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Sample records for adaptive peircean decision

  1. Adaptive Peircean decision aid project summary assessments.

    Senglaub, Michael E.

    2007-01-01

    This efforts objective was to identify and hybridize a suite of technologies enabling the development of predictive decision aids for use principally in combat environments but also in any complex information terrain. The technologies required included formal concept analysis for knowledge representation and information operations, Peircean reasoning to support hypothesis generation, Mill's's canons to begin defining information operators that support the first two technologies and co-evolutionary game theory to provide the environment/domain to assess predictions from the reasoning engines. The intended application domain is the IED problem because of its inherent evolutionary nature. While a fully functioning integrated algorithm was not achieved the hybridization and demonstration of the technologies was accomplished and demonstration of utility provided for a number of ancillary queries.

  2. A Peircean Inspired Typology of Print Advertising

    Andersen, Christian; Sørensen, Bent

    2010-01-01

    Based on the hypothesis that Peircean semiotics can reveal how the construction of comprehension is at least partly a function of the structure of composition, the scope of this article is to present a new categorization of print advertising. The categorization consists of six different advertising...... types and is developed on the basis of an analysis of 150 quarto-, half-, and full-page advertisements from the Danish morning paper Berlingske Tidende. There are basically two traditions in advertising research — a semiotic one and a cognitive one. But none of these traditions have been used to suggest...... a possible relation between composition and the effects of comprehension, as the conceptual foundation for a categorization seems, as does the Peircean variant of semiotics, to be very limited in advertising research as such. Generally seen, the purpose of the development of the present categorization...

  3. Neuronal adaptation effects in decision making

    Theodoni, Panagiota; Kovacs, Gyula; Mark W Greenlee; Deco, Gustavo

    2011-01-01

    Recently, there has been an increased interest on the neural mechanisms underlying perceptual decision making. However, the effect of neuronal adaptation in this context has not yet been studied. We begin our study by investigating how adaptation can bias perceptual decisions. We considered behavioral data from an experiment on high-level adaptation-related aftereffects in a perceptual decision task with ambiguous stimuli on humans. To understand the driving force behind the perceptual decisi...

  4. Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

    Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

    2014-10-01

    Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

  5. Decision-level adaptation in motion perception.

    Mather, George; Sharman, Rebecca J

    2015-12-01

    Prolonged exposure to visual stimuli causes a bias in observers' responses to subsequent stimuli. Such adaptation-induced biases are usually explained in terms of changes in the relative activity of sensory neurons in the visual system which respond selectively to the properties of visual stimuli. However, the bias could also be due to a shift in the observer's criterion for selecting one response rather than the alternative; adaptation at the decision level of processing rather than the sensory level. We investigated whether adaptation to implied motion is best attributed to sensory-level or decision-level bias. Three experiments sought to isolate decision factors by changing the nature of the participants' task while keeping the sensory stimulus unchanged. Results showed that adaptation-induced bias in reported stimulus direction only occurred when the participants' task involved a directional judgement, and disappeared when adaptation was measured using a non-directional task (reporting where motion was present in the display, regardless of its direction). We conclude that adaptation to implied motion is due to decision-level bias, and that a propensity towards such biases may be widespread in sensory decision-making. PMID:27019726

  6. Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

    Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

    2014-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years…

  7. Age Differences in Adaptive Decision Making: The Role of Numeracy

    Chen, Yiwei; Wang, Jiaxi; Kirk, Robert M.; Pethtel, Olivia L.; Kiefner, Allison E.

    2014-01-01

    The primary purposes of the present study were to examine age differences in adaptive decision making and to evaluate the role of numeracy in mediating the relationship between age and adaptive decision making. Adaptive decision making was assessed by the Cups task (Levin, Weller, Pederson, & Harshman, 2007). Forty-six younger (18 to 24 years old) and 37 older adults (61 to 89 years old) completed the Cups task. In addition, the Numeracy Scale (Lipkus, Samsa, & Rimer, 2001) was used to measur...

  8. Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

    Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

    2011-09-30

    This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

  9. Acquisition of Adaptation Knowledge for Breast Cancer Treatment Decision Support

    Lieber, Jean; D'Aquin, Mathieu; Bey, Pierre; Napoli, Amedeo; Rios, Maria; Sauvagnac, Catherine

    2003-01-01

    The elaboration of a treatment in cancerology depends on the particular practice of decision protocols. These protocols are often adapted rather than used straightforwardly. This paper deals with the acquisition of the knowledge exploited during protocol adaptations. It shows that this knowledge acquisition process can be based on similarity paths, that are used for representing the matchings between decision problems (e.g., source and target problems within a case-based reasoning process).

  10. Sequential Decision Making in Computational Sustainability via Adaptive Submodularity

    Krause, Andreas; ETH Zurich; Golovin, Daniel; Google; Converse, Sarah; USGS Patuxent Wildlife Research Center

    2014-01-01

    Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optim...

  11. The adaptability of career decision-making profiles.

    Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Dayan, Amira

    2012-10-01

    The Career Decision-Making Profiles questionnaire (CDMP; Gati, Landman, Davidovitch, Asulin-Peretz, & Gadassi, 2010) uses a new model for characterizing the way individuals make decisions based on the simultaneous use of 11 dimensions. The present study investigated which pole of each dimension is more adaptive. Using the data of 383 young adults who were about to make a career choice, we assessed the individuals' decision status and the associations of the dimensions Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties (EPCD; Saka, Gati, & Kelly, 2008) and personality factors (NEO Personality Inventory-Revised; Costa & McCrae, 1992). The results suggest that, as hypothesized, comprehensive Information gathering, analytic Information processing, a more internal Locus of control, more Effort invested, less Procrastination, greater Speed of making the final decision, less Dependence on others, and less Desire to please others were more adaptive in making career decisions. However, contrary to our hypotheses, high Aspiration for an ideal occupation was more adaptive for the decision-making process, Willingness to compromise was not associated with more adaptive decision making, and the results regarding Consulting with others were mixed. Gender differences in the CDMP dimensions and counseling implications are discussed. PMID:22746185

  12. Decision-making in healthcare as a complex adaptive system.

    Kuziemsky, Craig

    2016-01-01

    Healthcare transformation requires a change in how the business of healthcare is done. Traditional decision-making approaches based on stable and predictable systems are inappropriate in healthcare because of the complex nature of healthcare delivery. This article reviews challenges to using traditional decision-making approaches in healthcare and how insight from Complex Adaptive Systems (CAS) could support healthcare management. The article also provides a system model to guide decision-making in healthcare as a CAS. PMID:26656389

  13. An adaptive two-decision sequential target trajectory detection algorithm using the decision statistics of plots

    O. S. Neuimin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. The synthesis of an adaptive target trajectory detection algorithm having the opportunity along with the decision of the main tasks to perform SNR estimation is of great practical importance. For this simple complement sequential test is applied. Problem statement. The problem of the adaptive target trajectory detection can be formulated as a problem of a simple hypothesis sequential testing about the target track absence against the composite alternative with SNR estimating by using a minimum mean square error estimator. Development of an adaptive two-decision sequential target trajectory detection algorithm. In this section expressions for calculating the likelihood ratios and the SNR estimate are obtained. Effectiveness Analysis of Algorithm. Analysis of the adaptive algorithm is carried out as an example of target trajectory detection due to surveillance radar which measures range and range rate using the statistical modeling. The decision statistics related to noise- and target-originate measurements are described by an exponential distribution and Swerling 1 distribution respectively. With the purpose of comparative analysis, effectiveness analysis of non-adaptive sequential target trajectory detection algorithm based on the Wald test is also carried out. Conclusions. The developed adaptive algorithm reduces the decision time, as the decision in favor of the complex hypothesis of the target existence is taken without specifying simple hypothesis which having place. Average time true detection of false track when is reduced by 1.7 times compared to the non-adaptive two-decision algorithm.

  14. Optimal Decision Stimuli for Risky Choice Experiments: An Adaptive Approach.

    Cavagnaro, Daniel R; Gonzalez, Richard; Myung, Jay I; Pitt, Mark A

    2013-02-01

    Collecting data to discriminate between models of risky choice requires careful selection of decision stimuli. Models of decision making aim to predict decisions across a wide range of possible stimuli, but practical limitations force experimenters to select only a handful of them for actual testing. Some stimuli are more diagnostic between models than others, so the choice of stimuli is critical. This paper provides the theoretical background and a methodological framework for adaptive selection of optimal stimuli for discriminating among models of risky choice. The approach, called Adaptive Design Optimization (ADO), adapts the stimulus in each experimental trial based on the results of the preceding trials. We demonstrate the validity of the approach with simulation studies aiming to discriminate Expected Utility, Weighted Expected Utility, Original Prospect Theory, and Cumulative Prospect Theory models. PMID:24532856

  15. A Dynamic Model of Investor Decision-Making: How Adaptation to Losses Affects Future Selling Decisions

    Lee, K.M.C.; Kraussl, R.G.W.; Lucas, A.; Paas, L.J.

    2008-01-01

    We conduct an experiment to test whether the size of a loss and the time in a losing position affect investors’ adaptation to the loss situation and, subsequently, whether this adaptation affects future investment decisions. As investors adapt to losses, their neutral reference point shifts downwards causing losses to become psychologically less painful. This shift in reference point is a dynamic process that is updated every time new information is received about the stock’s performance. The...

  16. Adaptive Decision-Making Scheme for Cognitive Radio Networks

    Alqerm, Ismail

    2014-05-01

    Radio resource management becomes an important aspect of the current wireless networks because of spectrum scarcity and applications heterogeneity. Cognitive radio is a potential candidate for resource management because of its capability to satisfy the growing wireless demand and improve network efficiency. Decision-making is the main function of the radio resources management process as it determines the radio parameters that control the use of these resources. In this paper, we propose an adaptive decision-making scheme (ADMS) for radio resources management of different types of network applications including: power consuming, emergency, multimedia, and spectrum sharing. ADMS exploits genetic algorithm (GA) as an optimization tool for decision-making. It consists of the several objective functions for the decision-making process such as minimizing power consumption, packet error rate (PER), delay, and interference. On the other hand, maximizing throughput and spectral efficiency. Simulation results and test bed evaluation demonstrate ADMS functionality and efficiency.

  17. A Peircean approach to ‘information’ and its relationship with Bateson’s and Jablonka’s ideas

    Queiroz, João; Emmeche, Claus; El-Hani, Charbel Niño

    2008-01-01

    The Peircean semiotic approach to information that we developed in previous papers raises several new questions, and shows both similarities and differences with regard to other accounts of information. We do not intend to present here any exhaustive discussion about the relationships between our...

  18. Adaptive leadership: a novel approach for family decision making.

    Adams, Judith; Bailey, Donald E; Anderson, Ruth A; Galanos, Anthony N

    2013-03-01

    Family members of intensive care unit (ICU) patients want to be involved in decision making, but they may not be best served by being placed in the position of having to solve problems for which they lack knowledge and skills. This case report presents an exemplar family meeting in the ICU led by a palliative care specialist, with discussion about the strategies used to improve the capacity of the family to make a decision consistent with the patient's goals. These strategies are presented through the lens of Adaptive Leadership. PMID:22663140

  19. A Decision Analysis Tool for Climate Impacts, Adaptations, and Vulnerabilities

    Omitaomu, Olufemi A [ORNL; Parish, Esther S [ORNL; Nugent, Philip J [ORNL

    2016-01-01

    Climate change related extreme events (such as flooding, storms, and drought) are already impacting millions of people globally at a cost of billions of dollars annually. Hence, there are urgent needs for urban areas to develop adaptation strategies that will alleviate the impacts of these extreme events. However, lack of appropriate decision support tools that match local applications is limiting local planning efforts. In this paper, we present a quantitative analysis and optimization system with customized decision support modules built on geographic information system (GIS) platform to bridge this gap. This platform is called Urban Climate Adaptation Tool (Urban-CAT). For all Urban-CAT models, we divide a city into a grid with tens of thousands of cells; then compute a list of metrics for each cell from the GIS data. These metrics are used as independent variables to predict climate impacts, compute vulnerability score, and evaluate adaptation options. Overall, the Urban-CAT system has three layers: data layer (that contains spatial data, socio-economic and environmental data, and analytic data), middle layer (that handles data processing, model management, and GIS operation), and application layer (that provides climate impacts forecast, adaptation optimization, and site evaluation). The Urban-CAT platform can guide city and county governments in identifying and planning for effective climate change adaptation strategies.

  20. On the Road to Holistic Decision Making in Adaptive Security

    Mahsa Emami-Taba

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Security is a critical concern in today's software systems. Besides the interconnectivity and dynamic nature of network systems, the increasing complexity in modern software systems amplifies the complexity of IT security. This fact leaves attackers one step ahead in exploiting vulnerabilities and introducing new cyberattacks. The demand for new methodologies in addressing cybersecurity is emphasized by both private and national corporations. A practical solution to dynamically manage the high complexity of IT security is adaptive security, which facilitates analysis of the system's behaviour and hence the prevention of malicious attacks in complex systems. Systems that feature adaptive security detect and mitigate security threats at runtime with little or no administrator involvement. In these systems, decisions at runtime are balanced according to quality and performance goals. This article describes the necessity of holistic decision making in such systems and paves the road to future research.

  1. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Qianqian Zhou

    2012-10-15

    adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional

  2. Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

    Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

    2011-12-01

    Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

  3. Using plural modeling for predicting decisions made by adaptive adversaries

    Incorporating an appropriate representation of the likelihood of terrorist decision outcomes into risk assessments associated with weapons of mass destruction attacks has been a significant problem for countries around the world. Developing these likelihoods gets at the heart of the most difficult predictive problems: human decision making, adaptive adversaries, and adversaries about which very little is known. A plural modeling approach is proposed that incorporates estimates of all critical uncertainties: who is the adversary and what skills and resources are available to him, what information is known to the adversary and what perceptions of the important facts are held by this group or individual, what does the adversary know about the countermeasure actions taken by the government in question, what are the adversary's objectives and the priorities of those objectives, what would trigger the adversary to start an attack and what kind of success does the adversary desire, how realistic is the adversary in estimating the success of an attack, how does the adversary make a decision and what type of model best predicts this decision-making process. A computational framework is defined to aggregate the predictions from a suite of models, based on this broad array of uncertainties. A validation approach is described that deals with a significant scarcity of data.

  4. Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

    Chang, N.

    2006-12-01

    The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

  5. Adaptive continuous hierarchical model-based decision making

    Dedecius, Kamil; Ettler, P.

    Portugalsko: SciTePress – Science and Technology Publications, 2011, s. 284-289. ISBN 978-989-8425-74-4. [8th International Conference on Informatics in Control, Automation and Robotics (ICINCO). Noordwijkerhout (NL), 27.07.2011-31.07.2011] R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) 7D09008; GA MŠk 1M0572 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian modelling * Hierarchical model * Parameter estimation Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2011/AS/dedecius-adaptive continuous hierarchical model-based decision making.pdf

  6. What Does It Take to Produce Interpretation? Informational, Peircean, and Code-Semiotic Views on Biosemiotics

    Brier, Soren; Joslyn, Cliff A.

    2013-04-01

    This paper presents a critical analysis of code-semiotics, which we see as the latest attempt to create paradigmatic foundation for solving the question of the emergence of life and consciousness. We view code semiotics as a an attempt to revise the empirical scientific Darwinian paradigm, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems created by the evolutionary paradigm’s commitment to produce a theory of how to connect the two sides of the Cartesian dualistic view of physical reality and consciousness in a consistent way.

  7. Complexity in organizations and environment - adaptive changes and adaptive decision-making

    Robert Fabac

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The features of complexity are ever more present in modern organizations and in environments in which they operate, trying to survive and be as competitive as possible. In the processes of, the so-called emergence, the formal organizational structure, designed purposefully and with a plan, is going through a change due to complexity and the need for adaptation. As a result, there is a variety of new informal groups. At the same time, the intended structural changes and business process changes occur because of the perception that the leadership and senior organizational management have of the strategic situation. Managers in modern organizations often use business intelligence (BI systems when making important business decisions. These systems offer support to the decision-making by gathering and processing relevant data and information about the company performance, but also about the data on conditions in close and remote environment. A modern company is characterized by the complex adaptive system, but the environment in which it operates together with other business subjects (agents is also complex. Consequently, the requirements for appropriate or optimal decisions and successfully completed activities are hard to meet. Given that expected future events and circumstances often occur in nonlinear mechanisms, the decisions made by following the models of traditional predicting and planning are not satisfactory. This calls for new approaches to decision making and acting.

  8. A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

    Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

    2013-12-01

    Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

  9. Adaptive awareness for personal and small group decision making.

    Perano, Kenneth J.; Tucker, Steve; Pancerella, Carmen M.; Doser, Adele Beatrice; Berry, Nina M.; Kyker, Ronald D.

    2003-12-01

    Many situations call for the use of sensors monitoring physiological and environmental data. In order to use the large amounts of sensor data to affect decision making, we are coupling heterogeneous sensors with small, light-weight processors, other powerful computers, wireless communications, and embedded intelligent software. The result is an adaptive awareness and warning tool, which provides both situation awareness and personal awareness to individuals and teams. Central to this tool is a sensor-independent architecture, which combines both software agents and a reusable core software framework that manages the available hardware resources and provides services to the agents. Agents can recognize cues from the data, warn humans about situations, and act as decision-making aids. Within the agents, self-organizing maps (SOMs) are used to process physiological data in order to provide personal awareness. We have employed a novel clustering algorithm to train the SOM to discern individual body states and activities. This awareness tool has broad applicability to emergency teams, military squads, military medics, individual exercise and fitness monitoring, health monitoring for sick and elderly persons, and environmental monitoring in public places. This report discusses our hardware decisions, software framework, and a pilot awareness tool, which has been developed at Sandia National Laboratories.

  10. Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2012-12-01

    As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks

  11. Approximation Algorithms for Optimal Decision Trees and Adaptive TSP Problems

    Gupta, Anupam; Nagarajan, Viswanath; Ravi, R

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of constructing optimal decision trees: given a collection of tests which can disambiguate between a set of $m$ possible diseases, each test having a cost, and the a-priori likelihood of the patient having any particular disease, what is a good adaptive strategy to perform these tests to minimize the expected cost to identify the disease? We settle the approximability of this problem by giving a tight $O(\\log m)$-approximation algorithm. We also consider a more substantial generalization, the Adaptive TSP problem. Given an underlying metric space, a random subset $S$ of cities is drawn from a known distribution, but $S$ is initially unknown to us--we get information about whether any city is in $S$ only when we visit the city in question. What is a good adaptive way of visiting all the cities in the random subset $S$ while minimizing the expected distance traveled? For this problem, we give the first poly-logarithmic approximation, and show that this algorithm is best possible unless w...

  12. Toolbox or Adjustable Spanner? A Critical Comparison of Two Metaphors for Adaptive Decision Making

    Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt

    2016-01-01

    For multiattribute decision tasks, different metaphors exist that describe the process of decision making and its adaptation to diverse problems and situations. Multiple strategy models (MSMs) assume that decision makers choose adaptively from a set of different strategies (toolbox metaphor), whereas evidence accumulation models (EAMs) hold that a…

  13. Combining Naive Bayes and Decision Tree for Adaptive Intrusion Detection

    Farid, Dewan Md; Rahman, Mohammad Zahidur; 10.5121/ijnsa.2010.2202

    2010-01-01

    In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposed algorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS). We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learn...

  14. Automated mechanical ventilation: adapting decision making to different disease states.

    Lozano-Zahonero, S; Gottlieb, D; Haberthür, C; Guttmann, J; Möller, K

    2011-03-01

    The purpose of the present study is to introduce a novel methodology for adapting and upgrading decision-making strategies concerning mechanical ventilation with respect to different disease states into our fuzzy-based expert system, AUTOPILOT-BT. The special features are: (1) Extraction of clinical knowledge in analogy to the daily routine. (2) An automated process to obtain the required information and to create fuzzy sets. (3) The controller employs the derived fuzzy rules to achieve the desired ventilation status. For demonstration this study focuses exclusively on the control of arterial CO(2) partial pressure (p(a)CO(2)). Clinical knowledge from 61 anesthesiologists was acquired using a questionnaire from which different disease-specific fuzzy sets were generated to control p(a)CO(2). For both, patients with healthy lung and with acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) the fuzzy sets show different shapes. The fuzzy set "normal", i.e., "target p(a)CO(2) area", ranges from 35 to 39 mmHg for healthy lungs and from 39 to 43 mmHg for ARDS lungs. With the new fuzzy sets our AUTOPILOT-BT reaches the target p(a)CO(2) within maximal three consecutive changes of ventilator settings. Thus, clinical knowledge can be extended, updated, and the resulting mechanical ventilation therapies can be individually adapted, analyzed, and evaluated. PMID:21069471

  15. Combining Naive Bayes and Decision Tree for Adaptive Intrusion Detection

    Dewan Md. Farid

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a new learning algorithm for adaptive network intrusion detection using naive Bayesian classifier and decision tree is presented, which performs balance detections and keeps false positives at acceptable level for different types of network attacks, and eliminates redundant attributes as well as contradictory examples from training data that make the detection model complex. The proposedalgorithm also addresses some difficulties of data mining such as handling continuous attribute, dealing with missing attribute values, and reducing noise in training data. Due to the large volumes of security audit data as well as the complex and dynamic properties of intrusion behaviours, several data miningbased intrusion detection techniques have been applied to network-based traffic data and host-based data in the last decades. However, there remain various issues needed to be examined towards current intrusion detection systems (IDS. We tested the performance of our proposed algorithm with existing learning algorithms by employing on the KDD99 benchmark intrusion detection dataset. The experimental results prove that the proposed algorithm achieved high detection rates (DR andsignificant reduce false positives (FP for different types of network intrusions using limited computational resources

  16. Adaptation Knowledge Acquisition: a Case Study for Case-Based Decision Support in Oncology

    D'Aquin, Mathieu; Lieber, Jean; Napoli, Amedeo

    2006-01-01

    Kasimir is a case-based decision support system in the domain of breast cancer treatment. For this system, a problem is given by the description of a patient and a solution is a set of therapeutic decisions. Given a target problem, Kasimir provides several suggestions of solutions, based on several justified adaptations of source cases. Such adaptation processes are based on adaptation knowledge. The acquisition of this kind of knowledge from experts is presented in this paper. It is shown ho...

  17. Age-related differences in adaptive decision making

    Irwin P. Levin

    2007-08-01

    Full Text Available While previous research has found that children make more risky decisions than their parents, little is known about the developmental trajectory for the ability to make advantageous decisions. In a sample of children, 5--11 years old, we administered a new risky decision making task in which the relative expected value (EV of the risky and riskless choice options was varied over trials. Younger children (age 5--7 showed significantly less responsiveness to EV differences than their parents on both trials involving risky gains and trials involving risky losses. For older children (age 8--11 this deficit was smaller overall but was greater on loss trials than on gain trials. Children of both ages made more risky choices than adults when risky choices were disadvantageous. We further analyzed these results in terms of children's ability to utilize probability and outcome information, and discussed them in terms of developing brain structures vital for decision making under uncertainty.

  18. Mechanism of the taking the coordinated decisions: interaction and adaptability

    T.O. Zagornaya

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available In article are motivated actual problems of the shaping the mechanism of the taking the coordinated decisions with provision for specifics of management process operation and developments enterprise in condition of the contradiction of the problems its functional subdivisions. Is it Also designed methods of the shaping the intercepting the functional subdivisions within the framework of procedures budgetation in accordance with principle complex decision making.

  19. Fault diagnosis of induction motor based on decision trees and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference

    Tran, Tung; Yang, Bo-Suk; Oh, Myung-Suck; Tan, Andy Chit Chiow

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a fault diagnosis method based on adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in combination with decision trees. Classification and regression tree (CART) which is one of the decision tree methods is used as a feature selection procedure to select pertinent features from data set. The crisp rules obtained from the decision tree are then converted to fuzzy if-then rules that are employed to identify the structure of ANFIS classifier. The hybrid of back-propagation and le...

  20. A Study on the Design for Object-Oriented Adaptive Decision-Making Teams

    2002-01-01

    The modern war features a highly distributed coordination. In the face of great time constrains, it is important to change command organizations to adapt to the real environment. Therefore it's a key step to set up adaptive C2 teams. In this paper, the relational problems about distributed C2 organizational structure adaptation are discussed, and the methodology for team decision-making design based on the object-oriented technique is studied.

  1. Adaptive Leadership: A Novel Approach for Family Decision Making

    Adams, Judith; Bailey, Donald E.; Anderson, Ruth A.; Galanos, Anthony N.

    2013-01-01

    Family members of intensive care unit (ICU) patients want to be involved in decision making, but they may not be best served by being placed in the position of having to solve problems for which they lack knowledge and skills. This case report presents an exemplar family meeting in the ICU led by a palliative care specialist, with discussion about the strategies used to improve the capacity of the family to make a decision consistent with the patient's goals. These strategies are presented th...

  2. Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

    Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

    2011-01-01

    Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed...... likely to remove barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for...

  3. Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

    Zhou, Qianqian

    mitigation steps have been taken in attempts to reduce global warming, adaptation is highly advocated to supplement mitigation to cope with the unavoidable adverse impacts of flooding on vulnerable assets. The emphasis of this PhD thesis is flood protection in the context of pluvial flooding by investigating...... century, the design objectives of urban drainage systems also include elements such as environmental protection and amenity values. Among the objectives, flood protection has received much attention in recent years as a result of increasing flood hazards and risks due to climate change impacts. Although...... new principles and approaches for assessment of urban drainage adaptation measures under climate change impacts. The thesis describes a new framework for design and analysis of urban drainage that accurately assesses hazards and vulnerabilities of urban areas and quantifies the present and future...

  4. Decision Support for Energy Contracts Negotiation with Game Theory and Adaptive Learning

    Tiago Pinto

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a decision support methodology for electricity market players’ bilateral contract negotiations. The proposed model is based on the application of game theory, using artificial intelligence to enhance decision support method’s adaptive features. This model is integrated in AiD-EM (Adaptive Decision Support for Electricity Markets Negotiations, a multi-agent system that provides electricity market players with strategic behavior capabilities to improve their outcomes from energy contracts’ negotiations. Although a diversity of tools that enable the study and simulation of electricity markets has emerged during the past few years, these are mostly directed to the analysis of market models and power systems’ technical constraints, making them suitable tools to support decisions of market operators and regulators. However, the equally important support of market negotiating players’ decisions is being highly neglected. The proposed model contributes to overcome the existing gap concerning effective and realistic decision support for electricity market negotiating entities. The proposed method is validated by realistic electricity market simulations using real data from the Iberian market operator—MIBEL. Results show that the proposed adaptive decision support features enable electricity market players to improve their outcomes from bilateral contracts’ negotiations.

  5. Weathering climate change. Some simple rules to guide adaptation decisions

    This paper discusses some of the elements that may characterise an efficient strategy to adapt to a changing climate. Such a strategy will have to reflect the long time horizon of, and the prevailing uncertainties about, climate change. An intuitively appealing approach therefore seems to be to enhance the flexibility and resilience of systems to react to and cope with climate shocks and extremes, as well as to improve information. In addition, in the case of quasi-irreversible investments with a long lifetime (e.g. infrastructure investments, development of coastal zones), precautionary adjustments may be called for to increase the robustness of structures, or to increase the rate of depreciation to allow for earlier replacement. Many of these measures may already have to be considered now, and could be worthwhile in their own right, independent of climate change considerations

  6. Research on Satellite Communication Channel Estimation and Adaptive Modulation Decision Technology

    Zhendong Yin

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Satellite communication has become a modern indispensable means of communication. In order to reduce the BER in a maximum limit, the transmitting terminal of adaptive satellite communication technology can automatic select working frequency, data transmission rate and modulation mode. In this study, a simple and practical design of system based on the Signal-to-noise Ratio (SNR estimation scheme with adaptive modulation for satellite communication is presented. This system applies Maximum-likelihood (ML algorithm to estimate SNR. Simulation deduces the modulation mode switching threshold. In addition, the adaptive modulation switching threshold is the trade off between spectral efficiency and Bit Error Rate (BER. Furthermore, the modulation mode decision strategy should be considered to achieve the highest spectral efficiency and to maintain constant average BER. The design of an integrated SNR estimation and adaptive modulation mode decision system is highly challenging. Numerical results show that the design fulfills superior performance.

  7. Enhanced Adaptive Management: Integrating Decision Analysis, Scenario Analysis and Environmental Modeling for the Everglades

    Convertino, Matteo; Christy M. Foran; Jeffrey M. Keisler; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Gregory A. Kiker; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find tha...

  8. Altered adaptive but not veridical decision-making in substance dependent individuals.

    Verdejo-García, Antonio; Vilar-López, Raquel; Pérez-García, Miguel; Podell, Kenneth; Goldberg, Elkhonon

    2006-01-01

    Drug addiction is associated with impaired judgment in unstructured situations in which success depends on self-regulation of behavior according to internal goals (adaptive decision-making). However most executive measures are aimed at assessing decision-making in structured scenarios, in which success is determined by external criteria inherent to the situation (veridical decision-making). The aim of this study was to examine the performance of Substance Abusers (SA, n = 97) and Healthy Comparison participants (HC, n = 81) in two behavioral tasks that mimic the uncertainty inherent in real-life decision-making: the Cognitive Bias Task (CB) and the Iowa Gambling Task (IGT) (administered only to SA). A related goal was to study the interdependence between performances on both tasks. We conducted univariate analyses of variance (ANOVAs) to contrast the decision-making performance of both groups; and used correlation analyses to study the relationship between both tasks. SA showed a marked context-independent decision-making strategy on the CB's adaptive condition, but no differences were found on the veridical conditions in a subsample of SA (n = 34) and HC (n = 22). A high percentage of SA (75%) also showed impaired performance on the IGT. Both tasks were only correlated when no impaired participants were selected. Results indicate that SA show abnormal decision-making performance in unstructured situations, but not in veridical situations. PMID:16433948

  9. Lost in Search: (Mal-)Adaptation to Probabilistic Decision Environments in Children and Adults

    Betsch, Tilmann; Lehmann, Anne; Lindow, Stefanie; Lang, Anna; Schoemann, Martin

    2016-01-01

    Adaptive decision making in probabilistic environments requires individuals to use probabilities as weights in predecisional information searches and/or when making subsequent choices. Within a child-friendly computerized environment (Mousekids), we tracked 205 children's (105 children 5-6 years of age and 100 children 9-10 years of age) and 103…

  10. Quantifying the Value of Downscaled Climate Model Information for Adaptation Decisions: When is Downscaling a Smart Decision?

    Terando, A. J.; Wootten, A.; Eaton, M. J.; Runge, M. C.; Littell, J. S.; Bryan, A. M.; Carter, S. L.

    2015-12-01

    Two types of decisions face society with respect to anthropogenic climate change: (1) whether to enact a global greenhouse gas abatement policy, and (2) how to adapt to the local consequences of current and future climatic changes. The practice of downscaling global climate models (GCMs) is often used to address (2) because GCMs do not resolve key features that will mediate global climate change at the local scale. In response, the development of downscaling techniques and models has accelerated to aid decision makers seeking adaptation guidance. However, quantifiable estimates of the value of information are difficult to obtain, particularly in decision contexts characterized by deep uncertainty and low system-controllability. Here we demonstrate a method to quantify the additional value that decision makers could expect if research investments are directed towards developing new downscaled climate projections. As a proof of concept we focus on a real-world management problem: whether to undertake assisted migration for an endangered tropical avian species. We also take advantage of recently published multivariate methods that account for three vexing issues in climate impacts modeling: maximizing climate model quality information, accounting for model dependence in ensembles of opportunity, and deriving probabilistic projections. We expand on these global methods by including regional (Caribbean Basin) and local (Puerto Rico) domains. In the local domain, we test whether a high resolution (2km) dynamically downscaled GCM reduces the multivariate error estimate compared to the original coarse-scale GCM. Initial tests show little difference between the downscaled and original GCM multivariate error. When propagated through to a species population model, the Value of Information analysis indicates that the expected utility that would accrue to the manager (and species) if this downscaling were completed may not justify the cost compared to alternative actions.

  11. Adaptation of Mamdani Fuzzy Inference System Using Neuro - Genetic Approach for Tactical Air Combat Decision Support System

    Tran, Cong; Jain, Lakhmi; Abraham, Ajith

    2004-01-01

    Normally a decision support system is build to solve problem where multi-criteria decisions are involved. The knowledge base is the vital part of the decision support containing the information or data that is used in decision-making process. This is the field where engineers and scientists have applied several intelligent techniques and heuristics to obtain optimal decisions from imprecise information. In this paper, we present a hybrid neuro-genetic learning approach for the adaptation a Ma...

  12. Application of Adaptive Decision Aiding Systems to Computer-Assisted Instruction. Final Report, January-December 1974.

    May, Donald M.; And Others

    The minicomputer-based Computerized Diagnostic and Decision Training (CDDT) system described combines the principles of artificial intelligence, decision theory, and adaptive computer assisted instruction for training in electronic troubleshooting. The system incorporates an adaptive computer program which learns the student's diagnostic and…

  13. Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

    Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

    2014-02-01

    Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes. PMID:24487452

  14. Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

    Kathryn J. Bowen

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’ in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

  15. Complexity in Organizations and Environment - Adaptive Changes and Adaptive Decision-Making

    Robert Fabac

    2010-01-01

    The features of complexity are ever more present in modern organizations and in environments in which they operate, trying to survive and be as competitive as possible.) In the processes of, the so-called emergence, the formal organizational structure, designed purposefully and with a plan, is going through a change due to complexity and the need for adaptation. As a result, there is a variety of new informal groups. At the same time, the intended structural changes and business process chang...

  16. Adaptive management and environmental decision making. A case study application to water use planning

    Adaptive management (AM) techniques are one of the principal tools proposed by environmental decision makers to provide flexible and responsive management approaches over time. However, the record of successful applications is surprisingly small. We believe that this in part reflects the lack of an intuitively plausible framework for evaluating AM initiatives. This paper outlines such a framework, based on the insights of decision analysis, for evaluating the use of AM as a technique to improve environmental management decisions. British Columbia's Water Use Plan (WUP) process, which has developed operating plans for more than 20 major hydroelectric facilities, is introduced as a case-study example. The discussion emphasizes that decisions to adopt adaptive management strategies involve judgments concerning tradeoffs across a variety of economic, environmental, and social objectives. As a result, adaptive management initiatives need to be carefully evaluated based on their merits relative to other alternatives. Within an AM framework, alternative experimental designs should be evaluated because the design of a preferred experiment involves choices among different levels of investment, the quality of available and desired future information, and different ecological, economic, and social risks. (author)

  17. A Bayesian decision-theoretic sequential response-adaptive randomization design.

    Jiang, Fei; Jack Lee, J; Müller, Peter

    2013-05-30

    We propose a class of phase II clinical trial designs with sequential stopping and adaptive treatment allocation to evaluate treatment efficacy. Our work is based on two-arm (control and experimental treatment) designs with binary endpoints. Our overall goal is to construct more efficient and ethical randomized phase II trials by reducing the average sample sizes and increasing the percentage of patients assigned to the better treatment arms of the trials. The designs combine the Bayesian decision-theoretic sequential approach with adaptive randomization procedures in order to achieve simultaneous goals of improved efficiency and ethics. The design parameters represent the costs of different decisions, for example, the decisions for stopping or continuing the trials. The parameters enable us to incorporate the actual costs of the decisions in practice. The proposed designs allow the clinical trials to stop early for either efficacy or futility. Furthermore, the designs assign more patients to better treatment arms by applying adaptive randomization procedures. We develop an algorithm based on the constrained backward induction and forward simulation to implement the designs. The algorithm overcomes the computational difficulty of the backward induction method, thereby making our approach practicable. The designs result in trials with desirable operating characteristics under the simulated settings. Moreover, the designs are robust with respect to the response rate of the control group. PMID:23315678

  18. Preventing KPI Violations in Business Processes based on Decision Tree Learning and Proactive Runtime Adaptation

    Dimka Karastoyanova

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The performance of business processes is measured and monitored in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs. If the monitoring results show that the KPI targets are violated, the underlying reasons have to be identified and the process should be adapted accordingly to address the violations. In this paper we propose an integrated monitoring, prediction and adaptation approach for preventing KPI violations of business process instances. KPIs are monitored continuously while the process is executed. Additionally, based on KPI measurements of historical process instances we use decision tree learning to construct classification models which are then used to predict the KPI value of an instance while it is still running. If a KPI violation is predicted, we identify adaptation requirements and adaptation strategies in order to prevent the violation.

  19. Beyond cost-benefit: developing a complete toolkit for adaptation decisions

    Berger, Rachel; Chambwera, Muyeye

    2010-06-15

    Cost-benefit analysis has important uses – and crucial blind spots. It represents only one of several economic tools that can be used to assess options for adapting to climate change in developing countries. The Nairobi Work Programme would best serve governments by considering not just cost-benefit approaches, but the entire range of tools. By developing a 'toolkit' that helps users choose from a variety of evaluation methods, we can support adaptation decisions that promote equity, put local people in control and allow for dynamic responses to climate change as it unfolds.

  20. Decision-centric adaptation appraisal for water management across Colorado’s Continental Divide

    David N. Yates; Kathleen A. Miller; Robert L. Wilby; Laurna Kaatz

    2015-01-01

    A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA) [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) tool [the hydrologic cycle and water ...

  1. The environment matters: Comparing individuals and dyads in their adaptive use of decision strategies

    Juliane E. Kaemmer

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Individuals have been shown to adaptively select decision strategies depending on the environment structure. Two experiments extended this research to the group level. Subjects (N = 240 worked either individually or in two-person groups, or dyads, on a multi-attribute paired-comparison task. They were randomly assigned to two different environments that favored one of two prototypical decision strategies---weighted additive or take-the-best (between-subjects design in Experiment 1 and within-subject design in Experiment 2. Performance measures revealed that both individuals and dyads learned to adapt over time. A higher starting and overall performance rate in the environment in which weighted additive performed best led to the conclusion that weighted additive served as a default strategy. When this default strategy had to be replaced, because the environmental structure favored take-the-best, the superior adaptive capacity of dyads became observable in the form of a steeper learning rate. Analyses of nominal dyads indicate that real dyads performed at the level of the best individuals. Fine-grained analyses of information-search data are presented. Results thus point to the strong moderating role of the environment structure when comparing individual with group performance and are discussed within the framework of adaptive strategy selection.

  2. Uncertainty assessment of urban pluvial flood risk in a context of climate change adaptation decision making

    Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten; Zhou, Qianqian

    2014-01-01

    There has been a significant increase in climatic extremes in many regions. In Central and Northern Europe, this has led to more frequent and more severe floods. Along with improved flood modelling technologies this has enabled development of economic assessment of climate change adaptation to...... increasing urban flood risk. Assessment of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis of current risk, drivers of change of risk over time, and measures to reduce the risk. However, such studies are often associated with large uncertainties. The uncertainties arise from...... basic assumptions in the economic analysis and the hydrological model, but also from the projection of future societies to local climate change impacts and suitable adaptation options. This presents a challenge to decision makers when trying to identify robust measures. We present an integrated...

  3. Enhanced adaptive management: integrating decision analysis, scenario analysis and environmental modeling for the Everglades.

    Convertino, Matteo; Foran, Christy M; Keisler, Jeffrey M; Scarlett, Lynn; LoSchiavo, Andy; Kiker, Gregory A; Linkov, Igor

    2013-01-01

    We propose to enhance existing adaptive management efforts with a decision-analytical approach that can guide the initial selection of robust restoration alternative plans and inform the need to adjust these alternatives in the course of action based on continuously acquired monitoring information and changing stakeholder values. We demonstrate an application of enhanced adaptive management for a wetland restoration case study inspired by the Florida Everglades restoration effort. We find that alternatives designed to reconstruct the pre-drainage flow may have a positive ecological impact, but may also have high operational costs and only marginally contribute to meeting other objectives such as reduction of flooding. Enhanced adaptive management allows managers to guide investment in ecosystem modeling and monitoring efforts through scenario and value of information analyses to support optimal restoration strategies in the face of uncertain and changing information. PMID:24113217

  4. A two-neuron system for adaptive goal-directed decision-making in Lymnaea.

    Crossley, Michael; Staras, Kevin; Kemenes, György

    2016-01-01

    During goal-directed decision-making, animals must integrate information from the external environment and their internal state to maximize resource localization while minimizing energy expenditure. How this complex problem is solved by the nervous system remains poorly understood. Here, using a combined behavioural and neurophysiological approach, we demonstrate that the mollusc Lymnaea performs a sophisticated form of decision-making during food-searching behaviour, using a core system consisting of just two neuron types. The first reports the presence of food and the second encodes motivational state acting as a gain controller for adaptive behaviour in the absence of food. Using an in vitro analogue of the decision-making process, we show that the system employs an energy management strategy, switching between a low- and high-use mode depending on the outcome of the decision. Our study reveals a parsimonious mechanism that drives a complex decision-making process via regulation of levels of tonic inhibition and phasic excitation. PMID:27257106

  5. A two-neuron system for adaptive goal-directed decision-making in Lymnaea

    Crossley, Michael; Staras, Kevin; Kemenes, György

    2016-01-01

    During goal-directed decision-making, animals must integrate information from the external environment and their internal state to maximize resource localization while minimizing energy expenditure. How this complex problem is solved by the nervous system remains poorly understood. Here, using a combined behavioural and neurophysiological approach, we demonstrate that the mollusc Lymnaea performs a sophisticated form of decision-making during food-searching behaviour, using a core system consisting of just two neuron types. The first reports the presence of food and the second encodes motivational state acting as a gain controller for adaptive behaviour in the absence of food. Using an in vitro analogue of the decision-making process, we show that the system employs an energy management strategy, switching between a low- and high-use mode depending on the outcome of the decision. Our study reveals a parsimonious mechanism that drives a complex decision-making process via regulation of levels of tonic inhibition and phasic excitation. PMID:27257106

  6. Decision-Making under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation

    Kelli L. Larson

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC. DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.

  7. Translating Knowledge into Action: Supporting Adaptation in Australia's Coastal Zone through Information Provision and Decision Support

    Palutikof, J. P.; Rissik, D.; Tonmoy, F. N.; Boulter, S.

    2015-12-01

    Adaptation to risks from climate change and sea-level rise is particularly important in Australia, where 70% of the population live in major coastal cities and 85% within 50km of the coast. Adaptation activity focuses at local government level and, in the absence of strong leadership from central government, the extent to which local councils have taken action to adapt is highly variable across the nation. Also, although a number of councils have proceeded as far as identifying their exposure to risk and considering adaptation options, this fails to translate into action. A principal reason for this is concern over the response from coastal residents to actions which may affect property values, and fear of litigation. A project is underway to support councils to understand their risks, evaluate adaptation options and proceed to action. This support will consist of a three-pronged framework: provision of information, a tool to support decision-making, and a community forum. Delivery involves research to understand the barriers to adaptation and how these may be overcome, optimal methods for delivery of information, and the information needs of organizations, action-takers and communities. The presentation will focus on the results of consultation undertaken to understand users' information needs around content and delivery, and how understanding of these needs has translated into design of the framework. A strongly preference was expressed to learn from peers, and a challenge for the framework is to understand how to inject adaptation knowledge which is up-to-date and accurate into peer-to-peer conversations. The community forum is one mechanism to achieve this. The basic structure and delivery mechanisms of the framework are shown in the attached.

  8. Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

    Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Meilby, Henrik; Hengeveld, Geerten M.; Schelhaas, Mart-Jan; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark

    2015-01-01

    We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating ...

  9. Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

    Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

    2014-12-01

    Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making

  10. Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice

    2013-01-01

    Background Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making proce...

  11. Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice

    Jansen, S.C.; Haveman-Nies, A.; Duijzer, G.; Beek, ter, J.; Hiddink, G.; Feskens, E.J.M.

    2013-01-01

    Background - Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making pro...

  12. Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making

    Thouvenot, Pierre; Ben Yamin, Barbara; Fourrière, Lou; Lescure, Aurianne; Boudier, Thomas; Del Nery, Elaine; Chauchereau, Anne; Goldgar, David E.; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Nicolas, Alain; Millot, Gaël A.

    2016-01-01

    Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening. PMID:27272900

  13. Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making.

    Thouvenot, Pierre; Ben Yamin, Barbara; Fourrière, Lou; Lescure, Aurianne; Boudier, Thomas; Del Nery, Elaine; Chauchereau, Anne; Goldgar, David E; Houdayer, Claude; Stoppa-Lyonnet, Dominique; Nicolas, Alain; Millot, Gaël A

    2016-06-01

    Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening. PMID:27272900

  14. Functional Assessment of Genetic Variants with Outcomes Adapted to Clinical Decision-Making.

    Pierre Thouvenot

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Understanding the medical effect of an ever-growing number of human variants detected is a long term challenge in genetic counseling. Functional assays, based on in vitro or in vivo evaluations of the variant effects, provide essential information, but they require robust statistical validation, as well as adapted outputs, to be implemented in the clinical decision-making process. Here, we assessed 25 pathogenic and 15 neutral missense variants of the BRCA1 breast/ovarian cancer susceptibility gene in four BRCA1 functional assays. Next, we developed a novel approach that refines the variant ranking in these functional assays. Lastly, we developed a computational system that provides a probabilistic classification of variants, adapted to clinical interpretation. Using this system, the best functional assay exhibits a variant classification accuracy estimated at 93%. Additional theoretical simulations highlight the benefit of this ready-to-use system in the classification of variants after functional assessment, which should facilitate the consideration of functional evidences in the decision-making process after genetic testing. Finally, we demonstrate the versatility of the system with the classification of siRNAs tested for human cell growth inhibition in high throughput screening.

  15. Cultural and Linguistic Adaptation of a Multimedia Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid for Spanish Speaking Latinos

    Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  16. Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

    Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

    2014-12-01

    Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

  17. Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

    Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

    2008-05-15

    Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

  18. Decision-centric adaptation appraisal for water management across Colorado’s Continental Divide

    David N. Yates

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP tool [the hydrologic cycle and water systems model]; and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC [the stochastic climate scenario generator]. Scenarios relevant to the decision community were analyzed and results indicate that this drought management measure would provide only a small storage benefit in offsetting the impacts of a shift to a warmer and drier future climate coupled with related environmental changes. The analysis demonstrates the importance of engaging water managers in the development of credible and computationally efficient decision support tools that accurately capture the physical, legal and contractual dimensions of their climate risk management problems.

  19. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Epstein Richard H; Wachtel Ruth E; Dexter Franklin

    2011-01-01

    Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems dat...

  20. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    P. J. Knight; T. Prime; J M Brown; Morrissey, K; Plater, A.J.

    2015-01-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operationa...

  1. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    P. J. Knight; T. Prime; J M Brown; Morrissey, K; Plater, A.J.

    2015-01-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms and high river flows. This DST has been d...

  2. CALM: Complex Adaptive System (CAS)-Based Decision Support for Enabling Organizational Change

    Adler, Richard M.; Koehn, David J.

    Guiding organizations through transformational changes such as restructuring or adopting new technologies is a daunting task. Such changes generate workforce uncertainty, fear, and resistance, reducing morale, focus and performance. Conventional project management techniques fail to mitigate these disruptive effects, because social and individual changes are non-mechanistic, organic phenomena. CALM (for Change, Adaptation, Learning Model) is an innovative decision support system for enabling change based on CAS principles. CALM provides a low risk method for validating and refining change strategies that combines scenario planning techniques with "what-if" behavioral simulation. In essence, CALM "test drives" change strategies before rolling them out, allowing organizations to practice and learn from virtual rather than actual mistakes. This paper describes the CALM modeling methodology, including our metrics for measuring organizational readiness to respond to change and other major CALM scenario elements: prospective change strategies; alternate futures; and key situational dynamics. We then describe CALM's simulation engine for projecting scenario outcomes and its associated analytics. CALM's simulator unifies diverse behavioral simulation paradigms including: adaptive agents; system dynamics; Monte Carlo; event- and process-based techniques. CALM's embodiment of CAS dynamics helps organizations reduce risk and improve confidence and consistency in critical strategies for enabling transformations.

  3. Online Adaptive Decision Fusion Framework Based on Entropic Projections onto Convex Sets with Application to Wildfire Detection in Video

    Gunay, Osman; Kose, Kivanc; Cetin, A Enis

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, an Entropy functional based online Adaptive Decision Fusion (EADF) framework is developed for image analysis and computer vision applications. In this framework, it is assumed that the compound algorithm consists of several sub-algorithms each of which yielding its own decision as a real number centered around zero, representing the confidence level of that particular sub-algorithm. Decision values are linearly combined with weights which are updated online according to an active fusion method based on performing entropic projections onto convex sets describing sub-algorithms. It is assumed that there is an oracle, who is usually a human operator, providing feedback to the decision fusion method. A video based wildfire detection system is developed to evaluate the performance of the algorithm in handling the problems where data arrives sequentially. In this case, the oracle is the security guard of the forest lookout tower verifying the decision of the combined algorithm. Simulation results are...

  4. Adaptive Capacity Within a Mega Project : A Case Study on Planning and Decision-Making in the Face of Complexity

    Giezen, Mendel; Bertolini, Luca; Salet, Willem

    2015-01-01

    There is a tendency in policy to reduce the complexity of planning and decision-making by simplifying both the process and the scope of projects. However, by framing a planning project's scope or process in a narrow way at an early stage, the possibility of adapting to changes in the context, and th

  5. Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

    Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

    2014-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such

  6. Adapting EVIAVE methodology as a planning and decision-making tool in Venezuela

    Landfills in Venezuela have serious problems regarding their location, design and operation. In fact, basic waste disposal is one of the main weaknesses of the municipal waste management in this country. The Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Renewable Resources has studied and identified the negative impacts of operating landfills, but no program has been implemented to determine the cause-effect relation of these impacts or to design strategies to counteract with the serious environmental and health risks generated. This paper describes how EVIAVE methodology can be successfully used for landfill diagnosis, and shows how this type of landfill diagnosis was applied in Venezuela. For our research study, we carried out both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the environmental problems generated by 22 landfills in Venezuela. Our study was based on the following environmental indexes: Landfill Environment, Environmental Risk, Environmental Value, and Probability of Contamination. For the purposes of our study, it was first necessary to adapt EVIAVE to the legal system and social context in Venezuela. The results obtained confirmed the applicability of this methodology to Venezuelan landfills. EVIAVE was found to be an effective planning tool that provided crucial information for the development of action plans, which would improve landfill operation, and help make decisions pertaining to their closure, sealing and eventual recovery.

  7. Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

    Epstein Richard H

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

  8. Peircean diagrams of time

    Øhrstrøm, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Some very good arguments can be given in favor of the Augustinean wisdom, according to which it is impossible to provide a satisfactory definition of the concept of time. However, even in the absence of a proper definition, it is possible to deal with conceptual problems regarding time. It can be...

  9. Using Markov Decision Process to define an adaptive strategy to control the spread of an animal disease

    Viet, Anne-France; Jeanpierre, Laurent; Bouzid, Maroua; Mouaddib, Abdel-Illah

    2012-01-01

    A strategy to control an animal disease within an area is often based on one or more actions systematically implemented. In this paper, we illustrate how to use a Markov Decision Process (MDP) to compute an adaptive strategy depending on the pathogen spread within a group of farmers with only one decisionmaker for the group. The objective at the group level is to decrease the cost of the disease and its control. Status for each farm is assumed to be exactly known each year by the decision-mak...

  10. Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic Countries: assessing the potential for joint action

    Juhola, Sirkku; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Davis, Marion;

    2014-01-01

    the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits...... and weaknesses of a Nordic strategy for adaptation? In order to answer these two questions, this paper examines reviews the current national adaptation policies of each Nordic country and discusses the challenges facing a Nordic strategy and finally assesses the potential for common Nordic adaptation...

  11. Adapting community based participatory research (CBPR) methods to the implementation of an asthma shared decision making intervention in ambulatory practices

    Tapp, Hazel; Kuhn, Lindsay; Alkhazraji, Thamara; Steuerwald, Mark; Ludden, Tom; Wilson, Sandra; Mowrer, Lauren; Mohanan, Sveta; Dulin, Michael F

    2014-01-01

    Objective Translating research findings into clinical practice is a major challenge to improve the quality of healthcare delivery. Shared decision making (SDM) has been shown to be effective and has not yet been widely adopted by health providers. This paper describes the participatory approach used to adapt and implement an evidence-based asthma SDM intervention into primary care practices. Methods A participatory research approach was initiated through partnership development between practi...

  12. Adaptive Iterative Soft-Input Soft-Output Parallel Decision-Feedback Detectors for Asynchronous Coded DS-CDMA Systems

    Zhang Wei

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The optimum and many suboptimum iterative soft-input soft-output (SISO multiuser detectors require a priori information about the multiuser system, such as the users' transmitted signature waveforms, relative delays, as well as the channel impulse response. In this paper, we employ adaptive algorithms in the SISO multiuser detector in order to avoid the need for this a priori information. First, we derive the optimum SISO parallel decision-feedback detector for asynchronous coded DS-CDMA systems. Then, we propose two adaptive versions of this SISO detector, which are based on the normalized least mean square (NLMS and recursive least squares (RLS algorithms. Our SISO adaptive detectors effectively exploit the a priori information of coded symbols, whose soft inputs are obtained from a bank of single-user decoders. Furthermore, we consider how to select practical finite feedforward and feedback filter lengths to obtain a good tradeoff between the performance and computational complexity of the receiver.

  13. Adaptive learning and decision-making under uncertainty by metaplastic synapses guided by a surprise detection system

    Iigaya, Kiyohito

    2016-01-01

    Recent experiments have shown that animals and humans have a remarkable ability to adapt their learning rate according to the volatility of the environment. Yet the neural mechanism responsible for such adaptive learning has remained unclear. To fill this gap, we investigated a biophysically inspired, metaplastic synaptic model within the context of a well-studied decision-making network, in which synapses can change their rate of plasticity in addition to their efficacy according to a reward-based learning rule. We found that our model, which assumes that synaptic plasticity is guided by a novel surprise detection system, captures a wide range of key experimental findings and performs as well as a Bayes optimal model, with remarkably little parameter tuning. Our results further demonstrate the computational power of synaptic plasticity, and provide insights into the circuit-level computation which underlies adaptive decision-making. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.18073.001 PMID:27504806

  14. Multi-disciplinary assessments of climate change impacts on agriculture to support adaptation decision making in developing countries

    Fujisawa, Mariko; Kanamaru, Hideki

    2016-04-01

    Many existing climate change impact studies, carried out by academic researchers, are disconnected from decision making processes of stakeholders. On the other hand many climate change adaptation projects in developing countries lack a solid evidence base of current and future climate impacts as well as vulnerabilities assessment at different scales. In order to fill this information gap, FAO has developed and implemented a tool "MOSAICC (Modelling System for Agricultural Impacts of Climate Change)" in several developing countries such as Morocco, the Philippines and Peru, and recently in Malawi and Zambia. MOSAICC employs a multi-disciplinary assessment approach to addressing climate change impacts and adaptation planning in the agriculture and food security sectors, and integrates five components from different academic disciplines: 1. Statistical downscaling of climate change projections, 2. Yield simulation of major crops at regional scale under climate change, 3. Surface hydrology simulation model, 4. Macroeconomic model, and 5. Forestry model. Furthermore MOSAICC has been developed as a capacity development tool for the national scientists so that they can conduct the country assessment themselves, using their own data, and reflect the outcome into the national adaptation policies. The outputs are nation-wide coverage, disaggregated at sub-national level to support strategic planning, investments and decisions by national policy makers. MOSAICC is designed in such a way to promote stakeholders' participation and strengthen technical capacities in developing countries. The paper presents MOSAICC and projects that used MOSAICC as a tool with case studies from countries.

  15. Adaptive Decision Fusion with a Guidance Sensor in Wireless Sensor Networks

    Zhaohua Yu; Qiang Ling; Yi Yu

    2015-01-01

    In wireless sensor networks, the fusion center collects the dates from the sensor nodes and makes the optimal decision fusion, while the optimal decision fusion rules need the performance parameters of each sensor node. However, sensors, particularly low-cost and low-precision sensors, are usually displaced in harsh environment and their performance parameters can be easily affected by the environment and hardly be known in advance. In order to resolve this issue, we take a heterogeneous wire...

  16. Decision feedback Channel Estimation - A Precursor for Adaptive Data Transmission Management

    Li, M; Bateman, A.; McGeehan, JP

    1991-01-01

    Two concepts are introduced: first, the notion of adaptive data transmission management to optimize modulation format and coding to channel conditions and, second, as a consequence of this strategy, the proposal of a reverse modulation channel sounding technique for elimination of the irreducible error rate floor, which otherwise limits modem performance under good signal conditions. The adaptive data transmission concept can potentially increase transmission throughput on a practical data ne...

  17. A Novel Clinical Decision Support System Using Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm for the Assessment of Fetal Well-Being

    Sindhu Ravindran

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available A novel clinical decision support system is proposed in this paper for evaluating the fetal well-being from the cardiotocogram (CTG dataset through an Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (IAGA and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM. IAGA employs a new scaling technique (called sigma scaling to avoid premature convergence and applies adaptive crossover and mutation techniques with masking concepts to enhance population diversity. Also, this search algorithm utilizes three different fitness functions (two single objective fitness functions and multi-objective fitness function to assess its performance. The classification results unfold that promising classification accuracy of 94% is obtained with an optimal feature subset using IAGA. Also, the classification results are compared with those of other Feature Reduction techniques to substantiate its exhaustive search towards the global optimum. Besides, five other benchmark datasets are used to gauge the strength of the proposed IAGA algorithm.

  18. Educating the next generation decision makers - the multi-disciplinary classroom as a platform for developing communication skills needed for future progress of adaptation measures

    Olofsson, Jörgen; Jönsson, Anna Maria; Linderson, Maj-Lena; Nilsson, Carin

    2015-01-01

    The scientific knowledge of climate change processes and their worrying future implications for human societies and natural systems has developed considerably during the last decade, but necessary adaptive actions by decision makers have so far been rather limited. There are several causes to this, such as a discrepancy related to the communication between climate scientists and end-users, and the lack of climate educational background of several decision makers. This results in decision make...

  19. Sea Level Rise Decision Support Tools for Adaptation Planning in Vulnerable Coastal Communities

    Rozum, J. S.; Marcy, D.

    2015-12-01

    NOAA is involved in a myriad of climate related research and projects that help decision makers and the public understand climate science as well as climate change impacts. The NOAA Office for Coastal Management (OCM) provides data, tools, trainings and technical assistance to coastal resource managers. Beginning in 2011, NOAA OCM began developing a sea level rise and coastal flooding impacts viewer which provides nationally consistent data sets and analyses to help communities with coastal management goals such as: understanding and communicating coastal flood hazards, performing vulnerability assessments and increasing coastal resilience, and prioritizing actions for different inundation/flooding scenarios. The Viewer is available on NOAA's Digital Coast platform: (coast.noaa.gov/ditgitalcoast/tools/slr). In this presentation we will share the lessons learned from our work with coastal decision-makers on the role of coastal flood risk data and tools in helping to shape future land use decisions and policies. We will also focus on a recent effort in California to help users understand the similarities and differences of a growing array of sea level rise decision support tools. NOAA staff and other partners convened a workshop entitled, "Lifting the Fog: Bringing Clarity to Sea Level Rise and Shoreline Change Models and Tools," which was attended by tool develops, science translators and coastal managers with the goal to create a collaborative communication framework to help California coastal decision-makers navigate the range of available sea level rise planning tools, and to inform tool developers of future planning needs. A sea level rise tools comparison matrix will be demonstrated. This matrix was developed as part of this effort and has been expanded to many other states via a partnership with NOAA, Climate Central, and The Nature Conservancy.

  20. Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

    Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

    2014-01-01

    As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid. PMID:24328496

  1. iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

    Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

    2010-10-01

    The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

  2. Cutthroat cooperation: the effects of team role decisions on adaptation to alternative reward structures

    B. Beersma; J.R. Hollenbeck; D.E. Conlon; S.E. Humphrey; H. Moon; D.R. Ilgen

    2009-01-01

    Structural Adaptation Theory proposes that it is more difficult for teams to change from competitive to cooperative reward conditions than it is for them to change in the opposite direction, and this has been labeled the cutthroat cooperation effect [Johnson, M. D., Hollenbeck, J. R., Ilgen, D. R.,

  3. Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

    Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

    2000-01-01

    Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Six thinking hats for electricity markets simulation: adapting meeting tools to agent decision

    Barreto, João Costa Borges

    2012-01-01

    In almost all industrialized countries, the energy sector has suffered a severe restructuring that originated a greater complexity in market players’ interactions. The complexity that these changes brought made way for the creation of decision support tools that facilitate the study and understanding of these markets. MASCEM – “Multiagent Simulator for Competitive Electricity Markets” arose in this context providing a framework for evaluating new rules, new behaviour, and new participants ...

  5. Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

    Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

    2016-04-01

    Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

  6. Supervised domain adaptation of decision forests: Transfer of models trained in vitro for in vivo intravascular ultrasound tissue characterization.

    Conjeti, Sailesh; Katouzian, Amin; Roy, Abhijit Guha; Peter, Loïc; Sheet, Debdoot; Carlier, Stéphane; Laine, Andrew; Navab, Nassir

    2016-08-01

    In this paper, we propose a supervised domain adaptation (DA) framework for adapting decision forests in the presence of distribution shift between training (source) and testing (target) domains, given few labeled examples. We introduce a novel method for DA through an error-correcting hierarchical transfer relaxation scheme with domain alignment, feature normalization, and leaf posterior reweighting to correct for the distribution shift between the domains. For the first time we apply DA to the challenging problem of extending in vitro trained forests (source domain) for in vivo applications (target domain). The proof-of-concept is provided for in vivo characterization of atherosclerotic tissues using intravascular ultrasound signals, where presence of flowing blood is a source of distribution shift between the two domains. This potentially leads to misclassification upon direct deployment of in vitro trained classifier, thus motivating the need for DA as obtaining reliable in vivo training labels is often challenging if not infeasible. Exhaustive validations and parameter sensitivity analysis substantiate the reliability of the proposed DA framework and demonstrates improved tissue characterization performance for scenarios where adaptation is conducted in presence of only a few examples. The proposed method can thus be leveraged to reduce annotation costs and improve computational efficiency over conventional retraining approaches. PMID:27035487

  7. Decision Making in Concurrent Multitasking: Do People Adapt to Task Interference?

    Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A.; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P.; van Rijn, Hedderik

    2013-01-01

    While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants we...

  8. Information and Decision-Support for Robust Adaptation of Irish Water Resources to Climate Change

    Hall, Julia

    2013-01-01

    Anticipatory adaptation to climate change in the water resources sector is essential to reduce or avoid expected impacts on water resources availability and management. Anticipating how water systems are likely to respond to a changing climate is a challenging task, due to the difficulties in detecting clear signals of anthropogenic climate change from hydrological observations, along with uncertainties in future climate change impacts. To date in Ireland, studies with regard to climate chang...

  9. Decision-making system for registration and prioritisation of potentially polluted sites adaptable for management of war damage risks

    We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia

  10. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    Kertzscher Schwencke, Gustavo Adolfo Vladimir; Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

    2014-01-01

    Purpose:This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of...... identify all false errors represented by mispositioned dosimeters contrary to an error detection algorithm relying on the original reconstruction. Conclusions:The study demonstrates that the AEDA error identification during HDR/PDR BT relies on a stable dosimeter position rather than on an accurate...... dosimeter reconstruction, and the AEDA’s capacity to distinguish between true and false error scenarios. The study further shows that the AEDA can offer guidance in decision making in the event of potential errors detected with real-time in vivo point dosimetry....

  11. An analysis and study of decision tree induction operating under adaptive mode to enhance accuracy and uptime in a dataset introduced to spontaneous variation in data attributes

    Uttam Chauhan

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Many methods exist for the purpose of classification of an unknown dataset. Decision tree induction is one of the well-known methods for classification. Decision tree method operates under two different modes: nonadaptive and adaptive mode. The non adaptive mode of operation is applied when the data set is completely mature and available or the data set is static and their will be no changes in dataset attributes. However when the dataset is likely to have changes in the values and attributes leading to fluctuation i.e., monthly, quarterly or annually, then under the circumstances decision tree method operating under adaptive mode needs to be applied, as the conventional non-adaptive method fails, as it needs to be applied once again starting from scratch on the augmented dataset. This makes things expensive in terms of time and space. Sometimes attributesare added into the dataset, at the same time number of records also increases. This paper mainly studies the behavioral aspects of classification model particularly, when number of attr bute in dataset increase due to spontaneous changes in the value(s/attribute(s. Our investigative studies have shown that accuracy of decision tree model can be maintained when number of attributes including class increase in dataset which increases thenumber of records as well. In addition, accuracy also can be maintained when number of values increase in class attribute of dataset. The way Adaptive mode decision tree method operates is that it reads data instance by instance and incorporates the same through absorption to the said model; update the model according to valueof attribute particular and specific to the instance. As the time required to updating decision tree can be less than introducing it from scratch, thus eliminating the problem of introducing decision tree repeatedly from scratch and at the same time gaining upon memory and time.

  12. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    P. J. Knight

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision-support tool (DST that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies are used to demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  13. Application of flood risk modelling in a web-based geospatial decision support tool for coastal adaptation to climate change

    Knight, P. J.; Prime, T.; Brown, J. M.; Morrissey, K.; Plater, A. J.

    2015-07-01

    A pressing problem facing coastal decision makers is the conversion of "high-level" but plausible climate change assessments into an effective basis for climate change adaptation at the local scale. Here, we describe a web-based, geospatial decision support tool (DST) that provides an assessment of the potential flood risk for populated coastal lowlands arising from future sea-level rise, coastal storms, and high river flows. This DST has been developed to support operational and strategic decision making by enabling the user to explore the flood hazard from extreme events, changes in the extent of the flood-prone areas with sea-level rise, and thresholds of sea-level rise where current policy and resource options are no longer viable. The DST is built in an open-source GIS that uses freely available geospatial data. Flood risk assessments from a combination of LISFLOOD-FP and SWAB (Shallow Water And Boussinesq) models are embedded within the tool; the user interface enables interrogation of different combinations of coastal and river events under rising-sea-level scenarios. Users can readily vary the input parameters (sea level, storms, wave height and river flow) relative to the present-day topography and infrastructure to identify combinations where significant regime shifts or "tipping points" occur. Two case studies demonstrate the attributes of the DST with respect to the wider coastal community and the UK energy sector. Examples report on the assets at risk and illustrate the extent of flooding in relation to infrastructure access. This informs an economic assessment of potential losses due to climate change and thus provides local authorities and energy operators with essential information on the feasibility of investment for building resilience into vulnerable components of their area of responsibility.

  14. Complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC using highly adaptive fast mode decision based on macroblock motion activity

    Abdellah, Skoudarli; Mokhtar, Nibouche; Amina, Serir

    2015-11-01

    The H.264/AVC video coding standard is used in a wide range of applications from video conferencing to high-definition television according to its high compression efficiency. This efficiency is mainly acquired from the newly allowed prediction schemes including variable block modes. However, these schemes require a high complexity to select the optimal mode. Consequently, complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC encoder has recently become a very challenging task in the video compression domain, especially when implementing the encoder in real-time applications. Fast mode decision algorithms play an important role in reducing the overall complexity of the encoder. In this paper, we propose an adaptive fast intermode algorithm based on motion activity, temporal stationarity, and spatial homogeneity. This algorithm predicts the motion activity of the current macroblock from its neighboring blocks and identifies temporal stationary regions and spatially homogeneous regions using adaptive threshold values based on content video features. Extensive experimental work has been done in high profile, and results show that the proposed source-coding algorithm effectively reduces the computational complexity by 53.18% on average compared with the reference software encoder, while maintaining the high-coding efficiency of H.264/AVC by incurring only 0.097 dB in total peak signal-to-noise ratio and 0.228% increment on the total bit rate.

  15. Cognitive flexibility in adolescence: neural and behavioral mechanisms of reward prediction error processing in adaptive decision making during development.

    Hauser, Tobias U; Iannaccone, Reto; Walitza, Susanne; Brandeis, Daniel; Brem, Silvia

    2015-01-01

    Adolescence is associated with quickly changing environmental demands which require excellent adaptive skills and high cognitive flexibility. Feedback-guided adaptive learning and cognitive flexibility are driven by reward prediction error (RPE) signals, which indicate the accuracy of expectations and can be estimated using computational models. Despite the importance of cognitive flexibility during adolescence, only little is known about how RPE processing in cognitive flexibility deviates between adolescence and adulthood. In this study, we investigated the developmental aspects of cognitive flexibility by means of computational models and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI). We compared the neural and behavioral correlates of cognitive flexibility in healthy adolescents (12-16years) to adults performing a probabilistic reversal learning task. Using a modified risk-sensitive reinforcement learning model, we found that adolescents learned faster from negative RPEs than adults. The fMRI analysis revealed that within the RPE network, the adolescents had a significantly altered RPE-response in the anterior insula. This effect seemed to be mainly driven by increased responses to negative prediction errors. In summary, our findings indicate that decision making in adolescence goes beyond merely increased reward-seeking behavior and provides a developmental perspective to the behavioral and neural mechanisms underlying cognitive flexibility in the context of reinforcement learning. PMID:25234119

  16. Adapt

    Bargatze, L. F.

    2015-12-01

    Active Data Archive Product Tracking (ADAPT) is a collection of software routines that permits one to generate XML metadata files to describe and register data products in support of the NASA Heliophysics Virtual Observatory VxO effort. ADAPT is also a philosophy. The ADAPT concept is to use any and all available metadata associated with scientific data to produce XML metadata descriptions in a consistent, uniform, and organized fashion to provide blanket access to the full complement of data stored on a targeted data server. In this poster, we present an application of ADAPT to describe all of the data products that are stored by using the Common Data File (CDF) format served out by the CDAWEB and SPDF data servers hosted at the NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. These data servers are the primary repositories for NASA Heliophysics data. For this purpose, the ADAPT routines have been used to generate data resource descriptions by using an XML schema named Space Physics Archive, Search, and Extract (SPASE). SPASE is the designated standard for documenting Heliophysics data products, as adopted by the Heliophysics Data and Model Consortium. The set of SPASE XML resource descriptions produced by ADAPT includes high-level descriptions of numerical data products, display data products, or catalogs and also includes low-level "Granule" descriptions. A SPASE Granule is effectively a universal access metadata resource; a Granule associates an individual data file (e.g. a CDF file) with a "parent" high-level data resource description, assigns a resource identifier to the file, and lists the corresponding assess URL(s). The CDAWEB and SPDF file systems were queried to provide the input required by the ADAPT software to create an initial set of SPASE metadata resource descriptions. Then, the CDAWEB and SPDF data repositories were queried subsequently on a nightly basis and the CDF file lists were checked for any changes such as the occurrence of new, modified, or deleted

  17. Distributed leadership and adaptive decision-making in the ant Tetramorium caespitum.

    Collignon, B; Detrain, C

    2010-04-22

    In the ant species Tetramorium caespitum, communication and foraging patterns rely on group-mass recruitment. Scouts having discovered food recruit nestmates and behave as leaders by guiding groups of recruits to the food location. After a while, a mass recruitment takes place in which foragers follow a chemical trail. Since group recruitment is crucial to the whole foraging process, we investigated whether food characteristics induce a tuning of recruiting stimuli by leaders that act upon the dynamics and size of recruited groups. High sucrose concentration triggers the exit of a higher number of groups that contain twice as many ants and reach the food source twice as fast than towards a weakly concentrated one. Similar trends were found depending on food accessibility: for a cut mealworm, accessibility to haemolymph results in a faster formation of larger groups than for an entire mealworm. These data provide the background for developing a stochastic model accounting for exploitation patterns by group-mass recruiting species. This model demonstrates how the modulations performed by leaders drive the colony to select the most profitable food source among several ones. Our results highlight how a minority of individuals can influence collective decisions in societies based on a distributed leadership. PMID:20031990

  18. Heterogeneous preferences, decision-making capacity, and phase transitions in a complex adaptive system.

    Wang, Wei; Chen, Yu; Huang, Jiping

    2009-05-26

    There has been a belief that with the directing power of the market, the efficient state of a resource-allocating system can eventually be reached even in a case where the resource is distributed in a biased way. To mimic the realistic huge system for the resource allocation, we designed and conducted a series of economic experiments. From the experiments we found that efficient allocation can be realized despite a lack of communications among the participants or any instructions to them. To explain the underlying mechanism, an extended minority game model called the market-directed resource allocation game (MDRAG) is constructed by introducing heterogeneous preferences into the strategy-building procedures. MDRAG can produce results in good agreement with the experiments. We investigated the influence of agents' decision-making capacity on the system behavior and the phase structure of the MDRAG model as well. A number of phase transitions are identified in the system. In the critical region, we found that the overall system will behave in an efficient, stable, and unpredictable mode in which the market's invisible hand can fully play its role. PMID:19435846

  19. Decision making as community adaptation: a case study of emergency managers in Oklahoma.

    Donner, William R

    2008-06-01

    This paper explores how emergency managers make judgments regarding long-term policy and offers a sociological account of organisational decision making within an ecological context. Discussions with emergency managers focusing on the relative merits of rainfall estimation and tornado detection served as data with which to address these issues. Among the 39 interviewees, a consensus emerged favouring tornado detection over rainfall estimation. From these findings, the paper attempts to understand why emergency managers prefer tornado detection to rainfall estimation and to develop theoretical generalisations explaining trends in these preferences. When developing long-term policy, analysis of transcripts revealed emergency managers to be most concerned with the relative uncertainty of hazards, the capabilities of technology in hazard mitigation, and how the public perceives environmental threats. Given the environmental, technological, and social concerns reflected in this reasoning, there appears to be a strong ecological context driving the need for tornado detection among emergency managers. Implications and concerns are presented in the final section. PMID:18380856

  20. The Adaptive Decision-Making Process as a Tool for Integrated Natural Resource Management: Focus, Attitudes, and Approach

    Hazel Lim-Applegate

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Integrated natural resource management (INRM and its many closely related approaches are generally considered to be more effective than single-disciplinary approaches for managing the complex resource issues currently facing many countries. INRM approaches aim to integrate several disciplines and involve different stakeholders operating in their own subsystems across different spatial and temporal scales. These approaches focus on identifying management strategies for sustaining natural resource stocks and flows of goods and services as well as their underlying ecological processes. Changes in the behavior of consumers and producers and in the allocation of resources among uses, users, time, and space will be necessary to achieve sustainable development. To accomplish this, changes in focus, attitudes, and approaches to research and management will also be necessary. This paper argues that the key focus of INRM should not be the natural resource itself, but rather the interactions of humans with each other and with their natural environment, and the decisions they make about using and managing resources. Such decision-making processes aim to identify and implement action-oriented strategies and to apply economic and noneconomic instruments that motivate behavioral changes, allowing for different responses to various economic imperatives. This process should be guided by constructivist philosophy and supported by rigorous cross-disciplinary research and active stakeholder participation. It must be compatible with dialectic decision making to reflect the different views and objectives of the stakeholders, the presence of incomplete information, and, at times, the fact that researchers have only a poor understanding of the dynamics of subsystems and their interactions. There must also be iterative, regular monitoring and fine-tuning of the management strategies chosen. We prefer to call the entire process an adaptive decision-making process (ADMP

  1. Decision and decision makers

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-01-01

    In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use ...

  2. Interactive Genetic Algorithm - An Adaptive and Interactive Decision Support Framework for Design of Optimal Groundwater Monitoring Plans

    Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.

    2006-12-01

    In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives

  3. ADAPTATION OF THE MODEL OF BINARY DECISION MATRIX TO THE PROBLEM OF THE CHOICE THE TECHNOLOGY OF CULTIVATION CROPS

    Loyko V. I.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Grain is of strategic importance and is the basis for food security. The gross national product share of grain and its products is about 10-15%. It always stands out from other types of raw materials, as it is used to produce the most popular daily foods. According to the characteristics of management in agriculture, it should be emphasized that the absence of objective and timely information at all stages of production of the plant-breeding, and as a result, non-optimal choice of technology of cultivation of agricultural crops, might result in the fact that the cost of labor and material resources increases significantly, the company does not receive profits, and sometimes suffers losses. When selecting cultivation technology for agricultural crops, an agronomist has a database of more than a hundred times-personal of alternative technologies for each crop. It is up to the decision-maker (DMP to find specific criteria to select the most suitable (for the owners and the climatic zone technology of cultivating for the culture. These circumstances explain the relevance of in-depth research of economic and mathematical models and methods of analysis and evaluation of the economic efficiency of technologies of cultivation agricultural crops. The article deals with the process of adaptation and the possibility of using the model and the method of binary matrices to solve the problem of the choice for cropping technology

  4. Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

    Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

    2015-01-01

    This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

  5. Responsive Decision-Making

    Pedersen, Carsten Lund; Andersen, Torben Juul

    environmental developments and feeding that information into strategic decisions will enable higher quality outcomes and better adaptive responses for persistent performance. Thus we review relevant parts of the strategic decision making literature to conceptualize the responsive decision making model and...

  6. Decision and decision makers

    Anuta Porutiu

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the current economic context, decision making requires complex and multiple actions on the part of the policy makers, who are more challenged than in previous situations, due to the crisis that we are facing. Decision problems cannot be solved by focusing on manager’s own experience or intuition, but require constant adaptation of the methods used effectively in the past to new challenges. Thus, a systemic analysis and modeling of arising issues is required, resulting in the stringent use of Decision Support Systems (DSS, as a necessity in a competitive environment. DSS optimize the situation by getting a timely decision because the decision making process must acquire, process and interpret an even larger amount of data in the shortest possible time. A solution for this purpose is the artificial intelligence systems, in this case Decision Support Systems (DSS, used in a wider area due to expansion of all the new information technologies in decisionmaking processes. These substantial cyber innovations have led to a radical shift in the relationship between enterprise success and quality of decisions made by managers.

  7. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was

  8. Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

    Kertzscher, Gustavo, E-mail: guke@dtu.dk; Andersen, Claus E., E-mail: clan@dtu.dk [Centre for Nuclear Technologies, Technical University of Denmark, DTU Nutech, Frederiksborgvej 399, DK-4000 Roskilde (Denmark); Tanderup, Kari, E-mail: karitand@rm.dk [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital and Institute of Clinical Medicine, Aarhus University, Norrebrogade 44, DK-8000 Aarhus (Denmark)

    2014-05-15

    Purpose: This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction of the dosimeter position. Instead, the treatment is judged based on dose rate comparisons between measurements and calculations of the most viable dosimeter position provided by the AEDA in a data driven approach. As a result, the AEDA compensates for false error cases related to systematic effects of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods: In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most viable dosimeter position out of alternatives to the original reconstruction by means of a data driven matching procedure between dose rate distributions. If measured dose rates do not differ significantly from the most viable alternative, the initial error indication may be attributed to a mispositioned or misreconstructed dosimeter (false error). However, if the error declaration persists, no viable dosimeter position can be found to explain the error, hence the discrepancy is more likely to originate from a misplaced or misreconstructed source applicator or from erroneously connected source guide tubes (true error). Results: The AEDA applied on twoin vivo dosimetry implementations for pulsed dose rate BT demonstrated that the AEDA correctly described effects responsible for initial error indications. The AEDA was able to correctly identify the major part of all permutations of simulated guide tube swap errors and simulated shifts of individual needles from the original reconstruction. Unidentified errors corresponded to scenarios where the dosimeter position was

  9. Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

    Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

    2016-04-01

    Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

  10. A decision-theoretic approach in the design of an adaptive upper-limb stroke rehabilitation robot.

    Huq, Rajibul; Kan, Patricia; Goetschalckx, Robby; Hébert, Debbie; Hoey, Jesse; Mihailidis, Alex

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents an automated system for a rehabilitation robotic device that guides stroke patients through an upper-limb reaching task. The system uses a partially observable Markov decision process (POMDP) as its primary engine for decision-making. The POMDP allows the system to automatically modify exercise parameters to account for the specific needs and abilities of different individuals, and to use these parameters to take appropriate decisions about stroke rehabilitation exercises. The performance of the system was evaluated through various simulations and by comparing the decisions made by the system with those of a human therapist for a single patient. In general, the simulations showed promising results and the therapist thought the system decisions were believable. PMID:22275621

  11. Methods of Adaptive Extraction and Analysis of Knowledge for Knowledge-base Construction and Fast Decision Making

    Kuzemin, Alexander; Fastova, Darya; Yanchevsky, Igor

    2005-01-01

    An approach for knowledge extraction from the information arriving to the knowledge base input and also new knowledge distribution over knowledge subsets already present in the knowledge base is developed. It is also necessary to realize the knowledge transform into parameters (data) of the model for the following decision-making on the given subset. It is assumed to realize the decision-making with the fuzzy sets’ apparatus.

  12. Evaluation Within the Scope of Standa rdization and Adaptation of the Product Decisions Strategies Implemented by Unilever Knorr in the Turkish Market

    Begüm Şahin

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available The various product strategies that businesses operating in international markets have developed by prioritizing customer satisfaction also includes the product standardization and adaptation strategies. These strategies are shaped by the influence of the international market environment, which involves a different set of dynamics. Marketing managers take decisions concerning the extent to which standardization and adaptation will be utilized by first conducting detailed analyses regarding the various factors associated with the countries they are trying to appeal to. In recent years, the strategy mainly adopted by businesses when taking product decision in global markets is the “think global act local” approach –in other words, the glocal approach. Owing to the approach, many businesses operating in global markets are able to continuously increase their effectiveness and share in markets, and to thereby become winners through successful efforts.In this context, the aim of this study was to examine and evaluate, within the scope of standardization and adaptation, the product strategies implemented in the Turkish market by Knorr, a successful brand in the food industry, for its dry soup products. Knorr is also one of the businesses of Unilever, a company that occupies an important place in the global market, and also represents the world’s largest fast moving consumer good company. Data obtained during the study through in-depth interviews performed with two senior managers of the company have shown that Knorr adopts the mixed approach known as glocalization for its dry soup products,which involves a combination of both adaptation and standardization

  13. Factors influencing smallholder cocoa production; a management analysis of behavioural decision-making processes of technology adaption and application

    Taher, S.

    1996-01-01

    The objectives of the study were to expand present knowledge on the technology adoption and application rates for production inputs and fermentation processing related to farmers' decision- making, and to formulate an optimal technology application policy, particularly for smallholder cocoa farmers.

  14. Coping with climate change uncertainty for adaptation planning: An improved criterion for decision making under uncertainty using UKCP09

    M. Green

    2014-01-01

    Analyses using sub-samples of the complete probabilistic dataset showed that the Green Z-score had comparable reproducibility to Laplace and improved reproducibility compared to other current decision criteria, and unlike Laplace is able to accommodate different risk attitudes.

  15. A Two-Stage Approach for Improving the Convergence of Least-Mean-Square Adaptive Decision-Feedback Equalizers in the Presence of Severe Narrowband Interference

    A. A. (Louis Beex

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available It has previously been shown that a least-mean-square (LMS decision-feedback filter can mitigate the effect of narrowband interference (L.-M. Li and L. Milstein, 1983. An adaptive implementation of the filter was shown to converge relatively quickly for mild interference. It is shown here, however, that in the case of severe narrowband interference, the LMS decision-feedback equalizer (DFE requires a very large number of training symbols for convergence, making it unsuitable for some types of communication systems. This paper investigates the introduction of an LMS prediction-error filter (PEF as a prefilter to the equalizer and demonstrates that it reduces the convergence time of the two-stage system by as much as two orders of magnitude. It is also shown that the steady-state bit-error rate (BER performance of the proposed system is still approximately equal to that attained in steady-state by the LMS DFE-only. Finally, it is shown that the two-stage system can be implemented without the use of training symbols. This two-stage structure lowers the complexity of the overall system by reducing the number of filter taps that need to be adapted, while incurring a slight loss in the steady-state BER.

  16. An Adaptive Decision Support System for Last Mile Logistics in E-Commerce: A Study on Online Grocery Shopping

    Mohammad K. Al-nawayseh; Mohammad M. Alnabhan; Al-Debei, Mutaz M.; Wamadeva Balachandran

    2013-01-01

    Last mile logistics represent one of the most important challenging issues in online grocery shopping. Online customers are expecting high logistical services, demanding convenience, high reliable and on-time delivery services. As such, online retailers have to respond to these expectations by providing convenient logistical services while keeping this process cost efficient as much as possible. This research aims to design an e-commerce logistical decision support system for online grocery s...

  17. Climate-Adapted Soil Cultivation as an Aspect for Sustainable Farming – Task-Technology-Fit of a Decision Support System

    Welf Guenther-Lübbers

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Due to global climate change and its impact on local weather conditions, decision support systems are becoming more important in agriculture. Such systems allow farmers to adapt more effectively to the complex changes affecting their farms. Marginal production sites must apply new tillage strategies adapted to new climatic conditions. Information about proper strategy adjustments is often disseminated through agricultural extension services and journals. A new internet information platform, KlimaBob, which focuses on climate-flexible tillage, was established under the auspices of the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin. Successful and permanent introduction of such a system requires analysis and verification of its acceptance among individual farmers. This study addresses this need by applying the established task-technology fit approach. A survey was conducted among farmers in the Brandenburg region. The resulting data provided the basis for a structural equation model that explains and evaluates the task-technology fit of the KlimaBob platform. The results indicate that the performance spectrum of the system exerts a strong influence on the task-technology fit when assessed by both the name characteristics of KlimaBob and the individual characteristics of users (for example, time management, technology affinity and risk attitude.

  18. Opportunistic management of estuaries under climate change: A new adaptive decision-making framework and its practical application.

    Peirson, William; Davey, Erica; Jones, Alan; Hadwen, Wade; Bishop, Keith; Beger, Maria; Capon, Samantha; Fairweather, Peter; Creese, Bob; Smith, Timothy F; Gray, Leigh; Tomlinson, Rodger

    2015-11-01

    Ongoing coastal development and the prospect of severe climate change impacts present pressing estuary management and governance challenges. Robust approaches must recognise the intertwined social and ecological vulnerabilities of estuaries. Here, a new governance and management framework is proposed that recognises the integrated social-ecological systems of estuaries so as to permit transformative adaptation to climate change within these systems. The framework lists stakeholders and identifies estuarine uses and values. Goals are categorised that are specific to ecosystems, private property, public infrastructure, and human communities. Systematic adaptation management strategies are proposed with conceptual examples and associated governance approaches. Contrasting case studies are used to illustrate the practical application of these ideas. The framework will assist estuary managers worldwide to achieve their goals, minimise maladaptative responses, better identify competing interests, reduce stakeholder conflict and exploit opportunities for appropriate ecosystem restoration and sustainable development. PMID:26321531

  19. Space-time adaptive decision feedback neural receivers with data selection for high-data-rate users in DS-CDMA systems.

    de Lamare, Rodrigo C; Sampaio-Neto, Raimundo

    2008-11-01

    A space-time adaptive decision feedback (DF) receiver using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is proposed for joint equalization and interference suppression in direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) systems equipped with antenna arrays. The proposed receiver structure employs dynamically driven RNNs in the feedforward section for equalization and multiaccess interference (MAI) suppression and a finite impulse response (FIR) linear filter in the feedback section for performing interference cancellation. A data selective gradient algorithm, based upon the set-membership (SM) design framework, is proposed for the estimation of the coefficients of RNN structures and is applied to the estimation of the parameters of the proposed neural receiver structure. Simulation results show that the proposed techniques achieve significant performance gains over existing schemes. PMID:18990643

  20. Adaptive models for decision making in production management for thermoelectrical plants; Modelos adaptativos para suporte a decisao na gestao da producao de unidades termeletricas

    Cavalcante, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira; Nascimento, Ricardo Santos; Pacheco, Luciana de Almeida; Ferreira, Adonias Magdiel S.; Leite, Weliton Emanuel S. [Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Barretto, Sergio Torres Sa [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    The development of technologies for the efficient production management of increasingly complex and dynamic systems has proven been a competitive differential for businesses world-class. The integrated management systems are currently among the areas of knowledge more defendants by the different branches of human activity. These systems has widely used mathematical modeling and optimization methods, through which it is feasible identify the optimal operational status, which can be translated as the minimum cost, maximum profit or minimum use of equipment, besides other goals. Also, they could measure the technical-economic consequences to operate in an operational status different from optimal. Thus, integrated systems management tools has been increasingly adopted in decision-support in production units. This paper proposes a methodology for the development of adaptive models, embedded in integrated management. This research also incorporates a software development, called Production Planning and Control of Thermo Electrical Co-Generation Unit that, connected to industrial plants' supervision layer, adapt its model in real time. (author)

  1. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

    2016-01-01

    Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status. PMID:26808087

  2. Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

    Mariella Siña

    Full Text Available Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

  3. Guidance of treatment decisions in risk-adapted primary radiotherapy for prostate cancer using multiparametric magnetic resonance imaging: a single center experience

    Magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the prostate is considered to be the most precise noninvasive staging modality for localized prostate cancer. Multiparametric MRI (mpMRI) dynamic sequences have recently been shown to further increase the accuracy of staging relative to morphological imaging alone. Correct radiological staging, particularly the detection of extraprostatic disease extension, is of paramount importance for target volume definition and dose prescription in highly-conformal curative radiotherapy (RT); in addition, it may affect the risk-adapted duration of additional antihormonal therapy. The purpose of our study was to analyze the impact of mpMRI-based tumor staging in patients undergoing primary RT for prostate cancer. A total of 122 patients admitted for primary RT for prostate cancer were retrospectively analyzed regarding initial clinical and computed tomography-based staging in comparison with mpMRI staging. Both tumor stage shifts and overall risk group shifts, including prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level and the Gleason score, were assessed. Potential risk factors for upstaging were tested in a multivariate analysis. Finally, the impact of mpMRI-based staging shift on prostate RT and antihormonal therapy was evaluated. Overall, tumor stage shift occurred in 55.7% of patients after mpMRI. Upstaging was most prominent in patients showing high-risk serum PSA levels (73%), but was also substantial in patients presenting with low-risk PSA levels (50%) and low-risk Gleason scores (45.2%). Risk group changes occurred in 28.7% of the patients with consequent treatment adaptations regarding target volume delineation and duration of androgen deprivation therapy. High PSA levels were found to be a significant risk factor for tumor upstaging and newly diagnosed seminal vesicle infiltration assessed using mpMRI. Our findings suggest that mpMRI of the prostate leads to substantial tumor upstaging, and can considerably affect treatment decisions in all

  4. Propose a Model for Customer Purchase Decision in B2C Websites Using Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System

    Mehrbakhsh Nilashi, Mohammad Fathian, Mohammad Reza Gholamian, Othman bin Ibrahim

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available If companies are to enjoy long-term success in the Internet marketplace, they must effectivelymanage the complex, multidimensional process of building online consumer trust. The onlineenvironment and the quality and usability of websites help the browser and consumer to beattracted and accessible to the information and the product and services available online. In thisPaper a new model would be suggested based on neuro-fuzzy System which depicts some of thehidden relationships between the critical factors such as security, familiarity, and designing in aB2C commercial website on other hand, and the competitive factor to other competitors on otherhand. Then, the impacts of these factors on purchasing decision of consumers in B2Ccommercial websites are extracted. We are going to find the impact of these factors on thedecision-making process of people to buy through the B2C commercial websites, and we also willanalyze how these factors influence the results of the B2C trading. The study also provides adevice for sellers to improve their commercial websites. Two questionnaires were used in thisstudy. The first questionnaire was developed for e-commerce experts, and the second one wasdesigned for the customers of commercial websites. Also, Expert Choice is used to determine thepriority of factors in the first questionnaire, and MATLAB and Excel are used for developing theFuzzy rules. Finally, the Fuzzy logical kit was use to analyze the generated factors in the model.

  5. MicroRNAs Establish Robustness and Adaptability of a Critical Gene Network to Regulate Progenitor Fate Decisions during Cortical Neurogenesis

    Tanay Ghosh

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Over the course of cortical neurogenesis, the transition of progenitors from proliferation to differentiation requires a precise regulation of involved gene networks under varying environmental conditions. In order to identify such regulatory mechanisms, we analyzed microRNA (miRNA target networks in progenitors during early and late stages of neurogenesis. We found that cyclin D1 is a network hub whose expression is miRNA-dosage sensitive. Experimental validation revealed a feedback regulation between cyclin D1 and its regulating miRNAs miR-20a, miR-20b, and miR-23a. Cyclin D1 induces expression of miR-20a and miR-20b, whereas it represses miR-23a. Inhibition of any of these miRNAs increases the developmental stage-specific mean and dynamic expression range (variance of cyclin D1 protein in progenitors, leading to reduced neuronal differentiation. Thus, miRNAs establish robustness and stage-specific adaptability to a critical dosage-sensitive gene network during cortical neurogenesis. Understanding such network regulatory mechanisms for key developmental events can provide insights into individual susceptibilities for genetically complex neuropsychiatric disorders.

  6. Application of adaptive design and decision making to a phase II trial of a phosphodiesterase inhibitor for the treatment of intermittent claudication

    Teerlink John R

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Claudication secondary to peripheral artery disease (PAD is associated with substantial functional impairment. Phosphodiesterase (PDE inhibitors have been shown to increase walking performance in these patients. K-134 is a selective PDE 3 inhibitor being developed as a potential treatment for claudication. The use of K-134, as with other PDE 3 inhibitors, in patients with PAD raises important safety and tolerability concerns, including the induction of cardiac ischemia, tachycardia, and hypotension. We describe the design, oversight, and implementation of an adaptive, phase II, dose-finding trial evaluating K-134 for the treatment of stable, intermittent claudication. Methods The study design was a double-blind, multi-dose (25 mg, 50 mg, and 100 mg of K-134, randomized trial with both placebo and active comparator arms conducted in the United States and Russia. The primary objective of the study was to compare the highest tolerable dose of K-134 versus placebo using peak walking time after 26 weeks of therapy as the primary outcome. Study visits with intensive safety assessments were included early in the study period to provide data for adaptive decision making. The trial used an adaptive, dose-finding strategy to efficiently identify the highest dose(s most likely to be safe and well tolerated, based on the side effect profiles observed within the trial, so that less promising doses could be abandoned. Protocol specified criteria for safety and tolerability endpoints were used and modeled prior to the adaptive decision making. The maximum target sample size was 85 subjects in each of the retained treatment arms. Results When 199 subjects had been randomized and 28-day data were available from 143, the Data Monitoring Committee (DMC recommended termination of the lowest dose (25 mg treatment arm. Safety evaluations performed during 14- and 28-day visits which included in-clinic dosing and assessments at peak drug

  7. An engineered approach to stem cell culture: automating the decision process for real-time adaptive subculture of stem cells.

    Dai Fei Elmer Ker

    Full Text Available Current cell culture practices are dependent upon human operators and remain laborious and highly subjective, resulting in large variations and inconsistent outcomes, especially when using visual assessments of cell confluency to determine the appropriate time to subculture cells. Although efforts to automate cell culture with robotic systems are underway, the majority of such systems still require human intervention to determine when to subculture. Thus, it is necessary to accurately and objectively determine the appropriate time for cell passaging. Optimal stem cell culturing that maintains cell pluripotency while maximizing cell yields will be especially important for efficient, cost-effective stem cell-based therapies. Toward this goal we developed a real-time computer vision-based system that monitors the degree of cell confluency with a precision of 0.791±0.031 and recall of 0.559±0.043. The system consists of an automated phase-contrast time-lapse microscope and a server. Multiple dishes are sequentially imaged and the data is uploaded to the server that performs computer vision processing, predicts when cells will exceed a pre-defined threshold for optimal cell confluency, and provides a Web-based interface for remote cell culture monitoring. Human operators are also notified via text messaging and e-mail 4 hours prior to reaching this threshold and immediately upon reaching this threshold. This system was successfully used to direct the expansion of a paradigm stem cell population, C2C12 cells. Computer-directed and human-directed control subcultures required 3 serial cultures to achieve the theoretical target cell yield of 50 million C2C12 cells and showed no difference for myogenic and osteogenic differentiation. This automated vision-based system has potential as a tool toward adaptive real-time control of subculturing, cell culture optimization and quality assurance/quality control, and it could be integrated with current and

  8. Strategic Adaptation

    Andersen, Torben Juul

    2015-01-01

    This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related...... concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation...

  9. Net-zero Building Cluster Simulations and On-line Energy Forecasting for Adaptive and Real-Time Control and Decisions

    Li, Xiwang

    Buildings consume about 41.1% of primary energy and 74% of the electricity in the U.S. Moreover, it is estimated by the National Energy Technology Laboratory that more than 1/4 of the 713 GW of U.S. electricity demand in 2010 could be dispatchable if only buildings could respond to that dispatch through advanced building energy control and operation strategies and smart grid infrastructure. In this study, it is envisioned that neighboring buildings will have the tendency to form a cluster, an open cyber-physical system to exploit the economic opportunities provided by a smart grid, distributed power generation, and storage devices. Through optimized demand management, these building clusters will then reduce overall primary energy consumption and peak time electricity consumption, and be more resilient to power disruptions. Therefore, this project seeks to develop a Net-zero building cluster simulation testbed and high fidelity energy forecasting models for adaptive and real-time control and decision making strategy development that can be used in a Net-zero building cluster. The following research activities are summarized in this thesis: 1) Development of a building cluster emulator for building cluster control and operation strategy assessment. 2) Development of a novel building energy forecasting methodology using active system identification and data fusion techniques. In this methodology, a systematic approach for building energy system characteristic evaluation, system excitation and model adaptation is included. The developed methodology is compared with other literature-reported building energy forecasting methods; 3) Development of the high fidelity on-line building cluster energy forecasting models, which includes energy forecasting models for buildings, PV panels, batteries and ice tank thermal storage systems 4) Small scale real building validation study to verify the performance of the developed building energy forecasting methodology. The outcomes of

  10. Foundations for Reasoning in Cognition-Based Computational Representations of Human Decision Making; TOPICAL

    In exploring the question of how humans reason in ambiguous situations or in the absence of complete information, we stumbled onto a body of knowledge that addresses issues beyond the original scope of our effort. We have begun to understand the importance that philosophy, in particular the work of C. S. Peirce, plays in developing models of human cognition and of information theory in general. We have a foundation that can serve as a basis for further studies in cognition and decision making. Peircean philosophy provides a foundation for understanding human reasoning and capturing behavioral characteristics of decision makers due to cultural, physiological, and psychological effects. The present paper describes this philosophical approach to understanding the underpinnings of human reasoning. We present the work of C. S. Peirce, and define sets of fundamental reasoning behavior that would be captured in the mathematical constructs of these newer technologies and would be able to interact in an agent type framework. Further, we propose the adoption of a hybrid reasoning model based on his work for future computational representations or emulations of human cognition

  11. Bayesian integrated testing strategy (ITS) for skin sensitization potency assessment: a decision support system for quantitative weight of evidence and adaptive testing strategy.

    Jaworska, Joanna S; Natsch, Andreas; Ryan, Cindy; Strickland, Judy; Ashikaga, Takao; Miyazawa, Masaaki

    2015-12-01

    The presented Bayesian network Integrated Testing Strategy (ITS-3) for skin sensitization potency assessment is a decision support system for a risk assessor that provides quantitative weight of evidence, leading to a mechanistically interpretable potency hypothesis, and formulates adaptive testing strategy for a chemical. The system was constructed with an aim to improve precision and accuracy for predicting LLNA potency beyond ITS-2 (Jaworska et al., J Appl Toxicol 33(11):1353-1364, 2013) by improving representation of chemistry and biology. Among novel elements are corrections for bioavailability both in vivo and in vitro as well as consideration of the individual assays' applicability domains in the prediction process. In ITS-3 structure, three validated alternative assays, DPRA, KeratinoSens and h-CLAT, represent first three key events of the adverse outcome pathway for skin sensitization. The skin sensitization potency prediction is provided as a probability distribution over four potency classes. The probability distribution is converted to Bayes factors to: 1) remove prediction bias introduced by the training set potency distribution and 2) express uncertainty in a quantitative manner, allowing transparent and consistent criteria to accept a prediction. The novel ITS-3 database includes 207 chemicals with a full set of in vivo and in vitro data. The accuracy for predicting LLNA outcomes on the external test set (n = 60) was as follows: hazard (two classes)-100 %, GHS potency classification (three classes)-96 %, potency (four classes)-89 %. This work demonstrates that skin sensitization potency prediction based on data from three key events, and often less, is possible, reliable over broad chemical classes and ready for practical applications. PMID:26612363

  12. Final report of the NOR project "Management of reindeer pastures under uncertainty" Report title: "A decision-tool for adaptation of reindeer herds to rangeland: the user's manual".

    Erling Moxnes; Öje Danell; Eldar Gaare; Jouko Kumpula

    2003-01-01

    The management of reindeer ranges is a complicated task as indicated both by the complexity of the normative analyses required and the mismanagement observed in real and laboratory settings. The present report is a user's manual to a decision-tool that attempts to strike a balance between complex normative analyses and practical decision-making. A simulator is provided to give decision-makers experience with the tool and to build intuition for strategies. Several cases are used to illustrate ...

  13. A SCORING SYSTEM TO IMPROVE DECISION MAKING AND OUTCOMES IN THE ADAPTATION OF RECENTLY CAPTURED WHITE RHINOCEROSES (CERATOTHERIUM SIMUM) TO CAPTIVITY.

    Miller, Michele; Kruger, Milandie; Kruger, Marius; Olea-Popelka, Francisco; Buss, Peter

    2016-04-01

    Ninety-four subadult and adult white rhinoceroses (Ceratotherium simum) were captured between February and October, 2009-11, in Kruger National Park and placed in holding bomas prior to translocation to other locations within South Africa. A simple three-category system was developed based on appetite, fecal consistency/volume, and behavior to assess adaptation to bomas. Individual animal and group daily median scores were used to determine trends and when rhinoceroses had successfully adapted to the boma. Seventeen rhinoceroses did not adapt to boma confinement, and 16 were released (1 mortality). No differences in boma scores were observed between rhinoceroses that adapted and those that did not, until day 8, when the first significant differences were observed (adapted score=13 versus nonadapted score=10). The time to reach a boma score determined as successful adaptation (median 19 d) matched subjective observations, which was approximately 3 wk for most rhinoceroses. Unsuccessful adaptation was indicated by an individual boma score of less than 15, typically during the first 2 wk, or a declining trend in scores within the first 7-14 d. This scoring system can be used for most locations and could also be easily adapted to other areas in which rhinoceroses are held in captivity. This tool also provides important information for assessing welfare in newly captured rhinoceroses. PMID:26845302

  14. Final report of the NOR project "Management of reindeer pastures under uncertainty" Report title: "A decision-tool for adaptation of reindeer herds to rangeland: the user's manual".

    Erling Moxnes

    2003-04-01

    Full Text Available The management of reindeer ranges is a complicated task as indicated both by the complexity of the normative analyses required and the mismanagement observed in real and laboratory settings. The present report is a user's manual to a decision-tool that attempts to strike a balance between complex normative analyses and practical decision-making. A simulator is provided to give decision-makers experience with the tool and to build intuition for strategies. Several cases are used to illustrate the use of the decision-tool and to demonstrate how even scarce and imprecise data can yield important insights. The project has been financed by "Nordisk ministerråd" ("Nordic Council of Ministers" under the program "Nordiska miljöstrategin för jord- och skogsbruk 1996-1999" ("Nordic Environmental Strategies for Agriculture and Forestry 1996-1999". It was initiated and administered by "Nordisk organ for reinforskning" (NOR ("Nordic Council for Reindeer Research".

  15. Usability evaluation and adaptation of the e-health Personal Patient Profile-Prostate decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latino men

    Berry, Donna L.; Halpenny, Barbara; Bosco, Jaclyn L.F.; Bruyere, John; Sanda, Martin G.

    2015-01-01

    Background The Personal Patient Profile-Prostate (P3P), a web-based decision aid, was demonstrated to reduce decisional conflict in English-speaking men with localized prostate cancer early after initial diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to explore and enhance usability and cultural appropriateness of a Spanish P3P by Latino men with a diagnosis of prostate cancer. Methods P3P was translated to Spanish and back-translated by three native Spanish-speaking translators working independent...

  16. An adaptive incremental approach to constructing ensemble classifiers: Application in an information-theoretic computer-aided decision system for detection of masses in mammograms

    Ensemble classifiers have been shown efficient in multiple applications. In this article, the authors explore the effectiveness of ensemble classifiers in a case-based computer-aided diagnosis system for detection of masses in mammograms. They evaluate two general ways of constructing subclassifiers by resampling of the available development dataset: Random division and random selection. Furthermore, they discuss the problem of selecting the ensemble size and propose two adaptive incremental techniques that automatically select the size for the problem at hand. All the techniques are evaluated with respect to a previously proposed information-theoretic CAD system (IT-CAD). The experimental results show that the examined ensemble techniques provide a statistically significant improvement (AUC=0.905±0.024) in performance as compared to the original IT-CAD system (AUC=0.865±0.029). Some of the techniques allow for a notable reduction in the total number of examples stored in the case base (to 1.3% of the original size), which, in turn, results in lower storage requirements and a shorter response time of the system. Among the methods examined in this article, the two proposed adaptive techniques are by far the most effective for this purpose. Furthermore, the authors provide some discussion and guidance for choosing the ensemble parameters.

  17. Split Decisions, Split Decisions

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The lead stories in Nature and Science went in opposite directions this week. Science chose outer space, launching into NASA’s hotly disputed decision to shelve a planned mission to Pluto. Nature plunged into inner space with a story about a report to the European Commission advising against granting “premature” approval to create human embryos for stem-cell research.

  18. A Closer Look at the Effects of Repeated Cocaine Exposure on Adaptive Decision-Making under Conditions That Promote Goal-Directed Control.

    Halbout, Briac; Liu, Angela T; Ostlund, Sean B

    2016-01-01

    It has been proposed that compulsive drug seeking reflects an underlying dysregulation in adaptive behavior that favors habitual (automatic and inflexible) over goal-directed (deliberative and highly flexible) action selection. Rodent studies have established that repeated exposure to cocaine or amphetamine facilitates the development of habits, producing behavior that becomes unusually insensitive to a reduction in the value of its outcome. The current study more directly investigated the effects of cocaine pre-exposure on goal-directed learning and action selection using an approach that discourages habitual performance. After undergoing a 15-day series of cocaine (15 or 30 mg/kg, i.p.) or saline injections and a drug withdrawal period, rats were trained to perform two different lever-press actions for distinct reward options. During a subsequent outcome devaluation test, both cocaine- and saline-treated rats showed a robust bias in their choice between the two actions, preferring whichever action had been trained with the reward that retained its value. Thus, it appears that the tendency for repeated cocaine exposure to promote habit formation does not extend to a more complex behavioral scenario that encourages goal-directed control. To further explore this issue, we assessed how prior cocaine treatment would affect the rats' ability to learn about a selective reduction in the predictive relationship between one of the two actions and its outcome, which is another fundamental feature of goal-directed behavior. Interestingly, we found that cocaine-treated rats showed enhanced, rather than diminished, sensitivity to this action-outcome contingency degradation manipulation. Given their mutual dependence on striatal dopamine signaling, we suggest that cocaine's effects on habit formation and contingency learning may stem from a common adaptation in this neurochemical system. PMID:27047400

  19. A closer look at the effects of repeated cocaine exposure on adaptive decision making under conditions that promote goal-directed control

    Briac eHalbout

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available It has been proposed that compulsive drug seeking reflects an underlying dysregulation in adaptive behavior that favors habitual (automatic and inflexible over goal-directed (deliberative and highly flexible action selection. Rodent studies have established that repeated exposure to cocaine or amphetamine facilitates the development of habits, producing behavior that becomes unusually insensitive to a reduction in the value of its outcome. The current study more directly investigated the effects of cocaine pre-exposure on goal-directed learning and action selection using an approach that discourages habitual performance. After undergoing a 15-d series of cocaine (15 or 30 mg/kg, i.p. or saline injections and a drug withdrawal period, rats were trained to perform two different lever-press actions for distinct reward options. During a subsequent outcome devaluation test, both cocaine- and saline-treated rats showed a robust bias in their choice between the two actions, preferring whichever action had been trained with the reward that retained its value. Thus it appears that the tendency for repeated cocaine exposure to promote habit formation does not extend to a more complex behavioral scenario that encourages goal-directed control. To further explore this issue, we assessed how prior cocaine treatment would affect the rats’ ability to learn about a selective reduction in the predictive relationship between one of the two actions and its outcome, which is another fundamental feature of goal-directed behavior. Interestingly, we found that cocaine-treated rats showed enhanced, rather than diminished, sensitivity to this action-outcome contingency degradation manipulation. Given their mutual dependence on striatal dopamine signaling, we suggest that cocaine’s effects on habit formation and contingency learning may stem from a common adaptation in this neurochemical system.

  20. Development of a decision support system for the adaptation to climate change using water management as an example; Entwicklung eines Entscheidungsunterstuetzungssystems zur Anpassung an den Klimawandel am Beispiel der Wasserwirtschaft

    Heinisch, Timo

    2010-07-01

    Water management adaption strategies due to climate change are a very prevailing topic which is often discussed in the media. In the work at hand, the author has treated this subject within the research project of the Federal Ministry of Environment (BMU), Nature Protection and Reactor Safety - coached by the Federal Environment Agency (UBA) - and has developed a new decision support system (DSS), named ''WASKlim-EUS''. With the aid of this new system possible future situations of selected water uses - for certain drainage areas - can be demonstrated, taking into account climate change. On the basis of different adaption measures and their evaluation by stakeholders a defined adaption strategy can be implemented. The DSS is based on the methods of fuzzy-logic, the analytic hierarchical process and the utility analysis. Therefore the basis of the climate change and the meterorological and hydrological effects on the water management in Germany in general and on different water uses in particular were explained. Hence the exigency to develop a adaption strategy clearly emerges. The concept of the newly developed WASKlim-EUS - which in a four step configuration ranges from the identification of parameters, the evaluation of current states and measures to the election of the adaption strategy with the according program of measures - was described and the used methods wer explained in detail. By means of three mesoscale study areas the new DSS was put into practice. For the purpose user conferences and stakeholder interviews were carried out and evaluated. For the Wupper catchment need of action was indicated for the sectors of water power plants, cooling water output and input and fishery. For the catchment area of the Salza all considered water uses were identified as vulnerable. For the catchment area of the Upper Iller, need of action was detected for the water situation in general, the fishery and the effluent from sewage treatment plants

  1. Enabling Philippine Farmers to Adapt to Climate Variability Using Seasonal Climate and Weather Forecast with a Crop Simulation Model in an SMS-based Farmer Decision Support System

    Ebardaloza, J. B. R.; Trogo, R.; Sabido, D. J.; Tongson, E.; Bagtasa, G.; Balderama, O. F.

    2015-12-01

    Corn farms in the Philippines are rainfed farms, hence, it is of utmost importance to choose the start of planting date so that the critical growth stages that are in need of water will fall on dates when there is rain. Most farmers in the Philippines use superstitions and traditions as basis for farming decisions such as when to start planting [1]. Before climate change, superstitions like planting after a feast day of a saint has worked for them but with the recent progression of climate change, farmers now recognize that there is a need for technological intervention [1]. The application discussed in this paper presents a solution that makes use of meteorological station sensors, localized seasonal climate forecast, localized weather forecast and a crop simulation model to provide recommendations to farmers based on the crop cultivar, soil type and fertilizer type used by farmers. It is critical that the recommendations given to farmers are not generic as each farmer would have different needs based on their cultivar, soil, fertilizer, planting schedule and even location [2]. This application allows the farmer to inquire about whether it will rain in the next seven days, the best date to start planting based on the potential yield upon harvest, when to apply fertilizer and by how much, when to water and by how much. Short messaging service (SMS) is the medium chosen for this application because while mobile penetration in the Philippines is as high as 101%, the smart phone penetration is only at 15% [3]. SMS has been selected as it has been identified as the most effective way of reaching farmers with timely agricultural information and knowledge [4,5]. The recommendations while derived from making use of Automated Weather Station (AWS) sensor data, Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) models and DSSAT 4.5 [9], are translated into the local language of the farmers and in a format that is easily understood as recommended in [6,7,8]. A pilot study has been started

  2. 基于改进决策树算法的Web数据库查询结果自动分类方法%A Categorization Approach Based on Adapted Decision Tree Algorithm for Web Databases Query Results

    孟祥福; 马宗民; 张霄雁; 王星

    2012-01-01

    To deal with the problem that too many results are returned from a Web database in response to a user query, this paper proposes a novel approach based on adapted decision tree algorithm for automatically categorizing Web database query results. The query history of all users in the system is analyzed offline and then similar queries in semantics are merged into the same cluster. Next, a set of tuple clusters over the original data is generated in accordance to the query clusters, each tuple cluster corresponding to one type of user preferences. When a query is coming, based on the tuple clusters generated in the offline time, a labeled and leveled categorization tree, which can enable the user to easily select and locate the information he/she needs, is constructed by using the adapted decision tree algorithm. Experimental results demonstrate that the categorization approach has lower navigational cost and better categorization effectiveness, and can meet different type user's personalized query needs effectively as well.%为了解决Web数据库多查询结果问题,提出了一种基于改进决策树算法的Web数据库查询结果自动分类方法.该方法在离线阶段分析系统中所有用户的查询历史并聚合语义上相似的查询,根据聚合的查询将原始数据划分成多个元组聚类,每个元组聚类对应一种类型的用户偏好.当查询到来时,基于离线阶段划分的元组聚类,利用改进的决策树算法在查询结果集上自动构建一个带标签的分层分类树,使得用户能够通过检查标签的方式快速选择和定位其所需信息.实验结果表明,提出的分类方法具有较低的搜索代价和较好的分类效果,能够有效地满足不同类型用户的个性化查询需求.

  3. Addressing Climate Change Adaptation in Regional Transportation Plans in California: A Guide and Online Visualization Tool for Planners to Incorporate Risks of Climate Change Impacts in Policy and Decision-Making

    Tao, W.; Tucker, K.; DeFlorio, J.

    2012-12-01

    for the strategy framework. The strategy framework for MPOs and RTPAs is used to: 1) Assess the relative risks to their transportation system infrastructure and services of different climate stressors (sea level rise, temperature changes, snow melt, precipita¬tion changes, flooding, extreme weather events); 2) Conduct an asset inventory and vulnerability assessment of existing infrastructure; 3) Prioritize segments and facilities for adaptation action; 4) Identify appropriate and cost-effective adaptation strategies; and 5) Incorporate climate impact considerations into future long-range transportation planning and investment decisions. This framework complements the broader planning and investment processes that MPOs and RTPAs already manage. It recognizes the varying capacities and resources among MPOs and RTPAs and provide methods that can be used by organizations seeking to conduct in-depth analysis or a more sketch-level assessment.

  4. Rational decisions

    Binmore, Ken

    2008-01-01

    It is widely held that Bayesian decision theory is the final word on how a rational person should make decisions. However, Leonard Savage--the inventor of Bayesian decision theory--argued that it would be ridiculous to use his theory outside the kind of small world in which it is always possible to ""look before you leap."" If taken seriously, this view makes Bayesian decision theory inappropriate for the large worlds of scientific discovery and macroeconomic enterprise. When is it correct to use Bayesian decision theory--and when does it need to be modified? Using a minimum of mathematics,

  5. Ethical Decision Making

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical ‘Organic Stakeholder Model’ based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a ...

  6. Adaptive Rationality, Adaptive Behavior and Institutions

    Volchik Vyacheslav, V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available The economic literature focused on understanding decision-making and choice processes reveals a vast collection of approaches to human rationality. Theorists’ attention has moved from absolutely rational, utility-maximizing individuals to boundedly rational and adaptive ones. A number of economists have criticized the concepts of adaptive rationality and adaptive behavior. One of the recent trends in the economic literature is to consider humans irrational. This paper offers an approach which examines adaptive behavior in the context of existing institutions and constantly changing institutional environment. It is assumed that adaptive behavior is a process of evolutionary adjustment to fundamental uncertainty. We emphasize the importance of actors’ engagement in trial and error learning, since if they are involved in this process, they obtain experience and are able to adapt to existing and new institutions. The paper aims at identifying relevant institutions, adaptive mechanisms, informal working rules and practices that influence actors’ behavior in the field of Higher Education in Russia (Rostov Region education services market has been taken as an example. The paper emphasizes the application of qualitative interpretative methods (interviews and discourse analysis in examining actors’ behavior.

  7. Ethical Decision Making

    Lauesen, Linne Marie

    2012-01-01

    interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the......Purpose: For the last three decades, Stakeholder management has been concerned either with strategic business management or business ethics, values and quality. Many models have been developed, but recently the literature asks for more dynamic models that can explain the complexities of the...

  8. Composite collective decision-making.

    Czaczkes, Tomer J; Czaczkes, Benjamin; Iglhaut, Carolin; Heinze, Jürgen

    2015-06-22

    Individual animals are adept at making decisions and have cognitive abilities, such as memory, which allow them to hone their decisions. Social animals can also share information. This allows social animals to make adaptive group-level decisions. Both individual and collective decision-making systems also have drawbacks and limitations, and while both are well studied, the interaction between them is still poorly understood. Here, we study how individual and collective decision-making interact during ant foraging. We first gathered empirical data on memory-based foraging persistence in the ant Lasius niger. We used these data to create an agent-based model where ants may use social information (trail pheromones), private information (memories) or both to make foraging decisions. The combined use of social and private information by individuals results in greater efficiency at the group level than when either information source was used alone. The modelled ants couple consensus decision-making, allowing them to quickly exploit high-quality food sources, and combined decision-making, allowing different individuals to specialize in exploiting different resource patches. Such a composite collective decision-making system reaps the benefits of both its constituent parts. Exploiting such insights into composite collective decision-making may lead to improved decision-making algorithms. PMID:26019155

  9. Adaptive Criterion Setting in Perceptual Decision Making

    Stüttgen, Maik C.; Yildiz, Ali; Güntürkün, Onur

    2011-01-01

    Pigeons responded in a perceptual categorization task with six different stimuli (shades of gray), three of which were to be classified as “light” or “dark”, respectively. Reinforcement probability for correct responses was varied from 0.2 to 0.6 across blocks of sessions and was unequal for correct light and dark responses. Introduction of a new reinforcement contingency resulted in a biphasic process of adjustment: First, choices were strongly biased towards the favored alternative, which w...

  10. Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

    Stefania Munaretto; Giuseppina Siciliano; Margherita E. Turvani

    2014-01-01

    Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate adaptation, adaptive governance seems to be a promising approach for improving climate adaptation governance. However, the adaptive governance literature has so far paid little attention to decisi...

  11. Comparison of Adaptive Information Security Approaches

    Antti Evesti; Eila Ovaska

    2013-01-01

    Dynamically changing environments and threat landscapes require adaptive information security. Adaptive information security makes it possible to change and modify security mechanisms at runtime. Hence, all security decisions are not enforced at design-time. This paper builds a framework to compare security adaptation approaches. The framework contains three viewpoints, that is, adaptation, security, and lifecycle. Furthermore, the paper describes five security adaptation approaches and compa...

  12. ENTREPRENEURSHIP AS DECISION MAKING: RATIONAL, INTUITIVE AND IMPROVISATIONAL APPROACHES

    Miguel Pina e Cunha

    2007-01-01

    In this paper entrepreneurship is presented as decision making. Mintzberg and Westley's (2001) decision making typology is adapted to the case of entrepreneurial decision making. These authors complemented the rational, step-by-step mode of decision making, with the intuitive and improvisational modes, Complementing the rational view of decision making with the analysis of entrepreneurship as intuitive or improvisational decision making, a richer and more integrated understanding of entrepren...

  13. Adaptive gain control during human perceptual choice

    Cheadle, Samuel; WYART, Valentin; Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Myers, Nicholas; de Gardelle, Vincent; Herce Castañón, Santiago; Summerfield, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Neural systems adapt to background levels of stimulation. Adaptive gain control has been extensively studied in sensory systems, but overlooked in decision-theoretic models. Here, we describe evidence for adaptive gain control during the serial integration of decision-relevant information. Human observers judged the average information provided by a rapid stream of visual events (samples). The impact that each sample wielded over choices depended on its consistency with the previous sample, w...

  14. Emotional Decisions

    Barnes, Allison; Thagard, Paul

    1996-01-01

    Recent research has yielded an explosion of literature that establishes a strong connection between emotional and cognitive processes. Most notably, Antonio Damasio draws an intimate connection between emotion and cognition in practical decision making. Damasio presents a "somatic marker" hypothesis which explains how emotions are biologically indispensable to decisions. His research on patients with frontal lobe damage indicates that feelings normally accompany response options and operate a...

  15. Adaptive Lighting

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive LightingAdaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled i...

  16. Failing Decision

    Knudsen, Morten

    2014-01-01

    deals not with traffic delays, but with failing decisions in organizations. The assumption of this chapter is that failing decisions today are as normal as delayed trains. Instead of being the exception, failure is part of the everyday reproduction of organizations – as an uncontrolled effect but also...... also propelled by an interest in failure as one way of improving understanding of present-day decision making in organizations.......Recently the Danish subway trains have begun to announce “on time” when they arrive at a station on time. This action reflects a worrying acceptance of the normality of failure. If trains were generally expected to be on time, there would be no reason to – triumphantly – announce it. This chapter...

  17. Organizational Decision

    Kreiner, Kristian

    2012-01-01

    architectural competitions and claim that they reflect necessity more than vice. They are ways around the fundamental incommensurability of the alternative design proposals. The garbage can model is used as a framework for making sense of the observed counterintuitive ways of decision making. Its attempt to...

  18. Statistical decisions

    Topics covered in this chapter include a discussion of hypothesis tests as related to the concept of nuclear materials management and accounting in nuclear facilities. Hypothesis tests related to an individual measurement, an individual material balance, and a sequence of materials balances are discussed. The discussion of a sequence of materials balances includes the innovation sequence, sequential decision making, and performance measures

  19. Adaptation: Needs, Financing and Institutions

    Klein, Richard J.T.; Kartha, Sivan; Persson, Aasa; Watkiss, Paul; Ackerman, Frank; Downing, Thomas E.; Kjellen, Bo; Schipper, Lisa (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (SE))

    2008-07-01

    the polluter-pays principle. The use of such mechanisms needs to be expanded. Developed countries should provide clarity on how official development assistance and various bilateral and multilateral funds for adaptation can complement one another. They should also address concerns that mainstreaming adaptation may not lead to new and additional funding. Institutions involved in adaptation need to be streamlined and reflect the reality of adaptation decision-making. Adaptation is not additional or incremental to baseline investments but involves investments in capacity and integration of adaptation measures into ongoing planning and development. Underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change must be addressed as part of overall efforts to build safe and resilient communities. In addition, synergies must be created between adaptation to extreme weather events and implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action

  20. Adaptive skills

    Staša Stropnik; Jana Kodrič

    2013-01-01

    Adaptive skills are defined as a collection of conceptual, social and practical skills that are learned by people in order to function in their everyday lives. They include an individual's ability to adapt to and manage her or his surroundings to effectively function and meet social or community expectations. Good adaptive skills promote individual's independence in different environments, whereas poorly developed adaptive skills are connected to individual's dependency and with g...

  1. Single-photon decision maker

    Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

    2015-08-01

    Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

  2. Adaptive Lighting

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... distributed differently into an architectural body. We also examine what might occur when light is dynamic and able to change colour, intensity and direction, and when it is adaptive and can be brought into interaction with its surroundings. In short, what happens to an architectural space when artificial...

  3. Decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions

    Chikalov, Igor

    2011-01-01

    In the paper, authors presents a greedy algorithm for construction of exact and partial decision rules for decision tables with many-valued decisions. Exact decision rules can be \\'over-fitted\\', so instead of exact decision rules with many attributes, it is more appropriate to work with partial decision rules with smaller number of attributes. Based on results for set cover problem authors study bounds on accuracy of greedy algorithm for exact and partial decision rule construction, and complexity of the problem of minimization of decision rule length. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.

  4. Inescapable Decisions

    Wieser, Bernhard

    2006-01-01

    The main ethical principle in prenatal testing is the autonomous decision of the pregnant woman concerned. However, recent developments in prenatal testing undermine this model. The overall number of invasive prenatal examinations has dropped significantly. Yet, the amount of pathologic results has increased. Due to the improvement in ultrasound diagnostics the predictability of possible disabilities or diseases of the unborn child has increased substantially. As a result of this pregnant wom...

  5. International cooperation on climate change adaptation from an economic perspective

    Bruin, de, W.; Dellink, R.B.; Tol, R.S.J.

    2010-01-01

    This paper investigates the economic incentives of countries to cooperate on international adaptation financing. Adaptation is generally implicitly incorporated in the climate change damage functions as used in Integrated Assessment Models. We replace the implicit decision on adaptation with explicit adaptation in a multi-regional setting by using an adjusted RICE model. We show that making adaptation explicit will not affect the optimal mitigation path when adaptation is set at its optimal l...

  6. Evolution, Learning, and Semiotics from a Peircean Point of View

    Otte, Michael Friedrich

    2011-01-01

    One of the most salient arguments in favor of a semiotic approach, put forward on various occasions among others by Luis Radford, claims that semiotics is most appropriate to treat the interaction between socio-cultural and objective aspects of knowledge problems. But if we want to take such claims seriously, we have to undertake revisions of our…

  7. How Peircean was the "'Fregean' Revolution" in Logic?

    Anellis, Irving H.

    2012-01-01

    The historiography of logic conceives of a Fregean revolution in which modern mathematical logic (also called symbolic logic) has replaced Aristotelian logic. The preeminent expositors of this conception are Jean van Heijenoort (1912-1986) and Donald Angus Gillies. The innovations and characteristics that comprise mathematical logic and distinguish it from Aristotelian logic, according to this conception, created ex nihlo by Gottlob Frege (1848-1925) in his Begriffsschrift of 1879, and with B...

  8. How Peircean was the "'Fregean' Revolution" in Logic?

    Anellis, Irving H

    2012-01-01

    The historiography of logic conceives of a Fregean revolution in which modern mathematical logic (also called symbolic logic) has replaced Aristotelian logic. The preeminent expositors of this conception are Jean van Heijenoort (1912-1986) and Donald Angus Gillies. The innovations and characteristics that comprise mathematical logic and distinguish it from Aristotelian logic, according to this conception, created ex nihlo by Gottlob Frege (1848-1925) in his Begriffsschrift of 1879, and with Bertrand Russell (1872-1970) as its chief This position likewise understands the algebraic logic of Augustus De Morgan (1806-1871), George Boole (1815-1864), Charles Sanders Peirce (1838-1914), and Ernst Schr\\"oder (1841-1902) as belonging to the Aristotelian tradition. The "Booleans" are understood, from this vantage point, to merely have rewritten Aristotelian syllogistic in algebraic guise. The most detailed listing and elaboration of Frege's innovations, and the characteristics that distinguish mathematical logic from ...

  9. Adaptive Lighting

    Petersen, Kjell Yngve; Søndergaard, Karin; Kongshaug, Jesper

    2015-01-01

    Adaptive Lighting Adaptive lighting is based on a partial automation of the possibilities to adjust the colour tone and brightness levels of light in order to adapt to people’s needs and desires. IT support is key to the technical developments that afford adaptive control systems. The possibilities...... offered by adaptive lighting control are created by the ways that the system components, the network and data flow can be coordinated through software so that the dynamic variations are controlled in ways that meaningfully adapt according to people’s situations and design intentions. This book discusses...... the investigations of lighting scenarios carried out in two test installations: White Cube and White Box. The test installations are discussed as large-scale experiential instruments. In these test installations we examine what could potentially occur when light using LED technology is integrated and...

  10. Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

    Gati, Itamar

    1986-01-01

    Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

  11. Adaptive skills

    Staša Stropnik

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Adaptive skills are defined as a collection of conceptual, social and practical skills that are learned by people in order to function in their everyday lives. They include an individual's ability to adapt to and manage her or his surroundings to effectively function and meet social or community expectations. Good adaptive skills promote individual's independence in different environments, whereas poorly developed adaptive skills are connected to individual's dependency and with greater need for control and help with everyday tasks. Assessment of adaptive skills is often connected to assessment of intellectual disability, due to the reason that the diagnosis of intellectual disability includes lower levels of achievements on standardized tests of intellectual abilities as well as important deficits in adaptive skills. Assessment of adaptive behavior is a part of standard assessment battery with children and adults with different problems, disorders or disabilities that affect their everyday functioning. This contribution also presents psychometric tools most regularly used for assessment of adaptive skills and characteristics of adaptive skills with individual clinical groups.

  12. ADAPT Dataset

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Advanced Diagnostics and Prognostics Testbed (ADAPT) Project Lead: Scott Poll Subject Fault diagnosis in electrical power systems Description The Advanced...

  13. Administrative decisions

    This article reviews relevant administrative decisions that have been taken in various countries during the last semester of 1999 and the first one of 2000. In Argentina, an inter-ministerial commission has been settled to examine the prospects of completing the construction of the Atucha-2 unit. In Sweden, an agreement has been signed between Sydkraft, Vattenfall and the Swedish government on a compensation plan for the early shutdown of the Barsebaeck unit 1. In Switzerland, the government of the canton of Bern has rejected a constitutional initiative requesting the shutdown of the Muehleberg nuclear power plant. (A.C.)

  14. Classifying climate change adaptation frameworks

    Armstrong, Jennifer

    2014-05-01

    Complex socio-ecological demographics are factors that must be considered when addressing adaptation to the potential effects of climate change. As such, a suite of deployable climate change adaptation frameworks is necessary. Multiple frameworks that are required to communicate the risks of climate change and facilitate adaptation. Three principal adaptation frameworks have emerged from the literature; Scenario - Led (SL), Vulnerability - Led (VL) and Decision - Centric (DC). This study aims to identify to what extent these adaptation frameworks; either, planned or deployed are used in a neighbourhood vulnerable to climate change. This work presents a criterion that may be used as a tool for identifying the hallmarks of adaptation frameworks and thus enabling categorisation of projects. The study focussed on the coastal zone surrounding the Sizewell nuclear power plant in Suffolk in the UK. An online survey was conducted identifying climate change adaptation projects operating in the study area. This inventory was analysed to identify the hallmarks of each adaptation project; Levels of dependency on climate model information, Metrics/units of analysis utilised, Level of demographic knowledge, Level of stakeholder engagement, Adaptation implementation strategies and Scale of adaptation implementation. The study found that climate change adaptation projects could be categorised, based on the hallmarks identified, in accordance with the published literature. As such, the criterion may be used to establish the matrix of adaptation frameworks present in a given area. A comprehensive summary of the nature of adaptation frameworks in operation in a locality provides a platform for further comparative analysis. Such analysis, enabled by the criterion, may aid the selection of appropriate frameworks enhancing the efficacy of climate change adaptation.

  15. Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

    Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

    2003-02-01

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

  16. Decision Making and Revealed Preference

    de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique

    If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis. ....... Given advances in evolutionary psychology and neuroscience, I propose one way to model those evolutionary pressures that will hopefully prove useful in expanding normative economics.......If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...

  17. Group Decision Process Support

    Gøtze, John; Hijikata, Masao

    1997-01-01

    Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists.......Introducing the notion of Group Decision Process Support Systems (GDPSS) to traditional decision-support theorists....

  18. Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

    Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

    2003-02-25

    Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

  19. Decision theory and decision behaviour

    Rapoport, Anatol

    1998-01-01

    The book treats two approaches to decision theory: (1) the normative, purporting to determine how a 'perfectly rational' actor ought to choose among available alternatives; (2) the descriptive, based on observations of how people actually choose in real life and in laboratory experiments. The mathematical tools used in the normative approach range from elementary algebra to matrix and differential equations. Sections on different levels can be studied independently. Special emphasis is made on 'offshoots' of both theories to cognitive psychology, theoretical biology, and philosophy.

  20. Administrative decisions

    On 17 January 2002, the Finnish Council of State (the Government) had issued a positive Decision in Principle on the application made by the utility Teollisuuden Voima Oy (TVO) to construct a new nuclear power plant unit (see Nuclear Law Bulletin No. 69). At that time, the Council of State also declared that the liability amount of nuclear operators should be raised significantly, and three ministers issued a statement according to which the 1987 Nuclear Energy Act (the text of this Act is reproduced in the Supplement to Nuclear Law Bulletin No. 41) should be amended to ensure that the nuclear operator has to bear liability for the costs of radioactive waste management for 50 years after the repository has been closed. (author)

  1. Psychological conditions of adaptation to professional stress

    Nina Tereshenko

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available The article presents the results of empirical studies of the occupational stress and adaptation. The study shows that the process of adaptation to stress affect the socio-psychological characteristics. Constructive ways of behavior are: the choice of cooperation, a strong desire to be with people, taking responsibility and decision-making.

  2. Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

  3. Adaptive sensor fusion

    Kadar, Ivan

    1995-07-01

    A perceptual reasoning system adaptively extracting, associating, and fusing information from multiple sources, at various levels of abstraction, is considered as the building block for the next generation of surveillance systems. A system architecture is presented which makes use of both centralized and distributed predetection fusion combined with intelligent monitor and control coupling both on-platform and off-board track and decision level fusion results. The goal of this system is to create a `gestalt fused sensor system' whose information product is greater than the sum of the information products from the individual sensors and has performance superior to either individual or a sub-group of combined sensors. The application of this architectural concept to the law enforcement arena (e.g. drug interdiction) utilizing multiple spatially and temporally diverse surveillance platforms and/or information sources, is used to illustrate the benefits of the adaptive perceptual reasoning system concept.

  4. Adaptation Knowledge Discovery from a Case Base

    D'Aquin, Mathieu; Badra, Fadi; Lafrogne, Sandrine; Lieber, Jean; Napoli, Amedeo; Szathmary, Laszlo

    2006-01-01

    In case-based reasoning, the adaptation step depends in general on domain-dependent knowledge, which motivates studies on adaptation knowledge acquisition (AKA). CABAMAKA is an AKA system based on principles of knowledge discovery from databases. This system explores the variations within the case base to elicit adaptation knowledge. It has been successfully tested in an application of case-based decision support to breast cancer treatment.

  5. Mitochondrial function adaptations to changed metabolic conditions

    Bakkman, Linda

    2010-01-01

    The skeletal muscle mitochondria play a decisive role for the metabolic capacity of the body. A capability to adapt to changed metabolic conditions and energy demands is crucial for weight control and physical exercise. The aim of this thesis was to describe how the mitochondria adapt its function to different environmental conditions and changed metabolic demands. In study I, the aim was to evaluate mitochondrial adaptations to hypoxic exercise. The effect of one-legged...

  6. Ambiguous Adaptation

    Møller Larsen, Marcus; Lyngsie, Jacob

    We investigate why some exchange relationships terminate prematurely. We argue that investments in informal governance structures induce premature termination in relationships already governed by formal contracts. The formalized adaptive behavior of formal governance structures and the flexible and...... reciprocal adaptation of informal governance structure create ambiguity in situations of contingencies, which, subsequently, increases the likelihood of premature relationship termination. Using a large sample of exchange relationships in the global service provider industry, we find support for a hypothesis...

  7. Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

    Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian;

    2014-01-01

    ’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored in a...... crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness to or...

  8. Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation? Is adaptation. Truly an adaptation?

    Thais Flores Nogueira Diniz

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition, joined with the study of recycling, remaking, and every form of retelling. The film deals with the attempt by the scriptwriter Charles Kaufman, cast by Nicholas Cage, to adapt/translate a non-fictional book to the cinema, but ends up with a kind of film which is by no means what it intended to be: a film of action in the model of Hollywood productions. During the process of creation, Charles and his twin brother, Donald, undergo a series of adventures involving some real persons from the world of film, the author and the protagonist of the book, all of them turning into fictional characters in the film. In the film, adaptation then signifies something different from itstraditional meaning. The article begins by historicizing film adaptation from the arrival of cinema, pointing out the many theoretical approaches under which the process has been seen: from the concept of “the same story told in a different medium” to a comprehensible definition such as “the process through which works can be transformed, forming an intersection of textual surfaces, quotations, conflations and inversions of other texts”. To illustrate this new concept, the article discusses Spike Jonze’s film Adaptation. according to James Naremore’s proposal which considers the study of adaptation as part of a general theory of repetition

  9. Adaptive gain control during human perceptual choice

    Cheadle, Samuel; Wyart, Valentin; Tsetsos, Konstantinos; Myers, Nicholas; de Gardelle, Vincent; Castañón, Santiago Herce; Summerfield, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    Neural systems adapt to background levels of stimulation. Adaptive gain control has been extensively studied in sensory systems, but overlooked in decision-theoretic models. Here, we describe evidence for adaptive gain control during the serial integration of decision-relevant information. Human observers judged the average information provided by a rapid stream of visual events (samples). The impact that each sample wielded over choices depended on its consistency with the previous sample, with more consistent or expected samples wielding the greatest influence over choice. This bias was also visible in the encoding of decision information in pupillometric signals, and in cortical responses measured with functional neuroimaging. These data can be accounted for with a new serial sampling model in which the gain of information processing adapts rapidly to reflect the average of the available evidence. PMID:24656259

  10. Decision Making with Imperfect Decision Makers

    Guy, Tatiana Valentine; Wolpert, David H

    2012-01-01

    Prescriptive Bayesian decision making has reached a high level of maturity and is well-supported algorithmically. However, experimental data shows that real decision makers choose such Bayes-optimal decisions surprisingly infrequently, often making decisions that are badly sub-optimal. So prevalent is such imperfect decision-making that it should be accepted as an inherent feature of real decision makers living within interacting societies. To date such societies have been investigated from an economic and gametheoretic perspective, and even to a degree from a physics perspective. However, lit

  11. Improving scalable video adaptation in a knowledge-based framework

    Lopez Hernandez, Fernando; Nur, Gokce; Dogan, Safak; Arachchi, Hemantha; Mrak, M.; Martinez, Jose Maria; García Santos, Narciso; Kondoz, Ahmet

    2010-01-01

    In a knowledge-based content adaptation framework, video adaptation can be performed in a series of steps, named conversions. The high-level decision phase in such a framework occasionally encounters several feasible parameter values of a specific conversion. This paper proposes to transfer further decisions to a low-level phase that decides which parameters maximise the quality of the adaptation. Particularly when more than one solution are available, an innovative quality measure is used fo...

  12. Adaptation to Climate Change and Climate Variability: Do It Now or Wait and See?

    Narita, Daiju; Quaas, Martin F.

    2012-01-01

    As growing attention is paid to climate change adaptation as an actual policy issue, the significant meaning of climate variability in adaptation decisions is beginning to be recognized. By using a real option framework for adaptation in agricultural production, we shed light on how climate change and climate variability affect individuals' (farmers') investment decisions with regard to adaptation (switching from rainfed to irrigated farming). The option value delays adaptation easily for sev...

  13. Decision time for clinical decision support systems

    O'Sullivan, D.; Fraccaro, P.; Carson, E; Weller, P

    2014-01-01

    Clinical decision support systems are interactive software systems designed to assist clinicians with decision making tasks, such as determining a diagnosis or recommending a treatment for a patient. Clinical decision support systems are a widely researched topic in the Computer Science community but their inner workings are less well understood by and known to clinicians. In this article we provide a brief explanation of clinical decision support systems and provide some examples of real wor...

  14. Adaptive test

    Kjeldsen, Lars Peter; Eriksen, Mette Rose

    2010-01-01

    Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale.......Artikelen er en evaluering af de adaptive tests, som blev indført i folkeskolen. Artiklen sætter særligt fokus på evaluering i folkeskolen, herunder bidrager den med vejledning til evaluering, evalueringsværktøjer og fagspecifkt evalueringsmateriale....

  15. A control-theory model for human decision-making

    Levison, W. H.; Tanner, R. B.

    1971-01-01

    A model for human decision making is an adaptation of an optimal control model for pilot/vehicle systems. The models for decision and control both contain concepts of time delay, observation noise, optimal prediction, and optimal estimation. The decision making model was intended for situations in which the human bases his decision on his estimate of the state of a linear plant. Experiments are described for the following task situations: (a) single decision tasks, (b) two-decision tasks, and (c) simultaneous manual control and decision making. Using fixed values for model parameters, single-task and two-task decision performance can be predicted to within an accuracy of 10 percent. Agreement is less good for the simultaneous decision and control situation.

  16. A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

    Ian Krajbich

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

  17. Decision Making and Cancer

    Reyna, Valerie F.; Nelson, Wendy L.; Han, Paul K.; Pignone, Michael P

    2015-01-01

    We review decision-making along the cancer continuum in the contemporary context of informed and shared decision making, in which patients are encouraged to take a more active role in their health care. We discuss challenges to achieving informed and shared decision making, including cognitive limitations and emotional factors, but argue that understanding the mechanisms of decision making offers hope for improving decision support. Theoretical approaches to decision making that explain cogni...

  18. The Dynamics of Strategic Decision-Making

    Andersen, Torben Juul; Bresser, Rudi K. F.; Hallin, Carina Antonia

    Effective strategy-making in turbulent industries needs current insights that can inform ongoing decisions around adaptive strategic moves. Frontline employees involved in the daily business transactions are the first to see the subtle changes not otherwise observed by top managers. Top managemen....... We present an experiment to investigate these effects and discuss the implications for strategic response capabilities among firms....

  19. Adaptation Laboratory

    Huq, Saleemul

    2011-11-15

    Efforts to help the world's poor will face crises in coming decades as climate change radically alters conditions. Action Research for Community Adapation in Bangladesh (ARCAB) is an action-research programme on responding to climate change impacts through community-based adaptation. Set in Bangladesh at 20 sites that are vulnerable to floods, droughts, cyclones and sea level rise, ARCAB will follow impacts and adaptation as they evolve over half a century or more. National and international 'research partners', collaborating with ten NGO 'action partners' with global reach, seek knowledge and solutions applicable worldwide. After a year setting up ARCAB, we share lessons on the programme's design and move into our first research cycle.

  20. Adaptive ethnography

    Berth, Mette

    2005-01-01

    This paper focuses on the use of an adaptive ethnography when studying such phenomena as young people's use of mobile media in a learning perspective. Mobile media such as PDAs and mobile phones have a number of affordances which make them potential tools for learning. However, before we begin to...... design and develop educational materials for mobile media platforms we must first understand everyday use and behaviour with a medium such as a mobile phone. The paper outlines the research design for a PhD project on mobile learning which focuses on mobile phones as a way to bridge the gap between...... formal and informal learning contexts. The paper also proposes several adaptive methodological techniques for studying young people's interaction with mobiles....

  1. Hedonic "adaptation"

    Paul Rozin

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available People live in a world in which they are surrounded by potential disgust elicitors such as ``used'' chairs, air, silverware, and money as well as excretory activities. People function in this world by ignoring most of these, by active avoidance, reframing, or adaptation. The issue is particularly striking for professions, such as morticians, surgeons, or sanitation workers, in which there is frequent contact with major disgust elicitors. In this study, we study the ``adaptation'' process to dead bodies as disgust elicitors, by measuring specific types of disgust sensitivity in medical students before and after they have spent a few months dissecting a cadaver. Using the Disgust Scale, we find a significant reduction in disgust responses to death and body envelope violation elicitors, but no significant change in any other specific type of disgust. There is a clear reduction in discomfort at touching a cold dead body, but not in touching a human body which is still warm after death.

  2. Adaptable positioner

    This paper describes the circuits and programs in assembly language, developed to control the two DC motors that give mobility to a mechanical arm with two degrees of freedom. As a whole, the system is based in a adaptable regulator designed around a 8 bit microprocessor that, starting from a mode of regulation based in the successive approximation method, evolve to another mode through which, only one approximation is sufficient to get the right position of each motor. (Author) 22 fig. 6 ref

  3. Adaptive positioner

    This paper describes the circuits and programs in assembly language, developed to control the two DC motors that give mobility to a mechanical arm with two degrees of freedom. As a whole, the system is based in a adaptable regulator designed around a 8 bit microprocessor that, starting from a mode of regulation based in the successive approximation method, evolve to another mode through which, only one approximation is sufficient to get the right position of each motor. (Author) 6 refs

  4. Adaptive noise

    Viney, Mark; Reece, Sarah E.

    2013-01-01

    In biology, noise implies error and disorder and is therefore something which organisms may seek to minimize and mitigate against. We argue that such noise can be adaptive. Recent studies have shown that gene expression can be noisy, noise can be genetically controlled, genes and gene networks vary in how noisy they are and noise generates phenotypic differences among genetically identical cells. Such phenotypic differences can have fitness benefits, suggesting that evolution can shape noise ...

  5. Cooperative decision making without facilitator

    Kárný, Miroslav; Kracík, Jan; Guy, Tatiana Valentine

    Saint Petersburg: IFAC, 2007 - ( And rievsky, B.; Fradkov, A.), s. 1-6 [IFAC Workshop "Adaptation and Learning in Control and Signal Processing" /9./. Saint Petersburg (RU), 29.08.2007-31.08.2007] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR 1ET100750401; GA MŠk 2C06001; GA AV ČR 1ET100750404 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : Bayesian distributed decision making * cooperation * learning Subject RIV: BD - Theory of Information http://as.utia.cz/publications/2007/KarKraGuy_07.pdf

  6. Farming System Evolution and Adaptive Capacity: Insights for Adaptation Support

    Jami L. Dixon

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Studies of climate impacts on agriculture and adaptation often provide current or future assessments, ignoring the historical contexts farming systems are situated within. We investigate how historical trends have influenced farming system adaptive capacity in Uganda using data from household surveys, semi-structured interviews, focus-group discussions and observations. By comparing two farming systems, we note three major findings: (1 similar trends in farming system evolution have had differential impacts on the diversity of farming systems; (2 trends have contributed to the erosion of informal social and cultural institutions and an increasing dependence on formal institutions; and (3 trade-offs between components of adaptive capacity are made at the farm-scale, thus influencing farming system adaptive capacity. To identify the actual impacts of future climate change and variability, it is important to recognize the dynamic nature of adaptation. In practice, areas identified for further adaptation support include: shift away from one-size-fits-all approach the identification and integration of appropriate modern farming method; a greater focus on building inclusive formal and informal institutions; and a more nuanced understanding regarding the roles and decision-making processes of influential, but external, actors. More research is needed to understand farm-scale trade-offs and the resulting impacts across spatial and temporal scales.

  7. Project Decision Chain

    Rolstadås, Asbjørn; Pinto, Jeffrey K.; Falster, Peter;

    2015-01-01

    To add value to project performance and help obtain project success, a new framework for decision making in projects is defined. It introduces the project decision chain inspired by the supply chain thinking in the manufacturing sector and uses three types of decisions: authorization, selection......, and plan decision. A primitive decision element is defined where all the three decision types can be accommodated. Each task in the primitive element can in itself contain subtasks that in turn will comprise new primitive elements. The primitive elements are nested together in a project decision chain....

  8. Dutch decision as rooted in Dutch culture: An ethnologic study of the Dutch decision process

    De Bony, Jacqueline

    2005-01-01

    Consensus is a mode of regulation well adapted to globalisation as it provides a means to reach agreements and manage diversity at the same time. However, is it a universal decision mode? This study explores the co-existence of individualism and collectivism in Dutch consensus. A descriptive and interpretive analysis of the Dutch decision process allows to disentangle the mechanism by which individual autonomy and cooperation articulate. This mechanism is assisted by a series of social device...

  9. Passive and active adaptive management: Approaches and an example

    Williams, B.K.

    2011-01-01

    Adaptive management is a framework for resource conservation that promotes iterative learning-based decision making. Yet there remains considerable confusion about what adaptive management entails, and how to actually make resource decisions adaptively. A key but somewhat ambiguous distinction in adaptive management is between active and passive forms of adaptive decision making. The objective of this paper is to illustrate some approaches to active and passive adaptive management with a simple example involving the drawdown of water impoundments on a wildlife refuge. The approaches are illustrated for the drawdown example, and contrasted in terms of objectives, costs, and potential learning rates. Some key challenges to the actual practice of AM are discussed, and tradeoffs between implementation costs and long-term benefits are highlighted. ?? 2010 Elsevier Ltd.

  10. Climate change and adaptation of small-scale cattle and sheep farmers

    Mandleni, B.; Anim, F.D.K.

    2011-01-01

    The main objective of this study was to investigate the factors that affected the decision of small-scale farmers who kept cattle and sheep on whether to adapt or not to climate changes. The Binary Logistic Regression model was used to investigate farmers’ decision. The results implied that a large number of socio-economic variables affected the decision of farmers on adaptation to climate changes. The study concluded that the most significant factors affecting climate change and adaptation w...

  11. Fair adaptation to climate change

    This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

  12. Selecting decision strategies: the differential role of affect

    Scheibehenne, Benjamin; von Helversen, Bettina

    2015-01-01

    Many theories on cognition assume that people adapt their decision strategies depending on the situation they face. To test if and how affect guides the selection of decision strategies, we conducted an online study (N = 166), where different mood states were induced through video clips. Results indicate that mood influenced the use of decision strategies. Negative mood, in particular anger, facilitated the use of non-compensatory strategies, whereas positive mood promoted compensatory decisi...

  13. A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

    Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

    2012-01-01

    Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

  14. Bayesian Adaptive Exploration

    Loredo, T J

    2004-01-01

    I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation--Inference--Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data--measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object--show the approach can significantly improve observational eff...

  15. Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

    Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

    2011-11-15

    Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

  16. Developmental changes in effects of risk and valence on adolescent decision-making

    Wolf, L.K.; Kilford, E. J.; Blakemore, S-J; Wright, N. D.; Dolan, R. J.

    2013-01-01

    Recent research on risky decision-making in adults has shown that both the risk in potential outcomes and their valence (i.e., whether those outcomes involve gains or losses) exert dissociable influences on decisions. We hypothesised that the influences of these two crucial decision variables (risk and valence) on decision-making would vary developmentally during adolescence. We adapted a risk-taking paradigm that provides precise metrics for the impacts of risk and valence. Decision-making i...

  17. Physical culture as a powerful factor facilitating adaptation of foreign students at the university

    Grutsyak N.B; Grutsyak V.І.

    2010-01-01

    The problems of adaptation are considered foreign student in the institutes of higher. Directions of decision of problems of social and individual psychological adaptation of student are rotined. The methods of adaptive physical activity are used. The ways of realization of the adaptation health programs are set for a foreign student. It is suggested to enter preparations of student basic methods of adaptive physical culture in practice. It is recommended to enter an adaptive physical culture...

  18. Adaptive sensor fusion using genetic algorithms

    Past attempts at sensor fusion have used some form of Boolean logic to combine the sensor information. As an alteniative, an adaptive ''fuzzy'' sensor fusion technique is described in this paper. This technique exploits the robust capabilities of fuzzy logic in the decision process as well as the optimization features of the genetic algorithm. This paper presents a brief background on fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms and how they are used in an online implementation of adaptive sensor fusion

  19. Adaptive sensor fusion using genetic algorithms

    Fitzgerald, D.S.; Adams, D.G.

    1994-08-01

    Past attempts at sensor fusion have used some form of Boolean logic to combine the sensor information. As an alteniative, an adaptive ``fuzzy`` sensor fusion technique is described in this paper. This technique exploits the robust capabilities of fuzzy logic in the decision process as well as the optimization features of the genetic algorithm. This paper presents a brief background on fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms and how they are used in an online implementation of adaptive sensor fusion.

  20. Informatics perspectives on decision taking

    Bergstra, J. A.

    2011-01-01

    A decision is an act or event of decision taking. Decision making always includes decision taking, the latter not involving significant exchanges with non-deciding agents. A decision outcome is a piece of storable information constituting the result of a decision. Decision outcomes are typed, for instance: plan, command, assertion, or boolean reply to a question. A decision effect is any consequence of putting a decision outcome into effect. Decision outcomes must be expected by the decider t...

  1. NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

    Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

    2010-01-01

    This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

  2. Bayesian Adaptive Exploration

    Loredo, Thomas J.

    2004-04-01

    I describe a framework for adaptive scientific exploration based on iterating an Observation-Inference-Design cycle that allows adjustment of hypotheses and observing protocols in response to the results of observation on-the-fly, as data are gathered. The framework uses a unified Bayesian methodology for the inference and design stages: Bayesian inference to quantify what we have learned from the available data and predict future data, and Bayesian decision theory to identify which new observations would teach us the most. When the goal of the experiment is simply to make inferences, the framework identifies a computationally efficient iterative ``maximum entropy sampling'' strategy as the optimal strategy in settings where the noise statistics are independent of signal properties. Results of applying the method to two ``toy'' problems with simulated data-measuring the orbit of an extrasolar planet, and locating a hidden one-dimensional object-show the approach can significantly improve observational efficiency in settings that have well-defined nonlinear models. I conclude with a list of open issues that must be addressed to make Bayesian adaptive exploration a practical and reliable tool for optimizing scientific exploration.

  3. Shared decision making

    When facing a decision, your provider will fully explain your options. You can bring friends or family members to your visits to help in the shared decision making process. You will learn about the risks and ...

  4. Adaptive management

    Rist, Lucy; Campbell, Bruce Morgan; Frost, Peter

    2013-01-01

    in scientific articles, policy documents and management plans, but both understanding and application of the concept is mixed. This paper reviews recent literature from conservation and natural resource management journals to assess diversity in how the term is used, highlight ambiguities and consider how......Adaptive management (AM) emerged in the literature in the mid-1970s in response both to a realization of the extent of uncertainty involved in management, and a frustration with attempts to use modelling to integrate knowledge and make predictions. The term has since become increasingly widely used...... the concept might be further assessed. AM is currently being used to describe many different management contexts, scales and locations. Few authors define the term explicitly or describe how it offers a means to improve management outcomes in their specific management context. Many do not adhere to the idea...

  5. Categorization = Decision Making + Generalization

    Seger, Carol A; Peterson, Erik J.

    2013-01-01

    We rarely, if ever, repeatedly encounter exactly the same situation. This makes generalization crucial for real world decision making. We argue that categorization, the study of generalizable representations, is a type of decision making, and that categorization learning research would benefit from approaches developed to study the neuroscience of decision making. Similarly, methods developed to examine generalization and learning within the field of categorization may enhance decision making...

  6. 影响我国个人捐赠者捐赠决策过程的心理机制--基于情感适应理论的实证研究%The Mechanism Affecting Donation Decision Making Process:An Emotional Adaptation Perspective

    蒋晶

    2014-01-01

    Based on the emotion adaptation theory and the model of helping behavior, this study proposes a model of do-nation decision making process and tests it by a nation-wide sample of 1853 people. The results reveal that donation de-cision making process is a dynamic mechanism in which perceived organization image and advertising appeals appraisals produce emotional responses among the potential donors, emotions subsequently affect donation intention, however, via the mediating role of donation motivation. Besides, previous donation experience is found to mediatedly moderate the de-cision process by an interation effect with emotions on motivation. Namely, when the potential donor has more previous donation experiences, the effect of emotions on motivation and intension attenuates, visa versa. Theoretial and manageri-al contributions are addressed.%基于帮助决策模型和情感适应理论,本研究建立了我国个人捐赠者的捐赠决策模型,并通过发放全国性问卷进行数据搜集,验证了刺激→情感→动机→意向这一动态心理机制。研究结果显示我国个人捐赠行为是一个动态的心理决策过程,其中由公益组织传递的组织形象和广告诉求经过了潜在捐赠人的评价而产生了不同的情感状态,该情感状态诱发利己动机或者利他动机继而影响其捐赠意愿。此外,个人捐赠经历与情感状态交互作用于动机并对捐赠意愿产生影响,即在个人捐赠经历多的情况下,由感知组织形象和广告诉求评价所引发的情感对于捐赠意愿的影响较小;而个人捐赠经历少的情况下,该情感对捐赠意愿的影响较大。

  7. Implications of the KONVERGENCE Model for Difficult Cleanup Decisions

    Piet, Steven James; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon

    2002-08-04

    Abstract—Some cleanup decisions, such as cleanup of intractable contaminated sites or disposal of spent nuclear fuel, have proven difficult to make. Such decisions face high resistance to agreement from stakeholders possibly because they do not trust the decision makers, view the consequences of being wrong as too high, etc. Our project’s goal is to improve sciencebased cleanup decision-making. This includes diagnosing intractable situations, as a step to identifying a path toward sustainable solutions. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions,1 and the overall framework and process steps.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. For intractable cases, serious consideration of the adaptable class of alternatives is warranted – if properly implemented and packaged.

  8. Marketing Decisions and Strategies

    Kuada, John Ernest

    The marketing literature generally assumes that managers and customers always make rational (reasonable and logical) decisions. In real life, however, decision making process is hardly rational and straight forward. Managers and customers normally make decisions “in-action” – i.e. as they grapple...

  9. The integrated decision support system

    This paper has introduced development history, present situation, popular decision support technology of decision support system, and discussed the integrated decision support system form with technical foundation. (authors)

  10. Alara and decision analysis

    In applying ALARA somebody has to determine what is reasonable. A decision has to be made. Decision Analysis is a procedure for structuring decision problems, and therefore it might be expected to be of use in the application of the ALARA principle. This paper explores the contribution that Decision Analysis may make in this context, particularly discussing the application of multi-attribute value theory. An example of using the theory on a problem of radioactive waste disposal is given, and the potential of an increased use of Decision Analysis in making the ALARA principle work, is discussed