Sundanese ancient manuscripts search engine using probability approach

Science.gov (United States)

Suryani, Mira; Hadi, Setiawan; Paulus, Erick; Nurma Yulita, Intan; Supriatna, Asep K.

2017-10-01

Today, Information and Communication Technology (ICT) has become a regular thing for every aspect of live include cultural and heritage aspect. Sundanese ancient manuscripts as Sundanese heritage are in damage condition and also the information that containing on it. So in order to preserve the information in Sundanese ancient manuscripts and make them easier to search, a search engine has been developed. The search engine must has good computing ability. In order to get the best computation in developed search engine, three types of probabilistic approaches: Bayesian Networks Model, Divergence from Randomness with PL2 distribution, and DFR-PL2F as derivative form DFR-PL2 have been compared in this study. The three probabilistic approaches supported by index of documents and three different weighting methods: term occurrence, term frequency, and TF-IDF. The experiment involved 12 Sundanese ancient manuscripts. From 12 manuscripts there are 474 distinct terms. The developed search engine tested by 50 random queries for three types of query. The experiment results showed that for the single query and multiple query, the best searching performance given by the combination of PL2F approach and TF-IDF weighting method. The performance has been evaluated using average time responds with value about 0.08 second and Mean Average Precision (MAP) about 0.33.

Local versus landscape-scale effects of anthropogenic land-use on forest species richness

Science.gov (United States)

Buffa, G.; Del Vecchio, S.; Fantinato, E.; Milano, V.

2018-01-01

The study investigated the effects of human-induced landscape patterns on species richness in forests. For 80 plots of fixed size, we measured human disturbance (categorized as urban/industrial and agricultural land areas), at 'local' and 'landscape' scale (500 m and 2500 m radius from each plot, respectively), the distance from the forest edge, and the size and shape of the woody patch. By using GLM, we analyzed the effects of disturbance and patch-based measures on both total species richness and the richness of a group of specialist species (i.e. the 'ancient forest species'), representing more specific forest features. Patterns of local species richness were sensitive to the structure and composition of the surrounding landscape. Among the landscape components taken into account, urban/industrial land areas turned out as the most threatening factor for both total species richness and the richness of the ancient forest species. However, the best models evidenced a different intensity of the response to the same disturbance category as well as a different pool of significant variables for the two groups of species. The use of groups of species, such as the ancient forest species pool, that are functionally related and have similar ecological requirements, may represent an effective solution for monitoring forest dynamics under the effects of external factors. The approach of relating local assessment of species richness, and in particular of the ancient forest species pool, to land-use patterns may play an important role for the science-policy interface by supporting and strengthening conservation and regional planning decision making.

Joint Bayesian Estimation of Quasar Continua and the Lyα Forest Flux Probability Distribution Function

Science.gov (United States)

Eilers, Anna-Christina; Hennawi, Joseph F.; Lee, Khee-Gan

2017-08-01

We present a new Bayesian algorithm making use of Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling that allows us to simultaneously estimate the unknown continuum level of each quasar in an ensemble of high-resolution spectra, as well as their common probability distribution function (PDF) for the transmitted Lyα forest flux. This fully automated PDF regulated continuum fitting method models the unknown quasar continuum with a linear principal component analysis (PCA) basis, with the PCA coefficients treated as nuisance parameters. The method allows one to estimate parameters governing the thermal state of the intergalactic medium (IGM), such as the slope of the temperature-density relation γ -1, while marginalizing out continuum uncertainties in a fully Bayesian way. Using realistic mock quasar spectra created from a simplified semi-numerical model of the IGM, we show that this method recovers the underlying quasar continua to a precision of ≃ 7 % and ≃ 10 % at z = 3 and z = 5, respectively. Given the number of principal component spectra, this is comparable to the underlying accuracy of the PCA model itself. Most importantly, we show that we can achieve a nearly unbiased estimate of the slope γ -1 of the IGM temperature-density relation with a precision of +/- 8.6 % at z = 3 and +/- 6.1 % at z = 5, for an ensemble of ten mock high-resolution quasar spectra. Applying this method to real quasar spectra and comparing to a more realistic IGM model from hydrodynamical simulations would enable precise measurements of the thermal and cosmological parameters governing the IGM, albeit with somewhat larger uncertainties, given the increased flexibility of the model.

Putting Us on the Map: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya Landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Sever, Thomas L.; Saturno, William

2004-01-01

A common problem for archaeologists studying ancient settlement in the Maya Lowlands is overcoming the dense vegetation in order to obtain an accurate regional perspective of the presence of archaeological sites, their exact locations and their overall extents. Most often this is done by extensive ground surveys in which many individuals chop parallel paths through the vegetation in search of sites. Once a site is found an effort is made to mark its location on a regional map and to explore its perimeter. Obtaining locational information has been made dramatically easier in recent years with the advent of improved Global Positioning Systems (GPS), however the process of initial identification of sites and the determination of their borders is exceedingly labor intensive and has remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of settlement surveys in the region in the 1950 s. Currently, we are revolutionizing settlement survey in the Maya Lowlands by using remotely sensed data from IKONOS, Quickbird, and Eo 1, satellites as well as airborne AIRSAR radar data. The Ancient Maya built their cities, towns and even their smallest hamlets using excavated limestone and lime plasters. We propose that the decay of these structures provides a unique microenvironment for the growth of vegetation as the levels of moisture and nutrition within the ruins vary substantially from those in the surrounding forest. These microenvironmental differences on the ground are likewise represented by compositional differences in the forest canopy both in the species present and in leaf color (representing moisture/nutritional stress) visible through the analysis of high-resolution satellite data. In this way the detailed analysis of forest composition can reveal a detailed picture of the ancient settlements that lie beneath it. Preliminary examinations using this technique have been very successful and we are refining these techniques in order to efficiently comprehend the details of

Putting us on the Map: Remote Sensing Investigation of the Ancient Maya Landscape

Science.gov (United States)

Sever, Thomas L.; Saturno, William; Irwin, Daniel E.

2004-01-01

A common problem for archaeologists studying ancient settlement in the Maya Lowlands is overcoming the dense vegetation in order to obtain an accurate regional perspective of the presence of archaeological sites, their exact locations and their overall extents. Most often this is done by extensive ground surveys in which many individuals chop parallel paths through the vegetation in search of sites. Once a site is found an effort is made to mark its location on a regional map and to explore its perimeter. Obtaining locational information has been made dramatically easier in recent years with the advent of improved Global Positioning Systems (GPS), however the process of initial identification of sites and the determination of their borders is exceedingly labor intensive and has remained relatively unchanged since the beginning of settlement surveys in the region in the 1950's. Currently, we are revolutionizing settlement survey in the Maya Lowlands by using remotely sensed data from IKONOS, Quickbird, and Eol, satellites. The Ancient Maya built their cities, towns and even their smallest hamlets using excavated limestone and lime plasters. We propose that the decay of these structures provides a unique microenvironment for the growth of vegetation as the levels of moisture and nutrition within the ruins vary substantially from those in the surrounding forest. These microenvironmental differences on the ground are likewise represented by compositional differences in the forest canopy both in the species present and in leaf color (representing moisture/nutritional stress) visible through the analysis of high- resolution satellite data. In this way the detailed analysis of forest composition can reveal a detailed picture of the ancient settlements that lie beneath it. Preliminary examinations using this technique have been very successful and we are refining these techniques in order to efficiently comprehend the details of Ancient Maya settlement in the Lowlands.

Ancient Maya impacts on the Earth's surface: An Early Anthropocene analog?

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Tim; Luzzadder-Beach, Sheryl; Cook, Duncan; Dunning, Nicholas; Kennett, Douglas J.; Krause, Samantha; Terry, Richard; Trein, Debora; Valdez, Fred

2015-09-01

The measure of the "Mayacene," a microcosm of the Early Anthropocene that occurred from c. 3000 to 1000 BP, comes from multiple Late Quaternary paleoenvironmental records. We synthesized the evidence for Maya impacts on climate, vegetation, hydrology and the lithosphere, from studies of soils, lakes, floodplains, wetlands and other ecosystems. Maya civilization had likely altered local to regional ecosystems and hydrology by the Preclassic Period (3000-1700 BP), but these impacts waned by 1000 BP. They altered ecosystems with vast urban and rural infrastructure that included thousands of reservoirs, wetland fields and canals, terraces, field ridges, and temples. Although there is abundant evidence that indicates the Maya altered their forests, even at the large urban complex of Tikal as much as 40% of the forest remained intact through the Classic period. Existing forests are still influenced by ancient Maya forest gardening, particularly by the large expanses of ancient stone structures, terraces, and wetland fields that form their substrates. A few studies suggest deforestation and other land uses probably also warmed and dried regional climate by the Classic Period (1700-1100 BP). A much larger body of research documents the Maya impacts on hydrology, in the form of dams, reservoirs, canals, eroded soils and urban design for runoff. Another metric of the "Mayacene" are paleosols, which contain chemical evidence for human occupation, revealed by high phosphorus concentrations and carbon isotope ratios of C4 species like maize in the C3-dominated tropical forest ecosystem. Paleosol sequences exhibit "Maya Clays," a facies that reflects a glut of rapidly eroded sediments that overlie pre-Maya paleosols. This stratigraphy is conspicuous in many dated soil profiles and marks the large-scale Maya transformation of the landscape in the Preclassic and Classic periods. Some of these also have increased phosphorous and carbon isotope evidence of C4 species. We synthesize

Pre-whaling genetic diversity and population ecology in eastern Pacific gray whales: insights from ancient DNA and stable isotopes.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Elizabeth Alter

Full Text Available Commercial whaling decimated many whale populations, including the eastern Pacific gray whale, but little is known about how population dynamics or ecology differed prior to these removals. Of particular interest is the possibility of a large population decline prior to whaling, as such a decline could explain the ~5-fold difference between genetic estimates of prior abundance and estimates based on historical records. We analyzed genetic (mitochondrial control region and isotopic information from modern and prehistoric gray whales using serial coalescent simulations and Bayesian skyline analyses to test for a pre-whaling decline and to examine prehistoric genetic diversity, population dynamics and ecology. Simulations demonstrate that significant genetic differences observed between ancient and modern samples could be caused by a large, recent population bottleneck, roughly concurrent with commercial whaling. Stable isotopes show minimal differences between modern and ancient gray whale foraging ecology. Using rejection-based Approximate Bayesian Computation, we estimate the size of the population bottleneck at its minimum abundance and the pre-bottleneck abundance. Our results agree with previous genetic studies suggesting the historical size of the eastern gray whale population was roughly three to five times its current size.

Bridging the gap between ecosystem theory and forest watershed management

Science.gov (United States)

Jackson Webster; Wayne Swank; James Vose; Jennifer Knoepp; Katherine Elliott

2014-01-01

The history of forests and logging in North America provides a back drop for our study of Watershed (WS) 7. Prior to European settlement, potentially commercial forests covered approximately 45% of North America, but not all of it was the pristine, ancient forest that some have imagined. Prior to 1492, Native Americans had extensive settlements throughout eastern...

Mitochondrial phylogenomics of modern and ancient equids.

Science.gov (United States)

Vilstrup, Julia T; Seguin-Orlando, Andaine; Stiller, Mathias; Ginolhac, Aurelien; Raghavan, Maanasa; Nielsen, Sandra C A; Weinstock, Jacobo; Froese, Duane; Vasiliev, Sergei K; Ovodov, Nikolai D; Clary, Joel; Helgen, Kristofer M; Fleischer, Robert C; Cooper, Alan; Shapiro, Beth; Orlando, Ludovic

2013-01-01

The genus Equus is richly represented in the fossil record, yet our understanding of taxonomic relationships within this genus remains limited. To estimate the phylogenetic relationships among modern horses, zebras, asses and donkeys, we generated the first data set including complete mitochondrial sequences from all seven extant lineages within the genus Equus. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic inference confirms that zebras are monophyletic within the genus, and the Plains and Grevy's zebras form a well-supported monophyletic group. Using ancient DNA techniques, we further characterize the complete mitochondrial genomes of three extinct equid lineages (the New World stilt-legged horses, NWSLH; the subgenus Sussemionus; and the Quagga, Equus quagga quagga). Comparisons with extant taxa confirm the NWSLH as being part of the caballines, and the Quagga and Plains zebras as being conspecific. However, the evolutionary relationships among the non-caballine lineages, including the now-extinct subgenus Sussemionus, remain unresolved, most likely due to extremely rapid radiation within this group. The closest living outgroups (rhinos and tapirs) were found to be too phylogenetically distant to calibrate reliable molecular clocks. Additional mitochondrial genome sequence data, including radiocarbon dated ancient equids, will be required before revisiting the exact timing of the lineage radiation leading up to modern equids, which for now were found to have possibly shared a common ancestor as far as up to 4 Million years ago (Mya).

Mitochondrial Phylogenomics of Modern and Ancient Equids

Science.gov (United States)

Vilstrup, Julia T.; Seguin-Orlando, Andaine; Stiller, Mathias; Ginolhac, Aurelien; Raghavan, Maanasa; Nielsen, Sandra C. A.; Weinstock, Jacobo; Froese, Duane; Vasiliev, Sergei K.; Ovodov, Nikolai D.; Clary, Joel; Helgen, Kristofer M.; Fleischer, Robert C.; Cooper, Alan; Shapiro, Beth; Orlando, Ludovic

2013-01-01

The genus Equus is richly represented in the fossil record, yet our understanding of taxonomic relationships within this genus remains limited. To estimate the phylogenetic relationships among modern horses, zebras, asses and donkeys, we generated the first data set including complete mitochondrial sequences from all seven extant lineages within the genus Equus. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic inference confirms that zebras are monophyletic within the genus, and the Plains and Grevy’s zebras form a well-supported monophyletic group. Using ancient DNA techniques, we further characterize the complete mitochondrial genomes of three extinct equid lineages (the New World stilt-legged horses, NWSLH; the subgenus Sussemionus; and the Quagga, Equus quagga quagga). Comparisons with extant taxa confirm the NWSLH as being part of the caballines, and the Quagga and Plains zebras as being conspecific. However, the evolutionary relationships among the non-caballine lineages, including the now-extinct subgenus Sussemionus, remain unresolved, most likely due to extremely rapid radiation within this group. The closest living outgroups (rhinos and tapirs) were found to be too phylogenetically distant to calibrate reliable molecular clocks. Additional mitochondrial genome sequence data, including radiocarbon dated ancient equids, will be required before revisiting the exact timing of the lineage radiation leading up to modern equids, which for now were found to have possibly shared a common ancestor as far as up to 4 Million years ago (Mya). PMID:23437078

Mitochondrial phylogenomics of modern and ancient equids.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julia T Vilstrup

Full Text Available The genus Equus is richly represented in the fossil record, yet our understanding of taxonomic relationships within this genus remains limited. To estimate the phylogenetic relationships among modern horses, zebras, asses and donkeys, we generated the first data set including complete mitochondrial sequences from all seven extant lineages within the genus Equus. Bayesian and Maximum Likelihood phylogenetic inference confirms that zebras are monophyletic within the genus, and the Plains and Grevy's zebras form a well-supported monophyletic group. Using ancient DNA techniques, we further characterize the complete mitochondrial genomes of three extinct equid lineages (the New World stilt-legged horses, NWSLH; the subgenus Sussemionus; and the Quagga, Equus quagga quagga. Comparisons with extant taxa confirm the NWSLH as being part of the caballines, and the Quagga and Plains zebras as being conspecific. However, the evolutionary relationships among the non-caballine lineages, including the now-extinct subgenus Sussemionus, remain unresolved, most likely due to extremely rapid radiation within this group. The closest living outgroups (rhinos and tapirs were found to be too phylogenetically distant to calibrate reliable molecular clocks. Additional mitochondrial genome sequence data, including radiocarbon dated ancient equids, will be required before revisiting the exact timing of the lineage radiation leading up to modern equids, which for now were found to have possibly shared a common ancestor as far as up to 4 Million years ago (Mya.

Ancient mitogenomics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ho, Simon Y. W.; Gilbert, Tom

2010-01-01

the technical challenges that face researchers in the field. We catalogue the diverse sequencing methods and source materials used to obtain ancient mitogenomic sequences, summarise the associated genetic and phylogenetic studies that have been conducted, and evaluate the future prospects of the field.......The mitochondrial genome has been the traditional focus of most research into ancient DNA, owing to its high copy number and population-level variability. Despite this long-standing interest in mitochondrial DNA, it was only in 2001 that the first complete ancient mitogenomic sequences were...... obtained. As a result of various methodological developments, including the introduction of high-throughput sequencing techniques, the total number of ancient mitogenome sequences has increased rapidly over the past few years. In this review, we present a brief history of ancient mitogenomics and describe...

Forest hydrology in China: introduction to the featured collection

Science.gov (United States)

Ge Sun; Shirong Liu; Zhiqiang Zhang; Xiaohua Wei

2008-01-01

Chinese people have long recognized the importance of forests and water in environment, societal development, and civilization. The philosophical thoughts are well reflected in many ancient paintings and stories that picture the harmony of forests, water, and mountains, and in fact, well-respected Chinese rulers are known for their contributions to harnessing large...

Methods for identifying SNP interactions: a review on variations of Logic Regression, Random Forest and Bayesian logistic regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Carla Chia-Ming; Schwender, Holger; Keith, Jonathan; Nunkesser, Robin; Mengersen, Kerrie; Macrossan, Paula

2011-01-01

Due to advancements in computational ability, enhanced technology and a reduction in the price of genotyping, more data are being generated for understanding genetic associations with diseases and disorders. However, with the availability of large data sets comes the inherent challenges of new methods of statistical analysis and modeling. Considering a complex phenotype may be the effect of a combination of multiple loci, various statistical methods have been developed for identifying genetic epistasis effects. Among these methods, logic regression (LR) is an intriguing approach incorporating tree-like structures. Various methods have built on the original LR to improve different aspects of the model. In this study, we review four variations of LR, namely Logic Feature Selection, Monte Carlo Logic Regression, Genetic Programming for Association Studies, and Modified Logic Regression-Gene Expression Programming, and investigate the performance of each method using simulated and real genotype data. We contrast these with another tree-like approach, namely Random Forests, and a Bayesian logistic regression with stochastic search variable selection.

Ancient DNA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Willerslev, Eske; Cooper, Alan

2004-01-01

ancient DNA, palaeontology, palaeoecology, archaeology, population genetics, DNA damage and repair......ancient DNA, palaeontology, palaeoecology, archaeology, population genetics, DNA damage and repair...

Bayesian methods for hackers probabilistic programming and Bayesian inference

CERN Document Server

Davidson-Pilon, Cameron

2016-01-01

Bayesian methods of inference are deeply natural and extremely powerful. However, most discussions of Bayesian inference rely on intensely complex mathematical analyses and artificial examples, making it inaccessible to anyone without a strong mathematical background. Now, though, Cameron Davidson-Pilon introduces Bayesian inference from a computational perspective, bridging theory to practice–freeing you to get results using computing power. Bayesian Methods for Hackers illuminates Bayesian inference through probabilistic programming with the powerful PyMC language and the closely related Python tools NumPy, SciPy, and Matplotlib. Using this approach, you can reach effective solutions in small increments, without extensive mathematical intervention. Davidson-Pilon begins by introducing the concepts underlying Bayesian inference, comparing it with other techniques and guiding you through building and training your first Bayesian model. Next, he introduces PyMC through a series of detailed examples a...

Did the ancient Egyptians migrate to ancient Nigeria?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jock M. Agai

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Literatures concerning the history of West African peoples published from 1900 to 1970 debate�the possible migrations of the Egyptians into West Africa. Writers like Samuel Johnson and�Lucas Olumide believe that the ancient Egyptians penetrated through ancient Nigeria but Leo�Frobenius and Geoffrey Parrinder frowned at this opinion. Using the works of these early�20th century writers of West African history together with a Yoruba legend which teaches�about the origin of their earliest ancestor(s, this researcher investigates the theories that the�ancient Egyptians had contact with the ancient Nigerians and particularly with the Yorubas.Intradisciplinary and/or interdisciplinary implications: There is an existing ideology�amongst the Yorubas and other writers of Yoruba history that the original ancestors of�the Yorubas originated in ancient Egypt hence there was migration between Egypt and�Yorubaland. This researcher contends that even if there was migration between Egypt and�Nigeria, such migration did not take place during the predynastic and dynastic period as�speculated by some scholars. The subject is open for further research.

Development of a Regional Lidar-Derived Above-Ground Biomass Model with Bayesian Model Averaging for Use in Ponderosa Pine and Mixed Conifer Forests in Arizona and New Mexico, USA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karis Tenneson

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Historical forest management practices in the southwestern US have left forests prone to high-severity, stand-replacement fires. Reducing the cost of forest-fire management and reintroducing fire to the landscape without negative impact depends on detailed knowledge of stand composition, in particular, above-ground biomass (AGB. Lidar-based modeling techniques provide opportunities to increase ability of managers to monitor AGB and other forest metrics at reduced cost. We developed a regional lidar-based statistical model to estimate AGB for Ponderosa pine and mixed conifer forest systems of the southwestern USA, using previously collected field data. Model selection was performed using Bayesian model averaging (BMA to reduce researcher bias, fully explore the model space, and avoid overfitting. The selected model includes measures of canopy height, canopy density, and height distribution. The model selected with BMA explains 71% of the variability in field-estimates of AGB, and the RMSE of the two independent validation data sets are 23.25 and 32.82 Mg/ha. The regional model is structured in accordance with previously described local models, and performs equivalently to these smaller scale models. We have demonstrated the effectiveness of lidar for developing cost-effective, robust regional AGB models for monitoring and planning adaptively at the landscape scale.

High-Throughput DNA sequencing of ancient wood.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagner, Stefanie; Lagane, Frédéric; Seguin-Orlando, Andaine; Schubert, Mikkel; Leroy, Thibault; Guichoux, Erwan; Chancerel, Emilie; Bech-Hebelstrup, Inger; Bernard, Vincent; Billard, Cyrille; Billaud, Yves; Bolliger, Matthias; Croutsch, Christophe; Čufar, Katarina; Eynaud, Frédérique; Heussner, Karl Uwe; Köninger, Joachim; Langenegger, Fabien; Leroy, Frédéric; Lima, Christine; Martinelli, Nicoletta; Momber, Garry; Billamboz, André; Nelle, Oliver; Palomo, Antoni; Piqué, Raquel; Ramstein, Marianne; Schweichel, Roswitha; Stäuble, Harald; Tegel, Willy; Terradas, Xavier; Verdin, Florence; Plomion, Christophe; Kremer, Antoine; Orlando, Ludovic

2018-03-01

Reconstructing the colonization and demographic dynamics that gave rise to extant forests is essential to forecasts of forest responses to environmental changes. Classical approaches to map how population of trees changed through space and time largely rely on pollen distribution patterns, with only a limited number of studies exploiting DNA molecules preserved in wooden tree archaeological and subfossil remains. Here, we advance such analyses by applying high-throughput (HTS) DNA sequencing to wood archaeological and subfossil material for the first time, using a comprehensive sample of 167 European white oak waterlogged remains spanning a large temporal (from 550 to 9,800 years) and geographical range across Europe. The successful characterization of the endogenous DNA and exogenous microbial DNA of 140 (~83%) samples helped the identification of environmental conditions favouring long-term DNA preservation in wood remains, and started to unveil the first trends in the DNA decay process in wood material. Additionally, the maternally inherited chloroplast haplotypes of 21 samples from three periods of forest human-induced use (Neolithic, Bronze Age and Middle Ages) were found to be consistent with those of modern populations growing in the same geographic areas. Our work paves the way for further studies aiming at using ancient DNA preserved in wood to reconstruct the micro-evolutionary response of trees to climate change and human forest management. © 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cassin\\'s hawk-eagle Spizaetus africanus in Ndundulu Forest: a first ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A single adult Cassin's hawk-eagle Spizaetus africanus was sighted on five occasions over three years in a highland forest in the Udzungwa Mountains, the first ever record of this species in Tanzania. This discovery has potentially significant biogeographical implications, strengthening ancient links between the forests of ...

Bayesian non parametric modelling of Higgs pair production

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Scarpa Bruno

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Statistical classification models are commonly used to separate a signal from a background. In this talk we face the problem of isolating the signal of Higgs pair production using the decay channel in which each boson decays into a pair of b-quarks. Typically in this context non parametric methods are used, such as Random Forests or different types of boosting tools. We remain in the same non-parametric framework, but we propose to face the problem following a Bayesian approach. A Dirichlet process is used as prior for the random effects in a logit model which is fitted by leveraging the Polya-Gamma data augmentation. Refinements of the model include the insertion in the simple model of P-splines to relate explanatory variables with the response and the use of Bayesian trees (BART to describe the atoms in the Dirichlet process.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2010-01-01

Updated and expanded, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence, Second Edition provides a practical and accessible introduction to the main concepts, foundation, and applications of Bayesian networks. It focuses on both the causal discovery of networks and Bayesian inference procedures. Adopting a causal interpretation of Bayesian networks, the authors discuss the use of Bayesian networks for causal modeling. They also draw on their own applied research to illustrate various applications of the technology.New to the Second EditionNew chapter on Bayesian network classifiersNew section on object-oriente

Water and sustainable land use at the ancient tropical city of Tikal, Guatemala.

Science.gov (United States)

Scarborough, Vernon L; Dunning, Nicholas P; Tankersley, Kenneth B; Carr, Christopher; Weaver, Eric; Grazioso, Liwy; Lane, Brian; Jones, John G; Buttles, Palma; Valdez, Fred; Lentz, David L

2012-07-31

The access to water and the engineered landscapes accommodating its collection and allocation are pivotal issues for assessing sustainability. Recent mapping, sediment coring, and formal excavation at Tikal, Guatemala, have markedly expanded our understanding of ancient Maya water and land use. Among the landscape and engineering feats identified are the largest ancient dam identified in the Maya area of Central America; the posited manner by which reservoir waters were released; construction of a cofferdam for dredging the largest reservoir at Tikal; the presence of ancient springs linked to the initial colonization of Tikal; the use of sand filtration to cleanse water entering reservoirs; a switching station that facilitated seasonal filling and release; and the deepest rock-cut canal segment in the Maya Lowlands. These engineering achievements were integrated into a system that sustained the urban complex through deep time, and they have implications for sustainable construction and use of water management systems in tropical forest settings worldwide.

Bayesian Graphical Models

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Finn Verner; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

2016-01-01

Mathematically, a Bayesian graphical model is a compact representation of the joint probability distribution for a set of variables. The most frequently used type of Bayesian graphical models are Bayesian networks. The structural part of a Bayesian graphical model is a graph consisting of nodes...

A Hierarchical Bayesian Model to Predict Self-Thinning Line for Chinese Fir in Southern China.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiongqing Zhang

Full Text Available Self-thinning is a dynamic equilibrium between forest growth and mortality at full site occupancy. Parameters of the self-thinning lines are often confounded by differences across various stand and site conditions. For overcoming the problem of hierarchical and repeated measures, we used hierarchical Bayesian method to estimate the self-thinning line. The results showed that the self-thinning line for Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.Hook. plantations was not sensitive to the initial planting density. The uncertainty of model predictions was mostly due to within-subject variability. The simulation precision of hierarchical Bayesian method was better than that of stochastic frontier function (SFF. Hierarchical Bayesian method provided a reasonable explanation of the impact of other variables (site quality, soil type, aspect, etc. on self-thinning line, which gave us the posterior distribution of parameters of self-thinning line. The research of self-thinning relationship could be benefit from the use of hierarchical Bayesian method.

Ancient Resistome.

Science.gov (United States)

Olaitan, Abiola Olumuyiwa; Rolain, Jean-Marc

2016-08-01

Antibiotic resistance is an ancient biological mechanism in bacteria, although its proliferation in our contemporary world has been amplified through antimicrobial therapy. Recent studies conducted on ancient environmental and human samples have uncovered numerous antibiotic-resistant bacteria and resistance genes. The resistance genes that have been reported from the analysis of ancient bacterial DNA include genes coding for several classes of antibiotics, such as glycopeptides, β-lactams, tetracyclines, and macrolides. The investigation of the resistome of ancient bacteria is a recent and emerging field of research, and technological advancements such as next-generation sequencing will further contribute to its growth. It is hoped that the knowledge gained from this research will help us to better understand the evolution of antibiotic resistance genes and will also be used in drug design as a proactive measure against antibiotic resistance.

Bayesian artificial intelligence

CERN Document Server

Korb, Kevin B

2003-01-01

As the power of Bayesian techniques has become more fully realized, the field of artificial intelligence has embraced Bayesian methodology and integrated it to the point where an introduction to Bayesian techniques is now a core course in many computer science programs. Unlike other books on the subject, Bayesian Artificial Intelligence keeps mathematical detail to a minimum and covers a broad range of topics. The authors integrate all of Bayesian net technology and learning Bayesian net technology and apply them both to knowledge engineering. They emphasize understanding and intuition but also provide the algorithms and technical background needed for applications. Software, exercises, and solutions are available on the authors' website.

Forests, fields, and the edge of sustainability at the ancient Maya city of Tikal.

Science.gov (United States)

Lentz, David L; Dunning, Nicholas P; Scarborough, Vernon L; Magee, Kevin S; Thompson, Kim M; Weaver, Eric; Carr, Christopher; Terry, Richard E; Islebe, Gerald; Tankersley, Kenneth B; Grazioso Sierra, Liwy; Jones, John G; Buttles, Palma; Valdez, Fred; Ramos Hernandez, Carmen E

2014-12-30

Tikal has long been viewed as one of the leading polities of the ancient Maya realm, yet how the city was able to maintain its substantial population in the midst of a tropical forest environment has been a topic of unresolved debate among researchers for decades. We present ecological, paleoethnobotanical, hydraulic, remote sensing, edaphic, and isotopic evidence that reveals how the Late Classic Maya at Tikal practiced intensive forms of agriculture (including irrigation, terrace construction, arboriculture, household gardens, and short fallow swidden) coupled with carefully controlled agroforestry and a complex system of water retention and redistribution. Empirical evidence is presented to demonstrate that this assiduously managed anthropogenic ecosystem of the Classic period Maya was a landscape optimized in a way that provided sustenance to a relatively large population in a preindustrial, low-density urban community. This landscape productivity optimization, however, came with a heavy cost of reduced environmental resiliency and a complete reliance on consistent annual rainfall. Recent speleothem data collected from regional caves showed that persistent episodes of unusually low rainfall were prevalent in the mid-9th century A.D., a time period that coincides strikingly with the abandonment of Tikal and the erection of its last dated monument in A.D. 869. The intensified resource management strategy used at Tikal-already operating at the landscape's carrying capacity-ceased to provide adequate food, fuel, and drinking water for the Late Classic populace in the face of extended periods of drought. As a result, social disorder and abandonment ensued.

Exploring Ancient Skies A Survey of Ancient and Cultural Astronomy

CERN Document Server

Kelley, David H

2011-01-01

Exploring Ancient Skies brings together the methods of archaeology and the insights of modern astronomy to explore the science of astronomy as it was practiced in various cultures prior to the invention of the telescope. The book reviews an enormous and growing body of literature on the cultures of the ancient Mediterranean, the Far East, and the New World (particularly Mesoamerica), putting the ancient astronomical materials into their archaeological and cultural contexts. The authors begin with an overview of the field and proceed to essential aspects of naked-eye astronomy, followed by an examination of specific cultures. The book concludes by taking into account the purposes of ancient astronomy: astrology, navigation, calendar regulation, and (not least) the understanding of our place and role in the universe. Skies are recreated to display critical events as they would have appeared to ancient observers—events such as the supernova of 1054 A.D., the "lion horoscope," and the Star of Bethlehem. Explori...

An Improved Rotation Forest for Multi-Feature Remote-Sensing Imagery Classification

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yingchang Xiu

2017-11-01

Full Text Available Multi-feature, especially multi-temporal, remote-sensing data have the potential to improve land cover classification accuracy. However, sometimes it is difficult to utilize all the features efficiently. To enhance classification performance based on multi-feature imagery, an improved rotation forest, combining Principal Component Analysis (PCA and a boosting naïve Bayesian tree (NBTree, is proposed. First, feature extraction was carried out with PCA. The feature set was randomly split into several disjoint subsets; then, PCA was applied to each subset, and new training data for linear extracted features based on original training data were obtained. These steps were repeated several times. Second, based on the new training data, a boosting naïve Bayesian tree was constructed as the base classifier, which aims to achieve lower prediction error than a decision tree in the original rotation forest. At the classification phase, the improved rotation forest has two-layer voting. It first obtains several predictions through weighted voting in a boosting naïve Bayesian tree; then, the first-layer vote predicts by majority to obtain the final result. To examine the classification performance, the improved rotation forest was applied to multi-feature remote-sensing images, including MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI imagery time series, MODIS Surface Reflectance products and ancillary data in Shandong Province for 2013. The EVI imagery time series was preprocessed using harmonic analysis of time series (HANTS to reduce the noise effects. The overall accuracy of the final classification result was 89.17%, and the Kappa coefficient was 0.71, which outperforms the original rotation forest and other classifier ensemble results, as well as the NASA land cover product. However, this new algorithm requires more computational time, meaning the efficiency needs to be further improved. Generally, the improved rotation forest has a potential advantage in

Quantifying Ancient Maya Land Use Legacy Effects on Contemporary Rainforest Canopy Structure

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jessica N. Hightower

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Human land use legacies have significant and long-lasting ecological impacts across landscapes. Investigating ancient (>400 years legacy effects can be problematic due to the difficulty in detecting specific, historic land uses, especially those hidden beneath dense canopies. Caracol, the largest (~200 km2 Maya archaeological site in Belize, was abandoned ca. A.D. 900, leaving behind myriad structures, causeways, and an extensive network of agricultural terraces that persist beneath the architecturally complex tropical forest canopy. Airborne LiDAR enables the detection of these below-canopy archaeological features while simultaneously providing a detailed record of the aboveground 3-dimensional canopy organization, which is indicative of a forest’s ecological function. Here, this remote sensing technology is used to determine the effects of ancient land use legacies on contemporary forest structure. Canopy morphology was assessed by extracting LiDAR point clouds (0.25 ha plots from LiDAR-identified terraced (n = 150 and non-terraced (n = 150 areas on low (0°–10°, medium (10°–20°, and high (>20° slopes. We calculated the average canopy height, canopy openness, and vertical diversity from the LiDAR returns, with topographic features (i.e., slope, elevation, and aspect as covariates. Using a PerMANOVA procedure, we determined that forests growing on agricultural terraces exhibited significantly different canopy structure from those growing on non-terraced land. Terraces appear to mediate the effect of slope, resulting in less structural variation between slope and non-sloped land and yielding taller, more closed, more vertically diverse forests. These human land uses abandoned >1000 years ago continue to impact contemporary tropical rainforests having implications related to arboreal habitat and carbon storage.

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

OpenAIRE

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

This article proposes Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared to conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian mediation analysis, inference is straightforward and exact, which makes it appealing for studies with small samples. Third, the Bayesian approach is conceptua...

Introduction to Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2017-01-01

There is a strong upsurge in the use of Bayesian methods in applied statistical analysis, yet most introductory statistics texts only present frequentist methods. Bayesian statistics has many important advantages that students should learn about if they are going into fields where statistics will be used. In this Third Edition, four newly-added chapters address topics that reflect the rapid advances in the field of Bayesian staistics. The author continues to provide a Bayesian treatment of introductory statistical topics, such as scientific data gathering, discrete random variables, robust Bayesian methods, and Bayesian approaches to inferenfe cfor discrete random variables, bionomial proprotion, Poisson, normal mean, and simple linear regression. In addition, newly-developing topics in the field are presented in four new chapters: Bayesian inference with unknown mean and variance; Bayesian inference for Multivariate Normal mean vector; Bayesian inference for Multiple Linear RegressionModel; and Computati...

Ancient genomes

OpenAIRE

Hoelzel, A Rus

2005-01-01

Ever since its invention, the polymerase chain reaction has been the method of choice for work with ancient DNA. In an application of modern genomic methods to material from the Pleistocene, a recent study has instead undertaken to clone and sequence a portion of the ancient genome of the cave bear.

Richness of Ancient Forest Plant Species Indicates Suitable Habitats for Macrofungi

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hofmeister, J.; Hošek, J.; Brabec, Marek; Dvořák, D.; Beran, M.; Deckerová, H.; Burel, J.; Kříž, M.; Borovička, Jan; Běťák, J.; Vašutová, Martina

2014-01-01

Roč. 23, č. 8 (2014), s. 2015-2031 ISSN 0960-3115 Grant - others:GA MŽP(CZ) SP/2D1/146/08 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 ; RVO:67985831 ; RVO:67179843 Keywords : diversity * forest continuity * forest management * Herb-layer plant species * red-listed species * species richness * surrogacy Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research; EH - Ecology, Behaviour (GLU-S); EH - Ecology, Behaviour (UEK-B) Impact factor: 2.365, year: 2014

Soil acid phosphomonoesterase activity and phosphorus forms in ancient and post-agricultural black alder [Alnus glutinosa (L. Gaertn.] woodlands

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anna Orczewska

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Black alder, an N-fixing tree is considered to accelerate the availability of phosphorus in soils due to the increased production of phosphatase enzymes, which are responsible for the P release from the litter. Acid phosphatase activity plays a pivotal role in organic P mineralization in forest soils and in making P available to plants. In order to check whether Alnus glutinosa stimulates acid phosphomonoesterase (PHACID activity, we compared enzyme activities, total P concentration (PTOT, plant-available P (PAVAIL, organic P (PORG and inorganic P (PINORG, and organic matter content in 27 ancient and 27 post-agricultural alder woods (the latter ones representing different age classes: 11-20, 21-40 and 41-60 years of soil samples taken from the litter and the mineral layers. Phosphomonoesterase activity, organic matter, PTOT, PINORG and PORG concentrations were significantly higher in ancient alder woods than in the soils of post-agricultural forests. Significant differences in the acid phosphatase activity, organic matter and PAVAIL concentration were noted between the litter and mineral layers within the same forest type. In recent stands the amount of organic matter and phosphatase activity increased significantly with the age of alder stands, although only in the mineral layer of their soils. Phosphomonoesterase activity, organic matter and PAVAIL content were higher in a litter layer and decreased significantly at a mineral depth of the soil. The acid phosphatase activity was significantly correlated with organic matter content in both ancient and recent stands. There was no significant relationship between PHACID activity and any P forms.

Apps for Ancient Civilizations

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, Stephanie

2011-01-01

This project incorporates technology and a historical emphasis on science drawn from ancient civilizations to promote a greater understanding of conceptual science. In the Apps for Ancient Civilizations project, students investigate an ancient culture to discover how people might have used science and math smartphone apps to make their lives…

Characterizing Species at Risk II: Using Bayesian Belief Networks as Decision Support Tools to Determine Species Conservation Categories Under the Northwest Forest Plan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruce G. Marcot

2006-12-01

Full Text Available We developed a set of decision-aiding models as Bayesian belief networks (BBNs that represented a complex set of evaluation guidelines used to determine the appropriate conservation of hundreds of potentially rare species on federally-administered lands in the Pacific Northwest United States. The models were used in a structured assessment and paneling procedure as part of an adaptive management process that evaluated new scientific information under the Northwest Forest Plan. The models were not prescriptive but helped resource managers and specialists to evaluate complicated and at times conflicting conservation guidelines and to reduce bias and uncertainty in evaluating the scientific data. We concluded that applying the BBN modeling framework to complex and equivocal evaluation guidelines provided a set of clear, intuitive decision-aiding tools that greatly aided the species evaluation and conservation process.

Groupings of life-history traits are associated with distribution of forest plant species in a fragmented landscape

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Endels, Patrick; Adriaens, Dries; Bekker, Renee M.; Knevel, Irma C.; Decocq, Guillaume; Hermy, Martin

Questions: 1. Do relationships among forest plant traits correspond to dispersability-persistence trade-offs or other intertrait correlations found in the literature? 2. Do species groups delineated by trait similarity, differ in occurrence in ancient vs. new forests or isolated vs more continuous

Bayesian biostatistics

CERN Document Server

Lesaffre, Emmanuel

2012-01-01

The growth of biostatistics has been phenomenal in recent years and has been marked by considerable technical innovation in both methodology and computational practicality. One area that has experienced significant growth is Bayesian methods. The growing use of Bayesian methodology has taken place partly due to an increasing number of practitioners valuing the Bayesian paradigm as matching that of scientific discovery. In addition, computational advances have allowed for more complex models to be fitted routinely to realistic data sets. Through examples, exercises and a combination of introd

Bayesian data analysis for newcomers.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

This article explains the foundational concepts of Bayesian data analysis using virtually no mathematical notation. Bayesian ideas already match your intuitions from everyday reasoning and from traditional data analysis. Simple examples of Bayesian data analysis are presented that illustrate how the information delivered by a Bayesian analysis can be directly interpreted. Bayesian approaches to null-value assessment are discussed. The article clarifies misconceptions about Bayesian methods that newcomers might have acquired elsewhere. We discuss prior distributions and explain how they are not a liability but an important asset. We discuss the relation of Bayesian data analysis to Bayesian models of mind, and we briefly discuss what methodological problems Bayesian data analysis is not meant to solve. After you have read this article, you should have a clear sense of how Bayesian data analysis works and the sort of information it delivers, and why that information is so intuitive and useful for drawing conclusions from data.

How to practise Bayesian statistics outside the Bayesian church: What philosophy for Bayesian statistical modelling?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Haig, B.D.

2013-01-01

Unlike most other statistical frameworks, Bayesian statistical inference is wedded to a particular approach in the philosophy of science (see Howson & Urbach, 2006); this approach is called Bayesianism. Rather than being concerned with model fitting, this position in the philosophy of science

A study on provenance relation between Jiaotanxia ancient Guan porcelain and Qingliangsi ancient Ru porcelain by NAA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Rongwu; Feng Songlin; Huang Zhongxiang; Jia Xiuqin

2004-01-01

11 samples of ancient Chinese Ru porcelain from Qingliangsi kiln, 23 samples of ancient Chinese Guan porcelain from Jiaotanxia kiln and 4 samples of modern archaized Guan porcelain were obtained to determine the contents of elements in each of them by neutron activation analysis (NAA). The NAA data were further analyzed using fuzzy cluster analysis to obtain the fuzzy cluster trend diagrams for the bodies' samples and the glazes samples respectively. The analysis shows that the raw material origins of the Jiaotanxia ancient Chinese Guan porcelain bodies samples are very concentrated; those of the Qingliangsi ancient Chinese Ru porcelain bodies samples are a little dispersed; those of ancient Chinese Guan porcelain glazes samples are relatively concentrated; those of ancient Chinese Ru porcelain glazes samples are dispersed; and the origins of the raw material of ancient Chinese Guan porcelain glazes samples are obviously different from those of ancient Chinese Ru porcelain glazes samples. The bodies samples and glazes samples of Jiaotanxia ancient Chinese Guan porcelain and those of Qingliangsi ancient Chinese Ru porcelain have some difference but can be compared with each other. (authors)

Bayesian Probability Theory

Science.gov (United States)

von der Linden, Wolfgang; Dose, Volker; von Toussaint, Udo

2014-06-01

Preface; Part I. Introduction: 1. The meaning of probability; 2. Basic definitions; 3. Bayesian inference; 4. Combinatrics; 5. Random walks; 6. Limit theorems; 7. Continuous distributions; 8. The central limit theorem; 9. Poisson processes and waiting times; Part II. Assigning Probabilities: 10. Transformation invariance; 11. Maximum entropy; 12. Qualified maximum entropy; 13. Global smoothness; Part III. Parameter Estimation: 14. Bayesian parameter estimation; 15. Frequentist parameter estimation; 16. The Cramer-Rao inequality; Part IV. Testing Hypotheses: 17. The Bayesian way; 18. The frequentist way; 19. Sampling distributions; 20. Bayesian vs frequentist hypothesis tests; Part V. Real World Applications: 21. Regression; 22. Inconsistent data; 23. Unrecognized signal contributions; 24. Change point problems; 25. Function estimation; 26. Integral equations; 27. Model selection; 28. Bayesian experimental design; Part VI. Probabilistic Numerical Techniques: 29. Numerical integration; 30. Monte Carlo methods; 31. Nested sampling; Appendixes; References; Index.

Forest crimes as a threat to sustainable forest management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S. Özden

2016-08-01

Full Text Available From ancient times to the present day, forest public relations has been an issue on the agenda. This relationship’s purpose was initially needed for shelter and nutrition; however today this process has changed with urbanization, overpopulation and understanding the new functions of forests. When land ownership became a tool of production, offenses occurred in order to convert forestlands to agricultural lands. So the vast majority of the world’s forests have been lost for this reason. Today, deforestation is occurring in tropical countries that are expecting to gain agricultural area. The purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between urbanization and the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of forest crimes, which are a major obstacle for sustainable forestry. Although forests cover about 27 % of Turkey’s territory, the forests are losing viability; the status of wood raw material per unit area and the total area of the country in the ratio of productive forests are becoming critical in Turkey. Turkey’s rugged terrain and factors such as human interventions, fires, deforestation for agriculture, illegal cuttings, or improper grazing reduce existing forests or cause deterioration of their structure. In the past, deforestation, as a result of human interventions in Turkey, was done by forest villagers who live in rural areas. The forest crimes depend on various socio-economic reasons and have many adverse effects on the sustainability of forest and forest existence. In developed countries, illegal interventions such as opening, grazing, cutting, occupation, use, settlement, or hunting crimes have been largely eliminated because of the absence of cadastral problems, the existence of more responsive people to protect the environment and forests and a rural population, which has a higher standard of living. In the last 20 years, there has been both a dramatic decrease in the population living in rural areas and a

Land-use history affects understorey plant species distributions in a large temperate-forest complex, Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Svenning, J.-C.; Baktoft, Karen H.; Balslev, Henrik

2009-01-01

In Europe, forests have been strongly influenced by human land-use for millennia. Here, we studied the importance of anthropogenic historical factors as determinants of understorey species distributions in a 967 ha Danish forest complex using 156 randomly placed 100-m2 plots, 15 environmental, 9...... dispersal and a strong literature record as ancient-forest species, were still concentrated in areas that were high forest in 1805. Among the younger forests, there were clear floristic differences between those on reclaimed bogs and those not. Apparently remnant populations of wet-soil plants were still...

A Bayesian Belief Network Approach to Predict Damages Caused by Disturbance Agents

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfred Radl

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In mountain forests of Central Europe, storm and snow breakage as well as bark beetles are the prevailing major disturbances. The complex interrelatedness between climate, disturbance agents, and forest management increases the need for an integrative approach explicitly addressing the multiple interactions between environmental changes, forest management, and disturbance agents to support forest resource managers in adaptive management. Empirical data with a comprehensive coverage for modelling the susceptibility of forests and the impact of disturbance agents are rare, thus making probabilistic models, based on expert knowledge, one of the few modelling approaches that are able to handle uncertainties due to the available information. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs are a kind of probabilistic graphical model that has become very popular to practitioners and scientists mainly due to considerations of risk and uncertainties. In this contribution, we present a development methodology to define and parameterize BBNs based on expert elicitation and approximation. We modelled storm and bark beetle disturbances agents, analyzed effects of the development methodology on model structure, and evaluated behavior with stand data from Norway spruce (Picea abies (L. Karst. forests in southern Austria. The high vulnerability of the case study area according to different disturbance agents makes it particularly suitable for testing the BBN model.

Ancient and modern DNA reveal dynamics of domestication and cross-continental dispersal of the dromedary

Science.gov (United States)

Almathen, Faisal; Charruau, Pauline; Mohandesan, Elmira; Mwacharo, Joram M.; Orozco-terWengel, Pablo; Pitt, Daniel; Abdussamad, Abdussamad M.; Uerpmann, Margarethe; Uerpmann, Hans-Peter; De Cupere, Bea; Magee, Peter; Alnaqeeb, Majed A.; Salim, Bashir; Raziq, Abdul; Dessie, Tadelle; Abdelhadi, Omer M.; Banabazi, Mohammad H.; Al-Eknah, Marzook; Walzer, Chris; Faye, Bernard; Hofreiter, Michael; Peters, Joris; Hanotte, Olivier

2016-01-01

Dromedaries have been fundamental to the development of human societies in arid landscapes and for long-distance trade across hostile hot terrains for 3,000 y. Today they continue to be an important livestock resource in marginal agro-ecological zones. However, the history of dromedary domestication and the influence of ancient trading networks on their genetic structure have remained elusive. We combined ancient DNA sequences of wild and early-domesticated dromedary samples from arid regions with nuclear microsatellite and mitochondrial genotype information from 1,083 extant animals collected across the species’ range. We observe little phylogeographic signal in the modern population, indicative of extensive gene flow and virtually affecting all regions except East Africa, where dromedary populations have remained relatively isolated. In agreement with archaeological findings, we identify wild dromedaries from the southeast Arabian Peninsula among the founders of the domestic dromedary gene pool. Approximate Bayesian computations further support the “restocking from the wild” hypothesis, with an initial domestication followed by introgression from individuals from wild, now-extinct populations. Compared with other livestock, which show a long history of gene flow with their wild ancestors, we find a high initial diversity relative to the native distribution of the wild ancestor on the Arabian Peninsula and to the brief coexistence of early-domesticated and wild individuals. This study also demonstrates the potential to retrieve ancient DNA sequences from osseous remains excavated in hot and dry desert environments. PMID:27162355

Bayesian methods for data analysis

CERN Document Server

Carlin, Bradley P.

2009-01-01

Approaches for statistical inference Introduction Motivating Vignettes Defining the Approaches The Bayes-Frequentist Controversy Some Basic Bayesian Models The Bayes approach Introduction Prior Distributions Bayesian Inference Hierarchical Modeling Model Assessment Nonparametric Methods Bayesian computation Introduction Asymptotic Methods Noniterative Monte Carlo Methods Markov Chain Monte Carlo Methods Model criticism and selection Bayesian Modeling Bayesian Robustness Model Assessment Bayes Factors via Marginal Density Estimation Bayes Factors

Précis of bayesian rationality: The probabilistic approach to human reasoning.

Science.gov (United States)

Oaksford, Mike; Chater, Nick

2009-02-01

According to Aristotle, humans are the rational animal. The borderline between rationality and irrationality is fundamental to many aspects of human life including the law, mental health, and language interpretation. But what is it to be rational? One answer, deeply embedded in the Western intellectual tradition since ancient Greece, is that rationality concerns reasoning according to the rules of logic--the formal theory that specifies the inferential connections that hold with certainty between propositions. Piaget viewed logical reasoning as defining the end-point of cognitive development; and contemporary psychology of reasoning has focussed on comparing human reasoning against logical standards. Bayesian Rationality argues that rationality is defined instead by the ability to reason about uncertainty. Although people are typically poor at numerical reasoning about probability, human thought is sensitive to subtle patterns of qualitative Bayesian, probabilistic reasoning. In Chapters 1-4 of Bayesian Rationality (Oaksford & Chater 2007), the case is made that cognition in general, and human everyday reasoning in particular, is best viewed as solving probabilistic, rather than logical, inference problems. In Chapters 5-7 the psychology of "deductive" reasoning is tackled head-on: It is argued that purportedly "logical" reasoning problems, revealing apparently irrational behaviour, are better understood from a probabilistic point of view. Data from conditional reasoning, Wason's selection task, and syllogistic inference are captured by recasting these problems probabilistically. The probabilistic approach makes a variety of novel predictions which have been experimentally confirmed. The book considers the implications of this work, and the wider "probabilistic turn" in cognitive science and artificial intelligence, for understanding human rationality.

Fungus-Growing Termites Originated in African Rain Forest

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Aanen, Duur Kornelis; Eggleton, Paul

2005-01-01

are consumed (cf. [ [1] and [2] ]). Fungus-growing termites are found throughout the Old World tropics, in rain forests and savannas, but are ecologically dominant in savannas [ 3 ]. Here, we reconstruct the ancestral habitat and geographical origin of fungus-growing termites. We used a statistical model...... of habitat switching [ 4 ] repeated over all phylogenetic trees sampled in a Bayesian analysis of molecular data [ 5 ]. Our reconstructions provide strong evidence that termite agriculture originated in African rain forest and that the main radiation leading to the extant genera occurred there. Because...

LiDAR, geophysical and field surveys at Ancient Epomanduodurum site and its surrounding country (Doubs, Eastern France)

Science.gov (United States)

Laplaige, Clement; Bossuet, Gilles; Thivet, Matthieu

2010-05-01

Integrated geophysical studies were carried out over several years, at Mandeure-Mathay (Franche-Comté Region, Eastern France) for the archaeological evaluation of ancient Epomanduodurum. The site is of major scientific interest to understand the territorial structure of earlier agglomerations in Eastern Gaul at the end of the Iron Age and during the Roman period. As regards its size, urban equipment, monuments and function, the ancient town is considered rating second behind the civitas capital of Sequani, Besançon-Vesontio. It is located in the Doubs valley, where the plain of Alsace opens into the marches of Burgundy, in a traffic zone between the Vosges and the Jura. This location allows transit between the Rhône valley and the Rhein plain, through the Saône and Doubs valleys. This geographical situation was a significant factor in the creation of the late Iron Age settlement, later to turn into a major Gallo-roman town. The whole site of the Ancient town includes urban centre and two artisan suburbs. The buried ruins stretch on more than 500 hectares outside and inside a meander of the Doubs River. From the beginning of the survey, in 2001, high resolution and non invasive geophysical methods (magnetic mapping and Automatic Restivity Profiling (ARP) were performed on large scale, both on the terrace and in the floodplain). Excavations associated to geophysical prospection allow to produce a general plan of the Gallo roman structures and to reconstruct the settlement evolution. While human occupation on open land is certified by a lot of indications, on the contrary, the forest-covered zones on table-land appear as less documented areas. The explanation is that some of the classic methods (such as aerial reconnaissance and field walking) are less efficient in the archaeological prospection of table-lands and hills, naturally marked by omnipresent forest. In our new research program (LIEPPEC and PCR Mandeure, 2008-2010), it appears necessary to better

Trade-off between light availability and soil fertility determine refugial conditions for the relict light-demanding species in lowland forests

Science.gov (United States)

Kiedrzyński, Marcin; Kurowski, Józef Krzysztof; Kiedrzyńska, Edyta

2017-11-01

Identifying potential refugial habitats in the face of rapid environmental change is a challenge faced by scientists and nature conservation managers. Relict populations and refugial habitats are the model objects in those studies. Based on the example of Actaea europaea from Central Poland, we analyse the habitat factors influencing relict populations of continental, light-demanding species in lowland forests and examine which habitats of studied species corresponding most closely to ancient vegetation. Our results indicate that the current refugial habitats of Actaea europaea include not only communities which are very similar to ancient open forest but also forests with a closed canopy. Although the populations are influenced by nitrogen and light availability, the co-occurrence of these two factors in forest communities is limited by dense canopy formation by hornbeam and beech trees on fertile soils and in more humid conditions. Our findings indicate that the future survival of relict, light-demanding communities in lowland forests requires low-intensity disturbances to be performed in tree-stands, according to techniques, which imitate traditional forests management.

Bayesian benefits with JASP

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Marsman, M.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.

2017-01-01

We illustrate the Bayesian approach to data analysis using the newly developed statistical software program JASP. With JASP, researchers are able to take advantage of the benefits that the Bayesian framework has to offer in terms of parameter estimation and hypothesis testing. The Bayesian

Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS

CERN Document Server

Ntzoufras, Ioannis

2009-01-01

A hands-on introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling using WinBUGS Bayesian Modeling Using WinBUGS provides an easily accessible introduction to the use of WinBUGS programming techniques in a variety of Bayesian modeling settings. The author provides an accessible treatment of the topic, offering readers a smooth introduction to the principles of Bayesian modeling with detailed guidance on the practical implementation of key principles. The book begins with a basic introduction to Bayesian inference and the WinBUGS software and goes on to cover key topics, including: Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms in Bayesian inference Generalized linear models Bayesian hierarchical models Predictive distribution and model checking Bayesian model and variable evaluation Computational notes and screen captures illustrate the use of both WinBUGS as well as R software to apply the discussed techniques. Exercises at the end of each chapter allow readers to test their understanding of the presented concepts and all ...

A comparison of machine learning and Bayesian modelling for molecular serotyping.

Science.gov (United States)

Newton, Richard; Wernisch, Lorenz

2017-08-11

Streptococcus pneumoniae is a human pathogen that is a major cause of infant mortality. Identifying the pneumococcal serotype is an important step in monitoring the impact of vaccines used to protect against disease. Genomic microarrays provide an effective method for molecular serotyping. Previously we developed an empirical Bayesian model for the classification of serotypes from a molecular serotyping array. With only few samples available, a model driven approach was the only option. In the meanwhile, several thousand samples have been made available to us, providing an opportunity to investigate serotype classification by machine learning methods, which could complement the Bayesian model. We compare the performance of the original Bayesian model with two machine learning algorithms: Gradient Boosting Machines and Random Forests. We present our results as an example of a generic strategy whereby a preliminary probabilistic model is complemented or replaced by a machine learning classifier once enough data are available. Despite the availability of thousands of serotyping arrays, a problem encountered when applying machine learning methods is the lack of training data containing mixtures of serotypes; due to the large number of possible combinations. Most of the available training data comprises samples with only a single serotype. To overcome the lack of training data we implemented an iterative analysis, creating artificial training data of serotype mixtures by combining raw data from single serotype arrays. With the enhanced training set the machine learning algorithms out perform the original Bayesian model. However, for serotypes currently lacking sufficient training data the best performing implementation was a combination of the results of the Bayesian Model and the Gradient Boosting Machine. As well as being an effective method for classifying biological data, machine learning can also be used as an efficient method for revealing subtle biological

Bayesian inference for multivariate point processes observed at sparsely distributed times

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rasmussen, Jakob Gulddahl; Møller, Jesper; Aukema, B.H.

We consider statistical and computational aspects of simulation-based Bayesian inference for a multivariate point process which is only observed at sparsely distributed times. For specicity we consider a particular data set which has earlier been analyzed by a discrete time model involving unknown...... normalizing constants. We discuss the advantages and disadvantages of using continuous time processes compared to discrete time processes in the setting of the present paper as well as other spatial-temporal situations. Keywords: Bark beetle, conditional intensity, forest entomology, Markov chain Monte Carlo...

Ancient Greek with Thrasymachus: A Web Site for Learning Ancient Greek.

Science.gov (United States)

Barker, Alison

2001-01-01

Discusses a project that was begun as an attempt by two teachers of Ancient Greek to provide supplementary materials to accompany "Thrasymachus," a first-year textbook for learning ancient Greek. Provides a brief history and description of the project, the format of each chapter, a chronology for completion of materials for each chapter in the…

Bayesian optimization for materials science

CERN Document Server

Packwood, Daniel

2017-01-01

This book provides a short and concise introduction to Bayesian optimization specifically for experimental and computational materials scientists. After explaining the basic idea behind Bayesian optimization and some applications to materials science in Chapter 1, the mathematical theory of Bayesian optimization is outlined in Chapter 2. Finally, Chapter 3 discusses an application of Bayesian optimization to a complicated structure optimization problem in computational surface science. Bayesian optimization is a promising global optimization technique that originates in the field of machine learning and is starting to gain attention in materials science. For the purpose of materials design, Bayesian optimization can be used to predict new materials with novel properties without extensive screening of candidate materials. For the purpose of computational materials science, Bayesian optimization can be incorporated into first-principles calculations to perform efficient, global structure optimizations. While re...

Regeneration of native California oaks in the forest zone [Abstract

Science.gov (United States)

P.M. McDonald

1999-01-01

The two native California oaks in the forest zone of California are California black oak (Quercus kelloggii Newb.) and tanoak (Lithocarpus densiflorus [Hook. and Arn.] Rehd.). Both are ancient species with many adaptations to withstand California's Mediterranean climate, but some weaknesses as well. Both sprout vigorously...

Near Real Time Change-Point detection in Optical and Thermal Infrared Time Series Using Bayesian Inference over the Dry Chaco Forest

Science.gov (United States)

Barraza Bernadas, V.; Grings, F.; Roitberg, E.; Perna, P.; Karszenbaum, H.

2017-12-01

The Dry Chaco region (DCF) has the highest absolute deforestation rates of all Argentinian forests. The most recent report indicates a current deforestation rate of 200,000 Ha year-1. In order to better monitor this process, DCF was chosen to implement an early warning program for illegal deforestation. Although the area is intensively studied using medium resolution imagery (Landsat), the products obtained have a yearly pace and therefore unsuited for an early warning program. In this paper, we evaluated the performance of an online Bayesian change-point detection algorithm for MODIS Enhanced Vegetation Index (EVI) and Land Surface Temperature (LST) datasets. The goal was to to monitor the abrupt changes in vegetation dynamics associated with deforestation events. We tested this model by simulating 16-day EVI and 8-day LST time series with varying amounts of seasonality, noise, length of the time series and by adding abrupt changes with different magnitudes. This model was then tested on real satellite time series available through the Google Earth Engine, over a pilot area in DCF, where deforestation was common in the 2004-2016 period. A comparison with yearly benchmark products based on Landsat images is also presented (REDAF dataset). The results shows the advantages of using an automatic model to detect a changepoint in the time series than using only visual inspection techniques. Simulating time series with varying amounts of seasonality and noise, and by adding abrupt changes at different times and magnitudes, revealed that this model is robust against noise, and is not influenced by changes in amplitude of the seasonal component. Furthermore, the results compared favorably with REDAF dataset (near 65% of agreement). These results show the potential to combine LST and EVI to identify deforestation events. This work is being developed within the frame of the national Forest Law for the protection and sustainable development of Native Forest in Argentina in

Ancient genomics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Der Sarkissian, Clio; Allentoft, Morten Erik; Avila Arcos, Maria del Carmen

2015-01-01

throughput of next generation sequencing platforms and the ability to target short and degraded DNA molecules. Many ancient specimens previously unsuitable for DNA analyses because of extensive degradation can now successfully be used as source materials. Additionally, the analytical power obtained...... by increasing the number of sequence reads to billions effectively means that contamination issues that have haunted aDNA research for decades, particularly in human studies, can now be efficiently and confidently quantified. At present, whole genomes have been sequenced from ancient anatomically modern humans...

Net aboveground biomass declines of four major forest types with forest ageing and climate change in western Canada's boreal forests.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Han Y H; Luo, Yong

2015-10-01

Biomass change of the world's forests is critical to the global carbon cycle. Despite storing nearly half of global forest carbon, the boreal biome of diverse forest types and ages is a poorly understood component of the carbon cycle. Using data from 871 permanent plots in the western boreal forest of Canada, we examined net annual aboveground biomass change (ΔAGB) of four major forest types between 1958 and 2011. We found that ΔAGB was higher for deciduous broadleaf (DEC) (1.44 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) , 95% Bayesian confidence interval (CI), 1.22-1.68) and early-successional coniferous forests (ESC) (1.42, CI, 1.30-1.56) than mixed forests (MIX) (0.80, CI, 0.50-1.11) and late-successional coniferous (LSC) forests (0.62, CI, 0.39-0.88). ΔAGB declined with forest age as well as calendar year. After accounting for the effects of forest age, ΔAGB declined by 0.035, 0.021, 0.032 and 0.069 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) per calendar year in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. The ΔAGB declines resulted from increased tree mortality and reduced growth in all forest types except DEC, in which a large biomass loss from mortality was accompanied with a small increase in growth. With every degree of annual temperature increase, ΔAGB decreased by 1.00, 0.20, 0.55 and 1.07 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) in DEC, ESC, MIX and LSC forests, respectively. With every cm decrease of annual climatic moisture availability, ΔAGB decreased 0.030, 0.045 and 0.17 Mg ha(-1)  year(-1) in ESC, MIX and LSC forests, but changed little in DEC forests. Our results suggest that persistent warming and decreasing water availability have profound negative effects on forest biomass in the boreal forests of western Canada. Furthermore, our results indicate that forest responses to climate change are strongly dependent on forest composition with late-successional coniferous forests being most vulnerable to climate changes in terms of aboveground biomass. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Ancient ancestry of KFDV and AHFV revealed by complete genome analyses of viruses isolated from ticks and mammalian hosts.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kimberly A Dodd

2011-10-01

Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Alkhurma hemorrhagic fever virus (AHFV and Kyasanur forest disease virus (KFDV cause significant human disease and mortality in Saudi Arabia and India, respectively. Despite their distinct geographic ranges, AHFV and KFDV share a remarkably high sequence identity. Given its emergence decades after KFDV, AHFV has since been considered a variant of KFDV and thought to have arisen from an introduction of KFDV to Saudi Arabia from India. To gain a better understanding of the evolutionary history of AHFV and KFDV, we analyzed the full length genomes of 16 AHFV and 3 KFDV isolates. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Viral genomes were sequenced and compared to two AHFV sequences available in GenBank. Sequence analyses revealed higher genetic diversity within AHFVs isolated from ticks than human AHFV isolates. A Bayesian coalescent phylogenetic analysis demonstrated an ancient divergence of AHFV and KFDV of approximately 700 years ago. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The high sequence diversity within tick populations and the presence of competent tick vectors in the surrounding regions, coupled with the recent identification of AHFV in Egypt, indicate possible viral range expansion or a larger geographic range than previously thought. The divergence of AHFV from KFDV nearly 700 years ago suggests other AHFV/KFDV-like viruses might exist in the regions between Saudi Arabia and India. Given the human morbidity and mortality associated with these viruses, these results emphasize the importance of more focused study of these significant public health threats.

Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Bolstad, William M

2011-01-01

A hands-on introduction to computational statistics from a Bayesian point of view Providing a solid grounding in statistics while uniquely covering the topics from a Bayesian perspective, Understanding Computational Bayesian Statistics successfully guides readers through this new, cutting-edge approach. With its hands-on treatment of the topic, the book shows how samples can be drawn from the posterior distribution when the formula giving its shape is all that is known, and how Bayesian inferences can be based on these samples from the posterior. These ideas are illustrated on common statistic

Bayesian statistics an introduction

CERN Document Server

Lee, Peter M

2012-01-01

Bayesian Statistics is the school of thought that combines prior beliefs with the likelihood of a hypothesis to arrive at posterior beliefs. The first edition of Peter Lee’s book appeared in 1989, but the subject has moved ever onwards, with increasing emphasis on Monte Carlo based techniques. This new fourth edition looks at recent techniques such as variational methods, Bayesian importance sampling, approximate Bayesian computation and Reversible Jump Markov Chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC), providing a concise account of the way in which the Bayesian approach to statistics develops as wel

A Bayesian approach to estimate sensible and latent heat over vegetated land surface

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C. van der Tol

2009-06-01

Full Text Available Sensible and latent heat fluxes are often calculated from bulk transfer equations combined with the energy balance. For spatial estimates of these fluxes, a combination of remotely sensed and standard meteorological data from weather stations is used. The success of this approach depends on the accuracy of the input data and on the accuracy of two variables in particular: aerodynamic and surface conductance. This paper presents a Bayesian approach to improve estimates of sensible and latent heat fluxes by using a priori estimates of aerodynamic and surface conductance alongside remote measurements of surface temperature. The method is validated for time series of half-hourly measurements in a fully grown maize field, a vineyard and a forest. It is shown that the Bayesian approach yields more accurate estimates of sensible and latent heat flux than traditional methods.

Tamil merchant in ancient Mesopotamia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Malliya Gounder Palanichamy

Full Text Available Recent analyses of ancient Mesopotamian mitochondrial genomes have suggested a genetic link between the Indian subcontinent and Mesopotamian civilization. There is no consensus on the origin of the ancient Mesopotamians. They may be descendants of migrants, who founded regional Mesopotamian groups like that of Terqa or they may be merchants who were involved in trans Mesopotamia trade. To identify the Indian source population showing linkage to the ancient Mesopotamians, we screened a total of 15,751 mitochondrial DNAs (11,432 from the literature and 4,319 from this study representing all major populations of India. Our results although suggest that south India (Tamil Nadu and northeast India served as the source of the ancient Mesopotamian mtDNA gene pool, mtDNA of these ancient Mesopotamians probably contributed by Tamil merchants who were involved in the Indo-Roman trade.

Ancient DNA reveals genetic connections between early Di-Qiang and Han Chinese.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Jiawei; Zeng, Wen; Zhang, Ye; Ko, Albert Min-Shan; Li, Chunxiang; Zhu, Hong; Fu, Qiaomei; Zhou, Hui

2017-12-04

Ancient Di-Qiang people once resided in the Ganqing region of China, adjacent to the Central Plain area from where Han Chinese originated. While gene flow between the Di-Qiang and Han Chinese has been proposed, there is no evidence to support this view. Here we analyzed the human remains from an early Di-Qiang site (Mogou site dated ~4000 years old) and compared them to other ancient DNA across China, including an early Han-related site (Hengbei site dated ~3000 years old) to establish the underlying genetic relationship between the Di-Qiang and ancestors of Han Chinese. We found Mogou mtDNA haplogroups were highly diverse, comprising 14 haplogroups: A, B, C, D (D*, D4, D5), F, G, M7, M8, M10, M13, M25, N*, N9a, and Z. In contrast, Mogou males were all Y-DNA haplogroup O3a2/P201; specifically one male was further assigned to O3a2c1a/M117 using targeted unique regions on the non-recombining region of the Y-chromosome. We compared Mogou to 7 other ancient and 38 modern Chinese groups, in a total of 1793 individuals, and found that Mogou shared close genetic distances with Taojiazhai (a more recent Di-Qiang population), Hengbei, and Northern Han. We modeled their interactions using Approximate Bayesian Computation, and support was given to a potential admixture of ~13-18% between the Mogou and Northern Han around 3300-3800 years ago. Mogou harbors the earliest genetically identifiable Di-Qiang, ancestral to the Taojiazhai, and up to ~33% paternal and ~70% of its maternal haplogroups could be found in present-day Northern Han Chinese.

Bayesian networks with examples in R

CERN Document Server

Scutari, Marco

2014-01-01

Introduction. The Discrete Case: Multinomial Bayesian Networks. The Continuous Case: Gaussian Bayesian Networks. More Complex Cases. Theory and Algorithms for Bayesian Networks. Real-World Applications of Bayesian Networks. Appendices. Bibliography.

Genetic Patterns of Myrceugenia correifolia, a Rare Species of Fog-Dependent Forests of Mediterranean Chile: Is It a Climatic Relict?

Science.gov (United States)

Pérez, Fernanda; Hinojosa, Luis F; Peralta, Gioconda; Montenegro, Paz; Irarrázabal, Carla; Cossio, Michel

2017-01-01

Rare species frequently occur in areas with microclimatic conditions that are atypical for their regions, but that were more common in the past, and that probably have operated as climatic refugia for a long time. Myrceugenia correifolia is a rare arboreal species that grows in deep canyons and hilltops of the Coast Range of north-central Chile between 30° and 35°S. In the northern edge of its distribution M. correifolia grows in small patches of fog-dependent forest surrounding by xeric vegetation. These forest formations are thought to be remnants of an ancient and continuous rainforest that according to some authors became fragmented during aridization of the Neogene (Neogene relict) and to others during warm-dry cycles of the Pleistocene (glacial relicts). Here we asked whether the northernmost populations of M. correifolia are Neogene relicts, glacial relicts, or the result of a recent northward colonization. To answer this question we examined genetic diversity and population divergence of M. correifolia using microsatellite markers, tested various competing population history scenarios with an approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) method, and complemented these data with ecological niche modeling (ENM). We detected three genetic clusters with a distinctive latitudinal pattern (north, center, and south) and high levels of differentiation ( F ST = 0.36). Demographic inference supported an admixture event 31 kya between two populations that diverged from an ancient population 139 kya. The admixture time coincides with the beginning of a period of wet conditions in north-central Chile that extended from 33 to 19 kya and was preceded by dry and cold conditions. These results suggest that increased precipitation during glacial periods triggered northward expansion of the range of M. correifolia , with subsequent admixture between populations that remained separated during interglacial periods. Accordingly, ENM models showed that suitable habitats for M

Balancing Acts Between Ancient and Modern Cities: The Ancient Greek Cities Project of C. A. Doxiadis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mantha Zarmakoupi

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the inception and development of the Ancient Greek Cities (AGC research project (1963–77 of Constantinos A. Doxiadis and addresses the novelty of its methodological approach to the study of classical urbanism. With the AGC project, Doxiadis launched a comprehensive study of the ancient Greek built environment to provide an overview of the factors involved in its shaping. The project produced 24 published volumes — the first two laying out the historical and methodological parameters of the ensuing 22 monographs with case studies — as well as 12 unpublished manuscripts, and through international conferences initiated a wider dialogue on ancient cities beyond the classical Greek world. It was the first interdisciplinary study that attempted to tackle the environmental factors, together with the social and economic ones, underpinning the creation, development and operation of ancient Greek cities. Doxiadis’s innovative approach to the analysis of the ancient city was indebted to his practice as an architect and town planner and was informed by his theory of Ekistics. His purpose was to identify the urban planning principles of ancient Greek settlements in order to employ them in his projects. This paper examines the concept and methodology of the AGC project as well as the ways in which Doxiadis used the study of ancient cities in relation to his contemporary urban/architectural agendas, and explains this important moment in the historiography of ancient Greek urbanism.

Comparison of small-footprint discrete return and full waveform airborne lidar data for estimating multiple forest variables

OpenAIRE

Sumnall, Matthew J.; Hill, Ross A.; Hinsley, Shelley A.

2016-01-01

The quantification of forest ecosystems is important for a variety of purposes, including the assessment of wildlife habitat, nutrient cycles, timber yield and fire propagation. This research assesses the estimation of forest structure, composition and deadwood variables from small-footprint airborne lidar data, both discrete return (DR) and full waveform (FW), acquired under leaf-on and leaf-off conditions. The field site, in the New Forest, UK, includes managed plantation and ancient, se...

Unveiling an ancient biological invasion: molecular analysis of an old European alien, the crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sbordoni Valerio

2009-05-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Biological invasions can be considered one of the main threats to biodiversity, and the recognition of common ecological and evolutionary features among invaders can help developing a predictive framework to control further invasions. In particular, the analysis of successful invasive species and of their autochthonous source populations by means of genetic, phylogeographic and demographic tools can provide novel insights into the study of biological invasion patterns. Today, long-term dynamics of biological invasions are still poorly understood and need further investigations. Moreover, distribution and molecular data on native populations could contribute to the recognition of common evolutionary features of successful aliens. Results We analyzed 2,195 mitochondrial base pairs, including Cytochrome b, Control Region and rRNA 12S, in 161 Italian and 27 African specimens and assessed the ancient invasive origin of Italian crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata populations from Tunisia. Molecular coalescent-based Bayesian analyses proposed the Roman Age as a putative timeframe of introduction and suggested a retention of genetic diversity during the early phases of colonization. The characterization of the native African genetic background revealed the existence of two differentiated clades: a Mediterranean group and a Sub-Saharan one. Both standard population genetic and advanced molecular demography tools (Bayesian Skyline Plot did not evidence a clear genetic signature of the expected increase in population size after introduction. Along with the genetic diversity retention during the bottlenecked steps of introduction, this finding could be better described by hypothesizing a multi-invasion event. Conclusion Evidences of the ancient anthropogenic invasive origin of the Italian Hystrix cristata populations were clearly shown and the native African genetic background was preliminary described. A more complex pattern than a

Unveiling an ancient biological invasion: molecular analysis of an old European alien, the crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata).

Science.gov (United States)

Trucchi, Emiliano; Sbordoni, Valerio

2009-05-18

Biological invasions can be considered one of the main threats to biodiversity, and the recognition of common ecological and evolutionary features among invaders can help developing a predictive framework to control further invasions. In particular, the analysis of successful invasive species and of their autochthonous source populations by means of genetic, phylogeographic and demographic tools can provide novel insights into the study of biological invasion patterns. Today, long-term dynamics of biological invasions are still poorly understood and need further investigations. Moreover, distribution and molecular data on native populations could contribute to the recognition of common evolutionary features of successful aliens. We analyzed 2,195 mitochondrial base pairs, including Cytochrome b, Control Region and rRNA 12S, in 161 Italian and 27 African specimens and assessed the ancient invasive origin of Italian crested porcupine (Hystrix cristata) populations from Tunisia. Molecular coalescent-based Bayesian analyses proposed the Roman Age as a putative timeframe of introduction and suggested a retention of genetic diversity during the early phases of colonization. The characterization of the native African genetic background revealed the existence of two differentiated clades: a Mediterranean group and a Sub-Saharan one. Both standard population genetic and advanced molecular demography tools (Bayesian Skyline Plot) did not evidence a clear genetic signature of the expected increase in population size after introduction. Along with the genetic diversity retention during the bottlenecked steps of introduction, this finding could be better described by hypothesizing a multi-invasion event. Evidences of the ancient anthropogenic invasive origin of the Italian Hystrix cristata populations were clearly shown and the native African genetic background was preliminary described. A more complex pattern than a simple demographic exponential growth from a single propagule

Mapping The Ancient Maya Landscape From Space

Science.gov (United States)

Sever, Tom; Arnold, James E. (Technical Monitor)

2002-01-01

The Peten region of northern Guatemala is one of the last places on earth where major archeological sites remain to be discovered. It was in this region that the Maya civilization began, flourished, and abruptly disappeared. Remote sensing technology is helping to locate and map ancient Maya sites that are threatened today by accelerating deforestation and looting. Thematic Mapper and IKONOS satellite and airborne Star3-I radar data, combined with Global Positioning System (GPS) technology, are successfully detecting ancient Maya features such as cities, roadways, canals, and water reservoirs. Satellite imagery is also being used to map the bajos, which are seasonally flooded swamps that cover over 40% of the land surface. The use of bajos for farming has been a source of debate within the professional community for many years. But the recent detection and verification of cultural features within the bajo system by our research team are providing conclusive evidence that the ancient Maya had adapted well to wetland environments from the earliest times and utilized them until the time of the Maya collapse. The use of the bajos for farming is also an important resource for the future of the current inhabitants who are experiencing rapid population growth. Remote sensing imagery is also demonstrating that in the Preclassic period (600 BC- AD 250), the Maya had already achieved a high organizational level as evidenced by the construction of massive temples and an elaborate inter-connecting roadway system. Although they experienced several setbacks such as droughts and hurricanes, the Maya nevertheless managed the delicate forest ecosystem successfully for several centuries. However, around AD 800, something happened to the Maya to cause their rapid decline and eventual disappearance from the region. The evidence indicates that at this time there was increased climatic dryness, extensive deforestation, overpopulation, and widespread warfare. This raises a question that

Hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for multispecies conservation planning and monitoring.

Science.gov (United States)

Carroll, Carlos; Johnson, Devin S; Dunk, Jeffrey R; Zielinski, William J

2010-12-01

Biologists who develop and apply habitat models are often familiar with the statistical challenges posed by their data's spatial structure but are unsure of whether the use of complex spatial models will increase the utility of model results in planning. We compared the relative performance of nonspatial and hierarchical Bayesian spatial models for three vertebrate and invertebrate taxa of conservation concern (Church's sideband snails [Monadenia churchi], red tree voles [Arborimus longicaudus], and Pacific fishers [Martes pennanti pacifica]) that provide examples of a range of distributional extents and dispersal abilities. We used presence-absence data derived from regional monitoring programs to develop models with both landscape and site-level environmental covariates. We used Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms and a conditional autoregressive or intrinsic conditional autoregressive model framework to fit spatial models. The fit of Bayesian spatial models was between 35 and 55% better than the fit of nonspatial analogue models. Bayesian spatial models outperformed analogous models developed with maximum entropy (Maxent) methods. Although the best spatial and nonspatial models included similar environmental variables, spatial models provided estimates of residual spatial effects that suggested how ecological processes might structure distribution patterns. Spatial models built from presence-absence data improved fit most for localized endemic species with ranges constrained by poorly known biogeographic factors and for widely distributed species suspected to be strongly affected by unmeasured environmental variables or population processes. By treating spatial effects as a variable of interest rather than a nuisance, hierarchical Bayesian spatial models, especially when they are based on a common broad-scale spatial lattice (here the national Forest Inventory and Analysis grid of 24 km(2) hexagons), can increase the relevance of habitat models to multispecies

A Bayesian inverse modeling approach to estimate soil hydraulic properties of a toposequence in southeastern Amazonia.

Science.gov (United States)

Stucchi Boschi, Raquel; Qin, Mingming; Gimenez, Daniel; Cooper, Miguel

2016-04-01

Modeling is an important tool for better understanding and assessing land use impacts on landscape processes. A key point for environmental modeling is the knowledge of soil hydraulic properties. However, direct determination of soil hydraulic properties is difficult and costly, particularly in vast and remote regions such as one constituting the Amazon Biome. One way to overcome this problem is to extrapolate accurately estimated data to pedologically similar sites. The van Genuchten (VG) parametric equation is the most commonly used for modeling SWRC. The use of a Bayesian approach in combination with the Markov chain Monte Carlo to estimate the VG parameters has several advantages compared to the widely used global optimization techniques. The Bayesian approach provides posterior distributions of parameters that are independent from the initial values and allow for uncertainty analyses. The main objectives of this study were: i) to estimate hydraulic parameters from data of pasture and forest sites by the Bayesian inverse modeling approach; and ii) to investigate the extrapolation of the estimated VG parameters to a nearby toposequence with pedologically similar soils to those used for its estimate. The parameters were estimated from volumetric water content and tension observations obtained after rainfall events during a 207-day period from pasture and forest sites located in the southeastern Amazon region. These data were used to run HYDRUS-1D under a Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) scheme 10,000 times, and only the last 2,500 times were used to calculate the posterior distributions of each hydraulic parameter along with 95% confidence intervals (CI) of volumetric water content and tension time series. Then, the posterior distributions were used to generate hydraulic parameters for two nearby toposequences composed by six soil profiles, three are under forest and three are under pasture. The parameters of the nearby site were accepted when

Bayesian Mediation Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Yuan, Ying; MacKinnon, David P.

2009-01-01

In this article, we propose Bayesian analysis of mediation effects. Compared with conventional frequentist mediation analysis, the Bayesian approach has several advantages. First, it allows researchers to incorporate prior information into the mediation analysis, thus potentially improving the efficiency of estimates. Second, under the Bayesian…

Ancient and modern environmental DNA

Science.gov (United States)

Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Overballe-Petersen, Søren; Ermini, Luca; Sarkissian, Clio Der; Haile, James; Hellstrom, Micaela; Spens, Johan; Thomsen, Philip Francis; Bohmann, Kristine; Cappellini, Enrico; Schnell, Ida Bærholm; Wales, Nathan A.; Carøe, Christian; Campos, Paula F.; Schmidt, Astrid M. Z.; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.; Hansen, Anders J.; Orlando, Ludovic; Willerslev, Eske

2015-01-01

DNA obtained from environmental samples such as sediments, ice or water (environmental DNA, eDNA), represents an important source of information on past and present biodiversity. It has revealed an ancient forest in Greenland, extended by several thousand years the survival dates for mainland woolly mammoth in Alaska, and pushed back the dates for spruce survival in Scandinavian ice-free refugia during the last glaciation. More recently, eDNA was used to uncover the past 50 000 years of vegetation history in the Arctic, revealing massive vegetation turnover at the Pleistocene/Holocene transition, with implications for the extinction of megafauna. Furthermore, eDNA can reflect the biodiversity of extant flora and fauna, both qualitatively and quantitatively, allowing detection of rare species. As such, trace studies of plant and vertebrate DNA in the environment have revolutionized our knowledge of biogeography. However, the approach remains marred by biases related to DNA behaviour in environmental settings, incomplete reference databases and false positive results due to contamination. We provide a review of the field. PMID:25487334

A guide to ancient protein studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hendy, Jessica; Welker, Frido; Demarchi, Beatrice

2018-01-01

Palaeoproteomics is an emerging neologism used to describe the application of mass spectrometry-based approaches to the study of ancient proteomes. As with palaeogenomics (the study of ancient DNA), it intersects evolutionary biology, archaeology and anthropology, with applications ranging from....... Additionally, in contrast to the ancient DNA community, no consolidated guidelines have been proposed by which researchers, reviewers and editors can evaluate palaeoproteomics data, in part due to the novelty of the field. Here we present a series of precautions and standards for ancient protein research...

Aiding the Interpretation of Ancient Documents

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Roued-Cunliffe, Henriette

How can Decision Support System (DSS) software aid the interpretation process involved in the reading of ancient documents? This paper discusses the development of a DSS prototype for the reading of ancient texts. In this context the term ‘ancient documents’ is used to describe mainly Greek...... tool it is important first to comprehend the interpretation process involved in reading ancient documents. This is not a linear process but rather a recursive process where the scholar moves between different levels of reading, such as ‘understanding the meaning of a character’ or ‘understanding...

Medicine in Ancient Assur

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Arbøll, Troels Pank

This dissertation is a microhistorical study of a single individual named Kiṣir-Aššur who practiced medicine in the ancient city of Assur (modern northern Iraq) in the 7th century BCE. The study provides the first detailed analysis of one healer’s education and practice in ancient Mesopotamia...

The eye and its diseases in Ancient Egypt

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, S. Ry

1997-01-01

Ophthalmology, History of ophthalmology, eyes in the Ancient Egypt, eye disease in Ancient Egypt, porotic hyperostosis, mummification......Ophthalmology, History of ophthalmology, eyes in the Ancient Egypt, eye disease in Ancient Egypt, porotic hyperostosis, mummification...

Ancient Chinese Precedents in China

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Geddis, Robert

1999-01-01

... classics from ancient china. The assumption is that since China's political and military leaders state openly that their strategy is based on traditional Chinese strategic concepts, a study of ancient classics on strategy...

Overcoming deep roots, fast rates, and short internodes to resolve the ancient rapid radiation of eupolypod II ferns.

Science.gov (United States)

Rothfels, Carl J; Larsson, Anders; Kuo, Li-Yaung; Korall, Petra; Chiou, Wen-Liang; Pryer, Kathleen M

2012-05-01

Backbone relationships within the large eupolypod II clade, which includes nearly a third of extant fern species, have resisted elucidation by both molecular and morphological data. Earlier studies suggest that much of the phylogenetic intractability of this group is due to three factors: (i) a long root that reduces apparent levels of support in the ingroup; (ii) long ingroup branches subtended by a series of very short backbone internodes (the "ancient rapid radiation" model); and (iii) significantly heterogeneous lineage-specific rates of substitution. To resolve the eupolypod II phylogeny, with a particular emphasis on the backbone internodes, we assembled a data set of five plastid loci (atpA, atpB, matK, rbcL, and trnG-R) from a sample of 81 accessions selected to capture the deepest divergences in the clade. We then evaluated our phylogenetic hypothesis against potential confounding factors, including those induced by rooting, ancient rapid radiation, rate heterogeneity, and the Bayesian star-tree paradox artifact. While the strong support we inferred for the backbone relationships proved robust to these potential problems, their investigation revealed unexpected model-mediated impacts of outgroup composition, divergent effects of methods for countering the star-tree paradox artifact, and gave no support to concerns about the applicability of the unrooted model to data sets with heterogeneous lineage-specific rates of substitution. This study is among few to investigate these factors with empirical data, and the first to compare the performance of the two primary methods for overcoming the Bayesian star-tree paradox artifact. Among the significant phylogenetic results is the near-complete support along the eupolypod II backbone, the demonstrated paraphyly of Woodsiaceae as currently circumscribed, and the well-supported placement of the enigmatic genera Homalosorus, Diplaziopsis, and Woodsia.

Dwarfs in ancient Egypt.

Science.gov (United States)

Kozma, Chahira

2006-02-15

Ancient Egypt was one of the most advanced and productive civilizations in antiquity, spanning 3000 years before the "Christian" era. Ancient Egyptians built colossal temples and magnificent tombs to honor their gods and religious leaders. Their hieroglyphic language, system of organization, and recording of events give contemporary researchers insights into their daily activities. Based on the record left by their art, the ancient Egyptians documented the presence of dwarfs in almost every facet of life. Due to the hot dry climate and natural and artificial mummification, Egypt is a major source of information on achondroplasia in the old world. The remains of dwarfs are abundant and include complete and partial skeletons. Dwarfs were employed as personal attendants, animal tenders, jewelers, and entertainers. Several high-ranking dwarfs especially from the Old Kingdom (2700-2190 BCE) achieved important status and had lavish burial places close to the pyramids. Their costly tombs in the royal cemeteries and the inscriptions on their statutes indicate their high-ranking position in Egyptian society and their close relation to the king. Some of them were Seneb, Pereniankh, Khnumhotpe, and Djeder. There were at least two dwarf gods, Ptah and Bes. The god Ptah was associated with regeneration and rejuvenation. The god Bes was a protector of sexuality, childbirth, women, and children. He was a favored deity particularly during the Greco-Roman period. His temple was recently excavated in the Baharia oasis in the middle of Egypt. The burial sites and artistic sources provide glimpses of the positions of dwarfs in daily life in ancient Egypt. Dwarfs were accepted in ancient Egypt; their recorded daily activities suggest assimilation into daily life, and their disorder was not shown as a physical handicap. Wisdom writings and moral teachings in ancient Egypt commanded respect for dwarfs and other individuals with disabilities. Copyright (c) 2005 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Bayesian Inference on Gravitational Waves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Asad Ali

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The Bayesian approach is increasingly becoming popular among the astrophysics data analysis communities. However, the Pakistan statistics communities are unaware of this fertile interaction between the two disciplines. Bayesian methods have been in use to address astronomical problems since the very birth of the Bayes probability in eighteenth century. Today the Bayesian methods for the detection and parameter estimation of gravitational waves have solid theoretical grounds with a strong promise for the realistic applications. This article aims to introduce the Pakistan statistics communities to the applications of Bayesian Monte Carlo methods in the analysis of gravitational wave data with an  overview of the Bayesian signal detection and estimation methods and demonstration by a couple of simplified examples.

Bayesian analysis in plant pathology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Carriquiry, A L

2004-09-01

ABSTRACT Bayesian methods are currently much discussed and applied in several disciplines from molecular biology to engineering. Bayesian inference is the process of fitting a probability model to a set of data and summarizing the results via probability distributions on the parameters of the model and unobserved quantities such as predictions for new observations. In this paper, after a short introduction of Bayesian inference, we present the basic features of Bayesian methodology using examples from sequencing genomic fragments and analyzing microarray gene-expressing levels, reconstructing disease maps, and designing experiments.

Ancient Biomolecules and Evolutionary Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Cappellini, Enrico; Prohaska, Ana; Racimo, Fernando

2018-01-01

Over the last decade, studies of ancient biomolecules-particularly ancient DNA, proteins, and lipids-have revolutionized our understanding of evolutionary history. Though initially fraught with many challenges, the field now stands on firm foundations. Researchers now successfully retrieve nucleo...

Basics of Bayesian methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Ghosh, Sujit K

2010-01-01

Bayesian methods are rapidly becoming popular tools for making statistical inference in various fields of science including biology, engineering, finance, and genetics. One of the key aspects of Bayesian inferential method is its logical foundation that provides a coherent framework to utilize not only empirical but also scientific information available to a researcher. Prior knowledge arising from scientific background, expert judgment, or previously collected data is used to build a prior distribution which is then combined with current data via the likelihood function to characterize the current state of knowledge using the so-called posterior distribution. Bayesian methods allow the use of models of complex physical phenomena that were previously too difficult to estimate (e.g., using asymptotic approximations). Bayesian methods offer a means of more fully understanding issues that are central to many practical problems by allowing researchers to build integrated models based on hierarchical conditional distributions that can be estimated even with limited amounts of data. Furthermore, advances in numerical integration methods, particularly those based on Monte Carlo methods, have made it possible to compute the optimal Bayes estimators. However, there is a reasonably wide gap between the background of the empirically trained scientists and the full weight of Bayesian statistical inference. Hence, one of the goals of this chapter is to bridge the gap by offering elementary to advanced concepts that emphasize linkages between standard approaches and full probability modeling via Bayesian methods.

Ancient and Current Chaos Theories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Güngör Gündüz

2006-07-01

Full Text Available Chaos theories developed in the last three decades have made very important contributions to our understanding of dynamical systems and natural phenomena. The meaning of chaos in the current theories and in the past is somewhat different from each other. In this work, the properties of dynamical systems and the evolution of chaotic systems were discussed in terms of the views of ancient philosophers. The meaning of chaos in Anaximenes’ philosophy and its role in the Ancient natural philosophy has been discussed in relation to other natural philosophers such as of Anaximander, Parmenides, Heraclitus, Empedocles, Leucippus (i.e. atomists and Aristotle. In addition, the fundamental concepts of statistical mechanics and the current chaos theories were discussed in relation to the views in Ancient natural philosophy. The roots of the scientific concepts such as randomness, autocatalysis, nonlinear growth, information, pattern, etc. in the Ancient natural philosophy were investigated.

Bayesian computation with R

CERN Document Server

Albert, Jim

2009-01-01

There has been a dramatic growth in the development and application of Bayesian inferential methods. Some of this growth is due to the availability of powerful simulation-based algorithms to summarize posterior distributions. There has been also a growing interest in the use of the system R for statistical analyses. R's open source nature, free availability, and large number of contributor packages have made R the software of choice for many statisticians in education and industry. Bayesian Computation with R introduces Bayesian modeling by the use of computation using the R language. The earl

The Bayesian Score Statistic

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleibergen, F.R.; Kleijn, R.; Paap, R.

2000-01-01

We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative. Unlike

Bayesian methods for proteomic biomarker development

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belinda Hernández

2015-12-01

In this review we provide an introduction to Bayesian inference and demonstrate some of the advantages of using a Bayesian framework. We summarize how Bayesian methods have been used previously in proteomics and other areas of bioinformatics. Finally, we describe some popular and emerging Bayesian models from the statistical literature and provide a worked tutorial including code snippets to show how these methods may be applied for the evaluation of proteomic biomarkers.

Bayesian inference with ecological applications

CERN Document Server

Link, William A

2009-01-01

This text is written to provide a mathematically sound but accessible and engaging introduction to Bayesian inference specifically for environmental scientists, ecologists and wildlife biologists. It emphasizes the power and usefulness of Bayesian methods in an ecological context. The advent of fast personal computers and easily available software has simplified the use of Bayesian and hierarchical models . One obstacle remains for ecologists and wildlife biologists, namely the near absence of Bayesian texts written specifically for them. The book includes many relevant examples, is supported by software and examples on a companion website and will become an essential grounding in this approach for students and research ecologists. Engagingly written text specifically designed to demystify a complex subject Examples drawn from ecology and wildlife research An essential grounding for graduate and research ecologists in the increasingly prevalent Bayesian approach to inference Companion website with analyt...

Current trends in Bayesian methodology with applications

CERN Document Server

Upadhyay, Satyanshu K; Dey, Dipak K; Loganathan, Appaia

2015-01-01

Collecting Bayesian material scattered throughout the literature, Current Trends in Bayesian Methodology with Applications examines the latest methodological and applied aspects of Bayesian statistics. The book covers biostatistics, econometrics, reliability and risk analysis, spatial statistics, image analysis, shape analysis, Bayesian computation, clustering, uncertainty assessment, high-energy astrophysics, neural networking, fuzzy information, objective Bayesian methodologies, empirical Bayes methods, small area estimation, and many more topics.Each chapter is self-contained and focuses on

Radiocarbon dating of ancient Japanese documents

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Oda, H.

2001-01-01

History is a reconstruction of past human activity, evidence of which is remained in the form of documents or relics. For the reconstruction of historic period, the radiocarbon dating of ancient documents provides important information. Although radiocarbon age is converted into calendar age with the calibration curve, the calibrated radiocarbon age is still different from the historical age when the document was written. The difference is known as 'old wood effect' for wooden cultural property. The discrepancy becomes more serious problem for recent sample which requires more accurate age determination. Using Tandetron accelerator mass spectrometer at Nagoya University, we have measured radiocarbon ages of Japanese ancient documents, sutras and printed books written dates of which are clarified from the paleographic standpoint. The purpose is to clarify the relation between calibrated radiocarbon age and historical age of ancient Japanese document by AMS radiocarbon dating. This paper reports 23 radiocarbon ages of ancient Japanese documents, sutras and printed books. The calibrated radiocarbon ages are in good agreement with the corresponding historical ages. It was shown by radiocarbon dating of the ancient documents that Japanese paper has little gap by 'old wood effect'; accordingly, ancient Japanese paper is a suitable sample for radiocarbon dating of recent historic period. (author)

Authenticity in ancient DNA studies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Gilbert, M Thomas P; Willerslev, Eske

2006-01-01

Ancient DNA studies represent a powerful tool that can be used to obtain genetic insights into the past. However, despite the publication of large numbers of apparently successful ancient DNA studies, a number of problems exist with the field that are often ignored. Therefore, questions exist as ...

The History and Practice of Ancient Astronomy

CERN Document Server

Evans, James

1998-01-01

The History and Practice of Ancient Astronomy combines new scholarship with hands-on science to bring readers into direct contact with the work of ancient astronomers. While tracing ideas from ancient Babylon to sixteenth-century Europe, the book places its greatest emphasis on the Greek period, when astronomers developed the geometric and philosophical ideas that have determined the subsequent character of Western astronomy. The author approaches this history through the concrete details of ancient astronomical practice. Carefully organized and generously illustrated, the book can teach reade

An investigation into the ancient abortion laws: comparing ancient Persia with ancient Greece and Rome.

Science.gov (United States)

Yarmohammadi, Hassan; Zargaran, Arman; Vatanpour, Azadeh; Abedini, Ehsan; Adhami, Siamak

2013-01-01

Since the dawn of medicine, medical rights and ethics have always been one of mankind's concerns. In any civilisation, attention paid to medical laws and ethics depends on the progress of human values and the advancement of medical science. The history of various civilisations teaches that each had its own views on medical ethics, but most had something in common. Ancient civilisations such as Greece, Rome, or Assyria did not consider the foetus to be alive and therefore to have human rights. In contrast, ancient Persians valued the foetus as a living person equal to others. Accordingly, they brought laws against abortion, even in cases of sexual abuse. Furthermore, abortion was considered to be a murder and punishments were meted out to the mother, father, and the person performing it.

Do the seasonal forests in northeastern Brazil represent a single floristic unit?

Science.gov (United States)

Rodal, M J N; Barbosa, M R V; Thomas, W W

2008-08-01

Floristic analyses (Principal Component Analysis and Analysis of Group Indicators) at the genus level were employed to characterize and compare seasonal forest formations in northeastern Brazil. The presence--absence of 248 genera of woody plants occurring in 24 floristic surveys was correlated with geomorphology and climatic variables. The analyses were consistent and point to the existence of two floristic groups of seasonal forests in the region, one more closely related to the Atlantic Coastal Forest (mata atlântica) and the other to the xerophytic formations (caatinga) of the region. The driest seasonal forest group experiences more than 8 dry months per year and/or a total annual rainfall of <1000 mm, and is found on the ancient eroded peaks in the semi-arid core and on the western slopes of the Borborema Plateau.

The Ancient Greece's roots of Olimpism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bubka Sergej Nazarovich

2011-10-01

Full Text Available The paper focused on the phenomena of sport in Ancient Greece along with history, traditions, religion, education, culture and art. Economic and political conditions are analysed which promote or hamper development of Olympic Games in Ancient Greece. Exceptional stability of Ancient Olympic games during more than eleven centuries are noted as well as their influence on the life of Greek polices of those days. Hellenistic period needs of individual consideration.

Urology and the scientific method in ancient Egypt.

Science.gov (United States)

Gordetsky, Jennifer; O'Brien, Jeanne

2009-03-01

To examine the practice of urology in ancient Egypt using various sources, including the Edwin Smith and Ebers Papyri. The sources of knowledge of ancient Egyptian medicine include medical papyri, paleopathology, art, and hieroglyphic carvings. A brief overview of the medical system in ancient Egypt was completed, in addition to an examination of the training and specialization of the physician in the ancient world. Urologic diseases treated in ancient Egypt and some of the first documented urologic surgeries are presented. Finally, we studied the role of the physician-priest and the intertwined use of religion and magic in ancient Egyptian medicine. The same medical conditions urologists treat in the office today were methodically documented thousands of years ago. Medical papyri show evidence that the ancient Egyptians practiced medicine using a scientific method based on the clinical observation of disease. This has been exemplified by the Edwin Smith Surgical Papyrus, a collection of surgical cases that gives a diagnosis, treatment, and prognosis for each ailment, and the discovery of medical specialization in ancient Egypt, giving us perhaps the world's first urologists. Intertwined with the scientific method was also the rich mysticism and religion of ancient Egypt, which were integral components of the healing process. We present an overview of the practice of urology in ancient Egypt, in terms of both pharmacologic and surgical intervention, as well as with a look into the religion of medicine practiced at that time.

A Bayesian framework for risk perception

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Erp, H.R.N.

2017-01-01

We present here a Bayesian framework of risk perception. This framework encompasses plausibility judgments, decision making, and question asking. Plausibility judgments are modeled by way of Bayesian probability theory, decision making is modeled by way of a Bayesian decision theory, and relevancy

Bayesian flood forecasting methods: A review

Science.gov (United States)

Han, Shasha; Coulibaly, Paulin

2017-08-01

Over the past few decades, floods have been seen as one of the most common and largely distributed natural disasters in the world. If floods could be accurately forecasted in advance, then their negative impacts could be greatly minimized. It is widely recognized that quantification and reduction of uncertainty associated with the hydrologic forecast is of great importance for flood estimation and rational decision making. Bayesian forecasting system (BFS) offers an ideal theoretic framework for uncertainty quantification that can be developed for probabilistic flood forecasting via any deterministic hydrologic model. It provides suitable theoretical structure, empirically validated models and reasonable analytic-numerical computation method, and can be developed into various Bayesian forecasting approaches. This paper presents a comprehensive review on Bayesian forecasting approaches applied in flood forecasting from 1999 till now. The review starts with an overview of fundamentals of BFS and recent advances in BFS, followed with BFS application in river stage forecasting and real-time flood forecasting, then move to a critical analysis by evaluating advantages and limitations of Bayesian forecasting methods and other predictive uncertainty assessment approaches in flood forecasting, and finally discusses the future research direction in Bayesian flood forecasting. Results show that the Bayesian flood forecasting approach is an effective and advanced way for flood estimation, it considers all sources of uncertainties and produces a predictive distribution of the river stage, river discharge or runoff, thus gives more accurate and reliable flood forecasts. Some emerging Bayesian forecasting methods (e.g. ensemble Bayesian forecasting system, Bayesian multi-model combination) were shown to overcome limitations of single model or fixed model weight and effectively reduce predictive uncertainty. In recent years, various Bayesian flood forecasting approaches have been

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Itter, Malcolm S; Finley, Andrew O; D'Amato, Anthony W; Foster, Jane R; Bradford, John B

2017-06-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics-changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

Variable effects of climate on forest growth in relation to climate extremes, disturbance, and forest dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Itter, Malcolm S.; Finley, Andrew O.; D'Amato, Anthony W.; Foster, Jane R.; Bradford, John B.

2017-01-01

Changes in the frequency, duration, and severity of climate extremes are forecast to occur under global climate change. The impacts of climate extremes on forest productivity and health remain difficult to predict due to potential interactions with disturbance events and forest dynamics—changes in forest stand composition, density, size and age structure over time. Such interactions may lead to non-linear forest growth responses to climate involving thresholds and lag effects. Understanding how forest dynamics influence growth responses to climate is particularly important given stand structure and composition can be modified through management to increase forest resistance and resilience to climate change. To inform such adaptive management, we develop a hierarchical Bayesian state space model in which climate effects on tree growth are allowed to vary over time and in relation to past climate extremes, disturbance events, and forest dynamics. The model is an important step toward integrating disturbance and forest dynamics into predictions of forest growth responses to climate extremes. We apply the model to a dendrochronology data set from forest stands of varying composition, structure, and development stage in northeastern Minnesota that have experienced extreme climate years and forest tent caterpillar defoliation events. Mean forest growth was most sensitive to water balance variables representing climatic water deficit. Forest growth responses to water deficit were partitioned into responses driven by climatic threshold exceedances and interactions with insect defoliation. Forest growth was both resistant and resilient to climate extremes with the majority of forest growth responses occurring after multiple climatic threshold exceedances across seasons and years. Interactions between climate and disturbance were observed in a subset of years with insect defoliation increasing forest growth sensitivity to water availability. Forest growth was particularly

Bayesian analyses of Yemeni mitochondrial genomes suggest multiple migration events with Africa and Western Eurasia.

Science.gov (United States)

Vyas, Deven N; Kitchen, Andrew; Miró-Herrans, Aida T; Pearson, Laurel N; Al-Meeri, Ali; Mulligan, Connie J

2016-03-01

Anatomically, modern humans are thought to have migrated out of Africa ∼60,000 years ago in the first successful global dispersal. This initial migration may have passed through Yemen, a region that has experienced multiple migrations events with Africa and Eurasia throughout human history. We use Bayesian phylogenetics to determine how ancient and recent migrations have shaped Yemeni mitogenomic variation. We sequenced 113 mitogenomes from multiple Yemeni regions with a focus on haplogroups M, N, and L3(xM,N) as these groups have the oldest evolutionary history outside of Africa. We performed Bayesian evolutionary analyses to generate time-measured phylogenies calibrated by Neanderthal and Denisovan mitogenomes in order to determine the age of Yemeni-specific clades. As defined by Yemeni monophyly, Yemeni in situ evolution is limited to the Holocene or latest Pleistocene (ages of clades in subhaplogroups L3b1a1a, L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, N1a1a3, and N1a3 range from 2 to 14 kya) and is often situated within broader Horn of Africa/southern Arabia in situ evolution (L3h2, L3x1, M1a1f, M1a5, and N1a1a3 ages range from 7 to 29 kya). Five subhaplogroups show no monophyly and are candidates for Holocene migration into Yemen (L0a2a2a, L3d1a1a, L3i2, M1a1b, and N1b1a). Yemeni mitogenomes are largely the product of Holocene migration, and subsequent in situ evolution, from Africa and western Eurasia. However, we hypothesize that recent population movements may obscure the genetic signature of more ancient migrations. Additional research, e.g., analyses of Yemeni nuclear genetic data, is needed to better reconstruct the complex population and migration histories associated with Out of Africa. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Topics in Bayesian statistics and maximum entropy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mutihac, R.; Cicuttin, A.; Cerdeira, A.; Stanciulescu, C.

1998-12-01

Notions of Bayesian decision theory and maximum entropy methods are reviewed with particular emphasis on probabilistic inference and Bayesian modeling. The axiomatic approach is considered as the best justification of Bayesian analysis and maximum entropy principle applied in natural sciences. Particular emphasis is put on solving the inverse problem in digital image restoration and Bayesian modeling of neural networks. Further topics addressed briefly include language modeling, neutron scattering, multiuser detection and channel equalization in digital communications, genetic information, and Bayesian court decision-making. (author)

Book review: Bayesian analysis for population ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Link, William A.

2011-01-01

Brian Dennis described the field of ecology as “fertile, uncolonized ground for Bayesian ideas.” He continued: “The Bayesian propagule has arrived at the shore. Ecologists need to think long and hard about the consequences of a Bayesian ecology. The Bayesian outlook is a successful competitor, but is it a weed? I think so.” (Dennis 2004)

Science and Library in the Ancient Age

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hasan Sacit Keseroğlu

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Science assumes its contemporary identity as a result of the stages of magic, religion and reason. The religious stage starts with the invention of writing and this stage leaves its place to reason with Thales in Ancient Greece. Knowledge eludes from religious beliefs. Ways to reach accurate, reliable and realistic knowledge are sought, along with the answer for what knowledge is. Therefore, beginning of the science is taken into consideration together with science and philosophy. The purpose of this study is to approach knowledge and science of the ancient age in Mesopotamia, Egypt and Ancient Greece in general terms and to determine the relationship between the knowledge produced in those places and libraries established. The hypothesis has been determined as “Egypt and Mesopotamia at the starting point of the history of science and science, and libraries in Ancient Greece have developed parallelly to each other.” The scope of the study has been limited to Mesopotamia, Egypt and Ancient Greece; and Ancient Greece has been explained, with descriptive method, in the frame of the topics of Ionia, Athens, Hellenistic Period and Rome. Many archives and libraries have been established in the ancient age. The difference between an archive and a library has been mentioned first, and then, various libraries have been introduced such as Nineveh in Mesopotamia, Alexandria in Ancient Greece and many others in Egypt. It has been clearly distinguished that there had been a very tight relationship between knowledge production and library, especially with the Library of Alexandria.

Paleo-Environmental Reconstruction Using Ancient DNA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Mikkel Winther

The aim of this thesis has been to investigate and expand the methodology and applicability for using ancient DNA deposited in lake sediments to detect and determine its genetic sources for paleo-environmental reconstruction. The aim was furthermore to put this tool into an applicable context...... solving other scientifically interesting questions. Still in its childhood, ancient environmental DNA research has a large potential for still developing, improving and discovering its possibilities and limitations in different environments and for identifying various organisms, both in terms...... research on ancient and modern environmental DNA (Paper 1), secondly by setting up a comparative study (Paper 2) to investigate how an ancient plant DNA (mini)-barcode can reflect other traditional methods (e.g. pollen and macrofossils) for reconstructing floristic history. In prolongation of the results...

AN INTERESTING CASE OF ANCIENT SCHWANNOMA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Binu

2015-01-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION : Schwannoma is a common benign tumour of nerve sheath. Degenerating type of schwannoma is called ancient schwannoma. Ancient schwannomas of scalp are rare and are often misdiagnosed as sebaceous cyst or dermoid cyst. CASE REPORT : We present a thirty two year old male presented with scalp swel ling of eight years duration. X - ray showed no intracranial extension. He underwent excision of the tumour and histopathology was reported as ancient schwannoma. DISCUSSION : Histopathologically , ancient schwannomas charecterised by cellular Antoni type A ar eas and less cellular Antoni type - B areas. 9 th , 7 th , 11 th , 5 th and 4 th cranial nerves are often affected and may be associated with multiple neuro fibramatosis (Von - Recklinghausen’s disease. Impact : Case is presented for its rarity and possible pre - operative misdiagnosis

On Ancient Babylonian Algebra and Geometry

Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

ber system prevalent during the ancient Mesopotamian civilization. In this article, we study the ... civilization provides a better insight into the thought processes of the ancient Babylonian mathematicians. In this context, consider the following ...

Behavior Space Design and Expression by the Theories and Methods of Urban Design—The Yan Dao ancient town of design practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chen Wei

2015-01-01

Full Text Available In recent years, the ancient town of update and development has become a new hot spot, the study of old town renewal of concern is gradually warming. And again there are a lot of space in the middle of the old town renewal design and traditional style, space activities and use the contradiction between population, which becomes a problem urgently to be solved in design stage. The purpose of this study was to explore old town design space and behavior, traditional and modern conflict resolution methods, and to present the town development and design with a design concept. This paper’ uses three theories of urban design (The relationship between figure and ground, Contact theory and Place theory as a real-time monitoring, assessment, comparison of methods, to study Yan Dao Ancient Town, and the space for analysis. In the research, this paper based on the design theory of the three major city as a starting point, detailedly describes the different types in a certain area of difference in the behavior and the properties of space, and the ancient town of Hubei Shennongjia forest region salt path planning and design practice, the ancient town of updating the connotation of the historical context and space behavior of connection. The conclusion of this thesis put forward the method of that based on the space shape of ancient design method of its application in practice.

Ancient Biomolecules and Evolutionary Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Cappellini, Enrico; Prohaska, Ana; Racimo, Fernando; Welker, Frido; Pedersen, Mikkel Winther; Allentoft, Morten E; de Barros Damgaard, Peter; Gutenbrunner, Petra; Dunne, Julie; Hammann, Simon; Roffet-Salque, Mélanie; Ilardo, Melissa; Moreno-Mayar, J Víctor; Wang, Yucheng; Sikora, Martin; Vinner, Lasse; Cox, Jürgen; Evershed, Richard P; Willerslev, Eske

2018-04-25

Over the last decade, studies of ancient biomolecules-particularly ancient DNA, proteins, and lipids-have revolutionized our understanding of evolutionary history. Though initially fraught with many challenges, the field now stands on firm foundations. Researchers now successfully retrieve nucleotide and amino acid sequences, as well as lipid signatures, from progressively older samples, originating from geographic areas and depositional environments that, until recently, were regarded as hostile to long-term preservation of biomolecules. Sampling frequencies and the spatial and temporal scope of studies have also increased markedly, and with them the size and quality of the data sets generated. This progress has been made possible by continuous technical innovations in analytical methods, enhanced criteria for the selection of ancient samples, integrated experimental methods, and advanced computational approaches. Here, we discuss the history and current state of ancient biomolecule research, its applications to evolutionary inference, and future directions for this young and exciting field. Expected final online publication date for the Annual Review of Biochemistry Volume 87 is June 20, 2018. Please see http://www.annualreviews.org/page/journal/pubdates for revised estimates.

Bayesian Fundamentalism or Enlightenment? On the explanatory status and theoretical contributions of Bayesian models of cognition.

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Matt; Love, Bradley C

2011-08-01

The prominence of Bayesian modeling of cognition has increased recently largely because of mathematical advances in specifying and deriving predictions from complex probabilistic models. Much of this research aims to demonstrate that cognitive behavior can be explained from rational principles alone, without recourse to psychological or neurological processes and representations. We note commonalities between this rational approach and other movements in psychology - namely, Behaviorism and evolutionary psychology - that set aside mechanistic explanations or make use of optimality assumptions. Through these comparisons, we identify a number of challenges that limit the rational program's potential contribution to psychological theory. Specifically, rational Bayesian models are significantly unconstrained, both because they are uninformed by a wide range of process-level data and because their assumptions about the environment are generally not grounded in empirical measurement. The psychological implications of most Bayesian models are also unclear. Bayesian inference itself is conceptually trivial, but strong assumptions are often embedded in the hypothesis sets and the approximation algorithms used to derive model predictions, without a clear delineation between psychological commitments and implementational details. Comparing multiple Bayesian models of the same task is rare, as is the realization that many Bayesian models recapitulate existing (mechanistic level) theories. Despite the expressive power of current Bayesian models, we argue they must be developed in conjunction with mechanistic considerations to offer substantive explanations of cognition. We lay out several means for such an integration, which take into account the representations on which Bayesian inference operates, as well as the algorithms and heuristics that carry it out. We argue this unification will better facilitate lasting contributions to psychological theory, avoiding the pitfalls

Do the seasonal forests in northeastern Brazil represent a single floristic unit?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

MJN. Rodal

Full Text Available Floristic analyses (Principal Component Analysis and Analysis of Group Indicators at the genus level were employed to characterize and compare seasonal forest formations in northeastern Brazil. The presence - absence of 248 genera of woody plants occurring in 24 floristic surveys was correlated with geomorphology and climatic variables. The analyses were consistent and point to the existence of two floristic groups of seasonal forests in the region, one more closely related to the Atlantic Coastal Forest (mata atlântica and the other to the xerophytic formations (caatinga of the region. The driest seasonal forest group experiences more than 8 dry months per year and/or a total annual rainfall of <1000 mm, and is found on the ancient eroded peaks in the semi-arid core and on the western slopes of the Borborema Plateau.

Trepanation in Ancient China.

Science.gov (United States)

Hobert, Leah; Binello, Emanuela

2017-05-01

Trepanation, the process of making a burr hole in the skull to access the brain, is an ancient form of a primitive craniotomy. There is widespread evidence of contributions made to this practice by ancient civilizations in Europe, Africa, and South America, where archaeologists have unearthed thousands of trepanned skulls dating back to the Neolithic period. Little is known about trepanation in China, and it is commonly believed that the Chinese used only traditional Chinese medicine and nonsurgical methods for treating brain injuries. However, a thorough analysis of the available archeological and literary evidence reveals that trepanation was widely practiced throughout China thousands of years ago. A significant number of trepanned Chinese skulls have been unearthed showing signs of healing and suggesting that patients survived after surgery. Trepanation was likely performed for therapeutic and spiritual reasons. Medical and historical works from Chinese literature contain descriptions of primitive neurosurgical procedures, including stories of surgeons, such as the legendary Hua Tuo, and surgical techniques used for the treatment of brain pathologies. The lack of translation of Chinese reports into the English language and the lack of publications on this topic in the English language may have contributed to the misconception that ancient China was devoid of trepanation. This article summarizes the available evidence attesting to the performance of successful primitive cranial surgery in ancient China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Mechanisms in ancient Chinese books with illustrations

CERN Document Server

Hsiao, Kuo-Hung

2014-01-01

This book presents a unique approach for studying mechanisms and machines with drawings that were depicted unclearly in ancient Chinese books. The historical, cultural and technical backgrounds of the mechanisms are explained, and various mechanisms described and illustrated in ancient books are introduced. By utilizing the idea for the conceptual design of modern mechanisms, all feasible designs of ancient mechanisms with uncertain members and joints that meet the technical standards of the subjects’ time periods are synthesized systematically. Ancient Chinese crossbows (the original crossbow and repeating crossbows), textile mechanisms (silk-reeling mechanism, spinning mechanisms, and looms), and many other artisan's tool mechanisms are used as illustrated examples.  Such an approach provides a logical method for the reconstruction designs of ancient mechanisms with uncertain structures. It also provides an innovative direction for researchers to further identify the original structures of mechanisms...

Endocrinology in ancient Sparta.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsoulogiannis, Ioannis N; Spandidos, Demetrios A

2007-01-01

This article attempts to analyze the crucial link between the plant Agnus castus and human health, particularly hormonal status, with special reference to the needs of the society of ancient Sparta. The ancient Spartans used Agnus both as a cure for infertility and as a remedy to treat battle wounds. These special properties were recognized by the sanctuary of Asclepios Agnita, which was located in Sparta, as well as by medical practitioners in Sparta during the classical, Hellenistic and Roman ages.

3rd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Lanzarone, Ettore; Villalobos, Isadora; Mattei, Alessandra

2017-01-01

This book is a selection of peer-reviewed contributions presented at the third Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting, BAYSM 2016, Florence, Italy, June 19-21. The meeting provided a unique opportunity for young researchers, M.S. students, Ph.D. students, and postdocs dealing with Bayesian statistics to connect with the Bayesian community at large, to exchange ideas, and to network with others working in the same field. The contributions develop and apply Bayesian methods in a variety of fields, ranging from the traditional (e.g., biostatistics and reliability) to the most innovative ones (e.g., big data and networks).

Robust bayesian analysis of an autoregressive model with ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this work, robust Bayesian analysis of the Bayesian estimation of an autoregressive model with exponential innovations is performed. Using a Bayesian robustness methodology, we show that, using a suitable generalized quadratic loss, we obtain optimal Bayesian estimators of the parameters corresponding to the ...

Plug & Play object oriented Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bangsø, Olav; Flores, J.; Jensen, Finn Verner

2003-01-01

been shown to be quite suitable for dynamic domains as well. However, processing object oriented Bayesian networks in practice does not take advantage of their modular structure. Normally the object oriented Bayesian network is transformed into a Bayesian network and, inference is performed...... dynamic domains. The communication needed between instances is achieved by means of a fill-in propagation scheme....

Application of neutron activation analysis in study of ancient ceramics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Guoxia; Zhao Weijuan; Gao Zhengyao; Xie Jianzhong; Huang Zhongxiang; Jia Xiuqin; Han Song

2000-01-01

Trace-elements in ancient ceramics and imitative ancient ceramics were determined by neutron activation analysis (NAA). The NAA data are then analyzed by fuzzy cluster method and the trend cluster diagram is obtained. The raw material sources of ancient ceramics and imitative ancient ceramics are determined. The path for improving quality of imitative ancient ceramics is found

Comparative scaffolding and gap filling of ancient bacterial genomes applied to two ancient Yersinia pestis genomes

Science.gov (United States)

Doerr, Daniel; Chauve, Cedric

2017-01-01

Yersinia pestis is the causative agent of the bubonic plague, a disease responsible for several dramatic historical pandemics. Progress in ancient DNA (aDNA) sequencing rendered possible the sequencing of whole genomes of important human pathogens, including the ancient Y. pestis strains responsible for outbreaks of the bubonic plague in London in the 14th century and in Marseille in the 18th century, among others. However, aDNA sequencing data are still characterized by short reads and non-uniform coverage, so assembling ancient pathogen genomes remains challenging and often prevents a detailed study of genome rearrangements. It has recently been shown that comparative scaffolding approaches can improve the assembly of ancient Y. pestis genomes at a chromosome level. In the present work, we address the last step of genome assembly, the gap-filling stage. We describe an optimization-based method AGapEs (ancestral gap estimation) to fill in inter-contig gaps using a combination of a template obtained from related extant genomes and aDNA reads. We show how this approach can be used to refine comparative scaffolding by selecting contig adjacencies supported by a mix of unassembled aDNA reads and comparative signal. We applied our method to two Y. pestis data sets from the London and Marseilles outbreaks, for which we obtained highly improved genome assemblies for both genomes, comprised of, respectively, five and six scaffolds with 95 % of the assemblies supported by ancient reads. We analysed the genome evolution between both ancient genomes in terms of genome rearrangements, and observed a high level of synteny conservation between these strains. PMID:29114402

The Bayesian New Statistics: Hypothesis testing, estimation, meta-analysis, and power analysis from a Bayesian perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Kruschke, John K; Liddell, Torrin M

2018-02-01

In the practice of data analysis, there is a conceptual distinction between hypothesis testing, on the one hand, and estimation with quantified uncertainty on the other. Among frequentists in psychology, a shift of emphasis from hypothesis testing to estimation has been dubbed "the New Statistics" (Cumming 2014). A second conceptual distinction is between frequentist methods and Bayesian methods. Our main goal in this article is to explain how Bayesian methods achieve the goals of the New Statistics better than frequentist methods. The article reviews frequentist and Bayesian approaches to hypothesis testing and to estimation with confidence or credible intervals. The article also describes Bayesian approaches to meta-analysis, randomized controlled trials, and power analysis.

2nd Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting

CERN Document Server

Bitto, Angela; Kastner, Gregor; Posekany, Alexandra

2015-01-01

The Second Bayesian Young Statisticians Meeting (BAYSM 2014) and the research presented here facilitate connections among researchers using Bayesian Statistics by providing a forum for the development and exchange of ideas. WU Vienna University of Business and Economics hosted BAYSM 2014 from September 18th to 19th. The guidance of renowned plenary lecturers and senior discussants is a critical part of the meeting and this volume, which follows publication of contributions from BAYSM 2013. The meeting's scientific program reflected the variety of fields in which Bayesian methods are currently employed or could be introduced in the future. Three brilliant keynote lectures by Chris Holmes (University of Oxford), Christian Robert (Université Paris-Dauphine), and Mike West (Duke University), were complemented by 24 plenary talks covering the major topics Dynamic Models, Applications, Bayesian Nonparametrics, Biostatistics, Bayesian Methods in Economics, and Models and Methods, as well as a lively poster session ...

Bayesian natural language semantics and pragmatics

CERN Document Server

Zeevat, Henk

2015-01-01

The contributions in this volume focus on the Bayesian interpretation of natural languages, which is widely used in areas of artificial intelligence, cognitive science, and computational linguistics. This is the first volume to take up topics in Bayesian Natural Language Interpretation and make proposals based on information theory, probability theory, and related fields. The methodologies offered here extend to the target semantic and pragmatic analyses of computational natural language interpretation. Bayesian approaches to natural language semantics and pragmatics are based on methods from signal processing and the causal Bayesian models pioneered by especially Pearl. In signal processing, the Bayesian method finds the most probable interpretation by finding the one that maximizes the product of the prior probability and the likelihood of the interpretation. It thus stresses the importance of a production model for interpretation as in Grice's contributions to pragmatics or in interpretation by abduction.

Isotopic reconstruction of the weaning process in the archaeological population of Canímar Abajo, Cuba: A Bayesian probability mixing model approach.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yadira Chinique de Armas

Full Text Available The general lack of well-preserved juvenile skeletal remains from Caribbean archaeological sites has, in the past, prevented evaluations of juvenile dietary changes. Canímar Abajo (Cuba, with a large number of well-preserved juvenile and adult skeletal remains, provided a unique opportunity to fully assess juvenile paleodiets from an ancient Caribbean population. Ages for the start and the end of weaning and possible food sources used for weaning were inferred by combining the results of two Bayesian probability models that help to reduce some of the uncertainties inherent to bone collagen isotope based paleodiet reconstructions. Bone collagen (31 juveniles, 18 adult females was used for carbon and nitrogen isotope analyses. The isotope results were assessed using two Bayesian probability models: Weaning Ages Reconstruction with Nitrogen isotopes and Stable Isotope Analyses in R. Breast milk seems to have been the most important protein source until two years of age with some supplementary food such as tropical fruits and root cultigens likely introduced earlier. After two, juvenile diets were likely continuously supplemented by starch rich foods such as root cultigens and legumes. By the age of three, the model results suggest that the weaning process was completed. Additional indications suggest that animal marine/riverine protein and maize, while part of the Canímar Abajo female diets, were likely not used to supplement juvenile diets. The combined use of both models here provided a more complete assessment of the weaning process for an ancient Caribbean population, indicating not only the start and end ages of weaning but also the relative importance of different food sources for different age juveniles.

Ancient ecology of 15-million-year-old browsing mammals within C3 plant communities from Panama.

Science.gov (United States)

MacFadden, Bruce J; Higgins, Pennilyn

2004-06-01

Middle Miocene mammals are known from approximately 15 million-year-old sediments exposed along the Panama Canal of Central America, a region that otherwise has an exceedingly poor terrestrial fossil record. These land mammals, which represent a part of the ancient terrestrial herbivore community, include an oreodont Merycochoerus matthewi, small camel-like protoceratid artiodactyl Paratoceras wardi, two horses Anchitherium clarencei and Archaeohippus sp., and two rhinos Menoceras barbouri and Floridaceras whitei. Bulk and serial carbon and oxygen isotope analyses of the tooth enamel carbonate allow reconstruction of the ancient climate and ecology of these fossil mammals. Ancient Panama had an equable climate with seasonal temperature and rainfall fluctuations less than those seen today. The middle Miocene terrestrial community consisted predominantly, or exclusively, of C3 plants, i.e., there is no evidence for C4 grasses. Statistically different mean carbon isotope values for the mammalian herbivores indicate niche partitioning of the C3 plant food resources. The range of individual carbon isotope analyses, i.e., delta13C from -15.9 to -10.1 per thousand, indicates herbivores feeding on diverse plants from different habitats with extrapolated delta13C values of -29.9 to -24.2 per thousand, possibly ranging from dense forest to more open country woodland. The ecological niches of individual mammalian herbivore species were differentiated either by diet or body size.

Bayesian methods in reliability

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, P.; Badoux, R.

1991-11-01

The present proceedings from a course on Bayesian methods in reliability encompasses Bayesian statistical methods and their computational implementation, models for analyzing censored data from nonrepairable systems, the traits of repairable systems and growth models, the use of expert judgment, and a review of the problem of forecasting software reliability. Specific issues addressed include the use of Bayesian methods to estimate the leak rate of a gas pipeline, approximate analyses under great prior uncertainty, reliability estimation techniques, and a nonhomogeneous Poisson process. Also addressed are the calibration sets and seed variables of expert judgment systems for risk assessment, experimental illustrations of the use of expert judgment for reliability testing, and analyses of the predictive quality of software-reliability growth models such as the Weibull order statistics.

Bayesian networks and food security - An introduction

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Stein, A.

2004-01-01

This paper gives an introduction to Bayesian networks. Networks are defined and put into a Bayesian context. Directed acyclical graphs play a crucial role here. Two simple examples from food security are addressed. Possible uses of Bayesian networks for implementation and further use in decision

Geologically ancient DNA: fact or artefact?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hebsgaard, Martin Bay; Phillips, Matthew J.; Willerslev, Eske

2005-01-01

Studies continue to report ancient DNA sequences and viable microbial cells that are many millions of years old. In this paper we evaluate some of the most extravagant claims of geologically ancient DNA. We conclude that although exciting, the reports suffer from inadequate experimental setup and...

Preliminary Facies Reconstruction of a Late Pleistocene Cypress Forest Discovered on the Northern Gulf of Mexico Continental Shelf

Science.gov (United States)

Gonzalez Rodriguez, S. M.; Bentley, S. J.; DeLong, K. L.; Xu, K.; Caporaso, A.; Obelcz, J. B.; Harley, G. L.; Reese, C. A.; Truong, J. T.

2016-12-01

We are investigating the origin and preservation of an ancient bald cypress forest (Taxodium distichum) discovered on the continental shelf seafloor, offshore of Gulf Shores, Alabama, USA, in 20 m water depth. The forest was likely buried in the late Pleistocene, possibly exhumed by Hurricane Ivan in 2004, and is now exposed as stumps in life position with little evidence of decay before recent marine exposure. Radiocarbon analyses show that the forest age is near (and in some cases beyond) the limits of 14C dating, at least 41-45 ky BP. In August 2015 and July 2016, submersible vibracores (up to 5 m in length) were collected. Ongoing core analyses include: organic content (loss on ignition), granulometry, and core logging using a Geotek Multi Sensor Core Logger to generate imagery, bulk density, and x-ray fluorescence data. To bolster 14C analyses, cores collected in 2016 are presently being dated using optically stimulated luminescence. Local stratigraphy consists of a surface facies of Holocene transgressive sands, underlain by possible estuarine sediments of interbedded sand and mud (potentially Holocene or Pleistocene), overlying a swamp or delta plain facies (likely Pleistocene) containing woody debris and mud. Deeper woody facies are thought to include the soil horizons of the ancient cypress forest. Cores collected in 2016 revealed a Pleistocene paleosol beneath Holocene sands in a nearby trough. Elevation differences between swamp and paleosol horizons will be evaluated from bathymetric and subbottom data, to help characterize the preserved ancient landscape. Initial interpretation based on close proximity of Pleistocene swamp and oxidized paleosol sediments, and regional geomorphic gradients suggest that this relatively diverse assemblage of facies developed up to tens of km from the glacial-age coastline, and relatively rapid burial prevented erosion by coastal processes during the Holocene transgression thus preserving the tree stumps and wood debris.

12th Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics

CERN Document Server

Louzada, Francisco; Rifo, Laura; Stern, Julio; Lauretto, Marcelo

2015-01-01

Through refereed papers, this volume focuses on the foundations of the Bayesian paradigm; their comparison to objectivistic or frequentist Statistics counterparts; and the appropriate application of Bayesian foundations. This research in Bayesian Statistics is applicable to data analysis in biostatistics, clinical trials, law, engineering, and the social sciences. EBEB, the Brazilian Meeting on Bayesian Statistics, is held every two years by the ISBrA, the International Society for Bayesian Analysis, one of the most active chapters of the ISBA. The 12th meeting took place March 10-14, 2014 in Atibaia. Interest in foundations of inductive Statistics has grown recently in accordance with the increasing availability of Bayesian methodological alternatives. Scientists need to deal with the ever more difficult choice of the optimal method to apply to their problem. This volume shows how Bayes can be the answer. The examination and discussion on the foundations work towards the goal of proper application of Bayesia...

The conscious of Nightmares in ancient China

OpenAIRE

西林, 眞紀子

2006-01-01

The analaysis concerns Nightmares in ancient China. People in ancient China were very afraid of Nightmares. Nightmares are described in the『春秋左氏傳』etc. The exocis Nightmares is described in the『周禮』. The ceremony "難" of exocis Nightmares in the『禮記』. In the characters Meng (夢) had the conscious of Nightmares in ancient China. The analaysis is about the characters 'Meng', about the characters of the relationship 'Meng'

Unriddling of ancient-medieval culture by PIXE

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uda, M.

1997-01-01

Some examples are given for unriddling of ancient-medieval culture by PIXE. Effectiveness of PIXE to analyze art and archaeological objects is also explained. Objects employed here are 1) red, yellow, blue and white pigments painted on sun-dried bricks excavated in Egypt, 2) ancient glass beads used in the Near East, 3) South American mummy hair, 4) ancient slag excavated from Kansai-district, Japan 5) ink used by Galileo Galilei and 6) Renaissance style enameled gold jewelry. (author)

What do we know about our graduates? Graduate analysis for forest sciences and related curricula

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schmidt, P.; Lewark, S.; Strange, N.

2010-01-01

Forestry as such is an old trade; already the ancient Romans did it. Its education is less old, about two centuries. Apparently, as Lewark remarked in his introduction, in general foresters educated at universities matched the need of the forestry sector.. Only about 40 years ago, the need to know

Sequential fragmentation of Pleistocene forests in an East Africa biodiversity hotspot: chameleons as a model to track forest history.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G John Measey

Full Text Available The Eastern Arc Mountains (EAM is an example of naturally fragmented tropical forests, which contain one of the highest known concentrations of endemic plants and vertebrates. Numerous paleo-climatic studies have not provided direct evidence for ancient presence of Pleistocene forests, particularly in the regions in which savannah presently occurs. Knowledge of the last period when forests connected EAM would provide a sound basis for hypothesis testing of vicariance and dispersal models of speciation. Dated phylogenies have revealed complex patterns throughout EAM, so we investigated divergence times of forest fauna on four montane isolates in close proximity to determine whether forest break-up was most likely to have been simultaneous or sequential, using population genetics of a forest restricted arboreal chameleon, Kinyongia boehmei.We used mitochondrial and nuclear genetic sequence data and mutation rates from a fossil-calibrated phylogeny to estimate divergence times between montane isolates using a coalescent approach. We found that chameleons on all mountains are most likely to have diverged sequentially within the Pleistocene from 0.93-0.59 Ma (95% HPD 0.22-1.84 Ma. In addition, post-hoc tests on chameleons on the largest montane isolate suggest a population expansion ∼182 Ka.Sequential divergence is most likely to have occurred after the last of three wet periods within the arid Plio-Pleistocene era, but was not correlated with inter-montane distance. We speculate that forest connection persisted due to riparian corridors regardless of proximity, highlighting their importance in the region's historic dispersal events. The population expansion coincides with nearby volcanic activity, which may also explain the relative paucity of the Taita's endemic fauna. Our study shows that forest chameleons are an apposite group to track forest fragmentation, with the inference that forest extended between some EAM during the Pleistocene 1

Kernel Bayesian ART and ARTMAP.

Science.gov (United States)

Masuyama, Naoki; Loo, Chu Kiong; Dawood, Farhan

2018-02-01

Adaptive Resonance Theory (ART) is one of the successful approaches to resolving "the plasticity-stability dilemma" in neural networks, and its supervised learning model called ARTMAP is a powerful tool for classification. Among several improvements, such as Fuzzy or Gaussian based models, the state of art model is Bayesian based one, while solving the drawbacks of others. However, it is known that the Bayesian approach for the high dimensional and a large number of data requires high computational cost, and the covariance matrix in likelihood becomes unstable. This paper introduces Kernel Bayesian ART (KBA) and ARTMAP (KBAM) by integrating Kernel Bayes' Rule (KBR) and Correntropy Induced Metric (CIM) to Bayesian ART (BA) and ARTMAP (BAM), respectively, while maintaining the properties of BA and BAM. The kernel frameworks in KBA and KBAM are able to avoid the curse of dimensionality. In addition, the covariance-free Bayesian computation by KBR provides the efficient and stable computational capability to KBA and KBAM. Furthermore, Correntropy-based similarity measurement allows improving the noise reduction ability even in the high dimensional space. The simulation experiments show that KBA performs an outstanding self-organizing capability than BA, and KBAM provides the superior classification ability than BAM, respectively. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian networks improve causal environmental ...

Science.gov (United States)

Rule-based weight of evidence approaches to ecological risk assessment may not account for uncertainties and generally lack probabilistic integration of lines of evidence. Bayesian networks allow causal inferences to be made from evidence by including causal knowledge about the problem, using this knowledge with probabilistic calculus to combine multiple lines of evidence, and minimizing biases in predicting or diagnosing causal relationships. Too often, sources of uncertainty in conventional weight of evidence approaches are ignored that can be accounted for with Bayesian networks. Specifying and propagating uncertainties improve the ability of models to incorporate strength of the evidence in the risk management phase of an assessment. Probabilistic inference from a Bayesian network allows evaluation of changes in uncertainty for variables from the evidence. The network structure and probabilistic framework of a Bayesian approach provide advantages over qualitative approaches in weight of evidence for capturing the impacts of multiple sources of quantifiable uncertainty on predictions of ecological risk. Bayesian networks can facilitate the development of evidence-based policy under conditions of uncertainty by incorporating analytical inaccuracies or the implications of imperfect information, structuring and communicating causal issues through qualitative directed graph formulations, and quantitatively comparing the causal power of multiple stressors on value

Bayesian Latent Class Analysis Tutorial.

Science.gov (United States)

Li, Yuelin; Lord-Bessen, Jennifer; Shiyko, Mariya; Loeb, Rebecca

2018-01-01

This article is a how-to guide on Bayesian computation using Gibbs sampling, demonstrated in the context of Latent Class Analysis (LCA). It is written for students in quantitative psychology or related fields who have a working knowledge of Bayes Theorem and conditional probability and have experience in writing computer programs in the statistical language R . The overall goals are to provide an accessible and self-contained tutorial, along with a practical computation tool. We begin with how Bayesian computation is typically described in academic articles. Technical difficulties are addressed by a hypothetical, worked-out example. We show how Bayesian computation can be broken down into a series of simpler calculations, which can then be assembled together to complete a computationally more complex model. The details are described much more explicitly than what is typically available in elementary introductions to Bayesian modeling so that readers are not overwhelmed by the mathematics. Moreover, the provided computer program shows how Bayesian LCA can be implemented with relative ease. The computer program is then applied in a large, real-world data set and explained line-by-line. We outline the general steps in how to extend these considerations to other methodological applications. We conclude with suggestions for further readings.

Bayesian policy reuse

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Rosman, Benjamin

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Keywords Policy Reuse · Reinforcement Learning · Online Learning · Online Bandits · Transfer Learning · Bayesian Optimisation · Bayesian Decision Theory. 1 Introduction As robots and software agents are becoming more ubiquitous in many applications.... The agent has access to a library of policies (pi1, pi2 and pi3), and has previously experienced a set of task instances (τ1, τ2, τ3, τ4), as well as samples of the utilities of the library policies on these instances (the black dots indicate the means...

Inverse problems in the Bayesian framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Calvetti, Daniela; Somersalo, Erkki; Kaipio, Jari P

2014-01-01

The history of Bayesian methods dates back to the original works of Reverend Thomas Bayes and Pierre-Simon Laplace: the former laid down some of the basic principles on inverse probability in his classic article ‘An essay towards solving a problem in the doctrine of chances’ that was read posthumously in the Royal Society in 1763. Laplace, on the other hand, in his ‘Memoirs on inverse probability’ of 1774 developed the idea of updating beliefs and wrote down the celebrated Bayes’ formula in the form we know today. Although not identified yet as a framework for investigating inverse problems, Laplace used the formalism very much in the spirit it is used today in the context of inverse problems, e.g., in his study of the distribution of comets. With the evolution of computational tools, Bayesian methods have become increasingly popular in all fields of human knowledge in which conclusions need to be drawn based on incomplete and noisy data. Needless to say, inverse problems, almost by definition, fall into this category. Systematic work for developing a Bayesian inverse problem framework can arguably be traced back to the 1980s, (the original first edition being published by Elsevier in 1987), although articles on Bayesian methodology applied to inverse problems, in particular in geophysics, had appeared much earlier. Today, as testified by the articles in this special issue, the Bayesian methodology as a framework for considering inverse problems has gained a lot of popularity, and it has integrated very successfully with many traditional inverse problems ideas and techniques, providing novel ways to interpret and implement traditional procedures in numerical analysis, computational statistics, signal analysis and data assimilation. The range of applications where the Bayesian framework has been fundamental goes from geophysics, engineering and imaging to astronomy, life sciences and economy, and continues to grow. There is no question that Bayesian

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Chad Babcock; Andrew O. Finley; John B. Bradford; Randy Kolka; Richard Birdsey; Michael G. Ryan

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both...

The use of radiocarbon to constrain current and future soil organic matter turnover and transport in a temperate forest

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Braakhekke, M.C.; Beer, C.; Schrumpf, M.; Ahrens, B.; Hoosbeek, M.R.; Kruijt, B.; Kabat, P.; Reichstein, M.; Ekici, A.

2014-01-01

We investigated the merits of radiocarbon measurements for estimating soil organic matter (SOM) turnover and vertical transport for a temperate deciduous forest in Germany. Eleven parameters, defining decomposition and transport in the soil carbon model SOMPROF, were estimated using a Bayesian

Bayesian models: A statistical primer for ecologists

Science.gov (United States)

Hobbs, N. Thompson; Hooten, Mevin B.

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods—in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach.Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probability and develops a step-by-step sequence of connected ideas, including basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and inference from single and multiple models. This unique book places less emphasis on computer coding, favoring instead a concise presentation of the mathematical statistics needed to understand how and why Bayesian analysis works. It also explains how to write out properly formulated hierarchical Bayesian models and use them in computing, research papers, and proposals.This primer enables ecologists to understand the statistical principles behind Bayesian modeling and apply them to research, teaching, policy, and management.Presents the mathematical and statistical foundations of Bayesian modeling in language accessible to non-statisticiansCovers basic distribution theory, network diagrams, hierarchical models, Markov chain Monte Carlo, and moreDeemphasizes computer coding in favor of basic principlesExplains how to write out properly factored statistical expressions representing Bayesian models

The current state of Bayesian methods in medical product development: survey results and recommendations from the DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group.

Science.gov (United States)

Natanegara, Fanni; Neuenschwander, Beat; Seaman, John W; Kinnersley, Nelson; Heilmann, Cory R; Ohlssen, David; Rochester, George

2014-01-01

Bayesian applications in medical product development have recently gained popularity. Despite many advances in Bayesian methodology and computations, increase in application across the various areas of medical product development has been modest. The DIA Bayesian Scientific Working Group (BSWG), which includes representatives from industry, regulatory agencies, and academia, has adopted the vision to ensure Bayesian methods are well understood, accepted more broadly, and appropriately utilized to improve decision making and enhance patient outcomes. As Bayesian applications in medical product development are wide ranging, several sub-teams were formed to focus on various topics such as patient safety, non-inferiority, prior specification, comparative effectiveness, joint modeling, program-wide decision making, analytical tools, and education. The focus of this paper is on the recent effort of the BSWG Education sub-team to administer a Bayesian survey to statisticians across 17 organizations involved in medical product development. We summarize results of this survey, from which we provide recommendations on how to accelerate progress in Bayesian applications throughout medical product development. The survey results support findings from the literature and provide additional insight on regulatory acceptance of Bayesian methods and information on the need for a Bayesian infrastructure within an organization. The survey findings support the claim that only modest progress in areas of education and implementation has been made recently, despite substantial progress in Bayesian statistical research and software availability. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Bayesian Alternation During Tactile Augmentation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Caspar Mathias Goeke

2016-10-01

Full Text Available A large number of studies suggest that the integration of multisensory signals by humans is well described by Bayesian principles. However, there are very few reports about cue combination between a native and an augmented sense. In particular, we asked the question whether adult participants are able to integrate an augmented sensory cue with existing native sensory information. Hence for the purpose of this study we build a tactile augmentation device. Consequently, we compared different hypotheses of how untrained adult participants combine information from a native and an augmented sense. In a two-interval forced choice (2 IFC task, while subjects were blindfolded and seated on a rotating platform, our sensory augmentation device translated information on whole body yaw rotation to tactile stimulation. Three conditions were realized: tactile stimulation only (augmented condition, rotation only (native condition, and both augmented and native information (bimodal condition. Participants had to choose one out of two consecutive rotations with higher angular rotation. For the analysis, we fitted the participants’ responses with a probit model and calculated the just notable difference (JND. Then we compared several models for predicting bimodal from unimodal responses. An objective Bayesian alternation model yielded a better prediction (χred2 = 1.67 than the Bayesian integration model (χred2= 4.34. Slightly higher accuracy showed a non-Bayesian winner takes all model (χred2= 1.64, which either used only native or only augmented values per subject for prediction. However the performance of the Bayesian alternation model could be substantially improved (χred2= 1.09 utilizing subjective weights obtained by a questionnaire. As a result, the subjective Bayesian alternation model predicted bimodal performance most accurately among all tested models. These results suggest that information from augmented and existing sensory modalities in

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly M; Clifton, James P; van de Schoot, Rens; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-09-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of health psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation models, latent growth curve (and mixture) models, and hierarchical linear models. Likewise, Bayesian methods can be used with small sample sizes since they do not rely on large sample theory. In this article, we discuss several important components of Bayesian statistics as they relate to health-based inquiries. We discuss the incorporation and impact of prior knowledge into the estimation process and the different components of the analysis that should be reported in an article. We present an example implementing Bayesian estimation in the context of blood pressure changes after participants experienced an acute stressor. We conclude with final thoughts on the implementation of Bayesian statistics in health psychology, including suggestions for reviewing Bayesian manuscripts and grant proposals. We have also included an extensive amount of online supplementary material to complement the content presented here, including Bayesian examples using many different software programmes and an extensive sensitivity analysis examining the impact of priors.

Reconstructing ancient genomes and epigenomes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Orlando, Ludovic Antoine Alexandre; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.; Willerslev, Eske

2015-01-01

DNA studies have now progressed to whole-genome sequencing for an increasing number of ancient individuals and extinct species, as well as to epigenomic characterization. Such advances have enabled the sequencing of specimens of up to 1 million years old, which, owing to their extensive DNA damage...... and contamination, were previously not amenable to genetic analyses. In this Review, we discuss these varied technical challenges and solutions for sequencing ancient genomes and epigenomes....

Bayesian Network Induction via Local Neighborhoods

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Margaritis, Dimitris

1999-01-01

.... We present an efficient algorithm for learning Bayesian networks from data. Our approach constructs Bayesian networks by first identifying each node's Markov blankets, then connecting nodes in a consistent way...

A Bayesian encourages dropout

OpenAIRE

Maeda, Shin-ichi

2014-01-01

Dropout is one of the key techniques to prevent the learning from overfitting. It is explained that dropout works as a kind of modified L2 regularization. Here, we shed light on the dropout from Bayesian standpoint. Bayesian interpretation enables us to optimize the dropout rate, which is beneficial for learning of weight parameters and prediction after learning. The experiment result also encourages the optimization of the dropout.

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 2)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

Bayesian Data Analysis (lecture 1)

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2018-01-01

framework but we will also go into more detail and discuss for example the role of the prior. The second part of the lecture will cover further examples and applications that heavily rely on the bayesian approach, as well as some computational tools needed to perform a bayesian analysis.

[Ancient Greek in modern language of medicine].

Science.gov (United States)

Marković, Vera

2007-01-01

In order to standardize language of medicine, it is essential to have a good command of ancient Greek and Latin. We cannot deny a huge impact of ancient Greek medicine on medical terminology. Compounds of Greek origin related to terms for organs, illnesses, inflammations, surgical procedures etc. have been listed as examples. They contain Greek prefixes and suffixes transcribed into Latin and they have been analysed. It may be concluded that the modern language of medicine basically represents the ancient Greek language transcribed into Latin.

Learning Local Components to Understand Large Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zeng, Yifeng; Xiang, Yanping; Cordero, Jorge

2009-01-01

(domain experts) to extract accurate information from a large Bayesian network due to dimensional difficulty. We define a formulation of local components and propose a clustering algorithm to learn such local components given complete data. The algorithm groups together most inter-relevant attributes......Bayesian networks are known for providing an intuitive and compact representation of probabilistic information and allowing the creation of models over a large and complex domain. Bayesian learning and reasoning are nontrivial for a large Bayesian network. In parallel, it is a tough job for users...... in a domain. We evaluate its performance on three benchmark Bayesian networks and provide results in support. We further show that the learned components may represent local knowledge more precisely in comparison to the full Bayesian networks when working with a small amount of data....

Philosophy and the practice of Bayesian statistics.

Science.gov (United States)

Gelman, Andrew; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla

2013-02-01

A substantial school in the philosophy of science identifies Bayesian inference with inductive inference and even rationality as such, and seems to be strengthened by the rise and practical success of Bayesian statistics. We argue that the most successful forms of Bayesian statistics do not actually support that particular philosophy but rather accord much better with sophisticated forms of hypothetico-deductivism. We examine the actual role played by prior distributions in Bayesian models, and the crucial aspects of model checking and model revision, which fall outside the scope of Bayesian confirmation theory. We draw on the literature on the consistency of Bayesian updating and also on our experience of applied work in social science. Clarity about these matters should benefit not just philosophy of science, but also statistical practice. At best, the inductivist view has encouraged researchers to fit and compare models without checking them; at worst, theorists have actively discouraged practitioners from performing model checking because it does not fit into their framework. © 2012 The British Psychological Society.

Deep sequencing of RNA from ancient maize kernels

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fordyce, Sarah Louise; Avila Arcos, Maria del Carmen; Rasmussen, Morten

2013-01-01

The characterization of biomolecules from ancient samples can shed otherwise unobtainable insights into the past. Despite the fundamental role of transcriptomal change in evolution, the potential of ancient RNA remains unexploited - perhaps due to dogma associated with the fragility of RNA. We hy...... maize kernels. The results suggest that ancient seed transcriptomics may offer a powerful new tool with which to study plant domestication....

The provenance investigation on ancient chinese Ru porcelains by NAA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Zhengyao; Wang Jie; Chen Songhua

1997-01-01

The 28 samples of glazes and bodies of ancient Chinese Ru porcelains are analyzed by neutron activation. The 36 element contents in each sample are determined. The neutron activation analysis (NAA) data are analyzed by fuzzy cluster. The trend cluster diagram is obtained. The result shows that the ancient Chinese Ru porcelains were most probably from the same raw material source though they were from different time, fired in different kilns and in different colors. The near provenance relation between ancient Jun porcelain and ancient Ru porcelain is preliminarily analyzed. The two modern Ru porcelains approximate to ancient Ru porcelains, one becomes estranged from ancient Ru porcelains. Jingdezhen porcelain is unconcerned with Ru porcelains

Ancient Egyptian Medicine: A Systematic Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Samuel Adu-Gyamfi

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Our present day knowledge in the area of medicine in Ancient Egypt has been severally sourced from medical papyri several of which have been deduced and analyzed by different scholars. For educational purposes it is always imperative to consult different literature or sources in the teaching of ancient Egypt and medicine in particular. To avoid subjectivity the author has found the need to re-engage the efforts made by several scholars in adducing evidences from medical papyri. In the quest to re-engage the efforts of earlier writers and commentaries on the medical papyri, we are afforded the opportunity to be informed about the need to ask further questions to enable us to construct or reconstruct both past and modern views on ancient Egyptian medical knowledge. It is this vocation the author sought to pursue in the interim, through a preliminary review, to highlight, comment and reinvigorate in the reader or researcher the need for a continuous engagement of some pertinent documentary sources on Ancient Egyptian medical knowledge for educational and research purposes. The study is based on qualitative review of published literature. The selection of those articles as sources was based on the focus of the review, in order to purposively select and comment on articles that were published based either on information from a medical papyrus or focused on medical specialization among the ancient Egyptians as well as ancient Egyptian knowledge on diseases and medicine. It was found that the Egyptians developed relatively sophisticated medical practices covering significant medical fields such as herbal medicine, gynecology and obstetrics, anatomy and physiology, mummification and even the preliminary form of surgery. These practices, perhaps, were developed as remedies for the prevailing diseases and the accidents that might have occurred during the construction of their giant pyramids. It must be stated that they were not without flaws. Also, the

Ancient Greek in modern language of medicine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marković Vera

2007-01-01

Full Text Available In order to standardize language of medicine, it is essential to have a good command of ancient Greek and Latin. We cannot deny a huge impact of ancient Greek medicine on medical terminology. Compounds of Greek origin related to terms for organs, illnesses, inflammations, surgical procedures etc. have been listed as examples. They contain Greek prefixes and suffixes transcribed into Latin and they have been analyzed. It may be concluded that the modern language of medicine basically represents the ancient Greek language transcribed into Latin.

Suicide in ancient Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Laios, K; Tsoukalas, G; Kontaxaki, M-I; Karamanou, M; Androutsos, G

2014-01-01

The theme of suicide appears several times in ancient Greek literature. However, each such reference acquires special significance depending on the field from which it originates. Most of the information found in mythology, but the suicide in a mythological tale, although in terms of motivation and mental situation of heroes may be in imitation of similar incidents of real life, in fact is linked with the principles of the ancient Greek religion. In ancient drama and mainly in tragedies suicide conduces to the tragic hypostasis of the heroes and to the evolution of the plot and also is a tool in order to be presented the ideas of poets for the relations of the gods, the relation among gods and men and the relation among the men. In ancient Greek philosophy there were the deniers of suicide, who were more concerned about the impact of suicide on society and also these who accepted it, recognizing the right of the individual to put an end to his life, in order to avoid personal misfortunes. Real suicides will be found mostly from historical sources, but most of them concern leading figures of the ancient world. Closer to the problem of suicide in the everyday life of antiquity are ancient Greek medicines, who studied the phenomenon more general without references to specific incidents. Doctors did not approve in principal the suicide and dealt with it as insane behavior in the development of the mental diseases, of melancholia and mania. They considered that the discrepancy of humors in the organ of logic in the human body will cause malfunction, which will lead to the absurdity and consequently to suicide, either due to excessive concentration of black bile in melancholia or due to yellow bile in mania. They believed that greater risk to commit suicide had women, young people and the elderly. As therapy they used the drugs of their time with the intention to induce calm and repression in the ill person, therefore they mainly used mandragora. In general, we would say

Bayesian Utilitarianism

OpenAIRE

ZHOU, Lin

1996-01-01

In this paper I consider social choices under uncertainty. I prove that any social choice rule that satisfies independence of irrelevant alternatives, translation invariance, and weak anonymity is consistent with ex post Bayesian utilitarianism

Exploring Ancient Skies An Encyclopedic Survey of Archaeoastronomy

CERN Document Server

Kelley, David H

2005-01-01

Exploring Ancient Skies brings together the methods of archaeology and the insights of modern astronomy to explore the science of astronomy as it was practiced in various cultures prior to the invention of the telescope. The book reviews an enormous and growing body of literature on the cultures of the ancient Mediterranean, the Far East, and the New World (particularly Mesoamerica), putting the ancient astronomical materials into their archaeological and cultural contexts. The authors begin with an overview of the field and proceed to essential aspects of naked-eye astronomy, followed by an examination of specific cultures. The book concludes by taking into account the purposes of ancient astronomy: astrology, navigation, calendar regulation, and (not least) the understanding of our place and role in the universe. Skies are recreated to display critical events as they would have appeared to ancient observers - events such as the supernova of 1054, the 'lion horoscope' or the 'Star of Bethlehem.' Exploring An...

Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming; Zhang, Jian

2009-01-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly

Searching Algorithm Using Bayesian Updates

Science.gov (United States)

Caudle, Kyle

2010-01-01

In late October 1967, the USS Scorpion was lost at sea, somewhere between the Azores and Norfolk Virginia. Dr. Craven of the U.S. Navy's Special Projects Division is credited with using Bayesian Search Theory to locate the submarine. Bayesian Search Theory is a straightforward and interesting application of Bayes' theorem which involves searching…

Bayesian estimates of linkage disequilibrium

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Abad-Grau María M

2007-06-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background The maximum likelihood estimator of D' – a standard measure of linkage disequilibrium – is biased toward disequilibrium, and the bias is particularly evident in small samples and rare haplotypes. Results This paper proposes a Bayesian estimation of D' to address this problem. The reduction of the bias is achieved by using a prior distribution on the pair-wise associations between single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs that increases the likelihood of equilibrium with increasing physical distances between pairs of SNPs. We show how to compute the Bayesian estimate using a stochastic estimation based on MCMC methods, and also propose a numerical approximation to the Bayesian estimates that can be used to estimate patterns of LD in large datasets of SNPs. Conclusion Our Bayesian estimator of D' corrects the bias toward disequilibrium that affects the maximum likelihood estimator. A consequence of this feature is a more objective view about the extent of linkage disequilibrium in the human genome, and a more realistic number of tagging SNPs to fully exploit the power of genome wide association studies.

Ancient DNA from Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) of South-Western China Reveals Genetic Diversity Loss during the Holocene.

Science.gov (United States)

Sheng, Gui-Lian; Barlow, Axel; Cooper, Alan; Hou, Xin-Dong; Ji, Xue-Ping; Jablonski, Nina G; Zhong, Bo-Jian; Liu, Hong; Flynn, Lawrence J; Yuan, Jun-Xia; Wang, Li-Rui; Basler, Nikolas; Westbury, Michael V; Hofreiter, Michael; Lai, Xu-Long

2018-04-06

The giant panda was widely distributed in China and south-eastern Asia during the middle to late Pleistocene, prior to its habitat becoming rapidly reduced in the Holocene. While conservation reserves have been established and population numbers of the giant panda have recently increased, the interpretation of its genetic diversity remains controversial. Previous analyses, surprisingly, have indicated relatively high levels of genetic diversity raising issues concerning the efficiency and usefulness of reintroducing individuals from captive populations. However, due to a lack of DNA data from fossil specimens, it is unknown whether genetic diversity was even higher prior to the most recent population decline. We amplified complete cyt b and 12s rRNA, partial 16s rRNA and ND1 , and control region sequences from the mitochondrial genomes of two Holocene panda specimens. We estimated genetic diversity and population demography by analyzing the ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences alongside those from modern giant pandas, as well as from other members of the bear family (Ursidae). Phylogenetic analyses show that one of the ancient haplotypes is sister to all sampled modern pandas and the second ancient individual is nested among the modern haplotypes, suggesting that genetic diversity may indeed have been higher earlier during the Holocene. Bayesian skyline plot analysis supports this view and indicates a slight decline in female effective population size starting around 6000 years B.P., followed by a recovery around 2000 years ago. Therefore, while the genetic diversity of the giant panda has been affected by recent habitat contraction, it still harbors substantial genetic diversity. Moreover, while its still low population numbers require continued conservation efforts, there seem to be no immediate threats from the perspective of genetic evolutionary potential.

Ancient DNA from Giant Panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca of South-Western China Reveals Genetic Diversity Loss during the Holocene

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gui-Lian Sheng

2018-04-01

Full Text Available The giant panda was widely distributed in China and south-eastern Asia during the middle to late Pleistocene, prior to its habitat becoming rapidly reduced in the Holocene. While conservation reserves have been established and population numbers of the giant panda have recently increased, the interpretation of its genetic diversity remains controversial. Previous analyses, surprisingly, have indicated relatively high levels of genetic diversity raising issues concerning the efficiency and usefulness of reintroducing individuals from captive populations. However, due to a lack of DNA data from fossil specimens, it is unknown whether genetic diversity was even higher prior to the most recent population decline. We amplified complete cytb and 12s rRNA, partial 16s rRNA and ND1, and control region sequences from the mitochondrial genomes of two Holocene panda specimens. We estimated genetic diversity and population demography by analyzing the ancient mitochondrial DNA sequences alongside those from modern giant pandas, as well as from other members of the bear family (Ursidae. Phylogenetic analyses show that one of the ancient haplotypes is sister to all sampled modern pandas and the second ancient individual is nested among the modern haplotypes, suggesting that genetic diversity may indeed have been higher earlier during the Holocene. Bayesian skyline plot analysis supports this view and indicates a slight decline in female effective population size starting around 6000 years B.P., followed by a recovery around 2000 years ago. Therefore, while the genetic diversity of the giant panda has been affected by recent habitat contraction, it still harbors substantial genetic diversity. Moreover, while its still low population numbers require continued conservation efforts, there seem to be no immediate threats from the perspective of genetic evolutionary potential.

Twins in Ancient Greece: a synopsis.

Science.gov (United States)

Malamitsi-Puchner, Ariadne

2016-01-01

This brief outline associates twins with several aspects of life in Ancient Greece. In Greek mythology twins caused ambivalent reactions and were believed to have ambivalent feelings for each other. Very often, they were viewed as the representatives of the dualistic nature of the universe. Heteropaternal superfecundation, which dominates in ancient myths, explains on one hand, the god-like qualities and, on the other hand, the mortal nature of many twins. An assumption is presented that legends referring to twins might reflect the territorial expansions of Ancient Greeks in Northern Mediterranean, around the Black Sea, in Asia Minor, as well as North East Africa. In conclusion, in Greek antiquity, twins have been used as transitional figures between myth and reality.

Neanderthal behaviour, diet, and disease inferred from ancient DNA in dental calculus.

Science.gov (United States)

Weyrich, Laura S; Duchene, Sebastian; Soubrier, Julien; Arriola, Luis; Llamas, Bastien; Breen, James; Morris, Alan G; Alt, Kurt W; Caramelli, David; Dresely, Veit; Farrell, Milly; Farrer, Andrew G; Francken, Michael; Gully, Neville; Haak, Wolfgang; Hardy, Karen; Harvati, Katerina; Held, Petra; Holmes, Edward C; Kaidonis, John; Lalueza-Fox, Carles; de la Rasilla, Marco; Rosas, Antonio; Semal, Patrick; Soltysiak, Arkadiusz; Townsend, Grant; Usai, Donatella; Wahl, Joachim; Huson, Daniel H; Dobney, Keith; Cooper, Alan

2017-04-20

Recent genomic data have revealed multiple interactions between Neanderthals and modern humans, but there is currently little genetic evidence regarding Neanderthal behaviour, diet, or disease. Here we describe the shotgun-sequencing of ancient DNA from five specimens of Neanderthal calcified dental plaque (calculus) and the characterization of regional differences in Neanderthal ecology. At Spy cave, Belgium, Neanderthal diet was heavily meat based and included woolly rhinoceros and wild sheep (mouflon), characteristic of a steppe environment. In contrast, no meat was detected in the diet of Neanderthals from El Sidrón cave, Spain, and dietary components of mushrooms, pine nuts, and moss reflected forest gathering. Differences in diet were also linked to an overall shift in the oral bacterial community (microbiota) and suggested that meat consumption contributed to substantial variation within Neanderthal microbiota. Evidence for self-medication was detected in an El Sidrón Neanderthal with a dental abscess and a chronic gastrointestinal pathogen (Enterocytozoon bieneusi). Metagenomic data from this individual also contained a nearly complete genome of the archaeal commensal Methanobrevibacter oralis (10.2× depth of coverage)-the oldest draft microbial genome generated to date, at around 48,000 years old. DNA preserved within dental calculus represents a notable source of information about the behaviour and health of ancient hominin specimens, as well as a unique system that is useful for the study of long-term microbial evolution.

Learning Bayesian networks for discrete data

KAUST Repository

Liang, Faming

2009-02-01

Bayesian networks have received much attention in the recent literature. In this article, we propose an approach to learn Bayesian networks using the stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) algorithm. Our approach has two nice features. Firstly, it possesses the self-adjusting mechanism and thus avoids essentially the local-trap problem suffered by conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches in learning Bayesian networks. Secondly, it falls into the class of dynamic importance sampling algorithms; the network features can be inferred by dynamically weighted averaging the samples generated in the learning process, and the resulting estimates can have much lower variation than the single model-based estimates. The numerical results indicate that our approach can mix much faster over the space of Bayesian networks than the conventional MCMC simulation-based approaches. © 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Detection of early warning signals of forest mortality in California

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Y.; Kumar, M.; Katul, G. G.; Porporato, A. M.

2017-12-01

Massive forest mortality was observed in California during the most recent drought. Owing to complex interactions of physiological mechanisms under stress, prediction of climate-induced forest mortality using dynamic global vegetation models remains fraught with uncertainty. Given that forest ecosystems approaching mortality tend to exhibit reduction in resilience, we evaluate the time-varying resilience from time series of satellite images to detect early warning signals (EWSs) of mortality. Four metrics of EWSs are used: (1) low greenness, (2) high empirical autocorrelation of greenness, (3) high autocorrelation inferred using a Bayesian dynamic linear model considering the influence of seasonality and climate conditions, and (4) low recovery rate inferred from the drift term in the Langevin equation describing stochastic dynamics. Spatial accuracy and lead-time of these EWSs are evaluated by comparing the EWSs against observed mortality from aerial surveys conducted by the US Forest Service. Our results show that most forested areas in California that underwent mortality exhibit a EWS with a lead time of three months to two years ahead of observed mortality. Notably, EWS is also detected in some areas without mortality, suggesting reduced resilience during drought. Furthermore, the influence of the previous drought (2007-2009) may have propagated into the recent drought (2012-2016) through reduced resilience, hence contributing to the massive forest mortality observed recently. Methodologies developed in this study for detection of EWS will improve the near-term predictability of forest mortality, thus providing crucial information for forest and water resource management.

A predictive framework to understand forest responses to global change.

Science.gov (United States)

McMahon, Sean M; Dietze, Michael C; Hersh, Michelle H; Moran, Emily V; Clark, James S

2009-04-01

Forests are one of Earth's critical biomes. They have been shown to respond strongly to many of the drivers that are predicted to change natural systems over this century, including climate, introduced species, and other anthropogenic influences. Predicting how different tree species might respond to this complex of forces remains a daunting challenge for forest ecologists. Yet shifts in species composition and abundance can radically influence hydrological and atmospheric systems, plant and animal ranges, and human populations, making this challenge an important one to address. Forest ecologists have gathered a great deal of data over the past decades and are now using novel quantitative and computational tools to translate those data into predictions about the fate of forests. Here, after a brief review of the threats to forests over the next century, one of the more promising approaches to making ecological predictions is described: using hierarchical Bayesian methods to model forest demography and simulating future forests from those models. This approach captures complex processes, such as seed dispersal and mortality, and incorporates uncertainty due to unknown mechanisms, data problems, and parameter uncertainty. After describing the approach, an example by simulating drought for a southeastern forest is offered. Finally, there is a discussion of how this approach and others need to be cast within a framework of prediction that strives to answer the important questions posed to environmental scientists, but does so with a respect for the challenges inherent in predicting the future of a complex biological system.

The Ancient Kemetic Roots of Library and Information Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Zulu, Itibari M.

This paper argues that the ancient people of Kemet (Egypt), "the black land," built and operated the first major libraries and institutions of higher education in the world. Topics of discussion include the Ancient Egyptians as an African people; a chronology of Ancient Kemet; literature in Kemet; a history of Egyptian Librarianship; the…

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for ANOVA designs

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wetzels, R.; Grasman, R.P.P.P.; Wagenmakers, E.J.

2012-01-01

This article presents a Bayesian hypothesis test for analysis of variance (ANOVA) designs. The test is an application of standard Bayesian methods for variable selection in regression models. We illustrate the effect of various g-priors on the ANOVA hypothesis test. The Bayesian test for ANOVA

Bayesian Networks An Introduction

CERN Document Server

Koski, Timo

2009-01-01

Bayesian Networks: An Introduction provides a self-contained introduction to the theory and applications of Bayesian networks, a topic of interest and importance for statisticians, computer scientists and those involved in modelling complex data sets. The material has been extensively tested in classroom teaching and assumes a basic knowledge of probability, statistics and mathematics. All notions are carefully explained and feature exercises throughout. Features include:.: An introduction to Dirichlet Distribution, Exponential Families and their applications.; A detailed description of learni

Ancient and modern women in the "Woman's World".

Science.gov (United States)

Hurst, Isobel

2009-01-01

Under the editorship of Oscar Wilde, the "Woman's World" exemplified the popular dissemination of Hellenism through periodical culture. Addressing topics such as marriage, politics, and education in relation to the lives of women in the ancient world, the magazine offered an unfamiliar version of the reception of ancient Greece and Rome in late-Victorian aestheticism, one that was accessible to a wide readership because it was often based on images rather than texts. The classical scholar Jane Ellen Harrison addressed herself to this audience of women readers, discussing the similarities between modern collegiate life and the "woman's world" that enabled Sappho to flourish in ancient Greece. The "Woman's World" thus questions gender stereotypes by juxtaposing ancient and modern women, implicitly endorsing varied models of womanhood.

A default Bayesian hypothesis test for mediation.

Science.gov (United States)

Nuijten, Michèle B; Wetzels, Ruud; Matzke, Dora; Dolan, Conor V; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan

2015-03-01

In order to quantify the relationship between multiple variables, researchers often carry out a mediation analysis. In such an analysis, a mediator (e.g., knowledge of a healthy diet) transmits the effect from an independent variable (e.g., classroom instruction on a healthy diet) to a dependent variable (e.g., consumption of fruits and vegetables). Almost all mediation analyses in psychology use frequentist estimation and hypothesis-testing techniques. A recent exception is Yuan and MacKinnon (Psychological Methods, 14, 301-322, 2009), who outlined a Bayesian parameter estimation procedure for mediation analysis. Here we complete the Bayesian alternative to frequentist mediation analysis by specifying a default Bayesian hypothesis test based on the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow approach. We further extend this default Bayesian test by allowing a comparison to directional or one-sided alternatives, using Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques implemented in JAGS. All Bayesian tests are implemented in the R package BayesMed (Nuijten, Wetzels, Matzke, Dolan, & Wagenmakers, 2014).

Defining Astrology in Ancient and Classical History

Science.gov (United States)

Campion, Nicholas

2015-05-01

Astrology in the ancient and classical worlds can be partly defined by its role, and partly by the way in which scholars spoke about it. The problem is complicated by the fact that the word is Greek - it has no Babylonian or Egyptian cognates - and even in Greece it was interchangeable with its cousin, 'astronomy'. Yet if we are to understand the role of the sky, stars and planets in culture, debates about the nature of ancient astrology, by both classical and modern scholars, must be taken into account. This talk will consider modern scholars' typologies of ancient astrology, together with ancient debates from Cicero in the 1st century BC, to Plotinus (204/5-270 AD) and Isidore of Seville (c. 560 - 4 April 636). It will consider the implications for our understanding of astronomy's role in culture, and conclude that in the classical period astrology may be best understood through its diversity and allegiance to competing philosophies, and that its functions were therefore similarly varied.

Will Passive Protection Save Congo Forests?

Science.gov (United States)

Galford, Gillian L.; Soares-Filho, Britaldo S.; Sonter, Laura J.; Laporte, Nadine

2015-01-01

Central Africa’s tropical forests are among the world’s largest carbon reserves. Historically, they have experienced low rates of deforestation. Pressures to clear land are increasing due to development of infrastructure and livelihoods, foreign investment in agriculture, and shifting land use management, particularly in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). The DRC contains the greatest area of intact African forests. These store approximately 22 billion tons of carbon in aboveground live biomass, yet only 10% are protected. Can the status quo of passive protection — forest management that is low or nonexistent — ensure the preservation of this forest and its carbon? We have developed the SimCongo model to simulate changes in land cover and land use based on theorized policy scenarios from 2010 to 2050. Three scenarios were examined: the first (Historical Trends) assumes passive forest protection; the next (Conservation) posits active protection of forests and activation of the national REDD+ action plan, and the last (Agricultural Development) assumes increased agricultural activities in forested land with concomitant increased deforestation. SimCongo is a cellular automata model based on Bayesian statistical methods tailored for the DRC, built with the Dinamica-EGO platform. The model is parameterized and validated with deforestation observations from the past and runs the scenarios from 2010 through 2050 with a yearly time step. We estimate the Historical Trends trajectory will result in average emissions of 139 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s, a 15% increase over current emissions. The Conservation scenario would result in 58% less clearing than Historical Trends and would conserve carbon-dense forest and woodland savanna areas. The Agricultural Development scenario leads to emissions of 212 million t CO2 year-1 by the 2040s. These scenarios are heuristic examples of policy’s influence on forest conservation and carbon storage. Our results

A Bayesian model for binary Markov chains

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Belkheir Essebbar

2004-02-01

Full Text Available This note is concerned with Bayesian estimation of the transition probabilities of a binary Markov chain observed from heterogeneous individuals. The model is founded on the Jeffreys' prior which allows for transition probabilities to be correlated. The Bayesian estimator is approximated by means of Monte Carlo Markov chain (MCMC techniques. The performance of the Bayesian estimates is illustrated by analyzing a small simulated data set.

The fingerprint element analysis on provenance of ancient chinese Jun porcelain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Zhengyao; Chen Songhua; Wang Jie; Huang Zhongxiang; Jia Xiuqin; Han Song

1997-01-01

Forty-three samples of ancient Jun porcelains and so on were chosen. Neutron activation analysis (NAA) was used to measure the 36 trace elements in every sample. Seven elements were chosen as the 'fingerprint elements'. The provenance of the glazes and bodies of ancient Chinese Jun porcelain were investigated by the fingerprint element analysis method. The result shows that although the ancient Chinese Jun porcelain samples have been leapt over six hundred years, and glaze colors are utterly different and are from many different kilns, there are long term, stable and same mainly raw material source. The near provenance relation between ancient Jun porcelain and ancient Ru porcelain is preliminarily analyzed. A few modern Jun porcelains approximate from ancient Jun porcelains, the majority become estranged from ancient Jun porcelain

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre; Rumí, Rafael

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian Networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability-techniques (like fault trees...... decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability....

Litter quality effects of beech and hornbeam on undergrowth species diversity in Luxembourg forests on limestone and decalcified marl

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kooijman, A.M.

2010-01-01

Question: Do beech and hornbeam differ in undergrowth species diversity, and could these differences be explained by mass of the organic layer, pH or soil moisture? Could species richness under beech and hornbeam be explained by differences in N dynamics? Location: Ancient forests dominated by beech

An integrated airborne laser scanning approach to forest management and cultural heritage issues: a case study at Porolissum, Romania

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anamaria Roman

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper explores the opportunities that arise where forest ecosystem management and cultural heritage monuments protection converge. The case study area for our analysis was the landscape surrounding the Moigrad-Porolissum Archaeological site. We emphasize that an Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS or LiDAR-Light Detection and Ranging approach to both forest management and cultural heritage conservation is an outstanding tool, assisting policy-makers and conservationists in decision making for integrated planning and management of the environment. LiDAR-derived surface models enabled a synoptic, never-seen-before view of the ancient Roman frontiers defensive systems while also revealing the present forest road network. The thorough and accurate road inventory data are very useful for updating and modifying forest base maps and registries and also for identifying the priority sectors for archaeological discharge. The ability to identify and determine optimal routes for forest management and to locate previously unmapped ancient archaeological remains aids in reducing costs and creating operational efficiencies as well as in complying with the legislation and avoiding infringements. The potential of LiDAR to demonstrate the long-term and comprehensive human impact on wooded areas is discussed. We identified a significant historical landscape change, consisting of a deforestation period, spanning over more than 160 years, during the Roman Period in Dacia (106-271 AD. The transdisciplinary analysis of the LiDAR data provides the base for combining knowledge from archaeology, forestry and environmental history in order to achieve a thorough analysis of the landscape changes and history. In the “nature versus culture” dichotomy, the landscape, outfield areas and forests are primarily perceived as nature, while in reality they are often heavily marked by human impact. LiDAR offers an efficient method for broadening our knowledge regarding the

Bayesian theory and applications

CERN Document Server

Dellaportas, Petros; Polson, Nicholas G; Stephens, David A

2013-01-01

The development of hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques forms one of the most profound advances in Bayesian analysis since the 1970s and provides the basis for advances in virtually all areas of applied and theoretical Bayesian statistics. This volume guides the reader along a statistical journey that begins with the basic structure of Bayesian theory, and then provides details on most of the past and present advances in this field. The book has a unique format. There is an explanatory chapter devoted to each conceptual advance followed by journal-style chapters that provide applications or further advances on the concept. Thus, the volume is both a textbook and a compendium of papers covering a vast range of topics. It is appropriate for a well-informed novice interested in understanding the basic approach, methods and recent applications. Because of its advanced chapters and recent work, it is also appropriate for a more mature reader interested in recent applications and devel...

Microanalysis study on ancient Wiangkalong Pottery

Science.gov (United States)

Won-in, K.; Tancharakorn, S.; Dararutana, P.

2017-09-01

Wiangkalong is one of major ceramic production cities in northern of Thailand, once colonized by the ancient Lanna Kingdom (1290 A.D.). Ancient Wiangkalong potteries were produced with shapes and designs as similar as those of the Chinese Yuan and Ming Dynasties. Due to the complex nature of materials and objects, extremely sensitive, spatially resolved, multi-elemental and versatile analytical instruments using non-destructive and non-sampling methods to analyze theirs composition are need. In this work, micro-beam X-ray fluorescence spectroscopy based on synchrotron radiation was firstly used to characterize the elemental composition of the ancient Wiangkalong pottery. The results showed the variations in elemental composition of the body matrix, the glaze and the underglaze painting, such as K, Ca, Ti, V, Cr, Mn and Fe.

Assimilation of repeated woody biomass observations constrains decadal ecosystem carbon cycle uncertainty in aggrading forests

Science.gov (United States)

Smallman, T. L.; Exbrayat, J.-F.; Mencuccini, M.; Bloom, A. A.; Williams, M.

2017-03-01

Forest carbon sink strengths are governed by plant growth, mineralization of dead organic matter, and disturbance. Across landscapes, remote sensing can provide information about aboveground states of forests and this information can be linked to models to estimate carbon cycling in forests close to steady state. For aggrading forests this approach is more challenging and has not been demonstrated. Here we apply a Bayesian approach, linking a simple model to a range of data, to evaluate their information content, for two aggrading forests. We compare high information content analyses using local observations with retrievals using progressively sparser remotely sensed information (repeated, single, and no woody biomass observations). The net biome productivity of both forests is constrained to be a net sink with litter dynamics at one forest, while at the second forest total dead organic matter estimates are within observational uncertainty. The uncertainty of retrieved ecosystem traits in the repeated biomass analysis is reduced by up to 50% compared to analyses with less biomass information. This study quantifies the importance of repeated woody observations in constraining the dynamics of both wood and dead organic matter, highlighting the benefit of proposed remote sensing missions.

Universal Darwinism As a Process of Bayesian Inference.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, John O

2016-01-01

Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes' Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus, natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians). As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational) free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an "experiment" in the external world environment, and the results of that "experiment" or the "surprise" entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the "experiment." Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of "surprise" experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Treating fossils as terminal taxa in divergence time estimation reveals ancient vicariance patterns in the palpimanoid spiders.

Science.gov (United States)

Wood, Hannah Marie; Matzke, Nicholas J; Gillespie, Rosemary G; Griswold, Charles E

2013-03-01

Incorporation of fossils into biogeographic studies can have a profound effect on the conclusions that result, particularly when fossil ranges are nonoverlapping with extant ranges. This is the case in archaeid spiders, where there are known fossils from the Northern Hemisphere, yet all living members are restricted to the Southern Hemisphere. To better understand the biogeographic patterns of archaeid spiders and their palpimanoid relatives, we estimate a dated phylogeny using a relaxed clock on a combined molecular and morphological data set. Dating information is compared with treating the archaeid fossil taxa as both node calibrations and as noncontemporaneous terminal tips, both with and without additional calibration points. Estimation of ancestral biogeographic ranges is then performed, using likelihood and Bayesian methods to take into account uncertainty in phylogeny and in dating. We find that treating the fossils as terminal tips within a Bayesian framework, as opposed to dating the phylogeny based only on molecular data with the dates coming from node calibrations, removes the subjectivity involved in assigning priors, which has not been possible with previous methods. Our analyses suggest that the diversification of the northern and southern archaeid lineages was congruent with the breakup of Pangaea into Laurasia and Gondwanaland. This analysis provides a rare example, and perhaps the most strongly supported, where a dated phylogeny confirms a biogeographical hypothesis based on vicariance due to the breakup of the ancient continental plates.

Modern and ancient red fox (Vulpes vulpes in Europe show an unusual lack of geographical and temporal structuring, and differing responses within the carnivores to historical climatic change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thomas Jessica A

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Despite phylogeographical patterns being well characterised in a large number of species, and generalised patterns emerging, the carnivores do not all appear to show consistent trends. While some species tend to fit with standard theoretical phylogeographic expectations (e.g. bears, others show little obvious modern phylogeographic structure (e.g. wolves. In this study we briefly review these studies, and present a new phylogeographical study of the red fox (Vulpes vulpes throughout Europe, using a combination of ancient DNA sequences obtained from museum specimens, and modern sequences collated from GenBank. We used cytochrome b (250 bp and the mitochondrial control region (268 bp to elucidate both current and historical phylogeographical patterning. Results We found evidence for slight isolation by distance in modern populations, as well as differentiation associated with time, both of which can likely be attributed to random genetic drift. Despite high sequence diversity (11.2% cytochrome b, 16.4% control region, no evidence for spatial structure (from Bayesian trees is found either in modern samples or ancient samples for either gene, and Bayesian skyline plots suggested little change in the effective population size over the past 40,000 years. Conclusions It is probable that the high dispersal ability and adaptability of the red fox has contributed to the lack of observable differentiation, which appears to have remained consistent over tens of thousands of years. Generalised patterns of how animals are thought to have responded to historical climatic change are not necessarily valid for all species, and so understanding the differences between species will be critical for predicting how species will be affected by future climatic change.

Bayesian methods to estimate urban growth potential

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Jordan W.; Smart, Lindsey S.; Dorning, Monica; Dupéy, Lauren Nicole; Méley, Andréanne; Meentemeyer, Ross K.

2017-01-01

Urban growth often influences the production of ecosystem services. The impacts of urbanization on landscapes can subsequently affect landowners’ perceptions, values and decisions regarding their land. Within land-use and land-change research, very few models of dynamic landscape-scale processes like urbanization incorporate empirically-grounded landowner decision-making processes. Very little attention has focused on the heterogeneous decision-making processes that aggregate to influence broader-scale patterns of urbanization. We examine the land-use tradeoffs faced by individual landowners in one of the United States’ most rapidly urbanizing regions − the urban area surrounding Charlotte, North Carolina. We focus on the land-use decisions of non-industrial private forest owners located across the region’s development gradient. A discrete choice experiment is used to determine the critical factors influencing individual forest owners’ intent to sell their undeveloped properties across a series of experimentally varied scenarios of urban growth. Data are analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian approach. The estimates derived from the survey data are used to modify a spatially-explicit trend-based urban development potential model, derived from remotely-sensed imagery and observed changes in the region’s socioeconomic and infrastructural characteristics between 2000 and 2011. This modeling approach combines the theoretical underpinnings of behavioral economics with spatiotemporal data describing a region’s historical development patterns. By integrating empirical social preference data into spatially-explicit urban growth models, we begin to more realistically capture processes as well as patterns that drive the location, magnitude and rates of urban growth.

Daniel Goodman’s empirical approach to Bayesian statistics

Science.gov (United States)

Gerrodette, Tim; Ward, Eric; Taylor, Rebecca L.; Schwarz, Lisa K.; Eguchi, Tomoharu; Wade, Paul; Himes Boor, Gina

2016-01-01

Bayesian statistics, in contrast to classical statistics, uses probability to represent uncertainty about the state of knowledge. Bayesian statistics has often been associated with the idea that knowledge is subjective and that a probability distribution represents a personal degree of belief. Dr. Daniel Goodman considered this viewpoint problematic for issues of public policy. He sought to ground his Bayesian approach in data, and advocated the construction of a prior as an empirical histogram of “similar” cases. In this way, the posterior distribution that results from a Bayesian analysis combined comparable previous data with case-specific current data, using Bayes’ formula. Goodman championed such a data-based approach, but he acknowledged that it was difficult in practice. If based on a true representation of our knowledge and uncertainty, Goodman argued that risk assessment and decision-making could be an exact science, despite the uncertainties. In his view, Bayesian statistics is a critical component of this science because a Bayesian analysis produces the probabilities of future outcomes. Indeed, Goodman maintained that the Bayesian machinery, following the rules of conditional probability, offered the best legitimate inference from available data. We give an example of an informative prior in a recent study of Steller sea lion spatial use patterns in Alaska.

Legacy of the Ancient World: An Educational Guide. Understanding Ancient Culture through Art at the Tampa Museum of Art.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitelaw, R. Lynn

Among the many contributions made by Ancient Greeks and Romans to contemporary life, are those which influence art, architecture, literature, philosophy, mathematics and science, theater, athletics, religion, and the founding of democracy. The Tampa Museum of Art's classical collection offers a unique opportunity to learn about Ancient Greeks and…

GENERATION OF GEOMETRIC ORNAMENTS IN ANCIENT MOSAIC ART

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

SASS Ludmila

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The paper examines geometrical ornaments from ancient mosaic.We studied the geometric generation by using Computer Aided Graphics for three examples of ancient mosaic: a mosaic of Ancient Corinth, a mosaic of the sacred geometry Flower of Life (exposed in the National Museum of Israel and a mosaic of fortress Masada - Israel. The technique of drawing ancient mosaic is recomposed using computer aided graphics. A program has been developed that can help draw a petal-type arc (semicircle of the mosaic that is the Byzantine church of Masada. Based on these mosaics, other variants of aesthetic images in monochrome or black and white and polychrome were drawn, all of which can be materialized in decorative art to embellish various surfaces: walls, floors, pools, fountains, etc.

Approximation methods for efficient learning of Bayesian networks

CERN Document Server

Riggelsen, C

2008-01-01

This publication offers and investigates efficient Monte Carlo simulation methods in order to realize a Bayesian approach to approximate learning of Bayesian networks from both complete and incomplete data. For large amounts of incomplete data when Monte Carlo methods are inefficient, approximations are implemented, such that learning remains feasible, albeit non-Bayesian. The topics discussed are: basic concepts about probabilities, graph theory and conditional independence; Bayesian network learning from data; Monte Carlo simulation techniques; and, the concept of incomplete data. In order to provide a coherent treatment of matters, thereby helping the reader to gain a thorough understanding of the whole concept of learning Bayesian networks from (in)complete data, this publication combines in a clarifying way all the issues presented in the papers with previously unpublished work.

Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

Science.gov (United States)

Robin, V V; Sinha, Anindya; Ramakrishnan, Uma

2010-10-13

Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies. We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp) obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species. Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of this region.

Ancient geographical gaps and paleo-climate shape the phylogeography of an endemic bird in the sky islands of southern India.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V V Robin

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Sky islands, formed by the highest reaches of mountain tracts physically isolated from one another, represent one of the biodiversity-rich regions of the world. Comparative studies of geographically isolated populations on such islands can provide valuable insights into the biogeography and evolution of species on these islands. The Western Ghats mountains of southern India form a sky island system, where the relationship between the island structure and the evolution of its species remains virtually unknown despite a few population genetic studies.We investigated how ancient geographic gaps and glacial cycles have partitioned genetic variation in modern populations of a threatened endemic bird, the White-bellied Shortwing Brachypteryx major, across the montane Shola forests on these islands and also inferred its evolutionary history. We used bayesian and maximum likelihood-based phylogenetic and population-genetic analyses on data from three mitochondrial markers and one nuclear marker (totally 2594 bp obtained from 33 White-bellied Shortwing individuals across five islands. Genetic differentiation between populations of the species correlated with the locations of deep valleys in the Western Ghats but not with geographical distance between these populations. All populations revealed demographic histories consistent with population founding and expansion during the Last Glacial Maximum. Given the level of genetic differentiation north and south of the Palghat Gap, we suggest that these populations be considered two different taxonomic species.Our results show that the physiography and paleo-climate of this region historically resulted in multiple glacial refugia that may have subsequently driven the evolutionary history and current population structure of this bird. The first avian genetic study from this biodiversity hotspot, our results provide insights into processes that may have impacted the speciation and evolution of the endemic fauna of

Bayesian community detection

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mørup, Morten; Schmidt, Mikkel N

2012-01-01

Many networks of scientific interest naturally decompose into clusters or communities with comparatively fewer external than internal links; however, current Bayesian models of network communities do not exert this intuitive notion of communities. We formulate a nonparametric Bayesian model...... for community detection consistent with an intuitive definition of communities and present a Markov chain Monte Carlo procedure for inferring the community structure. A Matlab toolbox with the proposed inference procedure is available for download. On synthetic and real networks, our model detects communities...... consistent with ground truth, and on real networks, it outperforms existing approaches in predicting missing links. This suggests that community structure is an important structural property of networks that should be explicitly modeled....

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.

2016-02-13

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

Inverse Problems in a Bayesian Setting

KAUST Repository

Matthies, Hermann G.; Zander, Elmar; Rosić, Bojana V.; Litvinenko, Alexander; Pajonk, Oliver

2016-01-01

In a Bayesian setting, inverse problems and uncertainty quantification (UQ)—the propagation of uncertainty through a computational (forward) model—are strongly connected. In the form of conditional expectation the Bayesian update becomes computationally attractive. We give a detailed account of this approach via conditional approximation, various approximations, and the construction of filters. Together with a functional or spectral approach for the forward UQ there is no need for time-consuming and slowly convergent Monte Carlo sampling. The developed sampling-free non-linear Bayesian update in form of a filter is derived from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. This formulation in general calls for further discretisation to make the computation possible, and we choose a polynomial approximation. After giving details on the actual computation in the framework of functional or spectral approximations, we demonstrate the workings of the algorithm on a number of examples of increasing complexity. At last, we compare the linear and nonlinear Bayesian update in form of a filter on some examples.

Implementing the Bayesian paradigm in risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aven, T.; Kvaloey, J.T.

2002-01-01

The Bayesian paradigm comprises a unified and consistent framework for analyzing and expressing risk. Yet, we see rather few examples of applications where the full Bayesian setting has been adopted with specifications of priors of unknown parameters. In this paper, we discuss some of the practical challenges of implementing Bayesian thinking and methods in risk analysis, emphasizing the introduction of probability models and parameters and associated uncertainty assessments. We conclude that there is a need for a pragmatic view in order to 'successfully' apply the Bayesian approach, such that we can do the assignments of some of the probabilities without adopting the somewhat sophisticated procedure of specifying prior distributions of parameters. A simple risk analysis example is presented to illustrate ideas

Interactive Instruction in Bayesian Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Khan, Azam; Breslav, Simon; Hornbæk, Kasper

2018-01-01

An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction. These pri......An instructional approach is presented to improve human performance in solving Bayesian inference problems. Starting from the original text of the classic Mammography Problem, the textual expression is modified and visualizations are added according to Mayer’s principles of instruction....... These principles concern coherence, personalization, signaling, segmenting, multimedia, spatial contiguity, and pretraining. Principles of self-explanation and interactivity are also applied. Four experiments on the Mammography Problem showed that these principles help participants answer the questions...... that an instructional approach to improving human performance in Bayesian inference is a promising direction....

Genetic diversity among ancient Nordic populations

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Melchior, Linea Cecilie; Lynnerup, Niels; Siegismund, Hans Redlef

2010-01-01

, the success rate varied substantially between sites; the highest rates were obtained with untouched, freshly excavated material, whereas heavy handling, archeological preservation and storage for many years influenced the ability to obtain authentic endogenic DNA. While the nucleotide diversity at two...... the ancient Danes (average 13%) than among extant Danes and Scandinavians ( approximately 2.5%) as well as among other ancient population samples reported. Haplogroup I could therefore have been an ancient Southern Scandinavian type "diluted" by later immigration events. Interestingly, the two Neolithic...... samples (4,200 YBP, Bell Beaker culture) that were typed were haplogroup U4 and U5a, respectively, and the single Bronze Age sample (3,300-3,500 YBP) was haplogroup U4. These two haplogroups have been associated with the Mesolithic populations of Central and Northern Europe. Therefore, at least...

Damage and repair of ancient DNA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Mitchell, David; Willerslev, Eske; Hansen, Anders

2005-01-01

degradation, these studies are limited to species that lived within the past 10(4)-10(5) years (Late Pleistocene), although DNA sequences from 10(6) years have been reported. Ancient DNA (aDNA) has been used to study phylogenetic relationships of protists, fungi, algae, plants, and higher eukaryotes...... such as extinct horses, cave bears, the marsupial wolf, the moa, and Neanderthal. In the past few years, this technology has been extended to the study of infectious disease in ancient Egyptian and South American mummies, the dietary habits of ancient animals, and agricultural practices and population dynamics......, and extensive degradation. In the course of this review, we will discuss the current aDNA literature describing the importance of aDNA studies as they relate to important biological questions and the difficulties associated with extracting useful information from highly degraded and damaged substrates derived...

The Contribution of Traditional Ecological Knowledge and Practices to Forest Management: The Case of Northeast Asia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Seongjun Kim

2017-12-01

Full Text Available This study aims to introduce the potential applicability of traditional ecological knowledge and community forestry in Northeast Asia, including China, Japan, and South Korea. In ancient Northeast Asia, forest policies and practices were based on Fengshui (an old Chinese concept regarding the flow of vital forces, with which forests were managed under community forestry. However, these traditional systems diminished in the twentieth century owing to the decline of traditional livelihood systems and extreme deforestation. Recently, legacies from traditional ecological knowledge and community forestry have been revisited and incorporated into forest policies, laws, and management practices because of growing needs for sustainable forest use in China, Japan, and Korea. This reevaluation of traditional ecological knowledge and community forestry has provided empirical data to help improve forestry systems. Although traditional ecological knowledge and community forestry in Northeast Asia have been scarcely theorized, they play a significant role in modifying forest management practices in the face of socioeconomic changes.

Testing of Alignment Parameters for Ancient Samples: Evaluating and Optimizing Mapping Parameters for Ancient Samples Using the TAPAS Tool

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ulrike H. Taron

2018-03-01

Full Text Available High-throughput sequence data retrieved from ancient or other degraded samples has led to unprecedented insights into the evolutionary history of many species, but the analysis of such sequences also poses specific computational challenges. The most commonly used approach involves mapping sequence reads to a reference genome. However, this process becomes increasingly challenging with an elevated genetic distance between target and reference or with the presence of contaminant sequences with high sequence similarity to the target species. The evaluation and testing of mapping efficiency and stringency are thus paramount for the reliable identification and analysis of ancient sequences. In this paper, we present ‘TAPAS’, (Testing of Alignment Parameters for Ancient Samples, a computational tool that enables the systematic testing of mapping tools for ancient data by simulating sequence data reflecting the properties of an ancient dataset and performing test runs using the mapping software and parameter settings of interest. We showcase TAPAS by using it to assess and improve mapping strategy for a degraded sample from a banded linsang (Prionodon linsang, for which no closely related reference is currently available. This enables a 1.8-fold increase of the number of mapped reads without sacrificing mapping specificity. The increase of mapped reads effectively reduces the need for additional sequencing, thus making more economical use of time, resources, and sample material.

Universal Darwinism as a process of Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John Oberon Campbell

2016-06-01

Full Text Available Many of the mathematical frameworks describing natural selection are equivalent to Bayes’ Theorem, also known as Bayesian updating. By definition, a process of Bayesian Inference is one which involves a Bayesian update, so we may conclude that these frameworks describe natural selection as a process of Bayesian inference. Thus natural selection serves as a counter example to a widely-held interpretation that restricts Bayesian Inference to human mental processes (including the endeavors of statisticians. As Bayesian inference can always be cast in terms of (variational free energy minimization, natural selection can be viewed as comprising two components: a generative model of an ‘experiment’ in the external world environment, and the results of that 'experiment' or the 'surprise' entailed by predicted and actual outcomes of the ‘experiment’. Minimization of free energy implies that the implicit measure of 'surprise' experienced serves to update the generative model in a Bayesian manner. This description closely accords with the mechanisms of generalized Darwinian process proposed both by Dawkins, in terms of replicators and vehicles, and Campbell, in terms of inferential systems. Bayesian inference is an algorithm for the accumulation of evidence-based knowledge. This algorithm is now seen to operate over a wide range of evolutionary processes, including natural selection, the evolution of mental models and cultural evolutionary processes, notably including science itself. The variational principle of free energy minimization may thus serve as a unifying mathematical framework for universal Darwinism, the study of evolutionary processes operating throughout nature.

Bayesian analysis of magnetic island dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Preuss, R.; Maraschek, M.; Zohm, H.; Dose, V.

2003-01-01

We examine a first order differential equation with respect to time used to describe magnetic islands in magnetically confined plasmas. The free parameters of this equation are obtained by employing Bayesian probability theory. Additionally, a typical Bayesian change point is solved in the process of obtaining the data

Moessbauer studies on ancient Jizhon plain Temmoku porcelains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yu Zhengfang; Zheng Yufang; Lin Yongqiang

1994-01-01

Three kinds of ancient Jizhou plain Temmoku wares and their several ware-making raw materials were studied by means of X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Moessbauer spectroscopy. The firing technique of ancient Jizhou Temmoku porcelains is discussed. (orig.)

Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2015-01-01

We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating...... production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time...... rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass...

Tracking down human contamination in ancient human teeth

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sampietro, María Lourdes; Gilbert, M Thomas P; Lao, Oscar

2006-01-01

DNA sequences can be used to support data authenticity is misleading in scenarios where the presence of old contaminant sequences is possible. We argue therefore that the typing of those involved in the manipulation of the ancient human specimens is critical in order to ensure that generated results......DNA contamination arising from the manipulation of ancient calcified tissue samples is a poorly understood, yet fundamental, problem that affects the reliability of ancient DNA (aDNA) studies. We have typed the mitochondrial DNA hypervariable region I of the only 6 people involved in the excavation...

Bayesian ensemble refinement by replica simulations and reweighting

Science.gov (United States)

Hummer, Gerhard; Köfinger, Jürgen

2015-12-01

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be characterized by integrating a wide range of experimental data, including measurements of ensemble-averaged observables. We start from a Bayesian formulation in which the posterior is a functional that ranks different configuration space distributions. By maximizing this posterior, we derive an optimal Bayesian ensemble distribution. For discrete configurations, this optimal distribution is identical to that obtained by the maximum entropy "ensemble refinement of SAXS" (EROS) formulation. Bayesian replica ensemble refinement enhances the sampling of relevant configurations by imposing restraints on averages of observables in coupled replica molecular dynamics simulations. We show that the strength of the restraints should scale linearly with the number of replicas to ensure convergence to the optimal Bayesian result in the limit of infinitely many replicas. In the "Bayesian inference of ensembles" method, we combine the replica and EROS approaches to accelerate the convergence. An adaptive algorithm can be used to sample directly from the optimal ensemble, without replicas. We discuss the incorporation of single-molecule measurements and dynamic observables such as relaxation parameters. The theoretical analysis of different Bayesian ensemble refinement approaches provides a basis for practical applications and a starting point for further investigations.

Detecting Ancient Tuberculosis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Angela M. Gernaey

1998-12-01

Full Text Available Some diseases have played a more significant role in human development than others. Here we describe the results of a trial to diagnose ancient tuberculosis using chemical methods. Palaeo-epidemiological studies of the disease are compromised, but it has become apparent that tuberculosis (TB is a 'population-density dependent' disease. From modern studies, it is also apparent that the prevalence of TB can be used as an indicator of the level of poverty within the studied population. Mid-shaft rib samples from articulated individuals recovered from the former Newcastle Infirmary Burial Ground (1753-1845 AD were examined for mycolic acids that are species-specific for Mycobacterium tuberculosis. The 24% of ribs positive for mycolic acids correlated with the documented 27% tuberculosis prevalence. Mycolic acid biomarkers have the potential to provide an accurate trace of the palaeo-epidemiology of tuberculosis in ancient populations, thereby providing an indication of the overall level of poverty - a useful adjunct for archaeology.

Bayesian Decision Theoretical Framework for Clustering

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Mo

2011-01-01

In this thesis, we establish a novel probabilistic framework for the data clustering problem from the perspective of Bayesian decision theory. The Bayesian decision theory view justifies the important questions: what is a cluster and what a clustering algorithm should optimize. We prove that the spectral clustering (to be specific, the…

Fingerprint elements scatter analysis on ancient chinese Ru porcelains samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Zhengyao; Wang Jie; Chen Xiande

1997-01-01

Altogether 28 samples, mainly including glazes and bodies of ancient Chinese Ru porcelain, were analyzed by NAA technique and the contents of 36 elements were compared. The scatter analysis for nine fingerprint-elements indicates that almost all ancient Chinese Ru porcelain samples had nearly identical and long-term stable source of raw materials although they were fired in different kilns, at varying time and with distinct colors, and moreover, the source of raw materials for modern Ru porcelain seems to approach that for ancient one. The close provenance relation between ancient Jun porcelain and ancient Ru porcelain is also preliminarily verified. The glaze material of Jingdezhen white porcelain is totally different from all other samples. It shows that the former came from a separate source

Deciphering Equine Evolution and Spatial Ancestry with Ancient Data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jónsson, Hákon

High-throughput sequencing has opened ancient DNA research to genomics, revolutionizing the amount of genetic information retrievable from archaeological and paleontological remains. Paleogenomics is still in infancy and requires substantial improvements in computational methods tailored to the s......High-throughput sequencing has opened ancient DNA research to genomics, revolutionizing the amount of genetic information retrievable from archaeological and paleontological remains. Paleogenomics is still in infancy and requires substantial improvements in computational methods tailored...... in the analysis of environmental bacterial sequences, which generally dominate ancient DNA extracts, and in the first pipeline completely devoted to the computational analysis of raw ancient DNA sequences. We then develop a spatially explicit method for determining which extant populations show the greatest...... genetic anity to ancient individuals, which often represents the key question in human paleogenomic projects. We applied the computational infrastructure developed to complete the genomic characterization of extant members of the genus Equus, which is composed of horses, asses and zebras. We sequenced...

Dreams in ancient Greek Medicine.

Science.gov (United States)

Laios, K; Moschos, M M; Koukaki, E; Vasilopoulos, E; Karamanou, M; Kontaxaki, M-I; Androutsos, G

2016-01-01

Dreams preoccupied the Greek and Roman world in antiquity, therefore they had a prominent role in social, philosophical, religious, historical and political life of those times. They were considered as omens and prophetic signs of future events in private and public life, and that was particularly accentuated when elements of actions which took place in the plot of dreams were associated directly or indirectly with real events. This is why it was important to use them in divination, and helped the growth of superstition and folklore believes. Medicine as a science and an anthropocentric art, could not ignore the importance of dreams, having in mind their popularity in antiquity. In ancient Greek medicine dreams can be divided into two basic categories. In the first one -which is related to religious medicine-dreams experienced by religionists are classified, when resorted to great religious sanctuaries such as those of Asclepius (Asclepieia) and Amphiaraos (Amfiaraeia). These dreams were the essential element for healing in this form of religious medicine, because after pilgrims underwent purifications they went to sleep in a special dwelling of the sanctuaries called "enkoimeterion" (Greek: the place to sleep) so that the healing god would come to their dreams either to cure them or to suggest treatment. In ancient Greek literature there are many reports of these experiences, but if there may be phenomena of self-suggestion, or they could be characterized as propaganda messages from the priesthood of each sanctuary for advertising purposes. The other category concerns the references about dreams found in ancient Greek medical literature, where one can find the attempts of ancient Greek physicians to interpret these dreams in a rational way as sings either of a corporal disease or of psychological distress. This second category will be the object of our study. Despite the different ways followed by each ancient Greek physician in order to explain dreams, their

Quantum-Like Representation of Non-Bayesian Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Asano, M.; Basieva, I.; Khrennikov, A.; Ohya, M.; Tanaka, Y.

2013-01-01

This research is related to the problem of "irrational decision making or inference" that have been discussed in cognitive psychology. There are some experimental studies, and these statistical data cannot be described by classical probability theory. The process of decision making generating these data cannot be reduced to the classical Bayesian inference. For this problem, a number of quantum-like coginitive models of decision making was proposed. Our previous work represented in a natural way the classical Bayesian inference in the frame work of quantum mechanics. By using this representation, in this paper, we try to discuss the non-Bayesian (irrational) inference that is biased by effects like the quantum interference. Further, we describe "psychological factor" disturbing "rationality" as an "environment" correlating with the "main system" of usual Bayesian inference.

Correct Bayesian and frequentist intervals are similar

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atwood, C.L.

1986-01-01

This paper argues that Bayesians and frequentists will normally reach numerically similar conclusions, when dealing with vague data or sparse data. It is shown that both statistical methodologies can deal reasonably with vague data. With sparse data, in many important practical cases Bayesian interval estimates and frequentist confidence intervals are approximately equal, although with discrete data the frequentist intervals are somewhat longer. This is not to say that the two methodologies are equally easy to use: The construction of a frequentist confidence interval may require new theoretical development. Bayesians methods typically require numerical integration, perhaps over many variables. Also, Bayesian can easily fall into the trap of over-optimism about their amount of prior knowledge. But in cases where both intervals are found correctly, the two intervals are usually not very different. (orig.)

Using consensus bayesian network to model the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liangdong Hu

Full Text Available Bayesian network is one of the most successful graph models for representing the reactive oxygen species regulatory pathway. With the increasing number of microarray measurements, it is possible to construct the bayesian network from microarray data directly. Although large numbers of bayesian network learning algorithms have been developed, when applying them to learn bayesian networks from microarray data, the accuracies are low due to that the databases they used to learn bayesian networks contain too few microarray data. In this paper, we propose a consensus bayesian network which is constructed by combining bayesian networks from relevant literatures and bayesian networks learned from microarray data. It would have a higher accuracy than the bayesian networks learned from one database. In the experiment, we validated the bayesian network combination algorithm on several classic machine learning databases and used the consensus bayesian network to model the Escherichia coli's ROS pathway.

Bayesian analysis of rare events

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Straub, Daniel, E-mail: straub@tum.de; Papaioannou, Iason; Betz, Wolfgang

2016-06-01

In many areas of engineering and science there is an interest in predicting the probability of rare events, in particular in applications related to safety and security. Increasingly, such predictions are made through computer models of physical systems in an uncertainty quantification framework. Additionally, with advances in IT, monitoring and sensor technology, an increasing amount of data on the performance of the systems is collected. This data can be used to reduce uncertainty, improve the probability estimates and consequently enhance the management of rare events and associated risks. Bayesian analysis is the ideal method to include the data into the probabilistic model. It ensures a consistent probabilistic treatment of uncertainty, which is central in the prediction of rare events, where extrapolation from the domain of observation is common. We present a framework for performing Bayesian updating of rare event probabilities, termed BUS. It is based on a reinterpretation of the classical rejection-sampling approach to Bayesian analysis, which enables the use of established methods for estimating probabilities of rare events. By drawing upon these methods, the framework makes use of their computational efficiency. These methods include the First-Order Reliability Method (FORM), tailored importance sampling (IS) methods and Subset Simulation (SuS). In this contribution, we briefly review these methods in the context of the BUS framework and investigate their applicability to Bayesian analysis of rare events in different settings. We find that, for some applications, FORM can be highly efficient and is surprisingly accurate, enabling Bayesian analysis of rare events with just a few model evaluations. In a general setting, BUS implemented through IS and SuS is more robust and flexible.

Ancient DNA and Forensics Mutual Benefits a Practical Sampling and Laboratory Guide Through a Virtual Ancient DNA Study

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jan Cemper-Kiesslich

2014-09-01

In this review the authors give a general overview on the field of ancient DNA analysis focussing of the potentials and limits, fields of application, requirements for samples, laboratory setup, reaction design and equipment as well as a brief outlook on current developments, future perspectives and potential cross links with associated scientific disciplines. Key words: Human DNA, Ancient DNA, Forensic DNA typing, Molecular archaeology, Application.

CHANT (CHinese ANcient Texts): a comprehensive database of all ancient Chinese texts up to 600 AD

OpenAIRE

Ho, Che Wah

2006-01-01

The CHinese ANcient Texts (CHANT) database is a long-term project which began in 1988 to build up a comprehensive database of all ancient Chinese texts up to the sixth century AD. The project is near completion and the entire database, which includes both traditional and excavated materials, will be released on the CHANT Web site (www.chant.org) in mid-2002. With more than a decade of experience in establishing an electronic Chinese literary database, we have gained much insight useful to the...

Bayesian models a statistical primer for ecologists

CERN Document Server

Hobbs, N Thompson

2015-01-01

Bayesian modeling has become an indispensable tool for ecological research because it is uniquely suited to deal with complexity in a statistically coherent way. This textbook provides a comprehensive and accessible introduction to the latest Bayesian methods-in language ecologists can understand. Unlike other books on the subject, this one emphasizes the principles behind the computations, giving ecologists a big-picture understanding of how to implement this powerful statistical approach. Bayesian Models is an essential primer for non-statisticians. It begins with a definition of probabili

Ancient DNA analysis of dental calculus.

Science.gov (United States)

Weyrich, Laura S; Dobney, Keith; Cooper, Alan

2015-02-01

Dental calculus (calcified tartar or plaque) is today widespread on modern human teeth around the world. A combination of soft starchy foods, changing acidity of the oral environment, genetic pre-disposition, and the absence of dental hygiene all lead to the build-up of microorganisms and food debris on the tooth crown, which eventually calcifies through a complex process of mineralisation. Millions of oral microbes are trapped and preserved within this mineralised matrix, including pathogens associated with the oral cavity and airways, masticated food debris, and other types of extraneous particles that enter the mouth. As a result, archaeologists and anthropologists are increasingly using ancient human dental calculus to explore broad aspects of past human diet and health. Most recently, high-throughput DNA sequencing of ancient dental calculus has provided valuable insights into the evolution of the oral microbiome and shed new light on the impacts of some of the major biocultural transitions on human health throughout history and prehistory. Here, we provide a brief historical overview of archaeological dental calculus research, and discuss the current approaches to ancient DNA sampling and sequencing. Novel applications of ancient DNA from dental calculus are discussed, highlighting the considerable scope of this new research field for evolutionary biology and modern medicine. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Truth Obviousness in Ancient Greek Philosophy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Halyna I. Budz

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The article examines the features of the axiomatic approach to the truth understanding in ancient Greek philosophy. Truth in the works by ancient philosophers has axiomatic essence, basing on divine origin of truth. As the truth has a divine origin, it is in reality. The reality, created by Gods is the solemn reality. Therefore, understanding of reality by man is the display of divine reality, which is true and clever. In of the context of ancient Greek philosophy, to know truth is to know something, existing in reality, in other words, something, truly existing, eternal reality. Consequently, to know truth is it to know the substantial reality base. That’s why the justification of the reality origin is the axiomatic doctrine of truth at the same time, because only fundamental principle “truly” exists and is the truth itself. The idea of fundamental principle in ancient Greek philosophy is the axiom, universal principle, which is the base of reality as a substance from ontological perspective and is realized as the truth from gnosiological perspective. Fundamental principle, as Greeks understand it, coincides with the truth, in other words, reality and thinking are identical. The idea of reality source is the universal criterion of world perception at the same time, in other words, it is the truth, which is perceived axiomatically.

Robust Bayesian detection of unmodelled bursts

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Searle, Antony C; Sutton, Patrick J; Tinto, Massimo; Woan, Graham

2008-01-01

We develop a Bayesian treatment of the problem of detecting unmodelled gravitational wave bursts using the new global network of interferometric detectors. We also compare this Bayesian treatment with existing coherent methods, and demonstrate that the existing methods make implicit assumptions on the distribution of signals that make them sub-optimal for realistic signal populations

BAYESIAN ESTIMATION OF THERMONUCLEAR REACTION RATES

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Iliadis, C.; Anderson, K. S. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3255 (United States); Coc, A. [Centre de Sciences Nucléaires et de Sciences de la Matière (CSNSM), CNRS/IN2P3, Univ. Paris-Sud, Université Paris–Saclay, Bâtiment 104, F-91405 Orsay Campus (France); Timmes, F. X.; Starrfield, S., E-mail: iliadis@unc.edu [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287-1504 (United States)

2016-11-01

The problem of estimating non-resonant astrophysical S -factors and thermonuclear reaction rates, based on measured nuclear cross sections, is of major interest for nuclear energy generation, neutrino physics, and element synthesis. Many different methods have been applied to this problem in the past, almost all of them based on traditional statistics. Bayesian methods, on the other hand, are now in widespread use in the physical sciences. In astronomy, for example, Bayesian statistics is applied to the observation of extrasolar planets, gravitational waves, and Type Ia supernovae. However, nuclear physics, in particular, has been slow to adopt Bayesian methods. We present astrophysical S -factors and reaction rates based on Bayesian statistics. We develop a framework that incorporates robust parameter estimation, systematic effects, and non-Gaussian uncertainties in a consistent manner. The method is applied to the reactions d(p, γ ){sup 3}He, {sup 3}He({sup 3}He,2p){sup 4}He, and {sup 3}He( α , γ ){sup 7}Be, important for deuterium burning, solar neutrinos, and Big Bang nucleosynthesis.

Prior approval: the growth of Bayesian methods in psychology.

Science.gov (United States)

Andrews, Mark; Baguley, Thom

2013-02-01

Within the last few years, Bayesian methods of data analysis in psychology have proliferated. In this paper, we briefly review the history or the Bayesian approach to statistics, and consider the implications that Bayesian methods have for the theory and practice of data analysis in psychology.

Colour Perception in Ancient World

Science.gov (United States)

Nesterov, D. I.; Fedorova, M. Yu

2017-11-01

How did the human thought form the surrounding color information into the persistent semantic images of a mythological, pseudoscientific and religious nature? The concepts associated with colour perception are suggested. The existence of colour environment does not depend on the human consciousness. The colour culture formation is directly related to the level of the human consciousness development and the possibility to influence the worldview and culture. The colour perception of a person goes through the stages similar to the development of colour vision in a child. Like any development, the colour consciousness has undergone stages of growth and decline, evolution and stagnation. The way of life and difficult conditions for existence made their own adjustments to the development of the human perception of the surrounding world. Wars have been both a powerful engine of progress in all spheres of life and a great destructive force demolishing the already created and preserved heritage. The surrounding world has always been interesting for humans, evoked images and fantasies in the consciousness of ancient people. Unusual and inexplicable natural phenomena spawned numerous legends and myths which was reflected in the ancient art and architecture and, accordingly, in a certain manifestation of colour in the human society. The colour perception of the ancient man, his pragmatic, utilitarian attitude to colour is considered as well as the influence of dependence on external conditions of existence and their reflection in the colour culture of antiquity. “Natural Science” conducts research in the field of the colour nature and their authorial interpretation of the Hellenic period. Several authorial concepts of the ancient world have been considered.

Can a significance test be genuinely Bayesian?

OpenAIRE

Pereira, Carlos A. de B.; Stern, Julio Michael; Wechsler, Sergio

2008-01-01

The Full Bayesian Significance Test, FBST, is extensively reviewed. Its test statistic, a genuine Bayesian measure of evidence, is discussed in detail. Its behavior in some problems of statistical inference like testing for independence in contingency tables is discussed.

Plasmodium vivax populations revisited: mitochondrial genomes of temperate strains in Asia suggest ancient population expansion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Miao Miao

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Plasmodium vivax is the most widely distributed human malaria parasite outside of Africa, and its range extends well into the temperate zones. Previous studies provided evidence for vivax population differentiation, but temperate vivax parasites were not well represented in these analyses. Here we address this deficit by using complete mitochondrial (mt genome sequences to elucidate the broad genetic diversity and population structure of P. vivax from temperate regions in East and Southeast Asia. Results From the complete mtDNA sequences of 99 clinical samples collected in China, Myanmar and Korea, a total of 30 different haplotypes were identified from 26 polymorphic sites. Significant differentiation between different East and Southeast Asian parasite populations was observed except for the comparison between populations from Korea and southern China. Haplotype patterns and structure diversity analysis showed coexistence of two different groups in East Asia, which were genetically related to the Southeast Asian population and Myanmar population, respectively. The demographic history of P. vivax, examined using neutrality tests and mismatch distribution analyses, revealed population expansion events across the entire P. vivax range and the Myanmar population. Bayesian skyline analysis further supported the occurrence of ancient P. vivax population expansion. Conclusions This study provided further resolution of the population structure and evolution of P. vivax, especially in temperate/warm-temperate endemic areas of Asia. The results revealed divergence of the P. vivax populations in temperate regions of China and Korea from other populations. Multiple analyses confirmed ancient population expansion of this parasite. The extensive genetic diversity of the P. vivax populations is consistent with phenotypic plasticity of the parasites, which has implications for malaria control.

Bayesian image restoration, using configurations

OpenAIRE

Thorarinsdottir, Thordis

2006-01-01

In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the re...

Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kjærulff, Uffe Bro; Madsen, Anders Læsø

 Probabilistic networks, also known as Bayesian networks and influence diagrams, have become one of the most promising technologies in the area of applied artificial intelligence, offering intuitive, efficient, and reliable methods for diagnosis, prediction, decision making, classification......, troubleshooting, and data mining under uncertainty. Bayesian Networks and Influence Diagrams: A Guide to Construction and Analysis provides a comprehensive guide for practitioners who wish to understand, construct, and analyze intelligent systems for decision support based on probabilistic networks. Intended...

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Chavira, Mark; Darwiche, Adnan

2004-01-01

We describe a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available \\primula\\ tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference by evaluating...

Dacic Ancient Astronomical Research in Sarmizegetuza

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Emanuel George Oprea

2015-11-01

Full Text Available The actual Romanian territory belongs to Carpatho-Danubian Space and to Ancient Europe. The Ancient European Society was a vast cultural entity based on a theocratic, matriarchal society, peaceful and art creating.Temples of Sarmizegetusa have given rise to several theories over time, proven by historians with the most diverse arguments. The largest complex of temples and sanctuaries was founded in Sarmizegetusa Regia, the Dacian’s main fortress and ancient capital of Dacia in the time of King Decebalus. The mysterious form of settlements has led researchers to the conclusion that the locations were astronomical observation shrines. Among the places of Dacian worship in Orastie Mountains the most impressive is the Great Circular Sanctuary, used to perform some celestial observations, and also as original solar calendar. This paper had the purpose to re-discover the Dacian Civilization and Dacian cosmogony based on the accumulated knowledge upon our country’s past.

Did the ancient egyptians discover Algol?

Science.gov (United States)

Jetsu, L.; Porceddu, S.; Porceddu, S.; Lyytinen, J.; Kajatkari, P.; Markkanen, T.; Toivari-Viitala, J.

2013-02-01

Fabritius discovered the first variable star, Mira, in 1596. Holwarda determined the 11 months period of Mira in 1638. Montanari discovered the next variable star, Algol, in 1669. Its period, 2.867 days, was determined by Goodricke (178). Algol was associated with demon-like creatures, "Gorgon" in ancient Greek and "ghoul" in ancient Arab mythology. This indicates that its variability was discovered much before 1669 (Wilk 1996), but this mythological evidence is ambiguous (Davis 1975). For thousands of years, the Ancient Egyptian Scribes (AES) observed stars for timekeeping in a region, where there are nearly 300 clear nights a year. We discovered a significant periodicity of 2.850 days in their calendar for lucky and unlucky days dated to 1224 BC, "the Cairo Calendar". Several astrophysical and astronomical tests supported our conclusion that this was the period of Algol three millennia ago. The "ghoulish habits" of Algol could explain this 0.017 days period increase (Battersby 2012).

Variable strength of forest stand attributes and weather conditions on the questing activity of Ixodes ricinus ticks over years in managed forests.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ralf Lauterbach

Full Text Available Given the ever-increasing human impact through land use and climate change on the environment, we crucially need to achieve a better understanding of those factors that influence the questing activity of ixodid ticks, a major disease-transmitting vector in temperate forests. We investigated variation in the relative questing nymph densities of Ixodes ricinus in differently managed forest types for three years (2008-2010 in SW Germany by drag sampling. We used a hierarchical Bayesian modeling approach to examine the relative effects of habitat and weather and to consider possible nested structures of habitat and climate forces. The questing activity of nymphs was considerably larger in young forest successional stages of thicket compared with pole wood and timber stages. Questing nymph density increased markedly with milder winter temperatures. Generally, the relative strength of the various environmental forces on questing nymph density differed across years. In particular, winter temperature had a negative effect on tick activity across sites in 2008 in contrast to the overall effect of temperature across years. Our results suggest that forest management practices have important impacts on questing nymph density. Variable weather conditions, however, might override the effects of forest management practices on the fluctuations and dynamics of tick populations and activity over years, in particular, the preceding winter temperatures. Therefore, robust predictions and the detection of possible interactions and nested structures of habitat and climate forces can only be quantified through the collection of long-term data. Such data are particularly important with regard to future scenarios of forest management and climate warming.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Science.gov (United States)

Jesus, J. F.; Valentim, R.; Andrade-Oliveira, F.

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3αH0 model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Bayesian analysis of CCDM models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jesus, J.F. [Universidade Estadual Paulista (Unesp), Câmpus Experimental de Itapeva, Rua Geraldo Alckmin 519, Vila N. Sra. de Fátima, Itapeva, SP, 18409-010 Brazil (Brazil); Valentim, R. [Departamento de Física, Instituto de Ciências Ambientais, Químicas e Farmacêuticas—ICAQF, Universidade Federal de São Paulo (UNIFESP), Unidade José Alencar, Rua São Nicolau No. 210, Diadema, SP, 09913-030 Brazil (Brazil); Andrade-Oliveira, F., E-mail: jfjesus@itapeva.unesp.br, E-mail: valentim.rodolfo@unifesp.br, E-mail: felipe.oliveira@port.ac.uk [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation—University of Portsmouth, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX United Kingdom (United Kingdom)

2017-09-01

Creation of Cold Dark Matter (CCDM), in the context of Einstein Field Equations, produces a negative pressure term which can be used to explain the accelerated expansion of the Universe. In this work we tested six different spatially flat models for matter creation using statistical criteria, in light of SNe Ia data: Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) and Bayesian Evidence (BE). These criteria allow to compare models considering goodness of fit and number of free parameters, penalizing excess of complexity. We find that JO model is slightly favoured over LJO/ΛCDM model, however, neither of these, nor Γ = 3α H {sub 0} model can be discarded from the current analysis. Three other scenarios are discarded either because poor fitting or because of the excess of free parameters. A method of increasing Bayesian evidence through reparameterization in order to reducing parameter degeneracy is also developed.

Sparse Event Modeling with Hierarchical Bayesian Kernel Methods

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-05

SECURITY CLASSIFICATION OF: The research objective of this proposal was to develop a predictive Bayesian kernel approach to model count data based on...several predictive variables. Such an approach, which we refer to as the Poisson Bayesian kernel model, is able to model the rate of occurrence of... kernel methods made use of: (i) the Bayesian property of improving predictive accuracy as data are dynamically obtained, and (ii) the kernel function

Bayesian Inference for Functional Dynamics Exploring in fMRI Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xuan Guo

2016-01-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to review state-of-the-art Bayesian-inference-based methods applied to functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI data. Particularly, we focus on one specific long-standing challenge in the computational modeling of fMRI datasets: how to effectively explore typical functional interactions from fMRI time series and the corresponding boundaries of temporal segments. Bayesian inference is a method of statistical inference which has been shown to be a powerful tool to encode dependence relationships among the variables with uncertainty. Here we provide an introduction to a group of Bayesian-inference-based methods for fMRI data analysis, which were designed to detect magnitude or functional connectivity change points and to infer their functional interaction patterns based on corresponding temporal boundaries. We also provide a comparison of three popular Bayesian models, that is, Bayesian Magnitude Change Point Model (BMCPM, Bayesian Connectivity Change Point Model (BCCPM, and Dynamic Bayesian Variable Partition Model (DBVPM, and give a summary of their applications. We envision that more delicate Bayesian inference models will be emerging and play increasingly important roles in modeling brain functions in the years to come.

Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Adam, J.; Adamova, D.; Aggarwal, M. M.; Rinella, G. Aglieri; Agnello, M.; Agrawal, N.; Ahammed, Z.; Ahn, S. U.; Aiola, S.; Akindinov, A.; Alam, S. N.; Albuquerque, D. S. D.; Aleksandrov, D.; Alessandro, B.; Alexandre, D.; Alfaro Molina, R.; Alici, A.; Alkin, A.; Almaraz, J. R. M.; Alme, J.; Alt, T.; Altinpinar, S.; Altsybeev, I.; Alves Garcia Prado, C.; Andrei, C.; Andronic, A.; Anguelov, V.; Anticic, T.; Antinori, F.; Antonioli, P.; Aphecetche, L.; Appelshaeuser, H.; Arcelli, S.; Arnaldi, R.; Arnold, O. W.; Arsene, I. C.; Arslandok, M.; Audurier, B.; Augustinus, A.; Averbeck, R.; Azmi, M. D.; Badala, A.; Baek, Y. W.; Bagnasco, S.; Bailhache, R.; Bala, R.; Balasubramanian, S.; Baldisseri, A.; Baral, R. C.; Barbano, A. M.; Barbera, R.; Barile, F.; Barnafoeldi, G. G.; Barnby, L. S.; Barret, V.; Bartalini, P.; Barth, K.; Bartke, J.; Bartsch, E.; Basile, M.; Bastid, N.; Bathen, B.; Batigne, G.; Camejo, A. Batista; Batyunya, B.; Batzing, P. C.; Bearden, I. G.; Beck, H.; Bedda, C.; Behera, N. K.; Belikov, I.; Bellini, F.; Bello Martinez, H.; Bellwied, R.; Belmont, R.; Belmont-Moreno, E.; Belyaev, V.; Benacek, P.; Bencedi, G.; Beole, S.; Berceanu, I.; Bercuci, A.; Berdnikov, Y.; Berenyi, D.; Bertens, R. A.; Berzano, D.; Betev, L.; Bhasin, A.; Bhat, I. R.; Bhati, A. K.; Bhattacharjee, B.; Bhom, J.; Bianchi, L.; Bianchi, N.; Bianchin, C.; Bielcik, J.; Bielcikova, J.; Bilandzic, A.; Biro, G.; Biswas, R.; Biswas, S.; Bjelogrlic, S.; Blair, J. T.; Blau, D.; Blume, C.; Bock, F.; Bogdanov, A.; Boggild, H.; Boldizsar, L.; Bombara, M.; Book, J.; Borel, H.; Borissov, A.; Borri, M.; Bossu, F.; Botta, E.; Bourjau, C.; Braun-Munzinger, P.; Bregant, M.; Breitner, T.; Broker, T. A.; Browning, T. A.; Broz, M.; Brucken, E. J.; Bruna, E.; Bruno, G. E.; Budnikov, D.; Buesching, H.; Bufalino, S.; Buncic, P.; Busch, O.; Buthelezi, Z.; Butt, J. B.; Buxton, J. T.; Cabala, J.; Caffarri, D.; Cai, X.; Caines, H.; Diaz, L. Calero; Caliva, A.; Calvo Villar, E.; Camerini, P.; Carena, F.; Carena, W.; Carnesecchi, F.; Castellanos, J. Castillo; Castro, A. J.; Casula, E. A. R.; Sanchez, C. Ceballos; Cepila, J.; Cerello, P.; Cerkala, J.; Chang, B.; Chapeland, S.; Chartier, M.; Charvet, J. L.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chattopadhyay, S.; Chauvin, A.; Chelnokov, V.; Cherney, M.; Cheshkov, C.; Cheynis, B.; Barroso, V. Chibante; Chinellato, D. D.; Cho, S.; Chochula, P.; Choi, K.; Chojnacki, M.; Choudhury, S.; Christakoglou, P.; Christensen, C. H.; Christiansen, P.; Chujo, T.; Cicalo, C.; Cifarelli, L.; Cindolo, F.; Cleymans, J.; Colamaria, F.; Colella, D.; Collu, A.; Colocci, M.; Balbastre, G. Conesa; del Valle, Z. Conesa; Connors, M. E.; Contreras, J. G.; Cormier, T. M.; Morales, Y. Corrales; Cortes Maldonado, I.; Cortese, P.; Cosentino, M. R.; Costa, F.; Crochet, P.; Cruz Albino, R.; Cuautle, E.; Cunqueiro, L.; Dahms, T.; Dainese, A.; Danisch, M. C.; Danu, A.; Das, I.; Das, S.; Dash, A.; Dash, S.; De, S.; De Caro, A.; de Cataldo, G.; de Conti, C.; de Cuveland, J.; De Falco, A.; De Gruttola, D.; De Marco, N.; De Pasquale, S.; Deisting, A.; Deloff, A.; Denes, E.; Deplano, C.; Dhankher, P.; Di Bari, D.; Di Mauro, A.; Di Nezza, P.; Corchero, M. A. Diaz; Dietel, T.; Dillenseger, P.; Divia, R.; Djuvsland, O.; Dobrin, A.; Gimenez, D. Domenicis; Doenigus, B.; Dordic, O.; Drozhzhova, T.; Dubey, A. K.; Dubla, A.; Ducroux, L.; Dupieux, P.; Ehlers, R. J.; Elia, D.; Endress, E.; Engel, H.; Epple, E.; Erazmus, B.; Erdemir, I.; Erhardt, F.; Espagnon, B.; Estienne, M.; Esumi, S.; Eum, J.; Evans, D.; Evdokimov, S.; Eyyubova, G.; Fabbietti, L.; Fabris, D.; Faivre, J.; Fantoni, A.; Fasel, M.; Feldkamp, L.; Feliciello, A.; Feofilov, G.; Ferencei, J.; Fernandez Tellez, A.; Ferreiro, E. G.; Ferretti, A.; Festanti, A.; Feuillard, V. J. G.; Figiel, J.; Figueredo, M. A. S.; Filchagin, S.; Finogeev, D.; Fionda, F. M.; Fiore, E. M.; Fleck, M. G.; Floris, M.; Foertsch, S.; Foka, P.; Fokin, S.; Fragiacomo, E.; Francescon, A.; Frankenfeld, U.; Fronze, G. G.; Fuchs, U.; Furget, C.; Furs, A.; Girard, M. Fusco; Gaardhoje, J. J.; Gagliardi, M.; Gago, A. M.; Gallio, M.; Gangadharan, D. R.; Ganoti, P.; Gao, C.; Garabatos, C.; Garcia-Solis, E.; Gargiulo, C.; Gasik, P.; Gauger, E. F.; Germain, M.; Gheata, A.; Gheata, M.; Gianotti, P.; Giubellino, P.; Giubilato, P.; Gladysz-Dziadus, E.; Glaessel, P.; Gomez Coral, D. M.; Ramirez, A. Gomez; Gonzalez, A. S.; Gonzalez, V.; Gonzalez-Zamora, P.; Gorbunov, S.; Goerlich, L.; Gotovac, S.; Grabski, V.; Grachov, O. A.; Graczykowski, L. K.; Graham, K. L.; Grelli, A.; Grigoras, A.; Grigoras, C.; Grigoriev, V.; Grigoryan, A.; Grigoryan, S.; Grinyov, B.; Grion, N.; Gronefeld, J. M.; Grosse-Oetringhaus, J. F.; Grosso, R.; Guber, F.; Guernane, R.; Guerzoni, B.; Gulbrandsen, K.; Gunji, T.; Gupta, A.; Haake, R.; Haaland, O.; Hadjidakis, C.; Haiduc, M.; Hamagaki, H.; Hamar, G.; Hamon, J. C.; Harris, J. W.; Harton, A.; Hatzifotiadou, D.; Hayashi, S.; Heckel, S. T.; Hellbaer, E.; Helstrup, H.; Herghelegiu, A.; Herrera Corral, G.; Hess, B. A.; Hetland, K. F.; Hillemanns, H.; Hippolyte, B.; Horak, D.; Hosokawa, R.; Hristov, P.; Humanic, T. J.; Hussain, N.; Hussain, T.; Hutter, D.; Hwang, D. S.; Ilkaev, R.; Inaba, M.; Incani, E.; Ippolitov, M.; Irfan, M.; Ivanov, M.; Ivanov, V.; Izucheev, V.; Jacazio, N.; Jadhav, M. B.; Jadlovska, S.; Jadlovsky, J.; Jahnke, C.; Jakubowska, M. J.; Jang, H. J.; Janik, M. A.; Jayarathna, P. H. S. Y.; Jena, C.; Jena, S.; Bustamante, R. T. Jimenez; Jones, P. G.; Jusko, A.; Kalinak, P.; Kalweit, A.; Kamin, J.; Kaplin, V.; Kar, S.; Uysal, A. Karasu; Karavichev, O.; Karavicheva, T.; Karayan, L.; Karpechev, E.; Kebschull, U.; Keidel, R.; Keijdener, D. L. D.; Keil, M.; Khan, M. Mohisin; Khan, P.; Khan, S. A.; Khanzadeev, A.; Kharlov, Y.; Kileng, B.; Kim, D. W.; Kim, D. J.; Kim, D.; Kim, J. S.; Kim, M.; Kim, T.; Kirsch, S.; Kisel, I.; Kiselev, S.; Kisiel, A.; Kiss, G.; Klay, J. L.; Klein, C.; Klein-Boesing, C.; Klewin, S.; Kluge, A.; Knichel, M. L.; Knospe, A. G.; Kobdaj, C.; Kofarago, M.; Kollegger, T.; Kolojvari, A.; Kondratiev, V.; Kondratyeva, N.; Kondratyuk, E.; Konevskikh, A.; Kopcik, M.; Kostarakis, P.; Kour, M.; Kouzinopoulos, C.; Kovalenko, O.; Kovalenko, V.; Kowalski, M.; Meethaleveedu, G. Koyithatta; Kralik, I.; Kravcakova, A.; Krivda, M.; Krizek, F.; Kryshen, E.; Krzewicki, M.; Kubera, A. M.; Kucera, V.; Kuijer, P. G.; Kumar, J.; Kumar, L.; Kumar, S.; Kurashvili, P.; Kurepin, A.; Kurepin, A. B.; Kuryakin, A.; Kweon, M. J.; Kwon, Y.; La Pointe, S. L.; La Rocca, P.; Ladron de Guevara, P.; Lagana Fernandes, C.; Lakomov, I.; Langoy, R.; Lara, C.; Lardeux, A.; Lattuca, A.; Laudi, E.; Lea, R.; Leardini, L.; Lee, G. R.; Lee, S.; Lehas, F.; Lemmon, R. C.; Lenti, V.; Leogrande, E.; Monzon, I. Leon; Leon Vargas, H.; Leoncino, M.; Levai, P.; Lien, J.; Lietava, R.; Lindal, S.; Lindenstruth, V.; Lippmann, C.; Lisa, M. A.; Ljunggren, H. M.; Lodato, D. F.; Loenne, P. I.; Loginov, V.; Loizides, C.; Lopez, X.; Torres, E. Lopez; Lowe, A.; Luettig, P.; Lunardon, M.; Luparello, G.; Lutz, T. H.; Maevskaya, A.; Mager, M.; Mahajan, S.; Mahmood, S. M.; Maire, A.; Majka, R. D.; Malaev, M.; Maldonado Cervantes, I.; Malinina, L.; Mal'Kevich, D.; Malzacher, P.; Mamonov, A.; Manko, V.; Manso, F.; Manzari, V.; Marchisone, M.; Mares, J.; Margagliotti, G. V.; Margotti, A.; Margutti, J.; Marin, A.; Markert, C.; Marquard, M.; Martin, N. A.; Blanco, J. Martin; Martinengo, P.; Martinez, M. I.; Garcia, G. Martinez; Pedreira, M. Martinez; Mas, A.; Masciocchi, S.; Masera, M.; Masoni, A.; Mastroserio, A.; Matyja, A.; Mayer, C.; Mazer, J.; Mazzoni, M. A.; Mcdonald, D.; Meddi, F.; Melikyan, Y.; Menchaca-Rocha, A.; Meninno, E.; Perez, J. Mercado; Meres, M.; Miake, Y.; Mieskolainen, M. M.; Mikhaylov, K.; Milano, L.; Milosevic, J.; Mischke, A.; Mishra, A. N.; Miskowiec, D.; Mitra, J.; Mitu, C. M.; Mohammadi, N.; Mohanty, B.; Molnar, L.; Montano Zetina, L.; Montes, E.; De Godoy, D. A. Moreira; Moreno, L. A. P.; Moretto, S.; Morreale, A.; Morsch, A.; Muccifora, V.; Mudnic, E.; Muehlheim, D.; Muhuri, S.; Mukherjee, M.; Mulligan, J. D.; Munhoz, M. G.; Munzer, R. H.; Murakami, H.; Murray, S.; Musa, L.; Musinsky, J.; Naik, B.; Nair, R.; Nandi, B. K.; Nania, R.; Nappi, E.; Naru, M. U.; Natal da Luz, H.; Nattrass, C.; Navarro, S. R.; Nayak, K.; Nayak, R.; Nayak, T. K.; Nazarenko, S.; Nedosekin, A.; Nellen, L.; Ng, F.; Nicassio, M.; Niculescu, M.; Niedziela, J.; Nielsen, B. S.; Nikolaev, S.; Nikulin, S.; Nikulin, V.; Noferini, F.; Nomokonov, P.; Nooren, G.; Noris, J. C. C.; Norman, J.; Nyanin, A.; Nystrand, J.; Oeschler, H.; Oh, S.; Oh, S. K.; Ohlson, A.; Okatan, A.; Okubo, T.; Olah, L.; Oleniacz, J.; Oliveira Da Silva, A. C.; Oliver, M. H.; Onderwaater, J.; Oppedisano, C.; Orava, R.; Oravec, M.; Ortiz Velasquez, A.; Oskarsson, A.; Otwinowski, J.; Oyama, K.; Ozdemir, M.; Pachmayer, Y.; Pagano, D.; Pagano, P.; Paic, G.; Pal, S. K.; Pan, J.; Papikyan, V.; Pappalardo, G. S.; Pareek, P.; Park, W. J.; Parmar, S.; Passfeld, A.; Paticchio, V.; Patra, R. N.; Paul, B.; Pei, H.; Peitzmann, T.; Da Costa, H. Pereira; Peresunko, D.; Lara, C. E. Perez; Lezama, E. Perez; Peskov, V.; Pestov, Y.; Petracek, V.; Petrov, V.; Petrovici, M.; Petta, C.; Piano, S.; Pikna, M.; Pillot, P.; Pimentel, L. O. D. L.; Pinazza, O.; Pinsky, L.; Piyarathna, D. B.; Ploskon, M.; Planinic, M.; Pluta, J.; Pochybova, S.; Podesta-Lerma, P. L. M.; Poghosyan, M. G.; Polichtchouk, B.; Poljak, N.; Poonsawat, W.; Pop, A.; Porteboeuf-Houssais, S.; Porter, J.; Pospisil, J.; Prasad, S. K.; Preghenella, R.; Prino, F.; Pruneau, C. A.; Pshenichnov, I.; Puccio, M.; Puddu, G.; Pujahari, P.; Punin, V.; Putschke, J.; Qvigstad, H.; Rachevski, A.; Raha, S.; Rajput, S.; Rak, J.; Rakotozafindrabe, A.; Ramello, L.; Rami, F.; Raniwala, R.; Raniwala, S.; Raesaenen, S. S.; Rascanu, B. T.; Rathee, D.; Read, K. F.; Redlich, K.; Reed, R. J.; Reichelt, P.; Reidt, F.; Ren, X.; Renfordt, R.; Reolon, A. R.; Reshetin, A.; Reygers, K.; Riabov, V.; Ricci, R. A.; Richert, T.; Richter, M.; Riedler, P.; Riegler, W.; Riggi, F.; Ristea, C.; Rocco, E.; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, M.; Manso, A. Rodriguez; Roed, K.; Rogochaya, E.; Rohr, D.; Roehrich, D.; Ronchetti, F.; Ronflette, L.; Rosnet, P.; Rossi, A.; Roukoutakis, F.; Roy, A.; Roy, C.; Roy, P.; Montero, A. J. Rubio; Rui, R.; Russo, R.; Ryabinkin, E.; Ryabov, Y.; Rybicki, A.; Saarinen, S.; Sadhu, S.; Sadovsky, S.; Safarik, K.; Sahlmuller, B.; Sahoo, P.; Sahoo, R.; Sahoo, S.; Sahu, P. K.; Saini, J.; Sakai, S.; Saleh, M. A.; Salzwedel, J.; Sambyal, S.; Samsonov, V.; Sandor, L.; Sandoval, A.; Sano, M.; Sarkar, D.; Sarkar, N.; Sarma, P.; Scapparone, E.; Scarlassara, F.; Schiaua, C.; Schicker, R.; Schmidt, C.; Schmidt, H. R.; Schuchmann, S.; Schukraft, J.; Schulc, M.; Schutz, Y.; Schwarz, K.; Schweda, K.; Scioli, G.; Scomparin, E.; Scott, R.; Sefcik, M.; Seger, J. E.; Sekiguchi, Y.; Sekihata, D.; Selyuzhenkov, I.; Senosi, K.; Senyukov, S.; Serradilla, E.; Sevcenco, A.; Shabanov, A.; Shabetai, A.; Shadura, O.; Shahoyan, R.; Shahzad, M. I.; Shangaraev, A.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, M.; Sharma, N.; Sheikh, A. I.; Shigaki, K.; Shou, Q.; Shtejer, K.; Sibiriak, Y.; Siddhanta, S.; Sielewicz, K. M.; Siemiarczuk, T.; Silvermyr, D.; Silvestre, C.; Simatovic, G.; Simonetti, G.; Singaraju, R.; Singh, R.; Singha, S.; Singhal, V.; Sinha, B. C.; Sinha, T.; Sitar, B.; Sitta, M.; Skaali, T. B.; Slupecki, M.; Smirnov, N.; Snellings, R. J. M.; Snellman, T. W.; Song, J.; Song, M.; Song, Z.; Soramel, F.; Sorensen, S.; de Souza, R. D.; Sozzi, F.; Spacek, M.; Spiriti, E.; Sputowska, I.; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, M.; Stachel, J.; Stan, I.; Stankus, P.; Stenlund, E.; Steyn, G.; Stiller, J. H.; Stocco, D.; Strmen, P.; Suaide, A. A. P.; Sugitate, T.; Suire, C.; Suleymanov, M.; Suljic, M.; Sultanov, R.; Sumbera, M.; Sumowidagdo, S.; Szabo, A.; Szanto de Toledo, A.; Szarka, I.; Szczepankiewicz, A.; Szymanski, M.; Tabassam, U.; Takahashi, J.; Tambave, G. J.; Tanaka, N.; Tarhini, M.; Tariq, M.; Tarzila, M. G.; Tauro, A.; Tejeda Munoz, G.; Telesca, A.; Terasaki, K.; Terrevoli, C.; Teyssier, B.; Thaeder, J.; Thakur, D.; Thomas, D.; Tieulent, R.; Timmins, A. R.; Toia, A.; Trogolo, S.; Trombetta, G.; Trubnikov, V.; Trzaska, W. H.; Tsuji, T.; Tumkin, A.; Turrisi, R.; Tveter, T. S.; Ullaland, K.; Uras, A.; Usai, G. L.; Utrobicic, A.; Vala, M.; Palomo, L. Valencia; Vallero, S.; Van Der Maarel, J.; Van Hoorne, J. W.; van Leeuwen, M.; Vanat, T.; Vyvre, P. Vande; Varga, D.; Vargas, A.; Vargyas, M.; Varma, R.; Vasileiou, M.; Vasiliev, A.; Vauthier, A.; Vechernin, V.; Veen, A. M.; Veldhoen, M.; Velure, A.; Vercellin, E.; Vergara Limon, S.; Vernet, R.; Verweij, M.; Vickovic, L.; Viesti, G.; Viinikainen, J.; Vilakazi, Z.; Baillie, O. Villalobos; Villatoro Tello, A.; Vinogradov, A.; Vinogradov, L.; Vinogradov, Y.; Virgili, T.; Vislavicius, V.; Viyogi, Y. P.; Vodopyanov, A.; Voelkl, M. A.; Voloshin, K.; Voloshin, S. A.; Volpe, G.; von Haller, B.; Vorobyev, I.; Vranic, D.; Vrlakova, J.; Vulpescu, B.; Wagner, B.; Wagner, J.; Wang, H.; Watanabe, D.; Watanabe, Y.; Weiser, D. F.; Westerhoff, U.; Whitehead, A. M.; Wiechula, J.; Wikne, J.; Wilk, G.; Wilkinson, J.; Williams, M. C. S.; Windelband, B.; Winn, M.; Yang, H.; Yano, S.; Yasin, Z.; Yokoyama, H.; Yoo, I. -K.; Yoon, J. H.; Yurchenko, V.; Yushmanov, I.; Zaborowska, A.; Zaccolo, V.; Zaman, A.; Zampolli, C.; Zanoli, H. J. C.; Zaporozhets, S.; Zardoshti, N.; Zarochentsev, A.; Zavada, P.; Zaviyalov, N.; Zbroszczyk, H.; Zgura, I. S.; Zhalov, M.; Zhang, C.; Zhao, C.; Zhigareva, N.; Zhou, Y.; Zhou, Z.; Zhu, H.; Zichichi, A.; Zimmermann, A.; Zimmermann, M. B.; Zinovjev, G.; Zyzak, M.

2016-01-01

We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian

Compiling Relational Bayesian Networks for Exact Inference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jaeger, Manfred; Darwiche, Adnan; Chavira, Mark

2006-01-01

We describe in this paper a system for exact inference with relational Bayesian networks as defined in the publicly available PRIMULA tool. The system is based on compiling propositional instances of relational Bayesian networks into arithmetic circuits and then performing online inference...

A Bayesian Justification for Random Sampling in Sample Survey

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Glen Meeden

2012-07-01

Full Text Available In the usual Bayesian approach to survey sampling the sampling design, plays a minimal role, at best. Although a close relationship between exchangeable prior distributions and simple random sampling has been noted; how to formally integrate simple random sampling into the Bayesian paradigm is not clear. Recently it has been argued that the sampling design can be thought of as part of a Bayesian's prior distribution. We will show here that under this scenario simple random sample can be given a Bayesian justification in survey sampling.

Hierarchical Bayesian Modeling of Fluid-Induced Seismicity

Science.gov (United States)

Broccardo, M.; Mignan, A.; Wiemer, S.; Stojadinovic, B.; Giardini, D.

2017-11-01

In this study, we present a Bayesian hierarchical framework to model fluid-induced seismicity. The framework is based on a nonhomogeneous Poisson process with a fluid-induced seismicity rate proportional to the rate of injected fluid. The fluid-induced seismicity rate model depends upon a set of physically meaningful parameters and has been validated for six fluid-induced case studies. In line with the vision of hierarchical Bayesian modeling, the rate parameters are considered as random variables. We develop both the Bayesian inference and updating rules, which are used to develop a probabilistic forecasting model. We tested the Basel 2006 fluid-induced seismic case study to prove that the hierarchical Bayesian model offers a suitable framework to coherently encode both epistemic uncertainty and aleatory variability. Moreover, it provides a robust and consistent short-term seismic forecasting model suitable for online risk quantification and mitigation.

The Development of Bayesian Theory and Its Applications in Business and Bioinformatics

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Yifei

2018-03-01

Bayesian Theory originated from an Essay of a British mathematician named Thomas Bayes in 1763, and after its development in 20th century, Bayesian Statistics has been taking a significant part in statistical study of all fields. Due to the recent breakthrough of high-dimensional integral, Bayesian Statistics has been improved and perfected, and now it can be used to solve problems that Classical Statistics failed to solve. This paper summarizes Bayesian Statistics’ history, concepts and applications, which are illustrated in five parts: the history of Bayesian Statistics, the weakness of Classical Statistics, Bayesian Theory and its development and applications. The first two parts make a comparison between Bayesian Statistics and Classical Statistics in a macroscopic aspect. And the last three parts focus on Bayesian Theory in specific -- from introducing some particular Bayesian Statistics’ concepts to listing their development and finally their applications.

Empirical Bayesian inference and model uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Poern, K.

1994-01-01

This paper presents a hierarchical or multistage empirical Bayesian approach for the estimation of uncertainty concerning the intensity of a homogeneous Poisson process. A class of contaminated gamma distributions is considered to describe the uncertainty concerning the intensity. These distributions in turn are defined through a set of secondary parameters, the knowledge of which is also described and updated via Bayes formula. This two-stage Bayesian approach is an example where the modeling uncertainty is treated in a comprehensive way. Each contaminated gamma distributions, represented by a point in the 3D space of secondary parameters, can be considered as a specific model of the uncertainty about the Poisson intensity. Then, by the empirical Bayesian method each individual model is assigned a posterior probability

Linen in Ancient Egypt

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

dr.Rehab Mahmoud Ahmed Elsharnouby

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Egypt was famous through the Ancient Near East for both weaving linen cloth and the produced quantities. Cloth was sent as expensive gifts from one king to another and given to a laborer as wages in return for his work. Cloth was regarded as an essential element in everyday life as it could be used for everything: clothing, bedding, trappings for animals, or sails of a ship. It was in fact one of the most widely used item throughout Ancient Egypt. Although other textile fibers were used in Pharaonic Egypt, namely, sheep's wool, goat hair and a form of coir, the majority of textiles were made from the plant Linum usitatissimum, flax. Cloth made from this fiber is defined as linen. The research starts with a brief definition of the flax, and then reviews the scenes representing the sowing and the harvesting of its seeds. It also focuses on the way of removing the seeds heads, the preparing of the flax for spinning: retting, beating and scutching. After that, it deals with transforming flax into orderly lengths, and rolling it into balls or coils. The researcher as well studies the Ancient Egyptian spinning techniques: grasped spindle, support spindle and drop spinning; the different types of weaving: tabby weaves, basket weaves, tapestry weaves and warps-patterned weave and the types of looms that were in use in Egypt, namely, the horizontal and vertical looms.

Ancient Wisdom, Applied Knowledge for a Sustainable Future

Science.gov (United States)

Peterson, K.; Philippe, R. Elde; Dardar, T. M. Elde

2017-12-01

Ancient wisdom informs traditional knowledges that guide Indigenous communities on how to interact with the world. These knowledges and the ancient wisdom have been the life-giving forces that have prevented the complete genocide of Indigenous peoples, and is also the wisdom that is rejuvenating ancient ways that will take the world into a future that embraces the seventh generation philosophy.. Western scientists and agency representatives are learning from the work and wisdom of Native Americans. This presentation will share the ways in which the representatives of two Tribes along the coast of Louisiana have been helping to educate and apply their work with Western scientists.

Radiocarbon ages of Sorori ancient rice of Korea

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Kyeong Ja, E-mail: kjkim@kigam.re.kr [Korea Institute of Geoscience and Mineral Resources, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Yung-Jo; Woo, Jong-Yoon [Institute of Korean Prehistory, Cheongju (Korea, Republic of); Jull, A.J. Timothy [NSF Arizona AMS Laboratory, University of Arizona, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States)

2013-01-15

Samples of Sorori ancient rice were excavated in 1998 from the Sorori Paleolithic site located at Sorori, Oksan-myeon, Cheong-won County in Chungcheongbuk-do, Korea. We have made new radiocarbon measurements for Sorori samples in 2009 at the NSF Arizona AMS Laboratory. Both ancient rice samples and surrounded peat from the Sorori site were dated. The AMS results confirmed that the ages of the rice and peat soil were 12,520 {+-} 150 and 12,552 {+-} 90 BP, respectively. These radiocarbon ages are consistent with the previously published data of quasi rice measured at Seoul National University and confirm that the Sorori rice is the oldest ancient rice currently reported.

Advances in Bayesian Modeling in Educational Research

Science.gov (United States)

Levy, Roy

2016-01-01

In this article, I provide a conceptually oriented overview of Bayesian approaches to statistical inference and contrast them with frequentist approaches that currently dominate conventional practice in educational research. The features and advantages of Bayesian approaches are illustrated with examples spanning several statistical modeling…

Ancient Biomolecules from Deep Ice Cores Reveal a Forested Southern Greenland

Science.gov (United States)

Willerslev, Eske; Cappellini, Enrico; Boomsma, Wouter; Nielsen, Rasmus; Hebsgaard, Martin B.; Brand, Tina B.; Hofreiter, Michael; Bunce, Michael; Poinar, Hendrik N.; Dahl-Jensen, Dorthe; Johnsen, Sigfus; Steffensen, Jørgen Peder; Bennike, Ole; Schwenninger, Jean-Luc; Nathan, Roger; Armitage, Simon; de Hoog, Cees-Jan; Alfimov, Vasily; Christl, Marcus; Beer, Juerg; Muscheler, Raimund; Barker, Joel; Sharp, Martin; Penkman, Kirsty E.H.; Haile, James; Taberlet, Pierre; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.; Casoli, Antonella; Campani, Elisa; Collins, Matthew J.

2009-01-01

One of the major difficulties in paleontology is the acquisition of fossil data from the 10% of Earth’s terrestrial surface that is covered by thick glaciers and ice sheets. Here we reveal that DNA and amino acids from buried organisms can be recovered from the basal sections of deep ice cores and allow reconstructions of past flora and fauna. We show that high altitude southern Greenland, currently lying below more than two kilometers of ice, was once inhabited by a diverse array of conifer trees and insects that may date back more than 450 thousand years. The results provide the first direct evidence in support of a forested southern Greenland and suggest that many deep ice cores may contain genetic records of paleoenvironments in their basal sections. PMID:17615355

An Ancient Inca Tax and Metallurgy in Peru

Science.gov (United States)

Journal of Chemical Education, 2007

2007-01-01

The discovery of ancient Inca tax rulers and other metallurgical objects in Peru show that the ancient civilizations of the country smelted metals. The analysis shows that the smelters in Peru switched from the production of copper to silver after a tax was imposed on them by the Inca rulers.

Objective Bayesianism and the Maximum Entropy Principle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jon Williamson

2013-09-01

Full Text Available Objective Bayesian epistemology invokes three norms: the strengths of our beliefs should be probabilities; they should be calibrated to our evidence of physical probabilities; and they should otherwise equivocate sufficiently between the basic propositions that we can express. The three norms are sometimes explicated by appealing to the maximum entropy principle, which says that a belief function should be a probability function, from all those that are calibrated to evidence, that has maximum entropy. However, the three norms of objective Bayesianism are usually justified in different ways. In this paper, we show that the three norms can all be subsumed under a single justification in terms of minimising worst-case expected loss. This, in turn, is equivalent to maximising a generalised notion of entropy. We suggest that requiring language invariance, in addition to minimising worst-case expected loss, motivates maximisation of standard entropy as opposed to maximisation of other instances of generalised entropy. Our argument also provides a qualified justification for updating degrees of belief by Bayesian conditionalisation. However, conditional probabilities play a less central part in the objective Bayesian account than they do under the subjective view of Bayesianism, leading to a reduced role for Bayes’ Theorem.

Classifying emotion in Twitter using Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Surya Asriadie, Muhammad; Syahrul Mubarok, Mohamad; Adiwijaya

2018-03-01

Language is used to express not only facts, but also emotions. Emotions are noticeable from behavior up to the social media statuses written by a person. Analysis of emotions in a text is done in a variety of media such as Twitter. This paper studies classification of emotions on twitter using Bayesian network because of its ability to model uncertainty and relationships between features. The result is two models based on Bayesian network which are Full Bayesian Network (FBN) and Bayesian Network with Mood Indicator (BNM). FBN is a massive Bayesian network where each word is treated as a node. The study shows the method used to train FBN is not very effective to create the best model and performs worse compared to Naive Bayes. F1-score for FBN is 53.71%, while for Naive Bayes is 54.07%. BNM is proposed as an alternative method which is based on the improvement of Multinomial Naive Bayes and has much lower computational complexity compared to FBN. Even though it’s not better compared to FBN, the resulting model successfully improves the performance of Multinomial Naive Bayes. F1-Score for Multinomial Naive Bayes model is 51.49%, while for BNM is 52.14%.

Probability biases as Bayesian inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andre; C. R. Martins

2006-11-01

Full Text Available In this article, I will show how several observed biases in human probabilistic reasoning can be partially explained as good heuristics for making inferences in an environment where probabilities have uncertainties associated to them. Previous results show that the weight functions and the observed violations of coalescing and stochastic dominance can be understood from a Bayesian point of view. We will review those results and see that Bayesian methods should also be used as part of the explanation behind other known biases. That means that, although the observed errors are still errors under the be understood as adaptations to the solution of real life problems. Heuristics that allow fast evaluations and mimic a Bayesian inference would be an evolutionary advantage, since they would give us an efficient way of making decisions. %XX In that sense, it should be no surprise that humans reason with % probability as it has been observed.

Neutron activation analysis of some ancient and modern Chinese Jun Porcelain samples

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Zhengyao; Wang Jie; Chen Songhua; Huang Zhongxiang; Han Song; Jia Xiuqin

1997-01-01

Up to 43 glaze and body samples of ancient and modern Chinese Jun Porcelain and other porcelain are chosen and contents of 36 elements for each sample are determined by NAA. The NAA data are then analysed by the fuzzy cluster method. The result shows that although the ancient Jun Porcelain samples span leaped 600 years and are from different kilns and their glaze colors are utterly different, they have a long-term, stable and mainly the same supply of raw material. The relation between ancient Jun Porcelain and ancient Ru Porcelain is also preliminarily analysed. It is found that only few modern Jun Porcelain samples are similar to ancient Jun Porcelain but the majority of them are different from ancient ones

Reconstructing an Ancient Wonder.

Science.gov (United States)

Imhof, Christopher J.

2001-01-01

Describes a Montessori class project involving the building of a model of the ancient Briton monument, Stonehenge. Illustrates how the flexibility of the Montessori elementary curriculum encourages children to make their own toys and learn from the process. (JPB)

Bayesian data analysis in population ecology: motivations, methods, and benefits

Science.gov (United States)

Dorazio, Robert

2016-01-01

During the 20th century ecologists largely relied on the frequentist system of inference for the analysis of their data. However, in the past few decades ecologists have become increasingly interested in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this article I provide guidance to ecologists who would like to decide whether Bayesian methods can be used to improve their conclusions and predictions. I begin by providing a concise summary of Bayesian methods of analysis, including a comparison of differences between Bayesian and frequentist approaches to inference when using hierarchical models. Next I provide a list of problems where Bayesian methods of analysis may arguably be preferred over frequentist methods. These problems are usually encountered in analyses based on hierarchical models of data. I describe the essentials required for applying modern methods of Bayesian computation, and I use real-world examples to illustrate these methods. I conclude by summarizing what I perceive to be the main strengths and weaknesses of using Bayesian methods to solve ecological inference problems.

Bayesian psychometric scaling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fox, Gerardus J.A.; van den Berg, Stéphanie Martine; Veldkamp, Bernard P.; Irwing, P.; Booth, T.; Hughes, D.

2015-01-01

In educational and psychological studies, psychometric methods are involved in the measurement of constructs, and in constructing and validating measurement instruments. Assessment results are typically used to measure student proficiency levels and test characteristics. Recently, Bayesian item

Learning Bayesian Networks with Incomplete Data by Augmentation

OpenAIRE

Adel, Tameem; de Campos, Cassio P.

2016-01-01

We present new algorithms for learning Bayesian networks from data with missing values using a data augmentation approach. An exact Bayesian network learning algorithm is obtained by recasting the problem into a standard Bayesian network learning problem without missing data. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first exact algorithm for this problem. As expected, the exact algorithm does not scale to large domains. We build on the exact method to create an approximate algorithm using a ...

LiDAR based prediction of forest biomass using hierarchical models with spatially varying coefficients

Science.gov (United States)

Babcock, Chad; Finley, Andrew O.; Bradford, John B.; Kolka, Randall K.; Birdsey, Richard A.; Ryan, Michael G.

2015-01-01

Many studies and production inventory systems have shown the utility of coupling covariates derived from Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data with forest variables measured on georeferenced inventory plots through regression models. The objective of this study was to propose and assess the use of a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework that accommodates both residual spatial dependence and non-stationarity of model covariates through the introduction of spatial random effects. We explored this objective using four forest inventory datasets that are part of the North American Carbon Program, each comprising point-referenced measures of above-ground forest biomass and discrete LiDAR. For each dataset, we considered at least five regression model specifications of varying complexity. Models were assessed based on goodness of fit criteria and predictive performance using a 10-fold cross-validation procedure. Results showed that the addition of spatial random effects to the regression model intercept improved fit and predictive performance in the presence of substantial residual spatial dependence. Additionally, in some cases, allowing either some or all regression slope parameters to vary spatially, via the addition of spatial random effects, further improved model fit and predictive performance. In other instances, models showed improved fit but decreased predictive performance—indicating over-fitting and underscoring the need for cross-validation to assess predictive ability. The proposed Bayesian modeling framework provided access to pixel-level posterior predictive distributions that were useful for uncertainty mapping, diagnosing spatial extrapolation issues, revealing missing model covariates, and discovering locally significant parameters.

Bayesian optimization for computationally extensive probability distributions.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamura, Ryo; Hukushima, Koji

2018-01-01

An efficient method for finding a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions is proposed on the basis of a Bayesian optimization technique. A key idea of the proposed method is to use extreme values of acquisition functions by Gaussian processes for the next training phase, which should be located near a local maximum or a global maximum of the probability distribution. Our Bayesian optimization technique is applied to the posterior distribution in the effective physical model estimation, which is a computationally extensive probability distribution. Even when the number of sampling points on the posterior distributions is fixed to be small, the Bayesian optimization provides a better maximizer of the posterior distributions in comparison to those by the random search method, the steepest descent method, or the Monte Carlo method. Furthermore, the Bayesian optimization improves the results efficiently by combining the steepest descent method and thus it is a powerful tool to search for a better maximizer of computationally extensive probability distributions.

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reddy, Vikas; Farr, Anna Charisse; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K D V

2014-01-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++

An Intuitive Dashboard for Bayesian Network Inference

Science.gov (United States)

Reddy, Vikas; Charisse Farr, Anna; Wu, Paul; Mengersen, Kerrie; Yarlagadda, Prasad K. D. V.

2014-03-01

Current Bayesian network software packages provide good graphical interface for users who design and develop Bayesian networks for various applications. However, the intended end-users of these networks may not necessarily find such an interface appealing and at times it could be overwhelming, particularly when the number of nodes in the network is large. To circumvent this problem, this paper presents an intuitive dashboard, which provides an additional layer of abstraction, enabling the end-users to easily perform inferences over the Bayesian networks. Unlike most software packages, which display the nodes and arcs of the network, the developed tool organises the nodes based on the cause-and-effect relationship, making the user-interaction more intuitive and friendly. In addition to performing various types of inferences, the users can conveniently use the tool to verify the behaviour of the developed Bayesian network. The tool has been developed using QT and SMILE libraries in C++.

Mitogenomic analyses from ancient DNA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Paijmans, Johanna L. A.; Gilbert, Tom; Hofreiter, Michael

2013-01-01

The analysis of ancient DNA is playing an increasingly important role in conservation genetic, phylogenetic and population genetic analyses, as it allows incorporating extinct species into DNA sequence trees and adds time depth to population genetics studies. For many years, these types of DNA...... analyses (whether using modern or ancient DNA) were largely restricted to the analysis of short fragments of the mitochondrial genome. However, due to many technological advances during the past decade, a growing number of studies have explored the power of complete mitochondrial genome sequences...... yielded major progress with regard to both the phylogenetic positions of extinct species, as well as resolving population genetics questions in both extinct and extant species....

Ancient Egypt in our Cultural Heritage?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vera Vasiljević

2016-02-01

Full Text Available Inspiration derived from ancient Egypt is usually expressed through the Egyptian motifs in arts and popular culture of the 19th and 20th centuries, as well as through the non-scientific interpretations of the culture, very much based upon the Renaissance ones. The number and variety of material and non-material traces of this fascination are most expressed in the countries where, along with the early support for the institutional development of Egyptology, there existed economically potent educated middle classes (Western and Central Europe, USA, but may also be traced elsewhere. The public fascination by ancient Egypt has not ceased by the times of foundation of Egyptology, marked by the decipherment of the hieroglyphic script in 1822. Until the end of the 20th century Egyptologists have rarely dealt with the prelude to their discipline, limiting their interest to the critical approach to ancient sources and to noting the attempts to interpret the hieroglyphic script and the function of pyramids. However, the rising importance of the reception studies in other disciplines raised the interest of Egyptologists for the "fascination of Egypt", thus changing the status of various modes of expressing "Egyptomania" – they have thus become a part of the cultural heritage, registered, documented, preserved and studied. The research of this kind is only beginning in Serbia. The line of inquiry enhances the knowledge of the scope, manifestations and roles of the interest in Egypt, not limited by the national or political borders. On the other hand, the existence of the cultural heritage similar to the wider European view of ancient Egypt – short remarks by Jerotej Račanin, Kandor by Atanasije Stojković, the usage of architectural motifs derived from Egypt, the emergence of small private collections, to mention several early examples – all show that the research into the reception of ancient Egypt may contribute to the knowledge about the history

Bayesian disease mapping: hierarchical modeling in spatial epidemiology

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Lawson, Andrew

2013-01-01

.... Exploring these new developments, Bayesian Disease Mapping: Hierarchical Modeling in Spatial Epidemiology, Second Edition provides an up-to-date, cohesive account of the full range of Bayesian disease mapping methods and applications...

The rights of patients as consumers: An ancient view.

Science.gov (United States)

Barapatre, Nishant Bhimraj; Joglekar, Vishnu Prabhakar

2016-01-01

As far as the rights of consumers are concerned, the International Organization of Consumer's Union (IOCU) in 1983 has specified about the eight rights of a consumer. The Consumer Protection Act (CPA), 1986 then prescribed six "Rights of Consumers," which are protected under the act. However, these rights can be observed in the ancient Indian texts such as Brihat-trayee , Narad Smruti , and Kautilya Arthashastra ., in the form of rights given to patients. For the purpose of present study, the implemented methodology includes - (1) study of the consumer rights described by IOCU and CPA, (2) detailed review of literature for observance of replication of these consumer rights in the ancient Indian texts and (3) a comparative study of the present consumer rights with the rights of patients observed in ancient Indian texts. This study shows that the substance of consumer rights is not a recent evolution, but the foundation of these rights has been laid well beforehand in the ancient times, which were provided to the patients by medical profession as well as by the rulers. The current scenario of protection of consumer rights is the replication of this ancient practice only.

Ancient Human Parasites in Ethnic Chinese Populations.

Science.gov (United States)

Yeh, Hui-Yuan; Mitchell, Piers D

2016-10-01

Whilst archaeological evidence for many aspects of life in ancient China is well studied, there has been much less interest in ancient infectious diseases, such as intestinal parasites in past Chinese populations. Here, we bring together evidence from mummies, ancient latrines, and pelvic soil from burials, dating from the Neolithic Period to the Qing Dynasty, in order to better understand the health of the past inhabitants of China and the diseases endemic in the region. Seven species of intestinal parasite have been identified, namely roundworm, whipworm, Chinese liver fluke, oriental schistosome, pinworm, Taenia sp. tapeworm, and the intestinal fluke Fasciolopsis buski . It was found that in the past, roundworm, whipworm, and Chinese liver fluke appear to have been much more common than the other species. While roundworm and whipworm remained common into the late 20th century, Chinese liver fluke seems to have undergone a marked decline in its prevalence over time. The iconic transport route known as the Silk Road has been shown to have acted as a vector for the transmission of ancient diseases, highlighted by the discovery of Chinese liver fluke in a 2,000 year-old relay station in northwest China, 1,500 km outside its endemic range.

Non-destructive sampling of ancient insect DNA

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Thomsen, Philip Francis; Elias, Scott; Gilbert, Tom

2009-01-01

BACKGROUND: A major challenge for ancient DNA (aDNA) studies on insect remains is that sampling procedures involve at least partial destruction of the specimens. A recent extraction protocol reveals the possibility of obtaining DNA from past insect remains without causing visual morphological...... of 77-204 base pairs (-bp) in size using species-specific and general insect primers. CONCLUSION/SIGNIFICANCE: The applied non-destructive DNA extraction method shows promising potential on insect museum specimens of historical age as far back as AD 1820, but less so on the ancient permafrost......-preserved insect fossil remains tested, where DNA was obtained from samples up to ca. 26,000 years old. The non-frozen sediment DNA approach appears to have great potential for recording the former presence of insect taxa not normally preserved as macrofossils and opens new frontiers in research on ancient...

Applied investigation of Moessbauer effect for the famous ancient chinese porcelains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Zhengyao; Chen Songhua; Shen Zuocheng

1996-10-01

The famous Ru porcelain, Jun porcelain and Guan porcelain of Song Dynasty and Yuan Dynasty are analyzed. The Moessbauer parameters of the ancient porcelains and the imitative ancient porcelains are compared. The firing techniques, coloring mechanism and microstructures of the ancient Chinese porcelains have been discussed. (7 figs., 4 tabs.)

Using Bayesian Networks to Improve Knowledge Assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Millan, Eva; Descalco, Luis; Castillo, Gladys; Oliveira, Paula; Diogo, Sandra

2013-01-01

In this paper, we describe the integration and evaluation of an existing generic Bayesian student model (GBSM) into an existing computerized testing system within the Mathematics Education Project (PmatE--Projecto Matematica Ensino) of the University of Aveiro. This generic Bayesian student model had been previously evaluated with simulated…

Learning dynamic Bayesian networks with mixed variables

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bøttcher, Susanne Gammelgaard

This paper considers dynamic Bayesian networks for discrete and continuous variables. We only treat the case, where the distribution of the variables is conditional Gaussian. We show how to learn the parameters and structure of a dynamic Bayesian network and also how the Markov order can be learned...

Ancient Chinese literature reveals pathways of eggplant domestication.

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Jin-Xiu; Gao, Tian-Gang; Knapp, Sandra

2008-12-01

Changes in key traits occurring during the processes of plant domestication have long been subjects of debate. Only in the case of genetic analysis or with extensive plant remains can specific sets of changes be documented. Historical details of the plant domestication processes are rare and other evidence of morphological change can be difficult to obtain, especially for those vegetables that lack a substantial body of archaeological data. Botanical records chronicled in the ancient literature of established ancient civilizations, such as that of China, are invaluable resources for the study and understanding of the process of plant domestication. Here, the considerable body of ancient Chinese literature is used to explore the domestication process that has occurred with the eggplant (Solanum melongena), an important vegetable in Old World. Information about eggplant domestication in the ancient Chinese literature was retrieved using a variety of methods. The information obtained was then sorted by taxon, examined and taxonomic identifications verified. It was found that the earliest record of the eggplant documented in ancient Chinese literature was in a work from 59 bc. As far as is known, this is the earliest reliable and accurately dated record of eggplant in cultivation. The analysis reveals that the process of domestication of the eggplant in China involved three principal aspects of fruit quality: size, shape and taste. These traits were actively and gradually selected; fruit size changed from small to large, taste changed from not palatable to what was termed at the time sweetish, and that over time, a wider variety of fruit shapes was cultivated. The results indicate that, in addition to data gleaned from archaeology and genetics, evidence as to changes in key traits occurring during the process of plant domestication and selective forces responsible for these changes can be traced through the ancient literature in some civilizations.

Bayesian Statistics: Concepts and Applications in Animal Breeding – A Review

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lsxmikant-Sambhaji Kokate

2011-07-01

Full Text Available Statistics uses two major approaches- conventional (or frequentist and Bayesian approach. Bayesian approach provides a complete paradigm for both statistical inference and decision making under uncertainty. Bayesian methods solve many of the difficulties faced by conventional statistical methods, and extend the applicability of statistical methods. It exploits the use of probabilistic models to formulate scientific problems. To use Bayesian statistics, there is computational difficulty and secondly, Bayesian methods require specifying prior probability distributions. Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC methods were applied to overcome the computational difficulty, and interest in Bayesian methods was renewed. In Bayesian statistics, Bayesian structural equation model (SEM is used. It provides a powerful and flexible approach for studying quantitative traits for wide spectrum problems and thus it has no operational difficulties, with the exception of some complex cases. In this method, the problems are solved at ease, and the statisticians feel it comfortable with the particular way of expressing the results and employing the software available to analyze a large variety of problems.

Notions of "Rhetoric as Epistemic" in Ancient Greece.

Science.gov (United States)

Benoit, William L.

The notion that rhetoric (and to a lesser extent, argument) is epistemic is an increasingly popular one today, although it can be traced to ancient Greece. The notion holds that rhetoric, or the art of persuasion, creates and shapes knowledge. Two ancient authors--Aristophanes and Plato--provide evidence that others had notions of rhetoric as…

Bayesian non- and semi-parametric methods and applications

CERN Document Server

Rossi, Peter

2014-01-01

This book reviews and develops Bayesian non-parametric and semi-parametric methods for applications in microeconometrics and quantitative marketing. Most econometric models used in microeconomics and marketing applications involve arbitrary distributional assumptions. As more data becomes available, a natural desire to provide methods that relax these assumptions arises. Peter Rossi advocates a Bayesian approach in which specific distributional assumptions are replaced with more flexible distributions based on mixtures of normals. The Bayesian approach can use either a large but fixed number

Surgical history of ancient China: Part 2.

Science.gov (United States)

Fu, Louis

2010-03-01

In this second part of ancient Chinese surgical history, the practice of bone setting in China began around 3000 years ago. Throughout this period, significant progress was made, some highlights of which are cited. These methods, comparable with Western orthopaedic technique, are still being practised today. In conclusion, the possible reasons for the lack of advancement in operative surgery are discussed, within context of the cultural, social and religious background of ancient China.

Social Norms in the Ancient Athenian Courts

OpenAIRE

Lanni, Adriaan M.

2013-01-01

Ancient Athens was a remarkably peaceful and well-ordered society by both ancient and contemporary standards. Scholars typically attribute Athens’ success to internalized norms and purely informal enforcement mechanisms. This article argues that the formal Athenian court system played a vital role in maintaining order by enforcing informal norms. This peculiar approach to norm enforcement compensated for apparent weaknesses in the state system of coercion. It mitigated the effects of under-e...

Musical ensembles in Ancient Mesapotamia

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Krispijn, T.J.H.; Dumbrill, R.; Finkel, I.

2010-01-01

Identification of musical instruments from ancient Mesopotamia by comparing musical ensembles attested in Sumerian and Akkadian texts with depicted ensembles. Lexicographical contributions to the Sumerian and Akkadian lexicon.

history repeats itself : saddam and the ancient mesopotamian royal

African Journals Online (AJOL)

harkhu

ancient Mesopotamia (present day Iraq)2, from the fourth millennium3 until its incorporation into the ..... aspects of Mesopotamian culture that could not be separated from the other. Saddam, on the ..... site of ancient Babylon. Large parts of the ...

Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander

2014-01-06

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

Non-linear Bayesian update of PCE coefficients

KAUST Repository

Litvinenko, Alexander; Matthies, Hermann G.; Pojonk, Oliver; Rosic, Bojana V.; Zander, Elmar

2014-01-01

Given: a physical system modeled by a PDE or ODE with uncertain coefficient q(?), a measurement operator Y (u(q), q), where u(q, ?) uncertain solution. Aim: to identify q(?). The mapping from parameters to observations is usually not invertible, hence this inverse identification problem is generally ill-posed. To identify q(!) we derived non-linear Bayesian update from the variational problem associated with conditional expectation. To reduce cost of the Bayesian update we offer a unctional approximation, e.g. polynomial chaos expansion (PCE). New: We apply Bayesian update to the PCE coefficients of the random coefficient q(?) (not to the probability density function of q).

Was Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus introduced into China via the ancient Silk Road? An evolutionary perspective.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Zhenqiu; Fang, Qiwen; Zuo, Jialu; Minhas, Veenu; Wood, Charles; He, Na; Zhang, Tiejun

2017-10-01

Kaposi's sarcoma-associated herpesvirus (KSHV) has become widely dispersed worldwide since it was first reported in 1994, but the seroprevalence of KSHV varies geographically. KSHV is relatively ubiquitous in Mediterranean areas and the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region, China. The origin of KSHV has long been puzzling. In the present study, we collected and analysed 154 KSHV ORF-K1 sequences obtained from samples originating from Xinjiang, Italy, Greece, Iran and southern Siberia using Bayesian evolutionary analysis in BEAST to test the hypothesis that KSHV was introduced into Xinjiang via the ancient Silk Road. According to the phylogenetic analysis, 72 sequences were subtype A and 82 subtype C, with C2 (n = 56) being the predominant subtype. The times to the most recent common ancestors (tMRCAs) of KSHV were 29,872 years (95% highest probability density [HPD], 26,851-32,760 years) for all analysed sequences and 2037 years (95% HPD, 1843-2229 years) for Xinjiang sequences in particular. The tMRCA of Xinjiang KSHV was exactly matched with the time period of the ancient Silk Road approximately two thousand years ago. This route began in Chang'an, the capital of the Han dynasty of China, and crossed Central Asia, ending in the Roman Empire. The evolution rate of KSHV was slow, with 3.44 × 10 -6 substitutions per site per year (95% HPD, 2.26 × 10 -6 to 4.71 × 10 -6 ), although 11 codons were discovered to be under positive selection pressure. The geographic distances from Italy to Iran and Xinjiang are more than 4000 and 7000 kilometres, respectively, but no explicit relationship between genetic distance and geographic distance was detected.

A Fast Iterative Bayesian Inference Algorithm for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand; Manchón, Carles Navarro; Fleury, Bernard Henri

2013-01-01

representation of the Bessel K probability density function; a highly efficient, fast iterative Bayesian inference method is then applied to the proposed model. The resulting estimator outperforms other state-of-the-art Bayesian and non-Bayesian estimators, either by yielding lower mean squared estimation error...

A Gentle Introduction to Bayesian Analysis : Applications to Developmental Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van de Schoot, Rens; Kaplan, David; Denissen, Jaap; Asendorpf, Jens B.; Neyer, Franz J.; van Aken, Marcel A G

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

A gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis : Applications to developmental research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van de Schoot, R.; Kaplan, D.; Denissen, J.J.A.; Asendorpf, J.B.; Neyer, F.J.; van Aken, M.A.G.

2014-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are becoming ever more popular in applied and fundamental research. In this study a gentle introduction to Bayesian analysis is provided. It is shown under what circumstances it is attractive to use Bayesian estimation, and how to interpret properly the results. First,

A nonparametric Bayesian approach for genetic evaluation in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Journal of Animal Science ... the Bayesian and Classical models, a Bayesian procedure is provided which allows these random ... data from the Elsenburg Dormer sheep stud and data from a simulation experiment are utilized. >

3D Bayesian contextual classifiers

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Larsen, Rasmus

2000-01-01

We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours.......We extend a series of multivariate Bayesian 2-D contextual classifiers to 3-D by specifying a simultaneous Gaussian distribution for the feature vectors as well as a prior distribution of the class variables of a pixel and its 6 nearest 3-D neighbours....

Health benefits of ancient grains. Comparison among bread made with ancient, heritage and modern grain flours in human cultured cells.

Science.gov (United States)

Valli, Veronica; Taccari, Annalisa; Di Nunzio, Mattia; Danesi, Francesca; Bordoni, Alessandra

2018-05-01

Nowadays the higher nutritional value of whole grains compared to refined grains is recognized. In the last decade, there has been a renewed interest in the ancient wheat varieties for producing high-value food products with enhanced health benefits. This study compared two ancient grains, two heritage grains, and four modern grains grown in the same agronomic conditions considering not only their chemical characteristics, but also their biological effects. Whole grain flours were obtained and used to make bread. Bread was in vitro digested, the digesta were supplemented to HepG2 cells, and the biological effects of supplementation were evaluated. In addition, cells previously supplemented with the different digested bread types were then exposed to inflammatory agents to evidence possible protective effects of the pre-treatments. Despite the impossibility to discriminate bread made with different grains based on their chemical composition, results herein reported evidence that their supplementation to cultured cells exerts different effects, confirming the potential health benefits of ancient grains. This research represents an advancement for the evaluation of the apparent positive effects of ancient grains and the formulation of cereal-based products with added nutritional value. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian probability theory and inverse problems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kopec, S.

1994-01-01

Bayesian probability theory is applied to approximate solving of the inverse problems. In order to solve the moment problem with the noisy data, the entropic prior is used. The expressions for the solution and its error bounds are presented. When the noise level tends to zero, the Bayesian solution tends to the classic maximum entropy solution in the L 2 norm. The way of using spline prior is also shown. (author)

Variations on Bayesian Prediction and Inference

Science.gov (United States)

2016-05-09

inference 2.2.1 Background There are a number of statistical inference problems that are not generally formulated via a full probability model...problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability 1. REPORT DATE (DD-MM-YYYY) 4. TITLE AND...the problem of inference about an unknown parameter, the Bayesian approach requires a full probability model/likelihood which can be an obstacle

Automated high resolution mapping of coffee in Rwanda using an expert Bayesian network

Science.gov (United States)

Mukashema, A.; Veldkamp, A.; Vrieling, A.

2014-12-01

African highland agro-ecosystems are dominated by small-scale agricultural fields that often contain a mix of annual and perennial crops. This makes such systems difficult to map by remote sensing. We developed an expert Bayesian network model to extract the small-scale coffee fields of Rwanda from very high resolution data. The model was subsequently applied to aerial orthophotos covering more than 99% of Rwanda and on one QuickBird image for the remaining part. The method consists of a stepwise adjustment of pixel probabilities, which incorporates expert knowledge on size of coffee trees and fields, and on their location. The initial naive Bayesian network, which is a spectral-based classification, yielded a coffee map with an overall accuracy of around 50%. This confirms that standard spectral variables alone cannot accurately identify coffee fields from high resolution images. The combination of spectral and ancillary data (DEM and a forest map) allowed mapping of coffee fields and associated uncertainties with an overall accuracy of 87%. Aggregated to district units, the mapped coffee areas demonstrated a high correlation with the coffee areas reported in the detailed national coffee census of 2009 (R2 = 0.92). Unlike the census data our map provides high spatial resolution of coffee area patterns of Rwanda. The proposed method has potential for mapping other perennial small scale cropping systems in the East African Highlands and elsewhere.

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part II: Example applications with JASP.

Science.gov (United States)

Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Love, Jonathon; Marsman, Maarten; Jamil, Tahira; Ly, Alexander; Verhagen, Josine; Selker, Ravi; Gronau, Quentin F; Dropmann, Damian; Boutin, Bruno; Meerhoff, Frans; Knight, Patrick; Raj, Akash; van Kesteren, Erik-Jan; van Doorn, Johnny; Šmíra, Martin; Epskamp, Sacha; Etz, Alexander; Matzke, Dora; de Jong, Tim; van den Bergh, Don; Sarafoglou, Alexandra; Steingroever, Helen; Derks, Koen; Rouder, Jeffrey N; Morey, Richard D

2018-02-01

Bayesian hypothesis testing presents an attractive alternative to p value hypothesis testing. Part I of this series outlined several advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing, including the ability to quantify evidence and the ability to monitor and update this evidence as data come in, without the need to know the intention with which the data were collected. Despite these and other practical advantages, Bayesian hypothesis tests are still reported relatively rarely. An important impediment to the widespread adoption of Bayesian tests is arguably the lack of user-friendly software for the run-of-the-mill statistical problems that confront psychologists for the analysis of almost every experiment: the t-test, ANOVA, correlation, regression, and contingency tables. In Part II of this series we introduce JASP ( http://www.jasp-stats.org ), an open-source, cross-platform, user-friendly graphical software package that allows users to carry out Bayesian hypothesis tests for standard statistical problems. JASP is based in part on the Bayesian analyses implemented in Morey and Rouder's BayesFactor package for R. Armed with JASP, the practical advantages of Bayesian hypothesis testing are only a mouse click away.

Improving Transparency and Replication in Bayesian Statistics : The WAMBS-Checklist

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Depaoli, Sarah; van de Schoot, Rens

2017-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are slowly creeping into all fields of science and are becoming ever more popular in applied research. Although it is very attractive to use Bayesian statistics, our personal experience has led us to believe that naively applying Bayesian methods can be dangerous for at

Second-harmonic generation imaging of collagen in ancient bone.

Science.gov (United States)

Thomas, B; McIntosh, D; Fildes, T; Smith, L; Hargrave, F; Islam, M; Thompson, T; Layfield, R; Scott, D; Shaw, B; Burrell, C L; Gonzalez, S; Taylor, S

2017-12-01

Second-harmonic generation imaging (SHG) captures triple helical collagen molecules near tissue surfaces. Biomedical research routinely utilizes various imaging software packages to quantify SHG signals for collagen content and distribution estimates in modern tissue samples including bone. For the first time using SHG, samples of modern, medieval, and ice age bones were imaged to test the applicability of SHG to ancient bone from a variety of ages, settings, and taxa. Four independent techniques including Raman spectroscopy, FTIR spectroscopy, radiocarbon dating protocols, and mass spectrometry-based protein sequencing, confirm the presence of protein, consistent with the hypothesis that SHG imaging detects ancient bone collagen. These results suggest that future studies have the potential to use SHG imaging to provide new insights into the composition of ancient bone, to characterize ancient bone disorders, to investigate collagen preservation within and between various taxa, and to monitor collagen decay regimes in different depositional environments.

An introduction to using Bayesian linear regression with clinical data.

Science.gov (United States)

Baldwin, Scott A; Larson, Michael J

2017-11-01

Statistical training psychology focuses on frequentist methods. Bayesian methods are an alternative to standard frequentist methods. This article provides researchers with an introduction to fundamental ideas in Bayesian modeling. We use data from an electroencephalogram (EEG) and anxiety study to illustrate Bayesian models. Specifically, the models examine the relationship between error-related negativity (ERN), a particular event-related potential, and trait anxiety. Methodological topics covered include: how to set up a regression model in a Bayesian framework, specifying priors, examining convergence of the model, visualizing and interpreting posterior distributions, interval estimates, expected and predicted values, and model comparison tools. We also discuss situations where Bayesian methods can outperform frequentist methods as well has how to specify more complicated regression models. Finally, we conclude with recommendations about reporting guidelines for those using Bayesian methods in their own research. We provide data and R code for replicating our analyses. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayesian ARTMAP for regression.

Science.gov (United States)

Sasu, L M; Andonie, R

2013-10-01

Bayesian ARTMAP (BA) is a recently introduced neural architecture which uses a combination of Fuzzy ARTMAP competitive learning and Bayesian learning. Training is generally performed online, in a single-epoch. During training, BA creates input data clusters as Gaussian categories, and also infers the conditional probabilities between input patterns and categories, and between categories and classes. During prediction, BA uses Bayesian posterior probability estimation. So far, BA was used only for classification. The goal of this paper is to analyze the efficiency of BA for regression problems. Our contributions are: (i) we generalize the BA algorithm using the clustering functionality of both ART modules, and name it BA for Regression (BAR); (ii) we prove that BAR is a universal approximator with the best approximation property. In other words, BAR approximates arbitrarily well any continuous function (universal approximation) and, for every given continuous function, there is one in the set of BAR approximators situated at minimum distance (best approximation); (iii) we experimentally compare the online trained BAR with several neural models, on the following standard regression benchmarks: CPU Computer Hardware, Boston Housing, Wisconsin Breast Cancer, and Communities and Crime. Our results show that BAR is an appropriate tool for regression tasks, both for theoretical and practical reasons. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

Science.gov (United States)

J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

2006-01-01

Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

Ancient ports of Kalinga

Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

Tripati, S.

which plied between Kalinga and south east Asian countries. Nanda Raja, is said to have attacked Kalinga with the intention of getting access to the sea for the landlocked Kingdom of Magadha (Bihar). The ancient texa Artha Sastra (3rd-4th century B...

Ancient Greek in modern language of medicine

OpenAIRE

Marković Vera

2007-01-01

In order to standardize language of medicine, it is essential to have a good command of ancient Greek and Latin. We cannot deny a huge impact of ancient Greek medicine on medical terminology. Compounds of Greek origin related to terms for organs, illnesses, inflammations, surgical procedures etc. have been listed as examples. They contain Greek prefixes and suffixes transcribed into Latin and they have been analyzed. It may be concluded that the modern language of medicine basically represent...

From ancient Greek Logos to European rationality

OpenAIRE

APOSTOLOPOULOU GEORGIA

2016-01-01

Because of history, culture, and politics, European identity has its archetypical elements in ancient Greek culture. Ancient Greek philosophy brought Logos to fore and defined it as the crucial problem and the postulate of the human. We translate the Greek term Logos in English as reason or rationality. These terms, however, do not cover the semantic field of Logos since this includes, among other things, order of being, ground, language, argument etc. The juxtaposition of Logos (reason) to m...

Doing bayesian data analysis a tutorial with R and BUGS

CERN Document Server

Kruschke, John K

2011-01-01

There is an explosion of interest in Bayesian statistics, primarily because recently created computational methods have finally made Bayesian analysis obtainable to a wide audience. Doing Bayesian Data Analysis, A Tutorial Introduction with R and BUGS provides an accessible approach to Bayesian data analysis, as material is explained clearly with concrete examples. The book begins with the basics, including essential concepts of probability and random sampling, and gradually progresses to advanced hierarchical modeling methods for realistic data. The text delivers comprehensive coverage of all

Bayesian estimation of dose rate effectiveness

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Arnish, J.J.; Groer, P.G.

2000-01-01

A Bayesian statistical method was used to quantify the effectiveness of high dose rate 137 Cs gamma radiation at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice. The Bayesian approach considers both the temporal and dose dependence of radiation carcinogenesis and total mortality. This paper provides the first direct estimation of dose rate effectiveness using Bayesian statistics. This statistical approach provides a quantitative description of the uncertainty of the factor characterising the dose rate in terms of a probability density function. The results show that a fixed dose from 137 Cs gamma radiation delivered at a high dose rate is more effective at inducing fatal mammary tumours and increasing the overall mortality rate in BALB/c female mice than the same dose delivered at a low dose rate. (author)

BATSE gamma-ray burst line search. 2: Bayesian consistency methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Band, D. L.; Ford, L. A.; Matteson, J. L.; Briggs, M.; Paciesas, W.; Pendleton, G.; Preece, R.; Palmer, D.; Teegarden, B.; Schaefer, B.

1994-01-01

We describe a Bayesian methodology to evaluate the consistency between the reported Ginga and Burst and Transient Source Experiment (BATSE) detections of absorption features in gamma-ray burst spectra. Currently no features have been detected by BATSE, but this methodology will still be applicable if and when such features are discovered. The Bayesian methodology permits the comparison of hypotheses regarding the two detectors' observations and makes explicit the subjective aspects of our analysis (e.g., the quantification of our confidence in detector performance). We also present non-Bayesian consistency statistics. Based on preliminary calculations of line detectability, we find that both the Bayesian and non-Bayesian techniques show that the BATSE and Ginga observations are consistent given our understanding of these detectors.

Ancient analogues concerning stability and durability of cementitious wasteform

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jiang, W.; Roy, D.M.

1994-01-01

The history of cementitious materials goes back to ancient times. The Greeks and Romans used calcined limestone and later developed pozzolanic cement by grinding together lime and volcanic ash called open-quotes pozzolanclose quotes which was first found near Port Pozzuoli, Italy. The ancient Chinese used lime-pozzolanic mixes to build the Great Wall. The ancient Egyptians used calcined impure gypsum to build the Great Pyramid of Cheops. The extraordinary stability and durability of these materials has impressed us, when so much dramatically damaged infrastructure restored by using modern portland cement now requires rebuilding. Stability and durability of cementitious materials have attracted intensive research interest and contractors' concerns, as does immobilization of radioactive and hazardous industrial waste in cementitious materials. Nuclear waste pollution of the environment and an acceptable solution for waste management and disposal constitute among the most important public concerns. The analogy of ancient cementitious materials to modern Portland cement could give us some clues to study their stability and durability. This present study examines selected results of studies of ancient building materials from France, Italy, China, and Egypt, combined with knowledge obtained from the behavior of modern portland cement to evaluate the potential for stability and durability of such materials in nuclear waste forms

Historical reconstruction of climatic and elevation preferences and the evolution of cloud forest-adapted tree ferns in Mesoamerica.

Science.gov (United States)

Sosa, Victoria; Ornelas, Juan Francisco; Ramírez-Barahona, Santiago; Gándara, Etelvina

2016-01-01

Cloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remained in situ or expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence. Here we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space) for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences. Bayesian trees retrieved Cyathea, Alsophyla, Gymnosphaera and Sphaeropteris in monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except for Gymnosphaera that was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from hypothesized ancestors for the most significant

Historical reconstruction of climatic and elevation preferences and the evolution of cloud forest-adapted tree ferns in Mesoamerica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Victoria Sosa

2016-11-01

Full Text Available Background Cloud forests, characterized by a persistent, frequent or seasonal low-level cloud cover and fragmented distribution, are one of the most threatened habitats, especially in the Neotropics. Tree ferns are among the most conspicuous elements in these forests, and ferns are restricted to regions in which minimum temperatures rarely drop below freezing and rainfall is high and evenly distributed around the year. Current phylogeographic data suggest that some of the cloud forest-adapted species remained in situ or expanded to the lowlands during glacial cycles and contracted allopatrically during the interglacials. Although the observed genetic signals of population size changes of cloud forest-adapted species including tree ferns correspond to predicted changes by Pleistocene climate change dynamics, the observed patterns of intraspecific lineage divergence showed temporal incongruence. Methods Here we combined phylogenetic analyses, ancestral area reconstruction, and divergence time estimates with climatic and altitudinal data (environmental space for phenotypic traits of tree fern species to make inferences about evolutionary processes in deep time. We used phylogenetic Bayesian inference and geographic and altitudinal distribution of tree ferns to investigate ancestral area and elevation and environmental preferences of Mesoamerican tree ferns. The phylogeny was then used to estimate divergence times and ask whether the ancestral area and elevation and environmental shifts were linked to climatic events and historical climatic preferences. Results Bayesian trees retrieved Cyathea, Alsophyla, Gymnosphaera and Sphaeropteris in monophyletic clades. Splits for species in these genera found in Mesoamerican cloud forests are recent, from the Neogene to the Quaternary, Australia was identified as the ancestral area for the clades of these genera, except for Gymnosphaera that was Mesoamerica. Climate tolerance was not divergent from

Bayesian signal processing classical, modern, and particle filtering methods

CERN Document Server

Candy, James V

2016-01-01

This book aims to give readers a unified Bayesian treatment starting from the basics (Baye's rule) to the more advanced (Monte Carlo sampling), evolving to the next-generation model-based techniques (sequential Monte Carlo sampling). This next edition incorporates a new chapter on "Sequential Bayesian Detection," a new section on "Ensemble Kalman Filters" as well as an expansion of Case Studies that detail Bayesian solutions for a variety of applications. These studies illustrate Bayesian approaches to real-world problems incorporating detailed particle filter designs, adaptive particle filters and sequential Bayesian detectors. In addition to these major developments a variety of sections are expanded to "fill-in-the gaps" of the first edition. Here metrics for particle filter (PF) designs with emphasis on classical "sanity testing" lead to ensemble techniques as a basic requirement for performance analysis. The expansion of information theory metrics and their application to PF designs is fully developed an...

Bayesian Networks for Modeling Dredging Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-01

years, that algorithms have been developed to solve these problems efficiently. Most modern Bayesian network software uses junction tree (a.k.a. join... software was used to develop the network . This is by no means an exhaustive list of Bayesian network applications, but it is representative of recent...characteristic node (SCN), state- defining node ( SDN ), effect node (EFN), or value node. The five types of nodes can be described as follows: ERDC/EL TR-11

A Bayesian classifier for symbol recognition

OpenAIRE

Barrat , Sabine; Tabbone , Salvatore; Nourrissier , Patrick

2007-01-01

URL : http://www.buyans.com/POL/UploadedFile/134_9977.pdf; International audience; We present in this paper an original adaptation of Bayesian networks to symbol recognition problem. More precisely, a descriptor combination method, which enables to improve significantly the recognition rate compared to the recognition rates obtained by each descriptor, is presented. In this perspective, we use a simple Bayesian classifier, called naive Bayes. In fact, probabilistic graphical models, more spec...

Sparse reconstruction using distribution agnostic bayesian matching pursuit

KAUST Repository

Masood, Mudassir; Al-Naffouri, Tareq Y.

2013-01-01

A fast matching pursuit method using a Bayesian approach is introduced for sparse signal recovery. This method performs Bayesian estimates of sparse signals even when the signal prior is non-Gaussian or unknown. It is agnostic on signal statistics

Bayesian emulation for optimization in multi-step portfolio decisions

OpenAIRE

Irie, Kaoru; West, Mike

2016-01-01

We discuss the Bayesian emulation approach to computational solution of multi-step portfolio studies in financial time series. "Bayesian emulation for decisions" involves mapping the technical structure of a decision analysis problem to that of Bayesian inference in a purely synthetic "emulating" statistical model. This provides access to standard posterior analytic, simulation and optimization methods that yield indirect solutions of the decision problem. We develop this in time series portf...

Setting the stage - building and working in an ancient DNA laboratory.

Science.gov (United States)

Knapp, Michael; Clarke, Andrew C; Horsburgh, K Ann; Matisoo-Smith, Elizabeth A

2012-01-20

With the introduction of next generation high throughput sequencing in 2005 and the resulting revolution in genetics, ancient DNA research has rapidly developed from an interesting but marginal field within evolutionary biology into one that can contribute significantly to our understanding of evolution in general and the development of our own species in particular. While the amount of sequence data available from ancient human, other animal and plant remains has increased dramatically over the past five years, some key limitations of ancient DNA research remain. Most notably, reduction of contamination and the authentication of results are of utmost importance. A number of studies have addressed different aspects of sampling, DNA extraction and DNA manipulation in order to establish protocols that most efficiently generate reproducible and authentic results. As increasing numbers of researchers from different backgrounds become interested in using ancient DNA technology to address key questions, the need for practical guidelines on how to construct and use an ancient DNA facility arises. The aim of this article is therefore to provide practical tips for building a state-of-the-art ancient DNA facility. It is intended to help researchers new to the field of ancient DNA research generally, and those considering the application of next generation sequencing, in their planning process. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier GmbH. All rights reserved.

Bayesian Analysis for Penalized Spline Regression Using WinBUGS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ciprian M. Crainiceanu

2005-09-01

Full Text Available Penalized splines can be viewed as BLUPs in a mixed model framework, which allows the use of mixed model software for smoothing. Thus, software originally developed for Bayesian analysis of mixed models can be used for penalized spline regression. Bayesian inference for nonparametric models enjoys the flexibility of nonparametric models and the exact inference provided by the Bayesian inferential machinery. This paper provides a simple, yet comprehensive, set of programs for the implementation of nonparametric Bayesian analysis in WinBUGS. Good mixing properties of the MCMC chains are obtained by using low-rank thin-plate splines, while simulation times per iteration are reduced employing WinBUGS specific computational tricks.

Comparative Study of Inference Methods for Bayesian Nonnegative Matrix Factorisation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brouwer, Thomas; Frellsen, Jes; Liò, Pietro

2017-01-01

In this paper, we study the trade-offs of different inference approaches for Bayesian matrix factorisation methods, which are commonly used for predicting missing values, and for finding patterns in the data. In particular, we consider Bayesian nonnegative variants of matrix factorisation and tri......-factorisation, and compare non-probabilistic inference, Gibbs sampling, variational Bayesian inference, and a maximum-a-posteriori approach. The variational approach is new for the Bayesian nonnegative models. We compare their convergence, and robustness to noise and sparsity of the data, on both synthetic and real...

The provenance study of Chinese ancient architectonical colored glaze by INAA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng Lin; Feng Songlin; Li Rongwu; Lue Zhirong; Li Guoxia

2008-01-01

The colored glazes are very popular and famous in Chinese ancient architectures. In order to exactly locate the provenance of ancient architectonical colored glazes, 196 pieces of ancient colored glaze bodies and porcelain bodies fired in Xiyue Temple and Lidipo kiln are analyzed by INAA. The results of factor analysis and some archaeological questions are reported and discussed in this paper

The provenance study of Chinese ancient architectonical colored glaze by INAA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cheng Lin [Key Laboratory of Beam Technology and Material Modification of Ministry of Education, College of Nuclear Science and Technology, Beijing Radiation Center, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875 (China); Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China)], E-mail: chenglin@bnu.edu.cn; Feng Songlin [Institute of High Energy Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049 (China); Li Rongwu [Department of Physics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100049 (China); Lue Zhirong [Shan' xi Provincial Institute of Cultural Relics and Archaeology, Xi' an 710054 (China); Li Guoxia [Institute of Physical Engineering, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450052 (China)

2008-12-15

The colored glazes are very popular and famous in Chinese ancient architectures. In order to exactly locate the provenance of ancient architectonical colored glazes, 196 pieces of ancient colored glaze bodies and porcelain bodies fired in Xiyue Temple and Lidipo kiln are analyzed by INAA. The results of factor analysis and some archaeological questions are reported and discussed in this paper.

Resurrecting ancient animal genomes: the extinct moa and more.

Science.gov (United States)

Huynen, Leon; Millar, Craig D; Lambert, David M

2012-08-01

Recently two developments have had a major impact on the field of ancient DNA (aDNA). First, new advances in DNA sequencing, in combination with improved capture/enrichment methods, have resulted in the recovery of orders of magnitude more DNA sequence data from ancient animals. Second, there has been an increase in the range of tissue types employed in aDNA. Hair in particular has proven to be very successful as a source of DNA because of its low levels of contamination and high level of ancient endogenous DNA. These developments have resulted in significant advances in our understanding of recently extinct animals: namely their evolutionary relationships, physiology, and even behaviour. Hair has been used to recover the first complete ancient nuclear genome, that of the extinct woolly mammoth, which then facilitated the expression and functional analysis of haemoglobins. Finally, we speculate on the consequences of these developments for the possibility of recreating extinct animals. Copyright © 2012 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

PIXE study on ancient pottery from Chinese Shanghai area

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cheng, H.S.; Zhang, Z.Q.; Song, J.; Gao, M.H.; Zhu, D.; Lin, J.W.; Feng, S.L.

2006-01-01

Shanghai is the largest city in China, and it also has a very long history. Archaeologists have found that six thousand yeas ago, there were ancient people living at Songze, Qingpu County, Shanghai. This paper reports the study of ancient potteries unearthed from the Guangfulin site located at Songjiang, Shanghai. The potteries unearthed from Guangfulin site belonged to two different culture types: the Liangzhu culture type (local culture) and a new culture, which might be derived from elsewhere. PIXE has been used to measure the chemical compositions of samples and factor analysis was used. Experimental results show that the compositions of the pottery from the two phases are different from each other. It means that the raw materials used to make the ancient pottery originate from different places. This results support the idea suggested by archaeologists that a group of ancient people migrated to the Shanghai area from some other place 4000 years ago

X-ray analysis of pigments on ancient Egyptian monuments

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Uda, M.; Sassa, S.; Yoshioka, T.

1999-01-01

Ancient pigments were analyzed using PIXE and XRD methods in the laboratory, which were painted on ancient Egyptian monuments. On the other hand, those on monuments remaining with entire shape were investigated using the hand-held type of an XRF spectrometer and an X-ray diffractometer in the field. For the laboratory experiment, several wall fragments of the Malqata palace in ancient Egypt (18th Dynasty, ca. 1390 B.C.) were investigated. In the field experiment, the block of Ramesses II (19th Dynasty, ca. 1270 B.C.), the Wooden Coffin of Neb-sny (18th Dynasty, ca. 1400 B.C.), the Funerary Stele of Amenemhat (11th Dynasty, ca. 2000 B.C.), and the painted walls of the Tomb of Userhat (18th Dynasty, ca. 1400 B.C.) were investigated. From white and blue colored parts, huntite and Egyptian blue were found, respectively, which are a very rare mineral and an artificial pigment prepared only in ancient Egypt, respectively. (author)

X-ray analysis of pigments on ancient Egyptian monuments

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Uda, M.; Sassa, S.; Yoshioka, T. [Waseda Univ., Department of Materials Science and Engineering, Tokyo (JP)] [and others

1999-07-01

Ancient pigments were analyzed using PIXE and XRD methods in the laboratory, which were painted on ancient Egyptian monuments. On the other hand, those on monuments remaining with entire shape were investigated using the hand-held type of an XRF spectrometer and an X-ray diffractometer in the field. For the laboratory experiment, several wall fragments of the Malqata palace in ancient Egypt (18th Dynasty, ca. 1390 B.C.) were investigated. In the field experiment, the block of Ramesses II (19th Dynasty, ca. 1270 B.C.), the Wooden Coffin of Neb-sny (18th Dynasty, ca. 1400 B.C.), the Funerary Stele of Amenemhat (11th Dynasty, ca. 2000 B.C.), and the painted walls of the Tomb of Userhat (18th Dynasty, ca. 1400 B.C.) were investigated. From white and blue colored parts, huntite and Egyptian blue were found, respectively, which are a very rare mineral and an artificial pigment prepared only in ancient Egypt, respectively. (author)

Second-harmonic generation imaging of collagen in ancient bone

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

B. Thomas

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Second-harmonic generation imaging (SHG captures triple helical collagen molecules near tissue surfaces. Biomedical research routinely utilizes various imaging software packages to quantify SHG signals for collagen content and distribution estimates in modern tissue samples including bone. For the first time using SHG, samples of modern, medieval, and ice age bones were imaged to test the applicability of SHG to ancient bone from a variety of ages, settings, and taxa. Four independent techniques including Raman spectroscopy, FTIR spectroscopy, radiocarbon dating protocols, and mass spectrometry-based protein sequencing, confirm the presence of protein, consistent with the hypothesis that SHG imaging detects ancient bone collagen. These results suggest that future studies have the potential to use SHG imaging to provide new insights into the composition of ancient bone, to characterize ancient bone disorders, to investigate collagen preservation within and between various taxa, and to monitor collagen decay regimes in different depositional environments.

The Maya Tropical Forest: Cascading Human impacts from Hillslopes to Floodplains

Science.gov (United States)

Beach, Timothy; Luzzadder-Beach, Sheryl; Doyle, Colin; Krause, Samantha; Brokaw, Nicholas; Yaeger, Jason

2016-04-01

We review the long-term human impact on fluvial systems in the Maya tropical forest region. Although most of this karstic region is drained by groundwater, the southern and coastal margins have several river systems that drain volcanic and metamorphic as well as sedimentary terrains. Some positive environmental impacts of Maya Civilization were the long-term impacts of both landesque capital, like wetland field systems, and other land uses that have enriched many soils. Some negative impacts included stripped soils and eutrophic rivers, both playing out again today with recent deforestation and intensive agriculture. We review trends in the region's fluvial systems, present new evidence on beneficial and detrimental impacts of Maya civilization, and present a new study using LiDAR mapping of fluvial geomorphology of the Belize River. Our new field research comes from the transboundary Rio Bravo watershed of Belize and Guatemala near the border with Mexico. This watershed today is mainly a well preserved tropical forest but from 3,000 to 1000 years ago was partly deforested by Maya cities, farms, roads, fires, and fields. We present studies of soils and sediment movement along slopes, floodplains, and water quality impacts of high dissolved loads of sulfate and calcium. We use AMS dates and soil stratigraphy to date slope and floodplain flux, and we use multiple proxies like pollen and carbon isotopes to reconstruct ancient land use. Aggradation in the floodplain and colluvial deposits began by at least 3,000 years ago and continued until 1100 years ago in several study sites. Some Classic period sites with peak human population and land use intensity experienced less soil erosion, perhaps due to soil conservation, post urban construction, and source reduction. Additional evidence suggests that ancient terraced sites and colluvial slopes that gained upslope sediment and soil nutrients from ancient Maya erosion had greater biodiversity. Lastly, we map fluvial

Optimizing Prediction Using Bayesian Model Averaging: Examples Using Large-Scale Educational Assessments.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaplan, David; Lee, Chansoon

2018-01-01

This article provides a review of Bayesian model averaging as a means of optimizing the predictive performance of common statistical models applied to large-scale educational assessments. The Bayesian framework recognizes that in addition to parameter uncertainty, there is uncertainty in the choice of models themselves. A Bayesian approach to addressing the problem of model uncertainty is the method of Bayesian model averaging. Bayesian model averaging searches the space of possible models for a set of submodels that satisfy certain scientific principles and then averages the coefficients across these submodels weighted by each model's posterior model probability (PMP). Using the weighted coefficients for prediction has been shown to yield optimal predictive performance according to certain scoring rules. We demonstrate the utility of Bayesian model averaging for prediction in education research with three examples: Bayesian regression analysis, Bayesian logistic regression, and a recently developed approach for Bayesian structural equation modeling. In each case, the model-averaged estimates are shown to yield better prediction of the outcome of interest than any submodel based on predictive coverage and the log-score rule. Implications for the design of large-scale assessments when the goal is optimal prediction in a policy context are discussed.

Can natural selection encode Bayesian priors?

Science.gov (United States)

Ramírez, Juan Camilo; Marshall, James A R

2017-08-07

The evolutionary success of many organisms depends on their ability to make decisions based on estimates of the state of their environment (e.g., predation risk) from uncertain information. These decision problems have optimal solutions and individuals in nature are expected to evolve the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if using the optimal solutions. Bayesian inference is the optimal method to produce estimates from uncertain data, thus natural selection is expected to favour individuals with the behavioural mechanisms to make decisions as if they were computing Bayesian estimates in typically-experienced environments, although this does not necessarily imply that favoured decision-makers do perform Bayesian computations exactly. Each individual should evolve to behave as if updating a prior estimate of the unknown environment variable to a posterior estimate as it collects evidence. The prior estimate represents the decision-maker's default belief regarding the environment variable, i.e., the individual's default 'worldview' of the environment. This default belief has been hypothesised to be shaped by natural selection and represent the environment experienced by the individual's ancestors. We present an evolutionary model to explore how accurately Bayesian prior estimates can be encoded genetically and shaped by natural selection when decision-makers learn from uncertain information. The model simulates the evolution of a population of individuals that are required to estimate the probability of an event. Every individual has a prior estimate of this probability and collects noisy cues from the environment in order to update its prior belief to a Bayesian posterior estimate with the evidence gained. The prior is inherited and passed on to offspring. Fitness increases with the accuracy of the posterior estimates produced. Simulations show that prior estimates become accurate over evolutionary time. In addition to these 'Bayesian' individuals, we also

Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, D.; Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Romeijn, J.-W.

2011-01-01

Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

Mechanistic curiosity will not kill the Bayesian cat

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Borsboom, Denny; Wagenmakers, Eric-Jan; Romeijn, Jan-Willem

Jones & Love (J&L) suggest that Bayesian approaches to the explanation of human behavior should be constrained by mechanistic theories. We argue that their proposal misconstrues the relation between process models, such as the Bayesian model, and mechanisms. While mechanistic theories can answer

Non-homogeneous dynamic Bayesian networks for continuous data

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Grzegorczyk, Marco; Husmeier, Dirk

Classical dynamic Bayesian networks (DBNs) are based on the homogeneous Markov assumption and cannot deal with non-homogeneous temporal processes. Various approaches to relax the homogeneity assumption have recently been proposed. The present paper presents a combination of a Bayesian network with

Assessing the fidelity of ancient DNA sequences amplified from nuclear genes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Binladen, Jonas; Wiuf, Carsten Henrik; Gilbert, M. Thomas P.

2006-01-01

To date, the field of ancient DNA has relied almost exclusively on mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) sequences. However, a number of recent studies have reported the successful recovery of ancient nuclear DNA (nuDNA) sequences, thereby allowing the characterization of genetic loci directly involved...... in phenotypic traits of extinct taxa. It is well documented that postmortem damage in ancient mtDNA can lead to the generation of artifactual sequences. However, as yet no one has thoroughly investigated the damage spectrum in ancient nuDNA. By comparing clone sequences from 23 fossil specimens, recovered from...... adenine), respectively. Type 2 transitions are by far the most dominant and increase relative to those of type 1 with damage load. The results suggest that the deamination of cytosine (and 5-methyl cytosine) to uracil (and thymine) is the main cause of miscoding lesions in both ancient mtDNA and nu...

Creative Ventures: Ancient Civilizations.

Science.gov (United States)

Stark, Rebecca

The open-ended activities in this book are designed to extend the imagination and creativity of students and encourage students to examine their feelings and values about historic eras. Civilizations addressed include ancient Egypt, Greece, Rome, Mayan, Stonehenge, and Mesopotamia. The activities focus upon the cognitive and affective pupil…

Penile representations in ancient Greek art.

Science.gov (United States)

Rempelakos, L; Tsiamis, C; Poulakou-Rebelakou, E

2013-12-01

The presentation of the cult of phallus in ancient Greece and the artistic appearance of the phenomenon on vase figures and statues, as indicative of the significant role of the male genitalia in all fertility ceremonies. The examination of a great number of penile representations from the ancient Greek pottery and sculpture and the review of the ancient theater plays (satiric dramas and comedies ). Phallus in artistic representation is connected either with gods of fertility, such as the goat-footed and horned Pan or the ugly dwarf Priapus or the semi-animal nailed figures Satyrs, devotees of the god Dionysus accompanying him in all ritual orgiastic celebrations. Phallus also symbolizes good luck, health and sexuality: people bear or wear artificial phalli exactly like the actors as part of their costume or carry huge penises during the festive ritual processions. On the contrary, the Olympic gods or the ordinary mortals are not imaged ithyphallic; the ideal type of male beauty epitomized in classical sculpture, normally depicts genitals of average or less than average size. It is noteworthy that many of these images belong to athletes during or immediately after hard exercise with the penis shrunk. The normal size genitalia may have been simply a convention to distinguish normal people from the gods of sexuality and fertility, protectors of the reproductive process of Nature. The representation of the over-sized and erected genitalia on vase figures or statues of ancient Greek art is related to fertility gods such as Priapus, Pan and Satyrs and there is strong evidence that imagination and legend were replacing the scientific achievements in the field of erectile function for many centuries.

Medicine and psychiatry in Western culture: Ancient Greek myths and modern prejudices

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Clementi Nicoletta

2009-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract The origins of Western culture extensively relate to Ancient Greek culture. While many ancient cultures have contributed to our current knowledge about medicine and the origins of psychiatry, the Ancient Greeks were among the best observers of feelings and moods patients expressed towards medicine and toward what today is referred to as 'psychopathology'. Myths and religious references were used to explain what was otherwise impossible to understand or be easily communicated. Most ancient myths focus on ambiguous feelings patients may have had towards drugs, especially psychotropic ones. Interestingly, such prejudices are common even today. Recalling ancient findings and descriptions made using myths could represent a valuable knowledge base for modern physicians, especially for psychiatrists and their patients, with the aim of better understanding each other and therefore achieving a better clinical outcome. This paper explores many human aspects and feelings towards doctors and their cures, referring to ancient myths and focusing on the perception of mental illness.

Ancient Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Swamy, Ashwin Balegar

This thesis involves development of an interactive GIS (Geographic Information System) based application, which gives information about the ancient history of Egypt. The astonishing architecture, the strange burial rituals and their civilization were some of the intriguing questions that motivated me towards developing this application. The application is a historical timeline starting from 3100 BC, leading up to 664 BC, focusing on the evolution of the Egyptian dynasties. The tool holds information regarding some of the famous monuments which were constructed during that era and also about the civilizations that co-existed. It also provides details about the religions followed by their kings. It also includes the languages spoken during those periods. The tool is developed using JAVA, a programing language and MOJO (Map Objects Java Objects) a product of ESRI (Environmental Science Research Institute) to create map objects, to provide geographic information. JAVA Swing is used for designing the user interface. HTML (Hyper Text Markup Language) pages are created to provide the user with more information related to the historic period. CSS (Cascade Style Sheets) and JAVA Scripts are used with HTML5 to achieve creative display of content. The tool is kept simple and easy for the user to interact with. The tool also includes pictures and videos for the user to get a feel of the historic period. The application is built to motivate people to know more about one of the prominent and ancient civilization of the Mediterranean world.

Statistics: a Bayesian perspective

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Berry, Donald A

1996-01-01

...: it is the only introductory textbook based on Bayesian ideas, it combines concepts and methods, it presents statistics as a means of integrating data into the significant process, it develops ideas...

Embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion into a global context

Science.gov (United States)

Sander, Jennifer; Heizmann, Michael

2014-05-01

Bayesian statistics offers a well-founded and powerful fusion methodology also for the fusion of heterogeneous information sources. However, except in special cases, the needed posterior distribution is not analytically derivable. As consequence, Bayesian fusion may cause unacceptably high computational and storage costs in practice. Local Bayesian fusion approaches aim at reducing the complexity of the Bayesian fusion methodology significantly. This is done by concentrating the actual Bayesian fusion on the potentially most task relevant parts of the domain of the Properties of Interest. Our research on these approaches is motivated by an analogy to criminal investigations where criminalists pursue clues also only locally. This publication follows previous publications on a special local Bayesian fusion technique called focussed Bayesian fusion. Here, the actual calculation of the posterior distribution gets completely restricted to a suitably chosen local context. By this, the global posterior distribution is not completely determined. Strategies for using the results of a focussed Bayesian analysis appropriately are needed. In this publication, we primarily contrast different ways of embedding the results of focussed Bayesian fusion explicitly into a global context. To obtain a unique global posterior distribution, we analyze the application of the Maximum Entropy Principle that has been shown to be successfully applicable in metrology and in different other areas. To address the special need for making further decisions subsequently to the actual fusion task, we further analyze criteria for decision making under partial information.

A Bayesian Optimal Design for Sequential Accelerated Degradation Testing

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiaoyang Li

2017-07-01

Full Text Available When optimizing an accelerated degradation testing (ADT plan, the initial values of unknown model parameters must be pre-specified. However, it is usually difficult to obtain the exact values, since many uncertainties are embedded in these parameters. Bayesian ADT optimal design was presented to address this problem by using prior distributions to capture these uncertainties. Nevertheless, when the difference between a prior distribution and actual situation is large, the existing Bayesian optimal design might cause some over-testing or under-testing issues. For example, the implemented ADT following the optimal ADT plan consumes too much testing resources or few accelerated degradation data are obtained during the ADT. To overcome these obstacles, a Bayesian sequential step-down-stress ADT design is proposed in this article. During the sequential ADT, the test under the highest stress level is firstly conducted based on the initial prior information to quickly generate degradation data. Then, the data collected under higher stress levels are employed to construct the prior distributions for the test design under lower stress levels by using the Bayesian inference. In the process of optimization, the inverse Gaussian (IG process is assumed to describe the degradation paths, and the Bayesian D-optimality is selected as the optimal objective. A case study on an electrical connector’s ADT plan is provided to illustrate the application of the proposed Bayesian sequential ADT design method. Compared with the results from a typical static Bayesian ADT plan, the proposed design could guarantee more stable and precise estimations of different reliability measures.

A Bayesian Method for Weighted Sampling

OpenAIRE

Lo, Albert Y.

1993-01-01

Bayesian statistical inference for sampling from weighted distribution models is studied. Small-sample Bayesian bootstrap clone (BBC) approximations to the posterior distribution are discussed. A second-order property for the BBC in unweighted i.i.d. sampling is given. A consequence is that BBC approximations to a posterior distribution of the mean and to the sampling distribution of the sample average, can be made asymptotically accurate by a proper choice of the random variables that genera...

Bayesian Geostatistical Design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Diggle, Peter; Lophaven, Søren Nymand

2006-01-01

locations to, or deletion of locations from, an existing design, and prospective design, which consists of choosing positions for a new set of sampling locations. We propose a Bayesian design criterion which focuses on the goal of efficient spatial prediction whilst allowing for the fact that model...

Originating relation studies on ancient porcelains of chines Ru and Jun by NAA

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhao Weijuan; Xie Jianzhong; Gao Zhengyao; Li Guoxia; Li Rongwu; Zhang Bin

2002-01-01

50 samples of glazes and bodies of the ancient Chinese Ru porcelain, Jun porcelain and imitative ancient ceramics were analyzed by neutron activation analysis (NAA). The contents of 36 elements in each sample were measured. The NAA data were statistically treated by fuzzy cluster method and the trend cluster diagram was obtained. Their classes and raw material sources were determined. The results show that although these samples spanned hundreds of years, came from different kilns and had different glazes colors, the bodies of the ancient Chinese Ru porcelain and Jun porcelain belong to the same kind, the glazes of the ancient Chinese Ru porcelain is similar to the glazes of the ancient Chinese Jun porcelain. The originating places of the body raw material were concentrated, and that of the glaze raw materials were scattered, the source of the glaze raw material covered that the body raw material. The ancient Chinese Ru porcelain and Jun porcelain have basically the same raw material sources and the sources of raw material are stable in long time. It is found that most modern Jun porcelain samples are similar to the ancient Chinese Jun porcelain. Two modern Ru porcelain samples are similar to the ancient Chinese Ru porcelain, but another one drifts apart from the ancient Chinese Ru porcelain. Jingdezhen porcelain has no relation to Ru porcelain and Jun porcelain

Molecular analysis of ancient caries

Science.gov (United States)

Simón, Marc; Montiel, Rafael; Smerling, Andrea; Solórzano, Eduvigis; Díaz, Nancy; Álvarez-Sandoval, Brenda A.; Jiménez-Marín, Andrea R.; Malgosa, Assumpció

2014-01-01

An 84 base pair sequence of the Streptococcus mutans virulence factor, known as dextranase, has been obtained from 10 individuals from the Bronze Age to the Modern Era in Europe and from before and after the colonization in America. Modern samples show four polymorphic sites that have not been found in the ancient samples studied so far. The nucleotide and haplotype diversity of this region have increased over time, which could be reflecting the footprint of a population expansion. While this segment has apparently evolved according to neutral evolution, we have been able to detect one site that is under positive selection pressure both in present and past populations. This study is a first step to study the evolution of this microorganism, analysed using direct evidence obtained from ancient remains. PMID:25056622

BitterSweetForest: A random forest based binary classifier to predict bitterness and sweetness of chemical compounds

Science.gov (United States)

Banerjee, Priyanka; Preissner, Robert

2018-04-01

Taste of a chemical compounds present in food stimulates us to take in nutrients and avoid poisons. However, the perception of taste greatly depends on the genetic as well as evolutionary perspectives. The aim of this work was the development and validation of a machine learning model based on molecular fingerprints to discriminate between sweet and bitter taste of molecules. BitterSweetForest is the first open access model based on KNIME workflow that provides platform for prediction of bitter and sweet taste of chemical compounds using molecular fingerprints and Random Forest based classifier. The constructed model yielded an accuracy of 95% and an AUC of 0.98 in cross-validation. In independent test set, BitterSweetForest achieved an accuracy of 96 % and an AUC of 0.98 for bitter and sweet taste prediction. The constructed model was further applied to predict the bitter and sweet taste of natural compounds, approved drugs as well as on an acute toxicity compound data set. BitterSweetForest suggests 70% of the natural product space, as bitter and 10 % of the natural product space as sweet with confidence score of 0.60 and above. 77 % of the approved drug set was predicted as bitter and 2% as sweet with a confidence scores of 0.75 and above. Similarly, 75% of the total compounds from acute oral toxicity class were predicted only as bitter with a minimum confidence score of 0.75, revealing toxic compounds are mostly bitter. Furthermore, we applied a Bayesian based feature analysis method to discriminate the most occurring chemical features between sweet and bitter compounds from the feature space of a circular fingerprint.

The TL dating of ancient porcelain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leung, P.L.; Stokes, M.J.; Wang Weida; Xia Junding; Zhou Zhixin

1997-01-01

The age determination of ancient porcelain using the pre-dose technique in TL dating was reported. The variation of beta dose with depth below the surface of the porcelain slice, the thermal activation characteristic (TAC) for 110 degree C peak, the measurement of paleodose and the estimation of annual dose were studied. The results show that this technique is suitable for authenticity testing of ancient porcelain, but both accuracy and precision for porcelain dating are worse than those for pottery, because porcelain differs from pottery on composition, structure and firing temperature. Besides, some complicated factors in the pre-dose technique would be the possible cause of the greater errors

TREATMENT OF FRACTURES IN ANCIENT EGYPT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Z. K. Bashurov

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The most complete information about the medicine in Ancient Egypt two papyrus provided: a large medical papyrus of G. Ebers and papyrus about the surgery of E. Smith. Smith’s papyrus is of particular interest as it contains the information on the status of surgery in Ancient Egypt. Papyrus consists of descriptions of the clinical cases. To the present time, 48 cases have survived; it is arranged in order of location - from the head down to the feet. Orthopedic deformities were reflected in the figures on the walls of the pyramids and temples as well as the description of the mummies and archaeological finds.

Issue of Separation of Powers in Ancient Iran

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohammad Javad Javid

2012-03-01

Full Text Available Cotemporary public law in Iran cannot ignore the elements of its identity in the past. Although analysis of public law issue in ancient Iran, the most researchers to be considered so it is not easy to speak about separation of powers, the part of the body of public law in the Iran primary governments but this article constants on hypothesis which with think and assimilation in history of ancient Iran which can laying the groundwork of strengthening people rights and limitation of authority's governors with emphasis on three periods of governorship on ancient Iran .for example Hakhamaneshian, Ashkanian and Sasanian. This article intent to clear haw can in these periods, the primary figure and foundation of separation of powers and functions division in body of previous governments of Iran to be observed.

Application of nuclear analysis techniques in ancient chinese porcelain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Feng Songlin; Xu Qing; Feng Xiangqian; Lei Yong; Cheng Lin; Wang Yanqing

2005-01-01

Ancient ceramic was fired with porcelain clay. It contains various provenance information and age characteristic. It is the scientific foundation of studying Chinese porcelain to analyze and research the ancient ceramic with modern analysis methods. According to the property of nuclear analysis technique, its function and application are discussed. (authors)

Bayesian inference for psychology. Part I : Theoretical advantages and practical ramifications

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wagenmakers, E.-J.; Marsman, M.; Jamil, T.; Ly, A.; Verhagen, J.; Love, J.; Selker, R.; Gronau, Q.F.; Šmíra, M.; Epskamp, S.; Matzke, D.; Rouder, J.N.; Morey, R.D.

2018-01-01

Bayesian parameter estimation and Bayesian hypothesis testing present attractive alternatives to classical inference using confidence intervals and p values. In part I of this series we outline ten prominent advantages of the Bayesian approach. Many of these advantages translate to concrete

History through Art and Architecture: Ancient Greek Architecture [and] Ancient Greek Sculpture. Teacher's Manual.

Science.gov (United States)

Campbell, Ann

This document consists of two teaching manuals designed to accompany a commercially-available "multicultural, interdisciplinary video program," consisting of four still videotape programs (72 minutes, 226 frames), one teaching poster, and these two manuals. "Teacher's Manual: Ancient Greek Architecture" covers: "Ancient…

A tutorial introduction to Bayesian models of cognitive development.

Science.gov (United States)

Perfors, Amy; Tenenbaum, Joshua B; Griffiths, Thomas L; Xu, Fei

2011-09-01

We present an introduction to Bayesian inference as it is used in probabilistic models of cognitive development. Our goal is to provide an intuitive and accessible guide to the what, the how, and the why of the Bayesian approach: what sorts of problems and data the framework is most relevant for, and how and why it may be useful for developmentalists. We emphasize a qualitative understanding of Bayesian inference, but also include information about additional resources for those interested in the cognitive science applications, mathematical foundations, or machine learning details in more depth. In addition, we discuss some important interpretation issues that often arise when evaluating Bayesian models in cognitive science. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Approximate Bayesian evaluations of measurement uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Possolo, Antonio; Bodnar, Olha

2018-04-01

The Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM) includes formulas that produce an estimate of a scalar output quantity that is a function of several input quantities, and an approximate evaluation of the associated standard uncertainty. This contribution presents approximate, Bayesian counterparts of those formulas for the case where the output quantity is a parameter of the joint probability distribution of the input quantities, also taking into account any information about the value of the output quantity available prior to measurement expressed in the form of a probability distribution on the set of possible values for the measurand. The approximate Bayesian estimates and uncertainty evaluations that we present have a long history and illustrious pedigree, and provide sufficiently accurate approximations in many applications, yet are very easy to implement in practice. Differently from exact Bayesian estimates, which involve either (analytical or numerical) integrations, or Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampling, the approximations that we describe involve only numerical optimization and simple algebra. Therefore, they make Bayesian methods widely accessible to metrologists. We illustrate the application of the proposed techniques in several instances of measurement: isotopic ratio of silver in a commercial silver nitrate; odds of cryptosporidiosis in AIDS patients; height of a manometer column; mass fraction of chromium in a reference material; and potential-difference in a Zener voltage standard.

Ancient Egypt: Personal Perspectives.

Science.gov (United States)

Wolinski, Arelene

This teacher resource book provides information on ancient Egypt via short essays, photographs, maps, charts, and drawings. Egyptian social and religious life, including writing, art, architecture, and even the practice of mummification, is conveniently summarized for the teacher or other practitioner in a series of one to three page articles with…

Ancient literature in the teaching of the Ljubljana jesuits

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nada Grošelj

2004-12-01

Full Text Available Members of the Jesuit Order came to Ljubljana in 1597, founding a »gymnasium« and later expanding it with a semi-university. In contrast to certain other orders, they fostered the classics, as is evidenced by their teaching, scholarly research, and literary composition. The scholarly work of the Jesuits active in present-day Slovenia was mostly concentrated on ancient philosophy, as is shown in the second section of this paper. Their teaching, on the other hand, included both classroom lessons and more creative activities, such as the writing and staging of school plays. The Jesuit school system with its six gymnasium classes is described in the first section of the paper, and the school curriculum (based almost exclusively on the teaching of Latin literature and methods in the third. The fourth section presents the documents relating to the final gymnasium examinations in ancient literature which took place in Ljubljana, with a survey of the contents of the questions. The fifth section outlines the characteristics of Jesuit school drama. The plays performed in Ljubljana are lost, but, judging by the preserved titles and synopses, ancient themes appear to have been relatively rare. Nevertheless, the paper succeeds in isolating seventeen works (discussed in the sixth section which must have either utilised plots from ancient literature or drawn inspiration from ancient stock characters and rhetoric.

Study on shielded pump system failure analysis method based on Bayesian network

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bao Yilan; Huang Gaofeng; Tong Lili; Cao Xuewu

2012-01-01

This paper applies Bayesian network to the system failure analysis, with an aim to improve knowledge representation of the uncertainty logic and multi-fault states in system failure analysis. A Bayesian network for shielded pump failure analysis is presented, conducting fault parameter learning, updating Bayesian network parameter based on new samples. Finally, through the Bayesian network inference, vulnerability in this system, the largest possible failure modes, and the fault probability are obtained. The powerful ability of Bayesian network to analyze system fault is illustrated by examples. (authors)

Bayesian Dark Knowledge

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Korattikara, A.; Rathod, V.; Murphy, K.; Welling, M.; Cortes, C.; Lawrence, N.D.; Lee, D.D.; Sugiyama, M.; Garnett, R.

2015-01-01

We consider the problem of Bayesian parameter estimation for deep neural networks, which is important in problem settings where we may have little data, and/ or where we need accurate posterior predictive densities p(y|x, D), e.g., for applications involving bandits or active learning. One simple

Bayesian grid matching

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hartelius, Karsten; Carstensen, Jens Michael

2003-01-01

A method for locating distorted grid structures in images is presented. The method is based on the theories of template matching and Bayesian image restoration. The grid is modeled as a deformable template. Prior knowledge of the grid is described through a Markov random field (MRF) model which r...

Sin, Punishment And Forgiveness In Ancient Greek Religion: A ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper looks in particular at the special sin of hubris in ancient Greek religious thought. It examines what constitutes hubris and some cases in which hubris has been committed and punished. It demonstrates with examples that hubris is an unforgivable sin in ancient Greek religion and examines the reasons for this ...

Translation: an example from ancient Chinese to modern Chinese

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Liu, X; Hoede, C.

2002-01-01

In this paper, we gave an idea of translation by means of knowledge graph theory from ancient Chinese to modern Chinese, by using an example story. Actually, we give the details of the method of translation from ancient Chinese to modern Chinese step by step as carried out by hand. From the example,

An introduction to Bayesian statistics in health psychology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Depaoli, Sarah; Rus, Holly; Clifton, James; van de Schoot, A.G.J.; Tiemensma, Jitske

2017-01-01

The aim of the current article is to provide a brief introduction to Bayesian statistics within the field of Health Psychology. Bayesian methods are increasing in prevalence in applied fields, and they have been shown in simulation research to improve the estimation accuracy of structural equation

Bayesian estimation of the discrete coefficient of determination.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Ting; Braga-Neto, Ulisses M

2016-12-01

The discrete coefficient of determination (CoD) measures the nonlinear interaction between discrete predictor and target variables and has had far-reaching applications in Genomic Signal Processing. Previous work has addressed the inference of the discrete CoD using classical parametric and nonparametric approaches. In this paper, we introduce a Bayesian framework for the inference of the discrete CoD. We derive analytically the optimal minimum mean-square error (MMSE) CoD estimator, as well as a CoD estimator based on the Optimal Bayesian Predictor (OBP). For the latter estimator, exact expressions for its bias, variance, and root-mean-square (RMS) are given. The accuracy of both Bayesian CoD estimators with non-informative and informative priors, under fixed or random parameters, is studied via analytical and numerical approaches. We also demonstrate the application of the proposed Bayesian approach in the inference of gene regulatory networks, using gene-expression data from a previously published study on metastatic melanoma.

A Bayesian approach to particle identification in ALICE

CERN Multimedia

CERN. Geneva

2016-01-01

Among the LHC experiments, ALICE has unique particle identification (PID) capabilities exploiting different types of detectors. During Run 1, a Bayesian approach to PID was developed and intensively tested. It facilitates the combination of information from different sub-systems. The adopted methodology and formalism as well as the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE will be reviewed. Results are presented with PID performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight using information from the TPC and TOF detectors, respectively. Methods to extract priors from data and to compare PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities in data and Monte Carlo using high-purity samples of identified particles will be presented. Bayesian PID results were found consistent with previous measurements published by ALICE. The Bayesian PID approach gives a higher signal-to-background ratio and a similar or larger statist...

Optimal Detection under the Restricted Bayesian Criterion

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shujun Liu

2017-07-01

Full Text Available This paper aims to find a suitable decision rule for a binary composite hypothesis-testing problem with a partial or coarse prior distribution. To alleviate the negative impact of the information uncertainty, a constraint is considered that the maximum conditional risk cannot be greater than a predefined value. Therefore, the objective of this paper becomes to find the optimal decision rule to minimize the Bayes risk under the constraint. By applying the Lagrange duality, the constrained optimization problem is transformed to an unconstrained optimization problem. In doing so, the restricted Bayesian decision rule is obtained as a classical Bayesian decision rule corresponding to a modified prior distribution. Based on this transformation, the optimal restricted Bayesian decision rule is analyzed and the corresponding algorithm is developed. Furthermore, the relation between the Bayes risk and the predefined value of the constraint is also discussed. The Bayes risk obtained via the restricted Bayesian decision rule is a strictly decreasing and convex function of the constraint on the maximum conditional risk. Finally, the numerical results including a detection example are presented and agree with the theoretical results.

Bayesian approach and application to operation safety

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Procaccia, H.; Suhner, M.Ch.

2003-01-01

The management of industrial risks requires the development of statistical and probabilistic analyses which use all the available convenient information in order to compensate the insufficient experience feedback in a domain where accidents and incidents remain too scarce to perform a classical statistical frequency analysis. The Bayesian decision approach is well adapted to this problem because it integrates both the expertise and the experience feedback. The domain of knowledge is widen, the forecasting study becomes possible and the decisions-remedial actions are strengthen thanks to risk-cost-benefit optimization analyzes. This book presents the bases of the Bayesian approach and its concrete applications in various industrial domains. After a mathematical presentation of the industrial operation safety concepts and of the Bayesian approach principles, this book treats of some of the problems that can be solved thanks to this approach: softwares reliability, controls linked with the equipments warranty, dynamical updating of databases, expertise modeling and weighting, Bayesian optimization in the domains of maintenance, quality control, tests and design of new equipments. A synthesis of the mathematical formulae used in this approach is given in conclusion. (J.S.)

Determination of ancient ceramics reference material by neutron activation analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li Huhou; Sun Jingxin; Wang Yuqi; Lu Liangcai

1986-01-01

Contents of trace elements in the reference material of ancient ceramics (KPS-1) were determined by means of activation analysis, using thermal neutron irradiation produced in nuclear reactor. KPS-1 favoured the analysis of ancient ceramics because it had not only many kinds of element but also appropriate contents of composition. The values presented here are reliable within the experimental precision, and have shown that the reference material had a good homogeneity. So KPS-1 can be used as a suitable reference material for the ancient ceramics analysis

Towards Bayesian Inference of the Fast-Ion Distribution Function

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stagner, L.; Heidbrink, W.W.; Salewski, Mirko

2012-01-01

sensitivity of the measurements are incorporated into Bayesian likelihood probabilities, while prior probabilities enforce physical constraints. As an initial step, this poster uses Bayesian statistics to infer the DIII-D electron density profile from multiple diagnostic measurements. Likelihood functions....... However, when theory and experiment disagree (for one or more diagnostics), it is unclear how to proceed. Bayesian statistics provides a framework to infer the DF, quantify errors, and reconcile discrepant diagnostic measurements. Diagnostic errors and ``weight functions" that describe the phase space...

Bayesian Correlation Analysis for Sequence Count Data.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel Sánchez-Taltavull

Full Text Available Evaluating the similarity of different measured variables is a fundamental task of statistics, and a key part of many bioinformatics algorithms. Here we propose a Bayesian scheme for estimating the correlation between different entities' measurements based on high-throughput sequencing data. These entities could be different genes or miRNAs whose expression is measured by RNA-seq, different transcription factors or histone marks whose expression is measured by ChIP-seq, or even combinations of different types of entities. Our Bayesian formulation accounts for both measured signal levels and uncertainty in those levels, due to varying sequencing depth in different experiments and to varying absolute levels of individual entities, both of which affect the precision of the measurements. In comparison with a traditional Pearson correlation analysis, we show that our Bayesian correlation analysis retains high correlations when measurement confidence is high, but suppresses correlations when measurement confidence is low-especially for entities with low signal levels. In addition, we consider the influence of priors on the Bayesian correlation estimate. Perhaps surprisingly, we show that naive, uniform priors on entities' signal levels can lead to highly biased correlation estimates, particularly when different experiments have widely varying sequencing depths. However, we propose two alternative priors that provably mitigate this problem. We also prove that, like traditional Pearson correlation, our Bayesian correlation calculation constitutes a kernel in the machine learning sense, and thus can be used as a similarity measure in any kernel-based machine learning algorithm. We demonstrate our approach on two RNA-seq datasets and one miRNA-seq dataset.

A new look at old bread: ancient Egyptian baking

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Delwen Samuel

1999-11-01

Full Text Available Despite abundant archaeological, pictorial and textual evidence of ancient Egyptian life and death, we have little detailed information about the staple diet of most of the population. Now experimental work by a postdoctoral Wellcome Research Fellow in Bioarchaeology at the Institute is revealing how the ancient Egyptians made their daily bread.

A Bayesian approach to meta-analysis of plant pathology studies.

Science.gov (United States)

Mila, A L; Ngugi, H K

2011-01-01

Bayesian statistical methods are used for meta-analysis in many disciplines, including medicine, molecular biology, and engineering, but have not yet been applied for quantitative synthesis of plant pathology studies. In this paper, we illustrate the key concepts of Bayesian statistics and outline the differences between Bayesian and classical (frequentist) methods in the way parameters describing population attributes are considered. We then describe a Bayesian approach to meta-analysis and present a plant pathological example based on studies evaluating the efficacy of plant protection products that induce systemic acquired resistance for the management of fire blight of apple. In a simple random-effects model assuming a normal distribution of effect sizes and no prior information (i.e., a noninformative prior), the results of the Bayesian meta-analysis are similar to those obtained with classical methods. Implementing the same model with a Student's t distribution and a noninformative prior for the effect sizes, instead of a normal distribution, yields similar results for all but acibenzolar-S-methyl (Actigard) which was evaluated only in seven studies in this example. Whereas both the classical (P = 0.28) and the Bayesian analysis with a noninformative prior (95% credibility interval [CRI] for the log response ratio: -0.63 to 0.08) indicate a nonsignificant effect for Actigard, specifying a t distribution resulted in a significant, albeit variable, effect for this product (CRI: -0.73 to -0.10). These results confirm the sensitivity of the analytical outcome (i.e., the posterior distribution) to the choice of prior in Bayesian meta-analyses involving a limited number of studies. We review some pertinent literature on more advanced topics, including modeling of among-study heterogeneity, publication bias, analyses involving a limited number of studies, and methods for dealing with missing data, and show how these issues can be approached in a Bayesian framework

Bayesian and Classical Machine Learning Methods: A Comparison for Tree Species Classification with LiDAR Waveform Signatures

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tan Zhou

2017-12-01

Full Text Available A plethora of information contained in full-waveform (FW Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR data offers prospects for characterizing vegetation structures. This study aims to investigate the capacity of FW LiDAR data alone for tree species identification through the integration of waveform metrics with machine learning methods and Bayesian inference. Specifically, we first conducted automatic tree segmentation based on the waveform-based canopy height model (CHM using three approaches including TreeVaW, watershed algorithms and the combination of TreeVaW and watershed (TW algorithms. Subsequently, the Random forests (RF and Conditional inference forests (CF models were employed to identify important tree-level waveform metrics derived from three distinct sources, such as raw waveforms, composite waveforms, the waveform-based point cloud and the combined variables from these three sources. Further, we discriminated tree (gray pine, blue oak, interior live oak and shrub species through the RF, CF and Bayesian multinomial logistic regression (BMLR using important waveform metrics identified in this study. Results of the tree segmentation demonstrated that the TW algorithms outperformed other algorithms for delineating individual tree crowns. The CF model overcomes waveform metrics selection bias caused by the RF model which favors correlated metrics and enhances the accuracy of subsequent classification. We also found that composite waveforms are more informative than raw waveforms and waveform-based point cloud for characterizing tree species in our study area. Both classical machine learning methods (the RF and CF and the BMLR generated satisfactory average overall accuracy (74% for the RF, 77% for the CF and 81% for the BMLR and the BMLR slightly outperformed the other two methods. However, these three methods suffered from low individual classification accuracy for the blue oak which is prone to being misclassified as the interior live oak due

Inference in hybrid Bayesian networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Langseth, Helge; Nielsen, Thomas D.; Rumi, Rafael; Salmeron, Antonio

2009-01-01

Since the 1980s, Bayesian networks (BNs) have become increasingly popular for building statistical models of complex systems. This is particularly true for boolean systems, where BNs often prove to be a more efficient modelling framework than traditional reliability techniques (like fault trees and reliability block diagrams). However, limitations in the BNs' calculation engine have prevented BNs from becoming equally popular for domains containing mixtures of both discrete and continuous variables (the so-called hybrid domains). In this paper we focus on these difficulties, and summarize some of the last decade's research on inference in hybrid Bayesian networks. The discussions are linked to an example model for estimating human reliability.

Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

Science.gov (United States)

Raj, Rahul; van der Tol, Christiaan; Hamm, Nicholas Alexander Samuel; Stein, Alfred

2018-01-01

Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP) data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT), ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC), ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf), canopy water interception coefficient (Wint), fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR), and effective soil rooting depth (SD) characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

Bayesian integration of flux tower data into a process-based simulator for quantifying uncertainty in simulated output

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Raj

2018-01-01

Full Text Available Parameters of a process-based forest growth simulator are difficult or impossible to obtain from field observations. Reliable estimates can be obtained using calibration against observations of output and state variables. In this study, we present a Bayesian framework to calibrate the widely used process-based simulator Biome-BGC against estimates of gross primary production (GPP data. We used GPP partitioned from flux tower measurements of a net ecosystem exchange over a 55-year-old Douglas fir stand as an example. The uncertainties of both the Biome-BGC parameters and the simulated GPP values were estimated. The calibrated parameters leaf and fine root turnover (LFRT, ratio of fine root carbon to leaf carbon (FRC : LC, ratio of carbon to nitrogen in leaf (C : Nleaf, canopy water interception coefficient (Wint, fraction of leaf nitrogen in RuBisCO (FLNR, and effective soil rooting depth (SD characterize the photosynthesis and carbon and nitrogen allocation in the forest. The calibration improved the root mean square error and enhanced Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency between simulated and flux tower daily GPP compared to the uncalibrated Biome-BGC. Nevertheless, the seasonal cycle for flux tower GPP was not reproduced exactly and some overestimation in spring and underestimation in summer remained after calibration. We hypothesized that the phenology exhibited a seasonal cycle that was not accurately reproduced by the simulator. We investigated this by calibrating the Biome-BGC to each month's flux tower GPP separately. As expected, the simulated GPP improved, but the calibrated parameter values suggested that the seasonal cycle of state variables in the simulator could be improved. It was concluded that the Bayesian framework for calibration can reveal features of the modelled physical processes and identify aspects of the process simulator that are too rigid.

The image recognition based on neural network and Bayesian decision

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Chugege

2018-04-01

The artificial neural network began in 1940, which is an important part of artificial intelligence. At present, it has become a hot topic in the fields of neuroscience, computer science, brain science, mathematics, and psychology. Thomas Bayes firstly reported the Bayesian theory in 1763. After the development in the twentieth century, it has been widespread in all areas of statistics. In recent years, due to the solution of the problem of high-dimensional integral calculation, Bayesian Statistics has been improved theoretically, which solved many problems that cannot be solved by classical statistics and is also applied to the interdisciplinary fields. In this paper, the related concepts and principles of the artificial neural network are introduced. It also summarizes the basic content and principle of Bayesian Statistics, and combines the artificial neural network technology and Bayesian decision theory and implement them in all aspects of image recognition, such as enhanced face detection method based on neural network and Bayesian decision, as well as the image classification based on the Bayesian decision. It can be seen that the combination of artificial intelligence and statistical algorithms has always been the hot research topic.

Editorial: Bayesian benefits for child psychology and psychiatry researchers.

Science.gov (United States)

Oldehinkel, Albertine J

2016-09-01

For many scientists, performing statistical tests has become an almost automated routine. However, p-values are frequently used and interpreted incorrectly; and even when used appropriately, p-values tend to provide answers that do not match researchers' questions and hypotheses well. Bayesian statistics present an elegant and often more suitable alternative. The Bayesian approach has rarely been applied in child psychology and psychiatry research so far, but the development of user-friendly software packages and tutorials has placed it well within reach now. Because Bayesian analyses require a more refined definition of hypothesized probabilities of possible outcomes than the classical approach, going Bayesian may offer the additional benefit of sparkling the development and refinement of theoretical models in our field. © 2016 Association for Child and Adolescent Mental Health.

Intraosseous neurilemmoma of the mandible: Report of a rare ancient type

OpenAIRE

Gholamreza Jahanshahi; Abbas Haghighat; Faezeh Azmoodeh

2011-01-01

The neurilemmoma is a benign neoplasm of Schwann cell origin. One of the histopathologic subtypes of this tumor is ancient schwannoma which is characterized by degenerative alterations including cystic change, calcification, hemorrhage, and hyalinization. Intraosseous schwannomas especially ancient ones are rare tumors. Here we present a case of intraosseous ancient schwannoma in the lower jaw of an 11-year-old girl which caused a non-tender expansion. Radiographic examination showed a well-c...

The evolutionary history of Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx (Myrtaceae) corroborates historically stable areas in the southern Atlantic forests.

Science.gov (United States)

de Oliveira Bünger, Mariana; Fernanda Mazine, Fiorella; Forest, Félix; Leandro Bueno, Marcelo; Renato Stehmann, João; Lucas, Eve J

2016-12-01

Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx Nied. includes 14 species endemic to the Neotropics, mostly distributed in the Atlantic coastal forests of Brazil. Here the first comprehensive phylogenetic study of this group is presented, and this phylogeny is used as the basis to evaluate the recent infrageneric classification in Eugenia sensu lato (s.l.) to test the history of the evolution of traits in the group and test hypotheses associated with the history of this clade. A total of 42 taxa were sampled, of which 14 were Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx for one nuclear (ribosomal internal transcribed spacer) and four plastid markers (psbA-trnH, rpl16, trnL-rpl32 and trnQ-rps16). The relationships were reconstructed based on Bayesian analysis and maximum likelihood. Additionally, ancestral area analysis and modelling methods were used to estimate species dispersal, comparing historically climatic stable (refuges) and unstable areas. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian inferences indicate that Eugenia sect. Phyllocalyx is paraphyletic and the two clades recovered are characterized by combinations of morphological characters. Phylogenetic relationships support a link between Cerrado and south-eastern species and a difference in the composition of species from north-eastern and south-eastern Atlantic forest. Refugia and stable areas identified within unstable areas suggest that these areas were important to maintain diversity in the Atlantic forest biodiversity hotspot. This study provides a robust phylogenetic framework to address important historical questions for Eugenia s.l. within an evolutionary context, supporting the need for better taxonomic study of one of the largest genera in the Neotropics. Furthermore, valuable insight is offered into diversification and biome shifts of plant species in the highly environmentally impacted Atlantic forest of South America. Evidence is presented that climate stability in the south-eastern Atlantic forest during the Quaternary contributed to the

Ancient DNA from marine mammals

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Foote, Andrew David; Hofreiter, Michael; Morin, Philip A.

2012-01-01

such as bone, tooth, baleen, skin, fur, whiskers and scrimshaw using ancient DNA (aDNA) approaches provide an oppor- tunity for investigating such changes over evolutionary and ecological timescales. Here, we review the application of aDNA techniques to the study of marine mammals. Most of the studies have...... focused on detecting changes in genetic diversity following periods of exploitation and environmental change. To date, these studies have shown that even small sample sizes can provide useful information on historical genetic diversity. Ancient DNA has also been used in investigations of changes...... in distribution and range of marine mammal species; we review these studies and discuss the limitations of such ‘presence only’ studies. Combining aDNA data with stable isotopes can provide further insights into changes in ecology and we review past studies and suggest future potential applications. We also...

Bayesian Inference Methods for Sparse Channel Estimation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Pedersen, Niels Lovmand

2013-01-01

This thesis deals with sparse Bayesian learning (SBL) with application to radio channel estimation. As opposed to the classical approach for sparse signal representation, we focus on the problem of inferring complex signals. Our investigations within SBL constitute the basis for the development...... of Bayesian inference algorithms for sparse channel estimation. Sparse inference methods aim at finding the sparse representation of a signal given in some overcomplete dictionary of basis vectors. Within this context, one of our main contributions to the field of SBL is a hierarchical representation...... analysis of the complex prior representation, where we show that the ability to induce sparse estimates of a given prior heavily depends on the inference method used and, interestingly, whether real or complex variables are inferred. We also show that the Bayesian estimators derived from the proposed...

Bayesian-based localization in inhomogeneous transmission media

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nadimi, E. S.; Blanes-Vidal, V.; Johansen, P. M.

2013-01-01

In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network with heteroge......In this paper, we propose a novel robust probabilistic approach based on the Bayesian inference using received-signal-strength (RSS) measurements with varying path-loss exponent. We derived the probability density function (pdf) of the distance between any two sensors in the network...... with heterogeneous transmission medium as a function of the given RSS measurements and the characteristics of the heterogeneous medium. The results of this study show that the localization mean square error (MSE) of the Bayesian-based method outperformed all other existing localization approaches. © 2013 ACM....

Bayesian modeling of ChIP-chip data using latent variables.

KAUST Repository

Wu, Mingqi

2009-10-26

BACKGROUND: The ChIP-chip technology has been used in a wide range of biomedical studies, such as identification of human transcription factor binding sites, investigation of DNA methylation, and investigation of histone modifications in animals and plants. Various methods have been proposed in the literature for analyzing the ChIP-chip data, such as the sliding window methods, the hidden Markov model-based methods, and Bayesian methods. Although, due to the integrated consideration of uncertainty of the models and model parameters, Bayesian methods can potentially work better than the other two classes of methods, the existing Bayesian methods do not perform satisfactorily. They usually require multiple replicates or some extra experimental information to parametrize the model, and long CPU time due to involving of MCMC simulations. RESULTS: In this paper, we propose a Bayesian latent model for the ChIP-chip data. The new model mainly differs from the existing Bayesian models, such as the joint deconvolution model, the hierarchical gamma mixture model, and the Bayesian hierarchical model, in two respects. Firstly, it works on the difference between the averaged treatment and control samples. This enables the use of a simple model for the data, which avoids the probe-specific effect and the sample (control/treatment) effect. As a consequence, this enables an efficient MCMC simulation of the posterior distribution of the model, and also makes the model more robust to the outliers. Secondly, it models the neighboring dependence of probes by introducing a latent indicator vector. A truncated Poisson prior distribution is assumed for the latent indicator variable, with the rationale being justified at length. CONCLUSION: The Bayesian latent method is successfully applied to real and ten simulated datasets, with comparisons with some of the existing Bayesian methods, hidden Markov model methods, and sliding window methods. The numerical results indicate that the

Mineralization of the ancient hydrogeological conditions in the northeast of Ordos basin

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gao Junyi

2012-01-01

Ordos basin, North East, to the Eocene as a turning point, in the generation of the ancient hydrogeological conditions have distinct changes experienced at least two ancient evolution of hydrogeological conditions, that is closed in the early flow into basin Late open drain basin. Closed in the early period of the inner flow basin, since the purpose of layer deposition, the direction of the ancient hydrodynamic interlayer oxidation is consistent with the direction of oxidation. Hydrogeological conditions of the ancient point of view, in the Ordos basin, North East looking for interlayer oxidation zone type uranium has a guiding role. (author)

Anticancer activity of botanical compounds in ancient fermented beverages (review).

Science.gov (United States)

McGovern, P E; Christofidou-Solomidou, M; Wang, W; Dukes, F; Davidson, T; El-Deiry, W S

2010-07-01

Humans around the globe probably discovered natural remedies against disease and cancer by trial and error over the millennia. Biomolecular archaeological analyses of ancient organics, especially plants dissolved or decocted as fermented beverages, have begun to reveal the preliterate histories of traditional pharmacopeias, which often date back thousands of years earlier than ancient textual, ethnohistorical, and ethnological evidence. In this new approach to drug discovery, two case studies from ancient Egypt and China illustrate how ancient medicines can be reconstructed from chemical and archaeological data and their active compounds delimited for testing their anticancer and other medicinal effects. Specifically, isoscopoletin from Artemisia argyi, artemisinin from Artemisia annua, and the latter's more easily assimilated semi-synthetic derivative, artesunate, showed the greatest activity in vitro against lung and colon cancers. In vivo tests of these compounds previously unscreened against lung and pancreatic cancers are planned for the future.

Next Generation Sequencing of Ancient DNA: Requirements, Strategies and Perspectives

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael Knapp

2010-07-01

Full Text Available The invention of next-generation-sequencing has revolutionized almost all fields of genetics, but few have profited from it as much as the field of ancient DNA research. From its beginnings as an interesting but rather marginal discipline, ancient DNA research is now on its way into the centre of evolutionary biology. In less than a year from its invention next-generation-sequencing had increased the amount of DNA sequence data available from extinct organisms by several orders of magnitude. Ancient DNA  research is now not only adding a temporal aspect to evolutionary studies and allowing for the observation of evolution in real time, it also provides important data to help understand the origins of our own species. Here we review progress that has been made in next-generation-sequencing of ancient DNA over the past five years and evaluate sequencing strategies and future directions.

Cosmologies of the ancient Mediterranean world

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John T. Fitzgerald

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Cosmology is concerned with the order of the universe and seeks to provide an account, not only of that order, but also of the mind or reason behind it. In antiquity, the cosmos was usually understood religiously, such that the cosmologies of the ancient Mediterranean world were either religious in nature or constituted a reaction to a religiously conceived understanding of the structures of the universe. The oldest form in which ancient cosmologies occur is myth, which, owing to its elasticity as a form, enabled them to be appropriated, adapted and used by different groups. In addition, different cosmologies co-existed within the same ancient culture, each having an authoritative status. This article provides an introductory overview of these cosmological myths and argues that a comparative approach is the most fruitful way to study them. Emphasis is given to certain prominent cosmological topics, including theogony (the genesis of the divine or the relationship of the divine to the cosmos, cosmogony (the genesis of the cosmos, and anthropogony (the origin of humans within the cosmos. Although these myths vary greatly in terms of content and how they envision the origin of the cosmos, many of them depict death as part of the structure of the universe.

Fully probabilistic design of hierarchical Bayesian models

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Quinn, A.; Kárný, Miroslav; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

2016-01-01

Roč. 369, č. 1 (2016), s. 532-547 ISSN 0020-0255 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA13-13502S Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : Fully probabilistic design * Ideal distribution * Minimum cross-entropy principle * Bayesian conditioning * Kullback-Leibler divergence * Bayesian nonparametric modelling Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research Impact factor: 4.832, year: 2016 http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2016/AS/karny-0463052.pdf

Flood quantile estimation at ungauged sites by Bayesian networks

Science.gov (United States)

Mediero, L.; Santillán, D.; Garrote, L.

2012-04-01

Estimating flood quantiles at a site for which no observed measurements are available is essential for water resources planning and management. Ungauged sites have no observations about the magnitude of floods, but some site and basin characteristics are known. The most common technique used is the multiple regression analysis, which relates physical and climatic basin characteristic to flood quantiles. Regression equations are fitted from flood frequency data and basin characteristics at gauged sites. Regression equations are a rigid technique that assumes linear relationships between variables and cannot take the measurement errors into account. In addition, the prediction intervals are estimated in a very simplistic way from the variance of the residuals in the estimated model. Bayesian networks are a probabilistic computational structure taken from the field of Artificial Intelligence, which have been widely and successfully applied to many scientific fields like medicine and informatics, but application to the field of hydrology is recent. Bayesian networks infer the joint probability distribution of several related variables from observations through nodes, which represent random variables, and links, which represent causal dependencies between them. A Bayesian network is more flexible than regression equations, as they capture non-linear relationships between variables. In addition, the probabilistic nature of Bayesian networks allows taking the different sources of estimation uncertainty into account, as they give a probability distribution as result. A homogeneous region in the Tagus Basin was selected as case study. A regression equation was fitted taking the basin area, the annual maximum 24-hour rainfall for a given recurrence interval and the mean height as explanatory variables. Flood quantiles at ungauged sites were estimated by Bayesian networks. Bayesian networks need to be learnt from a huge enough data set. As observational data are reduced, a

Bayesian estimation inherent in a Mexican-hat-type neural network

Science.gov (United States)

Takiyama, Ken

2016-05-01

Brain functions, such as perception, motor control and learning, and decision making, have been explained based on a Bayesian framework, i.e., to decrease the effects of noise inherent in the human nervous system or external environment, our brain integrates sensory and a priori information in a Bayesian optimal manner. However, it remains unclear how Bayesian computations are implemented in the brain. Herein, I address this issue by analyzing a Mexican-hat-type neural network, which was used as a model of the visual cortex, motor cortex, and prefrontal cortex. I analytically demonstrate that the dynamics of an order parameter in the model corresponds exactly to a variational inference of a linear Gaussian state-space model, a Bayesian estimation, when the strength of recurrent synaptic connectivity is appropriately stronger than that of an external stimulus, a plausible condition in the brain. This exact correspondence can reveal the relationship between the parameters in the Bayesian estimation and those in the neural network, providing insight for understanding brain functions.

Cryptic genetic diversity is paramount in small-bodied amphibians of the genus Euparkerella (Anura: Craugastoridae endemic to the Brazilian Atlantic forest.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luciana A Fusinatto

Full Text Available Morphological similarity associated to restricted distributions and low dispersal abilities make the direct developing "Terrarana" frogs of the genus Euparkerella a good model for examining diversification processes. We here infer phylogenetic relationships within the genus Euparkerella, using DNA sequence data from one mitochondrial and four nuclear genes coupled with traditional Bayesian phylogenetic reconstruction approaches and more recent coalescent methods of species tree inference. We also used Bayesian clustering analysis and a recent Bayesian coalescent-based approach specifically to infer species delimitation. The analysis of 39 individuals from the four known Euparkerella species uncovered high levels of genetic diversity, especially within the two previously morphologically-defined E. cochranae and E. brasiliensis. Within these species, the gene trees at five independent loci and trees from combined data (concatenated dataset and the species tree uncovered six deeply diverged and geographically coherent evolutionary units, which may have diverged between the Miocene and the Pleistocene. These six units were also uncovered in the Bayesian clustering analysis, and supported by the Bayesian coalescent-based species delimitation (BPP, and Genealogical Sorting Index (GSI, providing thus strong evidence for underestimation of the current levels of diversity within Euparkerella. The cryptic diversity now uncovered opens new opportunities to examine the origins and maintenance of microendemism in the context of spatial heterogeneity and/or human induced fragmentation of the highly threatened Brazilian Atlantic forest hotspot.

The importance of studying inherited hematological disorders in ancient Anatolian populations

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yeşim Doğan Alakoç

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Before analysis of DNA from ancient remains was possible, anthropologists studied evolution and migration patterns using data obtained from population genetic studies on modern populations combined with data obtained from morphological evaluations of ancient remains. Currently, DNA analysis of ancient populations is making a valuable contribution to these efforts. Researchers that perform ancient DNA analysis prefer to study polymorphisms on the Y chromosome or mitochondrial DNA because the results are easier to statistically evaluate. To evaluate polymorphisms on diploid genomes, which are more informative, only mutations that have been extensively examined in modern populations should be chosen. The most extensively evaluated mutations are those related to prevalent inherited disorders. As such, beta-thalassemia, sickle cell anemia, FVL mutation of globin and the factor V genes are good candidates for DNA studies in ancient populations. These mutations are common in Anatolia, host to many civilizations since the Paleolithic period. This history makes Anatolia a good place for conducting research that could enhance our understanding of human evolution and migration patterns.

Printing Ancient Terracotta Warriors

Science.gov (United States)

Gadecki, Victoria L.

2010-01-01

Standing in awe in Xian, China, at the Terra Cotta warrior archaeological site, the author thought of sharing this experience and excitement with her sixth-grade students. She decided to let her students carve patterns of the ancient soldiers to understand their place in Chinese history. They would make block prints and print multiple soldiers on…

Nonparametric Bayesian Modeling of Complex Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Schmidt, Mikkel Nørgaard; Mørup, Morten

2013-01-01

an infinite mixture model as running example, we go through the steps of deriving the model as an infinite limit of a finite parametric model, inferring the model parameters by Markov chain Monte Carlo, and checking the model?s fit and predictive performance. We explain how advanced nonparametric models......Modeling structure in complex networks using Bayesian nonparametrics makes it possible to specify flexible model structures and infer the adequate model complexity from the observed data. This article provides a gentle introduction to nonparametric Bayesian modeling of complex networks: Using...

Strong influence of long-distance edge effect on herb-layer vegetation in forest fragments in an agricultural landscape

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Hofmeister, J.; Hošek, J.; Brabec, Marek; Hédl, Radim; Modrý, M.

2013-01-01

Roč. 15, č. 6 (2013), s. 293-303 ISSN 1433-8319 Grant - others:GA MŽP(CZ) SM/6/69/05; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/2D3/139/07 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 ; RVO:67985939 Keywords : ancient forest * edge effect * habitat fragmentation * light condition * soil nutrients * species richness Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research; EH - Ecology, Behaviour (BU-J) Impact factor: 3.324, year: 2013

Comprehension and computation in Bayesian problem solving

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eric D. Johnson

2015-07-01

Full Text Available Humans have long been characterized as poor probabilistic reasoners when presented with explicit numerical information. Bayesian word problems provide a well-known example of this, where even highly educated and cognitively skilled individuals fail to adhere to mathematical norms. It is widely agreed that natural frequencies can facilitate Bayesian reasoning relative to normalized formats (e.g. probabilities, percentages, both by clarifying logical set-subset relations and by simplifying numerical calculations. Nevertheless, between-study performance on transparent Bayesian problems varies widely, and generally remains rather unimpressive. We suggest there has been an over-focus on this representational facilitator (i.e. transparent problem structures at the expense of the specific logical and numerical processing requirements and the corresponding individual abilities and skills necessary for providing Bayesian-like output given specific verbal and numerical input. We further suggest that understanding this task-individual pair could benefit from considerations from the literature on mathematical cognition, which emphasizes text comprehension and problem solving, along with contributions of online executive working memory, metacognitive regulation, and relevant stored knowledge and skills. We conclude by offering avenues for future research aimed at identifying the stages in problem solving at which correct versus incorrect reasoners depart, and how individual difference might influence this time point.

Being Bayesian in a quantum world

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuchs, C.

2005-01-01

Full text: To be a Bayesian about probability theory is to accept that probabilities represent subjective degrees of belief and nothing more. This is in distinction to the idea that probabilities represent long-term frequencies or objective propensities. But, how can a subjective account of probabilities coexist with the existence of quantum mechanics? To accept quantum mechanics is to accept the calculational apparatus of quantum states and the Born rule for determining probabilities in a quantum measurement. If there ever were a place for probabilities to be objective, it ought to be here. This raises the question of whether Bayesianism and quantum mechanics are compatible at all. For the Bayesian, it only suggests that we should rethink what quantum mechanics is about. Is it 'law of nature' or really more 'law of thought'? From transistors to lasers, the evidence is in that we live in a quantum world. One could infer from this that all the elements in the quantum formalism necessarily mirror nature itself: wave functions are so successful as calculational tools precisely because they represent elements of reality. A more Bayesian-like perspective is that if wave functions generate probabilities, then they too must be Bayesian degrees of belief, with all that such a radical idea entails. In particular, quantum probabilities have no firmer hold on reality than the word 'belief' in 'degrees of belief' already indicates. From this perspective, the only sense in which the quantum formalism mirrors nature is through the constraints it places on gambling agents who would like to better navigate through world. One might think that this is thin information, but it is not insubstantial. To the extent that an agent should use quantum mechanics for his uncertainty accounting rather than some other theory tells us something about the world itself - i.e., the world independent of the agent and his particular beliefs at any moment. In this talk, I will try to shore up these

State of the art on forest and shallow landslide interactions illustrated by two studies in the French Alps

Science.gov (United States)

Berger, F.; Dorren, L.; Lopez, J.; Allegra, C.

2009-04-01

The importance of mountain forests in the protection from natural hazards such as landslides was perceived already in ancient cultures. Allusions of these interactions can be found in ancient Greek, Hebrew, Roman and Chinese literature. In modern times, quantitative studies on the role of vegetation on slope stability started flourishing during the 1960's, with particular contributions from the USA, USSR and Japan, followed by Brazil, New Zealand, Canada, Sweden and Taiwan in the 1970's and 1980's. Forests influence slope stability though mechanical and hydrological effects. Empirical and scientific knowledge agree on the fact that the main effects of forests stands are considered to be: • Mechanical stabilisation due to the presence of roots • Soil moisture depletion as a result of transpiration and water interception by the canopy • Surcharge from the weight of trees The first two factors are beneficial to slope stability whilst the latter may be beneficial or harmful depending on the slope steepness and the potential failure mode. Roots type and morphology influence the capacity of a tree to stabilise slopes, although the failure surface has to be effectively penetrated by the roots in order to be stabilised. Generally, however, forests are considered beneficial for slope stabilization within the soil depth prospected by the tree's root system. So forest stands, depending on the slope value, the hydrological condition and the soil substrata, could have a positive effect on shallow landslide mitigation. Much of the research in the European Alps, however, focuses on the protection awarded by forests against avalanches and rockfalls, whilst little has been done to quantify their protection against landslides. This is in contrast with other mountain regions in the world (Oregon, Himalaya, Japan, British Columbia), where the relations between forests and landslides has been and continues to be studied throughoutly. In order to develop an efficient shallow

Inferring the palaeoenvironment of ancient bacteria on the basis of resurrected proteins

Science.gov (United States)

Gaucher, Eric A.; Thomson, J. Michael; Burgan, Michelle F.; Benner, Steven A.

2003-01-01

Features of the physical environment surrounding an ancestral organism can be inferred by reconstructing sequences of ancient proteins made by those organisms, resurrecting these proteins in the laboratory, and measuring their properties. Here, we resurrect candidate sequences for elongation factors of the Tu family (EF-Tu) found at ancient nodes in the bacterial evolutionary tree, and measure their activities as a function of temperature. The ancient EF-Tu proteins have temperature optima of 55-65 degrees C. This value seems to be robust with respect to uncertainties in the ancestral reconstruction. This suggests that the ancient bacteria that hosted these particular genes were thermophiles, and neither hyperthermophiles nor mesophiles. This conclusion can be compared and contrasted with inferences drawn from an analysis of the lengths of branches in trees joining proteins from contemporary bacteria, the distribution of thermophily in derived bacterial lineages, the inferred G + C content of ancient ribosomal RNA, and the geological record combined with assumptions concerning molecular clocks. The study illustrates the use of experimental palaeobiochemistry and assumptions about deep phylogenetic relationships between bacteria to explore the character of ancient life.

Bayesian approach for the reliability assessment of corroded interdependent pipe networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Mokhtar, El Hassene; Chateauneuf, Alaa; Laggoune, Radouane

2016-01-01

Pipelines under corrosion are subject to various environment conditions, and consequently it becomes difficult to build realistic corrosion models. In the present work, a Bayesian methodology is proposed to allow for updating the corrosion model parameters according to the evolution of environmental conditions. For reliability assessment of dependent structures, Bayesian networks are used to provide interesting qualitative and quantitative description of the information in the system. The qualitative contribution lies in the modeling of complex system, composed by dependent pipelines, as a Bayesian network. The quantitative one lies in the evaluation of the dependencies between pipelines by the use of a new method for the generation of conditional probability tables. The effectiveness of Bayesian updating is illustrated through an application where the new reliability of degraded (corroded) pipe networks is assessed. - Highlights: • A methodology for Bayesian network modeling of pipe networks is proposed. • Bayesian approach based on Metropolis - Hastings algorithm is conducted for corrosion model updating. • The reliability of corroded pipe network is assessed by considering the interdependencies between the pipelines.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jorge Alberto Achcar

2011-12-01

Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using Bayesian spatiotemporal methods. METHODS: We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a Bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. RESULTS: The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI are important in the prediction of malaria cases. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the Bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Use of Poisson spatiotemporal regression models for the Brazilian Amazon Forest: malaria count data.

Science.gov (United States)

Achcar, Jorge Alberto; Martinez, Edson Zangiacomi; Souza, Aparecida Doniseti Pires de; Tachibana, Vilma Mayumi; Flores, Edilson Ferreira

2011-01-01

Malaria is a serious problem in the Brazilian Amazon region, and the detection of possible risk factors could be of great interest for public health authorities. The objective of this article was to investigate the association between environmental variables and the yearly registers of malaria in the Amazon region using bayesian spatiotemporal methods. We used Poisson spatiotemporal regression models to analyze the Brazilian Amazon forest malaria count for the period from 1999 to 2008. In this study, we included some covariates that could be important in the yearly prediction of malaria, such as deforestation rate. We obtained the inferences using a bayesian approach and Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods to simulate samples for the joint posterior distribution of interest. The discrimination of different models was also discussed. The model proposed here suggests that deforestation rate, the number of inhabitants per km², and the human development index (HDI) are important in the prediction of malaria cases. It is possible to conclude that human development, population growth, deforestation, and their associated ecological alterations are conducive to increasing malaria risk. We conclude that the use of Poisson regression models that capture the spatial and temporal effects under the bayesian paradigm is a good strategy for modeling malaria counts.

Application of Ancient DNA Methods to the Study of the Transatlantic Slave Trade

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sandoval Velasco, Marcela

As one of a limited number of biomolecules recording evolutionary events, DNA provides an unparalleled means of investigating genetic processes. Over three decades, ancient DNA research has matured in many ways, growing alongside technological and methodological advancements. However, due to DNA...... means of investigating genetic processes. Over three decades, ancient DNA research has matured in many ways, growing alongside technological and methodological advancements. However, due to DNA preservation, degradation and contamination, ancient DNA research presents significant limitations...... preservation, degradation and contamination, ancient DNA research presents significant limitations and challenges. Until recently, it was thought that DNA did not survive more than few hundred thousand years, and that it was impossible to retrieve whole genome data from ancient samples preserved under...

Bayesian target tracking based on particle filter

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

无

2005-01-01

For being able to deal with the nonlinear or non-Gaussian problems, particle filters have been studied by many researchers. Based on particle filter, the extended Kalman filter (EKF) proposal function is applied to Bayesian target tracking. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method, the resampling step, etc novel techniques are also introduced into Bayesian target tracking. And the simulation results confirm the improved particle filter with these techniques outperforms the basic one.

The building stones of ancient Egypt a gift of its geology

Science.gov (United States)

Klemm, Dietrich D.; Klemm, Rosemarie

2001-08-01

Building stones and clay-rich Nile mud were ancient Egypt's main raw construction materials. While the mud was easily accessible along the Nile river valley, the immense quantities of the different stone materials used for construction of the famous pyramids, precious temples and tombs needed a systematic quarrying organization, well arranged transport logistics over extreme distances and a high standard of stone masonry. The petrography, occurrence, and main applications of the 11 most popular stone types used in ancient Egypt are described in this contribution. Rough estimates of the scale of this mining activity, based on the volume of many different ancient quarry sites, all over Egypt, reveal that the monuments known today represent only a small fraction of the amount of building stones mined during the long, ancient Egyptian history.

Noncausal Bayesian Vector Autoregression

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lanne, Markku; Luoto, Jani

We propose a Bayesian inferential procedure for the noncausal vector autoregressive (VAR) model that is capable of capturing nonlinearities and incorporating effects of missing variables. In particular, we devise a fast and reliable posterior simulator that yields the predictive distribution...

Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

Science.gov (United States)

Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William

2017-09-01

Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

Views of Ancient Egypt. Teacher's Guide. School Arts: Looking/Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Downs, Linda; Brenner, Carla

This teaching guide discusses ancient Egyptian culture, the lithographs made by Napoleon's scientists in 1798-99 to study and record every aspect of Egypt, the world's subsequent fascination with Egypt, ancient Egyptian architecture, Egyptian writing, and archeologists' illustrations of Egypt. The guide suggests activities for elementary school,…

Bayesian statistical inference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruno De Finetti

2017-04-01

Full Text Available This work was translated into English and published in the volume: Bruno De Finetti, Induction and Probability, Biblioteca di Statistica, eds. P. Monari, D. Cocchi, Clueb, Bologna, 1993.Bayesian statistical Inference is one of the last fundamental philosophical papers in which we can find the essential De Finetti's approach to the statistical inference.

Bayesian Exponential Smoothing.

OpenAIRE

Forbes, C.S.; Snyder, R.D.; Shami, R.S.

2000-01-01

In this paper, a Bayesian version of the exponential smoothing method of forecasting is proposed. The approach is based on a state space model containing only a single source of error for each time interval. This model allows us to improve current practices surrounding exponential smoothing by providing both point predictions and measures of the uncertainty surrounding them.

Toward Integrated Analysis of Human Impacts on Forest Biodiversity: Lessons from Latin America

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adrian C. Newton

2009-12-01

Full Text Available Although sustainable forest management (SFM has been widely adopted as a policy and management goal, high rates of forest loss and degradation are still occurring in many areas. Human activities such as logging, livestock husbandry, crop cultivation, infrastructural development, and use of fire are causing widespread loss of biodiversity, restricting progress toward SFM. In such situations, there is an urgent need for tools that can provide an integrated assessment of human impacts on forest biodiversity and that can support decision making related to forest use. This paper summarizes the experience gained by an international collaborative research effort spanning more than a decade, focusing on the tropical montane forests of Mexico and the temperate rain forests of southern South America, both of which are global conservation priorities. The lessons learned from this research are identified, specifically in relation to developing an integrated modeling framework for achieving SFM. Experience has highlighted a number of challenges that need to be overcome in such areas, including the lack of information regarding ecological processes and species characteristics and a lack of forest inventory data, which hinders model parameterization. Quantitative models are poorly developed for some ecological phenomena, such as edge effects and genetic diversity, limiting model integration. Establishment of participatory approaches to forest management is difficult, as a supportive institutional and policy environment is often lacking. However, experience to date suggests that the modeling toolkit approach suggested by Sturvetant et al. (2008 could be of value in such areas. Suggestions are made regarding desirable elements of such a toolkit to support participatory-research approaches in domains characterized by high uncertainty, including Bayesian Belief Networks, spatial multi-criteria analysis, and scenario planning.

Power in Bayesian Mediation Analysis for Small Sample Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Miočević, M.; MacKinnon, David; Levy, Roy

2017-01-01

Bayesian methods have the potential for increasing power in mediation analysis (Koopman, Howe, Hollenbeck, & Sin, 2015; Yuan & MacKinnon, 2009). This article compares the power of Bayesian credibility intervals for the mediated effect to the power of normal theory, distribution of the product,

Bayesian analyses of seasonal runoff forecasts

Science.gov (United States)

Krzysztofowicz, R.; Reese, S.

1991-12-01

Forecasts of seasonal snowmelt runoff volume provide indispensable information for rational decision making by water project operators, irrigation district managers, and farmers in the western United States. Bayesian statistical models and communication frames have been researched in order to enhance the forecast information disseminated to the users, and to characterize forecast skill from the decision maker's point of view. Four products are presented: (i) a Bayesian Processor of Forecasts, which provides a statistical filter for calibrating the forecasts, and a procedure for estimating the posterior probability distribution of the seasonal runoff; (ii) the Bayesian Correlation Score, a new measure of forecast skill, which is related monotonically to the ex ante economic value of forecasts for decision making; (iii) a statistical predictor of monthly cumulative runoffs within the snowmelt season, conditional on the total seasonal runoff forecast; and (iv) a framing of the forecast message that conveys the uncertainty associated with the forecast estimates to the users. All analyses are illustrated with numerical examples of forecasts for six gauging stations from the period 1971 1988.

Bayesian methodology for reliability model acceptance

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Ruoxue; Mahadevan, Sankaran

2003-01-01

This paper develops a methodology to assess the reliability computation model validity using the concept of Bayesian hypothesis testing, by comparing the model prediction and experimental observation, when there is only one computational model available to evaluate system behavior. Time-independent and time-dependent problems are investigated, with consideration of both cases: with and without statistical uncertainty in the model. The case of time-independent failure probability prediction with no statistical uncertainty is a straightforward application of Bayesian hypothesis testing. However, for the life prediction (time-dependent reliability) problem, a new methodology is developed in this paper to make the same Bayesian hypothesis testing concept applicable. With the existence of statistical uncertainty in the model, in addition to the application of a predictor estimator of the Bayes factor, the uncertainty in the Bayes factor is explicitly quantified through treating it as a random variable and calculating the probability that it exceeds a specified value. The developed method provides a rational criterion to decision-makers for the acceptance or rejection of the computational model

Vascular plants promote ancient peatland carbon loss with climate warming.

Science.gov (United States)

Walker, Tom N; Garnett, Mark H; Ward, Susan E; Oakley, Simon; Bardgett, Richard D; Ostle, Nicholas J

2016-05-01

Northern peatlands have accumulated one third of the Earth's soil carbon stock since the last Ice Age. Rapid warming across northern biomes threatens to accelerate rates of peatland ecosystem respiration. Despite compensatory increases in net primary production, greater ecosystem respiration could signal the release of ancient, century- to millennia-old carbon from the peatland organic matter stock. Warming has already been shown to promote ancient peatland carbon release, but, despite the key role of vegetation in carbon dynamics, little is known about how plants influence the source of peatland ecosystem respiration. Here, we address this issue using in situ (14)C measurements of ecosystem respiration on an established peatland warming and vegetation manipulation experiment. Results show that warming of approximately 1 °C promotes respiration of ancient peatland carbon (up to 2100 years old) when dwarf-shrubs or graminoids are present, an effect not observed when only bryophytes are present. We demonstrate that warming likely promotes ancient peatland carbon release via its control over organic inputs from vascular plants. Our findings suggest that dwarf-shrubs and graminoids prime microbial decomposition of previously 'locked-up' organic matter from potentially deep in the peat profile, facilitating liberation of ancient carbon as CO2. Furthermore, such plant-induced peat respiration could contribute up to 40% of ecosystem CO2 emissions. If consistent across other subarctic and arctic ecosystems, this represents a considerable fraction of ecosystem respiration that is currently not acknowledged by global carbon cycle models. Ultimately, greater contribution of ancient carbon to ecosystem respiration may signal the loss of a previously stable peatland carbon pool, creating potential feedbacks to future climate change. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Genomic DNA sequences from mastodon and woolly mammoth reveal deep speciation of forest and savanna elephants.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nadin Rohland

2010-12-01

Full Text Available To elucidate the history of living and extinct elephantids, we generated 39,763 bp of aligned nuclear DNA sequence across 375 loci for African savanna elephant, African forest elephant, Asian elephant, the extinct American mastodon, and the woolly mammoth. Our data establish that the Asian elephant is the closest living relative of the extinct mammoth in the nuclear genome, extending previous findings from mitochondrial DNA analyses. We also find that savanna and forest elephants, which some have argued are the same species, are as or more divergent in the nuclear genome as mammoths and Asian elephants, which are considered to be distinct genera, thus resolving a long-standing debate about the appropriate taxonomic classification of the African elephants. Finally, we document a much larger effective population size in forest elephants compared with the other elephantid taxa, likely reflecting species differences in ancient geographic structure and range and differences in life history traits such as variance in male reproductive success.

Development and comparison of Bayesian modularization method in uncertainty assessment of hydrological models

Science.gov (United States)

Li, L.; Xu, C.-Y.; Engeland, K.

2012-04-01

With respect to model calibration, parameter estimation and analysis of uncertainty sources, different approaches have been used in hydrological models. Bayesian method is one of the most widely used methods for uncertainty assessment of hydrological models, which incorporates different sources of information into a single analysis through Bayesian theorem. However, none of these applications can well treat the uncertainty in extreme flows of hydrological models' simulations. This study proposes a Bayesian modularization method approach in uncertainty assessment of conceptual hydrological models by considering the extreme flows. It includes a comprehensive comparison and evaluation of uncertainty assessments by a new Bayesian modularization method approach and traditional Bayesian models using the Metropolis Hasting (MH) algorithm with the daily hydrological model WASMOD. Three likelihood functions are used in combination with traditional Bayesian: the AR (1) plus Normal and time period independent model (Model 1), the AR (1) plus Normal and time period dependent model (Model 2) and the AR (1) plus multi-normal model (Model 3). The results reveal that (1) the simulations derived from Bayesian modularization method are more accurate with the highest Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency value, and (2) the Bayesian modularization method performs best in uncertainty estimates of entire flows and in terms of the application and computational efficiency. The study thus introduces a new approach for reducing the extreme flow's effect on the discharge uncertainty assessment of hydrological models via Bayesian. Keywords: extreme flow, uncertainty assessment, Bayesian modularization, hydrological model, WASMOD

Pathogens and host immunity in the ancient human oral cavity

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Warinner, Christina; Rodrigues, João F Matias; Vyas, Rounak

2014-01-01

Calcified dental plaque (dental calculus) preserves for millennia and entraps biomolecules from all domains of life and viruses. We report the first, to our knowledge, high-resolution taxonomic and protein functional characterization of the ancient oral microbiome and demonstrate that the oral...... cavity has long served as a reservoir for bacteria implicated in both local and systemic disease. We characterize (i) the ancient oral microbiome in a diseased state, (ii) 40 opportunistic pathogens, (iii) ancient human-associated putative antibiotic resistance genes, (iv) a genome reconstruction...... calculus permits the simultaneous investigation of pathogen activity, host immunity and diet, thereby extending direct investigation of common diseases into the human evolutionary past....

Quantification and presence of human ancient DNA in burial place ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Quantification and presence of human ancient DNA in burial place remains of Turkey using real time polymerase chain reaction. ... A published real-time PCR assay, which allows for the combined analysis of nuclear or ancient DNA and mitochondrial DNA, was modified. This approach can be used for recovering DNA from ...

Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1994-01-01

Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

An Evaluation of the Historical Importance of Fertility and Its Reflection in Ancient Mythology.

Science.gov (United States)

Behjati-Ardakani, Zohreh; Akhondi, Mohammad Mehdi; Mahmoodzadeh, Homa; Hosseini, Seyed Hasan

2016-01-01

Myths are reflective of human concerns and needs during ancient times. By reviewing them, it turns out that many human problems today, have a historical background. Among the main themes of ancient mythologies, fertility and reproduction have various representations in ancient civilizations. The purpose of this paper was to review myths and common symbols of fertility and reproduction in ancient civilizations and evaluate the reasons of their continuous importance in different cultures. The data in this review study was obtained by scrutinizing the related literature. The gathered data indicated the multiplicity and variety of fertility symbols in ancient myths. Most ancient fertility symbols were inspired by the nature and some of them like earth and water were common in mythology of different civilizations. Therefore, the symbols consolidate the concept of conformity between human reproductive concerns and the nature's necessities.

Cheek tooth morphology and ancient mitochondrial DNA of late Pleistocene horses from the western interior of North America: Implications for the taxonomy of North American Late Pleistocene Equus.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christina I Barrón-Ortiz

Full Text Available Horses were a dominant component of North American Pleistocene land mammal communities and their remains are well represented in the fossil record. Despite the abundant material available for study, there is still considerable disagreement over the number of species of Equus that inhabited the different regions of the continent and on their taxonomic nomenclature. In this study, we investigated cheek tooth morphology and ancient mtDNA of late Pleistocene Equus specimens from the Western Interior of North America, with the objective of clarifying the species that lived in this region prior to the end-Pleistocene extinction. Based on the morphological and molecular data analyzed, a caballine (Equus ferus and a non-caballine (E. conversidens species were identified from different localities across most of the Western Interior. A second non-caballine species (E. cedralensis was recognized from southern localities based exclusively on the morphological analyses of the cheek teeth. Notably the separation into caballine and non-caballine species was observed in the Bayesian phylogenetic analysis of ancient mtDNA as well as in the geometric morphometric analyses of the upper and lower premolars. Teeth morphologically identified as E. conversidens that yielded ancient mtDNA fall within the New World stilt-legged clade recognized in previous studies and this is the name we apply to this group. Geographic variation in morphology in the caballine species is indicated by statistically different occlusal enamel patterns in the specimens from Bluefish Caves, Yukon Territory, relative to the specimens from the other geographic regions. Whether this represents ecomorphological variation and/or a certain degree of geographic and genetic isolation of these Arctic populations requires further study.

Spatial and spatio-temporal bayesian models with R - INLA

CERN Document Server

Blangiardo, Marta

2015-01-01

Dedication iiiPreface ix1 Introduction 11.1 Why spatial and spatio-temporal statistics? 11.2 Why do we use Bayesian methods for modelling spatial and spatio-temporal structures? 21.3 Why INLA? 31.4 Datasets 32 Introduction to 212.1 The language 212.2 objects 222.3 Data and session management 342.4 Packages 352.5 Programming in 362.6 Basic statistical analysis with 393 Introduction to Bayesian Methods 533.1 Bayesian Philosophy 533.2 Basic Probability Elements 573.3 Bayes Theorem 623.4 Prior and Posterior Distributions 643.5 Working with the Posterior Distribution 663.6 Choosing the Prior Distr

Ancient tombs in China and shallow land disposal of low-intermediate level radioactive wastes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, Y.; Gu, C.

1987-01-01

The paper summerises the experiences of ancient tombs in China on tomb siting, configuration of tombs, backfilling materials, civil engineering techniques, sealing (or airlight) techniques, drainage system, antiseptic techniques and so on based upon site investigation. Comparison between ancient tombs in China and shallow land disposal of radioactive wastes has been made. The authors point out that the brilliant achievements of ancient tombs in China in keeping ancient corpses and funeral objects is a historical evidence for safety of shallow land disposal of radioactive wastes, and that the main experiences of ancient tombs can be used for reference to shallow land disposal of radioactive wastes

A bayesian approach to classification criteria for spectacled eiders

Science.gov (United States)

Taylor, B.L.; Wade, P.R.; Stehn, R.A.; Cochrane, J.F.

1996-01-01

To facilitate decisions to classify species according to risk of extinction, we used Bayesian methods to analyze trend data for the Spectacled Eider, an arctic sea duck. Trend data from three independent surveys of the Yukon-Kuskokwim Delta were analyzed individually and in combination to yield posterior distributions for population growth rates. We used classification criteria developed by the recovery team for Spectacled Eiders that seek to equalize errors of under- or overprotecting the species. We conducted both a Bayesian decision analysis and a frequentist (classical statistical inference) decision analysis. Bayesian decision analyses are computationally easier, yield basically the same results, and yield results that are easier to explain to nonscientists. With the exception of the aerial survey analysis of the 10 most recent years, both Bayesian and frequentist methods indicated that an endangered classification is warranted. The discrepancy between surveys warrants further research. Although the trend data are abundance indices, we used a preliminary estimate of absolute abundance to demonstrate how to calculate extinction distributions using the joint probability distributions for population growth rate and variance in growth rate generated by the Bayesian analysis. Recent apparent increases in abundance highlight the need for models that apply to declining and then recovering species.

Bayesian Modeling of a Human MMORPG Player

Science.gov (United States)

Synnaeve, Gabriel; Bessière, Pierre

2011-03-01

This paper describes an application of Bayesian programming to the control of an autonomous avatar in a multiplayer role-playing game (the example is based on World of Warcraft). We model a particular task, which consists of choosing what to do and to select which target in a situation where allies and foes are present. We explain the model in Bayesian programming and show how we could learn the conditional probabilities from data gathered during human-played sessions.

MCMC for parameters estimation by bayesian approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ait Saadi, H.; Ykhlef, F.; Guessoum, A.

2011-01-01

This article discusses the parameter estimation for dynamic system by a Bayesian approach associated with Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods (MCMC). The MCMC methods are powerful for approximating complex integrals, simulating joint distributions, and the estimation of marginal posterior distributions, or posterior means. The MetropolisHastings algorithm has been widely used in Bayesian inference to approximate posterior densities. Calibrating the proposal distribution is one of the main issues of MCMC simulation in order to accelerate the convergence.

Genetic Drift. The ancient Egyptian dwarfs of the Walters Art Museum.

Science.gov (United States)

Kozma, Chahira

2010-10-01

The ancient Egyptians left an impressive artistic legacy documenting many aspects of their society including the existence of dwarfs as highly valued members. In previous publications in the Journal, I discussed dwarfs and skeletal dysplasia in ancient Egypt. In this study, I examined the ancient Egyptian representations of dwarfs of the Walters Art Museum in Baltimore, Maryland. One of the highlights of the collection is a group of five ivory figurines from Predynastic Times (pre 3500-3100 BCE) depicting a couple, a man with a child, and two females. Representations from other periods include ordinary as well as dwarf deities. The dwarf gods, Bes and Ptah, are frequently depicted holding or biting snakes or standing on crocodiles symbolizing their ability to ward off dangers. A couple of statuettes from the Greco-Roman Period that, in contrast to earlier Egyptian Periods, depict harsh physical anomalies, twisted bodies, and facial pain. The artistic impression can be interpreted as either tragic or humorous. The grotesque depiction of dwarfs during the Greco-Roman Period in ancient Egypt is believed to be due to a greater infusion of Hellenistic influence. This study provides a microcosm of the legacy of dwarfs in ancient Egypt and supports the premise that dwarfs were accepted and integrated in the ancient Egyptian society, and with a few exceptions, their disorder was not depicted as a physical handicap. Copyright © 2010 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Bayesian Methods for Radiation Detection and Dosimetry

CERN Document Server

Groer, Peter G

2002-01-01

We performed work in three areas: radiation detection, external and internal radiation dosimetry. In radiation detection we developed Bayesian techniques to estimate the net activity of high and low activity radioactive samples. These techniques have the advantage that the remaining uncertainty about the net activity is described by probability densities. Graphs of the densities show the uncertainty in pictorial form. Figure 1 below demonstrates this point. We applied stochastic processes for a method to obtain Bayesian estimates of 222Rn-daughter products from observed counting rates. In external radiation dosimetry we studied and developed Bayesian methods to estimate radiation doses to an individual with radiation induced chromosome aberrations. We analyzed chromosome aberrations after exposure to gammas and neutrons and developed a method for dose-estimation after criticality accidents. The research in internal radiation dosimetry focused on parameter estimation for compartmental models from observed comp...

Bayesian log-periodic model for financial crashes

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Rodríguez-Caballero, Carlos Vladimir; Knapik, Oskar

2014-01-01

This paper introduces a Bayesian approach in econophysics literature about financial bubbles in order to estimate the most probable time for a financial crash to occur. To this end, we propose using noninformative prior distributions to obtain posterior distributions. Since these distributions...... cannot be performed analytically, we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm to draw from posterior distributions. We consider three Bayesian models that involve normal and Student’s t-distributions in the disturbances and an AR(1)-GARCH(1,1) structure only within the first case. In the empirical...... part of the study, we analyze a well-known example of financial bubble – the S&P 500 1987 crash – to show the usefulness of the three methods under consideration and crashes of Merval-94, Bovespa-97, IPCMX-94, Hang Seng-97 using the simplest method. The novelty of this research is that the Bayesian...

Research of Ancient Architectures in Jin-Fen Area Based on GIS&BIM Technology

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Jing; Zheng, Qiuhong; Gao, Huiying; Sun, Hai

2017-05-01

The number of well-preserved ancient buildings located in Shanxi Province, enjoying the absolute maximum proportion of ancient architectures in China, is about 18418, among which, 9053 buildings have the structural style of wood frame. The value of the application of BIM (Building Information Modeling) and GIS (Geographic Information System) is gradually probed and testified in the corresponding fields of ancient architecture’s spatial distribution information management, routine maintenance and special conservation & restoration, the evaluation and simulation of related disasters, such as earthquake. The research objects are ancient architectures in JIN-FEN area, which were first investigated by Sicheng LIANG and recorded in his work of “Chinese ancient architectures survey report”. The research objects, i.e. the ancient architectures in Jin-Fen area include those in Sicheng LIANG’s investigation, and further adjustments were made through authors’ on-site investigation and literature searching & collection. During this research process, the spatial distributing Geodatabase of research objects is established utilizing GIS. The BIM components library for ancient buildings is formed combining on-site investigation data and precedent classic works, such as “Yingzao Fashi”, a treatise on architectural methods in Song Dynasty, “Yongle Encyclopedia” and “Gongcheng Zuofa Zeli”, case collections of engineering practice, by the Ministry of Construction of Qing Dynasty. A building of Guangsheng temple in Hongtong county is selected as an example to elaborate the BIM model construction process based on the BIM components library for ancient buildings. Based on the foregoing work results of spatial distribution data, attribute data of features, 3D graphic information and parametric building information model, the information management system for ancient architectures in Jin-Fen Area, utilizing GIS&BIM technology, could be constructed to support the

Ancient woodland boundaries in Europe

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Szabó, Péter

2010-01-01

Roč. 36, č. 2 (2010), s. 205-214 ISSN 0305-7488 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA600050812 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z60050516 Keywords : ancient woodland * historical ecology * landscape archaeology Subject RIV: EF - Botanics Impact factor: 0.983, year: 2010

Application of NAA in the sort discrimination of the ancient porcelains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jia Xiuqin; Huang Zhongxiang; Han Song

2002-01-01

The neutron activation analysis is applied for analyzing the rare earth elements (REE) and trace elements in the ancient porcelains of Yao Zhou and Ru. The results show that there are differences or even significant differences between glazes and roughcasts of these two ancient porcelains in the gross amounts of REE, normalized diagrams of REE and characteristics of trace element contents, which reflecting the composition differences in glazes and roughcasts of the two kinds of porcelains. Thus, the contents of REE and trace elements can be taken for discriminating the ancient porcelains

Considering Future Potential Regarding Structural Diversity in Selection of Forest Reserves.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johanna Lundström

Full Text Available A rich structural diversity in forests promotes biodiversity. Forests are dynamic and therefore it is crucial to consider future structural potential when selecting reserves, to make robust conservation decisions. We analyzed forests in boreal Sweden based on 17,599 National Forest Inventory (NFI plots with the main aim to understand how effectiveness of reserves depends on the time dimension in the selection process, specifically by considering future structural diversity. In the study both the economic value and future values of 15 structural variables were simulated during a 100 year period. To get a net present structural value (NPSV, a single value covering both current and future values, we used four discounting alternatives: (1 only considering present values, (2 giving equal importance to values in each of the 100 years within the planning horizon, (3 applying an annual discount rate considering the risk that values could be lost, and (4 only considering the values in year 100. The four alternatives were evaluated in a reserve selection model under budget-constrained and area-constrained selections. When selecting young forests higher structural richness could be reached at a quarter of the cost over almost twice the area in a budget-constrained selection compared to an area-constrained selection. Our results point to the importance of considering future structural diversity in the selection of forest reserves and not as is done currently to base the selection on existing values. Targeting future values increases structural diversity and implies a relatively lower cost. Further, our results show that a re-orientation from old to young forests would imply savings while offering a more extensive reserve network with high structural qualities in the future. However, caution must be raised against a drastic reorientation of the current old-forest strategy since remnants of ancient forests will need to be prioritized due to their role for

Inferring Allele Frequency Trajectories from Ancient DNA Indicates That Selection on a Chicken Gene Coincided with Changes in Medieval Husbandry Practices.

Science.gov (United States)

Loog, Liisa; Thomas, Mark G; Barnett, Ross; Allen, Richard; Sykes, Naomi; Paxinos, Ptolemaios D; Lebrasseur, Ophélie; Dobney, Keith; Peters, Joris; Manica, Andrea; Larson, Greger; Eriksson, Anders

2017-08-01

Ancient DNA provides an opportunity to infer the drivers of natural selection by linking allele frequency changes to temporal shifts in environment or cultural practices. However, analyses have often been hampered by uneven sampling and uncertainties in sample dating, as well as being confounded by demographic processes. Here, we present a Bayesian statistical framework for quantifying the timing and strength of selection using ancient DNA that explicitly addresses these challenges. We applied this method to time series data for two loci: TSHR and BCDO2, both hypothesised to have undergone strong and recent selection in domestic chickens. The derived variant in TSHR, associated with reduced aggression to conspecifics and faster onset of egg laying, shows strong selection beginning around 1,100 years ago, coincident with archaeological evidence for intensified chicken production and documented changes in egg and chicken consumption. To our knowledge, this is the first example of preindustrial domesticate trait selection in response to a historically attested cultural shift in food preference. For BCDO2, we find support for selection, but demonstrate that the recent rise in allele frequency could also have been driven by gene flow from imported Asian chickens during more recent breed formations. Our findings highlight that traits found ubiquitously in modern domestic species may not necessarily have originated during the early stages of domestication. In addition, our results demonstrate the importance of precise estimation of allele frequency trajectories through time for understanding the drivers of selection. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution.

BAYESIAN IMAGE RESTORATION, USING CONFIGURATIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Thordis Linda Thorarinsdottir

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop a Bayesian procedure for removing noise from images that can be viewed as noisy realisations of random sets in the plane. The procedure utilises recent advances in configuration theory for noise free random sets, where the probabilities of observing the different boundary configurations are expressed in terms of the mean normal measure of the random set. These probabilities are used as prior probabilities in a Bayesian image restoration approach. Estimation of the remaining parameters in the model is outlined for salt and pepper noise. The inference in the model is discussed in detail for 3 X 3 and 5 X 5 configurations and examples of the performance of the procedure are given.

Ancient Terrestrial Carbon: Lost and Found

Science.gov (United States)

Freeman, K. H.

2017-12-01

Carbon fluxes in terrestrial environments dominate the global carbon cycle. The fluxes of terrestrial carbon are strongly tied to regional climate due to the influences of temperature, water, and nutrient dynamics on plant productivity. However, climate also influences the destruction of terrestrial organic matter, through weathering, erosion, and biomass loss via fire and oxidative microbial processes. Organic geochemical methods enable us to interrogate past terrestrial carbon dynamics and learn how continental processes might accelerate, or mitigate carbon transfer to the atmosphere, and the associated greenhouse warming. Terrestrial soil systems represent the weathering rind of the continents, and are inherently non-depositional and erosive. The production, transport, and depositional processes affecting organics in continental settings each impart their own biases on the amount and characteristics of preserved carbon. Typically, the best archives for biomarker records are sediments in ancient lakes or subaqueous fans, which represents a preservation bias that tends to favor wetter environments. Paleosols, or ancient soils, formed under depositional conditions that, for one reason or another, truncated soil ablation, erosion, or other loss processes. In modern soils, widely ranging organic carbon abundances are almost always substantially greater than the trace amounts of carbon left behind in ancient soils. Even so, measureable amounts of organic biomarkers persist in paleosols. We have been investigating processes that preserve soil organic carbon on geologic timescales, and how these mechanisms may be sensitive to past climate change. Climate-linked changes in temperature, moisture, pH, and weathering processes can impact carbon preservation via organo-mineral sorption, soil biogeochemistry, and stability based on the physical and chemical properties of organic compounds. These will be discussed and illustrated with examples from our studies of Cenozoic

Using k-dependence causal forest to mine the most significant dependency relationships among clinical variables for thyroid disease diagnosis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

LiMin Wang

Full Text Available Numerous data mining models have been proposed to construct computer-aided medical expert systems. Bayesian network classifiers (BNCs are more distinct and understandable than other models. To graphically describe the dependency relationships among clinical variables for thyroid disease diagnosis and ensure the rationality of the diagnosis results, the proposed k-dependence causal forest (KCF model generates a series of submodels in the framework of maximum spanning tree (MST and demonstrates stronger dependence representation. Friedman test on 12 UCI datasets shows that KCF has classification accuracy advantage over the other state-of-the-art BNCs, such as Naive Bayes, tree augmented Naive Bayes, and k-dependence Bayesian classifier. Our extensive experimental comparison on 4 medical datasets also proves the feasibility and effectiveness of KCF in terms of sensitivity and specificity.

Peopling the past: New perspectives on the ancient Maya

OpenAIRE

Robin, Cynthia

2001-01-01

The new direction in Maya archaeology is toward achieving a greater understanding of people and their roles and their relations in the past. To answer emerging humanistic questions about ancient people's lives Mayanists are increasingly making use of new and existing scientific methods from archaeology and other disciplines. Maya archaeology is bridging the divide between the humanities and sciences to answer questions about ancient people previously considered bey...

Homosexuality according to ancient Greek physicians.

Science.gov (United States)

Laios, K; Moschos, M M; Koukaki, E; Kontaxaki, M-I; Androutsos, G

2017-01-01

Homosexuality and pedophilia in ancient Greece greatly concerned many researchers who were mainly interested in highlighting the social aspect of this phenomenon in ancient Greek society. An important source on the subject was the paintings of a man and his lover in attic black and red figured pottery, up to the end of the 5th century BC. Another main source was the information that derived from the texts of ancient Greek literature, especially poetry. Homosexuality was not only referring to relationships between males, but it was also manifested in lesbian love. It is believed that in the Homeric world homosexuality was not favored. In Greek society of the archaic period, the restriction of women at home, the satisfaction of sexual needs with courtesans, the marriage for the purpose of maintaining and managing the property, put women aside, marginalizing them in terms of social life, impeding the cultivation of emotional relationships between sexes. At the same time, in the society of those times, the aristocratic ideal, the constant communication of men during military training and the war, the male nudity in sports and the promotion of beauty and bravery in athletic contests, as well as the gatherings and the entertainment of men at the symposia, created a suitable substrate in which male homosexuality could develop. In this context, pedophile relationships were developed mainly during the archaic period, as recorded on vase paintings, where a mature man developed a special relationship with a teenager of the same social class. The mature man had the role of mentor for the juvenile, he would look after him and cover his living expenses and education cost. In this relationship, exhibiting predominantly the social dimension of an initiation process and introduction to adult life, the erotic homosexual intercourse could find a place to flourish. The above-mentioned relationship could not last forever, given that this would later transform into an emotional

The study of human Y chromosome variation through ancient DNA.

Science.gov (United States)

Kivisild, Toomas

2017-05-01

High throughput sequencing methods have completely transformed the study of human Y chromosome variation by offering a genome-scale view on genetic variation retrieved from ancient human remains in context of a growing number of high coverage whole Y chromosome sequence data from living populations from across the world. The ancient Y chromosome sequences are providing us the first exciting glimpses into the past variation of male-specific compartment of the genome and the opportunity to evaluate models based on previously made inferences from patterns of genetic variation in living populations. Analyses of the ancient Y chromosome sequences are challenging not only because of issues generally related to ancient DNA work, such as DNA damage-induced mutations and low content of endogenous DNA in most human remains, but also because of specific properties of the Y chromosome, such as its highly repetitive nature and high homology with the X chromosome. Shotgun sequencing of uniquely mapping regions of the Y chromosomes to sufficiently high coverage is still challenging and costly in poorly preserved samples. To increase the coverage of specific target SNPs capture-based methods have been developed and used in recent years to generate Y chromosome sequence data from hundreds of prehistoric skeletal remains. Besides the prospects of testing directly as how much genetic change in a given time period has accompanied changes in material culture the sequencing of ancient Y chromosomes allows us also to better understand the rate at which mutations accumulate and get fixed over time. This review considers genome-scale evidence on ancient Y chromosome diversity that has recently started to accumulate in geographic areas favourable to DNA preservation. More specifically the review focuses on examples of regional continuity and change of the Y chromosome haplogroups in North Eurasia and in the New World.

General and Local: Averaged k-Dependence Bayesian Classifiers

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Limin Wang

2015-06-01

Full Text Available The inference of a general Bayesian network has been shown to be an NP-hard problem, even for approximate solutions. Although k-dependence Bayesian (KDB classifier can construct at arbitrary points (values of k along the attribute dependence spectrum, it cannot identify the changes of interdependencies when attributes take different values. Local KDB, which learns in the framework of KDB, is proposed in this study to describe the local dependencies implicated in each test instance. Based on the analysis of functional dependencies, substitution-elimination resolution, a new type of semi-naive Bayesian operation, is proposed to substitute or eliminate generalization to achieve accurate estimation of conditional probability distribution while reducing computational complexity. The final classifier, averaged k-dependence Bayesian (AKDB classifiers, will average the output of KDB and local KDB. Experimental results on the repository of machine learning databases from the University of California Irvine (UCI showed that AKDB has significant advantages in zero-one loss and bias relative to naive Bayes (NB, tree augmented naive Bayes (TAN, Averaged one-dependence estimators (AODE, and KDB. Moreover, KDB and local KDB show mutually complementary characteristics with respect to variance.

A Bayesian Model of the Memory Colour Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Witzel, Christoph; Olkkonen, Maria; Gegenfurtner, Karl R

2018-01-01

According to the memory colour effect, the colour of a colour-diagnostic object is not perceived independently of the object itself. Instead, it has been shown through an achromatic adjustment method that colour-diagnostic objects still appear slightly in their typical colour, even when they are colourimetrically grey. Bayesian models provide a promising approach to capture the effect of prior knowledge on colour perception and to link these effects to more general effects of cue integration. Here, we model memory colour effects using prior knowledge about typical colours as priors for the grey adjustments in a Bayesian model. This simple model does not involve any fitting of free parameters. The Bayesian model roughly captured the magnitude of the measured memory colour effect for photographs of objects. To some extent, the model predicted observed differences in memory colour effects across objects. The model could not account for the differences in memory colour effects across different levels of realism in the object images. The Bayesian model provides a particularly simple account of memory colour effects, capturing some of the multiple sources of variation of these effects.

On the Development and Evolution of Astronomy in ancient Egypt

Science.gov (United States)

Maravelias, S. E.

In the present paper the development and evolution of astronomy in = Ancient Egypt are briefly examined. Emphasis is given to the = applications of astronomy on: (i) the orientation of temples and = pyramids, and the subsequent determination of the year; (ii) the = reorientation of temples --after the lapse of several centuries-- (due = to the fact that the priesthood was empirically aware of the precession = of equinoxes, and the subsequent use of this very fact in order to = estimate the archaeological age of temples, tombs and pyramids; (iii) = the heliacal rising of Sirius, which was used by ancient = priests-astronomers in order to fix the New Year's Day and determine the = seasons of the civil year, although the discre pancy of the Sothic cycle = in their calendrical system was not seriously taken into account. = Finally the conclusion put forward is that astronomy in Ancient Egypt = never reached the grounds of pure science (as in Ancient Greece), at = least before the Ptolemaic era, but always remained under the influence = of traditionalism and mythology pertaining more to the sphere of = religion and dogma.

Bayesian model ensembling using meta-trained recurrent neural networks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ambrogioni, L.; Berezutskaya, Y.; Gü ç lü , U.; Borne, E.W.P. van den; Gü ç lü tü rk, Y.; Gerven, M.A.J. van; Maris, E.G.G.

2017-01-01

In this paper we demonstrate that a recurrent neural network meta-trained on an ensemble of arbitrary classification tasks can be used as an approximation of the Bayes optimal classifier. This result is obtained by relying on the framework of e-free approximate Bayesian inference, where the Bayesian

Bermuda as an evolutionary life raft for an ancient lineage of endangered lizards.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Matthew C Brandley

Full Text Available Oceanic islands are well known for harboring diverse species assemblages and are frequently the basis of research on adaptive radiation and neoendemism. However, a commonly overlooked role of some islands is their function in preserving ancient lineages that have become extinct everywhere else (paleoendemism. The island archipelago of Bermuda is home to a single species of extant terrestrial vertebrate, the endemic skink Plestiodon (formerly Eumeces longirostris. The presence of this species is surprising because Bermuda is an isolated, relatively young oceanic island approximately 1000 km from the eastern United States. Here, we apply Bayesian phylogenetic analyses using a relaxed molecular clock to demonstrate that the island of Bermuda, although no older than two million years, is home to the only extant representative of one of the earliest mainland North American Plestiodon lineages, which diverged from its closest living relatives 11.5 to 19.8 million years ago. This implies that, within a short geological time frame, mainland North American ancestors of P. longirostris colonized the recently emergent Bermuda and the entire lineage subsequently vanished from the mainland. Thus, our analyses reveal that Bermuda is an example of a "life raft" preserving millions of years of unique evolutionary history, now at the brink of extinction. Threats such as habitat destruction, littering, and non-native species have severely reduced the population size of this highly endangered lizard.

Medicine and psychiatry in Western culture: among Ancient Greek myths and modern prejudices.

Science.gov (United States)

Fornaro, Michele; Clementi, Nicoletta; Fornaro, Pantaleo

2009-01-01

While many ancient cultures contributed to our current knowledge about medicine and psychiatry origins, Ancient Greeks were among the best observers of feelings and moods patients could express toward medicine and toward what today referred as "psychopathology". Myths and religious references were used to explain what elsewhere impossible to understand or easily communicated. Most of ancient myths focus on ambiguous feelings patients could have towards drugs, especially psychotropic ones. Interestingly, such prejudices are common yet today. Recalling ancient findings and descriptions made using myths, should represent a valuable knowledge for modern physicians, especially for psychiatrists, and their patients, with the aim of better understanding each other and therefore achieving a better clinical outcome. The paper explores many human aspects and feelings toward doctors and their cures, referring to ancient myths, focusing on the perception of mental illness.

ARCHAEOLOGICAL AND GEOLOGICAL CONCEPTS ON THE TOPIC OF ANCIENT MINING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Prentiss de JESUS

2015-12-01

Full Text Available Geological and archaeological research on ancient mining and metallurgy are actually targeting the same goals: understanding the nature and value of a mining operation. Geologists are intent on locating and qualifying ores and minerals for future use, whereas archaeologists strive to link ores to relevant historic and prehistoric metal artifacts and activities. This article discusses research into ancient Anatolian metallurgy by underscoring the overlap between geological and archeological practices. The work of archaeologists and geologists can be mutually beneficial through a close collaboration on the collection and analysis of field data. Their accumulated and combined knowledge would accelerate the progress towards placing ancient mining activities in a chronological and meaningful context.

Cathair Crobh Dearg: From Ancient Beliefs to the Rounds 2017

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Frédéric Armao

2017-10-01

Full Text Available This paper will study the case of the stone enclosure of Cathair Crobh Dearg, Co. Kerry (also referred to as the City and Dá Chích Anann (or the Paps of Anu, the twin mountains that can be seen from the enclosure. The site is mentioned in ancient mythological texts as well as more modern accounts in connection with the Irish festival of Bealtaine, in early May. The author relied on archaeological evidence, an analysis of ancient documents, a number of manuscripts from the Irish National Folklore Collection, as well as personal visits to the site in order to try and understand the nature, and possibly origin, of both contemporary rituals and ancient beliefs.

A Bayesian alternative for multi-objective ecohydrological model specification

Science.gov (United States)

Tang, Yating; Marshall, Lucy; Sharma, Ashish; Ajami, Hoori

2018-01-01

Recent studies have identified the importance of vegetation processes in terrestrial hydrologic systems. Process-based ecohydrological models combine hydrological, physical, biochemical and ecological processes of the catchments, and as such are generally more complex and parametric than conceptual hydrological models. Thus, appropriate calibration objectives and model uncertainty analysis are essential for ecohydrological modeling. In recent years, Bayesian inference has become one of the most popular tools for quantifying the uncertainties in hydrological modeling with the development of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) techniques. The Bayesian approach offers an appealing alternative to traditional multi-objective hydrologic model calibrations by defining proper prior distributions that can be considered analogous to the ad-hoc weighting often prescribed in multi-objective calibration. Our study aims to develop appropriate prior distributions and likelihood functions that minimize the model uncertainties and bias within a Bayesian ecohydrological modeling framework based on a traditional Pareto-based model calibration technique. In our study, a Pareto-based multi-objective optimization and a formal Bayesian framework are implemented in a conceptual ecohydrological model that combines a hydrological model (HYMOD) and a modified Bucket Grassland Model (BGM). Simulations focused on one objective (streamflow/LAI) and multiple objectives (streamflow and LAI) with different emphasis defined via the prior distribution of the model error parameters. Results show more reliable outputs for both predicted streamflow and LAI using Bayesian multi-objective calibration with specified prior distributions for error parameters based on results from the Pareto front in the ecohydrological modeling. The methodology implemented here provides insight into the usefulness of multiobjective Bayesian calibration for ecohydrologic systems and the importance of appropriate prior

Bayesian molecular dating: opening up the black box.

Science.gov (United States)

Bromham, Lindell; Duchêne, Sebastián; Hua, Xia; Ritchie, Andrew M; Duchêne, David A; Ho, Simon Y W

2018-05-01

Molecular dating analyses allow evolutionary timescales to be estimated from genetic data, offering an unprecedented capacity for investigating the evolutionary past of all species. These methods require us to make assumptions about the relationship between genetic change and evolutionary time, often referred to as a 'molecular clock'. Although initially regarded with scepticism, molecular dating has now been adopted in many areas of biology. This broad uptake has been due partly to the development of Bayesian methods that allow complex aspects of molecular evolution, such as variation in rates of change across lineages, to be taken into account. But in order to do this, Bayesian dating methods rely on a range of assumptions about the evolutionary process, which vary in their degree of biological realism and empirical support. These assumptions can have substantial impacts on the estimates produced by molecular dating analyses. The aim of this review is to open the 'black box' of Bayesian molecular dating and have a look at the machinery inside. We explain the components of these dating methods, the important decisions that researchers must make in their analyses, and the factors that need to be considered when interpreting results. We illustrate the effects that the choices of different models and priors can have on the outcome of the analysis, and suggest ways to explore these impacts. We describe some major research directions that may improve the reliability of Bayesian dating. The goal of our review is to help researchers to make informed choices when using Bayesian phylogenetic methods to estimate evolutionary rates and timescales. © 2017 Cambridge Philosophical Society.

High-resolution analysis of cytosine methylation in ancient DNA.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bastien Llamas

Full Text Available Epigenetic changes to gene expression can result in heritable phenotypic characteristics that are not encoded in the DNA itself, but rather by biochemical modifications to the DNA or associated chromatin proteins. Interposed between genes and environment, these epigenetic modifications can be influenced by environmental factors to affect phenotype for multiple generations. This raises the possibility that epigenetic states provide a substrate for natural selection, with the potential to participate in the rapid adaptation of species to changes in environment. Any direct test of this hypothesis would require the ability to measure epigenetic states over evolutionary timescales. Here we describe the first single-base resolution of cytosine methylation patterns in an ancient mammalian genome, by bisulphite allelic sequencing of loci from late Pleistocene Bison priscus remains. Retrotransposons and the differentially methylated regions of imprinted loci displayed methylation patterns identical to those derived from fresh bovine tissue, indicating that methylation patterns are preserved in the ancient DNA. Our findings establish the biochemical stability of methylated cytosines over extensive time frames, and provide the first direct evidence that cytosine methylation patterns are retained in DNA from ancient specimens. The ability to resolve cytosine methylation in ancient DNA provides a powerful means to study the role of epigenetics in evolution.

On the acoustics of ancient Greek and Roman theaters.

Science.gov (United States)

Farnetani, Andrea; Prodi, Nicola; Pompoli, Roberto

2008-09-01

The interplay of architecture and acoustics is remarkable in ancient Greek and Roman theaters. Frequently they are nowadays lively performance spaces and the knowledge of the sound field inside them is still an issue of relevant importance. Even if the transition from Greek to Roman theaters can be described with a great architectural detail, a comprehensive and objective approach to the two types of spaces from the acoustical point of view is available at present only as a computer model study [P. Chourmouziadou and J. Kang, "Acoustic evolution of ancient Greek and Roman theaters," Appl. Acoust. 69, re (2007)]. This work addresses the same topic from the experimental point of view, and its aim is to provide a basis to the acoustical evolution from Greek to Roman theater design. First, by means of in situ and scale model measurements, the most important features of the sound field in ancient theaters are clarified and discussed. Then it has been possible to match quantitatively the role of some remarkable architectural design variables with acoustics, and it is seen how this criterion can be used effectively to define different groups of ancient theaters. Finally some more specific wave phenomena are addressed and discussed.

Application of PIXE to study ancient Iranian silver coins

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Oliaiy, P.; Shokouhi, F.; Lamehi-Rachti, M.; Rahighi, J. [Van de Graaff Laboratory, AEOI, Tehran (Iran); Andami, P.; Dilmaghani, J.; Etezadi, M. [Tamashagah-e-Pool, General Office of Museums, MDFIR, Tehran (Iran)

1999-07-01

Ancient Iranian silver coins minted in various parts of the ancient Iran from Transoxiana to Mesopotamia over a time span of 460 years (247BC-208AD) during Parthians dynasty were analysed by PIXE with a 2.2 MeV proton beam. Forty seven silver coins owned by Tamashagah-e-Pool (museum of money) in Tehran were examined in this study. The possible correlation between the composition of coins and the minting time or the minting location of coins has been the prime objective of the present study. Elemental analysis of ancient coins could also reveal the direct relation with the political and economical situation and also with the metallurgy of the minting time. Results on the contents of principal component elements (Fe, Ni, Cu, As, Br, Ag, Sn, Sb, Ba, Au and Pb) are presented and discussed. (author)

Bayesian logistic regression analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Van Erp, H.R.N.; Van Gelder, P.H.A.J.M.

2012-01-01

In this paper we present a Bayesian logistic regression analysis. It is found that if one wishes to derive the posterior distribution of the probability of some event, then, together with the traditional Bayes Theorem and the integrating out of nuissance parameters, the Jacobian transformation is an

Bayesian Independent Component Analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Winther, Ole; Petersen, Kaare Brandt

2007-01-01

In this paper we present an empirical Bayesian framework for independent component analysis. The framework provides estimates of the sources, the mixing matrix and the noise parameters, and is flexible with respect to choice of source prior and the number of sources and sensors. Inside the engine...

Particle identification in ALICE: a Bayesian approach

CERN Document Server

Adam, Jaroslav; Aggarwal, Madan Mohan; Aglieri Rinella, Gianluca; Agnello, Michelangelo; Agrawal, Neelima; Ahammed, Zubayer; Ahmad, Shakeel; Ahn, Sang Un; Aiola, Salvatore; Akindinov, Alexander; Alam, Sk Noor; Silva De Albuquerque, Danilo; Aleksandrov, Dmitry; Alessandro, Bruno; Alexandre, Didier; Alfaro Molina, Jose Ruben; Alici, Andrea; Alkin, Anton; Millan Almaraz, Jesus Roberto; Alme, Johan; Alt, Torsten; Altinpinar, Sedat; Altsybeev, Igor; Alves Garcia Prado, Caio; Andrei, Cristian; Andronic, Anton; Anguelov, Venelin; Anticic, Tome; Antinori, Federico; Antonioli, Pietro; Aphecetche, Laurent Bernard; Appelshaeuser, Harald; Arcelli, Silvia; Arnaldi, Roberta; Arnold, Oliver Werner; Arsene, Ionut Cristian; Arslandok, Mesut; Audurier, Benjamin; Augustinus, Andre; Averbeck, Ralf Peter; Azmi, Mohd Danish; Badala, Angela; Baek, Yong Wook; Bagnasco, Stefano; Bailhache, Raphaelle Marie; Bala, Renu; Balasubramanian, Supraja; Baldisseri, Alberto; Baral, Rama Chandra; Barbano, Anastasia Maria; Barbera, Roberto; Barile, Francesco; Barnafoldi, Gergely Gabor; Barnby, Lee Stuart; Ramillien Barret, Valerie; Bartalini, Paolo; Barth, Klaus; Bartke, Jerzy Gustaw; Bartsch, Esther; Basile, Maurizio; Bastid, Nicole; Basu, Sumit; Bathen, Bastian; Batigne, Guillaume; Batista Camejo, Arianna; Batyunya, Boris; Batzing, Paul Christoph; Bearden, Ian Gardner; Beck, Hans; Bedda, Cristina; Behera, Nirbhay Kumar; Belikov, Iouri; Bellini, Francesca; Bello Martinez, Hector; Bellwied, Rene; Belmont Iii, Ronald John; Belmont Moreno, Ernesto; Belyaev, Vladimir; Benacek, Pavel; Bencedi, Gyula; Beole, Stefania; Berceanu, Ionela; Bercuci, Alexandru; Berdnikov, Yaroslav; Berenyi, Daniel; Bertens, Redmer Alexander; Berzano, Dario; Betev, Latchezar; Bhasin, Anju; Bhat, Inayat Rasool; Bhati, Ashok Kumar; Bhattacharjee, Buddhadeb; Bhom, Jihyun; Bianchi, Livio; Bianchi, Nicola; Bianchin, Chiara; Bielcik, Jaroslav; Bielcikova, Jana; Bilandzic, Ante; Biro, Gabor; Biswas, Rathijit; Biswas, Saikat; Bjelogrlic, Sandro; Blair, Justin Thomas; Blau, Dmitry; Blume, Christoph; Bock, Friederike; Bogdanov, Alexey; Boggild, Hans; Boldizsar, Laszlo; Bombara, Marek; Book, Julian Heinz; Borel, Herve; Borissov, Alexander; Borri, Marcello; Bossu, Francesco; Botta, Elena; Bourjau, Christian; Braun-Munzinger, Peter; Bregant, Marco; Breitner, Timo Gunther; Broker, Theo Alexander; Browning, Tyler Allen; Broz, Michal; Brucken, Erik Jens; Bruna, Elena; Bruno, Giuseppe Eugenio; Budnikov, Dmitry; Buesching, Henner; Bufalino, Stefania; Buncic, Predrag; Busch, Oliver; Buthelezi, Edith Zinhle; Bashir Butt, Jamila; Buxton, Jesse Thomas; Cabala, Jan; Caffarri, Davide; Cai, Xu; Caines, Helen Louise; Calero Diaz, Liliet; Caliva, Alberto; Calvo Villar, Ernesto; Camerini, Paolo; Carena, Francesco; Carena, Wisla; Carnesecchi, Francesca; Castillo Castellanos, Javier Ernesto; Castro, Andrew John; Casula, Ester Anna Rita; Ceballos Sanchez, Cesar; Cepila, Jan; Cerello, Piergiorgio; Cerkala, Jakub; Chang, Beomsu; Chapeland, Sylvain; Chartier, Marielle; Charvet, Jean-Luc Fernand; Chattopadhyay, Subhasis; Chattopadhyay, Sukalyan; Chauvin, Alex; Chelnokov, Volodymyr; Cherney, Michael Gerard; Cheshkov, Cvetan Valeriev; Cheynis, Brigitte; Chibante Barroso, Vasco Miguel; Dobrigkeit Chinellato, David; Cho, Soyeon; Chochula, Peter; Choi, Kyungeon; Chojnacki, Marek; Choudhury, Subikash; Christakoglou, Panagiotis; Christensen, Christian Holm; Christiansen, Peter; Chujo, Tatsuya; Chung, Suh-Urk; Cicalo, Corrado; Cifarelli, Luisa; Cindolo, Federico; Cleymans, Jean Willy Andre; Colamaria, Fabio Filippo; Colella, Domenico; Collu, Alberto; Colocci, Manuel; Conesa Balbastre, Gustavo; Conesa Del Valle, Zaida; Connors, Megan Elizabeth; Contreras Nuno, Jesus Guillermo; Cormier, Thomas Michael; Corrales Morales, Yasser; Cortes Maldonado, Ismael; Cortese, Pietro; Cosentino, Mauro Rogerio; Costa, Filippo; Crochet, Philippe; Cruz Albino, Rigoberto; Cuautle Flores, Eleazar; Cunqueiro Mendez, Leticia; Dahms, Torsten; Dainese, Andrea; Danisch, Meike Charlotte; Danu, Andrea; Das, Debasish; Das, Indranil; Das, Supriya; Dash, Ajay Kumar; Dash, Sadhana; De, Sudipan; De Caro, Annalisa; De Cataldo, Giacinto; De Conti, Camila; De Cuveland, Jan; De Falco, Alessandro; De Gruttola, Daniele; De Marco, Nora; De Pasquale, Salvatore; Deisting, Alexander; Deloff, Andrzej; Denes, Ervin Sandor; Deplano, Caterina; Dhankher, Preeti; Di Bari, Domenico; Di Mauro, Antonio; Di Nezza, Pasquale; Diaz Corchero, Miguel Angel; Dietel, Thomas; Dillenseger, Pascal; Divia, Roberto; Djuvsland, Oeystein; Dobrin, Alexandru Florin; Domenicis Gimenez, Diogenes; Donigus, Benjamin; Dordic, Olja; Drozhzhova, Tatiana; Dubey, Anand Kumar; Dubla, Andrea; Ducroux, Laurent; Dupieux, Pascal; Ehlers Iii, Raymond James; Elia, Domenico; Endress, Eric; Engel, Heiko; Epple, Eliane; Erazmus, Barbara Ewa; Erdemir, Irem; Erhardt, Filip; Espagnon, Bruno; Estienne, Magali Danielle; Esumi, Shinichi; Eum, Jongsik; Evans, David; Evdokimov, Sergey; Eyyubova, Gyulnara; Fabbietti, Laura; Fabris, Daniela; Faivre, Julien; Fantoni, Alessandra; Fasel, Markus; Feldkamp, Linus; Feliciello, Alessandro; Feofilov, Grigorii; Ferencei, Jozef; Fernandez Tellez, Arturo; Gonzalez Ferreiro, Elena; Ferretti, Alessandro; Festanti, Andrea; Feuillard, Victor Jose Gaston; Figiel, Jan; Araujo Silva Figueredo, Marcel; Filchagin, Sergey; Finogeev, Dmitry; Fionda, Fiorella; Fiore, Enrichetta Maria; Fleck, Martin Gabriel; Floris, Michele; Foertsch, Siegfried Valentin; Foka, Panagiota; Fokin, Sergey; Fragiacomo, Enrico; Francescon, Andrea; Frankenfeld, Ulrich Michael; Fronze, Gabriele Gaetano; Fuchs, Ulrich; Furget, Christophe; Furs, Artur; Fusco Girard, Mario; Gaardhoeje, Jens Joergen; Gagliardi, Martino; Gago Medina, Alberto Martin; Gallio, Mauro; Gangadharan, Dhevan Raja; Ganoti, Paraskevi; Gao, Chaosong; Garabatos Cuadrado, Jose; Garcia-Solis, Edmundo Javier; Gargiulo, Corrado; Gasik, Piotr Jan; Gauger, Erin Frances; Germain, Marie; Gheata, Andrei George; Gheata, Mihaela; Ghosh, Premomoy; Ghosh, Sanjay Kumar; Gianotti, Paola; Giubellino, Paolo; Giubilato, Piero; Gladysz-Dziadus, Ewa; Glassel, Peter; Gomez Coral, Diego Mauricio; Gomez Ramirez, Andres; Sanchez Gonzalez, Andres; Gonzalez, Victor; Gonzalez Zamora, Pedro; Gorbunov, Sergey; Gorlich, Lidia Maria; Gotovac, Sven; Grabski, Varlen; Grachov, Oleg Anatolievich; Graczykowski, Lukasz Kamil; Graham, Katie Leanne; Grelli, Alessandro; Grigoras, Alina Gabriela; Grigoras, Costin; Grigoryev, Vladislav; Grigoryan, Ara; Grigoryan, Smbat; Grynyov, Borys; Grion, Nevio; Gronefeld, Julius Maximilian; Grosse-Oetringhaus, Jan Fiete; Grosso, Raffaele; Guber, Fedor; Guernane, Rachid; Guerzoni, Barbara; Gulbrandsen, Kristjan Herlache; Gunji, Taku; Gupta, Anik; Gupta, Ramni; Haake, Rudiger; Haaland, Oystein Senneset; Hadjidakis, Cynthia Marie; Haiduc, Maria; Hamagaki, Hideki; Hamar, Gergoe; Hamon, Julien Charles; Harris, John William; Harton, Austin Vincent; Hatzifotiadou, Despina; Hayashi, Shinichi; Heckel, Stefan Thomas; Hellbar, Ernst; Helstrup, Haavard; Herghelegiu, Andrei Ionut; Herrera Corral, Gerardo Antonio; Hess, Benjamin Andreas; Hetland, Kristin Fanebust; Hillemanns, Hartmut; Hippolyte, Boris; Horak, David; Hosokawa, Ritsuya; Hristov, Peter Zahariev; Humanic, Thomas; Hussain, Nur; Hussain, Tahir; Hutter, Dirk; Hwang, Dae Sung; Ilkaev, Radiy; Inaba, Motoi; Incani, Elisa; Ippolitov, Mikhail; Irfan, Muhammad; Ivanov, Marian; Ivanov, Vladimir; Izucheev, Vladimir; Jacazio, Nicolo; Jacobs, Peter Martin; Jadhav, Manoj Bhanudas; Jadlovska, Slavka; Jadlovsky, Jan; Jahnke, Cristiane; Jakubowska, Monika Joanna; Jang, Haeng Jin; Janik, Malgorzata Anna; Pahula Hewage, Sandun; Jena, Chitrasen; Jena, Satyajit; Jimenez Bustamante, Raul Tonatiuh; Jones, Peter Graham; Jusko, Anton; Kalinak, Peter; Kalweit, Alexander Philipp; Kamin, Jason Adrian; Kang, Ju Hwan; Kaplin, Vladimir; Kar, Somnath; Karasu Uysal, Ayben; Karavichev, Oleg; Karavicheva, Tatiana; Karayan, Lilit; Karpechev, Evgeny; Kebschull, Udo Wolfgang; Keidel, Ralf; Keijdener, Darius Laurens; Keil, Markus; Khan, Mohammed Mohisin; Khan, Palash; Khan, Shuaib Ahmad; Khanzadeev, Alexei; Kharlov, Yury; Kileng, Bjarte; Kim, Do Won; Kim, Dong Jo; Kim, Daehyeok; Kim, Hyeonjoong; Kim, Jinsook; Kim, Minwoo; Kim, Se Yong; Kim, Taesoo; Kirsch, Stefan; Kisel, Ivan; Kiselev, Sergey; Kisiel, Adam Ryszard; Kiss, Gabor; Klay, Jennifer Lynn; Klein, Carsten; Klein, Jochen; Klein-Boesing, Christian; Klewin, Sebastian; Kluge, Alexander; Knichel, Michael Linus; Knospe, Anders Garritt; Kobdaj, Chinorat; Kofarago, Monika; Kollegger, Thorsten; Kolozhvari, Anatoly; Kondratev, Valerii; Kondratyeva, Natalia; Kondratyuk, Evgeny; Konevskikh, Artem; Kopcik, Michal; Kostarakis, Panagiotis; Kour, Mandeep; Kouzinopoulos, Charalampos; Kovalenko, Oleksandr; Kovalenko, Vladimir; Kowalski, Marek; Koyithatta Meethaleveedu, Greeshma; Kralik, Ivan; Kravcakova, Adela; Krivda, Marian; Krizek, Filip; Kryshen, Evgeny; Krzewicki, Mikolaj; Kubera, Andrew Michael; Kucera, Vit; Kuhn, Christian Claude; Kuijer, Paulus Gerardus; Kumar, Ajay; Kumar, Jitendra; Kumar, Lokesh; Kumar, Shyam; Kurashvili, Podist; Kurepin, Alexander; Kurepin, Alexey; Kuryakin, Alexey; Kweon, Min Jung; Kwon, Youngil; La Pointe, Sarah Louise; La Rocca, Paola; Ladron De Guevara, Pedro; Lagana Fernandes, Caio; Lakomov, Igor; Langoy, Rune; Lara Martinez, Camilo Ernesto; Lardeux, Antoine Xavier; Lattuca, Alessandra; Laudi, Elisa; Lea, Ramona; Leardini, Lucia; Lee, Graham Richard; Lee, Seongjoo; Lehas, Fatiha; Lemmon, Roy Crawford; Lenti, Vito; Leogrande, Emilia; Leon Monzon, Ildefonso; Leon Vargas, Hermes; Leoncino, Marco; Levai, Peter; Li, Shuang; Li, Xiaomei; Lien, Jorgen Andre; Lietava, Roman; Lindal, Svein; Lindenstruth, Volker; Lippmann, Christian; Lisa, Michael Annan; Ljunggren, Hans Martin; Lodato, Davide Francesco; Lonne, Per-Ivar; Loginov, Vitaly; Loizides, Constantinos; Lopez, Xavier Bernard; Lopez Torres, Ernesto; Lowe, Andrew John; Luettig, Philipp Johannes; Lunardon, Marcello; Luparello, Grazia; Lutz, Tyler Harrison; Maevskaya, Alla; Mager, Magnus; Mahajan, Sanjay; Mahmood, Sohail Musa; Maire, Antonin; Majka, Richard Daniel; Malaev, Mikhail; Maldonado Cervantes, Ivonne Alicia; Malinina, Liudmila; Mal'Kevich, Dmitry; Malzacher, Peter; Mamonov, Alexander; Manko, Vladislav; Manso, Franck; Manzari, Vito; Marchisone, Massimiliano; Mares, Jiri; Margagliotti, Giacomo Vito; Margotti, Anselmo; Margutti, Jacopo; Marin, Ana Maria; Markert, Christina; Marquard, Marco; Martin, Nicole Alice; Martin Blanco, Javier; Martinengo, Paolo; Martinez Hernandez, Mario Ivan; Martinez-Garcia, Gines; Martinez Pedreira, Miguel; Mas, Alexis Jean-Michel; Masciocchi, Silvia; Masera, Massimo; Masoni, Alberto; Mastroserio, Annalisa; Matyja, Adam Tomasz; Mayer, Christoph; Mazer, Joel Anthony; Mazzoni, Alessandra Maria; Mcdonald, Daniel; Meddi, Franco; Melikyan, Yuri; Menchaca-Rocha, Arturo Alejandro; Meninno, Elisa; Mercado-Perez, Jorge; Meres, Michal; Miake, Yasuo; Mieskolainen, Matti Mikael; Mikhaylov, Konstantin; Milano, Leonardo; Milosevic, Jovan; Mischke, Andre; Mishra, Aditya Nath; Miskowiec, Dariusz Czeslaw; Mitra, Jubin; Mitu, Ciprian Mihai; Mohammadi, Naghmeh; Mohanty, Bedangadas; Molnar, Levente; Montano Zetina, Luis Manuel; Montes Prado, Esther; Moreira De Godoy, Denise Aparecida; Perez Moreno, Luis Alberto; Moretto, Sandra; Morreale, Astrid; Morsch, Andreas; Muccifora, Valeria; Mudnic, Eugen; Muhlheim, Daniel Michael; Muhuri, Sanjib; Mukherjee, Maitreyee; Mulligan, James Declan; Gameiro Munhoz, Marcelo; Munzer, Robert Helmut; Murakami, Hikari; Murray, Sean; Musa, Luciano; Musinsky, Jan; Naik, Bharati; Nair, Rahul; Nandi, Basanta Kumar; Nania, Rosario; Nappi, Eugenio; Naru, Muhammad Umair; Ferreira Natal Da Luz, Pedro Hugo; Nattrass, Christine; Rosado Navarro, Sebastian; Nayak, Kishora; Nayak, Ranjit; Nayak, Tapan Kumar; Nazarenko, Sergey; Nedosekin, Alexander; Nellen, Lukas; Ng, Fabian; Nicassio, Maria; Niculescu, Mihai; Niedziela, Jeremi; Nielsen, Borge Svane; Nikolaev, Sergey; Nikulin, Sergey; Nikulin, Vladimir; Noferini, Francesco; Nomokonov, Petr; Nooren, Gerardus; Cabanillas Noris, Juan Carlos; Norman, Jaime; Nyanin, Alexander; Nystrand, Joakim Ingemar; Oeschler, Helmut Oskar; Oh, Saehanseul; Oh, Sun Kun; Ohlson, Alice Elisabeth; Okatan, Ali; Okubo, Tsubasa; Olah, Laszlo; Oleniacz, Janusz; Oliveira Da Silva, Antonio Carlos; Oliver, Michael Henry; Onderwaater, Jacobus; Oppedisano, Chiara; Orava, Risto; Oravec, Matej; Ortiz Velasquez, Antonio; Oskarsson, Anders Nils Erik; Otwinowski, Jacek Tomasz; Oyama, Ken; Ozdemir, Mahmut; Pachmayer, Yvonne Chiara; Pagano, Davide; Pagano, Paola; Paic, Guy; Pal, Susanta Kumar; Pan, Jinjin; Pandey, Ashutosh Kumar; Papikyan, Vardanush; Pappalardo, Giuseppe; Pareek, Pooja; Park, Woojin; Parmar, Sonia; Passfeld, Annika; Paticchio, Vincenzo; Patra, Rajendra Nath; Paul, Biswarup; Pei, Hua; Peitzmann, Thomas; Pereira Da Costa, Hugo Denis Antonio; Peresunko, Dmitry Yurevich; Perez Lara, Carlos Eugenio; Perez Lezama, Edgar; Peskov, Vladimir; Pestov, Yury; Petracek, Vojtech; Petrov, Viacheslav; Petrovici, Mihai; Petta, Catia; Piano, Stefano; Pikna, Miroslav; Pillot, Philippe; Ozelin De Lima Pimentel, Lais; Pinazza, Ombretta; Pinsky, Lawrence; Piyarathna, Danthasinghe; Ploskon, Mateusz Andrzej; Planinic, Mirko; Pluta, Jan Marian; Pochybova, Sona; Podesta Lerma, Pedro Luis Manuel; Poghosyan, Martin; Polishchuk, Boris; Poljak, Nikola; Poonsawat, Wanchaloem; Pop, Amalia; Porteboeuf, Sarah Julie; Porter, R Jefferson; Pospisil, Jan; Prasad, Sidharth Kumar; Preghenella, Roberto; Prino, Francesco; Pruneau, Claude Andre; Pshenichnov, Igor; Puccio, Maximiliano; Puddu, Giovanna; Pujahari, Prabhat Ranjan; Punin, Valery; Putschke, Jorn Henning; Qvigstad, Henrik; Rachevski, Alexandre; Raha, Sibaji; Rajput, Sonia; Rak, Jan; Rakotozafindrabe, Andry Malala; Ramello, Luciano; Rami, Fouad; Raniwala, Rashmi; Raniwala, Sudhir; Rasanen, Sami Sakari; Rascanu, Bogdan Theodor; Rathee, Deepika; Read, Kenneth Francis; Redlich, Krzysztof; Reed, Rosi Jan; Rehman, Attiq Ur; Reichelt, Patrick Simon; Reidt, Felix; Ren, Xiaowen; Renfordt, Rainer Arno Ernst; Reolon, Anna Rita; Reshetin, Andrey; Reygers, Klaus Johannes; Riabov, Viktor; Ricci, Renato Angelo; Richert, Tuva Ora Herenui; Richter, Matthias Rudolph; Riedler, Petra; Riegler, Werner; Riggi, Francesco; Ristea, Catalin-Lucian; Rocco, Elena; Rodriguez Cahuantzi, Mario; Rodriguez Manso, Alis; Roeed, Ketil; Rogochaya, Elena; Rohr, David Michael; Roehrich, Dieter; Ronchetti, Federico; Ronflette, Lucile; Rosnet, Philippe; Rossi, Andrea; Roukoutakis, Filimon; Roy, Ankhi; Roy, Christelle Sophie; Roy, Pradip Kumar; Rubio Montero, Antonio Juan; Rui, Rinaldo; Russo, Riccardo; Ryabinkin, Evgeny; Ryabov, Yury; Rybicki, Andrzej; Saarinen, Sampo; Sadhu, Samrangy; Sadovskiy, Sergey; Safarik, Karel; Sahlmuller, Baldo; Sahoo, Pragati; Sahoo, Raghunath; Sahoo, Sarita; Sahu, Pradip Kumar; Saini, Jogender; Sakai, Shingo; Saleh, Mohammad Ahmad; Salzwedel, Jai Samuel Nielsen; Sambyal, Sanjeev Singh; Samsonov, Vladimir; Sandor, Ladislav; Sandoval, Andres; Sano, Masato; Sarkar, Debojit; Sarkar, Nachiketa; Sarma, Pranjal; Scapparone, Eugenio; Scarlassara, Fernando; Schiaua, Claudiu Cornel; Schicker, Rainer Martin; Schmidt, Christian Joachim; Schmidt, Hans Rudolf; Schuchmann, Simone; Schukraft, Jurgen; Schulc, Martin; Schutz, Yves Roland; Schwarz, Kilian Eberhard; Schweda, Kai Oliver; Scioli, Gilda; Scomparin, Enrico; Scott, Rebecca Michelle; Sefcik, Michal; Seger, Janet Elizabeth; Sekiguchi, Yuko; Sekihata, Daiki; Selyuzhenkov, Ilya; Senosi, Kgotlaesele; Senyukov, Serhiy; Serradilla Rodriguez, Eulogio; Sevcenco, Adrian; Shabanov, Arseniy; Shabetai, Alexandre; Shadura, Oksana; Shahoyan, Ruben; Shahzad, Muhammed Ikram; Shangaraev, Artem; Sharma, Ankita; Sharma, Mona; Sharma, Monika; Sharma, Natasha; Sheikh, Ashik Ikbal; Shigaki, Kenta; Shou, Qiye; Shtejer Diaz, Katherin; Sibiryak, Yury; Siddhanta, Sabyasachi; Sielewicz, Krzysztof Marek; Siemiarczuk, Teodor; Silvermyr, David Olle Rickard; Silvestre, Catherine Micaela; Simatovic, Goran; Simonetti, Giuseppe; Singaraju, Rama Narayana; Singh, Ranbir; Singha, Subhash; Singhal, Vikas; Sinha, Bikash; Sarkar - Sinha, Tinku; Sitar, Branislav; Sitta, Mario; Skaali, Bernhard; Slupecki, Maciej; Smirnov, Nikolai; Snellings, Raimond; Snellman, Tomas Wilhelm; Song, Jihye; Song, Myunggeun; Song, Zixuan; Soramel, Francesca; Sorensen, Soren Pontoppidan; Derradi De Souza, Rafael; Sozzi, Federica; Spacek, Michal; Spiriti, Eleuterio; Sputowska, Iwona Anna; Spyropoulou-Stassinaki, Martha; Stachel, Johanna; Stan, Ionel; Stankus, Paul; Stenlund, Evert Anders; Steyn, Gideon Francois; Stiller, Johannes Hendrik; Stocco, Diego; Strmen, Peter; Alarcon Do Passo Suaide, Alexandre; Sugitate, Toru; Suire, Christophe Pierre; Suleymanov, Mais Kazim Oglu; Suljic, Miljenko; Sultanov, Rishat; Sumbera, Michal; Sumowidagdo, Suharyo; Szabo, Alexander; Szanto De Toledo, Alejandro; Szarka, Imrich; Szczepankiewicz, Adam; Szymanski, Maciej Pawel; Tabassam, Uzma; Takahashi, Jun; Tambave, Ganesh Jagannath; Tanaka, Naoto; Tarhini, Mohamad; Tariq, Mohammad; Tarzila, Madalina-Gabriela; Tauro, Arturo; Tejeda Munoz, Guillermo; Telesca, Adriana; Terasaki, Kohei; Terrevoli, Cristina; Teyssier, Boris; Thaeder, Jochen Mathias; Thakur, Dhananjaya; Thomas, Deepa; Tieulent, Raphael Noel; Timmins, Anthony Robert; Toia, Alberica; Trogolo, Stefano; Trombetta, Giuseppe; Trubnikov, Victor; Trzaska, Wladyslaw Henryk; Tsuji, Tomoya; Tumkin, Alexandr; Turrisi, Rosario; Tveter, Trine Spedstad; Ullaland, Kjetil; Uras, Antonio; Usai, Gianluca; Utrobicic, Antonija; Vala, Martin; Valencia Palomo, Lizardo; Vallero, Sara; Van Der Maarel, Jasper; Van Hoorne, Jacobus Willem; Van Leeuwen, Marco; Vanat, Tomas; Vande Vyvre, Pierre; Varga, Dezso; Diozcora Vargas Trevino, Aurora; Vargyas, Marton; Varma, Raghava; Vasileiou, Maria; Vasiliev, Andrey; Vauthier, Astrid; Vechernin, Vladimir; Veen, Annelies Marianne; Veldhoen, Misha; Velure, Arild; Vercellin, Ermanno; Vergara Limon, Sergio; Vernet, Renaud; Verweij, Marta; Vickovic, Linda; Viesti, Giuseppe; Viinikainen, Jussi Samuli; Vilakazi, Zabulon; Villalobos Baillie, Orlando; Villatoro Tello, Abraham; Vinogradov, Alexander; Vinogradov, Leonid; Vinogradov, Yury; Virgili, Tiziano; Vislavicius, Vytautas; Viyogi, Yogendra; Vodopyanov, Alexander; Volkl, Martin Andreas; Voloshin, Kirill; Voloshin, Sergey; Volpe, Giacomo; Von Haller, Barthelemy; Vorobyev, Ivan; Vranic, Danilo; Vrlakova, Janka; Vulpescu, Bogdan; Wagner, Boris; Wagner, Jan; Wang, Hongkai; Wang, Mengliang; Watanabe, Daisuke; Watanabe, Yosuke; Weber, Michael; Weber, Steffen Georg; Weiser, Dennis Franz; Wessels, Johannes Peter; Westerhoff, Uwe; Whitehead, Andile Mothegi; Wiechula, Jens; Wikne, Jon; Wilk, Grzegorz Andrzej; Wilkinson, Jeremy John; Williams, Crispin; Windelband, Bernd Stefan; Winn, Michael Andreas; Yang, Hongyan; Yang, Ping; Yano, Satoshi; Yasin, Zafar; Yin, Zhongbao; Yokoyama, Hiroki; Yoo, In-Kwon; Yoon, Jin Hee; Yurchenko, Volodymyr; Yushmanov, Igor; Zaborowska, Anna; Zaccolo, Valentina; Zaman, Ali; Zampolli, Chiara; Correia Zanoli, Henrique Jose; Zaporozhets, Sergey; Zardoshti, Nima; Zarochentsev, Andrey; Zavada, Petr; Zavyalov, Nikolay; Zbroszczyk, Hanna Paulina; Zgura, Sorin Ion; Zhalov, Mikhail; Zhang, Haitao; Zhang, Xiaoming; Zhang, Yonghong; Chunhui, Zhang; Zhang, Zuman; Zhao, Chengxin; Zhigareva, Natalia; Zhou, Daicui; Zhou, You; Zhou, Zhuo; Zhu, Hongsheng; Zhu, Jianhui; Zichichi, Antonino; Zimmermann, Alice; Zimmermann, Markus Bernhard; Zinovjev, Gennady; Zyzak, Maksym

2016-05-25

We present a Bayesian approach to particle identification (PID) within the ALICE experiment. The aim is to more effectively combine the particle identification capabilities of its various detectors. After a brief explanation of the adopted methodology and formalism, the performance of the Bayesian PID approach for charged pions, kaons and protons in the central barrel of ALICE is studied. PID is performed via measurements of specific energy loss (dE/dx) and time-of-flight. PID efficiencies and misidentification probabilities are extracted and compared with Monte Carlo simulations using high purity samples of identified particles in the decay channels ${\\rm K}_{\\rm S}^{\\rm 0}\\rightarrow \\pi^+\\pi^-$, $\\phi\\rightarrow {\\rm K}^-{\\rm K}^+$ and $\\Lambda\\rightarrow{\\rm p}\\pi^-$ in p–Pb collisions at $\\sqrt{s_{\\rm NN}}= 5.02$TeV. In order to thoroughly assess the validity of the Bayesian approach, this methodology was used to obtain corrected $p_{\\rm T}$ spectra of pions, kaons, protons, and D$^0$ mesons in pp coll...

Risk Based Maintenance of Offshore Wind Turbines Using Bayesian Networks

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jannie Jessen; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

2010-01-01

This paper presents how Bayesian networks can be used to make optimal decisions for repairs of offshore wind turbines. The Bayesian network is an efficient tool for updating a deterioration model whenever new information becomes available from inspections/monitoring. The optimal decision is found...... such that the preventive maintenance effort is balanced against the costs to corrective maintenance including indirect costs to reduced production. The basis for the optimization is the risk based Bayesian decision theory. The method is demonstrated through an application example....

Bayesian outcome-based strategy classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Michael D

2016-03-01

Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014) recently developed a method for making inferences about the decision processes people use in multi-attribute forced choice tasks. Their paper makes a number of worthwhile theoretical and methodological contributions. Theoretically, they provide an insightful psychological motivation for a probabilistic extension of the widely-used "weighted additive" (WADD) model, and show how this model, as well as other important models like "take-the-best" (TTB), can and should be expressed in terms of meaningful priors. Methodologically, they develop an inference approach based on the Minimum Description Length (MDL) principles that balances both the goodness-of-fit and complexity of the decision models they consider. This paper aims to preserve these useful contributions, but provide a complementary Bayesian approach with some theoretical and methodological advantages. We develop a simple graphical model, implemented in JAGS, that allows for fully Bayesian inferences about which models people use to make decisions. To demonstrate the Bayesian approach, we apply it to the models and data considered by Hilbig and Moshagen (Psychonomic Bulletin & Review, 21, 1431-1443, 2014), showing how a prior predictive analysis of the models, and posterior inferences about which models people use and the parameter settings at which they use them, can contribute to our understanding of human decision making.

A Bayesian nonparametric approach to causal inference on quantiles.

Science.gov (United States)

Xu, Dandan; Daniels, Michael J; Winterstein, Almut G

2018-02-25

We propose a Bayesian nonparametric approach (BNP) for causal inference on quantiles in the presence of many confounders. In particular, we define relevant causal quantities and specify BNP models to avoid bias from restrictive parametric assumptions. We first use Bayesian additive regression trees (BART) to model the propensity score and then construct the distribution of potential outcomes given the propensity score using a Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) of normals model. We thoroughly evaluate the operating characteristics of our approach and compare it to Bayesian and frequentist competitors. We use our approach to answer an important clinical question involving acute kidney injury using electronic health records. © 2018, The International Biometric Society.

Tradition and Creativity. Toward a Study of Intericonicity in Ancient Egyptian Art

OpenAIRE

Laboury, Dimitri

2017-01-01

Although a key-concept in Art historical discourse and reasoning, creativity has almost always been avoided as an issue in the discussion of Ancient Egyptian Art, as if the notion was simply irrelevant in such a context. This surprising phenomenon has clearly deep roots in the history of the western vision of Ancient Egyptian Art (and civilization). Nonetheless, the investigation of some (actually quite rare) cases of true copies in Ancient Egyptian Art reveals that creativity operated within...

Approximate Bayesian computation.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mikael Sunnåker

Full Text Available Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC constitutes a class of computational methods rooted in Bayesian statistics. In all model-based statistical inference, the likelihood function is of central importance, since it expresses the probability of the observed data under a particular statistical model, and thus quantifies the support data lend to particular values of parameters and to choices among different models. For simple models, an analytical formula for the likelihood function can typically be derived. However, for more complex models, an analytical formula might be elusive or the likelihood function might be computationally very costly to evaluate. ABC methods bypass the evaluation of the likelihood function. In this way, ABC methods widen the realm of models for which statistical inference can be considered. ABC methods are mathematically well-founded, but they inevitably make assumptions and approximations whose impact needs to be carefully assessed. Furthermore, the wider application domain of ABC exacerbates the challenges of parameter estimation and model selection. ABC has rapidly gained popularity over the last years and in particular for the analysis of complex problems arising in biological sciences (e.g., in population genetics, ecology, epidemiology, and systems biology.

Probability and Bayesian statistics

CERN Document Server

1987-01-01

This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter­ national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga­ nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa­ pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub­ jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...

Balanced sensitivity functions for tuning multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bolt, J.H.; van der Gaag, L.C.

Multi-dimensional Bayesian network classifiers are Bayesian networks of restricted topological structure, which are tailored to classifying data instances into multiple dimensions. Like more traditional classifiers, multi-dimensional classifiers are typically learned from data and may include

Peopling the past: new perspectives on the ancient Maya.

Science.gov (United States)

Robin, C

2001-01-02

The new direction in Maya archaeology is toward achieving a greater understanding of people and their roles and their relations in the past. To answer emerging humanistic questions about ancient people's lives Mayanists are increasingly making use of new and existing scientific methods from archaeology and other disciplines. Maya archaeology is bridging the divide between the humanities and sciences to answer questions about ancient people previously considered beyond the realm of archaeological knowledge.

Uses and misuses of Bayes' rule and Bayesian classifiers in cybersecurity

Science.gov (United States)

Bard, Gregory V.

2017-12-01

This paper will discuss the applications of Bayes' Rule and Bayesian Classifiers in Cybersecurity. While the most elementary form of Bayes' rule occurs in undergraduate coursework, there are more complicated forms as well. As an extended example, Bayesian spam filtering is explored, and is in many ways the most triumphant accomplishment of Bayesian reasoning in computer science, as nearly everyone with an email address has a spam folder. Bayesian Classifiers have also been responsible significant cybersecurity research results; yet, because they are not part of the standard curriculum, few in the mathematics or information-technology communities have seen the exact definitions, requirements, and proofs that comprise the subject. Moreover, numerous errors have been made by researchers (described in this paper), due to some mathematical misunderstandings dealing with conditional independence, or other badly chosen assumptions. Finally, to provide instructors and researchers with real-world examples, 25 published cybersecurity papers that use Bayesian reasoning are given, with 2-4 sentence summaries of the focus and contributions of each paper.

Efficient fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithms for incorporating expert knowledge in parameter estimation

Science.gov (United States)

Rajabi, Mohammad Mahdi; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad

2016-05-01

Bayesian inference has traditionally been conceived as the proper framework for the formal incorporation of expert knowledge in parameter estimation of groundwater models. However, conventional Bayesian inference is incapable of taking into account the imprecision essentially embedded in expert provided information. In order to solve this problem, a number of extensions to conventional Bayesian inference have been introduced in recent years. One of these extensions is 'fuzzy Bayesian inference' which is the result of integrating fuzzy techniques into Bayesian statistics. Fuzzy Bayesian inference has a number of desirable features which makes it an attractive approach for incorporating expert knowledge in the parameter estimation process of groundwater models: (1) it is well adapted to the nature of expert provided information, (2) it allows to distinguishably model both uncertainty and imprecision, and (3) it presents a framework for fusing expert provided information regarding the various inputs of the Bayesian inference algorithm. However an important obstacle in employing fuzzy Bayesian inference in groundwater numerical modeling applications is the computational burden, as the required number of numerical model simulations often becomes extremely exhaustive and often computationally infeasible. In this paper, a novel approach of accelerating the fuzzy Bayesian inference algorithm is proposed which is based on using approximate posterior distributions derived from surrogate modeling, as a screening tool in the computations. The proposed approach is first applied to a synthetic test case of seawater intrusion (SWI) in a coastal aquifer. It is shown that for this synthetic test case, the proposed approach decreases the number of required numerical simulations by an order of magnitude. Then the proposed approach is applied to a real-world test case involving three-dimensional numerical modeling of SWI in Kish Island, located in the Persian Gulf. An expert

Discriminative Bayesian Dictionary Learning for Classification.

Science.gov (United States)

Akhtar, Naveed; Shafait, Faisal; Mian, Ajmal

2016-12-01

We propose a Bayesian approach to learn discriminative dictionaries for sparse representation of data. The proposed approach infers probability distributions over the atoms of a discriminative dictionary using a finite approximation of Beta Process. It also computes sets of Bernoulli distributions that associate class labels to the learned dictionary atoms. This association signifies the selection probabilities of the dictionary atoms in the expansion of class-specific data. Furthermore, the non-parametric character of the proposed approach allows it to infer the correct size of the dictionary. We exploit the aforementioned Bernoulli distributions in separately learning a linear classifier. The classifier uses the same hierarchical Bayesian model as the dictionary, which we present along the analytical inference solution for Gibbs sampling. For classification, a test instance is first sparsely encoded over the learned dictionary and the codes are fed to the classifier. We performed experiments for face and action recognition; and object and scene-category classification using five public datasets and compared the results with state-of-the-art discriminative sparse representation approaches. Experiments show that the proposed Bayesian approach consistently outperforms the existing approaches.

Risk-sensitivity in Bayesian sensorimotor integration.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Grau-Moya

Full Text Available Information processing in the nervous system during sensorimotor tasks with inherent uncertainty has been shown to be consistent with Bayesian integration. Bayes optimal decision-makers are, however, risk-neutral in the sense that they weigh all possibilities based on prior expectation and sensory evidence when they choose the action with highest expected value. In contrast, risk-sensitive decision-makers are sensitive to model uncertainty and bias their decision-making processes when they do inference over unobserved variables. In particular, they allow deviations from their probabilistic model in cases where this model makes imprecise predictions. Here we test for risk-sensitivity in a sensorimotor integration task where subjects exhibit Bayesian information integration when they infer the position of a target from noisy sensory feedback. When introducing a cost associated with subjects' response, we found that subjects exhibited a characteristic bias towards low cost responses when their uncertainty was high. This result is in accordance with risk-sensitive decision-making processes that allow for deviations from Bayes optimal decision-making in the face of uncertainty. Our results suggest that both Bayesian integration and risk-sensitivity are important factors to understand sensorimotor integration in a quantitative fashion.

Perseus Project: Interactive Teaching and Research Tools for Ancient Greek Civilization.

Science.gov (United States)

Crane, Gregory; Harward, V. Judson

1987-01-01

Describes the Perseus Project, an educational program utilizing computer technology to study ancient Greek civilization. Including approximately 10 percent of all ancient literature and visual information on architecture, sculpture, ceramics, topography, and archaeology, the project spans a range of disciplines. States that Perseus fuels student…