Insurance: Accounting, Regulation, Actuarial Science

OpenAIRE

Alain Tosetti; Thomas Behar; Michel Fromenteau; Stéphane Ménart

2001-01-01

We shall be examining the following topics: (i) basic frameworks for accounting and for statutory insurance rules; and (ii) actuarial principles of insurance; for both life and nonlife (i.e. casualty and property) insurance.Section 1 introduces insurance terminology, regarding what an operation must include in order to be an insurance operation (the legal, statistical, financial or economic aspects), and introduces the accounting and regulation frameworks and the two actuarial models of insur...

42 CFR 457.431 - Actuarial report for benchmark-equivalent coverage.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

...— (1) By an individual who is a member of the American Academy of Actuaries; (2) Using generally accepted actuarial principles and methodologies of the American Academy of Actuaries; (3) Using a... coverage. (c) The actuary who prepares the opinion must select and specify the standardized set and...

20 CFR 901.20 - Standards of performance of actuarial services.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... services. 901.20 Section 901.20 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... Standards of Performance for Enrolled Actuaries § 901.20 Standards of performance of actuarial services. In the discharge of duties required by ERISA of enrolled actuaries with respect to any plan to which the...

20 CFR 901.32 - Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... actuaries. 901.32 Section 901.32 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... Suspension or Termination of Enrollment § 901.32 Receipt of information concerning enrolled actuaries. If an... Guaranty Corporation, or a member of the Joint Board has reason to believe that an enrolled actuary has...

Computational Intelligence. Mortality Models for the Actuary

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Willemse, W.J.

2001-01-01

This thesis applies computational intelligence to the field of actuarial (insurance) science. In particular, this thesis deals with life insurance where mortality modelling is important. Actuaries use ancient models (mortality laws) from the nineteenth century, for example Gompertz' and Makeham's

26 CFR 300.7 - Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. 300.7... AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.7 Enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the initial enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board for the Enrollment of...

42 CFR 440.340 - Actuarial report for benchmark-equivalent coverage.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... individual who is a member of the American Academy of Actuaries (AAA). (2) Using generally accepted actuarial... actuary preparing the opinion must select and specify the standardized set of factors and the standardized...

Actuarial considerations of medical malpractice evaluations in M&As.

Science.gov (United States)

Frese, Richard C

2014-11-01

To best project an actuarial estimate for medical malpractice exposure for a merger and acquisition, a organization's leaders should consider the following factors, among others: How to support an unbiased actuarial estimation. Experience of the actuary. The full picture of the organization's malpractice coverage. The potential for future loss development. Frequency and severity trends.

Actuarial Sciences Graduate Training Program (India-Waterloo ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

30 sept. 2009 ... The explosive growth of India's economy has led to a proliferation of insurance companies and a dire need for actuarial professionals. The University of Waterloo (Ontario) Canada has established a program to build actuarial talent for India's financial services including four elements: short professional ...

Actuarial statistics with generalized linear mixed models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonio, K.; Beirlant, J.

2007-01-01

Over the last decade the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) in actuarial statistics has received a lot of attention, starting from the actuarial illustrations in the standard text by McCullagh and Nelder [McCullagh, P., Nelder, J.A., 1989. Generalized linear models. In: Monographs on Statistics

Developing an Actuarial Track Utilizing Existing Resources

Science.gov (United States)

Rodgers, Kathy V.; Sarol, Yalçin

2014-01-01

Students earning a degree in mathematics often seek information on how to apply their mathematical knowledge. One option is to follow a curriculum with an actuarial emphasis designed to prepare students as an applied mathematician in the actuarial field. By developing only two new courses and utilizing existing courses for Validation by…

The Undergraduate Statistics Major--A Prelude to Actuarial Science Training.

Science.gov (United States)

Ratliff, Michael I.; Williams, Raymond E.

Recently there has been increased interest related to the Actuarial Science field. An actuary is a business professional who uses mathematical skills to define, analyze, and solve financial and social problems. This paper examines: (1) the interface between Statistical and Actuarial Science training; (2) statistical courses corresponding to…

77 FR 63337 - Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-16

... examinations in actuarial mathematics and methodology. The Joint Board administers such examinations in... JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES Renewal of Charter of Advisory Committee on Actuarial... the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Patrick McDonough...

MODELIZACIÓN ACTUARIAL DE LAS NUEVAS PRESTACIONES SOCIALES EN VENEZUELA

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Evaristo Diz Cruz

2014-05-01

Full Text Available En el presente paper se trata el tema de la valoración actuarial del nuevo esquema de prestaciones sociales contempladas en la nueva Ley Orgánica del Trabajo de Venezuela . Se desarrolla un modelo actuarial en detalle y se ilustra con un ejemplo numérico el impacto en temas de pasivo actuarial para una empresa típica. Besides the usual pension benefits the pension plan of a company may be forced by law in some countries to offer wage based Lump-sum payments for labor termination this is the Venezuela case. An actuarial model of funding severance payment liabilities is formulated and studied. All formulas involved are explained in detail. Finally a specific numerical example illustrates the dynamics of the liabilities determined by the Projected Unit Credit Method for a typical Venezuelan company within the new Labor Law context a Venezuelan accounting College is promoting Actuarial Valuations of this contingencies as mandatory so this model can be used for it.

THE ACCOUNTING POSTEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS BASED ON ACTUARIAL CALCULATIONS

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Anna CEBOTARI

2017-11-01

Full Text Available The accounting post-employment benefits, based on actuarial calculations, at present remains a subject studied in Moldova only theoretically. Applying actuarial calculations of accounting in fact denotes its character of evolving. Because national accounting standards have been adapted to international, which, in turn, require the valuation of assets and debts at fair value, there is a need to draw up exact calculations on which stands the theory of probability and mathematical statistics. One of the main objectives of accounting information is reflected in its financial situations and providing internal and external users of the entity. Hence, arises the need to reflect highly reliable information that can be provided by applying actuarial calculations.

26 CFR 300.8 - Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 26 Internal Revenue 18 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee...) PROCEDURE AND ADMINISTRATION USER FEES § 300.8 Renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuary fee. (a) Applicability. This section applies to the renewal of enrollment of enrolled actuaries with the Joint Board for...

Time-consistent actuarial valuations

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pelsser, A.A.J.; Salahnejhad Ghalehjooghi, A.

2016-01-01

Time-consistent valuations (i.e. pricing operators) can be created by backward iteration of one-period valuations. In this paper we investigate the continuous-time limits of well-known actuarial premium principles when such backward iteration procedures are applied. This method is applied to an

Strategic Curricular Decisions in Butler University's Actuarial Science Major

Science.gov (United States)

Wilson, Christopher James

2014-01-01

We describe specific curricular decisions employed at Butler University that have resulted in student achievement in the actuarial science major. The paper includes a discussion of how these decisions might be applied in the context of a new actuarial program.

5 CFR 839.1115 - What is an actuarial reduction?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... present value factor for your age at retirement. ...? An actuarial reduction allows you to receive benefits without having to pay an amount due in a lump... missing lump sum over your lifetime. The actuarial reduction becomes a permanent reduction in your benefit...

Education for actuarial quality must develop more than technical ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper is located in the field of actuarial professional education. It draws on current literature and empirical evidence to argue the need for developing generic 'normative' capabilities and values in the actuarial profession. The paper examines three themes of normative education for actuaries—the intended purpose of ...

Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dahlgren, Johan; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen

2016-01-01

The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence – an increase in death rate with advancing age – is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain...... the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32-year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment......, for individuals under two types of land-use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best-approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region...

75 FR 22754 - Federal Advisory Committee; Department of Defense Board of Actuaries; Charter Renewal

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-30

... Board of Actuaries; Charter Renewal AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Renewal of Federal... Department of Defense Board of Actuaries (hereafter referred to as the Board). FOR FURTHER INFORMATION... qualified professional actuaries who are members of the Society of Actuaries. Board members shall be...

26 CFR 301.6692-1 - Failure to file actuarial report.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... enrolled actuary (see § 301.6059-1(d)) is considered a material item of information. Further, for any report filed for a plan year ending after January 25, 1982, if the actuary seeks to materially qualify a...

75 FR 6359 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-09

... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Board of Actuaries... the DoD Board of Actuaries will meet on July 22 and 23, 2010. Subject to the availability of space...D Office of the Actuary, 4040 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 308, Arlington, VA 22203; phone 703-696-7413...

Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing.

Science.gov (United States)

Dahlgren, Johan Petter; Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen R; Øien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Sletvold, Nina

2016-11-16

The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence-an increase in death rate with advancing age-is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32 year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment, for individuals under two types of land use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region. At older ages, senescence was evident only when accounting for a positive effect of reproductive investment on mortality. Our results demonstrate actuarial senescence as well as a survival-reproduction trade-off in plants, and indicate that environmental context may influence senescence rates. This knowledge is crucial for understanding the evolution of demographic senescence and for models of plant population dynamics. © 2016 The Author(s).

Actuarial senescence in a long-lived orchid challenges our current understanding of ageing

Science.gov (United States)

Colchero, Fernando; Jones, Owen R.; Øien, Dag-Inge; Moen, Asbjørn; Sletvold, Nina

2016-01-01

The dominant evolutionary theory of actuarial senescence—an increase in death rate with advancing age—is based on the concept of a germ cell line that is separated from the somatic cells early in life. However, such a separation is not clear in all organisms. This has been suggested to explain the paucity of evidence for actuarial senescence in plants. We used a 32 year study of Dactylorhiza lapponica that replaces its organs each growing season, to test whether individuals of this tuberous orchid senesce. We performed a Bayesian survival trajectory analysis accounting for reproductive investment, for individuals under two types of land use, in two climatic regions. The mortality trajectory was best approximated by a Weibull model, showing clear actuarial senescence. Rates of senescence in this model declined with advancing age, but were slightly higher in mown plots and in the more benign climatic region. At older ages, senescence was evident only when accounting for a positive effect of reproductive investment on mortality. Our results demonstrate actuarial senescence as well as a survival–reproduction trade-off in plants, and indicate that environmental context may influence senescence rates. This knowledge is crucial for understanding the evolution of demographic senescence and for models of plant population dynamics. PMID:27852801

Development of an Actuarial Science Program at Salisbury University

Science.gov (United States)

Wainwright, Barbara A.

2014-01-01

This paper focuses on the development of an actuarial science track for the mathematics major at Salisbury University (SU). A timeline from the initial investigation into such a program through the proposal and approval processes is shared for those who might be interested in developing a new actuarial program. It is wise to start small and take…

The Role of an Actuarial Director in the Development of an Introductory Program

Science.gov (United States)

Staples, Susan G.

2014-01-01

We describe the roles and duties of a director in developing an introductory actuarial program. Degree plan design, specialized exam courses, internship classes, coordination of efforts with Economics and Finance Departments, opportunities for creating a minor in actuarial mathematics, actuarial clubs, career advice, and interaction with actuarial…

Analysis of Economic Burden of Seasonal Influenza: An Actuarial Based Conceptual Model

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S. S. N. Perera

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Analysing the economic burden of the seasonal influenza is highly essential due to the large number of outbreaks in recent years. Mathematical and actuarial models can be considered as management tools to understand the dynamical behavior, predict the risk, and compute it. This study is an attempt to develop conceptual model to investigate the economic burden due to seasonal influenza. The compartment SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible model is used to capture the dynamical behavior of influenza. Considering the current investment and future medical care expenditure as premium payment and benefit (claim, respectively, the insurance and actuarial based conceptual model is proposed to model the present economic burden due to the spread of influenza. Simulation is carried out to demonstrate the variation of the present economic burden with respect to model parameters. The sensitivity of the present economic burden is studied with respect to the risk of disease spread. The basic reproduction is used to identify the risk of disease spread. Impact of the seasonality is studied by introducing the seasonally varying infection rate. The proposed model provides theoretical background to investigate the economic burden of seasonal influenza.

An Overview of the Society of Actuaries and Its Education Programs

Science.gov (United States)

Klugman, Stuart; Long, Gena

2014-01-01

The Society of Actuaries (SOA) is the world's largest actuarial organization. This article describes the SOA with particular attention paid to its education and qualification processes and resources available for university and college programs.

2nd International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance

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Garrido, José; Jeanblanc, Monique

2017-01-01

Developed from the Second International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance, this volume showcases the latest progress in all theoretical and empirical aspects of actuarial science and quantitative finance. Held at the Universidad de Cartagena in Cartegena, Colombia in June 2016, the conference emphasized relations between industry and academia and provided a platform for practitioners to discuss problems arising from the financial and insurance industries in the Andean and Caribbean regions. Based on invited lectures as well as carefully selected papers, these proceedings address topics such as statistical techniques in finance and actuarial science, portfolio management, risk theory, derivative valuation and economics of insurance.

Editorial | Rusconi | South African Actuarial Journal

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Actuarial Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 16 (2016) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

Including an Exam P/1 Prep Course in a Growing Actuarial Science Program

Science.gov (United States)

Wakefield, Thomas P.

2014-01-01

The purpose of this article is to describe the actuarial science program at our university and the development of a course to enhance students' problem solving skills while preparing them for Exam P/1 of the Society of Actuaries (SOA) and the Casualty Actuary Society (CAS). The Exam P/1 prep course, formally titled Mathematical Foundations of…

Connecting clinical and actuarial prediction with rule-based methods.

Science.gov (United States)

Fokkema, Marjolein; Smits, Niels; Kelderman, Henk; Penninx, Brenda W J H

2015-06-01

Meta-analyses comparing the accuracy of clinical versus actuarial prediction have shown actuarial methods to outperform clinical methods, on average. However, actuarial methods are still not widely used in clinical practice, and there has been a call for the development of actuarial prediction methods for clinical practice. We argue that rule-based methods may be more useful than the linear main effect models usually employed in prediction studies, from a data and decision analytic as well as a practical perspective. In addition, decision rules derived with rule-based methods can be represented as fast and frugal trees, which, unlike main effects models, can be used in a sequential fashion, reducing the number of cues that have to be evaluated before making a prediction. We illustrate the usability of rule-based methods by applying RuleFit, an algorithm for deriving decision rules for classification and regression problems, to a dataset on prediction of the course of depressive and anxiety disorders from Penninx et al. (2011). The RuleFit algorithm provided a model consisting of 2 simple decision rules, requiring evaluation of only 2 to 4 cues. Predictive accuracy of the 2-rule model was very similar to that of a logistic regression model incorporating 20 predictor variables, originally applied to the dataset. In addition, the 2-rule model required, on average, evaluation of only 3 cues. Therefore, the RuleFit algorithm appears to be a promising method for creating decision tools that are less time consuming and easier to apply in psychological practice, and with accuracy comparable to traditional actuarial methods. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

Actuarial values calculated using the incomplete Gamma function

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giovanni Mingari Scarpello

2013-03-01

Full Text Available The complete expectation-of-life for a person and the actuarial present value of continuous life annuities are defined by integrals. In all of them at least one of the factors is a survival function value ratio. If de Moivre’s law of mortality is chosen, such integrals can easily be evaluated; but if the Makeham survival function is adopted, they are used to be calculated numerically. For the above actuarial figures, closed form integrations are hereafter provided by means of the incomplete Gamma function.

75 FR 47650 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-08-06

... Chief Actuary of the U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street, Chicago, Illinois, on the... sent by the Chief Actuary to the Committee before the meeting. The meeting will be open to the public... communications or notices to the RRB Actuarial Advisory Committee, c/o Chief Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement...

78 FR 9890 - DoD Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-12

... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary DoD Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory... Advisory Committee meeting of the DoD Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: July 18, 2013, from 1:00 p... Defense Human Resource Activity, DoD Office of the Actuary, 4800 Mark Center Drive, STE 06J25-01...

Throwing the baby out with the bath water: is it time for clinical judgment to supplement actuarial risk assessment?

Science.gov (United States)

Abbott, Brian R

2011-01-01

The assessment of the potential for sexual violence is one of three prongs that must be met to satisfy the requirements for civil confinement of dangerous sex offenders in the 21 U.S. jurisdictions that have these laws. In a recent issue of The Journal, Sreenivasan et al. argued that, because of a host of methodological problems, actuarial risk assessment methods in general and the Static-99 and its progeny in particular are insufficient for accurate assessment of risk for dangerous sex offenders. They propose using a combination of clinical judgment with actuarial science as a solution. This analysis and review of Sreenivasan et al. reveals and corrects flaws in the arguments they employed to support their position and shows how the combination of actuarial science with clinical judgment is more error prone than the actuarial approach only, and cannot be forensically defended in court. Recommendations on reporting Static-99R data in expert testimony are provided, taking into account the limitations of the instrument.

76 FR 17762 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-31

... receipt of a bachelor's or higher degree in either actuarial mathematics or another area which include at..., actuarial mathematics, and other areas determined by the Joint Board. These regulations provide that an... Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974...

77 FR 12577 - Department of Defense (DoD) Board of Actuaries; Federal Advisory Committee Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

... DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE Office of the Secretary Department of Defense (DoD) Board of Actuaries... that the following Federal advisory committee meeting of the DoD Board of Actuaries will take place... Actuaries meeting or make an oral presentation or submit a written statement for consideration at the...

76 FR 81362 - Regulations Governing the Performance of Actuarial Services Under the Employee Retirement Income...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-28

... JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES 20 CFR Part 901 [TD 9517] RIN 1545-BC82 Regulations...; Correction AGENCY: Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries. ACTION: Correction to final regulations... Federal Register on Thursday, March 31, 2011 (76 FR 17762) relating to the enrollment of actuaries. DATES...

Gender and Extended Actuarial Functions in Pension Insurance

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jana Špirková

2012-12-01

Full Text Available This paper brings analysis of the impact of a ban on the use of gender in insurance, with special stress on pension annuity, according to the requirements of the European Court of Justice. The paper brings a state-of-theart overview of known and extended actuarial functions which relate to modeling of a premium of endowment, term life insurance and pension annuity. Moreover, the amounts of the pension annuities payable thly per year in a model of the third pillar pension are modeled and analyzed for different interest rates using life tables for both genders and unisex.

An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard

2016-01-01

This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential...

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 10 (2010)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

A multiple Markov switching model for actuarial use in South Africa · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. AJ Maitland. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v10i1.61713 ...

"Cult of equity": actuaries and the transformation of pension fund investing, 1948–1960

OpenAIRE

Yally Avrahampour

2015-01-01

This article examines the mid-twentieth-century transformation of U.K. pension fund investment policy known as the “cult of equity.” It focuses on the influence exercised by the Association of Superannuation and Pension Funds over actuarial and corporate governance standards, through actuaries who were members of its council. This intervention led to increasingly permissive actuarial valuations that reduced contributions for sponsors of pension funds investing in equities. Increased demand fo...

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 13 (2013)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The gender profile of the South African actuarial profession · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. S Ramjee, FG Sibiya, KA Dreyer, 21-38. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v13i1.2 ...

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 4 (2004)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Conversion of Members' Rights in South African Retirement Funds from Defined Benefits to Defined Contributions and the Statutory Apportionment of the Resulting Actuarial Surplus · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. JP Andrew, 1-62 ...

Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance

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Legros, Florence; Perna, Cira; Sibillo, Marilena

2017-01-01

This volume gathers selected peer-reviewed papers presented at the international conference "MAF 2016 – Mathematical and Statistical Methods for Actuarial Sciences and Finance”, held in Paris (France) at the Université Paris-Dauphine from March 30 to April 1, 2016. The contributions highlight new ideas on mathematical and statistical methods in actuarial sciences and finance. The cooperation between mathematicians and statisticians working in insurance and finance is a very fruitful field, one that yields unique  theoretical models and practical applications, as well as new insights in the discussion of problems of national and international interest. This volume is addressed to academicians, researchers, Ph.D. students and professionals.

75 FR 6360 - Federal Advisory Committee; DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries

Science.gov (United States)

2010-02-09

... Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries AGENCY: Department of Defense (DoD). ACTION: Meeting notice... Actuaries will meet on August 18, 2010. Subject to the availability of space, the meeting is open to the...: Margot Kaplan at the DoD Office of the Actuary, 4040 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 308, Arlington, VA 22203...

78 FR 8596 - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-06

... Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial... workers and former workers of Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting group, Hartford, Connecticut (The Hartford-IDS...

78 FR 773 - Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-01-04

... Services Group, Inc., Commercial/Actuarial/ Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial... Assistance (TAA) applicable to workers and former workers of Hartford Financial Services Group, Inc., Commercial/ Actuarial/Information Delivery Services (IDS)/Corporate & Financial Reporting group, Hartford...

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 17 (2017)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Throughput in the UCT Actuarial Science programme: a microcosm of the profession's transformation challenge · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. Dave Strugnell, Shivani Ranchod, 43-72. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v17i1.3 ...

Editorial: Writing with impact | Rusconi | South African Actuarial ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

South African Actuarial Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 15 (2015) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

Planning lifelong professionalisation learning for actuaries | Lowther ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

This paper presents a model for what is termed Lifelong Professionalisation Learning for actuaries. The model is grounded on the proposition that professions are dynamic, offering the public varying quantities and qualities of professional aspects over time. The overall curriculum for the model is derived by ordering these ...

Recruiting and Advising Challenges in Actuarial Science

Science.gov (United States)

Case, Bettye Anne; Guan, Yuanying Michelle; Paris, Stephen

2014-01-01

Some challenges to increasing actuarial science program size through recruiting broadly among potential students are identified. Possible solutions depend on the structures and culture of the school. Up to three student cohorts may result from partition of potential students by the levels of academic progress before program entry: students…

77 FR 12577 - Department of Defense (DoD) Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Federal...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-01

... Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Federal Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: DoD. ACTION: Meeting... DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: Friday, August 3... Contact: Persons desiring to attend the DoD Medicare- Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries...

Mixed models for predictive modeling in actuarial science

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonio, K.; Zhang, Y.

2012-01-01

We start with a general discussion of mixed (also called multilevel) models and continue with illustrating specific (actuarial) applications of this type of models. Technical details on (linear, generalized, non-linear) mixed models follow: model assumptions, specifications, estimation techniques

Actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects: lessons foul and fair

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mathew, Paul E-mail: pamathew@lbl.gov; Kromer, J. Stephen; Sezgen, Osman; Meyers, Steven

2005-07-01

Recent market convulsions in the energy industry have generated a plethora of post-mortem analyses on a wide range of issues, including accounting rules, corporate governance, commodity markets, and energy policy. While most of these analyses have focused on business practices related to wholesale energy trading, there has been limited analysis of retail energy services, particularly energy efficiency projects. We suggest that there were several business concepts and strategies in the energy efficiency arena whose inherent value may have been masked by the larger failure of companies such as Enron. In this paper, we describe one such concept, namely, actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects, which leverages a portfolio-based approach to risk management. First, we discuss the business drivers, contrasting this approach with conventional industry practice. We then describe the implementation of this approach, including an actuarial database, pricing curves, and a pricing process compatible with commodity pricing. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects and barriers for the further development of transparent and quantifiable risk management products for energy efficiency, a prerequisite for developing energy efficiency as a tradeable commodity. We address these issues from an experiential standpoint, drawing mostly on our experience in developing and implementing such strategies at Enron.

Actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects: lessons foul and fair

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mathew, Paul; Kromer, J. Stephen; Sezgen, Osman; Meyers, Steven

2005-01-01

Recent market convulsions in the energy industry have generated a plethora of post-mortem analyses on a wide range of issues, including accounting rules, corporate governance, commodity markets, and energy policy. While most of these analyses have focused on business practices related to wholesale energy trading, there has been limited analysis of retail energy services, particularly energy efficiency projects. We suggest that there were several business concepts and strategies in the energy efficiency arena whose inherent value may have been masked by the larger failure of companies such as Enron. In this paper, we describe one such concept, namely, actuarial pricing of energy efficiency projects, which leverages a portfolio-based approach to risk management. First, we discuss the business drivers, contrasting this approach with conventional industry practice. We then describe the implementation of this approach, including an actuarial database, pricing curves, and a pricing process compatible with commodity pricing. We conclude with a discussion of the prospects and barriers for the further development of transparent and quantifiable risk management products for energy efficiency, a prerequisite for developing energy efficiency as a tradeable commodity. We address these issues from an experiential standpoint, drawing mostly on our experience in developing and implementing such strategies at Enron

78 FR 9890 - DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-02-12

... Actuaries; Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting AGENCY: DoD. ACTION: Meeting notice. SUMMARY: Under... Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries will take place. DATES: Friday, August 2, 2013, from 10:00 a.m. to... Activity, DoD Office of the Actuary, 4800 Mark Center Drive, STE 06J25-01, Alexandria, VA 22350-4000. Phone...

1st International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance

CERN Document Server

Garrido, José; Hernández-Hernández, Daniel; ICASQF

2015-01-01

Featuring contributions from industry and academia, this volume includes chapters covering a diverse range of theoretical and empirical aspects of actuarial science and quantitative finance, including portfolio management, derivative valuation, risk theory and the economics of insurance. Developed from the First International Congress on Actuarial Science and Quantitative Finance, held at the Universidad Nacional de Colombia in Bogotá in June 2014, this volume highlights different approaches to issues arising from industries in the Andean and Carribean regions. Contributions address topics such as Reverse mortgage schemes and urban dynamics, modeling spot price dynamics in the electricity market, and optimizing calibration and pricing with SABR models.

Market-consistent actuarial valuation

CERN Document Server

Wüthrich, Mario V

2016-01-01

This is the third edition of this well-received textbook, presenting powerful methods for measuring insurance liabilities and assets in a consistent way, with detailed mathematical frameworks that lead to market-consistent values for liabilities. Topics covered are stochastic discounting with deflators, valuation portfolio in life and non-life insurance, probability distortions, asset and liability management, financial risks, insurance technical risks, and solvency. Including updates on recent developments and regulatory changes under Solvency II, this new edition of Market-Consistent Actuarial Valuation also elaborates on different risk measures, providing a revised definition of solvency based on industry practice, and presents an adapted valuation framework which takes a dynamic view of non-life insurance reserving risk.

77 FR 24233 - Actuarial Advisory Committee With Respect to the Railroad Retirement Account; Notice of Public...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-23

... Actuary of the U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street, Chicago, Illinois, on the conduct of... Actuary, U.S. Railroad Retirement Board, 844 North Rush Street, Chicago, Illinois 60611-2092. Dated: April...

An analysis of a three-factor model proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries for forecasting and risk analysis

OpenAIRE

Jørgensen, Peter Løchte; Slipsager, Søren Kærgaard

2016-01-01

This paper provides the explicit solution to the three-factor diffusion model recently proposed by the Danish Society of Actuaries to the Danish industry of life insurance and pensions. The solution is obtained by use of the known general solution to multidimensional linear stochastic differential equation systems. With offset in the explicit solution, we establish the conditional distribution of the future state variables which allows for exact simulation. Using exact simulation, we illustra...

Factors Associated With Subjective Life Expectancy: Comparison With Actuarial Life Expectancy

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jaekyoung Bae

2017-07-01

Full Text Available Objectives Subjective life expectancy (SLE has been found to show a significant association with mortality. In this study, we aimed to investigate the major factors affecting SLE. We also examined whether any differences existed between SLE and actuarial life expectancy (LE in Korea. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 1000 individuals in Korea aged 20-59 was conducted. Participants were asked about SLE via a self-reported questionnaire. LE from the National Health Insurance database in Korea was used to evaluate differences between SLE and actuarial LE. Age-adjusted least-squares means, correlations, and regression analyses were used to test the relationship of SLE with four categories of predictors: demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors. Results Among the 1000 participants, women (mean SLE, 83.43 years; 95% confidence interval, 82.41 to 84.46 years; 48% of the total sample had an expected LE 1.59 years longer than that of men. The socioeconomic factors of household income and housing arrangements were related to SLE. Among the health behaviors, smoking status, alcohol status, and physical activity were associated with SLE. Among the psychosocial factors, stress, self-rated health, and social connectedness were related to SLE. SLE had a positive correlation with actuarial estimates (r=0.61, p<0.001. Gender, household income, history of smoking, and distress were related to the presence of a gap between SLE and actuarial LE. Conclusions Demographic factors, socioeconomic factors, health behaviors, and psychosocial factors showed significant associations with SLE, in the expected directions. Further studies are needed to determine the reasons for these results.

The lifecontingencies Package: Performing Financial and Actuarial Mathematics Calculations in R

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Giorgio Alfredo Spedicato

2013-11-01

Full Text Available It is possible to model life contingency insurances with the lifecontingencies R package, which is capable of performing financial and actuarial mathematics calculations. Its functions permit one to determine both the expected value and the stochastic distribution of insured benefits. Therefore, life insurance coverage can be priced and portfolios risk-based capital requirements can be assessed. This paper briefly summarizes the theory regarding life contingencies that is based on financial mathematics and demographic con- cepts. Then, with the aid of applied examples, it shows how the lifecontingencies package can be a useful tool for executing routine, deterministic, or stochastic calculations for life-contingencies actuarial mathematics.

Actuarial Science at One Four-Year Comprehensive University

Science.gov (United States)

Charlwood, Kevin E.

2014-01-01

Building an Actuarial Science program designated as advanced requires dedicated faculty, support from the administration, and a core group of strong students. Washburn University may serve as a model for those wishing to start or enhance such a program at their institution. We face three main ongoing challenges: first, the hiring and retention of…

A Comparison of Logistic Regression, Neural Networks, and Classification Trees Predicting Success of Actuarial Students

Science.gov (United States)

Schumacher, Phyllis; Olinsky, Alan; Quinn, John; Smith, Richard

2010-01-01

The authors extended previous research by 2 of the authors who conducted a study designed to predict the successful completion of students enrolled in an actuarial program. They used logistic regression to determine the probability of an actuarial student graduating in the major or dropping out. They compared the results of this study with those…

EL SISTEMA DE PENSIONES DE MARRUECOS: SOSTENIBILIDAD ACTUARIAL DE LA CAJA NACIONAL DE SEGURIDAD SOCIAL

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Enrique Devesa Carpio

2015-09-01

Full Text Available El trabajo analiza, desde el punto de vista actuarial, la sostenibilidad de la Caja Nacional de Seguridad Social de Marruecos, que es un régimen contributivo que incorpora tanto a trabajadores por cuenta ajena como por cuenta propia. Para ello se llevan a cabo casi 2000 simulaciones, a partir de individuos tipo definidos en función de las peculiaridades del sistema. Además de estudiar la situación actual se analiza el efecto de la reforma que se pretende aplicar al sistema. La conclusión principal es la insostenibilidad actuarial del mismo. The paper analyzes, from the actuarial point of view, the sustainability of the National Social Security Fund in Morocco, which is a contributory scheme that incorporates both employees and self-employed. To do this, almost 2000 simulations are conducted, from different type of individuals defined according to the peculiarities of the system. In addition to studying the current situation, the effect of the reform intended to apply to the system will be analyzed. The main conclusion is the actuarial unsustainability of the system.

Editorial: On Changing Jackets | Thomson | South African Actuarial ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

No Abstract South African Actuarial Journal Vol. 8 2008: pp. 93-95. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. Article Metrics. Metrics Loading ... Metrics powered by PLOS ALM · http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v8i1.24514 · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE ...

Development of a clinical prediction model to calculate patient life expectancy: the measure of actuarial life expectancy (MALE).

Science.gov (United States)

Clarke, M G; Kennedy, K P; MacDonagh, R P

2009-01-01

To develop a clinical prediction model enabling the calculation of an individual patient's life expectancy (LE) and survival probability based on age, sex, and comorbidity for use in the joint decision-making process regarding medical treatment. A computer software program was developed with a team of 3 clinicians, 2 professional actuaries, and 2 professional computer programmers. This incorporated statistical spreadsheet and database access design methods. Data sources included life insurance industry actuarial rating factor tables (public and private domain), Government Actuary Department UK life tables, professional actuarial sources, and evidence-based medical literature. The main outcome measures were numerical and graphical display of comorbidity-adjusted LE; 5-, 10-, and 15-year survival probability; in addition to generic UK population LE. Nineteen medical conditions, which impacted significantly on LE in actuarial terms and were commonly encountered in clinical practice, were incorporated in the final model. Numerical and graphical representations of statistical predictions of LE and survival probability were successfully generated for patients with either no comorbidity or a combination of the 19 medical conditions included. Validation and testing, including actuarial peer review, confirmed consistency with the data sources utilized. The evidence-based actuarial data utilized in this computer program design represent a valuable resource for use in the clinical decision-making process, where an accurate objective assessment of patient LE can so often make the difference between patients being offered or denied medical and surgical treatment. Ongoing development to incorporate additional comorbidities and enable Web-based access will enhance its use further.

Conversations with your actuary: getting to the right number.

Science.gov (United States)

Frese, Richard C

2013-05-01

A healthcare finance leader can guarantee recognition of his or her organization's insurance program and better manage the program's liability by discussing changes in the following areas with an actuary: Claims management. Exposure. Coverage or retention Financial reporting of losses. Management goals. Other insurance and operational matters.

actuar: An R Package for Actuarial Science

OpenAIRE

Dutang, Christophe; Goulet, Vincent; Pigeon, Mathieu

2008-01-01

actuar is a package providing additional Actuarial Science functionality to the R statistical system. The project was launched in 2005 and the package is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network since February 2006. The current version of the package contains functions for use in the fields of loss distributions modeling, risk theory (including ruin theory), simulation of compound hierarchical models and credibility theory. This paper presents in detail but with few technical terms t...

Three essays on actuarial social security theory

OpenAIRE

Ventura Marco, Manuel

2015-01-01

Esta tesis se centra en dos de los instrumentos básicos para mejorar los sistemas de pensiones de reparto (PAYG pension systems): el balance actuarial (ABS) y las cuentas nocionales de aportación definida (NDC). Las investigaciones sobre dichos instrumentos consideran, en general, sólo la contingencia de jubilación. La tesis explora las posibilidades de generalizarlos añadiendo dos nuevas contingencias, la invalidez permanente (disability) y la dependencia (LTC). Los objetivos principales que...

Predicting Success for Actuarial Students in Undergraduate Mathematics Courses

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Richard Manning; Schumacher, Phyllis A.

2005-01-01

A study of undergraduate actuarial graduates found that math SAT scores, verbal SAT scores, percentile rank in high school graduating class, and percentage score on a college mathematics placement exam had some relevance to forecasting the students' grade point averages in their major. For both males and females, percentile rank in high school…

Editorial: Is actuarial science really a science? | Editor | South ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

No Abstract Available South African Actuarial Journal Vol.4 2004: 97-103. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT · AJOL African Journals Online. HOW TO USE AJOL... for Researchers · for Librarians · for Authors · FAQ's · More about AJOL · AJOL's Partners ...

Actuarial assessment of violence risk in hospital-based partner assault clinics.

Science.gov (United States)

Hilton, N Zoe; Harris, Grant T; Holder, Norah

2008-12-01

Hospital-based partner assault clinics are a relatively recent addition to the community response to partner violence. In this study, 66% of 111 women attending hospital clinics for partner assault were physically injured and 43% reported death threats. Few concurrently used other services (shelters or police) and most relied on female friends and relatives for help. Many participants who currently lived with the perpetrator were contemplating leaving but only a third had made plans to do so. Participants faced an unusually high risk of future assault, according to both victim interview using the ODARA actuarial risk assessment and their own perceptions. Findings imply an important role for partner assault clinics and the feasibility of the victim service sector's using the same actuarial risk assessments as the criminal justice system.

Competence in Mathematics and Academic Achievement: An Analysis of Enrollees in the Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science Program

Science.gov (United States)

Wamala, Robert; Maswere, Dyson W.; Mwanga, Yeko

2013-01-01

This study investigates the role of prior grounding attained in mathematics in predicting the academic achievement of enrollees in Bachelor of Science in Actuarial Science (BSAS). The investigation is based on administrative records of 240 BSAS enrollees at Makerere University, School of Statistics and Planning in the 2007-2009 cohorts. Students'…

actuar: An R Package for Actuarial Science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christophe Dutang

2008-02-01

Full Text Available actuar is a package providing additional Actuarial Science functionality to the R statistical system. The project was launched in 2005 and the package is available on the Comprehensive R Archive Network since February 2006. The current version of the package contains functions for use in the fields of loss distributions modeling, risk theory (including ruin theory, simulation of compound hierarchical models and credibility theory. This paper presents in detail but with few technical terms the most recent version of the package.

Starting an Actuarial Science Major at a Liberal Arts College

Science.gov (United States)

Mills, Mark A.

2014-01-01

The article provides details of the process of starting an actuarial science major at a small, liberal arts college. Some critique of the major is included, as well as some challenges that may be faced by others wanting to start such a major at their institution.

Long‐Term Post‐CABG Survival: Performance of Clinical Risk Models Versus Actuarial Predictions

Science.gov (United States)

Carr, Brendan M.; Romeiser, Jamie; Ruan, Joyce; Gupta, Sandeep; Seifert, Frank C.; Zhu, Wei

2015-01-01

Abstract Background/aim Clinical risk models are commonly used to predict short‐term coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) mortality but are less commonly used to predict long‐term mortality. The added value of long‐term mortality clinical risk models over traditional actuarial models has not been evaluated. To address this, the predictive performance of a long‐term clinical risk model was compared with that of an actuarial model to identify the clinical variable(s) most responsible for any differences observed. Methods Long‐term mortality for 1028 CABG patients was estimated using the Hannan New York State clinical risk model and an actuarial model (based on age, gender, and race/ethnicity). Vital status was assessed using the Social Security Death Index. Observed/expected (O/E) ratios were calculated, and the models' predictive performances were compared using a nested c‐index approach. Linear regression analyses identified the subgroup of risk factors driving the differences observed. Results Mortality rates were 3%, 9%, and 17% at one‐, three‐, and five years, respectively (median follow‐up: five years). The clinical risk model provided more accurate predictions. Greater divergence between model estimates occurred with increasing long‐term mortality risk, with baseline renal dysfunction identified as a particularly important driver of these differences. Conclusions Long‐term mortality clinical risk models provide enhanced predictive power compared to actuarial models. Using the Hannan risk model, a patient's long‐term mortality risk can be accurately assessed and subgroups of higher‐risk patients can be identified for enhanced follow‐up care. More research appears warranted to refine long‐term CABG clinical risk models. doi: 10.1111/jocs.12665 (J Card Surg 2016;31:23–30) PMID:26543019

Clinical versus actuarial geographic profiling strategies : A Review of the Research

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Bennell, Craig; Taylor, Paul; Snook, Brent

2007-01-01

Geographic profiling predictions can be produced using a variety of strategies. Some predictions are made using an equation or mechanical aid (actuarial strategy) while others are made by human judges drawing on experience or heuristic principles (clinical strategy). We review research that bears

The gender profile of the South African actuarial profession | Ramjee ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The aim of this paper is to contextualise the gender status of the South African actuarial profession, both historically and relative to elsewhere in the world, as well as to establish the current level of representation of women in the profession. The authors have investigated the extent to which women are represented in ...

The longevity risk of the Dutch Actuarial Association’s projection model

NARCIS (Netherlands)

F. Peters (Frederick); W.J. Nusselder (Wilma); J.P. Mackenbach (Johan)

2012-01-01

markdownabstractAccurate assessment of the risk that arises from further increases in life expectancy is crucial for the financial sector, in particular for pension funds and life insurance companies. The Dutch Actuarial Association presented a revised projection model in 2010, while in the same

Stochastic Interest Model Based on Compound Poisson Process and Applications in Actuarial Science

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shilong Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Considering stochastic behavior of interest rates in financial market, we construct a new class of interest models based on compound Poisson process. Different from the references, this paper describes the randomness of interest rates by modeling the force of interest with Poisson random jumps directly. To solve the problem in calculation of accumulated interest force function, one important integral technique is employed. And a conception called the critical value is introduced to investigate the validity condition of this new model. We also discuss actuarial present values of several life annuities under this new interest model. Simulations are done to illustrate the theoretical results and the effect of parameters in interest model on actuarial present values is also analyzed.

20 CFR 200.9 - Selection of members of Actuarial Advisory Committee.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 1 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Selection of members of Actuarial Advisory Committee. 200.9 Section 200.9 Employees' Benefits RAILROAD RETIREMENT BOARD GENERAL ADMINISTRATION GENERAL... railroad subject to the Interstate Commerce Act which own or control more than 50 percent of the total...

5 CFR 839.1114 - Will OPM actuarially reduce my benefit if I elect to change my retirement coverage under these...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... 5 Administrative Personnel 2 2010-01-01 2010-01-01 false Will OPM actuarially reduce my benefit if... General Provisions § 839.1114 Will OPM actuarially reduce my benefit if I elect to change my retirement... Basic Employee Death Benefit (see § 839.1121). ...

Actuarial Evaluation of Pension Risks of Russia: from Theory to Practice

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Aleksandr Anatolyevich Kuklin

2017-09-01

Full Text Available The article discusses the origins of the development of pension systems in the world, shows the causes of the emergence of various models of public pension provision. We pay a particular attention to the history of the formation of the Russian pension system, and analyse the stages and causes of modern reform. From the position of modern legislation, we systemise the forms, types of pension provision and pension insurance in the Russian Federation from the point of view of the sources of financing and subjects of pension relations. The authors have defined the concept of “actuarial evaluation” from the point of view of the process and system approach. We have revealed the content of the pension risk category, as well as classified the pension risks by the spheres of origin. The authors have developed the methodology of actuarial estimation of the risks of the pension system classified by different criteria: demographic, economic, financial, labor risks. The proposed methodological approach to the evaluation of pension risks is based on the comprehensive assessment of socio-economic indicators and the identification of dependencies between socio-demographic and economic processes in the pension system and economy of the country. The authors have tested the developed tools on the actuarial estimation of the pension risks of the Russian Federation. The article presents the results of calculations and identifies critical risks for the Russian pension system. We have proved that stagnation processes in the economy and a high share of the shadow economy represent the greatest threat to the Russian pension system in the short term, whereas, the aging of the population and the increase in life expectancy — in the long term.

ActuArial Accounting – A Branch of the Financial Accounting

OpenAIRE

Gheorghe V. Lepadatu; Doina Maria Tilea

2010-01-01

The opening of the accounting to the actuarial calculation is a normal consequence of its evolutive spirit. At the origin of the international accounting standards lies the framework for preparing, presenting and disclosing the financial statements. The framework stays as a reference matrix, as a standard of standards, as a constitution of financial accounting. According to the international framework, the financial statements use different evaluation bases: the historical cost, the current c...

Learning Survival Models with On-Line Simulation Activities in the Actuarial Science Degree

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Fernandez-Morales

2011-03-01

Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to describe an on-line survival laboratory designed to enhance teaching and learning in the Statistics courses of the Actuarial Science Degree of the Uni-versity of Málaga. The objective of the on-line survival lab is to help students through a guided program of simulation activities with the understanding of the most important statistical concepts of the stochastic modeling of human survival, from an Actuarial point of view. The graphical interactive simulator is implemented as Java applets for the web version, and as a Javascript animation for a lite iPhone/iPod touch version. Finally, the results of a survey carried out at the end of the course are discussed to have a preliminary assessment of the students’ satisfaction with the resources, and their perception about the usefulness for their learning process.

Prediction of Basic Math Course Failure Rate in the Physics, Meteorology, Mathematics, Actuarial Sciences and Pharmacy Degree Programs

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis Rojas-Torres

2014-09-01

Full Text Available This paper summarizes a study conducted in 2013 with the purpose of predicting the failure rate of math courses taken by Pharmacy, Mathematics, Actuarial Science, Physics and Meteorology students at Universidad de Costa Rica (UCR. Using the Logistics Regression statistical techniques applied to the 2010 cohort, failure rates were predicted of students in the aforementioned programs in one of their Math introductory courses (Calculus 101 for Physics and Meteorology, Math Principles for Mathematics and Actuarial Science and Applied Differential Equations for Pharmacy. For these models, the UCR admission average, the student’s genre, and the average correct answers in the Quantitative Skills Test were used as predictor variables. The most important variable for all models was the Quantitative Skills Test, and the model with the highest correct classification rate was the Logistics Regression. For the estimated Physics-Meteorology, Pharmacy and Mathematics-Actuarial Science models, correct classifications were 89.8%, 73.6%, and 93.9%, respectively.

Special Issue “Actuarial and Financial Risks in Life Insurance, Pensions and Household Finance”

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luca Regis

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The aim of the Special Issue is to address some of the main challenges individuals and companies face in managing financial and actuarial risks, when dealing with their investment/retirement or business-related decisions [...

Desequilibrio financiero actuarial en el sistema de pensiones de jubilación del régimen general

OpenAIRE

José Enrique Devesa Carpio; Mar Devesa Carpio

2008-01-01

La principal aportación de este trabajo es la definición y la cuantificación del déficit financiero-actuarial de un sistema de pensiones. Para ello, en primer lugar, se obtiene un modelo teórico para el cálculo de la deuda implícita a través de dos métodos diferentes (“Método retrospectivo” y “Método prospectivo”), a partir del cual se pasa a definir, desde una perspectiva estrictamente financiero-actuarial, una nueva medida del desequilibrio del sistema de Seguridad Social, que está relacion...

Modelización financiero-actuarial de un seguro de dependencia = Long Term Care Insurance Actuarial Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Herranz Peinado, Patricia

2008-01-01

Full Text Available España ha seguido la tendencia de otros países en cuanto a la cobertura de las personas dependientes, es decir, aquellas que necesitan ayuda para realizar las tareas básicas de la vida diaria, y lo ha hecho mediante la aprobación de la Ley de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las personas en situación de Dependencia, que se basa en la financiación pública. A pesar de los esfuerzos para el desarrollo de la Ley, ésta no está dando los frutos que debiera haber dado y se hace necesaria la existencia de productos privados de cobertura que puedan atender a las necesidades de aquellos que los demandan. Dado los escasos estudios que sobre este tema existen todavía en nuestro país, el establecer una aproximación a las primas de un seguro privado de dependencia puede servir de referencia para el análisis de su comercialización por parte de las aseguradoras. En este trabajo se trata de analizar una serie de cuestiones que den respuesta a dos objetivos. Por una parte, establecer un modelo financiero-actuarial que sirva como apoyo en el diseño de productos privados que cubran la dependencia y, por otra, realizar una aproximación a las bases técnicas actuariales que lleven a la cuantificación de las primas. = Spain has followed the trend of other countries about long term care, that is, people who need help to perform the basic tasks of daily living. In December 2006, Spanish Parliament approved the law called Ley de Promoción de la Autonomía Personal y Atención a las personas en situación de Dependencia, with public financing. This law is not producing the expected results, and it makes necessary the existence of private insurance. Currently, there are few studies on long term care in our country. An approach to premiums of a private insurance can serve as reference for the studies by insurers. This work tries to study a series of questions responding simultaneously to two goals, establishing an actuarial model and, on

[Survival functions and life tables at the origins of actuarial mathematics].

Science.gov (United States)

Spelta, D

1997-01-01

"In the determination of death probabilities of an insured subject one can use either statistical data or a mathematical function. In this paper a survey of the relationship between mortality tables and survival functions from the origins until the first half of the nineteenth century is presented. The author has tried to find the methodological grounds which have induced the actuaries to prefer either of these tools." (EXCERPT)

THE EVOLUTION AND FUTURE OF SOCIAL SECURITY IN AFRICA: AN ACTUARIAL PERSPECTIVE

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Fatima Badat

2015-09-01

Full Text Available Social Security in most African countries has evolved significantly in terms of perspectives, motives, governance as well as innovation of benefits and administration. African countries are slowly, one by one, beginning to reassess the role of social security in correcting several social ills. Empowerment programs and grants are increasingly being provided via social security to women and the youth. From the roots of social security, even very low income countries, some of which have recently experienced several years of civil war and extreme economic hardships, have begun to improve benefit structures and amounts, which include national medical benefits. The attention being provided to social security and how it fits into a nation’s plans to lift itself out of poverty is increasingly involving the actuarial profession from international organisations such as ILO and ISSA as well as consulting actuaries and academics. Assessing and ensuring sustainability of social security benefits requires actuarial valuations to take long-term consequences involving demographic changes into account in the face of providing the benefits in the short term; asset liability modelling to ensure adequate resources are held; ensuring that results are appropriately reported and communicated to key stakeholders; as well as developing long-term strategic plans and dynamic systems surrounding all of these issues. In this paper, the role of actuaries is brought to the centre of the increasingly changing face and evolving culture of social security in taking Africa closer to poverty alleviation. La Seguridad Social en la mayoría de los países africanos ha evolucionado significativamente en cuanto a perspectivas, motivos, gobernanza, así como en innovación en las prestaciones y la adminsitración. Los países africanos están comenzando a reevaluar el papel de la Seguridad Social en la eliminación de determinados problemas sociales. Los programas de acción y los

Fair value: actuarial accounting for the markets... or for the accountants?

OpenAIRE

Jerman, Lambert

2013-01-01

Fair value accounting under IAS-IFRSs is often presented as market accounting that results from expression of the financial requirements of business management and accounting practice. By showing that fair value has the features of actuarial accounting, and is the product of a conceptual shift made necessary by the contemporary context and thus in dissonance with certain aspects of current accounting practice, this article demonstrates that fair value accounting in fact represents an opportun...

Age distributions of Greenlandic dwarf shrubs support concept of negligible actuarial senescence

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Dahlgren, J. P.; Rizzi, S.; Schweingruber, F. H.; Hellmann, L.; Büntgen, Ulf

2016-01-01

Roč. 7, č. 10 (2016), č. článku e01521. ISSN 2150-8925 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) EE2.3.20.0248 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : actuarial senescence * age distribution * age structure * Arctic dwarf shrubs * dendroecology * individual survival * mortality * penalized composite link model * plant aging * shrub demography Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour Impact factor: 2.490, year: 2016

Validation of a systems-actuarial computer process for multidimensional classification of child psychopathology.

Science.gov (United States)

McDermott, P A; Hale, R L

1982-07-01

Tested diagnostic classifications of child psychopathology produced by a computerized technique known as multidimensional actuarial classification (MAC) against the criterion of expert psychological opinion. The MAC program applies series of statistical decision rules to assess the importance of and relationships among several dimensions of classification, i.e., intellectual functioning, academic achievement, adaptive behavior, and social and behavioral adjustment, to perform differential diagnosis of children's mental retardation, specific learning disabilities, behavioral and emotional disturbance, possible communication or perceptual-motor impairment, and academic under- and overachievement in reading and mathematics. Classifications rendered by MAC are compared to those offered by two expert child psychologists for cases of 73 children referred for psychological services. Experts' agreement with MAC was significant for all classification areas, as was MAC's agreement with the experts held as a conjoint reference standard. Whereas the experts' agreement with MAC averaged 86.0% above chance, their agreement with one another averaged 76.5% above chance. Implications of the findings are explored and potential advantages of the systems-actuarial approach are discussed.

29 CFR 2520.104-42 - Waiver of certain actuarial information in the annual report.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... ERISA that the annual report include as part of the actuarial statement (Schedule B) 1 the present value of all of the plan's liabilities for nonforfeitable pension benefits allocated by termination... report. 2520.104-42 Section 2520.104-42 Labor Regulations Relating to Labor (Continued) EMPLOYEE BENEFITS...

Optimization of the Actuarial Model of Defined Contribution Pension Plan

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yan Li

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The paper focuses on the actuarial models of defined contribution pension plan. Through assumptions and calculations, the expected replacement ratios of three different defined contribution pension plans are compared. Specially, more significant considerable factors are put forward in the further cost and risk analyses. In order to get an assessment of current status, the paper finds a relationship between the replacement ratio and the pension investment rate using econometrics method. Based on an appropriate investment rate of 6%, an expected replacement ratio of 20% is reached.

PRESTACIONES NO CONTRIBUTIVAS DE INVALIDEZ: EL LÍMITE DE INGRESOS Y LA EQUIVALENCIA ACTUARIAL

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Daniel Hernández González

2009-02-01

Full Text Available El límite de ingresos es una herramienta útil para objetivar la carencia de rentas y permitir la obtención de pensiones no contributivas. Sin embargo, su aplicación práctica da lugar a escenarios de escasa justificación técnica o social, por lo que el uso de la equivalencia actuarial sería de gran utilidad para determinar de una forma más adecuada el verdadero estado patrimonial del individuo a lo largo del tiempo y, con ello, la realidad de sus derechos en materia de seguridad social. The limit of earnings is an useful tool to define the lack of income and allow access to a non-contributory pension. However, its practical application promotes scenarios with poor technical or social justification, so the use of actuarial equivalence would be useful to determine adequately the person’s real patrimony in the long term and, thus, the reality of their rights of social security.

Academic Attributes of College Freshmen that Lead to Success in Actuarial Studies in a Business College

Science.gov (United States)

Smith, Richard Manning; Schumacher, Phyllis

2006-01-01

The authors studied beginning undergraduate actuarial concentrators in a business college. They identified four variables (math Scholastic Aptitude Test [SAT] score, verbal SAT score, percentile rank in high school graduating class, and percentage score on a college mathematics placement exam) that were available for entering college students that…

Age distributions of Greenlandic dwarf shrubs support concept of negligible actuarial senescence

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Dahlgren, Johan; Rizzi, Silvia; Schweingruber, Fritz

2016-01-01

shrub species from 863 taproot samples collected in coastal east Greenland. Penalized composite link models (pclm) were used to fill gaps in the observed age ranges, caused by low species-specific sample sizes in relation to life span. Resulting distributions indicate that mortality patterns...... are independent of age. Actuarial senescence is thus negligible in these dwarf shrub populations. We suggest that smoothing techniques such as pclm enable consideration of noisy age data for determining age distributions. These distributions may, in turn, reveal age effects on demographic rates. Moreover, age...

ANÁLISIS ACTUARIAL DE LA INDEMNIZACIÓN POR NECESIDAD DE AYUDA DE TERCERA PERSONA ESTABLECIDA EN LA LEY 35/2015, DE 22 DE SEPTIEMBRE

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Olga Gómez Pérez-Cacho

2016-06-01

Full Text Available La Ley 35/2015, de 22 de septiembre, establece un nuevo sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación, el cual incluye indemnizaciones cuya finalidad es compensar los perjuicios patrimoniales que sufren los perjudicados, ya se trate de lucro cesante o de daño emergente.Conforme a lo establecido en la propia Ley, las más relevantes de esas indemnizaciones requieren una valoración actuarial, siendo ese el caso de la indemnización por necesidad de ayuda de tercera persona. El presente trabajo tiene por objeto analizar la metodología de valoración actuarial que, para esta indemnización, se incluye en las “Bases Técnicas Actuariales del Baremo” y los resultados que se obtienen en el marco de los principios y criterios que la Ley 35/2015 establece con carácter general para el sistema y, en particular, para dicha indemnización. The Law 35/2015, September 22nd, establishes a new system for valuation of traffic accident victims damages which includes compensations of economic damages (loss of income/profit or emerging damage. According to the Law, the more relevant of these compensations require actuarial valuation. The compensation for victims requiring third party aid is one of them. In this paper, we analyze the actuarial valuation methodology that the “Bases Técnicas Actuariales del Baremo” (Scale Actuarial Technical Basis set to calculate this compensation, as well as the assumed biometric, economic and financial hypothesis and the obtained results. The framework for this is the set of principles and criteria which the Law 35/2015 establishes in general for the system and in particular for this compensation.

76 FR 18649 - Technical Revisions to Actuarial Information on Form 5500 Annual Return/Report for Pension Plans...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-05

... to Actuarial Information on Form 5500 Annual Return/Report for Pension Plans Electing Funding Alternatives Under Pension Relief Act of 2010 AGENCY: Employee Benefits Security Administration, Labor. ACTION... retroactively available to defined benefit pension plans under the Preservation of Access to Care for Medicare...

Actuarial modeling of cost of voluntary pension insurance of the population of the region

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Mikhailova Svetlana Sergeevna

2013-06-01

Full Text Available In article approach to determination of net value of the contract of pension insurance for the man's and female population, considering regional demographic features is offered. Results of actuarial calculation of the size pure net - rates of individual pension insurance are presented, "sensitivity" of cost of insurance is defined by methods of statistical modeling to key parameters of a pension product for the region population.

El tratamiento actuarial de los periodos de carencia y el contraseguro de primas en el seguro de dependencia.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ricote Gil, Fernando.

2003-01-01

Full Text Available La dependencia es un estado en el que se encuentran las personas que por razones ligadas a la falta o la pérdida de autonomía física, psíquica o intelectual tienen necesidad de asistencia y/o atención significativa para la realización los actos corrientes de la vida diaria. Dentro de la iniciativa privada, el sector asegurador juega un importante papel para la prestación de garantías derivadas de esta cobertura. Un aspecto fundamental en el estudio de esta cobertura es la consideración de los periodos de carencia y el tratamiento del contraseguro de primas durante los mismo. Se analiza el riesgo actuarial y su tratamiento en esta cobertura y la incidencia en la valoración actuarial de las primas por prestaciones de dependencia.

5 CFR 839.1121 - What is the Actuarial Reduction for the Basic Employee Death Benefit (BEDB)?

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... will be the amount of the BEDB divided by the present value factor for your age at the time of the... Basic Employee Death Benefit (BEDB)? 839.1121 Section 839.1121 Administrative Personnel OFFICE OF... Benefits § 839.1121 What is the Actuarial Reduction for the Basic Employee Death Benefit (BEDB)? If you...

76 FR 67572 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-11-01

... section 1839 of the Act, requires that, starting on January 1,2007, the Part B premium a beneficiary pays... private sector costs of this notice fall below this threshold as well. Executive Order 13132 establishes... B premium rate for 2012 is $99.90, which is equal to 50 percent of the monthly actuarial rate for...

75 FR 68790 - Medicare Program; Medicare Part B Monthly Actuarial Rates, Premium Rate, and Annual Deductible...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-09

... the Act, requires that, starting on January 1, 2007, the Part B premium a beneficiary pays each month... private sector costs of this notice fall below this threshold as well. Executive Order 13132 establishes... B premium rate for 2011 is $115.40, which is equal to 50 percent of the monthly actuarial rate for...

Stochastic Actuarial Modelling of a Defined-Benefit Social Security Pension Scheme: An Analytical Approach

OpenAIRE

Iyer, Subramaniam

2017-01-01

Among the systems in place in different countries for the protection of the population against the long-term contingencies of old-age (or retirement), disability and death (or survivorship), defined-benefit social security pension schemes, i.e. social insurance pension schemes, by far predominate, despite the recent trend towards defined-contribution arrangements in social security reforms. Actuarial valuations of these schemes, unlike other branches of insurance, continue to be carried out a...

The Actuarial Accounting in the Modern Financial-Accounting Management with Applications to the Entities

OpenAIRE

Gheorghe V. Lepadatu

2012-01-01

The opening of the accounting to the actuarial calculation is a normal consequence of its evolving spirit. At the origin of the international accounting standards lies the framework for preparing, presenting and disclosing the financial statements. The framework stays as a reference matrix, as a standard of standards, as a constitution of financial accounting. According to the international framework, the financial statements use different evaluation bases: the historical cost, the current co...

Methodological issues underlying multiple decrement life table analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Mode, C J; Avery, R C; Littman, G S; Potter, R G

1977-02-01

In this paper, the actuarial method of multiple decrement life table analysis of censored, longitudinal data is examined. The discussion is organized in terms of the first segment of usage of an intrauterine device. Weaknesses of the actuarial approach are pointed out, and an alternative approach, based on the classical model of competing risks, is proposed. Finally, the actuarial and the alternative method of analyzing censored data are compared, using data from the Taichung Medical Study on Intrauterine Devices.

LA ESCALA DE PORCENTAJES DE LA LEY 27/2011: UN ENFOQUE ACTUARIAL PARA UN NUEVO MODELO SOSTENIBLE

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Pedro Javier Budia Aldana

2014-05-01

Full Text Available La Ley 27/2011, de 1 de agosto, sobre actualización, adecuación y modernización del sistema de seguridad social, ha variado la escala de porcentajes aplicables a la base reguladora en función del número de años cotizados. Los nuevos porcentajes afectan a los trabajadores que se vayan a jubilar con periodos de cotización entre 15 y 37 años y, especialmente, a aquellos trabajadores cuyas pensiones sean bajas y puedan ser beneficiarios de complemento a mínimos. Estas variaciones, que se han ido produciendo en la escala de porcentajes a través de sucesivos cambios legislativos, han llevado al actuario a estudiar cuáles serían los porcentajes de equilibrio financiero-actuarial según el número de años cotizados y la edad de inicio en el mercado laboral para cubrir todas las pensiones que pueda causar el trabajador. The Law 27/2011 of 1 August, about updating, improvement and modernization of the social security system has changed the scale of percentages applicable to the regulatory base depending on the number of years of contributions. The new rates affect workers who are to retire on contribution periods between 15 and 37 years, and especially to those workers whose pensions are low and can receive minimum supplements. These variations, that have they occurred in the percentage scale through successive legislative changes, have led to the actuary to study what percentage of financial and actuarial balance would be according to the number of years of contributions and the age of onset in the labor market to cover all pensions that may cause the worker.

If You Build It, Will They Come? Tales of Developing a New Degree Program in Actuarial Science

Science.gov (United States)

Marano, Lisa E.

2014-01-01

In 2007, the B.S. in Applied Mathematics program consisting of five concentrations, including Actuarial Science, began at West Chester University of Pennsylvania, and we graduated our first class (of one) that December. We describe our program, some ideas to consider when planning your own program, and share some of the successes of our program…

Editorial: A Celebration of the Ties That Bind Us: Connections between Actuarial Science and Mathematical Finance

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Albert Cohen

2018-01-01

Full Text Available In the nearly thirty years since Hans Buhlmann (Buhlmann (1987 set out the notion of the Actuary of the Third Kind, the connection between Actuarial Science (AS and Mathematical Finance (MF has been continually reinforced. As siblings in the family of Risk Management techniques, practitioners in both fields have learned a great deal from each other. The collection of articles in this volume are contributed by scholars who are not only experts in areas of AS and MF, but also those who present diverse perspectives from both industry and academia. Topics from multiple areas, such as Stochastic Modeling, Credit Risk, Monte Carlo Simulation, and Pension Valuation, among others, that were maybe thought to be the domain of one type of risk manager are shown time and again to have deep value to other areas of risk management as well. The articles in this collection, in my opinion, contribute techniques, ideas, and overviews of tools that specialists in both AS and MF will find useful and interesting to implement in their work. It is also my hope that this collection will inspire future collaboration between those who seek an interdisciplinary approach to risk management.

Mating Reverses Actuarial Aging in Female Queensland Fruit Flies.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Sarsha Yap

Full Text Available Animals that have a long pre-reproductive adult stage often employ mechanisms that minimize aging over this period in order to preserve reproductive lifespan. In a remarkable exception, one tephritid fruit fly exhibits substantial pre-reproductive aging but then mitigates this aging during a diet-dependent transition to the reproductive stage, after which life expectancy matches that of newly emerged flies. Here, we ascertain the role of nutrients, sexual maturation and mating in mitigation of previous aging in female Queensland fruit flies. Flies were provided one of three diets: 'sugar', 'essential', or 'yeast-sugar'. Essential diet contained sugar and micronutrients found in yeast but lacked maturation-enabling protein. At days 20 and 30, a subset of flies on the sugar diet were switched to essential or yeast-sugar diet, and some yeast-sugar fed flies were mated 10 days later. Complete mitigation of actuarial aging was only observed in flies that were switched to a yeast-sugar diet and mated, indicating that mating is key. Identifying the physiological processes associated with mating promise novel insights into repair mechanisms for aging.

Resultados económicos de la gestión de los planes y fondos de pensiones: La ganancia actuarial

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García González, A.

1998-01-01

Full Text Available Uno de los objetivos que persigue el gestor de un plan de pensiones de prestación definida como el analizado en este artículo, al utilizar los métodos de valoración actuarial para la determinación del coste anual del mismo, es comprobar que los recursos financieros del fondo en cada momento de su valoración sean los adecuados para hacer frente al pago de los compromisos que respecto a los beneficiarios tiene asumido el plan. Sin embargo, este fondo no siempre es capaz de garantizar estos compromisos y ello está motivado, entre otras causas, por las desviaciones que se dan entre la realidad y las hipótesis actuariales establecidas en el momento de su implantación. Estas desviaciones repercutirán positiva o negativamente en el nivel del fondo, dando lugar a la denominada ganancia actuarial del plan, que es una medida de la gestión económico-financiera del mismo. Por tanto, el objetivo de este trabajo es analizar estas desviaciones utilizando para ello la metodología de la Dinámica de Sistemas. Con el fin de describir cada uno de los componentes que integran la ganancia actuarial y de comprobar la repercusión que tienen sobre el nivel del fondo del plan en cada momento, se realizará una simulación de estas desviaciones a través de un programa adecuado con el fin de obtener una serie de resultados por medio de los cuales se puedan controlar aquéllas y, en consecuencia, reducir en la medida de lo posible el nivel deficitario del fondo del plan.

Reforming Military Retirement: Analysis in Support of the Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

of the Actuary cheerfully provided key input for our analysis, no matter the time pressure. We also thank our RAND colleagues David Knapp and...DoD Actuary . The final task was to analyze the cost savings and change in government outlays during the transition to the steady state, including...last part of the chapter presents our steady-state estimates of cost savings for three cases, making use of input received from the DoD Actuary , for

Calculo y comparacion de la prima de un reaseguro de salud usando el modelo de opciones de Black-Scholes y el modelo actuarial

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Luis Eduardo Giron

2015-12-01

Full Text Available La presente investigación pretende calcular y comparar la prima de un reaseguro  usando el modelo de opciones de Black-Scholes y el modelo clásico actuarial tradicional. El período de análisis va desde enero de 2011 hasta diciembre de 2012. Los resultados obtenidos muestran que el modelo de Black-Scholes, que se utiliza normalmente para valorar opciones financieras, puede ser también usado para la estimación de primas de reaseguros de salud; y que la prima neta estimada a partir de este modelo se aproxima a las establecidas por el método actuarial, excepto cuando el deducible del reaseguro es muy alto (por encima de $200.000.000.

An actuarial analysis shows that offering lung cancer screening as an insurance benefit would save lives at relatively low cost.

Science.gov (United States)

Pyenson, Bruce S; Sander, Marcia S; Jiang, Yiding; Kahn, Howard; Mulshine, James L

2012-04-01

Lung cancer screening is not established as a public health practice, yet the results of a recent large randomized controlled trial showed that screening with low-dose spiral computed tomography reduces lung cancer mortality. Using actuarial models, this study estimated the costs and benefits of annual lung cancer screening offered as a commercial insurance benefit in the high-risk US population ages 50-64. Assuming current commercial reimbursement rates for treatment, we found that screening would cost about $1 per insured member per month in 2012 dollars. The cost per life-year saved would be below $19,000, an amount that compares favorably with screening for cervical, breast, and colorectal cancers. Our results suggest that commercial insurers should consider lung cancer screening of high-risk individuals to be high-value coverage and provide it as a benefit to people who are at least fifty years old and have a smoking history of thirty pack-years or more. We also believe that payers and patients should demand screening from high-quality, low-cost providers, thus helping set an example of efficient system innovation.

Offering lung cancer screening to high-risk medicare beneficiaries saves lives and is cost-effective: an actuarial analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Pyenson, Bruce S; Henschke, Claudia I; Yankelevitz, David F; Yip, Rowena; Dec, Ellynne

2014-08-01

By a wide margin, lung cancer is the most significant cause of cancer death in the United States and worldwide. The incidence of lung cancer increases with age, and Medicare beneficiaries are often at increased risk. Because of its demonstrated effectiveness in reducing mortality, lung cancer screening with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) imaging will be covered without cost-sharing starting January 1, 2015, by nongrandfathered commercial plans. Medicare is considering coverage for lung cancer screening. To estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness (ie, cost per life-year saved) of LDCT lung cancer screening of the Medicare population at high risk for lung cancer. Medicare costs, enrollment, and demographics were used for this study; they were derived from the 2012 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (CMS) beneficiary files and were forecast to 2014 based on CMS and US Census Bureau projections. Standard life and health actuarial techniques were used to calculate the cost and cost-effectiveness of lung cancer screening. The cost, incidence rates, mortality rates, and other parameters chosen by the authors were taken from actual Medicare data, and the modeled screenings are consistent with Medicare processes and procedures. Approximately 4.9 million high-risk Medicare beneficiaries would meet criteria for lung cancer screening in 2014. Without screening, Medicare patients newly diagnosed with lung cancer have an average life expectancy of approximately 3 years. Based on our analysis, the average annual cost of LDCT lung cancer screening in Medicare is estimated to be $241 per person screened. LDCT screening for lung cancer in Medicare beneficiaries aged 55 to 80 years with a history of ≥30 pack-years of smoking and who had smoked within 15 years is low cost, at approximately $1 per member per month. This assumes that 50% of these patients were screened. Such screening is also highly cost-effective, at <$19,000 per life-year saved. If all eligible Medicare

Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT): The development of an actuarial risk assessment instrument for predicting general offense recidivism on the basis of police records.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Put, Claudia E

2014-06-01

Estimating the risk for recidivism is important for many areas of the criminal justice system. In the present study, the Youth Actuarial Risk Assessment Tool (Y-ARAT) was developed for juvenile offenders based solely on police records, with the aim to estimate the risk of general recidivism among large groups of juvenile offenders by police officers without clinical expertise. On the basis of the Y-ARAT, juvenile offenders are classified into five risk groups based on (combinations of) 10 variables including different types of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of incidents in which the juvenile was a suspect, total number of other incidents, total number of incidents in which co-occupants at the youth's address were suspects, gender, and age at first incident. The Y-ARAT was developed on a sample of 2,501 juvenile offenders and validated on another sample of 2,499 juvenile offenders, showing moderate predictive accuracy (area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve = .73), with little variation between the construction and validation sample. The predictive accuracy of the Y-ARAT was considered sufficient to justify its use as a screening instrument for the police. © The Author(s) 2013.

Empirical analysis of retirement pension and IFRS adoption effects on accounting information: glance at IT industry.

Science.gov (United States)

Kim, JeongYeon

2014-01-01

This study reviews new pension accounting with K-IFRS and provides empirical changes in liability for retirement allowances with adoption of K-IFRS. It will help to understand the effect of pension accounting on individual firm's financial report and the importance of public announcement of actuarial assumptions. Firms that adopted K-IFRS had various changes in retirement liability compared to the previous financial report not based on K-IFRS. Their actuarial assumptions for pension accounting should be announced, but only few of them were published. Data analysis shows that the small differences of the actuarial assumption may result in a big change of retirement related liability. Firms within IT industry also have similar behaviors, which means that additional financial regulations for pension accounting are recommended.

Substance Abuse among High-Risk Sexual Offenders: Do Measures of Lifetime History of Substance Abuse Add to the Prediction of Recidivism over Actuarial Risk Assessment Instruments?

Science.gov (United States)

Looman, Jan; Abracen, Jeffrey

2011-01-01

There has been relatively little research on the degree to which measures of lifetime history of substance abuse add to the prediction of risk based on actuarial measures alone among sexual offenders. This issue is of relevance in that a history of substance abuse is related to relapse to substance using behavior. Furthermore, substance use has…

Empirical Analysis of Retirement Pension and IFRS Adoption Effects on Accounting Information: Glance at IT Industry

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

JeongYeon Kim

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study reviews new pension accounting with K-IFRS and provides empirical changes in liability for retirement allowances with adoption of K-IFRS. It will help to understand the effect of pension accounting on individual firm’s financial report and the importance of public announcement of actuarial assumptions. Firms that adopted K-IFRS had various changes in retirement liability compared to the previous financial report not based on K-IFRS. Their actuarial assumptions for pension accounting should be announced, but only few of them were published. Data analysis shows that the small differences of the actuarial assumption may result in a big change of retirement related liability. Firms within IT industry also have similar behaviors, which means that additional financial regulations for pension accounting are recommended.

Recursos tecnológicos y actividades no presenciales para un mejor aprendizaje de la Estadística Actuarial

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Antonio Fernández Morales

2010-12-01

Full Text Available En este artículo se describe el diseño y los resultados obtenidos con una estrategia didáctica innovadora para el aprendizaje de la Estadística Actuarial en la licenciatura de Ciencias Actuariales y Financieras de la Universidad de Málaga. Mediante un uso intensivo de actividades no presenciales y elementos tecnológicos que favorecen el aprendizaje en movilidad se pretende potenciar el aprendizaje autónomo, colaborativo y contextualizado. Para ello se han diseñado, entre otras, actividades de identificación y asimilación de competencias, un laboratorio virtual de supervivencia basado en un simulador gráfico interactivo y un microportal para dispositivos iPhone y iPod touch de Apple.

ANÁLISIS Y CONTEXTUALIZACIÓN DE LOS ASPECTOS DE ÍNDOLE ACTUARIAL Y DE SEGURIDAD SOCIAL DE LA LEY 35/2015 DE REFORMA DEL SISTEMA PARA LA VALORACIÓN DE LOS DAÑOS Y PERJUICIOS CAUSADOS A LAS PERSONAS EN ACCIDENTES DE CIRCULACIÓN

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Luis María Sáez de Jáuregui Sanz

2016-06-01

Full Text Available En este trabajo se analizan y se contextualizan los aspectos de índole actuarial y de seguridad social recogidos en la Ley 35/2015 de reforma del sistema para la valoración de los daños y perjuicios causados a las personas en accidentes de circulación. Los preliminares de la Ley 35/2015 comienzan en 2011 con la creación de una Comisión de Expertos. A partir de ahí, se inicia un proceso que culmina, en primer lugar, en 2014 en Junta Consultiva de Seguros y Fondos de Pensiones con la entrega de un Texto articulado, unas Tablas de indemnización y unas Bases técnicas actuariales que configuran un nuevo y novedoso sistema de valoración y que termina de finalizar –tras su trámite parlamentario con prácticamente nulas modificaciones en lo fundamental– con la entrada en vigor el 1 de enero de 2016 de la Ley 35/2015, recogiéndose por primera vez en el ordenamiento jurídico español un modelo actuarial para indemnizar el lucro cesante y el daño emergente. This paper analyzes and contextualizes the actuarial and social security features of the brand new Law 35/2015 of reform for assessing the damage caused to people in road accidents. Preliminaries of the Law 35/2015 began in 2011 with the creation of a Committee of Experts. From there, a process, culminated first in 2014, in the Advisory Board of Insurance and Pension Funds with the delivery of an articulated text, tables compensation and the actuarial technical bases that form a new and novel assessment system, and ended -after the end of its parliamentary process with virtually no changes in fundamentally- with the entry into force, on January 1st of 2016, of the Law 35/2015, introducing for the first time in the Spanish legal system an actuarial model to compensate people for loss of profits and its consequential damages.

A Macro Analysis of DoD Logistics Systems. Volume 2. Structure and Analysis of the Air Force Logistics System

Science.gov (United States)

1977-09-01

performance measures discussed earlier is the "Engine Actuarial Data Summary" (EADS) (AFLC Form 992), compiled from D024F actuarial data. EADS is...3.2,452.3 PlyLWn M"Is, 404.670 432.603 408,553. 413.940 PMiSMA-00023 AF asm -haiw pua-flywa hma tread =100% PTtU94411 "Weul ’A101) 16,839.6 1.6,308.0...Engine Actuarial Data Summary. ENORS - 2ngine Not Operationally Ready, Supply. EOQ Items - Economic Order Quantity Items; i.e., expense-type items, not

75 FR 35098 - Federal Employees' Retirement System; Normal Cost Percentages

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-21

... normal cost percentages and requests for actuarial assumptions and data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary, Office of Planning and Policy Analysis, Office of Personnel Management... Regulations, regulates how normal costs are determined. Recently, the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service...

75 FR 35096 - Federal Employees' Retirement System; Present Value Factors

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-21

... by the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service Retirement System. DATES: The revised present value.... ADDRESSES: Send requests for actuarial assumptions and data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary, Office of Planning and Policy Analysis, Office of Personnel Management, Room 4307, 1900...

76 FR 32243 - Federal Employees' Retirement System; Present Value Factors

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-03

... adopted by the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service Retirement System. DATES: The revised present value.... ADDRESSES: Send requests for actuarial assumptions and data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary, Office of Planning and Policy Analysis, Office of Personnel Management, Room 4307, 1900...

76 FR 32241 - Civil Service Retirement System; Present Value Factors

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-03

... in the economic assumptions adopted by the Board of Actuaries of the Civil Service Retirement System... data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary, Office of Planning and Policy Analysis...- 335, based on changed economic assumptions adopted by the Board of Actuaries of the CSRS. Those...

A Policy Analysis of Public School Retirement Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Lewis, Tara; Teeter, Matt

2010-01-01

The purpose of this policy analysis was to examine the Missouri Public School Retirement System (PSRS). The team investigated the under-funding of PSRS, relating to sustainability and the feasibility of the system's use of one lever, contribution rate, to stabilize the retirement system, and to meet actuary needs and governmental requirements. The…

The European Insurance Industry: A PEST Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Charmaine Barbara

2017-05-01

Full Text Available The insurance industry plays an important role for European economic stability and the threats and opportunities it faces should be carefully determined. In this paper we highlight the main challenges by using a Political, Economic, Social and Technological (PEST analysis. This work applies conventional actuarial thought on this area by focusing strictly on the European sector.

Multidimensional credibility: a Bayesian analysis of policyholders holding multiple contracts

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonio, K.; Guillén, M.; Pérez Marín, A.M.

2011-01-01

Property and casualty actuaries are professional experts in the economic assessment of uncertain events related to non-life insurance products (e.g. fire, liability or motor insurance). For the construction of a fair and reasonable tariff associated with the risks in their portfolio, actuaries have

Multidimensional credibility: a Bayesian analysis of policyholders holding multiple policies

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Antonio, K.; Guillén, M.; Pérez Martín, A.M.

2010-01-01

Property and casualty actuaries are professional experts in the economic assessment of uncertain events related to non-life insurance products (eg fire, liability or motor insurance). For the construction of a fair and reasonable tariff associated with the risks in their portfolio, actuaries have

Premium adjustment: actuarial analysis on epidemiological models ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In this paper, we analyse insurance premium adjustment in the context of an epidemiological model where the insurer's future financial liability is greater than the premium from patients. In this situation, it becomes extremely difficult for the insurer since a negative reserve would severely increase its risk of insolvency, ...

Prognostic factors in nodular lymphomas: a multivariate analysis based on the Princess Margaret Hospital experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gospodarowicz, M.K.; Bush, R.S.; Brown, T.C.; Chua, T.

1984-01-01

A total of 1,394 patients with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma were treated at the Princess Margaret Hospital between January 1, 1967 and December 31, 1978. Overall actuarial survival of 525 patients with nodular lymphomas was 40% at 12 years; survival of patients with localized (Stage I and III) nodular lymphomas treated with radical radiation therapy was 58%. Significant prognostic factors defined by multivariate analysis included patient's age, stage, histology, tumor bulk, and presence of B symptoms. By combining prognostic factors, distinct prognostic groups have been identified within the overall population. Patients with Stage I and II disease, small or medium bulk, less than 70 years of age achieved 92% 12 year actuarial survival and a 73% relapse-free rate in 12 years of follow-up. These patients represent groups highly curable with irradiation

Using the Statistical Indicators for the General Insurances Activity

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ion Partachi

2007-04-01

Full Text Available The statistics of the general insurances activity is largely used in the actuarial calculations. The actuarial analysis are achieved exclusively on the basis of primary and derived indicators, which are drawn up by various statistical methods. The statistical indicators which are used in this respect are obtained on the basis of the factors and conditions allowing the compensation cases to occur.The actuarial analysis is performed over the time as well, by using the chronological which allow the decomposition of the phenomenon being studied by its factors of influence.In this article, after briefly presenting a number of point of view regarding the utilization of the statistical indicators in the actuarial analysis, we have analyzed, successively, a series of issues, such as: the statistical indicators as regards the general insurances fund forming, expressed in physical and value units, or as absolute, relative and average volumes; the statistical indicators of the utilization of the general insurances funds (with the same diversified form of expression and the statistical indicators of the outcomes of the general insurances activity.A particular accent went to the underlying of certain methodological aspects regarding the calculation of the above mentioned indicators, emphasizing certain particular characteristics concerning their utilization in the frame of the actuarial analysis.The article is stressing the clarification of the fact that these indicators are used in the actuarial analysis as a real system. The respective proportions are enumerated, by underlying the concrete possibilities of computation, which secure the possibility of performing the necessary analysis involved by a decisional process.

Modified Bayesian Kriging for Noisy Response Problems for Reliability Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

52242, USA nicholas-gaul@uiowa.edu Mary Kathryn Cowles Department of Statistics & Actuarial Science College of Liberal Arts and Sciences , The...Forrester, A. I. J., & Keane, A. J. (2009). Recent advances in surrogate-based optimization. Progress in Aerospace Sciences , 45(1–3), 50-79. doi...Wiley. [27] Sacks, J., Welch, W. J., Toby J. Mitchell, & Wynn, H. P. (1989). Design and analysis of computer experiments. Statistical Science , 4

Multidimensional credibility: a Bayesian analysis of policyholders holding multiple contracts

OpenAIRE

Antonio, K.; Guillén, M.; Pérez Marín, A.M.

2011-01-01

Property and casualty actuaries are professional experts in the economic assessment of uncertain events related to non-life insurance products (e.g. fire, liability or motor insurance). For the construction of a fair and reasonable tariff associated with the risks in their portfolio, actuaries have many statistical techniques in their toolbox. In this paper tools for the pricing of multivariate risks are considered. Examples of situations where this problem occurs are numerous; e.g. workers’ ...

Chemical Stockpile Disposal Program. Risk Analysis of the Continued Storage of Chemical Munitions

Science.gov (United States)

1987-08-01

assessment. has been utilized in various industries for some time. Insurance companies have long used actuarial data for statistical eva- luations to justify...hand, are examples of major industry efforts to quantify risks of low-frequency events for which no good actuarial data exist. The nuclear power...not all the components exhibit the asm reliability. Intrinsic variations can N be caused, for example, by different ianupacturers, mrinten.c prac- tices

A Comparative Analysis of Outstanding Claim Reserves

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zlata Djuric

2017-12-01

Full Text Available The key processes in the business of insurance companies which define the financial viability of their business activities, as the most important element, are the adequate amount of technical reserves. A qualitative assessment of the technical reserves level is the basic support to the management of the key business processes and proper strategic and financial decision-making in order to maximize the viability, profitability, competitiveness, and further development of the company. Based on the data on the operations of an insurance company, within a single line of insurance, different, in practice, most frequently used methods were applied in order to determine the deviation amplitude of the projected amounts from the actual claims. Another direction of research focuses on actuarial practice in non-life insurance companies operating in the territory of the Republic of Serbia. The comparative analysis of the obtained projection points to the fact that the chosen methods, commonly used in actuarial practice in the Republic of Serbia, should be monitored and reviewed. The results of the multidirectional research and detection of the existing problems provide a useful framework and a stimulating mechanism, as well as the guidelines to improve the operations and better positioning of insurance in the commercial and economic environment of the Republic of Serbia.

Game Theory, Probabilistic Risk, and Randomized Strategy: The Rulebook Revisited with Emphasis on Coast Guard Mission Space

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-01

Anti-terrorism Risk Based Decision Aid ASME American Society of Mechanical Engineers BTRA Biological Agent Risk Analysis C Consequence CI/KR...then, insurance companies have been flourishing, using a disciplined risk analysis approach known today as actuarial science (e.g., Hubbard, 2009, p...59). Actuarial science was perhaps the first quantitative risk assessment technique. Taking a closer look, this kind of assessment can be broken

Late gastrointestinal and urogenital side-effects after radiotherapy – Incidence and prevalence. Subgroup-analysis within the prospective Austrian–German phase II multicenter trial for localized prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Schmid, Maximilian P.; Pötter, Richard; Bombosch, Valentin; Sljivic, Samir; Kirisits, Christian; Dörr, Wolfgang; Goldner, Gregor

2012-01-01

Purpose: In general late side-effects after prostate cancer radiotherapy are presented by the use of actuarial incidence rates. The aim of this analysis was to describe additional relevant aspects of late side effects after prostate cancer radiotherapy. Materials and methods: All 178 primary prostate-cancer patients were treated within the Austrian–German multicenter trial by three-dimensional radiotherapy up to a local dose of 70 Gy (low/intermediate-risk) or 74 Gy (high-risk), respectively. Late gastrointestinal/urogenital (GI/GU) side-effects were prospectively assessed by the use of EORTC/RTOG score. Maximum side-effects, actuarial incidence rate and prevalence rates, initial appearance and duration of ⩾grade 2 toxicity were evaluated. Results: Median follow-up was 74 months. Late GI/GU side-effects ⩾grade 2 were detected in 15% (27/178) and 22% (40/178). The corresponding 5-year actuarial incidence rates for GI/GU side-effects were 19% and 23%, whereas the prevalence was 1–2% and 2–7% after 5 years, respectively. Late side effects ⩾grade 2 appeared within 5 years after radiotherapy in all patients with GI side-effects (27/27) and in 85% (34/40) of the patients with GU side-effects, respectively and lasted for less than 3 years in 90% (GI) and 98% (GU). Conclusions: This study demonstrates that the majority of late GI and GU side effects after primary external beam radiotherapy for prostate cancer are transient. Using only actuarial incidence rates for reporting side effects may lead to misinterpretation or overestimation. The combination of incidence and prevalence rates provides a more comprehensive view on the complex issue of late side effects.

The dimensionality of professional commitment

OpenAIRE

Jeffrey J. Bagraim

2003-01-01

This paper examines the dimensionality of professional commitment amongst a sample of 240 South African actuaries. Data were obtained, via a mailed questionnaire, from members of the South African Actuarial Society employed in the financial services industry. Statistical analysis conducted on the data showed that the 3-component model first proposed by Meyer, Allen and Smith (1993) is appropriate for understanding professional commitment amongst South African professionals. The analysis also ...

Defining the key-parameters of insurance product in Islamic insurance

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Galim Zaribzyanovich Vakhitov

2015-06-01

Full Text Available Objective to define the range of actuarial calculations in Islamic insurance to study the main differences of the traditional and Islamic insurance to define what changes in calculations entail the above differences. Methods mathematical modeling probabilistic analysis of insurance risks adaptation of methods of actuarial mathematics to the principles of Islamic insurance. Results the mathematical form of the takafulfund models is presented the distribution is analyzed of a random variable of the resulting insurance fund or the insurance company balance in a particular fixed insurance portfolio. Scientific novelty calculation are presented of the optimal tariff rate in takaful. Islamic insurance is an innovative area of insurance industry. Actuarial calculations that meet the Sharia rules are still being developed. The authors set the new tasks of actuarial calculations including the specified changes in the calculation of the optimal tariff rate imposed by the Islamic insurance principles. Practical value the results obtained can be used in the actuarial calculations of the Islamic insurance companies. nbsp

Analysis of Prognostic Factors and Patterns of Recurrence in Patients With Pathologic Stage III Endometrial Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Patel, Samir; Portelance, Lorraine; Gilbert, Lucy; Tan, Leonard; Stanimir, Gerald; Duclos, Marie; Souhami, Luis

2007-01-01

Purpose: To retrospectively assess prognostic factors and patterns of recurrence in patients with pathologic Stage III endometrial cancer. Methods and Materials: Between 1989 and 2003, 107 patients with pathologic International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Stage III endometrial adenocarcinoma confined to the pelvis were treated at our institution. Adjuvant radiotherapy (RT) was delivered to 68 patients (64%). The influence of multiple patient- and treatment-related factors on pelvic and distant control and overall survival (OS) was evaluated. Results: Median follow-up for patients at risk was 41 months. Five-year actuarial OS was significantly improved in patients treated with adjuvant RT (68%) compared with those with resection alone (50%; p = 0.029). Age, histology, grade, uterine serosal invasion, adnexal involvement, number of extrauterine sites, and treatment with adjuvant RT predicted for improved survival in univariate analysis. Multivariate analysis revealed that grade, uterine serosal invasion, and treatment with adjuvant RT were independent predictors of survival. Five-year actuarial pelvic control was improved significantly with the delivery of adjuvant RT (74% vs. 49%; p = 0.011). Depth of myometrial invasion and treatment with adjuvant RT were independent predictors of pelvic control in multivariate analysis. Conclusions: Multiple prognostic factors predicting for the outcome of pathologic Stage III endometrial cancer patients were identified in this analysis. In particular, delivery of adjuvant RT seems to be a significant independent predictor for improved survival and pelvic control, suggesting that pelvic RT should be routinely considered in the management of these patients

High-dose-rate brachytherapy in the treatment of uterine cervix cancer. Analysis of dose effectiveness and late complications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrigno, Robson; Novaes, Paulo Eduardo Ribeiro dos Santos; Pellizzon, Antonio Cassio Assis; Maia, Maria Aparecida Conte; Fogarolli, Ricardo Cesar; Gentil, Andre Cavalcanti; Salvajoli, Joao Victor

2001-01-01

Purpose: This retrospective analysis aims to report results of patients with cervix cancer treated by external beam radiotherapy (EBR) and high-dose-rate (HDR) brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: From September 1992 to December 1996, 138 patients with FIGO Stages II and III and mean age of 56 years were treated. Median EBR to the whole pelvis was 45 Gy in 25 fractions. Parametrial boost was performed in 93% of patients, with a median dose of 14.4 Gy. Brachytherapy with HDR was performed during EBR or following its completion with a dose of 24 Gy in four weekly fractions of 6 Gy to point A. Median overall treatment time was of 60 days. Patient age, tumor stage, and overall treatment time were variables analyzed for survival and local control. Cumulative biologic effective dose (BED) at rectal and bladder reference points were correlated with late complications in these organs and dose of EBR at parametrium was correlated with small bowel complications. Results: Median follow-up time was 38 months. Overall survival, disease-free survival, and local control at 5 years was 53.7%, 52.7%, and 62%, respectively. By multivariate and univariate analysis, overall treatment time up to 50 days was the only statistically significant adverse variable for overall survival (p=0.003) and actuarial local control (p=0.008). The 5-year actuarial incidence of rectal, bladder, and small bowel late complications was 16%, 11%, and 14%, respectively. Patients treated with cumulative BED at rectum points above 110 Gy 3 and at bladder point above 125 Gy 3 had a higher but not statistically significant 5-year actuarial rate of complications at these organs (18% vs. 12%, p=0.49 and 17% vs. 9%, p=0.20, respectively). Patients who received parametrial doses larger than 59 Gy had a higher 5-year actuarial rate of complications in the small bowel; however, this was not statistically significant (19% vs. 10%, p=0.260). Conclusion: This series suggests that 45 Gy to the whole pelvis combined with

External beam irradiation of craniopharyngiomas: long-term analysis of tumor control and morbidity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Varlotto, John M.; Flickinger, John C.; Kondziolka, Douglas; Lunsford, L.D.; Deutsch, Melvin

2002-01-01

Purpose: To delineate the long-term control and morbidity with external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) of craniopharyngiomas. Methods and Materials: Between 1971 and 1992, 24 craniopharyngioma patients underwent EBRT at the University of Pittsburgh. Most (19 of 24) were treated within 1-3 months after subtotal resection. The other prior surgical procedures were biopsy (n = 2) and gross total resection (n = 1); 2 patients did not undergo any surgical procedure. The median follow-up was 12.1 years. The median patient age was 29 years (range 5-69). The total radiation doses varied from 36 to 70 Gy (median 59.75). The normalized total dose (NTD, biologically equivalent dose given in 2 Gy/fraction [α/β ratio = 2]) varied from 28 to 83 Gy (median 55.35). Results: The actuarial survival rate at 10 and 20 years was 100% and 92.3%, respectively. The actuarial local control rate at 10 and 20 years was 89.1% and 54.0%, respectively. No local failures occurred with doses ≥60 Gy (n=12) or NTDs ≥55 Gy. The complication-free survival rate at 10 and 20 years was 80.1% and 72.1%, respectively. No complications were noted with an NTD of ≤55 Gy. The actuarial survival free from any adverse outcome (recurrence or complication) was 70.1% and 31.8% at 10 and 20 years, respectively. The adverse outcome-free survival appeared optimized (at 73%) with an NTD of 55-63 Gy. Multivariate analysis found that tumor control correlated significantly with the total dose (p=0.02), treatment complications with NTD (p=0.008), and adverse outcome with hypopituitarism on presentation (p=0.03). Conclusion: We recommend treating craniopharyngioma with 1.6-1.7-Gy dose fractions to 60 Gy to optimize outcome from EBRT

Predicting child maltreatment: A meta-analysis of the predictive validity of risk assessment instruments.

Science.gov (United States)

van der Put, Claudia E; Assink, Mark; Boekhout van Solinge, Noëlle F

2017-11-01

Risk assessment is crucial in preventing child maltreatment since it can identify high-risk cases in need of child protection intervention. Despite widespread use of risk assessment instruments in child welfare, it is unknown how well these instruments predict maltreatment and what instrument characteristics are associated with higher levels of predictive validity. Therefore, a multilevel meta-analysis was conducted to examine the predictive accuracy of (characteristics of) risk assessment instruments. A literature search yielded 30 independent studies (N=87,329) examining the predictive validity of 27 different risk assessment instruments. From these studies, 67 effect sizes could be extracted. Overall, a medium significant effect was found (AUC=0.681), indicating a moderate predictive accuracy. Moderator analyses revealed that onset of maltreatment can be better predicted than recurrence of maltreatment, which is a promising finding for early detection and prevention of child maltreatment. In addition, actuarial instruments were found to outperform clinical instruments. To bring risk and needs assessment in child welfare to a higher level, actuarial instruments should be further developed and strengthened by distinguishing risk assessment from needs assessment and by integrating risk assessment with case management. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

42 CFR 422.254 - Submission of bids.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... principles. (i) A qualified actuary must certify the plan's actuarial valuation (which may be prepared by others under his or her direction or review). (ii) To be deemed a qualified actuary, the actuary must be a member of the American Academy of Actuaries. (iii) Applicants may use qualified outside actuaries...

Optimal Cost Avoidance Investment and Pricing Strategies for Performance-Based Post-Production Service Contracts

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-30

a BS degree in Mathematics and an MS degree in Statistics and Financial and Actuarial Mathematics from Kiev National Taras Shevchenko University...degrees from Rutgers University in Industrial Engineering (PhD and MS) and Statistics (MS) and from Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico in Actuarial ...Science. His research efforts focus on developing mathematical models for the analysis, computation, and optimization of system performance with

Improving Deployment-Related Primary Care Provider Assessments of PTSD and Mental Health Conditions

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-01

Meehl, P. E. (1989). Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science , 243. 1668- 1674. Diggle, P., Heagerty, P., Liang, K.-Y., & Zeger, S. L. (2002...review. Bmc Health Services Research, 8, 10. doi: 17910.1186/1472-6963-8-179 Cohen, J. (1988). Statistical power analysis for the behavioral sciences ...of information they are presented with. Meehl (1954) was the first to make a distinction between clinical and actuarial (also known as statistical

20 CFR 901.70 - Records.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... Joint Board for the Enrollment of Actuaries a roster of all persons enrolled to perform actuarial... applicable disclosure and privacy statutes. (b) Disciplinary procedures. A request by an enrolled actuary...

Propuesta de formulación financiero-actuarial de un seguro de dependencia y acercamiento a una aplicación práctica

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mª Manuela Segovia

2005-01-01

Full Text Available En los países industrializados, convergen dos fenómenos demográficos, la longevidad y la escasa natalidad, que provocan un envejecimiento de la población y con ello una serie de procesos sociales que son necesarios atender. Uno de ellos, es la cobertura de la dependencia de las personas mayores, entendiendo por dependencia, la necesidad de ayuda para realizar las tareas básicas de la vida diaria. España se encuentra en la actualidad en plena discusión parlamentaria para regular mediante ley la dependencia y cubrir el avance de este problema que en los próximos años se verá agravado por nuestra evolución demográfica y social. Esta ley pretende establecer las bases para su atención mediante un seguro de dependencia, bien de cobertura pública por parte del Estado o bien por aseguradoras privadas. El trabajo presentado en este congreso forma parte de un estudio amplio sobre la dependencia en España y abordará una aproximación a la formulación actuarial de un seguro de dependencia partiendo del uso de cadenas de Markov para un modelo de múltiples estados, y un acercamiento a la aplicación práctica mediante el análisis de datos sobre discapacidad de nuestro país.

Megavoltage external beam irradiation of craniopharyngiomas: Analysis of tumor control and morbidity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flickinger, J.C.; Lunsford, L.D.; Singer, J.; Cano, E.R.; Deutsch, M.

1990-01-01

From 1971 to 1985, 21 patients received megavoltage external beam radiation therapy at the University of Pittsburgh for control of craniopharyngioma. Minimum tumor doses prescribed to the 95% isodose volume ranged between 51.3 to 70.0 Gy. Median total dose was 60.00 Gy and median dose per fraction was 1.83 Gy. Three deaths occurred from intercurrent disease and no deaths from tumor progression. Actuarial overall survival was 89% and 82% at 5 and 10 years. Actuarial local control was 95% at 5 and 10 years. Radiation related complications included one patient with optic neuropathy, one with brain necrosis, and one that developed optic neuropathy followed by brain necrosis. The high dose group of patients who received a NSD or Neuret equivalent of greater than 60 Gy at 1.8 Gy per fraction had a significantly greater risk of radiation complications (p = .024). The actuarial risk at 5 years for optic neuropathy was 30% and brain necrosis was 12.5% in the high dose group. Tumor control in the high dose group was not shown to be significantly better. Any possible benefit in tumor control in treating patients with craniopharyngioma with doses above 60 Gy at 1.8 Gy per fraction appears to be offset by the increased risk of radiation injury

42 CFR 423.884 - Requirements for qualified retiree prescription drug plans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... actuary who is a member of the American Academy of Actuaries. Applicants may use qualified outside actuaries, including (but not limited to) actuaries employed by the plan administrator or an insurer providing benefits under the plan. If an applicant uses an outside actuary, the attestation can be submitted...

A review and meta-analysis of the patient factors associated with psychiatric in-patient aggression.

Science.gov (United States)

Dack, C; Ross, J; Papadopoulos, C; Stewart, D; Bowers, L

2013-04-01

To combine the results of earlier comparison studies of in-patient aggression to quantitatively assess the strength of the association between patient factors and i) aggressive behaviour,ii) repetitive aggressive behaviour. A systematic review and meta-analysis of empirical articles and reports of comparison studies of aggression and non-aggression within adult psychiatric in-patient settings. Factors that were significantly associated with in-patient aggression included being younger, male, involuntary admissions, not being married, a diagnosis of schizophrenia, a greater number of previous admissions, a history of violence, a history of self-destructive behaviour and a history of substance abuse. The only factors associated with repeated in-patient aggression were not being male, a history of violence and a history of substance abuse. By comparing aggressive with non-aggressive patients, important differences between the two populations may be highlighted. These differences may help staff improve predictions of which patients might become aggressive and enable steps to be taken to reduce an aggressive incident occurring using actuarial judgements. However, the associations found between these actuarial factors and aggression were small. It is therefore important for staff to consider dynamic factors such as a patient's current state and the context to reduce in-patient aggression. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

Risk-Adjusted Analysis of Relevant Outcome Drivers for Patients after More Than Two Kidney Transplants

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Lampros Kousoulas

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Renal transplantation is the treatment of choice for patients suffering end-stage renal disease, but as the long-term renal allograft survival is limited, most transplant recipients will face graft loss and will be considered for a retransplantation. The goal of this study was to evaluate the patient and graft survival of the 61 renal transplant recipients after second or subsequent renal transplantation, transplanted in our institution between 1990 and 2010, and to identify risk factors related to inferior outcomes. Actuarial patient survival was 98.3%, 94.8%, and 88.2% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Actuarial graft survival was 86.8%, 80%, and 78.1% after one, three, and five years, respectively. Risk-adjusted analysis revealed that only age at the time of last transplantation had a significant influence on patient survival, whereas graft survival was influenced by multiple immunological and surgical factors, such as the number of HLA mismatches, the type of immunosuppression, the number of surgical complications, need of reoperation, primary graft nonfunction, and acute rejection episodes. In conclusion, third and subsequent renal transplantation constitute a valid therapeutic option, but inferior outcomes should be expected among elderly patients, hyperimmunized recipients, and recipients with multiple operations at the site of last renal transplantation.

75 FR 35093 - Civil Service Retirement System; Present Value Factors

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-21

... present value factors to changes in demographic factors adopted by the Board of Actuaries of the Civil... actuarial assumptions and data to the Board of Actuaries, care of Gregory Kissel, Actuary, Office of... 1986, Public Law 99- 335, based on changed demographic factors adopted by the Board of Actuaries of the...

77 FR 2761 - Exemptions From Certain Prohibited Transaction Restrictions

Science.gov (United States)

2012-01-19

... by the Plan's actuary (the Actuary), without taking into account any unsold Stock as of April 1, 2012... target attainment percentage, the Actuary will not count as a Plan asset any Stock that has not been... requires that an actuarial review of reserves be conducted annually by an independent firm of actuaries and...

Effectiveness of brachytherapy in treating carcinoma of the vulva

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pohar, Surjeet; Hoffstetter, Sylvette; Peiffert, Didier; Luporsi, Elisabeth; Pernot, Monique

1995-01-01

Purpose: Radical radiotherapeutic management of vulvar cancer often incorporates brachytherapy as a portion of the treatment regimen. However, few studies using this modality alone to manage vulvar cancer have been published. Methods and Materials: Thirty four patients were treated with iridium-192 ( 192 Ir) brachytherapy for vulvar cancer between 1975 and 1993 at Centre Alexis Vautrin. Twenty-one patients were treated at first presentation when surgery was contraindicated or declined. Of these patients, 12 had International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics Classification Stage III or IV disease, 8 were Stage II, 1 was Stage I, and 1 was Stage 0. Thirteen patients were treated for recurrent disease. Paris system rules for implantation and dose prescription were followed. The median reference dose was 60 Gy (range 53 to 88 Gy). At the time of analysis, 10 of 34 patients were alive. Median follow-up in these 10 patients was 31 months (range: 21 months to 107 months). Fourteen of the 24 deaths were from causes other than vulvar cancer. Results: Kaplan-Meier actuarial 5-year local control was 47% (95% confidence interval (CI) = 23 to 73%) and 5-year actuarial loco-regional control was 45% (95% CI = 21 to 70%). Kaplan-Meier actuarial 5-year disease-specific survival was 56% (95% CI = 33 to 76%) and actuarial 5-year survival was 29% (95% CI = 15 to 49%). Median time to death was 14 months. Subset analysis revealed a higher actuarial 5-year local control in patients treated at first presentation than those treated for recurrence (80 vs. 19%, log rank, p = 0.04). Similarly, actuarial 5-year loco-regional control was higher in patients treated at first presentation (80 vs. 16%, log rank, p 0.01). The two groups did not differ significantly in disease-specific or overall survival. The actuarial 5-year disease specific survival of 56% is somewhat less than the expected 5-year disease-specific survival after surgery in a group having a similar proportion of early stage

29 CFR 2520.101-6 - Multiemployer pension plan information made available on request.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... “periodic actuarial report” means any— (i) Actuarial report prepared by an actuary of the plan and received... plan from an actuary of the plan that depicts alternative funding scenarios based on a range of...

CBR-D Tactical Decision Aid (DECAID) Identification and Analysis of Predictive Human Performance Models and Data Bases for Use in a Commander’s CBR-D Decision Aid (DECAID)

Science.gov (United States)

1988-10-15

infrequent and this makes it difficult to *conduct experiments or simulations to gather actuarial data. Unless one can gather large volumes of data, it is...probabilities. Since the validation of such estimates relies upon actuarial data (the complexities of which have been noted earlier), it is not clear that...Schaefer. Proceedings Second Timne Study and Methods Conference. SAM- ASME . Now York, April. 1947 Methods-tanm 1948 Methods-Time .Weasurement MWethods.Tbhe

Adjuvant postoperative radiation therapy for resectable rectal cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Minsky, B.D.; Cohen, A.M.; Enker, W.E.; Kelsen, D.; Kemeny, N.; Sigurdson, E.

1991-01-01

Following potentially curative surgery for resectable adenocarcinoma of the rectum, the incidence of local failure is 15% to 35% in stages T 3 N 0 and T 1 N 1-2 and 45% to 65% in stages T 4 N 0 , T 3 N 1-2 , and T 4 N 1-2 . In order to determine the impact of pelvic radiation therapy±chemotherapy on local failure and survival, we present a prospective analysis of our results of 25 patients treated with this approach. The median follow-up was 30 months (range: 10 to 48 months). For the total patients group the 3-year actuarial survival was 74%. In order to more accurately analyze the patterns of failure, actuarial calculations were performed. The actuarial incidence of local failure as a component of failure was 17%. For patients with node positive disesse (T 1-4 N 1-2 ), the overall survival was 80%, and the actuarial incidence of local failure as a component of failure was 15%. Complications were acceptable and the incidence of small bowel obstruction requiring surgery was 8%. (author)

Examining a Terrorist Network Using Contingency Table Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-01

Mathematics and Statistics, with a minor in Actuarial Science. This is my second year as a summer student at the U.S. Army Research Laboratory (ARL...After graduation, I plan on either attending graduate school to concentrate in applied statistics or becoming a mathematical statistician for the

Radiotherapy for stage I Hodgkin's disease: 20 years experience at St Bartholomew's Hospital

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ganesan, T.S.; Wrigley, P.F.M.; Murray, P.A.

1990-01-01

One hundred and one consecutive patients with newly diagnosed stage I Hodgkin's disease (HD) received treatment at St Bartholomew's Hospital, between 1968 and 1987, with a median follow-up of 12 years. Actuarial analysis predicts 78% to be alive and without relapse of Hodgkin's disease at 15 years. Ninety evaluable patients received either mantle or inverted 'Y' radiotherapy. Histology at presentation was nodular sclerosing (39), lymphocytic predominant (27) or mixed cellularity (24). The presenting site was neck (78), axilla (6) groin (4) and mediastinum (2). Complete remission was achieved in all evaluable patients, the actuarial proportion in remission being 75% at 15 years. Factors predictive of a prolonged remission were pathological staging versus clinical staging and lymph node size < 3 cm. Actuarial overall survival in these 90 patients was 75% at 15 years. Relapse of HD has occurred in 18 patients. Second remission was achieved in 15/18. The actuarial rate of second remission and survival was 40% at 10 years. Sixteen patients have died, 7 of Hodgkin's disease, 7 of unrelated causes and 2 of second malignancy. A further 3 patients who developed second malignancy are still alive. At 15 years the actuarial mortality related to HD was 12%. These results confirm the importance of long follow up to assess the efficacy of primary therapy. (author)

20 CFR 901.12 - Eligibility for enrollment of individuals applying for enrollment before January 1, 1976.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... course of study in which the major area of concentration was actuarial science, or (2) Received a... THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE... months of responsible pension actuarial experience, or (2) A minimum of 60 months of responsible...

42 CFR 423.265 - Submission of bids and related information.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

... guidelines based on generally accepted actuarial principles. A qualified actuary must certify the plan's... member of the American Academy of Actuaries to be deemed qualified. Applicants may use qualified outside actuaries to prepare their bids. (d) Specific requirements for bids. The bid and supplemental information...

20 CFR 901.34 - Conferences.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

...' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... § 901.34 Conferences. (a) In general. The Executive Director may confer with an enrolled actuary... of the actuary or the Executive Director. (b) Voluntary suspension or termination of enrollment. An...

75 FR 74021 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committees

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-30

... of Defense from among qualified professional actuaries who are members of the Society of Actuaries...-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries (hereafter referred to as the ``Board''). The Board is a... statements to the Department of Defense Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries' membership...

20 CFR 901.11 - Enrollment procedures.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... Columbia responsible for the issuance of a license in the field of actuarial science, insurance, accounting... ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME SECURITY ACT OF 1974 Enrollment of Actuaries § 901... enrollment to perform actuarial services under the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974, each...

78 FR 43942 - Submission of Information Collection for OMB Review; Comment Request; Data To Study Multiemployer...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-07-22

... INFORMATION: The Pension Protection Act of 2006 (Pub. L. 109-280) (PPA) requires the actuary of a... information (which are routinely provided to plan actuaries): The most recent actuarial valuation report. The most recent cash flow projections that the plan actuary developed in connection with the plan's...

The dimensionality of professional commitment

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jeffrey J. Bagraim

2003-10-01

Full Text Available This paper examines the dimensionality of professional commitment amongst a sample of 240 South African actuaries. Data were obtained, via a mailed questionnaire, from members of the South African Actuarial Society employed in the financial services industry. Statistical analysis conducted on the data showed that the 3-component model first proposed by Meyer, Allen and Smith (1993 is appropriate for understanding professional commitment amongst South African professionals. The analysis also showed that South African actuaries are highly committed to their profession. Opsomming Hierdie artikel ondersoek die dimensionaliteit van professionele toewyding by ‘n steekproef van 240 Suid-Afrikaanse aktuarisse. Die data is verkry deur ‘n posvraelys aan lede van die Suid-Afrikaanse Aktuariële Vereniging wat in die finansiële dienstesektor werksaam was. Statistiese ontledings wat uitgevoer is op die data dui aan dat die driekomponentmodel, aanvanklik voorgestel deur Meyer, Allen en Smith (1993, geskik is om professionele toewyding by Suid-Afrikaanse beroepslui te verstaan. Die ontleding dui verder aan dat Suid-Afrikaanse aktuarisse hoogs toegewyd is aan hulle professie.

Analysis of dose volume histogram parameters to estimate late bladder and rectum complications after high-dose (70-78 Gy) conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Boersma, L.J.; Brink, M. van den; Bruce, A.; Gras, L.; Velde, A. te; Lebesque, J.V.

1997-01-01

Purpose: To investigate whether Dose Volume Histogram (DVH) parameters can be used to identify risk groups for developing late gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) complications after conformal radiotherapy for prostate cancer, and to examine the effect of using different morbidity scoring systems on the results of these analyses. Materials and Methods: DVH parameters were analyzed for 130 patients with localized prostate cancer, treated with conformal radiotherapy in a dose-escalating protocol (70-78 Gy, 2 Gy per fraction). The incidence of late (> 6 months) GI and GU complications was scored based on questionnaires and classified using the RTOG/EORTC and the SOMA/LENT scoring system. Moreover, patients were classified as being a rectal bleeder or no rectal bleeder and a distinction was made between non-severe and severe (requiring one or more laser treatments) rectal bleeding. The median follow-up time was 22 months. It was investigated whether the relative and absolute rectal wall volumes, irradiated to various dose levels (≥ 60 Gy, ≥ 65 Gy, ≥ 70 Gy and ≥ 75 Gy) were correlated with the observed actuarial incidences of GI complications. First, the analysis was performed using volume as a continuous variable. Subsequently, for each dose level in the DVH the rectal wall volumes were dichotomized using different volumes as cut-off levels. Twenty cut-off levels were tested on their ability to discriminate between high and low risk for developing GI complications (Fig.). The relationship between bladder wall volumes irradiated to various dose levels and observed actuarial GU complications was investigated using the absolute bladder wall volumes, measured as a continuous variable. For both GI and GU complications, the role of the prescribed radiation dose and the maximum radiation dose in the rectal and bladder wall was analyzed as well. Results: None of the DVH parameters of the rectal wall was significantly correlated with the actuarial incidences of

75 FR 9334 - Multiemployer Pension Plan Information Made Available on Request

Science.gov (United States)

2010-03-02

... regulation limit disclosure under paragraph (c)(1)(i) to reports that actuaries produce at regularly... report'' means any actuarial reports prepared by an actuary of the plan and received by the plan at... plan from an actuary of the plan that depict alternative funding scenarios based on a range of...

77 FR 22293 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committees

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-13

... it is renewing the charter for the Department of Defense Board of Actuaries (hereafter referred to as... professional actuaries who are members of the Society of Actuaries. Board members shall be appointed by the... Chief Actuary shall serve as a non-voting advisor and the Executive Secretary for the Board. Each Board...

32 CFR 48.102 - Definitions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... described in paragraphs (d) and (e) of this section. (m) The term Board of Actuaries means the Government Actuary in the Department of the Treasury, the Chief Actuary of the Social Security Administration, and a member of the Society of Actuaries appointed by the President to advise the Secretary of Defense on the...

20 CFR 901.53 - Notice of suspension, termination or resignation of enrollment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL SERVICES UNDER THE EMPLOYEE RETIREMENT INCOME... enrollment of an actuary, the Executive Director shall give notice thereof to appropriate officers and...

A randomized feasibility study evaluating the effect of radiotherapy alone or combined with 5-fluorouracil in the treatment of locally recurrent or inoperable colorectal carcinoma

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Overgaard, M; Bertelsen, K; Dalmark, M

1993-01-01

The effect of radiotherapy alone or given simultaneously with 5-FU in the treatment of locally recurrent or inoperable colorectal carcinoma was investigated in a randomized feasibility trial. Twenty-nine patients were randomized to radiotherapy alone (50 Gy/5 weeks + 10-20 Gy boost), and 30....... The 3-year actuarial survival rate was 9% (median 12 months). Only patients who achieved CR became long-time survivors (63% 3-year actuarial survival). Similarly, performance status had a strong association with survival. Multivariate analysis showed complete response and high performance status...

Analysis of the same day of the week increases in peak electricity ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

in predicting the probability of exceedance (POE) levels of the same day of the ... ∗Department of Mathematical Statistics and Actuarial Science, University of the ... summary of the demand indices for each day of the week is shown in Table 1 ...

77 FR 75416 - Renewal of Department of Defense Federal Advisory Committees

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-20

... among qualified professional actuaries who are members of the Society of Actuaries. The Board members... Department of Defense Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries (``the Board''). The Board is...

29 CFR 4007.8 - Late payment penalty charges.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... actuary to be a reasonable estimate that takes into account the most current data available to the enrolled actuary and that has been determined in accordance with generally accepted actuarial principles...

78 FR 26090 - Proposed Submission of Information Collection for OMB Review; Comment Request; Data to Study...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-05-03

... INFORMATION: The Pension Protection Act of 2006 (Pub. L. 109-280) (PPA) requires the actuary of a... actuarial valuation report. The most recent cash flow projections that the plan actuary developed in...

Surplus analysis of Sparre Andersen insurance risk processes

CERN Document Server

Willmot, Gordon E

2017-01-01

This carefully written monograph covers the Sparre Andersen process in an actuarial context using the renewal process as the model for claim counts. A unified reference on Sparre Andersen (renewal risk) processes is included, often missing from existing literature. The authors explore recent results and analyse various risk theoretic quantities associated with the event of ruin, including the time of ruin and the deficit of ruin. Particular attention is given to the explicit identification of defective renewal equation components, which are needed to analyse various risk theoretic quantities and are also relevant in other subject areas of applied probability such as dams and storage processes, as well as queuing theory. Aimed at researchers interested in risk/ruin theory and related areas, this work will also appeal to graduate students in classical and modern risk theory and Gerber-Shiu analysis.

Behavioral-Based Predictors of Workplace Violence in the Army STARRS

Science.gov (United States)

2014-10-01

Dawes RM, Faust D, Meehl PE. Clinical versus actuarial judgment. Science . 1989;243(4899): 1668-1674. 46. Grove WM, Zald DH, Lebow BS, Snitz BE, Nelson...develop an actuarial risk algorithm predicting suicide in the 12 months after US Army soldier inpatient treatment of a psychiatric disorder to target...generate an actuarial post- hospitalization suicide risk algorithm. Previous research has revealed that actuarial suicide prediction is much more

Skull base chordomas: analysis of dose-response characteristics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Niemierko, Andrzej; Terahara, Atsuro; Goitein, Michael

1997-01-01

Objective: To extract dose-response characteristics from dose-volume histograms and corresponding actuarial survival statistics for 115 patients with skull base chordomas. Materials and Methods: We analyzed data for 115 patients with skull base chordoma treated with combined photon and proton conformal radiotherapy to doses in the range 66.6Gy - 79.2Gy. Data set for each patient included gender, histology, age, tumor volume, prescribed dose, overall treatment time, time to recurrence or time to last observation, target dose-volume histogram, and several dosimetric parameters (minimum/mean/median/maximum target dose, percent of the target volume receiving the prescribed dose, dose to 90% of the target volume, and the Equivalent Uniform Dose (EUD). Data were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier survivor function estimate, the proportional hazards (Cox) model, and parametric modeling of the actuarial probability of recurrence. Parameters of dose-response characteristics were obtained using the maximum likelihood method. Results: Local failure developed in 42 (36%) of patients, with actuarial local control rates at 5 years of 59.2%. The proportional hazards model revealed significant dependence of gender on the probability of recurrence, with female patients having significantly poorer prognosis (hazard ratio of 2.3 with the p value of 0.008). The Wilcoxon and the log-rank tests of the corresponding Kaplan-Meier recurrence-free survival curves confirmed statistical significance of this effect. The Cox model with stratification by gender showed significance of tumor volume (p=0.01), the minimum target dose (p=0.02), and the EUD (p=0.02). Other parameters were not significant at the α level of significance of 0.05, including the prescribed dose (p=0.21). Parametric analysis using a combined model of tumor control probability (to account for non-uniformity of target dose distribution) and the Weibull failure time model (to account for censoring) allowed us to estimate

The multiple decrement life table: a unifying framework for cause-of-death analysis in ecology.

Science.gov (United States)

Carey, James R

1989-01-01

The multiple decrement life table is used widely in the human actuarial literature and provides statistical expressions for mortality in three different forms: i) the life table from all causes-of-death combined; ii) the life table disaggregated into selected cause-of-death categories; and iii) the life table with particular causes and combinations of causes eliminated. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the multiple decrement life table to the ecological literature by applying the methods to published death-by-cause information on Rhagoletis pomonella. Interrelations between the current approach and conventional tools used in basic and applied ecology are discussed including the conventional life table, Key Factor Analysis and Abbott's Correction used in toxicological bioassay.

Fiscal Year 2014: Military Retirement Fund Audited Financial Report

Science.gov (United States)

2014-11-07

funds to finance, on an actuarial basis, the liabilities of DoD under military retirement and survivor benefit programs. Within DoD, the...accounting, investing, payment of benefits, and reporting of the MRF. The DoD Office of the Actuary (OACT) within OUSD(P&R) calculates the actuarial ...Secretary of Defense-appointed DoD Board of Actuaries (“Board”). The Board is required to review valuations of the MRS, determine the method of

Dose-volume analysis of hypothyroidism in patients irradiated to the neck

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Te, Vuong; Liu, Mitchell C.C.; Parker, William; Curtin-Savard, Arthur J.; Clark, Brenda

1997-01-01

Purpose: To determine if the incidence of hypothyroidism in patients who have received radiation therapy to the neck region has any relationship with the total dose to the thyroid and volume of thyroid irradiation. Methods and Materials: From 1988 to 1996, TSH levels were measured at regular intervals of every 3 to 6 months in 528 patients with head and neck cancers or lymphomas (Hodgkin and non-Hodgkin) who had received radiation therapy to the neck region. Hypothyroidism was defined by TSH of ≥ 5 (normal range: 0.5 - 4mU/L). Medical charts, radiotherapy charts, treatment planning films, dosimetry and CT scans/MRI were reviewed. Thyroid volume was determined utilizing treatment planning films and CT scans/MRI. Four hundred and six patients had normal TSH prior to radiation and sufficient information to be eligible for analysis. There were 264 (65%) male and 142 (35%) female, median age was 59 yr (range: 12 - 85). Median follow-up was 39.5 months (range: 1 - 289 months). Results: Out of the 406 eligible patients, 152 (37%) had developed hypothyroidism. The actuarial incidence of hypothyroidism at 1 yr, 3 yr and 5 yr are 9.1%, 29% and 38.5%, respectively. Analysis of volume effect and dose effect are as follows: When the radiation dose to the thyroid and the volume of thyroid irradiated are analyzed together, the group of patients who received ≥ 60Gy to half of thyroid or received ≥ 30Gy to the whole thyroid has increased risk of developing hypothyroidism as compared to those receiving <60Gy to half the thyroid or <30Gy to the whole thyroid (p=.0001). Conclusions: The actuarial incidence of hypothyroidism at 5 year in patients who had received radiation to the neck is 38.5%. Patients who received ≥ 60Gy to half the thyroid or received ≥ 30Gy to the whole thyroid are at higher risk of developing hyperthyroidism

Radiotherapy Results of Brain Astrocytoma and Glioblastoma Multiforme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Doo Ho; Kim, Il Han; Ha, Sung Whan; Chi, Je Geun

1988-01-01

A retrospective analysis was performed on 49 patients with astrocytoma of glioblastoma multiforme of brain who received postoperative radiotherapy in the period between February 1979 and December 1985. Fourteen patients had grade I astrocytoma, 11 patients grade II, 14 patients grade III, and 10 patients glioblastoma multiforme. Three year actuarial survival rates were 85.7%, 44.6% and 23.1% for grade I, II, and III astrocytomas, respectively. One and 2 year actuarial survival rates for patients with glioblastoma multiforme were 54.5% and 27.3%, respectively. Histologic grade, age, extent of operation and tumor location were revealed to be prognosticators

Statistical methods with applications to demography and life insurance

CERN Document Server

Khmaladze, Estáte V

2013-01-01

Suitable for statisticians, mathematicians, actuaries, and students interested in the problems of insurance and analysis of lifetimes, Statistical Methods with Applications to Demography and Life Insurance presents contemporary statistical techniques for analyzing life distributions and life insurance problems. It not only contains traditional material but also incorporates new problems and techniques not discussed in existing actuarial literature. The book mainly focuses on the analysis of an individual life and describes statistical methods based on empirical and related processes. Coverage ranges from analyzing the tails of distributions of lifetimes to modeling population dynamics with migrations. To help readers understand the technical points, the text covers topics such as the Stieltjes, Wiener, and Itô integrals. It also introduces other themes of interest in demography, including mixtures of distributions, analysis of longevity and extreme value theory, and the age structure of a population. In addi...

20 CFR 901.13 - Eligibility for enrollment of individuals applying for enrollment on or after January 1, 1976.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... actuarial mathematics and methodology by one of the following: (1) Joint Board basic examination. Successful... basic actuarial mathematics and methodology including compound interest, principles of life... major area of concentration was actuarial mathematics, or (ii) Which included at least as many semester...

78 FR 34671 - Invitation for Membership on Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-10

... by successful completion of Joint Board examinations in basic actuarial mathematics and methodology and in actuarial mathematics and methodology relating to pension plans qualifying under ERISA. The... (ERISA), is responsible for the enrollment of individuals who wish to perform actuarial services under...

20 CFR 901.43 - Administrative Law Judge.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

....43 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE... conduct proceedings upon complaints for the suspension or termination of enrolled actuaries. (b) Powers of... with any suspension or termination proceeding of an enrolled actuary, to do the following: (1...

2018-05-02T20:20:16Z https://www.ajol.info/index.php/index/oai oai ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

While deterioration in these conditions negatively affects demand, globaldevelopments, such as international accounting standards and Solvency II, are creating demand. At the same time, emigration of actuaries and actuarial students creates shortages and a much tighter actuarial resource market. This paper covers the ...

75 FR 16510 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... recommended for inclusion on future Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics, pension law and... closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES: The meeting will be held on.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will...

75 FR 53716 - Invitation for Membership on Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-01

... successful completion of Joint Board examinations in basic actuarial mathematics and methodology and in actuarial mathematics and methodology relating to pension plans qualifying under ERISA. The Joint Board, the... Act of 1974 (ERISA), is responsible for the enrollment of individuals who wish to perform actuarial...

78 FR 57174 - Advisory Committee Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-17

... recommended for inclusion on future Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics, pension law and... Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES: The meeting will be held on October 18, 2013, from 8.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will...

78 FR 19008 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2013-03-28

... inclusion on future Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics, pension law and methodology referred... closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES: The meeting will be held on.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will...

75 FR 59292 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-27

... inclusion on future Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics, pension law and methodology referred... closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES: The meeting will be held on... INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will meet at...

29 CFR 4041.45 - Distress termination notice.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

..., Single-Employer Plan Termination, with Schedule EA-D, Distress Termination Enrolled Actuary Certification... guaranteed benefits. Unless the enrolled actuary certifies, in the Schedule EA-D filed in accordance with... benefits or benefit liabilities. If the enrolled actuary certifies that the plan is sufficient either for...

20 CFR 901.33 - Initiation of proceeding.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

....33 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE... believe that an enrolled actuary has violated any provision of the laws or regulations governing... the enrolled actuary that, in the opinion of the Executive Director, his/her conduct is in violation...

Introduction to modeling and analysis of stochastic systems

CERN Document Server

Kulkarni, V G

2011-01-01

This is an introductory-level text on stochastic modeling. It is suited for undergraduate students in engineering, operations research, statistics, mathematics, actuarial science, business management, computer science, and public policy. It employs a large number of examples to teach the students to use stochastic models of real-life systems to predict their performance, and use this analysis to design better systems. The book is devoted to the study of important classes of stochastic processes: discrete and continuous time Markov processes, Poisson processes, renewal and regenerative processes, semi-Markov processes, queueing models, and diffusion processes. The book systematically studies the short-term and the long-term behavior, cost/reward models, and first passage times. All the material is illustrated with many examples, and case studies. The book provides a concise review of probability in the appendix. The book emphasizes numerical answers to the problems. A collection of MATLAB programs to accompany...

77 FR 71828 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-12-04

... recommended for inclusion on future Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics and methodology referred... meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations (portions of which will be open to the public... Committee on Actuarial Examinations will meet at the Internal Revenue Service, 1111 Constitution Avenue NW...

75 FR 76486 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-12-08

... that may be recommended for inclusion on future Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics and... meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations (portions of which will be open to the public... the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will meet at the Internal Revenue Service, 1111...

20 CFR 901.44 - Hearings.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Hearings. 901.44 Section 901.44 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS GOVERNING THE PERFORMANCE OF ACTUARIAL... complaint for the suspension or termination of an enrolled actuary. Hearings shall be stenographically...

26 CFR 1.436-1 - Limits on benefits and benefit accruals under single employer defined benefit plans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... contributions under paragraph (f)(2) of this section or pursuant to the enrolled actuary's certification of the... section or pursuant to the enrolled actuary's certification of the adjusted funding target attainment..., 2011, the enrolled actuary for the Plan certifies that the AFTAP for 2011 is 80%. Accordingly...

26 CFR 1.411(d)-3 - Section 411(d)(6) protected benefits.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... reduction are retirement-type benefits. The excess of the actuarial present value of the early retirement benefit using the 3% annual reduction over the actuarial present value of the normal retirement benefit is... is adopted, the actuarial present value of the retained optional form of benefit for the participant...

26 CFR 1.401(a)(9)-6 - Required minimum distributions for defined benefit plans and annuity contracts.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... under the annuity contract. The actuarial present value of any additional benefits described under this... actuarial present value of any additional benefits provided under an annuity contract described in paragraph... beneficiary under the contract and the actuarial present value of the additional benefits is no more than 120...

78 FR 73564 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-06

... Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics and methodology referred to in 29 U.S.C. 1242(a)(1)(B... Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations (portions of which will be open to the public) in Washington.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will...

76 FR 17967 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2011-03-31

... Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics, pension law and methodology referred to in 29 U.S.C... closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES: The meeting will be held on... INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will meet at Mercer...

77 FR 19034 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-03-29

... Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics, pension law and methodology referred to in 29 U.S.C... closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES: The meeting will be held on... INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will meet at...

75 FR 28062 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2010-05-19

... questions which may be recommended for inclusion on future Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics... meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations (a portion of which will be open to the public... the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will meet in at the Internal Revenue Service Building...

76 FR 75912 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-05

... Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics and methodology referred to in 29 U.S.C. 1242(a)(1)(B... Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations (portions of which will be open to the public) in Washington.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will...

5 CFR 841.402 - Definitions.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... the rate, by age, sex, length of service, and whether the employees are eligible for social security... accordance with generally accepted actuarial practice and standards (using dynamic assumptions) and expressed...— Actuary means an associate or fellow in the Society of Actuaries and one who is enrolled under section...

20 CFR 901.30 - Authority to suspend or terminate enrollment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... 20 Employees' Benefits 3 2010-04-01 2010-04-01 false Authority to suspend or terminate enrollment. 901.30 Section 901.30 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS... the enrollment of an enrolled actuary if the Joint Board finds that such enrolled actuary (a) Has...

26 CFR 300.0 - User fees; in general.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... the enrollment of an enrolled agent. (7) Enrolling an enrolled actuary. (8) Renewing the enrollment of an enrolled actuary. (c) Effective/applicability date. This part 300 is applicable March 16, 1995... and renewal of enrollment for enrolled actuaries is applicable January 22, 2008. [T.D. 8589, 60 FR...

Potency after permanent prostate brachytherapy for localized prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Potters, Louis; Torre, Taryn; Fearn, Paul A.; Leibel, Steven A.; Kattan, Michael W.

2001-01-01

Purpose: The evaluation of potency preservation after treatment of localized prostate cancer with transperineal permanent prostate brachytherapy (PPB) and the efficacy of sildenafil were studied. Methods and Materials: This study comprised 482 patients who were able to maintain an erection suitable for intercourse before treatment from a cohort of 1166 patients with clinically localized prostate cancer treated with PPB. All patients have been followed prospectively, and actuarial analysis was performed to assess potency preservation over time. Patients treated with sildenafil were evaluated as to its efficacy. Results: The median follow-up of this cohort was 34 months (6-92), with a median age of 68 years (47-80). Potency was preserved in 311 of the 482 patients, with a 5-year actuarial potency rate of 52.7%. The 5-year actuarial potency rate for patients treated with PPB as monotherapy was 76%, and, for those treated with combination external beam radiotherapy (EBT) + PPB, 56% (p=0.08). Patients treated with neoadjuvant androgen deprivation (NAAD) + PPB had a 5-year potency rate of 52%, whereas those with combination EBT + PPB + NAAD had a potency rate of 29% (p=0.13). Cox regression analysis identified that pretreatment use of NAAD and patient age predicted for impotence (p=0.0001 and 0.04, respectively). Of 84 patients treated with sildenafil, 52 had a successful outcome (62%). The response to sildenafil was significantly better in those patients not treated with NAAD (p=0.04). Conclusions: The actuarial potency rates at 5 years for patients treated with PPB are lower than generally acknowledged, except for those patients treated with PPB as monotherapy. Patients who received sildenafil exhibited improved potency in a majority of cases

Local Failure in Resected N1 Lung Cancer: Implications for Adjuvant Therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Higgins, Kristin A.; Chino, Junzo P.; Berry, Mark; Ready, Neal; Boyd, Jessamy; Yoo, David S.; Kelsey, Chris R.

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate actuarial rates of local failure in patients with pathologic N1 non–small-cell lung cancer and to identify clinical and pathologic factors associated with an increased risk of local failure after resection. Methods and Materials: All patients who underwent surgery for non–small-cell lung cancer with pathologically confirmed N1 disease at Duke University Medical Center from 1995–2008 were identified. Patients receiving any preoperative therapy or postoperative radiotherapy or with positive surgical margins were excluded. Local failure was defined as disease recurrence within the ipsilateral hilum, mediastinum, or bronchial stump/staple line. Actuarial rates of local failure were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox multivariate analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with a higher risk of local recurrence. Results: Among 1,559 patients who underwent surgery during the time interval, 198 met the inclusion criteria. Of these patients, 50 (25%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. Actuarial (5-year) rates of local failure, distant failure, and overall survival were 40%, 55%, and 33%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, factors associated with an increased risk of local failure included a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery approach (hazard ratio [HR], 2.5; p = 0.01), visceral pleural invasion (HR, 2.1; p = 0.04), and increasing number of positive N1 lymph nodes (HR, 1.3 per involved lymph node; p = 0.02). Chemotherapy was associated with a trend toward decreased risk of local failure that was not statistically significant (HR, 0.61; p = 0.2). Conclusions: Actuarial rates of local failure in pN1 disease are high. Further investigation of conformal postoperative radiotherapy may be warranted.

Local Failure in Resected N1 Lung Cancer: Implications for Adjuvant Therapy

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Higgins, Kristin A., E-mail: kristin.higgins@duke.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Chino, Junzo P [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Berry, Mark [Department of Surgery, Division of Cardiovascular and Thoracic Surgery, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Ready, Neal [Department of Medicine, Division of Medical Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States); Boyd, Jessamy [US Oncology, Dallas, TX (United States); Yoo, David S; Kelsey, Chris R [Department of Radiation Oncology, Duke University Medical Center, Durham, NC (United States)

2012-06-01

Purpose: To evaluate actuarial rates of local failure in patients with pathologic N1 non-small-cell lung cancer and to identify clinical and pathologic factors associated with an increased risk of local failure after resection. Methods and Materials: All patients who underwent surgery for non-small-cell lung cancer with pathologically confirmed N1 disease at Duke University Medical Center from 1995-2008 were identified. Patients receiving any preoperative therapy or postoperative radiotherapy or with positive surgical margins were excluded. Local failure was defined as disease recurrence within the ipsilateral hilum, mediastinum, or bronchial stump/staple line. Actuarial rates of local failure were calculated with the Kaplan-Meier method. A Cox multivariate analysis was used to identify factors independently associated with a higher risk of local recurrence. Results: Among 1,559 patients who underwent surgery during the time interval, 198 met the inclusion criteria. Of these patients, 50 (25%) received adjuvant chemotherapy. Actuarial (5-year) rates of local failure, distant failure, and overall survival were 40%, 55%, and 33%, respectively. On multivariate analysis, factors associated with an increased risk of local failure included a video-assisted thoracoscopic surgery approach (hazard ratio [HR], 2.5; p = 0.01), visceral pleural invasion (HR, 2.1; p = 0.04), and increasing number of positive N1 lymph nodes (HR, 1.3 per involved lymph node; p = 0.02). Chemotherapy was associated with a trend toward decreased risk of local failure that was not statistically significant (HR, 0.61; p = 0.2). Conclusions: Actuarial rates of local failure in pN1 disease are high. Further investigation of conformal postoperative radiotherapy may be warranted.

Brachytherapy in the conservative treatment of soft tissue sarcomas extending to neurovascular structures: an analysis of 38 cases

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thomas, L.; Delannes, M.; Stoeckle, E.; Martel, P.; Pigneux, J.; Daly-Schveitzer, N.; Bui, B.N.; Chevreau, C.; Kantor, G.

1996-01-01

To evaluate the tolerance of neurovascular structures to brachytherapy, a retrospective review of our series was undertaken. Between May 1986 and January 1994, 85 patients with soft tissue sarcomas underwent conservative surgery and low-dose rate interstitial irradiation. Thirty-eight patients had tumors extending to neurovascular structures. Brachytherapy was part of initial treatment in 30 patients and was done in 7 cases for recurrent sarcomas. Afterloading catethers for brachytherapy were inserted intraoperatively and placed direct upon or under the neurovascular structures in the tumor bed. A mean dose of 20 Gy was delivered to the target volume. Thirty patients received 45 to 50 Gy of postoperative external irradiation. With a median follow-up of 39 months, the 3-year actuarial survival was 82.9%, the 3-year disease-free survival was 71.9% and the 3-year actuarial local control was 91%. The 3-year actuarial incidence of distant metastase was 28%. Acute side effects occurred in 12 patients requiring conservative surgical procedures in 6 cases. Significant late toxicity occurred in 8 patients : 2 lymphoedemas interfering with normal activity, 1 partial artery stenosis, 5 peripheral neuropathy (2 grade 2, 3 grade 3). Late toxicity has led to significant impairment of mobility in 4 patients. Limb preservation was achieved in every patient, no amputation was required. We conclude that integration of brachytherapy in the conservative treatment of soft tissue sarcomas extending to neurovascular structures can provide excellent local control with an acceptable level of toxicity

76 FR 34750 - Advisory Committee Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-14

... inclusion on future Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics and methodology referred to in 29 U.S... Committee on Actuarial Examinations (a portion of which will be open to the public) in Washington, DC at the... Actuarial Examinations will meet in at the Internal Revenue Service Building, 1111 Constitution Avenue, NW...

77 FR 59979 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-10-01

... actuarial mathematics, pension law and methodology referred to in 29 U.S.C. 1242(a)(1)(B). A determination... closed meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations. DATES: The meeting will be held on... is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will meet at Towers Watson, 800...

78 FR 36575 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2013-06-18

... Joint Board examinations in actuarial mathematics and methodology referred to in 29 U.S.C. 1242(a)(1)(B... meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations (a portion of which will be open to the public...- 2173. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial...

76 FR 8350 - Notice of Federal Advisory Committee Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-14

... federal advisory committee meeting of the DoD Board of Actuaries will take place: DATES: July 14-15, 2011... Office of the Actuary, 4040 N. Fairfax Drive, Suite 308, Arlington, VA 22203. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION... Board of Actuaries meeting or make an oral presentation or submit a written statement for consideration...

78 FR 61191 - Medicare Program; FY 2014 Inpatient Prospective Payment Systems: Changes to Certain Cost...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-10-03

... calculated by the our Office of the Actuary, to determine both the aggregate amount of empirically justified... Office of the Actuary used the March 2013 update of the Medicare Hospital Cost Report Information System..., as these hospitals do not receive a Medicare DSH payment. The CMS Office of the Actuary's final...

29 CFR 4231.9 - Request for compliance determination.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... enrolled actuary based each certification that a plan involved in the merger or transfer satisfied a plan... by an enrolled actuary: (i) A statement that the plan satisfies one of the plan solvency tests set... actuary has determined that benefits under the plan are not reasonably expected to be subject to...

A time series modeling approach in risk appraisal of violent and sexual recidivism.

Science.gov (United States)

Bani-Yaghoub, Majid; Fedoroff, J Paul; Curry, Susan; Amundsen, David E

2010-10-01

For over half a century, various clinical and actuarial methods have been employed to assess the likelihood of violent recidivism. Yet there is a need for new methods that can improve the accuracy of recidivism predictions. This study proposes a new time series modeling approach that generates high levels of predictive accuracy over short and long periods of time. The proposed approach outperformed two widely used actuarial instruments (i.e., the Violence Risk Appraisal Guide and the Sex Offender Risk Appraisal Guide). Furthermore, analysis of temporal risk variations based on specific time series models can add valuable information into risk assessment and management of violent offenders.

New methods applied to the analysis and treatment of ovarian cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Order, S.E.; Rosenshein, N.B.; Klein, J.L.; Lichter, A.S.; Ettinger, D.S.; Dillon, M.B.; Leibel, S.A.

1979-01-01

The development of rigorous staging methods, appreciation of new knowledge concerning ovarian cancer dissemination, and administration of new treatment techniques have been applied to ovarian cancer. The method of staging consists of peritoneal cytology, total abdominal hysterectomy-bilateral salpingo oophorectomy (TAH-BSO), omentectomy, nodal biopsy, diaphragmatic inspection and is coupled with maximal surgical resection. An additional examination being evaluated for usefulness in future staging is intraperitoneal /sup 99m/Tc sulfur colloid scans. Nineteen patients have entered the pilot studies. Sixteen patients (5 Stage 2, 10 Stage 3 micrometastatic, and 1 Stage 4) have been treated with colloidal 32 P, i.p. followed 2 weeks later by split abdominal irradiation (200 rad fractions pelvis-2 hr rest-150 rad upper abdomen) to a total abdominal dose of 3000 rad with a pelvic cone down to 4000 rad. Five of these patients received Phenylalanine mustard (L-PAM) (7 mg/m 2 ) maintenance therapy. The 3 year actuarial survival was 78% and the 3 year disease free actuarial survival 68%. Seven patients were treated with intraperitoneal tumor antisera and 4/7 remain in complete remission as of this writing. The specificity of the antiserum has been demonstrated by immunoelectrophoresis in 4/4 patients, and by live cell fluorescence in 1 patient. Rabbit IgG levels revealed significant increasing titers in 4/6 patients following i.p. antiovarian antiserum. Radiolabeled IgG derived from the antiserum demonstrated tumor localization and correlation with conventional radiograhy and computerized axial tomograhy (CAT) scans in 2 patients studied to date. Biomarker analysis reveals that free secretory protein 6/6, apha globulin 5/6, and CEA (carcinoembryonic antigen) 3/6 were elevated in the 6 patients studied. Two patients whose disease progressed demonstrated elevated levels of all three biomarkers

26 CFR 1.401(a)(4)-4 - Nondiscriminatory availability of benefits, rights, and features.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

...-outs of all terminated employees who have a vested accrued benefit with an actuarial present value less... accrued benefit with an actuarial present value in excess of the specified dollar amount is disregarded in... distribution for employees with a vested accrued benefit having an actuarial present value not in excess of $25...

77 FR 34408 - Meeting of the Advisory Committee; Meeting

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-11

... examinations in actuarial mathematics and methodology referred to in 29 U.S.C. 1242(a)(1)(B) and to review the... meeting of the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations (a portion of which will be open to the public.... SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Notice is hereby given that the Advisory Committee on Actuarial Examinations will...

77 FR 37349 - Amendment of Prohibited Payment Option Under Single-Employer Defined Benefit Plan of Plan Sponsor...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-06-21

... or after the date on which the enrolled actuary of the plan certifies that the adjusted funding... on which the enrolled actuary of the plan certifies that the plan's adjusted funding target... defined in Sec. 1.411(d)-3(g)(4)). First, the enrolled actuary of the plan has certified that the plan's...

29 CFR 4231.8 - Notice of merger or transfer.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

... it is a de minimis transaction as defined in § 4231.7 (and, if so, including an enrolled actuary's... that exists after the transaction, one of the following statements, certified by an enrolled actuary..., indicating which is the applicable test. (ii) A statement of the basis on which the actuary has determined...

20 CFR 901.31 - Grounds for suspension or termination of enrollment.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... enrollment. 901.31 Section 901.31 Employees' Benefits JOINT BOARD FOR THE ENROLLMENT OF ACTUARIES REGULATIONS...) Failure to satisfy requirements for enrollment. The enrollment of an actuary may be terminated if it is found that the actuary did not satisfy the eligibility requirements set forth in §§ 901.12 or 901.13...

Military Retirement: Alternate Final Pay and Cost of Living Indexing

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-01

LIST OF TABLES Table 1.  Military Retirement System Multipliers (from DOD Office of the Actuary , 2012...10  Table 2.  Number of Retirees by Rank (from DOD Office of the Actuary , 2012...Expectancy (from DOD Office of the Actuary , 2012) ..23  Table 5.  HI-3 Valuation in Millions of Dollars

78 FR 34250 - Post-9/11 GI Bill

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2013-06-07

... benefits (TEB); and the DoD Office of the Actuary to perform determinations in support of DoD funding... DoD Education Benefits Fund Board of Actuaries to perform determinations in support of DoD funding... education benefits (TEB); and the DoD Office of the Actuary to perform determinations in support of DoD...

76 FR 8352 - Meeting of a Federal Advisory Committee

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-14

... committee meeting of the DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries will take place: DATES... 22203. FOR FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: Margot Kaplan at the DoD Office of the Actuary, 4040 N. Fairfax... desiring to attend the DoD Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health Care Board of Actuaries meeting or make an oral...

[Long term results of exclusive chemotherapy for glottic squamous cell carcinoma complete clinical responders after induction chemotherapy].

Science.gov (United States)

Vachin, F; Hans, S; Atlan, D; Brasnu, D; Menard, M; Laccourreye, O

2004-06-01

To evaluate the long-term results of exclusive chemotherapy for T1-T3N0M0 glottic squamous cell carcinoma complete clinical responders after induction chemotherapy. Between 1985 and 2000, 69 patients with glottic squamous cell carcinoma complete clinical responders after induction chemotherapy were managed with exclusive chemotherapy at our department. Chemotherapy associated platinum and fluorouracil. This retrospective analysis evaluated actuarial survival, treatment morbidity, oncologic events and laryngeal preservation. Various independent factors were tested for potential correlation with survival and local recurrence. The 5-year Kaplan-Meier actuarial survival, local control, lymph node control estimate were 83,6%, 64,8%, 98,6% respectively. Chemotherapy never resulted in death. The 10-year actuarial metachronous second primary tumors estimate was 32%. The overall laryngeal preservation rate was 98,6%. Altogether our data and the review of the literature suggest that in patients achieving a complete clinical response after and induction based chemotherapy regimen, the completion of an exclusive chemotherapy regimen appears to be a valid alternative to the conventional use of radiotherapy or chemo-radiation protocols.

Neoadjuvant treatment and adjuvant radiotherapy for patients with high risk prostate cancer and radical prostatectomy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Scorticati, Carlos; Aguilar, Jorge A.; Gonzalez Granda, Pablo; Mendez, Fernando; Montiel, Raul; Rege, Eduardo; Alvarez, Patricio; Lopez, Miguel A.; Rizzi, Alfredo; Mazza, Osvaldo

2009-01-01

Introduction and Objectives: To analyze the results of the treatment in patients with cancer of prostate of high risk. Material and Method: Retrospective and observational analysis of 130 patients operated by CAP of high risk (criteria of D'Amico) average 41,48 months, divided in form nonrandomized in three groups 1: radical prostatectomy, 2: neoadjuvant hormonoterapy (BAC) + PR, 3: BAC + PR + x-ray (RT). Statistical analysis: multivaried, test of curved Chi2 and p statistical and of Kaplan Meier. Results: Biochemical relapse 68 patients (52.3%), average 23,37 months. Without differences according to therapeutic modality (p: 0.043). In the multivaried analysis of the 3 factors of presurgical, single risk we found a statistically significant relation in the coexistence of the 3 factors with the presence of positive margin in the PR piece. (p: 0,002). The analysis to make or not, neoadjuvant BAC without significant difference (p: 0,403) evaluating in such the rate of M+, actuarial global survival according to curves of Kaplan Meier to 5 and 10 years (P: 0,5257) and survival 5 actuarial specific cancer to and 10a (P: 0,2165). Conclusions: Without significant differences in: RB, clinical progression, pathological relapse, global and specific survival, rate of positive surgical margins. The 3 criteria of D'Amico were predictive of positive surgical margins and RB, the patients with RB in group 2 presented/displayed greater risk of clinical progression, the PR demonstrated a global survival and specify actuarial to 10 years greater to 50%, considering it therapeutic an option been worth. (authors) [es

77 FR 66915 - Amendment of Prohibited Payment Option Under Single-Employer Defined Benefit Plan of Plan Sponsor...

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-08

... limitation does not apply in a plan year on or after the date on which the enrolled actuary of the plan... after the date within the plan year on which the enrolled actuary of the plan certifies that the plan's... (the applicable amendment date, as defined in Sec. 1.411(d)-3(g)(4)). First, the enrolled actuary of...

Results of conservative treatment with surgery and radiation therapy of 132 non-palpable ductal carcinomas in situ of the breast; Resultats du traitement par chirurgie conservatrice et irradiation de 132 carcinomes canalaires in situ non palpables du sein

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Amalric, R.; Brandone, H.; Dubau, A.; Hans, D.; Brandone, J.M.; Robert, F.; Pollet, J.F.; Amalric, F.; Rouah, Y.; Thomassin, L.; Giraud, D.; Henric, A.; Martin, P.M.; Romain, S. [Academie mediterraneenne d`oncologie clinique, Polyclinique Clairval, 13 - Marseille (France)

1998-01-01

Retrospective analysis of results of treatment of 132 subclinical ductal carcinomas in situ, non-palpable. Patients were treated with limited surgery and 70 Gy radiation therapy (70 Gy). With a median follow-up of 7 years, the total recurrence rate was 6 % and the actuarial rate at 5 years 4 % and at 10 years 13 % at. These have no influence on recurrence on the specific actuarial survival rate which was 100 % at 10 years. In spite of five infiltrating recurrences of seven, no metastasis appeared 48 months after the salvage surgery. The global rate of breast. The global rate of breast preservation was 92 % at 7 years. Therapeutic indications were developed taking into account the present analysis and a literature review (2,338 in situ ductal carcinomas, palpable or not, treated with conservative surgery, with or without adjuvant radio-therapy). (author)

Modeles de Risque et Files d'Attente: La methode de stabilite forte ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Abstract. One of the problems which appear during comprehension and working of the complex systems is the analysis of the stability of their functioning. These last years, the specialists became aware of the importance of the stability analysis in actuarial sciences and in financial mathematics. In this work, we are interested ...

High-dose-rate afterloading brachytherapy in carcinoma of the cervix: an experience of 1992 patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lorvidhaya, Vicharn; Tonusin, Anun; Changwiwit, Witit; Chitapanarux, Imjai; Srisomboon, Jatupol; Wanwilairat, Somsak; Chawapun, Nisa; Sukthomya, Vimol

2000-01-01

Purpose: To report the results of radiation therapy in carcinoma of the cervix treated by external irradiation and high-dose-rate (HDR) intracavitary brachytherapy. Methods and Materials: This is a retrospective analysis of 2063 patients with histologically proven carcinoma of the cervix treated by external irradiation and HDR intracavitary brachytherapy between March 1985-December 1991. The Kaplan-Meier method was used for survival and disease-free survival analysis. Late complications in the bowel and bladder were calculated actuarially. Results: There were 71 patients who did not complete the course of irradiation so only 1992 patients were retrospectively analyzed for survival. There were 2 patients (0.1%) in Stage IA, 211 (10.2%) Stage IB, 225 (10.9%) in Stage IIA, 902 (43.7%) in Stage IIB, 14 (0.7%) in Stage IIIA, 675 (32.7%) in Stage IIIB, 16 (0.8%) in Stage IVA, and 16 (0.8%) in Stage IVB. The median follow-up time was 96 months. The actuarial 5-year disease-free survival rate was 79.5%, 70.0%, 59.4%, 46.1%, 32.3%, 7.8%, and 23.1% for Stage IB, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIIB, IVA, and IVB respectively. The actuarial 5-year disease-free survival rate for Stage IB 1 and IB 2 squamous cell carcinoma was 88.7% and 67.0%. The actuarial 5-year overall survival rate was 86.3%, 81.1%, 73.0%, 50.3%, 47.8%, 7.8%, and 30.8% for Stage IB, IIA, IIB, IIIA, IIIB, IVA, and IVB respectively. Pattern of failure revealed 20.8% local recurrence, 18.7% distant metastases, and 4% in both. The late complication rate Grade 3 and 4 (RTOG) for bowel and bladder combined was 7.0% with 1.9% Grade 4. Conclusion: HDR brachytherapy used in this series produced pelvic control and survival rates comparable to other LDR series

Epithelioid sarcoma: results of conservative surgery and radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Callister, Matthew D.; Ballo, Matthew T. M.D.; Pisters, Peter W.T.; Patel, Shreyaskumar R.; Feig, Barry W.; Pollock, Raphael E.; Benjamin, Robert S.; Zagars, Gunar K

2001-01-01

Purpose: To determine the outcome and prognostic factors for patients with localized epithelioid sarcoma treated with conservative surgery and radiotherapy (RT). Methods and Materials: The medical records of 24 patients with nonmetastatic epithelioid sarcoma treated with conservative surgery and RT were reviewed. Preoperative RT was given to 3 patients (median 46.4 Gy) and postoperative RT to 21 patients (median 64.5 Gy). A local (limb-sparing) surgical procedure was performed in all patients. Results: At a median follow-up of 131 months, 14 patients had relapsed and 13 patients had died. The actuarial overall and disease-free survival rate at 10 years was 50% and 37%, respectively. Local, nodal, and metastatic failure occurred in 7, 4, and 10 patients, respectively, yielding a 10-year actuarial local, nodal, and metastatic control rate of 63%, 81%, and 56%, respectively. Univariate analysis revealed that size ≤5 cm and extremity location were favorable prognostic factors for overall, disease-free, and metastasis-free survival. The actuarial 5-year overall, disease-free, and metastasis-free survival rate was 79% vs. 25% (p=0.002), 51% vs. 13% (p=0.03), and 79% vs. 13% (p 5 cm. The actuarial 5-year overall, disease-free, and metastasis-free survival rate was 77% vs. 39% (p 0.002), 56% vs. 0% (p=0.01), and 78% vs. 17% (p=0.01), respectively, for extremity vs. nonextremity location. Multivariate analysis of the factors correlating with the overall, disease-free, and metastasis-free survival confirmed the favorable prognostic significance of small lesion size. The prognostic significance of extremity location on univariate analysis was explained by an imbalance in the mean tumor sizes. Conclusions: Epithelioid sarcoma is an aggressive soft-tissue sarcoma, with high rates of local and distant relapse. Local control with conservative surgery and RT compares favorably to published surgical series. The poor outcome for tumors ≥5 cm in size emphasizes the need for

Primary lymphoma of brain: results of management of a modern cohort with radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Laperriere, Normand J.; Cerezo, Laura; Milosevic, Michael F.; Wong, C. Shun; Patterson, Bruce; Panzarella, Tony

1997-01-01

Purpose: To assess the outcome and prognostic factors for patients with primary lymphoma of brain managed with radiation therapy between 1979 and 1988. Methods and materials: A retrospective review was undertaken of 49 patients referred to Princess Margaret Hospital. There were 25 males and 24 females. Median age was 60 years, with a range of 17-80 years. Tumors were located supratentorially in 35, infratentorially in 10, and both in 4 patients. Single masses were demonstrated on CT brain in 36, and multiple lesions in 13 patients. Cranial irradiation was given in 48, and 11 patients received chemotherapy. All patients in this series were immunocompetent. Results: Over a follow-up range of 3-11 years of surviving patients, with a median of 6 years, (40(49)) patients have died. Overall median survival was 1.4 years (17 months) and 5-year actuarial survival was 26%. Statistical analysis revealed the following significant factors: Karnofsky performance status (KPS), age, and distribution pattern of disease on presenting CT brain. Five-year actuarial survival for patients with a KPS > 60 or 60, 5-year actuarial survival was 42% and 9%, respectively (P = 0.03); for patients with solitary or multiple lesions, 5-year actuarial survival was 30% and 15%, respectively (P = 0.04). Conclusions: We conclude that Karnofsky performance status, age, and distribution pattern on pretreatment CT of brain are significant prognostic factors in primary lymphoma of brain, and that new approaches need to be developed for these patients

Afrika Statistika ISSN 2316-090X Asymptotic distribution of the ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

in actuarial and econometric contexts (see e.g. Brazauskas et al. 2007, 2009, and ... Journal home page: www.jafristat.net ..... its estimation, and an analysis of incomes in Italy. Journal of ... Robust estimation of the quintile share ratio with bias.

"Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

L Steynberg

2011-05-01

Full Text Available In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the actuary is to guide the court in the calculations to be made. Relying on its wide judicial discretion the court will have the final say regarding the correctness of the assumptions on which these calculations are based. The court should give detailed reasons if any assumptions or parts of the calculations made by the actuary are rejected. It should preferably refrain from making its own calculations if an actuary is involved and should rather instruct the actuary to do recalculations if necessary. It does, however, fall within the wide discretion of the court to make a general contingency adjustment after the basic calculations have been accepted. In assessing delictual damages it is the duty of the court to ensure that both objective and subjective factors are considered in such a manner that the assessment may be regarded as an application of "fair" mathematics.

Severe Pulmonary Toxicity After Myeloablative Conditioning Using Total Body Irradiation: An Assessment of Risk Factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kelsey, Chris R.; Horwitz, Mitchell E.; Chino, Junzo P.; Craciunescu, Oana; Steffey, Beverly; Folz, Rodney J.; Chao, Nelson J.; Rizzieri, David A.; Marks, Lawrence B.

2011-01-01

Purpose: To assess factors associated with severe pulmonary toxicity after myeloablative conditioning using total body irradiation (TBI) followed by allogeneic stem cell transplantation. Methods and Materials: A total of 101 adult patients who underwent TBI-based myeloablative conditioning for hematologic malignancies at Duke University between 1998 and 2008 were reviewed. TBI was combined with high-dose cyclophosphamide, melphalan, fludarabine, or etoposide, depending on the underlying disease. Acute pulmonary toxicity, occurring within 90 days of transplantation, was scored using Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events version 3.0. Actuarial overall survival and the cumulative incidence of acute pulmonary toxicity were calculated via the Kaplan-Meier method and compared using a log-rank test. A binary logistic regression analysis was performed to assess factors independently associated with acute severe pulmonary toxicity. Results: The 90-day actuarial risk of developing severe (Grade 3-5) pulmonary toxicity was 33%. Actuarial survival at 90 days was 49% in patients with severe pulmonary toxicity vs. 94% in patients without (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, the number of prior chemotherapy regimens was the only factor independently associated with development of severe pulmonary toxicity (odds ratio, 2.7 per regimen). Conclusions: Severe acute pulmonary toxicity is prevalent after TBI-based myeloablative conditioning regimens, occurring in approximately 33% of patients. The number of prior chemotherapy regimens appears to be an important risk factor.

Predicting the local outcome of glottic squamous cell carcinoma after definitive radiation therapy: value of computed tomography-determined tumour parameters

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermans, R.; Van den Bogaert, W.; Rijnders, A.; Doornaert, P.; Baert, A.L.

1999-01-01

Background and purpose: The T-classification has shortcomings in the prediction of local outcome of glottic squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) treated by definitive radiation therapy. In this regard, the value of several CT-derived tumour parameters as predictors of local outcome was investigated. Materials and methods: The pretreatment CT studies of 119 patients with glottic SCC (T1, n=61; T2, n=40; T3, n=14; T4, n=4) treated with curative intent by radiation therapy were reviewed for tumoral involvement of specific laryngeal anatomic subsites (including laryngeal cartilages). Tumour volume was calculated with the summation-of-areas technique. Actuarial (life-table) statistical analysis was done for each of the covariates; multivariate analysis was performed using the Cox proportional hazards model.Results: In the actuarial analysis tumour volume was significantly correlated with local recurrence rate (P=0.0062). Involvement of the cricoid cartilage (P=0.0052), anterior commissure (P=0.0203), subglottis (P=0.0481) and preepiglottic space (P=0.0134) and degree of involvement of the true vocal cord (P=0.0441) and paraglottic space at the level of the true vocal cord (P=0.0002) were also significantly correlated with local recurrence rate. In the multivariate analysis, only degree of involvement of the paraglottic space (at the level of the true vocal cord) (P=0.0001) and preepiglottic space (P=0.02) were found to be independent predictors of local recurrence. The T-category was significantly correlated with local outcome in the actuarial analysis (P=0.0001), but not in the multivariate analysis (P=0.5915). Conclusions: Several CT-derived parameters are powerful predictors of local outcome in glottic cancer treated with radiation therapy; some of these parameters are stronger linked to the local control rate than the T-classification. (Copyright (c) 1999 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

No Failure of Imagination: Examining Foundational Flaws in America’s Homeland Security Enterprise

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-01

Casualty Actuarial Society Enterprise Risk Management Committee (2003) has adopted the following definition of ERM in May 2003: ERM is the...refused to go to an air- raid shelter due to the mathematical improbability of a bomb killing him out of all the people in Moscow. He changed his mind... Actuarial Society. Casualty Actuarial Society Enterprise Risk Management Committee. (2003). Technical Report. Overview of enterprise risk management

Terrorist Networks, Money Laundering Schemes, and Nation Stability

Science.gov (United States)

2010-06-01

Stabilization Initiative  $106,400,000.00 to recon/stab  Seven countries per fiscal year  American Academy of Actuaries insured losses (relatively...Indicators  Political Instability Task Force Report  Mathematical Model (Linear Program Optimization)  Develop a value system (utility theory) to...deeper ahead. 47 LIST OF REFERENCES American Academy of Actuaries (Finance Data). Retrieved September 20, 2009, from, http://www.actuary.org

The importance of adequate follow-up in defining treatment success after external beam irradiation for prostate cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vicini, Frank A.; Kestin, Larry L.; Martinez, Alvaro A.

1999-01-01

median follow-up of 3 years for this cohort (range: 1 to 5 years). This process was repeated five times for five random samples of seven cohorts each. Biochemical failure was calculated according to the Consensus Panel definition. Results: In the first analysis, significantly different rates of biochemical control (varying by 6-21%) were calculated for the same actuarial year chosen for analysis depending only upon the length of follow-up used. For example, the 3-year actuarial rate of biochemical control (BC) varied from 71% when calculated with 3 years of follow-up versus 50.4% with 7 years (p < 0.01). These differences in actuarial rates of BC were observed in all subsets of patients analyzed (e.g., PSA < 10, Gleason ≤ 6, n = 132, p < 0.001; PSA < 10, Gleason ≥ 7, n = 33, p = 0.03; PSA ≥ 10, Gleason ≤ 6, n = 109, p < 0.001; and PSA ≥ 10, Gleason ≥ 7, n = 72, p = 0.002). The absolute magnitude of the difference in actuarial rates of BC was greatest during years 2 (range 18-30%), 3 (range 16-25%), and 4 (range 15-24%) after treatment. In the second analysis using median PSA follow-ups (as defined above), statistically significant differences in actuarial rates of BC were again observed. For example, the 3-year actuarial rate of BC varied from 74.8% with a median follow-up of 2 years versus 49.2% with a median follow-up of 6 years. These dramatic differences in BC were still observed beyond 5 years. Conclusion: When the ASTRO Consensus Panel definition of BF is used to calculate treatment success with external beam RT for prostate cancer, adequate follow-up is critical. Depending upon the length of time after treatment, significantly different rates of BC (varying by 15% to 30%) can be calculated for the same time interval chosen for analysis. These results suggest that data should only be reported if the length of follow-up extends at least beyond the time point at which actuarial results are examined for the majority of patients

Publications | Page 194 | IDRC - International Development ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Actuaries assess risks involved in insurance and pensions, through proper product design, pricing, development of underwriting standards, determination of asset management strategies, claims analysis, ... Adding salary from the defeso to tourism earnings could encourage fishermen to restrict their fishing activities in the.

Handbook on loss reserving

CERN Document Server

Schmidt, Klaus; Schnaus, Anja

2016-01-01

This handbook presents the basic aspects of actuarial loss reserving. Besides the traditional methods, it also includes a description of more recent ones and a discussion of certain problems occurring in actuarial practice, like inflation, scarce data, large claims, slow loss development, the use of market statistics, the need for simulation techniques and the task of calculating best estimates and ranges of future losses. In property and casualty insurance the provisions for payment obligations from losses that have occurred but have not yet been settled usually constitute the largest item on the liabilities side of an insurer's balance sheet. For this reason, the determination and evaluation of these loss reserves is of considerable economic importance for every property and casualty insurer. Actuarial students, academics as well as practicing actuaries will benefit from this overview of the most important actuarial methods of loss reserving by developing an understanding of the underlying stochastic models...

Sustaining Air Force Aging Aircraft into the 21st Century

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-01

Predictive analytics has found application in fields such as actuarial science, financial services, insurance, telecommunications, retail, travel...prioritization based on mathematical analysis of fleets in greatest need of FVB’s in-depth assessment • AF/A8 adjusts priorities based on recapitalization or...depth analysis by the 146 USAF Fleet Viability Board. It provides rough-order-of-magnitude prioritization based on mathematical analysis of USAF

Breast conservation treatment of early stage breast cancer: patterns of failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Leborgne, Felix; Leborgne, Jose H; Ortega, Bettys; Doldan, Raquel; Zubizarreta, Eduardo

1995-02-15

Purpose: This study retrospectively assesses the patterns of failure in conservatively treated early stage breast cancer patients by correlating various clinical, pathologic, and treatment-related factors with local, axillary, and distant relapse. Methods and Materials: Between 1973 and 1990, 796 patients (817 breasts) received breast conservation surgery followed by radiotherapy. Local recurrences were counted as events even if they occurred simultaneously or after the appearance of axillary or distant metastases. Results: The 10-year actuarial relative disease-free survival (DFS) rate for T1N0, T2N0, and T1-2N1 was 82%, 71%, and 54%, respectively. Stage N0 patients had a significant DFS advantage over N1 patients (p = 0.02). The 15-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for T1 and T2 tumors was 82% and 87%, respectively (p = nonsignificant). Univariate analysis identified three significant risk factors for local relapse: (a) 48 breasts with tumors showing an extensive intraductal component had a crude local recurrence rate of 23% compared to 8% for 769 breasts without intraductal component (p 0.0016); (b) the actuarial 10-year local recurrence-free rate for patients under age 40 years was 64% compared to 88% for patients over 40 years (p < 0.0001); (c) the 10-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for 416 postmenopausal women without adjuvant tamoxifen was 83% compared to 97% for 107 postmenopausal women with tamoxifen (p = 0.0479). Salvage therapy for operable local recurrent patients resulted in a 8-year actuarial DFS rate of 47%, significantly lower than that obtained with primary treatment. The incidence of axillary relapse as the first sign of recurrence was 2%, and could be correlated with the lack of axillary dissection (p < 0.0000005) and primary tumor size (p = 0.03). Radiotherapy to the axilla did not influence axillary relapse. Actuarial 5-year DFS rate after treatment of isolated axillary recurrence was 27%. Axillary failure was a marker for

Breast conservation treatment of early stage breast cancer: patterns of failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Leborgne, Felix; Leborgne, Jose H.; Ortega, Bettys; Doldan, Raquel; Zubizarreta, Eduardo

1995-01-01

Purpose: This study retrospectively assesses the patterns of failure in conservatively treated early stage breast cancer patients by correlating various clinical, pathologic, and treatment-related factors with local, axillary, and distant relapse. Methods and Materials: Between 1973 and 1990, 796 patients (817 breasts) received breast conservation surgery followed by radiotherapy. Local recurrences were counted as events even if they occurred simultaneously or after the appearance of axillary or distant metastases. Results: The 10-year actuarial relative disease-free survival (DFS) rate for T1N0, T2N0, and T1-2N1 was 82%, 71%, and 54%, respectively. Stage N0 patients had a significant DFS advantage over N1 patients (p = 0.02). The 15-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for T1 and T2 tumors was 82% and 87%, respectively (p = nonsignificant). Univariate analysis identified three significant risk factors for local relapse: (a) 48 breasts with tumors showing an extensive intraductal component had a crude local recurrence rate of 23% compared to 8% for 769 breasts without intraductal component (p 0.0016); (b) the actuarial 10-year local recurrence-free rate for patients under age 40 years was 64% compared to 88% for patients over 40 years (p < 0.0001); (c) the 10-year actuarial local recurrence-free rate for 416 postmenopausal women without adjuvant tamoxifen was 83% compared to 97% for 107 postmenopausal women with tamoxifen (p = 0.0479). Salvage therapy for operable local recurrent patients resulted in a 8-year actuarial DFS rate of 47%, significantly lower than that obtained with primary treatment. The incidence of axillary relapse as the first sign of recurrence was 2%, and could be correlated with the lack of axillary dissection (p < 0.0000005) and primary tumor size (p = 0.03). Radiotherapy to the axilla did not influence axillary relapse. Actuarial 5-year DFS rate after treatment of isolated axillary recurrence was 27%. Axillary failure was a marker for

76 FR 558 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-01-05

... technical aspects of estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted... actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which Trustees might more accurately measure health...

Results of salvage surgery for mammary recurrence following breast-conserving therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kurtz, J.M.; Amalric, R.; Brandone, H.; Ayme, Y.; Spitalier, J.M.

1988-01-01

A retrospective analysis was performed of 118 surgically treated mammary recurrences, occurring following primary conservative excision and radiation therapy for clinical Stages I and II breast cancer. Actuarial cancer-specific survival following salvage surgery was 72% at 5 years and 58% at 10 years. With a median followup of 7 years, further local-regional recurrences were observed in 20 of the 118 patients, many of whom could be treated by further surgery. Actuarial survival after recurrence was significantly influenced by initial clinical stage, as well as by the disease-free interval following primary therapy, but was similar for both premenopausal and postmenopausal patients and for patients treated by radical or breast-conserving salvage operations. For recurrences after the fifth year, actuarial survival following salvage surgery was 83% and 68% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. Survival for Stage I patients was favorable regardless of disease-free interval. It is concluded that recurrences in the breast following primary treatment with limited surgery and irradiation have a considerably more favorable prognosis than that of local failures after primary radical surgery. Suggestions for the management of these recurrences are presented

Preoperative irradiation, lymphadenectomy, and 125iodine implantation for patients with localized carcinoma of the prostate

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

DeLaney, T.F.; Shipley, W.U.; O'Leary, M.P.; Biggs, P.J.; Prout, G.R. Jr.

1986-01-01

Fifty-four patients with clinically and surgically localized prostatic carcinoma were treated with low-dose preoperative irradiation (1050 cGy), pelvic lymphadenectomy, and interstitial 125 Iodine implantation. The follow-up range is 2 to 9 years with a median follow-up of 5 years. Overall local tumor control is 92%. Actuarial 5-year survival is 86% and the actuarial disease-free survival at 5 years is 73%. Patients with poorly differentiated tumors have a significantly worse actuarial survival (62%) at 5 years than patients with well (95%) or moderately well differentiated tumors (93%), p = 0.04. Disease-free survival at 5 years was influenced by grade: well (100%), moderate (60%), and poor (48%), p = 0.03. Multivariate regression analysis indicates that only the degree of differentiation (p = 0.05) significantly impacts on survival. Both degree of differentiation (p = 0.04) and nodal status (p = 0.03) significantly influence disease-free survival. Potency has been maintained in 71% of patients potent at the time of implantation. Late reactions have been acceptable to date: bladder outlet obstruction (13%), mild proctitis (13%), cystourethritis (6%), incontinence (2%), and prostatic calculi (2%)

Diagnostic yield of fine needle aspiration biopsy in HIV-infected ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2014-01-27

Jan 27, 2014 ... Statistics and Actuarial Sciences, Stellenbosch. University, for the data analysis. References. 1. Reuter H, Wood R, Schaaf HS, Donald PR. Overview of. Extrapulmonary Tuberculosis in Adults and Children. In: Schaaf. HS, Zumla A, eds. Tuberculosis: A Comprehensive Clinical. Reference. Atlanta: Saunders ...

A Randomized Phase 2 Trial of 177Lu Radiolabeled Anti-PSMA Monoclonal Antibody J591in Patients with High-Risk Castrate, Biochemically Relapsed Prostate Cancer

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-01

2010 and 2011 annual scientific meeting of the American Society of Clinical Oncologists  Manuscript detailing background and rationale for the...noncancerous causes, and 6.6% died from unknown causes [15]. A pooled analysis of salvage cryoablation demonstrated 54.5% 5-year actuarial biochemical

76 FR 65195 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-10-20

... estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics... actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which Trustees might more accurately project health...

75 FR 70925 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-11-19

... estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics... actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which Trustees might more accurately measure health...

A Summary of the Foundation Research Program, Fiscal Year 1985.

Science.gov (United States)

1986-05-12

system in the domain of actuarial science. Publication: T. R. Sivasankaran and M. Jarke, "Coupling Expert .z- Systems and Actuarial Pricing Models... Actuarial Pricing Models," Workshop on Coupling Symbolic and Numerical Computing in Expert Systems, Bellevue, Washington, August 1985. 16 Title: Application...Ramjets", AIAA-85-1177, AIAA/SAE/ ASME /ASEE 21st Joint Propulsion Conference, July 8-10, 1985. A. Gany and D. W. Netzer, "Fuel Performance Evaluation

Office of the Secretary of Defense Retirement Options

Science.gov (United States)

2014-09-01

majority of officers are male. Data for life expectancies were extrapolated from the DOD Office of the Actuary Life Expectancy Rate. This rate was...All the data for annuity payments were based on the DOD Office of the Actuary Statistical Report on the Military Retirement System Fiscal Year 2013...represent the possible payouts at a certain YOS and rank. Information on estimated age of retirement and estimated life expectancy based on DOD actuary

The Army’s Local Economic Effects

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Garcia in the Department of Defense Office of the Actuary delivered essential data for this project and came through at the perfect moment. The...Appendix A. 9 U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Actuary , Statistical Report on the Military Retirement System: Fiscal Year 2012, Department...of Defense, 2013; U.S. Department of Defense, Office of the Actuary , Statistical Report on the Military Retire- ment System: Fiscal Year 2013, May 2014

Military Retirement Fund Audited Financial Report. Fiscal Year 2013

Science.gov (United States)

2013-12-09

accumulates funds to finance, on an actuarial basis, the liabilities of DoD under military retirement and survivor benefit programs. Within DoD, the...for the accounting, investing, payment of benefits, and reporting of the MRF. The DoD Office of the Actuary (OACT) within OUSD(P&R) calculates the... actuarial liability of the MRF. The Office of Military Personnel Policy within OUSD(P&R) issues policy related to MRS benefits. While the MRF does

Military Retirement Fund Audited Financial Report. Fiscal Year 2015

Science.gov (United States)

2015-11-06

benefits. The MRF accumulates funds to finance, on an actuarial basis, the liabilities of DoD under military retirement and survivor benefit programs...DFAS is responsible for the accounting, investing, payment of benefits, and reporting of the MRF. The DoD Office of the Actuary (OACT) within OUSD(P...R) calculates the actuarial liability and funding requirements of the MRF. The Office of Military Personnel Policy within OUSD(P&R) issues policy

Incorporating Private Sector Ideas into Military Retirement Reform: A Cash Balance Plan Approach

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-01

OBJECTIVES The DOD Office of the Actuary defines the purpose of the system. Doing so establishes a baseline from which to judge the effectiveness of the...system in meeting its ultimate objectives. In the Valuation of the Military Retirement System—September 30, 2011, the DOD Office of the Actuary (2013...increasingly unaffordable” and “unsustainable” with the present rising costs. The OSD Office of the Actuary forecasts the annual retirement payments to

Hazard function analysis for flood planning under nonstationarity

Science.gov (United States)

Read, Laura K.; Vogel, Richard M.

2016-05-01

The field of hazard function analysis (HFA) involves a probabilistic assessment of the "time to failure" or "return period," T, of an event of interest. HFA is used in epidemiology, manufacturing, medicine, actuarial statistics, reliability engineering, economics, and elsewhere. For a stationary process, the probability distribution function (pdf) of the return period always follows an exponential distribution, the same is not true for nonstationary processes. When the process of interest, X, exhibits nonstationary behavior, HFA can provide a complementary approach to risk analysis with analytical tools particularly useful for hydrological applications. After a general introduction to HFA, we describe a new mathematical linkage between the magnitude of the flood event, X, and its return period, T, for nonstationary processes. We derive the probabilistic properties of T for a nonstationary one-parameter exponential model of X, and then use both Monte-Carlo simulation and HFA to generalize the behavior of T when X arises from a nonstationary two-parameter lognormal distribution. For this case, our findings suggest that a two-parameter Weibull distribution provides a reasonable approximation for the pdf of T. We document how HFA can provide an alternative approach to characterize the probabilistic properties of both nonstationary flood series and the resulting pdf of T.

76 FR 7569 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-02-10

... economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics that they choose to... actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by which Trustees might more accurately measure health...

Split-course accelerated therapy in head and neck cancer: an analysis of toxicity

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Delaney, Geoffrey P; Fisher, Richard J; Smee, Robert I; Hook, Carolyn; Barton, Michael B

1995-06-15

Purpose: To retrospectively assess a protocol of split-course accelerated radiation therapy (SCAT) for selected head and neck cancers. Methods and Materials: SCAT consisted of 1.8 Gy per fraction administered twice daily with a minimum gap between fractions of 6 h. The treatment protocol prescribed an initial 16 fractions followed by a planned 5 to 12 day break, and then a further 20 to 22 fractions for a total dose ranging from 64.8 to 72 Gy delivered in 5 to 6 weeks. Results: Twenty-eight patients received SCAT for histologically confirmed head and neck cancer between January 1987 and August 1991. All patients were followed up until December 1, 1993. The mean potential follow-up time was 4.2 years (range: 2.9-6.2 years). All patients completed the treatment protocol. Thirteen tumors were laryngeal in origin, eight hypopharyngeal, four paranasal sinus, and three oropharyngeal. There were no Stage I, three Stage II, nine Stage III, and 12 Stage IV tumors. Four tumors were not staged (two paranasal sinus cancers and two surgical recurrences). Early and late toxicities were moderate to severe. Confluent mucositis was experienced by 27 of the 28 patients (96%). One patient required a prolonged midtreatment break of 24 days. Nine patients (32%) required narcotic analgesia for pain relief. Eleven patients (39%) required hospitalization for nasogastric feeding or pain control. The median length of hospital stay was 14 days (range 7-98 days). The actuarial rate of severe late toxicity at 3 years was 47% (standard error (SE) = 13%). A complete tumor response was achieved in 86% of patients. The actuarial local control rate at 3 years was 43% (SE = 11%) and the actuarial survival rate at 3 years was 25% (SE = 8%). Conclusion: Given the encouraging complete response rate and local control for such advanced tumors, SCAT for locoregionally advanced tumors merits further investigation. However, because of the significant late toxicity observed, the total dose, interfraction

Split-course accelerated therapy in head and neck cancer: an analysis of toxicity

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Delaney, Geoffrey P.; Fisher, Richard J.; Smee, Robert I.; Hook, Carolyn; Barton, Michael B.

1995-01-01

Purpose: To retrospectively assess a protocol of split-course accelerated radiation therapy (SCAT) for selected head and neck cancers. Methods and Materials: SCAT consisted of 1.8 Gy per fraction administered twice daily with a minimum gap between fractions of 6 h. The treatment protocol prescribed an initial 16 fractions followed by a planned 5 to 12 day break, and then a further 20 to 22 fractions for a total dose ranging from 64.8 to 72 Gy delivered in 5 to 6 weeks. Results: Twenty-eight patients received SCAT for histologically confirmed head and neck cancer between January 1987 and August 1991. All patients were followed up until December 1, 1993. The mean potential follow-up time was 4.2 years (range: 2.9-6.2 years). All patients completed the treatment protocol. Thirteen tumors were laryngeal in origin, eight hypopharyngeal, four paranasal sinus, and three oropharyngeal. There were no Stage I, three Stage II, nine Stage III, and 12 Stage IV tumors. Four tumors were not staged (two paranasal sinus cancers and two surgical recurrences). Early and late toxicities were moderate to severe. Confluent mucositis was experienced by 27 of the 28 patients (96%). One patient required a prolonged midtreatment break of 24 days. Nine patients (32%) required narcotic analgesia for pain relief. Eleven patients (39%) required hospitalization for nasogastric feeding or pain control. The median length of hospital stay was 14 days (range 7-98 days). The actuarial rate of severe late toxicity at 3 years was 47% (standard error (SE) = 13%). A complete tumor response was achieved in 86% of patients. The actuarial local control rate at 3 years was 43% (SE = 11%) and the actuarial survival rate at 3 years was 25% (SE = 8%). Conclusion: Given the encouraging complete response rate and local control for such advanced tumors, SCAT for locoregionally advanced tumors merits further investigation. However, because of the significant late toxicity observed, the total dose, interfraction

Potential Costs of Veterans’ Health Care

Science.gov (United States)

2010-10-01

coverage, there is no rigid mathematical relationship among those proportions because veterans enrolled in Part A may choose to enroll in either Part B or...assumption is consistent with the statistical analysis by an actuarial firm with which VA contracted when developing its model for projecting

Analysis of Alternatives in System Capability Satisficing for Effective Acquisition

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-30

Technology. He received his BS in Actuarial Science from Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, MS in Statistics, and MS and PhD in Industrial and Systems...one can view this metric (ITRLfk(i)) as “subsystem” measurement of this technology integrates within the system. In a mathematical representation...that this new metric should be a function of the different ITRLs of each technology, or in a mathematical representation: SRL_Cfk=f(ITRLfk(1), ITRLfk

What Are You Worth? The Value of a Human Life and Its Impact on Personnel Recovery

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-01

examination of value of life discussions in fields such as bioethics and actuarial science . The study then explores the impact of value of life on three...discussions in fields such as bioethics and actuarial science . The study then explores the impact of value of life on three key decisions: the...the Spirit of Biocapital,” (Daedalus, Winter 2008, 36-48), 36. 51 Robert Haston, How An Actuarial Scientist Might Look At Life, Death, and Dollars in

"Fair" mathematics in assessing delictual damages

OpenAIRE

Steynberg, L

2011-01-01

In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the actuary is to guide the court in the calculations to be made. Relying on its wide judicial discretion the court will have the final say regarding the correct...

76 FR 30170 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-05-24

... estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics... discussion is expected to be very technical in nature and will focus on the actuarial and economic...

76 FR 18765 - Agency Information Collection Request; 60-Day Public Comment Request

Science.gov (United States)

2011-04-05

... several former and current chief actuaries at health insurers. Data collection activities will be... respondent response hours Self-administered web survey Chief Actuary at health insurance 408 1 45/60 306...

The Pension Fund passes important milestones

CERN Document Server

2012-01-01

In this column, the Chairman of the Pension Fund Governing Board (PFGB) presents the Board's latest main decisions, initiatives and accomplishments to the Fund's members and beneficiaries.   Since my last report in October, the PFGB has passed several milestones in actuarial, technical and investment matters. The PFGB has completed an analysis of a request by the European Organisation for Astronomical Research in the Southern Hemisphere (ESO) to reduce the increased cost of pension insurance for new ESO recruits that has been caused by the increased CHF/€ exchange ratio. Currently the staff of ESO are admitted to the CERN Pension Fund, pursuant to a co-operation agreement between CERN and ESO dating back to 1968. This analysis assessed the actuarial, financial, administrative and legal implications, and is scheduled to be presented to the CERN Council and the Finance Committee in December. After an open tendering process the PFGB has selected Buck Consultants Limited...

Treatment of locally advanced adenoid cystic carcinoma of the head and neck with neutron radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Douglas, James G.; Laramore, George E.; Austin-Seymour, Mary; Koh Wuijin; Stelzer, Keith; Griffin, Thomas W.

2000-01-01

Purpose: To examine the efficacy of fast neutron radiotherapy for the treatment of locally advanced and/or recurrent adenoid cystic carcinoma of the head and neck and to identify prognostic variables associated with local-regional control and survival. Methods and Materials: One hundred fifty-nine patients with nonmetastatic, previously unirradiated, locally advanced, and/or recurrent adenoid cystic carcinoma (ACC) of the head and neck region were treated with fast neutron radiotherapy during the years 1985-1997. One hundred fifty-one patients had either unresectable disease, or gross residual disease (GRD) after an attempted surgical extirpation. Eight patients had microscopic residual disease and were analyzed separately. Sixty-two percent of patients had tumors arising in minor salivary glands, 29% in major salivary glands, and 9% in other sites such as the lacrimal glands, tracheal-bronchial tree, etc. Fifty-five percent of patients were treated for postsurgical recurrent disease and 13% of patients had lymph node involvement at the time of treatment. The median duration of follow-up was 32 months (range 3-142 months). Actuarial curves for survival, cause-specific survival, local-regional control, and the development of distant metastases are presented for times out to 11 years. Results: The 5-year actuarial local-regional tumor control rate for the 151 patients with GRD was 57%; the 5-year actuarial overall survival rate was 72%; and the 5-year actuarial cause-specific survival rate was 77%. Variables associated with decreased local-regional control in the patients with GRD as determined by multivariate analysis included base of skull involvement (p < 0.01) and biopsy only versus an attempted surgical resection prior to treatment (p = 0.03). Patients without these negative factors had an actuarial local-regional control rate of 80% at 5 years. Patients with microscopic residual disease (n = 8) had a 5-year actuarial local-regional control rate of 100%. Base of

143^rd and 144^th meetings of the Governing Board of the Pension Fund

CERN Multimedia

2006-01-01

During the meeting, the Board also approved a document setting out its position on the CERN debt to the Pension Fund, which would be submitted to the Finance Committee and Council in June. It underlined that the reimbursement of the debt would be advantageous for the Fund as well as for the Laboratory and that it would reduce the Fund's dependence on the employer, in line with international accounting practices. The second of the two meetings was essentially devoted to examining the actuary's report on the Fund's position with respect to its actuarial commitments as at 1st January 2006. The report, the first of its kind, follows the Board's decision to commission actuarial studies to check the Fund's position in open fund terms between three-yearly actuarial reviews. Based on the Fund's position as at the end of 2005 and taking account of the Council's decisions in December 2005, it reveals a net improvement in the Fund's long-term (30-year) financial balance. However, the actuary states in the conclusions t...

Effective treatment of Stage I uterine papillary serous carcinoma with high dose-rate vaginal apex radiation (192Ir) and chemotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Turner, Bruce C.; Knisely, Jonathan P. S.; Kacinski, Barry M.; Haffty, Bruce G.; Gumbs, Andrew A.; Roberts, Kenneth B.; Frank, Alex H.; Peschel, Richard E.; Rutherford, Thomas J.; Edraki, Babak; Kohorn, Ernest I.; Chambers, Setsuko K.; Schwartz, Peter E.; Wilson, Lynn D.

1998-01-01

Purpose: Uterine papillary serous carcinoma (UPSC) is a morphologically distinct variant of endometrial carcinoma that is associated with a poor prognosis, high recurrence rate, frequent clinical understaging, and poor response to salvage treatment. We retrospectively analyzed local control, actuarial overall survival (OS), actuarial disease-free survival (DFS), salvage rate, and complications for patients with Federation International of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) (1988) Stage I UPSC. Methods and Materials: This retrospective analysis describes 38 patients with FIGO Stage I UPSC who were treated with the combinations of radiation therapy, chemotherapy, total abdominal hysterectomy, and bilateral salpingo-oophorectomy (TAH/BSO), with or without a surgical staging procedure. Twenty of 38 patients were treated with a combination of low dose-rate (LDR) uterine/vaginal brachytherapy using 226 Ra or 137 Cs and conventional whole-abdomen radiation therapy (WART) or whole-pelvic radiation therapy (WPRT). Of 20 patients (10%) in this treatment group, 2 received cisplatin chemotherapy. Eighteen patients were treated with high dose-rate (HDR) vaginal apex brachytherapy using 192 Ir with an afterloading device and cisplatin, doxorubicin, and cyclophosphamide (CAP) chemotherapy (5 of 18 patients). Only 6 of 20 UPSC patients treated with combination LDR uterine/vaginal brachytherapy and conventional external beam radiotherapy underwent complete surgical staging, consisting of TAH/BSO, pelvic/para-aortic lymph node sampling, omentectomy, and peritoneal fluid analysis, compared to 15 of 18 patients treated with HDR vaginal apex brachytherapy. Results: The 5-year actuarial OS for patients with complete surgical staging and adjuvant radiation/chemotherapy treatment was 100% vs. 61% for patients without complete staging (p = 0.002). The 5-year actuarial OS for all Stage I UPSC patients treated with postoperative HDR vaginal apex brachytherapy and systemic chemotherapy was 94

What we do | Page 97 | IDRC - International Development Research ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

... HealthBridge Foundation of Canada (HealthBridge) is developing online training for ... Actuarial Sciences Graduate Training Program (India-Waterloo) ... to a proliferation of insurance companies and a dire need for actuarial professionals.

12 CFR 563.47 - Pension plans.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... by an enrolled actuary (as defined by the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974) affirming... expectations, and represent the actuary's best estimate of the plan's projected experiences. [59 FR 66159, Dec...

South African Actuarial Journal: Submissions

African Journals Online (AJOL)

2 It would be helpful to the Editor if authors complied with the standards of style .... that the nomination must be qualified accordingly and that the Editor must ensure ... employment or common clients is to be submitted for publication in SAAJ, the ..... reader to find the piece referred to, for example in a library or on the internet, ...

How Fair Is Actuarial Fairness?

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Landes, Xavier

2015-01-01

Insurance is pervasive in many social settings. As a cooperative device based on risk pooling, it serves to attenuate the adverse consequences of various risks (health, unemployment, natural catastrophes and so forth) by offering policyholders coverage against the losses implied by adverse events...... and burdens of social cooperation....

Life insurance theory actuarial perspectives

CERN Document Server

Vylder, F Etienne

1997-01-01

This book is different from all other books on Life Insurance by at least one of the following characteristics 1-4. 1. The treatment of life insurances at three different levels: time-capital, present value and price level. We call time-capital any distribution of a capital over time: (*) is the time-capital with amounts Cl, ~, ... , C at moments Tl, T , ..• , T resp. N 2 N For instance, let (x) be a life at instant 0 with future lifetime X. Then the whole oO oO life insurance A is the time-capital (I,X). The whole life annuity ä is the x x time-capital (1,0) + (1,1) + (1,2) + ... + (I,'X), where 'X is the integer part ofX. The present value at 0 of time-capital (*) is the random variable T1 T TN Cl V + ~ v , + ... + CNV . (**) In particular, the present value ofA 00 and ä 00 is x x 0 0 2 A = ~ and ä = 1 + v + v + ... + v'X resp. x x The price (or premium) of a time-capital is the expectation of its present value. In particular, the price ofA 00 and äx 00 is x 2 A = E(~) and ä = E(I + v + v + ... + v'X...

26 CFR 1.807-1 - Mortality and morbidity tables.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... the Society of Actuaries. 4b. Group life insurance disability income benefits (disabled life reserves) The 1930 to 1950 termination rates of the 1952 Disability study of the Society of Actuaries. 5. Group...

78 FR 48506 - Approval of Amendment to Special Withdrawal Liability Rules the I.A.M. National Pension Fund...

Science.gov (United States)

2013-08-08

... the plan actuary which are deemed to be reasonable (taking into account the experience of the plan and reasonable expectations) and which offer the actuary's best estimate of anticipated experience under the plan...

76 FR 45574 - Agency Information Collection Request: 30-Day Public Comment Request

Science.gov (United States)

2011-07-29

... actuaries at health insurers. Data collection activities will be completed within 60 days (two months) of...-administered web survey Chief Actuary at health insurance 408 1 45/60 306 companies. Mary Forbes, Paperwork...

Demand for Health Insurance by Military Retirees

Science.gov (United States)

2015-05-01

expected to slow down; the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services (Office of the Actuary ) predicts only a modest increase in FYs 2013–2018 premiums...models and data from the BLS, HCBS, Internal Revenue Service (IRS) and DoD Actuary to predict real disposable incomes and marginal tax rates of HCBS...OOP index divided by CPI-U (2012) INCOME*D1 Individual BLS, DoD Actuary , HCBS, and IRS FYs 2000–2012; 2003 Survey of Retirees Logarithm of expected

29 CFR 2509.75-9 - Interpretive bulletin relating to guidelines on independence of accountant retained by Employee...

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

...) the rendering of services by an actuary associated with an accountant or accounting firm shall not... of services to a plan by an actuary and accountant employed by the same firm may constitute a...

The Veteran Population Projection 2014

Data.gov (United States)

Department of Veterans Affairs — VetPop2014 is an actuarial projection model developed by the Office of the Actuary (OACT) for Veteran population projection from Fiscal Year FY2014 to FY2043. Using...

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African Journals Online (AJOL)

Department of Actuarial Science and Insurance,. University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria. Email: kolaojikutu@yahoo.com. ABSTRACT. This study describes the characteristics of the people of Lagos State, Nigeria in rela- tion to death patterns using simple descriptive analysis and tests of hypotheses, From the death records of ...

Legislative Actions to Repeal, Defund, or Delay the Affordable Care Act

Science.gov (United States)

2013-11-22

Public Health Sciences Track, pursuant to ACA Section 5315. • Removed the maintenance of effort requirement for use of monies in the Community Health...Office (GAO) study of the costs and processes of ACA implementation, and a Medicare actuarial analysis of the impact of the ACA’s private insurance

Acquaintance Rape: Applying Crime Scene Analysis to the Prediction of Sexual Recidivism.

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Lehmann, Robert J B; Goodwill, Alasdair M; Hanson, R Karl; Dahle, Klaus-Peter

2016-10-01

The aim of the current study was to enhance the assessment and predictive accuracy of risk assessments for sexual offenders by utilizing detailed crime scene analysis (CSA). CSA was conducted on a sample of 247 male acquaintance rapists from Berlin (Germany) using a nonmetric, multidimensional scaling (MDS) Behavioral Thematic Analysis (BTA) approach. The age of the offenders at the time of the index offense ranged from 14 to 64 years (M = 32.3; SD = 11.4). The BTA procedure revealed three behavioral themes of hostility, criminality, and pseudo-intimacy, consistent with previous CSA research on stranger rape. The construct validity of the three themes was demonstrated through correlational analyses with known sexual offending measures and criminal histories. The themes of hostility and pseudo-intimacy were significant predictors of sexual recidivism. In addition, the pseudo-intimacy theme led to a significant increase in the incremental validity of the Static-99 actuarial risk assessment instrument for the prediction of sexual recidivism. The results indicate the potential utility and validity of crime scene behaviors in the applied risk assessment of sexual offenders. © The Author(s) 2015.

Post-transplant survival in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis patients concurrently listed for single and double lung transplantation.

Science.gov (United States)

Chauhan, Dhaval; Karanam, Ashwin B; Merlo, Aurelie; Tom Bozzay, P A; Zucker, Mark J; Seethamraju, Harish; Shariati, Nazly; Russo, Mark J

2016-05-01

Lung transplantation is a widely accepted treatment for patients with end-stage lung disease related to idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). However, there are conflicting data on whether double lung transplant (DLT) or single lung transplant (SLT) is the superior therapy in these patients. The purpose of this study was to determine whether actuarial post-transplant graft survival among IPF patients concurrently listed for DLT and SLT is greater for recipients undergoing the former or the latter. The United Network for Organ Sharing provided de-identified patient-level data. Analysis included lung transplant candidates with IPF listed between January 1, 2001 and December 31, 2009 (n = 3,411). The study population included 1,001 (29.3%) lung transplant recipients concurrently listed for DLT and SLT, all ≥18 years of age. The primary outcome measure was actuarial post-transplant graft survival, expressed in years. Among the study population, 433 (43.26%) recipients underwent SLT and 568 (56.74%) recipients underwent DLT. The analysis included 2,722.5 years at risk, with median graft survival of 5.31 years. On univariate (p = 0.317) and multivariate (p = 0.415) regression analyses, there was no difference in graft survival between DLT and SLT. Among IPF recipients concurrently listed for DLT and SLT, there is no statistical difference in actuarial graft survival between recipients undergoing DLT vs SLT. This analysis suggests that increased use of SLT for IPF patients may increase the availability of organs to other candidates, and thus increase the net benefit of these organs, without measurably compromising outcomes. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

ORIGINAL ARTICLES Epidemiology of HIV in South Africa - results ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The Nelson MandelaiHuman Sciences Research Council. (HSRC) study of HIV I AIDS5 ..... This study was funded by the Nelson Mandela Foundation, ... Cape Town: Centre for Actuarial Research, Medical Research Council and the Actuarial ...

29 CFR 4231.6 - Plan solvency tests.

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2010-07-01

.... The actuary may select as the amortization period either— (i) The first 25 plan years beginning on or... determined under the funding method and assumptions expected to be used by the plan actuary for purposes of...

Preoperative radiation therapy for muscle-invading bladder carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cox, J.A.; Greven, K.M.; Anscher, M.S.; Morgan, T.M.; Scott, J.

1991-01-01

This paper reports on low-dose and high-dose radiation therapy (RT) followed by cystectomy for bladder carcinoma that was evaluated for survival, failure patterns, and complications as these outcomes have been incompletely documented in the past. One hundred five patients with clinical stages T2-T4 (muscle-invading) transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder who completed preoperative RT followed by total cystectomy were evaluated. Eighty-five patients received 20-27 Gy in 4-7 fractions (group A). Twenty patients received 40-50 Gy in 20-28 fractions (group B). Actuarial 5-year survival was 45% and 29% (P = .06) for groups A and B, respectively; 6% of group A was stage T4 compared with 30% of group B. Five-year actuarial survival for patients with stages T2-T3 in groups A and B was 46% and 42%, respectively, while that for T4 was 33% and 0% in groups A and B, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that stage, grade, and presence of hydronephrosis independently affected survival. Five-year actuarial local control rates for T2, T3, and T4 were 93%, 93%, and 22%, respectively, with no significant difference between RT groups. Rates of distant metastasis and complications versus preoperative regime and stage were similar

Stereotactic Radiotherapy for Adrenal Gland Metastases: University of Florence Experience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casamassima, Franco; Livi, Lorenzo; Masciullo, Stefano; Menichelli, Claudia; Masi, Laura; Meattini, Icro; Bonucci, Ivano; Agresti, Benedetta; Simontacchi, Gabriele; Doro, Raffaela

2012-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate a retrospective single-institution outcome after hypofractionated stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) for adrenal metastases. Methods and Materials: Between February 2002 and December 2009, we treated 48 patients with SBRT for adrenal metastases. The median age of the patient population was 62.7 years (range, 43–77 years). In the majority of patients, the prescription dose was 36 Gy in 3 fractions (70% isodose, 17.14 Gy per fraction at the isocenter). Eight patients were treated with single-fraction stereotactic radiosurgery and forty patients with multi-fraction stereotactic radiotherapy. Results: Overall, the series of patients was followed up for a median of 16.2 months (range, 3–63 months). At the time of analysis, 20 patients were alive and 28 patients were dead. The 1- and 2-year actuarial overall survival rates were 39.7% and 14.5%, respectively. We recorded 48 distant failures and 2 local failures, with a median interval to local failure of 4.9 months. The actuarial 1-year disease control rate was 9%; the actuarial 1- and 2-year local control rate was 90%. Conclusion: Our retrospective study indicated that SBRT for the treatment of adrenal metastases represents a safe and effective option with a control rate of 90% at 2 years.

Interstitial radiation therapeutic techniques at Mount Vernon Hospital

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Denham, J.W.; Strickland, P.; Alderson, A.M.; Hudson, F.R.; Bennett, M.H.

1982-01-01

Retrospective analysis of 56 cases of carcinoma on the lateral border of the anterior two thirds of the tongue treated at Mount Vernon Hospital using radium needle implant alone yielded 5-year actuarial survivals of 75.3 per cent in 25 T1N0 cases and 81.8 per cent in 25 T2N0 cases. Five-year actuarial local recurrence of 17.5 per cent was recorded in the T1 group and 35 per cent in the T2 group. Local recurrences were attributed to failure of the implant to encompass extensions of the tumour along the lateral border or into the musculature of the tongue. Five-year actuarial local recurrence of 66.2 per cent was recorded in 18 patients with carcinoma of the breast treated by radium needle implant alone; 4 of these 9 local recurrences occurred at some distance from the treated area and could not be classed as marginal recurrences. A preliminary investigation carried out in 1981 indicated that significant improvements in source distribution, particularly at poorly accessible sites, could be achieved using afterloading techniques. In addition the use of 192 Ir as a source could result in improvements in staff protection. (Auth.)

What we do | Page 97 | IDRC - International Development Research ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

Actuarial Sciences Graduate Training Program (India-Waterloo). The explosive growth of India's economy has led to a proliferation of insurance companies and a dire need for actuarial professionals. India, Central Asia, Far East Asia, South Asia, Canada. PROJECT ...

Probability with applications to investments, insurance, and engineering

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Bean, Michael A

2009-01-01

This book covers the basic probability of distributions with an emphasis on applications from the areas of investments, insurance, and engineering. Written by a Fellow of the Casualty Actuarial Society and the Society of Actuaries with many years of experience as a university professor and industry practitioner, the book is suitable as a text for senior undergraduate and beginning graduate students in mathematics, statistics, actuarial science, finance, or engineering as well as a reference for practitioners in these fields. The book is particularly well suited for students preparing for profe

Gesellschaft fuer angewandte Mathematik und Mechanik, Scientific Annual Meeting, Universitaet Stuttgart, Federal Republic of Germany, Apr. 13-17, 1987, Reports

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Recent advances in the analytical and numerical treatment of physical and engineering problems are discussed in reviews and reports. Topics addressed include fluid mechanics, numerical methods for differential equations, FEM approaches, and boundary-element methods. Consideration is given to optimization, decision theory, stochastics, actuarial mathematics, applied mathematics and mathematical physics, and numerical analysis.

Management Sciences Division Annual Report (9th)

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1992-01-01

41 Actuarial Process Consolidation and Review ....................................... 43 How M alfunction Code Reduction...47 Sun W ork Stations ............................................................................... 48 Actuarial Process Consolidation and...Information System (WSMIS). Dyna-METRIC is used for wartime supply support capability assessments. The Aircraft Sustainability Model ( ASM ) is the

42 CFR 440.335 - Benchmark-equivalent health benefits coverage.

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2010-10-01

...) Aggregate actuarial value. Benchmark-equivalent coverage is health benefits coverage that has an aggregate... planning services and supplies and other appropriate preventive services, as designated by the Secretary... State for purposes of comparison in establishing the aggregate actuarial value of the benchmark...

The Role of Radiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Eun Kyung; Park, Charn Il; Kim, Jung Soo

1985-01-01

A retrospective analysis was undertaken of 46 patients who were referred with squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus during the period of March 1979 through October 1982, and who were treated by curative radiotherapy in the Department of Therapeutic Radiology Soul National University Hospital. The overall tow-year actuarial survival rate was 20%. Survival was analyzed with respect to the site of the cancer, its size, radiation dose, and degree of response. Patients with the best two-year survival rate are the ones who had the tumor no of more than 5cm in length(39.3%) or confined to the upper third of the esophagus (29.5%). An optimum radiation dose ranged from 1600 to 1700 rets. patients to complete response had 42.4% of two-year actuarial survival, but those to no response had 0% of survival

Has 3-D conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT) improved the local tumour control for stage I non-small cell lung cancer?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lagerwaard, Frank J.; Senan, Suresh; Meerbeeck, Jan P. van; Graveland, Wilfried J.

2002-01-01

Aims and background: The high local failure rates observed after radiotherapy in stage I non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) may be improved by the use of 3-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT). Materials and methods: The case-records of 113 patients who were treated with curative 3D CRT between 1991 and 1999 were analysed. No elective nodal irradiation was performed, and doses of 60 Gy or more, in once-daily fractions of between 2 and 3 Gy, were prescribed. Results: The median actuarial survival of patients was 20 months, with 1-, 3- and 5-year survival of 71, 25 and 12%, respectively. Local disease progression was the cause of death in 30% of patients, and 22% patients died from distant metastases. Grade 2-3 acute radiation pneumonitis (SWOG) was observed in 6.2% of patients. The median actuarial local progression-free survival (LPFS) was 27 months, with 85 and 43% of patients free from local progression at 1 and 3 years, respectively. Endobronchial tumour extension significantly influenced LPFS, both on univariate (P=0.023) and multivariate analysis (P=0.023). The median actuarial cause-specific survival (CSS) was 19 months, and the respective 1- and 3-year rates were 72 and 30%. Multivariate analysis showed T2 classification (P=0.017) and the presence of endobronchial tumour extension (P=0.029) to be adverse prognostic factors for CSS. On multivariate analysis, T-stage significantly correlated with distant failure (P=0.005). Conclusions: Local failure rates remain substantial despite the use of 3D CRT for stage I NSCLC. Additional improvements in local control can come about with the use of radiation dose escalation and approaches to address the problem of tumour mobility

Factors Predictive of Symptomatic Radiation Injury After Linear Accelerator-Based Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Intracerebral Arteriovenous Malformations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbert, Christopher; Moiseenko, Vitali; McKenzie, Michael; Redekop, Gary; Hsu, Fred; Gete, Ermias; Gill, Brad; Lee, Richard; Luchka, Kurt; Haw, Charles; Lee, Andrew; Toyota, Brian; Martin, Montgomery

2012-01-01

Purpose: To investigate predictive factors in the development of symptomatic radiation injury after treatment with linear accelerator–based stereotactic radiosurgery for intracerebral arteriovenous malformations and relate the findings to the conclusions drawn by Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC). Methods and Materials: Archived plans for 73 patients who were treated at the British Columbia Cancer Agency were studied. Actuarial estimates of freedom from radiation injury were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for analysis of incidence of radiation injury. Log–rank test was used to search for dosimetric parameters associated with freedom from radiation injury. Results: Symptomatic radiation injury was exhibited by 14 of 73 patients (19.2%). Actuarial rate of symptomatic radiation injury was 23.0% at 4 years. Most patients (78.5%) had mild to moderate deficits according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.0. On univariate analysis, lesion volume and diameter, dose to isocenter, and a V x for doses ≥8 Gy showed statistical significance. Only lesion diameter showed statistical significance (p 5 cm 3 and diameters >30 mm were significantly associated with the risk of radiation injury (p 12 also showed strong association with the incidence of radiation injury. Actuarial incidence of radiation injury was 16.8% if V 12 was 3 and 53.2% if >28 cm 3 (log–rank test, p = 0.001). Conclusions: This study confirms that the risk of developing symptomatic radiation injury after radiosurgery is related to lesion diameter and volume and irradiated volume. Results suggest a higher tolerance than proposed by QUANTEC. The widely differing findings reported in the literature, however, raise considerable uncertainties.

Factors Predictive of Symptomatic Radiation Injury After Linear Accelerator-Based Stereotactic Radiosurgery for Intracerebral Arteriovenous Malformations

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Herbert, Christopher, E-mail: cherbert@bccancer.bc.ca [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Moiseenko, Vitali [Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada); McKenzie, Michael [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Redekop, Gary [Division of Neurosurgery, Vancouver General Hospital, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Hsu, Fred [Department of Radiation Oncology, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Abbotsford, BC (Canada); Gete, Ermias; Gill, Brad; Lee, Richard; Luchka, Kurt [Department of Medical Physics, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Haw, Charles [Division of Neurosurgery, Vancouver General Hospital, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Lee, Andrew [Department of Neurosurgery, Royal Columbian Hospital, New Westminster, BC (Canada); Toyota, Brian [Division of Neurosurgery, Vancouver General Hospital, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Martin, Montgomery [Department of Medical Imaging, British Columbia Cancer Agency, Vancouver, BC (Canada)

2012-07-01

Purpose: To investigate predictive factors in the development of symptomatic radiation injury after treatment with linear accelerator-based stereotactic radiosurgery for intracerebral arteriovenous malformations and relate the findings to the conclusions drawn by Quantitative Analysis of Normal Tissue Effects in the Clinic (QUANTEC). Methods and Materials: Archived plans for 73 patients who were treated at the British Columbia Cancer Agency were studied. Actuarial estimates of freedom from radiation injury were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for analysis of incidence of radiation injury. Log-rank test was used to search for dosimetric parameters associated with freedom from radiation injury. Results: Symptomatic radiation injury was exhibited by 14 of 73 patients (19.2%). Actuarial rate of symptomatic radiation injury was 23.0% at 4 years. Most patients (78.5%) had mild to moderate deficits according to Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 4.0. On univariate analysis, lesion volume and diameter, dose to isocenter, and a V{sub x} for doses {>=}8 Gy showed statistical significance. Only lesion diameter showed statistical significance (p < 0.05) in a multivariate model. According to the log-rank test, AVM volumes >5 cm{sup 3} and diameters >30 mm were significantly associated with the risk of radiation injury (p < 0.01). The V{sub 12} also showed strong association with the incidence of radiation injury. Actuarial incidence of radiation injury was 16.8% if V{sub 12} was <28 cm{sup 3} and 53.2% if >28 cm{sup 3} (log-rank test, p = 0.001). Conclusions: This study confirms that the risk of developing symptomatic radiation injury after radiosurgery is related to lesion diameter and volume and irradiated volume. Results suggest a higher tolerance than proposed by QUANTEC. The widely differing findings reported in the literature, however, raise considerable uncertainties.

How healthy is South Africa's tnedical schemes industry? | Fourie ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An analysis of the membership demographics, the financial health and especially the sustainability of the South African medical schemes industry is presented. From the financial and in particular the actuarial analyses it is obvious that the current system is unsustainable, and if a private health care sector is to survive at all it ...

Long-term outcome of combined modality therapy in retroperitoneal and deep-trunk soft-tissue sarcoma: analysis of prognostic factors

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Youssef, Emad; Fontanesi, James; Mott, Michael; Kraut, Michael; Lucas, David; Mekhael, Hany; Ben-Josef, Edgar

2002-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the long-term outcome of surgery and postoperative radiotherapy (RT) in retroperitoneal and deep-trunk soft-tissue sarcoma, and to identify the prognostic factors for local control, disease-free survival, and overall survival. Methods and Materials: Between January 1980 and December 1998, 60 patients with nonmetastatic retroperitoneal and deep-trunk soft-tissue sarcoma were treated at Wayne State University using combined surgery and RT. The location was retroperitoneal in 38 patients (63%) and deep trunk in 22 (27%). Forty-six patients (76%) were treated for primary disease and 14 (24%) for recurrent disease. The resection margins were negative in 24 patients (40%), close in 3 (5%), and positive in 33 (55%; 18 microscopic and 15 macroscopic). The median tumor size was 8.6 cm (range 2-55). External beam RT (EBRT; median dose 5220 cGy) was given to 44 patients (73%) and combined EBRT (median dose 4200 cGy) and brachytherapy (median dose 1600 cGy) to 16 patients (27%). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were conducted to identify the possible associations between patient age, race, gender, tumor site, histologic features, grade, size, stage, surgical margin, RT dose, modality (EBRT vs. EBRT plus brachytherapy), and presentation (primary vs. recurrent) and disease control. Results: The actuarial 5- and 10-year disease-free survival rate was 53% and 44%, respectively. Disease-free survival was significantly associated with female gender on univariate analysis (67% for female patients and 37% for male patients at 5 years, p=0.05). On multivariate analysis, both gender and surgical margin had borderline significance (p=0.06). The actuarial local control rate was 71% and 54% at 5 and 10 years, respectively. The median time to local relapse was 10.2 months, with 75% of all failures occurring within 29 months. The surgical margin status was significantly associated with local control (78% for patients with negative or close margins vs

77 FR 10786 - Submission of Information Collection for OMB Review; Comment Request; Annual Financial and...

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2012-02-23

... Request; Annual Financial and Actuarial Information Reporting AGENCY: Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation..., of its collection of information for annual financial and actuarial information reporting under 29... Disclosure Division or calling 202-326-4040 during normal business hours. (TTY/TDD users may call the Federal...

Projecting long term medical spending growth.

Science.gov (United States)

Borger, Christine; Rutherford, Thomas F; Won, Gregory Y

2008-01-01

We present a dynamic general equilibrium model of the U.S. economy and the medical sector in which the adoption of new medical treatments is endogenous and the demand for medical services is conditional on the state of technology. We use this model to prepare 75-year medical spending forecasts and a projection of the Medicare actuarial balance, and we compare our results to those obtained from a method that has been used by government actuaries. Our baseline forecast predicts slower health spending growth in the long run and a lower Medicare actuarial deficit relative to the previous projection methodology.

Post-operative radiation therapy for advanced-stage oropharyngeal cancer.

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Hansen, Eric; Panwala, Kathryn; Holland, John

2002-11-01

Between 1985 and 1999, 43 patients with locally-advanced, resectable oropharyngeal cancer were treated with combined surgery and post-operative radiation therapy (RT) at Oregon Health and Science University. Five patients (12 per cent) had Stage III disease and 38 patients (88 per cent) had Stage IV disease. All patients had gross total resections of the primary tumour. Thirty-seven patients had neck dissections for regional disease. RT consisted of a mean tumour-bed dose of 63.0 Gy delivered in 1.8-2.0 Gy fractions over a mean of 49 days. At three- and five-years, the actuarial local control was 96 per cent and the actuarial local/regional control was 80 per cent. The three- and five-year actuarial rates of distant metastases were 41 per cent and 46 per cent, respectively. The actuarial overall survival at three- and five-years was 41 per cent and 34 per cent, respectively. The actuarial rates of progression-free survival were 49 per cent at three-years and 45 per cent at five years. Combined surgery and post-operative RT for advanced-stage oropharyngeal cancer results in excellent local/regional control. This particular group of patients experienced a high-rate of developing distant metastases.

Node-positive cervical cancer: impact of pelvic irradiation and patterns of failure

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stock, Richard G.; Chen, Alex S. J.; Flickinger, John C.; Kalnicki, Shalom; Seski, Jan

1995-01-01

Purpose: The roles of postoperative pelvic and prophylactic paraaortic irradiation in pelvic node positive cervical cancer are currently controversial. A retrospective study was undertaken to examine the effect of pelvic irradiation on pelvic control and survival and to analyze the patterns of recurrence to determine whether indications exist for prophylactic paraaortic irradiation. Methods and Materials: From 1964 to 1991, 143 cases of FIGO Stage I and II cervical cancer undergoing exploratory laparotomy, pelvic lymph node dissection, and radical hysterectomy had positive pelvic lymph nodes. Postoperatively, 108 cases were treated with whole pelvic irradiation while 35 patients were observed. Prophylactic paraaortic irradiation was not given. Results: Patients who received postoperative whole pelvic irradiation compared with those treated with radical hysterectomy alone had a significantly improved pelvic control rate, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival. The 5-year actuarial pelvic control rate was 78% vs. 45% (p = <0.0001), respectively. The 5-year actuarial DFS was 65% vs. 41% (p = 0.0004). The 5-year actuarial overall survival was 58% vs. 46% (p 0.02). In multivariate analysis, pelvic irradiation continued to show a positive effect on DFS (p = 0.0001) and overall survival (p = 0.0035). Lymphatic invasion and the total number of positive lymph nodes were the only other independent predictors of overall survival and DFS. The actuarial 5-year pelvic, paraaortic, and distant failure rates were 30%, 10%, and 28%, respectively. An isolated first recurrence in the paraaortic nodes occurred in only three cases. Conclusion: Postoperative pelvic irradiation significantly improves pelvic control, DFS, and overall survival, and should be used in patients with early stage cervical cancer and pathologically proven pelvic nodal metastases. The low incidence of isolated paraaortic nodal failure calls into question the value of routine prophylactic paraaortic

Node-positive cervical cancer: impact of pelvic irradiation and patterns of failure

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Stock, Richard G; Chen, Alex S. J.; Flickinger, John C; Kalnicki, Shalom; Seski, Jan

1995-01-01

Purpose: The roles of postoperative pelvic and prophylactic paraaortic irradiation in pelvic node positive cervical cancer are currently controversial. A retrospective study was undertaken to examine the effect of pelvic irradiation on pelvic control and survival and to analyze the patterns of recurrence to determine whether indications exist for prophylactic paraaortic irradiation. Methods and Materials: From 1964 to 1991, 143 cases of FIGO Stage I and II cervical cancer undergoing exploratory laparotomy, pelvic lymph node dissection, and radical hysterectomy had positive pelvic lymph nodes. Postoperatively, 108 cases were treated with whole pelvic irradiation while 35 patients were observed. Prophylactic paraaortic irradiation was not given. Results: Patients who received postoperative whole pelvic irradiation compared with those treated with radical hysterectomy alone had a significantly improved pelvic control rate, disease-free survival (DFS), and overall survival. The 5-year actuarial pelvic control rate was 78% vs. 45% (p = <0.0001), respectively. The 5-year actuarial DFS was 65% vs. 41% (p = 0.0004). The 5-year actuarial overall survival was 58% vs. 46% (p 0.02). In multivariate analysis, pelvic irradiation continued to show a positive effect on DFS (p = 0.0001) and overall survival (p = 0.0035). Lymphatic invasion and the total number of positive lymph nodes were the only other independent predictors of overall survival and DFS. The actuarial 5-year pelvic, paraaortic, and distant failure rates were 30%, 10%, and 28%, respectively. An isolated first recurrence in the paraaortic nodes occurred in only three cases. Conclusion: Postoperative pelvic irradiation significantly improves pelvic control, DFS, and overall survival, and should be used in patients with early stage cervical cancer and pathologically proven pelvic nodal metastases. The low incidence of isolated paraaortic nodal failure calls into question the value of routine prophylactic paraaortic

All projects related to | Page 363 | IDRC - International Development ...

International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

2009-09-30

The explosive growth of India's economy has led to a proliferation of insurance companies and a dire need for actuarial professionals. Start Date: September 30, 2009. End Date: April 1, 2012. Topic: INSURANCE, ACTUARIES, TRAINING, HIGHER EDUCATION. Region: India, Central Asia, Far East Asia, South Asia, ...

29 CFR 4010.6 - Information to be filed.

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2010-07-01

... DISCLOSURE REQUIREMENTS ANNUAL FINANCIAL AND ACTUARIAL INFORMATION REPORTING § 4010.6 Information to be filed... (identifying information), § 4010.8 (plan actuarial information) and § 4010.9 (financial information) with... financial information that is necessary to determine plan assets and liabilities for any period through the...

29 CFR Appendix to Part 4007 - Policy Guidelines On Premium Penalties

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2010-07-01

... outside parties. In some cases an accountant, actuary, lawyer, pension consultant, or other individual or... outside parties. If an accountant, actuary, lawyer, pension consultant, or other individual or firm that... assigned responsibilities. Thus, there may be reasonable cause for a small organization's failure to pay a...

75 FR 47452 - Civilian Health and Medical Program of the Uniformed Services (CHAMPUS); TRICARE Retired Reserve...

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2010-08-06

... population in order to make the underlying group actuarially appropriate. The historical costs were trended... order to make the underlying group actuarially appropriate. The historical costs were trended forward to... members pay to purchase these benefits will represent the full cost as determined on an appropriate...

76 FR 32242 - Federal Employees' Retirement System; Normal Cost Percentages

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2011-06-03

... generally accepted actuarial practices and standards (using dynamic assumptions). Subpart D of part 841 of... changes to the economic assumptions used in the dynamic actuarial valuations of FERS. The Board reviewed... by the federal retirement programs administered by the U.S. Department of Defense and the Social...

GOVERNING BOARD OF THE PENSION FUND

CERN Document Server

2001-01-01

The Governing Board met on 4 September in its first session since the summer break. On this occasion, the Board invited the two actuaries entrusted with the three-yearly actuarial review of the Fund, MP Actuaires SA (Geneva) and AON Consulting (Brussels), to present their results. Although the two studies were conducted independently and simultaneously, the Governing Board noted that the underlying methodology was remarkably similar in both cases. Both actuaries adopted a stochastic approach, both performed analyses based on the closed-fund method and on the open-fund method, and both made an evaluation of the risks for the appreciation of the Fund's financial position. This methodology produced consistent results which, while not always identical, are superimposable in terms of their order of magnitude. Under the closed-fund method, which involves assessing the Fund's financial situation as if it were closed on the date of calculation without any new members being admitted, both actuaries conclude that the s...

USSR Report, Cybernetics, Computers and Automation Technology

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1987-03-31

version of the system was tested by adapting PAL-11 and MACRO-11 assembly code for the "Elektronika=60" and "Elektronika-60M" computers; ASM -86 for the...GS, "On the Results of Evaluation of Insurance Payments in Collective and State Farms and Private Households," the actuarial analysis tables based

Pawcatuck River and Narragansett Bay Drainage Basins Water and Related Land Resources Study. Big River Reservoir Project. Volume II. Appendix A-G.

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1981-07-01

actuarial rate are determined and flood plain zoning is enacted. A flood hazard analysis of the Pocasset River in Johnston has been completed by the Soil...RELATED LAND ESOURCES STUDY TPANOWMSON MAIN CNlmlONCOOT CUMV ENA ________ _____ AW B- ANONO o EOF " asmS TAPA MTIONN. COS6 PLATE NO 6-16 " : Ei 2 wm (L ca 0

78 FR 17606 - Common Crop Insurance Regulations; Arizona-California Citrus Crop Insurance Provisions

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2013-03-22

... definition of ``crop year'' by removing the term ``citrus'' and adding the term ``insured'' in its place; 0 v... is planning to replace the category of ``type'' in the actuarial documents with four categories named... category of ``practice'' in the actuarial documents with four categories named ``cropping practice...

76 FR 77270 - Proposed Submission of Information Collection for OMB Review; Comment Request; Annual Financial...

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2011-12-12

...; Comment Request; Annual Financial and Actuarial Information Reporting AGENCY: Pension Benefit Guaranty... financial and actuarial information reporting under 29 CFR Part 4010 (OMB control number 1212- 0049; expires... hours. (TTY/ TDD users may call the Federal relay service toll-free at 1-(800) 877- 8339 and ask to be...

76 FR 19360 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

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2011-04-07

... be very technical in nature and will focus on the actuarial and economic assumptions and methods by... discussion is expected to focus on highly technical aspects of estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics that they choose to discuss. Procedure and...

76 FR 36539 - Office of the Assistant Secretary for Planning and Evaluation; Medicare Program; Meeting of the...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-06-22

... discussion is expected to be very technical in nature and will focus on the actuarial and economic... discussion is expected to focus on highly technical aspects of estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics that they choose to discuss. Procedure and...

76 FR 52955 - Medicare Program; Meeting of the Technical Advisory Panel on Medicare Trustee Reports

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-24

... Panel's discussion is expected to be very technical in nature and will focus on the actuarial and... discussion is expected to focus on highly technical aspects of estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics that they choose to discuss. Procedure and...

76 FR 58514 - Medicare Program; Meeting of the Technical Advisory Panel on Medicare Trustee Reports

Science.gov (United States)

2011-09-21

... to be very technical in nature and will focus on the actuarial and economic assumptions and methods... discussion is expected to focus on highly technical aspects of estimation involving economics and actuarial science. Panelists are not restricted, however, in the topics that they choose to discuss. Procedure and...

Soldier Decision-Making for Allocation of Intelligence, Surveillance, and Reconnaissance Assets

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-01

Judgments; also called Algoritmic or Statistical Judgements Computer Science , Psychology, and Statistics Actuarial or algorithmic...Jan. 2011. [17] R. M. Dawes, D. Faust, and P. E. Meehl, “Clinical versus Actuarial Judgment,” Science , vol. 243, no. 4899, pp. 1668–1674, 1989. [18...School of Computer Science

Prognostic factors in adult soft-tissue sarcomas of the head and neck

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le, Quynh-Thu X.; Fu, Karen K.; Kroll, Stew; Fitts, Linda; Massullo, Vincent; Ferrell, Linda; Kaplan, Michael J.; Phillips, Theodore L.

1997-01-01

Purpose: The main objectives of this study were (a) to review the treatment results of primary head and neck soft-tissue sarcoma at our institution, (b) to identify important prognostic factors in local control and survival, and (c) to assess the efficacy of salvage therapy. Methods and Materials: Sixty-five patients were treated at the University of California, San Francisco, between 1961 and 1993. Seventeen patients (27%) had low-grade, 10 (15%) had intermediate-grade, and 38 (58%) had high-grade sarcomas. Tumors were > 5 cm in 35 patients. Local management consisted of surgery alone in 14 patients (22%), surgery and radiotherapy in 40 (61%), and radiotherapy alone in 11 (17%) patients. The median follow-up was 64 months. Results: The 5-year actuarial local control rate of the entire group was 66%. Tumor size and grade were important predictors for local control on multivariate analysis. The actuarial local control rate at 5 years was 92% for T1 vs. 40% for T2 primaries (p = 0.004), and 80% for Grade 1-2 vs. 48% for Grade 3 tumors (p 0.01). None of the patients treated with radiotherapy alone with a dose of 50-65 Gy were controlled locally. Combined radiotherapy and surgery appeared to yield superior local control compared to surgery alone (77% vs. 59%); however, the difference was not statistically significant. The 5-year actuarial overall and cause-specific survivals were 56% and 60%, respectively. Unfavorable prognostic factors for cause-specific survival on multivariate analysis were age > 55 (p = 0.009), high tumor grade (p 0.0002), inadequate surgery (p = 0.008), and positive surgical margins (p 0.0009). In patients who underwent salvage therapy for treatment failure, the 5-year actuarial survival after salvage treatment was 26%. Conclusion: Tumor size and grade were important predictors for local control. Age, grade, adequacy of surgery, and status of surgical margins were significant prognostic factors for survival. There was a trend of improved local

Prognostic value of anti-Epstein-Barr virus antibodies in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC)

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Liu, Mu-Tai; Yeh, Chi-Yuan [Chang-Hua Christian Hospital, Chang-Hua (Taiwan, Province of China)

1998-03-01

Eighty patients with histological diagnoses of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) were referred to Chang-Hua Christian Hospital for curative radiotherapy from 1985 to 1995. A mean dose of 7,020 cGy in 39 fractions was delivered to the primary tumor using a telecobalt-60 unit or 6-10 MV X-ray linear accelerator. Pre- and postradiotherapy serum levels of anti-Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)/VCA IgG and IgA were determined for all patients using the indirect immunoperoxidase assay. Multivariate analysis was done to determine which factors affected the patients` treatment outcome and survival. Five patients were excluded from this study due to incomplete radiotherapy, leaving 75 patients eligible for analysis. Overall local control was 77.3%, with a mean disease-free interval of 19.7 months. Factors affecting local control included radiation dose and pretreatment anti-EBV/VCA IgG titer. The overall 5-year actuarial survival for the 75 patients was 75%, with a median survival of 129.5 months. The 5-year actuarial survival rates for stage I+II, III, and IV patients were 90%, 40%, and 45%, respectively. Prognostic factors for survival included tumor histological type and pretreatment anti-EBV/VCA IgA titer, while prognostic factors for local control included total radiation dose received and pretreatment anti-EBV/VCA IgG titer. We found that there was a significant difference in the geometric mean titer of anti-EBV/VCA IgA antibodies before and after radiotherapy. Prognostic factors affecting NPC patients` actuarial survival included tumor histology and pretreatment IgA titer, while prognostic factors for local control of NPC included total radiation dose received and pretreatment IgG titer. (K.H.)

Combined-modality therapy for patients with regional nodal metastases from melanoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballo, Matthew T.; Ross, Merrick I.; Cormier, Janice N.; Myers, Jeffrey N.; Lee, Jeffrey E.; Gershenwald, Jeffrey E.; Hwu, Patrick; Zagars, Gunar K.

2006-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the outcome and patterns of failure for patients with nodal metastases from melanoma treated with combined-modality therapy. Methods and Materials: Between 1983 and 2003, 466 patients with nodal metastases from melanoma were managed with lymphadenectomy and radiation, with or without systemic therapy. Surgery was a therapeutic procedure for clinically apparent nodal disease in 434 patients (regionally advanced nodal disease). Adjuvant radiation was generally delivered with a hypofractionated regimen. Adjuvant systemic therapy was delivered to 154 patients. Results: With a median follow-up of 4.2 years, 252 patients relapsed and 203 patients died of progressive disease. The actuarial 5-year disease-specific, disease-free, and distant metastasis-free survival rates were 49%, 42%, and 44%, respectively. By multivariate analysis, increasing number of involved lymph nodes and primary ulceration were associated with an inferior 5-year actuarial disease-specific and distant metastasis-free survival. Also, the number of involved lymph nodes was associated with the development of brain metastases, whereas thickness was associated with lung metastases, and primary ulceration was associated with liver metastases. The actuarial 5-year regional (in-basin) control rate for all patients was 89%, and on multivariate analysis there were no patient or disease characteristics associated with inferior regional control. The risk of lymphedema was highest for those patients with groin lymph node metastases. Conclusions: Although regional nodal disease can be satisfactorily controlled with lymphadenectomy and radiation, the risk of distant metastases and melanoma death remains high. A management approach to these patients that accounts for the competing risks of distant metastases, regional failure, and long-term toxicity is needed

Prognostic value of anti-Epstein-Barr virus antibodies in nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Liu, Mu-Tai; Yeh, Chi-Yuan

1998-01-01

Eighty patients with histological diagnoses of nasopharyngeal cancer (NPC) were referred to Chang-Hua Christian Hospital for curative radiotherapy from 1985 to 1995. A mean dose of 7,020 cGy in 39 fractions was delivered to the primary tumor using a telecobalt-60 unit or 6-10 MV X-ray linear accelerator. Pre- and postradiotherapy serum levels of anti-Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)/VCA IgG and IgA were determined for all patients using the indirect immunoperoxidase assay. Multivariate analysis was done to determine which factors affected the patients' treatment outcome and survival. Five patients were excluded from this study due to incomplete radiotherapy, leaving 75 patients eligible for analysis. Overall local control was 77.3%, with a mean disease-free interval of 19.7 months. Factors affecting local control included radiation dose and pretreatment anti-EBV/VCA IgG titer. The overall 5-year actuarial survival for the 75 patients was 75%, with a median survival of 129.5 months. The 5-year actuarial survival rates for stage I+II, III, and IV patients were 90%, 40%, and 45%, respectively. Prognostic factors for survival included tumor histological type and pretreatment anti-EBV/VCA IgA titer, while prognostic factors for local control included total radiation dose received and pretreatment anti-EBV/VCA IgG titer. We found that there was a significant difference in the geometric mean titer of anti-EBV/VCA IgA antibodies before and after radiotherapy. Prognostic factors affecting NPC patients' actuarial survival included tumor histology and pretreatment IgA titer, while prognostic factors for local control of NPC included total radiation dose received and pretreatment IgG titer. (K.H.)

Capital Allocation for Insurance Companies: Issues and Methods

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Jens Perch; Poulsen, Rolf; Mumford, Paul

2010-01-01

to a close cooperation between actuarial and financial departments with a particular view to the ability of the Actuary to separate financial risk from insurance risk and the ability of the finance department to hedge the right amount of their complicated financial risk at a good price. We also introduce...

76 FR 53851 - Federal Housing Administration (FHA): Suspension of Section 238(c) Single-Family Mortgage...

Science.gov (United States)

2011-08-30

... actuarially sound, and to prescribe terms and conditions relating to the insurance found to be necessary and... conform to other FHA programs because HUD determined that ``the actuarial experience under Section 238(c... there is a demand for this program and that military families would be better served by this program...

Short-Term Results of Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer with Curative Radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahn, Sung Ja; Park, Seung Jin; Chung, Woong Ki; Nah, Byung Sik

1990-01-01

A retrospective analysis was performed on 102 patients with non-small cell lung cancer who received the curative radiotherapy from August 1985 to October 1988 at the Department of Therapeutic Radiology of Chonnam University Hospital. The follow-up period was ranged from 1 to 37 months and the median follow-up time was 15 months. The actuarial 1 and 2 year survival rate of all the patients was 28% and 5%, respectively. The median survival was 10 months for stage II, 6 months for stage III A, and 9 for III B and the actuarial 2 year survival tate was 12.5%, 12.1%, and 0% respectively. The treatment failure was identified in 32 patients and the locoregional failure was seem in 9 patients (28%) and the distant failure in 23 patients (72%). The initial performance status was related to the survival with statistical significance (p 0.05)

The Result of Radiotherapy in Esophageal Cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Park, Charn Il; Choi, Eun Kyung; Chung, Woong Ki; Bang, Yung Jue; Kim, Noe Kyeong

1988-01-01

During the period between March 1979 and August 1986, 177 patients with carcinoma of the esophagus were treated with radiotherapy in the Department of Therapeutic Radiology, SNUH. Among these, 25 patients who had incomplete treatment were excluded. So a retrospective analysis was undertaken of 152 patients who were treated by curative radiotherapy. More than 80% showed response: Complete remission (22%), partial remission (63%) and no response (15%). The overall two-year and five-year actuarial survival rate were 22.9% and 13.3% respectively. Prognostic factor was analyzed by it site, size, T stage, and tumor response. Patients with the best five-year survival rate were those who had the tumor no more than 5 cm in length (17%) or confined to the upper third of the esophagus (26.6%). Complete responders had 34.3% of 5-year actuarial survival, but no responders had 0% of survival

South African Actuarial Journal: Advanced Search

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Search tips: Search terms are case-insensitive; Common words are ignored; By default only articles containing all terms in the query are returned (i.e., AND is implied); Combine multiple words with OR to find articles containing either term; e.g., education OR research; Use parentheses to create more complex queries; e.g., ...

Small dependencies and large actuarial risks

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albers, Willem/Wim; Kallenberg, W.C.M.; Lukocius, V.

2006-01-01

Methods for computing risk measures such as stop-loss premiums tacitly assume independence of the underlying individual risks. From earlier studies it is already known that this assumption can lead to huge errors even when only small dependencies occur. In the present paper a general model is

"Fair" Mathematics in Assessing Delictual Damages | Steynberg ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

In assessing delictual damages the plaintiff is burdened with the duty to prove loss with a preponderance of probability, including uncertain future loss. In quantifying such a claim an actuary is often used to make actuarial calculations based on proven facts and realistic assumptions regarding the future. The role of the ...

Characteristics of the Navy Laboratory Warfare Center Technical Workforce

Science.gov (United States)

2013-09-29

Mathematics and Information Science (M&IS) Actuarial Science 1510 Computer Science 1550 Gen. Math & Statistics 1501 Mathematics 1520 Operations...Admin. Network Systems & Data Communication Analysts Actuaries Mathematicians Operations Research Analyst Statisticians Social Science (SS...workforce was sub-divided into six broad occupational groups: Life Science , Physical Science , Engineering, Mathematics, Computer Science and Information

Risk Assessment Stability: A Revalidation Study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment Instrument

Science.gov (United States)

Schwalbe, Craig S.

2009-01-01

The actuarial method is the gold standard for risk assessment in child welfare, juvenile justice, and criminal justice. It produces risk classifications that are highly predictive and that may be robust to sampling error. This article reports a revalidation study of the Arizona Risk/Needs Assessment instrument, an actuarial instrument for juvenile…

26 CFR 301.6652-3 - Failure to file information with respect to employee retirement benefit plan.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-04-01

... not exceed $5,000. (4) Actuarial statement in case of mergers. The plan administrator (within the... is a failure to file the actuarial statement described in section 6058(b) at the time and in the... as a tax upon the issuance of notice and demand therefor. (e) Effective dates—(1) Annual registration...

7 CFR 407.13 - Group risk plan for forage.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-01-01

... acres of hay in the county, as specified in the actuarial documents. The actuarial documents will... a period for forage regrowth. 2. Crop Insured The insured crop will be the forage types shown on the... the Group Risk Plan Common Policy, acreage seeded to forage after July 1 of the previous crop year...

Five-Year Analysis of Treatment Efficacy and Cosmesis by the American Society of Breast Surgeons MammoSite Breast Brachytherapy Registry Trial in Patients Treated With Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vicini, Frank; Beitsch, Peter; Quiet, Coral; Gittleman, Mark; Zannis, Vic; Fine, Ricky; Whitworth, Pat; Kuerer, Henry; Haffty, Bruce; Keisch, Martin; Lyden, Maureen

2011-01-01

Purpose: To present 5-year data on treatment efficacy, cosmetic results, and toxicities for patients enrolled on the American Society of Breast Surgeons MammoSite breast brachytherapy registry trial. Methods and Materials: A total of 1440 patients (1449 cases) with early-stage breast cancer receiving breast-conserving therapy were treated with the MammoSite device to deliver accelerated partial-breast irradiation (APBI) (34 Gy in 3.4-Gy fractions). Of 1449 cases, 1255 (87%) had invasive breast cancer (IBC) (median size, 10 mm) and 194 (13%) had ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) (median size, 8 mm). Median follow-up was 54 months. Results: Thirty-seven cases (2.6%) developed an ipsilateral breast tumor recurrence (IBTR), for a 5-year actuarial rate of 3.80% (3.86% for IBC and 3.39% for DCIS). Negative estrogen receptor status (p = 0.0011) was the only clinical, pathologic, or treatment-related variable associated with IBTR for patients with IBC and young age (<50 years; p = 0.0096) and positive margin status (p = 0.0126) in those with DCIS. The percentage of breasts with good/excellent cosmetic results at 60 months (n = 371) was 90.6%. Symptomatic breast seromas were reported in 13.0% of cases, and 2.3% developed fat necrosis. A subset analysis of the first 400 consecutive cases enrolled was performed (352 with IBC, 48 DCIS). With a median follow-up of 60.5 months, the 5-year actuarial rate of IBTR was 3.04%. Conclusion: Treatment efficacy, cosmesis, and toxicity 5 years after treatment with APBI using the MammoSite device are good and similar to those reported with other forms of APBI with similar follow-up.

Linac-based radiosurgery of cerebral melanoma metastases. Analysis of 122 metastases treated in 64 patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herfarth, K.K.; Pirzkall, A.; Izwekowa, O.; Wannenmacher, M.; Thilmann, C.; Debus, J.; Delorme, S.; Hofmann, U.; Schadendorf, D.; Zierhut, D.

2003-01-01

Purpose: Stereotactic radiosurgery is an alternative option to neurosurgical excision in the management of patients with brain metastases. We retrospectively analyzed patients with brain metastases of malignant melanoma who were treated at our institution for outcome and prognostic factors. Patients and Methods: 64 patients with 122 cerebral metastases were treated with stereotactic radiosurgery between 1986 and 2000. Twelve patients (19%) showed neurologic symptoms at the time of treatment, and 46 patients (72%) had extracerebral tumor manifestation at that time. The median dose to the 80% isodose line, prescribed to encompass the tumor margin, was 20 Gy (range, 15-22 Gy). Results: Neurologic symptoms improved in five of twelve symptomatic patients. 41 patients remained asymptomatic or unchanged in their neurologic symptoms. Only five patients (8%) temporarily worsened neurologically after therapy despite no signs of tumor progression. With a mean follow-up time of 9.4 months, actuarial local control was 81% after 1 year. There was a statistically significant dose and size dependency of local tumor control. Median actuarial survival after treatment was 10.6 months. Patients without extracerebral tumor manifestation showed a superior survival (p = 0.04). Conclusions: Despite high local tumor control rates, the prognosis of patients with cerebral metastases of malignant melanoma remains poor. Stereotactic radiosurgery has the potential of stabilizing or improving neurologic symptoms in these patients in a palliative setting. (orig.)

[The kidney transplantation from the ABO-incompatible donors].

Science.gov (United States)

Goriaĭnov, V A; Kaabak, M M; Babenko, N N; Shishlo, L A; Morozova, M M; Ragimov, A A; Dashkova, N G; Salimov, É L

2012-01-01

The experience of 28 allotransplantations of ABO-incompatible kidneys was compared with the treatment results of 38 ABO-compatible renal transplantations. The transplanted kidney function, morphological changes of the transplanted kidney and the comparative analysis of actuary survival in both groups showed no significant difference. The results of the study prove the validity of the kidney transplantation from the ABO-incompatible donors.

The Impact on Women on the Removal of Gender as a Rating ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Insurers use actuarial statistics as rating variables to differentiate and distinguish for the purposes of risk classification. They justify their use of actuarial statistics due to its accuracy as a predictor of risk. South African motor-vehicle insurers use gender, inter alia, as a rating variable to classify risks into certain classes and to ...

Isolated local-regional recurrence following mastectomy for adenocarcinoma of the breast treated with radiation therapy alone or combined with surgery and/or chemotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mendenhall, N.P.; Devine, J.W.; Mendenhall, W.M.; Million, R.R.; Bland, K.I.; Copeland, E.M. III

1988-01-01

The results of radiation therapy alone or combined with surgery and/or chemotherapy are reported for 47 patients who presented with local and/or regional recurrence without evidence of distant metastases following initial management of adenocarcinoma of the breast with radical or modified radical mastectomy (43) or simple mastectomy (4). Patients were treated between October 1964 and March 1983 at the University of Florida; all have a 2-year minimum follow-up and 42/47 (89%) have had follow-up for ≥5 years. The overall actuarial local-regional control rates were 80% at 2 years, 68% at 5 years, and 61% at 10 years. The 5-year actuarial local-regional control rates by site and extent of disease were as follows: single chest wall nodule, 92%; multiple chest wall nodules, 49%; regional lymph nodes, 66%; and multiple sites, 64%. The 5- and 10-year actuarial determinate disease-free survival rates for all patients were 41 and 17%, respectively. The 5- and 10-year actuarial survival rates for all patients were 50 and 34%, respectively. 22 refs.; 5 figs.; 5 tabs

GOVERNING BOARD OF THE PENSION FUND

CERN Multimedia

2002-01-01

The Governing Board met on 9 April and 4 June. The first of these two meetings was essentially devoted to the examination and approval of the draft 2001 Annual Report of the Pension Fund and the allocation of the year's results. In the latter connection, the Governing Board decided, on the basis of the recommendations by the two firms of actuaries involved in the last actuarial review, that the amounts previously referred to in the accounts as "reserves" should be considered as part of the Fund's capital. The description of part of the Fund's assets as reserves as opposed to capital hitherto had been a matter of form rather than anything more fundamental. The Governing Board therefore formally approved this change in the Fund's accounting practices for the sake of consistency between the Accounts of the Fund and the approach adopted by the actuaries in the actuarial review. Among the other items examined during the meeting, the Governing Board approved a new strategic allocation for investments, which essenti...

Prognostic factors for differentiated thyroid carcinoma in young patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Handkiewicz-Junak, D.; Kalemba, B.; Roskosz, J.; Kukulska, A.; Puch, Z.; Jarzab, B.; Wloch, J.; Lange, D.

2001-01-01

Standard therapy of differentiated thyroid cancer (DTC) comprises thyroid surgery, radioiodine treatment and L-thyroxine suppressive treatment. However, in the case of young patients the extent of surgery and the need for radioiodine treatment are questioned by some authors on the basis of the overall good prognosis in this group. The aim of the study was to perform a retrospective analysis of prognostic factors for differentiated thyroid cancer in patients in the first three decades of their life. The study included 274 patients who were younger than 28 years at the day of diagnosis of DTC and were observed for a mean time of 5 years. Uni- and multivariate analysis of prognostic factors for disease - free survival was performed with Cox's regression method. The actuarial survival rate was 100%, the 5 and 10-year actuarial disease free survival was 85% and 75%, respectively. In a multivariate analysis lymph node metastases, the extent of surgery and radioiodine therapy were estimated as statistically significant, independent prognostic factors for DTC relapse. Radical treatment of DTC more advanced than pT1NOMO should include total thyroidectomy and postoperative complementary radioiodine therapy. Such procedure is also justified in young patients, as it ensures a decrease of the risk of recurrence. (author)

The relation of CT-determined tumor parameters and local and regional outcome of tonsillar cancer after definitive radiation treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermans, Robert; Op de beeck, Katya; Bogaert, Walter van den; Rijnders, Alexis; Staelens, Lorenzo; Feron, Michel; Bellon, Erwin

2001-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the value of CT-derived tumor parameters as predictor of local and regional outcome of tonsillar squamous cell carcinoma treated by definitive radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: The pretreatment CT studies of 112 patients with tonsillar squamous cell carcinoma were reviewed. After redigitizing the films, primary and nodal tumor volume was calculated with the summation-of-areas technique. The nodal CT aspect was graded using a 3-point scale (homogenous, inhomogeneous, and necrotic). Mean follow-up time was 33 months. Actuarial statistical analysis of local and regional outcome was done for each of the covariates; multivariate analysis was performed using Cox's proportional hazards model. Results: In the actuarial analysis, CT-determined primary tumor volume was significantly correlated with local recurrence rate (p<0.05) when all patients were considered, but primary tumor volume did not predict local control within the T2, T3, and T4 category. CT-determined nodal volume was significantly related to regional outcome (p<0.01), but nodal density was not. Total tumor volume was not significantly related to locoregional outcome (p=0.1). In the multivariate analysis, the T and N categories were the independent predictors of local and regional outcomes, respectively. Conclusion: Compared to other head-and-neck sites, primary and nodal tumor volume have only marginal predictive value regarding local and regional outcome after radiation therapy in tonsillar cancer

Value of computed tomography as outcome predictor of supraglottic squamous cell carcinoma treated by definitive radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hermans, Robert; Bogaert, Walter van den; Rijnders, Alexis; Baert, Albert L.

1999-01-01

Purpose: To investigate the value of several CT-derived tumor parameters as predictors of local outcome of supraglottic squamous cell carcinoma treated by definitive radiation therapy. Methods and Materials: The pretreatment CT studies of 103 patients with supraglottic squamous cell carcinoma were reviewed for tumoral involvement of specific laryngeal anatomic subsites and extralaryngeal tumor spread. After redigitizing the films, tumor volume was calculated with the summation-of-areas technique. Mean follow-up time was 3.4 years. Actuarial statistical analysis of local and locoregional outcome was done for each of the covariates; multivariate analysis was performed using Cox's proportional hazards model. Results: In the actuarial analysis CT-determined primary tumor volume was significantly correlated with local recurrence rate (p < 0.001). Degree of involvement of the paraglottic space at the level of the true vocal cord (p < 0.05) and subglottic extension (p < 0.001) were also significantly correlated with local recurrence rate. In the multivariate analysis, only degree of involvement of the preepiglottic space (p < 0.01) and subglottic extension (p < 0.01) were found to be independent predictors of local recurrence. Total tumor volume was the strongest independent predictor of locoregional failure (p < 0.01). Conclusions: CT-determined tumor parameters are strong predictors of local and locoregional outcome of supraglottic carcinoma treated by definitive irradiation

Improved survival after rectal cancer in Denmark

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Bülow, S; Harling, H; Iversen, L H

2010-01-01

Objective In 1995, an analysis showed an inferior prognosis after rectal cancer in Denmark compared with the other Scandinavian countries. The Danish Colorectal Cancer Group (DCCG) was established with the aim of improving the prognosis, and in this study we present a survival analysis of patients...... treated from 1994 to 2006. Method The study was based on the National Rectal Cancer Registry and the National Colorectal Cancer Database, supplemented with data from the Central Population Registry. The analysis included actuarial overall and relative survival. Results A total of 10 632 patients were...

Governing Board of the Pension Fund

CERN Multimedia

2007-01-01

The Governing Board of the Pension Fund held its 154th and 155th meetings on 13 and 26 June 2007 respectively. At the first of these two meetings, the Governing Board Chairman Professor F. Ferrini stated that a steering committee had been set up, under his own chairmanship, to examine the Fund’s IT issues. This Committee had decided to avail itself of the consultancy services of an independent audit company with recognised expertise in the IT field and that the latter should undertake a study of the Fund’s present IT situation, review its operational needs, offer a comparative analysis of the different solutions and submit an overall report and conclusions on the advantages and disadvantages of the various possible solutions. At the same meeting, the Governing Board was informed of the activities of the Working Group on Actuarial Matters. The Board heard that the results of the three-yearly actuarial review would be presented at its September meeting and that the Board�...

Analysis of failure following definitive radiotherapy for invasive transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Mameghan, Hedy; Fisher, Richard; Mameghan, Jill; Brook, Susan

1995-01-15

Purpose: To assess prognostic factors for bladder relapse and distant failure following definitive radiotherapy for invasive transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder. Methods and Materials: Retrospective review of patients treated in the period 1977 to 1990 by definitive radiotherapy. The factors studied included age, sex, T stage, histological grade, tumor multiplicity, ureteric obstruction, total radiation dose, and use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The endpoints studied were bladder relapse and distant failure. Results: There were 342 patients with a mean follow-up time of 7.9 years. Bladder relapse was observed in 159 patients. The overall actuarial bladder relapse rate at 5 years was 55% (SE = 3%). Prognostic factors for a higher bladder relapse rate were: tumor multiplicity (p < 0.001), presence of ureteric obstruction (p = 0.001), and higher T stage (p 0.044). Distant failure occurred in 39 patients. The overall actuarial distant failure rate at 5 years was 28% (SE = 3%). Prognostic factors for a higher distant failure rate were: ureteric obstruction (p = 0.003) and higher T stage (p = 0.030). Conclusion: In our study, patients with invasive bladder TCC fell into distinct prognostic groups determined by the three independent factors, ureteric obstruction, tumor multiplicity, and T stage. These factors provided estimated risks of bladder relapse by 5 years which ranged from 34% to 91%. Knowledge of these prognostic factors can help in the selection of patients more suited for bladder preservation by definitive radiotherapy.

Analysis of failure following definitive radiotherapy for invasive transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Mameghan, Hedy; Fisher, Richard; Mameghan, Jill; Brook, Susan

1995-01-01

Purpose: To assess prognostic factors for bladder relapse and distant failure following definitive radiotherapy for invasive transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder. Methods and Materials: Retrospective review of patients treated in the period 1977 to 1990 by definitive radiotherapy. The factors studied included age, sex, T stage, histological grade, tumor multiplicity, ureteric obstruction, total radiation dose, and use of neoadjuvant chemotherapy. The endpoints studied were bladder relapse and distant failure. Results: There were 342 patients with a mean follow-up time of 7.9 years. Bladder relapse was observed in 159 patients. The overall actuarial bladder relapse rate at 5 years was 55% (SE = 3%). Prognostic factors for a higher bladder relapse rate were: tumor multiplicity (p < 0.001), presence of ureteric obstruction (p = 0.001), and higher T stage (p 0.044). Distant failure occurred in 39 patients. The overall actuarial distant failure rate at 5 years was 28% (SE = 3%). Prognostic factors for a higher distant failure rate were: ureteric obstruction (p = 0.003) and higher T stage (p = 0.030). Conclusion: In our study, patients with invasive bladder TCC fell into distinct prognostic groups determined by the three independent factors, ureteric obstruction, tumor multiplicity, and T stage. These factors provided estimated risks of bladder relapse by 5 years which ranged from 34% to 91%. Knowledge of these prognostic factors can help in the selection of patients more suited for bladder preservation by definitive radiotherapy

Outcomes analysis in 100 liver transplantation patients.

Science.gov (United States)

Geevarghese, S K; Bradley, A E; Wright, J K; Chapman, W C; Feurer, I; Payne, J L; Hunter, E B; Pinson, C W

1998-05-01

There is an increasing demand for outcomes analysis, including quality of life and financial analysis, following medical interventions and surgical procedures. We analyzed outcomes for 100 consecutive patients undergoing liver transplantation during a period of case management revision. Patient survival was calculated by Kaplan-Meier actuarial methods. The Karnofsky performance status was objectively assessed for surviving patients up to 6 years after transplantation and was evaluated by repeated measures analysis of variance and covariance. Subjective evaluation of quality of life over time was obtained using the Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale. The correlations between time and scale were calculated. Financial data were accumulated from billing records. Six-month, 1-year, 2-year, and 3- through 5-year survival was 86%, 84%, 83%, and 78%, respectively. Karnofsky performance status confirmed poor functional status preoperatively with a mean of 53 +/- 2, but significantly improving to 72 +/- 2 at 3 months, 80 +/- 2 at 6 months, 90 +/- 1 at 1 year, 92 +/- 1 at 2 years, 94 +/- 1 at 3 years, 96 +/- 1 at 4 years, and 97 +/- 1 at 5 years (P <0.001). Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale scores demonstrated significant improvement following transplantation overall (r = -0.33), improving most in sexual relationships (r = -0.41), and domestic environment (r = -0.35; P <0.001). Median length of stay for the first half of the patients was 19 days declining to 11 days for the second half. Median hospital charges declined from $105,000 to $90,000. Quality of life parameters assessed both by care givers (Karnofsky) and by patients (Psychosocial Adjustment to Illness Scale) improved dramatically following transplantation and over time, demonstrating that liver transplantation effectively restores a good quality of life. Outcomes can be improved while reducing length of stay and charges through modifications in case management.

Biochemical Control With Radiotherapy Improves Overall Survival in Intermediate and High-Risk Prostate Cancer Patients Who Have an Estimated 10-Year Overall Survival of >90%

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herbert, Christopher; Liu, Mitchell; Tyldesley, Scott; Morris, W. James; Joffres, Michel; Khaira, Mandip; Kwan, Winkle; Moiseenko, Vitali; Pickles, Thomas

2012-01-01

Purpose: To identify subgroups of patients with carcinoma of the prostate treated with radical radiotherapy that have improved overall survival when disease is biochemically controlled. Methods and Materials: A cohort of 1,060 prostate cancer patients treated with radical radiotherapy was divided into nine subgroups based on National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk category and estimated 10-year overall survival (eOS 10y) derived from the age adjusted Charlson Comorbidity Index. Patients with and without biochemical control were compared with respect to overall survival. Actuarial estimates of overall survival were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards models were used for analysis of overall survival. Results: Median follow-up was 125 months (range, 51–176 months). Only the subgroups with high or intermediate risk disease and an eOS 10y of >90% had a statistically significantly improved overall survival when prostate cancer was biochemically controlled. In all other groups, biochemical control made no significant difference to overall survival. In the subgroup with high-risk disease and eOS 10y >90%, actuarial overall survival was 86.3% (95% confidence interval [CI] 78.5%–94.1%) and 62.1% (95% CI 52.9%–71.3%) for patients with biochemical control and biochemical relapse respectively (p = 0.002). In the intermediate risk group with eOS >90%, actuarial overall survival was 95.3% (95% CI 89.0%–100%) and 79.8% (95% CI 68.0%–91.6%) for biochemically controlled and biochemically relapsed patients (p = 0.033). On multivariate analysis, National Comprehensive Cancer Network risk group (p = 0.005), biochemical control (p = 0.033) and eOS 10y (p 90%.

Posttreatment visual acuity in patients treated with episcleral plaque therapy for choroidal melanomas: dose and dose rate effects

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Jones, Robert; Gore, Elizabeth; Mieler, William; Murray, Kevin; Gillin, Michael; Albano, Katherine; Erickson, Beth

2002-01-01

Purpose: To determine the relationship between the long-term visual function and the dose and dose rates delivered to critical ocular structures in patients with choroidal melanoma treated with 125 I episcleral plaque radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: From 1987 to 1994, 63 patients underwent 125 I episcleral plaque (Collaborative Ocular Melanoma Study [COMS] design) application for the treatment of choroidal melanoma. The mean tumor height was 4.5 mm (range 1.7-8.3). Doses and dose rates at the tumor apex, macula, and optic disc were calculated. Forty-three records were scored to assess whether a decrease in visual acuity of >2 lines on a standard Snellen eye chart had occurred. Patient age and the presence of hypertension or diabetes were noted. Statistical analysis was performed to assess both the rate at which visual decline had occurred and the presence of significant factors that had contributed to this decline. Results: With a median follow-up of 36 months, the 3-year actuarial survival rate was 93.6%. The 3-year actuarial local control rate was 86.9%. The median time to visual loss after therapy was 18.7 months. The 3-year actuarial rate of visual preservation was 40.5%. Multivariate analysis demonstrated higher macula dose rates (p=0.003) to forecast visual decline. Macula dose rates of 111±11.1 cGy/h were associated with a 50% risk of significant visual loss. Conclusion: Patients in our series treated with 125 I plaque brachytherapy for choroidal melanoma experienced favorable tumor control, but with a measurable incidence of visual decline. Higher dose rates to the macula correlated strongly with poorer posttreatment visual outcome. This information may be valuable in selecting the optimal dose rates to treat choroidal melanomas and to predict the risk of visual decline

Implementing Capability Based Planning within the Public Safety and Security Sector: Lessons from the Defence Experience

Science.gov (United States)

2011-12-01

articulation of the problem in a manner that makes it suitable for normal mathematical or logical analysis. Therefore the approach must be more...because there is no underlying actuarial data available. Intangibles such as losses of trust, reputation, cohesion and goodwill are impossible to...ordering of alternatives based on expected utility. Some caution is in order. Although numeric values are established, the apparent mathematic

Assets, liabilities and risks

OpenAIRE

R. Thomson

2014-01-01

Financial economists and actuaries do not always talk the same language. One particular difference of concern to actuaries is the method of treatment (or non-treatment) of the liabilities of an investor in the portfolio selection problem. Another difference relates to the way in which liabilities are valued. In this paper, these differences are discussed and possible way forward are suggested.

Understanding the Impact of Socio-Economic Factors on Navy Accessions

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-01

for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN OPERATIONS RESEARCH from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE SCHOOL September 2015 Author: Bradley C...flexible GLMs, zero-inflated models and hybrid models. Casualty Actuarial Society E-Forum, 149. Gibson, J. (2009). Zip Code valuation study technical...Code-Data-(SOI) 116 Ismail, N. (2013, April). Estimation of claim count data using negative binomial. Casual Actuarial Society. Retrieved from

Before the Emergency: A Framework for Evaluating Emergency Preparedness Alternatives at Higher Education Institutions

Science.gov (United States)

2010-09-01

Assessment, and Management. While insightful, the approaches presented in this book require an extensive understanding of mathematics and engineering...use actuarial data to make this type of a calculation, but it seems unlikely that a university decision maker will make a decision about pursing a...proposed preparedness or mitigation strategy using actuarial data. Building a disaster resistant university in accordance with the guidelines

Discounting medical malpractice claim reserves for self-insured hospitals.

Science.gov (United States)

Frese, Richard; Kitchen, Patrick

2011-01-01

The hospital CFO often works with the hospital's actuary and external auditor to calculate the reserves recorded in financial statements. Hospital management, usually the CFO, needs to decide the discount rate that is most appropriate. A formal policy addressing the rationale for discounting and the rationale for selecting the discount rate can be helpful to the CFO, actuary, and external auditor.

Demographic Risks of the Pension Reform in the Russian Federation

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arkady Konstantinovich Solovyev

2016-03-01

Full Text Available The purpose of the study is to analyze the impact of the demographic crisis in the country’s fiscal system. In the article, the pension system for the first time is considered as a multifactorial model, which during the different historical periods corrects the degree of its dependence on the interdependent complex of macroeconomic and demographic factors. The economically sound and socially correct accounting of the interference of retirement age and the specified development factors of pension system requires a fundamental change in the methodological approaches to the problem of raising the retirement age by using the actuarial methods of forecasting. The actuarial analysis of the problem of retirement age shows that the perception of the linear dependence on demographic parameters of the age when the national pension is awarded cannot be considered as a tool for regulating the efficiency of the pension system. For the science-based solution to the problem of rising the retirement age, along with the dynamics of demographic parameters, it is necessary to take into account the whole range of macroeconomic conditions for the state development as well as the long-term socio-economic consequences. Another significant result of the study are the specific parameters of the actuarial assessments of the impact of demographic and macroeconomic conditions of increasing the retirement age in Russia, conducted using the state statistical data. The practical proposals to mitigate the negative economic consequences are formulated. The key conclusion reached is that the raising of the retirement age should be aimed exclusively at the economic stimulation of the formation of the pension rights of the insured in the long term, rather than to the short-term savings of the state budget. The methodological approaches grounded in the work, and the quantitative results of the actuarial calculations may be applied in the shaping the public pension policy when

Stereotactic radiosurgery using the gamma knife for acoustic neuromas

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Foote, Robert L.; Coffey, Robert J.; Swanson, Jerry W.; Harner, Stephen G.; Beatty, Charles W.; Kline, Robert W.; Stevens, Lorna N.; Hu, Theresa C.

1995-01-01

Purpose: To assess the efficacy and toxicity of stereotactic radiosurgery using the gamma knife for acoustic neuromas. Methods and Materials: Between January 1990 and January 1993, 36 patients with acoustic neuromas were treated with stereotactic radiosurgery using the gamma knife. The median maximum tumor diameter was 21 mm (range: 6-32 mm). Tumor volumes encompassed within the prescribed isodose line varied from 266 to 8,667 mm 3 (median: 3,135 mm 3 ). Tumors ≤ 20 mm in maximum diameter received a dose of 20 Gy to the margin, tumors between 21 and 30 mm received 18 Gy, and tumors > 30 mm received 16 Gy. The dose was prescribed to the 50% isodose line in 31 patients and to the 45%, 55%, 60%, 70%, and 80% isodose line in one patient each. The median number of isocenters per tumor was 5 (range: 1-12). Results: At a median follow-up of 16 months (range: 2.5-36 months), all patients were alive. Thirty-five patients had follow-up imaging studies. Nine tumors (26%) were smaller, and 26 tumors (74%) were unchanged. No tumor had progressed. The 1- and 2-year actuarial incidences of facial neuropathy were 52.2% and 66.5%, respectively. The 1- and 2-year actuarial incidences of trigeminal neuropathy were 33.7% and 58.9%, respectively. The 1- and 2-year actuarial incidence of facial or trigeminal neuropathy (or both) was 60.8% and 81.7%, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed that the following were associated with the time of onset or worsening of facial weakness or trigeminal neuropathy: (a) patients five isocenters. The 1- and 2-year actuarial rates of preservation of useful hearing (Gardner-Robertson class I or II) were 100% and 41.7% ± 17.3, respectively. Conclusion: Stereotactic radiosurgery using the gamma knife provides short-term control of acoustic neuromas when a dose of 16 to 20 Gy to the tumor margin is used. Preservation of useful hearing can be accomplished in a significant proportion of patients

High-dose preoperative radiation for cancer of the rectum: Impact of radiation dose on patterns of failure and survival

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ahmad, N.R.; Mohiuddin, M.; Marks, G.

1993-01-01

A variety of dose-time schedules are currently used for preoperative radiation therapy of rectal cancer. An analysis of patients treated with high-dose preoperative radiation therapy was undertaken to determine the influence of radiation dose on the patterns of failure, survival, and complications. Two hundred seventy-five patients with localized rectal cancer were treated with high-dose preoperative radiation therapy. One hundred fifty-six patients received 45 Gy (low-dose group). Since 1985, 119 patients with clinically unfavorable cancers were given a higher dose, 55 Gy using a shrinking field technique (high-dose group). All patients underwent curative resection. Median follow-up was 66 months in the low-dose group and 28 months in the high-dose group. Patterns of failure, survival, and complications were analyzed as a function of radiation dose. Fourteen percent of the total group developed a local recurrence; 20% in the low-dose group as compared with 6% in the high-dose group. The actuarial local recurrence rate at 5 years was 20% for the low-dose group and 8% for the high-dose group, and approached statistical significance with p = .057. For tethered/fixed tumors the actuarial local recurrence rates at 5 years were 28% and 9%, respectively, with p = .05. Similarly, for low-lying tumors (less than 6 cm from the anorectal junction) the rates were 24% and 9%, respectively, with p = .04. The actuarial rate of distant metastasis was 28% in the low-dose group and 20% in the high-dose group and was not significantly different. Overall actuarial 5-year survival for the total group of patients was 66%. No significant difference in survival was observed between the two groups, despite the higher proportion of unfavorable cancers in the high-dose group. The incidence of complications was 2%, equally distributed between the two groups. High-dose preoperative radiation therapy for rectal cancer results in excellent local control rates. 27 refs., 2 figs., 8 tabs

Bone marrow transplantation for patients with chronic myeloid leukemia

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Goldman, J.M.; Apperley, J.F.; Jones, L.

1986-01-01

Between February 1981 and December 1984 we treated 52 patients with chronic myeloid leukemia in the chronic phase and 18 patients with more advanced disease by high-dose chemoradiotherapy followed by allogeneic bone marrow transplantation using marrow cells from HLA-identical sibling donors. In addition, the 40 patients who had not previously undergone splenectomy received radiotherapy to the spleen. To prevent graft versus host disease, cyclosporine was given either alone or in conjunction with donor marrow depleted of T cells. Of the 52 patients treated in the chronic phase, 38 are alive after a median follow-up of 25 months (range, 7 to 50); the actuarial survival at two years was 72%, and the actuarial risk of relapse was 7%. Of the 18 patients with more advanced disease, 4 have survived; the actuarial two-year survival was 18%, and the actuarial risk of relapse was 42%. We conclude that the probability of cure is highest if transplantation is performed while the patient remains in the chronic phase of chronic myeloid leukemia. T-cell depletion may have reduced the incidence and severity of graft versus host disease. The value of irradiation to the spleen before transplantation has not been established

Analysis and Elimination of High Temperature Notch Induced Microcrack Initiation in Inconel 718 Nickel-Based Alloy

Science.gov (United States)

1989-01-01

Compressor Rear Frame (ClF) which exhibits extensive cract:ing of the forward flange. ThL 1988 Actuarial Function data shows CRF crackiing As the number 2...Creep-Rupture properties of Waspaloy sheet to Sharp-Edged Notches in the Temperature Range of 1O000F-14O0OF. Journal of Basle Engineering, Trans ASME ...Dependence of the Notch Sensitivity of Waspaloy at 10000F-1400F on the Gamma Prime Phase, Journal of Basic Engineering, Trans ASME (in print at time of

A Quantitative Risk Analysis of Deficient Contractor Business System

Science.gov (United States)

2012-04-30

Mathematically , Jorion’s concept of VaR looks like this: ( > ) ≤ 1 − (2) where, = ^Åèìáëáíáçå=oÉëÉ~êÅÜ=éêçÖê~ãW= `êÉ~íáåÖ=póåÉêÖó=Ñçê=fåÑçêãÉÇ=ÅÜ...presents three models for calculating VaR. The local-valuation method determines the value of a portfolio once and uses mathematical derivatives...management. In the insurance industry, actuarial data is applied to model risk and risk capital reserves are “held” to cover the expected values for

Prone breast radiotherapy in early-stage breast cancer: a preliminary analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Grann, Alison; McCormick, Beryl; Chabner, Elizabeth S.; Gollamudi, Smitha V.; Schupak, Karen D.; Mychalczak, Borys R.; Heerdt, Alexandra S.; Merchant, Thomas E.; Hunt, Margie A.

2000-01-01

Purpose: Women with large breasts have marked dose inhomogeneity and often an inferior cosmetic outcome when treated with breast conservation compared to smaller-sized patients. We designed a prone breast board, which both minimizes breast separation and irradiated lung or heart volume. We report feasibility, cosmesis, and preliminary local control and survival for selected women with Stage 0-II breast cancer. Materials and Methods: Fifty-six patients with clinical Stage 0-II breast cancer were treated with lumpectomy and breast irradiation utilizing a prototype prone breast board. A total of 59 breasts were treated. Indications for treatment in the prone position were large or pendulous breast size (n = 57), or a history of cardiopulmonary disease (n = 2). The median bra size was 41D (range, 34D-44EE). Cosmesis was evaluated on a 1-10 (worst-to-best) scale. Results: Acute toxicity included skin erythema (80% of patients experienced Grade I or Grade II erythema), breast edema (72% of patients experienced mild edema), pruritus (20% of patients), and fatigue (20% of patients reported mild fatigue). One patient required a treatment break. The only late toxicity was related to long-term cosmesis. The mean overall cosmesis score for 53 patients was 9.37 (range, 8-10). Actuarial 3- and 5-year local control rates are 98%. Actuarial overall survival at 3 and 5 years are 98% and 94%. Conclusion: Our data indicate that treating selected women with prone breast radiotherapy is feasible and tolerated. The approach results in excellent cosmesis, and short-term outcome is comparable to traditional treatment techniques. This technique offers an innovative alternative to women who might not otherwise be considered candidates for breast conservation

Local-regional control in breast cancer patients with a possible genetic predisposition

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Freedman, Laura M.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Thames, Howard D.; Strom, Eric A.; McNeese, Marsha D.; Hortobagyi, Gabriel N.; Singletary, S. Eva; Heaton, Keith M.; Hunt, Kelly K.

2000-01-01

Purpose: Local control rates for breast cancer in genetically predisposed women are poorly defined. Because such a small percentage of breast cancer patients have proven germline mutations, surrogates, such as a family history for breast cancer, have been used to examine this issue. The purpose of this study was to evaluate local-regional control following breast conservation therapy (BCT) in patients with bilateral breast cancer and a breast cancer family history. Methods and Materials: We retrospectively reviewed records of all 58 patients with bilateral breast cancer and a breast cancer family history treated in our institution between 1959 and 1998. The primary surgical treatment was a breast-conserving procedure in 55 of the 116 breast cancer cases and a mastectomy in 61. The median follow-up was 68 months for the BCT patients and 57 months for the mastectomy-treated patients. Results: Eight local-regional recurrences occurred in the 55 cases treated with BCT, resulting in 5- and 10-year actuarial local-regional control rates of 86% and 76%, respectively. In the nine cases that did not receive radiation as a component of their BCT, four developed local-regional recurrences (5- and 10-year local-regional control rates of BCT without radiation: 49% and 49%). The 5- and 10-year actuarial local-regional control rates for the 46 cases treated with BCT and radiation were 94% and 83%, respectively. In these cases, there were two late local recurrences, developing at 8 years and 9 years, respectively. A log rank comparison of radiation versus no radiation actuarial data was significant at p = 0.009. In the cases treated with BCT, a multivariate analysis of radiation use, patient age, degree of family history, margin status, and stage revealed that only the use of radiation was associated with improved local control (Cox regression analysis p = 0.021). The 10-year actuarial rates of local-regional control following mastectomy with and without radiation were 91% and 89

Prostate carcinoma: results of radiation therapy in the French Cancer Centres

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Allain, Y.M.; Bolla, M.; Douchez, J.; Gary-Bobo, J.; Geslin, J.; Huart, J.; Mazeron, J.J.; Mathieu, G.

1985-01-01

From 1975 to 1982, 597 patients with localized prostatic adenocarcinoma were treated using external beam irradiation in one of 6 cooperating centers. The mean patient age was 67 years. The 5 and 10 years actuarial survivals (including all causes of death) were 70% and 40% respectively. The adjusted survival rates become 86% at 5 years and 61% at 10 years when only death due to cancer is taken into consideration. Despite the fact that patients with stage A1 and A2 disease show different patterns of lymphatic spread, the actuarial and adjusted 8 years survivals were identical for both staging groups, in this study, 57% and 90% respectively. It is significant that the majority of patients in both group A1 and in group A2 received irradiation to the pelvic lymph nodes as well as the prostate. Patients with stage B1 disease showed a 7 years actuarial survival of 53% and an 82% survival adjusted for death due to cancer only. Patients in both group B2 and group C, showed an identical 10 year actuarial survival rate of 49%. However, without CT scanning, it is difficult to differentiate between these 2 staging groups. Patients with stage C2 disease showed 10 years actuarial and adjusted survival rates of 20% and 40% respectively. The local recurrence rate after primary radiation therapy did not exceed 11% in any patient group. These data demonstrate, once again, that the dogma pertaining to the radioresistance of prostatic cancer is outdated [fr

The Role of Human Error in Design, Construction, and Reliability of Marine Structures.

Science.gov (United States)

1994-10-01

the fundamental reason for the disparities between computed or notional reliabilities and actuarial relia- bilities. Another important finding from...Marine Structures Lack of recognition of HOE is the fundamental reason for the disparities between computed or notional reliabilities and actuarial ...Conference on Offshore Mechanics and Arctic Engineering, ASME Paper No. OMAE-92-1372, Calgary, Alberta, Canada. Bea, R. G., et al. (1994). "Quality Assurance

Reserve Component Manpower Readiness and Mobilization Policy. Volume 2. Based on the Colloquium on Mobilization with Special Emphasis on Guard and Reserve Components, 1-4 November 1983

Science.gov (United States)

1984-03-16

of Liberal Arts Rand Graduate Institute Syracuse Univ., College of Arts & Sciences Texas ASM Univ., College of Liberal Arts Tulane Univ., School of...and actuarial factors. Because tne Services have inadequate ,»rsonnel management data on the Reserve retiree population, inventory changes are...Manpower Data Center (DMDC) Office of the DoD Actuary and the respective service FY84-88 Program Objective Memorandum (POM). K/« cjr

Assets, liabilities and risks

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

R. Thomson

2014-01-01

Full Text Available Financial economists and actuaries do not always talk the same language. One particular difference of concern to actuaries is the method of treatment (or non-treatment of the liabilities of an investor in the portfolio selection problem. Another difference relates to the way in which liabilities are valued. In this paper, these differences are discussed and possible way forward are suggested.

Analyses of Military Healthcare Benefit Design and Delivery: Study in Support of the Military Compensation and Retirement Modernization Commission

Science.gov (United States)

2015-01-01

Health Sciences , and other specialized skill training and professional development education programs; • Base Operations/Communications – DoD medical and... Actuary lowered its estimate of future per capita medical spending for dual-eligible beneficiaries (i.e., beneficiaries eligible for both TRICARE and...of the covered population into account. While advanced actuarial modeling would be required to determine each plan’s actual premiums, here we

Fiscal Year 2014 United States Army Annual Financial Report: Maintaining Readiness Through Fiscal Responsibility

Science.gov (United States)

2014-01-01

citizens at home, to combating insurgents abroad. Providing Advanced Technologies The Army’s Science and Technology (S&T) investments support Army...Construction 29,892,790 33,309,504 (Less: Earned Revenue) $ (14,868,782) $ (14,584,858) Net Cost before Losses/(Gains) from Actuarial Assumption Changes for...Benefits consist of various employee actuarial liabilities not due and payable during the current fiscal year. These liabilities consist primarily

High-Risk Series: An Update

Science.gov (United States)

2015-02-01

the Medicare Trustees, the Office of the Actuary , and the Congressional Budget Office have raised concerns about whether some of the Medicare... actuarially sound. For more information, see the National Flood Insurance Program section of this High-Risk report. Among other things, the report...and mathematics (STEM) functional community. In addition to the efforts of the Working Group, the President’s Fiscal Year 2013 budget—released in

Technical Risk Identification at Program Inception

Science.gov (United States)

2014-04-20

risks include the probabilistic sum of all of the constituent elements. Aggregation is subjective, and typically not statistical or mathematical ...insure and how much to charge. The system creates groupings of vehicles and driver actuarial classes based on the following classifications...Coverage type. • Classifications, such as age, are further broken into actuarial classes, e.g., 21 to 24 year olds. Supply Chain Risk Identification There

Gesellschaft fuer angewandte Mathematik und Mechanik, Annual Scientific Meeting, Universitaet Regensburg, Regensburg, West Germany, April 16-19, 1984, Proceedings

Science.gov (United States)

Problems in applied mathematics and mechanics are addressed in reviews and reports. Areas covered are vibration and stability, elastic and plastic mechanics, fluid mechanics, the numerical treatment of differential equations (general theory and finite-element methods in particular), optimization, decision theory, stochastics, actuarial mathematics, applied analysis and mathematical physics, and numerical analysis. Included are major lectures on separated flows, the transition regime of rarefied-gas dynamics, recent results in nonlinear elasticity, fluid-elastic vibration, the new computer arithmetic, and unsteady wave propagation in layered elastic bodies.

Assessing the variability of outcome for patients treated with localized prostate irradiation using different definitions of biochemical control

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Horwitz, Eric M.; Vicini, Frank A.; Ziaja, Ellen L.; Gonzalez, Jose; Dmuchowski, Carl F.; Stromberg, Jannifer S.; Brabbins, Donald S.; Hollander, Jay; Chen, Peter Y.; Martinez, Alvaro A.

1996-01-01

Purpose: Biochemical control using serial posttreatment serum prostate specific antigen (PSA) levels is being increasingly used to assess treatment efficacy for localized prostate cancer. However, no standardized definition of biochemical control has been established. We reviewed our experience treating patients with localized prostate cancer and applied three different commonly used definitions of biochemical control to determine if differences in therapeutic outcome would be observed. Methods and Materials: Between January 1987 and December 1991, 480 patients with clinically localized prostate cancer received external beam irradiation (RT) using localized prostate fields at William Beaumont Hospital. The median dose to the prostate was 66.6 Gy (range 58-70.4) using a four-field or arc technique. Pretreatment and posttreatment serum PSA levels were recorded. Over 86% (414 of 480) of patients had a pretreatment PSA level available. Three different definitions of biochemical control were used: (a) PSA nadir 20), and 5-year actuarial rates of biochemical control were calculated using the three biochemical control and one clinical local control definitions. For Group 1, 5-year actuarial rates of biochemical control were 84%, 90%, and 96% for Definitions 1-3 and clinical local control, respectively. For Group 2, 5-year actuarial control rates were 45%, 54%, 74%, and 92% for the four definitions, respectively. For Group 3, 5-year actuarial control rates were 26%, 31%, 63%, and 100% for the four definitions, respectively. For Group 4, 5-year actuarial control rates were 24%, 24%, 50%, and 100% for the four definitions, respectively. Finally, for Group 5, 5-year actuarial control rates were 5%, 14%, 15%, and 89% for the four definitions, respectively. Depending on the definition used, statistically significant differences overall in outcome rates were observed. Differences between all four definitions for all pairwise comparisons ranged from 5 to 53% (p < 0

Relative risk analysis of several manufactured nanomaterials: an insurance industry context.

Science.gov (United States)

Robichaud, Christine Ogilvie; Tanzil, Dicksen; Weilenmann, Ulrich; Wiesner, Mark R

2005-11-15

A relative risk assessment is presented for the industrial fabrication of several nanomaterials. The production processes for five nanomaterials were selected for this analysis, based on their current or near-term potential for large-scale production and commercialization: single-walled carbon nanotubes, bucky balls (C60), one variety of quantum dots, alumoxane nanoparticles, and nano-titanium dioxide. The assessment focused on the activities surrounding the fabrication of nanomaterials, exclusive of any impacts or risks with the nanomaterials themselves. A representative synthesis method was selected for each nanomaterial based on its potential for scaleup. A list of input materials, output materials, and waste streams for each step of fabrication was developed and entered into a database that included key process characteristics such as temperature and pressure. The physical-chemical properties and quantities of the inventoried materials were used to assess relative risk based on factors such as volatility, carcinogenicity, flammability, toxicity, and persistence. These factors were first used to qualitatively rank risk, then combined using an actuarial protocol developed by the insurance industry for the purpose of calculating insurance premiums for chemical manufacturers. This protocol ranks three categories of risk relative to a 100 point scale (where 100 represents maximum risk): incident risk, normal operations risk, and latent contamination risk. Results from this analysis determined that relative environmental risk from manufacturing each of these five materials was comparatively low in relation to other common industrial manufacturing processes.

High-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-IC) in treatment of cervical carcinoma: 5-year results and implication of increased low-grade rectal complication on initiation of an HDR-IC fractionation scheme

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Wang Chongjong; Wan Leung, Stephen; Chen Huichun; Sun Limin; Fang Fumin; Changchien Chanchao; Huang Engyen; Wu Jiaming; Chen Chuhnchih

1997-01-01

Purpose: To report the treatment results and rectal/bladder complications of cervical carcinoma radically treated with high-dose-rate intracavitary brachytherapy (HDR-IC). The current policy of using three-fraction scheme was examined. Methods and Materials: Between November 1987 and August 1990, 173 patients with cervical carcinoma were treated with curative-intent radiation therapy. Whole pelvic irradiation was administered with 10-MV X ray. Dose to the central cervix was 40-44 Gy in 20-22 fractions, following by pelvic wall boost 6-14 Gy in three to seven fractions with central shielding. 60 Co sources were used for HDR-IC, and 7.2 Gy was given to Point A for three applications, 1-2 weeks apart. Duration of follow-up was 5-7.8 years. Results: Twenty-eight patients (16%) developed central-regional recurrences. Overall 5-year actuarial pelvic control rate was 83%. By stage, 5-year actuarial pelvic control rates were 94%, 87%, and 72% for Stages IB + IIA, IIB + IIIA, and IIIB + IVA, respectively. Thirty-one patients (18%) developed distant metastasis. Overall 5-year actuarial survival rate was 58%. By stage, 5-year actuarial survival rates were 79%, 59%, and 41% for Stages IB + IIA, IIB + IIIA, and IIIB + IVA, respectively. Sixty-six (38%) and 19 patients (11%) developed rectal and bladder complications, respectively. For rectal complication, the overall actuarial rate was 38% at 5 years. By grade, 5-year actuarial rectal complication rates were 24%, 15%, 4%, and 3% for Grades 1-4, respectively. Overall prevalence of rectal complications was 37% and 14% at 2 and 5 years, respectively. Prevalence of low-grade rectal complication (Grades 1 and 2) was dominant at 2 years (30%), but declined to 8% at 5 years. Prevalence of high-grade, severe rectal complication (Grades 3 and 4) remained steady at 2 and 5 years (7% and 6%, respectively). Five-year actuarial bladder complication was 9%. Five-year prevalence of bladder complication was 2%. Conclusion: Using a three

Late rectal toxicity after conformal radiotherapy of prostate cancer (I): multivariate analysis and dose-response

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Skwarchuk, Mark W.; Jackson, Andrew; Zelefsky, Michael J.; Venkatraman, Ennapadam S.; Cowen, Didier M.; Levegruen, Sabine; Burman, Chandra M.; Fuks, Zvi; Leibel, Steven A.; Ling, C. Clifton

2000-01-01

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to use the outcome of a dose escalation protocol for three-dimensional conformal radiation therapy (3D-CRT) of prostate cancer to study the dose-response for late rectal toxicity and to identify anatomic, dosimetric, and clinical factors that correlate with late rectal bleeding in multivariate analysis. Methods and Materials: Seven hundred forty-three patients with T1c-T3 prostate cancer were treated with 3D-CRT with prescribed doses of 64.8 to 81.0 Gy. The 5-year actuarial rate of late rectal toxicity was assessed using Kaplan-Meier statistics. A retrospective dosimetric analysis was performed for patients treated to 70.2 Gy (52 patients) or 75.6 Gy (119 patients) who either exhibited late rectal bleeding (RTOG Grade 2/3) within 30 months after treatment (i.e., 70.2 Gy--13 patients, 75.6 Gy--36 patients) or were nonbleeding for at least 30 months (i.e., 70.2 Gy--39 patients, 75.6 Gy--83 patients). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression was performed to correlate late rectal bleeding with several anatomic, dosimetric, and clinical variables. Results: A dose response for ≥ Grade 2 late rectal toxicity was observed. By multivariate analysis, the following factors were significantly correlated with ≥ Grade 2 late rectal bleeding for patients prescribed 70.2 Gy: 1) enclosure of the outer rectal contour by the 50% isodose on the isocenter slice (i.e., Iso50) (p max (p max

Radiotherapy alone in the treatment of uterine cervix cancer with telecobalt and low-dose-rate brachytherapy: retrospective analysis of results and variables

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ferrigno, Robson; Campos de Oliveira Faria, Sergio Luis; Weltman, Eduardo; Salvajoli, Joao Victor; Segreto, Roberto Araujo; Pastore, Ayrton; Nadalin, Wladimir

2003-01-01

Purpose: This retrospective analysis aims to report results and variables from patients with cervix cancer treated by radiation therapy alone with telecobalt and low-dose-rate brachytherapy (LDRB). Methods and Materials: Between September 1989 and September 1995, 190 patients with histologic diagnosis of cervix carcinoma were treated with telecobalt for external beam radiotherapy (EBR), followed by one or two insertions of LDRB. Stage distribution according to patients was the following: IB, 12; IIA, 4; IIB, 105; and IIIB, 69. Median dose of EBR at whole pelvis was 40 Gy, and median parametrial doses for Stages II and III patients were 50 Gy and 60 Gy, respectively. Median doses of LDRB at point A for patients treated with one and two insertions were 38 Gy and 50 Gy, respectively. Results: Median follow-up time was 70 months (range: 8-127 months). Overall survival, disease-free survival, and 5-year local control of patients at Stages I, II, and III were 83%, 78%, and 46%; 83%, 82%, and 49%; and 92%, 87%, and 58%, respectively. Overall incidence of late complications in the rectum, small bowel, and urinary tract was 15.3% (19/190), 4.2% (8/190), and 6.8% (13/190), respectively. The actuarial 5-year rectal, small bowel, and urinary incidence of late complications was 16.1%, 4.6%, and 7.6%, respectively. Clinical stage was the only significant variable for overall 5-year survival (p = 0.001), for disease-free survival (p=0.001), and for local control (p=0.001). Stage II patients more than 50 years old had better disease-free survival and local control at 5 years (p=0.004). None of the analyzed variables influenced the actuarial 5-year incidence of late complications. Conclusions: Results of this series suggest that the use of telecobalt equipment for EBR with doses up to 50 Gy at whole pelvis, prior to brachytherapy, is an acceptable technique for radiation therapy alone in the treatment of cervix cancer, especially in developing countries, including Brazil, where

Treatment selection for stage IIIA Hodgkin's disease patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Prosnitz, L.R.; Cooper, D.; Cox, E.B.; Kapp, D.S.; Farber, L.R.

1985-01-01

Two treatment policies for the therapy of patients with Stage IIIA Hodgkin's disease are compared. From 1969-1976, 49 newly diagnosed and pathologically staged IIIA patients received total nodal irradiation (TNI) alone (no liver irradiation). Although actuarial survival was 80% at 5 years and 68% at 10 years, actuarial freedom from relapse was only 38% at 5 years. Accordingly, a new treatment policy was instituted in 1976. Patients with either CS IIIA disease, multiple splenic nodules, IIIA with a large mediastinal mass or III 2 , received combined modality therapy (combination chemotherapy and irradiation). All others received TNI. Thirty-six patients have been treated under the new program. The actuarial survival is 90% at 5 years and the relapse-free survival is 87%, suggesting the superiority of this approach. Complications from the treatments are discussed

Effectiveness of postoperative radiation therapy in stage IB cervical cancer with residual disease

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Herman, J.; Perez-Tamayo, C.; Komaki, R.U.; Terada, K.; Roberts, J.A.; Morley, G.W.; Greenberg, M.; Mattingly, R.; Hopkins, M.

1987-01-01

Twenty-one patients with stage IB cervical cancer were treated with radical hysterectomy, pelvic lymph node dissection, and pelvic radiation therapy to approximately 5,090 rad. Patients were divided into two groups: group I, nine patients with involved parametria or positive margins at surgery; group II, 12 patients with metastatic pelvic lymph nodes. Patients in group I had an actuarial survival of 40% at 5 years and 20% at 10 years; patients in group II had an actuarial survival of 67% at 5 and 10 years (.01 < P < .05). The overall actuarial survival was 55% at 5 years and 43% at 10 years. Thus, patients with stage IB disease and involved parametrium or surgical margins do poorly. Alternative forms of therapy should be considered when this disease picture is clinically suspected preoperatively

Long-term results of salvage radiotherapy for the treatment of recurrent cervical carcinoma after prior surgery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Haasbeek, Cornelis J.A.; Uitterhoeve, Apollonia L.J.; Velden, Jacobus van der; Gonzalez, Dionisio Gonzalez; Stalpers, Lukas J.A.

2008-01-01

Abstarct: Background and purpose: Tumor recurrence after surgery for cervical carcinoma is associated with high fatality and morbidity, forming a major therapeutic challenge. This paper presents our experience with treatment of this patient group by salvage radiotherapy with curative intent. Materials and methods: Thirty-five patients with a pelvic recurrence after hysterectomy received high-dose radiotherapy. A retrospective analysis of long-term outcome and prognostic factors was performed. Results: After a median follow-up period of 12.1 years, actuarial 2-,5- and 10-year overall survival rates were 66%, 43% and 33%; disease-free survival rates were 62%, 45% and 41%, respectively. Pelvic control rates at 2-,5- and 10-years were 77%, 69% and 62%. Unfavorable prognostic factors on univariate analysis for survival were: recurrence extending to the pelvic wall versus central recurrence, early recurrence after surgery, external boost versus brachytherapy boost, low total dose and high age. Only a brachytherapy boost and a long interval between surgery and recurrence were significant on multivariate analysis. Severe complications (≥grade 3) were seen in 6 patients (17%; actuarial after 5 years, 21%). Conclusions: Salvage radiotherapy for recurrent cervical carcinoma following surgery may result in 40-50% long-term disease-free survival and an acceptable risk of severe treatment complications, even in patient with recurrences extending to the pelvic wall

Clinical Significance of ErbB Receptor Family in Urothelial Carcinoma of the Bladder: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yuh-Shyan Tsai

2012-01-01

Full Text Available The prognostic importance of examining ErbB receptor family expression in human bladder cancer remains uncertain. Using published evidence, we examined the clinical value and the updated results of clinical trials targeting ErbB receptor family members. Twenty-seven articles from 65 references related to ErbB receptor expression assessment in bladder cancer were reviewed. The estimates included the association significance, hazard ratios, and 95% confidence intervals (CIs from actuarial curves and survival analyses. A meta-analysis was done on those reports using univariate log-rank tests or a Cox-regression model. The methods of analysis and study subjects chosen varied widely among studies. The overall risks of disease progression for patients with EGFR or ErbB2 overexpression were 4.5 (95% CI: 2.5–8.4 and 1.1 (95% CI: 0.6–1.9, and the risks of mortality were 3.0 (95% CI: 1.6–5.9 and 1.1 (95% CI: 1.0–1.2, respectively. However, the significance of coexpression patterns of the ErbB receptor family remains controversial. None of six clinical trials yielded convincing results for blockading ErbB receptor signaling in urothelial carcinoma. The results of this analysis suggest that assessing co-expression patterns of the ErbB family may provide better prognostic information for bladder cancer patients.

How effective are risk assessments/measures for predicting future aggressive behaviour in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID): A systematic review and meta-analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Lofthouse, Rachael; Golding, Laura; Totsika, Vasiliki; Hastings, Richard; Lindsay, William

2017-12-01

Risk assessments assist professionals in the identification and management of risk of aggression. The present study aimed to systematically review evidence on the efficacy of assessments for managing the risk of physical aggression in adults with intellectual disabilities (ID). A literature search was conducted using the databases PsycINFO, EMBASE, MEDLINE, Web of Science, and Google Scholar. Electronic and hand searches identified 14 studies that met the inclusion criteria. Standardised mean difference effect sizes Area Under Curve (AUC) were calculated for studies. Random effects subgroup analysis was used to compare different types of risk measures (Actuarial, Structured Professional Judgment and dynamic), and prospective vs. catch-up longitudinal study designs. Overall, evidence of predictive validity was found for risk measures with ID populations: (AUC)=0.724, 95% CI [0.681, 0.768]. There was no variation in the performance of different types of risk measures, or different study design. Risk assessment measures predict the likelihood of aggression in ID population and are comparable to those in mainstream populations. Further meta-analysis is necessary when risk measures are more established in this population. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Military Retirement: Background and Recent Developments

Science.gov (United States)

2017-02-27

served after December 31, 2014. 9 Department of Defense, Valuation of the Military Retirement System, September 30, 2006, DOD Office of the Actuary...provision twice; first in 2014 (P.L. 113-82 §10001; formerly known as South Utah Valley Electric Conveyance Act) to apply only to servicemembers...Actuary, Valuation of the Military Retirement System, September 30, 2014, rev. June 2016. DOD budget authority and outlays in each fiscal year that

Department of the Navy Fiscal Year 2014 Annual Financial Report. The Nation’s Total Force: At the Right Place, At the Right Time, All the Time

Science.gov (United States)

2014-11-01

MD OFFICE OF NAVAL RESEARCH Naval science and technology (S&T) delivers new capabilities to the Navy and Marine Corps that ensure continued...purposes, the DON’s actuarial liability for worker’s compensation benefits is developed by the Department of Labor and provide to the DON at the end...FECA actuarial liabilities not due and payable during the current fiscal year Refer to Note 15, Federal Employee and Veteran Benefits, for

On improving pension product design

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Konicz, Agnieszka Karolina; Mulvey, John M.

2014-01-01

characterizing the individual. The problem is solved via a model that combines two optimization approaches: stochastic optimal control and multi-stage stochastic programming. The _rst method is common in _nancial and actuarial literature, but produces theoretical results. However, the latter, which...... is characteristic for operations research, has highly practical applications. We present the operations research methods which have potential to stimulate new thinking and add to actuarial practice....

Defense AT and L, Volume 41, Number 5, September - October 2012

Science.gov (United States)

2012-09-01

subtle differences confound us. In the insurance industry, years, decades, and centuries of historical data give actuaries high confidence in making...live another 23.26 years, it can declare with the utmost certainty that on average, all men in this category will. These actuaries bet their...variables are manipulated and data is collected. There are abundant sources of literature on DoE that describe the mathematical and statistical based tac

Costs of Military Pay and Benefits in the Defense Budget

Science.gov (United States)

2012-11-01

arithmetic reasoning, mathematics knowledge, paragraph comprehension, and word knowledge. Percentile scores measure aptitude relative to the entire...is not actuarially fair—it does not financially compensate the military retiree for what could easily be four decades of smaller annuity pay- ments...during a month in which the member is serving in a designated combat zone.37 One report estimates that to achieve an actuarially fair out- come, the

Survival Outcomes of Patients Treated with Hypofractionated Stereotactic Body Radiation Therapy for Parotid Gland Tumors: a Retrospective Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Karam, Sana D.; Snider, James W.; Wang, Hongkun; Wooster, Margaux; Lominska, Christopher; Deeken, John; Newkirk, Kenneth; Davidson, Bruce; Harter, K. William

2012-01-01

Background: to review a single-institution experience with the management of parotid malignancies treated by fractionated stereotactic body radiosurgery (SBRT). Findings: Between 2003 and 2011, 13 patients diagnosed with parotid malignancies were treated with adjuvant or definitive SBRT to a median dose of 33 Gy (range 25–40 Gy). There were 11 male and two female patients with a median age of 80. Ten patients declined conventional radiation treatment and three patients had received prior unrelated radiation therapy to neighboring structures with unavailable radiation records. Six patients were treated with definitive intent while seven patients were treated adjuvantly for adverse surgical or pathologic features. Five patients had clinical or pathologic evidence of lymph node disease. Conclusion: at a median follow-up of 14 months only one patient failed locally, and four failed distantly. The actuarial 2-year overall survival, progression-free survival, and local-regional control rates were 46, 84, and 47%, respectively. Statistical analysis revealed surgery as a positive predictor of overall survival while presence of gross disease was a negatively correlated factor (p < 0.05).

The long shadow of the past: risk pooling and the political development of health care reform in the States.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Anthony S; Weir, Margaret

2009-10-01

Why do the states seem to be pursuing different types of policy innovation in their health reform? Why so some seem to follow a "solidarity principle," while others seem guided by a commitment to "actuarial fairness"? Our analysis highlights the reciprocal influence of stakeholder mobilization and public policy over time. We find that early policy choices about how to achieve cost containment led the states down different paths of reform. In the 1970s and 1980s, states that featured oligopolistic or near-monopolistic markets for private insurance (usually dominated by Blue Cross) and strong urban-academic hospitals tended to adopt regulatory strategies for cost containment that led to broader forms of pooling and financing the costs of health risks--which subsequently positioned them to pursue major, solidaristic reform on favorable terms. On the other hand, states with competitive markets for private insurance and weak, decentralized hospitals tended to adopt market-based strategies for cost containment that led to the hypersegmentation of risk and the uneven financing of costs--thereby encouraging the proliferation of incremental policies that reinforce the principle of actuarial fairness. We illustrate our analysis with a brief comparison of Massachusetts and California, and we conclude with some thoughts on what our findings imply for the federal role in catalyzing health reform.

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 12 (2012)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Consumption changes on retirement for South African households · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. MBJ Butler, CJ van Zyl, 1-29. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v12i1.1 · Retirement adequacy goals for South African households · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL ...

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 1 (2001)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

Parameterisation of Expected Residual Lifetime after Seroconversion in a Ugandan Sample Population · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. DA Polakow, TT Dunne, JAG Whitworth, 35-62. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v1i1.24490 ...

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 5 (2005)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

An investigation of the mortality of South African assured lives, 1995–1998 · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. BR O'Malley, RE Dorrington, SC Jurisich, JA Valentini, TM Cohen, BJ Ross, 27-59. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v5i1.24502 ...

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 14 (2014)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The prevalence of chronic conditions associated with modifiable health risk factors in corporate employees in South Africa · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. R da Silva, K Milner, TL Kolbe-Alexander, M Greyling, D Patel, 101–136.

South African Actuarial Journal - Vol 8 (2008)

African Journals Online (AJOL)

The effects of HIV/AIDS on medical schemes in South Africa · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT. R Da Silva, L Wayburne, 35-91. http://dx.doi.org/10.4314/saaj.v8i1.24513 · Editorial: On Changing Jackets · EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL ...

Three Essays in Finance and Actuarial Science

OpenAIRE

Luca , Regis

2011-01-01

This thesis is constituted of three chapters. he first part of my Ph.D. dissertation develops a Bayesian stochastic model for computing the reserves of a non-life insurance company. The first chapter is the product of my research experience as an intern at the Risk Management Department of Fondiaria-Sai S.p.A.. I present a short review of the deterministic and stochastic claims reserving methods currently applied in practice and I develop a (standard) Over-Dispersed Poisson (ODP) Bayesian mod...

A Quasi Actuarial Prospect for Individual Assessment.

Science.gov (United States)

Owens, William A.

A conceptual model of individual assessment through the use of biodata responses with minimal input information is outlined. The process is considered especially applicable to industrial psychology. A scored autobiographical data form, which measures the individual's past behavior and experiences, provides for assignment to a specific subgroup…

Actuarial risk measures for financial derivative pricing

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Goovaerts, M.J.; Laeven, R.J.A.

2008-01-01

We present an axiomatic characterization of price measures that are superadditive and comonotonic additive for normally distributed random variables. The price representation derived involves a probability measure transform that is closely related to the Esscher transform, and we call it the

Restricted Coherent Risk Measures and Actuarial Solvency

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Christos E. Kountzakis

2012-01-01

Full Text Available We prove a general dual representation form for restricted coherent risk measures, and we apply it to a minimization problem of the required solvency capital for an insurance company.

29 CFR 4010.8 - Plan actuarial information.

Science.gov (United States)

2010-07-01

.... Assumptions for decrements other than mortality and retirement (such as turnover or disability) used to... than 25 years of service. Employee A is an active participant who is age 40 and has completed 5 years... entitled under the assumption that A works until age 58. (2) Example 2. Employee B is also an active...

Patterns of Utilization of Adjuvant Radiotherapy and Outcomes in Black Women After Breast Conservation at a Large Multidisciplinary Cancer Center

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Edwards-Bennett, Sophia M.; Jacks, Lindsay M.; McCormick, Beryl; Zhang, Zhigang; Azu, Michelle; Ho, Alice; Powell, Simon; Brown, Carol

2011-01-01

Purpose: Population-based studies have reported that as many of 35% of black women do not undergo radiotherapy (RT) after breast conservation surgery (BCS). The objective of the present study was to determine whether this trend persisted at a large multidisciplinary cancer center, and to identify the factors that predict for noncompliance with RT and determine the outcomes for this subset of patients. Methods and Materials: Between January 2002 and December 2007, 83 black women underwent BCS at Memorial Sloan-Kettering Cancer Center and were therefore eligible for the present study. Of the 83 women, 38 (46%) had Stage I, 38 (46%) Stage II, and 7 (8%) Stage III disease. Of the study cohort, 31 (37%) had triple hormone receptor-negative tumors. RT was recommended for 81 (98%) of the 83 patients (median dose, 60 Gy). Results: Of the 81 women, 12 (15%) did not receive the recommended adjuvant breast RT. Nonreceipt of chemotherapy (p = .003) and older age (p = .009) were associated with nonreceipt of RT. With a median follow-up of 70 months, the 3-year local control, locoregional control, recurrence-free survival, disease-free survival, and overall survival rate was 99% (actuarial 5-year rate, 97%), 96% (actuarial 5-year rate, 93%), 95% (actuarial 5-year rate, 92%), 92% (actuarial 5-year rate, 89%), and 95% (actuarial 5-year rate, 91%), respectively. Conclusion: We found a greater rate of utilization adjuvant breast RT (85%) among black women after BCS than has been reported in recent studies, indicating that excellent outcomes are attainable for black women after BCS when care is administered in a multidisciplinary cancer center.

Treatment of locally advanced breast carcinoma with high-dose external beam supervoltage radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brufman, G.; Weshler, Z.; Prosnitz, L.R.; Fuks, Z.

1981-01-01

Between 1960 and 1978, 87 patients with locally advanced Tsub(3-4)Nsub(0-3)M 0 carcinoma of the breast were treated with 5,000 to 8,000 rad of external beam supervoltage radiotherapy. Initial clinical eradication of the tumour was observed in 76 of 87 cases (87%), but the actuarial probability of local control at 5 yr was only 53%. Furthermore, the actuarial probability of disease-free survival was 25% at 5 yr and 13% at 10 yr. Most of the patients eventually succumbed to metastatic breast carcinoma and the actuarial survival at 5 yr was 43% and at 10 yr, 16%. The addition of adjuvant low-dose chemotherapy, given to 13 patients, did not affect the rates of local control, survival or disease-free survival. The most common long-term complication was extensive and deforming radiation-induced fibrosis of the treated breast. The actuarial probability of 10-yr survival without a local recurrence and without severe fibrosis of the treated breast was only 17.5%. The role of adjuvant high-dose chemotherapy in the treatment of locally advanced breast carcinoma and the possible use of improved radiotherapy techniques to achieve a more effective long-term local control and a more desirable cosmetic end result are discussed. (author)

Pawtuxet River, Warwick, Rhode Island. Local Flood Damage Reduction Study. Detailed Project Report for Water Resources Development.

Science.gov (United States)

1982-06-01

Warwich (Belmont Park) Rhode Island. Cover Title Reads: Flood Damage Reduction IS. KEY WORDS (Ce൘.. asm towvee aide of mogoseem aid 1~110j IV MeMAw...cost of the premium paid by policy holders. The actual premium is less than the actuarial rate by the amount of the subsidy which represents one facet...coverage limits, therefore it was not necessary to calculate additional coverage premiums based on actuarial rates. The annual average subsidized

Workforce Downsizing and Restructuring in the Department of Defense: The Voluntary Separation Incentive Payment Program Versus Involuntary Separation

Science.gov (United States)

2016-01-01

percentage of the pay bill for the force, consistent with OPM’s actuarial practice. This gives an amount—an accrual charge—sufficient to cover the...assigns to the FERS basic plan to reflect the actuarial liability included in govern- ment financial statements for FERS. For fiscal year 2015, OPM...bachelor of science degree BLS U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics CBO Congressional Budget Office CPI-U Consumer Price Index for All

Adaptive and Optimal Control of Stochastic Dynamical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

2015-09-14

Advances in Statistics, Probability and Actuarial Sciences , Vol. 1, World Scientific, 2012, 451- 463. [4] T. E. Duncan and B. Pasik-Duncan, A...S. N. Cohen, T. K. Siu and H. Yang) Advances in Statistics, Probability and Actuarial Sciences , Vol. 1, World Scientific, 2012, 451-463. 4. T. E...games with gen- eral noise processes, Models and Methods in Economics and Management Science : Essays in Honor of Charles S. Tapiero, (eds. F. El

Developing Standard Exercises and Statistics to Measure the Impact of Cyber Defenses

Science.gov (United States)

2014-06-01

partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of MASTER OF SCIENCE IN CYBER SYSTEMS AND OPERATIONS from the NAVAL POSTGRADUATE...attributed to insurers’ lack of experience with a new kind of risk, combined with insufficient actuarial data hindering competitive pricing.” Thus, it is...event. This “lack of actuarial data,” as will be seen later, is not just missing in insurance models—it is indeed the missing piece in the cost

Audit of Sandia Corporation`s pension plans and other prefunded benefits

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

1994-04-06

The audit disclosed that Sandia`s pension plans had $588.9 million in excess assets as of December 31, 1990, on a current value basis. If plan terminations and spin-offs occurred, at least $408.8 million of this amount could be returned to the Government without affecting the pension benefits that Sandia employees and retirees have earned. We recommended that Albuquerque take the necessary action to reduce the excess assets in the pension plans and recover the Government`s share. However, Albuquerque disagreed with the recommendation. Albuquerque justified leaving the excess assets in the pension plans to fund future plan amendments; to avoid future funding contributions; to avoid the costs and time-consuming administrative steps associated with taking action; and to prevent damaging effects on employee morale. We analyzed these points, and concluded that they should not prevent the Department from initiating action to return excess assets to the Government. Actuarial analysis of the pension plans showed that, even if certain plan adjustments were made, the plans were overfunded by $256 million as of December 31, 1991 (on an actuarial value basis).

The Role of Radiation Therapy in Adenocarcinoma of Endometrium

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Yun, Hyong Geun; Ha, Sung Whan; Kang, Soon Beom; Lee, Hyo Pyo

1990-01-01

From May, 1979 to October, 1987, 38 patients with endometrial carcinoma were treated with radiotherapy at Seoul National University Hospital. Of these, 32 patients received radiotherapy postoperatively, one received radiotherapy preoperatively, and five received radiotherapy only. Relative frequencies of obesity, nulliparity, late menopause, diabetes mellitus and hypertension were all higher than those reported in normal women in Korea, and those of obesity, diabetes mellitus, and nulliparity were significantly high. The overall actuarial five-year survival rate was 75.6%. The overall actuarial five year survival rates of stage I (22 cases), stage II (six cases), and stage III (10 cases) were 90.0%, 80.0%, and 44.4%, respectively, and were significantly different from each other. Among various factors, stage only proved to be prognostic by multivariate analysis. There were two local failures, three local failures combined with distant metastasis, and three distant metastasis. Stages I and II could be adequately controlled by local modalities without severe complications, stage III endometrial carcinoma might need more aggressive treatment for better survival

The Role of Radiation Therapy in Adenocarcinoma of Endometrium

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Yun, Hyong Geun; Ha, Sung Whan; Kang, Soon Beom; Lee, Hyo Pyo [Seoul National University College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

1990-06-15

From May, 1979 to October, 1987, 38 patients with endometrial carcinoma were treated with radiotherapy at Seoul National University Hospital. Of these, 32 patients received radiotherapy postoperatively, one received radiotherapy preoperatively, and five received radiotherapy only. Relative frequencies of obesity, nulliparity, late menopause, diabetes mellitus and hypertension were all higher than those reported in normal women in Korea, and those of obesity, diabetes mellitus, and nulliparity were significantly high. The overall actuarial five-year survival rate was 75.6%. The overall actuarial five year survival rates of stage I (22 cases), stage II (six cases), and stage III (10 cases) were 90.0%, 80.0%, and 44.4%, respectively, and were significantly different from each other. Among various factors, stage only proved to be prognostic by multivariate analysis. There were two local failures, three local failures combined with distant metastasis, and three distant metastasis. Stages I and II could be adequately controlled by local modalities without severe complications, stage III endometrial carcinoma might need more aggressive treatment for better survival.

Minutes of the Explosives Safety Seminar (25th) Held in Anaheim, California on 18-20 August 1992. Volume 2

Science.gov (United States)

1992-08-20

determined based on an actuarial analysis of presented that includes stochastic occurrences experience. For infrequent events, risk is of initiating...a cross-section of 4 x 4-feet. The chamber was divided in half by a central bulkhead that was penetrated by three ASME long radius flow nozzles, two...using the combined throat areas of the ASME flow nozzles in use, barometric pressure, wet and dry bulb temperatures, and the pressure drop across the

Impacts of Severe Weather, Climate Zone, and Energy Factors on Base Realignment and Closure (BRAC)

Science.gov (United States)

2015-03-26

Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Engineering Management Christopher L. Teke, Major, USAF Major...the science behind severe weather occurrences and climate zone. Chapter 3 further details the methodology used in the analysis and sets the stage... actuarial estimates and should be thought of as insurance premiums, and ought to remain a budgeted cost if a base stays open. In contrast, if a base is

Department of Defense Manpower Requirements Report FY 1995

Science.gov (United States)

1994-05-01

lm& INYI 94 III aIII$• ~ BY 9 SUBMI Sam 1 mm I Em 1 am m I am- ITv too a" mT amsITTm aSM . cm 10 ARMA 31 a 21 137 M1 st 1 33 157 179 to I to Ha3 201 am...determined by the DoD Retirement Board of Actuaries . This Board of Actuaries also determines an amortization schedule for the transfer of funds from the

Retroperitoneal soft tissue sarcoma: An analysis of radiation and surgical treatment

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ballo, Matthew T.; Zagars, Gunar K.; Pollock, Raphael E.; Benjamin, Robert S.; Feig, Barry W.; Cormier, Janice N.; Hunt, Kelly K.; Patel, Shreyaskumar R.; Trent, Jonathan C.; Beddar, Sam; Pisters, Peter W.T.

2007-01-01

Purpose: To evaluate the clinical outcomes of patients with localized retroperitoneal soft tissue sarcoma (STS) treated with complete surgical resection and radiation. Methods and Materials: The medical records of 83 patients were reviewed retrospectively. Sixty patients presented with primary disease and the remaining 23 had recurrence after previous surgical resection. Results: With a median follow-up of 47 months, the actuarial overall disease-specific survival (DSS), distant metastasis-free survival, and local control (LC) rates were 44%, 67%, and 40%, respectively. Of the 38 patients dying of disease, local disease progression was the sole site of recurrence for 16 patients and was a component of progression for another 11 patients. Multivariate analysis indicated that histologic grade was associated with the 5-year rates of DSS (low-grade, 92%; intermediate-grade, 51%; and high-grade, 41%, p = 0.006). Multivariate analysis also indicated an inferior 5-year LC rate for patients presenting with recurrent disease, positive or uncertain resection margins, and age greater than 65 years. The data did not suggest an improved local control with higher doses of external-beam radiation (EBRT) or with the specific use of intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT). Radiation-related complications (10% at 5 years) developed in 5 patients; all had received their EBRT postoperatively. Conclusions: Although preoperative radiation therapy and aggressive surgical resection is well tolerated in patients, local disease progression continues to be a significant component of disease death. In this small cohort of patients, the use of higher doses of EBRT or IORT did not result in clinically apparent improvements in outcomes

Hypofractionated intensity-modulated arc therapy for lymph node metastasized prostate cancer: Early late toxicity and 3-year clinical outcome

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fonteyne, Valérie; Lumen, Nicolaas; Ost, Piet; Van Praet, Charles; Vandecasteele, Katrien; De Gersem Ir, Werner; Villeirs, Geert; De Neve, Wilfried; Decaestecker, Karel; De Meerleer, Gert

2013-01-01

Background and purpose: For patients with N1 prostate cancer (PCa) aggressive local therapies can be advocated. We evaluated clinical outcome, gastro-intestinal (GI) and genito-urinary (GU) toxicity after intensity modulated arc radiotherapy (IMAT) + androgen deprivation (AD) for N1 PCa. Material and methods: Eighty patients with T1-4N1M0 PCa were treated with IMAT and 2–3 years of AD. A median dose of 69.3 Gy (normalized isoeffective dose at 2 Gy per fraction: 80 Gy [α/β = 3]) was prescribed in 25 fractions to the prostate. The pelvic lymph nodes received a minimal dose of 45 Gy. A simultaneous integrated boost to 72 Gy and 65 Gy was delivered to the intraprostatic lesion and/or pathologically enlarged lymph nodes, respectively. GI and GU toxicity was scored using the RTOG/RILIT and RTOG-SOMA/LENT-CTC toxicity scoring system respectively. Three-year actuarial risk of grade 2 and 3/4 GI–GU toxicity and biochemical and clinical relapse free survival (bRFS and cRFS) were calculated with Kaplan–Meier statistics. Results: Median follow-up was 36 months. Three-year actuarial risk for late grade 3 and 2 GI toxicity is 8% and 20%, respectively. Three-year actuarial risk for late grade 3–4 and 2 GU toxicity was 6% and 34%, respectively. Actuarial 3-year bRFS and cRFS was 81% and 89%, respectively. Actuarial 3-year bRFS and cRFS was, respectively 26% and 32% lower for patients with cN1 disease when compared to patients with cN0 disease. Conclusion: IMAT for N1 PCa offers good clinical outcome with moderate toxicity. Patients with cN1 disease have poorer outcome

Postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Morbidity of local-only or local-plus-pelvic radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Waldstein, Cora; Poetter, Richard; Widder, Joachim; Goldner, Gregor; Doerr, Wolfgang

2018-01-01

The aim of this work was to characterise actuarial incidence and prevalence of early and late side effects of local versus pelvic three-dimensional conformal postoperative radiotherapy for prostate cancer. Based on a risk-adapted protocol, 575 patients received either local (n = 447) or local-plus-pelvic (n = 128) radiotherapy. Gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) side effects (≥grade 2 RTOG/EORTC criteria) were prospectively assessed. Maximum morbidity, actuarial incidence rate, and prevalence rates were compared between the two groups. For local radiotherapy, median follow-up was 68 months, and the mean dose was 66.7 Gy. In pelvic radiotherapy, the median follow-up was 49 months, and the mean local and pelvic doses were 66.9 and 48.3 Gy respectively. Early GI side effects ≥ G2 were detected in 26% and 42% of patients respectively (p < 0.001). Late GI adverse events were detected in 14% in both groups (p = 0.77). The 5-year actuarial incidence rates were 14% and 14%, while the prevalence rates were 2% and 0% respectively. Early GU ≥ G2 side effects were detected in 15% and 16% (p = 0.96), while late GU morbidity was detected in 18% and 24% (p = 0.001). The 5-year actuarial incidence rates were 16% and 35% (p = 0.001), while the respective prevalence rates were 6% and 8%. Despite the low prevalence of side effects, postoperative pelvic radiotherapy results in significant increases in the actuarial incidence of early GI and late GU morbidity using a conventional 4-field box radiotherapy technique. Advanced treatment techniques like intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) or volumetric modulated arc radiotherapy (VMAT) should therefore be considered in pelvic radiotherapy to potentially reduce these side effects. (orig.) [de

Does pretreatment hemoglobin level affect outcome in patients with T1 glottic cancer?

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Canaday, Daniel J.; Regine, William F.; Mohiuddin, Mohammed; Zollinger, William; Machtay, Mitchell; Lee, Jason; Schultz, Delray; Rosenthal, David I.; Rudoltz, Marc S.

1997-01-01

Purpose/Objective: Recent reports have suggested that pretreatment hemoglobin (Hgb) is significantly associated with local control (LC) and overall survival (OS) in patients with T1 and T2 squamous cell carcinoma of the glottic larynx. This study evaluates the association of pretreatment Hgb level and other factors with outcome in patients limited to T1 squamous cell carcinoma of the glottic larynx treated with external beam radiation. Methods: One hundred fifty-eight patients with T1 squamous cell carcinoma of the glottic larynx were analyzed. Median follow-up was 5 years (range 2-22). Median pretreatment Hgb was 14.4 gm/dl (range 8.2-17.2). The following parameters were analyzed for their impact on LC, OS, and disease specific survival (DSS): age, gender, pretreatment Hgb, tumor grade, anterior commissure involvement, field size, total dose, dose per fraction, and overall treatment time. Results: Five year actuarial LC was 84%. Pretreatment Hgb was not a significant predictor for LC when assessed as a continuous variable (p=0.38). LC was 82% for patients with Hgb >13 vs 92% for Hgb ≤ 13 (p=0.13). No other factor was significant for LC. Five year actuarial OS was 74%. On univariate analysis, pretreatment Hgb ≤ 13 gm/dl was a significant factor for poorer OS (78% vs 68%, p=0.004), as were total dose 61 years (p=0.017). On multivariate analysis, only age >61 (p=0.014) and Hgb ≤ 13 (p=0.001) retained significance for OS. Five year actuarial DSS was 92%. Pretreatment Hgb was not a prognostic factor for DSS, nor were any other analyzed factors. Conclusion: Pretreatment Hgb is not a significant prognostic factor for LC in patients with T1 squamous cell carcinoma of the glottic larynx, but it does predict for a poorer OS without affecting DSS. This suggests that patients with lower pretreatment Hgb may have confounding medical problems which detract from their overall survival

Outcomes of Node-positive Breast Cancer Patients Treated With Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation Via Multicatheter Interstitial Brachytherapy: The Pooled Registry of Multicatheter Interstitial Sites (PROMIS) Experience.

Science.gov (United States)

Kamrava, Mitchell; Kuske, Robert R; Anderson, Bethany; Chen, Peter; Hayes, John; Quiet, Coral; Wang, Pin-Chieh; Veruttipong, Darlene; Snyder, Margaret; Demanes, David J

2018-06-01

To report outcomes for breast-conserving therapy using adjuvant accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) with interstitial multicatheter brachytherapy in node-positive compared with node-negative patients. From 1992 to 2013, 1351 patients (1369 breast cancers) were treated with breast-conserving surgery and adjuvant APBI using interstitial multicatheter brachytherapy. A total of 907 patients (835 node negative, 59 N1a, and 13 N1mic) had >1 year of data available and nodal status information and are the subject of this analysis. Median age (range) was 59 years old (22 to 90 y). T stage was 90% T1 and ER/PR/Her2 was positive in 87%, 71%, and 7%. Mean number of axillary nodes removed was 12 (SD, 6). Cox multivariate analysis for local/regional control was performed using age, nodal stage, ER/PR/Her2 receptor status, tumor size, grade, margin, and adjuvant chemotherapy/antiestrogen therapy. The mean (SD) follow-up was 7.5 years (4.6). The 5-year actuarial local control (95% confidence interval) in node-negative versus node-positive patients was 96.3% (94.5-97.5) versus 95.8% (87.6-98.6) (P=0.62). The 5-year actuarial regional control in node-negative versus node-positive patients was 98.5% (97.3-99.2) versus 96.7% (87.4-99.2) (P=0.33). The 5-year actuarial freedom from distant metastasis and cause-specific survival were significantly lower in node-positive versus node-negative patients at 92.3% (82.4-96.7) versus 97.8% (96.3-98.7) (P=0.006) and 91.3% (80.2-96.3) versus 98.7% (97.3-99.3) (P=0.0001). Overall survival was not significantly different. On multivariate analysis age 50 years and below, Her2 positive, positive margin status, and not receiving chemotherapy or antiestrogen therapy were associated with a higher risk of local/regional recurrence. Patients who have had an axillary lymph node dissection and limited node-positive disease may be candidates for treatment with APBI. Further research is ultimately needed to better define specific criteria for APBI

Neutron radiotherapy for adenoid cystic carcinoma of minor salivary glands

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Douglas, James G.; Laramore, George E.; Austin-Seymour, Mary; Wui-Jin, Koh; Lindsley, Karen L.; Cho, Paul; Griffin, Thomas W.

1996-01-01

Purpose: To examine the efficacy of fast neutron radiotherapy for the treatment of patients with locally advanced, adenoid cystic carcinoma of minor salivary glands and to identify prognostic variables associated with local control, overall survival, and cause specific survival. Methods and Materials: Eighty-four patients having adenoid cystic carcinoma of minor salivary glands were treated with fast neutron radiotherapy during the years 1985-1994. All patients had either unresectable disease or gross disease remaining after attempted surgical extirpation. Seventeen patients had previously received conventional radiotherapy and their subsequent treatment fields and doses for neutron radiotherapy were modified for critical sites (brainstem, spinal cord, brain). Although the median doses (tumor maximum and tumor minimum) only varied by ≤10%, treatment portals were substantially smaller in these patients because of normal tissue complication considerations. Twelve patients (13%) had distant metastases at the time of treatment and were only treated palliatively with smaller treatment portals and lower median tumor doses (≤80% of the doses delivered to curatively treated patients). Seventy-two patients were treated with curative intent, with nine of these having recurrent tumors after prior full-dose radiotherapy. The median duration of follow-up at the time of analysis was 31.5 months (range 3-115). Sites of disease and number of patients treated per disease site were as follows: paranasal sinus--31; oral cavity--20; oropharynx--12; nasopharynx--11; trachea--6; and other sites in the head and neck--4. Results: The 5-year actuarial local-regional tumor control rate for all patients treated with curative intent was 47%. Patients without involvement of the cavernous sinus, base of skull, or nasopharynx (51 patients) had a 5-year actuarial local-regional control rate of 59%, whereas local-regional control was significantly lower (15%) for patients with tumors involving

Role of hormonal therapy in the management of intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer treated with permanent radioactive seed implantation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Lucille N.; Stock, Richard G.; Stone, Nelson N.

2002-01-01

Purpose: To study the impact of hormonal therapy (HTx) on intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer treated with permanent radioactive seed implantation. Methods and Materials: Patients with Stage T1b-T3bN0 prostate cancer, and Gleason score ≥7 or prostate-specific antigen (PSA) level >10 ng/mL were treated with seed implantation with or without HTx. Their disease was defined as intermediate risk (PSA 10-20, Gleason score 7, or Stage T2b) or high risk (two or more intermediate criteria, or PSA >20 ng/mL, Gleason score 8-10, or Stage T2c-T3). The median follow-up for 201 eligible patients was 42 months (range 18-110). Biochemical failure was defined as a rising PSA >1.0 ng/mL. Pretreatment disease characteristics, implant dose, and HTx were evaluated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Results: HTx significantly improved 5-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure rate, 79% vs. 54% without HTx. In addition, high-dose, PSA ≤15 ng/mL, intermediate risk, and Stage T2a or lower significantly improved outcome in the univariate analyses. HTx was the most significant predictor of 5-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure (p <0.0001) in a multivariate analysis. The best outcome was in the intermediate-risk patients treated with a high implant dose and HTx, resulting in a 4-year actuarial freedom from biochemical failure rate of 94%. Conclusion: In this retrospective review, HTx improved outcome in intermediate- to high-risk prostate cancer patients treated with brachytherapy. HTx was the most important prognostic factor in the univariate and multivariate analyses

Prediction of Neck Dissection Requirement After Definitive Radiotherapy for Head-and-Neck Squamous Cell Carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thariat, Juliette; Ang, K. Kian; Allen, Pamela K.; Ahamad, Anesa; Williams, Michelle D.; Myers, Jeffrey N.; El-Naggar, Adel K.; Ginsberg, Lawrence E.; Rosenthal, David I.; Glisson, Bonnie S.; Morrison, William H.; Weber, Randal S.; Garden, Adam S.

2012-01-01

Background: This analysis was undertaken to assess the need for planned neck dissection in patients with a complete response (CR) of involved nodes after irradiation and to determine the benefit of a neck dissection in those with less than CR by tumor site. Methods: Our cohort included 880 patients with T1-4, N1-3M0 squamous cell carcinoma of the oropharynx, larynx, or hypopharynx who received treatment between 1994 and 2004. Survival curves were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier Method, comparisons of rates with the log–rank test and prognostic factors by Cox's proportional hazard model. Results: Nodal CR occurred in 377 (43%) patients, of whom 365 patients did not undergo nodal dissection. The 5-year actuarial regional control rate of patients with CR was 92%. Two hundred sixty-eight of the remaining patients (53%) underwent neck dissections. The 5-year actuarial regional control rate for patients without a CR was 84%. Those who had a neck dissection fared better with 5-year actuarial regional control rates of 90% and 76% for those operated and those not operated (p < 0.001). Variables associated with poorer regional control rates included higher T and N stage, non-oropharynx cancers, non-CR, both clinical and pathological. Conclusions: With 92% 5-year neck control rate without neck dissection after CR, there is little justification for systematic neck dissection. The addition of a neck dissection resulted in higher neck control after partial response though patients with viable tumor on pathology specimens had poorer outcomes. The identification of that subgroup that benefits from additional treatment remains a challenge.

Outcome of oligodendroglioma treatment in the era of modern neuroimaging

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kleinberg, Lawrence R.; Silverman, Edward; Brem, Henry; Wharam, Moody D.

1997-01-01

Purpose/Objective: The benefit of routine postoperative radiotherapy for low grade oligodendroglioma remains controversial. Most published series include many patients treated before the availability of CT or MRI scans which allow early diagnosis, guide surgery, detect residual disease, improve radiotherapy, and detect asymptomatic recurrences. The purpose of this analysis is to determine whether observation rather than radiation continues to be an appropriate option for selected patients with the availability of modern neuroimaging. Materials and Methods: 58 patients (age 2-67 years, 6 pts. =2 poor prognostic factor (p=.04). Results: Two and five year actuarial freedom from local progression was 93 +/- 4% and 75% +/- 8% whereas 2 and 5 year overall survival was 94% +/- 3% and 80% +/- 7%. Despite the imbalance of prognostic factors, there was no significant difference whether or not postoperative RT was given. With RT, 2 and 4 year actuarial freedom from progression was 94% +/- 4% and 78% +/- 8%, whereas without RT it was 94% +/- 6% at 2 and 4 years. Similarly, 2 and 4 year actuarial survival was 94% +/- 4% and 78% +/- 8% with RT and was 91% +/- 8% without RT. (5(10)) recurrences were detected radiologically without new or progressive clinical symptoms. Conclusion: These data support the hypothesis that, in the era of modern neuroimaging, the initial observation of good risk patients and immediate irradiation of poor risk patients is an appropriate treatment approach which results in good medium term control and survival for low grade oligodendroglioma patients. A policy of treatment vs. observation based on selected prognostic factors will be tested prospectively in an intergroup trial for low grade glioma histologies

Dosimetric and clinical results of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy for locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zheng Xiaokang; Ma Jun; Chen Longhua; Xia Yunfei; Shi Yusheng

2005-01-01

Purpose: To assess the dosimetric and clinical results of three-dimensional conformal radiotherapy (3D CRT) for locally recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). Methods: A total of 86 patients with locally recurrent NPC were retreated with 3D CRT. The median prescribed dose was 68 Gy with 2 Gy per fractionation. Dosimetric quality was evaluated with dose distribution in planning target volume (PTV) and specified organs at risk (OAR), dose conformity index (CI) and dose homogeneity index (HI). The actuarial rate of local failure-free (LFF), overall survival (OS) and major late toxicities (MLT) were estimated with Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis for prognosis was performed using the Cox regression proportional hazards model. Results: The mean dose to PTV averaged 66.8 Gy, and the dose to specified OAR was acceptable. The average value of CI and HI was 0.59 and 9.1%. The 5-year actuarial rate of LFF and OS was 71 and 40%, respectively. The 5-year actuarial incidence of MLT≥Grade 3 and ≥Grade 4 were 100 and 49%, respectively. The major prognostic factors were T stage and the size of gross tumor volume (GTV). Advanced T stage and large GTV volume were associated with poor LFF and OS and high risk of MLT. Conclusion: The dosimetric quality of 3D CRT for locally recurrent NPC is generally excellent. A relatively high local control was achieved with this technique. However, the incidence of late toxicities were not found to decrease as originally expected. Early diagnosis of the recurrence and reasonable definition of the target volume are crucial to achieve a better outcome

Long-term results of accelerated radiation treatment for advanced head and neck cancer

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lamb, D.S.; Morum, P.E.; Denham, J.W.; Gray, A.J.

1998-01-01

Background and purpose: This report presents long-term follow-up data from a prospective but unrandomized trial of a continuous 3.5-week course of accelerated radiation treatment (ART) used as primary treatment for patients with loco-regionally advanced head and neck cancer. Materials and methods: Ninety-three patients in three centres in New Zealand and Australia were treated with ART (59.40 Gy in 33 fractions over 24-25 days). Their disease originated from three anatomical regions (oral cavity, 35 patients; pharynx, 31 patients; larynx, 27 patients). Seventy-nine of these patients had stage III or IV cancers. Results: Follow-up ranged from 68 to 203 months (median 139 months). Loco-regional (LR) failure occurred in 52 patients leading to a 10-year actuarial expectation of LR control of 38%. The actuarial expectation of LR control at 10 years was highly dependent on stage and for stage III, IVA and IVB patients it was 57±8.1%, 32±1.7% and 7±0.5%, respectively. Multivariate analysis could not confirm an independent impact of primary site or histological differentiation on LR failure. Two patients died of acute toxicity of treatment and six patients developed grade 3/4 late complications affecting soft tissues only, yielding an actuarial expectation of complications of this severity at 5 years of 9%. No cases of osteoradionecrosis or myelitis were observed. Conclusion: This ART, which has proved easy to use at a number of large and small centres, has produced encouraging long-term LR control at a cost of limited soft tissue morbidity. (Copyright (c) 1998 Elsevier Science B.V., Amsterdam. All rights reserved.)

Impact of the Radiation Boost on Outcomes After Breast-Conserving Surgery and Radiation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Murphy, Colin; Anderson, Penny R.; Li Tianyu; Bleicher, Richard J.; Sigurdson, Elin R.; Goldstein, Lori J.; Swaby, Ramona; Denlinger, Crystal; Dushkin, Holly; Nicolaou, Nicos; Freedman, Gary M.

2011-01-01

Purpose: We examined the impact of radiation tumor bed boost parameters in early-stage breast cancer on local control and cosmetic outcomes. Methods and Materials: A total of 3,186 women underwent postlumpectomy whole-breast radiation with a tumor bed boost for Tis to T2 breast cancer from 1970 to 2008. Boost parameters analyzed included size, energy, dose, and technique. Endpoints were local control, cosmesis, and fibrosis. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to estimate actuarial incidence, and a Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine independent predictors of outcomes on multivariate analysis (MVA). The median follow-up was 78 months (range, 1-305 months). Results: The crude cosmetic results were excellent in 54%, good in 41%, and fair/poor in 5% of patients. The 10-year estimate of an excellent cosmesis was 66%. On MVA, independent predictors for excellent cosmesis were use of electron boost, lower electron energy, adjuvant systemic therapy, and whole-breast IMRT. Fibrosis was reported in 8.4% of patients. The actuarial incidence of fibrosis was 11% at 5 years and 17% at 10 years. On MVA, independent predictors of fibrosis were larger cup size and higher boost energy. The 10-year actuarial local failure was 6.3%. There was no significant difference in local control by boost method, cut-out size, dose, or energy. Conclusions: Likelihood of excellent cosmesis or fibrosis are associated with boost technique, electron energy, and cup size. However, because of high local control and rare incidence of fair/poor cosmesis with a boost, the anatomy of the patient and tumor cavity should ultimately determine the necessary boost parameters.

Long-Term Efficacy and Patterns of Failure After Accelerated Partial Breast Irradiation: A Molecular Assay-Based Clonality Evaluation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Vicini, Frank A.; Antonucci, J. Vito; Wallace, Michelle R.N.; Gilbert, Samuel; Goldstein, Neal S.; Kestin, Larry; Chen, Peter; Kunzman, Jonathan; Boike, Thomas; Benitez, Pamela; Martinez, Alvaro

2007-01-01

Purpose: To determine the long-term efficacy and cosmetic results of accelerated partial breast irradiation (APBI) by reviewing our institution's experience. Methods and Materials: A total of 199 patients with early-stage breast cancer were treated prospectively with adjuvant APBI after lumpectomy using interstitial brachytherapy. All patients had negative margins, 82% had Stage I disease, median tumor size was 1.1 cm, and 12% had positive lymph nodes. The median follow-up for surviving patients was 8.6 years. Fifty-three patients (27%) have been followed for ≥10 years. Results: Six ipsilateral breast tumor recurrences (IBTRs) were observed, for a 5-year and 10-year actuarial rate of 1.6% and 3.8%, respectively. A total of three regional nodal failures were observed, for a 10-year actuarial rate of 1.6%. Five contralateral breast cancers developed, for a 5- and 10-year actuarial rate of 2.2% and 5.2%, respectively. The type of IBTR (clonally related vs. clonally distinct) was analyzed using a polymerase chain reaction-based loss of heterozygosity assay. Eighty-three percent of IBTRs (n = 5) were classified as clonally related. Multiple clinical, pathologic, and treatment-related factors were analyzed for an association with the development of an IBTR, regional nodal failure, or contralateral breast cancer. On multivariate analysis, no variable was associated with any of these events. Cosmetic results were rated as excellent/good in 99% of patients. Conclusions: Long-term results with APBI using interstitial brachytherapy continue to demonstrate excellent long-term local and regional control rates and cosmetic results. According to a polymerase chain reaction-based loss of heterozygosity assay, 83% of recurrences were classified as clonally related

Long-term tolerance and outcomes for dose escalation in early salvage post-prostatectomy radiation therapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Safdieh, Joseph; Schwartz, David; Weiner, Joseph; Weiss, Jeffrey P.; Madeb, Isaac; Rotman, Marvin; Schreiber, David; Rineer, Justin

2014-01-01

To study the long-term outcomes and tolerance in our patients who received dose escalated radiotherapy in the early salvage post-prostatectomy setting. The medical records of 54 consecutive patients who underwent radical prostatectomy subsequently followed by salvage radiation therapy (SRT) to the prostate bed between 2003-2010 were analyzed. Patients included were required to have a pre-radiation prostate specific antigen level (PSA) of 2 ng/mL or less. The median SRT dose was 70.2 Gy. Biochemical failure after salvage radiation was defined as a PSA level >0.2 ng/mL. Biochemical control and survival endpoints were analyzed using the Kaplan-Meier method. Univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis were used to identify the potential impact of confounding factors on outcomes. The median pre-SRT PSA was 0.45 ng/mL and the median follow-up time was 71 months. The 4- and 7-year actuarial biochemical control rates were 75.7% and 63.2%, respectively. The actuarial 4- and 7-year distant metastasis-free survival was 93.7% and 87.0%, respectively, and the actuarial 7-year prostate cancer specific survival was 94.9%. Grade 3 late genitourinary toxicity developed in 14 patients (25.9%), while grade 4 late genitourinary toxicity developed in 2 patients (3.7%). Grade 3 late gastrointestinal toxicity developed in 1 patient (1.9%), and grade 4 late gastrointestinal toxicity developed in 1 patient (1.9%). In this series with long-term follow-up, early SRT provided outcomes and toxicity profiles similar to those reported from the three major randomized trials studying adjuvant radiation therapy.

Liquidity preference as rational behaviour under uncertainty

OpenAIRE

Mierzejewski, Fernando

2006-01-01

An important concern of macroeconomic analysis is how interest rates affect the cash balance demanded at a certain level of nominal income. In fact, the interest-rate- elasticity of the liquidity demand determines the effectiveness of monetary policy, which is useless under absolute liquidity preference, i.e. when the money demand is perfectly elastic. An actuarial approach is developed in this paper for dealing with random income. Assuming investors face liquidity constraints, a level of sur...

Imperfect Annuity Markets, Unintended Bequests, and the Optimal Age Structure of Social Security Benefits

OpenAIRE

Martin Feldstein

1989-01-01

The social security program now provides a constant real benefit throughout each retirees lifetime. This paper examines whether total welfare would rise if benefits were lower in early retirement years (when most individuals have some saving with which to finance consumption) and higher in later years (when the uncertainty of survival and the absence of actuarially fair private annuities makes the availability of social security benefits more important.) The analysis shows that there is a pot...

Fatigue, insomnia and hot flashes after definitive radiochemotherapy and image-guided adaptive brachytherapy for locally advanced cervical cancer: An analysis from the EMBRACE study.

Science.gov (United States)

Smet, Stéphanie; Pötter, Richard; Haie-Meder, Christine; Lindegaard, Jacob C; Schulz-Juergenliemk, Ina; Mahantshetty, Umesh; Segedin, Barbara; Bruheim, Kjersti; Hoskin, Peter; Rai, Bhavana; Huang, Fleur; Cooper, Rachel; van Limbergen, Erik; Tanderup, Kari; Kirchheiner, Kathrin

2018-04-04

To evaluate the pattern of manifestation of fatigue, insomnia and hot flashes within the prospective, observational, multi-center EMBRACE study. Morbidity was prospectively assessed according to CTCAE v.3 and patient-reported outcome with EORTC QLQ-C30/CX24 at baseline and regular follow-up. Analyses of crude incidence, prevalence rates and actuarial estimates were performed. A total of 1176 patients were analyzed with a median follow-up of 27 months. At baseline, CTCAE G1/G2 prevalence rates for fatigue were 29%/6.2%, for insomnia 18%/3.1% and for hot flashes 7.9%/1.6% with respective 3-year prevalence rates of 29%/6.8%, 17%/4.4% and 19%/5.9%. Similar patterns of manifestation were seen in patient-reported EORTC outcomes. The 3-year actuarial estimates for G ≥ 3 CTCAE fatigue, insomnia and hot flashes were 5.5%, 4.7% and 1.9%. Younger age was associated with significantly higher risk for fatigue, insomnia and hot flashes. Fatigue, insomnia and hot flashes occurred mainly in the mild to moderate range. Fatigue and insomnia were already present before treatment and showed minor fluctuations or recovery during follow-up, whereas hot flashes showed a considerable increase after treatment. More research is needed to evaluate contributing risk factors in order to define intervention strategies. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Manifestation Pattern of Early-Late Vaginal Morbidity After Definitive Radiation (Chemo)Therapy and Image-Guided Adaptive Brachytherapy for Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: An Analysis From the EMBRACE Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kirchheiner, Kathrin; Nout, Remi A.; Tanderup, Kari; Lindegaard, Jacob C.; Westerveld, Henrike; Haie-Meder, Christine; Petrič, Primož; Mahantshetty, Umesh; Dörr, Wolfgang; Pötter, Richard

2014-01-01

Background and Purpose: Brachytherapy in the treatment of locally advanced cervical cancer has changed substantially because of the introduction of combined intracavitary/interstitial applicators and an adaptive target concept, which is the focus of the prospective, multi-institutional EMBRACE study ( (www.embracestudy.dk)) on image-guided adaptive brachytherapy (IGABT). So far, little has been reported about the development of early to late vaginal morbidity in the frame of IGABT. Therefore, the aim of the present EMBRACE analysis was to evaluate the manifestation pattern of vaginal morbidity during the first 2 years of follow-up. Methods and Materials: In total, 588 patients with a median follow-up time of 15 months and information on vaginal morbidity were included. Morbidity was prospectively assessed at baseline, every 3 months during the first year, and every 6 months in the second year according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3, regarding vaginal stenosis, dryness, mucositis, bleeding, fistula, and other symptoms. Crude incidence rates, actuarial probabilities, and prevalence rates were analyzed. Results: At 2 years, the actuarial probability of severe vaginal morbidity (grade ≥3) was 3.6%. However, mild and moderate vaginal symptoms were still pronounced (grade ≥1, 89%; grade ≥2, 29%), of which the majority developed within 6 months. Stenosis was most frequently observed, followed by vaginal dryness. Vaginal bleeding and mucositis were mainly mild and infrequently reported. Conclusion: Severe vaginal morbidity within the first 2 years after definitive radiation (chemo)therapy including IGABT with intracavitary/interstitial techniques for locally advanced cervical cancer is limited and is significantly less than has been reported from earlier studies. Thus, the new adaptive target concept seems to be a safe treatment with regard to the vagina being an organ at risk. However, mild to moderate vaginal morbidity

Manifestation Pattern of Early-Late Vaginal Morbidity After Definitive Radiation (Chemo)Therapy and Image-Guided Adaptive Brachytherapy for Locally Advanced Cervical Cancer: An Analysis From the EMBRACE Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kirchheiner, Kathrin, E-mail: kathrin.kirchheiner@meduniwien.ac.at [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria); Nout, Remi A. [Department of Clinical Oncology, Leiden University Medical Center (Netherlands); Tanderup, Kari; Lindegaard, Jacob C. [Department of Oncology, Aarhus University Hospital (Denmark); Westerveld, Henrike [Department of Radiotherapy, Academic Medical Centre, University of Amsterdam (Netherlands); Haie-Meder, Christine [Department of Radiotherapy, Gustave-Roussy, Villejuif (France); Petrič, Primož [Department of Radiotherapy, Institute of Oncology Ljubljana (Slovenia); Department of Radiotherapy, National Center for Cancer Care and Research, Doha (Qatar); Mahantshetty, Umesh [Department of Radiation Oncology, Tata Memorial Hospital, Mumbai (India); Dörr, Wolfgang; Pötter, Richard [Department of Radiation Oncology, Comprehensive Cancer Center, Medical University of Vienna/General Hospital of Vienna (Austria); Christian Doppler Laboratory for Medical Radiation Research for Radiation Oncology, Medical University of Vienna (Austria)

2014-05-01

Background and Purpose: Brachytherapy in the treatment of locally advanced cervical cancer has changed substantially because of the introduction of combined intracavitary/interstitial applicators and an adaptive target concept, which is the focus of the prospective, multi-institutional EMBRACE study ( (www.embracestudy.dk)) on image-guided adaptive brachytherapy (IGABT). So far, little has been reported about the development of early to late vaginal morbidity in the frame of IGABT. Therefore, the aim of the present EMBRACE analysis was to evaluate the manifestation pattern of vaginal morbidity during the first 2 years of follow-up. Methods and Materials: In total, 588 patients with a median follow-up time of 15 months and information on vaginal morbidity were included. Morbidity was prospectively assessed at baseline, every 3 months during the first year, and every 6 months in the second year according to the Common Terminology Criteria for Adverse Events, version 3, regarding vaginal stenosis, dryness, mucositis, bleeding, fistula, and other symptoms. Crude incidence rates, actuarial probabilities, and prevalence rates were analyzed. Results: At 2 years, the actuarial probability of severe vaginal morbidity (grade ≥3) was 3.6%. However, mild and moderate vaginal symptoms were still pronounced (grade ≥1, 89%; grade ≥2, 29%), of which the majority developed within 6 months. Stenosis was most frequently observed, followed by vaginal dryness. Vaginal bleeding and mucositis were mainly mild and infrequently reported. Conclusion: Severe vaginal morbidity within the first 2 years after definitive radiation (chemo)therapy including IGABT with intracavitary/interstitial techniques for locally advanced cervical cancer is limited and is significantly less than has been reported from earlier studies. Thus, the new adaptive target concept seems to be a safe treatment with regard to the vagina being an organ at risk. However, mild to moderate vaginal morbidity

Council decisions on personnel policy and social responsibility: a harmony to be restored

CERN Multimedia

Staff Association

2014-01-01

    As explained in a previous article (Echo 195), in line with the Host State agreement between the Swiss Confederation and the Organization, the CERN Pension Fund must guarantee a pension insurance to its beneficiaries at least equivalent to that available in Switzerland. As the CERN Pension Fund is a capitalized defined benefit scheme, it is important to verify that the Fund is capable of guaranteeing the agreed benefits until the cessation of the rights of the last beneficiary. Therefore, the financial health of the Fund is reviewed at least once every three years by the Actuary, who, under the supervision of the Actuarial and Technical Commitee, must draw up an Actuarial Report that must be approved by the Pension Fund Governing Board (PFGB) before presentation to Finance Committee and Council. In this article we look at various important changes in the pension parameters that were decided by Council in the framework of changes in the Organization’s human resources&rs...

The effects of rational and experiential information processing of expert testimony in death penalty cases.

Science.gov (United States)

Krauss, Daniel A; Lieberman, Joel D; Olson, Jodi

2004-01-01

Past research examining the effects of actuarial and clinical expert testimony on defendants' dangerousness in Texas death penalty sentencing has found that jurors are more influenced by less scientific pure clinical expert testimony and less influenced by more scientific actuarial expert testimony (Krauss & Lee, 2003; Krauss & Sales, 2001). By applying cognitive-experiential self-theory (CEST) to juror decision-making, the present study was undertaken in an attempt to offer a theoretical rationale for these findings. Based on past CEST research, 163 mock jurors were either directed into a rational mode or experiential mode of processing. Consistent with CEST and inconsistent with previous research using the same stimulus materials, results demonstrate that jurors in a rational mode of processing more heavily weighted actuarial expert testimony in their dangerousness assessments, while those jurors in the experiential condition were more influenced by clinical expert testimony. The policy implications of these findings are discussed. Copyright 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Results of radical radiotherapy of oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma: experience at the clinical Puerta de Hierro (Spain)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Regueiro, C.A.; Valcarcel, F.J.; Millan, I.; Romero, J.; Torre, A. de la; Polo, E.; Magallon, R.; Aragon, G.

1994-01-01

We have reviewed the records of 251 patients with oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma treated with radical radiotherapy at the Department of Radiation Oncology of Clinica Puerta de Hierro between 1964 and 1989. The 3-year actuarial local control probability was 85% for the 29 T1-staged patients, 59% for the 89 T2-staged patients, 45% for the 71 T3-staged patients, and 43% for the 62 T4-staged patients. The 3-year actuarial nodal control probability was 86% for the 103 NO-staged patients treated electively, 66% for the 42 N1-staged patients, 60% for the 77 N2-staged patients, and 51% for the 20 N3-staged patients. The actuarial adjusted survival was 68% for the 17 stage I patients, 69% for the 48 stage II patients, 34% for the 57 stage III patients, and 33% for the 129 stage IV patients. Author (50 refs.)

Value-oriented risk management of insurance companies

CERN Document Server

Kriele, Marcus

2014-01-01

Value- and risk-oriented management is a holistic method of managing businesses. In this book both actuarial methods and methods pertaining to classical internal control and classical risk management are used. Therefore the approach taken is necessarily interdisciplinary. Indeed, there is a new dynamically developing field for actuaries as a result of the emphasis now on the measurement of risk. This book provides the required basic knowledge for this subject from an actuarial perspective. It enables the reader to implement in practice a risk management system that is based on quantitative methods. With this book, the reader will additionally be able to critically appraise the applicability and the limits of the methods used in modern risk management. Value- Oriented Risk Management of Insurance Companies focuses on risk capital, capital allocation, performance measurement and value-oriented management. It also makes a connection to regulatory developments (for example, Solvency II). The reader should have...

Pattern of failure following surgical resection of renal cell carcinoma

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Aref, I.; Bociek, G.; Salhani, D.

1996-01-01

Purpose/objective: To identify the pattern of failure in patients with resected renal cell carcinoma (RCC). Materials and Methods: The records of 116 patients with unilateral non-metastatic RCC, who were treated with definitive surgery and referred to the Ottawa Regional Cancer Centre between 1977 and 1988, were reviewed. Distribution by stage included: T1 = 3 patients, T2 = 42 patients, T3 =71 patients. The median follow-up was 44 months, with a range of 4-267 months. Results: Loco-regional failure (LRF) developed in 8 patients, yielding a 7-year actuarial incidence of 8% for LRF, as first event. Nine patients developed local or regional recurrence + distant failure, and 58 patients had distant metastases only. Seven-year actuarial incidence of distant failure was 55%. The overall 7-year actuarial survival rate was 40%, and cause-specific survival was 45%. Conclusion: LRF was rare following nephrectomy. This data does not support the role of adjuvant radiation therapy in this disease

Results of radiation therapy for uterine cervical cancer using high dose rate remote after loading system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Ogawa, Yoshihiro; Nemoto, Kenji

2003-01-01

In Japan, radiotherapy with high dose rate remote after loading system (HDR-RALS) for intracavitary brachytherapy is the standard treatment for more than 30 years. This report showed the usefulness of HDR-RALS for uterine cervical cancer. From 1980 through 1999, 442 patients with uterine cervical cancers (stage I: 66, stage II: 161, stage III: 165, stage IV: 50) were treated. Radiotherapy was performed both external teletherapy and HDR-RALS. Overall survival rate at 5 years was 60.2%. The 5-year actuarial incidence of all complications was 16.4%. The 5-year actuarial incidence of all complications in cases treated with the sum doses of whole pelvic irradiation (without central shield) and RALS up to 49 Gy, 50 to 59 Gy or larger doses were 7.5%, 11.0% and 25.2%, respectively. Radiation therapy using HDR-RALS was very effective. While the dose of whole pelvic irradiation was increased, the actuarial incidence of all complications was increased. (author)

Unmanaged care: towards moral fairness in health care coverage.

Science.gov (United States)

Hoffman, Sharona

2003-01-01

Health insurers are generally guided by the principle of "actuarial fairness," according to which they distinguish among various risks on the basis of cost-related factors. Thus, insurers often limit or deny coverage for vision care, hearing aids, mental health care, and even AIDS treatment based on actuarial justifications. Furthermore, approximately forty-two million Americans have no health insurance at all, because most of these individuals cannot afford the cost of insurance. This Article argues that Americans have come to demand more than actuarial fairness from health insurers and are increasingly concerned by what I call "moral fairness." This is evidenced by the hundreds of laws that have been passed to constrain insurers' discretion with respect to particular coverage decisions. Legislative mandates are frequent, but seemingly haphazard, following no systematic methodology. This Article suggests an analytical framework that can be utilized to determine which interventions are appropriate and evaluates a variety of means by which moral fairness could be promoted in the arena of health care coverage.

Pattern of failures in gastric cancer patients with lymph node involvement treated by surgery, intraoperative and external beam radiotherapy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Glehen, O.; Peyrat, P.; Beaujard, A.C.; Chapet, O.; Romestaing, P.; Sentenac, I.; Francois, Y.; Vignal, J.; Gerard, J.P.; Gilly, F.N.

2003-01-01

Aims: High local failure rates in gastric cancer have been reported, up to 67%. To achieve a better local control, we evaluated intraoperative radiotherapy (IORT) and external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) in association with surgery for gastric cancer patients with lymph node involvement. We report here the analysis of the patterns of failure for patients involved in this IORT protocol. Material and methods: Forty-two positive lymph node (N+) gastric cancer patients were operated on (31 total, three subtotal and eight extended gastrectomies) with IORT procedure between 1985 and 1997 (33 males, nine females, mean age 61.3 years). IORT was focused on coeliac area (mean dose 15 Gy), followed by EBRT (46 Gy) in 36 patients. Ten patients were pN1 and 32 were pN2. A concurrent systemic chemotherapy (five Fluoro-Uracil and Cisplatinum) was performed in 14 patients. Results: One patient died postoperatively. Actuarial pN+ 10 year survival rate was 44.8%. The 5 year actuarial local control and disease-free survival rates were 78.8 and 47.5%, respectively. As far as patterns of failure were explored, 5 patients have a local coeliac recurrence (12%) and 12 have distant metastases with no evidence of coeliac recurrence. Conclusion: This retrospective analysis suggests a potential effect of IORT and/or EBRT in promoting local control and long-term survival in gastric cancer patients with lymph node involvement

A multi-institutional analysis of complication outcomes after arteriovenous malformation radiosurgery

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Flickinger, John C.; Kondziolka, Douglas; Lunsford, L. Dade; Pollock, Bruce E.; Yamamoto, Masaaki; Gorman, Deborah A.; Schomberg, Paula J.; Sneed, Patricia; Larson, David; Smith, Vernon; McDermott, Michael W.; Miyawaki, Lloyd; Chilton, Jonathan; Morantz, Robert A.; Young, Byron; Jokura, Hidefumi; Liscak, Roman

1999-01-01

Purpose: To better understand radiation complications of arteriovenous malformation (AVM) radiosurgery and factors affecting their resolution. Methods and Materials: AVM patients (102/1255) who developed neurological sequelae after radiosurgery were studied. The median AVM marginal dose (D min ) was 19 Gy (range: 10-35). The median volume was 5.7 cc (range: 0.26-143). Median follow-up was 34 months (range: 9-140). Results: Complications consisted of 80/102 patients with evidence of radiation injury to the brain parenchyma (7 also with cranial nerve deficits, 12 also with seizures, 5 with cyst formation), 12/102 patients with isolated cranial neuropathies, and 10/102 patients with only new or worsened seizures. Severity was classified as minimal in 39 patients, mild in 40, disabling in 21, and fatal in 2 patients. Symptoms resolved completely in 42 patients for an actuarial resolution rate of 54% ± 7% at 3 years post-onset. Multivariate analysis identified significantly greater symptom resolution in patients with no prior history of hemorrhage (p = 0.01, 66% vs. 41%), and in patients with symptoms of minimal severity: headache or seizure as the only sequelae of radiosurgery (p < 0.0001, 88% vs. 34%). Conclusion: Late sequelae of radiosurgery manifest in varied ways. Further long-term studies of these problems are needed that take into account symptom severity and prior hemorrhage history

Nonparametric Bayesian inference for mean residual life functions in survival analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Poynor, Valerie; Kottas, Athanasios

2018-01-19

Modeling and inference for survival analysis problems typically revolves around different functions related to the survival distribution. Here, we focus on the mean residual life (MRL) function, which provides the expected remaining lifetime given that a subject has survived (i.e. is event-free) up to a particular time. This function is of direct interest in reliability, medical, and actuarial fields. In addition to its practical interpretation, the MRL function characterizes the survival distribution. We develop general Bayesian nonparametric inference for MRL functions built from a Dirichlet process mixture model for the associated survival distribution. The resulting model for the MRL function admits a representation as a mixture of the kernel MRL functions with time-dependent mixture weights. This model structure allows for a wide range of shapes for the MRL function. Particular emphasis is placed on the selection of the mixture kernel, taken to be a gamma distribution, to obtain desirable properties for the MRL function arising from the mixture model. The inference method is illustrated with a data set of two experimental groups and a data set involving right censoring. The supplementary material available at Biostatistics online provides further results on empirical performance of the model, using simulated data examples. © The Author 2018. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

An Iterative Procedure for Obtaining I-Projections onto the Intersection of Convex Sets.

Science.gov (United States)

1984-06-01

Dykstra Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science The University of Iowa Iowa City, Iowa 52242 Technical Report #106 June 1984D I e ELECTE lSEP...t Theorem ~ ~ 2.. Asm i where the 4 are closed, convex sets of PD’s and R d 0 is a nonnegative vector such that there exists a T E 4 where I(TIR) < M...PERFOMING ORGANIZATION NAME AND ADDRESS 1. PROGIRA ILEMNT. PROJECT. TAK Department of Statistics and Actuarial Science AEAS a WORK UNIT Numaa The

Conduct and Accountability; A Report to the President.

Science.gov (United States)

1986-06-01

31.0 15.3 Not Applicable 4.0 -T Total 206.0 100.0 QUESTION 70-How often have reviews been made of compensation plans requiring actuarial computations...including data submitted to actuaries and assumptions made? PLANNED FOR FISCAL YEAR 1986 Count % Count % >3 During Last FY 19.0 13.1 Yes 86.0 61.9 1-2...contractors’ costs, both of which are asm a r c has c tice subjct o ths stdy. assumed a role which has contributed toa particularly relevant to the

Accelerated fractionation in cancers of the esophagus: a multivariate analysis on 102 patients

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Girinsky, T.; Marsiglia, H.; Auperin, A.

1995-01-01

Purpose: Clinical outcome of cancer of the esophagus treated with conventional fractionated radiotherapy is dismal. Locoregional recurrences remain a major unresolved issue. Although data are scarce, potential doubling times of the squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus appear to be generally rather short. Accelerated fractionation was used to shorten the conventional overall treatment time by two and half weeks (38% reduction of the treatment time) to counteract possible tumor cell repopulation. Materials and Methods: 102 patients with cancer of the esophagus not submitted to surgery for medical reasons or because of extensive disease. (locoregional or metastases) were entered in the study between 1986 and 1993. There were 27T1, 36T2 and 39T3 tumors, 10% of which were already metastatic. 89% of the patients had a squamous cell carcinoma and 11% an adenocarcinoma. Loss of weight about superior or equal to 10% occurred in 39% of the patients. In 63% of the cases neoadjuvant chemotherapy was given prior to radiation treatment. Radiation treatment delivered a mean dose of 66 Gy (SE=6.4), median dose of 65 Gy. The mean overall treatment time was 32.6 days (SE=6.2), median 31 days. A concomitant boost was used during the basic wide field irradiation to accelerate treatment. Results: Acute toxicity was mainly esophageal. Esophagitis grade III was observed in 17% of the patients and lasted 2 to 3 weeks. Radiation treatment was temporarily stopped in 8% of the patients due to esophagitis and was usually resumed a week later. Previous chemotherapy did not seem to significantly increase the occurrence of esophagitis. Of 82 evaluable patients, 56% had complete tumor regression 2 to 4 months after radiation treatment. There was no strict correlation between response after chemotherapy and the subsequent response after radiotherapy. The actuarial 3-year cause specific survival rates for T1, T2, T3 are 34%, 18.5% and 5% respectively. The actuarial 3-year local control rates

Accelerated fractionation in cancers of the esophagus: a multivariate analysis on 102 patients

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Girinsky, T; Marsiglia, H; Auperin, A

1995-07-01

Purpose: Clinical outcome of cancer of the esophagus treated with conventional fractionated radiotherapy is dismal. Locoregional recurrences remain a major unresolved issue. Although data are scarce, potential doubling times of the squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus appear to be generally rather short. Accelerated fractionation was used to shorten the conventional overall treatment time by two and half weeks (38% reduction of the treatment time) to counteract possible tumor cell repopulation. Materials and Methods: 102 patients with cancer of the esophagus not submitted to surgery for medical reasons or because of extensive disease. (locoregional or metastases) were entered in the study between 1986 and 1993. There were 27T1, 36T2 and 39T3 tumors, 10% of which were already metastatic. 89% of the patients had a squamous cell carcinoma and 11% an adenocarcinoma. Loss of weight about superior or equal to 10% occurred in 39% of the patients. In 63% of the cases neoadjuvant chemotherapy was given prior to radiation treatment. Radiation treatment delivered a mean dose of 66 Gy (SE=6.4), median dose of 65 Gy. The mean overall treatment time was 32.6 days (SE=6.2), median 31 days. A concomitant boost was used during the basic wide field irradiation to accelerate treatment. Results: Acute toxicity was mainly esophageal. Esophagitis grade III was observed in 17% of the patients and lasted 2 to 3 weeks. Radiation treatment was temporarily stopped in 8% of the patients due to esophagitis and was usually resumed a week later. Previous chemotherapy did not seem to significantly increase the occurrence of esophagitis. Of 82 evaluable patients, 56% had complete tumor regression 2 to 4 months after radiation treatment. There was no strict correlation between response after chemotherapy and the subsequent response after radiotherapy. The actuarial 3-year cause specific survival rates for T1, T2, T3 are 34%, 18.5% and 5% respectively. The actuarial 3-year local control rates

Risk of isolated nodal failure for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with the elective nodal irradiation (ENI) using 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT) techniques--a retrospective analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Kepka, Lucyna; Bujko, Krzysztof; Zolciak-Siwinska, Agnieszka

2008-01-01

To estimate retrospectively the rate of isolated nodal failures (INF) in NSCLC patients treated with the elective nodal irradiation (ENI) using 3D-conformal radiotherapy (3D-CRT). One hundred and eighty-five patients with I-IIIB stage treated with 3D-CRT in consecutive clinical trials differing in an extent of the ENI were analyzed. According to the extent of the ENI, two groups were distinguished: extended (n = 124) and limited (n = 61) ENI. INF was defined as regional nodal failure occurring without local progression. Cumulative Incidence of INF (CIINF) was evaluated by univariate and multivariate analysis with regard to prognostic factors. With a median follow up of 30 months, the two-year actuarial overall survival was 35%. The two-year CIINF rate was 12%. There were 16 (9%) INF, eight (6%) for extended and eight (13%) for limited ENI. In the univariate analysis bulky mediastinal disease (BMD), left side, higher N stage, and partial response to RT had a significant negative impact on the CIINF. BMD was the only independent predictor of the risk of incidence of the INF (p = 0.001). INF is more likely to occur in case of more advanced nodal status.

Forecasting Macroeconomic Labour Market Flows

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Wilke, Ralf

2017-01-01

Forecasting labour market flows is important for budgeting and decision-making in government departments and public administration. Macroeconomic forecasts are normally obtained from time series data. In this article, we follow another approach that uses individual-level statistical analysis...... to predict the number of exits out of unemployment insurance claims. We present a comparative study of econometric, actuarial and statistical methodologies that base on different data structures. The results with records of the German unemployment insurance suggest that prediction based on individual-level...

Effect of temporal dependence and seasonality on return level estimates of excessive rainfall

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Khuluse, S

2009-08-01

Full Text Available and Actuarial Science August 20, 2009 EVT The rationale for modelling extreme values Overview of Extreme Value Theory Application The End! Outline 1 The rationale for modelling extreme values 2 Overview of Extreme Value Theory 3 Application 4 The End... Roles of Risk and Decision Analyses in Decision Support. Decision Analysis, 3(4):220-232. International Council for Science Regional Office for Africa (2007). Science Plan on Natural and Human-Induced Hazards and Disasters in sub-Saharan Africa. IPCC...

Management of hilar bile duct carcinoma with high-dose radiotherapy and expandable metallic stent placement

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Saito, Hiroya; Takamura, Akio

2000-01-01

This article describes our experience with high-dose radiotherapy in combination with the placement of expandable metallic stents (EMS) in the management of hilar bile duct carcinoma. Between 1988 and 1999, 107 consecutive patients with hilar bile duct carcinoma were treated with EMS placement either alone or in combination with high-dose radiotherapy. External beam radiotherapy (EBRT) was indicated in 101 patients, and in 86 this was combined with intraluminal 192 Ir irradiation (ILRT, 59-98 Gy) EMS were placed after the completion of radiotherapy. The 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year actuarial survival rates for the radiotherapy group were 66.4%, 23.4%, 15.6%, 7.8%, respectively, and the 1- and 2-year actuarial survival rates for the nonradiotherapy group were 66.4% and 0%, respectively. The placement of EMS was useful for the early establishment of an internal bile passage in radically irradiated patients and the 1-, 2-, 3-, and 5-year actuarial patency rates for the radiotherapy group were 56.3%, 45.3%, 35.2%, and 23.4%, respectively, and the 1- and 2-year actuarial patency rates for the non radiotherapy group were 50.0% and 0% respectively. High-dose radiotherapy, consisting of ILRT and EBRT, appears to be feasible in the management of hilar bile duct carcinoma, and it offers a survival advantage for patients no suited for surgical resection. The placement of EMS assists the internal bile flow and lengthens survival after high-dose radiotherapy. (author)

Results of the radiotheraphy of the supraglottic larynx carcinomas observed at the Radiotherapy Department of the District Hospital of Varese (Italy)

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cosentino, D.; Scandolaro, L.; Cazzaniga, F.

1987-01-01

The authors review the supraglottic laryngeal carcinomas examined in the Radiotherapy Department of the Ospedale Regionale of Varese, Italy, from 1979 to 1984. 255 patients have been monitored: 80 considered for radiotherapy alone and 77 for postoperatory radiotherapy treatment. The cumulative actuarial survival (pcs) after 60 months, for patients treated only with radiotherapy, is 0.66 +- e.s. 0.07; for patients treated with post-operative radiotherapy the cumulative actuarial survival (pcs) after 60 months is 0.49 +- e.s. 0.11. The irradiation techniques are described and the results achived fully discussed

Macroscopic Hematuria After Conventional or Hypofractionated Radiation Therapy: Results From a Prospective Phase 3 Study

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Sanguineti, Giuseppe, E-mail: sanguineti@ifo.it [Department of Radiation Oncology, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy); Arcidiacono, Fabio [Department of Radiation Oncology, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy); Landoni, Valeria [Department of Physics, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy); Saracino, Bianca Maria; Farneti, Alessia; Arcangeli, Stefano; Petrongari, Maria Grazia; Gomellini, Sara [Department of Radiation Oncology, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy); Strigari, Lidia [Department of Physics, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy); Arcangeli, Giorgio [Department of Radiation Oncology, Regina Elena National Cancer Institute, Rome (Italy)

2016-10-01

Purpose: To assess the macroscopic hematuria rates within a single-institution randomized phase 3 trial comparing dose-escalated, conventionally fractionated radiation therapy (CFRT) and moderately hypofractionated radiation therapy (MHRT) for localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Patients with intermediate- to high-risk localized prostate cancer were treated with conformal RT and short-course androgen deprivation. Both the prostate and the entire seminal vesicles were treated to 80 Gy in 40 fractions over 8 weeks (CFRT) or 62 Gy in 20 fractions over 5 weeks (MHRT). The endpoint of the present study was the development of any episode or grade of macroscopic hematuria. The median follow-up period was 93 months (range 6-143). Results: Macroscopic hematuria was reported by 25 of 168 patients (14.9%). The actuarial estimate of hematuria at 8 years was 17.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.7%-23.3%). The number of patients with hematuria was 6 and 19 in the CFRT and MHRT arms, respectively, for an actuarial 8-year estimate of 9.7% and 24.3%, respectively (hazard ratio 3.468, 95% CI 1.385-8.684; P=.008). Overall, 8 of 25 patients were found to have biopsy-proven urothelial carcinoma (3 in the CFRT arm and 5 in the MHRT arm; P=.27). Thus, the 8-year actuarial incidence of macroscopic hematuria (after censoring urothelial cancer–related episodes) was 4.1% and 18.2% after CFRT and MHRT, respectively (hazard ratio 4.961, 95% CI 1.426-17.263; P=.012). The results were confirmed by multivariate analysis after accounting for several patient-, treatment-, and tumor-related covariates. Conclusions: MHRT was associated with a statistically significant increased risk of macroscopic hematuria compared with CFRT.

Radiation therapy for early stage Hodgkin's disease: Australasian patterns of care

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Barton, Michael; Boyages, John; Crennan, Elizabeth; Davis, Sidney; Fisher, Richard J; Hook, Carolyn; Johnson, Neva; Joseph, David; Liew, Kuen H; Morgan, Graeme; O' Brien, Peter; Pendlebury, Sue; Pratt, Gary; Quong, George; Thornton, Deborah; Walker, Quenten; Wallington, Margaret; Trotter, Grant

1995-01-15

Purpose: Analysis of treatment outcome for Stage I-IIA supradiaphragmatic Hodgkin's disease treated solely by irradiation in Australia and New Zealand. Methods and Materials: Patients with supradiaphragmatic Hodgkin's disease only who were treated by irradiation alone with curative intent between 1969 to 1988 were retrospectively reviewed. Ten radiation oncology departments in Australia and New Zealand contributed patient data to the study. Patient, tumor, and treatment variables were recorded. Disease-free interval, survival, and complications were analyzed. Results: Eight hundred and twenty patients were reviewed. The median age was 29 years. There were 437 men and 383 women. The distribution of 310 clinically staged patients was 170 stage IA, 5 IB, and 135 IIA. Five hundred and ten patients received laparotomies, and pathologic staging was as follows: IA 214, IB 13, IIA 283. The 10-year acturial disease-free rate was 69% and overall survival rate was 79%. Increasing age, male sex, higher number of involved sites, the use of involved field irradiation, no staging laparotomy, and earlier year of treatment were significantly associated with an increased risk of relapse and lower survival. Actuarial 10-year survival following recurrence was 48%. Acute complications requiring interruption to treatment occurred in 46 patients (6%), but < 1% had their treatment permanently suspended. Actuarial complication rates at 10 years were: cardiac 2%, pulmonary 3% and thyroid 5%. There were 44 second malignancies including 10 non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, 3 leukemias, 7 lung, and 6 breast cancers. Mean delay to the development of a second cancer was 6 years. The 10-year actuarial rate of second malignancy was 5%. Conclusions: The Australasian experience of early stage Hodgkin's disease is consistent with the results in the published literature and confirms that irradiation produces a high cure rate with minimal toxicity.

Macroscopic Hematuria After Conventional or Hypofractionated Radiation Therapy: Results From a Prospective Phase 3 Study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sanguineti, Giuseppe; Arcidiacono, Fabio; Landoni, Valeria; Saracino, Bianca Maria; Farneti, Alessia; Arcangeli, Stefano; Petrongari, Maria Grazia; Gomellini, Sara; Strigari, Lidia; Arcangeli, Giorgio

2016-01-01

Purpose: To assess the macroscopic hematuria rates within a single-institution randomized phase 3 trial comparing dose-escalated, conventionally fractionated radiation therapy (CFRT) and moderately hypofractionated radiation therapy (MHRT) for localized prostate cancer. Methods and Materials: Patients with intermediate- to high-risk localized prostate cancer were treated with conformal RT and short-course androgen deprivation. Both the prostate and the entire seminal vesicles were treated to 80 Gy in 40 fractions over 8 weeks (CFRT) or 62 Gy in 20 fractions over 5 weeks (MHRT). The endpoint of the present study was the development of any episode or grade of macroscopic hematuria. The median follow-up period was 93 months (range 6-143). Results: Macroscopic hematuria was reported by 25 of 168 patients (14.9%). The actuarial estimate of hematuria at 8 years was 17.0% (95% confidence interval [CI] 10.7%-23.3%). The number of patients with hematuria was 6 and 19 in the CFRT and MHRT arms, respectively, for an actuarial 8-year estimate of 9.7% and 24.3%, respectively (hazard ratio 3.468, 95% CI 1.385-8.684; P=.008). Overall, 8 of 25 patients were found to have biopsy-proven urothelial carcinoma (3 in the CFRT arm and 5 in the MHRT arm; P=.27). Thus, the 8-year actuarial incidence of macroscopic hematuria (after censoring urothelial cancer–related episodes) was 4.1% and 18.2% after CFRT and MHRT, respectively (hazard ratio 4.961, 95% CI 1.426-17.263; P=.012). The results were confirmed by multivariate analysis after accounting for several patient-, treatment-, and tumor-related covariates. Conclusions: MHRT was associated with a statistically significant increased risk of macroscopic hematuria compared with CFRT.

The effect of local control on metastatic dissemination in carcinoma of the prostate: Long-term results in patients treated with 125I implantation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fuks, Z.; Leibel, S.A.; Wallner, K.E.; Begg, C.B.; Fair, W.R.; Anderson, L.L.; Hilaris, B.S.; Whitmore, W.F.

1991-01-01

The study evaluates the effect of the locally recurring tumor on the incidence of metastatic disease in early stage carcinoma of the prostate. The probability of distant metastases was studied in 679 patients with Stage B-C/N0 carcinoma of the prostate treated at MSKCC between 1970 and 1985 (median follow-up of 97 months). Patients were staged with pelvic lymph node dissection and treated with retropubic 125I implantation. The actuarial distant metastases free survival (DMFS) for patients at risk at 15 years after initial therapy was 37%. Cox proportional hazard regression analysis of covariates affecting the metastatic outcome showed that local failure, used in the model as a time dependent variable, was the most significant covariate, although stage, grade, and implant volume were also found to be independent variables. The relative risk of metastatic spread subsequent to local failure was 4-fold increased compared to the risk without evidence of local relapse. The 15-year actuarial DMFS in 351 patients with local control was 77% compared to 24% in 328 patients who developed local relapses (p less than 0.00001). The relation of distant spread to the local outcome was observed regardless of stage, grade, or implant dose. Even stage B1/N0-Grade I patient with local control showed a 15-year actuarial DMFS of 82%, compared to 22% in patients with local relapse (p less than 0.00001). The median local relapse-free survival (LRFS) in the 268 patients with local recurrences who did not receive hormonal therapy before distant metastases were detected was 51 months, compared to a median of 71 months for DMFS in the same patients (p less than 0.001), consistent with the possibility that distant dissemination may develop secondary to local failure

Comparison of the outcome and morbidity for localized or locally advanced prostate cancer treated by high-dose-rate brachytherapy plus external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) versus EBRT alone

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fang Fumin; Wang Yuming; Wang Chongjong; Huang Hsuanying; Chiang Pohui

2008-01-01

The objective of this study was to compare the survival, gastrointestinal (GI) and genitourinary (GU) toxicity for localized or locally advanced prostate cancer treated by high-dose-rate-brachytherapy (HDR-BT) plus external beam radiotherapy (EBRT) versus EBRT alone at a single institute in Taiwan. Eighty-eight patients with T1c-T3b prostate cancer consecutively treated by EBRT alone (33 patients) or HDR-BT+EBRT (55 patients) were studied. The median dose of EBRT was 70.2 Gy in the EBRT group and 50.4 Gy in the HDR-BT group. HDR-BT was performed 2-3 weeks before EBRT, with 12.6 Gy in three fractions over 24 h. Five patients (15.2%) in the EBRT group and seven (12.7%) in the HDR-BT group developed a biochemical relapse. The 5-year actuarial biochemical relapse-free survival rates were 65.0% in the EBRT group and 66.7% in the HDR-BT group (P=0.76). The 5-year actuarial likelihood of late ≥Grade 2 and ≥Grade 3 GI toxicity in the EBRT versus HDR-BT group was 62.8 versus 7.7% (P<0.001) and 19.6 versus 0% (P=0.001), respectively. In a multivariate analysis, the only predictor for late GI toxicity was the mode of RT. The 5-year actuarial likelihood of late ≥Grade 2 and ≥Grade 3 GU toxicity in the EBRT versus HDR-BT group was 14.8 versus 15.9% (P=0.86) and 3.6 versus 8.5% (P=0.40), respectively. The addition of HDR-BT before EBRT with a reduced dose from the EBRT produces a comparable survival outcome and GU toxicity but a significantly less GI toxicity for prostate cancer patients. (author)

Radiation therapy for early stage Hodgkin's disease: Australasian patterns of care

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Barton, Michael; Boyages, John; Crennan, Elizabeth; Davis, Sidney; Fisher, Richard J.; Hook, Carolyn; Johnson, Neva; Joseph, David; Liew, Kuen H.; Morgan, Graeme; O'Brien, Peter; Pendlebury, Sue; Pratt, Gary; Quong, George; Thornton, Deborah; Walker, Quenten; Wallington, Margaret; Trotter, Grant

1995-01-01

Purpose: Analysis of treatment outcome for Stage I-IIA supradiaphragmatic Hodgkin's disease treated solely by irradiation in Australia and New Zealand. Methods and Materials: Patients with supradiaphragmatic Hodgkin's disease only who were treated by irradiation alone with curative intent between 1969 to 1988 were retrospectively reviewed. Ten radiation oncology departments in Australia and New Zealand contributed patient data to the study. Patient, tumor, and treatment variables were recorded. Disease-free interval, survival, and complications were analyzed. Results: Eight hundred and twenty patients were reviewed. The median age was 29 years. There were 437 men and 383 women. The distribution of 310 clinically staged patients was 170 stage IA, 5 IB, and 135 IIA. Five hundred and ten patients received laparotomies, and pathologic staging was as follows: IA 214, IB 13, IIA 283. The 10-year acturial disease-free rate was 69% and overall survival rate was 79%. Increasing age, male sex, higher number of involved sites, the use of involved field irradiation, no staging laparotomy, and earlier year of treatment were significantly associated with an increased risk of relapse and lower survival. Actuarial 10-year survival following recurrence was 48%. Acute complications requiring interruption to treatment occurred in 46 patients (6%), but < 1% had their treatment permanently suspended. Actuarial complication rates at 10 years were: cardiac 2%, pulmonary 3% and thyroid 5%. There were 44 second malignancies including 10 non-Hodgkin's lymphomas, 3 leukemias, 7 lung, and 6 breast cancers. Mean delay to the development of a second cancer was 6 years. The 10-year actuarial rate of second malignancy was 5%. Conclusions: The Australasian experience of early stage Hodgkin's disease is consistent with the results in the published literature and confirms that irradiation produces a high cure rate with minimal toxicity

Isolated mitral valve replacement with the Kay-Shiley disc. valve. Acturial analysis of the long term results.

Science.gov (United States)

Wellons, H A; Strauch, R S; Nolan, S P; Muller, W H

1975-11-01

During a five-year period the Kay-Shiley (K and T series) prosthesis was used for 83 isolated mitral valve replacements. There were 14 early deaths, for a 17.28 per cent mortality rate. Survival determined by the actuarial method revealed a 6 year cumulative survival rate of 39.8 per cent. Thromboembolism was a significant problem in this series, with 33 patients experiencing a total of 55 embolic events. This represented a rate of 24.7 emboli per 1,000 patient months at risk. From our experience, it is concluded that the Kay-Shiley prosthesis is associated with a high incidence of thromboembolism and late death.

A flexible model for actuarial risks under dependence

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Albers, Willem/Wim; Kallenberg, W.C.M.; Lukocius, V.

Methods for computing risk measures, such as stop-loss premiums, tacitly assume independence of the underlying individual risks. This can lead to huge errors even when only small dependencies occur. In the present paper, a general model is developed which covers what happens in practice in a

The Evolution of an Undergraduate Actuarial Mathematics Program

Science.gov (United States)

Kennedy, Kristin; Schumacher, Phyllis

2014-01-01

Bryant University was originally a school for business majors and offered only a few mathematics courses. After becoming accredited by the New England Association of Colleges and Universities in the 1960s, the college was required to upgrade its offerings in the area of mathematics. In the 1970s, the department offerings were increased to include…

FADUN, Olajide Solomon Department of Actuarial Science and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DGS-FUTO

2018-06-01

Jun 1, 2018 ... School of Management & Business Studies. Lagos State Polytechnic. Abstract ... Statistical Bulletin and Nigeria Insurers Digest are used for the study.Pearson‟s ..... Australian Journal of Business and. Management. Research ...

FADUN, Olajide Solomon Department of Actuarial Science and ...

African Journals Online (AJOL)

DGS-FUTO

2018-06-01

Jun 1, 2018 ... managing consequences of insurable risks associated with personal and ... assured contingencies (uncertainties or losses) in exchange for premium paid by the .... not determined but in their view, potential causes are country specific in terms of cultural, ..... Essentials of contemporary management (7 th ed.) ...