Applying Hierarchical Bayesian Neural Network in Failure Time Prediction
Ling-Jing Kao
2012-01-01
Full Text Available With the rapid technology development and improvement, the product failure time prediction becomes an even harder task because only few failures in the product life tests are recorded. The classical statistical model relies on the asymptotic theory and cannot guarantee that the estimator has the finite sample property. To solve this problem, we apply the hierarchical Bayesian neural network (HBNN approach to predict the failure time and utilize the Gibbs sampler of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC to estimate model parameters. In this proposed method, the hierarchical structure is specified to study the heterogeneity among products. Engineers can use the heterogeneity estimates to identify the causes of the quality differences and further enhance the product quality. In order to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed hierarchical Bayesian neural network model, the prediction performance of the proposed model is evaluated using multiple performance measurement criteria. Sensitivity analysis of the proposed model is also conducted using different number of hidden nodes and training sample sizes. The result shows that HBNN can provide not only the predictive distribution but also the heterogeneous parameter estimates for each path.
Bayesian Neural Word Embedding
Barkan, Oren
2016-01-01
Recently, several works in the domain of natural language processing presented successful methods for word embedding. Among them, the Skip-gram (SG) with negative sampling, known also as Word2Vec, advanced the state-of-the-art of various linguistics tasks. In this paper, we propose a scalable Bayesian neural word embedding algorithm that can be beneficial to general item similarity tasks as well. The algorithm relies on a Variational Bayes solution for the SG objective and a detailed step by ...
Bayesian model selection applied to artificial neural networks used for water resources modeling
Kingston, Greer B.; Maier, Holger R.; Lambert, Martin F.
2008-04-01
Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have proven to be extremely valuable tools in the field of water resources engineering. However, one of the most difficult tasks in developing an ANN is determining the optimum level of complexity required to model a given problem, as there is no formal systematic model selection method. This paper presents a Bayesian model selection (BMS) method for ANNs that provides an objective approach for comparing models of varying complexity in order to select the most appropriate ANN structure. The approach uses Markov Chain Monte Carlo posterior simulations to estimate the evidence in favor of competing models and, in this study, three known methods for doing this are compared in terms of their suitability for being incorporated into the proposed BMS framework for ANNs. However, it is acknowledged that it can be particularly difficult to accurately estimate the evidence of ANN models. Therefore, the proposed BMS approach for ANNs incorporates a further check of the evidence results by inspecting the marginal posterior distributions of the hidden-to-output layer weights, which unambiguously indicate any redundancies in the hidden layer nodes. The fact that this check is available is one of the greatest advantages of the proposed approach over conventional model selection methods, which do not provide such a test and instead rely on the modeler's subjective choice of selection criterion. The advantages of a total Bayesian approach to ANN development, including training and model selection, are demonstrated on two synthetic and one real world water resources case study.
Bayesian modeling and classification of neural signals
Lewicki, Michael S.
1994-01-01
Signal processing and classification algorithms often have limited applicability resulting from an inaccurate model of the signal's underlying structure. We present here an efficient, Bayesian algorithm for modeling a signal composed of the superposition of brief, Poisson-distributed functions. This methodology is applied to the specific problem of modeling and classifying extracellular neural waveforms which are composed of a superposition of an unknown number of action potentials CAPs). ...
Congdon, Peter
2014-01-01
This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU
Option Pricing Using Bayesian Neural Networks
Pires, Michael Maio
2007-01-01
Options have provided a field of much study because of the complexity involved in pricing them. The Black-Scholes equations were developed to price options but they are only valid for European styled options. There is added complexity when trying to price American styled options and this is why the use of neural networks has been proposed. Neural Networks are able to predict outcomes based on past data. The inputs to the networks here are stock volatility, strike price and time to maturity with the output of the network being the call option price. There are two techniques for Bayesian neural networks used. One is Automatic Relevance Determination (for Gaussian Approximation) and one is a Hybrid Monte Carlo method, both used with Multi-Layer Perceptrons.
Probabilistic Backpropagation for Scalable Learning of Bayesian Neural Networks
Hernández-Lobato, José Miguel; Adams, Ryan P.
2015-01-01
Large multilayer neural networks trained with backpropagation have recently achieved state-of-the-art results in a wide range of problems. However, using backprop for neural net learning still has some disadvantages, e.g., having to tune a large number of hyperparameters to the data, lack of calibrated probabilistic predictions, and a tendency to overfit the training data. In principle, the Bayesian approach to learning neural networks does not have these problems. However, existing Bayesian ...
Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species
Observed data are often contaminated by undiscovered interlopers, leading to biased parameter estimation. Here we present BEAMS (Bayesian estimation applied to multiple species) which significantly improves on the standard maximum likelihood approach in the case where the probability for each data point being ''pure'' is known. We discuss the application of BEAMS to future type-Ia supernovae (SNIa) surveys, such as LSST, which are projected to deliver over a million supernovae light curves without spectra. The multiband light curves for each candidate will provide a probability of being Ia (pure) but the full sample will be significantly contaminated with other types of supernovae and transients. Given a sample of N supernovae with mean probability, , of being Ia, BEAMS delivers parameter constraints equal to N spectroscopically confirmed SNIa. In addition BEAMS can be simultaneously used to tease apart different families of data and to recover properties of the underlying distributions of those families (e.g. the type-Ibc and II distributions). Hence BEAMS provides a unified classification and parameter estimation methodology which may be useful in a diverse range of problems such as photometric redshift estimation or, indeed, any parameter estimation problem where contamination is an issue
Nuclear charge radii: Density functional theory meets Bayesian neural networks
Utama, Raditya; Piekarewicz, Jorge
2016-01-01
The distribution of electric charge in atomic nuclei is fundamental to our understanding of the complex nuclear dynamics and a quintessential observable to validate nuclear structure models. We explore a novel approach that combines sophisticated models of nuclear structure with Bayesian neural networks (BNN) to generate predictions for the charge radii of thousands of nuclei throughout the nuclear chart. A class of relativistic energy density functionals is used to provide robust predictions for nuclear charge radii. In turn, these predictions are refined through Bayesian learning for a neural network that is trained using residuals between theoretical predictions and the experimental data. Although predictions obtained with density functional theory provide a fairly good description of experiment, our results show significant improvement (better than 40%) after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results for nuclear charge radii are supplemented with theoretical error bars. We have successfully demonst...
Bayesian Methods for Neural Networks and Related Models
Titterington, D.M.
2004-01-01
Models such as feed-forward neural networks and certain other structures investigated in the computer science literature are not amenable to closed-form Bayesian analysis. The paper reviews the various approaches taken to overcome this difficulty, involving the use of Gaussian approximations, Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation routines and a class of non-Gaussian but “deterministic” approximations called variational approximations.
Recurrent Bayesian Reasoning in Probabilistic Neural Networks
Grim, Jiří; Hora, Jan
Vol. Part I. Berlin: Springer, 2007 - (Marques de Sá, J.; Alexandre, L.; Duch, W.; Mandic, D.), s. 129-138. (Lecture Notes in Computer Scinece. SL 1 - Theoretical Computer Science and General Issues. 4669). ISBN 3-540-74693-5. [International Conference on Artificial Neural Networks /17./. Porto (PT), 09.09.2007-13.09.2007] R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572; GA ČR GA102/07/1594 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 507752 - MUSCLE Grant ostatní: GA MŠk(CZ) 2C06019 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : neural networks * probabilistic approach * distribution mixtures Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information
Bayesian and neural networks for preliminary ship design
Clausen, H. B.; Lützen, Marie; Friis-Hansen, Andreas; Bjørneboe, Nanna Katrine
2001-01-01
examples, the three methods are evaluated in terms of accuracy and limitations of use. For different types of ships, the methods provide information on the relations between length, breadth, height, draft, speed, displacement, block coefficient and loading capacity. Thus, useful tools are available to the...... 000 ships is acquired and various methods for derivation of empirical relations are employed. A regression analysis is carried out to fit functions to the data. Further, the data are used to learn Bayesian and neural networks to encode the relations between the characteristics. On the basis of...
Introduction to applied Bayesian statistics and estimation for social scientists
Lynch, Scott M
2007-01-01
""Introduction to Applied Bayesian Statistics and Estimation for Social Scientists"" covers the complete process of Bayesian statistical analysis in great detail from the development of a model through the process of making statistical inference. The key feature of this book is that it covers models that are most commonly used in social science research - including the linear regression model, generalized linear models, hierarchical models, and multivariate regression models - and it thoroughly develops each real-data example in painstaking detail.The first part of the book provides a detailed
Markov Chain Monte Carlo Bayesian Learning for Neural Networks
Goodrich, Michael S.
2011-01-01
Conventional training methods for neural networks involve starting al a random location in the solution space of the network weights, navigating an error hyper surface to reach a minimum, and sometime stochastic based techniques (e.g., genetic algorithms) to avoid entrapment in a local minimum. It is further typically necessary to preprocess the data (e.g., normalization) to keep the training algorithm on course. Conversely, Bayesian based learning is an epistemological approach concerned with formally updating the plausibility of competing candidate hypotheses thereby obtaining a posterior distribution for the network weights conditioned on the available data and a prior distribution. In this paper, we developed a powerful methodology for estimating the full residual uncertainty in network weights and therefore network predictions by using a modified Jeffery's prior combined with a Metropolis Markov Chain Monte Carlo method.
A novel Bayesian learning method for information aggregation in modular neural networks
Wang, Pan; Xu, Lida; Zhou, Shang-Ming; Fan, Zhun; Li, Youfeng; Feng, Shan
2010-01-01
Modular neural network is a popular neural network model which has many successful applications. In this paper, a sequential Bayesian learning (SBL) is proposed for modular neural networks aiming at efficiently aggregating the outputs of members of the ensemble. The experimental results on eight ...... benchmark problems have demonstrated that the proposed method can perform information aggregation efficiently in data modeling....
Evidence for single top quark production using Bayesian neural networks
Kau, Daekwang; /Florida State U.
2007-08-01
We present results of a search for single top quark production in p{bar p} collisions using a dataset of approximately 1 fb{sup -1} collected with the D0 detector. This analysis considers the muon+jets and electron+jets final states and makes use of Bayesian neural networks to separate the expected signals from backgrounds. The observed excess is associated with a p-value of 0.081%, assuming the background-only hypothesis, which corresponds to an excess over background of 3.2 standard deviations for a Gaussian density. The p-value computed using the SM signal cross section of 2.9 pb is 1.6%, corresponding to an expected significance of 2.2 standard deviations. Assuming the observed excess is due to single top production, we measure a single top quark production cross section of {sigma}(p{bar p} {yields} tb + X, tqb + X) = 4.4 {+-} 1.5 pb.
Search for predictive generic model of aqueous solubility using Bayesian neural nets.
Bruneau, P
2001-01-01
Several predictive models of aqueous solubility have been published. They have good performances on the data sets which have been used for training the models, but usually these data sets do not contain many structures similar to the structures of interest to the drug research and their applicability in drug hunting is questionable. A very diverse data set has been gathered with compounds issued from literature reports and proprietary compounds. These compounds have been grouped in a so-called literature data set I, a proprietary data set II, and a mixed data set III formed by I and II. About 100 descriptors emphasizing surface properties were calculated for every compound. Bayesian learning of neural nets which cumulates the advantages of neural nets without having their weaknesses was used to select the most parsimonious models and train them, from I, II, and III. The models were established by either selecting the most efficient descriptors one by one using a modified Gram-Schmidt procedure (GS) or by simplifying a most complete model using automatic relevance procedure (ARD). The predictive ability of the models was accessed using validation data sets as much unrelated to the training sets as possible, using two new parameters: NDD(x,ref) the normalized smallest descriptor distance of a compound x to a reference data set and CD(x,mod) the combination of NDD(x,ref) with the dispersion of the Bayesian neural nets calculations. The results show that it is possible to obtain a generic predictive model from database I but that the diversity of database II is too restricted to give a model with good generalization ability and that the ARD method applied to the mixed database III gives the best predictive model. PMID:11749587
Advanced Neural Network Applied In Engineering Science
Nikita Patel*
2014-11-01
Full Text Available The basic idea behind a neural network is to simulate (copy in a simplified but reasonably faithful way lots of densely interconnected brain cells inside a computer so you can get it to learn things, recognize patterns, and make decisions in a humanlike way. The amazing thing about a neural network is that you don't have to program it to learn explicitly: it learns all by itself, just like a brain! But it isn't a brain. It's important to note that neural networks are (generally software simulations: they're made by programming very ordinary computers, working in a very traditional fashion with their ordinary transistors and serially connected logic gates, to behave as though they're built from billions of highly interconnected brain cells working in parallel. This paper is to propose that a neural network applied in engineering science that how a robots that can see, feel, and predict the world around them, improved stock prediction, common usage of self-driving car and much more!
Applying Artificial Neural Networks for Face Recognition
Thai Hoang Le
2011-01-01
Full Text Available This paper introduces some novel models for all steps of a face recognition system. In the step of face detection, we propose a hybrid model combining AdaBoost and Artificial Neural Network (ABANN to solve the process efficiently. In the next step, labeled faces detected by ABANN will be aligned by Active Shape Model and Multi Layer Perceptron. In this alignment step, we propose a new 2D local texture model based on Multi Layer Perceptron. The classifier of the model significantly improves the accuracy and the robustness of local searching on faces with expression variation and ambiguous contours. In the feature extraction step, we describe a methodology for improving the efficiency by the association of two methods: geometric feature based method and Independent Component Analysis method. In the face matching step, we apply a model combining many Neural Networks for matching geometric features of human face. The model links many Neural Networks together, so we call it Multi Artificial Neural Network. MIT + CMU database is used for evaluating our proposed methods for face detection and alignment. Finally, the experimental results of all steps on CallTech database show the feasibility of our proposed model.
Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications
Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia
2015-01-01
Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on
Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network
Takiyama, Ken
2016-05-01
Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.
Nested sampling applied in Bayesian room-acoustics decay analysis.
Jasa, Tomislav; Xiang, Ning
2012-11-01
Room-acoustic energy decays often exhibit single-rate or multiple-rate characteristics in a wide variety of rooms/halls. Both the energy decay order and decay parameter estimation are of practical significance in architectural acoustics applications, representing two different levels of Bayesian probabilistic inference. This paper discusses a model-based sound energy decay analysis within a Bayesian framework utilizing the nested sampling algorithm. The nested sampling algorithm is specifically developed to evaluate the Bayesian evidence required for determining the energy decay order with decay parameter estimates as a secondary result. Taking the energy decay analysis in architectural acoustics as an example, this paper demonstrates that two different levels of inference, decay model-selection and decay parameter estimation, can be cohesively accomplished by the nested sampling algorithm. PMID:23145609
A Bayesian framework for simultaneously modeling neural and behavioral data
B.M. Turner; B.U. Forstmann; E.-J. Wagenmakers; S.D. Brown; P.B. Sederberg; M. Steyvers
2013-01-01
Scientists who study cognition infer underlying processes either by observing behavior (e.g., response times, percentage correct) or by observing neural activity (e.g., the BOLD response). These two types of observations have traditionally supported two separate lines of study. The first is led by c
Identification of information tonality based on Bayesian approach and neural networks
Lande, D. V.
2008-01-01
A model of the identification of information tonality, based on Bayesian approach and neural networks was described. In the context of this paper tonality means positive or negative tone of both the whole information and its parts which are related to particular concepts. The method, its application is presented in the paper, is based on statistic regularities connected with the presence of definite lexemes in the texts. A distinctive feature of the method is its simplicity and versatility. A...
Applying Bayesian belief networks in rapid response situations
Gibson, William L [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Deborah, Leishman, A. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Van Eeckhout, Edward [Los Alamos National Laboratory
2008-01-01
The authors have developed an enhanced Bayesian analysis tool called the Integrated Knowledge Engine (IKE) for monitoring and surveillance. The enhancements are suited for Rapid Response Situations where decisions must be made based on uncertain and incomplete evidence from many diverse and heterogeneous sources. The enhancements extend the probabilistic results of the traditional Bayesian analysis by (1) better quantifying uncertainty arising from model parameter uncertainty and uncertain evidence, (2) optimizing the collection of evidence to reach conclusions more quickly, and (3) allowing the analyst to determine the influence of the remaining evidence that cannot be obtained in the time allowed. These extended features give the analyst and decision maker a better comprehension of the adequacy of the acquired evidence and hence the quality of the hurried decisions. They also describe two example systems where the above features are highlighted.
Advanced Neural Network Applied In Engineering Science
Nikita Patel*; Rakesh Patel,
2014-01-01
The basic idea behind a neural network is to simulate (copy in a simplified but reasonably faithful way) lots of densely interconnected brain cells inside a computer so you can get it to learn things, recognize patterns, and make decisions in a humanlike way. The amazing thing about a neural network is that you don't have to program it to learn explicitly: it learns all by itself, just like a brain! But it isn't a brain. It's important to note that neural networks are (generally) ...
Bayesian neural networks for bivariate binary data: an application to prostate cancer study.
Chakraborty, Sounak; Ghosh, Malay; Maiti, Tapabrata; Tewari, Ashutosh
2005-12-15
Prostate cancer is one of the most common cancers in American men. The cancer could either be locally confined, or it could spread outside the organ. When locally confined, there are several options for treating and curing this disease. Otherwise, surgery is the only option, and in extreme cases of outside spread, it could very easily recur within a short time even after surgery and subsequent radiation therapy. Hence, it is important to know, based on pre-surgery biopsy results how likely the cancer is organ-confined or not. The paper considers a hierarchical Bayesian neural network approach for posterior prediction probabilities of certain features indicative of non-organ confined prostate cancer. In particular, we find such probabilities for margin positivity (MP) and seminal vesicle (SV) positivity jointly. The available training set consists of bivariate binary outcomes indicating the presence or absence of the two. In addition, we have certain covariates such as prostate specific antigen (PSA), gleason score and the indicator for the cancer to be unilateral or bilateral (i.e. spread on one or both sides) in one data set and gene expression microarrays in another data set. We take a hierarchical Bayesian neural network approach to find the posterior prediction probabilities for a test and validation set, and compare these with the actual outcomes for the first data set. In case of the microarray data we use leave one out cross-validation to access the accuracy of our method. We also demonstrate the superiority of our method to the other competing methods through a simulation study. The Bayesian procedure is implemented by an application of the Markov chain Monte Carlo numerical integration technique. For the problem at hand, our Bayesian bivariate neural network procedure is shown to be superior to the classical neural network, Radford Neal's Bayesian neural network as well as bivariate logistic models to predict jointly the MP and SV in a patient in both the
Bayesian Regularization in a Neural Network Model to Estimate Lines of Code Using Function Points
K. K. Aggarwal
2005-01-01
Full Text Available It is a well known fact that at the beginning of any project, the software industry needs to know, how much will it cost to develop and what would be the time required ? . This paper examines the potential of using a neural network model for estimating the lines of code, once the functional requirements are known. Using the International Software Benchmarking Standards Group (ISBSG Repository Data (release 9 for the experiment, this paper examines the performance of back propagation feed forward neural network to estimate the Source Lines of Code. Multiple training algorithms are used in the experiments. Results demonstrate that the neural network models trained using Bayesian Regularization provide the best results and are suitable for this purpose.
Cristian Rodriguez Rivero
2014-07-01
Full Text Available The annual estimate of the availability of the amount of water for the agricultural sector has become a lifetime in places where rainfall is scarce, as is the case of northwestern Argentina. This work proposes to model and simulate monthly rainfall time series from one geographical location of Catamarca, Valle El Viejo Portezuelo. In this sense, the time series prediction is mathematical and computational modelling series provided by monthly cumulative rainfall, which has stochastic output approximated by neural networks Bayesian approach. We propose to use an algorithm based on artificial neural networks (ANNs using the Bayesian inference. The result of the prediction consists of 20% of the provided data consisting of 2000 to 2010. A new analysis for modelling, simulation and computational prediction of cumulative rainfall from one geographical location is well presented. They are used as data information, only the historical time series of daily flows measured in mmH2O. Preliminary results of the annual forecast in mmH2O with a prediction horizon of one year and a half are presented, 18 months, respectively. The methodology employs artificial neural network based tools, statistical analysis and computer to complete the missing information and knowledge of the qualitative and quantitative behavior. They also show some preliminary results with different prediction horizons of the proposed filter and its comparison with the performance Gaussian process filter used in the literature.
Applying neural networks to optimize instrumentation performance
Well calibrated instrumentation is essential in providing meaningful information about the status of a plant. Signals from plant instrumentation frequently have inherent non-linearities, may be affected by environmental conditions and can therefore cause calibration difficulties for the people who maintain them. Two neural network approaches are described in this paper for improving the accuracy of a non-linear, temperature sensitive level probe ised in Expermental Breeder Reactor II (EBR-II) that was difficult to calibrate
Identification of information tonality based on Bayesian approach and neural networks
Lande, D V
2008-01-01
A model of the identification of information tonality, based on Bayesian approach and neural networks was described. In the context of this paper tonality means positive or negative tone of both the whole information and its parts which are related to particular concepts. The method, its application is presented in the paper, is based on statistic regularities connected with the presence of definite lexemes in the texts. A distinctive feature of the method is its simplicity and versatility. At present ideologically similar approaches are widely used to control spam.
Artificial Neural Network applied to lightning flashes
Gin, R. B.; Guedes, D.; Bianchi, R.
2013-05-01
The development of video cameras enabled cientists to study lightning discharges comportment with more precision. The main goal of this project is to create a system able to detect images of lightning discharges stored in videos and classify them using an Artificial Neural Network (ANN)using C Language and OpenCV libraries. The developed system, can be split in two different modules: detection module and classification module. The detection module uses OpenCV`s computer vision libraries and image processing techniques to detect if there are significant differences between frames in a sequence, indicating that something, still not classified, occurred. Whenever there is a significant difference between two consecutive frames, two main algorithms are used to analyze the frame image: brightness and shape algorithms. These algorithms detect both shape and brightness of the event, removing irrelevant events like birds, as well as detecting the relevant events exact position, allowing the system to track it over time. The classification module uses a neural network to classify the relevant events as horizontal or vertical lightning, save the event`s images and calculates his number of discharges. The Neural Network was implemented using the backpropagation algorithm, and was trained with 42 training images , containing 57 lightning events (one image can have more than one lightning). TheANN was tested with one to five hidden layers, with up to 50 neurons each. The best configuration achieved a success rate of 95%, with one layer containing 20 neurons (33 test images with 42 events were used in this phase). This configuration was implemented in the developed system to analyze 20 video files, containing 63 lightning discharges previously manually detected. Results showed that all the lightning discharges were detected, many irrelevant events were unconsidered, and the event's number of discharges was correctly computed. The neural network used in this project achieved a
In the present study, multilayer perceptron (MLP) neural networks were applied to help in the diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea syndrome (OSAS). Oxygen saturation (SaO2) recordings from nocturnal pulse oximetry were used for this purpose. We performed time and spectral analysis of these signals to extract 14 features related to OSAS. The performance of two different MLP classifiers was compared: maximum likelihood (ML) and Bayesian (BY) MLP networks. A total of 187 subjects suspected of suffering from OSAS took part in the study. Their SaO2 signals were divided into a training set with 74 recordings and a test set with 113 recordings. BY-MLP networks achieved the best performance on the test set with 85.58% accuracy (87.76% sensitivity and 82.39% specificity). These results were substantially better than those provided by ML-MLP networks, which were affected by overfitting and achieved an accuracy of 76.81% (86.42% sensitivity and 62.83% specificity). Our results suggest that the Bayesian framework is preferred to implement our MLP classifiers. The proposed BY-MLP networks could be used for early OSAS detection. They could contribute to overcome the difficulties of nocturnal polysomnography (PSG) and thus reduce the demand for these studies
Applying neural networks to ultrasonographic texture recognition
Gallant, Jean-Francois; Meunier, Jean; Stampfler, Robert; Cloutier, Jocelyn
1993-09-01
A neural network was trained to classify ultrasound image samples of normal, adenomatous (benign tumor) and carcinomatous (malignant tumor) thyroid gland tissue. The samples themselves, as well as their Fourier spectrum, miscellaneous cooccurrence matrices and 'generalized' cooccurrence matrices, were successively submitted to the network, to determine if it could be trained to identify discriminating features of the texture of the image, and if not, which feature extractor would give the best results. Results indicate that the network could indeed extract some distinctive features from the textures, since it could accomplish a partial classification when trained with the samples themselves. But a significant improvement both in learning speed and performance was observed when it was trained with the generalized cooccurrence matrices of the samples.
Delayed switching applied to memristor neural networks
Wang, Frank Z.; Yang Xiao; Lim Guan [Future Computing Group, School of Computing, University of Kent, Canterbury (United Kingdom); Helian Na [School of Computer Science, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield (United Kingdom); Wu Sining [Xyratex, Havant (United Kingdom); Guo Yike [Department of Computing, Imperial College, London (United Kingdom); Rashid, Md Mamunur [CERN, Geneva (Switzerland)
2012-04-01
Magnetic flux and electric charge are linked in a memristor. We reported recently that a memristor has a peculiar effect in which the switching takes place with a time delay because a memristor possesses a certain inertia. This effect was named the ''delayed switching effect.'' In this work, we elaborate on the importance of delayed switching in a brain-like computer using memristor neural networks. The effect is used to control the switching of a memristor synapse between two neurons that fire together (the Hebbian rule). A theoretical formula is found, and the design is verified by a simulation. We have also built an experimental setup consisting of electronic memristive synapses and electronic neurons.
Delayed switching applied to memristor neural networks
Magnetic flux and electric charge are linked in a memristor. We reported recently that a memristor has a peculiar effect in which the switching takes place with a time delay because a memristor possesses a certain inertia. This effect was named the ''delayed switching effect.'' In this work, we elaborate on the importance of delayed switching in a brain-like computer using memristor neural networks. The effect is used to control the switching of a memristor synapse between two neurons that fire together (the Hebbian rule). A theoretical formula is found, and the design is verified by a simulation. We have also built an experimental setup consisting of electronic memristive synapses and electronic neurons.
Utama, R.; Piekarewicz, J.; Prosper, H. B.
2016-01-01
Background: Besides their intrinsic nuclear-structure value, nuclear mass models are essential for astrophysical applications, such as r -process nucleosynthesis and neutron-star structure. Purpose: To overcome the intrinsic limitations of existing "state-of-the-art" mass models through a refinement based on a Bayesian neural network (BNN) formalism. Methods: A novel BNN approach is implemented with the goal of optimizing mass residuals between theory and experiment. Results: A significant improvement (of about 40%) in the mass predictions of existing models is obtained after BNN refinement. Moreover, these improved results are now accompanied by proper statistical errors. Finally, by constructing a "world average" of these predictions, a mass model is obtained that is used to predict the composition of the outer crust of a neutron star. Conclusions: The power of the Bayesian neural network method has been successfully demonstrated by a systematic improvement in the accuracy of the predictions of nuclear masses. Extension to other nuclear observables is a natural next step that is currently under investigation.
Zhang, Xuesong
2011-11-01
Estimating uncertainty of hydrologic forecasting is valuable to water resources and other relevant decision making processes. Recently, Bayesian Neural Networks (BNNs) have been proved powerful tools for quantifying uncertainty of streamflow forecasting. In this study, we propose a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) framework (BNN-PIS) to incorporate the uncertainties associated with parameters, inputs, and structures into BNNs. This framework allows the structure of the neural networks to change by removing or adding connections between neurons and enables scaling of input data by using rainfall multipliers. The results show that the new BNNs outperform BNNs that only consider uncertainties associated with parameters and model structures. Critical evaluation of posterior distribution of neural network weights, number of effective connections, rainfall multipliers, and hyper-parameters shows that the assumptions held in our BNNs are not well supported. Further understanding of characteristics of and interactions among different uncertainty sources is expected to enhance the application of neural networks for uncertainty analysis of hydrologic forecasting. © 2011 Elsevier B.V.
Okut Hayrettin
2011-10-01
Full Text Available Abstract Background In the study of associations between genomic data and complex phenotypes there may be relationships that are not amenable to parametric statistical modeling. Such associations have been investigated mainly using single-marker and Bayesian linear regression models that differ in their distributions, but that assume additive inheritance while ignoring interactions and non-linearity. When interactions have been included in the model, their effects have entered linearly. There is a growing interest in non-parametric methods for predicting quantitative traits based on reproducing kernel Hilbert spaces regressions on markers and radial basis functions. Artificial neural networks (ANN provide an alternative, because these act as universal approximators of complex functions and can capture non-linear relationships between predictors and responses, with the interplay among variables learned adaptively. ANNs are interesting candidates for analysis of traits affected by cryptic forms of gene action. Results We investigated various Bayesian ANN architectures using for predicting phenotypes in two data sets consisting of milk production in Jersey cows and yield of inbred lines of wheat. For the Jerseys, predictor variables were derived from pedigree and molecular marker (35,798 single nucleotide polymorphisms, SNPS information on 297 individually cows. The wheat data represented 599 lines, each genotyped with 1,279 markers. The ability of predicting fat, milk and protein yield was low when using pedigrees, but it was better when SNPs were employed, irrespective of the ANN trained. Predictive ability was even better in wheat because the trait was a mean, as opposed to an individual phenotype in cows. Non-linear neural networks outperformed a linear model in predictive ability in both data sets, but more clearly in wheat. Conclusion Results suggest that neural networks may be useful for predicting complex traits using high
Robust Bayesian decision theory applied to optimal dosage.
Abraham, Christophe; Daurès, Jean-Pierre
2004-04-15
We give a model for constructing an utility function u(theta,d) in a dose prescription problem. theta and d denote respectively the patient state of health and the dose. The construction of u is based on the conditional probabilities of several variables. These probabilities are described by logistic models. Obviously, u is only an approximation of the true utility function and that is why we investigate the sensitivity of the final decision with respect to the utility function. We construct a class of utility functions from u and approximate the set of all Bayes actions associated to that class. Then, we measure the sensitivity as the greatest difference between the expected utilities of two Bayes actions. Finally, we apply these results to weighing up a chemotherapy treatment of lung cancer. This application emphasizes the importance of measuring robustness through the utility of decisions rather than the decisions themselves. PMID:15057878
Fijani, E.; Chitsazan, N.; Nadiri, A.; Tsai, F. T.; Asghari Moghaddam, A.
2012-12-01
Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been widely used to estimate concentration of chemicals in groundwater systems. However, estimation uncertainty is rarely discussed in the literature. Uncertainty in ANN output stems from three sources: ANN inputs, ANN parameters (weights and biases), and ANN structures. Uncertainty in ANN inputs may come from input data selection and/or input data error. ANN parameters are naturally uncertain because they are maximum-likelihood estimated. ANN structure is also uncertain because there is no unique ANN model given a specific case. Therefore, multiple plausible AI models are generally resulted for a study. One might ask why good models have to be ignored in favor of the best model in traditional estimation. What is the ANN estimation variance? How do the variances from different ANN models accumulate to the total estimation variance? To answer these questions we propose a Hierarchical Bayesian Model Averaging (HBMA) framework. Instead of choosing one ANN model (the best ANN model) for estimation, HBMA averages outputs of all plausible ANN models. The model weights are based on the evidence of data. Therefore, the HBMA avoids overconfidence on the single best ANN model. In addition, HBMA is able to analyze uncertainty propagation through aggregation of ANN models in a hierarchy framework. This method is applied for estimation of fluoride concentration in the Poldasht plain and the Bazargan plain in Iran. Unusually high fluoride concentration in the Poldasht and Bazargan plains has caused negative effects on the public health. Management of this anomaly requires estimation of fluoride concentration distribution in the area. The results show that the HBMA provides a knowledge-decision-based framework that facilitates analyzing and quantifying ANN estimation uncertainties from different sources. In addition HBMA allows comparative evaluation of the realizations for each source of uncertainty by segregating the uncertainty sources in
Pérez-Rodríguez, P; Gianola, D; Weigel, K A; Rosa, G J M; Crossa, J
2013-08-01
In recent years, several statistical models have been developed for predicting genetic values for complex traits using information on dense molecular markers, pedigrees, or both. These models include, among others, the Bayesian regularized neural networks (BRNN) that have been widely used in prediction problems in other fields of application and, more recently, for genome-enabled prediction. The R package described here (brnn) implements BRNN models and extends these to include both additive and dominance effects. The implementation takes advantage of multicore architectures via a parallel computing approach using openMP (Open Multiprocessing) for the computations. This note briefly describes the classes of models that can be fitted using the brnn package, and it also illustrates its use through several real examples. PMID:23658327
Elsheikh, Ahmed H.
2014-02-01
A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.
Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy
Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)
Rizzo, D. M.; Fytilis, N.; Stevens, L.
2012-12-01
Environmental managers are increasingly required to monitor and forecast long-term effects and vulnerability of biophysical systems to human-generated stresses. Ideally, a study involving both physical and biological assessments conducted concurrently (in space and time) could provide a better understanding of the mechanisms and complex relationships. However, costs and resources associated with monitoring the complex linkages between the physical, geomorphic and habitat conditions and the biological integrity of stream reaches are prohibitive. Researchers have used classification techniques to place individual streams and rivers into a broader spatial context (hydrologic or health condition). Such efforts require environmental managers to gather multiple forms of information - quantitative, qualitative and subjective. We research and develop a novel classification tool that combines self-organizing maps with a Naïve Bayesian classifier to direct resources to stream reaches most in need. The Vermont Agency of Natural Resources has developed and adopted protocols for physical stream geomorphic and habitat assessments throughout the state of Vermont. Separate from these assessments, the Vermont Department of Environmental Conservation monitors the biological communities and the water quality in streams. Our initial hypothesis is that the geomorphic reach assessments and water quality data may be leveraged to reduce error and uncertainty associated with predictions of biological integrity and stream health. We test our hypothesis using over 2500 Vermont stream reaches (~1371 stream miles) assessed by the two agencies. In the development of this work, we combine a Naïve Bayesian classifier with a modified Kohonen Self-Organizing Map (SOM). The SOM is an unsupervised artificial neural network that autonomously analyzes inherent dataset properties using input data only. It is typically used to cluster data into similar categories when a priori classes do not exist. The
Forecasting Baltic Dirty Tanker Index by Applying Wavelet Neural Networks
Fan, Shuangrui; JI, TINGYUN; Bergqvist, Rickard; Wilmsmeier, Gordon
2013-01-01
Baltic Exchange Dirty Tanker Index (BDTI) is an important assessment index in world dirty tanker shipping industry. Actors in the industry sector can gain numerous benefits from accurate forecasting of the BDTI. However, limitations exist in traditional stochastic and econometric explanation...... modeling techniques used in freight rate forecasting. At the same time research in shipping index forecasting e.g. BDTI applying artificial intelligent techniques is scarce. This analyses the possibilities to forecast the BDTI by applying Wavelet Neural Networks (WNN). Firstly, the characteristics of...
Bayesian survival analysis modeling applied to sensory shelf life of foods
Calle, M. Luz; Hough, Guillermo; Curia, Ana; Gómez, Guadalupe
2006-01-01
Data from sensory shelf-life studies can be analyzed using survival statistical methods. The objective of this research was to introduce Bayesian methodology to sensory shelf-life studies and discuss its advantages in relation to classical (frequentist) methods. A specific algorithm which incorporates the interval censored data from shelf-life studies is presented. Calculations were applied to whole-fat and fat-free yogurt, each tasted by 80 consumers who answered ‘‘yes’’ or ‘‘no’’ t...
We have developed a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neural electromagnetic (MEG/EEG) data that can incorporate or fuse information from other imaging modalities and addresses the ill-posed inverse problem by sarnpliig the many different solutions which could have produced the given data. From these samples one can draw probabilistic inferences about regions of activation. Our source model assumes a variable number of variable size cortical regions of stimulus-correlated activity. An active region consists of locations on the cortical surf ace, within a sphere centered on some location in cortex. The number and radi of active regions can vary to defined maximum values. The goal of the analysis is to determine the posterior probability distribution for the set of parameters that govern the number, location, and extent of active regions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to generate a large sample of sets of parameters distributed according to the posterior distribution. This sample is representative of the many different source distributions that could account for given data, and allows identification of probable (i.e. consistent) features across solutions. Examples of the use of this analysis technique with both simulated and empirical MEG data are presented
George, J.S.; Schmidt, D.M.; Wood, C.C.
1999-02-01
We have developed a Bayesian approach to the analysis of neural electromagnetic (MEG/EEG) data that can incorporate or fuse information from other imaging modalities and addresses the ill-posed inverse problem by sarnpliig the many different solutions which could have produced the given data. From these samples one can draw probabilistic inferences about regions of activation. Our source model assumes a variable number of variable size cortical regions of stimulus-correlated activity. An active region consists of locations on the cortical surf ace, within a sphere centered on some location in cortex. The number and radi of active regions can vary to defined maximum values. The goal of the analysis is to determine the posterior probability distribution for the set of parameters that govern the number, location, and extent of active regions. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to generate a large sample of sets of parameters distributed according to the posterior distribution. This sample is representative of the many different source distributions that could account for given data, and allows identification of probable (i.e. consistent) features across solutions. Examples of the use of this analysis technique with both simulated and empirical MEG data are presented.
Le Riche R.
2010-06-01
Full Text Available A major challenge in the identification of material properties is handling different sources of uncertainty in the experiment and the modelling of the experiment for estimating the resulting uncertainty in the identified properties. Numerous improvements in identification methods have provided increasingly accurate estimates of various material properties. However, characterizing the uncertainty in the identified properties is still relatively crude. Different material properties obtained from a single test are not obtained with the same confidence. Typically the highest uncertainty is associated with respect to properties to which the experiment is the most insensitive. In addition, the uncertainty in different properties can be strongly correlated, so that obtaining only variance estimates may be misleading. A possible approach for handling the different sources of uncertainty and estimating the uncertainty in the identified properties is the Bayesian method. This method was introduced in the late 1970s in the context of identification [1] and has been applied since to different problems, notably identification of elastic constants from plate vibration experiments [2]-[4]. The applications of the method to these classical pointwise tests involved only a small number of measurements (typically ten natural frequencies in the previously cited vibration test which facilitated the application of the Bayesian approach. For identifying elastic constants, full field strain or displacement measurements provide a high number of measured quantities (one measurement per image pixel and hence a promise of smaller uncertainties in the properties. However, the high number of measurements represents also a major computational challenge in applying the Bayesian approach to full field measurements. To address this challenge we propose an approach based on the proper orthogonal decomposition (POD of the full fields in order to drastically reduce their
Fuzzy neural network methodology applied to medical diagnosis
Gorzalczany, Marian B.; Deutsch-Mcleish, Mary
1992-01-01
This paper presents a technique for building expert systems that combines the fuzzy-set approach with artificial neural network structures. This technique can effectively deal with two types of medical knowledge: a nonfuzzy one and a fuzzy one which usually contributes to the process of medical diagnosis. Nonfuzzy numerical data is obtained from medical tests. Fuzzy linguistic rules describing the diagnosis process are provided by a human expert. The proposed method has been successfully applied in veterinary medicine as a support system in the diagnosis of canine liver diseases.
Study of Single Top Quark Production Using Bayesian Neural Networks With D0 Detector at the Tevatron
Joshi, Jyoti [Panjab Univ., Chandigarh (India)
2012-01-01
Top quark, the heaviest and most intriguing among the six known quarks, can be created via two independent production mechanisms in {\\pp} collisions. The primary mode, strong {\\ttbar} pair production from a $gtt$ vertex, was used by the {\\d0} and CDF collaborations to establish the existence of the top quark in March 1995. The second mode is the electroweak production of a single top quark or antiquark, which has been observed recently in March 2009. Since single top quarks are produced at hadron colliders through a $Wtb$ vertex, thereby provide a direct probe of the nature of $Wtb$ coupling and of the Cabibbo-Kobayashi-Maskawa matrix element, $V_{tb}$. So this mechanism provides a sensitive probe for several, standard model and beyond standard model, parameters such as anomalous $Wtb$ couplings. In this thesis, we measure the cross section of the electroweak produced top quark in three different production modes, $s+t$, $s$ and $t$-channels using a technique based on the Bayesian neural networks. This technique is applied for analysis of the 5.4 $fb^{-1}$ of data collected by the {\\d0} detector. From a comparison of the Bayesian neural networks discriminants between data and the signal-background model using Bayesian statistics, the cross sections of the top quark produced through the electroweak mechanism have been measured as: \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X,tqb+X) = 3.11^{+0.77}_{-0.71}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X) = 0.72^{+0.44}_{-0.43}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tqb+X) = 2.92^{+0.87}_{-0.73}\\;\\rm pb\\] % The $s+t$-channel has a gaussian significance of $4.7\\sigma$, the $s$-channel $0.9\\sigma$ and the $t$-channel~$4.7\\sigma$. The results are consistent with the standard model predictions within one standard deviation. By combining these results with the results for two other analyses (using different MVA techniques) improved results \\[\\sigma(p\\bar{p}→tb+X,tqb+X) = 3.43^{+0.73}_{-0.74}\\;\\rm pb\\] \\[\\sigma
Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species: Towards cosmology with a million supernovae
Kunz, M; Hlozek, R; Kunz, Martin; Bassett, Bruce A.; Hlozek, Renee
2006-01-01
Observed data is often contaminated by undiscovered interlopers, leading to biased parameter estimation. Here we present BEAMS (Bayesian Estimation Applied to Multiple Species) which significantly improves on the standard maximum likelihood approach in the case where the probability for each data point being `pure' is known. We discuss the application of BEAMS to future Type Ia supernovae (SNIa) surveys, such as LSST, which are projected to deliver over a million supernovae lightcurves without spectra. The multi-band lightcurves for each candidate will provide a probability of being Ia (pure) but the full sample will be significantly contaminated with other types of supernovae and transients. Given a sample of N supernovae with mean probability, P, of being Ia, BEAMS delivers parameter constraints equal to NP spectroscopically-confirmed SNIa. In addition BEAMS can be simultaneously used to tease apart different families of data and to recover properties of the underlying distributions of those families (e.g. ...
Bai, Ying; Lan, JieQin; Gao, WeiWei
2016-01-01
A toy detector array has been designed to simulate the detection of cosmic rays in Extended Air Shower(EAS) Experiments for ground-based TeV Astrophysics. The primary energies of protons from the Monte-Carlo simulation have been reconstructed by the algorithm of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and a standard method like the LHAASO experiment\\cite{lhaaso-ma}, respectively. The result of the energy reconstruction using BNNs has been compared with the one using the standard method. Compared to the standard method, the energy resolutions are significantly improved using BNNs. And the improvement is more obvious for the high energy protons than the low energy ones.
Bai, Y.; Xu, Y.; Pan, J.; Lan, J. Q.; Gao, W. W.
2016-07-01
A toy detector array is designed to detect a shower generated by the interaction between a TeV cosmic ray and the atmosphere. In the present paper, the primary energies of showers detected by the detector array are reconstructed with the algorithm of Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) and a standard method like the LHAASO experiment [1], respectively. Compared to the standard method, the energy resolutions are significantly improved using the BNNs. And the improvement is more obvious for the high energy showers than the low energy ones.
Chiel, Hillel J.; Thomas, Peter J.
2011-12-01
, the sun, earth and moon) proved to be far more difficult. In the late nineteenth century, Poincaré made significant progress on this problem, introducing a geometric method of reasoning about solutions to differential equations (Diacu and Holmes 1996). This work had a powerful impact on mathematicians and physicists, and also began to influence biology. In his 1925 book, based on his work starting in 1907, and that of others, Lotka used nonlinear differential equations and concepts from dynamical systems theory to analyze a wide variety of biological problems, including oscillations in the numbers of predators and prey (Lotka 1925). Although little was known in detail about the function of the nervous system, Lotka concluded his book with speculations about consciousness and the implications this might have for creating a mathematical formulation of biological systems. Much experimental work in the 1930s and 1940s focused on the biophysical mechanisms of excitability in neural tissue, and Rashevsky and others continued to apply tools and concepts from nonlinear dynamical systems theory as a means of providing a more general framework for understanding these results (Rashevsky 1960, Landahl and Podolsky 1949). The publication of Hodgkin and Huxley's classic quantitative model of the action potential in 1952 created a new impetus for these studies (Hodgkin and Huxley 1952). In 1955, FitzHugh published an important paper that summarized much of the earlier literature, and used concepts from phase plane analysis such as asymptotic stability, saddle points, separatrices and the role of noise to provide a deeper theoretical and conceptual understanding of threshold phenomena (Fitzhugh 1955, Izhikevich and FitzHugh 2006). The Fitzhugh-Nagumo equations constituted an important two-dimensional simplification of the four-dimensional Hodgkin and Huxley equations, and gave rise to an extensive literature of analysis. Many of the papers in this special issue build on tools
GMDH and neural networks applied in temperature sensors monitoring
In this work a monitoring system was developed based on the Group Method of Data Handling (GMDH) and Neural Networks (ANNs) methodologies. This methodology was applied to the IEA-R1 research reactor at IPEN by using a database obtained from a theoretical model of the reactor. The IEA-R1 research reactor is a pool type reactor of 5 MW, cooled and moderated by light water, and uses graphite and beryllium as reflector. The theoretical model was developed using the Matlab GUIDE toolbox. The equations are based in the IEA-R1 mass and energy inventory balance and physical as well as operational aspects are taken into consideration. This methodology was developed by using the GMDH algorithm as input variables to the ANNs. The results obtained using the GMDH and ANNs were better than that obtained using only ANNs. (author)
Assessing uncertainty in climate change impacts on water resources: Bayesian neural network approach
Climate change impact studies on water resources have so far provided results difficult to use for policy decision and planning of adaptation measures because of the lack of robust uncertainty estimates. There are various sources of uncertainty due to the global circulation models (GCMs) or the regional climate models (RCMs), the emission scenarios, the downscaling techniques, and the hydrological models. The estimation of the overall impact of those uncertainties on the future streamflow or reservoir inflow simulations at the watershed scale remains a difficult and challenging task. The use of multi-model super-ensembles in order to capture the wide range of uncertainties is cumbersome and requires large computational and human resources. As an alternative, a Bayesian Neural Network (BNN) approach is proposed as an effective hydrologic modeling tool for simulating future flows with uncertainty estimates. The BNN model is used with two versions of Canadian GCMs (CGCM1 and CGCM2) with two emission scenarios (SRES B2 and IPCC IS92a), and with one well established statistical downscaling model (SDSM) to simulate daily river flow and reservoir inflow in the Serpent River and the Chute-du-Diable watersheds in northern Quebec. It is found that the 95% uncertainty bands of the BNN mean ensemble flow (i.e. flow simulated using the mean ensemble of downscaled meteorological variables) is capable of encompassing all other possible flows corresponding to various individual downscaled meteorological ensembles whatever the CGCM and the emission scenario used. Specifically, this indicates that the BNN model confidence intervals are capable of including all possible flow variations due to various ensembles of downscaled meteorological variables from two different CGCMs and emission scenarios. Furthermore, the confidence limits of the BNN model also encompasses the flows simulated using another conceptual hydrologic model (namely HBV) whatever the GCM and the emission scenario
a Simplified Bayesian Network Model Applied in Crop or Animal Disease Diagnosis
Yu, Helong; Chen, Guifen; Liu, Dayou
Bayesian network is a powerful tool to represent and deal with uncertain knowledge. There exists much uncertainty in crop or animal disease. The construction of Bayesian network need much data and knowledge. But when data is scarce, some methods should be adopted to construct an effective Bayesian network. This paper introduces a disease diagnosis model based on Bayesian network, which is two-layered and obeys noisy-or assumption. Based on the two-layered structure, the relationship between nodes is obtained by domain knowledge. Based on the noisy-model, the conditional probability table is elicited by three methods, which are parameter learning, domain expert and the existing certainty factor model. In order to implement this model, a Bayesian network tool is developed. Finally, an example about cow disease diagnosis was implemented, which proved that the model discussed in this paper is an effective tool for some simple disease diagnosis in crop or animal field.
Neural Networks Applied to Thermal Damage Classification in Grinding Process
Spadotto, Marcelo M.; Aguiar, Paulo Roberto de; Sousa, Carlos C. P.; Bianchi, Eduardo C.
2008-01-01
The utilization of neural network of type multi-layer perceptron using the back-propagation algorithm guaranteed very good results. Tests carried out in order to optimize the learning capacity of neural networks were of utmost importance in the training phase, where the optimum values for the number of neurons of the hidden layer, learning rate and momentum for each structure were determined. Once the architecture of the neural network was established with those optimum values, the mean squar...
Artificial neural networks applied to forecasting time series
Montaño Moreno, Juan José; Palmer Pol, Alfonso; Muñoz Gracia, María del Pilar
2011-01-01
This study offers a description and comparison of the main models of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) which have proved to be useful in time series forecasting, and also a standard procedure for the practical application of ANN in this type of task. The Multilayer Perceptron (MLP), Radial Base Function (RBF), Generalized Regression Neural Network (GRNN), and Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) models are analyzed. With this aim in mind, we use a time series made up of 244 time points. A comparativ...
Galbraith, Craig S.; Merrill, Gregory B.; Kline, Doug M.
2012-01-01
In this study we investigate the underlying relational structure between student evaluations of teaching effectiveness (SETEs) and achievement of student learning outcomes in 116 business related courses. Utilizing traditional statistical techniques, a neural network analysis and a Bayesian data reduction and classification algorithm, we find…
Applying artificial neural networks in nuclear power plant diagnostics
Artificial neural networks are very effective tools in solving failure detection problems in complex plants such as nuclear power reactors and their subsidiary equipments, as they can perform parallel realizations of complicated classification processes. In the paper, after a brief historical and methodological introduction, a neural network based failure detection system is presented which has been developed for the use in the PWR units of the Nuclear Power Plant Paks (Hungary). A cellular processor array has been used to realize a back-propagation type neural network which can detect changes in the spectral features of the measured signals through off-line supervised learning processes. (authors)
Mota-Hernandez, Cinthya; Alvarado-Corona, Rafael
2014-01-01
Tectonic earthquakes of high magnitude can cause considerable losses in terms of human lives, economic and infrastructure, among others. According to an evaluation published by the U.S. Geological Survey, 30 is the number of earthquakes which have greatly impacted Mexico from the end of the XIX century to this one. Based upon data from the National Seismological Service, on the period between January 1, 2006 and May 1, 2013 there have occurred 5,826 earthquakes which magnitude has been greater than 4.0 degrees on the Richter magnitude scale (25.54% of the total of earthquakes registered on the national territory), being the Pacific Plate and the Cocos Plate the most important ones. This document describes the development of an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based on the radial topology which seeks to generate a prediction with an error margin lower than 20% which can inform about the probability of a future earthquake one of the main questions is: can artificial neural networks be applied in seismic forecast...
Topographic factor analysis: a Bayesian model for inferring brain networks from neural data.
Jeremy R Manning
Full Text Available The neural patterns recorded during a neuroscientific experiment reflect complex interactions between many brain regions, each comprising millions of neurons. However, the measurements themselves are typically abstracted from that underlying structure. For example, functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI datasets comprise a time series of three-dimensional images, where each voxel in an image (roughly reflects the activity of the brain structure(s-located at the corresponding point in space-at the time the image was collected. FMRI data often exhibit strong spatial correlations, whereby nearby voxels behave similarly over time as the underlying brain structure modulates its activity. Here we develop topographic factor analysis (TFA, a technique that exploits spatial correlations in fMRI data to recover the underlying structure that the images reflect. Specifically, TFA casts each brain image as a weighted sum of spatial functions. The parameters of those spatial functions, which may be learned by applying TFA to an fMRI dataset, reveal the locations and sizes of the brain structures activated while the data were collected, as well as the interactions between those structures.
ECO INVESTMENT PROJECT MANAGEMENT THROUGH TIME APPLYING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORKS
Tamara Gvozdenović
2007-06-01
Full Text Available he concept of project management expresses an indispensable approach to investment projects. Time is often the most important factor in these projects. The artificial neural network is the paradigm of data processing, which is inspired by the one used by the biological brain, and it is used in numerous, different fields, among which is the project management. This research is oriented to application of artificial neural networks in managing time of investment project. The artificial neural networks are used to define the optimistic, the most probable and the pessimistic time in PERT method. The program package Matlab: Neural Network Toolbox is used in data simulation. The feed-forward back propagation network is chosen.
Artificial Neural Networks Applied To Landslide Hazard Assessment
Casagli, N.; Catani, F.; Ermini, L.
Landslide hazard mapping is often performed through the identification and analysis of hillslope instability factors. GIS techniques are widely applied for the manage- ment of hillslope factors as thematic data rated by the attribution of scores based on the assumed role played by each factor controlling the development of a sliding pro- cess. Other more refined methods, based on the principle that the present and the past are keys to the future, have been also developed, thus allowing to perform less sub- jective analyses, in which landslide susceptibility is assessed by statistical relation- ships between the past landslides and the hillslope instability factors. The objective of this research is to define a method able to foresee landslide susceptibility through the application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN). The Riomaggiore catchment, a sub-watershed of the Reno River basin located in the Northern Apennine at half way between Florence and Bologna, was chosen as the test site. The utilized ANN (AiNet 1.25) was trained by vector-based GIS data corresponding to five hillslope factors: a) geology, b) slope, c), curvature, d) land cover e) contributing area. The intersection between the hillslope factors, all ranked in nominal scales, singled out 3263 homoge- neous domains (Unique Condition Unit) containing unique combinations of hillslope factors. The final model was formed by vectors in which the hillslope factors, once organized as Boolean variables, are represented by 20 binary numbers. The compari- son between the most recent inventory of the landslides in the Riomaggiore catchment and the hazardous areas, as predicted by the ANN, showed very satisfactory results and allowed us to validate the methodology.
Placek, Ben; Knuth, Kevin H. [Physics Department, University at Albany (SUNY), Albany, NY 12222 (United States); Angerhausen, Daniel, E-mail: bplacek@albany.edu, E-mail: kknuth@albany.edu, E-mail: daniel.angerhausen@gmail.com [Department of Physics, Applied Physics, and Astronomy, Rensselear Polytechnic Institute, Troy, NY 12180 (United States)
2014-11-10
EXONEST is an algorithm dedicated to detecting and characterizing the photometric signatures of exoplanets, which include reflection and thermal emission, Doppler boosting, and ellipsoidal variations. Using Bayesian inference, we can test between competing models that describe the data as well as estimate model parameters. We demonstrate this approach by testing circular versus eccentric planetary orbital models, as well as testing for the presence or absence of four photometric effects. In addition to using Bayesian model selection, a unique aspect of EXONEST is the potential capability to distinguish between reflective and thermal contributions to the light curve. A case study is presented using Kepler data recorded from the transiting planet KOI-13b. By considering only the nontransiting portions of the light curve, we demonstrate that it is possible to estimate the photometrically relevant model parameters of KOI-13b. Furthermore, Bayesian model testing confirms that the orbit of KOI-13b has a detectable eccentricity.
Prediction of fracture toughness temperature dependence applying neural network
Dlouhý, Ivo; Hadraba, Hynek; Chlup, Zdeněk; Šmída, T.
2011-01-01
Roč. 11, č. 1 (2011), s. 9-14. ISSN 1451-3749 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP108/10/0466 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : brittle to ductile transition * fracture toughness * artificial neural network * steels Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics
LVQ and backpropagation neural networks applied to NASA SSME data
Doniere, Timothy F.; Dhawan, Atam P.
1993-01-01
Feedfoward neural networks with backpropagation learning have been used as function approximators for modeling the space shuttle main engine (SSME) sensor signals. The modeling of these sensor signals is aimed at the development of a sensor fault detection system that can be used during ground test firings. The generalization capability of a neural network based function approximator depends on the training vectors which in this application may be derived from a number of SSME ground test-firings. This yields a large number of training vectors. Large training sets can cause the time required to train the network to be very large. Also, the network may not be able to generalize for large training sets. To reduce the size of the training sets, the SSME test-firing data is reduced using the learning vector quantization (LVQ) based technique. Different compression ratios were used to obtain compressed data in training the neural network model. The performance of the neural model trained using reduced sets of training patterns is presented and compared with the performance of the model trained using complete data. The LVQ can also be used as a function approximator. The performance of the LVQ as a function approximator using reduced training sets is presented and compared with the performance of the backpropagation network.
Convolutional Neural Networks Applied to House Numbers Digit Classification
Sermanet, Pierre; LeCun, Yann
2012-01-01
We classify digits of real-world house numbers using convolutional neural networks (ConvNets). ConvNets are hierarchical feature learning neural networks whose structure is biologically inspired. Unlike many popular vision approaches that are hand-designed, ConvNets can automatically learn a unique set of features optimized for a given task. We augmented the traditional ConvNet architecture by learning multi-stage features and by using Lp pooling and establish a new state-of-the-art of 94.85% accuracy on the SVHN dataset (45.2% error improvement). Furthermore, we analyze the benefits of different pooling methods and multi-stage features in ConvNets. The source code and a tutorial are available at eblearn.sf.net.
Radial basis function neural networks applied to NASA SSME data
Wheeler, Kevin R.; Dhawan, Atam P.
1993-01-01
This paper presents a brief report on the application of Radial Basis Function Neural Networks (RBFNN) to the prediction of sensor values for fault detection and diagnosis of the Space Shuttle's Main Engines (SSME). The location of the Radial Basis Function (RBF) node centers was determined with a K-means clustering algorithm. A neighborhood operation about these center points was used to determine the variances of the individual processing notes.
The Theory of Neural Cognition Applied to Robotics
Claude F. Touzet
2015-01-01
The Theory of neural Cognition (TnC) states that the brain does not process information, it only represents information (i.e., it is 'only' a memory). The TnC explains how a memory can become an actor pursuing various goals, and proposes explanations concerning the implementation of a large variety of cognitive abilities, such as attention, memory, language, planning, intelligence, emotions, motivation, pleasure, consciousness and personality. The explanatory power of this new framework exten...
Proteomics Applied to Porcine and Human Neural Stem Cell Differentiation
Mairychová, Kateřina; Skalníková, Helena; Tylečková, Jiřina; Halada, Petr; Marsala, M.; Kovářová, Hana
Liběchov : Institute of Animal Physiology and Genetics AS CR, v.v.i, 2010. s. 61-61. [Informal Proteomic Meeting 2010. 09.11.2010-10.11.2010, Liblice] R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0538; GA MŠk(CZ) ME10044 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z50450515; CEZ:AV0Z50200510 Keywords : proteomics * cell differentiation * neural stem cell s Subject RIV: FH - Neurology
Prediction of fracture toughness temperature dependence applying neural Network
Dlouhý, Ivo; Hadraba, Hynek; Chlup, Zdeněk; Šmida, T.
Metz: LaBPS, 2010, s. 1-9. [NT2F10 – New Trends in Fatigue and Fracture CongressMetz. Metz (FR), 30.08.2010-01.09.2010] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP107/10/0361 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : brittle to ductile transition * fracture toughness * artificial neural network
Humphrey, Greer B.; Gibbs, Matthew S.; Dandy, Graeme C.; Maier, Holger R.
2016-09-01
Monthly streamflow forecasts are needed to support water resources decision making in the South East of South Australia, where baseflow represents a significant proportion of the total streamflow and soil moisture and groundwater are important predictors of runoff. To address this requirement, the utility of a hybrid monthly streamflow forecasting approach is explored, whereby simulated soil moisture from the GR4J conceptual rainfall-runoff model is used to represent initial catchment conditions in a Bayesian artificial neural network (ANN) statistical forecasting model. To assess the performance of this hybrid forecasting method, a comparison is undertaken of the relative performances of the Bayesian ANN, the GR4J conceptual model and the hybrid streamflow forecasting approach for producing 1-month ahead streamflow forecasts at three key locations in the South East of South Australia. Particular attention is paid to the quantification of uncertainty in each of the forecast models and the potential for reducing forecast uncertainty by using the hybrid approach is considered. Case study results suggest that the hybrid models developed in this study are able to take advantage of the complementary strengths of both the ANN models and the GR4J conceptual models. This was particularly the case when forecasting high flows, where the hybrid models were shown to outperform the two individual modelling approaches in terms of the accuracy of the median forecasts, as well as reliability and resolution of the forecast distributions. In addition, the forecast distributions generated by the hybrid models were up to 8 times more precise than those based on climatology; thus, providing a significant improvement on the information currently available to decision makers.
Fernandez Prades, Carles; Vilà Valls, Jordi
2010-01-01
This paper shows the applicability of recently-developed Gaussian nonlinear filters to sensor data fusion for positioning purposes. After providing a brief review of Bayesian nonlinear filtering, we specially address square-root, derivative-free algorithms based on the Gaussian assumption and approximation rules for numerical integration, namely the Gauss-Hermite quadrature rule and the cubature rule. Then, we propose a motion model based on the observations taken by an Inertial Measurement U...
Bayesian estimation for a parametric Markov Renewal model applied to seismic data
Epifani, I.; Ladelli, L.; Pievatolo, A.
2014-01-01
This paper presents a complete methodology for Bayesian inference on a semi-Markov process, from the elicitation of the prior distribution, to the computation of posterior summaries, including a guidance for its implementation. The inter-occurrence times (conditional on the transition between two given states) are assumed to be Weibull-distributed. We examine the elicitation of the joint prior density of the shape and scale parameters of the Weibull distributions, deriving a specific class of...
Bayesian Statistical Analysis Applied to NAA Data for Neutron Flux Spectrum Determination
Chiesa, D.; Previtali, E.; Sisti, M.
2014-04-01
In this paper, we present a statistical method, based on Bayesian statistics, to evaluate the neutron flux spectrum from the activation data of different isotopes. The experimental data were acquired during a neutron activation analysis (NAA) experiment [A. Borio di Tigliole et al., Absolute flux measurement by NAA at the Pavia University TRIGA Mark II reactor facilities, ENC 2012 - Transactions Research Reactors, ISBN 978-92-95064-14-0, 22 (2012)] performed at the TRIGA Mark II reactor of Pavia University (Italy). In order to evaluate the neutron flux spectrum, subdivided in energy groups, we must solve a system of linear equations containing the grouped cross sections and the activation rate data. We solve this problem with Bayesian statistical analysis, including the uncertainties of the coefficients and the a priori information about the neutron flux. A program for the analysis of Bayesian hierarchical models, based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulations, is used to define the problem statistical model and solve it. The energy group fluxes and their uncertainties are then determined with great accuracy and the correlations between the groups are analyzed. Finally, the dependence of the results on the prior distribution choice and on the group cross section data is investigated to confirm the reliability of the analysis.
A new method of data analysis, based on mathematical models of neural nets (artificial neural nets) is applied for background rejection in γ-ray astronomy experiments. The result proofs advantages of proposed technique compared to Bayesian approach
Neural Implementation of Probabilistic Models of Cognition
Kharratzadeh, Milad; Shultz, Thomas R.
2015-01-01
Bayesian models of cognition hypothesize that human brains make sense of data by representing probability distributions and applying Bayes' rule to find the best explanation for available data. Understanding the neural mechanisms underlying probabilistic models remains important because Bayesian models provide a computational framework, rather than specifying mechanistic processes. Here, we propose a deterministic neural-network model which estimates and represents probability distributions f...
A neural network applied to estimate Burr XII distribution parameters
The Burr XII distribution can closely approximate many other well-known probability density functions such as the normal, gamma, lognormal, exponential distributions as well as Pearson type I, II, V, VII, IX, X, XII families of distributions. Considering a wide range of shape and scale parameters of the Burr XII distribution, it can have an important role in reliability modeling, risk analysis and process capability estimation. However, estimating parameters of the Burr XII distribution can be a complicated task and the use of conventional methods such as maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) and moment method (MM) is not straightforward. Some tables to estimate Burr XII parameters have been provided by Burr (1942) but they are not adequate for many purposes or data sets. Burr tables contain specific values of skewness and kurtosis and their corresponding Burr XII parameters. Using interpolation or extrapolation to estimate other values may provide inappropriate estimations. In this paper, we present a neural network to estimate Burr XII parameters for different values of skewness and kurtosis as inputs. A trained network is presented, and one can use it without previous knowledge about neural networks to estimate Burr XII distribution parameters. Accurate estimation of the Burr parameters is an extension of simulation studies.
Neural network applied to elemental archaeological Marajoara ceramic compositions
In the last decades several analytical techniques have been used in archaeological ceramics studies. However, instrumental neutron activation analysis, INAA, employing gamma-ray spectrometry seems to be the most suitable technique because it is a simple analytical method in its purely instrumental form. The purpose of this work was to determine the concentration of Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Eu, Fe, Hf, K, La, Lu, Na, Nd, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sm, Ta, Tb, Th, U, Yb, and Zn in 160 original marajoara ceramic fragments by INAA. Marajoara ceramics culture was sophisticated and well developed. This culture reached its peak during the V and XIV centuries in Marajo Island located on the Amazon River delta area in Brazil. The purpose of the quantitative data was to identify compositionally homogeneous groups within the database. Having this in mind, the data set was first converted to base-10 logarithms to compensate for the differences in magnitude between major elements and trace elements, and also to yield a closer to normal distribution for several trace elements. After that, the data were analyzed using the Mahalanobis distance and using the lambda Wilks as critical value to identify the outliers. The similarities among the samples were studied by means of cluster analysis, principal components analysis and discriminant analysis. Additional confirmation of these groups was made by using elemental concentration bivariate plots. The results showed that there were two very well defined groups in the data set. In addition, the database was studied using artificial neural network with unsupervised learning strategy known as self-organizing maps to classify the marajoara ceramics. The experiments carried out showed that self-organizing maps artificial neural network is capable of discriminating ceramic fragments like multivariate statistical methods, and, again the results showed that the database was formed by two groups. (author)
Neural network applied to elemental archaeological Marajoara ceramic compositions
Toyota, Rosimeiri G.; Munita, Casimiro S., E-mail: rosimeiritoy@yahoo.com.b, E-mail: camunita@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil); Boscarioli, Clodis, E-mail: boscarioli@gmail.co [Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Parana, Cascavel, PR (Brazil). Centro de Ciencias Exatas e Tecnologicas. Colegiado de Informatica; Hernandez, Emilio D.M., E-mail: boscarioli@gmail.co [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Neves, Eduardo G.; Demartini, Celia C., E-mail: eduardo@pq.cnpq.b [Museu de Arqueologia e Etnologia (MAE/USP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)
2009-07-01
In the last decades several analytical techniques have been used in archaeological ceramics studies. However, instrumental neutron activation analysis, INAA, employing gamma-ray spectrometry seems to be the most suitable technique because it is a simple analytical method in its purely instrumental form. The purpose of this work was to determine the concentration of Ce, Co, Cr, Cs, Eu, Fe, Hf, K, La, Lu, Na, Nd, Rb, Sb, Sc, Sm, Ta, Tb, Th, U, Yb, and Zn in 160 original marajoara ceramic fragments by INAA. Marajoara ceramics culture was sophisticated and well developed. This culture reached its peak during the V and XIV centuries in Marajo Island located on the Amazon River delta area in Brazil. The purpose of the quantitative data was to identify compositionally homogeneous groups within the database. Having this in mind, the data set was first converted to base-10 logarithms to compensate for the differences in magnitude between major elements and trace elements, and also to yield a closer to normal distribution for several trace elements. After that, the data were analyzed using the Mahalanobis distance and using the lambda Wilks as critical value to identify the outliers. The similarities among the samples were studied by means of cluster analysis, principal components analysis and discriminant analysis. Additional confirmation of these groups was made by using elemental concentration bivariate plots. The results showed that there were two very well defined groups in the data set. In addition, the database was studied using artificial neural network with unsupervised learning strategy known as self-organizing maps to classify the marajoara ceramics. The experiments carried out showed that self-organizing maps artificial neural network is capable of discriminating ceramic fragments like multivariate statistical methods, and, again the results showed that the database was formed by two groups. (author)
Applying deep neural networks to HEP job classification
Wang, L.; Shi, J.; Yan, X.
2015-12-01
The cluster of IHEP computing center is a middle-sized computing system which provides 10 thousands CPU cores, 5 PB disk storage, and 40 GB/s IO throughput. Its 1000+ users come from a variety of HEP experiments. In such a system, job classification is an indispensable task. Although experienced administrator can classify a HEP job by its IO pattern, it is unpractical to classify millions of jobs manually. We present how to solve this problem with deep neural networks in a supervised learning way. Firstly, we built a training data set of 320K samples by an IO pattern collection agent and a semi-automatic process of sample labelling. Then we implemented and trained DNNs models with Torch. During the process of model training, several meta-parameters was tuned with cross-validations. Test results show that a 5- hidden-layer DNNs model achieves 96% precision on the classification task. By comparison, it outperforms a linear model by 8% precision.
A SIMULATION OF THE PENICILLIN G PRODUCTION BIOPROCESS APPLYING NEURAL NETWORKS
A.J.G. da Cruz
1997-12-01
Full Text Available The production of penicillin G by Penicillium chrysogenum IFO 8644 was simulated employing a feedforward neural network with three layers. The neural network training procedure used an algorithm combining two procedures: random search and backpropagation. The results of this approach were very promising, and it was observed that the neural network was able to accurately describe the nonlinear behavior of the process. Besides, the results showed that this technique can be successfully applied to control process algorithms due to its long processing time and its flexibility in the incorporation of new data
Bayesian Source Separation Applied to Identifying Complex Organic Molecules in Space
Knuth, Kevin H; Choinsky, Joshua; Maunu, Haley A; Carbon, Duane F
2014-01-01
Emission from a class of benzene-based molecules known as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) dominates the infrared spectrum of star-forming regions. The observed emission appears to arise from the combined emission of numerous PAH species, each with its unique spectrum. Linear superposition of the PAH spectra identifies this problem as a source separation problem. It is, however, of a formidable class of source separation problems given that different PAH sources potentially number in the hundreds, even thousands, and there is only one measured spectral signal for a given astrophysical site. Fortunately, the source spectra of the PAHs are known, but the signal is also contaminated by other spectral sources. We describe our ongoing work in developing Bayesian source separation techniques relying on nested sampling in conjunction with an ON/OFF mechanism enabling simultaneous estimation of the probability that a particular PAH species is present and its contribution to the spectrum.
Bayesian artificial intelligence
Korb, Kevin B
2010-01-01
Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente
Cai, C. [CEA, LIST, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette, France and CNRS, SUPELEC, UNIV PARIS SUD, L2S, 3 rue Joliot-Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Rodet, T.; Mohammad-Djafari, A. [CNRS, SUPELEC, UNIV PARIS SUD, L2S, 3 rue Joliot-Curie, 91192 Gif-sur-Yvette (France); Legoupil, S. [CEA, LIST, 91191 Gif-sur-Yvette (France)
2013-11-15
Purpose: Dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) makes it possible to get two fractions of basis materials without segmentation. One is the soft-tissue equivalent water fraction and the other is the hard-matter equivalent bone fraction. Practical DECT measurements are usually obtained with polychromatic x-ray beams. Existing reconstruction approaches based on linear forward models without counting the beam polychromaticity fail to estimate the correct decomposition fractions and result in beam-hardening artifacts (BHA). The existing BHA correction approaches either need to refer to calibration measurements or suffer from the noise amplification caused by the negative-log preprocessing and the ill-conditioned water and bone separation problem. To overcome these problems, statistical DECT reconstruction approaches based on nonlinear forward models counting the beam polychromaticity show great potential for giving accurate fraction images.Methods: This work proposes a full-spectral Bayesian reconstruction approach which allows the reconstruction of high quality fraction images from ordinary polychromatic measurements. This approach is based on a Gaussian noise model with unknown variance assigned directly to the projections without taking negative-log. Referring to Bayesian inferences, the decomposition fractions and observation variance are estimated by using the joint maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimation method. Subject to an adaptive prior model assigned to the variance, the joint estimation problem is then simplified into a single estimation problem. It transforms the joint MAP estimation problem into a minimization problem with a nonquadratic cost function. To solve it, the use of a monotone conjugate gradient algorithm with suboptimal descent steps is proposed.Results: The performance of the proposed approach is analyzed with both simulated and experimental data. The results show that the proposed Bayesian approach is robust to noise and materials. It is also
Apply Multi-Layer Perceptrons Neural Network for Off-Line Signature Verification and Recognition
Suhail Odeh
2011-11-01
Full Text Available This paper discusses the applying of Multi-layer perceptrons for signature verification and recognition using a new approach enables the user to recognize whether a signature is original or a fraud. The approach starts by scanning images into the computer, then modifying their quality through image enhancement and noise reduction, followed by feature extraction and neural network training, and finally verifies the authenticity of the signature. The paper discusses the different stages of the process including: image pre-processing, feature extraction and pattern recognition through neural networks.
The Bayesian statistical decision theory applied to the optimization of generating set maintenance
The difficulty in RCM methodology is the allocation of a new periodicity of preventive maintenance on one equipment when a critical failure has been identified: until now this new allocation has been based on the engineer's judgment, and one must wait for a full cycle of feedback experience before to validate it. Statistical decision theory could be a more rational alternative for the optimization of preventive maintenance periodicity. This methodology has been applied to inspection and maintenance optimization of cylinders of diesel generator engines of 900 MW nuclear plants, and has shown that previous preventive maintenance periodicity can be extended. (authors). 8 refs., 5 figs
Artificial neural networks applied to quantitative elemental analysis of organic material using PIXE
An artificial neural network (ANN) has been trained with real-sample PIXE (particle X-ray induced emission) spectra of organic substances. Following the training stage ANN was applied to a subset of similar samples thus obtaining the elemental concentrations in muscle, liver and gills of Cyprinus carpio. Concentrations obtained with the ANN method are in full agreement with results from one standard analytical procedure, showing the high potentiality of ANN in PIXE quantitative analyses
Artificial neural networks applied to quantitative elemental analysis of organic material using PIXE
Correa, R. [Universidad Tecnologica Metropolitana, Departamento de Fisica, Av. Jose Pedro Alessandri 1242, Nunoa, Santiago (Chile)]. E-mail: rcorrea@utem.cl; Chesta, M.A. [Universidad Nacional de Cordoba, Facultad de Matematica, Astronomia y Fisica, Medina Allende s/n Ciudad Universitaria, 5000 Cordoba (Argentina)]. E-mail: chesta@famaf.unc.edu.ar; Morales, J.R. [Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Fisica, Las Palmeras 3425, Nunoa, Santiago (Chile)]. E-mail: rmorales@uchile.cl; Dinator, M.I. [Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Fisica, Las Palmeras 3425, Nunoa, Santiago (Chile)]. E-mail: mdinator@uchile.cl; Requena, I. [Universidad de Granada, Departamento de Ciencias de la Computacion e Inteligencia Artificial, Daniel Saucedo Aranda s/n, 18071 Granada (Spain)]. E-mail: requena@decsai.ugr.es; Vila, I. [Universidad de Chile, Facultad de Ciencias, Departamento de Ecologia, Las Palmeras 3425, Nunoa, Santiago (Chile)]. E-mail: limnolog@uchile.cl
2006-08-15
An artificial neural network (ANN) has been trained with real-sample PIXE (particle X-ray induced emission) spectra of organic substances. Following the training stage ANN was applied to a subset of similar samples thus obtaining the elemental concentrations in muscle, liver and gills of Cyprinus carpio. Concentrations obtained with the ANN method are in full agreement with results from one standard analytical procedure, showing the high potentiality of ANN in PIXE quantitative analyses.
Applying the multivariate time-rescaling theorem to neural population models.
Gerhard, Felipe; Haslinger, Robert; Pipa, Gordon
2011-06-01
Statistical models of neural activity are integral to modern neuroscience. Recently interest has grown in modeling the spiking activity of populations of simultaneously recorded neurons to study the effects of correlations and functional connectivity on neural information processing. However, any statistical model must be validated by an appropriate goodness-of-fit test. Kolmogorov-Smirnov tests based on the time-rescaling theorem have proven to be useful for evaluating point-process-based statistical models of single-neuron spike trains. Here we discuss the extension of the time-rescaling theorem to the multivariate (neural population) case. We show that even in the presence of strong correlations between spike trains, models that neglect couplings between neurons can be erroneously passed by the univariate time-rescaling test. We present the multivariate version of the time-rescaling theorem and provide a practical step-by-step procedure for applying it to testing the sufficiency of neural population models. Using several simple analytically tractable models and more complex simulated and real data sets, we demonstrate that important features of the population activity can be detected only using the multivariate extension of the test. PMID:21395436
Bar-On, Lynn; Desloovere, Kaat; Molenaers, Guy; Harlaar, J.; Kindt, T; Aertbeliën, Erwin
2014-01-01
Clinical assessment of spasticity is compromised by the difficulty to distinguish neural from non-neural components of increased joint torque. Quantifying the contributions of each of these components is crucial to optimize the selection of anti-spasticity treatments such as botulinum toxin (BTX). The aim of this study was to compare different biomechanical parameters that quantify the neural contribution to ankle joint torque measured during manually-applied passive stretches to the gastrocs...
Ant colony optimization and neural networks applied to nuclear power plant monitoring
Santos, Gean Ribeiro dos; Andrade, Delvonei Alves de; Pereira, Iraci Martinez, E-mail: gean@usp.br, E-mail: delvonei@ipen.br, E-mail: martinez@ipen.br [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)
2015-07-01
A recurring challenge in production processes is the development of monitoring and diagnosis systems. Those systems help on detecting unexpected changes and interruptions, preventing losses and mitigating risks. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been extensively used in creating monitoring systems. Usually the ANNs created to solve this kind of problem are created by taking into account only parameters as the number of inputs, outputs, and hidden layers. The result networks are generally fully connected and have no improvements in its topology. This work intends to use an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm to create a tuned neural network. The ACO search algorithm will use Back Error Propagation (BP) to optimize the network topology by suggesting the best neuron connections. The result ANN will be applied to monitoring the IEA-R1 research reactor at IPEN. (author)
Ant colony optimization and neural networks applied to nuclear power plant monitoring
A recurring challenge in production processes is the development of monitoring and diagnosis systems. Those systems help on detecting unexpected changes and interruptions, preventing losses and mitigating risks. Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) have been extensively used in creating monitoring systems. Usually the ANNs created to solve this kind of problem are created by taking into account only parameters as the number of inputs, outputs, and hidden layers. The result networks are generally fully connected and have no improvements in its topology. This work intends to use an Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm to create a tuned neural network. The ACO search algorithm will use Back Error Propagation (BP) to optimize the network topology by suggesting the best neuron connections. The result ANN will be applied to monitoring the IEA-R1 research reactor at IPEN. (author)
Classification of brain compartments and head injury lesions by neural networks applied to MRI
An automatic, neural network-based approach was applied to segment normal brain compartments and lesions on MR images. Two supervised networks, backpropagation (BPN) and counterpropagation, and two unsupervised networks, Kohonen learning vector quantizer and analog adaptive resonance theory, were trained on registered T2-weighted and proton density images. The classes of interest were background, gray matter, white matter, cerebrospinal fluid, macrocystic encephalomalacia, gliosis, and 'unknown'. A comprehensive feature vector was chosen to discriminate these classes. The BPN combined with feature conditioning, multiple discriminant analysis followed by Hotelling transform, produced the most accurate and consistent classification results. Classifications of normal brain compartments were generally in agreement with expert interpretation of the images. Macrocystic encephalomalacia and gliosis were recognized and, except around the periphery, classified in agreement with the clinician's report used to train the neural network. (orig.)
Gordóvil-Merino, Amalia; Guàrdia-Olmos, Joan; Peró-Cebollero, Maribel; de la Fuente-Solanas, Emilia I
2010-04-01
The limitations inherent to classical estimation of the logistic regression models are known. The Bayesian approach in statistical analysis is an alternative to be considered, given that it makes it possible to introduce prior information about the phenomenon under study. The aim of the present work is to analyze binary and multinomial logistic regression simple models estimated by means of a Bayesian approach in comparison to classical estimation. To that effect, Child Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder (ADHD) clinical data were analyzed. The sample included 286 participants of 6-12 years (78% boys, 22% girls) with ADHD positive diagnosis in 86.7% of the cases. The results show a reduction of standard errors associated to the coefficients obtained from the Bayesian analysis, thus bringing a greater stability to the coefficients. Complex models where parameter estimation may be easily compromised could benefit from this advantage. PMID:20524554
APPLYING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK OPTIMIZED BY FIREWORKS ALGORITHM FOR STOCK PRICE ESTIMATION
Khuat Thanh Tung
2016-04-01
Full Text Available Stock prediction is to determine the future value of a company stock dealt on an exchange. It plays a crucial role to raise the profit gained by firms and investors. Over the past few years, many methods have been developed in which plenty of efforts focus on the machine learning framework achieving the promising results. In this paper, an approach based on Artificial Neural Network (ANN optimized by Fireworks algorithm and data preprocessing by Haar Wavelet is applied to estimate the stock prices. The system was trained and tested with real data of various companies collected from Yahoo Finance. The obtained results are encouraging.
Rubin, Donald B.
1981-01-01
The Bayesian bootstrap is the Bayesian analogue of the bootstrap. Instead of simulating the sampling distribution of a statistic estimating a parameter, the Bayesian bootstrap simulates the posterior distribution of the parameter; operationally and inferentially the methods are quite similar. Because both methods of drawing inferences are based on somewhat peculiar model assumptions and the resulting inferences are generally sensitive to these assumptions, neither method should be applied wit...
We present, in this paper, a new unsupervised method for joint image super-resolution and separation between smooth and point sources. For this purpose, we propose a Bayesian approach with a Markovian model for the smooth part and Student’s t-distribution for point sources. All model and noise parameters are considered unknown and should be estimated jointly with images. However, joint estimators (joint MAP or posterior mean) are intractable and an approximation is needed. Therefore, a new gradient-like variational Bayesian method is applied to approximate the true posterior by a free-form separable distribution. A parametric form is obtained by approximating marginals but with form parameters that are mutually dependent. Their optimal values are achieved by iterating them till convergence. The method was tested by the model-generated data and a real dataset from the Herschel space observatory. (paper)
Boulanger, Jean-Philippe; Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C.
2007-02-01
Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the “state-of-the-art” of
Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia
1990-01-01
In the paper at hand we apply it to Bayesian statistics to obtain "Fuzzy Bayesian Inference". In the subsequent sections we will discuss a fuzzy valued likelihood function, Bayes' theorem for both fuzzy data and fuzzy priors, a fuzzy Bayes' estimator, fuzzy predictive densities and distributions, and fuzzy H.P.D .-Regions. (author's abstract)
Mike Lonergan
2011-01-01
Full Text Available For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies. Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity. We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimating adult population size and investigating alternative biological models. The method is equivalent to fitting a density-dependent Leslie matrix model, within a Bayesian framework, but with the forms of the density-dependent effects as outputs rather than assumptions. It requires fewer assumptions than the state space models currently used and produces similar estimates. We discuss the potential and limitations of the method and suggest that this approach provides a useful tool for at least the preliminary analysis of similar datasets.
Mike Lonergan; Dave Thompson; Len Thomas; Callan Duck
2011-01-01
1. For British grey seals, as with many pinniped species, population monitoring is implemented by aerial surveys of pups at breeding colonies. Scaling pup counts up to population estimates requires assumptions about population structure; this is straightforward when populations are growing exponentially, but not when growth slows, since it is unclear whether density dependence affects pup survival or fecundity. 2. We present an approximate Bayesian method for fitting pup trajectories, estimat...
Boulanger, Jean-Philippe [LODYC, UMR CNRS/IRD/UPMC, Tour 45-55/Etage 4/Case 100, UPMC, Paris Cedex 05 (France); University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmosfera y los Oceanos, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Martinez, Fernando; Segura, Enrique C. [University of Buenos Aires, Departamento de Computacion, Facultad de Ciencias Exactas y Naturales, Buenos Aires (Argentina)
2007-02-15
Evaluating the response of climate to greenhouse gas forcing is a major objective of the climate community, and the use of large ensemble of simulations is considered as a significant step toward that goal. The present paper thus discusses a new methodology based on neural network to mix ensemble of climate model simulations. Our analysis consists of one simulation of seven Atmosphere-Ocean Global Climate Models, which participated in the IPCC Project and provided at least one simulation for the twentieth century (20c3m) and one simulation for each of three SRES scenarios: A2, A1B and B1. Our statistical method based on neural networks and Bayesian statistics computes a transfer function between models and observations. Such a transfer function was then used to project future conditions and to derive what we would call the optimal ensemble combination for twenty-first century climate change projections. Our approach is therefore based on one statement and one hypothesis. The statement is that an optimal ensemble projection should be built by giving larger weights to models, which have more skill in representing present climate conditions. The hypothesis is that our method based on neural network is actually weighting the models that way. While the statement is actually an open question, which answer may vary according to the region or climate signal under study, our results demonstrate that the neural network approach indeed allows to weighting models according to their skills. As such, our method is an improvement of existing Bayesian methods developed to mix ensembles of simulations. However, the general low skill of climate models in simulating precipitation mean climatology implies that the final projection maps (whatever the method used to compute them) may significantly change in the future as models improve. Therefore, the projection results for late twenty-first century conditions are presented as possible projections based on the &apos
Wilson, M T; Fung, P K; Robinson, P A; Shemmell, J; Reynolds, J N J
2016-08-01
The calcium dependent plasticity (CaDP) approach to the modeling of synaptic weight change is applied using a neural field approach to realistic repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) protocols. A spatially-symmetric nonlinear neural field model consisting of populations of excitatory and inhibitory neurons is used. The plasticity between excitatory cell populations is then evaluated using a CaDP approach that incorporates metaplasticity. The direction and size of the plasticity (potentiation or depression) depends on both the amplitude of stimulation and duration of the protocol. The breaks in the inhibitory theta-burst stimulation protocol are crucial to ensuring that the stimulation bursts are potentiating in nature. Tuning the parameters of a spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) window with a Monte Carlo approach to maximize agreement between STDP predictions and the CaDP results reproduces a realistically-shaped window with two regions of depression in agreement with the existing literature. Developing understanding of how TMS interacts with cells at a network level may be important for future investigation. PMID:27259518
Neural Network Blind Equalization Algorithm Applied in Medical CT Image Restoration
Yunshan Sun
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A new algorithm for iterative blind image restoration is presented in this paper. The method extends blind equalization found in the signal case to the image. A neural network blind equalization algorithm is derived and used in conjunction with Zigzag coding to restore the original image. As a result, the effect of PSF can be removed by using the proposed algorithm, which contributes to eliminate intersymbol interference (ISI. In order to obtain the estimation of the original image, what is proposed in this method is to optimize constant modulus blind equalization cost function applied to grayscale CT image by using conjugate gradient method. Analysis of convergence performance of the algorithm verifies the feasibility of this method theoretically; meanwhile, simulation results and performance evaluations of recent image quality metrics are provided to assess the effectiveness of the proposed method.
Caballero, Julio; Fernández, Michael
2006-01-01
Antifungal activity was modeled for a set of 96 heterocyclic ring derivatives (2,5,6-trisubstituted benzoxazoles, 2,5-disubstituted benzimidazoles, 2-substituted benzothiazoles and 2-substituted oxazolo(4,5-b)pyridines) using multiple linear regression (MLR) and Bayesian-regularized artificial neural network (BRANN) techniques. Inhibitory activity against Candida albicans (log(1/C)) was correlated with 3D descriptors encoding the chemical structures of the heterocyclic compounds. Training and test sets were chosen by means of k-Means Clustering. The most appropriate variables for linear and nonlinear modeling were selected using a genetic algorithm (GA) approach. In addition to the MLR equation (MLR-GA), two nonlinear models were built, model BRANN employing the linear variable subset and an optimum model BRANN-GA obtained by a hybrid method that combined BRANN and GA approaches (BRANN-GA). The linear model fit the training set (n = 80) with r2 = 0.746, while BRANN and BRANN-GA gave higher values of r2 = 0.889 and r2 = 0.937, respectively. Beyond the improvement of training set fitting, the BRANN-GA model was superior to the others by being able to describe 87% of test set (n = 16) variance in comparison with 78 and 81% the MLR-GA and BRANN models, respectively. Our quantitative structure-activity relationship study suggests that the distributions of atomic mass, volume and polarizability have relevant relationships with the antifungal potency of the compounds studied. Furthermore, the ability of the six variables selected nonlinearly to differentiate the data was demonstrated when the total data set was well distributed in a Kohonen self-organizing neural network (KNN). PMID:16205958
Bayesian exploratory factor analysis
Gabriella Conti; Sylvia Frühwirth-Schnatter; James Heckman; Rémi Piatek
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identifi cation criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study c...
Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study co...
Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis
Gabriella Conti; Sylvia Fruehwirth-Schnatter; Heckman, James J.; Remi Piatek
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on \\emph{ad hoc} classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo s...
Bayesian exploratory factor analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.; Piatek, Rémi
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo st...
Bayesian exploratory factor analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James; Piatek, Rémi
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study co...
In this work a new monitoring and fault detection methodology was developed using GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) algorithm and artificial neural networks (ANNs) which was applied in the IEA-R1 research reactor at IPEN. The monitoring and fault detection system was developed in two parts: the first was dedicated to preprocess information, using GMDH algorithm; and the second to the process information using ANNs. The preprocess information was divided in two parts. In the first part, the GMDH algorithm was used to generate a better database estimate, called matrix z, which was used to train the ANNs. In the second part the GMDH was used to study the best set of variables to be used to train the ANNs, resulting in a best monitoring variable estimative. The methodology was developed and tested using five different models: one theoretical model and for models using different sets of reactor variables. After an exhausting study dedicated to the sensors monitoring, the fault detection in sensors was developed by simulating faults in the sensors database using values of +5%, +10%, +15% and +20% in these sensors database. The good results obtained through the present methodology shows the viability of using GMDH algorithm in the study of the best input variables to the ANNs, thus making possible the use of these methods in the implementation of a new monitoring and fault detection methodology applied in sensors. (author)
Bueno, Elaine Inacio [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia, Guarulhos, SP (Brazil); Pereira, Iraci Martinez; Silva, Antonio Teixeira e, E-mail: martinez@ipen.b, E-mail: teixeira@ipen.b [Instituto de Pesquisas Energeticas e Nucleares (IPEN/CNEN-SP), Sao Paulo, SP (Brazil)
2011-07-01
In this work a new monitoring and fault detection methodology was developed using GMDH (Group Method of Data Handling) algorithm and artificial neural networks (ANNs) which was applied in the IEA-R1 research reactor at IPEN. The monitoring and fault detection system was developed in two parts: the first was dedicated to preprocess information, using GMDH algorithm; and the second to the process information using ANNs. The preprocess information was divided in two parts. In the first part, the GMDH algorithm was used to generate a better database estimate, called matrix z, which was used to train the ANNs. In the second part the GMDH was used to study the best set of variables to be used to train the ANNs, resulting in a best monitoring variable estimative. The methodology was developed and tested using five different models: one theoretical model and for models using different sets of reactor variables. After an exhausting study dedicated to the sensors monitoring, the fault detection in sensors was developed by simulating faults in the sensors database using values of +5%, +10%, +15% and +20% in these sensors database. The good results obtained through the present methodology shows the viability of using GMDH algorithm in the study of the best input variables to the ANNs, thus making possible the use of these methods in the implementation of a new monitoring and fault detection methodology applied in sensors. (author)
Pabisek, Ewa; Waszczyszyn, Zenon
2015-12-01
A new hybrid computational system for material identification (HCSMI) is presented, developed for the identification of homogeneous, elastic, isotropic plate parameters. Attention is focused on the construction of dispersion curves, related to Lamb waves. The main idea of the system HCSMI lies in separation of two essential basic computational stages, corresponding to direct or inverse analyses. In the frame of the first stage an experimental dispersion curve DCexp is constructed, applying Guided Wave Measurement (GWM) technique. Then, in the other stage, corresponding to the inverse analysis, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is trained 'off line'. The substitution of results of the first stage, treated as inputs of the ANN, gives the values of identified plate parameters. In such a way no iteration is needed, unlike to the classical approach. In such an approach, the "distance" between the approximate experimental curves DCexp and dispersion curves DCnum obtained in the direct analysis, is iteratively minimized. Two case studies are presented, corresponding either to measurements in laboratory tests or those related to pseudo-experimental noisy data of computer simulations. The obtained results prove high numerical efficiency of HCSMI, applied to the identification of aluminum plate parameters.
ÖRKÇÜ, H. Hasan; Mustafa İsa DOĞAN; Örkçü, Mediha
2015-01-01
Backpropagation algorithm is classical technique used in the training of the artificial neural networks. Since this algorithm has many disadvantages, the training of the neural networks has been implemented with various optimization methods. In this paper, a hybrid intelligent model, i.e., hybridGSA, is developed to training artificial neural networks (ANN) and undertaking data classification problems. The hybrid intelligent system aims to exploit the advantages of genetic and simulated annea...
Applying long short-term memory recurrent neural networks to intrusion detection
Ralf C. Staudemeyer
2015-07-01
Full Text Available We claim that modelling network traffic as a time series with a supervised learning approach, using known genuine and malicious behaviour, improves intrusion detection. To substantiate this, we trained long short-term memory (LSTM recurrent neural networks with the training data provided by the DARPA / KDD Cup ’99 challenge. To identify suitable LSTM-RNN network parameters and structure we experimented with various network topologies. We found networks with four memory blocks containing two cells each offer a good compromise between computational cost and detection performance. We applied forget gates and shortcut connections respectively. A learning rate of 0.1 and up to 1,000 epochs showed good results. We tested the performance on all features and on extracted minimal feature sets respectively. We evaluated different feature sets for the detection of all attacks within one network and also to train networks specialised on individual attack classes. Our results show that the LSTM classifier provides superior performance in comparison to results previously published results of strong static classifiers. With 93.82% accuracy and 22.13 cost, LSTM outperforms the winning entries of the KDD Cup ’99 challenge by far. This is due to the fact that LSTM learns to look back in time and correlate consecutive connection records. For the first time ever, we have demonstrated the usefulness of LSTM networks to intrusion detection.
Towards a Supra-Bayesian Approach to Merging of Information
Sečkárová, Vladimíra
Prague: Institute of Information Theory and Automation, 2011, s. 81-86. ISBN 978-80-903834-6-3. [The 2nd International Workshop od Decision Making with Multiple Imperfect Decision Makers. Held in Conjunction with the 25th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2011). Sierra Nevada (ES), 16.12.2011-16.12.2011] R&D Projects: GA MŠk 1M0572; GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : decision makers * Supra-Bayesian * Bayesian solution * Merging Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/seckarova-towards a supra-bayesian approach to merging of information.pdf
Lawrence N Kazembe
Full Text Available Despite remarkable gains in life expectancy and declining mortality in the 21st century, in many places mostly in developing countries, adult mortality has increased in part due to HIV/AIDS or continued abject poverty levels. Moreover many factors including behavioural, socio-economic and demographic variables work simultaneously to impact on risk of mortality. Understanding risk factors of adult mortality is crucial towards designing appropriate public health interventions. In this paper we proposed a structured additive two-part random effects regression model for adult mortality data. Our proposal assumed two processes: (i whether death occurred in the household (prevalence part, and (ii number of reported deaths, if death did occur (severity part. The proposed model specification therefore consisted of two generalized linear mixed models (GLMM with correlated random effects that permitted structured and unstructured spatial components at regional level. Specifically, the first part assumed a GLMM with a logistic link and the second part explored a count model following either a Poisson or negative binomial distribution. The model was used to analyse adult mortality data of 25,793 individuals from the 2006/2007 Namibian DHS data. Inference is based on the Bayesian framework with appropriate priors discussed.
Satish Kumar
2012-09-01
Full Text Available In this study, a method of artificial neural network applied for the solution of inverse kinematics of 2-link serial chain manipulator. The method is multilayer perceptrons neural network has applied. This unsupervised method learns the functional relationship between input (Cartesian space and output (joint space based on a localized adaptation of the mapping, by using the manipulator itself under joint control and adapting the solution based on a comparison between the resulting locations of the manipulator's end effectors in Cartesian space with the desired location. Even when a manipulator is not available; the approach is still valid if the forward kinematic equations are used as a model of the manipulator. The forward kinematic equations always have a unique solution, and the resulting Neural net can be used as a starting point for further refinement when the manipulator does become available. Artificial neural network especially MLP are used to learn the forward and the inverse kinematic equations of two degrees freedom robot arm. A set of some data sets were first generated as per the formula equation for this the input parameter X and Y coordinates in inches. Using these data sets was basis for the training and evaluation or testing the MLP model. Out of the sets data points, maximum were used as training data and some were used for testing for MLP. Backpropagation algorithm was used for training the network and for updating the desired weights. In this work epoch based training method was applied.
Boltzmann learning of parameters in cellular neural networks
Hansen, Lars Kai
1992-01-01
The use of Bayesian methods to design cellular neural networks for signal processing tasks and the Boltzmann machine learning rule for parameter estimation is discussed. The learning rule can be used for models with hidden units, or for completely unsupervised learning. The latter is exemplified ...... unsupervised adaptation of an image segmentation cellular network. The learning rule is applied to adaptive segmentation of satellite imagery......The use of Bayesian methods to design cellular neural networks for signal processing tasks and the Boltzmann machine learning rule for parameter estimation is discussed. The learning rule can be used for models with hidden units, or for completely unsupervised learning. The latter is exemplified by...
XU Min; ZENG Guang-ming; XU Xin-yi; HUANG Guo-he; SUN Wei; JIANG Xiao-yun
2005-01-01
Bayesian regularized BP neural network(BRBPNN) technique was applied in the chlorophyll-a prediction of Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake. Through BP network interpolation method, the input and output samples of the network were obtained. After the selection of input variables using stepwise/multiple linear regression method in SPSS 11.0 software, the BRBPNN model was established between chlorophyll-a and environmental parameters, biological parameters. The achieved optimal network structure was 3-11-1 with the correlation coefficients and the mean square errors for the training set and the test set as 0.999 and 0.00078426, 0.981 and 0.0216 respectively. The sum of square weights between each input neuron and the hidden layer of optimal BRBPNN models of different structures indicated that the effect of individual input parameter on chlorophyll-a declined in the order of alga amount > secchi disc depth(SD) > electrical conductivity (EC) . Additionally, it also demonstrated that the contributions of these three factors were the maximal for the change of chlorophyll-a concentration, total phosphorus(TP) and total nitrogen(TN) were the minimal. All the results showed that BRBPNN model was capable of automated regularization parameter selection and thus it may ensure the excellent generation ability and robustness. Thus, this study laid the foundation for the application of BRBPNN model in the analysis of aquatic ecological data(chlorophyll-a prediction) and the explanation about the effective eutrophication treatment measures for Nanzui water area in Dongting Lake.
Menon, Prahlad G.; Morris, Lailonny; Staines, Mara; Lima, Joao; Lee, Daniel C.; Gopalakrishnan, Vanathi
2014-03-01
Characterization of regional left ventricular (LV) function may have application in prognosticating timely response and informing choice therapy in patients with ischemic cardiomyopathy. The purpose of this study is to characterize LV function through a systematic analysis of 4D (3D + time) endocardial motion over the cardiac cycle in an effort to define objective, clinically useful metrics of pathological remodeling and declining cardiac performance, using standard cardiac MRI data for two distinct patient cohorts accessed from CardiacAtlas.org: a) MESA - a cohort of asymptomatic patients; and b) DETERMINE - a cohort of symptomatic patients with a history of ischemic heart disease (IHD) or myocardial infarction. The LV endocardium was segmented and a signed phase-to-phase Hausdorff distance (HD) was computed at 3D uniformly spaced points tracked on segmented endocardial surface contours, over the cardiac cycle. An LV-averaged index of phase-to-phase endocardial displacement (P2PD) time-histories was computed at each tracked point, using the HD computed between consecutive cardiac phases. Average and standard deviation in P2PD over the cardiac cycle was used to prepare characteristic curves for the asymptomatic and IHD cohort. A novel biomarker of RMS error between mean patient-specific characteristic P2PD over the cardiac cycle for each individual patient and the cumulative P2PD characteristic of a cohort of asymptomatic patients was established as the RMS-P2PD marker. The novel RMS-P2PD marker was tested as a cardiac function based feature for automatic patient classification using a Bayesian Rule Learning (BRL) framework. The RMS-P2PD biomarker indices were significantly different for the symptomatic patient and asymptomatic control cohorts (pcardiac performance.
Akhbardeh, Alireza; Junnila, Sakari; Koivuluoma, Mikko; Koivistoinen, Teemu; Värri, Alpo
2006-12-01
As we know, singular value decomposition (SVD) is designed for computing singular values (SVs) of a matrix. Then, if it is used for finding SVs of an [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.]-by-1 or 1-by- [InlineEquation not available: see fulltext.] array with elements representing samples of a signal, it will return only one singular value that is not enough to express the whole signal. To overcome this problem, we designed a new kind of the feature extraction method which we call ''time-frequency moments singular value decomposition (TFM-SVD).'' In this new method, we use statistical features of time series as well as frequency series (Fourier transform of the signal). This information is then extracted into a certain matrix with a fixed structure and the SVs of that matrix are sought. This transform can be used as a preprocessing stage in pattern clustering methods. The results in using it indicate that the performance of a combined system including this transform and classifiers is comparable with the performance of using other feature extraction methods such as wavelet transforms. To evaluate TFM-SVD, we applied this new method and artificial neural networks (ANNs) for ballistocardiogram (BCG) data clustering to look for probable heart disease of six test subjects. BCG from the test subjects was recorded using a chair-like ballistocardiograph, developed in our project. This kind of device combined with automated recording and analysis would be suitable for use in many places, such as home, office, and so forth. The results show that the method has high performance and it is almost insensitive to BCG waveform latency or nonlinear disturbance.
Koivistoinen Teemu
2007-01-01
Full Text Available As we know, singular value decomposition (SVD is designed for computing singular values (SVs of a matrix. Then, if it is used for finding SVs of an -by-1 or 1-by- array with elements representing samples of a signal, it will return only one singular value that is not enough to express the whole signal. To overcome this problem, we designed a new kind of the feature extraction method which we call ''time-frequency moments singular value decomposition (TFM-SVD.'' In this new method, we use statistical features of time series as well as frequency series (Fourier transform of the signal. This information is then extracted into a certain matrix with a fixed structure and the SVs of that matrix are sought. This transform can be used as a preprocessing stage in pattern clustering methods. The results in using it indicate that the performance of a combined system including this transform and classifiers is comparable with the performance of using other feature extraction methods such as wavelet transforms. To evaluate TFM-SVD, we applied this new method and artificial neural networks (ANNs for ballistocardiogram (BCG data clustering to look for probable heart disease of six test subjects. BCG from the test subjects was recorded using a chair-like ballistocardiograph, developed in our project. This kind of device combined with automated recording and analysis would be suitable for use in many places, such as home, office, and so forth. The results show that the method has high performance and it is almost insensitive to BCG waveform latency or nonlinear disturbance.
Alpo Värri
2007-01-01
Full Text Available As we know, singular value decomposition (SVD is designed for computing singular values (SVs of a matrix. Then, if it is used for finding SVs of an m-by-1 or 1-by-m array with elements representing samples of a signal, it will return only one singular value that is not enough to express the whole signal. To overcome this problem, we designed a new kind of the feature extraction method which we call ‘‘time-frequency moments singular value decomposition (TFM-SVD.’’ In this new method, we use statistical features of time series as well as frequency series (Fourier transform of the signal. This information is then extracted into a certain matrix with a fixed structure and the SVs of that matrix are sought. This transform can be used as a preprocessing stage in pattern clustering methods. The results in using it indicate that the performance of a combined system including this transform and classifiers is comparable with the performance of using other feature extraction methods such as wavelet transforms. To evaluate TFM-SVD, we applied this new method and artificial neural networks (ANNs for ballistocardiogram (BCG data clustering to look for probable heart disease of six test subjects. BCG from the test subjects was recorded using a chair-like ballistocardiograph, developed in our project. This kind of device combined with automated recording and analysis would be suitable for use in many places, such as home, office, and so forth. The results show that the method has high performance and it is almost insensitive to BCG waveform latency or nonlinear disturbance.
A Modular Neural Network Scheme Applied to Fault Diagnosis in Electric Power Systems
Agustín Flores
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This work proposes a new method for fault diagnosis in electric power systems based on neural modules. With this method the diagnosis is performed by assigning a neural module for each type of component comprising the electric power system, whether it is a transmission line, bus or transformer. The neural modules for buses and transformers comprise two diagnostic levels which take into consideration the logic states of switches and relays, both internal and back-up, with the exception of the neural module for transmission lines which also has a third diagnostic level which takes into account the oscillograms of fault voltages and currents as well as the frequency spectrums of these oscillograms, in order to verify if the transmission line had in fact been subjected to a fault. One important advantage of the diagnostic system proposed is that its implementation does not require the use of a network configurator for the system; it does not depend on the size of the power network nor does it require retraining of the neural modules if the power network increases in size, making its application possible to only one component, a specific area, or the whole context of the power system.
Development of an intelligent system for tool wear monitoring applying neural networks
A. Antić
2005-12-01
Full Text Available Purpose: The objective of the researches presented in the paper is to investigate, in laboratory conditions, the application possibilities of the proposed system for tool wear monitoring in hard turning, using modern tools and artificial intelligence (AI methods.Design/methodology/approach: On the basic theoretical principles and the use of computing methods of simulation and neural network training, as well as the conducted experiments, have been directed to investigate the adequacy of the setting.Findings: The paper presents tool wear monitoring for hard turning for certain types of neural network configurations where there are preconditions for up building with dynamic neural networks.Research limitations/implications: Future researches should include the integration of the proposed system into CNC machine, instead of the current separate system, which would provide synchronisation between the system and the machine, i.e. the appropriate reaction by the machine after determining excessive tool wear.Practical implications: Practical application of the conducted research is possible with certain restrictions and supplement of adequate number of experimental researches which would be directed towards certain combinations of machining materials and tools for which neural networks are trained.Originality/value: The contribution of the conducted research is observed in one possible view of the tool monitoring system model and it’s designing on modular principle, and principle building neural network.
Shokoufe Tayyebi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Biosurfactants are surface active compounds produced by various microorganisms. Production of biosurfactants via fermentation of immiscible wastes has the dual benefit of creating economic opportunities for manufacturers, while improving environmental health. A predictor system, recommended in such processes, must be scaled-up. Hence, four neural networks were developed for the dynamic modeling of the biosurfactant production kinetics, in presence of soybean oil or refinery wastes including acid oil, deodorizer distillate and soap stock. Each proposed feed forward neural network consists of three layers which are not fully connected. The input and output data for the training and validation of the neural network models were gathered from batch fermentation experiments. The proposed neural network models were evaluated by three statistical criteria (R2, RMSE and SE. The typical regression analysis showed high correlation coefficients greater than 0.971, demonstrating that the neural network is an excellent estimator for prediction of biosurfactant production kinetic data in a two phase liquid-liquid batch fermentation system. In addition, sensitivity analysis indicates that residual oil has the significant effect (i.e. 49% on the biosurfactant in the process.
Sensitivity analysis by neural networks applied to power systems transient stability
Lotufo, Anna Diva P.; Lopes, Mara Lucia M.; Minussi, Carlos R. [Departamento de Engenharia Eletrica, UNESP, Campus de Ilha Solteira, Av. Brasil, 56, 15385-000 Ilha Solteira, SP (Brazil)
2007-05-15
This work presents a procedure for transient stability analysis and preventive control of electric power systems, which is formulated by a multilayer feedforward neural network. The neural network training is realized by using the back-propagation algorithm with fuzzy controller and adaptation of the inclination and translation parameters of the nonlinear function. These procedures provide a faster convergence and more precise results, if compared to the traditional back-propagation algorithm. The adaptation of the training rate is effectuated by using the information of the global error and global error variation. After finishing the training, the neural network is capable of estimating the security margin and the sensitivity analysis. Considering this information, it is possible to develop a method for the realization of the security correction (preventive control) for levels considered appropriate to the system, based on generation reallocation and load shedding. An application for a multimachine power system is presented to illustrate the proposed methodology. (author)
Zhang, Zhijun; Li, Zhijun; Zhang, Yunong; Luo, Yamei; Li, Yuanqing
2015-12-01
We propose a dual-arm cyclic-motion-generation (DACMG) scheme by a neural-dynamic method, which can remedy the joint-angle-drift phenomenon of a humanoid robot. In particular, according to a neural-dynamic design method, first, a cyclic-motion performance index is exploited and applied. This cyclic-motion performance index is then integrated into a quadratic programming (QP)-type scheme with time-varying constraints, called the time-varying-constrained DACMG (TVC-DACMG) scheme. The scheme includes the kinematic motion equations of two arms and the time-varying joint limits. The scheme can not only generate the cyclic motion of two arms for a humanoid robot but also control the arms to move to the desired position. In addition, the scheme considers the physical limit avoidance. To solve the QP problem, a recurrent neural network is presented and used to obtain the optimal solutions. Computer simulations and physical experiments demonstrate the effectiveness and the accuracy of such a TVC-DACMG scheme and the neural network solver. PMID:26340789
Prediction of fracture toughness transition from tensile test data applying neural network
Dlouhý, Ivo; Hadraba, Hynek; Chlup, Zdeněk; Válka, Libor; Žák, L.
Baltimore, Maryland : ASME, 2011. s. 1-6 R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP108/10/0466 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20410507 Keywords : Fracture toughness * Low alloy steel * Tensile test * Artificial neural network Subject RIV: JL - Materials Fatigue, Friction Mechanics
Applying of neural networks in determination of replacement cycle of spare parts
The article shows neural networks applicability to determine expected working time of equipment components before the damage. The results based on measure - simulated values of suggested model have been presented. Advantages of suggested model have been analyzed compared to traditional way of replacement of spare parts and components. Implementation possibility of suggested model in Management Information Maintenance System has been described. (author)
RBF-Type Artificial Neural Network Model Applied in Alloy Design of Steels
YOU Wei; LIU Ya-xiu; BAI Bing-zhe; FANG Hong-sheng
2008-01-01
RBF model, a new type of artificial neural network model was developed to design the content of carbon in low-alloy engineering steels. The errors of the ANN model are. MSE 0. 052 1, MSRE 17. 85%, and VOF 1. 932 9. The results obtained are satisfactory. The method is a powerful aid for designing new steels.
Jonas eKaplan
2015-03-01
Full Text Available Here we highlight an emerging trend in the use of machine learning classifiers to test for abstraction across patterns of neural activity. When a classifier algorithm is trained on data from one cognitive context, and tested on data from another, conclusions can be drawn about the role of a given brain region in representing information that abstracts across those cognitive contexts. We call this kind of analysis Multivariate Cross-Classification (MVCC, and review several domains where it has recently made an impact. MVCC has been important in establishing correspondences among neural patterns across cognitive domains, including motor-perception matching and cross-sensory matching. It has been used to test for similarity between neural patterns evoked by perception and those generated from memory. Other work has used MVCC to investigate the similarity of representations for semantic categories across different kinds of stimulus presentation, and in the presence of different cognitive demands. We use these examples to demonstrate the power of MVCC as a tool for investigating neural abstraction and discuss some important methodological issues related to its application.
Bayesian Exploratory Factor Analysis
Conti, Gabriella; Frühwirth-Schnatter, Sylvia; Heckman, James J.;
2014-01-01
This paper develops and applies a Bayesian approach to Exploratory Factor Analysis that improves on ad hoc classical approaches. Our framework relies on dedicated factor models and simultaneously determines the number of factors, the allocation of each measurement to a unique factor, and the...... corresponding factor loadings. Classical identification criteria are applied and integrated into our Bayesian procedure to generate models that are stable and clearly interpretable. A Monte Carlo study confirms the validity of the approach. The method is used to produce interpretable low dimensional aggregates...
A NOVEL METHODOLOGY FOR CONSTRUCTING RULE-BASED NAÏVE BAYESIAN CLASSIFIERS
Abdallah Alashqur
2015-02-01
Full Text Available Classification is an important data mining technique that is used by many applications. Several types of classifiers have been described in the research literature. Example classifiers are decision tree classifiers, rule-based classifiers, and neural networks classifiers. Another popular classification technique is naïve Bayesian classification. Naïve Bayesian classification is a probabilistic classification approach that uses Bayesian Theorem to predict the classes of unclassified records. A drawback of Naïve Bayesian Classification is that every time a new data record is to be classified, the entire dataset needs to be scanned in order to apply a set of equations that perform the classification. Scanning the dataset is normally a very costly step especially if the dataset is very large. To alleviate this problem, a new approach for using naïve Bayesian classification is introduced in this study. In this approach, a set of classification rules is constructed on top of naïve Bayesian classifier. Hence we call this approach Rule-based Naïve Bayesian Classifier (RNBC. In RNBC, the dataset is canned only once, off-line, at the time of building the classification rule set. Subsequent scanning of the dataset, is avoided. Furthermore, this study introduces a simple three-step methodology for constructing the classification rule set.
Willingness to purchase Genetically Modified food: an analysis applying artificial Neural Networks
Salazar-Ordóñez, M.; Rodríguez-Entrena, M.; Becerra-Alonso, D.
2014-01-01
Findings about consumer decision-making process regarding GM food purchase remain mixed and are inconclusive. This paper offers a model which classifies willingness to purchase GM food, using data from 399 surveys in Southern Spain. Willingness to purchase has been measured using three dichotomous questions and classification, based on attitudinal, cognitive and socio-demographic factors, has been made by an artificial neural network model. The results show 74% accuracy to forecast the willin...
Applying long short-term memory recurrent neural networks to intrusion detection
Ralf C. Staudemeyer
2015-01-01
We claim that modelling network traffic as a time series with a supervised learning approach, using known genuine and malicious behaviour, improves intrusion detection. To substantiate this, we trained long short-term memory (LSTM) recurrent neural networks with the training data provided by the DARPA / KDD Cup ’99 challenge. To identify suitable LSTM-RNN network parameters and structure we experimented with various network topologies. We found networks with four memory blocks containing ...
Jonas Kaplan; Steve Grant Greening
2015-01-01
Here we highlight an emerging trend in the use of machine learning classifiers to test for abstraction across patterns of neural activity. When a classifier algorithm is trained on data from one cognitive context, and tested on data from another, conclusions can be drawn about the role of a given brain region in representing information that abstracts across those cognitive contexts. We call this kind of analysis Multivariate Cross-Classification (MVCC), and review several domains where it...
J.Maria Mont Lorenzo
2001-01-01
The aim of this research is the use of the artificial neural networks models, specifically Multilayer Perceptrons trained by the algorithm known as Backpropagation to estimate the free housing prices. This methodology allows, through the training of the backpropagated nets, to estimate the houses prices on the basis of some variables, related to the houses, which are considered relevant (location, age, surface, quality, ...), overcoming the linear restrictions characteristic of the traditiona...
A neural fuzzy model applied to hydrogen peroxide bleaching of non-wood soda pulps
Rosal, Antonio; Valls Vidal, Cristina; Ferrer, Ana; Rodríguez, Alejandro
2012-01-01
A neural fuzzy model was used to examine the influence of pulp bleaching variables of empty fruit bunches from oil palm (EFB) and Hesperaloe funifera, such as soda concentration (0.5-3%), hydrogen peroxide concentration (1-10%) and processing time (1-3 h), on Kappa number, brightness and viscosity. The experimental results are reproduced with errors below 10% and 15% for EFB and H. funifera, respectively. Bleaching pulp simulation permits to obtain optimal values of the operating variables, s...
Bayesian least squares deconvolution
Asensio Ramos, A.; Petit, P.
2015-11-01
Aims: We develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods: We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results: We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.
Bayesian least squares deconvolution
Ramos, A Asensio
2015-01-01
Aims. To develop a fully Bayesian least squares deconvolution (LSD) that can be applied to the reliable detection of magnetic signals in noise-limited stellar spectropolarimetric observations using multiline techniques. Methods. We consider LSD under the Bayesian framework and we introduce a flexible Gaussian Process (GP) prior for the LSD profile. This prior allows the result to automatically adapt to the presence of signal. We exploit several linear algebra identities to accelerate the calculations. The final algorithm can deal with thousands of spectral lines in a few seconds. Results. We demonstrate the reliability of the method with synthetic experiments and we apply it to real spectropolarimetric observations of magnetic stars. We are able to recover the magnetic signals using a small number of spectral lines, together with the uncertainty at each velocity bin. This allows the user to consider if the detected signal is reliable. The code to compute the Bayesian LSD profile is freely available.
Lesaffre, Emmanuel
2012-01-01
The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd
Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development
Belinda Hernández
2015-12-01
In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.
In computational physics proton transfer phenomena could be viewed as pattern classification problems based on a set of input features allowing classification of the proton motion into two categories: transfer ‘occurred’ and transfer ‘not occurred’. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the use of artificial neural networks in the classification of proton transfer events, based on the feed-forward back propagation neural network, used as a classifier to distinguish between the two transfer cases. In this paper, we use a new developed data mining and pattern recognition tool for automating, controlling, and drawing charts of the output data of an Empirical Valence Bond existing code. The study analyzes the need for pattern recognition in aqueous proton transfer processes and how the learning approach in error back propagation (multilayer perceptron algorithms) could be satisfactorily employed in the present case. We present a tool for pattern recognition and validate the code including a real physical case study. The results of applying the artificial neural networks methodology to crowd patterns based upon selected physical properties (e.g., temperature, density) show the abilities of the network to learn proton transfer patterns corresponding to properties of the aqueous environments, which is in turn proved to be fully compatible with previous proton transfer studies. (condensed matter: structural, mechanical, and thermal properties)
Draper, D.
2001-01-01
© 2012 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC. All rights reserved. Article Outline: Glossary Definition of the Subject and Introduction The Bayesian Statistical Paradigm Three Examples Comparison with the Frequentist Statistical Paradigm Future Directions Bibliography
Garl
2016-07-01
Full Text Available Eric L Garland,1,2 Matthew O Howard,3 Sarah E Priddy,1 Patrick A McConnell,4 Michael R Riquino,1 Brett Froeliger4 1College of Social Work, 2Hunstsman Cancer Institute, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA; 3School of Social Work, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA; 4Department of Neuroscience, Medical University of South Carolina, Charleston, SC, USA Abstract: Dual-process models from neuroscience suggest that addiction is driven by dysregulated interactions between bottom-up neural processes underpinning reward learning and top-down neural functions subserving executive function. Over time, drug use causes atrophy in prefrontally mediated cognitive control networks and hijacks striatal circuits devoted to processing natural rewards in service of compulsive seeking of drug-related reward. In essence, mindfulness-based interventions (MBIs can be conceptualized as mental training programs for exercising, strengthening, and remediating these functional brain networks. This review describes how MBIs may remediate addiction by regulating frontostriatal circuits, thereby restoring an adaptive balance between these top-down and bottom-up processes. Empirical evidence is presented suggesting that MBIs facilitate cognitive control over drug-related automaticity, attentional bias, and drug cue reactivity, while enhancing responsiveness to natural rewards. Findings from the literature are incorporated into an integrative account of the neural mechanisms of mindfulness-based therapies for effecting positive behavior change in the context of addiction recovery. Implications of our theoretical framework are presented with respect to how these insights can inform the addiction therapy process. Keywords: mindfulness, frontostriatal, savoring, cue reactivity, hedonic dysregulation, reward, addiction
Imaging regenerating bone tissue based on neural networks applied to micro-diffraction measurements
Campi, G.; Pezzotti, G. [Institute of Crystallography, CNR, via Salaria Km 29.300, I-00015, Monterotondo Roma (Italy); Fratini, M. [Centro Fermi -Museo Storico della Fisica e Centro Studi e Ricerche ' Enrico Fermi' , Roma (Italy); Ricci, A. [Deutsches Elektronen-Synchrotron DESY, Notkestraße 85, D-22607 Hamburg (Germany); Burghammer, M. [European Synchrotron Radiation Facility, B. P. 220, F-38043 Grenoble Cedex (France); Cancedda, R.; Mastrogiacomo, M. [Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, and Dipartimento di Medicina Sperimentale dell' Università di Genova and AUO San Martino Istituto Nazionale per la Ricerca sul Cancro, Largo R. Benzi 10, 16132, Genova (Italy); Bukreeva, I.; Cedola, A. [Institute for Chemical and Physical Process, CNR, c/o Physics Dep. at Sapienza University, P-le A. Moro 5, 00185, Roma (Italy)
2013-12-16
We monitored bone regeneration in a tissue engineering approach. To visualize and understand the structural evolution, the samples have been measured by X-ray micro-diffraction. We find that bone tissue regeneration proceeds through a multi-step mechanism, each step providing a specific diffraction signal. The large amount of data have been classified according to their structure and associated to the process they came from combining Neural Networks algorithms with least square pattern analysis. In this way, we obtain spatial maps of the different components of the tissues visualizing the complex kinetic at the base of the bone regeneration.
Antoniou, Constantinos; Harrison, Glenn W.; Lau, Morten I.;
2015-01-01
A large literature suggests that many individuals do not apply Bayes’ Rule when making decisions that depend on them correctly pooling prior information and sample data. We replicate and extend a classic experimental study of Bayesian updating from psychology, employing the methods of experimenta...
Artificial neural networks applied in the spectrometry of a 239Pu-Be source
To explore the potential use of a neutron source and to define the procedure to handle it under safety conditions, features like neutron spectrum and the ambient dose equivalent of the source must be known. The aim of this work was to determine the spectrum, the total fluence rate and the ambient dose equivalent of a 185 GBq 239Pu-Be neutron source. Using Monte Carlo methods the spectrum, the total fluence rate, and the ambient dose equivalent of a 239Pu-Be were calculated. The spectrum was calculated at 50, 100, 200 and 300 cm from the source in air using MCNP X and MCNP 4C codes. The neutron spectrum was also obtained, at 100 cm, using a Bonner sphere spectrometer whose count rates were used to unfold the neutron spectrum, the unfolding was carried out using an Artificial Neural Network for neutron spectrometry. With the spectrum, the total neutron fluence and the ambient dose equivalent were determined. Calculated results were compared with measured values where Monte Carlo results were smaller than those measured. These differences were attributed to the presence of 241Pu during the source manufacturing. In order to match calculated and measured quantities a 0.102 w/o of 241Pu was estimated. After corrections the differences between calculated and experimental results were 1%. This result shows the advantages of using Artificial Neural Networks technology in the unfolding of neutron spectrum using as a single piece of information the count rates of a Bonner sphere spectrometer. (author)
Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS
Ntzoufras, Ioannis
2009-01-01
A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...
Saro Lee
2016-02-01
Full Text Available The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS. These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50% and a test set (50%. A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10% was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%. Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, ‘slope’ yielded the highest weight value (1.330, and ‘aspect’ yielded the lowest value (1.000. This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.
Saro, Lee; Woo, Jeon Seong; Kwan-Young, Oh; Moung-Jin, Lee
2016-02-01
The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs) followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering forest, geophysical, soil and topographic data, was built on the study area using the Geographical Information System (GIS). These factors were analysed using artificial neural network (ANN) and logistic regression models to generate a landslide susceptibility map. The study validates the landslide susceptibility map by comparing them with landslide occurrence areas. The locations of landslide occurrence were divided randomly into a training set (50%) and a test set (50%). A training set analyse the landslide susceptibility map using the artificial network along with logistic regression models, and a test set was retained to validate the prediction map. The validation results revealed that the artificial neural network model (with an accuracy of 80.10%) was better at predicting landslides than the logistic regression model (with an accuracy of 77.05%). Of the weights used in the artificial neural network model, `slope' yielded the highest weight value (1.330), and `aspect' yielded the lowest value (1.000). This research applied two statistical analysis methods in a GIS and compared their results. Based on the findings, we were able to derive a more effective method for analyzing landslide susceptibility.
The Governmental Resolution of the RK 'Program of Medical Rehabilitation for People Influenced by Nuclear Tests at STS in 1949-1990' was published in March 1997. Implementation of the program requires first of all to create the effective methods of operative diagnostics of arid zones' population. To our mind, for this aims systems analysis with elements of neural network classification is more effective. We demonstrate such an approach using the example of the modem diagnostics system creating to detect the pre-pathological states among population by express analysis and personal particulars. The following considerations were used in the base of the training set: 1) any formalism must be based oneself upon wealth of phenomenology (experience, intuition, the presence of symptoms); 2) typical attributes of disease can be divided on 2 groups - subjective and objective. The common state of patient is characterised by the first group and it can have no intercommunication with disease. The second one is obtained by laboratory inspection and it is not connected with patient sensations. Each of the objective at-tributes can be the attribute of several illnesses at once. In this case both the subjective and objective features must be used together; 3) acceptability of any scheme can be substantiated only statistically. The question about justifiability and sufficiency of training set always demands separate discussion. Personal particulars are more available for creating training set. The set must be professionally oriented in order to reduce of selection effects. For our experiment the fully-connected neural network ( computer software, imitating the work of neural computer) 'Multi Neuron' was chosen. Feature space using for the net work was created from the 206 personal particulars. The research aimed to determine pre-pathological states of the urinary system organs among industrial, office and professional workers in the mining industry connected with phosphorus
Loredo, T J
2004-01-01
I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation--Inference--Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data--measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object--show the approach can significantly improve observational eff...
Cancilla, John C; Perez, Ana; Wierzchoś, Kacper; Torrecilla, José S
2016-03-01
A series of models based on artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been designed to estimate the thermophysical properties of different amino acid-based ionic liquids (AAILs). Three different databases of AAILs were modeled using these algorithms with the goal set to estimate the density, viscosity, refractive index, ionic conductivity, and thermal expansion coefficient, and requiring only data regarding temperature and electronic polarizability of the chemicals. Additionally, a global model was designed combining all of the databases to determine the robustness of the method. In general, the results were successful, reaching mean prediction errors below 1% in many cases, as well as a statistically reliable and accurate global model. Attaining these successful models is a relevant fact as AAILs are novel biodegradable and biocompatible compounds which may soon make their way into the health sector forming a part of useful biomedical applications. Therefore, understanding the behavior and being able to estimate their thermophysical properties becomes crucial. PMID:26899458
An Artificial Neural Network has been designed, trained and tested to unfold neutron spectra and simultaneously to calculate equivalent doses. A set of 187 neutron spectra compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency and 13 equivalent doses were used in the artificial neural network designed, trained and tested. In order to design the neural network was used the robust design of artificial neural networks methodology, which assures that the quality of the neural networks takes into account from the design stage. Unless previous works, here, for first time a group of neural networks were designed and trained to unfold 187 neutron spectra and at the same time to calculate 13 equivalent doses, starting from the count rates coming from the Bonner spheres system by using a systematic and experimental strategy. (Author)
Martinez B, M.R.; Ortiz R, J.M.; Vega C, H.R. [UAZ, Av. Ramon Lopez Velarde No. 801, 98000 Zacatecas (Mexico)
2006-07-01
An Artificial Neural Network has been designed, trained and tested to unfold neutron spectra and simultaneously to calculate equivalent doses. A set of 187 neutron spectra compiled by the International Atomic Energy Agency and 13 equivalent doses were used in the artificial neural network designed, trained and tested. In order to design the neural network was used the robust design of artificial neural networks methodology, which assures that the quality of the neural networks takes into account from the design stage. Unless previous works, here, for first time a group of neural networks were designed and trained to unfold 187 neutron spectra and at the same time to calculate 13 equivalent doses, starting from the count rates coming from the Bonner spheres system by using a systematic and experimental strategy. (Author)
Towards Distributed Bayesian Estimation A Short Note on Selected Aspects
Dedecius, Kamil; Sečkárová, Vladimíra
Prague: Institute of Information Theory and Automation, 2011, s. 67-72. ISBN 978-80-903834-6-3. [The 2nd International Workshop od Decision Making with Multiple Imperfect Decision Makers. Held in Conjunction with the 25th Annual Conference on Neural Information Processing Systems (NIPS 2011). Sierra Nevada (ES), 16.12.2011-16.12.2011] R&D Projects: GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : efficient estimation * a linear or nonlinear model * distributed estimation * Bayesian decision making Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/dedecius-towards distributed bayesian estimation a short note on selected aspects.pdf
Artificial neural network analysis applied to simplifying bioeffect radiotherapy treatment planning
Full text: A bioeffect planning system has been developed by Wigg and Nicholls in the Departments of Clinical Radiobiology and Medical Physics, at the Royal Adelaide Hospital. The system has been developed to be an experimental tool by means of which bioeffect plans may be compared with conventional isodose plans in radiotherapy. Limitations of isodose planning, in many common clinical circumstances, have been apparent for sometime (Wigg and Wilson, Australasian Radiology, 1981, 25: 205-212). There are many reasons why bioeffect planning has been slow in developing. These include concerns about the clinical application of theoretical radiobiology models, the uncertainty of normal tissue and tumour parameter values, and the non-availability of suitable computer systems capable of performing bioeffect planning. These concerns are fully justified and isodose planning must remain, for the foreseeable future, the gold standard for clinical treatment. However, these concerns must be judged against the certainty that isodose planning, in which the only variable usually considered is the total dose, can be substantially misleading. Unfortunately, a typical Tumour Control Probability (TCP) equation for bioeffect planning is complex with 12 parameters. Consequently, the equation is difficult to implement in practice. Can the equation be simplified by ignoring the variability of some of the parameters? To test this possibility, we have attempted a neural network analysis of the problem. The capability of artificial neural network (ANN) analysis to solve classification problems was explored in which a weight space analysis was conducted. It led to the reduction of the number of parameters. The training data for the ANN analysis was generated using the above equation and practical data from many publications. The performance of the optimized ANN and the reduced-parameter ANN were tested using other treatment data. The optimized ANN results closely matched with those of the
Braz Calderano Filho
2014-12-01
Full Text Available Soil information is needed for managing the agricultural environment. The aim of this study was to apply artificial neural networks (ANNs for the prediction of soil classes using orbital remote sensing products, terrain attributes derived from a digital elevation model and local geology information as data sources. This approach to digital soil mapping was evaluated in an area with a high degree of lithologic diversity in the Serra do Mar. The neural network simulator used in this study was JavaNNS and the backpropagation learning algorithm. For soil class prediction, different combinations of the selected discriminant variables were tested: elevation, declivity, aspect, curvature, curvature plan, curvature profile, topographic index, solar radiation, LS topographic factor, local geology information, and clay mineral indices, iron oxides and the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI derived from an image of a Landsat-7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper Plus (ETM+ sensor. With the tested sets, best results were obtained when all discriminant variables were associated with geological information (overall accuracy 93.2 - 95.6 %, Kappa index 0.924 - 0.951, for set 13. Excluding the variable profile curvature (set 12, overall accuracy ranged from 93.9 to 95.4 % and the Kappa index from 0.932 to 0.948. The maps based on the neural network classifier were consistent and similar to conventional soil maps drawn for the study area, although with more spatial details. The results show the potential of ANNs for soil class prediction in mountainous areas with lithological diversity.
Artificial neural networks applied to DNBR calculation in digital core protection systems
The nuclear power plant has to be operated with sufficient margin from the specified DNBR limit for assuring its safety. The digital core protection system calculates on-line real-time DNBR by using a complex subchannel analysis program, and triggers a reliable reactor shutdown if the calculated DNBR approaches the specified limit. However, it takes relatively long calculation time even for a steady state condition, which may have an adverse effect on the operation flexibility. To overcome the drawback, a method using artificial neural networks is studied in this paper. Nonparametric training approach is utilized, which shows dramatic reduction of the training time, no tedious heuristic process for optimizing parameters, and no local minima problem during the training. The test results show that the predicted DNBR is within about ±2% deviation from the target DNBR for the fixed axial flux shape case. For the variable axial flux case including severely skewed shapes appeared during accidents, the deviation is about ±10∼15%. The suggested method could be the alternative that can calculate DNBR very quickly while increasing the plant availability
Connectivity strategies for higher-order neural networks applied to pattern recognition
Spirkovska, Lilly; Reid, Max B.
1990-01-01
Different strategies for non-fully connected HONNs (higher-order neural networks) are discussed, showing that by using such strategies an input field of 128 x 128 pixels can be attained while still achieving in-plane rotation and translation-invariant recognition. These techniques allow HONNs to be used with the larger input scenes required for practical pattern-recognition applications. The number of interconnections that must be stored has been reduced by a factor of approximately 200,000 in a T/C case and about 2000 in a Space Shuttle/F-18 case by using regional connectivity. Third-order networks have been simulated using several connection strategies. The method found to work best is regional connectivity. The main advantages of this strategy are the following: (1) it considers features of various scales within the image and thus gets a better sample of what the image looks like; (2) it is invariant to shape-preserving geometric transformations, such as translation and rotation; (3) the connections are predetermined so that no extra computations are necessary during run time; and (4) it does not require any extra storage for recording which connections were formed.
Higher-Order Neural Networks Applied to 2D and 3D Object Recognition
Spirkovska, Lilly; Reid, Max B.
1994-01-01
A Higher-Order Neural Network (HONN) can be designed to be invariant to geometric transformations such as scale, translation, and in-plane rotation. Invariances are built directly into the architecture of a HONN and do not need to be learned. Thus, for 2D object recognition, the network needs to be trained on just one view of each object class, not numerous scaled, translated, and rotated views. Because the 2D object recognition task is a component of the 3D object recognition task, built-in 2D invariance also decreases the size of the training set required for 3D object recognition. We present results for 2D object recognition both in simulation and within a robotic vision experiment and for 3D object recognition in simulation. We also compare our method to other approaches and show that HONNs have distinct advantages for position, scale, and rotation-invariant object recognition. The major drawback of HONNs is that the size of the input field is limited due to the memory required for the large number of interconnections in a fully connected network. We present partial connectivity strategies and a coarse-coding technique for overcoming this limitation and increasing the input field to that required by practical object recognition problems.
Artificial neural networks applied to the prediction of spot prices in the market of electric energy
The commercialization of electricity in Brazil as well as in the world has undergone several changes over the past 20 years. In order to achieve an economic balance between supply and demand of the good called electricity, stakeholders in this market follow both rules set by society (government, companies and consumers) and set by the laws of nature (hydrology). To deal with such complex issues, various studies have been conducted in the area of computational heuristics. This work aims to develop a software to forecast spot market prices in using artificial neural networks (ANN). ANNs are widely used in various applications especially in computational heuristics, where non-linear systems have computational challenges difficult to overcome because of the effect named 'curse of dimensionality'. This effect is due to the fact that the current computational power is not enough to handle problems with such a high combination of variables. The challenge of forecasting prices depends on factors such as: (a) foresee the demand evolution (electric load); (b) the forecast of supply (reservoirs, hydrology and climate), capacity factor; and (c) the balance of the economy (pricing, auctions, foreign markets influence, economic policy, government budget and government policy). These factors are considered be used in the forecasting model for spot market prices and the results of its effectiveness are tested and huge presented. (author)
Classification by a neural network approach applied to non destructive testing
Radiography is used by EDF for pipe inspection in nuclear power plants in order to detect defects. The radiographs obtained are then digitized in a well-defined protocol. The aim of EDF consists of developing a non destructive testing system for recognizing defects. In this paper, we describe the recognition procedure of areas with defects. We first present the digitization protocol, specifies the poor quality of images under study and propose a procedure to enhance defects. We then examine the problem raised by the choice of good features for classification. After having proved that statistical or standard textural features such as homogeneity, entropy or contrast are not relevant, we develop a geometrical-statistical approach based on the cooperation between signal correlations study and regional extrema analysis. The principle consists of analysing and comparing for areas with defects and without any defect, the evolution of conditional probabilities matrices for increasing neighborhood sizes, the shape of variograms and the location of regional minima. We demonstrate that anisotropy and surface of series of 'comet tails' associated with probability matrices, variograms slope and statistical indices, regional extrema location, are features able to discriminate areas with defects from areas without any. The classification is then realized by a neural network, which structure, properties and learning mechanisms are detailed. Finally we discuss the results. (authors). 21 refs., 5 figs
李丽华; 丁香乾; 贺英; 王伟
2012-01-01
The appraisal of aroma types of tobacco usually depends on olfaction, the veracity of its result is sometimes hard to be guaranteed. In view of this, sensory evaluation models have been constructed at home and abroad by using BP neural network or other methods, but they are inefficient in recognition. According to the relationship between chemical composition and the aroma types of tobacco, the recognition model of tobacco aroma types has been constructed by using Tabu search-based Bayesian network. Experimental results showed that it can attain a better Bayesian network structure, and has higher training efficiency and better accuracy in classification compared with BP neural network or other methods.%烟叶香型通常是靠人的嗅觉评定的,评定结果的准确性往往难以保证.针对该问题,国内外建立了BP神经网络等感官评估模型,但识别效率不高.根据烟叶中化学成分与烟叶香型关系,使用基于Tabu搜索的贝叶斯网络建立烟叶香型识别模型.实验结果表明,使用该方法能得到较好的贝叶斯网络结构,与BP神经网络等方法相比训练效率更高,分类的结果也更加准确.
Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks
Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner
2003-01-01
Object oriented Bayesian networks have proven themselves useful in recent years. The idea of applying an object oriented approach to Bayesian networks has extended their scope to larger domains that can be divided into autonomous but interrelated entities. Object oriented Bayesian networks have...... been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... by constructing a junction tree from this network. In this paper we propose a method for translating directly from object oriented Bayesian networks to junction trees, avoiding the intermediate translation. We pursue two main purposes: firstly, to maintain the original structure organized in an instance tree...
Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams
Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø
Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...
Loredo, Thomas J.
2004-04-01
I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation-Inference-Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data-measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object-show the approach can significantly improve observational efficiency in settings that have well-defined nonlinear models. I conclude with a list of open issues that must be addressed to make Bayesian adaptive exploration a practical and reliable tool for optimizing scientific exploration.
Approximate Bayesian recursive estimation
Kárný, Miroslav
2014-01-01
Roč. 285, č. 1 (2014), s. 100-111. ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Approximate parameter estimation * Bayesian recursive estimation * Kullback–Leibler divergence * Forgetting Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.038, year: 2014 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2014/AS/karny-0425539.pdf
Bayesian Generalized Rating Curves
Helgi Sigurðarson 1985
2014-01-01
A rating curve is a curve or a model that describes the relationship between water elevation, or stage, and discharge in an observation site in a river. The rating curve is fit from paired observations of stage and discharge. The rating curve then predicts discharge given observations of stage and this methodology is applied as stage is substantially easier to directly observe than discharge. In this thesis a statistical rating curve model is proposed working within the framework of Bayesian...
Kirstein, Roland
2005-01-01
This paper presents a modification of the inspection game: The ?Bayesian Monitoring? model rests on the assumption that judges are interested in enforcing compliant behavior and making correct decisions. They may base their judgements on an informative but imperfect signal which can be generated costlessly. In the original inspection game, monitoring is costly and generates a perfectly informative signal. While the inspection game has only one mixed strategy equilibrium, three Perfect Bayesia...
Tissue heterogeneity as a mechanism for localized neural stimulation by applied electric fields
We investigate the heterogeneity of electrical conductivity as a new mechanism to stimulate excitable tissues via applied electric fields. In particular, we show that stimulation of axons crossing internal boundaries can occur at boundaries where the electric conductivity of the volume conductor changes abruptly. The effectiveness of this and other stimulation mechanisms was compared by means of models and computer simulations in the context of transcranial magnetic stimulation. While, for a given stimulation intensity, the largest membrane depolarization occurred where an axon terminates or bends sharply in a high electric field region, a slightly smaller membrane depolarization, still sufficient to generate action potentials, also occurred at an internal boundary where the conductivity jumped from 0.143 S m-1 to 0.333 S m-1, simulating a white-matter-grey-matter interface. Tissue heterogeneity can also give rise to local electric field gradients that are considerably stronger and more focal than those impressed by the stimulation coil and that can affect the membrane potential, albeit to a lesser extent than the two mechanisms mentioned above. Tissue heterogeneity may play an important role in electric and magnetic 'far-field' stimulation
Lobato, Justo; Canizares, Pablo; Rodrigo, Manuel A.; Linares, Jose J. [Chemical Engineering Department, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Campus Universitario s/n, 13004 Ciudad Real (Spain); Piuleac, Ciprian-George; Curteanu, Silvia [Faculty of Chemical Engineering and Environmental Protection, Department of Chemical Engineering, ' ' Gh. Asachi' ' Technical University Iasi Bd. D. Mangeron, No. 71A, 700050 IASI (Romania)
2010-08-15
This article shows the application of a very useful mathematical tool, artificial neural networks, to predict the fuel cells results (the value of the tortuosity and the cell voltage, at a given current density, and therefore, the power) on the basis of several properties that define a Gas Diffusion Layer: Teflon content, air permeability, porosity, mean pore size, hydrophobia level. Four neural networks types (multilayer perceptron, generalized feedforward network, modular neural network, and Jordan-Elman neural network) have been applied, with a good fitting between the predicted and the experimental values in the polarization curves. A simple feedforward neural network with one hidden layer proved to be an accurate model with good generalization capability (error about 1% in the validation phase). A procedure based on inverse neural network modelling was able to determine, with small errors, the initial conditions leading to imposed values for characteristics of the fuel cell. In addition, the use of this tool has been proved to be very attractive in order to predict the cell performance, and more interestingly, the influence of the properties of the gas diffusion layer on the cell performance, allowing possible enhancements of this material by changing some of its properties. (author)
Held, Ulrike; Brunner, Florian; Steurer, Johann; Wertli, Maria M
2015-11-01
There is conflicting evidence about the accuracy of bone scintigraphy (BS) for the diagnosis of complex regional pain syndrome 1 (CRPS 1). In a meta-analysis of diagnostic studies, the evaluation of test accuracy is impeded by the use of different imperfect reference tests. The aim of our study is to summarize sensitivity and specificity of BS for CRPS 1 and to identify factors to explain heterogeneity. We use a hierarchical Bayesian approach to model test accuracy and threshold, and we present different models accounting for the imperfect nature of the reference tests, and assuming conditional dependence between BS and the reference test results. Further, we include disease duration as explanatory variable in the model. The models are compared using summary ROC curves and the deviance information criterion (DIC). Our results show that those models which account for different imperfect reference tests with conditional dependence and inclusion of the covariate are the ones with the smallest DIC. The sensitivity of BS was 0.87 (95% credible interval 0.73-0.97) and the overall specificity was 0.87 (0.73-0.95) in the model with the smallest DIC, in which missing values of the covariate are imputed within the Bayesian framework. The estimated effect of duration of symptoms on the threshold parameter was 0.17 (-0.25 to 0.57). We demonstrate that the Bayesian models presented in this paper are useful to address typical problems occurring in meta-analysis of diagnostic studies, including conditional dependence between index test and reference test, as well as missing values in the study-specific covariates. PMID:26479506
Bessiere, Pierre; Ahuactzin, Juan Manuel; Mekhnacha, Kamel
2013-01-01
Probability as an Alternative to Boolean LogicWhile logic is the mathematical foundation of rational reasoning and the fundamental principle of computing, it is restricted to problems where information is both complete and certain. However, many real-world problems, from financial investments to email filtering, are incomplete or uncertain in nature. Probability theory and Bayesian computing together provide an alternative framework to deal with incomplete and uncertain data. Decision-Making Tools and Methods for Incomplete and Uncertain DataEmphasizing probability as an alternative to Boolean
At the beginning of the decade of the nineties, the industrial interest for TRIP steels leads to a significant increase of the investigation and application in this field. In this work, the flexibility of neural networks for the modelling of complex properties is used to tackle the problem of determining the retained austenite content in TRIP-steel. Applying a combination of two learning algorithms (backpropagation and creeping-random-search) for the neural network, a model has been created that enables the prediction of retained austenite in low-Si / low-Al multiphase steels as a function of processing parameters. (Author). 34 refs.
12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics
Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo
2015-01-01
Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...
Bayesian Statistics for Biological Data: Pedigree Analysis
Stanfield, William D.; Carlton, Matthew A.
2004-01-01
The use of Bayes' formula is applied to the biological problem of pedigree analysis to show that the Bayes' formula and non-Bayesian or "classical" methods of probability calculation give different answers. First year college students of biology can be introduced to the Bayesian statistics.
BAMBI: blind accelerated multimodal Bayesian inference
Graff, Philip; Hobson, Michael P; Lasenby, Anthony
2011-01-01
In this paper we present an algorithm for rapid Bayesian analysis that combines the benefits of nested sampling and artificial neural networks. The blind accelerated multimodal Bayesian inference (BAMBI) algorithm implements the MultiNest package for nested sampling as well as the training of an artificial neural network (NN) to learn the likelihood function. In the case of computationally expensive likelihoods, this allows the substitution of a much more rapid approximation in order to increase significantly the speed of the analysis. We begin by demonstrating, with a few toy examples, the ability of a NN to learn complicated likelihood surfaces. BAMBI's ability to decrease running time for Bayesian inference is then demonstrated in the context of estimating cosmological parameters from WMAP and other observations. We show that valuable speed increases are achieved in addition to obtaining NNs trained on the likelihood functions for the different model and data combinations. These NNs can then be used for an...
Bayesian theory and applications
Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A
2013-01-01
The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...
A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research
Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G
2014-01-01
Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First, t
A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation
Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri
2013-01-01
representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...
朴素贝叶斯应用于自动化测试用例生成%Naive Bayesian Applied in Automatic Test Cases Generation
李欣; 张聪; 罗宪
2012-01-01
提出一种使用朴素贝叶斯作为核心算法来产生自动化测试用例的方法。该方法以实现自动化测试为目标,引入了朴素贝叶斯对产生的随机测试用例分类的思想。实验结果表明,这是一种可行的生成测试用例的方法。%Test cases generation was the key of automatic testing. Test cases generated great significance in software testing process. Automatic testing cases generated by as the core algorithm were presented in this paper. And the thoughts of classificatio in test case generation. The results showed the method presented in this paper was to generate test cases. effectively had Bayesian methods n were introduced a feasible method
Bernhard, Jonah E.; Moreland, J. Scott; Bass, Steffen A.; Liu, Jia; Heinz, Ulrich
2016-08-01
We quantitatively estimate properties of the quark-gluon plasma created in ultrarelativistic heavy-ion collisions utilizing Bayesian statistics and a multiparameter model-to-data comparison. The study is performed using a recently developed parametric initial condition model, TRENTo, which interpolates among a general class of particle production schemes, and a modern hybrid model which couples viscous hydrodynamics to a hadronic cascade. We calibrate the model to multiplicity, transverse momentum, and flow data and report constraints on the parametrized initial conditions and the temperature-dependent transport coefficients of the quark-gluon plasma. We show that initial entropy deposition is consistent with a saturation-based picture, extract a relation between the minimum value and slope of the temperature-dependent specific shear viscosity, and find a clear signal for a nonzero bulk viscosity.
Bernhard, Jonah E; Bass, Steffen A; Liu, Jia; Heinz, Ulrich
2016-01-01
We quantitatively estimate properties of the quark-gluon plasma created in ultra-relativistic heavy-ion collisions utilizing Bayesian statistics and a multi-parameter model-to-data comparison. The study is performed using a recently developed parametric initial condition model, TRENTO, which interpolates among a general class of particle production schemes, and a modern hybrid model which couples viscous hydrodynamics to a hadronic cascade. We calibrate the model to multiplicity, transverse momentum, and flow data and report constraints on the parametrized initial conditions and the temperature-dependent transport coefficients of the quark-gluon plasma. We show that initial entropy deposition is consistent with a saturation-based picture, extract a relation between the minimum value and slope of the temperature-dependent specific shear viscosity, and find a clear signal for a nonzero bulk viscosity.
Babona-Pilipos, Robart; Popovic, Milos R.; Morshead, Cindi M.
2012-01-01
The discovery of neural stem and progenitor cells (collectively termed neural precursor cells) (NPCs) in the adult mammalian brain has led to a body of research aimed at utilizing the multipotent and proliferative properties of these cells for the development of neuroregenerative strategies. A critical step for the success of such strategies is the mobilization of NPCs toward a lesion site following exogenous transplantation or to enhance the response of the endogenous precursors that are fou...
Tahat, Amani; Martí Rabassa, Jordi; Khwaldeh, Ali; Tahat, Kaher
2014-01-01
In computational physics proton transfer phenomena could be viewed as pattern classification problems based on a set of input features allowing to classify the proton motion into two categories: transfer‘occurred’and transfer‘not occurred’. The goal of this paper is to evaluate the use of artificial neural networks in the classification of proton transfer events, based on the feed-forward back propagation neural network, used as a classifier to distinguish between the two transfer cases. In t...
Decentralized Distributed Bayesian Estimation
Dedecius, Kamil; Sečkárová, Vladimíra
Praha: ÚTIA AVČR, v.v.i, 2011 - (Janžura, M.; Ivánek, J.). s. 16-16 [7th International Workshop on Data–Algorithms–Decision Making. 27.11.2011-29.11.2011, Mariánská] R&D Projects: GA ČR 102/08/0567; GA ČR GA102/08/0567 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : estimation * distributed estimation * model Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/dedecius-decentralized distributed bayesian estimation.pdf
Łukasz Lechowicz; Wioletta Adamus-Białek; Wiesław Kaca
2013-01-01
Fimbriae are an important pathogenic factor of Escherichia coli during development of urinary tract infections. Here, we describe a new method for identification of Escherichia coli papG+ from papG- strains using the attenuated total reflectance Fourier transform infrared Spectroscopy (ATR FT-IR). We applied artificial neural networks to the analysis of the ATR FT-IR results. These methods allowed to discriminate E. coli papG+ from papG- strains with accuracy of 99%.
Bayesian Analysis of Experimental Data
Lalmohan Bhar
2013-10-01
Full Text Available Analysis of experimental data from Bayesian point of view has been considered. Appropriate methodology has been developed for application into designed experiments. Normal-Gamma distribution has been considered for prior distribution. Developed methodology has been applied to real experimental data taken from long term fertilizer experiments.
Fuzzy Naive Bayesian for constructing regulated network with weights.
Zhou, Xi Y; Tian, Xue W; Lim, Joon S
2015-01-01
In the data mining field, classification is a very crucial technology, and the Bayesian classifier has been one of the hotspots in classification research area. However, assumptions of Naive Bayesian and Tree Augmented Naive Bayesian (TAN) are unfair to attribute relations. Therefore, this paper proposes a new algorithm named Fuzzy Naive Bayesian (FNB) using neural network with weighted membership function (NEWFM) to extract regulated relations and weights. Then, we can use regulated relations and weights to construct a regulated network. Finally, we will classify the heart and Haberman datasets by the FNB network to compare with experiments of Naive Bayesian and TAN. The experiment results show that the FNB has a higher classification rate than Naive Bayesian and TAN. PMID:26405944
Control of Complex Systems Using Bayesian Networks and Genetic Algorithm
Marwala, Tshilidzi
2007-01-01
A method based on Bayesian neural networks and genetic algorithm is proposed to control the fermentation process. The relationship between input and output variables is modelled using Bayesian neural network that is trained using hybrid Monte Carlo method. A feedback loop based on genetic algorithm is used to change input variables so that the output variables are as close to the desired target as possible without the loss of confidence level on the prediction that the neural network gives. The proposed procedure is found to reduce the distance between the desired target and measured outputs significantly.
Tactile length contraction as Bayesian inference.
Tong, Jonathan; Ngo, Vy; Goldreich, Daniel
2016-08-01
To perceive, the brain must interpret stimulus-evoked neural activity. This is challenging: The stochastic nature of the neural response renders its interpretation inherently uncertain. Perception would be optimized if the brain used Bayesian inference to interpret inputs in light of expectations derived from experience. Bayesian inference would improve perception on average but cause illusions when stimuli violate expectation. Intriguingly, tactile, auditory, and visual perception are all prone to length contraction illusions, characterized by the dramatic underestimation of the distance between punctate stimuli delivered in rapid succession; the origin of these illusions has been mysterious. We previously proposed that length contraction illusions occur because the brain interprets punctate stimulus sequences using Bayesian inference with a low-velocity expectation. A novel prediction of our Bayesian observer model is that length contraction should intensify if stimuli are made more difficult to localize. Here we report a tactile psychophysical study that tested this prediction. Twenty humans compared two distances on the forearm: a fixed reference distance defined by two taps with 1-s temporal separation and an adjustable comparison distance defined by two taps with temporal separation t ≤ 1 s. We observed significant length contraction: As t was decreased, participants perceived the two distances as equal only when the comparison distance was made progressively greater than the reference distance. Furthermore, the use of weaker taps significantly enhanced participants' length contraction. These findings confirm the model's predictions, supporting the view that the spatiotemporal percept is a best estimate resulting from a Bayesian inference process. PMID:27121574
Kernel density compression for real-time Bayesian encoding/decoding of unsorted hippocampal spikes
Sodkomkham, Danaipat; Ciliberti, Davide; Wilson, Matthew A.; Fukui, Ken-ichi; Moriyama, Koichi; Numao, Masayuki; Kloosterman, Fabian
2015-01-01
To gain a better understanding of how neural ensembles communicate and process information, neural decoding algorithms are used to extract information encoded in their spiking activity. Bayesian decoding is one of the most used neural population decoding approaches to extract information from the ensemble spiking activity of rat hippocampal neurons. Recently it has been shown how Bayesian decoding can be implemented without the intermediate step of sorting spike waveforms into groups of singl...
Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre
2016-01-01
Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes and...... largely due to the availability of efficient inference algorithms for answering probabilistic queries about the states of the variables in the network. Furthermore, to support the construction of Bayesian network models, learning algorithms are also available. We give an overview of the Bayesian network...
Fuzzy ARTMAP neural network for seafloor classification from multibeam sonar data
Zhou Xinghua; Chen Yongqi; Nick Emerson; Du Dewen
2006-01-01
This paper presents a seafloor classification method of multibeam sonar data, based on the use of Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) neural networks. A general ART-based neural network, Fuzzy ARTMAP, has been proposed for seafloor classification of multibeam sonar data. An evolutionary strategy was used to generate new training samples near the cluster boundaries of the neural network, therefore the weights can be revised and refined by supervised learning. The proposed method resolves the training problem for Fuzzy ARTMAP neural networks, which are applied to seafloor classification of multibeam sonar data when there are less than adequate ground-truth samples. The results were synthetically analyzed in comparison with the standard Fuzzy ARTMAP network and a conventional Bayesian classifier.The conclusion can be drawn that Fuzzy ARTMAP neural networks combining with GA algorithms can be alternative powerful tools for seafloor classification of multibeam sonar data.
Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.
Liangdong Hu
Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.
Modeling operational risks of the nuclear industry with Bayesian networks
Basically, planning a new industrial plant requires information on the industrial management, regulations, site selection, definition of initial and planned capacity, and on the estimation of the potential demand. However, this is far from enough to assure the success of an industrial enterprise. Unexpected and extremely damaging events may occur that deviates from the original plan. The so-called operational risks are not only in the system, equipment, process or human (technical or managerial) failures. They are also in intentional events such as frauds and sabotage, or extreme events like terrorist attacks or radiological accidents and even on public reaction to perceived environmental or future generation impacts. For the nuclear industry, it is a challenge to identify and to assess the operational risks and their various sources. Early identification of operational risks can help in preparing contingency plans, to delay the decision to invest or to approve a project that can, at an extreme, affect the public perception of the nuclear energy. A major problem in modeling operational risk losses is the lack of internal data that are essential, for example, to apply the loss distribution approach. As an alternative, methods that consider qualitative and subjective information can be applied, for example, fuzzy logic, neural networks, system dynamic or Bayesian networks. An advantage of applying Bayesian networks to model operational risk is the possibility to include expert opinions and variables of interest, to structure the model via causal dependencies among these variables, and to specify subjective prior and conditional probabilities distributions at each step or network node. This paper suggests a classification of operational risks in industry and discusses the benefits and obstacles of the Bayesian networks approach to model those risks. (author)
A Bayesian Nonparametric IRT Model
Karabatsos, George
2015-01-01
This paper introduces a flexible Bayesian nonparametric Item Response Theory (IRT) model, which applies to dichotomous or polytomous item responses, and which can apply to either unidimensional or multidimensional scaling. This is an infinite-mixture IRT model, with person ability and item difficulty parameters, and with a random intercept parameter that is assigned a mixing distribution, with mixing weights a probit function of other person and item parameters. As a result of its flexibility...
Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael
2003-01-01
A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which...... represents the spatial coordinates of the grid nodes. Knowledge of how grid nodes are depicted in the observed image is described through the observation model. The prior consists of a node prior and an arc (edge) prior, both modeled as Gaussian MRFs. The node prior models variations in the positions of grid...... nodes and the arc prior models variations in row and column spacing across the grid. Grid matching is done by placing an initial rough grid over the image and applying an ensemble annealing scheme to maximize the posterior distribution of the grid. The method can be applied to noisy images with missing...
Gelman, Andrew; Stern, Hal S; Dunson, David B; Vehtari, Aki; Rubin, Donald B
2013-01-01
FUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN INFERENCEProbability and InferenceSingle-Parameter Models Introduction to Multiparameter Models Asymptotics and Connections to Non-Bayesian ApproachesHierarchical ModelsFUNDAMENTALS OF BAYESIAN DATA ANALYSISModel Checking Evaluating, Comparing, and Expanding ModelsModeling Accounting for Data Collection Decision AnalysisADVANCED COMPUTATION Introduction to Bayesian Computation Basics of Markov Chain Simulation Computationally Efficient Markov Chain Simulation Modal and Distributional ApproximationsREGRESSION MODELS Introduction to Regression Models Hierarchical Linear
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2009-01-01
This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...
Bayesian Games with Intentions
Bjorndahl, Adam; Halpern, Joseph Y.; Pass, Rafael
2016-01-01
We show that standard Bayesian games cannot represent the full spectrum of belief-dependent preferences. However, by introducing a fundamental distinction between intended and actual strategies, we remove this limitation. We define Bayesian games with intentions, generalizing both Bayesian games and psychological games, and prove that Nash equilibria in psychological games correspond to a special class of equilibria as defined in our setting.
Darwish, Hany W.; Hassan, Said A.; Salem, Maissa Y.; El-Zeany, Badr A.
2014-03-01
Different chemometric models were applied for the quantitative analysis of Amlodipine (AML), Valsartan (VAL) and Hydrochlorothiazide (HCT) in ternary mixture, namely, Partial Least Squares (PLS) as traditional chemometric model and Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) as advanced model. PLS and ANN were applied with and without variable selection procedure (Genetic Algorithm GA) and data compression procedure (Principal Component Analysis PCA). The chemometric methods applied are PLS-1, GA-PLS, ANN, GA-ANN and PCA-ANN. The methods were used for the quantitative analysis of the drugs in raw materials and pharmaceutical dosage form via handling the UV spectral data. A 3-factor 5-level experimental design was established resulting in 25 mixtures containing different ratios of the drugs. Fifteen mixtures were used as a calibration set and the other ten mixtures were used as validation set to validate the prediction ability of the suggested methods. The validity of the proposed methods was assessed using the standard addition technique.
Bayesian Soft Sensing in Cold Sheet Rolling
Dedecius, Kamil; Jirsa, Ladislav
Praha: ÚTIA AV ČR, v.v.i, 2010. s. 45-45. [6th International Workshop on Data–Algorithms–Decision Making. 2.12.2010-4.12.2010, Jindřichův Hradec] R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 7D09008 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : soft sensor * bayesian statistics * bayesian model averaging Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2010/AS/dedecius-bayesian soft sensing in cold sheet rolling.pdf
Musenge, Eustasius; Chirwa, Tobias Freeman; Kahn, Kathleen; Vounatsou, Penelope
2013-06-01
Longitudinal mortality data with few deaths usually have problems of zero-inflation. This paper presents and applies two Bayesian models which cater for zero-inflation, spatial and temporal random effects. To reduce the computational burden experienced when a large number of geo-locations are treated as a Gaussian field (GF) we transformed the field to a Gaussian Markov Random Fields (GMRF) by triangulation. We then modelled the spatial random effects using the Stochastic Partial Differential Equations (SPDEs). Inference was done using a computationally efficient alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) called Integrated Nested Laplace Approximation (INLA) suited for GMRF. The models were applied to data from 71,057 children aged 0 to under 10 years from rural north-east South Africa living in 15,703 households over the years 1992-2010. We found protective effects on HIV/TB mortality due to greater birth weight, older age and more antenatal clinic visits during pregnancy (adjusted RR (95% CI)): 0.73(0.53;0.99), 0.18(0.14;0.22) and 0.96(0.94;0.97) respectively. Therefore childhood HIV/TB mortality could be reduced if mothers are better catered for during pregnancy as this can reduce mother-to-child transmissions and contribute to improved birth weights. The INLA and SPDE approaches are computationally good alternatives in modelling large multilevel spatiotemporal GMRF data structures.
Flexible Bayesian Nonparametric Priors and Bayesian Computational Methods
Zhu, Weixuan
2016-01-01
The definition of vectors of dependent random probability measures is a topic of interest in Bayesian nonparametrics. They represent dependent nonparametric prior distributions that are useful for modelling observables for which specific covariate values are known. Our first contribution is the introduction of novel multivariate vectors of two-parameter Poisson-Dirichlet process. The dependence is induced by applying a L´evy copula to the marginal L´evy intensities. Our attenti...
Bayesian Analysis of Multivariate Probit Models
Siddhartha Chib; Edward Greenberg
1996-01-01
This paper provides a unified simulation-based Bayesian and non-Bayesian analysis of correlated binary data using the multivariate probit model. The posterior distribution is simulated by Markov chain Monte Carlo methods, and maximum likelihood estimates are obtained by a Markov chain Monte Carlo version of the E-M algorithm. Computation of Bayes factors from the simulation output is also considered. The methods are applied to a bivariate data set, to a 534-subject, four-year longitudinal dat...
Bayesian Classification in Medicine: The Transferability Question *
Zagoria, Ronald J.; Reggia, James A.; Price, Thomas R.; Banko, Maryann
1981-01-01
Using probabilities derived from a geographically distant patient population, we applied Bayesian classification to categorize stroke patients by etiology. Performance was assessed both by error rate and with a new linear accuracy coefficient. This approach to patient classification was found to be surprisingly accurate when compared to classification by two neurologists and to classification by the Bayesian method using “low cost” local and subjective probabilities. We conclude that for some...
Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter
无
2005-01-01
For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.
ANALYSIS OF BAYESIAN CLASSIFIER ACCURACY
Felipe Schneider Costa
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The naÃ¯ve Bayes classifier is considered one of the most effective classification algorithms today, competing with more modern and sophisticated classifiers. Despite being based on unrealistic (naÃ¯ve assumption that all variables are independent, given the output class, the classifier provides proper results. However, depending on the scenario utilized (network structure, number of samples or training cases, number of variables, the network may not provide appropriate results. This study uses a process variable selection, using the chi-squared test to verify the existence of dependence between variables in the data model in order to identify the reasons which prevent a Bayesian network to provide good performance. A detailed analysis of the data is also proposed, unlike other existing work, as well as adjustments in case of limit values between two adjacent classes. Furthermore, variable weights are used in the calculation of a posteriori probabilities, calculated with mutual information function. Tests were applied in both a naÃ¯ve Bayesian network and a hierarchical Bayesian network. After testing, a significant reduction in error rate has been observed. The naÃ¯ve Bayesian network presented a drop in error rates from twenty five percent to five percent, considering the initial results of the classification process. In the hierarchical network, there was not only a drop in fifteen percent error rate, but also the final result came to zero.
Bayesian inference on proportional elections.
Brunello, Gabriel Hideki Vatanabe; Nakano, Eduardo Yoshio
2015-01-01
Polls for majoritarian voting systems usually show estimates of the percentage of votes for each candidate. However, proportional vote systems do not necessarily guarantee the candidate with the most percentage of votes will be elected. Thus, traditional methods used in majoritarian elections cannot be applied on proportional elections. In this context, the purpose of this paper was to perform a Bayesian inference on proportional elections considering the Brazilian system of seats distribution. More specifically, a methodology to answer the probability that a given party will have representation on the chamber of deputies was developed. Inferences were made on a Bayesian scenario using the Monte Carlo simulation technique, and the developed methodology was applied on data from the Brazilian elections for Members of the Legislative Assembly and Federal Chamber of Deputies in 2010. A performance rate was also presented to evaluate the efficiency of the methodology. Calculations and simulations were carried out using the free R statistical software. PMID:25786259
Elements of Bayesian experimental design
Sivia, D.S. [Rutherford Appleton Lab., Oxon (United Kingdom)
1997-09-01
We consider some elements of the Bayesian approach that are important for optimal experimental design. While the underlying principles used are very general, and are explained in detail in a recent tutorial text, they are applied here to the specific case of characterising the inferential value of different resolution peakshapes. This particular issue was considered earlier by Silver, Sivia and Pynn (1989, 1990a, 1990b), and the following presentation confirms and extends the conclusions of their analysis.
Topics in Nonparametric Bayesian Statistics
2003-01-01
The intersection set of Bayesian and nonparametric statistics was almost empty until about 1973, but now seems to be growing at a healthy rate. This chapter gives an overview of various theoretical and applied research themes inside this field, partly complementing and extending recent reviews of Dey, Müller and Sinha (1998) and Walker, Damien, Laud and Smith (1999). The intention is not to be complete or exhaustive, but rather to touch on research areas of interest, partly by example.
Bayesian Optimization for Adaptive MCMC
Mahendran, Nimalan; Wang, Ziyu; Hamze, Firas; De Freitas, Nando
2011-01-01
This paper proposes a new randomized strategy for adaptive MCMC using Bayesian optimization. This approach applies to non-differentiable objective functions and trades off exploration and exploitation to reduce the number of potentially costly objective function evaluations. We demonstrate the strategy in the complex setting of sampling from constrained, discrete and densely connected probabilistic graphical models where, for each variation of the problem, one needs to adjust the parameters o...
Unsupervised Bayesian decomposition of multiunit EMG recordings using Tabu search.
Ge, Di; Le Carpentier, Eric; Farina, Dario
2010-03-01
Intramuscular electromyography (EMG) signals are usually decomposed with semiautomatic procedures that involve the interaction with an expert operator. In this paper, a Bayesian statistical model and a maximum a posteriori (MAP) estimator are used to solve the problem of multiunit EMG decomposition in a fully automatic way. The MAP estimation exploits both the likelihood of the reconstructed EMG signal and some physiological constraints, such as the discharge pattern regularity and the refractory period of muscle fibers, as prior information integrated in a Bayesian framework. A Tabu search is proposed to efficiently tackle the nondeterministic polynomial-time-hard problem of optimization w.r.t the motor unit discharge patterns. The method is fully automatic and was tested on simulated and experimental EMG signals. Compared with the semiautomatic decomposition performed by an expert operator, the proposed method resulted in an accuracy of 90.0% +/- 3.8% when decomposing single-channel intramuscular EMG signals recorded from the abductor digiti minimi muscle at contraction forces of 5% and 10% of the maximal force. The method can also be applied to the automatic identification and classification of spikes from other neural recordings. PMID:19457743
Vitor Hugo Ferreira
2011-12-01
Full Text Available After 1991, the literature on load forecasting has been dominated by neural network based proposals. However, one major risk in using neural models is the possibility of excessive training, i.e., data overfitting. The extent of nonlinearity provided by neural network based load forecasters, which depends on the input space representation, has been adjusted using heuristic procedures. The empirical nature of these procedures makes their application cumbersome and time consuming. Autonomous modeling including automatic input selection and model complexity control has been proposed recently for short-term load forecasting. However, these techniques require the specification of an initial input set that will be processed by the model in order to select the most relevant variables. This paper explores chaos theory as a tool from non-linear time series analysis to automatic select the lags of the load series data that will be used by the neural models. In this paper, Bayesian inference applied to multi-layered perceptrons and relevance vector machines are used in the development of autonomous neural models.Após 1991, a literatura sobre previsão de carga passou a ser dominada por propostas baseadas em modelos neurais. Entretanto, um empecilho na aplicação destes modelos reside na possibilidade do ajuste excessivo dos dados, i.e, overfitting. O excesso de não-linearidade disponibilizado pelos modelos neurais de previsão de carga, que depende da representação do espaço de entrada, vem sendo ajustado de maneira heurística. Modelos autônomos incluindo técnicas automáticas e acopladas para seleção de entradas e controle de complexidade dos modelos foram propostos recentemente para previsão de carga em curto prazo. Entretanto, estas técnicas necessitam da especificação do conjunto inicial de entradas que será processado pelo modelo visando determinar aquelas mais relevantes. Este trabalho explora a teoria do caos como ferramenta de an
Bayesian statistics an introduction
Lee, Peter M
2012-01-01
Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel
Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics
Bolstad, William M
2011-01-01
A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic
The Bayesian Modelling Of Inflation Rate In Romania
Mihaela Simionescu
2014-01-01
Bayesian econometrics knew a considerable increase in popularity in the last years, joining the interests of various groups of researchers in economic sciences and additional ones as specialists in econometrics, commerce, industry, marketing, finance, micro-economy, macro-economy and other domains. The purpose of this research is to achieve an introduction in Bayesian approach applied in economics, starting with Bayes theorem. For the Bayesian linear regression models the methodology of estim...
Algorithms and Complexity Results for Exact Bayesian Structure Learning
Sebastian Ordyniak; Stefan Szeider
2012-01-01
Bayesian structure learning is the NP-hard problem of discovering a Bayesian network that optimally represents a given set of training data. In this paper we study the computational worst-case complexity of exact Bayesian structure learning under graph theoretic restrictions on the super-structure. The super-structure (a concept introduced by Perrier, Imoto, and Miyano, JMLR 2008) is an undirected graph that contains as subgraphs the skeletons of solution networks. Our results apply to severa...
Lefevre, M.; Preteux, F.; Lavayssiere, B.
1995-12-31
Radiography is used by EDF for pipe inspection in nuclear power plants in order to detect defects. The radiographs obtained are then digitized in a well-defined protocol. The aim of EDF consists of developing a non destructive testing system for recognizing defects. In this paper, we describe the recognition procedure of areas with defects. We first present the digitization protocol, specifies the poor quality of images under study and propose a procedure to enhance defects. We then examine the problem raised by the choice of good features for classification. After having proved that statistical or standard textural features such as homogeneity, entropy or contrast are not relevant, we develop a geometrical-statistical approach based on the cooperation between signal correlations study and regional extrema analysis. The principle consists of analysing and comparing for areas with defects and without any defect, the evolution of conditional probabilities matrices for increasing neighborhood sizes, the shape of variograms and the location of regional minima. We demonstrate that anisotropy and surface of series of `comet tails` associated with probability matrices, variograms slope and statistical indices, regional extrema location, are features able to discriminate areas with defects from areas without any. The classification is then realized by a neural network, which structure, properties and learning mechanisms are detailed. Finally we discuss the results. (authors). 21 refs., 5 figs.
Sahiner, Berkman; Chan, Heang-Ping; Hadjiiski, Lubomir
2008-01-01
In a practical classifier design problem the sample size is limited, and the available finite sample needs to be used both to design a classifier and to predict the classifier's performance for the true population. Since a larger sample is more representative of the population, it is advantageous to design the classifier with all the available cases, and to use a resampling technique for performance prediction. We conducted a Monte Carlo simulation study to compare the ability of different resampling techniques in predicting the performance of a neural network (NN) classifier designed with the available sample. We used the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve as the performance index for the NN classifier. We investigated resampling techniques based on the cross-validation, the leave-one-out method, and three different types of bootstrapping, namely, the ordinary, .632, and .632+ bootstrap. Our results indicated that, under the study conditions, there can be a large difference in the accuracy of the prediction obtained from different resampling methods, especially when the feature space dimensionality is relatively large and the sample size is small. Although this investigation is performed under some specific conditions, it reveals important trends for the problem of classifier performance prediction under the constraint of a limited data set. PMID:18234468
Bayesian calibration of car-following models
Van Hinsbergen, C.P.IJ.; Van Lint, H.W.C.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.; Van Zuylen, H.J.
2010-01-01
Recent research has revealed that there exist large inter-driver differences in car-following behavior such that different car-following models may apply to different drivers. This study applies Bayesian techniques to the calibration of car-following models, where prior distributions on each model p
Temporal Difference Learning for the Game Tic-Tac-Toe 3D: Applying Structure to Neural Networks
van de Steeg, Michiel; Drugan, Madalina; Wiering, Marco
2015-01-01
When reinforcement learning is applied to large state spaces, such as those occurring in playing board games, the use of a good function approximator to learn to approximate the value function is very important. In previous research, multilayer perceptrons have often been quite successfully used as
Raju Dara
2014-10-01
Full Text Available Many diversified applications do exist in science & technology, which make use of the primary theory of a recognition phenomenon as one of its solutions. Recognition scenario is incorporated with a set of decisions and the action according to the decision purely relies on the quality of extracted information on utmost applications. Thus, the quality decision making absolutely reckons on processing momentum and precision which are entirely coupled with recognition methodology. In this article, a latest rule is formulated based on the degree of correlation to characterize the generalized recognition constraint and the application is explored with respect to image based information extraction. Machine learning based perception called feed forward architecture of Artificial Neural Network has been applied to attain the expected eminence of elucidation. The proposed method furnishes extraordinary advantages such as less memory requirements, extremely high level security for storing data, exceptional speed and gentle implementation approach.
Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.
2009-01-01
In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…
Neural Networks and Photometric Redshifts
Tagliaferri, Roberto; Longo, Giuseppe; Andreon, Stefano; Capozziello, Salvatore; Donalek, Ciro; Giordano, Gerardo
2002-01-01
We present a neural network based approach to the determination of photometric redshift. The method was tested on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Early Data Release (SDSS-EDR) reaching an accuracy comparable and, in some cases, better than SED template fitting techniques. Different neural networks architecture have been tested and the combination of a Multi Layer Perceptron with 1 hidden layer (22 neurons) operated in a Bayesian framework, with a Self Organizing Map used to estimate the accuracy...
An introduction to Gaussian Bayesian networks.
Grzegorczyk, Marco
2010-01-01
The extraction of regulatory networks and pathways from postgenomic data is important for drug -discovery and development, as the extracted pathways reveal how genes or proteins regulate each other. Following up on the seminal paper of Friedman et al. (J Comput Biol 7:601-620, 2000), Bayesian networks have been widely applied as a popular tool to this end in systems biology research. Their popularity stems from the tractability of the marginal likelihood of the network structure, which is a consistent scoring scheme in the Bayesian context. This score is based on an integration over the entire parameter space, for which highly expensive computational procedures have to be applied when using more complex -models based on differential equations; for example, see (Bioinformatics 24:833-839, 2008). This chapter gives an introduction to reverse engineering regulatory networks and pathways with Gaussian Bayesian networks, that is Bayesian networks with the probabilistic BGe scoring metric [see (Geiger and Heckerman 235-243, 1995)]. In the BGe model, the data are assumed to stem from a Gaussian distribution and a normal-Wishart prior is assigned to the unknown parameters. Gaussian Bayesian network methodology for analysing static observational, static interventional as well as dynamic (observational) time series data will be described in detail in this chapter. Finally, we apply these Bayesian network inference methods (1) to observational and interventional flow cytometry (protein) data from the well-known RAF pathway to evaluate the global network reconstruction accuracy of Bayesian network inference and (2) to dynamic gene expression time series data of nine circadian genes in Arabidopsis thaliana to reverse engineer the unknown regulatory network topology for this domain. PMID:20824469
Saro Lee; Woo Jeon Seong; Kwan-Young Oh; Moung-Jin Lee
2016-01-01
The aim of this study is to predict landslide susceptibility caused using the spatial analysis by the application of a statistical methodology based on the GIS. Logistic regression models along with artificial neutral network were applied and validated to analyze landslide susceptibility in Inje, Korea. Landslide occurrence area in the study were identified based on interpretations of optical remote sensing data (Aerial photographs) followed by field surveys. A spatial database considering fo...
de Albuquerque, Victor Hugo C.; Auzuir Ripardo de Alexandria; Paulo César Cortez; João Manuel R. S. Tavares
2009-01-01
Artificial neuronal networks have been used intensively in many domains to accomplish different computational tasks. One of these tasks is the segmentation of objects in images, like to segment microstructures from metallographic images, and for that goal several network topologies were proposed. This paper presents a comparative analysis between multilayer perceptron and selforganizing map topologies applied to segment microstructures from metallographic images. The multilayer perceptron neu...
Élida Fernanda Xavier Júlio; Simplício Arnaud da Silva; Cícero da Rocha Souto
2015-01-01
In this study, a control strategy is presented to control the position and the feed rate of a table of a milling machine powered by three-phase induction motor, when machining pieces constituted by different types of materials: steel, brass and nylon. For development of the control strategy, the vector control technique was applied to drive the three-phase induction machines. The estimation of the electromagnetic torque of the motor was used to determine the machining feed rate fo...
Manger, R
1998-01-01
Holographic neural networks are a new and promising type of artificial neural networks. This article gives an overview of the holographic neural technology and its possibilities. The theoretical principles of holographic networks are first reviewed. Then, some other papers are presented, where holographic networks have been applied or experimentally evaluated. A case study dealing with currency exchange rate prediction is described in more detail.
Bayesian Design Space applied to Pharmaceutical Development
Lebrun, Pierre
2012-01-01
Given the guidelines such as the Q8 document published by the International Conference on Harmonization (ICH), that describe the “Quality by Design” paradigm for the Pharmaceutical Development, the aim of this work is to provide a complete methodology addressing this problematic. As a result, various Design Spaces were obtained for different analytical methods and a manufacturing process. In Q8, Design Space has been defined as the “the multidimensional combination and interaction of input...
Bayesian item selection in constrained adaptive testing using shadow tests
Veldkamp, Bernard P.
2010-01-01
Application of Bayesian item selection criteria in computerized adaptive testing might result in improvement of bias and MSE of the ability estimates. The question remains how to apply Bayesian item selection criteria in the context of constrained adaptive testing, where large numbers of specificati
Bayesian Item Selection in Constrained Adaptive Testing Using Shadow Tests
Veldkamp, Bernard P.
2010-01-01
Application of Bayesian item selection criteria in computerized adaptive testing might result in improvement of bias and MSE of the ability estimates. The question remains how to apply Bayesian item selection criteria in the context of constrained adaptive testing, where large numbers of specifications have to be taken into account in the item…
Bayesian regularisation methods in a hybrid MLP-HMM system.
Renals, Steve; MacKay, David
1993-01-01
We have applied Bayesian regularisation methods to multi-layer percepuon (MLP) training in the context of a hybrid MLP-HMM (hidden Markov model) continuous speech recognition system. The Bayesian framework adopted here allows an objective setting of the regularisation parameters, according to the training data. Experiments have been carried out on the ARPA Resource Management database.
Bayesian Modelling of fMRI Time Series
Højen-Sørensen, Pedro; Hansen, Lars Kai; Rasmussen, Carl Edward
2000-01-01
We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial fMRI activation experiments with blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte...
Bayesian Modelling of fMRI Time Series
Højen-Sørensen, Pedro; Hansen, Lars Kai; Rasmussen, Carl Edward
We present a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) for inferring the hidden psychological state (or neural activity) during single trial fMRI activation experiments with blocked task paradigms. Inference is based on Bayesian methodology, using a combination of analytical and a variety of Markov Chain Monte...
Phase Transitions of Neural Networks
Kinzel, Wolfgang
1997-01-01
The cooperative behaviour of interacting neurons and synapses is studied using models and methods from statistical physics. The competition between training error and entropy may lead to discontinuous properties of the neural network. This is demonstrated for a few examples: Perceptron, associative memory, learning from examples, generalization, multilayer networks, structure recognition, Bayesian estimate, on-line training, noise estimation and time series generation.
SOMBI: Bayesian identification of parameter relations in unstructured cosmological data
Frank, Philipp; Enßlin, Torsten A
2016-01-01
This work describes the implementation and application of a correlation determination method based on Self Organizing Maps and Bayesian Inference (SOMBI). SOMBI aims to automatically identify relations between different observed parameters in unstructured cosmological or astrophysical surveys by automatically identifying data clusters in high-dimensional datasets via the Self Organizing Map neural network algorithm. Parameter relations are then revealed by means of a Bayesian inference within respective identified data clusters. Specifically such relations are assumed to be parametrized as a polynomial of unknown order. The Bayesian approach results in a posterior probability distribution function for respective polynomial coefficients. To decide which polynomial order suffices to describe correlation structures in data, we include a method for model selection, the Bayesian Information Criterion, to the analysis. The performance of the SOMBI algorithm is tested with mock data. As illustration we also provide ...
Zhang, Yimeng; Li, Xiong; Samonds, Jason M; Lee, Tai Sing
2016-03-01
Bayesian theory has provided a compelling conceptualization for perceptual inference in the brain. Central to Bayesian inference is the notion of statistical priors. To understand the neural mechanisms of Bayesian inference, we need to understand the neural representation of statistical regularities in the natural environment. In this paper, we investigated empirically how statistical regularities in natural 3D scenes are represented in the functional connectivity of disparity-tuned neurons in the primary visual cortex of primates. We applied a Boltzmann machine model to learn from 3D natural scenes, and found that the units in the model exhibited cooperative and competitive interactions, forming a "disparity association field", analogous to the contour association field. The cooperative and competitive interactions in the disparity association field are consistent with constraints of computational models for stereo matching. In addition, we simulated neurophysiological experiments on the model, and found the results to be consistent with neurophysiological data in terms of the functional connectivity measurements between disparity-tuned neurons in the macaque primary visual cortex. These findings demonstrate that there is a relationship between the functional connectivity observed in the visual cortex and the statistics of natural scenes. They also suggest that the Boltzmann machine can be a viable model for conceptualizing computations in the visual cortex and, as such, can be used to predict neural circuits in the visual cortex from natural scene statistics. PMID:26712581
Bayesian Image Reconstruction Based on Voronoi Diagrams
Cabrera, G F; Hitschfeld, N
2007-01-01
We present a Bayesian Voronoi image reconstruction technique (VIR) for interferometric data. Bayesian analysis applied to the inverse problem allows us to derive the a-posteriori probability of a novel parameterization of interferometric images. We use a variable Voronoi diagram as our model in place of the usual fixed pixel grid. A quantization of the intensity field allows us to calculate the likelihood function and a-priori probabilities. The Voronoi image is optimized including the number of polygons as free parameters. We apply our algorithm to deconvolve simulated interferometric data. Residuals, restored images and chi^2 values are used to compare our reconstructions with fixed grid models. VIR has the advantage of modeling the image with few parameters, obtaining a better image from a Bayesian point of view.