Arndt, Channing; Benfica, Rui; Maximiano, Nelson;
Rising world prices for fuel and food represent a negative terms-of-trade shock for Mozambique. The impacts of these price rises are analyzed using various approaches. Detailed price data show that the world price increases are being transmitted to domestic prices. Short-run net benefit ratio...... analysis indicates that urban households and households in the southern region are more vulnerable to food price increases. Rural households, particularly in the North and Center, often benefit from being in a net seller position. Longer-term analysis using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of...... Mozambique indicates that the fuel price shock dominates rising food prices from both macroeconomic and poverty perspectives. Again, negative impacts are larger in urban areas. The importance of agricultural production response in general and export response in particular is highlighted. Policy analysis...
Mukherjee , Soumyatanu
In this paper, we try to analyze the possible reasons behind food price hike. The motivation of doing this project is to see the probable reasons, which impact “common people” of India to the utmost extent. We concentrate mainly on the supply side, distribution aspects and the demand side. Checking these aspects we try to see their sensitivity in food prices.
Powell, Lisa M; Bao, Yanjun
This study examines the importance of food prices and restaurant and food store outlet availability for child body mass index (BMI). We use the 1998, 2000 and 2002 waves of the child-mother merged files from the 1979 cohort of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth combined with fruit and vegetable and fast food price data obtained from the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association and outlet density data on fast food and full-service restaurants and supermarkets, grocery stores and convenience stores obtained from Dun & Bradstreet. Using a random effects estimation model, we found that a 10% increase in the price of fruits and vegetables was associated with a 0.7% increase in child BMI. Fast food prices were not found to be statistically significant in the full sample but were weakly negatively associated with BMI among adolescents with an estimated price elasticity of -0.12. The price estimates were robust to whether we controlled for outlet availability based on a per capita or per land area basis; however, the association between food outlets and child BMI differed depending on the definition. The associations of fruit and vegetable and fast food prices with BMI were significantly stronger both economically and statistically among low- versus high-socioeconomic status children. The estimated fruit and vegetable and fast food price elasticities were 0.14 and -0.26, respectively, among low-income children and 0.09 and -0.13, respectively, among children with less educated mothers. PMID:19231301
Haggblade, Steven; Dewina, Reno
Prepared for the Comesa policy seminar on “Variation in staple food prices: Causes, consequence, and policy options”, Maputo, Mozambique, 25-26 January 2010 under the African Agricultural Marketing Project (AAMP)
Ariga, Joshua; Jayne, Thomas S.; Njukia, Stephen
Prepared for the COMESA policy seminar on “Variation in staple food prices: Causes, consequence, and policy options”, Maputo, Mozambique, 25-26 January 2010 under the Comesa-MSU-IFPRI African Agricultural Marketing Project (AAMP)
AREZKI Rabah; Brückner, Markus
We examine the effects that variations in the international food prices have on democracy and intra-state conflict using panel data for over 120 countries during the period 1970-2007. Our main finding is that in Low Income Countries increases in the international food prices lead to a significant deterioration of democratic institutions and a significant increase in the incidence of anti-government demonstrations, riots, and civil conflict. In the High Income Countries variations in the inter...
Discusses a study undertaken by the Nottingham University Consumer Study Group to determine market operation for popular convenience foods in England. Information is presented on distribution of purchases, brand loyalties of respondents to a questionnaire regarding convenience foods, and market fluctuation due to inflation. (Author/DB)
This paper focuses on agro- food chains and agro- food consumer prices in Slovenia considering its European Union (EU) membership. As the Slovenian agro- food markets were distorted prior to the EU accession with some agro- food prices that were greater than comparable EU prices, the empirical results confirm that with the EU membership Slovenian real agro- food consumer prices have largely downward adjusted. Besides policy changes, internalization of retailing and distribution chains by entr...
Full Text Available The paper summarizes key findings of alternative lines of research on the relationship between food and fuel markets, and identifies gaps between two bodies of literature: one that investigates the relationship between food and fuel prices, and another that investigates the impact of the introduction of biofuels on commodity-food prices. The former body of literature suggests that biofuel prices do not affect food-commodity prices, but the latter suggests it does. We try to explain this gap, and then show that although biofuel was an important contributor to the recent food-price inflation of 2001–2008, its effect on food-commodity prices declined after the recession of 2008/09. We also show that the introduction of cross-price elasticity is important when explaining soybean price, but less so when explaining corn prices.
Khundrakpam, J. K.; Das, Dipika
Using a vector error correction model (VECM), the paper examines the relative response of food and manufactured prices to change in interest rate and money supply in India during the period 2001:Q1 to 2010:Q2. It finds that, in the long-run, while money supply leads to rise in the prices of both food and manufactured prices, hike in call rate has a negative effect only on manufactured prices. The impact of money supply is, however, more on food prices than on manufactured prices. There is no ...
Khundrakpam, J. K.; Das, Dipika
Using a vector error correction model (VECM), the paper examines the relative response of food and manufactured prices to change in interest rate and money supply in India during the period 2001:Q1 to 2010:Q2. It finds that, in the long-run, while money supply leads to rise in the prices of both food and manufactured prices, hike in call rate has a negative effect only on manufactured prices. The impact of money supply is, however, more on food prices than on manufactured pr...
Barrett, Christopher B.
The geography of agricultural marketing has important implications for the stochastic distribution of agricultural commodity prices. This paper proposes that objective food price risk differs between rural and urban areas of infrastructure-poor economies characterized by spatially concentrated patterns of foodgrains storage. This difference implies an urban bias having adverse welfare effects for peasants who seasonally switch between net food seller and net food buyer positions. Empirical an...
Brown, M. E.
The agriculture system is under pressure to increase production every year as global population expands and more people move from a diet mostly made up of grains, to one with more meat, dairy and processed foods. Weather shocks and large changes in international commodity prices in the last decade have increased pressure on local food prices. This paper will review several studies that link climate variability as measured with satellite remote sensing to food price dynamics in 36 developing countries where local monthly food price data is available. The focus of the research is to understand how weather and climate, as measured by variations in the growing season using satellite remote sensing, has affected agricultural production, food prices and access to food in agricultural societies. Economies are vulnerable to extreme weather at multiple levels. Subsistence small holders who hold livestock and consume much of the food they produce are vulnerable to food production variability. The broader society, however, is also vulnerable to extreme weather because of the secondary effects on market functioning, resource availability, and large-scale impacts on employment in trading, trucking and wage labor that are caused by weather-related shocks. Food price variability captures many of these broad impacts and can be used to diagnose weather-related vulnerability across multiple sectors. The paper will trace these connections using market-level data and analysis. The context of the analysis is the humanitarian aid community, using the guidance of the USAID Famine Early Warning Systems Network and the United Nation's World Food Program in their response to food security crises. These organizations have worked over the past three decades to provide baseline information on food production through satellite remote sensing data and agricultural yield models, as well as assessments of food access through a food price database. Econometric models and spatial analysis are used
Grossman, Michael; Tekin, Erdal; Wada, Roy
We examine the effect of food prices on clinical measures of obesity, including body mass index (BMI) and percentage body fat (PBF) measures derived from bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and dual energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), among youths ages 12 through 18 in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This is the first study to consider clinically measured levels of body composition rather than BMI to investigate the effects of food prices on obesity outcomes among youths classified by gender and race/ethnicity. Our findings suggest that increases in the real price per calorie of food for home consumption and the real price of fast-food restaurant food lead to improvements in obesity outcomes among youths. We also find that a rise in the real price of fruits and vegetables leads to increased obesity. Finally, our results indicate that measures of PBF derived from BIA and DXA are no less sensitive and in some cases more sensitive to the prices just mentioned than BMI, and serve an important role in demonstrating that rising food prices (except fruit and vegetable prices) are indeed associated with reductions in obesity rather than with reductions in body size proportions alone. PMID:24246131
Luis Catão; Roberto Chang
In recent years, large fluctuations in world food prices have renewed interest in the question of how monetary policy in small open economies should react to imported price shocks. We address this issue in an open economy setting similar to previous ones except that food plays a distinctive role in utility. A key novelty of our model is that the real exchange rate and the terms of trade can move in opposite directions in response to food price shocks. This has several consequences for observa...
Claro, Rafael Moreira; Maia, Emanuella Gomes; Costa, Bruna Vieira de Lima; Diniz, Danielle Pereira
This study aims to describe the prices of food groups consumed in Brazil considering the nature, extent, and purpose of their processing. Data were obtained from the Brazilian Household Budget Survey for 2008-2009. The mean prices of the groups (natural, cooking ingredients, processed, and ultra-processed) and their respective food subgroups were estimated for Brazil according to income, region, and area. Natural products and cooking ingredients showed lower prices per calorie when compared to the other groups, suggesting an economic advantage to preparing meals at home when compared to replacing them with ultra-processed foods. Families with the highest income paid the highest prices for their food, while families in the Northeast and North regions and rural areas paid the lowest. While fresh foods (meat, milk, fruit, and vegetables) tend to cost more than ultra-processed foods, dry grains (like rice and beans) are a more economical alternative for adopting healthy eating practices. PMID:27580234
Shih-Wen Hu; Li-Ju Chen; Vey Wang; Meng-Yi Tai; Lee-Jung Lu; Chiu-Yue Lin
Biomass energy has been regarded as an effective instrument in combatting a high oil price. However, the increased production of biomass energy has raised the demand for agricultural products and led to a global grain deficiency and rising grain prices. This paper discusses the influence of energy policies on the agricultural product price using a macro model that contains the energy demand for agricultural products. The results show that: 1) A rise in the subsidy for agricultural products us...
The price of oil could play a significant role in influencing the expansion of biofuels, but this issue has yet to be fully investigated in the literature. Using a global computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, this study analyzes the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply. The study shows that a 65% increase in oil price in 2020 from the 2009 level would increase the global biofuel penetration to 5.4% in 2020 from 2.4% in 2009. If oil prices rise 150% from their 2009 levels by 2020, the resulting penetration of biofuels would be 9%, which is higher than that would be caused by current mandates and targets introduced in more than forty countries around the world. The study also shows that aggregate agricultural output drops due to an oil price increase, but the drop is small in major biofuel producing countries as the expansion of biofuels would partially offset the negative impacts of the oil price increase on agricultural outputs. An increase in oil price would reduce global food supply through direct impacts as well as through the diversion of food commodities and cropland towards the production of biofuels. - Highlights: ► A global CGE model to analyze impacts of oil price on biofuels and food supply. ► Global biofuel penetration increases from 2.4% (2009) to 5.4% (2020) in baseline. ► A 150% rise of oil price boosts biofuels more than current mandates and targets do. ► Biofuels partially offset drops in agricultural outputs caused by oil price rise. ► Biofuels as well as oil price rise negatively affect global food supply.
Grossman, Michael; Tekin, Erdal; Wada, Roy
In this paper, we examine the effect of food prices on clinical measures of obesity, including body mass index (BMI) and percentage body fat (PBF) measures derived from bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) and dual energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), among youths ages 12 through 18. The empirical analyses employ data from various waves of the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) merged with several food prices measured by county and year. This is the first study to consi...
DiSantis, Katherine I; Grier, Sonya A; Oakes, J Michael; Kumanyika, Shiriki K
Identifying food pricing strategies to encourage purchases of lower-calorie food products may be particularly important for black Americans. Black children and adults have higher than average obesity prevalence and disproportionate exposure to food marketing environments in which high calorie foods are readily available and heavily promoted. The main objective of this study was to characterize effects of price on food purchases of black female household shoppers in conjunction with other key decision attributes (calorie content/healthfulness, package size, and convenience). Factorial discrete choice experiments were conducted with 65 low- and middle-/higher-income black women. The within-subject study design assessed responses to hypothetical scenarios for purchasing frozen vegetables, bread, chips, soda, fruit drinks, chicken, and cheese. Linear models were used to estimate the effects of price, calorie level (or healthfulness for bread), package size, and convenience on the propensity to purchase items. Moderating effects of demographic and personal characteristics were assessed. Compared with a price that was 35% lower, the regular price was associated with a lesser propensity to purchase foods in all categories (β = -0.33 to -0.82 points on a 1 to 5 scale). Other attributes, primarily calorie content/healthfulness, were more influential than price for four of seven foods. The moderating variable most often associated with propensity to pay the regular versus lower price was the reported use of nutrition labels. Price reductions alone may increase purchases of certain lower-calorie or more healthful foods by black female shoppers. In other cases, effects may depend on combining price changes with nutrition education or improvements in other valued attributes. PMID:24583415
Meyer, Katie A.; Guilkey, David K.; Ng, Shu Wen; Duffey, Kiyah J.; Popkin, Barry M.; Kiefe, Catarina I.; Steffen, Lyn M.; Shikany, James M.; Gordon-Larsen, Penny
Importance Fiscal food policies (e.g., taxation) are increasingly proposed to improve population-level health, but their impact on health disparities is unknown. Objective We estimated subgroup-specific effects of fast food price changes on fast food consumption and cardio-metabolic outcomes, hypothesizing inverse associations between fast food price with fast food consumption, BMI, and insulin resistance and stronger associations among blacks (vs. whites) and participants with relatively lower education or income. Design 20-year follow-up (5 exams) in a biracial U.S. prospective cohort: Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) (1985/86–2005/06, baseline n=5,115). Participants Aged 18–30 at baseline; designed for equal recruitment by race (black/white), educational attainment, age, and gender. Exposures Community-level price data from the Council for Community and Economic Research (C2ER) temporally- and geographically-linked to study participants’ home address at each exam. Main outcome and measures Participant-reported number of fast food eating occasions per week; BMI (kg/m2) from clinical assessment of weight and height; homeostatic model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) from fasting glucose and insulin. Covariates included individual- and community-level social and demographic factors. Results In repeated measures regression, multivariable-adjusted associations between fast food price and consumption were non-linear (quadratic, p<0.001), with significant inverse estimated effects on consumption at higher prices; estimates varied according to race (interaction term p=0.04), income (p=0.07), and education (p=0.03). For example, at the 10th percentile of price ($1.25/serving), blacks and whites had mean fast food consumption (times/week) of 2.2 (95% CI: 2.1–2.3) and 1.6 (1.5–1.7), respectively, while at the 90th percentile of price ($1.53/serving), respective mean consumption estimates were 1.9 (1.8–2.0) and 1.5 (1.4–1.6). We
Mansor H. Ibrahim
The present paper analyses the relations between food and oil prices for Malaysia using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lags (NARDL) model. The bounds test of the NARDL specification suggests the presence of cointegration among the variables, which include the food price, oil price and real GDP. The estimated NARDL model affirms the presence of asymmetries in the food price behavior. Namely, in the long run, we find a significant relation between oil price increases and food price. Mea...
Full Text Available The main objective of this paper is to present prices on PAE market (PAE- organic foods market. Prices are analyzed in terms of importance and the main factors that contribute to their establishment (quality of products, distribution channels, certification and eco-labeling system, customer segments and market development stage. This paper is based on the investigation of secondary sources, of specialized literature related to PAE consumers. The paper shows that are used three strategic options of prices: prices with high rigidity located in a low or high level and fluctuating prices, characterized by variations on short periods of time. Price is a very important barrier to market development but this importance can be mitigated through appropriate communication policies with the market, which are essential especially for markets in early stages of development.
M. Grimm (Michael)
textabstractI analyze the impact of food price inflation on parental decisions to send their children to school. Moreover, I use the fact that food crop farmers and cotton farmers were exposed differently to that shock to estimate the income elasticity of school enrolment. The results suggest that t
Stewart, Hayden; David E. Davis
This study examines spatial variation in the price and accessibility of fast food across a major urban area. We use novel data on the price of a representative fast food meal and the location of fast food restaurants belonging to one of three major chains in the District of Columbia and its surrounding suburbs. These data are used to test a structural model of spatial competition. The results of this study are easily interpreted and compared with a past analysis. We find that spatial differen...
Leibtag, Ephraim S.
Over the past 10 years, the growth of nontraditional retail food outlets has transformed the food market landscape, increasing the variety of shopping and food options available to consumers, as well as price variation in retail food markets. This report focuses on these dynamics and how they affect food price variation across store format types. The differences in prices across store formats are especially noteworthy when compared with standard measures of food price inflation over time. Ove...
Elijah Udoh; Festus O. Egwaikhide
Of recent, there has been growing global concern over oil price fluctuation and soaring food prices. In this disquisition, we re-examine the co-movement and the causality relationship between international oil price fluctuations and domestic food price inflation in Nigeria, using data for the period 1970 to 2008. The empirical results provide clear evidence in support of a causal relationship between oil price distortions and food price instability in Nigeria. The Granger causality test show ...
Garcia-German, Sol; Garrido, Alberto; Bardaji, Isabel
The rise of price levels and volatility of world agricultural commodities since 2006-2008 was followed by increased and more volatile food price inflation around the world. Using error correction models, this paper evaluates the velocity and extent to which world agricultural commodity price movements affect consumer food prices in the 28 EU's Member States. Results show a significant long run relationship between world agricultural commodity prices and food consumer prices in over half of th...
The food price crisis of 2007â€“2008 and recent resurgence of food prices have focused increasing attention on the causes and consequences of food price volatility in international food markets and the developing world, particularly in Africa south of the Sahara. In this paper, we examine the patterns and trends in food price volatility using an unusually rich database of African staple food prices. We find that international grain prices have become more volatile in recent years (2007â€“2010...
Volpe III, Rickard James
This article investigates the extent to which national brand and private label (store brand) prices behave differently as food price inflation changes. Empirical tests using a range of indices support the hypotheses that rising commodity and fuel prices lead to relatively larger surges in private label prices. When food prices are rising or high, the average price dif- ference between national brands and private labels shrinks. The findings have implications for understanding the welfare effe...
The increase in the price of oil and food carry major adverse poverty and macroeconomic implications especially for fragile and small states and for low income households in all developing countries. In terms of their impact on income distribution, inflation, and poverty food prices are of greater and more immediate concern than high fuel prices. However, the impact of the oil price increa...
Paolo Giordani; Nadia Rocha; Michele Ruta
This paper studies the relationship between trade policy and food prices. We show that, when individuals are loss averse, governments may use trade policy to shield the domestic economy from large food price shocks. This creates a complementarity between the price of food in international markets and trade policy. Specifically, unilateral actions give rise to a "multiplier effect": when a shock drives up the price of food, exporters respond by imposing restrictions while importers wind down p...
Todd, Jessica E.; Mancino, Lisa; Leibtag, Ephraim S.; Tripodo, Christina
The Quarterly Food-at-Home Price Database (QFAHPD) was developed to provide market-level food prices that can be used to study how prices affect food choices, intake, and health outcomes. This report presents a detailed description of the methodology used to construct the QFAHPD. The database, constructed from 1999-2006 Nielsen Homescan data, includes quarterly observations on the mean price of 52 food categories for 35 market groups covering the contiguous United States. Data from 2006 indic...
The objective of this paper is to investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index, especially the oil price, by principal component analysis to further understand the influence of the macroeconomic index on food prices. We examined the food prices of seven major products: eggs, meat, milk, oilseeds, rice, sugar and wheat. The macroeconomic variables studied were crude oil prices, consumer price indexes, food production indexes and GDP around the world between 1961 and 2005. We use the Scree test and the proportion of variance method for determining the optimal number of common factors. The correlation coefficient between the extracted principal component and the macroeconomic index varies between 0.87 for the world GDP and 0.36 for the consumer price index. We find the food production index has the greatest influence on the macroeconomic index and that the oil price index has an influence on the food production index. Consequently, crude oil prices have an indirect effect on food prices. - Research Highlights: →We investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index. →The crude oil price has indirect effect on the world GDP via its impacts on food production index. →The food production index is the source of causation for CPI and GDP is affected by CPI. →The results confirm an indirect effect among oil price, food price principal component.
Brown, Molly E.; Tondel, Fabien; Thorne, Jennifer A.; Essam, Timothy; Mann, Bristol F.; Stabler, Blake; Eilerts, Gary
Large price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets. However, reporting by the United States Agency for International Development (USAID)'s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) indicates that staple cereal prices in many markets of the developing world, especially in surplus-producing areas, often have a delayed and variable response to international export market price trends. Here we present new price indices compiled for improved food security monitoring and assessment, and specifically for monitoring conditions of food access across diverse food insecure regions. We found that cereal price indices constructed using market prices within a food insecure region showed significant differences from the international cereals price, and had a variable price dispersion across markets within each marketshed. Using satellite-derived remote sensing information that estimates local production and the FAO Cereals Index as predictors, we were able to forecast movements of the local or national price indices in the remote, arid and semi-arid countries of the 38 countries examined. This work supports the need for improved decision-making about targeted aid and humanitarian relief, by providing earlier early warning of food security crises.
Baek, Jungho; Koo, Won W.
Since the summer of 2007, U.S. food price has increased dramatically. Given public anxiety over fast-rising food prices in recent years, this paper attempts to analyze the effects of market factors ─ prices of energy and agricultural commodities and exchange rate ─ on U.S. food prices using a co-integration analysis. Results show that the agricultural commodity price and exchange rate play key roles in determining the short- and long-run movement of U.S. food prices. It is also found that in ...
Lee, Chinkook; Schluter, Gerald E.; O'Roark, Brian
An Input-Output model is used to analyze price pass-through effects of a minimum wage increase on prices of the food and kindred product and food-service industry. Although these sectors employ a disproportionate share of minimum wage workers, our results suggest a $0.50 increase in the minimum wage would minimally affect food prices.
Warr, Peter G.; Yusuf, Arief Anshory
This paper argues that recent increases in international food prices worsened poverty incidence in Indonesia, even though many poor farmers benefited. This conclusion is based on the application of a multi-sectoral, multi-household general equilibrium model of the Indonesian economy. The positive effect on the welfare of poor farmers was exceeded by the negative effect on poor consumers. Indonesia’s ban on rice imports since 2004 complicates this account. The import ban shielded Indonesia’s i...
Mohammad Ghahremanzadeh; Mohammad Bagher Ziaei
Iran has experienced high food prices in recent years. This paper examines the welfare impacts of rising major food groups' prices on Iranian urban households using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS) approach. The elasticity coefficients derived from QUAIDS are used to estimate Compensated Variations (CV).The study uses Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS) raw data, encompassing both low and high price periods. Prices of all food and agricu...
CLARK, Todd E.; Zaman, Saeed
Sharp rises in energy and other commodity prices have recently ignited concerns about inflation. Will these price increases spill over to other prices more generally? We study the typical responses of different price shocks and assess whether the recent behavior of producer and consumer prices is consistent with historical norms. Our analysis shows that the behavior of various producer and consumer prices since late 2009 has generally matched up with historical patterns. Overall, our findings...
Food prices have increased rapidly in recent years, and so has ethanol production. Some studies have claimed that there is a connection between the two. The main purpose of this paper is to add to this literature by examining the influence that the interplay between Brazil and the U.S. in ethanol production has on food prices. Specifically, and controlling for other variables, which have been shown to affect food prices, we investigate whether sugarcane ethanol and corn ethanol production have similar impacts on food prices, and whether ethanol productivity affects food prices. We find a positive significant effect of Brazilian market share in world ethanol market on relative food prices. We also find that an increase of Brazilian cane ethanol area has a negative effect on relative food prices. - Highlights: ► We examine if sugarcane ethanol and corn ethanol have similar impacts on food price. ► We examine if ethanol productivity affects food prices. ► We control for many other variables, which have been shown to affect food prices. ► Brazilian market share in ethanol market has a positive effect on food prices. ► Brazilian cane ethanol area has a negative effect on relative food prices.
Sivarajasingham Selliah; Shri-Dewi Applanaidu; Sallahuddin Hassan
Food prices have been increasing sharply since 2003. In the globalized world, the transmission of global foodprice increases to domestic market determines the decision of economic agents and policy makers of a domesticeconomy. The recent growth of global food prices affects the welfare of poor consumers and producers. In SriLanka, large segment of the population spends more than 50 percent of their income on food. Thus, this studyinvestigates and assesses how international food price surge af...
Full Text Available Hidden danger of food safety is always one of the important factors causing food price fluctuation. Once some kind of food occurs large scale of safety incident, its price is bound to be impacted. To analyze the view above by example, this study analyzed impact effect of clenbuterol event on the market price of pork using method of relative price with a substitute. The results demonstrated that, relative price of pork and beef was in a co-integration relationship before clenbuterol event occurred; the first structural breakpoint appeared half year after CCTV reported clenbuterol event and the second one occurred in April, 2012, indicating the impact effect of clenbuterol event to market price lasted for half year. Evaluation of price impact effect by error correction model indicated that, the price of pork lowered 30.3% averagely in that period, while the price of its substitute beef tended to be higher, with an amplification of 8.2%.
Lauren Q. Sneyd
Full Text Available This article analyses wild food consumption in urban areas of Cameroon. Building upon findings from Cameroon’s Comprehensive Food Security and Vulnerability Analysis (CFSVA this case study presents empirical data collected from 371 household and market surveys in Cameroonian cities. It employs the UN Special Rapporteur on the Right to Food’s framework for understanding challenges related to the availability, accessibility, and adequacy of food. The survey data suggest that many wild/traditional foods are physically available in Cameroonian cities most of the time, including fruits, vegetables, spices, and insects. Cameroonians spend considerable sums of their food budget on wild foods. However, low wages and the high cost of city living constrain the social and economic access most people have to these foods. The data also suggest that imports of non-traditional staple foods, such as low cost rice, have increasingly priced potentially more nutritious or safe traditional local foods out of markets after the 2008 food price crisis. As a result, diets are changing in Cameroon as the resource-constrained population continues to resort to the coping strategy of eating cheaper imported foods such as refined rice or to eating less frequently. Cameroon’s nutrition transition continues to be driven by need and not necessarily by the preferences of Cameroonian consumers. The implications of this reality for sustainability are troubling.
This paper studies co-movements between world oil prices and global prices for corn, soybean and wheat using copulas. Several copula models with different conditional dependence structures and time-varying dependence parameters were considered. Empirical results for weekly data from January 1998 to April 2011 showed weak oil-food dependence and no extreme market dependence between oil and food prices. These results support the neutrality of agricultural commodity markets to the effects of changes in oil prices and non-contagion between the crude oil and agricultural markets. However, dependence increased significantly in the last three years of the sampling period, even though upper tail dependence remained insignificant, indicating that food price spikes are not caused by positive extreme oil price changes. These results have implications for policy design, risk management and hedging strategies. - Highlights: ► We study co-movement between food and oil markets through copulas. ► Food prices are neutral to the effects of changes in oil prices. ► Oil price spikes had no causal effect on agricultural price spikes. ► Oil–corn and oil–soybean dependence increased in recent years. ► Food subsidy policies and price controls are unnecessary to avoid extreme oil prices.
Hidden danger of food safety is always one of the important factors causing food price fluctuation. Once some kind of food occurs large scale of safety incident, its price is bound to be impacted. To analyze the view above by example, this study analyzed impact effect of clenbuterol event on the market price of pork using method of relative price with a substitute. The results demonstrated that, relative price of pork and beef was in a co-integration relationship before clenbuterol event occu...
Rapidly growing fossil energy consumption in the transport sector in the last two centuries caused problems such as increasing greenhouse gas emissions, growing energy dependency and supply insecurity. One approach to solve these problems could be to increase the use of biofuels. Preferred feedstocks for current 1st generation biofuels production are corn, wheat, sugarcane, soybean, rapeseed and sunflowers. The major problem is that these feedstocks are also used for food and feed production. The core objective of this paper is to investigate whether the recent increase of biofuels production had a significant impact on the development of agricultural commodity (feedstock) prices. The most important impact factors like biofuels production, land use, yields, feedstock and crude oil prices are analysed. The major conclusions of this analysis are: In recent years the share of bioenergy-based fuels has increased moderately, but continuously, and so did feedstock production, as well as yields. So far, no significant impact of biofuels production on feedstock prices can be observed. Hence, a co-existence of biofuel and food production seems possible especially for 2nd generation biofuels. However, sustainability criteria should be seriously considered. But even if all crops, forests and grasslands currently not used were used for biofuels production it would be impossible to substitute all fossil fuels used today in transport.
Pollard, Christina Mary; Landrigan, Timothy John; Ellies, Pernilla Laila; Kerr, Deborah Anne; Lester, Matthew Langdon Underwood; Goodchild, Stanley Edward
Food affordability and quality can influence food choice. This research explores the impact of geographic factors on food pricing and quality in Western Australia (WA). A Healthy Food Access Basket (HFAB) was cost and a visual and descriptive quality assessment of 13 commonly consumed fresh produce items was conducted in-store on a representative sample of 144 food grocery stores. The WA retail environment in 2010 had 447 grocery stores servicing 2.9 million people: 38% of stores the two major chains (Coles® Supermarkets Australia and Woolworths ® Limited) in population dense areas, 50% were smaller independently owned stores (Independent Grocers Association®) in regional areas as well, and 12% Indigenous community stores in very remote areas. The HFAB cost 24% (pfoods cost more and the quality of fresh produce was lower. Food affordability and quality may deter healthier food choice in geographically isolated communities. Improving affordability and quality of nutritious foods in remote communities may positively impact food choices, improve food security and prevent diet-sensitive chronic disease. Policy makers should consider influencing agriculture, trade, commerce, transport, freight, and modifying local food economies. PMID:25516329
The objective of this paper is to investigate the co-movement of food prices and the macroeconomic index, especially the oil price, by principal component analysis to further understand the influence of the macroeconomic index on food prices. We examined the food prices of seven major products: eggs, meat, milk, oilseeds, rice, sugar and wheat. The macroeconomic variables studied were crude oil prices, consumer price indexes, food production indexes and GDP around the world between 1961 and 2005. We use the Scree test and the proportion of variance method for determining the optimal number of common factors. The correlation coefficient between the extracted principal component and the macroeconomic index varies between 0.87 for the world GDP and 0.36 for the consumer price index. We find the food production index has the greatest influence on the macroeconomic index and that the oil price index has an influence on the food production index. Consequently, crude oil prices have an indirect effect on food prices. (author)
Full Text Available The impact of price volatility on the food industry enterprises functioning is examined and analyzed in the article. The food price indexes, consumer prices index for food and nonalcoholic beverages for years 2005-2012, food and beverages production indexes in Ukraine for years 2007-2012 and FAO food price indexes are considered. The aspects of government regulation of pricing for certain types of food, its prices instability and volatility are traced. It is reasoned that the organizational-economic modernization is revealed in the enterprise’s ability as a system to respond adequately to changes in environment at any time and at the same time to generate these interaction, which requires a clear pricing mechanism, exceptional resources, competencies and knowledge, determining the opportunity of optimal available at its disposal resources combination. It is proved that the efficient pricing for food industry products, its dynamics analysis and monitoring in comparison with world prices is one of the determinants of successful organizational-economic modernization implementation for stable competitive market position ensuring
Ijeoma C. Nwoko
Full Text Available This study examines the effect of oil price on the volatility of food price in Nigeria. It specifically considers the long-run, short-run, and causal relationship between these variables. Annual data on oil price and individual prices of maize, rice, sorghum, soya beans, and wheat spanning from 2000 to 2013 were used. The price volatility for each crop was obtained using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedascity (GARCH (1, 1 model. Our measure of oil price is the Refiner acquisition cost of imported crude oil. The Augmented Dickey–Fuller and Phillip–Perron unit root tests show that all the variables are integrated of order one, I (1. Therefore, we use the Johansen co-integration test to examine the long-run relationship. Our results show that there is no long-run relationship between oil price and any of the individual food price volatility. Thus, we implement a VAR instead of a VECM to investigate the short-run relationship. The VAR model result revealed a positive and significant short-run relationship between oil price and each of the selected food price volatility with exception of that of rice and wheat price volatility. These results were further confirmed by the impulse response functions. The Granger causality test result indicates a unidirectional causality from oil price to maize, soya bean, and sorghum price volatilities but does not show such relationship for rice and wheat price volatilities. We draw some policy implications of these findings.
Tsion Taye Assefa; Meuwissen, Miranda P.M.; Oude Lansink, Alfons G.J.M.
ABSTRACT This paper reviews the literature on price volatility transmission in vertical food markets. The methods and major findings of the literature are discussed and avenues for future research are suggested. The literature review shows that price volatility is analyzed using a class of univariate and multivariate GARCH models. The reviewed studies conclude that price volatility transmits along food supply chains thereby exposing all chain actors to risk and uncertainty. Extension of the l...
In an effort to assess the true effects of higher corn prices, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) commissioned an analysis on the impact of increased corn prices on retail food prices. This paper summarizes key results of the study and offers additional analysis based on information from a variety of other sources.
Zhang, Qi; Jones, Sonya; Ruhm, Christopher J; Andrews, Margaret
Children in food-insecure households are more likely to experience poorer health function and worse academic achievement. To investigate the relation between economic environmental factors and food insecurity among children, we examined the relation between general and specific food prices (fast food, fruits and vegetables, beverages) and risk of low (LFS) and very low food security (VLFS) status among low-income American households with children. Using information for 27,900 child-year observations from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study-Kindergarten Class of 1998-1999 linked with food prices obtained from the Cost of Living Data of the Council for Community and Economic Research, formerly known as the American Chamber of Commerce Researchers' Association, fixed effects models were estimated within stratified income groups. Higher overall food prices were associated with increased risk of LFS and VLFS (coefficient = 0.617; P fast food and fruit and vegetable prices also contributed to higher risk of food insecurity (coefficient = 0.632, P fast food; coefficient = 0.879, P food security status, even when controlling for general food prices. Thus, although food price changes were strongly related to food security status among low-income American households with children, the effects were not uniform across types of food. These relations should be accounted for when implementing policies that change specific food prices. PMID:23946342
Jensen, Jørgen Dejgård; Møller, Anja Skadkær
This purpose of this paper is to investigate price transmission patterns through selected Danish food chains – from primary production to processing, from processing to wholesale and from wholesale to retail prices. Specifically, the study addresses the following research questions: To what exten...... between sectors and stages of the food supply chain. Both transaction costs and imperfect competition seem to contribute to these asymmetries....... are commodity prices transmitted from one stage to another in the food chain? What is the time horizon in the price transmission? Is price transmission symmetric – in the short run and in the long run? Is the degree of price transmission affected by the degree of concentration in the supply and demand...
James P Walsh
Food prices are generally excluded from measures of inflation most closely watched by policymakers due either to their transitory nature or their higher volatility. However, in lower income countries, food price inflation is not only more volatile but also on average higher than nonfood inflation. Food inflation is also in many cases more persistent than nonfood inflation, and shocks in many countries are propagated strongly into nonfood inflation. Under these conditions, and particularly giv...
Szilagyiova, Silvia; Anchor, J.R; Dastgir, Shabbir
The dynamics of food price inflation have changed significantly. So, understanding them is important for policy not only in developing countries but also in developed countries like the UK. A question that has risen is the role, if any, of central banks in combating global food price inflation. The financial crisis and its negative consequences represent the primary problem for policy makers in stabilizing all economies. However the food crisis should not be forgotten since the dynamic of...
Brown, Molly E.
In many poor, food insecure regions, agriculture is a primary source of income and farmers are reliant both on their own production and on purchasing food in the market to feed their families. Large local food price increases over a short time period can be indicative of a deteriorating food security situation and may be the consequence of weather-related food production declines, Dr can simply be the result of price transmission from the international commodity market. Food price indices developed by the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) are used to monitor food price trends at a global level, but largely reflect supply and demand conditions in export markets far from the places where the chronically food insecure live. A much better understanding of how local staple food prices in isolated regions such as West Africa that grow most of the food they eat to better understand the impact of global commodity market transformations on sensitive communities at the margin. This information will also enable improved strategies for these farmers who are extraordinarily sensitive to climate change impacts on agricultural growing conditions.
Gregory, Christian A.; Coleman-Jensen, Alisha
In this paper, we estimate the effect of food prices on food insecurity for SNAP recipients using data from the Current Population Survey and the recently published Quarterly Food At Home Price Database. We form a local food price index based on amounts of food for a household of four as established by the Thrifty Food Plan. We use an econometric model that accounts for the endogeneity of SNAP receipt to food insecurity and for household-level unobservables. We find that the average effect of...
Eduardo Lora; Andrew Powell; Pilar Tavella
There is widespread concern that recent increases in international food prices may have significant effects on domestic food prices and inflation. This note assesses the impact of the recent food price shock on food, non-food and consumer inflation in the countries of Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC). Vector Autoregressive Regressions (VARs) are estimated for each country to trace the effect of international food prices, the price of oil and the value of the US dollar on domestic prices...
Todd, Jessica E.; Leibtag, Ephraim S.; Penberthy, Corttney
Although healthy foods can be affordable, if less healthy foods are cheaper, individuals may have an economic incentive to consume a less healthful diet. Using the Quarterly Food-at-Home Price Database, we explore whether a select set of healthy foods (whole grains, dark green vegetables, orange vegetables, whole fruit, skim and 1% milk, fruit juice, and bottled water) are more expensive than less healthy alternatives. We find that not all healthy foods are more expensive than less healthy al...
Martin-Prevel, Yves; Becquey, Elodie; Tapsoba, Sylvestre; Castan, Florence; Coulibaly, Dramane; Fortin, Sonia; Zoungrana, Mahama; Lange, Matthias; Delpeuch, Francis; Savy, Mathilde
Although the 2008 food price crisis presumably plunged millions of households into poverty and food insecurity, the real impact of the crisis has rarely been documented using field data. Our objective was to assess the consequences of this crisis for household food insecurity and dietary diversity in urban Burkina Faso. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted among randomly selected households in Ouagadougou in July 2007 (n = 3017) and July 2008 (n = 3002). At each round, food insecurity assessed by the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale (HFIAS), the Dietary Diversity Score of an index-member of the household (IDDS = number of food groups consumed in the last 24 h), and food expenditure were collected. Food prices of the 17 most frequently consumed food items were recorded throughout the study area. Food prices at local markets increased considerably between 2007 and 2008, especially those of fish (113%), cereals (53%), and vegetable oil (44%), increasing the household monthly food expenditure by 18%. Thirty-three percent of households were food secure in 2007 and 22% in 2008 (P = 0.02). Individuals consumed fewer fruits and vegetables, dairy products, and meat/poultry in 2008 than in 2007 (mean IDDS = 5.7 ± 1.7 food groups in 2007 vs. 5.2 ± 1.5 in 2008; P crisis. PMID:22833656
Patterson, A; Singh-Knights, D.; Knights, Marlon
Large structural shifts in the global economy are causing a dramatic rise in the price of food. Since 1994, food prices in Trinidad and Tobago have risen above 350%, faster than the price of other items. From March 2006 to 2007, the food component of the retail price index increased by 19% whilst the overall price index increased by 8%. Sizable and fluctuating price differences have been recorded between wholesale and retail prices. This paper looks at the development of retail food prices, i...
Samuels, Christina A.
With food and fuel prices increasing sharply, food and nutrition directors in school districts around the country are finding themselves facing some uncomfortable choices. In some districts, school lunch menus are being pared down to fewer selections, instead of the array of healthy options districts would like to offer. In other areas, canned and…
International Monetary Fund
This paper examines the implications of elevated global food prices for inflation in select Central Asian economies - Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan. The findings suggest that global food inflation has significant short-run effects that build over time. Inflation outcomes simulated under alternative global wheat price assumptions underscore these vulnerabilities, and suggest that sustained administrative measures are unlikely to prove effective. In line with struc...
Barrett, Christopher B.
This paper explores the interrelationship between poverty, risk, and deforestation by small farmers in the low-income tropics. A nonseparable household model reveals how exogenous shocks to the mean or variance of a food price distribution affect peasants' incentives to clear forest. The resulting links between food price policy, farmer behavior, and deforestation offer an innovative explanation of the vicious cycle of peasant immiserization and tropical deforestation. An intriguing, testable...
Quisumbing, Agnes; Meinzen-Dick, Ruth Suseela; Bassett, Lucy; Usnick, Michael; Pandolfelli, Lauren; Morden, Cheryl; Alderman, Harold
"The current food price crisis has received widespread attention, but discussions to date have largely overlooked the gender dimensions of the crisis. More than 15 years of rigorous research on gender and intrahousehold resource allocation suggest not only that men and women will be affected differently by the global food crisis, but also that, as both consumers and producers, they will have different stocks of resources with which to respond to rising prices. Although the current situation c...
Full Text Available Iran has experienced high food prices in recent years. This paper examines the welfare impacts of rising major food groups' prices on Iranian urban households using Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System (QUAIDS approach. The elasticity coefficients derived from QUAIDS are used to estimate Compensated Variations (CV.The study uses Iranian Household Expenditure and Income Survey (HEIS raw data, encompassing both low and high price periods. Prices of all food and agricultural products increased during the entire survey period of 2004 to 2012. Based on our estimates, the food groups of cereals, dairy products, vegetable and pulses, Potables and Spices are necessary goods, as their budget elasticity is positive and below one at the same time. Meat, edible oils, fruits and dried fruits and Sugary products are luxury goods, with income elasticity above one. We find that the remarkable increases in food prices resulted in severe erosion of purchasing power for the Iranian urban households and they need to be compensated on average about 48% of their initial income for the food price changes they faced during the 2004 and 2012. In addition the high share of cereals in year 2012 implies that urban households shift their consumption to cheaper calorie source. This figure is confirmed with the decline in the share of meat, dairy Products, fruits and dried fruits, vegetables and pulses and potables expenditure.
Durevall, Dick; van der Weide, Roy
This paper shows how a developing country, Lao PDR, imports high glutinous rice prices by exporting its staple food to neighboring countries, Vietnam and Thailand. Lao PDR has extensive export controls on rice, generating a sizable difference between domestic and international prices. Controls are relaxed after good harvests, leading to a surge in exports early in the season and rapidly ri...
Dasgupta, Dipak; Dubey, R.N.; R. Sathish
Inflation, especially in food prices, has been persistently high in India during the past twenty four months. This has been a source of concern to policy-makers. Fortunately, food price increases are now starting to ease, after the major spike that occurred in the wake of the severe drought of 2009. However, there still remains concern that we: (a) need to better understand the factors that drive such spikes in key prices; and (b) design more effective policies to prevent such future pr...
Full Text Available Bangladesh has often been regarded as a country whose food security situation is frequently worsened by price rise of essential foodstuffs. Rice has been the most significant cereal food in Bangladesh because it accounts for around 42 percent of per capita daily energy intake. Food price rise has become the most serious concern of majority of the country’s household as price rise becomes the regular phenomenon in the country. One-third of the country’s total population have been living under the poverty line. Regardless of the domestic rice production, Bangladesh imports around three million tonnes of rice every year which constitutes 17 percent of the country’s total import. Therefore, this empirical paper has attempted to explore how Bangladeshi local rice price is being affected by the world rice price, and how rising rice price affects household food security. In doing so, co-integration model and error correction model were applied to weekly rice price data obtained from the on-line database of the Food Policy Monitoring Unit of the Ministry of Food, Government of Bangladesh. The results confirm that world rice price and Bangladesh local market rice price are co-integrated. Although there has not been any immediate impact of world price shock in Bangladesh due to the influence of short term measures taken by the government, there are long term impacts of such price shock. Logit model has been employed to determine the rice price threshold beyond which households become unable to ensure their food security. For this purpose a sample of 80 poor households whose per capita income was less than $1, was surveyed in order to obtain the required data. The results of the logit model suggest that if rice price goes beyond Tk 34 per kilogram, sample poor households become extremely vulnerable in respect of food security. Finally, some recommendations have been made at the end of this paper based on the empirical findings.
Leonard I. Nakamura
If a product sells for $3 this week at the local supermarket and $2 next week, what is the "real" price? What if that same product has a different price at a different store? Thanks to scanner technology, food prices differ a lot these days because they can be changed quickly and easily. How do our official statistics take these price movements into account? Not too well, according to Leonard Nakamura. In this article, he describes the retail revolution of recent years and how it has led to m...
Full Text Available Abstract Recent years have seen global food prices rise and become more volatile. Price surges in 2008 and 2011 held devastating consequences for hundreds of millions of people and negatively impacted many more. Today one billion people are hungry. The issue is a high priority for many international agencies and national governments. At the Cannes Summit in November 2011, the G20 leaders agreed to implement five objectives aiming to mitigate food price volatility and protect vulnerable persons. To succeed, the global community must now translate these high level policy objectives into practical actions. In this paper, we describe challenges and unresolved dilemmas before the global community in implementing these five objectives. The paper describes recent food price volatility trends and an evaluation of possible causes. Special attention is given to climate change and water scarcity, which have the potential to impact food prices to a much greater extent in coming decades. We conclude the world needs an improved knowledge base and new analytical capabilities, developed in parallel with the implementation of practical policy actions, to manage food price volatility and reduce hunger and malnutrition. This requires major innovations and paradigm shifts by the global community.
Recent spikes in international food prices and the occurrence of ‘food riots’ in the period 2007-2008 has led many researchers to investigate the links between food prices and conflict or political instability more closely. However, this emerging literature suffers from a number of flaws and misunderstandings. The objective of this paper is to discuss these further and offer ways of addressing them. I focus on three main issues: firstly, the vague use of concepts such as ‘political instabilit...
As the basis for maintenance of national security and global strategic material,food has always captured the attention of governments in the world.After reaching a certain stage of industrialization,most countries will take the food support and protection measures,and the policy objectives and policy tools have evolved into a set of policy systems through continuous adjustment,but the intervention in food price has always been present.The food price intervention only plays a role in regulating food market supply and demand and guaranteeing minimum income for grain producers,and it can not reflect the cost of food production and continuously improve grain producers’ income,but because of its simple operation,low cost and immediate effect,it is suitable for the countries with a large number of grain producers but small operation scale in the short term.
Purpose – Sustainable products often suffer a competitive disadvantage compared with mainstream products because they must cover ecological and social costs that their competitors leave to future generations. The purpose of this paper is to identify price strategies for sustainable products that min
Otto, C.; Schewe, J.; Frieler, K.
Extreme climate events such as droughts, floods, or heat waves affect agricultural production in major cropping regions and therefore impact the world market prices of staple crops. In the last decade, crop prices exhibited two very prominent price peaks in 2007-2008 and 2010-2011, threatening food security especially for poorer countries that are net importers of grain. There is evidence that these spikes in grain prices were at least partly triggered by actual supply shortages and the expectation of bad harvests. However, the response of the market to supply shocks is nonlinear and depends on complex and interlinked processes such as warehousing, speculation, and trade policies. Quantifying the contributions of such different factors to short-term price variability remains difficult, not least because many existing models ignore the role of storage which becomes important on short timescales. This in turn impedes the assessment of future climate change impacts on food prices. Here, we present a simple model of annual world grain prices that integrates grain stocks into the supply and demand functions. This firstly allows us to model explicitly the effect of storage strategies on world market price, and thus, for the first time, to quantify the potential contribution of trade policies to price variability in a simple global framework. Driven only by reported production and by long--term demand trends of the past ca. 40 years, the model reproduces observed variations in both the global storage volume and price of wheat. We demonstrate how recent price peaks can be reproduced by accounting for documented changes in storage strategies and trade policies, contrasting and complementing previous explanations based on different mechanisms such as speculation. Secondly, we show how the integration of storage allows long-term projections of grain price variability under climate change, based on existing crop yield scenarios.
Saunders, Caroline M.; Kaye-Blake, William; Cagatay, Selim
The recent rise of food cost in world markets has accelerated the research examining the underlying factors for this rise. The present research investigated the separate and combined impacts of three factors thought to contribute to the price rise: adverse weather events, strong and sustained growth in high populated countries, and increased biofuels production. The research further analysed the effects of these price rises on consumption expenditures in Brazil, China and India. Analyses were...
Emmanuel Dhyne; Jerzy Konieczny; Fabio Rumler; Patrick Sevestre
The study on price stickiness examined nominal rigidities in the euro area and their importance for the functioning of markets. The study examined nominal rigidities in the euro area and their importance for the functioning of markets. It analysed the price setting behaviour of firms at the micro-level, developed several indicators to measure the degree of producer and consumer price rigidity at sector and product level and examined the various factors affecting consumer and producer price ri...
Garcia-Fuentes, Pablo; Ferreira, Gustavo; Harrison, R. Wes; Kinsey, Jean D.; Degeneffe, Dennis
Ongoing food safety incidents have generated a national interest in the significant costs that food recalls impose on stakeholders. This paper examines the impact of media coverage of food safety events on consumer confidence in food safety, and measures the response of stock prices of food companies to changes in consumer confidence. Results show that increases in media coverage have a negative impact on consumer confidence, and that decreases in the levels of consumer confidence regarding f...
Powell, Lisa M; Kumanyika, Shiriki K; Isgor, Zeynep; Rimkus, Leah; Zenk, Shannon N; Chaloupka, Frank J
Food and beverage price promotions may be potential targets for public health initiatives but have not been well documented. We assessed prevalence and patterns of price promotions for food and beverage products in a nationwide sample of food stores by store type, product package size, and product healthfulness. We also assessed associations of price promotions with community characteristics and product prices. In-store data collected in 2010-2012 from 8959 food stores in 468 communities spanning 46 U.S. states were used. Differences in the prevalence of price promotions were tested across stores types, product varieties, and product package sizes. Multivariable regression analyses examined associations of presence of price promotions with community racial/ethnic and socioeconomic characteristics and with product prices. The prevalence of price promotions across all 44 products sampled was, on average, 13.4% in supermarkets (ranging from 9.1% for fresh fruits and vegetables to 18.2% for sugar-sweetened beverages), 4.5% in grocery stores (ranging from 2.5% for milk to 6.6% for breads and cereals), and 2.6% in limited service stores (ranging from 1.2% for fresh fruits and vegetables to 4.1% for breads and cereals). No differences were observed by community characteristics. Less-healthy versus more-healthy product varieties and larger versus smaller product package sizes generally had a higher prevalence of price promotion, particularly in supermarkets. On average, in supermarkets, price promotions were associated with 15.2% lower prices. The observed patterns of price promotions warrant more attention in public health food environment research and intervention. PMID:26827618
Bukeviciute, Lina; Dierx, Adriaan; Fabienne ILZKOVITZ; Roty, Guillaume
Agricultural commodities and consumer food prices have experienced strong variations over the last 2 years, both upwards and downwards. This increased volatility, combined with long-term prospects of rising food prices, highlights the necessity to increase the efficiency of the food supply chain to ensure consumer food prices reflect the evolution of inputs prices. This paper aims at better understanding price transmission mechanisms along the chain across European Union Member States. Signif...
Binkley, James K.; John M. Connor
This paper examines the relationship of 1987 retail grocery prices to supermarket sales concentration across 95 U.S. metropolitan areas. The regression model incorporates a large number of population, retail-cost, and retail competition factors and separate prices by type of grocery item. We find that the concentration-price relationship is sensitive to item type: positive for packaged, branded, dry groceries and unrelated for produce, meat, and dairy product prices. As for market rivalry, we...
This paper aims to analyze the tax risk related to transfer pricing and methods of reducing it by Polish enterprises. Effective risk management requires identifying risk areas, quantifying the risk, as well as proper application of procedures that enable the reduction or an elimination of risk exposure. Creating or using adequate tax documentation, advance pricing agreements or internal transfer pricing procedures are the most important means of managing transfer pricing ris...
RAOUL SABIN GORDEAN
Full Text Available The paper covers issues with respect to the agro-food product prices on the agrofood market in Romania, in general, from a micro and a macroeconomic perspective, and the basic features of these products within the nutrition of a nation.
Green, Rosemary; Cornelsen, Laura; Dangour, Alan D.; Turner, Rachel; Shankar, Bhavani; Mazzocchi, Mario; Richard D. Smith
Objective To quantify the relation between food prices and the demand for food with specific reference to national and household income levels. Design Systematic review with meta-regression. Data sources Online databases of peer reviewed and grey literature (ISI Web of Science, EconLit, PubMed, Medline, AgEcon, Agricola, Google, Google Scholar, IdeasREPEC, Eldis, USAID, United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization, World Bank, International Food Policy Research Institute), hand searched r...
Emek Basker; Muhammad Taimur Khan
WWe study the e?ect of increases in e?ective minimum wages on the prices of several fast-food items using quarterly city-level data from 1993-2014, a period during much of which the federal minimum wage declined in real value while state-level legislation ?ourished. For one product, a burger, we ?nd a robust price elasticity of 9% with respect to the minimum wage. This estimate indicates substantial cost pass-through when contextualized by the e?ect of minimumwage increases on restaurant wage...
von Braun, Joachim; Tadesse, Getaw
Since the 2007–08 food crisis, many thoughtful analyses have addressed the causes and impacts of high and volatile international food prices and proposed solutions to the crisis. These studies have covered global as well as local food price dynamics and policy reactions. The food price problem is, however, far-reaching, and its impacts are wide and interrelated. The price formation mechanism has become highly complex and dynamic. Policy actions are politically and economically sensitive. This...
Ferreira, Francisco H.G.; Fruttero, Anna; Leite, Phillippe; Lucchetti, Leonardo
Food price inflation in Brazil in the twelve months to June 2008 was 18 percent, while overall inflation was seven percent. Using spatially disaggregated monthly data on consumer prices and two different household surveys, we estimate the welfare consequences of these food price increases, and their distribution across households. Because Brazil is a large food producer, with a predominant...
The agricultural commodity crisis of 2006–2008 and the recent evolution of commodity markets have reignited anxieties in Finland over fast-rising food prices and food security. Little is known about the strength of the linkages between food markets and input markets, such as the energy market. Using monthly series of price indices from 1995 to 2010, we estimate a vector error-correction (VEC) model in a cointegration framework in order to investigate the short-term and long-term dynamics of food price formation. The results indicate that a statistically significant long-run equilibrium relationship exists between the prices of food and those of the main variable inputs consumed by the food chain, namely agricultural commodities, labour, and energy. When judged by the magnitude of long-run pass-through rates, farm prices represent the main determinant of food prices, followed by wages in food retail and the price of energy. The parsimonious VEC model suggests that the dynamics of food price formation are dominated by a relatively quick process of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium, the half life of the transitional dynamics being six to eight months following a shock. - Highlights: • We investigate the dynamics of food price formation in Finland. • We establish the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between the prices of food, energy, agricultural commodities, and wages. • Energy price plays a significant but limited role in determining the equilibrium level of food prices
The rapid rise in food prices has been a burden on the poor in developing countries, including in India, who spend roughly half of their household incomes on food. In many countries and regions, food price inflation is higher than aggregate inflation and contributing to underlying inflationary pressures. Food grain prices have more than doubled between January 2006 and June 2008. More than 60 percent of this increase has occurred since January 2008 alone. Although the pass-through of rising g...
The study aims to investigate the influence factors on the crop food supply price using the Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) method. Crops are the basic food rations for urban and rural residents and occupy the most important position in the food consumption. The price of the crop food has important influence on the stable economic operation and even social stability in China; hence it is crucial to find out the fluctuation rules and formation mechanism of crop food supply price. However, ther...
Jan-Egbert Sturm; Ulrich Fritsche; Michael Graff; Michael Lamla; Sarah Lein; Volker Nitsch; David Liechti; Daniel Triet
The purpose of the study is to examine the effects of the 'euro cash changeover' on consumer prices in the euro area. The report begins by describing price developments at the time of the introduction of euro notes and coins. The study also investigates the impact of price developments at the euro changeover on different households by socio-economic group. The third part of the report focuses on inflation perceptions and a fourth section explores the cross-border convergence of prices since t...
Schmitz, Silke; Abdulai, Awudu
This study examined the incidence and determinants of quantity price discounts and quantity price surcharges in the German food sector through a bivariate probit, using recent consumer scanner survey data. Selectivity bias was corrected for in estimating the degree of quantity price surcharge and quantity price discount, using Heckman's procedure. The findings reveal that almost 10% of the investigated products attract higher unit prices for larger package sizes, although the extent of price ...
Verpoorten, Marijke; Arora, A.; Stoop, Nik; Swinnen, Jo
This article analyzes data on self-reported food insecurity of more than 50,000 individuals in 18 Sub-Saharan African countries over the period 2005–2008, when global food prices increased dramatically. The average level of self-reported food insecurity was high but remarkably stable over time, at about 54%. However, this average hides large heterogeneity, both within countries and across countries. In eight of the sample countries, self-reported food security improved, while it worsened in t...
This doctoral thesis is in line with the renewed interest in research on agriculture and food security, following the 2008 global food crisis. The aim of this thesis is to contribute to a better understanding of the complex issues surrounding food security. The first chapter investigates whether the changes in the international price of rice are transmitted to the domestic prices of rice in Senegal, Mali and Chad. Results indicate that the domestic prices of imported rice in Dakar and of loca...
This report, Managing Food Price Risks and Instability in an Environment of Market Liberalization, studies the food price instability and risk problem in low-income countries and investigates the benefits and costs of alternative policy responses, and provides guidance on how to make the transition from state-dominated markets to private markets. The report concludes that problems of food price instability and food insecurity need to be addressed by developing: measures to improve overall pro...
Full Text Available Trade of agricultural commodities has grown significantly in most Latin American countries (LAC over the last two decades. However, after the international food price surges in 2006-08 and 2011-12 concerns about food access of the poor arose. Within a panel framework containing six LAC (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico and Peru, we used a single equation error correction model to identify possible cointegrating relationships between the food consumer price index (CPI and a set of trade related and domestic variables. The main focus of the study was to examine how different levels of trade openness impact international food price transmission to domestic markets. Our results confirm that deeper market integration increases global price transmission elasticities. In other words, more agricultural trade openness proves to elevate food CPIs during global price spikes. Thus, for poor consumers world price shocks can be deteriorating in the short-run and domestic food prices will slowly converge to a higher long-run equilibrium. Especially in increasingly integrated economies, effective policies to buffer food price shocks should be put in place, but must be carefully planned with the required budget readily available. We also found that exchange rate appreciations can buffer price shocks to a certain extent and that monetary policies seem to be an appropriate means for stabilizing food prices to safeguard food access of the poor population.
Anania, Giovanni; Nistico, Rosanna
— Price dispersion, i.e. a homogeneous product sold at different prices by different sellers, is among the most replicated findings in empirical economics. The paper assesses the extent and determinants of spatial price dispersion for 14 perfectly homogeneous food products in more than 400 retailers in a market characterized by the persistence of a large number of relatively small traditional food stores, side by side with large supermarkets. The extent of observed price dispersion is quite h...
Anania, Giovanni; Nistico, Rosanna
Price dispersion, i.e. a homogeneous product sold at different prices by different sellers, is among the most replicated findings in empirical economics. The paper assesses the extent and determinants of spatial price dispersion for 14 perfectly homogeneous food products in more than 400 retailers in a market characterized by the persistence of a large number of relatively small traditional food stores, side by side large supermarkets. The extent of observed price dispersion is quite high, su...
Ni Mhurchu, Cliona; Eyles, Helen; Schilling, Chris; Yang, Qing; Kaye-Blake, William; Genç, Murat; Blakely, Tony
Background Targeted food pricing policies may improve population diets. To assess their effects on inequalities, it is important to determine responsiveness to price changes across income levels and ethnic groups. Objective Our goal was to estimate price elasticity (PE) values for major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, by income and ethnicity. PE values represent percentage change in demand associated with 1% change in price of that good (own-PE) or another good (cross-PE). Desig...
Stroebele, Nanette; Dietze, Pia; Tinnemann, Peter; Willich, Stefan N.
Abstract Aim The neighbourhood environment appears to influence people?s food consumption. Access, variety and pricing of foods play a role in the socioeconomic difference of fruit and vegetable consumption. This study compared differences in the number of grocery stores, variety of fresh fruits and vegetables, and food prices in districts with different Social Indices (SI) in Berlin, Germany. Methods The ...
Drabik, D.; Ciaian, P.; Pokrivcak, J.
This is the first paper to analyze the impact of biofuels on the price transmission along the food chain. We analyze the U.S. corn sector and its vertical links with food and ethanol (energy) markets. We find that biofuels affect the price transmission elasticity in the food chain compared to a no b
Dorosh, Paul A.
World price shocks and disruptions in international cereal trade in 2007 and 2008 caused considerable anxiety and hardship for food importing countries throughout the world. In South Asia, Pakistan, Afghanistan, Bangladesh and India were all affected by these movements in international prices, though the effects on domestic prices in each case was mitigated or exacerbated by each country’s own trade policies, as well as the trade policies of its neighbours. This paper reviews domestic and int...
Holtemöller, Oliver; Mallick, Sushanta
This paper investigates a perception in the political debates as to what extent poor countries are affected by price movements in the global commodity markets. To test this perception, we use the case of India to establish in a standard SVAR model that global food prices influence aggregate prices and food prices in India. To further analyze these empirical results, we specify a small open economy New-Keynesian model including oil and food prices and estimate it using observed data over the p...
Hannan, Peter; French, Simone A.; Story, Mary; Fulkerson, Jayne A.
Examined the purchase patterns of seven targeted foods under conditions in which prices of three high-fat foods were raised and prices of four low-fat foods were lowered in a high school cafeteria over 1 school year. Data collected on food sales and revenues supported the feasibility of a pricing strategy that offered low-fat foods at lower prices…
This paper synthesizes the evidence on price transmission from international maize, rice and wheat markets to domestic markets in fourteen developing countries during the global food crisis in 2007-08. A great variation in the price transmission patterns is observed; from almost no price pass-through in China and India, over close relationship between international and domestic prices in Brazil and South Africa, to substantial domestic price overshooting in Ethiopia and Nigeria. Much of this ...
This paper examines empirical issues of pricing and price dispersion within franchised restaurant and fast-food chains. Given the per se illegality of resale price maintenance (RPM) under current U.S. Antitrust laws, and the fact that franchised outlets are independent businesses under the law, franchisors must delegate the power to set prices to franchisees whereas corporate chains can control downstream prices directly. The issue I examine is whether it matters empirically who, between the ...
The topic of this diploma thesis is the Consumer protection in the food supplements area. The work has been devided into three parts. The first part is devoted to the overview about categorization of the products with the impact on health. This part of this work also includes the elementary terms, which are: food, food supplements, medicinal products, cosmetics products and medical devices. The second chapter is devoted to the matter of food supplements as such. The third chapter deals with t...
International Monetary Fund
This paper explores the role of foreign aid and remittance inflows in the mitigation of the effects of food price shocks. Using a large sample of developing countries and mobilising dynamic panel data specifications, the econometric results yield two important findings. First, remittance and aid inflows significantly dampen the effect of food price shocks in the most vulnerable countries. Second, a lower remittance-to-GDP ratio is required in order to fully absorb the effects of food price sh...
In order to improve the prediction precision and accuracy of Chinese food price, the application of fuzzy neutral network on it in studied in depth. Firstly, the situation of China food price is analyzed. Secondly, the basic theory of fuzzy neutral network is analyzed. Thirdly, the training algorithm of fuzzy neutral network is designed. Finally, a simulation analysis is carried out for food prices in a province and results show that the fuzzy neutral network is an effective tool for predicti...
Berg, Tim Oliver
I use a Bayesian vector autoregressive (VAR) model to investigate the impact of monetary and technology shocks on the euro area stock market in 1987-2005. I find an important role for technology shocks, but not monetary shocks, in explaining variations in real stock prices. The identification method is flexible enough to study the effects of technology news shocks. The responses are consistent with the idea that news on technology improvements have an immediate impact on stock prices. These f...
Lagi, Marco; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer
Increases in global food prices have led to widespread hunger and social unrest---and an imperative to understand their causes. In a previous paper published in September 2011, we constructed for the first time a dynamic model that quantitatively agreed with food prices. Specifically, the model fit the FAO Food Price Index time series from January 2004 to March 2011, inclusive. The results showed that the dominant causes of price increases during this period were investor speculation and ethanol conversion. The model included investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Here, we extend the food prices model to January 2012, without modifying the model but simply continuing its dynamics. The agreement is still precise, validating both the descriptive and predictive abilities of the analysis. Policy actions are needed to avoid a third speculative bubble that would cause prices to rise above recent peaks by the end of 2012.
Roseline Nyakerario Misati
Full Text Available In the recent past, the Kenyan economy experienced persistent inflationary pressures, partly attributed to food price spikes. However, the quantitative role of food prices in inflation is not well understood or formally empirically analyzed in Kenya yet food occupies a weight of 36 percent in the consumer price index and contributes a monthly average of over 40 percent to overall inflation. Based on monthly data covering the period 1997-2012, this paper attempts to fill this gap by examining the relationship between food prices and inflation. The study used gap models and Phillips curve approaches to estimate the passthrough effects of food prices to both overall inflation and non-food non-fuel inflation. Based on gap models, the results confirm presence of second round effects from food prices to inflation while estimations of the Phillips curve suggest a domestic food price pass-through of 0.49 to overall inflation and 0.38 to non-food non-fuel inflation. The world food prices pass-through to overall inflation and non-food non-fuel inflation are estimated at 0.09 and 0.08, respectively. Thus this paper recommends usage of headline inflation to estimate trend inflation, enhanced communication to mitigate second round effects and that while monetary policy is very critical in anchoring inflationary expectations, there is mutual gain from a supportive fiscal policy in addressing supply side shocks.
The real euro area house price has increased steadily since 1997 reaching more than 6.5% in 2004 and 2005. The rise on its own is not as striking as the long lasting effect of the phenomenon. Indeed, it is the longest lasting house price increase ever experience in the euro area since data are available. Due to a lack of data, I use panel econometrics. The estimated coefficients are then used to generate euro area fitted values in all three papers. In my first paper, I investigate the questio...
Food prices have been rising rapidly over the past two years. In August 2008, aggregate food prices were 6.1 percent above their level in August 2007. Prices in August 2007 were already 4.8 percent above the level in August 2006. Because food purchases represent a larger portion of the expenditures of low-income households, these increases in price have a more substantial impact on the purchasing power of low-income households. This article describes the food inflation experiences of differen...
Food poisoning characteristics and patterns were studied in six vulnerable provinces of Indonesia to identify the typicality of food poisonings.Units of analysis were district level,gender,type of food,and place of events,using the data of incidence of food poisoning from 1987to 1998 period(ten year),Multivariate analysis and bi-plot technique were used to characterize the vulnerability of the areas based on the following variables:(1) time of symptom perceived,(2) number of cases for each kind of poison,(3) incidence of chemicals poisoning,and (4)incidence the microbial poisonings,It was found that the three provinces most vulnerable to food poisoning are Central Java,West Java and Jogyakarta.The causes of food poisoning incidence are microbial poisonings(49.36%),chemicals(24.50%),natural toxicant(4.66%),and other causes or indications(21.37%),The poisoning symptoms were perceived within 1.0-144 hrs with incubation time of 0.08 to 33.00 hrs after food intake,depedn on the type of poison.The type of foods that caused poisoning are family prepared foods(30.57%),preserved food(industrial products) (29.94%),food from catering services(21.66%),traditional foods(10.83%) and street foods(7.00%),WOmen are more vulnerable(67.84)than men(32.16%),The most vulnerable places for food poisoning are respectively at home(family)(44.16%),at workplaces (16.23%),party venue(14.29%),school(12.99%),and in public places(12.34%).The results lead to the urgent needs of a better formulation,more stringent food control policy and regulation at district levels,the use of different approach towards a more locally oriented food poisoning safety measures and actions.
Chang, Ming-Hsu; Chiou, Wen-Bin
When adjusting product prices, marketers wish information concerning consumers' price perceptions. The present study aimed to develop an optimal pricing framework for food products by applying Weber's Law and Stevens' Power Law in psychophysics. The first phase attempted to measure the differential thresholds when magnitudes of prices were raised and lowered. The second phase was conducted to establish the psychophysical function representing perceived changes. Analysis showed consumers' differential thresholds were positively correlated with the initial price, consistent with Weber's Law. Further, participants' perceived change differed for increased and decreased prices. Products were perceived as cheaper only when medium-and low-priced products dropped dramatically in price. However, small reductions for the high-priced products were perceived as cheaper. Regardless of price changes, participants perceived products were more expensive when prices dropped by a small PMID:17564240
Hansen, Henning Otte
Price transmission in the agri-food value chain - when changes in one price cause another price downstream to change - is an important issue for farmers, markets and the economy as an efficient market price setting is crucial for all market players. However, there are numerous examples of price...... imperfect price transmission, to determine some of the underlying causes and driving forces behind the phenomenon as well as highlight farmers’ interests, role and opportunities in connection with ensuring more effective price transmission. On the basis of an example of a grain-bread value chain, it is...... apparent that the price increases downstream occur relatively quickly and are significant, while the price decreases become smaller and significantly slower as one moves forward in the value chain. Both lags and asymmetric price transmission are present. The example also shows that bread prices increase...
Solé-Ribalta, Albert; Arenas, Alex
The rapid growth of population in urban areas is jeopardizing the mobility and air quality worldwide. One of the most notable problems arising is that of traffic congestion which in turn affects air pollution. With the advent of technologies able to sense real-time data about cities, and its public distribution for analysis, we are in place to forecast scenarios valuable to ameliorate and control congestion. Here, we propose a local congestion pricing scheme, hotspot-pricing, that surcharges vehicles traversing congested junctions. The proposed tax is computed from the estimation of the evolution of congestion at local level, and the expected response of users to the tax (elasticity). Results on cities' road networks, considering real-traffic data, show that the proposed hotspot-pricing scheme would be more effective than current mechanisms to decongest urban areas, and paves the way towards sustainable congestion in urban areas.
Gordon-Larsen, Penny; Guilkey, David K.; Popkin, Barry M.
Background While dietary intake is shaped by cost, there is minimal research on the association between community-level food prices and dietary intake. Methods We used nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine how community-level food price variation was associated with individual-level fast food intake by race/ethnicity and income across waves II (1996) and III (2001–02) of The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health (n=11,088) from 158 baseline and 363 follow-up US counties. Results Negative binomial regression models predicting the number of fast food meals per week show strong relationships between fast food consumption and prices of fast food and soda that varied by gender and race/ethnicity. We found relatively stronger association between food prices and fast food intake for males and relatively greater price sensitivity for soda versus burgers. In the group with strongest associations (black males), a 20% increase in price of soda was associated with a decrease of a 0.25 visits to a fast food restaurant per week. Conclusions Economic incentives may be an effective mechanism to address fast food intake in an age group at high risk for obesity. PMID:21852178
Marco Lagi; Yavni Bar-Yam; Bertrand, Karla Z.; Yaneer Bar-Yam
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely impacting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the US, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time, we construct a dynamic model that quantita...
This study conducts the descriptive statistic analysis of food commercial prices, urban resident income and other relevant data in China’s 30 provinces from 2004 to 2013. The commercial food industry has high added value and comprehensive economic benefit so the commercial food industry is naturally a hot-spot issue. The core issue of the food is the price. The change trend and the difference feature of both the food commercial price and the urban resident income in those regions are revealed...
Tamkeen Khan; Powell, Lisa M.; Roy Wada
Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA), and contextual outlet density data from...
Brobakk, Jostein Tapper; Almås, Reidar
In early 2007 food prices started to increase dramatically, creating more hunger, social unrest, political protests, and a debate on causes and cures. According to the FAO, the number of people getting less food than necessary reached 1 billion. After a century of declining food prices, increased productivity and relative stability several curves started to shift. Due to production growth levelling out and a steady increase in the global demand for food, in addition to policy changes in the f...
This Bachelor thesis deals with the impact of price changing on consumers of organic food. The thesis is divided into two parts. The first part is theoretical and describes healthy food and organic food from production in organic farming to determination of the actual price of organic food on the market. The second part is practical and contains secondary and primary research. Primary research consists of structured interviews of respondents, the research probe and monitoring the monthly expe...
Full Text Available The impact of resources on social unrest is of increasing interest to political leaders, business and civil society. Recent events have highlighted that (lack of access to critical resources, including food, energy and water, can, in certain circumstances, lead to violent demonstrations. In this paper, we assess a number of political fragility indices to see whether they are good indicators of propensity to food riots. We found that the most accurate is the Political Instability and Absence of Violence Indicator of the Worldwide Governance Indicators by the World Bank. We compute a likelihood of experiencing a food riot for each quartile of this index. We found that the self-sufficiency of food does not seem to affect the likelihood of the occurrence of food riots, but that the level of political stability of a country does have a role. In addition, we identify a monthly and annual threshold for the Food and Agriculture Organisation Food Price Index, above which food riots in fragile states are more likely to occur.
Baltzer, Kenneth Thomas
This paper synthesizes the evidence on price transmission from international maize, rice and wheat markets to domestic markets in fourteen developing countries during the global food crisis in 2007-08. A great variation in the price transmission patterns is observed; from almost no price pass...
Lloyd, Tim; McCorriston, Steve; Morgan, C. W.; Rayner, A.J.
This paper considers the impact of 'food scares', predominately concerns relating to BSE, on UK beef prices at retail, wholesale and producer levels over the 1990s. Acknowledging the co-movement that exists between prices in the meat marketing chain, we use a co-integrating framework, the results of which show the importance of publicity regarding the safety of food in the transmission of beef prices in the UK. The 'food publicity' index that we use has a marked negative impact on the prices ...
Sorting out the impacts of biofuels on global agricultural commodity prices is impossible without turning to data and distinguishing between the short-run versus the long-run impacts. Using time-series prices on fuels and agricultural commodities, the aim is to investigate the long-run cointegration of these prices simultaneously with their multivariate short-run interactions. Results indicate no direct long-run price relations between fuel and agricultural commodity prices, and limited if any direct short-run relationships. In terms of short-run price movements, sugar prices are influencing all the other agricultural commodity prices except rice. With sugar the number one world input for ethanol, results indicate increased ethanol production is potentially influencing short-run agricultural commodity prices. Overall, results support the effect of agricultural commodity prices as market signals which restore commodity markets to their equilibria after a demand or supply event (shock).
Ndungu Mukasa, Adamon
This thesis contains four closely related essays which address the empirical issues pertaining to the causes, consequences, and households’ responses to food price shocks in Uganda. The first essay investigates the nature of volatilities in agricultural commodity prices in Uganda between 2000 and 2012 by focusing on six key food staples, namely matooke, cassava, maize, sweet potatoes, beans, and millet flour. It studies the behavior of monthly price volatilities of these commodities, examines...
Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.
This paper uses a Mean-Variance utility function to build a dual model that simultaneously determines area allocation and production/input levels under output price uncertainty. Regularity conditions of the indirect utility function (convexity) and producers risk preferences are tested. The framewor
Full Text Available In the Republic of Serbia, food accounts for a significant share in the consumer price index through which the inflation is statistically expressed. Therefore, in considerations of the basic factors of increase in the general price level, a special emphasis is placed on the specific features of the market of agricultural-food products. The aim of this research is to peruse the effect of the characteristics of the food market in Serbia on the inflation rate. High volatility of food prices is present because of the instability of this market, mainly due to seasonal fluctuations of supply and the effect of natural factors. Bearing in mind that the increase in food prices is the main determinant of the increase in the inflation rate, the indirect state control is very important so as to maintain price stability. Special importance is attached to the following instruments of economic policy: commodity reserves, storage policy, and fiscal and foreign trade policy.
... Agricultural Marketing Service Milk in the Northeast and Other Marketing Areas; Determination of Equivalent Price Series AGENCY: Agricultural Marketing Service, USDA. ACTION: Determination of equivalent price... products price series in the Dairy Products Sales report released by the Agricultural Marketing...
Khan, Tamkeen; Powell, Lisa M.; Wada, Roy
Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA), and contextual outlet density data from Dun and Bradstreet (D&B). The results found that contextual factors including the price of fast food, median household income, and fast food restaurant outlet densities were significantly associated with fast food consumption patterns among this age group. Overall, a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with 5.7% lower frequency of weekly fast food consumption. These results suggest that public health policy pricing instruments such as taxes may be effective in reducing consumption of energy-dense foods and possibly reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity among US children and young adolescents. PMID:22292115
Full Text Available Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K, price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA, and contextual outlet density data from Dun and Bradstreet (D&B. The results found that contextual factors including the price of fast food, median household income, and fast food restaurant outlet densities were significantly associated with fast food consumption patterns among this age group. Overall, a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with 5.7% lower frequency of weekly fast food consumption. These results suggest that public health policy pricing instruments such as taxes may be effective in reducing consumption of energy-dense foods and possibly reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity among US children and young adolescents.
Khan, Tamkeen; Powell, Lisa M; Wada, Roy
Fast food consumption is a dietary factor associated with higher prevalence of childhood obesity in the United States. The association between food prices and consumption of fast food among 5th and 8th graders was examined using individual-level random effects models utilizing consumption data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Class of 1998-99 (ECLS-K), price data from American Chamber of Commerce Researchers Association (ACCRA), and contextual outlet density data from Dun and Bradstreet (D&B). The results found that contextual factors including the price of fast food, median household income, and fast food restaurant outlet densities were significantly associated with fast food consumption patterns among this age group. Overall, a 10% increase in the price of fast food was associated with 5.7% lower frequency of weekly fast food consumption. These results suggest that public health policy pricing instruments such as taxes may be effective in reducing consumption of energy-dense foods and possibly reducing the prevalence of overweight and obesity among US children and young adolescents. PMID:22292115
Sexton, Richard J.; Xia, Tian; Li, Lan
This paper examines grocery retailers' ability to influence prices charged to consumers and paid to suppliers. We discuss how retailer market power manifests itself in terms of pricing and marketing strategies by setting forth and offering evidence in support of eight "stylized facts" of retailer pricing and brand decisions. We argue that little, if any, of this behavior can be explained by a model of a competitive, price-taking retailer, but that most of the indicated behavior was also incon...
Hou, Xiaohui; Hong, Seo Yeon
Using a panel survey, this paper investigates how the increase in food prices in Pakistan in 2008-2010 affected children's school enrollment and labor. The causal identification relies on geographical variations in the price of food (wheat). The results show that the negative impacts of food price increase on school enrollment differ by gender, economic status, and the presence of siblings...
Martin-Prével, Yves; Becquey, Elodie; Tapsoba, S.; Castan, F; Coulibaly, D.; Fortin, Sonia; Zoungrana, M.; Lange, M.; Delpeuch, Francis; Savy, Mathilde
Although the 2008 food price crisis presumably plunged millions of households into poverty and food insecurity, the real impact of the crisis has rarely been documented using field data. Our objective was to assess the consequences of this crisis for household food insecurity and dietary diversity in urban Burkina Faso. Two cross-sectional surveys were conducted among randomly selected households in Ouagadougou in July 2007 (n = 3017) and July 2008 (n = 3002). At each round, food insecurity a...
Garcia-Fuentes, Pablo A.; Ferreira, Gustavo F.C.; Harrison, R. Wes; Kinsey, Jean D.; Degeneffe, Dennis J.
A series of recent and serious food safety incidents have generated a national debate over the significant costs that they impose on various stakeholders - consumers, industry, or the government. This paper examines the impact of media coverage of food safety and defense issues on consumer confidence in food safety, and measures the response of stock prices of food companies to changes in consumer confidence. Results show that, increases in media coverage have a negative impact on consumer co...
By expanding energy biomass production on marginal lands that are not currently used for crops, food prices increase and indirect climate change effects can be mitigated. Studies of the availability of marginal lands for dedicated bioenergy crops have focused on biophysical land traits, ignoring the human role in decisions to convert marginal land to bioenergy crops. Recent history offers insights about farmer willingness to put non-crop land into crop production. The 2006-09 leap in field crop prices and the attendant 64% gain in typical profitability led to only a 2% increase in crop planted area, mostly in the prairie states. At this rate, a doubling of expected profitability from biomass crops would expand cropland supply by only 3.2%. Yet targets for cellulosic ethanol production in the US Energy Independence and Security Act imply boosting US planted area by 10% or more with perennial biomass crops. Given landowner reluctance to expand crop area with familiar crops in the short run, large scale expansion of the area in dedicated bioenergy crops will likely be difficult and costly to achieve. - Highlights: → Biofuel crops on cropland can displace food crops, reducing food supply and triggering indirect land use. → Growing biofuel crops on non-crop marginal land avoids these problems. → But US farmers expanded cropland by only 2% when crop profitability jumped 64% during 2006-09. → So medium-term availability of marginal lands for biofuel crops is limited and costly.
This paper reflects the econometric modeling between 2000-2013, in Romania, concerning the Consumer Prices Index for food goods, the Consumer Prices Index for non-food goods and the Consumer Prices Index for services, through by means of the „Least Squares Method”. The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) reflects the change of price concerning the basket of goods that it is supposed to be purchased by a urban consumers in terms of the expenses incurred by a typical household.
Arndt, Channing; Jones, Edward Samuel; Salvucci, Vincenzo
Changes in relative prices of commodities consumed in different shares across income groups can be expected to alter real income differentials between these groups. Using Mozambican household budget survey and price data from 2002/03 and 2008/09, we show that once relative price increases are...... accounted for, inequality of real consumption increases substantially. We obtain this result by constructing a price deflator that reflects divergent price dynamics of different product categories. Since the main factors driving this result prevail in other developing countries, it is likely that inequality...
Measures in Dutch nature areas to combat desiccation of nature areas often have effects on surrounding agricultural lands, or buffer areas. Generally, these soils become moister, which can lead to lower yields for most common crops. Cultivation of the flooding-tolerant energy crop willow may be an alternative. In this study, the performance of willow production is compared to that of grass for roughage, in buffer areas as well as in a hydrologically optimal situation. Financial consequences are evaluated by calculating the biomass price that makes willow equally competitive to grass (break-even). The effect of high groundwater tables on yields of both crops is estimated using the agro-hydrological model SWAP. The calculated price that gives break-even between willow and grass is lower on wet soils than in a hydrologically optimal situation. At a groundwater table class of II, a groundwater situation quite common in buffer areas, this break-even price is 20% lower. The physical yield of willow is lower than its optimum, but grass yields decrease stronger, making willow more competitive. The biomass price in a hydrologically optimal situation, as calculated in this study, is comparable to values found in other studies. However, this comparison is complicated by differences in assumptions in the cost calculations, and by the fact that grass as roughage has less value added than food crops such as potatoes and wheat. This study contains considerable uncertainties with respect to the data used and the methodology. A sensitivity analysis shows that several parameters with a strong influence on the biomass price have low uncertainties. An uncertain value with strong influence is the optimal willow yield, which could not be estimated on practical data. Methodological limitations of the study, both in the economic comparison between willow and grass and in the yield estimations, are also discussed. 50 refs
We develop an analytical framework to assess the market effects of alternative biofuel policies (including subsidies to feedstocks). U.S. corn-ethanol policies are used as an example to study the effects on corn prices. We determine the ‘no policy’ ethanol price; analyze the implications for the ‘no policy’ corn price and resulting ‘water’ in the ethanol price premium due to policy; and generalize the unique interaction effects between mandates and tax credits to include ethanol and corn prod...
Connor, John M.; Peterson, Everett B.
This paper estimates the relationships between market structure and the Lerner index of monopoly constructed from price data on processed food products sold through grocery stores. A theoretical model of a differentiated oligopoly specifies two determinants of price-cost margins: the Herfindahl-Hirschman index of seller concentration adjusted for the elasticity of demand and the industry advertising-to-sales ratio. The results indicate that the three principal determinants of price-cost margi...
Schwartz, Jordan; Guasch, Jose Luis; Wilmsmeier, Gordon; Stokenberga, Aiga
This introductory section explains the rationale for the guidance note, reflecting on the relevance of food prices in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), their impact on the poor and the effect that logistics and transport costs have on those prices. Based upon that framework, the note provides an overview of the logistics and transport hurdles faced by importers and consumers in the re...
Lesser, William H.; Bryant, W. Keith
A method is developed for estimating returns to food price reporting and store selection preference changing programs. The approach is demonstrated by an example. While the extimated return to preference changing is small, the direct savings for price reporting can be substantial. Further replications are required to verify these results.
‘Healthier food product’ has experienced a rapid growth rate in recent years in U.S. because of the increasing consumer demand for healthier and environmental friendlier lifestyle. This analysis is looking for price discrimination evidences by comparing price cost margins of regular food products and healthier food products. Price cost margins are computed by solving firms' profit maximization problem and relevant parameters are estimated from consumers' choice decisions. Specifically, price ...
Herrmann, Roland; Möser, Anke
In many industrialized countries, the grocery-retailing sector exhibits a strong and increasing market concentration. Hence, it is important to understand retail pricing for many questions related to market power in the marketing chain and to agricultural and food policies. We analyze intertemporal pricing of grocery retailers in Germany with a large set of scanner data for processed foods. In theory, food prices could be rather variable, e.g. due to fluctuating commodity prices in a competit...
BANTERLE Alessandro; Carraresi, Laura; Cavaliere, Alessia
Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) are fighting for survival due to globalization, growing competition with big retailers, and strategies adopted by large industrial companies. Difficulties in pricing are also revealed in the literature. Therefore, appropriate activity is needed to be more a price maker than a taker, and to reach a better market power. On the other hand, market opportunities for SMEs are related to demand evolution toward food quality and traditional food products. To ...
Kwon, Dae-Heum; Koo, Won W.
The recent concurrent surges of food and commodity prices renew the debate on the causal directions between producer and consumer prices. To address this issue, we utilize the stage of processing system incorporating retail stage beyond crude, intermediate, and finished processing stages of food and employ the method proposed by Toda and Yamamoto (1995) and Dolado and Lütkepohl (1996) of Granger causality tests. The overall results show that consistent with theory of derived demand, the deman...
Cai, Yongxia; Beach, Robert H.; Zhang, Yuquan
Efforts to satisfy global energy demand and improve food security while simultaneously taking action to mitigate climate change pose many key challenges for the world. In this study, the Applied Dynamic Analysis of the Global Economy (ADAGE), a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, is applied to examine the impact of oil price on biofuel expansion, and subsequently, on food supply/price, land use change and climate mitigation potential, when both first and second generation biofuel feed...
Ben Groom; Mehroosh Tak
During the world food crisis of 2007-08, the price of staples soared rapidly. Higher food price impacts poor households more as they spend approximately three quarters of their income on food. Together rice and wheat provide more than 50% of the calorific intake in India. Apart from providing food security, millions of poor and small farmers depend on rice for their livelihoods. Using Indian Consumer Household Expenditure surveys for the years 2007-08 and 2009-10 the paper analyses the welfar...
Todd, Jessica E.; Mancino, Lisa; Leibtag, Ephraim S.; Tripodo, Christina
This report provides a detailed description of the methodology used to construct ERS’s Quarterly Food-at-Home Price Database (Q-FAHPD). As the name suggest, these data provide quarterly observations on the mean price of 52 food categories for specific U.S. markets. We provide a description of the Nielsen Homescan data that was used to create this database, the methodology used to classify foods into food groups, how we determined the appropriate the level of aggregation (sub-regional markets)...
The growth of corn-based ethanol production and soybean-based bio-diesel production following the increase in the oil prices have significantly affect the world agricultural grain productions and its prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate the relationships between the crude oil price and the global grain prices for corn, soybean, and wheat. The empirical results show that the change in each grain price is significantly influenced by the changes in the crude oil price and other grain prices during the period extending from the 3rd week in 2005 to the 20th week in 2008 which implies that grain commodities are competing with the derived demand for bio-fuels by using soybean or corn to produce ethanol or bio-diesel during the period of higher crude oil prices in these recent years. The subsidy policies in relation to the bio-fuel industries in some nations engaging in bio-fuel production should be considered to avoid the consequences resulting from high oil prices. (author)
Cliona Ni Mhurchu
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Targeted food pricing policies may improve population diets. To assess their effects on inequalities, it is important to determine responsiveness to price changes across income levels and ethnic groups. OBJECTIVE: Our goal was to estimate price elasticity (PE values for major commonly consumed food groups in New Zealand, by income and ethnicity. PE values represent percentage change in demand associated with 1% change in price of that good (own-PE or another good (cross-PE. DESIGN: We used food expenditure data from national household economic surveys in 2007/08 and 2009/10 and Food Price Index data from 2007 and 2010. Adopting an Almost Ideal Demand System approach, own-PE and cross-PE estimates were derived for 24 food categories, household income quintiles, and two ethnic groups (Māori and non-Māori. RESULTS: Own-PE estimates (with two exceptions ranged from -0.44 to -1.78. Cross-PE estimates were generally small; only 31% of absolute values were greater than 0.10. Excluding the outlier 'energy drinks', nine of 23 food groups had significantly stronger own-PEs for the lowest versus highest income quintiles (average regression-based difference across food groups -0.30 (95% CI -0.62 to 0.02. Six own-PEs were significantly stronger among Māori; the average difference for Māori: non-Māori across food groups was -0.26 (95% CI -0.52 to 0.00. CONCLUSIONS: Food pricing policies have potential to improve population diets. The greater sensitivity of low-income households and Māori to price changes suggests the beneficial effects of such policies on health would be greatest for these groups.
O. E. Ayinde
Full Text Available The study analyzed the price behavior of major staple foods in West Africa taking Nigeria as a case study (1966 – 2011. It described the trend of the major staple food prices and examined the linear relationship and interdependence of the major staple food prices in Nigeria. Secondary data were used for this study. The sources were; Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO, and National Bureau of Statistics (NBS. These data were transformed from their nominal value to real value and analyzed using descriptive statistics, unit root test, Pearson correlation coefficient, granger-causality test and structural equation model. The study revealed that the prices of most of the major staple foods were at the maximum value between 1991 and 1993 while their prices were at the minimum value between 1978 and 1983. The study observed that the price of cowpea is most volatile seconded by maize. The results of the unit root test showed that all the variables studied were stationary. The prices of the major staple foods were linearly correlated; some were positively correlated while some were negatively correlated. Granger-causality test on the major staple foods prices showed that the prices of most staple foods were unidirectional while only few were bi-directional. The study further revealed that the prices of staple foods were interdependent. The study recommends political stability in the country as the major staple food prices reached maximum level during the period of 1993 presidential election crisis.
Charles I. Abramson
Full Text Available The study of alcohol abuse is relatively new in Brazil. Government estimates suggest that 11.2% of the Brazilian population is alcohol dependent. Problems associated with alcohol dependence include domestic violence, increased risk of traffic accidents, poor self-esteem and weak academic performance. A factor known to correlate with alcohol abuse in 12-17 year olds is to have the money necessary to purchase alcoholic beverages. No data is available, however, on the price of alcoholic beverages. The objective of the present study was to provide data on price and to compare the price of alcoholic beverages to basic food items in the Brazilian diet. We also had interest in studying a population in the northeast region of Brazil. This region is the poorest in Brazil, has the highest percentage of alcohol dependency and is seldom the focus of research on dependency. We report that the prices of many alcoholic beverages are less than the price of basic food items. Prices of alcoholic beverages including beer, wine and spirits were compared to the prices of select food items as represented in the Food Pyramid. Food items were selected from the categories of Grain, Dairy, Fruit, Meat and Vegetable. Data was gathered from 32 supermarkets in 8 cities in the northeast state of Paraiba. The price of alcohol is generally less expensive than most basic food group items, especially brands of cachaça (a spirit distilled from sugar cane and beer. Data on price should be considered in any alcohol dependency program in Brazil.
Full Text Available This papers investigated form of the linkage beetwen crude oil price index and food price index, using Johansen Cointegration test, and Granger Causality by VECM. Empirical results for monthly data from 1990:01 to 2011:08 indicated that evidence for breaks after 2008:08 and 2008:11. We find a clear long-run relationship between these series for the full and sub sample. Cointegration regression coefficient is negative at the 1990:01-2008:08 time period, but adversely positive at the 2008:11-2011:08 time period. This results represent that relation between crude oil and food price chanced.
With the development of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries in the world more and more closely, prices and the exchange rate are the core economic variables in an open economy. In this study, we make a statistical analysis of RMB real effective exchange rate and agricultural food prices data from the year of 1990 to 2014. From the empirical analysis, the result shows that RMB real effective exchange rate will effect on agricultural food prices. LnREER at lag 1 period i...
Kritika Mathur; Nidhi Kaicker; Raghav Gaiha; Katsushi Imai; Ganesh Thapa
Recent literature points towards the role of speculators in exaggerating the rally in food prices, over and above that explained by the fundamentals of demand and supply. Some studies argue that futures market speculation can only be blamed for the increasing food prices if it is accompanied by hoarding. With this background, the issues that the present chapter deals with are: (i) assessing the impact of indices such as S&P500, and MSCI on commodity prices; and (ii) tracing the volatility pat...
Kreidenweis, Ulrich; Humpenöder, Florian; Stevanović, Miodrag; Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon; Kriegler, Elmar; Lotze-Campen, Hermann; Popp, Alexander
Ambitious climate targets, such as the 2 °C target, are likely to require the removal of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. Afforestation is one such mitigation option but could, through the competition for land, also lead to food prices hikes. In addition, afforestation often decreases land-surface albedo and the amount of short-wave radiation reflected back to space, which results in a warming effect. In particular in the boreal zone, such biophysical warming effects following from afforestation are estimated to offset the cooling effect from carbon sequestration. We assessed the food price response of afforestation, and considered the albedo effect with scenarios in which afforestation was restricted to certain latitudinal zones. In our study, afforestation was incentivized by a globally uniform reward for carbon uptake in the terrestrial biosphere. This resulted in large-scale afforestation (2580 Mha globally) and substantial carbon sequestration (860 GtCO2) up to the end of the century. However, it was also associated with an increase in food prices of about 80% by 2050 and a more than fourfold increase by 2100. When afforestation was restricted to the tropics the food price response was substantially reduced, while still almost 60% cumulative carbon sequestration was achieved. In the medium term, the increase in prices was then lower than the increase in income underlying our scenario projections. Moreover, our results indicate that more liberalised trade in agricultural commodities could buffer the food price increases following from afforestation in tropical regions.
The US Agency for International Development funded the Caribbean Area Food Irradiation Feasibility Study (CAFI) through the US National Food Processors Association and with the collaboration of the US Department of Energy. This study focused on the economic, technical, financial, political and social feasibility of transferring food irradiation technology to the Caribbean area. The study focuses on three areas including the benefits to small farmers and nations interested in the export of crops, including non-traditional tropical commodities. The Feasibility Study Team conducted field work in Guatemala, Haiti, and Trinidad. The benefits of irradiation technology have been shown to have an impact particularly on the small farmer who is more capable of producing non-traditional crops intended for international export marketing. In Haiti, the anthropologists working on the CAFI study found that 74,000 individuals will be directly affected by the ban on the postharvest fumigant ethylene dibromide. Irradiation technology can not only provide the quarantine security needed to allow crops requiring quarantine treatment to move into international trade, but it can promote international co-operation in technology transfer. Training and safety issues related to the transfer, operation, and disposal of nuclear materials must be considered and point out the need for adequate regional co-operative programmes. Research and training programmes will be needed to augment the implementation of food irradiation processing by the private sector. Irradiation firms planning facilities in developing countries may need to provide crop production information, international marketing intelligence, and other assistance needed to integrate an irradiator into the overall postharvest food system. (author)
Meyler, Aidan [European Central Bank, Frankfurt am Main (Germany)
Crude and refined oil prices have been relatively high and volatile on a sustained basis since 1999. This paper considers the pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid (i.e. petrol, diesel and heating) fuel prices in such an environment. The pass through of oil prices into consumer liquid fuel prices has already been addressed extensively in the literature. Nonetheless much of this literature has either focused on the United States or on a time period when oil prices were relatively stable, or has used monthly data. The main contribution of this paper is a comprehensive combination of many features that have been considered before but rarely jointly. These features include: (1) the analysis of the euro area as an aggregate and a large number of countries (the initial 12 member states); (2) the consideration of different time periods; (3) the modelling of the data in raw levels rather than in log levels. This turns out to have important implications for our findings; (4) the use of high frequency (weekly) data, which, as results will suggest, are the lowest frequency one should consider; (5) the investigation of the different stages of the production chain from crude oil prices to retail distribution - refining costs and margins, distribution and retailing costs and margins; (6) the examination of prices including and excluding taxes - excise and value-added; (7) the modelling of prices for three fuel types - passenger car petrol and diesel separately and home heating fuel oil; (8) lastly we also address the issue of possible asymmetries, allowing for the pass through to vary according to (a) whether price are increasing or decreasing and (b) whether price levels are above or below their equilibrium level. The main findings are as follows: First, as distribution and retailing costs and margins have been broadly stable on average, the modelling of the relationship between consumer prices excluding taxes and upstream prices in raw levels rather than in
This study attempts to investigate the direction of casualty between food prices and money supply in the static and dynamic framework. We found that narrow measure of money supply (M1) Granger causes food inflation while broad measure of money supply (M3) does not in the static framework. This implies that money supply (M1) is not neutral in determining food prices in the long run in the Indian context. From the dynamic framework of analysis we found that any one innovation in the broad measu...
Coady, David; Dorosh, Paul; Minten, Bart
Higher world food prices have led many developing countries to adopt policies to mitigate the impact on low-income households. This article sets out a partial equilibrium framework to evaluate the efficiency, distributional, and revenue implications of alternative policy responses. The model is applied to evaluate tariff reductions and targeted transfers in Madagascar. Although lowering tariffs generates substantial efficiency gains, these accrue mainly to the top half of the welfare distribu...
Full Text Available In the food industry, price is an influential and a key factor in product brand positioning. This importance is even greater as the market analyzed is that of Romania. Since it is at the beginning of its relations with foreign markets compared to other countries, whether they are in the European Union or in Northern America, until a few years ago by Romanian consumers used to choose food products only based on the price and generally just buy the cheapest product, without taking into account other selection criteria. Now the market has developed, however, and there were many changes in behavior. This paper is a theoretical analysis on the influence of prices in the food market, the evolution of its importance due to the effects of the recession, the repercussions of changes in price and variation in behavior due to promotions. Preliminary results show that price is the main benefit by which consumers position food in their mind and that price promotions have an impact on positioning.
Mabuza, Majola Lawrence; Hendriks, Sheryl L.; Ortmann, Gerald F.; Sithole, M.M.
The objective of the study was to provide empirical evidence on whether food aid leads to depressed domestic maize prices and reduced maize production in subsequent years in Swaziland. The lack of empirical evidence has often resulted in premature negative conclusions about the impact of food aid on Swazilandâ€™s maize industry. The study used secondary national data from 1985 to 2006. Variables used in the statistical analysis included quantity of cereal food aid; quantity of commercial maiz...
Jayne, Thomas S.; Jones, Stephen P.
This study surveys the empirical record of grain marketing and pricing policy in selected Eastern and Southern Africa countries. The paper addresses five key issues with major implications for food policy in Africa: (a) why the anticipated supply response to market liberalization has not yet occurred; (b) why the common assumption of state taxation of farmers to support a cheap food policy does not apply in most of these countries; (c) why the temporary successes of the state-led approach to ...
Full Text Available India is experiencing high rate of economic growth in the last two decades but the growth has been coupled with high rate of food price inflation. The growth has been very uneven across sectors with agriculture remaining very sluggish. The increase in per capita income has significantly increased the demand for food but agricultural production has failed to keep pace with the growing demand. The theoretical explanations and time series econometric results establish that increase in per capita income and shortage in supply are responsible for price rise. There is no long run relationship between money supply and agricultural price. Increasing public expenditure and unfavorable foreign exchange rate have some effects on price although the results are not robust.
This paper uses a model of import prices whereby exporters to the euro area set export prices partly as a mark-up on their production costs (i.e., the degree of exchange rate pass-through) and partly in line with euro area producer prices (i.e., pricing-to-market). Using both time series and panel estimation techniques, the econometric results suggest that the pass through of changes in the effective exchange rate of the euro to the price of extra-euro area imports of manufactures is around 5...
This paper explores the impacts of China's growth in the international markets of agricultural products. These impacts are important because they are related to two different ongoing discussions about the role of China in the world economy. One of these discussions have to do with China as a source of price inflation while the other has to do with China as an engine of growth for developing countries, in this case, through increased export opportunities. Our results suggest that China has bee...
Krištoufek, Ladislav; Janda, K.; Zilberman, D.
Roč. 8, č. 3 (2014), s. 362-373. ISSN 1932-104X Grant ostatní: GA ČR(CZ) GAP402/11/0948 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : biofuels * price transmission * non-linearity * elasticity Subject RIV: AH - Economics Impact factor: 4.214, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/E/kristoufek-0433525.pdf
Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Food pricing strategies have been proposed to encourage healthy eating habits, which may in turn help stem global increases in non-communicable diseases. This systematic review of simulation studies investigates the estimated association between food pricing strategies and changes in food purchases or intakes (consumption (objective 1; Health and disease outcomes (objective 2, and whether there are any differences in these outcomes by socio-economic group (objective 3. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Electronic databases, Internet search engines, and bibliographies of included studies were searched for articles published in English between 1 January 1990 and 24 October 2011 for countries in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development. Where ≥ 3 studies examined the same pricing strategy and consumption (purchases or intake or health outcome, results were pooled, and a mean own-price elasticity (own-PE estimated (the own-PE represents the change in demand with a 1% change in price of that good. Objective 1: pooled estimates were possible for the following: (1 taxes on carbonated soft drinks: own-PE (n = 4 studies, -0.93 (range, -0.06, -2.43, and a modelled -0.02% (-0.01%, -0.04% reduction in energy (calorie intake for each 1% price increase (n = 3 studies; (2 taxes on saturated fat: -0.02% (-0.01%, -0.04% reduction in energy intake from saturated fat per 1% price increase (n = 5 studies; and (3 subsidies on fruits and vegetables: own-PE (n = 3 studies, -0.35 (-0.21, -0.77. Objectives 2 and 3: variability of food pricing strategies and outcomes prevented pooled analyses, although higher quality studies suggested unintended compensatory purchasing that could result in overall effects being counter to health. Eleven of 14 studies evaluating lower socio-economic groups estimated that food pricing strategies would be associated with pro-health outcomes. Food pricing strategies also have the potential to reduce
Full Text Available With the development of economic globalization, the economic ties between countries in the world more and more closely, prices and the exchange rate are the core economic variables in an open economy. In this study, we make a statistical analysis of RMB real effective exchange rate and agricultural food prices data from the year of 1990 to 2014. From the empirical analysis, the result shows that RMB real effective exchange rate will effect on agricultural food prices. LnREER at lag 1 period increased one percentage can drive LnAFP growth by 0.015%; LnREER at lag 2 period increased one percentage can drive LnAFP growth by 0.187%, so the effect of RMB real effective exchange rate on agricultural food prices is obvious. Based on granger causality test, it shows that LnREER is the granger reason to LnAFP, which means RMB real effective exchange rate is the reason to agricultural food prices increase. On this basis, we have put forward relevant policy suggestions.
Australian consumers (N=221) were surveyed to establish their valuations of food, based on country of origin, organic status and eco-labelling. The effect of consumer education level on the valuation of Organic and Certified Organic food is reported. Respondents who reported completing secondary or tertiary education had a similar response style, valuing Certified Organic at approximately twice the premium of Organic. The secondary education group valued Organic at a premium of 6.2%, and Cert...
In the food industry, price is an influential and a key factor in product brand positioning. This importance is even greater as the market analyzed is that of Romania. Since it is at the beginning of its relations with foreign markets compared to other countries, whether they are in the European Union or in Northern America, until a few years ago by Romanian consumers used to choose food products only based on the price and generally just buy the cheapest product, without taking into account ...
Davide Furceri; Prakash Loungani; John Simon; Susan Wachter
This paper provides a broad brush look at the impact of fluctuations in global food prices on domestic inflation in a large group of countries. For advanced economies, we find that these fluctuations have played a significant role over the period from 1960 to the present, but the impact has declined over time and become less persistent. We also find that the more recent global food price shocks occurred in the 2000s had a much bigger impact on emerging than on advanced economies. This larger ...
Basch, Corey Hannah; Ethan, Danna; Rajan, Sonali
Legislation in NYC requires chain restaurants to post calorie information on menu boards in an effort to help consumers make more informed decisions about food and beverage items they are purchasing. While this is a step in the right direction in light of the current obesity epidemic, there are other issues that warrant attention in a fast food setting, namely the pricing of healthy food options, promotional strategies, and access to comprehensive nutrition information. This study focused on a popular fast-food chain in NYC. The study’s aims were threefold: (1) to determine the cost differential between the healthiest meal item on the chain’s general menu and meal items available specifically on a reduced cost menu for one dollar (US$1.00); (2) to identify and describe the promotions advertised in the windows of these restaurants, as well as the nutrition content of promoted items; and (3) to ascertain availability of comprehensive nutrition information to consumers within the restaurants. We found the healthiest meal item to be significantly higher in price than less nutritious meal items available for $1.00 (t = 146.9, p < .001), with the mean cost differential equal to $4.33 (95% CI $4.27, $4.39). Window promotions generally advertised less healthful menu items, which may aid in priming customers to purchase these versus more healthful options. Comprehensive nutrition information beyond calorie counts was not readily accessible prior to purchasing. In addition to improving access to comprehensive nutrition information, advertising more of and lowering the prices of nutritious options may encourage consumers to purchase healthier foods in a fast food setting. Additional research in this area is needed in other geographic locations and restaurant chains. PMID:24171876
Basch, Corey Hannah; Ethan, Danna; Rajan, Sonali
Legislation in NYC requires chain restaurants to post calorie information on menu boards in an effort to help consumers make more informed decisions about food and beverage items they are purchasing. While this is a step in the right direction in light of the current obesity epidemic, there are other issues that warrant attention in a fast food setting, namely the pricing of healthy food options, promotional strategies, and access to comprehensive nutrition information. This study focused on a popular fast-food chain in NYC. The study's aims were threefold: (1) to determine the cost differential between the healthiest meal item on the chain's general menu and meal items available specifically on a reduced cost menu for one dollar (US$1.00); (2) to identify and describe the promotions advertised in the windows of these restaurants, as well as the nutrition content of promoted items; and (3) to ascertain availability of comprehensive nutrition information to consumers within the restaurants. We found the healthiest meal item to be significantly higher in price than less nutritious meal items available for $1.00 (t=146.9, padvertised less healthful menu items, which may aid in priming customers to purchase these versus more healthful options. Comprehensive nutrition information beyond calorie counts was not readily accessible prior to purchasing. In addition to improving access to comprehensive nutrition information, advertising more of and lowering the prices of nutritious options may encourage consumers to purchase healthier foods in a fast food setting. Additional research in this area is needed in other geographic locations and restaurant chains. PMID:24171876
Tiku, N.E.; Uduak, O.O.; Ini-mfon, V.P.
The aim of this study was to analyze palm oil prices in Ini Local Government Area of Akwa Ibom State, Nigeria. Palm oil is a major agricultural commodity that is highly commercialized in the Nigeria and has suffered various economic impacts cardinally is the price volatility. In consideration of palm oil price stability, trend analysis, seasonality, cyclical and irregular elements of price volatility were determined. Data were obtained through structured questionnaires administered to 160 ran...
Fröhling, Annette; Lommatzsch, Kirsten
We investigate output sensitivity of inflation in the euro area through a disaggregated analysis using price indices at the COICOP 4-digit level and compare cyclical sensitivity of a newly created index of cyclically sensitive items (ICSP) with that of headline HICP and core price indices. We also relate the ICSP to the first common factor extracted from the disaggregated prices, which best reflects the common dynamics of the underlying price indices. Our results indicate that two thirds of t...
Ciaian, Pavel; Kancs, d' Artis [European Commission (DG Joint Research Centre), Catholic University of Leuven (LICOS), and Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), B-1049 Brussels (Belgium)
The present paper studies the interdependencies between the energy, bioenergy and food prices. We develop a vertically integrated multi-input, multi-output market model with two channels of price transmission: a direct biofuel channel and an indirect input channel. We test the theoretical hypothesis by applying time-series analytical mechanisms to nine major traded agricultural commodity prices, including corn, wheat, rice, sugar, soybeans, cotton, banana, sorghum and tea, along with one weighted average world crude oil price. The data consists of 783 weekly observations extending from January 1994 to December 2008. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical hypothesis that the prices for crude oil and agricultural commodities are interdependent including also commodities not directly used in bioenergy production: an increase in oil price by 1 $/barrel increases the agricultural commodity prices between 0.10 $/tonne and 1.80 $/tonne. Contrary to the theoretical predictions, the indirect input channel of price transmission is found to be small and statistically insignificant. (author)
This paper analyzes the factors behind the recent trends in food commodity prices, especially the question to what extent the price hikes are caused by fundamentals. Some of the main determinants have been identified and classified in ongoing studies. Based on this categorization, a basic supply and demand model for food commodity markets is developed in this paper that includes two arguments. One is that the growth rate of notional food demand differs from the growth rate of food supply. Con...
India is experiencing high rate of economic growth in the last two decades but the growth has been coupled with high rate of food price inflation. The growth has been very uneven across sectors with agriculture remaining very sluggish. The increase in per capita income has significantly increased the demand for food but agricultural production has failed to keep pace with the growing demand. The theoretical explanations and time series econometric results establish that increase in per capita...
Full Text Available It is widely recognized that inflation as a monetary phenomenon is determined by money supply changes. In the short run, however, several factors may lead to inflation rate differentials among different regions in the same country or among different countries in a monetary union. This paper examines the mean reversion attitude of food price inflation rates in the Euro zone, borrowing the concepts and developments from the recent growth literature and using panel unit root tests. Additionally, in order to capture sufficiently the evolving distributional dynamics, nonparametric econometric methods are also implemented. Finally, the comovement of the inflation rates among different food subgroups is also explored. The data consist of monthly observations of the EU harmonized consumer price indices of food and three different food subgroups (meat, bread and cereals, and vegetables for the 12 older member states of the Euro zone, covering the period from 1997 to 2010. The results do not fully support the hypothesis of the food price inflation rates convergence for the whole period under investigation. Mean reversion shows up in different time periods and in different food categories. Moreover, the analysis of distribution dynamics sheds light to different aspects of convergence and highlights processes like club formation and polarization.
McKay, Andy; Tarp, Finn
Agriculture and food cultivation production remains a key sector in the Vietnamese economy in terms of productive activities, income generation, and national export earnings. Higher world market prices should therefore in principle have a beneficial impact on rural farmers. This is based however on...
Setiawan, M.; Emvalomatis, G.; Oude Lansink, A.G.J.M.
This article investigates trends in industrial concentration and its relationship with the price-cost margin in 54 subsectors of the Indonesian food and beverages sector in the period 1995 to 2006. This study uses firm-level survey data provided by the Indonesian Bureau of Central Statistics (BPS),
Bunte, F.H.J.; Galen, van, P.L.J.; Kuiper, W.E.; Bakker, J.H.
This report determines how sensitive consumer demand for organic products is to changes in the prices of organic products. The report is based on the analysis of scanner data for supermarkets in ten Dutch communities. In the framework of the analysis, an experiment has been performed in which the prices of organic products have been reduced below current price levels. The report shows that consumer demand for organic food is sensitive to changes in consumer prices. However, for five out of ei...
Australian consumers (N=221) were surveyed to establish their valuations of food, based on provenance, organic status and eco-labelling. For Chinese produce "Organic" attracted a 6.4% premium, and "Certified Organic" a 11.6% premium. This compares to Australian produce which attracted a 7.9% premium for "Organic", and a 16.5% premium for "Certified Organic". For Chinese produce "Natural" added a 1.7% premium and "Eco" a 2.9% premium, compared to Australian produce which added a 2.6% premium f...
Rafael Portillo; Luis-Felipe Zanna
We develop a tractable small open-economy model to study the first-round effects of international food price shocks in developing countries. We define first-round effects as changes in headline inflation that, holding core inflation constant, help implement relative price adjustments. The model features three goods (food, a generic traded good and a non-traded good), varying degrees of tradability of the food basket, and alternative international asset market structures (complete and incomple...
Dai, Jiawu; Li, Xun; Wang, Xiuqing; Yu, Qiushuo; Mao, Xiaojie
Pork market, as one of the most important food markets in China, is frequently exposed to food scare events such as Porcine Reproductive & Respiratory Syndrome (PRRS), Swine Influenza (SI), and Classical Swine Fever (CSF). This research first investigates the impact of food scare incidents on pork market in China with a theoretical framework, proving that if there is no market power, farm-retail price spread should be a function of marketing cost only. Using monthly data of pork retail price ...
Livanis, Grigorios T.; Moss, Charles B.
The advent of mad cow disease in Canada in the United States raises numerous concerns regarding consumer reaction to information in the United States. To examine the role of consumer reaction to information we examine the response of price spreads in the U.S. beef market to a Food Safety Index derived from Lexis-Nexis. Specifically, we estimate a vector error correction model to examine the long and short-run effect of news on price spreads. Our results indicate that informational shocks are ...
Pilar Tavella; Andrew Powell; Eduardo Lora
There is widespread concern that recent increases in international food prices may have significant effects on domestic food prices and inflation. This note assesses the impact of the recent food price shock on food, non-food and consumer inflation in the countries of Latin American and the Caribbean (LAC). Vector Autoregressive Regressions (VARs) are estimated for each country to trace the effect of international food prices, the price of oil and the value of the US dollar on domestic prices...
Lagi, Marco; Bar-Yam, Yavni; Bertrand, Karla Z; Bar-Yam, Yaneer
Recent increases in basic food prices are severely affecting vulnerable populations worldwide. Proposed causes such as shortages of grain due to adverse weather, increasing meat consumption in China and India, conversion of corn to ethanol in the United States, and investor speculation on commodity markets lead to widely differing implications for policy. A lack of clarity about which factors are responsible reinforces policy inaction. Here, for the first time to our knowledge, we construct a dynamic model that quantitatively agrees with food prices. The results show that the dominant causes of price increases are investor speculation and ethanol conversion. Models that just treat supply and demand are not consistent with the actual price dynamics. The two sharp peaks in 2007/2008 and 2010/2011 are specifically due to investor speculation, whereas an underlying upward trend is due to increasing demand from ethanol conversion. The model includes investor trend following as well as shifting between commodities, equities, and bonds to take advantage of increased expected returns. Claims that speculators cannot influence grain prices are shown to be invalid by direct analysis of price-setting practices of granaries. Both causes of price increase, speculative investment and ethanol conversion, are promoted by recent regulatory changes-deregulation of the commodity markets, and policies promoting the conversion of corn to ethanol. Rapid action is needed to reduce the impacts of the price increases on global hunger. PMID:26504216
The paper provides insights into food systems and local or alternative food systems. The author reveals current changes and opportunities of agricultural and agrifood sector and rural areas. The role and development opportunities of local food systems are summarized by the author.
Yu, Wusheng; Bandara, Jayatilleke
consumers and producers and restricting exports entailed huge fiscal costs and equally large welfare costs to India, an outcome that is almost always the worst as compared to the alternative policy mixes examined in this study. While the most market-oriented domestic and trade policy alternatives that would......This study uses a computable general equilibrium model to evaluate the fiscal and welfare costs of the market stabilisation and insulating food policy of India during the 2007-08 global food crisis. We demonstrate that domestic food grain price stabilisation through simultaneously subsidising...... generate better welfare effects and the least fiscal costs may not be feasible due to political economy considerations, we argue that there exist some 'middle-ground' policy mixes featuring partial relaxations of domestic subsidies on either food grains or fertilisers and/or less restrictive border...
Julie G. Ranada
This study attempts to derive reliable estimates of the price elasticity of demand for energy and the elasticities of substitution among labor, capital and energy in Philippine production. Three different methods of increasing complexity are fitted to data for firms employing twenty or more workers, based on annual surveys of the National Census and Statistics Office, The food processing sector in Philippine manufacturing was chosen as the testing ground for the types of analyses proposed.
While the precise contribution of biofuels to surging food prices is difficult to know, policies promoting production of the current generation of biofuels are not achieving their stated objectives of increased energy independence or reduced greenhouse gas emissions. Reaching the congressionally mandated goal of blending 15 billion gallons of renewable fuels in gasoline by 2015 would consume roughly 40 percent of the corn crop (based on recent production levels) while replacing just 7 percent...
Headey, Derek; Fan, Shenggen
"Although the potential causes and consequences of recent increases in international food prices have attracted widespread attention, many existing appraisals are superficial and/or piecemeal. This paper attempts to provide a more comprehensive review of these issues based on the best and most recent research, and includes fresh theoretical and empirical analysis. We first analyze the causes of the current crisis by considering how well standard explanations hold up against relevant economic ...
MAGRINI, EMILIANO; Montalbano, Pierluigi; Nenci, Silvia; Salvatici, Luca
The aim of this paper is to assess the causal impact of trade policy distortions on food security. This is an hot issue since restrictions to agricultural trade have been generally applied by national governments, especially in developing countries, as a tool to insulate domestic markets from international prices turmoil. The added value of this work is twofold: i) the use of a non parametric matching technique with continuous treatment, namely the Generalised Propensity Score (GPS) to addres...
Grunert, Klaus G.; Harmsen, Hanne; Larsen, Hanne Hartvig;
There is wide agreement in the public debate that the food industry in Western industrialised countries is entering a difficult period. Several tendencies taken together work to increase the competitive pressure on food companies (Grunert et al., 1996): - In affluent economies, it is one of the l....... - Concentration in the retail sector has resulted in powerful agents. Not only do the agents exercise an important gatekeeper function but they can also put competitive pressure on food manufacturers.......There is wide agreement in the public debate that the food industry in Western industrialised countries is entering a difficult period. Several tendencies taken together work to increase the competitive pressure on food companies (Grunert et al., 1996): - In affluent economies, it is one of the...... laws of economics that growth in markets for food products, if any, is not in terms of quantity, but in terms of value. - Most industrialised economies are characterised by an oversupply of agricultural products. - A global tendency towards deregulation, decrease of government subsidies to producers of...
Akihiko Michimi; Wimberly, Michael C
This research examines the larger-scale associations between obesity and food environments in metropolitan areas in the United States (US). The US Census County Business Patterns dataset for 2011 was used to construct various indices of food environments for selected metropolitan areas. The numbers of employees engaged in supermarkets, convenience stores, full service restaurants, fast food restaurants, and snack/coffee shops were standardised using the location quotients, and factor analysis...
Marian, Livia; Chrysochou, Polymeros; Krystallis Krontalis, Athanasios; Thøgersen, John
High prices are often reported as an obstacle that inhibits the purchase of organic food products. The aim of this paper is to investigate how organic food products perform at different price levels and whether high prices are an advantage or a disadvantage for consumers’ repeat purchase of organic food. Based on analyses of actual purchase data, this study explores the effect of two product attributes (production method and price) on repeat purchase. The analysis is based on purchase data fo...
Jeffery Robert W; Story Mary T; Oakes J Michael; French Simone A; Harnack Lisa J; Rydell Sarah A
Abstract Background Although point-of-purchase calorie labeling at restaurants has been proposed as a strategy for improving consumer food choices, a limited number of studies have evaluated this approach. Likewise, little research has been conducted to evaluate the influence of value size pricing on restaurant meal choices. Methods To examine the effect of point-of-purchase calorie information and value size pricing on fast food meal choices a randomized 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conduc...
Brown, M. E.; Hintermann, B.; Higgins, N.
The recent massive increase in food and energy prices in the past five years, coupled with the awareness of the long term challenges of climate change to small holder agriculture in Africa has brought the issue of food security for the world's poorest people to the forefront once again. Asymmetric and limited integration of local commodity markets in West Africa highlights the weak position of Africa's rural countries in the face of climate change and demographic expansion. This paper will describe the functioning of local informal food markets in West African over the past twenty years and evaluate the impact of their limited integration with each other and with global commodity markets. Satellite remote sensing of vegetation has been used as a proxy for agricultural production in economic models to improve prediction of large swings in prices from year to year due to differences in supply. As demand increases, improvements in market functioning will be necessary to counter likely increases in production variability. Increasing Africa's stability in the face of climate change will require investment in agricultural production and transportation infrastructure in order to ensure an affordable flow of food to people in these extremely poor, landlocked countries.
Exchange rate pass-through in a set of euro area prices along the pricing chain is examined. Using a vector autoregression (VAR) approach, the empirics analyze the joint time-series behavior of the euro exchange rate and a system of euro-area prices in response to an exchange rate shock. The impulse-response functions from the VAR estimates are used to identify-in a 'new open economy macroeconomics model'-those key behavioral parameters that best replicate the pattern of exchange rate pass-th...
Wood, Benjamin; Nelson, Carl; Kilic, Talip; Murray, Siobhan
Diversification into high-value cash crops among smallholders has been propagated as a strategy to improve welfare in rural areas. However, the extent to which cash crop production spurs projected gains remains an under-researched question, especially in the context of market imperfections leading to non-separable production and consumption decisions, and price shocks to staple crops that ...
Capacci, Sara; Mazzocchi, Mario; Shankar, Bhavani
The paper aims at indirectly estimating a time series of food prices from household expenditure data, focusing on foods considered as ‘junk’ relative to healthy foods. The “big 6” among the HFSS (high in fats, sugar and salt) foods identified by the Food Standard Agency have been selected to compose a target ‘unhealthy’ basket, compared to a ‘healthy’ benchmark aggregate including fruit and vegetables. UK data from the National Food Surveys, the Household Expenditure Surveys and the Living Co...
The Food and Agriculture Act of 1977 increased the influence of target prices on acreage allocation decisions Differences between target and market prices were highly correlated with rates of participation in recent grain set-aside programs But, target prices also encourage set-aside participants to increase acreage of the set-aside crop The net effect of a set-aside on acreage of a specific crop may, thus, be positive or negative. Deficiencies in the target price formula magnify the potentia...
Naha, Ashrafun; MANDAL, M.A.SATTAR; Rahman, M. Saidur
The study evaluated the impact of price hike on food consumption of the poor and the performance of safety net programmes in the targeted monga affected areas (monga means season of very low employment in September/October, which led to famine like situation in the past). Primary data were collected from a sample of 90 poor households from four villages selected purposively from Gobindaganj Upazila of Gaibandha district, considering the traditional incidence of monga in the area. The sample h...
Campa, José Manuel; Linda S. Goldberg; José M. González-Mínguez
This paper presents an empirical analysis of transmission rates from exchange rate movements to import prices, across countries and product categories, in the euro area over the last fifteen years. Our results show that the transmission of exchange rate changes to import prices in the short run is high, although incomplete, and that it differs across industries and countries; in the long run, exchange rate pass-through is higher and close to one. We find no strong statistical evidence that th...
Bowdler, Christopher; Eilev S. Jansen
Empirical models of inflation often incorporate equilibrium correction effects based upon levels of prices and input costs. Such models assume that the steady-state price-cost markup is constant, but recent research suggests that this may not be true for the Euro area economy, which has undergone major structural reforms over the last 25 years. We allow for permanent shifts in the markup factor through estimating an inflation equation that includes a time-varying intercept. The model suggests...
Climate change is likely to be the most important global pollution problem that humanity has had to face so far. In this dissertation, I tackle issues directly and indirectly related to climate change, bringing my modest contribution to the body of human creativity trying to deal with climate change. First, I look at the impact of non-convex feedbacks on the optimal climate policy. Second, I try to derive the optimal biofuel policy acknowledging the potential negative impacts that biofuel production might have on food supply. Finally, I test empirically for the presence of loss aversion in food purchases, which might play a role in the consumer response to food price changes brought about by biofuel production. Non-convexities in feedback processes are increasingly found to be important in the climate system. To evaluate their impact on the optimal greenhouse gas (GHG) abate- ment policy, I introduce non-convex feedbacks in a stochastic pollution control model. I numerically calibrate the model to represent the mitigation of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions contributing to global climate change. This approach makes two contributions to the literature. First, it develops a framework to tackle stochastic non-convex pollu- tion management problems. Second, it applies this framework to the problem of climate change. This approach is in contrast to most of the economic literature on climate change that focuses either on linear feedbacks or environmental thresholds. I find that non-convex feedbacks lead to a decision threshold in the optimal mitigation policy, and I characterize how this threshold depends on feedback parameters and stochasticity. There is great hope that biofuel can help reduce greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel. However, there are some concerns that biofuel would increase food prices. In an optimal control model, a co-author and I look at the optimal biofuel production when it competes for land with food production. In addition oil is not
Full Text Available This research examines the larger-scale associations between obesity and food environments in metropolitan areas in the United States (US. The US Census County Business Patterns dataset for 2011 was used to construct various indices of food environments for selected metropolitan areas. The numbers of employees engaged in supermarkets, convenience stores, full service restaurants, fast food restaurants, and snack/coffee shops were standardised using the location quotients, and factor analysis was used to produce two uncorrelated factors measuring food environments. Data on obesity were obtained from the 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Individual level obesity measures were linked to the metropolitan area level food environment factors. Models were fitted using generalised estimating equations to control for metropolitan area level intra-correlation and individual level sociodemographic characteristics. It was found that adults residing in cities with a large share of supermarket and full-service restaurant workers were less likely to be obese, while adults residing in cities with a large share of convenience store and fast food restaurant workers were more likely to be obese. Supermarkets and full-service restaurant workers are concentrated in the Northeast and West of the US, where obesity prevalence is relatively lower, while convenience stores and fast-food restaurant workers are concentrated in the South and Midwest, where obesity prevalence is relatively higher. The food environment landscapes measured at the metropolitan area level explain the continental-scale patterns of obesity prevalence. The types of food that are readily available and widely served may translate into obesity disparities across metropolitan areas.
Michimi, Akihiko; Wimberly, Michael C
This research examines the larger-scale associations between obesity and food environments in metropolitan areas in the United States (US). The US Census County Business Patterns dataset for 2011 was used to construct various indices of food environments for selected metropolitan areas. The numbers of employees engaged in supermarkets, convenience stores, full service restaurants, fast food restaurants, and snack/coffee shops were standardised using the location quotients, and factor analysis was used to produce two uncorrelated factors measuring food environments. Data on obesity were obtained from the 2011 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. Individual level obesity measures were linked to the metropolitan area level food environment factors. Models were fitted using generalised estimating equations to control for metropolitan area level intra-correlation and individual level sociodemographic characteristics. It was found that adults residing in cities with a large share of supermarket and full-service restaurant workers were less likely to be obese, while adults residing in cities with a large share of convenience store and fast food restaurant workers were more likely to be obese. Supermarkets and full-service restaurant workers are concentrated in the Northeast and West of the US, where obesity prevalence is relatively lower, while convenience stores and fast-food restaurant workers are concentrated in the South and Midwest, where obesity prevalence is relatively higher. The food environment landscapes measured at the metropolitan area level explain the continental-scale patterns of obesity prevalence. The types of food that are readily available and widely served may translate into obesity disparities across metropolitan areas. PMID:26618317
This study examines the degree to which consumers’ price consciousness affects their purchase intentions for a newly introduced product when the price of the product is unknown. Based on data from 186 consumers exposed to a new product offering, the results show that price consciousness indeed has a negative effect on purchase intentions, but only for consumers with a high level of product category knowledge. Although perceived risk and perceived value are significantly related to purchase in...
Sami Bibi; John Cockburn; Massa Coulibaly; Luca Tiberti
Since 2006, Mali has experienced the full effects of the global food crisis, with price increases of up to 67%. This study presents simulations of the impacts of this crisis and a number of policy responses with respect to the welfare of children. The impacts are analyzed in terms of monetary (food) poverty, nutrition, education, child labour and access to health services of children. According to simulations, food poverty among children would have increased from 41% to 51%, with a correspond...
In a first part, the author of this article comments the increase of oil prices since 2002 and notices that the magnitude is similar to that noticed during the 1973 and 1979 oil-shocks. He outlines that several factors have limited the impact of the oil price increase in the Euro area, notably the Euro appreciation with respect to the dollar: the Euro appreciation has absorbed half of the oil price increase, the oil intensity of the European economy has decreased, a tax damping effect has been noticed, and more competitive markets limit the inflation risk. The author assesses the impact of oil price increase on the growth of the Euro zone since 2002: recessionary effect of oil price increase, an actual impact but limited by the appreciation of Euro. Perspectives for 2008 are discussed: predictable oil price evolution and its impact of growth in 2008, policy and action of the ECB (European Central Bank) in front of the impact of oil price increase on inflation and on activity
Jeffery Robert W
Full Text Available Abstract Background Although point-of-purchase calorie labeling at restaurants has been proposed as a strategy for improving consumer food choices, a limited number of studies have evaluated this approach. Likewise, little research has been conducted to evaluate the influence of value size pricing on restaurant meal choices. Methods To examine the effect of point-of-purchase calorie information and value size pricing on fast food meal choices a randomized 2 × 2 factorial experiment was conducted in which participants ordered a fast food meal from one of four menus that varied with respect to whether calorie information was provided and whether value size pricing was used. Study participants included 594 adolescents and adults who regularly ate at fast food restaurants. Study staff recorded the foods ordered and consumed by each participant. Participants also completed surveys to assess attitudes, beliefs and practices related to fast food and nutrition. Results No significant differences in the energy composition of meals ordered or eaten were found between menu conditions. The average energy content of meals ordered by those randomized to a menu that included calorie information and did not include value size pricing was 842 kcals compared with 827 kcals for those who ordered their meal from a menu that did not include calorie information but had value size pricing (control menu. Results were similar in most analyses conducted stratified by factors such as age, race and education level. Conclusion Additional research is needed to better evaluate the effects of calorie labeling and value size pricing on fast food meal choices. Studies in which participants are repeatedly exposed to these factors are needed since long term exposure may be required for behavior change.
Parlesak, Alexandr; Robertson, Aileen
baskets should also reflect dietary guidelines to prevent non-communicable diseases and be optimized to achieve the highest possible social acceptance. So far, integrative approaches that include all these aspects are lacking. Methods: Food composition, local availability, food prices, national and...... available foods. The study was designed to obtain healthy, affordable, and socially acceptable diets for three European countries (Denmark, Slovenia, and Romania) and in three regions within Canada, Argentina, and Switzerland. Moreover, the costs for the “limiting” micronutrients and relative price...... micronutrients influencing the increased cost of food baskets were calcium, potassium, and the vitamins A, B2, C, and D. When additional constraints were applied by integrating food-based dietary guidelines and social acceptability (as measured by current consumption patterns, central 80% percentile), the cost...
Dreger, Christian; Wolters, Jürgen
Monetary growth in the euro area has exceeded its target since several years. At the same time, the money demand function seems to be increasingly unstable if more recent data are used. If the link between money balances and the macroeconomy is fragile, the rationale of monetary aggregates in the ECB strategy has to be doubted. In fact, a rise in the income elasticity after 2001 can be observed, and may reflect the exclusion of real and financial wealth in conventional specifications of money...
Rummo, Pasquale E; Meyer, Katie A; Green Howard, Annie; Shikany, James M; Guilkey, David K; Gordon-Larsen, Penny
Little research has addressed whether neighborhood context influences associations between fast food price, diet, and cardiometabolic health. We investigated these associations using 25 years of Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) study data (n=4,469, observations=21,134). We found a negative association between fast food price and consumption, with stronger inverse associations in more (vs. less) deprived neighborhoods [3rd tertile: β=-0.68 (95% CI: (-0.85, -0.51); 1st tertile: β=-0.22 (95% CI: -0.42, -0.02); p-interaction-0.002], and a similar association for BMI [3rd tertile: β=-1.34 (95% CI: -1.54, -1.14); 1st tertile: β=-0.45 (95% CI: -0.66, -0.25); p-interactionfast food price by fast food availability. Future research on obesity disparities should consider potential differences in the association between fast food prices and health outcomes across neighborhood socioeconomic levels. PMID:26319447
Salam Bash AlMaliky; Zainab AlKhayat
An inventory and generation rate for the kitchen food waste were determined in residential areas across Baghdad, Iraq as a first step towards more developed and sustainable solid waste management system. The study was based on collecting data from 20 families from 20 different locations across the city for the period from November, 2011 through June, 2012, regarding their total weekly food purchases and wastes in addition to other relevant social information in order to determine statistical ...
Background In the context of rising food prices, there is a need for evidence on the most effective approaches for promoting healthy eating. Individually-targeted behavioural interventions for increasing food-related skills show promise, but are unlikely to be effective in the absence of structural supports. Fiscal policies have been advocated as a means of promoting healthy eating and reducing obesity and nutrition-related disease, but there is little empirical evidence of their effectiveness. This paper describes the Supermarket Healthy Eating for LiFe (SHELf) study, a randomised controlled trial to investigate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a tailored skill-building intervention and a price reduction intervention, separately and in combination, against a control condition for promoting purchase and consumption of healthy foods and beverages in women from high and low socioeconomic groups. Methods/design SHELf comprises a randomised controlled trial design, with participants randomised to receive either (1) a skill-building intervention; (2) price reductions on fruits, vegetables and low-joule soft drink beverages and water; (3) a combination of skill-building and price reductions; or (4) a control condition. Five hundred women from high and low socioeconomic areas will be recruited through a store loyalty card program and local media. Randomisation will occur on receipt of informed consent and baseline questionnaire. An economic evaluation from a societal perspective using a cost-consequences approach will compare the costs and outcomes between intervention and control groups. Discussion This study will build on a pivotal partnership with a major national supermarket chain and the Heart Foundation to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies aimed at increasing women's purchasing and consumption of fruits and vegetables and decreased purchasing and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. It will be among the first internationally to
Le Ha ND
Full Text Available Abstract Background In the context of rising food prices, there is a need for evidence on the most effective approaches for promoting healthy eating. Individually-targeted behavioural interventions for increasing food-related skills show promise, but are unlikely to be effective in the absence of structural supports. Fiscal policies have been advocated as a means of promoting healthy eating and reducing obesity and nutrition-related disease, but there is little empirical evidence of their effectiveness. This paper describes the Supermarket Healthy Eating for LiFe (SHELf study, a randomised controlled trial to investigate effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of a tailored skill-building intervention and a price reduction intervention, separately and in combination, against a control condition for promoting purchase and consumption of healthy foods and beverages in women from high and low socioeconomic groups. Methods/design SHELf comprises a randomised controlled trial design, with participants randomised to receive either (1 a skill-building intervention; (2 price reductions on fruits, vegetables and low-joule soft drink beverages and water; (3 a combination of skill-building and price reductions; or (4 a control condition. Five hundred women from high and low socioeconomic areas will be recruited through a store loyalty card program and local media. Randomisation will occur on receipt of informed consent and baseline questionnaire. An economic evaluation from a societal perspective using a cost-consequences approach will compare the costs and outcomes between intervention and control groups. Discussion This study will build on a pivotal partnership with a major national supermarket chain and the Heart Foundation to investigate the effectiveness of intervention strategies aimed at increasing women's purchasing and consumption of fruits and vegetables and decreased purchasing and consumption of sugar-sweetened beverages. It will be among the
Bak, Nahyeon; Coggins, Jay S.
The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the new unit-based pricing system (UPS) for food waste on the volume of solid waste collected, accounting for the effect of cross price elasticity and environmental activism. Based on causal inference using a natural experiment with a difference-in-differences model for Korea for 2003-2010, this paper shows that adopting UPS for food waste has a significant negative effect on the volume of solid waste. A key contribution relative to the b...
Jayne, Thom S.; Yamano, Takashi; Nyoro, James K.; Awour, Tom
This paper uses information from rural household surveys in 24 districts in Kenya to inform current debate on maize pricing policy. Specifically, it sheds light on how rural farm households are being affected by governmental efforts to support maize price levels. Using information on landed import costs of white maize from South Africa with and without the import tariff, it simulates the effects of eliminating the tariff on rural smallholder farmers, large-scale farmers, and urban consumers. ...
Nord, Mark; Hopwood, Heather
The cost of “enough food,” estimated from the amount that low- and medium-income households in a geographic area report needing to spend to just meet their food needs, differs substantially across States and among metropolitan areas. In areas with high food costs, many food-stamp recipients are likely to have inadequate food resources to support healthy food choices.
Leone, Angela F.; Lee, Jung Sun; Rigby, Samantha; Kurtz, Hilda; Johnson, Mary Ann; Betterley, Connie; Park, Sohyun
Introduction The availability of healthful foods varies by neighborhood. We examined the availability and price of more healthful foods by store type, neighborhood income level, and racial composition in a community with high rates of diet-related illness and death. Methods We used the modified Nutrition Environment Measures Survey in Stores to conduct this cross-sectional study in 2008. We surveyed 73 stores (29% supermarkets, 11% grocery stores, and 60% convenience stores) in Leon County, F...
Marianna Riggi; Fabrizio Venditti
In this paper we provide novel evidence on changes in the relationship between the real price of oil and real exports in the euro area. By combining robust predictions on the sign of the impulse responses obtained from a theoretical model with restrictions on the slope of the oil demand and oil supply curves, we identify oil supply and foreign productivity shocks in a time varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We find that from the 1980s onwards the relationship between oil prices and euro ...
Javier Campos; Juan Luis Jiménez; Ancor Suárez-Alemán
Using a dataset from consumption patterns in the island of Gran Canaria collected by the authors, this paper attempts to quantify some non-positive effects of tourism on local destination retail markets for goods and services. In particular, we empirically prove, controlling by factors such as population, size of supermarkets or number of competitors, two main effects: first, that supermarkets located in touristic areas charge higher prices than those in non-touristic areas; and second, that ...
Lazrak, Faroek; Nijkamp, Peter; Rietveld, Piet; Rouwendal, Jan
The current literature often values intangible goods like cultural heritage by applying stated preference methods. In recent years, however, the increasing availability of large databases on real estate transactions and listed prices has opened up new research possibilities and has reduced various existing barriers to applications of conventional (spatial) hedonic analysis to the real estate market. The present paper provides one of the first applications using a spatial autoregressive model to investigate the impact of cultural heritage—in particular, listed buildings and historic-cultural sites (or historic landmarks)—on the value of real estate in cities. In addition, this paper suggests a novel way of specifying the spatial weight matrix—only prices of sold houses influence current price—in identifying the spatial dependency effects between sold properties. The empirical application in the present study concerns the Dutch urban area of Zaanstad, a historic area for which over a long period of more than 20 years detailed information on individual dwellings, and their market prices are available in a GIS context. In this paper, the effect of cultural heritage is analysed in three complementary ways. First, we measure the effect of a listed building on its market price in the relevant area concerned. Secondly, we investigate the value that listed heritage has on nearby property. And finally, we estimate the effect of historic-cultural sites on real estate prices. We find that, to purchase a listed building, buyers are willing to pay an additional 26.9 %, while surrounding houses are worth an extra 0.28 % for each additional listed building within a 50-m radius. Houses sold within a conservation area appear to gain a premium of 26.4 % which confirms the existence of a `historic ensemble' effect.
Powell, Lisa M.; Chriqui, Jamie F; Khan, Tamkeen; Wada, Roy; Chaloupka, Frank J.
Taxes and subsidies are increasingly being considered as potential policy instruments to incentivize consumers to improve their food and beverage consumption patterns and related health outcomes. This study provided a systematic review of recent U.S. studies on the price elasticity of demand for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs), fast food and fruits and vegetables as well as the direct associations of prices/taxes with body weight outcomes. Based on the recent literature, the price elasticity...
Woldie, Getachew Abebe; Siddig, Khalid
In the poorest countries like Ethiopia the spillover effects of a soaring food price is unbearable. To mitigate the recent rise in food prices and the burden on urban poor consumers, different measures have been considered by policy makers. Recently, Ethiopia banned the export of all grain products in a bid to stem huge price hikes. The export of indigenous grains, including the staple grains, like teff, maize, sorghum, and wheat are suspended indefinitely. Using the standard GTAP model and t...
Juán José Cervantes-Navarrete
Full Text Available In Anorexia Nervosa the observable phenomenon is the suppression of appetite. Little is known about the biological and psychological (top-down bases that maintain this pathological state. However, Anorexia Nervosa is a biological, psychological and social model where the main behavioral characteristic is the inhibition of eating behavior; not by bottom-up but top-down regulation. Objective: To explore the areas of the brain associated with food appetency through functional magnetic resonance in women with anorexia nervosa. Methods: The subjects include 5 female with Restrictive type of Anorexia Nervosa and five controls female with similar in age and low weigh. The subjects were within the MRI scanner and while took fMRI they saw food images that would generate appetite. The subjects were in fasting state and mentally prepare by instruction “imagine you are eating the food presented in the following images”. Results: Compared differences in the activation between subjects four regions were found significant: the anterior cingulate, left front medial region and the left and right midbrain. Conclusions: The patients with Anorexia Nervosa present different activated cerebral areas to those of the controls during the visual exposition to food in hungry state and with evoke cognitions associated with eat food; those regions may be implicated in reward and self-control.
Gardebroek, C.; Hernandez, M.A.
This paper examines volatility transmission in oil, ethanol and corn prices in the United States between 1997 and 2011. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach to evaluate the level of interdependence and the dynamics of volatility across these markets. Preliminary results indicate a higher interact
With the development of the rural economy in China, rural household's consumption behavior in main grain producing area has being changed, which influence the adjustment of Agricultural industrial structure and agricultural industrial policy. In this article,we use Almost Ideal Demand System(AIDS) to estimate the elasticities of demand expenditure and price(own price elasticity and cross-price elasticity) and then to analyze food consumption behavior of rural household in main grain producing area. The results show that foods such as rice, wheat, pork, beef in main grain producing area have the positive elasticities of demand expenditure. According to the cross-price elasticity, the demand for eggs, mutton, beef and pork is more affected by the fluctuation of other food's price, while the demand for the wheat, rice, maize and soybean is less affected by thefluctuation of other food's price. Based on the results, some policy recommendations, such as increasing farmer's income, expanding the animal food production, stabilize food's price, are put forward correspondingly.in the article.
Full Text Available The assessment of food production capacity is particularly important in small- and medium-sized cities, which have greater chances to develop local periurban farming. To date the literature has been focused on niche sectors of the food market, such as alternative food networks and public procurement for school canteens, but less attention has been paid to urban food production. We present a method to assess the food production capacity in periurban areas, which we tested on meat production (beef and lamb in the urban region of Pisa, a medium-sized Italian city. The capacity of periurban livestock farms for meat production to fulfil urban demand was assessed on the basis of meat supply and demand. We derived meat demand from statistical data, whereas we calculated meat supply on the basis of three estimates (i.e. potential, current, actual meat supply taking into account both statistical and on-farm survey data. In particular, the potential meat supply was estimated from statistical data on slaughtered livestock, the current meat supply was estimated from meat production data of on-farm surveys, while the actual meat supply was estimated from the amount of meat sold by farmers on the local market from onfarm surveys. For the urban region of Pisa, we estimated that the potential meat supply met is equal to 16% of the beef demand and 62% of the lamb demand. This data could change, if the on-farm data is taken into account in the current supply, as was the case with lamb, which decreased to 37%, whereas beef remained almost unchanged (14%. The actual supply was 70% and 10% of the current supply for beef and lamb respectively. We identified some gaps between the three estimates, particularly for lamb production, suggesting that it may have some constraints in terms of production and commercialisation. Our results can contribute to assess local food systems and their drivers at the farm level. Furthermore these results also highlight the need for an
Hwang, Yun Jae; Roe, Brian E.; Mario F. Teisl
When products are differentiated and quality is highly subjective (e.g., fashion or art), novel (e.g., a new feature), or difficult to verify prior to purchase (e.g., credence attributes), consumers may turn to price as a signal of quality. Products containing genetically modified (GM) ingredients meet each of these criteria, i.e., GM ingredients are novel, their presence is difficult to verify, and their impact on subjective quality may be viewed differently across individuals with the same ...
This paper made a VECM-based research using the data of China and world food price from January 2007 to June 2013 , and found out that china food price and world food price is in a long and stable relationship, that world food price has a greater impact on China food prices than vice versa-when China food prices deviates from the equilibrium price level by interference, it is subject to a force in the same direction to make a big adjustment, but when world food price deviates from the equilibrium price level by interference, it is subject to a reverse force to make a small adjustment-and that the world food price shock is an important factor leading to the domestic food price changes. It recommends monitoring the supply and demand of world food market, increasing investment on China’s grain production and expanding the sources of food import to China so as to prevent food inflation risk in China .%基于2007年1月至2013年6月间国内外食品价格数据，利用VECM模型研究发现：国内外食品价格之间存在长期稳定的关系，国际食品价格对国内食品价格的影响比后者对前者的影响更大；我国食品价格受到干扰偏离均衡价格时，将受到一个同向的调整力，调整幅度较大。而当国际食品价格受到干扰偏离均衡价格时，将受到一个反向的调整力，调整幅度较小；国际食品价格冲击是导致国内食品价格变动的重要因素。可从监测国际食品市场供求关系、加大对粮食生产的投资力度和拓宽我国粮食进口来源渠道等方面制订防范我国食品通胀风险的政策。
基于2007年1月至2013年6月间国内外食品价格数据，利用VECM模型研究发现：国内外食品价格之间存在长期稳定的关系，国际食品价格对国内食品价格的影响比后者对前者的影响更大；我国食品价格受到干扰偏离均衡价格时，将受到一个同向的调整力，调整幅度较大。而当国际食品价格受到干扰偏离均衡价格时，将受到一个反向的调整力，调整幅度较小；国际食品价格冲击是导致国内食品价格变动的重要因素。可从监测国际食品市场供求关系、加大对粮食生产的投资力度和拓宽我国粮食进口来源渠道等方面制订防范我国食品通胀风险的政策。%This paper made a VECM-based research using the data of China and world food price from January 2007 to June 2013 , and found out that china food price and world food price is in a long and stable relationship, that world food price has a greater impact on China food prices than vice versa-when China food prices deviates from the equilibrium price level by interference, it is subject to a force in the same direction to make a big adjustment, but when world food price deviates from the equilibrium price level by interference, it is subject to a reverse force to make a small adjustment-and that the world food price shock is an important factor leading to the domestic food price changes. It recommends monitoring the supply and demand of world food market, increasing investment on China’s grain production and expanding the sources of food import to China so as to prevent food inflation risk in China .
Can monetary policy prevent real estate bubbles from harming economic welfare? The European Central Bank (ECB) has to conduct monetary policy for the Euro area as a whole, but her policy affects countries with rapidly rising house prices (e.g. Spain) in a markedly different way than those with stagnating house prices (like Germany). For opposing divergent real estate price developments within the European Monetary Union (EMU), interest rate policy is not the appropriate instrument; whereas "f...
Yu, Wusheng; Jensen, Hans Grinsted
jointly moderated rises of domestic grain prices. In particular, domestic and trade measures on key agricultural inputs such as fertilizers are shown to contribute significantly to expand grain outputs and reduce domestic market prices. While the short-term goal in stabilizing domestic grain prices...... of these complicated policy interventions may be partially avoidable with a simpler and less distorting instrument....
Grohnheit, Poul Erik; Møller Andersen, Frits; Larsen, Helge V.
Denmark, east and west of the Great Belt are bidding areas with separate hourly area prices for the Nord Pool power exchange, covering four Nordic countries and parts of Germany. The share of wind power has now increased to 25% on an annual basis in western Denmark. This has a significant impact......, which can improve market efficiency, and a welfare gain is obtained. An important limitation for demand response is events of several consecutive hours with extreme values. The analysis in this paper is a summary and update of some of the issues covered by the EU RESPOND project. It shows that extreme...
Full Text Available Road traffic noise is one of the main concerns of large cities. Most of them have classified their territory in acoustic areas and have constructed strategic noise maps. From both sources we have elaborated seven types of acoustic neighbourhoods according to both their noise gap in regard to the legal standard and the percentage of population exposed to noise. A spatial Durbin model has been selected as the strategy that best models the impact of noise on housing prices. However, results for Madrid do not confirm the hedonic theory and indicate, as one of the possibilities, that the official acoustic areas in Madrid could be incorrectly designed.
Transmission of price shocks from one market to another one has long been investigated in the economic literature. However, studies have namely dealt with the relationship between financial and energy markets. With the recent changes in market conditions, investors, policy-makers and interest groups are giving special attention to food market. This paper aims at analyzing shock transmission between international food, energy and financial markets and to provide some insights into the volatility behavior during the past years and discuss its implications for portfolio management. To do this, we present a new time varying parameter VAR (TVP-VAR) model with stochastic volatility approach which provides extreme flexibility with a parsimonious specification. We resort also to a generalized vector autoregressive framework in which forecast-error variance decompositions are invariant to the variable ordering for the assessment of total and directional volatility spillovers. Our main findings suggest that volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis and, namely after mid-2008, when stock markets become net transmitter of volatility shocks while crude oil becomes a net receiver. Shocks to crude oil or MSCI markets have immediate and short-term impacts on food markets which are emphasized during the financial crisis period. Moreover, we show that augmenting a diversified portfolio of food commodities with crude oil or stocks significantly increases its risk-adjusted performance. - Highlights: • We study shock transmission between food, energy and financial markets. • We use a new time-varying parameter VAR model with stochastic volatility. • There is volatility spillover from oil and stock markets to food. • Volatility spillovers increase considerably during crisis, namely after mid-2008. • Augmenting a portfolio of foods with oil or stocks increases its performance
Rodrigues, Livia Penna Firme; Carvalho, Raissa Costa; Maciel, Agatha; Otanasio, Polyanna Nunes; Garavello, Maria Elisa de Paula Eduardo; Nardoto, Gabriela Bielefeld
Aiming to investigate the effect of diet and food consumption with regard to health, environment, and economy in light of nutrition ecology, we studied the dimensions of nutrition and food security in urban and rural settings in the region of Chapada dos Veadeiros, Central Brazil. We tracked diet and food consumption through carbon and nitrogen stable isotope ratios in fingernails of these inhabitants together with food intake data as a proxy for their diet patterns. We estimated household food insecurity by using the Brazilian Food Insecurity Scale. Nutrition and food insecurity was observed in both urban and rural areas, but was accentuated in rural settings. The diet pattern had high δ(13)C values in fingernails and low δ(15)N. Both urban and rural areas have diets with low diversity and relying on low-quality processed food staples at the same time that nutrition and food insecurity is quite high in the region. PMID:27286412