WorldWideScience

Sample records for air ingress scenarios

  1. CFD Analyses of Air-Ingress Accident for VHTRs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ham, Tae Kyu

    The Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) is one of six proposed Generation-IV concepts for the next generation of nuclear powered plants. The VHTR is advantageous because it is able to operate at very high temperatures, thus producing highly efficient electrical generation and hydrogen production. A critical safety event of the VHTR is a loss-of-coolant accident. This accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a double-ended guillotine break of the cross vessel that connects the reactor vessel and the power conversion unit. Following the depressurization process, the air (i.e., the air and helium mixture) in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core causing an air-ingress event. In the event of air-ingress into the reactor core, the high-temperature in-core graphite structures will chemically react with the air and could lose their structural integrity. We designed a 1/8th scaled-down test facility to develop an experimental database for studying the mechanisms involved in the air-ingress phenomenon. The current research focuses on the analysis of the air-ingress phenomenon using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool ANSYS FLUENT for better understanding of the air-ingress phenomenon. The anticipated key steps in the air-ingress scenario for guillotine break of VHTR cross vessel are: 1) depressurization; 2) density-driven stratified flow; 3) local hot plenum natural circulation; 4) diffusion into the reactor core; and 5) global natural circulation. However, the OSU air-ingress test facility covers the time from depressurization to local hot plenum natural circulation. Prior to beginning the CFD simulations for the OSU air-ingress test facility, benchmark studies for the mechanisms which are related to the air-ingress accident, were performed to decide the appropriate physical models for the accident analysis. In addition, preliminary experiments were performed with a simplified 1/30th scaled down acrylic set-up to understand the air-ingress

  2. Air ingression calculations for selected plant transients using MELCOR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kmetyk, L.N.

    1994-01-01

    Two sets of MELCOR calculations have been completed studying the effects of air ingression on the consequences of various severe accident scenarios. One set of calculations analyzed a station blackout with surge line failure prior to vessel breach, starting from nominal operating conditions; the other set of calculations analyzed a station blackout occurring during shutdown (refueling) conditions. Both sets of analyses were for the Surry plant, a three-loop Westinghouse PWR. For both accident scenarios, a basecase calculation was done, and then repeated with air ingression from containment into the core region following core degradation and vessel failure. In addition to the two sets of analyses done for this program, a similar air-ingression sensitivity study was done as part of a low-power/shutdown PRA, with results summarized here; that PRA study also analyzed a station blackout occurring during shutdown (refueling) conditions, but for the Grand Gulf plant, a BWR/6 with Mark III containment. These studies help quantify the amount of air that would have to enter the core region to have a significant impact on the severe accident scenario, and demonstrate that one effect, of air ingression is substantial enhancement of ruthenium release. These calculations also show that, while the core clad temperatures rise more quickly due to oxidation with air rather than steam, the core also degrades and relocates more quickly, so that no sustained, enhanced core heatup is predicted to occur with air ingression

  3. Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung Soo

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. ► Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. ► These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. ► In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts for proof of these principles. Results indicate that both concepts can effectively suppress air

  4. Conceptual study on air ingress mitigation for VHTRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oh, Chang H., E-mail: Chang.Oh@inl.gov [Idaho National Laboratory, P.O. Box 1625, Idaho Falls, ID 83415-3870 (United States); Kim, Eung Soo [Department of Nuclear Engineering, Seoul National University, 559 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-09-15

    Highlights: Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Important factors that affect air-ingress process in the VHTRs were investigated and identified. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer Two air ingress mitigation concepts were developed using a root-cause analysis. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer These concepts were validated using computational fluid dynamic method. Black-Right-Pointing-Pointer In-vessel helium injection and ex-vessel enclosure concept will mitigate air-ingress effectively. - Abstract: An air ingress accident following a postulated pipe break is considered a critical event for a very high temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) safety. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that air will enter the core through the break leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structures. Under extreme circumstances and without mitigation features this accident may lead to exothermic chemical reactions between graphite and oxygen depending on the accident scenario and the design. Under extreme circumstances (beyond design basis), a loss of structural integrity may occur in some core structures and lead to elevated release of radiological inventory for the fuel matrix. This paper discusses various air ingress mitigation concepts applicable for the VHTRs that would prevent core damage even in the most extreme scenarios. The study begins with identifying important factors (or phenomena) associated with the air ingress accident using root-cause analysis. By preventing main causes of the important events identified in the root-cause diagram, the basic air ingress mitigation ideas were conceived and developed. Among them, two concepts were finally evaluated as effective candidates. One concept is to inject helium directly into the lower plenum (direct in-vessel injection); the other concept is to enclose the reactor with a non-pressure boundary with an opening at the bottom (ex-vessel enclosure). Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods were used to evaluate these concepts

  5. Study of Air Ingress Across the Duct During the Accident Conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hassan, Yassin

    2013-10-01

    The goal of this project is to study the fundamental physical phenomena associated with air ingress in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Air ingress may occur due to a rupture of primary piping and a subsequent breach in the primary pressure boundary in helium-cooled and graphite-moderated VHTRs. Significant air ingress is a concern because it introduces potential to expose the fuel, graphite support rods, and core to a risk of severe graphite oxidation. Two of the most probable air ingress scenarios involve rupture of a control rod or fuel access standpipe, and rupture in the main coolant pipe on the lower part of the reactor pressure vessel. Therefore, establishing a fundamental understanding of air ingress phenomena is critical in order to rationally evaluate safety of existing VHTRs and develop new designs that minimize these risks. But despite this importance, progress toward development these predictive capabilities has been slowed by the complex nature of the underlying phenomena. The combination of inter-diffusion among multiple species, molecular diffusion, natural convection, and complex geometries, as well as the multiple chemical reactions involved, impose significant roadblocks to both modeling and experiment design. The project team will employ a coordinated experimental and computational effort that will help gain a deeper understanding of multiphased air ingress phenomena. This project will enhance advanced modeling and simulation methods, enabling calculation of nuclear power plant transients and accident scenarios with a high degree of confidence. The following are the project tasks: Perform particle image velocimetry measurement of multiphase air ingresses; and, Perform computational fluid dynamics analysis of air ingress phenomena.

  6. Study of Air Ingress Across the Duct During the Accident Conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hassan, Yassin [Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)

    2013-05-06

    The goal of this project is to study the fundamental physical phenomena associated with air ingress in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Air ingress may occur due to a rupture of primary piping and a subsequent breach in the primary pressure boundary in helium-cooled and graphite-moderated VHTRs. Significant air ingress is a concern because it introduces potential to expose the fuel, graphite support rods, and core to a risk of severe graphite oxidation. Two of the most probable air ingress scenarios involve rupture of a control rod or fuel access standpipe, and rupture in the main coolant pipe on the lower part of the reactor pressure vessel. Therefore, establishing a fundamental understanding of air ingress phenomena is critical in order to rationally evaluate safety of existing VHTRs and develop new designs that minimize these risks. But despite this importance, progress toward development these predictive capabilities has been slowed by the complex nature of the underlying phenomena. The combination of inter-diffusion among multiple species, molecular diffusion, natural convection, and complex geometries, as well as the multiple chemical reactions involved, impose significant roadblocks to both modeling and experiment design. The project team will employ a coordinated experimental and computational effort that will help gain a deeper understanding of multiphased air ingress phenomena. This project will enhance advanced modeling and simulation methods, enabling calculation of nuclear power plant transients and accident scenarios with a high degree of confidence. The following are the project tasks: Perform particle image velocimetry measurement of multiphase air ingresses; and, Perform computational fluid dynamics analysis of air ingress phenomena.

  7. AIR INGRESS ANALYSIS: COMPUTATIONAL FLUID DYNAMIC MODELS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim; Richard Schultz; Hans Gougar; David Petti; Hyung S. Kang

    2010-08-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena important during potential scenarios that may occur in very high temperature reactors (VHTRs). Phenomena Identification and Ranking Studies to date have ranked an air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as important with regard to core safety. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation data are a very high priority. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air will enter the core of the High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor through the break, possibly causing oxidation of the in-the core and reflector graphite structure. Simple core and plant models indicate that, under certain circumstances, the oxidation may proceed at an elevated rate with additional heat generated from the oxidation reaction itself. Under postulated conditions of fluid flow and temperature, excessive degradation of the lower plenum graphite can lead to a loss of structural support. Excessive oxidation of core graphite can also lead to the release of fission products into the confinement, which could be detrimental to a reactor safety. Computational fluid dynamic model developed in this study will improve our understanding of this phenomenon. This paper presents two-dimensional and three-dimensional CFD results for the quantitative assessment of the air ingress phenomena. A portion of results of the density-driven stratified flow in the inlet pipe will be compared with results of the experimental results.

  8. Study of air ingress accident of an HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hishida, Makoto

    1995-01-01

    Inherent properties of high temperature gas cooled reactors (HTGR) facilitate the design of HTGRs with high degree of passive safety performances. In this context, it is very important to establish a design criteria for a passive safe function for the air ingress accident. However, it is absolutely necessary to investigate the air ingress behavior during the accident before exploring the design criteria. The present paper briefly describes major activities and results of the air ingress research in our laboratory. (author)

  9. Mitigate Strategy of Very High Temperature Reactor Air-ingress Accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Tae Kyu [KHNP CRI, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Arcilesi, David J.; Sun, Xiaodong; Christensen, Richard N. [The Ohio State University, Columbus (United States); Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung S. [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho (United States)

    2016-10-15

    A critical safety event of the Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) is a loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA). Since a VHTR uses graphite as a core structure, if there is a break on the pressure vessel, the air in the reactor cavity could ingress into the reactor core. The worst case scenario of the accident is initiated by a double-ended guillotine break of the cross vessel that connects the reactor vessel and the power conversion unit. The operating pressures in the vessel and containment are about 7 and 0.1 MPa, respectively. In the VHTR, the reactor pressure vessel is located within a reactor cavity which is filled with air during normal operation. Therefore, the air-helium mixture in the cavity may ingress into the reactor pressure vessel after the depressurization process. In this paper, a commercial computational fluid dynamics (CFD) tool, FLUENT, was used to figure out air-ingress mitigation strategies in the gas-turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR) designed by General Atomics, Inc. After depressurization, there is almost no air in the reactor cavity; however, the air could flow back to the reactor cavity since the reactor cavity is placed in the lowest place in the reactor building. The heavier air could flow to the reactor cavity through free surface areas in the reactor building. Therefore, Argon gas injection in the reactor cavity is introduced. The injected argon would prevent the flow by pressurizing the reactor cavity initially, and eventually it prevents the flow by making the gas a heavier density than air in the reactor cavity. The gate opens when the reactor cavity is pressurized during the depressurization and it closes by gravity when the depressurization is terminated so that it can slow down the air flow to the reactor cavity.

  10. Investigation of Countercurrent Helium-Air Flows in Air-ingress Accidents for VHTRs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Xiaodong; Christensen, Richard; Oh, Chang

    2013-10-03

    The primary objective of this research is to develop an extensive experimental database for the air- ingress phenomenon for the validation of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analyses. This research is intended to be a separate-effects experimental study. However, the project team will perform a careful scaling analysis prior to designing a scaled-down test facility in order to closely tie this research with the real application. As a reference design in this study, the team will use the 600 MWth gas turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR) developed by General Atomic. In the test matrix of the experiments, researchers will vary the temperature and pressure of the helium— along with break size, location, shape, and orientation—to simulate deferent scenarios and to identify potential mitigation strategies. Under support of the Department of Energy, a high-temperature helium test facility has been designed and is currently being constructed at Ohio State University, primarily for high- temperature compact heat exchanger testing for the VHTR program. Once the facility is in operation (expected April 2009), this study will utilize high-temperature helium up to 900°C and 3 MPa for loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) depressurization and air-ingress experiments. The project team will first conduct a scaling study and then design an air-ingress test facility. The major parameter to be measured in the experiments is oxygen (or nitrogen) concentration history at various locations following a LOCA scenario. The team will use two measurement techniques: 1) oxygen (or similar type) sensors employed in the flow field, which will introduce some undesirable intrusiveness, disturbing the flow, and 2) a planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) imaging technique, which has no physical intrusiveness to the flow but requires a transparent window or test section that the laser beam can penetrate. The team will construct two test facilities, one for high-temperature helium tests with

  11. Experimental study on fundamental phenomena in HTGR small break air-ingress accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jae Soon; Hwang, Jin-Seok; Kim, Eung Soo; Kim, Byung Jun; Oh, Chang Ho

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Air-ingress phenomena on the small break in a HTGR are experimentally investigated. • Experiment is investigated for various break sizes, angles, and density ratios. • Maximum air-ingress rate is observed at 120° in break angle. • This study reveals that air-ingress in the small break is governed by; buoyancy and flow inertia. • A non-dimensional parameter is newly proposed to determine the air-ingress flow regimes. • Newly proposed parameter is based on buoyancy versus inertia force. - Abstract: This study experimentally investigates fundamental phenomena in the HTGR small break air-ingress accident. Several important parameters including density ratio, break angle, break size, and main flow velocity are considered in the measurement and the analysis. The test-section is made of a circular pipe with small holes drilled around the surface and it is installed in the helium/air flow circulation loop. Oxygen concentrations and flow rates are recorded during the tests with fixed break angles, break sizes, and flow velocities for measurement of the air-ingress rates. According to the experimental results, the higher density difference leads to the higher rates of air-ingress with large sensitivity of the break angles. It is also found that the break angle significantly affects the air-ingress rates, which is gradually increased from 0° to 120° and suddenly decreased to 180°. The minimum air ingress rate is found at 0° and the maximum, at 110°. The air-ingress rate increases with the break size due to the increased flow-exchange area. However, it is not directly proportional to the break area due to the complexity of the phenomena. The increased flow velocity in the channel inside enhances the air-ingress process. However, among all the parameters, the main flow velocity exhibits the lowest effect on this process. In this study, the Froude Number relevant to the small break air-ingress conditions are newly defined considering both heavy

  12. Cladding oxidation during air ingress. Part II: Synthesis of modelling results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beuzet, E.; Haurais, F.; Bals, C.; Coindreau, O.; Fernandez-Moguel, L.; Vasiliev, A.; Park, S.

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A state-of-the-art for air oxidation modelling in the frame of severe accident is done. • Air oxidation models from main severe accident codes are detailed. • Simulations from main severe accident codes are compared against experimental results. • Perspectives in terms of need for further model development and experiments are given. - Abstract: Air ingress is a potential risk in some low probable situations of severe accidents in a nuclear power plant. Air is a highly oxidizing atmosphere that can lead to an enhanced Zr-based cladding oxidation and core degradation affecting the release of fission products. This is particularly true speaking about ruthenium release, due to its high radiotoxicity and its ability to form highly volatile oxides in a significant manner in presence of air. The oxygen affinity is decreasing from the Zircaloy cladding, fuel and ruthenium inclusions. It is consequently of great need to understand the phenomena governing cladding oxidation by air as a prerequisite for the source term issues in such scenarios. In the past years, many works have been done on cladding oxidation by air under severe accident conditions. This paper with in addition the paper “Cladding oxidation during air ingress – Part I: Synthesis of experimental results” of this journal issue aim at assessing the state of the art on this phenomenon. In this paper, the modelling of air ingress phenomena in the main severe accident codes (ASTEC, ATHLET-CD, MAAP, MELCOR, RELAP/SCDAPSIM, SOCRAT) is described in details, as well as the validation against the integral experiments QUENCH-10, QUENCH-16 and PARAMETER-SF4. A full review of cladding oxidation by air is thus established.

  13. ISOTHERMAL AIR INGRESS VALIDATION EXPERIMENTS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H Oh; Eung S Kim

    2011-09-01

    Idaho National Laboratory carried out air ingress experiments as part of validating computational fluid dynamics (CFD) calculations. An isothermal test loop was designed and set to understand the stratified-flow phenomenon, which is important as the initial air flow into the lower plenum of the very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) when a large break loss-of-coolant accident occurs. The unique flow characteristics were focused on the VHTR air-ingress accident, in particular, the flow visualization of the stratified flow in the inlet pipe to the vessel lower plenum of the General Atomic’s Gas Turbine-Modular Helium Reactor (GT-MHR). Brine and sucrose were used as heavy fluids, and water was used to represent a light fluid, which mimics a counter current flow due to the density difference between the stimulant fluids. The density ratios were changed between 0.87 and 0.98. This experiment clearly showed that a stratified flow between simulant fluids was established even for very small density differences. The CFD calculations were compared with experimental data. A grid sensitivity study on CFD models was also performed using the Richardson extrapolation and the grid convergence index method for the numerical accuracy of CFD calculations . As a result, the calculated current speed showed very good agreement with the experimental data, indicating that the current CFD methods are suitable for predicting density gradient stratified flow phenomena in the air-ingress accident.

  14. Sensitivity studies of air ingress accidents in modular HTGRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ball, Syd; Richards, Matt; Shepelev, Sergey

    2008-01-01

    Postulated air ingress accidents, while of very low probability in a modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR), are of considerable interest to the plant designer, operator, and regulator because of the possibility that the core could sustain significant damage under some circumstances. Sensitivity analyses are described that cover a wide spectrum of conditions affecting outcomes of the postulated accident sequences, for both prismatic and pebble-bed core designs. The major factors affecting potential core damage are the size and location of primary system leaks, flow path resistances, the core temperature distribution, and the long-term availability of oxygen in the incoming gas from a confinement building. Typically, all the incoming oxygen entering the core area is consumed within the reactor vessel, so it is more a matter of where, not whether, oxidation occurs. An air ingress model with example scenarios and means for mitigating damage are described. Representative designs of modular HTGRs included here are a 400-MW(th) pebble-bed reactor (PBR), and a 600-MW(th) prismatic-core modular reactor (PMR) design such as the gas-turbine modular helium reactor (GT-MHR)

  15. Scaling and design analyses of a scaled-down, high-temperature test facility for experimental investigation of the initial stages of a VHTR air-ingress accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Arcilesi, David J.; Ham, Tae Kyu; Kim, In Hun; Sun, Xiaodong; Christensen, Richard N.; Oh, Chang H.

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • A 1/8th geometric-scale test facility that models the VHTR hot plenum is proposed. • Geometric scaling analysis is introduced for VHTR to analyze air-ingress accident. • Design calculations are performed to show that accident phenomenology is preserved. • Some analyses include time scale, hydraulic similarity and power scaling analysis. • Test facility has been constructed and shake-down tests are currently being carried out. - Abstract: A critical event in the safety analysis of the very high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR) is an air-ingress accident. This accident is initiated, in its worst case scenario, by a double-ended guillotine break of the coaxial cross vessel, which leads to a rapid reactor vessel depressurization. In a VHTR, the reactor vessel is located within a reactor cavity that is filled with air during normal operating conditions. Following the vessel depressurization, the dominant mode of ingress of an air–helium mixture into the reactor vessel will either be molecular diffusion or density-driven stratified flow. The mode of ingress is hypothesized to depend largely on the break conditions of the cross vessel. Since the time scales of these two ingress phenomena differ by orders of magnitude, it is imperative to understand under which conditions each of these mechanisms will dominate in the air ingress process. Computer models have been developed to analyze this type of accident scenario. There are, however, limited experimental data available to understand the phenomenology of the air-ingress accident and to validate these models. Therefore, there is a need to design and construct a scaled-down experimental test facility to simulate the air-ingress accident scenarios and to collect experimental data. The current paper focuses on the analyses performed for the design and operation of a 1/8th geometric scale (by height and diameter), high-temperature test facility. A geometric scaling analysis for the VHTR, a time

  16. FINAL REPORT on Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim; Hee C. NO; Nam Z. Cho

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena that are important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Generation IV very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Phenomena Identification and Ranking studies to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification & validation are of very high priority for the NGNP Project. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air ingress will occur through the break, leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. This study indicates that depending on the location and the size of the pipe break, the air ingress phenomena are different. In an effort to estimate the proper safety margin, experimental data and tools, including accurate multidimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model are required. It will also require effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation, eventually. This 3-year project (FY 2008–FY 2010) is focused on various issues related to the VHTR air-ingress accident, including (a) analytical and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow, (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments, (c) experimental study of burn-off in the core bottom structures, (d) structural tests of the oxidized core bottom structures, (e) implementation of advanced models developed during the previous tasks into the GAMMA code, (f) full air ingress and oxidation mitigation analyses, (g) development of core neutronic models, (h) coupling of the core neutronic and thermal hydraulic models, and (i) verification and validation of the coupled models.

  17. FY-09 Report: Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang H. Oh; Eung S. Kim

    2009-12-01

    The Idaho National Laboratory (INL), under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy, is performing research and development that focuses on key phenomena important during potential scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP)/Gen-IV very high temperature reactor (VHTR). Phenomena Identification and Ranking Studies to date have identified that an air ingress event following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization is a very important incident. Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation data are a very high priority for the NGNP Project. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization incident, air will enter the core through the break, leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. If this accident occurs, the oxidation will accelerate heat-up of the bottom reflector and the reactor core and will eventually cause the release of fission products. The potential collapse of the core bottom structures causing the release of CO and fission products is one of the concerns. Therefore, experimental validation with the analytical model and computational fluid dynamic (CFD) model developed in this study is very important. Estimating the proper safety margin will require experimental data and tools, including accurate multidimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model. It will also require effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation. The results from this research will provide crucial inputs to the INL NGNP/VHTR Methods Research and Development project. The second year of this three-year project (FY-08 to FY-10) was focused on (a) the analytical, CFD, and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow; (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments and modeling; (c) experimental study of burn-off in the core bottom structures, (d) implementation of advanced

  18. Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro-Air-Vehicles in Urban Environments Based on Monocular Vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockers, Roland; Bouffard, Patrick; Ma, Jeremy; Matthies, Larry; Tomlin, Claire

    2011-01-01

    Unmanned micro air vehicles (MAVs) will play an important role in future reconnaissance and search and rescue applications. In order to conduct persistent surveillance and to conserve energy, MAVs need the ability to land, and they need the ability to enter (ingress) buildings and other structures to conduct reconnaissance. To be safe and practical under a wide range of environmental conditions, landing and ingress maneuvers must be autonomous, using real-time, onboard sensor feedback. To address these key behaviors, we present a novel method for vision-based autonomous MAV landing and ingress using a single camera for two urban scenarios: landing on an elevated surface, representative of a rooftop, and ingress through a rectangular opening, representative of a door or window. Real-world scenarios will not include special navigation markers, so we rely on tracking arbitrary scene features; however, we do currently exploit planarity of the scene. Our vision system uses a planar homography decomposition to detect navigation targets and to produce approach waypoints as inputs to the vehicle control algorithm. Scene perception, planning, and control run onboard in real-time; at present we obtain aircraft position knowledge from an external motion capture system, but we expect to replace this in the near future with a fully self-contained, onboard, vision-aided state estimation algorithm. We demonstrate autonomous vision-based landing and ingress target detection with two different quadrotor MAV platforms. To our knowledge, this is the first demonstration of onboard, vision-based autonomous landing and ingress algorithms that do not use special purpose scene markers to identify the destination.

  19. Experimental Validation of Stratified Flow Phenomena, Graphite Oxidation, and Mitigation Strategies of Air Ingress Accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang Ho Oh; Eung Soo Kim; Hee Cheon No; Nam Zin Cho

    2008-12-01

    The US Department of Energy is performing research and development (R&D) that focuses on key phenomena that are important during challenging scenarios that may occur in the Next Generation Nuclear Plant (NGNP) Program / GEN-IV Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR). Phenomena identification and ranking studies (PIRT) to date have identified the air ingress event, following on the heels of a VHTR depressurization, as very important (Schultz et al., 2006). Consequently, the development of advanced air ingress-related models and verification and validation (V&V) are very high priority for the NGNP program. Following a loss of coolant and system depressurization, air will enter the core through the break. Air ingress leads to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and fuel. The oxidation will accelerate heat-up of the bottom reflector and the reactor core and will cause the release of fission products eventually. The potential collapse of the bottom reflector because of burn-off and the release of CO lead to serious safety problems. For estimation of the proper safety margin we need experimental data and tools, including accurate multi-dimensional thermal-hydraulic and reactor physics models, a burn-off model, and a fracture model. We also need to develop effective strategies to mitigate the effects of oxidation. The results from this research will provide crucial inputs to the INL NGNP/VHTR Methods R&D project. This project is focused on (a) analytical and experimental study of air ingress caused by density-driven, stratified, countercurrent flow, (b) advanced graphite oxidation experiments, (c) experimental study of burn-off in the bottom reflector, (d) structural tests of the burnt-off bottom reflector, (e) implementation of advanced models developed during the previous tasks into the GAMMA code, (f) full air ingress and oxidation mitigation analyses, (g) development of core neutronic models, (h) coupling of the core neutronic and thermal hydraulic models, and (i

  20. Air ingress behavior during a primary-pipe rupture accident of HTGR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeda, Tetsuaki

    1997-11-01

    The inherent properties of a HTGR facilitates the design with high degree of passive safe performances, compared to other type. However, it is still not clear if the present HTGR can maintain a passive safe function during a primary-pipe rupture accident, or what would be design criteria to guarantee the HTGR with the high degree of passive safe performances during the accident. To investigate safe characteristics, the study has been performed experimentally and analytically on the air ingress behavior during the accident. It was indicated that there are two stages in the accident of the HTGR having a reverse U-shaped channel. In the first stage, an air ingress process limits molecular diffusion and natural circulation of the gas mixture having a very slow velocity. In the second stage, the air ingress process limits the ordinary natural circulation of air throughout the reactor. A numerical calculation code has been developed to analyze thermal-hydraulic behavior during the first stage. This code provides a numerical method for analyzing a transport phenomena in a multi-component gas system by solving one-dimensional basic equations and using a flow network model. It was possible to predict or analyze the air ingress process regarding the density of the gas mixture, concentration of each gas species and duration of the first stage of the accident. It was indicated that the safe characteristics of the HTGR from the present experiment as follows. The safety cooling rate that the air ingress process terminates during the first stage exists in the HTGR having the reverse U-shaped channel. Moreover, the ordinary natural circulation of air can not produce in the second stage by injecting helium from the bottom of the pressure vessel corresponding the low-temperature side channel. Therefore, it was found that the idea of helium injection is one of useful methods for the prevention of air ingress and of graphite corrosion in the future HTGRs. (J.P.N.). 74 refs

  1. Computational fluid dynamics analysis of the initial stages of a VHTR air-ingress accident using a scaled-down model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ham, Tae K., E-mail: taekyu8@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arcilesi, David J., E-mail: arcilesi.1@osu.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kim, In H., E-mail: ihkim0730@gmail.com [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Sun, Xiaodong, E-mail: sun.200@osu.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Christensen, Richard N., E-mail: rchristensen@uidaho.edu [Nuclear Engineering Program, The Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Oh, Chang H. [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States); Kim, Eung S., E-mail: kes7741@snu.ac.kr [Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID 83402 (United States)

    2016-04-15

    Highlights: • Uncertainty quantification and benchmark study are performed to validate an ANSYS FLUENT computer model for a depressurization process in a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor. • An ANSYS FLUENT computer model of a 1/8th scaled-down geometry of a VHTR hot exit plenum is presented, which is similar to the experimental test facility that has been constructed at The Ohio State University. • Using the computer model of the scaled-down geometry, the effects of the depressurization process and flow oscillations on the subsequent density-driven stratified flow phenomenology are examined computationally. • The effects of the scaled-down hot exit plenum internal structure temperature on the density-driven stratified flow phenomenology are investigated numerically. - Abstract: An air-ingress accident is considered to be one of the design basis accidents of a very high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (VHTR). The air-ingress accident is initiated, in its worst-case scenario, by a complete break of the hot duct in what is referred to as a double-ended guillotine break. This leads to an initial loss of the primary helium coolant via depressurization. Following the depressurization process, the air–helium mixture in the reactor cavity could enter the reactor core via the hot duct and hot exit plenum. In the event that air ingresses into the reactor vessel, the high-temperature graphite structures in the reactor core and hot plenum will chemically react with the air, which could lead to damage of in-core graphite structures and fuel, release of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide, core heat up, failure of the structural integrity of the system, and eventually the release of radionuclides to the environment. Studies in the available literature focus on the phenomena of the air ingress accident that occur after the termination of the depressurization, such as density-driven stratified flow, molecular diffusion, and natural circulation. However, a recent study

  2. Hypothetical air ingress scenarios in advanced modular high temperature gas cooled reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kroeger, P.G.

    1988-01-01

    Considering an extremely hypothetical scenario of complete cross duct failure and unlimited air supply into the reactor vessel of a modular high temperature gas cooled ractor, it is found that the potential air inflow remains limited due to the high friction pressure drop through the active core. All incoming air will be oxidized to CO and some local external burning would be temporarily possible in such a scenario. The accident would have to continue with unlimited air supply for hundreds of hours before the core structural integrity would be jeopardized

  3. Studies on air ingress for pebble bed reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moore, R.L.; Oh, C.H.; Merrill, B.J.; Petti, D.A.

    2002-01-01

    A loss-of-coolant accident (LOCA) has been considered a critical event for helium-cooled pebbled bed reactors. Following helium depressurization, it is anticipated that unless countermeasures are taken air will enter the core through the break and then by molecular diffusion and ultimately by natural convection leading to oxidation of the in-core graphite structure and graphite pebbles. Thus, without any mitigating features a LOCA will lead to an air ingress event. The INEEL is studying such an event with two well-respected light water reactor transient response codes: RELAP5/ATHENA and MELCOR. To study the degree of graphite oxidation occurring due to an air ingress event, a MELCOR model of a reference pebble bed design was constructed. A modified version of MELCOR developed at INEEL, which includes graphite oxidation capabilities, and molecular diffusion of air into helium was used for these calculations. Results show that the lower reflector graphite consumes all of the oxygen before reaching the core. The results also show a long time delay between the time that the depressurization phase of the accident is over and the time that natural circulation air through the core occurs. (author)

  4. Aspects of water and air ingress accidents in HTRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wolters, J.

    1981-01-01

    The work has contributed towards improving the understanding of the processes taking place during water and air ingress accidents. The favourable design features of the THTR limit the pressure build-up in the primary circuit to values below critical values in water ingress accidents even when the source of water is not identified and shut-off. A pressure reduction by safety valves is in this case not necessary so that the accident consequences remain confined in the primary circuit. The expected air ingress rates following a depressurization accident through an opening in the top head of the PCRV are extremely small in the case of complete integration of the primary circuit in the PCRV. The chemical processes in the primary circuit remain so limited that no danger for the fuel elements and the containment exists. The often feared ''graphite fire'' can be excluded even in the case when the circulators of the after-heat removal systems take in a high percentage of containment atmosphere. The core is cooled down safely

  5. CFD investigating the air ingress accident for a HTGR simulation of graphite corrosion oxidation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferng, Y.M.; Chi, C.W.

    2012-01-01

    Highlights: ► A CFD model is proposed to investigate graphite oxidation corrosion in the HTR-10. ► A postulated air ingress accident is assumed in this paper. ► Air ingress flowrate is the predicted result, instead of the preset one. ► O 2 would react with graphite on pebble surface, causing the graphite corrosion. ► No fuel exposure is predicted to be occurred under the air ingress accident. - Abstract: Through a compressible multi-component CFD model, this paper investigates the characteristics of graphite oxidation corrosion in the HTR-10 core under the postulated accident of gas duct rupture. In this accident, air in the steam generator cavity would enter into the core after pressure equilibrium is achieved between the core and the cavity, which is also called as the air ingress accident. Oxygen in the air would react with graphite on pebble surface, subsequently resulting in oxidation corrosion and challenging fuel integrity. In this paper, characteristics of graphite oxidation corrosion during the air ingress accident can be reasonably captured, including distributions of graphite corrosion amount on the different cross-sections, time histories of local corrosion amount at the monitoring points and overall corrosion amount in the core, respectively. Based on the transient simulation results, the corrosion pattern and its corrosion rate would approach to the steady-state conditions as the accident continuously progresses. The total amount of graphite corrosion during a 3-day accident time is predicted to be about 31 kg with the predicted asymptotic corrosion rate. This predicted value is less than that from the previous work of Gao and Shi.

  6. Feasibility study on naturally safe HTGR (NSHTR) for air ingress accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ohashi, Hirofumi, E-mail: ohashi.hirofumi@jaea.go.jp; Sato, Hiroyuki; Tachibana, Yukio; Kunitomi, Kazuhiko; Ogawa, Masuro

    2014-05-01

    A new design activity for an advanced reactor, referred to as a naturally safe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (NSHTR), has been launched by authors after the accident at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station. The concept of NSHTR is that the release of radioactive materials is kept at very low level and no harmful effect on people and the environment is ensured by only physical phenomena even in the absence of engineered safety features. At an air ingress accident, possible physical events that lead to the loss or degradation of the confinement function of the fuel-coating layers are the crack of the coatings caused by the explosion of carbon monoxide (CO) produced by the graphite oxidation and failure of the coatings by melting or sublimation caused by core heat up due to the reaction heat of the graphite oxidation. In this study, the CO concentration and the heat generated by graphite oxidation inside the circular tube were evaluated parametrically using a steady-state one-dimensional model to confirm the feasibility of NSHTR at a severe condition of the air ingress accident (i.e., a massive air ingress by simultaneous rupture of two primary pipes). It was confirmed that the CO concentration at the outlet of coolant channel can be maintained below the explosion limit due to the reaction with oxygen in the air, and the reaction heat can be removed with the decay heat by physical phenomena under certain conditions of the coolant channel geometry without any engineered safety features. The results revealed that the design of NSHTR is technically feasible in terms of the suppression of the CO explosion and the heat removal of the reaction heat at the air ingress accident.

  7. Air ingress accidents in tokamaks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, A.V.; Roccok, P.

    1989-01-01

    Accidents are considered consisting in a breach in the vacuum wall of a fusion reactor, the ingress of air into the torus and the mobilization and expulsion of activated eroded-sputtered material. Previous evaluations on NET, assuming bare plasma-facing components, have been reviewed and new estimates of the rate of material discharge and of the total fraction of discharged material are calculated, including resettlement processes. The case of graphite-tiled walls, without and with combustion, is also examined. Radiological evaluations are then performed to assess the hazard posed by the discharged material both within the NET building and outside it. (author). 14 refs.; 4 figs.; 3 tabs

  8. Separate-effects experiments on the hydrodynamics of air ingress phenomena for the very high temperature reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, S.; Talley, J.; Yadav, M.; Ireland, A.; Bajorek, S.

    2011-01-01

    The present study performs scaled separate-effects experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics in the air-ingress phenomena following a Depressurized Condition Cooldown in the Very High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor. First, a scoping experiment using water and brine is performed. The volumetric exchange rate is measured using a hydrometer, and flow visualizations are performed. Next, Helium-air experiments are performed to obtain three-dimensional oxygen concentration transient data using an oxygen analyzer. It is found that there exists a critical density difference ratio, before which the ingress rate increases linearly with time and after which the ingress rate slows down significantly. In both the water-brine and Helium-air experiments, this critical ratio is found to be approximately 0.7. (author)

  9. Separate-effects experiments on the hydrodynamics of air ingress phenomena for the very high temperature reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, S.; Talley, J.; Yadav, M., E-mail: skim@psu.edu [The Pennsylvania State Univ., University Park, Pennsylvania (United States); Ireland, A.; Bajorek, S. [The United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington DC (United States)

    2011-07-01

    The present study performs scaled separate-effects experiments to investigate the hydrodynamics in the air-ingress phenomena following a Depressurized Condition Cooldown in the Very High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor. First, a scoping experiment using water and brine is performed. The volumetric exchange rate is measured using a hydrometer, and flow visualizations are performed. Next, Helium-air experiments are performed to obtain three-dimensional oxygen concentration transient data using an oxygen analyzer. It is found that there exists a critical density difference ratio, before which the ingress rate increases linearly with time and after which the ingress rate slows down significantly. In both the water-brine and Helium-air experiments, this critical ratio is found to be approximately 0.7. (author)

  10. SARNET2 benchmark on air ingress experiments QUENCH-10, -16

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez-Moguel, Leticia; Bals, Christine; Beuzet, Emilie; Bratfisch, Christian; Coindreau, Olivia; Hózer, Zoltan; Stuckert, Juri; Vasiliev, Alexander; Vryashkova, Petya

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Two similar QUENCH air ingress experiments were analysed with eight different codes. • Eight institutions have participated in the study. • Differences in the code were mostly small to moderate during the pre-oxidation. • Differences in the code were larger during the air phase. • Study has proven that there are physical processes that should be further studied. - Abstract: The QUENCH-10 (Q-10) and QUENCH-16 (Q-16) experiments were chosen as a SARNET2 code benchmark (SARNET2-COOL-D5.4) exercise to assess the status of modelling air ingress sequences and to compare the capabilities of the various codes used for accident analyses, specifically ATHLET-CD (GRS and RUB), ICARE-CATHARE (IRSN), MAAP (EDF), MELCOR (INRNE and PSI), SOCRAT (IBRAE), and RELAP/SCDAPSim (PSI). Both experiments addressed air ingress into an overheated core following earlier partial oxidation in steam. Q-10 was performed with extensive preoxidation, moderate/high air flow rate and high temperatures at onset of reflood (max T pct = 2200 K), while Q-16 was performed with limited preoxidation, low air flow rate and relative low temperatures at reflood initiation (max T pct = 1870 K). Variables relating to the major signatures (thermal response, hydrogen generation, oxide layer development, oxygen and nitrogen consumption and reflood behaviour) were compared globally and/or at selected locations. In each simulation, the same input models and assumptions are used for both experiments, differing only in respect of the boundary conditions. However, some slight idealisations were made to the assumed boundary conditions in order to avoid ambiguities in the code-to-code comparisons; in this way, it was possible to focus more easily on the key phenomena and hence make the results of the exercise more transparent. Remarks are made concerning the capability of physical modelling within the codes, description of the experiment facility and test conduct as specified in the code input

  11. Study air ingress into the reactor vessel using ICARE/CATHARE V2.0 in case of severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gwenaelle Le Dantec; Fichot, F.

    2005-01-01

    Full text of publication follows: Safety analyses show that core degradation during a severe reactor accident would not be uniform. This was confirmed by TMI2 examinations. In fact, a central region of the core may overheat, melt and flow down to the lower plenum of the reactor while peripheral regions of the core would remain almost intact. Following rupture of the vessel by molten debris, air may be drawn from the containment by natural convection into the reactor coolant system, and react with the intact rods. Studying air ingress into the reactor vessel is of interest because the interaction of air with Zircaloy cladding can strongly affect the evolution of severe accident scenarios. The main effects are heat generation, increasing clad degradation, fission product release and nitriding. In case of air/steam recirculation in the vessel, significant nitriding of cladding can occur. The resulting ZrN phase is characterized by its brittleness and instability under oxidizing conditions, Oxidation of pre-existing ZrN phase layers has been observed to result in violent oxidation and heat release. Therefore, the first consequence for safety is a risk of strong deflagration in the vessel if a large number of rods on which a substantial layer of ZrN has grown are suddenly in contact with oxygen or steam. The second consequence is a late melting of core materials due to the very exothermic oxidation, leading to a late release of materials out of the reactor pressure vessel (RPV). In this paper we present an ICARE/CATHARE V2.0 calculation simulating air ingress into the vessel and in particular to describe the nitriding due to natural convection in the reactor vessel. The basic modeling and the necessary extensions of both ICARE and CATHARE are explained. The natural circulation is calculated to predict the regions of oxygen starvation where nitriding takes place. Key words: air ingress, nitriding, ICARE/CATHARE V2.0. (authors)

  12. Air ingress and graphite burning in HTRs: A survey on analytical examinations performed with the code React/Thermix

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moormann, R.

    1995-05-01

    Analyses on air ingress in the pebble bed reactors PNP-500, THTR-300, HTR-Modul, AVR-II and AVR process heat plant are outlined; in addition, some results for the VHTR with block type fuel are given. Air ingress requires primary circuit depressurization and large leak(s) to reactor buildings and environment and belongs therefore to highly hypothetical events in the sense of classical safety analysis. One accident class examined is air ingress with forced flow by emergency cooling: For this case, the range of mass flow/air content in cooling gas has been evaluated, in which safe core cool down is possible resp. long term core burning occurs; for highest available emergency cooling flow, a safe cool down of the THTR-300, which has no reactor building, is possible for up to 20 vol-% of air in the cooling gas, wheras low flow allows only for about 5 vol-%. If the amount of available air is restricted to the content of a reactor building, as is examined for the PNP-500, relevant consequences have not to be expected; this remains also true for forced convection flow, if burning of CO, formed by graphite oxidation, within the building is considered. For the second accident class examined, air ingress with natural convection flow by chimney draught as studied for the HTR-Modul and some other concepts, the time span until significant fission product release begins has been determined; in case, that the bottom reflector is hot at accident start (> 600 C) and therefore consumes most of the ingressing oxygen, this time span is at least several hours and leak tightening counter measures may be possible. (orig./HP)

  13. Modeling of the consequences of an air ingress in the vessel on the source term calculation in a severe accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Beuzet, E.

    2010-01-01

    This work deals with severe accidents in nuclear power plants with an air ingress in the vessel. Air, which is very oxidizing, enhances noticeably ruthenium release, due to a high fuel oxidation. Oxygen affinity is decreasing between zircaloy cladding, fuel and ruthenium which is released from fuel as volatile and radio-toxic oxides. The main objective was to develop models for cladding and fuel oxidation and ruthenium release and implement them in the severe accident code MAAP. For each phenomenon, the literature study contributes to establish numerical models, validated against specific experiments. Cladding oxidation by air leads to a dense zirconia layer and, after cracking, a porous zirconia. Its modelling was validated against QUENCH-10 (KIT) and PARAMETER-SF4 (LUCH) experiments and 'NUREG' oxide mass gain law was selected as the best current compromise. Ruthenium release is modelled as an instantaneous oxide volatilisation at the fuel surface, controlled by fuel oxidation, which is itself based on a surface reaction assumption. These models were validated against a selected set of VERCORS (CEA) experiments. Ruthenium release is well-reproduced, particularly for air and steam atmospheres. To finish, an accidental scenario with air ingress in the vessel was simulated: a first value was given for the time needed to completely release ruthenium still present in core and was compared to the other studies. This simulation underlines the high ruthenium release under air conditions. (author)

  14. ISOTHERMAL AIR INGRESS VALIDATION EXPERIMENTS AT IDAHO NATIONAL LABORATORY: DESCRIPTION AND SUMMARY OF DATA

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oh, Chang H.; Kim, Eung S.

    2010-01-01

    Idaho National Laboratory performed air ingress experiments as part of validating computational fluid dynamics code (CFD). An isothermal stratified flow experiment was designed and set to understand stratified flow phenomena in the very high temperature gas cooled reactor (VHTR) and to provide experimental data for validating computer codes. The isothermal experiment focused on three flow characteristics unique in the VHTR air-ingress accident: stratified flow in the horizontal pipe, stratified flow expansion at the pipe and vessel junction, and stratified flow around supporting structures. Brine and sucrose were used as heavy fluids and water was used as light fluids. The density ratios were changed between 0.87 and 0.98. This experiment clearly showed that a stratified flow between heavy and light fluids is generated even for very small density differences. The code was validated by conducting blind CFD simulations and comparing the results to the experimental data. A grid sensitivity study was also performed based on the Richardson extrapolation and the grid convergence index method for modeling confidence. As a result, the calculated current speed showed very good agreement with the experimental data, indicating that the current CFD methods are suitable for predicting density gradient stratified flow phenomena in the air-ingress accident.

  15. Study on air ingress during an early stage of a primary-pipe rupture accident of a high-temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hishida, M.; Takeda, T.

    1991-01-01

    A primary-pipe rupture accident is one of the design-based accidents of the HTTR. As the first step of our final goal of predicting the multicomponent gas flow in a reactor during the early stages of the accident, the present paper aims at studying experimentally and analytically, the basic features of air ingress and gas transportation by transient molecular diffusion and the transient natural convection of a two-component gas mixture. The present paper comprises two main parts. The first part deals with analytical and experimental studies on N 2 ingress (corresponding to air ingress) and gas transportation by molecular diffusion and the one-dimensional natural convection of an He-N 2 two-component gas mixture in a reverse-U-shaped tube. Analytical and experimental results are discussed on the N 2 mole fraction change with time after the simulated pipe rupture and on the initation time of the natural circulation of pure N 2 . The second part deals with a preliminary simulation test of air ingress during the early stages of the accident. The test is performed with a very simple model of the reactor. The experimental results are discussed on the change in mole fraction of air with time and on the initiation time of the natural circulation of pure air. (orig.)

  16. Separate-effect tests on zirconium cladding degradation in air ingress situations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duriez, C. [Institut de Radioprotection et de Surete Nucleaire, IRSN, Direction de Prevention des Accidents Majeurs, Centre de Cadarache, 13115 St Paul Lez Durance (France)], E-mail: christian.duriez@irsn.fr; Steinbrueck, M. [Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, FZK, Institut fuer Materialforschung, Postfach 3640, 76021 Karlsruhe (Germany); Ohai, D.; Meleg, T. [Institute for Nuclear Research, INR, Nuclear Material and Corrosion Department, Pitesti, 115400 Mioveni Arges (Romania); Birchley, J.; Haste, T. [Paul Scherrer Institute, 5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2009-02-15

    In the event of air ingress during a reactor or spent fuel pond low probability accident, the fuel rods will be exposed to air-containing atmospheres at high temperatures. In comparison with steam, the presence of air is expected to result in a more rapid escalation of the accident. A state-of-the-art review performed before SARNET started showed that the existing data on zirconium alloy oxidation in air were scarce. Moreover, the exact role of zirconium nitride on the cladding degradation process was poorly understood. Regarding the cladding behaviour in air + steam or nitrogen-enriched atmospheres (encountered in oxygen-starved conditions), almost no data were available. New experimental programmes comprising small-scale tests have therefore been launched at FZK, IRSN (MOZART programme in the frame of the International Source Term Program-ISTP) and INR. Zircaloy-4 cladding in PWR (FZK, IRSN) and in CANDU (INR) geometry are investigated. On-line kinetic data are obtained on centimetre size tube segments, by thermogravimetry (FZK, IRSN and INR) or by mass spectrometry (FZK). Plugged tubes 15 cm long (FZK) are also investigated. The samples are air-oxidised either in the 'as-received' state, or after pre-oxidation in steam. 'Analytical' tests at constant temperature and gas composition provide basic kinetic data, while more prototypical temperature transients and sequential gas compositions are also investigated. The temperature domains extend from 600 deg. C up to 1500 deg. C. Systematic post-test metallographic inspections are performed. The paper gives a synthesis of the results obtained, comparing them in terms of kinetics and oxide scale structure and composition. A comparative analysis is performed with results of the QUENCH-10 (Q-10) bundle test, which included an air ingress phase. It is shown how the data contribute to a better understanding of the cladding degradation process, especially regarding the role of nitrogen. For modelling of

  17. Separate-effect tests on zirconium cladding degradation in air ingress situations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duriez, C.; Steinbrueck, M.; Ohai, D.; Meleg, T.; Birchley, J.; Haste, T.

    2009-01-01

    In the event of air ingress during a reactor or spent fuel pond low probability accident, the fuel rods will be exposed to air-containing atmospheres at high temperatures. In comparison with steam, the presence of air is expected to result in a more rapid escalation of the accident. A state-of-the-art review performed before SARNET started showed that the existing data on zirconium alloy oxidation in air were scarce. Moreover, the exact role of zirconium nitride on the cladding degradation process was poorly understood. Regarding the cladding behaviour in air + steam or nitrogen-enriched atmospheres (encountered in oxygen-starved conditions), almost no data were available. New experimental programmes comprising small-scale tests have therefore been launched at FZK, IRSN (MOZART programme in the frame of the International Source Term Program-ISTP) and INR. Zircaloy-4 cladding in PWR (FZK, IRSN) and in CANDU (INR) geometry are investigated. On-line kinetic data are obtained on centimetre size tube segments, by thermogravimetry (FZK, IRSN and INR) or by mass spectrometry (FZK). Plugged tubes 15 cm long (FZK) are also investigated. The samples are air-oxidised either in the 'as-received' state, or after pre-oxidation in steam. 'Analytical' tests at constant temperature and gas composition provide basic kinetic data, while more prototypical temperature transients and sequential gas compositions are also investigated. The temperature domains extend from 600 deg. C up to 1500 deg. C. Systematic post-test metallographic inspections are performed. The paper gives a synthesis of the results obtained, comparing them in terms of kinetics and oxide scale structure and composition. A comparative analysis is performed with results of the QUENCH-10 (Q-10) bundle test, which included an air ingress phase. It is shown how the data contribute to a better understanding of the cladding degradation process, especially regarding the role of nitrogen. For modelling of the oxide scale

  18. Analytical support for the preparation of bundle test QUENCH-10 on air ingress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Birchley, J.; Haste, T.; Homann, C.; Hering, W.

    2005-07-01

    Bundle test QUENCH-10 is dedicated to study air ingress with subsequent water quench during a supposed accident in a spent fuel storage tank. It was proposed by AEKI, Budapest, Hungary and was performed on 21 July 2004 in the QUENCH facility at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. Preparation of the test is based on common analytical work at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe and Paul Scherrer Institut, Villigen, Switzerland, mainly with the severe accident codes SCDAP/RELAP5 and MELCOR, to derive the protocol for the essential test phases, namely pre-oxidation, air ingress and quench phase. For issues that could not be tackled by this computational work, suggestions for the test conduct were made and applied during the test. Improvements of the experimental set-up and the test conduct were suggested and largely applied. In SCDAP/RELAP5, an error was found: for thick oxide scales, the output value of the oxide scale is sensibly underestimated. For the aims of the test preparation, its consequences could be taken into account. Together with the related computational and other analytical support by the engaged institutions the test is co-financed as test QUENCH-L1 by the European Community under the Euratom Fifth Framework Programme on Nuclear Fission Safety 1998 - 2002 (LACOMERA Project, contract No. FIR1-CT2002-40158). (orig.)

  19. Experimental study on air ingress during a primary pipe rupture accident with a graphite reactor core simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takeda, Tetsuaki; Hishida, Makoto; Baba, Shinichi

    1991-11-01

    When a primary coolant pipe of a High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTGR) ruptures, helium gas in the reactor core blows out into the container, and the primary cooling system reduces the pressure. After the pressures are balanced between the reactor and the container, air is expected to enter into the reactor core from the breach. It seems to be probable that the graphite structures is oxidized by air. Hence, it is necessary to investigate the air ingress process and the behavior of the generating gases by the oxidation reactions. The previous experimental study is performed on the molecular diffusion and natural convection of the two component gas mixtures using a test model simulating simply the reactor. Objective of the study was to investigate the air ingress process during the early stage of the primary pipe rupture accident. However, since the model did not have any kind of graphite components, the reaction between graphite and oxygen was not simulated. The present model includes the reactor core and the high temperature plenum simulators made of graphite. The major results obtained in the present study are summarized in the followings: (1) The air ingress process with graphite oxidation reaction is similar to that without the reaction qualitatively. (2) When the reactor core simulator is maintained at low temperatures (lower than 450degC), the initiation time of the natural circulation of air is almost equal to that of the natural circulation of nitrogen. On the other hand, when the temperature of the reactor core simulator is high (more than 500degC), the initiation time of the natural circulation of air is earlier than that of nitrogen. (3) When the temperature of the reactor core simulator is higher than 600degC, oxygen is almost dissipated by the graphite structures. When the temperature of the reactor core simulator is below 700degC, carbon dioxide mainly is generated by the oxidation reactions. (author)

  20. Safety analysis results for cryostat ingress accidents in ITER

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merrill, B.J.; Cadwallader, L.C.; Petti, D.A.

    1996-01-01

    Accidents involving the ingress of air or water into the cryostat of the International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor (ITER) tokamak design have been analyzed with a modified version of the MELCOR code for the ITER Non-site Specific Safety Report (NSSR-1). The air ingress accident is the result of a postulated breach of the cryostat boundary into an adjoining room. MELCOR results for this accident demonstrate that the condensed air mass and increased heat loads are not a magnet safety concern, but that the partial vacuum in the adjoining room must be accommodated in the building design. The water ingress accident is the result of a postulated magnet arc that results in melting of a Primary Heat Transport System (PHTS) coolant pipe, discharging PHTS water and PHTS water activated corrosion products and HTO into the cryostat. MELCOR results for this accident demonstrate that the condensed water mass and increased heat loads are not a magnet safety concern, that the cryostat pressure remains below design limits, and that the corrosion product and HTO releases are well within the ITER release limits

  1. Analysis of helium purification system capability during water ingress accident in RDE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriyono; Kusmastuti, Rahayu; Bakhri, Syaiful; Sunaryo, Geni Rina

    2018-02-01

    The water ingress accident caused by steam generator tube rupture (SGTR) in RDE (Experimental Power Reactor) must be anticipated. During the accident, steam from secondary system diffused and mixed with helium gas in the primary coolant. To avoid graphite corrosion in the core, steam will be removed by Helium purification system (HPS). There are two trains in HPS, first train for normal operation and the second for the regeneration and accident. The second train is responsible to clean the coolant during accident condition. The second train is equipped with additional component, i.e. water cooler, post accident blower, and water separator to remove this mixture gas. During water ingress, the water release from rupture tube is mixed with helium gas. The water cooler acts as a steam condenser, where the steam will be separated by water separator from the helium gas. This paper analyses capability of HPS during water ingress accident. The goal of the research is to determine the time consumed by HPS to remove the total amount of water ingress. The method used is modelling and simulation of the HPS by using ChemCAD software. The BDBA and DBA scenarios will be simulated. In BDBA scenario, up to 110 kg of water is assumed to infiltrate to primary coolant while DBA is up to 35 kg. By using ChemCAD simulation, the second train will purify steam ingress maximum in 0.5 hours. The HPS of RDE has a capability to anticipate the water ingress accident.

  2. ANALISIS EFEK KECELAKAAN WATER INGRESS TERHADAP REAKTIVITAS DOPPLER TERAS RGTT200K

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zuhair Zuhair

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Dalam high temperature reactor, koefisien reaktivitas temperatur yang didesain negatif menjamin reaksi fisi dalam teras tetap berada di bawah kendali dan panas peluruhan tidak akan pernah melelehkan bahan bakar yang menyebabkan terlepasnya zat radioaktif ke lingkungan. Namun masuknya air (water ingress ke dalam teras reaktor akibat pecahnya tabung penukar panas generator uap, yang dikenal sebagai salah satu kecelakaan dasar desain, dapat mengintroduksi reaktivitas positif dengan potensi bahaya lainnya seperti korosi grafit dan kerusakan material struktur reflektor. Makalah ini akan menganalisis efek kecelakaan water ingress terhadap reaktivitas Doppler teras RGTT200K. Kapabilitas koefisien reaktivitas Doppler untuk mengkompensasi reaktivitas positif yang timbul selama kecelakaan water ingress akan diuji melalui serangkaian perhitungan dengan program MCNPX dan pustaka ENDF/B-VII untuk perubahan temperatur bahan bakar dari 800K hingga 1800K. Tiga opsi kernel bahan bakar UO2, ThO2/UO2 dan PuO2 dengan tiga model kisi bahan bakar pebble di teras reaktor diterapkan untuk kondisi water ingress dengan densitas air dari 0 hingga 1.000 kg/m3. Hasil perhitungan memperlihatkan koefisien reaktivitas Doppler tetap negatif untuk seluruh opsi bahan bakar yang dipertimbangkan bahkan untuk posibilitas water ingress yang besar. Efek water ingress lebih kuat pada model kisi dengan fraksi packing lebih rendah karena lebih banyak volume yang tersedia untuk air yang memasuki teras reaktor. Efek water ingress juga lebih kuat di teras uranium dibandingkan teras thorium dan plutonium sebagai konsekuensi dari fenomena Doppler dimana absorpsi neutron di daerah resonansi 238U lebih besar daripada 232Th dan 240Pu. Secara keseluruhan dapat disimpulkan bahwa, koefisien Doppler teras RGTT200K mampu mengkompensasi insersi reaktivitas yang diintroduksi oleh kecelakaan water ingress. Teras RGTT200K dengan bahan bakar UO2, ThO2/UO2 dan PuO2 dapat mempertahankan fitur keselamatan

  3. Effect of air ingress on the energy performance of coal fired thermal power plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Siddhartha Bhatt, M.

    2007-01-01

    Ingress of air in boilers leads to drops in energy efficiency. This paper presents the effects of air ingress in the combustion zone, post-combustion zone and air pre-heater (APH) on the energy efficiency and loading capacity of a coal fired thermal power plant operating on fuel with high ash (35-45%). The optimal O 2 in the flue gas for a pulverized coal fired system is 3.5% (corresponding to 20% excess air). The operating values are in the range of 4.2-6.0% in membrane type boilers and up to 10% in refractory type boilers (after sustained periods of operation). The leakage rate of boilers (up to the entrance of the APH) is designed at 0.2% while the average operating values are 7.25% for membrane type enclosures and 33.61% for refractory enclosures. The leakage rate of the APH is designed at 5.0% while the operating values range from 13.66% to 20.13% for rotary and tubular APHs. When the O 2 in the combustion zone varies from 3.5% to 8.0%, efficiency drops of 2.0% points are experienced in the boiler and turbine separately, and the gross overall efficiency drop is ∼3.0% points. The units do not experience any capacity drop up to an O 2 in the flue gas of 6.0% before the APH. At an O 2 in the flue gas (before APH) of 7.2%, a mild limitation on the unit capacity of around 2-3% is experienced. When O 2 in the flue gas (before APH) reaches a level of 9.0%, 20% capacity drop of the unit is experienced due to which the plant load cannot be raised higher than 80%. Beyond the level of 9.0% (rare occurrence), the unit is quite difficult to operate and has to be taken off for overhaul

  4. Oxidation kinetics of innovative carbon materials with respect to severe air ingress accidents in HTRs and graphite disposal or processing

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schloegel, Baerbel

    2010-01-01

    Currently future nuclear reactor concepts of the Fourth Generation (Gen IV) are under development. To some extend they apply with new, innovative materials developed just for this purpose. This thesis work aims at a concept of Generation IV Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTR) in the framework of the European project RAPHAEL (ReActor for Process heat, Hydrogen And ELectricity generation). The concept named ANTARES (AREVA New Technology based on advanced gas-cooled Reactors for Energy Supply) was developed by AEVA NP. It is a helium cooled, graphite moderated modular reactor for electricity and hydrogen production, by providing the necessary process heat due to its high working temperature. Particular attention is given here to oxidation kinetics of newly developed carbon materials (NBG-17) with still unknown but needed information in context of severe air ingress accident in VHTR's. Special interest is paid to the Boudouard reaction, the oxidation of carbon by CO 2 . In case of an air ingress accident, carbon dioxide is produced in the primary reaction of atmospheric oxygen with reflector graphite. From there CO 2 could flow into the reactor core causing further damage by conversion into CO. The purpose of this thesis is to ascertain if and to what degree this could happen. First of all oxidation kinetic data of the Boudouard reaction with NBG-17 is determined by experiments in a thermo gravimetric facility. The measurements are evaluated and converted into a common formula and a Langmuir-Hinshelwood similar oxidation kinetic equation, as input for the computer code REACT/THERMIX. This code is then applied to analyse severe air ingress accidents for several air flow rates. The results are discussed for two accident situations, in which a certain graphite burn off is achieved. All cases show much more damage to the graphite bottom reflector than to the reactor core. Thus the bottom reflector will lose its structural integrity much earlier than the core itself will

  5. Oxidation parameters of nuclear graphite for HTGR air-ingress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, E.S.; No, H.C.

    2004-01-01

    In order to investigate chemical behaviors of the graphite during an air-ingress accident in HTGR, the kinetic tests on nuclear graphite IG-110 were performed in chemical reaction dominant regime. In the present experiment, inlet gas flow rate ranged between 8 and 18 SLPM, graphite temperatures and oxygen mole fraction ranged from 540 to 630degC and from 3 to 30% respectively. The test section was made of a quartz tube having 75 mm diameter and 750 mm length and the test specimen machined to the size of 21 mm diameter and 30 mm length was supported at the center of it by the alumina rod. The 15 kW induction heater was installed around the outside of test section to heat the specimen and its temperature was measured by 2 infrared thermometers. The oxidation rate was calculated from the gas concentration analysis between inlet and outlet using NDIR (non-dispersive infrared) gas analyzer. As a result the activation energy (Ea) and the order of reaction (n) were determined within 95% confidence level and the qualitative characteristics of the two parameters were also widely investigated by experimental and analytical methods. (author)

  6. Analysis of diffusion process and influence factors in the air ingress accident of the HTR-PM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yanhua, Zheng, E-mail: zhengyh@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn; Fubing, Chen; Lei, Shi

    2014-05-01

    Air ingress, one of the beyond design basis accidents for high temperature gas-cooled reactors, receives high attention during the design of the 250 MW pebble-bed modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), because it may result in severe consequence including the corrosion of the fuel element and graphite reflector. The diffusion process and the set-up time of the stable natural convection after the double-ended guillotine break of the hot-gas duct are studied in the paper. On the basis of the preliminary design of the HTR-PM and its DLOCA analysis results, the diffusion process, as well as the influence of the core temperature distribution and the length of the hot-gas duct, is studied with the DIFFLOW code, which adopts a one-dimension variable cross-section diffusion model with fixed wall temperature. To preliminarily estimate the influence of chemical reaction between oxygen and graphite, which will change the gas component of the mixture, the diffusion processes between the He/N{sub 2}, He/O{sub 2}, He/CO and He/CO{sub 2} are calculated, respectively. Furthermore, the code has been improved and the varying wall temperature can be simulated. The more accurate analysis is carried out with the changing temperature distribution from the DLOCA calculation. The analysis shows that there is enough time to adopt appropriate mitigation measures to stop the air ingress and the severe consequence of fuel element damage and large release of fission product can be avoided.

  7. Ruthenium transport experiments in air ingress accident conditions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Teemu, Karkele; Ulrika, Backman; Ari, Auvinen; Unto, Tapper; Jorma, Jokiniemi [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Fine Particles (Finland); Riitta, Zilliacus; Maija, Lipponen; Tommi, Kekki [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland, Accident Management (Finland); Jorma, Jokiniemi [Kuopio Univ., Dept. of Environmental Sciences, Fine Particle and Aerosol Technology Lab. (Finland)

    2007-07-01

    In this study the release, transport and speciation of ruthenium in conditions simulating an air ingress accident was studied. Ruthenium dioxide was exposed to oxidising environment at high temperature (1100-1700 K) in a tubular flow furnace. At these conditions volatile ruthenium species were formed. A large fraction of the released ruthenium was deposited in the tube as RuO{sub 2}. Depending on the experimental conditions 1-26 wt% of the released ruthenium was trapped in the outlet filter as RuO{sub 2} particles. In stainless steel tube 0-8.8 wt% of the released ruthenium reached the trapping bottle as gaseous RuO{sub 4}. A few experiments were carried out, in which revaporization of ruthenium deposited on the tube walls was studied. In these experiments, oxidation of RuO{sub 2} took place at a lower temperature. During revaporization experiments 35-65 % of ruthenium was transported as gaseous RuO{sub 4}. In order to close mass balance and achieve better time resolution 4 experiments were carried out using a radioactive tracer. In these experiments ruthenium profiles were measured. These experiments showed that the most important retention mechanism was decomposition of gaseous RuO{sub 3} into RuO{sub 2} as the temperature of the furnace was decreasing. In these experiments the transport rate of gaseous ruthenium was decreasing while the release rate was constant.

  8. Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project - Information Management System (WWIPIMS), South Africa

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hild, S.; Sieste, M.; Barth, A.; Rudinskaya, J. [Beak Consultants GmbH, Freiberg (Germany); Croukamp, L.; Roos, M. [Council for Geoscience (CGS), Pretoria (South Africa)

    2006-07-01

    The Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project at the Council for Geoscience, South Africa (CGS) deals with an inventory, a risk assessment and the development of rehabilitation strategies for abandoned mining sites in the Witwatersrand Mining Basin. The main focus is the prevention of water ingress and to understand the future decanting scenario. An Information Management System consisting of both a relational database and an application for the Witwatersrand Water Ingress Project is established for accessing and managing all project-related data. This easy to use application makes the data available to all staff at the CGS via several modules as well as a GIS-component for accessing and querying spatial data. This will enable the scientists to derive further knowledge of the water flowing processes by directly using all of the existing up-to-date data. Many additional functions, such as the support for map printing on demand, extensive possibilities for inquiries, data import and export, diagrams and a GIS-viewer for spatial inquiries do complete the system. (orig.)

  9. Response of fuel, fuel elements and gas cooled reactor cores under accidental air or water ingress conditions. Proceedings of a technical committee meeting held in Beijing, China, 25-27 October 1993

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1995-01-01

    The meeting was convened by the IAEA on the recommendation of the IAEA`s International Working Group on Gas Cooled Reactors. It was attended by participants from China, France, Germany, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom and the United States of America. The meeting covered the following topics: experimental investigations of the effects of air and water ingress; predicted response of fuel, graphite and other reactor components; options for minimizing or mitigating the effects of air or water ingress. 19 papers were presented at the meeting. A separate abstract was prepared for each of these papers. Refs, figs and tabs.

  10. Googles Augmented-Reality-Game "Ingress"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karl H. Stingeder

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Das an das "Geocoaching"-Spielprinzip erinnernde Augmented-­Reality-Game "Ingress" ist auf allen mit Android-Betriebssystem ausgestatteten Smartphones spielbar. Das Alleinstellungsmerkmal des Spiels ist gleich­zeitig auch das beste Patent-Rezept für bzw. gegen notorisches "Couch-Potato-ing": Das Game-Design des "Draußenspiels" erfordert jedoch stets die physische Anwesenheit der SpielerInnen am realen Ort des Geschehens, meist touristisch attraktive Sehenswürdigkeiten und architektonisch markante Plätze. Sobald "Ingress" per App am Smart­phone gestartet wird, stehen Interaktionen und Machtverhältnisse auf dem Handy-Display im Dreh- und Angelpunkt des Geschehens. Die Spielgrafik ist auf das Wesentliche reduziert und erinnert an die Optik von Videospielen der 80er Jahre. "Ingress" im Allgemeinen sowie "Magnus13", die erste von Google organisierte Fan-Veranstaltung Österreichs mit mehreren Hundert TeilnehmerInnen und ist mit einer "digitalen Schnitzeljagd" vergleichbar: Gemeinsam ist der klassischen "Schnitzeljagd" und dem digitalen "Schere-Schein-Papier" Prinzip von "Ingress" die tragende Rolle des im Spiel entstehenden Gemeinschaftsgefühls, welche in einer hohen Langzeitmotivation mündet. Trotz aller Euphorie, ob des unkonventionellen Augmented-Reality-Spielkonzepts und des in Folge der sozialen Dynamik außergewöhnlichen Sucht­potentials, ist angesichts von Edward Snowden und vielfältiger NSA-Abhörmaßnahmen, eine gesunde Portion Skepsis angebracht: Welchen Zweck erfüllt "Ingress"? Gibt es ein verhülltes "Mittel zum Zweck"? Welche Gefahren bestehen mit einer systematischen Auswertung des umfangreichen, ortsrelevanten Daten-Sammelsuriums? "Ingress" verdeutlicht trotz aller Risiken den soziokulturellen Bedeutungswandel des digitalen Spiels: Spiele per se und das Spiel als soziale Interaktion sind aktuell dabei, alle Bereiche unseres Lebens zu erfassen.

  11. Experimental and analytical investigations to air and steam ingress into the vacuum vessel of fusion reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruessenberg, A.K.

    1996-12-01

    The basic fusion safety objective is the development of fusion power plants with features that protect individuals, society and the environment by establishing and maintaining an effective defence against radiological and other hazards. The most important specific principle is the establishment of three sequential levels of defence, characterized in priority order by prevention, protection and mitigation. The safety conscious selection of materials as one prevention feature gives the basis for the work described in this report. In order to protect the metallic first wall of fusion reactors from direct interaction with the plasma an extra armour is foreseen. Carbon offers the features low atomic number, high melting point, high thermal conductivity and good mechanical stability up to high temperatures making it to a favourite armour material. Looking on the safety behaviour of fusion reactors it has to be noted that carbon is unstable against oxidizing media like oxygen and steam at high temperatures und carbon has a high sorption capacity for radiologically important tritium. And tritium used as intermediate fuel in the actual reactor concepts is the one form radioactivity is present in fusion reactors. Accidents like loss of vacuum (LOVA) will lead to an air ingress into the vacuum vessel, oxidation of the hot carbon and a partial mobilization of the sorbed tritium. In a similar manner loss of coolant into vacuum (LOCIV) will lead to a water/steam ingress into the vacuum vessel, also accompanied by carbon oxidation and tritium release. (orig.)

  12. Oxygen ingress : a practical look at typical ingress mechanisms and the consequences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lerbscher, J. [Baker Hughes Canada, Calgary, AB (Canada); Marlowe, D. [ChevronTexaco, Kenai, AK (United States); Thomas, J. [Baker Hughes, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    This paper discussed methods of identifying and treating oxygen corrosion in hydrocarbon processing facilities. Oxygen corrosion is often misdiagnosed during the course of corrosion failure analyses. Measures to find the source of ingress are only typically initiated when test results demonstrate significant sources of oxygen within processing systems. The iron oxides produced as byproducts from oxygen reactions increase pitting and corrosion rates, and most of the chemical inhibitors used in oil and gas processing are not designed to work in the presence of oxygen. Oxygen reacts with hydrogen sulfide (H{sub 2}S) to form elemental sulfur. The high pressures used in processing facilities enhance the thermodynamic and kinetic tendencies of the chemical reactions with oxygen. Sulfur particles are known to enhance corrosion rates by an order of magnitude, and can also cause fouling and flow restrictions. Oxygen ingress can occur via vapor recovery unit, vacuum excursions, and liquid storage tanks. Symptoms that indicate oxygen ingress can include the presence of iron compounds in solid samples; the presence of sulfur; fouling of wet gas transmission lines; the presence of ionic polysulfides in the aqueous phase; higher corrosion rates than predicted; and the degradation of glycols in dehydration units. Portable gas chromatography, oxygen detection vials, and X-ray diffraction analysis techniques are used to detect oxygen ingress. Real time oxygen monitors are also connected to SCADA systems. It was concluded that oxygen testing should be conducted periodically in order to identify and eliminate its source of entry. A technical summary of corrosive species was included. 1 tab., 15 figs.

  13. Pulmonic Ingressive Speech in Shetland English

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sundkvist, Peter

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a study of pulmonic ingressive speech, a severely understudied phenomenon within varieties of English. While ingressive speech has been reported for several parts of the British Isles, New England, and eastern Canada, thus far Newfoundland appears to be the only locality where researchers have managed to provide substantial…

  14. Modeling moisture ingress through simplified concrete crack geometries

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pease, Bradley Justin; Michel, Alexander; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2011-01-01

    , considered to have two parts; 1) a coalesced crack length which behaves as a free-surface for moisture ingress, and 2) an isolated microcracking length which resists ingress similarly to the bulk material. Transport model results are compared to experimental results from steel fibre reinforced concrete wedge......This paper introduces a numerical model for ingress in cracked steel fibre reinforced concrete. Details of a simplified crack are preset in the model’s geometry using the cracked hinge model (CHM). The total crack length estimated using the CHM was, based on earlier work on conventional concrete...... on moisture ingress. Results from the transport model indicate the length of the isolated microcracks was approximately 19 mm for the investigated concrete composition....

  15. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede; Hansen, Per Freiesleben; Coats, Alison M.

    1999-01-01

    In this paper chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar is followed by electron probe microanalysis. The influence of several paste and exposure parameters on chloride ingress are examined (e.g., water-cement ratio, silica fume addition, exposure time, and temperature), The measurements...

  16. The study on water ingress mass in the steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture accident of modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yan; Shi Lei; Li Fu; Zheng Yanhua

    2012-01-01

    The steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture (SGTR) accident is an important and particular accident which will result in water ingress to the primary loop of reactor. Water ingress will result in chemical reaction of graphite fuel and structure with water, which may cause overpressure due to generation of explosive gaseous in large quantity. The study on the water ingress accident is significant for the verification of the inherent characteristics of high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The previous research shows that the amount of water ingress mass is the dominant key factor on the severity of the accident consequence. The 200 MWe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), which is the first modular pebble-bed high temperature gas-cooled reactor in China designed by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University, is selected to be analyzed in this paper. The different DBA accident scenarios of double-ended break of single heat-exchange tube are simulated respectively by the thermal-hydraulic analysis code RETRAN-02. The results show the water ingress mass through the broken heat-exchange tube is related to the break location. The amount of water ingress mass is affected obviously by the capacity of the emptier system. With the balance of safety and economical efficiency, the amount of water ingress mass from the secondary side of steam generator into the primary coolant loop will be reduced by increasing properly the diameter of the draining lines. (authors)

  17. Containment Performance Evaluation of a Sodium Fire Event Due to Air Ingress into the Cover Gas Region of the Reactor Vessel in the PGSFR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Sang June; Chang, Won-Pyo; Kang, Seok Hun; Choi, Chi-Woong; Yoo, Jin; Lee, Kwi Lim; Jeong, Jae-Ho; Lee, Seung Won; Jeong, Taekyeong; Ha, Kwi-Seok

    2015-01-01

    Comparing with the light water reactor, sodium as a reactor coolant violently reacts with oxygen in the containment atmosphere. Due to this chemical reaction, heat generated from the combustion heat increases the temperature and pressure in the containment atmosphere. The structural integrity of the containment building which is a final radiological defense barrier is threaten. A sodium fire event in the containment due to air ingress into the cover gas region in the reactor vessel is classified as one of the design basis events in the PGSFR. This event comes from a leak or crack on the reactor upper closure header surface. It accompanys an event of the radiological fission products release to the inside the containment. In this paper, evaluation for the sodium fire and radiological influence due to air ingress into the cover gas region of the reactor vessel is described. To evaluate this event, the CONTAIN-LMR, MACCS-II and OR-IGEN-II codes are used. For the sodium pool fire event in the containment, the performance evaluation and radiological influence are carried out. In the thermal hydraulic aspects, the 1 cell containment yields the most conservative result. In this event, the maximum temperature and pressure in the containment are calculated 0.185 MPa, 280.0 .deg. C, respectively. The radiological dose at the EAB and LPZ are below the acceptance criteria specified in the 10CFR100

  18. Containment Performance Evaluation of a Sodium Fire Event Due to Air Ingress into the Cover Gas Region of the Reactor Vessel in the PGSFR

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ahn, Sang June; Chang, Won-Pyo; Kang, Seok Hun; Choi, Chi-Woong; Yoo, Jin; Lee, Kwi Lim; Jeong, Jae-Ho; Lee, Seung Won; Jeong, Taekyeong; Ha, Kwi-Seok [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-05-15

    Comparing with the light water reactor, sodium as a reactor coolant violently reacts with oxygen in the containment atmosphere. Due to this chemical reaction, heat generated from the combustion heat increases the temperature and pressure in the containment atmosphere. The structural integrity of the containment building which is a final radiological defense barrier is threaten. A sodium fire event in the containment due to air ingress into the cover gas region in the reactor vessel is classified as one of the design basis events in the PGSFR. This event comes from a leak or crack on the reactor upper closure header surface. It accompanys an event of the radiological fission products release to the inside the containment. In this paper, evaluation for the sodium fire and radiological influence due to air ingress into the cover gas region of the reactor vessel is described. To evaluate this event, the CONTAIN-LMR, MACCS-II and OR-IGEN-II codes are used. For the sodium pool fire event in the containment, the performance evaluation and radiological influence are carried out. In the thermal hydraulic aspects, the 1 cell containment yields the most conservative result. In this event, the maximum temperature and pressure in the containment are calculated 0.185 MPa, 280.0 .deg. C, respectively. The radiological dose at the EAB and LPZ are below the acceptance criteria specified in the 10CFR100.

  19. Chloride Ingress in Concrete Cracks under Cyclic Loading

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Küter, André; Geiker, Mette Rica; Olesen, John Forbes

    2005-01-01

    was similar for both sets and the maximum crack width was kept constant throughout the exposure period by means of precracking and an external prestressed reinforcement. Chloride profiles after 40 days revealed a considerable increase in ingress towards the crack tip in contrast to data from the literature....... Preliminary investigations have been undertaken to quantify the effect of dynamic load application on the chloride ingress into concrete cracks. Specimens were designed allowing ingress of a chloride solution into a single crack of a saturated unreinforced mortar beam. One set of specimens was subjected...... to a load frequency of ten applications per minute and a second set to one application per hour simulating static cracks, however limiting the ingress hampering effects of autogenous healing and a possible dense precipitation on the crack faces. The averaged chloride exposure interval of the crack faces...

  20. The effects of applying silicon carbide coating on core reactivity of pebble-bed HTR in water ingress accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zuhair, S.; Setiadipura, Topan [National Nuclear Energy Agency of Indonesia, Serpong Tagerang Selatan (Indonesia). Center for Nuclear Reactor Technology and Safety; Su' ud, Zaki [Bandung Institute of Technology (Indonesia). Dept. of Physics

    2017-03-15

    Graphite is used as the moderator, fuel barrier material, and core structure in High Temperature Reactors (HTRs). However, despite its good thermal and mechanical properties below the radiation and high temperatures, it cannot avoid corrosion as a consequence of an accident of water/air ingress. Degradation of graphite as a main HTR material and the formation of dangerous CO gas is a serious problem in HTR safety. One of the several steps that can be adopted to avoid or prevent the corrosion of graphite by the water/air ingress is the application of a thin layer of silicon carbide (SiC) on the surface of the fuel element. This study investigates the effect of applying SiC coating on the fuel surfaces of pebble-bed HTR in water ingress accident from the reactivity points of view. A series of reactivity calculations were done with the Monte Carlo transport code MCNPX and continuous energy nuclear data library ENDF/B-VII at temperature of 1200 K. Three options of UO{sub 2}, PuO{sub 2}, and ThO{sub 2}/UO{sub 2} fuel kernel were considered to obtain the inter comparison of the core reactivity of pebble-bed HTR in conditions of water/air ingress accident. The calculation results indicated that the UO{sub 2}-fueled pebble-bed HTR reactivity was slightly reduced and relatively more decreased when the thickness of the SiC coating increased. The reactivity characteristic of ThO{sub 2}/UO{sub 2}-fueled pebble-bed HTR showed a similar trend to that of UO{sub 2}, but did not show reactivity peak caused by water ingress. In contrast with UO{sub 2}- and ThO{sub 2}-fueled pebble-bed HTR, although the reactivity of PuO{sub 2}-fueled pebble-bed HTR was the lowest, its characteristics showed a very high reactivity peak (0.33 Δk/k) and this introduction of positive reactivity is difficult to control. SiC coating on the surface of the plutonium fuel pebble has no significant impact. From the comparison between reactivity characteristics of uranium, thorium and plutonium cores with 0

  1. Chloride ingress profiles measured by electron probe micro analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole mejlhede; Coats, Alison M.; Glasser, Fred P.

    1996-01-01

    Traditional techniques for measuring chloride ingress profiles do not apply well to high performance cement paste systems; the geometric resolution of the traditional measuring techniques is too low. In this paper measurements by Electron Probe Micro Analysis (EPMA) are presented. EPMA is demonst......Traditional techniques for measuring chloride ingress profiles do not apply well to high performance cement paste systems; the geometric resolution of the traditional measuring techniques is too low. In this paper measurements by Electron Probe Micro Analysis (EPMA) are presented. EPMA...... is demonstated to determine chloride ingress in cement paste on a micrometer scale. Potential chloride ingress routes such as cracks or the paste-aggregate interface may also be characterized by EPMA. Copyright (C) 1996 Elsevier Science Ltd...

  2. Prime Example Ingress Reframing the Pervasive Game Design Framework (PGDF

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heinrich Söbke

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The growing availability of mobile communication infrastructure over the last decade has contributed significantly to the maturity of Pervasive Gaming. The massive success of games such as Ingress and Pokémon Go made pervasive gaming a viable option for transforming learning. By its adaptability to location and context, pervasive technology is a valuable support for the design of engaging learning experiences. Despite profound examples of pervasive gaming as learning tool, there is still a lack of reliable methodologies to construct purposeful pervasive learning experiences. The Pervasive Game Design Framework (PGDF is intended to fill this gap. In this article, we present the PGDF using the example of Ingress. Ingress is a prominent pervasive game, as it has received huge attention since its appearance in 2012. A large community of players and third-party-tool suppliers has created a rich set of experiences since then. In this research, we examine Ingress according to PGDF’s categories based on a survey among long-term Ingress players (N=133. Founded on this analysis we identify three main benefits for Ingress players. Furthermore, we discuss the consequences of these findings on the PGDF. Summarizing, this work strengthens the applicability of the PGDF, in order to enable the construction of enriched pervasive learning experiences.

  3. Analysis on blow-down transient in water ingress accident of high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang, Yan; Zheng, Yanhua; Li, Fu; Shi, Lei

    2014-01-01

    Water ingress into the primary circuit is generally recognized as one of the severe accidents with potential hazard to the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor, which will cause a positive reactivity introduction with the increase of steam density in reactor core to enhance neutron slowing-down, also the chemical corrosion of graphite fuel elements and the damage of reflector structure material. The increase of the primary pressure may result in the opening of the safety valves, consequently leading the release of radioactive isotopes and flammable water gas. The research on water ingress transient is significant for the verification of inherent safety characteristics of high temperature gas-cooled reactor. The 200 MWe high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTR-PM), designed by the Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University, is exampled to be analyzed in this paper. The design basis accident (DBA) scenarios of double-ended guillotine break of single heat-exchange tube (steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture) are simulated by the thermal-hydraulic analysis code, and some key concerns which are relative to the amount of water into the reactor core during the blow-down transient are analyzed in detail. The results show that both of water mass and steam ratio of the fluid spouting from the broken heat-exchange tube are affected by break location, which will increase obviously with the broken location closing to the outlet of the heat-exchange tube. The double-ended guillotine rupture at the outlet of the heat-exchange will result more steam penetrates into the reactor core in the design basis accident of water ingress. The mass of water ingress will also be affected by the draining system. It is concluded that, with reasonable optimization on design to balance safety and economy, the total mass of water ingress into the primary circuit of reactor could be limited effectively to meet the safety requirements, and the pollution of

  4. Supply Ventilation and Prevention of Carbon Monoxide (II) Ingress into Building Premises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Litvinova, N. A.

    2017-11-01

    The article contains the relationships of carbon monoxide (II) concentration versus height-above-ground near buildings derived based on results of studies. The results of studies are crucial in preventing external pollutants ingress into a ventilation system. Being generated by external emission sources, such as motor vehicles and city heating plants, carbon monoxide (II) enters the premises during operation of a supply ventilation system. Fresh air nomographic charts were drawn to select the height of a fresh air intake into the ventilation system. Nomographic charts take into account external sources. The selected emission sources are located at various levels above ground relative to the building. The recommendations allow designing supply ventilation taking into account the quality of ambient air through the whole building height.

  5. Water Ingress Testing of the Turbula Jar and U-233 Lead Pig Containers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Reeves, Kirk Patrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Karns, Tristan [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Smith, Paul Herrick [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-11-02

    Understanding the water ingress behavior of containers used at the TA-55 Plutonium Facility has significant implications for criticality safety. The purpose of this report is to document the water ingress behavior of the Turbula Jar with Bakelite lid and Viton gaskets (Turbula Jar) used in oxide blending operations and the U-233 lead pig container used to store and transport U-233 material. The technical basis for water resistant containers at TA-55 is described in LA-UR-15-22781, “Water Resistant Container Technical Basis Document for the TA-55 Criticality Safety Program.” Testing of the water ingress behavior of various containers is described in LA-CP-13-00695, “Water Penetration Tests on the Filters of Hagan and SAVY Containers,” LA-UR-15-23121, “Water Ingress into Crimped Convenience Containers under Flooding Conditions,” and in LA-UR- 16-2411, “Water Ingress Testing for TA-55 Containers.” Water ingress criteria are defined in TA55-AP-522 “TA-55 Criticality Safety Program”, and in PA-RD-01009 “TA55 Criticality Safety Requirements.” The water ingress criteria for submersion is no more than 50 ml of water ingress at a 6” water column height for a period of 2 hours.

  6. Oxidation kinetics of innovative carbon materials with respect to severe air ingress accidents in HTRs and graphite disposal or processing; Oxidationskinetik innovativer Kohlenstoffmaterialien hinsichtlich schwerer Lufteinbruchstoerfaelle in HTR's und Graphitentsorgung oder Aufbereitung

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schloegel, Baerbel

    2010-07-01

    Currently future nuclear reactor concepts of the Fourth Generation (Gen IV) are under development. To some extend they apply with new, innovative materials developed just for this purpose. This thesis work aims at a concept of Generation IV Very High Temperature Reactors (VHTR) in the framework of the European project RAPHAEL (ReActor for Process heat, Hydrogen And ELectricity generation). The concept named ANTARES (AREVA New Technology based on advanced gas-cooled Reactors for Energy Supply) was developed by AEVA NP. It is a helium cooled, graphite moderated modular reactor for electricity and hydrogen production, by providing the necessary process heat due to its high working temperature. Particular attention is given here to oxidation kinetics of newly developed carbon materials (NBG-17) with still unknown but needed information in context of severe air ingress accident in VHTR's. Special interest is paid to the Boudouard reaction, the oxidation of carbon by CO{sub 2}. In case of an air ingress accident, carbon dioxide is produced in the primary reaction of atmospheric oxygen with reflector graphite. From there CO{sub 2} could flow into the reactor core causing further damage by conversion into CO. The purpose of this thesis is to ascertain if and to what degree this could happen. First of all oxidation kinetic data of the Boudouard reaction with NBG-17 is determined by experiments in a thermo gravimetric facility. The measurements are evaluated and converted into a common formula and a Langmuir-Hinshelwood similar oxidation kinetic equation, as input for the computer code REACT/THERMIX. This code is then applied to analyse severe air ingress accidents for several air flow rates. The results are discussed for two accident situations, in which a certain graphite burn off is achieved. All cases show much more damage to the graphite bottom reflector than to the reactor core. Thus the bottom reflector will lose its structural integrity much earlier than the

  7. Chloride Ingress into Concrete under Water Pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lund, Mia Schou; Sander, Lotte Braad; Grelk, Bent

    2011-01-01

    The chloride ingress into concrete under water pressures of 100 kPa and 800 kPa have been investigated by experiments. The specimens were exposed to a 10% NaCl solution and water mixture. For the concrete having w/c = 0.35 the experimental results show the chloride diffusion coefficient at 800 k......Pa (~8 atm.) is 12 times greater than at 100 kPa (~1 atm.). For w/c = 0.45 and w/c = 0.55 the chloride diffusion coefficients are 7 and 3 times greater. This means that a change in pressure highly influences the chloride ingress into the concrete and thereby the life length models for concrete structures....

  8. Role of future scenarios in understanding deep uncertainty in long-term air quality management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamas, Julia; Dodder, Rebecca; Loughlin, Dan; Gage, Cynthia

    2015-11-01

    The environment and its interactions with human systems, whether economic, social, or political, are complex. Relevant drivers may disrupt system dynamics in unforeseen ways, making it difficult to predict future conditions. This kind of "deep uncertainty" presents a challenge to organizations faced with making decisions about the future, including those involved in air quality management. Scenario Planning is a structured process that involves the development of narratives describing alternative future states of the world, designed to differ with respect to the most critical and uncertain drivers. The resulting scenarios are then used to understand the consequences of those futures and to prepare for them with robust management strategies. We demonstrate a novel air quality management application of Scenario Planning. Through a series of workshops, important air quality drivers were identified. The most critical and uncertain drivers were found to be "technological development" and "change in societal paradigms." These drivers were used as a basis to develop four distinct scenario storylines. The energy and emissions implications of each storyline were then modeled using the MARKAL energy system model. NOx emissions were found to decrease for all scenarios, largely a response to existing air quality regulations, whereas SO2 emissions ranged from 12% greater to 7% lower than 2015 emissions levels. Future-year emissions differed considerably from one scenario to another, however, with key differentiating factors being transition to cleaner fuels and energy demand reductions. Application of scenarios in air quality management provides a structured means of sifting through and understanding the dynamics of the many complex driving forces affecting future air quality. Further, scenarios provide a means to identify opportunities and challenges for future air quality management, as well as a platform for testing the efficacy and robustness of particular management

  9. HTGR [High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor] ingress analysis using MINET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Tuyle, G.J.; Yang, J.W.; Kroeger, P.G.; Mallen, A.N.; Aronson, A.L.

    1989-04-01

    Modeling of water/steam ingress into the primary (helium) cooling circuit of a High Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) is described. This modeling was implemented in the MINET Code, which is a program for analyzing transients in intricate fluid flow and heat transfer networks. Results from the simulation of a water ingress event postulated for the Modular HTGR are discussed. 27 refs., 6 figs., 6 tabs

  10. Screening of Low Clinker Binders, Compressive Strength and Chloride Ingress

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geiker, Mette Rica; De Weerdt, Klaartje; Garzón, Sergio Ferreiro

    2017-01-01

    This paper reports an initial screening of potential new binders for concrete with reduced CO2-emission. Mortars cured saturated for 90 days are compared with regard to a) compressive strength of mortars with similar water-to-binder ratio, and b) chloride ingress in similar design strength mortar...... compromising the 90 days compressive strength and resistance to chloride ingress in marine exposure by using selected alternative binders....

  11. Ingress of radioactive material into dwellings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roed, J.; Goddard, A.J.H.

    1991-01-01

    People inside buildings will normally obtain some protection against airborne pollution originating in the outdoor air. This protection will be due to deposition indoors on floors, walls, ceilings and furniture, and to filtration during ingress, in cracks, crevices and pores in the building structure. A building will also give some protection against direct gamma radiation from outdoor deposits on the ground and external building surfaces. However, indoor deposits, while reducing air exposure, may add to the dose commitment from direct gamma radiation. Other subsidiary factors such as mechanical transport may need to be considered. We used test houses for finding factors by which outdoor air concentrations exceed those found indoors. Be-7 of cosmogenic origin and associated with natural aerosol has been used as a tracer, together with radionuclides dispersed in the atmosphere as a result of the Chernobyl accident. In addition, SF 6 tracer measurements have been used to measure air exchange rates. Novel experimental arrangements, to isolate the deposition process, were used. Attention has also been given to developing suitable tracers for monodisperse artificial aerosols and to means of detecting such aerosols. The use of these techniques in studying mechanical transport of particulate material is described. The indoor to outdoor airborne concentration ratios in a test house during the Chernobyl accident were found to be 0.25 for caesium, 0.4 for particulate iodine and 0.5 for beryllium-7. Indoor deposition velocities, for a range of radionuclides, ranged from 7 10-5 to 2 10-4 m s-1. Subsequently, aerosol deposition measurements were conducted in unfurnished, partly furnished and fully furnished houses, using Be-7 as a tracer. Measured deposition velocities ranged from 10-5 m s-1 for the unfurnished room to 3 10-5 m s-1 for the fully furnished room

  12. Degradation of fly ash concrete under the coupled effect of carbonation and chloride aerosol ingress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu, Jun; Qiu, Qiwen; Chen, Xiaochi; Wang, Xiaodong; Xing, Feng; Han, Ningxu; He, Yijian

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Carbonation affects the chloride profile in concrete under chloride aerosol attack. • The chloride binding capacity can be reduced by the presence of carbonation. • Carbonation increases the rate of chloride diffusion for chloride aerosol ingress. • Chloride aerosol ingress reduces the carbonation depth and increases the pH value. • The use of fly ash in concrete enhances the resistance of chloride aerosol ingress. - Abstract: This paper presents an experimental investigation regarding the coupled effect of carbonation and chloride aerosol ingress on the durability performance of fly ash concrete. Test results demonstrate that carbonation significantly affects the chloride ingress profile, reduces the chloride binding capacity, and accelerates the rate of chloride ion diffusion. On the other hand, the carbonation rate of fly ash concrete is reduced by the presence of chlorides aerosol. The interaction nature between concrete carbonation and chloride aerosol ingress is also demonstrated by the microscopic analysis results obtained from scanning electron microscope and mercury intrusion porosimetry.

  13. Literature investigation of air/steam ingress through small cracks in concrete wall under pressure differences

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jiang, J.T.

    2008-01-01

    Traditionally within CANDU safety analysis, a loss coefficient of ∼2.8 is used to characterize turbulent flow leakage through narrow, sharp-edged cracks into, and out of Steam Protected Rooms (SPRs). In the event of main steam line break (MSLB), the pressure differences observed between SPRs and the surrounding area of the powerhouse range from 0.01kPa to 0.1 kPa. The relatively low pressure differences, coupled with narrow crack sizes, for instance, below 1 mm, may result in laminar flow leakage pathways as opposed to the turbulent variety assumed in analysis. The main purpose of this paper is thus (a) to calculate the loss coefficient for laminar flow through small cracks; and (b) to assess the effect of steam ingress to SPRs when the flow through some or all of the room leakage area is assumed to be laminar. Based on the literature review, the loss coefficient for laminar flow, through 1 mm crack size at 0.1 kPa pressure difference, ranges from 10 to about 65. This value represents an increase in loss coefficient of 3 ∼ 22 times the loss coefficient used for SPR safety analysis. The actual volumetric leakage rate is therefore 3 ∼ 8 times smaller than the amount previously applied. This paper demonstrates how the traditional loss coefficient used in safety analysis is extremely conservative in the analysis of the SPRs steam ingress phenomenon. (author)

  14. Literature investigation of air/steam ingress through small cracks in concrete wall under pressure differences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jiang, J.T. [McMaster Univ., Engineering Physics Dept., Hamilton, Ontario (Canada)], E-mail: jiangj3@mcmaster.ca

    2008-07-01

    Traditionally within CANDU safety analysis, a loss coefficient of {approx}2.8 is used to characterize turbulent flow leakage through narrow, sharp-edged cracks into, and out of Steam Protected Rooms (SPRs). In the event of main steam line break (MSLB), the pressure differences observed between SPRs and the surrounding area of the powerhouse range from 0.01kPa to 0.1 kPa. The relatively low pressure differences, coupled with narrow crack sizes, for instance, below 1 mm, may result in laminar flow leakage pathways as opposed to the turbulent variety assumed in analysis. The main purpose of this paper is thus (a) to calculate the loss coefficient for laminar flow through small cracks; and (b) to assess the effect of steam ingress to SPRs when the flow through some or all of the room leakage area is assumed to be laminar. Based on the literature review, the loss coefficient for laminar flow, through 1 mm crack size at 0.1 kPa pressure difference, ranges from 10 to about 65. This value represents an increase in loss coefficient of 3 {approx} 22 times the loss coefficient used for SPR safety analysis. The actual volumetric leakage rate is therefore 3 {approx} 8 times smaller than the amount previously applied. This paper demonstrates how the traditional loss coefficient used in safety analysis is extremely conservative in the analysis of the SPRs steam ingress phenomenon. (author)

  15. Performance Assessment of a Solar-Assisted Desiccant-Based Air Handling Unit Considering Different Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giovanni Angrisani

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, three alternative layouts (scenarios of an innovative solar-assisted hybrid desiccant-based air handling unit (AHU are investigated through dynamic simulations. Performance is evaluated with respect to a reference system and compared to those of the innovative plant without modifications. For each scenario, different collector types, surfaces and tilt angles are considered. The effect of the solar thermal energy surplus exploitation for other low-temperature uses is also investigated. The first alternative scenario consists of the recovery of the heat rejected by the condenser of the chiller to pre-heat the regeneration air. The second scenario considers the pre-heating of regeneration air with the warmer regeneration air exiting the desiccant wheel (DW. The last scenario provides pre-cooling of the process air before entering the DW. Results reveal that the plants with evacuated solar collectors (SC can ensure primary energy savings (15%–24% and avoid equivalent CO2 emissions (14%–22%, about 10 percentage points more than those with flat-plate collectors, when the solar thermal energy is used only for air conditioning and the collectors have the best tilt angle. If all of the solar thermal energy is considered, the best results with evacuated tube collectors are approximately 73% in terms of primary energy saving, 71% in terms of avoided equivalent CO2 emissions and a payback period of six years.

  16. Chloride ingress in cement paste and mortar measured by Electron Probe Micro Analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Ole Mejlhede

    1998-01-01

    is an important basis for designing the durability of concrete structures. As an example the Danish Great Belt link is designed to have 100 years durability based on calculation of chloride ingress.During the last 15 years the types of concrete used in practice have changed substantially. Due to plasticizers......Chloride ingress is a common cause of deterioration of reinforced concrete structures. Concrete may be exposed to chloride by sea water or deicing salts. The chloride initiates corrosion of the reinforcement which through expansion disrupts the concrete. Modelling the chloride ingress...... and mineral additives concretes with higher strengths and reduced permeability are produced. Recently it has become clear that traditional chloride ingress models do not apply to modern concretes. Actually, the life time model used for the Danish Great Belt link has shown up to be based on wrong assumptions...

  17. The transgressive-regressive cycle of the Romualdo Formation (Araripe Basin): Sedimentary archive of the Early Cretaceous marine ingression in the interior of Northeast Brazil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Custódio, Michele Andriolli; Quaglio, Fernanda; Warren, Lucas Veríssimo; Simões, Marcello Guimarães; Fürsich, Franz Theodor; Perinotto, José Alexandre J.; Assine, Mario Luis

    2017-08-01

    Geologic events related to the opening of the South Atlantic Ocean deeply influenced the sedimentary record of the Araripe Basin. As consequence, upper stratigraphic units of the basin record a marine ingression in northeastern Brazil during the late Aptian. The timing and stratigraphic architecture of these units are crucial to understand the paleogeography of Gondwana and how the proto-Atlantic Ocean reached interior NE Brazil during the early Cretaceous. This marine ingression is recorded in the Araripe Basin as the Romualdo Formation, characterized by a transgressive-regressive cycle bounded by two regional unconformities. In the eastern part of the basin, the Romualdo depositional sequence comprises coastal alluvial and tide-dominated deposits followed by marine transgressive facies characterized by two fossil-rich intervals: a lower interval of black shales with fossil-rich carbonate concretions (Konservat-Lagerstätten) and an upper level with mollusk-dominated shell beds and shelly limestones. Following the marine ingression, an incomplete regressive succession of marginal-marine facies records the return of continental environments to the basin. The stratigraphic framework based on the correlation of several sections defines a transgressive-regressive cycle with depositional dip towards southeast, decreasing in thickness towards northwest, and with source areas located at the northern side of the basin. The facies-cycle wedge-geometry, together with paleocurrent data, indicates a coastal onlap towards NNW. Therefore, contrary to several paleogeographic scenarios previously proposed, the marine ingression would have reached the western parts of the Araripe Basin from the SSE.

  18. Plating end fittings to reduce hydrogen ingress at rolled joints in CANDU reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    White, A.J.; Urbanic, V.F.; Bahurmuz, A.A.; Clendening, W.R.; Joynes, R.; McDougall, G.M.; Skinner, B.C.; Venkatapathi, S.

    1993-10-01

    Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes in CANDU nuclear reactors absorb hydrogen at a low rate from the primary heat transport water circulated through the tubes. Extra hydrogen is picked up at the rolled joints that connect the pressure tubes to out-of-core steel piping. This enhanced ingress may contribute to pressure-tube cracking at incorrectly assembled joints. The risk of pressure-tube failure has been decreased by ensuring correct joint assembly, and could be further decreased by reducing hydrogen ingress at rolled joints. This paper reviews progress toward using plated end fittings to reduce rolled-joint hydrogen ingress

  19. Chloride ingress prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Jens Mejer; Geiker, Mette Rica

    2008-01-01

    Prediction of chloride ingress into concrete is an important part of durability design of reinforced concrete structures exposed to chloride containing environment. This paper presents experimentally based design parameters for Portland cement concretes with and without silica fume and fly ash...... in marine atmospheric and submersed South Scandinavian environment. The design parameters are based on sequential measurements of 86 chloride profiles taken over ten years from 13 different types of concrete. The design parameters provide the input for an analytical model for chloride profiles as function...... of depth and time, when both the surface chloride concentration and the diffusion coefficient are allowed to vary in time. The model is presented in a companion paper....

  20. Physics of the pebble-bed high temperature reactor in massive water ingress accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Scherer, W.

    1989-10-01

    A point-kinetics model was developed to describe qualitatively hypothetical water ingress transients in the primary loop of High Temperature Reactors. Neutron kinetics, heat-flow balance and the chemical reaction of graphite corrosion together with their mutual influence are included. The qualitative behaviour of the transients is calculated and discussed for two fictitious examples, namely the long-term water ingress into a medium sized HTR (HTR-500) and the 'startup' of a small HTR after an intensive water flooding of the core. The model developed and the computer code KINKOR are thought to be tools for the general understanding of the water ingress phenomena and should be looked at as basis for more elaborated systems. (orig./HP) [de

  1. Designing Scenarios for Controller-in-the-Loop Air Traffic Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupfer, Michael; Mercer, Joey; Cabrall, Chris; Homola, Jeff; Callantine, Todd

    2013-01-01

    Within the Human Factors Division at NASA Ames Research Center the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) is developing advanced automation concepts that help to transform the National Airspace System into NextGen, the Next Generation Air Transportation System. High-fidelity human-in-the-loop (HITL) simulations are used as a means to investigate and develop roles, responsibilities, support tools, and requirements for human operators and automation. This paper describes the traffic scenario design process and strategies as used by AOL researchers. Details are presented on building scenarios for specific simulation objectives using various design strategies. A focus is set on creating scenarios based on recorded real world traffic for terminal-area simulations.

  2. The Safety of Hospital Beds: Ingress, Egress, and In-Bed Mobility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morse, Janice M; Gervais, Pierre; Pooler, Charlotte; Merryweather, Andrew; Doig, Alexa K; Bloswick, Donald

    2015-01-01

    To explore the safety of the standard and the low hospital bed, we report on a microanalysis of 15 patients' ability to ingress, move about the bed, and egress. The 15 participants were purposefully selected with various disabilities. Bed conditions were randomized with side rails up or down and one low bed with side rails down. We explored the patients' use of the side rails, bed height, ability to lift their legs onto the mattress, and ability to turn, egress, and walk back to the chair. The standard bed was too high for some participants, both for ingress and egress. Side rails were used by most participants when entering, turning in bed, and exiting. We recommend that side rails be reconsidered as a means to facilitate in-bed movement, ingress, and egress. Furthermore, single deck height settings for all patients are not optimal. Low beds as a safety measure must be re-evaluated.

  3. Undulator Hall Air Temperature Fault Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sevilla, J.

    2010-01-01

    Recent experience indicates that the LCLS undulator segments must not, at any time following tuning, be allowed to change temperature by more than about ±2.5 C or the magnetic center will irreversibly shift outside of acceptable tolerances. This vulnerability raises a concern that under fault conditions the ambient temperature in the Undulator Hall might go outside of the safe range and potentially could require removal and retuning of all the segments. In this note we estimate changes that can be expected in the Undulator Hall air temperature for three fault scenarios: (1) System-wide power failure; (2) Heating Ventilation and Air Conditioning (HVAC) system shutdown; and (3) HVAC system temperature regulation fault. We find that for either a system-wide power failure or an HVAC system shutdown (with the technical equipment left on), the short-term temperature changes of the air would be modest due to the ability of the walls and floor to act as a heat ballast. No action would be needed to protect the undulator system in the event of a system-wide power failure. Some action to adjust the heat balance, in the case of the HVAC power failure with the equipment left on, might be desirable but is not required. On the other hand, a temperature regulation failure of the HVAC system can quickly cause large excursions in air temperature and prompt action would be required to avoid damage to the undulator system.

  4. Exploring synergies between climate and air quality policies using long-term global and regional emission scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Braspenning Radu, Olivia; van den Berg, Maarten; Klimont, Zbigniew; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Janssens-Maenhout, Greet; Muntean, Marilena; Heyes, Chris; Dentener, Frank; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    Abstract In this paper, we present ten scenarios developed using the IMAGE2.4 framework (Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment) to explore how different assumptions on future climate and air pollution policies influence emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants. These scenarios

  5. Ingress in Geography: Portals to Academic Success?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Davis, Michael

    2017-01-01

    Niantic Labs has developed an augmented virtual reality mobile app game called Ingress in which agents must seek out and control locations for their designated factions. The app uses the Google Maps interface along with GPS to enhance a geocaching-like experience with elements of other classical games such as capture-the-flag. This study aims to…

  6. Ingression-type cell migration drives vegetal endoderm internalisation in the Xenopus gastrula.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, Jason Wh; Winklbauer, Rudolf

    2017-08-10

    During amphibian gastrulation, presumptive endoderm is internalised as part of vegetal rotation, a large-scale movement that encompasses the whole vegetal half of the embryo. It has been considered a gastrulation process unique to amphibians, but we show that at the cell level, endoderm internalisation exhibits characteristics reminiscent of bottle cell formation and ingression, known mechanisms of germ layer internalisation. During ingression proper, cells leave a single-layered epithelium. In vegetal rotation, the process occurs in a multilayered cell mass; we refer to it as ingression-type cell migration. Endoderm cells move by amoeboid shape changes, but in contrast to other instances of amoeboid migration, trailing edge retraction involves ephrinB1-dependent macropinocytosis and trans -endocytosis. Moreover, although cells are separated by wide gaps, they are connected by filiform protrusions, and their migration depends on C-cadherin and the matrix protein fibronectin. Cells move in the same direction but at different velocities, to rearrange by differential migration.

  7. Ship emissions and air pollution in Denmark. Present situation and future scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Roerdam Olesen, H.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.; Christensen, Jesper; Plejdrup, M. (Aarhus Univ., National Environmental Research Institute, Aarhus (Denmark))

    2009-07-01

    Ship traffic in the Danish marine waters is considered to be important for air quality in Danish cities and in Denmark in general. Since 2006 the so-called Automatic Identification System (AIS) has registered ship activities in Danish marine waters. All ships larger than 300 GT (Gross Tonnage) are required to carry a transponder, which transmits information on the ship's identity and position to land-based receiving stations. This information makes it possible to map ship emissions in much greater detail than previously feasible. This opportunity has now been utilised to create a new emission inventory for ships in the Danish marine waters. A main objective of this work is to assess the contribution from ships to concentration levels of various pollutants. For the modelling of concentrations, a new version of the air pollution model DEHM (Danish Eulerian Hemispheric Model) has been applied - a version with a higher geographical resolution than the previous version. The International Maritime Organisation (IMO) has adopted new regulations in order to reduce pollution from ships with sulphur dioxide (SO{sub 2}) and nitrogen oxides (NO{sub X}) in the period until 2020. It is also the objective of this work to investigate the effect of this regulation on air quality in Denmark. This is done through scenario calculations for air quality for 2020 based on expected emission reductions. Also for land-based sources of SO{sub 2}, NO{sub x} and particles, emission reductions are envisaged before 2020. The scenario calculation for 2020 takes account of these reductions. As one of the main parts of the study a new, improved inventory of ship emissions in the Danish marine waters has been established. Both new (NERI) and old (EMEP, 2008) emission inventories have been applied for model calculations of air quality in Denmark, thus allowing an assessment of the effect of the revised inventory. Furthermore, scenario calculations for 2011 and 2020 have been carried out, in

  8. Chloride Ingress in Chemically Activated Calcined Clay-Based Cement

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph Mwiti Marangu

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Chloride-laden environments pose serious durability concerns in cement based materials. This paper presents the findings of chloride ingress in chemically activated calcined Clay-Ordinary Portland Cement blended mortars. Results are also presented for compressive strength development and porosity tests. Sampled clays were incinerated at a temperature of 800°C for 4 hours. The resultant calcined clay was blended with Ordinary Portland Cement (OPC at replacement level of 35% by mass of OPC to make test cement labeled PCC35. Mortar prisms measuring 40 mm × 40 mm × 160 mm were cast using PCC35 with 0.5 M Na2SO4 solution as a chemical activator instead of water. Compressive strength was determined at 28th day of curing. As a control, OPC, Portland Pozzolana Cement (PPC, and PCC35 were similarly investigated without use of activator. After the 28th day of curing, mortar specimens were subjected to accelerated chloride ingress, porosity, compressive strength tests, and chloride profiling. Subsequently, apparent diffusion coefficients (Dapp were estimated from solutions to Fick’s second law of diffusion. Compressive strength increased after exposure to the chloride rich media in all cement categories. Chemically activated PCC35 exhibited higher compressive strength compared to nonactivated PCC35. However, chemically activated PCC35 had the least gain in compressive strength, lower porosity, and lower chloride ingress in terms of Dapp, compared to OPC, PPC, and nonactivated PCC35.

  9. Prediction of chloride ingress and binding in cement paste

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geiker, Mette Rica; Nielsen, Erik Pram; Herforth, Duncan

    2007-01-01

    This paper summarizes recent work on an analytical model for predicting the ingress rate of chlorides in cement-based materials. An integral part of this is a thermodynamic model for predicting the phase equilibria in hydrated Portland cement. The model’s ability to predict chloride binding...... in Portland cement pastes at any content of chloride, alkalis, sulfates and carbonate was verified experimentally and found to be equally valid when applied to other data in the literature. The thermodynamic model for predicting the phase equilibria in hydrated Portland cement was introduced into an existing...... Finite Difference Model for the ingress of chlorides into concrete which takes into account its multi-component nature. The “composite theory” was then used to predict the diffusivity of each ion based on the phase assemblage present in the hydrated Portland cement paste. Agreement was found between...

  10. Finnish air traffic until 2025. Four scenarios; Suomen lentoliikenne vuoteen 2025 - neljae skenaariota

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aalto, E.; Pollanen, M.; Mantynen, J.; Makela, T.; Rauhamaki, H. [Tampere Univ. of Technology (Finland). Transport Research Centre Verne

    2012-07-01

    Air traffic is a very dynamic field of business. Its operating environment features multiple factors of change, which affect air traffic and its operators both in the short and in the long run. This study charts the significant factors in Finnish air traffic and creates four distinct scenarios for the future. These scenarios were produced on the basis of the currently available facts and are attempts to provide several alternatives for the future. The study's goal has been to produce a visionary depiction that helps one to visualise and understand the whole picture. The perspective chosen for consideration of the future is the year 2025. The study describes four scenarios differing clearly from each other. In the first, entitled Globaalista maailmasta blokkeihin (From a global world to blocs), states form clusters and regional co-operation takes precedence over the current global direction of development. The second, Eurooppa omalla reitillaeaen (Europe on its own way), depicts Europe ahead of the rest of the world in terms of environmental regulation for air traffic. Uudistuksilla talouskukoistukseen (Economic boom through reforms) is based on an optimistic economic outlook. In contrast, Oeljykriisistae taloustaantumaan (From oil crisis to recession), describes a world where economic growth has been forestalled by rising oil prices due to increasing scarcity. The study investigates passenger numbers, air traffic within Finland, the international route network, and the changes these display in the various scenarios. The estimates are designed to highlight the development trends affecting air traffic in different operating environments. Since Finland is a small country and set apart from the rest of Europe in a fashion similar to island states, air traffic is of major importance and cannot be efficiently replaced by other forms of traffic. In particular, the individual scenarios stress the impact of international interaction and economic development with regard

  11. Designing a Methodology for Future Air Travel Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wuebbles, Donald J.; Baughcum, Steven L.; Gerstle, John H.; Edmonds, Jae; Kinnison, Douglas E.; Krull, Nick; Metwally, Munir; Mortlock, Alan; Prather, Michael J.

    1992-01-01

    The growing demand on air travel throughout the world has prompted several proposals for the development of commercial aircraft capable of transporting a large number of passengers at supersonic speeds. Emissions from a projected fleet of such aircraft, referred to as high-speed civil transports (HSCT's), are being studied because of their possible effects on the chemistry and physics of the global atmosphere, in particular, on stratospheric ozone. At the same time, there is growing concern about the effects on ozone from the emissions of current (primarily subsonic) aircraft emissions. Evaluating the potential atmospheric impact of aircraft emissions from HSCT's requires a scientifically sound understanding of where the aircraft fly and under what conditions the aircraft effluents are injected into the atmosphere. A preliminary set of emissions scenarios are presented. These scenarios will be used to understand the sensitivity of environment effects to a range of fleet operations, flight conditions, and aircraft specifications. The baseline specifications for the scenarios are provided: the criteria to be used for developing the scenarios are defined, the required data base for initiating the development of the scenarios is established, and the state of the art for those scenarios that have already been developed is discussed. An important aspect of the assessment will be the evaluation of realistic projections of emissions as a function of both geographical distribution and altitude from an economically viable commercial HSCT fleet. With an assumed introduction date of around the year 2005, it is anticipated that there will be no HSCT aircraft in the global fleet at that time. However, projections show that, by 2015, the HSCT fleet could reach significant size. We assume these projections of HSCT and subsonic fleets for about 2015 can the be used as input to global atmospheric chemistry models to evaluate the impact of the HSCT fleets, relative to an all

  12. French gas cooled reactor experience with moisture ingress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bastien, D.; Brie, M.

    1995-01-01

    During the history of operation of six gas cooled reactors in France, some experience has been gained with accidental water ingress into the primary system. This occurred as a result of leaks in steam generators. This paper describes the cause of the leaks, and the resulting consequences. (author). 2 refs, 8 figs

  13. Air quality impacts of distributed power generation in the South Coast Air Basin of California 1: Scenario development and modeling analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, M. A.; Carreras-Sospedra, M.; Medrano, M.; Brouwer, J.; Samuelsen, G. S.; Dabdub, D.

    Distributed generation (DG) is generally defined as the operation of many small stationary power generators throughout an urban air basin. Although DG has the potential to supply a significant portion of the increased power demands in California and the rest of the United States, it may lead to increased levels of in-basin pollutants and adversely impact urban air quality. This study focuses on two main objectives: (1) the systematic characterization of DG installation in urban air basins, and (2) the simulation of potential air quality impacts using a state-of-the-art three-dimensional computational model. A general and systematic approach is devised to construct five realistic and 21 spanning scenarios of DG implementation in the South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) of California. Realistic scenarios reflect an anticipated level of DG deployment in the SoCAB by the year 2010. Spanning scenarios are developed to determine the potential impacts of unexpected outcomes. Realistic implementations of DG in the SoCAB result in small differences in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in the basin compared to the baseline simulations. The baseline accounts for population increase, but does not consider any future emissions control measures. Model results for spanning implementations with extra high DG market penetration show that domain-wide ozone peak concentrations increase significantly. Also, air quality impacts of spanning implementations when DG operate during a 6-h period are larger than when the same amount of emissions are introduced during a 24-h period.

  14. Contaminant ingress into multizone buildings: An analytical state-space approach

    KAUST Repository

    Parker, Simon; Coffey, Chris; Gravesen, Jens; Kirkpatrick, James; Ratcliffe, Keith; Lingard, Bryan; Nally, James

    2013-01-01

    The ingress of exterior contaminants into buildings is often assessed by treating the building interior as a single well-mixed space. Multizone modelling provides an alternative way of representing buildings that can estimate concentration time

  15. Large Gain in Air Quality Compared to an Alternative Anthropogenic Emissions Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daskalakis, Nikos; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Myriokefalitakis, Stelios; Fanourgakis, George S.; Kanakidou, Maria

    2016-01-01

    During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistrytransport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980) or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980), and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the yearto- year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  16. Large gain in air quality compared to an alternative anthropogenic emissions scenario

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Daskalakis

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available During the last 30 years, significant effort has been made to improve air quality through legislation for emissions reduction. Global three-dimensional chemistry-transport simulations of atmospheric composition over the past 3 decades have been performed to estimate what the air quality levels would have been under a scenario of stagnation of anthropogenic emissions per capita as in 1980, accounting for the population increase (BA1980 or using the standard practice of neglecting it (AE1980, and how they compare to the historical changes in air quality levels. The simulations are based on assimilated meteorology to account for the year-to-year observed climate variability and on different scenarios of anthropogenic emissions of pollutants. The ACCMIP historical emissions dataset is used as the starting point. Our sensitivity simulations provide clear indications that air quality legislation and technology developments have limited the rapid increase of air pollutants. The achieved reductions in concentrations of nitrogen oxides, carbon monoxide, black carbon, and sulfate aerosols are found to be significant when comparing to both BA1980 and AE1980 simulations that neglect any measures applied for the protection of the environment. We also show the potentially large tropospheric air quality benefit from the development of cleaner technology used by the growing global population. These 30-year hindcast sensitivity simulations demonstrate that the actual benefit in air quality due to air pollution legislation and technological advances is higher than the gain calculated by a simple comparison against a constant anthropogenic emissions simulation, as is usually done. Our results also indicate that over China and India the beneficial technological advances for the air quality may have been masked by the explosive increase in local population and the disproportional increase in energy demand partially due to the globalization of the economy.

  17. Climate and air quality-driven scenarios of ozone and aerosol precursor abatement

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rypdal, Kristin; Rive, Nathan; Berntsen, Terje; Fagerli, Hilde; Klimont, Zbigniew; Mideksa, Torben K.; Fuglestvedt, Jan S.

    2009-01-01

    In addition to causing domestic and regional environmental effects, many air pollutants contribute to radiative forcing (RF) of the climate system. However, climate effects are not considered when cost-effective abatement targets for these pollutants are established, nor are they included in current international climate agreements. We construct air pollution abatement scenarios in 2030 which target cost-effective reductions in RF in the EU, USA, and China and compare these to abatement scenarios which instead target regional ozone effects and particulate matter concentrations. Our analysis covers emissions of PM (fine, black carbon and organic carbon), SO 2 , NO x , CH 4 , VOCs, and CO. We find that the effect synergies are strong for PM/BC, VOC, CO and CH 4 . While an air quality strategy targeted at reducing ozone will also reduce RF, this will not be the case for a strategy targeting particulate matter. Abatement in China dominates RF reduction, but there are cheap abatement options also available in the EU and USA. The justification for international cooperation on air quality issues is underlined when the co-benefits of reduced RF are considered. Some species, most importantly SO 2 , contribute a negative forcing on climate. We suggest that given current knowledge, NO x and SO 2 should be ignored in RF-targeted abatement policies.

  18. Fission product release by fuel oxidation after water ingress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schreiber.

    1990-01-01

    On the basis of data obtained by a literature search, a computer code has been established for the calculation of the degree of oxidation of the fuel in the damaged fuel particles, and hence of the fission product release as a function of the time period of steam ingress. (orig.) [de

  19. Discussion on amount of water ingress mass in steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture accident of high- temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Yan; Zheng Yanhua; Shi Lei; Li Fu; Sun Ximing

    2009-01-01

    The steam generator heat-exchange tube rupture (SGTR) accident which will result in the water ingress to the primary circuit of reactor is an important and particular accident for high-temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR). The analysis of the water ingress accident is significant for verifying the inherent safety characteristics of HTGR. The amount of water ingress mass is one of the decisive factors for the seriousness of the accident consequence. The 250 MW Pebble-bed Modular High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTR-PM) designed by Institute of Nuclear and New Energy Technology of Tsinghua University was selected as an example of analysis. The analysis results show that the amount of water ingress mass is not only affected directly with the broken position and the broken area of the tubes, but also related with the diameter of draining piping and restrictor, draining control valve, action setting of emptier system. With reasonable parameters chosen, the water in steam generator could be drained effectively, so it will prevent the primary circuit of reactor from water ingress in large quantity and reduce the radioactive isotopes ingress to the secondary circuit. (authors)

  20. Technical Issues Associated with Air Ingression During Core Degradation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Powers, Dana A.

    2000-01-01

    This paper has shown that it is possible to get significant air intrusion into a ruptured reactor vessel even from a reactor cavity with restricted access. This suggests that there is some importance to considering the consequences of air intrusion following vessel penetration by core debris. The consequences will depend on the nature of core degradation in air and other oxidizing gases. If, indeed, fuel becomes exposed to strongly oxidizing gases, significant releases of ruthenium and hexavalent urania can be expected. Hexavalent urania could alter the nature of cesium release and cesium revaporization from the reactor coolant system. Hexavalent urania could destabilize CSI and enhance the formation of gaseous iodine unless there are other materials that will react readily with atomic iodine along the flow path to the reactor containment

  1. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hendriks, Carlijn; Forsell, Nicklas; Kiesewetter, Gregor; Schaap, Martijn; Schöpp, Wolfgang

    2016-11-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly isoprene) may increase significantly in the coming decades if short-rotation coppice plantations are expanded strongly to meet the increased biofuel demand resulting from the EU decarbonisation targets. This study investigates the competing effects of anticipated trends in land use change, anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions and climate change on European ground level ozone concentrations and related health and environmental impacts until 2050. The work is based on a consistent set of energy consumption scenarios that underlie current EU climate and air quality policy proposals: a current legislation case, and an ambitious decarbonisation case. The Greenhouse Gas-Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) integrated assessment model was used to calculate air pollutant emissions for these scenarios, while land use change because of bioenergy demand was calculated by the Global Biosphere Model (GLOBIOM). These datasets were fed into the chemistry transport model LOTOS-EUROS to calculate the impact on ground level ozone concentrations. Health damage because of high ground level ozone concentrations is projected to decline significantly towards 2030 and 2050 under current climate conditions for both energy scenarios. Damage to plants is also expected to decrease but to a smaller extent. The projected change in anthropogenic ozone precursor emissions is found to have a larger impact on ozone damage than land use change. The increasing effect of a warming climate (+2-5 °C across Europe in summer) on ozone concentrations and associated health damage, however, might be higher than the reduction achieved by cutting back European ozone precursor emissions. Global

  2. Probabilistic Models and Computational Methods for Chloride Ingress in Concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Engelund, S.

    Within the last decades it has been recognized that reinforced concrete structures are subject to a number of destructive mechanisms which might affect the structure in such a way that it is not able to fulfil its purpose efficiently. The present report focuses on chloride ingress and chloride...

  3. Characteristic behaviour of Pebble Bed High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactors during water ingress events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Khoza, Samukelisiwe N.; Serfontein, Dawid E.; Reitsma, Frederik

    2014-01-01

    The presence of water on the tube-side of the steam generators in high temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTGRs) with indirect cycle layouts presents a possibility for a penetration of neutron moderating steam into the core, which may cause a power excursion. This article presents results on the effect of water ingress into the core of the two South African Pebble Bed Modular Reactor design concepts, i.e. the PBMR-200 MW th and the PBMR-400 MW th developed by PBMR SOC Ltd. The VSOP 99/05 suite of codes was used for the simulation of this event. Partial steam vapour pressures were added in stages into the primary circuit in order to investigate the effect of water ingress on reactivity, power profiles and thermal neutron flux profiles. The effects of water ingress into the core are explained by increased neutron moderation, due to the addition of 1 H, which leads to a decrease in resonance capture by 238 U and therefore an increase in the multiplication factor. The more effective moderation of neutrons by definition reduces the fast neutron flux and increases the thermal flux in the core, i.e. leads to a softer spectrum. The more effective moderation also increases the average increase in lethargy between collisions of a neutron with successive fuel kernels, which reduces the probability for neutron capture in the radiative capture resonances of 238 U. The resulting higher resonance escape probability also increases the thermal flux in the core. The softening of the neutron spectrum leads to an increased effective microscopic fission cross section in the fissile isotopes and thus to increased neutron absorption for fission, which reduces the remaining number of neutrons that can diffuse into the reflectors. Therefore water ingress into the core leads to a reduced thermal neutron flux in the reflectors. The power density spatial distribution behaved similarly to the thermal neutron flux in the core. Analysis of possible mechanisms was conducted. The results show that

  4. Assessments of Water Ingress Accidents in a Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zuoyi; Dong Yujie; Scherer, Winfried

    2005-01-01

    Severe water ingress accidents in the 200-MW HTR-module were assessed to determine the safety margins of modular pebble-bed high-temperature gas-cooled reactors (HTR-module). The 200-MW HTR-module was designed by Siemens under the criteria that no active safety protection systems were necessary because of its inherent safe nature. For simulating the behavior of the HTR-module during severe water ingress accidents, a water, steam, and helium multiphase cavity model was developed and implemented in the dynamic simulator for nuclear power plants (DSNP) simulation system. Comparisons of the DSNP simulations incorporating these models with experiments and with calculations using the time-dependent neutronics and temperature dynamics code were made to validate the simulation. The analysis of the primary circuit showed that the maximum water concentration increase in the reactor core was 3 s). The water vaporization in the steam generator and characteristics of water transport from the steam generator to the reactor core would reduce the rate of water ingress into the reactor core. The analysis of a full cavitation of the feedwater pump showed that if the secondary circuit could be depressurized, the feedwater pump would be stopped by the full cavitation. This limits the water transported from the deaerator to the steam generator. A comprehensive simulation of the HTR-module power plant showed that the water inventory in the primary circuit was limited to ∼3000 kg. The nuclear reactivity increase caused by the water ingress would lead to a fast power excursion, which would be inherently counterbalanced by negative feedback effects. The integrity of the fuel elements, because the safety-relevant temperature limit of 1600 deg. C is not reached in any case, is not challenged

  5. Working Toward Policy-Relevant Air Quality Emissions Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holloway, T.

    2010-12-01

    to meet the increasingly intricate demands of both advanced air quality models and more realistic and relevant policy scenarios.

  6. Durability testing of low clinker blends - chloride ingress in similar strength mortar exposed to seawater

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Geiker, Mette Rica; De Weerdt, Klaartje; Garzón, Sergio Ferreiro

    2017-01-01

    Resistance to chloride ingress of ten different binders was investigated. Most of the binders were prepared with 35% substitution of a new clinker by limestone filler, calcined clay, burnt shale and/or siliceous fly ash. Mortar samples with similar design compressive strength after 90 days were e...... exposed to artificial sea-water for 270 days. The results indicate that the use of alternative binders may lead to up to around 15% reduction in CO2 emission without compromising 90 days compressive strength and resistance to chloride ingress in marine exposure....

  7. Evaluation of pressure response in the Los Alamos controlled air incinerator during three incident scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vavruska, J.S.; Elsberry, K.; Thompson, T.K.; Pendergrass, J.A.

    1996-01-01

    The Los Alamos Controlled Air Incinerator (CAI) is a system designed to accept radioactive mixed waste containing alpha-emitting radionuclides. A mathematical model was developed to predict the pressure response throughout the offgas treatment system of the CAI during three hypothetical incident scenarios. The scenarios examined included: (1) loss of burner flame and failure of the flame safeguard system with subsequent reignition of fuel gas in the primary chamber, (2) pyrolytic gas buildup from a waste package due to loss of induced draft and subsequent restoration of induced draft, and (3) accidental charging of propellant spray cans in a solid waste package to the primary chamber during a normal feed cycle. For each of the three scenarios, the finite element computer model was able to determine the transient pressure surge and decay response throughout the system. Of particular interest were the maximum absolute pressures attainable at critical points in the system as well as maximum differential pressures across the high efficiency particulate air (HEPA) filters. Modeling results indicated that all three of the scenarios resulted in maximum HEPA filter differential pressures well below the maximum allowable levels

  8. Oxygen ingress study of 3D printed gaseous radiation detector enclosures

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steer, Christopher A.; Durose, Aaron [AWE, Alderrnaston, Reading, Berkshire, RG7 4PR (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-01

    As part of our ongoing studies into the potential application of 3D printing techniques to gaseous radiation detectors, we have studied the ability of 3D printed enclosures to resist environmental oxygen ingress. A set of cuboid and hexagonal prism shaped enclosures with wall thicknesses of 4 mm, 6 mm, 8 mm and 10 mm were designed and printed in nylon using a EOSINT P 730 Selective Laser Sintering 3D printer system These test enclosures provide a comparison of different environmental gas ingress for different 3D printing techniques. The rate of change of oxygen concentration was found to be linear, decreasing as the wall thickness increases. It was also found that the hexagonal prism geometry produced a lower rate of change of oxygen concentration compared with the cuboid shaped enclosures. Possible reasons as to why these results were obtained are discussed The implications for the this study for deployable systems are also discussed (authors)

  9. Oxygen ingress study of 3D printed gaseous radiation detector enclosures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steer, Christopher A.; Durose, Aaron

    2015-01-01

    As part of our ongoing studies into the potential application of 3D printing techniques to gaseous radiation detectors, we have studied the ability of 3D printed enclosures to resist environmental oxygen ingress. A set of cuboid and hexagonal prism shaped enclosures with wall thicknesses of 4 mm, 6 mm, 8 mm and 10 mm were designed and printed in nylon using a EOSINT P 730 Selective Laser Sintering 3D printer system These test enclosures provide a comparison of different environmental gas ingress for different 3D printing techniques. The rate of change of oxygen concentration was found to be linear, decreasing as the wall thickness increases. It was also found that the hexagonal prism geometry produced a lower rate of change of oxygen concentration compared with the cuboid shaped enclosures. Possible reasons as to why these results were obtained are discussed The implications for the this study for deployable systems are also discussed (authors)

  10. Moisture ingress into electronics enclosures under isothermal conditions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Staliulionis, Zygimantas; Jabbaribehnam, Mirmasoud; Hattel, Jesper Henri

    2016-01-01

    loads are still not understood well by design engineers, therefore this field has become one of the bottlenecks in the electronics system design. The objective of this paper is to model moisture ingress into an electronics enclosure under isothermal conditions. The moisture diffusion model is based......The number of electronics used in outdoor environment is constantly growing. The humidity causes about 19 % of all electronics failures and, especially, moisture increases these problems due to the ongoing process of miniaturization and lower power consumption of electronic components. Moisture...

  11. Chloride ingress in cracked concrete : A laser induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Savija, B.; Schlangen, E.; Pacheco Farias, J.; Millar, S.; Eichler, T.; Wilsch, G.

    2014-01-01

    racks are always present in reinforced concrete structures. In the presented research, influence of mechanical cracks on chloride ingress is studied. A compact reinforced concrete specimen was designed, mimicking the cracking behaviour of beam elements. Cracks of different widths were induced by

  12. Simulation of lumbar and neck angle flexion while ingress of paratransit (angkot in Indonesia as a preliminary design study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yukhi Mustaqim Kusuma Sya’bana

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available This is the preliminary finding of a study to simulate lumbar and neck flexion while ingress to the paratransit. The result of simulation will determine design aspect criteria as a preliminary step before ideation and implementation design steps. Biomechanics of Bodies (BoB is software that used to represent passenger task during paratransit ingress simulation, with skeleton model that used is height 165 cm and weight 65 kg. Environment to represent this simulation is measured Suzuki Carry SS 2013 as a private car that has been modified into a public transportation in accordance with the Indonesian government road-worthy test. Due to the low height of the entrance and the high ground clearance, lumbar and neck joint angle was a focus of this ingress simulation. The peak angle at the neck joint is 40° when 2 s skeleton nod in the door limitation ingress and lumbar flexion is 70° when 5 s skeleton is walking while bend over that will increase the load on that area. Based on biomechanical simulation approach, we may suggest the dimension of public transportation design framework developments, especially paratransit.

  13. Effect of steam corrosion on core post strength loss: I. Low, chronic steam ingress rates

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wichner, R.P.

    1976-10-01

    The purpose of the study was to assess the effect of chronic, low levels of steam ingress into the primary system of the HTGR on the corrosion, and consequent strength loss of the core support posts. The assessment proceeded through the following three steps: (1) The impurity composition in the primary system was estimated as a function of a range of steady ingress rates of from 0.001 to 1.0 g/sec, both by means of an analysis of the Dragon steam ingress experiment and a computer code, TIMOX, which treats the primary system as a well-mixed pot. (2) The core post burnoffs which result from 40-year exposures to these determined impurity atmospheres were then estimated using a corrosion rate expression derived from published ATJ-graphite corrosion rate data. Burnoffs were determined for both the core posts at the nominal and the maximum sustained temperature, estimated to be 90 0 C above nominal. (3) The final step involved assessment of the degree of strength loss resulting from the estimated burnoffs. An empirical equation was developed for this purpose which compares reasonably well with strength loss data for a number of different graphites and specimen geometries

  14. Deuterium ingress at rolled joints in Embalse nuclear power plant

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramos Nervi, J. E.; Schroeter, F.

    2013-01-01

    Deuterium ingress model at the Rolled Joint has been extensively used for CANDU Nuclear Power Plants Operators in the Life Management of the Pressure Tubes. The importance of understanding the model is vital to avoid delayed hydride cracking at the Rolled Joint. This work reports the first step on develop the model presented on literature to be used in Argentinean CANDU 6, Embalse Nuclear Power Plant. (author)

  15. Scenarios for global emissions from air traffic. The development of regional and gridded (5 degrees x 5 degrees) emissions scenarios for aircraft and for surface sources, based on CPB scenarios and existing emission inventories for aircraft and surface sources

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Olivier JGJ; LAE

    1995-01-01

    An estimate was made of present global emissions from air traffic using statistical information on fuel consumption, aircraft types and applying emission factors for various compounds. To generate scenarios for future emissions from air traffic, assumptions were used regarding the development of the

  16. Vision-Aided Autonomous Landing and Ingress of Micro Aerial Vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brockers, Roland; Ma, Jeremy C.; Matthies, Larry H.; Bouffard, Patrick

    2012-01-01

    Micro aerial vehicles have limited sensor suites and computational power. For reconnaissance tasks and to conserve energy, these systems need the ability to autonomously land at vantage points or enter buildings (ingress). But for autonomous navigation, information is needed to identify and guide the vehicle to the target. Vision algorithms can provide egomotion estimation and target detection using input from cameras that are easy to include in miniature systems.

  17. Monitoring Ingress of Moisture in Structural Concrete Using a Novel Optical-Based Sensor Approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yeo, T L; Cox, M A C; Boswell, L F; Sun, T; Grattan, K T V

    2006-01-01

    The detection of moisture ingress in concrete is important for structural monitoring and in this work is realised by monitoring the shift in the characteristic wavelength of a fibre Bragg grating-based sensor. The sensor relies upon a moisture-sensitive polymer layer deposited on the fibre Bragg grating (FBG) and the strain induced on it as a result of polymer swelling is monitored. Moisture ingress experiments were carried out using two such optical fibre sensors, placed at varying distances from the edge of the face of standard concrete cubes to the inner part of the concrete sample and subjected to water at a constant temperature. Information on the properties of different types of concrete and thus potentially on the migration of dissolved salts and their effect on reinforcement bars within concrete can be obtained

  18. Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part I: Background, emission scenarios and evaluation of meteorological predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Litao; Jang, Carey; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Qiang; Streets, David; Fu, Joshua; Lei, Yu; Schreifels, Jeremy; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming; Lam, Yun-Fat; Lin, Jerry; Meskhidze, Nicholas; Voorhees, Scott; Evarts, Dale; Phillips, Sharon

    2010-09-01

    Under the 11th Five Year Plan (FYP, 2006-2010) for national environmental protection by the Chinese government, the overarching goal for sulfur dioxide (SO 2) controls is to achieve a total national emissions level of SO 2 in 2010 10% lower than the level in 2005. A similar nitrogen oxides (NO x) emissions control plan is currently under development and could be enforced during the 12th FYP (2011-2015). In this study, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S.EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) modeling system was applied to assess the air quality improvement that would result from the targeted SO 2 and NO x emission controls in China. Four emission scenarios — the base year 2005, the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) scenario, the 2010 SO 2 control scenario, and the 2010 NO x control scenario—were constructed and simulated to assess the air quality change from the national control plan. The Fifth-Generation NCAR/Penn State Mesoscale Model (MM5) was applied to generate the meteorological fields for the CMAQ simulations. In this Part I paper, the model performance for the simulated meteorology was evaluated against observations for the base case in terms of temperature, wind speed, wind direction, and precipitation. It is shown that MM5 model gives an overall good performance for these meteorological variables. The generated meteorological fields are acceptable for using in the CMAQ modeling.

  19. Sustainable passenger road transport scenarios to reduce fuel consumption, air pollutants and GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavez-Baeza, Carlos; Sheinbaum-Pardo, Claudia

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents passenger road transport scenarios that may assist the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) in achieving lower emissions in both criteria air pollutants (CO, NO x , NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds), and PM 10 ) and GHG (greenhouse gas) (CH 4 , N 2 O and CO 2 ), while also promoting better mobility and quality of life in this region. We developed a bottom-up model to estimate the historical trends of energy demand, criteria air pollutants and GHG emissions caused by passenger vehicles circulating in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) in order to construct a baseline scenario and two mitigation scenarios that project their impact to 2028. Mitigation scenario “eff” considers increasing fuel efficiencies and introducing new technologies for vehicle emission controls. Mitigation scenario “BRT” considers a modal shift from private car trips to a Bus Rapid Transport system. Our results show significant reductions in air pollutants and GHG emissions. Incentives and environmental regulations are needed to enable these scenarios. - Highlights: • More than 4.2 million passenger vehicles in the MCMA (Mexico City Metropolitan Area) that represent 61% of criteria pollutants and 44% of GHG (greenhouse gas) emissions. • Emissions of CO, NO x and NMVOC (non-methane volatile organic compounds) in baseline scenario decrease with respect to its 2008 value because emission standards. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG increase in baseline scenario. • Emissions of PM 10 and GHG decrease in eff + BRT scenario from year 2020. • Additional reductions are possible with better standards for diesel vehicles and other technologies

  20. A software tool for evaluation of hydrogen ingress in CANDU pressure tubes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mihalache, Maria; Vasile, Radu; Deaconu, Mariea

    2009-01-01

    The prediction of hydrogen isotopes concentration into the body and in the rolled joints of operating pressure tubes as a function of reactor hot hours is very important in many fitness-for-service assessments and end of life estimates. The rolled joints are high stress zones with potential for delayed hydride cracking. Predictive models for assessing the long-term deuterium ingress in both body and rolled joint of the pressure tubes have been implemented in a software tool, ROHID, developed in INR-Pitesti. ROHID is a PC-based Windows application with a user-friendly interface that predicts the equivalent hydrogen ingress for Zr-2.5Nb pressure tubes. It uses colour-coded reactor core maps to display the predicted deuterium concentration as a function of time for selected axial locations. Plots of deuterium versus axial location and time for individual pressure tubes are also available. Also, the software tool can predict the exceeding of hydrogen terminal solid solubility (HTSS) from hydrides during precipitation and dissolving processes as a function of time and axial location. (authors)

  1. Evaluation of ATP measurements to detect microbial ingress by wastewater and surface water in drinking water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vang, Óluva K; Corfitzen, Charlotte B; Smith, Christian; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen

    2014-11-01

    Fast and reliable methods are required for monitoring of microbial drinking water quality in order to protect public health. Adenosine triphosphate (ATP) was investigated as a potential real-time parameter for detecting microbial ingress in drinking water contaminated with wastewater or surface water. To investigate the ability of the ATP assay in detecting different contamination types, the contaminant was diluted with non-chlorinated drinking water. Wastewater, diluted at 10(4) in drinking water, was detected with the ATP assay, as well as 10(2) to 10(3) times diluted surface water. To improve the performance of the ATP assay in detecting microbial ingress in drinking water, different approaches were investigated, i.e. quantifying microbial ATP or applying reagents of different sensitivities to reduce measurement variations; however, none of these approaches contributed significantly in this respect. Compared to traditional microbiological methods, the ATP assay could detect wastewater and surface water in drinking water to a higher degree than total direct counts (TDCs), while both heterotrophic plate counts (HPC 22 °C and HPC 37 °C) and Colilert-18 (Escherichia coli and coliforms) were more sensitive than the ATP measurements, though with much longer response times. Continuous sampling combined with ATP measurements displays definite monitoring potential for microbial drinking water quality, since microbial ingress in drinking water can be detected in real-time with ATP measurements. The ability of the ATP assay to detect microbial ingress is influenced by both the ATP load from the contaminant itself and the ATP concentration in the specific drinking water. Consequently, a low ATP concentration of the specific drinking water facilitates a better detection of a potential contamination of the water supply with the ATP assay. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Air Oxidation Behaviors of Zircaloy-4 Cladding During a LOCA In Spent Fuel Pool

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bang, Je Geon; Chun, Tae Hyun; Kim, Sun Ki; Koo, Yang Hyun

    2014-01-01

    It is well known that air oxidation induces a serious degradation of the Zircaloy cladding material, compared with steam oxidation. From the oxidant point of view, in comparison with steam, chemical heat release during oxidation in air is higher by 80%, which may lead to a more rapid degradation of the Zircaloy cladding, and further evolution of the accident.. Additionally, the oxidation kinetics in air is much faster than in steam due to the formation of non-protective oxide layer. From the safety point of view, the barrier effect of the cladding against release of fission products is lost much earlier in air compared to steam. The objective of this study is to investigate the oxidation behaviors of fuel cladding in two different conditions such as isothermal and transient condition and to generate its kinetic data under an accident condition in the spent fuel pool. In this study, the oxidation behaviors and its kinetics of the Zircaloy-4 were investigated in air environment for various air ingress scenarios in the temperature range 600 .deg. C-1,400 .deg. C by thermo-gravimetric analysis. In this study, the oxidation behaviors of the Zircaloy-4 for both isothermal condition and transient condition were investigated in air environment. In comparison with isothermal condition, the retardation of oxidation rate in transient condition was observed at both 1,200 .deg. C and 1,400 .deg. C. This seems to be ascribed to the effect of thin oxide formed during a heating

  3. Emissions inventory and scenario analyses of air pollutants in Guangdong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hui; Meng, Jing

    2017-03-01

    Air pollution, causing significantly adverse health impacts and severe environmental problems, has raised great concerns in China in the past few decades. Guangdong Province faces major challenges to address the regional air pollution problem due to the lack of an emissions inventory. To fill this gap, an emissions inventory of primary fine particles (PM2.5) is compiled for the year 2012, and the key precursors (sulfur dioxide, nitrogen oxides) are identified. Furthermore, policy packages are simulated during the period of 2012‒2030 to investigate the potential mitigation effect. The results show that in 2012, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions in Guangdong Province were as high as (951.7, 1363.6, and 294.9) kt, respectively. Industrial production processes are the largest source of SO2 and PM2.5 emissions, and transport is the top contributor of NO x emissions. Both the baseline scenario and policy scenario are constructed based on projected energy growth and policy designs. Under the baseline scenario, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions will almost double in 2030 without proper emissions control policies. The suggested policies are categorized into end-of- pipe control in power plants (ECP), end-of-pipe control in industrial processes (ECI), fuel improvement (FI), energy efficiency improvement (EEI), substitution-pattern development (SPD), and energy saving options (ESO). With the implementation of all these policies, SO2, NO x , and PM2.5 emissions are projected to drop to (303.1, 585.4, and 102.4) kt, respectively, in 2030. This inventory and simulated results will provide deeper insights for policy makers to understand the present situation and the evolution of key emissions in Guangdong Province.

  4. Air quality impacts of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in Texas: evaluating three battery charging scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thompson, Tammy M; King, Carey W; Webber, Michael E; Allen, David T

    2011-01-01

    The air quality impacts of replacing approximately 20% of the gasoline-powered light duty vehicle miles traveled (VMT) with electric VMT by the year 2018 were examined for four major cities in Texas: Dallas/Ft Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio. Plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV) charging was assumed to occur on the electric grid controlled by the Electricity Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT), and three charging scenarios were examined: nighttime charging, charging to maximize battery life, and charging to maximize driver convenience. A subset of electricity generating units (EGUs) in Texas that were found to contribute the majority of the electricity generation needed to charge PHEVs at the times of day associated with each scenario was modeled using a regional photochemical model (CAMx). The net impacts of the PHEVs on the emissions of precursors to the formation of ozone included an increase in NO x emissions from EGUs during times of day when the vehicle is charging, and a decrease in NO x from mobile emissions. The changes in maximum daily 8 h ozone concentrations and average exposure potential at twelve air quality monitors in Texas were predicted on the basis of these changes in NO x emissions. For all scenarios, at all monitors, the impact of changes in vehicular emissions, rather than EGU emissions, dominated the ozone impact. In general, PHEVs lead to an increase in ozone during nighttime hours (due to decreased scavenging from both vehicles and EGU stacks) and a decrease in ozone during daytime hours. A few monitors showed a larger increase in ozone for the convenience charging scenario versus the other two scenarios. Additionally, cumulative ozone exposure results indicate that nighttime charging is most likely to reduce a measure of ozone exposure potential versus the other two scenarios.

  5. Reducing the ingress of urban noise through natural ventilation openings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oldham, D J; de Salis, M H; Sharples, S

    2004-01-01

    For buildings in busy urban areas affected by high levels of road traffic noise the potential to use natural ventilation can be limited by excessive noise entering through ventilation openings. This paper is concerned with techniques to reduce noise ingress into naturally ventilated buildings while minimizing airflow path resistance. A combined experimental and theoretical approach to the interaction of airflow and sound transmission through ventilators for natural ventilation applications is described. A key element of the investigation has been the development of testing facilities capable of measuring the airflow and sound transmission losses for a range of ventilation noise control strategies. It is demonstrated that a combination of sound reduction mechanisms -- one covering low frequency sound and another covering high frequency sound -- is required to attenuate effectively noise from typical urban sources. A method is proposed for quantifying the acoustic performance of different strategies to enable comparisons and informed decisions to be made leading to the possibility of a design methodology for optimizing the ventilation and acoustic performance of different strategies. The need for employing techniques for combating low frequency sound in tandem with techniques for reducing high frequency sound in reducing the ingress of noise from urban sources such as road traffic to acceptable levels is demonstrated. A technique is proposed for enabling the acoustic and airflow performance of apertures for natural ventilation systems to be designed simultaneously.

  6. Influence of temporal resolution and processing of exposure data on modeling of chloride ingress and reinforcement corrosion in concrete

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Flint, Madeleine; Michel, Alexander; Billington, Sarah L.

    2014-01-01

    a numerical heat and mass transport model that includes full coupling of heat, moisture and ion transport. Heat, moisture, and chloride concentration distributions were passed to a simplified reinforcement corrosion initiation and propagation model. The numerical study indicates that processing and temporal...... resolution of the exposure data has a considerable impact on long-term hygrothermal distribution, chloride ingress, and reinforcement section loss results. Use of time-averaged exposure data in the heat and mass transport model reduces the rate of chloride ingress in concrete and affects prediction...

  7. Operating experience of a sodium rig following the ingress of oil

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bell, A C; Mehew, R D; Robertson, C M [UKAEA, Dounreay, Thurso, Caithness, Scotland (United Kingdom)

    1980-05-01

    The experience of operating the Small Water Leak Rig at Dounreay in the two years following the ingress into the sodium of silicone oil from the pump is reported. The carbon penetration into the rig pipework has been monitored and has been found to agree with a diffusion model. The predictions based on this model have enabled an operating strategy to be determined to allow continued operation of the rig. (author)

  8. Operating experience of a sodium rig following the ingress of oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bell, A.C.; Mehew, R.D.; Robertson, C.M.

    1980-01-01

    The experience of operating the Small Water Leak Rig at Dounreay in the two years following the ingress into the sodium of silicone oil from the pump is reported. The carbon penetration into the rig pipework has been monitored and has been found to agree with a diffusion model. The predictions based on this model have enabled an operating strategy to be determined to allow continued operation of the rig. (author)

  9. The impact of traffic emissions on air quality in the Berlin-Brandenburg region - a case study on cycling scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuik, F.; Lauer, A.; von Schneidemesser, E.; Butler, T. M.

    2016-12-01

    Many European cities continue to struggle with exceedances of NO2 limit values at measurement sites near roads, of which a large contribution is attributed to emissions from traffic. In this study, we explore how urban air quality can be improved with different traffic measures using the example of the Berlin-Brandenburg region. In order to simulate urban background air quality we use the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) at a horizontal resolution of 1km. We use emission input data at a horizontal resolution of 1km obtained by downscaling TNO-MACC III emissions based on local proxy data including population and traffic densities. In addition we use a statistical approach combining the simulated urban background concentrations with information on traffic densities to estimate NO2 at street level. This helps assessing whether the emission scenarios studied here can lead to significant reductions in NO2 concentrations at street level. The emission scenarios in this study represent a range of scenarios in which car traffic is replaced with bicycle traffic. Part of this study was an initial discussion phase with stakeholders, including policy makers and NGOs. The discussions have shown that the different stakeholders are interested in a scientific assessment of the impact of replacing car traffic with bicycle traffic in the Berlin-Brandenburg urban area. Local policy makers responsible for city planning and implementing traffic measures can make best use of scientific modeling results if input data and scenarios are as realistic as possible. For these reasons, the scenarios cover very idealized optimistic ("all passenger cars are replaced by bicycles") and pessimistic ("all cyclists are replaced by cars") scenarios to explore the sensitivity of simulated urban background air quality to these changes, as well as additional scenarios based on city-specific data to analyze more realistic situations. Of particular interest is how these impact

  10. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sidborn, Magnus (Kemakta Konsult AB (Sweden)); Sandstroem, Bjoern (WSP Sverige AB (Sweden)); Tullborg, Eva-Lena (Terralogica AB (Sweden)); Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge (Amphos21 (Spain)); Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten (Microbial Analytics Sweden AB (Sweden))

    2010-11-15

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  11. SR-Site: Oxygen ingress in the rock at Forsmark during a glacial cycle

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sidborn, Magnus; Sandstroem, Bjoern; Tullborg, Eva-Lena; Salas, Joaquin; Maia, Flavia; Delos, Anne; Molinero, Jorge; Hallbeck, Lotta; Pedersen, Karsten

    2010-11-01

    The aim of this report is to assess the possibility for oxygen to be transported by glacial melt-water to canister positions in a final repository for spent nuclear fuel at the proposed location in Forsmark. The approach for this assessment is to combine reactive transport modelling with geological observations of present and historical indications of oxygen ingress. For safety assessment purposes a cautious approach in the modelling is required when estimating the extent of oxygen ingress. In this report, a cautious approach has been applied both in the conceptualisation of the problem and in the choice of input parameters used in the models. Oxygen consuming processes are only neglected in the modelling if they are expected to further decrease the extent of oxygen ingress. Several oxygen consuming processes have been identified, each of which may play an important role in the scavenging of oxygen along recharge flow paths in the rock. These processes include biological pathways with degradation of organic material of ground surface origin, and biotically mediated reactions with reduced rock minerals and with various materials expected to be present in the backfilled repository volume. In the absence of microbes most of these reactions may also follow abiotic pathways. Present day observations show that degradation of organic material is the most powerful oxygen scavenging process. At Forsmark, oxygen is generally depleted within a few metres under present day temperate conditions. Although biological activity is likely to exist also during different phases of a glaciation, large uncertainties exist regarding e.g. the population growth dynamics, the biotic reaction rates and the availability of organic material under the highly varying conditions expected. Microbial activity and degradation of organic material is therefore pessimistically neglected in the calculations in this report. In the absence of organic material, ferrous iron present in minerals in the rock

  12. [Synergistic emission reduction of chief air pollutants and greenhouse gases-based on scenario simulations of energy consumptions in Beijing].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xie, Yuan-bo; Li, Wei

    2013-05-01

    It is one of the common targets and important tasks for energy management and environmental control of Beijing to improve urban air quality while reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Here, based on the interim and long term developmental planning and energy structure of the city, three energy consumption scenarios in low, moderate and high restrictions were designed by taking the potential energy saving policies and environmental targets into account. The long-range energy alternatives planning (LEAP) model was employed to predict and evaluate reduction effects of the chief air pollutants and GHG during 2010 to 2020 under the three given scenarios. The results showed that if urban energy consumption system was optimized or adjusted by exercising energy saving and emission reduction and pollution control measures, the predicted energy uses will be reduced by 10 to 30 million tons of coal equivalents by 2020. Under the two energy scenarios with moderate and high restrictions, the anticipated emissions of SO2, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, VOC and GHG will be respectively reduced to 71 to 100.2, 159.2 to 218.7, 89.8 to 133.8, 51.4 to 96.0, 56.4 to 74.8 and 148 200 to 164 700 thousand tons. Correspondingly, when compared with the low-restriction scenario, the reducing rate will be 53% to 67% , 50% to 64% , 33% to 55% , 25% to 60% , 41% to 55% and 26% to 34% respectively. Furthermore, based on a study of synergistic emission reduction of the air pollutants and GHG, it was proposed that the adjustment and control of energy consumptions shall be intensively developed in the three sectors of industry, transportation and services. In this way the synergistic reduction of the emissions of chief air pollutants and GHG will be achieved; meanwhile the pressures of energy demands may be deliberately relieved.

  13. Pressurizing Behavior on Ingress of Coolant into Pebble Bed of Blanket of Fusion DEMO Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Daigo Tsuru; Mikio Enoeda; Masato Akiba

    2006-01-01

    Solid breeder blankets are being developed as candidate blankets for the Fusion DEMO reactor in Japan. JAEA is performing the development of the water cooled and helium cooled solid breeder blankets. The blanket utilizes ceramic breeder pebbles and multiplier pebbles beds cooled by high pressure water or high pressure helium in the cooling tubes placed in the blanket box structure. In the development of the blanket, it is very important to incorporate the safety technology as well as the performance improvement on tritium production and energy conversion. In the safety design and technology, coolant ingress in the blanket box structure is one of the most important events as the initiators. Especially the thermal hydraulics in the pebble bed in the case of the high pressure coolant ingress is very important to evaluate the pressure propagation and coolant flow behavior. This paper presents the preliminary results of the pressure loss characteristics by the coolant ingress in the pebble bed. Experiments have been performed by using alumina pebble bed (4 litter maximum volume of the pebble bed) and nitrogen gas to simulate the helium coolant ingress into breeder and multiplier pebble beds. Reservoir tank of 10 liter is filled with 1.0 MPa nitrogen. The nitrogen gas is released at the bottom part of the alumina pebble bed whose upper part is open to the atmosphere. The pressure change in the pebble bed is measured to identify the pressure loss. The measured values are compared with the predicted values by Ergun's equation, which is the correlation equation on pressure loss of the flow through porous medium. By the results of the experiments with no constraint on the alumina pebble bed, it was clarified that the measured value agreed in the lower flow rate. However, in the higher flow rate where the pressure loss is high, the measured value is about half of the predicted value. The differences between the measured values and the predicted values will be discussed from

  14. Short-term impacts of air pollutants in Switzerland: Preliminary scenario calculations for selected Swiss energy systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S; Keller, J [Paul Scherrer Inst. (PSI), Villigen (Switzerland)

    1999-08-01

    In the frame of the comprehensive assessment of Swiss energy systems, air quality simulations were performed by using a 3-dimensional photo-chemical dispersion model. The objective is to investigate the impacts of pollutants in Switzerland for future options of Swiss energy systems. Four scenarios were investigated: Base Case: simulations with the projected emissions for the year 2030, Scenario 1) all nuclear power plants were replaced by oil-driven combined cycle plants (CCP), Scenarios 2 to 4) traffic emissions were reduced in whole Switzerland as well as in the cities and on the highways separately. Changes in the pollutant concentrations and depositions, and the possible short-term impacts are discussed on the basis of exceedences of critical levels for plants and limits given to protect the public health. (author) 2 figs., 7 refs.

  15. The impact of China's vehicle emissions on regional air quality in 2000 and 2020: a scenario analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Saikawa

    2011-09-01

    Full Text Available The number of vehicles in China has been increasing rapidly. We evaluate the impact of current and possible future vehicle emissions from China on Asian air quality. We modify the Regional Emission Inventory in Asia (REAS for China's road transport sector in 2000 using updated Chinese data for the number of vehicles, annual mileage, and emission factors. We develop two scenarios for 2020: a scenario where emission factors remain the same as they were in 2000 (No-Policy, NoPol, and a scenario where Euro 3 vehicle emission standards are applied to all vehicles (except motorcycles and rural vehicles. The Euro 3 scenario is an approximation of what may be the case in 2020 as, starting in 2008, all new vehicles in China (except motorcycles were required to meet the Euro 3 emission standards. Using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF/Chem, we examine the regional air quality response to China's vehicle emissions in 2000 and in 2020 for the NoPol and Euro 3 scenarios. We evaluate the 2000 model results with observations in Japan, China, Korea, and Russia. Under NoPol in 2020, emissions of carbon monoxide (CO, nitrogen oxides (NOx, non-methane volatile organic compounds (NMVOCs, black carbon (BC, and organic carbon (OC from China's vehicles more than double compared to the 2000 baseline. If all vehicles meet the Euro 3 regulations in 2020, however, these emissions are reduced by more than 50% relative to NoPol. The implementation of stringent vehicle emission standards leads to a large, simultaneous reduction of the surface ozone (O3 mixing ratios and particulate matter (PM2.5 concentrations. In the Euro 3 scenario, surface O3 is reduced by more than 10 ppbv and surface PM2.5 is reduced by more than 10 μg m−3 relative to NoPol in Northeast China in all seasons. In spring, surface O3 mixing ratios and PM2.5 concentrations in

  16. Oxygen Selective Membranes for Li-Air (O2 Batteries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mark Salomon

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Lithium-air (Li-air batteries have a much higher theoretical energy density than conventional lithium batteries and other metal air batteries, so they are being developed for applications that require long life. Water vapor from air must be prevented from corroding the lithium (Li metal negative electrode during discharge under ambient conditions, i.e., in humid air. One method of protecting the Li metal from corrosion is to use an oxygen selective membrane (OSM that allows oxygen into the cell while stopping or slowing the ingress of water vapor. The desired properties and some potential materials for OSMs for Li-air batteries are discussed and the literature is reviewed.

  17. Magnitude and reactivity consequences of moisture ingress into the modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, O.L.

    1992-12-01

    Inadvertent admission of moisture into the primary system of a modular high-temperature gas-cooled reactor has been identified in US Department of Energy-sponsored studies as an important safety concern. The work described here develops an analytical methodology to quantify the pressure and reactivity consequences of steam-generator tube rupture and other moisture-ingress-related incidents. Important neutronic and thermohydraulic processes are coupled with reactivity feedback and safety and control system responses. The rate and magnitude of steam buildup are found to be dominated by major system features such as break size compared with safety valve capacity and reliability and less sensitive to factors such as heat transfer coefficients. The results indicate that ingress transients progress at a slower pace than previously predicted by bounding analyses, with milder power overshoots and more time for operator or automatic corrective actions

  18. Investigations on accidents with massive water ingress exemplified by the pebble bed reactor PNP-500

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moormann, R.

    1986-01-01

    A computer code is used for analyses of massive water ingress accidents in the High-Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor concept PNP-500 with pebble bed core. The analyses are mainly focussed on graphite corrosion processes. For the investigated accidents a correct reactor shut down in assumed. The mass of water ingressing into the primary circuit is varied between 1000 and 7500 kg (i.e., up to hypothetical values). The dependence of accident consequences on parameters such as intensity and starting time of the afterheat removal system or kinetic values of the chemical processes is examined. The results show that even under pessimistic assumptions the extent of the graphite corrosion is relatively low; significant damaging of fuel elements or graphite components does not occur. A primary circuit depressurization, combined with local burning of water gas, would probably not affect the fission product retention potential of the (gastight) containment. Summing up, the risk caused by these accidents remains small. (orig.) [de

  19. Non-destructive evaluation of water ingress in photovoltaic modules

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bora, Mihail; Kotovsky, Jack

    2017-03-07

    Systems and techniques for non-destructive evaluation of water ingress in photovoltaic modules include and/or are configured to illuminate a photovoltaic module comprising a photovoltaic cell and an encapsulant with at least one beam of light having a wavelength in a range from about 1400 nm to about 2700 nm; capture one or more images of the illuminated photovoltaic module, each image relating to a water content of the photovoltaic module; and determine a water content of the photovoltaic module based on the one or more images. Systems preferably include one or more of a light source, a moving mirror, a focusing lens, a beam splitter, a stationary mirror, an objective lens and an imaging module.

  20. Some observations on the problem of jelly fish ingress in a power station cooling system at Kalpakkam, east coast of India

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rajagopal, S.; Azariah, Jayapaul; Nair, K.V.K.

    1989-01-01

    The paper reports results of a study on the seasonal distribution and abundance of jelly fishes in the coastal waters of Kalpakkam in the context of their ingress into the cooling system of a power plant. Three species of jelly fishes Dactylometra quinquicirrha (L. agassiz), Crambionella stuhlmanni (Chun) and Chiropsalmus buitendijki (Horst) were found in such abundance as to cause blockage of the cooling water intake screens. The seasonal variation in the incidence of the jelly fishes clearly showed that the periods of maxima and minima were different for each species. During the period of study (February 1988 to April 1989) three maxima were noted - May, July and October. On any given single day, maximum quantity of jelly fishes collected from the travelling screens was 29 tonnes (21 July 1988). The data are discussed with respect of (i)qualitative and quantitative variations in the ingress of jelly fishes at Kalpakkam, (ii)operational problems associated with jelly fish ingress and (iii)possible approaches to combat the problem. (author). 1 tab., 4 figs., 9 ref s

  1. Changes in future air quality, deposition, and aerosol-cloud interactions under future climate and emission scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Glotfelty, Timothy; Zhang, Yang; Karamchandani, Prakash; Streets, David G.

    2016-08-01

    The prospect of global climate change will have wide scale impacts, such as ecological stress and human health hazards. One aspect of concern is future changes in air quality that will result from changes in both meteorological forcing and air pollutant emissions. In this study, the GU-WRF/Chem model is employed to simulate the impact of changing climate and emissions following the IPCC AR4 SRES A1B scenario. An average of 4 future years (2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050) is compared against an average of 2 current years (2001 and 2010). Under this scenario, by the Mid-21st century global air quality is projected to degrade with a global average increase of 2.5 ppb in the maximum 8-hr O3 level and of 0.3 mg m3 in 24-hr average PM2.5. However, PM2.5 changes are more regional due to regional variations in primary aerosol emissions and emissions of gaseous precursor for secondary PM2.5. Increasing NOx emissions in this scenario combines with a wetter climate elevating levels of OH, HO2, H2O2, and the nitrate radical and increasing the atmosphere’s near surface oxidation state. This differs from findings under the RCP scenarios that experience declines in OH from reduced NOx emissions, stratospheric recovery of O3, and increases in CH4 and VOCs. Increasing NOx and O3 levels enhances the nitrogen and O3 deposition, indicating potentially enhanced crop damage and ecosystem stress under this scenario. The enhanced global aerosol level results in enhancements in aerosol optical depth, cloud droplet number concentration, and cloud optical thickness. This leads to dimming at the Earth’s surface with a global average reduction in shortwave radiation of 1.2 W m2 . This enhanced dimming leads to a more moderate warming trend and different trends in radiation than those found in NCAR’s CCSM simulation, which does not include the advanced chemistry and aerosol

  2. Investigation of the quality of stored red blood cells after simulated air drop in the maritime environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meli, Athinoula; Hancock, Vicky; Doughty, Heidi; Smedley, Steve; Cardigan, Rebecca; Wiltshire, Michael

    2018-02-01

    Maritime medical capability may be compromised by blood resupply. Air-dropped red blood cells (RBCs) is a possible mitigation factor. This study set out to evaluate RBC storage variables after a simulated parachute air drop into the sea, as limited data exist. The air load construction for the air drop of blood was subject to static drop assessment to simulate a worst-case parachute drop scenario. One control and two test Golden Hour shipping containers were each packaged with 10 RBC units. The control box was not dropped; Test Boxes 1 and 2 were further reinforced with waterproof boxes and underwent a simulated air drop on Day 7 or Day 8 postdonation, respectively. One day after the drop and once a week thereafter until Day 43 of storage, RBCs from each box were sampled and tested for full blood counts, hemolysis, adenosine triphosphate, 2,3-diphosphoglycerate, pH, extracellular potassium, glucose, lactate, deformability, and RBC microvesicles. The packaging configuration completed the air drop with no water ingress or physical damage. All units met UK specifications for volume, hemoglobin, and hemolysis. There were no significant differences for any of the variables studied between RBCs in the control box compared to RBCs in Test Boxes 1 and 2 combined over storage. The test proved that the packaging solution and the impact of a maritime air drop as performed in this study, on Day 7 or Day 8 postdonation, did not affect the in vitro quality of RBCs in SAGM over storage for 35 days. © 2017 AABB.

  3. Assessing concentrations and health impacts of air quality management strategies: Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation (FRESH-EST).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milando, Chad W; Martenies, Sheena E; Batterman, Stuart A

    2016-09-01

    In air quality management, reducing emissions from pollutant sources often forms the primary response to attaining air quality standards and guidelines. Despite the broad success of air quality management in the US, challenges remain. As examples: allocating emissions reductions among multiple sources is complex and can require many rounds of negotiation; health impacts associated with emissions, the ultimate driver for the standards, are not explicitly assessed; and long dispersion model run-times, which result from the increasing size and complexity of model inputs, limit the number of scenarios that can be evaluated, thus increasing the likelihood of missing an optimal strategy. A new modeling framework, called the "Framework for Rapid Emissions Scenario and Health impact ESTimation" (FRESH-EST), is presented to respond to these challenges. FRESH-EST estimates concentrations and health impacts of alternative emissions scenarios at the urban scale, providing efficient computations from emissions to health impacts at the Census block or other desired spatial scale. In addition, FRESH-EST can optimize emission reductions to meet specified environmental and health constraints, and a convenient user interface and graphical displays are provided to facilitate scenario evaluation. The new framework is demonstrated in an SO2 non-attainment area in southeast Michigan with two optimization strategies: the first minimizes emission reductions needed to achieve a target concentration; the second minimizes concentrations while holding constant the cumulative emissions across local sources (e.g., an emissions floor). The optimized strategies match outcomes in the proposed SO2 State Implementation Plan without the proposed stack parameter modifications or shutdowns. In addition, the lower health impacts estimated for these strategies suggest that FRESH-EST could be used to identify potentially more desirable pollution control alternatives in air quality management planning

  4. Severe water ingress accident analysis for a Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zuoyi; Scherer, Winfried

    1997-01-01

    This paper analyzes the severe water ingress accidents in the SIEMENS 200MW Modular High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTR-Module) under the assumption of no active safety protection systems in order to find the safety margin of the current HTR-Module design. A water, steam and helium multi-phase cavity model is originally developed and implemented in the DSNP simulation system. The developed DSNP system is used to simulate the primary circuit of HTR-Module power plant. The comparisons of the models with the TINTE calculations validate the current simulation. After analyzing the effects of blower separation on water droplets, the wall heat storage, etc., it is found that the maximum H 2 O density increase rate in the reactor core is smaller than 0.3 kg/(m 3 s). The liquid water vaporization in the steam generator and H 2 O transport from the steam generator to the reactor core reduces the impulse of the H 2 O in the reactor core. The nuclear reactivity increase caused by the water ingress leads to a fast power excursion, which, however, is inherently counterbalanced by negative feedback effects. Concerning the integrity of the fuel elements, the safety relevant temperature limit of 1600degC was not reached in any case. (author)

  5. Oxidation and Volatilization from Tantalum Alloy T-222 During Air Exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smolik, Galen Richard; Petti, David Andrew; Sharpe, John Phillip; Schuetz, Stanley Thomas

    2000-10-01

    Tantalum alloys are one of the refractory metals with renewed consideration for high temperatures in fusion reactor applications. Tantalum alloys perform well in protective environments but oxidized readily in gases containing higher oxygen levels. In addition, the radioactive isotope Ta-182 would be produced in tantalum and could be a significant contributor to dose if mobilized. Other isotopes of importance are produced from tungsten and hafnium. Mobilization of activated products during an accident with air ingress is therefore a safety issue. In this study, we measured the extent of oxidation and mobilization from tantalum alloy T-222 oxidized in flowing air between 500 and 1200°C. This alloy nominally contains 10 wt% tungsten, 2.5 wt% hafnium and 0.01 wt% carbon. We found that the mobilization of Ta and Hf was closely linked to the occurrence of oxide spalling. These elements showed no migration from the test chamber. Some W was mobilized by volatilization as evidenced by transport from the chamber. Tungsten volatilization could occur primarily during initial stages of oxidation before an oxide scale forms and impedes the process. The mobilization of Ta and W are presented in terms of the mass flux (g/m 2 -h) as a function of test temperature. These measurements along with specific designs, activation calculations, and accident scenarios provide information useful for dose calculations of future fusion devices

  6. Oxidation and Volatilization from Tantalum Alloy T-222 During Air Exposure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smolik, G.R.; Petti, D.A.; Sharpe, J.P.; Schuetz, S.T.

    2000-10-31

    Tantalum alloys are one of the refractory metals with renewed consideration for high temperatures in fusion reactor applications. Tantalum alloys perform well in protective environments but oxidized readily in gases containing higher oxygen levels. In addition, the radioactive isotope Ta-182 would be produced in tantalum and could be a significant contributor to dose if mobilized. Other isotopes of importance are produced from tungsten and hafnium. Mobilization of activated products during an accident with air ingress is therefore a safety issue. In this study, we measured the extent of oxidation and mobilization from tantalum alloy T-222 oxidized in flowing air between 500 and 1200 C. This alloy nominally contains 10 wt% tungsten, 2.5 wt% hafnium and 0.01 wt% carbon. We found that the mobilization of Ta and Hf was closely linked to the occurrence of oxide spalling. These elements showed no migration from the test chamber. Some W was mobilized by volatilization as evidenced by transport from the chamber. Tungsten volatilization could occur primarily during initial stages of oxidation before an oxide scale forms and impedes the process. The mobilization of Ta and W are presented in terms of the mass flux (g/m 2 -h) as a function of test temperature. These measurements along with specific designs, activation calculations, and accident scenarios provide information useful for dose calculations of future fusion devices.

  7. Air emissions scenarios from ethanol as a gasoline oxygenate in Mexico City Metropolitan Area

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garcia, Carlos A. [Posgrado en Ingenieria Energetica, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico); Manzini, Fabio; Islas, Jorge [Centro de Investigacion en Energia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Priv. Xochicalco s/n, Col. Centro, Apartado Postal 34, 62580 Temixco, Morelos (Mexico)

    2010-12-15

    The Mexican Biofuel Introduction Program states that during year 2010 the three biggest Mexican cities will have a gasoline blending with 6% ethanol available for all gasoline on-road vehicle fleet. Also in 2010 Mexican government has programmed to start the substitution of Tier 1 - the adopted US emission standards - by Tier 2, which are more stringent emission standards for motor vehicles and gasoline sulfur control requirements. How will the air emissions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) be modified by using this blending? Four scenarios up to year 2030 were constructed and simulated using the Long-Range Energy Alternatives Planning model. Beginning with a BAU or reference scenario, in this scenario the current available fuel is a blending composed by 5% methyl tertiary butyl ether and 95% gasoline (MTBE5). Then, three alternative scenarios that use ethanol as an oxygenate are considered, one with the already programmed E6 blending (6% anhydride ethanol, 94% gasoline), for the sake of comparison the E10 blending (10% anhydride ethanol, 90% gasoline), and the other alternative to compare, ETBE13.7 (13.7% ethyl tertiary butyl ether, 86.3% gasoline; where ETBE is an ether composed by 48% anhydride ethanol and 52% isobutene). Emissions of carbon dioxide (CO{sub 2}), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides (NOx), particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO{sub 2}), total hydrocarbons (THC), benzene, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and 1,3-butadiene were calculated using emission factors previously calculated using the adapted US-EPA computer model called MOBILE6-Mexico. Results show that Tier 1 and Tier 2 standards effectively lowers all emissions in all studied scenarios with the exception of PM10 and CO{sub 2} emissions. The alternative scenario E10 has the most total avoided emissions by weight but it is not the best when considering some individual pollutants. The greatest environmental benefit of ethanol in its final use as a gasoline oxygenate is for

  8. Moisture ingress into electronics enclosures under isothermal conditions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Staliulionis, Ž.; Jabbari, M.; Hattel, J. H.

    2016-01-01

    The number of electronics used in outdoor environment is constantly growing. The humidity causes about 19 % of all electronics failures and, especially, moisture increases these problems due to the ongoing process of miniaturization and lower power consumption of electronic components. Moisture loads are still not understood well by design engineers, therefore this field has become one of the bottlenecks in the electronics system design. The objective of this paper is to model moisture ingress into an electronics enclosure under isothermal conditions. The moisture diffusion model is based on a 1D quasi-steady state (QSS) approximation for Fick’s second law. This QSS approach is also described with an electrical analogy which gives a fast tool in modelling of the moisture response. The same QSS method is applied to ambient water vapour variations. The obtained results are compared to an analytical solution and very good agreement is found.

  9. Modeled effects of an improved building insulation scenario in Europe on air pollution, health and societal costs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bønløkke, Jakob Hjort; Holst, Gitte Juel; Sigsgaard, Torben

    2015-01-01

    scenario in Europe would have substantial benefits on health through improvements in air pollution. Health effects and societal cost savings may significantly counterbalance investment costs and should be taken into account when evaluating strategies for mitigation of global warming....... with extensions. Mean annual changes in the main air pollutants were derived for each country. World Health Organization (WHO) and European Union (EU) data on populations and on impacts of pollutants were used to derive health effects and costs. Effects on indoor air quality were not assessed. Results: Projected...... 78678 LY in Europe. A total of 7173 cases of persistent chronic bronchitis could be avoided annually. Several other health outcomes improved similarly. The saved societal costs totaled 6.64 billion € annually. Conclusions: In addition to carbon emission reductions, an improved building insulation...

  10. Numerical simulation of severe water ingress accidents in a modular high temperature gas cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Zuoyi; Scherer, W.

    1996-01-01

    This report analyzes reverse water ingress accidents in the SIEMENS 200 MW Modular Pebble-Bed High Temperature Gas Cooled Reactor (HTR-MODULE) under the assumption of no active safety protection systems in order to find the safety margins of the current HTR-MODULE design and to realize a catastrophe-free nuclear technology. A water, steam and helium multi-phase cavity model is developed and implemented in the DSNP simulation system. The DSNP system is then used to simulate the primary and secondary circuit of a HTR-MODULE power plant. Comparisons of the model with experiments and with TINTE calculations serve as validation of the simulation. The analysis of the primary circuit tries to answer the question how fast the water enters the reactor core. It was found that the maximum H 2 O concentration increase in the reactor core is smaller than 0.3 kg/(m 3 s). The liquid water vaporization in the steam generator and H 2 O transport from the steam generator to the reactor core reduce the ingress velocity of the H 2 O into the reactor core. In order to answer the question how much water enters the primary circuit, the full cavitation of the feed water pumps is analyzed. It is found that if the secondary circuit is depressurized enough, the feed water pumps will be inherently stopped by the full cavitation. This limits the water to be pumped from the deaerator to the steam generator. A comprehensive simulation of the MODUL-HTR power plant then shows that the H 2 O inventory in the primary circuit can be limited to about 3000 kg. The nuclear reactivity increase caused by the water ingress leads to a fast power excursion, which, however, is inherently counterbalanced by negative feedback effects. Concerning the integrity of the fuel elements, the safety relevant temperature limit of 1600 C was not reached in any case. (orig.) [de

  11. Chloride Ingress in Concrete with Different Age at Time of First Chloride Exposure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Esben Østergaard; Iskau, Martin Riis; Hasholt, Marianne Tange

    2016-01-01

    Concrete structures cast in spring have longer time to hydrate and are therefore denser and more resistant to chloride ingress when first subjected to deicing salts in winter than structures cast in autumn. Consequently, it is expected that a spring casting will have a longer service life....... This hypothesis is investigated in the present study by testing drilled cores from concrete cast in 2012 and 2013 on the Svendborgsund Bridge. The cores are subject to petrographic examination and mapping of chloride profiles. Moreover, chloride migration coefficients have been measured. The study shows...

  12. Biophysical processes leading to the ingress of temperate fish larvae into estuarine nursery areas: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teodósio, Maria Alexandra; Paris, Claire B.; Wolanski, Eric; Morais, Pedro

    2016-12-01

    A series of complementary hypotheses have been proposed to explain the recruitment of marine and temperate pelagic fish larvae originated from pelagic eggs in coastal environments. In this review, we propose a new and complementary hypothesis describing the biophysical processes intervening in the recruitment of temperate fish larvae into estuaries. This new hypothesis, the Sense Acuity And Behavioral (SAAB) hypothesis, recognizes that recruitment is unlikely if the larvae drift passively with the water currents, and that successful recruitment requires the sense acuity of temperate fish larvae and their behavioral response to the estuarine cues present in coastal areas. We propose that temperate fish larvae use a hierarchy of sensory cues (odor, sound, visual and geomagnetic cues) to detect estuarine nursery areas and to aid during navigation towards these areas. The sensorial acuity increases along ontogeny, which coincides with increased swimming capabilities. The swimming strategies of post-flexion larvae differ from offshore areas to the tidal zone. In offshore areas, innate behavior might lead larvae towards the coast guided by a sun compass or by the earth's geomagnetic field. In areas under limited influence of estuarine plumes (either in energetic nearshore areas or offshore), post-flexion larvae display a searching swimming behavior for estuarine disconnected patches (infotaxis strategy). After finding an estuarine plume, larvae may swim along the increasing cue concentration to ingress into the estuary. Here, larvae exhibit a rheotaxis behavior and avoid displacement by longshore currents by keeping bearing during navigation. When larvae reach the vicinity of an estuary, merging diel rhythms with feeding and predator avoidance strategies with tidally induced movements is essential to increase their chances of estuarine ingress. A fish larva recruitment model developed for the Ria Formosa lagoon supports the general framework of the SAAB hypothesis. In

  13. 36 CFR 14.5 - Nature of interest granted; settlement on right-of-way; rights of ingress and egress.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 36 Parks, Forests, and Public Property 1 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false Nature of interest granted; settlement on right-of-way; rights of ingress and egress. 14.5 Section 14.5 Parks, Forests, and Public Property NATIONAL PARK SERVICE, DEPARTMENT OF THE INTERIOR RIGHTS-OF-WAY Nature of Interest § 14.5 Nature...

  14. Mitigation of corrosion product ingress into SG's

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Han, S.H.

    1988-01-01

    Design and operation experiences to mitigate corrosion product ingress into SGs in Korea nuclear power plants are briefly reviewed. Maintaining the feedwater pH above 9.6 with morpholine seems to contribute significantly to reduction of iron transport to SGs. Measured iron transport rates were 4.8 g/hr/100 MWe at pH 9.8 and 2.8 g/hr/100 MWe at 9.3, respectively. Removal of corrosion products through SG blowdown is very limited. Its removal efficiency at the higher pH plant was in the neighborhood of 10 %. In one of the Korea Nuclear Units, a large amount of sludge piles were found in the middle of tube bundles especially on the cold leg side. Damaged tubes were identified by the multi-frequency eddy current tests and plugged later during the refueling period. Intermittent blowdown-rate increase was tried to enhance ionic impurity removal through SG blowdown. Even though it was not effective against Na, removal other impurity was improved, resulting in prolonged condensate polisher operation periods by 1 - 2 days. Two-bed polisher design, a cation bed followed by a mixed bed, was chosen for future PWR plants to enhance corrosion product filtering capability of the polishers. Condensate pump discharge polishing and divided hot well polishing methods are currently in consideration. (Nogami, K.)

  15. Numerical analysis on ingress-of-coolant events in fusion reactors with TRAC-PF1 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ose, Yasuo; Takase, Kazuyuki; Akimoto, Hajime

    2000-01-01

    As for accident events related with thermal-hydraulics, in a fusion experimental reactor an ingress-of-coolant event (ICE) and a loss-of-vacuum-accident event (LOVA) should be considered. An integrated ICE/LOVA test apparatus is under planning in order to estimate quantitatively heat transfer and fluid flow characteristics under ICE and LOVA events. This study was carried out to predict numerically the thermal-hydraulic characteristics in fusion reactors at the ICE events before construction of the integrated ICE/LOVA test apparatus. The TRAC-PF1 code, which was originally developed for the thermal-hydraulic safety analysis in light water reactors, was used. The numerical analyses were performed for two kinds of system configuration with/without a pressure-suppression tank:the former for is investigation of the pressure rise characteristics and two-phase flow behavior; the latter for estimation of an effect of the pressure reduction due to the pressure-suppression tank. From the present analytical results, effects of the ingress water flow rate and vessel temperatures on the pressure rise ware clarified quantitatively. Furthermore, the pressure-rise suppression effect due to the vapor condensation in the pressure-suppression tank was predicted numerically. In addition, the useful information regarding to the design of the integrated ICE/LOVA test apparatus and the knowledge with respect to the effective usage of the TRAC-PF1 code were obtained through the present numerical study. (author)

  16. Suppressing hydrogen ingress during aqueous corrosion of CANDU Zr-2.5 Nb pressure tube material

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Elmoselhi, M.B.; Donner, A.; Brennenstuhl, A.; Warr, B.D.; Ellis, P.J.; Evans, D.W.

    2002-01-01

    As a result of their special properties, including low neutron cross-section and intrinsic corrosion resistance, Zr alloys are used in the fabrication of nuclear core components, particularly fuel cladding (in most reactor types) and also Zr-2.5 Nb pressure tubes in CANDU trademark (Canada Deuterium Uranium) reactors. Corrosion and H uptake during service can limit the life of these components. Therefore, remedial action may be appropriate to slow the H uptake rate and prolong the working life of these reactor components. This work has explored the possibility of reducing H uptake in pressure tube material by incorporating an inhibiting agent into the corrosion environment. Two approaches have been tested, depositing a thin metallic film on the initial oxide surface and adding an inhibiting agent to the solution. The latter approach appears more practical. Screening experiments were conducted in short-term (∝30 day) exposures in high temperature (340 C) aqueous out-reactor environments, simulating the CANDU trademark heat transport coolant with various chemistries. Compounds tested included aluminum acetate, aluminum nitrate, lithium nitrate, rhodium nitrate and yttrium nitrate. Comparison of results from the aluminum nitrate additives and aluminum acetate additives suggests that the nitrate anion is the effective ingredient for H ingress inhibition. The nitrate anion appears to reduce the rate of H ingress regardless of the associated cation. However, each cation appears to affect the rate of corrosion differently. These cations were found to be incorporated in the oxide film. (authors)

  17. Application of transient ignition model to multi-canister (MCO) accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kummerer, M.

    1996-01-01

    The potential for ignition of spent nuclear fuel in a Multi-Canister Overpack (MCO) is examined. A transient model is applied to calculate the highest ambient gas temperature outside an MCO wall tube or shipping cask for which a stable temperature condition exists. This integral analysis couples reaction kinetics with a description of the MCO configuration, heat and mass transfer, and fission product phenomena. It thereby allows ignition theory to be applied to various complex scenarios, including MCO water loss accidents and dry MCO air ingression

  18. Use of a multi-species reactive transport model to simulate chloride ingress in mortar exposed to NaCl solution or sea-water

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Mads Mønster; De Weerdt, K.; Johannesson, Björn

    2015-01-01

    Simulations of ion ingress in Portland cement mortar using a multi-species reactive mass transport model are compared with experimental test results. The model is an extended version of the Poisson–Nernst–Planck equations, accounting for chemical equilibrium. Saturated mortar samples were exposed...

  19. The Transit Ingress and the Tilted Orbit of the Extraordinarily Eccentric Exoplanet HD 80606b

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winn, Joshua N.; Howard, Andrew W.; Johnson, John A.; Marcy, Geoffrey W.; Gazak, J. Zachary; Starkey, Donn; Ford, Eric B.; Colon, Knicole D.; Reyes, Francisco; Nortmann, Lisa; hide

    2009-01-01

    We reported the first detection of the transit ingress, revealing the transit duration to be 11.64 plus or minus 0.25 hr and allowing more robust determinations of the system parameters. Keck spectra obtained at midtransit exhibited an anomalous blueshift, giving definitive evidence that the stellar spin axis and planetary orbital axis are misaligned. Thus, the orbit of this planet is not only highly eccentric but is also tilted away from the equatorial plane of its parent star. A large tilt had been predicted, based on the idea that the planet's eccentric orbit was caused by the Kozai mechanism.

  20. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaerkelae, T.; Backman, Ul; Auvinen, A.; Zilliacus, R.; Lipponen, M.; Kekki, T.; Tapper, U.; Jokiniemi, J.

    2007-03-01

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In a severe accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium may oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species, it is of interest to know, how they are formed and how they behave. In our experiments the formation and transport of volatile ruthenium oxides was studied by exposing RuO2 powder to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. Transport of gaseous RuO4 was further investigated by injecting it into the facility in similar conditions. Upon cooling of the gas flow RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed from the gas stream with plane filters. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close the mass balance and to achieve better time resolution seven experiment were carried out using radioactive tracer. In this report, the facility for the ruthenium behaviour study and results from experiments are presented. Preliminary conclusions from the experiments are reported as well. Final conclusions will be made after modelling of the facility is completed in a continuation work of this study. (au)

  1. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaerkelae, T.; Backman, Ul; Auvinen, A.; Zilliacus, R.; Lipponen, M.; Kekki, T.; Tapper, U.; Jokiniemi, J. [Technical Research Centre of Finland VTT (Finland)

    2007-03-15

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In a severe accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium may oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species, it is of interest to know, how they are formed and how they behave. In our experiments the formation and transport of volatile ruthenium oxides was studied by exposing RuO2 powder to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. Transport of gaseous RuO4 was further investigated by injecting it into the facility in similar conditions. Upon cooling of the gas flow RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed from the gas stream with plane filters. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close the mass balance and to achieve better time resolution seven experiment were carried out using radioactive tracer. In this report, the facility for the ruthenium behaviour study and results from experiments are presented. Preliminary conclusions from the experiments are reported as well. Final conclusions will be made after modelling of the facility is completed in a continuation work of this study. (au)

  2. Air Quality and Climate Change

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Colette, A.; Rouil, L.; Bessagnet, B.; Schucht, S.; Szopa, S.; Vautard, R.; Menut, L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change and air quality are closely related: through the policy measures implemented to mitigate these major environmental threats but also through the geophysical processes that drive them. We designed, developed and implemented a comprehensive regional air quality and climate modeling System to investigate future air quality in Europe taking into account the combined pressure of future climate change and long range transport. Using the prospective scenarios of the last generation of pathways for both climate change (emissions of well mixed greenhouse gases) and air pollutants, we can provide a quantitative view into the possible future air quality in Europe. We find that ozone pollution will decrease substantially under the most stringent scenario but the efforts of the air quality legislation will be adversely compensated by the penalty of global warming and long range transport for the business as usual scenario. For particulate matter, the projected reduction of emissions efficiently reduces exposure levels. (authors)

  3. Durable concrete for a waste repository - Measurement of ionic ingress

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feldman, R.F.; Beaudoin, J.J.; Philipose, K.E.

    1990-01-01

    A waste repository for the below ground disposal of low level radioactive waste is planned at Chalk River Nuclear Laboratories. It relies greatly on the durability of concrete for the required 500 year service life. A research program to design durable concrete and predict its service life is in progress. The degradation of the concrete depends to a large extent on the rate of ingress of corrosive agents. Penetration of chloride and sulfate ions are particularly relevant. Twenty mix formulations were developed to create various types and qualities of concrete, and to study their behavior in different site environmental conditions. A total of 1,000 concrete specimens are being exposed at 20C and 45C to 25 different combinations of the corrosive agents including CO 2 . Procedures to measure the ionic profiles and to determine the factors controlling diffusion of the ions in the various concretes have been developed. Results of selected concrete systems exposed to chloride and sulfate solutions for 1 year are presented and discussed in terms of pore structure and permeability parameters of the concrete

  4. Climate, air quality and human health benefits of various solar photovoltaic deployment scenarios in China in 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Junnan; Li, Xiaoyuan; Peng, Wei; Wagner, Fabian; Mauzerall, Denise L.

    2018-06-01

    Solar photovoltaic (PV) electricity generation can greatly reduce both air pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions compared to fossil fuel electricity generation. The Chinese government plans to greatly scale up solar PV installation between now and 2030. However, different PV development pathways will influence the range of air quality and climate benefits. Benefits depend on how much electricity generated from PV is integrated into power grids and the type of power plant displaced. Using a coal-intensive power sector projection as the base case, we estimate the climate, air quality, and related human health benefits of various 2030 PV deployment scenarios. We use the 2030 government goal of 400 GW installed capacity but vary the location of PV installation and the extent of inter-provincial PV electricity transmission. We find that deploying distributed PV in the east with inter-provincial transmission maximizes potential CO2 reductions and air quality-related health benefits (4.2% and 1.2% decrease in national total CO2 emissions and air pollution-related premature deaths compared to the base case, respectively). Deployment in the east with inter-provincial transmission results in the largest benefits because it maximizes displacement of the dirtiest coal-fired power plants and minimizes PV curtailment, which is more likely to occur without inter-provincial transmission. We further find that the maximum co-benefits achieved with deploying PV in the east and enabling inter-provincial transmission are robust under various maximum PV penetration levels in both provincial and regional grids. We find large potential benefits of policies that encourage distributed PV deployment and facilitate inter-provincial PV electricity transmission in China.

  5. Improvement design study on steam generator of MHR-50/100 aiming higher safety level after water ingress accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Oyama, S.; Minatsuki, I.; Shimizu, K.

    2012-01-01

    Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Ltd. (MHI) has been studying on MHI original High Temperature Gas cooled Reactor (HTGR), namely MHR-50/100, for commercialization with supported by JAEA. In the heat transfer system, steam generator (SG) is one of the most important components because it should be imposed a function of heat transfer from reactor power to steam turbine system and maintaining a nuclear grade boundary. Then we especially focused an effort of a design study on the SG having robustness against water ingress accident based on our design experience of PWR, FBR and HTGR. In this study, we carried out a sensitivity analysis from the view point of economic and plant efficiency. As a result, the SG design parameter of helium inlet/outlet temperature of 750 deg. C/300 deg. C, a side-by-side layout and one unit of SG attached to a reactor were selected. In the next, a design improvement of SG was carried out from the view point of securing the level of inherent safety without reliance on active steam dump system during water ingress accident considering the situation of the Fukushima nuclear power plant disaster on March 11, 2011. Finally, according to above basic design requirement to SG, we performed a conceptual design on adapting themes of SG structure improvement. (authors)

  6. Retrospective review of adverse incidents involving passengers seated in wheeled mobility devices while traveling in large accessible transit vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frost, Karen L; Bertocci, Gina

    2010-04-01

    Characterize wheeled mobility device (WhMD) adverse incidents on large accessible transit vehicles (LATVs) based on vehicle motion, WhMD activity during incident, incident scenario and injury. Retrospective records review. WhMD passengers traveling on LATVs while remaining seated in their. Adverse incidents characterized based on vehicle motion, WhMD activity during incident, and incident scenario. Injury characterized based on outcome, medical attention sought, vehicle activity, WhMD activity and incident scenario. 115 WhMD-related incident reports for years 2000-2005 were analyzed. Most incidents occurred when the LATV was stopped (73.9%), during ingress/egress (42.6%), and at the securement station (33.9%) when the LATV was moving. The combination of WhMD tipping and passenger falling (43.4%) occurred most frequently, and was 1.8 times more likely to occur during ingress/egress than at the securement station. One-third (33.6%) of all incidents resulted in injury, and injuries were equally distributed between ingress/egress (43.6%) and at the securement station (43.6%). WhMD users have a greater chance of incurring injury during ingress/egress than during transit. Research is needed to objectively assess real world transportation experiences of WhMD passengers, and to assess the adequacy of existing federal legislation/guidelines for accessible ramps used in public transportation. Copyright 2009 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Impacts of Changes of Indoor Air Pressure and Air Exchange Rate in Vapor Intrusion Scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Rui; Suuberg, Eric M

    2016-02-01

    There has, in recent years, been increasing interest in understanding the transport processes of relevance in vapor intrusion of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into buildings on contaminated sites. These studies have included fate and transport modeling. Most such models have simplified the prediction of indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations by employing a steady state assumption, which often results in difficulties in reconciling these results with field measurements. This paper focuses on two major factors that may be subject to significant transients in vapor intrusion situations, including the indoor air pressure and the air exchange rate in the subject building. A three-dimensional finite element model was employed with consideration of daily and seasonal variations in these factors. From the results, the variations of indoor air pressure and air exchange rate are seen to contribute to significant variations in indoor air contaminant vapor concentrations. Depending upon the assumptions regarding the variations in these parameters, the results are only sometimes consistent with the reports of several orders of magnitude in indoor air concentration variations from field studies. The results point to the need to examine more carefully the interplay of these factors in order to quantitatively understand the variations in potential indoor air exposures.

  8. Human health impacts for renewable energy scenarios from the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lefevre, Mireille; Gschwind, Benoit; Blanc, Isabelle; Ranchin, Thierry; Cofala, Janusz; Fuss, Sabine

    2013-01-01

    This article reports impact results from running the EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) related to human health for different scenarios in Europe. The scenarios were prepared within the EnerGEO project. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable energy, affect concentrations of air pollutants and as a consequence affect human health. PM 2.5 concentrations were estimated with the IIASA Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model on a time horizon up to the year 2050 for different scenarios. We analyse here the estimation of the Loss of Life Expectancy due to PM 2.5 concentrations for the Baseline scenario taken as a reference and the Maximum renewable power scenario. (orig.)

  9. Contaminant ingress into multizone buildings: An analytical state-space approach

    KAUST Repository

    Parker, Simon

    2013-08-13

    The ingress of exterior contaminants into buildings is often assessed by treating the building interior as a single well-mixed space. Multizone modelling provides an alternative way of representing buildings that can estimate concentration time series in different internal locations. A state-space approach is adopted to represent the concentration dynamics within multizone buildings. Analysis based on this approach is used to demonstrate that the exposure in every interior location is limited to the exterior exposure in the absence of removal mechanisms. Estimates are also developed for the short term maximum concentration and exposure in a multizone building in response to a step-change in concentration. These have considerable potential for practical use. The analytical development is demonstrated using a simple two-zone building with an inner zone and a range of existing multizone models of residential buildings. Quantitative measures are provided of the standard deviation of concentration and exposure within a range of residential multizone buildings. Ratios of the maximum short term concentrations and exposures to single zone building estimates are also provided for the same buildings. © 2013 Tsinghua University Press and Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  10. Ancillary health effects of climate mitigation scenarios as drivers of policy uptake: a review of air quality, transportation and diet co-benefits modeling studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Kelly M.; Hess, Jeremy J.; Balbus, John M.; Buonocore, Jonathan J.; Cleveland, David A.; Grabow, Maggie L.; Neff, Roni; Saari, Rebecca K.; Tessum, Christopher W.; Wilkinson, Paul; Woodward, Alistair; Ebi, Kristie L.

    2017-11-01

    Background: Significant mitigation efforts beyond the Nationally Determined Commitments (NDCs) coming out of the 2015 Paris Climate Agreement are required to avoid warming of 2 °C above pre-industrial temperatures. Health co-benefits represent selected near term, positive consequences of climate policies that can offset mitigation costs in the short term before the beneficial impacts of those policies on the magnitude of climate change are evident. The diversity of approaches to modeling mitigation options and their health effects inhibits meta-analyses and syntheses of results useful in policy-making. Methods/Design: We evaluated the range of methods and choices in modeling health co-benefits of climate mitigation to identify opportunities for increased consistency and collaboration that could better inform policy-making. We reviewed studies quantifying the health co-benefits of climate change mitigation related to air quality, transportation, and diet published since the 2009 Lancet Commission ‘Managing the health effects of climate change’ through January 2017. We documented approaches, methods, scenarios, health-related exposures, and health outcomes. Results/Synthesis: Forty-two studies met the inclusion criteria. Air quality, transportation, and diet scenarios ranged from specific policy proposals to hypothetical scenarios, and from global recommendations to stakeholder-informed local guidance. Geographic and temporal scope as well as validity of scenarios determined policy relevance. More recent studies tended to use more sophisticated methods to address complexity in the relevant policy system. Discussion: Most studies indicated significant, nearer term, local ancillary health benefits providing impetus for policy uptake and net cost savings. However, studies were more suited to describing the interaction of climate policy and health and the magnitude of potential outcomes than to providing specific accurate estimates of health co-benefits. Modeling

  11. Non-destructive vacuum decay method for pre-filled syringe closure integrity testing compared with dye ingress testing and high-voltage leak detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simonetti, Andrea; Amari, Filippo

    2015-01-01

    solution, preventing possible prefilled syringe plunger movement during container closure integrity testing execution, is presented as well. The growing need to meet sterile drug products' regulatory, quality, and safety expectations has progressively driven new developments and improvements both in container closure integrity testing methods and in the respective equipment, over the last years. Indeed, container closure integrity testing establishes the container closure system capability to provide required protection to the drug product and to demonstrate maintenance of product sterility over its shelf life. This article describes the development of four container closure integrity testing approaches for the evaluation of glass prefilled syringe closure integrity, including two destructive (pharmacopoeial and Novartis specific dye ingress test) and two non-destructive (vacuum decay and high-voltage leak detection) methods. The important finding from the validation of comparative studies was that the vacuum decay method resulted in the most effective, reliable and repeatable detection of defective samples, whether the defect was exposed to sterile water, to drug product, or to air. Complete sets of known defects were created for this purpose (5 μm, 10 μm, 20 μm certified leakages by laser drilled holes and capillary tubes). All investigations and studies were conducted at Bonfiglioli Engineering S.r.l. (Vigarano Pieve, Ferrara, Italy) and at Novartis Vaccines (Sovicille, Siena, Italy). © PDA, Inc. 2015.

  12. Simulation of future stream alkalinity under changing deposition and climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Welsch, Daniel L.; Jack Cosby, B.; Hornberger, George M.

    2006-01-01

    Models of soil and stream water acidification have typically been applied under scenarios of changing acidic deposition, however, climate change is usually ignored. Soil air CO 2 concentrations have potential to increase as climate warms and becomes wetter, thus affecting soil and stream water chemistry by initially increasing stream alkalinity at the expense of reducing base saturation levels on soil exchange sites. We simulate this change by applying a series of physically based coupled models capable of predicting soil air CO 2 and stream water chemistry. We predict daily stream water alkalinity for a small catchment in the Virginia Blue Ridge for 60 years into the future given stochastically generated daily climate values. This is done for nine different combinations of climate and deposition. The scenarios for both climate and deposition include a static scenario, a scenario of gradual change, and a scenario of abrupt change. We find that stream water alkalinity continues to decline for all scenarios (average decrease of 14.4 μeq L - 1 ) except where climate is gradually warming and becoming more moist (average increase of 13 μeq L - 1 ). In all other scenarios, base cation removal from catchment soils is responsible for limited alkalinity increase resulting from climate change. This has implications given the extent that acidification models are used to establish policy and legislation concerning deposition and emissions

  13. The future of nuclear power in China: Long-term scenarios - 5129

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paltsev, S.; Zhang, D.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear power will play an important role in reaching China government's 2020 goal of raising the proportion of energy produced by non-fossil fuel to 15 percent and stabilizing carbon emissions by 2030. It will also contribute to lower air pollution emissions. In the medium scenario, nuclear power development is constrained by the available sites verified in preliminary explorations. The installed nuclear power capacity reaches 160 GW by 2050. Nuclear generation grows ten times relative to the current capacity, but a share of nuclear power is still only 10% of total electricity generation in China by 2050. In the high scenario, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 400 GW by 2050, which provides about 30% of electricity by 2050. In the low scenario of no licensing for new sites, the installed nuclear power capacity reaches 95 GW by 2050. For environmental impacts, in 2050 high scenario leads to about 20% reduction in total China's CO 2 emissions and about 25% reduction in a major air pollutant SO 2 relative to medium scenario. Availability of relatively cheap natural gas for electricity mostly replaces coal-based generation while keeping similar profiles for nuclear generation as in the high cost natural gas scenarios. (authors)

  14. Some perspective decisions for the regeneration system equipment of the thermal and nuclear power plants decreasing the probability of water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trifonov, N. N.; Svyatkin, F. A.; Sintsova, T. G.; Ukhanova, M. G.; Yesin, S. B.; Nikolayenkova, E. K.; Yurchenko, A. Yu.; Grigorieva, E. B.

    2016-03-01

    The regeneration system heaters are one of the sources of possible ingress of the water into the turbine. The water penetrates into the turbine either at the heaters overflow or with the return flow of steam generated when the water being in the heater boils up in the dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit. The return flow of steam and water is dangerous to the turbine blades and can result in the rotor acceleration. The known protective devices used to prevent the overflow of the low-pressure and high-pressure heaters (LPH and HPH), of the horizontal and vertical heaters of heating-system water (HWH and VWH), as well as of the deaerators and low-pressure mixing heaters (LPMH) were considered. The main protective methods of the steam and water return flows supplied by the heaters in dynamic operation modes or at deenergization of the power-generating unit are described. Previous operating experience shows that the available protections do not fully prevent water ingress into the turbine and the rotor acceleration and, therefore, the development of measures to decrease the possibility of ingress of the water into the turbine is an actual problem. The measures allowing eliminating or reducing the water mass in the heaters are expounded; some of them were designed by the specialists of OAO Polzunov Scientific and Development Association on Research and Design of Power Equipment (NPO CKTI) and are efficiently introduced at heat power plants and nuclear power plants. The suggested technical solutions allow reducing the possibility of the water ingress into the turbine and rotor acceleration by return steam flow in the dynamic operation modes or in the case of power generating unit deenergization. Some of these solutions have been tested in experimental-industrial exploitation and can be used in industry.

  15. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    OpenAIRE

    K. Markakis; M. Valari; A. Colette; O. Sanchez; O. Perrussel; C. Honore; R. Vautard; Z. Klimont; S. Rao

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed bas...

  16. Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-6 test data report: thermal hydraulic results, Rev. 0

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure? (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼ φ 30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength is being addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus measures the fracture strength of the crust while it is either at room temperature or above, the latter state being achieved with a heating element placed below the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the sixth water ingression test, designated SSWICS-6. This test investigated

  17. Solution space diagram in conflict detection scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rahman, S.M.A.; Borst, C.; Mulder, M.; Van Paassen, M.M.

    2015-01-01

    This research investigates the use of Solution Space Diagram (SSD) as a measure of sector complexity and also as a predictor of performance and workload, focusing on the scenarios regarding Air Traffic Controller (ATCO)’s ability to detect future conflicts. A human-in-the-loop experiment with

  18. Ontario Hydro's integrated air management plan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kalvins, A.K.; Brown, D.; Camacho, F.; Howes, H.; Jantzi, B.; Lin, X.; Lui, P.; Melo, O.T.; Mortimer, W.P.; Reuber, B.

    1992-01-01

    Ontario Hydro is developing an integrated air management plan as a tool for comparing the environmental impacts of fossil-fuel power generation options. The goal is to relate equipment, location, emissions, and impacts and to identify the optimum way to manage the utility's fossil generation system in view of upcoming environmental regulations and public expectations. The eight steps of the plan are briefly described: definition of power generation scenarios (upgrading, conversion to natural gas, non-utility generation, alternative technologies); estimation of emissions for each generation and fuel option studied; identification of impact of air emissions on building materials, agriculture, forests, lakes, and fisheries; modelling of air emissions dispersion; quantification of damage to pollution receptors; quantification of full fuel cycle effects; and comparison of the scenarios. The scenario having the lowest overall environmental impact involved upgrading the existing fossil-fuel system with additional air emissions controls and two integrated gasification combined cycle plants. 9 refs., 3 figs., 3 tabs

  19. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents - Progress report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kaerkelae, T.; Backman, U.; Auvinen, A.; Ziliacus, R.; Lipponen, M.; Kekki, T.; Tapper, U.; Jokiniemi, J.

    2006-02-01

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In an accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium can oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species it is of interest to know, how it is formed and how it behaves. In our experiments RuO2 is exposed to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. In this report, the experimental system for the ruthenium behaviour study is presented. Also preliminary results from experiments carried out during year 2005 are reported. In the experiments gaseous ruthenium oxides were produced in a furnace. Upon cooling RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed with plane filters from the gas stream. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close mass balance and achieve better time resolution three experiment using radioactive tracer were carried out. (au)

  20. Experiments on the behaviour of ruthenium in air ingress accidents - Progress report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kaerkelae, T.; Backman, U.; Auvinen, A.; Ziliacus, R.; Lipponen, M.; Kekki, T.; Tapper, U.; Jokiniemi, J. [VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland (Finland)

    2006-02-15

    During routine nuclear reactor operation, ruthenium will accumulate in the fuel in relatively high concentrations. In an accident in a nuclear power plant it is possible that air gets into contact with the reactor core. In this case ruthenium can oxidise and form volatile ruthenium species, RuO3 and RuO4, which can be transported into the containment. In order to estimate the amount of gaseous ruthenium species it is of interest to know, how it is formed and how it behaves. In our experiments RuO2 is exposed to diverse oxidising atmospheres at a relatively high temperature. In this report, the experimental system for the ruthenium behaviour study is presented. Also preliminary results from experiments carried out during year 2005 are reported. In the experiments gaseous ruthenium oxides were produced in a furnace. Upon cooling RuO2 aerosol particles were formed in the system. They were removed with plane filters from the gas stream. Gaseous ruthenium species were trapped in 1M NaOH-water solution, which is capable of trapping RuO4 totally. Ruthenium in the solution was filtered for analysis. The determination of ruthenium both in aerosol and in liquid filters was made using instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA). In order to close mass balance and achieve better time resolution three experiment using radioactive tracer were carried out. (au)

  1. Preliminary assessment of the health and environmental effects of coal utilization in the midwest. Volume I. Energy scenarios, technology characterizations, air and water resource impacts, and health effects

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    None

    1977-01-01

    An initial evaluation of the major health and environmental issues associated with increased coal use in the six midwestern states of Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Minnesota, Ohio, and Wisconsin is presented. Using an integrated assessment approach, the evaluation proceeds from a base-line scenario of energy demand and facility siting for the period 1975 to 2020. Emphasis is placed on impacts from coal extraction, land reclamation, coal combustion for electrical generation, and coal gasification. The range of potential impacts and constraints is illustrated by a second scenario that represents an expected upper limit for coal utilization in Illinois. Included are: (1) a characterization of the energy demand and siting scenarios, coal related technologies, and coal resources, and (2) the related impacts on air quality, water availability, water quality, and human health.

  2. Final Report Balancing energy conservation and occupant needs in ventilation rate standards for Big Box stores in California. Predicted indoor air quality and energy consumption using a matrix of ventilation scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Apte, Michael G. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Mendell, Mark J. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Dutton, Spencer M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Berkeley, Pam M. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States); Spears, Michael [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

    2011-02-01

    Through mass-balance modeling of various ventilation scenarios that might satisfy the ASHRAE 62.1 Indoor Air Quality (IAQ) Procedure, we estimate indoor concentrations of contaminants of concern (COCs) in California “big box” stores, compare estimates to available thresholds, and for selected scenarios estimate differences in energy consumption. Findings are intended to inform decisions on adding performance-based approaches to ventilation rate (VR) standards for commercial buildings. Using multi-zone mass-balance models and available contaminant source rates, we estimated concentrations of 34 COCs for multiple ventilation scenarios: VRmin (0.04 cfm/ft2 ), VRmax (0.24 cfm/ft2 ), and VRmid (0.14 cfm/ft2 ). We compared COC concentrations with available health, olfactory, and irritant thresholds. We estimated building energy consumption at different VRs using a previously developed EnergyPlus model. VRmax did control all contaminants adequately, but VRmin did not, and VRmid did so only marginally. Air cleaning and local ventilation near strong sources both showed promise. Higher VRs increased indoor concentrations of outdoor air pollutants. Lowering VRs in big box stores in California from VRmax to VRmid would reduce total energy use by an estimated 6.6% and energy costs by 2.5%. Reducing the required VRs in California’s big box stores could reduce energy use and costs, but poses challenges for health and comfort of occupants. Source removal, air cleaning, and local ventilation may be needed at reduced VRs, and even at current recommended VRs. Also, alternative ventilation strategies taking climate and season into account in ventilation schedules may provide greater energy cost savings than constant ventilation rates, while improving IAQ.

  3. Methods and data for HTGR fuel performance and radionuclide release modeling during normal operation and accidents for safety analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Verfondern, K.; Martin, R.C.; Moormann, R.

    1993-01-01

    The previous status report released in 1987 on reference data and calculation models for fission product transport in High-Temperature, Gas-Cooled Reactor (HTGR) safety analyses has been updated to reflect the current state of knowledge in the German HTGR program. The content of the status report has been expanded to include information from other national programs in HTGRs to provide comparative information on methods of analysis and the underlying database for fuel performance and fission product transport. The release and transport of fission products during normal operating conditions and during the accident scenarios of core heatup, water and air ingress, and depressurization are discussed. (orig.) [de

  4. Climate, Air Quality, and Human Health Benefits of Various Solar Photovoltaic Development Scenarios in China in 2030

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, J.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Wagner, F.; Li, X.

    2016-12-01

    Solar photovoltaic (PV) technology can greatly reduce both air pollution and GHG emissions from the power sector. The Chinese government has plans to scale up solar PV installation between now and 2030. However, there is little analysis of how deployment strategies will influence the range of benefits. Here we conduct the first integrated assessment study that quantifies the climate, air quality, and related human health benefits of various solar PV development strategies in 2030 China. Our results indicate that both the location of PV deployment, which coal power plants are replaced, and the extent of inter-provincial transmission greatly influence the co-benefits. We compare CO2 and PM2.5 reductions from two PV installation scenarios both with the 2030 government target of 400 GW national installed capacity. First, we assume all solar PV is utilized within the province in which it is generated and that it can not exceed 30% of total provincial electricity generation. We find that deploying more solar PV in locations near load centers via distributed PV systems has larger benefits and could lead to approximately 20,500 (between 8000 - 32,400, high and low bounds) annual avoided premature deaths, 15% more than building utility-scale solar PV plants in the sunny, yet sparsely populated northwest. The difference occurs because in the northwest a lower population and cleaner air leads to smaller reductions in air pollution related premature mortalities. Also greater potential for PV curtailment exists in the west. In terms of CO2 reduction, deploying PV near load centers leads to 12% greater reductions in CO2 emissions from the power sector - approximately 5% of China's total CO2 emission in 2030. Second, we enable inter-provincial transmission of PV electricity within each of China's six regional grids which allows greater use of abundant sunlight in the northwest. Our results for 2030 show that by expanding to the regional grid, curtailment rates in the northwest

  5. Roles of texture in controlling oxidation, hydrogen ingress and hydride formation in Zr alloys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szpunar, Jerzy A.; Qin, Wen; Li, Hualong; Kumar, Kiran

    2011-01-01

    Experimental observations shows that the oxide formed on Zr alloys are strongly textured. The texture and grain-boundary characteristics of oxide are dependent on the texture of metal substrate. Computer simulation and thermodynamic modeling clarify the effect of metal substrate on structure of oxide film, and intrinsic factors affecting the microstructure. Models of diffusion process of hydrogen atoms and oxygen diffusion through oxide are presented. Both intra-granular and inter-granular hydrides were found following (0001) α-Zr //(111) δ-ZrH1.5 relationship. The through-thickness texture inhomogeneity in cladding tubes, the effects of hoop stress on the hydride orientation and the formation of interlinked hydride structure were studied. A thermodynamic model was developed to analyze the nucleation and the stress-induced reorientation of intergranular hydrides. These works provide a framework for understanding the oxidation, the hydrogen ingress and the hydride formation in Zr alloys. (author)

  6. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    OpenAIRE

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year...

  7. Air quality in the mid-21. century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km x 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km x 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the 'business-as-usual' scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic 'mitigation' scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions

  8. Air-quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from regional to local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-01-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. High-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10 yr control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present time levels over Paris is modeled under the "business as usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic mitigation scenario leads to moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current, urban scale study, is driven by VOC-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer time-scale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under "business as usual" and "mitigation" scenarios respectively compared to present time period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the smoothing of the large urban increment

  9. Source term estimation for small sized HTRs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moormann, R.

    1992-08-01

    Accidents which have to be considered are core heat-up, reactivity transients, water of air ingress and primary circuit depressurization. The main effort of this paper belongs to water/air ingress and depressurization, which requires consideration of fission product plateout under normal operation conditions; for the latter it is clearly shown, that absorption (penetration) mechanisms are much less important than assumed sometimes in the past. Source term estimation procedures for core heat-up events are shortly reviewed; reactivity transients are apparently covered by them. Besides a general literature survey including identification of areas with insufficient knowledge this paper contains some estimations on the thermomechanical behaviour of fission products in water in air ingress accidents. Typical source term examples are also presented. In an appendix, evaluations of the AVR experiments VAMPYR-I and -II with respect to plateout and fission product filter efficiency are outlined and used for a validation step of the new plateout code SPATRA. (orig.)

  10. Establishing the common patterns of future tropospheric ozone under diverse climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jimenez-Guerrero, Pedro; Gómez-Navarro, Juan J.; Jerez, Sonia; Lorente-Plazas, Raquel; Baro, Rocio; Montávez, Juan P.

    2013-04-01

    The impacts of climate change on air quality may affect long-term air quality planning. However, the policies aimed at improving air quality in the EU directives have not accounted for the variations in the climate. Climate change alone influences future air quality through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. As such, the aim of this work is to check whether the projected changes in gas-phase air pollution over Europe depends on the scenario driving the regional simulation. For this purpose, two full-transient regional climate change-air quality projections for the first half of the XXI century (1991-2050) have been carried out with MM5+CHIMERE system, including A2 and B2 SRES scenarios. Experiments span the periods 1971-2000, as a reference, and 2071-2100, as future enhanced greenhouse gas and aerosol scenarios (SRES A2 and B2). The atmospheric simulations have a horizontal resolution of 25 km and 23 vertical layers up to 100 mb, and were driven by ECHO-G global climate model outputs. The analysis focuses on the connection between meteorological and air quality variables. Our simulations suggest that the modes of variability for tropospheric ozone and their main precursors hardly change under different SRES scenarios. The effect of changing scenarios has to be sought in the intensity of the changing signal, rather than in the spatial structure of the variation patterns, since the correlation between the spatial patterns of variability in A2 and B2 simulation is r > 0.75 for all gas-phase pollutants included in this study. In both cases, full-transient simulations indicate an enhanced enhanced chemical activity under future scenarios. The causes for tropospheric ozone variations have to be sought in a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, different distribution of precipitation patterns across Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants due to lower cloudiness, etc

  11. Architecture for an integrated real-time air combat and sensor network simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Criswell, Evans A.; Rushing, John; Lin, Hong; Graves, Sara

    2007-04-01

    An architecture for an integrated air combat and sensor network simulation is presented. The architecture integrates two components: a parallel real-time sensor fusion and target tracking simulation, and an air combat simulation. By integrating these two simulations, it becomes possible to experiment with scenarios in which one or both sides in a battle have very large numbers of primitive passive sensors, and to assess the likely effects of those sensors on the outcome of the battle. Modern Air Power is a real-time theater-level air combat simulation that is currently being used as a part of the USAF Air and Space Basic Course (ASBC). The simulation includes a variety of scenarios from the Vietnam war to the present day, and also includes several hypothetical future scenarios. Modern Air Power includes a scenario editor, an order of battle editor, and full AI customization features that make it possible to quickly construct scenarios for any conflict of interest. The scenario editor makes it possible to place a wide variety of sensors including both high fidelity sensors such as radars, and primitive passive sensors that provide only very limited information. The parallel real-time sensor network simulation is capable of handling very large numbers of sensors on a computing cluster of modest size. It can fuse information provided by disparate sensors to detect and track targets, and produce target tracks.

  12. Photochemical model evaluation of the ground-level ozone impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health in the Alberta oil sands region: Using present and future emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijayaraghavan, Krish; Cho, Sunny; Morris, Ralph; Spink, David; Jung, Jaegun; Pauls, Ron; Duffett, Katherine

    2016-09-01

    One of the potential environmental issues associated with oil sands development is increased ozone formation resulting from NOX and volatile organic compound emissions from bitumen extraction, processing and upgrading. To manage this issue in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR) in northeast Alberta, a regional multi-stakeholder group, the Cumulative Environmental Management Association (CEMA), developed an Ozone Management Framework that includes a modelling based assessment component. In this paper, we describe how the Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) model was applied to assess potential ground-level ozone formation and impacts on ambient air quality and vegetation health for three different ozone precursor cases in the AOSR. Statistical analysis methods were applied, and the CMAQ performance results met the U.S. EPA model performance goal at all sites. The modelled 4th highest daily maximum 8-h average ozone concentrations in the base and two future year scenarios did not exceed the Canada-wide standard of 65 ppb or the newer Canadian Ambient Air Quality Standards of 63 ppb in 2015 and 62 ppb in 2020. Modelled maximum 1-h ozone concentrations in the study were well below the Alberta Ambient Air Quality Objective of 82 ppb in all three cases. Several ozone vegetation exposure metrics were also evaluated to investigate the potential impact of ground-level ozone on vegetation. The chronic 3-months SUM60 exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline range (0-2000 ppb-hr) everywhere in the AOSR. The AOT40 ozone exposure metric predicted by CMAQ did not exceed the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UN/ECE) threshold of concern of 3000 ppb-hr in any of the cases but is just below the threshold in high-end future emissions scenario. In all three emission scenarios, the CMAQ predicted W126 ozone exposure metric is within the CEMA baseline threshold of 4000 ppb-hr. This study outlines the use of photochemical modelling of the impact of an industry (oil

  13. Impact of Air Entraining Method on the Resistance of Concrete to Internal Cracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wawrzeńczyk, Jerzy; Molendowska, Agnieszka

    2017-10-01

    This paper presents the test results of air entrained concrete mixtures made at a constant W/C ratio of 0.44. Three different air entraining agents were used: polymer microspheres, glass microspheres and a conventional air entraining admixture. The aim of this study was to compare the effectiveness of the air entraining methods. Concrete mixture tests were performed for consistency (slump test), density and, in the case of AEA series, air content by pressure method. Hardened concrete tests were performed for compressive strength, water absorption, resistance to chloride ingress, and freeze-thaw durability - resistance to internal cracking tests were conducted in accordance with PN-88/B-06250 on cube specimens and with the modified ASTM C666 A test method on beam specimens; porosity characteristics (A, A300, \\bar L) were determined to PN-EN 480-11:1998. No significant mass and length changes were recorded for the concrete air entrained with the conventional methods or with polymer microspheres. The results indicate that polymer microspheres are a very good alternative to traditional air entraining methods for concrete, providing effective air entrainment and protection from freezing and thawing. The glass microsphere-based concretes showed insufficient freeze-thaw resistance. The test results indicate that both the conventional methods (AEA) and the air entrainment by polymer microspheres are effective air entraining methods. It has to be noted that in the case of the use of polymer microspheres, a comparable value of \\bar L and a very good freeze-thaw resistance can be achieved at a noticeably lower air and micropore contents and at lower strength loss.

  14. Air quality in the mid-21st century for the city of Paris under two climate scenarios; from the regional to local scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markakis, K.; Valari, M.; Colette, A.; Sanchez, O.; Perrussel, O.; Honore, C.; Vautard, R.; Klimont, Z.; Rao, S.

    2014-07-01

    Ozone and PM2.5 concentrations over the city of Paris are modeled with the CHIMERE air-quality model at 4 km × 4 km horizontal resolution for two future emission scenarios. A high-resolution (1 km × 1 km) emission projection until 2020 for the greater Paris region is developed by local experts (AIRPARIF) and is further extended to year 2050 based on regional-scale emission projections developed by the Global Energy Assessment. Model evaluation is performed based on a 10-year control simulation. Ozone is in very good agreement with measurements while PM2.5 is underestimated by 20% over the urban area mainly due to a large wet bias in wintertime precipitation. A significant increase of maximum ozone relative to present-day levels over Paris is modeled under the "business-as-usual" scenario (+7 ppb) while a more optimistic "mitigation" scenario leads to a moderate ozone decrease (-3.5 ppb) in year 2050. These results are substantially different to previous regional-scale projections where 2050 ozone is found to decrease under both future scenarios. A sensitivity analysis showed that this difference is due to the fact that ozone formation over Paris at the current urban-scale study is driven by volatile organic compound (VOC)-limited chemistry, whereas at the regional-scale ozone formation occurs under NOx-sensitive conditions. This explains why the sharp NOx reductions implemented in the future scenarios have a different effect on ozone projections at different scales. In rural areas, projections at both scales yield similar results showing that the longer timescale processes of emission transport and ozone formation are less sensitive to model resolution. PM2.5 concentrations decrease by 78% and 89% under business-as-usual and mitigation scenarios, respectively, compared to the present-day period. The reduction is much more prominent over the urban part of the domain due to the effective reductions of road transport and residential emissions resulting in the

  15. Design for air-to-air refuelling operations; new passenger and tanker aircraft design for AAR scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Li, M.O.

    2014-01-01

    Air-to-air refuelling is a way to improve fuel efficiency of the overall transport system without waiting for the improvement of basic aviation technology. To take full advantage of such an operation, both passenger aircraft and tanker aircraft (which deliver required fuel to the passenger aircraft

  16. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A

    2005-07-15

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  17. Emission scenarios 1985-2010: Their influence on ozone in Switzerland - Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, J.; Andreani-Aksoyoglu, S.; Tinguely, M.; Prevot, A.

    2005-07-01

    Ozone levels often exceed the ambient air quality standards during summer time. Since 1985, numerous regulations have been enforced or proposed to improve air quality in Europe. In this study we investigated the effect of these measures on ozone. Seven anthropogenic emission scenarios have been selected: scenario 0: emissions as reported for 2000 (base case); scenario 1: emissions as reported for 1985; scenario 2: emissions in 2000, if economy (and emissions) grows without control; scenario 3: emissions in 2010, if the Gothenburg Protocol is in force; scenario 4: emissions in 2010 according to the current legislation; scenario 5: emissions in 2010: 100% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 6: emissions in 2010: 50% and 50% of the Gothenburg target emissions in Europe and in Switzerland, respectively; scenario 7: zero anthropogenic emissions in Switzerland, base case emissions elsewhere. The 4-day period from 4 to 7 August 2003 was studied by means of the 3-dimensional photochemical model CAMx with 2 nested domains. The coarse domain covered a large part of Europe with a horizontal resolution of 27 km x 27 km. Switzerland and parts of the surrounding countries including the Greater Milan area were covered by the fine domain with resolution of 9 km x 9 km. Gridded meteorological data were obtained from MM5 meteorological model. The emission inventory was prepared by compiling European and Swiss anthropogenic emissions from various sources. Reference year was 2000. Biogenic emissions were calculated with temperature and irradiance dependent algorithms using land use and meteorological data. Initial and boundary conditions were adjusted from the output of the global model MOZART. The model could reproduce peak ozone concentrations around large urban areas. Model results were strongly affected by meteorological parameterization and emissions. Compared to 2000, ozone concentrations in 1985 were about 5% higher in

  18. Global Scenarios of Air Pollution until 2030: Combining Air Quality, Climate Change and Energy Access Policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rao, S.; Dentener, F. J.; Klimont, Z.; Riahi, K.

    2011-12-01

    Outdoor air pollution is increasingly recognized as a significant contributor to global health outcomes. This has led to the implementation of a number of air quality policies worldwide, with total air pollution control costs in 2005 estimated at US$195 billion. More than 80% of the world's population is still found to be exposed to PM2.5 concentrations exceeding WHO air quality guidelines and health impacts resulting from these exposures estimated at around 2-5% of the global disease burden. Key questions to answer are 1) How will pollutant emissions evolve in the future given developments in the energy system and how will energy and environmental policies influence such emission trends. 2) What implications will this have for resulting exposures and related health outcomes. In order to answer these questions, varying levels of stringency of air quality legislation are analyzed in combination with policies on universal access to clean cooking fuels and limiting global temperature change to 2°C in 2100. Bottom-up methodologies using energy emissions modeling are used to derive sector-based pollutant emission trajectories until 2030. Emissions are spatially downscaled and used in combination with a global transport chemistry model to derive ambient concentrations of PM2.5. Health impacts of these exposures are further estimated consistent with WHO data and methodology. The results indicate that currently planned air quality legislation combined with rising energy demand will be insufficient in controlling future emissions growth in developing countries. In order to achieve significant reductions in pollutant emissions of the order of more than 50% from 2005 levels and reduce exposures to levels consistent with WHO standards, it will be necessary to increase the stringency of such legislations and combine them with policies on energy access and climate change. Combined policies also result in reductions in air pollution control costs as compared to those associated

  19. Air oxidation of Zircaloy-4 in the 600-1000 °C temperature range: Modeling for ASTEC code application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coindreau, O.; Duriez, C.; Ederli, S.

    2010-10-01

    Progress in the treatment of air oxidation of zirconium in severe accident (SA) codes are required for a reliable analysis of severe accidents involving air ingress. Air oxidation of zirconium can actually lead to accelerated core degradation and increased fission product release, especially for the highly-radiotoxic ruthenium. This paper presents a model to simulate air oxidation kinetics of Zircaloy-4 in the 600-1000 °C temperature range. It is based on available experimental data, including separate-effect experiments performed at IRSN and at Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe. The kinetic transition, named "breakaway", from a diffusion-controlled regime to an accelerated oxidation is taken into account in the modeling via a critical mass gain parameter. The progressive propagation of the locally initiated breakaway is modeled by a linear increase in oxidation rate with time. Finally, when breakaway propagation is completed, the oxidation rate stabilizes and the kinetics is modeled by a linear law. This new modeling is integrated in the severe accident code ASTEC, jointly developed by IRSN and GRS. Model predictions and experimental data from thermogravimetric results show good agreement for different air flow rates and for slow temperature transient conditions.

  20. Crew Configuration, Ingress/Egress Procedures, and In-Flight Caregiving Capacity in a Space Ambulance Based on the Boeing X-37B

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halberg, Ephriam Etan

    This study proposes that a Boeing X-37B space plane, its dimensions and performance characteristics estimated from publicly available documents, diagrams, and photographs, could be internally redesigned as a medical evacuation (ambulance) vehicle for the International Space Station. As of 2017, there is currently no spacecraft designed to accommodate a contingency medical evacuation wherein a crew member aboard the ISS is injured or ailing and must be returned to Earth for immediate medical attention. The X-37B is an unmanned vehicle with a history of success in both sub-orbital testing and all four of its long-duration orbital missions to date. Research conducted at UC Davis suggests that it is possible to retain the outer mold line of the X-37B while expanding the internal payload compartment to a volume sufficient for a crew of three--pilot, crew medical officer, and injured crew member--throughout ISS un-dock and atmospheric entry, descent, and landing. In addition to crew life support systems, this re-purposed X-37B, hereafter referred to as the X-37SA (Space Ambulance), includes medical equipment for stabilization of a patient in-transit. This study suggests an optimal, ergonomic crew configuration and berthing port location, procedures for microgravity ingress and 1G egress, a minimum medical equipment list and location within the crew cabin for the medical care and monitoring equipment. Conceptual crew configuration, ingress/egress procedures, and patient/equipment access are validated via physical simulation in a full-scale mockup of the proposed X-37SA crew cabin.

  1. Shaping Air Mobility Forces for Future Relevance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    King Air University Press 600 Chennault Circle, Building 1405 Maxwell AFB, AL 36112-6010 afri.aupress@us.af.mil http://aupress.au.af.mil...the congressional study’s Persian Gulf scenario.37 Later Defense Department air mobility plans continued the CMMS pat- tern of paring down air mobility

  2. On possibilities to decrease influence of oxidation processes on oil yield at oil shale retorting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yefimov, V.; Loeoeper, R.; Doilov, S.; Kundel, H.

    1993-01-01

    At the present technical level retorting is carried out so that an increase in specific air consumption results in an increase of oxygen ingress into the semi coking shaft. At the same time a direct relationship between the degree of volatiles pyrolysis and specific air consumption was observed. This regularity enables to assume that within the reaction volume there occurs most likely the thermo oxidative pyrolysis of volatile products, not the oxidation of oil shale as it is considered traditionally. The main source of oxygen ingress ed into the semi coking shaft at processing oil shale in retorts is the process of spent shale. This process is not fully elaborated for utilization in commercial scale and can not be arranged so that the ingress of oxygen into the smacking chamber could be eliminated. In case of a slower semi coke gasification process and reduced specific air consumption for gasification the absolute amount of oxygen ingress ed into the semi coking shaft also decreases. One of the efficient methods to decrease specific air consumption is to build furnaces into the semi coking chamber to obtain additional amount of heat carrier by combusting generator gas. The maximum effect is reached when steam-and-air blow is completely replaced by recycle gas: specific air consumption is reduced whereas recycle gas is deoxygenated in the cooling zone while passing through spent shale bed which has the temperature of about 500 deg C. Another possible source of oxygen to the semi coking shaft with heat carrier is production of flue gases by combusting recycle gas in burners built in retorts. We consider the recycle gas employed upon processing oil shale in retorts hardly to be an appreciable source of the oxygen ingress into the semi coking shaft. Additional amounts of residual oxygen containing in recycle gas fed into both cooling zone and furnaces are practically totally consumed at gas combusting and passing across the bed of semi coke heated up to approximately

  3. OECM MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-2 final data report, Rev. 0 February 12, 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the second water ingression test, designated SSWICS-2. The test investigated the quench behavior of a 15 cm deep, fully

  4. MARKAL SCENARIO ANALYSES OF TECHNOLOGY OPTIONS FOR THE ELECTRIC SECTOR: THE IMPACT ON AIR QUALITY

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report provides a general overview of EPA’s national MARKAL database and energy systems model and compares various scenarios to a business as usual baseline scenario. Under baseline assumptions, total electricity use increases 1.3% annually until 2030. Annual growth in ele...

  5. Study on scenario evaluation methodology for decommissioning nuclear facilities using fuzzy logic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuhashi, Kazuya; Yanagihara, Satoshi

    2015-01-01

    Since there are many scenarios of the process from start to completion of a decommissioning project, it is important to study scenarios of decommissioning by evaluating such properties as safety, cost, and technology. An optimum scenario with the highest feasibility in accordance with the facility and environmental conditions should be selected on the basis of the results of the study. For analyzing a scenario of decommissioning, we prepared structured work packages by using the work breakdown structures (WBS) method together with qualitative evaluation of the technologies being applied to work packages located at the bottom (the third level) of the WBS. A calculation model was constructed to evaluate the feasibility of a scenario where fuzzy logic is applied to derive a score of technology performance and TOPSIS is applied for getting a feasibility grade of the scenario from technical performance scoring. As a case study, the model was applied to the debris removal scenario of Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant to confirm its applicability. Two scenarios, underwater and in-air debris removal cases, were characterized by extracting the work packages with the lowest feasibility and by obtaining total average scores of the scenarios. It is confirmed that the methodology developed is useful for the scenario evaluation of decommissioning nuclear facilities. (author)

  6. Towards a user's guide to scenarios - a report on scenario types and scenario techniques

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boerjeson, Lena; Hoejer, Mattias; Dreborg, Karl-Henrik; Finnveden, Goeran [Royal Inst. of Technology, Stockholm (Sweden). Environmental Strategies Research - fms; Ekvall, Tomas [Chalmers Univ. of Technology, Goeteborg (Sweden). Dept. of Energy and Environment

    2005-11-01

    Futures studies consist of a vast variation of studies and approaches. The aim of this paper is to contribute to the understanding of for what purposes scenarios are useful and what methods and procedures are useful for furthering these purposes. We present a scenario typology with an aim to better suit the context in which the scenarios are used. The scenario typology is combined with a new way of looking at scenario techniques, i.e. practical methods and procedures for scenario development. Finally, we look at the usefulness of scenarios in the light of the scenario typology and the scenario techniques. As a start, we distinguish between three main categories of scenario studies. The classification is based on the principal questions we believe a user may want to pose about the future. The resolution is then increased by letting each category contain two different scenario types. These are distinguished by different angles of approach of the questions defining the categories. The first question, What will happen?, is responded to by Predictive scenarios. In fact, the response to a question like this will always be conditional, e.g. of a stable and peaceful world, or by a certain continuous development of some kind. We have utilized this fact when defining the two predictive scenario types, Forecasts and What-if scenarios. The second question, What can happen?, is responded to by Explorative scenarios. The scenarios are thus explorations of what might happen in the future, regardless of beliefs of what is likely to happen or opinions of what is desirable. This category is further divided into external and strategic scenarios. The final question, How can a specific target be reached?, is responded to by Normative scenarios. Such studies are explicitly normative, since they take a target as a starting point. They are often directed towards how the target could be reached. This category is divided into preserving and transforming scenarios. If the user wants to

  7. Climate scenarios for semi-arid and sub-humid regions. A comparison of climate scenarios for the dryland regions, in West Africa from 1990 to 2050

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van den Born GJ; Schaeffer M; Leemans R; NOP

    2001-01-01

    The identification of climate scenarios for dryland areas in Sub-Saharan West Africa is part of a project to assess the impact of climate change on water availability, agriculture and food security in drylands (ICCD-project). The project is financed by Netherlands Research Programme on Global Air

  8. OECD MCCI project Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-1 test data report: thermal hydraulic results. Rev. 0 September 20, 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.J.; Aeschlimann, R.W.; Basu, S.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the first water ingression test, designated SSWICS-1. The report includes a description of the test apparatus, the

  9. Magnitude and reactivity consequences of accidental moisture ingress into the Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor core

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, O.L.

    1992-01-01

    Accidental admission of moisture into the primary system of a Modular High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor (MHTGR) has been identified in US Department of Energy-sponsored studies as an important safety concern. The work described here develops an analytical methodology to quantify the pressure and reactivity consequences of steam-generator tube rupture and other moistureingress-related incidents. Important neutronic and thermohydraulic processes are coupled with reactivity feedback and safety and control system responses. Rate and magnitude of steam buildup are found to be dominated by major system features such as break size in comparison with safety valve capacity and reliability, while being less sensitive to factors such as heat transfer coefficients. The results indicate that ingress transients progress at a slower pace than previously predicted by bounding analyses, with milder power overshoots and more time for operator or automatic corrective actions

  10. Air quality and passenger comfort in an air-conditioned bus micro-environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaoxuan; Lei, Li; Wang, Xingshen; Zhang, Yinghui

    2018-04-12

    In this study, passenger comfort and the air pollution status of the micro-environmental conditions in an air-conditioned bus were investigated through questionnaires, field measurements, and a numerical simulation. As a subjective analysis, passengers' perceptions of indoor environmental quality and comfort levels were determined from questionnaires. As an objective analysis, a numerical simulation was conducted using a discrete phase model to determine the diffusion and distribution of pollutants, including particulate matter with a diameter air quality and dissatisfactory thermal comfort conditions in Jinan's air-conditioned bus system. To solve these problems, three scenarios (schemes A, B, C) were designed to alter the ventilation parameters. According to the results of an improved simulation of these scenarios, reducing or adding air outputs would shorten the time taken to reach steady-state conditions and weaken the airflow or lower the temperature in the cabin. The airflow pathway was closely related to the layout of the air conditioning. Scheme B lowered the temperature by 0.4 K and reduced the airflow by 0.01 m/s, while scheme C reduced the volume concentration of PM 10 to 150 μg/m 3 . Changing the air supply angle could further improve the airflow and reduce the concentration of PM 10 . With regard to the perception of airflow and thermal comfort, the scheme with an airflow provided by a 60° nozzle was considered better, and the concentration of PM 10 was reduced to 130 μg/m 3 .

  11. Improving aggregate behavior in parking lots with appropriate local maneuvers

    KAUST Repository

    Rodriguez, Samuel

    2013-11-01

    In this paper we study the ingress and egress of pedestrians and vehicles in a parking lot. We show how local maneuvers executed by agents permit them to create trajectories in constrained environments, and to resolve the deadlocks between them in mixed-flow scenarios. We utilize a roadmap-based approach which allows us to map complex environments and generate heuristic local paths that are feasible for both pedestrians and vehicles. Finally, we examine the effect that some agent-behavioral parameters have on parking lot ingress and egress. © 2013 IEEE.

  12. The Interplay of Climate Change and Air Pollution on Health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orru, H; Ebi, K L; Forsberg, B

    2017-12-01

    Air pollution significantly affects health, causing up to 7 million premature deaths annually with an even larger number of hospitalizations and days of sick leave. Climate change could alter the dispersion of primary pollutants, particularly particulate matter, and intensify the formation of secondary pollutants, such as near-surface ozone. The purpose of the review is to evaluate the recent evidence on the impacts of climate change on air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts and identify knowledge gaps for future research. Several studies modelled future ozone and particulate matter concentrations and calculated the resulting health impacts under different climate scenarios. Due to climate change, ozone- and fine particle-related mortalities are expected to increase in most studies; however, results differ by region, assumed climate change scenario and other factors such as population and background emissions. This review explores the relationships between climate change, air pollution and air pollution-related health impacts. The results highly depend on the climate change scenario used and on projections of future air pollution emissions, with relatively high uncertainty. Studies primarily focused on mortality; projections on the effects on morbidity are needed.

  13. Measuring Workload Differences Between Short-term Memory and Long-term Memory Scenarios in a Simulated Flight Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berg, S. L.; Sheridan, T. B.

    1984-01-01

    Four highly experienced Air Force pilots each flew four simulated flight scenarios. Two scenarios required a great deal of aircraft maneuvering. The other two scenarios involved less maneuvering, but required remembering a number of items. All scenarios were designed to be equaly challenging. Pilot's Subjective Ratings for Activity-level, Complexity, Difficulty, Stress, and Workload were higher for the manuevering scenarios than the memory scenarios. At a moderate workload level, keeping the pilots active resulted in better aircraft control. When required to monitor and remember items, aircraft control tended to decrease. Pilots tended to weigh information about the spatial positioning and performance of their aircraft more heavily than other items.

  14. Comparative assessment of PSI air oxidation model implementation in SCDAPSim3.5, MELCOR 1.8.6 and MELCOR 2.1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fernandez-Moguel, Leticia

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • The PSI air oxidation model has been successfully implemented in MELCOR. • The model treats oxygen as an active species and nitrogen as a catalyst. • The implementation has been assessed against the previous post-test analyses for QUENCH-16. • The pre-oxidation and air phase were consistent when similar modelling options were used. • All code versions were in fair agreement with the experimental data. - Abstract: The PSI air oxidation model has been successfully implemented in the lump parameter code MELCOR. The PSI air oxidation model treats oxygen as an active species and nitrogen as a catalyst that accelerates the oxidation kinetics. The essential feature of the model is the transition from parabolic to linear kinetics. The implementation has been assessed against the previous post-test analyses for the air ingress experiment QUENCH-16 performed with a local version of RELAP5/SCDAPSim3.5. This version contains the PSI air oxidation model. The pre-oxidation and air phase were consistent when similar modelling options were used and all code versions were in fair agreement with the experimental data, showing consistency in the implementation of the model. The PSI air oxidation model will be used in the future for analysis of spent fuel pool uncovery sequences where steam/air mixture is the prototypical environment

  15. Underground infrastructure damage for a Chicago scenario

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dey, Thomas N [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bos, Rabdall J [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2011-01-25

    Estimating effects due to an urban IND (improvised nuclear device) on underground structures and underground utilities is a challenging task. Nuclear effects tests performed at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) during the era of nuclear weapons testing provides much information on how underground military structures respond. Transferring this knowledge to answer questions about the urban civilian environment is needed to help plan responses to IND scenarios. Explosions just above the ground surface can only couple a small fraction of the blast energy into an underground shock. The various forms of nuclear radiation have limited penetration into the ground. While the shock transmitted into the ground carries only a small fraction of the blast energy, peak stresses are generally higher and peak ground displacement is lower than in the air blast. While underground military structures are often designed to resist stresses substantially higher than due to the overlying rocks and soils (overburden), civilian structures such as subways and tunnels would generally only need to resist overburden conditions with a suitable safety factor. Just as we expect the buildings themselves to channel and shield air blast above ground, basements and other underground openings as well as changes of geology will channel and shield the underground shock wave. While a weaker shock is expected in an urban environment, small displacements on very close-by faults, and more likely, soils being displaced past building foundations where utility lines enter could readily damaged or disable these services. Immediately near an explosion, the blast can 'liquefy' a saturated soil creating a quicksand-like condition for a period of time. We extrapolate the nuclear effects experience to a Chicago-based scenario. We consider the TARP (Tunnel and Reservoir Project) and subway system and the underground lifeline (electric, gas, water, etc) system and provide guidance for planning this scenario.

  16. Accident and safety analyses for the HTR-modul. Partial project 1: Computer codes for system behaviour calculation. Final report. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohnert, G.; Becker, D.; Dilcher, L.; Doerner, G.; Feltes, W.; Gysler, G.; Haque, H.; Kindt, T.; Kohtz, N.; Lange, L.; Ragoss, H.

    1993-08-01

    The project encompasses the following project tasks and problems: (1) Studies relating to complete failure of the main heat transfer system; (2) Pebble flow; (3) Development of computer codes for detailed calculation of hypothetical accidents; (a) the THERMIX/RZKRIT temperature buildup code (covering a.o. a variation to include exothermal heat sources); (b) the REACT/THERMIX corrosion code (variation taking into account extremely severe air ingress into the primary loop); (c) the GRECO corrosion code (variation for treating extremely severe water ingress into the primary loop); (d) the KIND transients code (for treating extremely fast transients during reactivity incidents. (4) Limiting devices for safety-relevant quantities. (5) Analyses relating to hypothetical accidents. (a) hypothetical air ingress; (b) effects on the fuel particles induced by fast transients. The problems of the various tasks are defined in detail and the main results obtained are explained. The contributions reporting the various project tasks and activities have been prepared for separate retrieval from the database. (orig./HP) [de

  17. Accident and safety analyses for the HTR-modul. Partial project 1: Computer codes for system behaviour calculation. Final report. Pt. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lohnert, G.; Becker, D.; Dilcher, L.; Doerner, G.; Feltes, W.; Gysler, G.; Haque, H.; Kindt, T.; Kohtz, N.; Lange, L.; Ragoss, H.

    1993-08-01

    The project encompasses the following project tasks and problems: (1) Studies relating to complete failure of the main heat transfer system; (2) Pebble flow; (3) Development of computer codes for detailed calculation of hypothetical accidents; (a) the THERMIX/RZKRIT temperature buildup code (covering a.o. a variation to include exothermal heat sources); (b) the REACT/THERMIX corrosion code (variation taking into account extremely severe air ingress into the primary loop); (c) the GRECO corrosion code (variation for treating extremely severe water ingress into the primary loop); (d) the KIND transients code (for treating extremely fast transients during reactivity incidents. (4) Limiting devices for safety-relevant quantities. (5) Analyses relating to hypothetical accidents. (a) hypothetical air ingress; (b) effects on the fuel particles induced by fast transients. The problems of the various tasks are defined in detail and the main results obtained are explained. The contributions reporting the various project tasks and activities have been prepared for separate retrieval from the database. (orig./HP) [de

  18. Air quality assessment of low emission zones in Copenhagen. [Denmark]; Luftkvalitetsvurdering af ren-luftzone i Koebenhavn

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Solvang Jensen, S.; Ketzel, M.; Brandt, J.; Winther, M.; Ellermann, T.

    2012-09-15

    According to the government agreement from 2011 improved low emission zones have been identified as a measure to improve the air quality in greater Danish cities, and to ensure compliance with air quality limit values for NO{sub 2} of 40 {mu}g/m{sup 3} as an annual mean. The limit value is violated at H.C. Andersens Boulevard in Copenhagen which is one of the busiest urban streets in Denmark and a fixed air quality monitor station is also located in the street. Air quality model calculations also shows that some other busy streets in Copenhagen violate the annual air quality limit values for NO{sub 2}. The objective of the project is to assess the impacts of a number of improved low emission zone measures in Copenhagen regarding emissions and air quality with focus on NO{sub 2}. The impact assessment of different scenarios includes assessment of emissions and air quality. The assessment is carried out in great details for NO{sub 2} and to a lesser degree for PM exhaust, PM{sub 2.5} and PM{sub 10}. Since air quality assessment is resource demanding only the main scenarios are carried out with the full air quality model whereas the air quality of the scenario variants are assessed based on regression analysis between emissions and air quality in scenarios calculated with the full air quality model. (LN)

  19. Global Air Quality and Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fiore, Arlene M.; Naik, Vaishali; Steiner, Allison; Unger, Nadine; Bergmann, Dan; Prather, Michael; Righi, Mattia; Rumbold, Steven T.; Shindell, Drew T.; Skeie, Ragnhild B.; hide

    2012-01-01

    Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative

  20. OECD MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength Tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-3 test data report: thermal Hydraulic results, Rev. 0 February 19, 2003

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the third water ingression test, designated SSWICS-3. This test investigated the quenching behavior of a fully oxidized PWR

  1. Dynamic in vivo mapping of model moisturiser ingress into human skin by GARfield MRI.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampi, Elisabetta; van Ginkel, Michael; McDonald, Peter J; Pitts, Simon; Bonnist, Eleanor Y M; Singleton, Scott; Williamson, Ann-Marie

    2011-02-01

    We describe the development of in vivo one-dimensional MRI (profiling) using a GARField (Gradient At Right angles to Field) magnet for the characterisation of side-of-hand human skin. For the first time and in vivo, we report measurements of the NMR longitudinal and transverse relaxation parameters and self-diffusivity of the upper layers of human skin with a nominal spatial resolution better than 10 µm. The results are correlated with in vivo confocal Raman spectroscopy measurements of water concentration and natural moisturiser factors, and discussed in terms of known skin biology and microstructure of the stratum corneum and viable epidermis. The application of model moisturiser solutions to the skin is followed and their dynamics of ingress are characterised using the MRI methodology developed. Selected hydrophilic and lipophilic formulations are studied. The results are corroborated by standard in vivo measurements of transepidermal water loss and hydration status. A further insight into moisturisation mechanisms is gained. The effect of two different penetration enhancers on a commonly used skin care oil is also discussed, and different timescales of oil penetration into the skin are reported depending on the type of enhancer. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. An integrated assessment of regional air pollution and climate change in Europe: findings of the AIR-CLIM project

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alcamo, J.; Mayerhofer, P.; Guardans, R.; Harmelen, T. van; Minnen, J. van; Onigkeit, J.; Posch, M.; Vries, B. de

    2002-01-01

    This paper presents results of an assessment of the linkages between regional air pollution and climate change in Europe (the AIR-CLIM Project). The main research tool was an integrated modeling framework and the main product was a consistent set of long-term scenarios covering Europe between 1995

  3. Modelling the role of nitrogen in acidification of Swedish lakes: future scenarios of acid deposition, climate change and forestry practices

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Moldan, Filip (Swedish Environmental Research Institute Ltd., Stockholm (Sweden)); Cosby, B. Jack (Dept. of Env. Sciences, Univ. of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA (United States)); Wright, Richard F. (Norwegian Inst. for Water Research, Kjelsas, Oslo (Norway))

    2009-12-15

    There are three major drivers that can cause future changes in lake water chemistry: air pollution, land use and climate change. In this report we used an extensive set of Swedish lakes sampled in 1995, 2000 and in 2005 to model future lake water chemistry under 5 different scenarios. The base case scenario represented deposition of air pollutants under current legislation (CLE); that is assuming that emissions of sulphur (S) and nitrogen (N) will be reduced as currently agreed by the Gothenburg protocol, NEC directive and other legislation. After the agreed emission reductions were achieved, no further reduction in deposition was assumed and deposition was maintained constant up to year 2100. The base scenario assumed no change in current forestry practices and no climate change. A second other deposition scenario was based on maximum (technically) feasible emission reduction (MFR). The MFR scenario also did not assume change of either forestry practices or climate. A maximum biomass harvest was modelled (land use, LU, scenario), which entailed harvest of tree stems, slash and stumps. A scenario of climate change (CC) followed the IPCC A2 scenario downscaled to Sweden by SMHI. Finally climate change and land use were combined (CCLU scenario). The CC, LU and CCLU scenarios were driven by the 'current legislation' (CLE) deposition scenario for S and N deposition. The biogeochemical model MAGIC was used in this project, and scenarios were evaluated up to year 2100. Special attention was paid to the impact of the future scenarios on N leaching

  4. The energy consumption of traffic 1990 - 2035 - Results of scenarios I - IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, M.

    2007-01-01

    This comprehensive report for the Swiss Federal Office of Energy (SFOE) presents four scenarios concerning the development of energy consumption in the traffic sector for the period 1990 - 2035. The four scenarios - status quo, increased co-operation between the state and the economy with various energy levies, global reduction of energy consumption and, finally, scenario IV 'on the way to a 2000-Watt Society' - are briefly described. The areas examined include road, rail and air traffic as well as 'off-road' traffic. Infrastructure developments are commented on. The four scenarios are examined for various sensitivities including high gross domestic product GDP, high prices and warmer climate. Alternative fuels are looked at, as are further factors such as fuel tourism, pollutant emissions and costs. The results of the sensitivity analyses are compared and discussed and the necessary instruments are examined. This comprehensive report is completed with a comprehensive appendix

  5. Local and regional low carbon scenarios methodology, challenges and opportunities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2010-01-01

    In its first part, this report discusses the emergence of local climate and energy policy in Europe, the implementation of nationally imposed but regionally anchored energy scenarios (i.e. in France, the Climate Air Energy Regional Schemes or SRCAE). Then it addresses the methodological and political aspects of local and regional low emission scenarios: methodologies and typologies of energy scenarios, ways to define an appropriate emission reduction and energy consumption objective, ways to deal with emission or carbon gaps, ways to make local emission inventories, ways to gather local data, ways to deal with special emission sources, ways to assess and develop local energy efficiency and renewable energy potentials, ways to take energy sufficiency into account, and the evolution from energy autonomy to 100% renewable energy territories. The last part addresses the issues of stake holder and citizen participation in the definition of long term strategies

  6. Fundamental study of a water jet injected into a vacuum vessel of fusion reactor under the ingress of coolant event

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takase, Kazuyuki; Kunugi, Tomoaki; Seki, Yasushi; Kurihara, Ryouichi; Ueda, Shuzou

    1996-01-01

    As one of some transient sequences for the thermofluid safety in ITER, pressure rise and boiling heat transfer characteristics in a Tokamak vacuum vessel during an ingress of coolant event (ICE) are being investigated experimentally by using the preliminary ICE apparatus. The pressure rise rates in the vacuum vessel and the wall temperature distributions on the target plate were measured quantitatively and clarified at first. In addition, a two-phase flow under the ICE conditions was analyzed numerically for predicting the experimental results using one-dimensional transport equations and the drift-flux model. The experimental results were compared with the numerical results. It was found that the pressurization behavior during the ICE conditions could be estimated qualitatively by the present numerical analyses. 5 refs., 5 figs

  7. Biomass Scenario Model Scenario Library: Definitions, Construction, and Description

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inman, D.; Vimmerstedt, L.; Bush, B.; Peterson, S.

    2014-04-01

    Understanding the development of the biofuels industry in the United States is important to policymakers and industry. The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a system dynamics model of the biomass-to-biofuels system that can be used to explore policy effects on biofuels development. Because of the complexity of the model, as well as the wide range of possible future conditions that affect biofuels industry development, we have not developed a single reference case but instead developed a set of specific scenarios that provide various contexts for our analyses. The purpose of this report is to describe the scenarios that comprise the BSM scenario library. At present, we have the following policy-focused scenarios in our library: minimal policies, ethanol-focused policies, equal access to policies, output-focused policies, technological diversity focused, and the point-of-production- focused. This report describes each scenario, its policy settings, and general insights gained through use of the scenarios in analytic studies.

  8. Low carbon scenarios for transport in India: Co-benefits analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dhar, Subash; Shukla, Priyadarshi R.

    2015-01-01

    Dependence on oil for transport is a concern for India's policymakers on three counts – energy security, local environment and climate change. Rapid urbanisation and accompanying motorisation has created some of the most polluting cities in India and rising demand for oil is leading to higher imports, besides causing more CO 2 emissions. The government of India wants to achieve the climate goals through a sustainability approach that simultaneously addresses other environment and developmental challenges. This paper analyses a sustainable low carbon transport (SLCT) scenario based on sustainable strategies for passenger and freight mobility, vehicle technologies and fuel using global CO 2 prices that correspond to 2 °C global stabilisation target. The scenarios span from years 2010 to 2050 and are analysed using the energy system model-ANSWER MARKAL. The SLCT scenario has improved energy security (cumulative oil demand lower by 3100 Mtoe), improved air quality (PM 2.5 emissions never exceed the existing levels) and the cumulative CO 2 emissions are lower by 13 billion t CO 2 thereby showing that achieving development objectives with CO 2 co-benefits is feasible. -- Highlights: •India's BAU transitions pose challenges for energy security and climate change. •Sustainable transport policies deliver benefits for air quality and energy security. •Sustainable transport policies fall short of mitigation needed for 2 °C stabilisation. •Transport sector becomes increasingly dependent on electricity. •Low carbon policies are essential to clean transport and electricity generation

  9. Hydropower Production in Future Climate Scenarios; the Case for the Zambezi River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Byman H. Hamududu

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Climate change remains a threat to water resources projects in southern Africa where impacts resulting from changes in climate are projected to be negative and worse than in most other regions of the world. This work presents an assessment of the impacts of climate change on water resources and hydropower production potential in the Zambezi River Basin. Future climate scenarios projected through the five General Circulation Model (GCM outputs are used as input in the impact assessment. The future projected climate scenarios are downscaled to find local and regional changes, and used in the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV hydrological model to assess climate change impacts on water resources in the river basin. According to the simulations, air temperature and potential evaporation are projected to increase, while rainfall is projected to decrease. The Zambezi hydropower system is likely to be affected negatively as a result of future climate changes. Increasing air temperature leading to increased evaporation, and reduced rainfall, both contribute to a decrease in resulting river flows and increased reservoir evaporation. Consequently, the decrease in water resources will lead to decreased hydropower production potential, by 9% in 2020s, 18% in 2050s and 28% in 2080s in the hydropower system, for a medium emission scenario, A1B.

  10. Climatic trends in Estonia during the period of instrumental observations and climate scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jaagus, J.

    1996-01-01

    Weather conditions in Estonia are quite variable. Long-term periodical fluctuations have been observed in meteorological values. At the same time, the climate change during the last 100-150 years is marked. As a general tendency, the climate has become more maritime. Air pressure is characterized by an increasing trend in spring and summer, and by a decreasing trend in autumn and winter. Mean air temperature has increased, particularly over the colder half of the year. Precipitation area totals have risen, most of all in autumn and winter. Snow cover duration has decreased significantly. General circulation model-based climate change scenarios expect a general increase in air temperature in Estonia with warming in winter more significant than that in summer. Moreover, they indicate an increase in precipitation, but the results of the individual models are quite variable. The transient scenario shows that the main increase in precipitation will not occur during next decades, but only at the end of the transient period, around 2070. It can be stated that observed tendencies of climate change in Estonia concur with expected changes caused by global warming. According to the long-term fluctuations of meteorological values in Estonia, changes different from general trends can take place during the next decade. An increase in mean air pressure, sunshine duration and snow cover duration, as well as a decrease in mean air temperature and precipitation is expected in the following years

  11. Energy and Greenhouse Gas Emission Assessment of Conventional and Solar Assisted Air Conditioning Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaofeng Li

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Energy consumption in the buildings is responsible for 26% of Australia’s greenhouse gas emissions where cooling typically accounts for over 50% of the total building energy use. The aim of this study was to investigate the potential for reducing the cooling systems’ environmental footprint with applications of alternative renewable energy source. Three types of cooling systems, water cooled, air cooled and a hybrid solar-based air-conditioning system, with a total of six scenarios were designed in this work. The scenarios accounted for the types of power supply to the air-conditioning systems with electricity from the grid and with a solar power from highly integrated building photovoltaics (BIPV. Within and between these scenarios, systems’ energy performances were compared based on energy modelling while the harvesting potential of the renewable energy source was further predicted based on building’s detailed geometrical model. The results showed that renewable energy obtained via BIPV scenario could cover building’s annual electricity consumption for cooling and reduce 140 tonnes of greenhouse gas emissions each year. The hybrid solar air-conditioning system has higher energy efficiency than the air cooled chiller system but lower than the water cooled system.

  12. Scenario planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Enzmann, Dieter R; Beauchamp, Norman J; Norbash, Alexander

    2011-03-01

    In facing future developments in health care, scenario planning offers a complementary approach to traditional strategic planning. Whereas traditional strategic planning typically consists of predicting the future at a single point on a chosen time horizon and mapping the preferred plans to address such a future, scenario planning creates stories about multiple likely potential futures on a given time horizon and maps the preferred plans to address the multiple described potential futures. Each scenario is purposefully different and specifically not a consensus worst-case, average, or best-case forecast; nor is scenario planning a process in probabilistic prediction. Scenario planning focuses on high-impact, uncertain driving forces that in the authors' example affect the field of radiology. Uncertainty is the key concept as these forces are mapped onto axes of uncertainty, the poles of which have opposed effects on radiology. One chosen axis was "market focus," with poles of centralized health care (government control) vs a decentralized private market. Another axis was "radiology's business model," with one pole being a unified, single specialty vs a splintered, disaggregated subspecialty. The third axis was "technology and science," with one pole representing technology enabling to radiology vs technology threatening to radiology. Selected poles of these axes were then combined to create 3 scenarios. One scenario, termed "entrepreneurialism," consisted of a decentralized private market, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. A second scenario, termed "socialized medicine," had a centralized market focus, a unified specialty business model, and enabling technology and science. A third scenario, termed "freefall," had a centralized market focus, a disaggregated business model, and threatening technology and science. These scenarios provide a range of futures that ultimately allow the identification of defined "signposts" that can

  13. Exploring the applicability of future air quality predictions based on synoptic system forecasts

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yuval; Broday, David M.; Alpert, Pinhas

    2012-01-01

    For a given emissions inventory, the general levels of air pollutants and the spatial distribution of their concentrations are determined by the physiochemical state of the atmosphere. Apart from the trivial seasonal and daily cycles, most of the variability is associated with the atmospheric synoptic scale. A simple methodology for assessing future levels of air pollutants' concentrations based on synoptic forecasts is presented. At short time scales the methodology is comparable and slightly better than persistence and seasonal forecasts at categorical classification of pollution levels. It's utility is shown for air quality studies at the long time scale of a changing climate scenario, where seasonality and persistence cannot be used. It is demonstrated that the air quality variability due to changes in the pollution emissions can be expected to be much larger than that associated with the effects of climatic changes. - Highlights: ► A method for short and long term air quality forecasts is introduced. ► The method is based on prediction of synoptic systems. ► The method beats simple benchmarks in short term forecasts. ► Assessment of future air pollution in a changing climate scenario is demonstrated. - Air quality in a changing climate scenario can be studied using air pollution predictions based on synoptic system forecasts.

  14. Autonomous urban reconnaissance ingress system (AURIS): providing a tactically relevant autonomous door-opening kit for unmanned ground vehicles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shane, David J.; Rufo, Michael A.; Berkemeier, Matthew D.; Alberts, Joel A.

    2012-06-01

    The Autonomous Urban Reconnaissance Ingress System (AURIS™) addresses a significant limitation of current military and first responder robotics technology: the inability of reconnaissance robots to open doors. Leveraging user testing as a baseline, the program has derived specifications necessary for military personnel to open doors with fielded UGVs (Unmanned Ground Vehicles), and evaluates the technology's impact on operational mission areas: duration, timing, and user patience in developing a tactically relevant, safe, and effective system. Funding is provided through the US ARMY Tank Automotive Research, Development and Engineering Center (TARDEC) and the project represents a leap forward in perception, autonomy, robotic implements, and coordinated payload operation in UGVs. This paper describes high level details of specification generation, status of the last phase of development, an advanced view of the system autonomy capability, and a short look ahead towards the ongoing work on this compelling and important technology.

  15. ‹Portale›, die zum Nachdenken anregen. Einblicke in eine Interfaceanalyse des Augmented Reality Spiels Ingress

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franco Rau

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Augmented Reality Spiele wie ‹Ingress› und ‹PokémonGo› stellen aktuell neue mediale Phänomene dar. Eine zentrale Differenz zu klassischen Massively Multiplayer Online Games (MMOs ist die Verzahnung von virtuellen und realen Objekten als konstitutive Spielelemente. In Anknüpfung an die Perspektive, digitale Spiele als Kultur- und Bildungsräume zu verstehen, widmet sich der Beitrag der Frage, inwiefern das Ingress-Spielen die Perspektive von Spieler/innen auf den öffentlichen Raum verändern kann. In erster Annäherung an diese Fragestellung wird auf Basis einer Interfaceanalyse gezeigt, wie ‹Portale› – virtueller Repräsentationen realer Objekte im Spiel – potenziell Irritationen und Differenz­erfahrungen ermöglichen. Diese können zum Ausgangspunkt weiterführender Reflexionen werden. Dafür werden exemplarisch ‹Portale› diskutiert, die (1. weiterführende Informationen zu realen Objekte bieten, die (2. Momentaufnahmen nicht mehr existierender kultureller Objekte darstellen und die (3. reale Objekte in ironischer Weise präsentieren.

  16. Projections of precipitation, air temperature and potential ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    mabouelhaggag

    Precipitation and air temperature records from 6 sites in Rwanda in the period from 1964 to 2010 are used for past/present climate assessment. Future climate projections (2010-2099) based on 3 general circulation models and 2 emission scenarios (A2 and B1) are used for climate projections. Precipitation, air temperature ...

  17. Securing energy efficiency as a high priority. Scenarios for common appliance electricity consumption in Thailand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Foran, T. [Unit for Social and Environmental Research USER, Faculty of Social Sciences, Chiang Mai University, P.O. Box 144, Chiang Mai, 50200 (Thailand); Du Pont, P.T. [International Resources Group and Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, Bangkok (Thailand); Parinya, P. [The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut' s University of Technology Thonburi, Bangkok (Thailand); Phumaraphand, N. [Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Nonthaburi (Thailand)

    2010-11-15

    Between 1995 and 2008, Thailand's energy efficiency programs produced an estimated total of 8,369 GWh/year energy savings and 1,471 MW avoided peak power. Despite these impressive saving figures, relatively little future scenario analysis is available to policy makers. Before the 2008 global financial crisis, electricity planners forecasted 5-6% long-term increases in demand. We explored options for efficiency improvements in Thailand's residential sector, which consumes more than 20% of Thailand's total electricity consumption of 150 TWh/year. We constructed baseline and efficient scenarios for the period 2006-2026, for air conditioners, refrigerators, fans, rice cookers, and compact fluorescent light bulbs. We drew on an appliance database maintained by Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand's voluntary labeling program. For the five appliances modeled, the efficiency scenario results in total savings of 12% of baseline consumption after 10 years and 29% of baseline after 20 years. Approximately 80% of savings come from more stringent standards for air conditioners, including phasing out unregulated air conditioner sales within 6 years. Shifting appliance efficiency standards to current best-in-market levels within 6 years produces additional savings. We discuss institutional aspects of energy planning in Thailand that thus far have limited the consideration of energy efficiency as a high-priority resource.

  18. OECD MMCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength tests (SSWICS) SSWICS-1 final data report, Rev. 1 February 10, 2003.; Report, Rev. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lomperski, S.; Farmer, M.T.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure; and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are being conducted to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The two apparatuses used to measure the melt quench rate and crust strength are jointly referred to as SSWICS (Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength). This report describes results of the first water ingression test, designated SSWICS-1. The test investigated the quench behavior of a 15 cm deep, fully

  19. Low carbon society scenario analysis of transport sector of an emerging economy—The AIM/Enduse modelling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Selvakkumaran, Sujeetha; Limmeechokchai, Bundit

    2015-01-01

    The transport sector of a country is the backbone driving the economy forward. Thailand’s land transport sector is modelled using the AIM/Enduse, which is a recursive dynamic optimization model, based on bottom-up modelling principle. The travel demand is divided into two major categories which are passenger travel and freight travel. The objective of this paper is to analyse the mitigation possible through low carbon society (LCS) measures and emission tax (ET). Two scenario clusters are devised along with the BAU case. The LCS scenario cluster has three designed scenarios which are LCS-L, LCS-M and LCS-H. The emission tax (ET) cluster has four scenarios, where the taxes of 50, 100, 200 and 500 USD/t-CO 2 are implemented. Along with this the marginal abatement costs (MAC) of the counter-measures (CMs) and the co-benefits in terms of energy security, productivity and air pollutant mitigation are also assessed. Results show that LCS scenarios are possible of mitigating up to 1230 Mt-CO 2 cumulatively, from 2010 to 2050. In terms of MACs, new vehicles play a pivotal role, along with hybrid vehicles. The Average Abatement Cost (AAC) assessment shows that the AAC of LCS-H scenario is in the order of 100 USD/t-CO 2 . All the LCS and ET scenarios show an enhancement in energy security and also a threefold increase in productivity. There is distinct mitigation in terms of air pollutants from the transport sector as well. -- Highlights: •Thailand transport sector has been modelled using AIM/Enduse model. •Potential cumulative mitigation of CO 2 during 2010–2050 is approximately 30% when compared the BAU scenario. •Abatement cost curves show that various counter measures are practical in the transport sector. •Energy security is enhanced due to CO 2 mitigation in the LCS scenario

  20. Analysis on ingress of coolant event in vacuum vessel using modified TRAC-BF1 code

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ajima, Toshio; Kurihara, Ryoichi; Seki, Yasushi

    1999-08-01

    The Transient Reactor Analysis Code (TRAC-BF1) was modified on the basis of ICE experimental results so as to analyze the Ingress of Coolant Event (ICE) in the vacuum vessel of a nuclear fusion reactor. In the previous report, the TRAC-BF1 code, which was originally developed for the safety analysis of a light water reactor, had been modified for the ICE of the fusion reactor. And the addition of the flat structural plate model to the VESSEL component and arbitrary appointment of the gravity direction had been added in the TRAC-BF1 code. This TRAC-BF1 code was further modified. The flat structural plate model of the VESSEL component was enabled to divide in multi layers having different materials, and a part of the multi layers could take a buried heater into consideration. Moreover, the TRAC-BF1 code was modified to analyze under the low-pressure condition close to vacuum within range of the steam table. This paper describes additional functions of the modified TRAC-BF1 code, analytical evaluation using ICE experimental data and the ITER model with final design report (FDR) data. (author)

  1. Ozone concentrations and damage for realistic future European climate and air quality scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hendriks, C.; Forsell, N.; Kiesewetter, G.; Schaap, M.; Schöpp, W.

    2016-01-01

    Ground level ozone poses a significant threat to human health from air pollution in the European Union. While anthropogenic emissions of precursor substances (NOx, NMVOC, CH4) are regulated by EU air quality legislation and will decrease further in the future, the emissions of biogenic NMVOC (mainly

  2. Evaluation of co-benefits from combined climate change and air pollution reduction strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leitao, Joana; Van Dingenen, Rita; Dentener, Frank; Rao, Shilpa

    2014-05-01

    The connection of climate change and air pollution is becoming more relevant in the process of policy making and implementation of emission control strategies because of resulting co-benefits and trade-offs. Some sectors, such as fossil fuel combustion, are sources of both pollutants (NOx and PM) as well as greenhouse gas (CO2). Additionally, the use of wood burning as biofuel to reduce climate impact may in fact deteriorate air quality. Furthermore, several air pollutants are important radiative forcers and regulating their emissions impacts on climate. It is evident that both problems need to be undertaken with a common strategy and the existence of cross-policy with co-benefits may encourage their implementation. The LIMITS FP7 project (http://www.feem-project.net/limits/index.html) was designed with the main goal of assessing strategies for reduction of GHG emissions so that the 2°C target can be achieved. The work developed focus on the evaluation of the implementation of strategies analysing several aspects of different scenarios, namely: the feasibility of low carbon scenarios in terms of available technologies and infrastructure, the required financial mechanisms, and also the co-benefits regarding energy security, economic development and air pollution. For the latter, five integrated assessment models (IAMs) provided greenhouse gases and pollutant emission values for several scenarios. These were based on air pollution scenarios defined according to stringency and implementation of future global legislation. They which were also combined with 2 climate policy scenarios (no climate policy and 2.8 W/m2 target). The former are mostly focused on non-climate policies and technical control measures for emissions of air pollutants, such as PM2.5, NOx and SO2, with their emission factors harmonized between the IAMs. With the global air quality source-receptor model TM5-FASST the impact of the resulting emissions was analysed and the co-benefits of combined

  3. Scenario-based analyses of energy system development and its environmental implications in Thailand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shrestha, Ram M.; Malla, Sunil; Liyanage, Migara H.

    2007-01-01

    Thailand is one of the fastest growing energy-intensive economies in Southeast Asia. To formulate sound energy policies in the country, it is important to understand the impact of energy use on the environment over the long-period. This study examines energy system development and its associated greenhouse gas and local air pollutant emissions under four scenarios in Thailand through the year 2050. The four scenarios involve different growth paths for economy, population, energy efficiency and penetration of renewable energy technologies. The paper assesses the changes in primary energy supply mix, sector-wise final energy demand, energy import dependency and CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x emissions under four scenarios using end-use based Asia-Pacific Integrated Assessment Model (AIM/Enduse) of Thailand. (author)

  4. Attributes Of Quality Scenarios/Scenario Sets Used In Software Requirements Elicitation

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Braun, Kimberly

    1997-01-01

    .... This thesis examines scenarios used in software requirements elicitation. Many different definitions, formats, and ideas exist on scenarios, but no thorough work has been done on what makes a good, quality scenario and scenario set...

  5. Selecting Days for Concept and Technology Evaluation in SMART-NAS Test-Bed Scenario Generation, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Crown Consulting, Inc. will investigate and demonstrate methods to enable rapid selection of days for scenario generation in the development and evaluation of Air...

  6. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K; Joergensen, Kaj [Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK); Werling, J; OErsted Pedersen, H; Kofoed-Wiuff, A [Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK)

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas emissions

  7. Continuum-based DFN-consistent simulations of oxygen ingress in fractured crystalline rocks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trinchero, P.; Puigdomenech, I.; Molinero, J.; Ebrahimi, H.; Gylling, B.; Svensson, U.; Bosbach, D.; Deissmann, G.

    2016-12-01

    The potential transient infiltration of oxygenated glacial meltwater into initially anoxic and reducing fractured crystalline rocks during glaciation events is an issue of concern for some of the prospected deep geological repositories for spent nuclear fuel. Here, this problem is assessed using reactive transport calculations. First, a novel parameterisation procedure is presented, where flow, transport and geochemical parameters (i.e. hydraulic conductivity, effective/kinetic porosity, and mineral specific surface and abundance) are defined on a finite volume numerical grid based on the (spatially varying) properties of an underlying Discrete Fracture Network (DFN). Second, using this approach, a realistic reactive transport model of Forsmark, i.e. the selected site for the proposed Swedish spent nuclear fuel repository, is implemented. The model consists of more than 70 million geochemical transport degrees of freedom and simulates the ingress of oxygen-rich water from the recharge area of the domain and its depletion due to reactions with the Fe(II) mineral chlorite. Third, the calculations are solved in the supercomputer JUQUEEN of the Jülich Supercomputing Centre. The results of the simulations show that oxygen infiltrates relatively quickly along fractures and deformation zones until a steady state profile is reached, where geochemical reactions counterbalance advective transport processes. Interestingly, most of the iron-bearing minerals are consumed in the highly conductive zones, where larger mineral surfaces are available for reactions. An analysis based on mineral mass balance shows that the considered rock medium has enough capacity to buffer oxygen infiltration for a long period of time (i.e. some thousand years).

  8. Health and air quality 2005 : phase 2 : valuation of health impacts from air quality in the Lower Fraser Valley airshed

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Furberg, M.; Preston, K. [RWDI West Inc., Vancouver, BC (Canada); Sawyer, D. [Marbek Resource Consultants Ltd., Ottawa, ON (Canada); Brauer, M. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). School of Occupational and Environmental Hygiene; Hanvelt, R. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Health Care and Epidemiology

    2005-07-15

    This study provided estimates the health benefits and costs associated with specified changes in ambient air concentrations of particulate matter (PM) and ozone in the Lower Fraser Valley (LFV). Estimates were developed on a regional level. The study focused on PM and ozone, as current air quality monitoring data and scientific findings have indicated that these are the air contaminants of greatest concern in the region. Known air quality health outcome relationships were applied in a spreadsheet model to predict changes in health outcomes associated with 6 ambient air quality scenarios for 3 sub-regions within the LFV airshed. Concentration response functions based on epidemiological studies were used to estimate the number of health events associated with changes in air quality. For each scenario, the model calculated the expected number of the following health outcomes: mortality; chronic bronchitis; respiratory hospital admissions; cardiac hospital admissions; emergency room visits; child acute bronchitis; restricted activity days; asthma symptom days; minor restricted activity days and acute respiratory symptom days. The model also produced the dollar value of the health outcomes. A dollar metric was used so that the health outcomes could be aggregated and compared with other air quality management actions such the costs of improving ambient air quality. Results indicated that improving ambient air quality in the LFV will produce valued and socially desirable benefits, including reduced mortality and morbidity. The measures contemplated by decision-makers to maintain and improve air quality in the LFV will trigger benefits that are likely to be significant. 101 refs., 7 tabs., 7 figs.

  9. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) for CMIP6

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Neill, Brian C.; Tebaldi, Claudia; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; Eyring, Veronika; Friedlingstein, Pierre; Hurtt, George; Knutti, Reto; Kriegler, Elmar; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Lowe, Jason; Meehl, Gerald A.; Moss, Richard; Riahi, Keywan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.

    2016-01-01

    Projections of future climate change play a fundamental role in improving understanding of the climate system as well as characterizing societal risks and response options. The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) is the primary activity within Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) that will provide multi-model climate projections based on alternative scenarios of future emissions and land use changes produced with integrated assessment models. In this paper, we describe ScenarioMIP's objectives, experimental design, and its relation to other activities within CMIP6. The ScenarioMIP design is one component of a larger scenario process that aims to facilitate a wide range of integrated studies across the climate science, integrated assessment modeling, and impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability communities, and will form an important part of the evidence base in the forthcoming Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessments. At the same time, it will provide the basis for investigating a number of targeted science and policy questions that are especially relevant to scenario-based analysis, including the role of specific forcings such as land use and aerosols, the effect of a peak and decline in forcing, the consequences of scenarios that limit warming to below 2 °C, the relative contributions to uncertainty from scenarios, climate models, and internal variability, and long-term climate system outcomes beyond the 21st century. To serve this wide range of scientific communities and address these questions, a design has been identified consisting of eight alternative 21st century scenarios plus one large initial condition ensemble and a set of long-term extensions, divided into two tiers defined by relative priority. Some of these scenarios will also provide a basis for variants planned to be run in other CMIP6-Endorsed MIPs to investigate questions related to specific forcings. Harmonized, spatially

  10. Competing Air Quality and Water Conservation Co-benefits from Power Sector Decarbonization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peng, W.; Wagner, F.; Mauzerall, D. L.; Ramana, M. V.; Zhai, H.; Small, M.; Zhang, X.; Dalin, C.

    2016-12-01

    Decarbonizing the power sector can reduce fossil-based generation and associated air pollution and water use. However, power sector configurations that prioritize air quality benefits can be different from those that maximize water conservation benefits. Despite extensive work to optimize the generation mix under an air pollution or water constraint, little research has examined electricity transmission networks and the choice of which fossil fuel units to displace in order to achieve both environmental objectives simultaneously. When air pollution and water stress occur in different regions, the optimal transmission and displacement decisions still depend on priorities placed on air quality and water conservation benefits even if low-carbon generation planning is fixed. Here we use China as a test case, and develop a new optimization framework to study transmission and displacement decisions and the resulting air quality and water use impacts for six power sector decarbonization scenarios in 2030 ( 50% of national generation is low carbon). We fix low-carbon generation in each scenario (e.g. type, location, quantity) and vary technology choices and deployment patterns across scenarios. The objective is to minimize the total physical costs (transmission costs and coal power generation costs) and the estimated environmental costs. Environmental costs are estimated by multiplying effective air pollutant emissions (EMeff, emissions weighted by population density) and effective water use (Weff, water use weighted by a local water stress index) by their unit economic values, Vem and Vw. We are hence able to examine the effect of varying policy priorities by imposing different combinations of Vem and Vw. In all six scenarios, we find that increasing the priority on air quality co-benefits (higher Vem) reduces air pollution impacts (lower EMeff) at the expense of lower water conservation (higher Weff); and vice versa. Such results can largely be explained by differences

  11. Determining air quality and greenhouse gas impacts of hydrogen infrastructure and fuel cell vehicles.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephens-Romero, Shane; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Brouwer, Jacob; Dabdub, Donald; Samuelsen, Scott

    2009-12-01

    Adoption of hydrogen infrastructure and hydrogen fuel cell vehicles (HFCVs) to replace gasoline internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles has been proposed as a strategy to reduce criteria pollutant and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the transportation sector and transition to fuel independence. However, it is uncertain (1) to what degree the reduction in criteria pollutants will impact urban air quality, and (2) how the reductions in pollutant emissions and concomitant urban air quality impacts compare to ultralow emission gasoline-powered vehicles projected for a future year (e.g., 2060). To address these questions, the present study introduces a "spatially and temporally resolved energy and environment tool" (STREET) to characterize the pollutant and GHG emissions associated with a comprehensive hydrogen supply infrastructure and HFCVs at a high level of geographic and temporal resolution. To demonstrate the utility of STREET, two spatially and temporally resolved scenarios for hydrogen infrastructure are evaluated in a prototypical urban airshed (the South Coast Air Basin of California) using geographic information systems (GIS) data. The well-to-wheels (WTW) GHG emissions are quantified and the air quality is established using a detailed atmospheric chemistry and transport model followed by a comparison to a future gasoline scenario comprised of advanced ICE vehicles. One hydrogen scenario includes more renewable primary energy sources for hydrogen generation and the other includes more fossil fuel sources. The two scenarios encompass a variety of hydrogen generation, distribution, and fueling strategies. GHG emissions reductions range from 61 to 68% for both hydrogen scenarios in parallel with substantial improvements in urban air quality (e.g., reductions of 10 ppb in peak 8-h-averaged ozone and 6 mug/m(3) in 24-h-averaged particulate matter concentrations, particularly in regions of the airshed where concentrations are highest for the gasoline scenario).

  12. Making use of scenarios : supporting scenario use in product design

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene

    2010-01-01

    The discipline of Scenario-Based Product Design (SBPD) guides the use of scenarios in a product design process. As concrete narratives, scenarios could facilitate making explicit how users would use the designed product in their activities, allowing usability studies to be an integrated part of the

  13. OECD MCCI Small-Scale Water Ingression and Crust Strength tests (SSWICS) design report, Rev. 2 October 31, 2002

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farmer, M.; Lomperski, S.; Kilsdonk, D.; Aeschlimann, B.; Pfeiffer, P.

    2011-01-01

    The Melt Attack and Coolability Experiments (MACE) program at Argonne National Laboratory addressed the issue of the ability of water to cool and thermally stabilize a molten core/concrete interaction (MCCI) when the reactants are flooded from above. These tests provided data regarding the nature of corium interactions with concrete, the heat transfer rates from the melt to the overlying water pool, and the role of noncondensable gases in the mixing processes that contribute to melt quenching. However, due to the integral nature of these tests, several questions regarding the crust freezing behavior could not be adequately resolved. These questions include: (1) To what extent does water ingression into the crust increase the melt quench rate above the conduction-limited rate and how is this affected by melt composition and system pressure and (2) What is the fracture strength of the corium crust when subjected to a thermal-mechanical load and how does it depend upon the melt composition? A series of separate-effects experiments are planned to address these issues. The first employs an apparatus designed to measure the quench rate of a pool of corium (∼φ30 cm; up to 20 cm deep). The main parameter to be varied in these quench tests is the melt composition since it is thought to have a critical influence on the crust cracking behavior which, in turn, alters quench rate. A description of the test apparatus, instrumentation, data reduction, and test matrix are the subject of the first portion of this report. The issue of crust strength will be addressed with a second apparatus designed to mechanically load the crust produced by the quench tests. This apparatus will measure the fracture strength of the crust while under a thermal load created by a heating element beneath the crust. The introduction of a thermal gradient across the crust is thought to be important for these tests because of uncertainty in the magnitude of the thermal stresses and thus their relative

  14. Dying scenarios improve recall as much as survival scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Daniel J; Hart, Joshua; Kramer, Melanie E

    2014-01-01

    Merely contemplating one's death improves retention for entirely unrelated material learned subsequently. This "dying to remember" effect seems conceptually related to the survival processing effect, whereby processing items for their relevance to being stranded in the grasslands leads to recall superior to that of other deep processing control conditions. The present experiments directly compared survival processing scenarios with "death processing" scenarios. Results showed that when the survival and dying scenarios are closely matched on key dimensions, and possible congruency effects are controlled, the dying and survival scenarios produced equivalently high recall levels. We conclude that the available evidence (cf. Bell, Roer, & Buchner, 2013; Klein, 2012), while not definitive, is consistent with the possibility of overlapping mechanisms.

  15. Estimation of incremental reactivities for multiple day scenarios: an application to ethane and dimethyoxymethane

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockwell, William R.; Geiger, Harald; Becker, Karl H.

    Single-day scenarios are used to calculate incremental reactivities by definition (Carter, J. Air Waste Management Assoc. 44 (1994) 881-899.) but even unreactive organic compounds may have a non-negligible effect on ozone concentrations if multiple-day scenarios are considered. The concentration of unreactive compounds and their products may build up over a multiple-day period and the oxidation products may be highly reactive or highly unreactive affecting the overall incremental reactivity of the organic compound. We have developed a method for calculating incremental reactivities for multiple days based on a standard scenario for polluted European conditions. This method was used to estimate maximum incremental reactivities (MIR) and maximum ozone incremental reactivities (MOIR) for ethane and dimethyoxymethane for scenarios ranging from 1 to 6 days. It was found that the incremental reactivities increased as the length of the simulation period increased. The MIR of ethane increased faster than the value for dimethyoxymethane as the scenarios became longer. The MOIRs of ethane and dimethyoxymethane increased but the change was more modest for scenarios longer than 3 days. MOIRs of both volatile organic compounds were equal within the uncertainties of their chemical mechanisms by the 5 day scenario. These results show that dimethyoxymethane has an ozone forming potential on a per mass basis that is only somewhat greater than ethane if multiple-day scenarios are considered.

  16. Modeling Effects of Climate Change on Air Quality and Population Exposure in Urban Planning Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lars Gidhagen

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We employ a nested system of global and regional climate models, linked to regional and urban air quality chemical transport models utilizing detailed inventories of present and future emissions, to study the relative impact of climate change and changing air pollutant emissions on air quality and population exposure in Stockholm, Sweden. We show that climate change only marginally affects air quality over the 20-year period studied. An exposure assessment reveals that the population of Stockholm can expect considerably lower NO2 exposure in the future, mainly due to reduced local NOx emissions. Ozone exposure will decrease only slightly, due to a combination of increased concentrations in the city centre and decreasing concentrations in the suburban areas. The increase in ozone concentration is a consequence of decreased local NOx emissions, which reduces the titration of the long-range transported ozone. Finally, we evaluate the consequences of a planned road transit project on future air quality in Stockholm. The construction of a very large bypass road (including one of the largest motorway road tunnels in Europe will only marginally influence total population exposure, this since the improved air quality in the city centre will be complemented by deteriorated air quality in suburban, residential areas.

  17. EDITORIAL: Where next with global environmental scenarios? Where next with global environmental scenarios?

    Science.gov (United States)

    O'Neill, Brian; Pulver, Simone; Van Deveer, Stacy; Garb, Yaakov

    2008-12-01

    Scenarios have become a standard tool in the portfolio of techniques that scientists and policy-makers use to envision and plan for the future. Defined as plausible, challenging and relevant stories about how the future might unfold that integrate quantitative models with qualitative assessments of social and political trends, scenarios are a central component in assessment processes for a range of global issues, including climate change, biodiversity, agriculture, and energy. Yet, despite their prevalence, systematic analysis of scenarios is in its beginning stages. Fundamental questions remain about both the epistemology and scientific credibility of scenarios and their roles in policymaking and social change. Answers to these questions have the potential to determine the future of scenario analyses. Is scenario analysis moving in the direction of earth system governance informed by global scenarios generated through increasingly complex and comprehensive models integrating socio-economic and earth systems? Or will global environmental scenario analyses lose favour compared to more focused, policy-driven, regionally specific modelling? These questions come at an important time for the climate change issue, given that the scenario community, catalyzed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), is currently preparing to embark on a new round of scenario development processes aimed at coordinating research and assessment, and informing policy, over the next five to ten years. These and related questions about where next to go with global environmental scenarios animated a workshop held at Brown University (Note1) that brought together leading practitioners and scholars of global environmental change scenarios from research, policy-making, advocacy, and business settings. The workshop aimed to provide an overview of current practices/best practices in scenario production and scenario use across a range of global environmental change arenas. Participants

  18. Explanatory factors for evolution in air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Deutsch, F.; Vankerkom, J.; Veldeman, N.; Peelaerts, W.; Fierens, F.; Vanpoucke, C.; Trimpeneers, E.; Vancraeynest, L.; Bossuyt, M.

    2010-12-01

    A method was formulated to map the Flemish sector contributions and foreign contributions to PM10, PM2.5 and ozone concentrations in Flanders. Flemish emissions scenarios from MIRA and the corresponding European emissions scenarios from IIASA were used for this. The content and production of these emissions scenarios were described in the Environment Outlook 2030 Flanders (REF and EUR scenarios) and in the MIRA study 'Particulate matter and photochemical air pollution. Visionary Scenario of the Environment outlook 2030 Flanders. In the context of this study, which emissions and atmospheric chemical processes play an important role in explaining the particulate matter and ozone concentrations in Flanders for the current situation (base year 2007) and for the three emissions prognoses for 2020 were analysed: (1) for an emissions scenario according to current European legislation; (2) for an emissions scenario with a number of additional European emissions reduction measures; (3) for an emissions scenario with further reaching emissions reductions. In general the emissions and the concentrations decrease in the three scenarios for 2020. The changes to emissions are related to sector and place, which has an impact on the relative sector contributions for Flanders. [nl

  19. Low-carbon energy policy and ambient air pollution in Shanghai, China: a health-based economic assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Changhong; Chen, Bingheng; Wang, Bingyan; Huang, Cheng; Zhao, Jing; Dai, Yi; Kan, Haidong

    2007-02-01

    Energy and related health issues are of growing concern worldwide today. To investigate the potential public health and economic impact of ambient air pollution under various low-carbon energy scenarios in Shanghai, we estimated the exposure level of Shanghai residents to air pollution under various planned scenarios, and assessed the public health impact using concentration-response functions derived from available epidemiologic studies. We then estimated the corresponding economic values of the health effects based on unit values for each health outcome. Our results show that ambient air pollution in relation to low-carbon energy scenarios could have a significant impact on the future health status of Shanghai residents, both in physical and monetary terms. Compared with the base case scenario, implementation of various low-carbon energy scenarios could prevent 2804-8249 and 9870-23,100 PM10-related avoidable deaths (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively. It could also decrease incidence of several relevant diseases. The corresponding economic benefits could reach 507.31-1492.33 and 2642.45-6192.11 million U.S. dollars (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively. These findings illustrate that a low-carbon energy policy will not only decrease the emission of greenhouse gases, but also play an active role in the reduction of air pollutant emissions, improvement of air quality, and promotion of public health. Our estimates can provide useful information to local decision-makers for further cost-benefit analysis.

  20. Low-carbon energy policy and ambient air pollution in Shanghai, China: A health-based economic assessment

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Changhong; Chen Bingheng; Wang Bingyan; Huang Cheng; Zhao Jing; Dai Yi; Kan Haidong

    2007-01-01

    Energy and related health issues are of growing concern worldwide today. To investigate the potential public health and economic impact of ambient air pollution under various low-carbon energy scenarios in Shanghai, we estimated the exposure level of Shanghai residents to air pollution under various planned scenarios, and assessed the public health impact using concentration-response functions derived from available epidemiologic studies. We then estimated the corresponding economic values of the health effects based on unit values for each health outcome. Our results show that ambient air pollution in relation to low-carbon energy scenarios could have a significant impact on the future health status of Shanghai residents, both in physical and monetary terms. Compared with the base case scenario, implementation of various low-carbon energy scenarios could prevent 2804-8249 and 9870-23,100 PM 10 -related avoidable deaths (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively. It could also decrease incidence of several relevant diseases. The corresponding economic benefits could reach 507.31-1492.33 and 2642.45-6192.11 million U.S. dollars (mid-value) in 2010 and 2020, respectively. These findings illustrate that a low-carbon energy policy will not only decrease the emission of greenhouse gases, but also play an active role in the reduction of air pollutant emissions, improvement of air quality, and promotion of public health. Our estimates can provide useful information to local decision-makers for further cost-benefit analysis

  1. Danish greenhouse gas reduction scenarios for 2020 and 2050

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karlsson, K.; Joergensen, Kaj. (Risoe DTU, Roskilde (DK)); Werling, J.; OErsted Pedersen, H.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A. (Ea energy Analysis, Copenhagen (DK))

    2008-02-15

    The aim of the project presented in this report was to develop scenarios for reducing Danish greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 2050. The scenarius provide a basis for estimating which technologies should be combined in order to obtain future reductions in greenhouse gas emissions in a cost-effective way. The scenarios include all emissions of greenhouse gases from agriculture, industry and oil extraction activities in the North Sea as well as the transport and energy sectors. Foreign air and sea carriage is not included because emissions related to such activities are not yet subject to international climate change agreements. The scenarios focus particularly on the technological possibilities and the necessary system changes in the Danish energy system and transport sector. Parallel to this, COWI has carried out analyses for the Danish Environmental Protection Agency focussing primarily on the reduction potentials in the transport sector and other emissions. COWI's results regarding agriculture and other emissions have been included in this analysis. Two timeframes are applied in the scenarios: the medium term, 2020, and the long term, 2050. For each timeframe, we have set up indicative targets that the scenarios must reach: 1) 2020: 30 and 40 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990 2) 2050: 60 and 80 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions compared to 1990. The scenarios for 2020 focus primarily on technologies that are already commercially available, whereas the scenarios for 2050 also examine technological options at the experimental or developmental stage. This includes hydrogen technologies and fuel cells as well as CO{sub 2} capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. The scenarios should be seen in connection with the EU objectives of a 20-30 % reduction in greenhouse gas emissions in 2020 and 60-80 % in 2050 compared to 1990. The EU's 30 % objective is contingent upon global efforts to reduce the world's greenhouse gas

  2. Implications of greenhouse gas emission mitigation scenarios for the main Asian regions

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ruijven, Bas J. van; Vuuren, Detlef P. van; Vliet, Jasper van; Mendoza Beltran, Angelica; Deetman, Sebastiaan; Elzen, Michel G.J. den

    2012-01-01

    In order to limit global mean temperature increase, long-term greenhouse gas emissions need to be reduced. This paper discusses the implications of greenhouse gas emission reductions for major Asian regions (China, India, Indonesia, South-East Asia, Japan and Korea) based on results from the IMAGE modelling framework. Energy use in regions and economic sectors is affected differently by ambitious climate policies. We find that the potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. With respect to technology choices in the power sector, we find major application of CO 2 storage in Indonesia and India, whereas Korea and India apply more solar and wind. Projections for Japan include a (debatable) large share of nuclear power. China and, India, and South-East Asia, show a diverse technology choice in the power sector. For the industry sector, we find that the recent rapid growth in China limits the potential for emission reduction in the next decades, assuming that recently built coal-based industry facilities are in use for the next decades. For the residential sector, the model results show that fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in GHG mitigation scenarios. With respect to co-benefits, we find lower imports of fossil energy in mitigation scenarios and a clear reduction of air pollutant emissions. - Highlights: ► The potential for emission reduction varies widely between regions. ► Some regions have attractive CO 2 storage capacity; others have low-cost solar/wind potential. ► The recent rapid growth of Chinese industry may limit emission reduction potential for decades. ► Fewer households switch from traditional fuels to modern fuels in mitigation scenarios. ► Mitigation scenarios show less fossil energy import and reduction of air pollutant emission.

  3. The world in scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    De Jong, A.; Roodenburg, H.

    1992-01-01

    As an introduction to this special issue 'Worlds of difference: Scenarios's for the economy, energy and the environment 1990-2015', an outline is given of the future of the world and the Netherlands, based on four scenarios. These scenarios are published in 'Scanning the future' in May 1992 by the CPB, the Dutch Central Planning Bureau. The Global Shift (GS) scenario is characterized by a very dynamic technological development, the free market perspective, strong economic growth in the Asian economies, and a relative economic regression in Western Europe. In the European Renaissance (ER) scenario the technological development is less dynamic and more gradual than in the GS scenario. The Balanced Growth (BG) scenario is dominated by a sustainable economic development and a strong technological dynamic development. The Global Crisis (GC) scenario shows a downward spiral in many areas, stagnating developments and fragile economies as results of the trends in the eighties. The first three scenarios are elaborated for the Netherlands. Also attention is paid to the aims and meaning of long-term scenarios. 2 figs., 2 tabs., 3 refs

  4. Sustainable Low Carbon Transport Scenarios for India

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Shukla, P.R.; Dhar, Subash; Mittal, Shivika

    2014-01-01

    and local air quality that can be accrued by mainstreaming climate change polices into national sustainable development goals and sectoral plans are also estimated. There is no silver bullet that would enable the transition towards low carbon transport. An optimal mix of policies that includes fuel economy...... standards, modal shifts and cleaner energy supply is required to align climate and sustainable development goals in the long-term....... are delineated that would facilitate the sustainable low carbon transformation of India’s transport sector. The long term energy and emission trajectory of India’s transport sector is assessed under alternate scenarios using the integrated assessment modelling framework. Co-benefits like energy security...

  5. Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 9, No. 2. Volume 9, No. 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Brent (Editor); Kabashkin, Igor (Editor); Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar (Editor); Scarpellini, Nanette (Editor)

    2004-01-01

    The following articles from the "Journal of Air Transportation" were processed: Future Requirements and Concepts for Cabins of Blended Wing Body Configurations:A Scenario Approach; Future Scenarios for the European Airline Industry: A Marketing-Based Perspective; An Application of the Methodology for Assessment of the Sustainability of the Air Transport System; Modeling the Effect of Enlarged Seating Room on Passenger Preferences of Domestic Airlines in Taiwan; Developing a Fleet Standardization Index for Airline Pricing; and Future Airport Capacity Utilization in Germany: Peaked Congestion and/or Idle Capacity).

  6. Scenario Modeling of Thermal Influence from Forest Fire Front on a Coniferous Tree Trunk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Baranovskiy Nikolay V.

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Scenario research results of heat transfer and tissue damage in three-layered tree trunk influenced by heat flux from forest fire are presented. The problem is solved in two-dimensional statement in polar coordinates. The typical range of influence parameters (heat flux from forest fire front, trunk radius, coniferous species, air temperature, duration of exposure and distance from fire line is considered. Temperature distributions in different moments of time are obtained. Condition of tree damage by forest fire influence is under consideration in this research. Information summarized using tables with scenario and fire consequences results.

  7. 78 FR 58970 - Airworthiness Directives; The Boeing Company Airplanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-25

    ... caused by moisture or condensation being collected inside the display units during operation in hot and... moisture or condensation ingress. The most frequent instance was display units being cold soaked by the air...

  8. Letter to the Editor: Applications Air Q Model on Estimate Health Effects Exposure to Air Pollutants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gholamreza Goudarzi

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiologic studies in worldwide have measured increases in mortality and morbidity associated with air pollution (1-3. Quantifying the effects of air pollution on the human health in urban area causes an increasingly critical component in policy discussion (4-6. Air Q model was proved to be a valid and reliable tool to predicts health effects related to criteria  pollutants (particulate matter (PM, ozone (O3, nitrogen dioxide (NO2, sulfur dioxide (SO2, and carbon monoxide (CO, determinate  the  potential short term effects of air pollution  and allows the examination of various scenarios in which emission rates of pollutants are varied (7,8. Air Q software provided by the WHO European Centre for Environment and Health (ECEH (9. Air Q model is based on cohort studies and used to estimates of both attributable average reductions in life-span and numbers of mortality and morbidity associated with exposure to air pollution (10,11. Applications

  9. Parametric study of postulated reactivity transients due to ingress of heavy water from the reflector tank into the converted core of APSARA reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sankaranarayanan, S.

    2004-01-01

    Research reactors in the power range 5-10 MW with useable neutron flux values >1.OE+14 n/sqcm/sec can be constructed using LEU fuel with light water for neutron moderation and fuel cooling. In order to obtain a large irradiation volume, a heavy water reflector is used where fairly high neutron flux levels can be obtained. A prototype LEU fuelled 5/10 MW reactor design has been developed in the Bhabha Atomic Research Centre in Trombay. Work is on hand to carry out technology simulation of this reactor design by converting the pool type reactor APSARA in BARC. Presently the Apsara reactor uses MTh type high enriched U-Al alloy plate type fuel loaded in a 7x7 grid with a square lattice pitch of 76.8 mm. The reactor has three control-scram-shut off rods and one regulating control rod. In the first phase of the simulation studies, it is proposed to use the existing high enriched uranium fuel in a modified core with 37 positions arranged with a square lattice pitch of 84.8 mm, surrounded by a 50 cm thick heavy water reflector. Subsequently the converted core will use plate-type low enriched uranium suicide fuel. One of the accident scenarios postulated for the safety evaluation of the modified APSARA reactor is the reactivity transient due to the ingress of heavy water into the core through a small sized rupture in the aluminium wall of the reflector tank. Parametric analyses were done for the safety evaluation of modified Apsara reactor, for postulated leak of heavy water into the core from the reflector tank. A simplified computer code REDYN, based on point model reactor kinetics with one effective group of delayed neutrons is used for the analyses. Results of several parametric cases used in the study show that it is possible to contain the consequences of this type of reactivity transient within acceptable fuel and coolant thermal safety limits

  10. Final Report: Safety of Plasma Components and Aerosol Transport During Hard Disruptions and Accidental Energy Release in Fusion Reactor

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bourham, Mohamed A.; Gilligan, John G.

    1999-08-14

    Safety considerations in large future fusion reactors like ITER are important before licensing the reactor. Several scenarios are considered hazardous, which include safety of plasma-facing components during hard disruptions, high heat fluxes and thermal stresses during normal operation, accidental energy release, and aerosol formation and transport. Disruption events, in large tokamaks like ITER, are expected to produce local heat fluxes on plasma-facing components, which may exceed 100 GW/m{sup 2} over a period of about 0.1 ms. As a result, the surface temperature dramatically increases, which results in surface melting and vaporization, and produces thermal stresses and surface erosion. Plasma-facing components safety issues extends to cover a wide range of possible scenarios, including disruption severity and the impact of plasma-facing components on disruption parameters, accidental energy release and short/long term LOCA's, and formation of airborne particles by convective current transport during a LOVA (water/air ingress disruption) accident scenario. Study, and evaluation of, disruption-induced aerosol generation and mobilization is essential to characterize database on particulate formation and distribution for large future fusion tokamak reactor like ITER. In order to provide database relevant to ITER, the SIRENS electrothermal plasma facility at NCSU has been modified to closely simulate heat fluxes expected in ITER.

  11. Final Report: Safety of Plasma-Facing Components and Aerosol Transport During Hard Disruptions and Accidental Energy Release in Fusion Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bourham, Mohamed A.; Gilligan, John G.

    1999-01-01

    Safety considerations in large future fusion reactors like ITER are important before licensing the reactor. Several scenarios are considered hazardous, which include safety of plasma-facing components during hard disruptions, high heat fluxes and thermal stresses during normal operation, accidental energy release, and aerosol formation and transport. Disruption events, in large tokamaks like ITER, are expected to produce local heat fluxes on plasma-facing components, which may exceed 100 GW/m 2 over a period of about 0.1 ms. As a result, the surface temperature dramatically increases, which results in surface melting and vaporization, and produces thermal stresses and surface erosion. Plasma-facing components safety issues extends to cover a wide range of possible scenarios, including disruption severity and the impact of plasma-facing components on disruption parameters, accidental energy release and short/long term LOCA's, and formation of airborne particles by convective current transport during a LOVA (water/air ingress disruption) accident scenario. Study, and evaluation of, disruption-induced aerosol generation and mobilization is essential to characterize database on particulate formation and distribution for large future fusion tokamak reactor like ITER. In order to provide database relevant to ITER, the SIRENS electrothermal plasma facility at NCSU has been modified to closely simulate heat fluxes expected in ITER

  12. Subway platform air quality: Assessing the influences of tunnel ventilation, train piston effect and station design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moreno, T.; Pérez, N.; Reche, C.; Martins, V.; de Miguel, E.; Capdevila, M.; Centelles, S.; Minguillón, M. C.; Amato, F.; Alastuey, A.; Querol, X.; Gibbons, W.

    2014-08-01

    A high resolution air quality monitoring campaign (PM, CO2 and CO) was conducted on differently designed station platforms in the Barcelona subway system under: (a) normal forced tunnel ventilation, and (b) with daytime tunnel ventilation systems shut down. PM concentrations are highly variable (6-128 μgPM1 m-3, 16-314 μgPM3 m-3, and 33-332 μgPM10 m-3, 15-min averages) depending on ventilation conditions and station design. Narrow platforms served by single-track tunnels are heavily dependent on forced tunnel ventilation and cannot rely on the train piston effect alone to reduce platform PM concentrations. In contrast PM levels in stations with spacious double-track tunnels are not greatly affected when tunnel ventilation is switched off, offering the possibility of significant energy savings without damaging air quality. Sampling at different positions along the platform reveals considerable lateral variation, with the greatest accumulation of particulates occurring at one end of the platform. Passenger accesses can dilute PM concentrations by introducing cleaner outside air, although lateral down-platform accesses are less effective than those positioned at the train entry point. CO concentrations on the platform are very low (≤1 ppm) and probably controlled by ingress of traffic-contaminated street-level air. CO2 averages range from 371 to 569 ppm, changing during the build-up and exchange of passengers with each passing train.

  13. Food scenarios 2025

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sundbo, Jon

    2016-01-01

    This article presents the results of a future study of the food sector. Two scenarios have been developed using a combination of: 1) a summary of the relevant scientific knowledge, 2) systematic scenario writing, 3) an expert-based Delphi technique, and 4) an expert seminar assessment. The two...... scenarios present possible futures at global, national (Denmark) and regional (Zealand, Denmark) levels. The main scenario is called ‘Food for ordinary days and celebrations’ (a combination of ‘High-technological food production − The functional society’ and ‘High-gastronomic food − The experience society...

  14. Interpreting energy scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iyer, Gokul; Edmonds, James

    2018-05-01

    Quantitative scenarios from energy-economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their initial development. In the absence of clear guidance from modellers, users may place too much or too little confidence in scenario assumptions and results.

  15. Sensitivity analysis on the zirconium ignition in a postulated SFP loss of coolant accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Sanggil; Lee, Jaeyoung; Kim, Sun-ki; Chun, Tae-hyun; Bang, Je-geon

    2016-01-01

    From both SFP complete LOCA experiments, it was observed that zirconium alloy cladding temperature was abruptly increased at a certain point and the cladding was almost fully oxidized. To capture this phenomenon, the concept of air oxidation breakaway model was adopted in MELCOR code. This paper examines this air oxidation breakaway model by comparing the SFP project test data and MELCOR code calculation results by using this model. The air oxidation model parameters are slightly altered to see their sensitivities on the occurrence of the zirconium ignition. Through such sensitivity analysis, limitations of the air oxidation breakaway model are revealed in comparison to the actual zirconium ignition phenomenon during air ingress scenarios. In addition, ways to overcome the identified limitations of the air oxidation model are recommended to estimate better the zirconium ignition phenomenon in SFP sequences. In this paper, the zirconium ignition phenomenon was reviewed and the model to capture this phenomenon was investigated. The model is the air oxidation breakaway model in MELCOR code, and its sensitivity of the model parameters on the time to ignition was studied. From the sensitivity analysis, the slight change of model parameters induce the large variation of the time to ignition. The model itself includes its weakness to fully represent both the air oxidation breakaway phenomenon and the followed zirconium ignition behavior. Furthermore, this model considers no effect of N2 on the cladding degradation and its promoted exothermic heat release

  16. Sensitivity analysis on the zirconium ignition in a postulated SFP loss of coolant accident

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Sanggil; Lee, Jaeyoung [Handong Global Univ., Pohang (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Sun-ki; Chun, Tae-hyun; Bang, Je-geon [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2016-10-15

    From both SFP complete LOCA experiments, it was observed that zirconium alloy cladding temperature was abruptly increased at a certain point and the cladding was almost fully oxidized. To capture this phenomenon, the concept of air oxidation breakaway model was adopted in MELCOR code. This paper examines this air oxidation breakaway model by comparing the SFP project test data and MELCOR code calculation results by using this model. The air oxidation model parameters are slightly altered to see their sensitivities on the occurrence of the zirconium ignition. Through such sensitivity analysis, limitations of the air oxidation breakaway model are revealed in comparison to the actual zirconium ignition phenomenon during air ingress scenarios. In addition, ways to overcome the identified limitations of the air oxidation model are recommended to estimate better the zirconium ignition phenomenon in SFP sequences. In this paper, the zirconium ignition phenomenon was reviewed and the model to capture this phenomenon was investigated. The model is the air oxidation breakaway model in MELCOR code, and its sensitivity of the model parameters on the time to ignition was studied. From the sensitivity analysis, the slight change of model parameters induce the large variation of the time to ignition. The model itself includes its weakness to fully represent both the air oxidation breakaway phenomenon and the followed zirconium ignition behavior. Furthermore, this model considers no effect of N2 on the cladding degradation and its promoted exothermic heat release.

  17. Indoor air quality scenario in India-An outline of household fuel combustion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rohra, Himanshi; Taneja, Ajay

    2016-03-01

    Most of the research around the world has been on outdoor air pollution, but in India we have a more severe problem of Indoor Air Pollution (IAP). The foremost factor cited for is burning of fossil fuels for cooking. Among the 70% of the country's rural population, about 80% households rely on biomass fuel making India to top the list of countries with largest population lacking access to cleaner fuel for cooking. 4 million deaths and 5% disability-adjusted life-years is an upshot of exposure to IAP from unhealthy cooking making it globally the most critical environmental risk factor. India alone bears the highest burden (28% needless deaths) among developing countries. Moreover, about ¼ of ambient PM2.5 in the country comes from household cookfuels. These considerations have prompted the discussion of the present knowledge on the disastrous health effects of pollutants emitted by biomass combustion in India. Additionally, Particulate Matter as an indoor air pollutant is highlighted with main focus on its spatial temporal variation and some recent Indian studies are further explored. As there are no specific norms for IAP in India, urgent need has arisen for implementing the strategies to create public awareness. Moreover improvement in ventilation and modification in the pattern of fuel will also contribute to eradicate this national health issue.

  18. Urban air quality in Europe

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Viana, Mar (ed.) [Spanish Research Council - CSIC, Barcelona (Spain). Inst. for Environmental Assessment and Water Research

    2013-07-01

    This book provides an overview of air quality in urban environments in Europe, focusing on air pollutant emission sources and formation mechanisms, measurement and modeling strategies, and future perspectives. The emission sources described are biomass burning, vehicular traffic, industry and agriculture, but also African dust and long-range transport of pollutants across the European regions. The impact of these emission sources and processes on atmospheric particulate matter, ozone, nitrogen oxides and volatile and semi-volatile organic compounds is discussed and critical areas for particulate matter and nitrogen dioxide in Europe are identified. Finally, this volume presents future perspectives, mainly regarding upcoming air quality monitoring strategies, metrics of interest, such as submicron and nanoparticles, and indoor and outdoor exposure scenarios.

  19. Air quality assessment in Salim Slam Tunnel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    El-Fadel, M.; Hashisho, Z.; Saikaly, P.

    1999-01-01

    Full text.Vehicle emissions constitute a serious occupational environmental hazard particularly in confined spaces such as tunnels and underground parking garages. these emissions at elevated concentrations, can cause adverse health effects, which range from nausea and eye irritation to mutagenicity, carcinogenicity and even death. This paper presents an environmental air quality assessment in a tunnel located in a highly congested urban area. For this purpose, air samples were collected and analyzed for the presence of primary air pollutants, priority metals, and volatile organic carbons. Air quality modeling was conducted to simulate variations of pollutant concentrations in the tunnel under worst case scenarios including traffic congestion and no air ventilation. Field measurements and mathematical simulation results were used to develop a strategy for proper air quality management in tunnels

  20. Congestion transition in air traffic networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bernardo Monechi

    Full Text Available Air Transportation represents a very interesting example of a complex techno-social system whose importance has considerably grown in time and whose management requires a careful understanding of the subtle interplay between technological infrastructure and human behavior. Despite the competition with other transportation systems, a growth of air traffic is still foreseen in Europe for the next years. The increase of traffic load could bring the current Air Traffic Network above its capacity limits so that safety standards and performances might not be guaranteed anymore. Lacking the possibility of a direct investigation of this scenario, we resort to computer simulations in order to quantify the disruptive potential of an increase in traffic load. To this end we model the Air Transportation system as a complex dynamical network of flights controlled by humans who have to solve potentially dangerous conflicts by redirecting aircraft trajectories. The model is driven and validated through historical data of flight schedules in a European national airspace. While correctly reproducing actual statistics of the Air Transportation system, e.g., the distribution of delays, the model allows for theoretical predictions. Upon an increase of the traffic load injected in the system, the model predicts a transition from a phase in which all conflicts can be successfully resolved, to a phase in which many conflicts cannot be resolved anymore. We highlight how the current flight density of the Air Transportation system is well below the transition, provided that controllers make use of a special re-routing procedure. While the congestion transition displays a universal scaling behavior, its threshold depends on the conflict solving strategy adopted. Finally, the generality of the modeling scheme introduced makes it a flexible general tool to simulate and control Air Transportation systems in realistic and synthetic scenarios.

  1. Congestion transition in air traffic networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monechi, Bernardo; Servedio, Vito D P; Loreto, Vittorio

    2015-01-01

    Air Transportation represents a very interesting example of a complex techno-social system whose importance has considerably grown in time and whose management requires a careful understanding of the subtle interplay between technological infrastructure and human behavior. Despite the competition with other transportation systems, a growth of air traffic is still foreseen in Europe for the next years. The increase of traffic load could bring the current Air Traffic Network above its capacity limits so that safety standards and performances might not be guaranteed anymore. Lacking the possibility of a direct investigation of this scenario, we resort to computer simulations in order to quantify the disruptive potential of an increase in traffic load. To this end we model the Air Transportation system as a complex dynamical network of flights controlled by humans who have to solve potentially dangerous conflicts by redirecting aircraft trajectories. The model is driven and validated through historical data of flight schedules in a European national airspace. While correctly reproducing actual statistics of the Air Transportation system, e.g., the distribution of delays, the model allows for theoretical predictions. Upon an increase of the traffic load injected in the system, the model predicts a transition from a phase in which all conflicts can be successfully resolved, to a phase in which many conflicts cannot be resolved anymore. We highlight how the current flight density of the Air Transportation system is well below the transition, provided that controllers make use of a special re-routing procedure. While the congestion transition displays a universal scaling behavior, its threshold depends on the conflict solving strategy adopted. Finally, the generality of the modeling scheme introduced makes it a flexible general tool to simulate and control Air Transportation systems in realistic and synthetic scenarios.

  2. Assessment of the emissions and air quality impacts of biomass and biogas use in California.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Williams, Robert; Dabdub, Donald

    2016-02-01

    It is estimated that there is sufficient in-state "technically" recoverable biomass to support nearly 4000 MW of bioelectricity generation capacity. This study assesses the emissions of greenhouse gases and air pollutants and resulting air quality impacts of new and existing bioenergy capacity throughout the state of California, focusing on feedstocks and advanced technologies utilizing biomass resources predominant in each region. The options for bioresources include the production of bioelectricity and renewable natural gas (NG). Emissions of criteria pollutants and greenhouse gases are quantified for a set of scenarios that span the emission factors for power generation and the use of renewable natural gas for vehicle fueling. Emissions are input to the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model to predict regional and statewide temporal air quality impacts from the biopower scenarios. With current technology and at the emission levels of current installations, maximum bioelectricity production could increase nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions by 10% in 2020, which would cause increases in ozone and particulate matter concentrations in large areas of California. Technology upgrades would achieve the lowest criteria pollutant emissions. Conversion of biomass to compressed NG (CNG) for vehicles would achieve comparable emission reductions of criteria pollutants and minimize emissions of greenhouse gases (GHG). Air quality modeling of biomass scenarios suggest that applying technological changes and emission controls would minimize the air quality impacts of bioelectricity generation. And a shift from bioelectricity production to CNG production for vehicles would reduce air quality impacts further. From a co-benefits standpoint, CNG production for vehicles appears to provide the best benefits in terms of GHG emissions and air quality. This investigation provides a consistent analysis of air quality impacts and greenhouse gas emissions for scenarios examining

  3. Potential for reducing air-pollutants while achieving 2 °C global temperature change limit target.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanaoka, Tatsuya; Akashi, Osamu; Fujiwara, Kazuya; Motoki, Yuko; Hibino, Go

    2014-12-01

    This study analyzes the potential to reduce air pollutants while achieving the 2 °C global temperature change limit target above pre-industrial levels, by using the bottom-up optimization model, AIM/Enduse[Global]. This study focuses on; 1) estimating mitigation potentials and costs for achieving 2 °C, 2.5 °C, and 3 °C target scenarios, 2) assessing co-benefits of reducing air pollutants such as NOx, SO2, BC, PM, and 3) analyzing features of sectoral attributions in Annex I and Non-Annex I groups of countries. The carbon tax scenario at 50 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 can reduce GHG emissions more than the 3 °C target scenario, but a higher carbon price around 400 US$/tCO2-eq in 2050 is required to achieve the 2 °C target scenario. However, there is also a co-benefit of large reduction potential of air pollutants, in the range of 60-80% reductions in 2050 from the reference scenario while achieving the 2 °C target. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Model and scenario variations in predicted number of generations of Spodoptera litura Fab. on peanut during future climate change scenario.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mathukumalli Srinivasa Rao

    Full Text Available The present study features the estimation of number of generations of tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura. Fab. on peanut crop at six locations in India using MarkSim, which provides General Circulation Model (GCM of future data on daily maximum (T.max, minimum (T.min air temperatures from six models viz., BCCR-BCM2.0, CNRM-CM3, CSIRO-Mk3.5, ECHams5, INCM-CM3.0 and MIROC3.2 along with an ensemble of the six from three emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1. This data was used to predict the future pest scenarios following the growing degree days approach in four different climate periods viz., Baseline-1975, Near future (NF -2020, Distant future (DF-2050 and Very Distant future (VDF-2080. It is predicted that more generations would occur during the three future climate periods with significant variation among scenarios and models. Among the seven models, 1-2 additional generations were predicted during DF and VDF due to higher future temperatures in CNRM-CM3, ECHams5 & CSIRO-Mk3.5 models. The temperature projections of these models indicated that the generation time would decrease by 18-22% over baseline. Analysis of variance (ANOVA was used to partition the variation in the predicted number of generations and generation time of S. litura on peanut during crop season. Geographical location explained 34% of the total variation in number of generations, followed by time period (26%, model (1.74% and scenario (0.74%. The remaining 14% of the variation was explained by interactions. Increased number of generations and reduction of generation time across the six peanut growing locations of India suggest that the incidence of S. litura may increase due to projected increase in temperatures in future climate change periods.

  5. Climate Penalty on Air Quality and Human Health in China and India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, M.; Zhang, S.; Garcia-Menendez, F.; Monier, E.; Selin, N. E.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change, favoring more heat waves and episodes of stagnant air, may deteriorate air quality by increasing ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations and high pollution episodes. This effect, termed as "climate penalty", has been quantified and explained by many earlier studies in the U.S. and Europe, but research efforts in Asian countries are limited. We evaluate the impact of climate change on air quality and human health in China and India using a modeling framework that links the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Integrated Global System Model to the Community Atmosphere Model (MIT IGSM-CAM). Future climate fields are projected under three climate scenarios including a no-policy reference scenario and two climate stabilization scenarios with 2100 total radiative forcing targets of 9.7, 4.5 and 3.7 W m-2, respectively. Each climate scenario is run for five representations of climate variability to account for the role of natural variability. Thirty-year chemical transport simulations are conducted in 1981-2010 and 2086-2115 under the three climate scenarios with fixed anthropogenic emissions at year 2000 levels. We find that 2000—2100 climate change under the no-policy reference scenario would increase ozone concentrations in eastern China and northern India by up to 5 ppb through enhancing biogenic emissions and ozone production efficiency. Ozone extreme episodes also become more frequent in these regions, while climate policies can offset most of the increase in ozone episodes. Climate change between 2000 and 2100 would slightly increase anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in northern China and Sichuan province, but significantly reduce anthropogenic PM2.5 concentrations in southern China and northern India, primarily due to different chemical responses of sulfate-nitrate-ammonium aerosols to climate change in these regions. Our study also suggests that the mitigation costs of climate policies can be partially offset by health

  6. Geostationary Coastal and Air Pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) Sensitivity Analysis Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Meemong; Bowman, Kevin

    2014-01-01

    Geostationary Coastal and Air pollution Events (GEO-CAPE) is a NASA decadal survey mission to be designed to provide surface reflectance at high spectral, spatial, and temporal resolutions from a geostationary orbit necessary for studying regional-scale air quality issues and their impact on global atmospheric composition processes. GEO-CAPE's Atmospheric Science Questions explore the influence of both gases and particles on air quality, atmospheric composition, and climate. The objective of the GEO-CAPE Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE) is to analyze the sensitivity of ozone to the global and regional NOx emissions and improve the science impact of GEO-CAPE with respect to the global air quality. The GEO-CAPE OSSE team at Jet propulsion Laboratory has developed a comprehensive OSSE framework that can perform adjoint-sensitivity analysis for a wide range of observation scenarios and measurement qualities. This report discusses the OSSE framework and presents the sensitivity analysis results obtained from the GEO-CAPE OSSE framework for seven observation scenarios and three instrument systems.

  7. Integrative Scenario Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joerg A. Priess

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

  8. Reformulated and alternative fuels: modeled impacts on regional air quality with special emphasis on surface ozone concentration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schell, Benedikt; Ackermann, Ingmar J; Hass, Heinz

    2002-07-15

    The comprehensive European Air Pollution and Dispersion model system was used to estimate the impacts of the usage of reformulated and alternative fuels on regional air quality with special emphasis on surface ozone concentrations. A severe western European summer smog episode in July 1994 has been used as a reference, and the model predictions have been evaluated for this episode. A forecast simulation for the year 2005 (TREND) has been performed, including the future emission development based on the current legislation and technologies available. The results of the scenario TREND are used as a baseline for the other 2005 fuel scenarios, including fuel reformulation, fuel sulfur content, and compressed natural gas (CNG) as an alternative fuel. Compared to the year 1994, significant reductions in episode peak ozone concentrations and ozone grid hours are predicted for the TREND scenario. These reductions are even more pronounced within the investigated alternative and reformulated fuel scenarios. Especially, low sulfur fuels are appropriate for an immediate improvement in air quality, because they effect the emissions of the whole fleet. Furthermore, the simulation results indicate that the introduction of CNG vehicles would also enhance air quality with respect to ozone.

  9. Adobe AIR 15 Cookbook Solutions and Examples for Rich Internet Application Developers

    CERN Document Server

    Tucker, David; DeWeggheleire, Koen

    2008-01-01

    The hands-on recipes in this cookbook help you solve a variety of tasks and scenarios often encountered when using Adobe AIR to build Rich Internet Applications for the desktop. Thoroughly vetted by Adobe's AIR development team, Adobe AIR 1.5 Cookbook addresses fundamentals, best practices, and more. If you want to learn the nuances of Adobe AIR to build innovative applications, this is the book you've been waiting for.

  10. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pitcher, Hugh M

    2009-01-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  11. The future of scenarios: issues in developing new climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pitcher, Hugh M.

    2009-04-01

    In September, 2007, the IPCC convened a workshop to discuss how a new set of scenarios to support climate model runs, mitigation analyses, and impact, adaptation and vulnerability research might be developed. The first phase of the suggested new approach is now approaching completion. This article discusses some of the issues raised by scenario relevant research and analysis since the last set of IPCC scenarios were created (IPCC SRES, 2000) that will need to be addressed as new scenarios are developed by the research community during the second phase. These include (1) providing a logic for how societies manage to transition from historical paths to the various future development paths foreseen in the scenarios, (2) long-term economic growth issues, (3) the appropriate GDP metric to use (purchasing power parity or market exchange rates), (4) ongoing issues with moving from the broad geographic and time scales of the emission scenarios to the finer scales needed for impacts, adaptation and vulnerability analyses and (5) some possible ways to handle the urgent request from the policy community for some guidance on scenario likelihoods. The challenges involved in addressing these issues are manifold; the reward is greater credibility and deeper understanding of an analytic tool that does much to form the context within which many issues in addition to the climate problem will need to be addressed.

  12. Assessment of Air-Pollution Control Policy’s Impact on China’s PV Power: A System Dynamics Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaodan Guo

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Recently, China has brought out several air-pollution control policies, which indicate the prominent position that PV power hold in improving atmosphere environment. Under this policy environment, the development of China’s PV power will be greatly affected. Firstly, after analyzing the influencing path of air-pollution control policies on PV power, this paper built a system dynamics model, which can be used as a platform for predicting China’s PV power development in every policy scenario during 2015–2025. Secondly, different model parameters are put into the SD model to simulate three scenarios of air-pollution control policies. Comparisons between the simulated results of different policy scenarios measure the air-pollution control policy’s impact on China’s PV power in the aspect of generation, installed capacity, power curtailment and so on. This paper points out the long-term development pattern of China’s PV power under latest incentive policies, and provides reference for the policymakers to increase the effect and efficiency of air-pollution control policies.

  13. Air temperature changes in Colombia under a doubled carbon dioxide scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Molina Lizcano, Alicia; Bernal Suarez, Nestor Ricardo; Vega Rodriguez, Emel Enrique; Martinez Collantes, Jorge; Pabon Caicedo, Jose Daniel

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this study contributes to obtain future scenarios related to climate change to Colombia. The methodology used is statistical down scaling to 24 climatic regions. This method finds the relationships between simulated atmospheric variables (gridded data) by the general circulation model CCM3 (version 3) and surface temperature historic data to each climatic region. The statistical alternative used is canonical correlation analysis. This technique has been applied to some climate change studies. The statistical down scaling uses two data periods, calibration (1969 to 1990) and validation (1991 to 1998). The relationships are obtained with calibration data, and then we estimate temperature values to each station with the validation data. The results are applied to simulated data with duplicated CO 2 assumption in order to estimate surface temperature projections

  14. Exploring the reversibility of marine climate change impacts in temperature overshoot scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zickfeld, K.; Li, X.; Tokarska, K.; Kohfeld, K. E.

    2017-12-01

    Artificial carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere has been proposed as a measure for mitigating climate change and restoring the climate system to a `safe' state after overshoot. Previous studies have demonstrated that the changes in surface air temperature due to anthropogenic CO2 emissions can be reversed through CDR, while some oceanic properties, for example thermosteric sea level rise, show a delay in their response to CDR. This research aims to investigate the reversibility of changes in ocean conditions after implementation of CDR with a focus on ocean biogeochemical properties. To achieve this, we analyze climate model simulations based on two sets of emission scenarios. We first use RCP2.6 and its extension until year 2300 as the reference scenario and design several temperature and cumulative CO2 emissions "overshoot" scenarios based on other RCPs, which represents cases with less ambitious mitigation policies in the near term that temporarily exceed the 2 °C target adopted by the Paris Agreement. In addition, we use a set of emission scenarios with a reference scenario limiting warming to 1.5°C in the long term and two overshoot scenarios. The University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM), a climate model of intermediate complexity, is forced with these emission scenarios. We compare the response of select ocean variables (seawater temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen) in the overshoot scenarios to that in the respective reference scenario at the time the same amount of cumulative emissions is achieved. Our results suggest that the overshoot and subsequent return to a reference CO2 cumulative emissions level would leave substantial impacts on the marine environment. Although the changes in global mean sea surface variables (temperature, pH and dissolved oxygen) are largely reversible, global mean ocean temperature, dissolved oxygen and pH differ significantly from those in the reference scenario. Large ocean areas exhibit

  15. Effects of building aspect ratio, diurnal heating scenario, and wind speed on reactive pollutant dispersion in urban street canyons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Nelson Y O; Leung, Dennis Y C

    2012-01-01

    A photochemistry coupled computational fluid dynamics (CFD) based numerical model has been developed to model the reactive pollutant dispersion within urban street canyons, particularly integrating the interrelationship among diurnal heating scenario (solar radiation affections in nighttime, daytime, and sun-rise/set), wind speed, building aspect ratio (building-height-to-street-width), and dispersion of reactive gases, specifically nitric oxide (NO), nitrogen dioxide (NO2) and ozone (O3) such that a higher standard of air quality in metropolitan cities can be achieved. Validation has been done with both experimental and numerical results on flow and temperature fields in a street canyon with bottom heating, which justifies the accuracy of the current model. The model was applied to idealized street canyons of different aspect ratios from 0.5 to 8 with two different ambient wind speeds under different diurnal heating scenarios to estimate the influences of different aforementioned parameters on the chemical evolution of NO, NO2 and O3. Detailed analyses of vertical profiles of pollutant concentrations showed that different diurnal heating scenarios could substantially affect the reactive gases exchange between the street canyon and air aloft, followed by respective dispersion and reaction. Higher building aspect ratio and stronger ambient wind speed were revealed to be, in general, responsible for enhanced entrainment of O3 concentrations into the street canyons along windward walls under all diurnal heating scenarios. Comparatively, particular attention can be paid on the windward wall heating and nighttime uniform surface heating scenarios.

  16. Will technological progress be sufficient to stabilize CO2 emissions from air transport in the mid-term?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cheze, Benoit; Chevallier, Julien; Gastineau, Pascal

    2012-01-01

    This article investigates whether anticipated technological progress can be expected to be strong enough to offset carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions resulting from the rapid growth of air transport. Aviation CO 2 emissions projections are provided at the worldwide level and for eight geographical zones until 2025. Total air traffic flows are first forecast using a dynamic panel-data econometric model, and then converted into corresponding quantities of air traffic CO 2 emissions using specific hypotheses and energy factors. None of our nine scenarios appears compatible with the objective of 450 ppm CO 2 -eq. (a.k.a. 'scenario of type I') recommended by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). None is either compatible with the IPCC scenario of type III, which aims at limiting global warming to 3.2 deg. C

  17. Urban air quality management. V. 1

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1997-01-01

    This is the first in a series of reports commissioned by the International Petroleum Industry Environmental Conservation Association (IPIECA) to represent members' views on the management of urban air quality in the growing cities in developing countries. In this report, a general, science based framework is provided as a basis for understanding the nature of the problem in any specific urban area, the range of solutions that might be available, and the potential impact of each solution and its least cost privatisation. The topics covered are: a process for urban air quality management; setting air quality targets; a structured approach to the assessment of current and future air quality modelling methodologies; identification and collation of air quality model input data; development of socio-economic scenarios -long-term trend forecasting; cost effectiveness studies; the IPIECA approach to urban air quality management - development of partnerships; encouraging commitment to implementation of programme recommendations. (7 figures; 2 tables; 18 references). (UK)

  18. Evaluating co-benefits of energy efficiency and air pollution abatement in China’s cement industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Shaohui; Worrell, Ernst; Crijns-Graus, Wina

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Implementation rates of 37 EEMs are quantified for China’s cement industry. • Energy Supply Cost Curves were implemented in the GAINS model. • The economic energy saving potential is 3.0 EJ and costs is $4.1 billion in 2030. • Energy efficiency would lead to large reductions in air pollution. • The co-benefits decrease average marginal costs of EEMs by 20%. - Abstract: China’s cement industry is the world’s largest and is one of the largest energy consuming, and GHG and air pollutant emitting industries. Actions to improve energy efficiency by best available technology can often bring co-benefits for climate change and air quality through reducing emissions of GHGs and air pollutants emission. In this study, the energy conservation supply curves (ECSC) combined with the GAINS (Greenhouse Gas and Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) was used to estimate the co-benefits of energy savings on CO 2 and air pollutants emission for implementing co-control options of energy efficiency measures and end-of-pipe options in the China’s cement industry for the period 2011–2030. Results show that there are large co-benefits of improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions of CO 2 and air pollutants for the China’s cement industry during the study period. The cost-effective energy saving potential (EEP1 scenario) and its costs is estimated to be 3.0 EJ and 4.1 billion $ in 2030. The technical energy savings potential (EEP2 scenario) and its costs amount to 4.2 EJ and 8.4 billion $ at the same time. Compared to the baseline scenario, energy efficiency measures can help decrease 5% of CO 2 , 3% of PM, 15% of SO 2 , and 12% of NOx emissions by 2030 in EEP1 scenario. If we do not consider costs (EEP2 scenario), energy efficiency measures can further reduce 3% of CO 2 , 2% of PM, 10% of SO 2 , and 8% of NOx by 2030. Overall, the average marginal costs of energy efficiency measures will decrease by 20%, from 1.48 $/GJ to 1.19 $/GJ, when

  19. Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

    2011-01-01

    Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

  20. Effects of the Air Flow Rate on The Oxidation of NBG-18 and 25 Nuclear Graphite Grades

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chi, Se-Hwan; Kim, Gen-Chan; Jang, Joon-Hee

    2007-01-01

    For a VHTR, graphite oxidation is regarded as a critical phenomenon for degrading the integrity of graphite components under normal or abnormal conditions. The oxidation of a graphite core component can occur by air which may permeate into the primary coolant operation and/or by impurities contained in the He coolant, or by air ingress during a severe accident. It is well known that the oxidation properties of a graphite are highly dependent on the source of raw materials, impurities, microstructures (crystallites, pore structure), and on the processing and environmental parameters, such as the forming methods, the coolant type, moisture and impurity content, temperature, flow rate and the oxygen potential of the coolants. A lot of work has been performed on the oxidation of graphite since the 1960s, and, for example, in the case of the temperature, a widely accepted oxidation model on the effects of a temperature has already been developed. However, in the case of the flow rate, even for its expected effects in a VHTR, for example, as to the expected changes in the bypass flow (10-20 %) during an operation, no systematic works have been performed. In this respect, as a preliminary study, the effects of an air flow rate on the oxidation of NBG-18 and 25 nuclear graphite were investigated

  1. Impact of air pollution control costs on the cost and spatial arrangement of cellulosic biofuel production in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, Colin W; Parker, Nathan C

    2014-02-18

    Air pollution emissions regulation can affect the location, size, and technology choice of potential biofuel production facilities. Difficulty in obtaining air pollutant emission permits and the cost of air pollution control devices have been cited by some fuel producers as barriers to development. This paper expands on the Geospatial Bioenergy Systems Model (GBSM) to evaluate the effect of air pollution control costs on the availability, cost, and distribution of U.S. biofuel production by subjecting potential facility locations within U.S. Clean Air Act nonattainment areas, which exceed thresholds for healthy air quality, to additional costs. This paper compares three scenarios: one with air quality costs included, one without air quality costs, and one in which conversion facilities were prohibited in Clean Air Act nonattainment areas. While air quality regulation may substantially affect local decisions regarding siting or technology choices, their effect on the system as a whole is small. Most biofuel facilities are expected to be sited near to feedstock supplies, which are seldom in nonattainment areas. The average cost per unit of produced energy is less than 1% higher in the scenarios with air quality compliance costs than in scenarios without such costs. When facility construction is prohibited in nonattainment areas, the costs increase by slightly over 1%, due to increases in the distance feedstock is transported to facilities in attainment areas.

  2. An overview of the severe accident research activities within the LACOMERA platform at the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Miassoedov, A.; Alsmeyer, H.; Meyer, L.; Steinbrueck, M.; Tromm, W.

    2006-01-01

    The LACOMERA project at the Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe, Germany, is a 4 year action within the 5th Framework Programme of the EU which started in September 2002. Overall objective of the project is to offer research institutions from the EU member countries and associated states access to four large-scale experimental facilities QUENCH, LIVE, DISCO, and COMET. These facilities can be used to investigate core melt scenarios from the beginning of core degradation to melt formation and relocation in the vessel, possible melt dispersion to the reactor cavity, and finally corium concrete interaction and corium coolability in the reactor cavity. The paper summarises the main results obtained in the following experiments performed up to now. QUENCH-L1: Impact of air ingression on core degradation. The test provides unique data for the investigation of air ingress phenomenology in conditions as representative of a spent fuel pool accident as possible; QUENCH-L2: Boil-off of a flooded bundle. The test is of a generic interest for all reactor types, provided a link between the severe accident and design basis areas, and would deliver oxidation and thermal hydraulic data at high temperatures. DISCO-L1: Thermal hydraulic behaviour of the corium melt dispersion neglecting the chemical effects such as hydrogen generation and combustion. COMET-L1: Long-term 2D concrete ablation in a siliceous concrete cavity at intermediate decay heat power level with a top flooding phase after a phase of dry concrete erosion. COMET-L2: Investigation of long-term melt-concrete interaction of metallic corium in a cylindrical siliceous concrete cavity under dry conditions with decay heat simulation of intermediate power during the first test phase, and subsequently at reduced power during the second test phase. (author)

  3. Pollution. Warning on the future of air quality

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sredojevic, Alexandre

    2014-01-01

    This article comments the results published by INERIS (the French national institute of the industrial environment and risks) and based on the use of its model Chimere which aims at measuring and foreseeing the evolution of air quality. This model simulates the concentrations of pollutants in the air. It is integrated into the national tool of prediction of air quality, PREV'AIR, which studies prospective scenarios of reduction of emissions, and is also part of the SALUT'AIR project which assesses the evolution of atmospheric concentrations of pollutants by 2050 while taking climate change into account. These models notably show the importance of atmospheric circulation over continents. The author also recalls and comments the objectives of the UN Goteborg protocol for 2020

  4. Noninvasive CPAP with face mask: comparison among new air-entrainment masks and the Boussignac valve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mistraletti, Giovanni; Giacomini, Matteo; Sabbatini, Giovanni; Pinciroli, Riccardo; Mantovani, Elena S; Umbrello, Michele; Palmisano, Debora; Formenti, Paolo; Destrebecq, Anne L L; Iapichino, Gaetano

    2013-02-01

    The performances of 2 noninvasive CPAP systems (high flow and low flow air-entrainment masks) were compared to the Boussignac valve in 3 different scenarios. Scenario 1: pneumatic lung simulator with a tachypnea pattern (tidal volume 800 mL at 40 breaths/min). Scenario 2: Ten healthy subjects studied during tidal breaths and tachypnea. Scenario 3: Twenty ICU subjects enrolled for a noninvasive CPAP session. Differences between set and effective CPAP level and F(IO(2)), as well as the lowest airway pressure and the pressure swing around the imposed CPAP level, were analyzed. The lowest airway pressure and swing were correlated to the pressure-time product (area of the airway pressure curve below the CPAP level) measured with the simulator. P(aO(2)) was a subject's further performance index. Lung simulator: Boussignac F(IO(2)) was 0.54, even if supplied with pure oxygen. The air-entrainment masks had higher swing than the Boussignac (P = .007). Pressure-time product correlated better with pressure swing (Spearman correlation coefficient [ρ] = 0.97) than with lowest airway pressure (ρ = 0.92). In healthy subjects, the high-flow air-entrainment mask showed lower difference between set and effective F(IO(2)) (P mask had lower swing than the Boussignac valve (P = .03) with similar P(aO(2)) increase. High-flow air-entrainment mask showed the best performance in human subjects. During high flow demand, the Boussignac valve delivered lower than expected F(IO(2)) and showed higher dynamic hyper-pressurization than the air-entrainment masks. © 2013 Daedalus Enterprises.

  5. Paloma co-op rehabilitation case study examining the challenges to energy upgrades

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Legge, C.; Schwartz, J. [JRS Enginerring LTd., Burnaby, (Canada)

    2010-07-01

    Paloma Cooperative consists of two wood-frame multi-unit residential buildings located in the Commercial Drive area of Vancouver, British Columbia. In 2006, investigations showed that the balconies were severely deteriorated due to water ingress. The complex was deemed to have suffered from a premature building failure. A complete building envelope remediation was necessary. This paper presented the challenges of incorporating energy efficient and sustainable design upgrades during a rehabilitation project, using the Paloma Cooperative as a case study. The various design options, the technical limitations, the financial analysis, the modelling assumptions and the involvement of third party lenders were presented. Initial air-leakage rates were measured and an energy modeling was completed using RETScreen software. Three scenarios were modeled to determine what effect different energy upgrades would have on the energy savings. This paper showed that cost was the biggest challenge faced by the Paloma Cooperative energy upgrade.

  6. Classifying Scenarios in a Product Design Process: a study to achieve automated scenario generation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Anggreeni, Irene; van der Voort, Mascha C.; van Houten, F.J.A.M.; Miedema, J.; Lutters, D.

    2008-01-01

    This paper explains the possible uses of scenarios in product design. A scenario classification is proposed as a framework to create, use and reuse different types of scenarios in a product design process. Our aims are three-fold: (1) to obtain a better view on the extent to which scenarios can be

  7. Scenarios for the assessment of urban exposures after radioactive contamination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Silva, D.N.G.; Guimarães, J.R.D.; Rochedo, E.R.R.

    2015-01-01

    Accidents involving radioactive material are not frequent but may include releases of radionuclides to the air, land or waterways. These releases are usually uncontrollable and may lead to doses in the public in excess of the reference levels established by regulations defined by the national regulatory agencies of each country. Although they had occurred sporadically since the last century, it was observed that, after the emergency phase, the public concern is enhanced when they feel that there is an unpreparedness of authorities responsible for remediation actions, due to the lack of definition of strategies to be adopted in the long term after such events. The aim of this work is to describe reference urban scenarios, considering the characteristics observed in residential and free access areas of urban centers. These scenarios were developed based on the counties surrounding the Brazilian nuclear power plant. Considering the counties within 50 km from the nuclear power plant, nine belong to the state of Rio de Janeiro and seven belong to São Paulo state; the highest population densities were observed in five counties of Rio de Janeiro. Based on the different types of residences and outdoor areas observed in these 16 counties, six reference scenarios for urban areas were developed including areas comprised by four types of residential houses (with low, medium and high shielding building material and houses in a row), apartments in buildings, and park areas with lawn and trees. The characteristics of each of these scenarios were raised through Google Earth images considering 1 km 2 of different locations comprised by each type of area defined. In a next step, the information obtained in each scenario shall be used in computer simulations to characterize the effects and consequences on public exposure of the application of decontamination procedures. (authors)

  8. Potential effects of using biodiesel in road-traffic on air quality over the Porto urban area, Portugal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Isabel; Monteiro, Alexandra; Lopes, Myriam

    2016-01-01

    This work aims to assess the impacts of biodiesel blends use in road-traffic on air quality. In this frame, the air quality numerical modelling system WRF-EURAD was applied over Portugal and the Porto urban area, forced by two emission scenarios (including CO, NOx, PM10, PM2.5, NMVOC, formaldehyde, acetaldehyde, acrolein and benzene): a reference scenario, without biofuels, and a scenario where a B20 fuel (20% biodiesel/80% diesel, v/v) is used by the diesel vehicle fleet. Regarding carbonyl compounds, emission scenarios pointed out that B20 fuel can promote an increase of 20% on formaldehyde, acetaldehyde and acrolein emissions, leading to increments on equivalent ozone production. On the other hand, through the air quality modelling exercise, it was verified that the use of B20 helps in controlling air pollution, improving CO and NO2 concentrations in urban airshed in about 20% and 10%, respectively, taking into account a regional simulation grid. However, according to the urban scale simulation, NO2 levels can increase in about 1%, due to the use of B20, over the Porto urban area. For the remaining studied pollutants, namely PM10 and PM2.5, mean concentrations will be reduced all over the territory, however in a negligible amount of <1%.

  9. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Yunha; Shindell, Drew T.; Faluvegi, Greg; Pinder, Rob W.

    2016-04-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) is reduced by ˜ 2 µg m-3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ˜ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (˜ 74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is ˜ 0.04 W m-2 over the globe, and ˜ 0.8 W m-2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22 W m-2 due to positive aerosol direct and indirect forcing

  10. Potential Impact of a US Climate Policy and Air Quality Regulations on Future Air Quality and Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Y. H.; Faluvegi, Gregory S.

    2016-01-01

    We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50% below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation) for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration), and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 micron PM(sub 2:5) is reduced by 2 approximately µg/m(sup -3) on average over the USA, and surface ozone by approximately 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM(sub 2:5) reduction approximately (74 200 lives saved). The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter) more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone), leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF) over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is approximately 0.04 W m(sup -2) over the globe, and approximately 0.8 W m(sup -2) over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US

  11. How Will Air Quality Change in South Asia by 2050?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Rajesh; Barth, Mary C.; Pfister, G. G.; Delle Monache, L.; Lamarque, J. F.; Archer-Nicholls, S.; Tilmes, S.; Ghude, S. D.; Wiedinmyer, C.; Naja, M.; Walters, S.

    2018-02-01

    Exposure to unhealthy air causes millions of premature deaths and damages crops sufficient to feed a large portion of the South Asian population every year. However, little is known about how future air quality in South Asia will respond to changing human activities. Here we examine the combined effect of changes in climate and air pollutant emissions projected by the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 and RCP6.0 on air quality of South Asia in 2050 using a state-of-the-science Nested Regional Climate model with Chemistry (NRCM-Chem). RCP8.5 and RCP6.0 are selected to represent scenarios of highest and lowest air pollution in South Asia by 2050. NRCM-Chem shows the ability to capture observed key features of variability in meteorological parameters, ozone and related gases, and aerosols. NRCM-Chem results show that surface ozone and particulate matter of less than 2.5 μm in diameter will increase significantly by midcentury in South Asia under the RCP8.5 but remain similar to present day under RCP6.0. No RCP suggest an improvement in air pollution in South Asia by midcentury. Under RCP8.5, the frequency of air pollution events is predicted to increase by 20-120 days per year in 2050 compared to the present-day conditions, with particulate matter of less than 2.5 μm in diameter predicted to breach the World Health Organization ambient air quality guidelines on an almost daily basis in many parts of South Asia. These results indicate that while the RCP scenarios project a global improvement in air quality, they generally result in degrading air quality in South Asia.

  12. South Korean energy scenarios show how nuclear power can reduce future energy and environmental costs

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2014-01-01

    South Korea is an important case study for understanding the future role of nuclear power in countries with on-going economic growth, and limited renewable energy resources. We compared quantitatively the sustainability of two ‘future-mapping’ exercises (the ‘Governmental’ scenario, which relies on fossil fuels, and the Greenpeace scenario, which emphasises renewable energy and excludes nuclear power). The comparison was based on a range of environmental and technological perspectives, and contrasted against two additional nuclear scenarios that instead envisage a dominant role for nuclear energy. Sustainability metrics included energy costs, external costs (greenhouse-gas emissions, air pollutants, land transformation, water consumption and discharge, and safety) and additional costs. The nuclear-centred scenarios yielded the lowest total cost per unit of final energy consumption by 2050 ($14.37 GJ −1 ), whereas the Greenpeace scenario has the highest ($25.36 GJ −1 ). We used probabilistic simulations based on multi-factor distributional sampling of impact and cost metrics to estimate the overlapping likelihoods among scenarios to understand the effect of parameter uncertainty on the integrated recommendations. Our simulation modelling implies that, despite inherent uncertainties, pursuing a large-scale expansion of nuclear-power capacity offers the most sustainable pathway for South Korea, and that adopting a nuclear-free pathway will be more costly and produce more greenhouse-gas emissions. - Highlights: • Nuclear power has a key role to play in mitigating greenhouse-gas emissions. • The Greenpeace scenario has higher total external cost than the nuclear scenarios. • The nuclear-centred scenarios offer the most sustainable option for South Korea. • The similar conclusions are likely to apply to other Asian countries

  13. Climate and air quality trade-offs in altering ship fuel sulfur content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, A.-I.; Laakso, A.; Schmidt, A.; Kokkola, H.; Kuokkanen, T.; Pietikäinen, J.-P.; Kerminen, V.-M.; Lehtinen, K. E. J.; Laakso, L.; Korhonen, H.

    2013-08-01

    Aerosol particles from shipping emissions both cool the climate and cause adverse health effects. The cooling effect is, however, declining because of shipping emission controls aiming to improve air quality. We used an aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ to test whether by altering ship fuel sulfur content, the present-day aerosol-induced cooling effect from shipping could be preserved while at the same time reducing premature mortality rates related to shipping emissions. We compared the climate and health effects of a present-day shipping emission scenario with (1) a simulation with strict emission controls in the coastal waters (ship fuel sulfur content of 0.1%) and twofold ship fuel sulfur content compared to current global average of 2.7% elsewhere; and (2) a scenario with global strict shipping emission controls (ship fuel sulfur content of 0.1% in coastal waters and 0.5% elsewhere) roughly corresponding to international agreements to be enforced by the year 2020. Scenario 1 had a slightly stronger aerosol-induced radiative flux perturbation (RFP) from shipping than the present-day scenario (-0.43 W m-2 vs. -0.39 W m-2) while reducing premature mortality from shipping by 69% (globally 34 900 deaths avoided per year). Scenario 2 decreased the RFP to -0.06 W m-2 and annual deaths by 96% (globally 48 200 deaths avoided per year) compared to present-day. A small difference in radiative effect (global mean of 0.04 W m-2) in the coastal regions between Scenario 1 and the present-day scenario imply that shipping emission regulation in the existing emission control areas should not be removed in hope of climate cooling. Our results show that the cooling effect of present-day emissions could be retained with simultaneous notable improvements in air quality, even though the shipping emissions from the open ocean clearly have a significant effect on continental air quality. However, increasing ship fuel sulfur content in the open ocean would violate existing

  14. U.S. ozone air quality under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racherla, Pavan N; Adams, Peter J

    2009-02-01

    We examined future ozone (O3) air quality in the United States (U.S.) under changing climate and anthropogenic emissions worldwide by performing global climate-chemistry simulations, utilizing various combinations of present (1990s) and future (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 2050s) climates, and present and future (2050s; IPCC SRES A2 and B1) anthropogenic emissions. The A2 climate scenario is employed here because it lies at the upper extreme of projected climate change for the 21st century. To examine the sensitivity of U.S. O3 to regional emissions increases (decreases), the IPCC SRES A2 and B1 scenarios, which have overall higher and lower O3-precursor emissions for the U.S., respectively, have been chosen. We find that climate change, by itself, significantly worsens the severity and frequency of high-O3 events ("episodes") over most locations in the U.S., with relatively small changes in average O3 air quality. These high-O3 increases due to climate change alone will erode moderately the gains made under a U.S. emissions reduction scenario (e.g., B1). The effect of climate change on high- and average-O3 increases with anthropogenic emissions. Insofar as average O3 air quality is concerned, changes in U.S. anthropogenic emissions will play the most important role in attaining (or not) near-term U.S. O3 air quality standards. However, policy makers must plan appropriately for O3 background increases due to projected increases in global CH4 abundance and non-U.S. anthropogenic emissions, as well as potential local enhancements that they could cause. These findings provide strong incentives for more-than-planned emissions reductions at locations that are currently O3-nonattainment.

  15. Comparison of the results of climate change impact assessment between RCP8.5 and SSP2 scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, D. K.; Park, J. H.; Park, C.; Kim, S.

    2017-12-01

    Climate change scenarios are mainly published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and include SRES (Special Report on Emission Scenario) scenarios (IPCC Third Report), RCP (Representative Concentration Pathways) scenarios (IPCC 5th Report), and SSP (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) scenarios. Currently widely used RCP scenarios are based on how future greenhouse gas concentrations will change. In contrast, SSP scenarios are that predict how climate change will change in response to socio-economic indicators such as population, economy, land use, and energy change. In this study, based on RCP 8.5 climate data, we developed a new Korean scenario using the future social and economic scenarios of SSP2. In the development of the scenario, not only Korea's emissions but also China and Japan's emissions were considered in terms of space. In addition, GHG emissions and air pollutant emissions were taken into consideration. Using the newly developed scenarios, the impacts assessments of the forest were evaluated and the impacts were evaluated using the RCP scenarios. The average precipitation is similar to the SSP2 scenario and the RCP8.5 scenario, but the SSP2 scenario shows the maximum value is lower than RCP8.5 scenario. This is because the SSP2 scenario simulates the summer precipitation weakly. The temperature distribution is similar for both scenarios, and it can be seen that the average temperature in the 2090s is higher than that in the 2050s. At present, forest net primary productivity of Korea is 693 tC/km2, and it is 679 tC/km2 when SSP2 scenario is applied. Also, the damage of forest by ozone is about 4.1-5.1%. On the other hand, when SSP2 scenario is applied, the forest net primary productivity of Korea is 607 tC/km2 and the forest net primary productivity of RCP8.5 scenario is 657 tC/km2. The analysis shows that the damage caused by climate change is reduced by 14.2% for the SSP2 scenario and 6.9% for the RCP8.5 scenario. The damage caused

  16. Scenario planning and nanotechnological futures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Farber, Darryl; Lakhtakia, Akhlesh

    2009-01-01

    Scenario planning may assist us in harnessing the benefits of nanotechnology and managing the associated risks for the good of the society. Scenario planning is a way to describe the present state of the world and develop several hypotheses about the future of the world, thereby enabling discussions about how the world ought to be. Scenario planning thus is not only a tool for learning and foresight, but also for leadership. Informed decision making by experts and political leaders becomes possible, while simultaneously allaying the public's perception of the risks of new and emerging technologies such as nanotechnology. Two scenarios of the societal impact of nanotechnology are the mixed-signals scenario and the confluence scenario. Technoscientists have major roles to play in both scenarios.

  17. Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines (Final Report)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA announced the availability of the final report, Land-Use Scenarios: National-Scale Housing-Density Scenarios Consistent with Climate Change Storylines. This report describes the scenarios and models used to generate national-scale housing density scenarios for the con...

  18. Consequential life cycle air emissions externalities for plug-in electric vehicles in the PJM interconnection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weis, Allison; Jaramillo, Paulina; Michalek, Jeremy

    2016-02-01

    We perform a consequential life cycle analysis of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and conventional gasoline vehicles in the PJM interconnection using a detailed, normative optimization model of the PJM electricity grid that captures the change in power plant operations and related emissions due to vehicle charging. We estimate and monetize the resulting human health and environmental damages from life cycle air emissions for each vehicle technology. We model PJM using the most recent data available (2010) as well as projections of the PJM grid in 2018 and a hypothetical scenario with increased wind penetration. We assess a range of sensitivity cases to verify the robustness of our results. We find that PEVs have higher life cycle air emissions damages than gasoline HEVs in the recent grid scenario, which has a high percentage of coal generation on the margin. In particular, battery electric vehicles with large battery capacity can produce two to three times as much air emissions damage as gasoline HEVs, depending on charge timing. In our future 2018 grid scenarios that account for predicted coal plant retirements, PEVs would produce air emissions damages comparable to or slightly lower than HEVs.

  19. Consequential life cycle air emissions externalities for plug-in electric vehicles in the PJM interconnection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Weis, Allison; Jaramillo, Paulina; Michalek, Jeremy

    2016-01-01

    We perform a consequential life cycle analysis of plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs), hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), and conventional gasoline vehicles in the PJM interconnection using a detailed, normative optimization model of the PJM electricity grid that captures the change in power plant operations and related emissions due to vehicle charging. We estimate and monetize the resulting human health and environmental damages from life cycle air emissions for each vehicle technology. We model PJM using the most recent data available (2010) as well as projections of the PJM grid in 2018 and a hypothetical scenario with increased wind penetration. We assess a range of sensitivity cases to verify the robustness of our results. We find that PEVs have higher life cycle air emissions damages than gasoline HEVs in the recent grid scenario, which has a high percentage of coal generation on the margin. In particular, battery electric vehicles with large battery capacity can produce two to three times as much air emissions damage as gasoline HEVs, depending on charge timing. In our future 2018 grid scenarios that account for predicted coal plant retirements, PEVs would produce air emissions damages comparable to or slightly lower than HEVs. (letter)

  20. Free-beam soliton self-compression in air

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voronin, A. A.; Mitrofanov, A. V.; Sidorov-Biryukov, D. A.; Fedotov, A. B.; Pugžlys, A.; Panchenko, V. Ya; Shumakova, V.; Ališauskas, S.; Baltuška, A.; Zheltikov, A. M.

    2018-02-01

    We identify a physical scenario whereby soliton transients generated in freely propagating laser beams within the regions of anomalous dispersion in air can be compressed as a part of their free-beam spatiotemporal evolution to yield few-cycle mid- and long-wavelength-infrared field waveforms, whose peak power is substantially higher than the peak power of the input pulses. We show that this free-beam soliton self-compression scenario does not require ionization or laser-induced filamentation, enabling high-throughput self-compression of mid- and long-wavelength-infrared laser pulses within a broad range of peak powers from tens of gigawatts up to the terawatt level. We also demonstrate that this method of pulse compression can be extended to long-range propagation, providing self-compression of high-peak-power laser pulses in atmospheric air within propagation ranges as long as hundreds of meters, suggesting new ways towards longer-range standoff detection and remote sensing.

  1. Could Expanded Freight Rail Reduce Air Pollution from Trucks?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bickford, E. E.; Holloway, T.; Johnston, M.

    2010-12-01

    Cars, trucks and trains are a significant source of emissions that impact both climate and air quality on regional to global scales. Diesel vehicles, most used for freight transport, account for 42% of on-road nitrogen oxide emissions, 58% of on-road fine particulate emissions, and 21% of on-road carbon dioxide emissions. With freight tonnage projected to increase 28% by 2018, and freight trucks the fastest growing source of transportation emissions, we evaluate the potential for increased rail capacity to reduce the environmental impacts of trucks. Most widely available mobile source emissions inventories contain insufficient spatial detail to quantify realistic emission scenario options, and none to date have been linked with commodity flow information in a manner appropriate to consider the true potential of rail substitution. To support a truck-to-rail analysis, and other policy assessments requiring roadway-by-roadway analysis, we have developed a freight emissions inventory for the Upper Midwest based on the Federal Highway Administration’s Freight Analysis Framework version 2.2 and the Environmental Protection Agency’s on-road emissions model, Mobile6.2. Using a Geographical Information System (GIS), we developed emissions scenarios for truck-to-rail modal shifts where 95% of freight tonnage on trips longer than 400 miles is shifted off of trucks and onto railways. Scenarios will be analyzed with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) regional model to assess air quality impacts of associated changes. By using well-respected transportation data and realistic assumptions, results from this study have the potential to inform decisions on transportation sustainability, carbon management, public health, and air quality.

  2. The effect of future outdoor air pollution on human health and the contribution of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, R.; West, J. J.; Lamarque, J.; Shindell, D.; Collins, W.; Dalsoren, S. B.; Faluvegi, G. S.; Folberth, G.; Horowitz, L. W.; Nagashima, T.; Naik, V.; Rumbold, S.; Skeie, R.; Sudo, K.; Takemura, T.; Bergmann, D. J.; Cameron-Smith, P. J.; Cionni, I.; Doherty, R. M.; Eyring, V.; Josse, B.; MacKenzie, I. A.; Plummer, D.; Righi, M.; Stevenson, D. S.; Strode, S. A.; Szopa, S.; Zeng, G.

    2013-12-01

    At present, exposure to outdoor air pollution from ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) causes over 2 million deaths per year, due to respiratory and cardiovascular diseases and lung cancer. Future ambient concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 will be affected by both air pollutant emissions and climate change. Here we estimate the potential impact of future outdoor air pollution on premature human mortality, and isolate the contribution of future climate change due to its effect on air quality. We use modeled present-day (2000) and future global ozone and PM2.5 concentrations from simulations with an ensemble of chemistry-climate models from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP). Future air pollution was modeled for global greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions in the four IPCC AR5 Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, for 2030, 2050 and 2100. All model outputs are regridded to a common 0.5°x0.5° horizontal resolution. Future premature mortality is estimated for each RCP scenario and year based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000. Using a health impact function, changes in concentrations for each RCP scenario are combined with future population and cause-specific baseline mortality rates as projected by a single independent scenario in which the global incidence of cardiopulmonary diseases is expected to increase. The effect of climate change is isolated by considering the difference between air pollutant concentrations from simulations with 2000 emissions and a future year climate and simulations with 2000 emissions and climate. Uncertainties in the results reflect the uncertainty in the concentration-response function and that associated with variability among models. Few previous studies have quantified the effects of future climate change on global human health via changes in air quality, and this is the first such study to use an ensemble of global models.

  3. Air quality impacts of projections of natural gas-fired distributed generation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horne, Jeremy R.; Carreras-Sospedra, Marc; Dabdub, Donald; Lemar, Paul; Nopmongcol, Uarporn; Shah, Tejas; Yarwood, Greg; Young, David; Shaw, Stephanie L.; Knipping, Eladio M.

    2017-11-01

    This study assesses the potential impacts on emissions and air quality from the increased adoption of natural gas-fired distributed generation of electricity (DG), including displacement of power from central power generation, in the contiguous United States. The study includes four major tasks: (1) modeling of distributed generation market penetration; (2) modeling of central power generation systems; (3) modeling of spatially and temporally resolved emissions; and (4) photochemical grid modeling to evaluate the potential air quality impacts of increased DG penetration, which includes both power-only DG and combined heat and power (CHP) units, for 2030. Low and high DG penetration scenarios estimate the largest penetration of future DG units in three regions - New England, New York, and California. Projections of DG penetration in the contiguous United States estimate 6.3 GW and 24 GW of market adoption in 2030 for the low DG penetration and high DG penetration scenarios, respectively. High DG penetration (all of which is natural gas-fired) serves to offset 8 GW of new natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) units, and 19 GW of solar photovoltaic (PV) installations by 2030. In all scenarios, air quality in the central United States and the northwest remains unaffected as there is little to no DG penetration in those states. California and several states in the northeast are the most impacted by emissions from DG units. Peak increases in maximum daily 8-h average ozone concentrations exceed 5 ppb, which may impede attainment of ambient air quality standards. Overall, air quality impacts from DG vary greatly based on meteorological conditions, proximity to emissions sources, the number and type of DG installations, and the emissions factors used for DG units.

  4. A new scenario framework for Climate Change Research: scenario matrix architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Vuuren, D.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X; Kriegler, E.; O'Neill, B.C.; Ebi, K.L.; Riahi, K.; Carter, T.R.; Edmonds, J.; Hallegatte, S.; Kram, T.; Mathur, R.; Winkler, H.

    2014-01-01

    This paper describes the scenario matrix architecture that underlies a framework for developing new scenarios for climate change research. The matrix architecture facilitates addressing key questions related to current climate research and policy-making: identifying the effectiveness of different

  5. EPHECT I: European household survey on domestic use of consumer products and development of worst-case scenarios for daily use.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitroulopoulou, C; Lucica, E; Johnson, A; Ashmore, M R; Sakellaris, I; Stranger, M; Goelen, E

    2015-12-01

    Consumer products are frequently and regularly used in the domestic environment. Realistic estimates for product use are required for exposure modelling and health risk assessment. This paper provides significant data that can be used as input for such modelling studies. A European survey was conducted, within the framework of the DG Sanco-funded EPHECT project, on the household use of 15 consumer products. These products are all-purpose cleaners, kitchen cleaners, floor cleaners, glass and window cleaners, bathroom cleaners, furniture and floor polish products, combustible air fresheners, spray air fresheners, electric air fresheners, passive air fresheners, coating products for leather and textiles, hair styling products, spray deodorants and perfumes. The analysis of the results from the household survey (1st phase) focused on identifying consumer behaviour patterns (selection criteria, frequency of use, quantities, period of use and ventilation conditions during product use). This can provide valuable input to modelling studies, as this information is not reported in the open literature. The above results were further analysed (2nd phase), to provide the basis for the development of 'most representative worst-case scenarios' regarding the use of the 15 products by home-based population groups (housekeepers and retired people), in four geographical regions in Europe. These scenarios will be used for the exposure and health risk assessment within the EPHECT project. To the best of our knowledge, it is the first time that daily worst-case scenarios are presented in the scientific published literature concerning the use of a wide range of 15 consumer products across Europe. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Method to increase the safety of a final storage site in a salt cavern filled with solidified radioactive waste with regard to unforeseen rock movements and/or water ingress into cavities of the final storage site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koester, R.; Rudolph, G.; Kroebel, R.

    1986-01-01

    The wastes of weak or average radio-activity (e.g. T) are stored in barrels in a salt mine. In order to prevent leaching of the waste after the ingress of water into the salt mine, the intermediate spaces between the barrels are filled with a concrete grout. This grout consists of a water/bentonite/cement mixture, to which sand may be added, and which hardens. It forms a monolithic block. (orig./PW)

  7. Method to increase the safety of a final storage site in a salt cavern filled with solidified radioactive waste with regard to unforeseen rock movements and/or water ingress into cavities of the final storage site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koester, R.; Rudolph, G.; Kroebel, R.

    1980-01-01

    The wastes of weak or average radio-activity (e.g. T) are stored in barrels in a salt mine. In order to prevent leaching of the waste after the ingress of water into the salt mine, the intermediate spaces between the barrels are filled with a concrete grout. This grout consists of a water/bentonite/cement mixture, to which sand may be added, and which hardens. It forms a monolithic block. (DG) [de

  8. Strategic Scenario Construction Made Easy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Duus, Henrik Johannsen

    2016-01-01

    insights from the area of strategic forecasting (of which scenario planning is a proper subset) and experiences gained from a recent course in that area to develop a simpler, more direct, hands-on method for scenario construction and to provide several ideas for scenario construction that can be used......Scenario planning is a well-known way to develop corporate strategy by creating multiple images of alternative futures. Yet although scenario planning grew from very hands-on strategy development efforts in the military and from operations research dedicated to solving practical problems, the use...... of scenarios in business has, in many cases, remained a cumbersome affair. Very often a large group of consultants, employees and staff is involved in the development of scenarios and strategies, thus making the whole process expensive in terms of time, money and human resources. In response, this article uses...

  9. Scenario? Guilty!

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kyng, Morten

    1992-01-01

    Robert Campbell categorizes the word "scenario" as a buzzword, identifies four major uses within HCI and suggests that we adopt new terms differentiating these four uses of the word. My first reaction to reading the article was definitely positive, but rereading it gave me enough second thoughts...... to warrant a response. I should probably confess that I searched my latest paper for the word "scenario" and found eight occurrences, none of which fell in the categories described by Campbell....

  10. Oxidation Resistant Graphite Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W. Windes; R. Smith

    2014-07-01

    The Very High Temperature Reactor (VHTR) Graphite Research and Development Program is investigating doped nuclear graphite grades exhibiting oxidation resistance. During a oxygen ingress accident the oxidation rates of the high temperature graphite core region would be extremely high resulting in significant structural damage to the core. Reducing the oxidation rate of the graphite core material would reduce the structural effects and keep the core integrity intact during any air-ingress accident. Oxidation testing of graphite doped with oxidation resistant material is being conducted to determine the extent of oxidation rate reduction. Nuclear grade graphite doped with varying levels of Boron-Carbide (B4C) was oxidized in air at nominal 740°C at 10/90% (air/He) and 100% air. The oxidation rates of the boronated and unboronated graphite grade were compared. With increasing boron-carbide content (up to 6 vol%) the oxidation rate was observed to have a 20 fold reduction from unboronated graphite. Visual inspection and uniformity of oxidation across the surface of the specimens were conducted. Future work to determine the remaining mechanical strength as well as graphite grades with SiC doped material are discussed.

  11. Learning from global emissions scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    O'Neill, Brian C; Nakicenovic, Nebojsa

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios of global greenhouse gas emissions have played a key role in climate change analysis for over twenty years. Currently, several research communities are organizing to undertake a new round of scenario development in the lead-up to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). To help inform this process, we assess a number of past efforts to develop and learn from sets of global greenhouse gas emissions scenarios. We conclude that while emissions scenario exercises have likely had substantial benefits for participating modeling teams and produced insights from individual models, learning from the exercises taken as a whole has been more limited. Model comparison exercises have typically focused on the production of large numbers of scenarios while investing little in assessing the results or the production process, perhaps on the assumption that later assessment efforts could play this role. However, much of this assessment potential remains untapped. Efforts such as scenario-related chapters of IPCC reports have been most informative when they have gone to extra lengths to carry out more specific comparison exercises, but in general these assessments do not have the remit or resources to carry out the kind of detailed analysis of scenario results necessary for drawing the most useful conclusions. We recommend that scenario comparison exercises build-in time and resources for assessing scenario results in more detail at the time when they are produced, that these exercises focus on more specific questions to improve the prospects for learning, and that additional scenario assessments are carried out separately from production exercises. We also discuss the obstacles to better assessment that might exist, and how they might be overcome. Finally, we recommend that future work include much greater emphasis on understanding how scenarios are actually used, as a guide to improving scenario production.

  12. AIR QUALITY DETERIORATION IN TEHRAN DUE TO MOTORCYCLES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Shafiepour and H. Kamalan

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Since there is a rise of motorcycles population as well as other motor vehicles, it seems that air Pollution deterioration should be studied as one of its environmental impacts. The main objective of this study was to develop a number of scenarios in order to determine the amount of Tehran's air pollution attributable to motorcycles and select the best and the most probable case to be recommended for implementation. The first step was to collect data such as the number of active motorcycles, daily traffic volume, average traveling speed and actual emission factors. For this purpose, a detailed questionnaire was designed to be completed by field surveys and measurements. The collected data were compared with traffic volume data, manufacturing statistics and the latest production capacity forecast in this field. Finally, with this data and emission factors for each type of motorcycle, an emissions inventory model was chosen to provide annual emissions from motorcycles in Tehran in different scenarios. The results showed that in 2002, there has been about 450'000 active motorcycles (4-stroke 58%, 2-stroke 28%, and moped 14% with average speed of 40 km/h and average mileage of 110 km/d. Five scenarios were developed. The best scenario was "Changing all motorcycles to 4-strokes under EU-97 standard" which would result in reduction of NMVOC by 75%, CO by 35% and PM10 by 88%.

  13. Impact of land use on urban mobility patterns, emissions and air quality in a Portuguese medium-sized city.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bandeira, Jorge M; Coelho, Margarida C; Sá, Maria Elisa; Tavares, Richard; Borrego, Carlos

    2011-02-15

    The main objective of this work was to evaluate the impact of urban development trends in mobility patterns of a medium sized Portuguese city and air quality consequences, using a sequential modeling process, comprising i) land use and transportation, TRANUS model; ii) road traffic air pollutants emissions, TREM model and; iii) air quality, TAPM model. This integrated methodology was applied to a medium sized Portuguese city. In order to evaluate the implementation of the methodology, a preliminary study was performed, which consisted on the comparison of modeled mobility patterns and CO and PM(10) concentrations with measured data used in the definition of the current scenario. The comparison between modeled and monitored mobility patterns at the morning peak hour for a weekday showed an RMSE of 31%. Regarding CO concentrations, an underestimation of the modeled results was observed. Nevertheless, the modeled PM(10) concentrations were consistent with the monitored data. Overall, the results showed a reasonable consistency of the modeled data, which allowed the use of the integrated modeling system for the study scenarios. The future scenarios consisted on the definition of different mobility patterns and vehicle technology characteristics, according to two main developing trends: (1) "car pooling" scenario, which imposes a mean occupancy rate of 3 passengers by vehicle and (2) the "Euro 6" scenario, which establishes that all vehicles accomplish at least the Euro 6 standard technology. Reductions of 54% and 83% for CO, 44% and 95% for PM(10), 44% and 87% for VOC and 44% and 79% for NO(x) emissions were observed in scenarios 1 and 2, respectively. Concerning air quality, a reduction of about 100 μg m(-3) of CO annual average concentration was observed in both scenarios. The results of PM(10) annual concentrations showed a reduction of 1.35 μg m(-3) and 2.7 μg m(-3) for scenarios 1 and 2 respectively. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Air quality: how to assess air quality management policies on a short and on a long term? The integration of the climate factor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Prevot, Aurelie

    2014-01-01

    This document presents the activities and works performed by the INERIS Institute in the development of tools for the assessment of air quality management policies including the climate factor. This comprises the development of simulations within the frame of the SALUT'AIR project, and also within the frame of the reviewing of the European policy on air quality (directives 2008/50/CE on ambient air quality and 2001/81/CE on national limits of emissions of some pollutants). The CHIMERE model of chemistry and transport is one of these tools. Simulations are performed to analyse the impact of scenarios of air quality management on a short term, in terms of pollutant emissions, pollutant concentration, and particle concentrations. The integration of a climate factor is justified by the existence of interactions between climate and air quality

  15. Effect of Additional Incentives for Aviation Biofuels: Results from the Biomass Scenario Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Vimmerstedt, Laura J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Newes, Emily K [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2017-12-05

    The National Renewable Energy Laboratory supported the Department of Energy, Bioenergy Technologies Office, with analysis of alternative jet fuels in collaboration with the U.S. Department of Transportation, Federal Aviation Administration. Airlines for America requested additional exploratory scenarios within FAA analytic framework. Airlines for America requested additional analysis using the same analytic framework, the Biomass Scenario Model. The results were presented at a public working meeting of the California Air Resources Board on including alternative jet fuel in the Low Carbon Fuel Standard on March 17, 2017 (https://www.arb.ca.gov/fuels/lcfs/lcfs_meetings/lcfs_meetings.htm). This presentation clarifies and annotates the slides from the public working meeting, and provides a link to the full data set. NREL does not advocate for or against the policies analyzed in this study.

  16. Developing a Decision-Support-Tool for an Air Taxi Service in Western Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Wee, G.P.; Van Nes, R.; Van Duin, J.H.R.; Sengers, P.; Ghijs, S.S.A.

    2008-01-01

    This paper is a research proposal to develop a tool to analyze logistic concepts of the air taxi service of Aeolus Aviation in different scenarios. Based on this analysis recommendations can be done for a suitable logistic concept for Aeolus. Based on background analysis of the air taxi service

  17. Climate change scenarios over the Mediterranean Basin; Scenari di cambiamento climatico sul bacino del Mediterraneo

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Casaioli, Marco; Sciortino, Maurizio [ENEA, Centro Ricerche Casaccia, Rome (Italy). Dipt. Ambiente

    1997-11-01

    The results of climatic simulation over the Mediterranean Basin made available by major climate research centres, have been analyzed with the purposes of defining possible future climate scenarios. The validation of modelling results of present climate with observed climatology makes possible to assess capabilities and limitations of the General Circulation Models over the area under consideration. The evaluation of climate change scenarios in conditions of doubling atmospheric concentration of CO 2 gives indications on the expected magnitude of variation of temperature and precipitation. The results available agree to indicate a possible warming of air temperature but as far as concerned precipitation there is still no consensus between the climate projections produced by the different models considered in this study.

  18. Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution Control Measures for Megacities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, R.; Theloke, J.; Denier-van-der-Gon, H.; Kugler, U.; Kampffmeyer, T.; Roos, J.; Torras, S.

    2012-04-01

    Air pollution in large cities is still a matter of concern. Especially the concentration of fine particles (PM10 and PM2.5) is largest in large cities leading to severe health impacts. Furthermore the PM10 thresholds of the EU Air Quality Directive are frequently exceeded. Thus the question arises, whether the initiated policies and measures for mitigating air pollution are sufficient to meet the air quality targets and - if not - which efficient further pollution mitigation measures exist. These questions have been addressed in the EU research project MEGAPOLI for the four European megacities respectively agglomerations London, Paris, Rhine-Ruhr area and Po valley. Firstly, a reference scenario of future activities and emissions has been compiled for the megacities for the years 2020, 2030 and 2050 for all relevant air pollutants (CO, NH3, NMVOC, NOx, PM10, PM2.5 and SO2) and greenhouse gases (CO2, CH4 and N2O). The reference scenario takes into account as well population changes as technical progress and economic growth. As pollution flowing in from outside the city is about as important as pollution caused by emissions in the city, the analysis covers the whole of Europe and not only the city area. Emissions are then transformed into concentrations using atmospheric models. The higher concentrations in cities were estimated with a newly developed 'urban increment' model. Results show, that in the megacities the limits of the Air Quality Directive (2008/50/EC) will be exceeded. Thus additional efforts are necessary to reduce emissions further. Thus, a number of further measures (not implemented in current legislation) were selected and assessed. These included mitigation options for road transport, other mobile sources, large combustion plants, small and medium combustion plants and industry. For each measure and in addition for various bundles of measures a cost-benefit analysis has been carried out. Benefits (avoided health risks and climate change risks) have

  19. Contributions of mobile, stationary and biogenic sources to air pollution in the Amazon rainforest: a numerical study with the WRF-Chem model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abou Rafee, Sameh A.; Martins, Leila D.; Kawashima, Ana B.; Almeida, Daniela S.; Morais, Marcos V. B.; Souza, Rita V. A.; Oliveira, Maria B. L.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.; Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Urbina, Viviana; Freitas, Edmilson D.; Martin, Scot T.; Martins, Jorge A.

    2017-06-01

    This paper evaluates the contributions of the emissions from mobile, stationary and biogenic sources on air pollution in the Amazon rainforest by using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. The analyzed air pollutants were CO, NOx, SO2, O3, PM2. 5, PM10 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs). Five scenarios were defined in order to evaluate the emissions by biogenic, mobile and stationary sources, as well as a future scenario to assess the potential air quality impact of doubled anthropogenic emissions. The stationary sources explain the highest concentrations for all air pollutants evaluated, except for CO, for which the mobile sources are predominant. The anthropogenic sources considered resulted an increasing in the spatial peak-temporal average concentrations of pollutants in 3 to 2780 times in relation to those with only biogenic sources. The future scenario showed an increase in the range of 3 to 62 % in average concentrations and 45 to 109 % in peak concentrations depending on the pollutant. In addition, the spatial distributions of the scenarios has shown that the air pollution plume from the city of Manaus is predominantly transported west and southwest, and it can reach hundreds of kilometers in length.

  20. Contributions of mobile, stationary and biogenic sources to air pollution in the Amazon rainforest: a numerical study with the WRF-Chem model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Abou Rafee

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluates the contributions of the emissions from mobile, stationary and biogenic sources on air pollution in the Amazon rainforest by using the Weather Research and Forecasting with Chemistry (WRF-Chem model. The analyzed air pollutants were CO, NOx, SO2, O3, PM2. 5, PM10 and volatile organic compounds (VOCs. Five scenarios were defined in order to evaluate the emissions by biogenic, mobile and stationary sources, as well as a future scenario to assess the potential air quality impact of doubled anthropogenic emissions. The stationary sources explain the highest concentrations for all air pollutants evaluated, except for CO, for which the mobile sources are predominant. The anthropogenic sources considered resulted an increasing in the spatial peak-temporal average concentrations of pollutants in 3 to 2780 times in relation to those with only biogenic sources. The future scenario showed an increase in the range of 3 to 62 % in average concentrations and 45 to 109 % in peak concentrations depending on the pollutant. In addition, the spatial distributions of the scenarios has shown that the air pollution plume from the city of Manaus is predominantly transported west and southwest, and it can reach hundreds of kilometers in length.

  1. Potential impact of a US climate policy and air quality regulations on future air quality and climate change

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Lee

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available We have investigated how future air quality and climate change are influenced by the US air quality regulations that existed or were proposed in 2013 and a hypothetical climate mitigation policy that aims to reduce 2050 CO2 emissions to be 50 % below 2005 emissions. Using the NASA GISS ModelE2 general circulation model, we look at the impacts for year 2030 and 2055. The US energy-sector emissions are from the GLIMPSE project (GEOS-Chem LIDORT Integrated with MARKAL (MARKet ALlocation for the Purpose of Scenario Exploration, and other US emissions data sets and the rest of the world emissions data sets are based on the RCP4.5 scenario. The US air quality regulations are projected to have a strong beneficial impact on US air quality and public health in year 2030 and 2055 but result in positive radiative forcing. Under this scenario, no more emission constraints are added after 2020, and the impacts on air quality and climate change are similar between year 2030 and 2055. Surface particulate matter with a diameter smaller than 2.5 µm (PM2.5 is reduced by ∼ 2 µg m−3 on average over the USA, and surface ozone by ∼ 8 ppbv. The improved air quality prevents about 91 400 premature deaths in the USA, mainly due to the PM2.5 reduction (∼ 74 200 lives saved. The air quality regulations reduce the light-reflecting aerosols (i.e., sulfate and organic matter more than the light-absorbing species (i.e., black carbon and ozone, leading to a strong positive radiative forcing (RF over the USA by both aerosols' direct and indirect forcing: the total RF is  ∼ 0.04 W m−2 over the globe, and ∼ 0.8 W m−2 over the USA. Under the hypothetical climate policy, a future CO2 emissions cut is achieved in part by relying less on coal, and thus SO2 emissions are noticeably reduced. This provides air quality co-benefits, but it could lead to potential climate disbenefits over the USA. In 2055, the US mean total RF is +0.22

  2. Water-ingress analysis for the 200 MWe pebble-bed modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Yanhua; Shi Lei; Wang Yan

    2010-01-01

    Water ingress into the primary circuit is generally recognized as one of the severe accidents with potential hazard to the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor adopting steam-turbine cycle, which will cause a positive reactivity introduction, as well as the chemical corrosion of graphite fuel elements and reflector structure material. Besides, increase of the primary pressure may result in the opening of the safety valves, consequently leading the release of radioactive isotopes and flammable water gas. The analysis of such a kind of important and particular accident is significant to verify the inherent safety characteristics of the modular HTR plants. Based on the preliminary design of the 200 MWe high temperature gas-cooled reactor pebble-bed modular (HTR-PM), the design basis accident of a double-ended guillotine break of one heating tube and the beyond design basis accident of a large break of the main steam collection plate have been analyzed by using TINTE code, which is a special transient analysis program for high temperature gas-cooled reactors. Some safety relevant concerns, such as the fuel temperature, the primary loop pressure, the graphite corrosion, the water gas releasing amount, as well as the natural convection influence on the condition of failing to close the blower flaps, have been studied in detail. The calculation results indicate that even under some severe hypothetical postulates, the HTR-PM is able to keep the inherent safeties of the modular high temperature gas-cooled reactor and has a relatively good natural plant response, which will not result in environmental radiation hazard.

  3. Scenarios and innovative systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-11-01

    The purpose of this workshop is to present to the GEDEON community the scenarios for the deployment of innovative nuclear solutions. Both steady state situations and possible transitions from the present to new reactors and fuel cycles are considered. Innovative systems that satisfy improved natural resource utilization and waste minimization criteria will be described as well as the R and D orientations of various partners. This document brings together the transparencies of 17 communications given at this workshop: general policy for transmutation and partitioning; Amster: a molten salt reactor (MSR) concept; MSR capabilities; potentials and capabilities of accelerator driven systems (ADS); ADS demonstrator interest as an experimental facility; innovative systems: gas coolant technologies; Pu management in EPR; scenarios with thorium fuel; scenarios at the equilibrium state; scenarios for transition; partitioning and specific conditioning; management of separated radio-toxic elements; European programs; DOE/AAA (Advanced Accelerator Applications) program; OECD scenario studies; CEA research programs and orientations; partitioning and transmutation: an industrial point of view. (J.S.)

  4. Scenarios for Gluino Coannihilation

    CERN Document Server

    Ellis, John; Luo, Feng; Olive, Keith A

    2016-01-01

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in parti...

  5. Impacts of potential CO2-reduction policies on air quality in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trail, Marcus A; Tsimpidi, Alexandra P; Liu, Peng; Tsigaridis, Kostas; Hu, Yongtao; Rudokas, Jason R; Miller, Paul J; Nenes, Athanasios; Russell, Armistead G

    2015-04-21

    Impacts of emissions changes from four potential U.S. CO2 emission reduction policies on 2050 air quality are analyzed using the community multiscale air quality model (CMAQ). Future meteorology was downscaled from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) ModelE General Circulation Model (GCM) to the regional scale using the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) model. We use emissions growth factors from the EPAUS9r MARKAL model to project emissions inventories for two climate tax scenarios, a combined transportation and energy scenario, a biomass energy scenario and a reference case. Implementation of a relatively aggressive carbon tax leads to improved PM2.5 air quality compared to the reference case as incentives increase for facilities to install flue-gas desulfurization (FGD) and carbon capture and sequestration (CCS) technologies. However, less capital is available to install NOX reduction technologies, resulting in an O3 increase. A policy aimed at reducing CO2 from the transportation sector and electricity production sectors leads to reduced emissions of mobile source NOX, thus reducing O3. Over most of the U.S., this scenario leads to reduced PM2.5 concentrations. However, increased primary PM2.5 emissions associated with fuel switching in the residential and industrial sectors leads to increased organic matter (OM) and PM2.5 in some cities.

  6. Impact of emission control on regional air quality in the Pearl Delta River region, southern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, N.; Xuejiao, D.

    2017-12-01

    The Pearl River Delta (PRD) in China has been suffering from air quality issues and the government has implemented a series of strategies in controlling emissions. In an attempt to provide scientific support for improving air quality, the paper investigates the concerning past-to-present air quality data and assesses air quality resulting from emission control. Statistical data revealed that energy consumption doubled from 2004 to 20014 and vehicle usage increased significantly from 2006 to 2014. Due to the effect of control efforts, primary emission of SO2, NOx and PM2.5 decreased resulting in ambient concentrations of SO2, NO2 and PM10 decreased by 66%, 20% and 24%, respectively. However, O3 increased 19% because of the increase of VOC emission. A chemical transport model, the Community Multi-scale Air Quality, was employed to evaluate the responses of nitrate, ammonium, SOA, PM2.5 and O3 to changes in NOx, VOC and NH3 emissions. Three scenarios, a baseline scenario, a CAP scenario (control strength followed as past tendency), and a REF scenario (strict control referred to latest policy and plans), were conducted to investigate the responses and mechanisms. NOx controlling scenarios showed that NOx, nitrate and PM2.5 reduced by 1.8%, 0.7% and 0.2% under CAP and reduced by 7.2%, 1.8% and 0.3% under REF, respectively. The results indicated that reducing NOx emission caused the increase of atmospheric oxidizability, which might result in a compensation of PM2.5 due to the increase of nitrate or sulfate. NH3 controlling scenarios showed that nitrate was sensitive to NH3 emission in PRD, with nitrate decreased by 0 - 10.6% and 0 - 48% under CAP and REF, respectively. Since controlling NH3 emissions not only reduced ammonium but also significantly reduced nitrate, the implement of NH3 controlling strategy was highly suggested. The VOC scenarios revealed that though SOA was not the major component of PM2.5, controlling VOC emission might take effect in southwestern PRD

  7. Effects of business-as-usual anthropogenic emissions on air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Pozzer

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available The atmospheric chemistry general circulation model EMAC has been used to estimate the impact of anthropogenic emission changes on global and regional air quality in recent and future years (2005, 2010, 2025 and 2050. The emission scenario assumes that population and economic growth largely determine energy and food consumption and consequent pollution sources with the current technologies ("business as usual". This scenario is chosen to show the effects of not implementing legislation to prevent additional climate change and growing air pollution, other than what is in place for the base year 2005, representing a pessimistic (but plausible future.

    By comparing with recent observations, it is shown that the model reproduces the main features of regional air pollution distributions though with some imprecisions inherent to the coarse horizontal resolution (~100 km and simplified bottom-up emission input.

    To identify possible future hot spots of poor air quality, a multi pollutant index (MPI, suited for global model output, has been applied. It appears that East and South Asia and the Middle East represent such hotspots due to very high pollutant concentrations, while a general increase of MPIs is observed in all populated regions in the Northern Hemisphere. In East Asia a range of pollutant gases and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 is projected to reach very high levels from 2005 onward, while in South Asia air pollution, including ozone, will grow rapidly towards the middle of the century. Around the Persian Gulf, where natural PM2.5 concentrations are already high (desert dust, ozone levels are expected to increase strongly.

    The population weighted MPI (PW-MPI, which combines demographic and pollutant concentration projections, shows that a rapidly increasing number of people worldwide will experience reduced air quality during the first half of the 21st century. Following this business as usual

  8. A working definition of scenario and a method of scenario construction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barr, G.E.; Dunn, E.

    1992-01-01

    The event-tree method of scenario construction has been chosen for the Yucca Mountain performance assessment. Its applicability and suitability to the problem are discussed and compared with those of the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) method. The event-tree method is appropriate for an incompletely characterized site, where there must be an evolving understanding, over time, of the processes at work, for a site that may require analysis of details in specific context, and when the scenario functions to guide site characterization. Anticipating the eventual requirement for using the NRC method, we show that the event-tree method can be translated to the NRC format after final scenario screening

  9. Energy use, emissions and air pollution reduction strategies in Asia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Foell, W.; Green, C.; Amann, M.; Bhattacharya, S.; Carmichael, G.; Chadwick, M.; Cinderby, S.; Haugland, T.; Hettelingh, J.-P.; Hordijk, L.; Kuylenstierna, J.; Shah, J.; Shrestha, R.; Streets, D.; Zhao, D.

    1995-01-01

    In contrast to Europe and North America, air pollution in Asia is increasing rapidly, resulting in both local air quality problems and higher acidic depositions. In 1989, an east-west group of scientists initiated a multi-institutional research project on Acid Rain and Emissions Reduction in Asia, funded for the past two years by the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank. Phase I, covering 23 countries of Asia, focused on the development of PC-based software called the Regional Air Pollution Information and Simulation Model (RAINS-ASIA). A 94-region Regional Energy Scenario Generator was developed to create alternative energy/emission scenarios through the year 2020. A long-range atmospheric transport model was developed to calculate dispersion and deposition of sulfur, based upon emissions from area and large point sources, on a one-degree grid of Asia. The resulting impacts of acidic deposition on a variety of vegetation types were analyzed using the critical loads approach to test different emissions management strategies, including both energy conservation measures and sulfur abatement technologies. 14 refs., 7 figs

  10. The Impact of Future Emissions Changes on Air Pollution Concentrations and Related Human Health Effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mikolajczyk, U.; Suppan, P.; Williams, M.

    2015-12-01

    Quantification of potential health benefits of reductions in air pollution on the local scale is becoming increasingly important. The aim of this study is to conduct health impact assessment (HIA) by utilizing regionally and spatially specific data in order to assess the influence of future emission scenarios on human health. In the first stage of this investigation, a modeling study was carried out using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model coupled with Chemistry to estimate ambient concentrations of air pollutants for the baseline year 2009, and for the future emission scenarios in southern Germany. Anthropogenic emissions for the baseline year 2009 are derived from the emission inventory provided by the Netherlands Organization of Applied Scientific Research (TNO) (Denier van der Gon et al., 2010). For Germany, the TNO emissions were replaced by gridded emission data with a high spatial resolution of 1/64 x 1/64 degrees. Future air quality simulations are carried out under different emission scenarios, which reflect possible energy and climate measures in year 2030. The model set-up included a nesting approach, where three domains with horizontal resolution of 18 km, 6 km and 2 km were defined. The simulation results for the baseline year 2009 are used to quantify present-day health burdens. Concentration-response functions (CRFs) for PM2.5 and NO2 from the WHO Health risks of air Pollution in Europe (HRAPIE) project were applied to population-weighted mean concentrations to estimate relative risks and hence to determine numbers of attributable deaths and associated life-years lost. In the next step, future health impacts of projected concentrations were calculated taking into account different emissions scenarios. The health benefits that we assume with air pollution reductions can be used to provide options for future policy decisions to protect public health.

  11. Renewable energy technology portfolio planning with scenario analysis: A case study for Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, T.-Y.; Yu, Oliver S.; Hsu, George Jyh-yih; Hsu, Fang-Ming; Sung, W.-N.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents the results of a case study of applying a systematic and proven process of technology portfolio planning with the use of scenario analysis to renewable energy developments in Taiwan. The planning process starts with decision values of technology development based on a survey of society leaders. It then generates, based on expert opinions and literature search, a set of major technology alternatives, which in this study include: wind energy, photovoltaic, bio-energy, solar thermal power, ocean energy, and geothermal energy. Through a committee of technical experts with diversified professional backgrounds, the process in this study next constructs three scenarios ('Season in the Sun', 'More Desire than Energy', and 'Castle in the Air') to encompass future uncertainties in the relationships between the technology alternatives and the decision values. Finally, through a second committee of professionals, the process assesses the importance and risks of these alternative technologies and develops a general strategic plan for the renewable energy technology portfolio that is responsive and robust for the future scenarios. The most important contributions of this paper are the clear description of the systematic process of technology portfolio planning and scenario analysis, the detailed demonstration of their application through a case study on the renewable energy development in Taiwan, and the valuable results and insights gained from the application.

  12. Learning Through Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose

    level variables, this research corrects this void by investigating the dynamics of organizational learning through the lenses of a corporate scenario planning process. This enhances our scientific understanding of the role that scenario planning might play in the context of organizational learning......This project investigates the uses and effects of scenario planning in companies operating in highly uncertain and dynamic environments. Whereas previous research on scenario planning has fallen short of providing sufficient evidence of its mechanisms and effects on individual or organizational...... and strategic renewal. Empirical evidence of the various difficulties that learning flows has to overcome as it journeys through organizational and hierarchical levels are presented. Despite various cognitive and social psychological barriers identified along the way, the results show the novel...

  13. Quantifying the emissions and air quality co-benefits of lower-carbon electricity production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plachinski, Steven D.; Holloway, Tracey; Meier, Paul J.; Nemet, Gregory F.; Rrushaj, Arber; Oberman, Jacob T.; Duran, Phillip L.; Voigt, Caitlin L.

    2014-09-01

    The impact of air emissions from electricity generation depends on the spatial distribution of power plants and electricity dispatch decisions. Thus, any realistic evaluation of the air quality impacts of lower-carbon electricity must account for the spatially heterogeneous changes in associated emissions. Here, we present an analysis of the changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) associated with current, expected, and proposed energy efficiency and renewable energy policies in Wisconsin. We simulate the state's electricity system and its potential response to policies using the MyPower electricity-sector model, which calculates plant-by-plant reductions in NOx and SO2 emissions. We find that increased efficiency and renewable generation in a 2024 policy scenario substantially reduce statewide emissions of NOx and SO2 (55% and 59% compared to 2008, 32% and 33% compared to 2024 business-as-usual, BAU). PM2.5 is quantified across the Great Lakes region using the EPA Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model for some emissions scenarios. We find that summer mean surface concentrations of sulfate and PM2.5 are less sensitive to policy changes than emissions. In the 2024 policy scenario, sulfate aerosol decreases less than 3% over most of the region relative to BAU and 3-13% relative to 2008 over most of Wisconsin. The lower response of these secondary aerosols arises from chemical and meteorological processing of electricity emissions, and mixing with other emission sources. An analysis of model performance and response to emission reduction at five sites in Wisconsin shows good model agreement with observations and a high level of spatial and temporal variability in sulfate and PM2.5 reductions. In this case study, the marginal improvements in emissions and air quality associated with carbon policies were less than the technology, renewable, and conservation assumptions under a business-as-usual scenario. However, this analysis for Wisconsin shows how

  14. Scenario-based strategizing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehr, Thomas; Lorenz, Ullrich; Willert, Markus

    2017-01-01

    For over 40 years, scenarios have been promoted as a key technique for forming strategies in uncertain en- vironments. However, many challenges remain. In this article, we discuss a novel approach designed to increase the applicability of scenario-based strategizing in top management teams. Drawi...... Ministry) and a firm affected by disruptive change (Bosch, leading global supplier of technology and solutions)....

  15. Impact of the electric vehicles on the air pollution from a highway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ferrero, Enrico; Alessandrini, Stefano; Balanzino, Alessia

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • A numerical chemical-dispersion model is applied to compute air pollution generated by traffic. • A measurements campaign is carried out collecting meteorological and chemical variables. • Measurement of traffic flows and related pollution emissions make the work original. • New fleet scenarios based on electric vehicle introduction are considered. • The benefits on air quality and human health due to electric vehicles are evaluated. - Abstract: We have quantified the impact that an introduction of electric vehicles into the car fleet has on air quality (regarding NO and NO_2) using a numerical dispersion model. An experimental campaign is conducted close to a highway in Milan, Italy. Meteorological parameters and chemical concentrations are measured along with the traffic emissions. We use a Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Model to create numerical simulations of the chemical reactions and dispersion involving pollutants from the highway. To evaluate the air pollution reductions, emission scenarios with different rates of electric vehicles introduction are simulated. We have found that only a significant replacement (50%) of non-electric vehicles with electric ones yields a remarkable reduction of the pollutant concentrations. However, even with lower electric vehicles introduction rates, the air quality improvements may be relevant during intense pollution episodes. The results provide useful information to decision makers and public administrators for planning measures to modify the car fleet composition aiming to improve the urban air quality.

  16. Topical report on release scenario analysis of long-term management of high-level defense waste at the Hanford Site

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallace, R.W.; Landstrom, D.K.; Blair, S.C.; Howes, B.W.; Robkin, M.A.; Benson, G.L.; Reisenauer, A.E.; Walters, W.H.; Zimmerman, M.G.

    1980-11-01

    Potential release scenarios for the defense high-level waste (HLW) on the Hanford Site are presented. Presented in this report are the three components necessary for evaluating the various alternatives under consideration for long-term management of Hanford defense HLW: identification of scenarios and events which might directly or indirectly disrupt radionuclide containment barriers; geotransport calculations of waste migration through the site media; and consequence (dose) analyses based on groundwater and air pathways calculations. The scenarios described in this report provide the necessary parameters for radionuclide transport and consequence analysis. Scenarios are categorized as either bounding or nonbounding. Bounding scenarios consider worst case or what if situations where an actual and significant release of waste material to the environment would happen if the scenario were to occur. Bounding scenarios include both near-term and long-term scenarios. Near-term scenarios are events which occur at 100 years from 1990. Long term scenarios are potential events considered to occur at 1000 and 10,000 years from 1990. Nonbounding scenarios consider events which result in insignificant releases or no release at all to the environment. Three release mechanisms are described in this report: (1) direct exposure of waste to the biosphere by a defined sequence of events (scenario) such as human intrusion by drilling; (2) radionuclides contacting an unconfined aquifer through downward percolation of groundwater or a rising water table; and (3) cataclysmic or explosive release of radionuclides by such mechanisms as meteorite impact, fire and explosion, criticality, or seismic events. Scenarios in this report present ways in which these release mechanisms could occur at a waste management facility. The scenarios are applied to the two in-tank waste management alternatives: in-situ disposal and continued present action

  17. Evaluating strategies to reduce urban air pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Duque, L.; Relvas, H.; Silveira, C.; Ferreira, J.; Monteiro, A.; Gama, C.; Rafael, S.; Freitas, S.; Borrego, C.; Miranda, A. I.

    2016-02-01

    During the last years, specific air quality problems have been detected in the urban area of Porto (Portugal). Both PM10 and NO2 limit values have been surpassed in several air quality monitoring stations and, following the European legislation requirements, Air Quality Plans were designed and implemented to reduce those levels. In this sense, measures to decrease PM10 and NO2 emissions have been selected, these mainly related to the traffic sector, but also regarding the industrial and residential combustion sectors. The main objective of this study is to investigate the efficiency of these reduction measures with regard to the improvement of PM10 and NO2 concentration levels over the Porto urban region using a numerical modelling tool - The Air Pollution Model (TAPM). TAPM was applied over the study region, for a simulation domain of 80 × 80 km2 with a spatial resolution of 1 × 1 km2. The entire year of 2012 was simulated and set as the base year for the analysis of the impacts of the selected measures. Taking into account the main activity sectors, four main scenarios have been defined and simulated, with focus on: (1) hybrid cars; (2) a Low Emission Zone (LEZ); (3) fireplaces and (4) industry. The modelling results indicate that measures to reduce PM10 should be focused on residential combustion (fireplaces) and industrial activity and for NO2 the strategy should be based on the traffic sector. The implementation of all the defined scenarios will allow a total maximum reduction of 4.5% on the levels of both pollutants.

  18. 40 Years of Shell Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2013-02-15

    Shell has been using scenario planning for four decades. During that time these scenarios have helped the company and governments across the world to make better strategic choices. Scenarios provide lenses that help see future prospects more clearly, make richer judgments and be more sensitive to uncertainties. Discover how the Shell Scenarios team has helped guide decision makers at major moments in history and get a peek at the team future focus, including the intricate relationship between energy, water and food.

  19. Scenarios in society, society in scenarios: toward a social scientific analysis of storyline-driven environmental modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garb, Yaakov; Pulver, Simone; VanDeveer, Stacy D

    2008-01-01

    Scenario analysis, an approach to thinking about alternative futures based on storyline-driven modeling, has become increasingly common and important in attempts to understand and respond to the impacts of human activities on natural systems at a variety of scales. The construction of scenarios is a fundamentally social activity, yet social scientific perspectives have rarely been brought to bear on it. Indeed, there is a growing imbalance between the increasing technical sophistication of the modeling elements of scenarios and the continued simplicity of our understanding of the social origins, linkages, and implications of the narratives to which they are coupled. Drawing on conceptual and methodological tools from science and technology studies, sociology and political science, we offer an overview of what a social scientific analysis of scenarios might include. In particular, we explore both how scenarios intervene in social microscale and macroscale contexts and how aspects of such contexts are embedded in scenarios, often implicitly. Analyzing the social 'work' of scenarios (i) can enhance the understanding of scenario developers and modeling practitioners of the knowledge production processes in which they participate and (ii) can improve the utility of scenario products as decision-support tools to actual, rather than imagined, decision-makers.

  20. Columnar modelling of nucleation burst evolution in the convective boundary layer – first results from a feasibility study Part III: Preliminary results on physicochemical model performance using two "clean air mass" reference scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. Hellmuth

    2006-01-01

    Full Text Available In Paper I of four papers, a revised columnar high-order model to investigate gas-aerosol-turbulence interactions in the convective boundary layer (CBL was proposed. In Paper II, the model capability to predict first-, second- and third-order moments of meteorological variables in the CBL was demonstrated using available observational data. In the present Paper III, the high-order modelling concept is extended to sulphur and ammonia chemistry as well as to aerosol dynamics. Based on the previous CBL simulation, a feasibility study is performed using two "clean air mass" scenarios with an emission source at the ground but low aerosol background concentration. Such scenarios synoptically correspond to the advection of fresh post-frontal air in an anthropogenically influenced region. The aim is to evaluate the time-height evolution of ultrafine condensation nuclei (UCNs and to elucidate the interactions between meteorological and physicochemical variables in a CBL column. The scenarios differ in the treatment of new particle formation (NPF, whereas homogeneous nucleation according to the classical nucleation theory (CNT is considered. The first scenario considers nucleation of a binary system consisting of water vapour and sulphuric acid (H2SO4 vapour, the second one nucleation of a ternary system additionally involving ammonia (NH3. Here, the two synthetic scenarios are discussed in detail, whereas special attention is payed to the role of turbulence in the formation of the typical UCN burst behaviour, that can often be observed in the surface layer. The intercomparison of the two scenarios reveals large differences in the evolution of the UCN number concentration in the surface layer as well as in the time-height cross-sections of first-order moments and double correlation terms. Although in both cases the occurrence of NPF bursts could be simulated, the burst characteristics and genesis of the bursts are completely different. It is demonstrated

  1. Scenarios for remote gas production

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tangen, Grethe; Molnvik, Mona J.

    2009-01-01

    The amount of natural gas resources accessible via proven production technology and existing infrastructure is declining. Therefore, smaller and less accessible gas fields are considered for commercial exploitation. The research project Enabling production of remote gas builds knowledge and technology aiming at developing competitive remote gas production based on floating LNG and chemical gas conversion. In this project, scenarios are used as basis for directing research related to topics that affect the overall design and operation of such plants. Selected research areas are safety, environment, power supply, operability and control. The paper summarises the scenario building process as a common effort among research institutes and industry. Further, it documents four scenarios for production of remote gas and outlines how the scenarios are applied to establish research strategies and adequate plans in a multidisciplinary project. To ensure relevance of the scenarios, it is important to adapt the building process to the current problem and the scenarios should be developed with extensive participation of key personnel.

  2. Air Quality Co-Benefits of a Carbon Policy: Regional Implementation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, T. M.; Rausch, S.; Saari, R.; Selin, N. E.

    2013-12-01

    We use an integrated modeling framework to assess the air quality influence of climate change policies in the Northeast U.S. states for air pollution, and their relative health and economic benefits. We analyze three carbon policy scenarios, each reducing the same total amount of GHG emissions in the Northeast United States: an economy-wide Cap and Trade (CAT) program reducing emissions from all sectors of the economy, a Clean Energy Scenario (CES) reducing emissions from the electricity sector only, and a Transportation Scenario (TRN) reducing emissions from the transportation sector only. Regional CES policy and a regional TRN policy will cost about 10 times and 50 times more than a CAT policy, respectively. Regional CAT policy will lead to a 6% greater reduction in carbon emissions nationally in the year 2030 compared to an electric or transportation sector cap with the same regional targets. This is because, unlike a total economy cap, targeted policy options will likely cause increases in carbon emissions outside of the region covered (called carbon leakage). The human health benefits of the CAT, CES and TRN policies are 530%, 118%, and 10% of the costs of each policy respectively, meaning that the CAT and CES policies will likely fully pay for themselves in the NE U.S. We estimate that the value of human health co-benefits associated with reductions of ground level ozone and particulate matter of the CES scenario is twice that of the CAT and TRN scenarios. Economic welfare costs for each of three regionally applied carbon emissions reduction scenario are shown in blue. The calculated dollar amount of the human health benefits point estimate is shown in red with the 95% confidence interval, associated with human health response only, shown using the green line. Values are in billions of year 2006 US dollars.

  3. Managed airing behaviour and the effect on pupil perceptions and indoor climate in classrooms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toftum, Jørn; Wohlgemuth, Mette Malene; Christensen, Ulrik Sloth

    2016-01-01

    An intervention study with four different scenarios for airing classrooms were carried out in a school where manual opening of windows was the main source of ventilation. Two scenarios included a visual CO2 display unit to signal to the pupils and teachers when to open windows. The other two...... and reduce by approximately 40-60% the duration when the CO2 concentration was above 1000 ppm. With only scheduled window opening, a similar improvement was not observed. Although not significant, pupils’ perception of the air quality seemed better when the intervention was running, but they also perceived...... scenarios used two different window opening schedules. Measurements of CO2, temperature and periods with open windows were recorded, and pupils expressed their perception of the indoor environment in the classroom. With a visual CO2 display unit in the classroom, pupils were able to modify their behavior...

  4. Future air conditioning energy consumption in developing countries and what can be done about it: the potential of efficiency in the residential sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; Letschert, Virginie E. [Environmental Energy Technologies Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (United States)

    2007-07-01

    The dynamics of air conditioning are of particular interest to energy analysts, both because of the high energy consumption of this product, but also its disproportionate impact on peak load. This paper addresses the special role of this end use as a driver of residential electricity consumption in rapidly developing economies. Recent history has shown that air conditioner ownership grows more rapidly than economic growth in warm-climate countries. In 1990, less than a percent of urban Chinese households owned an air conditioner; by 2003 this number rose to 62 %. The evidence suggests a similar explosion of air conditioner use in many other countries is not far behind. Room air conditioner purchases in India are currently growing at 20 % per year, with about half of these purchases attributed to the residential sector. This paper draws on two distinct methodological elements to assess future residential air conditioner 'business as usual' electricity consumption by country/region and to consider specific alternative 'high efficiency' scenarios. The first component is an econometric ownership and use model based on household income, climate and demographic parameters. The second combines ownership forecasts and stock accounting with geographically specific efficiency scenarios within a unique analysis framework (BUENAS) developed by LBNL. The efficiency scenario module considers current efficiency baselines, available technologies, and achievable timelines for development of market transformation programs, such as minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) and labeling programs. The result is a detailed set of consumption and emissions scenarios for residential air conditioning.

  5. 2015 Standard Scenarios Annual Report: U.S. Electric Sector Scenario Exploration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sullivan, Patrick [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Cole, Wesley [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Blair, Nate [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Lantz, Eric [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Krishnan, Venkat [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mai, Trieu [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Mulcahy, David [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Porro, Gian [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States)

    2015-07-16

    This report is one of several products resulting from an initial effort to provide a consistent set of technology cost and performance data and to define a conceptual and consistent scenario framework that can be used in the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) future analyses. The long-term objective of this effort is to identify a range of possible futures of the U.S. electricity sector in which to consider specific energy system issues through (1) defining a set of prospective scenarios that bound ranges of key technology, market, and policy assumptions and (2) assessing these scenarios in NREL’s market models to understand the range of resulting outcomes, including energy technology deployment and production, energy prices, and carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions.

  6. A Dynamic Model for Roll Motion of Ships Due to Flooding

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xia, Jinzhu; Jensen, Jørgen Juncher; Pedersen, Preben Terndrup

    1997-01-01

    A dynamic model is presented of the roll motion of damaged RoRo vessels which couples the internal cross-flooding flow and the air action in the equalizing compartment. The cross flooding flow and the air motion are modelled by a modified Bernoulli equation, where artificial damping is introduced...... to avoid modal instability based on the original Bernoulli equation. The fluid action of the flooded water on the ship is expressed by its influence on the moment of inertia of the ship and the heeling moment, which is a couple created by the gravitational force of the flooded water and the change...... of buoyancy of the ship.Two limiting flooding cases are examined in the present analysis: The sudden ingress of a certain amount of water to the damaged compartment with no further water exchange between the sea and the flooded compartment during the roll motion, and the continuous ingress of water through...

  7. Scenario Development for Water Resources Planning and Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, S.; Mahmoud, M.; Liu, Y.; Hartman, H.; Wagener, T.; Gupta, H.

    2006-12-01

    The main objective of scenario development for water resources is to inform policy-makers about the implications of various policies to inform decision-making. Although there have been a number of studies conducted in the relatively-new and recent field of scenario analysis and development, very few of those have been explicitly applied to water resource issues. More evident is the absence of an established formal approach to develop and apply scenarios. Scenario development is a process that evaluates possible future states of the world by examining several feasible scenarios. A scenario is a projection of various physical and socioeconomic conditions that describe change from the current state to a future state. In this paper, a general framework for scenario development with special emphasis on applications to water resources is considered. The process comprises several progressive and reiterative phases: scenario definition, scenario construction, scenario analysis, scenario assessment, and risk management. Several characteristics of scenarios that are important in describing scenarios are also taken into account; these include scenario types, scenario themes, scenario likelihoods and scenario categories. A hindrance to the adoption of a unified framework for scenario development is inconsistency in the terminology used by scenario developers. To address this problem, we propose a consistent terminology of basic and frequent terms. Outreach for this formal approach is partially maintained through an interactive community website that seeks to educate potential scenario developers about the scenario development process, share and exchange information and resources on scenarios to foster a multidisciplinary community of scenario developers, and establish a unified framework for scenario development with regards to terminology and guidelines. The website provides information on scenario development, current scenario-related activities, key water resources scenario

  8. Journal of Air Transportation, Volume 10, No. 2

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowen, Brent (Editor); Unal, Mehmet (Editor); Gudmundsson, Sveinn Vidar (Editor); Kabashkin, Igor (Editor)

    2005-01-01

    Topics discussed include: Mitigation Alternatives for Carbon Dioxide Emissions by the Air Transport Industry in Brazil; Air Transport Regulation Under Transformation: The Case of Switzerland; An Estimation of Aircraft Emissions at Turkish Airports; Guide to the Implementation of Iso 14401 at Airports; The Impact of Constrained Future Scenarios on Aviation and Emissions; The Immediate Financial Impact of Transportation Deregulation on the Stockholders of the Airline Industry; Aviation Related Airport Marketing in an Overlapping Metropolitan Catchment Area: The Case of Milan's Three Airports; and Airport Pricing Systems and Airport Deregulation Effects on Welfare.

  9. Environmental implications of United States coal exports: a comparative life cycle assessment of future power system scenarios.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bohnengel, Barrett; Patiño-Echeverri, Dalia; Bergerson, Joule

    2014-08-19

    Stricter emissions requirements on coal-fired power plants together with low natural gas prices have contributed to a recent decline in the use of coal for electricity generation in the United States. Faced with a shrinking domestic market, many coal companies are taking advantage of a growing coal export market. As a result, U.S. coal exports hit an all-time high in 2012, fueled largely by demand in Asia. This paper presents a comparative life cycle assessment of two scenarios: a baseline scenario in which coal continues to be burned domestically for power generation, and an export scenario in which coal is exported to Asia. For the coal export scenario we focus on the Morrow Pacific export project being planned in Oregon by Ambre Energy that would ship 8.8 million tons of Powder River Basin (PRB) coal annually to Asian markets via rail, river barge, and ocean vessel. Air emissions (SOx, NOx, PM10 and CO2e) results assuming that the exported coal is burned for electricity generation in South Korea are compared to those of a business as usual case in which Oregon and Washington's coal plants, Boardman and Centralia, are retrofitted to comply with EPA emissions standards and continue their coal consumption. Findings show that although the environmental impacts of shipping PRB coal to Asia are significant, the combination of superior energy efficiency among newer South Korean coal-fired power plants and lower emissions from U.S. replacement of coal with natural gas could lead to a greenhouse gas reduction of 21% in the case that imported PRB coal replaces other coal sources in this Asian country. If instead PRB coal were to replace natural gas or nuclear generation in South Korea, greenhouse gas emissions per unit of electricity generated would increase. Results are similar for other air emissions such as SOx, NOx and PM. This study provides a framework for comparing energy export scenarios and highlights the importance of complete life cycle assessment in

  10. Dynamic methods of air traffic flow management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek SKORUPSKI

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Air traffic management is a complex hierarchical system. Hierarchy levels can be defined according to decision making time horizon or to analyze area volume. For medium time horizon and wide analysis area, the air traffic flow management services were established. Their main task is to properly co-ordinate air traffic in European airspace, so as to minimize delays arising in congested sectors. Those services have to assure high safety level at the same time. Thus it is a very complex task, with many goals, many decision variables and many constraints.In the paper review of the methods developed for aiding air traffic flow management services is presented. More detailed description of a dynamic method is given. This method is based on stochastic capacity and scenario analysis. Some problems in utilization of presented methods are also pointed out, so are the next research possibilities.

  11. Source attribution and mitigation strategies for air pollution in Delhi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiesewetter, Gregor; Purohit, Pallav; Schoepp, Wolfgang; Liu, Jun; Amann, Markus; Bhanarkar, Anil

    2017-04-01

    Indian cities, and the megacity of Delhi in particular, have suffered from high air pollution for years. Recent observations show that ambient concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) in Delhi strongly exceed the Indian national ambient air quality standards as well as the World Health Organization's interim target levels. At the same time, India is experiencing strong urbanization, and both Delhi's emissions as well as the exposed population are growing. Therefore the question arises how PM2.5 concentrations will evolve in the future, and how they can be improved efficiently. In the past, typical responses of the Delhi government to high pollution episodes have been restrictions on motorized road traffic, on power plant operations and on construction activities. However, to design sustainable and efficient pollution mitigation measures, the contribution of different source sectors and spatial scales needs to be quantified. Here we combine the established emission calculation scheme of the Greenhouse Gas - Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model with regional chemistry-transport model simulations (0.5° resolution) as well as local particle dispersion (2 × 2 km resolution) to arrive at a source attribution of ambient PM2.5 in Delhi. Calculated concentrations compare well to observations. We find that roughly 60% of total population-weighted PM2.5 originates from sources outside the national capital territory of Delhi itself. Consequently, mitigation strategies need to involve neighboring states and address the typical sources there. We discuss the likely evolution of ambient concentrations under different scenarios which assume either current emission control legislation, or application of a Clean Air Scenario foreseeing additional regulations in non-industrial sectors which are often overlooked, such as phase-out of solid fuel cookstoves, and road paving. Only in the case where the Clean Air Scenario is applied both in Delhi as well as in

  12. Sustainable freight infrastructure to meet climate and air quality goals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    This report examines the potential for freight modal shift from truck-to-rail in the upper Midwestern U.S. : to improve air quality and reduce CO2 emissions. Two scenarios were generated, one focusing on : intra-regional freight movements within the ...

  13. Exposure scenarios for workers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marquart, H.; Northage, C.; Money, C.

    2007-01-01

    The new European chemicals legislation REACH (Registration, Evaluation, Authorisation and restriction of Chemicals) requires the development of Exposure Scenarios describing the conditions and risk management measures needed for the safe use of chemicals. Such Exposure Scenarios should integrate

  14. Regional climate change scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Somot, S.

    2005-01-01

    Because studies of the regional impact of climate change need higher spatial resolution than that obtained in standard global climate change scenarios, developing regional scenarios from models is a crucial goal for the climate modelling community. The zoom capacity of ARPEGE-Climat, the Meteo-France climate model, allows use of scenarios with a horizontal resolution of about 50 km over France and the Mediterranean basin. An IPCC-A2 scenario for the end of the 21. century in France shows higher temperatures in each season and more winter and less summer precipitation than now. Tuning the modelled statistical distributions to observed temperature and precipitation allows us to study changes in the frequency of extreme events between today's climate and that at the end of century. The frequency of very hot days in summer will increase. In particular, the frequency of days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C will be multiplied by a factor of 10, on average. In our scenario, the Toulouse area and Provence might see one quarter of their summer days with a maximum temperature above 35 deg C. (author)

  15. Nuclear power prospects and potential: scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rogner, Hans-Hogler; McDonald, Alan; )

    2002-01-01

    This paper outlines a range of scenarios describing what the world's energy system might look in the middle of the century, and what nuclear energy's most profitable role might be. The starting point is the 40 non-greenhouse-gas-mitigation scenarios in the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Given their international authorship and comprehensive review by governments and scientific experts, the SRES scenarios are the state of the art in long-term energy scenarios

  16. Scenario-based roadmapping assessing nuclear technology development paths for future nuclear energy system scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Van Den Durpel, Luc; Roelofs, Ferry; Yacout, Abdellatif

    2009-01-01

    Nuclear energy may play a significant role in a future sustainable energy mix. The transition from today's nuclear energy system towards a future more sustainable nuclear energy system will be dictated by technology availability, energy market competitiveness and capability to achieve sustainability through the nuclear fuel cycle. Various scenarios have been investigated worldwide each with a diverse set of assumptions on the timing and characteristics of new nuclear energy systems. Scenario-based roadmapping combines the dynamic scenario-analysis of nuclear energy systems' futures with the technology roadmap information published and analysed in various technology assessment reports though integrated within the nuclear technology roadmap Nuclear-Roadmap.net. The advantages of this combination is to allow mutual improvement of scenario analysis and nuclear technology roadmapping providing a higher degree of confidence in the assessment of nuclear energy system futures. This paper provides a description of scenario-based roadmapping based on DANESS and Nuclear-Roadmap.net. (author)

  17. Implications of alternative assumptions regarding future air pollution control in scenarios similar to the Representative Concentration Pathways

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Chuwah, C.; van Noije, T.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Hazeleger, W.; Strunk, A.; Deetman, S.; Beltran, A.M.; van Vliet, J.

    2013-01-01

    The uncertain, future development of emissions of short-lived trace gases and aerosols forms a key factor for future air quality and climate forcing. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) only explore part of this range as they all assume that worldwide ambitious air pollution control

  18. Elaborating SRES scenarios for nuclear energy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McDonald, Alan; Riahi, Keywan; Rogner, Hans-Holger

    2003-01-01

    The objective of this paper is identifying mid-century economic targets for nuclear energy. The first step is to describe what the mid-century energy market might look like: the major competitors for nuclear energy, what products are in demand, how much of each, where is growth greatest, and so forth. The mechanism for systematically describing the future market is scenario building. The starting point is the scenarios in the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. SRES developed four narrative story lines, each representing a different coherent set of demographic, social, economic, technological, and environmental developments. For each story line several different scenarios were developed by six international modelling teams, resulting in 40 scenarios grouped in the 4 story lines. For three of the story lines this paper uses a single marker scenario representative of central tendencies within the scenario family. For the fourth story line the authors chose the scenario that assumes that advances in non-fossil technologies - renewable, nuclear, and high-efficiency conservation technologies - make them most cost-competitive. (BA)

  19. An Accelerated Test Method of Simultaneous Carbonation and Chloride Ion Ingress: Durability of Silica Fume Concrete in Severe Environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Ghahari

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The effects of simultaneous carbonation and chloride ion attack on mechanical characteristics and durability of concrete containing silica fume have been investigated through an accelerated test method. Specimens containing different amounts of silica fume were maintained in an apparatus in which carbon dioxide pressure and concentration and relative humidity were kept constant, and wetting and drying cycles in saline water were applied. Surface resistivity, sorptivity, CO2 consumption, and carbonation and chloride ion ingress depths measurements were taken. Phase change due to carbonation and chloride ion attack was monitored by XRD analysis, and microstructures and interfacial transition zones were studied by implementing SEM as well as mercury intrusion porosimetry. It was expected to have a synergistic effect in the tidal zone where simultaneous carbonation and chloride ion attack happen. However, the observed reduced surface resistivity, compared to specimens maintained in CO2 gas, could be due to the moisture that is available near the surface, hindering CO2 from penetrating into the pores of the specimens. Moreover, the porosity analysis of the specimens showed that the sample containing silica fume cured in the tidal zone had 50.1% less total porosity than the plain cement paste cured in the same condition.

  20. Energy scenarios for New Zealand

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harris, G. S.; Ellis, M. J.; Scott, G. C.; Wood, J. R.

    1977-10-15

    Three energy scenarios have been formulated for New Zealand. They concentrate on those aspects of society which have a direct bearing on energy, emphasizing three important issues: major shifts in society's values in relation to material wealth, pollution, and resources. The scenarios make assumptions that certain overall social conditions would prevail so that all decisions of government, the private sector, and individuals would be governed by the requirement to conform to the scenario theme in a way not possible under existing social and political conditions. The 3 scenarios are known as Continuation, Low New Zealand Pollution, and Limited Growth.

  1. Energy scenarios: a prospective outlook

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Salomon, Thierry; Claustre, Raphael; Charru, Madeleine; Sukov, Stephane; Marignac, Yves; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben; Le Saux, Gildas

    2011-01-01

    A set of articles discusses the use of energy scenarios: how useful they can be to describe a possible future and even to gather the involved actors, how they have been used in France in the past (for planning or prediction purposes, with sometimes some over-assessed or contradictory results, without considering any decline of nuclear energy, or by setting an impossible equation in the case of the Grenelle de l'Environnement), how the scenario framework impacts its content (depending on the approach type: standard, optimization, bottom-up, top-down, or hybrid). It also discusses the issue of choice of hypotheses on growth-based and de-growth-based scenarios, outlines how energy saving is a key for a sustainable evolution. Two German scenarios regarding electricity production (centralisation or decentralisation) and French regional scenarios for Nord-Pas-de-Calais are then briefly discussed

  2. Negatep: A Scenario for Combating Global Warming; Le scenario Negatep. Un scenario de lutte contre le rechauffement climatique

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Acket, C.; Bacher, P. [Sauvons Le Climat, 92 - Boulogne Billancourt (France)

    2011-07-15

    There have been an increasing number of foresight exercises in the field of energy and global warming in recent years, as we have seen from the articles devoted to these questions by Futuribles in 2011 (both in this special issue and in the April number). It is certainly the case that the goals for greenhouse-gas emission reduction are rather ambitious, particularly in France, it being the aim of the 2005 French framework law on energy to reduce carbon gas discharges by a factor of four. Among these scenarios, the Negatep scenario developed by Claude Acket and Pierre Bacher from the 'Sauvons le climat' [Let's save the climate] Association proposes to achieve this ('factor 4') goal in France by 2050 by reducing fossil fuel use by 75% and replacing this as quickly as possible with electricity produced from non-carbon-gas-emitting sources - chiefly, nuclear power and renewables. The authors lay out their goals here, backed up by figures, comparing these with the reference scenario. They also show the path that must be followed to arrive at these goals, particularly in the residential and tertiary sectors, and in transport and industry (through control of needs and recourse to alternative energy sources). They close by comparing the Negatep scenario with two other more recent scenarios aimed also at reducing greenhouse gas emissions, on the one hand in Europe, and on the other in Germany. The comparison confirms that they were right to rely on electricity as a substitute for oil, but gives them cause for concern in respect of the consequences (formidable in their view) that the replacement of nuclear power and coal energy by intermittent renewable energies might have in Europe, both with regard to costs and to the effects on the power network. (authors)

  3. Greenhouse effect: an issue for the refrigeration and air conditioning sector; Effet de serre: quelle problematique pour le froid et le conditionnement de l`air?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Billiard, F. [Institut International du Froid, 75 - Paris (France)

    1997-12-31

    The principles of greenhouse effect and the greenhouse gas main direct and indirect emission sources due to refrigeration and air conditioning systems are first reviewed. Evolution scenarios from 1992 to 2020 and 2100 for the emissions of CFC, HCFC and HFC are presented and related to the Kyoto protocol project limitations; technical improvements in refrigerating and air conditioning systems (lower refrigerant utilization, fluid confinement, alternative technologies, natural refrigerant utilization, etc.) could lead to substantial diminutions of these greenhouse gases

  4. Health burdens of surface ozone in the UK for a range of future scenarios

    OpenAIRE

    Heal, Mathew R.; Heaviside, Clare; Doherty, Ruth M.; Vieno, Massimo; Stevenson, David S.; Vardoulakis, Sotiris

    2013-01-01

    Exposure to surface ozone (O3), which is influenced by emissions of precursor chemical species, meteorology and population distribution, is associated with excess mortality and respiratory morbidity. In this study, the EMEP-WRF atmospheric chemistry transport model was used to simulate surface O3 concentrations at 5 km horizontal resolution over the British Isles for a baseline year of 2003, for three anthropogenic emissions scenarios for 2030, and for a + 5 °C increase in air temperature on ...

  5. Co-benefits of energy efficiency improvement and air pollution abatement in the Chinese iron and steel industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, Shaohui; Worrell, Ernst; Crijns-Graus, Wina; Wagner, Fabian; Cofala, Janusz

    2014-01-01

    In 2010, China was responsible for 45% of global steel production, while consuming 15.8 EJ of final energy and emitting 1344 Mt CO 2eq , 8.4 Mt of PM (particulate matter) emissions, and 5.3 Mt of SO 2 emissions. In this paper we analyse the co-benefits of implementing energy efficiency measures that jointly reduce greenhouse gas emissions and air pollutants, in comparison to applying only air pollution control (end-of-pipe technology). For this purpose we construct ECSC (energy conservation supply curves) that contain potentials and costs of energy efficiency measures and implement these in the GAINS (greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies) model. Findings show that the technical energy saving potential for the Chinese iron and steel industry for 2030 is around 5.7 EJ. This is equivalent to 28% of reference energy use in 2030. The emissions mitigation of GHGs (greenhouse gases) and air pollutants in BAEEM S 3 scenario would be reduce 27% CO 2 eq, 3% of PM, and 22% of SO 2 , compared to the BL scenario in 2030. Investments and cost savings were calculated for different scenarios, showing that energy efficiency investments will result in significant reductions in air pollution control costs. Hence, Energy efficiency measures should be integrated in air quality policy in China. - Highlights: • Implementation rates of 56 EEMs (energy efficiency measures) are quantified in China's Iron and steel industry. • Energy Supply Cost Curve was implemented in the GAINS (greenhouse gas and air pollution interactions and synergies) model. • The contribution of energy efficiency measure on the process level was estimated. • There are large co-benefits of improving energy efficiency and reducing emissions. • EEMs (energy efficiency measures) would lead to huge reductions in air pollution

  6. Engaging Personas and Narrative Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lene

    2004-01-01

    design ideas. The concept of engaging personas and narrative scenario explores personas in the light of what what it is to identify with and have empathy with a character. The concept of narrative scenarios views the narrative as aid for exploration of design ideas. Both concepts incorporate...... a distinktion between creating, writing and reading. Keywords: personas, scenarios, user-centered design, HCI...

  7. Mars base buildup scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blacic, J.D.

    1985-01-01

    Two surface base build-up scenarios are presented in order to help visualize the mission and to serve as a basis for trade studies. In the first scenario, direct manned landings on the Martian surface occur early in the missions and scientific investigation is the main driver and rationale. In the second scenario, early development of an infrastructure to exploite the volatile resources of the Martian moons for economic purposes is emphasized. Scientific exploration of the surface is delayed at first, but once begun develops rapidly aided by the presence of a permanently manned orbital station

  8. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, L.G.; Palsson, A. [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1997-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  9. Trends in aircraft emissions. Simulation of two air traffic scenarios in Sweden

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larson, L G; Palsson, A [The Aeronautical Research Inst. of Sweden, Bromma (Sweden). The Swedish Civil Aviation Administration

    1998-12-31

    The developing trends of emissions from aviation in Sweden have been studied by means of flight and emissions simulation. The objective was to investigate whether technical improvements will allow Swedish air traffic to increase, without exceeding national regulations for pollution in the future. It was found that, due to development of aircraft engines and, to some extent, improvement of aerodynamic designs, the fuel consumption and thus the emissions of carbon dioxide will decrease in the future. The decrease of nitrous oxides is predicted to be significant due to advances in engine technology. (author) 4 refs.

  10. Automated Air Traffic Control Operations with Weather and Time-Constraints: A First Look at (Simulated) Far-Term Control Room Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prevot, Thomas; Homola, Jeffrey R.; Martin, Lynne H.; Mercer, Joey S.; Cabrall, Christopher C.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper we discuss results from a recent high fidelity simulation of air traffic control operations with automated separation assurance in the presence of weather and time-constraints. We report findings from a human-in-the-loop study conducted in the Airspace Operations Laboratory (AOL) at the NASA Ames Research Center. During four afternoons in early 2010, fifteen active and recently retired air traffic controllers and supervisors controlled high levels of traffic in a highly automated environment during three-hour long scenarios, For each scenario, twelve air traffic controllers operated eight sector positions in two air traffic control areas and were supervised by three front line managers, Controllers worked one-hour shifts, were relieved by other controllers, took a 3D-minute break, and worked another one-hour shift. On average, twice today's traffic density was simulated with more than 2200 aircraft per traffic scenario. The scenarios were designed to create peaks and valleys in traffic density, growing and decaying convective weather areas, and expose controllers to heavy and light metering conditions. This design enabled an initial look at a broad spectrum of workload, challenge, boredom, and fatigue in an otherwise uncharted territory of future operations. In this paper we report human/system integration aspects, safety and efficiency results as well as airspace throughput, workload, and operational acceptability. We conclude that, with further refinements. air traffic control operations with ground-based automated separation assurance can be an effective and acceptable means to routinely provide very high traffic throughput in the en route airspace.

  11. From scenarios to components

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fahland, D.

    2010-01-01

    Scenario-based modeling has evolved as an accepted paradigm for developing complex systems of various kinds. Its main purpose is to ensure that a system provides desired behavior to its users. A scenario is generally understood as a behavioral requirement, denoting a course of actions that shall

  12. Italian energy scenarios comparative evaluations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Contaldi, Mario

    2005-01-01

    This paper reviews some representative scenarios of the evolution of the Italian primary energy consumption, updated recently. After an overview of the main macroeconomics assumptions the scenario results are cross checked at sectorial level, with a brief discussion of the underlining data and energy intensity trends. The emissions of CO 2 , SO 2 and NO x resulting from the considered scenarios are also reported and discussed [it

  13. Impacts of Air Pollution on Health in Eastern China: Implications for future air pollution and energy policies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, X.; Mauzerall, D.

    2004-12-01

    Our objective is to establish the link between energy consumption and technologies, air pollution and resulting impacts on public health in eastern China. We quantify the impacts that air pollution in the Shandong region of eastern China has on public health in 2000 and quantify the benefits in improved air quality and health that could be obtained by 2020, relative to business-as-usual, through the implementation of new energy technology. We first develop a highly-resolved emission inventory for the year 2000 for the Shandong region of China including emissions from large point, area, mobile and biogenic sources. We use the Sparse Matrix Operator Kernel Emissions Modeling System (SMOKE) to process emissions from this inventory for use in the Community Multi-scale Air Quality modeling system (CMAQ) which we drive with the NCAR/PSU MM5 meso-scale meteorology model. We evaluate the inventory by comparing CMAQ results with available measurements of PM10 and SO2 from air pollution indices (APIs) reported in various Chinese municipalities during 2002-2004. We use epidemiological dose-response functions to quantify health impacts and values of a statistical life (VSL) and years-of-life-lost (YLL) to establish a range for the monetary value of these impacts. To examine health impacts and their monetary value, we focus explicitly on Zaozhuang, a coal-intensive city in the Shandong region of eastern China, and quantify the mortalities and morbidities resulting from air pollutants emitted from this city in 2000, and in 2020 using business-as-usual, best-available control technology, and advanced coal gasification technology scenarios. In all scenarios most health damages arise from exposure to particulate matter. We find that total health damages due to year 2000 anthropogenic emissions from Zaozhuang accounted for 4-10% of its GDP. If all health damages resulting from coal use were internalized in the market price of coal, the year 2000 price would have doubled. With no new

  14. Do environmental dynamics matter in fate models? Exploring scenario dynamics for a terrestrial and an aquatic system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morselli, Melissa; Terzaghi, Elisa; Di Guardo, Antonio

    2018-01-24

    Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.

  15. EVALUATION OF SCENARIOS OF AIR POLLUTANTS EMISSIONS BY THE AIRPORT EXPANSION AND ASSOCIATED INFRASTRUCTURE - CASE STUDY OF THE EXTENSION OF VIRACOPOS AIRPORT AT CAMPINAS, SÃO PAULO, BRAZIL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lucia H.G. Coelho

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The development of the airport segment faces environmental externalities especially related to the increase in emissions of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs from combustion of fossil fuels by the aircraft engine, by the machinery for the maintenance of the planes and also by the vehicles used for passengers connections (private cars, taxicabs or public transportation system. In this scope, the current work presents the case study of the expansion of the Viracopos International Airport at Campinas – São Paulo, Brazil. To evaluate that, the methodology of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC was implemented to estimate the emissions of GHGs by aircraft for the years 2008 (before expansion, 2012 (current picture and 2018 (future scenario observing the changes in demand for passengers and cargo transportation. To evaluate the emissions from the vehicles it was used the AIMSUN microsimulation software to estimate emissions in the years 2012 and to simulate sensitivity scenarios for the year 2018. It was found that the inventory of CO2 emissions for both types of transports considered for the Viracopos airport showed similar orders of magnitude, what can be inferred about the equivalent contribution of these two modes on emissions of GHGs for the study area. These results may serve as a basis for establishing emission management plans of air pollutants by the competent organizations and to propose more targeted and effective measures to reduce the GHG emissions by these sources.

  16. Towards an Integrated Assessment Model for Tropospheric Ozone-Emission Inventories, Scenarios and Emission-control Options

    OpenAIRE

    Olsthoorn, X.

    1994-01-01

    IIASA intends to extend its RAINS model for addressing the issue of transboundary ozone air pollution. This requires the development of a VOC-emissions module, VOCs being precursors in ozone formation. The module should contain a Europe-wide emission inventory, a submodule for developing emission scenarios and a database of measures for VOC-emission control, including data about control effectiveness and control costs. It is recommended to use the forthcoming CORINAIR90 inventory for construc...

  17. Scenarios

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pérez-Soba, Marta; Maas, Rob

    2015-01-01

    We cannot predict the future with certainty, but we know that it is influenced by our current actions, and that these in turn are influenced by our expectations. This is why future scenarios have existed from the dawn of civilization and have been used for developing military, political and economic

  18. Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medeiros, Adan S. S.; Calderaro, Gisele; Guimarães, Patricia C.; Magalhaes, Mateus R.; Morais, Marcos V. B.; Rafee, Sameh A. A.; Ribeiro, Igor O.; Andreoli, Rita V.; Martins, Jorge A.; Martins, Leila D.; Martin, Scot T.; Souza, Rodrigo A. F.

    2017-07-01

    How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem) model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality in 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NOx and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by > 70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NOx-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Policies favoring the burning of

  19. Power plant fuel switching and air quality in a tropical, forested environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. S. Medeiros

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available How a changing energy matrix for electricity production affects air quality is considered for an urban region in a tropical, forested environment. Manaus, the largest city in the central Amazon Basin of Brazil, is in the process of changing its energy matrix for electricity production from fuel oil and diesel to natural gas over an approximately 10-year period, with a minor contribution by hydropower. Three scenarios of urban air quality, specifically afternoon ozone concentrations, were simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-Chem model. The first scenario used fuel oil and diesel for electricity production, which was the reality in 2008. The second scenario was based on the fuel mix from 2014, the most current year for which data were available. The third scenario considered nearly complete use of natural gas for electricity production, which is the anticipated future, possibly for 2018. For each case, inventories of anthropogenic emissions were based on electricity generation, refinery operations, and transportation. Transportation and refinery operations were held constant across the three scenarios to focus on effects of power plant fuel switching in a tropical context. The simulated NOx and CO emissions for the urban region decrease by 89 and 55 %, respectively, after the complete change in the energy matrix. The results of the simulations indicate that a change to natural gas significantly decreases maximum afternoon ozone concentrations over the population center, reducing ozone by > 70 % for the most polluted days. The sensitivity of ozone concentrations to the fuel switchover is consistent with a NOx-limited regime, as expected for a tropical forest having high emissions of biogenic volatile organic compounds, high water vapor concentrations, and abundant solar radiation. There are key differences in a shifting energy matrix in a tropical, forested environment compared to other world environments. Policies

  20. Emission scenarios for a global hydrogen economy and the consequences for global air pollution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.; Lamarque, J.F.; van Vuuren, D.P.; Kram, T.; Eerens, H.

    2011-01-01

    Hydrogen is named as possible energy carrier for future energy systems. However, the impact of large-scale hydrogen use on the atmosphere is uncertain. Application of hydrogen in clean fuel cells reduces emissions of air pollutants, but emissions from hydrogen production and leakages of molecular

  1. Information on Asse II

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2015-01-01

    The information brochure on Asse II describes the situation in the repository for radioactive wastes that was closed by law due to the violations of safety standards. The discussed topics include the necessity of waste retrieval, the problems with public anxiety and public information, the hazard of an uncontrolled water ingress (worst case scenario), the work sites in the cavern, man-machine interactions and the cost of the project.

  2. Information on Asse II; Informationen ueber die Schachtanlage Asse II

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2015-02-15

    The information brochure on Asse II describes the situation in the repository for radioactive wastes that was closed by law due to the violations of safety standards. The discussed topics include the necessity of waste retrieval, the problems with public anxiety and public information, the hazard of an uncontrolled water ingress (worst case scenario), the work sites in the cavern, man-machine interactions and the cost of the project.

  3. Development of a database-driven system for simulating water temperature in the lower Yakima River main stem, Washington, for various climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Frank; Maule, Alec

    2013-01-01

    A model for simulating daily maximum and mean water temperatures was developed by linking two existing models: one developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and one developed by the Bureau of Reclamation. The study area included the lower Yakima River main stem between the Roza Dam and West Richland, Washington. To automate execution of the labor-intensive models, a database-driven model automation program was developed to decrease operation costs, to reduce user error, and to provide the capability to perform simulations quickly for multiple management and climate change scenarios. Microsoft© SQL Server 2008 R2 Integration Services packages were developed to (1) integrate climate, flow, and stream geometry data from diverse sources (such as weather stations, a hydrologic model, and field measurements) into a single relational database; (2) programmatically generate heavily formatted model input files; (3) iteratively run water temperature simulations; (4) process simulation results for export to other models; and (5) create a database-driven infrastructure that facilitated experimentation with a variety of scenarios, node permutations, weather data, and hydrologic conditions while minimizing costs of running the model with various model configurations. As a proof-of-concept exercise, water temperatures were simulated for a "Current Conditions" scenario, where local weather data from 1980 through 2005 were used as input, and for "Plus 1" and "Plus 2" climate warming scenarios, where the average annual air temperatures used in the Current Conditions scenario were increased by 1degree Celsius (°C) and by 2°C, respectively. Average monthly mean daily water temperatures simulated for the Current Conditions scenario were compared to measured values at the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet gage at Kiona, Washington, for 2002-05. Differences ranged between 1.9° and 1.1°C for February, March, May, and June, and were less than 0.8°C for the remaining months of the year

  4. Impact of a future H2-based road transportation sector on the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere – Part 1: Tropospheric composition and air quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Wang

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Vehicles burning fossil fuel emit a number of substances that change the composition and chemistry of the atmosphere, and contribute to global air and water pollution and climate change. For example, nitrogen oxides and volatile organic compounds (VOCs emitted as byproducts of fossil fuel combustion are key precursors to ground-level ozone and aerosol formation. In addition, on-road vehicles are major CO2 emitters. In order to tackle these problems, molecular hydrogen (H2 has been proposed as an energy carrier to substitute for fossil fuels in the future. However, before implementing any such strategy it is crucial to evaluate its potential impacts on air quality and climate. Here, we evaluate the impact of a future (2050 H2-based road transportation sector on tropospheric chemistry and air quality for several possible growth and technology adoption scenarios. The growth scenarios are based on the high and low emissions Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Special Report on Emissions Scenarios, A1FI and B1, respectively. The technological adoption scenarios include H2 fuel cell and H2 internal combustion engine options. The impacts are evaluated with the Community Atmospheric Model Chemistry global chemistry transport model (CAM-Chem. Higher resolution simulations focusing on the contiguous United States are also carried out with the Community Multiscale Air Quality Modeling System (CMAQ regional chemistry transport model. For all scenarios future air quality improves with the adoption of a H2-based road transportation sector; however, the magnitude and type of improvement depend on the scenario. Model results show that the adoption of H2 fuel cells would decrease tropospheric burdens of ozone (7%, CO (14%, NOx (16%, soot (17%, sulfate aerosol (4%, and ammonium nitrate aerosol (12% in the A1FI scenario, and would decrease those of ozone (5%, CO (4%, NOx (11%, soot (7%, sulfate aerosol (4%, and ammonium nitrate aerosol (9% in the B1 scenario

  5. SCENARIO PLANNING AS LEARNING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio Lourenço Junior

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available Scenario Planning has been increasingly used, from its introduction to the decision process as effective tools to test decisions, and improve performance in a dynamic environment (Chermack, 2005. The purpose of this article is to demonstrate the potential of an experimental Scenario Planning Model to mobilize, encourage and add more content to the organization’s decision making process – mainly with respect to Strategic Plans of two governmental institutions, a pharmaceutical company and a technology education foundation.  This study describes the application stages of a hybrid scenario-planning model – herein referred to as Planning as Learning – via action-research, showing the scenarios resulting from the experiment and describes the main results of an assessment of such practice. In order to do that, two well-established Scenario Planning models (Prospective school and Shell’s model were analyzed. They were used as a reference for the proposition and application of an experimental model in the two study objects. A questionnaire was used to assess the technique impact. It was possible to obtain high levels of reliability. In-depth interviews were also conducted with the participants. At the end, the results confirmed the model efficiency as a basis for decision making in the competitive environment in which the two institutions are inserted, also to encourage the learning process as a group, as observed throughout the work.

  6. The negaWatt 2011 scenario

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2016-03-01

    This article presents the approach adopted for the negaWatt scenario and its obtained results. It is based on sobriety (energy savings), on energy efficiency, and on the use of renewable energies. After having outlined the different reasons for an energy transition (increasing energy consumption, critics and risks related to nuclear energy, and high potential of renewable energies), the scenario is presented with its main principles. The scenario identifies possibilities ranging from half to two thirds of energy saving in the different energy consuming sectors. The building sector is presented as a major issue. The transport is described as a sector to be addressed on the long term. The necessary change of the industry sector is highlighted. The agriculture sector is presented as being at the heart of transition. Energy usages are to become sober, efficient and renewable. The scenario is based on a high rate development of renewable energies, while fossil energies are to become marginal, nuclear is to be progressively and reasonably given up, and networks are to become compatible to ensure the scenario success. Thus, the scenario demonstrates the feasibility of a 100 pc sustainable assessment for primary energy, complies with stakes and objectives by 2050. The cost of energy transition is briefly discussed

  7. Rethinking the role of scenarios: Participatory scripting of low-carbon scenarios for France

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathy, Sandrine; Fink, Meike; Bibas, Ruben

    2015-01-01

    This article considers the usefulness of low-carbon scenarios in public decision-making. They may be useful as a product-oriented trajectory. The scenarios on the agenda of the 2013 Energy Debate in France belong to this category. But a scenario may also be process-oriented, in the sense that its scripting process helps build consensus and a minimum level of agreement. We have scripted scenarios using a codevelopment method, involving about 40 stakeholders from the private and public sectors, and from the state: NGOs, consumer groups, trade unions, banks and local authorities. They selected policies they considered acceptable for achieving 75% greenhouse gases emission reductions in 2050. These policies were then integrated in the Imaclim-R-France technico-economic simulation model, as part of a high or moderate acceptability scenario. In the first case emissions were cut by between 58% and 72% by 2050; in the second case by between 68% and 81%, depending on the energy price assumptions. All these measures benefited jobs and economic growth, swiftly and durably cutting household spending on energy services. This offers a solid basis for gaining acceptability for low carbon trajectories; the process constitutes also a framework for consolidating collective learning centering on the acceptability of climate policies. - Highlights: • The article develops a ‘process-oriented’ low carbon scenario for France. • Stakeholders define a set of sectoral and fiscal ‘acceptable’ climate policies. • These policies are integrated within a technico-economic model Imaclim-R-France. • Economic impacts and CO 2 emission reductions are computed. •The co-development methodology favors joint production of solutions and shared vision-building

  8. Carbon-constrained scenarios. Final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2009-05-01

    This report provides the results of the study entitled 'Carbon-Constrained Scenarios' that was funded by FONDDRI from 2004 to 2008. The study was achieved in four steps: (i) Investigating the stakes of a strong carbon constraint for the industries participating in the study, not only looking at the internal decarbonization potential of each industry but also exploring the potential shifts of the demand for industrial products. (ii) Developing an hybrid modelling platform based on a tight dialog between the sectoral energy model POLES and the macro-economic model IMACLIM-R, in order to achieve a consistent assessment of the consequences of an economy-wide carbon constraint on energy-intensive industrial sectors, while taking into account technical constraints, barriers to the deployment of new technologies and general economic equilibrium effects. (iii) Producing several scenarios up to 2050 with different sets of hypotheses concerning the driving factors for emissions - in particular the development styles. (iv) Establishing an iterative dialog between researchers and industry representatives on the results of the scenarios so as to improve them, but also to facilitate the understanding and the appropriate use of these results by the industrial partners. This report provides the results of the different scenarios computed in the course of the project. It is a partial synthesis of the work that has been accomplished and of the numerous exchanges that this study has induced between modellers and stakeholders. The first part was written in April 2007 and describes the first reference scenario and the first mitigation scenario designed to achieve stabilization at 450 ppm CO 2 at the end of the 21. century. This scenario has been called 'mimetic' because it has been build on the assumption that the ambitious climate policy would coexist with a progressive convergence of development paths toward the current paradigm of industrialized countries: urban sprawl, general

  9. Projections of summertime ozone concentration over East Asia under multiple IPCC SRES emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jae-Bum; Cha, Jun-Seok; Hong, Sung-Chul; Choi, Jin-Young; Myoung, Ji-Su; Park, Rokjin J.; Woo, Jung-Hun; Ho, Changhoi; Han, Jin-Seok; Song, Chang-Keun

    2015-04-01

    We have developed the Integrated Climate and Air Quality Modeling System (ICAMS) through the one-way nesting of global-regional models to examine the changes in the surface ozone concentrations over East Asia under future climate scenarios. Model simulations have been conducted for the present period of 1996-2005 to evaluate the performance of ICAMS. The simulated surface ozone concentrations reproduced the observed monthly mean concentrations at sites in East Asia with high R2 values (0.4-0.9), indicating a successful simulation to capture both spatial and temporal variability. We then performed several model simulations with the six IPCC SRES scenarios (A2, A1B, A1FI, A1T, B1, and B2) for the next three periods, 2016-2025 (the 2020s), 2046-2055 (the 2050s), and 2091-2100 (the 2090s). The model results show that the projected changes of the annual daily mean maximum eight-hour (DM8H) surface ozone concentrations in summertime for East Asia are in the range of 2-8 ppb, -3 to 8 ppb, and -7 to 9 ppb for the 2020s, the 2050s, and the 2090s, respectively, and are primarily determined based on the emission changes of NOx and NMVOC. The maximum increases in the annual DM8H surface ozone and high-ozone events occur in the 2020s for all scenarios except for A2, implying that the air quality over East Asia is likely to get worse in the near future period (the 2020s) than in the far future periods (the 2050s and the 2090s). The changes in the future environment based on IPCC SRES scenarios would also influence the change in the occurrences of high-concentrations events more greatly than that of the annual DM8H surface ozone concentrations. Sensitivity simulations show that the emissions increase is the key factor in determining future regional surface ozone concentrations in the case of a developing country, China, whereas a developed country, Japan would be influenced more greatly by effects of the regional climate change than the increase in emissions.

  10. The EnerGEO Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA). Environmental assessment of scenarios as a web service

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blanc, Isabelle; Gschwind, Benoit; Lefevre, Mireille

    2013-01-01

    With the International Energy Agency estimating that global energy demand will increase between 40 and 50 percent by 2030 (compared to 2003), scientists and policymakers are concerned about the sustainability of the current energy system and what environmental pressures might result from the development of future energy systems. EnerGEO is an ongoing FP7 Project (2009-2013) which assesses the current and future impact of energy use on the environment by linking environmental observation systems with the processes involved in exploiting energy resources. The idea of this European project is to determine how low carbon scenarios, and in particular scenarios with a high share of renewable electricity, affect emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases (GHG) and contribute to mitigation of negative energy system impacts on human health and ecosystems. A Platform of Integrated Assessment (PIA) has been elaborated to provide impact results for a selection of scenarios via a set of models (large-scale energy models, Life Cycle Assessment models,..). This PIA is currently available through a web service. The concept of the PIA is detailed and to illustrate its interest, a set of results is given with the use of the simulation mode of the European version of GAINS for a selection of scenarios. (orig.)

  11. Biomass Scenario Model | Energy Analysis | NREL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biomass Scenario Model Biomass Scenario Model The Biomass Scenario Model (BSM) is a unique range of lignocellulosic biomass feedstocks into biofuels. Over the past 25 years, the corn ethanol plant matter (lignocellulosic biomass) to fermentable sugars for the production of fuel ethanol

  12. Energy scenarios for Colombia - Environmental Aspects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith, Ricardo A; Vesga A, Daniel R; Boman, Ulf

    2000-01-01

    The planning unit of the Colombian ministry of energy -UPME -has done an energy scenario project for Colombia with a 20-year horizon (vision year 2020) in this project the scenario methodology was used in a systemic way involving a great number of local and international energy experts. As a result four energy scenarios were designed and in all of them the possible evolution of all energy was analyzed. In this article a description of the used methodology is presented with the developed scenarios. Also a discussion of the long-range future environmental considerations in the energy sector, taking into account the developed scenarios, is presented. Finally some conclusions and recommendations are presented

  13. Scenario Planning as Organizational Intervention

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Balarezo, Jose; Nielsen, Bo Bernhard

    2017-01-01

    existing contributions on scenario planning within a new consolidating framework that includes antecedents, processes, and outcomes. The proposed framework allows for integration of the extant literature on scenario planning from a wide variety of fields, including strategic management, finance, human...... resource management, operations management, and psychology. Findings: This study contributes to research by offering a coherent and consistent framework for understanding scenario planning as a dynamic process. As such, it offers future researchers with a systematic way to ascertain where a particular......Purpose: This paper identifies four areas in need of future research to enhance our theoretical understanding of scenario planning, and sets the basis for future empirical examination of its effects on individual and organizational level outcomes. Design/methodology/approach: This paper organizes...

  14. Forty years of improvements in European air quality: regional policy-industry interactions with global impacts

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Crippa

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The EDGARv4.3.1 (Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research global anthropogenic emissions inventory of gaseous (SO2, NOx, CO, non-methane volatile organic compounds and NH3 and particulate (PM10, PM2.5, black and organic carbon air pollutants for the period 1970–2010 is used to develop retrospective air pollution emissions scenarios to quantify the roles and contributions of changes in energy consumption and efficiency, technology progress and end-of-pipe emission reduction measures and their resulting impact on health and crop yields at European and global scale. The reference EDGARv4.3.1 emissions include observed and reported changes in activity data, fuel consumption and air pollution abatement technologies over the past 4 decades, combined with Tier 1 and region-specific Tier 2 emission factors. Two further retrospective scenarios assess the interplay of policy and industry. The highest emission STAG_TECH scenario assesses the impact of the technology and end-of-pipe reduction measures in the European Union, by considering historical fuel consumption, along with a stagnation of technology with constant emission factors since 1970, and assuming no further abatement measures and improvement imposed by European emission standards. The lowest emission STAG_ENERGY scenario evaluates the impact of increased fuel consumption by considering unchanged energy consumption since the year 1970, but assuming the technological development, end-of-pipe reductions, fuel mix and energy efficiency of 2010. Our scenario analysis focuses on the three most important and most regulated sectors (power generation, manufacturing industry and road transport, which are subject to multi-pollutant European Union Air Quality regulations. Stagnation of technology and air pollution reduction measures at 1970 levels would have led to 129 % (or factor 2.3 higher SO2, 71 % higher NOx and 69 % higher PM2.5 emissions in Europe (EU27, demonstrating the large

  15. Effects on well-being of investing in cleaner air in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Warren; Striessnig, Erich; Schöpp, Wolfgang; Amann, Markus

    2013-01-01

    Over the past decade, India has experienced rapid economic growth along with increases in levels of air pollution. Our goal is to examine how alternative policies for air pollution abatement affect well-being there. In particular, we estimate the effects of policies to reduce the levels of ambient fine particulates (PM2.5), which are especially harmful to human health, on well-being, quantified using the United Nations' human development index (HDI). Two of the three dimensions of this index are based on gross domestic product (GDP) per capita and life expectancy. Our approach allows reductions in PM2.5 to affect both of them. In particular, economic growth is affected negatively through the costs of the additional pollution control measures and positively through the increased productivity of the population. We consider three scenarios of PM2.5 abatement, corresponding to no further control, current Indian legislation, and current European legislation. The overall effect in both control scenarios is that growth in GDP is virtually unaffected relative to the case of no further controls, life expectancy is higher, and well-being, as measured by the HDI, is improved. In India, air pollution abatement investments clearly improve well-being.

  16. Social Foundation of Scenario Planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rowland, Nicholas James; Spaniol, Matthew Jon

    2017-01-01

    In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors acknowle......In this article, the authors establish that models of scenario planning typically involve a series of phases, stages, or steps that imply a sequenced (i.e., linear or chronological) process. Recursive models, in contrast, allow phases to repeat, thus, incorporating iteration. The authors...... from science and technology studies (STS) on knowledge production, the authors explain transition from one phase to the next and iteration between and within phases based on social negotiation. To this end, the authors examine the interplay between the “scenario development” phase and the “scenario use......” phase of a planning process with a non-governmental organization in Denmark. The upshot for facilitators is practical insight into how transition between phases and phase iteration in scenario planning can be identified, leveraged, and, thus, managed. The upshot for scholars is a related insight...

  17. Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noah Scovronick

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil’s high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5 and ozone was 3.0 μg/m3 and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.

  18. Air Quality and Health Impacts of Future Ethanol Production and Use in São Paulo State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scovronick, Noah; França, Daniela; Alonso, Marcelo; Almeida, Claudia; Longo, Karla; Freitas, Saulo; Rudorff, Bernardo; Wilkinson, Paul

    2016-07-11

    It is often argued that liquid biofuels are cleaner than fossil fuels, and therefore better for human health, however, the evidence on this issue is still unclear. Brazil's high uptake of ethanol and role as a major producer makes it the most appropriate case study to assess the merits of different biofuel policies. Accordingly, we modeled the impact on air quality and health of two future fuel scenarios in São Paulo State: a business-as-usual scenario where ethanol production and use proceeds according to government predictions and a counterfactual scenario where ethanol is frozen at 2010 levels and future transport fuel demand is met with gasoline. The population-weighted exposure to fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone was 3.0 μg/m³ and 0.3 ppb lower, respectively, in 2020 in the scenario emphasizing gasoline compared with the business-as-usual (ethanol) scenario. The lower exposure to both pollutants in the gasoline scenario would result in the population living 1100 additional life-years in the first year, and if sustained, would increase to 40,000 life-years in year 20 and continue to rise. Without additional measures to limit emissions, increasing the use of ethanol in Brazil could lead to higher air pollution-related population health burdens when compared to policy that prioritizes gasoline.

  19. IPCC Special report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2001-01-01

    This special report on emissions scenarios (SRES) is intended to reflect the most recent trends in driving forces of emissions; population projections economic development, and structural and technological change. It serves as an update to IS92 scenarios developed by IPCC in the early 1990s to illustrate a plausible range of future greenhouse gas emissions. This update is based on a review of the literature and the development of a database of over 400 global and regional scenarios; 190 of these extend from 1900 to 2100 and thus fed into the development of the narrative scenarios and storylines. Based on the literature review, a set of four alternative scenario families, having a total of 40 emission scenarios have been developed. Each scenario family includes a narrative storyline which describes a demographic, social. economic, technological, environmental and policy future. Characteristic features of each of the four families are summarized and a comparison is made between the IS92 and SRES. One of the main conclusions of this recent scenario construction effort is the realization that alternative combinations of main scenario driving forces can lead to similar levels of GHG emissions by the end of the 21st century, and that scenarios with different underlying assumptions can result in very similar climate change

  20. Air temperature investigation in microenvironment around a human body

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Licina, Dusan; Melikov, Arsen Krikor; Sekhar, Chandra

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study is to investigate the temperature boundary layer around a human body in a quiescent indoor environment. The air temperature, mean in time and standard deviation of the temperature fluctuations around a breathing thermal manikin are examined in relation to the room temperature......, body posture and human respiratory flow. To determine to what extent the experiments represent the realistic scenario, the additional experiments were performed with a real human subject. The results show that at a lower room air temperature (20°C), the fluctuations of air temperature increased close...... to the surface of the body. The large standard deviation of air temperature fluctuations, up to 1.2°C, was recorded in the region of the chest, and up to 2.9°C when the exhalation was applied. The manikin leaned backwards increased the air temperature in the breathing zone, which was opposite from the forward...

  1. Scenarios for biofuels in the road transport sector - environmental and welfare economic consequences. Synthesis report from the REBECa project

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Frederiksen, P.

    2013-01-15

    The project, Renewable energy in the transport sector using biofuel as energy carrier (REBECa), aimed to investigate the potentials for providing biofuels for the road transport sector based on domestically cultivated bioenergy crops, and to analyse the consequences for air quality, land use, GHG emission and welfare economy. Moreover, a review of international perspectives on sustainability of biofuels was carried out. Different scenarios for the introduction of biofuels were developed - one aiming at 10 % share of biofuels in 2020, and another aiming at 25 % share in 2030. A forecast of the road transport until 2030 was produced and ensuing energy demand modelled. Estimates of the resulting demand for biomass, based on wheat grain, straw and rape, were introduced in agricultural scenarios of production and land use, and the possibilities for responding to the biomass requirements were analysed. Wellto-wheel emissions to air were calculated and impacts on air quality and health hazard investigated. Welfare economic effects corresponding to the well-to-wheel analytical framework were analysed. Results show that changes in air emissions (apart from CO{sub 2}) resulting from substitution of fossil fuel with biofuel were small, due to the general reduction of air emissions owing to EU policy implementation and technological development. The provision of sufficient home-grown bioenergy crops would at some stage influence the production of fodder. The overall results for fossil fuel reductions, CO{sub 2} emissions and the welfare economic costs using rape, wheat grain and straw as bioenergy crops, may point in opposite directions for the different fuels. While the largest gains in fossil fuel saving is related to the Rape Methyl Ester (RME) production chain, the welfare economic benefits show the largest positive results for 2{sup nd} generation biofuel. Results are highly dependent on decisions related to the analysis of co-products, and the prices of oil and wheat

  2. Effects of the Deregulation on the Concentration of the Brazilian Air Transportation Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guterres, Marcelo Xavier; Muller, Carlos

    2003-01-01

    This paper addresses the effects of the deregulation of the Brazilian air transportation industry in terms of the concentration of the market. We will show some metrics that are commonly used to study the concentration of the industry. This paper uses the Herfindhal- Hirschman Index. This index tends to zero in the competitive scenario, with a large number of small firms, and to one in case of a monopolistic scenario. The paper analyses the dynamics of the concentration of the Brazilian domestic air transportation market, in order to evaluate the effects of deregulation. We conclude that the Brazilian market presents oligopoly characteristics and aspects in its current structure that maintain the market concentrated in spite of the Deregulation measures adopted by the aeronautical authority. Keywords: Herfindhal-Hirschman Index, concentration, Deregulation

  3. Scenarios for gluino coannihilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, John [Theoretical Particle Physics and Cosmology Group, Department of Physics, King’s College London, London, WC2R 2LS United Kingdom (United Kingdom); Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Evans, Jason L. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); Luo, Feng [Theory Division, CERN,Geneva 23, CH-1211 (Switzerland); Olive, Keith A. [School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota,Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States); William I. Fine Theoretical Physics Institute, School of Physics and Astronomy, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN, 55455 (United States)

    2016-02-11

    We study supersymmetric scenarios in which the gluino is the next-to-lightest supersymmetric particle (NLSP), with a mass sufficiently close to that of the lightest supersymmetric particle (LSP) that gluino coannihilation becomes important. One of these scenarios is the MSSM with soft supersymmetry-breaking squark and slepton masses that are universal at an input GUT renormalization scale, but with non-universal gaugino masses. The other scenario is an extension of the MSSM to include vector-like supermultiplets. In both scenarios, we identify the regions of parameter space where gluino coannihilation is important, and discuss their relations to other regions of parameter space where other mechanisms bring the dark matter density into the range allowed by cosmology. In the case of the non-universal MSSM scenario, we find that the allowed range of parameter space is constrained by the requirement of electroweak symmetry breaking, the avoidance of a charged LSP and the measured mass of the Higgs boson, in particular, as well as the appearance of other dark matter (co)annihilation processes. Nevertheless, LSP masses m{sub χ}≲8 TeV with the correct dark matter density are quite possible. In the case of pure gravity mediation with additional vector-like supermultiplets, changes to the anomaly-mediated gluino mass and the threshold effects associated with these states can make the gluino almost degenerate with the LSP, and we find a similar upper bound.

  4. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    A scenario is given for ISABELLE which provides a plausible sequence of events from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  5. Scenario group summary

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thorndike, A.

    1976-01-01

    The scenario is given which provides a plausible sequence of events for ISABELLE from FY 1980 to 1990. No doubt reality will be quite different. The scenario is based on the construction schedule of the 1976 proposal. Assembly and testing of the accelerator will occur until the end of FY 1983, and the next six years will provide pp interactions for the initial high energy physics research. By 1990 any temporary conditions associated with start-up of ISABELLE should be a thing of the past and all experimental capabilities fully utilized

  6. Is liquid hydrogen a solution for mitigating air pollution by airports?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janic, Milan [OTB Research Institute, Delft University of Technology Jaffalaan 9, 2628 BX Delft (Netherlands)

    2010-03-15

    This paper investigates the potential of LH{sub 2} (Liquid Hydrogen) as an alternative fuel for achieving more sustainable long-term development of large airports in terms of mitigating their air pollution. For such purpose, a methodology for quantifying the potential of LH{sub 2} is developed. It consists of two models: the first model enables the estimation of the fuel demand and the specification of the fuel production and storage capacity needed to satisfy that demand at a given airport under given conditions; the other model enables assessment of the effects of introducing LH{sub 2} on mitigating air pollution at that airport. The main inputs for the methodology are scenarios of the long-term growth of air traffic demand at the airport in terms of the annual number of ATM (Air Transport Movements), i.e. flights and related LTO (Landing and Take-Off) cycles and their time characteristics, the aircraft fleet mix, characterized by the aircraft size and proportions of conventional and cryogenic aircraft, the fuel consumption per particular categories of aircraft/flights; and specifically, the fuel consumption and related emission rates of particular air pollutants by these aircraft during LTO cycles. The output from the methodology includes an estimation of the long-term development of demand at a given airport in terms of the volume and structure of ATM, which depend on: the scenarios of traffic growth and introduction of cryogenic aircraft, the required production and storage capacity of particular fuel types, the fuel consumed, and the quantities of related air pollutants emitted during LTO cycles carried out during the period concerned. The airport planners and policy makers can use the methodology for estimating, planning, design, and managing the fuel production and storage capacity, as well as for setting a cap on the air pollution depending of the circumstances. (author)

  7. Economic assessment of energetic scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Grandjean, Alain; Bureau, Dominique; Schubert, Katheline; Henriet, Fanny; Maggiar, Nicolas; Criqui, Patrick; Le Teno, Helene; Baumstark, Luc; Crassous, Renaud; Roques, Fabien

    2013-09-01

    This publication gathers contributions proposed by different members of the Economic Council for a Sustainable Development (CEDD) on the issue of energy transition, and more precisely on scenarios elaborated with respect to energy transition. A first set of contributions addresses models of energy transition (assessment of scenario costs to reach a factor 4; the issue of de-carbonation of energy consumption; study of ELECsim, a tool to highlight costs of scenarios of evolution of the electric power system). The second part addresses arbitrations and choice assessment (the importance of social and economic impacts of scenarios; challenges related to the joint definition of the discount rate and of the evolution of carbon value in time; the issue of assessment of the integration of renewable energies into the power system)

  8. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin; Warren, Drake Edward; Hayden, Nancy Kay; Passell, Howard D.; Malczynski, Leonard A.; Backus, George A.

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  9. Nuclear Security Futures Scenarios.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keller, Elizabeth James Kistin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Warren, Drake Edward [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hayden, Nancy Kay [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Passell, Howard D. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Malczynski, Leonard A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Backus, George A. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-01-01

    This report provides an overview of the scenarios used in strategic futures workshops conducted at Sandia on September 21 and 29, 2016. The workshops, designed and facilitated by analysts in Center 100, used scenarios to enable thought leaders to think collectively about the changing aspects of global nuclear security and the potential implications for the US Government and Sandia National Laboratories.

  10. Assessment of nuclear power scenarios allowing for matrix behavior in radiological impact modeling of disposal scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tronche, E.; Boussier, H.

    2000-01-01

    Under the provisions of the 1991 French radioactive waste management law, various fuel cycle scenarios will be assessed and compared in terms of feasibility, flexibility, cost, and ultimate waste radio-toxic inventory. The latter criterion may be further broken down into 'potential radio-toxic inventory' (the radio-toxic inventory of all the radionuclides produced) and 'residual radio-toxic inventory' (the radionuclide fraction reaching the biosphere after migration from the repository). The innovative scientific contribution of this study is to consider a third type of radio-toxic inventory: the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning, i.e. taking into account the containment capacity of the radionuclide conditioning matrices. The matrix fraction subjected to alteration over time determines the potential for radionuclide release, hence the notion of the potential radio-toxic inventory after conditioning. An initial comparison of possible scenarios is proposed by considering orders of magnitude for the radionuclide containment capacity of the disposal matrices and for their mobilization potential. All the scenarios investigated are normalized to the same annual electric power production so that a legitimate comparison can be established for the ultimate wasteform produced per year of operation. This approach reveals significant differences among the scenarios considered that do not appear when only the raw potential radio-toxic inventory is taken into account. The matrix containment performance has a decisive effect on the final impact of a given scenario or type of scenario. Pu recycling scenarios thus reduce the potential radio-toxicity by roughly a factor of 50 compared with an open cycle; the gain rises to a factor of about 300 for scenarios in which Pu and the minor actinides are recycled. Interestingly, the results obtained by the use of a dedicated containment matrix for the minor actinides in a scenario limited to Pu recycling were comparable to

  11. Climate scenarios for California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cayan, Daniel R.; Maurer, Ed; Dettinger, Mike; Tyree, Mary; Hayhoe, Katharine; Bonfils, Celine; Duffy, Phil; Santer, Ben

    2006-01-01

    Possible future climate changes in California are investigated from a varied set of climate change model simulations. These simulations, conducted by three state-of-the-art global climate models, provide trajectories from three greenhouse gas (GHG) emission scenarios. These scenarios and the resulting climate simulations are not “predictions,” but rather are a limited sample from among the many plausible pathways that may affect California’s climate. Future GHG concentrations are uncertain because they depend on future social, political, and technological pathways, and thus the IPCC has produced four “families” of emission scenarios. To explore some of these uncertainties, emissions scenarios A2 (a medium-high emissions) and B1 (low emissions) were selected from the current IPCC Fourth climate assessment, which provides several recent model simulations driven by A2 and B1 emissions. The global climate model simulations addressed here were from PCM1, the Parallel Climate Model from the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) and U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) group, and CM2.1 from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Geophysical Fluids Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL).

  12. Climate and health implications of future aerosol emission scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Partanen, Antti-Ilari; Landry, Jean-Sébastien; Damon Matthews, H.

    2018-02-01

    Anthropogenic aerosols have a net cooling effect on climate and also cause adverse health effects by degrading air quality. In this global-scale sensitivity study, we used a combination of the aerosol-climate model ECHAM-HAMMOZ and the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model to assess the climate and health effects of aerosols emissions from three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5) and two new (LOW and HIGH) aerosol emission scenarios derived from RCP4.5, but that span a wider spectrum of possible future aerosol emissions. All simulations had CO2 emissions and greenhouse gas forcings from RCP4.5. Aerosol forcing declined similarly in the standard RCP aerosol emission scenarios: the aerosol effective radiative forcing (ERF) decreased from -1.3 W m-2 in 2005 to between -0.1 W m-2 and -0.4 W m-2 in 2100. The differences in ERF were substantially larger between LOW (-0.02 W m-2 in 2100) and HIGH (-0.8 W m-2) scenarios. The global mean temperature difference between the simulations with standard RCP aerosol emissions was less than 0.18 °C, whereas the difference between LOW and HIGH reached 0.86 °C in 2061. In LOW, the rate of warming peaked at 0.48 °C per decade in the 2030s, whereas in HIGH it was the lowest of all simulations and never exceeded 0.23 °C per decade. Using present-day population density and baseline mortality rates for all scenarios, PM2.5-induced premature mortality was 2 371 800 deaths per year in 2010 and 525 700 in 2100 with RCP4.5 aerosol emissions; in HIGH, the premature mortality reached its maximum value of 2 780 800 deaths per year in 2030, whereas in LOW the premature mortality at 2030 was below 299 900 deaths per year. Our results show potential trade-offs in aerosol mitigation with respect to climate change and public health as ambitious reduction of aerosol emissions considerably increased warming while decreasing mortality.

  13. Scenario development methods and practice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2001-01-01

    The safe management of radioactive waste is an essential aspect of all nuclear power programmes. Although a general consensus has been reached in OECD countries on the use of geological repositories for the disposal of high-level radioactive waste, analysis of the long-term safety of these repositories, using performance assessment and other tools, is required prior to implementation. The initial stage in developing a repository safety assessment is the identification of all factors that may be relevant to the long-term safety of the repository and their combination to form scenarios. This must be done in a systematic and transparent way in order to assure the regulatory authorities that nothing important has been forgotten. Scenario development has become the general term used to describe the collection and organisation of the scientific and technical information necessary to assess the long-term performance or safety of radioactive waste disposal systems. This includes the identification of the relevant features, events and processes (FEPs), the synthesis of broad models of scientific understanding, and the selection of cases to be calculated. Scenario development provides the overall framework in which the cases and their calculated consequences can be discussed, including biases or shortcomings due to omissions or lack of knowledge. The NEA Workshop on Scenario Development was organised in Madrid, in May 1999, with the objective of reviewing developments in scenario methodologies and applications in safety assessments since 1992. The outcome of this workshop is the subject of this book. It is a review of developments in scenario methodologies based on a large body of practical experience in safety assessments. It will be of interest to radioactive waste management experts as well as to other specialists involved in the development of scenario methodologies. (author)

  14. Health and cost impact of air pollution from biomass burning over the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eslami, E.; Sadeghi, B.; Choi, Y.

    2017-12-01

    Effective assessment of health and cost effects of air pollution associated with wildfire events is critical for supporting sustainable management and policy analysis to reduce environmental damages. Since biomass burning events result in higher ozone, PM2.5, and NOx concentration values in urban regions due to long-range transport, preliminary results indicated that wildfire events cause a considerable increase in incident estimates and costs. This study aims to evaluate the health and cost impact of biomass burning events over the continental United States using combined air quality and health impact modeling. To meet this goal, a comprehensive air quality modeling scenarios containing biomass burning emissions were conducted using the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system from 2011 to 2014 with a spatial resolution of 12 km. The modeling period includes fire seasons between April and October over the course of four years. By using modeled pollutants concentrations, the USEPA's GIS-based computer program Environmental Benefits Mapping and Analysis Program-Community Edition (BenMAP-CE) provides an inclusive figure of health and cost impact caused by changing gaseous and particulate air pollution due to fire events. The basis of BenMAP-CE is the use of a damage-function approach to estimate the health impact of an applied change in air quality by comparing a biomass burning scenario (the one that includes wildfire events) with a baseline scenario (without biomass emissions). This approach considers several factors containing population, exposure to the pollutants, adverse health effects of a particular pollutant, and economic costs. Hence, this study made it capable of showing how biomass burning across U.S. influences people's health in different months, seasons, and regions. Besides, the cost impact of the wildfire events during study periods has also been estimated at both national and regional levels. The results of this study demonstrate the

  15. Scenario simulation based assessment of subsurface energy storage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beyer, C.; Bauer, S.; Dahmke, A.

    2014-12-01

    Energy production from renewable sources such as solar or wind power is characterized by temporally varying power supply. The politically intended transition towards renewable energies in Germany („Energiewende") hence requires the installation of energy storage technologies to compensate for the fluctuating production. In this context, subsurface energy storage represents a viable option due to large potential storage capacities and the wide prevalence of suited geological formations. Technologies for subsurface energy storage comprise cavern or deep porous media storage of synthetic hydrogen or methane from electrolysis and methanization, or compressed air, as well as heat storage in shallow or moderately deep porous formations. Pressure build-up, fluid displacement or temperature changes induced by such operations may affect local and regional groundwater flow, geomechanical behavior, groundwater geochemistry and microbiology. Moreover, subsurface energy storage may interact and possibly be in conflict with other "uses" like drinking water abstraction or ecological goods and functions. An utilization of the subsurface for energy storage therefore requires an adequate system and process understanding for the evaluation and assessment of possible impacts of specific storage operations on other types of subsurface use, the affected environment and protected entities. This contribution presents the framework of the ANGUS+ project, in which tools and methods are developed for these types of assessments. Synthetic but still realistic scenarios of geological energy storage are derived and parameterized for representative North German storage sites by data acquisition and evaluation, and experimental work. Coupled numerical hydraulic, thermal, mechanical and reactive transport (THMC) simulation tools are developed and applied to simulate the energy storage and subsurface usage scenarios, which are analyzed for an assessment and generalization of the imposed THMC

  16. Effects of Oxidation on Oxidation-Resistant Graphite

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Windes, William [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Smith, Rebecca [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Carroll, Mark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-05-01

    The Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) Graphite Research and Development Program is investigating doped nuclear graphite grades that exhibit oxidation resistance through the formation of protective oxides on the surface of the graphite material. In the unlikely event of an oxygen ingress accident, graphite components within the VHTR core region are anticipated to oxidize so long as the oxygen continues to enter the hot core region and the core temperatures remain above 400°C. For the most serious air-ingress accident which persists over several hours or days the continued oxidation can result in significant structural damage to the core. Reducing the oxidation rate of the graphite core material during any air-ingress accident would mitigate the structural effects and keep the core intact. Previous air oxidation testing of nuclear-grade graphite doped with varying levels of boron-carbide (B4C) at a nominal 739°C was conducted for a limited number of doped specimens demonstrating a dramatic reduction in oxidation rate for the boronated graphite grade. This report summarizes the conclusions from this small scoping study by determining the effects of oxidation on the mechanical strength resulting from oxidation of boronated and unboronated graphite to a 10% mass loss level. While the B4C additive did reduce mechanical strength loss during oxidation, adding B4C dopants to a level of 3.5% or more reduced the as-fabricated compressive strength nearly 50%. This effectively minimized any benefits realized from the protective film formed on the boronated grades. Future work to infuse different graphite grades with silicon- and boron-doped material as a post-machining conditioning step for nuclear components is discussed as a potential solution for these challenges in this report.

  17. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique M.; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, Rob; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Akcakaya, H. Resit; Den Belder, Eefje; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia I.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel T.J.; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura M.; Peterson, Garry D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke M.; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Van Vuuren, Detlef|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/11522016X

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  18. Trust and the illusive force of scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Selin, Cynthia Lea

    2006-01-01

    formulation and decision-making. By definition, scenarios are possible versions of the future so judging and evaluating scenarios is thus not about revealing truthfulness, but rather demonstrating trust, reliability, credibility in the absence of truth and in the face of varied influences and possible...... becomes interesting is how scenarios convey authority and trustworthiness. How is it that scenarios attain and maintain power to compel people to action, change their worldview, or influence the directions of decisions or consensus? This piece examines the process, participation and products of scenario...

  19. Characterizing the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposures to ozone.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dionisio, Kathie L; Nolte, Christopher G; Spero, Tanya L; Graham, Stephen; Caraway, Nina; Foley, Kristen M; Isaacs, Kristin K

    2017-05-01

    The impact of climate change on human and environmental health is of critical concern. Population exposures to air pollutants both indoors and outdoors are influenced by a wide range of air quality, meteorological, behavioral, and housing-related factors, many of which are also impacted by climate change. An integrated methodology for modeling changes in human exposures to tropospheric ozone (O 3 ) owing to potential future changes in climate and demographics was implemented by linking existing modeling tools for climate, weather, air quality, population distribution, and human exposure. Human exposure results from the Air Pollutants Exposure Model (APEX) for 12 US cities show differences in daily maximum 8-h (DM8H) exposure patterns and levels by sex, age, and city for all scenarios. When climate is held constant and population demographics are varied, minimal difference in O 3 exposures is predicted even with the most extreme demographic change scenario. In contrast, when population is held constant, we see evidence of substantial changes in O 3 exposure for the most extreme change in climate. Similarly, we see increases in the percentage of the population in each city with at least one O 3 exposure exceedance above 60 p.p.b and 70 p.p.b thresholds for future changes in climate. For these climate and population scenarios, the impact of projected changes in climate and air quality on human exposure to O 3 are much larger than the impacts of changing demographics. These results indicate the potential for future changes in O 3 exposure as a result of changes in climate that could impact human health.

  20. The role of fusion power in energy scenarios. Proposed method and review of existing scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lako, P; Ybema, J.R.; Seebregts, A.J.

    1998-04-01

    The European Commission wishes more insight in the potential role of fusion energy in the second half of the 21st century. Therefore, several scenario studies are carried out in the so-called macro-task Long Term Scenarios to investigate the potential role of fusion power in the energy system. The main contribution of ECN to the macro-task is to perform a long term energy scenario study for Western Europe with special focus on the role of fusion power. This interim report gives some methodological considerations for such an analysis. A discussion is given on the problems related to the long time horizon of the scenario study such as the forecast of technological innovations, the selection of appropriate discount rates and the links with climate change. Key parameters which are expected to have large effects on the role and cost-effectiveness are discussed in general terms. The key parameters to be varied include level and structure of energy demand, availability and prices of fossil energy, CO2 reduction policy, discount rates, cost and potential of renewable energy sources, availability of fission power and CO2 capture and disposal and the cost and the maximum rate of market growth of fusion power. The scenario calculations are to be performed later in the project with the help of an existing cost minimisation model of the Western European energy system. This MARKAL model is briefly introduced. The results of the model calculations are expected to make clear under which combinations of scenario parameters fusion power is needed and how large the expected financial benefits will be. The present interim report also gives an evaluation of existing energy scenarios with respect to the role of fusion power. 18 refs

  1. A multi-model assessment of the co-benefits of climate mitigation for global air quality

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rao, Shilpa; Klimont, Zbigniew; Leitao, Joana; Riahi, Keywan; van Dingenen, Rita; Reis, Lara Aleluia; Calvin, Katherine; Dentener, Frank; Drouet, Laurent; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harmsen, Mathijs; Luderer, Gunnar; Heyes, Chris; Strefler, Jessica; Tavoni, Massimo; van Vuuren, Detlef P.

    2016-12-01

    The recent International Panel on Climate change (IPCC) report identifies significant co-benefits from climate policies on near-term ambient air pollution and related human health outcomes [1]. This is increasingly relevant for policy making as the health impacts of air pollution are a major global concern- the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study identifies outdoor air pollution as the sixth major cause of death globally [2]. Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are an effective tool to evaluate future air pollution outcomes across a wide range of assumptions on socio-economic development and policy regimes. The Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) [3] were the first set of long-term global scenarios developed across multiple integrated assessment models that provided detailed estimates of a number of air pollutants until 2100. However these scenarios were primarily designed to cover a defined range of radiative forcing outcomes and thus did not specifically focus on the interactions of long-term climate goals on near-term air pollution impacts. More recently, [4] used the RCP4.5 scenario to evaluate the co-benefits of global GHG reductions on air quality and human health in 2030. [5-7] have further examined the interactions of more diverse pollution control regimes with climate policies. This paper extends the listed studies in a number of ways. Firstly it uses multiple IAMs to look into the co-benefits of a global climate policy for ambient air pollution under harmonized assumptions on near-term air pollution control. Multi-model frameworks have been extensively used in the analysis of climate change mitigation pathways, and the structural uncertainties regarding the underlying mechanisms (see for example [8-10]. This is to our knowledge the first time that a multi-model evaluation has been specifically designed and applied to analyze the co-benefits of climate change policy on ambient air quality, thus enabling a better understanding of at a detailed

  2. Medium-Range Air Quality Forecast During the Beijing Olympic Games

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Y.; Smith, J.; Wang, Z.; Luo, L.; Wu, Q.

    2008-12-01

    Prior to the XXIX Olympiad in Beijing, air quality was a major concern for many athletes and visitors to the Games. In response to the need for enhanced air quality forecasts, we explored and tested the capability of medium-range air quality forecasting in a multimodel ensemble system. The system consists of the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with Chemistry module (WRF-Chem), the Fifth-Generation NCAR/PennState Mesoscale Model (MM5), and the Nested Air Quality Prediction Modeling System (NAQPMS) developed at the Institute of Atmospheric Physics (IAP). Both MM5 and NAQPMS have been in operational use to produce short-term air quality forecasts. WRFChem is the major addition to the multimodel system. Forced with the forecast from the NCEP Global Ensemble Forecast System (GENS) at the lateral boundary, the multimodel system makes ensemble air quality forecasts out to 16 days with emission scenarios that reflect measures for the Olympics, including the closing down of factories around the city and beyond, a traffic control program that reduced the number of automobiles around the city by about half and elimination of all construction activities. Analyses of two forecasts are presented in this study. They were made on 5 August 2008 and 8 August 2008, both covering the entire Olympic period. Each forecast consists of three ensemble members that were produced with the same regional model but were forced by the control and two 'extremes' of the GENS forecast. The two extreme members were hand-picked to represent the best and worst case scenarios. The forecasts are evaluated with observations taken during the Olympic Games that include satellite observations, in-situ meteorological stations, LIDAR and air quality observations at the IAP tower site, 1 km away from the 'Bird Nest'. The analyses show good model skill in the first 3 days and generally satisfactory after 96 hours, with a successful forecast of potential pollution episode on 20 August 2008. The challenge

  3. F4E R and D programme and results on in-vessel dust and tritium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Guern, F.; Gulden, W.; Ciattaglia, S.; Counsell, G.; Bengaouer, A.; Brinster, J.; Dabbene, F.; Denkevitz, A.; Jordan, T.; Kuznetsov, M.; Porfiri, M.T.; Redlinger, R.; Roblin, Ph.; Roth, J.; Segre, J.; Sugiyama, K.; Tkatschenko, I.; Xu, Z.

    2011-01-01

    In a Tokamak vacuum vessel, plasma-wall interactions can result in the production of radioactive dust and H isotopes (including tritium) can be trapped both in in-vessel material and in dust. The vacuum vessel represents the most important confinement barrier to this radioactive material. In the event of an accident involving ingress of steam to the vacuum vessel, hydrogen could be produced by chemical reactions with hot metal and dust. Hydrogen isotopes could also be desorbed from in-vessel components, e.g. cryopumps. In events where an ingress of air to the vacuum vessel occurs, reaction of the air with hydrogen and/or dust therefore cannot be completely excluded. Due to the radiological risks highlighted by the safety evaluation studies for ITER in normal conditions (e.g. in-vessel maintenance chronic release) and accidental ones (e.g. challenge of vacuum vessel tightness in the event of a hydrogen/dust explosion with air), limitations on the accumulation of dust and tritium in the vacuum vessel are imposed as well as controls over the maximum extent of the quantity of accidental air ingress. ITER IO has defined a strategy for the control of in-vessel dust and tritium inventories below the safety limits based primarily on the measurement and removal of dust and tritium. In this context, this paper will report on the efforts under F4E responsibility to develop a number of the new ITER baseline systems. In particular this paper, after a review of safety constraints and ITER strategy, provides the status of: (1) tasks being launched on diagnostics for in-vessel dust inventory measurement, (2) experiments to enrich the data about the effectiveness of desorption of tritium from Be at 350 o C (divertor baking aiming to release significant amount of tritium trapped in Be co-deposit), (3) on-going R and D programme (experimental and numerical simulation) at FZK, CEA and ENEA on in-vacuum vessel H2 dust explosion.

  4. Multiscale scenarios for nature futures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rosa, Isabel M.D.; Pereira, Henrique Miguel; Ferrier, Simon; Alkemade, J.R.M.; Acosta, Lilibeth A.; Resit Akcakaya, H.; Belder, den E.; Fazel, Asghar M.; Fujimori, Shinichiro; Harfoot, Mike; Harhash, Khaled A.; Harrison, Paula A.; Hauck, Jennifer; Hendriks, Rob J.J.; Hernández, Gladys; Jetz, Walter; Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, S.I.S.E.; Kim, Hyejin; King, Nicholas; Kok, Marcel; Kolomytsev, Grygoriy O.; Lazarova, Tanya; Leadley, Paul; Lundquist, Carolyn J.; García Márquez, Jaime; Meyer, Carsten; Navarro, Laetitia M.; Nesshöver, Carsten; Ngo, Hien T.; Ninan, Karachepone N.; Palomo, Maria G.; Pereira, Laura; Peterson, G.D.; Pichs, Ramon; Popp, Alexander; Purvis, Andy; Ravera, Federica; Rondinini, Carlo; Sathyapalan, Jyothis; Schipper, Aafke; Seppelt, Ralf; Settele, Josef; Sitas, Nadia; Vuuren, van D.

    2017-01-01

    Targets for human development are increasingly connected with targets for nature, however, existing scenarios do not explicitly address this relationship. Here, we outline a strategy to generate scenarios centred on our relationship
    with nature to inform decision-making at multiple scales.

  5. Evaluating options for sustainable energy mixes in South Korea using scenario analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hong, Sanghyun; Bradshaw, Corey J.A.; Brook, Barry W.

    2013-01-01

    To mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, coal-fired electricity infrastructure needs to be replaced by low-carbon electricity generation options. Here we examine a range of possible alternative scenarios for sustainable electricity generation in South Korea, considering both physical and economic limits of current technologies. The results show that South Korea cannot achieve a 100% renewable energy mix and requires at least 55 GW of backup capacity. Given that constraint, we modelled seven scenarios: (i) the present condition, (ii) the First National Electricity Plan configuration, (iii) renewable energy (including 5 GW photovoltaic) with fuel cells or (iv) natural gas backup, (v) maximum renewable energy (including 75 GW photovoltaic) with natural gas, (vi) maximum nuclear power, and (vii) nuclear power with natural gas. We then quantify levelised cost of electricity, energy security, greenhouse gas emissions, fresh water consumption, heated water discharge, land transformation, air pollutant emissions, radioactive waste disposal, solid waste disposal and safety issues for each modelled mix. Our analysis shows that the maximum nuclear power scenario yields the fewest overall negative impacts, and the maximum renewable energy scenario with fuel cells would have the highest negative impacts. - Highlights: ► Due to physical limits of renewable sources, renewable energy cannot provide total electricity consumption in South Korea. ► A massive expansion of solar power will act to save only a small amount of backup fuel at greatly increased costs. ► A huge supply of natural gas capacity is essential, due to the absence of feasible large-scale energy storage. ► A pathway to maximize renewable energy causes more environmental and economic disadvantages than the status quo. ► Maximizing nuclear power is the most sustainable option for South Korea

  6. TURVA-2012: Formulation of radionuclide release scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Marcos, Nuria; Hjerpe, Thomas; Snellman, Margit; Ikonen, Ari; Smith, Paul

    2014-01-01

    TURVA-2012 is Posiva's safety case in support of the Preliminary Safety Analysis Report (PSAR) and application for a construction licence for a repository for disposal of spent nuclear fuel at the Olkiluoto site in south-western Finland. This paper gives a summary of the scenarios and the methodology followed in formulating them as described in TURVA-2012: Formulation of Radionuclide Release Scenarios (Posiva, 2013). The scenarios are further analysed in TURVA-2012: Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System and TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment (Posiva, 2012a, 2012b). The formulation of scenarios takes into account the safety functions of the main barriers of the repository system and the uncertainties in the features, events, and processes (FEP) that may affect the entire disposal system (i.e. repository system plus the surface environment) from the emplacement of the first canister until the far future. In the report TURVA-2012: Performance Assessment (2012d), the performance of the engineered and natural barriers has been assessed against the loads expected during the evolution of the repository system and the site. Uncertainties have been identified and these are taken into account in the formulation of radionuclide release scenarios. The uncertainties in the FEP and evolution of the surface environment are taken into account in formulating the surface environment scenarios used ultimately in estimating radiation exposure. Formulating radionuclide release scenarios for the repository system links the reports Performance Assessment and Assessment of Radionuclide Release Scenarios for the Repository System. The formulation of radionuclide release scenarios for the surface environment brings together biosphere description and the surface environment FEP and is the link to the assessment of the surface environment scenarios summarised in TURVA-2012: Biosphere Assessment. (authors)

  7. Assessment of air quality benefits from national air pollution control policies in China. Part II: Evaluation of air quality predictions and air quality benefits assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Litao; Jang, Carey; Zhang, Yang; Wang, Kai; Zhang, Qiang; Streets, David; Fu, Joshua; Lei, Yu; Schreifels, Jeremy; He, Kebin; Hao, Jiming; Lam, Yun-Fat; Lin, Jerry; Meskhidze, Nicholas; Voorhees, Scott; Evarts, Dale; Phillips, Sharon

    2010-09-01

    Following the meteorological evaluation in Part I, this Part II paper presents the statistical evaluation of air quality predictions by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (U.S. EPA)'s Community Multi-Scale Air Quality (Models-3/CMAQ) model for the four simulated months in the base year 2005. The surface predictions were evaluated using the Air Pollution Index (API) data published by the China Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) for 31 capital cities and daily fine particulate matter (PM 2.5, particles with aerodiameter less than or equal to 2.5 μm) observations of an individual site in Tsinghua University (THU). To overcome the shortage in surface observations, satellite data are used to assess the column predictions including tropospheric nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) column abundance and aerosol optical depth (AOD). The result shows that CMAQ gives reasonably good predictions for the air quality. The air quality improvement that would result from the targeted sulfur dioxide (SO 2) and nitrogen oxides (NO x) emission controls in China were assessed for the objective year 2010. The results show that the emission controls can lead to significant air quality benefits. SO 2 concentrations in highly polluted areas of East China in 2010 are estimated to be decreased by 30-60% compared to the levels in the 2010 Business-As-Usual (BAU) case. The annual PM 2.5 can also decline by 3-15 μg m -3 (4-25%) due to the lower SO 2 and sulfate concentrations. If similar controls are implemented for NO x emissions, NO x concentrations are estimated to decrease by 30-60% as compared with the 2010 BAU scenario. The annual mean PM 2.5 concentrations will also decline by 2-14 μg m -3 (3-12%). In addition, the number of ozone (O 3) non-attainment areas in the northern China is projected to be much lower, with the maximum 1-h average O 3 concentrations in the summer reduced by 8-30 ppb.

  8. Automated Analysis of Infinite Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Buchholtz, Mikael

    2005-01-01

    The security of a network protocol crucially relies on the scenario in which the protocol is deployed. This paper describes syntactic constructs for modelling network scenarios and presents an automated analysis tool, which can guarantee that security properties hold in all of the (infinitely many...

  9. Accident scenario diagnostics with neural networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guo, Z.

    1992-01-01

    Nuclear power plants are very complex systems. The diagnoses of transients or accident conditions is very difficult because a large amount of information, which is often noisy, or intermittent, or even incomplete, need to be processed in real time. To demonstrate their potential application to nuclear power plants, neural networks axe used to monitor the accident scenarios simulated by the training simulator of TVA's Watts Bar Nuclear Power Plant. A self-organization network is used to compress original data to reduce the total number of training patterns. Different accident scenarios are closely related to different key parameters which distinguish one accident scenario from another. Therefore, the accident scenarios can be monitored by a set of small size neural networks, called modular networks, each one of which monitors only one assigned accident scenario, to obtain fast training and recall. Sensitivity analysis is applied to select proper input variables for modular networks

  10. Scenarios for Ecosystem Services: An Overview

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen R. Carpenter

    2006-06-01

    Full Text Available The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA scenarios address changes in ecosystem services and their implications for human well-being. Ecological changes pose special challenges for long-term thinking, because of the possibility of regime shifts that occur rapidly yet alter the availability of ecosystem services for generations. Moreover, ecological feedbacks can intensify human modification of ecosystems, creating a spiral of poverty and ecosystem degradation. Such complex dynamics were evaluated by a mixture of qualitative and quantitative analyses in the MA scenarios. Collectively, the scenarios explore problems such as the connections of poverty reduction and ecosystem services, and trade-offs among ecosystem services. Several promising approaches are considered by the scenarios, including uses of biodiversity to build resilience of ecosystem services, actively adaptive management, and green technology. Although the scenarios do not prescribe an optimal path, they illuminate the consequences of different policies toward ecosystem services.

  11. Economic evaluation of the air pollution effect on public health in China's 74 cities.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Li; Lei, Yalin; Pan, Dongyan; Yu, Chen; Si, Chunyan

    2016-01-01

    Air deterioration caused by pollution has harmed public health. The existing studies on the economic loss caused by a variety of air pollutants in multiple cities are lacking. To understand the effect of different pollutants on public health and to provide the basis of the environmental governance for governments, based on the dose-response relation and the willingness to pay, this paper used the latest available data of the inhalable particulate matter (PM10) and sulphur dioxide (SO2) from January 2015 to June 2015 in 74 cities by establishing the lowest and the highest limit scenarios. The results show that (1) in the lowest and highest limit scenario, the health-related economic loss caused by PM10 and SO2 represented 1.63 and 2.32 % of the GDP, respectively; (2) For a single city, in the lowest and the highest limit scenarios, the highest economic loss of the public health effect caused by PM10 and SO2 was observed in Chongqing; the highest economic loss of the public health effect per capita occurred in Hebei Baoding. The highest proportion of the health-related economic loss accounting for GDP was found in Hebei Xingtai. The main reason is that the terrain conditions are not conducive to the spread of air pollutants in Chongqing, Baoding and Xingtai, and the three cities are typical heavy industrial cities that are based on coal resources. Therefore, this paper proposes to improve the energy structure, use the advanced production process, reasonably control the urban population growth, and adopt the emissions trading system in order to reduce the economic loss caused by the effects of air pollution on public health.

  12. Development on quantitative safety analysis method of accident scenario. The automatic scenario generator development for event sequence construction of accident

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kojima, Shigeo; Onoue, Akira; Kawai, Katsunori

    1998-01-01

    This study intends to develop a more sophisticated tool that will advance the current event tree method used in all PSA, and to focus on non-catastrophic events, specifically a non-core melt sequence scenario not included in an ordinary PSA. In the non-catastrophic event PSA, it is necessary to consider various end states and failure combinations for the purpose of multiple scenario construction. Therefore it is anticipated that an analysis work should be reduced and automated method and tool is required. A scenario generator that can automatically handle scenario construction logic and generate the enormous size of sequences logically identified by state-of-the-art methodology was developed. To fulfill the scenario generation as a technical tool, a simulation model associated with AI technique and graphical interface, was introduced. The AI simulation model in this study was verified for the feasibility of its capability to evaluate actual systems. In this feasibility study, a spurious SI signal was selected to test the model's applicability. As a result, the basic capability of the scenario generator could be demonstrated and important scenarios were generated. The human interface with a system and its operation, as well as time dependent factors and their quantification in scenario modeling, was added utilizing human scenario generator concept. Then the feasibility of an improved scenario generator was tested for actual use. Automatic scenario generation with a certain level of credibility, was achieved by this study. (author)

  13. Daily Cycle of Air Temperature and Surface Temperature in Stone Forest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, K.; Li, Y.; Wang, X.; Yuan, M.

    2013-12-01

    Urbanization is one of the most profound human activities that impact on climate change. In cities, where are highly artificial areas, the conflict between human activity and natural climate is particularly prominent. Urban areas always have the larger area of impervious land, the higher consumption of greenhouse gases, more emissions of anthropogenic heat and air pollution, all contribute to the urban warming phenomena. Understanding the mechanisms causing a variety of phenomena involved in the urban warming is critical to distinguish the anthropogenic effect and natural variation in the climate change. However, the exact dynamics of urban warming were poorly understood, and effective control strategies are not available. Here we present a study of the daily cycle of air temperature and surface temperature in Stone Forest. The specific heat of the stones in the Stone Forest and concrete of the man-made structures within the cities are approximate. Besides, the height of the Stone Forest and the height of buildings within the city are also similar. As a scenic area, the Stone Forest is being preserved and only opened for sightseeing. There is no anthropogenic heat, as well air pollution within the Stone Forest. The thermal environment in Stone Forest can be considered to be a simulation of thermal environment in the city, which can reveal the effect of man-made structures on urban thermal environment. We conducted the field studies and numerical analysis in the Stone Forest for 4 typical urban morphology and environment scenarios, including high-rise compact cities, low-rise sparse cities, garden cities and isolated single stone. Air temperature and relative humidity were measured every half an hour in 15 different locations, which within different spatial distribution of stones and can represent the four urban scenarios respectively. At the same time, an infrared camera was used to take thermal images and get the hourly surface temperatures of stones and

  14. Development of a new methodology for the creation of water temperature scenarios using frequency analysis tool.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Val, Jonatan; Pino, María Rosa; Chinarro, David

    2018-03-15

    Thermal quality in river ecosystems is a fundamental property for the development of biological processes and many of the human activities linked to the aquatic environment. In the future, this property is going to be threatened due to global change impacts, and basin managers will need useful tools to evaluate these impacts. Currently, future projections in temperature modelling are based on the historical data for air and water temperatures, and the relationship with past temperature scenarios; however, this represents a problem when evaluating future scenarios with new thermal impacts. Here, we analysed the thermal impacts produced by several human activities, and linked them with the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanism from natural systems measured with frequency analysis tools (wavelet coherence). Once this relationship has been established we develop a new methodology for simulating different thermal impacts scenarios in order to project them into future. Finally, we validate this methodology using a site that changed its thermal quality during the studied period due to human impacts. Results showed a high correlation (r 2 =0.84) between the decoupling degree of the thermal transfer mechanisms and the quantified human impacts, obtaining 3 thermal impact scenarios. Furthermore, the graphic representation of these thermal scenarios with its wavelet coherence spectrums showed the impacts of an extreme drought period and the agricultural management. The inter-conversion between the scenarios gave high morphological similarities in the obtained wavelet coherence spectrums, and the validation process clearly showed high efficiency of the developed model against old methodologies when comparing with Nash-Stucliffe criterion. Although there is need for further investigation with different climatic and anthropic management conditions, the developed frequency models could be useful in decision-making processes by managers when faced with future global

  15. Scenarios for the transportation sector's energy consumption in Denmark. Focus on road transport. Documentation report; Scenarier for transportsektorens energiforbrug i Danmark. Med fokus paa vejtransporten. Dokumentationsrapport

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hethey, J.; Kofoed-Wiuff, A.; Lindboe, H.H.

    2011-05-15

    The purpose of this project was to make a number of predictions of how the Danish energy consumption for transport purposes may evolve until 2035. The analyses include the total energy consumption for passenger and freight transport and transportation-related energy consumption in the production industry. Air and maritime transport and freight trains are not considered in the analyses. Five scenarios have been calculated, including a reference scenario, three technology scenarios (efficiency, electric vehicle, a biofuel scenario), and a combined scenario. For all scenarios, the development of fuel consumption is calculated and CO{sub 2} emissions both locally and totally are presented. The analyses show that the total energy consumption and total CO{sub 2} emission had a peak in 2007, after which the already registered decrease is likely to continue. This continued decline happens in spite of continued growth in transport services, primarily due to the assumed and expected development of more fuel-efficient cars. (ln)

  16. CATS-based Air Traffic Controller Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callantine, Todd J.

    2002-01-01

    -in-the-loop simulations are unquestionably valuable for this purpose, but pose considerable logistical, fiscal, and experimental control problems. First, data analysis is extremely complicated, owing simply to the large number of participants and data sources in such simulations. In addition, experienced human air traffic controllers working adjacent sectors tend to flexibly adapt to the evolving control problem - potentially shifting to other strategies than those under investigation. In addition, their performance is tightly coupled to the control interface, which in the development phase may support some concepts and supporting strategies better than others. A simple shift in strategy by one controller can change the character of a particular traffic scenario dramatically, which makes experimental comparison of ATC performance under different traffic scenarios difficult. Training a given team of controllers on operations under a new ATM concept for a sufficient period of time could avert such difficulties, but instituting an adequate training program is expensive and logistically difficult.

  17. Health Impact Assessment of Air Pollution in São Paulo, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karina Camasmie Abe

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Epidemiological research suggests that air pollution may cause chronic diseases, as well as exacerbation of related pathologies such as cardiovascular and respiratory morbidity and mortality. This study evaluates air pollution scenarios considering a Health Impact Assessment approach in São Paulo, Brazil. We have analyzed abatement scenarios of Particulate Matter (PM with an aerodynamic diameter <10 μm (PM10, <2.5 μm (PM2.5 and ozone concentrations and the health effects on respiratory and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in the period from 2009 to 2011 through the APHEKOM tool, as well as the associated health costs. Considering World Health Organization (WHO standards of PM2.5 (10 μg/m3, São Paulo would avoid more than 5012 premature deaths (equivalent to 266,486 life years’ gain and save US$15.1 billion annually. If São Paulo could even diminish the mean of PM2.5 by 5 μg/m3, nearly 1724 deaths would be avoided, resulting in a gain of US$ 4.96 billion annually. Reduced levels of PM10, PM2.5 and ozone could save lives and an impressive amount of money in a country where economic resources are scarce. Moreover, the reduced levels of air pollution would also lower the demand for hospital care, since hospitalizations would diminish. In this sense, Brazil should urgently adopt WHO air pollution standards in order to improve the quality of life of its population.

  18. Future Air Conditioning Energy Consumption in Developing Countriesand what can be done about it: The Potential of Efficiency in theResidential Sector

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McNeil, Michael A.; Letschert, Virginie E.

    2007-05-01

    The dynamics of air conditioning are of particular interestto energy analysts, both because of the high energy consumption of thisproduct, but also its disproportionate impact on peak load. This paperaddresses the special role of this end use as a driver of residentialelectricity consumption in rapidly developing economies. Recent historyhas shown that air conditioner ownership can grow grows more rapidly thaneconomic growth in warm-climate countries. In 1990, less than a percentof urban Chinese households owned an air conditioner; by 2003 this numberrose to 62 percent. The evidence suggests a similar explosion of airconditioner use in many other countries is not far behind. Room airconditioner purchases in India are currently growing at 20 percent peryear, with about half of these purchases attributed to the residentialsector. This paper draws on two distinct methodological elements toassess future residential air conditioner 'business as usual' electricityconsumption by country/region and to consider specific alternative 'highefficiency' scenarios. The first component is an econometric ownershipand use model based on household income, climate and demographicparameters. The second combines ownership forecasts and stock accountingwith geographically specific efficiency scenarios within a uniqueanalysis framework (BUENAS) developed by LBNL. The efficiency scenariomodule considers current efficiency baselines, available technologies,and achievable timelines for development of market transformationprograms, such as minimum efficiency performance standards (MEPS) andlabeling programs. The result is a detailed set of consumption andemissions scenarios for residential air conditioning.

  19. Useful global-change scenarios: current issues and challenges

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parson, E A

    2008-01-01

    Scenarios are increasingly used to inform global-change debates, but their connection to decisions has been weak and indirect. This reflects the greater number and variety of potential users and scenario needs, relative to other decision domains where scenario use is more established. Global-change scenario needs include common elements, e.g., model-generated projections of emissions and climate change, needed by many users but in different ways and with different assumptions. For these common elements, the limited ability to engage diverse global-change users in scenario development requires extreme transparency in communicating underlying reasoning and assumptions, including probability judgments. Other scenario needs are specific to users, requiring a decentralized network of scenario and assessment organizations to disseminate and interpret common elements and add elements requiring local context or expertise. Such an approach will make global-change scenarios more useful for decisions, but not less controversial. Despite predictable attacks, scenario-based reasoning is necessary for responsible global-change decisions because decision-relevant uncertainties cannot be specified scientifically. The purpose of scenarios is not to avoid speculation, but to make the required speculation more disciplined, more anchored in relevant scientific knowledge when available, and more transparent.

  20. Input parameters and scenarios, including economic inputs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boklund, Anette; Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq

    2012-01-01

    scenarios, we excluded hobby-type farms1 In the vaccination scenarios, herds within the vaccination zone were simulated to be vaccinated 14 days after detection of the first herd or when 10, 20, 30 or 50 herds were infected. All herds within the zones were simulated to be vaccinated. We used vaccination...... zones of either a 1, 2, 3 or 5 km. In some scenarios, hobby herds were not vaccinated. In one scenario, no sheep were vaccinated, and in another scenario no swine were vaccinated. from depopulation in zones. The resources for depopulation were estimated to 4,800 swine and 2,000 ruminants a day...

  1. FEATURES OF FORMATION SCENARIOS OF THE FOOD INDUSTRY

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Serhiy Nozhenko

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available The article is devoted to the topic – the invention of approaches to enterprise development oil and fat industry. The goal – to identify features of formation scenarios for the food industry. The chosen methodology allowed to analyze and evaluate the functioning of state enterprises. Results are discovering the benefits of scenario planning to find ways of business development. Novelty – a rationale for the use of scenario planning for enterprise development oil and fat industry, developing a set of scenarios. The practical significance – providing specific scenarios for enterprises of oil and fat industry. Keywords: scenario planning, scenario development, enterprise, oil and fat industry outlook. JEL: L 66

  2. FAST Plasma Scenarios and Equilibrium Configurations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Calabro, G.; Crisanti, F.; Ramogida, G.; Cardinali, A.; Cucchiaro, A.; Maddaluno, G.; Pizzuto, A.; Pericoli Ridolfini, V.; Tuccillo, A.A.; Zonca, F.; Albanese, R.; Granucci, G.; Nowak, S.

    2008-01-01

    In this paper we present the Fusion Advanced Studies Torus (FAST) plasma scenarios and equilibrium configurations, designed to reproduce the ITER ones (with scaled plasma current) and suitable to fulfil plasma conditions for integrated studies of burning plasma physics, Plasma Wall interaction, ITER relevant operation problems and Steady State scenarios. The attention is focused on FAST flexibility in terms of both performance and physics that can be investigated: operations are foreseen at a wide range of parameters from high performance H-Mode (toroidal field, B T , up to 8.5 T; plasma current, I P , up to 8 MA) to advanced tokamak (AT) operation (I P =3 MA) as well as full non inductive current scenario (I P =2 MA). The coupled heating power is provided with 30MW delivered by an Ion Cyclotron Resonance Heating (ICRH) system (30-90MHz), 6 MW by a Lower Hybrid (LH) system (3.7 or 5 GHz) for the long pulse AT scenario, 4 MW by an Electron Cyclotron Resonant Heating (ECRH) system (170 GHz-B T =6T) for MHD and electron heating localized control and, eventually, with 10 MW by a Negative Ion Beam (NNBI), which the ports are designed to accommodate. In the reference H-mode scenario FAST preserves (with respect to ITER) fast ions induced as well as turbulence fluctuation spectra, thus, addressing the cross-scale couplings issue of micro- to meso-scale physics. The noninductive scenario at I P =2MA is obtained with 60-70 % of bootstrap and the remaining by LHCD. Predictive simulations of the H-mode scenarios described above have been performed by means of JETTO code, using a semi-empirical mixed Bohm/gyro-Bohm transport model. Plasma position and Shape Control studies are also presented for the reference scenario

  3. Application of Frequency of Detection Methods in Design and Optimization of the INL Site Ambient Air Monitoring Network

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rood, Arthur S. [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Sondrup, A. Jeffrey [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2015-11-01

    This report presents an evaluation of a hypothetical INL Site monitoring network and the existing INL air monitoring network using frequency of detection methods. The hypothetical network was designed to address the requirement in 40 CFR Part 61, Subpart H (2006) that “emissions of radionuclides to ambient air from U.S. DOE facilities shall not exceed those amounts that would cause any member of the public to receive in any year an effective dose equivalent exceeding 10 mrem/year.” To meet the requirement for monitoring only, “radionuclide releases that would result in an effective dose of 10% of the standard shall be readily detectable and distinguishable from background.” Thus, the hypothetical network consists of air samplers placed at residence locations that surround INL and at other locations where onsite livestock grazing takes place. Two exposure scenarios were used in this evaluation: a resident scenario and a shepherd/rancher scenario. The resident was assumed to be continuously present at their residence while the shepherd/rancher was assumed to be present 24-hours at a fixed location on the grazing allotment. Important radionuclides were identified from annual INL radionuclide National Emission Standards for Hazardous Pollutants reports. Important radionuclides were defined as those that potentially contribute 1% or greater to the annual total dose at the radionuclide National Emission Standards for Hazardous Pollutants maximally exposed individual location and include H-3, Am-241, Pu-238, Pu 239, Cs-137, Sr-90, and I-131. For this evaluation, the network performance objective was set at achieving a frequency of detection greater than or equal to 95%. Results indicated that the hypothetical network for the resident scenario met all performance objectives for H-3 and I-131 and most performance objectives for Cs-137 and Sr-90. However, all actinides failed to meet the performance objectives for most sources. The shepherd/rancher scenario showed

  4. The Effect of Future Ambient Air Pollution on Human Premature Mortality to 2100 Using Output from the ACCMIP Model Ensemble

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, Raquel A.; West, J. Jason; Lamarque, Jean-Francois; Shindell, Drew T.; Collins, William J.; Dalsoren, Stig; Faluvegi, Greg; Folberth, Gerd; Horowitz, Larry W.; Nagashima, Tatsuya; hide

    2016-01-01

    Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM(sub 2.5)) is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs), the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM(sub 2.5) in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths per year), likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382000 (121000 to 728000) deaths per year in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths per year in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM(sub 2.5) concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios, due to

  5. The effect of future ambient air pollution on human premature mortality to 2100 using output from the ACCMIP model ensemble

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. A. Silva

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available Ambient air pollution from ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5 is associated with premature mortality. Future concentrations of these air pollutants will be driven by natural and anthropogenic emissions and by climate change. Using anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions projected in the four Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCPs, the ACCMIP ensemble of chemistry–climate models simulated future concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 at selected decades between 2000 and 2100. We use output from the ACCMIP ensemble, together with projections of future population and baseline mortality rates, to quantify the human premature mortality impacts of future ambient air pollution. Future air-pollution-related premature mortality in 2030, 2050 and 2100 is estimated for each scenario and for each model using a health impact function based on changes in concentrations of ozone and PM2.5 relative to 2000 and projected future population and baseline mortality rates. Additionally, the global mortality burden of ozone and PM2.5 in 2000 and each future period is estimated relative to 1850 concentrations, using present-day and future population and baseline mortality rates. The change in future ozone concentrations relative to 2000 is associated with excess global premature mortality in some scenarios/periods, particularly in RCP8.5 in 2100 (316 thousand deaths year−1, likely driven by the large increase in methane emissions and by the net effect of climate change projected in this scenario, but it leads to considerable avoided premature mortality for the three other RCPs. However, the global mortality burden of ozone markedly increases from 382 000 (121 000 to 728 000 deaths year−1 in 2000 to between 1.09 and 2.36 million deaths year−1 in 2100, across RCPs, mostly due to the effect of increases in population and baseline mortality rates. PM2.5 concentrations decrease relative to 2000 in all scenarios

  6. Quantifying the co-impacts of energy sector decarbonisation on outdoor air pollution in the United Kingdom

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lott, Melissa C.; Pye, Steve; Dodds, Paul E.

    2017-01-01

    The energy sector is a major contributor to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and other types of air pollution that negatively impact human health and the environment. Policy targets to achieve decarbonisation goals for national energy systems will therefore impact levels of air pollution. Advantages can be gained from considering these co-impacts when analysing technology transition scenarios in order to avoid tension between climate change and air quality policies. We incorporated non-GHG air pollution into a bottom-up, technoeconomic energy systems model that is at the core of UK decarbonisation policy development. We then used this model to assess the co-impacts of decarbonisation on other types of air pollution and evaluated the extent to which transition pathways would be altered if these other pollutants were considered. In a scenario where the UK meets its existing decarbonisation targets to 2050, including the costs of non-GHG air pollution led to a 40% and 45% decrease in PM_1_0 and PM_2_._5 pollution (respectively) between 2010 and 2050 due to changes in technology choice in residential heating. Conversely, limited change in the pollution profile for transportation were observed, suggesting that other policy strategies will be necessary to reduce pollution from transport. - Highlights: • Strategies to decarbonise energy systems should consider other air pollutants. • Energy systems models can show decarbonisation pathway co-impacts on PM, NO_x and SO_x. • Considering non-GHG pollution eliminates carbon & air quality policy tensions. • Transport particulate pollution challenges will only be addressed by modal shifting.

  7. Dynamic Modeling of Kosovo's Electricity Supply-Demand, Gaseous Emissions and Air Pollution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sadik Bekteshi

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper is described the developing of an integrated electricity supply–demand, gaseous emission and air pollution model for study of possible baseline electricity developments and available options to mitigate emissions. This model is constructed in STELLA software, which makes use of Systems Dynamics Modeling as the methodology. Several baseline scenarios have been developed from this model and a set of options of possible developments of Kosovo's Electricity Supply–Demand and Gaseous Emissions are investigated. The analysis of various scenarios results in medium growth scenarios (MGS that imply building of generation capacities and increase in participation of the electricity generation from renewable sources. MGS would be 10% of the total electricity generation and ensure sustainable development of the electricity sector. At the same time, by implementation of new technologies, this would be accompanied by reduced GHG (CO2 and NOx emissions by 60% and significant reduction for air pollutants (dust and SO2 by 40% compared to the business-as-usual (BAU case. Conclusively, obtained results show that building of new generation capacities by introducing new technologies and orientation on environmentally friendly energy sources can ensure sustainable development of the electricity sector in Kosovo.  

  8. A multi-scale health impact assessment of air pollution over the 21st century.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Likhvar, Victoria N; Pascal, Mathilde; Markakis, Konstantinos; Colette, Augustin; Hauglustaine, Didier; Valari, Myrto; Klimont, Zbigniew; Medina, Sylvia; Kinney, Patrick

    2015-05-01

    Ozone and PM₂.₅ are current risk factors for premature death all over the globe. In coming decades, substantial improvements in public health may be achieved by reducing air pollution. To better understand the potential of emissions policies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. We used consistent climate-air-quality-health modeling framework across three geographical scales (World, Europe and Ile-de-France) to assess future (2030-2050) health impacts of ozone and PM₂.₅ under two emissions scenarios (Current Legislation Emissions, CLE, and Maximum Feasible Reductions, MFR). Consistently across the scales, we found more reductions in deaths under MFR scenario compared to CLE. 1.5 [95% CI: 0.4, 2.4] million CV deaths could be delayed each year in 2030 compared to 2010 under MFR scenario, 84% of which would occur in Asia, especially in China. In Europe, the benefits under MFR scenario (219000 CV deaths) are noticeably larger than those under CLE (109,000 CV deaths). In Ile-de-France, under MFR more than 2830 annual CV deaths associated with PM₂.₅ changes could be delayed in 2050 compared to 2010. In Paris, ozone-related respiratory mortality should increase under both scenarios. Multi-scale HIAs can illustrate the difference in direct consequences of costly mitigation policies and provide results that may help decision-makers choose between different policy alternatives at different scales. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Wildfire air pollution hazard during the 21st century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knorr, Wolfgang; Dentener, Frank; Lamarque, Jean-François; Jiang, Leiwen; Arneth, Almut

    2017-07-01

    Wildfires pose a significant risk to human livelihoods and are a substantial health hazard due to emissions of toxic smoke. Previous studies have shown that climate change, increasing atmospheric CO2, and human demographic dynamics can lead to substantially altered wildfire risk in the future, with fire activity increasing in some regions and decreasing in others. The present study re-examines these results from the perspective of air pollution risk, focussing on emissions of airborne particulate matter (PM2. 5), combining an existing ensemble of simulations using a coupled fire-dynamic vegetation model with current observation-based estimates of wildfire emissions and simulations with a chemical transport model. Currently, wildfire PM2. 5 emissions exceed those from anthropogenic sources in large parts of the world. We further analyse two extreme sets of future wildfire emissions in a socio-economic, demographic climate change context and compare them to anthropogenic emission scenarios reflecting current and ambitious air pollution legislation. In most regions of the world, ambitious reductions of anthropogenic air pollutant emissions have the potential to limit mean annual pollutant PM2. 5 levels to comply with World Health Organization (WHO) air quality guidelines for PM2. 5. Worst-case future wildfire emissions are not likely to interfere with these annual goals, largely due to fire seasonality, as well as a tendency of wildfire sources to be situated in areas of intermediate population density, as opposed to anthropogenic sources that tend to be highest at the highest population densities. However, during the high-fire season, we find many regions where future PM2. 5 pollution levels can reach dangerous levels even for a scenario of aggressive reduction of anthropogenic emissions.

  10. Additive Manufacturing Materials Study for Gaseous Radiation Detection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Steer, C.A.; Durose, A.; Boakes, J. [AWE Aldermaston, Reading, Berkshire, RG7 4PR (United Kingdom)

    2015-07-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) techniques may lead to improvements in many areas of radiation detector construction; notably the rapid manufacturing time allows for a reduced time between prototype iterations. The additive nature of the technique results in a granular microstructure which may be permeable to ingress by atmospheric gases and make it unsuitable for gaseous radiation detector development. In this study we consider the application of AM to the construction of enclosures and frames for wire-based gaseous radiation tracking detectors. We have focussed on oxygen impurity ingress as a measure of the permeability of the enclosure, and the gas charging and discharging curves of several simplistic enclosure shapes are reported. A prototype wire-frame is also presented to examine structural strength and positional accuracy of an AM produced frame. We lastly discuss the implications of this study for AM based radiation detection technology as a diagnostic tool for incident response scenarios, such as the interrogation of a suspect radiation-emitting package. (authors)

  11. Additive Manufacturing Materials Study for Gaseous Radiation Detection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Steer, C.A.; Durose, A.; Boakes, J.

    2015-01-01

    Additive manufacturing (AM) techniques may lead to improvements in many areas of radiation detector construction; notably the rapid manufacturing time allows for a reduced time between prototype iterations. The additive nature of the technique results in a granular microstructure which may be permeable to ingress by atmospheric gases and make it unsuitable for gaseous radiation detector development. In this study we consider the application of AM to the construction of enclosures and frames for wire-based gaseous radiation tracking detectors. We have focussed on oxygen impurity ingress as a measure of the permeability of the enclosure, and the gas charging and discharging curves of several simplistic enclosure shapes are reported. A prototype wire-frame is also presented to examine structural strength and positional accuracy of an AM produced frame. We lastly discuss the implications of this study for AM based radiation detection technology as a diagnostic tool for incident response scenarios, such as the interrogation of a suspect radiation-emitting package. (authors)

  12. Impact on air quality of measures to reduce CO2 emissions from road traffic in Basel, Rotterdam, Xi'an and Suzhou

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Keuken, M.P.; Jonkers, S.; Verhagen, H.L.M.; Perez, L.; Truëb, S.; Okkerse, W.J.; Liu, J.; Pan, X.C.; Zheng, L.; Wang, H.; Xu, R.; Sabel, C.E.

    2014-01-01

    Two traffic scenarios to reduce CO2 emissions from road traffic in two European cities (Basel and Rotterdam) and two Chinese cities (Xi'an and Suzhou) were evaluated in terms of their impact on air quality. The two scenarios, one modelling a reduction of private vehicle kilometres driven by 10% on

  13. Air quality management and planning system for Guangzhou. Report from workshop 1, 1998

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larssen, Steinar

    1999-02-01

    The report is proceedings from Workshop no. 1, 1998 of the Sino-Norwegian co-operation project ''Guangzhou Air Quality Management and Planning System''. The project studies pollution emissions generally and from coal, vehicle and energy activities, dispersion modelling, monitoring, exposure, health damage assessment, material damage assessment, vegetation, control options, baseline scenario development, cost benefit analysis, pollution control management and policy instruments and air pollution forecasting. A forth workshop is planned. There are several reports from the various project activities

  14. Climate Strategy with CO2 Capture from the Air

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Keith, D.W. [Department of Chemical and Petroleum Engineering, University of Calgary, 2500 University Drive NW, Calgary, AB (Canada); Ha-Duong, M. [CNRS-CIRED, Campus du Jardin Tropical, 45 bis, av. de la Belle Gabrielle, 94736 Nogent sur Marne CEDEX (France); Stolaroff, J.K. [Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, 5000 Forbes Ave, Pittsburgh, PA 15213 (United States)

    2006-01-15

    It is physically possible to capture CO2 directly from the air and immobilize it in geological structures. Air capture differs from conventional mitigation in three key aspects. First, it removes emissions from any part of the economy with equal ease or difficulty, so its cost provides an absolute cap on the cost of mitigation. Second, it permits reduction in concentrations faster than the natural carbon cycle: the effects of irreversibility are thus partly alleviated. Third, because it is weakly coupled to existing energy infrastructure, air capture may offer stronger economies of scale and smaller adjustment costs than the more conventional mitigation technologies. We assess the ultimate physical limits on the amount of energy and land required for air capture and describe two systems that might achieve air capture at prices under 200 and 500 $/tC using current technology. Like geoengineering, air capture limits the cost of a worst-case climate scenario. In an optimal sequential decision framework with uncertainty, existence of air capture decreases the need for near-term precautionary abatement. The long-term effect is the opposite; assuming that marginal costs of mitigation decrease with time while marginal climate change damages increase, then air capture increases long-run abatement. Air capture produces an environmental Kuznets curve, in which concentrations are returned to preindustrial levels.

  15. The future bioclimatic conditions in Austria under the aspect of climate change scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudel, E.; Matzarakis, A.; Neumke, R.; Endler, Ch,; Koch, E.

    2009-09-01

    The IPCC quantifies Heat Stress as a combination of air temperature and air humidity. In order to describe the future bioclimatic conditions in a human-biometeorological manner the analysis a modern thermal index has been chosen. The PET (Physiologically Equivalent Temperature) allows the assessment of the effect of the thermal environment based on the energy balance of humans including thermo-physiological information. The data for the calculation of the PET came from climate models. The required data are for the climatic parameters air temperature, relative humidity, wind velocity and mean cloud cover as the necessary inputs for Physiologically Equivalents Temperature. Regarding future climatic changes PET calculations for the time slices 1961 and 1990 and also 2070 and 2100 have been run in 0.5 ° resolution. By the use of statistical regression for the 0.5 ° resolution the results have been downscaled to 1 km resolution in order to identify and quantify the areas in Austria, which will be more affected bioclimatologically. The constructed maps present current and future climatic conditions and also differences for the different time slices and SRES-scenarios of the IPCC. Maps of the difference between the Physiological Equivalent temperature and air temperature have been constructed to show that the used thermal indices, which have been applied by the IPCC underestimate the expected thermal bioclimate conditions for future climate. The results offer fundamental information for tourism and recreation authorities for present and expected climatic and bioclimatic conditions.

  16. Transportation energy scenario analysis technical report No. 1: examination of four existing scenarios. [Projections for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernard, M. J.; LaBelle, S. J.; Millar, M.; Walbridge, E. W.

    1978-03-01

    This project aims to provide the DOE Division of Transportation Energy Conservation (TEC) with a long-range forecasting framework in which to evaluate potential changes to the U.S. Transportation system. This initial report examines four existing, but diverse, 50-year scenarios of the future. It describes the scenarios and summarizes the changes in the major transportation system variables that would occur through the year 2025 in each scenario. Projections of variables of interest to TEC are explored, including passenger or ton miles and energy consumption. Each is reported for 1985, 1995, 2010, and 2025 under four scenarios: success, moderate economic growth, energy crisis, and transformation. The philosophy of this project is that the transportation system must support future lifestyles; by examining potential future lifestyles the required transportation system changes can be deduced. The project: (a) develops a set of scenarios that span likely futures; (b) describes the lifestyles in each scenario in order; (c) determines the characteristics of the transportation system supporting those lifestyles; (d) indicates transportation technologies and policies necessary in that system; and (e) derives the energy characteristics of that system. The implications of the four existing scenarios are examined with emphasis on current TEC electric-vehicle development. This preliminary investigation will be followed by detailed-scenario building (modifying existing scenarios or developing new ones) and generation of lifestyles and transportation system demands under each of the scenarios. This work will be reported in October 1978.

  17. Investigation of Prescribed Fires Impacts on Air Quality in the Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ravi, V.; Chung, S. H.; Vaughan, J. K.; Lamb, B. K.

    2014-12-01

    Emissions from wildland and prescribed fires cause significant aerosol loading in the atmospheric environment. Using 2011 NEI-Fire emission inventory, we investigate the impacts of prescribed fire emissions on the air quality of the Pacific Northwest (PNW) for a month long period in October-November 2011. This study utilizes the AIRAPCT-4 regional air quality forecasting system, which is based on the WRF-SMOKE-CMAQ framework. We simulate three different emission scenarios - 1) emissions with prescribed fires, 2) emissions without prescribed fires and 3) a scenario where prescribed fire emissions are reduced by 60%. AIRPACT-4 results are examined for impacts of prescribed fire emissions on ambient levels of PM2.5 and Ozone for entire PNW. We also look at the contribution of prescribed fire emissions to ambient PM2.5 concentrations for selected non-attainment areas in the PNW. This work supports the analysis of using woody residue as a feedstock for an aviation biofuel supply chain through the Northwest Advanced Renewables Alliance (NARA).

  18. The Impact of a Potential Shale Gas Development in Germany and the United Kingdom on Local and Regional Air Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weger, L.; Lupascu, A.; Cremonese, L.; Butler, T. M.

    2017-12-01

    Numerous countries in Europe that possess domestic shale gas reserves are considering exploiting this unconventional gas resource as part of their energy transition agenda. While natural gas generates less CO2 emissions upon combustion compared to coal or oil, making it attractive as a bridge in the transition from fossil fuels to renewables, production of shale gas leads to emissions of CH4 and air pollutants such as NOx, VOCs and PM. These gases in turn influence the climate as well as air quality. In this study, we investigate the impact of a potential shale gas development in Germany and the United Kingdom on local and regional air quality. This work builds on our previous study in which we constructed emissions scenarios based on shale gas utilization in these counties. In order to explore the influence of shale gas production on air quality, we investigate emissions predicted from our shale gas scenarios with the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) model. In order to do this, we first design a model set-up over Europe and evaluate its performance for the meteorological and chemical parameters. Subsequently we add shale gas emissions fluxes based on the scenarios over the area of the grid in which the shale gas activities are predicted to occur. Finally, we model these emissions and analyze the impact on air quality on both a local and regional scale. The aims of this work are to predict the range of adverse effects on air quality, highlight the importance of emissions control strategies in reducing air pollution, to promote further discussion, and to provide policy makers with information for decision making on a potential shale gas development in the two study countries.

  19. Current and future climate- and air pollution-mediated impacts on human health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Doherty, Ruth M; Heal, Mathew R; Wilkinson, Paul; Pattenden, Sam; Vieno, Massimo; Armstrong, Ben; Atkinson, Richard; Chalabi, Zaid; Kovats, Sari; Milojevic, Ai; Stevenson, David S

    2009-12-21

    We describe a project to quantify the burden of heat and ozone on mortality in the UK, both for the present-day and under future emission scenarios. Mortality burdens attributable to heat and ozone exposure are estimated by combination of climate-chemistry modelling and epidemiological risk assessment. Weather forecasting models (WRF) are used to simulate the driving meteorology for the EMEP4UK chemistry transport model at 5 km by 5 km horizontal resolution across the UK; the coupled WRF-EMEP4UK model is used to simulate daily surface temperature and ozone concentrations for the years 2003, 2005 and 2006, and for future emission scenarios. The outputs of these models are combined with evidence on the ozone-mortality and heat-mortality relationships derived from epidemiological analyses (time series regressions) of daily mortality in 15 UK conurbations, 1993-2003, to quantify present-day health burdens. During the August 2003 heatwave period, elevated ozone concentrations > 200 microg m-3 were measured at sites in London and elsewhere. This and other ozone photochemical episodes cause breaches of the UK air quality objective for ozone. Simulations performed with WRF-EMEP4UK reproduce the August 2003 heatwave temperatures and ozone concentrations. There remains day-to-day variability in the high ozone concentrations during the heatwave period, which on some days may be explained by ozone import from the European continent.Preliminary calculations using extended time series of spatially-resolved WRF-EMEP4UK model output suggest that in the summers (May to September) of 2003, 2005 & 2006 over 6000 deaths were attributable to ozone and around 5000 to heat in England and Wales. The regional variation in these deaths appears greater for heat-related than for ozone-related burdens.Changes in UK health burdens due to a range of future emission scenarios will be quantified. These future emissions scenarios span a range of possible futures from assuming current air quality

  20. Transitional dispersive scenarios driven by mesoscale flows on complex terrain under strong dry convective conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. L. Palau

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available By experimentation and modelling, this paper analyses the atmospheric dispersion of the SO2 emissions from a power plant on complex terrain under strong convective conditions, describing the main dispersion features as an ensemble of "stationary dispersive scenarios" and reformulating some "classical" dispersive concepts to deal with the systematically monitored summer dispersive scenarios in inland Spain. The results and discussions presented arise from a statistically representative study of the physical processes associated with the multimodal distribution of pollutants aloft and around a 343-m-tall chimney under strong dry convective conditions in the Iberian Peninsula. This paper analyses the importance of the identification and physical implications of transitional periods for air quality applications. The indetermination of a transversal plume to the preferred transport direction during these transitional periods implies a small (or null physical significance of the classical definition of horizontal standard deviation of the concentration distribution.

  1. MIV Project: Mission scenario

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravazzotti, Mariolina T.; Jørgensen, John Leif; Thuesen, Gøsta

    1997-01-01

    Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions.......Under the ESA contract #11453/95/NL/JG(SC), aiming at assessing the feasibility of Rendez-vous and docking of unmanned spacecrafts, a msiision scenario was defined. This report describes the secquence of manouvres and task allocations for such missions....

  2. An Experiment on Graph Analysis Methodologies for Scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brothers, Alan J.; Whitney, Paul D.; Wolf, Katherine E.; Kuchar, Olga A.; Chin, George

    2005-09-30

    Visual graph representations are increasingly used to represent, display, and explore scenarios and the structure of organizations. The graph representations of scenarios are readily understood, and commercial software is available to create and manage these representations. The purpose of the research presented in this paper is to explore whether these graph representations support quantitative assessments of the underlying scenarios. The underlying structure of the scenarios is the information that is being targeted in the experiment and the extent to which the scenarios are similar in content. An experiment was designed that incorporated both the contents of the scenarios and analysts’ graph representations of the scenarios. The scenarios’ content was represented graphically by analysts, and both the structure and the semantics of the graph representation were attempted to be used to understand the content. The structure information was not found to be discriminating for the content of the scenarios in this experiment; but, the semantic information was discriminating.

  3. Action research Toolkit II: The Scenario Workshop

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Lauge Baungaard

    2003-01-01

    The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice.......The article describes the scenario workshop within the action research paradigm. In addtion, the maina phases and the functions of the facilitator and the participants are outlined. Finally,it describes and analyses the experiences of using the scenario workshop in practice....

  4. Water use implications of biofuel scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teter, J.; Mishra, G. S.; Yeh, S.

    2012-12-01

    Existing studies rely upon attributional lifecycle analysis (LCA) approaches to estimate water intensity of biofuels in liters of irrigated/evapotranspiration water consumed for biofuel production. Such approaches can be misleading. From a policy perspective, a better approach is to compare differential water impacts among scenarios on a landscape scale. We address the shortcomings of existing studies by using consequential LCA, and incorporate direct and indirect land use (changes) of biofuel scenarios, marginal vs. average biofuel water use estimates, future climate, and geographic heterogeneity. We use the outputs of a partial equilibrium economic model, climate and soil data, and a process-based crop-soil-climate-water model to estimate differences in green water (GW - directly from precipitation to soil) and blue water (BW - supplied by irrigation) use among three scenarios: (1) business-as-usual (BAU), (2) Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS) mandates, and (3) a national Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) plus the RFS scenario. We use spatial statistical methods to interpolate key climatic variables using daily climate observations for the contiguous USA. Finally, we use FAO's crop model AquaCrop to estimate the domestic GW and BW impacts of biofuel policies from 2007-2035. We assess the differences among scenarios along the following metrics: (1) crop area expansion at the county level, including prime and marginal lands, (2) crop-specific and overall annual/seasonal water balances including (a) water inflows (irrigation & precipitation), (b) crop-atmosphere interactions: (evaporation & transpiration) and (d) soil-water flows (runoff & soil infiltration), in mm 3 /acre over the relevant time period. The functional unit of analysis is the BW and GW requirements of biofuels (mm3 per Btu biofuel) at the county level. Differential water use impacts among scenarios are a primarily a function of (1) land use conversion, in particular that of formerly uncropped land classes

  5. Air Pollution and Climate Change Health Impact Assessment. The ACHIA Project

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kinney, P.L.

    2013-01-01

    Climate change may affect human health via interactions with air pollutants such as ozone and PM 2.5 . These air pollutants are linked to climate because they can be both affected by and have effects on climate. In coming decades, substantial, cost-effective improvements in public health may be achieved with well-planned strategies to mitigate climate impacts while also reducing health effects of ozone and PM 2.5 . Climate mitigation actions affect greenhouse pollutant emissions, including methane and black carbon, but also may affect other key air pollution precursors such as NOx, CO, and SOx. To better understand the potential of such strategies, studies are needed that assess possible future health impacts under alternative assumptions about future emissions and climate across multiple spatial scales. The overall objective of this project is to apply state of the art climate, air quality, and health modelling tools to assess future health impacts of ozone and PM 2.5 under different IPCCs scenario of climate change, focusing specifically on pollution-related health co-benefits which could be achieved under alternative climate mitigation pathways in the period 2030-2050. This question will be explored at three spatial scales: global, regional (Europe), and urban (Paris). ACHIA is comprised of an integrated set of four work packages: WP1. Global Climate and Air Pollution Impacts of Alternative Emissions Pathways; WP2. Climate and Air Quality at Regional and Urban Scales: Results for Europe and Paris; WP3. Health Impact Assessment; WP4. Dissemination, Evaluation, Management. ACHIA is designed to create an interdisciplinary approach to the impacts of climate change on health through air quality changes, and to start longer-term collaborations between communities. We expect the project to advance state of art across all WPs, with important implications for research groups around the world. A particular innovation of the project is the multi-scale aspect, i.e., the

  6. CIEMAT analyses of transition fuel cycle scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Alvarez-Velarde, F.; Gonzalez-Romero, E.M.

    2010-01-01

    The efficient design of strategies for the long-term sustainability of nuclear energy or the phase-out of this technology is possible after the study of transition scenarios from the current fuel cycle to a future one with advanced technologies and concepts. CIEMAT has participated in numerous fuel cycle scenarios studies for more than a decade and, from some years ago, special attention has been put in the study of transition scenarios. In this paper, the main characteristics of each studied transition scenario are described. The main results and partial conclusions of each scenario are also analyzed. As general conclusions of transition studies, we highlight that the advantages of advanced technologies in transition scenarios can be obtained by countries or regions with sufficiently large nuclear parks, with a long-term implementation of the strategy. For small countries, these advantages are also accessible with an affordable cost, by means of the regional collaboration during several decades. (authors)

  7. Scenarios of future energy intensities

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1992-01-01

    In this chapter, the authors present scenarios of potential change in energy intensities in the OECD countries and in the Soviet Union. These scenarios are meant to illustrate how intensities might evolve over the next 20 years given different conditions with respect to energy prices, energy-efficiency policies, and other key factors. Changes in intensity will also be affected by the rates of growth and stock turnover in each sector. They have not tried to forecast how activity levels and structure will evolve. However, the OECD scenarios assume a world in which GDP averages growth in the 2-3%/year range, with some differences among countries. For the Soviet Union, the degree and pace of intensity decline will be highly dependent on the success of the transition to a market economy; each scenario explicitly envisions a different degree of success. They have not constructed comparable scenarios for the developing countries. The scenarios presented in this chapter do not predict what will happen in the future. They believe, however, that they illustrate a plausible set of outcomes if energy prices, policies, programs, and other factors evolve as described in each case. With higher energy prices and vigorous policies and programs, intensities in the OECD countries in 2010 could be nearly 50% less on average than the level where trends seem to be point. In the former Soviet Union, a combination of rapid, successful economic reform and extra effort to improve energy efficiency might result in average intensity being nearly 40% less than in a slow reform case. And in the LDCs, a mixture of sound policies, programs, and energy pricing reform could also lead to intensities being far lower than they would be otherwise. 8 refs., 10 figs., 1 tab

  8. Methods for air cleaning system design and accident analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gregory, W.S.; Nichols, B.D.

    1987-01-01

    This paper describes methods, in the form of a handbook and five computer codes, that can be used for nuclear facility air cleaning system design and accident analysis. Four of the codes were developed primarily at the Los Alamos National Laboratory, and one was developed in France. Tools such as these are used to design ventilation systems in the mining industry but do not seem to be commonly used in the nuclear industry. For example, the Nuclear Air Cleaning Handbook is an excellent design reference, but it fails to include information on computer codes that can be used to aid in the design process. These computer codes allow the analyst to use the handbook information to form all the elements of a complete system design. Because these analysis methods are in the form of computer codes they allow the analyst to investigate many alternative designs. In addition, the effects of many accident scenarios on the operation of the air cleaning system can be evaluated. These tools originally were intended for accident analysis, but they have been used mostly as design tools by several architect-engineering firms. The Cray, VAX, and personal computer versions of the codes, an accident analysis handbook, and the codes availability will be discussed. The application of these codes to several design operations of nuclear facilities will be illustrated, and their use to analyze the effect of several accident scenarios also will be described

  9. Energy scenarios for the 21. century

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lauerman, V.

    2002-01-01

    The Canadian Energy Research Institute (CERI) has adopted a scenario approach in developing its energy outlook to 2025. These scenarios can be used in developing strategies to optimize opportunities and avoid the dangers that often accompany the more deterministic approach to forecasting. The scenarios are not predictions, but are instead feasible outcomes for the future. They encompass 5 major areas of uncertainty for the world energy market through 2025 that impact energy demand and fuel mix. These include the economy, technology, energy policy, resource availability, and market structure. The drivers for the energy scenarios are the environment, demography, economics, culture geopolitics and technology. The paper referred to the world energy market, the OECD energy markets, the non-OECD energy markets and the FSU energy markets under 3 energy scenarios including: (1) the material world in which the new economy drives the global economy, (2) a very dark Orwellian world in which there is a rise in terrorism and a breakdown in international cooperation, and (3) a utopia in which the major powers become increasingly serious about achieving sustainable development. 22 refs., 48 figs

  10. Future nuclear energy scenarios for Europe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roelofs, F.; Van Heek, A.

    2010-01-01

    Nuclear energy is back on the agenda worldwide. In order to prepare for the next decades and to set priorities in nuclear R and D and investment, market share scenarios are evaluated. This allows to identify the triggers which influence the market penetration of future nuclear reactor technologies. To this purpose, scenarios for a future nuclear reactor park in Europe have been analysed applying an integrated dynamic process modelling technique. Various market share scenarios for nuclear energy are derived including sub-variants with regard to the intra-nuclear options taken, e.g. introduction date of Gen-III (i.e. EPR) and Gen-IV (i.e. SCWR, HTR, FR) reactors, level of reprocessing, and so forth. The assessment was undertaken using the DANESS code which allows to provide a complete picture of mass-flow and economics of the various nuclear energy system scenarios. The analyses show that the future European nuclear park will exist of combinations of Gen-III and Gen-IV reactors. This mix will always consist of a set of reactor types each having its specific strengths. Furthermore, the analyses highlight the triggers influencing the choice between different nuclear energy deployment scenarios. In addition, a dynamic assessment is made with regard to manpower requirements for the construction of a future nuclear fleet in the different scenarios. (authors)

  11. Syria and Iran: what next? Three potential scenarios; Syrie, Iran: et maintenant? Trois scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tertrais, Bruno [Fondation pour la recherche strategique, 4 bis rue des Patures 75016 Paris (France)

    2013-10-15

    Now that the United Nations resolution has been voted, the most complicated task begins: ensuring that Syria entirely and definitively gets rid of its chemical arsenal, which unfortunately has every chance of enduring. In this respect three scenarios are possible, each of which would have different repercussions for the region, notably regarding the Iranian nuclear issue, which is now being considered in a new light following Hassan Rohani's charm offensive. Yet, these consequences could also have a profound and lasting effect on the relationship between the United States and its allies. In the first scenario the agreement with Syria will be applied in a satisfactory manner, and could serve as a positive example to Iran, which might be more inclined to signing a nuclear deal. To date, Ali Khamenei, the Supreme Guide, has been wary of the ongoing negotiations, considering that it is impossible to trust the Western States whose sole objective is the downfall of the Iranian regime. Russia, buoyed by its new role in the region, would contribute in a more constructive manner to the resolution of the Iranian nuclear issue... Care must be taken, however, as Iran could just as well conclude as a result of the events of the summer of 2013, particularly from U.S. procrastination, that Western States are not willing to use force in the Middle East, and thus on the contrary draw out the negotiations without fearing the possibility of a U.S. strike. According to the second scenario, Syria will not implement the agreement, the crisis will be renewed, and will end with a Western strike, most probably without a U.N. mandate. This scenario would boost the confidence of U.S. allies in the region, who have a tendency to doubt the United States' determination to defend them. This could be seen as a warning to Iran, but the lessons that Iran would take from this scenario would undoubtedly depend on the balance of power in Tehran at the time: the moderates would push for a deal to avoid

  12. Distribution and Room Air Mixing Risks to Retrofitted Homes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Burdick, A. [IBACOS, Inc., Pittsburgh, PA (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Energy efficiency upgrades reduce heating and cooling loads on a house. With enough load reduction and if the HVAC system warrants replacement, the HVAC system is often upgraded with a more efficient, lower capacity system that meets the loads of the upgraded house. For a single-story house with ceiling supply air diffusers, ducts are often removed and upgraded. For houses with ducts that are embedded in walls, the cost of demolition precludes the replacement of ducts. The challenge with the use of existing ducts is that the reduced airflow creates a decreased throw at the supply registers, and the supply air and room air do not mix well, leading to potential thermal comfort complaints. This project investigates this retrofit scenario. The issues and solutions discussed here are relevant to all climate zones, with emphasis on climates that require cooling.

  13. Air quality co-benefits of carbon pricing in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Mingwei; Zhang, Da; Li, Chiao-Ting; Mulvaney, Kathleen M.; Selin, Noelle E.; Karplus, Valerie J.

    2018-05-01

    Climate policies targeting energy-related CO2 emissions, which act on a global scale over long time horizons, can result in localized, near-term reductions in both air pollution and adverse human health impacts. Focusing on China, the largest energy-using and CO2-emitting nation, we develop a cross-scale modelling approach to quantify these air quality co-benefits, and compare them to the economic costs of climate policy. We simulate the effects of an illustrative climate policy, a price on CO2 emissions. In a policy scenario consistent with China's recent pledge to reach a peak in CO2 emissions by 2030, we project that national health co-benefits from improved air quality would partially or fully offset policy costs depending on chosen health valuation. Net health co-benefits are found to rise with increasing policy stringency.

  14. Comparison of future energy scenarios for Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kwon, Pil Seok; Østergaard, Poul Alberg

    2012-01-01

    Scenario-making is becoming an important tool in energy policy making and energy systems analyses. This article probes into the making of scenarios for Denmark by presenting a comparison of three future scenarios which narrate 100% renewable energy system for Denmark in 2050; IDA 2050, Climate...... Commission 2050, and CEESA (Coherent Energy and Environmental System Analysis). Generally, although with minor differences, the scenarios suggest the same technological solutions for the future such as expansion of biomass usage and wind power capacity, integration of transport sector into the other energy...

  15. Air quality management and planning system for Guangzhou. Report from workshop 1, 1998

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Larssen, Steinar

    1999-02-01

    The report is proceedings from Workshop no. 1, 1998 of the Sino-Norwegian co-operation project ''Guangzhou Air Quality Management and Planning System''. The project studies pollution emissions generally and from coal, vehicle and energy activities, dispersion modelling, monitoring, exposure, health damage assessment, material damage assessment, vegetation, control options, baseline scenario development, cost benefit analysis, pollution control management and policy instruments and air pollution forecasting. A forth workshop is planned. There are several reports from the various project activities.

  16. USING UML SCENARIOS IN B2B SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Jakimi

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Scenarios has become a popular technique for requirements elicitation and specification building. Since scenarios capture only partial descriptions of the system behavior, an approach for scenario composition and/or integration is needed to produce more complete specifications. The Unified Modeling Language (UML, which has become a standard notation for object-oriented modeling, provides a suitable framework for scenario acquisition using Use Case diagrams and Sequence or Collaboration diagrams. In this paper, we suggest an algorithmic and tool support for composing and integrating scenarios that are represented in form of sequence diagrams. We suggest four operators (;: sequential operator, ||: concurrent operator, ?: conditional operator and  * :iteration operator to compose a set of scenarios that describe a use case of a given system. In this paper, we suggest also to apply the scenario approach to B2B systems (Business to Business. We propose to develop B2B systems as a three activities process deriving formal specifications and code skeletons from UML scenarios. Activities of this proposed process are generally automatic and are supported by a set of developed algorithms and tools.

  17. Scenario Archetypes: Converging Rather than Diverging Themes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jon P. Sadler

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Future scenarios provide challenging, plausible and relevant stories about how the future could unfold. Urban Futures (UF research has identified a substantial set (>450 of seemingly disparate scenarios published over the period 1997–2011 and within this research, a sub-set of >160 scenarios has been identified (and categorized based on their narratives according to the structure first proposed by the Global Scenario Group (GSG in 1997; three world types (Business as Usual, Barbarization, and Great Transitions and six scenarios, two for each world type (Policy Reform—PR, Market Forces—MF, Breakdown—B, Fortress World—FW, Eco-Communalism—EC and New Sustainability Paradigm—NSP. It is suggested that four of these scenario archetypes (MF, PR, NSP and FW are sufficiently distinct to facilitate active stakeholder engagement in futures thinking. Moreover they are accompanied by a well-established, internally consistent set of narratives that provide a deeper understanding of the key fundamental drivers (e.g., STEEP—Social, Technological, Economic, Environmental and Political that could bring about realistic world changes through a push or a pull effect. This is testament to the original concept of the GSG scenarios and their development and refinement over a 16 year period.

  18. Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Besseghir, K.

    2013-06-01

    The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

  19. Free-boundary simulations of ITER advanced scenarios

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Besseghir, K.

    2013-06-15

    The successful operation of ITER advanced scenarios is likely to be a major step forward in the development of controlled fusion as a power production source. ITER advanced scenarios raise specific challenges that are not encountered in presently-operated tokamaks. In this thesis, it is argued that ITER advanced operation may benefit from optimal control techniques. Optimal control ensures high performance operation while guaranteeing tokamak integrity. The application of optimal control techniques for ITER operation is assessed and it is concluded that robust optimisation is appropriate for ITER operation of advanced scenarios. Real-time optimisation schemes are discussed and it is concluded that the necessary conditions of optimality tracking approach may potentially be appropriate for ITER operation, thus offering a viable closed-loop optimal control approach. Simulations of ITER advanced operation are necessary in order to assess the present ITER design and uncover the main difficulties that may be encountered during advanced operation. The DINA-CH and CRONOS full tokamak simulator is used to simulate the operation of the ITER hybrid and steady-state scenarios. It is concluded that the present ITER design is appropriate for performing a hybrid scenario pulse lasting more than 1000 sec, with a flat-top plasma current of 12 MA, and a fusion gain of Q ≅ 8. Similarly, a steady-state scenario without internal transport barrier, with a flat-top plasma current of 10 MA, and with a fusion gain of Q ≅ 5 can be realised using the present ITER design. The sensitivity of the advanced scenarios with respect to transport models and physical assumption is assessed using CRONOS. It is concluded that the hybrid scenario and the steady-state scenario are highly sensitive to the L-H transition timing, to the value of the confinement enhancement factor, to the heating and current drive scenario during ramp-up, and, to a lesser extent, to the density peaking and pedestal

  20. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, K.; Jones, Lucile M.; Ross, Stephanie L.; Borrero, J.; Bwarie, J.; Dykstra, D.; Geist, Eric L.; Johnson, L.; Kirby, Stephen H.; Long, K.; Lynett, P.; Miller, K.; Mortensen, Carl E.; Perry, S.; Plumlee, G.; Real, C.; Ritchie, L.; Scawthorn, C.; Thio, H.K.; Wein, Anne; Whitmore, P.; Wilson, R.; Wood, Nathan J.; Ostbo, Bruce I.; Oates, Don

    2013-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey and several partners operate a program called Science Application for Risk Reduction (SAFRR) that produces (among other things) emergency planning scenarios for natural disasters. The scenarios show how science can be used to enhance community resiliency. The SAFRR Tsunami Scenario describes potential impacts of a hypothetical, but realistic, tsunami affecting California (as well as the west coast of the United States, Alaska, and Hawaii) for the purpose of informing planning and mitigation decisions by a variety of stakeholders. The scenario begins with an Mw 9.1 earthquake off the Alaska Peninsula. With Pacific basin-wide modeling, we estimate up to 5m waves and 10 m/sec currents would strike California 5 hours later. In marinas and harbors, 13,000 small boats are damaged or sunk (1 in 3) at a cost of $350 million, causing navigation and environmental problems. Damage in the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach amount to $110 million, half of it water damage to vehicles and containerized cargo. Flooding of coastal communities affects 1800 city blocks, resulting in $640 million in damage. The tsunami damages 12 bridge abutments and 16 lane-miles of coastal roadway, costing $85 million to repair. Fire and business interruption losses will substantially add to direct losses. Flooding affects 170,000 residents and workers. A wide range of environmental impacts could occur. An extensive public education and outreach program is underway, as well as an evaluation of the overall effort.