The adaptive use of recognition in group decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kämmer, Juliane E; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang; Reimer, Torsten; Schermuly, Carsten C

2014-06-01

Applying the framework of ecological rationality, the authors studied the adaptivity of group decision making. In detail, they investigated whether groups apply decision strategies conditional on their composition in terms of task-relevant features. The authors focused on the recognition heuristic, so the task-relevant features were the validity of the group members' recognition and knowledge, which influenced the potential performance of group strategies. Forty-three three-member groups performed an inference task in which they had to infer which of two German companies had the higher market capitalization. Results based on the choice data support the hypothesis that groups adaptively apply the strategy that leads to the highest theoretically achievable performance. Time constraints had no effect on strategy use but did have an effect on the proportions of different types of arguments. Possible mechanisms underlying the adaptive use of recognition in group decision making are discussed. © 2014 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Engaging stakeholders for adaptive management using structured decision analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Irwin, Elise R.; Kathryn, D.; Kennedy, Mickett

2009-01-01

Adaptive management is different from other types of management in that it includes all stakeholders (versus only policy makers) in the process, uses resource optimization techniques to evaluate competing objectives, and recognizes and attempts to reduce uncertainty inherent in natural resource systems. Management actions are negotiated by stakeholders, monitored results are compared to predictions of how the system should respond, and management strategies are adjusted in a “monitor-compare-adjust” iterative routine. Many adaptive management projects fail because of the lack of stakeholder identification, engagement, and continued involvement. Primary reasons for this vary but are usually related to either stakeholders not having ownership (or representation) in decision processes or disenfranchisement of stakeholders after adaptive management begins. We present an example in which stakeholders participated fully in adaptive management of a southeastern regulated river. Structured decision analysis was used to define management objectives and stakeholder values and to determine initial flow prescriptions. The process was transparent, and the visual nature of the modeling software allowed stakeholders to see how their interests and values were represented in the decision process. The development of a stakeholder governance structure and communication mechanism has been critical to the success of the project.

Adaptation research meets adaptation decision-making. Second Nordic international conference on climate change adaption. Programme and abstracts

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

NONE

2012-07-01

Nearly two years have passed since a small team of researchers began a new chapter in Nordic co-operation on climate change by organising a conference in Stockholm, Sweden. The conference, entitled Climate Adaptation in the Nordic Countries - Science, Practice, Policy, co-ordinated by the Stockholm Environment Institute and hosted by Stockholm University in November 2010, was the first of its kind in the Nordic region. Since the European Commission adopted its White Paper on adaptation to climate change in 2009, many of that document's 33 actions have been implemented, a climate change adaptation platform, Climate-ADAPT, was launched at the European Environment Agency in March this year, and just a week before this conference the Commission concluded a public consultation of stakeholders and experts in member states designed to feed into the preparation of a European Union adaptation strategy. The 2012 conference therefore presents an ideal opportunity to take stock of ongoing efforts and to consider how adaptation research efforts are keeping pace with policy demands as well as the needs of public and private decision-makers operating at a range of scales. It brings together researchers, public and private decision- makers, as well as those who plan and realize adaptation plans. Session themes include, among others: national and local adaptation plans, climate portals and climate services, adaptation in developing countries, legal aspects of adaptation, economic appraisal of adaptation, analysing and handling risk and uncertainty, urban planning and scenarios. The contributors have very diverse backgrounds, ranging from biosciences to social sciences, economics to geo-sciences, and engineering to architecture. Interest in climate change adaptation in the Nordic region is clearly high, with over 70% of our participants drawn from the five Nordic countries, but the conference has also managed to attract participation from further afield, with registrations

Sequential decision making in computational sustainability via adaptive submodularity

Science.gov (United States)

Krause, Andreas; Golovin, Daniel; Converse, Sarah J.

2015-01-01

Many problems in computational sustainability require making a sequence of decisions in complex, uncertain environments. Such problems are generally notoriously difficult. In this article, we review the recently discovered notion of adaptive submodularity, an intuitive diminishing returns condition that generalizes the classical notion of submodular set functions to sequential decision problems. Problems exhibiting the adaptive submodularity property can be efficiently and provably near-optimally solved using simple myopic policies. We illustrate this concept in several case studies of interest in computational sustainability: First, we demonstrate how it can be used to efficiently plan for resolving uncertainty in adaptive management scenarios. Secondly, we show how it applies to dynamic conservation planning for protecting endangered species, a case study carried out in collaboration with the US Geological Survey and the US Fish and Wildlife Service.

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rasoul Yousefpour

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future bioclimatic and socioeconomic conditions, and the ways decisions are evaluated and made. We investigate the adaptive management process and develop a framework including these three aspects, thus providing a structured way to analyze the challenges and opportunities of managing forests in the face of climate change. We apply the framework for a range of case studies that differ in the way climate and its impacts are projected to change, the available management options, and how decision makers develop, update, and use their beliefs about climate change scenarios to select among adaptation options, each being optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1 take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2 evaluate alternative management decisions: the "no-change," the "reactive," the "trend-adaptive," and the "forward-looking adaptive" decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying knowledge, belief, and information. Finally, our proposed framework for identifying adaptation strategies provides solutions for enhancing forest structure and diversity, biomass and timber production, and reducing climate change-induced damages. They are spatially heterogeneous, reflecting the diversity in growing conditions and socioeconomic settings within Europe.

Fusion Sub-System Design From an Integrated Command, Decision Support and ISR Perspective

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Senglaub, Michael

2006-01-01

.... It is a hybridization of formal and temporal concept reasoning, Peircean reasoning with an instantiation of Mills canons, Modal logic and coupled to an architecture based on Hawkins model of the neocortex...

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Byron K Williams

Full Text Available Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both. There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and

Frequencies of decision making and monitoring in adaptive resource management

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Byron K.; Johnson, Fred A.

2017-01-01

Adaptive management involves learning-oriented decision making in the presence of uncertainty about the responses of a resource system to management. It is implemented through an iterative sequence of decision making, monitoring and assessment of system responses, and incorporating what is learned into future decision making. Decision making at each point is informed by a value or objective function, for example total harvest anticipated over some time frame. The value function expresses the value associated with decisions, and it is influenced by system status as updated through monitoring. Often, decision making follows shortly after a monitoring event. However, it is certainly possible for the cadence of decision making to differ from that of monitoring. In this paper we consider different combinations of annual and biennial decision making, along with annual and biennial monitoring. With biennial decision making decisions are changed only every other year; with biennial monitoring field data are collected only every other year. Different cadences of decision making combine with annual and biennial monitoring to define 4 scenarios. Under each scenario we describe optimal valuations for active and passive adaptive decision making. We highlight patterns in valuation among scenarios, depending on the occurrence of monitoring and decision making events. Differences between years are tied to the fact that every other year a new decision can be made no matter what the scenario, and state information is available to inform that decision. In the subsequent year, however, in 3 of the 4 scenarios either a decision is repeated or monitoring does not occur (or both). There are substantive differences in optimal values among the scenarios, as well as the optimal policies producing those values. Especially noteworthy is the influence of monitoring cadence on valuation in some years. We highlight patterns in policy and valuation among the scenarios, and discuss management

Adaptation pathways: ecoregion and land ownership influences on climate adaptation decision-making in forest management

Science.gov (United States)

Todd A. Ontl; Chris Swanston; Leslie A. Brandt; Patricia R. Butler; Anthony W. D’Amato; Stephen D. Handler; Maria K. Janowiak; P. Danielle Shannon

2018-01-01

Climate adaptation planning and implementation are likely to increase rapidly within the forest sector not only as climate continues to change but also as we intentionally learn from real-world examples. We sought to better understand how adaptation is being incorporated in land management decision-making across diverse land ownership types in the Midwest by evaluating...

51 climate change perception, awareness and adaptation decision ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2 Environment Department, University of York, York, UK. Corresponding author: ... The perception of climate change and adaptation decision of forest .... well as the broader characteristics of the production system and ... mangrove forest, Guinea savanna, montane forest ...... forecastsand regional climate-risk management.

Computerized Adaptive Test vs. decision trees: Development of a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Delgado-Gomez, D; Baca-Garcia, E; Aguado, D; Courtet, P; Lopez-Castroman, J

2016-12-01

Several Computerized Adaptive Tests (CATs) have been proposed to facilitate assessments in mental health. These tests are built in a standard way, disregarding useful and usually available information not included in the assessment scales that could increase the precision and utility of CATs, such as the history of suicide attempts. Using the items of a previously developed scale for suicidal risk, we compared the performance of a standard CAT and a decision tree in a support decision system to identify suicidal behavior. We included the history of past suicide attempts as a class for the separation of patients in the decision tree. The decision tree needed an average of four items to achieve a similar accuracy than a standard CAT with nine items. The accuracy of the decision tree, obtained after 25 cross-validations, was 81.4%. A shortened test adapted for the separation of suicidal and non-suicidal patients was developed. CATs can be very useful tools for the assessment of suicidal risk. However, standard CATs do not use all the information that is available. A decision tree can improve the precision of the assessment since they are constructed using a priori information. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

A Plastic Cortico-Striatal Circuit Model of Adaptation in Perceptual Decision

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Pao-Yueh eHsiao

2013-12-01

Full Text Available The ability to optimize decisions and adapt them to changing environments is a crucial brain function that increase survivability. Although much has been learned about the neuronal activity in various brain regions that are associated with decision making, and about how the nervous systems may learn to achieve optimization, the underlying neuronal mechanisms of how the nervous systems optimize decision strategies with preference given to speed or accuracy, and how the systems adapt to changes in the environment, remain unclear. Based on extensive empirical observations, we addressed the question by extending a previously described cortico-basal ganglia circuit model of perceptual decisions with the inclusion of a dynamic dopamine (DA system that modulates spike-timing dependent plasticity. We found that, once an optimal model setting that maximized the reward rate was selected, the same setting automatically optimized decisions across different task environments through dynamic balancing between the facilitating and depressing components of the DA dynamics. Interestingly, other model parameters were also optimal if we considered the reward rate that was weighted by the subject’s preferences for speed or accuracy. Specifically, the circuit model favored speed if we increased the phasic DA response to the reward prediction error, whereas the model favored accuracy if we reduced the tonic DA activity or the phasic DA responses to the estimated reward probability. The proposed model provides insight into the roles of different components of DA responses in decision adaptation and optimization in a changing environment.

A decision analysis approach to climate adaptation: comparing multiple pathways for multi-decadal decision making

Science.gov (United States)

Lin, B. B.; Little, L.

2013-12-01

Policy planners around the world are required to consider the implications of adapting to climatic change across spatial contexts and decadal timeframes. However, local level information for planning is often poorly defined, even though climate adaptation decision-making is made at this scale. This is especially true when considering sea level rise and coastal impacts of climate change. We present a simple approach using sea level rise simulations paired with adaptation scenarios to assess a range of adaptation options available to local councils dealing with issues of beach recession under present and future sea level rise and storm surge. Erosion and beach recession pose a large socioeconomic risk to coastal communities because of the loss of key coastal infrastructure. We examine the well-known adaptation technique of beach nourishment and assess various timings and amounts of beach nourishment at decadal time spans in relation to beach recession impacts. The objective was to identify an adaptation strategy that would allow for a low frequency of management interventions, the maintenance of beach width, and the ability to minimize variation in beach width over the 2010 to 2100 simulation period. 1000 replications of each adaptation option were produced against the 90 year simulation in order to model the ability each adaptation option to achieve the three key objectives. Three sets of adaptation scenarios were identified. Within each scenario, a number of adaptation options were tested. The three scenarios were: 1) Fixed periodic beach replenishment of specific amounts at 20 and 50 year intervals, 2) Beach replenishment to the initial beach width based on trigger levels of recession (5m, 10m, 20m), and 3) Fixed period beach replenishment of a variable amount at decadal intervals (every 10, 20, 30, 40, 50 years). For each adaptation option, we show the effectiveness of each beach replenishment scenario to maintain beach width and consider the implications of more

Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qianqian Zhou

2012-10-15

adaptation actions (e.g. formulation of an appropriate service level). Furthermore, the risk-based economic approach enables an assessment and comparison of the expected benefits (due to saved flood damage) and corresponding costs of different adaptation measures. This gives more detailed insights into the pros and cons of different adaptation options, thus helping to optimize the efficiency and performance of urban drainage adaptation design. The thesis investigates impacts of uncertainties associated with not only the hydrological conditions (e.g. design intensities, climate change impacts), but also the present and future vulnerability conditions (e.g. impacts on assets). This enables a complete assessment of effects of various uncertainties in the climate change assessment process. Furthermore, in the study, two types of uncertainties are distinguished: 1) the overall uncertainty of an individual adaptation scenario, which may influence the choice of action; and 2) the marginal uncertainty between adaptation alternatives in order for a direct comparison of their efficiency once a decision of action is taken. Based on assessments of the two types of uncertainties, it is found that although climate change adaptation assessment is often associated with large uncertainties, it is still possible to identify robust adaptation options based on calculated marginal uncertainties. This is because that the uncertainties related to costing of floods and magnitude of climate impacts will be levelled out when comparing adaptation alternatives. In addition, a sensitivity analysis is also incorporated in the framework to assess the relative contribution of inherent uncertainties in the assessment. This allows an identification of critical/important uncertainties that matter for decision making and also provides a guide for further efforts to improve decision making in relation to climate change adaptation. Traditionally, assessment of climate change adaptation is based on conventional

Revisiting the generation and interpretation of climate models experiments for adaptation decision-making (Invited)

Science.gov (United States)

Ranger, N.; Millner, A.; Niehoerster, F.

2010-12-01

Traditionally, climate change risk assessments have taken a roughly four-stage linear ‘chain’ of moving from socioeconomic projections, to climate projections, to primary impacts and then finally onto economic and social impact assessment. Adaptation decisions are then made on the basis of these outputs. The escalation of uncertainty through this chain is well known; resulting in an ‘explosion’ of uncertainties in the final risk and adaptation assessment. The space of plausible future risk scenarios is growing ever wider with the application of new techniques which aim to explore uncertainty ever more deeply; such as those used in the recent ‘probabilistic’ UK Climate Projections 2009, and the stochastic integrated assessment models, for example PAGE2002. This explosion of uncertainty can make decision-making problematic, particularly given that the uncertainty information communicated can not be treated as strictly probabilistic and therefore, is not an easy fit with standard decision-making under uncertainty approaches. Additional problems can arise from the fact that the uncertainty estimated for different components of the ‘chain’ is rarely directly comparable or combinable. Here, we explore the challenges and limitations of using current projections for adaptation decision-making. We report the findings of a recent report completed for the UK Adaptation Sub-Committee on approaches to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today. To illustrate these approaches, we take a number of illustrative case studies, including a case of adaptation to hurricane risk on the US Gulf Coast. This is a particularly interesting case as it involves urgent adaptation of long-lived infrastructure but requires interpreting highly uncertain climate change science and modelling; i.e. projections of Atlantic basin hurricane activity. An approach we outline is reversing the linear chain of assessments to put the economics and decision

Evaluating a multispecies adaptive management framework: Must uncertainty impede effective decision-making?

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, David R.; McGowan, Conor P.; Daily, Jonathan P.; Nichols, James D.; Sweka, John A.; Lyons, James E.

2013-01-01

Application of adaptive management to complex natural resource systems requires careful evaluation to ensure that the process leads to improved decision-making. As part of that evaluation, adaptive policies can be compared with alternative nonadaptive management scenarios. Also, the value of reducing structural (ecological) uncertainty to achieving management objectives can be quantified.A multispecies adaptive management framework was recently adopted by the Atlantic States Marine Fisheries Commission for sustainable harvest of Delaware Bay horseshoe crabs Limulus polyphemus, while maintaining adequate stopover habitat for migrating red knots Calidris canutus rufa, the focal shorebird species. The predictive model set encompassed the structural uncertainty in the relationships between horseshoe crab spawning, red knot weight gain and red knot vital rates. Stochastic dynamic programming was used to generate a state-dependent strategy for harvest decisions given that uncertainty. In this paper, we employed a management strategy evaluation approach to evaluate the performance of this adaptive management framework. Active adaptive management was used by including model weights as state variables in the optimization and reducing structural uncertainty by model weight updating.We found that the value of information for reducing structural uncertainty is expected to be low, because the uncertainty does not appear to impede effective management. Harvest policy responded to abundance levels of both species regardless of uncertainty in the specific relationship that generated those abundances. Thus, the expected horseshoe crab harvest and red knot abundance were similar when the population generating model was uncertain or known, and harvest policy was robust to structural uncertainty as specified.Synthesis and applications. The combination of management strategy evaluation with state-dependent strategies from stochastic dynamic programming was an informative approach to

Integrating climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making - Key challenges and opportunities

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olhoff, Anne; Olsen, Karen Holm

2011-01-01

management framework is used as the basis for identifying key challenges and opportunities to enhance the integration of climate change adaptation in energy planning and decision-making. Given its importance for raising awareness and for stimulating action by planners and decision-makers, emphasis is placed......Energy systems are significantly vulnerable to current climate variability and extreme events. As climate change becomes more pronounced, the risks and vulnerabilities will be exacerbated. To date, energy sector adaptation issues have received very limited attention. In this paper, a climate risk...... barriers to integration of climate risks and adaptive responses in energy planning and decision making. Both detailed assessments of the costs and benefits of integrating adaptation measures and rougher ‘order of magnitude’ estimates would enhance awareness raising and momentum for action....

Adaptable history biases in human perceptual decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Abrahamyan, Arman; Silva, Laura Luz; Dakin, Steven C; Carandini, Matteo; Gardner, Justin L

2016-06-21

When making choices under conditions of perceptual uncertainty, past experience can play a vital role. However, it can also lead to biases that worsen decisions. Consistent with previous observations, we found that human choices are influenced by the success or failure of past choices even in a standard two-alternative detection task, where choice history is irrelevant. The typical bias was one that made the subject switch choices after a failure. These choice history biases led to poorer performance and were similar for observers in different countries. They were well captured by a simple logistic regression model that had been previously applied to describe psychophysical performance in mice. Such irrational biases seem at odds with the principles of reinforcement learning, which would predict exquisite adaptability to choice history. We therefore asked whether subjects could adapt their irrational biases following changes in trial order statistics. Adaptability was strong in the direction that confirmed a subject's default biases, but weaker in the opposite direction, so that existing biases could not be eradicated. We conclude that humans can adapt choice history biases, but cannot easily overcome existing biases even if irrational in the current context: adaptation is more sensitive to confirmatory than contradictory statistics.

Characterizing Uncertainty for Regional Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Decisions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Unwin, Stephen D.; Moss, Richard H.; Rice, Jennie S.; Scott, Michael J.

2011-09-30

This white paper describes the results of new research to develop an uncertainty characterization process to help address the challenges of regional climate change mitigation and adaptation decisions.

Adaptive Decision-Making Scheme for Cognitive Radio Networks

KAUST Repository

Alqerm, Ismail

2014-05-01

Radio resource management becomes an important aspect of the current wireless networks because of spectrum scarcity and applications heterogeneity. Cognitive radio is a potential candidate for resource management because of its capability to satisfy the growing wireless demand and improve network efficiency. Decision-making is the main function of the radio resources management process as it determines the radio parameters that control the use of these resources. In this paper, we propose an adaptive decision-making scheme (ADMS) for radio resources management of different types of network applications including: power consuming, emergency, multimedia, and spectrum sharing. ADMS exploits genetic algorithm (GA) as an optimization tool for decision-making. It consists of the several objective functions for the decision-making process such as minimizing power consumption, packet error rate (PER), delay, and interference. On the other hand, maximizing throughput and spectral efficiency. Simulation results and test bed evaluation demonstrate ADMS functionality and efficiency.

Urban drainage design and climate change adaptation decision making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian

response impacts in the context of hydrological extremes are considered while the added intangible values (e.g. recreational amenities due to a nice blue-green neighbourhood) of adaptation options are often ignored or underestimated. In order to facilitate the development and implementation of water...... the benefits of provision of positive environmental values and the preservation of water resources. It is found that neglecting intangible values in climate adaptation assessment can easily bias the decision making; the reframed approach hence provide an important tool for assessment of additional benefits...... and costs of such innovative solutions. The thesis points towards an integrated framework for urban drainage adaptation design considering climate change effects and adaptation benefits and costs. The case studies show how the proposed framework can be utilized to manage the anticipated climate change risks...

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2017-01-01

optimal for a certain climate change scenario. We describe four stylized types of decision-making processes that differ in how they (1) take into account uncertainty and new information on the state and development of the climate and (2) evaluate alternative management decisions: the “no......-change,” the “reactive,” the “trend-adaptive,” and the “forward-looking adaptive” decision-making types. Accordingly, we evaluate the experiences with alternative management strategies and recent publications on using Bayesian optimization methods that account for different simulated learning schemes based on varying......Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future...

Foundations for Reasoning in Cognition-Based Computational Representations of Human Decision Making; TOPICAL

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

SENGLAUB, MICHAEL E.; HARRIS, DAVID L.; RAYBOURN, ELAINE M.

2001-01-01

In exploring the question of how humans reason in ambiguous situations or in the absence of complete information, we stumbled onto a body of knowledge that addresses issues beyond the original scope of our effort. We have begun to understand the importance that philosophy, in particular the work of C. S. Peirce, plays in developing models of human cognition and of information theory in general. We have a foundation that can serve as a basis for further studies in cognition and decision making. Peircean philosophy provides a foundation for understanding human reasoning and capturing behavioral characteristics of decision makers due to cultural, physiological, and psychological effects. The present paper describes this philosophical approach to understanding the underpinnings of human reasoning. We present the work of C. S. Peirce, and define sets of fundamental reasoning behavior that would be captured in the mathematical constructs of these newer technologies and would be able to interact in an agent type framework. Further, we propose the adoption of a hybrid reasoning model based on his work for future computational representations or emulations of human cognition

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A. DeCaro

2017-03-01

Full Text Available Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance systems adapt. We focus primarily on the interplay between key decision makers in society and legal systems. We argue that adaptive governance must overcome three cooperative dilemmas to facilitate adaptation: (1 encouraging collaborative problem solving, (2 garnering social acceptance and commitment, and (3 cultivating a culture of trust and tolerance for change and uncertainty. However, to do so governance systems must cope with biases in people's decision making that cloud their judgment and create conflict. These systems must also satisfy people's fundamental needs for self-determination, fairness, and security, ensuring that changes to environmental governance are perceived as legitimate, trustworthy, and acceptable. We discuss the implications of these principles for common governance solutions (e.g., public participation, enforcement and conclude with methodological recommendations. We outline how scholars can investigate the social cognitive principles involved in cases of adaptive governance.

Modelling of adaptation to climate change and decision-makers behaviours for the Veluwe forest area in the Netherlands

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Didion, Markus; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl

2015-01-01

We apply Bayesian updating theory to model how decision-makers may gradually learn about climate change and make use of this information in making adaptive forest management decisions. We develop modelling steps to i) simulate observation of a multi-dimensional climate system, ii) apply updating...... production as a measure of management performance. The results illustrate the benefits of updating beliefs to eventually utilize the positive effects and limit negative impacts of climate change on forest biomass production. We find that adaptive decision-making results in switching decisions over time...... rules for beliefs about climate trends, iii) evaluate the performance of adaptive strategies, and iv) apply (i)–(iii) at the local and forest landscape scale to find and compare individual versus joint adaptive decisions. We search for optimal forest management decisions maximizing total biomass...

Some Peircean approaches to organizational communication. Formal and informal relations in a museum

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carlos González Pérez

2014-11-01

Full Text Available The main objectives of this work point to an analysis of internal communication processes of a natural science museum of the city of La Plata (Buenos Aires province to explain the relationship between the formal and informal instances from some approaches to the Peircean semiotics perspective. Other experiences are also taken into account in order to consider different ways of museum´s materialization. We believe that the contribution of this semiotic view is enriching because of its triadic sign scheme and because it allows to regard nonlinear complex processes related to the cultural aspects of museums, determined by a given historical moment. The research in the theoretical directions of the authors who are included in this perspective, enables us to approach the complexity of communication processes, given that all communication is done through signs, and signs can be interpreted in one or another way and can grow and generate a more developed set of signs. We resort to specific operations of visual image semiotics to analyze the signaling in museums, and to specific operations of symbolic semiotics to analyze the discourse of interviews. Through these operations we can achieve explanations about what kind of valuation does the museum´s stuff perform about the formal communication processes and also as to the informal spaces which complement them. We can also state that some problems in the organizational structure must be resolved (as an important segmentation identified in the named museum in order to implement a participative communication model. We identify some aspects related to extension strategies, to the studies of public, and to the relationship that the museum at study has with Argentine aboriginal communities, and likewise aspects that the organization values in the present and wants to project into the future.

Fuzzy Multicriteria Decision Analysis for Adaptive Watershed Management

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, N.

2006-12-01

The dramatic changes of societal complexity due to intensive interactions among agricultural, industrial, and municipal sectors have resulted in acute issues of water resources redistribution and water quality management in many river basins. Given the fact that integrated watershed management is more a political and societal than a technical challenge, there is a need for developing a compelling method leading to justify a water-based land use program in some critical regions. Adaptive watershed management is viewed as an indispensable tool nowadays for providing step-wise constructive decision support that is concerned with all related aspects of the water consumption cycle and those facilities affecting water quality and quantity temporally and spatially. Yet the greatest challenge that decision makers face today is to consider how to leverage ambiguity, paradox, and uncertainty to their competitive advantage of management policy quantitatively. This paper explores a fuzzy multicriteria evaluation method for water resources redistribution and subsequent water quality management with respect to a multipurpose channel-reservoir system--the Tseng- Wen River Basin, South Taiwan. Four fuzzy operators tailored for this fuzzy multicriteria decision analysis depict greater flexibility in representing the complexity of various possible trade-offs among management alternatives constrained by physical, economic, and technical factors essential for adaptive watershed management. The management strategies derived may enable decision makers to integrate a vast number of internal weirs, water intakes, reservoirs, drainage ditches, transfer pipelines, and wastewater treatment facilities within the basin and bring up the permitting issue for transboundary diversion from a neighboring river basin. Experience gained indicates that the use of different types of fuzzy operators is highly instructive, which also provide unique guidance collectively for achieving the overarching goals

Adapting Scott and Bruce's General Decision-Making Style Inventory to Patient Decision Making in Provider Choice.

Science.gov (United States)

Fischer, Sophia; Soyez, Katja; Gurtner, Sebastian

2015-05-01

Research testing the concept of decision-making styles in specific contexts such as health care-related choices is missing. Therefore, we examine the contextuality of Scott and Bruce's (1995) General Decision-Making Style Inventory with respect to patient choice situations. Scott and Bruce's scale was adapted for use as a patient decision-making style inventory. In total, 388 German patients who underwent elective joint surgery responded to a questionnaire about their provider choice. Confirmatory factor analyses within 2 independent samples assessed factorial structure, reliability, and validity of the scale. The final 4-dimensional, 13-item patient decision-making style inventory showed satisfactory psychometric properties. Data analyses supported reliability and construct validity. Besides the intuitive, dependent, and avoidant style, a new subdimension, called "comparative" decision-making style, emerged that originated from the rational dimension of the general model. This research provides evidence for the contextuality of decision-making style to specific choice situations. Using a limited set of indicators, this report proposes the patient decision-making style inventory as valid and feasible tool to assess patients' decision propensities. © The Author(s) 2015.

Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings.

Science.gov (United States)

Poulin, Paule; Austen, Lea; Scott, Catherine M; Poulin, Michelle; Gall, Nadine; Seidel, Judy; Lafrenière, René

2013-01-01

Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA) reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada), for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1) development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2) education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3) evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4) joint evaluation via retreats, 5) synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6) evaluation of the adaptation process. Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence-informed recommendations for introducing new health technologies. We encourage others to use this framework for program adaptation and to report their experiences.

Integrated Decision Support for Global Environmental Change Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, S.; Cantrell, S.; Higgins, G. J.; Marshall, J.; VanWijngaarden, F.

2011-12-01

Environmental changes are happening now that has caused concern in many parts of the world; particularly vulnerable are the countries and communities with limited resources and with natural environments that are more susceptible to climate change impacts. Global leaders are concerned about the observed phenomena and events such as Amazon deforestation, shifting monsoon patterns affecting agriculture in the mountain slopes of Peru, floods in Pakistan, water shortages in Middle East, droughts impacting water supplies and wildlife migration in Africa, and sea level rise impacts on low lying coastal communities in Bangladesh. These environmental changes are likely to get exacerbated as the temperatures rise, the weather and climate patterns change, and sea level rise continues. Large populations and billions of dollars of infrastructure could be affected. At Northrop Grumman, we have developed an integrated decision support framework for providing necessary information to stakeholders and planners to adapt to the impacts of climate variability and change at the regional and local levels. This integrated approach takes into account assimilation and exploitation of large and disparate weather and climate data sets, regional downscaling (dynamic and statistical), uncertainty quantification and reduction, and a synthesis of scientific data with demographic and economic data to generate actionable information for the stakeholders and decision makers. Utilizing a flexible service oriented architecture and state-of-the-art visualization techniques, this information can be delivered via tailored GIS portals to meet diverse set of user needs and expectations. This integrated approach can be applied to regional and local risk assessments, predictions and decadal projections, and proactive adaptation planning for vulnerable communities. In this paper we will describe this comprehensive decision support approach with selected applications and case studies to illustrate how this

2D/3D video content adaptation decision engine based on content classification and user assessment

Science.gov (United States)

Fernandes, Rui; Andrade, M. T.

2017-07-01

Multimedia adaptation depends on several factors, such as the content itself, the consumption device and its characteristics, the transport and access networks and the user. An adaptation decision engine, in order to provide the best possible Quality of Experience to a user, needs to have information about all variables that may influence its decision. For the aforementioned factors, we implement content classification, define device classes, consider limited bandwidth scenarios and categorize user preferences based on a subjective quality evaluation test. The results of these actions generate vital information to pass to the adaptation decision engine so that its operation may provide the indication of the most suitable adaptation to perform that delivers the best possible outcome for the user under the existing constraints.

Introduction of new technologies and decision making processes: a framework to adapt a Local Health Technology Decision Support Program for other local settings

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Poulin P

2013-11-01

Full Text Available Paule Poulin,1 Lea Austen,1 Catherine M Scott,2 Michelle Poulin,1 Nadine Gall,2 Judy Seidel,3 René Lafrenière1 1Department of Surgery, 2Knowledge Management, 3Public Health Innovation and Decision Support, Alberta Health Services, Calgary, AB, Canada Purpose: Introducing new health technologies, including medical devices, into a local setting in a safe, effective, and transparent manner is a complex process, involving many disciplines and players within an organization. Decision making should be systematic, consistent, and transparent. It should involve translating and integrating scientific evidence, such as health technology assessment (HTA reports, with context-sensitive evidence to develop recommendations on whether and under what conditions a new technology will be introduced. However, the development of a program to support such decision making can require considerable time and resources. An alternative is to adapt a preexisting program to the new setting. Materials and methods: We describe a framework for adapting the Local HTA Decision Support Program, originally developed by the Department of Surgery and Surgical Services (Calgary, AB, Canada, for use by other departments. The framework consists of six steps: 1 development of a program review and adaptation manual, 2 education and readiness assessment of interested departments, 3 evaluation of the program by individual departments, 4 joint evaluation via retreats, 5 synthesis of feedback and program revision, and 6 evaluation of the adaptation process. Results: Nine departments revised the Local HTA Decision Support Program and expressed strong satisfaction with the adaptation process. Key elements for success were identified. Conclusion: Adaptation of a preexisting program may reduce duplication of effort, save resources, raise the health care providers' awareness of HTA, and foster constructive stakeholder engagement, which enhances the legitimacy of evidence

On the Road to Holistic Decision Making in Adaptive Security

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahsa Emami-Taba

2013-08-01

Full Text Available Security is a critical concern in today's software systems. Besides the interconnectivity and dynamic nature of network systems, the increasing complexity in modern software systems amplifies the complexity of IT security. This fact leaves attackers one step ahead in exploiting vulnerabilities and introducing new cyberattacks. The demand for new methodologies in addressing cybersecurity is emphasized by both private and national corporations. A practical solution to dynamically manage the high complexity of IT security is adaptive security, which facilitates analysis of the system's behaviour and hence the prevention of malicious attacks in complex systems. Systems that feature adaptive security detect and mitigate security threats at runtime with little or no administrator involvement. In these systems, decisions at runtime are balanced according to quality and performance goals. This article describes the necessity of holistic decision making in such systems and paves the road to future research.

A framework for modeling adaptive forest management and decision making under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Jacobsen, Jette Bredahl; Thorsen, Bo Jellesmark; Meilby, Henrik; Lexer, Manfred J.; Lindner, Marcus; Bugmann, Harald; Borges, Jose G.; Palma, João H.N.; Ray, Duncan; Zimmermann, Niklaus E.; Delzon, Sylvain; Kremer, Antoine; Kramer, Koen; Reyer, Christopher P.O.; Lasch-Born, Petra; Garcia-Gonzalo, Jordi; Hanewinkel, Marc

2017-01-01

Adapting the management of forest resources to climate change involves addressing several crucial aspects to provide a valid basis for decision making. These include the knowledge and belief of decision makers, the mapping of management options for the current as well as anticipated future

Do adapted vignettes improve medical decision-making capacity for individuals with Alzheimer's disease?

Science.gov (United States)

Thalén, Liv; Heimann Mühlenbock, Katarina; Almkvist, Ove; Eriksdotter, Maria; Sundström, Erik; Tallberg, Ing-Mari

2017-12-01

Medical decision-making capacity (MDC) is known to decline in individuals with Alzheimer's disease (AD). The vignette method uses hypothetical information as a prerequisite for measuring the capacity to make well-informed decisions to clinical trials. Our aim was to investigate if adapted vignettes can help individuals with mild AD to assimilate information, make decisions and express them in an understandable way, compared to corresponding decisions based on linguistically more demanding vignettes, as measured by the Swedish Linguistic Instrument for Medical Decision-making (LIMD). Two vignettes from LIMD were altered linguistically with the aim to facilitate understanding for individuals with AD. An experimental within-subject design was used to study the influence on MDC of readability (original/adapted vignettes) and content (two different clinical trials). We included 24 patients with mild AD in this prospective study, which read all four vignettes along with a few other tests. This allowed us to investigate the association between MDC and cognitive function. Adapted vignettes did not yield significant differences regarding MDC as compared with original vignettes using a two-way repeated measures analysis of variance. A difference was found between the two clinical trials where LIMD score was significantly higher for Kidney disease than hypertension vignettes. Our results indicate that adapted vignettes may not improve MDC for individuals with mild AD. MDC was affected by which clinical trial the vignettes regarded, which implies that other factors affecting MDC need to be investigated, like length of text and vocabulary used. © 2017 Scandinavian Psychological Associations and John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Cognitive Adaptability: The Role of Metacognition and Feedback in Entrepreneural Decision Policies

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Haynie, James M

2005-01-01

..." cognitive strategies to promote cognitive adaptability, which I define as the ability to appropriately evolve individual decision-frameworks in concert with a changing and uncertain environment...

Locally adaptive decision in detection of clustered microcalcifications in mammograms

Science.gov (United States)

Sainz de Cea, María V.; Nishikawa, Robert M.; Yang, Yongyi

2018-02-01

In computer-aided detection or diagnosis of clustered microcalcifications (MCs) in mammograms, the performance often suffers from not only the presence of false positives (FPs) among the detected individual MCs but also large variability in detection accuracy among different cases. To address this issue, we investigate a locally adaptive decision scheme in MC detection by exploiting the noise characteristics in a lesion area. Instead of developing a new MC detector, we propose a decision scheme on how to best decide whether a detected object is an MC or not in the detector output. We formulate the individual MCs as statistical outliers compared to the many noisy detections in a lesion area so as to account for the local image characteristics. To identify the MCs, we first consider a parametric method for outlier detection, the Mahalanobis distance detector, which is based on a multi-dimensional Gaussian distribution on the noisy detections. We also consider a non-parametric method which is based on a stochastic neighbor graph model of the detected objects. We demonstrated the proposed decision approach with two existing MC detectors on a set of 188 full-field digital mammograms (95 cases). The results, evaluated using free response operating characteristic (FROC) analysis, showed a significant improvement in detection accuracy by the proposed outlier decision approach over traditional thresholding (the partial area under the FROC curve increased from 3.95 to 4.25, p-value  FPs at a given sensitivity level. The proposed adaptive decision approach could not only reduce the number of FPs in detected MCs but also improve case-to-case consistency in detection.

Adaptive Training and Collective Decision Support Based on Man-Machine Interface

Science.gov (United States)

2016-03-02

Based on Man -machine Interface The views, opinions and/or findings contained in this report are those of the author(s) and should not contrued as an...ADDRESS (ES) U.S. Army Research Office P.O. Box 12211 Research Triangle Park, NC 27709-2211 adaptive training, EEG, man -machine interface...non peer-reviewed journals: Final Report: Adaptive Training and Collective Decision Support Based on Man -machine Interface Report Title The existence of

Adaptive management and environmental decision making. A case study application to water use planning

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gregory, Robin; Failing, Lee; Higgins, Paul

2006-01-01

Adaptive management (AM) techniques are one of the principal tools proposed by environmental decision makers to provide flexible and responsive management approaches over time. However, the record of successful applications is surprisingly small. We believe that this in part reflects the lack of an intuitively plausible framework for evaluating AM initiatives. This paper outlines such a framework, based on the insights of decision analysis, for evaluating the use of AM as a technique to improve environmental management decisions. British Columbia's Water Use Plan (WUP) process, which has developed operating plans for more than 20 major hydroelectric facilities, is introduced as a case-study example. The discussion emphasizes that decisions to adopt adaptive management strategies involve judgments concerning tradeoffs across a variety of economic, environmental, and social objectives. As a result, adaptive management initiatives need to be carefully evaluated based on their merits relative to other alternatives. Within an AM framework, alternative experimental designs should be evaluated because the design of a preferred experiment involves choices among different levels of investment, the quality of available and desired future information, and different ecological, economic, and social risks. (author)

Using social network analysis to evaluate health-related adaptation decision-making in Cambodia.

Science.gov (United States)

Bowen, Kathryn J; Alexander, Damon; Miller, Fiona; Dany, Va

2014-01-30

Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or 'shadow networks') in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance 'map' in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

Using Social Network Analysis to Evaluate Health-Related Adaptation Decision-Making in Cambodia

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn J. Bowen

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Climate change adaptation in the health sector requires decisions across sectors, levels of government, and organisations. The networks that link these different institutions, and the relationships among people within these networks, are therefore critical influences on the nature of adaptive responses to climate change in the health sector. This study uses social network research to identify key organisational players engaged in developing health-related adaptation activities in Cambodia. It finds that strong partnerships are reported as developing across sectors and different types of organisations in relation to the health risks from climate change. Government ministries are influential organisations, whereas donors, development banks and non-government organisations do not appear to be as influential in the development of adaptation policy in the health sector. Finally, the study highlights the importance of informal partnerships (or ‘shadow networks’ in the context of climate change adaptation policy and activities. The health governance ‘map’ in relation to health and climate change adaptation that is developed in this paper is a novel way of identifying organisations that are perceived as key agents in the decision-making process, and it holds substantial benefits for both understanding and intervening in a broad range of climate change-related policy problems where collaboration is paramount for successful outcomes.

Examining Challenges Related to the Production of Actionable Climate Knowledge for Adaptation Decision-Making: A Focus on Climate Knowledge System Producers

Science.gov (United States)

Ernst, K.; Preston, B. L.; Tenggren, S.; Klein, R.; Gerger-Swartling, Å.

2017-12-01

Many challenges to adaptation decision-making and action have been identified across peer-reviewed and gray literature. These challenges have primarily focused on the use of climate knowledge for adaptation decision-making, the process of adaptation decision-making, and the needs of the decision-maker. Studies on climate change knowledge systems often discuss the imperative role of climate knowledge producers in adaptation decision-making processes and stress the need for producers to engage in knowledge co-production activities and to more effectively meet decision-maker needs. While the influence of climate knowledge producers on the co-production of science for adaptation decision-making is well-recognized, hardly any research has taken a direct approach to analyzing the challenges that climate knowledge producers face when undertaking science co-production. Those challenges can influence the process of knowledge production and may hinder the creation, utilization, and dissemination of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making. This study involves semi-structured interviews, focus groups, and participant observations to analyze, identify, and contextualize the challenges that climate knowledge producers in Sweden face as they endeavor to create effective climate knowledge systems for multiple contexts, scales, and levels across the European Union. Preliminary findings identify complex challenges related to education, training, and support; motivation, willingness, and culture; varying levels of prioritization; professional roles and responsibilities; the type and amount of resources available; and professional incentive structures. These challenges exist at varying scales and levels across individuals, organizations, networks, institutions, and disciplines. This study suggests that the creation of actionable knowledge for adaptation decision-making is not supported across scales and levels in the climate knowledge production landscape. Additionally

The Business of Co-Production: Assessing Efforts to Bridge Science and Decision-Making for Adaptation in California

Science.gov (United States)

Webber, S.; MacDonald, G. M.

2016-12-01

The last decades have seen scholars argue for a greater integration of science and decision-making in order to more effectively respond to climate change. It has been suggested that overcoming the gap between science, on the one hand, and policy-making and management, on the other, requires building bridges through methods of co-production, creating actionable science, or through boundary organizations. In this paper, we review attempts at co-production for policy-making and management in the context of climate change adaptation in California. Building on field research, including numerous interviews conducted with scientists and decision-makers who are co-producers of adaptation projects, we make three arguments. First, we show that an emphasis on co-production and science-informed climate change adaptation decision-making has bolstered a contract-oriented, and decentralized network-based model of producing climate science. Second, reviewing successes and failures in co-production - as reported in interviews - indicates that it is principally in cases of neatly defined, and spatially and temporarily narrow decision-making contexts, and with highly motivated decision-makers, that climate science is used. Finally, we suggest that the ideas of co-production and actionable science may have increased the institutional and organizational burden at the science-decision interface, lengthening the boundary-organization-chain rather than necessarily facilitating adaptive policy-making and management.

Keys to success for data-driven decision making: Lessons from participatory monitoring and collaborative adaptive management

Science.gov (United States)

Recent years have witnessed a call for evidence-based decisions in conservation and natural resource management, including data-driven decision-making. Adaptive management (AM) is one prevalent model for integrating scientific data into decision-making, yet AM has faced numerous challenges and limit...

Would science serve decision-making to adapt the impact of climate change? Introduction to Climate Change Adaptation – scientific evidence, assessment framework and decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Gin-Rong Liu Peiwen Lu

2017-01-01

Full Text Available We live in challenging times with a heightened sense of uncertainty and unpredictability. Climate change, with its impact on disruptive events as well as gradual trends, has been addressed in scientific studies and become increasingly important in policymaking. This rises up a great need on scientific integration and knowledge transformation. The Taiwan Integrated Research Programme on Climate Change Adaptation Technology (TaiCCAT is formed under this concern. Directing by the Ministry of Science and Technology (MOST, it carries a strong intention to explore and to conduct adequate knowledge of climate change and adaptation strategies for decision-making supports. The TaiCCAT highly recommends the approach of cross-disciplinary collaboration from environmental studies to adaptation governance. The result can therefore be more contributive to reflect the complexity of the changing world.

Decision-Making under Uncertainty for Water Sustainability and Urban Climate Change Adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kelli L. Larson

2015-11-01

Full Text Available Complexities and uncertainties surrounding urbanization and climate change complicate water resource sustainability. Although research has examined various aspects of complex water systems, including uncertainties, relatively few attempts have been made to synthesize research findings in particular contexts. We fill this gap by examining the complexities, uncertainties, and decision processes for water sustainability and urban adaptation to climate change in the case study region of Phoenix, Arizona. In doing so, we integrate over a decade of research conducted by Arizona State University’s Decision Center for a Desert City (DCDC. DCDC is a boundary organization that conducts research in collaboration with policy makers, with the goal of informing decision-making under uncertainty. Our results highlight: the counterintuitive, non-linear, and competing relationships in human–environment dynamics; the myriad uncertainties in climatic, scientific, political, and other domains of knowledge and practice; and, the social learning that has occurred across science and policy spheres. Finally, we reflect on how our interdisciplinary research and boundary organization has evolved over time to enhance adaptive and sustainable governance in the face of complex system dynamics.

Optimizing Decision Preparedness by Adapting Scenario Complexity and Automating Scenario Generation

Science.gov (United States)

Dunne, Rob; Schatz, Sae; Flore, Stephen M.; Nicholson, Denise

2011-01-01

Klein's recognition-primed decision (RPD) framework proposes that experts make decisions by recognizing similarities between current decision situations and previous decision experiences. Unfortunately, military personnel arQ often presented with situations that they have not experienced before. Scenario-based training (S8T) can help mitigate this gap. However, SBT remains a challenging and inefficient training approach. To address these limitations, the authors present an innovative formulation of scenario complexity that contributes to the larger research goal of developing an automated scenario generation system. This system will enable trainees to effectively advance through a variety of increasingly complex decision situations and experiences. By adapting scenario complexities and automating generation, trainees will be provided with a greater variety of appropriately calibrated training events, thus broadening their repositories of experience. Preliminary results from empirical testing (N=24) of the proof-of-concept formula are presented, and future avenues of scenario complexity research are also discussed.

Coastal Adaptation Planning for Sea Level Rise and Extremes: A Global Model for Adaptation Decision-making at the Local Level Given Uncertain Climate Projections

Science.gov (United States)

Turner, D.

2014-12-01

Understanding the potential economic and physical impacts of climate change on coastal resources involves evaluating a number of distinct adaptive responses. This paper presents a tool for such analysis, a spatially-disaggregated optimization model for adaptation to sea level rise (SLR) and storm surge, the Coastal Impact and Adaptation Model (CIAM). This decision-making framework fills a gap between very detailed studies of specific locations and overly aggregate global analyses. While CIAM is global in scope, the optimal adaptation strategy is determined at the local level, evaluating over 12,000 coastal segments as described in the DIVA database (Vafeidis et al. 2006). The decision to pursue a given adaptation measure depends on local socioeconomic factors like income, population, and land values and how they develop over time, relative to the magnitude of potential coastal impacts, based on geophysical attributes like inundation zones and storm surge. For example, the model's decision to protect or retreat considers the costs of constructing and maintaining coastal defenses versus those of relocating people and capital to minimize damages from land inundation and coastal storms. Uncertain storm surge events are modeled with a generalized extreme value distribution calibrated to data on local surge extremes. Adaptation is optimized for the near-term outlook, in an "act then learn then act" framework that is repeated over the model time horizon. This framework allows the adaptation strategy to be flexibly updated, reflecting the process of iterative risk management. CIAM provides new estimates of the economic costs of SLR; moreover, these detailed results can be compactly represented in a set of adaptation and damage functions for use in integrated assessment models. Alongside the optimal result, CIAM evaluates suboptimal cases and finds that global costs could increase by an order of magnitude, illustrating the importance of adaptive capacity and coastal policy.

Economic decision-models for climate adaptation: a survey; Ekonomiska verktyg som beslutsstoed i klimatanpassningsarbetet: en metodoeversikt

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kaagebro, Elin; Vredin Johansson, Maria

2008-05-15

Several of the adaptations to the climate change we are about to experience will occur successively and voluntarily in response to the climate change experienced. In many cases these adaptations will work perfectly but, for investments and activities with relatively long life-times (say more than 25 years) and for investments and activities that are sensitive to climate extremes, climate change requires increased planning and foresight. In these situations economic decision models can aid the decision-makers through providing well-founded bases for the decisions, as well as tools for prioritizations. In this report we describe the most common economic decision-models: cost-benefit analysis (CBA), cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA). The descriptions will form a foundation for the continuing work on generating tools that can be useful for local decision-makers in their pursuit of coping with climate change within the Climatools programme

Assessing Affective and Deliberative Decision-Making: Adaptation of the Columbia Card Task to Brazilian Portuguese.

Science.gov (United States)

Kluwe-Schiavon, Bruno; Sanvicente-Vieira, Breno; Viola, Thiago W; Veiga, Eduardo; Bortolotto, Vanessa; Grassi-Oliveira, Rodrigo

2015-11-20

The ability to predict reward and punishment is essential for decision-making and the ability to learn about an ever-changing environment. Therefore, efforts have been made in understanding the mechanisms underlying decision-making, especially regarding how affective and deliberative processes interact with risk behavior. To adapt to Brazilian Portuguese the Columbia Card Task (CCT) and investigate affective and deliberative processes involved in decision-making. This study had two main phases: (1) a transcultural adaptation and (2) a pilot study. The feedback manipulation among the three conditions of CCT had an effect on the risk-taking level (p accounting for 17% of the variance. The Brazilian CCT performs well and is a versatile method for the assessment of affective and deliberative decision-making under risk according to different feedback manipulation scenarios. This study goes further, comparing electrodermal activity during hot and warm conditions and addressing an advantageous level index analysis to asses deliberative processing.

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data.

Science.gov (United States)

Dexter, Franklin; Wachtel, Ruth E; Epstein, Richard H

2011-01-07

No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR) management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1). Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS) data for most scenarios (43 of 45). Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of individualized assessments. Our technical advance is the

Event-based knowledge elicitation of operating room management decision-making using scenarios adapted from information systems data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Epstein Richard H

2011-01-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background No systematic process has previously been described for a needs assessment that identifies the operating room (OR management decisions made by the anesthesiologists and nurse managers at a facility that do not maximize the efficiency of use of OR time. We evaluated whether event-based knowledge elicitation can be used practically for rapid assessment of OR management decision-making at facilities, whether scenarios can be adapted automatically from information systems data, and the usefulness of the approach. Methods A process of event-based knowledge elicitation was developed to assess OR management decision-making that may reduce the efficiency of use of OR time. Hypothetical scenarios addressing every OR management decision influencing OR efficiency were created from published examples. Scenarios are adapted, so that cues about conditions are accurate and appropriate for each facility (e.g., if OR 1 is used as an example in a scenario, the listed procedure is a type of procedure performed at the facility in OR 1. Adaptation is performed automatically using the facility's OR information system or anesthesia information management system (AIMS data for most scenarios (43 of 45. Performing the needs assessment takes approximately 1 hour of local managers' time while they decide if their decisions are consistent with the described scenarios. A table of contents of the indexed scenarios is created automatically, providing a simple version of problem solving using case-based reasoning. For example, a new OR manager wanting to know the best way to decide whether to move a case can look in the chapter on "Moving Cases on the Day of Surgery" to find a scenario that describes the situation being encountered. Results Scenarios have been adapted and used at 22 hospitals. Few changes in decisions were needed to increase the efficiency of use of OR time. The few changes were heterogeneous among hospitals, showing the usefulness of

Observations to support adaptation: Principles, scales and decision-making

Science.gov (United States)

Pulwarty, R. S.

2012-12-01

As has been long noted, a comprehensive, coordinated observing system is the backbone of any Earth information system. Demands are increasingly placed on earth observation and prediction systems and attendant services to address the needs of economically and environmentally vulnerable sectors and investments, including energy, water, human health, transportation, agriculture, fisheries, tourism, biodiversity, and national security. Climate services include building capacity to interpret information and recognize standards and limitations of data in the promotion of social and economic development in a changing climate. This includes improving the understanding of climate in the context of a variety of temporal and spatial scales (including the influence of decadal scale forcings and land surface feedbacks on seasonal forecast reliability). Climate data and information are central for developing decision options that are sensitive to climate-related uncertainties and the design of flexible adaptation pathways. Ideally monitoring should be action oriented to support climate risk assessment and adaptation including informing robust decision making to multiple risks over the long term. Based on the experience of global observations programs and empirical research we outline- Challenges in developing effective monitoring and climate information systems to support adaptation. The types of observations of critical importance needed for sector planning to enhance food, water and energy security, and to improve early warning for disaster risk reduction Observations needed for ecosystem-based adaptation including the identification of thresholds, maintenance of biological diversity and land degradation The benefits and limits of linking regional model output to local observations including analogs and verification for adaptation planning To support these goals a robust systems of integrated observations are needed to characterize the uncertainty surrounding emergent risks

Agenciamentos semióticos em ambientes de streaming de músicas online: mente, aprendizado e continuidade

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Natália Moura Pacheco Cortez

2014-12-01

Full Text Available Semiotics in music streaming environments: mind, learning and continuity – Based on the notions of agency (Deleuze and Guattari and semiosis (Peirce, this paper discusses a study of the hybrid forms of interaction between interfaces and human agents in the music streaming environments LastFM, Grooveshark, and Deezer. The Peircean model of semiosis is taken as the conceptual framework to explain how the hybrid forms of agency interact at the interface between humans and machines. This paper proposes the notion of “semiotic agency” as a conceptual tool in the study of the learning processes whereby machines acquire knowledge about human preferences and decisions and are able to transform them into recommendations. The relationship of continuity between human minds and interface agents is discussed from the Peircean perspective of synechism and semiosis as a continuous process.

The image in print advertising and comments to Val Larsen's research program

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Bent; Thellefsen, Torkild Leo; Thellefsen, Martin Muderspach

2017-01-01

In this article, the authors re-visit, with Val Larsen, the use of Peircean icons and symbols in print advertising and thereby find (some) formal conditions concerning its images. Even though they are inspired by Val Larsen's research program the authors are also critical of it. Hence, they set out...... to demonstrate how Val Larsen overlooks crucial parts of the semiotic potential of icons and symbols within print advertising. Furthermore, Val Larsen needs, they argue, the Peircean index within his research program. At the end of the article, and inspired by Val Larsen, the authors put forth nine Peircean...... points they find relevant for a research program concerning the image within print advertising. Here, ontological and methodological deductions are made from Peircean ideas and principles....

Using plural modeling for predicting decisions made by adaptive adversaries

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Buede, Dennis M.; Mahoney, Suzanne; Ezell, Barry; Lathrop, John

2012-01-01

Incorporating an appropriate representation of the likelihood of terrorist decision outcomes into risk assessments associated with weapons of mass destruction attacks has been a significant problem for countries around the world. Developing these likelihoods gets at the heart of the most difficult predictive problems: human decision making, adaptive adversaries, and adversaries about which very little is known. A plural modeling approach is proposed that incorporates estimates of all critical uncertainties: who is the adversary and what skills and resources are available to him, what information is known to the adversary and what perceptions of the important facts are held by this group or individual, what does the adversary know about the countermeasure actions taken by the government in question, what are the adversary's objectives and the priorities of those objectives, what would trigger the adversary to start an attack and what kind of success does the adversary desire, how realistic is the adversary in estimating the success of an attack, how does the adversary make a decision and what type of model best predicts this decision-making process. A computational framework is defined to aggregate the predictions from a suite of models, based on this broad array of uncertainties. A validation approach is described that deals with a significant scarcity of data.

Homeostatic regulation of memory systems and adaptive decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Mizumori, Sheri J Y; Jo, Yong Sang

2013-11-01

While it is clear that many brain areas process mnemonic information, understanding how their interactions result in continuously adaptive behaviors has been a challenge. A homeostatic-regulated prediction model of memory is presented that considers the existence of a single memory system that is based on a multilevel coordinated and integrated network (from cells to neural systems) that determines the extent to which events and outcomes occur as predicted. The "multiple memory systems of the brain" have in common output that signals errors in the prediction of events and/or their outcomes, although these signals differ in terms of what the error signal represents (e.g., hippocampus: context prediction errors vs. midbrain/striatum: reward prediction errors). The prefrontal cortex likely plays a pivotal role in the coordination of prediction analysis within and across prediction brain areas. By virtue of its widespread control and influence, and intrinsic working memory mechanisms. Thus, the prefrontal cortex supports the flexible processing needed to generate adaptive behaviors and predict future outcomes. It is proposed that prefrontal cortex continually and automatically produces adaptive responses according to homeostatic regulatory principles: prefrontal cortex may serve as a controller that is intrinsically driven to maintain in prediction areas an experience-dependent firing rate set point that ensures adaptive temporally and spatially resolved neural responses to future prediction errors. This same drive by prefrontal cortex may also restore set point firing rates after deviations (i.e. prediction errors) are detected. In this way, prefrontal cortex contributes to reducing uncertainty in prediction systems. An emergent outcome of this homeostatic view may be the flexible and adaptive control that prefrontal cortex is known to implement (i.e. working memory) in the most challenging of situations. Compromise to any of the prediction circuits should result in

Understanding and applying principles of social cognition and decision making in adaptive environmental governance

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Environmental governance systems are under greater pressure to adapt and to cope with increased social and ecological uncertainty from stressors like climate change. We review principles of social cognition and decision making that shape and constrain how environmental governance...

Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Daniel Lane; Shima Beigzadeh; Richard Moll

2017-01-01

This research develops and applies a system dynamics (SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities.The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability,resilience,and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental,economic,social,and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat.The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alternative adaptation strategies.The calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alternative strategies.The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown,Prince Edward Island,Canada.The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown-facing increased frequency of severe storms,storm surges,and sea-level rise-provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal environment.This research is presented as part of the International Community-University Research Alliance C-Change project "Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities:Canada and the Caribbean" sponsored by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Resource Centre.

Training complexity is not decisive factor for improving adaptation to visual sensory conflict.

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Yang, Yang; Pu, Fang; Li, Shuyu; Li, Yan; Li, Deyu; Fan, Yubo

2012-01-01

Ground-based preflight training utilizing unusual visual stimuli is useful for decreasing the susceptibility to space motion sickness (SMS). The effectiveness of the sensorimotor adaptation training is affected by the training tasks, but what kind of task is more effective remains unknown. Whether the complexity is the decisive factor to consider for designing the training and if other factors are more important need to be analyzed. The results from the analysis can help to optimize the preflight training tasks for astronauts. Twenty right-handed subjects were asked to draw the right path of 45° rotated maze before and after 30 min training. Subjects wore an up-down reversing prism spectacle in test and training sessions. Two training tasks were performed: drawing the right path of the horizontal maze (complex task but with different orientation feature) and drawing the L-shape lines (easy task with same orientation feature). The error rate and the executing time were measured during the test. Paired samples t test was used to compare the effects of the two training tasks. After each training, the error rate and the executing time were significantly decreased. However, the training effectiveness of the easy task was better as the test was finished more quickly and accurately. The complexity is not always the decisive factor for designing the adaptation training task, e.g. the orientation feature is more important in this study. In order to accelerate the adaptation and to counter SMS, the task for astronauts preflight adaptation training could be simple activities with the key features.

Training Adaptive Decision-Making.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Abbott, Robert G.; Forsythe, James C.

2014-10-01

Adaptive Thinking has been defined here as the capacity to recognize when a course of action that may have previously been effective is no longer effective and there is need to adjust strategy. Research was undertaken with human test subjects to identify the factors that contribute to adaptive thinking. It was discovered that those most effective in settings that call for adaptive thinking tend to possess a superior capacity to quickly and effectively generate possible courses of action, as measured using the Category Generation test. Software developed for this research has been applied to develop capabilities enabling analysts to identify crucial factors that are predictive of outcomes in fore-on-force simulation exercises.

Training support for Naturalistic Decision Making : Serious gaming for adaptive performance of military personnel

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Mun, Y.; Hulst, A.H. van der; Oprins, E.A.P.B.; Schraagen, J.M.C.

2017-01-01

Introduction: For effective decision making in the 21st century where operational environments are complex and uncertain, there is a strong need for training support and its practical application to naturalistic, real-world settings. In this contribution, we focus on training of adaptive performance

Impacts of Agricultural Decision Making and Adaptive Management on Food Security in Africa

Science.gov (United States)

Caylor, K. K.; Evans, T. P.; Estes, L. D.; Sheffield, J.; Plale, B. A.; Attari, S.

2014-12-01

Despite massive investments in food aid, agricultural extension, and seed/fertilizer subsidies, nearly 1 billion people in the developing world are food insecure and vulnerable to climate variability. Sub-Saharan Africa is most vulnerable, as approximately 25% of its people are undernourished (FAO/FAOSTAT 2013) and 96% of its cropland is rainfed (FAO 2002). The ability of subsistence farmers to respond to changes in water availability involves both inter-and intra-seasonal adaptation. Adaptive capacity diminishes over the season as decisions are made, resources are used, and the set of possible futures becomes restricted. Assessing the intra-seasonal adaptive capacity of smallholders requires integrating physical models of hydrological and agricultural dynamics with farmer decision-making at fine temporal (e.g. weekly) and spatial (e.g. crop field) scales. However, there is an intrinsic challenge to modeling the dynamics of these sociohydrologic systems, because important and uncharacterized spatial and temporal scale mismatches exist between the level at which the water resource is best understood and the level at which human dynamics are more predictable. For example, the skill of current process-based land surface models is primarily confined to short-term (daily to weekly), national- to regional-scale assessments, and reliable agricultural yield estimates and forecasts for small-scale farming systems remain elusive. In contrast, process-based social science modeling has focused on agent-based approaches that generate fine-scale (individual to community) dynamics over rather coarse time scales (yearly to decadal). A major obstacle to addressing this mismatch is the fundamental fact that the highest skill domain of one framework is essentially unpredictable in the other. We present a coupled sociohydrological observation framework designed to addressing this gap, and demonstrate its utility to understand relationships between climate variability, decision making

Adapting Cognitive Task Analysis to Investigate Clinical Decision Making and Medication Safety Incidents.

Science.gov (United States)

Russ, Alissa L; Militello, Laura G; Glassman, Peter A; Arthur, Karen J; Zillich, Alan J; Weiner, Michael

2017-05-03

Cognitive task analysis (CTA) can yield valuable insights into healthcare professionals' cognition and inform system design to promote safe, quality care. Our objective was to adapt CTA-the critical decision method, specifically-to investigate patient safety incidents, overcome barriers to implementing this method, and facilitate more widespread use of cognitive task analysis in healthcare. We adapted CTA to facilitate recruitment of healthcare professionals and developed a data collection tool to capture incidents as they occurred. We also leveraged the electronic health record (EHR) to expand data capture and used EHR-stimulated recall to aid reconstruction of safety incidents. We investigated 3 categories of medication-related incidents: adverse drug reactions, drug-drug interactions, and drug-disease interactions. Healthcare professionals submitted incidents, and a subset of incidents was selected for CTA. We analyzed several outcomes to characterize incident capture and completed CTA interviews. We captured 101 incidents. Eighty incidents (79%) met eligibility criteria. We completed 60 CTA interviews, 20 for each incident category. Capturing incidents before interviews allowed us to shorten the interview duration and reduced reliance on healthcare professionals' recall. Incorporating the EHR into CTA enriched data collection. The adapted CTA technique was successful in capturing specific categories of safety incidents. Our approach may be especially useful for investigating safety incidents that healthcare professionals "fix and forget." Our innovations to CTA are expected to expand the application of this method in healthcare and inform a wide range of studies on clinical decision making and patient safety.

Preventing KPI Violations in Business Processes based on Decision Tree Learning and Proactive Runtime Adaptation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Dimka Karastoyanova

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The performance of business processes is measured and monitored in terms of Key Performance Indicators (KPIs. If the monitoring results show that the KPI targets are violated, the underlying reasons have to be identified and the process should be adapted accordingly to address the violations. In this paper we propose an integrated monitoring, prediction and adaptation approach for preventing KPI violations of business process instances. KPIs are monitored continuously while the process is executed. Additionally, based on KPI measurements of historical process instances we use decision tree learning to construct classification models which are then used to predict the KPI value of an instance while it is still running. If a KPI violation is predicted, we identify adaptation requirements and adaptation strategies in order to prevent the violation.

Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

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Cécile Aenishaenslin

Full Text Available Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or

Adaptation and Evaluation of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Model for Lyme Disease Prevention.

Science.gov (United States)

Aenishaenslin, Cécile; Gern, Lise; Michel, Pascal; Ravel, André; Hongoh, Valérie; Waaub, Jean-Philippe; Milord, François; Bélanger, Denise

2015-01-01

Designing preventive programs relevant to vector-borne diseases such as Lyme disease (LD) can be complex given the need to include multiple issues and perspectives into prioritizing public health actions. A multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) model was previously used to rank interventions for LD prevention in Quebec, Canada, where the disease is emerging. The aim of the current study was to adapt and evaluate the decision model constructed in Quebec under a different epidemiological context, in Switzerland, where LD has been endemic for the last thirty years. The model adaptation was undertaken with a group of Swiss stakeholders using a participatory approach. The PROMETHEE method was used for multi-criteria analysis. Key elements and results of the MCDA model are described and contrasted with the Quebec model. All criteria and most interventions of the MCDA model developed for LD prevention in Quebec were directly transferable to the Swiss context. Four new decision criteria were added, and the list of proposed interventions was modified. Based on the overall group ranking, interventions targeting human populations were prioritized in the Swiss model, with the top ranked action being the implementation of a large communication campaign. The addition of criteria did not significantly alter the intervention rankings, but increased the capacity of the model to discriminate between highest and lowest ranked interventions. The current study suggests that beyond the specificity of the MCDA models developed for Quebec and Switzerland, their general structure captures the fundamental and common issues that characterize the complexity of vector-borne disease prevention. These results should encourage public health organizations to adapt, use and share MCDA models as an effective and functional approach to enable the integration of multiple perspectives and considerations in the prevention and control of complex public health issues such as Lyme disease or other vector

Decision-centric adaptation appraisal for water management across Colorado’s Continental Divide

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David N. Yates

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A multi-step decision support process was developed and applied to the physically and legally complex case of water diversions from the Upper Colorado River across the Continental Divide to serve cities and farms along Colorado’s Front Range. We illustrate our approach by simulating the performance of an existing drought-response measure, the Shoshone Call Relaxation Agreement (SCRA [the adaptation measure], using the Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP tool [the hydrologic cycle and water systems model]; and the Statistical DownScaling Model (SDSM-DC [the stochastic climate scenario generator]. Scenarios relevant to the decision community were analyzed and results indicate that this drought management measure would provide only a small storage benefit in offsetting the impacts of a shift to a warmer and drier future climate coupled with related environmental changes. The analysis demonstrates the importance of engaging water managers in the development of credible and computationally efficient decision support tools that accurately capture the physical, legal and contractual dimensions of their climate risk management problems.

Managing for climate change on protected areas: An adaptive management decision making framework.

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Tanner-McAllister, Sherri L; Rhodes, Jonathan; Hockings, Marc

2017-12-15

Current protected area management is becoming more challenging with advancing climate change and current park management techniques may not be adequate to adapt for effective management into the future. The framework presented here provides an adaptive management decision making process to assist protected area managers with adapting on-park management to climate change. The framework sets out a 4 step process. One, a good understanding of the park's context within climate change. Secondly, a thorough understanding of the park management systems including governance, planning and management systems. Thirdly, a series of management options set out as an accept/prevent change style structure, including a systematic assessment of those options. The adaptive approaches are defined as acceptance of anthropogenic climate change impact and attempt to adapt to a new climatic environment or prevention of change and attempt to maintain current systems under new climatic variations. Last, implementation and monitoring of long term trends in response to ecological responses to management interventions and assessing management effectiveness. The framework addresses many issues currently with park management in dealing with climate change including the considerable amount of research focussing on 'off-reserve' strategies, and threats and stress focused in situ park management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Can Conservation Contracts Co-exist with Change? Payment for Ecosystem Services in the Context of Adaptive Decision-Making and Sustainability

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Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

2015-01-01

This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

Can conservation contracts co-exist with change? Payment for ecosystem services in the context of adaptive decision-making and sustainability.

Science.gov (United States)

Hayes, Tanya; Murtinho, Felipe; Cárdenas Camacho, Luis Mario; Crespo, Patricio; McHugh, Sarah; Salmerón, David

2015-01-01

This paper considers the ability of payment for ecosystem services (PES) programs to operate in the context of dynamic and complex social-ecological systems. Drawing on the experiences of two different PES programs in Latin America, we examine how PES institutions fit with the tenets of adaptive decision-making for sustainable resource management. We identify how the program goals and the connection to the market influence the incentive structure, information gathering, learning and feedback processes, and the structure of decision-making rights, specifically the ability to make and modify resource-use rules. Although limited in their generalizability, findings from the two case studies suggest a tension between the contractual model of PES and adaptive decision-making in natural resource systems. PES programs are not inherently decentralized, flexible management tools, as PES contracts tend to restrict decision-making rights and offer minimal flexibility mechanisms to change resource-use practices over the duration of the contract period. Furthermore, PES design and flexibility is heavily dependent on the goals and mission of the buyer and the respective market. If PES is to facilitate sustainable resource management, greater attention is needed to assess how the institutional design of the PES contracts influence the motivation and capacity of participants and program officers alike to adaptively manage the respective resource systems.

Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Stefania Munaretto

2014-06-01

Full Text Available Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate adaptation, adaptive governance seems to be a promising approach for improving climate adaptation governance. However, the adaptive governance literature has so far paid little attention to decision-making tools and methods, and the literature on the governance of adaptation is in its infancy in this regard. We argue that climate adaptation governance would benefit from systematic and yet flexible decision-making tools and methods such as participatory multicriteria methods for the evaluation of adaptation options, and that these methods can be linked to key adaptive governance principles. Moving from these premises, we propose a framework that integrates key adaptive governance features into participatory multicriteria methods for the governance of climate adaptation.

Implementation of adapted PECARN decision rule for children with minor head injury in the pediatric emergency department.

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Bressan, Silvia; Romanato, Sabrina; Mion, Teresa; Zanconato, Stefania; Da Dalt, Liviana

2012-07-01

Of the currently published clinical decision rules for the management of minor head injury (MHI) in children, the Pediatric Emergency Care Applied Research Network (PECARN) rule, derived and validated in a large multicenter prospective study cohort, with high methodologic standards, appears to be the best clinical decision rule to accurately identify children at very low risk of clinically important traumatic brain injuries (ciTBI) in the pediatric emergency department (PED). This study describes the implementation of an adapted version of the PECARN rule in a tertiary care academic PED in Italy and evaluates implementation success, in terms of medical staff adherence and satisfaction, as well as its effects on clinical practice. The adapted PECARN decision rule algorithms for children (one for those younger than 2 years and one for those older than 2 years) were actively implemented in the PED of Padova, Italy, for a 6-month testing period. Adherence and satisfaction of medical staff to the new rule were calculated. Data from 356 visits for MHI during PECARN rule implementation and those of 288 patients attending the PED for MHI in the previous 6 months were compared for changes in computed tomography (CT) scan rate, ciTBI rate (defined as death, neurosurgery, intubation for longer than 24 hours, or hospital admission at least for two nights associated with TBI) and return visits for symptoms or signs potentially related to MHI. The safety and efficacy of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice were also calculated. Adherence to the adapted PECARN rule was 93.5%. The percentage of medical staff satisfied with the new rule, in terms of usefulness and ease of use for rapid decision-making, was significantly higher (96% vs. 51%, puse of the adapted PECARN rule in clinical practice was 100% (95% CI=36.8 to 100; three of three patients with ciTBI who received CT scan at first evaluation), while efficacy was 92.3% (95% CI=89 to 95; 326 of 353 patients without ci

Adaptive Management for Decision Making at the Program and Project Levels of the Missouri River Recovery Program

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Thom, Ronald M.; Anderson, Michael G.; Tyre, Drew; Fleming, Craig A.

2009-02-28

The paper, “Adaptive Management: Background for Stakeholders in the Missouri River Recovery Program,” introduced the concept of adaptive management (AM), its principles and how they relate to one-another, how AM is applied, and challenges for its implementation. This companion paper describes how the AM principles were applied to specific management actions within the Missouri River Recovery Program to facilitate understanding, decision-making, and stakeholder engagement. For context, we begin with a brief synopsis of the Missouri River Recovery Program (MRRP) and the strategy for implementing adaptive management (AM) within the program; we finish with an example of AM in action within Phase I of the MRPP.

The Role of Decision Support in Adapting to Climate Change: Findings from Three Place-based Regional Assessments

Science.gov (United States)

This report summarizes the methodologies and findings of three regional assessments and considers the role of decision support in assisting adaptation to climate change. Background. In conjunction with the US Global Change Research Program’s (USGCRP’s) National Assessment of ...

Adaptive decision making in a dynamic environment: a test of a sequential sampling model of relative judgment.

Science.gov (United States)

Vuckovic, Anita; Kwantes, Peter J; Neal, Andrew

2013-09-01

Research has identified a wide range of factors that influence performance in relative judgment tasks. However, the findings from this research have been inconsistent. Studies have varied with respect to the identification of causal variables and the perceptual and decision-making mechanisms underlying performance. Drawing on the ecological rationality approach, we present a theory of the judgment and decision-making processes involved in a relative judgment task that explains how people judge a stimulus and adapt their decision process to accommodate their own uncertainty associated with those judgments. Undergraduate participants performed a simulated air traffic control conflict detection task. Across two experiments, we systematically manipulated variables known to affect performance. In the first experiment, we manipulated the relative distances of aircraft to a common destination while holding aircraft speeds constant. In a follow-up experiment, we introduced a direct manipulation of relative speed. We then fit a sequential sampling model to the data, and used the best fitting parameters to infer the decision-making processes responsible for performance. Findings were consistent with the theory that people adapt to their own uncertainty by adjusting their criterion and the amount of time they take to collect evidence in order to make a more accurate decision. From a practical perspective, the paper demonstrates that one can use a sequential sampling model to understand performance in a dynamic environment, allowing one to make sense of and interpret complex patterns of empirical findings that would otherwise be difficult to interpret using standard statistical analyses. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

A Decision Tree Analysis to Support Potential Climate Change Adaptations of Striped Catfish (Pangasianodon hypophthalmus Sauvage) Farming in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nguyen, L.A.; Verreth, J.A.J.; Leemans, H.B.J.; Bosma, R.H.; Silva, De S.

2016-01-01

This study uses the decision tree framework to analyse possible climate change impact adaptation options for pangasius (Pangasianodon hypopthalmus Sauvage) farming in the Mekong Delta. Here we present the risks for impacts and the farmers' autonomous and planned public adaptation by using primary

Water security and adaptive capacity for climate: Learning lessons from drought decision making in U.S. urban contexts

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Dilling, L.

2017-12-01

Cities in the U.S. have been adapting to drought for many years, implementing a combination of mechanisms to cope with climate and water variability and increasing population. Cities are also at the frontline for making decisions about adaptation to climate change. Are decisions made to cope with drought helping cities to build the adaptive capacity necessary for adapting to climate change? We examined this question by conducting interviews with practitioners involved in drought management at urban water utilities across the U.S. to understand responses to drought and perceptions of their effectiveness. We then drew on established criteria for evaluating successful adaptation (effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy) to analyze whether these drought policies would build adaptive capacity for climate change. We find that drought responses overall are seen as successful in helping cities balance the demand and supply of water, and maintain system reliability as well as improve water awareness, but can have unintended consequences and shift vulnerability in unexpected ways. For example, even though cities are successful at reducing water use when needed, some are concerned with the increasing difficulty of finding new water savings during a future drought. Secondly, water conservation can affect revenue, impacting the ability of cities to plan for maintenance and capital costs. Third, the social acceptability of policy options is critical and depends on perceived fairness and other factors. Water managers are also challenged by "no fail" expectations that make it difficult to experiment. Moreover some measures can shift vulnerability from one risk, such as running out of water, to another risk, such as water becoming too expensive, lowering quality, or not meeting other key infrastructure design requirements. These findings demonstrate that adaptation measures that seek to reduce exposure to water scarcity can impact aspects of adaptive capacity, and shift

Development of decision support system for employee selection using Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

‘Azzam Abdullah

2018-01-01

Full Text Available The number of children day care is increasing from year to year. Children day care is categorized as service industry that help parents in caring and educate children. This type of service industry plays a substitute for the family at certain hours, usually during work hours. The common problems in this industry is related to the employee performance. Most of employees have a less understanding about the whole job. Some employees only perform a routine task, i.e. feeding, cleaning and putting the child to sleep. The role in educating children is not performed as well as possible. Therefore, the employee selection is an important process to solve a children day care problem. An effective decision support system is required to optimize the employee selection process. Adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system (ANFIS is used to develop the decision support system for employee selection process. The data used to build the system is the historical data of employee selection process in children day care. The data shows the characteristic of job applicant that qualified and not qualified. From that data, the system can perform a learning process and give the right decision. The system is able to provide the right decision with an error of 0,00016249. It means that the decision support system that developed using ANFIS can give the right recommendation for employee selection process.

iRESM INITIATIVE UNDERSTANDING DECISION SUPPORT NEEDS FOR CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION AND ADAPTATION --US Midwest Region—

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rice, Jennie S.; Runci, Paul J.; Moss, Richard H.; Anderson, Kate L.

2010-10-01

The impacts of climate change are already affecting human and environmental systems worldwide, yet many uncertainties persist in the prediction of future climate changes and impacts due to limitations in scientific understanding of relevant causal factors. In particular, there is mounting urgency to efforts to improve models of human and environmental systems at the regional scale, and to integrate climate, ecosystem and energy-economic models to support policy, investment, and risk management decisions related to climate change mitigation (i.e., reducing greenhouse gas emissions) and adaptation (i.e., responding to climate change impacts). The Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) is developing a modeling framework, the integrated Regional Earth System Model (iRESM), to address regional human-environmental system interactions in response to climate change and the uncertainties therein. The framework will consist of a suite of integrated models representing regional climate change, regional climate policy, and the regional economy, with a focus on simulating the mitigation and adaptation decisions made over time in the energy, transportation, agriculture, and natural resource management sectors.

Adaptation by Stealth: Understanding climate information use across scales and decision spaces in water management in the United States

Science.gov (United States)

Kirchhoff, C.; Vang Rasmussen, L.; Lemos, M. C.

2016-12-01

While there has been considerable focus on understanding how factors related to the creation of climate knowledge affect its uptake and use, less attention has been paid to the actors, decisions, and processes through which climate information supports, or fails to support, action. This is particularly the case concerning how different scales of decision-making influence information uptake. In this study, we seek to understand how water and resource managers' decision space influences climate information use in two Great Lakes watersheds. We find that despite the availability of tailored climate information, actual use of information in decision making remains low. Reasons include: a) lack of willingness to place climate on agendas because local managers perceive climate change as politically risky and a difficult and intangible problem; b) lack of formal mandate or authority at the city and county scale to translate climate information into on-the-ground action, c) problems with the information itself, and d) perceived lack of demand for climate information by those managers who have the mandate and authority (e.g. at the state level) to use (or help others use) climate information. Our findings suggest that 1) climate scientists and information brokers should produce information that meets a range of decision needs and reserve intensive tailoring efforts for decision makers who have authority and willingness to employ climate information, 2) without support from higher levels of decision-making (e.g. state) it is unlikely that climate information use for adaptation decisions will accelerate significantly in the next few years, and 3) the trend towards adopting more sustainability and resilience practices over climate-specific actions should be supported as an important component of the climate adaptation repertoire.

Adaptive lattice decision-feedback equalizers - Their performance and application to time-variant multipath channnels

Science.gov (United States)

Ling, F.; Proakis, J. G.

1985-04-01

This paper presents two types of adaptive lattice decision-feedback equalizers (DFE), the least squares (LS) lattice DFE and the gradient lattice DFE. Their performance has been investigated on both time-invariant and time-variant channels through computer simulations and compared to other kinds of equalizers. An analysis of the self-noise and tracking characteristics of the LS DFE and the DFE employing the Widrow-Hoff least mean square adaptive algorithm (LMS DFE) are also given. The analysis and simulation results show that the LS lattice DFE has the faster initial convergence rate, while the gradient lattice DFE is computationally more efficient. The main advantages of the lattice DFE's are their numerical stability, their computational efficiency, the flexibility to change their length, and their excellent capabilities for tracking rapidly time-variant channels.

"The Gaze Heuristic:" Biography of an Adaptively Rational Decision Process.

Science.gov (United States)

Hamlin, Robert P

2017-04-01

This article is a case study that describes the natural and human history of the gaze heuristic. The gaze heuristic is an interception heuristic that utilizes a single input (deviation from a constant angle of approach) repeatedly as a task is performed. Its architecture, advantages, and limitations are described in detail. A history of the gaze heuristic is then presented. In natural history, the gaze heuristic is the only known technique used by predators to intercept prey. In human history the gaze heuristic was discovered accidentally by Royal Air Force (RAF) fighter command just prior to World War II. As it was never discovered by the Luftwaffe, the technique conferred a decisive advantage upon the RAF throughout the war. After the end of the war in America, German technology was combined with the British heuristic to create the Sidewinder AIM9 missile, the most successful autonomous weapon ever built. There are no plans to withdraw it or replace its guiding gaze heuristic. The case study demonstrates that the gaze heuristic is a specific heuristic type that takes a single best input at the best time (take the best 2 ). Its use is an adaptively rational response to specific, rapidly evolving decision environments that has allowed those animals/humans/machines who use it to survive, prosper, and multiply relative to those who do not. Copyright © 2017 Cognitive Science Society, Inc.

Flexible and adaptive water systems operations through more informed and dynamic decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Castelletti, A.; Giuliani, M.

2016-12-01

Timely adapting the operations of water systems to be resilient against rapid changes in both hydroclimatic and socioeconomic forcing is generally recommended as a part of planning and managing water resources under uncertain futures. A great opportunity to make the operations more flexible and adaptive is offered by the unprecedented amount of information that is becoming available to water system operators, providing a wide range of data at increasingly higher temporal and spatial resolution. Yet, many water systems are still operated using very simple information systems, typically based on basic statistical analysis and the operator's experience. In this work, we discuss the potential offered by incorporating improved information to enhance water systems operation and increase their ability of adapting to different external conditions and resolving potential conflicts across sectors. In particular, we focus on the use of different variables associated to different dynamics of the system (slow and fast) diversely impacting the operating objectives on the short-, medium- and long-term. The multi-purpose operations of the Hoa Binh reservoir in the Red River Basin (Vietnam) is used to demonstrate our approach. Numerical results show that our procedure is able to automatically select the most valuable information for improving the Hoa Binh operations and mitigating the conflict between short-term objectives, i.e. hydropower production and flood control. Moreover, we also successfully identify low-frequency climate information associated to El-Nino Southern Oscillation for improving the performance in terms of long-term objectives, i.e. water supply. Finally, we assess the value of better informing operational decisions for adapting the system operations to changing conditions by considering different climate change projections.

Decision Trees Predicting Tumor Shrinkage for Head and Neck Cancer: Implications for Adaptive Radiotherapy.

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Surucu, Murat; Shah, Karan K; Mescioglu, Ibrahim; Roeske, John C; Small, William; Choi, Mehee; Emami, Bahman

2016-02-01

To develop decision trees predicting for tumor volume reduction in patients with head and neck (H&N) cancer using pretreatment clinical and pathological parameters. Forty-eight patients treated with definitive concurrent chemoradiotherapy for squamous cell carcinoma of the nasopharynx, oropharynx, oral cavity, or hypopharynx were retrospectively analyzed. These patients were rescanned at a median dose of 37.8 Gy and replanned to account for anatomical changes. The percentages of gross tumor volume (GTV) change from initial to rescan computed tomography (CT; %GTVΔ) were calculated. Two decision trees were generated to correlate %GTVΔ in primary and nodal volumes with 14 characteristics including age, gender, Karnofsky performance status (KPS), site, human papilloma virus (HPV) status, tumor grade, primary tumor growth pattern (endophytic/exophytic), tumor/nodal/group stages, chemotherapy regimen, and primary, nodal, and total GTV volumes in the initial CT scan. The C4.5 Decision Tree induction algorithm was implemented. The median %GTVΔ for primary, nodal, and total GTVs was 26.8%, 43.0%, and 31.2%, respectively. Type of chemotherapy, age, primary tumor growth pattern, site, KPS, and HPV status were the most predictive parameters for primary %GTVΔ decision tree, whereas for nodal %GTVΔ, KPS, site, age, primary tumor growth pattern, initial primary GTV, and total GTV volumes were predictive. Both decision trees had an accuracy of 88%. There can be significant changes in primary and nodal tumor volumes during the course of H&N chemoradiotherapy. Considering the proposed decision trees, radiation oncologists can select patients predicted to have high %GTVΔ, who would theoretically gain the most benefit from adaptive radiotherapy, in order to better use limited clinical resources. © The Author(s) 2015.

Cultural and linguistic adaptation of a multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latinos.

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Ko, Linda K; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

2014-01-01

As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse, vulnerable populations, including Latinos. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists often face the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. The authors describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish-language version of an evidence-based (English language) multimedia colorectal cancer screening decision aid. The multistep process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. The authors integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. They describe how they used this process to identify and integrate sociocultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish-language decision aid.

A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields

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Bagarello, F.; Haven, E.; Khrennikov, A.

2017-10-01

We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme. This article is part of the themed issue `Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'.

A model of adaptive decision-making from representation of information environment by quantum fields.

Science.gov (United States)

Bagarello, F; Haven, E; Khrennikov, A

2017-11-13

We present the mathematical model of decision-making (DM) of agents acting in a complex and uncertain environment (combining huge variety of economical, financial, behavioural and geopolitical factors). To describe interaction of agents with it, we apply the formalism of quantum field theory (QTF). Quantum fields are a purely informational nature. The QFT model can be treated as a far relative of the expected utility theory, where the role of utility is played by adaptivity to an environment (bath). However, this sort of utility-adaptivity cannot be represented simply as a numerical function. The operator representation in Hilbert space is used and adaptivity is described as in quantum dynamics. We are especially interested in stabilization of solutions for sufficiently large time. The outputs of this stabilization process, probabilities for possible choices, are treated in the framework of classical DM. To connect classical and quantum DM, we appeal to Quantum Bayesianism. We demonstrate the quantum-like interference effect in DM, which is exhibited as a violation of the formula of total probability, and hence the classical Bayesian inference scheme.This article is part of the themed issue 'Second quantum revolution: foundational questions'. © 2017 The Author(s).

Adaptive Iterative Soft-Input Soft-Output Parallel Decision-Feedback Detectors for Asynchronous Coded DS-CDMA Systems

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Zhang Wei

2005-01-01

Full Text Available The optimum and many suboptimum iterative soft-input soft-output (SISO multiuser detectors require a priori information about the multiuser system, such as the users' transmitted signature waveforms, relative delays, as well as the channel impulse response. In this paper, we employ adaptive algorithms in the SISO multiuser detector in order to avoid the need for this a priori information. First, we derive the optimum SISO parallel decision-feedback detector for asynchronous coded DS-CDMA systems. Then, we propose two adaptive versions of this SISO detector, which are based on the normalized least mean square (NLMS and recursive least squares (RLS algorithms. Our SISO adaptive detectors effectively exploit the a priori information of coded symbols, whose soft inputs are obtained from a bank of single-user decoders. Furthermore, we consider how to select practical finite feedforward and feedback filter lengths to obtain a good tradeoff between the performance and computational complexity of the receiver.

[Adapting and validating the generic instrument CollaboRATE™ to measure women's participation in health related decision-making during the reproductive process].

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Bravo, Paulina; Contreras, Aixa; Dois, Angelina; Villarroel, Luis

2018-05-01

There is a worldwide interest in involving patients in health related decisions, so patients can actively search for therapeutic options and choose course of action that allows them to have better quality of life and wellbeing. The majority of the instruments available to capture the degree of participation in medical decision-making are in English and have been developed in high income countries. To adapt and validate for the Chilean context the instrument CollaboRATE™, to measure women's participation in medical decisions during the reproductive process. Cross-sectional study to adapt and validate the instrument CollaboRATE™. Maternity units in Santiago, Chile. Puerperal women in maternity units of three public hospitals. Translation and back-translation, cultural and linguistic relevance with service users and final revision by experts. Study for validation with 90 puerperal women. The Chilean version of CollaboRATE™ demonstrated to be a reliable instrument to capture the degree of patients' participation in medical decision-making. Cronbach alpha was above 0.89. This study provides the first instrument to capture the prevalence of SDM in a Latin American country. This instrument will be critical in future research efforts that seek to explore to what extent people are being involved in the decisions related to their healthcare. Copyright © 2017. Publicado por Elsevier España, S.L.U.

European Portuguese adaptation and validation of dilemmas used to assess moral decision-making.

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Fernandes, Carina; Gonçalves, Ana Ribeiro; Pasion, Rita; Ferreira-Santos, Fernando; Paiva, Tiago Oliveira; Melo E Castro, Joana; Barbosa, Fernando; Martins, Isabel Pavão; Marques-Teixeira, João

2018-03-01

Objective To adapt and validate a widely used set of moral dilemmas to European Portuguese, which can be applied to assess decision-making. Moreover, the classical formulation of the dilemmas was compared with a more focused moral probe. Finally, a shorter version of the moral scenarios was tested. Methods The Portuguese version of the set of moral dilemmas was tested in 53 individuals from several regions of Portugal. In a second study, an alternative way of questioning on moral dilemmas was tested in 41 participants. Finally, the shorter version of the moral dilemmas was tested in 137 individuals. Results Results evidenced no significant differences between English and Portuguese versions. Also, asking whether actions are "morally acceptable" elicited less utilitarian responses than the original question, although without reaching statistical significance. Finally, all tested versions of moral dilemmas exhibited the same pattern of responses, suggesting that the fundamental elements to the moral decision-making were preserved. Conclusions We found evidence of cross-cultural validity for moral dilemmas. However, the moral focus might affect utilitarian/deontological judgments.

European Portuguese adaptation and validation of dilemmas used to assess moral decision-making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Carina Fernandes

2018-04-01

Full Text Available Abstract Objective To adapt and validate a widely used set of moral dilemmas to European Portuguese, which can be applied to assess decision-making. Moreover, the classical formulation of the dilemmas was compared with a more focused moral probe. Finally, a shorter version of the moral scenarios was tested. Methods The Portuguese version of the set of moral dilemmas was tested in 53 individuals from several regions of Portugal. In a second study, an alternative way of questioning on moral dilemmas was tested in 41 participants. Finally, the shorter version of the moral dilemmas was tested in 137 individuals. Results Results evidenced no significant differences between English and Portuguese versions. Also, asking whether actions are “morally acceptable” elicited less utilitarian responses than the original question, although without reaching statistical significance. Finally, all tested versions of moral dilemmas exhibited the same pattern of responses, suggesting that the fundamental elements to the moral decision-making were preserved. Conclusions We found evidence of cross-cultural validity for moral dilemmas. However, the moral focus might affect utilitarian/deontological judgments.

Cultural and Linguistic Adaptation of a Multimedia Colorectal Cancer Screening Decision Aid for Spanish Speaking Latinos

Science.gov (United States)

Ko, Linda K.; Reuland, Daniel; Jolles, Monica; Clay, Rebecca; Pignone, Michael

2014-01-01

As the United States becomes more linguistically and culturally diverse, there is a need for effective health communication interventions that target diverse and most vulnerable populations. Latinos also have the lowest colorectal (CRC) screening rates of any ethnic group in the U.S. To address such disparities, health communication interventionists are often faced with the challenge to adapt existing interventions from English into Spanish in a way that retains essential elements of the original intervention while also addressing the linguistic needs and cultural perspectives of the target population. We describe the conceptual framework, context, rationale, methods, and findings of a formative research process used in creating a Spanish language version of an evidenced-based (English language) multimedia CRC screening decision aid. Our multi-step process included identification of essential elements of the existing intervention, literature review, assessment of the regional context and engagement of key stakeholders, and solicitation of direct input from target population. We integrated these findings in the creation of the new adapted intervention. We describe how we used this process to identify and integrate socio-cultural themes such as personalism (personalismo), familism (familismo), fear (miedo), embarrassment (verguenza), power distance (respeto), machismo, and trust (confianza) into the Spanish language decision aid. PMID:24328496

Adaptive decision making in multi-stakeholder retail planning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, I.I.

2011-01-01

The decision where to locate new retail facilities is increasingly more a multi-stakeholder decision instead of a single-actor decision. In the past, the Dutch Government had a strong hand in determining the program and location for new shopping centres. Since the introduction of the newest national

Repeated causal decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Hagmayer, York; Meder, Björn

2013-01-01

Many of our decisions refer to actions that have a causal impact on the external environment. Such actions may not only allow for the mere learning of expected values or utilities but also for acquiring knowledge about the causal structure of our world. We used a repeated decision-making paradigm to examine what kind of knowledge people acquire in such situations and how they use their knowledge to adapt to changes in the decision context. Our studies show that decision makers' behavior is strongly contingent on their causal beliefs and that people exploit their causal knowledge to assess the consequences of changes in the decision problem. A high consistency between hypotheses about causal structure, causally expected values, and actual choices was observed. The experiments show that (a) existing causal hypotheses guide the interpretation of decision feedback, (b) consequences of decisions are used to revise existing causal beliefs, and (c) decision makers use the experienced feedback to induce a causal model of the choice situation even when they have no initial causal hypotheses, which (d) enables them to adapt their choices to changes of the decision problem. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved).

Behavioural mechanisms and adaptation to climate change

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Nigussie, Yalemzewd

2017-01-01

The literature on climate change adaptation in developing countries focused on the socioeconomic and demographic determinants of adaptation decisions to climate change. Decision behavioural among others is thought to influence the path of innovation uptake related to climate change. We need to

Adaptive management of natural resources-framework and issues

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Williams, B.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management, an approach for simultaneously managing and learning about natural resources, has been around for several decades. Interest in adaptive decision making has grown steadily over that time, and by now many in natural resources conservation claim that adaptive management is the approach they use in meeting their resource management responsibilities. Yet there remains considerable ambiguity about what adaptive management actually is, and how it is to be implemented by practitioners. The objective of this paper is to present a framework and conditions for adaptive decision making, and discuss some important challenges in its application. Adaptive management is described as a two-phase process of deliberative and iterative phases, which are implemented sequentially over the timeframe of an application. Key elements, processes, and issues in adaptive decision making are highlighted in terms of this framework. Special emphasis is given to the question of geographic scale, the difficulties presented by non-stationarity, and organizational challenges in implementing adaptive management. ?? 2010.

Towards context adaptive privacy decisions in ubiquitous computing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Schaub, Florian; Könings, Bastian; Weber, M.; Kargl, Frank

2012-01-01

In ubiquitous systems control of privacy settings will be increasingly difficult due to the pervasive nature of sensing and communication capabilities. We identify challenges for privacy decisions in ubiquitous systems and propose a system for in situ privacy decision support. When context changes

mPLR-Loc: an adaptive decision multi-label classifier based on penalized logistic regression for protein subcellular localization prediction.

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Wan, Shibiao; Mak, Man-Wai; Kung, Sun-Yuan

2015-03-15

Proteins located in appropriate cellular compartments are of paramount importance to exert their biological functions. Prediction of protein subcellular localization by computational methods is required in the post-genomic era. Recent studies have been focusing on predicting not only single-location proteins but also multi-location proteins. However, most of the existing predictors are far from effective for tackling the challenges of multi-label proteins. This article proposes an efficient multi-label predictor, namely mPLR-Loc, based on penalized logistic regression and adaptive decisions for predicting both single- and multi-location proteins. Specifically, for each query protein, mPLR-Loc exploits the information from the Gene Ontology (GO) database by using its accession number (AC) or the ACs of its homologs obtained via BLAST. The frequencies of GO occurrences are used to construct feature vectors, which are then classified by an adaptive decision-based multi-label penalized logistic regression classifier. Experimental results based on two recent stringent benchmark datasets (virus and plant) show that mPLR-Loc remarkably outperforms existing state-of-the-art multi-label predictors. In addition to being able to rapidly and accurately predict subcellular localization of single- and multi-label proteins, mPLR-Loc can also provide probabilistic confidence scores for the prediction decisions. For readers' convenience, the mPLR-Loc server is available online (http://bioinfo.eie.polyu.edu.hk/mPLRLocServer). Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Climate Change Adaptation Decision Making for Glacial Lake Outburst Floods From Palcacocha Lake in Peru

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Cuellar, A. D.; McKinney, D. C.

2014-12-01

Climate change has accelerated glacial retreat in high altitude glaciated regions of Peru leading to the growth and formation of glacier lakes. Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOF) are sudden events triggered by an earthquake, avalanche into the lake or other shock that causes a sudden outflow of water. These floods are catastrophic because of their sudden onset, the difficulty predicting them, and enormous quantity of water and debris rapidly flooding downstream areas. Palcacocha Lake in the Peruvian Andes has experienced accelerated growth since it burst in 1941 and threatens the major city of Huaraz and surrounding communities. Since the 1941 flood stakeholders have advocated for projects to adapt to the increasing threat posed by Palcacocha Lake. Nonetheless, discussions surrounding projects for Palcacocha have not included a rigorous analysis of the potential consequences of a flood, probability of an event, or costs of mitigation projects. This work presents the first step to rationally analyze the risks posed by Palcacocha Lake and the various adaptation projects proposed. In this work the authors use decision analysis to asses proposed adaptation measures that would mitigate damage in downstream communities from a GLOF. We use an existing hydrodynamic model of the at-risk area to determine how adaptation projects will affect downstream flooding. Flood characteristics are used in the HEC-FIA software to estimate fatalities and injuries from an outburst flood, which we convert to monetary units using the value of a statistical life. We combine the monetary consequences of a GLOF with the cost of the proposed projects and a diffuse probability distribution for the likelihood of an event to estimate the expected cost of the adaptation plans. From this analysis we found that lowering the lake level by 15 meters has the least expected cost of any proposal despite uncertainty in the effect of lake lowering on flooding downstream.

Economics of Climate Change Adaptation | IDRC - International ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Literature on the economics of climate change adaptation - especially in developing countries - is generally scarce, and this weakens the premise on which adaptation decisions are made. Moreover, there is no standard framework or toolkit to guide researchers and policymakers in this kind of decision-making. This grant ...

Application of stakeholder-based and modelling approaches for supporting robust adaptation decision making under future climatic uncertainty and changing urban-agricultural water demand

Science.gov (United States)

Bhave, Ajay; Dessai, Suraje; Conway, Declan; Stainforth, David

2016-04-01

Deep uncertainty in future climate change and socio-economic conditions necessitates the use of assess-risk-of-policy approaches over predict-then-act approaches for adaptation decision making. Robust Decision Making (RDM) approaches embody this principle and help evaluate the ability of adaptation options to satisfy stakeholder preferences under wide-ranging future conditions. This study involves the simultaneous application of two RDM approaches; qualitative and quantitative, in the Cauvery River Basin in Karnataka (population ~23 million), India. The study aims to (a) determine robust water resources adaptation options for the 2030s and 2050s and (b) compare the usefulness of a qualitative stakeholder-driven approach with a quantitative modelling approach. For developing a large set of future scenarios a combination of climate narratives and socio-economic narratives was used. Using structured expert elicitation with a group of climate experts in the Indian Summer Monsoon, climatic narratives were developed. Socio-economic narratives were developed to reflect potential future urban and agricultural water demand. In the qualitative RDM approach, a stakeholder workshop helped elicit key vulnerabilities, water resources adaptation options and performance criteria for evaluating options. During a second workshop, stakeholders discussed and evaluated adaptation options against the performance criteria for a large number of scenarios of climatic and socio-economic change in the basin. In the quantitative RDM approach, a Water Evaluation And Planning (WEAP) model was forced by precipitation and evapotranspiration data, coherent with the climatic narratives, together with water demand data based on socio-economic narratives. We find that compared to business-as-usual conditions options addressing urban water demand satisfy performance criteria across scenarios and provide co-benefits like energy savings and reduction in groundwater depletion, while options reducing

An adaptive decision framework for the conservation of a threatened plant

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Moore, Clinton T.; Fonnesbeck, Christopher J.; Shea, Katriona; Lah, Kristopher J.; McKenzie, Paul M.; Ball, Lianne C.; Runge, Michael C.; Alexander, Helen M.

2011-01-01

Mead's milkweed Asclepias meadii, a long-lived perennial herb of tallgrass prairie and glade communities of the central United States, is a species designated as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act. Challenges to its successful management include the facts that much about its life history is unknown, its age at reproductive maturity is very advanced, certain life stages are practically unobservable, its productivity is responsive to unpredictable environmental events, and most of the known populations occur on private lands unprotected by any legal conservation instrument. One critical source of biological uncertainty is the degree to which fire promotes growth and reproductive response in the plant. To aid in its management, we developed a prototype population-level state-dependent decision-making framework that explicitly accounts for this uncertainty and for uncertainties related to stochastic environmental effects and vital rates. To parameterize the decision model, we used estimates found in the literature, and we analyzed data from a long-term monitoring program where fates of individual plants were observed through time. We demonstrate that different optimal courses of action are followed according to how one believes that fire influences reproductive response, and we show that the action taken for certain population states is informative for resolving uncertainty about competing beliefs regarding the effect of fire. We advocate the use of a model-predictive approach for the management of rare populations, particularly when management uncertainty is profound. Over time, an adaptive management approach should reduce uncertainty and improve management performance as predictions of management outcome generated under competing models are continually informed and updated by monitoring data.

Situating adaptation: How governance challenges and perceptions of uncertainty influence adaptation in the Rocky Mountains

Science.gov (United States)

Carina Wyborn; Laurie Yung; Daniel Murphy; Daniel R. Williams

2015-01-01

Adaptation is situated within multiple, interacting social, political, and economic forces. Adaptation pathways envision adaptation as a continual pathway of change and response embedded within this broader sociopolitical context. Pathways emphasize that current decisions are both informed by past actions and shape the landscape of future options. This research...

Integrating adaptive governance and participatory multicriteria methods: a framework for climate adaptation governance

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Munaretto, S.; Siciliano, G.; Turvani, M.

2014-01-01

Climate adaptation is a dynamic social and institutional process where the governance dimension is receiving growing attention. Adaptive governance is an approach that promises to reduce uncertainty by improving the knowledge base for decision making. As uncertainty is an inherent feature of climate

Adaptive Rationality, Adaptive Behavior and Institutions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Volchik Vyacheslav, V.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available The economic literature focused on understanding decision-making and choice processes reveals a vast collection of approaches to human rationality. Theorists’ attention has moved from absolutely rational, utility-maximizing individuals to boundedly rational and adaptive ones. A number of economists have criticized the concepts of adaptive rationality and adaptive behavior. One of the recent trends in the economic literature is to consider humans irrational. This paper offers an approach which examines adaptive behavior in the context of existing institutions and constantly changing institutional environment. It is assumed that adaptive behavior is a process of evolutionary adjustment to fundamental uncertainty. We emphasize the importance of actors’ engagement in trial and error learning, since if they are involved in this process, they obtain experience and are able to adapt to existing and new institutions. The paper aims at identifying relevant institutions, adaptive mechanisms, informal working rules and practices that influence actors’ behavior in the field of Higher Education in Russia (Rostov Region education services market has been taken as an example. The paper emphasizes the application of qualitative interpretative methods (interviews and discourse analysis in examining actors’ behavior.

Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources

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Yu-Ting Liu

2017-06-01

Full Text Available A brain-computer interface (BCI creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This

Fuzzy Decision-Making Fuser (FDMF) for Integrating Human-Machine Autonomous (HMA) Systems with Adaptive Evidence Sources.

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Yu-Ting; Pal, Nikhil R; Marathe, Amar R; Wang, Yu-Kai; Lin, Chin-Teng

2017-01-01

A brain-computer interface (BCI) creates a direct communication pathway between the human brain and an external device or system. In contrast to patient-oriented BCIs, which are intended to restore inoperative or malfunctioning aspects of the nervous system, a growing number of BCI studies focus on designing auxiliary systems that are intended for everyday use. The goal of building these BCIs is to provide capabilities that augment existing intact physical and mental capabilities. However, a key challenge to BCI research is human variability; factors such as fatigue, inattention, and stress vary both across different individuals and for the same individual over time. If these issues are addressed, autonomous systems may provide additional benefits that enhance system performance and prevent problems introduced by individual human variability. This study proposes a human-machine autonomous (HMA) system that simultaneously aggregates human and machine knowledge to recognize targets in a rapid serial visual presentation (RSVP) task. The HMA focuses on integrating an RSVP BCI with computer vision techniques in an image-labeling domain. A fuzzy decision-making fuser (FDMF) is then applied in the HMA system to provide a natural adaptive framework for evidence-based inference by incorporating an integrated summary of the available evidence (i.e., human and machine decisions) and associated uncertainty. Consequently, the HMA system dynamically aggregates decisions involving uncertainties from both human and autonomous agents. The collaborative decisions made by an HMA system can achieve and maintain superior performance more efficiently than either the human or autonomous agents can achieve independently. The experimental results shown in this study suggest that the proposed HMA system with the FDMF can effectively fuse decisions from human brain activities and the computer vision techniques to improve overall performance on the RSVP recognition task. This conclusion

Understanding climate change adaptation and adaptive capacity: synthesis report

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Patino, L. [Policy Research Initiative, Government of Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada)

2010-09-15

In 2007, the Natural Resources Canada (NRCan) Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Division (CCIAD) offered its support to research projects that were involved in understanding and improving adaptation and adaptive capacity and contributed to climate change decision-making and policy development in Canada. 20 research projects were commissioned by the CCIAD. With the collaboration of NRCan, the principal findings raised by the commissioned projects were synthesized by the Policy Research Initiative (PRI). Common themes and main messages are introduced in this synthesis report, and policy and program aspects that promote adaptive capacity to climate change in Canada are identified. Common themes and important messages emerging from the research projects, as well as the processes and barriers to adaptation and adaptive capacity identified in the commissioned projects, were discussed during a workshop held in Ottawa in 2009. Five main themes and four common barriers to adaptation were found. 25 refs.

The Formation of Rational and Irrational Behaviors in Risky Investment Decision Making: Laboratory Experiment of Coping Theory Implication in Investors’ Adaptation Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wendy Wendy

2014-08-01

Full Text Available This study analyzes the stock investor's rational and irrational behavior formation through Investor's Adaptation model. Hypotheses testings were conducted by manipulating four market conditions using between-subject experimental design. The results supported the hypotheses proposed in this study. When given treatment one (opportunity-high control, investors tended to adapt the profit maximizing strategy (rational. Meanwhile, when given treatment two (opportunity-low control, three (threat-high control and four (threat-low control, they tended to adapt the profit satisfying strategy (rational-emotional, bad news handling strategy (emotional-rational, and self-preserving strategy (irrational respectively. The application of rational strategies are intended to obtain personal benefits and profit, while adapting irrational strategy is intended to recover emotional stability and reduce some other tensions. Another finding showed that for the investors, the relatively irrational decision formation was "harder" than that of rational.

Adaptation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire to Brazilian Portuguese.

Science.gov (United States)

Cotrena, Charles; Branco, Laura Damiani; Fonseca, Rochele Paz

2018-03-01

Decision making (DM) is among the most important abilities for everyday functioning. However, the most widely used measures of DM come from behavioral paradigms, whose ecological validity and standalone use has been criticized in the literature. Though these issues could be addressed by the use of DM questionnaires as a complementary assessment method, no such instruments have been validated for use in Brazilian Portuguese. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct the translation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (MDMQ) for use in a Brazilian population. The adaptation of the MDMQ involved the following steps: translation, back-translation, expert review and pilot study. These steps were followed by factor analysis and internal consistency measurements, which led to the exclusion of 4 items from the scale. The 18-item version of the MDMQ was then administered to a validation sample consisting of healthy adults, as well as patients with bipolar disorder (BD) and major depressive disorder (MDD). The instrument displayed good internal consistency, with the hypervigilance subscale showing the lowest, though still acceptable, Cronbach's alpha value. Its factor structure was comparable to that of the original MDMQ according to confirmatory factor analysis. Nevertheless, the MDMQ was sensitive to both depression severity and the presence of MDD and BD, both of which are known to have an impact on DM ability. The version of the MDMQ produced in the present study may be an important addition to neuropsychological assessment batteries with a focus on DM and related abilities.

Adaptation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire to Brazilian Portuguese

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charles Cotrena

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Introduction: Decision making (DM is among the most important abilities for everyday functioning. However, the most widely used measures of DM come from behavioral paradigms, whose ecological validity and standalone use has been criticized in the literature. Though these issues could be addressed by the use of DM questionnaires as a complementary assessment method, no such instruments have been validated for use in Brazilian Portuguese. Therefore, the aim of this study was to conduct the translation and validation of the Melbourne Decision Making Questionnaire (MDMQ for use in a Brazilian population. Methods: The adaptation of the MDMQ involved the following steps: translation, back-translation, expert review and pilot study. These steps were followed by factor analysis and internal consistency measurements, which led to the exclusion of 4 items from the scale. The 18-item version of the MDMQ was then administered to a validation sample consisting of healthy adults, as well as patients with bipolar disorder (BD and major depressive disorder (MDD. Results: The instrument displayed good internal consistency, with the hypervigilance subscale showing the lowest, though still acceptable, Cronbach's alpha value. Its factor structure was comparable to that of the original MDMQ according to confirmatory factor analysis. Nevertheless, the MDMQ was sensitive to both depression severity and the presence of MDD and BD, both of which are known to have an impact on DM ability. Conclusion: The version of the MDMQ produced in the present study may be an important addition to neuropsychological assessment batteries with a focus on DM and related abilities

Farmers' climate information needs for long-term adaptive decisions: A case study of almonds in CA

Science.gov (United States)

Jagannathan, K. A.; Jones, A. D.; Pathak, T. B.; Kerr, A. C.; Doll, D.

2016-12-01

Despite advances in climate modeling and projections, several sources report that current tools and models are not widely used in the agriculture sector. Farmers, depending on their local context, require information on very specific climatic metrics such as start of rains during the planting season, number of low temperature days during the growing season, etc. However, such specific climatic information is either not available, and/or is not synthesized and communicated in a manner that is accessible to these decision-makers. This research aims to bridge the gap between climate information and decision-making needs, by providing an improved understanding of what farmers' consider as relevant climate information, and how these needs compare with current modeling capabilities. Almond is a perennial crop, so any changes in climate within its 25-30 year lifetime can have an adverse impact on crop yield. This makes almond growers vulnerable to medium and long-term climate change. Hence, providing appropriate information on future climate projections can help guide their decisions on crop types & varieties, as well as management practices that are better adapted to future climatic conditions. Semi-structured exploratory interviews have been conducted with almond growers, farm advisors, and other industry stakeholders, with three goals: (1) to understand how growers have used climate information in the past; (2) to identify key climatic variables that are relevant - including appropriate temporal scales and acceptable uncertainty levels; and (3) to understand communication methods that could improve the usability of climate information for farm-level decision-making. The interviews showcased a great diversity amongst growers in terms of how they used weather/climate information. Discussions also indicated that there was a potential for climate information to impact long-term decisions, but only if it is provided within the right context, terminology, and communication

Adapting the SLIM diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting: joint decision making by science and practice.

Science.gov (United States)

Jansen, Sophia C; Haveman-Nies, Annemien; Duijzer, Geerke; Ter Beek, Josien; Hiddink, Gerrit J; Feskens, Edith J M

2013-05-08

Although many evidence-based diabetes prevention interventions exist, they are not easily applicable in real-life settings. Moreover, there is a lack of examples which describe the adaptation process of these interventions to practice. In this paper we present an example of such an adaptation. We adapted the SLIM (Study on Lifestyle intervention and Impaired glucose tolerance Maastricht) diabetes prevention intervention to a Dutch real-life setting, in a joint decision making process of intervention developers and local health care professionals. We used 3 adaptation steps in accordance with current adaptation frameworks. In the first step, the elements of the SLIM intervention were identified. In the second step, these elements were judged for their applicability in a real-life setting. In the third step, adaptations were proposed and discussed for those elements which were deemed not applicable. Participants invited for this process included intervention developers and local health care professionals (n=19). In the first adaptation step, a total of 22 intervention elements were identified. In the second step, 12 of these 22 intervention elements were judged as inapplicable. In the third step, a consensus was achieved for the adaptations of all 12 elements. The adapted elements were in the following categories: target population, techniques, intensity, delivery mode, materials, organisational structure, and political and financial conditions. The adaptations either lay in changing the SLIM protocol (6 elements) or the real-life working procedures (1 element), or a combination of both (4 elements). The positive result of this study is that a consensus was achieved within a relatively short time period (nine months) between the developers of the SLIM intervention and local health care professionals on the adaptations needed to make SLIM applicable in a Dutch real-life setting. Our example shows that it is possible to combine the perspectives of scientists and

Usability evaluation and adaptation of the e-health Personal Patient Profile-Prostate decision aid for Spanish-speaking Latino men.

Science.gov (United States)

Berry, Donna L; Halpenny, Barbara; Bosco, Jaclyn L F; Bruyere, John; Sanda, Martin G

2015-07-24

The Personal Patient Profile-Prostate (P3P), a web-based decision aid, was demonstrated to reduce decisional conflict in English-speaking men with localized prostate cancer early after initial diagnosis. The purpose of this study was to explore and enhance usability and cultural appropriateness of a Spanish P3P by Latino men with a diagnosis of prostate cancer. P3P was translated to Spanish and back-translated by three native Spanish-speaking translators working independently. Spanish-speaking Latino men with a diagnosis of localized prostate cancer, who had made treatment decisions in the past 24 months, were recruited from two urban clinical care sites. Individual cognitive interviews were conducted by two bilingual research assistants as each participant used the Spanish P3P. Notes of user behavior, feedback, and answers to direct questions about comprehension, usability and perceived usefulness were analyzed and categorized. Seven participants with a range of education levels identified 25 unique usability issues in navigation, content comprehension and completeness, sociocultural appropriateness, and methodology. Revisions were prioritized to refine the usability and cultural and linguistic appropriateness of the decision aid. Usability issues were discovered that are potential barriers to effective decision support. Successful use of decision aids requires adaptation and testing beyond translation. Our findings led to revisions further refining the usability and linguistic and cultural appropriateness of Spanish P3P.

Evaluation Within the Scope of Standa rdization and Adaptation of the Product Decisions Strategies Implemented by Unilever Knorr in the Turkish Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Begüm Şahin

2014-12-01

Full Text Available The various product strategies that businesses operating in international markets have developed by prioritizing customer satisfaction also includes the product standardization and adaptation strategies. These strategies are shaped by the influence of the international market environment, which involves a different set of dynamics. Marketing managers take decisions concerning the extent to which standardization and adaptation will be utilized by first conducting detailed analyses regarding the various factors associated with the countries they are trying to appeal to. In recent years, the strategy mainly adopted by businesses when taking product decision in global markets is the “think global act local” approach –in other words, the glocal approach. Owing to the approach, many businesses operating in global markets are able to continuously increase their effectiveness and share in markets, and to thereby become winners through successful efforts.In this context, the aim of this study was to examine and evaluate, within the scope of standardization and adaptation, the product strategies implemented in the Turkish market by Knorr, a successful brand in the food industry, for its dry soup products. Knorr is also one of the businesses of Unilever, a company that occupies an important place in the global market, and also represents the world’s largest fast moving consumer good company. Data obtained during the study through in-depth interviews performed with two senior managers of the company have shown that Knorr adopts the mixed approach known as glocalization for its dry soup products,which involves a combination of both adaptation and standardization

Making Sustainable Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piet, Steven James; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Dakins, Maxine Ellen

2003-02-01

Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. “Cleanup” includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done - some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches, including: • New ways (mental model) to analyze and visualize the problem, • Awareness of the option to shift strategy or reframe from a single decision to an adaptable network of decisions, and • Improved tactical processes that account for several challenges. These include the following: • Stakeholder values are a more fundamental basis for decision making and keeping than “meeting regulations.” • Late-entry players and future generations will question decisions. • People may resist making “irreversible” decisions. • People need “compelling reasons” to take action in the face of uncertainties. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period—from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept “as is” or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: • Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? • Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? • Resources: what is available to implement

A P2P Botnet detection scheme based on decision tree and adaptive multilayer neural networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Alauthaman, Mohammad; Aslam, Nauman; Zhang, Li; Alasem, Rafe; Hossain, M A

2018-01-01

In recent years, Botnets have been adopted as a popular method to carry and spread many malicious codes on the Internet. These malicious codes pave the way to execute many fraudulent activities including spam mail, distributed denial-of-service attacks and click fraud. While many Botnets are set up using centralized communication architecture, the peer-to-peer (P2P) Botnets can adopt a decentralized architecture using an overlay network for exchanging command and control data making their detection even more difficult. This work presents a method of P2P Bot detection based on an adaptive multilayer feed-forward neural network in cooperation with decision trees. A classification and regression tree is applied as a feature selection technique to select relevant features. With these features, a multilayer feed-forward neural network training model is created using a resilient back-propagation learning algorithm. A comparison of feature set selection based on the decision tree, principal component analysis and the ReliefF algorithm indicated that the neural network model with features selection based on decision tree has a better identification accuracy along with lower rates of false positives. The usefulness of the proposed approach is demonstrated by conducting experiments on real network traffic datasets. In these experiments, an average detection rate of 99.08 % with false positive rate of 0.75 % was observed.

The Adaptability of Career Decision-Making Profiles: Associations with Self-Efficacy, Emotional Difficulties, and Decision Status

Science.gov (United States)

Gadassi, Reuma; Gati, Itamar; Wagman-Rolnick, Halleli

2013-01-01

The present study investigated a new model for characterizing the way individuals make career decisions (career decision-making profiles [CDMP]). Using data from 285 students in a preacademic program, the present study assessed the association of the CDMP's dimensions with the Emotional and Personality-related Career decision-making Difficulties…

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J.B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

2017-01-01

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states' parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized 'adaptive management track' of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

Decision making in specialist forensic psychiatric (the psychological aspect

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shmakova E.V.

2016-06-01

Full Text Available The article presents the results of a study of psychological factors of decision making amongforensic psychiatric specialists. Given the survey data of10 medical psychologists and 10 psychiatrists carrying out compulsory treatment in the psychiatric hospital №5, Moscow Department of Public Health, in comparison with the control group, consisting of professionals working in the field of education, manufacturing, services and technology. Methodical complex included: 1. The Epstein questionnaire of the intuitive style (adaptation Kornilova T. V., Kornilov S. A.; A new questionnaire of tolerance/intolerance to uncertainty (Kornilova T. V.; Melbourne questionnaire of decision making (adaptation T. V.Kornilova; The questionnaire «Personal factors of decision making»(T.V. Kornilova; TheV. Smecalo and V. M. Kucher method; The Tsvetkova Method; 7. The questionnaire «Styles of thinking» by R. Bramsonand Harrison (adaptation of A. A. Alekseev; 8.The questionnaire «Scale of base convictions» (R.Yanov-Boulemane, adaptation M.A. Padun, A.V. Kotelnikov; 9. The check-list aimed to identify the type of decisions taken by the expert in professional activity, their frequency, importance, subjective evaluation is necessary for decision making qualities and to evaluate the most significant opinions of other persons in the decision-making process. There were defined the characteristics of decision making depending on gender. The relationships between type of activity and frequency of occurrence of different types of decisions in professional activities of specialists were revealed. Analyzed the relationship between consideration of the views of others when making decisions and activity.

Variation in Hospital Length of Stay : Do Physicians Adapt Their Length of Stay Decisions to What Is Usual in the Hospital Where They Work?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jong, Judith D. de; Westert, Gert P.; Lagoe, Ronald; Groenewegen, Peter P.

2006-01-01

Objective. To test the hypothesis that physicianswho work in different hospitals adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital under consideration. Data Sources. Secondary data were used, originating from the Statewide Planning and ResearchCooperative System (SPARCS). SPARCS

Variation in hospital length of stay: do physicians adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital where they work?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Jong, J.D. de; Westert, G.P.; Lagoe, R.; Groenewegen, P.P.

2006-01-01

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that physicians who work in different hospitals adapt their length of stay decisions to what is usual in the hospital under consideration. DATA SOURCES: Secondary data were used, originating from the Statewide Planning and Research Cooperative System (SPARCS).

Adaptive Automation Based on Air Traffic Controller Decision-Making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

IJtsma (Student TU Delft), Martijn; Borst, C.; Mercado Velasco, G.A.; Mulder, M.; van Paassen, M.M.; Tsang, P.S.; Vidulich, M.A.

2017-01-01

Through smart scheduling and triggering of automation support, adaptive automation has the potential to balance air traffic controller workload. The challenge in the design of adaptive automation systems is to decide how and when the automation should provide support. This paper describes the design

A Novel Clinical Decision Support System Using Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm for the Assessment of Fetal Well-Being

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sindhu Ravindran

2015-01-01

Full Text Available A novel clinical decision support system is proposed in this paper for evaluating the fetal well-being from the cardiotocogram (CTG dataset through an Improved Adaptive Genetic Algorithm (IAGA and Extreme Learning Machine (ELM. IAGA employs a new scaling technique (called sigma scaling to avoid premature convergence and applies adaptive crossover and mutation techniques with masking concepts to enhance population diversity. Also, this search algorithm utilizes three different fitness functions (two single objective fitness functions and multi-objective fitness function to assess its performance. The classification results unfold that promising classification accuracy of 94% is obtained with an optimal feature subset using IAGA. Also, the classification results are compared with those of other Feature Reduction techniques to substantiate its exhaustive search towards the global optimum. Besides, five other benchmark datasets are used to gauge the strength of the proposed IAGA algorithm.

Adaptation to Climate change Impacts on the Mediterranean islands' Agriculture (ADAPT2CLIMA)

Science.gov (United States)

Giannakopoulos, Christos; Karali, Anna; Lemesios, Giannis; Loizidou, Maria; Papadaskalopoulou, Christina; Moustakas, Konstantinos; Papadopoulou, Maria; Moriondo, Marco; Markou, Marinos; Hatziyanni, Eleni; Pasotti, Luigi

2016-04-01

Agriculture is one of the economic sectors that will likely be hit hardest by climate change, since it directly depends on climatic factors such as temperature, sunlight, and precipitation. The EU LIFE ADAPT2CLIMA (http://adapt2clima.eu/en/) project aims to facilitate the development of adaptation strategies for agriculture by deploying and demonstrating an innovative decision support tool. The ADAPT2CLIMA tool will make it possible to simulate the impacts of climate change on crop production and the effectiveness of selected adaptation options in decreasing vulnerability to climate change in three Mediterranean islands, namely Crete (Greece), Sicily (Italy), and Cyprus. The islands were selected for two reasons: firstly, they figure among the most important cultivation areas at national level. Secondly, they exhibit similarities in terms of location (climate), size, climate change threats faced (coastal agriculture, own water resources), agricultural practices, and policy relevance. In particular, the tool will provide: i) climate change projections; ii) hydrological conditions related to agriculture: iii) a vulnerability assessment of selected crops; iv) an evaluation of the adaptation options identified. The project is expected to contribute significantly to increasing climate resilience of agriculture areas in Sicily, Cyprus and Crete as well as at EU and international level by: • Developing, implementing and demonstrating an innovative and interactive decision support tool (ADAPT2CLIMA tool) for adaptation planning in agriculture that estimates future climate change impacts on local water resources, as well as the climate change vulnerability of the agricultural crop production in the project areas; • Evaluating the technical and economic viability of the implementation of the ADAPT2CLIMA tool; • Developing climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture (including a monitoring plan) for the three project areas and presenting them to the competent

Making Career Decisions--A Sequential Elimination Approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Gati, Itamar

1986-01-01

Presents a model for career decision making based on the sequential elimination of occupational alternatives, an adaptation for career decisions of Tversky's (1972) elimination-by-aspects theory of choice. The expected utility approach is reviewed as a representative compensatory model for career decisions. Advantages, disadvantages, and…

Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

2003-01-01

Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases

Making Sustainable Decisions Using The KONVERGENCE Framework

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piet, S. J.; Gibson, P. L.; Joe, J. C.; Kerr, T. A.; Nitschke, R. L.; Dakins, M. E.

2003-02-25

Hundreds of contaminated facilities and sites must be cleaned up. ''Cleanup'' includes decommissioning, environmental restoration, and waste management. Cleanup can be complex, expensive, risky, and time-consuming. Decisions are often controversial, can stall or be blocked, and are sometimes re-done--some before implementation, some decades later. Making and keeping decisions with long time horizons involves special difficulties and requires new approaches. Our project goal is to make cleanup decisions easier to make, implement, keep, and sustain. By sustainability, we mean decisions that work better over the entire time-period-from when a decision is made, through implementation, to its end point. That is, alternatives that can be kept ''as is'' or adapted as circumstances change. Increased attention to sustainability and adaptability may decrease resistance to making and implementing decisions. Our KONVERGENCE framework addresses these challenges. The framework is based on a mental model that states: where Knowledge, Values, and Resources converge (the K, V, R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision. We define these areas or universes as follows: (1) Knowledge: what is known about the problem and possible solutions? (2) Values: what is important to those affected by the decision? (3) Resources: what is available to implement possible solutions or improve knowledge? This mental model helps analyze and visualize what is happening as decisions are made and kept. Why is there disagreement? Is there movement toward konvergence? Is a past decision drifting out of konvergence? The framework includes strategic improvements, i.e., expand the spectrum of alternatives to include adaptable alternatives and decision networks. It includes tactical process improvements derived from experience, values, and relevant literature. This paper includes diagnosis and medication (suggested path forward) for intractable cases.

Modeling the Construct of an Expert Evidence-Adaptive Knowledge Base for a Pressure Injury Clinical Decision Support System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Peck Chui Betty Khong

2017-07-01

Full Text Available The selection of appropriate wound products for the treatment of pressure injuries is paramount in promoting wound healing. However, nurses find it difficult to decide on the most optimal wound product(s due to limited live experiences in managing pressure injuries resulting from successfully implemented pressure injury prevention programs. The challenges of effective decision-making in wound treatments by nurses at the point of care are compounded by the yearly release of wide arrays of newly researched wound products into the consumer market. A clinical decision support system for pressure injury (PI-CDSS was built to facilitate effective decision-making and selection of optimal wound treatments. This paper describes the development of PI-CDSS with an expert knowledge base using an interactive development environment, Blaze Advisor. A conceptual framework using decision-making and decision theory, knowledge representation, and process modelling guided the construct of the PI-CDSS. This expert system has incorporated the practical and relevant decision knowledge of wound experts in assessment and wound treatments in its algorithm. The construct of the PI-CDSS is adaptive, with scalable capabilities for expansion to include other CDSSs and interoperability to interface with other existing clinical and administrative systems. The algorithm was formatively evaluated and tested for usability. The treatment modalities generated after using patient-specific assessment data were found to be consistent with the treatment plan(s proposed by the wound experts. The overall agreement exceeded 90% between the wound experts and the generated treatment modalities for the choice of wound products, instructions, and alerts. The PI-CDSS serves as a just-in-time wound treatment protocol with suggested clinical actions for nurses, based on the best evidence available.

A proposal for amending administrative law to facilitate adaptive management

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Robin K.; Ruhl, J. B.; Brown, Eleanor D.; Williams, Byron K.

2017-07-01

In this article we examine how federal agencies use adaptive management. In order for federal agencies to implement adaptive management more successfully, administrative law must adapt to adaptive management, and we propose changes in administrative law that will help to steer the current process out of a dead end. Adaptive management is a form of structured decision making that is widely used in natural resources management. It involves specific steps integrated in an iterative process for adjusting management actions as new information becomes available. Theoretical requirements for adaptive management notwithstanding, federal agency decision making is subject to the requirements of the federal Administrative Procedure Act, and state agencies are subject to the states’ parallel statutes. We argue that conventional administrative law has unnecessarily shackled effective use of adaptive management. We show that through a specialized ‘adaptive management track’ of administrative procedures, the core values of administrative law—especially public participation, judicial review, and finality— can be implemented in ways that allow for more effective adaptive management. We present and explain draft model legislation (the Model Adaptive Management Procedure Act) that would create such a track for the specific types of agency decision making that could benefit from adaptive management.

Adaptation to Climate Change in Forestry: A Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Marielle Brunette

2018-01-01

Full Text Available We analyze economic perspectives of forest adaptation to risk attributes, caused mostly by climate change. We construct a database with 89 systematically chosen articles, dealing simultaneously with climate, adaptation, risk and economy. We classify the database with regard to 18 variables bearing on the characteristics of the paper, the description of the risk and the adaptation strategy, the topic and the corresponding results. To achieve a “high level-of-evidence”, we realize a multiple correspondence analysis (MCA to identify which variables were found in combination with one other in the literature and make distinct groupings affecting adaptive decisions. We identify three groups: (i profit and production; (ii microeconomic risk-handling; and (iii decision and behavior. The first group includes economic costs and benefits as the driver of adaptation and prioritizes simulation, and a mix of theoretical and empirical economic approach. The second group distinctly involves risk-related issues, in particular its management by adaptation. The third group gathers a large set of social and behavioral variables affecting management decisions collected through questionnaires. Such an approach allows the identification of gaps in the literature, concerning the impact of owners’ preferences towards risk and uncertainty regarding adaptation decisions, the fact that adaptation was often reduced in an attempt to adapt to the increasing risk of wildfire, or the existence of a regional bias.

Adaptive Management: From More Talk to Real Action

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Byron K.; Brown, Eleanor D.

2014-02-01

The challenges currently facing resource managers are large-scale and complex, and demand new approaches to balance development and conservation goals. One approach that shows considerable promise for addressing these challenges is adaptive management, which by now is broadly seen as a natural, intuitive, and potentially effective way to address decision-making in the face of uncertainties. Yet the concept of adaptive management continues to evolve, and its record of success remains limited. In this article, we present an operational framework for adaptive decision-making, and describe the challenges and opportunities in applying it to real-world problems. We discuss the key elements required for adaptive decision-making, and their integration into an iterative process that highlights and distinguishes technical and social learning. We illustrate the elements and processes of the framework with some successful on-the-ground examples of natural resource management. Finally, we address some of the difficulties in applying learning-based management, and finish with a discussion of future directions and strategic challenges.

Analysis of Swedish Forest Owners' Information and Knowledge-Sharing Networks for Decision-Making: Insights for Climate Change Communication and Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

André, Karin; Baird, Julia; Gerger Swartling, Åsa; Vulturius, Gregor; Plummer, Ryan

2017-06-01

To further the understanding of climate change adaptation processes, more attention needs to be paid to the various contextual factors that shape whether and how climate-related knowledge and information is received and acted upon by actors involved. This study sets out to examine the characteristics of forest owners' in Sweden, the information and knowledge-sharing networks they draw upon for decision-making, and their perceptions of climate risks, their forests' resilience, the need for adaptation, and perceived adaptive capacity. By applying the concept of ego-network analysis, the empirical data was generated by a quantitative survey distributed to 3000 private forest owners' in Sweden in 2014 with a response rate of 31%. The results show that there is a positive correlation, even though it is generally weak, between forest owner climate perceptions and (i) network features, i.e. network size and heterogeneity, and (ii) presence of certain alter groups (i.e. network members or actors). Results indicate that forest owners' social networks currently serve only a minimal function of sharing knowledge of climate change and adaptation. Moreover, considering the fairly infrequent contact between respondents and alter groups, the timing of knowledge sharing is important. In conclusion we suggest those actors that forest owners' most frequently communicate with, especially forestry experts providing advisory services (e.g. forest owner associations, companies, and authorities) have a clear role to communicate both the risks of climate change and opportunities for adaptation. Peers are valuable in connecting information about climate risks and adaptation to the actual forest property.

[The adaptation and validation to Spanish of the questionnaire Aid to Capacity Evaluation (ACE), for the assessment of the ability of patients in medical decision-making].

Science.gov (United States)

Moraleda Barba, Sandra; Ballesta Rodríguez, M Isabel; Delgado Quero, Antonio Luis; Lietor Villajos, Norberto; Moreno Corredor, Andrés; Delgado Rodríguez, Miguel

2015-03-01

To adapt and validate the Spanish version of the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale, designed to assess the capacity of the adult in medical decision-making, both in diagnosis and treatment processes. Observational study of prospective validation. Primary and hospital care of the basic health area of Jaen. One hundred twenty-nine patients. Questionnaire which included sociodemographic variables, concerning the decision (scope, type of decision, the need for written informed consent), assessment of the capacity to the Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale and other related comorbidity (hearing loss, alcoholism, cognitive level variables with the Mini-Mental State Examination and depression by Goldberg or Yesavage test). The tool is considered viable. The conclusions of the expert panel were favorable. The result of the criteria' validity, comparing the results with the assessment of the experts (forensic and psychiatrist) was very satisfying (P<.001). The intra-observer reliability was low (kappa=0,135). Interobserver reliability remained high (kappa=0.74). The internal consistency was awarded an alpha of Cronbach's 0,645 for the reduced model of 6 items. The Aid to Capacity Evaluation scale was adapted to Spanish, demonstrating adequate internal consistency and construct validity. Its use in clinical practice could contribute to the identification of patients unable to make a particular medical decision and/or to give an informed consent. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier España, S.L.U. All rights reserved.

Understanding adaptation decisions in Morocco's plains and ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2011-04-21

Apr 21, 2011 ... In Morocco, the threat posed by climate change has been recognized for some time by decision-makers at national and provincial levels. Erratic rainfall, an overall decline in precipitation, and recurring heat waves are creating chronic water shortages in the agricultural areas that support 80% of the ...

Better economics: supporting adaptation with stakeholder analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Chambwera, Muyeye; Zou, Ye; Boughlala, Mohamed

2011-11-15

Across the developing world, decision makers understand the need to adapt to climate change — particularly in agriculture, which supports a large proportion of low-income groups who are especially vulnerable to impacts such as increasing water scarcity or more erratic weather. But policymakers are often less clear about what adaptation action to take. Cost-benefit analyses can provide information on the financial feasibility and economic efficiency of a given policy. But such methods fail to capture the non-monetary benefits of adaptation, which can be even more important than the monetary ones. Ongoing work in Morocco shows how combining cost-benefit analysis with a more participatory stakeholder analysis can support effective decision making by identifying cross-sector benefits, highlighting areas of mutual interest among different stakeholders and more effectively assessing impacts on adaptive capacity.

Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

OpenAIRE

Eroğlu Başak; Özkan Zekiye; Eroğlu Arif Kaan; Bilgin Şakire

2016-01-01

The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish ...

Behavioural Decision Making and Suggestional Processes

OpenAIRE

Molz, Günter

2001-01-01

Common features between the domains of behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are discussed. These features are allocated in two aspects. First, behavioural decision making and suggestional processes are traditionally considered to provoke inadequate human behaviour. In this article arguments are put forward against this interpretation: Actions induced by non-rational decisions and / or by suggestional processes often have adaptive functions. Second, two common themat...

Lessons and challenges from adaptation pathways planning applications

Science.gov (United States)

Haasnoot, M.; Lawrence, J.; Kwakkel, J. H.; Walker, W.; Timmermans, J.; Bloemen, P.; Thissen, W.

2015-12-01

Planning for adaptation to dynamic risks (e.g., because of climate change) is a critical need. The concept of 'adaptive policies' is receiving increasing attention as a way of performing strategic planning that is able to address many of the inherent challenges of uncertainty and dynamic change. Several approaches for developing adaptive policies are available in the literature. One approach, for which several applications already exist, is Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pathway maps enable policy analysts, decision makers, and stakeholders to recognize potential 'locked-in' situations and to assess the flexibility, robustness, and efficacy of decision alternatives. Most of the applications of DAPP have been in deltas, coastal cities, or floodplains, often within the context of climate change adaptation. In this talk, we describe the DAPP approach and present a framework for designing signposts as adaptation signals, together with an illustrative application for the Rhine River in the Netherlands. We also draw lessons and challenges from pathways applications that differ in environment, culture, and institutional context. For example, the Dutch Delta Programme has used pathways to identify short-term decisions and long-term policy options. In Bangladesh, an application is in its early phase. Steps before generating pathways - such as long- term thinking in multiple possible futures and acknowledging uncertainties - are already a big challenge there. In New Zealand, the 'Sustainable Delta Game' has been used as the catalyst for pathways thinking by two local councils. This has led to its application in decision making for coastal and flood risk management and economic analysis of policy options.

An Integrated Framework to Analyze Local Decision Making and Adaptation to Sea-Level Rise in Coastal Regions in Santos-Brazil, Broward County-USA and Selsey-UK

Science.gov (United States)

Marengo, J. A.; Muller-Karger, F. E.; Pelling, M.; Reynolds, C. J.; Merril, S. B.; Nunes, L. H.; Paterson, S.; Gray, A.; Lockman, J. T.; Kartez, J.; Moreira, F.; Greco, R.; Harari, J.; Souza, C. G.; Alves, L. M.; Hosokawa, E.; Tabuchi, E.

2016-12-01

One of the clear signals of present climate change is sea level rise (SLR). There is mounting evidence of other changes, including warmer temperatures in many localities, and changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme meteorological events, including wind, rain, and waves. A rising sea level combined with these factors and tides is expected to affect coastal communities through a number of processes, including increased risk of flooding and contamination of water sources. An international collaboration between Brazil, the United Kingdom, and the United States was designed to evaluate local decision making processes and to open convening space for local urban managers to reflect on possible actions toward adaption to SLR and the constraints imposed by framing administrative and institutional structures. The overall goal of the project is to help coastal communities better understand factors that facilitate or hinder their intrinsic, local decision-making processes related to planning for adaptation to risk. The project carried out these tests in 2014 and 2015 in one coastal city in each partnering nation. The framework was designed by an interdisciplinary team that incorporated social and natural scientists from these three nations, and which included local government officials. To support the overall goal, this paper 1) discusses some aspects of adaptive capacity and participant survey research conducted through the project, 2) presents technical modelling results for adaptation options that may reduce the potential damages of SLR and storm surge in each location, and 3) identifies project design considerations for similar transnational adaptation projects.

Using Bayesian belief networks in adaptive management.

Science.gov (United States)

J.B. Nyberg; B.G. Marcot; R. Sulyma

2006-01-01

Bayesian belief and decision networks are relatively new modeling methods that are especially well suited to adaptive-management applications, but they appear not to have been widely used in adaptive management to date. Bayesian belief networks (BBNs) can serve many purposes for practioners of adaptive management, from illustrating system relations conceptually to...

Himalayan Adaptation, Water, and Resilience | CRDI - Centre de ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

To help the people of Pakistan, India, Bangladesh, and Nepal adapt, this project will develop robust evidence to inform climate change adaptation policies and practices. ... -promote decision-makers' use of knowledge and adaptation practices at various scales to reduce vulnerabilities and build livelihood resilience; and

The Economics of Adaptation and Climate-Resilient Development ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

... correct decisions are made because they require advanced decision-making techniques. ... is needed to understand factors that determine growth performance. ... IWRA/IDRC webinar on climate change and adaptive water management.

SU-D-BRB-05: Quantum Learning for Knowledge-Based Response-Adaptive Radiotherapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

El Naqa, I; Ten, R [Haken University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI (United States)

2016-06-15

Purpose: There is tremendous excitement in radiotherapy about applying data-driven methods to develop personalized clinical decisions for real-time response-based adaptation. However, classical statistical learning methods lack in terms of efficiency and ability to predict outcomes under conditions of uncertainty and incomplete information. Therefore, we are investigating physics-inspired machine learning approaches by utilizing quantum principles for developing a robust framework to dynamically adapt treatments to individual patient’s characteristics and optimize outcomes. Methods: We studied 88 liver SBRT patients with 35 on non-adaptive and 53 on adaptive protocols. Adaptation was based on liver function using a split-course of 3+2 fractions with a month break. The radiotherapy environment was modeled as a Markov decision process (MDP) of baseline and one month into treatment states. The patient environment was modeled by a 5-variable state represented by patient’s clinical and dosimetric covariates. For comparison of classical and quantum learning methods, decision-making to adapt at one month was considered. The MDP objective was defined by the complication-free tumor control (P{sup +}=TCPx(1-NTCP)). A simple regression model represented state-action mapping. Single bit in classical MDP and a qubit of 2-superimposed states in quantum MDP represented the decision actions. Classical decision selection was done using reinforcement Q-learning and quantum searching was performed using Grover’s algorithm, which applies uniform superposition over possible states and yields quadratic speed-up. Results: Classical/quantum MDPs suggested adaptation (probability amplitude ≥0.5) 79% of the time for splitcourses and 100% for continuous-courses. However, the classical MDP had an average adaptation probability of 0.5±0.22 while the quantum algorithm reached 0.76±0.28. In cases where adaptation failed, classical MDP yielded 0.31±0.26 average amplitude while the

The Sustained Influence of an Error on Future Decision-Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Schiffler, Björn C; Bengtsson, Sara L; Lundqvist, Daniel

2017-01-01

Post-error slowing (PES) is consistently observed in decision-making tasks after negative feedback. Yet, findings are inconclusive as to whether PES supports performance accuracy. We addressed the role of PES by employing drift diffusion modeling which enabled us to investigate latent processes of reaction times and accuracy on a large-scale dataset (>5,800 participants) of a visual search experiment with emotional face stimuli. In our experiment, post-error trials were characterized by both adaptive and non-adaptive decision processes. An adaptive increase in participants' response threshold was sustained over several trials post-error. Contrarily, an initial decrease in evidence accumulation rate, followed by an increase on the subsequent trials, indicates a momentary distraction of task-relevant attention and resulted in an initial accuracy drop. Higher values of decision threshold and evidence accumulation on the post-error trial were associated with higher accuracy on subsequent trials which further gives credence to these parameters' role in post-error adaptation. Finally, the evidence accumulation rate post-error decreased when the error trial presented angry faces, a finding suggesting that the post-error decision can be influenced by the error context. In conclusion, we demonstrate that error-related response adaptations are multi-component processes that change dynamically over several trials post-error.

The Sustained Influence of an Error on Future Decision-Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Björn C. Schiffler

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Post-error slowing (PES is consistently observed in decision-making tasks after negative feedback. Yet, findings are inconclusive as to whether PES supports performance accuracy. We addressed the role of PES by employing drift diffusion modeling which enabled us to investigate latent processes of reaction times and accuracy on a large-scale dataset (>5,800 participants of a visual search experiment with emotional face stimuli. In our experiment, post-error trials were characterized by both adaptive and non-adaptive decision processes. An adaptive increase in participants’ response threshold was sustained over several trials post-error. Contrarily, an initial decrease in evidence accumulation rate, followed by an increase on the subsequent trials, indicates a momentary distraction of task-relevant attention and resulted in an initial accuracy drop. Higher values of decision threshold and evidence accumulation on the post-error trial were associated with higher accuracy on subsequent trials which further gives credence to these parameters’ role in post-error adaptation. Finally, the evidence accumulation rate post-error decreased when the error trial presented angry faces, a finding suggesting that the post-error decision can be influenced by the error context. In conclusion, we demonstrate that error-related response adaptations are multi-component processes that change dynamically over several trials post-error.

Single-photon decision maker

Science.gov (United States)

Naruse, Makoto; Berthel, Martin; Drezet, Aurélien; Huant, Serge; Aono, Masashi; Hori, Hirokazu; Kim, Song-Ju

2015-08-01

Decision making is critical in our daily lives and for society in general and is finding evermore practical applications in information and communication technologies. Herein, we demonstrate experimentally that single photons can be used to make decisions in uncertain, dynamically changing environments. Using a nitrogen-vacancy in a nanodiamond as a single-photon source, we demonstrate the decision-making capability by solving the multi-armed bandit problem. This capability is directly and immediately associated with single-photon detection in the proposed architecture, leading to adequate and adaptive autonomous decision making. This study makes it possible to create systems that benefit from the quantum nature of light to perform practical and vital intelligent functions.

Modeling Adaptation as a Flow and Stock Decision with Mitigation

Science.gov (United States)

Mitigation and adaptation are the two key responses available to policymakers to reduce the risks of climate change. We model these two policies together in a new DICE-based integrated assessment model that characterizes adaptation as either short-lived flow spending or long-liv...

Adaptive resource management and the value of information

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, Byron K.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Breininger, David R.

2011-01-01

The value of information is a general and broadly applicable concept that has been used for several decades to aid in making decisions in the face of uncertainty. Yet there are relatively few examples of its use in ecology and natural resources management, and almost none that are framed in terms of the future impacts of management decisions. In this paper we discuss the value of information in a context of adaptive management, in which actions are taken sequentially over a timeframe and both future resource conditions and residual uncertainties about resource responses are taken into account. Our objective is to derive the value of reducing or eliminating uncertainty in adaptive decision making. We describe several measures of the value of information, with each based on management objectives that are appropriate for adaptive management. We highlight some mathematical properties of these measures, discuss their geometries, and illustrate them with an example in natural resources management. Accounting for the value of information can help to inform decisions about whether and how much to monitor resource conditions through time.

Decision Profiles of Mexican-Descent Families.

Science.gov (United States)

Baker, Georgianne

An exploratory study of decision-making in families of Mexican heritage was carried out in Phoenix, Arizona. A Normative model of decision rationality and measurement (Family Problem Instrument-FPI) was adapted from previous research. Tape-recorded data were provided by 27 families. Husbands and wives responded separately to family decision…

A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

Science.gov (United States)

Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management. Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adapta...

An adaptive molecular timer in p53-meidated cell fate decision

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Xiao-Peng; Wang, Ping; Liu, Feng; Wang, Wei

The tumor suppressor p53 decides cellular outcomes in the DNA damage response. It is intriguing to explore the link between p53 dynamics and cell fates. We developed a theoretical model of p53 signaling network to clarify the mechanism of cell fate decision mediated by its dynamics. We found that the interplay between p53-Mdm2 negative feedback loop and p53-PTEN-Mdm2 positive feedback loop shapes p53 dynamics. Depending on the intensity of DNA damage, p53 shows three modes of dynamics: persistent pulses, two-phase dynamics with pulses followed by sustained high levels and straightforward high levels. Especially, p53 shows two-phase dynamics upon moderated damage and the required number of p53 pulses before apoptosis induction decreases with increasing DNA damage. Our results suggested there exists an adaptive molecular timer that determines whether and when the apoptosis switch should be triggered. We clarified the mechanism behind the switching of p53 dynamical modes by bifurcation analysis. Moreover, we reproduced the experimental results that drug additions alter p53 pulses to sustained p53 activation and leads to senescence. Our work may advance the understanding the significance of p53 dynamics in tumor suppression. This work was supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (Nos. 11175084, 11204126 and 31361163003).

An adaptive approach to invasive plant management on U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service-owned native prairies in the Prairie Pothole Region: decision support under uncertainity

Science.gov (United States)

Gannon, Jill J.; Moore, Clinton T.; Shaffer, Terry L.; Flanders-Wanner, Bridgette

2011-01-01

Much of the native prairie managed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (Service) in the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) is extensively invaded by the introduced cool-season grasses smooth brome (Bromus inermis) and Kentucky bluegrass (Poa pratensis). The central challenge to managers is selecting appropriate management actions in the face of biological and environmental uncertainties. We describe the technical components of a USGS management project, and explain how the components integrate and inform each other, how data feedback from individual cooperators serves to reduce uncertainty across the whole region, and how a successful adaptive management project is coordinated and maintained on a large scale. In partnership with the Service, the U.S. Geological Survey is developing an adaptive decision support framework to assist managers in selecting management actions under uncertainty and maximizing learning from management outcomes. The framework is built around practical constraints faced by refuge managers and includes identification of the management objective and strategies, analysis of uncertainty and construction of competing decision models, monitoring, and mechanisms for model feedback and decision selection. Nineteen Service field stations, spanning four states of the PPR, are participating in the project. They share a common management objective, available management strategies, and biological uncertainties. While the scope is broad, the project interfaces with individual land managers who provide refuge-specific information and receive updated decision guidance that incorporates understanding gained from the collective experience of all cooperators.

Designing monitoring arrangements for collaborative learning about adaptation pathways

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Hermans, L.M.; Haasnoot, M.; ter Maat, Judith; Kwakkel, J.H.

2017-01-01

Adaptation pathways approaches support long-term planning under uncertainty. The use of adaptation pathways implies a systematic monitoring effort to inform future adaptation decisions. Such monitoring should feed into a long-term collaborative learning process between multiple actors at various

Adaptive Management of Environmental Flows

Science.gov (United States)

Webb, J. Angus; Watts, Robyn J.; Allan, Catherine; Conallin, John C.

2018-03-01

Adaptive management enables managers to work with complexity and uncertainty, and to respond to changing biophysical and social conditions. Amid considerable uncertainty over the benefits of environmental flows, governments are embracing adaptive management as a means to inform decision making. This Special Issue of Environmental Management presents examples of adaptive management of environmental flows and addresses claims that there are few examples of its successful implementation. It arose from a session at the 11th International Symposium on Ecohydraulics held in Australia, and is consequently dominated by papers from Australia. We classified the papers according to the involvement of researchers, managers and the local community in adaptive management. Five papers report on approaches developed by researchers, and one paper on a community-led program; these case studies currently have little impact on decision making. Six papers provide examples involving water managers and researchers, and two papers provide examples involving water managers and the local community. There are no papers where researchers, managers and local communities all contribute equally to adaptive management. Successful adaptive management of environmental flows occurs more often than is perceived. The final paper explores why successes are rarely reported, suggesting a lack of emphasis on reflection on management practices. One major challenge is to increase the documentation of successful adaptive management, so that benefits of learning extend beyond the project where it takes place. Finally, moving towards greater involvement of all stakeholders is critical if we are to realize the benefits of adaptive management for improving outcomes from environmental flows.

Does fertility status influence impulsivity and risk taking in human females? Adaptive influences on intertemporal choice and risky decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kaighobadi, Farnaz; Stevens, Jeffrey R

2013-07-18

Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males), become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted--i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

Does Fertility Status Influence Impulsivity and Risk Taking in Human Females? Adaptive Influences on Intertemporal Choice and Risky Decision Making

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Farnaz Kaighobadi

2013-07-01

Full Text Available Informed by the research on adaptive decision making in other animal species, this study investigated human females' intertemporal and risky choices across the ovulatory cycle. We tested the hypothesis that at peak fertility, women who are exposed to environments that signal availability of higher quality mates (by viewing images of attractive males, become more impulsive and risk-seeking in economic decision tasks. To test this, we collected intertemporal and risky choice measures before and after exposure to images of either attractive males or neutral landscapes both at peak and low fertility conditions. The results showed an interaction between women's fertility status and image type, such that women at peak fertility viewing images of attractive men chose the smaller, sooner monetary reward option less than women at peak fertility viewing neutral images. Neither fertility status nor image type influenced risky choice. Thus, though exposure to images of men altered intertemporal choices at peak fertility, this occurred in the opposite direction than predicted—i.e., women at peak fertility became less impulsive. Nevertheless, the results of the current study provide evidence for shifts in preferences over the ovulatory cycle and opens future research on economic decision making.

Climate-Adapted Soil Cultivation as an Aspect for Sustainable Farming – Task-Technology-Fit of a Decision Support System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Welf Guenther-Lübbers

2013-03-01

Full Text Available Due to global climate change and its impact on local weather conditions, decision support systems are becoming more important in agriculture. Such systems allow farmers to adapt more effectively to the complex changes affecting their farms. Marginal production sites must apply new tillage strategies adapted to new climatic conditions. Information about proper strategy adjustments is often disseminated through agricultural extension services and journals. A new internet information platform, KlimaBob, which focuses on climate-flexible tillage, was established under the auspices of the Innovation Network of Climate Change Adaptation Brandenburg Berlin. Successful and permanent introduction of such a system requires analysis and verification of its acceptance among individual farmers. This study addresses this need by applying the established task-technology fit approach. A survey was conducted among farmers in the Brandenburg region. The resulting data provided the basis for a structural equation model that explains and evaluates the task-technology fit of the KlimaBob platform. The results indicate that the performance spectrum of the system exerts a strong influence on the task-technology fit when assessed by both the name characteristics of KlimaBob and the individual characteristics of users (for example, time management, technology affinity and risk attitude.

Strategic Adaptation

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Andersen, Torben Juul

2015-01-01

This article provides an overview of theoretical contributions that have influenced the discourse around strategic adaptation including contingency perspectives, strategic fit reasoning, decision structure, information processing, corporate entrepreneurship, and strategy process. The related...... concepts of strategic renewal, dynamic managerial capabilities, dynamic capabilities, and strategic response capabilities are discussed and contextualized against strategic responsiveness. The insights derived from this article are used to outline the contours of a dynamic process of strategic adaptation....... This model incorporates elements of central strategizing, autonomous entrepreneurial behavior, interactive information processing, and open communication systems that enhance the organization's ability to observe exogenous changes and respond effectively to them....

Ethical Decision Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lauesen, Linne Marie

2012-01-01

of the interaction between a corporation and its stakeholders. Methodology/approach: This paper offers a theoretical 'Organic Stakeholder Model' based on decision making theory, risk assessment and adaption to a rapidly changing world combined with appropriate stakeholder theory for ethical purposes in decision...... applicable): The Model is based on case studies, but the limited scope of the length of the paper did not leave room to show the empirical evidence, but only the theoretical study. Originality / value of a paper: The model offers a new way of combining risk management with ethical decision-making processes...... by the inclusion of multiple stakeholders. The conceptualization of the model enhances business ethics in decision making by managing and balancing stakeholder concerns with the same concerns as the traditional risk management models does – for the sake of the wider social responsibilities of the businesses...

Non-Equilibrium Relations for Bounded Rational Decision-Making in Changing Environments

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jordi Grau-Moya

2017-12-01

Full Text Available Living organisms from single cells to humans need to adapt continuously to respond to changes in their environment. The process of behavioural adaptation can be thought of as improving decision-making performance according to some utility function. Here, we consider an abstract model of organisms as decision-makers with limited information-processing resources that trade off between maximization of utility and computational costs measured by a relative entropy, in a similar fashion to thermodynamic systems undergoing isothermal transformations. Such systems minimize the free energy to reach equilibrium states that balance internal energy and entropic cost. When there is a fast change in the environment, these systems evolve in a non-equilibrium fashion because they are unable to follow the path of equilibrium distributions. Here, we apply concepts from non-equilibrium thermodynamics to characterize decision-makers that adapt to changing environments under the assumption that the temporal evolution of the utility function is externally driven and does not depend on the decision-maker’s action. This allows one to quantify performance loss due to imperfect adaptation in a general manner and, additionally, to find relations for decision-making similar to Crooks’ fluctuation theorem and Jarzynski’s equality. We provide simulations of several exemplary decision and inference problems in the discrete and continuous domains to illustrate the new relations.

Recommendation System for Adaptive Learning.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Yunxiao; Li, Xiaoou; Liu, Jingchen; Ying, Zhiliang

2018-01-01

An adaptive learning system aims at providing instruction tailored to the current status of a learner, differing from the traditional classroom experience. The latest advances in technology make adaptive learning possible, which has the potential to provide students with high-quality learning benefit at a low cost. A key component of an adaptive learning system is a recommendation system, which recommends the next material (video lectures, practices, and so on, on different skills) to the learner, based on the psychometric assessment results and possibly other individual characteristics. An important question then follows: How should recommendations be made? To answer this question, a mathematical framework is proposed that characterizes the recommendation process as a Markov decision problem, for which decisions are made based on the current knowledge of the learner and that of the learning materials. In particular, two plain vanilla systems are introduced, for which the optimal recommendation at each stage can be obtained analytically.

Adapting EVIAVE methodology as a planning and decision-making tool in Venezuela

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zamorano, M.; Paolini, A.; Ramos, A.; Rodriguez, M.L.

2009-01-01

Landfills in Venezuela have serious problems regarding their location, design and operation. In fact, basic waste disposal is one of the main weaknesses of the municipal waste management in this country. The Venezuelan Ministry of Environment and Renewable Resources has studied and identified the negative impacts of operating landfills, but no program has been implemented to determine the cause-effect relation of these impacts or to design strategies to counteract with the serious environmental and health risks generated. This paper describes how EVIAVE methodology can be successfully used for landfill diagnosis, and shows how this type of landfill diagnosis was applied in Venezuela. For our research study, we carried out both a quantitative and qualitative evaluation of the environmental problems generated by 22 landfills in Venezuela. Our study was based on the following environmental indexes: Landfill Environment, Environmental Risk, Environmental Value, and Probability of Contamination. For the purposes of our study, it was first necessary to adapt EVIAVE to the legal system and social context in Venezuela. The results obtained confirmed the applicability of this methodology to Venezuelan landfills. EVIAVE was found to be an effective planning tool that provided crucial information for the development of action plans, which would improve landfill operation, and help make decisions pertaining to their closure, sealing and eventual recovery.

Towards a Typology of Adaptive Governance in the Digital Government Context

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wang, Cancan; Medaglia, Rony; Zheng, Lei

2018-01-01

and of accountability between government and non-government actors is critical to developing different types of adaptive governance. Findings show that the distribution of decision-making power and of accountability can be decoupled, resulting in three types of adaptive governance – namely polycentric, agile......, and organic governance. We contribute to research by detailing and empirically testing the notion of adaptive governance in a digital government context, and to practice by highlighting the role of the distribution of decision-making power and of accountability in devising adaptive governance strategies....... there is an increasing need to establish forms of collaboration that can respond to swift changes in the environment related to technology and citizen demands. Drawing on the analysis of four cases of IT-related project collaboration, we put forward that the degree of sharing of decision-making power...

Career success criteria and locus of control as indicators of adaptive readiness in the career adaptation model.

OpenAIRE

Zhou, W.; Guan, Y.; Xin, L.; Mak, M.C.K.; Deng, Y.

2016-01-01

The present research had two goals. The first goal was to identify additional individual characteristics that may contribute to adaptive readiness. The second goal was to test if these characteristics fit the career adaptation model of readiness to resources to responses. We examined whether career success criteria (measured at Time 1) and career locus of control (measured at Time 1) would contribute to adaptivity and predict university students’ career decision-making self-efficacy (measured...

Value-based decision-making battery: A Bayesian adaptive approach to assess impulsive and risky behavior.

Science.gov (United States)

Pooseh, Shakoor; Bernhardt, Nadine; Guevara, Alvaro; Huys, Quentin J M; Smolka, Michael N

2018-02-01

Using simple mathematical models of choice behavior, we present a Bayesian adaptive algorithm to assess measures of impulsive and risky decision making. Practically, these measures are characterized by discounting rates and are used to classify individuals or population groups, to distinguish unhealthy behavior, and to predict developmental courses. However, a constant demand for improved tools to assess these constructs remains unanswered. The algorithm is based on trial-by-trial observations. At each step, a choice is made between immediate (certain) and delayed (risky) options. Then the current parameter estimates are updated by the likelihood of observing the choice, and the next offers are provided from the indifference point, so that they will acquire the most informative data based on the current parameter estimates. The procedure continues for a certain number of trials in order to reach a stable estimation. The algorithm is discussed in detail for the delay discounting case, and results from decision making under risk for gains, losses, and mixed prospects are also provided. Simulated experiments using prescribed parameter values were performed to justify the algorithm in terms of the reproducibility of its parameters for individual assessments, and to test the reliability of the estimation procedure in a group-level analysis. The algorithm was implemented as an experimental battery to measure temporal and probability discounting rates together with loss aversion, and was tested on a healthy participant sample.

Adapting inland fisheries management to a changing climate

Science.gov (United States)

Paukert, Craig P.; Glazer, Bob A.; Hansen, Gretchen J. A.; Irwin, Brian J.; Jacobson, Peter C.; Kershner, Jeffrey L.; Shuter, Brian J.; Whitney, James E.; Lynch, Abigail J.

2016-01-01

Natural resource decision makers are challenged to adapt management to a changing climate while balancing short-term management goals with long-term changes in aquatic systems. Adaptation will require developing resilient ecosystems and resilient management systems. Decision makers already have tools to develop or ensure resilient aquatic systems and fisheries such as managing harvest and riparian zones. Because fisheries management often interacts with multiple stakeholders, adaptation strategies involving fisheries managers and other partners focused on land use, policy, and human systems, coupled with long-term monitoring, are necessary for resilient systems. We show how agencies and organizations are adapting to a changing climate in Minnesota and Ontario lakes and Montana streams. We also present how the Florida Fish and Wildlife Commission created a management structure to develop adaptation strategies. These examples demonstrate how organizations and agencies can cope with climate change effects on fishes and fisheries through creating resilient management and ecological systems.

Adapting Agricultural Production Systems to Climate Change—What’s the Use of Models?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Annelie Holzkämper

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Climate change poses a challenge to agricultural production and its impacts vary depending on regional focus and on the type of production system. To avoid production losses and make use of emerging potentials, adaptations in agricultural management will inevitably be required. Adaptation responses can broadly be distinguished into (1 short-term incremental responses that farmers often choose autonomously in response to observed changes and based on local knowledge and experiences, and (2 long-term transformative responses that require strategic planning, and which are usually implemented at a larger spatial scale. Models can be used to support decision making at both response levels; thereby, different features of models prove more or less valuable depending on the type of adaptation response. This paper presents a systematic literature review on the state-of-the-art in modelling for adaptation planning in agricultural production systems, investigating the question of which model types can be distinguished and how these types differ in the way they support decision making in agricultural adaptation planning. Five types of models are distinguished: (1 empirical crop models; (2 regional suitability models; (3 biophysical models; (4 meta-models; and (5 decision models. The potential and limitations of these model types for providing decision-support to short- and long-term adaptation planning are discussed. The risk of maladaptation—adaptation that implies negative consequences either in the long term or in a wider context—is identified as a key challenge of adaptation planning that needs more attention. Maladaptation is not only a risk of decision making in the face of incomplete knowledge of future climate impacts on the agricultural production system; but it can also be a threat if the connectedness of the agroecosystem is not sufficiently acknowledged when management adaptations are implemented. Future research supporting climate change

Agent-based Decision Support System for the Third Generation Distributed Dynamic Decision-making (DDD-III) Simulator

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Meirina, Candra; Ruan, Sui; Yu, Feili; Zhu, Liang; Pattipati, Krishna R; Kleinman, David L

2004-01-01

...) based on the third-generation distributed dynamic decision-making (DDD-III) simulator and contingency theory to increase the organizational cognitive capacity and to facilitate the processes of adaptation...

VIDEO DENOISING USING SWITCHING ADAPTIVE DECISION BASED ALGORITHM WITH ROBUST MOTION ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

V. Jayaraj

2010-08-01

Full Text Available A Non-linear adaptive decision based algorithm with robust motion estimation technique is proposed for removal of impulse noise, Gaussian noise and mixed noise (impulse and Gaussian with edge and fine detail preservation in images and videos. The algorithm includes detection of corrupted pixels and the estimation of values for replacing the corrupted pixels. The main advantage of the proposed algorithm is that an appropriate filter is used for replacing the corrupted pixel based on the estimation of the noise variance present in the filtering window. This leads to reduced blurring and better fine detail preservation even at the high mixed noise density. It performs both spatial and temporal filtering for removal of the noises in the filter window of the videos. The Improved Cross Diamond Search Motion Estimation technique uses Least Median Square as a cost function, which shows improved performance than other motion estimation techniques with existing cost functions. The results show that the proposed algorithm outperforms the other algorithms in the visual point of view and in Peak Signal to Noise Ratio, Mean Square Error and Image Enhancement Factor.

Investigation of autistic traits through strategic decision-making in games with adaptive agents.

Science.gov (United States)

Craig, Alexis B; Grossman, Emily; Krichmar, Jeffrey L

2017-07-17

Autism Spectrum Disorders are characterized by difficulties in communicating and cooperating with other people. Impairment in Theory of Mind (ToM), the ability to infer what another person is thinking, may contribute to these social deficits. The present study assesses the relationship between autistic traits and decision-making in a socioeconomic game environment that measures ToM and cooperation. We quantified participant strategy during game play with computer agents that simulated aspects of ToM or fixed strategy agents with static behaviors or heuristics. Individuals with higher Autism Quotient (AQ) scores cooperated less than subjects with low AQ scores with the ToM agents. In contrast, subjects with higher AQ scores cooperated more with fixed strategy agents. Additionally, subjects with higher AQ scores spent more time than low AQ subjects signaling cooperative intent in games with fixed strategy agents while spending less time signaling cooperation with adaptive agents, indicating a preference toward systemizing behaviors in the face of uncertainty. We conclude that individuals with high levels of autistic traits are less likely to utilize ToM as a cognitive strategy, even when it is beneficial, to achieve a desired outcome.

Adaptive information-theoretic bounded rational decision-making with parametric priors

OpenAIRE

Grau-Moya, Jordi; Braun, Daniel A.

2015-01-01

Deviations from rational decision-making due to limited computational resources have been studied in the field of bounded rationality, originally proposed by Herbert Simon. There have been a number of different approaches to model bounded rationality ranging from optimality principles to heuristics. Here we take an information-theoretic approach to bounded rationality, where information-processing costs are measured by the relative entropy between a posterior decision strategy and a given fix...

Optimal Decision Fusion for Urban Land-Use/Land-Cover Classification Based on Adaptive Differential Evolution Using Hyperspectral and LiDAR Data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yanfei Zhong

2017-08-01

Full Text Available Hyperspectral images and light detection and ranging (LiDAR data have, respectively, the high spectral resolution and accurate elevation information required for urban land-use/land-cover (LULC classification. To combine the respective advantages of hyperspectral and LiDAR data, this paper proposes an optimal decision fusion method based on adaptive differential evolution, namely ODF-ADE, for urban LULC classification. In the ODF-ADE framework the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI, gray-level co-occurrence matrix (GLCM and digital surface model (DSM are extracted to form the feature map. The three different classifiers of the maximum likelihood classifier (MLC, support vector machine (SVM and multinomial logistic regression (MLR are used to classify the extracted features. To find the optimal weights for the different classification maps, weighted voting is used to obtain the classification result and the weights of each classification map are optimized by the differential evolution algorithm which uses a self-adaptive strategy to obtain the parameter adaptively. The final classification map is obtained after post-processing based on conditional random fields (CRF. The experimental results confirm that the proposed algorithm is very effective in urban LULC classification.

A Two-Stage Approach for Improving the Convergence of Least-Mean-Square Adaptive Decision-Feedback Equalizers in the Presence of Severe Narrowband Interference

Science.gov (United States)

Batra, Arun; Zeidler, James R.; Beex, A. A. Louis

2007-12-01

It has previously been shown that a least-mean-square (LMS) decision-feedback filter can mitigate the effect of narrowband interference (L.-M. Li and L. Milstein, 1983). An adaptive implementation of the filter was shown to converge relatively quickly for mild interference. It is shown here, however, that in the case of severe narrowband interference, the LMS decision-feedback equalizer (DFE) requires a very large number of training symbols for convergence, making it unsuitable for some types of communication systems. This paper investigates the introduction of an LMS prediction-error filter (PEF) as a prefilter to the equalizer and demonstrates that it reduces the convergence time of the two-stage system by as much as two orders of magnitude. It is also shown that the steady-state bit-error rate (BER) performance of the proposed system is still approximately equal to that attained in steady-state by the LMS DFE-only. Finally, it is shown that the two-stage system can be implemented without the use of training symbols. This two-stage structure lowers the complexity of the overall system by reducing the number of filter taps that need to be adapted, while incurring a slight loss in the steady-state BER.

A Two-Stage Approach for Improving the Convergence of Least-Mean-Square Adaptive Decision-Feedback Equalizers in the Presence of Severe Narrowband Interference

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. A. (Louis Beex

2008-02-01

Full Text Available It has previously been shown that a least-mean-square (LMS decision-feedback filter can mitigate the effect of narrowband interference (L.-M. Li and L. Milstein, 1983. An adaptive implementation of the filter was shown to converge relatively quickly for mild interference. It is shown here, however, that in the case of severe narrowband interference, the LMS decision-feedback equalizer (DFE requires a very large number of training symbols for convergence, making it unsuitable for some types of communication systems. This paper investigates the introduction of an LMS prediction-error filter (PEF as a prefilter to the equalizer and demonstrates that it reduces the convergence time of the two-stage system by as much as two orders of magnitude. It is also shown that the steady-state bit-error rate (BER performance of the proposed system is still approximately equal to that attained in steady-state by the LMS DFE-only. Finally, it is shown that the two-stage system can be implemented without the use of training symbols. This two-stage structure lowers the complexity of the overall system by reducing the number of filter taps that need to be adapted, while incurring a slight loss in the steady-state BER.

Conservation and adaptation to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Brooke, Cassandra

2008-12-01

The need to adapt to climate change has become increasingly apparent, and many believe the practice of biodiversity conservation will need to alter to face this challenge. Conservation organizations are eager to determine how they should adapt their practices to climate change. This involves asking the fundamental question of what adaptation to climate change means. Most studies on climate change and conservation, if they consider adaptation at all, assume it is equivalent to the ability of species to adapt naturally to climate change as stated in Article 2 of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. Adaptation, however, can refer to an array of activities that range from natural adaptation, at one end of the spectrum, to sustainability science in coupled human and natural systems at the other. Most conservation organizations deal with complex systems in which adaptation to climate change involves making decisions on priorities for biodiversity conservation in the face of dynamic risks and involving the public in these decisions. Discursive methods such as analytic deliberation are useful for integrating scientific knowledge with public perceptions and values, particularly when large uncertainties and risks are involved. The use of scenarios in conservation planning is a useful way to build shared understanding at the science-policy interface. Similarly, boundary organizations-organizations or institutions that bridge different scales or mediate the relationship between science and policy-could prove useful for managing the transdisciplinary nature of adaptation to climate change, providing communication and brokerage services and helping to build adaptive capacity. The fact that some nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) are active across the areas of science, policy, and practice makes them well placed to fulfill this role in integrated assessments of biodiversity conservation and adaptation to climate change.

Regret and adaptive decision making in young children.

Science.gov (United States)

O'Connor, Eimear; McCormack, Teresa; Beck, Sarah R; Feeney, Aidan

2015-07-01

In line with the claim that regret plays a role in decision making, O'Connor, McCormack, and Feeney (Child Development, 85 (2014) 1995-2010) found that children who reported feeling sadder on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice were more likely to make a different choice the next time around. We examined two issues of interpretation regarding this finding: whether the emotion measured was indeed regret and whether it was the experience of this emotion, rather than the ability to anticipate it, that affected decision making. To address the first issue, we varied the degree to which children aged 6 or 7 years were responsible for an outcome, assuming that responsibility is a necessary condition for regret. The second issue was addressed by examining whether children could accurately anticipate that they would feel worse on discovering they had made a non-optimal choice. Children were more likely to feel sad if they were responsible for the outcome; however, even if they were not responsible, children were more likely than chance to report feeling sadder. Moreover, across all conditions, feeling sadder was associated with making a better subsequent choice. In a separate task, we demonstrated that children of this age cannot accurately anticipate feeling sadder on discovering that they had not made the best choice. These findings suggest that although children may feel regret following a non-optimal choice, even if they were not responsible for an outcome, they may experience another negative emotion such as frustration. Experiencing either of these emotions seems to be sufficient to support better decision making. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Decision support frameworks and tools for conservation

Science.gov (United States)

Schwartz, Mark W.; Cook, Carly N.; Pressey, Robert L.; Pullin, Andrew S.; Runge, Michael C.; Salafsky, Nick; Sutherland, William J.; Williamson, Matthew A.

2018-01-01

The practice of conservation occurs within complex socioecological systems fraught with challenges that require transparent, defensible, and often socially engaged project planning and management. Planning and decision support frameworks are designed to help conservation practitioners increase planning rigor, project accountability, stakeholder participation, transparency in decisions, and learning. We describe and contrast five common frameworks within the context of six fundamental questions (why, who, what, where, when, how) at each of three planning stages of adaptive management (project scoping, operational planning, learning). We demonstrate that decision support frameworks provide varied and extensive tools for conservation planning and management. However, using any framework in isolation risks diminishing potential benefits since no one framework covers the full spectrum of potential conservation planning and decision challenges. We describe two case studies that have effectively deployed tools from across conservation frameworks to improve conservation actions and outcomes. Attention to the critical questions for conservation project planning should allow practitioners to operate within any framework and adapt tools to suit their specific management context. We call on conservation researchers and practitioners to regularly use decision support tools as standard practice for framing both practice and research.

Climate adaptation policy, science and practice - Lessons for communication

Science.gov (United States)

Wolf, Johanna

2017-04-01

In climate change adaptation research, policy, and practice, institutional culture produces distinct conceptualizations of adaptation, which in turn affect how adaptation work is undertaken. This study examines institutional culture as the four domains of norms, values, knowledge, and beliefs that are held by adaptation scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners in Western Canada. Based on 31 semi-structured interviews, this article traces the ways in which these four domains interact, intersect, converge, and diverge among scientists, policy- and decision-makers, and practitioners. By exploring the knowledge, backgrounds, goals, approaches, assumptions, and behaviours of people working in adaptation, these interviews map the ways in which institutional culture shapes adaptation work being carried out by local, provincial, and federal governments, nongovernmental organizations, and an international community of scientists (including Canadian scientists). Findings suggest that institutional culture both limits and enables adaptation actions for these actors in important ways, significantly influencing how climate change adaptation is being planned for, and carried out on the ground. As a result, this paper asserts that there is an urgent need to better understand the role that institutional culture plays in order to advance climate change adaptation, both now and in the future. Important lessons for communicating about climate science, climate impacts and adaptation will be presented.

Communicating climate information: travelling through the decision-making process

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stoverinck, F.; Dubois, G.; Amelung, B.

2013-01-01

Climate change forces society to adapt. Adaptation strategies are preferably based on the best available climate information. Climate projections, however, often inform adaptation strategies after being interpreted once or several times. This process affects the original message put forward by climate scientists when presenting the basic climate projections, in particular regarding uncertainties. The nature of this effect and its implications for decision-making are as yet poorly understood. This paper explores the nature and consequences of a) the communication tools used by scientists and experts, and b)changes in the communicated information as it travels through the decision-making process. It does so by analysing the interpretative steps taken in a sample of 25 documents, pertaining to the field of public policies for climate change impact assessment and adaptation strategies. Five phases in the provisioning of climate information are distinguished: pre-existing knowledge (i.e. climate models and data), climate- change projection, impact assessment, adaptation strategy, and adaptation plan. Between the phases, climate information is summarized and synthesised in order to be passed on. The results show that in the sample information on uncertainty is under-represented: e.g. studies focus on only one scenario, and/or disregard probability distributions. In addition, visualization tools are often used ineffectively, leading to confusion and unintended interpretations. Several recommendations are presented. A better training of climatologists to communication issues, but also a training to climatology for decision makers are required, as well as more cautious and robust adaptation strategies, accounting for the uncertainty inherent to climate projections. (authors)

The treatment of uncertainties in risk for regulatory decision making

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Baybutt, P.; Cox, D.C.; Denning, R.S.; Kurth, R.E.; Fraley, D.W.; Heaberlin, S.W.

1982-01-01

This paper describes research conducted in an ongoing program at Battelle to develop and adapt decision analysis methods for regulatory decision making. A general approach to risk-based decision making is discussed. The nature of uncertainties in risk assessment is described and methods for their inclusion in decision making are proposed. The use of decision analysis methods in regulatory decision making and the consideration of uncertainties is illustrated in a realistic case study

Adaptive management: The U.S. Department of the Interior technical guide

Science.gov (United States)

Williams, B K; Szaro, Robert C.; Shapiro, Carl D.

2009-01-01

The purpose of this technical guide is to present an operational definition of adaptive management, identify the conditions in which adaptive management should be considered, and describe the process of using adaptive management for managing natural resources. The guide is not an exhaustive discussion of adaptive management, nor does it include detailed specifications for individual projects. However, it should aid U.S. Department of the Interior (DOI) managers and practitioners in determining when and how to apply adaptive management. Adaptive management is framed within the context of structured decision making, with an emphasis on uncertainty about resource responses to management actions and the value of reducing that uncertainty to improve management. Though learning plays a key role in adaptive management, it is seen here as a means to an end, namely good management, and not an end in itself. The operational definition used in the guide is adopted from the National Research Council, which characterizes adaptive management as an iterative learning process producing improved understanding and improved management over time: Adaptive management [is a decision process that] promotes flexible decision making that can be adjusted in the face of uncertainties as outcomes from management actions and other events become better understood. Careful monitoring of these outcomes both advances scientific understanding and helps adjust policies or operations as part of an iterative learning process. Adaptive management also recognizes the importance of natural variability in contributing to ecological resilience and productivity. It is not a ‘trial and error’ process, but rather emphasizes learning while doing. Adaptive management does not represent an end in itself, but rather a means to more effective decisions and enhanced benefits. Its true measure is in how well it helps meet environmental, social, and economic goals, increases scientific knowledge, and reduces

LandCaRe DSS--an interactive decision support system for climate change impact assessment and the analysis of potential agricultural land use adaptation strategies.

Science.gov (United States)

Wenkel, Karl-Otto; Berg, Michael; Mirschel, Wilfried; Wieland, Ralf; Nendel, Claas; Köstner, Barbara

2013-09-01

Decision support to develop viable climate change adaptation strategies for agriculture and regional land use management encompasses a wide range of options and issues. Up to now, only a few suitable tools and methods have existed for farmers and regional stakeholders that support the process of decision-making in this field. The interactive model-based spatial information and decision support system LandCaRe DSS attempts to close the existing methodical gap. This system supports interactive spatial scenario simulations, multi-ensemble and multi-model simulations at the regional scale, as well as the complex impact assessment of potential land use adaptation strategies at the local scale. The system is connected to a local geo-database and via the internet to a climate data server. LandCaRe DSS uses a multitude of scale-specific ecological impact models, which are linked in various ways. At the local scale (farm scale), biophysical models are directly coupled with a farm economy calculator. New or alternative simulation models can easily be added, thanks to the innovative architecture and design of the DSS. Scenario simulations can be conducted with a reasonable amount of effort. The interactive LandCaRe DSS prototype also offers a variety of data analysis and visualisation tools, a help system for users and a farmer information system for climate adaptation in agriculture. This paper presents the theoretical background, the conceptual framework, and the structure and methodology behind LandCaRe DSS. Scenario studies at the regional and local scale for the two Eastern German regions of Uckermark (dry lowlands, 2600 km(2)) and Weißeritz (humid mountain area, 400 km(2)) were conducted in close cooperation with stakeholders to test the functionality of the DSS prototype. The system is gradually being transformed into a web version (http://www.landcare-dss.de) to ensure the broadest possible distribution of LandCaRe DSS to the public. The system will be continuously

Analytic Procedures For Designing and Evaluating Decision Aids.

Science.gov (United States)

1980-04-01

the taxonomy of decision charateristics . Chapter 5 applies the taxonomies to the information processing functions needed for AAW decisions, and...rationality emphasizes the extent to which organizations and other social institutions consist of individuals who pursue individual objectives by means of...adaptive rationality is always wrong or naive; most of us know persons that seem to be naturally good decision-makers. There is no logic that guarantees

Online participation in climate change adaptation: A case study of agricultural adaptation measures in Northern Italy.

Science.gov (United States)

Bojovic, Dragana; Bonzanigo, Laura; Giupponi, Carlo; Maziotis, Alexandros

2015-07-01

The new EU strategy on adaptation to climate change suggests flexible and participatory approaches. Face-to-face contact, although it involves time-consuming procedures with a limited audience, has often been considered the most effective participatory approach. In recent years, however, there has been an increase in the visibility of different citizens' initiatives in the online world, which strengthens the possibility of greater citizen agency. This paper investigates whether the Internet can ensure efficient public participation with meaningful engagement in climate change adaptation. In elucidating issues regarding climate change adaptation, we developed an eParticipation framework to explore adaptation capacity of agriculture to climate change in Northern Italy. Farmers were mobilised using a pre-existing online network. First they took part in an online questionnaire for revealing their perceptions of and reactions to the impacts of ongoing changes in agriculture. We used these results to suggest a portfolio of policy measures and to set evaluation criteria. Farmers then evaluated these policy options, using a multi criteria analysis tool with a simple user-friendly interface. Our results showed that eParticipation is efficient: it supports a rapid data collection, while involving high number of participants. Moreover, we demonstrated that the digital divide is decreasingly an obstacle for using online spaces for public engagement. This research does not present eParticipation as a panacea. Rather, eParticipation was implemented with well-established participatory approaches to both validate the results and, consequently, communicate meaningful messages on local agricultural adaptation practices to regional decision-makers. Feedbacks from the regional decision-makers showed their interest in using eParticipation to improve communication with farmers in the future. We expect that, with further Internet proliferation, eParticipation may allow the inclusion of

Judgment and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Mellers, B A; Schwartz, A; Cooke, A D

1998-01-01

For many decades, research in judgment and decision making has examined behavioral violations of rational choice theory. In that framework, rationality is expressed as a single correct decision shared by experimenters and subjects that satisfies internal coherence within a set of preferences and beliefs. Outside of psychology, social scientists are now debating the need to modify rational choice theory with behavioral assumptions. Within psychology, researchers are debating assumptions about errors for many different definitions of rationality. Alternative frameworks are being proposed. These frameworks view decisions as more reasonable and adaptive that previously thought. For example, "rule following." Rule following, which occurs when a rule or norm is applied to a situation, often minimizes effort and provides satisfying solutions that are "good enough," though not necessarily the best. When rules are ambiguous, people look for reasons to guide their decisions. They may also let their emotions take charge. This chapter presents recent research on judgment and decision making from traditional and alternative frameworks.

Adapting agriculture to climate change in Kenya: household strategies and determinants.

Science.gov (United States)

Bryan, Elizabeth; Ringler, Claudia; Okoba, Barrack; Roncoli, Carla; Silvestri, Silvia; Herrero, Mario

2013-01-15

Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are particularly vulnerable to climate change, given dependence on agricultural production and limited adaptive capacity. Based on farm household and Participatory Rural Appraisal data collected from districts in various agroecological zones in Kenya, this paper examines farmers' perceptions of climate change, ongoing adaptation measures, and factors influencing farmers' decisions to adapt. The results show that households face considerable challenges in adapting to climate change. While many households have made small adjustments to their farming practices in response to climate change (in particular, changing planting decisions), few households are able to make more costly investments, for example in agroforestry or irrigation, although there is a desire to invest in such measures. This emphasizes the need for greater investments in rural and agricultural development to support the ability of households to make strategic, long-term decisions that affect their future well-being. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Adaptive pathways and coupled infrastructure: seven centuries of adaptation to water risk and the production of vulnerability in Mexico City

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Beth Tellman

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Infrastructure development is central to the processes that abate and produce vulnerabilities in cities. Urban actors, especially those with power and authority, perceive and interpret vulnerability and decide when and how to adapt. When city managers use infrastructure to reduce urban risk in the complex, interconnected city system, new fragilities are introduced because of inherent system feedbacks. We trace the interactions between system dynamics and decision-making processes over 700 years of Mexico City's adaptations to water risks, focusing on the decision cycles of public infrastructure providers (in this case, government authorities. We bring together two lenses in examining this history: robustness-vulnerability trade-offs to explain the evolution of systemic risk dynamics mediated by feedback control, and adaptation pathways to focus on the evolution of decision cycles that motivate significant infrastructure investments. Drawing from historical accounts, archeological evidence, and original research on water, engineering, and cultural history, we examine adaptation pathways of humans settlement, water supply, and flood risk. Mexico City's history reveals insights that expand the theory of coupled infrastructure and lessons salient to contemporary urban risk management: (1 adapting by spatially externalizing risks can backfire: as cities expand, such risks become endogenous; (2 over time, adaptation pathways initiated to address specific risks may begin to intersect, creating complex trade-offs in risk management; and (3 city authorities are agents of risk production: even in the face of new exogenous risks (climate change, acknowledging and managing risks produced endogenously may prove more adaptive. History demonstrates that the very best solutions today may present critical challenges for tomorrow, and that collectively people have far more agency in and influence over the complex systems we live in than is often acknowledged.

Research on self-esteem in decision-making and decision-making styles in orienteering athletes

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Eroğlu Başak

2016-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of this study is to examine the self-esteem in decision making and decision-making styles of orienteering athletes in terms of different variables. 157 male and 43 female orienteering athletes, making a total of 200 athletes that joined the 3rd Level of Turkey Championship in 2015 have participated in this study which is in a survey model. The data collection tools were the Melbourne Decision-making. Quastionnaire I-II and the Personal Information Form which were adapted into Turkish by Deniz (2004. In the data analysis, descriptive statics, anova, t test and Tukey test have been utilized. There is a significant difference between athletes’ marital status, age groups, experiences in orienteering sports and self-esteem in decision making, decision making styles (p<0.05. According to the research results, it has been determined that married orienteering athletes prefer both self-esteem in decision making and vigilance decision-making style more often than the single athletes that mostly prefer procrastination decision-making style. Also, it has been found out that as the athletes’ age and experiences in sports increase, selfesteem and decision-making styles are affected more positively as well.

Farming System Evolution and Adaptive Capacity: Insights for Adaptation Support

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jami L. Dixon

2014-02-01

Full Text Available Studies of climate impacts on agriculture and adaptation often provide current or future assessments, ignoring the historical contexts farming systems are situated within. We investigate how historical trends have influenced farming system adaptive capacity in Uganda using data from household surveys, semi-structured interviews, focus-group discussions and observations. By comparing two farming systems, we note three major findings: (1 similar trends in farming system evolution have had differential impacts on the diversity of farming systems; (2 trends have contributed to the erosion of informal social and cultural institutions and an increasing dependence on formal institutions; and (3 trade-offs between components of adaptive capacity are made at the farm-scale, thus influencing farming system adaptive capacity. To identify the actual impacts of future climate change and variability, it is important to recognize the dynamic nature of adaptation. In practice, areas identified for further adaptation support include: shift away from one-size-fits-all approach the identification and integration of appropriate modern farming method; a greater focus on building inclusive formal and informal institutions; and a more nuanced understanding regarding the roles and decision-making processes of influential, but external, actors. More research is needed to understand farm-scale trade-offs and the resulting impacts across spatial and temporal scales.

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A Hypothetical Application to the Waas Region

Science.gov (United States)

Gilroy, Kristin; Mens, Marjolein; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Jeuken, Ad

2016-04-01

More frequent and intense hydrologic events under climate change are expected to enhance water security and flood risk management challenges worldwide. Traditional planning approaches must be adapted to address climate change and develop solutions with an appropriate level of robustness and flexibility. The Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA) method is a novel planning approach embodying a suite of complementary methods, including decision scaling and adaptation pathways. Decision scaling offers a bottom-up approach to assess risk and tailors the complexity of the analysis to the problem at hand and the available capacity. Through adaptation pathway,s an array of future strategies towards climate robustness are developed, ranging in flexibility and immediacy of investments. Flexible pathways include transfer points to other strategies to ensure that the system can be adapted if future conditions vary from those expected. CRIDA combines these two approaches in a stakeholder driven process which guides decision makers through the planning and decision process, taking into account how the confidence in the available science, the consequences in the system, and the capacity of institutions should influence strategy selection. In this presentation, we will explain the CRIDA method and compare it to existing planning processes, such as the US Army Corps of Engineers Principles and Guidelines as well as Integrated Water Resources Management Planning. Then, we will apply the approach to a hypothetical case study for the Waas Region, a large downstream river basin facing rapid development threatened by increased flood risks. Through the case study, we will demonstrate how a stakeholder driven process can be used to evaluate system robustness to climate change; develop adaptation pathways for multiple objectives and criteria; and illustrate how varying levels of confidence, consequences, and capacity would play a role in the decision making process, specifically

The Relationship between Spirituality, Religiousness, and Career Adaptability

Science.gov (United States)

Duffy, Ryan D.; Blustein, David L.

2005-01-01

The present study examined the relationship between spirituality, religiousness, and career adaptability using a sample of undergraduate students (N=144). We proposed that higher levels of religiousness and spirituality would predict higher levels of career adaptability, defined in this study by career decision self-efficacy and career choice…

Shared decision-making and health for First Nations, Métis and Inuit women: a study protocol

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jull Janet

2012-12-01

Full Text Available Abstract Background Little is known about shared decision-making (SDM with Métis, First Nations and Inuit women (“Aboriginal women”. SDM is a collaborative process that engages health care professional(s and the client in making health decisions and is fundamental for informed consent and patient-centred care. The objective of this study is to explore Aboriginal women’s health and social decision-making needs and to engage Aboriginal women in culturally adapting an SDM approach. Methods Using participatory research principles and guided by a postcolonial theoretical lens, the proposed mixed methods research will involve three phases. Phase I is an international systematic review of the effectiveness of interventions for Aboriginal peoples’ health decision-making. Developed following dialogue with key stakeholders, proposed methods are guided by the Cochrane handbook and include a comprehensive search, screening by two independent researchers, and synthesis of findings. Phases II and III will be conducted in collaboration with Minwaashin Lodge and engage an urban Aboriginal community of women in an interpretive descriptive qualitative study. In Phase II, 10 to 13 Aboriginal women will be interviewed to explore their health/social decision-making experiences. The interview guide is based on the Ottawa Decision Support Framework and previous decisional needs assessments, and as appropriate may be adapted to findings from the systematic review. Digitally-recorded interviews will be transcribed verbatim and analyzed inductively to identify participant decision-making approaches and needs when making health/social decisions. In Phase III, there will be cultural adaptation of an SDM facilitation tool, the Ottawa Personal Decision Guide, by two focus groups consisting of five to seven Aboriginal women. The culturally adapted guide will undergo usability testing through individual interviews with five to six women who are about to make a health

Applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1994-01-01

Some applications of Bayesian decision theory to intelligent tutoring systems are considered. How the problem of adapting the appropriate amount of instruction to the changing nature of a student's capabilities during the learning process can be situated in the general framework of Bayesian decision

Ecological rationality: a framework for understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

Science.gov (United States)

Mata, Rui; Pachur, Thorsten; von Helversen, Bettina; Hertwig, Ralph; Rieskamp, Jörg; Schooler, Lael

2012-01-01

The notion of ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. Ecological rationality focuses the study of decision making on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people's decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environmental regularities? Research on aging suggests a number of changes in cognitive function, for instance, deficits in learning and memory that may impact decision-making skills. However, it has been shown that simple strategies can work well in many natural environments, which suggests that age-related deficits in strategy use may not necessarily translate into reduced decision quality. Consequently, we argue that predictions about the impact of aging on decision performance depend not only on how aging affects decision-relevant capacities but also on the decision environment in which decisions are made. In sum, we propose that the concept of the ecological rationality is crucial to understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

Contrasting frames in policy debates on climate change adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Dewulf, A.

2013-01-01

The process by which issues, decisions, or events acquire different meanings from different perspectives has been studied as framing. In policy debates about climate change adaptation, framing the adaptation issue is a challenge with potentially farreaching implications for the shape and success of

Adaptation of Agricultural and Food Systems to Climate Change: An Economic and Policy Perspective

OpenAIRE

John M. Antle; Susan M. Capalbo

2010-01-01

Adaptation of agricultural and food systems to climate change involves private and public investment decisions in the face of climate and policy uncertainties. The authors present a framework for analysis of adaptation as an investment, based on elements of the economics, finance, and ecological economics literatures. They use this framework to assess critically impact and adaptation studies, and discuss how research could be designed to support public and private investment decisions. They t...

An Adaptive Handover Prediction Scheme for Seamless Mobility Based Wireless Networks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ali Safa Sadiq

2014-01-01

Full Text Available We propose an adaptive handover prediction (AHP scheme for seamless mobility based wireless networks. That is, the AHP scheme incorporates fuzzy logic with AP prediction process in order to lend cognitive capability to handover decision making. Selection metrics, including received signal strength, mobile node relative direction towards the access points in the vicinity, and access point load, are collected and considered inputs of the fuzzy decision making system in order to select the best preferable AP around WLANs. The obtained handover decision which is based on the calculated quality cost using fuzzy inference system is also based on adaptable coefficients instead of fixed coefficients. In other words, the mean and the standard deviation of the normalized network prediction metrics of fuzzy inference system, which are collected from available WLANs are obtained adaptively. Accordingly, they are applied as statistical information to adjust or adapt the coefficients of membership functions. In addition, we propose an adjustable weight vector concept for input metrics in order to cope with the continuous, unpredictable variation in their membership degrees. Furthermore, handover decisions are performed in each MN independently after knowing RSS, direction toward APs, and AP load. Finally, performance evaluation of the proposed scheme shows its superiority compared with representatives of the prediction approaches.

Development and Standardization of the Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale: Application of Item Response Theory to the Assessment of Adaptive Behavior

Science.gov (United States)

Tassé, Marc J.; Schalock, Robert L.; Thissen, David; Balboni, Giulia; Bersani, Henry, Jr.; Borthwick-Duffy, Sharon A.; Spreat, Scott; Widaman, Keith F.; Zhang, Dalun; Navas, Patricia

2016-01-01

The Diagnostic Adaptive Behavior Scale (DABS) was developed using item response theory (IRT) methods and was constructed to provide the most precise and valid adaptive behavior information at or near the cutoff point of making a decision regarding a diagnosis of intellectual disability. The DABS initial item pool consisted of 260 items. Using IRT…

Adaptive governance : Towards a stable, accountable and responsive government

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.; van der Voort, H.G.

2016-01-01

Organizations are expected to adapt within a short time to deal with changes that might become disruptive if not adequately dealt with. Yet many organizations are unable to adapt effectively or quickly due to the established institutional arrangements and patterns of decision-making and

A holistic strategy for adaptive land management

Science.gov (United States)

Herrick, Jeffrey E.; Duniway, Michael C.; Pyke, David A.; Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Wills, Skye A.; Brown, Joel R.; Karl, Jason W.; Havstad, Kris M.

2012-01-01

Adaptive management is widely applied to natural resources management (Holling 1973; Walters and Holling 1990). Adaptive management can be generally defined as an iterative decision-making process that incorporates formulation of management objectives, actions designed to address these objectives, monitoring of results, and repeated adaptation of management until desired results are achieved (Brown and MacLeod 1996; Savory and Butterfield 1999). However, adaptive management is often criticized because very few projects ever complete more than one cycle, resulting in little adaptation and little knowledge gain (Lee 1999; Walters 2007). One significant criticism is that adaptive management is often used as a justification for undertaking actions with uncertain outcomes or as a surrogate for the development of specific, measurable indicators and monitoring programs (Lee 1999; Ruhl 2007).

Adaptation decision-making in the Nordic Countries: assessing the potential for joint action

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Juhola, Sirkku; Goodsite, Michael Evan; Davis, Marion

2014-01-01

on the issue. This paper explores the potential for Nordic cooperation on adaptation; specifically, for the development of a regional adaptation strategy. In particular, it addresses two questions (1) What is the current state of adaptation in the Nordic countries? and (2) What are the potential benefits...

Adaptive management for a turbulent future

Science.gov (United States)

Allen, Craig R.; Fontaine, J.J.; Pope, K.L.; Garmestani, A.S.

2011-01-01

The challenges that face humanity today differ from the past because as the scale of human influence has increased, our biggest challenges have become global in nature, and formerly local problems that could be addressed by shifting populations or switching resources, now aggregate (i.e., "scale up") limiting potential management options. Adaptive management is an approach to natural resource management that emphasizes learning through management based on the philosophy that knowledge is incomplete and much of what we think we know is actually wrong. Adaptive management has explicit structure, including careful elucidation of goals, identification of alternative management objectives and hypotheses of causation, and procedures for the collection of data followed by evaluation and reiteration. It is evident that adaptive management has matured, but it has also reached a crossroads. Practitioners and scientists have developed adaptive management and structured decision making techniques, and mathematicians have developed methods to reduce the uncertainties encountered in resource management, yet there continues to be misapplication of the method and misunderstanding of its purpose. Ironically, the confusion over the term "adaptive management" may stem from the flexibility inherent in the approach, which has resulted in multiple interpretations of "adaptive management" that fall along a continuum of complexity and a priori design. Adaptive management is not a panacea for the navigation of 'wicked problems' as it does not produce easy answers, and is only appropriate in a subset of natural resource management problems where both uncertainty and controllability are high. Nonetheless, the conceptual underpinnings of adaptive management are simple; there will always be inherent uncertainty and unpredictability in the dynamics and behavior of complex social-ecological systems, but management decisions must still be made, and whenever possible, we should incorporate

Adaptive error detection for HDR/PDR brachytherapy: Guidance for decision making during real-time in vivo point dosimetry

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Kertzscher Schwencke, Gustavo Adolfo Vladimir; Andersen, Claus E.; Tanderup, Kari

2014-01-01

Purpose:This study presents an adaptive error detection algorithm (AEDA) for real-timein vivo point dosimetry during high dose rate (HDR) or pulsed dose rate (PDR) brachytherapy (BT) where the error identification, in contrast to existing approaches, does not depend on an a priori reconstruction ......, and the AEDA’s capacity to distinguish between true and false error scenarios. The study further shows that the AEDA can offer guidance in decision making in the event of potential errors detected with real-time in vivo point dosimetry....... of the dosimeter position reconstruction. Given its nearly exclusive dependence on stable dosimeter positioning, the AEDA allows for a substantially simplified and time efficient real-time in vivo BT dosimetry implementation. Methods:In the event of a measured potential treatment error, the AEDA proposes the most...

DRUG EVALUATION AND DECISION MAKING IN CATALONIA: DEVELOPMENT AND VALIDATION OF A METHODOLOGICAL FRAMEWORK BASED ON MULTI-CRITERIA DECISION ANALYSIS (MCDA) FOR ORPHAN DRUGS.

Science.gov (United States)

Gilabert-Perramon, Antoni; Torrent-Farnell, Josep; Catalan, Arancha; Prat, Alba; Fontanet, Manel; Puig-Peiró, Ruth; Merino-Montero, Sandra; Khoury, Hanane; Goetghebeur, Mireille M; Badia, Xavier

2017-01-01

The aim of this study was to adapt and assess the value of a Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis (MCDA) framework (EVIDEM) for the evaluation of Orphan drugs in Catalonia (Catalan Health Service). The standard evaluation and decision-making procedures of CatSalut were compared with the EVIDEM methodology and contents. The EVIDEM framework was adapted to the Catalan context, focusing on the evaluation of Orphan drugs (PASFTAC program), during a Workshop with sixteen PASFTAC members. The criteria weighting was done using two different techniques (nonhierarchical and hierarchical). Reliability was assessed by re-test. The EVIDEM framework and methodology was found useful and feasible for Orphan drugs evaluation and decision making in Catalonia. All the criteria considered for the development of the CatSalut Technical Reports and decision making were considered in the framework. Nevertheless, the framework could improve the reporting of some of these criteria (i.e., "unmet needs" or "nonmedical costs"). Some Contextual criteria were removed (i.e., "Mandate and scope of healthcare system", "Environmental impact") or adapted ("population priorities and access") for CatSalut purposes. Independently of the weighting technique considered, the most important evaluation criteria identified for orphan drugs were: "disease severity", "unmet needs" and "comparative effectiveness", while the "size of the population" had the lowest relevance for decision making. Test-retest analysis showed weight consistency among techniques, supporting reliability overtime. MCDA (EVIDEM framework) could be a useful tool to complement the current evaluation methods of CatSalut, contributing to standardization and pragmatism, providing a method to tackle ethical dilemmas and facilitating discussions related to decision making.

Determinants of Farmers Adaptation to Climate Change. A Case from Nawalparasi District of Nepal

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeevan Lamichhane

2016-06-01

Full Text Available A field survey was conducted to study the factor that determines farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change in Deurali and Agyouli V.D.Cs of Nawalparasi District. Altogether 180 household, 90 from each V.D.C were selected randomly for the study. A logit regression model was employed in the study. However, in order to measure the magnitude of the impact of the explanatory variables on the decision of the farmer to adapt to climate change marginal effects were computed. The study uses a binary dependent variable taking the value 1 if the farmer adapted to climate change and 0 otherwise. A farmer is considered to have adapted to climate change if he/she has employed at least one of the adaptation strategies such as early and late planting, use of drought resistant crops, zero tillage operation, crop diversification, use of mulching and composting of weeds to control water loss and conserving moisture in the field. This current research considers the following as potential factors determining farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change; economically active members, education of the household head, farm size, annual cash earnings, access to credit, training and extension. Findings reveal that these factors influence farmers’ decisions to adapt to climate change in Nawalparasi District and marginal effects computed showed that per unit increase in these variables increased the probability of practicing different adaptation strategies by 4.3%, 31.4%, 3%, 1.5%, 17%, 66% respectively. The log likelihood was computed to be -43.45. Psuedo. R2 was calculated to be 39%.

Adaptive representations for reinforcement learning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Whiteson, S.

2010-01-01

This book presents new algorithms for reinforcement learning, a form of machine learning in which an autonomous agent seeks a control policy for a sequential decision task. Since current methods typically rely on manually designed solution representations, agents that automatically adapt their own

Framework for mapping the drivers of coastal vulnerability and spatial decision making for climate-change adaptation: A case study from Maharashtra, India.

Science.gov (United States)

Krishnan, Pandian; Ananthan, Pachampalayam Shanmugam; Purvaja, Ramachandran; Joyson Joe Jeevamani, Jeyapaul; Amali Infantina, John; Srinivasa Rao, Cherukumalli; Anand, Arur; Mahendra, Ranganalli Somashekharappa; Sekar, Iyyapa; Kareemulla, Kalakada; Biswas, Amit; Kalpana Sastry, Regulagedda; Ramesh, Ramachandran

2018-05-31

The impacts of climate change are of particular concern to the coastal region of tropical countries like India, which are exposed to cyclones, floods, tsunami, seawater intrusion, etc. Climate-change adaptation presupposes comprehensive assessment of vulnerability status. Studies so far relied either on remote sensing-based spatial mapping of physical vulnerability or on certain socio-economic aspects with limited scope for upscaling or replication. The current study is an attempt to develop a holistic and robust framework to assess the vulnerability of coastal India at different levels. We propose and estimate cumulative vulnerability index (CVI) as a function of exposure, sensitivity and adaptive capacity, at the village level, using nationally comparable and credible datasets. The exposure index (EI) was determined at the village level by decomposing the spatial multi-hazard maps, while sensitivity (SI) and adaptive capacity indices (ACI) were estimated using 23 indicators, covering social and economic aspects. The indicators were identified through the literature review, expert consultations, opinion survey, and were further validated through statistical tests. The socio-economic vulnerability index (SEVI) was constructed as a function of sensitivity and adaptive capacity for planning grassroot-level interventions and adaptation strategies. The framework was piloted in Sindhudurg, a coastal district in Maharashtra, India. It comprises 317 villages, spread across three taluks viz., Devgad, Malvan and Vengurla. The villages in Sindhudurg were ranked based on this multi-criteria approach. Based on CVI values, 92 villages (30%) in Sindhudurg were identified as highly vulnerable. We propose a decision tool for identifying villages vulnerable to changing climate, based on their level of sensitivity and adaptive capacity in a two-dimensional matrix, thus aiding in planning location-specific interventions. Here, vulnerability indicators are classified and designated as

THE MAKING OF DECISION MAKING

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Leonardo Yuji Tamura

2016-04-01

Full Text Available Quantum Electronics was a Brazilian startup in the 1990's that was acquired by an American equity fund in 2012. They are currently the largest manufacturer of vehicle tracking and infotainment systems. The company was founded by three college friends, who are currently executives at the company: Camilo Santos, Pedro Barbosa and Luana Correa. Edward Hutter was sent by the equity fund to take over the company’s finances, but is having trouble making organizational decisions with his colleagues. As a consultant, I was called to help them improve their decision making process and project prioritization. I adapted and deployed our firm's methodology, but, in the end, its adequacy is shown to be very much in question. The author of this case study intends to explore how actual organizational decisions rely on different decision models and their assumptions, .as well as demonstrate that a decision model is neither absolutely good nor bad as its quality is context dependent.

Space-time adaptive decision feedback neural receivers with data selection for high-data-rate users in DS-CDMA systems.

Science.gov (United States)

de Lamare, Rodrigo C; Sampaio-Neto, Raimundo

2008-11-01

A space-time adaptive decision feedback (DF) receiver using recurrent neural networks (RNNs) is proposed for joint equalization and interference suppression in direct-sequence code-division multiple-access (DS-CDMA) systems equipped with antenna arrays. The proposed receiver structure employs dynamically driven RNNs in the feedforward section for equalization and multiaccess interference (MAI) suppression and a finite impulse response (FIR) linear filter in the feedback section for performing interference cancellation. A data selective gradient algorithm, based upon the set-membership (SM) design framework, is proposed for the estimation of the coefficients of RNN structures and is applied to the estimation of the parameters of the proposed neural receiver structure. Simulation results show that the proposed techniques achieve significant performance gains over existing schemes.

On Organizational Adaptation via Dynamic Process Selection

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Handley, Holly A; Levis, Alexander H

2000-01-01

.... An executable organizational model composed of individual models of a five stage interacting decision maker is used to evaluate the effectiveness of the different adaptation strategies on organizational performance...

Mixture-based gatekeeping procedures in adaptive clinical trials.

Science.gov (United States)

Kordzakhia, George; Dmitrienko, Alex; Ishida, Eiji

2018-01-01

Clinical trials with data-driven decision rules often pursue multiple clinical objectives such as the evaluation of several endpoints or several doses of an experimental treatment. These complex analysis strategies give rise to "multivariate" multiplicity problems with several components or sources of multiplicity. A general framework for defining gatekeeping procedures in clinical trials with adaptive multistage designs is proposed in this paper. The mixture method is applied to build a gatekeeping procedure at each stage and inferences at each decision point (interim or final analysis) are performed using the combination function approach. An advantage of utilizing the mixture method is that it enables powerful gatekeeping procedures applicable to a broad class of settings with complex logical relationships among the hypotheses of interest. Further, the combination function approach supports flexible data-driven decisions such as a decision to increase the sample size or remove a treatment arm. The paper concludes with a clinical trial example that illustrates the methodology by applying it to develop an adaptive two-stage design with a mixture-based gatekeeping procedure.

Ecological rationality: a framework for understanding and aiding the aging decision maker

OpenAIRE

Mata, Rui; Pachur, Thorsten; von Helversen, Bettina; Hertwig, Ralph; Rieskamp, Jörg; Schooler, Lael

2012-01-01

The notion of ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. Ecological rationality focuses the study of decision making on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people’s decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environmental regularities...

Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

Science.gov (United States)

Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

2012-04-01

An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

Adaptation portfolios in water management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aerts, J.C.J.H.; Botzen, W.J.W.; Werners, S.

2015-01-01

This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in MPT;

Adaptive testing for making unidimensional and multidimensional classification decisions

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Groen, M.M.

2014-01-01

Computerized adaptive tests (CATs) were originally developed to obtain an efficient estimate of the examinee’s ability, but they can also be used to classify the examinee into one of two or more levels (e.g. master/non-master). These computerized classification tests have the advantage that they can

DECISION-MAKING ALIGNED WITH RAPID-CYCLE EVALUATION IN HEALTH CARE.

Science.gov (United States)

Schneeweiss, Sebastian; Shrank, William H; Ruhl, Michael; Maclure, Malcolm

2015-01-01

Availability of real-time electronic healthcare data provides new opportunities for rapid-cycle evaluation (RCE) of health technologies, including healthcare delivery and payment programs. We aim to align decision-making processes with stages of RCE to optimize the usefulness and impact of rapid results. Rational decisions about program adoption depend on program effect size in relation to externalities, including implementation cost, sustainability, and likelihood of broad adoption. Drawing on case studies and experience from drug safety monitoring, we examine how decision makers have used scientific evidence on complex interventions in the past. We clarify how RCE alters the nature of policy decisions; develop the RAPID framework for synchronizing decision-maker activities with stages of RCE; and provide guidelines on evidence thresholds for incremental decision-making. In contrast to traditional evaluations, RCE provides early evidence on effectiveness and facilitates a stepped approach to decision making in expectation of future regularly updated evidence. RCE allows for identification of trends in adjusted effect size. It supports adapting a program in midstream in response to interim findings, or adapting the evaluation strategy to identify true improvements earlier. The 5-step RAPID approach that utilizes the cumulating evidence of program effectiveness over time could increase policy-makers' confidence in expediting decisions. RCE enables a step-wise approach to HTA decision-making, based on gradually emerging evidence, reducing delays in decision-making processes after traditional one-time evaluations.

RODOS database adapter

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Xie Gang

1995-11-01

Integrated data management is an essential aspect of many automatical information systems such as RODOS, a real-time on-line decision support system for nuclear emergency management. In particular, the application software must provide access management to different commercial database systems. This report presents the tools necessary for adapting embedded SQL-applications to both HP-ALLBASE/SQL and CA-Ingres/SQL databases. The design of the database adapter and the concept of RODOS embedded SQL syntax are discussed by considering some of the most important features of SQL-functions and the identification of significant differences between SQL-implementations. Finally fully part of the software developed and the administrator's and installation guides are described. (orig.) [de

Complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC using highly adaptive fast mode decision based on macroblock motion activity

Science.gov (United States)

Abdellah, Skoudarli; Mokhtar, Nibouche; Amina, Serir

2015-11-01

The H.264/AVC video coding standard is used in a wide range of applications from video conferencing to high-definition television according to its high compression efficiency. This efficiency is mainly acquired from the newly allowed prediction schemes including variable block modes. However, these schemes require a high complexity to select the optimal mode. Consequently, complexity reduction in the H.264/AVC encoder has recently become a very challenging task in the video compression domain, especially when implementing the encoder in real-time applications. Fast mode decision algorithms play an important role in reducing the overall complexity of the encoder. In this paper, we propose an adaptive fast intermode algorithm based on motion activity, temporal stationarity, and spatial homogeneity. This algorithm predicts the motion activity of the current macroblock from its neighboring blocks and identifies temporal stationary regions and spatially homogeneous regions using adaptive threshold values based on content video features. Extensive experimental work has been done in high profile, and results show that the proposed source-coding algorithm effectively reduces the computational complexity by 53.18% on average compared with the reference software encoder, while maintaining the high-coding efficiency of H.264/AVC by incurring only 0.097 dB in total peak signal-to-noise ratio and 0.228% increment on the total bit rate.

Clinical factors and the decision to transfuse chronic dialysis patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Whitman, Cynthia B; Shreay, Sanatan; Gitlin, Matthew; van Oijen, Martijn G H; Spiegel, Brennan M R

2013-11-01

Red blood cell transfusion was previously the principle therapy for anemia in CKD but became less prevalent after the introduction of erythropoiesis-stimulating agents. This study used adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis to identify preferences and predictors of transfusion decision-making in CKD. A computerized adaptive choice-based conjoint survey was administered between June and August of 2012 to nephrologists, internists, and hospitalists listed in the American Medical Association Masterfile. The survey quantified the relative importance of 10 patient attributes, including hemoglobin levels, age, occult blood in stool, severity of illness, eligibility for transplant, iron indices, erythropoiesis-stimulating agents, cardiovascular disease, and functional status. Triggers of transfusions in common dialysis scenarios were studied, and based on adaptive choice-based conjoint-derived preferences, relative importance by performing multivariable regression to identify predictors of transfusion preferences was assessed. A total of 350 providers completed the survey (n=305 nephrologists; mean age=46 years; 21% women). Of 10 attributes assessed, absolute hemoglobin level was the most important driver of transfusions, accounting for 29% of decision-making, followed by functional status (16%) and cardiovascular comorbidities (12%); 92% of providers transfused when hemoglobin was 7.5 g/dl, independent of other factors. In multivariable regression, Veterans Administration providers were more likely to transfuse at 8.0 g/dl (odds ratio, 5.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.9 to 18.4). Although transplant eligibility explained only 5% of decision-making, nephrologists were five times more likely to value it as important compared with non-nephrologists (odds ratio, 5.2; 95% confidence interval, 2.4 to 11.1). Adaptive choice-based conjoint analysis was useful in predicting influences on transfusion decisions. Hemoglobin level, functional status, and cardiovascular comorbidities

Decision-making system for registration and prioritisation of potentially polluted sites adaptable for management of war damage risks

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lanczos, T.; Pedersen, K. E.

2002-01-01

We would like to present a decision-support system developed for identification and storing data concerning with potentially polluted sites and their prioritising. This system could also be adapted for reviewing and evaluation of the war damages. The operation of the system comprises of three procedures: data collection, data handling and the prioritisation of the sites. The relevant data could be collected from different sources, represented mainly by administrative institutions, by sending questionnaires to site owners/operators and by site visits. The collected data should be handled by appropriate database. For this purpose the Contaminated Land Module of the GeoEnviron database application was developed. This application is also designed for providing the preliminary risk assessment scores, which results are used for the site prioritisation. As an example implementation of this system, we shortly present our experiences from testing the system in Slovakia

A Framework for Making Sustainable Cleanup Decisions Using the KONVERGENCE Model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piet, Steven James; Dettmers, Dana Lee; Dakins, Maxine Ellen; Eide, Steven Arvid; Gibson, Patrick Lavern; Joe, Jeffrey Clark; Kerr, Thomas A; Nitschke, Robert Leon; Oswald, Kyle Blaine; Reisenauer, John Phillip

2002-08-01

The effects of closure decisions for used nuclear facilities can extend centuries into the future. Yet, the longevity of decisions made over the past half century has been poor. Our goal is an improved decision framework for decommissioning, stewardship, and waste management. This paper describes our overall framework. Companion papers describe the underlying philosophy of the KONVERGENCE Model for Sustainable Decisions1 and implications for a class of intractable decision problems.2 Where knowledge, values, and resources converge (the K, V, and R in KONVERGENCE), you will find a sustainable decision – a decision that works over time. Our approach clarifies what is needed to make and keep decisions over relevant time periods. The process guides participants through establishing the real problem, understanding the universes of knowledge, values, resources, and generating alternatives. We explore three classes of alternatives – reusable (e.g. greenfield), closed (e.g. entombed structures), and adaptable. After testing for konvergence of alternatives among knowledge, values, resources, we offer suggestions to diagnose divergence, to reduce divergence by refining alternatives to address identified weaknesses, and to plan to keep konvergence over the life of the decision. We believe that decisions made via this method will better stand the test of time – because it will be either acceptable to keep them unchanged or possible to adapt them as knowledge, values, and resources change.

Adaptive sensor fusion using genetic algorithms

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fitzgerald, D.S.; Adams, D.G.

1994-01-01

Past attempts at sensor fusion have used some form of Boolean logic to combine the sensor information. As an alteniative, an adaptive ''fuzzy'' sensor fusion technique is described in this paper. This technique exploits the robust capabilities of fuzzy logic in the decision process as well as the optimization features of the genetic algorithm. This paper presents a brief background on fuzzy logic and genetic algorithms and how they are used in an online implementation of adaptive sensor fusion

Adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Fiji.

Science.gov (United States)

Weeks, Rebecca; Jupiter, Stacy D

2013-12-01

Adaptive management of natural resources is an iterative process of decision making whereby management strategies are progressively changed or adjusted in response to new information. Despite an increasing focus on the need for adaptive conservation strategies, there remain few applied examples. We describe the 9-year process of adaptive comanagement of a marine protected area network in Kubulau District, Fiji. In 2011, a review of protected area boundaries and management rules was motivated by the need to enhance management effectiveness and the desire to improve resilience to climate change. Through a series of consultations, with the Wildlife Conservation Society providing scientific input to community decision making, the network of marine protected areas was reconfigured so as to maximize resilience and compliance. Factors identified as contributing to this outcome include well-defined resource-access rights; community respect for a flexible system of customary governance; long-term commitment and presence of comanagement partners; supportive policy environment for comanagement; synthesis of traditional management approaches with systematic monitoring; and district-wide coordination, which provided a broader spatial context for adaptive-management decision making. Co-Manejo Adaptativo de una Red de Áreas Marinas Protegidas en Fiyi. © 2013 The Authors. Conservation Biology published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc., on behalf of the Society for Conservation Biology.

Ecological Rationality: A Framework for Understanding and Aiding the Aging Decision Maker

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Rui eMata

2012-02-01

Full Text Available Ecological rationality sees human rationality as the result of the adaptive fit between the human mind and the environment. The concept of ecological rationality focuses the study of cognition on two key questions: First, what are the environmental regularities to which people’s decision strategies are matched, and how frequently do these regularities occur in natural environments? Second, how well can people adapt their use of specific strategies to particular environments? Research on aging suggests a number of changes in cognitive function, for instance, deficits in learning and memory that may impact decision-making skills. However, it has been shown that simple strategies can work well in many natural environments, which suggests that age-related deficits in strategy use may not necessarily translate into diminished decision performance. Consequently, we argue that predictions about the impact of aging on decision performance depend not only on how aging affects decision-relevant capacities but also on the decision ecology in which decisions are made. In sum, we propose that the concept of the ecological rationality is crucial to understanding and aiding the aging decision maker.

Decision-making under risk. An overview of some alternative utility theories

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pauwels, N.; Van Woensel, T.

1998-09-01

Decision-makers often have to take decisions with unknown consequences that depend on various events which on their turn can take place a certain chance. Under the given circumstances, the traditional decision criterion is based on the maximisation of the expected benefits. Experimental studies have however revealed important inconsistencies between decisions taken on the basis of this decision criterion on the one hand and the observed decisions on the other hand. The report gives an overview of a number of alternative theories extending or adapting the traditional theory in view of avoiding the observed inconsistencies

Designing Tools for Supporting User Decision-Making in e-Commerce

Science.gov (United States)

Sutcliffe, Alistair; Al-Qaed, Faisal

The paper describes a set of tools designed to support a variety of user decision-making strategies. The tools are complemented by an online advisor so they can be adapted to different domains and users can be guided to adopt appropriate tools for different choices in e-commerce, e.g. purchasing high-value products, exploring product fit to users’ needs, or selecting products which satisfy requirements. The tools range from simple recommenders to decision support by interactive querying and comparison matrices. They were evaluated in a scenario-based experiment which varied the users’ task and motivation, with and without an advisor agent. The results show the tools and advisor were effective in supporting users and agreed with the predictions of ADM (adaptive decision making) theory, on which the design of the tools was based.

Language Adaptive LVCSR Through Polyphone Decision Tree Specialization

Science.gov (United States)

2000-08-01

crossing rate. After cepstral mean subtraction a linear discriminant analysis 1Mandarin is given in character based error rate, Japanese in hiragana ...data. For this purpose we German GE 9173 71 132K 16.7 introduce a polyphone decision tree specialization method. Several Japanese JA 9096 108 212K...12.1 2. Multiple Languages German 11.8 61K 200 44.5 43 9.0 For our experiments we developed monolingual LVCSR sys- Japanese 10.0 22K 230 33.8 33 7.9

Integrating adaptive management and ecosystem services concepts to improve natural resource management: Challenges and opportunities

Science.gov (United States)

Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Boyd, James W.; Macauley, Molly K.; Scarlett, Lynn; Shapiro, Carl D.; Williams, Byron K.

2018-05-07

Executive Summary—OverviewNatural resource managers must make decisions that affect broad-scale ecosystem processes involving large spatial areas, complex biophysical interactions, numerous competing stakeholder interests, and highly uncertain outcomes. Natural and social science information and analyses are widely recognized as important for informing effective management. Chief among the systematic approaches for improving the integration of science into natural resource management are two emergent science concepts, adaptive management and ecosystem services. Adaptive management (also referred to as “adaptive decision making”) is a deliberate process of learning by doing that focuses on reducing uncertainties about management outcomes and system responses to improve management over time. Ecosystem services is a conceptual framework that refers to the attributes and outputs of ecosystems (and their components and functions) that have value for humans.This report explores how ecosystem services can be moved from concept into practice through connection to a decision framework—adaptive management—that accounts for inherent uncertainties. Simultaneously, the report examines the value of incorporating ecosystem services framing and concepts into adaptive management efforts.Adaptive management and ecosystem services analyses have not typically been used jointly in decision making. However, as frameworks, they have a natural—but to date underexplored—affinity. Both are policy and decision oriented in that they attempt to represent the consequences of resource management choices on outcomes of interest to stakeholders. Both adaptive management and ecosystem services analysis take an empirical approach to the analysis of ecological systems. This systems orientation is a byproduct of the fact that natural resource actions affect ecosystems—and corresponding societal outcomes—often across large geographic scales. Moreover, because both frameworks focus on

A Framework for a Decision Support System in a Hierarchical Extended Enterprise Decision Context

Science.gov (United States)

Boza, Andrés; Ortiz, Angel; Vicens, Eduardo; Poler, Raul

Decision Support System (DSS) tools provide useful information to decision makers. In an Extended Enterprise, a new goal, changes in the current objectives or small changes in the extended enterprise configuration produce a necessary adjustment in its decision system. A DSS in this context must be flexible and agile to make suitable an easy and quickly adaptation to this new context. This paper proposes to extend the Hierarchical Production Planning (HPP) structure to an Extended Enterprise decision making context. In this way, a framework for DSS in Extended Enterprise context is defined using components of HPP. Interoperability details have been reviewed to identify the impact in this framework. The proposed framework allows overcoming some interoperability barriers, identifying and organizing components for a DSS in Extended Enterprise context, and working in the definition of an architecture to be used in the design process of a flexible DSS in Extended Enterprise context which can reuse components for futures Extended Enterprise configurations.

Making it personal: Diversity and deliberation in climate adaptation planning

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Roopali Phadke

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The vulnerabilities and health burdens of climate change fall disproportionately upon lower income communities and communities of color. Yet the very groups who are most affected by climate change impacts are least likely to be involved in climate adaptation discussions. These communities face critical barriers to involvement including historical disenfranchisement, as well as a sense that climate change is distant and not personally relevant. Boundary organizations are increasingly playing an important role in bringing science to bear on policy decision-making with respect to climate change adaptation, an issue fraught with political and ideological tensions. Our project aimed to engage underrepresented communities in climate change adaptation decision-making using a neighborhood consensus conference model developed and tested in several diverse districts of Saint Paul, Minnesota. Our partnership, a “linked chain” of boundary organizations, devised a neighborhood consensus conference model to present best-available climate data as tangible, place-based scenarios. In so doing, we made climate change “personal” for those who remain outside of climate change planning discourses and opened an opportunity for them to assess their community’s vulnerabilities and communicate their priorities for public investment. Our neighborhood-based model built trust and social capital with local residents and allowed us to bring new voices into conversations around climate change adaptation concerns and priorities. We believe this work will have a long term impact on local climate adaptation planning decisions.

Can Biosemiotics be a “Science” if its Purpose is to be a Bridge between the Natural, Social and Human Sciences?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brier, Søren

2015-01-01

to be that the optimal type of knowledge science can produce about living system is to model them as machines. But the explicit goal of a Peircean semiotically based biosemiotics is (also) to model living systems as cognitive and communicative systems working on the basis of meaning and signification. These two concepts...... are not part of the mechanistic models of natural science today, not even of cognitive science. Barbieri tries to solve this problem by introducing a new concept of biological meaning that is separate from the Peircean biosemiotics and then add Peirce's semiotics on top. This article argues why this view...... is inconsistent on the grounds that Peirce's semiotic paradigm only gives meaning in its pragmaticist conception of a fallibilist view of science, which again is intrinsic connected to its non-mechanistic metaphysics of Tychism, Synechism and Agapism. The core of the biosemiotic enterprise is to establish another...

Generative Agents for Player Decision Modeling in Games

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Holmgård, Christoffer; Liapis, Antonios; Togelius, Julian

2014-01-01

This paper presents a method for modeling player decision making through the use of agents as AI-driven personas. The paper argues that artificial agents, as generative player models, have properties that allow them to be used as psyhometrically valid, abstract simulations of a human player......’s internal decision making processes. Such agents can then be used to interpret human decision making, as personas and playtesting tools in the game design process, as baselines for adapting agents to mimic classes of human players, or as believable, human-like opponents. This argument is explored...... in a crowdsourced decision making experiment, in which the decisions of human players are recorded in a small-scale dungeon themed puzzle game. Human decisions are compared to the decisions of a number of a priori defined “archetypical” agent-personas, and the humans are characterized by their likeness...

Adapting environmental management to uncertain but inevitable change.

Science.gov (United States)

Nicol, Sam; Fuller, Richard A; Iwamura, Takuya; Chadès, Iadine

2015-06-07

Implementation of adaptation actions to protect biodiversity is limited by uncertainty about the future. One reason for this is the fear of making the wrong decisions caused by the myriad future scenarios presented to decision-makers. We propose an adaptive management (AM) method for optimally managing a population under uncertain and changing habitat conditions. Our approach incorporates multiple future scenarios and continually learns the best management strategy from observations, even as conditions change. We demonstrate the performance of our AM approach by applying it to the spatial management of migratory shorebird habitats on the East Asian-Australasian flyway, predicted to be severely impacted by future sea-level rise. By accounting for non-stationary dynamics, our solution protects 25,000 more birds per year than the current best stationary approach. Our approach can be applied to many ecological systems that require efficient adaptation strategies for an uncertain future. © 2015 The Author(s) Published by the Royal Society. All rights reserved.

Psychological defense, ideological hideaway, or rational reckoning? The role of uncertainty in local adaptation to climate change

Science.gov (United States)

Moser, S. C.

2011-12-01

As adaptation planning is rising rapidly on the agenda of decision-makers, the need for adequate information to inform those decisions is growing. Locally relevant climate change (as well as related impacts and vulnerability) information, however, is difficult to obtain and that which can be obtained carries the burden of significant scientific uncertainty. This paper aims to assess how important such uncertainty is in adaptation planning, decision-making, and related stakeholder engagement. Does uncertainty actually hinder adaptation planning? Is scientific uncertainty used to postpone decisions reflecting ideologically agendas? Or is it a convenient defense against cognitive and affective engagement with the emerging and projected - and in some cases daunting - climate change risks? To whom does such uncertainty matter and how important is it relative to other challenges decision-makers and stakeholders face? The paper draws on four sources of information to answer these questions: (1) a statewide survey of California coastal managers conducted in summer 2011, (2) years of continual engagement with, and observation of, decision-makers in local adaptation efforts, (3) findings from focus groups with lay individuals in coastal California; and (4) a review of relevant adaptation literature to guide and contextualize the empirical research. The findings entail some "inconvenient truths" for those claiming critical technical or political importance. Rather, the insights suggest that some uncertainties matter more than others; they matter at certain times, but not at others; and they matter to some decision-makers, but not to others. Implications for scientists communicating and engaging with communities are discussed.

Ecological dynamics of continuous and categorical decision-making: the regatta start in sailing.

Science.gov (United States)

Araújo, Duarte; Davids, Keith; Diniz, Ana; Rocha, Luis; Santos, João Coelho; Dias, Gonçalo; Fernandes, Orlando

2015-01-01

Ecological dynamics of decision-making in the sport of sailing exemplifies emergent, conditionally coupled, co-adaptive behaviours. In this study, observation of the coupling dynamics of paired boats during competitive sailing showed that decision-making can be modelled as a self-sustained, co-adapting system of informationally coupled oscillators (boats). Bytracing the spatial-temporal displacements of the boats, time series analyses (autocorrelations, periodograms and running correlations) revealed that trajectories of match racing boats are coupled more than 88% of the time during a pre-start race, via continuous, competing co-adaptions between boats. Results showed that both the continuously selected trajectories of the sailors (12 years of age) and their categorical starting point locations were examples of emergent decisions. In this dynamical conception of decision-making behaviours, strategic positioning (categorical) and continuous displacement of a boat over the course in match-race sailing emerged as a function of interacting task, personal and environmental constraints. Results suggest how key interacting constraints could be manipulated in practice to enhance sailors' perceptual attunement to them in competition.

Critical concepts in adaptive clinical trials

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Park JJH

2018-03-01

Full Text Available Jay JH Park,1 Kristian Thorlund,2,3 Edward J Mills2,3 1Department of Medicine, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 2Department of Health Research Methods, Evidence, and Impact (HEI, McMaster University, Hamilton, ON, Canada; 3The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, Seattle, WA, USA Abstract: Adaptive clinical trials are an innovative trial design aimed at reducing resources, decreasing time to completion and number of patients exposed to inferior interventions, and improving the likelihood of detecting treatment effects. The last decade has seen an increasing use of adaptive designs, particularly in drug development. They frequently differ importantly from conventional clinical trials as they allow modifications to key trial design components during the trial, as data is being collected, using preplanned decision rules. Adaptive designs have increased likelihood of complexity and also potential bias, so it is important to understand the common types of adaptive designs. Many clinicians and investigators may be unfamiliar with the design considerations for adaptive designs. Given their complexities, adaptive trials require an understanding of design features and sources of bias. Herein, we introduce some common adaptive design elements and biases and specifically address response adaptive randomization, sample size reassessment, Bayesian methods for adaptive trials, seamless trials, and adaptive enrichment using real examples. Keywords: adaptive designs, response adaptive randomization, sample size reassessment, Bayesian adaptive trials, seamless trials, adaptive enrichment

Advanced intelligent computational technologies and decision support systems

CERN Document Server

Kountchev, Roumen

2014-01-01

This book offers a state of the art collection covering themes related to Advanced Intelligent Computational Technologies and Decision Support Systems which can be applied to fields like healthcare assisting the humans in solving problems. The book brings forward a wealth of ideas, algorithms and case studies in themes like: intelligent predictive diagnosis; intelligent analyzing of medical images; new format for coding of single and sequences of medical images; Medical Decision Support Systems; diagnosis of Down’s syndrome; computational perspectives for electronic fetal monitoring; efficient compression of CT Images; adaptive interpolation and halftoning for medical images; applications of artificial neural networks for real-life problems solving; present and perspectives for Electronic Healthcare Record Systems; adaptive approaches for noise reduction in sequences of CT images etc.

Decision Making and Revealed Preference

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

de la Rosa, Leonidas Enrique

If our decision-making processes are to some extent shaped by evolutionary pressures and our environment is different from that to which we adapted, some of our choices will not be in our best interest. But revealed preference is the only tool that we have so far to conduct a normative analysis...

Decision making across the life span

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Li, S.C.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.; Samanez-Larkin, G.R.

2014-01-01

Learning to choose adaptively between different behavioral options in order to reach goals is a pervasive task in life for people of all ages. Individuals are often confronted with complex, uncertain situations that nonetheless require decisive actions that would facilitate the pursuit of short-term

Simulated climate adaptation in storm-water systems: Evaluating the efficiency of within-system flexibility

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Adam D. McCurdy

Full Text Available Changes in regional temperature and precipitation patterns resulting from global climate change may adversely affect the performance of long-lived infrastructure. Adaptation may be necessary to ensure that infrastructure offers consistent service and remains cost effective. But long service times and deep uncertainty associated with future climate projections make adaptation decisions especially challenging for managers. Incorporating flexibility into systems can increase their effectiveness across different climate futures but can also add significant costs. In this paper we review existing work on flexibility in climate change adaptation of infrastructure, such as robust decision-making and dynamic adaptive pathways, apply a basic typology of flexibility, and test alternative strategies for flexibility in distributed infrastructure systems comprised of multiple emplacements of a common, long-lived element: roadway culverts. Rather than treating a system of dispersed infrastructure elements as monolithic, we simulate “options flexibility” in which inherent differences in individual elements is incorporated into adaptation decisions. We use a virtual testbed of highway drainage crossing structures to examine the performance under different climate scenarios of policies that allow for multiple adaptation strategies with varying timing based on individual emplacement characteristics. Results indicate that a strategy with options flexibility informed by crossing characteristics offers a more efficient method of adaptation than do monolithic policies. In some cases this results in more cost-effective adaptation for agencies building long-lived, climate-sensitive infrastructure, even where detailed system data and analytical capacity is limited. Keywords: Climate adaptation, Stormwater management, Adaptation pathways

Can biosemiotics be a "science" if its purpose is to be a bridge between the natural, social and human sciences?

Science.gov (United States)

Brier, Søren

2015-12-01

Central to the attempt to develop a biosemiotics has been the discussion of what it means to be scientific. In Marcello Barbieri's latest argument for leaving Peircean biosemiotics and creating an alternative code-biology the definition of what it means to be scientific plays a major role. For Barbieri "scientific knowledge is obtained by building machine-like models of what we observe in nature". Barbieri interestingly claims that - in combination with the empirical and experimental basis - mechanism is virtually equivalent to the scientific method. The consequences of this statement seem to be that the optimal type of knowledge science can produce about living system is to model them as machines. But the explicit goal of a Peircean semiotically based biosemiotics is (also) to model living systems as cognitive and communicative systems working on the basis of meaning and signification. These two concepts are not part of the mechanistic models of natural science today, not even of cognitive science. Barbieri tries to solve this problem by introducing a new concept of biological meaning that is separate from the Peircean biosemiotics and then add Peirce's semiotics on top. This article argues why this view is inconsistent on the grounds that Peirce's semiotic paradigm only gives meaning in its pragmaticist conception of a fallibilist view of science, which again is intrinsic connected to its non-mechanistic metaphysics of Tychism, Synechism and Agapism. The core of the biosemiotic enterprise is to establish another type of trans- and interdisciplinary wissenschaft than the received view of "science". Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

A multi-attribute approach to choosing adaptation strategies: Application to sea-level rise

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Smith, A.E.; Chu, H.Q.

1994-01-01

Selecting good adaptation strategies in anticipation of climate change is gaining increasing attention as it becomes increasingly clear that much of the likely change is already committed, and could not be avoided even with aggressive and immediate emissions reductions. Adaptation decision making will place special requirements on regional and local planners in the US and other countries, especially developing countries. Approaches, tools, and guidance will be useful to assist in an effective response to the challenge. This paper describes the value of using a multi-attribute approach for evaluating adaptation strategies and its implementation as a decision-support software tool to help planners understand and execute this approach. The multi-attribute approach described here explicitly addresses the fact that many aspects of the decision cannot be easily quantified, that future conditions are highly uncertain, and that there are issues of equity, flexibility, and coordination that may be as important to the decision as costs and benefits. The approach suggested also avoids trying to collapse information on all of the attributes to a single metric. Such metrics can obliterate insights about the nature of the trade-offs that must be made in choosing among very dissimilar types of responses to the anticipated threat of climate change. Implementation of such an approach requires management of much information, and an ability to easily manipulate its presentation while seeking acceptable trade-offs. The Adaptation Strategy Evaluator (ASE) was developed under funding from the US Environmental Protection Agency to provide user-friendly, PC-based guidance through the major steps of a multi-attribute evaluation. The initial application of ASE, and the focus of this paper, is adaptation to sea level rise. However, the approach can be easily adapted to any multi-attribute choice problem, including the range of other adaptation planning needs

Decision Making in the Connected Learning Environment (CLE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Anas Belahcen

2016-03-01

Full Text Available In the last years, we have witnessed to an increasingly heightened awareness of the potential benefits of a challenging and promising educational research area : Adaptive Learning [1]. It has become one of the central technologies in education [2] and was recently named, by Gartner, as the number one strategic technology to impact education in 2015 [3]. In fact, adaptive learning systems become more accessible to educational institutions, corporations, and individuals, however, the challenges encountered are more structural and operational rather than technological [4]. While a lot of research has focused on development and evaluation of technological aspects [5], serious questions remain about the motivation of learners [6],[7] and also the design of the content (or domain model [8],[9] including the learner's autonomy issues [9],[10],[11] and the lack of the learner's control [9],[12],[13]. In order to overcome those challenges, we propose CLE “Connected Learning Environment” which is an ubiquitous learning environment [14] that provide to the learners of this generation a learning environment adapted to their expectations and their lifestyle habits and stimulate also their motivation. As a pedagogical approach, CLE adopts the connectivism [15] and take advantage from its benefits (adaptation to the current technological advances [16], management of learning in communities [17], openness with respect to external resources[18], etc. and adapts this approach in a formal context even though the connectivism was conceived as an informal pedagogical approach [19][20]. CLE introduces a new pedagogical process including four phases detailed later (Knowledge construction, Decision making, Validation, Evaluation and the knowledge construction phase is characterized by the collaboration and communication between heterogeneous communities composed of humans and smart objects [14]. However, the ability to distinguish relevant information among the

Cognitive Processes in Decisions Under Risk Are Not the Same As in Decisions Under Uncertainty

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kirsten G Volz

2012-07-01

Full Text Available We deal with risk versus uncertainty, a distinction that is of fundamental importance for cognitive neuroscience yet largely neglected. In a world of risk (small world, all alternatives, consequences, and probabilities are known. In uncertain (large worlds, some of this information is unknown or unknowable. Most of cognitive neuroscience studies exclusively study the neural correlates for decisions under risk (e.g., lotteries, with the tacit implication that understanding these would lead to an understanding of decision making in general. First, we show that normative strategies for decisions under risk do not generalize to uncertain worlds, where simple heuristics are often the more accurate strategies. Second, we argue that the cognitive processes for making decisions in a world of risk are not the same as those for dealing with uncertainty. Because situations with known risks are the exception rather than the rule in human evolution, it is unlikely that our brains are adapted to them. We therefore suggest a paradigm shift towards studying decision processes in uncertain worlds and provide first examples.

On-line confidence monitoring during decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Dotan, Dror; Meyniel, Florent; Dehaene, Stanislas

2018-02-01

Humans can readily assess their degree of confidence in their decisions. Two models of confidence computation have been proposed: post hoc computation using post-decision variables and heuristics, versus online computation using continuous assessment of evidence throughout the decision-making process. Here, we arbitrate between these theories by continuously monitoring finger movements during a manual sequential decision-making task. Analysis of finger kinematics indicated that subjects kept separate online records of evidence and confidence: finger deviation continuously reflected the ongoing accumulation of evidence, whereas finger speed continuously reflected the momentary degree of confidence. Furthermore, end-of-trial finger speed predicted the post-decisional subjective confidence rating. These data indicate that confidence is computed on-line, throughout the decision process. Speed-confidence correlations were previously interpreted as a post-decision heuristics, whereby slow decisions decrease subjective confidence, but our results suggest an adaptive mechanism that involves the opposite causality: by slowing down when unconfident, participants gain time to improve their decisions. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Clues as information, the semiotic gap, and inferential investigative processes, or making a (very small) contribution to the new discipline, Forensic Semiotics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Sørensen, Bent; Thellefsen, Torkild Leo; Thellefsen, Martin Muderspach

2017-01-01

In this article, we try to contribute to the new discipline Forensic Semiotics – a discipline introduced by the Canadian polymath Marcel Danesi. We focus on clues as information and criminal investigative processes as inferential. These inferential (and Peircean) processes have a certain complexity...

Strengthening research's influence on adaptation policies in Africa

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

CCAA

decision-makers about climate change adaptation, and ensure partners' research contributions are taken into account. Our approach to supporting .... locally-based climate information centres improve planning and disaster risk management.

NASA Risk-Informed Decision Making Handbook

Science.gov (United States)

Dezfuli, Homayoon; Stamatelatos, Michael; Maggio, Gaspare; Everett, Christopher; Youngblood, Robert; Rutledge, Peter; Benjamin, Allan; Williams, Rodney; Smith, Curtis; Guarro, Sergio

2010-01-01

This handbook provides guidance for conducting risk-informed decision making in the context of NASA risk management (RM), with a focus on the types of direction-setting key decisions that are characteristic of the NASA program and project life cycles, and which produce derived requirements in accordance with existing systems engineering practices that flow down through the NASA organizational hierarchy. The guidance in this handbook is not meant to be prescriptive. Instead, it is meant to be general enough, and contain a sufficient diversity of examples, to enable the reader to adapt the methods as needed to the particular decision problems that he or she faces. The handbook highlights major issues to consider when making decisions in the presence of potentially significant uncertainty, so that the user is better able to recognize and avoid pitfalls that might otherwise be experienced.

Development and initial evaluation of a treatment decision dashboard.

Science.gov (United States)

Dolan, James G; Veazie, Peter J; Russ, Ann J

2013-04-21

For many healthcare decisions, multiple alternatives are available with different combinations of advantages and disadvantages across several important dimensions. The complexity of current healthcare decisions thus presents a significant barrier to informed decision making, a key element of patient-centered care.Interactive decision dashboards were developed to facilitate decision making in Management, a field marked by similarly complicated choices. These dashboards utilize data visualization techniques to reduce the cognitive effort needed to evaluate decision alternatives and a non-linear flow of information that enables users to review information in a self-directed fashion. Theoretically, both of these features should facilitate informed decision making by increasing user engagement with and understanding of the decision at hand. We sought to determine if the interactive decision dashboard format can be successfully adapted to create a clinically realistic prototype patient decision aid suitable for further evaluation and refinement. We created a computerized, interactive clinical decision dashboard and performed a pilot test of its clinical feasibility and acceptability using a multi-method analysis. The dashboard summarized information about the effectiveness, risks of side effects and drug-drug interactions, out-of-pocket costs, and ease of use of nine analgesic treatment options for knee osteoarthritis. Outcome evaluations included observations of how study participants utilized the dashboard, questionnaires to assess usability, acceptability, and decisional conflict, and an open-ended qualitative analysis. The study sample consisted of 25 volunteers - 7 men and 18 women - with an average age of 51 years. The mean time spent interacting with the dashboard was 4.6 minutes. Mean evaluation scores on scales ranging from 1 (low) to 7 (high) were: mechanical ease of use 6.1, cognitive ease of use 6.2, emotional difficulty 2.7, decision-aiding effectiveness 5

Design of Adaptive Policy Pathways under Deep Uncertainties

Science.gov (United States)

Babovic, Vladan

2013-04-01

The design of large-scale engineering and infrastructural systems today is growing in complexity. Designers need to consider sociotechnical uncertainties, intricacies, and processes in the long- term strategic deployment and operations of these systems. In this context, water and spatial management is increasingly challenged not only by climate-associated changes such as sea level rise and increased spatio-temporal variability of precipitation, but also by pressures due to population growth and particularly accelerating rate of urbanisation. Furthermore, high investment costs and long term-nature of water-related infrastructure projects requires long-term planning perspective, sometimes extending over many decades. Adaptation to such changes is not only determined by what is known or anticipated at present, but also by what will be experienced and learned as the future unfolds, as well as by policy responses to social and water events. As a result, a pathway emerges. Instead of responding to 'surprises' and making decisions on ad hoc basis, exploring adaptation pathways into the future provide indispensable support in water management decision-making. In this contribution, a structured approach for designing a dynamic adaptive policy based on the concepts of adaptive policy making and adaptation pathways is introduced. Such an approach provides flexibility which allows change over time in response to how the future unfolds, what is learned about the system, and changes in societal preferences. The introduced flexibility provides means for dealing with complexities of adaptation under deep uncertainties. It enables engineering systems to change in the face of uncertainty to reduce impacts from downside scenarios while capitalizing on upside opportunities. This contribution presents comprehensive framework for development and deployment of adaptive policy pathway framework, and demonstrates its performance under deep uncertainties on a case study related to urban

Adaptive spectrum decision framework for heterogeneous dynamic spectrum access networks

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Masonta, M

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Spectrum decision is the ability of a cognitive radio (CR) system to select the best available spectrum band to satisfy dynamic spectrum access network (DSAN) users¿ quality of service (QoS) requirements without causing harmful interference...

Sure I'm sure : Prefrontal oscillations support metacognitive monitoring of decision-making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wokke, M.E.; Cleeremans, A.; Ridderinkhof, K.R.

2017-01-01

Successful decision-making critically involves metacognitive processes such as monitoring and control of our decision process. Metacognition enables agents to adaptively modify on-going behavior and to determine what to do next in situations where external feedback is not (immediately) available.

Updating beliefs and combining evidence in adaptive forest management under climate change

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Yousefpour, Rasoul; Temperli, Christian; Bugmann, Harald

2013-01-01

We study climate uncertainty and how managers' beliefs about climate change develop and influence their decisions. We develop an approach for updating knowledge and beliefs based on the observation of forest and climate variables and illustrate its application for the adaptive management of an even...... variables may influence a decision maker's beliefs about climate development and thereby management decisions. While forest managers may be inclined to rely on observed forest variables to infer climate change and impacts, we found that observation of climate state, e.g. temperature or precipitation...... on when managers switch to forward-looking management schemes. Thus, robust climate adaptation policies may depend crucially on a better understanding of what factors influence managers' belief in climate change....

Models of behavioral change and adaptation

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rasouli, S.; Timmermans, H.J.P.; Zhang, J.

2017-01-01

This chapter explains and summarizes models of behavioral change and adaptation, which have received less application in the life choice analysis associated with urban policy. Related to various life choices, life trajectory events are major decisions with a relatively long-lasting impact, such as

Modeling of processes of an adaptive business management

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Karev Dmitry Vladimirovich

2011-04-01

Full Text Available On the basis of the analysis of systems of adaptive management board business proposed the original version of the real system of adaptive management, the basis of which used dynamic recursive model cash flow forecast and real data. Proposed definitions and the simulation of scales and intervals of model time in the control system, as well as the thresholds observations and conditions of changing (correction of the administrative decisions. The process of adaptive management is illustrated on the basis proposed by the author of the script of development of business.

A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions

Science.gov (United States)

Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

2015-01-01

People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others’ benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making. PMID:26460812

A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

Science.gov (United States)

Krajbich, Ian; Hare, Todd; Bartling, Björn; Morishima, Yosuke; Fehr, Ernst

2015-10-01

People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

Uncertainty assessment of climate change adaptation options in urban flash floods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Zhou, Qianqian; Arnbjerg-Nielsen, Karsten

2012-01-01

Introduction. Adaptation is necessary to cope with the increasing flood risk in cities due to climate change in many regions of the world. Decision marking of adaptation strategies often requires a comprehensive risk-based economic analysis to indicate the net benefits of proposed options. Priority...

Developing Resilient Urban Waterfronts : Integrating Adaptation into Urban Development and Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Veelen, P.C.; Deppisch, Sonja

2017-01-01

There is a growing attention for integrating climate change adaptation into policies, strategies and decision-making processes (e.g. mainstreaming). This paper explores to what extent climate adaptation can be integrated into processes of urban development and change, based on case study research in

Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis (CRIDA): A novel practical guidance for Climate Resilient Investments and Planning

Science.gov (United States)

Jeuken, Ad; Mendoza, Guillermo; Matthews, John; Ray, Patrick; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Gilroy, Kristin; Olsen, Rolf; Kucharski, John; Stakhiv, Gene; Cushing, Janet; Brown, Casey

2016-04-01

Engineers and water managers have always incorporated uncertainty in water resources operations, design and planning. In recent years, concern has been growing concern that many of the fundamental principles to address uncertainty in planning and design are insufficient for coping with unprecedented shifts in climate, especially given the long lifetimes of water investments - spanning decades, even centuries. Can we design and operate new flood risk management, energy, water supply and sanitation, and agricultural projects that are robust to shifts over 20, 50, or more years? Since about 2009, better approaches to planning and designing under climate uncertainty have been gaining ground worldwide. The main challenge is to operationalize these approaches and bring them from science to practice, embed them within the existing decision-making processes of particular institutions, and shift from highly specialized "boutique" applications to methods that result in consistent, replicable outcomes accessible to water managers worldwide. With CRIDA a serious step is taken to achieve these goals. CRIDA is built on two innovative but complementary approaches that have developed in isolation across the Atlantic over the past seven years: diagnosing and assessing risk (decision scaling), and developing sequential decision steps to compensate for uncertainty within regulatory / performance standards (adaptation pathways). First, the decision scaling or "bottom up" framework to climate change adaptation was first conceptualized during the US/Canada Great Lakes regulation study and has recently been placed in a decision-making context for water-related investments published by the World Bank Second, the adaptation pathways approach was developed in the Netherlands to cope with the level of climate uncertainty we now face. Adaptation pathways is a tool for maintaining options and flexibility while meeting operational goals by envisioning how sequences of decisions can be navigated

Fair adaptation to climate change

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Paavola, Jouni; Adger, W. Neil

2006-01-01

This article identifies social justice dilemmas associated with the necessity to adapt to climate change, examines how they are currently addressed by the climate change regime, and proposes solutions to overcome prevailing gaps and ambiguities. We argue that the key justice dilemmas of adaptation include responsibility for climate change impacts, the level and burden sharing of assistance to vulnerable countries for adaptation, distribution of assistance between recipient countries and adaptation measures, and fair participation in planning and making decisions on adaptation. We demonstrate how the climate change regime largely omits responsibility but makes a general commitment to assistance. However, the regime has so far failed to operationalise assistance and has made only minor progress towards eliminating obstacles for fair participation. We propose the adoption of four principles for fair adaptation in the climate change regime. These include avoiding dangerous climate change, forward-looking responsibility, putting the most vulnerable first and equal participation of all. We argue that a safe maximum standard of 400-500 ppm of CO 2 concentrations in the atmosphere and a carbon tax of $20-50 per carbon equivalent ton could provide the initial instruments for operationalising the principles. (author)

Procedural Rationality in the Decision-Making of Internationalizing SMEs

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hsieh, Linda; Elbanna, Said; Narooz, Rose

This paper contributes to the growing body of empirical work on how SME decision-makers decide to internationalize in two ways: first, it responds to recent calls for incorporating strategic decision-making literature into understanding SME internationalization decisions. Second, it provides a be...... a more rational decision-making procedure when they perceive a high level of international risk. The evidence also suggest that internationalization performance, planned internationalization, credit check, and decision team size are positively related to procedural rationality....... a better understanding of under what circumstances, SME decision-makers tend to follow a more rational approach toward internationalization decisions. Specifically, this paper examines a set of contextual variables (the level of perceived international risk, internationalization performance, planned versus...... ad hoc internationalization, credit check, distribution adaptation, and decision team size) and their influence on the extent of procedural rationality in SME internationalization decision-making process. The findings from a sample of 176 export-active SMEs show that decision-makers tend to follow...

Risk and Uncertainties, Analysis and Evaluation: Lessons for Adaptation and Integration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yohe, G.; Dowlatabadi, H.

1999-01-01

This paper draws ten lessons from analyses of adaptation to climate change under conditions of risk and uncertainty: (1) Socio-economic systems will likely respond most to extreme realizations of climate change. (2) Systems have been responding to variations in climate for centuries. (3) Future change will effect future citizens and their institutions. (4) Human systems can be the sources of surprise. (5) Perceptions of risk depend upon welfare valuations that depend upon expectations. (6) Adaptive decisions will be made in response to climate change and climate change policy. (7) Analysis of adaptive decisions should recognize the second-best context of those decisions. (8) Climate change offers opportunity as well as risk. (9) All plausible futures should be explored. (10) Multiple methodological approaches should be accommodated. These lessons support two pieces of advice for the Third Assessment Report: (1) Work toward consensus, but not at the expense of thorough examination and reporting of the 'tails' of the distributions of the future. (2) Integrated assessment is only one unifying methodology; others that can better accommodate those tails should be encouraged and embraced. 12 refs

Adaptation and mitigation: synergies and trade-offs

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Thambiran, Tirusha

2017-10-01

Full Text Available ) that indicates that there are many complex interactions and interdependencies between climate change impacts, adaptation and mitigation. It is increasingly recognised that decisions that are made now could lock in development trajectories for a long time... parks and tree planting along streets), which promotes adaptation to heat stress due to warming while also leading to carbon sequestration in trees and soil. A multi-species, multi-purpose approach would help reduce the vulnerability of trees...

Adaptive models for decision making in production management for thermoelectrical plants; Modelos adaptativos para suporte a decisao na gestao da producao de unidades termeletricas

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Cavalcante, Carlos Arthur Mattos Teixeira; Nascimento, Ricardo Santos; Pacheco, Luciana de Almeida; Ferreira, Adonias Magdiel S.; Leite, Weliton Emanuel S. [Universidade Federal da Bahia (UFBA), Salvador, BA (Brazil). Escola Politecnica; Barretto, Sergio Torres Sa [PETROBRAS S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

2008-07-01

The development of technologies for the efficient production management of increasingly complex and dynamic systems has proven been a competitive differential for businesses world-class. The integrated management systems are currently among the areas of knowledge more defendants by the different branches of human activity. These systems has widely used mathematical modeling and optimization methods, through which it is feasible identify the optimal operational status, which can be translated as the minimum cost, maximum profit or minimum use of equipment, besides other goals. Also, they could measure the technical-economic consequences to operate in an operational status different from optimal. Thus, integrated systems management tools has been increasingly adopted in decision-support in production units. This paper proposes a methodology for the development of adaptive models, embedded in integrated management. This research also incorporates a software development, called Production Planning and Control of Thermo Electrical Co-Generation Unit that, connected to industrial plants' supervision layer, adapt its model in real time. (author)

Using Data to Understand How to Better Design Adaptive Learning

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Min; Kang, Jina; Zou, Wenting; Lee, Hyeyeon; Pan, Zilong; Corliss, Stephanie

2017-01-01

There is much enthusiasm in higher education about the benefits of adaptive learning and using big data to investigate learning processes to make data-informed educational decisions. The benefits of adaptive learning to achieve personalized learning are obvious. Yet, there lacks evidence-based research to understand how data such as user behavior…

Decision support tools : midterm review report Knowledge for Climate Theme 8

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ierland, van E.C.

2012-01-01

The KfC program Decision Support Tools aims at improving tools for design and evaluation of adaptation strategies with a special focus on spatial planning and cross cutting issues. The program focuses on three core elements 1. tools for formulation of the adaptation task, based on climate scenarios

Adaptation in the context of technology development and transfer

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Olhoff, Anne

2015-01-01

and transfer. It summarizes what technologies for adaptation are, how they relate to development, and what their role is in adaptation. It subsequently highlights a number of policy and research issues that could be important to inform future policy. The commentary has two key messages. First, it argues...... that informed policy decisions on technology development and transfer to enhance adaptation require systematic assessments of the findings in the theoretical and empirical literature. Second, in light of the potential for overlap between processes for adaptation and processes for technologies for adaptation......Starting from a summary of key developments under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) related to adaptation and technologies, the commentary provides an initial review of the available literature relevant to adaptation in the context of technology development...

Informing Adaptation Decisions: What Do We Need to Know and What Do We Need to Do?

Science.gov (United States)

Pulwarty, R. S.; Webb, R. S.

2014-12-01

The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC Reports (SREX, AR5) and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for better information to support planning under changing rates of extremes event occurrence. This demand has focused on mechanisms used to respond to past variability and change, including, integrated resource management (watersheds, coasts), infrastructure design, information systems, technological optimization, financial risk management, and behavioral and institutional change. Climate inputs range from static site design statistics (return periods) to dynamic, emergent thresholds and transitions preceded by steep response curves and punctuated equilibria. Tradeoffs are evident in the use of risk-based anticipatory strategies vs. resilience measures. In such settings, annual decision calendars for operational requirements can confound adaptation expectations. Key knowledge assessment questions include: (1) How predictable are potential impacts of events in the context of other stressors, (2) how is action to anticipate such impacts informed, and (3) How often should criteria for "robustness" be reconsidered? To illustrate, we will discuss the climate information needs and uses for two areas of concern for both short and long-term risks (i) climate and disaster risk financing, and (ii) watershed management. The presentation will focus on the climate information needed for (1) improved monitoring, modeling and methods for understanding and analyzing exposure risks, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds across climate time and space scales, (4) embedding annual decision calendars in the context of longer-term risk management, (5) gaming experiments to show the net benefits of new information. We will conclude with a discussion of the essential climate variables needed to implement services-delivery and development efforts such

A Governing Framework for Climate Change Adaptation in the Built Environment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Daniel A. Mazmanian

2013-12-01

Full Text Available Developing an approach to governing adaptation to climate change is severely hampered by the dictatorship of the present when the needs of future generations are inadequately represented in current policy making. We posit this problem as a function of the attributes of adaptation policy making, including deep uncertainty and nonstationarity, where past observations are not reliable predictors of future outcomes. Our research links organizational decision-making attributes with adaptation decision making and identifies cases in which adaptation actions cause spillovers, free riding, and distributional impacts. We develop a governing framework for adaptation that we believe will enable policy, planning, and major long-term development decisions to be made appropriately at all levels of government in the face of the deep uncertainty and nonstationarity caused by climate change. Our framework requires that approval of projects with an expected life span of 30 years or more in the built environment include minimum building standards that integrate forecasted climate change impacts from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC intermediate scenario. The intermediate IPCC scenario must be downscaled to include local or regional temperature, water availability, sea level rise, susceptibility to forest fires, and human habitation impacts to minimize climate-change risks to the built environment. The minimum standard is systematically updated every six years to facilitate learning by formal and informal organizations. As a minimum standard, the governance framework allows jurisdictions to take stronger actions to increase their climate resilience and thus maintain system flexibility.

Performativity / Expressivity: The Mobile Micro Screen and its Subject

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Verhoeff, N.

2014-01-01

Informed by a tradition of cinema and visual culture studies on the one hand, and science and technology studies and new materialism on the other, we mobilize Peircean semiotics in order to theorize new media technologies and related practices. Our question is, in what way performativity and

Adaptation improves face trustworthiness discrimination

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Bruce D Keefe

2013-06-01

Full Text Available Adaptation to facial characteristics, such as gender and viewpoint, has been shown to both bias our perception of faces and improve facial discrimination. In this study, we examined whether adapting to two levels of face trustworthiness improved sensitivity around the adapted level. Facial trustworthiness was manipulated by morphing between trustworthy and untrustworthy prototypes, each generated by morphing eight trustworthy and eight untrustworthy faces respectively. In the first experiment, just-noticeable differences (JNDs were calculated for an untrustworthy face after participants adapted to an untrustworthy face, a trustworthy face, or did not adapt. In the second experiment, the three conditions were identical, except that JNDs were calculated for a trustworthy face. In the third experiment we examined whether adapting to an untrustworthy male face improved discrimination to an untrustworthy female face. In all experiments, participants completed a two-interval forced-choice adaptive staircase procedure, in which they judged which face was more untrustworthy. JNDs were derived from a psychometric function fitted to the data. Adaptation improved sensitivity to faces conveying the same level of trustworthiness when compared to no adaptation. When adapting to and discriminating around a different level of face trustworthiness there was no improvement in sensitivity and JNDs were equivalent to those in the no adaptation condition. The improvement in sensitivity was found to occur even when adapting to a face with different gender and identity. These results suggest that adaptation to facial trustworthiness can selectively enhance mechanisms underlying the coding of facial trustworthiness to improve perceptual sensitivity. These findings have implications for the role of our visual experience in the decisions we make about the trustworthiness of other individuals.

Ignorance- versus evidence-based decision making: a decision time analysis of the recognition heuristic.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilbig, Benjamin E; Pohl, Rüdiger F

2009-09-01

According to part of the adaptive toolbox notion of decision making known as the recognition heuristic (RH), the decision process in comparative judgments-and its duration-is determined by whether recognition discriminates between objects. By contrast, some recently proposed alternative models predict that choices largely depend on the amount of evidence speaking for each of the objects and that decision times thus depend on the evidential difference between objects, or the degree of conflict between options. This article presents 3 experiments that tested predictions derived from the RH against those from alternative models. All experiments used naturally recognized objects without teaching participants any information and thus provided optimal conditions for application of the RH. However, results supported the alternative, evidence-based models and often conflicted with the RH. Recognition was not the key determinant of decision times, whereas differences between objects with respect to (both positive and negative) evidence predicted effects well. In sum, alternative models that allow for the integration of different pieces of information may well provide a better account of comparative judgments. (c) 2009 APA, all rights reserved.

Generation companies decision-making modeling by linear control theory

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, Gerald B.

2010-01-01

This paper proposes four decision-making procedures to be employed by electric generating companies as part of their bidding strategies when competing in an oligopolistic market: naive, forward, adaptive, and moving average expectations. Decision-making is formulated in a dynamic framework by using linear control theory. The results reveal that interactions among all GENCOs affect market dynamics. Several numerical examples are reported, and conclusions are presented. (author)

Facilitating Adaptive Management in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

John A. Wiens

2017-07-01

Full Text Available https://doi.org/10.15447/sfews.2017v15iss2art3Uncertainties in understanding ecosystems increase the risk that management will fail to achieve desired results. Adaptive management is a structured, iterative application of science-based knowledge to reduce uncertainties and build flexibility into decision-making. However, adaptive management is more easily planned than implemented, and it is only beginning to be applied in the California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta. We draw from two assessments of adaptive management in the Delta and examples of its use elsewhere to suggest how the process can be facilitated. Although a highly structured adaptive-management process may not always be needed, several elements are essential. Adaptive management should begin by clearly identifying the problem, goals, and objectives; recognizing uncertainties; identifying decision points and alternative approaches; recognizing when adjustments are needed and having the flexibility to make them; and considering societal and political constraints. Model complexity should be matched to that of the system and management needs; experiments can help unravel causal relationships. Monitoring, analyses, and syntheses require comprehensive data-management systems. More frequent and organized communications among scientists, managers, stakeholders, and decision-makers are necessary. We propose the establishment of an “Adaptive Management Team” to coordinate efforts across the management spectrum of the Delta and to provide guidance and link individual projects to shared approaches and experiences. Reliable long-term support will be needed to assess results of management actions, adjust approaches where improvement is likely, and strive toward the legislated goals of enhancing the Delta ecosystem while also providing reliable water supplies to much of California, and doing both these things in a manner that protects values of the Delta as a place where people live and

A Common Mechanism Underlying Food Choice and Social Decisions.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ian Krajbich

2015-10-01

Full Text Available People make numerous decisions every day including perceptual decisions such as walking through a crowd, decisions over primary rewards such as what to eat, and social decisions that require balancing own and others' benefits. The unifying principles behind choices in various domains are, however, still not well understood. Mathematical models that describe choice behavior in specific contexts have provided important insights into the computations that may underlie decision making in the brain. However, a critical and largely unanswered question is whether these models generalize from one choice context to another. Here we show that a model adapted from the perceptual decision-making domain and estimated on choices over food rewards accurately predicts choices and reaction times in four independent sets of subjects making social decisions. The robustness of the model across domains provides behavioral evidence for a common decision-making process in perceptual, primary reward, and social decision making.

On Rationality of Decision Models Incorporating Emotion-Related Valuing and Hebbian Learning

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Treur, J.; Umair, M.

2011-01-01

In this paper an adaptive decision model based on predictive loops through feeling states is analysed from the perspective of rationality. Four different variations of Hebbian learning are considered for different types of connections in the decision model. To assess the extent of rationality, a

Adaptive Multidimensional Scaling : The Spatial Representation of Brand Consideration and Dissimilarity Judgments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bijmolt, T.H.A.; Wedel, M.; DeSarbo, W.S.

2002-01-01

We propose Adaptive Multidimensional Scaling (AMDS) for simultaneously deriving a brand map and market segments using consumer data on cognitive decision sets and brand dissimilarities.In AMDS, the judgment task is adapted to the individual respondent: dissimilarity judgments are collected only for

The Dynamics of Vulnerability and Implications for Climate Change Adaptation: Lessons from Urban Water Management

Science.gov (United States)

Dilling, L.; Daly, M.; Travis, W.; Wilhelmi, O.; Klein, R.; Kenney, D.; Ray, A. J.; Miller, K.

2013-12-01

Recent reports and scholarship have suggested that adapting to current climate variability may represent a "no regrets" strategy for adapting to climate change. Filling "adaptation deficits" and other approaches that rely on addressing current vulnerabilities are of course helpful for responding to current climate variability, but we find here that they are not sufficient for adapting to climate change. First, following a comprehensive review and unique synthesis of the natural hazards and climate adaptation literatures, we advance six reasons why adapting to climate variability is not sufficient for adapting to climate change: 1) Vulnerability is different at different levels of exposure; 2) Coping with climate variability is not equivalent to adaptation to longer term change; 3) The socioeconomic context for vulnerability is constantly changing; 4) The perception of risk associated with climate variability does not necessarily promote adaptive behavior in the face of climate change; 5) Adaptations made to short term climate variability may reduce the flexibility of the system in the long term; and 6) Adaptive actions may shift vulnerabilities to other parts of the system or to other people. Instead we suggest that decision makers faced with choices to adapt to climate change must consider the dynamics of vulnerability in a connected system-- how choices made in one part of the system might impact other valued outcomes or even create new vulnerabilities. Furthermore we suggest that rather than expressing climate change adaptation as an extension of adaptation to climate variability, the research and practice communities would do well to articulate adaptation as an imperfect policy, with tradeoffs and consequences and that decisions be prioritized to preserve flexibility be revisited often as climate change unfolds. We then present the results of a number of empirical studies of decision making for drought in urban water systems in the United States to understand

Identifying product development crises: The potential of adaptive heuristics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Münzberger, C.; Stingl, Verena; Oehmen, Josef

2017-01-01

This paper introduces adaptive heuristics as a tool to identify crises in design projects and highlights potential applications of these heuristics as decision support tool for crisis identification. Crises may emerge slowly or suddenly, and often have ambiguous signals. Thus the identification...... for the application of heuristics in design sciences. To achieve this, the paper compares crises to 'business as usual', and presents sixteen indicators for emerging crises. These indicators are potential cues for adaptive heuristics. Specifically three adaptive heuristics, One-single-cue, Fast-and-Frugal-Trees...

Clinical and genetic correlates of decision making in anorexia nervosa.

Science.gov (United States)

Tenconi, Elena; Degortes, Daniela; Clementi, Maurizio; Collantoni, Enrico; Pinato, Claudia; Forzan, Monica; Cassina, Matteo; Santonastaso, Paolo; Favaro, Angela

2016-01-01

Decision-making (DM) abilities have been found to be impaired in anorexia nervosa (AN), but few data are available about the characteristics and correlates of this cognitive function. The aim of the present study was to provide data on DM functioning in AN using both veridical and adaptive paradigms. While in veridical DM tasks, the individual's ability to predict a true/false response is measured, adaptive DM is the ability to consider both internal and external demands in order to make a good choice, in the absence of a single true "correct" answer. The participants were 189 women, of whom 91 were eating-disordered patients with a lifetime diagnosis of anorexia nervosa, and 98 were healthy women. All the participants underwent clinical, neuropsychological, and genetic assessment. The cognitive evaluation included a set of neuropsychological tasks and two decision-making tests: The Iowa Gambling Task and the Cognitive Bias Task. Anorexia nervosa patients showed significantly poorer performances on both decision-making tasks than healthy women. The Cognitive Bias Task revealed that anorexia nervosa patients employed significantly more context-independent decision-making strategies, which were independent from diagnostic subtype, handedness, education, and psychopathology. In the whole sample (patients and controls), Cognitive Bias Task performance was independently predicted by lifetime anorexia nervosa diagnosis, body mass index at assessment, and 5-HTTLPR genotype. Patients displayed poor decision-making functioning in both veridical and adaptive situations. The difficulties detected in anorexia nervosa individuals may affect not only the ability to consider the future outcomes of their actions (leading to "myopia for the future"), but also the capacity to update and review one's own mindset according to new environmental stimuli.

Using Ontology to Drive an Adaptive Learning Interface

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Andrew Crapo

2004-10-01

Full Text Available Intelligent, adaptive interfaces are a pre-requisite to elevating computer-based applications to the realm of collaborative decision support in complex, relatively open-ended domains such as logistics and planning. This is because the composition and effective presentation of even the most useful information must be tailored to constantly changing circumstances. Our objective is to not only achieve an adaptive human-machine interface, but to imbue the software with a significant portion of the responsibility for effectively controlling the adaptation, freeing the user from unnecessary distraction and making the human-machine relationship more collaborative in nature. The foundational concepts of interface adaptation are discussed and a specific logistics application is described as an example.

Decision Making in Concurrent Multitasking: Do People Adapt to Task Interference?

Science.gov (United States)

Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A.; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P.; van Rijn, Hedderik

2013-01-01

While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process. PMID:24244527

Decision making in concurrent multitasking: do people adapt to task interference?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Menno Nijboer

Full Text Available While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the trials. This primary task had to be combined with a secondary task requiring either working memory or visual attention, resulting in different types of interference. Before each trial, participants were asked to choose which secondary task they wanted to perform concurrently with the primary task. We predicted that if people seek to maximize performance or minimize effort required to perform the dual task, they choose task combinations that minimize interference. While performance data showed that the predicted optimal task combinations indeed resulted in minimal interference between tasks, the preferential choice data showed that a third of participants did not show any adaptation, and for the remainder it took a considerable number of trials before the optimal task combinations were chosen consistently. On the basis of these results we argue that, while in principle people are able to adapt their behavior according to multitasking demands, selection of the most efficient combination of strategies is not an automatic process.

Gender differences in farmers' responses to climate change adaptation in Yongqiao District, China.

Science.gov (United States)

Jin, Jianjun; Wang, Xiaomin; Gao, Yiwei

2015-12-15

This study examines the gender differences in farmers' responses to climate change adaption in Yongqiao District, China. A random sampling technique was used to select 220 household heads, while descriptive statistics and binary logit models were used to analyze the data obtained from the households. We determine that male and female respondents are not significantly different in their knowledge and perceptions of climate change, but there is a gender difference in adopting climate change adaptation measures. Male-headed households are more likely to adopt new technology for water conservation and to increase investment in irrigation infrastructure. The research also indicates that the adaptation decisions of male and female heads are influenced by different sets of factors. The findings of this research help to elucidate the determinants of climate change adaptation decisions for male and female-headed households and the strategic interventions necessary for effective adaptation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Adaptive management in the U.S. National Wildlife Refuge System: Science-management partnerships for conservation delivery

Science.gov (United States)

Moore, C.T.; Lonsdorf, E.V.; Knutson, M.G.; Laskowski, H.P.; Lor, S.K.

2011-01-01

Adaptive management is an approach to recurrent decision making in which uncertainty about the decision is reduced over time through comparison of outcomes predicted by competing models against observed values of those outcomes. The National Wildlife Refuge System (NWRS) of the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service is a large land management program charged with making natural resource management decisions, which often are made under considerable uncertainty, severe operational constraints, and conditions that limit ability to precisely carry out actions as intended. The NWRS presents outstanding opportunities for the application of adaptive management, but also difficult challenges. We describe two cooperative programs between the Fish and Wildlife Service and the U.S. Geological Survey to implement adaptive management at scales ranging from small, single refuge applications to large, multi-refuge, multi-region projects. Our experience to date suggests three important attributes common to successful implementation: a vigorous multi-partner collaboration, practical and informative decision framework components, and a sustained commitment to the process. Administrators in both agencies should consider these attributes when developing programs to promote the use and acceptance of adaptive management in the NWRS. ?? 2010 .

Dynamics of Individual and Collective Agricultural Adaptation to Water Scarcity

Science.gov (United States)

Burchfield, E. K.; Gilligan, J. M.

2016-12-01

Drought and water scarcity are challenging agricultural systems around the world. We draw on extensive field-work conducted with paddy farmers in rural Sri Lanka to study adaptations to water scarcity, including switching to less water-intensive crops, farming collectively on shared land, and turning to groundwater by digging wells. We explore how variability in climate affects agricultural decision-making at the community and individual levels using three decision-making heuristics, each characterized by an objective function: risk-averse expected utility, regret-adjusted expected utility, and prospect theory loss-aversion. We also assess how the introduction of individualized access to irrigation water with wells affects long-standing community-based drought mitigation practices. Results suggest that the growth of well-irrigation may produce sudden disruptions to community-based adaptations, but that this depends on the mental models farmers use to think about risk and make decisions under uncertainty.

Using Direct Policy Search to Identify Robust Strategies in Adapting to Uncertain Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

Science.gov (United States)

Garner, G. G.; Keller, K.

2017-12-01

Sea-level rise poses considerable risks to coastal communities, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Decision makers are faced with deeply uncertain sea-level projections when designing a strategy for coastal adaptation. The traditional methods have provided tremendous insight into this decision problem, but are often silent on tradeoffs as well as the effects of tail-area events and of potential future learning. Here we reformulate a simple sea-level rise adaptation model to address these concerns. We show that Direct Policy Search yields improved solution quality, with respect to Pareto-dominance in the objectives, over the traditional approach under uncertain sea-level rise projections and storm surge. Additionally, the new formulation produces high quality solutions with less computational demands than the traditional approach. Our results illustrate the utility of multi-objective adaptive formulations for the example of coastal adaptation, the value of information provided by observations, and point to wider-ranging application in climate change adaptation decision problems.

Treatment of human-computer interface in a decision support system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Heger, A.S.; Duran, F.A.; Cox, R.G.

1992-01-01

One of the most challenging applications facing the computer community is development of effective adaptive human-computer interface. This challenge stems from the complex nature of the human part of this symbiosis. The application of this discipline to the environmental restoration and waste management is further complicated due to the nature of environmental data. The information that is required to manage environmental impacts of human activity is fundamentally complex. This paper will discuss the efforts at Sandia National Laboratories in developing the adaptive conceptual model manager within the constraint of the environmental decision-making. A computer workstation, that hosts the Conceptual Model Manager and the Sandia Environmental Decision Support System will also be discussed

TECRA: C2 Application of Adaptive Automation Theory

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-01

1 TECRA: C2 Application of Adaptive Automation Theory Ewart J. de Visser 1,2 , Melanie LeGoullon 1 , Don Horvath 1 , Gershon Weltman 1 , Amos...this second trip served to inform a modified version of Klein , Calderwood, and MacGregor’s [7] Critical Decision Method Cognitive Task Analysis (CTA...NSN:1550-01-538-9256, EIC:ICB, January 9. [7] Klein , G. A., Calderwood, R., & MacGregor, D. (1989). Critical decision method for eliciting

Fuzzy inference game approach to uncertainty in business decisions and market competitions.

Science.gov (United States)

Oderanti, Festus Oluseyi

2013-01-01

The increasing challenges and complexity of business environments are making business decisions and operations more difficult for entrepreneurs to predict the outcomes of these processes. Therefore, we developed a decision support scheme that could be used and adapted to various business decision processes. These involve decisions that are made under uncertain situations such as business competition in the market or wage negotiation within a firm. The scheme uses game strategies and fuzzy inference concepts to effectively grasp the variables in these uncertain situations. The games are played between human and fuzzy players. The accuracy of the fuzzy rule base and the game strategies help to mitigate the adverse effects that a business may suffer from these uncertain factors. We also introduced learning which enables the fuzzy player to adapt over time. We tested this scheme in different scenarios and discover that it could be an invaluable tool in the hand of entrepreneurs that are operating under uncertain and competitive business environments.

Interactive Genetic Algorithm - An Adaptive and Interactive Decision Support Framework for Design of Optimal Groundwater Monitoring Plans

Science.gov (United States)

Babbar-Sebens, M.; Minsker, B. S.

2006-12-01

In the water resources management field, decision making encompasses many kinds of engineering, social, and economic constraints and objectives. Representing all of these problem dependant criteria through models (analytical or numerical) and various formulations (e.g., objectives, constraints, etc.) within an optimization- simulation system can be a very non-trivial issue. Most models and formulations utilized for discerning desirable traits in a solution can only approximate the decision maker's (DM) true preference criteria, and they often fail to consider important qualitative and incomputable phenomena related to the management problem. In our research, we have proposed novel decision support frameworks that allow DMs to actively participate in the optimization process. The DMs explicitly indicate their true preferences based on their subjective criteria and the results of various simulation models and formulations. The feedback from the DMs is then used to guide the search process towards solutions that are "all-rounders" from the perspective of the DM. The two main research questions explored in this work are: a) Does interaction between the optimization algorithm and a DM assist the system in searching for groundwater monitoring designs that are robust from the DM's perspective?, and b) How can an interactive search process be made more effective when human factors, such as human fatigue and cognitive learning processes, affect the performance of the algorithm? The application of these frameworks on a real-world groundwater long-term monitoring (LTM) case study in Michigan highlighted the following salient advantages: a) in contrast to the non-interactive optimization methodology, the proposed interactive frameworks were able to identify low cost monitoring designs whose interpolation maps respected the expected spatial distribution of the contaminants, b) for many same-cost designs, the interactive methodologies were able to propose multiple alternatives

Adapting to rates versus amounts of climate change: a case of adaptation to sea-level rise

Science.gov (United States)

Shayegh, Soheil; Moreno-Cruz, Juan; Caldeira, Ken

2016-10-01

Adaptation is the process of adjusting to climate change in order to moderate harm or exploit beneficial opportunities associated with it. Most adaptation strategies are designed to adjust to a new climate state. However, despite our best efforts to curtail greenhouse gas emissions, climate is likely to continue changing far into the future. Here, we show how considering rates of change affects the projected optimal adaptation strategy. We ground our discussion with an example of optimal investment in the face of continued sea-level rise, presenting a quantitative model that illustrates the interplay among physical and economic factors governing coastal development decisions such as rate of sea-level rise, land slope, discount rate, and depreciation rate. This model shows that the determination of optimal investment strategies depends on taking into account future rates of sea-level rise, as well as social and political constraints. This general approach also applies to the development of improved strategies to adapt to ongoing trends in temperature, precipitation, and other climate variables. Adaptation to some amount of change instead of adaptation to ongoing rates of change may produce inaccurate estimates of damages to the social systems and their ability to respond to external pressures.

On complex adaptive systems and terrorism

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmed, E.; Elgazzar, A.S.; Hegazi, A.S.

2005-01-01

Complex adaptive systems (CAS) are ubiquitous in nature. They are basic in social sciences. An overview of CAS is given with emphasize on the occurrence of bad side effects to seemingly 'wise' decisions. Hence application to terrorism is given. Some conclusions on how to deal with this phenomena are proposed

Regional Interdependence in Adaptation to Sea Level Rise and Coastal Flooding

Science.gov (United States)

Stacey, M. T.; Lubell, M.; Hummel, M.; Wang, R. Q.; Barnard, P.; Erikson, L. H.; Herdman, L.; Pozdnukhov, A.; Sheehan, M.

2017-12-01

Projections of sea level rise may differ in the pace of change, but there is clear consensus that coastal communities will be facing more frequent and severe flooding events in the coming century. As communities adapt to future conditions, infrastructure systems will be developed, modified and abandoned, with important consequences for services and resilience. Whether action or inaction is pursued, the decisions made by an individual community regarding a single infrastructure system have implications that extend spatially and temporally due to geographic and infrastructure system interactions. At the same time, there are a number of barriers to collective or coordinated action that inhibit regional solutions. This interplay between local actions and regional responses is one of the great challenges facing decision-makers grappling with both local and regional climate-change adaptation. In this talk, I present case studies of the San Francisco Bay Area that examine how shoreline infrastructure, transporation sytems and decision-making networks interact to define the regional response to local actions and the local response to regional actions. I will characterize the barriers that exist to regional solutions, and characterize three types of interdependence that may motivate decision-makers to overcome those barriers. Using these examples, I will discuss the importance of interdisciplinary analyses that integrate the natural sciences, engineering and the social science to climate change adaptation more generally.

Will current probabilistic climate change information, as such, improve adaptation?

Science.gov (United States)

Lopez, A.; Smith, L. A.

2012-04-01

Probabilistic climate scenarios are currently being provided to end users, to employ as probabilities in adaptation decision making, with the explicit suggestion that they quantify the impacts of climate change relevant to a variety of sectors. These "probabilities" are, however, rather sensitive to the assumptions in, and the structure of the modelling approaches used to generate them. It is often argued that stakeholders require probabilistic climate change information to adequately evaluate and plan adaptation pathways. On the other hand, some circumstantial evidence suggests that on the ground decision making rarely uses well defined probability distributions of climate change as inputs. Nevertheless it is within this context of probability distributions of climate change that we discuss possible drawbacks of supplying information that, while presented as robust and decision relevant, , is in fact unlikely to be so due to known flaws both in the underlying models and in the methodology used to "account for" those known flaws. How might one use a probability forecast that is expected to change in the future, not due to a refinement in our information but due to fundamental flaws in its construction? What then are the alternatives? While the answer will depend on the context of the problem at hand, a good approach will be strongly informed by the timescale of the given planning decision, and the consideration of all the non-climatic factors that have to be taken into account in the corresponding risk assessment. Using a water resources system as an example, we illustrate an alternative approach to deal with these challenges and make robust adaptation decisions today.

On flexible CAD of adaptive control and identification algorithms

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Christensen, Anders; Ravn, Ole

1988-01-01

a total redesign of the system within each sample. The necessary design parameters are evaluated and a decision vector is defined, from which the identification algorithm can be generated by the program. Using the decision vector, a decision-node tree structure is built up, where the nodes define......SLLAB is a MATLAB-family software package for solving control and identification problems. This paper concerns the planning of a general-purpose subroutine structure for solving identification and adaptive control problems. A general-purpose identification algorithm is suggested, which allows...

Decision-making without a brain: how an amoeboid organism solves the two-armed bandit.

Science.gov (United States)

Reid, Chris R; MacDonald, Hannelore; Mann, Richard P; Marshall, James A R; Latty, Tanya; Garnier, Simon

2016-06-01

Several recent studies hint at shared patterns in decision-making between taxonomically distant organisms, yet few studies demonstrate and dissect mechanisms of decision-making in simpler organisms. We examine decision-making in the unicellular slime mould Physarum polycephalum using a classical decision problem adapted from human and animal decision-making studies: the two-armed bandit problem. This problem has previously only been used to study organisms with brains, yet here we demonstrate that a brainless unicellular organism compares the relative qualities of multiple options, integrates over repeated samplings to perform well in random environments, and combines information on reward frequency and magnitude in order to make correct and adaptive decisions. We extend our inquiry by using Bayesian model selection to determine the most likely algorithm used by the cell when making decisions. We deduce that this algorithm centres around a tendency to exploit environments in proportion to their reward experienced through past sampling. The algorithm is intermediate in computational complexity between simple, reactionary heuristics and calculation-intensive optimal performance algorithms, yet it has very good relative performance. Our study provides insight into ancestral mechanisms of decision-making and suggests that fundamental principles of decision-making, information processing and even cognition are shared among diverse biological systems. © 2016 The Authors.

Normalized value coding explains dynamic adaptation in the human valuation process.

Science.gov (United States)

Khaw, Mel W; Glimcher, Paul W; Louie, Kenway

2017-11-28

The notion of subjective value is central to choice theories in ecology, economics, and psychology, serving as an integrated decision variable by which options are compared. Subjective value is often assumed to be an absolute quantity, determined in a static manner by the properties of an individual option. Recent neurobiological studies, however, have shown that neural value coding dynamically adapts to the statistics of the recent reward environment, introducing an intrinsic temporal context dependence into the neural representation of value. Whether valuation exhibits this kind of dynamic adaptation at the behavioral level is unknown. Here, we show that the valuation process in human subjects adapts to the history of previous values, with current valuations varying inversely with the average value of recently observed items. The dynamics of this adaptive valuation are captured by divisive normalization, linking these temporal context effects to spatial context effects in decision making as well as spatial and temporal context effects in perception. These findings suggest that adaptation is a universal feature of neural information processing and offer a unifying explanation for contextual phenomena in fields ranging from visual psychophysics to economic choice.

Subnational Adaptation Finance Allocation: Comparing Decentralized and Devolved Political Institutions in Kenya

OpenAIRE

Sam Barrett

2015-01-01

Adaptation finance is designed to help vulnerable populations withstand effects of climate variability and change. However, levels of vulnerability seldom determine finance distribution. Political and economic preferences of national and local government decision-makers tend to direct funding streams. This article takes an institutional approach to adaptation finance allocation by comparing decentralized and devolved local governance structures managing adaptation finance in Kenya before and ...

Career Decision-Making Difficulties of Turkish Adolescents

Science.gov (United States)

Bacanli, Feride

2016-01-01

The purposes of this study are (1) to adapt the Career Decision-Making Difficulties Questionnaire (CDDQ) to Turkish high school students and (2) to examine gender differences, grade differences, and differences between "decided" and "undecided" students. The sample consisted of 2509 adolescent students. The results showed that…

A minimax sequential procedure in the context of computerized adaptive mastery testing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vos, Hendrik J.

1997-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to derive optimal rules for variable-length mastery tests in case three mastery classification decisions (nonmastery, partial mastery, and mastery) are distinguished. In a variable-length or adaptive mastery test, the decision is to classify a subject as a master, a

Getting Beyond First Base: Science-Society Communication for Climate Adaptation

Science.gov (United States)

Garfin, G. M.

2010-12-01

At a 2009 international workshop on transboundary climate and water issues, a former World Bank official and current academic mentioned that “crisis, risk and uncertainty” are the three words that motivate decision-makers to act. However, decade-scale climate variability and trend-driven climate changes are phenomena characterized by creeping onset, diffuse and non-synchronous impacts, and complexity. Thus, there is a balancing act to addressing the complexity of uncertainties, while adequately assessing risk, and keeping the potential for crisis in focus without creating a “Chicken Little” situation. This presentation examines translational science approaches to three stages in the continuum from initial communication to societal action: raising awareness, building capacity, and making progress toward action. We examine the roles of scientists, knowledge brokers, decision makers, and the general public in the context of climate services. Although there is no “one size fits all” science communication method, we argue that best practices require that scientists pay particular attention to cultural and political sensitivities associated with decision contexts. We give examples from seasonal forecast communication, drought planning, climate literacy and education needs assessments, and the nexus of climate adaptation planning and uncertainty. In general, we find that constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong links between (a) predictions, impacts and solutions and (b) global to regional to local spatial scales. Often building partnerships for moving science information from observations to knowledge to decisions requires discussion support, a concept borrowed from Australian colleagues, which describes a multi-faceted and undervalued aspect of moving forward in adaptation planning: clarifying plausible cascades of interactions leading to potential impacts. Discussion support also fosters

Untangling Risk in Water Supply Systems: What Factors Drive Long-term Adaptation?

Science.gov (United States)

Zeff, H. B.; Lin, L.; Band, L. E.; Reed, P. M.; Characklis, G. W.

2016-12-01

Deeply uncertain factors like climate change, the hydrologic impacts of urbanization, forest evolution, and long-term demand forecasts make water supply planning a `wicked' problem. The traditional technique of assessing risk based on historical observations can be inadequate in the face of environmental non-stationarity. However, competing models and limited observational data make it difficult for decision makers and experts to agree on how much uncertainty should be built into analyses of risk, particularly at the timescales relevant to long-term investments in water infrastructure. Further, the physical connectivity of these deeply uncertain processes create inter-related systems, amplifying the challenges of a `worst case scenario'. The development of adaptive systems and planning processes provide solutions that have been shown to meet technical, environmental, and social objectives at lower costs. Instead of developing plans with fixed targets for the timing of actions, adaptive plans develop risk metrics and thresholds that are able to integrate new information to determine when conditions reach a `tipping point' which necessitates action. It is an open question as to how new information can be best integrated into the decision-making process (i.e. how much weight do we give new observations relative to the historical record), but a better understanding of the way the relevant systems are expected to evolve and change over time could inform these decisions. In this study, we use linked, dynamic models of temperature and precipitation changes, forest evolution, urbanization, hydrology, and water demand to develop scenarios for an adaptive water management framework that uses risk-based metrics to make short- and long-term decisions. The impact of individual environmental processes on the adaptive capability of this management framework is evaluated through problem formulations that successively increase the complexity of the uncertainty scenarios. Although

Portfolios of adaptation investments in water management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Aerts, Jeroen C.J.H.; Botzen, Wouter; Werners, Saskia E.

2015-01-01

This study explores how Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) can guide investment decisions in integrated water resources management (IWRM) and climate change adaptation under uncertainty. The objectives of the paper are to: (i) explain the concept of diversification to reduce risk, as formulated in

Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change : Agricultural ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

10 juin 2007 ... Madagascar has completed its national plan of action for adapting to climate change. Several actors and decision-makers - agricultural policymakers, regional rural development managers, emergency services coordinators - are involved in the implementation of the plan. Unfortunately, they are far from ...

Simulation-based algorithms for Markov decision processes

CERN Document Server

Chang, Hyeong Soo; Fu, Michael C; Marcus, Steven I

2013-01-01

Markov decision process (MDP) models are widely used for modeling sequential decision-making problems that arise in engineering, economics, computer science, and the social sciences.  Many real-world problems modeled by MDPs have huge state and/or action spaces, giving an opening to the curse of dimensionality and so making practical solution of the resulting models intractable.  In other cases, the system of interest is too complex to allow explicit specification of some of the MDP model parameters, but simulation samples are readily available (e.g., for random transitions and costs). For these settings, various sampling and population-based algorithms have been developed to overcome the difficulties of computing an optimal solution in terms of a policy and/or value function.  Specific approaches include adaptive sampling, evolutionary policy iteration, evolutionary random policy search, and model reference adaptive search. This substantially enlarged new edition reflects the latest developments in novel ...

Selecting decision strategies: the differential role of affect.

Science.gov (United States)

Scheibehenne, Benjamin; von Helversen, Bettina

2015-01-01

Many theories on cognition assume that people adapt their decision strategies depending on the situation they face. To test if and how affect guides the selection of decision strategies, we conducted an online study (N = 166), where different mood states were induced through video clips. Results indicate that mood influenced the use of decision strategies. Negative mood, in particular anger, facilitated the use of non-compensatory strategies, whereas positive mood promoted compensatory decision rules. These results are in line with the idea that positive mood broadens the focus of attention and thus increases the use of compensatory decision strategies that take many pieces of information into account, whereas negative mood narrows the focus of attention and thus fosters non-compensatory strategies that rely on a selective use of information. The results further indicate that gaining a deeper theoretical understanding of the cognitive mechanisms that govern decision processes requires taking emotions into account.

The Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative: Climate Resilient Local Governments

Science.gov (United States)

Foster, J. G.

2008-12-01

Local governments, the first responders to public health, safety and environmental hazards, must act now to lessen vulnerabilities to climate change. They must plan for and invest in "adapting" to inevitable impacts such as flood, fire, and draught that will occur notwithstanding best efforts to mitigate climate change. CCAP's Urban Leaders Adaptation Initiative is developing a framework for informed decision making on climate adaptation. Looking ahead to projected climate impacts and 'back casting' can identify what is needed now to both reduce greenhouse gas emissions and build local resiliency to climate change. CCAP's partnership with King County (WA), Chicago, Los Angeles, Miami-Dade County (FL), Milwaukee, Nassau County (NY), Phoenix, San Francisco, and Toronto is advancing policy discussions to ensure that state and local governments consider climate change when making decisions about infrastructure, transportation, land use, and resource management. Through the Initiative, local leaders will incorporate climate change into daily urban management and planning activities, proactively engage city and county managers and the public in developing solutions, and build community resilience. One goal is to change both institutional and public attitudes and behaviors. Determining appropriate adaptation strategies for each jurisdiction requires Asking the Climate Question: "How does what we are doing increase our resilience to climate change?" Over the next three years, the Initiative will design and implement specific adaptation plans, policies and 'catalytic' projects, collect and disseminate "best practices," and participate in framing national climate policy discussions. In the coming years, policy-makers will have to consider climate change in major infrastructure development decisions. If they are to be successful and have the resources they need, national climate change policy and emerging legislation will have to support these communities. The Urban Leaders

Climate change adaptation under uncertainty in the developing world: A case study of sea level rise in Kiribati

Science.gov (United States)

Donner, S. D.; Webber, S.

2011-12-01

Climate change is expected to have the greatest impact in parts of the developing world. At the 2010 meeting of U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change in Cancun, industrialized countries agreed in principle to provide US$100 billion per year by 2020 to assist the developing world respond to climate change. This "Green Climate Fund" is a critical step towards addressing the challenge of climate change. However, the policy and discourse on supporting adaptation in the developing world remains highly idealized. For example, the efficacy of "no regrets" adaptation efforts or "mainstreaming" adaptation into decision-making are rarely evaluated in the real world. In this presentation, I will discuss the gap between adaptation theory and practice using a multi-year case study of the cultural, social and scientific obstacles to adapting to sea level rise in the Pacific atoll nation of Kiribati. Our field research reveals how scientific and institutional uncertainty can limit international efforts to fund adaptation and lead to spiraling costs. Scientific uncertainty about hyper-local impacts of sea level rise, though irreducible, can at times limit decision-making about adaptation measures, contrary to the notion that "good" decision-making practices can incorporate scientific uncertainty. Efforts to improve institutional capacity must be done carefully, or they risk inadvertently slowing the implementation of adaptation measures and increasing the likelihood of "mal"-adaptation.

Adaptation policy in hard coal mining. Die Anpassungspolitik im Steinkohlenbergbau

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brink, H J; Haas, H; Jochum, E; Muellendorff, R; Rolshoven, H

1981-01-01

The book points out the necessity of balancing the output of hard coal mines. Detailed analyses of marketing conditions serve as a decision aid for business policy. Production and sales trends in German hard coal mining, instruments of adaptation to quantitative changes in sales, and empirical investigations of adaptation instruments in the underground part of the Goettelborn mine are reviewed.

Decision-Tree Models of Categorization Response Times, Choice Proportions, and Typicality Judgments

Science.gov (United States)

Lafond, Daniel; Lacouture, Yves; Cohen, Andrew L.

2009-01-01

The authors present 3 decision-tree models of categorization adapted from T. Trabasso, H. Rollins, and E. Shaughnessy (1971) and use them to provide a quantitative account of categorization response times, choice proportions, and typicality judgments at the individual-participant level. In Experiment 1, the decision-tree models were fit to…

Extracting principles for information management adaptability during crisis response : A dynamic capability view

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bharosa, N.; Janssen, M.F.W.H.A.

2010-01-01

During crises, relief agency commanders have to make decisions in a complex and uncertain environment, requiring them to continuously adapt to unforeseen environmental changes. In the process of adaptation, the commanders depend on information management systems for information. Yet there are still

Successful adaptation to climate change across scales

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Adger, W.N.; Arnell, N.W.; University of Southampton; Tompkins, E.L.; University of East Anglia, Norwich; University of Southampton

2005-01-01

Climate change impacts and responses are presently observed in physical and ecological systems. Adaptation to these impacts is increasingly being observed in both physical and ecological systems as well as in human adjustments to resource availability and risk at different spatial and societal scales. We review the nature of adaptation and the implications of different spatial scales for these processes. We outline a set of normative evaluative criteria for judging the success of adaptations at different scales. We argue that elements of effectiveness, efficiency, equity and legitimacy are important in judging success in terms of the sustainability of development pathways into an uncertain future. We further argue that each of these elements of decision-making is implicit within presently formulated scenarios of socio-economic futures of both emission trajectories and adaptation, though with different weighting. The process by which adaptations are to be judged at different scales will involve new and challenging institutional processes. (author)

What Does it Take to Produce Interpretation?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Brier, Søren; Joslyn, Cliff

2013-01-01

, and to go beyond the complex systems, emergence, self-organization, and informational paradigms, and also the selfish gene theory of Dawkins and the Peircean pragmaticist semiotic theory built on the simultaneous types of evolution. As such it is a new and bold attempt to use semiotics to solve the problems...

Adapting to the effects of climate change on Inuit health.

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, James D; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-06-01

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks-one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context.

Information search and decision making: effects of age and complexity on strategy use.

Science.gov (United States)

Queen, Tara L; Hess, Thomas M; Ennis, Gilda E; Dowd, Keith; Grühn, Daniel

2012-12-01

The impact of task complexity on information search strategy and decision quality was examined in a sample of 135 young, middle-aged, and older adults. We were particularly interested in the competing roles of fluid cognitive ability and domain knowledge and experience, with the former being a negative influence and the latter being a positive influence on older adults' performance. Participants utilized 2 decision matrices, which varied in complexity, regarding a consumer purchase. Using process tracing software and an algorithm developed to assess decision strategy, we recorded search behavior, strategy selection, and final decision. Contrary to expectations, older adults were not more likely than the younger age groups to engage in information-minimizing search behaviors in response to increases in task complexity. Similarly, adults of all ages used comparable decision strategies and adapted their strategies to the demands of the task. We also examined decision outcomes in relation to participants' preferences. Overall, it seems that older adults utilize simpler sets of information primarily reflecting the most valued attributes in making their choice. The results of this study suggest that older adults are adaptive in their approach to decision making and that this ability may benefit from accrued knowledge and experience. 2013 APA, all rights reserved

A new decision sciences for complex systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Lempert, Robert J

2002-05-14

Models of complex systems can capture much useful information but can be difficult to apply to real-world decision-making because the type of information they contain is often inconsistent with that required for traditional decision analysis. New approaches, which use inductive reasoning over large ensembles of computational experiments, now make possible systematic comparison of alternative policy options using models of complex systems. This article describes Computer-Assisted Reasoning, an approach to decision-making under conditions of deep uncertainty that is ideally suited to applying complex systems to policy analysis. The article demonstrates the approach on the policy problem of global climate change, with a particular focus on the role of technology policies in a robust, adaptive strategy for greenhouse gas abatement.

Collaborative use of geodesign tools to support decision-making on adaptation to climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Eikelboom, T.; Janssen, R.

2017-01-01

Spatial planners around the world need to make climate change adaptation plans. Climate adaptation planning requires combining spatial information with stakeholder values. This study demonstrates the potential of geodesign tools as a mean to integrate spatial analysis with stakeholder participation

Investment in flood protection measures under climate change uncertainty. An investment decision

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bruin, Karianne de

2012-11-01

Recent river flooding in Europe has triggered debates among scientists and policymakers on future projections of flood frequency and the need for adaptive investments, such as flood protection measures. Because there exists uncertainty about the impact of climate change of flood risk, such investments require a careful analysis of expected benefits and costs. The objective of this paper is to show how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in flood protection measures. We develop a model that simulates optimal decision making in flood protection, it incorporates flexible timing of investment decisions and scientific uncertainty on the extent of climate change impacts. This model allows decision-makers to cope with the uncertain impacts of climate change on the frequency and damage of river flood events and minimises the risk of under- or over-investment. One of the innovative elements is that we explicitly distinguish between structural and non-structural flood protection measures. Our results show that the optimal investment decision today depends strongly on the cost structure of the adaptation measures and the discount rate, especially the ratio of fixed and weighted annual costs of the measures. A higher level of annual flood damage and later resolution of uncertainty in time increases the optimal investment. Furthermore, the optimal investment decision today is influenced by the possibility of the decision-maker to adjust his decision at a future moment in time.(auth)

Factors Influencing Adaptive Marine Governance in a Developing Country Context: a Case Study of Southern Kenya

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Louisa S. Evans

2011-06-01

Full Text Available Adaptive governance can be conceptualized as distinct phases of: 1 understanding environmental change; 2 using this understanding to inform decision making; and 3 acting on decisions in a manner that sustains resilience of desirable system states. Using this analytical framework, we explore governance in practice in two case studies in Kenya, that reflect the "messiness" of contemporary coastal governance in many developing country contexts. Findings suggest that adaptive marine governance is unlikely to be a smooth process of learning, knowledge sharing, and responding. There are institutional, sociocultural, and political factors, past and present, that influence each phase of both local and state decision making. New local institutions related to fisher associations and Beach Management Units influence learning and knowledge sharing in ways contrary to those expected of institutions that enable collaborative fisheries management. Similarly, state decision making is relatively uninformed by the diverse knowledge systems available in the coastal zone, despite the rhetoric of participation. Historical relations and modes of working continue to play a significant role in mediating the potential for adaptive governance in the future. The case studies are illustrative and point to a number of institutional and political issues that would need to be addressed in processes of governance reform towards more adaptive management in developing country contexts.

CAreDroid: Adaptation Framework for Android Context-Aware Applications.

Science.gov (United States)

Elmalaki, Salma; Wanner, Lucas; Srivastava, Mani

2015-09-01

Context-awareness is the ability of software systems to sense and adapt to their physical environment. Many contemporary mobile applications adapt to changing locations, connectivity states, available computational and energy resources, and proximity to other users and devices. Nevertheless, there is little systematic support for context-awareness in contemporary mobile operating systems. Because of this, application developers must build their own context-awareness adaptation engines, dealing directly with sensors and polluting application code with complex adaptation decisions. In this paper, we introduce CAreDroid, which is a framework that is designed to decouple the application logic from the complex adaptation decisions in Android context-aware applications. In this framework, developers are required- only-to focus on the application logic by providing a list of methods that are sensitive to certain contexts along with the permissible operating ranges under those contexts. At run time, CAreDroid monitors the context of the physical environment and intercepts calls to sensitive methods, activating only the blocks of code that best fit the current physical context. CAreDroid is implemented as part of the Android runtime system. By pushing context monitoring and adaptation into the runtime system, CAreDroid eases the development of context-aware applications and increases their efficiency. In particular, case study applications implemented using CAre-Droid are shown to have: (1) at least half lines of code fewer and (2) at least 10× more efficient in execution time compared to equivalent context-aware applications that use only standard Android APIs.

Soliciting scientific information and beliefs in predictive modeling and adaptive management

Science.gov (United States)

Glynn, P. D.; Voinov, A. A.; Shapiro, C. D.

2015-12-01

Post-normal science requires public engagement and adaptive corrections in addressing issues with high complexity and uncertainty. An adaptive management framework is presented for the improved management of natural resources and environments through a public participation process. The framework solicits the gathering and transformation and/or modeling of scientific information but also explicitly solicits the expression of participant beliefs. Beliefs and information are compared, explicitly discussed for alignments or misalignments, and ultimately melded back together as a "knowledge" basis for making decisions. An effort is made to recognize the human or participant biases that may affect the information base and the potential decisions. In a separate step, an attempt is made to recognize and predict the potential "winners" and "losers" (perceived or real) of any decision or action. These "winners" and "losers" include present human communities with different spatial, demographic or socio-economic characteristics as well as more dispersed or more diffusely characterized regional or global communities. "Winners" and "losers" may also include future human communities as well as communities of other biotic species. As in any adaptive management framework, assessment of predictions, iterative follow-through and adaptation of policies or actions is essential, and commonly very difficult or impossible to achieve. Recognizing beforehand the limits of adaptive management is essential. More generally, knowledge of the behavioral and economic sciences and of ethics and sociology will be key to a successful implementation of this adaptive management framework. Knowledge of biogeophysical processes will also be essential, but by definition of the issues being addressed, will always be incomplete and highly uncertain. The human dimensions of the issues addressed and the participatory processes used carry their own complexities and uncertainties. Some ideas and principles are

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro, E-mail: aenriquez@draba.org [Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED)/Draba Ingeniería y Consultoría Medioambiental, Cañada Nueva, 13, 28200 San Lorenzo de El Escorial (Spain); Díaz-Sierra, Rubén, E-mail: sierra@dfmf.uned.es [Departamento de Física Matemática y de Fluidos, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Martín-Aranda, Rosa M., E-mail: rmartin@ccia.uned.es [Departamento de Química Inorgánica y Química Técnica, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad Nacional de Educación a Distancia (UNED), Paseo Senda del Rey, 9, 28040 Madrid (Spain); Santos, Maria J., E-mail: M.J.FerreiraDosSantos@uu.nl [Department of Innovation, Environmental and Energy Sciences, Utrecht University, Heidelberglaan 2, 3572 TC Utrecht (Netherlands)

2017-05-15

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

Environmental impacts of climate change adaptation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Enríquez-de-Salamanca, Álvaro; Díaz-Sierra, Rubén; Martín-Aranda, Rosa M.; Santos, Maria J.

2017-01-01

Climate change adaptation reduces adverse effects of climate change but may also have undesirable environmental impacts. However, these impacts are yet poorly defined and analysed in the existing literature. To complement this knowledge-gap, we reviewed the literature to unveil the relationship between climate change adaptation and environmental impact assessment, and the degree to which environmental impacts are included in climate change adaptation theory and practice. Our literature review showed that technical, social and economic perspectives on climate change adaptation receive much more attention than the environmental perspective. The scarce interest on the environmental impacts of adaptation may be attributed to (1) an excessive sectoral approach, with dominance of non-environmental perspectives, (2) greater interest in mitigation and direct climate change impacts rather than in adaptation impacts, (3) a tendency to consider adaptation as inherently good, and (4) subjective/preconceived notions on which measures are good or bad, without a comprehensive assessment. Environmental Assessment (EA) has a long established history as an effective tool to include environment into decision-making, although it does not yet guarantee a proper assessment of adaptation, because it is still possible to postpone or even circumvent the processes of assessing the impacts of climate adaptation. Our results suggest that there is a need to address adaptation proactively by including it in EA, to update current policy frameworks, and to demand robust and reliable evaluation of alternatives. Only through the full EA of adaptation measures can we improve our understanding of the primary and secondary impacts of adaptation to global environmental change. - Highlights: • Climate change adaptation may have undesirable environmental impacts. • The impacts of adaptation are yet poorly analysed in the literature. • There is an excessive sectoral approach to adaptation, mainly

Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation in Ecosystems - Benefits, Barriers and Decision‐Making

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Møller, Lea Ravnkilde

) -Simulation of decision and reaction patterns in relation to the belief in future climate changes and trajectory of decisions when knowledge about future climate is gradually increased (Paper 4. Simulation of Optimal Decision‐Making under the Impacts of Climate Change) Overall, the PhD thesis concludes...... the uncertainty about the actual benefits of adaptation and mitigation of climate change and complicates the process of deciding how to act. Paper 3 provides a more in‐depth empirical analysis of actual decision‐making, considering rural Nepalese households dependent on agricultural production. Paper 3 finds...... to consider long‐term strategies. This underlines the importance of linking development with the fight against climate change in order to secure increased freedom of action for the world’s poorest, thereby increasing their ability to adapt and make optimal decisions for the future. Because climate change...

Usability of clinical decision support system as a facilitator for learning the assistive technology adaptation process.

Science.gov (United States)

Danial-Saad, Alexandra; Kuflik, Tsvi; Weiss, Patrice L Tamar; Schreuer, Naomi

2016-01-01

The aim of this study was to evaluate the usability of Ontology Supported Computerized Assistive Technology Recommender (OSCAR), a Clinical Decision Support System (CDSS) for the assistive technology adaptation process, its impact on learning the matching process, and to determine the relationship between its usability and learnability. Two groups of expert and novice clinicians (total, n = 26) took part in this study. Each group filled out system usability scale (SUS) to evaluate OSCAR's usability. The novice group completed a learning questionnaire to assess OSCAR's effect on their ability to learn the matching process. Both groups rated OSCAR's usability as "very good", (M [SUS] = 80.7, SD = 11.6, median = 83.7) by the novices, and (M [SUS] = 81.2, SD = 6.8, median = 81.2) by the experts. The Mann-Whitney results indicated that no significant differences were found between the expert and novice groups in terms of OSCAR's usability. A significant positive correlation existed between the usability of OSCAR and the ability to learn the adaptation process (rs = 0.46, p = 0.04). Usability is an important factor in the acceptance of a system. The successful application of user-centered design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically in developing other systems. Implications for Rehabilitation Creating a CDSS with a focus on its usability is an important factor for its acceptance by its users. Successful usability outcomes can impact the learning process of the subject matter in general, and the AT prescription process in particular. The successful application of User-Centered Design principles during the development of OSCAR may serve as a case study that models the significant elements to be considered, theoretically and practically. The study emphasizes the importance of close collaboration between the developers and

Climate change impact assessment and adaptation under uncertainty

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Wardekker, J.A.

2011-01-01

Expected impacts of climate change are associated with large uncertainties, particularly at the local level. Adaptation scientists, practitioners, and decision-makers will need to find ways to cope with these uncertainties. Several approaches have been suggested as ‘uncertainty-proof’ to some

Adapting to an Uncertain Climate: Lessons From Practice

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Capela Lourenco, T.; Rovisco, A.; Groot, A.M.E.; Nilsson, C.; Füssel, H.M.; Bree, van L.

2014-01-01

Climate change highlights the challenges for long-term policy making in the face of persistent and irreducible levels of uncertainties. It calls for the development of flexible approaches, innovative governance and other elements that contribute to effective and adaptive decision-making. Exploring

Spike-based decision learning of Nash equilibria in two-player games.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Johannes Friedrich

Full Text Available Humans and animals face decision tasks in an uncertain multi-agent environment where an agent's strategy may change in time due to the co-adaptation of others strategies. The neuronal substrate and the computational algorithms underlying such adaptive decision making, however, is largely unknown. We propose a population coding model of spiking neurons with a policy gradient procedure that successfully acquires optimal strategies for classical game-theoretical tasks. The suggested population reinforcement learning reproduces data from human behavioral experiments for the blackjack and the inspector game. It performs optimally according to a pure (deterministic and mixed (stochastic Nash equilibrium, respectively. In contrast, temporal-difference(TD-learning, covariance-learning, and basic reinforcement learning fail to perform optimally for the stochastic strategy. Spike-based population reinforcement learning, shown to follow the stochastic reward gradient, is therefore a viable candidate to explain automated decision learning of a Nash equilibrium in two-player games.

Beneficial Roles of Emotion in Decision Making: Functional Association of Brain and Body

OpenAIRE

Hideki Ohira

2011-01-01

Though traditional microeconomics has supposed that human decisions are based on logical and exact computation of cost-benefit balances or efficacies, studies in behavioral economics have shown that humans sometimes make seemingly irrational decisions driven by emotions. In our everyday situations, factors related to decisions are complex and which alternative will be the most beneficial is uncertain. In such cases, emotions have been thought adaptive because they can quickly reduce negative ...

Technologies for climate change adaptation. The water sector

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lopez, T De [ed.; UNEP Risoe Centre, Roskilde (Denmark); Elliott, M; Armstrong, A; Lobuglio, J; Bartram, J [The Water Institute at the Univ. of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, NC (United States)

2011-04-15

following chapter. Adaptation should not be understood as simply implementing the correct technology or practice. It should be part of a coherent, inter-sectoral strategy to ensure sustainable water resources and safe water supply. Therefore, tools for planning and decision-making for climate change adaptation in the water sector are also considered. Integrated Water Resource Management (IWRM) is proposed here as an overall decision- making framework for climate change adaptation in water resources. Likewise, Water Safety Plans (WSPs) are suggested to provide an approach for climate change adaptation in water quality and water supply. (LN)

Science-policy interface in transformative adaptive flood risk management - decision-making in Austria

Science.gov (United States)

Thaler, Thomas; Attems, Marie-Sophie; Rauter, Magdalena; Fuchs, Sven

2016-04-01

Facing the challenges of climate change, this paper aims to analyse and to evaluate the multiple use of flood alleviation schemes with respect to social transformation in communities exposed to flood hazards in Europe. The overall goals are: (1) the identification of indicators and parameters necessary for strategies to increase societal resilience, (2) an analysis of the institutional settings needed for societal transformation, and (3) perspectives of changing divisions of responsibilities between public and private actors necessary to arrive at more resilient societies. As such, governance is done by people interacting and defining risk mitigation measures as well as climate change adaptation are therefore simultaneously both outcomes of, and productive to, public and private responsibilities. Building off current knowledge this paper focussed on different dimensions of adaptation and mitigation strategies based on social, economic and institutional incentives and settings, centring on the linkages between these different dimensions and complementing existing flood risk governance arrangements. As such, the challenges of adaptation to flood risk will be tackled by converting scientific frameworks into practical assessment and policy advice. This paper used the Formative Scenario Analysis (FSA) as a method to construct well-defined sets of assumptions to gain insight into a system and its potential future development, based on qualitatively assessed impact factors and rated quantitative relations between these factors, such as impact and consistency analysis. The purpose of this approach was to develop scenarios, where participations develop their own strategies how to implement a transformative adaptation strategy in flood risk management. In particular, the interaction between researcher, the public and policy makers was analysed. Challenges and limitations were assessed, such as benefits on costs of adaptation measures, for the implementation of visions to

Adaptive Wireless Multimedia Services

OpenAIRE

Yi, Xiaokun

2006-01-01

Context-awareness is a hot topic in mobile computing currently. A lot of importance is being attached to facilitating the user of various mobile computing devices to provide services that are more “user-centric”. One aspect of context-awareness is to perceive variations in available resources, and to make decisions based on the feedback to enable applications to automatically adapt to the current environment. For Voice over IP (VoIP) software phones (softphones), variations in network perform...

Adapting to the Effects of Climate Change on Inuit Health

Science.gov (United States)

Ford, James D.; Willox, Ashlee Cunsolo; Chatwood, Susan; Furgal, Christopher; Harper, Sherilee; Mauro, Ian; Pearce, Tristan

2014-01-01

Climate change will have far-reaching implications for Inuit health. Focusing on adaptation offers a proactive approach for managing climate-related health risks—one that views Inuit populations as active agents in planning and responding at household, community, and regional levels. Adaptation can direct attention to the root causes of climate vulnerability and emphasize the importance of traditional knowledge regarding environmental change and adaptive strategies. An evidence base on adaptation options and processes for Inuit regions is currently lacking, however, thus constraining climate policy development. In this article, we tackled this deficit, drawing upon our understanding of the determinants of health vulnerability to climate change in Canada to propose key considerations for adaptation decision-making in an Inuit context. PMID:24754615

Decision Making in Concurrent Multitasking : Do People Adapt to Task Interference?

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Nijboer, Menno; Taatgen, Niels A.; Brands, Annelies; Borst, Jelmer P.; van Rijn, Hedderik

2013-01-01

While multitasking has received a great deal of attention from researchers, we still know little about how well people adapt their behavior to multitasking demands. In three experiments, participants were presented with a multicolumn subtraction task, which required working memory in half of the

Evidence accumulator or decision threshold - which cortical mechanism are we observing?

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Patrick eSimen

2012-06-01

Full Text Available Most psychological models of perceptual decision making are of the accumulation-to-threshold variety. The neural basis of accumulation in parietal and prefrontal cortex is therefore a topic of great interest in neuroscience. In contrast, threshold mechanisms have received less attention, and their neural basis has usually been sought in subcortical structures. Here I analyze a model of a decision threshold that can be implemented in the same cortical areas as evidence accumulators, and whose behavior bears on two open questions in decision neuroscience: 1 When ramping activity is observed in a brain region during decision making, does it reflect evidence accumulation? 2 Are changes in speed-accuracy tradeoffs and response biases more likely to be achieved by changes in thresholds, or in accumulation rates and starting points? The analysis suggests that task-modulated ramping activity, by itself, is weak evidence that a brain area mediates evidence accumulation as opposed to threshold readout; and that signs of modulated accumulation are as likely to indicate threshold adaptation as adaptation of starting points and accumulation rates. These conclusions imply that how thresholds are modeled can dramatically impact accumulator-based interpretations of this data.

Understanding the leaky engineering pipeline: Motivation and job adaptability of female engineers

Science.gov (United States)

Saraswathiamma, Manjusha Thekkedathu

This dissertation is a mixed-method study conducted using qualitative grounded theory and quantitative survey and correlation approaches. This study aims to explore the motivation and adaptability of females in the engineering profession and to develop a theoretical framework for both motivation and adaptability issues. As a result, this study endeavors to design solutions for the low enrollment and attenuation of female engineers in the engineering profession, often referred to as the "leaky female engineering pipeline." Profiles of 123 female engineers were studied for the qualitative approach, and 98 completed survey responses were analyzed for the quantitative approach. The qualitative, grounded-theory approach applied the constant comparison method; open, axial, and selective coding was used to classify the information in categories, sub-categories, and themes for both motivation and adaptability. The emergent themes for decisions motivating female enrollment include cognitive, emotional, and environmental factors. The themes identified for adaptability include the seven job adaptability factors: job satisfaction, risk- taking attitude, career/skill development, family, gender stereotyping, interpersonal skills, and personal benefit, as well as the self-perceived job adaptability factor. Illeris' Three-dimensional Learning Theory was modified as a model for decisions motivating female enrollment. This study suggests a firsthand conceptual parallelism of McClusky's Theory of Margin for the adaptability of female engineers in the profession. Also, this study attempted to design a survey instrument to measure job adaptability of female engineers. The study identifies two factors that are significantly related to job adaptability: interpersonal skills (related.

Understanding Perceptions of Climate Change, Priorities, and Decision-Making among Municipalities in Lima, Peru to Better Inform Adaptation and Mitigation Planning.

Science.gov (United States)

Siña, Mariella; Wood, Rachel C; Saldarriaga, Enrique; Lawler, Joshua; Zunt, Joseph; Garcia, Patricia; Cárcamo, César

2016-01-01

Climate change poses multiple risks to the population of Lima, the largest city and capital of Peru, located on the Pacific coast in a desert ecosystem. These risks include increased water scarcity, increased heat, and the introduction and emergence of vector-borne and other climate sensitive diseases. To respond to these threats, it is necessary for the government, at every level, to adopt more mitigation and adaptation strategies. Here, focus groups were conducted with representatives from five Lima municipalities to determine priorities, perception of climate change, and decision-making processes for implementing projects within each municipality. These factors can affect the ability and desire of a community to implement climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. The results show that climate change and other environmental factors are of relatively low priority, whereas public safety and water and sanitation services are of highest concern. Perhaps most importantly, climate change is not well understood among the municipalities. Participants had trouble distinguishing climate change from other environmental issues and did not fully understand its causes and effects. Greater understanding of what climate change is and why it is important is necessary for it to become a priority for the municipalities. Different aspects of increased climate change awareness seem to be connected to having experienced extreme weather events, whether related or not to climate change, and to higher socioeconomic status.

Local Orientation and the Evolution of Foraging: Changes in Decision Making Can Eliminate Evolutionary Trade-offs

Science.gov (United States)

van der Post, Daniel J.; Semmann, Dirk

2011-01-01

Information processing is a major aspect of the evolution of animal behavior. In foraging, responsiveness to local feeding opportunities can generate patterns of behavior which reflect or “recognize patterns” in the environment beyond the perception of individuals. Theory on the evolution of behavior generally neglects such opportunity-based adaptation. Using a spatial individual-based model we study the role of opportunity-based adaptation in the evolution of foraging, and how it depends on local decision making. We compare two model variants which differ in the individual decision making that can evolve (restricted and extended model), and study the evolution of simple foraging behavior in environments where food is distributed either uniformly or in patches. We find that opportunity-based adaptation and the pattern recognition it generates, plays an important role in foraging success, particularly in patchy environments where one of the main challenges is “staying in patches”. In the restricted model this is achieved by genetic adaptation of move and search behavior, in light of a trade-off on within- and between-patch behavior. In the extended model this trade-off does not arise because decision making capabilities allow for differentiated behavioral patterns. As a consequence, it becomes possible for properties of movement to be specialized for detection of patches with more food, a larger scale information processing not present in the restricted model. Our results show that changes in decision making abilities can alter what kinds of pattern recognition are possible, eliminate an evolutionary trade-off and change the adaptive landscape. PMID:21998571

Architectural Decision Management for Digital Transformation of Products and Services

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Alfred Zimmermann

2016-04-01

Full Text Available The digitization of our society changes the way we live, work, learn, communicate, and collaborate. The Internet of Things, Enterprise Social Networks, Adaptive Case Management, Mobility systems, Analytics for Big Data, and Cloud services environments are emerging to support smart connected products and services and the digital transformation. Biological metaphors of living and adaptable ecosystems provide the logical foundation for self-optimizing and resilient run-time environments for intelligent business services and service-oriented enterprise architectures. Our aim is to support flexibility and agile transformations for both business domains and related information technology. The present research paper investigates mechanisms for decision analytics in the context of multi-perspective explorations of enterprise services and their digital enterprise architectures by extending original architecture reference models with state of art elements for agile architectural engineering for the digitization and collaborative architectural decision support. The paper’s context focuses on digital transformations of business and IT and integrates fundamental mappings between adaptable digital enterprise architectures and service-oriented information systems. We are putting a spotlight on the example domain – Internet of Things.

Operator adaptation to changes in system reliability under adaptable automation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chavaillaz, Alain; Sauer, Juergen

2017-09-01

This experiment examined how operators coped with a change in system reliability between training and testing. Forty participants were trained for 3 h on a complex process control simulation modelling six levels of automation (LOA). In training, participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (50%). The impact of training experience on operator behaviour was examined during a 2.5 h testing session, in which participants either experienced a high- (100%) or low-reliability system (60%). The results showed that most operators did not often switch between LOA. Most chose an LOA that relieved them of most tasks but maintained their decision authority. Training experience did not have a strong impact on the outcome measures (e.g. performance, complacency). Low system reliability led to decreased performance and self-confidence. Furthermore, complacency was observed under high system reliability. Overall, the findings suggest benefits of adaptable automation because it accommodates different operator preferences for LOA. Practitioner Summary: The present research shows that operators can adapt to changes in system reliability between training and testing sessions. Furthermore, it provides evidence that each operator has his/her preferred automation level. Since this preference varies strongly between operators, adaptable automation seems to be suitable to accommodate these large differences.

The ASLOTS concept: An interactive, adaptive decision support concept for Final Approach Spacing of Aircraft (FASA). FAA-NASA Joint University Program

Science.gov (United States)

Simpson, Robert W.

1993-01-01

This presentation outlines a concept for an adaptive, interactive decision support system to assist controllers at a busy airport in achieving efficient use of multiple runways. The concept is being implemented as a computer code called FASA (Final Approach Spacing for Aircraft), and will be tested and demonstrated in ATCSIM, a high fidelity simulation of terminal area airspace and airport surface operations. Objectives are: (1) to provide automated cues to assist controllers in the sequencing and spacing of landing and takeoff aircraft; (2) to provide the controller with a limited ability to modify the sequence and spacings between aircraft, and to insert takeoffs and missed approach aircraft in the landing flows; (3) to increase spacing accuracy using more complex and precise separation criteria while reducing controller workload; and (4) achieve higher operational takeoff and landing rates on multiple runways in poor visibility.

Incorporating uncertainty regarding applicability of evidence from meta-analyses into clinical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kriston, Levente; Meister, Ramona

2014-03-01

Judging applicability (relevance) of meta-analytical findings to particular clinical decision-making situations remains challenging. We aimed to describe an evidence synthesis method that accounts for possible uncertainty regarding applicability of the evidence. We conceptualized uncertainty regarding applicability of the meta-analytical estimates to a decision-making situation as the result of uncertainty regarding applicability of the findings of the trials that were included in the meta-analysis. This trial-level applicability uncertainty can be directly assessed by the decision maker and allows for the definition of trial inclusion probabilities, which can be used to perform a probabilistic meta-analysis with unequal probability resampling of trials (adaptive meta-analysis). A case study with several fictitious decision-making scenarios was performed to demonstrate the method in practice. We present options to elicit trial inclusion probabilities and perform the calculations. The result of an adaptive meta-analysis is a frequency distribution of the estimated parameters from traditional meta-analysis that provides individually tailored information according to the specific needs and uncertainty of the decision maker. The proposed method offers a direct and formalized combination of research evidence with individual clinical expertise and may aid clinicians in specific decision-making situations. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Ecological mechanisms underpinning climate adaptation services.

Science.gov (United States)

Lavorel, Sandra; Colloff, Matthew J; McIntyre, Sue; Doherty, Michael D; Murphy, Helen T; Metcalfe, Daniel J; Dunlop, Michael; Williams, Richard J; Wise, Russell M; Williams, Kristen J

2015-01-01

Ecosystem services are typically valued for their immediate material or cultural benefits to human wellbeing, supported by regulating and supporting services. Under climate change, with more frequent stresses and novel shocks, 'climate adaptation services', are defined as the benefits to people from increased social ability to respond to change, provided by the capability of ecosystems to moderate and adapt to climate change and variability. They broaden the ecosystem services framework to assist decision makers in planning for an uncertain future with new choices and options. We present a generic framework for operationalising the adaptation services concept. Four steps guide the identification of intrinsic ecological mechanisms that facilitate the maintenance and emergence of ecosystem services during periods of change, and so materialise as adaptation services. We applied this framework for four contrasted Australian ecosystems. Comparative analyses enabled by the operational framework suggest that adaptation services that emerge during trajectories of ecological change are supported by common mechanisms: vegetation structural diversity, the role of keystone species or functional groups, response diversity and landscape connectivity, which underpin the persistence of function and the reassembly of ecological communities under severe climate change and variability. Such understanding should guide ecosystem management towards adaptation planning. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Climate Change Adaptation, Water, and Food Security in Pakistan ... those living in the Indus floodplains or on the edges of its deserts - received little attention. ... farmers' decision-making in water stressed regions, and the wider political and ...

Adaptation to Variance of Stimuli in Drosophila Larva Navigation

Science.gov (United States)

Wolk, Jason; Gepner, Ruben; Gershow, Marc

In order to respond to stimuli that vary over orders of magnitude while also being capable of sensing very small changes, neural systems must be capable of rapidly adapting to the variance of stimuli. We study this adaptation in Drosophila larvae responding to varying visual signals and optogenetically induced fictitious odors using an infrared illuminated arena and custom computer vision software. Larval navigational decisions (when to turn) are modeled as the output a linear-nonlinear Poisson process. The development of the nonlinear turn rate in response to changes in variance is tracked using an adaptive point process filter determining the rate of adaptation to different stimulus profiles. Supported by NIH Grant 1DP2EB022359 and NSF Grant PHY-1455015.

Which Infidelity Type Makes You More Jealous? Decision Strategies in a Forced-Choice between Sexual and Emotional Infidelity

OpenAIRE

Achim Schützwohl

2004-01-01

This study tested the prediction derived from the evolutionary psychological analysis of jealousy that men and women selecting the adaptively primary infidelity type (i.e., female sexual and male emotional infidelity, respectively) in a forced-choice response format need to engage in less elaborate decision strategies than men and women selecting the adaptively secondary infidelity type (i.e., male sexual and female emotional infidelity, respectively). Unknown to the participants, decision ti...

Which Infidelity Type Makes You More Jealous? Decision Strategies in a Forced-Choice between Sexual and Emotional Infidelity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Achim Schützwohl

2004-01-01

Full Text Available This study tested the prediction derived from the evolutionary psychological analysis of jealousy that men and women selecting the adaptively primary infidelity type (i.e., female sexual and male emotional infidelity, respectively in a forced-choice response format need to engage in less elaborate decision strategies than men and women selecting the adaptively secondary infidelity type (i.e., male sexual and female emotional infidelity, respectively. Unknown to the participants, decision times were registered as an index of the elaborateness of their decision strategies. The results clearly support the prediction. Implications and limitations of the present findings are discussed.

IDEF5 Ontology Description Capture Method: Concepts and Formal Foundations

Science.gov (United States)

1992-11-01

cutter comes to exist. The puzzle here goes back to Greek times iii the guise of the Ship of Theseus : if we bit by bit replace the planks of a ship...831 Barwise, J. and Perry, J., Situations and Attitudes, The MIT Press, Cambridge, 1983. [Burch 911 Burch, R., A Peircean Reduction Thesis : The

Adaptive clinical trial designs with pre-specified rules for modifying the sample size: understanding efficient types of adaptation.

Science.gov (United States)

Levin, Gregory P; Emerson, Sarah C; Emerson, Scott S

2013-04-15

Adaptive clinical trial design has been proposed as a promising new approach that may improve the drug discovery process. Proponents of adaptive sample size re-estimation promote its ability to avoid 'up-front' commitment of resources, better address the complicated decisions faced by data monitoring committees, and minimize accrual to studies having delayed ascertainment of outcomes. We investigate aspects of adaptation rules, such as timing of the adaptation analysis and magnitude of sample size adjustment, that lead to greater or lesser statistical efficiency. Owing in part to the recent Food and Drug Administration guidance that promotes the use of pre-specified sampling plans, we evaluate alternative approaches in the context of well-defined, pre-specified adaptation. We quantify the relative costs and benefits of fixed sample, group sequential, and pre-specified adaptive designs with respect to standard operating characteristics such as type I error, maximal sample size, power, and expected sample size under a range of alternatives. Our results build on others' prior research by demonstrating in realistic settings that simple and easily implemented pre-specified adaptive designs provide only very small efficiency gains over group sequential designs with the same number of analyses. In addition, we describe optimal rules for modifying the sample size, providing efficient adaptation boundaries on a variety of scales for the interim test statistic for adaptation analyses occurring at several different stages of the trial. We thus provide insight into what are good and bad choices of adaptive sampling plans when the added flexibility of adaptive designs is desired. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Effect of regulating anger and sadness on decision-making.

Science.gov (United States)

Szasz, Paul Lucian; Hofmann, Stefan G; Heilman, Renata M; Curtiss, Joshua

2016-11-01

The aim of the current study was to investigate the effects of reappraisal, acceptance, and rumination for regulating anger and sadness on decision-making. Participants (N = 165) were asked to recall two autobiographical events in which they felt intense anger and sadness, respectively. Participants were then instructed to reappraise, accept, ruminate, or not use any strategies to regulate their feelings of anger and sadness. Following this manipulation, risk aversion, and decision-making strategies were measured using a computer-based measure of risk-taking and a simulated real-life decision-making task. Participants who were instructed to reappraise their emotions showed the least anger and sadness, the most adaptive decision-making strategies, but the least risk aversion as compared to the participants in the other conditions. These findings suggest that emotion regulation strategies of negative affective states have an immediate effect on decision-making and risk-taking behaviors.

The Economics of Adaptation: Concepts, Methods and Examples

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Callaway, John MacIntosh; Naswa, Prakriti; Trærup, Sara Lærke Meltofte

and sectoral level strategies, plans and policies. Furthermore, we see it at the local level, where people are already adapting to the early impacts of climate change that affect livelihoods through, for example, changing rainfall patterns, drought, and frequency and intensity of extreme events. Analyses...... of the costs and benefits of climate change impacts and adaptation measures are important to inform future action. Despite the growth in the volume of research and studies on the economics of climate change adaptation over the past 10 years, there are still important gaps and weaknesses in the existing...... knowledge that limit effective and efficient decision-making and implementation of adaptation measures. Much of the literature to date has focussed on aggregate (national, regional and global) estimates of the economic costs of climate change impacts. There has been much less attention to the economics...

Guiding climate change adaptation within vulnerable natural resource management systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Bardsley, Douglas K; Sweeney, Susan M

2010-05-01

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

Guiding Climate Change Adaptation Within Vulnerable Natural Resource Management Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bardsley, Douglas K.; Sweeney, Susan M.

2010-05-01

Climate change has the potential to compromise the sustainability of natural resources in Mediterranean climatic systems, such that short-term reactive responses will increasingly be insufficient to ensure effective management. There is a simultaneous need for both the clear articulation of the vulnerabilities of specific management systems to climate risk, and the development of appropriate short- and long-term strategic planning responses that anticipate environmental change or allow for sustainable adaptive management in response to trends in resource condition. Governments are developing climate change adaptation policy frameworks, but without the recognition of the importance of responding strategically, regional stakeholders will struggle to manage future climate risk. In a partnership between the South Australian Government, the Adelaide and Mt Lofty Ranges Natural Resource Management Board and the regional community, a range of available research approaches to support regional climate change adaptation decision-making, were applied and critically examined, including: scenario modelling; applied and participatory Geographical Information Systems modelling; environmental risk analysis; and participatory action learning. As managers apply ideas for adaptation within their own biophysical and socio-cultural contexts, there would be both successes and failures, but a learning orientation to societal change will enable improvements over time. A base-line target for regional responses to climate change is the ownership of the issue by stakeholders, which leads to an acceptance that effective actions to adapt are now both possible and vitally important. Beyond such baseline knowledge, the research suggests that there is a range of tools from the social and physical sciences available to guide adaptation decision-making.

Reversible wavelet filter banks with side informationless spatially adaptive low-pass filters

Science.gov (United States)

Abhayaratne, Charith

2011-07-01

Wavelet transforms that have an adaptive low-pass filter are useful in applications that require the signal singularities, sharp transitions, and image edges to be left intact in the low-pass signal. In scalable image coding, the spatial resolution scalability is achieved by reconstructing the low-pass signal subband, which corresponds to the desired resolution level, and discarding other high-frequency wavelet subbands. In such applications, it is vital to have low-pass subbands that are not affected by smoothing artifacts associated with low-pass filtering. We present the mathematical framework for achieving 1-D wavelet transforms that have a spatially adaptive low-pass filter (SALP) using the prediction-first lifting scheme. The adaptivity decisions are computed using the wavelet coefficients, and no bookkeeping is required for the perfect reconstruction. Then, 2-D wavelet transforms that have a spatially adaptive low-pass filter are designed by extending the 1-D SALP framework. Because the 2-D polyphase decompositions are used in this case, the 2-D adaptivity decisions are made nonseparable as opposed to the separable 2-D realization using 1-D transforms. We present examples using the 2-D 5/3 wavelet transform and their lossless image coding and scalable decoding performances in terms of quality and resolution scalability. The proposed 2-D-SALP scheme results in better performance compared to the existing adaptive update lifting schemes.

Learning to bridge the gap between adaptive management and organisational culture

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Richard J. Stirzaker

2011-05-01

Full Text Available Adaptive management is the problem-solving approach of choice proposed for complex and multistakeholder environments, which are, at best, only partly predictable. We discuss the implications of this approach as applicable to scientists, who have to overcome certain entrained behaviour patterns in order to participate effectively in an adaptive management process. The challenge does not end there. Scientists and managers soon discover that an adaptive management approach does not only challenge conventional scientific and management behaviour but also clashes with contemporary organisational culture. We explore the shortcomings and requirements of organisations with regard to enabling adaptive management. Our overall conclusion relates to whether organisations are learning-centred or not. Do we continue to filter out unfamiliar information which does not fit our world view and avoid situations where we might fail, or do we use new and challenging situations to reframe the question and prepare ourselves for continued learning? Conservation implications: For an organisation to effectively embrace adaptive management, its mangers and scientists may first have to adapt their own beliefs regarding their respective roles. Instead of seeking certainty for guiding decisions, managers and scientists should acknowledge a degree of uncertainty inherent to complex social and ecological systems and seek to learn from the patterns emerging from every decision and action. The required organisational culture is one of ongoing and purposeful learning with all relevant stakeholders. Such a learning culture is often talked about but rarely practised in the organisational environment.

Adaptation: Needs, Financing and Institutions

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Klein, Richard J.T.; Kartha, Sivan; Persson, Aasa; Watkiss, Paul; Ackerman, Frank; Downing, Thomas E.; Kjellen, Bo; Schipper, Lisa (Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm (SE))

2008-07-01

the polluter-pays principle. The use of such mechanisms needs to be expanded. Developed countries should provide clarity on how official development assistance and various bilateral and multilateral funds for adaptation can complement one another. They should also address concerns that mainstreaming adaptation may not lead to new and additional funding. Institutions involved in adaptation need to be streamlined and reflect the reality of adaptation decision-making. Adaptation is not additional or incremental to baseline investments but involves investments in capacity and integration of adaptation measures into ongoing planning and development. Underlying drivers of vulnerability to climate change must be addressed as part of overall efforts to build safe and resilient communities. In addition, synergies must be created between adaptation to extreme weather events and implementing the Hyogo Framework for Action

A Word to the Wise: Advice for Scientists Engaged in Collaborative Adaptive Management

Science.gov (United States)

Hopkinson, Peter; Huber, Ann; Saah, David S.; Battles, John J.

2017-05-01

Collaborative adaptive management is a process for making decisions about the environment in the face of uncertainty and conflict. Scientists have a central role to play in these decisions. However, while scientists are well trained to reduce uncertainty by discovering new knowledge, most lack experience with the means to mitigate conflict in contested situations. To address this gap, we drew from our efforts coordinating a large collaborative adaptive management effort, the Sierra Nevada Adaptive Management Project, to offer advice to our fellow environmental scientists. Key challenges posed by collaborative adaptive management include the confusion caused by multiple institutional cultures, the need to provide information at management-relevant scales, frequent turnover in participants, fluctuations in enthusiasm among key constituencies, and diverse definitions of success among partners. Effective strategies included a dedication to consistency, a commitment to transparency, the willingness to communicate frequently via multiple forums, and the capacity for flexibility. Collaborative adaptive management represents a promising, new model for scientific engagement with the public. Learning the lessons of effective collaboration in environmental management is an essential task to achieve the shared goal of a sustainable future.

Adapting agriculture to climate change.

Science.gov (United States)

Howden, S Mark; Soussana, Jean-François; Tubiello, Francesco N; Chhetri, Netra; Dunlop, Michael; Meinke, Holger

2007-12-11

The strong trends in climate change already evident, the likelihood of further changes occurring, and the increasing scale of potential climate impacts give urgency to addressing agricultural adaptation more coherently. There are many potential adaptation options available for marginal change of existing agricultural systems, often variations of existing climate risk management. We show that implementation of these options is likely to have substantial benefits under moderate climate change for some cropping systems. However, there are limits to their effectiveness under more severe climate changes. Hence, more systemic changes in resource allocation need to be considered, such as targeted diversification of production systems and livelihoods. We argue that achieving increased adaptation action will necessitate integration of climate change-related issues with other risk factors, such as climate variability and market risk, and with other policy domains, such as sustainable development. Dealing with the many barriers to effective adaptation will require a comprehensive and dynamic policy approach covering a range of scales and issues, for example, from the understanding by farmers of change in risk profiles to the establishment of efficient markets that facilitate response strategies. Science, too, has to adapt. Multidisciplinary problems require multidisciplinary solutions, i.e., a focus on integrated rather than disciplinary science and a strengthening of the interface with decision makers. A crucial component of this approach is the implementation of adaptation assessment frameworks that are relevant, robust, and easily operated by all stakeholders, practitioners, policymakers, and scientists.

Building for a Changing Climate - Adaptation through planning and construction

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

2009-08-15

Adaptation through planning and construction can help to reduce the negative effects of climate change, such as flooding, landslides, landslips, and erosion. The National Board of Housing, Building and Planning (Boverket) has conducted an analysis of how the Planning and Building Act can assist in the work towards climate change adaptation. This brochure provides guidance and support to for example property owners, developers, officials and decision makers in municipalities and the state

Single-process versus multiple-strategy models of decision making: evidence from an information intrusion paradigm.

Science.gov (United States)

Söllner, Anke; Bröder, Arndt; Glöckner, Andreas; Betsch, Tilmann

2014-02-01

When decision makers are confronted with different problems and situations, do they use a uniform mechanism as assumed by single-process models (SPMs) or do they choose adaptively from a set of available decision strategies as multiple-strategy models (MSMs) imply? Both frameworks of decision making have gathered a lot of support, but only rarely have they been contrasted with each other. Employing an information intrusion paradigm for multi-attribute decisions from givens, SPM and MSM predictions on information search, decision outcomes, attention, and confidence judgments were derived and tested against each other in two experiments. The results consistently support the SPM view: Participants seemingly using a "take-the-best" (TTB) strategy do not ignore TTB-irrelevant information as MSMs would predict, but adapt the amount of information searched, choose alternative choice options, and show varying confidence judgments contingent on the quality of the "irrelevant" information. The uniformity of these findings underlines the adequacy of the novel information intrusion paradigm and comprehensively promotes the notion of a uniform decision making mechanism as assumed by single-process models. Copyright © 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Development of cognitive and affective control networks and decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kar, Bhoomika R; Vijay, Nivita; Mishra, Shreyasi

2013-01-01

Cognitive control and decision making are two important research areas in the realm of higher-order cognition. Control processes such as interference control and monitoring in cognitive and affective contexts have been found to influence the process of decision making. Development of control processes follows a gradual growth pattern associated with the prolonged maturation of underlying neural circuits including the lateral prefrontal cortex, anterior cingulate, and the medial prefrontal cortex. These circuits are also involved in the control of processes that influences decision making, particularly with respect to choice behavior. Developmental studies on affective control have shown distinct patterns of brain activity with adolescents showing greater activation of amygdala whereas adults showing greater activity in ventral prefrontal cortex. Conflict detection, monitoring, and adaptation involve anticipation and subsequent performance adjustments which are also critical to complex decision making. We discuss the gradual developmental patterns observed in two of our studies on conflict monitoring and adaptation in affective and nonaffective contexts. Findings of these studies indicate the need to look at the differences in the effects of the development of cognitive and affective control on decision making in children and particularly adolescents. Neuroimaging studies have shown the involvement of separable neural networks for cognitive (medial prefrontal cortex and anterior cingulate) and affective control (amygdala, ventral medial prefrontal cortex) shows that one system can affect the other also at the neural level. Hence, an understanding of the interaction and balance between the cognitive and affective brain networks may be crucial for self-regulation and decision making during the developmental period, particularly late childhood and adolescence. The chapter highlights the need for empirical investigation on the interaction between the different aspects

Psychiatric service staff perceptions of implementing a shared decision-making tool: a process evaluation study.

Science.gov (United States)

Schön, Ulla-Karin; Grim, Katarina; Wallin, Lars; Rosenberg, David; Svedberg, Petra

2018-12-01

Shared decision making, SDM, in psychiatric services, supports users to experience a greater sense of involvement in treatment, self-efficacy, autonomy and reduced coercion. Decision tools adapted to the needs of users have the potential to support SDM and restructure how users and staff work together to arrive at shared decisions. The aim of this study was to describe and analyse the implementation process of an SDM intervention for users of psychiatric services in Sweden. The implementation was studied through a process evaluation utilizing both quantitative and qualitative methods. In designing the process evaluation for the intervention, three evaluation components were emphasized: contextual factors, implementation issues and mechanisms of impact. The study addresses critical implementation issues related to decision-making authority, the perceived decision-making ability of users and the readiness of the service to increase influence and participation. It also emphasizes the importance of facilitation, as well as suggesting contextual adaptations that may be relevant for the local organizations. The results indicate that staff perceived the decision support tool as user-friendly and useful in supporting participation in decision-making, and suggest that such concrete supports to participation can be a factor in implementation if adequate attention is paid to organizational contexts and structures.

Collective decisions among bacterial viruses

Science.gov (United States)

Joh, Richard; Mileyko, Yuriy; Voit, Eberhard; Weitz, Joshua

2010-03-01

For many temperate bacteriophages, the decision of whether to kill hosts or enter a latent state depends on the multiplicity of infection. In this talk, I present a quantitative model of gene regulatory dynamics to describe how phages make collective decisions within host cells. Unlike most previous studies, the copy number of viral genomes is treated as a variable. In the absence of feedback loops, viral mRNA transcription is expected to be proportional to the viral copy number. However, when there are nonlinear feedback loops in viral gene regulation, our model shows that gene expression patterns are sensitive to changes in viral copy number and there can be a domain of copy number where the system becomes bistable. Hence, the viral copy number is a key control parameter determining host cell fates. This suggests that bacterial viruses can respond adaptively to changes in population dynamics, and can make alternative decisions as a bet-hedging strategy. Finally, I present a stochastic version of viral gene regulation and discuss speed-accuracy trade-offs in the context of cell fate determination by viruses.

Adaptation and inertia in dynamic environments

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Stieglitz, Nils; Knudsen, Thorbjørn; Becker, Markus C.

2016-01-01

responses to these dimensions. Our results show how frequent directional changes undermine the value of exploration and decisively shift performance advantages to inert organizations that restrict exploration. In contrast, increased environmental variance rewards exploration. Our results also show that......Research summary: We address conflicting claims and mixed empirical findings about adaptation as a response to increased environmental dynamism. We disentangle distinct dimensions of environmental dynamism—the direction, magnitude, and frequency of change—and identify how selection shapes adaptive...... business environments characterized by persistent trends and by large, infrequently occurring structural shocks reward strategic pursuit of temporary advantage. Thus, exploration and strategic flexibility are preferred strategies. In contrast, the challenge in frequently changing environments with fleeting...

Measuring and monitoring energy access: Decision-support tools for policymakers in Africa

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hailu, Yohannes G.

2012-01-01

A significant number of African States have adapted energy access targets. In evaluating progress towards these goals, measuring and monitoring energy access becomes relevant. This paper reviews energy access indicators and identifies their utility and challenges in their application. By focusing on Africa, a broader framework for energy access measurement and monitoring is discussed, along with implementation barriers and potential solutions. To demonstrate the utility of energy access decision-support tool in Africa, a scenario analysis in five regional energy pools is conducted using the Energy Spending Model tool. Institutionalizing monitoring and decision-support tools can provide valuable feedback to policymakers aiming to design and implement effective energy access programs serving a growing population in Africa. - Highlights: ► Most African countries have adapted energy access targets. ► To monitor and evaluate performance, monitoring and decision-support tools are required. ► Framework for tool development should consider data, cost, political and other factors. ► Implementation constraints include technical, data, resource and urban/rural issues. ► Electricity Spending Needs model is one decision support tool that ties access targets to investment needs. ► Monitoring tools provide crucial feedback on Africa's energy access progress.

Cultural adaptation of a pediatric functional assessment for rehabilitation outcomes research.

Science.gov (United States)

Arestad, Kristen E; MacPhee, David; Lim, Chun Y; Khetani, Mary A

2017-09-15

Significant racial and ethnic health care disparities experienced by Hispanic children with special health care needs (CSHCN) create barriers to enacting culturally competent rehabilitation services. One way to minimize the impact of disparities in rehabilitation is to equip practitioners with culturally relevant functional assessments to accurately determine service needs. Current approaches to culturally adapting assessments have three major limitations: use of inconsistent translation processes; current processes assess for some, but not all, elements of cultural equivalence; and limited evidence to guide decision making about whether to undertake cultural adaptation with and without language translation. The aims of this observational study are (a) to examine similarities and differences of culturally adapting a pediatric functional assessment with and without language translation, and (b) to examine the feasibility of cultural adaptation processes. The Young Children's Participation and Environment Measure (YC-PEM), a pediatric functional assessment, underwent cultural adaptation (i.e., language translation and cognitive testing) to establish Spanish and English pilot versions for use by caregivers of young CSHCN of Mexican descent. Following language translation to develop a Spanish YC-PEM pilot version, 7 caregivers (4 Spanish-speaking; 3 English-speaking) completed cognitive testing to inform decisions regarding content revisions to English and Spanish YC-PEM versions. Participant responses were content coded to established cultural equivalencies. Coded data were summed to draw comparisons on the number of revisions needed to achieve cultural equivalence between the two versions. Feasibility was assessed according to process data and data quality. Results suggest more revisions are required to achieve cultural equivalence for the translated (Spanish) version of the YC-PEM. However, issues around how the participation outcome is conceptualized were

How Accurate Appraisal of Behavioral Costs and Benefits Guides Adaptive Pain Coping

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wiebke Gandhi

2017-06-01

Full Text Available Coping with pain is a complex phenomenon encompassing a variety of behavioral responses and a large network of underlying neural circuits. Whether pain coping is adaptive or maladaptive depends on the type of pain (e.g., escapable or inescapable, personal factors (e.g., individual experiences with coping strategies in the past, and situational circumstances. Keeping these factors in mind, costs and benefits of different strategies have to be appraised and will guide behavioral decisions in the face of pain. In this review we present pain coping as an unconscious decision-making process during which accurately evaluated costs and benefits lead to adaptive pain coping behavior. We emphasize the importance of passive coping as an adaptive strategy when dealing with ongoing pain and thus go beyond the common view of passivity as a default state of helplessness. In combination with passive pain coping, we highlight the role of the reward system in reestablishing affective homeostasis and discuss existing evidence on a behavioral and neural level. We further present neural circuits involved in the decision-making process of pain coping when circumstances are ambiguous and, therefore, costs and benefits are difficult to anticipate. Finally, we address the wider implications of this topic by discussing its relevance for chronic pain patients.

Data needs and computational requirements for ST decision making. Internal deliverable ID6.2.1

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Clement, Rémy; Tournebise, Pascal; Perkin, Samuel

The objective of this deliverable is to present the requirements for adapting available tools/models and identifying data needs for probabilistic reliability analysis and optimal decision-making in the short-term decision making process. It will serve as a basis for the next tasks of GARPUR work ...

Diffusion coefficient adaptive correction in Lagrangian puff model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Tan Wenji; Wang Dezhong; Ma Yuanwei; Ji Zhilong

2014-01-01

Lagrangian puff model is widely used in the decision support system for nuclear emergency management. The diffusion coefficient is one of the key parameters impacting puff model. An adaptive method was proposed in this paper, which could correct the diffusion coefficient in Lagrangian puff model, and it aimed to improve the accuracy of calculating the nuclide concentration distribution. This method used detected concentration data, meteorological data and source release data to estimate the actual diffusion coefficient with least square method. The diffusion coefficient adaptive correction method was evaluated by Kincaid data in MVK, and was compared with traditional Pasquill-Gifford (P-G) diffusion scheme method. The results indicate that this diffusion coefficient adaptive correction method can improve the accuracy of Lagrangian puff model. (authors)

Intervention Mapping to Adapt Evidence-Based Interventions for Use in Practice: Increasing Mammography among African American Women

OpenAIRE

Highfield, Linda; Hartman, Marieke A.; Mullen, Patricia Dolan; Rodriguez, Serena A.; Fernandez, Maria E.; Bartholomew, L. Kay

2015-01-01

This paper describes and demonstrates the use of the systematic planning process, Intervention Mapping, to adapt an evidence-based public health intervention (EBI). We used a simplified version of Intervention Mapping (IM Adapt) to increase an intervention's fit with a new setting and population. IM Adapt guides researchers and practitioners in selecting an EBI, making decisions about whether and what to adapt, and executing the adaptation while guarding the EBI's essential elements (those re...

Age differences in dual information-processing modes: implications for cancer decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A; Hess, Thomas M; Västfjäll, Daniel

2008-12-15

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making, as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. The authors examined evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, reviewed the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making, and introduced how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves.

Protocol and Practice in the Adaptive Management of Waterfowl Harvests

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fred Johnson

1999-06-01

Full Text Available Waterfowl harvest management in North America, for all its success, historically has had several shortcomings, including a lack of well-defined objectives, a failure to account for uncertain management outcomes, and inefficient use of harvest regulations to understand the effects of management. To address these and other concerns, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service began implementation of adaptive harvest management in 1995. Harvest policies are now developed using a Markov decision process in which there is an explicit accounting for uncontrolled environmental variation, partial controllability of harvest, and structural uncertainty in waterfowl population dynamics. Current policies are passively adaptive, in the sense that any reduction in structural uncertainty is an unplanned by-product of the regulatory process. A generalization of the Markov decision process permits the calculation of optimal actively adaptive policies, but it is not yet clear how state-specific harvest actions differ between passive and active approaches. The Markov decision process also provides managers the ability to explore optimal levels of aggregation or "management scale" for regulating harvests in a system that exhibits high temporal, spatial, and organizational variability. Progress in institutionalizing adaptive harvest management has been remarkable, but some managers still perceive the process as a panacea, while failing to appreciate the challenges presented by this more explicit and methodical approach to harvest regulation. Technical hurdles include the need to develop better linkages between population processes and the dynamics of landscapes, and to model the dynamics of structural uncertainty in a more comprehensive fashion. From an institutional perspective, agreement on how to value and allocate harvests continues to be elusive, and there is some evidence that waterfowl managers have overestimated the importance of achievement-oriented factors in

Deep Rationality: The Evolutionary Economics of Decision Making.

Science.gov (United States)

Kenrick, Douglas T; Griskevicius, Vladas; Sundie, Jill M; Li, Norman P; Li, Yexin Jessica; Neuberg, Steven L

2009-10-01

What is a "rational" decision? Economists traditionally viewed rationality as maximizing expected satisfaction. This view has been useful in modeling basic microeconomic concepts, but falls short in accounting for many everyday human decisions. It leaves unanswered why some things reliably make people more satisfied than others, and why people frequently act to make others happy at a cost to themselves. Drawing on an evolutionary perspective, we propose that people make decisions according to a set of principles that may not appear to make sense at the superficial level, but that demonstrate rationality at a deeper evolutionary level. By this, we mean that people use adaptive domain-specific decision-rules that, on average, would have resulted in fitness benefits. Using this framework, we re-examine several economic principles. We suggest that traditional psychological functions governing risk aversion, discounting of future benefits, and budget allocations to multiple goods, for example, vary in predictable ways as a function of the underlying motive of the decision-maker and individual differences linked to evolved life-history strategies. A deep rationality framework not only helps explain why people make the decisions they do, but also inspires multiple directions for future research.

On complex adaptive systems and terrorism [rapid communication

Science.gov (United States)

Ahmed, E.; Elgazzar, A. S.; Hegazi, A. S.

2005-03-01

Complex adaptive systems (CAS) are ubiquitous in nature. They are basic in social sciences. An overview of CAS is given with emphasize on the occurrence of bad side effects to seemingly “wise” decisions. Hence application to terrorism is given. Some conclusions on how to deal with this phenomena are proposed.

Lithofacies identification using multiple adaptive resonance theory neural networks and group decision expert system

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, H.-C.; Kopaska-Merkel, D. C.; Chen, H.-C.; Rocky, Durrans S.

2000-01-01

Lithofacies identification supplies qualitative information about rocks. Lithofacies represent rock textures and are important components of hydrocarbon reservoir description. Traditional techniques of lithofacies identification from core data are costly and different geologists may provide different interpretations. In this paper, we present a low-cost intelligent system consisting of three adaptive resonance theory neural networks and a rule-based expert system to consistently and objectively identify lithofacies from well-log data. The input data are altered into different forms representing different perspectives of observation of lithofacies. Each form of input is processed by a different adaptive resonance theory neural network. Among these three adaptive resonance theory neural networks, one neural network processes the raw continuous data, another processes categorial data, and the third processes fuzzy-set data. Outputs from these three networks are then combined by the expert system using fuzzy inference to determine to which facies the input data should be assigned. Rules are prioritized to emphasize the importance of firing order. This new approach combines the learning ability of neural networks, the adaptability of fuzzy logic, and the expertise of geologists to infer facies of the rocks. This approach is applied to the Appleton Field, an oil field located in Escambia County, Alabama. The hybrid intelligence system predicts lithofacies identity from log data with 87.6% accuracy. This prediction is more accurate than those of single adaptive resonance theory networks, 79.3%, 68.0% and 66.0%, using raw, fuzzy-set, and categorical data, respectively, and by an error-backpropagation neural network, 57.3%. (C) 2000 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Decision making in matters of pollution in France

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Galle, Marion

1989-01-01

Decision making in matters of pollution, although taking place in a hierarchically determined institutional setting, can be interpreted as the result of a conflictual process between the different groups involved. 1. The statutory setting: coherence of laws and adaptability of norms; a hierarchical, pyramidal, formal structure; relative autonomy and flexibility of local decision making: possibility of developing local organizations for the control of pollution. 2. The conflictual process: Within the institutional setting, decision making is the result of interaction between: the state and the authorities, who make the rules and possess the formal power; industry, which has the economic power and is the arbiter of technical feasibility; the public, who are guardians of social values and judges of the acceptability of final decisions; the experts, who possess the scientific knowledge on which decisions are based. The relative weights of these different interests in decision making are linked with the existence of today's society of communication which increases the importance of communicators and especially the media. Conclusion: decision making in questions of environmental risk and pollution necessarily consists in taking into account all the interests involved in order to arrive at a solution acceptable to the public. The interests of society are not necessarily compatible with technical or scientific logic. (author)

Adaptation of thermal power plants: The (ir)relevance of climate (change) information

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bogmans, Christian W.J.; Dijkema, Gerard P.J.; Vliet, Michelle T.H. van

2017-01-01

When does climate change information lead to adaptation? We analyze thermal power plant adaptation by means of investing in water-saving (cooling) technology to prevent a decrease in plant efficiency and load reduction. A comprehensive power plant investment model, forced with downscaled climate and hydrological projections, is then numerically solved to analyze the adaptation decisions of a selection of real power plants. We find that operators that base their decisions on current climatic conditions are likely to make identical choices and perform just as well as operators that are fully ‘informed’ about climate change. Where electricity supply is mainly generated by thermal power plants, heat waves, droughts and low river flow may impact electricity supply for decades to come. - Highlights: • We analyze adaptation to climate change by thermal power plants. • A numerical investment model is applied to a coal plant and a nuclear power plant. • The numerical analysis is based on climate and hydrological projections. • Climate change information has a relatively small effect on a power plant's NPV. • Uncertainty and no-regret benefits lower the value of climate change information.

Understanding stakeholder preferences for flood adaptation alternatives with natural capital implications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jonathon R. Loos

2016-09-01

Full Text Available Inland flood risks are defined by a range of environmental and social factors, including land use and floodplain management. Shifting patterns of storm intensity and precipitation, attributed to climate change, are exacerbating flood risk in regions across North America. Strategies for adapting to growing flood risks and climate change must account for a community's specific vulnerabilities, and its local economic, environmental, and social conditions. Through a stakeholder-engaged methodology, we designed an interactive decision exercise to enable stakeholders to evaluate alternatives for addressing specific community flood vulnerabilities. We used a multicriteria framework to understand what drives stakeholder preferences for flood mitigation and adaptation alternatives, including ecosystem-based projects. Results indicated strong preferences for some ecosystem-based projects that utilize natural capital, generated a useful discussion on the role of individual values in driving decisions and a critique of local environmental and hazard planning procedure, and uncovered support for a river management alternative that had previously been considered socially infeasible. We conclude that a multicriteria decision framework may help ensure that the multiple benefit qualities of natural capital projects are considered by decision makers. Application of a utility function can demonstrate the role of individual decision-maker values in decision outcomes and help illustrate why one alternative may be a better choice than another. Although designing an efficient and accurate multicriteria exercise is quite challenging and often data intensive, we imagine that this method is applicable elsewhere. It may be especially suitable to group decisions that involve varying levels of expertise and competing values, as is often the case in planning for the ecological and human impacts of climate change.

Heuristic decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Gigerenzer, Gerd; Gaissmaier, Wolfgang

2011-01-01

As reflected in the amount of controversy, few areas in psychology have undergone such dramatic conceptual changes in the past decade as the emerging science of heuristics. Heuristics are efficient cognitive processes, conscious or unconscious, that ignore part of the information. Because using heuristics saves effort, the classical view has been that heuristic decisions imply greater errors than do "rational" decisions as defined by logic or statistical models. However, for many decisions, the assumptions of rational models are not met, and it is an empirical rather than an a priori issue how well cognitive heuristics function in an uncertain world. To answer both the descriptive question ("Which heuristics do people use in which situations?") and the prescriptive question ("When should people rely on a given heuristic rather than a complex strategy to make better judgments?"), formal models are indispensable. We review research that tests formal models of heuristic inference, including in business organizations, health care, and legal institutions. This research indicates that (a) individuals and organizations often rely on simple heuristics in an adaptive way, and (b) ignoring part of the information can lead to more accurate judgments than weighting and adding all information, for instance for low predictability and small samples. The big future challenge is to develop a systematic theory of the building blocks of heuristics as well as the core capacities and environmental structures these exploit.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles

Science.gov (United States)

Horne, Avril C.; Szemis, Joanna M.; Webb, J. Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J.; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Informing Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles.

Science.gov (United States)

Horne, Avril C; Szemis, Joanna M; Webb, J Angus; Kaur, Simranjit; Stewardson, Michael J; Bond, Nick; Nathan, Rory

2018-03-01

One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.

Knowledge exchange for climate adaptation planning in western North America

Science.gov (United States)

Garfin, Gregg; Orr, Barron

2015-04-01

In western North America, the combination of sustained drought, rapid ecosystem changes, and land use changes associated with urban population growth has motivated concern among ecosystem managers about the implications of future climate changes for the landscapes which they manage. Through literature review, surveys, and workshop discussions, we assess the process of moving from concern, to planning, to action, with an emphasis on questions, such as: What are the roles of boundary organizations in facilitating knowledge exchange? Which practices lead to effective interactions between scientists, decision-makers, and knowledge brokers? While there is no "one size fits all" science communication method, the co-production of science and policy by research scientists, science translators, and decision-makers, as co-equals, is a resource intensive, but effective practice for moving adaptation planning forward. Constructive approaches make use of alliances with early adopters and opinion leaders, and make strong communication links between predictions, impacts and solutions. Resource managers need information on the basics of regional climate variability and global climate change, region-specific projections of climate changes and impacts, frank discussion of uncertainties, and opportunities for candid exploration of these topics with peers and subject experts. Research scientists play critical roles in adaptation planning discussions, because they assist resource managers in clarifying the cascade of interactions leading to potential impacts and, importantly, because decision-makers want to hear the information straight from the scientists conducting the research, which bolsters credibility. We find that uncertainty, formerly a topic to avoided, forms the foundation for constructive progress in adaptation planning. Candid exploration of the array of uncertainties, including those due to modeling, institutional, policy and economic factors, with practitioners, science

Certification Considerations for Adaptive Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Bhattacharyya, Siddhartha; Cofer, Darren; Musliner, David J.; Mueller, Joseph; Engstrom, Eric

2015-01-01

Advanced capabilities planned for the next generation of aircraft, including those that will operate within the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen), will necessarily include complex new algorithms and non-traditional software elements. These aircraft will likely incorporate adaptive control algorithms that will provide enhanced safety, autonomy, and robustness during adverse conditions. Unmanned aircraft will operate alongside manned aircraft in the National Airspace (NAS), with intelligent software performing the high-level decision-making functions normally performed by human pilots. Even human-piloted aircraft will necessarily include more autonomy. However, there are serious barriers to the deployment of new capabilities, especially for those based upon software including adaptive control (AC) and artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms. Current civil aviation certification processes are based on the idea that the correct behavior of a system must be completely specified and verified prior to operation. This report by Rockwell Collins and SIFT documents our comprehensive study of the state of the art in intelligent and adaptive algorithms for the civil aviation domain, categorizing the approaches used and identifying gaps and challenges associated with certification of each approach.

Key Parameters Estimation and Adaptive Warning Strategy for Rear-End Collision of Vehicle

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiang Song

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The rear-end collision warning system requires reliable warning decision mechanism to adapt the actual driving situation. To overcome the shortcomings of existing warning methods, an adaptive strategy is proposed to address the practical aspects of the collision warning problem. The proposed strategy is based on the parameter-adaptive and variable-threshold approaches. First, several key parameter estimation algorithms are developed to provide more accurate and reliable information for subsequent warning method. They include a two-stage algorithm which contains a Kalman filter and a Luenberger observer for relative acceleration estimation, a Bayesian theory-based algorithm of estimating the road friction coefficient, and an artificial neural network for estimating the driver’s reaction time. Further, the variable-threshold warning method is designed to achieve the global warning decision. In the method, the safety distance is employed to judge the dangerous state. The calculation method of the safety distance in this paper can be adaptively adjusted according to the different driving conditions of the leading vehicle. Due to the real-time estimation of the key parameters and the adaptive calculation of the warning threshold, the strategy can adapt to various road and driving conditions. Finally, the proposed strategy is evaluated through simulation and field tests. The experimental results validate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed strategy.

A Probabilistic environmental decision support framework for managing risk and resources

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gallegos, D.P.; Webb, E.K.; Davis, P.A.; Conrad, S.H.

1996-01-01

The ability to make cost effective, timely decisions associated with waste management and environmental remediation problems has been the subject of considerable debate in recent years. On one hand, environmental decision makers do not have unlimited resources that they can apply to come to resolution on outstanding and uncertain technical issues. On the other hand, because of the possible impending consequences associated with these types of systems, avoiding making a decision is usually not an alternative either. Therefore, a structured, quantitative process is necessary that will facilitate technically defensible decision making in light of both uncertainty and resource constraints. An environmental decision support framework has been developed to provide a logical structure that defines a cost-effective, traceable, and defensible path to closure on decision regarding compliance and resource allocation. The methodology has been applied effectively to waste disposal problems and is being adapted and implemented in subsurface environmental remediation problems

Recent advances in applying decision science to managing national forests

Science.gov (United States)

Marcot, Bruce G.; Thompson, Matthew P.; Runge, Michael C.; Thompson, Frank R.; McNulty, Steven; Cleaves, David; Tomosy, Monica; Fisher, Larry A.; Andrew, Bliss

2012-01-01

Management of federal public forests to meet sustainability goals and multiple use regulations is an immense challenge. To succeed, we suggest use of formal decision science procedures and tools in the context of structured decision making (SDM). SDM entails four stages: problem structuring (framing the problem and defining objectives and evaluation criteria), problem analysis (defining alternatives, evaluating likely consequences, identifying key uncertainties, and analyzing tradeoffs), decision point (identifying the preferred alternative), and implementation and monitoring the preferred alternative with adaptive management feedbacks. We list a wide array of models, techniques, and tools available for each stage, and provide three case studies of their selected use in National Forest land management and project plans. Successful use of SDM involves participation by decision-makers, analysts, scientists, and stakeholders. We suggest specific areas for training and instituting SDM to foster transparency, rigor, clarity, and inclusiveness in formal decision processes regarding management of national forests.

Working memory capacity as controlled attention in tactical decision making.

Science.gov (United States)

Furley, Philip A; Memmert, Daniel

2012-06-01

The controlled attention theory of working memory capacity (WMC, Engle 2002) suggests that WMC represents a domain free limitation in the ability to control attention and is predictive of an individual's capability of staying focused, avoiding distraction and impulsive errors. In the present paper we test the predictive power of WMC in computer-based sport decision-making tasks. Experiment 1 demonstrated that high-WMC athletes were better able at focusing their attention on tactical decision making while blocking out irrelevant auditory distraction. Experiment 2 showed that high-WMC athletes were more successful at adapting their tactical decision making according to the situation instead of relying on prepotent inappropriate decisions. The present results provide additional but also unique support for the controlled attention theory of WMC by demonstrating that WMC is predictive of controlling attention in complex settings among different modalities and highlight the importance of working memory in tactical decision making.

Addressing uncertainty in adaptation planning for agriculture.

Science.gov (United States)

Vermeulen, Sonja J; Challinor, Andrew J; Thornton, Philip K; Campbell, Bruce M; Eriyagama, Nishadi; Vervoort, Joost M; Kinyangi, James; Jarvis, Andy; Läderach, Peter; Ramirez-Villegas, Julian; Nicklin, Kathryn J; Hawkins, Ed; Smith, Daniel R

2013-05-21

We present a framework for prioritizing adaptation approaches at a range of timeframes. The framework is illustrated by four case studies from developing countries, each with associated characterization of uncertainty. Two cases on near-term adaptation planning in Sri Lanka and on stakeholder scenario exercises in East Africa show how the relative utility of capacity vs. impact approaches to adaptation planning differ with level of uncertainty and associated lead time. An additional two cases demonstrate that it is possible to identify uncertainties that are relevant to decision making in specific timeframes and circumstances. The case on coffee in Latin America identifies altitudinal thresholds at which incremental vs. transformative adaptation pathways are robust options. The final case uses three crop-climate simulation studies to demonstrate how uncertainty can be characterized at different time horizons to discriminate where robust adaptation options are possible. We find that impact approaches, which use predictive models, are increasingly useful over longer lead times and at higher levels of greenhouse gas emissions. We also find that extreme events are important in determining predictability across a broad range of timescales. The results demonstrate the potential for robust knowledge and actions in the face of uncertainty.

Designing adaptive operating rules for a large multi-purpose reservoir

Science.gov (United States)

Geressu, Robel; Rougé, Charles; Harou, Julien

2017-04-01

Reservoirs whose live storage capacity is large compared with annual inflow have "memory", i.e., their storage levels contain information about past inflows and reservoir operations. Such "long-memory" reservoirs can be found in basins in dry regions such as the Nile River Basin in Africa, the Colorado River Basin in the US, or river basins in Western and Central Asia. There the effects of a dry year have the potential to impact reservoir levels and downstream releases for several subsequent years, prompting tensions in transboundary basins. Yet, current reservoir operation rules in those reservoirs do not reflect this by integrating past climate history and release decisions among the factors that influence operating decisions. This work proposes and demonstrates an adaptive reservoir operating rule that explicitly accounts for the recent history of release decisions, and not only current storage level and near-term inflow forecasts. This implies adding long-term (e.g., multiyear) objectives to the existing short-term (e.g., annual) ones. We apply these operating rules to the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, a large reservoir under construction on the Blue Nile River. Energy generation has to be balanced with the imperative of releasing enough water in low flow years (e.g., the minimum 1, 2 or 3 year cumulative flow) to avoid tensions with downstream countries, Sudan and Egypt. Maximizing the minimum multi-year releases could be of interest for the Nile problem to minimize the impact on performance of the large High Aswan Dam in Egypt. Objectives include maximizing the average and minimum annual energy generation and maximizing the minimum annual, two year and three year cumulative releases. The system model is tested using 30 stochastically generated streamflow series. One can then derive adaptive release rules depending on the value of one- and two-year total releases with respect to thresholds. Then, there are 3 sets of release rules for the reservoir depending

Adaptive Leadership in Times of Crisis

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-01

authority to make decisions was more valuable than teams of highly trained risk managers . adaptive leadership , therefore, does not only appoint one...Coast Guard petty officer looks for survivors in wake of Hurricane Katrina DOD (NyxoLyno Cangemi) Nothing throws leadership into starker relief than...handle domestic problems, for example, has been declining for the past decade.1 add the challenge of manag - ing digital media and its rapid information

Age Differences in Dual Information-Processing Modes: Implications for Cancer Decision Making

Science.gov (United States)

Peters, Ellen; Diefenbach, Michael A.; Hess, Thomas M.; Västfjäll, Daniel

2008-01-01

Age differences in affective/experiential and deliberative processes have important theoretical implications for cancer decision making as cancer is often a disease of older adulthood. We examine evidence for adult age differences in affective and deliberative information processes, review the sparse evidence about age differences in decision making and introduce how dual process theories and their findings might be applied to cancer decision making. Age-related declines in the efficiency of deliberative processes predict poorer-quality decisions as we age, particularly when decisions are unfamiliar and the information is numeric. However, age-related adaptive processes, including an increased focus on emotional goals and greater experience, can influence decision making and potentially offset age-related declines. A better understanding of the mechanisms that underlie cancer decision processes in our aging population should ultimately allow us to help older adults to better help themselves. PMID:19058148

Adaptive Home System Using Wireless Sensor Network And Multi Agent System

OpenAIRE

Jayarani Kamble; Prof.Nandini Dhole

2014-01-01

Smart Home is an emerging technology growing continuously which includes number of new technologies which helps to improve human’s quality of living. This paper proposes an adaptive home system for optimum utilization of power, through Artificial Intelligence and Wireless Sensor network. Artificial Intelligence is a technology for developing adaptive system that can perceive the enviornmrnt, learn from the environment and can make decision using Rule based system.Zigbee is a w...

75 FR 13120 - Energy Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Decision and Order Granting a Waiver to...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-18

... Conservation Program for Consumer Products: Decision and Order Granting a Waiver to Samsung Electronics America... (Case No. RF-011) that grants to Samsung Electronics America, Inc. (Samsung) a waiver from the DOE... humidity sensors and adaptive control anti-sweat heaters. Under today's decision and order, Samsung shall...

Adaptive Incentive Controls for Stackelberg Games with Unknown Cost Functionals.

Science.gov (United States)

1984-01-01

APR EZT:: F I AN 73S e OsL:-: UNCLASSI?:-- Q4~.’~- .A.., 6, *~*i i~~*~~*.- U ADAPTIVE INCENTIVE CONTROLS FOR STACKELBERG GAMES WITH UNKNOWN COST...AD-A161 885 ADAPTIVE INCENTIVE CONTROLS FOR STACKELBERG GAMES WITH i/1 UNKNOWN COST FUNCTIONALSCU) ILLINOIS UNIV AT URBANA DECISION AND CONTROL LAB T...ORGANIZATION 6b. OFFICE SYMBOL 7.. NAME OF MONITORING ORGANIZATION CoriaeLcenef~pda~ Joint Services Electronics Program Laboratory, Univ. of Illinois N/A

Market mood, adaptive beliefs and asset price dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dieci, Roberto; Foroni, Ilaria; Gardini, Laura; He Xuezhong

2006-01-01

Empirical evidence has suggested that, facing different trading strategies and complicated decision, the proportions of agents relying on particular strategies may stay at constant level or vary over time. This paper presents a simple 'dynamic market fraction' model of two groups of traders, fundamentalists and trend followers, under a market maker scenario. Market mood and evolutionary adaption are characterized by fixed and adaptive switching fraction among two groups, respectively. Using local stability and bifurcation analysis, as well as numerical simulation, the role played by the key parameters in the market behaviour is examined. Particular attention is paid to the impact of the market fraction, determined by the fixed proportions of confident fundamentalists and trend followers, and by the proportion of adaptively rational agents, who adopt different strategies over time depending on realized profits

Stakeholder participation in adaption to climate change - Lessons and experience from Germany

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Rotter, Maja; Hoffmann, Esther; Hirschfeld, Jesko; Schroeder, Andre; Mohaupt, Fanziska; Schaefer, Laura [Institut fuer Oekologische Wirtschaftsforschung (IOEW) gGmbH, Berlin (Germany)

2012-08-15

Openness and cooperation is one major principle of the German Adaptation Strategy; the development and implementation of adaptation policies is hence accompanied by broad and diversified stakeholder participation processes. Mainly three German ministries have initiated and supported stakeholder participation: the Federal Ministry for the Environment that has the lead in developing adaptation policies, the Federal Ministry for Education and Research through funding two research programs on adaptation, and the Federal Ministry of Transport, Building and Urban Development through funding regional model projects. A review of these stakeholder integration processes shows that different degrees of participation were realised (communication, consultation, co-production and co-decision) and that both science-based and policy-based approaches were pursued. While science-based approaches aim at improving research results, policy-based approaches target at influencing political decision-making. A broad variety of actors have been involved and almost all 15 sectors mentioned in the German Adaptation Strategy have been covered. While topics such as agriculture or water have been broadly addressed, economic issues have been touched only by a minority of events. Researchers and representatives from administration have participated in almost all events whereas policy-makers, companies and civil society organizations were less represented. The report concludes with recommendations for planning and conducting stakeholder participation processes and suggests suitable designs depending on the pursued objectives.

Structured decision making as a proactive approach to dealing with sea level rise in Florida

Science.gov (United States)

Martin, Julien; Fackler, Paul L.; Nichols, James D.; Lubow, Bruce C.; Eaton, Mitchell J.; Runge, Michael C.; Stith, Bradley M.; Langtimm, Catherine A.

2011-01-01

Sea level rise (SLR) projections along the coast of Florida present an enormous challenge for management and conservation over the long term. Decision makers need to recognize and adopt strategies to adapt to the potentially detrimental effects of SLR. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a rigorous framework for the management of natural resources. The aim of SDM is to identify decisions that are optimal with respect to management objectives and knowledge of the system. Most applications of SDM have assumed that the managed systems are governed by stationary processes. However, in the context of SLR it may be necessary to acknowledge that the processes underlying managed systems may be non-stationary, such that systems will be continuously changing. Therefore, SLR brings some unique considerations to the application of decision theory for natural resource management. In particular, SLR is expected to affect each of the components of SDM. For instance, management objectives may have to be reconsidered more frequently than under more stable conditions. The set of potential actions may also have to be adapted over time as conditions change. Models have to account for the non-stationarity of the modeled system processes. Each of the important sources of uncertainty in decision processes is expected to be exacerbated by SLR. We illustrate our ideas about adaptation of natural resource management to SLR by modeling a non-stationary system using a numerical example. We provide additional examples of an SDM approach for managing species that may be affected by SLR, with a focus on the endangered Florida manatee.

Cohabitants' perspective on housing adaptations: a piece of the puzzle.

Science.gov (United States)

Granbom, Marianne; Taei, Afsaneh; Ekstam, Lisa

2017-12-01

As part of the Swedish state-funded healthcare system, housing adaptations are used to promote safe and independent living for disabled people in ordinary housing through the elimination of physical environmental barriers in the home. The aim of this study was to describe the cohabitants' expectations and experiences of how a housing adaptation, intended for the partner, would impact their everyday life. In-depth interviews were conducted with cohabitants of nine people applying for a housing adaptation, initially at the time of the application and then again 3 months after the housing adaptation was installed. A longitudinal analysis was performed including analysis procedures from Grounded Theory. The findings revealed the expectations and experiences in four categories: partners' activities and independence; cohabitants' everyday activities and caregiving; couples' shared recreational/leisure activities; and housing decisions. A core category putting the intervention into perspective was called 'Housing adaptations - A piece of the puzzle'. From the cohabitants' perspective, new insights on housing adaptations emerged, which are important to consider when planning and carrying out successful housing adaptations. © 2017 Nordic College of Caring Science.

Autonomy and coordination: Controlling external influences on decision making

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Vecht, B. van der; Dignum, F.; Meyer, J.J.C.

2009-01-01

In order to achieve optimal results, an agent's way of decision making might need to change according to the circumstances. One of the aspects an agent can adapt is the way it processes external events. Therewith it controls to what extend it is being influenced by external factors. We argue that

Integrated Adaptive Scenarios for Ariculture: Synergies and Tradeoffs.

Science.gov (United States)

Malek, K.; Rajagopalan, K.; Adam, J. C.; Brady, M.; Stockle, C.; Liu, M.; Kruger, C. E.

2017-12-01

A wide variety of factors can drive adaptation of the agricultural production sector in response to climate change. Warming and increased growing season length can lead to adoption of newer plant varieties as well as increases in double cropping systems. Changes in expectations of drought frequency or economic factors could lead to adoption of new technology (such as irrigation technology or water trading systems) or crop choices with a view of reducing farm-level risk, and these choices can result in unintended system wide effects. These are all examples of producer adaptation decisions made with a long-term (multiple decades) view. In addition, producers respond to short-term (current year) shocks - such as drought events - through management strategies that include deficit irrigation, fallowing, nutrient management, and engaging in water trading. The effects of these short- and long-term decisions are not independent, and can drive or be driven by the other. For example, investment in new irrigation systems (long-term) can be driven by expectations of short-term crop productivity losses in drought years. Similarly, the capacity to manage for short-term shocks will depend on crop type and variety as well as adopted irrigation technologies. Our overarching objective is to understand the synergies and tradeoffs that exist when combining three potential long-term adaptation strategies and two short-term adaptation strategies, with a view of understanding the synergies and tradeoffs. We apply the integrated crop-hydrology modeling framework VIC-CropSyst, along with the water management module Yakima RiverWare to address these questions over our test area, the Yakima River basin. We consider adoption of a) more efficient irrigation technologies, slower growing crop varieties, and increased prevalence of double cropping systems as long-term adaptation strategies; and b) fallowing and deficit irrigation as short-term responses to droughts. We evaluate the individual and

Adaptive aspirations and performance heterogeneity : Attention allocation among multiple reference points

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Blettner, D.P.; He, Z.; Hu, S.; Bettis, R.

Organizations learn and adapt their aspiration levels based on reference points (prior aspiration, prior performance, and prior performance of reference groups). The relative attention that organizations allocate to these reference points impacts organizational search and strategic decisions.

Commercial surrogacy in India: The presumption of adaptive preference formation, the possibility of autonomy and the persistence of exploitation

OpenAIRE

Fellowes, Melanie G.

2017-01-01

India’s proposed 2016 Bill on the regulation of surrogacy is its latest attempt to respond to criticism regarding the lack of protection given to those entering into a commercial surrogacy arrangement. Adaptive preference theorists presume that a decision made in an oppressive environment, which is inconsistent with the woman’s well-being, is not autonomous and that she is therefore exploited. This article challenges this presumption, arguing that some decisions may be suspected as adaptive p...

Application of the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein quantum game scheme to decision problems with imperfect recall

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Frackiewicz, Piotr

2011-01-01

We investigate implementations of the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein (EWL) scheme of playing quantum games beyond strategic games. The scope of our research is decision problems, i.e. one-player extensive games. The research is based on the examination of their features when the decision problems are carried out via the EWL protocol. We prove that unitary operators can be adapted to play the role of strategies in decision problems with imperfect recall. Furthermore, we prove that unitary operators provide the decision maker with possibilities that are inaccessible for classical strategies.

Application of the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein quantum game scheme to decision problems with imperfect recall

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Frackiewicz, Piotr, E-mail: P.Frackiewicz@impan.gov.pl [Institute of Mathematics of the Polish Academy of Sciences, 00-956 Warsaw (Poland)

2011-08-12

We investigate implementations of the Eisert-Wilkens-Lewenstein (EWL) scheme of playing quantum games beyond strategic games. The scope of our research is decision problems, i.e. one-player extensive games. The research is based on the examination of their features when the decision problems are carried out via the EWL protocol. We prove that unitary operators can be adapted to play the role of strategies in decision problems with imperfect recall. Furthermore, we prove that unitary operators provide the decision maker with possibilities that are inaccessible for classical strategies.

ANFIS multi criteria decision making for overseas construction projects: a methodology

Science.gov (United States)

Utama, W. P.; Chan, A. P. C.; Zulherman; Zahoor, H.; Gao, R.; Jumas, D. Y.

2018-02-01

A critical part when a company targeting a foreign market is how to make a better decision in connection with potential project selection. Since different attributes of information are often incomplete, imprecise and ill-defined in overseas projects selection, the process of decision making by relying on the experiences and intuition is a risky attitude. This paper aims to demonstrate a decision support method in deciding overseas construction projects (OCPs). An Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS), the amalgamation of Neural Network and Fuzzy Theory, was used as decision support tool to decide to go or not go on OCPs. Root mean square error (RMSE) and coefficient of correlation (R) were employed to identify the ANFIS system indicating an optimum and efficient result. The optimum result was obtained from ANFIS network with two input membership functions, Gaussian membership function (gaussmf) and hybrid optimization method. The result shows that ANFIS may help the decision-making process for go/not go decision in OCPs.

Adaptability in IT Sourcing: The Impact of Switching Costs

Science.gov (United States)

Whitten, Dwayne

IT sourcing decisions are increasingly becoming more strategic than in the past. As this occurs, firms should maintain a strategy of adaptability in order to mitigate the risks inherently associated with sourcing. A major influence on the adaptability of a firm in the short- and long-term are the switching costs associated with moving an activity from one source to another. As switching costs increase, firms may be "locked in" to one source. Firms should therefore work to decrease the switching costs so that they are more able to move an activity from one source to another if the market changes or an outsourcing relationship sours. Three strategies are presented for lowering switching costs which will ultimately help increase adaptability.

Many-objective robust decision making for water allocation under climate change

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yan, Dan; Ludwig, Fulco; Huang, He Qing; Werners, Saskia E.

2017-01-01

Water allocation is facing profound challenges due to climate change uncertainties. To identify adaptive water allocation strategies that are robust to climate change uncertainties, a model framework combining many-objective robust decision making and biophysical modeling is developed for large

Systematic approaches to data analysis from the Critical Decision Method

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Martin Sedlár

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The aim of the present paper is to introduce how to analyse the qualitative data from the Critical Decision Method. At first, characterizing the method provides the meaningful introduction into the issue. This method used in naturalistic decision making research is one of the cognitive task analysis methods, it is based on the retrospective semistructured interview about critical incident from the work and it may be applied in various domains such as emergency services, military, transport, sport or industry. Researchers can make two types of methodological adaptation. Within-method adaptations modify the way of conducting the interviews and cross-method adaptations combine this method with other related methods. There are many decsriptions of conducting the interview, but the descriptions how the data should be analysed are rare. Some researchers use conventional approaches like content analysis, grounded theory or individual procedures with reference to the objectives of research project. Wong (2004 describes two approaches to data analysis proposed for this method of data collection, which are described and reviewed in the details. They enable systematic work with a large amount of data. The structured approach organizes the data according to an a priori analysis framework and it is suitable for clearly defined object of research. Each incident is studied separately. At first, the decision chart showing the main decision points and then the incident summary are made. These decision points are used to identify the relevant statements from the transcript, which are analysed in terms of the Recognition-Primed Decision Model. Finally, the results from all the analysed incidents are integrated. The limitation of the structured approach is it may not reveal some interesting concepts. The emergent themes approach helps to identify these concepts while maintaining a systematic framework for analysis and it is used for exploratory research design. It