Fasting Glucose GWAS Candidate Region Analysis across Ethnic Groups in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

OpenAIRE

Rasmussen-Torvik, L. J.; Guo, X.; Bowden, D. W.; Bertoni, A. G.; Sale, M. M.; Yao, J.; Bluemke, D. A.; Goodarzi, M. O.; Chen, Y. I.; Vaidya, D.; Raffel, L. J.; Papanicolaou, G.J.; Meigs, J. B.; Pankow, J. S.

2012-01-01

Genetic variants associated with fasting glucose in European ancestry populations are increasingly well understood. However, the nature of the associations between these SNPs and fasting glucose in other racial and ethnic groups is unclear. We sought to examine regions previously identified to be associated with fasting glucose in Caucasian GWAS across multiple ethnicities in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Non-diabetic MESA participants with fasting glucose measured at the ...

Value of information analysis for Corrective Action Unit Nos. 101 and 102: Central and western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-09-01

The purpose of this report is to describe the basis for and present the results of a value of information analysis (VOIA) for the Pahute Mesa underground test area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS), one of several areas of the Nevada Test Site used for underground nuclear testing in the past. The value of information analysis was used to evaluate and compare potential characterization options at the Pahute Mesa underground test area for site remediation purposes. Thirty six characterization options were evaluated, ranging from a single, inexpensive study using existing data and intended to address a single question or uncertainty, to a forty-million-dollar suite of activities designed to collect and analyze new information to address multiple uncertainties. The characterization options were compared and ranked based on how effective the experts though the information collection would be in reducing uncertainties, how this effected the distance to contaminant boundary, and the cost of the option

Canine neoplasia and exposure to uranium mill tailings in Mesa County, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reif, J.S.; Schweitzer, D.J.; Ferguson, S.W.; Benjamin, S.A.

1983-01-01

A canine cancer registry was established for Mesa County, Colorado in order to collect material for a case control analysis of exposure to uranium tailings. Between 1979 and 1981, 212 cases of canine cancer were confirmed histologically. Based on the address provided at the time of diagnosis, 33 dogs (15.6%) lived in a house with some exposure to uranium tailings. A control group, comprised of dogs with a histologic diagnosis other than cancer, was stratified according to hospital and matched with cases on a 1:1 basis. No significant differences were noted with respect to exposure to uranium tailings for total cancers or cancers of specific sites including lymph node, breast, liver, testicle and bone. The overall estimated relative risk was 0.70 (95% CI 0.04 to 1.16). Canine population estimates were derived for Mesa County in order to develop crude incidence rates for the major types and sites of cancer. Crude rates were compared with those published previously for Alameda County, California and Tulsa County, Oklahoma. Mesa County rates for total cancer incidence, connective tissue tumors and non melanoma skin cancer were higher than those reported for Alameda County. When compared with Tulsa County, Mesa County rates for total cancer, breast cancer, melanoma and mastocytoma were lower than expected while rates for osteosarcoma, hemangiosarcoma and fibrosarcoma significantly exceeded expected values

Alternative Fuels Data Center: Mesa Unified School District Reaps Economic

Science.gov (United States)

and Environmental Benefits with Propane Buses Mesa Unified School District Reaps Economic and School District Reaps Economic and Environmental Benefits with Propane Buses on Facebook Tweet about Alternative Fuels Data Center: Mesa Unified School District Reaps Economic and Environmental Benefits with

MODULES FOR EXPERIMENTS IN STELLAR ASTROPHYSICS (MESA): PLANETS, OSCILLATIONS, ROTATION, AND MASSIVE STARS

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paxton, Bill; Cantiello, Matteo; Bildsten, Lars; Arras, Phil; Brown, Edward F.; Dotter, Aaron; Mankovich, Christopher; Montgomery, M. H.; Stello, Dennis; Timmes, F. X.; Townsend, Richard

2013-01-01

We substantially update the capabilities of the open source software package Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and its one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESA star. Improvements in MESA star's ability to model the evolution of giant planets now extends its applicability down to masses as low as one-tenth that of Jupiter. The dramatic improvement in asteroseismology enabled by the space-based Kepler and CoRoT missions motivates our full coupling of the ADIPLS adiabatic pulsation code with MESA star. This also motivates a numerical recasting of the Ledoux criterion that is more easily implemented when many nuclei are present at non-negligible abundances. This impacts the way in which MESA star calculates semi-convective and thermohaline mixing. We exhibit the evolution of 3-8 M ☉ stars through the end of core He burning, the onset of He thermal pulses, and arrival on the white dwarf cooling sequence. We implement diffusion of angular momentum and chemical abundances that enable calculations of rotating-star models, which we compare thoroughly with earlier work. We introduce a new treatment of radiation-dominated envelopes that allows the uninterrupted evolution of massive stars to core collapse. This enables the generation of new sets of supernovae, long gamma-ray burst, and pair-instability progenitor models. We substantially modify the way in which MESA star solves the fully coupled stellar structure and composition equations, and we show how this has improved the scaling of MESA's calculational speed on multi-core processors. Updates to the modules for equation of state, opacity, nuclear reaction rates, and atmospheric boundary conditions are also provided. We describe the MESA Software Development Kit that packages all the required components needed to form a unified, maintained, and well-validated build environment for MESA. We also highlight a few tools developed by the community for rapid visualization of MESA star results

Nature and extent of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Prothro, L.B.; Drellack, S.L. Jr.

1997-09-01

Work is currently underway within the Underground Test Area subproject of the US Department of Energy/Nevada Operations Office Environmental Restoration Program to develop corrective action plans in support of the overall corrective action strategy for the Nevada Test Site as established in the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO, 1996). A closure plan is currently being developed for Pahute Mesa, which has been identified in the FFACO as consisting of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units. Part of this effort requires that hydrogeologic data be compiled for inclusion in a regional model that will be used to predict a contaminant boundary for these Corrective Action Units. Hydrogeologic maps have been prepared for use in the model to define the nature and extent of aquifers and confining units that might influence the flow of contaminated groundwater from underground nuclear tests conducted at Pahute Mesa. Much of the groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa occurs within lava-flow aquifers. An understanding of the distribution and hydraulic character of these important hydrogeologic units is necessary to accurately model groundwater flow beneath Pahute Mesa. This report summarizes the results of a study by Bechtel Nevada geologists to better define the hydrogeology of lava-flow aquifers at Pahute Mesa. The purpose of this study was twofold: (1) aid in the development of the hydrostratigraphic framework for Pahute Mesa, and (2) provide information on the distribution and hydraulic character of lava-flow aquifers beneath Pahute Mesa for more accurate computer modeling of the Western and Central Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Units.

Fabrication study of GaAs mesa diodes for X-ray detection

OpenAIRE

Ng, J.S.; Meng, X.; Lees, J.E.; Barnett, A.; Tan, C.H.

2014-01-01

A study of leakage currents using GaAs mesa p-i-n diodes for X-ray photon counting is presented. Different wet chemical etching solution and etch depth were used in the fabrication of these mesa diodes. Low and uniform leakage currents were achieved when the diode fabrication used (i) a combination of main etching solution and finishing etching solution for the etching, and (ii) partially etched mesas. The diodes fabricated using these methods showed well-defined X-ray peaks when illuminated ...

Hydraulic characterization of volcanic rocks in Pahute Mesa using an integrated analysis of 16 multiple-well aquifer tests, Nevada National Security Site, 2009–14

Science.gov (United States)

Garcia, C. Amanda; Jackson, Tracie R.; Halford, Keith J.; Sweetkind, Donald S.; Damar, Nancy A.; Fenelon, Joseph M.; Reiner, Steven R.

2017-01-20

An improved understanding of groundwater flow and radionuclide migration downgradient from underground nuclear-testing areas at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, requires accurate subsurface hydraulic characterization. To improve conceptual models of flow and transport in the complex hydrogeologic system beneath Pahute Mesa, the U.S. Geological Survey characterized bulk hydraulic properties of volcanic rocks using an integrated analysis of 16 multiple-well aquifer tests. Single-well aquifer-test analyses provided transmissivity estimates at pumped wells. Transmissivity estimates ranged from less than 1 to about 100,000 square feet per day in Pahute Mesa and the vicinity. Drawdown from multiple-well aquifer testing was estimated and distinguished from natural fluctuations in more than 200 pumping and observation wells using analytical water-level models. Drawdown was detected at distances greater than 3 miles from pumping wells and propagated across hydrostratigraphic units and major structures, indicating that neither faults nor structural blocks noticeably impede or divert groundwater flow in the study area.Consistent hydraulic properties were estimated by simultaneously interpreting drawdown from the 16 multiple-well aquifer tests with an integrated groundwater-flow model composed of 11 well-site models—1 for each aquifer test site. Hydraulic properties were distributed across volcanic rocks with the Phase II Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model. Estimated hydraulic-conductivity distributions spanned more than two orders of magnitude in hydrostratigraphic units. Overlapping hydraulic conductivity ranges among units indicated that most Phase II Hydrostratigraphic Framework Model units were not hydraulically distinct. Simulated total transmissivity ranged from 1,600 to 68,000 square feet per day for all pumping wells analyzed. High-transmissivity zones exceeding 10,000 square feet per day exist near caldera margins and extend

MODULES FOR EXPERIMENTS IN STELLAR ASTROPHYSICS (MESA): PLANETS, OSCILLATIONS, ROTATION, AND MASSIVE STARS

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paxton, Bill; Cantiello, Matteo; Bildsten, Lars [Kavli Institute for Theoretical Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Arras, Phil [Department of Astronomy, University of Virginia, P.O. Box 400325, Charlottesville, VA 22904-4325 (United States); Brown, Edward F. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, and Joint Institute for Nuclear Astrophysics, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48864 (United States); Dotter, Aaron [Research School of Astronomy and Astrophysics, The Australian National University, Weston, ACT 2611 (Australia); Mankovich, Christopher [Department of Physics, University of California, Santa Barbara, CA 93106 (United States); Montgomery, M. H. [Department of Astronomy and McDonald Observatory, University of Texas, Austin, TX 78712 (United States); Stello, Dennis [Sydney Institute for Astronomy (SIfA), School of Physics, University of Sydney, NSW 2006 (Australia); Timmes, F. X. [School of Earth and Space Exploration, Arizona State University, Tempe, AZ 85287 (United States); Townsend, Richard, E-mail: matteo@kitp.ucsb.edu [Department of Astronomy, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Madison, WI 53706 (United States)

2013-09-15

We substantially update the capabilities of the open source software package Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and its one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESA star. Improvements in MESA star's ability to model the evolution of giant planets now extends its applicability down to masses as low as one-tenth that of Jupiter. The dramatic improvement in asteroseismology enabled by the space-based Kepler and CoRoT missions motivates our full coupling of the ADIPLS adiabatic pulsation code with MESA star. This also motivates a numerical recasting of the Ledoux criterion that is more easily implemented when many nuclei are present at non-negligible abundances. This impacts the way in which MESA star calculates semi-convective and thermohaline mixing. We exhibit the evolution of 3-8 M{sub Sun} stars through the end of core He burning, the onset of He thermal pulses, and arrival on the white dwarf cooling sequence. We implement diffusion of angular momentum and chemical abundances that enable calculations of rotating-star models, which we compare thoroughly with earlier work. We introduce a new treatment of radiation-dominated envelopes that allows the uninterrupted evolution of massive stars to core collapse. This enables the generation of new sets of supernovae, long gamma-ray burst, and pair-instability progenitor models. We substantially modify the way in which MESA star solves the fully coupled stellar structure and composition equations, and we show how this has improved the scaling of MESA's calculational speed on multi-core processors. Updates to the modules for equation of state, opacity, nuclear reaction rates, and atmospheric boundary conditions are also provided. We describe the MESA Software Development Kit that packages all the required components needed to form a unified, maintained, and well-validated build environment for MESA. We also highlight a few tools developed by the community for rapid visualization of MESA star

Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Convective Boundaries, Element Diffusion, and Massive Star Explosions

Science.gov (United States)

Paxton, Bill; Schwab, Josiah; Bauer, Evan B.; Bildsten, Lars; Blinnikov, Sergei; Duffell, Paul; Farmer, R.; Goldberg, Jared A.; Marchant, Pablo; Sorokina, Elena; Thoul, Anne; Townsend, Richard H. D.; Timmes, F. X.

2018-02-01

We update the capabilities of the software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) and enhance its ease of use and availability. Our new approach to locating convective boundaries is consistent with the physics of convection, and yields reliable values of the convective-core mass during both hydrogen- and helium-burning phases. Stars with Meffects of Rayleigh-Taylor instabilities that, in combination with the coupling to a public version of the STELLA radiation transfer instrument, creates new avenues for exploring Type II supernova properties. These capabilities are exhibited with exploratory models of pair-instability supernovae, pulsational pair-instability supernovae, and the formation of stellar-mass black holes. The applicability of MESA is now widened by the capability to import multidimensional hydrodynamic models into MESA. We close by introducing software modules for handling floating point exceptions and stellar model optimization, as well as four new software tools - MESA-Web, MESA-Docker, pyMESA, and mesastar.org - to enhance MESA's education and research impact.

MESA: Message-Based System Analysis Using Runtime Verification

Science.gov (United States)

Shafiei, Nastaran; Tkachuk, Oksana; Mehlitz, Peter

2017-01-01

In this paper, we present a novel approach and framework for run-time verication of large, safety critical messaging systems. This work was motivated by verifying the System Wide Information Management (SWIM) project of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). SWIM provides live air traffic, site and weather data streams for the whole National Airspace System (NAS), which can easily amount to several hundred messages per second. Such safety critical systems cannot be instrumented, therefore, verification and monitoring has to happen using a nonintrusive approach, by connecting to a variety of network interfaces. Due to a large number of potential properties to check, the verification framework needs to support efficient formulation of properties with a suitable Domain Specific Language (DSL). Our approach is to utilize a distributed system that is geared towards connectivity and scalability and interface it at the message queue level to a powerful verification engine. We implemented our approach in the tool called MESA: Message-Based System Analysis, which leverages the open source projects RACE (Runtime for Airspace Concept Evaluation) and TraceContract. RACE is a platform for instantiating and running highly concurrent and distributed systems and enables connectivity to SWIM and scalability. TraceContract is a runtime verication tool that allows for checking traces against properties specified in a powerful DSL. We applied our approach to verify a SWIM service against several requirements.We found errors such as duplicate and out-of-order messages.

Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

McCord, John

2004-01-01

caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document

3D Tomography of a Mesa Using Cosmic Ray Muons Detected in an Underground Tunnel

Science.gov (United States)

Guardincerri, E.; Rowe, C. A.

2016-12-01

The LANL Mini Muon Tracker (MMT) is a muon tracking detector made of sealed aluminum drift tubes. The MMT was operated at four locations inside a tunnel under the Los Alamos town site mesa between November 2015 and February 2016 and it collected cosmic ray muons attenuated by the tunnel overburden. The data were analyzed and used to obtain a 3D tomographic image of the mesa and will be later combined with gravity data collected around the same location. We describe here the muon data taking and their analysis, and we show the resulting 3D image.

NPDES Permit for Mesa Verde National Park Wastewater Treatment Facility in Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Under NPDES permit number CO-0034398, the United States Department of the Interior, National Park Service, Mesa Verde National Park is authorized to discharge from the Mesa Verde National Park wastewater treatment plant, in Montezuma County, Colo.

Decision analysis multicriteria analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lombard, J.

1986-09-01

The ALARA procedure covers a wide range of decisions from the simplest to the most complex one. For the simplest one the engineering judgement is generally enough and the use of a decision aiding technique is therefore not necessary. For some decisions the comparison of the available protection option may be performed from two or a few criteria (or attributes) (protection cost, collective dose,...) and the use of rather simple decision aiding techniques, like the Cost Effectiveness Analysis or the Cost Benefit Analysis, is quite enough. For the more complex decisions, involving numerous criteria or for decisions involving large uncertainties or qualitative judgement the use of these techniques, even the extended cost benefit analysis, is not recommended and appropriate techniques like multi-attribute decision aiding techniques are more relevant. There is a lot of such particular techniques and it is not possible to present all of them. Therefore only two broad categories of multi-attribute decision aiding techniques will be presented here: decision analysis and the outranking analysis

Modeling unsaturated-zone flow at Rainier Mesa as a possible analog for a future Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gauthier, J.H.

1998-01-01

Rainier Mesa is structurally similar to Yucca Mountain, and receives precipitation similar to the estimated long-term average for Yucca Mountain. Tunnels through the unsaturated zone at Rainier Mesa have encountered perched water and, after the perched water was drained, flow in fractures and faults. Although flow observations have been primarily qualitative, Rainier Mesa hydrology is a potential analog for Yucca Mountain hydrology in a wetter climate. In this paper, a groundwater flow model that has been used in the performance assessment of Yucca Mountain--the weeps model--is applied to Rainier Mesa. The intent is to gain insight in both Rainier Mesa and the weeps flow model

Mesa Verde: A Study of Man in an Agricultural Setting. Student Manual.

Science.gov (United States)

Community Health Service (DHEW/PHS), Bethesda, MD.

This student manual contains information and guides to assist the secondary student in functioning as an archeologist. Included are fables, pictures for analysis, a time line and description of the pre-history of Mesa Verde, Colorado. The manual concludes with artifact identification word sheets. A related document is ED 001 722. (AWW)

Bats of Mesa Verde National Park, Colorado: composition, reproduction, and roosting habits.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Shea, Thomas J.; Cryan, Paul M.; Snider, E. Apple; Valdez, Ernest W.; Ellison, Laura E.; Neubaum, Daniel J.

2011-01-01

We determined the bat fauna at Mesa Verde National Park (Mesa Verde) in 2006 and 2007, characterized bat elevational distribution and reproduction, and investigated roosting habits of selected species. We captured 1996 bats of 15 species in mist nets set over water during 120 nights of sampling and recorded echolocation calls of an additional species. The bat fauna at Mesa Verde included every species of bat known west of the Great Plains in Colorado, except the little brown bat (Myotis lucifugus). Some species showed skewed sex ratios, primarily due to a preponderance of males. Thirteen species of bats reproduced at Mesa Verde. Major differences in spring precipitation between the 2 years of our study were associated with differences in reproductive rates and, in some species, with numbers of juveniles captured. Reduced reproductive effort during spring drought will have a greater impact on bat populations with the forecasted increase in aridity in much of western North America by models of global climate change. We radiotracked 46 bats of 5 species to roosts and describe the first-known maternity colonies of spotted bats (Euderma maculatum) in Colorado. All 5 species that we tracked to diurnal roosts relied almost exclusively on rock crevices rather than trees or snags, despite the presence of mature forests at Mesa Verde and the use of trees for roosts in similar forests elsewhere by some of these species. Comparisons with past bat surveys at Mesa Verde and in surrounding areas suggest no dramatic evidence for effects of recent stand-replacing fires on the composition of the bat community.

LOPEZ DE MESA Y LA MEDICINA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Humberto Roselli

1985-04-01

Full Text Available

Hace apenas dos meses la Academia Nacional de Medicina y la Sociedad Colombiana de Historia de la Medicina iniciaban en este mismo recinto el homenaje del cuerpo médico colombiano a la memoria del Profesor Luis López de Mesa con motivo del primer centenario de su nacimiento, homenaje que ahora culmina con esta nueva sesión solenme conjunta.

Fue la del Profesor López de Mesa una vida eminente en grado sumo, habiéndose destacado en todas las actividades que emprendiera, como se ha recordado profudamente en estos días. Autor de más de 20 obras que incluyeron novelas, tratados de sociología, de historia colombiana, ensayos filosóficos y reflexiones personales; hombre público que se destacó como Ministro de Educación, como parlamentario y diplomático, y luego como Ministro de Relaciones Exteriores, Rector de la Universidad Nacional; Académico y Presidente de la Academia Nacional de Medicina,Miembro de las de la Lengua, de Historia y de Ciencia Exactas, Físicas y Naturales; Presidente del Colegio Máximo de Academias; prácticamente no hubo campo de la inteligencia y de la cultura colombianas que el Profesor López de Mesa no hubiera tocado con éxito y en los cuales no hubiera dejado huellas de su pensamiento y de su trajín humanista. Se le considera como uno de los fundadores de la sociología en Colombia y un estilista difícil pero correcto y profundo. La trayectoria de su vida pública es aún ampliamente recordada en nuestro medio.

En aquella ocasión hicimos un repaso de la carrera del Profesor López de Mesa como médico y psiquiatra y escudriñamos algunas de las circunstancias de su formación científica que habrían posteriormente de reflejarse en su obra como sociólogo y estadista.! En esta oportunidad resumimos aquellos y algunos otros detalles.

Legal Knowledge as a Tool for Social Change: La Mesa por la Vida y la Salud de las Mujeres as an Expert on Colombian Abortion Law.

Science.gov (United States)

González Vélez, Ana Cristina; Jaramillo, Isabel Cristina

2017-06-01

In May 2006, Colombia's Constitutional Court liberalized abortion, introducing three circumstances under which the procedure would not be considered a crime: (1) rape or incest; (2) a risk to the woman's health or life; and (3) fetal malformations incompatible with life. Immediately following the court's ruling, known as Sentence C-355, members of La Mesa por la Vida y Salud de las Mujeres (hereinafter La Mesa) began to mobilize to ensure the decision's implementation, bearing in mind the limited impact that the legal framework endorsed by the court has had in other countries in the region. We argue that La Mesa's strategy is an innovative one in the field of legal mobilization insofar as it presumes that law can be shaped not just by public officials and universities but also by social actors engaged in the creation and diffusion of legal knowledge. In this regard, La Mesa has become a legal expert on abortion by accumulating knowledge about the multiple legal rules affecting the practice of abortion and about the situations in which these rules are to be applied. In addition, by becoming a legal expert, La Mesa has been able to persuade health providers that they will not risk criminal prosecution or being fired if they perform abortions. We call this effect of legal mobilization a "pedagogical effect" insofar as it involves the production of expertise and appropriation of knowledge by health professionals. We conclude by discussing La Mesa's choice to become a legal expert on abortion as opposed to recruiting academics to do this work or encouraging women to produce and disseminate this knowledge.

Estimation of Groundwater Recharge at Pahute Mesa using the Chloride Mass-Balance Method

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cooper, Clay A [DRI; Hershey, Ronald L [DRI; Healey, John M [DRI; Lyles, Brad F [DRI

2013-07-01

Groundwater recharge on Pahute Mesa was estimated using the chloride mass-balance (CMB) method. This method relies on the conservative properties of chloride to trace its movement from the atmosphere as dry- and wet-deposition through the soil zone and ultimately to the saturated zone. Typically, the CMB method assumes no mixing of groundwater with different chloride concentrations; however, because groundwater is thought to flow into Pahute Mesa from valleys north of Pahute Mesa, groundwater flow rates (i.e., underflow) and chloride concentrations from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat were carefully considered. Precipitation was measured with bulk and tipping-bucket precipitation gauges installed for this study at six sites on Pahute Mesa. These data, along with historical precipitation amounts from gauges on Pahute Mesa and estimates from the PRISM model, were evaluated to estimate mean annual precipitation. Chloride deposition from the atmosphere was estimated by analyzing quarterly samples of wet- and dry-deposition for chloride in the bulk gauges and evaluating chloride wet-deposition amounts measured at other locations by the National Atmospheric Deposition Program. Mean chloride concentrations in groundwater were estimated using data from the UGTA Geochemistry Database, data from other reports, and data from samples collected from emplacement boreholes for this study. Calculations were conducted assuming both no underflow and underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. Model results estimate recharge to be 30 mm/yr with a standard deviation of 18 mm/yr on Pahute Mesa, for elevations >1800 m amsl. These estimates assume Pahute Mesa recharge mixes completely with underflow from Kawich Valley and Gold Flat. The model assumes that precipitation, chloride concentration in bulk deposition, underflow and its chloride concentration, have been constant over the length of time of recharge.

Cancer incidence study in Mesa County, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ouimette, D.R.; Ferguson, S.W.; Zoglo, D.; Murphy, S.; Alley, S.; Bahler, S.

1983-01-01

In November of 1982 the Colorado Department of Health completed an epidemiologic investigation of leukemia, multiple myeloma, and cancers of the lung, stomach, pancreas and colon in Mesa County, Colorado for the years 1970 to 1979. This investigation was performed in response to a concern that the presence of uranium mill tailings in some Mesa County homes presents a potential cancer hazard. The results of the investigation show that the incidence of multiple myeloma, colon, stomach and pancreatic cancer are not above expected rates. The incidence of leukemia is not above expected rates for the entire study period, 1970 to 1979. The incidence of lung cancer appears elevated when compared to the The Third National Cancer Survey data for Colorado but lower than expected when compared to Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results data. To further examine the leukemia and lung cancer incidence findings, a case/control study was conducted. The controls consisted of colon, stomach and pancreatic cancer cases. The results of the leukemia case/control analysis show no association with the radiation exposure variables: occupational radiation exposure; uranium mining exposure; having ever lived in a type A home (uranium tailings home); and radiation therapy. The lung cancer case/control analysis shows a significant association with only the radiation exposure variable, uranium mining history, indicating cases were more likely to have been uranium miners than were controls. As with leukemia, the study found no association between lung cancer and living in a uranium mill tailings home. The relatively low radiation exposures typical of type A homes and the small number of persons exposed make it very difficult to establish, by epidemiologic methods, that a risk exists

MESA: Supporting Teaching and Learning about the Marine Environment--Primary Science Focus

Science.gov (United States)

Preston, Christine

2010-01-01

The Marine Education Society of Australasia (MESA) Inc. is a national organisation of marine educators that aims to bring together people interested in the study and enjoyment of coastal and marine environments. MESA representatives and members organise education and interpretation activities in support of schools and communities during a number…

Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Giant Planets, Oscillations, Rotation, and Massive Stars

OpenAIRE

Paxton, Bill; Cantiello, Matteo; Arras, Phil; Bildsten, Lars; Brown, Edward F.; Dotter, Aaron; Mankovich, Christopher; Montgomery, M. H.; Stello, Dennis; Timmes, F. X.; Townsend, Richard

2013-01-01

We substantially update the capabilities of the open source software package Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA), and its one-dimensional stellar evolution module, MESA Star. Improvements in MESA Star's ability to model the evolution of giant planets now extends its applicability down to masses as low as one-tenth that of Jupiter. The dramatic improvement in asteroseismology enabled by the space-based Kepler and CoRoT missions motivates our full coupling of the ADIPLS adiab...

Opportunities for parity violating electron scattering experiments at the planned MESA facility

Science.gov (United States)

Aulenbacher, Kurt

2011-11-01

We suggest to start an accelerator physics project called the Mainz Energy recovering Superconducting Accelerator (MESA) as an extension to our experimental facilities. MESA may allow to introduce an innovative internal target regime based on the ERL principle. A second mode of operation will be to use an external polarized electron beam for parity violating experiments.

Annotated bibliography of the physical data of Rainier Mesa and Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Russell, C.E.

1988-09-01

Yucca Mountain, located on and adjacent to the Nevada Test Site (NTS) has been designated as the only site to undergo characterization to determine if it meets the criteria to become the Nation's first high-level nuclear waste repository. During this process, care must be taken to not compromise the site's integrity through excessive testing. In order to supplement the limited data to be gathered at Yucca Mountain, analog areas are to be considered. This annotated bibliography was compiled by the Desert Research Institute to help investigate ways in which Rainier Mesa could either be used as a supplemental repository test site or where existing Rainier Mesa data can be used either to support or refute test results from Yucca Mountain. Rainier Mesa, the location of numerous underground nuclear tests on the NTS, possesses some geologic characteristics similar to those of Yucca Mountain, which makes it a likely candidate for comparison. Almost 500 references regarding geology, hydrology, meteorology, biology, and archaeology were annotated and entered alpha-numerically into the bibliography. These references were categorized into 50 topics which are defined in Section 2 and presented in Section 3. Each reference is categorized as to whether it contains Yucca Mountain data, Rainier Mesa data, or both, and a final category consists of those reports that contain Rainier Mesa data that have already been applied to Yucca Mountain research. The annotated bibliography is presented in Section 4

Is the Mesa Central of Mexico a biogeographical province? Descriptive analysis based on freshwater biotic components ¿La mesa central de México es una provincia biogeográfica? Análisis descriptivo basado en componentes bióticos dulceacuícolas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Omar Domínguez-Domínguez

2009-12-01

Full Text Available This essay presents an analysis of the concept of Mesa Central of México as a potential biogeographical province. This region of México has been used as a reference for describing species richness and distribution patterns of the freshwater fish fauna. However, it has not been recognized as a biogeographical province in the available schemes which are mostly based on the composition of terrestrial biota. Here, we provide a historical sketch of the way the concept of Mesa Central arose in the literature as a physiographic province, and we provide a comparison with respect to the regionalization schemes of the Mexican territory, which are based on attributes such physiography, elevation, hydrology, geology and biogeography. We conclude that the Mesa Central, even though it represents a practical concept for establishing the distribution pattern of the fish fauna, in the way it was described originally cannot be circumscribed to any of the regions or provinces in which Mexico has been divided. We also argue that this geographical region cannot be considered as a synonym of the Transmexican Volcanic Axis biogeographical province, and also that it is possible that the fact that this area is not circumscribed to any regionalization scheme is due to the fact that freshwater elements have not been considered in the establishment of such biogeographical regions. We end by pointing out the need for a biogeographical analysis that integrates most of the freshwater elements in order to determine whether both the aquatic and terrestrial flora and fauna are driven by the same geobiotic processes.En este ensayo se presenta un análisis del concepto de Mesa Central de México como una posible provincia biogeográfica. Esta región del país ha sido utilizada como referencia para describir la riqueza y distribución de una parte importante de la fauna ictiológica dulceacuícola, sin embargo, no es reconocida como provincia biogeográfica en ninguno de los

Women's self-efficacy perceptions in mathematics and science: Investigating USC-MESA students

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Rebecca Cheng-Shun

This study is an investigation into female high school seniors in the USC-MESA program and how the role of self-efficacy perceptions in mathematics and science relates to their college major choice. Bandura's theory on self-efficacy provides the backdrop for this study. This study is qualitative and takes an ethnographic approach incorporating 23 interviews, 2 focus groups, 49.5 hours of observation, and document analysis. Results show that female high school seniors participating in the USC-MESA program demonstrate a strong self-efficacy perception in mathematics and science through their academic choices and pursuits in high school and beyond. This finding confirms a linear approach in understanding how courses taken in high school contribute to the trajectory of college academic choices. It also challenges the theory of self-efficacy in math and science to examine historically underrepresented populations in the field and the external factors that play a key role in their persistence to pursue STEM fields in college and beyond.

Advances in Understanding Air Pollution and Cardiovascular Diseases: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air)

Science.gov (United States)

Kaufman, Joel D.; Spalt, Elizabeth W.; Curl, Cynthia L.; Hajat, Anjum; Jones, Miranda R.; Kim, Sun-Young; Vedal, Sverre; Szpiro, Adam A.; Gassett, Amanda; Sheppard, Lianne; Daviglus, Martha L.; Adar, Sara D.

2016-01-01

The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) leveraged the platform of the MESA cohort into a prospective longitudinal study of relationships between air pollution and cardiovascular health. MESA Air researchers developed fine-scale, state-of-the-art air pollution exposure models for the MESA Air communities, creating individual exposure estimates for each participant. These models combine cohort-specific exposure monitoring, existing monitoring systems, and an extensive database of geographic and meteorological information. Together with extensive phenotyping in MESA—and adding participants and health measurements to the cohort—MESA Air investigated environmental exposures on a wide range of outcomes. Advances by the MESA Air team included not only a new approach to exposure modeling but also biostatistical advances in addressing exposure measurement error and temporal confounding. The MESA Air study advanced our understanding of the impact of air pollutants on cardiovascular disease and provided a research platform for advances in environmental epidemiology. PMID:27741981

Preliminary hydrogeological evaluation of geological units from the Mesa de los Santos, Santander

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Diaz, Eliana Jimena; Contreras, Nathalia Maria; Pinto, Jorge Eduardo; Velandia, Francisco; Morales, Carlos Julio; Hincapie, Gloria

2009-01-01

This paper present a preliminary hydrogeological evaluation of La Mesa de Los Santos' lithostratigraphic formations, based on the geological mapping, stratigraphy and inventory of water points. All this is supplemented with the analysis of primary porosity by means of the petrographic study and the secondary porosity related statistically with the quantity of fractures of each formation, as well as opening, interconnection and dip. It is made an approach to hydrogeological potential of the geologic outcropping formations in La Mesa de Los Santos, Department of Santander, from the stratigraphic and petrographic analysis and the structural features of these formations. The Upper Member of Los Santos Formation presents the highest potential because of rock's fracturing, continued by the Lower Member with low primary porosity and half fracturing. Silgara Formation, Granito de Pescadero, Jordan Formation and some sections of the sandy levels of the Rosablanca Formation presents a lowest potential due to its low porosity and low grade of fracturing. Low permeability is presented in the Middle Member of the Los Santos Formation, Paja and Tablazo formations, as well as in sectors of the fore mentioned formations and in the Quaternary deposits.

Mesa Verde--A Year-Round High School. A Descriptive Report of 1980-81.

Science.gov (United States)

Housden, Terry; Holmes, Lynda

Mesa Verde High School was constructed in 1974 and is the last high school built in the San Juan (California) Unified District. It serves students in grades 9 through 12 and has an open enrollment policy. Mesa Verde operates on a year-round schedule with students divided into three tracks. Basically, each track is in session for 9 weeks and then…

Surficial Geologic Map of Mesa Verde National Park, Montezuma County, Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Carrara, Paul E.

2012-01-01

Mesa Verde National Park in southwestern Colorado was established in 1906 to preserve and protect the artifacts and dwelling sites, including the famous cliff dwellings, of the Ancestral Puebloan people who lived in the area from about A.D. 550 to A.D. 1300. In 1978, the United Nations designated the park as a World Heritage Site. The geology of the park played a key role in the lives of these ancient people. For example, the numerous (approximately 600) cliff dwellings are closely associated with the Cliff House Sandstone of Late Cretaceous age, which weathers to form deep alcoves. In addition, the ancient people farmed the thick, red loess (wind-blown dust) deposits on the mesa tops, which because of its particle size distribution has good moisture retention properties. The soil in this loess cover and the seasonal rains allowed these people to grow their crops (corn, beans, and squash) on the broad mesa tops. Today, geology is still an important concern in the Mesa Verde area because the landscape is susceptible to various forms of mass movement (landslides, debris flows, rockfalls), swelling soils, and flash floods that affect the park's archeological sites and its infrastructure (roads, septic systems, utilities, and building sites). The map, which encompasses an area of about 100 mi2 (260 km2), includes all of Mesa Verde National Park, a small part of the Ute Mountain Indian Reservation that borders the park on its southern and western sides, and some Bureau of Land Management and privately owned land to the north and east. Surficial deposits depicted on the map include: artificial fills, alluvium of small ephemeral streams, alluvium deposited by the Mancos River, residual gravel on high mesas, a combination of alluvial and colluvial deposits, fan deposits, colluvial deposits derived from the Menefee Formation, colluvial deposits derived from the Mancos Shale, rockfall deposits, debris flow deposits, earthflow deposits, translational and rotational landslide

Sestava pečenega piščančjega mesa različnih rej

OpenAIRE

Korenčan, Nina

2017-01-01

Namen diplomskega dela je bil ugotoviti, kako način reje piščancev (intenzivna (kontrola), ekološka reja (Eko) in z dodanim selenom, vezanim na organske spojine (Se)) vpliva na različne kakovostne parametre presnega mesa in mesa po pečenju, in sicer na masno razmerje meso, kosti in koža, na osnovno kemijsko sestavo, na izgubo mase med pečenjem ter na instrumentalne parametre in senzorične lastnosti kosov (prsi in bedra) piščančjega mesa. V poskusu smo analizirali devet trupov piščancev brez d...

Mesas de dinero: generalidades y experiencia en Colombia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johnny Alvarez Jaramillo

1989-04-01

Full Text Available RESUMEN   Las necesidades de financiamiento de corto plazo, ha determinado el aguzamiento  de la imaginación para garantizar los recursos. Generalmente, las prácticas financieras en Colombia se extienden sin ningún control institucional; hasta que desafortunadamente, las prácticas desleales  o fraudulentas, llevan al estado a intervenir y reglamentar. Las llamadas MESAS DE DINERO, se han generalizado en nuestro medio en la medida en que proveen recursos financieros de corto plazo, difíciles de conseguir por los canales tradicionales. Los recientes escándalos del sector bursátil y anteriormente, la crisis bancaria, desaceleraron el crecimiento del mercado financiero extrainstitucional, pero no lo han acabado  del todo.El presente artículo, pretende informar brevemente sobre las experiencias de las llamadas  MESAS DE DINERO, su práctica y desarrollo.

Live birth rates after MESA or TESE in men with obstructive azoospermia: is there a difference?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Wely, Madelon; Barbey, Natalie; Meissner, Andreas; Repping, Sjoerd; Silber, Sherman J.

2015-01-01

How do live birth rates compare after intracytoplasmic sperm injection (ICSI) for men with obstructive azoospermia when using sperm derived from testicular sperm extraction (TESE) versus microsurgical epididymal sperm aspiration (MESA)? Our study suggests that proximal epididymal sperm (from MESA)

Analysis of tracer responses in the BULLION Forced-Gradient Experiment at Pahute Mesa, Nevada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Paul W. Reimus; Marc J. Haga

1999-10-01

This report presents an analysis of the tracer data from the BULLION forced-gradient experiment (FGE) conducted on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site from June 2, 1997 through August 28, 1997, for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Program. It also serves to document the polystyrene microsphere data from the FGE. The FGE involved the injection of solute and colloid tracers into wells ER-20-6 No. 1 and ER-20-6 No. 2 while ER-20-6 No. 3 was pumped at approximately 116 gallons per minute (gpm). The experimental configuration and test design are described briefly in this report; more details are provided elsewhere (IT, 1996, 1997, 1998). The tracer responses in the various wells yielded valuable information about transport processes such as longitudinal dispersion, matrix diffusion and colloid transport in the hydrogeologic system in the vicinity of the BULLION nuclear test cavity. Parameter values describing these processes are derived from the semi-analytical model interpretations presented in this report. A companion report (IT, 1998) presents more detailed numerical modeling interpretations of the solute tracer responses.

Analysis of tracer responses in the BULLION Forced-Gradient Experiment at Pahute Mesa, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Reimus, Paul W.; Haga, Marc J.

1999-01-01

This report presents an analysis of the tracer data from the BULLION forced-gradient experiment (FGE) conducted on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site from June 2, 1997 through August 28, 1997, for the Underground Test Area (UGTA) Program. It also serves to document the polystyrene microsphere data from the FGE. The FGE involved the injection of solute and colloid tracers into wells ER-20-6 No. 1 and ER-20-6 No. 2 while ER-20-6 No. 3 was pumped at approximately 116 gallons per minute (gpm). The experimental configuration and test design are described briefly in this report; more details are provided elsewhere (IT, 1996, 1997, 1998). The tracer responses in the various wells yielded valuable information about transport processes such as longitudinal dispersion, matrix diffusion and colloid transport in the hydrogeologic system in the vicinity of the BULLION nuclear test cavity. Parameter values describing these processes are derived from the semi-analytical model interpretations presented in this report. A companion report (IT, 1998) presents more detailed numerical modeling interpretations of the solute tracer responses

76 FR 22075 - Divide Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-20

... Ranger District, Rio Grande National Forest; CO; Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project AGENCY: Forest... Web site http://www.fs.usda.gov/riogrande under ``Land & Resource Management'', then ``Projects'' on... need for the Black Mesa Vegetation Management Project is move toward achieving long-term desired...

Surface motion induced by nuclear explosions beneath Pahute Mesa. Part I. Halfbreak, Greeley, Scotch, Boxcar events

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Perret, W.R.

1976-10-01

Results of surface motion studies conducted by Sandia Laboratories during seven underground nuclear explosions detonated beneath Pahute Mesa, Areas 19 and 20 of the Nevada Test Site, between 1966 and 1973 are reported. The report is divided into two parts of which this, Part I, includes (1) descriptions of the Pahute Mesa geological environment and of the purposes and instrumentation used in these programs (Chapter 1), and (2) description of four events, the data derived from each, and analysis of these data. These Part I events are HALFBEAK (Chapter 2), GREELEY (Chapter 3), SCOTCH (Chapter 4), and BOXCAR (Chapter 5) for all of which a nominally radial array of gage stations yielded data as a function of distance primarily, although in a few cases data were derived from stations at widely separated azimuths from the explosion. Results of the analysis indicate that average propagation velocity through the geologic column between the explosions and mesa surface was about 8800 ft/sec and that for horizontal distances greater than shot depth, refraction occurred within rhyolite flows with characteristic velocity of about 12,300 ft/sec. There is evidence which suggests possible deeper refraction at a velocity between 18,000 and 21,000 ft/sec. Only the verticle motion peaks follow a pattern amenable to regression analysis because geometrical effects influence horizontal motion amplitudes differently as horizontal distances increase. Particle velocities vary roughly as the inverse square of slant or radial range with exponent values ranging from -3.9 to -1.3. Displacements follow a similar pattern with exponents ranging from about -6 to -2. Displacement profiles at various times during the motion and displacement hodographs in the vertical-radial plane aid in understanding several local phenomena implied by individual motion records

TYBO/BENHAM: Model Analysis of Groundwater Flow and Radionuclide Migration from Underground Nuclear Tests in Southwestern Pahute Mesa, Nevada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Andrew Wolfsberg; Lee Glascoe; Guoping Lu; Alyssa Olson; Peter Lichtner; Maureen McGraw; Terry Cherry; Guy Roemer

2002-09-01

Recent field studies have led to the discovery of trace quantities of plutonium originating from the BENHAM underground nuclear test in two groundwater observation wells on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site. These observation wells are located 1.3 km from the BENHAM underground nuclear test and approximately 300 m from the TYBO underground nuclear test. In addition to plutonium, several other conservative (e.g. tritium) and reactive (e.g. cesium) radionuclides were found in both observation wells. The highest radionuclide concentrations were found in a well sampling a welded tuff aquifer more than 500m above the BENHAM emplacement depth. These measurements have prompted additional investigations to ascertain the mechanisms, processes, and conditions affecting subsurface radionuclide transport in Pahute Mesa groundwater. This report describes an integrated modeling approach used to simulate groundwater flow, radionuclide source release, and radionuclide transport near the BENHAM and TYBO underground nuclear tests on Pahute Mesa. The components of the model include a flow model at a scale large enough to encompass many wells for calibration, a source-term model capable of predicting radionuclide releases to aquifers following complex processes associated with nonisothermal flow and glass dissolution, and site-scale transport models that consider migration of solutes and colloids in fractured volcanic rock. Although multiple modeling components contribute to the methodology presented in this report, they are coupled and yield results consistent with laboratory and field observations. Additionally, sensitivity analyses are conducted to provide insight into the relative importance of uncertainty ranges in the transport parameters.

Analysis of metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid (MESA) chirality in groundwater: A tool for dating groundwater movement in agricultural settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Rice, Clifford P; McCarty, Gregory W; Bialek-Kalinski, Krystyna; Zabetakis, Kara; Torrents, Alba; Hapeman, Cathleen J

2016-08-01

To better address how much groundwater contributes to the loadings of pollutants from agriculture we developed a specific dating tool for groundwater residence times. This tool is based on metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid, which is a major soil metabolite of metolachlor. The chiral forms of metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid (MESA) and the chiral forms of metolachlor were examined over a 6-year period in samples of groundwater and water from a groundwater-fed stream in a riparian buffer zone. This buffer zone bordered cropland receiving annual treatments with metolachlor. Racemic (rac) metolachlor was applied for two years in the neighboring field, and subsequently S-metolachlor was used which is enriched by 88% with the S-enantiomer. Chiral analyses of the samples showed an exponential increase in abundance of the S-enantiomeric forms for MESA as a function of time for both the first order riparian buffer stream (R(2)=0.80) and for groundwater within the riparian buffer (R(2)=0.96). However, the S-enrichment values for metolachlor were consistently high indicating different delivery mechanisms for MESA and metolachlor. A mean residence time of 3.8years was determined for depletion of the initially-applied rac-metolachlor. This approach could be useful in dating groundwater and determining the effectiveness of conservation measures. A mean residence time of 3.8years was calculated for groundwater feeding a first-order stream by plotting the timed-decay for the R-enantiomer of metolachlor ethane sulfonic acid. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Hydrologic Source Term Processes and Models for the Clearwater and Wineskin Tests, Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carle, Steven F. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

2011-05-04

This report describes the development, processes, and results of a hydrologic source term (HST) model for the CLEARWATER (U12q) and WINESKIN (U12r) tests located on Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada (Figure 1.1). Of the 61 underground tests (involving 62 unique detonations) conducted on Rainier Mesa (Area 12) between 1957 and 1992 (USDOE, 2015), the CLEARWATER and WINESKIN tests present many unique features that warrant a separate HST modeling effort from other Rainier Mesa tests.

Corrective Action Investigation Plan for Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nevada with Errata and ROTC 1, Rev. No. 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCord, John; Marutzky, Sam

2004-12-01

volcanic rocks that erupted from the caldera as well as from more distant sources. This has resulted in a layered volcanic stratigraphy composed of thick deposits of welded and nonwelded ash-flow tuff and lava flows. These deposits are proximal to the source caldera and are interstratified with the more distal facies of fallout tephra and bedded reworked tuff from more distant sources. In each area, a similar volcanic sequence was deposited upon Paleozoic carbonate and siliciclastic rocks that are disrupted by various thrust faults, normal faults, and strike-slip faults. In both Rainier Mesa (km) to the southwest, and Tippipah Spring, 4 km to the north, and the tunnel complex is dry. Particle-tracking simulations performed during the value of information analysis (VOIA) (SNJV, 2004b) indicate that most of the regional groundwater that underlies the test locations at Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain eventually follows similar and parallel paths and ultimately discharges in Death Valley and the Amargosa Desert. Particle-tracking simulations conducted for the regional groundwater flow and risk assessment indicated that contamination from Rainier Mesa and Shoshone Mountain were unlikely to leave the NTS during the 1,000-year period of interest (DOE/NV, 1997a). It is anticipated that CAU-scale modeling will modify these results somewhat, but it is not expected to radically alter the outcome of these previous particle-tracking simulations within the 1,000-year period of interest. The Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAIP describes the corrective action investigation (CAI) to be conducted at the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain CAU to evaluate the extent of contamination in groundwater due to the underground nuclear testing. The CAI will be conducted by the UGTA Project, which is part of the NNSA/NSO Environmental Restoration Project (ERP). The purpose and scope of the CAI are presented in this section, followed by a summary of the entire document.

Effect of methyl salicylate (MeSA), an elicitor on growth, physiology and pathology of resistant and susceptible rice varieties.

Science.gov (United States)

Kalaivani, Kandaswamy; Kalaiselvi, Marimuthu Maruthi; Senthil-Nathan, Sengottayan

2016-10-11

Methyl salicylate (MeSA) is a volatile organic compound synthesized from salicylic acid (SA) a plant hormone that helps to fight against plant disease. Seed treatment with MeSA, is an encouraging method to the seed industry to produce more growth and yield. The aim of our study is to find out the growth, development and disease tolerance of rice seed treated with different concentrations of MeSA. Also the seed treatments were studied to determine whether they directly influenced seedling emergence and growth in rice (Oryza sativa L) cultivars 'IR 20, IR 50, IR 64, ASD 16, ASD 19 and ADT 46' under greenhouse condition. MeSA seed treatments at 25, 50, 75 and 100 mg/L significantly increased seedling emergence. Effects were stronger in IR 50, and IR 64 and the effects were dose dependent, although the relationship between dose and effect was not always linear. MeSA seed treated rice plant against bacterial blight were analyzed. Bacterial blight was more effectively controlled by the seed treated with 100 mg/L than others. These results suggest that seed treatment with MeSA alters plant physiology in ways that may be useful for crop production as well as protection.

Molecular-beam epitaxy on shallow mesa gratings patterned on GaAs(311)A and (100) substrates

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gong, Q.; Nötzel, R.; Schönherr, H.-P.; Ploog, K.H.

2002-01-01

We report on the morphology and properties of the surface formed by molecular-beam epitaxy on shallow mesa gratings on patterned GaAs(311)A and GaAs(100). On GaAs(311)A substrates, the corrugated surface formed after GaAs growth on shallow mesa gratings along [011] is composed of monolayer high

Characterization of Mesa Verde Black-on-white ceramics from southwestern Colorado using NAA

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Glowacki, D M; Neff, H; Glascock, M D [Missouri Univ., Columbia, MO (United States). Research Reactor Facility

1995-10-01

Sixty Mesa Verde variety Black-on-white bowls from Castle Rock Pueblo (5MT 1825) and Sand Canyon Pueblo (5MT765) in southwestern Colorado were chemically characterized using neutron activation analysis. Eleven clay sources local to the sites in the McElmo Drainage area were also analyzed. The results revealed two distinct compositional groups containing relative frequencies that imply local production. The occurrence of trade between the two sites was also identified. (author). 20 refs., 5 figs., 2 tabs.

Summary of micrographic analysis of fracture coating phases on drill cores from Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site. Revision 1

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1998-12-01

The flow path between Pahute Mesa and the groundwater discharge area in Oasis Valley (approximately 18 miles to the southwest) is of concern due to the relatively short travel distance between a recharge area where underground nuclear testing has been conducted and the off-site water users. Groundwater flow and transport modeling by IT Corporation (IT) has shown rapid tritium transport in the volcanic rock aquifers along this flow path. The resultant estimates of rapid transport were based on water level data, limited hydraulic conductivity data, estimates of groundwater discharge rates in Oasis Valley, assumed porosities, and estimated retardation rates. Many of these parameters are poorly constrained and may vary considerably. Sampling and analytical techniques are being applied as an independent means to determine transport rates by providing an understanding of the geochemical processes that control solute movement along the flow path. As part of these geochemical investigations, this report summarizes the analysis of fracture coating mineral phases from drill core samples from the Pahute mesa area of the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Archived samples were collected based on the presence of natural fractures and on the types and abundance of secondary mineral phases present on those fracture surfaces. Mineral phases present along fracture surfaces are significant because, through the process of water-rock interaction, they can either contribute (as a result of dissolution) or remove (as a result of precipitation or adsorption) constituents from solution. Particular attention was paid to secondary calcite occurrences because they represent a potential source of exchangeable carbon and can interact with groundwater resulting in a modified isotopic signature and apparent water age

Archaeological investigations on the Buckboard Mesa Road Project

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amick, D.S.; Henton, G.H.; Pippin, L.C.

1991-10-01

In 1986, the Desert Research Institute (DRI) conducted an archaeological reconnaissance of a new alignment for the Buckboard Mesa Road on the Nevada Test Site for the Department of Energy (DOE). During this reconnaissance, several archaeological sites of National Register quality were discovered and recorded including a large quarry, site 26Ny4892, and a smaller lithic scatter, site 26Ny4894. Analysis of the debitage at 26Ny4892 indicates that this area was used primarily as a quarry for relatively small cobbles of obsidian found in the alluvium. Lithic reduction techniques used here are designed for efficiently reducing small pieces of toolstone and are oriented towards producing flake blanks from small cores and bifacially reducing exhausted cores. Projectile point cross references indicate that the area has seen at least casual use for about 10,000 years and more sustained use for the last 3,000 years. Initial obsidian hydration measurements indicate sustained use of the quarry for about the last 3,000 years although the loci of activities appear to change over time. Based on this study, the DRI recommends that quarrying activities in the area of 26Ny4892 are sufficiently sampled and that additional investigations into that aspect of prehistoric activity in the area are not necessary. This does not apply to other aspects of prehistoric use. DRI recommends that preconstruction surveys continue to identify nonquarrying, prehistoric utilization of the area. With the increased traffic on the Buckboard Mesa Road, there is a greater potential for vandalism to sites of National Register-quality located near the road. The DRI recommends that during the orientation briefing the workers at the Test Site be educated about the importance of cultural resources and the need for their protection. 202 refs., 41 figs., 52 tabs.

Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona: 2011-2012

Science.gov (United States)

Macy, Jamie P.; Unema, Joel A.

2014-01-01

the confined and unconfined areas was -13.4 feet; the median water-level changes were -2.1 feet for 16 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -39.1 feet for 18 wells measured in the confined area. Spring flow was measured at four springs in 2012. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro and Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, but a decreasing trend was apparent at Moenkopi School Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s and discharge at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso has fluctuated for the period of record. Trend analysis for discharge at Moenkopi and Pasture Canyon Springs yielded a slope significantly different from zero. Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976 to 2010), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993 to 2010), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994 to 2010), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004 to 2010). Median winter flows (November through February) of each water year were used as an index of the amount of groundwater discharge at the above-named sites. For the period of record of each streamflow-gaging station, the median winter flows have generally remained constant, and there are no significant statistical trends in groundwater discharge. In 2012, water samples collected from 10 wells and 4 springs in the Black Mesa area were analyzed for selected chemical constituents, and the results were compared with previous analyses. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate have varied at all 10 wells for the period of record, but neither increasing nor decreasing trends over time were found. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 12 years of record at that site. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and

Evolving R Coronae Borealis Stars with MESA

Science.gov (United States)

Clayton, Geoffrey C.; Lauer, Amber; Chatzopoulos, Emmanouil; Frank, Juhan

2018-01-01

R Coronae Borealis (RCB) stars form a small class of cool, carbon-rich supergiants that have almost no hydrogen. They undergo extreme, irregular declines in brightness of up to 8 magnitudes due to the formation of thick clouds of carbon dust. Two scenarios have been proposed for the origin of an RCB star: the merger of a CO/He white dwarf (WD) binary and a final helium-shell flash. We are using a combination of 3D hydrodynamics codes and the 1D MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) stellar evolution code including nucleosynthesis to construct post-merger spherical models based on realistic merger progenitor models and on our hydrodynamical simulations, and then following the evolution into the region of the HR diagram where RCB stars are located. We are investigating nucleosynthesis in the dynamically accreting material of CO/He WD mergers which may provide a suitable environment for significant production of 18O and the very low 16O/18O values observed.Our MESA modeling consists of two steps: first mimicking the WD merger event using two different techniques, (a) by choosing a very high mass accretion rate with appropriate abundances and (b) by applying "stellar engineering" to an initial CO WD model to account for the newly merged material by applying an entropy adjusting procedure. Second, we follow the post-merger evolution using a large nuclear reaction network including the effects of convective and rotational instabilities to the mixing of material in order to match the observed RCB abundances. MESA follows the evolution of the merger product as it expands and cools to become an RCB star. We then examine the surface abundances and compare them to the observed RCB abundances. We also investigate how long fusion continues in the He shell near the core and how this processed material is mixed up to the surface of the star. We then model the later evolution of RCB stars to determine their likely lifetimes and endpoints when they have returned to

Completion Report for Well ER-20-4 Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NSTec Environmental Management

2011-04-30

Well ER-20-4 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Nevada Environmental Restoration Project at the Nevada National Security Site, Nye County, Nevada. The well was drilled in August and September 2010 as part of the Pahute Mesa Phase II drilling program. The primary purpose of the well was to investigate the possibility of radionuclide transport from up-gradient underground nuclear tests conducted in central Pahute Mesa. This well also provided detailed hydrogeologic information in the Tertiary volcanic section that will help reduce uncertainties within the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley hydrostratigraphic framework model.

Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona—2012–2013

Science.gov (United States)

Macy, Jamie P.; Truini, Margot

2016-03-02

-level change for 34 wells in both the confined and unconfined areas was -13.5 feet; the median water-level changes were -0.8 feet for 16 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -51.0 feet for 16 wells measured in the confined area.Spring flow was measured at four springs in 2013; Burro, Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso, Moenkopi School, and Pasture Canyon Springs. Flow fluctuated during the period of record for Burro and Unnamed Springs near Dennehotso, but a decreasing trend was apparent at Moenkopi School Spring and Pasture Canyon Spring. Discharge at Burro Spring has remained relatively constant since it was first measured in the 1980s and discharge at Unnamed Spring near Dennehotso has fluctuated for the period of record at each spring. Trend analysis for discharge at Moenkopi School and Pasture Canyon Springs showed a decreasing trend.Continuous records of surface-water discharge in the Black Mesa area were collected from streamflow-gaging stations at the following sites: Moenkopi Wash at Moenkopi 09401260 (1976 to 2013), Dinnebito Wash near Sand Springs 09401110 (1993 to 2013), Polacca Wash near Second Mesa 09400568 (1994 to 2013), and Pasture Canyon Springs 09401265 (2004 to 2013). Median winter flows (November through February) from these sites for each water year were used as an index of the amount of groundwater discharge. For the period of record of each streamflow-gaging station, the median winter flows have generally remained constant, which suggests no change in groundwater discharge.In 2013, water samples collected from 12 wells and 4 springs in the Black Mesa area were analyzed for selected chemical constituents, and the results were compared with previous analyses. Concentrations of dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate have varied at all 12 wells for the period of record, but neither increasing nor decreasing trends over time were found. Dissolved solids, chloride, and sulfate concentrations increased at Moenkopi School Spring during the more than 13 years

Geophysical Investigations at Pahute Mesa, Nevada.

Science.gov (United States)

1987-08-12

be azimuth dependent (Lynnes and Lay, 1984). The body wave magnitude anomalies observed by Alewine are plotted in Figure 1 along with the Bouguer ...of this type can be used to test the seismic Figure 1. The body wave magnitude anomaly is plotted on a map of the Bouguer gravity for Pahute Mesa...Nevada. 370 22’ 30" 370 7’ 300 116 30’ 1160 15’ 0 KILOMTERS 10 BOUGUER GRAVITY 2 mgal CONTOURS AMb o 0.2O 0.1- 0.2 0 0.0- 0.1 -0.1 - 0.0 X -0.2 - -0.1X

Origin of elevated water levels encountered in Pahute Mesa emplacement boreholes: Preliminary investigations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brikowski, T.; Chapman, J.; Lyles, B.; Hokett, S.

1993-11-01

The presence of standing water well above the predicted water table in emplacement boreholes on Pahute Mesa has been a recurring phenomenon at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). If these levels represent naturally perched aquifers, they may indicate a radionuclide migration hazard. In any case, they can pose engineering problems in the performance of underground nuclear tests. The origin of these elevated waters is uncertain. Large volumes of water are introduced during emplacement drilling, providing ample source for artificially perched water, yet elevated water levels can remain constant for years, suggesting a natural origin instead. In an effort to address the issue of unexpected standing water in emplacement boreholes, three different sites were investigated in Area 19 on Pahute Mesa by Desert Research Institute (DRI) staff from 1990-93. These sites were U-19az, U-19ba, and U-19bh. As of this writing, U-19bh remains available for access; however, nuclear tests were conducted at the former two locations subsequent to this investigations. The experiments are discussed in chronological order. Taken together, the experiments indicate that standing water in Pahute Mesa emplacement holes originates from the drainage of small-volume naturally perched zones. In the final study, the fluids used during drilling of the bottom 100 m of emplacement borehole U-19bh were labeled with a chemical tracer. After hole completion, water level rose in the borehole, while tracer concentration decreased. In fact, total mass of tracer in the borehole remained constant, while water levels rose. After water levels stabilized in this hole, no change in tracer mass was observed over two years, indicating that no movement of water out of the borehole is taking place (as at U- 19ba). Continued labeling tests of standing water are recommended to confirm the conclusions made here, and to establish their validity throughout Pahute Mesa

NPDES Permit for Mesa Verde National Park Water Treatment Plant in Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Under NPDES permit number CO-0034462, the United States Department of the Interior, National Park Service is authorized to discharge from the Mesa Verde National Park water treatment plant, in Montezuma County, Colo.

An analysis of medical decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lusted, L.B.

1977-01-01

Medical decision-making studies continue to focus on two questions: How do physicians make decisions and how should physicians make decisions. Researchers pursuing the first question emphasize human cognitive processes and the programming of symbol systems to model the observed human behaviour. Those researchers concentrating on the second question assume that there is a standard of performance against which physicians' decisions can be judged, and to help the physician improve his performance an array of tools is proposed. These tools include decision trees, Bayesian analysis, decision matrices, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis, and cost-benefit considerations including utility measures. Both questions must be answered in an ethical context where ethics and decision analysis are intertwined. (author)

Time-location patterns of a diverse population of older adults: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air).

Science.gov (United States)

Spalt, Elizabeth W; Curl, Cynthia L; Allen, Ryan W; Cohen, Martin; Adar, Sara D; Stukovsky, Karen H; Avol, Ed; Castro-Diehl, Cecilia; Nunn, Cathy; Mancera-Cuevas, Karen; Kaufman, Joel D

2016-06-01

The primary aim of this analysis was to present and describe questionnaire data characterizing time-location patterns of an older, multiethnic population from six American cities. We evaluated the consistency of results from repeated administration of this questionnaire and between this questionnaire and other questionnaires collected from participants of the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air). Participants reported spending most of their time inside their homes (average: 121 h/week or 72%). More than 50% of the participants reported spending no time in several of the location options, including at home outdoors, at work/volunteer/school locations indoors or outdoors, or in "other" locations outdoors. We observed consistency between self-reported time-location patterns from repeated administration of the time-location questionnaire and compared with other survey instruments. Comparisons with national cohorts demonstrated the differences in time-location patterns in the MESA Air cohort due to differences in demographics, but the data showed similar trends in patterns by age, gender, season, and employment status. This study was the first to explicitly examine the time-location patterns in an older, multiethnic population and the first to add data on Chinese participants. These data can be used to inform future epidemiological research of MESA Air and other studies that include diverse populations.

Lone ranger decision making versus consensus decision making: Descriptive analysis

OpenAIRE

Maite Sara Mashego

2015-01-01

Consensus decision making, concerns group members make decisions together with the requirement of reaching a consensus that is all members abiding by the decision outcome. Lone ranging worked for sometime in a autocratic environment. Researchers are now pointing to consensus decision-making in organizations bringing dividend to many organizations. This article used a descriptive analysis to compare the goodness of consensus decision making and making lone ranging decision management. This art...

Mesa-height Dependent Quantum Efficiency Characteristics of InGaN Micro-LEDs

KAUST Repository

Shen, Chao; Kang, Chun Hong; Ng, Tien Khee; Ooi, Boon S.

2013-01-01

The mechanisms of mesa-height dependent efficiency and efficiency droop of blue InGaN/GaN micro-LED is presented. Device with a large etch-depth (> 1.3 µm) shows significant strain relief with aggravated current crowding.

Three-dimensional DFN Model Development and Calibration: A Case Study for Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

Science.gov (United States)

Pham, H. V.; Parashar, R.; Sund, N. L.; Pohlmann, K.

2017-12-01

Pahute Mesa, located in the north-western region of the Nevada National Security Site, is an area where numerous underground nuclear tests were conducted. The mesa contains several fractured aquifers that can potentially provide high permeability pathways for migration of radionuclides away from testing locations. The BULLION Forced-Gradient Experiment (FGE) conducted on Pahute Mesa injected and pumped solute and colloid tracers from a system of three wells for obtaining site-specific information about the transport of radionuclides in fractured rock aquifers. This study aims to develop reliable three-dimensional discrete fracture network (DFN) models to simulate the BULLION FGE as a means for computing realistic ranges of important parameters describing fractured rock. Multiple conceptual DFN models were developed using dfnWorks, a parallelized computational suite developed by Los Alamos National Laboratory, to simulate flow and conservative particle movement in subsurface fractured rocks downgradient from the BULLION test. The model domain is 100x200x100 m and includes the three tracer-test wells of the BULLION FGE and the Pahute Mesa Lava-flow aquifer. The model scenarios considered differ from each other in terms of boundary conditions and fracture density. For each conceptual model, a number of statistically equivalent fracture network realizations were generated using data from fracture characterization studies. We adopt the covariance matrix adaptation-evolution strategy (CMA-ES) as a global local stochastic derivative-free optimization method to calibrate the DFN models using groundwater levels and tracer breakthrough data obtained from the three wells. Models of fracture apertures based on fracture type and size are proposed and the values of apertures in each model are estimated during model calibration. The ranges of fracture aperture values resulting from this study are expected to enhance understanding of radionuclide transport in fractured rocks and

Some selected research item of the micro mechanics department at MESA

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elwenspoek, Michael Curt

1994-01-01

New developments within the micro mechanics department at MESA are presented. The developments are: (1) a description will be provided of dry etch processes-reactive ion etching, RIE-of silicon in a mixture of SF6, 02, and CHF3. (2) The design, fabrication and performance of new electrostatic

Environmental Decision Analysis: Meeting the Challenges of Making Good Decisions at CALFED

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Claire D Tomkins

2006-09-01

Full Text Available We present a methodology to support decision making at CALFED based on the principles of decision analysis, an analytical approach to decision making designed to handle complex decisions involving both uncertainty and multiple dimensions of value. The impetus for such an approach is a recognized need to enhance communication between scientists and management and between program elements within CALFED. In addition, the environmental decision analysis framework supports both the explicit representation of uncertainty in the decision problem and communication about risk, important elements of most environmental management decisions. The decision analysis cycle consists of four phases: 1 formulate, 2 evaluate, 3 appraise, and 4 decide. In phase one, we identify the objectives and also the alternatives, or possible actions. To facilitate inter-comparison between proposed actions, we recommend formulation of a set of common metrics for CALFED. In our pilot study, we introduced common metrics for salinity, winter-run Chinook salmon survival, and habitat health. The second phase focuses on quantifying possible impacts on the set of metrics, drawing on existing data, model runs, and expert opinions. For the evaluation phase, we employ tools such as decision trees to assess the system-wide impacts of a given action. In the final phase, tools such as expected cost-benefit analysis, value contribution diagrams, and 3-D tradeoff plots aid communication between various stakeholders, scientists, and managers. While decision analysis provides a spectrum of decision support tools, we emphasize that it does not dictate a solution but rather enhances communication about tradeoffs associated with different actions.

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science.

Science.gov (United States)

Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina M; Blake, Ann; Carroll, William F; Corbett, Charles J; Hansen, Steffen Foss; Lempert, Robert J; Linkov, Igor; McFadden, Roger; Moran, Kelly D; Olivetti, Elsa; Ostrom, Nancy K; Romero, Michelle; Schoenung, Julie M; Seager, Thomas P; Sinsheimer, Peter; Thayer, Kristina A

2017-06-13

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate the safety and viability of potential substitutes for hazardous chemicals. We assessed whether decision science may assist the alternatives analysis decision maker in comparing alternatives across a range of metrics. A workshop was convened that included representatives from government, academia, business, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and were prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect on other groups' findings. We concluded that the further incorporation of decision science into alternatives analysis would advance the ability of companies and regulators to select alternatives to harmful ingredients and would also advance the science of decision analysis. We advance four recommendations: a ) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; b ) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; c ) supporting transdisciplinary research; and d ) supporting education and outreach efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP483.

1.5-μm and 10-Gb s−1 etched mesa buried heterostructure DFB-LD for datacenter networks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kwon, Oh Kee; Lee, Chul Wook; Leem, Young Ahn; Kim, Ki Soo; Oh, Su Hwan; Nam, Eun Soo

2015-01-01

We report a 1.5 μm and 10 Gb s −1 etched mesa buried heterostructure λ/4-shifted distributed feedback laser diode (DFB-LD) for the low-cost application of WDM–based datacenter networks. To reduce the threshold current and improve the modulation bandwidth in a conventional p-/n-/p-InP current blocking structure, a thin undoped-InP (u-InP) layer was inserted between the side walls of the active region and the p-InP layer (i.e., a u-/p-/n-/p-InP structure), and the region containing the active region and the current blocking structures was etched in a mesa form (i.e., an etched mesa). From this work, it was found that a 300 μm long anti-reflection (AR)-AR DFB-LD with a mesa width of 8 μm is reduced by about 25% while a side mode suppression ratio is >50 dB and a 3 dB bandwidth is >10 GHz at a current of 40 mA; in addition, it shows a clear eye-opening with a dynamic extinction ratio of >4.5 dB at 10 Gb s −1 , and a power penalty of <1 dB after a 2 km transmission. (paper)

EVALUACIÓN DEL DISEÑO DE UNA PEQUEÑA MESA VIBRATORIA PARA ENSAYOS EN INGENIERÍA SISMO-RESISTENTE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julián Carrillo

2013-01-01

Full Text Available Las consecuencias catastróficas de los sismos han incentivado la realización de estudios experimentales para mitigar los efectos de los sismos sobre las estructuras. En el artículo se presenta la evaluación de los diseños mecánico, neumático, estructural, de control y de adquisición de datos, de una pequeña mesa vibratoria uniaxial para ensayos de estructuras a escala reducida. Inicialmente se eligieron los elementos mecánicos que permiten el movimiento de la mesa. Luego se validó el desempeño del sistema a partir de herramientas de simulación. Finalmente se estudió la automatización de la mesa por medio de un control con sistema de lazo abierto, implementado en un micro-controlador. La mesa vibratoria propuesta es una herramienta versátil y económica para realizar pruebas experimentales orientadas al análisis y diseño de estructuras sometidas a eventos sísmicos. El dispositivo propuesto promoverá la investigación no sólo en nuevos materiales, sino en diseño y rehabilitación de viviendas, edificios y puentes sismo-resistentes.

Investigating the Influence of Regional Stress on Fault and Fracture Permeability at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Reeves, Donald M. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States); Smith, Kenneth D. [Univ. of Nevada, Reno, NV (United States); Parashar, Rishi [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Reno, NV (United States); Collins, Cheryl [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States); Heintz, Kevin M. [Desert Research Inst. (DRI), Las Vegas, NV (United States)

2017-05-24

Regional stress may exert considerable control on the permeability and hydraulic function (i.e., barrier to and/or conduit for fluid flow) of faults and fractures at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site (NNSS). In-situ measurements of the stress field are sparse in this area, and short period earthquake focal mechanisms are used to delineate principal horizontal stress orientations. Stress field inversion solutions to earthquake focal mechanisms indicate that Pahute Mesa is located within a transtensional faulting regime, represented by oblique slip on steeply dipping normal fault structures, with maximum horizontal stress ranging from N29°E to N63°E and average of N42°E. Average horizontal stress directions are in general agreement with large diameter borehole breakouts from Pahute Mesa analyzed in this study and with stress measurements from other locations on the NNSS.

Hydrologic Data for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drici, Warda [Stoller-Navarro Joint Venture, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

2004-02-01

This report documents the analysis of the available hydrologic data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

Plutonium-238 Decision Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brown, Mike; Lechel, David J.; Leigh, C.D.

1999-01-01

Five transuranic (TRU) waste sites in the Department of Energy (DOE) complex, collectively, have more than 2,100 cubic meters of Plutonium-238 (Pu-238) TRU waste that exceed the wattage restrictions of the Transuranic Package Transporter-II (TRUPACT-11). The Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) is being developed by the DOE as a repository for TRU waste. With the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) opening in 1999, these sites are faced with a need to develop waste management practices that will enable the transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste to WIPP for disposal. This paper describes a decision analysis that provided a logical framework for addressing the Pu-238 TRU waste issue. The insights that can be gained by performing a formalized decision analysis are multifold. First and foremost, the very process. of formulating a decision tree forces the decision maker into structured, logical thinking where alternatives can be evaluated one against the other using a uniform set of criteria. In the process of developing the decision tree for transportation of Pu-238 TRU waste, several alternatives were eliminated and the logical order for decision making was discovered. Moreover, the key areas of uncertainty for proposed alternatives were identified and quantified. The decision analysis showed that the DOE can employ a combination approach where they will (1) use headspace gas analyses to show that a fraction of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums are no longer generating hydrogen gas and can be shipped to WIPP ''as-is'', (2) use drums and bags with advanced filter systems to repackage Pu-238 TRU waste drums that are still generating hydrogen, and (3) add hydrogen getter materials to the inner containment vessel of the TRUPACT-11to relieve the build-up of hydrogen gas during transportation of the Pu-238 TRU waste drums

Applied decision analysis and risk evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferse, W.; Kruber, S.

1995-01-01

During 1994 the workgroup 'Applied Decision Analysis and Risk Evaluation; continued the work on the knowledge based decision support system XUMA-GEFA for the evaluation of the hazard potential of contaminated sites. Additionally a new research direction was started which aims at the support of a later stage of the treatment of contaminated sites: The clean-up decision. For the support of decisions arising at this stage, the methods of decision analysis will be used. Computational aids for evaluation and decision support were implemented and a case study at a waste disposal site in Saxony which turns out to be a danger for the surrounding groundwater ressource was initiated. (orig.)

Completion Report for Well ER-EC-15 Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NSTec Environmental Management

2011-05-31

Well ER-EC-15 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Nevada Environmental Restoration Project at the Nevada National Security Site (formerly known as the Nevada Test Site), Nye County, Nevada. The well was drilled in October and November 2010, as part of the Pahute Mesa Phase II drilling program. The primary purpose of the well was to provide detailed hydrogeologic information in the Tertiary volcanic section in the area between Pahute Mesa and the Timber Mountain caldera complex that will help address uncertainties within the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley hydrostratigraphic model. In particular, the well was intended to help define the structural position and hydraulic parameters of volcanic aquifers potentially down-gradient from underground nuclear tests on Pahute Mesa. It may also be used as a long-term monitoring well.

Completion Report for Well ER-EC-12 Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NSTec Environmental Management

2011-04-30

Well ER-EC-12 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office in support of the Nevada Environmental Restoration Project at the Nevada National Security Site (formerly known as the Nevada Test Site), Nye County, Nevada. The well was drilled in June and July 2010 as part of the Pahute Mesa Phase II drilling program. The primary purpose of the well was to provide detailed hydrogeologic information in the Tertiary volcanic section in the area between Pahute Mesa and the Timber Mountain caldera complex that will help address uncertainties within the Pahute Mesa–Oasis Valley hydrostratigraphic model. In particular, the well was intended to help define the structural position and hydraulic parameters for volcanic aquifers potentially down-gradient from historic underground nuclear tests on Pahute Mesa. It may also be used as a long-term monitoring well.

MESAFace, a graphical interface to analyze the MESA output

Science.gov (United States)

Giannotti, M.; Wise, M.; Mohammed, A.

2013-04-01

MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics) has become very popular among astrophysicists as a powerful and reliable code to simulate stellar evolution. Analyzing the output data thoroughly may, however, present some challenges and be rather time-consuming. Here we describe MESAFace, a graphical and dynamical interface which provides an intuitive, efficient and quick way to analyze the MESA output. Catalogue identifier: AEOQ_v1_0 Program summary URL:http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/summaries/AEOQ_v1_0.html Program obtainable from: CPC Program Library, Queen’s University, Belfast, N. Ireland Licensing provisions: Standard CPC licence, http://cpc.cs.qub.ac.uk/licence/licence.html No. of lines in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 19165 No. of bytes in distributed program, including test data, etc.: 6300592 Distribution format: tar.gz Programming language: Mathematica. Computer: Any computer capable of running Mathematica. Operating system: Any capable of running Mathematica. Tested on Linux, Mac, Windows XP, Windows 7. RAM: Recommended 2 Gigabytes or more. Supplementary material: Additional test data files are available. Classification: 1.7, 14. Nature of problem: Find a way to quickly and thoroughly analyze the output of a MESA run, including all the profiles, and have an efficient method to produce graphical representations of the data. Solution method: We created two scripts (to be run consecutively). The first one downloads all the data from a MESA run and organizes the profiles in order of age. All the files are saved as tables or arrays of tables which can then be accessed very quickly by Mathematica. The second script uses the Manipulate function to create a graphical interface which allows the user to choose what to plot from a set of menus and buttons. The information shown is updated in real time. The user can access very quickly all the data from the run under examination and visualize it with plots and tables. Unusual features: Moving the

The ideal table grapes for the Spanish market A uva de mesa ideal para o mercado espanhol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar Rosso Piva

2006-08-01

Full Text Available This paper seeks to explore a survey of consumers in Spain. The survey explores the attributes of quality that consumers are seeking and promotion of grapes via "quality" marks, which are indicators of possible ways to increase demand. The reason consumers are switching to other foods, such as dairy based snacks, is that grapes are not easy to eat, can be unreliable in terms of their quality attributes, and their price more variable. Consumers are also generally unaware of the marks quality currently used.Este trabalho busca explorar o mercado da uva de mesa na Espanha, do ponto de vista do consumidor. O estudo explora os atributos de qualidade que os consumidores estão buscando e a promoção da uva de mesa via marcas de "qualidade" com a possibilidade de incremento de demanda. A importância deste estudo reside na mudança que vem ocorrendo no hábito de consumo de alimentos, onde as frutas e verduras em geral, e a uva de mesa em particular têm perdido espaço para produtos prontos para o consumo, como os derivados lácteos , doces e sobremesas. Em contraste, a uva de mesa não se apresenta pronta para o consumo, possui qualidade de fruta e preços mais variáveis, e o conceito de marca comercial encontra-se ainda pouco estabelecido, ao contrário dos produtos industrializados.

Multicriteria decision analysis: Overview and implications for environmental decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Hermans, Caroline M.; Erickson, Jon D.; Erickson, Jon D.; Messner, Frank; Ring, Irene

2007-01-01

Environmental decision making involving multiple stakeholders can benefit from the use of a formal process to structure stakeholder interactions, leading to more successful outcomes than traditional discursive decision processes. There are many tools available to handle complex decision making. Here we illustrate the use of a multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) outranking tool (PROMETHEE) to facilitate decision making at the watershed scale, involving multiple stakeholders, multiple criteria, and multiple objectives. We compare various MCDA methods and their theoretical underpinnings, examining methods that most realistically model complex decision problems in ways that are understandable and transparent to stakeholders.

Advancing Alternative Analysis: Integration of Decision Science

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Malloy, Timothy F; Zaunbrecher, Virginia M; Batteate, Christina

2016-01-01

Decision analysis-a systematic approach to solving complex problems-offers tools and frameworks to support decision making that are increasingly being applied to environmental challenges. Alternatives analysis is a method used in regulation and product design to identify, compare, and evaluate......, and civil society and included experts in toxicology, decision science, alternatives assessment, engineering, and law and policy. Participants were divided into two groups and prompted with targeted questions. Throughout the workshop, the groups periodically came together in plenary sessions to reflect......) engaging the systematic development and evaluation of decision approaches and tools; (2) using case studies to advance the integration of decision analysis into alternatives analysis; (3) supporting transdisciplinary research; and (4) supporting education and outreach efforts....

Contaminant Transport Parameters for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Drici, Warda [International Technologies Corporation, Las Vegas, NV (United States)

2003-08-01

This report documents the analysis of the available transport parameter data conducted in support of the development of a Corrective Action Unit (CAU) groundwater flow model for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: CAUs 101 and 102.

Two-dimensional velocity models for paths from Pahute Mesa and Yucca Flat to Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Walck, M.C.; Phillips, J.S.

1990-11-01

Vertical acceleration recordings of 21 underground nuclear explosions recorded at stations at Yucca Mountain provide the data for development of three two-dimensional crystal velocity profiles for portions of the Nevada Test Site. Paths from Area 19, Area 20 (both Pahute Mesa), and Yucca Flat to Yucca Mountain have been modeled using asymptotic ray theory travel time and synthetic seismogram techniques. Significant travel time differences exist between the Yucca Flat and Pahute Mesa source areas; relative amplitude patterns at Yucca Mountain also shift with changing source azimuth. The three models, UNEPM1, UNEPM2, and UNEYF1, successfully predict the travel time and amplitude data for all three paths. 24 refs., 34 figs., 8 tabs

The potential for meta-analysis to support decision analysis in ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M Aaron; Caley, M Julian

2015-06-01

Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable expectations that benefits would be derived from doing so. Meta-analysis combines information from multiple studies to provide more accurate parameter estimates and to reduce the uncertainty surrounding them. Decision analysis involves selecting among alternative choices using statistical information that helps to shed light on the uncertainties involved. By linking meta-analysis to decision analysis, improved decisions can be made, with quantification of the costs and benefits of alternate decisions supported by a greater density of information. Here, we briefly review concepts of both meta-analysis and decision analysis, illustrating the natural linkage between them and the benefits from explicitly linking one to the other. We discuss some examples in which this linkage has been exploited in the medical arena and how improvements in precision and reduction of structural uncertainty inherent in a meta-analysis can provide substantive improvements to decision analysis outcomes by reducing uncertainty in expected loss and maximising information from across studies. We then argue that these significant benefits could be translated to ecology, in particular to the problem of making optimal ecological decisions in the face of uncertainty. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Mesa Verde: A Study of Man in an Agricultural Setting. Library Packet.

Science.gov (United States)

Community Health Service (DHEW/PHS), Bethesda, MD.

This collection of secondary readings contains general information about the ecology of living space, and specific information about the prehistory ecology of Mesa Verde, Colorado. There is also a section on how anthropologists use trees to date artifacts. A related document is indexed as ED 001 721. (AWW)

El origen de la Mesa Maestral en la Orden de San

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Manuel López Fernández

2009-01-01

Full Text Available En las páginas siguientes tratamos de analizar las circunstancias que originaron el nacimiento de la Mesa Maestral en la Orden de Santiago, así como las consecuencias inmediatas que la aparición de este organismo económico –fuente exclusiva de rentas para los maestres— tuvo en dicha Orden. El análisis lo hacemos apoyándonos en el documento correspondiente al Capítulo General donde se estableció un nuevo rumbo para el reparto de los bienes temporales de la institución santiaguista. A pesar de que dicho documento está sin datar, nuestra opinión es que corresponde al Capítulo General de 1271 y que la Mesa Maestral surgió en el seno de la Orden de Santiago como consecuencia de la presión que los comendadores ejercieron sobre el maestre Pelay Pérez Correa en los años finales de su vida.In the following pages we try to analyze the circumstances that led to the birth of the Masters Bureau in the Order of Santiago, as well as the immediate effects that the birth of this economic body, exclusive source of revenue for the Masters, was in that Order. The analysis we do to build on the document for the General Chapter, which set a new course for the temporary sharing out of property in the santiaguista. institution Although the document is not dated, our view is that belongs to the General Chapter of 1271 and that the Masters Bureau arose within the Order of Santiago as a result of the pressure exerted by the Knight commanders on the grand master Pelayo Perez Correa in the final years of his life.

Women's Self-Efficacy Perceptions in Mathematics and Science: Investigating USC-MESA Students

Science.gov (United States)

Hong, Rebecca C.; Jun, Alexander

2012-01-01

Higher education institutions have struggled with the underrepresentation of female students in the STEM majors. The authors investigate the USC-MESA program and the role of women's self-efficacy perceptions in mathematics and science. It is crucial to understand the theory of self-efficacy in examining historically underrepresented populations in…

Medical decision making tools: Bayesian analysis and ROC analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Byung Do

2006-01-01

During the diagnostic process of the various oral and maxillofacial lesions, we should consider the following: 'When should we order diagnostic tests? What tests should be ordered? How should we interpret the results clinically? And how should we use this frequently imperfect information to make optimal medical decision?' For the clinicians to make proper judgement, several decision making tools are suggested. This article discusses the concept of the diagnostic accuracy (sensitivity and specificity values) with several decision making tools such as decision matrix, ROC analysis and Bayesian analysis. The article also explain the introductory concept of ORAD program

Programa para mejorar la atención en Mesas de Partes de la Corte Suprema de Justici

OpenAIRE

Pinto Malache, Rita Giovanna

2016-01-01

La presente investigación tuvo como objetivo general explicar el efecto del programa de capacitación en la atención que brindan las Mesas de Partes al usuario externo de la Corte Suprema de Justicia de la República del Perú. Año 2015; la población infinita, la muestra probabilística consideró 384 usuarios, en los cuales se ha empleado las variables: Programa de atención en mesa de partes y Atención al usuario. El método empleado en la investigación fue el hipotético deductivo,...

Mesa Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST). I. Solar-scaled Models

Science.gov (United States)

Choi, Jieun; Dotter, Aaron; Conroy, Charlie; Cantiello, Matteo; Paxton, Bill; Johnson, Benjamin D.

2016-06-01

This is the first of a series of papers presenting the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) project, a new comprehensive set of stellar evolutionary tracks and isochrones computed using MESA, a state-of-the-art open-source 1D stellar evolution package. In this work, we present models with solar-scaled abundance ratios covering a wide range of ages (5≤slant {log}({Age}) [{year}]≤slant 10.3), masses (0.1≤slant M/{M}⊙ ≤slant 300), and metallicities (-2.0≤slant [{{Z}}/{{H}}]≤slant 0.5). The models are self-consistently and continuously evolved from the pre-main sequence (PMS) to the end of hydrogen burning, the white dwarf cooling sequence, or the end of carbon burning, depending on the initial mass. We also provide a grid of models evolved from the PMS to the end of core helium burning for -4.0≤slant [{{Z}}/{{H}}]\\lt -2.0. We showcase extensive comparisons with observational constraints as well as with some of the most widely used existing models in the literature. The evolutionary tracks and isochrones can be downloaded from the project website at http://waps.cfa.harvard.edu/MIST/.

Geohydrologic data and models of Rainier Mesa and their implications to Yucca Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang, J.S.Y.; Cook, N.G.W.; Wollenberg, H.A.; Carnahan, C.L.; Javandel, I.; Tsang, C.F.

1993-01-01

The geohydrologic data collected at Rainier Mesa provide the only extensive observations in tunnels presently available on flow and transport in tuff units similar to those of a potential nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain. This information can, therefore, be of great value in planning the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) testing in underground drifts at Yucca Mountain. In this paper, we compare the geohydrologic characteristics of tuff units of these two sites and summarize the hydrochemical data indicating the presence of nearly meteoric water in Rainier Mesa tunnels. A simple analytic model is used to evaluate the possibility of propagating transient pulses of water along fractures or faults through the Paintbrush nonwelded tuff unit to reach the tunnel beds below. The results suggest that fast flow could occur without significant mixing between meteoric fracture water and matrix pore water. The implications of these findings on planning for the ESF Calico Hills study at Yucca Mountain are discussed

Mountainous Ecosystem Sensor Array (MESA): a mesh sensor network for climate change research in remote mountainous environments

Science.gov (United States)

Robinson, P. W.; Neal, D.; Frome, D.; Kavanagh, K.; Davis, A.; Gessler, P. E.; Hess, H.; Holden, Z. A.; Link, T. E.; Newingham, B. A.; Smith, A. M.

2013-12-01

Developing sensor networks robust enough to perform unattended in the world's remote regions is critical since these regions serve as important benchmarks that lack anthropogenic influence. Paradoxically, the factors that make these remote, natural sites challenging for sensor networking are often what make them indispensable for climate change research. The MESA (Mountainous Ecosystem Sensor Array) project has faced these challenges and developed a wireless mesh sensor network across a 660 m topoclimatic gradient in a wilderness area in central Idaho. This sensor array uses advances in sensing, networking, and power supply technologies to provide near real-time synchronized data covering a suite of biophysical parameters used in ecosystem process models. The 76 sensors in the network monitor atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, humidity, air and soil temperature, soil water content, precipitation, incoming and outgoing shortwave and longwave radiation, snow depth, wind speed and direction, and leaf wetness at synchronized time intervals ranging from two minutes to two hours and spatial scales from a few meters to two kilometers. We present our novel methods of placing sensors and network nodes above, below, and throughout the forest canopy without using meteorological towers. In addition, we explain our decision to use different forms of power (wind and solar) and the equipment we use to control and integrate power harvesting. Further, we describe our use of the network to sense and quantify its own power use. Using examples of environmental data from the project, we discuss how these data may be used to increase our understanding of the effects of climate change on ecosystem processes in mountainous environments. MESA sensor locations across a 700 m topoclimatic gradient at the University of Idaho Taylor Wilderness Research Station.

Estimating Pesticide Exposure from Dietary Intake and Organic Food Choices: The Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Science.gov (United States)

Beresford, Shirley A.A.; Fenske, Richard A.; Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Lu, Chensheng; Nettleton, Jennifer A.; Kaufman, Joel D.

2015-01-01

Background Organophosphate pesticide (OP) exposure to the U.S. population is dominated by dietary intake. The magnitude of exposure from diet depends partly on personal decisions such as which foods to eat and whether to choose organic food. Most studies of OP exposure rely on urinary biomarkers, which are limited by short half-lives and often lack specificity to parent compounds. A reliable means of estimating long-term dietary exposure to individual OPs is needed to assess the potential relationship with adverse health effects. Objectives We assessed long-term dietary exposure to 14 OPs among 4,466 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis, and examined the influence of organic produce consumption on this exposure. Methods Individual-level exposure was estimated by combining information on typical intake of specific food items with average OP residue levels on those items. In an analysis restricted to a subset of participants who reported rarely or never eating organic produce (“conventional consumers”), we assessed urinary dialkylphosphate (DAP) levels across tertiles of estimated exposure (n = 480). In a second analysis, we compared DAP levels across subgroups with differing self-reported organic produce consumption habits (n = 240). Results Among conventional consumers, increasing tertile of estimated dietary OP exposure was associated with higher DAP concentrations (p Fenske RA, Fitzpatrick AL, Lu C, Nettleton JA, Kaufman JD. 2015. Estimating pesticide exposure from dietary intake and organic food choices: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Environ Health Perspect 123:475–483; http://dx.doi.org/10.1289/ehp.1408197 PMID:25650532

Availability, Sustainability, and Suitability of Ground Water, Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado - Types of Analyses and Data for Use in Subdivision Water-Supply Reports

Science.gov (United States)

Watts, Kenneth R.

2008-01-01

The population of Delta County, Colorado, like that in much of the Western United States, is forecast to increase substantially in the next few decades. A substantial portion of the increased population likely will reside in rural subdivisions and use residential wells for domestic water supplies. In Colorado, a subdivision developer is required to submit a water-supply plan through the county for approval by the Colorado Division of Water Resources. If the water supply is to be provided by wells, the water-supply plan must include a water-supply report. The water-supply report demonstrates the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the water supply for the proposed subdivision. During 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with Delta County, Colorado, began a study to develop criteria that the Delta County Land Use Department can use to evaluate water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. A table was prepared that lists the types of analyses and data that may be needed in a water-supply report for a water-supply plan that proposes the use of ground water. A preliminary analysis of the availability, sustainability, and suitability of the ground-water resources of Rogers Mesa, Delta County, Colorado, was prepared for a hypothetical subdivision to demonstrate hydrologic analyses and data that may be needed for water-supply reports for proposed subdivisions. Rogers Mesa is a 12-square-mile upland mesa located along the north side of the North Fork Gunnison River about 15 miles east of Delta, Colorado. The principal land use on Rogers Mesa is irrigated agriculture, with about 5,651 acres of irrigated cropland, grass pasture, and orchards. The principal source of irrigation water is surface water diverted from the North Fork Gunnison River and Leroux Creek. The estimated area of platted subdivisions on or partially on Rogers Mesa in 2007 was about 4,792 acres of which about 2,756 acres was irrigated land in 2000. The principal aquifer on Rogers

Groundwater, surface-water, and water-chemistry data, Black Mesa area, northeastern Arizona—2013–2015

Science.gov (United States)

Macy, Jamie P.; Mason, Jon P.

2017-12-07

The Navajo (N) aquifer is an extensive aquifer and the primary source of groundwater in the 5,400-square-mile Black Mesa area in northeastern Arizona. Availability of water is an important issue in northeastern Arizona because of continued water requirements for industrial and municipal use by a growing population and because of low precipitation in the arid climate of the Black Mesa area. Precipitation in the area typically is between 6 and 16 inches per year.The U.S. Geological Survey water-monitoring program in the Black Mesa area began in 1971 and provides information about the long-term effects of groundwater withdrawals from the N aquifer for industrial and municipal uses. This report presents results of data collected as part of the monitoring program in the Black Mesa area from January 2013 to December 2015. The monitoring program includes measurements of (1) groundwater withdrawals (pumping), (2) groundwater levels, (3) spring discharge, (4) surface-water discharge, and (5) groundwater chemistry.In 2013, total groundwater withdrawals were 3,980 acre-feet (ft), in 2014 total withdrawals were 4,170 acre-ft, and in 2015 total withdrawals were 3,970 acre-ft. From 2013 to 2015 total withdrawals varied by less than 5 percent.From 2014 to 2015, annually measured water levels in the Black Mesa area declined in 9 of 15 wells that were available for comparison in the unconfined areas of the N aquifer, and the median change was -0.1 feet. Water levels declined in 3 of 16 wells measured in the confined area of the aquifer. The median change for the confined area of the aquifer was 0.6 feet. From the prestress period (prior to 1965) to 2015, the median water-level change for 34 wells in both the confined and unconfined areas was -13.2 feet; the median water-level changes were -1.7 feet for 16 wells measured in the unconfined areas and -42.3 feet for 18 wells measured in the confined area.Spring flow was measured at four springs in 2014. Flow fluctuated during the

Nivel de aceptabilidad para cinco variedades de uva de mesa en el mercado español Nivel de aceitabilidade para cinco variedades de uva de mesa no mercado espanhol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cesar Rosso Piva

2006-04-01

Full Text Available Con el objetivo de evaluar el nivel de aceptabilidad con relación a distintas variedades de uva de mesa, la Unidad de Comercialización y Divulgación Agraria del Departamento de Economía y Ciencias Sociales Agrarias (E.T.S.I.Agrónomos, de la Universidad Politécnica de Madrid, realizó la presente investigación en julio de 1999. Se utilizó el análisis sensorial en Sala de Catas como herramienta para la evaluación del nivel de aceptabilidad de cinco variedades de uva de mesa. Se puso énfasis en conocer las posibles diferencias de carácter sensorial entre las variedades Flame Seedless, Cardinal, Superior Seedless, Victoria y Redgloble, variedades que coinciden en su época de cosecha en España. En los análisis hechos, las variedades Cardinal y Superior Seedless fueron las más preferidas en comparación con Flame Seedless, Victoria y Redgloble. La variedad Superior Seedless fue muy valorada por su ausencia de semillas, además de su buen sabor, lo que la torna de gran potencial para el mercado español. El sabor, seguido de la jugosidad, fueron los elementos determinantes en el proceso de aceptación de la uva.Com o objetivo de avaliar o nível de aceitabilidade de distintas variedades de uva de mesa, a Unidade de Comercialização e Divulgação Agrária do Departamento de Economia y Ciências Sociales Agrárias (E.T.S.I. Agrónomos, da Universidade Politécnica de Madri, realizou o presente estudo em julho de 1999. Empregou-se a análise sensorial para a avaliação do nível de aceitabilidade de cinco variedades de uva de mesa. Procurou-se determinar especial atenção em conhecer as possíveis diferenças de caráter sensorial entre as variedades Flame Seedless, Cardinal, Superior Seedless, Victoria e Redgloble. Nos pomares espanhóis, essas variedades atingem a maturação de colheita na mesma época. Nas análises realizadas, as variedades Cardinal e Superior Seedless foram as mais preferidas em comparação com Flame Seedless

Probabilistic Analysis in Management Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Delmar, M. V.; Sørensen, John Dalsgaard

1992-01-01

The target group in this paper is people concerned with mathematical economic decision theory. It is shown how the numerically effective First Order Reliability Methods (FORM) can be used in rational management decision making, where some parameters in the applied decision basis are uncertainty...... quantities. The uncertainties are taken into account consistently and the decision analysis is based on the general decision theory in combination with reliability and optimization theory. Examples are shown where the described technique is used and some general conclusion are stated....

How decision analysis can further nanoinformatics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bates, Matthew E; Larkin, Sabrina; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Linkov, Igor

2015-01-01

The increase in nanomaterial research has resulted in increased nanomaterial data. The next challenge is to meaningfully integrate and interpret these data for better and more efficient decisions. Due to the complex nature of nanomaterials, rapid changes in technology, and disunified testing and data publishing strategies, information regarding material properties is often illusive, uncertain, and/or of varying quality, which limits the ability of researchers and regulatory agencies to process and use the data. The vision of nanoinformatics is to address this problem by identifying the information necessary to support specific decisions (a top-down approach) and collecting and visualizing these relevant data (a bottom-up approach). Current nanoinformatics efforts, however, have yet to efficiently focus data acquisition efforts on the research most relevant for bridging specific nanomaterial data gaps. Collecting unnecessary data and visualizing irrelevant information are expensive activities that overwhelm decision makers. We propose that the decision analytic techniques of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA), value of information (VOI), weight of evidence (WOE), and portfolio decision analysis (PDA) can bridge the gap from current data collection and visualization efforts to present information relevant to specific decision needs. Decision analytic and Bayesian models could be a natural extension of mechanistic and statistical models for nanoinformatics practitioners to master in solving complex nanotechnology challenges.

Risk-based decision analysis for groundwater operable units

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chiaramonte, G.R.

1995-01-01

This document proposes a streamlined approach and methodology for performing risk assessment in support of interim remedial measure (IRM) decisions involving the remediation of contaminated groundwater on the Hanford Site. This methodology, referred to as ''risk-based decision analysis,'' also supports the specification of target cleanup volumes and provides a basis for design and operation of the groundwater remedies. The risk-based decision analysis can be completed within a short time frame and concisely documented. The risk-based decision analysis is more versatile than the qualitative risk assessment (QRA), because it not only supports the need for IRMs, but also provides criteria for defining the success of the IRMs and provides the risk-basis for decisions on final remedies. For these reasons, it is proposed that, for groundwater operable units, the risk-based decision analysis should replace the more elaborate, costly, and time-consuming QRA

Decision analysis with cumulative prospect theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Bayoumi, A M; Redelmeier, D A

2000-01-01

Individuals sometimes express preferences that do not follow expected utility theory. Cumulative prospect theory adjusts for some phenomena by using decision weights rather than probabilities when analyzing a decision tree. The authors examined how probability transformations from cumulative prospect theory might alter a decision analysis of a prophylactic therapy in AIDS, eliciting utilities from patients with HIV infection (n = 75) and calculating expected outcomes using an established Markov model. They next focused on transformations of three sets of probabilities: 1) the probabilities used in calculating standard-gamble utility scores; 2) the probabilities of being in discrete Markov states; 3) the probabilities of transitioning between Markov states. The same prophylaxis strategy yielded the highest quality-adjusted survival under all transformations. For the average patient, prophylaxis appeared relatively less advantageous when standard-gamble utilities were transformed. Prophylaxis appeared relatively more advantageous when state probabilities were transformed and relatively less advantageous when transition probabilities were transformed. Transforming standard-gamble and transition probabilities simultaneously decreased the gain from prophylaxis by almost half. Sensitivity analysis indicated that even near-linear probability weighting transformations could substantially alter quality-adjusted survival estimates. The magnitude of benefit estimated in a decision-analytic model can change significantly after using cumulative prospect theory. Incorporating cumulative prospect theory into decision analysis can provide a form of sensitivity analysis and may help describe when people deviate from expected utility theory.

Custo de produção de goiabas para mesa produzidas com e sem ensacamento: estudo de caso

OpenAIRE

Tatiane de Oliveira Tokairin; Fernando Perez Cappello; Marcel Bellato Spósito

2014-01-01

O ensacamento de goiabas para mesa tem por finalidade proteger os frutos contra o ataque de pragas, reduzir a aplicações e os níveis de resíduo de agroquímicos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a sustentabilidade econômica da produção de goiabas, por meio da comparação do custo de produção entre os sistemas de cultivo com e sem ensacamento dos frutos. Foi realizado um estudo de caso com dados obtidos de uma propriedade comercial de goiabas para mesa no município de Valinhos - SP. O custo...

Decision theory, the context for risk and reliability analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kaplan, S.

1985-01-01

According to this model of the decision process then, the optimum decision is that option having the largest expected utility. This is the fundamental model of a decision situation. It is necessary to remark that in order for the model to represent a real-life decision situation, it must include all the options present in that situation, including, for example, the option of not deciding--which is itself a decision, although usually not the optimum one. Similarly, it should include the option of delaying the decision while the authors gather further information. Both of these options have probabilities, outcomes, impacts, and utilities like any option and should be included explicitly in the decision diagram. The reason for doing a quantitative risk or reliability analysis is always that, somewhere underlying there is a decision to be made. The decision analysis therefore always forms the context for the risk or reliability analysis, and this context shapes the form and language of that analysis. Therefore, they give in this section a brief review of the well-known decision theory diagram

Phase I Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada with Errata Sheet 1, 2, 3, Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greg Ruskauff

2009-02-01

As prescribed in the Pahute Mesa Corrective Action Investigation Plan (CAIP) (DOE/NV, 1999) and Appendix VI of the Federal Facility Agreement and Consent Order (FFACO) (1996, as amended February 2008), the ultimate goal of transport analysis is to develop stochastic predictions of a contaminant boundary at a specified level of uncertainty. However, because of the significant uncertainty of the model results, the primary goal of this report was modified through mutual agreement between the DOE and the State of Nevada to assess the primary model components that contribute to this uncertainty and to postpone defining the contaminant boundary until additional model refinement is completed. Therefore, the role of this analysis has been to understand the behavior of radionuclide migration in the Pahute Mesa (PM) Corrective Action Unit (CAU) model and to define, both qualitatively and quantitatively, the sensitivity of such behavior to (flow) model conceptualization and (flow and transport) parameterization.

Baseline studies in the desert ecosystem at East Mesa Geothermal Test Site, Imperial Valley, California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Romney, E.M.; Wallace, A.; Lunt, O.R.; Ackerman, T.A.; Kinnear, J.E.

1977-09-01

Baseline data reported herein for soil, vegetation, and small mammal components of the East Mesa desert ecosystem represent a collection period from October 1975 to September 1977. Inasmuch as changes in salt balance from geothermal brine sources are of potential impact upon the ecosystem, considerable analytical effort was given to the determination of element constituents in soil, plant, and animal samples. A preliminary synthesis of data was done to investigate the heterogeneity of element constituents among the sampled population and to summarize results. Findings indicate that periodic sampling and chemical analysis of vegetation around an industrialized geothermal energy source is probably the best way to monitor the surrounding ecosystem for assuring containment of any resource pollutants.

Environmental sustainable decision making – The need and obstacles for integration of LCA into decision analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dong, Yan; Miraglia, Simona; Manzo, Stefano

2018-01-01

systems, revealing potential problem shifting between life cycle stages. Through the integration with traditional risk based decision analysis, LCA may thus facilitate a better informed decision process. In this study we explore how environmental impacts are taken into account in different fields......Decision analysis is often used to help decision makers choose among alternatives, based on the expected utility associated to each alternative as function of its consequences and potential impacts. Environmental impacts are not always among the prioritized concerns of traditional decision making...... of interest for decision makers to identify the need, potential and obstacles for integrating LCA into conventional approaches to decision problems. Three application areas are used as examples: transportation planning, flood management, and food production and consumption. The analysis of these cases shows...

77 FR 18997 - Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa Ranger...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-29

... DEPARTMENT OF AGRICULTURE Forest Service Rim Lakes Forest Restoration Project; Apache-Sitgreavese National Forest, Black Mesa Ranger District, Coconino County, AZ AGENCY: Forest Service, USDA. ACTION: Notice of intent to prepare an environmental impact statement. SUMMARY: The U.S. Forest Service (FS) will...

Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan TA-60 Roads and Grounds Facility and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sandoval, Leonard Frank [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2017-02-01

This Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) is applicable to operations at the Technical Area -60 (TA-60) Roads and Grounds Facility and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area off Eniwetok Drive, in Los Alamos County, New Mexico.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

OpenAIRE

Vickers Andrew; Hozo Iztok; Tsalatsanis Athanasios; Djulbegovic Benjamin

2010-01-01

Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. ...

Sensitivity Analysis in Sequential Decision Models.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Qiushi; Ayer, Turgay; Chhatwal, Jagpreet

2017-02-01

Sequential decision problems are frequently encountered in medical decision making, which are commonly solved using Markov decision processes (MDPs). Modeling guidelines recommend conducting sensitivity analyses in decision-analytic models to assess the robustness of the model results against the uncertainty in model parameters. However, standard methods of conducting sensitivity analyses cannot be directly applied to sequential decision problems because this would require evaluating all possible decision sequences, typically in the order of trillions, which is not practically feasible. As a result, most MDP-based modeling studies do not examine confidence in their recommended policies. In this study, we provide an approach to estimate uncertainty and confidence in the results of sequential decision models. First, we provide a probabilistic univariate method to identify the most sensitive parameters in MDPs. Second, we present a probabilistic multivariate approach to estimate the overall confidence in the recommended optimal policy considering joint uncertainty in the model parameters. We provide a graphical representation, which we call a policy acceptability curve, to summarize the confidence in the optimal policy by incorporating stakeholders' willingness to accept the base case policy. For a cost-effectiveness analysis, we provide an approach to construct a cost-effectiveness acceptability frontier, which shows the most cost-effective policy as well as the confidence in that for a given willingness to pay threshold. We demonstrate our approach using a simple MDP case study. We developed a method to conduct sensitivity analysis in sequential decision models, which could increase the credibility of these models among stakeholders.

Decision analysis for dynamic accounting of nuclear material

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shipley, J.P.

1978-01-01

Effective materials accounting for special nuclear material in modern fuel cycle facilities will depend heavily on sophisticated data analysis techniques. Decision analysis, which combines elements of estimation theory, decision theory, and systems analysis, is a framework well suited to the development and application of these techniques. Augmented by pattern-recognition tools such as the alarm-sequence chart, decision analysis can be used to reduce errors caused by subjective data evaluation and to condense large collections of data to a smaller set of more descriptive statistics. Application to data from a model plutonium nitrate-to-oxide conversion process illustrates the concepts

MESA models of the evolutionary state of the interacting binary epsilon Aurigae

Science.gov (United States)

Gibson, Justus L.; Stencel, Robert E.

2018-06-01

Using MESA code (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics, version 9575), an evaluation was made of the evolutionary state of the epsilon Aurigae binary system (HD 31964, F0Iap + disc). We sought to satisfy several observational constraints: (1) requiring evolutionary tracks to pass close to the current temperature and luminosity of the primary star; (2) obtaining a period near the observed value of 27.1 years; (3) matching a mass function of 3.0; (4) concurrent Roche lobe overflow and mass transfer; (5) an isotopic ratio 12C/13C = 5 and, (6) matching the interferometrically determined angular diameter. A MESA model starting with binary masses of 9.85 + 4.5 M⊙, with a 100 d initial period, produces a 1.2 + 10.6 M⊙ result having a 547 d period, and a single digit 12C/13C ratio. These values were reached near an age of 20 Myr, when the donor star comes close to the observed luminosity and temperature for epsilon Aurigae A, as a post-RGB/pre-AGB star. Contemporaneously, the accretor then appears as an upper main-sequence, early B-type star. This benchmark model can provide a basis for further exploration of this interacting binary, and other long-period binary stars.

DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTION OF PLASMODIAL MYXOMYCETES (SLIME MOLDS FROM LA MESA ECOPARK, QUEZON CITY, PHILIPPINES

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

THOMAS EDISON E. DELA CRUZ

2010-10-01

Full Text Available Myxomycetes are ubiquitous in terrestrial forest ecosystems. Thus, this research study looks at the taxonomic diversity and distribution of plasmodial myxomycetes in La Mesa Ecopark in Quezon City, Philippines. A total of 240 moist chambers were prepared from four substrates (aerial and ground leaf litter, twigs and barks collected within this ecopark. Following incubation of moist chambers for eight weeks, a total of 28 species belonging to 10 genera were collected and identified: Arcyria (3, Diderma (2, Didymium (5, Lamproderma (2, Perichaena (3, Physarum (8, Macbrideola (1, Metatrichia (1, Trichia (1 and Stemonitis (2. Highest myxomycete yield (85% was observed in aerial leaf litter. In terms of taxonomic diversity, highest diversity was observed in bark microhabitats, although the lowest number of species was recorded in it. Assessment of their abundance and distribution showed similarities in species composition between aerial and ground leaf litter. This research study is the first report of plasmodial myxomycetes in La Mesa Ecopark in Quezon City, Philippines.

78 FR 26771 - Mesa Wind Power Corporation; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-08

... Wind Power Corporation's application for market-based rate authority, with an accompanying rate... DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY Federal Energy Regulatory Commission [Docket No. ER13-1346-000] Mesa Wind Power Corporation; Supplemental Notice That Initial Market-Based Rate Filing Includes Request for...

Application of decision analysis in antibiotic formulary choices.

Science.gov (United States)

Szymusiak-Mutnick, B; Mutnick, A H

1994-01-01

To introduce the reader to the fundamentals involved in using decision analysis as a tool in evaluating the associated costs and effectiveness of comparable therapeutic agents. Currently available literature citations were used to provide the reader with basic references whose purpose is to provide a step-by-step approach for using Decision Analysis in conducting a cost-effective comparison of three commonly used antibiotics. Data were gathered from a previously conducted retrospective chart review where the three antibiotics were used for either prophylactic, empiric, or documented infections. Although this study was limited by its retrospective nature, the reader can use the data to appreciate the fundamentals of decision analysis. The continually changing climate in healthcare and the added visibility of pharmacologic agents in the treatment and prevention of disease has increased pressure on pharmacy departments to provide therapeutic agents that are cost-effective. Decision analysis can be used to compare therapeutic agents, in terms of financial as well as clinical outcomes, in a structured fashion that all members of the health care team can understand. The application of Decision analysis is appropriate for many therapeutic agents, not just antibiotics.

Financial Analysis, Budgeting, Decision and Control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mariana Rodica TIRLEA

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The economic processes taking place in the economic environment are stochastic processes that involve and imply risks, arising from product diversification, competition, financial derivatives transactions: swaps, futures, options and from the large number of actors involved in the stock market with a higher or a smaller uncertainty degree. Competition and competitiveness, led to major and rapid change in the business environment, they determined actors participating in the economy to find solutions and methods of collecting and processing data, in such a way that, after being transformed into information they quickly help based on their analysis in decision making, planning and financial forecasting, having an effect on increasing their economic efficiency. In these circumstances the financial analysis, decision, forecasting and control, should be based on quality information that should be a value creation source. The active nature of the financial function implies the existence of a substantially large share of financial analysis, financial decision, forecasting and control.

Streamflow Characteristics for Selected Stations In and Near the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests, Southwestern Colorado

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Kuhn, Gerhard

2003-01-01

The U.S Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Grand Mesa, Uncompahgre, and Gunnison National Forests, began a study in 2000 to develop selected streamflow characteristics for 60 streamflow-gaging...

Robustness of Multiple Objective Decision Analysis Preference Functions

Science.gov (United States)

2002-06-01

Bayesian Decision Theory and Utilitarian Ethics ,” American Economic Review Papers and Proceedings, 68: 223-228 (May 1978). Hartsough, Bruce R. “A...1983). Morrell, Darryl and Eric Driver. “ Bayesian Network Implementation of Levi’s Epistemic Utility Decision Theory ,” International Journal Of...elicitation efficiency for the decision maker. Subject Terms Decision Analysis, Utility Theory , Elicitation Error, Operations Research, Decision

ERDA test facilities, East Mesa Test Site. Geothermal resource investigations, Imperial Valley, California

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1976-01-01

Detailed specifications which must be complied with in the construction of the ERDA Test Facilities at the East Mesa Site for geothermal resource investigations in Imperial Valley, California are presented for use by prospective bidders for the construction contract. The principle construction work includes a 700 gpm cooling tower with its associated supports and equipment, pipelines from wells, electrical equipment, and all earthwork. (LCL)

Implantação das mesas nacionais de negociação permanente do Sistema Único de Saúde em secretarias estaduais e municipais de saúde

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carinne Magnago

Full Text Available Resumo O objetivo deste artigo é avaliar a implantação da mesa de negociação permanente e identificar os entraves e os avanços decorridos dos processos de negociação no âmbito dos estados e dos municípios brasileiros. O método usado foi estudo descritivo e exploratório, de abrangência nacional. A coleta de dados se deu em 2012 e 2013, por meio de survey com 519 gestores de saúde e grupos focais com 49 gestores e 11 integrantes da Mesa Nacional de Negociação Permanente. Dados foram analisados por estatística descritiva e por análise de conteúdo. Verificou-se existência de 132 mesas de negociação, das quais apenas 87 estão em funcionamento. Os principais motivos para não implantação das mesas são a falta de assessoria técnica e a utilização de outras ferramentas para negociação do trabalho. As principais mudanças nas relações de trabalho em decorrência da atuação das mesas de negociação foram a realização de concursos e de processos seletivos públicos, políticas de desprecarização do trabalho e a implantação de planos de cargos, carreiras e salários. Conclui-se que apesar da potencialidade das mesas como dispositivos de negociação, sua implantação e seu pleno funcionamento esbarram em grandes desafios.

Comparative Analysis of Investment Decision Models

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ieva Kekytė

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Rapid development of financial markets resulted new challenges for both investors and investment issues. This increased demand for innovative, modern investment and portfolio management decisions adequate for market conditions. Financial market receives special attention, creating new models, includes financial risk management and investment decision support systems.Researchers recognize the need to deal with financial problems using models consistent with the reality and based on sophisticated quantitative analysis technique. Thus, role mathematical modeling in finance becomes important. This article deals with various investments decision-making models, which include forecasting, optimization, stochatic processes, artificial intelligence, etc., and become useful tools for investment decisions.

Variable precision rough set for multiple decision attribute analysis

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Lai; Kin; Keung

2008-01-01

A variable precision rough set (VPRS) model is used to solve the multi-attribute decision analysis (MADA) problem with multiple conflicting decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. By introducing confidence measures and a β-reduct, the VPRS model can rationally solve the conflicting decision analysis problem with multiple decision attributes and multiple condition attributes. For illustration, a medical diagnosis example is utilized to show the feasibility of the VPRS model in solving the MADA...

Data Report: Meteorological and Evapotranspiration Data from Sagebrush and Pinyon Pine/Juniper Communities at Pahute Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, 2011-2012

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Jasoni, Richard L [DRI; Larsen, Jessica D [DRI; Lyles, Brad F. [DRI; Healey, John M [DRI; Cooper, Clay A [DRI; Hershey, Ronald L [DRI; Lefebre, Karen J [DRI

2013-04-01

Pahute Mesa is a groundwater recharge area at the Nevada National Security Site. Because underground nuclear testing was conducted at Pahute Mesa, groundwater recharge may transport radionuclides from underground test sites downward to the water table; the amount of groundwater recharge is also an important component of contaminant transport models. To estimate the amount of groundwater recharge at Pahute Mesa, an INFIL3.0 recharge-runoff model is being developed. Two eddy covariance (EC) stations were installed on Pahute Mesa to estimate evapotranspiration (ET) to support the groundwater recharge modeling project. This data report describes the methods that were used to estimate ET and collect meteorological data. Evapotranspiration was estimated for two predominant plant communities on Pahute Mesa; one site was located in a sagebrush plant community, the other site in a pinyon pine/juniper community. Annual ET was estimated to be 310±13.9 mm for the sagebrush site and 347±15.9 mm for the pinyon pine/juniper site (March 26, 2011 to March 26, 2012). Annual precipitation measured with unheated tipping bucket rain gauges was 179 mm at the sagebrush site and 159 mm at the pinyon pine/juniper site. Annual precipitation measured with bulk precipitation gauges was 222 mm at the sagebrush site and 227 mm at the pinyon pine/juniper site (March 21, 2011 to March 28, 2012). A comparison of tipping bucket versus bulk precipitation data showed that total precipitation measured by the tipping bucket rain gauges was 17 to 20 percent lower than the bulk precipitation gauges. These differences were most likely the result of the unheated tipping bucket precipitation gauges not measuring frozen precipitation as accurately as the bulk precipitation gauges. In this one-year study, ET exceeded precipitation at both study sites because estimates of ET included precipitation that fell during the winter of 2010-2011 prior to EC instrumentation and the precipitation gauges started

Decisions, decisions: analysis of age, cohort, and time of testing on framing of risky decision options.

Science.gov (United States)

Mayhorn, Christopher B; Fisk, Arthur D; Whittle, Justin D

2002-01-01

Decision making in uncertain environments is a daily challenge faced by adults of all ages. Framing decision options as either gains or losses is a common method of altering decision-making behavior. In the experiment reported here, benchmark decision-making data collected in the 1970s by Tversky and Kahneman (1981, 1988) were compared with data collected from current samples of young and older adults to determine whether behavior was consistent across time. Although differences did emerge between the benchmark and the present samples, the effect of framing on decision behavior was relatively stable. The present findings suggest that adults of all ages are susceptible to framing effects. Results also indicated that apparent age differences might be better explained by an analysis of cohort and time-of-testing effects. Actual or potential applications of this research include an understanding of how framing might influence the decision-making behavior of people of all ages in a number of applied contexts, such as product warning interactions and medical decision scenarios.

Mesa redonda sobre nuevos modelos organizativos en la gestión de proyectos digitales

OpenAIRE

Taladriz Mas, Margarita; Magriñá Contreras, Marta; Martín Marichal, Carmen; Cabo Rigol, Mercé; X Workshop Rebiun sobre proyectos digitales. Valencia, 7-8 Octubre de 2010

2010-01-01

Mesa redonda dentro del X Workshop Rebiun sobre proyectos digitales, celebrado en Valencia, 7-8 Ocubre de 2010, sobre: Nuevos modelos organizativos en la gestión de proyectos digitales. Moderador: José Manuel Barrueco (UV). Intervienen: Margarita Taladriz Mas(UC3M), Marta Magriñá Contreras (UNIRIOJA), Carmen Martín Marichal (ULPGC) y Mercé Cabo Rigol (UPF).

Accretion onto CO White Dwarfs using MESA

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Wanda; Starrfield, Sumner

2018-06-01

The nature of type Ia Supernovae (SNe Ia) progenitor systems and their underlying mechanism are not well understood. There are two competing progenitor scenarios: the single-degenerate scenario wherein a white dwarf (WD) star accretes material from a companion star, reaching the Chandrasekhar mass limit; and, the double-degenerate scenario wherein two WDs merge. In this study, we investigate the single-degenerate scenario by accretion onto carbon-oxygen (CO) WDs using the Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA). We vary the WD mass, composition of the accreting material, and accretion rate in our models. Mixing between the accreted material and the WD core is informed by multidimensional studies that suggest occurance after thermonuclear runaway (TNR) ensues. We compare the accretion of solar composition material onto CO WDs with the accretion of mixed solar and core material after TNR. As many of our models eject less material than accreted, our study supports that accretion onto CO WDs is a feasible channel for SNe I progenitors.

Fuzzy rationality and parameter elicitation in decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Nikolova, Natalia D.; Tenekedjiev, Kiril I.

2010-07-01

It is widely recognised by decision analysts that real decision-makers always make estimates in an interval form. An overview of techniques to find an optimal alternative among such with imprecise and interval probabilities is presented. Scalarisation methods are outlined as most appropriate. A proper continuation of such techniques is fuzzy rational (FR) decision analysis. A detailed representation of the elicitation process influenced by fuzzy rationality is given. The interval character of probabilities leads to the introduction of ribbon functions, whose general form and special cases are compared with the p-boxes. As demonstrated, approximation of utilities in FR decision analysis does not depend on the probabilities, but the approximation of probabilities is dependent on preferences.

Strategic decision analysis applied to borehole seismology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Menke, M.M.; Paulsson, B.N.P.

1994-01-01

Strategic Decision Analysis (SDA) is the evolving body of knowledge on how to achieve high quality in the decision that shapes an organization's future. SDA comprises philosophy, process concepts, methodology, and tools for making good decisions. It specifically incorporates many concepts and tools from economic evaluation and risk analysis. Chevron Petroleum Technology Company (CPTC) has applied SDA to evaluate and prioritize a number of its most important and most uncertain R and D projects, including borehole seismology. Before SDA, there were significant issues and concerns about the value to CPTC of continuing to work on borehole seismology. The SDA process created a cross-functional team of experts to structure and evaluate this project. A credible economic model was developed, discrete risks and continuous uncertainties were assessed, and an extensive sensitivity analysis was performed. The results, even applied to a very restricted drilling program for a few years, were good enough to demonstrate the value of continuing the project. This paper explains the SDA philosophy concepts, and process and demonstrates the methodology and tools using the borehole seismology project example. SDA is useful in the upstream industry not just in the R and D/technology decisions, but also in major exploration and production decisions. Since a major challenge for upstream companies today is to create and realize value, the SDA approach should have a very broad applicability

Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA): Convective Boundaries, Element Diffusion, and Massive Star Explosions

OpenAIRE

Paxton, Bill; Schwab, Josiah; Bauer, Evan B.; Bildsten, Lars; Blinnikov, Sergei; Duffell, Paul; Farmer, R.; Goldberg, Jared A.; Marchant, Pablo; Sorokina, Elena; Thoul, Anne; Townsend, Richard H. D.; Timmes, F. X.

2017-01-01

We update the capabilities of the software instrument Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics (MESA) and enhance its ease of use and availability. Our new approach to locating convective boundaries is consistent with the physics of convection, and yields reliable values of the convective core mass during both hydrogen and helium burning phases. Stars with $M

Decision analysis and rational countermeasures in radiation protection

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinkko, K.

1991-09-01

During the past few years several international organizations (ICRP, IAEA, OECD/NEA), in revising their radiation protection principles, have emphasized the importance of the rationalization and planning of intervention after a nuclear accident. An accident itself and the introduction of protective action entails risks to the people affected, monetary costs and social disruption. Thus protective actions, often including objectives which are difficult to control simultaneously, cannot be undertaken without careful contemplation and consideration of the essential consequences of decisions. Often during an accident there is not enough time for careful consideration. Decision analysis is an analyzing and thought guiding method for the definition of objectives and comparison of options. It is an appropriate methodology assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. The planning of intervention with the help of decision analysis is portion of the preparation for accident situations. In this report one of the techniques of decision analysis, multi-attribute utility analysis, is presented, as concerns its application in planning protective actions in the event of radiation accidents. (orig.)

Metabolic Syndrome Derived from Principal Component Analysis and Incident Cardiovascular Events: The Multi Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC).

Science.gov (United States)

Agarwal, Subhashish; Jacobs, David R; Vaidya, Dhananjay; Sibley, Christopher T; Jorgensen, Neal W; Rotter, Jerome I; Chen, Yii-Der Ida; Liu, Yongmei; Andrews, Jeanette S; Kritchevsky, Stephen; Goodpaster, Bret; Kanaya, Alka; Newman, Anne B; Simonsick, Eleanor M; Herrington, David M

2012-01-01

Background. The NCEP metabolic syndrome (MetS) is a combination of dichotomized interrelated risk factors from predominantly Caucasian populations. We propose a continuous MetS score based on principal component analysis (PCA) of the same risk factors in a multiethnic cohort and compare prediction of incident CVD events with NCEP MetS definition. Additionally, we replicated these analyses in the Health, Aging, and Body composition (Health ABC) study cohort. Methods and Results. We performed PCA of the MetS elements (waist circumference, HDL, TG, fasting blood glucose, SBP, and DBP) in 2610 Caucasian Americans, 801 Chinese Americans, 1875 African Americans, and 1494 Hispanic Americans in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA) cohort. We selected the first principal component as a continuous MetS score (MetS-PC). Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between MetS-PC and 5.5 years of CVD events (n = 377) adjusting for age, gender, race, smoking and LDL-C, overall and by ethnicity. To facilitate comparison of MetS-PC with the binary NCEP definition, a MetS-PC cut point was chosen to yield the same 37% prevalence of MetS as the NCEP definition (37%) in the MESA cohort. Hazard ratio (HR) for CVD events were estimated using the NCEP and Mets-PC-derived binary definitions. In Cox proportional models, the HR (95% CI) for CVD events for 1-SD (standard deviation) of MetS-PC was 1.71 (1.54-1.90) (P definitions were compared, HR for CVD events was 2.34 (1.91-2.87) for MetS-PC versus 1.79 (1.46-2.20) for NCEP MetS. In the Health ABC cohort, in a fully adjusted model, MetS-PC per 1-SD (Health ABC) remained associated with CVD events (HR = 1.21, 95%CI 1.12-1.32) overall, and for each ethnicity, Caucasian (HR = 1.24, 95%CI 1.12-1.39) and African Americans (HR = 1.16, 95%CI 1.01-1.32). Finally, when using a binary definition of MetS-PC (cut point 0.505) designed to match the NCEP definition in terms of prevalence in the Health ABC cohort (35

Integrating technical analysis and public values in risk-based decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bohnenblust, Hans; Slovic, Paul

1998-01-01

Simple technical analysis cannot capture the complex scope of preferences or values of society and individuals. However, decision making needs to be sustained by formal analysis. The paper describes a policy framework which incorporates both technical analysis and aspects of public values. The framework can be used as a decision supporting tool and helps decision makers to make more informed and more transparent decisions about safety issues

The Laramide Mesa formation and the Ojo de Agua caldera, southeast of the Cananea copper mining district, Sonora, Mexico

Science.gov (United States)

Cox, Dennis P.; Miller, Robert J.; Woodbourne, Keith L.

2006-01-01

The Mesa Formation extends from Cananea, Mexico, southeast to the Sonora River and is the main host rock of Laramide porphyry copper deposits in the Cananea District and at the Alacran porphyry prospect to the east. The Mesa consists of two members-a lower andesite and an upper dacite. The lowest part of the dacite member is a crystal tuff about 100 m thick. This tuff is the outfall of a caldera centered near the village of Ojo de Agua, dated by 40Ar/39Ar at 65.8 Ma ?0.4. The Ojo de Agua Caldera is about 9 km in diameter and is filled by a light gray biotite dacite tuff with abundant flattened pumice fragments. The volume of the caldera is estimated to be 24 km3.

Multi-criteria decision analysis for use in transport decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

the recent years that besides the social costs and benefits associated with transport other impacts that are more difficult to monetise should also have influence on the decision making process. This is in many developed countries realised in the transport planning, which takes into account a wide range......, however, commonly agreed that the final decision making concerning transport infrastructure projects in many cases will depend on other aspects besides the monetary ones assessed in a socio-economic analysis. Nevertheless, an assessment framework such as the Danish one (DMT, 2003) does not provide any...... specific guidelines on how to include the strategic impacts; it merely suggests describing the impacts verbally and keeping them in mind during the decision process. A coherent, well-structured, flexible, straight forward evaluation method, taking into account all the requirements of a transport...

Profesor Luis López de Mesa. Reminiscencias

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

J. Hernando Ordoñez

1998-12-01

Full Text Available

Personalidad

El 18 de Octubre pasado se cumplieron 30 años de la muerte del Profesor Luis López de Mesa, fecha luctuosa para la cultura americana. Con tal motivo quiero revivir su memoria y rendirle un cálido homenaje de gratitud y admiración, haciendo reminiscencias de hechos y anécdotas vividas gracias a la cordial amistad que me permitió apreciar la grandeza de su personalidad, que brilló con luz propia en todos los campos del saber humano, que lo llevó a escalar sitio de honor entre los grandes humanistas del continente.

Sería un atrevimiento de mi parte, dada la poquedad de mis recursos literarios, intentar una biografía del profesor López de Mesa, tanto más, cuando eminentes autores han escrito obras magistrales relatando y exaltando las múltiples facetas de su excepcional cultura.

Mi propósito es modesto: no he de referirme a su actuación como fundador del Colegio Máximo de las Academias Colombianas, ni de su hija “Bahía Solano”, ni del brillo con que desempeñó cargos tan importantes como Rector de la Universidad Nacional, Ministro de Educación Nacional y de Relaciones Exteriores, miembro de las más prestigiosas sociedades científicas y culturales, tanto nacionales como extranjeras, autor de numerosas obras a cual más eruditas, originales y profundas, y tantos títulos, cargos y actuaciones, que me sería largo enumerar.

La sencillez y su modestia fueron admirables, como han sido las de los grandes genios. No conoció la vanidad ni el orgullo. Casi me atrevería a pensar que no se dio cuenta de su propia grandeza, a pesar de los múltiples y más variados elogios, honores y homenajes que le rendían tanto en el ambiente nacional como en el internacional, donde contaba con la admiración de los más brillantes exponentes de la cultura, que, distantes, se admiran recíprocamente, como de lejos se divisan y se contemplan las más elevadas cumbres de las monta

Benefit-Risk Analysis for Decision-Making: An Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R

2016-12-01

The analysis of benefit and risk is an important aspect of decision-making throughout the drug lifecycle. In this work, the use of a benefit-risk analysis approach to support decision-making was explored. The proposed approach builds on the qualitative US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) approach to include a more explicit analysis based on international standards and guidance that enables aggregation and comparison of benefit and risk on a common basis and a lifecycle focus. The approach is demonstrated on six decisions over the lifecycle (e.g., accelerated approval, withdrawal, and traditional approval) using two case studies: natalizumab for multiple sclerosis (MS) and bedaquiline for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

Predicted Geology of the Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley Phase II Drilling Initiative

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2009-01-01

Pahute Mesa-Oasis Valley (PM-OV) Phase II drilling will occur within an area that encompasses approximately 117 square kilometers (45 square miles) near the center of the Phase I PM-OV hydrostratigraphic framework model area. The majority of the investigation area lies within dissected volcanic terrain between Pahute Mesa on the north and Timber Mountain on the south. This area consists of a complex distribution of volcanic tuff and lava of generally rhyolitic composition erupted from nearby calderas and related vents. Several large buried volcanic structural features control the distribution of volcanic units in the investigation area. The Area 20 caldera, including its structural margin and associated caldera collapse collar, underlies the northeastern portion of the investigation area. The southern half of the investigation area lies within the northwestern portion of the Timber Mountain caldera complex, including portions of the caldera moat and resurgent dome. Another significant structural feature in the area is the west-northwest-trending Northern Timber Mountain moat structural zone, which bisects the northern portion of the investigation area and forms a structural bench. The proposed wells of the UGTA Phase II drilling initiative can be grouped into four generalized volcanic structural domains based on the stratigraphic distribution and structural position of the volcanic rocks in the upper 1,000 meters (3,300 feet) of the crust, a depth that represents the approximate planned total depths of the proposed wells

Variation in the annual average radon concentration measured in homes in Mesa County, Colorado

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rood, A.S.; George, J.L.; Langner, G.H. Jr.

1990-04-01

The purpose of this study is to examine the variability in the annual average indoor radon concentration. The TMC has been collecting annual average radon data for the past 5 years in 33 residential structures in Mesa County, Colorado. This report is an interim report that presents the data collected up to the present. Currently, the plans are to continue this study in the future. 62 refs., 3 figs., 12 tabs

Characterisation of Al{sub 0.52}In{sub 0.48}P mesa p-i-n photodiodes for X-ray photon counting spectroscopy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Butera, S., E-mail: S.Butera@sussex.ac.uk; Lioliou, G.; Barnett, A. M. [Semiconductor Materials and Device Laboratory, School of Engineering and Informatics, University of Sussex, Brighton BN1 9QT (United Kingdom); Krysa, A. B. [EPSRC National Centre for III-V Technologies, University of Sheffield, Mappin Street, Sheffield S1 3JD (United Kingdom)

2016-07-14

Results characterising the performance of thin (2 μm i-layer) Al{sub 0.52}In{sub 0.48}P p{sup +}-i-n{sup +} mesa photodiodes for X-ray photon counting spectroscopy are reported at room temperature. Two 200 μm diameter and two 400 μm diameter Al{sub 0.52}In{sub 0.48}P p{sup +}-i-n{sup +} mesa photodiodes were studied. Dark current results as a function of applied reverse bias are shown; dark current densities <3 nA/cm{sup 2} were observed at 30 V (150 kV/cm) for all the devices analysed. Capacitance measurements as a function of applied reverse bias are also reported. X-ray spectra were collected using 10 μs shaping time, with the device illuminated by an {sup 55}Fe radioisotope X-ray source. Experimental results showed that the best energy resolution (FWHM) achieved at 5.9 keV was 930 eV for the 200 μm Al{sub 0.52}In{sub 0.48}P diameter devices, when reverse biased at 15 V. System noise analysis was also carried out, and the different noise contributions were computed.

Propuesta de mejora continua para la mesa de ayuda de la UGPP

OpenAIRE

2012-01-01

El propósito del Mejoramiento Continuo del Servicio (MCS) es alinear y realinear continuamente los servicios de TI con las necesidades cambiantes del negocio por medio de la identificación e implementación de mejoras a los servicios de TI que respaldan los Procesos del Negocio. Para esta Organización en particular se cumplieron tres etapas: La primera un diagnóstico del estado actual de proceso de mesa de ayuda, de la herramienta de apoyo a la gestión de incidentes y al equipo humano de sopo...

Mesa NTMS 10 x 20 quadrangle area. Supplemental data report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koller, G.R.

1980-01-01

This data report presents supplemental analytical results for stream sediments and ground water. The samples were collected as part of the SRL-NURE reconnaissance in the National Topographic Map Series (NTMS) Mesa 1 0 x 2 0 quadrnangle. Results are reported for 24 elements (Ag, As, Ba, Be, Ca, Co, Cr, Cu, K, Li, Mg, Mo, Nb, Ni, P, Pb, Se, Sn, Sr, Th, W, Y, Zn, and extractable U) in sediments and 31 elements (Ag, Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Ca, Ce, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nb, Ni, P, Sc, Se, Si, Sr, Th, Ti, V, Y, Zn, and Zr) as well as pH, alkalinity, and conductivity in ground water

Stormwater Pollution Prevention Plan - TA-60 Roads and Grounds Facility and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sandoval, Leonard Frank [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2018-01-31

This Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan (SWPPP) was developed in accordance with the provisions of the Clean Water Act (33 U.S.C. §§1251 et seq., as amended), and the Multi-Sector General Permit for Storm Water Discharges Associated with Industrial Activity (U.S. EPA, June 2015) issued by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) for the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System (NPDES) and using the industry specific permit requirements for Sector P-Land Transportation and Warehousing as a guide. This SWPPP applies to discharges of stormwater from the operational areas of the TA-60 Roads and Grounds and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area at Los Alamos National Laboratory. Los Alamos National Laboratory (also referred to as LANL or the “Laboratory”) is owned by the Department of Energy (DOE), and is operated by Los Alamos National Security, LLC (LANS). Throughout this document, the term “facility” refers to the TA-60 Roads and Grounds and Associated Sigma Mesa Staging Area. The current permit expires at midnight on June 4, 2020.

Spectral investigation of hot-spot and cavity resonance effects on the terahertz radiation emitted from high-Tc superconducting Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ single crystal mesa structures

Science.gov (United States)

Kadowaki, Kazuo; Watanabe, Chiharu; Minami, Hidetoshi; Yamamoto, Takashi; Kashiwagi, Takanari; Klemm, Richard

2014-03-01

Terahertz (THz) electromagnetic radiation emitted from high-Tc superconducting Bi2Sr2CaCu2O8+δ mesa structures in the case of single mesa and series-connected mesas is investigated by the FTIR spectroscopic technique while observing its temperature distribution simultaneously by a SiC photoluminescence technique. Changing the bias level, sudden jumps of the hot-spot position were clearly observed. Although the radiation intensity changes drastically associated with the jump of the hot spot position, the frequency is unaffected as long as the voltage per junction is kept constant. Since the frequency of the intense radiation satisfies the cavity resonance condition, we confirmed that the cavity resonance is of primarily importance for the synchronization of whole intrinsic Josephson junctions in the mesa for high power radiation. This work was supported in part by the Grant-in-Aid for challenging Exploratory Research, the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science & Technology (MEXT).

'Black star': uma mutação somática natural da uva fina de mesa cv. Brasil

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sergio Ruffo Roberto

2012-09-01

Full Text Available A uva fina de mesa 'Black Star', originada de uma mutação somática da uva cv. Brasil em Marialva-PR, é descrita quanto às suas principais características físico-químicas e produtivas. Suas bagas, com sementes, apresentam formato elipsoide alongado com coloração vermelho-escura, tendendo ao preto durante a maturação plena. O ciclo, o desempenho produtivo e a suscetibilidade às doenças fúngicas assemelham-se aos da cv. Itália. Durante a maturação plena, apresenta teor médio de sólidos solúveis de 14ºBrix, 0,6% de ácido tartárico e índice de maturação de 21. Trata-se de nova cultivar de uva fina de mesa com potencial de cultivo no Brasil.

DECISION ANALYSIS OF INCINERATION COSTS IN SUPERFUND SITE REMEDIATION

Science.gov (United States)

This study examines the decision-making process of the remedial design (RD) phase of on-site incineration projects conducted at Superfund sites. Decisions made during RD affect the cost and schedule of remedial action (RA). Decision analysis techniques are used to determine the...

A framework for sensitivity analysis of decision trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamiński, Bogumił; Jakubczyk, Michał; Szufel, Przemysław

2018-01-01

In the paper, we consider sequential decision problems with uncertainty, represented as decision trees. Sensitivity analysis is always a crucial element of decision making and in decision trees it often focuses on probabilities. In the stochastic model considered, the user often has only limited information about the true values of probabilities. We develop a framework for performing sensitivity analysis of optimal strategies accounting for this distributional uncertainty. We design this robust optimization approach in an intuitive and not overly technical way, to make it simple to apply in daily managerial practice. The proposed framework allows for (1) analysis of the stability of the expected-value-maximizing strategy and (2) identification of strategies which are robust with respect to pessimistic/optimistic/mode-favoring perturbations of probabilities. We verify the properties of our approach in two cases: (a) probabilities in a tree are the primitives of the model and can be modified independently; (b) probabilities in a tree reflect some underlying, structural probabilities, and are interrelated. We provide a free software tool implementing the methods described.

A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

1991-01-01

An Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical decision, because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing and subsequent repository design. The assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and convinced the Department of Energy to adopt the top-ranked option as the preferred ESF design

Sociolingüística y etnografía: análisis de interacciones en la Mesa de grupos auto-gestionados

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Heras Monner Sans, Ana Inés

2014-01-01

Full Text Available [es] Presentamos un análisis de un dispositivo de reflexión sobre la práctica auto-gestionada denominado “Mesa Colectiva”,conformado por representantes de seis organizaciones de Argentina. Nuestro análisis busca responder: ¿Qué formas asume la construcción de conocimiento en la Mesa Colectiva?¿Cuáles son los contenidos que las organizaciones construyen para interpelar su acción colectiva? Aportamos una perspectiva poco trabajada en lo que refiere a la auto gestión,ya que, en tanto los grupos auto-gestionados se conforman como espacios de acción política, sus prácticas e interacciones no resultan fáciles de documentar y sistematizar.Quienes escribimos este artículo somos participantes en la Mesa (pertenecemos a una de las organizaciones participantesy también en la institución que formuló el proyecto de investigación. Este doble posicionamiento nos permite construir conocimiento en colaboración, sistematizarlo y analizarlo, poniéndolo a disposición para la discusión a través de diversos canales de comunicación (multimedia, performances,encuentros abiertos. Además, nuestro aporte es original en tanto tomamos una perspectiva sociolingüística combinada con la etnografía, metodológica y teóricamente,para analizar el aprendizaje. Nuestro análisis da cuenta deque hay una estrecha relación entre la Mesa Colectiva como dispositivo, los géneros discursivos que se construyen entre los participantes, y los contenidos que se van elaborando acerca de la autonomía como proyecto. Creemos aportar un punto de partida innovador para analizar la relación entre los contenidos que sustentan a la autonomía como proyecto y las formas que asumen esos contenidos en las prácticas de reflexión e interacción de los grupos auto-gestionados.

El Profesor López de Mesa o la Fe en el Valor de las Ideas.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaime Posada Diaz

1998-12-01

Full Text Available

En estos meses, desde finales de 1997, los sectores cultos del país han venido pensando en conmemorar los treinta años del fallecimiento, en Medellín, del profesor Luis López de Mesa. Esta noche las Academias Colombianas se congregan para rendir homenaje a la memoria de quien fue miembro titular de la mayoría de ellas, en todas las cuales supo afianzar los rasgos de su personalidad sorprendente y respetada.
Analizar un sistema de pensamiento tan versátil y complejo como el del profesor Luis López de Mesa sería faena de largo tiempo. De ahí que prudente, en ocasión como la de esta noche, sea reparar en aspectos concretos.

En buena parte de las páginas que va a leer el Presidente del colegio Máximo usará los verbos en presente. Una manera de reconocer la vigencia, la actualidad, de las tesis del reconocido erudito.

El profesor legó sus archivos a la Universidad de Antioquia que ha publicado varios libros con parte de esos materiales. En uno de ellos se presenta, al comienzo, una interpretación que se acoge como portada a las palabras que van a escucharse . Es la siguiente :

“Cultor de las letras, científico, diplomático, expositor excepcional en el campo político y en de las disciplinas profesionales, orador majestuoso con un insigne dominio del don de la palabra, novelista, ensayista, investigador de las ciencias sociales, director universitario, fue el Profesor López de Mesa figura cimera de la inteligencia colombiana y rector admirable de su espíritu. Símbolo intelectual y moral de la generación del centenario, descolló en medio de figuras tan sobresalientes como las de Enrique Olaya Herrera, Alfonso López, Laureano Gómez, Aquilino Villegas, los hermanos Nieto Caballero, entre tantos varones ilustres”...

A decision analysis of an exploratory studies facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkhofer, M.W.; Gnirk, P.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that an Exploratory Studied Facility (ESF) is planned to support the characterization of a potential site for a high-level nuclear waste repository at Yucca Mountain, NV. The selection of a design for the ESF is a critical characterization decision because the ESF design may affect the accuracy of characterization testing an constrains subsequent repository design. To assist the design process, a comparative evaluation was conducted to rank 34 alternative ESF-repository designs. The evaluation relied on techniques from formal decision analysis, including decision trees and multiattribute utility analysis (MUA). The results helped to identify favorable design features and enabled the Department of Energy to adopt an improved ESF design

Factors Controlling Pre-Columbian and Early Historic Maize Productivity in the American Southwest, Part 2: The Chaco Halo, Mesa Verde, Pajarito Plateau/Bandelier, and Zuni Archaeological Regions

Science.gov (United States)

Benson, L.V.

2011-01-01

Chemical and nutrient analyses of 471 soil samples from 161 sites within four archaeological regions (Pajarito Plateau/Bandelier, Zuni, Mesa Verde, and the Chaco Halo) were combined with historical climate data in order to evaluate the agricultural productivity of each region. In addition, maize productivity and field-life calculations were performed using organic-nitrogen (N) values from the upper 50 cm of soil in each region and a range (1-3%/year) of N-mineralization rates. The endmember values of this range were assumed representative of dry and wet climate states. With respect to precipitation and heat, the Pajarito Plateau area has excellent agricultural potential; the agricultural potentials of the Zuni and Mesa Verde regions are good; and the agricultural potential of the Chaco Halo is poor. Calculations of N mineralization and field life indicate that Morfield Valley in Mesa Verde should be able to provide 10 bu/ac of maize for decades (without the addition of N) when organic N-mineralization rates exceed 2%. Productivity and field-life potential decrease in the following order: Zuni, Mesa Verde, Bandelier, Chaco Halo. The Chaco Halo is very unproductive; e. g., 10 bushels per acre can be achieved within the Halo only from soils having the highest organic N concentration (third quartile) and which undergo the highest rate (3%) of N mineralization. ?? 2010 US Government.

an analysis of perceived prominent decision making areas in ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

p2333147

Keywords: Game ranch management, decision making, risk perception, springbuck. ABSTRACT ..... environment, herd management (herd structure) and marketing and client satisfaction .... Prospect theory: An analysis of decision under risk.

The MESA polarimetry chain and the status of its double scattering polarimeter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aulenbacher, K.; Bartolomé, P. Aguar; Molitor, M.; Tioukine, V.

2013-01-01

We plan to have two independent polarimetry systems at MESA based on totally different physical processes. A first one tries to minimize the systematic uncertainties in double polarized Mo/ller scattering, which is to be achieved by stored hydrogen atoms in an atomic trap (Hydro-Mo/ller-Polarimeter). The other one relies on the equality of polarizing and analyzing power which allows to measure the effective analyzing power of a polarimeter with very high accuracy. Since the status of Hydro-Mo/ller is presented in a separate paper we concentrate on the double scattering polarimeter in this article

GIS surface effects archive of underground nuclear detonations conducted at Yucca Flat and Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nevada

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grasso, D.N.

2001-01-01

This report presents a new comprehensive, digital archive of more than 40 years of geologic surface effects maps produced at individual detonation sites throughout the Yucca Flat and Pahute Mesa nuclear testing areas of the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada. The Geographic Information System (GIS) surface effects map archive on CD-ROM (this report) comprehensively documents the surface effects of underground nuclear detonations conducted at two of the most extensively used testing areas of the Nevada Test Site. Between 1951 and 1992, numerous investigators of the U.S. Geological Survey, the Los Alamos National Laboratory, the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, and the Defense Threat Reduction Agency meticulously mapped the surface effects caused by underground nuclear testing. Their work documented the effects of more than seventy percent of the underground nuclear detonations conducted at Yucca Flat and all of the underground nuclear detonations conducted at Pahute Mesa

Decision Analysis Tools for Volcano Observatories

Science.gov (United States)

Hincks, T. H.; Aspinall, W.; Woo, G.

2005-12-01

Staff at volcano observatories are predominantly engaged in scientific activities related to volcano monitoring and instrumentation, data acquisition and analysis. Accordingly, the academic education and professional training of observatory staff tend to focus on these scientific functions. From time to time, however, staff may be called upon to provide decision support to government officials responsible for civil protection. Recognizing that Earth scientists may have limited technical familiarity with formal decision analysis methods, specialist software tools that assist decision support in a crisis should be welcome. A review is given of two software tools that have been under development recently. The first is for probabilistic risk assessment of human and economic loss from volcanic eruptions, and is of practical use in short and medium-term risk-informed planning of exclusion zones, post-disaster response, etc. A multiple branch event-tree architecture for the software, together with a formalism for ascribing probabilities to branches, have been developed within the context of the European Community EXPLORIS project. The second software tool utilizes the principles of the Bayesian Belief Network (BBN) for evidence-based assessment of volcanic state and probabilistic threat evaluation. This is of practical application in short-term volcano hazard forecasting and real-time crisis management, including the difficult challenge of deciding when an eruption is over. An open-source BBN library is the software foundation for this tool, which is capable of combining synoptically different strands of observational data from diverse monitoring sources. A conceptual vision is presented of the practical deployment of these decision analysis tools in a future volcano observatory environment. Summary retrospective analyses are given of previous volcanic crises to illustrate the hazard and risk insights gained from use of these tools.

Completion Report for Well ER-EC-14, Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2013-03-05

709.6 m of Tertiary volcanic rocks. The stratigraphy and general lithology were not as expected due to the position of Well ER-EC-14 relative to the buried caldera margins of the Timber Mountain caldera complex. The well is located inside the Rainier Mesa caldera, but outside the younger Ammonia Tanks caldera. On November 5, 2012, a preliminary fluid level in the shallow piezometer string was measured at the depth of 311.8 m. This water level depth was taken before installation of the bridge plug (to be placed within the main completion casing to separate the two slotted zones). Well development, hydrologic testing, and sampling, will be conducted at a later date. No tritium above levels detectable by field methods were encountered in this hole. All Fluid Management Plan (FMP) requirements for Well ER-EC-14 were met. Analysis of monitoring samples and FMP confirmatory samples indicated that fluids generated during drilling at Well ER-EC-14 met the FMP criteria for discharge to an unlined sump or designated infiltration area. All sanitary and hydrocarbon waste generated was properly handled and disposed of.

Seasonal Variations in Relative Weight of Lake Trout (Salvelinus namaycush), Kokanee Salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), Rainbow Trout (Onocorhynchus mykiss), and Brown Trout (Salmo trutta) in Blue Mesa Reservoir, Colorado

OpenAIRE

Midas, Madeline; Williams, Asia; Cooper, Cindy; Courtney, Michael

2013-01-01

Blue Mesa Reservoir is the largest body of water in Colorado and is located on the western slope of the Rocky Mountains at an elevation of 7520 feet. Blue Mesa Reservoir contains recreationally important populations of lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush), kokanee salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka), rainbow trout (Onocorhynchus mykiss), and brown trout (Salmo trutta). A management challenge in recent years has been the overpopulation of lake trout, which has led to a steep decline in abundance of kokan...

M.E.S.A, not Just a Seat at the Table: a Chicano Geology Student's Experience with Investigative Field Research

Science.gov (United States)

Ponce-Zepeda, M. M.

2011-12-01

The MESA (math, engineering, science achievement) program in California engages educationally disadvantaged students, primarily minority groups, providing the opportunity to excel in math and science and graduate with math-based degrees. MESA at East Los Angeles Community College selected me, a returning 24 year-old Chicano student, for the SCEC (Southern California Earthquake Center) summer internship at Utah State University (USU). The project coordinators assigned me to a group with three other undergraduate geology students from across the continent and from a variety of socioeconomic backgrounds to investigate geothermal systems in the Salton Trough and northern Utah. The peer-driven field work transformed student to investigator by forcing each participant to be responsible for the success of the entire group. In this environment, I rose to expectations along with my fellow interns managing a detailed field notebook, sampling, planning routes, level logger maintenance, and x-ray diffractometer analysis interpretation, among other things. Mentorship from and challenges proposed by the USU project advisor further built on this scaffolding of field experience. First hand fieldwork provides a battery of beneficial skills that many undergraduate geology students, especially at the two- year college level, rarely get an opportunity to participate in. The advantage of including non-traditional students from two- year colleges allows for a dynamic research network nationwide. Key sample collection by the East Los Angeles College (ELAC) Geology Club, a student- run club at an inner city community college, facilitated ongoing examination by collecting mud samples from gryphons and mudpots in the Salton Trough and testing temperature, pH levels, electrical conductivity, and total dissolved solids in the field. The samples were sent back to students at USU for further analysis. This collaborative effort is symbiotic as sharing the sampling responsibility allowed USU to

Decision forests for computer vision and medical image analysis

CERN Document Server

Criminisi, A

2013-01-01

This practical and easy-to-follow text explores the theoretical underpinnings of decision forests, organizing the vast existing literature on the field within a new, general-purpose forest model. Topics and features: with a foreword by Prof. Y. Amit and Prof. D. Geman, recounting their participation in the development of decision forests; introduces a flexible decision forest model, capable of addressing a large and diverse set of image and video analysis tasks; investigates both the theoretical foundations and the practical implementation of decision forests; discusses the use of decision for

The chert workshop of Tozal de la Mesa (Alins del Monte, Huesca, Spain and its exploitation in historical times

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marta Sánchez de la Torre

2016-09-01

The first approach to contextualize the recovered materials of Tozal de la Mesa workshop area has allowed determining an exploitation of the Garumnian cherts that has lasted until the late nineteenth century according to some recovered products (e.g., pottery and to oral sources.

Multi-Criteria Decision Making for a Spatial Decision Support System on the Analysis of Changing Risk

Science.gov (United States)

Olyazadeh, Roya; van Westen, Cees; Bakker, Wim H.; Aye, Zar Chi; Jaboyedoff, Michel; Derron, Marc-Henri

2014-05-01

Natural hazard risk management requires decision making in several stages. Decision making on alternatives for risk reduction planning starts with an intelligence phase for recognition of the decision problems and identifying the objectives. Development of the alternatives and assigning the variable by decision makers to each alternative are employed to the design phase. Final phase evaluates the optimal choice by comparing the alternatives, defining indicators, assigning a weight to each and ranking them. This process is referred to as Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM), Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE) or Multi-Criteria Analysis (MCA). In the framework of the ongoing 7th Framework Program "CHANGES" (2011-2014, Grant Agreement No. 263953) of the European Commission, a Spatial Decision Support System is under development, that has the aim to analyse changes in hydro-meteorological risk and provide support to selecting the best risk reduction alternative. This paper describes the module for Multi-Criteria Decision Making analysis (MCDM) that incorporates monetary and non-monetary criteria in the analysis of the optimal alternative. The MCDM module consists of several components. The first step is to define criteria (or Indicators) which are subdivided into disadvantages (criteria that indicate the difficulty for implementing the risk reduction strategy, also referred to as Costs) and advantages (criteria that indicate the favorability, also referred to as benefits). In the next step the stakeholders can use the developed web-based tool for prioritizing criteria and decision matrix. Public participation plays a role in decision making and this is also planned through the use of a mobile web-version where the general local public can indicate their agreement on the proposed alternatives. The application is being tested through a case study related to risk reduction of a mountainous valley in the Alps affected by flooding. Four alternatives are evaluated in

METHODOLOGY FOR ANALYSIS OF DECISION MAKING IN AIR NAVIGATION SYSTEM

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volodymyr Kharchenko

2011-03-01

Full Text Available Abstract. In the research of Air Navigation System as a complex socio-technical system the methodologyof analysis of human-operator's decision-making has been developed. The significance of individualpsychologicalfactors as well as the impact of socio-psychological factors on the professional activities of ahuman-operator during the flight situation development from normal to catastrophic were analyzed. On thebasis of the reflexive theory of bipolar choice the expected risks of decision-making by the Air NavigationSystem's operator influenced by external environment, previous experience and intentions were identified.The methods for analysis of decision-making by the human-operator of Air Navigation System usingstochastic networks have been developed.Keywords: Air Navigation System, bipolar choice, human operator, decision-making, expected risk, individualpsychologicalfactors, methodology of analysis, reflexive model, socio-psychological factors, stochastic network.

Field responses of predaceous arthropods to methyl salicylate: a meta-analysis and case study in cranberries

Science.gov (United States)

Methyl salicylate (MeSA) is an herbivore-induced plant volatile (HIPV) that has shown potential in attracting natural enemies. Here, we conducted a meta-analysis to evaluate the magnitude of natural enemy response to MeSA in the field, and tested its attractiveness to insect predators in commercial...

The need for consumer behavior analysis in health care coverage decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, A M; Rao, C P

1990-01-01

Demographic analysis has been the primary form of analysis connected with health care coverage decisions. This paper reviews past demographic research and shows the need to use behavioral analyses for health care coverage policy decisions. A behavioral model based research study is presented and a case is made for integrated study into why consumers make health care coverage decisions.

Using the Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework to guide analysis of nurses' clinical decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gillespie, Mary

2010-11-01

Nurses' clinical decision-making is a complex process that holds potential to influence the quality of care provided and patient outcomes. The evolution of nurses' decision-making that occurs with experience has been well documented. In addition, literature includes numerous strategies and approaches purported to support development of nurses' clinical decision-making. There has been, however, significantly less attention given to the process of assessing nurses' clinical decision-making and novice clinical educators are often challenged with knowing how to best support nurses and nursing students in developing their clinical decision-making capacity. The Situated Clinical Decision-Making framework is presented for use by clinical educators: it provides a structured approach to analyzing nursing students' and novice nurses' decision-making in clinical nursing practice, assists educators in identifying specific issues within nurses' clinical decision-making, and guides selection of relevant strategies to support development of clinical decision-making. A series of questions is offered as a guide for clinical educators when assessing nurses' clinical decision-making. The discussion presents key considerations related to analysis of various decision-making components, including common sources of challenge and errors that may occur within nurses' clinical decision-making. An exemplar illustrates use of the framework and guiding questions. Implications of this approach for selection of strategies that support development of clinical decision-making are highlighted. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Hydrostrat Model and Alternatives for Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainer Mesa-Shoshone Mountain, Nye County, Nevada

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NSTec Geotechnical Sciences Group

2007-03-01

The three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model for the Rainier Mesa-Shoshone Mountain Corrective Action Unit was completed in Fiscal Year 2006. The model extends from eastern Pahute Mesa in the north to Mid Valley in the south and centers on the former nuclear testing areas at Rainier Mesa, Aqueduct Mesa, and Shoshone Mountain. The model area also includes an overlap with the existing Underground Test Area Corrective Action Unit models for Yucca Flat and Pahute Mesa. The model area is geologically diverse and includes un-extended yet highly deformed Paleozoic terrain and high volcanic mesas between the Yucca Flat extensional basin on the east and caldera complexes of the Southwestern Nevada Volcanic Field on the west. The area also includes a hydrologic divide between two groundwater sub-basins of the Death Valley regional flow system. A diverse set of geological and geophysical data collected over the past 50 years was used to develop a structural model and hydrostratigraphic system for the model area. Three deep characterization wells, a magnetotelluric survey, and reprocessed gravity data were acquired specifically for this modeling initiative. These data and associated interpretive products were integrated using EarthVision{reg_sign} software to develop the three-dimensional hydrostratigraphic framework model. Crucial steps in the model building process included establishing a fault model, developing a hydrostratigraphic scheme, compiling a drill-hole database, and constructing detailed geologic and hydrostratigraphic cross sections and subsurface maps. The more than 100 stratigraphic units in the model area were grouped into 43 hydrostratigraphic units based on each unit's propensity toward aquifer or aquitard characteristics. The authors organized the volcanic units in the model area into 35 hydrostratigraphic units that include 16 aquifers, 12 confining units, 2 composite units (a mixture of aquifer and confining units), and 5 intrusive

Sociodemographic Correlates of Cognition in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, Annette L; Rapp, Stephen R; Luchsinger, José; Hill-Briggs, Felicia; Alonso, Alvaro; Gottesman, Rebecca; Lee, Hochang; Carnethon, Mercedes; Liu, Kiang; Williams, Kayleen; Sharrett, A Richey; Frazier-Wood, Alexis; Lyketsos, Constantine; Seeman, Teresa

2015-07-01

To describe the methodology utilized to evaluate cognitive function in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and to present preliminary results by age, sex, and race/ethnicity. Cross-sectional measurements of a prospective observational cohort. Residents of 6 U.S. communities free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (2000-02). 4,591 adults who completed the fifth MESA clinical examination in 2011-12; mean age 70.3 (SD: 9.5) years, 53.1% women, 40.7% non-Hispanic white, 26.4% non-Hispanic black, 21.4% Hispanic, and 11.5% Chinese. The cognitive battery consisted of the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (version 2) to evaluate global cognition, the Digit Symbol Code for processing speed and Digit Spans Forward and Backward to assess memory. Demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural covariates were also collected for descriptive statistics and multivariate modeling. Associations between socioeconomic factors and cognition revealed that age, race/ethnicity, education, occupational status, household income, health insurance type, household size, place of birth, years and generation in U.S., and the presence of the ApoE4 allele were significantly associated with performance on the cognitive tests, although patterns varied by specific test, racial/ethnicity, and sociocultural factors. As many of the influencing cultural and socioeconomic factors measured here are complex, multifactorial, and may not be adequately quantified, caution has been recommended with regard to comparison and interpretation of racial/ethnic group performance differences from these cross-sectional models. These data provide a baseline for future exams and more comprehensive longitudinal analyses of the contributions of subclinical and clinical diseases to cognitive function and decline. Copyright © 2015 American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Sociodemographic Correlates of Cognition in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA)

Science.gov (United States)

Fitzpatrick, Annette L.; Rapp, Stephen R.; Luchsinger, Jose; Hill-Briggs, Felicia; Alonso, Alvaro; Gottesman, Rebecca; Lee, Hochang; Carnethon, Mercedes; Liu, Kiang; Williams, Kayleen; Sharrett, A. Richey.; Frazier-Wood, Alexis; Lyketsos, Constantine; Seeman, Teresa

2015-01-01

Objectives To describe the methodology utilized to evaluate cognitive function in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA) and to present preliminary results by age, gender and race/ethnicity. Design Cross-sectional measurements of a prospective observational cohort. Setting Residents of 6 US communities free of cardiovascular disease at baseline (2000-02). Participants 4,591 adults who completed the 5th MESA clinical examination in 2011-12, mean age 70.3 (SD 9.5) years, 53.1% women, and 40.7% Non-Hispanic White, 26.4% Non-Hispanic Black, 21.4% Hispanic, and 11.5% Chinese. Measurements The cognitive battery consisted of the Cognitive Abilities Screening Instrument (version 2) to evaluate global cognition, the Digit Symbol Code for processing speed and Digit Spans Forward and Backward to assess memory. Demographic, socioeconomic, and cultural covariates were also collected for descriptive statistics and multivariate modeling. Results Associations between socio-economic factors and cognition revealed that age, race/ethnicity, education, occupational status, household income, health insurance type, household size, place of birth, years and generation in U.S., and the presence of the APOE4 allele were significantly associated with performance on the cognitive tests although patterns varied by specific test, racial/ethnicity, and socio-cultural factors. Conclusions As many of the influencing cultural and socioeconomic factors measured here are complex, multifactorial, and may not be adequately quantified, caution has been recommended with regard to comparison and interpretation of racial/ethnic group performance differences from these cross-sectional models. These data provide a baseline for future exams and more comprehensive longitudinal analyses of the contributions of subclinical and clinical diseases to cognitive function and decline. PMID:25704999

Best-estimate analysis and decision making under uncertainty

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orechwa, Y.

2004-01-01

In many engineering analyses of system safety the traditional reliance on conservative evaluation model calculations is being replaced with so called best-estimate analysis. These best-estimate analyses differentiate themselves from the traditional conservative analyses through two ingredients, namely realistic models and an account of the residual uncertainty associated with the model calculations. Best-estimate analysis, in the context of this paper, refers to the numerical evaluation of system properties of interest in situations where direct confirmatory measurements are not feasible. A decision with regard to the safety of the system is then made based on the computed numerical values of the system properties of interest. These situations generally arise in the design of systems that require computed and generally nontrivial extrapolations from the available data. In the case of nuclear reactors, examples are criticality of spent fuel pools, neutronic parameters of new advanced designs where insufficient material is available for mockup critical experiments and, the large break loss of coolant accident (LOCA). In this paper the case of LOCA, is taken to discuss the best-estimate analysis and decision making. Central to decision making is information. Thus, of interest is the source, quantity and quality of the information obtained in a best-estimate analysis, and used to define the acceptance criteria and to formulate a decision rule. This in effect expands the problem from the calculation of a conservative margin to a predefined acceptance criterion, to the formulation of a consistent decision rule and the computation of a test statistic for application of the decision rule. The latter view is a necessary condition for developing risk informed decision rules, and, thus, the relation between design basis analysis criteria and probabilistic risk assessment criteria is key. The discussion is in the context of making a decision under uncertainty for a reactor

Decision-making in irrigation networks: Selecting appropriate canal structures using multi-attribute decision analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hosseinzade, Zeinab; Pagsuyoin, Sheree A; Ponnambalam, Kumaraswamy; Monem, Mohammad J

2017-12-01

The stiff competition for water between agriculture and non-agricultural production sectors makes it necessary to have effective management of irrigation networks in farms. However, the process of selecting flow control structures in irrigation networks is highly complex and involves different levels of decision makers. In this paper, we apply multi-attribute decision making (MADM) methodology to develop a decision analysis (DA) framework for evaluating, ranking and selecting check and intake structures for irrigation canals. The DA framework consists of identifying relevant attributes for canal structures, developing a robust scoring system for alternatives, identifying a procedure for data quality control, and identifying a MADM model for the decision analysis. An application is illustrated through an analysis for automation purposes of the Qazvin irrigation network, one of the oldest and most complex irrigation networks in Iran. A survey questionnaire designed based on the decision framework was distributed to experts, managers, and operators of the Qazvin network and to experts from the Ministry of Power in Iran. Five check structures and four intake structures were evaluated. A decision matrix was generated from the average scores collected from the survey, and was subsequently solved using TOPSIS (Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution) method. To identify the most critical structure attributes for the selection process, optimal attribute weights were calculated using Entropy method. For check structures, results show that the duckbill weir is the preferred structure while the pivot weir is the least preferred. Use of the duckbill weir can potentially address the problem with existing Amil gates where manual intervention is required to regulate water levels during periods of flow extremes. For intake structures, the Neyrpic® gate and constant head orifice are the most and least preferred alternatives, respectively. Some advantages

PATIENT-CENTERED DECISION MAKING: LESSONS FROM MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR QUANTIFYING PATIENT PREFERENCES.

Science.gov (United States)

Marsh, Kevin; Caro, J Jaime; Zaiser, Erica; Heywood, James; Hamed, Alaa

2018-01-01

Patient preferences should be a central consideration in healthcare decision making. However, stories of patients challenging regulatory and reimbursement decisions has led to questions on whether patient voices are being considered sufficiently during those decision making processes. This has led some to argue that it is necessary to quantify patient preferences before they can be adequately considered. This study considers the lessons from the use of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for efforts to quantify patient preferences. It defines MCDA and summarizes the benefits it can provide to decision makers, identifies examples of MCDAs that have involved patients, and summarizes good practice guidelines as they relate to quantifying patient preferences. The guidance developed to support the use of MCDA in healthcare provide some useful considerations for the quantification of patient preferences, namely that researchers should give appropriate consideration to: the heterogeneity of patient preferences, and its relevance to decision makers; the cognitive challenges posed by different elicitation methods; and validity of the results they produce. Furthermore, it is important to consider how the relevance of these considerations varies with the decision being supported. The MCDA literature holds important lessons for how patient preferences should be quantified to support healthcare decision making.

Study of molecular-beam epitaxy growth on patterned GaAs (311)A substrates with different mesa height

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Gong, Q.; Nötzel, R.; Schönherr, H.-P.; Ploog, K.

2000-01-01

We report on the evolution of the growth front during molecular-beam epitaxy on GaAs (3 1 1)A substrates stripe patterned along the [ ] direction as a function of the mesa height. During growth (1 0 0) and (2 1 1)A facets are formed and expand at the corners near the two opposite lying ( )A and (1 1

75 FR 19422 - Notice of Closure of Airport Mesa/Carizzo Creek Shooting Area in Eastern San Diego County, CA

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-14

... DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR Bureau of Land Management [CACA 47740, LLCAD07000 L51030000] Notice of Closure of Airport Mesa/Carizzo Creek Shooting Area in Eastern San Diego County, CA AGENCY: Bureau of Land Management, Interior. ACTION: Notice of temporary closure. SUMMARY: The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) has...

Decision Analysis on Survey and SOil Investigation Problem in Power Engineering Consultant

OpenAIRE

Setyaman, Amy Maulany; Sunitiyoso, Yos

2013-01-01

The study aims to gather and organize information for decision making against the problems arising in Power Engineering Consultant's survey and soil investigation product due to new policy in production cost efficiency that is implemented in 2012. The study conducted using Kepner and Tragoe's analytical process that consisted of four stages analytical process such as situation analysis, problem analysis, decision making analysis and potential problem analysis. As for the decision making analy...

Do violations of the axioms of expected utility theory threaten decision analysis?

Science.gov (United States)

Nease, R F

1996-01-01

Research demonstrates that people violate the independence principle of expected utility theory, raising the question of whether expected utility theory is normative for medical decision making. The author provides three arguments that violations of the independence principle are less problematic than they might first appear. First, the independence principle follows from other more fundamental axioms whose appeal may be more readily apparent than that of the independence principle. Second, the axioms need not be descriptive to be normative, and they need not be attractive to all decision makers for expected utility theory to be useful for some. Finally, by providing a metaphor of decision analysis as a conversation between the actual decision maker and a model decision maker, the author argues that expected utility theory need not be purely normative for decision analysis to be useful. In short, violations of the independence principle do not necessarily represent direct violations of the axioms of expected utility theory; behavioral violations of the axioms of expected utility theory do not necessarily imply that decision analysis is not normative; and full normativeness is not necessary for decision analysis to generate valuable insights.

Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

1994-01-01

In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft{sup 2} of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies.

Decision analysis for INEL hazardous waste storage

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Page, L.A.; Roach, J.A.

1994-01-01

In mid-November 1993, the Idaho National Engineering Laboratory (INEL) Waste Reduction Operations Complex (WROC) Manager requested that the INEL Hazardous Waste Type Manager perform a decision analysis to determine whether or not a new Hazardous Waste Storage Facility (HWSF) was needed to store INEL hazardous waste (HW). In response to this request, a team was formed to perform a decision analysis for recommending the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. Personnel who participated in the decision analysis are listed in Appendix B. The results of the analysis indicate that the existing HWSF is not the best configuration for storage of INEL HW. The analysis detailed in Appendix C concludes that the best HW storage configuration would be to modify and use a portion of the Waste Experimental Reduction Facility (WERF) Waste Storage Building (WWSB), PBF-623 (Alternative 3). This facility was constructed in 1991 to serve as a waste staging facility for WERF incineration. The modifications include an extension of the current Room 105 across the south end of the WWSB and installing heating, ventilation, and bay curbing, which would provide approximately 1,600 ft 2 of isolated HW storage area. Negotiations with the State to discuss aisle space requirements along with modifications to WWSB operating procedures are also necessary. The process to begin utilizing the WWSB for HW storage includes planned closure of the HWSF, modification to the WWSB, and relocation of the HW inventory. The cost to modify the WWSB can be funded by a reallocation of funding currently identified to correct HWSF deficiencies

A decision analysis approach for risk management of near-earth objects

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Robert C.; Jones, Thomas D.; Chapman, Clark R.

2014-10-01

Risk management of near-Earth objects (NEOs; e.g., asteroids and comets) that can potentially impact Earth is an important issue that took on added urgency with the Chelyabinsk event of February 2013. Thousands of NEOs large enough to cause substantial damage are known to exist, although only a small fraction of these have the potential to impact Earth in the next few centuries. The probability and location of a NEO impact are subject to complex physics and great uncertainty, and consequences can range from minimal to devastating, depending upon the size of the NEO and location of impact. Deflecting a potential NEO impactor would be complex and expensive, and inter-agency and international cooperation would be necessary. Such deflection campaigns may be risky in themselves, and mission failure may result in unintended consequences. The benefits, risks, and costs of different potential NEO risk management strategies have not been compared in a systematic fashion. We present a decision analysis framework addressing this hazard. Decision analysis is the science of informing difficult decisions. It is inherently multi-disciplinary, especially with regard to managing catastrophic risks. Note that risk analysis clarifies the nature and magnitude of risks, whereas decision analysis guides rational risk management. Decision analysis can be used to inform strategic, policy, or resource allocation decisions. First, a problem is defined, including the decision situation and context. Second, objectives are defined, based upon what the different decision-makers and stakeholders (i.e., participants in the decision) value as important. Third, quantitative measures or scales for the objectives are determined. Fourth, alternative choices or strategies are defined. Fifth, the problem is then quantitatively modeled, including probabilistic risk analysis, and the alternatives are ranked in terms of how well they satisfy the objectives. Sixth, sensitivity analyses are performed in

Approximate reasoning in decision analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Gupta, M M; Sanchez, E

1982-01-01

The volume aims to incorporate the recent advances in both theory and applications. It contains 44 articles by 74 contributors from 17 different countries. The topics considered include: membership functions; composite fuzzy relations; fuzzy logic and inference; classifications and similarity measures; expert systems and medical diagnosis; psychological measurements and human behaviour; approximate reasoning and decision analysis; and fuzzy clustering algorithms.

Decision analysis for the selection of tank waste retrieval technology

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DAVIS, FREDDIE J.; DEWEESE, GREGORY C.; PICKETT, WILLIAM W.

2000-01-01

The objective of this report is to supplement the C-104 Alternatives Generation and Analysis (AGA) by providing a decision analysis for the alternative technologies described therein. The decision analysis used the Multi-Attribute Utility Analysis (MUA) technique. To the extent possible information will come from the AGA. Where data are not available, elicitation of expert opinion or engineering judgment is used and reviewed by the authors of the AGA. A key element of this particular analysis is the consideration of varying perspectives of parties interested in or affected by the decision. The six alternatives discussed are: sluicing; sluicing with vehicle mounted transfer pump; borehole mining; vehicle with attached sluicing nozzle and pump; articulated arm with attached sluicing nozzle; and mechanical dry retrieval. These are evaluated using four attributes, namely: schedule, cost, environmental impact, and safety

Metabolic Syndrome Derived from Principal Component Analysis and Incident Cardiovascular Events: The Multi Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA and Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Subhashish Agarwal

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Background. The NCEP metabolic syndrome (MetS is a combination of dichotomized interrelated risk factors from predominantly Caucasian populations. We propose a continuous MetS score based on principal component analysis (PCA of the same risk factors in a multiethnic cohort and compare prediction of incident CVD events with NCEP MetS definition. Additionally, we replicated these analyses in the Health, Aging, and Body composition (Health ABC study cohort. Methods and Results. We performed PCA of the MetS elements (waist circumference, HDL, TG, fasting blood glucose, SBP, and DBP in 2610 Caucasian Americans, 801 Chinese Americans, 1875 African Americans, and 1494 Hispanic Americans in the multiethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA cohort. We selected the first principal component as a continuous MetS score (MetS-PC. Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine the association between MetS-PC and 5.5 years of CVD events (n=377 adjusting for age, gender, race, smoking and LDL-C, overall and by ethnicity. To facilitate comparison of MetS-PC with the binary NCEP definition, a MetS-PC cut point was chosen to yield the same 37% prevalence of MetS as the NCEP definition (37% in the MESA cohort. Hazard ratio (HR for CVD events were estimated using the NCEP and Mets-PC-derived binary definitions. In Cox proportional models, the HR (95% CI for CVD events for 1-SD (standard deviation of MetS-PC was 1.71 (1.54–1.90 (P<0.0001 overall after adjusting for potential confounders, and for each ethnicity, HRs were: Caucasian, 1.64 (1.39–1.94, Chinese, 1.39 (1.06–1.83, African, 1.67 (1.37–2.02, and Hispanic, 2.10 (1.66-2.65. Finally, when binary definitions were compared, HR for CVD events was 2.34 (1.91–2.87 for MetS-PC versus 1.79 (1.46–2.20 for NCEP MetS. In the Health ABC cohort, in a fully adjusted model, MetS-PC per 1-SD (Health ABC remained associated with CVD events (HR=1.21, 95%CI 1.12–1.32 overall, and for each ethnicity, Caucasian (HR

Cutoff-mesa isolated rib optical waveguide for III-V heterostructure photonic integrated circuits

Science.gov (United States)

Vawter, G.A.; Smith, R.E.

1998-04-28

A cutoff mesa rib waveguide provides single-mode performance regardless of any deep etches that might be used for electrical isolation between integrated electrooptic devices. Utilizing a principle of a cutoff slab waveguide with an asymmetrical refractive index profile, single mode operation is achievable with a wide range of rib widths and does not require demanding etch depth tolerances. This new waveguide design eliminates reflection effects, or self-interference, commonly seen when conventional rib waveguides are combined with deep isolation etches and thereby reduces high order mode propagation and crosstalk compared to the conventional rib waveguides. 7 figs.

Using real options analysis to support strategic management decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Kabaivanov, Stanimir; Markovska, Veneta; Milev, Mariyan

2013-12-01

Decision making is a complex process that requires taking into consideration multiple heterogeneous sources of uncertainty. Standard valuation and financial analysis techniques often fail to properly account for all these sources of risk as well as for all sources of additional flexibility. In this paper we explore applications of a modified binomial tree method for real options analysis (ROA) in an effort to improve decision making process. Usual cases of use of real options are analyzed with elaborate study on the applications and advantages that company management can derive from their application. A numeric results based on extending simple binomial tree approach for multiple sources of uncertainty are provided to demonstrate the improvement effects on management decisions.

Applications of decision analysis and related techniques to industrial engineering problems at KSC

Science.gov (United States)

Evans, Gerald W.

1995-01-01

This report provides: (1) a discussion of the origination of decision analysis problems (well-structured problems) from ill-structured problems; (2) a review of the various methodologies and software packages for decision analysis and related problem areas; (3) a discussion of how the characteristics of a decision analysis problem affect the choice of modeling methodologies, thus providing a guide as to when to choose a particular methodology; and (4) examples of applications of decision analysis to particular problems encountered by the IE Group at KSC. With respect to the specific applications at KSC, particular emphasis is placed on the use of the Demos software package (Lumina Decision Systems, 1993).

A Costing Analysis for Decision Making Grid Model in Failure-Based Maintenance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Burhanuddin M. A.

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Background. In current economic downturn, industries have to set good control on production cost, to maintain their profit margin. Maintenance department as an imperative unit in industries should attain all maintenance data, process information instantaneously, and subsequently transform it into a useful decision. Then act on the alternative to reduce production cost. Decision Making Grid model is used to identify strategies for maintenance decision. However, the model has limitation as it consider two factors only, that is, downtime and frequency of failures. We consider third factor, cost, in this study for failure-based maintenance. The objective of this paper is to introduce the formulae to estimate maintenance cost. Methods. Fish bone analysis conducted with Ishikawa model and Decision Making Grid methods are used in this study to reveal some underlying risk factors that delay failure-based maintenance. The goal of the study is to estimate the risk factor that is, repair cost to fit in the Decision Making Grid model. Decision Making grid model consider two variables, frequency of failure and downtime in the analysis. This paper introduces third variable, repair cost for Decision Making Grid model. This approaches give better result to categorize the machines, reduce cost, and boost the earning for the manufacturing plant. Results. We collected data from one of the food processing factories in Malaysia. From our empirical result, Machine C, Machine D, Machine F, and Machine I must be in the Decision Making Grid model even though their frequency of failures and downtime are less than Machine B and Machine N, based on the costing analysis. The case study and experimental results show that the cost analysis in Decision Making Grid model gives more promising strategies in failure-based maintenance. Conclusions. The improvement of Decision Making Grid model for decision analysis with costing analysis is our contribution in this paper for

CRITICAL ANALYSIS OF THE RELIABILITY OF INTUITIVE MORAL DECISIONS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. V. Nadurak

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Purpose of the research is a critical analysis of the reliability of intuitive moral decisions. Methodology. The work is based on the methodological attitude of empirical ethics, involving the use of findings from empirical research in ethical reflection and decision making. Originality. The main kinds of intuitive moral decisions are identified: 1 intuitively emotional decisions (i.e. decisions made under the influence of emotions that accompanies the process of moral decision making; 2 decisions made under the influence of moral risky psychological aptitudes (unconscious human tendencies that makes us think in a certain way and make decisions, unacceptable from the logical and ethical point of view; 3 intuitively normative decisions (decisions made under the influence of socially learned norms, that cause evaluative feeling «good-bad», without conscious reasoning. It was found that all of these kinds of intuitive moral decisions can lead to mistakes in the moral life. Conclusions. Considering the fact that intuition systematically leads to erroneous moral decisions, intuitive reaction cannot be the only source for making such decisions. The conscious rational reasoning can compensate for weaknesses of intuition. In this case, there is a necessity in theoretical model that would structure the knowledge about the interactions between intuitive and rational factors in moral decisions making and became the basis for making suggestions that would help us to make the right moral decision.

Using multicriteria decision analysis during drug development to predict reimbursement decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Paul; Mauskopf, Josephine; Lebiecki, Jake; Kilburg, Anne

2014-01-01

Pharmaceutical companies design clinical development programs to generate the data that they believe will support reimbursement for the experimental compound. The objective of the study was to present a process for using multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) by a pharmaceutical company to estimate the probability of a positive recommendation for reimbursement for a new drug given drug and environmental attributes. The MCDA process included 1) selection of decisions makers who were representative of those making reimbursement decisions in a specific country; 2) two pre-workshop questionnaires to identify the most important attributes and their relative importance for a positive recommendation for a new drug; 3) a 1-day workshop during which participants undertook three tasks: i) they agreed on a final list of decision attributes and their importance weights, ii) they developed level descriptions for these attributes and mapped each attribute level to a value function, and iii) they developed profiles for hypothetical products 'just likely to be reimbursed'; and 4) use of the data from the workshop to develop a prediction algorithm based on a logistic regression analysis. The MCDA process is illustrated using case studies for three countries, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Spain. The extent to which the prediction algorithms for each country captured the decision processes for the workshop participants in our case studies was tested using a post-meeting questionnaire that asked the participants to make recommendations for a set of hypothetical products. The data collected in the case study workshops resulted in a prediction algorithm: 1) for the United Kingdom, the probability of a positive recommendation for different ranges of cost-effectiveness ratios; 2) for Spain, the probability of a positive recommendation at the national and regional levels; and 3) for Germany, the probability of a determination of clinical benefit. The results from the post

Decision Analysis for Metric Selection on a Clinical Quality Scorecard.

Science.gov (United States)

Guth, Rebecca M; Storey, Patricia E; Vitale, Michael; Markan-Aurora, Sumita; Gordon, Randolph; Prevost, Traci Q; Dunagan, Wm Claiborne; Woeltje, Keith F

2016-09-01

Clinical quality scorecards are used by health care institutions to monitor clinical performance and drive quality improvement. Because of the rapid proliferation of quality metrics in health care, BJC HealthCare found it increasingly difficult to select the most impactful scorecard metrics while still monitoring metrics for regulatory purposes. A 7-step measure selection process was implemented incorporating Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis, which is a systematic process that considers key criteria that must be satisfied in order to make the best decision. The decision analysis process evaluates what metrics will most appropriately fulfill these criteria, as well as identifies potential risks associated with a particular metric in order to identify threats to its implementation. Using this process, a list of 750 potential metrics was narrowed to 25 that were selected for scorecard inclusion. This decision analysis process created a more transparent, reproducible approach for selecting quality metrics for clinical quality scorecards. © The Author(s) 2015.

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: a novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Tsalatsanis, Athanasios; Hozo, Iztok; Vickers, Andrew; Djulbegovic, Benjamin

2010-09-16

Decision curve analysis (DCA) has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1), and analytical, deliberative process (system 2), thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat) vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary) and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may be intuitively more appealing to a decision-maker, particularly

Relationship of metabolic syndrome with incident aortic valve calcium and aortic valve calcium progression: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA).

Science.gov (United States)

Katz, Ronit; Budoff, Matthew J; Takasu, Junichiro; Shavelle, David M; Bertoni, Alain; Blumenthal, Roger S; Ouyang, Pamela; Wong, Nathan D; O'Brien, Kevin D

2009-04-01

Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has been associated with increased prevalence of aortic valve calcium (AVC) and with increased progression of aortic stenosis. The purpose of this study was to determine whether MetS is associated with increased risks for the development of new ("incident") AVC or for progression of established AVC as assessed by CT. The relationships of MetS or its components as well as of diabetes to risks for incident AVC or AVC progression were studied among participants with CT scans performed at baseline and at either year 2 or year 3 examinations in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Of 5,723 MESA participants meeting criteria for inclusion, 1,674 had MetS by Adult Treatment Panel III criteria, whereas 761 had diabetes. Among the 5,123 participants without baseline AVC, risks for incident AVC, adjusted for time between scans, age, sex, race/ethnicity, LDL cholesterol, lipid-lowering medications, and smoking, were increased significantly for MetS (odds ratio [OR] 1.67 [95% CI 1.21-2.31]) or diabetes (2.06 [1.39-3.06]). In addition, there was an increase in incident AVC risk with increasing number of MetS components. Similar results were found using the International Diabetes Federation MetS criteria. Among the 600 participants (10.5%) with baseline AVC, neither MetS nor diabetes was associated with AVC progression. In the MESA cohort, MetS was associated with a significant increase in incident ("new") AVC, raising the possibility that MetS may be a potential therapeutic target to prevent AVC development.

Preliminary Map of Landslide Deposits in the Mesa Verde National Park Area, Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Carrara, Paul E.

2009-01-01

This report presents a preliminary map of landslide deposits in the Mesa Verde National Park area (see map sheet) at a compilation scale of 1:50,000. Landslide is a general term for landforms produced by a wide variety of gravity-driven mass movements, including various types of flows, slides, topples and falls, and combinations thereof produced by the slow to rapid downslope transport of surficial materials or bedrock. The map depicts more than 200 landslides ranging in size from small (0.01 square miles) earthflows and rock slumps to large (greater than 0.50 square miles) translational slides and complex landslides (Varnes, 1978). This map has been prepared to provide a regional overview of the distribution of landslide deposits in the Mesa Verde area, and as such constitutes an inventory of landslides in the area. The map is suitable for regional planning to identify broad areas where landslide deposits and processes are concentrated. It should not be used as a substitute for detailed site investigations. Specific areas thought to be subject to landslide hazards should be carefully studied before development. Many of the landslides depicted on this map are probably stable as they date to the Pleistocene (approximately 1.8-0.011 Ma) and hence formed under a different climate regime. However, the recognition of these landslides is important because natural and human-induced factors can alter stability. Reduction of lateral support (by excavations or roadcuts), removal of vegetation (by fire or development), or an increase in pore pressure (by heavy rains) may result in the reactivation of landslides or parts of landslides.

The timing and origin of pre- and post-caldera volcanism associated with the Mesa Falls Tuff, Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field

Science.gov (United States)

Stelten, Mark E.; Champion, Duane E.; Kuntz, Mel A.

2018-01-01

We present new sanidine 40Ar/39Ar ages and paleomagnetic data for pre- and post-caldera rhyolites from the second volcanic cycle of the Yellowstone Plateau volcanic field, which culminated in the caldera-forming eruption of the Mesa Falls Tuff at ca. 1.3 Ma. These data allow for a detailed reconstruction of the eruptive history of the second volcanic cycle and provide new insights into the petrogenesis of rhyolite domes and flows erupted during this time period. 40Ar/39Ar age data for the biotite-bearing Bishop Mountain flow demonstrate that it erupted approximately 150 kyr prior to the Mesa Falls Tuff. Integrating 40Ar/39Ar ages and paleomagnetic data for the post-caldera Island Park rhyolite domes suggests that these five crystal-rich rhyolites erupted over a centuries-long time interval at 1.2905 ± 0.0020 Ma (2σ). The biotite-bearing Moonshine Mountain rhyolite dome was originally thought to be the downfaulted vent dome for the pre-caldera Bishop Mountain flow due to their similar petrographic and oxygen isotope characteristics, but new 40Ar/39Ar dating suggest that it erupted near contemporaneously with the Island Park rhyolite domes at 1.2931 ± 0.0018 Ma (2σ) and is a post-caldera eruption. Despite their similar eruption ages, the Island Park rhyolite domes and the Moonshine Mountain dome are chemically and petrographically distinct and are not derived from the same source. Integrating these new data with field relations and existing geochemical data, we present a petrogenetic model for the formation of the post-Mesa Falls Tuff rhyolites. Renewed influx of basaltic and/or silicic recharge magma into the crust at 1.2905 ± 0.0020 Ma led to [1] the formation of the Island Park rhyolite domes from the source region that earlier produced the Mesa Falls Tuff and [2] the formation of Moonshine Mountain dome from the source region that earlier produced the biotite-bearing Bishop Mountain flow. These magmas were stored in the crust for less than a few thousand

The Potential for Meta-Analysis to Support Decision Analysis in Ecology

Science.gov (United States)

Mengersen, Kerrie; MacNeil, M. Aaron; Caley, M. Julian

2015-01-01

Meta-analysis and decision analysis are underpinned by well-developed methods that are commonly applied to a variety of problems and disciplines. While these two fields have been closely linked in some disciplines such as medicine, comparatively little attention has been paid to the potential benefits of linking them in ecology, despite reasonable…

Armazenamento refrigerado da uva de mesa 'Romana' (A1105) cultivada sob cobertura plástica

OpenAIRE

Lulu, Jorge; Castro, Josalba V.; Pedro Júnior, Mário J.

2005-01-01

A videira é uma das principais fruteiras cultivadas em todo o mundo e atualmente a preferência por uvas do tipo "sem sementes" ou "apirênicas" vem aumentando gradativamente no mercado interno brasileiro. A cultivar 'Romana' (A1105) tem mostrado grande potencial como nova alternativa de uva de mesa apirênica na região de Jundiaí - SP. No entanto, a qualidade dos cachos tem sido afetada pela ocorrência de chuvas na época da colheita, propiciando a incidência de rachaduras nas bagas ("cracking")...

Use of decision analysis techniques to determine Hanford cleanup priorities

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fassbender, L.; Gregory, R.; Winterfeldt, D. von; John, R.

1992-01-01

In January 1991, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Richland Field Office, Westinghouse Hanford Company, and the Pacific Northwest Laboratory initiated the Hanford Integrated Planning Process (HIPP) to ensure that technically sound and publicly acceptable decisions are made that support the environmental cleanup mission at Hanford. One of the HIPP's key roles is to develop an understanding of the science and technology (S and T) requirements to support the cleanup mission. This includes conducting an annual systematic assessment of the S and T needs at Hanford to support a comprehensive technology development program and a complementary scientific research program. Basic to success is a planning and assessment methodology that is defensible from a technical perspective and acceptable to the various Hanford stakeholders. Decision analysis techniques were used to help identify and prioritize problems and S and T needs at Hanford. The approach used structured elicitations to bring many Hanford stakeholders into the process. Decision analysis, which is based on the axioms and methods of utility and probability theory, is especially useful in problems characterized by uncertainties and multiple objectives. Decision analysis addresses uncertainties by laying out a logical sequence of decisions, events, and consequences and by quantifying event and consequence probabilities on the basis of expert judgments

The value of decision tree analysis in planning anaesthetic care in obstetrics.

Science.gov (United States)

Bamber, J H; Evans, S A

2016-08-01

The use of decision tree analysis is discussed in the context of the anaesthetic and obstetric management of a young pregnant woman with joint hypermobility syndrome with a history of insensitivity to local anaesthesia and a previous difficult intubation due to a tongue tumour. The multidisciplinary clinical decision process resulted in the woman being delivered without complication by elective caesarean section under general anaesthesia after an awake fibreoptic intubation. The decision process used is reviewed and compared retrospectively to a decision tree analytical approach. The benefits and limitations of using decision tree analysis are reviewed and its application in obstetric anaesthesia is discussed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision analysis of shoreline protection under climate change uncertainty

Science.gov (United States)

Chao, Philip T.; Hobbs, Benjamin F.

1997-04-01

If global warming occurs, it could significantly affect water resource distribution and availability. Yet it is unclear whether the prospect of such change is relevant to water resources management decisions being made today. We model a shoreline protection decision problem with a stochastic dynamic program (SDP) to determine whether consideration of the possibility of climate change would alter the decision. Three questions are addressed with the SDP: (l) How important is climate change compared to other uncertainties?, (2) What is the economic loss if climate change uncertainty is ignored?, and (3) How does belief in climate change affect the timing of the decision? In the case study, sensitivity analysis shows that uncertainty in real discount rates has a stronger effect upon the decision than belief in climate change. Nevertheless, a strong belief in climate change makes the shoreline protection project less attractive and often alters the decision to build it.

Multiple Criteria Decision Analysis for Health Care Decision Making--An Introduction: Report 1 of the ISPOR MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force.

Science.gov (United States)

Thokala, Praveen; Devlin, Nancy; Marsh, Kevin; Baltussen, Rob; Boysen, Meindert; Kalo, Zoltan; Longrenn, Thomas; Mussen, Filip; Peacock, Stuart; Watkins, John; Ijzerman, Maarten

2016-01-01

Health care decisions are complex and involve confronting trade-offs between multiple, often conflicting, objectives. Using structured, explicit approaches to decisions involving multiple criteria can improve the quality of decision making and a set of techniques, known under the collective heading multiple criteria decision analysis (MCDA), are useful for this purpose. MCDA methods are widely used in other sectors, and recently there has been an increase in health care applications. In 2014, ISPOR established an MCDA Emerging Good Practices Task Force. It was charged with establishing a common definition for MCDA in health care decision making and developing good practice guidelines for conducting MCDA to aid health care decision making. This initial ISPOR MCDA task force report provides an introduction to MCDA - it defines MCDA; provides examples of its use in different kinds of decision making in health care (including benefit risk analysis, health technology assessment, resource allocation, portfolio decision analysis, shared patient clinician decision making and prioritizing patients' access to services); provides an overview of the principal methods of MCDA; and describes the key steps involved. Upon reviewing this report, readers should have a solid overview of MCDA methods and their potential for supporting health care decision making. Copyright © 2016. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Watson, S.R.; Hayward, G.M.

1982-03-01

In our interim report we gave a general review of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report we go on to consider examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and to discuss how two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) could be used to assist these tasks. The example decisions we have chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream. (U.K.)

Two hypothetical problems in radioactive waste management: a comparison of cost/benefit analysis and decision analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Watson, S R; Hayward, G M

1982-01-01

In our interim report a general review was given of the characteristics of three formal methods for aiding decision making in relation to the general problems posed in radioactive waste management. In this report, consideration is given to examples of the sort of proposals that the Environment Departments may be asked to review, and two of the formal decision aids (cost-benefit analysis and decision analysis) which could be used to assist these tasks are discussed. The example decisions chosen are the siting of an underground repository for intermediate-level wastes and the choice of a waste management procedure for an intermediate-level waste stream.

Risk analysis as a decision tool

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yadigaroglu, G.; Chakraborty, S.

1985-01-01

From 1983 - 1985 a lecture series entitled ''Risk-benefit analysis'' was held at the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH), Zurich, in cooperation with the Central Department for the Safety of Nuclear Installations of the Swiss Federal Agency of Energy Economy. In that setting the value of risk-oriented evaluation models as a decision tool in safety questions was discussed on a broad basis. Experts of international reputation from the Federal Republic of Germany, France, Canada, the United States and Switzerland have contributed to report in this joint volume on the uses of such models. Following an introductory synopsis on risk analysis and risk assessment the book deals with practical examples in the fields of medicine, nuclear power, chemistry, transport and civil engineering. Particular attention is paid to the dialogue between analysts and decision makers taking into account the economic-technical aspects and social values. The recent chemical disaster in the Indian city of Bhopal again signals the necessity of such analyses. All the lectures were recorded individually. (orig./HP) [de

Modelling elderly cardiac patients decision making using Cognitive Work Analysis: identifying requirements for patient decision aids.

Science.gov (United States)

Dhukaram, Anandhi Vivekanandan; Baber, Chris

2015-06-01

Patients make various healthcare decisions on a daily basis. Such day-to-day decision making can have significant consequences on their own health, treatment, care, and costs. While decision aids (DAs) provide effective support in enhancing patient's decision making, to date there have been few studies examining patient's decision making process or exploring how the understanding of such decision processes can aid in extracting requirements for the design of DAs. This paper applies Cognitive Work Analysis (CWA) to analyse patient's decision making in order to inform requirements for supporting self-care decision making. This study uses focus groups to elicit information from elderly cardiovascular disease (CVD) patients concerning a range of decision situations they face on a daily basis. Specifically, the focus groups addressed issues related to the decision making of CVD in terms of medication compliance, pain, diet and exercise. The results of these focus groups are used to develop high level views using CWA. CWA framework decomposes the complex decision making problem to inform three approaches to DA design: one design based on high level requirements; one based on a normative model of decision-making for patients; and the third based on a range of heuristics that patients seem to use. CWA helps in extracting and synthesising decision making from different perspectives: decision processes, work organisation, patient competencies and strategies used in decision making. As decision making can be influenced by human behaviour like skills, rules and knowledge, it is argued that patients require support to different types of decision making. This paper also provides insights for designers in using CWA framework for the design of effective DAs to support patients in self-management. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision Analysis Technique

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hammad Dabo Baba

2014-01-01

Full Text Available One of the most significant step in building structure maintenance decision is the physical inspection of the facility to be maintained. The physical inspection involved cursory assessment of the structure and ratings of the identified defects based on expert evaluation. The objective of this paper is to describe present a novel approach to prioritizing the criticality of physical defects in a residential building system using multi criteria decision analysis approach. A residential building constructed in 1985 was considered in this study. Four criteria which includes; Physical Condition of the building system (PC, Effect on Asset (EA, effect on Occupants (EO and Maintenance Cost (MC are considered in the inspection. The building was divided in to nine systems regarded as alternatives. Expert's choice software was used in comparing the importance of the criteria against the main objective, whereas structured Proforma was used in quantifying the defects observed on all building systems against each criteria. The defects severity score of each building system was identified and later multiplied by the weight of the criteria and final hierarchy was derived. The final ranking indicates that, electrical system was considered the most critical system with a risk value of 0.134 while ceiling system scored the lowest risk value of 0.066. The technique is often used in prioritizing mechanical equipment for maintenance planning. However, result of this study indicates that the technique could be used in prioritizing building systems for maintenance planning

Decision Analysis System for Selection of Appropriate Decontamination Technologies

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ebadian, M.A.; Boudreaux, J.F.; Chinta, S.; Zanakis, S.H.

1998-01-01

The principal objective for designing Decision Analysis System for Decontamination (DASD) is to support DOE-EM's endeavor to employ the most efficient and effective technologies for treating radiologically contaminated surfaces while minimizing personnel and environmental risks. DASD will provide a tool for environmental decision makers to improve the quality, consistency, and efficacy of their technology selection decisions. The system will facilitate methodical comparisons between innovative and baseline decontamination technologies and aid in identifying the most suitable technologies for performing surface decontamination at DOE environmental restoration sites

A regret theory approach to decision curve analysis: A novel method for eliciting decision makers' preferences and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vickers Andrew

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision curve analysis (DCA has been proposed as an alternative method for evaluation of diagnostic tests, prediction models, and molecular markers. However, DCA is based on expected utility theory, which has been routinely violated by decision makers. Decision-making is governed by intuition (system 1, and analytical, deliberative process (system 2, thus, rational decision-making should reflect both formal principles of rationality and intuition about good decisions. We use the cognitive emotion of regret to serve as a link between systems 1 and 2 and to reformulate DCA. Methods First, we analysed a classic decision tree describing three decision alternatives: treat, do not treat, and treat or no treat based on a predictive model. We then computed the expected regret for each of these alternatives as the difference between the utility of the action taken and the utility of the action that, in retrospect, should have been taken. For any pair of strategies, we measure the difference in net expected regret. Finally, we employ the concept of acceptable regret to identify the circumstances under which a potentially wrong strategy is tolerable to a decision-maker. Results We developed a novel dual visual analog scale to describe the relationship between regret associated with "omissions" (e.g. failure to treat vs. "commissions" (e.g. treating unnecessary and decision maker's preferences as expressed in terms of threshold probability. We then proved that the Net Expected Regret Difference, first presented in this paper, is equivalent to net benefits as described in the original DCA. Based on the concept of acceptable regret we identified the circumstances under which a decision maker tolerates a potentially wrong decision and expressed it in terms of probability of disease. Conclusions We present a novel method for eliciting decision maker's preferences and an alternative derivation of DCA based on regret theory. Our approach may

Neural systems analysis of decision making during goal-directed navigation.

Science.gov (United States)

Penner, Marsha R; Mizumori, Sheri J Y

2012-01-01

The ability to make adaptive decisions during goal-directed navigation is a fundamental and highly evolved behavior that requires continual coordination of perceptions, learning and memory processes, and the planning of behaviors. Here, a neurobiological account for such coordination is provided by integrating current literatures on spatial context analysis and decision-making. This integration includes discussions of our current understanding of the role of the hippocampal system in experience-dependent navigation, how hippocampal information comes to impact midbrain and striatal decision making systems, and finally the role of the striatum in the implementation of behaviors based on recent decisions. These discussions extend across cellular to neural systems levels of analysis. Not only are key findings described, but also fundamental organizing principles within and across neural systems, as well as between neural systems functions and behavior, are emphasized. It is suggested that studying decision making during goal-directed navigation is a powerful model for studying interactive brain systems and their mediation of complex behaviors. Copyright © 2011. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Applying rigorous decision analysis methodology to optimization of a tertiary recovery project

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wackowski, R.K.; Stevens, C.E.; Masoner, L.O.; Attanucci, V.; Larson, J.L.; Aslesen, K.S.

1992-01-01

This paper reports that the intent of this study was to rigorously look at all of the possible expansion, investment, operational, and CO 2 purchase/recompression scenarios (over 2500) to yield a strategy that would maximize net present value of the CO 2 project at the Rangely Weber Sand Unit. Traditional methods of project management, which involve analyzing large numbers of single case economic evaluations, was found to be too cumbersome and inaccurate for an analysis of this scope. The decision analysis methodology utilized a statistical approach which resulted in a range of economic outcomes. Advantages of the decision analysis methodology included: a more organized approach to classification of decisions and uncertainties; a clear sensitivity method to identify the key uncertainties; an application of probabilistic analysis through the decision tree; and a comprehensive display of the range of possible outcomes for communication to decision makers. This range made it possible to consider the upside and downside potential of the options and to weight these against the Unit's strategies. Savings in time and manpower required to complete the study were also realized

Navigating the science, technology, engineering, and mathematics pipeline: How social capital impacts the educational attainment of college-bound female students

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Rebecca Elizabeth

Despite the proliferation of women in higher education and the workforce, they have yet to achieve parity with men in many of the science, technology, engineering, and math (STEM) majors and careers. The gap is even greater in the representation of women from lower socioeconomic backgrounds. This study examined pre-college intervention strategies provided by the University of Southern California's Math, Engineering, Science Achievement (MESA) program, as well as the relationships and experiences that contributed to the success of underrepresented female high school students in the STEM pipeline. A social capital framework provided the backdrop to the study. This qualitative study takes an ethnographic approach, incorporating 11 interviews, 42 hours of observation, and document analysis to address the research questions: How does involvement in the MESA program impact female students' decisions to pursue a mathematics or science major in college? What is the role of significant others in supporting and encouraging student success? The findings revealed a continuous cycle of support for these students. The cycle started in the home environment, where parents were integral in the early influence on the students' decisions to pursue higher education. Relationships with teachers, counselors, and peers provided critical networks of support in helping these students to achieve their academic goals. Participation in the MESA program empowered the students and provided additional connections to knowledge-based resources. This study highlights the interplay among family, school, and the MESA program in the overall support of underrepresented female students in the STEM pipeline.

An extended data envelopment analysis for the decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiao-Li Meng

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Abstract Based on the CCR model, we propose an extended data envelopment analysis to evaluate the efficiency of decision making units with historical input and output data. The contributions of the work are threefold. First, the input and output data of the evaluated decision making unit are variable over time, and time series method is used to analyze and predict the data. Second, there are many sample decision making units, which are divided into several ordered sample standards in terms of production strategy, and the constraint condition consists of one of the sample standards. Furthermore, the efficiency is illustrated by considering the efficiency relationship between the evaluated decision making unit and sample decision making units from constraint condition. Third, to reduce the computation complexity, we introduce an algorithm based on the binary search tree in the model to choose the sample standard that has similar behavior with the evaluated decision making unit. Finally, we provide two numerical examples to illustrate the proposed model.

Decision Making in Nursing Practice: A Concept Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Johansen, Mary L; O'Brien, Janice L

2016-01-01

The study aims to gain an understanding of the concept of decision making as it relates to the nurse practice environment. Rodgers' evolutionary method on concept analysis was used as a framework for the study of the concept. Articles from 1952 to 2014 were reviewed from PsycINFO, Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL), JSTOR, PubMed, and Science Direct. Findings suggest that decision making in the nurse practice environment is a complex process, integral to the nursing profession. The definition of decision making, and the attributes, antecedents, and consequences, are discussed. Contextual factors that influence the process are also discussed. An exemplar is presented to illustrate the concept. Decision making in the nurse practice environment is a dynamic conceptual process that may affect patient outcomes. Nurses need to call upon ways of knowing to make sound decisions and should be self-reflective in order to develop the process further in the professional arena. The need for further research is discussed. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Landscape analyses of representativeness in the Serra de Mesa hydroelectric reservoir, Brazil

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cavalcanti, R. B; Meneses, P. R.; Ahern, F. J.

1997-01-01

A lake of some 1784 sq km, consisting mostly of savanna vegetation, riverine forest, tropical dry forest and agricultural land, will be created by the construction of the Serra de Mesa hydroelectric reservoir in central Brazil. The lake will contain about 300 islands of various sizes. RADARSAT imagery and LANDSAT TM data is being used to analyze and assess the representativeness of the island and lake edge habitats in relation to the original mix of habitats prior to the flooding. The LANDSAT TM data will provide complementarity, with RADARSAT coverage showing the relief and TM coverage documenting the vegetation classes. In the next phase of the project field data on the biological communities of the islands will be correlated with the landscape classification by remote sensing

Dating of Las Mesas Copper Age walled enclosure (La Fuente, Spain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Odriozola, Carlos P.

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The site of Las Mesas is located in the west bank of the Guadajira river (La Fuente, Badajoz, Spain. It covers a half hectare and is enclosed by a stone wall. Previous assessments based on site surveys suggested a general chronological span from Late Neolithic period (ca. 3600-2900 BC through the Copper Age (3rd millennium BC. Excavations revealed a well-constructed wall with bastions and a domestic space at the centre of the site with three occupational phases. Several functional areas and a votive pit are ascribed to the second phase. A deer antler located in a re-cut ritual pit associated to the second phase was dated by AMS-14C. Samples from a living floor assigned to the second phase (SU-9/10 and the basement of a kiln associated with the first phase (SU-18 was dated by optically stimulated luminescence (OSL using the single aliquot regenerative dose (SAR protocol on 90-160 m quartz grains. Luminescence profiling analysis of 7 samples taken throughout the archaeological stratigraphy was used to assess variations in luminescence behaviour and relative age through the sequence, using infrared-, optically –and thermally– stimulated luminescence (IRSL, OSL, TSL on poly-mineral and etched samples. Luminescence dating and profiling indicates that the upper archaeological layer (SU-1B probably dates to the Late Bronze Age (ca. 1000 BC, but that the sediments in the remainder of this section accumulated during the late Neolithic-Copper Age: the site was most probably inhabited between 3300 and 2900 BC. There were gaps in occupation between the Late Neolithic-Cooper Age phases (I & II, and between the Late Neolithic-Cooper Age phases and Late Bronze Age phase (II & III, indicating that the site was abandoned and reoccupied twice. The AMS-14C date on deer antler of 4254 ± 45 BP (3010-2675 cal BC is consisten with the OSL results for phase II, indicating that the pit was excavated at the beginning of the second occupational phase. Combined OSL

Investigations on the Structure Tectonics, Geophysics, Geochemistry, and Hydrocarbon Potential of the Black Mesa Basin, Northeastern Arizona

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barker, Colin; Carroll, Herbert; Erickson, Richard; George, Steve; Guo, Genliang; Reeves,T.K.; Sharma, Bijon; Szpakiewicz, Michael; Volk, Len

1999-04-27

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) has instituted a basin-analysis study program to encourage drilling in underexplored and unexplored areas and increase discovery rates for hydrocarbons by independent oil companies within the continental United States. The work is being performed at the DOE's National Institute for Petroleum and Energy Research (NIPER) in Bartlesville, Oklahoma, by the Exploration and Drilling Group within BDM-Oklahoma (BDM), the manager of the facility for DOE. Several low-activity areas in the Mid-Continent, west, and southwest were considered for the initial study area (Reeves and Carroll 1994a). The Black Mesa region in northwestern Arizona is shown on the U.S. Geological Survey 1995 oil and gas map of the United States as an undrilled area, adapted from Takahashi and Gautier 1995. This basin was selected by DOE s the site for the initial NIPER-BDM survey to develop prospects within the Lower-48 states (Reeves and Carroll 1994b).

LANL Institutional Decision Support By Process Modeling and Analysis Group (AET-2)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Booth, Steven Richard [Los Alamos National Laboratory

2016-04-04

AET-2 has expertise in process modeling, economics, business case analysis, risk assessment, Lean/Six Sigma tools, and decision analysis to provide timely decision support to LANS leading to continuous improvement. This capability is critical during the current tight budgetary environment as LANS pushes to identify potential areas of cost savings and efficiencies. An important arena is business systems and operations, where processes can impact most or all laboratory employees. Lab-wide efforts are needed to identify and eliminate inefficiencies to accomplish Director McMillan’s charge of “doing more with less.” LANS faces many critical and potentially expensive choices that require sound decision support to ensure success. AET-2 is available to provide this analysis support to expedite the decisions at hand.

Geohydrology and effects of water use in the Black Mesa area, Navajo and Hopi Indian Reservations, Arizona

Science.gov (United States)

Eychaner, James H.

1983-01-01

The N aquifer is the main source of water in the 5,400-square-mile Black Mesa area in the Navajo and Hopi Indian Reservations in northeastern Arizona. The N aquifer consists of the Navajo Sandstone and parts of the underlying Kayenta Formation and Wingate Sandstone of Jurassic and Triassic age. Maximum saturated thickness of the aquifer is about 1,050 feet in the northwestern part of the area, and the aquifer thins to extinction to the southeast. Water is under confined conditions in the central 3,300 square miles of the area. To the east, north, and west of Black Mesa, the aquifer is exposed at the surface, and water is unconfined. The aquifer was in equilibrium before about 1965. Recharge of about 13,000 acre-feet per year was balanced primarily by discharge near Moenkopi Wash and Laguna Creek and by evapotranspiration. At least 180 million acre-feet of water was in storage. The estimated average hydraulic conductivity of the aquifer is 0.65 foot per day. The confined storage coefficient is estimated to be about 0.0004 where the aquifer is thickest, and the estimated unconfined storage coefficient ranges from 0.10 to 0.15. Ground-water withdrawals that averaged 5,300 acre-feet per year from 1976 to 1979 have caused water levels to decline in wells in the confined part of the aquifer. Withdrawals include an average of 3,700 acre-feet per year to supply a coal-slurry pipeline from a coal mine on Black Mesa. Six observation wells equipped with water-level recorders have been used to monitor aquifer response. The water level in one well 32 miles south of the mine declined 17 feet from 1972 through 1979 and 3.5 feet during 1979. A mathematical model of the N aquifer was developed and calibrated for equilibrium and nonequilibrium conditions. The model was used in part to improve estimates of aquifer characteristics and the water budget, and it successfully reproduced the observed response of the aquifer through 1979. The model results indicate that about 95 percent of

Multi-criteria decision analysis with probabilistic risk assessment for the management of contaminated ground water

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khadam, Ibrahim M.; Kaluarachchi, Jagath J.

2003-01-01

Traditionally, environmental decision analysis in subsurface contamination scenarios is performed using cost-benefit analysis. In this paper, we discuss some of the limitations associated with cost-benefit analysis, especially its definition of risk, its definition of cost of risk, and its poor ability to communicate risk-related information. This paper presents an integrated approach for management of contaminated ground water resources using health risk assessment and economic analysis through a multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology introduces several important concepts and definitions in decision analysis related to subsurface contamination. These are the trade-off between population risk and individual risk, the trade-off between the residual risk and the cost of risk reduction, and cost-effectiveness as a justification for remediation. The proposed decision analysis framework integrates probabilistic health risk assessment into a comprehensive, yet simple, cost-based multi-criteria decision analysis framework. The methodology focuses on developing decision criteria that provide insight into the common questions of the decision-maker that involve a number of remedial alternatives. The paper then explores three potential approaches for alternative ranking, a structured explicit decision analysis, a heuristic approach of importance of the order of criteria, and a fuzzy logic approach based on fuzzy dominance and similarity analysis. Using formal alternative ranking procedures, the methodology seeks to present a structured decision analysis framework that can be applied consistently across many different and complex remediation settings. A simple numerical example is presented to demonstrate the proposed methodology. The results showed the importance of using an integrated approach for decision-making considering both costs and risks. Future work should focus on the application of the methodology to a variety of complex field conditions to

TESTING MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS FOR MORE TRANSPARENT RESOURCE-ALLOCATION DECISION MAKING IN COLOMBIA.

Science.gov (United States)

Castro Jaramillo, Hector Eduardo; Goetghebeur, Mireille; Moreno-Mattar, Ornella

2016-01-01

In 2012, Colombia experienced an important institutional transformation after the establishment of the Health Technology Assessment Institute (IETS), the disbandment of the Regulatory Commission for Health and the reassignment of reimbursement decision-making powers to the Ministry of Health and Social Protection (MoHSP). These dynamic changes provided the opportunity to test Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) for systematic and more transparent resource-allocation decision-making. During 2012 and 2013, the MCDA framework Evidence and Value: Impact on Decision Making (EVIDEM) was tested in Colombia. This consisted of a preparatory stage in which the investigators conducted literature searches and produced HTA reports for four interventions of interest, followed by a panel session with decision makers. This method was contrasted with a current approach used in Colombia for updating the publicly financed benefits package (POS), where narrative health technology assessment (HTA) reports are presented alongside comprehensive budget impact analyses (BIAs). Disease severity, size of population, and efficacy ranked at the top among fifteen preselected relevant criteria. MCDA estimates of technologies of interest ranged between 71 to 90 percent of maximum value. The ranking of technologies was sensitive to the methods used. Participants considered that a two-step approach including an MCDA template, complemented by a detailed BIA would be the best approach to assist decision-making in this context. Participants agreed that systematic priority setting should take place in Colombia. This work may serve as the basis to the MoHSP on its interest of setting up a systematic and more transparent process for resource-allocation decision-making.

Household consumption, female employment and fertility decisions; A microeconometric analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kalwij, A.S.

1999-01-01

This thesis is mainly concerned with a simultaneous analysis of the economic determinants of female employment and fertility decisions on a household level in the Netherlands. In particular, this thesis is interested in the role of the employment decisions of women in the observed behavior that

Frame-based safety analysis approach for decision-based errors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fan, Chin-Feng; Yihb, Swu

1997-01-01

A frame-based approach is proposed to analyze decision-based errors made by automatic controllers or human operators due to erroneous reference frames. An integrated framework, Two Frame Model (TFM), is first proposed to model the dynamic interaction between the physical process and the decision-making process. Two important issues, consistency and competing processes, are raised. Consistency between the physical and logic frames makes a TFM-based system work properly. Loss of consistency refers to the failure mode that the logic frame does not accurately reflect the state of the controlled processes. Once such failure occurs, hazards may arise. Among potential hazards, the competing effect between the controller and the controlled process is the most severe one, which may jeopardize a defense-in-depth design. When the logic and physical frames are inconsistent, conventional safety analysis techniques are inadequate. We propose Frame-based Fault Tree; Analysis (FFTA) and Frame-based Event Tree Analysis (FETA) under TFM to deduce the context for decision errors and to separately generate the evolution of the logical frame as opposed to that of the physical frame. This multi-dimensional analysis approach, different from the conventional correctness-centred approach, provides a panoramic view in scenario generation. Case studies using the proposed techniques are also given to demonstrate their usage and feasibility

Systematic maintenance analysis with decision support method and tool for optimizing maintenance programme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laakso, K.; Simola, K.; Dorrepaal, J.; Skogberg, P.

1999-01-01

This report describes an approach to evaluate the effectiveness of test and maintenance programs of technical systems used during several years. The method combines an analysis of the historical data on faults and repairs with an analysis of the history of periodic testing and preventive maintenance action programs. The application of the maintenance analysis from the methodological point of view in the reliability centered maintenance (RCM) project for Barsebaeck nuclear power plant is described. In order to limit the analysis resources, a method for ranking of objects for maintenance analysis is needed. Preliminary suggestions for changes in maintenance action programs are based on signals from simple maintenance indicators and qualitative analysis of underlying data on failures and maintenance. To facilitate generation of maintenance indicators, and make the maintenance analysis more efficient, a powerful and suitable data treatment tool is needed for analysis of the work order history. In the final maintenance decisions, additional decision criteria must be taken into account, and thus a more formal decision analysis is often needed for decision support. (au)

Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees.

Science.gov (United States)

Simon, Svenja; Guthke, Reinhard; Kamradt, Thomas; Frey, Oliver

2012-01-01

Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called "induction of decision trees" in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees' quality, we used stratified fivefold cross validation and chose the "best" tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

The use of decision analytic techniques in energy policy decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Seppaelaeinen, T.O.

1986-08-01

The report reviews decision analytic techniques and their applications to energy policy decision making. Decision analysis consists in techniques for structuring the essential elements of a decision problem and mathematical methods for ranking the alternatives from a set of simple judgments. Because modeling subjective judgments is characteristic of decision analysis, the models can incorporate qualitative factors and values, which escape traditional energy modeling. Decision analysis has been applied to choices among energy supply alternatives, siting energy facilities, selecting nuclear waste repositories, selecting research and development projects, risk analysis and prioritizing alternative energy futures. Many applications are done in universities and research institutions, but during the 70's the use of decision analysis has spread both to the public and the private sector. The settings where decision analysis has been applied range from aiding a single decision maker to clarifying opposing points of view. Decision analytic methods have also been linked with energy models. The most valuable result of decision analysis is the clarification of the problem at hand. Political decisions cannot be made solely on the basis of models, but models can be used to gain insight of the decision situation. Models inevitably simplify reality, so they must be regarded only as aids to judgment. So far there has been only one decision analysis of energy policy issues in Finland with actual political decision makers as participants. The experiences of this project and numerous foreign applications do however suggest that the decision analytic approach is useful in energy policy questions. The report presents a number of Finnish energy policy decisions where decision analysis might prove useful. However, the applicability of the methods depends crucially on the actual circumstances at hand

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Multiple Myeloma.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, Karthik; Domike, Reuben; Kazandjian, Dickran; Landgren, Ola; Blumenthal, Gideon M; Farrell, Ann; Pazdur, Richard; Woodcock, Janet

2018-01-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analysis. In this work, a quantitative benefit-risk analysis approach captures regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat multiple myeloma (MM). MM assessments have been based on endpoints such as time to progression (TTP), progression-free survival (PFS), and objective response rate (ORR) which are different than benefit-risk analysis based on overall survival (OS). Twenty-three FDA decisions on MM drugs submitted to FDA between 2003 and 2016 were identified and analyzed. The benefits and risks were quantified relative to comparators (typically the control arm of the clinical trial) to estimate whether the median benefit-risk was positive or negative. A sensitivity analysis was demonstrated using ixazomib to explore the magnitude of uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes were consistent and logical using this benefit-risk framework. © 2017 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

MESA models for the evolutionary status of the epsilon Aurigae disk-eclipsed binary system

Science.gov (United States)

Stencel, Robert E.; Gibson, Justus

2018-06-01

The brightest member of the class of disk-eclipsed binary stars is the Algol-like long-period binary, epsilon Aurigae (HD 31964, F0Iap + disk, http://adsabs.harvard.edu/abs/2016SPIE.9907E..17S ). Using MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics, version 9575), we have made an evaluation of its evolutionary state. We sought to satisfy several observational constraints, including: (1) requiring evolutionary tracks to pass close to the current temperature and luminosity of the primary star; (2) obtaining a period near the observed value of 27.1 years; (3) matching a mass function of 3.0; (4) concurrent Roche lobe overflow and mass transfer; (5) an isotopic ratio 12C / 13C = 5 and, (6) matching the interferometrically determined angular diameter. A MESA model starting with binary masses of 9.85 + 4.5 solar masses, with a 100 day initial period, produces a 1.2 + 10.6 solar masses result having a 547 day period, plus a single digit 12C / 13C ratio. These values were reached near an age of 20 Myr, when the donor star comes close to the observed luminosity and temperature for epsilon Aurigae A, as a post-RGB/pre-AGB star. Contemporaneously, the accretor then appears as an upper main sequence, early B-type star. This benchmark model can provide a basis for further exploration of this interacting binary, and other long period binary stars. This report has been submitted to MNRAS, along with a parallel investigation of mass transfer stream and disk sub-structure. The authors are grateful to the estate of William Herschel Womble for the support of astronomy at the University of Denver.

Accommodating complexity and human behaviors in decision analysis.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.; Siirola, John Daniel; Schoenwald, David Alan; Strip, David R.; Hirsch, Gary B.; Bastian, Mark S.; Braithwaite, Karl R.; Homer, Jack [Homer Consulting

2007-11-01

This is the final report for a LDRD effort to address human behavior in decision support systems. One sister LDRD effort reports the extension of this work to include actual human choices and additional simulation analyses. Another provides the background for this effort and the programmatic directions for future work. This specific effort considered the feasibility of five aspects of model development required for analysis viability. To avoid the use of classified information, healthcare decisions and the system embedding them became the illustrative example for assessment.

Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Sedlár

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It

Diseño y construcción de una mesa concentradora para la optimización del proceso de extracción de Oro en una empresa minera de Zaruma.

OpenAIRE

Aguilar Asanza, Mayra Fernanda; Corella Merizalde, Javier Oswaldo

2016-01-01

Este proyecto trata sobre el diseño y construcción de una mesa concentradora usando una tecnología limpia para la optimización del proceso de extracción de Oro, para una Planta de Beneficio de metales de la ciudad de Zaruma.Este diseño se basa en una mesa que mediante la vibración o movimiento, separa partículas minerales micrométricas de diferente peso específico, este proceso no utiliza ningún reactivo químico contaminante para el medio ambiente, solo necesita agua (H2o), el cual puede ser ...

A process to estimate net infiltration using a site-scale water-budget approach, Rainier Mesa, Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, 2002–05

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David W.; Moreo, Michael T.; Garcia, C. Amanda; Halford, Keith J.; Fenelon, Joseph M.

2017-08-29

This report documents a process used to estimate net infiltration from precipitation, evapotranspiration (ET), and soil data acquired at two sites on Rainier Mesa. Rainier Mesa is a groundwater recharge area within the Nevada National Security Site where recharged water flows through bedrock fractures to a deep (450 meters) water table. The U.S. Geological Survey operated two ET stations on Rainier Mesa from 2002 to 2005 at sites characterized by pinyon-juniper and scrub-brush vegetative cover. Precipitation and ET data were corrected to remove measurement biases and gap-filled to develop continuous datasets. Net infiltration (percolation below the root zone) and changes in root-zone water storage were estimated using a monthly water-balance model.Site-scale water-budget results indicate that the heavily-fractured welded-tuff bedrock underlying thin (water source for vegetation during dry periods. Annual precipitation during the study period ranged from fourth lowest (182 millimeters [mm]) to second highest (708 mm) on record (record = 55 years). Annual ET exceeded precipitation during dry years, indicating that the fractured-bedrock reservoir capacity is sufficient to meet atmospheric-evaporative demands and to sustain vegetation through extended dry periods. Net infiltration (82 mm) was simulated during the wet year after the reservoir was rapidly filled to capacity. These results support previous conclusions that preferential fracture flow was induced, resulting in an episodic recharge pulse that was detected in nearby monitoring wells. The occurrence of net infiltration only during the wet year is consistent with detections of water-level rises in nearby monitoring wells that occur only following wet years.

Functional analysis of a tomato salicylic acid methyl transferase and its role in synthesis of the flavor volatile methyl salicylate.

Science.gov (United States)

Tieman, Denise; Zeigler, Michelle; Schmelz, Eric; Taylor, Mark G; Rushing, Sarah; Jones, Jeffrey B; Klee, Harry J

2010-04-01

Methyl salicylate (MeSA) is a volatile plant secondary metabolite that is an important contributor to taste and scent of many fruits and flowers. It is synthesized from salicylic acid (SA), a phytohormone that contributes to plant pathogen defense. MeSA is synthesized by members of a family of O-methyltransferases. In order to elaborate the mechanism of MeSA synthesis in tomato, we screened a set of O-methyltransferases for activity against multiple substrates. An enzyme that specifically catalyzes methylation of SA, SlSAMT, as well as enzymes that act upon jasmonic acid and indole-3-acetic acid were identified. Analyses of transgenic over- and under-producing lines validated the function of SlSAMT in vivo. The SlSAMT gene was mapped to a position near the bottom of chromosome 9. Analysis of MeSA emissions from an introgression population derived from a cross with Solanum pennellii revealed a quantitative trait locus (QTL) linked to higher fruit methyl salicylate emissions. The higher MeSA emissions associate with significantly higher SpSAMT expression, consistent with SAMT gene expression being rate limiting for ripening-associated MeSA emissions. Transgenic plants that constitutively over-produce MeSA exhibited only slightly delayed symptom development following infection with the disease-causing bacterial pathogen, Xanthomonas campestris pv. vesicatoria (Xcv). Unexpectedly, pathogen-challenged leaves accumulated significantly higher levels of SA as well as glycosylated forms of SA and MeSA, indicating a disruption in control of the SA-related metabolite pool. Taken together, the results indicate that SlSAMT is critical for methyl salicylate synthesis and methyl salicylate, in turn, likely has an important role in controlling SA synthesis.

Water resources of the Santa Ysabel and Mesa Grande Indian Reservations, San Diego County, California

Science.gov (United States)

Freckleton, John R.

1981-01-01

The Santa Ysabel (consisting of three tracts) and Mesa Grande Indian Reservations are in north-central San Diego County, Calif. On both reservations fractured and weathered igneous and metamorphic rocks and alluvium are water bearing; however, no wells are known to derive their water entirely from alluvium. Well yields range from 2.5 to 250 gallons per minute. Springs occur where saturated fractured or weathered material intersects the land surface. Spring discharge ranged from 0 gallon per minute (November 1979) to 9.4 gallons per minute (November 1979). Few data are available for the surface water characteristics of the study area. One-time measurements of discharge at selected stream sites were made in late November 1979 and late May 1980; discharges ranged from less than 0.01 cubic foot per second to an estimated 3 cubic feet per second. Further study of the surface-water systems would provide a basis for estimating their development potential. The existing water-supply development on the Santa Ysabel Indian Reservation is adequate for the present residents. The Mesa Grande reservation was unoccupied in 1952, was reportedly unoccupied in November 1979, and has no developed water supply. Additional water can be developed for both reservations from the igneous and metamorphic rock, from presently undeveloped springs, and from perennial reaches of the larger streams. Except for excessive iron and sodium at some ground-water sites and excessive sodium at a few surface-water sites, the water is of suitable quality for domestic and agricultural use. (USGS)

Decision making analysis of walnut seedling production on a small ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The decision has to be made between those three alternatives aiming at achievement of optimal/best economic result for the family farm. Summarizing results obtained from the decision tree, simulation and sensitivity analysis, the optimal solution for the family farm should be to continue production of walnut seedlings with ...

An Investigation of Amphitheater-Headed Canyon Distribution, Morphology Variation, and Longitudinal Profile Controls in Escalante and Tarantula Mesa, Utah.

Science.gov (United States)

Ryan, A. J.; Whipple, K. X.

2014-12-01

Amphitheater-headed canyons are primarily distinguished from typical fluvial channels by their abrupt headwall terminations. A key goal in the study of river canyons is to establish a reliable link between form and formation processes. This is of particular significance for Mars, where, if such links can be established, amphitheater-headed canyons could be used to determine ancient erosion mechanisms and, by inference, climate conditions. Type examples in arid regions on Earth, such as in Escalante River, Utah, previously have been interpreted as products of groundwater seepage erosion. We investigate amphitheater-headed canyons in Escalante and Tarantula Mesa where variations in canyon head morphology may hold clues for the relative roles of rock properties and fluvial and groundwater processes. In lower Escalante, amphitheaters are only present where canyons have breached the Navajo Sandstone - Kayenta Formation contact. In some canyons, amphitheater development appears to have been inhibited by an abundance of coarse bedload. In Tarantula Mesa, canyons have a variety of headwalls, from amphitheaters to stepped knickzones. Headwall morphology distribution is directly related to the spatially variable presence of knickpoint-forming, fine-grained interbeds within cliff-forming sandstones. Amphitheaters only form where the sandstone unit is undisrupted by these interbeds. Finally, most canyons in Escalante and Tarantula Mesa, regardless of substrate lithology, amphitheater presence, or groundwater spring intensity, are well described by a slope-area power law relationship with regionally constant concavity and normalized steepness indices. This suggests that all channels here are subject to the same erosion rates, independent of groundwater weathering intensity. Thus: 1) variations in canyon headwall form do not necessary relate to differences in fluvial history, 2) stratigraphic variations are clearly of importance in sedimentary canyon systems, and 3) although

A decision analysis framework for stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management

Science.gov (United States)

Karjalainen, T. P.; Rossi, P. M.; Ala-aho, P.; Eskelinen, R.; Reinikainen, K.; Kløve, B.; Pulido-Velazquez, M.; Yang, H.

2013-12-01

Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) methods are increasingly used to facilitate both rigorous analysis and stakeholder involvement in natural and water resource planning. Decision-making in that context is often complex and multi-faceted with numerous trade-offs between social, environmental and economic impacts. However, practical applications of decision-support methods are often too technically oriented and hard to use, understand or interpret for all participants. The learning of participants in these processes is seldom examined, even though successful deliberation depends on learning. This paper analyzes the potential of an interactive MCDA framework, the decision analysis interview (DAI) approach, for facilitating stakeholder involvement and learning in groundwater management. It evaluates the results of the MCDA process in assessing land-use management alternatives in a Finnish esker aquifer area where conflicting land uses affect the groundwater body and dependent ecosystems. In the assessment process, emphasis was placed on the interactive role of the MCDA tool in facilitating stakeholder participation and learning. The results confirmed that the structured decision analysis framework can foster learning and collaboration in a process where disputes and diverse interests are represented. Computer-aided interviews helped the participants to see how their preferences affected the desirability and ranking of alternatives. During the process, the participants' knowledge and preferences evolved as they assessed their initial knowledge with the help of fresh scientific information. The decision analysis process led to the opening of a dialogue, showing the overall picture of the problem context and the critical issues for the further process.

Geology of the Horse Range Mesa quadrangle, Colorado

Science.gov (United States)

Cater, Fred W.; Bush, A.L.; Bell, Henry; Withington, C.F.

1953-01-01

The Horse Range Mesa quadrangle is one of eighteen 7 1/2-minute quadrangles covering the principal carnotite-producing area of southwestern Colorado. The geology of the quadrangles was mapped by the U.S. Geological Survey for the Atomic Energy Commission as part of a comprehensive study of carnotite deposits. The rocks exposed in the eighteen quadrangles consist of crystalline rocks of pre-Cambrian age and sedimentary rocks that range in age from late Paleozoic to Quaternary. Over much of the area the sedimentary rocks are flat lying, but in places the rocks are disrupted by high-angle faults, and northwest-trending folds. Conspicuous among the folds are large anticlines having cores of intrusive salt and gypsum. Most of the carnotite deposits are confined to the Salt Wash sandstone member of the Jurassic Morrison formation. Within this sandstone, most of the deposits are spottily distributed through an arcuate zone known as the "Uravan Mineral Belt". Individual deposits range in size from irregular masses containing only a few tons of ore to large, tabular masses containing many thousands of tons. The ore consists largely of sandstone selectively impregnated and in part replaced by uranium and vanadium minerals. Most of the deposits appear to be related to certain sedimentary strictures in sandstones of favorable composition.

Decision strategy research: system analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Carle, B.

2000-01-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described

Decision strategy research: system analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Carle, B

2000-07-01

The objective of SCK-CEN's R and D programme on decision strategies is (1) to develop theories, methods and software tools which help decision makers shape, analyse and understand their decisions; (2) to study group processes in decision making; (3) to apply theories, methods and tools in a context related to nuclear emergency preparedness and more generally to support in a context dealing with ionising radiation; (4) to increase SCK-CEN's knowledge on general emergency preparedness and to introduce SCK-CEN staff to computer supported decision techniques. Ongoing R and D has two components: (1) the study of the use of information and knowledge transfer in group decision processes, and more specific studying important factors when computers are used as information source and communication tool; and (2) the study of preference modelling individually and during group decision processes. Principal achievements in 1999 are described.

IMPLEMENTATION OF GIS-BASED MULTICRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS WITH VB IN ArcGIS

OpenAIRE

DERYA OZTURK; FATMAGUL BATUK

2011-01-01

This article focuses on the integration of multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) and geographical information systems (GIS) and introduces a tool, GIS–MCDA, written in visual basic in ArcGIS for GIS-based MCDA. The GIS–MCDA deals with raster-based data sets and includes standardization, weighting and decision analysis methods, and sensitivity analysis. Simple additive weighting, weighted product method, technique for order preference by similarity to ideal solution, compromise programming, a...

New England Foot and Mouth Disease Tabletop Exercise

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hullinger, P

2008-09-30

The Multiscale Epidemiologic/Economic Simulation and Analysis (MESA) Decision Support System (DSS) is the product of investments that began in FY05 by the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Science and Technology Directorate and continue today with joint funding by both DHS and the US Department of Agriculture (USDA). The DSS consists of a coupled epidemiologic/economic model, a standalone graphical user interface (GUI) that supports both model setup and post-analysis, and a Scenario Bank archive to store all content related to foreign animal disease (FAD) studies (Figure 1). The MESA epi model is an object-oriented, agent-based, stochastic, spatio-temporal simulator that parametrically models FAD outbreaks and response strategies from initial disease introduction to conclusion over local, regional, and national scales. Through its output database, the epi model couples to an economic model that calculates farm-level impacts from animal infections, responsive control strategies and loss of trade. The MESA architecture contains a variety of internal models that implement the major components of the epi simulation, including disease introduction, intra-herd spread, inter-herd spread (direct and indirect), detection, and various control strategies (movement restrictions, culling, vaccination) in a highly configurable and extensible fashion. MESA will produce both overall and daily summary statistics for the outbreak, epidemic curves, and costs associated with the outbreak. This information can be used to reconstruct and analyze the course of the outbreak. Geographical information produced by MESA can be used to produce maps and movies as visual aids to understand the distribution characteristics of a simulated outbreak.

Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M. [Helsinki Univ. of Technology, Otaniemi (Finland). System Analysis Lab.; Sinkko, K.; Ammann, M. [Radiation and Nuclear Safety Authority, Helsinki (Finland); Salo, A. [Lepolantie 54, Helsinki (Finland)

2000-03-01

This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be

Decision analysis interviews on protective actions in Finland supported by the RODOS system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haemaelaeinen, R.P.; Lindstedt, M.; Salo, A.

2000-03-01

This work was undertaken in order to study the utilisation of decision analysis interviews and of the RODOS system when planning protective actions in the case of a nuclear accident. Six decision analysis interview meetings were organised. Interviewees were competent national safety authorities and technical level decision-makers, i.e., those who are responsible for drawing up advice or making presentations of matters to decision-makers responsible for the practical implementation of the actions. The theme of the meetings was to study how uncertainties could be included in the decision-making process and whether pre-structured generic attributes and value trees would help this process and save time. The approach was to present a generic value tree, a decision table and a selected information package at the beginning of the interviews. The interviewees then examined the suggested value tree in order to ensure that no important factors have been omitted and they made changes when necessary. Also, the decision table was examined and altered by some participants and some of them asked for further information on some issues. But all in all the selected approach allowed for more time and effort to be allocated to value trade-offs and elicitation of risk attitudes. All information was calculated with the support of the RODOS system. Predefined value trees were found to ensure that all relevant factors are considered. The participants also felt that RODOS could provide the required information but, as in previous RODOS exercises, they found it more problematic to use decision analysis methods when planning countermeasures in the early phase of a nuclear accident. Furthermore, it was again noted that understanding the actual meaning 'soft' attributes, such as socio-psychological impacts, was not a straightforward issue. Consequently, the definition of attributes and training in advance would be beneficial. The incorporation of uncertainties also proved to be difficult and

Social influence and perceptual decision making: a diffusion model analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Germar, Markus; Schlemmer, Alexander; Krug, Kristine; Voss, Andreas; Mojzisch, Andreas

2014-02-01

Classic studies on social influence used simple perceptual decision-making tasks to examine how the opinions of others change individuals' judgments. Since then, one of the most fundamental questions in social psychology has been whether social influence can alter basic perceptual processes. To address this issue, we used a diffusion model analysis. Diffusion models provide a stochastic approach for separating the cognitive processes underlying speeded binary decisions. Following this approach, our study is the first to disentangle whether social influence on decision making is due to altering the uptake of available sensory information or due to shifting the decision criteria. In two experiments, we found consistent evidence for the idea that social influence alters the uptake of available sensory evidence. By contrast, participants did not adjust their decision criteria.

Nicotine replacement therapy decision based on fuzzy multi-criteria analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Tarmudi, Zamali; Matmali, Norfazillah; Abdullah, Mohd Lazim

2017-08-01

It has been observed that Nicotine Replacement Therapy (NRT) is one of the alternatives to control and reduce smoking addiction among smokers. Since the decision to choose the best NRT alternative involves uncertainty, ambiguity factors and diverse input datasets, thus, this paper proposes a fuzzy multi-criteria analysis (FMA) to overcome these issues. It focuses on how the fuzzy approach can unify the diversity of datasets based on NRT's decision-making problem. The analysis done employed the advantage of the cost-benefit criterion to unify the mixture of dataset input. The performance matrix was utilised to derive the performance scores. An empirical example regarding the NRT's decision-making problem was employed to illustrate the proposed approach. Based on the calculations, this analytical approach was found to be highly beneficial in terms of usability. It was also very applicable and efficient in dealing with the mixture of input datasets. Hence, the decision-making process can easily be used by experts and patients who are interested to join the therapy/cessation program.

Can streamlined multi-criteria decision analysis be used to implement shared decision making for colorectal cancer screening?

Science.gov (United States)

Dolan, James G.; Boohaker, Emily; Allison, Jeroan; Imperiale, Thomas F.

2013-01-01

Background Current US colorectal cancer screening guidelines that call for shared decision making regarding the choice among several recommended screening options are difficult to implement. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is an established methodology well suited for supporting shared decision making. Our study goal was to determine if a streamlined form of MCDA using rank order based judgments can accurately assess patients’ colorectal cancer screening priorities. Methods We converted priorities for four decision criteria and three sub-criteria regarding colorectal cancer screening obtained from 484 average risk patients using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) in a prior study into rank order-based priorities using rank order centroids. We compared the two sets of priorities using Spearman rank correlation and non-parametric Bland-Altman limits of agreement analysis. We assessed the differential impact of using the rank order-based versus the AHP-based priorities on the results of a full MCDA comparing three currently recommended colorectal cancer screening strategies. Generalizability of the results was assessed using Monte Carlo simulation. Results Correlations between the two sets of priorities for the seven criteria ranged from 0.55 to 0.92. The proportions of absolute differences between rank order-based and AHP-based priorities that were more than ± 0.15 ranged from 1% to 16%. Differences in the full MCDA results were minimal and the relative rankings of the three screening options were identical more than 88% of the time. The Monte Carlo simulation results were similar. Conclusion Rank order-based MCDA could be a simple, practical way to guide individual decisions and assess population decision priorities regarding colorectal cancer screening strategies. Additional research is warranted to further explore the use of these methods for promoting shared decision making. PMID:24300851

Mesa 10 x 20 NTMS area, Arizona: data report (abbreviated)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cook, J.R.; Koller, G.R.

1980-09-01

Surface sediment samples were collected at 713 sites, at a target sampling density of one site per 13 square kilometers. Ground water samples were collected at 365 sites. Neutron activation analysis results are given for uranium and 16 other elements in sediments, and for uranium and 9 other elements in ground water. Mass spectrometry results are given for helium in ground water. Field measurements and observations are reported for each site. Analytical data and field measurements are presented in tables and maps. Data from ground water and surface water sites include (1) water chemistry measurements (pH, conductivity, and alkalinity) (2) physical measurements where applicable (water temperature, well description, and scintillometer reading) and (3) elemental analyses (U, Al, Br, Cl, Dy, F, Mg, Mn, Na, and V). Helium analyses are given for ground water. Data from sediment sites include (1) stream water chemistry measurements from sites where water was available and (2) elemental analyses for sediment samples (U, Th, Hf, Al, Ce, Dy, Eu, Fe, La, Lu, Mn, Sc, Sm, Na, Ti, V, and Yb). Sample site descriptors (stream characteristics, vegetation, etc.) are also tabulated. Areal distribution maps, histograms, and cumulative frequency plots for most elements; U/Th, U/Hf, U/(Th+Hf), and U/La ratios; and scintillometer readings at sediment sample sites are included on the microfiche. The maximum uranium concentration found in sediments in the Mesa quadrangle was 36.6 ppM. The mean of the logarithms of the uranium concentrations was 0.58, which is equivalent to 3.8 ppM. High uranium concentrations are related to Precambrian granites; however, high log (U/Th) values appear to be related to Tertiary volcanic rocks

Closed-Loop Analysis of Soft Decisions for Serial Links

Science.gov (United States)

Lansdowne, Chatwin A.; Steele, Glen F.; Zucha, Joan P.; Schlesinger, Adam M.

2013-01-01

We describe the benefit of using closed-loop measurements for a radio receiver paired with a counterpart transmitter. We show that real-time analysis of the soft decision output of a receiver can provide rich and relevant insight far beyond the traditional hard-decision bit error rate (BER) test statistic. We describe a Soft Decision Analyzer (SDA) implementation for closed-loop measurements on single- or dual- (orthogonal) channel serial data communication links. The analyzer has been used to identify, quantify, and prioritize contributors to implementation loss in live-time during the development of software defined radios. This test technique gains importance as modern receivers are providing soft decision symbol synchronization as radio links are challenged to push more data and more protocol overhead through noisier channels, and software-defined radios (SDRs) use error-correction codes that approach Shannon's theoretical limit of performance.

The paramilitary speech Alias '39': suspects, offenders and redeemed in La Mesa, Cesar

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Gregorio Pérez V.

2016-08-01

Full Text Available The paper aims to characterize the paramilitary speech in the village of La Mesa, Cesar, whose practices of power-knowledge are not registered only in the coercive field, but extend to forms of communication, where the control and subjugation of the population, legitimation and de-legitimation of the main enemy (FARC and ELN, and suspects and the problematic resident (offenders, acquire a particular form of registration in the individualities and the social body, and extends to the soccer field, the school, the streets, the workplaces, the artifacts (stone and soccer arches present in the territory. In addition to suspects and offenders, the paramilitary leader, David Hernández Rojas, alias ‘39’, led to another subject registered in the speech, the redeemed/collaborators.

Discrete Fracture Network Modeling and Simulation of Subsurface Transport for the Topopah Springs and Lava Flow Aquifers at Pahute Mesa, FY 15 Progress Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Makedonska, Nataliia [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Kwicklis, Edward Michael [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Birdsell, Kay Hanson [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Harrod, Jeremy Ashcraft [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Karra, Satish [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

2016-10-18

This progress report for fiscal year 2015 (FY15) describes the development of discrete fracture network (DFN) models for Pahute Mesa. DFN models will be used to upscale parameters for simulations of subsurface flow and transport in fractured media in Pahute Mesa. The research focuses on modeling of groundwater flow and contaminant transport using DFNs generated according to fracture characteristics observed in the Topopah Spring Aquifer (TSA) and the Lava Flow Aquifer (LFA). This work will improve the representation of radionuclide transport processes in large-scale, regulatory-focused models with a view to reduce pessimistic bounding approximations and provide more realistic contaminant boundary calculations that can be used to describe the future extent of contaminated groundwater. Our goal is to refine a modeling approach that can translate parameters to larger-scale models that account for local-scale flow and transport processes, which tend to attenuate migration.

Site-specific analysis of hybrid geothermal/fossil power plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1977-06-01

A preliminary economic analysis of a hybrid geothermal/coal power plant was completed for four geothermal resource areas: Roosevelt Hot Springs, Coso Hot Springs, East Mesa, and Long Valley. A hybrid plant would be economically viable at Roosevelt Hot Springs and somewhat less so at Coso Hot Springs. East Mesa and Long Valley show no economic promise. A well-designed hybrid plant could use geothermal energy for boiler feedwater heating, auxiliary power, auxiliary heating, and cooling water. Construction and operation of a hybrid plant at either Roosevelt Hot Springs or Coso Hot Springs is recommended. A modified version of the Lawrence Berkeley Livermore GEOTHM Program is the major analytical tool used in the analysis. The Intermountain Power Project is the reference all coal-fired plant.

Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn

The subject of this Ph.D. thesis entitled “Optimising Transport Decision Making using Customised Decision Models and Decision Conferences” is multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) and decision support in the context of transport infrastructure assessments. Despite the fact that large amounts...... is concerned with the insufficiency of conventional cost-benefit analysis (CBA), and proposes the use of MCDA as a supplementing tool in order to also capture impacts of a more strategic character in the appraisals and hence make more use of the often large efforts put in the preliminary examinations. MCDA...... and rail to bike transport projects. Two major concerns have been to propose an examination process that can be used in situations where complex decision problems need to be addressed by experts as well as non-experts in decision making, and to identify appropriate assessment techniques to be used...

SPATIAL ANALYSIS AND DECISION ASSISTANCE (SADA) TRAINING COURSE

Science.gov (United States)

Spatial Analysis and Decision Assistance (SADA) is a Windows freeware program that incorporates tools from environmental assessment into an effective problem-solving environment. SADA was developed by the Institute for Environmental Modeling at the University of Tennessee and inc...

Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis; The Algebraic Approach

NARCIS (Netherlands)

P.P. Wakker (Peter)

1991-01-01

textabstractIn Wakker (1989, "Additive Representations of Preferences, A New Foundation of Decision Analysis"), a new foundation of decision analysis was given. The main tool was a way to derive comparisons of "tradeoffs" from ordinal preferences, with comparisons of tradeoffs revealing orderings of

Economic analysis for upgrade decision-making using a control system replacement example

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

De Grosbois, J.; Wichman, R.; Hepburn, G.A.; Basso, R.; Kumar, V.; Deregowska, D.

2006-01-01

This paper (3rd in a CNS series) provides insight on how nuclear power plants can achieve better efficiencies and reduced operations and maintenance (O and M) costs by making well-informed equipment upgrade decisions. An investment decision in a plant system upgrade will have various technical options and associated performance outcomes. These can be modelled and evaluated using economic and financial analysis methods. The economic analysis usually involves a comparison of an investment scenario versus a no-investment scenario called difference case analysis. The investment may include several scenarios due to the existence of various options, different investment timings, or desired performance results. Classical approaches, using financial tools such as net present value and internal rate of return calculations, may be used to quantify the financial benefits of the difference cases when certainty about the outcomes is assumed. When making decisions under risk, the classical approaches may be augmented with methods that consider life-cycle costs and benefits, the cost consequences of and probability of equipment failure, the timing of the replacement, and the uncertainties in estimating costs and benefits. The use of expected value and Monte Carlo simulation, among others, allow the incorporation of financial and technical uncertainty into the analysis. Finally, sensitivity analysis enables better understanding of the problem and may improve the decision and clarify the level of confidence that should be put in the outcomes. This paper illustrates the use of financial decision analysis methods for equipment replacements using a control system upgrade example. These methods may easily be generalized for other types of plant upgrades. (author)

Draft environmental statement related to the Energy Fuels Nuclear, Inc., White Mesa Uranium Project (San Juan County, Utah)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1978-12-01

The proposed action is the issuance of a Source Material License to Energy Fuels Nuclear, Inc., for the construction and operation of the proposed White Mesa Uranium Project (Utah) with a product (U 3 O 8 ) production limited to 7.3 x 10 5 kg (1.6 x 10 6 lb) per year. Possible environmental impacts and adverse effects were identified. Conditions for the protection of the environment are set forth before the license can be issued

Padrão de identidade e qualidade do tomate (Lycopersicon esculentum Mill. de mesa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ferreira Sila Mary Rodrigues

2004-01-01

Full Text Available O valor comercial do tomate, Lycopersicon esculentum Mill., é definido pelas características de identidade e qualidade presentes no fruto que podem ser avaliadas pela classificação do produto. A presente revisão de literatura teve como objetivo descrever o padrão de identidade e qualidade do tomate de mesa, através da classificação. O tomate de mesa é classificado em grupos, subgrupos, classes e tipos. De acordo com o formato do fruto, o tomate é classificado em dois grupos: oblongo, quando o diâmetro longitudinal é maior que o transversal e redondo, quando o diâmetro longitudinal é menor ou igual ao transversal. Em função do estádio de maturação, o tomate é classificado em cinco subgrupos: verde maduro, pintado, rosado, vermelho e vermelho maduro. A classe é definida em função do maior diâmetro transversal do fruto em relação ao grupo a que pertença. O tomate oblongo é classificado em três classes: grande, médio e pequeno. O tomate redondo é classificado em quatro classes: gigante, grande, médio e pequeno. De acordo com os índices de ocorrência de defeitos graves e leves presentes nos frutos, o tomate é classificado também em tipo: extra, especial ou selecionado e comercial. São considerados defeitos graves: podridão, passado, queimado, dano por geada, podridão apical, e defeitos leves: dano, mancha, ocado, deformado e imaturo. A amostra de tomate que ultrapasse os índices de defeitos previstos pela legislação do Ministério da Agricultura é classificada como fora do padrão.

Reliability analysis framework for computer-assisted medical decision systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Habas, Piotr A.; Zurada, Jacek M.; Elmaghraby, Adel S.; Tourassi, Georgia D.

2007-01-01

We present a technique that enhances computer-assisted decision (CAD) systems with the ability to assess the reliability of each individual decision they make. Reliability assessment is achieved by measuring the accuracy of a CAD system with known cases similar to the one in question. The proposed technique analyzes the feature space neighborhood of the query case to dynamically select an input-dependent set of known cases relevant to the query. This set is used to assess the local (query-specific) accuracy of the CAD system. The estimated local accuracy is utilized as a reliability measure of the CAD response to the query case. The underlying hypothesis of the study is that CAD decisions with higher reliability are more accurate. The above hypothesis was tested using a mammographic database of 1337 regions of interest (ROIs) with biopsy-proven ground truth (681 with masses, 656 with normal parenchyma). Three types of decision models, (i) a back-propagation neural network (BPNN), (ii) a generalized regression neural network (GRNN), and (iii) a support vector machine (SVM), were developed to detect masses based on eight morphological features automatically extracted from each ROI. The performance of all decision models was evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) analysis. The study showed that the proposed reliability measure is a strong predictor of the CAD system's case-specific accuracy. Specifically, the ROC area index for CAD predictions with high reliability was significantly better than for those with low reliability values. This result was consistent across all decision models investigated in the study. The proposed case-specific reliability analysis technique could be used to alert the CAD user when an opinion that is unlikely to be reliable is offered. The technique can be easily deployed in the clinical environment because it is applicable with a wide range of classifiers regardless of their structure and it requires neither additional

Analysis of decision alternatives of the deep borehole filter restoration problem

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abdildin, Yerkin G.; Abbas, Ali E.

2016-01-01

The energy problem is one of the biggest challenges facing the world in the 21st century. The nuclear energy is the fastest-growing contributor to the world energy and uranium mining is the primary step in its chain. One of the fundamental problems in the uranium extraction industry is the deep borehole filter restoration problem. This decision problem is very complex due to multiple objectives and various uncertainties. Besides the improvement of uranium production, the decision makers often need to meet internationally recognized standards (ISO 14001) of labor protection, safety measures, and preservation of environment. The problem can be simplified by constructing the multiattribute utility function, but the choice of the appropriate functional form requires the practical evaluation of different methods. In present work, we evaluate the alternatives of this complex problem by two distinct approaches for analyzing decision problems. The decision maker and the assessor is a Deputy Director General of a transnational corporation. - Highlights: • Analyzes 5 borehole recovery methods across the 4 most important attributes (criteria). • Considers financial, technological, environmental, and safety factors. • Compares two decision analysis approaches and the profit analysis. • Illustrates the assessments of the decision maker's preferences. • Determines that the assumption of independence of attributes yields imprecise recommendations.

Decision analysis for cleanup strategies in an urban environment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sinkko, K.; Ikaeheimonen, T.K.

2000-01-01

The values entering the decisions on protective actions, as concerning the society, are multidimensional. People have strong feelings and beliefs about these values, some of which are not numerically quantified and do not exist in monetary form. The decision analysis is applied in planning the recovery operations to clean up an urban environment in the event of a hypothetical nuclear power plant accident assisting in rendering explicit and apparent all factors involved and evaluating their relative importance. (author)

[Comparison of Discriminant Analysis and Decision Trees for the Detection of Subclinical Keratoconus].

Science.gov (United States)

Kleinhans, Sonja; Herrmann, Eva; Kohnen, Thomas; Bühren, Jens

2017-08-15

Background Iatrogenic keratectasia is one of the most dreaded complications of refractive surgery. In most cases, keratectasia develops after refractive surgery of eyes suffering from subclinical stages of keratoconus with few or no signs. Unfortunately, there has been no reliable procedure for the early detection of keratoconus. In this study, we used binary decision trees (recursive partitioning) to assess their suitability for discrimination between normal eyes and eyes with subclinical keratoconus. Patients and Methods The method of decision tree analysis was compared with discriminant analysis which has shown good results in previous studies. Input data were 32 eyes of 32 patients with newly diagnosed keratoconus in the contralateral eye and preoperative data of 10 eyes of 5 patients with keratectasia after laser in-situ keratomileusis (LASIK). The control group was made up of 245 normal eyes after LASIK and 12-month follow-up without any signs of iatrogenic keratectasia. Results Decision trees gave better accuracy and specificity than did discriminant analysis. The sensitivity of decision trees was lower than the sensitivity of discriminant analysis. Conclusion On the basis of the patient population of this study, decision trees did not prove to be superior to linear discriminant analysis for the detection of subclinical keratoconus. Georg Thieme Verlag KG Stuttgart · New York.

Groundwater Flow Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Greg Ruskauff

2006-06-01

The Pahute Mesa groundwater flow model supports the FFACO UGTA corrective action strategy objective of providing an estimate of the vertical and horizontal extent of contaminant migration for each CAU in order to predict contaminant boundaries. A contaminant boundary is the model-predicted perimeter that defines the extent of radionuclide-contaminated groundwater from underground nuclear testing above background conditions exceeding Safe Drinking Water Act (SDWA) standards. The contaminant boundary will be composed of both a perimeter boundary and a lower hydrostratigraphic unit (HSU) boundary. Additional results showing contaminant concentrations and the location of the contaminant boundary at selected times will also be presented. These times may include the verification period, the end of the five-year proof-of-concept period, as well as other times that are of specific interest. The FFACO (1996) requires that the contaminant transport model predict the contaminant boundary at 1,000 years and “at a 95% level of confidence.” The Pahute Mesa Phase I flow model described in this report provides, through the flow fields derived from alternative hydrostratigraphic framework models (HFMs) and recharge models, one part of the data required to compute the contaminant boundary. Other components include the simplified source term model, which incorporates uncertainty and variability in the factors that control radionuclide release from an underground nuclear test (SNJV, 2004a), and the transport model with the concomitant parameter uncertainty as described in Shaw (2003). The uncertainty in all the above model components will be evaluated to produce the final contaminant boundary. This report documents the development of the groundwater flow model for the Central and Western Pahute Mesa CAUs.

Making Good Decisions in Healthcare with Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis: The Use, Current Research and Future Development of MCDA.

Science.gov (United States)

Mühlbacher, Axel C; Kaczynski, Anika

2016-02-01

Healthcare decision making is usually characterized by a low degree of transparency. The demand for transparent decision processes can be fulfilled only when assessment, appraisal and decisions about health technologies are performed under a systematic construct of benefit assessment. The benefit of an intervention is often multidimensional and, thus, must be represented by several decision criteria. Complex decision problems require an assessment and appraisal of various criteria; therefore, a decision process that systematically identifies the best available alternative and enables an optimal and transparent decision is needed. For that reason, decision criteria must be weighted and goal achievement must be scored for all alternatives. Methods of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) are available to analyse and appraise multiple clinical endpoints and structure complex decision problems in healthcare decision making. By means of MCDA, value judgments, priorities and preferences of patients, insurees and experts can be integrated systematically and transparently into the decision-making process. This article describes the MCDA framework and identifies potential areas where MCDA can be of use (e.g. approval, guidelines and reimbursement/pricing of health technologies). A literature search was performed to identify current research in healthcare. The results showed that healthcare decision making is addressing the problem of multiple decision criteria and is focusing on the future development and use of techniques to weight and score different decision criteria. This article emphasizes the use and future benefit of MCDA.

Safety analysis in support of regulatory decision marking

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pomier Baez, L.; Troncoso Fleitas, M.; Valhuerdi Debesa, C.; Valle Cepero, R.; Hernandez, J.L.

1996-01-01

Features of different safety analysis techniques by means of calculation thermohydraulic a probabilistic and severe accidents used in the safety assessment, as well as the development of these techniques in Cuba and their use in support of regulatory decision making are presented

Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

2004-01-01

Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat

Helping decision makers frame, analyze, and implement decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Runge, Michael C.; McDonald-Madden, Eve

2018-01-01

All decisions have the same recognizable elements. Context, objectives, alternatives, consequences, and deliberation. Decision makers and analysts familiar with these elements can quickly see the underlying structure of a decision.There are only a small number of classes of decisions. These classes differ in the cognitive and scientific challenge they present to the decision maker; the ability to recognize the class of decision leads a decision maker to tools to aid in the analysis.Sometimes we need more information, sometimes we don’t. The role of science in a decision-making process is to provide the predictions that link the alternative actions to the desired outcomes. Investing in more science is only valuable if it helps to choose a better action.Implementation. The successful integration of decision analysis into environmental decisions requires careful attention to the decision, the people, and the institutions involved.

Using discriminant analysis for credit decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gheorghiţa DINCĂ

2015-12-01

Full Text Available This paper follows to highlight the link between the results obtained applying discriminant analysis and lending decision. For this purpose, we have carried out the research on a sample of 24 Romanian private companies, pertaining to 12 different economic sectors, from I and II categories of Bucharest Stock Exchange, for the period 2010-2012. Our study works with two popular bankruptcy risk’s prediction models, the Altman model and the Anghel model. We have double-checked and confirmed the results of our research by comparing the results from applying the two fore-mentioned models as well as by checking existing debt commitments of each analyzed company to credit institutions during the 2010-2012 period. The aim of this paper was the classification of studied companies into potential bankrupt and non-bankrupt, to assist credit institutions in their decision to grant credit, understanding the approval or rejection algorithm of loan applications and even help potential investors in these ompanies.

Analysis of the decision-making process of nurse managers: a collective reflection.

Science.gov (United States)

Eduardo, Elizabete Araujo; Peres, Aida Maris; de Almeida, Maria de Lourdes; Roglio, Karina de Dea; Bernardino, Elizabeth

2015-01-01

to analyze the decision-making model adopted by nurses from the perspective of some decision-making process theories. qualitative approach, based on action research. Semi-structured questionnaires and seminars were conducted from April to June 2012 in order to understand the nature of decisions and the decision-making process of nine nurses in position of managers at a public hospital in Southern Brazil. Data were subjected to content analysis. data were classified in two categories: the current situation of decision-making, which showed a lack of systematization; the construction and collective decision-making, which emphasizes the need to develop a decision-making model. the decision-making model used by nurses is limited because it does not consider two important factors: the limits of human rationality, and the external and internal organizational environments that influence and determine right decisions.

Multivariate analysis of flow cytometric data using decision trees

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Svenja eSimon

2012-04-01

Full Text Available Characterization of the response of the host immune system is important in understanding the bidirectional interactions between the host and microbial pathogens. For research on the host site, flow cytometry has become one of the major tools in immunology. Advances in technology and reagents allow now the simultaneous assessment of multiple markers on a single cell level generating multidimensional data sets that require multivariate statistical analysis. We explored the explanatory power of the supervised machine learning method called 'induction of decision trees' in flow cytometric data. In order to examine whether the production of a certain cytokine is depended on other cytokines, datasets from intracellular staining for six cytokines with complex patterns of co-expression were analyzed by induction of decision trees. After weighting the data according to their class probabilities, we created a total of 13,392 different decision trees for each given cytokine with different parameter settings. For a more realistic estimation of the decision trees's quality, we used stratified 5-fold cross-validation and chose the 'best' tree according to a combination of different quality criteria. While some of the decision trees reflected previously known co-expression patterns, we found that the expression of some cytokines was not only dependent on the co-expression of others per se, but was also dependent on the intensity of expression. Thus, for the first time we successfully used induction of decision trees for the analysis of high dimensional flow cytometric data and demonstrated the feasibility of this method to reveal structural patterns in such data sets.

Integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Catrinu, M.D.; Nordgard, D.E.

2011-01-01

Asset managers in electricity distribution companies generally recognize the need and the challenge of adding structure and a higher degree of formal analysis into the increasingly complex asset management decisions. This implies improving the present asset management practice by making the best use of the available data and expert knowledge and by adopting new methods for risk analysis and decision support and nevertheless better ways to document the decisions made. This paper discusses methods for integrating risk analysis and multi-criteria decision support under uncertainty in electricity distribution system asset management. The focus is on how to include the different company objectives and risk analyses into a structured decision framework when deciding how to handle the physical assets of the electricity distribution network. This paper presents an illustrative example of decision support for maintenance and reinvestment strategies based, using expert knowledge, simplified risk analyses and multi-criteria decision analysis under uncertainty.

Use of multicriteria decision analysis to address conservation conflicts.

Science.gov (United States)

Davies, A L; Bryce, R; Redpath, S M

2013-10-01

Conservation conflicts are increasing on a global scale and instruments for reconciling competing interests are urgently needed. Multicriteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a structured, decision-support process that can facilitate dialogue between groups with differing interests and incorporate human and environmental dimensions of conflict. MCDA is a structured and transparent method of breaking down complex problems and incorporating multiple objectives. The value of this process for addressing major challenges in conservation conflict management is that MCDA helps in setting realistic goals; entails a transparent decision-making process; and addresses mistrust, differing world views, cross-scale issues, patchy or contested information, and inflexible legislative tools. Overall we believe MCDA provides a valuable decision-support tool, particularly for increasing awareness of the effects of particular values and choices for working toward negotiated compromise, although an awareness of the effect of methodological choices and the limitations of the method is vital before applying it in conflict situations. © 2013 Society for Conservation Biology.

A preliminary study applying decision analysis to the treatment of caries in primary teeth.

Science.gov (United States)

Tamošiūnas, Vytautas; Kay, Elizabeth; Craven, Rebecca

2013-01-01

To determine an optimal treatment strategy for carious deciduous teeth. Manchester Dental Hospital. Decision analysis. The likelihoods of each of the sequelae of caries in deciduous teeth were determined from the literature. The utility of the outcomes from non-treatment and treatment was then measured in 100 parents of children with caries, using a visual analogue scale. Decision analysis was performed which weighted the value of each potential outcome by the probability of its occurrence. A decision tree "fold-back" and sensitivity analysis then determined which treatment strategies, under which circumstances, offered the maximum expected utilities. The decision to leave a carious deciduous tooth unrestored attracted a maximum utility of 76.65 and the overall expected utility for the decision "restore" was 73.27 The decision to restore or not restore carious deciduous teeth are therefore of almost equal value. The decision is however highly sensitive to the utility value assigned to the advent of pain by the patient. There is no clear advantage to be gained by restoring deciduous teeth if patients' evaluations of outcomes are taken into account. Avoidance of pain and avoidance of procedures which are viewed as unpleasant by parents should be key determinants of clinical decision making about carious deciduous teeth.

Effects of stress on decisions under uncertainty: A meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Starcke, Katrin; Brand, Matthias

2016-09-01

[Correction Notice: An Erratum for this article was reported in Vol 142(9) of Psychological Bulletin (see record 2016-39486-001). It should have been reported that the inverted u-shaped relationship between cortisol stress responses and decision-making performance was only observed in female, but not in male participants as suggested by the study by van den Bos, Harteveld, and Stoop (2009). Corrected versions of the affected sentences are provided.] The purpose of the present meta-analysis was to quantify the effects that stress has on decisions made under uncertainty. We hypothesized that stress increases reward seeking and risk taking through alterations of dopamine firing rates and reduces executive control by hindering optimal prefrontal cortex functioning. In certain decision situations, increased reward seeking and risk taking is dysfunctional, whereas in others, this is not the case. We also assumed that the type of stressor plays a role. In addition, moderating variables are analyzed, such as the hormonal stress response, the time between stress onset and decisions, and the participants' age and gender. We included studies in the meta-analysis that investigated decision making after a laboratory stress-induction versus a control condition (k = 32 datasets, N = 1829 participants). A random-effects model revealed that overall, stress conditions lead to decisions that can be described as more disadvantageous, more reward seeking, and more risk taking than nonstress conditions (d = .17). In those situations in which increased reward seeking and risk taking is disadvantageous, stress had significant effects (d = .26), whereas in other situations, no effects were observed (d = .01). Effects were observed under processive stressors (d = .19), but not under systemic ones (d = .09). Moderation analyses did not reveal any significant results. We concluded that stress deteriorates overall decision-making performance through the mechanisms proposed. The effects differ

Using reliability analysis to support decision making\\ud in phased mission systems

OpenAIRE

Zhang, Yang; Prescott, Darren

2017-01-01

Due to the environments in which they will operate, future autonomous systems must be capable of reconfiguring quickly and safely following faults or environmental changes. Past research has shown how, by considering autonomous systems to perform phased missions, reliability analysis can support decision making by allowing comparison of the probability of success of different missions following reconfiguration. Binary Decision Diagrams (BDDs) offer fast, accurate reliability analysis that cou...

[HEALTH ECONOMIC ANALYSIS AND FAIR DECISION MAKING].

Science.gov (United States)

Jeantet, Marine; Lopez, Alain

2015-09-01

Health technology assessment consists in evaluating the incremental cost-benefit ratio of a medicine, a medical device, a vaccine, a health strategy, in comparison to alternative health technologies. This form of socio-eoonomic evaluation aims at optimizing resource allocation within the health system. By setting the terms of valid alternatives, it is useful to highlight public choices, but it cannot in itself make the decision as regards the public funding of patient's access to the considered technology. The decision to include such technology in the basket of health goods and sercices covered, the levels and conditions of the coverage, also result from budget constraints, from economic situation and from a political vision about health policy, social protection and public expenditure. Accordingly, health economic analysis must be implemented on specific and targeted topics. The decision making process, with its health, economic and ethical stakes, calls for a public procedure and debate, based on shared information and argument. Otherwise, health system regulation, confronted with radical and costly innovations in the coming years, will become harder to handle. This requires the development of health economic research teams able to contribute to this assessment exercise.

75 FR 35457 - Draft of the 2010 Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS)

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-22

... Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency... site, ``2010 release of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS).'' The..., organize, and share information useful for causal evaluations in aquatic systems. CADDIS is based on EPA's...

Procesos de enmarcamiento y estrategias comunicativas de la Mesa Amplia Nacional Estudiantil en las protestas de 2011 en Colombia

OpenAIRE

Edwin Cruz Rodríguez

2015-01-01

This article analyzes the framing processes and the communication strategies of the student movement called Mesa Amplia Nacional Estudiantil during the 2011 protests against the higher education reform in Colombia. For this student movement, the main antagonist is the Government and it claims that education is a right and not a commodity; and a battle that goes beyond the university community and the student body is proposed in order to carry out several social and popular acts. The participa...

SEDIMENT ANALYSIS NETWORK FOR DECISION SUPPORT (SANDS) LANDSAT GEOLOGICAL SURVEY OF AL (GSA) ANALYSIS V1

Data.gov (United States)

National Aeronautics and Space Administration — The Sediment Analysis Network for Decision Support (SANDS) Landsat Geological Survey of AL (GSA) Analysis dataset analyzed changes in the coastal shoreline and...

Sensitivity analysis for decision-making using the MORE method-A Pareto approach

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ravalico, Jakin K.; Maier, Holger R.; Dandy, Graeme C.

2009-01-01

Integrated Assessment Modelling (IAM) incorporates knowledge from different disciplines to provide an overarching assessment of the impact of different management decisions. The complex nature of these models, which often include non-linearities and feedback loops, requires special attention for sensitivity analysis. This is especially true when the models are used to form the basis of management decisions, where it is important to assess how sensitive the decisions being made are to changes in model parameters. This research proposes an extension to the Management Option Rank Equivalence (MORE) method of sensitivity analysis; a new method of sensitivity analysis developed specifically for use in IAM and decision-making. The extension proposes using a multi-objective Pareto optimal search to locate minimum combined parameter changes that result in a change in the preferred management option. It is demonstrated through a case study of the Namoi River, where results show that the extension to MORE is able to provide sensitivity information for individual parameters that takes into account simultaneous variations in all parameters. Furthermore, the increased sensitivities to individual parameters that are discovered when joint parameter variation is taken into account shows the importance of ensuring that any sensitivity analysis accounts for these changes.

Decision and Inhibitory Rule Optimization for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Alsolami, Fawaz

2016-01-01

‘If-then’ rule sets are one of the most expressive and human-readable knowledge representations. This thesis deals with optimization and analysis of decision and inhibitory rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. The most important

Applied Swarm-based medicine: collecting decision trees for patterns of algorithms analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Panje, Cédric M; Glatzer, Markus; von Rappard, Joscha; Rothermundt, Christian; Hundsberger, Thomas; Zumstein, Valentin; Plasswilm, Ludwig; Putora, Paul Martin

2017-08-16

The objective consensus methodology has recently been applied in consensus finding in several studies on medical decision-making among clinical experts or guidelines. The main advantages of this method are an automated analysis and comparison of treatment algorithms of the participating centers which can be performed anonymously. Based on the experience from completed consensus analyses, the main steps for the successful implementation of the objective consensus methodology were identified and discussed among the main investigators. The following steps for the successful collection and conversion of decision trees were identified and defined in detail: problem definition, population selection, draft input collection, tree conversion, criteria adaptation, problem re-evaluation, results distribution and refinement, tree finalisation, and analysis. This manuscript provides information on the main steps for successful collection of decision trees and summarizes important aspects at each point of the analysis.

Ethical analysis to improve decision-making on health technologies

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Saarni, Samuli I; Hofmann, Bjørn; Lampe, Kristian

2008-01-01

Health technology assessment (HTA) is the multidisciplinary study of the implications of the development, diffusion and use of health technologies. It supports health-policy decisions by providing a joint knowledge base for decision-makers. To increase its policy relevance, HTA tries to extend...... beyond effectiveness and costs to also considering the social, organizational and ethical implications of technologies. However, a commonly accepted method for analysing the ethical aspects of health technologies is lacking. This paper describes a model for ethical analysis of health technology...... to only analyse the ethical consequences of a technology, but also the ethical issues of the whole HTA process must be considered. Selection of assessment topics, methods and outcomes is essentially a value-laden decision. Health technologies may challenge moral or cultural values and beliefs...

An alternative method for quantifying coronary artery calcification: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA).

Science.gov (United States)

Liang, C Jason; Budoff, Matthew J; Kaufman, Joel D; Kronmal, Richard A; Brown, Elizabeth R

2012-07-02

Extent of atherosclerosis measured by amount of coronary artery calcium (CAC) in computed tomography (CT) has been traditionally assessed using thresholded scoring methods, such as the Agatston score (AS). These thresholded scores have value in clinical prediction, but important information might exist below the threshold, which would have important advantages for understanding genetic, environmental, and other risk factors in atherosclerosis. We developed a semi-automated threshold-free scoring method, the spatially weighted calcium score (SWCS) for CAC in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). Chest CT scans were obtained from 6814 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA). The SWCS and the AS were calculated for each of the scans. Cox proportional hazards models and linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations of the scores with CHD events and CHD risk factors. CHD risk factors were summarized using a linear predictor. Among all participants and participants with AS > 0, the SWCS and AS both showed similar strongly significant associations with CHD events (hazard ratios, 1.23 and 1.19 per doubling of SWCS and AS; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.30 and 1.14 to 1.26) and CHD risk factors (slopes, 0.178 and 0.164; 95% CI, 0.162 to 0.195 and 0.149 to 0.179). Even among participants with AS = 0, an increase in the SWCS was still significantly associated with established CHD risk factors (slope, 0.181; 95% CI, 0.138 to 0.224). The SWCS appeared to be predictive of CHD events even in participants with AS = 0, though those events were rare as expected. The SWCS provides a valid, continuous measure of CAC suitable for quantifying the extent of atherosclerosis without a threshold, which will be useful for examining novel genetic and environmental risk factors for atherosclerosis.

An alternative method for quantifying coronary artery calcification: the multi-ethnic study of atherosclerosis (MESA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Liang C

2012-07-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Extent of atherosclerosis measured by amount of coronary artery calcium (CAC in computed tomography (CT has been traditionally assessed using thresholded scoring methods, such as the Agatston score (AS. These thresholded scores have value in clinical prediction, but important information might exist below the threshold, which would have important advantages for understanding genetic, environmental, and other risk factors in atherosclerosis. We developed a semi-automated threshold-free scoring method, the spatially weighted calcium score (SWCS for CAC in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA. Methods Chest CT scans were obtained from 6814 participants in the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis (MESA. The SWCS and the AS were calculated for each of the scans. Cox proportional hazards models and linear regression models were used to evaluate the associations of the scores with CHD events and CHD risk factors. CHD risk factors were summarized using a linear predictor. Results Among all participants and participants with AS > 0, the SWCS and AS both showed similar strongly significant associations with CHD events (hazard ratios, 1.23 and 1.19 per doubling of SWCS and AS; 95% CI, 1.16 to 1.30 and 1.14 to 1.26 and CHD risk factors (slopes, 0.178 and 0.164; 95% CI, 0.162 to 0.195 and 0.149 to 0.179. Even among participants with AS = 0, an increase in the SWCS was still significantly associated with established CHD risk factors (slope, 0.181; 95% CI, 0.138 to 0.224. The SWCS appeared to be predictive of CHD events even in participants with AS = 0, though those events were rare as expected. Conclusions The SWCS provides a valid, continuous measure of CAC suitable for quantifying the extent of atherosclerosis without a threshold, which will be useful for examining novel genetic and environmental risk factors for atherosclerosis.

Completion Report for Well ER-12-3 Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa - Shoshone Mountain

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2006-01-01

Well ER-12-3 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, National Nuclear Security Administration Nevada Site Office, in support of the Nevada Environmental Restoration Project at the Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada. The well was drilled in March and April 2005 as part of a hydrogeologic investigation program for the Rainier Mesa-Shoshone Mountain Corrective Action Unit. The overall purpose of the well was to gather subsurface data to better characterize the hydrogeology of central Rainier Mesa, especially in the older Tertiary volcanic rocks and Paleozoic sedimentary rocks. The main 47.0-centimeter hole was drilled to a depth of 799.2 meters and cased with 33.97-centimeter casing to 743.1 meters. The hole diameter was then decreased to 31.1 centimeters, and the well was drilled to a total depth of 1,496.0 meters. The completion string consisted of 13.97-centimeter stainless steel casing, with two slotted intervals open to the lower carbonate aquifer, suspended from 19.37-centimeter carbon steel casing. A piezometer string was installed outside the 33.97-centimeter casing to a depth of 467.1 meters to monitor a zone of perched water within the Tertiary volcanic section. Data gathered during and shortly after hole construction include composite drill cuttings samples collected every 3 meters (extra cuttings samples were collected from the Paleozoic rocks for paleontological analyses), sidewall core samples from 35 depths, various geophysical logs, and water level measurements. These data indicate that the well penetrated 674.2 meters of Tertiary volcanic rocks and 821.7 meters of Paleozoic dolomite and limestone. Forty-nine days after the well was completed, but prior to well development and testing, the water level inside the main hole was tagged at the depth of 949.1 meters, and the water level inside the piezometer string was tagged at 379.9 meters

Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Multi-criteria decision analysis integrated with GIS for radio astronomical observatory site selection in peninsular of Malaysia. R Umar, Z.Z. Abidin, Z.A. Ibrahim, M.K.A. Kamarudin, S.N. Hazmin, A Endut, H Juahir ...

An approach to a constructive simplification of multiagent multicriteria decision making problems via intercriteria analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Atanassov, Krassimir; Szmidt, Eulalia; Kacprzyk, Janusz; Atanassova, Vassia

2017-01-01

A new multiagent multicriteria decision making procedure is proposed that considerably extends the existing methods by making it possible to intelligently reduce the set of criteria to be accounted for. The method employs elements of the novel Intercriteria Analysis method. The use of new tools, notably the intuitionistic fuzzy pairs and intuitionistic fuzzy index matrices provides additional information about the problem, addressed in the decision making procedure. Key words: decision making, multiagent systems, multicriteria decision making, intercriteria analysis, intuitionistic fuzzy estimation

The utility of environmental exergy analysis for decision making in energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simpson, Adam P.; Edwards, Chris F.

2013-01-01

The analysis framework discussed and employed in this paper utilizes the recent recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy to provide a fundamental basis for valuing environmental interactions independent from their secondary impacts. The framework is comprised of two separate components: (1) environmental exergy analysis and (2) anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. Environmental exergy analysis is based on fundamental thermodynamic principles and analysis techniques. It extends the principles of technical exergy analysis to the environment in order to quantify the location, magnitudes, and types of environmental impact—state change, alteration of natural transfers, and destruction change. Anthropocentric sensitivity analysis is based on the concepts of anthropocentric value and anthropocentric sensitivity. It enables the results of environmental exergy analysis to be interpreted for decision making, but at the expense of introducing some subjectivity into the framework. A key attribute of the framework is its ability to evaluate the environmental performance of energy systems on a level playing field, regardless of the specifics of the systems—i.e., resources consumed, products and by-products produced, or system size and time scale. The utility of the analysis framework for decision making is demonstrated in this paper through application to three example energy systems. - Highlights: ► Utilizes the recognition that exergy is a form of environmental free energy. ► Combines environmental exergy analysis and anthropocentric sensitivity analysis. ► Evaluates/compares environmental performance of systems on a level playing field. ► Independence from the system specifics—resources, by-products, sizes, time scales. ► Utility for decision making is demonstrated using real and notional energy systems

Custo de produção de goiabas para mesa produzidas com e sem ensacamento: estudo de caso

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tatiane de Oliveira Tokairin

2014-09-01

Full Text Available O ensacamento de goiabas para mesa tem por finalidade proteger os frutos contra o ataque de pragas, reduzir a aplicações e os níveis de resíduo de agroquímicos. O objetivo deste trabalho foi avaliar a sustentabilidade econômica da produção de goiabas, por meio da comparação do custo de produção entre os sistemas de cultivo com e sem ensacamento dos frutos. Foi realizado um estudo de caso com dados obtidos de uma propriedade comercial de goiabas para mesa no município de Valinhos - SP. O custo de produção foi calculado do Custo Total (CT, composto pelo Custo Operacional (CO e o Custo Anual de Recuperação do Patrimônio (CARP. Para este estudo de caso, o Custo Total de produção de goiaba ensacada foi de R$ 72.208,39 ha-1, e o da goiaba não ensacada R$ 66.467,30 ha-1. Verificou-se, que para manter a Receita Líquida Total obtida pelo produtor, o preço médio de venda deveria passar de R$ 1,85 kg-1 para, no mínimo, R$ 1,96 kg -1 quando os frutos receberem ensacamento. Ambos os sistemas de produção apresentam-se sustentáveis economicamente.

Decisions under uncertainty using Bayesian analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stelian STANCU

2006-01-01

Full Text Available The present paper makes a short presentation of the Bayesian decions method, where extrainformation brings a great support to decision making process, but also attract new costs. In this situation, getting new information, generally experimentaly based, contributes to diminushing the uncertainty degree that influences decision making process. As a conclusion, in a large number of decision problems, there is the possibility that the decision makers will renew some decisions already taken because of the facilities offered by obtainig extrainformation.

Multi-criteria decision analysis: Limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kujawski, Edouard

2003-02-01

The 2002 Winter Olympics women's figure skating competition is used as a case study to illustrate some of the limitations, pitfalls, and practical difficulties of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA). The paper compares several widely used models for synthesizing the multiple attributes into a single aggregate value. The various MCDA models can provide conflicting rankings of the alternatives for a common set of information even under states of certainty. Analysts involved in MCDA need to deal with the following challenging tasks: (1) selecting an appropriate analysis method, and (2) properly interpreting the results. An additional trap is the availability of software tools that implement specific MCDA models that can beguile the user with quantitative scores. These conclusions are independent of the decision domain and they should help foster better MCDA practices in many fields including systems engineering trade studies.

Aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage prognostic decision-making algorithm using classification and regression tree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lo, Benjamin W Y; Fukuda, Hitoshi; Angle, Mark; Teitelbaum, Jeanne; Macdonald, R Loch; Farrokhyar, Forough; Thabane, Lehana; Levine, Mitchell A H

2016-01-01

Classification and regression tree analysis involves the creation of a decision tree by recursive partitioning of a dataset into more homogeneous subgroups. Thus far, there is scarce literature on using this technique to create clinical prediction tools for aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (SAH). The classification and regression tree analysis technique was applied to the multicenter Tirilazad database (3551 patients) in order to create the decision-making algorithm. In order to elucidate prognostic subgroups in aneurysmal SAH, neurologic, systemic, and demographic factors were taken into account. The dependent variable used for analysis was the dichotomized Glasgow Outcome Score at 3 months. Classification and regression tree analysis revealed seven prognostic subgroups. Neurological grade, occurrence of post-admission stroke, occurrence of post-admission fever, and age represented the explanatory nodes of this decision tree. Split sample validation revealed classification accuracy of 79% for the training dataset and 77% for the testing dataset. In addition, the occurrence of fever at 1-week post-aneurysmal SAH is associated with increased odds of post-admission stroke (odds ratio: 1.83, 95% confidence interval: 1.56-2.45, P tree was generated, which serves as a prediction tool to guide bedside prognostication and clinical treatment decision making. This prognostic decision-making algorithm also shed light on the complex interactions between a number of risk factors in determining outcome after aneurysmal SAH.

Decision tree analysis in subarachnoid hemorrhage: prediction of outcome parameters during the course of aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage using decision tree analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Hostettler, Isabel Charlotte; Muroi, Carl; Richter, Johannes Konstantin; Schmid, Josef; Neidert, Marian Christoph; Seule, Martin; Boss, Oliver; Pangalu, Athina; Germans, Menno Robbert; Keller, Emanuela

2018-01-19

OBJECTIVE The aim of this study was to create prediction models for outcome parameters by decision tree analysis based on clinical and laboratory data in patients with aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage (aSAH). METHODS The database consisted of clinical and laboratory parameters of 548 patients with aSAH who were admitted to the Neurocritical Care Unit, University Hospital Zurich. To examine the model performance, the cohort was randomly divided into a derivation cohort (60% [n = 329]; training data set) and a validation cohort (40% [n = 219]; test data set). The classification and regression tree prediction algorithm was applied to predict death, functional outcome, and ventriculoperitoneal (VP) shunt dependency. Chi-square automatic interaction detection was applied to predict delayed cerebral infarction on days 1, 3, and 7. RESULTS The overall mortality was 18.4%. The accuracy of the decision tree models was good for survival on day 1 and favorable functional outcome at all time points, with a difference between the training and test data sets of decision trees enables exploration of dependent variables in the context of multiple changing influences over the course of an illness. The decision tree currently generated increases awareness of the early systemic stress response, which is seemingly pertinent for prognostication.

Mesa NTMS 10 x 20 quadrangle area. Supplemental data report

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koller, G.R.

1980-01-01

This data report presents supplemental analytical results for stream sediments and ground water. The samples were collected as part of the SRL-NURE reconnaissance in the National Topographic Map Series (NTMS) Mesa 1 0 x 2 0 quadrangle. Results are reported for 24 elements (Ag, As, Ba, Be, Ca, Co, Cr, Cu, K, Li, Mg, Mo, Nb, Ni, P, Pb, Se, Sn, Sr, Th, W, Y, Zn, and extractable U) in sediments and 31 elements (Ag, Al, As, B, Ba, Be, Ca, Ce, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, K, Li, Mg, Mn, Mo, Na, Nb, Ni, P, Sc, Se, Si, Sr, Th, Ti, V, Y, Zn, and Zr) as well as pH, alkalinity, and conductivity in ground water. Field data and NAA data will be open-filed when they are available. Microfiche cards have been placed in a pocket on the last page of this report. These cards contain the following information: Cards marked Pg. 1, Pg. 2, and Pg. 3 contain histograms, cumulative frequency plots, and areal distribution plots for sediment samples. The card marked Plate 1 is a site-code map for sediment samples

Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Annema, Jan Anne; Frenken, Koen|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/207145253; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, Maarten

2017-01-01

This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression models

Relating cost-benefit analysis results with transport project decisions in the Netherlands

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Annema, J.A.; Frenken, Koen; Koopmans, Carl; Kroesen, M.

2017-01-01

This paper relates the cost-benefit analysis (CBA) results of transportation policy proposals in the Netherlands with the decision to implement or abandon the proposal. The aim of this study is to explore the relation between the CBA results and decision-making. Multinomial logit regression

ANALYSIS AND COMPARISON OF EXISTING DECISION SUPPORT TECHNOLOGY

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. A. Rybak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of an analytical review and comparison of the most common managerial decision support technologies: the analytic hierarchy method, neural networks, fuzzy set theory, genetic algorithms and neural-fuzzy modeling. The advantages and disadvantages of these approaches are shown. Determine the scope of their application. It is shown that the hierarchy analysis method works well with the full initial information, but due to the need for expert comparison of alternatives and the selection of evaluation criteria has a high proportion of subjectivity. For problems in the conditions of risk and uncertainty prediction seems reasonable use of the theory of fuzzy sets and neural networks. It is also considered technology collective decision applied both in the general election, and the group of experts. It reduces the time for conciliation meetings to reach a consensus by the preliminary analysis of all views submitted for the plane in the form of points. At the same time the consistency of opinion is determined by the distance between them.

Risk Analysis and Decision Making FY 2013 Milestone Report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Engel, David W.; Dalton, Angela C.; Dale, Crystal; Jones, Edward; Thompson, J.

2013-06-01

Risk analysis and decision making is one of the critical objectives of CCSI, which seeks to use information from science-based models with quantified uncertainty to inform decision makers who are making large capital investments. The goal of this task is to develop tools and capabilities to facilitate the development of risk models tailored for carbon capture technologies, quantify the uncertainty of model predictions, and estimate the technical and financial risks associated with the system. This effort aims to reduce costs by identifying smarter demonstrations, which could accelerate development and deployment of the technology by several years.

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

Science.gov (United States)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

Decision analysis for mobilizing and retrieving sludge from double-shell tanks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brothers, A.J.; Williams, N.C.; Dukelow, J.S.; Hansen, R.I.

1997-09-01

This decision analysis evaluates alternative technologies for the initial mobilization and retrieval of sludges in double-shell tanks (DSTs). The analysis is from the perspective of the need to move sludges from one DST to another for interim retrieval. It supports the more general decision of which technologies to use to retreive various types of DST waste. The initial analysis is from the perspective of a typical DST with 2 ft of sludge to mobilize. During the course of the analysis, it became clear that it was important to also consider sludge mobilization in support of the high-level waste (HLW) vitrification demonstration plant, and in particular the risks associated with failing to meeting the minimum order requirements for the vendor, as well as the cost of mobilization and retrieval from the HLW vitrification source tanks

Decision Analysis: Engineering Science or Clinical Art

Science.gov (United States)

1979-11-01

TECHNICAL REPORT TR 79-2-97 DECISION ANALYSIS: ENGINEERING SCIENCE OR CLINICAL ART ? by Dennis M. Buede Prepared for Defense Advanced Research...APPLICATIONS OF THE ENGINEER- ING SCIENCE AND CLINICAL ART EXTREMES 9 3.1 Applications of the Engineering Science Approach 9 3.1.1 Mexican electrical...DISCUSSION 29 4.1 Engineering Science versus Clinical Art : A Characterization of When Each is Most Attractive 30 4.2 The Implications of the Engineering

Info-gap decision theory decisions under severe uncertainty

CERN Document Server

Ben-Haim, Yakov

2006-01-01

Everyone makes decisions, but not everyone is a decision analyst. A decision analyst uses quantitative models and computational methods to formulate decision algorithms, assess decision performance, identify and evaluate options, determine trade-offs and risks, evaluate strategies for investigation, and so on. This book is written for decision analysts. The term ""decision analyst"" covers an extremely broad range of practitioners. Virtually all engineers involved in design (of buildings, machines, processes, etc.) or analysis (of safety, reliability, feasibility, etc.) are decision analysts,

AN ANALYSIS ON THE DECISION MODEL OF SMART PLUS INSURANCE PRODUCT PURCHASE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fitry Primadona

2016-09-01

Full Text Available The purposes of this study were 1 to analyze the decision model of Smart Plus insurance product purchase and 2 to determine the criteria, sub-criteria, and alternative priorities in Smart Plus purchase decision model. The methods utilized in the study included a survey and interview (in-depth interview by using an AHP analysis (Analytical Hierarchy Process and processing software of "Expert Choice". The result of the first analysis indicated the four marketing mixes that had been performed (Price, Product, Process, and Place; while the second one showed that the purchase of Smart Plus product is based on the factors with the level of interest as follow: benefit (36.3%, premium (35.7%, membership process (14.6%, and provider (13.4%. The result of the second analysis revealed the important sub-criteria including premium offer, additional benefits, membership card, and temporary certificate from the medical specialist.Keywords: AHP, life insurance, marketing mix, purchase decision

A Meta-Analysis of Blood Glucose Effects on Human Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Orquin, Jacob L.; Kurzban, Robert

2016-01-01

The academic and public interest in blood glucose and its relationship to decision making has been increasing over the last decade. To investigate and evaluate competing theories about this relationship, we conducted a psychometric meta-analysis on the effect of blood glucose on decision making. We...... and willingness to work when a situation is food related, but decrease willingness to pay and work in all other situations. Low levels of blood glucose increase the future discount rate for food; that is, decision makers become more impatient, and to a lesser extent increase the future discount rate for money...

Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2014-09-13

The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

Minimization of Decision Tree Average Depth for Decision Tables with Many-valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad; Moshkov, Mikhail

2014-01-01

The paper is devoted to the analysis of greedy algorithms for the minimization of average depth of decision trees for decision tables such that each row is labeled with a set of decisions. The goal is to find one decision from the set of decisions. When we compare with the optimal result obtained from dynamic programming algorithm, we found some greedy algorithms produces results which are close to the optimal result for the minimization of average depth of decision trees.

A method for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

1995-01-01

An analysis method has been developed for analysis of nuclear power plant operators' decision making in simulated disturbance situations. The aim of the analysis is to investigate operators' orientation which is expected to manifest itself as collective strategies in utilization of resources of decision making. Resources analyzed here are different information sources and, in addition, collaborative resources like communication and participation. The cognitive approach on the basis of the method considers decision making as collective construction of common interpretation of available information. Utilization of information is evaluated with respect to operative context. This is made with help of conceptualization of the disturbance situation from the decision making point of view and by construction of operative reference for activity. The latter means conceptualization of the situation from the safety point of view and also consideration of other boundary constraints of decision making, i.e. economical and technical aspects. The analysis method is intended to be used in routine simulator training in nuclear power plants. By virtue of its contextual and dynamical approach it makes the developing nature of activity visible. Cumulation and distribution of knowledge of decision making as developing activity, controlled by orientation and boundary constraints of process control, is expected to improve operational culture of a plant organization. (author). 2 refs, 1 fig

An integrated probabilistic risk analysis decision support methodology for systems with multiple state variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sen, P.; Tan, John K.G.; Spencer, David

1999-01-01

Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) methods have been proven to be valuable in risk and reliability analysis. However, a weak link seems to exist between methods for analysing risks and those for making rational decisions. The integrated decision support system (IDSS) methodology presented in this paper attempts to address this issue in a practical manner. In consists of three phases: a PRA phase, a risk sensitivity analysis (SA) phase and an optimisation phase, which are implemented through an integrated computer software system. In the risk analysis phase the problem is analysed by the Boolean representation method (BRM), a PRA method that can deal with systems with multiple state variables and feedback loops. In the second phase the results obtained from the BRM are utilised directly to perform importance and risk SA. In the third phase, the problem is formulated as a multiple objective decision making problem in the form of multiple objective reliability optimisation. An industrial example is included. The resultant solutions of a five objective reliability optimisation are presented, on the basis of which rational decision making can be explored

Data mining approach to bipolar cognitive map development and decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Wen-Ran

2002-03-01

A data mining approach to cognitive mapping is presented based on bipolar logic, bipolar relations, and bipolar clustering. It is shown that a correlation network derived from a database can be converted to a bipolar cognitive map (or bipolar relation). A transitive, symmetric, and reflexive bipolar relation (equilibrium relation) can be used to identify focal links in decision analysis. It can also be used to cluster a set of events or itemsets into three different clusters: coalition sets, conflict sets, and harmony sets. The coalition sets are positively correlated events or itemsets; each conflict set is a negatively correlated set of two coalition subsets; and a harmony set consists of events that are both negatively and positively correlated. A cognitive map and the clusters can then be used for online decision analysis. This approach combines knowledge discovery with the views of decision makers and provides an effective means for online analytical processing (OLAP) and online analytical mining (OLAM).

Using Decision Analysis to Understand the Indications for Unilateral Hand Transplantation

Science.gov (United States)

McClelland, Brett; Novak, Christine B.; Hanna, Steven; McCabe, Steven J.

2016-01-01

Background: Upper extremity transplantation has been performed to improve quality of life, the benefit which must be traded off for the risk created by life-long immunosuppression. We believe the process of decision analysis is well suited to improve our understanding of these trade-offs. Method: We created a decision tree to include a branch point to illustrate the expected recovery of useful function in the transplant, using the best estimates for utility and probability that exist. Results: Our model revealed that when the probability of achieving a good result, graded as Chen level one or two is greater than 73%, transplantation is preferred over no transplantation. The decision is sensitive to the probability of major complications and the utility of a transplanted limb with minimal function. Conclusions: The results of this analysis show that under some circumstances given a high probability of satisfactory functional recovery, unilateral hand transplantation can be justified. PMID:28149213

Decision analysis framing study; in-valley drainage management strategies for the western San Joaquin Valley, California

Science.gov (United States)

Presser, Theresa S.; Jenni, Karen E.; Nieman, Timothy; Coleman, James

2010-01-01

Constraints on drainage management in the western San Joaquin Valley and implications of proposed approaches to management were recently evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). The USGS found that a significant amount of data for relevant technical issues was available and that a structured, analytical decision support tool could help optimize combinations of specific in-valley drainage management strategies, address uncertainties, and document underlying data analysis for future use. To follow-up on USGS's technical analysis and to help define a scientific basis for decisionmaking in implementing in-valley drainage management strategies, this report describes the first step (that is, a framing study) in a Decision Analysis process. In general, a Decision Analysis process includes four steps: (1) problem framing to establish the scope of the decision problem(s) and a set of fundamental objectives to evaluate potential solutions, (2) generation of strategies to address identified decision problem(s), (3) identification of uncertainties and their relationships, and (4) construction of a decision support model. Participation in such a systematic approach can help to promote consensus and to build a record of qualified supporting data for planning and implementation. In December 2008, a Decision Analysis framing study was initiated with a series of meetings designed to obtain preliminary input from key stakeholder groups on the scope of decisions relevant to drainage management that were of interest to them, and on the fundamental objectives each group considered relevant to those decisions. Two key findings of this framing study are: (1) participating stakeholders have many drainage management objectives in common; and (2) understanding the links between drainage management and water management is necessary both for sound science-based decisionmaking and for resolving stakeholder differences about the value of proposed drainage management solutions. Citing

Decision Analysis of Advertising and Price for Bilateral Competing Supply Chain

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Cheng-Tang Zhang

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The outcome of centralized equilibrium, prisoner's dilemma equilibrium, and decentralized equilibrium under different decision models has been provided with regards to bilateral competing supply chain system, either side of which is composed of one manufacturer and one retailer. Theoretical analysis indicates a positive correlation between price and one's own advertising investment level and a negative correlation between price and the opponent's advertising investment level. Through analysis of numerical examples, the results reveal a first mover advantage that leads to prisoner's dilemma in the system as well as the impact that price and advertising competition intensity has on the supply chain's choice of decision model.

Ranking Tenis Soft V1: Software para el Control del Ranking del Tenis de Mesa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Santiago Calero Morales

2009-12-01

Full Text Available El trabajo enumera algunos pasos metodológicos a tener en cuenta para el diseño de un sistema informático. En la confección del mismo se estudió varias características del mercado nacional, aspecto que tributa en el diseño del negocio, la selección del lenguaje de programación y el gestor de bases de datos, así como la confección del sistema de ayuda, entre otros aspectos. El software ha sido implementado en el país por parte de la Federación Nacional de Tesis de Mesa en algunas competencias, con vistas a depurar el código y a fiscalizar las competiciones auspiciadas por ésta.

75 FR 58374 - 2010 Release of CADDIS (Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System)

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-24

... Decision Information System) AGENCY: Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). ACTION: Notice of public... 2010 version of the Causal Analysis/Diagnosis Decision Information System (CADDIS). This Web site was developed to help scientists find, develop, organize, and use environmental information to improve causal...

Defense against nuclear weapons: a decision analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Orient, J.M.

1985-01-01

Response to the public health threat posed by nuclear weapons is a medical imperative. The United States, in contrast to other nations, has chosen a course that assures maximal casualties in the event of a nuclear attack, on the theory that prevention of the attack is incompatible with preventive measures against its consequences, such as blast injuries and radiation sickness. A decision analysis approach clarifies the risks and benefits of a change to a strategy of preparedness

System for decision analysis support on complex waste management issues

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shropshire, D.E.

1997-01-01

A software system called the Waste Flow Analysis has been developed and applied to complex environmental management processes for the United States Department of Energy (US DOE). The system can evaluate proposed methods of waste retrieval, treatment, storage, transportation, and disposal. Analysts can evaluate various scenarios to see the impacts to waste slows and schedules, costs, and health and safety risks. Decision analysis capabilities have been integrated into the system to help identify preferred alternatives based on a specific objectives may be to maximize the waste moved to final disposition during a given time period, minimize health risks, minimize costs, or combinations of objectives. The decision analysis capabilities can support evaluation of large and complex problems rapidly, and under conditions of variable uncertainty. The system is being used to evaluate environmental management strategies to safely disposition wastes in the next ten years and reduce the environmental legacy resulting from nuclear material production over the past forty years

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-01-01

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set

Shared decision-making in the paediatric field: a literature review and concept analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Eun Sook; Cho, In Young

2017-09-13

The concept of shared decision-making is poorly defined and often used interchangeably with related terms. The aim of this study was to delineate and clarify the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field. Rodgers and Knafl's evolutionary concept analysis was used to delineate and clarify the concept. Following a search of the CINAHL, PubMed and MEDLINE databases and online journals between 1995 and 2016, we included a total of 42 articles that referred to shared decision-making in the paediatric field. The attributes included active participation of the three: parents, children and health professionals; collaborative partnership; reaching a compromise; and common goal for child's health. Antecedents were existing several options with different possible outcomes; substantial decisional conflict; recognising child's health situations that decision-making is needed; and willingness to participate in decision-making. Finally, the consequences included decreased decisional conflict; mutual empowerment; improved child health status; and improved quality of paediatric health care. This study provides a theoretical understanding of the concept of shared decision-making in the paediatric field; furthermore, by integrating this concept into paediatric practice, it may help to reduce the gap between theory and practice. The analysis could also provide nursing researchers with insight into paediatric decision-making and establish a foundation to develop future interventions and situation-specific theory for promoting high-quality decision-making in the paediatric field. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

Una experiencia singular: el proceso de reconversión de los deportistas de alto rendimiento en Francia en esgrima y tenis de mesa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sophie Javerlhiac

2010-01-01

Full Text Available El presente trabajo muestra las dificultades con las que se encuentran los Deportistas de Alto Rendimiento (DAR a la hora de poder compaginar sus carreras deportivas con su formación académica y profesional. Para ilustrar esta realidad, se ha analizado la situación de nueve DAR franceses en esgrima y tenis de mesa. Los resultados muestran cómo existen diferencias significativas entre los DAR de ambos deportes. Por un lado, los tiradores de esgrima compatibilizan la práctica deportiva con su formación, ya que son conscientes de la necesidad de desarrollarse profesionalmente una vez finalizada su carrera deportiva. Esta situación es favorecida, principalmente, por la federación y por el ejemplo de otros deportistas. Por el contrario, los jugadores de tenis de mesa siguen un modelo monodeportivo, el cual se focaliza desde muy temprano en la práctica deportiva y deja a un lado la formación. Tanto la federación, los técnicos como los propios compañeros de equipo crean un ambiente en donde "salirse de la norma" implica un rechazo. Esta situación es analizada detenidamente.

Factors influencing time-location patterns and their impact on estimates of exposure: the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air).

Science.gov (United States)

Spalt, Elizabeth W; Curl, Cynthia L; Allen, Ryan W; Cohen, Martin; Williams, Kayleen; Hirsch, Jana A; Adar, Sara D; Kaufman, Joel D

2016-06-01

We assessed time-location patterns and the role of individual- and residential-level characteristics on these patterns within the Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis and Air Pollution (MESA Air) cohort and also investigated the impact of individual-level time-location patterns on individual-level estimates of exposure to outdoor air pollution. Reported time-location patterns varied significantly by demographic factors such as age, gender, race/ethnicity, income, education, and employment status. On average, Chinese participants reported spending significantly more time indoors and less time outdoors and in transit than White, Black, or Hispanic participants. Using a tiered linear regression approach, we predicted time indoors at home and total time indoors. Our model, developed using forward-selection procedures, explained 43% of the variability in time spent indoors at home, and incorporated demographic, health, lifestyle, and built environment factors. Time-weighted air pollution predictions calculated using recommended time indoors from USEPA overestimated exposures as compared with predictions made with MESA Air participant-specific information. These data fill an important gap in the literature by describing the impact of individual and residential characteristics on time-location patterns and by demonstrating the impact of population-specific data on exposure estimates.

Regulatory decision making by decision analyses

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Holmberg, J.; Pulkkinen, U.

1993-11-01

The Technical Research Centre of Finland (VTT) has studied with the Finnish Centre for Radiation and Nuclear Safety (STUK) the applicability of decision analytic approach to the treatment of nuclear safety related problems at the regulatory body. The role of probabilistic safety assessment (PSA) in decision making has also been discussed. In the study, inspectors from STUK exercised with a decision analytic approach by reoperationalizing two occurred and solved problems. The research scientist from VTT acted as systems analysts guiding the analysis process. The first case was related to a common cause failure phenomenon in solenoid valves controlling pneumatic valves important to safety of the plant. The problem of the regulatory body was to judge whether to allow continued operation or to require more detailed inspections and in which time chedule the inspections should be done. The latter problem was to evaluate design changes of external electrical grid connections after a fire incident had revealed weakness in the separation of electrical system. In both cases, the decision analysis was carried out several sessions in which decision makers, technical experts as well as experts of decision analysis participated. A multi-attribute value function was applied as a decision model so that attributes had to be defined to quantify the levels of achievements of the objectives. The attributes included both indicators related to the level of operational safety of the plant such as core damage frequency given by PSA, and indicators related to the safety culture, i.e., how well the chosen option fits on the regulatory policy. (24 refs., 6 figs., 9 tabs.)

Unclassified Source Term and Radionuclide Data for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 0

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

McCord, John

2004-08-01

This report documents the evaluation of the information and data available on the unclassified source term and radionuclide contamination for Central and Western Pahute Mesa: Corrective Action Units (CAUs) 101 and 102.

Using the method of judgement analysis to address variations in diagnostic decision making

OpenAIRE

Hancock, Helen C; Mason, James M; Murphy, Jerry J

2012-01-01

Abstract Background Heart failure is not a clear-cut diagnosis but a complex clinical syndrome with consequent diagnostic uncertainty. Judgment analysis is a method to help clinical teams to understand how they make complex decisions. The method of judgment analysis was used to determine the factors that influence clinicians' diagnostic decisions about heart failure. Methods Three consultants, three middle grade doctors, and two junior doctors each evaluated 45 patient scenarios. The main out...

Relación entre locus de control, ira y rendimiento deportivo en jugadores de tenis de mesa

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Higinio González-García

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Los objetivos de este estudio fueron comprobar la relación entre el locus de control y el rendimiento de- portivo, y conocer la relación entre el locus de control y las variables de ira. La muestra de la investigación se compuso de 58 jugadores federados de tenis de mesa de toda la geografía española. Los participantes completa- ron un cuestionario sociodemográfico ad hoc , la Escala de Locus de Control (ELC y el Inventario de Expresión de la Ira Estado-Rasgo (STAXI-2. Los resultados revela- ron que no había diferencias de medias en los niveles de locus de control externo en función de la división de juego y del tipo de práctica deportiva (profesionales vs amateurs. Por otro lado, se confirmó la relación entre el locus de control externo y la expresión externa de la ira, encontrándose diferencias estadísticamente signifi- cativas entre la expresión externa de la ira y los grupos de locus de control externo alto y bajo. Finalmente, se concluyó que el nivel de rendimiento deportivo no in- terfería en los niveles de locus de control y, por otro lado, se confirma la relación del locus de control exter- no en la expresión externa de la ira de los jugadores de tenis de mesa. Por lo tanto, el locus de control interno se muestra como una variable protectora importante para intervenir con jugadores y entrenadores.

Trustworthy patient decision aids: a qualitative analysis addressing the risk of competing interests

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Elwyn, G.; Dannenberg, M.; Blaine, A.; Poddar, U.; Durand, M.A.

2016-01-01

OBJECTIVE: Our aim in this study was to examine the competing interest policies and procedures of organisations who develop and maintain patient decision aids. DESIGN: Descriptive and thematic analysis of data collected from a cross-sectional survey of patient decision aid developer's competing

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-01-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process

Multi-criteria decision analysis and environmental risk assessment for nanomaterials

Science.gov (United States)

Linkov, Igor; Satterstrom, F. Kyle; Steevens, Jeffery; Ferguson, Elizabeth; Pleus, Richard C.

2007-08-01

Nanotechnology is a broad and complex discipline that holds great promise for innovations that can benefit mankind. Yet, one must not overlook the wide array of factors involved in managing nanomaterial development, ranging from the technical specifications of the material to possible adverse effects in humans. Other opportunities to evaluate benefits and risks are inherent in environmental health and safety (EHS) issues related to nanotechnology. However, there is currently no structured approach for making justifiable and transparent decisions with explicit trade-offs between the many factors that need to be taken into account. While many possible decision-making approaches exist, we believe that multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a powerful and scientifically sound decision analytical framework for nanomaterial risk assessment and management. This paper combines state-of-the-art research in MCDA methods applicable to nanotechnology with a hypothetical case study for nanomaterial management. The example shows how MCDA application can balance societal benefits against unintended side effects and risks, and how it can also bring together multiple lines of evidence to estimate the likely toxicity and risk of nanomaterials given limited information on physical and chemical properties. The essential contribution of MCDA is to link this performance information with decision criteria and weightings elicited from scientists and managers, allowing visualization and quantification of the trade-offs involved in the decision-making process.

A Benefit-Risk Analysis Approach to Capture Regulatory Decision-Making: Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer.

Science.gov (United States)

Raju, G K; Gurumurthi, K; Domike, R; Kazandjian, D; Blumenthal, G; Pazdur, R; Woodcock, J

2016-12-01

Drug regulators around the world make decisions about drug approvability based on qualitative benefit-risk analyses. There is much interest in quantifying regulatory approaches to benefit and risk. In this work the use of a quantitative benefit-risk analysis was applied to regulatory decision-making about new drugs to treat advanced non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Benefits and risks associated with 20 US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) decisions associated with a set of candidate treatments submitted between 2003 and 2015 were analyzed. For benefit analysis, the median overall survival (OS) was used where available. When not available, OS was estimated based on overall response rate (ORR) or progression-free survival (PFS). Risks were analyzed based on magnitude (or severity) of harm and likelihood of occurrence. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was explored to demonstrate analysis of systematic uncertainty. FDA approval decision outcomes considered were found to be consistent with the benefit-risk logic. © 2016 American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.

A safety decision analysis for Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Abulfaraj, W.H.; Abdul-Fattah, A.F.

1985-01-01

Establishment of a nuclear research facility should be the first step in planning for introducing the nuclear energy to Saudi Arabia. The fuzzy set decision theory is selected among different decision theories to be applied for this analysis. Four research reactors from USA are selected for the present study. The IFDA computer code, based on the fuzzy set theory is applied. Results reveal that the FNR reactor is the best alternative for the case of Saudi Arabian nuclear research facility, and MITR is the second best. 17 refs

Manager’s decision-making in organizations –empirical analysis of bureaucratic vs. learning approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jana Frenová

2010-06-01

Full Text Available The paper is focused on the study of manager’s decision-making with respect to the basic model of learning organization, presented by P. Senge as a system model of management. On one hand, the empirical research was conducted in connection with key dimensions of organizational learning such as: 1. system thinking, 2. personal mastery, 3. mental models, 4. team learning, 5. building shared vision and 6. dynamics causes. On the other hand, the research was connected with the analysis of the bureaucratic logic of decision-making process, characterized by non-functional stability, inflexibility, individualism, power, authority and hierarchy, centralization, vagueness, fragmentariness. The objective of the research was to analyse to what extent manager’s decision–making is based on bureaucratic tools or organizational learning in either complex problem-solving or non-problemsolving decision-making. (MANOVA, method of the repeated measure, intersubject factor – situation: 1. non problematic, 2. problematic. The conclusion of analysis is that there are significant differences in character of solving of problem situation and non-problem situation decision-making: the bureaucratic attributes of decision-making are more intensive in problematic situations while learning approach is more actual in non-problematic situations. The results of our analysis have shown that managers who apply the learning organization attributes in their decision-making. are more successful in problem-solving.

Investment Decision Support for Engineering Projects Based on Risk Correlation Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Liu

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Investment decisions are usually made on the basis of the subjective judgments of experts subjected to the information gap during the preliminary stages of a project. As a consequence, a series of errors in risk prediction and/or decision-making will be generated leading to out of control investment and project failure. In this paper, the variable fuzzy set theory and intelligent algorithms integrated with case-based reasoning are presented. The proposed algorithm manages the numerous fuzzy concepts and variable factors of a project and also sets up the decision-making process in accordance with past cases and experiences. Furthermore, it decreases the calculation difficulty and reduces the decision-making reaction time. Three types of risk correlations combined with different characteristics of engineering projects are summarized, and each of these correlations is expounded at the project investment decision-making stage. Quantitative and qualitative change theories of variable fuzzy sets are also addressed for investment risk warning. The approach presented in this paper enables the risk analysis in a simple and intuitive manner and realizes the integration of objective and subjective risk assessments within the decision-makers' risk expectation.

BENEFIT-COST ANALYSIS IN U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL REGULATORY DECISIONS

OpenAIRE

Easter, K. William; Archibald, Sandra O.

1998-01-01

As the number and cost of environmental regulations have increased over the last thirty years, the regulated community, taxpayers, and policy makers have begun to demand that the benefits of regulations justify their costs. The use of benefit-cost analysis as an integral part of developing new regulations is increasing and the demands and expectations being placed on the method have expanded. Although benefit-cost analysis is expected to play an even greater role in environmental decision mak...

Learning from examples - Generation and evaluation of decision trees for software resource analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Selby, Richard W.; Porter, Adam A.

1988-01-01

A general solution method for the automatic generation of decision (or classification) trees is investigated. The approach is to provide insights through in-depth empirical characterization and evaluation of decision trees for software resource data analysis. The trees identify classes of objects (software modules) that had high development effort. Sixteen software systems ranging from 3,000 to 112,000 source lines were selected for analysis from a NASA production environment. The collection and analysis of 74 attributes (or metrics), for over 4,700 objects, captured information about the development effort, faults, changes, design style, and implementation style. A total of 9,600 decision trees were automatically generated and evaluated. The trees correctly identified 79.3 percent of the software modules that had high development effort or faults, and the trees generated from the best parameter combinations correctly identified 88.4 percent of the modules on the average.

Land subsidence caused by the East Mesa geothermal field, California, observed using SAR interferometry

Science.gov (United States)

Massonnet, D.; Holzer, T.; Vadon, H.

1997-01-01

Interferometric combination of pairs of synthetic aperture radar (SAR) images acquired by the ERS-1 satellite maps the deformation field associated with the activity of the East Mesa geothermal plant, located in southern California. SAR interferometry is applied to this flat area without the need of a digital terrain model. Several combinations are used to ascertain the nature of the phenomenon. Short term interferograms reveal surface phase changes on agricultural fields similar to what had been observed previously with SEASAT radar data. Long term (2 years) interferograms allow the study of land subsidence and improve prior knowledge of the displacement field, and agree with existing, sparse levelling data. This example illustrates the power of the interferometric technique for deriving accurate industrial intelligence as well as its potential for legal action, in cases involving environmental damages. Copyright 1997 by the American Geophysical Union.

Practical results of the MESA 1 line calcinator trial operation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Napravnik, J.; Sazavsky, P.; Skaba, V.; Zahalka, F.; Vild, J.; Kulovany, J.

1987-01-01

Mobile calcination and cementation unit MESA 1 was designed and built by UJV Rez in cooperation with many enterprises, mainly with the Kralovopolske Strojirny Brno. This facility for direct fixation of liquid radioactive wastes was experimentally tested using model non-radioactive solutions and model and actual wastes from the Jaslovske Bohunice nuclear power plant. The calciner was run in trial operation at the Kralovopolske SAtrojirny Brno. A total of 1.3 m 3 of model solutions was processed into 180 kg of calcinate. The fixation of the calcinate in cement, the times of solidification and of hardening and the moisture content of concrete blocks were studied. The application was also tested of the calciner in drying ion exchangers from WWER-440 prior to their bituminization. Following the despatch of the cementation module to the Chernobyl nuclear power plant, the direct calcination module was tested at Dukovany together with an auxiliary module which makes possible self-contained calciner operation. Model non-radioactive solutions from the Dukovany nuclear power plant were treated containing H 3 BO 3 and NaNO 3 as main components. The usability in actual conditions of the mobile calcination and cementation unit for radioactive wastes was tested in a total of about 70 operating hours. (E.S.). 2 figs., 2 refs

Application of Decision Analysis to Evaluate Alternative Research and Development Investments

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Artelli, Michael

1998-01-01

.... In contrast to the current ad hoc approach, decision analysis provides an explicit and easily explained rationale for investment choices, complete and consistent incorporation of multiple objectives...

NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Executive Leaflet

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

2012-01-01

Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

Rough Neutrosophic Multi-Attribute Decision-Making Based on Grey Relational Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kalyan Mondal

2015-01-01

Full Text Available This paper presents rough netrosophic multiattribute decision making based on grey relational analysis. While the concept of neutrosophic sets is a powerful logic to deal with indeterminate and inconsistent data, the theory of rough neutrosophic sets is also a powerful mathematical tool to deal with incompleteness. The rating of all alternatives is expressed with the upper and lower approximation operator and the pair of neutrosophic sets which are characterized by truth-membership degree, indeterminacy-membership degree, and falsitymembership degree. Weight of each attribute is partially known to decision maker. We extend the neutrosophic grey relational analysis method to rough neutrosophic grey relational analysis method and apply it to multiattribute decision making problem. Information entropy method is used to obtain the partially known attribute weights. Accumulated geometric operator is defined to transform rough neutrosophic number (neutrosophic pair to single valued neutrosophic number. Neutrosophic grey relational coefficient is determined by using Hamming distance between each alternative to ideal rough neutrosophic estimates reliability solution and the ideal rough neutrosophic estimates un-reliability solution. Then rough neutrosophic relational degree is defined to determine the ranking order of all alternatives. Finally, a numerical example is provided to illustrate the applicability and efficiency of the proposed approach.

Combining morphological analysis and Bayesian Networks for strategic decision support

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

De Waal, AJ

2007-12-01

Full Text Available Morphological analysis (MA) and Bayesian networks (BN) are two closely related modelling methods, each of which has its advantages and disadvantages for strategic decision support modelling. MA is a method for defining, linking and evaluating...

Decision-making on the integration of renewable energy in the mining industry: A case studies analysis, a cost analysis and a SWOT analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kateryna Zharan

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The mining industry is showing increasing interest in using renewable energy (RE technologies as one of the principles of sustainable mining. This is witnessed in several pilot projects in major mining countries around the world. Positive factors which favor this interest are gaining importance and negative barrier factors seem to be less relevant. For a mine operator, the switch from fossil fuel to RE technologies is the outcome of decision making processes. So far, research about such decision making on the use of RE in mining is underdeveloped. The purpose of this paper to present a practical decision rule based on a principle of indifference between RE and fossil fuel technologies and on appropriate time management. To achieve this objective, three investigations are made: (i a case studies analysis, (ii a comparative cost analysis, and (iii a SWOT analysis.

Keeping Energy Savings in the LOOP: Mesa Lane Partners Case Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

None

2013-03-01

Mesa Lane Partners (MLP) partnered with the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) to develop and implement solutions to a build a new, low-energy mixed-use building that consumes at least 50% less energy than requirements set by Energy Standard 90.1-2007 of the American Society of Heating, Refrigerating, and Air-conditioning Engineers (ASHRAE), the American National Standards Institute (ANSI), and the Illuminating Engineering Society of America (IESNA), as part of DOE’s Commercial Building Partnerships (CBP) Program. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) provided technical expertise in support of this DOE program. The privately developed 46,000-square-foot LOOP project, which is intended to provide affordable off-campus student housing in an underserved community next to University of California at Santa Barbara, will contain more than 7,000 square feet of retail space, a roof deck, an event space, a gym, and 48 apartments. The project developer, MLP, is aiming to exceed CBP requirement, targeting energy consumption that is at least 65% less than that required by the standard. If the LOOP meets this goal, it is expected to achieve Leadership in Energy and Environmental Design (LEED) Gold certification.

Innovation and decision-making process in reverse logistics: a bibliometric analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fernando Antonio Guimarães Tenório

2014-05-01

Full Text Available This work aimed to make a bibliometric analysis on empirical studies that focus on the reverse logistics process. Papers published in two major events of management and a production engineering were collected during the years 2007-2012. To perform the analysis assumptions were adopted as the concepts of innovation and decision-making. 43 articles were analyzed and it was found that, in most cases, organizations choose to deploy reverse logistics as a means to solving problems related to environmental laws and regulations and after its implementation, the decision-making process related to the network of companies that perform reverse logistics remains restricted to the adopter company, thus becoming a centralized decision-making process. It was also found that reverse logistics is, in most cases, an innovation in the supply chain, it provides a new way to manage and operate the return and recycling of waste products and generating competitive advantages in the form of increased net income and better picture of the organization to its partners and customers.

Design of Graph Analysis Model to support Decision Making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

An, Sang Ha; Lee, Sung Jin; Chang, Soon Heung; Kim, Sung Ho; Kim, Tae Woon

2005-01-01

Korea is meeting the growing electric power needs by using nuclear, fissile, hydro energy and so on. But we can not use fissile energy forever, and the people's consideration about nature has been changed. So we have to prepare appropriate energy by the conditions before people need more energy. And we should prepare dynamic response because people's need would be changed as the time goes on. So we designed graphic analysis model (GAM) for the dynamic analysis of decision on the energy sources. It can support Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) analysis based on Graphic User Interface

Using decision analysis to support proactive management of emerging infectious wildlife diseases

Science.gov (United States)

Grant, Evan H. Campbell; Muths, Erin L.; Katz, Rachel A.; Canessa, Stefano; Adams, Michael J.; Ballard, Jennifer R.; Berger, Lee; Briggs, Cheryl J.; Coleman, Jeremy; Gray, Matthew J.; Harris, M. Camille; Harris, Reid N.; Hossack, Blake R.; Huyvaert, Kathryn P.; Kolby, Jonathan E.; Lips, Karen R.; Lovich, Robert E.; McCallum, Hamish I.; Mendelson, Joseph R.; Nanjappa, Priya; Olson, Deanna H.; Powers, Jenny G.; Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Schmidt, Benedikt R.; Spitzen-van der Sluijs, Annemarieke; Watry, Mary Kay; Woodhams, Douglas C.; White, C. LeAnn

2017-01-01

Despite calls for improved responses to emerging infectious diseases in wildlife, management is seldom considered until a disease has been detected in affected populations. Reactive approaches may limit the potential for control and increase total response costs. An alternative, proactive management framework can identify immediate actions that reduce future impacts even before a disease is detected, and plan subsequent actions that are conditional on disease emergence. We identify four main obstacles to developing proactive management strategies for the newly discovered salamander pathogen Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal). Given that uncertainty is a hallmark of wildlife disease management and that associated decisions are often complicated by multiple competing objectives, we advocate using decision analysis to create and evaluate trade-offs between proactive (pre-emergence) and reactive (post-emergence) management options. Policy makers and natural resource agency personnel can apply principles from decision analysis to improve strategies for countering emerging infectious diseases.

Decision analysis of Hanford underground storage tank waste retrieval systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Merkhofer, M.W.; Bitz, D.A.; Berry, D.L.; Jardine, L.J.

1994-05-01

A decision analysis approach has been proposed for planning the retrieval of hazardous, radioactive, and mixed wastes from underground storage tanks. This paper describes the proposed approach and illustrates its application to the single-shell storage tanks (SSTs) at Hanford, Washington

Enhanced electricity system analysis for decision making - A reference book

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

2000-01-01

The objective of electricity system analysis in support of decision making is to provide comparative assessment results upon which relevant policy choices between alternative technology options and supply strategies can be based. This reference book offers analysts, planners and decision makers documented information on enhanced approaches to electricity system analysis, that can assist in achieving this objective. The book describes the main elements of comprehensive electricity system analysis and outlines an advanced integrated analysis and decision making framework for the electric power sector. Emphasis is placed on mechanisms for building consensus between interested and affected parties, and on aspects of planning that go beyond the traditional economic optimisation approach. The scope and contents of the book cover the topics to be addressed in decision making for the power sector and the process of integrating economic, social, health and environmental aspects in the comparative assessment of alternative options and strategies. The book describes and discusses overall frameworks, processes and state of the art methods and techniques available to analysts and planners for carrying out comparative assessment studies, in order to provide sound information to decision makers. This reference book is published as part of a series of technical reports and documents prepared in the framework of the inter-agency joint project (DECADES) on databases and methodologies for comparative assessment of different energy sources for electricity generation. The overall objective of the DECADES project is to enhance capabilities for incorporating economic, social, health and environmental issues in the comparative assessment of electricity generation options and strategies in the process of decision making for the power sector. The project, established in 1992, is carried out jointly by the European Commission (EC), the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific

A Flood Risk Assessment of Quang Nam, Vietnam Using Spatial Multicriteria Decision Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chinh Luu

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Vietnam is highly vulnerable to flood and storm impacts. Holistic flood risk assessment maps that adequately consider flood risk factors of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability are not available. These are vital for flood risk preparedness and disaster mitigation measures at the local scale. Unfortunately, there is a lack of knowledge about spatial multicriteria decision analysis and flood risk analysis more broadly in Vietnam. In response to this need, we identify and quantify flood risk components in Quang Nam province through spatial multicriteria decision analysis. The study presents a new approach to local flood risk assessment mapping, which combines historical flood marks with exposure and vulnerability data. The flood risk map output could assist and empower decision-makers in undertaking flood risk management activities in the province. Our study demonstrates a methodology to build flood risk assessment maps using flood mark, exposure and vulnerability data, which could be applied in other provinces in Vietnam.

Risky decision making in Attention-Deficit/Hyperactivity Disorder: A meta-regression analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Dekkers, Tycho J; Popma, Arne; Agelink van Rentergem, Joost A; Bexkens, Anika; Huizenga, Hilde M

2016-04-01

ADHD has been associated with various forms of risky real life decision making, for example risky driving, unsafe sex and substance abuse. However, results from laboratory studies on decision making deficits in ADHD have been inconsistent, probably because of between study differences. We therefore performed a meta-regression analysis in which 37 studies (n ADHD=1175; n Control=1222) were included, containing 52 effect sizes. The overall analysis yielded a small to medium effect size (standardized mean difference=.36, pdecision making than control groups. There was a trend for a moderating influence of co-morbid Disruptive Behavior Disorders (DBD): studies including more participants with co-morbid DBD had larger effect sizes. No moderating influence of co-morbid internalizing disorders, age or task explicitness was found. These results indicate that ADHD is related to increased risky decision making in laboratory settings, which tended to be more pronounced if ADHD is accompanied by DBD. We therefore argue that risky decision making should have a more prominent role in research on the neuropsychological and -biological mechanisms of ADHD, which can be useful in ADHD assessment and intervention. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Marcos de interacción y construcción del sentido: el caso del lexema mesa en expresiones locativas con las preposiciones sobre, en y a

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patricia Carmen Hernández

2014-11-01

Full Text Available Nuestra contribución analiza el comportamiento semántico-pragmático del ítem léxico mesa en combinación con las preposiciones sobre, en y a en expresiones locativas. La perspectiva presentada en este artículo es que (i más que una simple etiqueta referencial, las palabras son modos de acceso a la experiencia subjetiva y social de los hablantes y (ii la construcción del sentido es un proceso holístico que supone la determinación recíproca de las unidades lingüísticas. Se exploran las relaciones entre el lexema mesa, las preposiciones y los verbos empleados más frecuentemente en construcciones locativas en base a un estudio cualitativo de 686 ocurrencias. Enmarcada en la Lingüística Cognitiva, nuestra aproximación teórica se basa substancialmente en los conceptos de rol télico, marcos de interacción, zonas activas y conexiones metonímicas. 

Tactical decision making under stress (TADMUS) decision support system

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1996-01-01

A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes and cognitive analysis of the decision making problems faced by Navy tactical officers in a shipboard Combat Information Center. Baseline testing in high intensity, peace keeping, littoral scenarios indicated...

True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms: A decision analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Takao, Hidemasa; Nojo, Takeshi; Ohtomo, Kuni

2010-01-01

Purpose: True pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms are rare. No definitive study evaluating the natural history of these lesions or their preferred method of treatment has been published. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms using a Markov model. Materials and methods: With the use of a Markov model, we performed a decision analysis to evaluate the outcome of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms. The risk of rupture and the mortality of preventive treatment are unknown. Therefore, we performed sensitivity analysis using these parameters. Effectiveness was measured in life expectancy. Results: For 80-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 1.4%, greater than 2.6%, greater than 3.8%, and greater than 4.8% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. For 50-year-old patients, preventive treatment was dominated by no treatment if mortality rates of preventive treatment were greater than 3.3%, greater than 5.9%, greater than 8.0%, and greater than 9.7% at annual rupture rates of 1%, 2%, 3%, and 4%, respectively. Conclusion: The effectiveness of preventive treatment of unruptured pancreaticoduodenal artery aneurysms depends on the aneurysm rupture rate, mortality rate of preventive treatment, and patient age. Taking into account the effects of these parameters is important in making treatment decisions.

Assumptions and Policy Decisions for Vital Area Identification Analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Myungsu; Bae, Yeon-Kyoung; Lee, Youngseung [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-10-15

U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission and IAEA guidance indicate that certain assumptions and policy questions should be addressed to a Vital Area Identification (VAI) process. Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power conducted a VAI based on current Design Basis Threat and engineering judgement to identify APR1400 vital areas. Some of the assumptions were inherited from Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) as a sabotage logic model was based on PSA logic tree and equipment location data. This paper illustrates some important assumptions and policy decisions for APR1400 VAI analysis. Assumptions and policy decisions could be overlooked at the beginning stage of VAI, however they should be carefully reviewed and discussed among engineers, plant operators, and regulators. Through APR1400 VAI process, some of the policy concerns and assumptions for analysis were applied based on document research and expert panel discussions. It was also found that there are more assumptions to define for further studies for other types of nuclear power plants. One of the assumptions is mission time, which was inherited from PSA.

Decision tree analysis to evaluate dry cow strategies under UK conditions

OpenAIRE

Berry, E.A.; Hogeveen, H.; Hillerton, J.E.

2005-01-01

Economic decisions on animal health strategies address the cost-benefit aspect along with animal welfare and public health concerns. Decision tree analysis at an individual cow level highlighted that there is little economic difference between the use of either dry cow antibiotic or an internal teat sealant in preventing a new intramammary infection in a cow free of infection in all quarters of the mammary gland at drying off. However, a potential net loss of over pound20 per cow might occur ...

An Evaluation on Factors Influencing Decision making for Malaysia Disaster Management: The Confirmatory Factor Analysis Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Zubir, S. N. A.; Thiruchelvam, S.; Mustapha, K. N. M.; Che Muda, Z.; Ghazali, A.; Hakimie, H.

2017-12-01

For the past few years, natural disaster has been the subject of debate in disaster management especially in flood disaster. Each year, natural disaster results in significant loss of life, destruction of homes and public infrastructure, and economic hardship. Hence, an effective and efficient flood disaster management would assure non-futile efforts for life saving. The aim of this article is to examine the relationship between approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic to decision making for flood disaster management in Malaysia. The key elements of decision making in the disaster management were studied based on the literature. Questionnaire surveys were administered among lead agencies at East Coast of Malaysia in the state of Kelantan and Pahang. A total of 307 valid responses had been obtained for further analysis. Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA) and Confirmatory Factor Analysis (CFA) were carried out to analyse the measurement model involved in the study. The CFA for second-order reflective and first-order reflective measurement model indicates that approach, decision maker, influence factor, result, and ethic have a significant and direct effect on decision making during disaster. The results from this study showed that decision- making during disaster is an important element for disaster management to necessitate a successful collaborative decision making. The measurement model is accepted to proceed with further analysis known as Structural Equation Modeling (SEM) and can be assessed for the future research.

A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task.

Science.gov (United States)

Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

2017-12-01

The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159-182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of word-likeness evidence for both words and non-words. The Retrieving Effectively from Memory model of Lexical-Decision (REM-LD; Wagenmakers et al., Cognitive Psychology, 48(3), 332-367, 2004) provides a comprehensive explanation of lexical-decision data and makes the prediction that word-likeness evidence is more variable for words than non-words and that higher frequency words are more variable than lower frequency words. To test these predictions, we analyzed five lexical-decision data sets with the DDM. For all data sets, drift-rate variability changed across word frequency and non-word conditions. For the most part, REM-LD's predictions about the ordering of evidence variability across stimuli in the lexical-decision task were confirmed.

Demonstration of risk-based decision analysis in remedial alternative selection and design

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Evans, E.K.; Duffield, G.M.; Massmann, J.W.; Freeze, R.A.; Stephenson, D.E.

1993-01-01

This study demonstrates the use of risk-based decision analysis (Massmann and Freeze 1987a, 1987b) in the selection and design of an engineering alternative for groundwater remediation at a waste site at the Savannah River Site, a US Department of Energy facility in South Carolina. The investigation focuses on the remediation and closure of the H-Area Seepage Basins, an inactive disposal site that formerly received effluent water from a nearby production facility. A previous study by Duffield et al. (1992), which used risk-based decision analysis to screen a number of ground-water remediation alternatives under consideration for this site, indicated that the most attractive remedial option is ground-water extraction by wells coupled with surface water discharge of treated effluent. The aim of the present study is to demonstrate the iterative use of risk-based decision analysis throughout the design of a particular remedial alternative. In this study, we consider the interaction between two episodes of aquifer testing over a 6-year period and the refinement of a remedial extraction well system design. Using a three-dimensional ground-water flow model, this study employs (1) geostatistics and Monte Carlo techniques to simulate hydraulic conductivity as a stochastic process and (2) Bayesian updating and conditional simulation to investigate multiple phases of aquifer testing. In our evaluation of a remedial alternative, we compute probabilistic costs associated with the failure of an alternative to completely capture a simulated contaminant plume. The results of this study demonstrate the utility of risk-based decision analysis as a tool for improving the design of a remedial alternative through the course of phased data collection at a remedial site

Finding the Most Preferred Decision-Making Unit in Data Envelopment Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shirin Mohammadi

2016-01-01

Full Text Available Data envelopment analysis (DEA evaluates the efficiency of the transformation of a decision-making unit’s (DMU’s inputs into its outputs. Finding the benchmarks of a DMU is one of the important purposes of DEA. The benchmarks of a DMU in DEA are obtained by solving some linear programming models. Currently, the obtained benchmarks are just found by using the information of the data of inputs and outputs without considering the decision-maker’s preferences. If the preferences of the decision-maker are available, it is very important to obtain the most preferred DMU as a benchmark of the under-assessment DMU. In this regard, we present an algorithm to find the most preferred DMU based on the utility function of decision-maker’s preferences by exploring some properties on that. The proposed method is constructed based on the projection of the gradient of the utility function on the production possibility set’s frontier.

Multi-criteria decision analysis using hydrological indicators for decision support - a conceptual framework.

Science.gov (United States)

Butchart-Kuhlmann, Daniel; Kralisch, Sven; Meinhardt, Markus; Fleischer, Melanie

2017-04-01

Assessing the quantity and quality of water available in water stressed environments under various potential climate and land-use changes is necessary for good water and environmental resources management and governance. Within the region covered by the Southern African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adaptive Land Management (SASSCAL) project, such areas are common. One goal of the SASSCAL project is to develop and provide an integrated decision support system (DSS) with which decision makers (DMs) within a given catchment can obtain objective information regarding potential changes in water flow quantity and timing. The SASSCAL DSS builds upon existing data storage and distribution capability, through the SASSCAL Information System (IS), as well as the J2000 hydrological model. Using output from validated J2000 models, the SASSCAL DSS incorporates the calculation of a range of hydrological indicators based upon Indicators of Hydrological Alteration/Environmental Flow Components (IHA/EFC) calculated for a historic time series (pre-impact) and a set of model simulations based upon a selection of possible climate and land-use change scenarios (post-impact). These indicators, obtained using the IHA software package, are then used as input for a multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) undertaken using the open source diviz software package. The results of these analyses will provide DMs with an indication as to how various hydrological indicators within a catchment may be altered under different future scenarios, as well providing a ranking of how each scenario is preferred according to different DM preferences. Scenarios are represented through a combination of model input data and parameter settings in J2000, and preferences are represented through criteria weighting in the MCDA. Here, the methodology is presented and applied to the J2000 Luanginga model results using a set of hypothetical decision maker preference values as input for an MCDA based on

'Black star': uma mutação somática natural da uva fina de mesa cv. Brasil

OpenAIRE

Roberto,Sergio Ruffo; Assis,Adriane Marinho de; Genta,Werner; Yamamoto,Lilian Yukari; Sato,Alessandro Jefferson

2012-01-01

A uva fina de mesa 'Black Star', originada de uma mutação somática da uva cv. Brasil em Marialva-PR, é descrita quanto às suas principais características físico-químicas e produtivas. Suas bagas, com sementes, apresentam formato elipsoide alongado com coloração vermelho-escura, tendendo ao preto durante a maturação plena. O ciclo, o desempenho produtivo e a suscetibilidade às doenças fúngicas assemelham-se aos da cv. Itália. Durante a maturação plena, apresenta teor médio de sólidos solúveis ...

Implications of Decision Making Research for Decision Support and Displays

OpenAIRE

Morrison, Jeffrey G.; Kelly, Richard T.; Moore, Ronald A.; Hutchins, Susan G.

1998-01-01

To appear in J. A. Cannon-Bowers & E. Salas (Eds.), Decision Making Under Stress: Implications for Training and Simulation. A prototype decision support system (DSS) was developed to enhance Navy tactical decision making based on naturalistic decision processes. Displays were developed to support critical decision making tasks through recognition-primed and explanation-based reasoning processes, and cognitive analysis was conducted of the decision making problems faced by Navy ...

Does a reactor need a safety backfit. Case study on communicating decision and risk analysis information to managers

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brown, R.V.; Ulvila, J.W.

1988-06-01

An approach to communicating decision and risk analysis findings to managers is illustrated in a real case context. This article consists essentially of a report prepared for senior managers of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission to help them make a reactor safety decision. It illustrates the communication of decision analysis findings relating to technical risks, costs, and benefits in support of a major risk management decision: whether or not to require a safety backfit. Its focus is on the needs of decision makers, and it introduces some novel communication devices.

Mi Caída: Testimonio histórico del ex presidente de Bolivia Carlos Mesa Gisbert sobre su “presidencia sitiada” (2003/2005

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Juan Eduardo Mendoza Pinto

2016-10-01

Full Text Available Presentamos un documento inédito sobre los conmovedores acontecimientos vividos por el Estado y la sociedad boliviana en la difícil coyuntura 2003/2005, asociada a la presidencia de Carlos Mesa G., que nos deja aquí una testificación directa, del más alto nivel, sobre ese trance histórico, de indudable valor para la historia contemporánea de América Latina.

Determining the best treatment for simple bone cyst: a decision analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lee, Seung Yeol; Chung, Chin Youb; Lee, Kyoung Min; Sung, Ki Hyuk; Won, Sung Hun; Choi, In Ho; Cho, Tae-Joon; Yoo, Won Joon; Yeo, Ji Hyun; Park, Moon Seok

2014-03-01

The treatment of simple bone cysts (SBC) in children varies significantly among physicians. This study examined which procedure is better for the treatment of SBC, using a decision analysis based on current published evidence. A decision tree focused on five treatment modalities of SBC (observation, steroid injection, autologous bone marrow injection, decompression, and curettage with bone graft) were created. Each treatment modality was further branched, according to the presence and severity of complications. The probabilities of all cases were obtained by literature review. A roll back tool was utilized to determine the most preferred treatment modality. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed to determine the threshold value of the treatment modalities. Two-way sensitivity analysis was utilized to examine the joint impact of changes in probabilities of two parameters. The decision model favored autologous bone marrow injection. The expected value of autologous bone marrow injection was 0.9445, while those of observation, steroid injection, decompression, and curettage and bone graft were 0.9318, 0.9400, 0.9395, and 0.9342, respectively. One-way sensitivity analysis showed that autologous bone marrow injection was better than that of decompression for the expected value when the rate of pathologic fracture, or positive symptoms of SBC after autologous bone marrow injection, was lower than 20.4%. In our study, autologous bone marrow injection was found to be the best choice of treatment of SBC. However, the results were sensitive to the rate of pathologic fracture after treatment of SBC. Physicians should consider the possibility of pathologic fracture when they determine a treatment method for SBC.

Econometric Analysis of Bulk Shipping: implications for investment strategies and financial decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

S. Tsolakis

2005-01-01

textabstractThis thesis provides an econometric analysis of the bulk shipping markets and the implications for shipping investment and financial decision making. Chapter 1 sets the scene by providing a historic analysis of bulk shipping markets over the last 55 years. From this analysis, four

A Primer on Bayesian Decision Analysis With an Application to a Kidney Transplant Decision.

Science.gov (United States)

Neapolitan, Richard; Jiang, Xia; Ladner, Daniela P; Kaplan, Bruce

2016-03-01

A clinical decision support system (CDSS) is a computer program, which is designed to assist health care professionals with decision making tasks. A well-developed CDSS weighs the benefits of therapy versus the cost in terms of loss of quality of life and financial loss and recommends the decision that can be expected to provide maximum overall benefit. This article provides an introduction to developing CDSSs using Bayesian networks, such CDSS can help with the often complex decisions involving transplants. First, we review Bayes theorem in the context of medical decision making. Then, we introduce Bayesian networks, which can model probabilistic relationships among many related variables and are based on Bayes theorem. Next, we discuss influence diagrams, which are Bayesian networks augmented with decision and value nodes and which can be used to develop CDSSs that are able to recommend decisions that maximize the expected utility of the predicted outcomes to the patient. By way of comparison, we examine the benefit and challenges of using the Kidney Donor Risk Index as the sole decision tool. Finally, we develop a schema for an influence diagram that models generalized kidney transplant decisions and show how the influence diagram approach can provide the clinician and the potential transplant recipient with a valuable decision support tool.

A diffusion decision model analysis of evidence variability in the lexical decision task

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Tillman, Gabriel; Osth, Adam F.; van Ravenzwaaij, Don; Heathcote, Andrew

2017-01-01

The lexical-decision task is among the most commonly used paradigms in psycholinguistics. In both the signal-detection theory and Diffusion Decision Model (DDM; Ratcliff, Gomez, & McKoon, Psychological Review, 111, 159–182, 2004) frameworks, lexical-decisions are based on a continuous source of

Competitor analysis for Feelback Ltd - A base for strategic decision making

OpenAIRE

Markkanen, Sini

2012-01-01

The aim of this research was to execute a competitor analysis for Feelback Ltd. The analysis focused on finding the company’s current competitors operating in Finland. The commissioner Feelback intended to use the competitor information in strategic decision making, such as planning the company’s operations in the competitive environment. The competitor analysis found 14 competitors which were grouped into direct, indirect and potential competitors. As a conclusion, it can be stated t...

Beyond utilitarianism: a method for analyzing competing ethical principles in a decision analysis of liver transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Volk, Michael L; Lok, Anna S F; Ubel, Peter A; Vijan, Sandeep

2008-01-01

The utilitarian foundation of decision analysis limits its usefulness for many social policy decisions. In this study, the authors examine a method to incorporate competing ethical principles in a decision analysis of liver transplantation for a patient with acute liver failure (ALF). A Markov model was constructed to compare the benefit of transplantation for a patient with ALF versus the harm caused to other patients on the waiting list and to determine the lowest acceptable 5-y posttransplant survival for the ALF patient. The weighting of the ALF patient and other patients was then adjusted using a multiattribute variable incorporating utilitarianism, urgency, and other principles such as fair chances. In the base-case analysis, the strategy of transplanting the ALF patient resulted in a 0.8% increase in the risk of death and a utility loss of 7.8 quality-adjusted days of life for each of the other patients on the waiting list. These harms cumulatively outweighed the benefit of transplantation for an ALF patient having a posttransplant survival of less than 48% at 5 y. However, the threshold for an acceptable posttransplant survival for the ALF patient ranged from 25% to 56% at 5 y, depending on the ethical principles involved. The results of the decision analysis vary depending on the ethical perspective. This study demonstrates how competing ethical principles can be numerically incorporated in a decision analysis.

Using decision trees and their ensembles for analysis of NIR spectroscopic data

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kucheryavskiy, Sergey V.

and interpretation of the models. In this presentation, we are going to discuss an applicability of decision trees based methods (including gradient boosting) for solving classification and regression tasks with NIR spectra as predictors. We will cover such aspects as evaluation, optimization and validation......Advanced machine learning methods, like convolutional neural networks and decision trees, became extremely popular in the last decade. This, first of all, is directly related to the current boom in Big data analysis, where traditional statistical methods are not efficient. According to the kaggle.......com — the most popular online resource for Big data problems and solutions — methods based on decision trees and their ensembles are most widely used for solving the problems. It can be noted that the decision trees and convolutional neural networks are not very popular in Chemometrics. One of the reasons...

NATO Guide for Judgement-Based Operational Analysis in Defence Decision Making : Client-Oriented Volume

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wijnmalen, D.J.D.; et al

2012-01-01

Judgment plays an important role in all Operational Analysis (OA). NATO practitioners have determined that approaches in OA that are based on human judgement are increasingly critical to defence decision making. The purpose of the NATO Guide for Judgement-Based OA in Defence Decision Making is to

Decision Trajectories in Dementia Care Networks: Decisions and Related Key Events.

Science.gov (United States)

Groen-van de Ven, Leontine; Smits, Carolien; Oldewarris, Karen; Span, Marijke; Jukema, Jan; Eefsting, Jan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra

2017-10-01

This prospective multiperspective study provides insight into the decision trajectories of people with dementia by studying the decisions made and related key events. This study includes three waves of interviews, conducted between July 2010 and July 2012, with 113 purposefully selected respondents (people with beginning to advanced stages of dementia and their informal and professional caregivers) completed in 12 months (285 interviews). Our multilayered qualitative analysis consists of content analysis, timeline methods, and constant comparison. Four decision themes emerged-managing daily life, arranging support, community living, and preparing for the future. Eight key events delineate the decision trajectories of people with dementia. Decisions and key events differ between people with dementia living alone and living with a caregiver. Our study clarifies that decisions relate not only to the disease but to living with the dementia. Individual differences in decision content and sequence may effect shared decision-making and advance care planning.

Decision Support System Requirements Definition for Human Extravehicular Activity Based on Cognitive Work Analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Matthew James; McGuire, Kerry M; Feigh, Karen M

2017-06-01

The design and adoption of decision support systems within complex work domains is a challenge for cognitive systems engineering (CSE) practitioners, particularly at the onset of project development. This article presents an example of applying CSE techniques to derive design requirements compatible with traditional systems engineering to guide decision support system development. Specifically, it demonstrates the requirements derivation process based on cognitive work analysis for a subset of human spaceflight operations known as extravehicular activity . The results are presented in two phases. First, a work domain analysis revealed a comprehensive set of work functions and constraints that exist in the extravehicular activity work domain. Second, a control task analysis was performed on a subset of the work functions identified by the work domain analysis to articulate the translation of subject matter states of knowledge to high-level decision support system requirements. This work emphasizes an incremental requirements specification process as a critical component of CSE analyses to better situate CSE perspectives within the early phases of traditional systems engineering design.

European antitrust policy 1957-2004: an analysis of Commission decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

2010-01-01

This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957 up to and including 2004. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions under Articles 81, 82, and 86 of the European Community

A life cycle analysis approach to D and D decision-making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yuracko, K.L.; Gresalfi, M.; Yerace, P.; Krstich, M.; Gerrick, D.

1998-05-01

This paper describes a life cycle analysis (LCA) approach that makes decontamination and decommissioning (D and D) of US Department of Energy facilities more efficient and more responsive to the concerns of the society. With the considerable complexity of D and D projects and their attendant environmental and health consequences, projects can no longer be designed based on engineering and economic criteria alone. Using the LCA D and D approach, the evaluation of material disposition alternatives explicitly includes environmental impacts, health and safety impacts, socioeconomic impacts, and stakeholder attitudes -- in addition to engineering and economic criteria. Multi-attribute decision analysis is used to take into consideration the uncertainties and value judgments that are an important part of all material disposition decisions. Use of the LCA D and D approach should lead to more appropriate selections of material disposition pathways and a decision-making process that is both understandable and defensible. The methodology and procedures of the LCA D and D approach are outlined and illustrated by an application of the approach at the Department of Energy's West Valley Demonstration Project. Specifically, LCA was used to aid decisions on disposition of soil and concrete from the Tank Pad D and D Project. A decision tree and the Pollution Prevention/Waste Minimization Users Guide for Environmental Restoration Projects were used to identify possible alternatives for disposition of the soil and concrete. Eight alternatives encompassing source reduction, segregation, treatment, and disposal were defined for disposition of the soil; two alternatives were identified for disposition of the concrete. Preliminary results suggest that segregation and treatment are advantageous in the disposition of both the soil and the concrete. This and other recent applications illustrate the strength and ease of application of the LCA D and D approach

Decision support for farmers in Africa: Analysis of the roles and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Decision support for farmers in Africa: Analysis of the roles and ... producers to access more consumable, accurate and timely information for making informed choices. ... To capitalise on 'big data', the sub-Saharan African grain industry needs ...

Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

2009-01-01

Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

Global analysis of dynamical decision-making models through local computation around the hidden saddle.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Laura Trotta

Full Text Available Bistable dynamical switches are frequently encountered in mathematical modeling of biological systems because binary decisions are at the core of many cellular processes. Bistable switches present two stable steady-states, each of them corresponding to a distinct decision. In response to a transient signal, the system can flip back and forth between these two stable steady-states, switching between both decisions. Understanding which parameters and states affect this switch between stable states may shed light on the mechanisms underlying the decision-making process. Yet, answering such a question involves analyzing the global dynamical (i.e., transient behavior of a nonlinear, possibly high dimensional model. In this paper, we show how a local analysis at a particular equilibrium point of bistable systems is highly relevant to understand the global properties of the switching system. The local analysis is performed at the saddle point, an often disregarded equilibrium point of bistable models but which is shown to be a key ruler of the decision-making process. Results are illustrated on three previously published models of biological switches: two models of apoptosis, the programmed cell death and one model of long-term potentiation, a phenomenon underlying synaptic plasticity.

Reduced thermal resistance in AlGaN/GaN multi-mesa-channel high electron mobility transistors

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Asubar, Joel T., E-mail: joel@rciqe.hokudai.ac.jp; Yatabe, Zenji; Hashizume, Tamotsu [Research Center for Integrated Quantum Electronics (RCIQE) and Graduate School of Information Science and Technology, Hokkaido University, Sapporo (Japan); Japan Science and Technology Agency (JST), CREST, 102-0075 Tokyo (Japan)

2014-08-04

Dramatic reduction of thermal resistance was achieved in AlGaN/GaN Multi-Mesa-Channel (MMC) high electron mobility transistors (HEMTs) on sapphire substrates. Compared with the conventional planar device, the MMC HEMT exhibits much less negative slope of the I{sub D}-V{sub DS} curves at high V{sub DS} regime, indicating less self-heating. Using a method proposed by Menozzi and co-workers, we obtained a thermal resistance of 4.8 K-mm/W at ambient temperature of ∼350 K and power dissipation of ∼9 W/mm. This value compares well to 4.1 K-mm/W, which is the thermal resistance of AlGaN/GaN HEMTs on expensive single crystal diamond substrates and the lowest reported value in literature.

Cryogenic scanning laser microscopy. Investigation of large BSCCO mesas and development of a polarizing microscope

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Guenon, Stefan Alexander

2011-01-01

This thesis is divided into two parts. Concerning the first part: Motivated by the discovery of coherent Terahertz emission from large sized Bi_2Sr_2CaCu_2O_8 stacks of intrinsic Josephson Junctions by Ozyuzer et al., low-temperature laser scanning microscopy (LTSLM) was used to investigate similar samples. In LTSLM a focused laser beam at position (x,y) is heating the sample in its vicinity. Simultaneously the electrical resistance of the sample is monitored by 4- or 2-wire sensing. By blanking the laser beam and using lock-in technique the response, i.e., the beam induced voltage change ΔV(x,y) to the heat distribution at the location (x,y) can be detected. Scanning the laser beam and mapping the response ΔV(x,y) leads to the so-called voltage image of the sample. Depending on the sample under investigation this voltage image is a map of all kinds of physical properties. This experimental technique was used with two objectives. First, the plasma wave causing the THz emission should be imaged, and second, the phenomenon of self-heating, which is considerable for large mesas, should be investigated. Indeed, it was possible to map a standing wave pattern at bias points with low currents, where Ozyuzer et al. have detected THz radiation. At high currents, where the back bending in the current-voltage relation indicates strong self heating, a feature appears in the LTSLM voltage images, which was clearly identified as an electro-thermal domain (hot spot) created by the temperature dependence of the c-axis resistivity in the Bi_2Sr_2CaCu_2O_8-mesa. In this bias interval a standing wave pattern appears beside this feature at certain bias points. In order to investigate whether this standing wave pattern is associated with THz emission, a simple interferometer with a bolometer as detector was realized. With the help of this set-up it was possible to detect THz radiation from mesas at high bias currents (hot spot bias regime) and to determine its frequency. It could be

Decision tree analysis to stratify risk of de novo non-melanoma skin cancer following liver transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Tanaka, Tomohiro; Voigt, Michael D

2018-03-01

Non-melanoma skin cancer (NMSC) is the most common de novo malignancy in liver transplant (LT) recipients; it behaves more aggressively and it increases mortality. We used decision tree analysis to develop a tool to stratify and quantify risk of NMSC in LT recipients. We performed Cox regression analysis to identify which predictive variables to enter into the decision tree analysis. Data were from the Organ Procurement Transplant Network (OPTN) STAR files of September 2016 (n = 102984). NMSC developed in 4556 of the 105984 recipients, a mean of 5.6 years after transplant. The 5/10/20-year rates of NMSC were 2.9/6.3/13.5%, respectively. Cox regression identified male gender, Caucasian race, age, body mass index (BMI) at LT, and sirolimus use as key predictive or protective factors for NMSC. These factors were entered into a decision tree analysis. The final tree stratified non-Caucasians as low risk (0.8%), and Caucasian males > 47 years, BMI decision tree model accurately stratifies the risk of developing NMSC in the long-term after LT.

Modelling the evolution of solar-mass stars with a range of metallicities using MESA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jones E.F.

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The nuclides 1,2H, 3,4He, 7Li, 7Be, 8B, 12,13C, 13-15N, 14-18O, 17-19F, 18-22Ne, 22Mg, and 24Mg were used in the code package MESA (Modules for Experiments in Stellar Astrophysics[Paxton] to model a one-solar-mass star with a range of metallicities, z, from 0 to 0.1. On HR diagrams of each star model’s luminosity and effective temperature from before zero-age main sequence (pre-ZAMS to white dwarf, oscillations were noted in the horizontal branch at intervals from z = 0 to 0.0070. At z, = 0, the calculated stellar lifetime is 6.09x109 years. The calculated lifetime of the model stars increases to a maximum of 1.25x1010 years at z = 0.022 and then decreases to 2.59x109 years at z = 0.1. A piecewise fit of the model lifetimes vs. metallicity was obtained.

Core drilling provides information about Santa Fe Group aquifer system beneath Albuquerque's West Mesa

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, B.D.; Connell, S.D.; Hawley, J.W.; Stone, B.D.

1998-01-01

Core samples from the upper ???1500 ft of the Santa Fe Group in the Albuquerque West Mesa area provide a first-hand look at the sediments and at subsurface stratigraphic relationships in this important part of the basin-fill aquifer system. Two major hydrostratigraphic subunits consisting of a lower coarse-grained, sandy interval and an overlying fine-grained, interbedded silty sand and clay interval lie beneath the water table at the 98th St core hole. Borehole electrical conductivity measurements reproduce major textural changes observed in the recovered cores and support subsurface correlations of hydrostratigraphic units in the Santa Fe Group aquifer system based on geophysical logs. Comparison of electrical logs from the core hole and from nearby city wells reveals laterally consistent lithostratigraphic patterns over much of the metropolitan area west of the Rio Grande that may be used to delineate structural and related stratigraphic features that have a direct bearing on the availability of ground water.

Decision analysis in the clinical neurosciences

NARCIS (Netherlands)

D.W.J. Dippel (Diederik)

1994-01-01

textabstractDiagnostic and therapeutic choice in neurology can fortunately be made without formal decision support in the majority of cases. in many patients a diagnosis and treatment choice are relatively easy to establish. This study however, concerns the application of a decision support

Multi-criteria decision analysis in environmental sciences: ten years of applications and trends.

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Ivy B; Keisler, Jeffrey; Linkov, Igor

2011-09-01

Decision-making in environmental projects requires consideration of trade-offs between socio-political, environmental, and economic impacts and is often complicated by various stakeholder views. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) emerged as a formal methodology to face available technical information and stakeholder values to support decisions in many fields and can be especially valuable in environmental decision making. This study reviews environmental applications of MCDA. Over 300 papers published between 2000 and 2009 reporting MCDA applications in the environmental field were identified through a series of queries in the Web of Science database. The papers were classified by their environmental application area, decision or intervention type. In addition, the papers were also classified by the MCDA methods used in the analysis (analytic hierarchy process, multi-attribute utility theory, and outranking). The results suggest that there is a significant growth in environmental applications of MCDA over the last decade across all environmental application areas. Multiple MCDA tools have been successfully used for environmental applications. Even though the use of the specific methods and tools varies in different application areas and geographic regions, our review of a few papers where several methods were used in parallel with the same problem indicates that recommended course of action does not vary significantly with the method applied. Published by Elsevier B.V.

European antitrust policy 1957-2004: An analysis of Commission decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Carree, M.; Günster, A.; Schinkel, M.P.

2008-01-01

This paper provides a survey of European antitrust law enforcement since its foundation in the Treaty of Rome of 1957. We present a complete overview and statistical analysis of all 538 formal Commission decisions adopted up to 2004 under Articles 81, 82 and 86 of the European Community Treaty. We

Duopoly Market Analysis within One-Shot Decision Framework with Asymmetric Possibilistic Information

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peijun Guo

2010-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a newly emerging duopoly market with a short life cycle is analyzed. The partially known information of market is characterized by the possibility distribution of the parameter in the demand function. Since the life cycle of the new product is short, how many products should be produced by two rival firms is a typical one-shot decision problem. Within the one-shot decision framework, the possibilistic Cournot equilibrium is obtained for the optimal production level of each firm in a duopoly market with asymmetrical possibilistic information. The analysis results show that the proposed approaches are reasonable for one-shot decision problems, which are extensively encountered in business and economics.

Strategic Decision-Making: Research Mapping from Exploratory Factor Analysis and Multidimensional Scaling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivano Ribeiro

2017-04-01

Full Text Available To understand the connection between authors, concepts and theories that address strategic decision-making, in this article the citations and co-citations of works published up to 2014 were analyzed. The sample consists of 489 articles published in international periodicals included in the Web of Science-ISI Web of Knowledge database. The search was conducted using key words that enabled the identification of the highest possible number of articles on the subject in question. Through Multidimensional Scaling (MDS and Exploratory Factor Analysis (EFA, the conceptual and theoretical relationships involved in these studies were identified. The results show that from 1980 to 2014 three different factors are highlighted: the first has to do with studies on conflict; the second factor is the Top Management Team (TMT and decision-making; and the third is related to processes. More recently (2013-2014, studies on strategic decision-making are converging towards analysis of conflict and process, composition and control, with Upper Echelon Theory being maintained as the central theory in these studies. This finding is the main contribution of this article.

Risk-based emergency decision support

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Koerte, Jens

2003-01-01

In the present paper we discuss how to assist critical decisions taken under complex, contingent circumstances, with a high degree of uncertainty and short time frames. In such sharp-end decision regimes, standard rule-based decision support systems do not capture the complexity of the situation. At the same time, traditional risk analysis is of little use due to variability in the specific circumstances. How then, can an organisation provide assistance to, e.g. pilots in dealing with such emergencies? A method called 'contingent risk and decision analysis' is presented, to provide decision support for decisions under variable circumstances and short available time scales. The method consists of nine steps of definition, modelling, analysis and criteria definition to be performed 'off-line' by analysts, and procedure generation to transform the analysis result into an operational decision aid. Examples of pilots' decisions in response to sudden vibration in offshore helicopter transport method are used to illustrate the approach

Phase I Hydrologic Data for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nathan Bryant

2008-05-01

This document presents a summary and framework of the available hydrologic data and other information directly relevant to the development of the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain (RMSM) Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 99 groundwater flow models. Where appropriate, data and information documented elsewhere are briefly summarized with reference to the complete documentation.

Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, N.

2006-12-01

The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

Constitución y actividades de la Mesa Provincial de Educación Ambiental en la provincia de Mendoza, Argentina.

OpenAIRE

Gabriela Diaz Isenrath; T Bilbao; Cristian Barbosa; Susana Lagos Silnik; Nora Marlia; Silvia Musso; Oscar Ongay Ugarteche; Mirta Zarate; Elba Alicia Pescetti de Cristaldo; Mauricio Bucheri; Flora Bertolotti

2015-01-01

La Educación Ambiental como actividad interdisciplinaria e interinstitucional, requiere de la planificación estratégica participativa, que permita la concreción de esfuerzos que suelen realizarse de manera aislada. Se expone el proceso llevado a cabo para la constitución de la Mesa de Educación Ambiental en la provincia de Mendoza, Argentina. A partir de la discusión sobre la problemática local del Cambio Climático y los requerimientos de  medidas de adaptación, se propone el espacio en el añ...

Reseña de actividad: Mesa de debate “Políticas de Memoria, Verdad y Justicia: balances y perspectivas”

OpenAIRE

Paganini, Mariana; Zubillaga, Paula

2016-01-01

El pasado 1° de julio se llevó adelante la mesa de debate “Políticas de Memoria, Verdad y Justicia: balances y perspectivas”, en la sede del Rectorado de la Universidad Nacional de Tres de Febrero (UNTREF). El encuentro estuvo moderado por el Licenciado en Ciencias Políticas Matías Cerezo y contó con la participación del Doctor Daniel Rafecas, titular del Juzgado Criminal y Correccional Federal N° 3 de la Ciudad Autónoma de Buenos Aires, la Doctora en Sociología Elizabeth Jelin y el Doctor en...

Completion Report for Well ER-20-12: Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Wurtz, Jeff [Navarro-Intera, LLC (N-I), Las Vegas, NV (United States)

2016-08-01

Well ER-20-12 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada National Security Administration Nevada Field Office in support of the Underground Test Area Activity. The well was drilled from October 2015 to January 2016 as an addition to the Central and Western Pahute Mesa corrective action units 101 and 102 the Phase II drilling program. Well ER-20-12 was identified based on recommendations of the Pahute Mesa Guidance Team as a result of anomalous tritium detections in groundwater samples collected from Well PM-3 in 2011 and 2013. The primary purpose of the well was to provide information on the hydrogeology in the area downgradient of select underground tests on Western Pahute Mesa and define hydraulic properties in the saturated Tertiary volcanic rocks. The main 46.99-centimeter (cm) (18.5-inch [in.]) borehole was drilled to a depth of 765.14 meters (m) (2,510.3 ft) and the hole opened to 66.04 cm (26 in.); followed by the 50.80-cm (20-in.) surface casing, which was installed and sealed with cement; and a piezometer (p4) was set in the Timber Mountain welded-tuff aquifer (TMWTA) between the casing and the open borehole. The borehole was continued with a 46.99-cm (18.5-in.) drill bit to a depth of 1,326.53 m (4,352.16 ft), and an intermediate 24.44-cm (9.625-in.) casing was installed and sealed to 1,188.72 m (3,900.00 ft) A piezometer (p3) was installed across the Calico Hills zeolitic composite unit (CHZCM) (lava-flow aquifer [LFA]) in the annulus of the open borehole. Two additional piezometers were installed and completed between the intermediate casing and the borehole wall, one (p2) in the CHZCM and one (p1) in the Belted Range aquifer (BRA). The piezometers are set to monitor groundwater properties in the completed intervals. The borehole was continued with a 21.59-cm (8.5-in.) drill bit to a total depth of 1,384.80 m (4,543.33 ft), and the main completion 13.97-cm (5.5-in.) casing was installed in the open borehole across the Pre-Belted Range

Completion Report for Well ER-20-12: Corrective Action Units 101 and 102: Central and Western Pahute Mesa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wurtz, Jeff

2016-01-01

Well ER-20-12 was drilled for the U.S. Department of Energy, Nevada National Security Administration Nevada Field Office in support of the Underground Test Area Activity. The well was drilled from October 2015 to January 2016 as an addition to the Central and Western Pahute Mesa corrective action units 101 and 102 the Phase II drilling program. Well ER-20-12 was identified based on recommendations of the Pahute Mesa Guidance Team as a result of anomalous tritium detections in groundwater samples collected from Well PM-3 in 2011 and 2013. The primary purpose of the well was to provide information on the hydrogeology in the area downgradient of select underground tests on Western Pahute Mesa and define hydraulic properties in the saturated Tertiary volcanic rocks. The main 46.99-centimeter (cm) (18.5-inch) borehole was drilled to a depth of 765.14 meters (m) (2,510.3 ft) and the hole opened to 66.04 cm (26 in.); followed by the 50.80-cm (20-in.) surface casing, which was installed and sealed with cement; and a piezometer (p4) was set in the Timber Mountain welded-tuff aquifer (TMWTA) between the casing and the open borehole. The borehole was continued with a 46.99-cm (18.5-in.) drill bit to a depth of 1,326.53 m (4,352.16 ft), and an intermediate 24.44-cm (9.625-in.) casing was installed and sealed to 1,188.72 m (3,900.00 ft) A piezometer (p3) was installed across the Calico Hills zeolitic composite unit (CHZCM) (lava-flow aquifer [LFA]) in the annulus of the open borehole. Two additional piezometers were installed and completed between the intermediate casing and the borehole wall, one (p2) in the CHZCM and one (p1) in the Belted Range aquifer (BRA). The piezometers are set to monitor groundwater properties in the completed intervals. The borehole was continued with a 21.59-cm (8.5-in.) drill bit to a total depth of 1,384.80 m (4,543.33 ft), and the main completion 13.97-cm (5.5-in.) casing was installed in the open borehole across the Pre-Belted Range composite

Metamorphic distributed Bragg reflectors for the 1440–1600 nm spectral range: Epitaxy, formation, and regrowth of mesa structures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Egorov, A. Yu.; Karachinsky, L. Ya.; Novikov, I. I.; Babichev, A. V.; Berezovskaya, T. N.; Nevedomskiy, V. N.

2015-01-01

It is shown that metamorphic In 0.3 Ga 0.7 As/In 0.3 Al 0.7 As distributed Bragg reflectors (DBRs) with a reflection band at 1440–1600 nm and a reflectance of no less than 0.999 can be fabricated by molecular beam epitaxy (MBE) on a GaAs substrate. It is demonstrated that mesa structures formed from metamorphic DBRs on a GaAs substrate can be regrown by MBE and microcavities can be locally formed in two separate epitaxial processes. The results obtained can find wide application in the fabrication of vertical-cavity surface-emitting lasers (VCSELs) with a buried tunnel junction

[Decision making in cariology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verdonschot, E.H.A.M.; Liem, S.L.; Palenstein Helderman, W.H. van

2003-01-01

By conducting an oral examination, during radiographic examination and in treatment planning procedures dentists make numerous decisions. A dentist will be required to make his decisions explicit. Decision trees and decision analyses may play an important role. In a decision analysis, the

Composite decision support by combining cost-benefit and multi-criteria decision

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Barfod, Michael Bruhn; Salling, Kim Bang; Leleur, Steen

2011-01-01

This paper concerns composite decision support based on combining cost-benefit analysis (CBA) with multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) for the assessment of economic as well as strategic impacts within transport projects. Specifically a composite model for assessment (COSIMA) is presented...

On the Nirex MADA [Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis]. Proof of evidence

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stirling, A.

1996-01-01

Proof of Evidence is given by an expert witness on behalf of Greenpeace Ltd as part of their submission to a Planning Inquiry in 1995 hearing the application of UK Nirex Ltd for permission to construct an underground Rock Characterisation Facility (RCF) at a site near Sellafield. The RCF is part of an investigation by Nirex into a suitable site for the disposal of radioactive waste. The evidence concerns the use by Nirex of a technique known as Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis (MADA) in support of their decision to concentrate their studies on the Sellafield site. Potentially, MADA offers a highly effective methodology for making difficult political decisions involving a mixture of technical, social and economic considerations. Its proper use, however, relies on: drawing an explicit distinction between relatively technical ''performance scores'' and wholly subjective ''importance weightings''; a clearly expressed and agreed scope for the analysis; the inclusion of a wide range of perspectives; systematic and comprehensive sensitivity testing of the implications of varying data, assumptions and value judgements; optimising the choice of option under each perspective; presenting explicit data, assumptions, transparent methodologies and accessible procedures for critical evaluation and public peer review. It is concluded that Nirex's MADA seems to be seriously deficient in relation to many of these principles. (9 references). (UK)

How to make the best decision. Philosophical aspects of clinical decision theory.

Science.gov (United States)

Wulff, H R

1981-01-01

An attempt is made to discuss some of the philosophical implications of the use of decision-analytic techniques. The probabilities of a decision analysis are subjective measures of belief, and it is concluded that clinicians base their subjective beliefs on both recorded observations and theoretical knowledge. The clinical decision maker also evaluates the consequences of his actions, and therefore clinical decision theory transcends medical science. A number of different schools of normative ethics are mentioned to illustrate the complexity of everyday decision making. The philosophical terminology is useful for the analysis of clinical problems, and it is argued that clinical decision making has both a teleological and a deontological component. The results of decision-analytic studies depend on such factors as the wealth of the country, the organization of the health service, and cultural norms.

Field tests of 2- and 40-tube condensers at the East Mesa Geothermal Test Site

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Murphy, R.W.; Domingo, N.

1982-05-01

Two water-cooled isobutane condensers, one with 2 tubes and one with 40 tubes, were subjected to field tests at the East Mesa Geothermal Test Site to assess relative heat transfer performance in both surface evaporator and direct-contact evaporator modes. The five groups of tests established that field performance was below earlier laboratory-determined levels and that direct-contact evaporator mode performance was poorer than that for the surface evaporator mode. In all test situations, fluted condenser tubes performed better than smooth condenser tubes. Cooling water quality had no significant effect on performance, but brine preflash in the direct-contact mode did promote some relative performance improvement. Important implications of these results for binary geothermal power plants are that (1) working-fluid-side impurities can significantly degrade heat transfer performance of the power plant condensers and (2) provisions for minimizing such impurities may be required.

Decision-making in rectal and colorectal cancer: systematic review and qualitative analysis of surgeons' preferences.

Science.gov (United States)

Broc, Guillaume; Gana, Kamel; Denost, Quentin; Quintard, Bruno

2017-04-01

Surgeons are experiencing difficulties implementing recommendations not only owing to incomplete, confusing or conflicting information but also to the increasing involvement of patients in decisions relating to their health. This study sought to establish which common factors including heuristic factors guide surgeons' decision-making in colon and rectal cancers. We conducted a systematic literature review of surgeons' decision-making factors related to colon and rectal cancer treatment. Eleven of 349 identified publications were eligible for data analyses. Using the IRaMuTeQ (Interface of R for the Multidimensional Analyses of Texts and Questionnaire), we carried out a qualitative analysis of the significant factors collected in the studies reviewed. Several validation procedures were applied to control the robustness of the findings. Five categories of factors (i.e. patient, surgeon, treatment, tumor and organizational cues) were found to influence surgeons' decision-making. Specifically, all decision criteria including biomedical (e.g. tumor information) and heuristic (e.g. surgeons' dispositional factors) criteria converged towards the factor 'age of patient' in the similarity analysis. In the light of the results, we propose an explanatory model showing the impact of heuristic criteria on medical issues (i.e. diagnosis, prognosis, treatment features, etc.) and thus on decision-making. Finally, the psychosocial complexity involved in decision-making is discussed and a medico-psycho-social grid for use in multidisciplinary meetings is proposed.

Multiple Criteria Decision Making by Generalized Data Envelopment Analysis Introducing Aspiration Level Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, Yeboon; Arakawa, Masao; Hiroshi, Ishikawa; Nakayama, Hirotaka

2002-01-01

It has been proved in problems with 2-objective functions that genetic algorithms (GAs) are well utilized for generating Pareto optimal solutions, and then decision making can be easily performed on the basis of visualized Pareto optimal solutions. However, GAs are difficult to visualize Pareto optimal solutions in cases in which the number of objective function is more than 4. Hence, it is trouble some to grasp the trade-off among many objective functions, and decision makers hesitate to choose a final solution from a number of Pareto optimal solutions. In order to solve these problems, we suggest an aspiration level approach to the method using the generalized data envelopment analysis and GAs. We show that the proposed method supports decision makers to choose their desirable solution from many Pareto optimal solutions. Furthermore, it will be seen that engineering design can be effectively done by the proposed method, which makes generation of several Pareto optimal solutions close to the aspiration level and trade-off analysis easily

Using decision analysis to assess comparative clinical efficacy of surgical treatment of unstable ankle fractures.

Science.gov (United States)

Michelson, James D

2013-11-01

The development of a robust treatment algorithm for ankle fractures based on well-established stability criteria has been shown to be prognostic with respect to treatment and outcomes. In parallel with the development of improved understanding of the biomechanical rationale of ankle fracture treatment has been an increased emphasis on assessing the effectiveness of medical and surgical interventions. The purpose of this study was to investigate the use of using decision analysis in the assessment of the cost effectiveness of operative treatment of ankle fractures based on the existing clinical data in the literature. Using the data obtained from a previous structured review of the ankle fracture literature, decision analysis trees were constructed using standard software. The decision nodes for the trees were based on ankle fracture stability criteria previously published. The outcomes were assessed by calculated Quality-Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) assigned to achieving normal ankle function, developing posttraumatic arthritis, or sustaining a postoperative infection. Sensitivity analysis was undertaken by varying the patient's age, incidence of arthritis, and incidence or infection. Decision analysis trees captured the essential aspects of clinical decision making in ankle fracture treatment in a clinically useful manner. In general, stable fractures yielded better outcomes with nonoperative treatment, whereas unstable fractures had better outcomes with surgery. These were consistent results over a wide range of postoperative infection rates. Varying the age of the patient did not qualitatively change the results. Between the ages of 30 and 80 years, surgery yielded higher expected QALYs than nonoperative care for unstable fractures, and generated lower QALYs than nonoperative care for stable fractures. Using local cost estimates for operative and nonoperative treatment, the incremental cost of surgery for unstable fractures was less than $40,000 per QALY (the

Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nicholas Generous

Full Text Available The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

Selecting essential information for biosurveillance--a multi-criteria decision analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Generous, Nicholas; Margevicius, Kristen J; Taylor-McCabe, Kirsten J; Brown, Mac; Daniel, W Brent; Castro, Lauren; Hengartner, Andrea; Deshpande, Alina

2014-01-01

The National Strategy for Biosurveillance defines biosurveillance as "the process of gathering, integrating, interpreting, and communicating essential information related to all-hazards threats or disease activity affecting human, animal, or plant health to achieve early detection and warning, contribute to overall situational awareness of the health aspects of an incident, and to enable better decision-making at all levels." However, the strategy does not specify how "essential information" is to be identified and integrated into the current biosurveillance enterprise, or what the metrics qualify information as being "essential". The question of data stream identification and selection requires a structured methodology that can systematically evaluate the tradeoffs between the many criteria that need to be taken in account. Multi-Attribute Utility Theory, a type of multi-criteria decision analysis, can provide a well-defined, structured approach that can offer solutions to this problem. While the use of Multi-Attribute Utility Theoryas a practical method to apply formal scientific decision theoretical approaches to complex, multi-criteria problems has been demonstrated in a variety of fields, this method has never been applied to decision support in biosurveillance.We have developed a formalized decision support analytic framework that can facilitate identification of "essential information" for use in biosurveillance systems or processes and we offer this framework to the global BSV community as a tool for optimizing the BSV enterprise. To demonstrate utility, we applied the framework to the problem of evaluating data streams for use in an integrated global infectious disease surveillance system.

Decision analysis for the exploration of gas reserves: merging todim and thor

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos Francisco Simões Gomes

2010-12-01

Full Text Available This article approaches the problem of selecting the non-dominated alternative for the destination of the natural gas reserves in the Mexilhão field in the Santos Basin, Brazil. Major aims of the case study reported here were to create a mechanism for assisting in the process of analyzing and selecting the best options for the destination of natural gas, and to enable the decision agent to choose the investment options best aligned to the expectations and objectives observed in the company strategies. The decision analysis employed in the study made use of the TODIM method and the THOR multicriteria decision support system. The application of both demonstrated that a decision analytic framework can be extremely useful when recommending options for upstream projects, owing to the fact that it can clearly identify the most important alternatives in the face of the scenarios tested and in relation to the criteria expressed.

Decision Analysis and Its Application to the Frequency of Containment Integrated Leakage Rate Tests

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Apostolakis, George E.; Koser, John P.; Sato, Gaku

2004-01-01

For nuclear utilities to become competitive in a deregulated electricity market, costs must be reduced, safety must be maintained, and interested stakeholders must remain content with the decisions being made. One way to reduce costs is to reduce the frequency of preventive maintenance and testing. However, these changes must be weighed against their impact on safety and stakeholder relations. We present a methodology that allows the evaluation of decision options using a number of objectives that include safety, economics, and stakeholder relations. First, the candidate decision options are screened to make sure that they satisfy the relevant regulatory requirements. The remaining options are evaluated using multiattribute utility theory. The results of the formal analysis include a ranking of the options according to their desirability as well as the major reasons that explain this ranking. These results are submitted to a deliberative process in which the decision makers scrutinize the results to ensure that they are meaningful. During the deliberation, new decision options may be formulated based on the insights that the formal analysis provides, as happened in the case study of this paper. This case study deals with the reduction in frequency of the containment integrated leak rate test of a boiling water reactor

Exploring predictors of scientific performance with decision tree analysis: The case of research excellence in early career mathematics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lindahl, J.

2016-07-01

The purpose of this study was (1) to introduce the exploratory method of decision tree analysis as a complementary alternative to current confirmatory methods used in scientometric prediction studies of research performance; and (2) as an illustrative case, to explore predictors of future research excellence at the individual level among 493 early career mathematicians in the sub-field of number theory between 1999 and 2010. A conceptual introduction to decision tree analysis is provided including an overview of the main steps of the tree-building algorithm and the statistical method of cross-validation used to evaluate the performance of decision tree models. A decision tree analysis of 493 mathematicians was conducted to find useful predictors and important relationships between variables in the context of predicting research excellence. The results suggest that the number of prestige journal publications and a topically diverse output are important predictors of future research excellence. Researchers with no prestige journal publications are very unlikely to produce excellent research. Limitations of decision three analysis are discussed. (Author)

Hanford Site cleanup and transition: Risk data needs for decision making (Hanford risk data gap analysis decision guide)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gajewski, S.; Glantz, C.; Harper, B.; Bilyard, G.; Miller, P.

1995-10-01

Given the broad array of environmental problems, technical alternatives, and outcomes desired by different stakeholders at Hanford, DOE will have to make difficult resource allocations over the next few decades. Although some of these allocations will be driven purely by legal requirements, almost all of the major objectives of the cleanup and economic transition missions involve choices among alternative pathways. This study examined the following questions: what risk information is needed to make good decisions at Hanford; how do those data needs compare to the set(s) of risk data that will be generated by regulatory compliance activities and various non-compliance studies that are also concerned with risk? This analysis examined the Hanford Site missions, the Hanford Strategic Plan, known stakeholder values, and the most important decisions that have to be made at Hanford to determine a minimum domain of risk information required to make good decisions that will withstand legal, political, and technical scrutiny. The primary risk categories include (1) public health, (2) occupational health and safety, (3) ecological integrity, (4) cultural-religious welfare, and (5) socio-economic welfare

INTEGRATION OF MULTICRITERIA ANALYSIS INTO DECISION SUPPORT CONCEPT FOR URBAN ROAD INFRASTRUCTURE MANAGEMENT

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Niksa Jajac

2010-12-01

Full Text Available Urban road infrastructure management deals with complex decision making process. There are several reasons for a complexity such as: multi-disciplinarity, lots of participants, huge quantity of information, limited budget, conflict goals and criteria. These facts indicate that decision making processes in urban road infrastructure management belong to ill-defined problems. In order to cope with such complexity and to help managers during decision making processes this research proposes an application of multicriteria methods. Therefore, a generic concept of decision support for urban road infrastructure management based on multicriteria analysis is proposed. Three multicriteria methods: AHP, SAW and PROMETHHE, in a combination with 0-1 programming are used. The main advantage of an application of multicriteria analysis is that all stakeholders could be objectively included into decision process. Therefore, setting up of criteria weights involves opinions from all stakeholders’ groups (stakeholders are divided into three characteristic groups. Evaluation of criteria importance (weights is based on three sets of opinions processed by Analytic Hierarchic Processing (AHP method. Three sets of criteria are then processed by Simple Additive Weighting (SAW method resulting in a final set of criteria weights. By using SAW method, relative importance of opinions of all three stakeholders’ groups is introduced. Collected data are then processed by PROMETHEE multicriteria methods. Proposed decision support concept is validated on the problem of improvement of one part of an urban road infrastructure system for a large urban area of town of Split. The concept is efficiently applied on several problems regarding parking garages: location selection, sub-project ranking, definition of an investment strategy.

The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Ahearne, J.F. [The Sigma XI Center, Research Triangle Park, NC (United States)

1999-12-01

safer systems. However, the decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies.

The need to go beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahearne, J.F.

1999-01-01

decision-makers and their advisors have lagged in going beyond analysis in making risk-based decisions. Whether it is a case like Brent Spar here in Europe or Yucca Mountain in the United States, significant lessons can be learned on how to make decisions in democratic societies

Health versus money. Value judgments in the perspective of decision analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Thompson, M S

1983-01-01

An important, but largely uninvestigated, value trade-off balances marginal nonhealth consumption against marginal medical care. Benefit-cost analysts have traditionally, if not fully satisfactorily, dealt with this issue by valuing health gains by their effects on productivity. Cost-effectiveness analysts compare monetary and health effects and leave their relative valuations to decision makers. A decision-analytic model using the satisfaction or utility gained from nonhealth consumption and the level of health enables one to calculate willingness to pay--a theoretically superior way of assigning monetary values to effects for benefit-cost analysis-and to determine minimally acceptable cost-effectiveness ratios. Examples show how a decision-analytic model of utility can differentiate medical actions so essential that failure to take them would be considered negligent from actions so expensive as to be unjustifiable, and can help to determine optimal legal arrangements for compensation for medical malpractice.

Phase I Contaminant Transport Parameters for the Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model of Corrective Action Unit 99: Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain, Nevada Test Site, Nye County, Nevada, Revision 1

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Nathan Bryant

2008-05-01

This document presents a summary and framework of available transport data and other information directly relevant to the development of the Rainier Mesa/Shoshone Mountain (RMSM) Corrective Action Unit (CAU) 99 groundwater transport model. Where appropriate, data and information documented elsewhere are briefly summarized with reference to the complete documentation.

Assessment of major nuclear technologies with decision and risk analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Winterfeldt, D. von

1995-01-01

Selecting technologies for major nuclear programs involves several complexities, including multiple stakeholders, multiple conflicting objectives, uncertainties, and risk. In addition, the programmatic risks related to the schedule, cost, and performance of these technologies often become major issues in the selection process. This paper describes a decision analysis approach for addressing these complexities in a logical manner

Obtenção de medidas de imagens adquiridas em estereomiscroscópio e escaner de mesa = Measures obtained from images acquired by a stereomicroscope and a desktop scanner

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Larentis, Naiara Leites

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Objetivo: Esse estudo teve por objetivo comparar medidas obtidas de imagens de secções dentárias adquiridas em estereomiscrópio e escâner de mesa, assim como determinar se existem diferenças entre os dois métodos. Métodos: Cinquenta dentes humanos extraídos foram seccionados no sentido mésio-distal. Cada secção foi fotografada em estereomicroscópio e digitalizada em escâner de mesa com resolução de 230 dpi. O programa Photoshop foi utilizado para obter medidas verticais e horizontais das imagens de cada secção dentárias, adquiridas por ambos os métodos. Foram repetidas as medidas em 20% das amostras, selecionadas randomicamente. Resultados: As medidas iniciais e as repetidas apresentaram correlação positiva e o teste t para amostras pareadas não revelou diferença significativa (a=5% entre elas. A média das medidas e os devios-padrão foram: horizontal, estereomicroscópio 8,89 mm±4,30 mm e escâner 8,89 mm±4,52 mm; vertical, estereomicroscópio 4,42 mm±2,19 mm e escâner 4,43 mm±2,19 mm. Os resultados do teste t para amostras pareadas (a=5% não mostrou nenhuma diferença significativa entre os dois métodos para as medidas horizontais (p=0,685 e verticais (p=0,299. Conclusão: O escâner de mesa pode ser usado substituindo o estereomicroscópio na aquisição de imagens de secções dentárias para a obtenção de medidas verticais e horizontais

Adecuaciones al programa de Tenis de Mesa Adaptado a niños con síndrome de Down de la escuela “Carlos Rodríguez Cariaga” de Camaguey

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Carlos Alberto Govea Macías

2007-03-01

Full Text Available Los síndromes de Down presentan deficiencias en la adquisición de hábitos y habilidades motrices así como limitaciones desde el punto de vista psicomotriz, por lo que se asume la siguiente interrogante, ¿Cómo contribuir al desarrollo psicomotriz de los niños con síndrome de Down de la escuela “Carlos Rodríguez Cariaga”? y se propone como objetivo aplicar el Tenis de Mesa adaptado para mejorar la psicomotricidad de dichos alumnos en la escuela “Carlos Rodríguez Cariaga”. De una población de 10 niños, se escogió una muestra intencional de cuatro para un 40%, dos hembras y dos varones, sus edades oscilan entre 8-10 años y uno con cardiopatía congénita, los mismos fueron los de mejores resultados en el diagnóstico de los indicadores psicomotrices, todos con diagnóstico de RMMA, a los que se les aplicaron adecuaciones al programa de Tenis de Mesa Adaptado durante 10 semanas, tres días a la semana de 3:00 - 5:00 p.m. Para darle validez científica a la investigación se utilizaron métodos científicos, teóricos, empíricos y estadísticos los que permitieron concluir que en el diagnóstico todas las habilidades estaban como malas al igual que los indicadores psicomotrices, la coordinación dinámica general, el equilibrio dinámico y la sincinesis. Con la aplicación del programa de Tenis de Mesa adaptado se logró la adquisición y desarrollo de las habilidades y mejorar los indicadores psicomotrices estudiados, por lo que se recomienda aplicar las adecuaciones aquí propuestas para enriquecer el programa existente.

Analysis of Product Buying Decision on Lazada E-commerce based on Previous Buyers’ Comments

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Neil Aldrin

2017-06-01

Full Text Available The aims of the present research are: 1 to know that product buying decision possibly occurs, 2 to know how product buying decision occurs on Lazada e-commerce’s customers, 3 how previous buyers’ comments can increase product buying decision on Lazada e-commerce. This research utilizes qualitative research method. Qualitative research is a research that investigates other researches and makes assumption or discussion result so that other analysis results can be made in order to widen idea and opinion. Research result shows that product which has many ratings and reviews will trigger other buyers to purchase or get that product. The conclusion is that product buying decision may occur because there are some processes before making decision which are: looking for recognition and searching for problems, knowing the needs, collecting information, evaluating alternative, evaluating after buying. In those stages, buying decision on Lazada e-commerce is supported by price, promotion, service, and brand.

Adding value in oil and gas by applying decision analysis methodologies: case history

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Marot, Nicolas [Petro Andina Resources Inc., Alberta (Canada); Francese, Gaston [Tandem Decision Solutions, Buenos Aires (Argentina)

2008-07-01

Petro Andina Resources Ltd. together with Tandem Decision Solutions developed a strategic long range plan applying decision analysis methodology. The objective was to build a robust and fully integrated strategic plan that accomplishes company growth goals to set the strategic directions for the long range. The stochastic methodology and the Integrated Decision Management (IDM{sup TM}) staged approach allowed the company to visualize the associated value and risk of the different strategies while achieving organizational alignment, clarity of action and confidence in the path forward. A decision team involving jointly PAR representatives and Tandem consultants was established to carry out this four month project. Discovery and framing sessions allow the team to disrupt the status quo, discuss near and far reaching ideas and gather the building blocks from which creative strategic alternatives were developed. A comprehensive stochastic valuation model was developed to assess the potential value of each strategy applying simulation tools, sensitivity analysis tools and contingency planning techniques. Final insights and results have been used to populate the final strategic plan presented to the company board providing confidence to the team, assuring that the work embodies the best available ideas, data and expertise, and that the proposed strategy was ready to be elaborated into an optimized course of action. (author)

A multimethod analysis of shared decision-making in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings including family caregivers.

Science.gov (United States)

Washington, Karla T; Oliver, Debra Parker; Gage, L Ashley; Albright, David L; Demiris, George

2016-03-01

Much of the existing research on shared decision-making in hospice and palliative care focuses on the provider-patient dyad; little is known about shared decision-making that is inclusive of family members of patients with advanced disease. We sought to describe shared decision-making as it occurred in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings that included family caregivers as participants using video-conferencing technology. We conducted a multimethod study in which we used content and thematic analysis techniques to analyze video-recordings of hospice interdisciplinary team meetings (n = 100), individual interviews of family caregivers (n = 73) and hospice staff members (n = 78), and research field notes. Participants in the original studies from which data for this analysis were drawn were hospice family caregivers and staff members employed by one of five different community-based hospice agencies located in the Midwestern United States. Shared decision-making occurred infrequently in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings that included family caregivers. Barriers to shared decision-making included time constraints, communication skill deficits, unaddressed emotional needs, staff absences, and unclear role expectations. The hospice philosophy of care, current trends in healthcare delivery, the interdisciplinary nature of hospice teams, and the designation of a team leader/facilitator supported shared decision-making. The involvement of family caregivers in hospice interdisciplinary team meetings using video-conferencing technology creates a useful platform for shared decision-making; however, steps must be taken to transform family caregivers from meeting attendees to shared decision-makers. © The Author(s) 2015.

Propagação de Vitis spp. pela enxertia de mesa utilizando diferentes porta-enxertos e auxinas

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Murillo de Albuquerque Regina

2012-09-01

Full Text Available A enxertia de mesa constitui-se, hoje, uma técnica alternativa de multiplicação da videira. No Brasil, esta técnica começou a ser empregada em escala comercial a partir dos anos 2000, mas diversas etapas da produção foram adaptadas de conhecimentos gerados no Hemisfério Norte, sem experimentação local. O emprego de auxinas é fundamental em algumas etapas do processo, como na formação do calo e no enraizamento, podendo afetar substancialmente as taxas de pegamento das mudas. Por outro lado, dentro da gama de porta-enxertos de uso corrente na viticultura nacional, a aptidão ao pegamento das mudas por esta técnica é variável e carente de experimentação regional. Neste sentido, este estudo testou diferentes parafinas de enxertia, enriquecidas ou não com auxinas, e diferentes porta-enxertos para um grupo variável de cultivares de videiras. Os experimentos foram realizados no Núcleo Tecnológico EPAMIG Uva e Vinho, em Caldas-MG, empregando a técnica de enxertia de mesa com estratificação em água e repicagem dos enxertos em canteiros a céu aberto. A parafina enriquecida com auxina mostrou-se mais indicada para a enxertia, ao passo que o emprego do AIB para enraizamento dos porta-enxertos não influenciou positivamente na produção das mudas. O pegamento médio de enxertia para os diferentes porta-enxertos foi variável em função dos anos de estudo, mas situou-se dentro dos valores normais próximos aos 55 % para esta técnica, à exceção da cultivar 420 A, que não se mostrou adaptada à esta técnica de propagação para a região em estudo.

Development of Phenomenological Models of Underground Nuclear Tests on Pahute Mesa, Nevada Test Site - BENHAM and TYBO

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Pawloski, G.A.

1999-09-21

Although it is well accepted that underground nuclear explosions modify the in situ geologic media around the explosion point, the details of these changes are neither well understood nor well documented. As part of the engineering and containment process before a nuclear test, the physical environment is characterized to some extent to predict how the explosion will interact with the in situ media. However, a more detailed characterization of the physical environment surrounding an expended site is needed to successfully model radionuclide transport in the groundwater away from the detonation point. It is important to understand how the media have been altered and where the radionuclides are deposited. Once understood, this information on modified geologic media can be incorporated into a phenomenological model that is suitable for input to computer simulations of groundwater flow and radionuclide transport. The primary goals of this study are to (1) identify the modification of the media at a pertinent scale, and (2) provide this information to researchers modeling radionuclide transport in groundwater for the US Department of Energy (DOE) Nevada Operations Office Underground Test Area (UGTA) Project. Results from this study are most applicable at near-field scale (a model domain of about 500 m) and intermediate-field scale (a model domain of about 5 km) for which detailed information can be maximized as it is incorporated in the modeling grids. UGTA collected data on radionuclides in groundwater during recent drilling at the ER-20-5 site, which is near BENHAM and TYBO on Pahute Mesa at the Nevada Test Site (NTS). Computer simulations are being performed to better understand radionuclide transport. The objectives of this modeling effort include: evaluating site-specific information from the BENHAM and TYBO tests on Pahute Mesa; augmenting the above data set with generalized containment data; and developing a phenomenological model suitable for input to

An Analytic Hierarchy Process Analysis: Application to Subscriber Retention Decisions in the Nigerian Mobile Telecommunications

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Adebiyi Sulaimon Olanrewaju

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The introduction of mobile number portability (MNP in the Nigerian telecommunications industry has brought a new challenge for mobile operators. This study investigates the use of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP in customer retention decisions in the Nigerian telecommunication industry using a cross-sectional survey design. Primary data were obtained through questionnaires administered to 480 mobile telecommunications subscribers in six tertiary institutions located in Lagos State, Nigeria. These educational institutions were chosen using a multistage sampling technique. Of 438 questionnaires received from subscribers, 408 were valid. Based on this sample data an AHP model was built to assess the determinants of customer retention decisions. Next, eigen values, an eigen vector and maximum lambda (λMax were obtained using the AHP analysis for the matrices. This analysis shows that customers considered call quality as the important in the retention decision. We conclude that AHP is a meaningful tool for determining what motivates retention decisions, that can help network operators formulate effective customer retention strategies.

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support.

Science.gov (United States)

Gibert, Karina; García-Alonso, Carlos; Salvador-Carulla, Luis

2010-09-30

Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA), which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK) to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1) Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA), and 2) Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR). In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1) Data collection and data preparation; 2) acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK) and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB); 3) PKB-guided analysis; 4) support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited); 5) incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6) post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering), applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. This paper presents EbCA and shows the convenience of

Integrating clinicians, knowledge and data: expert-based cooperative analysis in healthcare decision support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

García-Alonso Carlos

2010-09-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Decision support in health systems is a highly difficult task, due to the inherent complexity of the process and structures involved. Method This paper introduces a new hybrid methodology Expert-based Cooperative Analysis (EbCA, which incorporates explicit prior expert knowledge in data analysis methods, and elicits implicit or tacit expert knowledge (IK to improve decision support in healthcare systems. EbCA has been applied to two different case studies, showing its usability and versatility: 1 Bench-marking of small mental health areas based on technical efficiency estimated by EbCA-Data Envelopment Analysis (EbCA-DEA, and 2 Case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency using Clustering Based on Rules (ClBR. In both cases comparisons towards classical procedures using qualitative explicit prior knowledge were made. Bayesian predictive validity measures were used for comparison with expert panels results. Overall agreement was tested by Intraclass Correlation Coefficient in case "1" and kappa in both cases. Results EbCA is a new methodology composed by 6 steps:. 1 Data collection and data preparation; 2 acquisition of "Prior Expert Knowledge" (PEK and design of the "Prior Knowledge Base" (PKB; 3 PKB-guided analysis; 4 support-interpretation tools to evaluate results and detect inconsistencies (here Implicit Knowledg -IK- might be elicited; 5 incorporation of elicited IK in PKB and repeat till a satisfactory solution; 6 post-processing results for decision support. EbCA has been useful for incorporating PEK in two different analysis methods (DEA and Clustering, applied respectively to assess technical efficiency of small mental health areas and for case-mix of schizophrenia based on functional dependency. Differences in results obtained with classical approaches were mainly related to the IK which could be elicited by using EbCA and had major implications for the decision making in both cases. Discussion This

Decision and Inhibitory Trees for Decision Tables with Many-Valued Decisions

KAUST Repository

Azad, Mohammad

2018-06-06

Decision trees are one of the most commonly used tools in decision analysis, knowledge representation, machine learning, etc., for its simplicity and interpretability. We consider an extension of dynamic programming approach to process the whole set of decision trees for the given decision table which was previously only attainable by brute-force algorithms. We study decision tables with many-valued decisions (each row may contain multiple decisions) because they are more reasonable models of data in many cases. To address this problem in a broad sense, we consider not only decision trees but also inhibitory trees where terminal nodes are labeled with “̸= decision”. Inhibitory trees can sometimes describe more knowledge from datasets than decision trees. As for cost functions, we consider depth or average depth to minimize time complexity of trees, and the number of nodes or the number of the terminal, or nonterminal nodes to minimize the space complexity of trees. We investigate the multi-stage optimization of trees relative to some cost functions, and also the possibility to describe the whole set of strictly optimal trees. Furthermore, we study the bi-criteria optimization cost vs. cost and cost vs. uncertainty for decision trees, and cost vs. cost and cost vs. completeness for inhibitory trees. The most interesting application of the developed technique is the creation of multi-pruning and restricted multi-pruning approaches which are useful for knowledge representation and prediction. The experimental results show that decision trees constructed by these approaches can often outperform the decision trees constructed by the CART algorithm. Another application includes the comparison of 12 greedy heuristics for single- and bi-criteria optimization (cost vs. cost) of trees. We also study the three approaches (decision tables with many-valued decisions, decision tables with most common decisions, and decision tables with generalized decisions) to handle

Decision Making Analysis: Critical Factors-Based Methodology

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

the pitfalls associated with current wargaming methods such as assuming a western view of rational values in decision - making regardless of the cultures...Utilization theory slightly expands the rational decision making model as it states that “actors try to maximize their expected utility by weighing the...items to categorize the decision - making behavior of political leaders which tend to demonstrate either a rational or cognitive leaning. Leaders

Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-01

The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector-borne disease management in particular

Spatially explicit multi-criteria decision analysis for managing vector-borne diseases

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hongoh Valerie

2011-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract The complex epidemiology of vector-borne diseases creates significant challenges in the design and delivery of prevention and control strategies, especially in light of rapid social and environmental changes. Spatial models for predicting disease risk based on environmental factors such as climate and landscape have been developed for a number of important vector-borne diseases. The resulting risk maps have proven value for highlighting areas for targeting public health programs. However, these methods generally only offer technical information on the spatial distribution of disease risk itself, which may be incomplete for making decisions in a complex situation. In prioritizing surveillance and intervention strategies, decision-makers often also need to consider spatially explicit information on other important dimensions, such as the regional specificity of public acceptance, population vulnerability, resource availability, intervention effectiveness, and land use. There is a need for a unified strategy for supporting public health decision making that integrates available data for assessing spatially explicit disease risk, with other criteria, to implement effective prevention and control strategies. Multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA is a decision support tool that allows for the consideration of diverse quantitative and qualitative criteria using both data-driven and qualitative indicators for evaluating alternative strategies with transparency and stakeholder participation. Here we propose a MCDA-based approach to the development of geospatial models and spatially explicit decision support tools for the management of vector-borne diseases. We describe the conceptual framework that MCDA offers as well as technical considerations, approaches to implementation and expected outcomes. We conclude that MCDA is a powerful tool that offers tremendous potential for use in public health decision-making in general and vector

Decision analysis to define the optimal management of athletes with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery.

Science.gov (United States)

Mery, Carlos M; Lopez, Keila N; Molossi, Silvana; Sexson-Tejtel, S Kristen; Krishnamurthy, Rajesh; McKenzie, E Dean; Fraser, Charles D; Cantor, Scott B

2016-11-01

The goal of this study was to use decision analysis to evaluate the impact of varying uncertainties on the outcomes of patients with anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery. Two separate decision analysis models were created: one for anomalous left coronary artery (ALCA) and one for anomalous right coronary artery (ARCA). Three strategies were compared: observation, exercise restriction, and surgery. Probabilities and health utilities were estimated on the basis of existing literature. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. Surgery was the optimal management strategy for patients management in anomalous aortic origin of a coronary artery depends on multiple factors, including individual patient characteristics. Decision analysis provides a tool to understand how these characteristics affect the outcomes with each management strategy and thus may aid in the decision making process for a particular patient. Copyright © 2016 The American Association for Thoracic Surgery. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Role of pharmacoeconomic analysis in R&D decision making: when, where, how?

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Paul

2005-01-01

Pharmacoeconomics is vitally important to drug manufacturers in terms of communicating to external decision-makers (payers, prescribers, patients) the value of their products, achieving regulatory and reimbursement approval and contributing to commercial success. Since development of new drugs is long, costly and risky, and decisions must be made how to allocate considerable research and development (R&D) resources, pharmacoeconomics also has an essential role informing internal decision-making (within a company) during drug development. The use of pharmacoeconomics in early development phases is likely to enhance the efficiency of R&D resource use and also provide a solid foundation for communicating product value to external decision-makers further downstream, increasing the likelihood of regulatory (reimbursement) approval and commercial success. This paper puts the case for use of pharmacoeconomic analyses earlier in the development process and outlines five techniques (clinical trial simulation [CTS], option pricing [OP], investment appraisal [IA], threshold analysis [TA] and value of information [VOI] analysis) that can provide useful input into the design of clinical development programmes, portfolio management and optimal pricing strategy. CTS can estimate efficacy and tolerability profiles before clinical data are available. OP can show the value of different clinical programme designs, sequencing of studies and stop decisions. IA can compare expected net present value (NPV) of different product profiles or study designs. TA can be used to understand development drug profile requirements given partial data. VOI can assist risk management by quantifying uncertainty and assessing the economic viability of gathering further information on the development drug. No amount of pharmacoeconomic data can make a bad drug good; what it can do is enhance the drug developers understanding of the characteristics of that drug. Decision-making, in light of this

The Decision Calculus of Terrorist Leaders

OpenAIRE

J. Tyson Chatagnier; Alex Mintz; Yair Samban

2012-01-01

This article contributes to the literature on terrorist group decision-making by introducing a new procedure, Applied Decision Analysis, in an attempt to understand how leaders of terrorist organizations make decisions. We examine twenty-three decisions taken by leaders of three terrorist organizations: Al-Qaeda, Hamas, and Hizballah. We also demonstrate the use of the Applied Decision Analysis procedure to uncover the "Decision DNA" or “decision code” of leaders of such organizat...

Analysis of Pedestrian Gap Acceptance and Crossing Decision in Kuala Lumpur

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mohamad Nor Siti Naquiyah

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Pedestrians are most vulnerable of all road users. This research aims to investigate and model pedestrian road crossing behaviour at crossing facilities. In particular, they have two aspects of pedestrians crossing behaviour are examined, namely the size of traffic gaps acceptance by pedestrians and the decision of pedestrians either to cross the road or not. A fields survey was carried out at six crossing facilities which from a zebra crossing at midblock. In this survey, the data were recorded in real traffic condition using video recorder. Determine the associations between characteristics of pedestrians, crossing facilities and vehicular traffic through on-site observations of pedestrian behaviour. This data will analysis using statistical analysis which is multiple regression and binary logit regression method. It is hope that through this research, the model of pedestrian gap acceptance and pedestrian crossing decision can be reached and what are the indicators that pedestrians look for when accepting gaps to cross the road.

Characterising bias in regulatory risk and decision analysis: An analysis of heuristics applied in health technology appraisal, chemicals regulation, and climate change governance.

Science.gov (United States)

MacGillivray, Brian H

2017-08-01

In many environmental and public health domains, heuristic methods of risk and decision analysis must be relied upon, either because problem structures are ambiguous, reliable data is lacking, or decisions are urgent. This introduces an additional source of uncertainty beyond model and measurement error - uncertainty stemming from relying on inexact inference rules. Here we identify and analyse heuristics used to prioritise risk objects, to discriminate between signal and noise, to weight evidence, to construct models, to extrapolate beyond datasets, and to make policy. Some of these heuristics are based on causal generalisations, yet can misfire when these relationships are presumed rather than tested (e.g. surrogates in clinical trials). Others are conventions designed to confer stability to decision analysis, yet which may introduce serious error when applied ritualistically (e.g. significance testing). Some heuristics can be traced back to formal justifications, but only subject to strong assumptions that are often violated in practical applications. Heuristic decision rules (e.g. feasibility rules) in principle act as surrogates for utility maximisation or distributional concerns, yet in practice may neglect costs and benefits, be based on arbitrary thresholds, and be prone to gaming. We highlight the problem of rule-entrenchment, where analytical choices that are in principle contestable are arbitrarily fixed in practice, masking uncertainty and potentially introducing bias. Strategies for making risk and decision analysis more rigorous include: formalising the assumptions and scope conditions under which heuristics should be applied; testing rather than presuming their underlying empirical or theoretical justifications; using sensitivity analysis, simulations, multiple bias analysis, and deductive systems of inference (e.g. directed acyclic graphs) to characterise rule uncertainty and refine heuristics; adopting "recovery schemes" to correct for known biases

A Decision Making Analysis of Persuasive Argumentation and the Choice Shift Effect

Science.gov (United States)

Vinokur, Amiram; And Others

1975-01-01

A subjective expected utility (SEU) decision-making analysis was performed on the content of arguments generated by subjects privately or during group discussion in response to choice-dilemmas shown to shift toward risk and caution. (Editor)

[Analysis of the characteristics of the older adults with depression using data mining decision tree analysis].

Science.gov (United States)

Park, Myonghwa; Choi, Sora; Shin, A Mi; Koo, Chul Hoi

2013-02-01

The purpose of this study was to develop a prediction model for the characteristics of older adults with depression using the decision tree method. A large dataset from the 2008 Korean Elderly Survey was used and data of 14,970 elderly people were analyzed. Target variable was depression and 53 input variables were general characteristics, family & social relationship, economic status, health status, health behavior, functional status, leisure & social activity, quality of life, and living environment. Data were analyzed by decision tree analysis, a data mining technique using SPSS Window 19.0 and Clementine 12.0 programs. The decision trees were classified into five different rules to define the characteristics of older adults with depression. Classification & Regression Tree (C&RT) showed the best prediction with an accuracy of 80.81% among data mining models. Factors in the rules were life satisfaction, nutritional status, daily activity difficulty due to pain, functional limitation for basic or instrumental daily activities, number of chronic diseases and daily activity difficulty due to disease. The different rules classified by the decision tree model in this study should contribute as baseline data for discovering informative knowledge and developing interventions tailored to these individual characteristics.

DRUG EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING IN CATALONIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) FOR ORPHAN DRUGS.