Choice Probability Generating Functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel L; Bierlaire, Michel
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications....
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2013-01-01
This paper considers discrete choice, with choice probabilities coming from maximization of preferences from a random utility field perturbed by additive location shifters (ARUM). Any ARUM can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) whose gradient gives the choice...... probabilities, and every CPGF is consistent with an ARUM. We relate CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and review and extend methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The choice probabilities of any ARUM may be approximated by a cross-nested logit model. The results for ARUM are extended to...
Choice probability generating functions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2010-01-01
This paper establishes that every random utility discrete choice model (RUM) has a representation that can be characterized by a choice-probability generating function (CPGF) with specific properties, and that every function with these specific properties is consistent with a RUM. The choice...... probabilities from the RUM are obtained from the gradient of the CPGF. Mixtures of RUM are characterized by logarithmic mixtures of their associated CPGF. The paper relates CPGF to multivariate extreme value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing generating functions for applications...
Generating target probability sequences and events
Ella, Vaignana Spoorthy
2013-01-01
Cryptography and simulation of systems require that events of pre-defined probability be generated. This paper presents methods to generate target probability events based on the oblivious transfer protocol and target probabilistic sequences using probability distribution functions.
Generating pseudo-random discrete probability distributions
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Maziero, Jonas, E-mail: jonasmaziero@gmail.com [Universidade Federal de Santa Maria (UFSM), RS (Brazil). Departamento de Fisica
2015-08-15
The generation of pseudo-random discrete probability distributions is of paramount importance for a wide range of stochastic simulations spanning from Monte Carlo methods to the random sampling of quantum states for investigations in quantum information science. In spite of its significance, a thorough exposition of such a procedure is lacking in the literature. In this article, we present relevant details concerning the numerical implementation and applicability of what we call the iid, normalization, and trigonometric methods for generating an unbiased probability vector p=(p{sub 1},⋯ ,p{sub d}). An immediate application of these results regarding the generation of pseudo-random pure quantum states is also described. (author)
Estimating probable flaw distributions in PWR steam generator tubes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Gorman, J.A.; Turner, A.P.L. [Dominion Engineering, Inc., McLean, VA (United States)
1997-02-01
This paper describes methods for estimating the number and size distributions of flaws of various types in PWR steam generator tubes. These estimates are needed when calculating the probable primary to secondary leakage through steam generator tubes under postulated accidents such as severe core accidents and steam line breaks. The paper describes methods for two types of predictions: (1) the numbers of tubes with detectable flaws of various types as a function of time, and (2) the distributions in size of these flaws. Results are provided for hypothetical severely affected, moderately affected and lightly affected units. Discussion is provided regarding uncertainties and assumptions in the data and analyses.
Sharp Bounds by Probability-Generating Functions and Variable Drift
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Doerr, Benjamin; Fouz, Mahmoud; Witt, Carsten
2011-01-01
We introduce to the runtime analysis of evolutionary algorithms two powerful techniques: probability-generating functions and variable drift analysis. They are shown to provide a clean framework for proving sharp upper and lower bounds. As an application, we improve the results by Doerr et al...
Implications of Cognitive Load for Hypothesis Generation and Probability Judgment.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
MichaelDougherty
2011-06-01
Full Text Available We tested the predictions of HyGene (Thomas, Dougherty, Sprenger, & Harbison, 2008 that both divided attention at encoding and judgment should affect degree to which participants’ probability judgments violate the principle of additivity. In two experiments, we showed that divided attention during judgment leads to an increase in subadditivity, suggesting that the comparison process for probability judgments is capacity limited. Contrary to the predictions of HyGene, a third experiment revealed that divided attention during encoding leads to an increase in later probability judgment made under full attention. The effect of divided attention at encoding on judgment was completely mediated by the number of hypotheses participants generated, indicating that limitations in both encoding and recall can cascade into biases in judgments.
EP 1000 steam generator tube rupture analyses
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
European electrical utility organizations together with Westinghouse and Ansaldo are participating in a program to utilize the Westinghouse passive nuclear plant technology to develop a plant which meets the European Utility Requirements (EUR) and is expected to be licensable in Europe. The program was initiated in 1994 and the plant is designated EP1000. The EP1000 design is notable for simplicity that comes from a reliance on passive safety systems to enhance plant safety. The use of passive safety systems has provided significant and measurable improvements in plant simplification, safety, reliability, investment protection and plant costs. These systems use only natural forces such as gravity, natural circulation, and compressed gas to provide the driving forces for the systems to adequately cool the reactor core following an initiating event. The EP1000 builds up on the Westinghouse passive nuclear plant technology to enhance plant safety and meet European Utility Requirements and specific European National Safety Criteria. This paper summarizes the main results of the Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) analysis activity, performed in Phase 2B of the European Passive Plant Program. The purpose of the study is to provide evidence that the passive safety system performance provides a significant improvement in terms of safety, providing significant margins to steam generator overfilling and reducing the need for operator actions. The behavior of the EP1000 plant following SGTR accidents has been analyzed by means of the RELAP5/Mod3.2 code. Sensitivity cases were performed, to address the impact of varying the number of steam generator tubes that rupture, and the potential adverse interactions that could result from operation of control systems (i.e., Chemical and Volume Control System, Startup Feedwater). Analyses have also been performed to define and verify improved protection system logic to avoid possible steam generator safety valve challenges both in the
On singular probability densities generated by extremal dynamics
Garcia, Guilherme J. M.; Dickman, Ronald
2003-01-01
Extremal dynamics is the mechanism that drives the Bak-Sneppen model into a (self-organized) critical state, marked by a singular stationary probability density $p(x)$. With the aim of understanding this phenomenon, we study the BS model and several variants via mean-field theory and simulation. In all cases, we find that $p(x)$ is singular at one or more points, as a consequence of extremal dynamics. Furthermore we show that the extremal barrier $x_i$ always belongs to the `prohibited' inter...
Demand and choice probability generating functions for perturbed consumers
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fosgerau, Mogens; McFadden, Daniel; Bierlaire, Michel
2011-01-01
This paper considers demand systems for utility-maximizing consumers equipped with additive linearly perturbed utility of the form U(x)+m⋅x and faced with general budget constraints x 2 B. Given compact budget sets, the paper provides necessary as well as sufficient conditions for a demand...... generating function to be consistent with utility maximization. Within a budget, the convex hull of the demand correspondence is the subdifferential of the demand generating function. The additive random utility discrete choice model (ARUM) is a special case with finite budget sets where utility is...... value distributions, and reviews and extends methods for constructing CPGF for applications. The results for ARUM are extended to competing risk survival models....
BHASKAR, Mithun; BENARJI, Mohan; MAHESWARAPU, Sydulu
2012-01-01
This paper presents a novel and superior Genetic Algorithm (GA) based resolver for Optimal Power flow (OPF) problem. Here, the main contrast to other Genetic Algorithm based approaches is that a novel expert based initial generation of population and adaptive probability approach (variable Cross over probability and mutation probability) is adopted in selection of offspring together with roulette wheel technique which reduces the computation time and increases the quality considerably. Select...
Estimation of Mutation Rates from Fluctuation Experiments via Probability Generating Functions
Montgomery-Smith, Stephen; Le, Anh; Smith, George; Billstein, Sidney; Oveys, Hesam; Pisechko, Dylan; Yates, Austin
2016-01-01
This paper calculates probability distributions modeling the Luria-Delbr\\"uck experiment. We show that by thinking purely in terms of generating functions, and using a 'backwards in time' paradigm, that formulas describing various situations can be easily obtained. This includes a generating function for Haldane's probability distribution due to Ycart. We apply our formulas to both simulated and real data created by looking at yeast cells acquiring an immunization to the antibiotic canavanine...
Oil spill risk assessment : probability and impact analyses with future projections
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper described a risk assessment methodology for oil spills in Washington State. The methodology involved analyzing spill probability by source, oil type, spill volume, season, and geographic zone. The method was used to develop probability distributions for actual spill volumes and probabilistic-based potential spill volumes for current and future risk assessments. The potential impact of spills based on geographic location, season, oil type and oil volume were assessed for inland freshwater and marine locations. Impacts were quantified and applied to spill distributions in order to determine risk scores. Risk quotients for each sector were divided by the grand total of risk quotients in order to derive a percentage or proportion value of risk. The risk scores were then used to develop relative risk matrices by source type and geographic zone for actual spill volumes. A customized spill database was developed to incorporate records of oil spill incidents in Washington waters of at least 50 gallons. Potential worst-case discharge (WCD) volumes were calculated for each spill. It was concluded that the methodology provides a state-of-the-art approach to evaluate the impact of a spill. 7 refs., 16 tabs., 3 figs
Mandal, K. G.; Padhi, J.; Kumar, A.; Ghosh, S.; Panda, D. K.; Mohanty, R. K.; Raychaudhuri, M.
2015-08-01
Rainfed agriculture plays and will continue to play a dominant role in providing food and livelihoods for an increasing world population. Rainfall analyses are helpful for proper crop planning under changing environment in any region. Therefore, in this paper, an attempt has been made to analyse 16 years of rainfall (1995-2010) at the Daspalla region in Odisha, eastern India for prediction using six probability distribution functions, forecasting the probable date of onset and withdrawal of monsoon, occurrence of dry spells by using Markov chain model and finally crop planning for the region. For prediction of monsoon and post-monsoon rainfall, log Pearson type III and Gumbel distribution were the best-fit probability distribution functions. The earliest and most delayed week of the onset of rainy season was the 20th standard meteorological week (SMW) (14th-20th May) and 25th SMW (18th-24th June), respectively. Similarly, the earliest and most delayed week of withdrawal of rainfall was the 39th SMW (24th-30th September) and 47th SMW (19th-25th November), respectively. The longest and shortest length of rainy season was 26 and 17 weeks, respectively. The chances of occurrence of dry spells are high from the 1st-22nd SMW and again the 42nd SMW to the end of the year. The probability of weeks (23rd-40th SMW) remaining wet varies between 62 and 100 % for the region. Results obtained through this analysis would be utilised for agricultural planning and mitigation of dry spells at the Daspalla region in Odisha, India.
Huang, N. E.; Long, S. R.
1980-01-01
Laboratory experiments were performed to measure the surface elevation probability density function and associated statistical properties for a wind-generated wave field. The laboratory data along with some limited field data were compared. The statistical properties of the surface elevation were processed for comparison with the results derived from the Longuet-Higgins (1963) theory. It is found that, even for the highly non-Gaussian cases, the distribution function proposed by Longuet-Higgins still gives good approximations.
A Handoff Technique to Reduce False-Handoff Probability in Next Generation Wireless Networks
Debabrata Sarddar; Kaushik Mandal; Tapas Jana; Utpal Biswas; M.K. Naskar
2010-01-01
Next Generation Wireless Systems (NGWS) include co-existence of current wireless technologies such as WLANs, WiMAX, General Packet Radio Service (GPRS) and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS). The most important and challenging issue is seamless handoffmanagement in NGWS to ensure the Quality of Service (QoS). In this article, we propose a GPS based handoff technique to improve handoff probability in NGWS. Using GPS we determine the direction of velocity of the MT (Mobile Termin...
The development of weak alpha source for the application to industrial probability generator
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
We have been developing a random number generator and probability generator that utilizes natural random phenomenon of radioactive alpha-decay. The time intervals of electric pulse signals induced in a semiconductor detector are converted to physical random number by measuring the interval as clock pulse counts. Since the time interval has an exponential distribution, ρ(t), depending on the count rate of original electric pulse signals, the probability (P(Δt)) is easily defined by P(Δt)=∫t1t2 ρdt/∫0∞ ρdt. The sealed 100 Bq 244Cm source pieces were supplied from the AEA technology. We selected pin-diode detector as the alpha detector. The source pieces were subjected to the test for thermal stress simulating the bonding process to mount the source into a small chip of probability generator. We confirmed that the sealed surface was not changed after adding the thermal stress by the observation with SEM. We have a next plan to replace 244Cm to natural radioisotope 210Pb. As the first step of this attempt, the methods for collecting 210Pb from several natural resources such as aerosol collected in HEPA filters, ground water, and natural radioactive minerals were surveyed. (author)
Fortran code for generating random probability vectors, unitaries, and quantum states
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jonas eMaziero
2016-03-01
Full Text Available The usefulness of generating random configurations is recognized in many areas of knowledge. Fortran was born for scientific computing and has been one of the main programming languages in this area since then. And several ongoing projects targeting towards its betterment indicate that it will keep this status in the decades to come. In this article, we describe Fortran codes produced, or organized, for the generation of the following random objects: numbers, probability vectors, unitary matrices, and quantum state vectors and density matrices. Some matrix functions are also included and may be of independent interest.
Minimization of Handoff Failure Probability for Next-Generation Wireless Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Debabrata Sarddar
2010-06-01
Full Text Available During the past few years, advances in mobile communication theory have enabled the development anddeployment of different wireless technologies, complementary to each other. Hence, their integration canrealize a unified wireless system that has the best features of the individual networks. Next-GenerationWireless Systems (NGWS integrate different wireless systems, each of which is optimized for somespecific services and coverage area to provide ubiquitous communications to the mobile users. In thispaper, we propose to enhance the handoff performance of mobile IP in wireless IP networks by reducingthe false handoff probability in the NGWS handoff management protocol. Based on the information offalse handoff probability, we analyze its effect on mobile speed and handoff signaling delay.
Fortran code for generating random probability vectors, unitaries, and quantum states
Maziero, Jonas
2015-01-01
The usefulness of generating random configurations is recognized in a variety of contexts, as for instance in the simulation of physical systems, in the verification of bounds and/or ansatz solutions for optimization problems, and in secure communications. Fortran was born for scientific computing and has been one of the main programming languages in this area since then. And the several ongoing projects targeting towards its betterment indicate that it will keep this status in the decades to come. In this article, we describe Fortran codes produced, or organized, for the generation of the following random objects: numbers, probability vectors, unitary matrices, and quantum state vectors and density matrices. Some matrix functions are also included and may be of independent interest.
On the probability of exceeding allowable leak rates through degraded steam generator tubes
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cizelj, L.; Sorsek, I. [Jozef Stefan Institute, Ljubljana (Slovenia); Riesch-Oppermann, H. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe (Germany)
1997-02-01
This paper discusses some possible ways of predicting the behavior of the total leak rate through the damaged steam generator tubes. This failure mode is of special concern in cases where most through-wall defects may remain In operation. A particular example is the application of alternate (bobbin coil voltage) plugging criterion to Outside Diameter Stress Corrosion Cracking at the tube support plate intersections. It is the authors aim to discuss some possible modeling options that could be applied to solve the problem formulated as: Estimate the probability that the sum of all individual leak rates through degraded tubes exceeds the predefined acceptable value. The probabilistic approach is of course aiming at reliable and computationaly bearable estimate of the failure probability. A closed form solution is given for a special case of exponentially distributed individual leak rates. Also, some possibilities for the use of computationaly efficient First and Second Order Reliability Methods (FORM and SORM) are discussed. The first numerical example compares the results of approximate methods with closed form results. SORM in particular shows acceptable agreement. The second numerical example considers a realistic case of NPP in Krsko, Slovenia.
A Handoff Technique to Reduce False-Handoff Probability in Next Generation Wireless Networks
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Debabrata Sarddar
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Next Generation Wireless Systems (NGWS include co-existence of current wireless technologies such as WLANs, WiMAX, General Packet Radio Service (GPRS and Universal Mobile Telecommunications System (UMTS. The most important and challenging issue is seamless handoffmanagement in NGWS to ensure the Quality of Service (QoS. In this article, we propose a GPS based handoff technique to improve handoff probability in NGWS. Using GPS we determine the direction of velocity of the MT (Mobile Terminal. In earlier works handoff based on Relative Signal Strength (RSS of BS (base station was proposed. But in the case when a MT is moving towards an NBS whose RSS is less than that of its adjacent NBS, to take the decision of handover is quite decisive. But using GPS we can ensure efficient hand-off. The result shows that the proposed approach can solve the problem and helps to take the right decision decreasing false hand-off initiation probability.
Generating function for particle-number probability distribution in directed percolation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
We derive a generic expression for the generating function (GF) of the particle-number probability distribution (PNPD) for a simple reaction diffusion model that belongs to the directed percolation universality class. Starting with a single particle on a lattice, we show that the GF of the PNPD can be written as an infinite series of cumulants taken at zero momentum. This series can be summed up into a complete form at the level of a mean-field approximation. Using the renormalization group techniques, we determine logarithmic corrections for the GF at the upper critical dimension. We also find the critical scaling form for the PNPD and check its universality numerically in one dimension. The critical scaling function is found to be universal up to two non-universal metric factors
Power generation in India: analysing trends and outlook
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The objective of this report is to provide up-to-date data, critical analysis and information encompassing all aspects of power generation in India. The report provides historic and future outlook for power generation in India. It also provides an evaluation of private participation in power generation segment of India and investment opportunities in Indian power sector. In addition, the report examines policies, regulatory framework and financing of power generation in India. It also highlights key issues and challenges that are restricting the accelerated development of this sector. The report has thirteen chapters in total. (author)
The probability of generating the symmetric group with a commutator condition
Birulia, Raman
2012-01-01
Let B(n) be the set of pairs of permutations from the symmetric group of degree n with a 3-cycle commutator, and let A(n) be the set of those pairs which generate the symmetric or the alternating group of degree n. We find effective formulas for calculating the cardinalities of both sets. More precisely, we show that #B(n)/n! is a discrete convolution of the partition function and a linear combination of divisor functions, while #A(n)/n! is the product of a polynomial and Jordan's totient function. In particular, it follows that the probability that a pair of random permutations with a 3-cycle commutator generates the symmetric or the alternating group of degree n tends to zero as n tends to infinity, which makes a contrast with Dixon's classical result. Key elements of our proofs are Jordan's theorem from the 19th century, a formula by Ramanujan from the 20th century and a technique of square-tiled surfaces developed by French mathematicians Lelievre and Royer in the beginning of the 21st century. This paper...
ANALYSING SOLAR-WIND HYBRID POWER GENERATING SYSTEM
Mustafa ENGİN; Metin ÇOLAK
2005-01-01
In this paper, a solar-wind hybrid power generating, system that will be used for security lighting was designed. Hybrid system was installed and solar cells, wind turbine, battery bank, charge regulators and inverter performance values were measured through the whole year. Using measured values of overall system efficiency, reliability, demanded energy cost per kWh were calculated, and percentage of generated energy according to resources were defined. We also include in the paper a discussi...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The evolution of the scalar probability density function (pdf), the conditional scalar dissipation rate, and other statistics including transport properties are studied for passive temperature fluctuations in decaying grid-generated turbulence. The effect of filtering and differentiating the time series is also investigated. For a nonzero mean temperature gradient it is shown that the pdf of the temperature fluctuations has pronounced exponential tails for turbulence Reynolds number (Rel) greater than 70 but below this value the pdf is close to Gaussian. The scalar dissipation rate, conditioned on the fluctuations, shows that there is a high expectation of dissipation in the presence of the large, rare fluctuations that produce the exponential tails. Significant positive correlation between the mean square scalar fluctuations and the instantaneous scalar dissipation rate is found when exponential tails occur. The case of temperature fluctuations in the absence of a mean gradient is also studied. Here, the results are less definite because the generation of the fluctuations (by means of fine heated wires) causes an asymmetry in the pdf. The results show, however, that the pdf is close to Gaussian and that the correlation between the mean square temperature fluctuations and the instantaneous scalar dissipation rate is very weak. For the linear profile case, measurements over the range 60≤Rel≤1100 show that the dimensionless heat flux Nu is proportional to Rel0.88 and that the transition from a Gaussian pdf to one with exponential tails occurs at Nu∼31, a value close to transitions observed in other recent mixing experiments conducted in entirely different turbulent flows
Results of Analyses of the Next Generation Solvent for Parsons
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) prepared a nominal 150 gallon batch of Next Generation Solvent (NGS) for Parsons. This material was then analyzed and tested for cesium mass transfer efficiency. The bulk of the results indicate that the solvent is qualified as acceptable for use in the upcoming pilot-scale testing at Parsons Technology Center. This report describes the analysis and testing of a batch of Next Generation Solvent (NGS) prepared in support of pilot-scale testing in the Parsons Technology Center. A total of ∼150 gallons of NGS solvent was prepared in late November of 2011. Details for the work are contained in a controlled laboratory notebook. Analysis of the Parsons NGS solvent indicates that the material is acceptable for use. SRNL is continuing to improve the analytical method for the guanidine.
Automatic generation of alignments for 3D QSAR analyses.
Jewell, N E; Turner, D B; Willett, P; Sexton, G J
2001-01-01
Many 3D QSAR methods require the alignment of the molecules in a dataset, which can require a fair amount of manual effort in deciding upon a rational basis for the superposition. This paper describes the use of FBSS, a program for field-based similarity searching in chemical databases, for generating such alignments automatically. The CoMFA and CoMSIA experiments with several literature datasets show that the QSAR models resulting from the FBSS alignments are broadly comparable in predictive performance with the models resulting from manual alignments. PMID:11774998
Automatic generation of alignments for 3D QSAR analyses
Jewell, N.E.; D.B. Turner; Willett, P.; Sexton, G.J.
2001-01-01
Many 3D QSAR methods require the alignment of the molecules in a dataset, which can require a fair amount of manual effort in deciding upon a rational basis for the superposition. This paper describes the use of FBSS, a pro-ram for field-based similarity searching in chemical databases, for generating such alignments automatically. The CoMFA and CoMSIA experiments with several literature datasets show that the QSAR models resulting from the FBSS alignments are broadly comparable in predictive...
Inverse analyses of laser generated dispersive surface waves
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper presents results on the inverse analysis of laser generated surface waves in a epoxy bonded layered specimen. Laser ultrasonic experiments were performed and the acquired surface wave signals were processed in the frequency domain to obtain the dispersion relation of the phase velocity in a epoxy-bonded layered specimen. A computer program for calculating the phase velocity dispersion of general isotropic and/or anisotropic layered media was utilized to explore the influence of the epoxy-bonded layer. Inversions of the bonding layer thickness and the elastic wave velocities of the epoxy layer were investigated. The current results show that the thickness and the elastic wave velocities of the bonding layer can be successfully determined. Simultaneous determination of the thickness and the elastic properties of the bonding layer are currently under investigation by the authors.
Next generation sequencing and comparative analyses of Xenopus mitogenomes
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Lloyd Rhiannon E
2012-09-01
-coding genes were shown to be under strong negative (purifying selection, with genes under the strongest pressure (Complex 4 also being the most highly expressed, highlighting their potentially crucial functions in the mitochondrial respiratory chain. Conclusions Next generation sequencing of long-PCR amplicons using single taxon or multi-taxon approaches enabled two new species of Xenopus mtDNA to be fully characterized. We anticipate our complete mitochondrial genome amplification methods to be applicable to other amphibians, helpful for identifying the most appropriate markers for differentiating species, populations and resolving phylogenies, a pressing need since amphibians are undergoing drastic global decline. Our mtDNAs also provide templates for conserved primer design and the assembly of RNA and DNA reads following high throughput “omic” techniques such as RNA- and ChIP-seq. These could help us better understand how processes such mitochondrial replication and gene expression influence xenopus growth and development, as well as how they evolved and are regulated.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Haploid cells of Saccharomyces cerevisiae were treated with different DNA damaging agents at various doses. A study of the progeny of individual such cells allowed the assignment of lethal events to distinct post treatment generations. By microscopically inspecting those cells which were not able to form visible colonies the authors could discriminate between cells dying from immediately effective lethal hits and those generating microcolonies probably as a consequence of lethal mutation(s). The experimentally obtained numbers of lethal events were mathematically transformed into mean probabilities of lethal fixations at taking place in cells of certain post treatment generations. Such analyses give detailed insight into the kinetics of lethality as a consequence of different kinds of DNA damage. For example, X-irradiated cells lost viability mainly by lethal hits, only at a higher dose also lethal mutations fixed in the cells that were in direct contact with the mutagen, but not in later generations, occurred. Ethyl methanesulfonate (EMS)-treated cells were hit by 00-fixations in a dose dependent manner. The distribution of all sorts of lethal fixations taken together, which occurred in the EMS-damaged cell families, was not random. For comparison analyses of cells treated with methyl methanesulfonate, N-methyl-N'-nitro-N-nitrosoguanidine and nitrous acid are also reported
Ivana, Pavol; Vlcek, Ivan; Ivanova, Marika
2016-01-01
Maxwell dynamic equation of Faraday law erroneously predicts that on homopolar without brush generator, the relative movement of the wire is equivalent with relative motion of the conductor of Faraday homopolar generator and therefore electric intensity must be generated at both devices. Research has shown that it is possible to construct experimental without brush homopolar generator, which proves that movement of electrically neutral conductor in radials of homogeneous magnetic field does n...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Vacca, Alessandro; Prato, Carlo Giacomo; Meloni, Italo
2015-01-01
extracted with stochastic route generation. The term is easily applicable to large-scale networks and various environments, given its dependence only on a random number generator and the Dijkstra shortest path algorithm. The implementation for revealed preferences data, which consist of actual route choices...... is the dependency of the parameter estimates from the choice set generation technique. Bias introduced in model estimation has been corrected only for the random walk algorithm, which has problematic applicability to large-scale networks. This study proposes a correction term for the sampling probability of routes...
Chikkagoudar, Satish; Roshan, Usman; Livesay, Dennis
2007-01-01
Probalign computes maximal expected accuracy multiple sequence alignments from partition function posterior probabilities. To date, Probalign is among the very best scoring methods on the BAliBASE, HOMSTRAD and OXBENCH benchmarks. Here, we introduce eProbalign, which is an online implementation of the approach. Moreover, the eProbalign web server doubles as an online platform for post-alignment analysis. The heart-and-soul of the post-alignment functionality is the Probalign Alignment Viewer ...
Actual and perceived low-probability hazards from hydro and nuclear electric power generation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The paper focuses on the low-probability high-consequence events, whose impact on the public opinion is larger, if and when they occur. Hazard is defined as the probability of occurrence of potentially damaging events, whereas risk is used as a merely generic word. In the absence of complete hydro risk studies, a simplified method is developed to estimate the regional seismic hazard for all projected dam sites in a given country. As an illustration, the lower and upper bounds of the seismic hazard are calculated for 86 dam sites in Colombia. This hazard is about two orders of magnitude higher than the hazard posed by a comparable nuclear system. Further, risk perception in Colombia is discussed. By using a questionnaire formulated by the International Atomic Energy Agency it was found that the Colombian public perceives hydro power stations as posing no risk whatsoever, while nuclear risks are perceived as significant. These results run counter to the calculations given in the paper and to some observed facts: two dam collapses in the last twenty years and several devastating earthquakes during the same time period, each individual event causing hundreds of casualties. It is concluded that public perception is not a very good measure for low-probability hazards. It is suggested, therefore, that public opinion should not be taken into account for specific technological risk decisions, but rather should play a role in defining the overall societal safety policies, by using whichever political process may be appropriate in each particular society. (author)
Hu, Yaogang; Li, Hui; Liao, Xinglin; Song, Erbing; Liu, Haitao; Chen, Z.
2016-08-01
This study determines the early deterioration condition of critical components for a wind turbine generator system (WTGS). Due to the uncertainty nature of the fluctuation and intermittence of wind, early deterioration condition evaluation poses a challenge to the traditional vibration-based condition monitoring methods. Considering the its thermal inertia and strong anti-interference capacity, temperature characteristic parameters as a deterioration indication cannot be adequately disturbed by the uncontrollable noise and uncertainty nature of wind. This paper provides a probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition for critical components based only on temperature characteristic parameters. First, the dynamic threshold of deterioration degree function was proposed by analyzing the operational data between temperature and rotor speed. Second, a probability evaluation method of early deterioration condition was presented. Finally, two cases showed the validity of the proposed probability evaluation method in detecting early deterioration condition and in tracking their further deterioration for the critical components.
Ivana, Pavol; Ivanova, Marika
2016-01-01
Maxwell dynamic equation of Faraday law erroneously predicts that on homopolar without brush generator, the relative movement of the wire is equivalent with relative motion of the conductor of Faraday homopolar generator and therefore electric intensity must be generated at both devices. Research has shown that it is possible to construct experimental without brush homopolar generator, which proves that movement of electrically neutral conductor in radials of homogeneous magnetic field does not induce any voltage. A new description of the operation of Faraday (with brushes) homopolar generator is here presented such as equipment, which simulates necessary and sufficient condition for the formation of the induction. However, the without brush homopolar meets only a necessary condition, but not sufficient. This article includes a mathematical analysis that shows the current differential concept of the rotation intensity vector creation as an incorrect theoretical mission with minimal impact on the design of kno...
PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFTS AND QUASAR PROBABILITIES FROM A SINGLE, DATA-DRIVEN GENERATIVE MODEL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
We describe a technique for simultaneously classifying and estimating the redshift of quasars. It can separate quasars from stars in arbitrary redshift ranges, estimate full posterior distribution functions for the redshift, and naturally incorporate flux uncertainties, missing data, and multi-wavelength photometry. We build models of quasars in flux-redshift space by applying the extreme deconvolution technique to estimate the underlying density. By integrating this density over redshift, one can obtain quasar flux densities in different redshift ranges. This approach allows for efficient, consistent, and fast classification and photometric redshift estimation. This is achieved by combining the speed obtained by choosing simple analytical forms as the basis of our density model with the flexibility of non-parametric models through the use of many simple components with many parameters. We show that this technique is competitive with the best photometric quasar classification techniques—which are limited to fixed, broad redshift ranges and high signal-to-noise ratio data—and with the best photometric redshift techniques when applied to broadband optical data. We demonstrate that the inclusion of UV and NIR data significantly improves photometric quasar-star separation and essentially resolves all of the redshift degeneracies for quasars inherent to the ugriz filter system, even when included data have a low signal-to-noise ratio. For quasars spectroscopically confirmed by the SDSS 84% and 97% of the objects with Galaxy Evolution Explorer UV and UKIDSS NIR data have photometric redshifts within 0.1 and 0.3, respectively, of the spectroscopic redshift; this amounts to about a factor of three improvement over ugriz-only photometric redshifts. Our code to calculate quasar probabilities and redshift probability distributions is publicly available.
Tilly, David; Ahnesjö, Anders
2015-07-01
A fast algorithm is constructed to facilitate dose calculation for a large number of randomly sampled treatment scenarios, each representing a possible realisation of a full treatment with geometric, fraction specific displacements for an arbitrary number of fractions. The algorithm is applied to construct a dose volume coverage probability map (DVCM) based on dose calculated for several hundred treatment scenarios to enable the probabilistic evaluation of a treatment plan. For each treatment scenario, the algorithm calculates the total dose by perturbing a pre-calculated dose, separately for the primary and scatter dose components, for the nominal conditions. The ratio of the scenario specific accumulated fluence, and the average fluence for an infinite number of fractions is used to perturb the pre-calculated dose. Irregularities in the accumulated fluence may cause numerical instabilities in the ratio, which is mitigated by regularisation through convolution with a dose pencil kernel. Compared to full dose calculations the algorithm demonstrates a speedup factor of ~1000. The comparisons to full calculations show a 99% gamma index (2%/2 mm) pass rate for a single highly modulated beam in a virtual water phantom subject to setup errors during five fractions. The gamma comparison shows a 100% pass rate in a moving tumour irradiated by a single beam in a lung-like virtual phantom. DVCM iso-probability lines computed with the fast algorithm, and with full dose calculation for each of the fractions, for a hypo-fractionated prostate case treated with rotational arc therapy treatment were almost indistinguishable.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A fast algorithm is constructed to facilitate dose calculation for a large number of randomly sampled treatment scenarios, each representing a possible realisation of a full treatment with geometric, fraction specific displacements for an arbitrary number of fractions. The algorithm is applied to construct a dose volume coverage probability map (DVCM) based on dose calculated for several hundred treatment scenarios to enable the probabilistic evaluation of a treatment plan.For each treatment scenario, the algorithm calculates the total dose by perturbing a pre-calculated dose, separately for the primary and scatter dose components, for the nominal conditions. The ratio of the scenario specific accumulated fluence, and the average fluence for an infinite number of fractions is used to perturb the pre-calculated dose. Irregularities in the accumulated fluence may cause numerical instabilities in the ratio, which is mitigated by regularisation through convolution with a dose pencil kernel.Compared to full dose calculations the algorithm demonstrates a speedup factor of ∼1000. The comparisons to full calculations show a 99% gamma index (2%/2 mm) pass rate for a single highly modulated beam in a virtual water phantom subject to setup errors during five fractions. The gamma comparison shows a 100% pass rate in a moving tumour irradiated by a single beam in a lung-like virtual phantom. DVCM iso-probability lines computed with the fast algorithm, and with full dose calculation for each of the fractions, for a hypo-fractionated prostate case treated with rotational arc therapy treatment were almost indistinguishable. (paper)
Minimization of Handoff Failure Probability for Next-Generation Wireless Systems
Debabrata Sarddar; Tapas Jana; Souvik Kumar Saha; Joydeep Banerjee; Utpal Biswas; M.K.Naskar
2010-01-01
During the past few years, advances in mobile communication theory have enabled the development and deployment of different wireless technologies, complementary to each other. Hence, their integration can realize a unified wireless system that has the best features of the individual networks. Next-Generation Wireless Systems (NGWS) integrate different wireless systems, each of which is optimized for some specific services and coverage area to provide ubiquitous communications to the mobile us...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The approach estimating the leak probability of flanged joint due to the destruction of fastening studs is described. The mentioned approach consists of two stages. The probability of destroying one stud is calculated at the first stage, and the probability of different combination interpositions of intact and destroyed studs is calculated at the second one. The probability calculation of leak in the area of collector cover of steam generator PGV-1000 is used as an example of developed approach
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cai, H.; Wang, M.; Elgowainy, A.; Han, J. (Energy Systems)
2012-07-06
Greenhouse gas (CO{sub 2}, CH{sub 4} and N{sub 2}O, hereinafter GHG) and criteria air pollutant (CO, NO{sub x}, VOC, PM{sub 10}, PM{sub 2.5} and SO{sub x}, hereinafter CAP) emission factors for various types of power plants burning various fuels with different technologies are important upstream parameters for estimating life-cycle emissions associated with alternative vehicle/fuel systems in the transportation sector, especially electric vehicles. The emission factors are typically expressed in grams of GHG or CAP per kWh of electricity generated by a specific power generation technology. This document describes our approach for updating and expanding GHG and CAP emission factors in the GREET (Greenhouse Gases, Regulated Emissions, and Energy Use in Transportation) model developed at Argonne National Laboratory (see Wang 1999 and the GREET website at http://greet.es.anl.gov/main) for various power generation technologies. These GHG and CAP emissions are used to estimate the impact of electricity use by stationary and transportation applications on their fuel-cycle emissions. The electricity generation mixes and the fuel shares attributable to various combustion technologies at the national, regional and state levels are also updated in this document. The energy conversion efficiencies of electric generating units (EGUs) by fuel type and combustion technology are calculated on the basis of the lower heating values of each fuel, to be consistent with the basis used in GREET for transportation fuels. On the basis of the updated GHG and CAP emission factors and energy efficiencies of EGUs, the probability distribution functions (PDFs), which are functions that describe the relative likelihood for the emission factors and energy efficiencies as random variables to take on a given value by the integral of their own probability distributions, are updated using best-fit statistical curves to characterize the uncertainties associated with GHG and CAP emissions in life
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
PSA analysis should be based on the best available data for the types of equipment and systems in the plant. In some cases very limited data may be available for evolutionary designs or new equipments, especially in the case of passive systems. It has been recognized that difficulties arise in addressing the uncertainties related to the physical phenomena and characterizing the parameters relevant to the passive system performance evaluation, since the unavailability of a consistent operational and experimental data base. This lack of experimental evidence and validated data forces the analyst to resort to expert/engineering judgment to a large extent, thus making the results strongly dependent upon the expert elicitation process. This prompts the need for the development of a framework for constructing a database to generate probability distributions for the parameters influencing the system behaviour. The objective of the task is to develop a consistent framework aimed at creating probability distributions for the parameters relevant to the passive system performance evaluation. In order to achieve this goal considerable experience and engineering judgement are also required to determine which existing data are most applicable to the new systems or which generic data bases or models provide the best information for the system design. Eventually in case of absence of documented specific reliability data, documented expert judgement coming out from a well structured procedure could be used to envisage sound probability distributions for the parameters under interest
Shiryaev, Albert N
2016-01-01
This book contains a systematic treatment of probability from the ground up, starting with intuitive ideas and gradually developing more sophisticated subjects, such as random walks, martingales, Markov chains, the measure-theoretic foundations of probability theory, weak convergence of probability measures, and the central limit theorem. Many examples are discussed in detail, and there are a large number of exercises. The book is accessible to advanced undergraduates and can be used as a text for independent study. To accommodate the greatly expanded material in the third edition of Probability, the book is now divided into two volumes. This first volume contains updated references and substantial revisions of the first three chapters of the second edition. In particular, new material has been added on generating functions, the inclusion-exclusion principle, theorems on monotonic classes (relying on a detailed treatment of “π-λ” systems), and the fundamental theorems of mathematical statistics.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chung-Ho Su
2010-12-01
Full Text Available To forecast a complex and non-linear system, such as a stock market, advanced artificial intelligence algorithms, like neural networks (NNs and genetic algorithms (GAs have been proposed as new approaches. However, for the average stock investor, two major disadvantages are argued against these advanced algorithms: (1 the rules generated by NNs and GAs are difficult to apply in investment decisions; and (2 the time complexity of the algorithms to produce forecasting outcomes is very high. Therefore, to provide understandable rules for investors and to reduce the time complexity of forecasting algorithms, this paper proposes a novel model for the forecasting process, which combines two granulating methods (the minimize entropy principle approach and the cumulative probability distribution approach and a rough set algorithm. The model verification demonstrates that the proposed model surpasses the three listed conventional fuzzy time-series models and a multiple regression model (MLR in forecast accuracy.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
To ensure the safety operation of nuclear power plant (NPP), a lot of postulated accident scenarios were considered and analysed. This research chose and analysed the accident of steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) under the actual plant conditions by using the simulation program PCTRAN. The SGTR accident is happen when the NPP is under operation with the steady state condition (power of 3000 MWth, primary pressure of 157 bar and secondary pressure of 63 bar). The accident is initiated by creating a break with equivalent diameter of 100 mm in the area of lower row heat exchanging tubes. The result of analysis is compared with the calculation of the Shariz University, Iran using the thermal hydraulics code RELAP5/mod3.2 and the report in the PSAR data of VVER-1000. This comparison shows that it is possible for using PCTRAN to analyse accidents of VVER-1000 reactor. (author)
Elastic-plastic fracture mechanics analyses of cracked steam generator tubes under internal pressure
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Hyeong Keun; Ahn, Min Yong; Moon, Seong In; Chang, Yoon Suk; Kim, Young Jin [Sungkyunkwan Univ., Suwon (Korea, Republic of); Hwang, Seong Sik; Kim, Joung Soo [KAERI, Taejon (Korea, Republic of)
2005-07-01
The structural and leakage integrity of steam generator tube should be maintained during operation even though a crack is existed on it. During the past three decades, several limit load solutions have been proposed to resolve the integrity issue. However, for exact load carrying capacity estimation of specific components under different conditions, these solutions have to be modified by using lots of experimental data. The purpose of this paper is to introduce a new burst pressure estimation scheme based on fracture mechanics analyses for steam generator tube with an axial or circumferential through-wall crack. To do this, closed-form engineering equations were derived to get relevant parameters from three dimensional elastic-plastic finite element analyses combined with reference stress method. Also, a series of structural integrity analyses were carried out using the calculated J-integral from engineering equations and fracture toughness data. Thereby, in comparison with the experimental data as well as corresponding estimation results from limit load solutions, it was proven that the proposed estimation scheme can be used as an efficient tool for integrity evaluation of cracked steam generator tubes.
Analyses of Acoustic Streaming Generated by Four Ultrasonic Vibrators in a Vessel
Nakagawa, Masafumi
2004-05-01
When ultrasonic waves are applied, the heat transfer at a heated surface in water increases markedly. The origin of this increase in heat transfer is thought to be due to the agitation effect from the microjets of cavitation and from acoustic streaming. The method in which four vibrators are used has the ability of further enhancing heat transfer. This paper presents the method using four vibrators to eject an acoustic stream jet at a selected position in the vessel. Analyses of this method are performed to establish it theoretically and to compare with an experiment previously conducted. The analyses shown in this research indicate that the aspects of acoustic streaming generated by the four vibrators in the vessel can be correctly predicted and provide a foundation for the development of using this method for the enhancement of heat transfer.
Rincon, Diego F; Hoy, Casey W; Cañas, Luis A
2015-04-01
Most predator-prey models extrapolate functional responses from small-scale experiments assuming spatially uniform within-plant predator-prey interactions. However, some predators focus their search in certain plant regions, and herbivores tend to select leaves to balance their nutrient uptake and exposure to plant defenses. Individual-based models that account for heterogeneous within-plant predator-prey interactions can be used to scale-up functional responses, but they would require the generation of explicit prey spatial distributions within-plant architecture models. The silverleaf whitefly, Bemisia tabaci biotype B (Gennadius) (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is a significant pest of tomato crops worldwide that exhibits highly aggregated populations at several spatial scales, including within the plant. As part of an analytical framework to understand predator-silverleaf whitefly interactions, the objective of this research was to develop an algorithm to generate explicit spatial counts of silverleaf whitefly nymphs within tomato plants. The algorithm requires the plant size and the number of silverleaf whitefly individuals to distribute as inputs, and includes models that describe infestation probabilities per leaf nodal position and the aggregation pattern of the silverleaf whitefly within tomato plants and leaves. The output is a simulated number of silverleaf whitefly individuals for each leaf and leaflet on one or more plants. Parameter estimation was performed using nymph counts per leaflet censused from 30 artificially infested tomato plants. Validation revealed a substantial agreement between algorithm outputs and independent data that included the distribution of counts of both eggs and nymphs. This algorithm can be used in simulation models that explore the effect of local heterogeneity on whitefly-predator dynamics. PMID:26313173
Zhao, Song-Feng; Zhou, Xiao-Xin; Lin, C. D.
It is shown that measurement of alignment-dependent ionization probability and high-order harmonic generation (HHG) of molecules in an intense laser field can be used to probe the orbital symmetry of molecules. In this review, recent progress of molecular tunneling ionization (MO-ADK) model of Tong et al. [Phys. Rev. A 66, 033402 (2002)] is first reviewed. In particular, an efficient method to obtain wavefunctions of linear molecules in the asymptotic region was developed by solving the time-independent Schrödinger equation with B-spline functions, and molecular potential energy surfaces were constructed based on the density functional theory. The accurate wavefunctions are used to extract improved structure parameters in the MO-ADK model. The loss of accuracy of the MO-ADK model in the low intensity multiphoton ionization regime is also addressed by comparing with the molecular Perelomov-Popov-Terent'ev (MO-PPT) model, the single-active-electron time-dependent Schrödinger equation (SAE-TDSE) method, and the experimental data. Finally, how the orbital symmetry affects the HHG of molecules within the strong-field approximation (SFA) was reviewed.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Air traffic control (ATC) primary radars are 'classical' radars that use echoes of radiofrequency (RF) pulses from aircraft to determine their position. High-power RF pulses radiated from radar antennas may produce high electromagnetic field levels in the surrounding area. Measurement of electromagnetic fields produced by RF-pulsed radar by means of a swept-tuned spectrum analyser are investigated here. Measurements have been carried out both in the laboratory and in situ on signals generated by an ATC primary radar. (authors)
Life cycle analyses applied to first generation bio-fuels consumed in France
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This rather voluminous publication reports detailed life cycle analyses for the different present bio-fuels channels also named first-generation bio-fuels: bio-ethanol, bio-diesel, pure vegetal oils, and oil. After a recall of the general principles adopted for this life-cycle analysis, it reports the modelling of the different channels (agricultural steps, bio-fuel production steps, Ethyl tert-butyl ether or ETBE steps, vehicles, animal fats and used vegetal oils, soil assignment change). It gives synthetic descriptions of the different production ways (methyl ester from different plants, ethanol from different plants). It reports and compares the results obtained in terms of performance
Analyses of an air conditioning system with entropy generation minimization and entransy theory
Yan-Qiu, Wu; Li, Cai; Hong-Juan, Wu
2016-06-01
In this paper, based on the generalized heat transfer law, an air conditioning system is analyzed with the entropy generation minimization and the entransy theory. Taking the coefficient of performance (denoted as COP) and heat flow rate Q out which is released into the room as the optimization objectives, we discuss the applicabilities of the entropy generation minimization and entransy theory to the optimizations. Five numerical cases are presented. Combining the numerical results and theoretical analyses, we can conclude that the optimization applicabilities of the two theories are conditional. If Q out is the optimization objective, larger entransy increase rate always leads to larger Q out, while smaller entropy generation rate does not. If we take COP as the optimization objective, neither the entropy generation minimization nor the concept of entransy increase is always applicable. Furthermore, we find that the concept of entransy dissipation is not applicable for the discussed cases. Project supported by the Youth Programs of Chongqing Three Gorges University, China (Grant No. 13QN18).
Lexicographic probability, conditional probability, and nonstandard probability
Halpern, Joseph Y.
2003-01-01
The relationship between Popper spaces (conditional probability spaces that satisfy some regularity conditions), lexicographic probability systems (LPS's), and nonstandard probability spaces (NPS's) is considered. If countable additivity is assumed, Popper spaces and a subclass of LPS's are equivalent; without the assumption of countable additivity, the equivalence no longer holds. If the state space is finite, LPS's are equivalent to NPS's. However, if the state space is infinite, NPS's are ...
Liu, Zhanqi; Panousis, Con; Smyth, Fiona E; Murphy, Roger; Wirth, Veronika; Cartwright, Glenn; Johns, Terrance G; Scott, Andrew M
2003-08-01
The chimeric monoclonal antibody ch806 specifically targets the tumor-associated mutant epidermal growth factor receptor (de 2-7EGFR or EGFRVIII) and is currently under investigation for its potential use in cancer therapy. The humanised monoclonal antibody hu3S193 specifically targets the Lewis Y epithelial antigen and is currently in Phase I clinical trials in patients with advanced breast, colon, and ovarian carcinomas. To assist the clinical evaluation of ch806 and hu3S193, laboratory assays are required to monitor their serum pharmacokinetics and quantitate any immune responses to the antibodies. Mice immunized with ch806 or hu3S193 were used to generate hybridomas producing antibodies with specific binding to ch806 or hu3S193 and competitive for antigen binding. These anti-idiotype antibodies (designated Ludwig Melbourne Hybridomas, LMH) were investigated as reagents suitable for use as positive controls for HAHA or HACA analyses and for measuring hu3S193 or ch806 in human serum. Anti-idiotypes with the ability to concurrently bind two target antibody molecules were identified, which enabled the development of highly reproducible, sensitive, specific ELISA assays for determining serum concentrations of hu3S193 and ch806 with a 3 ng/mL limit of quantitation using LMH-3 and LMH-12, respectively. BIAcore analyses determined high apparent binding affinity for both idiotypes: LMH-3 binding immobilized hu3S193, Ka = 4.76 x 10(8) M(-1); LMH-12 binding immobilised ch806, Ka = 1.74 x 10(9) M(-1). Establishment of HAHA or HACA analysis of sera samples using BIAcore was possible using LMH-3 and LMH-12 as positive controls for quantitation of immune responses to hu3S193 or ch806 in patient sera. These anti-idiotypes could also be used to study the penetrance and binding of ch806 or hu3S193 to tumor cells through immunohistochemical analysis of tumor biopsies. The generation of anti-idiotype antibodies capable of concurrently binding a target antibody on each variable
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hu, Y.; Li, H.; Liao, X;
2016-01-01
-based condition monitoring methods. Considering the its thermal inertia and strong anti-interference capacity, temperature characteristic parameters as a deterioration indication cannot be adequately disturbed by the uncontrollable noise and uncertainty nature of wind. This paper provides a probability evaluation...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Up to 2009, the author and a colleague conducted trend analyses of problem events related to main generators, emergency diesel generators, breakers, motors and transformers which are more likely to cause problems than other electric components in nuclear power plants. Among the electric components with high frequency of defect occurrence, i.e., emergency diesel generators, several years have passed since the last analyses. These are very important components needed to stop a nuclear reactor safely and to cool it down during external power supply loses. Then trend analyses were conducted for the second time. The trend analyses were performed on 80 problem events with emergency diesel generators which had occurred in U.S. nuclear power plants in the five years from 2005 through 2009 among events reported in the Licensee Event Reports (LERs: event reports submitted to NRC by U.S. nuclear power plants) which have been registered in the nuclear information database of the Institute of Nuclear Safety System, Inc. (INSS) , as well as 40 events registered in the Nuclear Information Archives (NUCIA), which occurred in Japanese nuclear power plants in the same time period. It was learned from the trend analyses of the problem events with emergency diesel generators that frequency of defect occurrence are high in both Japanese and US plants during plant operations and functional tests (that is, defects can be discovered effectively in advance), so that implementation of periodical functional tests under plant operation is an important task for the future. (author)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Long Cui
Full Text Available We present the genetic analyses conducted on a three-generation family (14 individuals with three members affected with isolated-Hirschsprung disease (HSCR and one with HSCR and heterochromia iridum (syndromic-HSCR, a phenotype reminiscent of Waardenburg-Shah syndrome (WS4. WS4 is characterized by pigmentary abnormalities of the skin, eyes and/or hair, sensorineural deafness and HSCR. None of the members had sensorineural deafness. The family was screened for copy number variations (CNVs using Illumina-HumanOmni2.5-Beadchip and for coding sequence mutations in WS4 genes (EDN3, EDNRB, or SOX10 and in the main HSCR gene (RET. Confocal microscopy and immunoblotting were used to assess the functional impact of the mutations. A heterozygous A/G transition in EDNRB was identified in 4 affected and 3 unaffected individuals. While in EDNRB isoforms 1 and 2 (cellular receptor the transition results in the abolishment of translation initiation (M1V, in isoform 3 (only in the cytosol the replacement occurs at Met91 (M91V and is predicted benign. Another heterozygous transition (c.-248G/A; -predicted to affect translation efficiency- in the 5'-untranslated region of EDN3 (EDNRB ligand was detected in all affected individuals but not in healthy carriers of the EDNRB mutation. Also, a de novo CNVs encompassing DACH1 was identified in the patient with heterochromia iridum and HSCR Since the EDNRB and EDN3 variants only coexist in affected individuals, HSCR could be due to the joint effect of mutations in genes of the same pathway. Iris heterochromia could be due to an independent genetic event and would account for the additional phenotype within the family.
Cui, Long; Wong, Emily Hoi-Man; Cheng, Guo; Firmato de Almeida, Manoel; So, Man-Ting; Sham, Pak-Chung; Cherny, Stacey S; Tam, Paul Kwong-Hang; Garcia-Barceló, Maria-Mercè
2013-01-01
We present the genetic analyses conducted on a three-generation family (14 individuals) with three members affected with isolated-Hirschsprung disease (HSCR) and one with HSCR and heterochromia iridum (syndromic-HSCR), a phenotype reminiscent of Waardenburg-Shah syndrome (WS4). WS4 is characterized by pigmentary abnormalities of the skin, eyes and/or hair, sensorineural deafness and HSCR. None of the members had sensorineural deafness. The family was screened for copy number variations (CNVs) using Illumina-HumanOmni2.5-Beadchip and for coding sequence mutations in WS4 genes (EDN3, EDNRB, or SOX10) and in the main HSCR gene (RET). Confocal microscopy and immunoblotting were used to assess the functional impact of the mutations. A heterozygous A/G transition in EDNRB was identified in 4 affected and 3 unaffected individuals. While in EDNRB isoforms 1 and 2 (cellular receptor) the transition results in the abolishment of translation initiation (M1V), in isoform 3 (only in the cytosol) the replacement occurs at Met91 (M91V) and is predicted benign. Another heterozygous transition (c.-248G/A; -predicted to affect translation efficiency-) in the 5'-untranslated region of EDN3 (EDNRB ligand) was detected in all affected individuals but not in healthy carriers of the EDNRB mutation. Also, a de novo CNVs encompassing DACH1 was identified in the patient with heterochromia iridum and HSCR Since the EDNRB and EDN3 variants only coexist in affected individuals, HSCR could be due to the joint effect of mutations in genes of the same pathway. Iris heterochromia could be due to an independent genetic event and would account for the additional phenotype within the family. PMID:23840513
Analyses of steam generator collector rupture for WWER-1000 using Relap5 code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The paper presents some of the results of analyses of an accident with a LOCA from the primary to the secondary side of a WWER-1000/320 unit. The objective of the analyses is to estimate the primary coolant to the atmosphere, to point out the necessity of a well defined operator strategy for this type of accident as well as to evaluate the possibility to diagnose the accident and to minimize the radiological impact on the environment
Analyses of steam generator collector rupture for WWER-1000 using Relap5 code
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Balabanov, E.; Ivanova, A. [Energoproekt, Sofia (Bulgaria)
1995-12-31
The paper presents some of the results of analyses of an accident with a LOCA from the primary to the secondary side of a WWER-1000/320 unit. The objective of the analyses is to estimate the primary coolant to the atmosphere, to point out the necessity of a well defined operator strategy for this type of accident as well as to evaluate the possibility to diagnose the accident and to minimize the radiological impact on the environment.
Quantum, classical and semiclassical analyses of photon statistics in harmonic generation
Bajer, J; Bajer, Jiri; Miranowicz, Adam
2001-01-01
In this review, we compare different descriptions of photon-number statistics in harmonic generation processes within quantum, classical and semiclassical approaches. First, we study the exact quantum evolution of the harmonic generation by applying numerical methods including those of Hamiltonian diagonalization and global characteristics. We show explicitly that the harmonic generations can indeed serve as a source of nonclassical light. Then, we demonstrate that the quasi-stationary sub-Poissonian light can be generated in these quantum processes under conditions corresponding to the so-called no-energy-transfer regime known in classical nonlinear optics. By applying method of classical trajectories, we demonstrate that the analytical predictions of the Fano factors are in good agreement with the quantum results. On comparing second and higher harmonic generations in the no-energy-transfer regime, we show that the highest noise reduction is achieved in third-harmonic generation with the Fano-factor of the ...
Yongkul Won; Hsiao, Frank S.T.; Doo Yong Yang
2008-01-01
Using timeseries and panel data from 1981 to 2005, this paper examines the Granger causality relations between GDP, exports, and FDI among the three first generation Asian newly industrializing economies (ANIEs) : Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the four second generation Asian newly industrializing economies (ANIEs) : Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand, in addition to China. We first show the difference between the first and second generation ANIEs in terms of real GDP per capita, trade s...
Analysing humanly generated random number sequences: A pattern-based approach
Gravenor, M B; Schulz, M A; Schmalbach, B; Brugger, P; Witt, K.
2012-01-01
In a random number generation task, participants are asked to generate a random sequence of numbers, most typically the digits 1 to 9. Such number sequences are not mathematically random, and both extent and type of bias allow one to characterize the brain's “internal random number generator”. We assume that certain patterns and their variations will frequently occur in humanly generated random number sequences. Thus, we introduce a pattern-based analysis of random number sequences. Twenty he...
Analysing Humanly Generated Random Number Sequences: A Pattern-Based Approach
Schulz, Marc-André; Schmalbach, Barbara; Brugger, Peter; Witt, Karsten
2012-01-01
In a random number generation task, participants are asked to generate a random sequence of numbers, most typically the digits 1 to 9. Such number sequences are not mathematically random, and both extent and type of bias allow one to characterize the brain's “internal random number generator”. We assume that certain patterns and their variations will frequently occur in humanly generated random number sequences. Thus, we introduce a pattern-based analysis of random number sequences. Twenty he...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
M. de la Torre Juárez
2011-03-01
Full Text Available Means, standard deviations, homogeneity parameters used in models based on their ratio, and the probability distribution functions (PDFs of cloud properties from the MODerate resolution Infrared Spectrometer (MODIS are estimated globally as function of averaging scale varying from 5 to 500 km. The properties – cloud fraction, droplet effective radius, and liquid water path – all matter for cloud-climate uncertainty quantification and reduction efforts. Global means and standard deviations are confirmed to change with scale. For the range of scales considered, global means vary only within 3% for cloud fraction, 7% for liquid water path, and 0.2% for cloud particle effective radius. These scale dependences contribute to the uncertainties in their global budgets. Scale dependence for standard deviations and generalized flatness are compared to predictions for turbulent systems. Analytical expressions are identified that fit best to each observed PDF. While the best analytical PDF fit to each variable differs, all PDFs are well described by log-normal PDFs when the mean is normalized by the standard deviation inside each averaging domain. Importantly, log-normal distributions yield significantly better fits to the observations than gaussians at all scales. This suggests a possible approach for both sub-grid and unified stochastic modeling of these variables at all scales. The results also highlight the need to establish an adequate spatial resolution for two-stream radiative studies of cloud-climate interactions.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Romanovsky, G.; Xydis, G.; Mutale, J.
2011-01-01
While there are presently different options for renewable and distributed generation (RES/DG) to participate in the UK electricity market, none of the market options is specifically tailored for such types of generation and in particular, the smaller (up to 5 MW) RES/DG. This is because the UK ha...
Gudder, Stanley P
2014-01-01
Quantum probability is a subtle blend of quantum mechanics and classical probability theory. Its important ideas can be traced to the pioneering work of Richard Feynman in his path integral formalism.Only recently have the concept and ideas of quantum probability been presented in a rigorous axiomatic framework, and this book provides a coherent and comprehensive exposition of this approach. It gives a unified treatment of operational statistics, generalized measure theory and the path integral formalism that can only be found in scattered research articles.The first two chapters survey the ne
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Asmussen, Søren; Albrecher, Hansjörg
, extensions of the classical compound Poisson model to allow for reserve-dependent premiums, Markov-modulation, periodicity, change of measure techniques, phase-type distributions as a computational vehicle and the connection to other applied probability areas, like queueing theory. In this substantially......The book gives a comprehensive treatment of the classical and modern ruin probability theory. Some of the topics are Lundberg's inequality, the Cramér-Lundberg approximation, exact solutions, other approximations (e.g., for heavy-tailed claim size distributions), finite horizon ruin probabilities...... updated and extended second version, new topics include stochastic control, fluctuation theory for Levy processes, Gerber–Shiu functions and dependence....
Scale/Analytical Analyses of Freezing and Convective Melting with Internal Heat Generation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Ali S. Siahpush; John Crepeau; Piyush Sabharwall
2013-07-01
Using a scale/analytical analysis approach, we model phase change (melting) for pure materials which generate constant internal heat generation for small Stefan numbers (approximately one). The analysis considers conduction in the solid phase and natural convection, driven by internal heat generation, in the liquid regime. The model is applied for a constant surface temperature boundary condition where the melting temperature is greater than the surface temperature in a cylindrical geometry. The analysis also consider constant heat flux (in a cylindrical geometry).We show the time scales in which conduction and convection heat transfer dominate.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Frick, S. [Institut fuer Energetik und Umwelt gGmbH, Leipzig (Germany); Huenges, E [GeoForschungsZentrum (GFZ), Potsdam (Germany); Jung, R. [Institut fuer Geowissenschaftliche Gemeinschaftsaufgaben (GGA), Hannover (Germany); Kaltschmitt, M. [Institut fuer Energetik und Umwelt gGmbH, Leipzig (Germany); Technische Univ. Hamburg-Harburg, Hamburg (DE). Inst. fuer Umwelttechnik und Energiewirtschaft (IUE)
2007-07-01
Geothermal energy is due to its existing large resources in Germany an option which can note-worthy contribute to the future energy provision. The amendment of the EEG law (law on the use of renewables) therefore draws much more interest to geothermal electricity generation. Against this background, the objective of this article is to identify the main cost drivers and risks of a geothermal power and heat generation under the geological conditions in Germany and derives the resultant recommendations. (orig.)
Analyses on the Ionization Instability of Non-Equilibrium Seeded Plasma in an MHD Generator
Le, Chi Kien
2016-06-01
Recently, closed cycle magnetohydrodynamic power generation system research has been focused on improving the isentropic efficiency and the enthalpy extraction ratio. By reducing the cross-section area ratio of the disk magnetohydrodynamic generator, it is believed that a high isentropic efficiency can be achieved with the same enthalpy extraction. In this study, the result relating to a plasma state which takes into account the ionization instability of non-equilibrium seeded plasma is added to the theoretical prediction of the relationship between enthalpy extraction and isentropic efficiency. As a result, the electron temperature which reaches the seed complete ionization state without the growth of ionization instability can be realized at a relatively high seed fraction condition. However, the upper limit of the power generation performance is suggested to remain lower than the value expected in the low seed fraction condition. It is also suggested that a higher power generation performance may be obtained by implementing the electron temperature range which reaches the seed complete ionization state at a low seed fraction.
Techasrivichien, Teeranee; Darawuttimaprakorn, Niphon; Punpuing, Sureeporn; Musumari, Patou Masika; Lukhele, Bhekumusa Wellington; El-Saaidi, Christina; Suguimoto, S Pilar; Feldman, Mitchell D; Ono-Kihara, Masako; Kihara, Masahiro
2016-02-01
Thailand has undergone rapid modernization with implications for changes in sexual norms. We investigated sexual behavior and attitudes across generations and gender among a probability sample of the general population of Nonthaburi province located near Bangkok in 2012. A tablet-based survey was performed among 2,138 men and women aged 15-59 years identified through a three-stage, stratified, probability proportional to size, clustered sampling. Descriptive statistical analysis was carried out accounting for the effects of multistage sampling. Relationship of age and gender to sexual behavior and attitudes was analyzed by bivariate analysis followed by multivariate logistic regression analysis to adjust for possible confounding. Patterns of sexual behavior and attitudes varied substantially across generations and gender. We found strong evidence for a decline in the age of sexual initiation, a shift in the type of the first sexual partner, and a greater rate of acceptance of adolescent premarital sex among younger generations. The study highlighted profound changes among young women as evidenced by a higher number of lifetime sexual partners as compared to older women. In contrast to the significant gender gap in older generations, sexual profiles of Thai young women have evolved to resemble those of young men with attitudes gradually converging to similar sexual standards. Our data suggest that higher education, being never-married, and an urban lifestyle may have been associated with these changes. Our study found that Thai sexual norms are changing dramatically. It is vital to continue monitoring such changes, considering the potential impact on the HIV/STIs epidemic and unintended pregnancies. PMID:25403321
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches. (paper)
Gloger, Oliver; Tönnies, Klaus; Mensel, Birger; Völzke, Henry
2015-11-01
In epidemiological studies as well as in clinical practice the amount of produced medical image data strongly increased in the last decade. In this context organ segmentation in MR volume data gained increasing attention for medical applications. Especially in large-scale population-based studies organ volumetry is highly relevant requiring exact organ segmentation. Since manual segmentation is time-consuming and prone to reader variability, large-scale studies need automatized methods to perform organ segmentation. Fully automatic organ segmentation in native MR image data has proven to be a very challenging task. Imaging artifacts as well as inter- and intrasubject MR-intensity differences complicate the application of supervised learning strategies. Thus, we propose a modularized framework of a two-stepped probabilistic approach that generates subject-specific probability maps for renal parenchyma tissue, which are refined subsequently by using several, extended segmentation strategies. We present a three class-based support vector machine recognition system that incorporates Fourier descriptors as shape features to recognize and segment characteristic parenchyma parts. Probabilistic methods use the segmented characteristic parenchyma parts to generate high quality subject-specific parenchyma probability maps. Several refinement strategies including a final shape-based 3D level set segmentation technique are used in subsequent processing modules to segment renal parenchyma. Furthermore, our framework recognizes and excludes renal cysts from parenchymal volume, which is important to analyze renal functions. Volume errors and Dice coefficients show that our presented framework outperforms existing approaches.
Analysing the statistics of group constants generated by Serpent 2 Monte Carlo code
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
An important topic in Monte Carlo neutron transport calculations is to verify that the statistics of the calculated estimates are correct. Undersampling, non-converged fission source distribution and inter-cycle correlations may result in inaccurate results. In this paper, we study the effect of the number of neutron histories on the distributions of homogenized group constants and assembly discontinuity factors generated using Serpent 2 Monte Carlo code. We apply two normality tests and a so-called “drift-in-mean” test to the batch-wise distributions of selected parameters generated for two assembly types taken from the MIT BEAVRS benchmark. The results imply that in the tested cases the batch-wise estimates of the studied group constants can be regarded as normally distributed. We also show that undersampling is an issue with the calculated assembly discontinuity factors when the number of neutron histories is small. (author)
Effects of cross sections tables generation and optimization on rod ejection transient analyses
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Highlights: • Different cross-section libraries are applied to a rod ejection transient benchmark. • Effects of the optimization of the library grid-point distribution are assessed. • Effects of the library generation are assessed by comparison with other solutions. • Interpolation errors contribute to neutronics uncertainties in modeling transients. - Abstract: Best estimate analysis of rod ejection transients requires 3D kinetics core simulators. If they use cross sections libraries compiled in multidimensional tables, interpolation errors – originated when the core simulator computes the cross sections from the table values – are a source of uncertainty in k-effective calculations that should be accounted for. Those errors depend on the grid covering the domain of state variables and can be easily reduced, in contrast with other sources of uncertainties such as the ones due to nuclear data, by choosing an optimized grid distribution. The present paper assesses the impact of the grid structure on a PWR rod ejection transient analysis using the coupled neutron-kinetics/thermal-hydraulics COBAYA3/COBRA-TF system. For this purpose, the OECD/NEA PWR MOX/UO2 core transient benchmark has been chosen, as material compositions and geometries are available, allowing the use of lattice codes to generate libraries with different grid structures. Since a complete nodal cross-section library is also provided as part of the benchmark specifications, the effects of the library generation on transient behavior are also analyzed. Results showed large discrepancies when using the benchmark library and own-generated libraries when compared with benchmark participants’ solutions. The origin of the discrepancies was found to lie in the nodal cross sections provided in the benchmark
Energetic and Exergetic Analyses of a Direct Steam Generation Solar Thermal Power Plant in Cyprus
Hamidi, Armita
2012-01-01
ABSTRACT: In recent decades, the threat of climate change and other environmental impacts of fossil fuels have reinforced interests in alternative and renewable energy sources for producing electricity. In this regard, solar thermal energy can be utilized in existing power generation plants as replacement for the heat produced by means of fossil fuels. The objective of this study is to investigate the energetic and exergetic feasibility of utilizing a solar thermal power plant in Cyprus. The...
Analysing of the power generation system%浅析汽车发电机
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
牟亮
2016-01-01
简单介绍了发电系统结构和发电系统各组成部分的原理。解决了在看整车电气原理图时候只能看到一个发电系统符号，而看不懂里面的组成与原理的问题。在以后的研究工作中，提供有用的关于发电系统方面的技术资料。%This article simply introduces the structure of the power generation system and the principle of the power generation system. This paper solved the problem that when we see vehicle electrical principle diagram we can only see a symbolic power generation systems and don't understand the inside composition and principle. The article provides useful technical information on power systems for employees of the company in the later work.
Comparative Analyses on OPR1000 Steam Generator Tube Rupture Event Emergency Operational Guideline
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Sang Won; Bae, Yeon Kyoung; Kim, Hyeong Teak [Korea Hydro and Nuclear Power Co., Ltd., Taejon (Korea, Republic of)
2006-07-01
The Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) event is one of the important scenarios in respect to the radiation release to the environment. When the SGTR occurs, containment integrity is not effective because of the direct bypass of containment via the ruptured steam generator to the MSSV and MSADV. To prevent this path, the Emergency Operational Guideline of OPR1000 indicates the use of Turbine Bypass Valves (TBVs) as an effective means to depressurize the main steam line and prevent the lifting of MSSV. However, the TBVs are not operable when the offsite power is not available (LOOP). In this situation, the RCS cool-down is achieved by opening the both intact and ruptured SG MSADV. But this action causes the large amount of radiation release to the environment. To minimize the radiation release to the environment, KSNP EOG adopts the improved strategy when the SGTR concurrently with LOOP is occurred. However, these procedures show some duplicated procedure and branch line that might confusing the operator for optimal recovery action. So, in this paper, the comparative analysis on SGTR and SGTR with LOOP is performed and optimized procedure is proposed.
Comparative Analyses on OPR1000 Steam Generator Tube Rupture Event Emergency Operational Guideline
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The Steam Generator Tube Rupture (SGTR) event is one of the important scenarios in respect to the radiation release to the environment. When the SGTR occurs, containment integrity is not effective because of the direct bypass of containment via the ruptured steam generator to the MSSV and MSADV. To prevent this path, the Emergency Operational Guideline of OPR1000 indicates the use of Turbine Bypass Valves (TBVs) as an effective means to depressurize the main steam line and prevent the lifting of MSSV. However, the TBVs are not operable when the offsite power is not available (LOOP). In this situation, the RCS cool-down is achieved by opening the both intact and ruptured SG MSADV. But this action causes the large amount of radiation release to the environment. To minimize the radiation release to the environment, KSNP EOG adopts the improved strategy when the SGTR concurrently with LOOP is occurred. However, these procedures show some duplicated procedure and branch line that might confusing the operator for optimal recovery action. So, in this paper, the comparative analysis on SGTR and SGTR with LOOP is performed and optimized procedure is proposed
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper suggests that inexorable changes in the society are presenting both challenges and a rich selection of technologies for responding to these challenges. The citizen is more demanding of environmental and personal protection, and of information. Simultaneously, the commercial and government information technologies markets are providing new technologies like commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) software, common datasets, ''open'' GIS, recordable CD-ROM, and the World Wide Web. Thus one has the raw ingredients for creating new techniques and tools for spatial analysis, and these tools can support participative study and decision-making. By carrying out a strategy of thorough and demonstrably correct science, design, and development, can move forward into a new generation of participative risk assessment and routing for radioactive and hazardous materials
Thermodynamic analyses of a biomass-coal co-gasification power generation system.
Yan, Linbo; Yue, Guangxi; He, Boshu
2016-04-01
A novel chemical looping power generation system is presented based on the biomass-coal co-gasification with steam. The effects of different key operation parameters including biomass mass fraction (Rb), steam to carbon mole ratio (Rsc), gasification temperature (Tg) and iron to fuel mole ratio (Rif) on the system performances like energy efficiency (ηe), total energy efficiency (ηte), exergy efficiency (ηex), total exergy efficiency (ηtex) and carbon capture rate (ηcc) are analyzed. A benchmark condition is set, under which ηte, ηtex and ηcc are found to be 39.9%, 37.6% and 96.0%, respectively. Furthermore, detailed energy Sankey diagram and exergy Grassmann diagram are drawn for the entire system operating under the benchmark condition. The energy and exergy efficiencies of the units composing the system are also predicted. PMID:26826573
Falk, Jessica J; Laib Sampaio, Kerstin; Stegmann, Cora; Lieber, Diana; Kropff, Barbara; Mach, Michael; Sinzger, Christian
2016-09-01
For many questions in human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) research, assays are desired that allow robust and fast quantification of infection efficiencies under high-throughput conditions. The secreted Gaussia luciferase has been demonstrated as a suitable reporter in the context of a fibroblast-adapted HCMV strain, which however is greatly restricted in the number of cell types to which it can be applied. We inserted the Gaussia luciferase expression cassette into the BAC-cloned virus strain TB40-BAC4, which displays the natural broad cell tropism of HCMV and hence allows application to screening approaches in a variety of cell types including fibroblasts, epithelial, and endothelial cells. Here, we applied the reporter virus TB40-BAC4-IE-GLuc to identify mouse hybridoma clones that preferentially neutralize infection of endothelial cells. In addition, as the Gaussia luciferase is secreted into culture supernatants from infected cells it allows kinetic analyses in living cultures. This can speed up and facilitate phenotypic characterization of BAC-cloned mutants. For example, we analyzed a UL74 stop-mutant of TB40-BAC4-IE-GLuc immediately after reconstitution in transfected cultures and found the increase of luciferase delayed and reduced as compared to wild type. Phenotypic monitoring directly in transfected cultures can minimize the risk of compensating mutations that might occur with extended passaging. PMID:27326666
Software tool for analysing the family shopping basket without candidate generation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roberto Carlos Naranjo Cuervo
2010-05-01
Full Text Available Tools leading to useful knowledge being obtained for supporting marketing decisions being taken are currently needed in the e-commerce environment. A process is needed for this which uses a series of techniques for data-processing; data-mining is one such technique enabling automatic information discovery. This work presents the association rules as a suitable technique for dis-covering how customers buy from a company offering business to consumer (B2C e-business, aimed at supporting decision-ma-king in supplying its customers or capturing new ones. Many algorithms such as A priori, DHP, Partition, FP-Growth and Eclat are available for implementing association rules; the following criteria were defined for selecting the appropriate algorithm: database insert, computational cost, performance and execution time. The development of a software tool is also presented which involved the CRISP-DM approach; this software tool was formed by the following four sub-modules: data pre-processing, data-mining, re-sults analysis and results application. The application design used three-layer architecture: presentation logic, business logic and service logic. Data warehouse design and algorithm design were included in developing this data-mining software tool. It was tested by using a FoodMart company database; the tests included performance, functionality and results’ validity, thereby allo-wing association rules to be found. The results led to concluding that using association rules as a data mining technique facilita-tes analysing volumes of information for B2C e-business services which represents a competitive advantage for those companies using Internet as their sales’ media.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A severe accident has inherently significant uncertainties due to the complex phenomena and wide range of conditions. Because of its high temperature and pressure, performing experimental validation and practical application are extremely difficult. With these difficulties, there has been few experimental researches performed and there is no plant-specific experimental data. Instead, computer codes have been developed to simulate the accident and have been used conservative assumptions and margins. This study is an effort to reduce the uncertainty in the probabilistic safety assessment and produce a realistic and physical-based failure probability. The methodology was developed and applied to the OPR1000. The creep rupture failure probabilities of reactor coolant system (RCS) components were evaluated under a station blackout severe accident with all powers lost and no recovery of steam generator auxiliary feed-water. The MELCOR 1.8.6 code was used to obtain the plant-specific pressure and temperature history of each part of the RCS and the creep rupture failure times were calculated by the rate-dependent creep rupture model with the plant-specific data. (author)
Sun, Jingxuan
2012-01-01
Sun, Jingxuan 2012. Analysing the Risks and Challenges of the Pad Device as an Education Tool and Its Influence on Generation Y: Bachelor’s Thesis. Kemi-Tornio University of Applied Sciences. Business and Culture. Pages 68. Appendices 2. The objective of this research was to explore the use of the pad device as an education tool. Furthermore, the research work also intended to study the impact of the pad device among young students. The advantages of using the pad devices instead of compu...
Tai, Meng Wei; Chong, Zhen Feng; Asif, Muhammad Khan; Rahmat, Rabiah A; Nambiar, Phrabhakaran
2016-09-01
This study was to compare the suitability and precision of xerographic and computer-assisted methods for bite mark investigations. Eleven subjects were asked to bite on their forearm and the bite marks were photographically recorded. Alginate impressions of the subjects' dentition were taken and their casts were made using dental stone. The overlays generated by xerographic method were obtained by photocopying the subjects' casts and the incisal edge outlines were then transferred on a transparent sheet. The bite mark images were imported into Adobe Photoshop® software and printed to life-size. The bite mark analyses using xerographically generated overlays were done by comparing an overlay to the corresponding printed bite mark images manually. In computer-assisted method, the subjects' casts were scanned into Adobe Photoshop®. The bite mark analyses using computer-assisted overlay generation were done by matching an overlay and the corresponding bite mark images digitally using Adobe Photoshop®. Another comparison method was superimposing the cast images with corresponding bite mark images employing the Adobe Photoshop® CS6 and GIF-Animator©. A score with a range of 0-3 was given during analysis to each precision-determining criterion and the score was increased with better matching. The Kruskal Wallis H test showed significant difference between the three sets of data (H=18.761, pcomputer-assisted animated-superimposition method was the most accurate, followed by the computer-assisted overlay generation and lastly the xerographic method. The superior precision contributed by digital method is discernible despite the human skin being a poor recording medium of bite marks. PMID:27591538
Nakagawa, Masaki; Togashi, Yuichi
2016-01-01
Cell activities primarily depend on chemical reactions, especially those mediated by enzymes, and this has led to these activities being modeled as catalytic reaction networks. Although deterministic ordinary differential equations of concentrations (rate equations) have been widely used for modeling purposes in the field of systems biology, it has been pointed out that these catalytic reaction networks may behave in a way that is qualitatively different from such deterministic representation when the number of molecules for certain chemical species in the system is small. Apart from this, representing these phenomena by simple binary (on/off) systems that omit the quantities would also not be feasible. As recent experiments have revealed the existence of rare chemical species in cells, the importance of being able to model potential small-number phenomena is being recognized. However, most preceding studies were based on numerical simulations, and theoretical frameworks to analyze these phenomena have not been sufficiently developed. Motivated by the small-number issue, this work aimed to develop an analytical framework for the chemical master equation describing the distributional behavior of catalytic reaction networks. For simplicity, we considered networks consisting of two-body catalytic reactions. We used the probability generating function method to obtain the steady-state solutions of the chemical master equation without specifying the parameters. We obtained the time evolution equations of the first- and second-order moments of concentrations, and the steady-state analytical solution of the chemical master equation under certain conditions. These results led to the rank conservation law, the connecting state to the winner-takes-all state, and analysis of 2-molecules M-species systems. A possible interpretation of the theoretical conclusion for actual biochemical pathways is also discussed. PMID:27047384
Todorovic Balint, Milena; Jelicic, Jelena; Mihaljevic, Biljana; Kostic, Jelena; Stanic, Bojana; Balint, Bela; Pejanovic, Nadja; Lucic, Bojana; Tosic, Natasa; Marjanovic, Irena; Stojiljkovic, Maja; Karan-Djurasevic, Teodora; Perisic, Ognjen; Rakocevic, Goran; Popovic, Milos; Raicevic, Sava; Bila, Jelena; Antic, Darko; Andjelic, Bosko; Pavlovic, Sonja
2016-01-01
The existence of a potential primary central nervous system lymphoma-specific genomic signature that differs from the systemic form of diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has been suggested, but is still controversial. We investigated 19 patients with primary DLBCL of central nervous system (DLBCL CNS) using the TruSeq Amplicon Cancer Panel (TSACP) for 48 cancer-related genes. Next generation sequencing (NGS) analyses have revealed that over 80% of potentially protein-changing mutations were located in eight genes (CTNNB1, PIK3CA, PTEN, ATM, KRAS, PTPN11, TP53 and JAK3), pointing to the potential role of these genes in lymphomagenesis. TP53 was the only gene harboring mutations in all 19 patients. In addition, the presence of mutated TP53 and ATM genes correlated with a higher total number of mutations in other analyzed genes. Furthermore, the presence of mutated ATM correlated with poorer event-free survival (EFS) (p = 0.036). The presence of the mutated SMO gene correlated with earlier disease relapse (p = 0.023), inferior event-free survival (p = 0.011) and overall survival (OS) (p = 0.017), while mutations in the PTEN gene were associated with inferior OS (p = 0.048). Our findings suggest that the TP53 and ATM genes could be involved in the molecular pathophysiology of primary DLBCL CNS, whereas mutations in the PTEN and SMO genes could affect survival regardless of the initial treatment approach. PMID:27164089
Todorovic Balint, Milena; Jelicic, Jelena; Mihaljevic, Biljana; Kostic, Jelena; Stanic, Bojana; Balint, Bela; Pejanovic, Nadja; Lucic, Bojana; Tosic, Natasa; Marjanovic, Irena; Stojiljkovic, Maja; Karan-Djurasevic, Teodora; Perisic, Ognjen; Rakocevic, Goran; Popovic, Milos; Raicevic, Sava; Bila, Jelena; Antic, Darko; Andjelic, Bosko; Pavlovic, Sonja
2016-01-01
The existence of a potential primary central nervous system lymphoma-specific genomic signature that differs from the systemic form of diffuse large B cell lymphoma (DLBCL) has been suggested, but is still controversial. We investigated 19 patients with primary DLBCL of central nervous system (DLBCL CNS) using the TruSeq Amplicon Cancer Panel (TSACP) for 48 cancer-related genes. Next generation sequencing (NGS) analyses have revealed that over 80% of potentially protein-changing mutations were located in eight genes (CTNNB1, PIK3CA, PTEN, ATM, KRAS, PTPN11, TP53 and JAK3), pointing to the potential role of these genes in lymphomagenesis. TP53 was the only gene harboring mutations in all 19 patients. In addition, the presence of mutated TP53 and ATM genes correlated with a higher total number of mutations in other analyzed genes. Furthermore, the presence of mutated ATM correlated with poorer event-free survival (EFS) (p = 0.036). The presence of the mutated SMO gene correlated with earlier disease relapse (p = 0.023), inferior event-free survival (p = 0.011) and overall survival (OS) (p = 0.017), while mutations in the PTEN gene were associated with inferior OS (p = 0.048). Our findings suggest that the TP53 and ATM genes could be involved in the molecular pathophysiology of primary DLBCL CNS, whereas mutations in the PTEN and SMO genes could affect survival regardless of the initial treatment approach. PMID:27164089
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Two LSTF experiments were conducted for OECD/NEA ROSA Project simulating PWR 0.5% cold leg small break LOCA. Steam generator (SG) secondary-side depressurization was performed by fully opening the relief valves at 10 minutes after a safety injection signal with or without non-condensable gas (air) inflow from accumulator tanks with total failure of high pressure injection system. Further assumptions were made to conduct enhanced SG depressurization by fully opening the safety valves when the primary pressure decreased to 2 MPa and no actuation of low pressure injection system, both to well observe natural circulation (NC) phenomena at low pressures. The primary depressurization rate decreased when non-condensable gas started to enter primary loops because of degradation in the condensation heat transfer in SG U-tubes, while two-phase flow NC has continued even after non-condensable gas inflow. Asymmetric NC behaviors appeared between two loops due probably to different number of forward flow SG U-tubes which would have been under influences of non-condensable gas. Post-test analyses by using JAEA-modified RELAP5/MOD3.2.1.2 code indicated that the code has remaining problems in propor prediction of the primary loop flow rate and SG U-tube liquid level behaviors especially after non-condensable gas inflow. The improvement of the condensation heat transfer model under non-condensable gas mixture condition and the SG U-tube model may be necessary for correct analysis of the LSTF SG depressurization transient. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brocke, Tobias
2012-07-01
Against the background of energy policy and climate policy decisions, the decentralized power generation has gained in importance in Germany. Previous research activities on this topic mostly concerned with technical, legal, environmental and economic issues as well as potential analyses for certain forms of power generation. In contrast, the contribution under consideration deals with the organizational structures and governance structures of the decentralized power generation at local and regional level. In particular, it concerns the question to what extent the decentralized power generation results in the formation of localized production connections. In addition, it is about the importance of institutional framework as well as the role of regulatory, political and civil society actors who are affected by the distributed power generation.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bijal A Parikh
Full Text Available The bacterial CRISPR-Cas9 system has been adapted for use as a genome editing tool. While several recent reports have indicated that successful genome editing of mice can be achieved, detailed phenotypic and molecular analyses of the mutant animals are limited. Following pronuclear micro-injection of fertilized eggs with either wild-type Cas9 or the nickase mutant (D10A and single or paired guide RNA (sgRNA for targeting of the tyrosinase (Tyr gene, we assessed genome editing in mice using rapid phenotypic readouts (eye and coat color. Mutant mice with insertions or deletions (indels in Tyr were efficiently generated without detectable off-target cleavage events. Gene correction of a single nucleotide by homologous recombination (HR could only occur when the sgRNA recognition sites in the donor DNA were modified. Gene repair did not occur if the donor DNA was not modified because Cas9 catalytic activity was completely inhibited. Our results indicate that allelic mosaicism can occur following -Cas9-mediated editing in mice and appears to correlate with sgRNA cleavage efficiency at the single-cell stage. We also show that larger than expected deletions may be overlooked based on the screening strategy employed. An unbiased analysis of all the deleted nucleotides in our experiments revealed that the highest frequencies of nucleotide deletions were clustered around the predicted Cas9 cleavage sites, with slightly broader distributions than expected. Finally, additional analysis of founder mice and their offspring indicate that their general health, fertility, and the transmission of genetic changes were not compromised. These results provide the foundation to interpret and predict the diverse outcomes following CRISPR-Cas9-mediated genome editing experiments in mice.
Interpretations of Negative Probabilities
Burgin, Mark
2010-01-01
In this paper, we give a frequency interpretation of negative probability, as well as of extended probability, demonstrating that to a great extent, these new types of probabilities, behave as conventional probabilities. Extended probability comprises both conventional probability and negative probability. The frequency interpretation of negative probabilities gives supportive evidence to the axiomatic system built in (Burgin, 2009; arXiv:0912.4767) for extended probability as it is demonstra...
Probability Aggregates in Probability Answer Set Programming
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
Probability answer set programming is a declarative programming that has been shown effective for representing and reasoning about a variety of probability reasoning tasks. However, the lack of probability aggregates, e.g. {\\em expected values}, in the language of disjunctive hybrid probability logic programs (DHPP) disallows the natural and concise representation of many interesting problems. In this paper, we extend DHPP to allow arbitrary probability aggregates. We introduce two types of p...
Maximum Probability Domains for Hubbard Models
Acke, Guillaume; Claeys, Pieter W; Van Raemdonck, Mario; Poelmans, Ward; Van Neck, Dimitri; Bultinck, Patrick
2015-01-01
The theory of Maximum Probability Domains (MPDs) is formulated for the Hubbard model in terms of projection operators and generating functions for both exact eigenstates as well as Slater determinants. A fast MPD analysis procedure is proposed, which is subsequently used to analyse numerical results for the Hubbard model. It is shown that the essential physics behind the considered Hubbard models can be exposed using MPDs. Furthermore, the MPDs appear to be in line with what is expected from Valence Bond Theory-based knowledge.
Oguro, Kazumasa; SHIMASAWA Manabu; TAKAHATA Junichiro
2010-01-01
We constructed an overlapping-generations model with endogenous fertility to analyze the effect of child benefits and pensions on welfare for current and future generations. The following results were obtained. First, when financial sustainability is not taken into account, the best policy to improve the welfare of future generations is to increase child benefits, financed by issuing government debt. On the other hand, when financial sustainability is taken into account, the best policy is to...
Sirca, Simon
2016-01-01
This book is designed as a practical and intuitive introduction to probability, statistics and random quantities for physicists. The book aims at getting to the main points by a clear, hands-on exposition supported by well-illustrated and worked-out examples. A strong focus on applications in physics and other natural sciences is maintained throughout. In addition to basic concepts of random variables, distributions, expected values and statistics, the book discusses the notions of entropy, Markov processes, and fundamentals of random number generation and Monte-Carlo methods.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A random pulse and probability generator (RPG) has been developed utilizing the detection technique of alpha-particles as the random signal source. The collection technique for 222Rn emanated from natural uranium ore was examined for preparing highly pure 210Pb-210Po as an alpha source for RPG. The yield with a trap refrigerated by liquid nitrogen was observed to be above 99% for 222Rn collection. (author)
Briggs, William M
2012-01-01
The probability leakage of model M with respect to evidence E is defined. Probability leakage is a kind of model error. It occurs when M implies that events $y$, which are impossible given E, have positive probability. Leakage does not imply model falsification. Models with probability leakage cannot be calibrated empirically. Regression models, which are ubiquitous in statistical practice, often evince probability leakage.
Cole, David A; Nolen-Hoeksema, Susan; Girgus, Joan; Paul, Gilda
2006-02-01
In 2 longitudinal studies of negative life events and depressive symptoms in adolescents (N = 708) and in children (N = 508), latent trait-state-error structural equation models tested both the stress generation hypothesis and the stress exposure hypothesis. Results strongly suggested that self-reports of depressive symptoms reflect the influence of a perfectly stable trait factor as well as a less stable state factor. Support emerged for both the stress generation model and the stress exposure model. When the state depression factor was modeled as predicting stress, support for the stress generation model appeared to increase with age. When the trait depression factor was modeled as the predictor of stress, support for the stress generation model did not vary with the child's age. In both models, support for the stress exposure remained relatively constant across age. PMID:16492094
Koo, Reginald; Jones, Martin L.
2011-01-01
Quite a number of interesting problems in probability feature an event with probability equal to 1/e. This article discusses three such problems and attempts to explain why this probability occurs with such frequency.
Goldberg, Samuel
2013-01-01
Excellent basic text covers set theory, probability theory for finite sample spaces, binomial theorem, probability distributions, means, standard deviations, probability function of binomial distribution, more. Includes 360 problems with answers for half.
Accidents, probabilities and consequences
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Following brief discussion of the safety of wind-driven power plants and solar power plants, some aspects of the safety of fast breeder and thermonuclear power plants are presented. It is pointed out that no safety evaluation of breeders comparable to the Rasmussen investigation has been carried out and that discussion of the safety aspects of thermonuclear power is only just begun. Finally, as an illustration of the varying interpretations of risk and safety analyses, four examples are given of predicted probabilities and consequences in Copenhagen of the maximum credible accident at the Barsebaeck plant, under the most unfavourable meterological conditions. These are made by the Environment Commission, Risoe Research Establishment, REO (a pro-nuclear group) and OOA (an anti-nuclear group), and vary by a factor of over 1000. (JIW)
Contributions to quantum probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)
Contributions to quantum probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fritz, Tobias
2010-06-25
finite set can occur as the outcome distribution of a quantum-mechanical von Neumann measurement with postselection, given that the scalar product between the initial and the final state is known as well as the success probability of the postselection. An intermediate von Neumann measurement can enhance transition probabilities between states such that the error probability shrinks by a factor of up to 2. Chapter 4: A presentation of the category of stochastic matrices. This chapter gives generators and relations for the strict monoidal category of probabilistic maps on finite cardinals (i.e., stochastic matrices). Chapter 5: Convex Spaces: Definition and Examples. We try to promote convex spaces as an abstract concept of convexity which was introduced by Stone as ''barycentric calculus''. A convex space is a set where one can take convex combinations in a consistent way. By identifying the corresponding Lawvere theory as the category from chapter 4 and using the results obtained there, we give a different proof of a result of Swirszcz which shows that convex spaces can be identified with algebras of a finitary version of the Giry monad. After giving an extensive list of examples of convex sets as they appear throughout mathematics and theoretical physics, we note that there also exist convex spaces that cannot be embedded into a vector space: semilattices are a class of examples of purely combinatorial type. In an information-theoretic interpretation, convex subsets of vector spaces are probabilistic, while semilattices are possibilistic. Convex spaces unify these two concepts. (orig.)
Miyawaki, Shinjiro; Tawhai, Merryn H.; Hoffman, Eric A.; Lin, Ching-Long
2014-11-01
The authors have developed a method to automatically generate non-uniform CFD mesh for image-based human airway models. The sizes of generated tetrahedral elements vary in both radial and longitudinal directions to account for boundary layer and multiscale nature of pulmonary airflow. The proposed method takes advantage of our previously developed centerline-based geometry reconstruction method. In order to generate the mesh branch by branch in parallel, we used the open-source programs Gmsh and TetGen for surface and volume meshes, respectively. Both programs can specify element sizes by means of background mesh. The size of an arbitrary element in the domain is a function of wall distance, element size on the wall, and element size at the center of airway lumen. The element sizes on the wall are computed based on local flow rate and airway diameter. The total number of elements in the non-uniform mesh (10 M) was about half of that in the uniform mesh, although the computational time for the non-uniform mesh was about twice longer (170 min). The proposed method generates CFD meshes with fine elements near the wall and smooth variation of element size in longitudinal direction, which are required, e.g., for simulations with high flow rate. NIH Grants R01-HL094315, U01-HL114494, and S10-RR022421. Computer time provided by XSEDE.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This paper aims to quantify the influence that probability distribution selected to fit wind speed data has on the estimation of the annual mean energy production of wind turbines. To perform this task, a comparative analysis between the well-known two parameter wind speed Weibull distribution and alternative mixture of finite distribution models (less simple but providing better fits in many locations) is applied, in order to contrast simplicity versus accuracy. Data fitted from a set of weather stations located at the Canary Islands and a representative sample of commercial wind turbines are taken into account to carry out this analysis. The calculations provide a wide variety of numerical results but, as a general conclusion, the analysis evidences that any improvement in wind data fits given by the use of a mixture of finite distributions, instead of the standard Weibull distribution, is partially or even totally lost as the annual mean energy production is worked out, practically regardless the weather station, the wind speed distribution model, the turbine size or the turbine concept
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
To weld steam-generating tubes of EM12 to a tubesheet provided with boss of 2.25 Cr. 1 Mo, STEIN INDUSTRIE has developed a process of internal welding without filler metal. The characterization tests carried out on test assemblies have shown the excellent metallurgical quality of welding performed by this process. High-temperature strength tests showed a safety margin as compared with the results of the finite element calculations. The hypotheses made for these calculations which take into account the elastoviscoplatic properties of materials, and particularly the extension of the properties of 2.25 Cr. 1 Mo to the weld, can therefore be applied to steam-generator sizing calutations. (orig.)
Liu, Feng; Gong, Daping; Zhang, Qian; Wang, Dawei; Cui, Mengmeng; Zhang, Zhiguo; Liu, Guanshan; Wu, Jinxia; Wang, Yuanying
2015-03-01
Tobacco (Nicotiana tabacum L.) is an ideal model system for molecular biological and genetic studies. In this study, activation tagging was used to generate approximately 100,000 transgenic tobacco plants. Southern blot analysis indicated that there were 1.6 T-DNA inserts per line on average in our transformed population. The phenotypes observed include abnormalities in leaf and flower morphology, plant height, flowering time, branching, and fertility. Among 6,000 plants in the T0 generation, 57 displayed obvious phenotypes. Among 4,105 lines in the T1 generation, 311 displayed abnormal phenotypes. Fusion primer and nested integrated PCR was used to identify 963 independent genomic loci of T-DNA insertion sites in 1,257 T1 lines. The distribution of T-DNA insertions was non-uniform and correlated well with the predicted gene density along each chromosome. The insertions were biased toward genic regions and noncoding regions within 5 kb of a gene. Fifteen plants that showed the same phenotype as their parent with a dominant pattern in the T2 generation were chosen randomly to detect the expression levels of genes adjacent to the T-DNA integration sites by semi-quantitative RT-PCR. Fifteen candidate genes were identified. Activation was observed in 7 out of the 15 adjacent genes, including one that was located 13.1 kb away from the enhancer sequence. The activation-tagged population described in this paper will be a highly valuable resource for tobacco functional genomics research using both forward and reverse genetic approaches. PMID:25408504
Gutschow, Christian; The ATLAS collaboration
2016-01-01
The Monte Carlo setups used by ATLAS to model boson+jets and multi-boson processes in 13 TeV pp collisions are described. Comparisons between data and several events generators are provided for key kinematic distributions at 7 TeV, 8 TeV and 13 TeV. Issues associated with sample normalisation and the evaluation of systematic uncertainties are also discussed.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Buchmayr, B.; Cerjak, H.; Wakonig, H. (Technische Univ., Graz (Austria)); Kleemaier, R.; Nowotny, P. (SGP-VA Energie- und Umwelttechnik GmbH, Vienna (Austria))
1990-09-01
This paper introduces an expert system (ES) for prelocation damage analysis to steam generators. It has been developed in collaboration between Simmering-Graz-Pauker AG (SGP) and the Materials Information and Welding Technology Department of Graz Technical University. The paper indicates to power plant engineers the possibilities for the application of this kind of system and the basic features for realization of the project. (orig.).
Mavko, Borut; Prošek, Andrej
2015-01-01
The Krško nuclear power plant has undertaken a major modernization project. The objectives of the project are: long-term stabilization of the plant's operation, uprating of the net electrical power output, higher availability and enhanced safety of the plant. The modernization also requires a thorough safety re-avaluation and therefore new thermal hydraulic, mechanical and structural analysis. The thermal-hydraulic part of the safety analysis necessary for the steam generator replacement and ...
Technical and economic analyses of a hydrogen-fed gas turbine with steam injection and co-generation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Enel has been working on a hydrogen programme dealing with both hydrogen production and uses. The first phase deals with a hydrogen-fed, gas turbine-based co-generative cycle, in which steam injection in the gas turbine itself is adopted in order to couple high process efficiencies with very low nitrous oxide emissions. This paper presents the main results of the co-generative cycle thermodynamic analysis and focuses on the plant economic evaluations under different economic and regulatory scenarios. Results show that hydrogen can be used very effectively in this kind of plant, where electricity efficiency can reach 40% and global co-generation efficiencies can also exceed 90% in relatively small-scale power plants. However, the very high specific investment costs associated with small plants require promotion policies to be applied in order to allow profitable investments. In the future, this kind of plant could provide densely populated areas with electricity and heat with no additional side-effects on the environment. (author)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In this study, a small scale hybrid solar heating, chilling and power generation system, including parabolic trough solar collector with cavity receiver, a helical screw expander and silica gel-water adsorption chiller, etc., was proposed and extensively investigated. The system has the merits of effecting the power generation cycle at lower temperature level with solar energy more efficiently and can provide both thermal energy and power for remote off-grid regions. A case study was carried out to evaluate an annual energy and exergy efficiency of the system under the climate of northwestern region of China. It is found that both the main energy and exergy loss take place at the parabolic trough collector, amount to 36.2% and 70.4%, respectively. Also found is that the studied system can have a higher solar energy conversion efficiency than the conventional solar thermal power generation system alone. The energy efficiency can be increased to 58.0% from 10.2%, and the exergy efficiency can be increased to 15.2% from 12.5%. Moreover, the economical analysis in terms of cost and payback period (PP) has been carried out. The study reveals that the proposed system the PP of the proposed system is about 18 years under present energy price conditions. The sensitivity analysis shows that if the interest rate decreases to 3% or energy price increase by 50%, PP will be less than 10 years.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In this research, a vortex generator heat exchanger is used to recover exergy from the exhaust of an OM314 diesel engine. Twenty vortex generators with 30° angle of attack are used to increase the heat recovery as well as the low back pressure in the exhaust. The experiments are prepared for five engine loads (0, 20, 40, 60 and 80% of full load), two exhaust gases amount (50 and 100%) and four water mass flow rates (50, 40, 30 and 20 g/s). After a thermodynamical analysis on the obtained data, an optimization study based on Central Composite Design (CCD) is performed due to complex effect of engine loads and water mass flow rates on exergy recovery and irreversibility to reach the best operating condition. - Highlights: • A vortex generator heat exchanger is used for diesel exhaust heat recovery. • A thermodynamic analysis is performed for experimental data. • Exergy recovery, irreversibility are calculated in different exhaust gases amount. • Optimization study is performed using response surface method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In this study, a small scale hybrid solar heating, chilling and power generation system, including parabolic trough solar collector with cavity receiver, a helical screw expander and silica gel-water adsorption chiller, etc., was proposed and extensively investigated. The system has the merits of effecting the power generation cycle at lower temperature level with solar energy more efficiently and can provide both thermal energy and power for remote off-grid regions. A case study was carried out to evaluate an annual energy and exergy efficiency of the system under the climate of northwestern region of China. It is found that both the main energy and exergy loss take place at the parabolic trough collector, amount to 36.2% and 70.4%, respectively. Also found is that the studied system can have a higher solar energy conversion efficiency than the conventional solar thermal power generation system alone. The energy efficiency can be increased to 58.0% from 10.2%, and the exergy efficiency can be increased to 15.2% from 12.5%. Moreover, the economical analysis in terms of cost and payback period (PP) has been carried out. The study reveals that the proposed system the PP of the proposed system is about 18 years under present energy price conditions. The sensitivity analysis shows that if the interest rate decreases to 3% or energy price increase by 50%, PP will be less than 10 years. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Monniaux, D.
2009-06-15
Software operating critical systems (aircraft, nuclear power plants) should not fail - whereas most computerised systems of daily life (personal computer, ticket vending machines, cell phone) fail from time to time. This is not a simple engineering problem: it is known, since the works of Turing and Cook, that proving that programs work correctly is intrinsically hard. In order to solve this problem, one needs methods that are, at the same time, efficient (moderate costs in time and memory), safe (all possible failures should be found), and precise (few warnings about nonexistent failures). In order to reach a satisfactory compromise between these goals, one can research fields as diverse as formal logic, numerical analysis or 'classical' algorithmics. From 2002 to 2007 I participated in the development of the Astree static analyser. This suggested to me a number of side projects, both theoretical and practical (use of formal proof techniques, analysis of numerical filters...). More recently, I became interested in modular analysis of numerical property and in the applications to program analysis of constraint solving techniques (semi-definite programming, SAT and SAT modulo theory). (author)
Benci, Vieri; Horsten, Leon; Wenmackers, Sylvia
2011-01-01
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and zero- and unit-probability events pose no particular epistemological problems. We use a non-Archimedean field as the range of the probability function. As a result, the property of countable additivity in Kolmogorov's axiomatization o...
Probability and paternity testing.
Elston, R C
1986-01-01
A probability can be viewed as an estimate of a variable that is sometimes 1 and sometimes 0. To have validity, the probability must equal the expected value of that variable. To have utility, the average squared deviation of the probability from the value of that variable should be small. It is shown that probabilities of paternity calculated by the use of Bayes' theorem under appropriate assumptions are valid, but they can vary in utility. In particular, a recently proposed probability of p...
Logical Probability Preferences
Saad, Emad
2013-01-01
We present a unified logical framework for representing and reasoning about both probability quantitative and qualitative preferences in probability answer set programming, called probability answer set optimization programs. The proposed framework is vital to allow defining probability quantitative preferences over the possible outcomes of qualitative preferences. We show the application of probability answer set optimization programs to a variant of the well-known nurse restoring problem, c...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
To improve the performance of electrochemical devices such as batteries and fuel cells, it is essential to understand reaction hierarchies over wide temporal and spatial ranges. To this end, operando measurement techniques have been developed that enable analysis of the electrode/electrolyte interface of the reaction site, phase transitions of active materials, and macro reactions within real electrodes over various spatial and temporal scales. These analytic techniques pioneer a new way of performing kinetic analysis by introducing axes of space and time into reaction analyses, and are applicable to various types of electrochemical devices. Moreover, a magnesium rechargeable battery featuring the merits of high theoretical energy density, high safety, and easily acquirable raw materials was developed by employing these operando analytic techniques. (author)
Östblom, Göran; Ljunggren Söderman, Maria; Sjöström, Magnus
2010-01-01
Parallel to the efforts of the EU to achieve a significant and overall reduction of waste quantities within the EU, the Swedish parliament enacted an environmental quality objective stating that ‘the total quantity of waste must not increase …’ i.e. an eventual absolute decoupling of waste generation from GDP. The decoupling issue is ad-dressed, in the present paper, by assessing future waste quantities, for a number of economic scenarios of the Swedish economy to 2030 with alternative assump...
Uniqueness in ergodic decomposition of invariant probabilities
Zimmermann, Dieter
1992-01-01
We show that for any set of transition probabilities on a common measurable space and any invariant probability, there is at most one representing measure on the set of extremal, invariant probabilities with the $\\sigma$-algebra generated by the evaluations. The proof uses nonstandard analysis.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Roxana Yockteng
2013-12-01
Full Text Available Premise of the study: To study gene expression in plants, high-quality RNA must be extracted in quantities sufficient for subsequent cDNA library construction. Field-based collections are often limited in quantity and quality of tissue and are typically preserved in RNAlater. Obtaining sufficient and high-quality yield from variously preserved samples is essential to studies of comparative biology. We present a protocol for the extraction of high-quality RNA from even the most recalcitrant plant tissues. Methods and Results: Tissues from mosses, cycads, and angiosperm floral organs and leaves were preserved in RNAlater or frozen fresh at −80°C. Extractions were performed and quality was measured for yield and purity. Conclusions: This protocol results in the extraction of high-quality RNA from a variety of plant tissues representing vascular and nonvascular plants. RNA was used for cDNA synthesis to generate libraries for next-generation sequencing and for expression studies using quantitative PCR (qPCR and semiquantitative reverse transcription PCR (RT-PCR.
Agreeing Probability Measures for Comparative Probability Structures
Wakker, Peter
1981-01-01
It is proved that fine and tight comparative probability structures (where the set of events is assumed to be an algebra, not necessarily a $\\sigma$-algebra) have agreeing probability measures. Although this was often claimed in the literature, all proofs the author encountered are not valid for the general case, but only for $\\sigma$-algebras. Here the proof of Niiniluoto (1972) is supplemented. Furthermore an example is presented that reveals many misunderstandings in the literature. At the...
Hedesan, Georgiana D.
2014-01-01
This article discusses a Latin manuscript that can be found in the Jan Baptist Van Helmont (1579–1644) archives in Mechelen (Malines), Belgium. The manuscript bears no author and no title, and begins with the words ‘Exterior homo’, hence being referred by this provisional title in the analysis. Ecclesiastical prosecutors investigating Van Helmont for heresy in 1634 considered that it was written by him, but this was vehemently denied by the Flemish physician. The present article takes a first detailed look at the content of the treatise and ideas contained therein. It hence identifies the manuscript as belonging to a seventeenth-century physician influenced by the ideas of Theophrastus Paracelsus (1493–1541) and his interpreter Petrus Severinus (1542–1602), and containing a complex medical philosophy drawn on alchemical thought. Thus, the anonymous author presents a comprehensive view on the nature and structure of man, as well as an idiosyncratic theory of human generation. Following the analysis of the treatise, the article further compares it with the known works of J.B. Van Helmont, and finds that it is very similar to his ideas. Hence, the article concludes that it is ‘likely’ that the manuscript is indeed written by Van Helmont, although lack of direct evidence prevents certain attribution. PMID:25045180
Bassanezi, Renato B; Bergamin Filho, Armando; Amorim, Lilian; Gimenes-Fernandes, Nelson; Gottwald, Tim R; Bové, Joseph M
2003-04-01
grafted on Rangpur lime. Based on the symptoms of CSD and on its spatial and temporal patterns, our hypothesis is that CSD may be caused by a similar but undescribed pathogen such as a virus and probably vectored by insects such as aphids by similar spatial processes to those affecting CTV. PMID:18944366
Benci, Vieri; Wenmackers, Sylvia
2011-01-01
We propose an alternative approach to probability theory closely related to the framework of numerosity theory: non-Archimedean probability (NAP). In our approach, unlike in classical probability theory, all subsets of an infinite sample space are measurable and zero- and unit-probability events pose no particular epistemological problems. We use a non-Archimedean field as the range of the probability function. As a result, the property of countable additivity in Kolmogorov's axiomatization of probability is replaced by a different type of infinite additivity.
Elements of probability theory
Rumshiskii, L Z
1965-01-01
Elements of Probability Theory presents the methods of the theory of probability. This book is divided into seven chapters that discuss the general rule for the multiplication of probabilities, the fundamental properties of the subject matter, and the classical definition of probability. The introductory chapters deal with the functions of random variables; continuous random variables; numerical characteristics of probability distributions; center of the probability distribution of a random variable; definition of the law of large numbers; stability of the sample mean and the method of moments
Evaluating probability forecasts
Lai, Tze Leung; Shen, David Bo; 10.1214/11-AOS902
2012-01-01
Probability forecasts of events are routinely used in climate predictions, in forecasting default probabilities on bank loans or in estimating the probability of a patient's positive response to treatment. Scoring rules have long been used to assess the efficacy of the forecast probabilities after observing the occurrence, or nonoccurrence, of the predicted events. We develop herein a statistical theory for scoring rules and propose an alternative approach to the evaluation of probability forecasts. This approach uses loss functions relating the predicted to the actual probabilities of the events and applies martingale theory to exploit the temporal structure between the forecast and the subsequent occurrence or nonoccurrence of the event.
Estimating Small Probabilities for Langevin Dynamics
Aristoff, David
2012-01-01
The problem of estimating small transition probabilities for overdamped Langevin dynamics is considered. A simplification of Girsanov's formula is obtained in which the relationship between the infinitesimal generator of the underlying diffusion and the change of probability measure corresponding to a change in the potential energy is made explicit. From this formula an asymptotic expression for transition probability densities is derived. Separately the problem of estimating the probability ...
Cho, Namjin; Hwang, Byungjin; Yoon, Jung-ki; Park, Sangun; Lee, Joongoo; Seo, Han Na; Lee, Jeewon; Huh, Sunghoon; Chung, Jinsoo; Bang, Duhee
2015-01-01
Interpreting epistatic interactions is crucial for understanding evolutionary dynamics of complex genetic systems and unveiling structure and function of genetic pathways. Although high resolution mapping of en masse variant libraries renders molecular biologists to address genotype-phenotype relationships, long-read sequencing technology remains indispensable to assess functional relationship between mutations that lie far apart. Here, we introduce JigsawSeq for multiplexed sequence identification of pooled gene variant libraries by combining a codon-based molecular barcoding strategy and de novo assembly of short-read data. We first validate JigsawSeq on small sub-pools and observed high precision and recall at various experimental settings. With extensive simulations, we then apply JigsawSeq to large-scale gene variant libraries to show that our method can be reliably scaled using next-generation sequencing. JigsawSeq may serve as a rapid screening tool for functional genomics and offer the opportunity to explore evolutionary trajectories of protein variants. PMID:26387459
Cho, Namjin; Hwang, Byungjin; Yoon, Jung-ki; Park, Sangun; Lee, Joongoo; Seo, Han Na; Lee, Jeewon; Huh, Sunghoon; Chung, Jinsoo; Bang, Duhee
2015-01-01
Interpreting epistatic interactions is crucial for understanding evolutionary dynamics of complex genetic systems and unveiling structure and function of genetic pathways. Although high resolution mapping of en masse variant libraries renders molecular biologists to address genotype-phenotype relationships, long-read sequencing technology remains indispensable to assess functional relationship between mutations that lie far apart. Here, we introduce JigsawSeq for multiplexed sequence identification of pooled gene variant libraries by combining a codon-based molecular barcoding strategy and de novo assembly of short-read data. We first validate JigsawSeq on small sub-pools and observed high precision and recall at various experimental settings. With extensive simulations, we then apply JigsawSeq to large-scale gene variant libraries to show that our method can be reliably scaled using next-generation sequencing. JigsawSeq may serve as a rapid screening tool for functional genomics and offer the opportunity to explore evolutionary trajectories of protein variants. PMID:26387459
Der, Zoltan A.; Baumgardt, Douglas R.
1997-07-01
Machinery typically generates mechanical vibrations at multiple, harmonically related frequencies which arise from various mechanically coupled moving components of machines or characteristic nonlinearities in their operational loads. These mechanical vibrations propagate from their origin through the air as acoustic waves and through the earth as various types of seismic waves. Of the two modes of propagation the seismic mode of propagation is the more complicated since the same harmonic may propagate simultaneously in various wave types (compressional waves, shear waves and various surface wave types) with differing propagation vehicles. Moreover, air-to-ground coupling has been shown to occur in some cases. The consequence of this multi-mode propagation is that standing wave interference patterns are set up over the terrain surrounding the sources which complicates the frequency-wavenumber analysis and identification of the signals. Since the set of harmonics omitted from a given type of machinery tend to be phase- coupled, higher order spectral analysis offers means for detecting and separating such coupled sets and reducing much of the Gaussian background noise and uncoupled sinusoidal noise components. In this paper we utilize sections through bispectral estimates obtained from continuous signals from various types of machinery with durations exceeding a minute.
Estimating extreme flood probabilities
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Estimates of the exceedance probabilities of extreme floods are needed for the assessment of flood hazard at Department of Energy facilities. A new approach using a joint probability distribution of extreme rainfalls and antecedent soil moisture conditions, along with a rainfall runoff model, provides estimates of probabilities for floods approaching the probable maximum flood. This approach is illustrated for a 570 km2 catchment in Wisconsin and a 260 km2 catchment in Tennessee
Roussas, George G
2006-01-01
Roussas's Introduction to Probability features exceptionally clear explanations of the mathematics of probability theory and explores its diverse applications through numerous interesting and motivational examples. It provides a thorough introduction to the subject for professionals and advanced students taking their first course in probability. The content is based on the introductory chapters of Roussas's book, An Intoduction to Probability and Statistical Inference, with additional chapters and revisions. Written by a well-respected author known for great exposition an
Gielen, Fabrice; Buryska, Tomas; Van Vliet, Liisa; Butz, Maren; Damborsky, Jiri; Prokop, Zbynek; Hollfelder, Florian
2015-01-01
Analysis of concentration dependencies is key to the quantitative understanding of biological and chemical systems. In experimental tests involving concentration gradients such as inhibitor library screening, the number of data points and the ratio between the stock volume and the volume required in each test determine the quality and efficiency of the information gained. Titerplate assays are currently the most widely used format, even though they require microlitre volumes. Compartmentalization of reactions in pico- to nanoliter water-in-oil droplets in microfluidic devices provides a solution for massive volume reduction. This work addresses the challenge of producing microfluidic-based concentration gradients in a way that every droplet represents one unique reagent combination. We present a simple microcapillary technique able to generate such series of monodisperse water-in-oil droplets (with a frequency of up to 10 Hz) from a sample presented in an open well (e.g., a titerplate). Time-dependent variation of the well content results in microdroplets that represent time capsules of the composition of the source well. By preserving the spatial encoding of the droplets in tubing, each reactor is assigned an accurate concentration value. We used this approach to record kinetic time courses of the haloalkane dehalogenase DbjA and analyzed 150 combinations of enzyme/substrate/inhibitor in less than 5 min, resulting in conclusive Michaelis-Menten and inhibition curves. Avoiding chips and merely requiring two pumps, a magnetic plate with a stirrer, tubing, and a pipet tip, this easy-to-use device rivals the output of much more expensive liquid handling systems using a fraction (∼100-fold less) of the reagents consumed in microwell format. PMID:25496166
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
We report a systematic study about the effect of cobalt concentration in the growth solution over the crystallization, growth, and optical properties of hydrothermally synthesized Zn1−xCoxO [0 ≤ x ≤ 0.40, x is the weight (wt.) % of Co in the growth solution] nanorods. Dilute Co concentration of 1 wt. % in the growth solution enhances the bulk crystal quality of ZnO nanorods, and high wt. % leads to distortion in the ZnO lattice that depresses the crystallization, growth as well as the surface structure quality of ZnO. Although, Co concentration in the growth solution varies from 1 to 40 wt. %, the real doping concentration is limited to 0.28 at. % that is due to the low growth temperature of 80 °C. The enhancement in the crystal quality of ZnO nanorods at dilute Co concentration in the solution is due to the strain relaxation that is significantly higher for ZnO nanorods prepared without, and with high wt. % of Co in the growth solution. Second harmonic generation is used to investigate the net dipole distribution from these coatings, which provides detailed information about bulk and surface structure quality of ZnO nanorods at the same time. High quality ZnO nanorods are fabricated by a low-temperature (80 °C) hydrothermal synthesis method, and no post synthesis treatment is needed for further crystallization. Therefore, this method is advantageous for the growth of high quality ZnO coatings on plastic substrates that may lead toward its application in flexible electronics
Edwards, William F.; Shiflett, Ray C.; Shultz, Harris
2008-01-01
The mathematical model used to describe independence between two events in probability has a non-intuitive consequence called dependent spaces. The paper begins with a very brief history of the development of probability, then defines dependent spaces, and reviews what is known about finite spaces with uniform probability. The study of finite…
Interpretations of probability
Khrennikov, Andrei
2009-01-01
This is the first fundamental book devoted to non-Kolmogorov probability models. It provides a mathematical theory of negative probabilities, with numerous applications to quantum physics, information theory, complexity, biology and psychology. The book also presents an interesting model of cognitive information reality with flows of information probabilities, describing the process of thinking, social, and psychological phenomena.
Childers, Timothy
2013-01-01
Probability is increasingly important for our understanding of the world. What is probability? How do we model it, and how do we use it? Timothy Childers presents a lively introduction to the foundations of probability and to philosophical issues it raises. He keeps technicalities to a minimum, and assumes no prior knowledge of the subject. He explains the main interpretations of probability-frequentist, propensity, classical, Bayesian, and objective Bayesian-and uses stimulatingexamples to bring the subject to life. All students of philosophy will benefit from an understanding of probability,
Introduction to probability models
Ross, Sheldon M
2006-01-01
Introduction to Probability Models, Tenth Edition, provides an introduction to elementary probability theory and stochastic processes. There are two approaches to the study of probability theory. One is heuristic and nonrigorous, and attempts to develop in students an intuitive feel for the subject that enables him or her to think probabilistically. The other approach attempts a rigorous development of probability by using the tools of measure theory. The first approach is employed in this text. The book begins by introducing basic concepts of probability theory, such as the random v
Probability of Grounding and Collision Events
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1996-01-01
To quantify the risks involved in ship traffic, rational criteria for collision and grounding accidents are developed. This implies that probabilities as well as inherent consequences can be analysed and assessed. The presnt paper outlines a method for evaluation of the probability of ship...
Florescu, Ionut
2013-01-01
THE COMPLETE COLLECTION NECESSARY FOR A CONCRETE UNDERSTANDING OF PROBABILITY Written in a clear, accessible, and comprehensive manner, the Handbook of Probability presents the fundamentals of probability with an emphasis on the balance of theory, application, and methodology. Utilizing basic examples throughout, the handbook expertly transitions between concepts and practice to allow readers an inclusive introduction to the field of probability. The book provides a useful format with self-contained chapters, allowing the reader easy and quick reference. Each chapter includes an introductio
Ash, Robert B; Lukacs, E
1972-01-01
Real Analysis and Probability provides the background in real analysis needed for the study of probability. Topics covered range from measure and integration theory to functional analysis and basic concepts of probability. The interplay between measure theory and topology is also discussed, along with conditional probability and expectation, the central limit theorem, and strong laws of large numbers with respect to martingale theory.Comprised of eight chapters, this volume begins with an overview of the basic concepts of the theory of measure and integration, followed by a presentation of var
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In this work, I formulate the persistence probability for a qubit device as the probability of measuring its computational degrees of freedom in the unperturbed state without the decoherence arising from environmental interactions. A decoherence time can be obtained from the persistence probability. Drawing on recent work of Garg, and also Palma, Suomine, and Ekert, I apply the persistence probability formalism to a generic single-qubit device coupled to a thermal environment, and also apply it to a trapped-ion quantum register coupled to the ion vibrational modes. (author)
Freund, John E
1993-01-01
Thorough, lucid coverage of permutations and factorials, probabilities and odds, frequency interpretation, mathematical expectation, decision making, postulates of probability, rule of elimination, binomial distribution, geometric distribution, standard deviation, law of large numbers, and much more. Exercises with some solutions. Summary. Bibliography. Includes 42 black-and-white illustrations. 1973 edition.
On Quantum Conditional Probability
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Isabel Guerra Bobo
2013-02-01
Full Text Available We argue that quantum theory does not allow for a generalization of the notion of classical conditional probability by showing that the probability defined by the Lüders rule, standardly interpreted in the literature as the quantum-mechanical conditionalization rule, cannot be interpreted as such.
Prabhu, Narahari
2011-01-01
Recent research in probability has been concerned with applications such as data mining and finance models. Some aspects of the foundations of probability theory have receded into the background. Yet, these aspects are very important and have to be brought back into prominence.
Probability, Nondeterminism and Concurrency
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Varacca, Daniele
Nondeterminism is modelled in domain theory by the notion of a powerdomain, while probability is modelled by that of the probabilistic powerdomain. Some problems arise when we want to combine them in order to model computation in which both nondeterminism and probability are present. In particula...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Elena Druica
2007-05-01
Full Text Available The science of probabilities has earned a special place because it tried through its concepts to build a bridge between theory and experimenting.As a formal notion which by definition does not lead to polemic, probability, nevertheless, meets a series of difficulties of interpretation whenever the probability must be applied to certain particular situations.Usually, the economic literature brings into discussion two interpretations of the concept of probability:the objective interpretation often found under the name of frequency or statistical interpretation and the subjective or personal interpretation. Surprisingly, the third appproach is excluded:the logical interpretation.The purpose of the present paper is to study some aspects of the subjective and logical interpretation of the probability, aswell as the implications in the economics.
Tokinaga, Shozo; Ikeda, Yoshikazu
In investments, it is not easy to identify traders'behavior from stock prices, and agent systems may help us. This paper deals with discriminant analyses of stock prices using multifractality of time series generated via multi-agent systems and interpolation based on Wavelet Transforms. We assume five types of agents where a part of agents prefer forecast equations or production rules. Then, it is shown that the time series of artificial stock price reveals as a multifractal time series whose features are defined by the Hausedorff dimension D(h). As a result, we see the relationship between the reliability (reproducibility) of multifractality and D(h) under sufficient number of time series data. However, generally we need sufficient samples to estimate D(h), then we use interpolations of multifractal times series based on the Wavelet Transform.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The concept of probability is now, and always has been, central to the debate on the interpretation of quantum mechanics. Furthermore, probability permeates all of science, as well as our every day life. The papers included in this volume, written by leading proponents of the ideas expressed, embrace a broad spectrum of thought and results: mathematical, physical epistemological, and experimental, both specific and general. The contributions are arranged in parts under the following headings: Following Schroedinger's thoughts; Probability and quantum mechanics; Aspects of the arguments on nonlocality; Bell's theorem and EPR correlations; Real or Gedanken experiments and their interpretation; Questions about irreversibility and stochasticity; and Epistemology, interpretation and culture. (author). refs.; figs.; tabs
Billingsley, Patrick
2012-01-01
Praise for the Third Edition "It is, as far as I'm concerned, among the best books in math ever written....if you are a mathematician and want to have the top reference in probability, this is it." (Amazon.com, January 2006) A complete and comprehensive classic in probability and measure theory Probability and Measure, Anniversary Edition by Patrick Billingsley celebrates the achievements and advancements that have made this book a classic in its field for the past 35 years. Now re-issued in a new style and format, but with the reliable content that the third edition was revered for, this
Simulations of Probabilities for Quantum Computing
Zak, M.
1996-01-01
It has been demonstrated that classical probabilities, and in particular, probabilistic Turing machine, can be simulated by combining chaos and non-LIpschitz dynamics, without utilization of any man-made devices (such as random number generators). Self-organizing properties of systems coupling simulated and calculated probabilities and their link to quantum computations are discussed.
Probability elements of the mathematical theory
Heathcote, C R
2000-01-01
Designed for students studying mathematical statistics and probability after completing a course in calculus and real variables, this text deals with basic notions of probability spaces, random variables, distribution functions and generating functions, as well as joint distributions and the convergence properties of sequences of random variables. Includes worked examples and over 250 exercises with solutions.
Probability and Bayesian statistics
1987-01-01
This book contains selected and refereed contributions to the "Inter national Symposium on Probability and Bayesian Statistics" which was orga nized to celebrate the 80th birthday of Professor Bruno de Finetti at his birthplace Innsbruck in Austria. Since Professor de Finetti died in 1985 the symposium was dedicated to the memory of Bruno de Finetti and took place at Igls near Innsbruck from 23 to 26 September 1986. Some of the pa pers are published especially by the relationship to Bruno de Finetti's scientific work. The evolution of stochastics shows growing importance of probability as coherent assessment of numerical values as degrees of believe in certain events. This is the basis for Bayesian inference in the sense of modern statistics. The contributions in this volume cover a broad spectrum ranging from foundations of probability across psychological aspects of formulating sub jective probability statements, abstract measure theoretical considerations, contributions to theoretical statistics an...
Hartmann, Stephan
2011-01-01
Many results of modern physics--those of quantum mechanics, for instance--come in a probabilistic guise. But what do probabilistic statements in physics mean? Are probabilities matters of objective fact and part of the furniture of the world, as objectivists think? Or do they only express ignorance or belief, as Bayesians suggest? And how are probabilistic hypotheses justified and supported by empirical evidence? Finally, what does the probabilistic nature of physics imply for our understanding of the world? This volume is the first to provide a philosophical appraisal of probabilities in all of physics. Its main aim is to make sense of probabilistic statements as they occur in the various physical theories and models and to provide a plausible epistemology and metaphysics of probabilities. The essays collected here consider statistical physics, probabilistic modelling, and quantum mechanics, and critically assess the merits and disadvantages of objectivist and subjectivist views of probabilities in these fie...
Stochastic Programming with Probability
Andrieu, Laetitia; Vázquez-Abad, Felisa
2007-01-01
In this work we study optimization problems subject to a failure constraint. This constraint is expressed in terms of a condition that causes failure, representing a physical or technical breakdown. We formulate the problem in terms of a probability constraint, where the level of "confidence" is a modelling parameter and has the interpretation that the probability of failure should not exceed that level. Application of the stochastic Arrow-Hurwicz algorithm poses two difficulties: one is structural and arises from the lack of convexity of the probability constraint, and the other is the estimation of the gradient of the probability constraint. We develop two gradient estimators with decreasing bias via a convolution method and a finite difference technique, respectively, and we provide a full analysis of convergence of the algorithms. Convergence results are used to tune the parameters of the numerical algorithms in order to achieve best convergence rates, and numerical results are included via an example of ...
Grimmett, Geoffrey
2014-01-01
Probability is an area of mathematics of tremendous contemporary importance across all aspects of human endeavour. This book is a compact account of the basic features of probability and random processes at the level of first and second year mathematics undergraduates and Masters' students in cognate fields. It is suitable for a first course in probability, plus a follow-up course in random processes including Markov chains. A special feature is the authors' attention to rigorous mathematics: not everything is rigorous, but the need for rigour is explained at difficult junctures. The text is enriched by simple exercises, together with problems (with very brief hints) many of which are taken from final examinations at Cambridge and Oxford. The first eight chapters form a course in basic probability, being an account of events, random variables, and distributions - discrete and continuous random variables are treated separately - together with simple versions of the law of large numbers and the central limit th...
Hemmo, Meir
2012-01-01
What is the role and meaning of probability in physical theory, in particular in two of the most successful theories of our age, quantum physics and statistical mechanics? Laws once conceived as universal and deterministic, such as Newton‘s laws of motion, or the second law of thermodynamics, are replaced in these theories by inherently probabilistic laws. This collection of essays by some of the world‘s foremost experts presents an in-depth analysis of the meaning of probability in contemporary physics. Among the questions addressed are: How are probabilities defined? Are they objective or subjective? What is their explanatory value? What are the differences between quantum and classical probabilities? The result is an informative and thought-provoking book for the scientifically inquisitive.
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.;
2014-01-01
either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake 'calibrating adjustments' to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments that...
Estimating Subjective Probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Andersen, Steffen; Fountain, John; Harrison, Glenn W.;
either construct elicitation mechanisms that control for risk aversion, or construct elicitation mechanisms which undertake “calibrating adjustments” to elicited reports. We illustrate how the joint estimation of risk attitudes and subjective probabilities can provide the calibration adjustments that...
Probability and Statistical Inference
Prosper, Harrison B.
2006-01-01
These lectures introduce key concepts in probability and statistical inference at a level suitable for graduate students in particle physics. Our goal is to paint as vivid a picture as possible of the concepts covered.
Marshall, Jennings B.
2007-01-01
This article describes how roulette can be used to teach basic concepts of probability. Various bets are used to illustrate the computation of expected value. A betting system shows variations in patterns that often appear in random events.
Monte Carlo transition probabilities
Lucy, L. B.
2001-01-01
Transition probabilities governing the interaction of energy packets and matter are derived that allow Monte Carlo NLTE transfer codes to be constructed without simplifying the treatment of line formation. These probabilities are such that the Monte Carlo calculation asymptotically recovers the local emissivity of a gas in statistical equilibrium. Numerical experiments with one-point statistical equilibrium problems for Fe II and Hydrogen confirm this asymptotic behaviour. In addition, the re...
Probability in quantum mechanics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
J. G. Gilson
1982-01-01
Full Text Available By using a fluid theory which is an alternative to quantum theory but from which the latter can be deduced exactly, the long-standing problem of how quantum mechanics is related to stochastic processes is studied. It can be seen how the Schrödinger probability density has a relationship to time spent on small sections of an orbit, just as the probability density has in some classical contexts.
Bayesian default probability models
Andrlíková, Petra
2014-01-01
This paper proposes a methodology for default probability estimation for low default portfolios, where the statistical inference may become troublesome. The author suggests using logistic regression models with the Bayesian estimation of parameters. The piecewise logistic regression model and Box-Cox transformation of credit risk score is used to derive the estimates of probability of default, which extends the work by Neagu et al. (2009). The paper shows that the Bayesian models are more acc...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
VICTORIA EUGENIA VALLEJO
Full Text Available El presente estudio evaluó el desempeño de dos sales de tetrazolio, una tradicional: INT y una de nueva generación: XTT, para estimar la densidad de microorganismos degradadores de hidrocarburos (HCs en suelos empleando la técnica del Número Más Probable (NMP. Se analizaron 96 muestras de suelo provenientes de la Ecorregión Cafetera de Colombia. Los microorganismos fueron recuperados en agar mínimo de sales en atmósfera saturada de HCs y la capacidad degradadora fue confirmada por repiques sucesivos utilizando diesel como fuente de carbono. No se observaron diferencias significativas en los recuentos de microorganismos degradadores obtenidos con las dos sales (t de Student, p The objective of this study was to evaluate the performance of two tetrazolium indicators: a traditional one: INT and a new generation one: XTT, for the estimation of hydrocarbon (HC degrading microorganism s density using the Most Probable Number Technique (MPN. Ninety six composite soil samples were taken and analyzed from Ecorregión Cafetera Colombiana. Degrading microorganisms were recovered in minimum salt medium with saturated HC atmosphere. Degrading HC capacity of the microorganisms was confirmed by successive subcultures in the same medium using diesel as only carbon source. Counts obtained with the two salts were not significantly different (Student t test, p < 0,05 but XTT allowed an easier visualization of positive wells due to product solubility of the reduce product. A greater percentage of isolates was obtained using XTT (67%, which suggests that salt type is relevant for recovering of these microorganisms. Additionally, cell detection limit, optimal conditions of XTT concentration and incubation times for detection of activity were evaluated. This evaluation was performed by means of microplate format for hydrocarbon degrading microorganisms using Acinetobacter sp. An inhibitory effect was observed in the recovering of cultivable cells when XTT
Experimental Probability in Elementary School
Andrew, Lane
2009-01-01
Concepts in probability can be more readily understood if students are first exposed to probability via experiment. Performing probability experiments encourages students to develop understandings of probability grounded in real events, as opposed to merely computing answers based on formulae.
Isaac, Richard
1995-01-01
The ideas of probability are all around us. Lotteries, casino gambling, the al most non-stop polling which seems to mold public policy more and more these are a few of the areas where principles of probability impinge in a direct way on the lives and fortunes of the general public. At a more re moved level there is modern science which uses probability and its offshoots like statistics and the theory of random processes to build mathematical descriptions of the real world. In fact, twentieth-century physics, in embrac ing quantum mechanics, has a world view that is at its core probabilistic in nature, contrary to the deterministic one of classical physics. In addition to all this muscular evidence of the importance of probability ideas it should also be said that probability can be lots of fun. It is a subject where you can start thinking about amusing, interesting, and often difficult problems with very little mathematical background. In this book, I wanted to introduce a reader with at least a fairl...
Improving Ranking Using Quantum Probability
Melucci, Massimo
2011-01-01
The paper shows that ranking information units by quantum probability differs from ranking them by classical probability provided the same data used for parameter estimation. As probability of detection (also known as recall or power) and probability of false alarm (also known as fallout or size) measure the quality of ranking, we point out and show that ranking by quantum probability yields higher probability of detection than ranking by classical probability provided a given probability of ...
Collision Probability Analysis
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Peter Friis; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup
1998-01-01
It is the purpose of this report to apply a rational model for prediction of ship-ship collision probabilities as function of the ship and the crew characteristics and the navigational environment for MS Dextra sailing on a route between Cadiz and the Canary Islands.The most important ship and crew...... characteristics are: ship speed, ship manoeuvrability, the layout of the navigational bridge, the radar system, the number and the training of navigators, the presence of a look out etc. The main parameters affecting the navigational environment are ship traffic density, probability distributions of wind speeds...... probability, i.e. a study of the navigator's role in resolving critical situations, a causation factor is derived as a second step.The report documents the first step in a probabilistic collision damage analysis. Future work will inlcude calculation of energy released for crushing of structures giving a...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
New Zealand population and cancer statistics have been used to derive the probability that an existing cancer in an individual was the result of a known exposure to radiation. Hypothetical case histories illustrate how sex, race, age at exposure, age at presentation with disease, and the type of cancer affect this probability. The method can be used now to identify claims in which a link between exposure and disease is very strong or very weak, and the types of cancer and population sub-groups for which radiation is most likely to be the causative agent. Advantages and difficulties in using a probability of causation approach in legal or compensation hearings are outlined. The approach is feasible for any carcinogen for which reasonable risk estimates can be made
Minimum Probability Flow Learning
Sohl-Dickstein, Jascha; DeWeese, Michael R
2009-01-01
Learning in probabilistic models is often severely hampered by the general intractability of the normalization factor and its derivatives. Here we propose a new learning technique that obviates the need to compute an intractable normalization factor or sample from the equilibrium distribution of the model. This is achieved by establishing dynamics that would transform the observed data distribution into the model distribution, and then setting as the objective the minimization of the initial flow of probability away from the data distribution. Score matching, minimum velocity learning, and certain forms of contrastive divergence are shown to be special cases of this learning technique. We demonstrate the application of minimum probability flow learning to parameter estimation in Ising models, deep belief networks, multivariate Gaussian distributions and a continuous model with a highly general energy function defined as a power series. In the Ising model case, minimum probability flow learning outperforms cur...
Introduction to imprecise probabilities
Augustin, Thomas; de Cooman, Gert; Troffaes, Matthias C M
2014-01-01
In recent years, the theory has become widely accepted and has been further developed, but a detailed introduction is needed in order to make the material available and accessible to a wide audience. This will be the first book providing such an introduction, covering core theory and recent developments which can be applied to many application areas. All authors of individual chapters are leading researchers on the specific topics, assuring high quality and up-to-date contents. An Introduction to Imprecise Probabilities provides a comprehensive introduction to imprecise probabilities, includin
Negative Probabilities and Contextuality
de Barros, J Acacio; Oas, Gary
2015-01-01
There has been a growing interest, both in physics and psychology, in understanding contextuality in experimentally observed quantities. Different approaches have been proposed to deal with contextual systems, and a promising one is contextuality-by-default, put forth by Dzhafarov and Kujala. The goal of this paper is to present a tutorial on a different approach: negative probabilities. We do so by presenting the overall theory of negative probabilities in a way that is consistent with contextuality-by-default and by examining with this theory some simple examples where contextuality appears, both in physics and psychology.
Classic Problems of Probability
Gorroochurn, Prakash
2012-01-01
"A great book, one that I will certainly add to my personal library."—Paul J. Nahin, Professor Emeritus of Electrical Engineering, University of New Hampshire Classic Problems of Probability presents a lively account of the most intriguing aspects of statistics. The book features a large collection of more than thirty classic probability problems which have been carefully selected for their interesting history, the way they have shaped the field, and their counterintuitive nature. From Cardano's 1564 Games of Chance to Jacob Bernoulli's 1713 Golden Theorem to Parrondo's 1996 Perplexin
Morris, Danielle H; Jones, Michael E; Schoemaker, Minouk J; McFadden, Emily; Ashworth, Alan; Swerdlow, Anthony J
2012-05-15
The authors examined the effect of women's lifestyles on the timing of natural menopause using data from a cross-sectional questionnaire used in the United Kingdom-based Breakthrough Generations Study in 2003-2011. The analyses included 50,678 women (21,511 who had experienced a natural menopause) who were 40-98 years of age at study entry and did not have a history of breast cancer. Cox competing risks proportional hazards models were fitted to examine the relation of age at natural menopause to lifestyle and anthropometric factors. Results were adjusted for age at reporting, smoking status at menopause, parity, and body mass index at age 40 years, as appropriate. All P values were 2-sided. High adult weight (P(trend) vegetarian (P < 0.001) were associated with older age at menopause. Neither height nor history of an eating disorder was associated with menopausal age. These findings show the importance of lifestyle factors in determining menopausal age. PMID:22494951
Failure probability of ceramic coil springs
Nohut, Serkan; Schneider, Gerold A.
2009-01-01
Ceramic springs are commercially available and a detailed reliability analysis of these components would be useful for their introduction in new applications. In this paper an analytical and a numerical analyses of the failure probability for coil springs under compression is presented. Based on analytically derived relationships and numerically calculated results, fitting functions for volume and surface flaws will be introduced which provide the prediction of the failure probability of cera...
Estimating Probabilities in Recommendation Systems
Sun, Mingxuan; Kidwell, Paul
2010-01-01
Recommendation systems are emerging as an important business application with significant economic impact. Currently popular systems include Amazon's book recommendations, Netflix's movie recommendations, and Pandora's music recommendations. In this paper we address the problem of estimating probabilities associated with recommendation system data using non-parametric kernel smoothing. In our estimation we interpret missing items as randomly censored observations and obtain efficient computation schemes using combinatorial properties of generating functions. We demonstrate our approach with several case studies involving real world movie recommendation data. The results are comparable with state-of-the-art techniques while also providing probabilistic preference estimates outside the scope of traditional recommender systems.
Probably Almost Bayes Decisions
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Anoulova, S.; Fischer, Paul; Poelt, S.; Simon, H.- U.
1996-01-01
In this paper, we investigate the problem of classifying objects which are given by feature vectors with Boolean entries. Our aim is to "(efficiently) learn probably almost optimal classifications" from examples. A classical approach in pattern recognition uses empirical estimations of the Bayesian...
Plotnitsky, Arkady
2010-01-01
Offers an exploration of the relationships between epistemology and probability in the work of Niels Bohr, Werner Heisenberg, and Erwin Schrodinger; in quantum mechanics; and in modern physics. This book considers the implications of these relationships and of quantum theory for our understanding of the nature of thinking and knowledge in general
Quznetsov, Gunn
1998-01-01
The propositional logic is generalized on the real numbers field. The logical analog of the Bernoulli independent tests scheme is constructed. The variant of the nonstandard analysis is adopted for the definition of the logical function, which has all properties of the classical probability function. The logical analog of the Large Number Law is deduced from properties of this function.
Quznetsov, G. A.
2003-01-01
The propositional logic is generalized on the real numbers field. The logical analog of the Bernoulli independent tests scheme is constructed. The variant of the nonstandard analysis is adopted for the definition of the logical function, which has all properties of the classical probability function. The logical analog of the Large Number Law is deduced from properties of this function.
Transition probabilities for atoms
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Current status of advanced theoretical methods for transition probabilities for atoms and ions is discussed. An experiment on the f values of the resonance transitions of the Kr and Xe isoelectronic sequences is suggested as a test for the theoretical methods
Counterexamples in probability
Stoyanov, Jordan M
2013-01-01
While most mathematical examples illustrate the truth of a statement, counterexamples demonstrate a statement's falsity. Enjoyable topics of study, counterexamples are valuable tools for teaching and learning. The definitive book on the subject in regards to probability, this third edition features the author's revisions and corrections plus a substantial new appendix.
Negative probability in the framework of combined probability
Burgin, Mark
2013-01-01
Negative probability has found diverse applications in theoretical physics. Thus, construction of sound and rigorous mathematical foundations for negative probability is important for physics. There are different axiomatizations of conventional probability. So, it is natural that negative probability also has different axiomatic frameworks. In the previous publications (Burgin, 2009; 2010), negative probability was mathematically formalized and rigorously interpreted in the context of extende...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Grunewald, Thomas; Finke, Robert; Graetz, Rainer
2010-07-01
Mechanically generated sparks are a potential source of ignition in highly combustible areas. A multiplicity of mechanical and reaction-kinetic influences causes a complex interaction of parameters. It is only little known about their effect on the ignition probability. The ignition probability of mechanically generated sparks with a material combination of unalloyed steel/unalloyed steel and with an kinetic impact energy between 3 and 277 Nm could be determined statistically tolerable. In addition, the explosiveness of not oxidized particles at increased temperatures in excess stoichiometric mixtures was proven. A unique correlation between impact energy and ignition probability as well as a correlation of impact energy and number of separated particles could be determined. Also, a principle component analysis considering the interaction of individual particles could not find a specific combination of measurable characteristics of the particles, which correlate with a distinct increase of the ignition probability.
Waste Package Misload Probability
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
J.K. Knudsen
2001-11-20
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a.
Measurement uncertainty and probability
Willink, Robin
2013-01-01
A measurement result is incomplete without a statement of its 'uncertainty' or 'margin of error'. But what does this statement actually tell us? By examining the practical meaning of probability, this book discusses what is meant by a '95 percent interval of measurement uncertainty', and how such an interval can be calculated. The book argues that the concept of an unknown 'target value' is essential if probability is to be used as a tool for evaluating measurement uncertainty. It uses statistical concepts, such as a conditional confidence interval, to present 'extended' classical methods for evaluating measurement uncertainty. The use of the Monte Carlo principle for the simulation of experiments is described. Useful for researchers and graduate students, the book also discusses other philosophies relating to the evaluation of measurement uncertainty. It employs clear notation and language to avoid the confusion that exists in this controversial field of science.
Waste Package Misload Probability
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The objective of this calculation is to calculate the probability of occurrence for fuel assembly (FA) misloads (i.e., Fa placed in the wrong location) and FA damage during FA movements. The scope of this calculation is provided by the information obtained from the Framatome ANP 2001a report. The first step in this calculation is to categorize each fuel-handling events that occurred at nuclear power plants. The different categories are based on FAs being damaged or misloaded. The next step is to determine the total number of FAs involved in the event. Using the information, a probability of occurrence will be calculated for FA misload and FA damage events. This calculation is an expansion of preliminary work performed by Framatome ANP 2001a
Paradoxes in probability theory
Eckhardt, William
2013-01-01
Paradoxes provide a vehicle for exposing misinterpretations and misapplications of accepted principles. This book discusses seven paradoxes surrounding probability theory. Some remain the focus of controversy; others have allegedly been solved, however the accepted solutions are demonstrably incorrect. Each paradox is shown to rest on one or more fallacies. Instead of the esoteric, idiosyncratic, and untested methods that have been brought to bear on these problems, the book invokes uncontroversial probability principles, acceptable both to frequentists and subjectivists. The philosophical disputation inspired by these paradoxes is shown to be misguided and unnecessary; for instance, startling claims concerning human destiny and the nature of reality are directly related to fallacious reasoning in a betting paradox, and a problem analyzed in philosophy journals is resolved by means of a computer program.
Objectifying Subjective Probabilities
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Childers, Timothy
Dordrecht: Springer, 2012 - ( Weber , M.; Dieks, D.; Gonzalez, W.; Hartman, S.; Stadler, F.; Stöltzner, M.), s. 19-28. (The Philosophy of Science in a European Perspective. 3). ISBN 978-94-007-3029-8. [Pluralism in the Foundations of Statistics. Canterbury (GB), 09.09.2010-10.09.2010] R&D Projects: GA ČR(CZ) GAP401/10/1504 Institutional support: RVO:67985955 Keywords : probabilities * direct Inference Subject RIV: AA - Philosophy ; Religion
Whittle, Peter
1992-01-01
This book is a complete revision of the earlier work Probability which ap peared in 1970. While revised so radically and incorporating so much new material as to amount to a new text, it preserves both the aim and the approach of the original. That aim was stated as the provision of a 'first text in probability, de manding a reasonable but not extensive knowledge of mathematics, and taking the reader to what one might describe as a good intermediate level'. In doing so it attempted to break away from stereotyped applications, and consider applications of a more novel and significant character. The particular novelty of the approach was that expectation was taken as the prime concept, and the concept of expectation axiomatized rather than that of a probability measure. In the preface to the original text of 1970 (reproduced below, together with that to the Russian edition of 1982) I listed what I saw as the advantages of the approach in as unlaboured a fashion as I could. I also took the view that the text...
A BAYESIAN ABDUCTION MODEL FOR EXTRACTING THE MOST PROBABLE EVIDENCE TO SUPPORT SENSEMAKING
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Paul Munya
2015-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, we discuss the development of a Bayesian Abduction Model of Sensemaking Support (BAMSS as a tool for information fusion to support prospective sensemaking. Currently, BAMSS can identify the Most Probable Explanation from a Bayesian Belief Network (BBN and extract the prevalent conditional probability values to help the sensemaking analysts to understand the cause-effect of the adversary information. Actual vignettes from databases of modern insurgencies and asymmetry warfare are used to validate the performance of BAMSS. BAMSS computes the posterior probability of the network edges and performs information fusion using a clustering algorithm. In the model, the friendly force commander uses the adversary information to prospectively make sense of the enemy’s intent. Sensitivity analyses were used to confirm the robustness of BAMSS in generating the Most Probable Explanations from a BBN through abductive inference. The simulation results demonstrate the utility of BAMSS as a computational tool to support sense making.
Probability mapping of contaminants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Exhaustive characterization of a contaminated site is a physical and practical impossibility. Descriptions of the nature, extent, and level of contamination, as well as decisions regarding proposed remediation activities, must be made in a state of uncertainty based upon limited physical sampling. The probability mapping approach illustrated in this paper appears to offer site operators a reasonable, quantitative methodology for many environmental remediation decisions and allows evaluation of the risk associated with those decisions. For example, output from this approach can be used in quantitative, cost-based decision models for evaluating possible site characterization and/or remediation plans, resulting in selection of the risk-adjusted, least-cost alternative. The methodology is completely general, and the techniques are applicable to a wide variety of environmental restoration projects. The probability-mapping approach is illustrated by application to a contaminated site at the former DOE Feed Materials Production Center near Fernald, Ohio. Soil geochemical data, collected as part of the Uranium-in-Soils Integrated Demonstration Project, have been used to construct a number of geostatistical simulations of potential contamination for parcels approximately the size of a selective remediation unit (the 3-m width of a bulldozer blade). Each such simulation accurately reflects the actual measured sample values, and reproduces the univariate statistics and spatial character of the extant data. Post-processing of a large number of these equally likely statistically similar images produces maps directly showing the probability of exceeding specified levels of contamination (potential clean-up or personnel-hazard thresholds)
Measurement Uncertainty and Probability
Willink, Robin
2013-02-01
Part I. Principles: 1. Introduction; 2. Foundational ideas in measurement; 3. Components of error or uncertainty; 4. Foundational ideas in probability and statistics; 5. The randomization of systematic errors; 6. Beyond the standard confidence interval; Part II. Evaluation of Uncertainty: 7. Final preparation; 8. Evaluation using the linear approximation; 9. Evaluation without the linear approximations; 10. Uncertainty information fit for purpose; Part III. Related Topics: 11. Measurement of vectors and functions; 12. Why take part in a measurement comparison?; 13. Other philosophies; 14. An assessment of objective Bayesian methods; 15. A guide to the expression of uncertainty in measurement; 16. Measurement near a limit - an insoluble problem?; References; Index.
Integration, measure and probability
Pitt, H R
2012-01-01
This text provides undergraduate mathematics students with an introduction to the modern theory of probability as well as the roots of the theory's mathematical ideas and techniques. Centered around the concept of measure and integration, the treatment is applicable to other branches of analysis and explores more specialized topics, including convergence theorems and random sequences and functions.The initial part is devoted to an exploration of measure and integration from first principles, including sets and set functions, general theory, and integrals of functions of real variables. These t
Probability Theories and the Justification of Theism
Portugal, Agnaldo Cuoco
2003-01-01
In the present paper I intend to analyse, criticise and suggest an alternative to Richard Swinburne"s use of Bayes"s theorem to justify the belief that there is a God. Swinburne"s contribution here lies in the scope of his project and the interpretation he adopts for Bayes"s formula, a very important theorem of the probability calculus.
Probable maximum flood control
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
This study proposes preliminary design concepts to protect the waste-handling facilities and all shaft and ramp entries to the underground from the probable maximum flood (PMF) in the current design configuration for the proposed Nevada Nuclear Waste Storage Investigation (NNWSI) repository protection provisions were furnished by the United States Bureau of Reclamation (USSR) or developed from USSR data. Proposed flood protection provisions include site grading, drainage channels, and diversion dikes. Figures are provided to show these proposed flood protection provisions at each area investigated. These areas are the central surface facilities (including the waste-handling building and waste treatment building), tuff ramp portal, waste ramp portal, men-and-materials shaft, emplacement exhaust shaft, and exploratory shafts facility
Emptiness Formation Probability
Crawford, Nicholas; Ng, Stephen; Starr, Shannon
2016-08-01
We present rigorous upper and lower bounds on the emptiness formation probability for the ground state of a spin-1/2 Heisenberg XXZ quantum spin system. For a d-dimensional system we find a rate of decay of the order {exp(-c L^{d+1})} where L is the sidelength of the box in which we ask for the emptiness formation event to occur. In the {d=1} case this confirms previous predictions made in the integrable systems community, though our bounds do not achieve the precision predicted by Bethe ansatz calculations. On the other hand, our bounds in the case {d ≥ 2} are new. The main tools we use are reflection positivity and a rigorous path integral expansion, which is a variation on those previously introduced by Toth, Aizenman-Nachtergaele and Ueltschi.
Measure, integral and probability
Capiński, Marek
2004-01-01
Measure, Integral and Probability is a gentle introduction that makes measure and integration theory accessible to the average third-year undergraduate student. The ideas are developed at an easy pace in a form that is suitable for self-study, with an emphasis on clear explanations and concrete examples rather than abstract theory. For this second edition, the text has been thoroughly revised and expanded. New features include: · a substantial new chapter, featuring a constructive proof of the Radon-Nikodym theorem, an analysis of the structure of Lebesgue-Stieltjes measures, the Hahn-Jordan decomposition, and a brief introduction to martingales · key aspects of financial modelling, including the Black-Scholes formula, discussed briefly from a measure-theoretical perspective to help the reader understand the underlying mathematical framework. In addition, further exercises and examples are provided to encourage the reader to become directly involved with the material.
Savage s Concept of Probability
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
熊卫
2003-01-01
Starting with personal preference, Savage [3] constructs a foundation theory for probability from the qualitative probability to the quantitative probability and to utility. There are some profound logic connections between three steps in Savage's theory; that is, quantitative concepts properly represent qualitative concepts. Moreover, Savage's definition of subjective probability is in accordance with probability theory, and the theory gives us a rational decision model only if we assume that the weak ...
Cross section probability tables in multi-group transport calculations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The use of cross section probability tables in multigroup transport calculations is presented. Emphasis is placed on how probability table parameters are generated in a multigroup cross section processor and how existing transport codes must be modifed to use them. In order to illustrate the accuracy obtained by using probability tables, results are presented for a variety of neutron and photon transport problems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In Saudi Arabia, fossil-fuel is the main source of power generation. Due to the huge economic and demographic growth, the electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased and should continue to increase at a very fast rate. At the moment, more than half a million barrels of oil per day is used directly for power generation. Herein, we assess the power generation situation of the country and its future conditions through a modelling approach. For this purpose, we present the current situation by detailing the existing generation mix of electricity. Then we develop an optimization model of the power sector which aims to define the best production and investment pattern to reach the expected demand. Subsequently, we will carry out a sensitivity analysis so as to evaluate the robustness of the model's by taking into account the integration variability of the other alternative (non-fossil fuel based) resources. The results point out that the choices of investment in the power sector strongly affect the potential oil's exports of Saudi Arabia. For instance, by decarbonizing half of its generation mix, Saudi Arabia can release around 0.5 Mb/d barrels of oil equivalent per day from 2020. Moreover, total power generation cost reduction can reach up to around 28% per year from 2030 if Saudi Arabia manages to attain the most optimal generation mix structure introduced in the model (50% of power from renewables and nuclear power plants and 50% from the fossil power plants). - Highlights: • We model the current and future power generation situation of Saudi Arabia. • We take into account the integration of the other alternative resources. • We consider different scenarios of power generation structure for the country. • Optimal generation mix can release considerable amount of oil for export
RANDOM VARIABLE WITH FUZZY PROBABILITY
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
吕恩琳; 钟佑明
2003-01-01
Mathematic description about the second kind fuzzy random variable namely the random variable with crisp event-fuzzy probability was studied. Based on the interval probability and using the fuzzy resolution theorem, the feasible condition about a probability fuzzy number set was given, go a step further the definition arid characters of random variable with fuzzy probability ( RVFP ) and the fuzzy distribution function and fuzzy probability distribution sequence of the RVFP were put forward. The fuzzy probability resolution theorem with the closing operation of fuzzy probability was given and proved. The definition and characters of mathematical expectation and variance of the RVFP were studied also. All mathematic description about the RVFP has the closing operation for fuzzy probability, as a result, the foundation of perfecting fuzzy probability operation method is laid.
Probability, Logic and Objectivity - The concept of probability of Carl Stumpf
Benedictus, Fedde
2015-01-01
We will show that Carl Stumpf's interpretation of the concept of probability is best understood as that of an objective Bayesian. First we analyse Stumpf's work in relation to that of his contemporary Johannes von Kries, and after that we will discuss various ways in which Stumpf's probability-concept has been construed. By showing that the construals of Stumpf's account by Hans Reichenbach, Richard von Mises and Andreas Kamlah are unfair - and at some points incorrect - we uncover the aspects that are essential to Stumpf's probability interpretation.
The Logic of Parametric Probability
Norman, Joseph W
2012-01-01
The computational method of parametric probability analysis is introduced. It is demonstrated how to embed logical formulas from the propositional calculus into parametric probability networks, thereby enabling sound reasoning about the probabilities of logical propositions. An alternative direct probability encoding scheme is presented, which allows statements of implication and quantification to be modeled directly as constraints on conditional probabilities. Several example problems are solved, from Johnson-Laird's aces to Smullyan's zombies. Many apparently challenging problems in logic turn out to be simple problems in algebra and computer science; often just systems of polynomial equations or linear optimization problems. This work extends the mathematical logic and parametric probability methods invented by George Boole.
Dynamic Estimation of Credit Rating Transition Probabilities
Berd, Arthur M.
2009-01-01
We present a continuous-time maximum likelihood estimation methodology for credit rating transition probabilities, taking into account the presence of censored data. We perform rolling estimates of the transition matrices with exponential time weighting with varying horizons and discuss the underlying dynamics of transition generator matrices in the long-term and short-term estimation horizons.
How to Read Probability Distributions as Statements about Process
Frank, Steven A.
2014-01-01
Probability distributions can be read as simple expressions of information. Each continuous probability distribution describes how information changes with magnitude. Once one learns to read a probability distribution as a measurement scale of information, opportunities arise to understand the processes that generate the commonly observed patterns. Probability expressions may be parsed into four components: the dissipation of all information, except the preservation of average values, taken o...
Physics with exotic probability theory
Youssef, Saul
2001-01-01
Probability theory can be modified in essentially one way while maintaining consistency with the basic Bayesian framework. This modification results in copies of standard probability theory for real, complex or quaternion probabilities. These copies, in turn, allow one to derive quantum theory while restoring standard probability theory in the classical limit. The argument leading to these three copies constrain physical theories in the same sense that Cox's original arguments constrain alter...
Quantum Foundations : Is Probability Ontological ?
Rosinger, Elemer E
2007-01-01
It is argued that the Copenhagen Interpretation of Quantum Mechanics, founded ontologically on the concept of probability, may be questionable in view of the fact that within Probability Theory itself the ontological status of the concept of probability has always been, and is still under discussion.
Interpretation of Plateau in High-Harmonic Generation
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
程太旺; 李晓峰; 敖淑艳; 傅盘铭
2003-01-01
The plateau in high-harmonic generation is investigated in the frequency domain. Probability density of an electron in an electromagnetic field is obtained through analysing the quantized-field Volkov state. The plateau of high-harmonic generation reflects the spectral density of the electron at the location of nucleus after abovethreshold ionization.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jelsøe, Erling; Jæger, Birgit
2015-01-01
When analysing the results of a European wide citizen consultation on sustainable consumption it is necessary to take a number of issues into account, such as the question of representativity and tensions between national and European identies and between consumer and Citizen orientations regarding...
Investigation of probable decays in rhenium isotopes
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Making use of effective liquid drop model (ELDM), the feasibility of proton and alpha decays and various cluster decays is analysed theoretically. For different neutron-rich and neutron-deficient isotopes of Rhenium in the mass range 150 < A < 200, the half-lives of proton and alpha decays and probable cluster decays are calculated considering the barrier potential as the effective liquid drop one which is the sum of Coulomb, surface and centrifugal potentials. The calculated half-lives for proton decay from various Rhenium isotopes are then compared with the universal decay law (UDL) model to assess the efficiency of the present formalism. Geiger-Nuttal plots of the probable decays are analysed and their respective slopes and intercepts are evaluated
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A new solvent system referred to as Next Generation Solvent or NGS, has been developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the removal of cesium from alkaline solutions in the Caustic Side Solvent Extraction process. NGS is proposed for deployment at MCU and at the Salt Waste Processing Facility. This work investigated the chemical compatibility between NGS and 16 M, 8 M, and 3 M nitric acid from contact that may occur in handling of analytical samples from MCU or, for 3 M acid, which may occur during contactor cleaning operations at MCU. This work shows that reactions occurred between NGS components and the high molarity nitric acid. In the case of 16 M and 8 M nitric acid, initially organo-nitrate groups are generated and attach to the modifier and that with time oxidation reactions convert the modifier into a tarry substance with gases (NOx and possibly CO) evolving. Calorimetric analysis of the organonitrate revealed the reaction products are not explosive nor will they deflagrate. NGS exposure to 3 M nitric acid resulted in much slower reaction kinetics and that the generated products were not energetic. We recommended conducting Accelerated Rate calorimetry on the materials generated in the 16 M and 8 M nitric acid test. Also, we recommend continue monitoring of the samples contacting NGS with 3 M nitric acid.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
In Saudi Arabia, fossil-fuel is the main source of power generation. Due to the huge economic and demographic growth, the electricity consumption in Saudi Arabia has increased and should continue to increase at a very fast rate. At the moment, more than half a million barrels of oil per day is used directly for power generation. Herein, we assess the power generation situation of the country and its future conditions through a modelling approach. For this purpose, we present the current situation by detailing the existing generation mix of electricity. Then we develop a optimization model of the power sector which aims to define the best production and investment pattern to reach the expected demand. Subsequently, we will carry out a sensitivity analysis so as to evaluate the robustness of the model's by taking into account the integration variability of the other alternative (non-fossil fuel based) resources. The results point out that the choices of investment in the power sector strongly affect the potential oil's exports of Saudi Arabia. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
''The Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report'' prescribes an approach to the methodology for performing postclosure criticality analyses within the monitored geologic repository at Yucca Mountain, Nevada. An essential component of the methodology is the ''Configuration Generator Model for In-Package Criticality'' that provides a tool to evaluate the probabilities of degraded configurations achieving a critical state. The configuration generator model is a risk-informed, performance-based process for evaluating the criticality potential of degraded configurations in the monitored geologic repository. The method uses event tree methods to define configuration classes derived from criticality scenarios and to identify configuration class characteristics (parameters, ranges, etc.). The probabilities of achieving the various configuration classes are derived in part from probability density functions for degradation parameters. The NRC has issued ''Safety Evaluation Report for Disposal Criticality Analysis Methodology Topical Report, Revision 0''. That report contained 28 open items that required resolution through additional documentation. Of the 28 open items, numbers 5, 6, 9, 10, 18, and 19 were concerned with a previously proposed software approach to the configuration generator methodology and, in particular, the keff regression analysis associated with the methodology. However, the use of a keff regression analysis is not part of the current configuration generator methodology and, thus, the referenced open items are no longer considered applicable and will not be further addressed
Probability workshop to be better in probability topic
Asmat, Aszila; Ujang, Suriyati; Wahid, Sharifah Norhuda Syed
2015-02-01
The purpose of the present study was to examine whether statistics anxiety and attitudes towards probability topic among students in higher education level have an effect on their performance. 62 fourth semester science students were given statistics anxiety questionnaires about their perception towards probability topic. Result indicated that students' performance in probability topic is not related to anxiety level, which means that the higher level in statistics anxiety will not cause lower score in probability topic performance. The study also revealed that motivated students gained from probability workshop ensure that their performance in probability topic shows a positive improvement compared before the workshop. In addition there exists a significance difference in students' performance between genders with better achievement among female students compared to male students. Thus, more initiatives in learning programs with different teaching approaches is needed to provide useful information in improving student learning outcome in higher learning institution.
Approximation of Failure Probability Using Conditional Sampling
Giesy. Daniel P.; Crespo, Luis G.; Kenney, Sean P.
2008-01-01
In analyzing systems which depend on uncertain parameters, one technique is to partition the uncertain parameter domain into a failure set and its complement, and judge the quality of the system by estimating the probability of failure. If this is done by a sampling technique such as Monte Carlo and the probability of failure is small, accurate approximation can require so many sample points that the computational expense is prohibitive. Previous work of the authors has shown how to bound the failure event by sets of such simple geometry that their probabilities can be calculated analytically. In this paper, it is shown how to make use of these failure bounding sets and conditional sampling within them to substantially reduce the computational burden of approximating failure probability. It is also shown how the use of these sampling techniques improves the confidence intervals for the failure probability estimate for a given number of sample points and how they reduce the number of sample point analyses needed to achieve a given level of confidence.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
With purpose of development of the PGNAA system which can operate on the field in the condition of considerably changing of temperature and moisture, a multi channel analyzer-MCA 2k was designed and developed, which can compatibly operate with BGO detector, connected with computer through USB 2.0 port. Beside that, a software for obtaining and displaying the prompt gamma spectrum, with the spectrum stability function and convenience in the data was also designed and developed. The first generation PGNAA system was experimented in the changing condition of temperature in the laboratory. The result give out that the prompt gamma spectrum was stability during temperature changing, the peak area of the elements in the samples changed about 7%. Besides that, the first generation PGNAA system was also experimented to analyze the cement and bauxite samples. The result was also matched with the other analysis methods such as chemistry method and INAA method with the difference about 10%. (author)
Propensity, Probability, and Quantum Theory
Ballentine, Leslie E.
2016-08-01
Quantum mechanics and probability theory share one peculiarity. Both have well established mathematical formalisms, yet both are subject to controversy about the meaning and interpretation of their basic concepts. Since probability plays a fundamental role in QM, the conceptual problems of one theory can affect the other. We first classify the interpretations of probability into three major classes: (a) inferential probability, (b) ensemble probability, and (c) propensity. Class (a) is the basis of inductive logic; (b) deals with the frequencies of events in repeatable experiments; (c) describes a form of causality that is weaker than determinism. An important, but neglected, paper by P. Humphreys demonstrated that propensity must differ mathematically, as well as conceptually, from probability, but he did not develop a theory of propensity. Such a theory is developed in this paper. Propensity theory shares many, but not all, of the axioms of probability theory. As a consequence, propensity supports the Law of Large Numbers from probability theory, but does not support Bayes theorem. Although there are particular problems within QM to which any of the classes of probability may be applied, it is argued that the intrinsic quantum probabilities (calculated from a state vector or density matrix) are most naturally interpreted as quantum propensities. This does not alter the familiar statistical interpretation of QM. But the interpretation of quantum states as representing knowledge is untenable. Examples show that a density matrix fails to represent knowledge.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
The maximum dose of ionizing radiation from the geological disposal of TRU wastes will likely be controlled by poorly sorbing soluble radionuclides, such as I-129. Proposed repository designs for the geological disposal of TRU wastes envisage the use of an engineered barrier composed of a bentonite buffer to limit the migration of such radionuclides by impeding groundwater flow. Cementitious materials will inevitably be used for waste packaging, infilling and adding structural integrity to the repository. Using cementitious materials, however, is problematic because they produce highly alkaline leachates which have the potential to cause a complex series of coupled changes in the porewater chemistry, mineralogy and, ultimately, the mass transport properties of the bentonite buffer. To elucidate the consequences of these coupled changes, reactive-transport model analyses have been conducted for bentonite alteration test cases with the use of different combinations of secondary minerals that will likely form in the bentonite buffer. A dissolution rate equation of smectite (a key component of bentonite) applicable to pH 7-13 and 25-80degC was proposed and used in the reactive-transport model analyses. It was found that the amount of dissolved smectite at the center of the bentonite buffer was smaller and those in the vicinity of the cement interface was larger when thermodynamically metastable secondary minerals mainly precipitated as compared with the precipitation of stable phases. The calculated temporal and spatial changes of kinetic smectite dissolution were interpreted as a consequence of the changes in Gibbs free energy and porewater chemistry. Furthermore, the bentonite porewater chemistry was also affected by the stoichiometry and thermodynamic stability of the secondary minerals and the kinetics of smectite dissolution. Except in the close proximity of the cement interface, it was found that regardless of the choice of secondary minerals, the effective
Applied probability and stochastic processes
Sumita, Ushio
1999-01-01
Applied Probability and Stochastic Processes is an edited work written in honor of Julien Keilson. This volume has attracted a host of scholars in applied probability, who have made major contributions to the field, and have written survey and state-of-the-art papers on a variety of applied probability topics, including, but not limited to: perturbation method, time reversible Markov chains, Poisson processes, Brownian techniques, Bayesian probability, optimal quality control, Markov decision processes, random matrices, queueing theory and a variety of applications of stochastic processes. The book has a mixture of theoretical, algorithmic, and application chapters providing examples of the cutting-edge work that Professor Keilson has done or influenced over the course of his highly-productive and energetic career in applied probability and stochastic processes. The book will be of interest to academic researchers, students, and industrial practitioners who seek to use the mathematics of applied probability i...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Jain, D.K.
1992-01-01
Microbially influenced corrosion (MIC) has been found to play a significant role in causing corrosion, especially in those industries which use natural waters. The most significant of the organisms found to cause corrosion are the sulphate-reducing bacteria (SRB), particularly with anoxic deposits or stagnant weirs. In May 1992, the Bruce Nuclear Generating Station B Vacuum Building was inspected for MIC after being in service for 10 years. This report provides results for both on-site MIC inspection and for microbiological analysis of sediments, water, and slime deposits for evidence of MIC bacteria.
Probabilities of multiple quantum teleportation
Woesler, Richard
2002-01-01
Using quantum teleportation a quantum state can be teleported with a certain probability. Here the probabilities for multiple teleportation are derived, i. e. for the case that a teleported quantum state is teleported again or even more than two times, for the two-dimensional case, e. g., for the two orthogonal direcations of the polarization of photons. It is shown that the probability for an exact teleportation, except for an irrelevant phase factor, is 25 %, i. e., surprisingly, this resul...
Probability and statistics: selected problems
Machado, J.A. Tenreiro; Pinto, Carla M. A.
2014-01-01
Probability and Statistics—Selected Problems is a unique book for senior undergraduate and graduate students to fast review basic materials in Probability and Statistics. Descriptive statistics are presented first, and probability is reviewed secondly. Discrete and continuous distributions are presented. Sample and estimation with hypothesis testing are presented in the last two chapters. The solutions for proposed excises are listed for readers to references.
Free Probability on a Direct Product of Noncommutative Probability Spaces
Cho, Ilwoo
2005-01-01
In this paper, we observevd the amalgamated free probability of direct product of noncommutative probability spaces. We defined the amalgamated R-transforms, amalgamated moment series and the amalgamated boxed convolution. They maks us to do the amalgamated R-transform calculus, like the scalar-valued case.
Gangopadhyay, Nirupama; Wynne, Kieran; O'Connor, Paula; Gallagher, Eimear; Brunton, Nigel P; Rai, Dilip K; Hayes, Maria
2016-07-15
Angiotensin-I-converting enzyme (ACE-I) plays a key role in control of hypertension, and type-2 diabetes mellitus, which frequently co-exist. Our current work utilised in silico methodologies and peptide databases as tools for predicting release of ACE-I inhibitory peptides from barley proteins. Papain was the enzyme of choice, based on in silico analysis, for experimental hydrolysis of barley protein concentrate, which was performed at the enzyme's optimum conditions (60 °C, pH 6.0) for 24 h. The generated hydrolysate was subjected to molecular weight cut-off (MWCO) filtration, following which the non-ultrafiltered hydrolysate (NUFH), and the generated 3 kDa and 10 kDa MWCO filtrates were assessed for their in vitro ACE-I inhibitory activities. The 3 kDa filtrate (1 mg/ml), that demonstrated highest ACE-I inhibitory activity of 70.37%, was characterised in terms of its peptidic composition using mass spectrometry and 1882 peptides derived from 61 barley proteins were identified, amongst which 15 peptides were selected for chemical synthesis based on their predicted ACE-I inhibitory properties. Of the synthesized peptides, FQLPKF and GFPTLKIF were most potent, demonstrating ACE-I IC50 values of 28.2 μM and 41.2 μM respectively. PMID:26948626
Kandler, Anne; Shennan, Stephen
2015-12-01
Cultural change can be quantified by temporal changes in frequency of different cultural artefacts and it is a central question to identify what underlying cultural transmission processes could have caused the observed frequency changes. Observed changes, however, often describe the dynamics in samples of the population of artefacts, whereas transmission processes act on the whole population. Here we develop a modelling framework aimed at addressing this inference problem. To do so, we firstly generate population structures from which the observed sample could have been drawn randomly and then determine theoretical samples at a later time t2 produced under the assumption that changes in frequencies are caused by a specific transmission process. Thereby we also account for the potential effect of time-averaging processes in the generation of the observed sample. Subsequent statistical comparisons (e.g. using Bayesian inference) of the theoretical and observed samples at t2 can establish which processes could have produced the observed frequency data. In this way, we infer underlying transmission processes directly from available data without any equilibrium assumption. We apply this framework to a dataset describing pottery from settlements of some of the first farmers in Europe (the LBK culture) and conclude that the observed frequency dynamic of different types of decorated pottery is consistent with age-dependent selection, a preference for 'young' pottery types which is potentially indicative of fashion trends. PMID:26674195
de Brevern, Alexandre G.; Meyniel, Jean-Philippe; Fairhead, Cécile; Neuvéglise, Cécile; Malpertuy, Alain
2015-01-01
Sequencing the human genome began in 1994, and 10 years of work were necessary in order to provide a nearly complete sequence. Nowadays, NGS technologies allow sequencing of a whole human genome in a few days. This deluge of data challenges scientists in many ways, as they are faced with data management issues and analysis and visualization drawbacks due to the limitations of current bioinformatics tools. In this paper, we describe how the NGS Big Data revolution changes the way of managing and analysing data. We present how biologists are confronted with abundance of methods, tools, and data formats. To overcome these problems, focus on Big Data Information Technology innovations from web and business intelligence. We underline the interest of NoSQL databases, which are much more efficient than relational databases. Since Big Data leads to the loss of interactivity with data during analysis due to high processing time, we describe solutions from the Business Intelligence that allow one to regain interactivity whatever the volume of data is. We illustrate this point with a focus on the Amadea platform. Finally, we discuss visualization challenges posed by Big Data and present the latest innovations with JavaScript graphic libraries. PMID:26125026
Expected utility with lower probabilities
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hendon, Ebbe; Jacobsen, Hans Jørgen; Sloth, Birgitte;
1994-01-01
An uncertain and not just risky situation may be modeled using so-called belief functions assigning lower probabilities to subsets of outcomes. In this article we extend the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory from probability measures to belief functions. We use this theory to...
Probability theory and its models
Humphreys, Paul
2008-01-01
This paper argues for the status of formal probability theory as a mathematical, rather than a scientific, theory. David Freedman and Philip Stark's concept of model based probabilities is examined and is used as a bridge between the formal theory and applications.
Decision analysis with approximate probabilities
Whalen, Thomas
1992-01-01
This paper concerns decisions under uncertainty in which the probabilities of the states of nature are only approximately known. Decision problems involving three states of nature are studied. This is due to the fact that some key issues do not arise in two-state problems, while probability spaces with more than three states of nature are essentially impossible to graph. The primary focus is on two levels of probabilistic information. In one level, the three probabilities are separately rounded to the nearest tenth. This can lead to sets of rounded probabilities which add up to 0.9, 1.0, or 1.1. In the other level, probabilities are rounded to the nearest tenth in such a way that the rounded probabilities are forced to sum to 1.0. For comparison, six additional levels of probabilistic information, previously analyzed, were also included in the present analysis. A simulation experiment compared four criteria for decisionmaking using linearly constrained probabilities (Maximin, Midpoint, Standard Laplace, and Extended Laplace) under the eight different levels of information about probability. The Extended Laplace criterion, which uses a second order maximum entropy principle, performed best overall.
A graduate course in probability
Tucker, Howard G
2014-01-01
Suitable for a graduate course in analytic probability, this text requires only a limited background in real analysis. Topics include probability spaces and distributions, stochastic independence, basic limiting options, strong limit theorems for independent random variables, central limit theorem, conditional expectation and Martingale theory, and an introduction to stochastic processes.
Pretest probability assessment derived from attribute matching
Hollander Judd E; Diercks Deborah B; Pollack Charles V; Johnson Charles L; Kline Jeffrey A; Newgard Craig D; Garvey J Lee
2005-01-01
Abstract Background Pretest probability (PTP) assessment plays a central role in diagnosis. This report compares a novel attribute-matching method to generate a PTP for acute coronary syndrome (ACS). We compare the new method with a validated logistic regression equation (LRE). Methods Eight clinical variables (attributes) were chosen by classification and regression tree analysis of a prospectively collected reference database of 14,796 emergency department (ED) patients evaluated for possib...
Subjective probability models for lifetimes
Spizzichino, Fabio
2001-01-01
Bayesian methods in reliability cannot be fully utilized and understood without full comprehension of the essential differences that exist between frequentist probability and subjective probability. Switching from the frequentist to the subjective approach requires that some fundamental concepts be rethought and suitably redefined. Subjective Probability Models for Lifetimes details those differences and clarifies aspects of subjective probability that have a direct influence on modeling and drawing inference from failure and survival data. In particular, within a framework of Bayesian theory, the author considers the effects of different levels of information in the analysis of the phenomena of positive and negative aging.The author coherently reviews and compares the various definitions and results concerning stochastic ordering, statistical dependence, reliability, and decision theory. He offers a detailed but accessible mathematical treatment of different aspects of probability distributions for exchangea...
Invariant probabilities of transition functions
Zaharopol, Radu
2014-01-01
The structure of the set of all the invariant probabilities and the structure of various types of individual invariant probabilities of a transition function are two topics of significant interest in the theory of transition functions, and are studied in this book. The results obtained are useful in ergodic theory and the theory of dynamical systems, which, in turn, can be applied in various other areas (like number theory). They are illustrated using transition functions defined by flows, semiflows, and one-parameter convolution semigroups of probability measures. In this book, all results on transition probabilities that have been published by the author between 2004 and 2008 are extended to transition functions. The proofs of the results obtained are new. For transition functions that satisfy very general conditions the book describes an ergodic decomposition that provides relevant information on the structure of the corresponding set of invariant probabilities. Ergodic decomposition means a splitting of t...
Survival probability and ruin probability of a risk model
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
LUO Jian-hua
2008-01-01
In this paper, a new risk model is studied in which the rate of premium income is regarded as a random variable, the arrival of insurance policies is a Poisson process and the process of claim occurring is p-thinning process. The integral representations of the survival probability are gotten. The explicit formula of the survival probability on the infinite interval is obtained in the special casc--exponential distribution.The Lundberg inequality and the common formula of the ruin probability are gotten in terms of some techniques from martingale theory.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fondeur, F. F.; Fink, S. D.
2011-12-07
A new solvent system referred to as Next Generation Solvent or NGS, has been developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the removal of cesium from alkaline solutions in the Caustic Side Solvent Extraction process. The NGS is proposed for deployment at MCU{sup a} and at the Salt Waste Processing Facility. This work investigated the chemical compatibility between NGS and 16 M, 8 M, and 3 M nitric acid from contact that may occur in handling of analytical samples from MCU or, for 3 M acid, which may occur during contactor cleaning operations at MCU. This work shows that reactions occurred between NGS components and the high molarity nitric acid. Reaction rates are much faster in 8 M and 16 M nitric acid than in 3 M nitric acid. In the case of 16 M and 8 M nitric acid, the nitric acid reacts with the extractant to produce initially organo-nitrate species. The reaction also releases soluble fluorinated alcohols such as tetrafluoropropanol. With longer contact time, the modifier reacts to produce a tarry substance with evolved gases (NO{sub x} and possibly CO). Calorimetric analysis of the reaction product mixtures revealed that the organo-nitrates reaction products are not explosive and will not deflagrate.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
A new solvent system referred to as Next Generation Solvent or NGS, has been developed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory for the removal of cesium from alkaline solutions in the Caustic Side Solvent Extraction process. The NGS is proposed for deployment at MCUa and at the Salt Waste Processing Facility. This work investigated the chemical compatibility between NGS and 16 M, 8 M, and 3 M nitric acid from contact that may occur in handling of analytical samples from MCU or, for 3 M acid, which may occur during contactor cleaning operations at MCU. This work shows that reactions occurred between NGS components and the high molarity nitric acid. Reaction rates are much faster in 8 M and 16 M nitric acid than in 3 M nitric acid. In the case of 16 M and 8 M nitric acid, the nitric acid reacts with the extractant to produce initially organo-nitrate species. The reaction also releases soluble fluorinated alcohols such as tetrafluoropropanol. With longer contact time, the modifier reacts to produce a tarry substance with evolved gases (NOx and possibly CO). Calorimetric analysis of the reaction product mixtures revealed that the organo-nitrates reaction products are not explosive and will not deflagrate
Reliability analysis of reactor systems by applying probability method
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Probability method was chosen for analysing the reactor system reliability is considered realistic since it is based on verified experimental data. In fact this is a statistical method. The probability method developed takes into account the probability distribution of permitted levels of relevant parameters and their particular influence on the reliability of the system as a whole. The proposed method is rather general, and was used for problem of thermal safety analysis of reactor system. This analysis enables to analyze basic properties of the system under different operation conditions, expressed in form of probability they show the reliability of the system on the whole as well as reliability of each component
A priori probabilities of separable quantum states
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zyczkowski, Horodecki, Sanpera and Lewenstein (ZHSL) recently proposed a 'natural measure' on the N-dimensional quantum systems, but expressed surprise when it led them to conclude that for N=2x2, disentangled (separable) systems are more probable (0.632±0.002) in nature than entangled ones. We contend, however, that ZHSL's (rejected) intuition has, in fact, a sound theoretical basis, and that the a priori probability of disentangled 2x2 systems should more properly be viewed as (considerably) less than 0.5. We arrive at this conclusion in two quite distinct ways, the first based on classical and the second, quantum considerations. Both approaches, however, replace (in whole or part) the ZHSL (product) measure by ones based on the volume elements of monotone metrics, which in the classical case amounts to adopting the Jeffreys' prior of Bayesian theory. Only the quantum-theoretic analysis - which yields the smallest probabilities of disentanglement - uses the minimum number of parameters possible, that is N2-1, as opposed to N2+N-1 (although this 'over-parametrization', as recently indicated by Byrd, should be avoidable). However, despite substantial computation, we are not able to obtain precise estimates of these probabilities and the need for additional (possibly supercomputer) analyses is indicated - particularly so for higher-dimensional quantum systems (such as the 2x3 ones, which we also study here). (author)