC wrestles with its mission as a provider of “policy-relevant and yet policy-neutral, never policy-prescriptive” knowledge to decision-makers. IPCC avoids the assessment of different visions on the role of nuclear power in a low-carbon energy future, and skips most literature critical of nuclear power. The IAEA framework largely inspires IPCC AR5

Electric power annual 1992

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-01-06

The Electric Power Annual presents a summary of electric utility statistics at national, regional and State levels. The objective of the publication is to provide industry decisionmakers, government policymakers, analysts and the general public with historical data that may be used in understanding US electricity markets. The Electric Power Annual is prepared by the Survey Management Division; Office of Coal, Nuclear, Electric and Alternate Fuels; Energy Information Administration (EIA); US Department of Energy. ``The US Electric Power Industry at a Glance`` section presents a profile of the electric power industry ownership and performance, and a review of key statistics for the year. Subsequent sections present data on generating capability, including proposed capability additions; net generation; fossil-fuel statistics; retail sales; revenue; financial statistics; environmental statistics; electric power transactions; demand-side management; and nonutility power producers. In addition, the appendices provide supplemental data on major disturbances and unusual occurrences in US electricity power systems. Each section contains related text and tables and refers the reader to the appropriate publication that contains more detailed data on the subject matter. Monetary values in this publication are expressed in nominal terms.

Implications of sustainability assessment for electricity system design: The case of the Ontario Power Authority's integrated power system plan

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winfield, Mark; Gibson, Robert B.; Markvart, Tanya; Gaudreau, Kyrke; Taylor, Jennifer

2010-01-01

This paper explores the results and implications of an illustrative application of a sustainability assessment framework in the design and evaluation of a major integrated power system plan. The paper examines the integrated power system plan developed by the Ontario Power Authority in 2007. The basic framework rests on a generic set of evaluation criteria reflecting basic requirements for progress towards sustainability that was adopted, reinterpreted and applied by the Authority in support of its proposed plan. In response to evident deficiencies in the Authority's work, the authors and colleagues undertook a re-examination using a more fully elaborated sustainability assessment framework, specified for application to power system planning. The results point to a plan and plan components substantially different from those proposed by the Authority. More generally, the results highlight three advantages of applying such a sustainability assessment framework: comprehensive coverage of key requirements for progress towards sustainability while ensuring careful attention to the context and concerns of the sector; emphasis on identifying plan options that avoid major trade-offs among the sustainability criteria and recognition of interactions among the social, ecological, economic and technological realms favouring options that offer multiple, mutually reinforcing and lasting benefits.

Assessment of Lower Limb Muscle Strength and Power Using Hand-Held and Fixed Dynamometry: A Reliability and Validity Study

Science.gov (United States)

Perraton, Luke G.; Bower, Kelly J.; Adair, Brooke; Pua, Yong-Hao; Williams, Gavin P.; McGaw, Rebekah

2015-01-01

Introduction Hand-held dynamometry (HHD) has never previously been used to examine isometric muscle power. Rate of force development (RFD) is often used for muscle power assessment, however no consensus currently exists on the most appropriate method of calculation. The aim of this study was to examine the reliability of different algorithms for RFD calculation and to examine the intra-rater, inter-rater, and inter-device reliability of HHD as well as the concurrent validity of HHD for the assessment of isometric lower limb muscle strength and power. Methods 30 healthy young adults (age: 23±5yrs, male: 15) were assessed on two sessions. Isometric muscle strength and power were measured using peak force and RFD respectively using two HHDs (Lafayette Model-01165 and Hoggan microFET2) and a criterion-reference KinCom dynamometer. Statistical analysis of reliability and validity comprised intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC), Pearson correlations, concordance correlations, standard error of measurement, and minimal detectable change. Results Comparison of RFD methods revealed that a peak 200ms moving window algorithm provided optimal reliability results. Intra-rater, inter-rater, and inter-device reliability analysis of peak force and RFD revealed mostly good to excellent reliability (coefficients ≥ 0.70) for all muscle groups. Concurrent validity analysis showed moderate to excellent relationships between HHD and fixed dynamometry for the hip and knee (ICCs ≥ 0.70) for both peak force and RFD, with mostly poor to good results shown for the ankle muscles (ICCs = 0.31–0.79). Conclusions Hand-held dynamometry has good to excellent reliability and validity for most measures of isometric lower limb strength and power in a healthy population, particularly for proximal muscle groups. To aid implementation we have created freely available software to extract these variables from data stored on the Lafayette device. Future research should examine the reliability

Probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wall, J B

1980-09-01

A specific program is recommended to utilize more effectively probabilistic risk assessment in nuclear power plant regulation. It is based upon the engineering insights from the Reactor Safety Study (WASH-1400) and some follow-on risk assessment research by USNRC. The Three Mile Island accident is briefly discussed from a risk viewpoint to illustrate a weakness in current practice. The development of a probabilistic safety goal is recommended with some suggestions on underlying principles. Some ongoing work on risk perception and the draft probabilistic safety goal being reviewed on Canada is described. Some suggestions are offered on further risk assessment research. Finally, some recent U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission actions are described.

IAEA Issues Report on Mission to Review Japan's Nuclear Power Plant Safety Assessment Process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2012-01-01

Full text: A team of international nuclear safety experts has delivered its report on a mission it conducted from 21-31 January 2012 to review Japan's process for assessing nuclear safety at the nation's nuclear power plants. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials delivered the IAEA Mission Report to Japanese officials yesterday and made it publicly available today. Following the 11 March 2011 accident at TEPCO's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station, Japan's Nuclear and Industrial Safety Agency (NISA) announced the development of a revised safety assessment process for the nation's nuclear power reactors. At the request of the Government of Japan, the IAEA organized a team of five IAEA and three international nuclear safety experts and visited Japan to review NISA's approach to the Comprehensive Assessments for the Safety of Existing Power Reactor Facilities and how NISA examines the results submitted by nuclear operators. A Preliminary Summary Report was issued on 31 January. 'The mission report provides additional information regarding the team's recommendations and overall finding that NISA's instructions to power plants and its review process for the Comprehensive Safety Assessments are generally consistent with IAEA Safety Standards', said team leader James Lyons, Director of the IAEA's Nuclear Installation Safety Division. National safety assessments and their peer review by the IAEA are a key component of the IAEA Action Plan on Nuclear Safety, which was approved by the Agency's Member States following last year's nuclear accident at Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The IAEA safety review mission held meetings in Tokyo with officials from NISA, the Japanese Nuclear Energy Safety Organization (JNES), and the Kansai Electric Power Company (KEPCO), and the team visited the Ohi Nuclear Power Station to see an example of how Japan's Comprehensive Safety Assessment is being implemented by nuclear operators. In its report delivered today

AN ASSESSMENT OF FLYWHEEL HIGH POWER ENERGY STORAGE TECHNOLOGY FOR HYBRID VEHICLES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, James Gerald [ORNL

2012-02-01

An assessment has been conducted for the DOE Vehicle Technologies Program to determine the state of the art of advanced flywheel high power energy storage systems to meet hybrid vehicle needs for high power energy storage and energy/power management. Flywheel systems can be implemented with either an electrical or a mechanical powertrain. The assessment elaborates upon flywheel rotor design issues of stress, materials and aspect ratio. Twelve organizations that produce flywheel systems submitted specifications for flywheel energy storage systems to meet minimum energy and power requirements for both light-duty and heavy-duty hybrid applications of interest to DOE. The most extensive experience operating flywheel high power energy storage systems in heavy-duty and light-duty hybrid vehicles is in Europe. Recent advances in Europe in a number of vehicle racing venues and also in road car advanced evaluations are discussed. As a frame of reference, nominal weight and specific power for non-energy storage components of Toyota hybrid electric vehicles are summarized. The most effective utilization of flywheels is in providing high power while providing just enough energy storage to accomplish the power assist mission effectively. Flywheels are shown to meet or exceed the USABC power related goals (discharge power, regenerative power, specific power, power density, weight and volume) for HEV and EV batteries and ultracapacitors. The greatest technical challenge facing the developer of vehicular flywheel systems remains the issue of safety and containment. Flywheel safety issues must be addressed during the design and testing phases to ensure that production flywheel systems can be operated with adequately low risk.

State of the art on power performance assessments for wind energy conversion systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Maribo Pedersen, B. [ed.

1997-12-31

It is the intention of this meeting to clarify the status of power performance verification and assessment and identify the future needs in terms of applications, research fields and standardization actions, putting emphasis on the following items: Power performance verification for wind farms; Power performance verification for large wind turbines; Power performance verification for wind turbines operating in complex terrain; Assessment of the available international and national standards; Assessment of developed, applied and verified tools for WECS power performance. This Experts Meeting had gathered 14 participants from 6 different countries. 12 presentations were given and although countries with a sizeable wind program, ie. Italy, UK and Spain were not present, it is felt that the meeting gave a fair impression of the contemporary state of the art world wide. Specific problems concerning accurate definition and measurement of wind speed by cup-anemometers were dealt with. Different sources of errors were analysed and valuable new experimental results were presented. Other instruments for wind-speed measurements than cup-anemometers were discussed as well. (EG)

Application of Devices and Systems Designed for Power Quality Monitoring and Assessment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wiesław Gil

2014-03-01

Full Text Available The paper presents the problems associated with increasing demands on the equipment and systems for power quality assessment (PQ, installed at power substations. Difficulties are signaled due to current lack of standards defining the test methodology of measuring devices. The necessary device properties and the structure of a large system operated in real time and designed to assess the PQ are discussed. The usefulness of multi-channel analyzers featuring the identification and registration of transients is pointed out. The desirability of synchrophasor assessment implementation and device integration by standard PN-EN 61850 with other SAS devices is also justified.

Innovative Modelling Approach of Safety Culture Assessment in Nuclear Power Plant

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, N.

2016-01-01

A culture is commonly defined as the shared set of norms and values that govern appropriate individual behavior. Safety culture is the subset of organizational culture that reflects the general attitude and approaches to safety and risk management. While safety is sometimes narrowly defined in terms of human death and injury, we use a more inclusive definition that also considers mission loss as a safety problem and is thus applicable to nuclear power plants and missions. The recent accident reports and investigations of the nuclear power plant mission failures (i.e., TMI, Chernobyl, and Fukushima) point to safety cultural problems in nuclear power plants. Many assessment approaches have been developed by organizations such as IAEA and INPO based on the assessment of parameters at separate levels — individuals, groups, and organizations.

Thermal power plants and environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1997-01-01

Recent versions of the air quality models which are reviewed and approved from the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) are analysed in favour of their application in simple and complex terrain, different meteorological conditions and modifications in the sources of pollutant emissions. Improvement of the standard methods for analysis of the risks affecting the environment from different energy sources has been carried out. The application of the newly introduced model enabled (lead to performing) risk analysis of the coal power plants compared to other types of energy sources. Detailed investigation of the risk assessment and perception from coal power plants, has been performed and applied to the Macedonian coal power plants. Introducing the concept of 'psychological pollution', a modification of the standard models and programs for risk assessment from various energy sources has been suggested (proposed). The model has been applied to REK Bitola, where statistically relevant differences in relation to the control groups have been obtained. (Original)

A d-statistic for single-case designs that is equivalent to the usual between-groups d-statistic.

Science.gov (United States)

Shadish, William R; Hedges, Larry V; Pustejovsky, James E; Boyajian, Jonathan G; Sullivan, Kristynn J; Andrade, Alma; Barrientos, Jeannette L

2014-01-01

We describe a standardised mean difference statistic (d) for single-case designs that is equivalent to the usual d in between-groups experiments. We show how it can be used to summarise treatment effects over cases within a study, to do power analyses in planning new studies and grant proposals, and to meta-analyse effects across studies of the same question. We discuss limitations of this d-statistic, and possible remedies to them. Even so, this d-statistic is better founded statistically than other effect size measures for single-case design, and unlike many general linear model approaches such as multilevel modelling or generalised additive models, it produces a standardised effect size that can be integrated over studies with different outcome measures. SPSS macros for both effect size computation and power analysis are available.

A statistical assessment of differences and equivalences between genetically modified and reference plant varieties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Amzal Billy

2011-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Safety assessment of genetically modified organisms is currently often performed by comparative evaluation. However, natural variation of plant characteristics between commercial varieties is usually not considered explicitly in the statistical computations underlying the assessment. Results Statistical methods are described for the assessment of the difference between a genetically modified (GM plant variety and a conventional non-GM counterpart, and for the assessment of the equivalence between the GM variety and a group of reference plant varieties which have a history of safe use. It is proposed to present the results of both difference and equivalence testing for all relevant plant characteristics simultaneously in one or a few graphs, as an aid for further interpretation in safety assessment. A procedure is suggested to derive equivalence limits from the observed results for the reference plant varieties using a specific implementation of the linear mixed model. Three different equivalence tests are defined to classify any result in one of four equivalence classes. The performance of the proposed methods is investigated by a simulation study, and the methods are illustrated on compositional data from a field study on maize grain. Conclusions A clear distinction of practical relevance is shown between difference and equivalence testing. The proposed tests are shown to have appropriate performance characteristics by simulation, and the proposed simultaneous graphical representation of results was found to be helpful for the interpretation of results from a practical field trial data set.

Risk Assessment Method of UHV AC/DC Power System under Serious Disasters

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rishang Long

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Based on the theory of risk assessment, the risk assessment method for an ultra-high voltage (UHV AC/DC hybrid power system under severe disaster is studied. Firstly, considering the whole process of cascading failure, a fast failure probability calculation method is proposed, and the whole process risk assessment model is established considering the loss of both fault stage and recovery stage based on Monte Carlo method and BPA software. Secondly, the comprehensive evaluation index system is proposed from the aspects of power system structure, fault state and economic loss, and the quantitative assessment of system risk is carried out by an entropy weight model. Finally, the risk assessment of two UHV planning schemes are carried out and compared, which proves the effectiveness of the research work.

Quantitative assessment of aquatic impacts of power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McKenzie, D.H.; Arnold, E.M.; Skalski, J.R.; Fickeisen, D.H.; Baker, K.S.

1979-08-01

Progress is reported in a continuing study of the design and analysis of aquatic environmental monitoring programs for assessing the impacts of nuclear power plants. Analysis of data from Calvert Cliffs, Pilgrim, and San Onofre nuclear power plants confirmed the generic applicability of the control-treatment pairing design suggested by McKenzie et al. (1977). Substantial progress was made on the simulation model evaluation task. A process notebook was compiled in which each model equation was translated into a standardized notation. Individual model testing and evaluating was started. The Aquatic Generalized Environmental Impact Simulator (AGEIS) was developed and will be tested using data from Lake Keowee, South Carolina. Further work is required to test the various models and perfect AGEIS for impact analyses at actual power plant sites. Efforts on the hydrologic modeling task resulted in a compendium of models commonly applied to nuclear power plants and the application of two well-received hydrodynamic models to data from the Surry Nuclear Power Plant in Virginia. Conclusions from the study of these models indicate that slight inaccuracies of boundary data have little influence on mass conservation and accurate bathymetry data are necessary for conservation of mass through the model calculations. The hydrologic modeling task provides valuable reference information for model users and monitoring program designers.