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Sample records for activity indicator model

  1. Predicting geomagnetic activity indices

    Complete text of publication follows. Magnetically active times, e.g., Kp > 5, are notoriously difficult to predict, precisely the times when such predictions are crucial to the space weather users. Taking advantage of the routinely available solar wind measurements at Lagrangian point (L1) and nowcast Kps, Kp and Dst forecast models based on neural networks were developed with the focus on improving the forecast for active times. To satisfy different needs and operational constraints, three models were developed: (1) a model that inputs nowcast Kp and solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead; (2) a model with the same input as model 1 and predicts Kp 4 hr ahead; and (3) a model that inputs only solar wind parameters and predicts Kp 1 hr ahead (the exact prediction lead time depends on the solar wind speed and the location of the solar wind monitor.) Extensive evaluations of these models and other major operational Kp forecast models show that, while the new models can predict Kps more accurately for all activities, the most dramatic improvements occur for moderate and active times. Similar Dst models were developed. Information dynamics analysis of Kp, suggests that geospace is more dominated by internal dynamics near solar minimum than near solar maximum, when it is more directly driven by external inputs, namely solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF).

  2. Metal ion site engineering indicates a global toggle switch model for seven-transmembrane receptor activation

    Elling, Christian E; Frimurer, Thomas M; Gerlach, Lars-Ole;

    2006-01-01

    to form high affinity metal ion sites in both the bidentate and potential tridentate settings. This indicates that the residues involved in the main ligand-binding pocket will have to move closer to each other during receptor activation. On the basis of the distance constraints from these activating metal...

  3. Chromospheric activity as age indicator

    Pace, Giancarlo

    2013-01-01

    Chromospheric activity has been calibrated and widely used as age indicator. However, it has been suggested that the viability of such an age indicator is, in the best case, limited to stars younger than about 1.5 Gyr. I aim to define the age range for which chromospheric activity is a robust astrophysical clock. I collected literature measurements of the S-index in field stars, which is a measure of the strength of the H and K lines of the Ca II and a proxy for chromospheric activity, and exploited the homogeneous database of temperature and age determinations for field stars provided by the Geneva-Copenhagen survey of the Solar neighbourhood. Field data, inclusive data previously used to calibrate chromospheric ages, confirm the result found using open cluster data, i.e. there is no decay of chromospheric activity after about 2 Gyr. The only existing indication supporting the viability of chromospheric ages larger than 2 Gyr, is the similarity of chromospheric activity levels in the components of 35 dwarf b...

  4. West African monsoon intraseasonal activity and its daily precipitation indices in regional climate models: diagnostics and challenges

    Poan, E. D.; Gachon, P.; Dueymes, G.; Diaconescu, E.; Laprise, R.; Seidou Sanda, I.

    2016-02-01

    The West African monsoon intraseasonal variability has huge socio-economic impacts on local populations but understanding and predicting it still remains a challenge for the weather prediction and climate scientific community. This paper analyses an ensemble of simulations from six regional climate models (RCMs) taking part in the coordinated regional downscaling experiment, the ECMWF ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAI) and three satellite-based and observationally-constrained daily precipitation datasets, to assess the performance of the RCMs with regard to the intraseasonal variability. A joint analysis of seasonal-mean precipitation and the total column water vapor (also called precipitable water—PW) suggests the existence of important links at different timescales between these two variables over the Sahel and highlights the relevance of using PW to follow the monsoon seasonal cycle. RCMs that fail to represent the seasonal-mean position and amplitude of the meridional gradient of PW show the largest discrepancies with respect to seasonal-mean observed precipitation. For both ERAI and RCMs, spectral decompositions of daily PW as well as rainfall show an overestimation of low-frequency activity (at timescales longer than 10 days) at the expense of the synoptic (timescales shorter than 10 days) activity. Consequently, the effects of the African Easterly Waves and the associated mesoscale convective systems are substantially underestimated, especially over continental regions. Finally, the study investigates the skill of the models with respect to hydro-climatic indices related to the occurrence, intensity and frequency of precipitation events at the intraseasonal scale. Although most of these indices are generally better reproduced with RCMs than reanalysis products, this study indicates that RCMs still need to be improved (especially with respect to their subgrid-scale parameterization schemes) to be able to reproduce the intraseasonal variance spectrum adequately.

  5. Caries activity indicators. A review.

    Wyne A; Guile E

    1993-01-01

    Caries activity is the sum total of new carious lesions and the enlargement of existing cavities during a given time. An objective evaluation of caries activity requires clinical examination of quantification of factors associated with the pathogenesis of caries. Caries activity tests have been in use in dental research and clinical dentistry for years. They are useful in establishing categories of risk for caries, and for targeting specific preventive measures to these groups. They are even ...

  6. Analysis and modeling of active occupancy of the residential sector in Spain: An indicator of residential electricity consumption

    The growing energy consumption in the residential sector represents about 30% of global demand. This calls for Demand Side Management solutions propelling change in behaviors of end consumers, with the aim to reduce overall consumption as well as shift it to periods in which demand is lower and where the cost of generating energy is lower. Demand Side Management solutions require detailed knowledge about the patterns of energy consumption. The profile of electricity demand in the residential sector is highly correlated with the time of active occupancy of the dwellings; therefore in this study the occupancy patterns in Spanish properties was determined using the 2009–2010 Time Use Survey (TUS), conducted by the National Statistical Institute of Spain. The survey identifies three peaks in active occupancy, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. This information has been used to input into a stochastic model which generates active occupancy profiles of dwellings, with the aim to simulate domestic electricity consumption. TUS data were also used to identify which appliance-related activities could be considered for Demand Side Management solutions during the three peaks of occupancy. -- Highlights: •Active occupancy profiles of Spanish dwellings has been obtained and modeled from Time Use Survey data. •Occupancy profiles resulting from the model can be used to model domestic energy consumption. •The presence of three peaks of active occupation was verified, which coincide with morning, noon and evening. •Manual and incentive-based DSM programmes are considered the most suitable for Spanish dwellings. •TV electricity consumption becomes important at aggregate level

  7. Heme oxygenase activity and some indices of antioxidant protection in rat liver and kidney in glycerol model of rhabdomyolysis.

    Kaliman, P A; Strel'chenko, E V; Nikitchenko, I V; Filimonenko, V P

    2003-01-01

    Activity of heme oxygenase, superoxide dismutase, and catalase, the content of reduced glutathione and total heme in the liver and kidneys, and serum absorption spectrum in the Soret band were studied in rats with glycerol-induced rhabdomyolysis. Glycerol increased the content of heme-containing metabolites in the serum and the total heme content in the liver and kidneys, and decreased the content of reduced glutathione and catalase activity in the examined organs. Superoxide dismutase activity increased in the liver and decreased in the kidneys. Heme oxygenase activity increased in the liver and kidneys 2 and 6 h postinjection, respectively. The effects of heme delivered to the liver and kidneys from the vascular bed on the antioxidant defense and heme oxygenase activity were studied. PMID:12717508

  8. Model performance indicators ERP systems

    Yaghubi, Setare; Modiri, Nasser; Rafighi, Masoud

    2014-01-01

    Implementation process ERP is complex and expensive process. Typically always be faced with many failures. Successfully implemented in an organization has many challenges. Organizations in the deployment and success of the system depends on several factors.One of the key factors in the successful deployment of systems methodology is the implementation process. Methodology has several indicators for successful implementation of ERP systems, we have examined. And indicators for each of the meth...

  9. Should researchers use single indicators, best indicators, or multiple indicators in structural equation models?

    Hayduk Leslie A

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Structural equation modeling developed as a statistical melding of path analysis and factor analysis that obscured a fundamental tension between a factor preference for multiple indicators and path modeling’s openness to fewer indicators. Discussion Multiple indicators hamper theory by unnecessarily restricting the number of modeled latents. Using the few best indicators – possibly even the single best indicator of each latent – encourages development of theoretically sophisticated models. Additional latent variables permit stronger statistical control of potential confounders, and encourage detailed investigation of mediating causal mechanisms. Summary We recommend the use of the few best indicators. One or two indicators are often sufficient, but three indicators may occasionally be helpful. More than three indicators are rarely warranted because additional redundant indicators provide less research benefit than single indicators of additional latent variables. Scales created from multiple indicators can introduce additional problems, and are prone to being less desirable than either single or multiple indicators.

  10. Patch-occupancy models indicate human activity as major determinant of forest elephant Loxodonta cyclotis seasonal distribution in an industrial corridor in Gabon

    Buij, R.; McShea, W.J.; Campbell, P.; Lee, M.E.; Dallmeier, F.; Guimondou, S.; Mackaga, L.; Guisseougou, N.; Mboumba, S.; Hines, J.E.; Nichols, J.D.; Alonso, A.

    2007-01-01

    The importance of human activity and ecological features in influencing African forest elephant ranging behaviour was investigated in the Rabi-Ndogo corridor of the Gamba Complex of Protected Areas in southwest Gabon. Locations in a wide geographical area with a range of environmental variables were selected for patch-occupancy surveys using elephant dung to assess seasonal presence and absence of elephants. Patch-occupancy procedures allowed for covariate modelling evaluating hypotheses for both occupancy in relation to human activity and ecological features, and detection probability in relation to vegetation density. The best fitting models for old and fresh dung data sets indicate that (1) detection probability for elephant dung is negatively related to the relative density of the vegetation, and (2) human activity, such as presence and infrastructure, are more closely associated with elephant distribution patterns than are ecological features, such as the presence of wetlands and preferred fresh fruit. Our findings emphasize the sensitivity of elephants to human disturbance, in this case infrastructure development associated with gas and oil production. Patch-occupancy methodology offers a viable alternative to current transect protocols for monitoring programs with multiple covariates.

  11. Modeling Chaotic Behavior of Chittagong Stock Indices

    Shipra Banik

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Stock market prediction is an important area of financial forecasting, which attracts great interest to stock buyers and sellers, stock investors, policy makers, applied researchers, and many others who are involved in the capital market. In this paper, a comparative study has been conducted to predict stock index values using soft computing models and time series model. Paying attention to the applied econometric noises because our considered series are time series, we predict Chittagong stock indices for the period from January 1, 2005 to May 5, 2011. We have used well-known models such as, the genetic algorithm (GA model and the adaptive network fuzzy integrated system (ANFIS model as soft computing forecasting models. Very widely used forecasting models in applied time series econometrics, namely, the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroscedastic (GARCH model is considered as time series model. Our findings have revealed that the use of soft computing models is more successful than the considered time series model.

  12. Density contrast indicators in cosmological dust models

    Filipe C Mena; Reza Tavakol

    2000-10-01

    We discuss ways of quantifying structuration in relativistic cosmological settings, by employing a family of covariant density constrast indicators. We study the evolution of these indicators with time in the context of inhomogeneous Szekeres models. We find that different observers (having either different spatial locations or different indicators) see different evolutions for the density contrast, which may or may not be monotonically increasing with time. We also find that monotonicity seems to be related to the initial conditions of the model, which may be of potential interest in connection with debates regarding gravitational entropy and the arrow of time.

  13. The braking indices in pulsar emission models

    Wu, F; Gil, J; Gil, Janusz

    2003-01-01

    Using the method proposed in a previous paper, we calculate pulsar braking indices in the models with torque contributions from both inner and outer accelerating regions, assuming that the interaction between them is negligible. We suggest that it is likely that the inverse Compton scattering induced polar vacuum gap and the outer gap coexist in the pulsar magnetosphere. We include the new near threshold vacuum gap models with curvature-radiation and inverse Compton scattering induced cascades, respectively; and find that these models can well reproduce the measured values of the braking indices.

  14. Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes Measurement Error Models

    Tekwe, Carmen D.; Carter, Randy L.; Cullings, Harry M.; Carroll, Raymond J.

    2014-01-01

    Multiple Indicators, Multiple Causes Models (MIMIC) are often employed by researchers studying the effects of an unobservable latent variable on a set of outcomes, when causes of the latent variable are observed. There are times however when the causes of the latent variable are not observed because measurements of the causal variable are contaminated by measurement error. The objectives of this paper are: (1) to develop a novel model by extending the classical linear MIMIC model to allow bot...

  15. Gold resource modeling using pod indicator kriging

    Bargawa, Waterman Sulistyana; Rauf, Abdul; Amri, Nur Ali

    2016-02-01

    This paper describes an implementation of the pod indicator kriging method used to gold resource modeling. Method such as ordinary kriging estimate the mean grade of a block that is fairly large. The usual outcome is that large blocks rarely turn out to be all ore or all waste, thus making reserve estimates an incorrect estimate of what will be mined. Pod indicator kriging offers a solution to this problem by estimating the distribution of grade values within a large block, rather than just estimating the mean grade of the block. Knowing the distribution of grade value within the block, it is then easy to calculate the proportion of the block that is above cutoff grade and the grade of the ore above cutoff grade. This research shows that the pod indicator kriging model is quite applicable and reliable in gold resourcemodeling.

  16. Optical indicators of plant physiolgical activity

    Kováč, Daniel; Ač, Alexander; Šigut, Ladislav; Klem, Karel; Urban, Otmar

    2012-01-01

    Roč. 60, č. 3 (2012), s. 101-110. ISSN 1211-8516 R&D Projects: GA MŠk(CZ) ED1.1.00/02.0073; GA MŽP(CZ) SP/2D1/70/08 Institutional support: RVO:67179843 Keywords : Picea abies * refl ectance * vegetation indices * photosynthesis * ecophysiology Subject RIV: EH - Ecology, Behaviour

  17. Power law models of stock indices

    Tse, Man Kit

    Viewing the stock market as a self-organized system, Sornette and Johansen introduced physics-based models to study the dynamics of stock market crashes from the perspective of complex systems. This involved modeling stock market Indices using a mathematical power law exhibiting log-periodicity as the system approaches a market crash, which acts like a critical point in a thermodynamic system. In this dissertation, I aim to investigate stock indices to determine whether or not they exhibit log-periodic oscillations, according to the models proposed by Sornette, as they approach a crash. In addition to analyzing stock market crashes in the frequency domain using the discrete Fourier transform and the Lomb-Scargle periodogram, I perform a detailed analysis of the stock market crash models through parameter estimation and model testing. I find that the probability landscapes have a complex topography and that there is very little evidence that these phase transition-based models accurately describe stock market crashes.

  18. Environmental policy indicators: A systems model

    Cummings, Leslie Edwards; Cayer, N. Joseph

    1993-09-01

    This article describes and tests a systems theory-based policy indicators model. The framework is used to examine propositions about linkages between states' ecological-spatial characteristics and subsequent selected solid waste management (SWM) -related environmental policies. It was hypothesized that state characteristics of: (1) population density (used as a garbage-per-land area index), (2) population convergence within urban areas, and (3) percent population change in the interval 1980 1985, could jointly explain state variation in both the number and the vigor of SWM policy outputs. Greater levels of spatial pressure were proposed to be related directly to more numerous, more convincing policies. Proposals are grounded in the literature of organizational search theory, crisis stimulation, and technological pressure. Results revealed that the sociospatial model in fact could explain a reasonable proportion of policy variation across states. However, not all hypotheses are supported. Population change shows an indirect, rather than the anticipated direct, relationship with policy output levels. In addition, when used in the model as a pollution intensity index, population density failed to contribute significantly to an explanation of differences in state SWM policy levels. The analysis raises questions about changes occurring over time in the nature and direction of linkages between sociospatial measures and policy responses. This study suggests that strengthening policy indicator models may require questioning key assumptions and theoretical bases, conducting longitudinal studies, and factoring in political, economic, and other policy environment forces.

  19. Activity in the fronto-parietal network indicates numerical inductive reasoning beyond calculation: An fMRI study combined with a cognitive model

    Liang, Peipeng; Jia, Xiuqin; Taatgen, Niels A.; Borst, Jelmer P.; Li, Kuncheng

    2016-01-01

    Numerical inductive reasoning refers to the process of identifying and extrapolating the rule involved in numeric materials. It is associated with calculation, and shares the common activation of the fronto-parietal regions with calculation, which suggests that numerical inductive reasoning may correspond to a general calculation process. However, compared with calculation, rule identification is critical and unique to reasoning. Previous studies have established the central role of the fronto-parietal network for relational integration during rule identification in numerical inductive reasoning. The current question of interest is whether numerical inductive reasoning exclusively corresponds to calculation or operates beyond calculation, and whether it is possible to distinguish between them based on the activity pattern in the fronto-parietal network. To directly address this issue, three types of problems were created: numerical inductive reasoning, calculation, and perceptual judgment. Our results showed that the fronto-parietal network was more active in numerical inductive reasoning which requires more exchanges between intermediate representations and long-term declarative knowledge during rule identification. These results survived even after controlling for the covariates of response time and error rate. A computational cognitive model was developed using the cognitive architecture ACT-R to account for the behavioral results and brain activity in the fronto-parietal network. PMID:27193284

  20. Activity in the fronto-parietal network indicates numerical inductive reasoning beyond calculation: An fMRI study combined with a cognitive model.

    Liang, Peipeng; Jia, Xiuqin; Taatgen, Niels A; Borst, Jelmer P; Li, Kuncheng

    2016-01-01

    Numerical inductive reasoning refers to the process of identifying and extrapolating the rule involved in numeric materials. It is associated with calculation, and shares the common activation of the fronto-parietal regions with calculation, which suggests that numerical inductive reasoning may correspond to a general calculation process. However, compared with calculation, rule identification is critical and unique to reasoning. Previous studies have established the central role of the fronto-parietal network for relational integration during rule identification in numerical inductive reasoning. The current question of interest is whether numerical inductive reasoning exclusively corresponds to calculation or operates beyond calculation, and whether it is possible to distinguish between them based on the activity pattern in the fronto-parietal network. To directly address this issue, three types of problems were created: numerical inductive reasoning, calculation, and perceptual judgment. Our results showed that the fronto-parietal network was more active in numerical inductive reasoning which requires more exchanges between intermediate representations and long-term declarative knowledge during rule identification. These results survived even after controlling for the covariates of response time and error rate. A computational cognitive model was developed using the cognitive architecture ACT-R to account for the behavioral results and brain activity in the fronto-parietal network. PMID:27193284

  1. GLDAS Land Surface Models based Aridity Indices

    Pande, S.; Ghazanfari, S.

    2011-12-01

    Identification of dryland areas is crucial to guide policy aimed at intervening in water stressed areas and addressing its perennial livelihood or food insecurity. Aridity indices based on spatially relative soil moisture conditions such as NCEP aridity index allow cross comparison of dry conditions between sites. NCEP aridity index is based on the ratio of annual precipitation (supply) to annual potential evaporation (demand). Such an index ignores subannual scale competition between evaporation and drainage functions well as rainfall and temperature regimes. This determines partitioning of annual supply of precipitation into two competing (but met) evaporation and runoff demands. We here introduce aridity indices based on these additional considerations by using soil moisture time series for the past 3 decades from three Land Surface Models (LSM) models and compare it with NCEP index. We analyze global monthly soil moisture time series (385 months) at 1 x 1 degree spatial resolution as modeled by three GLDAS LSMs - VIC, MOSAIC and NOAH. The first eigen vector from Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis, as it is the most dominant spatial template of global soil moisture conditions, is extracted. Frequency of nonexceedences of this dominant soil moisture mode for a location by other locations is calculated and is used as our proposed aridity index. An area is indexed drier (relative to other areas in the world) if its frequency of nonexceedence is lower. The EOF analysis reveals that their first eigen vector explains approximately 32%, 43% and 47% of variance explained by first 385 eigen vectors for VIC, MOSAIC and NOAH respectively. The temporal coefficients associated with it for all three LSMS show seasonality with a jump in trend around the year 1999 for NOAH and MOSAIC. The VIC aridity index displays a pattern most closely resembling that of NCEP though all LSM based indices isolate dominant dryland areas. However, all three LSMs identify some parts of

  2. Design of a leading indicator for Costa Rican economic activity

    Carlos Chaverri Morales; Diana Van Patten Rivera

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents the results of estimating three leading indicators for the turning points of the economic activity in Costa Rica. This was done following the methodology proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE in Spanish) was selected as the reference variable.  A total of 270 data series were analyzed including monetary, real and job market variables, as well as price indices, external sector indicators and f...

  3. Activity in the fronto-parietal network indicates numerical inductive reasoning beyond calculation : An fMRI study combined with a cognitive model

    Liang, Peipeng; Jia, Xiuqin; Taatgen, Niels A; Borst, Jelmer P; Li, Kuncheng

    2016-01-01

    Numerical inductive reasoning refers to the process of identifying and extrapolating the rule involved in numeric materials. It is associated with calculation, and shares the common activation of the fronto-parietal regions with calculation, which suggests that numerical inductive reasoning may corr

  4. New RMS-based planetary geomagnetic activity indices

    Complete text of publication follows. Planetary geomagnetic indices aa, am, and Kp are based upon K indices measured at sub-auroral geomagnetic observatories. K indices are directly related to the range during 3-hour intervals of the irregular variations in the horizontal components of the magnetic field. Various geophysical problems such as e.g., the precise monitoring of the main magnetic field from satellite magnetic data need information on the longitude modulation of the geomagnetic activity. Others such as, e.g., the monitoring of the thermosphere/ionosphere response to geomagnetic storms need information with a time resolution smaller than 3 hours. Therefore, the International Service of Geomagnetic Indices, now hosted by LATMOS, has developed new geomagnetic activity indices: - The longitude sector geomagnetic activity indices based upon K indices from subauroral latitude observatories are well suited to provide the magnetic activity variation with longitude during a given UT time interval. - The rms planetary indices are based on another proxy of the magnetic energy, namely the root mean square (rms) of the irregular variations in the magnetic horizontal components. Using such proxy does not put constraints on the length of the time interval over which the indices are derived. Local rms indices can be computed at each observatory, and rms planetary indices derived following algorithms similar to those used for am, or aa planetary geomagnetic indices derivation. Such indices are computed over time intervals significantly shorter than 3 hours (typically few tens of minutes). The contribution of longitude sector indices and planetary rms indices will be illustrated by means of examples taken from studies of the thermosphere response to geomagnetic activity forcing.

  5. Performance indicators at Embalse NPP: PSA and safety system indicators based on PSA models

    Several indicators have been implemented at Embalse NPP. The objective was selecting some representative parameters to evaluate the performance of both the plant and the personnel activities, important for safety. A first set of indicators was defined in accordance with plant technical staff criteria. A complementary set of them was addressed later based on WANO guidance. This report presents the set of indicators used at Embalse NPP, centering the description to related to safety systems performance indicators (SSPI). Some considerations are done about the calculation methods, the need for aligning and updating their values following Embalse Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA) development, and some pros and cons of using the PSA model for getting systems indicators. Owing to the fact that PSA ownership by utilities is also a subject of the meeting, some characteristics of the organization of the PSA Project are described at the beginning of the report. At Embalse NPP a Level 1 PSA has been developed under the responsibility of its own plant and with an important contribution from the IAEA. PSA was developed at the site, conducting this to a study strongly interactive with the station staff. (author)

  6. Modelling Dynamics of Main Economic Indicators of an Enterprise

    Sherstennykov Yurii V.

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available The article develops an economic and mathematical model of dynamics of main economic indicators of an enterprise, reflected in six book-keeping accounts with consideration of logistics and interrelation with current market characteristics and needs of products consumers. It applies this model for a quantitative study of influence of an advertising campaign and seasonality upon quantitative indicators of economic activity of the enterprise. The enterprise operation programme includes internal financial and economic procedures, which ensure the production process, and also connection with suppliers and buyers (customers. When setting different initial conditions, it is possible to trace transitional processes and enterprise entering (under favourable conditions the stationary mode of operation or its laying-off (in case of insufficiency of circulating funds. The developed model contains many parameters, which allow not only study of dependence of enterprise operation on alteration of one of them but also optimisation of economic conditions of functioning.

  7. UV-Activated Luminescence/Colourimetric O2 Indicator

    Andrew Mills

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available An oxygen indicator is described, comprising nanoparticles of titania dispersed in hydroxyethyl cellulose (HEC polymer film containing a sacrificial electron donor, glycerol, and the redox indicator, indigo-tetrasulfonate (ITS. The indicator is blue- coloured in the absence of UV light, however upon exposure to UV light it not only loses its colour but also luminesces, unless and until it is exposed to oxygen, whereupon its original colour is restored. The initial photobleaching spectral (absorbance and luminescence response characteristics in air and in vacuum are described and discussed in terms of a simple reaction scheme involving UV activation of the titania photocatalyst particles, which are used to reduce the redox dye, ITS, to its leuco form, whilst simultaneously oxidising the glycerol to glyceraldehye. The response characteristics of the activated, that is, UV photobleached, form of the indicator to oxygen are also reported and the possible uses of such an indicator to measure ambient O2 levels are discussed.

  8. Geomorphic Indices in the Assessment of Tectonic Activity in Forearc of the Active Mexican Subduction Zone

    Gaidzik, K.; Ramirez-Herrera, M. T.

    2015-12-01

    Rapid development of GIS techniques and constant advancement of digital elevation models significantly improved the accuracy of extraction of information on active tectonics from landscape features. Numerous attempts were made to quantitatively evaluate recent tectonic activity using GIS and DEMs, and a set of geomorphic indices (GI), however these studies focused mainly on sub-basins or small-scale areal units. In forearc regions where crustal deformation is usually large-scale and do not concentrate only along one specific fault, an assessment of the complete basin is more accurate. We present here the first attempt to implement thirteen GI in the assessment of active tectonics of a forearc region of an active convergent margin using the entire river basins. The GIs were divided into groups: BTAI - basin geomorphic indices (reflecting areal erosion vs. tectonics) and STAI - stream geomorphic indices (reflecting vertical erosion vs. tectonics). We calculated selected indices for 9 large (> 450 km2) drainage basins. Then we categorized the obtained results of each index into three classes of relative tectonic activity: 1 - high, 2 - moderate, and 3 - low. Finally we averaged these classes for each basin to determine the tectonic activity level (TAI). The analysis for the case study area, the Guerrero sector at the Mexican subduction zone, revealed high tectonic activity in this area, particularly in its central and, to a lesser degree, eastern part. This pattern agrees with and is supported by interpretation of satellite images and DEM, and field observations. The results proved that the proposed approach indeed allows identification and recognition of areas witnessing recent tectonic deformation. Moreover, our results indicated that, even though no large earthquake has been recorded in this sector for more than 100 years, the area is highly active and may represent a seismic hazard for the region.

  9. Design of a leading indicator for Costa Rican economic activity

    Carlos Chaverri Morales

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the results of estimating three leading indicators for the turning points of the economic activity in Costa Rica. This was done following the methodology proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD. The Monthly Economic Activity Index (IMAE in Spanish was selected as the reference variable.  A total of 270 data series were analyzed including monetary, real and job market variables, as well as price indices, external sector indicators and fiscal sector variables. The real sector information was disaggregated into three levels, which included the classification of data at an industrial level using the International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC with two digits, information from the agricultural sector based on the Central Product Classification (CPC and information from the manufacturing sector.  A leading indicator was developed for each level of aggregation, resulting in average leads of 7 to 12 months compared to the reference variable.

  10. Constructing Global Production Activity Indices: The Chemical Industry

    Saswati Mahapatra; Thomas K Swift

    2012-01-01

    This article first presents the challenges involved in constructing consistent, timely, and reliable short-term measures of national, regional, and global industry activity. The chemical industry is used as a case study. Second, this article presents the comparison of the movement or fluctuations in industrial production indices and chemical production indices that aid in determining if production in the chemical industry can be used as a proxy for total production in an economy. The American...

  11. Extracellular Enzyme Activity assay as indicator of soil microbial functional diversity and activity

    Hendriksen, Niels Bohse; Winding, Anne

    2012-01-01

    Extracellular Enzyme Activity assay as indicator of soil microbial functional diversity and activity Niels Bohse Hendriksen, Anne Winding. Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark Soil enzymes originate from a variety of organisms, notably fungi and bacteria...... and especially hydrolytic extracellular enzymes are of pivotal importance for decomposition of organic substrates and biogeochemical cycling. Their activity reflects the functional diversity and activity of the microorganisms involved in decomposition processes which are essential processes for soil...... functioning and soil ecosystem services. The soil enzyme activity has been measured by the use of fluorogenic model substrates e.g. methylumbelliferyl (MUF) substrates for a number of enzymes involved in the degradation of polysaccharides as cellulose, hemicellulose and chitin, while degradation of proteins...

  12. Enzyme activities by indicator of quality in organic soil

    Raigon Jiménez, Mo; Fita, Ana Delores; Rodriguez Burruezo, Adrián

    2016-04-01

    The analytical determination of biochemical parameters, as soil enzyme activities and those related to the microbial biomass is growing importance by biological indicator in soil science studies. The metabolic activity in soil is responsible of important processes such as mineralization and humification of organic matter. These biological reactions will affect other key processes involved with elements like carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus , and all transformations related in soil microbial biomass. The determination of biochemical parameters is useful in studies carried out on organic soil where microbial processes that are key to their conservation can be analyzed through parameters of the metabolic activity of these soils. The main objective of this work is to apply analytical methodologies of enzyme activities in soil collections of different physicochemical characteristics. There have been selective sampling of natural soils, organic farming soils, conventional farming soils and urban soils. The soils have been properly identified conserved at 4 ° C until analysis. The enzyme activities determinations have been: catalase, urease, cellulase, dehydrogenase and alkaline phosphatase, which bring together a representative group of biological transformations that occur in the soil environment. The results indicate that for natural and agronomic soil collections, the values of the enzymatic activities are within the ranges established for forestry and agricultural soils. Organic soils are generally higher level of enzymatic, regardless activity of the enzyme involved. Soil near an urban area, levels of activities have been significantly reduced. The vegetation cover applied to organic soils, results in greater enzymatic activity. So the quality of these soils, defined as the ability to maintain their biological productivity is increased with the use of cover crops, whether or spontaneous species. The practice of cover based on legumes could be used as an ideal choice

  13. ABOUT THE KEY PERFORMANCE INDICATORS OF SCIENTIFIC ACTIVITIES

    Orlov A. I.

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Of the many urgent problems of Science about Science, we consider methods for estimation of the effectiveness and quality of the scientific activities of the researcher, of the organization, of the magazine. Performance indicators of scientific activity are used as an important part in the estimation of higher education institutions, the innovative capacity of enterprises, etc. To estimate the effectiveness of scientific activity is natural to use intellectual tools which are well-established in other subject areas. This will include, in particular, the balanced scorecard, based on key performance indicators (hence the title of this article, as well as controlling, primarily controlling of research activities. There are two more developed and widely used tools for estimation the effectiveness of the scientific activity - the scientometric indicators and the expert estimators. Their critical analysis is the subject of this article. Different versions of manipulating of values of scientometric indicators in the Russian Federation, in our estimation, are still relatively rare. Perhaps this is due to the relatively short period of their use in the management of science. Since an indicator such as citation index (the number of citations of publications of researcher, allows estimating its contribution to science, the use of this scientometric indicator for the management of science is justified. At the same time, the number of publications and especially h-index is not possible to objectively estimate the effectiveness of research activities, particularly in view of the properties of the real bibliometric databases. Expert procedures have several disadvantages. In this article we discuss the real effectiveness of expert procedures in the areas of their application, as conferring academic degrees and elections to the National Academy of Sciences (primarily in the Russian Academy of Sciences. The basic principles of expertise in these areas remain the

  14. A new serum indicator of activity of interstitial pneumonitis

    Serum levels of a high molecular weight circulating antigen KL-6, which is detected by sandwich assay using a monoclonal antibody KL-6 against a sialylated carbohydrate antigen, were examined for usefulness in monitoring the activity of interstitial pneumonitis. Of the 59 interstitial pneumonitis patients, 34 (58%) exhibited abnormally high levels of KL-6 antigen in their sera and no significant correlation between serum KL-6 values and lactic dehydrogenase activities was noted. Moreover, KL-6 antigen levels showed a positive correlation with the degree of clinical activity of the disease as measured by 67Ga-citrate scintigram and clinical outcome over time. These data suggest that serum KL-6 antigen may be a new useful indicator for estimating the degree of activity of interstitial pneumonitis, although it cannot be used for differential diagnosis of this disease from other malignant and nonmalignant diseases showing abnormally high levels of KL-6 antigen. (author)

  15. Active Player Modelling

    Togelius, Julian; Shaker, Noor; Yannakakis, Georgios N.

    2013-01-01

    We argue for the use of active learning methods for player modelling. In active learning, the learning algorithm chooses where to sample the search space so as to optimise learning progress. We hypothesise that player modelling based on active learning could result in vastly more efficient learning, but will require big changes in how data is collected. Some example active player modelling scenarios are described. A particular form of active learning is also equivalent to an influential forma...

  16. Constraint on 't Hooft indices in preon models with complementarity

    We reexamine the SU(7) preon model of Dimopoulos, Raby, and Susskind that is the only model known to violate the conjecture that the 't Hooft indices for composite models satisfying complementarity are bounded in magnitude by 1. We show that the SU(7) model is in accord with this conjecture due to the hidden ''family symmetry'' SU(2)

  17. Sensitivity of Fit Indices to Misspecification in Growth Curve Models

    Wu, Wei; West, Stephen G.

    2010-01-01

    This study investigated the sensitivity of fit indices to model misspecification in within-individual covariance structure, between-individual covariance structure, and marginal mean structure in growth curve models. Five commonly used fit indices were examined, including the likelihood ratio test statistic, root mean square error of…

  18. Active fiber optic technologies used as tamper-indicating devices

    The Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Safeguards and Seals Evaluation Program is evaluating new fiber optic active seal technologies for use at Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. The goal of the program is to investigate active seal technologies that can monitor secured containers storing special nuclear materials (SNM) within DOE vaults. Specifically investigated were active seal technologies that can be used as tamper-indicating devices to monitor secured containers within vaults while personnel remain outside the vault area. Such a system would allow minimal access into vaults while ensuring container content accountability. The purpose of this report is to discuss tamper-indicating devices that were evaluated for possible DOE use. While previous seal evaluations (Phase I and II) considered overall facility applications, this discussion focuses specifically on their use in vault storage situations. The report will highlight general background information, specifications and requirements, and test procedures. Also discussed are the systems available from four manufacturers: Interactive Technologies, Inc., Fiber SenSys, Inc., Inovonics, Inc., and Valve Security Systems

  19. Active fiber optic technologies used as tamper-indicating devices

    Horton, P.R.V.; Waddoups, I.G.

    1995-11-01

    The Sandia National Laboratories (SNL) Safeguards and Seals Evaluation Program is evaluating new fiber optic active seal technologies for use at Department of Energy (DOE) facilities. The goal of the program is to investigate active seal technologies that can monitor secured containers storing special nuclear materials (SNM) within DOE vaults. Specifically investigated were active seal technologies that can be used as tamper-indicating devices to monitor secured containers within vaults while personnel remain outside the vault area. Such a system would allow minimal access into vaults while ensuring container content accountability. The purpose of this report is to discuss tamper-indicating devices that were evaluated for possible DOE use. While previous seal evaluations (Phase I and II) considered overall facility applications, this discussion focuses specifically on their use in vault storage situations. The report will highlight general background information, specifications and requirements, and test procedures. Also discussed are the systems available from four manufacturers: Interactive Technologies, Inc., Fiber SenSys, Inc., Inovonics, Inc., and Valve Security Systems.

  20. Heuristic model selection for leading indicators in Russia and Germany

    Savin, Ivan; Winker, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Business tendency survey indicators are widely recognized as a key instrument for business cycle forecasting. Their leading indicator property is assessed with regard to forecasting industrial production in Russia and Germany. For this purpose, vector autoregressive (VAR) models are specified and estimated to construct forecasts. As the potential number of lags included is large, we compare full–specified VAR models with subset models obtained using a Genetic Algorithm enabling ’holes’ in mul...

  1. ELECTRONIC TRANSACTIONS AS HIGH-FREQUENCY INDICATORS OF ECONOMICS ACTIVITY

    John Galbraith; Greg Tkacz

    2008-01-01

    Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomics modelling and forecasting. However, technological advances of the past several years have resulted in new high-frequency data sources that could potentially provide more accurate and timely information on the current level of economic activity. In this paper we explore the usefulness of electronic transactions as...

  2. Electronic transactions as high-frequency indicators of economic activity

    Galbraith, John W.; Tkacz, Greg

    2007-01-01

    Since the advent of standard national accounts data over 60 years ago, economists have traditionally relied on monthly or quarterly data supplied by central statistical agencies for macroeconomic modelling and forecasting. However, technological advances of the past several years have resulted in new high-frequency data sources that could potentially provide more accurate and timely information on the current level of economic activity. In this paper we explore the usefulness of electronic tr...

  3. Sensitive red protein calcium indicators for imaging neural activity.

    Dana, Hod; Mohar, Boaz; Sun, Yi; Narayan, Sujatha; Gordus, Andrew; Hasseman, Jeremy P; Tsegaye, Getahun; Holt, Graham T; Hu, Amy; Walpita, Deepika; Patel, Ronak; Macklin, John J; Bargmann, Cornelia I; Ahrens, Misha B; Schreiter, Eric R; Jayaraman, Vivek; Looger, Loren L; Svoboda, Karel; Kim, Douglas S

    2016-01-01

    Genetically encoded calcium indicators (GECIs) allow measurement of activity in large populations of neurons and in small neuronal compartments, over times of milliseconds to months. Although GFP-based GECIs are widely used for in vivo neurophysiology, GECIs with red-shifted excitation and emission spectra have advantages for in vivo imaging because of reduced scattering and absorption in tissue, and a consequent reduction in phototoxicity. However, current red GECIs are inferior to the state-of-the-art GFP-based GCaMP6 indicators for detecting and quantifying neural activity. Here we present improved red GECIs based on mRuby (jRCaMP1a, b) and mApple (jRGECO1a), with sensitivity comparable to GCaMP6. We characterized the performance of the new red GECIs in cultured neurons and in mouse, Drosophila, zebrafish and C. elegans in vivo. Red GECIs facilitate deep-tissue imaging, dual-color imaging together with GFP-based reporters, and the use of optogenetics in combination with calcium imaging. PMID:27011354

  4. Nitrate pollution risk assessment : from the model to the indicator

    Lacroix, Anne; Laurent, François; Ruelland, Denis; Sauboua, Emmanuelle

    2006-01-01

    The diffuse nature of nitrate pollution makes it difficult to evaluate existing or planned measures to reduce it. Tools are therefore been developed to assess this pollution, ranging from simple indicators to complex models. The aim of this paper is to compare indicators and models by analysing results obtained from their individual application to the same area. The pros and cons of each approach are evaluated in terms of both the conditions of their implementation and the results obtained. T...

  5. Variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs

    Computational models are intensively used in engineering for risk analysis or prediction of future outcomes. Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in these purposes. Although several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs only a few are proposed in the literature in the case of dependent inputs. This is explained by the fact that the theoretical framework for the independent case is set and a univocal set of variance-based sensitivity indices is defined. In the present work, we propose a set of variance-based sensitivity indices to perform sensitivity analysis of models with dependent inputs. These measures allow us to distinguish between the mutual dependent contribution and the independent contribution of an input to the model response variance. Their definition relies on a specific orthogonalisation of the inputs and ANOVA-representations of the model output. In the applications, we show the interest of the new sensitivity indices for model simplification setting. - Highlights: ► Uncertainty and sensitivity analyses are of great help in engineering. ► Several methods exist to perform variance-based sensitivity analysis of model output with independent inputs. ► We define a set of variance-based sensitivity indices for models with dependent inputs. ► Inputs mutual contributions are distinguished from their independent contributions. ► Analytical and computational tests are performed and discussed.

  6. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  7. Biochemical and hematological indicators in model of total body irradiation

    With the purpose of evaluating the applicability of several biological indicators in accidental overexposures a study was carried out in 20 patients undergoing therapeutical total body irradiation (TBI). The following parameters were evaluated: a) Oxidative stress indicators: erythrocyte superoxide dismutase (SOD) and catalase activity (CAT), lipo peroxyde levels (TBARS) and total plasma antioxidant activity (TAA). b) Haematological indicators: reticulocyte maturity index (RMI) and charges in lymphocyte subpopulations. Non significant changes in SOD and CAT activity were observed. Significant higher TBARS levels were found in patients with unfavorable post-BTM course without any significant correlation with TAA. RMI decreased early and dropped to zero in most of the patients and rose several days prior to reticulocyte, neutrophils and platelets counts. A significant decrease in absolute counts of all lymphocyte subpopulations was observed during TBI, particularly for B lymphocytes. A subpopulation of natural killer (NK) cells (CD16+/ CD 56 +) showed a relative higher radioresistance. Cytotoxic activity was significantly decreased after TBI. These data suggest that TBARS could provide an useful evolutive indicator in accidental over exposure d patients and RMI is an early indicator of bone marrow recovery after radioinduced aplasia. The implications of the different radiosensitivities within the NK subsets remains unanswered. (author)

  8. Model-based evaluation of scientific impact indicators

    Medo, Matus

    2016-01-01

    Using bibliometric data artificially generated through a model of citation dynamics calibrated on empirical data, we compare several indicators for the scientific impact of individual researchers. The use of such a controlled setup has the advantage of avoiding the biases present in real databases, and allows us to assess which aspects of the model dynamics and which traits of individual researchers a particular indicator actually reflects. We find that the simple citation average performs well in capturing the intrinsic scientific ability of researchers, whatever the length of their career. On the other hand, when productivity complements ability in the evaluation process, the notorious $h$ and $g$ indices reveal their potential, yet their normalized variants do not always yield a fair comparison between researchers at different career stages. Notably, the use of logarithmic units for citation counts allows us to build simple indicators with performance equal to that of $h$ and $g$. Our analysis may provide ...

  9. RECEIVED SIGNAL STRENGTH INDICATION MODELING IN INDOOR WIRELESS SENSOR NETWORKS

    Edson Taira Procopio

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to identify mathematical models that represent the relation between Received Signal Strength Indication (RSSI and objects in an indoor Wireless Sensor Network (WSN. Using the Least Squares Method, four linear models have been identified: The first one relates uplink RSSI and objects; the second one relates downlink RSSI and objects; the third one relates uplink RSSI and obstacles and the fourth one relates downlink RSSI and obstacles. The obtained results, characterized by small residual values, attest the validation of all four models.

  10. Environmental indicators and international models for making decision

    The last international features proposed by the Organization for Economic Cooperation Development (OECD) and United Nations (UN) are analyzed in the use of the environmental indicators, in typology, selection criteria, and models, for organizing the information for management, environmental performance, and decision making. The advantages and disadvantages of each model are analyzed, as well as their environmental index characteristics. The analyzed models are Pressure - State - Response (PSR) and its conceptual developments: Driving Force - State Response (DSR), Driving Force - Pressure - State - Impact - Response (DPSIR), Model- Flow-Quality (MFQ), Pressure - State - Impact - Effect - Response (PSIER), and, finally, Pressure-State - Impact - Effect - Response - Management (PSIERM). The use of one or another model will depend on the quality of the available information, as well as on the proposed objectives

  11. Activated leukocyte cell adhesion molecule in breast cancer: prognostic indicator

    Activated leukocyte cell adhesion molecule (ALCAM) (CD166) is an immunoglobulin molecule that has been implicated in cell migration. The present study examined the expression of ALCAM in human breast cancer and assessed its prognostic value. The immunohistochemical distribution and location of ALCAM was assessed in normal breast tissue and carcinoma. The levels of ALCAM transcripts in frozen tissue (normal breast, n = 32; breast cancer, n = 120) were determined using real-time quantitative PCR. The results were then analyzed in relation to clinical data including the tumor type, the grade, the nodal involvement, distant metastases, the tumor, node, metastasis (TNM) stage, the Nottingham Prognostic Index (NPI), and survival over a 6-year follow-up period. Immunohistochemical staining on tissue sections in ducts/acini in normal breast and in breast carcinoma was ALCAM-positive. Differences in the number of ALCAM transcripts were found in different types of breast cancer. The level of ALCAM transcripts was lower (P = 0.05) in tumors from patients who had metastases to regional lymph nodes compared with those patients without, in higher grade tumors compared with Grade 1 tumors (P < 0.01), and in TNM Stage 3 tumors compared with TNM Stage 1 tumors (P < 0.01). Tumors from patients with poor prognosis (with NPI > 5.4) had significantly lower levels (P = 0.014) of ALCAM transcripts compared with patients with good prognosis (with NPI < 3.4), and tumors from patients with local recurrence had significantly lower levels than those patients without local recurrence or metastases (P = 0.04). Notably, tumors from patients who died of breast cancer had significantly lower levels of ALCAM transcripts (P = 0.0041) than those with primary tumors but no metastatic disease or local recurrence. Patients with low levels of ALCAM transcripts had significantly (P = 0.009) more incidents (metastasis, recurrence, death) compared with patients with primary breast tumors with high levels of

  12. Characterization and modeling of urban environmental quality indicators

    Francisco de Assis Cruz Melo; Mariko Ueno

    2013-01-01

    Environmental problems in the urban area of Belém, Pará, Brazil, deny a large portion of the population critical environmental quality. The present study evaluated the environmental quality of the urban village of União, in a neighborhood called Terra Firme, Belém, Pará. An integrated urban environmental quality index was proposed, based on the modeling of indicators of urban environmental quality, urban livability and quality of treated water. These three indices encompass the variables of w...

  13. Characterization and modeling of urban environmental quality indicators

    Francisco de Assis Cruz Melo

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Environmental problems in the urban area of Belém, Pará, Brazil, deny a large portion of the population critical environmental quality. The present study evaluated the environmental quality of the urban village of União, in a neighborhood called Terra Firme, Belém, Pará. An integrated urban environmental quality index was proposed, based on the modeling of indicators of urban environmental quality, urban livability and quality of treated water. These three indices encompass the variables of water supply, garbage collection, vegetation, sewage, road paving, infrastructure condition of households, the existence of urban equipment for common use, public transport, accessibility, family income, employment conditions, education and quality of treated water. The results of the indicators are: urban environmental quality index, 50.0 points (indicating a regular level of environmental quality; urban livability index, 48.6 points (representing moderate level of livability; and quality index of the treated water, 98.1 points (which is an optimal level of water quality. The arithmetic average of the three indices generated an integrated urban environmental quality of 65.6 points, a good environmental quality level of the urban village housing in União. The interpretation of this integrated index reflects the indicators measured in each index. We conclude that the modeling of urban environmental quality indicators was an important tool for the analysis of urban environmental quality in micro or macro scales, and this allowed us to propose more efficient management and restructuring of the urban environment.

  14. Business cycles and leading indicators of industrial activity in India

    Mohanty, Jaya; Singh, Bhupal; Jain, Rajeev

    2003-01-01

    The identification of business cycles in India and construction of a composite leading indicator for forecasting the cyclical turning points have been the focus of this study. The cyclical analysis of monthly index of industrial production (IIP) in India applying the Bry-Boschan procedure indicates that there have been 13 growth cycles in the Indian economy with varying durations during 1970-71 to 2001-02. While the average duration of expansion has been 12 months, the recessions are characte...

  15. Convexity in stochastic programming model with indicators of ecological stability

    Houda, Michal

    Karviná: Silesian University in Opava, School of Business Administration in Karviná, 2012 - (Ramík, J.; Stavárek, D.), s. 314-319 ISBN 978-80-7248-779-0. [30th International Conference Mathematical Methods in Economics 2012. Karviná (CZ), 11.09.2012-13.09.2012] R&D Projects: GA ČR GAP402/10/0956 Institutional support: RVO:67985556 Keywords : stochastic programming * convexity * value-at-risk models Subject RIV: BB - Applied Statistics, Operational Research http://library.utia.cas.cz/separaty/2012/E/houda-convexity in stochastic programming model with indicators of ecological stability.pdf

  16. Active Epilepsy as Indicator of Neurocysticercosis in Rural Northwest India

    Gupta, V. P.; Shiveta Razdan; Rajesh Sharma; Pandita, K. K.; Sushil Razdan; Sunil Kumar Raina

    2012-01-01

    Objective. To determine the contribution of neurocysticercosis as a cause for active epilepsy and to establish Neurocysticercosis as major definable risk of epilepsy in our setup. Methods. We conducted a door-to-door survey of 2,209 individuals of Bhore Pind and Bhore Kullian villages in Chattah zone of district Jammu (Jumma and Kashmir, Northwest India) to identify patients with symptomatic epilepsy. Patients with active epilepsy were investigated with neuroimaging techniques to establish di...

  17. DRAFT MODEL FOR CREATING A FINANCIAL INDICATORS OF BRIDGE CONSTRUCTION

    Iveta Strelcova

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with a problem of developing, defining and applying budgetary indicators of engineering constructions, and particularly bridges. It is a draft of a Model for development of budgetary indicators of bridge construction in the pre-investment phase of a project. It could, according to classification and evaluation in terms of criteria and search for the most accurate valuation unit of complex structures such as bridge construction, serve investors and public administration authorities for rapid investment planning and professional control of completed buildings. Such a unique tool has never been developed in the Czech Republic so far. Bridges as buildings complement any landscape and in the outer parts of cities, they often establish a viewpoint. They belong among important parts of any highway or expressway. Without them, it would be impossible to establish grade-separated crossings with other roads - roads, railway lines or sections of rivers. They are also important in overcoming obstacles of natural and artificial character such as deep valleys, lakes, or steep mountainsides. The aim of the paper is to analyse a current state of the valuation of bridges and the subsequent establishment and validation of the Model for the development of budgetary indicators of the bridge construction.

  18. Indicators of free radical activity in patients developing radiation pneumonitis

    Purpose: Radiation pneumonitis is thought to occur as the result of excess free radical generation following radiotherapy. Various in vitro studies have shown that large doses of irradiation can cause membrane lipid peroxidation and the oxidation of protein sulphuryl groups. We, therefore, studied two circulating markers of lipid peroxidation and an indicator of 'catalytic iron' (potentially available iron to catalyze the generation of free radicals) in patients undergoing radiotherapy. Methods and Materials: The 9,11 diene conjugate of 9,12 linoleic acid, expressed as their molar ratio (percentage molar ratio (MR)) and thiobarbituric acid reactive acid-substances (TBARS), as well as levels of circulating desferrioxamine-chelatable iron assay, were assayed. Serial blood samples were taken over a 3-month period in 25 patients with inoperable nonsmall cell lung cancer. Results: Ten patients developed radiation pneumonitis. The patients who developed pneumonitis showed a tendency for the serum percentage molar ratio to increase after a week. The change in the percentage molar ratio between Time 0 and 1 week of radiotherapy was significantly higher in the group that subsequently developed pneumonitis compared to the group that did not (p = 0.002). The initial serum TBARS levels in patients were not significantly elevated compared to controls and there was no difference in the serum TBARS levels in the pneumonitis and nonpneumonitis groups throughout the study period. After 1 week of radiotherapy the group that subsequently developed pneumonitis had a significantly higher level of desferrioxamine-chelatable iron (DFx-iron) compared with the nonpneumonitis group (p = 0.05). Conclusion: These data suggest that both the percentage MR and DFx-iron appear to reflect an increased susceptibility to develop radiation pneumonitis and after 1 week of radiotherapy they indicate patients who are likely to subsequently develop pneumonitis. Hence, these indicators could indicate the

  19. Computational models of epileptiform activity.

    Wendling, Fabrice; Benquet, Pascal; Bartolomei, Fabrice; Jirsa, Viktor

    2016-02-15

    We reviewed computer models that have been developed to reproduce and explain epileptiform activity. Unlike other already-published reviews on computer models of epilepsy, the proposed overview starts from the various types of epileptiform activity encountered during both interictal and ictal periods. Computational models proposed so far in the context of partial and generalized epilepsies are classified according to the following taxonomy: neural mass, neural field, detailed network and formal mathematical models. Insights gained about interictal epileptic spikes and high-frequency oscillations, about fast oscillations at seizure onset, about seizure initiation and propagation, about spike-wave discharges and about status epilepticus are described. This review shows the richness and complementarity of the various modeling approaches as well as the fruitful contribution of the computational neuroscience community in the field of epilepsy research. It shows that models have progressively gained acceptance and are now considered as an efficient way of integrating structural, functional and pathophysiological data about neural systems into "coherent and interpretable views". The advantages, limitations and future of modeling approaches are discussed. Perspectives in epilepsy research and clinical epileptology indicate that very promising directions are foreseen, like model-guided experiments or model-guided therapeutic strategy, among others. PMID:25843066

  20. Generic Modelling of Faecal Indicator Organism Concentrations in the UK

    Carl M. Stapleton

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available To meet European Water Framework Directive requirements, data are needed on faecal indicator organism (FIO concentrations in rivers to enable the more heavily polluted to be targeted for remedial action. Due to the paucity of FIO data for the UK, especially under high-flow hydrograph event conditions, there is an urgent need by the policy community for generic models that can accurately predict FIO concentrations, thus informing integrated catchment management programmes. This paper reports the development of regression models to predict base- and high-flow faecal coliform (FC and enterococci (EN concentrations for 153 monitoring points across 14 UK catchments, using land cover, population (human and livestock density and other variables that may affect FIO source strength, transport and die-off. Statistically significant models were developed for both FC and EN, with greater explained variance achieved in the high-flow models. Both land cover and, in particular, population variables are significant predictors of FIO concentrations, with r2 maxima for EN of 0.571 and 0.624, respectively. It is argued that the resulting models can be applied, with confidence, to other UK catchments, both to predict FIO concentrations in unmonitored watercourses and evaluate the likely impact of different land use/stocking level and human population change scenarios.

  1. Active Epilepsy as Indicator of Neurocysticercosis in Rural Northwest India

    Sunil Kumar Raina

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To determine the contribution of neurocysticercosis as a cause for active epilepsy and to establish Neurocysticercosis as major definable risk of epilepsy in our setup. Methods. We conducted a door-to-door survey of 2,209 individuals of Bhore Pind and Bhore Kullian villages in Chattah zone of district Jammu (Jumma and Kashmir, Northwest India to identify patients with symptomatic epilepsy. Patients with active epilepsy were investigated with neuroimaging techniques to establish diagnosis of NCC (neurocysticercosis. Results. Among 25 patients with epilepsy 10(40% had CT/MR evidence of past or recent NCC infection. This gave us the point prevalence of 4.5/1000 for Neurocysticercosis in our study population. Interpretation. The study shows a high prevalence of NCC accounting for symptomatic epilepsy in our part of India.

  2. Bacteria bioluminescent activity as an indicator of geomagnetic disturbances

    The effect of geomagnetic disturbances and storms on bioluminescence activity of bacterium were investigated. The bioluminescence intensity change depended on amplitude and continuous of geomagnetic storms. It is assumed, that the synchronization of luminous radiation take place in cellos when frequency of geomagnetic disturbances approached to an intrinsic one of a bioluminescence system. High sensitivity of bioluminescence of geomagnetic storms was detected. 5 refs., 4 figs

  3. Structure model of energy efficiency indicators and applications

    For the purposes of energy conservation and environmental protection, the government of Taiwan has instigated long-term policies to continuously encourage and assist industry in improving the efficiency of energy utilization. While multiple actions have led to practical energy saving to a limited extent, no strong evidence of improvement in energy efficiency was observed from the energy efficiency indicators (EEI) system, according to the annual national energy statistics and survey. A structural analysis of EEI is needed in order to understand the role that energy efficiency plays in the EEI system. This work uses the Taylor series expansion to develop a structure model for EEI at the level of the process sector of industry. The model is developed on the premise that the design parameters of the process are used in comparison with the operational parameters for energy differences. The utilization index of production capability and the variation index of energy utilization are formulated in the model to describe the differences between EEIs. Both qualitative and quantitative methods for the analysis of energy efficiency and energy savings are derived from the model. Through structural analysis, the model showed that, while the performance of EEI is proportional to the process utilization index of production capability, it is possible that energy may develop in a direction opposite to that of EEI. This helps to explain, at least in part, the inconsistency between EEI and energy savings. An energy-intensive steel plant in Taiwan was selected to show the application of the model. The energy utilization efficiency of the plant was evaluated and the amount of energy that had been saved or over-used in the production process was estimated. Some insights gained from the model outcomes are helpful to further enhance energy efficiency in the plant

  4. The performance indicators of model projects. A special evaluation

    As a result of the acknowledgment of the key role of the Model Project concept in the Agency's Technical Co-operation Programme, the present review of the objectives of the model projects which are now in operation, was undertaken, as recommended by the Board of Governors, to determine at an early stage: the extent to which the present objectives have been defined in a measurable way; whether objectively verifiable performance indicators and success criteria had been identified for each project; whether mechanisms to obtain feedback on the achievements had been foreseen. The overall budget for the 23 model projects, as approved from 1994 to 1998, amounts to $32,557,560, of which 45% is funded by Technical Co-operation Fund. This represents an average investment of about $8 million per year, that is over 15% of the annual TC budget. The conceptual importance of the Model Project initiative, as well as the significant funds allocated to them, led the Secretariat to plan the methods to be used to determine their socio-economic impact. 1 tab

  5. Indicators technology competitive activities of varying skill karate style «kyokushin»

    Natalya Boychenko

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: to identify the main indicators of the art of competitive activity karate different qualifications style «kyokushin» and identify their differences. Material and Methods: analysis of video recordings of highly competitive activity karate; teacher observations; methods of mathematical statistics. Results: based on the analysis of video recordings of competitive activity created a model of technical preparedness karate qualifications. The differences in the technique of competitive activity karate different qualifications. Conclusions: it was found a series of karate techniques with different skills, their frequency of use and effectiveness. Confirmed that in the competitive fight karate qualifications dominated series techniques. It is found that the technique of competitive activity highly skilled athletes is very varied combinations strikes in series of two or three strikes and more.

  6. Modeling Fecal Indicator Bacteria Like Salt in Newport Bay

    Ciglar, A. M.; Rippy, M.; Grant, S. B.

    2015-12-01

    Newport Bay is a harbor and estuary located in Orange County, CA that provides many water sports and recreational activities for millions of southern California residents and tourists. The aim of this study is to quickly assess exceedances of FIB in the Newport Bay which pose a health risk to recreational users. The ability to quickly assess water quality is made possible with an advection-diffusion mass transport model that uses easily measurable parameters such as volumetric flow rate from tributaries. Current FIB assessment methods for Newport Bay take a minimum of 24 hours to evaluate health risk by either culturing for FIB or running a more complex fluid dynamics model. By this time the FIB may have already reached the ocean outlet thus no longer posing a risk in the bay or recreationists may have already come in close contact with contaminated waters. The advection-diffusion model can process and disseminate health risk information within a few hours of flow rate measurements, minimizing time between an FIB exceedance and public awareness about the event. Data used to calibrate and validate the model was collected from January 2006 through February 2007. Salinity data was used for calibration and FIB data was used for validation. Both steady-state and transient conditions were assessed to determine if dry weather patterns can be simplified to the steady-state condition.

  7. Extracellular enzyme activity assay as indicator of soil microbial functional diversity and activity

    Hendriksen, Niels Bohse; Winding, Anne

    2012-01-01

    Extracellular enzyme activity assay as indicator of soil microbial functional diversity and activity Niels Bohse Hendriksen, Anne Winding. Department of Environmental Science, Aarhus University, 4000 Roskilde, Denmark Soils provide numerous essential ecosystem services such as carbon cycling......, recycling of nutrients and waste, soil remediation, plant growth support and regulation of above ground biodiversity, resilience, and soil suppressiveness. As such, soil ecosystem services are beneficial and vital for human life and at the same time threatened by anthropogenic activities. Increasing...... of soil microbial functions is still needed. In soil, enzymes originate from a variety of organisms, notably fungi and bacteria and especially hydrolytic extracellular enzymes are of pivotal importance for decomposition of organic substrates and biogeochemical cycling. Their activity will reflect the...

  8. Innovative techniques to analyze time series of geomagnetic activity indices

    Balasis, Georgios; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Potirakis, Stelios M.; Eftaxias, Konstantinos

    2016-04-01

    Magnetic storms are undoubtedly among the most important phenomena in space physics and also a central subject of space weather. The non-extensive Tsallis entropy has been recently introduced, as an effective complexity measure for the analysis of the geomagnetic activity Dst index. The Tsallis entropy sensitively shows the complexity dissimilarity among different "physiological" (normal) and "pathological" states (intense magnetic storms). More precisely, the Tsallis entropy implies the emergence of two distinct patterns: (i) a pattern associated with the intense magnetic storms, which is characterized by a higher degree of organization, and (ii) a pattern associated with normal periods, which is characterized by a lower degree of organization. Other entropy measures such as Block Entropy, T-Complexity, Approximate Entropy, Sample Entropy and Fuzzy Entropy verify the above mentioned result. Importantly, the wavelet spectral analysis in terms of Hurst exponent, H, also shows the existence of two different patterns: (i) a pattern associated with the intense magnetic storms, which is characterized by a fractional Brownian persistent behavior (ii) a pattern associated with normal periods, which is characterized by a fractional Brownian anti-persistent behavior. Finally, we observe universality in the magnetic storm and earthquake dynamics, on a basis of a modified form of the Gutenberg-Richter law for the Tsallis statistics. This finding suggests a common approach to the interpretation of both phenomena in terms of the same driving physical mechanism. Signatures of discrete scale invariance in Dst time series further supports the aforementioned proposal.

  9. Using geochemical indicators to distinguish high biogeochemical activity in floodplain soils and sediments.

    Kenwell, Amy; Navarre-Sitchler, Alexis; Prugue, Rodrigo; Spear, John R; Hering, Amanda S; Maxwell, Reed M; Carroll, Rosemary W H; Williams, Kenneth H

    2016-09-01

    A better understanding of how microbial communities interact with their surroundings in physically and chemically heterogeneous subsurface environments will lead to improved quantification of biogeochemical reactions and associated nutrient cycling. This study develops a methodology to predict potential elevated rates of biogeochemical activity (microbial "hotspots") in subsurface environments by correlating microbial DNA and aspects of the community structure with the spatial distribution of geochemical indicators in subsurface sediments. Multiple linear regression models of simulated precipitation leachate, HCl and hydroxylamine extractable iron and manganese, total organic carbon (TOC), and microbial community structure were used to identify sample characteristics indicative of biogeochemical hotspots within fluvially-derived aquifer sediments and overlying soils. The method has been applied to (a) alluvial materials collected at a former uranium mill site near Rifle, Colorado and (b) relatively undisturbed floodplain deposits (soils and sediments) collected along the East River near Crested Butte, Colorado. At Rifle, 16 alluvial samples were taken from 8 sediment cores, and at the East River, 46 soil/sediment samples were collected across and perpendicular to 3 active meanders and an oxbow meander. Regression models using TOC and TOC combined with extractable iron and manganese results were determined to be the best fitting statistical models of microbial DNA (via 16S rRNA gene analysis). Fitting these models to observations in both contaminated and natural floodplain deposits, and their associated alluvial aquifers, demonstrates the broad applicability of the geochemical indicator based approach. PMID:27145490

  10. Ecotoxicity Effect Indicator for use in the OMNIITOX Base Model

    Larsen, Henrik Fred; Payet, Jerome; Molander, S;

    2004-01-01

    for the estimation of the EFI. However none of these methods are found to be adequately robust and/or able to work on the low data input defined by the OMNIITOX Base Model (BM), i.e. a minimum of three acute EC50 values. Given the fact that the BM should be applicable to a significant number of chemicals......, this requirement follows from the current and the most likely future data availability as defined by the proposed EU chemicals policy REACH. In this paper, a theoretical elaboration of effect-based average approaches (arithmetic mean, geometric mean and median) and the non-effect based approach (PNEC) is made...... focusing on their statistical robustness. Considerations about the possibility to relate the effect indicator to damage on the endpoint, the ecosystem, are also included. The effect-based approaches are tested for their robustness in estimating an HC50 in a practical test on datasets from eleven different...

  11. Environmental problems indicator under environmental modeling toward sustainable development

    P. Sutthichaimethee

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available This research aims to apply a model to the study and analysis of environmental and natural resource costs created in supply chains of goods and services produced in Thailand, and propose indicators for environmental problem management, caused by goods and services production, based on concepts of sustainable production and consumer behavior. The research showed that the highest environmental cost in terms of Natural Resource Materials was from pipelines and gas distribution, while the lowest was for farming coconuts. The highest environmental cost in terms of Energy and Transportation was for iron and steel. The highest environmental cost in the category of Fertilizer and Pesticides was for oil palm. For Sanitation Services, the highest environmental cost was movie theaters. Overall, the lowest environmental cost for all categories, except Natural Resource Materials, was for petroleum and refineries. Based on the cost index, coconut farming gained the highest Real Benefit to the farm owner, while pipelines and gas distribution had the lowest Real Benefit. If Thailand were to use a similar environmental problem indicator, it could be applied to formulate efficient policy and strategy for the country in three areas, namely social, economic, and environmental development.

  12. Fetal functional brain age assessed from universal developmental indices obtained from neuro-vegetative activity patterns.

    Dirk Hoyer

    Full Text Available Fetal brain development involves the development of the neuro-vegetative (autonomic control that is mediated by the autonomic nervous system (ANS. Disturbances of the fetal brain development have implications for diseases in later postnatal life. In that context, the fetal functional brain age can be altered. Universal principles of developmental biology applied to patterns of autonomic control may allow a functional age assessment. The work aims at the development of a fetal autonomic brain age score (fABAS based on heart rate patterns. We analysed n = 113 recordings in quiet sleep, n = 286 in active sleep, and n = 29 in active awakeness from normals. We estimated fABAS from magnetocardiographic recordings (21.4-40.3 weeks of gestation preclassified in quiet sleep (n = 113, 63 females and active sleep (n = 286, 145 females state by cross-validated multivariate linear regression models in a cross-sectional study. According to universal system developmental principles, we included indices that address increasing fluctuation range, increasing complexity, and pattern formation (skewness, power spectral ratio VLF/LF, pNN5. The resulting models constituted fABAS. fABAS explained 66/63% (coefficient of determination R(2 of training and validation set of the variance by age in quiet, while 51/50% in active sleep. By means of a logistic regression model using fluctuation range and fetal age, quiet and active sleep were automatically reclassified (94.3/93.1% correct classifications. We did not find relevant gender differences. We conclude that functional brain age can be assessed based on universal developmental indices obtained from autonomic control patterns. fABAS reflect normal complex functional brain maturation. The presented normative data are supplemented by an explorative study of 19 fetuses compromised by intrauterine growth restriction. We observed a shift in the state distribution towards active awakeness. The lower WGA

  13. Structure-function analysis indicates that sumoylation modulates DNA-binding activity of STAT1

    Grönholm Juha

    2012-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background STAT1 is an essential transcription factor for interferon-γ-mediated gene responses. A distinct sumoylation consensus site (ψKxE 702IKTE705 is localized in the C-terminal region of STAT1, where Lys703 is a target for PIAS-induced SUMO modification. Several studies indicate that sumoylation has an inhibitory role on STAT1-mediated gene expression but the molecular mechanisms are not fully understood. Results Here, we have performed a structural and functional analysis of sumoylation in STAT1. We show that deconjugation of SUMO by SENP1 enhances the transcriptional activity of STAT1, confirming a negative regulatory effect of sumoylation on STAT1 activity. Inspection of molecular model indicated that consensus site is well exposed to SUMO-conjugation in STAT1 homodimer and that the conjugated SUMO moiety is directed towards DNA, thus able to form a sterical hindrance affecting promoter binding of dimeric STAT1. In addition, oligoprecipitation experiments indicated that sumoylation deficient STAT1 E705Q mutant has higher DNA-binding activity on STAT1 responsive gene promoters than wild-type STAT1. Furthermore, sumoylation deficient STAT1 E705Q mutant displayed enhanced histone H4 acetylation on interferon-γ-responsive promoter compared to wild-type STAT1. Conclusions Our results suggest that sumoylation participates in regulation of STAT1 responses by modulating DNA-binding properties of STAT1.

  14. Global Indicators Analysis and Consultancy Experience Insights into Correlation between Entrepreneurial Activities and Business Environment

    Jovan Krivokapić

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Many researches and practical experiences clearly indicate the existence of a strong relationship between entrepreneurial activities and the business environment in which these activities are initiated. Although this topic has been quite ignored until the late twentieth century, a lot of studies and consulting practice have contributed to the fact that there are now a number of theories concerning mentioned correlation. These theories aim to offer a model that would provide better utilization of the possibilities from the business environment which could be very important for the development from both macroeconomic and microeconomic aspects. An increasing number of articles on this topic says enough about its importance, and numerous researches by many reputable globally recognized institutions go in favor of this claim. There are many indicators that observe the economic situation in a country or a region from different aspects, so the analyses of these indicators make it possible to determine the specific relationships between entrepreneurial activities and the local and the global business environment. Given the complexity of these relations, the impact cannot be observed partially, without taking into consideration other important factors, but more detailed analyses, however, result in some useful conclusions, which in the proper context can have a positive impact on many economic factors. It is very important to emphasize the fact that the correlation between the business environment and entrepreneurial activities is bidirectional, since this influence is mutual, so that changes in one of these factors can and usually cause some modifications in the other. Frequent series of such iterations actually lead to changes in the business environment, while entrepreneurial activity changes its shape and affects the economy of a country or a region, which is of particular importance for its competitiveness in the era of globalization.

  15. Sensitivity Analysis of Composite Indicators through Mixed Model Anova

    Cristina Davino, Rosaria Romano

    2011-01-01

    The paper proposes a new approach for analysing the stability of Composite Indicators. Starting from the consideration that different subjective choices occur in their construction, the paper emphasizes the importance of investigating the possible alternatives in order to have a clear and objective picture of the phenomenon under investigation. Methods dealing with Composite Indicator stability are known in literature as Sensitivity Analysis. In such a framework, the paper presents a new appr...

  16. A FINANCIAL PROGRAMMING MODEL - REPRESENTATIVE INDICATORS AND SCENARIOS

    STANICA Nicolae Cristian

    2013-01-01

    The article presents the limitations and advantages of a financial programming model applied to Romania's case in order to draw up economic growth scenarios under the government policies conditions. This type of financial programming model gives the best forecasting results for the economies facing periodic restructuring or in case of shifting from economic expansion period to crisis period. The use of models during such instability periods is necessary rather for testing the policies' impact...

  17. Proxima Centauri as a Benchmark for Stellar Activity Indicators in the Near Infrared

    Robertson, Paul; Mahadevan, Suvrath; Roy, Arpita; Ramsey, Lawrence W

    2016-01-01

    A new generation of dedicated Doppler spectrographs will attempt to detect low-mass exoplanets around mid-late M stars at near infrared (NIR) wavelengths, where those stars are brightest and have the most Doppler information content. A central requirement for the success of these instruments is to properly measure the component of radial velocity (RV) variability contributed by stellar magnetic activity and to account for it in exoplanet models of RV data. The wavelength coverage for many of these new instruments will not include the Ca II H&K or H-alpha lines, the most frequently used absorption-line tracers of magnetic activity. Thus, it is necessary to define and characterize NIR activity indicators for mid-late M stars in order to provide simultaneous activity metrics for NIR RV data. We have used the high-cadence UVES observations of the M5.5 dwarf Proxima Centauri from Fuhrmeister et al. (2011) to compare the activity sensitivity of 8 NIR atomic lines to that of H-alpha. We find that equivalent widt...

  18. Models of Teaching: Indicators Influencing Teachers' Perception of Pedagogical Choice

    Nordyke, Alison Michelle

    2011-01-01

    The models of teaching are systematic tools that allow teachers to vary their classroom pedagogical practices to meet the needs of all learners in their classroom. This study was designed to determine key factors that influence teachers' decisions when determining a model of teaching for classroom instruction and to identify how teacher training…

  19. Approaches to Bioeconomic Modelling in correlation with Consumer Model and Biodiversity Indicators

    Ipate Iudith

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study we analysed the characteristics of bio-economic models in agricultural systems and agro-biodiversity indicators. The classical bioeconomic models are used to analyze the human consumption of ecosystems for production. The analysis focuses on changes in a limited set of agrobiodiversity indicators that matter to human beings. In existing bioeconomic models incorporate ecological complexities and dynamics is limited. Although bioeconomic model provides useful methods to integrate economic values into environmental analyses, improved the dynamic interrelationships between natural processes and socio-economic systems is needed to allow an integrated assessment of multiple values. The overview will enable a more informed decision about whether and how bio-economic models/modeling can contribute to the development of integrated environmental decision support tools. The bio economic modeling it is important for evaluating the costs and benefits associated with environmental resource use.

  20. A Sensitivity Model (SM) approach to analyze urban development in Taiwan based on sustainability indicators

    Sustainability indicators have been widely developed to monitor and assess sustainable development. They are expected to guide political decision-making based on their capability to represent states and trends of development. However, using indicators to assess the sustainability of urban strategies and policies has limitations - as they neither reflect the systemic interactions among them, nor provide normative indications in what direction they should be developed. This paper uses a semi-quantitative systematic model tool (Sensitivity Model Tools, SM) to analyze the role of urban development in Taiwan's sustainability. The results indicate that the natural environment in urban area is one of the most critical components and the urban economic production plays a highly active role in affecting Taiwan's sustainable development. The semi-quantitative simulation model integrates sustainability indicators and urban development policy to provide decision-makers with information about the impacts of their decisions on urban development. The system approach incorporated by this paper can be seen as a necessary, but not sufficient, condition for a sustainability assessment. The participatory process of expert participants for providing judgments on the relations between indicator variables is also discussed

  1. DEVELOPMENT OF ENVIRONMENTAL INDICATORS FOR USE IN MACROECONOMIC MODELS

    Kellogg, Robert L.; Goss, Don W.

    1997-01-01

    In the fields of agriculture and resource economics, good economics is predicated by good science. By partnering more with physical scientists, economists will be better able to provide the broad policy-making community with practical recommendations for addressing resource issues. An example of collaboration is presented for the development of environmental indicators of the potential risk to the environment of the loss of pesticides from farm fields, which will be used by economists to adju...

  2. Methodological foundations of evaluation of effectiveness indicators of small-scale business activities

    Ivanova T.

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The methodological approach to the measurement of financial indicators of small-scale enterprises has been developed. It enables to secure the comparability of financial condition indicators and the results of small-scale enterprise activities, and also to develop the methods of vertical integral estimate calculation at separate aspects of financial condition and the results of smallscale enterprise activities.

  3. Merging remotely sensed data, models and indicators for a sustainable development of coastal aquaculture in Algeria

    Brigolin, Daniele; Venier, Chiara; Amine Taji, Mohamed; Lourguioui, Hichem; Mangin, Antoine; Pastres, Roberto

    2014-05-01

    Finfish cage farming is an economically relevant activity, which exerts pressures on coastal systems and thus require a science-based management, based on the Ecosystem Approach, in order to be carry out in a sustainable way. Within MEDINA project (EU 282977), ocean color data and models were used for estimating indicators of pressures of aquaculture installations along the north African coast. These indicators can provide important support for decision makers in the allocation of new zones for aquaculture, by taking into account the suitability of an area for this activity and minimizing negative environmental effects, thus enhancing the social acceptability of aquaculture. The increase in the number of farms represents a strategic objective for the Algerian food production sector, which is currently being supported by different national initiatives. The case-study presented in this work was carried out in the Gulf of Bejaia. Water quality for aquaculture was first screened based on ocean color CDOM data (http://www.globcolour.info/). The SWAN model was subsequently used to propagate offshore wave data and to derive wave height statistics. On this basis, sub-areas of the Gulf were ranked, according their optimality in respect to cage resistance and fish welfare requirements. At the three best sites an integrated aquaculture impact assessment model was therefore applied: this tool allows one to obtain a detailed representation of fish growth and population dynamics inside the rearing cages, and to simulate the deposition of uneaten food and faeces on the sediment and the subsequent mineralization of organic matter. This integrated model was used to produce a set of indicators of the fish cages environmental interaction under different scenarios of forcings (water temperature, feeding, currents). These model-derived indicators could usefully contribute to the implementation of the ecosystem approach for the management of aquaculture activities, also required by the

  4. Fish Assemblage Indicators for the National Rivers and Streams Assessment: Performance of model-based vs. traditionally constructed multimetric indices

    The development of multimetric indices (MMIs) for use in assessing the ecological condition of rivers and streams has advanced in recent years with the use of various types of modeling approaches to factor out the influence of natural variability and improve the performance. Ass...

  5. Observation of Hysteresis between Solar Activity Indicators and -mode Frequency Shifts for Solar Cycle 22

    S. C. Tripathy; Brajesh Kumar; Kiran Jain; A. Bhatnagar

    2000-09-01

    Using intermediate degree p-mode frequency data sets for solar cycle 22, we find that the frequency shifts and magnetic activity indicators show a ``hysteresis" phenomenon. It is observed that the magnetic indices follow different paths for the ascending and descending phases of the solar cycle while for radiative indices, the separation between the paths are well within the error limits.

  6. Indications for laser therapy in diverse models of periodontitis

    Kunin, Anatoly A.; Erina, Stanislava V.; Sokolova, Irina A.; Pankova, Svetlana N.; Ippolitov, Yu. A.; Lepechina, L. I.; Malinovskaya, L. A.; Chitrina, L. L.

    1996-11-01

    Parodontal diseases have an immunological pathogenic mechanism leading to various manifestations and can not be referred to as a common inflammation. The home and foreign research points at active and immunological reaction with the following distraction surrounding tissues of the tooth. Histochemical and biochemical examinations show metabolic disturbances of parodontal tissues. A total sample size of 604 people suffering from average height of chronic generalized parodontitis was examined in the survey. Immunological and histochemical tests were taken before and after a course of laser therapy with the use of helium-neon laser 'YAGODA', an inhibitory and stimulating dosage irradiations and anti-inflammatory dosage irradiations with infrared laser 'UZOR'. We selected a group of patients with the decreased local immunological status on the ground of immunological tests. Histochemical tests shaped the next group with the passive and active forms of parodontitis pathology. The tests data resulted in a method of laser therapy. The investigations confirm that the chronic generalized parodontitis has a shift in tissue immunity of the oral cavity and cell-bound metabolic disturbance of gum epithelium. It is expedient to use the anti-inflammatory dosage irradiations with infrared laser 'UZOR' to correct immunity, and in case of and active process to realize the DNA and RNA synthesis by means of increasing the irradiation with the apparatus 'YAGODA'. The irradiation decreases in case of a passive process.

  7. Comparison of rainfall based SPI drought indices with SMDI and ETDI indices derived from a soil water budget model

    Houcine, A.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2012-04-01

    Modelling soil water budget is a key issue for assessing drought awareness indices based on soil moisture estimation. The aim of the study is to compare drought indices based on rainfall time series to those based on soil water content time series and evapotranspiration time series. To this end, a vertically averaged water budget over the root zone is implemented to assist the estimation of evapotranspiration flux. A daily time step is adopted to run the water budget model for a lumped watershed of 250 km2 under arid climate where recorded meteorological and hydrological data are available for a ten year period. The water balance including 7 parameters is computed including evapotranspiration, runoff and leakage. Soil properties related parameters are derived according to pedo transfer functions while two remaining parameters are considered as data driven and are subject to calibration. The model is calibrated using daily hydro meteorological data (solar radiation, air temperature, air humidity, mean areal rainfall) as well as daily runoff records and also average annual (or regional) evapotranspiration. The latter is estimated using an empirical sub-model. A set of acceptable solutions is identified according to the values of the Nash coefficients for annual and decadal runoffs as well as the relative bias for average annual evapotranspiration. Using these acceptable solutions several drought indices are computed: SPI (standard precipitation index), SMDI (soil moisture deficit index) and ETDI (evapotranspiration deficit index). While SPI indicators are based only on monthly precipitation time series, SMDI are based on weekly mean soil water content as computed by the hydrological model. On the other hand ETDI indices are based on weekly mean potential and actual evapotranspirations as estimated by the meteorological and hydrological models. For SPI evaluation various time scales are considered from one to twelve months (SPI1, SPI3, SPI6, SPI9 and SPI12). For all

  8. Early indices of deviance detection in humans and animal models.

    Grimm, Sabine; Escera, Carles; Nelken, Israel

    2016-04-01

    Detecting unexpected stimuli in the environment is a critical function of the auditory system. Responses to unexpected "deviant" sounds are enhanced compared to responses to expected stimuli. At the human scalp, deviance detection is reflected in the mismatch negativity (MMN) and in an enhancement of the middle-latency response (MLR). Single neurons often respond more strongly to a stimulus when rare than when common, a phenomenon termed stimulus-specific adaptation (SSA). Here we compare stimulus-specific adaptation with scalp-recorded deviance-related responses. We conclude that early markers of deviance detection in the time range of the MLR could be a direct correlate of cortical SSA. Both occur at an early level of cortical activation, both are robust findings with low-probability stimuli, and both show properties of genuine deviance detection. Their causal relation with the later scalp-recorded MMN is a key question in this field. PMID:26656286

  9. Effects of various solar indices on accuracy of Earth’s thermospheric neutral density models

    2009-01-01

    Four kinds of solar indices F10.7, E10.7, S10, Mg10 and four thermospheric neutral density models, i.e., CIRA72, DTM94, NRLMSISE00 and JB2006, are discussed. The CHAMP accelerometer data are used to calculate thermospheric total mass density. Based on the comparison of the model densities with CHAMP observations, the effects of various indices on the model accuracy are detected. It is found that under quiet and moderate solar conditions (F10.7<160), all of the models’ errors are reduced about 15% by using E10.7 instead of F10.7, while under active solar conditions (F10.7>200) the error’s standard deviation using E10.7 increases quickly and causes the models’ accuracy to fall down. With regard to S10, Mg10, their effects under quiet solar conditions are inconspicuous. If under active solar conditions, they can reduce the model error’s standard deviation by 5%-10%, implying that S10, Mg10 make the model error more stable. The JB2006 model, which was constructed by multi-solar-index (F10.7, S10, Mg10), is compared with DTM94 and NRLMSISE00 based on single-solar-index. It is found that JB2006’s accuracy is better than DTM94’s, and is close to NRLMSISE00 under the quiet solar condition. During the solar burst occurring on October 26, 2003, JB2006 has been in best agreement with CHAMP observations. All in all, the new indices may improve thermospheric density models’ accuracy under some special conditions. Concretely, E10.7 may reduce the average error of models and S10, Mg10 may prevent the error’s divergence.

  10. Event-Based Activity Modeling

    Bækgaard, Lars

    2004-01-01

    We present and discuss a modeling approach that supports event-based modeling of information and activity in information systems. Interacting human actors and IT-actors may carry out such activity. We use events to create meaningful relations between information structures and the related...

  11. The histeresis of the indices of solar activity and of the ionospheric indices in 11-yr cycles. The histeresis of the stellar activity indices in the cyclic activity similar to the Sun

    Bruevich, E A; Kazachevskaya, T V; Katyushina, V V; Nusinov, A A

    2016-01-01

    The analysis of the effect of the hysteresis, which manifests itself in an ambiguous relationship of radiation from the photosphere, chromosphere and corona on the rise and decline phases of the solar and stellar activity cycles have done. Some indices of solar activity: the flux of the hydrogen Lyman-alpha emission, the 10.7 cm flux, the sunspot number SSN, the flux in the coronal green line 530.3 nm, the solar constant TSI and the 280 nm Mg II flux were studied. The stars with the well-determined cycles were examined to detect the effect of hysteresis between the chromosphere's S-index CaII fluxes versus the photosphere's fluxes Fphotosphere.

  12. Imaging activity in astrocytes and neurons with genetically encoded calcium indicators following in utero electroporation.

    Gee, J Michael; Gibbons, Meredith B; Taheri, Marsa; Palumbos, Sierra; Morris, S Craig; Smeal, Roy M; Flynn, Katherine F; Economo, Michael N; Cizek, Christian G; Capecchi, Mario R; Tvrdik, Petr; Wilcox, Karen S; White, John A

    2015-01-01

    Complex interactions between networks of astrocytes and neurons are beginning to be appreciated, but remain poorly understood. Transgenic mice expressing fluorescent protein reporters of cellular activity, such as the GCaMP family of genetically encoded calcium indicators (GECIs), have been used to explore network behavior. However, in some cases, it may be desirable to use long-established rat models that closely mimic particular aspects of human conditions such as Parkinson's disease and the development of epilepsy following status epilepticus. Methods for expressing reporter proteins in the rat brain are relatively limited. Transgenic rat technologies exist but are fairly immature. Viral-mediated expression is robust but unstable, requires invasive injections, and only works well for fairly small genes (option of co-expressing a cytosolic tdTomato protein. A binary system consisting of a plasmid carrying a piggyBac inverted terminal repeat (ITR)-flanked CAG-GCaMP-IRES-tdTomato cassette and a separate plasmid encoding for expression of piggyBac transposase was employed to stably express GCaMP and tdTomato. The plasmids were co-electroporated on embryonic days 13.5-14.5 and astrocytic and neuronal activity was subsequently imaged in acute or cultured brain slices prepared from the cortex or hippocampus. Large spontaneous transients were detected in slices obtained from rats of varying ages up to 127 days. In this report, we demonstrate the utility of this toolset for interrogating astrocytic and neuronal activity in the rat brain. PMID:25926768

  13. IAEA activities related to safety indicators, time frames and reference scenarios

    The fundamental principles for the safe management of radioactive waste have been agreed internationally and form the basis for the Joint Convention on the Safety of Spent Fuel Management and on the Safety of Radioactive Waste Management that entered into force in June 2001. Protection of human health and the environment and safety of facilities (including radioactive waste disposal facilities) are widely recognised principles to be followed and demonstrated in post-closure safety assessment of waste repositories. Dose and risk are at present internationally agreed safety criteria, used for judging the acceptability of such facilities. However, there have been a number of activities initiated and co-ordinated by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) which have provided an international forum for discussion and consensus building on the use safety indicators which are complementary to dose and risk. The Agency has been working on the definition of other safety indicators, such as flux, time, environmental concentration, etc.; the desired characteristics, and use of these indicators in different time frames. The IAEA has focused on safety indicators related to geological disposal, exploring their role in the development of a safety case, evaluating the advantages and disadvantages of using other safety indicators and how they complement the dose and risk indicators. The use of these indicators have been discussed also from regulatory perspective, mainly in terms of achieving reasonable assurance and confidence in safety assessments for waste repositories and decision making in the presence of uncertainty in the context of disposal of long-lived waste. Considerable effort has also been expended by the Agency on the development and application of principles for defining critical groups and biospheres for deep geological repositories. One of the important and successful IAEA programmes in this field is the Biosphere Modelling and Assessment (BIOMASS) project

  14. Reflection of disease activity in rheumatoid arthritis by indices of activation of the classical complement pathway.

    Makinde, V A; Senaldi, G; Jawad, A S; Berry, H; Vergani, D

    1989-01-01

    Levels of C4d, a fragment of C4 generated during activation of the classical complement pathway, were measured in the plasma of 77 patients with rheumatoid arthritis and 30 healthy subjects. Disease activity was judged according to Ritchie's articular index to be mildly active in 31 (group 1), moderately active in 29 (group 2), and severely active in 17 patients (group 3). Plasma levels of C3d, a fragment of C3, and serum levels of C4, C3, and immune complexes were also measured. The ratios C...

  15. Dynamic energy conservation model REDUCE. Extension with experience curves, energy efficiency indicators and user's guide

    The main objective of the energy conservation model REDUCE (Reduction of Energy Demand by Utilization of Conservation of Energy) is the evaluation of the effectiveness of economical, financial, institutional, and regulatory measures for improving the rational use of energy in end-use sectors. This report presents the results of additional model development activities, partly based on the first experiences in a previous project. Energy efficiency indicators have been added as an extra tool for output analysis in REDUCE. The methodology is described and some examples are given. The model has been extended with a method for modelling the effects of technical development on production costs, by means of an experience curve. Finally, the report provides a 'users guide', by describing in more detail the input data specification as well as all menus and buttons. 19 refs

  16. Spatial path models with multiple indicators and multiple causes: mental health in US counties.

    Congdon, Peter

    2011-06-01

    This paper considers a structural model for the impact on area mental health outcomes (poor mental health, suicide) of spatially structured latent constructs: deprivation, social capital, social fragmentation and rurality. These constructs are measured by multiple observed effect indicators, with the constructs allowed to be correlated both between and within areas. However, in the scheme developed here, particular latent constructs may also be influenced by known variables, or, via path sequences, by other constructs, possibly nonlinearly. For example, area social capital may be measured by effect indicators (e.g. associational density, charitable activity), but influenced as causes by other constructs (e.g. area deprivation), and by observed features of the socio-ethnic structure of areas. A model incorporating these features is applied to suicide mortality and the prevalence of poor mental health in 3141 US counties, which are related to the latent spatial constructs and to observed variables (e.g. county ethnic mix). PMID:22749588

  17. 13C-DEPLETED MICROBIAL LIPIDS INDICATE SEASONAL METHANOTROPHIC ACTIVITY IN SHALLOW ESTUARINE SEDIMENTS

    Compound specific isotope analysis was combined with phospholipid fatty acid (PLFA) analysis to identify methanotrophic activity in members of the sedimentary microbial community in the Altamaha and Savannah River estuaries in Georgia. 13C-depleted PLFAs indicate methane utilizat...

  18. Active Video Games and Health Indicators in Children and Youth: A Systematic Review

    LeBlanc, Allana G; Jean-Philippe Chaput; Allison McFarlane; Colley, Rachel C; David Thivel; Biddle, Stuart J.H.; Ralph Maddison; Leatherdale, Scott T; Tremblay, Mark S.

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Active video games (AVGs) have gained interest as a way to increase physical activity in children and youth. The effect of AVGs on acute energy expenditure (EE) has previously been reported; however, the influence of AVGs on other health-related lifestyle indicators remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review aimed to explain the relationship between AVGs and nine health and behavioural indicators in the pediatric population (aged 0-17 years). DATA SOURCES: Online databases...

  19. N-acetyl -β-D-glucosaminidase activity in cow milk as an indicator of mastitis.

    Hovinen, Mari; Simojoki, Heli; Pösö, Reeta; Suolaniemi, Jenni; Kalmus, Piret; Suojala, Leena; Pyörälä, Satu

    2016-05-01

    Activity of lysosomal N-acetyl-β-d-glucosaminidase (NAGase) in milk has been used as an indicator of bovine mastitis. We studied NAGase activity of 808 milk samples from healthy quarters and quarters of cows with spontaneous subclinical and clinical mastitis. Associations between milk NAGase activity and milk somatic cell count (SCC), mastitis causing pathogen, quarter, parity, days in milk (DIM) and season were studied. In addition, the performance of NAGase activity in detecting clinical and subclinical mastitis and distinguishing infections caused by minor and major bacteria was investigated. Our results indicate that NAGase activity can be used to detect both subclinical and clinical mastitis with a high level of accuracy (0·85 and 0·99). Incomplete correlation between NAGase activity and SCC suggests that a substantial proportion of NAGase activity comes from damaged epithelial cells of the udder in addition to somatic cells. We therefore recommend determination of NAGase activity from quarter foremilk after at least six hours from the last milking using the method described. Samples should be frozen before analysis. NAGase activity should be interpreted according to DIM, at least during the first month of lactation. Based on the results of the present study, a reference value for normal milk NAGase activity of 0·1-1·04 pmoles 4-MU/min/μl for cows with ≥30 DIM (196 samples) could be proposed. We consider milk NAGase activity to be an accurate indicator of subclinical and clinical mastitis. PMID:27210494

  20. Mathematical model for estimating of technical and technological indicators of railway stations operation

    D.M. Kozachenko

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The article aims to create a mathematical model of the railway station functioning for the solving of problems of station technology development on the plan-schedule basis. Methodology. The methods of graph theory and object-oriented analysis are used as research methods. The model of the station activity plan-schedule includes a model of technical equipment of the station (plan-schedule net and a model of the station functioning , which are formalized on the basis of parametric graphs. Findings. The presented model is implemented as an application to the graphics package AutoCAD. The software is developed in Visual LISP and Visual Basic. Taking into account that the construction of the plan-schedule is mostly a traditional process of adding, deleting, and modifying of icons, the developed interface is intuitively understandable for a technologist and practically does not require additional training. Originality. A mathematical model was created on the basis of the theory of graphs and object-oriented analysis in order to evaluate the technical and process of railway stations indicators; it is focused on solving problems of technology development of their work. Practical value. The proposed mathematical model is implemented as an application to the graphics package of AutoCAD. The presence of a mathematical model allows carrying out an automatic analysis of the plan-schedule and, thereby, reducing the period of its creation more than twice.

  1. Motivation for Physical Activity and Mental Health Indicators in Male Gym Attendees

    Awruk Katarzyna; Janowski Konrad

    2016-01-01

    The significance of physical activity for mental well-being has been discussed in detail in the literature on the subject. However, a question arises concerning the relationship between motivation to exercise and psychological functioning. The objective of the present study was to test the relationship between the types of motivation for physical activity and selected indicators of mental health.

  2. Active control: Wind turbine model

    Bindner, H.

    1999-01-01

    This report is a part of the reporting of the work done in the project 'Active Control of Wind Turbines'. This project aim is to develop a simulation model for design of control systems for turbines with pitch control and to use that model to designcontrollers. This report describes the model...... developed for controller design and analysis. Emphasis has been put on establishment of simple models describing the dynamic behavior of the wind turbine in adequate details for controller design. This hasbeen done with extensive use of measurements as the basis for selection of model complexity and model....... The models are all formulated as linear differential equations. The models are validated throughcomparisons with measurements performed on a Vestas WD 34 400 kW wind turbine. It is shown from a control point of view simple linear models can be used to describe the dynamic behavior of a pitch...

  3. Physical activity is not associated with spirometric indices in lung-healthy German youth.

    Smith, Maia P; von Berg, Andrea; Berdel, Dietrich; Bauer, Carl-Peter; Hoffmann, Barbara; Koletzko, Sibylle; Nowak, Dennis; Heinrich, Joachim; Schulz, Holger

    2016-08-01

    In lung disease, physical activity improves lung function and reduces morbidity. However, healthy populations are not well studied. We estimate the relationship between spirometric indices and accelerometric physical activity in lung-healthy adolescents.895 nonsmoking German adolescents without chronic lung disease (45% male, mean±sd age 15.2±0.26 years) from the GINIplus and LISAplus cohorts completed questionnaires, spirometry, 7-day accelerometry and an activity diary. Physical activity was measured as minutes, quintiles and regularity of daily moderate, vigorous and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), participation in sport and active commuting to school. Primary outcomes were forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced vital capacity (FVC), FEV1/FVC and forced expiratory flow at 25-75% of FVC; they were separately correlated with physical activity and adjusted for confounders of respiratory function, including early-life exposures.Adolescents averaged 40 min MVPA per day, typical for European youth. 79% participated in sports and 51% commuted actively. An association was suggested between 3% higher FVC (∼100 mL) and either extreme MVPA quintile or percentage of days with >30 min MVPA (plifestyle and physical activity were nonsignificant.Spirometric indices were not significantly associated with active lifestyle or measures of activity in lung-healthy adolescents after adjustment for confounding and multiple-comparison artefacts. PMID:27009173

  4. Imaging activity in astrocytes and neurons with genetically encoded calcium indicators following in utero electroporation

    J. Michael eGee

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Complex interactions between networks of astrocytes and neurons are beginning to be appreciated, but remain poorly understood. Transgenic mice expressing fluorescent protein reporters of cellular activity, such as the GCaMP family of genetically encoded calcium indicators, have been used to explore network behavior. However, in some cases, it may be desirable to use long-established rat models that closely mimic particular aspects of human conditions such as Parkinson’s disease and the development of epilepsy following status epilepticus. Methods for expressing reporter proteins in the rat brain are relatively limited. Transgenic rat technologies exist but are fairly immature. Viral-mediated expression is robust but unstable, requires invasive injections, and only works well for fairly small genes (< 5 kb. In utero electroporation offers a valuable alternative. IUE is a proven method for transfecting populations of astrocytes and neurons in the rat brain without the strict limitations on transgene size. We built a toolset of IUE plasmids carrying GCaMP variants 3, 6s or 6f driven by CAG and targeted to the cytosol or the plasma membrane. Because low baseline fluorescence of GCaMP can hinder identification of transfected cells, we included the option of co-expressing a cytosolic tdTomato protein. A binary system consisting of a plasmid carrying a piggyBac inverted terminal repeat-flanked CAG-GCaMP-IRES-tdTomato cassette and a separate plasmid encoding for expression of piggyBac transposase was employed to stably express GCaMP and tdTomato. The plasmids were co-electroporated on embryonic days 13.5-14.5 and astrocytic and neuronal activity was subsequently imaged in acute or cultured brain slices prepared from the cortex or hippocampus. Large spontaneous transients were detected in slices obtained from rats of varying ages up to 127 days. In this report, we demonstrate the utility of this toolset for interrogating astrocytic and neuronal

  5. Active Learning for Player Modeling

    Shaker, Noor; Abou-Zleikha, Mohamed; Shaker, Mohammad

    2015-01-01

    the full dataset) is necessary for the construction of accu- rate models that are as accurate as those constructed from the full dataset. This indicates the potential of the method and its benefits in cases when obtaining the data is expensive or time, storage or effort consuming. The results also...... indicate that the method can be used online during the content generation process where the mod- els can improve and better content can be presented as the game is being played....

  6. Impacts of Human Activity on Biodiversity——An Approach to Driving Force indicators

    RichardDawson; CaoZhiping

    2005-01-01

    The impact of human activity on biodiversity is very complicated, making it difficult to design practical indicators for assessment. Currently, state and response indicators are listed within Chapter 15 of Agenda 21, but no mention is made of driving force indicators and how they relate to biodiversity protection. This paper represents an effort to identify and then operationalize the idea of driving force indicators at national level. Five human induced factors affecting blodiversity were discussed: (a) habitat toss and fragmentation; (b) overexploitation of resources; (c) species introduction; (d) pollution; and (e) climate change. From these five factors, a subset was selected to serve as possible driving force indicators: (1) habitat loss, (2) the ratio of exotic species to indigenous ones, and (3) the change in pollution status. Although the three indicators are relatively simple, they cover the most important human impacts on biodiversity and offer the potential for further redefinition and ultimate use within the spirit of biodiversity protection.

  7. Heme oxygenase activity correlates with serum indices of iron homeostasis in healthy nonsmokers

    Heme oxygenase (HO) catalyzes the breakdown of heme to carbon monoxide, iron, and biliverdin. While the use of genetically altered animal models in investigation has established distinct associations between HO activity and systemic iron availability, studies have not yet confirm...

  8. THE INTEGRATED ASSESSMENT OF THE LOCAL GOVERNMENT ACTIVITY USING THE SYSTEM OF INDICATORS

    Elena I. Danilina

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The assessment of the local government performance, as any other serious work, is improved and undergone major changes every year. The objective of this article-is the research of the methodological aspects of forming the system of indicators, which reflect the local government performance. The difficulties with which the constituent entities of the Russian Federation face while making assessment according to the procedure accepted on the federal level have been exposed. Some imperfections of the currently used procedure of the integrated assessment have been stated. The author concludes that the existing problems of acquiring the official and timely information from the statistical bodies, the absence of accounting the budgetary efficiency of costs and the financial status of certain municipal units, the difference in the approaches and methods of holding the opinion polls of the constituent entities of the Russian Federation, call into a question the issue of fairness of the assessment results. The conducted study has allowed the author to identify the possible opportunities for the further studies. Although the methods do not require making the assessment of the performance targets approved in the strategies of the municipalities, it would be worthwhile to consider these indicators over time. While assessing the local government performance, it is recommended to use two approaches. One of them-which is obligatory for all (according to the procedure accepted on the federal level. Another approach-is holding own secondary monitoring, involving self-assessment of the activity on the effective territory management, while paying attention to the determination of the areas requiring the priority attention of the local governments. Municipalities are recommended to study the available foreign practices and the Russian achievements in the field of assessing the public body performance, which could include, for example, the European model of CAF.

  9. Constructing indices representing supportiveness of the physical environment for walking using the Rasch measurement model

    Pikora Terri J

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The objectives of this study were to use the Rasch model to 1 assess the psychometric properties of a physical environmental audit instrument and 2 to develop indices of interrelated environmental attributes that summarize environmental supportiveness for walking. Methods A set of items were derived representing two conceptual physical environmental constructs: 1 functional/safety, and; 2 aesthetics. Ad hoc criteria based on point-biserial and Rasch-based fit statistics were used to examine the construct validity and internal reliability of the two constructs. Results The Rasch-based fit statistics assisted in identifying 12 items that belonged to the functional/safety construct and 4 items that belonged to the aesthetic construct. The reliability of the two constructs were low to moderate (functional/safety rβ = 0.19 and aesthetics rβ = 0.35. Conclusion Given the vast number of built environmental attributes, a means of developing summary indices is essential. Future studies should assess the reliability and validity of indices that summarize physical environmental characteristics conducive to walking before testing them in predictive models of physical activity. More research examining procedures for measuring the built environment and techniques for analyzing environmental data are needed to guide future research in this area.

  10. 234U/238U activity ratio in groundwater - an indicator of past hydrogeological processes

    In this report we describe the long-term behaviour of the uranium isotopes, U-234 and U-238 in groundwater systems. U is a redox sensitive element what for its behaviour is largely controlled by changes in the environmental conditions. A striking feature in U isotope geochemistry is seemingly different behaviour of U-238 and U-234. U isotopes fractionate at the rock-groundwater interface depending on chemical and radiological factors. Changes of the redox conditions in groundwater may thus affect the behaviour of U and its isotopes resulting in variable U concentration and U-234/U-238 activity ratios (AR). We examined the formation of ARs in different groundwater types from a geochemical and a physical/radiological point of view. It was envisaged that AR in groundwater is the consequence of radiological, chemical and hydrological processes. Groundwater condition (redox, flow, etc.) play a very important role in controlling the mass flow of U isotopes. Quantitative α-recoil modelling showed that α-recoil induced flux can be considered insignificant in cases of high-flow. This was an important finding because the exclusion of direct a-recoil means that it is groundwater chemistry and its variations which controls the U-234 mass flow and the formation of AR. Therefore, AR values could be used more confidently to indicate past redox changes and possibly flow paths. (orig.)

  11. Application of fit indices in testing the theoretical models in psychology: Possibilities and limitations

    Lazarević Ljiljana

    2008-01-01

    This paper deals with the fit indices used in Structural Equation Modelling (SEM) for testing theoretical models and the difficulties that can occur during the testing of theoretical models in different fields of psychology. The paper discusses the basic assumptions of SEM and presents the indices used for assessing the fit of theoretical models. This paper also presents the procedures for calculating the basic statistic for assessing the fit of models (χ2), as well as for calculating the mos...

  12. The influence of economic indicators over the management activities for company in sports

    Sebahattin DEVECIOGLU; Laurentiu-Gabriel TALAGHIR; Teodora Mihaela ICONOMESCU; Carmen CRETU

    2013-01-01

    The sports activities permanently have attracted investors' attention because the target audience is very varied. Whether they are addressing for sports performance or for sport for all, the companies which provide services or products want to gain the profits. To achieve profits, managers should consider about elements of the company's evolution to profitability besides market demand. The purpose of our paper is that to show some economic indicators which are useful in management activities....

  13. Blood coagulation parameters and activity indices in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus

    A. A. Arshinov

    2005-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective. To assess coagulation parameters and activity indices in pts with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE. Material and methods . 86 pts with SLE (83 female and 3 male were examined. 12 of them had antiphospholipid syndrome. Mean age was 35,9±1,5 years (from 18 to 58 years, mean disease duration was 9,8+1,4 years. Control group consisted of 60 healthy volunteers with mean age 37,1+4,1 years. SLE activity assessment was performed with SLAM, SLEDAI and ECLAM indices. Results. SLE pts showed 5-fold (p<0,01 increase of spontaneous platelets aggregation and more than 3-fold increase of factor von Willebrand antigen (FWA concentration. Platelet activation in pts was accompanied by decrease of platelet aggregation with collagen (on 27%, p<0,01. Characteristic sign of coagulation hemostasis activation was significant increase of soluble fibrin-monomer complexes (SFMC concentration on 81 % (p<0,01 so as increase D-dimers level in 53,3% of pts. Fibrinogen concentration was increased on 29%, spontaneous fibrinolysis parameters were decreased on 20%, antithrombin (AT 111 - on 21% in comparison with control. Direct correlation between activity indiccs and SFMC(ECLAM, r=0,5, fibrinogen concentration (SLAM, r=0,34, D- dimers level (ECLAM, r=0,5, spontaneous platelet aggregation (ECLAM, r=0,5 so as inverse correlation with AT III activity (SLEDAI, r-0,73 was revealed. Conclusion. Changes of hemostasis parameters in SLE may serve as predictors of thrombotic disorders development and indication to drug correction of blood coagulation disorders. Direct correlation between blood coagulation system activity and indices of SLE activity.

  14. Activity of a social dynamics model

    Reia, Sandro M.; Neves, Ubiraci P. C.

    2015-10-01

    Axelrod's model was proposed to study interactions between agents and the formation of cultural domains. It presents a transition from a monocultural to a multicultural steady state which has been studied in the literature by evaluation of the relative size of the largest cluster. In this article, we propose new measurements based on the concept of activity per agent to study the Axelrod's model on the square lattice. We show that the variance of system activity can be used to indicate the critical points of the transition. Furthermore the frequency distribution of the system activity is able to show a coexistence of phases typical of a first order phase transition. Finally, we verify a power law dependence between cluster activity and cluster size for multicultural steady state configurations at the critical point.

  15. [Is restriction of physical activity indicated in the prevention of retinal detachment?].

    Karel, I

    1993-06-01

    The author evaluates the importance of different vitreoretinal factors and the role of indirect injury in the pathogenesis of detachment of the retina/DR/and holds the following view as regards subjects inclined to pursue physical activity. Numerous and frequent vitreoretinal risk factors are a forecast of DR only in a small fraction of patients. Indirect injury is not recognized as a cause of DR. Risk factors incl. medium-grade and high-grade myopia are not an indication for restriction of physical activity nor for Caesarean section in pregnant women. Restriction of physical activity acts as a psychic trauma and does not prevent the development of DR. PMID:8348645

  16. Technology and industrialization in Spanish economy from 1950 to 1960: the patents as technological activity indicators

    The goal of this research is to study the innovative activity developed in the fifties by the Spanish industry focussing on the foreign technology incorporated in the activity of several industrial sectors. The structure of innovation in each sector has been characterized by using patents as technological activity indicators. The data of patents registered in Spain belonging to the 1950-1960 period have been obtained taking into account the research developed by the Department of Business Administration of the Universidad Politecnica de Madrid through a subsidy granted by the Spanish Patent Office. (Author)

  17. Measuring Innovation Oriented Activities for Business Services: Traditional versus Knowledge Based Indicators

    Steiner, Michael

    2001-01-01

    Measuring Innovation Oriented Activities: Traditional versus Knowledge Based Indicators and their Differences across Sectors Michael STEINER, Christoph ADAMETZ, Mirjam NOVAKOVIC, Institute of Technology and Regional Policy, JOANNEUM RESEARCH, Elisabethstrasse 20/II, 8010 Graz, Austria and Department of Economics, Karl-Franzens-Universität Graz, Universitätsstraße 15/4, 8010 Graz E-Mail: , , Indicato...

  18. Long-term stellar activity variations of stars from the HARPS M-dwarf sample: Comparison between activity indices

    da Silva, J Gomes; Bonfils, X

    2010-01-01

    We used four known chromospheric activity indicators to measure long-term activity variations in a sample of 23 M-dwarf stars from the HARPS planet search program. We compared the indices using weighted Pearson correlation coefficients and found that in general (i) the correlation between $S_{CaII}$ and \\ion{Na}{i} is very strong and does not depend on the activity level of the stars, (ii) the correlation between our $S_{CaII}$ and H$\\alpha$ seems to depend on the activity level of the stars, and (iii) there is no strong correlation between $S_{CaII}$ and \\ion{He}{i} for these type of stars.

  19. Quality of life and physical activity as indicators of health-preserving competence of teachers

    Pavlova Iu.A.

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The quality of life and physical activity of teachers of physical culture, basic of health, labour, the defense of Motherland and pedagogue-organizers from secondary schools Lviv region (Ukraine were investigated. The 402 persons (age 24-78 years were surveyed with the use of questionnaires MOS SF 36 and IPAQ. The highest quality of life and level of physical activity have teachers of physical culture. It is considered the quality of life of teachers of other subjects similar to persons with chronic diseases. The level of physical activity in leisure time was particularly low for teachers of Basic of Health and pedagogue-organizers. The teachers spent no more than 433 MET-min/ week for moderate- and vigorous-intensity activity. The level of physical activity of teachers (besides the physical education teachers was insufficient to improve health and indicate about low level of health-preserving competence.

  20. Hierarchical modeling of active materials

    Intelligent (or smart) materials are increasingly becoming key materials for use in actuators and sensors. If an intelligent material is used as a sensor, it can be embedded in a variety of structure functioning as a health monitoring system to make their life longer with high reliability. If an intelligent material is used as an active material in an actuator, it plays a key role of making dynamic movement of the actuator under a set of stimuli. This talk intends to cover two different active materials in actuators, (1) piezoelectric laminate with FGM microstructure, (2) ferromagnetic shape memory alloy (FSMA). The advantage of using the FGM piezo laminate is to enhance its fatigue life while maintaining large bending displacement, while that of use in FSMA is its fast actuation while providing a large force and stroke capability. Use of hierarchical modeling of the above active materials is a key design step in optimizing its microstructure for enhancement of their performance. I will discuss briefly hierarchical modeling of the above two active materials. For FGM piezo laminate, we will use both micromechanical model and laminate theory, while for FSMA, the modeling interfacing nano-structure, microstructure and macro-behavior is discussed. (author)

  1. Diffusion models and neural activity

    Ricciardi, L. M.; Lánský, Petr

    London : Nature publishing group, 2003 - (Nadel, L.), s. 968-972 ISBN 0-333-79261-0 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA309/02/0168 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z5011922 Keywords : Neuronal activity, Diffusion model Subject RIV: ED - Physiology

  2. Active video games and health indicators in children and youth: a systematic review.

    Allana G LeBlanc

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Active video games (AVGs have gained interest as a way to increase physical activity in children and youth. The effect of AVGs on acute energy expenditure (EE has previously been reported; however, the influence of AVGs on other health-related lifestyle indicators remains unclear. OBJECTIVE: This systematic review aimed to explain the relationship between AVGs and nine health and behavioural indicators in the pediatric population (aged 0-17 years. DATA SOURCES: Online databases (MEDLINE, EMBASE, psycINFO, SPORTDiscus and Cochrane Central Database and personal libraries were searched and content experts were consulted for additional material. DATA SELECTION: Included articles were required to have a measure of AVG and at least one relevant health or behaviour indicator: EE (both habitual and acute, adherence and appeal (i.e., participation and enjoyment, opportunity cost (both time and financial considerations, and adverse events, adiposity, cardiometabolic health, energy intake, adaptation (effects of continued play, learning and rehabilitation, and video game evolution (i.e., sustainability of AVG technology. RESULTS: 51 unique studies, represented in 52 articles were included in the review. Data were available from 1992 participants, aged 3-17 years, from 8 countries, and published from 2006-2012. Overall, AVGs are associated with acute increases in EE, but effects on habitual physical activity are not clear. Further, AVGs show promise when used for learning and rehabilitation within special populations. Evidence related to other indicators was limited and inconclusive. CONCLUSIONS: Controlled studies show that AVGs acutely increase light- to moderate-intensity physical activity; however, the findings about if or how AVG lead to increases in habitual physical activity or decreases in sedentary behaviour are less clear. Although AVGs may elicit some health benefits in special populations, there is not sufficient evidence to

  3. Usability of solar radius variations as an indicator of solar activity and influence on climate

    Kilcik, A.; Golbasi, O.; Kilic, H.; Ozkan, V.; Yuceer, A. Y.

    In this study we investigated whether the solar semi-diameter could be treated as an indicator of solar activity. We applied the cross-correlation method to show the agreement of solar radius data with solar irradiance measurements. We used the solar semi-diameter data obtained from astrolabe observations at TUBITAK National Observatory (TUG) / Turkey and at Cote d'Azur Observatory (OCA)/France. We treated the regional air surface temperature measured in Antalya/Turkey as a climate indicator. Result of our analyses, indicates a considerable correlation (-0.63) between the solar radius and solar irradiance measurements. In addition, a comparison of solar radius and regional temperature values indicated that there is an acceptable correlative and periodical agreement between the two quantities.

  4. Spatial Memory Activity Distributions Indicate the Hippocampus Operates in a Continuous Manner

    Brittany M. Jeye

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available There is a long-standing debate as to whether recollection is a continuous/graded process or a threshold/all-or-none process. In the current spatial memory functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI study, we examined the hippocampal activity distributions—the magnitude of activity as a function of memory strength—to determine the nature of processing in this region. During encoding, participants viewed abstract shapes in the left or right visual field. During retrieval, old shapes were presented at fixation and participants classified each shape as previously in the “left” or “right” visual field followed by an “unsure”–“sure”–“very sure” confidence rating. The contrast of left-hits and left-misses produced two activations in the hippocampus. The hippocampal activity distributions for left shapes and right shapes were completely overlapping. Critically, the magnitude of activity associated with right-miss-very sure responses was significantly greater than zero. These results support the continuous model of recollection, which predicts overlapping activity distributions, and contradict the threshold model of recollection, which predicts a threshold above which only one distribution exists. Receiver operating characteristic analysis did not distinguish between models. The present results demonstrate that the hippocampus operates in a continuous manner during recollection and highlight the utility of analyzing activity distributions to determine the nature of neural processing.

  5. THE ANALYSIS OF PERFORMANCES OF THE ENTREPRISE THROUGH INDICATORS OF THE VOLUME OF ACTIVITY

    POP Fãnuța

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The activity of any economic entity is aimed at providing objects, works and services meant to fulfill certain social needs, as well as at achieving a certain level of profit which would enable the entreprise to maintain and/or develop in business. In order to reach these objectives, the offer of the entreprise should meet the demand of the market whithin which it activates in terms of: volume (how much it is demanded?, structure (what brands are demanded and what is their share in the total production?, rhythmicity (during what span of time? and level of quality (does the offer of the entity meet the qualitative level demanded by clients?. The entreprise develops interconditioning relations with its external factors, namely clients, suppliers, the state, employees, shareholders, banks, the government and budgetary institutions; the degree to which their expectations are met reflects the efficiency of the activity undertaken. Among the main indicators of performance, one could cite the turnover and the added value that reflect the economic raise of the entity, conditions its strategic position and defines its place in relation to other competitors, within the branch of activity concerned. A high level of turnover and added value guarantees that the economic entity develops a profitable activity, that it is expanding and developing, a fact with consequences upon the main economic-financial indicators but also upon the efficiency of the activity of the economic entity. The main objectives of the present paper are to point out the dynamics of the indicators of volume of activity, of factors of influence and of their strategies of growth. In addition to that, the study tries to ground and analyse theoretical aspects by providing some practical examples based on real data obtained from an economic entity during the period 2008-2011, but also data published by the INSSE for the same period, in order to observe its evolution in relation to other

  6. Beyond the model democracy: observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin

    Shiogama, Hideo; Emori, Seita; Hanasaki, Naota; Abe, Manabu; Masutomi, Yuji; Takahashi, Kiyoshi; Nozawa, Toru

    2013-04-01

    Climate warming due to human activities will be accompanied by hydrological cycle changes. Economies, societies and ecosystems in South America (SA) are vulnerable to such water resource changes. Hence, water resource impact assessments for SA, and corresponding adaptation and mitigation policies, have attracted increased attention. However, substantial uncertainties remain in the current water resource assessments that are based on multiple coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation models. This uncertainty varies from significant wetting to catastrophic drying. By applying a statistical method, we characterised the uncertainty and identified global-scale metrics for measuring the reliability of water resource assessments in SA. Here we show that, whereas the ensemble mean assessment suggested wetting across most of SA, the observational constraints indicate a higher probability of drying in the Amazon basin. Naive over-reliance on the consensus of models can lead to inappropriate decision making. Reference: Shiogama, H. et al. Observational constraints indicate risk of drying in the Amazon basin. Nature Communications 2:253 doi: 10.1038/ncomms1252 (2011).

  7. Developing of Indicators of an E-Learning Benchmarking Model for Higher Education Institutions

    Sae-Khow, Jirasak

    2014-01-01

    This study was the development of e-learning indicators used as an e-learning benchmarking model for higher education institutes. Specifically, it aimed to: 1) synthesize the e-learning indicators; 2) examine content validity by specialists; and 3) explore appropriateness of the e-learning indicators. Review of related literature included…

  8. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators: a prospective study

    Jensen, Dorte; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning;

    2003-01-01

    This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators.......This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators....

  9. Cardiorespiratory fitness is a stronger indicator of cardiometabolic risk factors and risk prediction than self-reported physical activity levels.

    Gray, Benjamin J; Stephens, Jeffrey W; Williams, Sally P; Davies, Christine A; Turner, Daniel; Bracken, Richard M

    2015-11-01

    This study investigated the relationships of self-reported physical activity levels and cardiorespiratory fitness in 81 males to assess which measurement is the greatest indicator of cardiometabolic risk. Physical activity levels were determined by the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire tool and cardiorespiratory fitness assessed using the Chester Step Test. Cardiovascular disease risk was estimated using the QRISK2, Framingham Lipids, Framingham body mass index and Joint British Societies' Guidelines-2 equations, and type 2 diabetes mellitus risk calculated using QDiabetes, Leicester Risk Assessment, Finnish Diabetes Risk Score and Cambridge Risk Score models. Categorising employees by cardiorespiratory fitness categories ('Excellent/Good' vs 'Average/Below Average') identified more differences in cardiometabolic risk factor (body mass index, waist circumference, total cholesterol, total cholesterol:high-density lipoprotein ratio, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, HbA(1c)) scores than physical activity (waist circumference only). Cardiorespiratory fitness levels also demonstrated differences in all four type 2 diabetes mellitus risk prediction models and both the QRISK2 and Joint British Societies' Guidelines-2 cardiovascular disease equations. Furthermore, significant negative correlations (p < 0.001) were observed between individual cardiorespiratory fitness values and estimated risk in all prediction models. In conclusion, from this preliminary observational study, cardiorespiratory fitness levels reveal a greater number of associations with markers of cardiovascular disease or type 2 diabetes mellitus compared to physical activity determined by the General Practice Physical Activity Questionnaire tool. PMID:26361778

  10. Comparing Prescription Sales, Google Trends and CDC Data as Flu Activity Indicators

    Patwardhan, Avinash; Lorber, David

    2013-01-01

    activities data for influenza suggests that the former can serve as a good and valid influenza activity indicator. Community pharmacies with large footprints might want to proactively build automated syndromic surveillance systems with near real time reporting capabilities and explore the possibility of building predictive models (3) and of forming partnerships with public health agencies for syndromic surveillance. Pearson ’r’ between prescription sales data and Google Flu trends and CDC ILI data Prescription sales data and Year Pearson ‘r’ 95% CI (p = 0.05) Google Trends ILI data 2007 0.85 0.75–0.91 2008 0.92 0.86–0.95 2009 0.91 0.85–0.95 2010 0.88 0.80–0.93 2011 0.87 0.78–0.92 Aggregate (2007–2011) 0.92 0.90–0.94 CDC % unweighted ILI data 2007 0.97 0.95–0.98

  11. GFAP expression as an indicator of disease severity in mouse models of Alexander disease

    Albee Messing

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available AxD (Alexander disease is a rare disorder caused by heterozygous mutations in GFAP (glial fibrillary acidic protein resulting in accumulation of the GFAP protein and elevation of Gfap mRNA. To test whether GFAP itself can serve as a biomarker of disease status or progression, we investigated two independent measures of GFAP expression in AxD mouse models, one using a genetic reporter of promoter activity and the other quantifying GFAP protein directly in a manner that could also be employed in human studies. Using a transgenic reporter line that expresses firefly luciferase under the control of the murine Gfap promoter (Gfap-luc, we found that luciferase activity reflected the regional CNS (central nervous system variability of Gfap mRNA in Gfap+/+ mice, and increased in mice containing a point mutation in Gfap that mimics a common human mutation in AxD (R239H in the human sequence, and R236H in the murine sequence. In a second set of studies, we quantified GFAP protein in CSF (cerebrospinal fluid taken from three different AxD mouse models and littermate controls. GFAP levels in CSF were increased in all three AxD models, in a manner corresponding to the concentrations of GFAP in brain. These studies demonstrate that transactivation of the Gfap promoter is an early and sustained indicator of the disease process in the mouse. Furthermore, GFAP in CSF serves as a potential biomarker that is comparable between mouse models and human patients.

  12. Emphasis: an active management model

    The Institute of Nuclear Materials Management was founded and has grown on the basis of promoting professionalism in the nuclear industry. This paper is concerned with professional management of nuclear material. The paper introduces the reader to Emphasis, an active management model. The management model provides the framework to assist a manager in directing his available resources. Emphasis provides for establishing goals, identifying and selecting objectives, matching objectives to specific personnel, preparing and monitoring action plans, and evaluating results. The model stresses crisis prevention by systematically administering and controlling resources. A critical requirement for implementation of the model is the desire to manage, to be in charge of the situation. The nuclear industry does need managers - people who realize the sensitive nature of the industry, professionals who insist on improved performance

  13. Novel application of Wiener vis-à-vis Szeged indices: Antitubercular activities of quinolones

    Vijay K Agarwal; Shahnaz Bano; Keshav C Mathur; Padmakar V Khadikar

    2000-04-01

    The paper gives a brief account of the recently introduced Szeged index (Sz). Using this index antitubercular activities of N-2,4-difluorophenyl quinolones are subjected to quantitative structure-activity relationship analysis. The potential of Sz related to the Wiener index (W) is critically discussed. In addition, Huckel molecular orbital energies: HOMO, LUMO and total were also used for comparing and modelling antitubercular activities of the quinolones. The results, based on univariate as well as multivariate regressions, have shown that W, Sz and total give better results and that the correlations improve in multivariate regression analyses.

  14. Soil enzyme activities and their indication for fertility of urban forest soil

    2008-01-01

    To reveal the biological characteristics of urban forest soil and the effects of soil enzyme on soil fertility as well as the correlation between physicochemical properties and enzyme activities,44 urban forest soil profiles in Nanjing were investigated.Basic soil physicochemical properties and enzyme activities were analyzed in the laboratory.Hydrogen peroxidase,dehydrogenase,alkaline phosphatase,and cellulase were determined by potassium permanphosphate dinatrium colorimetry,and anthrone colorimetry,respectively.The result showed that soil pH,organic carbon (C),and total nitrogen (N) had great effects on hydrogen peroxidase,dehydrogenase,and alkaline phosphatase activities in 0-20 cm thick soil.However,pH only had great effect on hydrogen peroxidase,dehydrogenase,and alkaline phosphatase activities in 20-40 cm thick soil.Hydrogen peroxidase,dehydrogenase,and alkaline phosphatase were important biological indicators for the fertility of urban forest soil.Both in 0-20 cm and 20-40 cm soil,soil enzyme system (hydrogen peroxidase,dehydrogenase,alkaline phosphatase,and cellulase) had a close relationship with a combination of physicochemical indicators (pH,organic C,total N,available K,available P,cation exchange capacity (CEC),and microbial biomass carbon(Cmic)).The more soil enzyme activities there were,the higher the fertility of urban forest soil.

  15. Molecular Indicators Used in the Development of Predictive Models for Microbial Source Tracking ▿

    Ballesté, Elisenda; Bonjoch, Xavier; Belanche, Lluís A.; Blanch, Anicet R.

    2010-01-01

    A number of chemical, microbial, and eukaryotic indicators have been proposed as indicators of fecal pollution sources in water bodies. No single one of the indicators tested to date has been able to determine the source of fecal pollution in water. However, the combined use of different indicators has been demonstrated to be the best way of defining predictive models suitable for determining fecal pollution sources. Molecular methods are promising tools that could complement standard microbi...

  16. A new class of indicators for the model selection of scaling laws in nuclear fusion

    Highlights: ► A new model selection indicator, based on the Model Falsification Criterion, has been applied to the problem of choosing the scaling laws for power threshold scaling to access the H-mode in tokamaks. ► The indicators have at least the same selection power of the classic indicators for databases of low dimensionality. ► For the high dimensionality dataset the indicator outperforms the traditional criteria. ► The indicator preserves its advantages up to a noise of 20% of the signal level. -- Abstract: The development of computationally efficient model selection strategies represents an important problem facing the analysis of nuclear fusion experimental data, in particular in the field of scaling laws for the extrapolation to future machines, and image processing. In this paper, a new model selection indicator, named Model Falsification Criterion (MFC), will be presented and applied to the problem of choosing the most generalizable scaling laws for the power threshold (PThresh) to access the H-mode of confinement in tokamaks. The proposed indicator is based on the properties of the model residuals, their entropy and an implementation of the data falsification principle. The model selection ability of the proposed criterion will be demonstrated in comparison with the most widely used frequentist (Akaike information criterion) and bayesian (Bayesian information criterion) indicators

  17. Cysteine desulfurase activity indicates a role for NIFS in metallocluster biosynthesis.

    Zheng, L; White, R H; Cash, V L; Jack, R F; Dean, D R

    1993-01-01

    Biological nitrogen fixation is catalyzed by nitrogenase, a complex metalloenzyme composed of two separately purifiable component proteins encoded by the structural genes nifH, nifD, and nifK. Deletion of the Azotobacter vinelandii nifS gene lowers the activities of both nitrogenase component proteins. Because both nitrogenase component proteins have metallocluster prosthetic groups that are composed of iron- and sulfur-containing cores, this result indicated that the nifS gene product could ...

  18. Novel water-resistant UV-activated oxygen indicator for intelligent food packaging.

    Vu, Chau Hai Thai; Won, Keehoon

    2013-09-01

    For the first time, alginate polymer has been applied to prevent dyes from leaching out of colorimetric oxygen indicator films, which enable people to notice the presence of oxygen in the package in an economic and simple manner. The dye-based oxygen indicator film suffers from dye leaching upon contact with water. In this work, UV-activated visual oxygen indicator films were fabricated using thionine, glycerol, P25 TiO2, and zein as a redox dye, a sacrificial electron donor, UV-absorbing semiconducting photocatalyst, and an encapsulation polymer, respectively. When this zein-coated film was immersed in water for 24h, the dye leakage was as high as 80.80±0.45%. However, introduction of alginate (1.25%) as the coating polymer considerably diminished the dye leaching to only 5.80±0.06%. This is because the ion-binding ability of alginate could prevent the cation dye from leaching into water. This novel water-resistant UV-activated oxygen indicator was also successfully photo-bleached and regained colour fast in the presence of oxygen. PMID:23578614

  19. Synchronous fire activity in the tropical high Andes: an indication of regional climate forcing

    Roman-Cuesta, R.M.; Carmona-Moreno, C.; Lizcano, G.; New, M.; Silman, M.R.; Knoke, T.; Malhi, Y.; Oliveras Menor, I.; Asbjornsen, H.; Vuille, M.

    2014-01-01

    Global climate models suggest enhanced warming of the tropical mid and upper troposphere, with larger temperature rise rates at higher elevations. Changes in fire activity are amongst the most significant ecological consequences of rising temperatures and changing hydrological properties in mountain

  20. Hedonic Predicted House Price Indices Using Time-Varying Hedonic Models with Spatial Autocorrelation

    Alicia Rambaldi; Prasada Rao

    2011-01-01

    Hedonic housing price indices are computed from estimated hedonic pricing models. The commonly used time dummy hedonic model and the rolling window hedonic model fail to account for changing consumer preferences over hedonic characteristics and typically these models do not account for the presence of spatial correlation in prices reflecting the role of locational characteristics. This paper develops a class of models with time-varying hedonic coefficients and spatially correlated errors, pro...

  1. Variability of basin scale water resources indicators derived from global hydrological and land surface models

    Werner, Micha; Blyth, Eleanor; Schellekens, Jaap

    2016-04-01

    Global hydrological and land-surface models are becoming increasingly available, and as the resolution of these improves, as well how hydrological processes are represented, so does their potential. These offer consistent datasets at the global scale, which can be used to establish water balances and derive policy relevant indicators in medium to large basins, including those that are poorly gauged. However, differences in model structure, model parameterisation, and model forcing may result in quite different indicator values being derived, depending on the model used. In this paper we explore indicators developed using four land surface models (LSM) and five global hydrological models (GHM). Results from these models have been made available through the Earth2Observe project, a recent research initiative funded by the European Union 7th Research Framework. All models have a resolution of 0.5 arc degrees, and are forced using the same WATCH-ERA-Interim (WFDEI) meteorological re-analysis data at a daily time step for the 32 year period from 1979 to 2012. We explore three water resources indicators; an aridity index, a simplified water exploitation index; and an indicator that calculates the frequency of occurrence of root zone stress. We compare indicators derived over selected areas/basins in Europe, Colombia, Southern Africa, the Indian Subcontinent and Australia/New Zealand. The hydrological fluxes calculated show quite significant differences between the nine models, despite the common forcing dataset, with these differences reflected in the indicators subsequently derived. The results show that the variability between models is related to the different climates types, with that variability quite logically depending largely on the availability of water. Patterns are also found in the type of models that dominate different parts of the distribution of the indicator values, with LSM models providing lower values, and GHM models providing higher values in some

  2. Fecal calprotectin and ulcerative colitis endoscopic activity index as indicators of mucosal healing in ulcerative colitis.

    Taghvaei, Tarang; Maleki, Iradj; Nagshvar, Farshad; Fakheri, Hafez; Hosseini, Vahid; Valizadeh, Seyed Mohammad; Neishaboori, Hassan

    2015-04-01

    Ulcerative colitis (UC) is a chronic, idiopathic, inflammatory large bowel disease with recurrent variable periods of exacerbation. The aim of the current study is to evaluate the correlation of UCEIS with fecal calprotectin (FC) level to assess disease activity in UC patients in order to determine whether FC can prognosticate clinical outcome and disease activity of UC instead of colonoscopic evaluation. Our endoscopic investigations revealed the extension of UC as the following: proctitis (11.6%), procto-sigmoiditis (18.5%), left-sided colitis (15.8%), extensive colitis (11.7%), and normal endoscopy (42.4%). Conclusively, we suggest that FC can be used as a reliable tool to evaluate disease activity in ulcerative colitis patients. Moreover, our findings indicate a significant correlation between FC level and mucosal healing. PMID:25366383

  3. A comparison between the cardio-stress indices of an active and a sedentary population

    Peet Du Toit

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Our modern lifestyle often results in the importance of physical exercise being overlooked. The increasingly passive way of life has resulted in a notable increase in the prevalence of lifestyle disorders, such as hypertension and some forms of vascular pathology. This study compares the cardio-stress indices (CSIs of active and sedentary individuals to provide insight into the impact of the significant changes that have taken place in the modernised society. The active population consisted of 217 military recruits who had completed 20 weeks of basic military training. The sedentary population (n = 126 was sourced from a traditional tertiary institution where the focus is on attending lectures. Participants from both populations were required to attend three testing sessions, which were held during Week 1, Week 12 and Week 20. Subjects underwent a non-invasive ViportTM test to measure their CSI, heart rate and QRS duration. The results showed that although baseline readings for CSI, blood pressure (BP and heart rate (HR were initially higher among the active population, the commencement of the physical training programme resulted in a steady decline in respect of these three factors to approach healthier margins. However, the CSI for neither population reached the normal range, indicating that although physical activity reduces physiological stress levels, other key factors, namely lifestyle stress levels, must also be taken into account. The study supports the notion that increased physical activity has the potential to reduce the predisposition of an individual to cardiovascular disorders and contributes towards establishing the effect of training on heart health by using CSI as a means of measurement.

  4. Innovation indicators: a survey of innovative activities in the international food processed industry

    Vinicius Cardoso de Barros Fornari

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper seeks to combine traditional methods of measuring intensity with other alternative indicators to examine the dispersion of innovation activities in different industries and countries. The hypothesis that underlies the study lies in the fact that in the Food Processed Industry (IAP the traditional methods are insufficient to detect the core of the innovation process. As method, we analyzed patent data extracted from the twenty-five largest food processed companies in the world and suggested different indicators developed from the Pesquisa de Inovação Tecnológica (PINTEC, 2010 – for Brazilian companies – and the Community Innovation Survey (CIS, 2009 – for European Union companies. The results allowed us to establish relationships in three dimensions: (i the complexity of the innovative effort of the IAP; (ii the efforts to innovation in different countries are distinct and; (iii there is heterogeneity in country performance.

  5. Application of fit indices in testing the theoretical models in psychology: Possibilities and limitations

    Lazarević Ljiljana

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the fit indices used in Structural Equation Modelling (SEM for testing theoretical models and the difficulties that can occur during the testing of theoretical models in different fields of psychology. The paper discusses the basic assumptions of SEM and presents the indices used for assessing the fit of theoretical models. This paper also presents the procedures for calculating the basic statistic for assessing the fit of models (χ2, as well as for calculating the most commonly used fit indices, in order to gain a better insight into the advantages and potential difficulties that can occur during their usage. We mention the difficulties regarding the assessment of fit of the model based on χ2 and the discussed fit indices stemming from the sample size, data distribution and assessment methods, wrong specification of model and disturbance of normality and independence of latent variables, as well as the ways in which these difficulties can be overcome. This paper provides a proposal for the approach to presenting the fit indices in reports on studies where theoretical models were tested via SEM.

  6. Hard X-ray photon index as an indicator of bolometric correction in active galactic nuclei

    Zhou, Xin-Lin; Zhao, Yong-Heng

    2010-01-01

    We propose the rest-frame 2-10 keV photon index, \\ga, acting as an indicator of the bolometric correction, \\lb/$L_{\\rm 2-10keV}$ (where \\lb~ is the bolometric luminosity and $L_{\\rm 2-10keV}$ is the rest-frame 2-10 keV luminosity), in radio-quiet active galactic nuclei (AGNs). Correlations between \\ga~ and both bolometric correction and Eddington ratio are presented, based on simultaneous X-ray, UV, and optical observations of reverberation -mapped AGNs. These correlations can be compared wit...

  7. The Hertzsprung-gap giant 31 Comae in 2013: Magnetic field and activity indicators

    Borisova, Ana P.; Konstantinova-Antova, Renada; Aurière, Michel; Petit, Pascal; Charbonnel, Corinne

    2014-08-01

    We have observed the giant star 31 Comae in April and May 2013 with the spectropolarimeter Narval at Pic du Midi Observatory, France. 31 Comae is a single, rapidly rotating giant with rotational period ~6.8 d and vsini ~ 67 km/s. We present measurements and discuss variability of the longitudinal magnetic field (Bl), spectral activity indicators Hα, CaII H&K, Ca II IR triplet and evolutionary status. Our future aim is to perform a Zeeman-Doppler imaging study for the star.

  8. Evaluation of geochemical indicators for the genesis of core deposits by neutron activation analysis

    Neutron activation spectrometry has become an indispensable tool for geochemistry. As an example, its application in the investigation of the fractionation of rare-earth elements is reported. The Tb/Ca and Tb/Cl atomic ratios in Ca-minerals display whether they were formed as primary or secondary crystallizations under pegmatitic, hydrothermal or sedimentary conditions. In favourable cases even interactions of the core bearing solutions with country rocks can be recognized. Since fluorite and calcite often occur in paragenesis with other ore minerals they can be used as indicator minerals. Genetical informations derived for them can be applied to the ore deposit as a whole. (orig.)

  9. Geodynamic evolution of the Earth over the Phanerozoic:Plate tectonic activity and palaeoclimatic indicators

    Christian Vérard; Cyril Hochard; Peter O. Baumgartner; Gérard M. Stamplfi

    2015-01-01

    During the last decades, numerous local reconstructions based on ifeld geol-ogy were developed at the University of Lausanne (UNIL). Team members of the UNIL partici-pated in the elaboration of a 600 Ma to present global plate tectonic model deeply rooted in geological data, controlled by geometric and kinematic constraints and coherent with forces acting at plate boundaries. In this paper, we compare values derived from the tectonic model (ages of oceanic lfoor, production and subduction rates, tectonic activity) with a combination of chemical proxies (namely CO2, 87Sr/86Sr, glaciation evidence, and sea-level variations) known to be strongly in-lfuenced by tectonics. One of the outstanding results is the observation of an overall decreas-ing trend in the evolution of the global tectonic activity, mean oceanic ages and plate velocities over the whole Phanerozoic. We speculate that the decreasing trend relfects the global cooling of the Earth system. Additionally, the parallel between the tectonic activity and CO2 together with the extension of glaciations conifrms the generally accepted idea of a primary control of CO2 on climate and highlights the link between plate tectonics and CO2 in a time scale greater than 107 yr. Last, the wide variations observed in the reconstructed sea-lfoor production rates are in contradiction with the steady-state model hypothesized by some.

  10. A new class of indicators for the model selection of scaling laws in nuclear fusion

    Lupelli, I; Gaudio, P; Gelfusa, M; Mazon, D; Vega, J

    2013-01-01

    The development of computationally efficient model selection strategies represents an important problem facing the analysis of Nuclear Fusion experimental data, in particular in the field of scaling laws for the extrapolation to future machines, and image processing. In this paper, a new model selection indicator, named Model Falsification Criterion (MFC), will be presented and applied to the problem of choosing the most generalizable scaling laws for the power threshold to access the H-mode of confinement in Tokamaks. The proposed indicator is based on the properties of the model residuals, their entropy and an implementation of the data falsification principle. The model selection ability of the proposed criterion will be demonstrated in comparison with the most widely used frequentist (Akaike Information Criterion) and bayesian (Bayesian Information Criterion) indicators.

  11. Assessment of subclinical atherosclerosis in ankylosing spondylitis: correlations with disease activity indices

    F.M. Perrotta

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the study was to evaluate atherosclerosis in ankylosing spondylitis (AS through the assessment of morphological and functional measures of subclinical atherosclerosis. Twenty patients [M/F=12/8, age (median/range 43.5/28-69 years; disease duration (median/range 9.7/1-36 years] with AS classified according to modified New York criteria and twenty age and sex related healthy controls with negative past medical history for cardiovascular events were enrolled in the study. In all patients and controls, the intima-media thickness (IMT of common carotid artery, carotid bulb and internal carotid artery, and the flow-mediated dilatation (FMD of non-dominant arm brachial artery were determined, using a sonographic probe Esaote GPX (Genoa, Italy. Furthermore, we assess the main disease activity and disability indices [bath ankylosing spondylitis disease activity index, ankylosing spondylitis disease activity score-eritrosedimentation rate (ASDAS-ESR, ASDAS-C-reactive protein (CRP, bath ankylosing spondylitis metrology index, bath ankylosing spondylitis functional index and acute phase reactants. Plasmatic values of total cholesterol, low-density lipoprotein, high-density lipoprotein, triglyceride and homocysteine were carried out in all twenty patients. IMT at carotid bulb was significant higher in patients than in controls (0.67 mm vs 0.54 mm; P=0.03. FMD did not statistically differ between patients and controls (12.5% vs 15%; P>0.05. We found a correlation between IMT at carotid bulb and ESR (rho 0.43; P=0.04. No correlation was found between FMD and disease activity and disability indices. This study showed that in AS patients, without risk factors for cardiovascular disease, carotid bulb IMT, morphological index of subclinical atherosclerosis, is higher than in controls.

  12. Pollution evaluation in the Shahrood River: Do physico-chemical and macroinvertebrate-based indices indicate same responses to anthropogenic activities?

    Sharifinia, Moslem; Mahmoudifard, Abbas; Imanpour Namin, Javid; Ramezanpour, Zohreh; Yap, Chee Kong

    2016-09-01

    This study evaluates the impact of anthropogenic activities on the Shahrood River using water physico-chemical variables and macroinvertebrates data sets obtained over a period of 12 months between February 2012 and February 2013 at 8 sampling sites. Biotic indices i.e. FBI and BMWP based on macroinvertebrates and physico-chemical indices (MPI, HPI and NSF-WQI) were employed to evaluate the water quality status in connection with natural- and human-induced pressures. Based on physico-chemical indices, water quality was categorized as low polluted level and it is suitable for drinking purposes. The water quality based on biotic indices was related to the anthropic activities; a clear deterioration of the water quality was observed from upstream to downstream sites. The water quality along the river changed from very good (class I; reference sites) to good (class II; midstream sites) and turned into moderate (class III) and poor (class IV) quality (downstream sites). These findings indicate that biotic indices are more powerful indicators in assessing water quality than physico-chemical indices. Allocapnia, Glossosoma and Hesperoperla were exclusively related to least disturbed sites, and Naididae, Orthocladiinae and Ecdyonurus were found in sites showing notable degradation. Our results recommended that the use of macroinvertebrates could be employed as a cost-effective tool for biomonitoring and controlling of polluted riverine ecosystems in the Middle East. Finally, the results from this study may be useful not only for developing countries, but also for any organization struggling to use macroinvertebrate based indices with restricted financial resources and knowledge. PMID:27343865

  13. Combining docking and comparative molecular similarity indices analysis (COMSIA) to predict estrogen activity and probe molecular mechanisms of estrogen activity for estrogen compounds

    YANG XuShu; WANG XiaoDong; JI Li; LI Rong; SUN Cheng; WANG LianSheng

    2008-01-01

    Estrogen compounds are suspected of disrupting endocrine functions by mimicking natural hormones,and such compounds may pose a serious threat to the health of humans and wildlife. Close attention has been paid to the prediction and molecular mechanisms of estrogen activity for estrogen compounds. In this article, estrogen receptor a subtype (Era) -based comparative molecular similarity indices analysis (COMSIA) was performed on 44 estrogen compounds with structural diversity to find out the structural relationship with the activity and to predict the activity. The model with the significant correlation and the best predictive power (R2 = 0.965, (Q2LOO = 0.599, R2pred = 0.825) was achieved. The COMSIA and docking results revealed the structural features for estrogen activity and key amino acid residues in binding pocket, and provided an insight into the interaction between the ligands and these amino acid residues.

  14. Active Appearance Model Based Hand Gesture Recognition

    2005-01-01

    This paper addresses the application of hand gesture recognition in monocular image sequences using Active Appearance Model (AAM). For this work, the proposed algorithm is conposed of constructing AAMs and fitting the models to the interest region. In training stage, according to the manual labeled feature points, the relative AAM is constructed and the corresponding average feature is obtained. In recognition stage, the interesting hand gesture region is firstly segmented by skin and movement cues.Secondly, the models are fitted to the image that includes the hand gesture, and the relative features are extracted.Thirdly, the classification is done by comparing the extracted features and average features. 30 different gestures of Chinese sign language are applied for testing the effectiveness of the method. The Experimental results are given indicating good performance of the algorithm.

  15. Effects of Organized Physical Activity on Selected Health Indices among Women Older than 55 Years

    Piotr Zmijewski

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main aim of this study was to determine health benefits among women older than 55 years who participated in organized, group-based physical activity (OPA. Thirty-five women aged 65.0 ± 7.3 years volunteered for this study. The classical and nonclassical cardiovascular (CVD risk factors were measured before and after a 2-week OPA camp in a remote location and 3 months of OPA. Self-guided physical activity was analyzed 18 months after OPA. Two-week effects included significant decreases in body mass index, waist and hip circumferences, resting systolic and diastolic blood pressure (BP and resting heart rate, improved exercise capacity (EC, improved low-density lipoprotein and high-density lipoprotein (HDL-C, cholesterol, and other atherogenic lipid indices (ALI, and a reduction in 10-year estimated risk of death from CVD. Three-month effects included a further decrease in systolic BP, improvements in EC and HDL-C, and maintenance of lower levels of ALI, as well as lower CVD risk. The implementation of the OPA programme had a positive impact on somatic features, exercise capacity, biochemical indices, and risk for death from CVD. The presented programme can be regarded as an effective element of primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases among women older than 55 years.

  16. LEADING INDICATORS FOR REGIONAL COTTON RESPONSE: STRUCTURAL AND TIME SERIES MODELING RESULTS

    Stavriotis, Paul A.; Houston, Jack E.; McIntosh, Christopher S.; Turner, Steven C.

    1998-01-01

    Resurging southeastern cotton production compels better cotton acreage forecasts for planning seed, chemical, and other input requirements. Structural models describe leading acreage response indicators, and forecasts are compared time-series models. Cotton price, loan rate, deficiency payments, lagged corn acreage, the PIK program, and previous cotton yield significantly influence response.

  17. LEADING INDICATORS OF REGIONAL COTTON ACREAGE RESPONSE: STRUCTURAL AND TIME SERIES MODELING RESULTS

    Houston, Jack E.; McIntosh, Christopher S.; Stavriotis, Paul A.; Turner, Steven C.

    1999-01-01

    Resurgent cotton production compels better acreage forecasts for planning seed, chemical, and other input requirements. Structural models describe leading acreage response indicators, and forecasts are compared to time-series models. Cotton price, loan rate, deficiency payments, lagged corn acreage, the PIK program, and previous cotton yield significantly influence cotton acreage response.

  18. Teaching Quality Management Model for the Training of Innovation Ability and the Multilevel Decomposition Indicators

    Lu, Xingjiang; Yao, Chen; Zheng, Jianmin

    2013-01-01

    This paper focuses on the training of undergraduate students' innovation ability. On top of the theoretical framework of the Quality Function Deployment (QFD), we propose a teaching quality management model. Based on this model, we establish a multilevel decomposition indicator system, which integrates innovation ability characterized by four…

  19. Modelling of Activated Sludge Wastewater Treatment

    Kurtanjeka, Ž.

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Activated sludge wastewater treatment is a highly complex physical, chemical and biological process, and variations in wastewater flow rate and its composition, combined with time-varying reactions in a mixed culture of microorganisms, make this process non-linear and unsteady. The efficiency of the process is established by measuring the quantities that indicate quality of the treated wastewater, but they can only be determined at the end of the process, which is when the water has already been processed and is at the outlet of the plant and released into the environment.If the water quality is not acceptable, it is already too late for its improvement, which indicates the need for a feed forward process control based on a mathematical model. Since there is no possibility of retracing the process steps back, all the mistakes in the control of the process could induce an ecological disaster of a smaller or bigger extent. Therefore, models that describe this process well may be used as a basis for monitoring and optimal control of the process development. This work analyzes the process of biological treatment of wastewater in the Velika Gorica plant. Two empirical models for the description of the process were established, multiple linear regression model (MLR with 16 predictor variables and piecewise linear regression model (PLR with 17 predictor variables. These models were developed with the aim to predict COD value of the effluent wastewater at the outlet, after treatment. The development of the models is based on the statistical analysis of experimental data, which are used to determine the relations among individual variables. In this work are applied linear models based on multiple linear regression (MLR and partial least squares (PLR methods. The used data were obtained by everyday measurements of the quantities that indicate the quality of the input and output water, working conditions of the plant and the quality of the activated sludge

  20. A combined sensitivity analysis and kriging surrogate modeling for early validation of health indicators

    To increase the dependability of complex systems, one solution is to assess their state of health continuously through the monitoring of variables sensitive to potential degradation modes. When computed in an operating environment, these variables, known as health indicators, are subject to many uncertainties. Hence, the stochastic nature of health assessment combined with the lack of data in design stages makes it difficult to evaluate the efficiency of a health indicator before the system enters into service. This paper introduces a method for early validation of health indicators during the design stages of a system development process. This method uses physics-based modeling and uncertainties propagation to create simulated stochastic data. However, because of the large number of parameters defining the model and its computation duration, the necessary runtime for uncertainties propagation is prohibitive. Thus, kriging is used to obtain low computation time estimations of the model outputs. Moreover, sensitivity analysis techniques are performed upstream to determine the hierarchization of the model parameters and to reduce the dimension of the input space. The validation is based on three types of numerical key performance indicators corresponding to the detection, identification and prognostic processes. After having introduced and formalized the framework of uncertain systems modeling and the different performance metrics, the issues of sensitivity analysis and surrogate modeling are addressed. The method is subsequently applied to the validation of a set of health indicators for the monitoring of an aircraft engine’s pumping unit

  1. The Stacked Leading Indicators Dynamic Factor Model: A Sensitivity Analysis of Forecast Accuracy using Bootstrapping

    Daniel Grenouilleau

    2006-01-01

    The paper introduces an approximate dynamic factor model based on the extraction of principal components from a very large number of leading indicators stacked at various lags. The model is designed to produce short-term forecasts that are computed with the EM algorithm implemented with the first few eigenvectors ordered by descending eigenvalues. A cross-sectional bootstrap experiment is used to shed light on the sensitivity of the factor model to factor selection and to sampling uncertainty...

  2. Evaluating Model Fit for Growth Curve Models: Integration of Fit Indices from SEM and MLM Frameworks

    Wu, Wei; West, Stephen G.; Taylor, Aaron B.

    2009-01-01

    Evaluating overall model fit for growth curve models involves 3 challenging issues. (a) Three types of longitudinal data with different implications for model fit may be distinguished: balanced on time with complete data, balanced on time with data missing at random, and unbalanced on time. (b) Traditional work on fit from the structural equation…

  3. Spectral Bio-indicator Simulations for Tracking Photosynthetic Activities in a Corn Field

    Cheng, Yen-Ben; Middleton, Elizabeth M.; Huemmrich, K. Fred; Zhang, Qingyuan; Corp, Lawrence; Campbell, Petya; Kustas, William

    2011-01-01

    Accurate assessment of vegetation canopy optical properties plays a critical role in monitoring natural and managed ecosystems under environmental changes. In this context, radiative transfer (RT) models simulating vegetation canopy reflectance have been demonstrated to be a powerful tool for understanding and estimating spectral bio-indicators. In this study, two narrow band spectroradiometers were utilized to acquire observations over corn canopies for two summers. These in situ spectral data were then used to validate a two-layer Markov chain-based canopy reflectance model for simulating the Photochemical Reflectance Index (PRI), which has been widely used in recent vegetation photosynthetic light use efficiency (LUE) studies. The in situ PRI derived from narrow band hyperspectral reflectance exhibited clear responses to: 1) viewing geometry which affects the asset of light environment; and 2) seasonal variation corresponding to the growth stage. The RT model (ACRM) successfully simulated the responses to the variable viewing geometry. The best simulations were obtained when the model was set to run in the two layer mode using the sunlit leaves as the upper layer and shaded leaves as the lower layer. Simulated PRI values yielded much better correlations to in situ observations when the cornfield was dominated by green foliage during the early growth, vegetative and reproductive stages (r = 0.78 to 0.86) than in the later senescent stage (r = 0.65). Further sensitivity analyses were conducted to show the important influences of leaf area index (LAI) and the sunlit/shaded ratio on PRI observations.

  4. Development and validation of stability indicating UPLC assay method for ziprasidone active pharma ingredient

    Sonam Mittal

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Ziprasidone, a novel antipsychotic, exhibits a potent highly selective antagonistic activity on D2 and 5HT2A receptors. Literature survey for ziprasidone revealed several analytical methods based on different techniques but no UPLC method has been reported so far. Aim: Aim of this research paper is to present a simple and rapid stability indicating isocratic, ultra performance liquid chromatographic (UPLC method which was developed and validated for the determination of ziprasidone active pharmaceutical ingredient. Forced degradation studies of ziprasidone were studied under acid, base, oxidative hydrolysis, thermal stress and photo stress conditions. Materials and Methods: The quantitative determination of ziprasidone drug was performed on a Supelco analytical column (100×2.1 mm i.d., 2.7 ΅m with 10 mM ammonium acetate buffer (pH: 6.7 and acetonitrile (ACN as mobile phase with the ratio (55:45-Buffer:ACN at a flow rate of 0.35 ml/ min. For UPLC method, UV detection was made at 318 nm and the run time was 3 min. Developed UPLC method was validated as per ICH guidelines. Results and Conclusion: Mild degradation of the drug substance was observed during oxidative hydrolysis and considerable degradation observed during basic hydrolysis. During method validation, parameters such as precision, linearity, ruggedness, stability, robustness, and specificity were evaluated, which remained within acceptable limits. Developed UPLC method was successfully applied for evaluating assay of Ziprasidone active Pharma ingredient.

  5. Raised serum level of APRIL in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: correlations with disease activity indices.

    Hegazy, M; Darwish, H; Darweesh, H; El-Shehaby, A; Emad, Y

    2010-04-01

    The aim of the present study is to assess serum APRIL levels in SLE patients versus rheumatoid arthritis (RA) patients and normal control and to correlate serum APRIL levels in SLE patients with disease activity indices. Serum APRIL levels was measured in 40 SLE patients, 20 patients with RA and 20 healthy volunteers who served as control group. Disease activity in SLE patients was assessed by the British Isles Lupus Assessment Group (BILAG) index and SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI), and results were correlated with serum APRIL levels. Significantly higher serum APRIL levels was observed in SLE patients compared to RA patients and normal controls (p=0.003 and p < or = 0.001, respectively). Positive correlations were found between serum APRIL levels and total BILAG index (r=0.486 and p=0.001), BILAG musculoskeletal score (r=0.848 and p < or = 0.001) and BILAG cardiorespiratory score (r=0.326 and 0.04). Serum APRIL was higher in SLE patients compared to RA patients and normal control subjects and positively correlates with BILAG index and higher levels may be associated with musculoskeletal manifestations of the disease. APRIL antagonism could be a potential therapeutic target in SLE. PMID:20116334

  6. Prioritizing Public- Private Partnership Models for Public Hospitals of Iran Based on Performance Indicators

    Mohammad Asghari Jaafarabadi

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: The present study was conducted to scrutinize Public- Private Partnership (PPP models in public hospitals of different countries based on performance indicators in order to se-lect appropriated models for Iran hospitals.Methods: In this mixed (quantitative-qualitative study, systematic review and expert panel hasbeen done to identify varied models of PPP as well as performance indicators. In the second stepwe prioritized performance indicator and PPP models based on selected performance indicatorsby Analytical Hierarchy process (AHP technique. The data were analyzed by Excel 2007 andExpert Choice11 software’s.Results: In quality – effectiveness area, indicators like the rate of hospital infections(100%, hospital accidents prevalence rate (73%, pure rate of hospital mortality (63%, patientsatisfaction percentage (53%, in accessibility equity area indicators such as average inpatientwaiting time (100% and average outpatient waiting time (74%, and in financial – efficiency area,indicators including average length of stay (100%, bed occupation ratio (99%, specific incometo total cost ratio (97% have been chosen to be the most key performance indicators. In the prioritizationof the PPP models clinical outsourcing, management, privatization, BOO (build, own,operate and non-clinical outsourcing models, achieved high priority for various performance indicatorareas.Conclusion: This study had been provided the most common PPP options in the field of public hospitals and had gathered suitable evidences from experts for choosing appropriate PPP option for public hospitals. Effect of private sector presence in public hospital performance, based on which PPP options undertaken, will be different.

  7. Modelling spatiotemporal distribution patterns of earthworms in order to indicate hydrological soil processes

    Palm, Juliane; Klaus, Julian; van Schaik, Loes; Zehe, Erwin; Schröder, Boris

    2010-05-01

    Soils provide central ecosystem functions in recycling nutrients, detoxifying harmful chemicals as well as regulating microclimate and local hydrological processes. The internal regulation of these functions and therefore the development of healthy and fertile soils mainly depend on the functional diversity of plants and animals. Soil organisms drive essential processes such as litter decomposition, nutrient cycling, water dynamics, and soil structure formation. Disturbances by different soil management practices (e.g., soil tillage, fertilization, pesticide application) affect the distribution and abundance of soil organisms and hence influence regulating processes. The strong relationship between environmental conditions and soil organisms gives us the opportunity to link spatiotemporal distribution patterns of indicator species with the potential provision of essential soil processes on different scales. Earthworms are key organisms for soil function and affect, among other things, water dynamics and solute transport in soils. Through their burrowing activity, earthworms increase the number of macropores by building semi-permanent burrow systems. In the unsaturated zone, earthworm burrows act as preferential flow pathways and affect water infiltration, surface-, subsurface- and matrix flow as well as the transport of water and solutes into deeper soil layers. Thereby different ecological earthworm types have different importance. Deep burrowing anecic earthworm species (e.g., Lumbricus terrestris) affect the vertical flow and thus increase the risk of potential contamination of ground water with agrochemicals. In contrast, horizontal burrowing endogeic (e.g., Aporrectodea caliginosa) and epigeic species (e.g., Lumbricus rubellus) increase water conductivity and the diffuse distribution of water and solutes in the upper soil layers. The question which processes are more relevant is pivotal for soil management and risk assessment. Thus, finding relevant

  8. Estimating Inflows to Lake Okeechobee Using Climate Indices: A Machine Learning Modeling Approach

    Kalra, A.; Ahmad, S.

    2008-12-01

    The operation of regional water management systems that include lakes and storage reservoirs for flood control and water supply can be significantly improved by using climate indices. This research is focused on forecasting Lag 1 annual inflow to Lake Okeechobee, located in South Florida, using annual oceanic- atmospheric indices of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and El Nino-Southern Oscillations (ENSO). Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Least Square Support Vector Machine (LSSVM), belonging to the class of data driven models, are developed to forecast annual lake inflow using annual oceanic-atmospheric indices data from 1914 to 2003. The models were trained with 80 years of data and tested for 10 years of data. Based on Correlation Coefficient, Root Means Square Error, and Mean Absolute Error model predictions were in good agreement with measured inflow volumes. Sensitivity analysis, performed to evaluate the effect of individual and coupled oscillations, revealed a strong signal for AMO and ENSO indices compared to PDO and NAO indices for one year lead-time inflow forecast. Inflow predictions from the SVM models were better when compared with the predictions obtained from feed forward back propagation Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models.

  9. Diagnostic Accuracy of Anthropometric Indicators in the Prediction of Urinary Incontinence in Physically Active Older Women.

    Menezes, Enaiane Cristina; Virtuoso, Janeisa Franck; Capeletto, Eduardo; Silva, Lislayne Luiza da; Chagas, Jodelle Machado; Mazo, Giovana Zarpellon

    2016-08-01

    Purpose To determine the diagnostic accuracy and the cutoff point of the variables conicity index, waist to height ratio and fat percentage to detect urinary incontinence in physically active older women. Method A total of 152 women were analyzed. The instruments used were the International Physical Activity Questionnaire (IPAQ [Area 4]) to check the level of physical activity, and the Diagnostic Form to obtain sociodemographic data and presence of urinary incontinence. To calculate the conicity index, waist to height ratio and fat percentage, body mass, height and waist circumference were measured. Descriptive and inferential statistics were used. Cutoff points, sensitivity (S) and specificity (SP) were determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves. A 5% significance level was adopted. Results The prevalence of urinary incontinence was of 32.2%. The cutoff point with better sensitivity and specificity for the conicity index was 1.23 (S = 87.8; SP = 35.9); for the waist to height ratio, it was 0.57 (S = 79.6; SP = 45.6); and for the fat percentage, it was 39.71 (S = 89.8; SP = 42.7). The area under the ROC curve was 0.666 for the conicity index, 0.653 for the waist to height ratio, and 0.660 for the fat percentage. Conclusions The cutoff points for the anthropometric measurements conicity index, waist to height ratio and fat percentage indicate that these measures can be used to predict urinary incontinence in physically active older women. Furthermore, fat percentage seemed to be the best measure for this population. PMID:27571385

  10. Pharmacodynamic monitoring of immunosuppressive effects indicates reduced cyclosporine activity during telaprevir therapy.

    Roos, Katja; Gotthardt, Daniel; Giese, Thomas; Schnitzler, Paul; Stremmel, Wolfgang; Czock, David; Eisenbach, Christoph

    2014-09-01

    Drug interactions with immunosuppressive drugs are a major problem associated with protease inhibitor-based antiviral triple therapy for hepatitis C virus (HCV) reinfection after liver transplantation. In this retrospective cohort study, we analyzed biomarkers of the immunosuppressive effects of cyclosporine A (CSA) by quantifying nuclear factor of activated T cells (NFAT)-regulated gene expression during telaprevir (TVR) therapy in 5 liver transplant patients. Furthermore, dose adjustments and blood concentrations of CSA as well as the clinical course were analyzed. We observed a clear impact of TVR not only on doses and blood concentrations but also on the immunosuppressive effects of CSA. Despite apparently adequate CSA trough concentrations, the CSA peak concentration decreased to 68% (range = 44%-90%). This was associated with a 1.9-fold (1.6- to 4.1-fold) increase in the residual gene activity of NFAT-regulated genes, which indicated reduced immunosuppressive activity of CSA with TVR co-medication. The median dose of CSA was reduced to 25% (range = 16%-48%) and 31% (range = 22%-64%) after 1 and 2 weeks, respectively. The CSA drug clearance was reduced to 38.7% (range = 31.0%-49.4%). We report excellent antiviral efficacy. At the end of the observation period, all patients were HCV RNA-negative (1 patient at 18 weeks, 1 patient at 12 weeks, and 3 patients at 4 weeks after the end of therapy). Safety was acceptable, with mild acute rejection and reactivation of cytomegalovirus being the most serious adverse events. One patient with histologically proven recurrent cholestatic hepatitis before therapy underwent retransplantation during the course of antiviral therapy. In conclusion, the immunomonitoring of NFAT-regulated gene expression indicated reduced immunosuppressive activity of CSA during antiviral therapy with TVR in our cohort of liver transplant patients. Thus, the immunosuppressive effects of CSA may be overestimated if one is looking

  11. Patent value models: partial least squares path modelling with mode C and few indicators

    Martínez Ruiz, Alba

    2011-01-01

    Two general goals were raised in this thesis: First, to establish a PLS model for patent value and to investigate causality relationships among variables that determine the patent value; second, to investigate the performance of Partial Least Squares (PLS) Path Modelling with Mode C inthe context of patent value models. This thesis is organized in 10 chapters. Chapter 1 presents an introduction to the thesis that includes the objectives, research scope and the document’s structure. C...

  12. Forecast and restoration of geomagnetic activity indices by using the software-computational neural network complex

    Barkhatov, Nikolay; Revunov, Sergey

    2010-05-01

    It is known that currently used indices of geomagnetic activity to some extent reflect the physical processes occurring in the interaction of the perturbed solar wind with Earth's magnetosphere. Therefore, they are connected to each other and with the parameters of near-Earth space. The establishment of such nonlinear connections is interest. For such purposes when the physical problem is complex or has many parameters the technology of artificial neural networks is applied. Such approach for development of the automated forecast and restoration method of geomagnetic activity indices with the establishment of creative software-computational neural network complex is used. Each neural network experiments were carried out at this complex aims to search for a specific nonlinear relation between the analyzed indices and parameters. At the core of the algorithm work program a complex scheme of the functioning of artificial neural networks (ANN) of different types is contained: back propagation Elman network, feed forward network, fuzzy logic network and Kohonen layer classification network. Tools of the main window of the complex (the application) the settings used by neural networks allow you to change: the number of hidden layers, the number of neurons in the layer, the input and target data, the number of cycles of training. Process and the quality of training the ANN is a dynamic plot of changing training error. Plot of comparison of network response with the test sequence is result of the network training. The last-trained neural network with established nonlinear connection for repeated numerical experiments can be run. At the same time additional training is not executed and the previously trained network as a filter input parameters get through and output parameters with the test event are compared. At statement of the large number of different experiments provided the ability to run the program in a "batch" mode is stipulated. For this purpose the user a

  13. Associations between sleep duration, sedentary time, physical activity, and health indicators among Canadian children and youth using compositional analyses.

    Carson, Valerie; Tremblay, Mark S; Chaput, Jean-Philippe; Chastin, Sebastien F M

    2016-06-01

    The purpose of this study was to examine the relationships between movement behaviours (sleep duration, sedentary time, physical activity) and health indicators in a representative sample of children and youth using compositional analyses. Cross-sectional findings are based on 4169 children and youth (aged 6-17 years) from cycles 1 to 3 of the Canadian Health Measures Survey. Sedentary time (SB), light-intensity physical activity (LPA), and moderate- to vigorous-intensity physical activity (MVPA) were accelerometer-derived. Sleep duration was subjectively measured. Body mass index z scores, waist circumference, blood pressure, behavioural strengths and difficulties, and aerobic fitness were measured in the full sample. Triglycerides, high-density lipoprotein-cholesterol, C-reactive protein, and insulin were measured in a fasting subsample. The composition of movement behaviours was entered into linear regression models via an isometric log ratio transformation and was found to be associated with all health indicators (p aerobic fitness. Likewise, MVPA was also negatively associated with several cardiometabolic risk markers (p < 0.008). Compositional data analyses provide novel insights into collective health implications of 24-h movement behaviours and can facilitate interesting avenues for future investigations. PMID:27306435

  14. Genetically encoded calcium indicators for multi-color neural activity imaging and combination with optogenetics

    Jasper eAkerboom

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Genetically encoded calcium indicators (GECIs are powerful tools for systems neuroscience. Here we describe red, single-wavelength GECIs, RCaMPs, engineered from circular permutation of the thermostable red fluorescent protein mRuby. High-resolution crystal structures of mRuby, the red sensor RCaMP, and the recently published red GECI R-GECO1 give insight into the chromophore environments of the Ca2+-bound state of the sensors and the engineered protein domain interfaces of the different indicators. We characterized the biophysical properties and performance of RCaMP sensors in vitro and in vivo in Caenorhabditis elegans, Drosophila larvae, and larval zebrafish. Further, we demonstrate 2-color calcium imaging both within the same cell (registering mitochondrial and somatic [Ca2+] and between two populations of cells: neurons and astrocytes. Finally, we perform integrated optogenetics experiments, wherein neural activation via channelrhodopsin-2 (ChR2 or a red-shifted variant, and activity imaging via RCaMP or GCaMP, are conducted simultaneously, with the ChR2/RCaMP pair providing independently addressable spectral channels. Using this paradigm, we measure calcium responses of naturalistic and ChR2-evoked muscle contractions in vivo in crawling C. elegans. We systematically compare the RCaMP sensors to R-GECO1, in terms of action potential-evoked fluorescence increases in neurons, photobleaching, and photoswitching. R-GECO1 displays higher Ca2+ affinity and larger dynamic range than RCaMP, but exhibits significant photoactivation with blue and green light, suggesting that integrated channelrhodopsin-based optogenetics using R-GECO1 may be subject to artifact. Finally, we create and test blue, cyan and yellow variants engineered from GCaMP by rational design. This engineered set of chromatic variants facilitates new experiments in functional imaging and optogenetics.

  15. Sensitivity analysis of model output - a step towards robust safety indicators?

    Broed, R.; Pereira, A.; Moberg, L. [Stockholm Univ., Nuclear Physics Dept. (Sweden)

    2004-07-01

    The protection of the environment from ionising radiation challenges the radioecological community with the issue of harmonising disparate safety indicators. These indicators should preferably cover the whole spectrum of model predictions on chemo-toxic and radiation impact of contaminants. In question is not only the protection of man and biota but also of abiotic systems. In many cases modelling will constitute the basis for an evaluation of potential impact. It is recognised that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of model output will play an important role in the 'construction' of safety indicators that are robust, reliable and easy to explain to all groups of stakeholders including the general public. However, environmental models of transport of radionuclides have some extreme characteristics. They are, a) complex, b) non-linear, c) include a huge number of input parameters, d) input parameters are associated with large or very large uncertainties, e) parameters are often correlated to each other, f) uncertainties other than parameter-driven may be present in the modelling system, g) space variability and time-dependence of parameters are present, h) model predictions may cover geological time scales. Consequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are non-trivial tasks, challenging the decision-maker when it comes to the interpretation of safety indicators or the application of regulatory criteria. In this work we use the IAEA model ISAM, to make a set of Monte Carlo calculations. The ISAM model includes several nuclides and decay chains, many compartments and variable parameters covering the range of nuclide migration pathways from the near field to the biosphere. The goal of our calculations is to make a global sensitivity analysis. After extracting the non-influential parameters, the M.C. calculations are repeated with those parameters frozen. Reducing the number of parameters to a few ones will simplify the interpretation of the results

  16. Sensitivity analysis of model output - a step towards robust safety indicators?

    The protection of the environment from ionising radiation challenges the radioecological community with the issue of harmonising disparate safety indicators. These indicators should preferably cover the whole spectrum of model predictions on chemo-toxic and radiation impact of contaminants. In question is not only the protection of man and biota but also of abiotic systems. In many cases modelling will constitute the basis for an evaluation of potential impact. It is recognised that uncertainty and sensitivity analysis of model output will play an important role in the 'construction' of safety indicators that are robust, reliable and easy to explain to all groups of stakeholders including the general public. However, environmental models of transport of radionuclides have some extreme characteristics. They are, a) complex, b) non-linear, c) include a huge number of input parameters, d) input parameters are associated with large or very large uncertainties, e) parameters are often correlated to each other, f) uncertainties other than parameter-driven may be present in the modelling system, g) space variability and time-dependence of parameters are present, h) model predictions may cover geological time scales. Consequently, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis are non-trivial tasks, challenging the decision-maker when it comes to the interpretation of safety indicators or the application of regulatory criteria. In this work we use the IAEA model ISAM, to make a set of Monte Carlo calculations. The ISAM model includes several nuclides and decay chains, many compartments and variable parameters covering the range of nuclide migration pathways from the near field to the biosphere. The goal of our calculations is to make a global sensitivity analysis. After extracting the non-influential parameters, the M.C. calculations are repeated with those parameters frozen. Reducing the number of parameters to a few ones will simplify the interpretation of the results and the use

  17. Sustainable Tourism Indicators:Issues and Challenges in the Development of a Sustainable Tourism Management Model

    Griffin, Kevin

    2007-01-01

    While it is generally agreed that sustainability is the only long term path for tourism the question of how it should be measured (or attained) remains a challenge. Based on a 2 year EPA funded project this paper traces the development of indicators for sustainable tourism and discusses how they would be of considerable benefit to both government agencies and tourist interests, in the determination of management objectives for an area. It outlines a model of sustainable tourism indicators wh...

  18. Using stand-scale forest models for estimating indicators of sustainable forest management

    Mäkelä, Annikki; Rio, Miren del; Hynynen, Jari; Hawkins, Michael J.; Reyer, Christopher; Soares, Paula; Van Oijen, Marcel; Tomé, Margarida

    2012-01-01

    Criteria and indicators (C & I) to evaluate the sustainability of forest management have been proposed by the Ministerial Conference on the Protection of Forests in Europe. Although primarily defined at the national scale, these C & I also have implications at scales ranging from forest stands to the forest management unit. In this paper, we review existing forest growth and ecosystem models from the point of view of applicability to prediction of indicators of sustainable management, focusin...

  19. The Activity Analysis of Companies within Certain Economic Sectors Based on Risk Indicators

    Iustin Dalea

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The paper represents a topical subject in the economic-financial field and constitutes a particular interest to some specialists from the economic environment, because it presents a conscious and calculated assuming of the reality, evaluated equally in time and space. The practical research of this paper is materialized in a scientific approach that includes a number of 27 companies, divided equally in three economic sectors (production, construction and tourism, which has in view the obtainment of useful and perspective information, concerning the impact that risk indicators have on activities which underlie at each economic sector. The purpose of this research is developing and deepening the risk problematic, focusing on the role of relevant financial indicators, with which can be identified the optimal solutions of each analyzed company from the corresponding economic sector, allowing the formulation of some proposals and structure analysis that are intended to contribute to the development of knowledge in the domain studied. The paper itself is a matter of utmost importance, because it attempts to provide a comprehensive picture of the current stage in which the economic entities are found and responds to exigencies faced by managers in the current economic context.

  20. A participatory evaluation model for Healthier Communities: developing indicators for New Mexico.

    Wallerstein, N

    2000-01-01

    Participatory evaluation models that invite community coalitions to take an active role in developing evaluations of their programs are a natural fit with Healthy Communities initiatives. The author describes the development of a participatory evaluation model for New Mexico's Healthier Communities program. She describes evaluation principles, research questions, and baseline findings. The evaluation model shows the links between process, community-level system impacts, and population health ...

  1. Model based on diffuse logic for the construction of indicators of urban vulnerability in natural phenomena

    Upon considering the vulnerability of a urban system in a holistic way and taking into account some natural, technological and social factors, a model based upon a system of fuzzy logic, allowing to estimate the vulnerability of any system under natural phenomena potentially catastrophic is proposed. The model incorporates quantitative and qualitative variables in a dynamic system, in which variations in one of them have a positive or negative impact over the rest. An urban system model and an indicator model to determine the vulnerability due to natural phenomena were designed

  2. Vertical specialisation indicator based on supply-driven input-output model

    Meng, Bo; Yamano, Norihiko; Webb, Colin; 孟, 渤; 山野, 紀彦

    2010-01-01

    “Import content of exports”, based on Leontief’s demand-driven input-output model, has been widely used as an indicator to measure a country’s degree of participation in vertical specialisation trade. At a sectoral level, this indicator represents the share of inter-mediates imported by all sectors embodied in a given sector’s exported output. However, this indicator only reflects one aspect of vertical specialisation – the demand side. This paper discusses the possibility of using the input-...

  3. An Indicator of Research Front Activity: Measuring Intellectual Organization as Uncertainty Reduction in Document Sets

    Lucio-Arias, Diana

    2009-01-01

    When using scientific literature to model scholarly discourse, a research specialty can be operationalized as an evolving set of related documents. Each publication can be expected to contribute to the further development of the specialty at the research front. The specific combinations of title words and cited references in a paper can then be considered as a signature of the knowledge claim in the paper: new words and combinations of words can be expected to represent variation, while each paper is at the same time selectively positioned into the intellectual organization of a field using context-relevant references. Can the mutual information among these three dimensions--title words, cited references, and sequence numbers--be used as an indicator of the extent to which intellectual organization structures the uncertainty prevailing at a research front? The effect of the discovery of nanotubes (1991) on the previously existing field of fullerenes is used as a test case. Thereafter, this method is applied t...

  4. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.; Ten Brink, Ben; Fensholt, Rasmus

    2015-01-01

    increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration......Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in...... TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for...

  5. Trends in global vegetation activity and climatic drivers indicate a decoupled response to climate change

    Schut, Antonius G T; Ivits, Eva; Conijn, Jacob G.;

    2015-01-01

    an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration......Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010) derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty......-NPP) and TBWper biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land...

  6. Trends in Global Vegetation Activity and Climatic Drivers Indicate a Decoupled Response to Climate Change.

    Antonius G T Schut

    Full Text Available Detailed understanding of a possible decoupling between climatic drivers of plant productivity and the response of ecosystems vegetation is required. We compared trends in six NDVI metrics (1982-2010 derived from the GIMMS3g dataset with modelled biomass productivity and assessed uncertainty in trend estimates. Annual total biomass weight (TBW was calculated with the LINPAC model. Trends were determined using a simple linear regression, a Thiel-Sen medium slope and a piecewise regression (PWR with two segments. Values of NDVI metrics were related to Net Primary Production (MODIS-NPP and TBW per biome and land-use type. The simple linear and Thiel-Sen trends did not differ much whereas PWR increased the fraction of explained variation, depending on the NDVI metric considered. A positive trend in TBW indicating more favorable climatic conditions was found for 24% of pixels on land, and for 5% a negative trend. A decoupled trend, indicating positive TBW trends and monotonic negative or segmented and negative NDVI trends, was observed for 17-36% of all productive areas depending on the NDVI metric used. For only 1-2% of all pixels in productive areas, a diverging and greening trend was found despite a strong negative trend in TBW. The choice of NDVI metric used strongly affected outcomes on regional scales and differences in the fraction of explained variation in MODIS-NPP between biomes were large, and a combination of NDVI metrics is recommended for global studies. We have found an increasing difference between trends in climatic drivers and observed NDVI for large parts of the globe. Our findings suggest that future scenarios must consider impacts of constraints on plant growth such as extremes in weather and nutrient availability to predict changes in NPP and CO2 sequestration capacity.

  7. Socio-economic vulnerability to natural hazards - proposal for an indicator-based model

    Eidsvig, U.; McLean, A.; Vangelsten, B. V.; Kalsnes, B.; Ciurean, R. L.; Argyroudis, S.; Winter, M.; Corominas, J.; Mavrouli, O. C.; Fotopoulou, S.; Pitilakis, K.; Baills, A.; Malet, J. P.

    2012-04-01

    Vulnerability assessment, with respect to natural hazards, is a complex process that must consider multiple dimensions of vulnerability, including both physical and social factors. Physical vulnerability refers to conditions of physical assets, and may be modeled by the intensity and magnitude of the hazard, the degree of physical protection provided by the natural and built environment, and the physical robustness of the exposed elements. Social vulnerability refers to the underlying factors leading to the inability of people, organizations, and societies to withstand impacts from the natural hazards. Social vulnerability models can be used in combination with physical vulnerability models to estimate both direct losses, i.e. losses that occur during and immediately after the impact, as well as indirect losses, i.e. long-term effects of the event. Direct impact of a landslide typically includes casualties and damages to buildings and infrastructure while indirect losses may e.g. include business closures or limitations in public services. The direct losses are often assessed using physical vulnerability indicators (e.g. construction material, height of buildings), while indirect losses are mainly assessed using social indicators (e.g. economical resources, demographic conditions). Within the EC-FP7 SafeLand research project, an indicator-based method was proposed to assess relative socio-economic vulnerability to landslides. The indicators represent the underlying factors which influence a community's ability to prepare for, deal with, and recover from the damage associated with landslides. The proposed model includes indicators representing demographic, economic and social characteristics as well as indicators representing the degree of preparedness and recovery capacity. Although the model focuses primarily on the indirect losses, it could easily be extended to include more physical indicators which account for the direct losses. Each indicator is individually

  8. Modelling indicators of water security, water pollution and aquatic biodiversity in Europe

    Dumont, Egon; Williams, Richard; Keller, Virginie; Voss, Anja; Tattari, Sirkka

    2012-01-01

    The GWAVA (Global Water AVailability Assessment) model for indicating human water security has been extended with a newly developed module for calculating pollutant concentrations. This module is first described and then illustrated by being used to model nitrogen, phosphorus and organic matter concentrations. The module uses solely input variables that are likely to be available for future scenarios, making it possible to apply the module to such scenarios. The module first calculates pollut...

  9. The Antioxidant Activity and the Effects of Convolvulus Aucheri (Convolvulaceae Extract on Biochemical Indices in Rats

    R. MAMMADOV

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Convolvulus L., the second largest genus of the family Convolvulaceae, has about 250 species distributed mainly in the temperate and tropical regions of the world, with a cosmopolitan distribution. According to recent studies, this genus is represented in Turkey by 33 species, 9 of which are endemic. Convolvulus species are extensively used in traditional medicine for various purposes as in ulcer treatment, diabetes, and tension. The aim of this study was to investigate the antioxidant activity and the effects of Convolvulus aucheri extract on biochemical indices in rats.The antioxidant activities of various solvent extracts (methanol, ethanol, acetone and benzene obtained from C. aucheri were evaluated by using 2,2-diphenyl-1-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH and β-carotene-linoleic acid assays. In addition, total phenolic contents in all the extracts of C. aucheri were determined as gallic acid equivalents. As for the biochemical assay, the extracts of the plant at the concentrations of 0.5 and 1 ml/100 g body weight/day were administered orally to the experimental groups for 36 days. Blood samples were taken by cardiac venipuncture on the 2nd and 4th weeks after the initial treatment. Aspartate aminotransferase (AST, alanine aminotransferase (ALT, gamma-glutamyltransferase (GGT and blood urea nitrogen (BUN were measured for the determination of liver function.Among all the extracts, the ethanolic extracts of C. aucheri showed the highest antioxidant activity (66.88 ± 0.8%. The highest free radical scavenging activity (59.50 ± 1.2% was recorded on the ethanolic extracts. The phenolic contents of the ethanolic extracts are higher than the other types of extracts (23.03 mg/g GAE. In biochemical assay, it was found a significant increase in the levels of serum ALT, AST and decrease the serum GGT levels in the experimental groups when compared to the controls (p<0.05. On the other hand, we found significant increase in the level of BUN.

  10. Modeling drought impact occurrence based on meteorological drought indices in Europe

    Stagge, James H.; Kohn, Irene; Tallaksen, Lena M.; Stahl, Kerstin

    2015-11-01

    There is a vital need for research that links meteorological drought indices with drought impacts felt on the ground. Previously, this link has been estimated based on experience or defined based on very narrow impact measures. This study expands on earlier work by showing the feasibility of relating user-provided impact reports with meteorological drought indices, the Standardized Precipitation Index and the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index, through logistic regression, while controlling for seasonal and interannual effects. Analysis includes four impact types, spanning agriculture, energy and industry, public water supply, and freshwater ecosystem across five European countries. Statistically significant climate indices are retained as predictors using step-wise regression and used to compare the most relevant drought indices and accumulation periods across different impact types and regions. Agricultural impacts are explained by 2-12 month anomalies, though anomalies greater than 3 months are likely related to agricultural management practices. Energy and industrial impacts, typically related to hydropower and energy cooling water, respond slower (6-12 months). Public water supply and freshwater ecosystem impacts are explained by a more complex combination of short (1-3 month) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. The resulting drought impact models have both good model fit (pseudo-R2 = 0.225-0.716) and predictive ability, highlighting the feasibility of using such models to predict drought impact likelihood based on meteorological drought indices.

  11. Artificial neural network model for prediction of safety performance indicators goals in nuclear plants

    Souto, Kelling C.; Nunes, Wallace W. [Instituto Federal de Educacao, Ciencia e Tecnologia do Rio de Janeiro, Nilopolis, RJ (Brazil). Lab. de Aplicacoes Computacionais; Machado, Marcelo D., E-mail: dornemd@eletronuclear.gov.b [ELETROBRAS Termonuclear S.A. (ELETRONUCLEAR), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Gerencia de Combustivel Nuclear - GCN.T

    2011-07-01

    Safety performance indicators have been developed to provide a quantitative indication of the performance and safety in various industry sectors. These indexes can provide assess to aspects ranging from production, design, and human performance up to management issues in accordance with policy, objectives and goals of the company. The use of safety performance indicators in nuclear power plants around the world is a reality. However, it is necessary to periodically set goal values. Such goals are targets relating to each of the indicators to be achieved by the plant over a predetermined period of operation. The current process of defining these goals is carried out by experts in a subjective way, based on actual data from the plant, and comparison with global indices. Artificial neural networks are computational techniques that present a mathematical model inspired by the neural structure of intelligent organisms that acquire knowledge through experience. This paper proposes an artificial neural network model aimed at predicting values of goals to be used in the evaluation of safety performance indicators for nuclear power plants. (author)

  12. Temporal Synchronization Analysis for Improving Regression Modeling of Fecal Indicator Bacteria Levels

    Multiple linear regression models are often used to predict levels of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) in recreational swimming waters based on independent variables (IVs) such as meteorologic, hydrodynamic, and water-quality measures. The IVs used for these analyses are traditiona...

  13. Global Convergence of the EM Algorithm for Unconstrained Latent Variable Models with Categorical Indicators

    Weissman, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    Convergence of the expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm to a global optimum of the marginal log likelihood function for unconstrained latent variable models with categorical indicators is presented. The sufficient conditions under which global convergence of the EM algorithm is attainable are provided in an information-theoretic context by…

  14. Spectral Color Indices Based Geospatial Modeling of Soil Organic Matter in Chitwan District, Nepal

    Mandal, Umesh K.

    2016-06-01

    Space Technology provides a resourceful-cost effective means to assess soil nutrients essential for soil management plan. Soil organic matter (SOM) is one of valuable controlling productivity of crops by providing nutrient in farming systems. Geospatial modeling of soil organic matter is essential if there is unavailability of soil test laboratories and its strong spatial correlation. In the present analysis, soil organic matter is modeled from satellite image derived spectral color indices. Brightness Index (BI), Coloration Index (CI), Hue Index (HI), Redness Index (RI) and Saturation Index (SI) were calculated by converting DN value to radiance and radiance to reflectance from Thematic Mapper image. Geospatial model was developed by regressing SOM with color indices and producing multiple regression model using stepwise regression technique. The multiple regression equation between SOM and spectral indices was significant with R = 0. 56 at 95% confidence level. The resulting MLR equation was then used for the spatial prediction for the entire study area. Redness Index was found higher significance in estimating the SOM. It was used to predict SOM as auxiliary variables using cokringing spatial interpolation technique. It was tested in seven VDCs of Chitwan district of Nepal using Thematic Mapper remotely sensed data. SOM was found to be measured ranging from 0.15% to 4.75 %, with a mean of 2.24 %. Remotely sensed data derived spectral color indices have the potential as useful auxiliary variables for estimating SOM content to generate soil fertility management plans.

  15. Rainfall-induced fecal indicator organisms transport from animal waste applied fields: model sensitivity analysis

    The microbial quality of surface waters warrants attention because of associated food- and waterborne-disease outbreaks, and fecal indicator organisms (FIOs) are commonly used to evaluate levels of microbial pollution. Models that predict the fate and transport of FIOs are required for designing and...

  16. A Generalized Model for Electrical Power Distribution Feeders’ Contributions to System Reliability Indices

    Ganiyu A. Ajenikoko

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliability indices are parametric quantities used to assess the performance levels of electrical power distribution systems. In this work, a generalized quadratic model is developed for electrical power distribution system contributions to system reliability indices using Ikeja, Port-Harcourt, Kaduna and Kano distribution system feeders as case studies. The mean System Average Interruption Duration Index (SAIDI, System Average Interruption Frequency Index (SAIFI and Customer Average Interruption Duration Index (CAIDI contributions to system reliability indices for Ikeja, Port-Harcourt, Kaduna and Kano distribution systems were 0.0033, 0.0026, 0.0033 and 0.0018 respectively due to the fact that a prolonged period of interruptions was recorded on most of the feeders attached to Port-Harcourt and Kano distribution systems making them to be less reliable compared to Ikeja and Kaduna distribution systems. The generalized Quadratic model forms a basis for a good design, planning and maintenance of distribution systems at large.

  17. Economic performance indicators of wind energy based on wind speed stochastic modeling

    Highlights: • We propose a new and different wind energy production indicator. • We compute financial profitability of potential wind power sites. • The wind speed process is modeled as an indexed semi-Markov chain. • We check if the wind energy is a good investment with and without incentives. - Abstract: We propose the computation of different wind energy production indicators and financial profitability of potential wind power sites. The computation is performed by modeling the wind speed process as an indexed semi-Markov chain to predict and simulate the wind speed dynamics. We demonstrate that the indexed semi-Markov chain approach enables reproducing the indicators calculated on real data. Two different time horizons of 15 and 30 years are analyzed. In the first case we consider the government incentives on the energy price now present in Italy, while in the second case the incentives have not been taken into account

  18. Screening for gestational diabetes mellitus by a model based on risk indicators

    Jensen, Dorte Møller; Mølsted-Pedersen, Lars; Beck-Nielsen, Henning;

    2003-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: This study was performed to prospectively evaluate a screening model for gestational diabetes mellitus on the basis of clinical risk indicators. STUDY DESIGN: In a prospective multicenter study with 5235 consecutive pregnant women, diagnostic testing with a 2-hour 75-g oral glucose...... results from tested women to the whole group in question, a 2.4% prevalence of gestational diabetes mellitus was calculated. Sensitivity and specificity of the model was 80.6 (73.7-87.6) and 64.8 (63.5-66.1), respectively (95% CIs). CONCLUSION: Under ideal conditions, sensitivity of the model was...

  19. Short-term Indicator Models for Quarterly GDP Growth in the BRIICS: A Small-scale Bridge Model Approach

    Thomas Chalaux; Cyrille Schwellnus

    2014-01-01

    This paper extends the OECD Economics Department’s suite of short-term indicator models for quarterly GDP growth, which currently cover only the G7 countries, to the BRIICS countries. Reflecting the relative scarcity of high-quality macroeconomic time series, the paper adopts a small-scale bridge model approach. The results suggest that in terms of short-term forecast accuracy for the first and second quarter following the most recent GDP release these models outperform simple autoregressive ...

  20. Using species abundance distribution models and diversity indices for biogeographical analyses

    Fattorini, Simone; Rigal, François; Cardoso, Pedro; Borges, Paulo A. V.

    2016-01-01

    We examine whether Species Abundance Distribution models (SADs) and diversity indices can describe how species colonization status influences species community assembly on oceanic islands. Our hypothesis is that, because of the lack of source-sink dynamics at the archipelago scale, Single Island Endemics (SIEs), i.e. endemic species restricted to only one island, should be represented by few rare species and consequently have abundance patterns that differ from those of more widespread species. To test our hypothesis, we used arthropod data from the Azorean archipelago (North Atlantic). We divided the species into three colonization categories: SIEs, archipelagic endemics (AZEs, present in at least two islands) and native non-endemics (NATs). For each category, we modelled rank-abundance plots using both the geometric series and the Gambin model, a measure of distributional amplitude. We also calculated Shannon entropy and Buzas and Gibson's evenness. We show that the slopes of the regression lines modelling SADs were significantly higher for SIEs, which indicates a relative predominance of a few highly abundant species and a lack of rare species, which also depresses diversity indices. This may be a consequence of two factors: (i) some forest specialist SIEs may be at advantage over other, less adapted species; (ii) the entire populations of SIEs are by definition concentrated on a single island, without possibility for inter-island source-sink dynamics; hence all populations must have a minimum number of individuals to survive natural, often unpredictable, fluctuations. These findings are supported by higher values of the α parameter of the Gambin mode for SIEs. In contrast, AZEs and NATs had lower regression slopes, lower α but higher diversity indices, resulting from their widespread distribution over several islands. We conclude that these differences in the SAD models and diversity indices demonstrate that the study of these metrics is useful for

  1. Comparison of several climate indices as inputs in modelling of the Baltic Sea runoff

    Hanninen, J.; Vuorinen, I. [Turku Univ. (Finland). Archipelaco Research Inst.], e-mail: jari.hanninen@utu.fi

    2012-11-01

    Using Transfer function (TF) models, we have earlier presented a chain of events between changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and their oceanographical and ecological consequences in the Baltic Sea. Here we tested whether other climate indices as inputs would improve TF models, and our understanding of the Baltic Sea ecosystem. Besides NAO, the predictors were the Arctic Oscillation (AO), sea-level air pressures at Iceland (SLP), and wind speeds at Hoburg (Gotland). All indices produced good TF models when the total riverine runoff to the Baltic Sea was used as a modelling basis. AO was not applicable in all study areas, showing a delay of about half a year between climate and runoff events, connected with freezing and melting time of ice and snow in the northern catchment area of the Baltic Sea. NAO appeared to be most useful modelling tool as its area of applicability was the widest of the tested indices, and the time lag between climate and runoff events was the shortest. SLP and Hoburg wind speeds showed largely same results as NAO, but with smaller areal applicability. Thus AO and NAO were both mostly contributing to the general understanding of climate control of runoff events in the Baltic Sea ecosystem. (orig.)

  2. Review and Extension of Suitability Assessment Indicators of Weather Model Output for Analyzing Decentralized Energy Systems

    Hans Schermeyer

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Electricity from renewable energy sources (RES-E is gaining more and more influence in traditional energy and electricity markets in Europe and around the world. When modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution, energy systems analysts frequently use data generated by numerical weather models as input since there is no spatial inclusive and comprehensive measurement data available. However, the suitability of such model data depends on the research questions at hand and should be inspected individually. This paper focuses on new methodologies to carry out a performance evaluation of solar irradiation data provided by a numerical weather model when investigating photovoltaic feed-in and effects on the electricity grid. Suitable approaches of time series analysis are researched from literature and applied to both model and measurement data. The findings and limits of these approaches are illustrated and a new set of validation indicators is presented. These novel indicators complement the assessment by measuring relevant key figures in energy systems analysis: e.g., gradients in energy supply, maximum values and volatility. Thus, the results of this paper contribute to the scientific community of energy systems analysts and researchers who aim at modeling RES-E feed-in on a high temporal and spatial resolution using weather model data.

  3. Fluconazole Binding and Sterol Demethylation in Three CYP51 Isoforms Indicate Differences in Active Site Topology

    Bellamine, A.; Lepesheva, Galina I.; Waterman, Mike (Vanderbilt)

    2010-11-16

    14{alpha}-Demethylase (CYP51) is a key enzyme in all sterol biosynthetic pathways (animals, fungi, plants, protists, and some bacteria), catalyzing the removal of the C-14 methyl group following cyclization of squalene. Based on mutations found in CYP51 genes from Candida albicans azole-resistant isolates obtained after fluconazole treatment of fungal infections, and using site-directed mutagenesis, we have found that fluconazole binding and substrate metabolism vary among three different CYP51 isoforms: human, fungal, and mycobacterial. In C. albicans, the Y132H mutant from isolates shows no effect on fluconazole binding, whereas the F145L mutant results in a 5-fold increase in its IC{sub 50} for fluconazole, suggesting that F145 (conserved only in fungal 14{alpha}-demethylases) interacts with this azole. In C. albicans, F145L accounts, in part, for the difference in fluconazole sensitivity reported between mammals and fungi, providing a basis for treatment of fungal infections. The C. albicans Y132H and human Y145H CYP51 mutants show essentially no effect on substrate metabolism, but the Mycobacterium tuberculosis F89H CYP51 mutant loses both its substrate binding and metabolism. Because these three residues align in the three isoforms, the results indicate that their active sites contain important structural differences, and further emphasize that fluconazole and substrate binding are uncoupled properties.

  4. Passive acoustic monitoring of human physiology during activity indicates health and performance of soldiers and firefighters

    Scanlon, Michael V.

    2003-04-01

    The Army Research Laboratory has developed a unique gel-coupled acoustic physiological monitoring sensor that has acoustic impedance properties similar to the skin. This facilitates the transmission of body sounds into the sensor pad, yet significantly repels ambient airborne noises due to an impedance mismatch. The sensor's sensitivity and bandwidth produce excellent signatures for detection and spectral analysis of diverse physiological events. Acoustic signal processing detects heartbeats, breaths, wheezes, coughs, blood pressure, activity, motion, and voice for communication and automatic speech recognition. The health and performance of soldiers, firefighters, and other first responders in strenuous and hazardous environments can be continuously and remotely monitored with body-worn acoustic sensors. Comfortable acoustic sensors can be in a helmet or in a strap around the neck, chest, and wrist. Noise-canceling sensor arrays help remove out-of-phase motion noise and enhance covariant physiology by using two acoustic sensors on the front sides of the neck and two additional acoustic sensors on each wrist. Pulse wave transit time between neck and wrist acoustic sensors will indicate systolic blood pressure. Larger torso-sized arrays can be used to acoustically inspect the lungs and heart, or built into beds for sleep monitoring. Acoustics is an excellent input for sensor fusion.

  5. A Statistical Analysis of Solar Surface Indices Through the Solar Activity Cycles 21-23

    Goker, Umit Deniz; Nutku, Ferhat; Priyal, Muthu

    2016-01-01

    Variations of total solar irradiance (TSI), magnetic field, Ca II K-flux, faculae and plage areas due to the number and the type of sunspots/sunspot groups (SGs) are well established by using ground based data from various centers such as Solar Irradiance Platform, Stanford Data (SFO), Kodaikanal data (KKL) and National Geographical Data Center (NGDC) Homepage, respectively. We applied time series analysis for extracting the data over the descending phases of solar activity cycles (SACs) 21, 22 and 23, and the ascending phases 22 and 23 of SACs, and analyzed the selected data using the Python programming language. Our detailed analysis results suggest that there is a stronger correlation between solar surface indices and the changes in the relative portion of the small and large SGs. This somewhat unexpected finding suggest that plage regions decreased in a lower values in spite of the higher number of large SGs in SAC 23 while Ca II K-flux did not decrease by large amount or it was comparable with SAC 22 for...

  6. In situ hydrogen consumption kinetics as an indicator of subsurface microbial activity

    Harris, S.H.; Smith, R.L.; Suflita, J.M.

    2007-01-01

    There are few methods available for broadly assessing microbial community metabolism directly within a groundwater environment. In this study, hydrogen consumption rates were estimated from in situ injection/withdrawal tests conducted in two geochemically varying, contaminated aquifers as an approach towards developing such a method. The hydrogen consumption first-order rates varied from 0.002 nM h-1 for an uncontaminated, aerobic site to 2.5 nM h-1 for a contaminated site where sulfate reduction was a predominant process. The method could accommodate the over three orders of magnitude range in rates that existed between subsurface sites. In a denitrifying zone, the hydrogen consumption rate (0.02 nM h-1) was immediately abolished in the presence of air or an antibiotic mixture, suggesting that such measurements may also be sensitive to the effects of environmental perturbations on field microbial activities. Comparable laboratory determinations with sediment slurries exhibited hydrogen consumption kinetics that differed substantially from the field estimates. Because anaerobic degradation of organic matter relies on the rapid consumption of hydrogen and subsequent maintenance at low levels, such in situ measures of hydrogen turnover can serve as a key indicator of the functioning of microbial food webs and may be more reliable than laboratory determinations. ?? 2007 Federation of European Microbiological Societies.

  7. Effect of sire on mu- and m-calpain activity and rate of tenderization as indicated by myofibril fragmentation indices of steaks from Brahman cattle.

    Riley, D G; Chase, C C; Pringle, T D; West, R L; Johnson, D D; Olson, T A; Hammond, A C; Coleman, S W

    2003-10-01

    The objectives of this study were to assess the influence of sire on mu- and m-calpain activities, to evaluate the relationships of activities of these enzymes to other traits related to beef palatability, and to assess the influence of sire on the rate of tenderization (as measured by myofibril fragmentation index [MFI]) in Brahman longissimus muscle. Brahman calves (n = 87), sired by nine bulls, were born, weaned, fed, and slaughtered in central Florida. Traits evaluated were mu- and m-calpain activities and MFI after 1, 7, 14, and 21 d of aging. Other traits were analyzed to determine their associations with mu- and m-calpain activity and MFI, including calpastatin activity, percentage of raw and cooked lipids, Warner-Bratzler shear force (WBSF) values after 7, 14, and 21 d of aging, and sensory panel rating of tenderness, juiciness, and connective tissue amount after 14 d of aging. Data were analyzed using a model with sire, sex, year, and slaughter group (calves of the same sex slaughtered on the same date) as fixed effects, and adjusted to a constant adjusted 12th-rib fat thickness. Sire affected mu-calpain activity (P carcass sorting program represents an alternative consideration for tenderization improvement programs. PMID:14552370

  8. An Active Learning Exercise for Introducing Agent-Based Modeling

    Pinder, Jonathan P.

    2013-01-01

    Recent developments in agent-based modeling as a method of systems analysis and optimization indicate that students in business analytics need an introduction to the terminology, concepts, and framework of agent-based modeling. This article presents an active learning exercise for MBA students in business analytics that demonstrates agent-based…

  9. Mathematical and Economic Modeling of the Results of Correlation Between Indicators of Profitability and Asset Management

    Silviu CÂRSTINA

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Activity companies, regardless of sector, aims to both keep a favorable position in the market and creating financial resources to respond favorably people interact undertaking. These considerations are actually provided by the existence and sustainability of any business activity. Through this paper we follow not only the level of profitability of businesses related to food industry sector in Dolj, Romania, but also the correlation between the indicators of profitability and management of assets. The period of analysis is given by the range of 2012 - 2013, and of data analysis in terms of economic and mathematical being done using SPSS statistical and mathematical software.

  10. An Integrated Model Based on a Hierarchical Indices System for Monitoring and Evaluating Urban Sustainability

    Xulin Guo

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available Over 50% of world’s population presently resides in cities, and this number is expected to rise to ~70% by 2050. Increasing urbanization problems including population growth, urban sprawl, land use change, unemployment, and environmental degradation, have markedly impacted urban residents’ Quality of Life (QOL. Therefore, urban sustainability and its measurement have gained increasing attention from administrators, urban planners, and scientific communities throughout the world with respect to improving urban development and human well-being. The widely accepted definition of urban sustainability emphasizes the balancing development of three primary domains (urban economy, society, and environment. This article attempts to improve the aforementioned definition of urban sustainability by incorporating a human well-being dimension. Major problems identified in existing urban sustainability indicator (USI models include a weak integration of potential indicators, poor measurement and quantification, and insufficient spatial-temporal analysis. To tackle these challenges an integrated USI model based on a hierarchical indices system was established for monitoring and evaluating urban sustainability. This model can be performed by quantifying indicators using both traditional statistical approaches and advanced geomatic techniques based on satellite imagery and census data, which aims to provide a theoretical basis for a comprehensive assessment of urban sustainability from a spatial-temporal perspective.

  11. Modeling Recent Subsidence of Mars' Olympus Mons Using Lava Flows as Paleo-Slope Indicators

    Simpson, M.; Reeves, A.; Chadwick, J.; McGovern, P. J.

    2013-12-01

    Olympus Mons is an enormous volcanic edifice on Mars with a basal diameter over 600 km and a height of 23 km. In spite of this size, no indications of subsidence, such as an obvious topographic moat, have previously been detected around the volcano. In this study, we mapped the orientations of long, thin lava flows on the plains to the south and southeast of Olympus Mons using 100m-resolution imagery from the Thermal Emission Imaging System (THEMIS) on Mars Odyssey, and topography using Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA) data from Mars Global Surveyor. The results show that the flows are no longer oriented in a downhill direction, consistently deviating from modern slope vectors in a counterclockwise direction by 21.4 × 10.8 degrees (n = 65). The configuration of this misalignment between modern and paleo-topography is consistent with subsidence centered on the volcano in the time since the flows were emplaced. Our preliminary geophysical modeling used a range of load volumes, load radii, and lithospheric thicknesses to identify the scenario required to best restore modern topography to match the paleo-topography present when the lava flows were emplaced (i.e. 'uplift' Olympus Mons until the lava flows on the surrounding plains are restored to a downhill direction). The results show that lithospheric subsidence of about 1.2 km due to the magmatic addition of 3.8x10^5 km^3 best fits the observed topographic changes. Load center heights of 1 to 8 km were considered, with best fits generally in the 3-5 km range. Best-fit elastic lithosphere thickness (Te) values were generally 100 km or greater, consistent with estimates for Te from loading models [1,2] and gravity-topography relationships [3,4,5]. Our new crater size-density measurements of the plains in the study area show that the observed subsidence occurred within the past 229 × 26 my. Previous crater counts for Olympus Mons calderas and lower flank flows [6] reveal volcanic activity clustered around 100

  12. A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

    S. Bachmair

    2015-09-01

    . The predictions also provided insights into the EDII, in particular highlighting drought events where missing impact reports reflect a lack of recording rather than true absence of impacts. Overall, the presented quantitative framework proved to be a useful tool for evaluating drought indicators, and to model impact occurrence. In summary, this study demonstrates the information gain for drought monitoring and early warning through impact data collection and analysis, and highlights the important role that quantitative analysis with impacts data can have in providing "ground truth" for drought indicators alongside more traditional stakeholder-led approaches.

  13. A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

    Bachmair, S.; Svensson, C.; Hannaford, J.; Barker, L. J.; Stahl, K.

    2016-07-01

    coverage. The predictions also provided insights into the EDII, in particular highlighting drought events where missing impact reports may reflect a lack of recording rather than true absence of impacts. Overall, the presented quantitative framework proved to be a useful tool for evaluating drought indicators, and to model impact occurrence. In summary, this study demonstrates the information gain for drought monitoring and early warning through impact data collection and analysis. It highlights the important role that quantitative analysis with impact data can have in providing "ground truth" for drought indicators, alongside more traditional stakeholder-led approaches.

  14. A quantitative analysis to objectively appraise drought indicators and model drought impacts

    Bachmair, S.; Svensson, C.; Hannaford, J.; Barker, L. J.; Stahl, K.

    2015-09-01

    also provided insights into the EDII, in particular highlighting drought events where missing impact reports reflect a lack of recording rather than true absence of impacts. Overall, the presented quantitative framework proved to be a useful tool for evaluating drought indicators, and to model impact occurrence. In summary, this study demonstrates the information gain for drought monitoring and early warning through impact data collection and analysis, and highlights the important role that quantitative analysis with impacts data can have in providing "ground truth" for drought indicators alongside more traditional stakeholder-led approaches.

  15. Establishing an Integration-Energy-Practice Model for Improving Energy Performance Indicators in ISO 50001 Energy Management Systems

    Tsung-Yung Chiu

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Global energy sources are gradually becoming scarce and prices are continually rising. Governments and businesses in various countries are actively developing technologies for energy management and developing new sources of energy. On 15 June 2011, the International Organization for Standardization (ISO announced the ISO 50001 standard for energy management systems. Organizations and enterprises are confronted with challenges associated with enhancing energy performance indicators, continuing to improve energy consumption efficiency, and managing third-party international certifications. This study conducted cases studies of businesses that have introduced an ISO 50001 energy management system by using an integration-energy-practice model to improve energy performance indicators and to complete the international auditing and certification procedures for ISO 50001 energy management systems. Based on case study results, the achievement rates for annual energy performance indicators increased, thereby enhancing the energy intensity efficiency. Establishing an integration-energy-practice model for introducing an ISO 50001 energy management system can efficiently meet demands for energy performance indicators and pass the international certification for ISO 50001 energy management systems. The proposed model efficiently provides enterprises with methods for developing sustainable energy management. It integrates internal and external technical resources to establish energy technology think tanks, for promoting successful technology and experiences to various sectors, thereby allowing enterprises to integrate energy management, increase energy efficiency, and meet the ISO 50001 international standard for energy management systems.

  16. Models for the interpretation of CaT and the blue Spectral Indices in Elliptical Nuclei

    M. Molla; Garcia-Vargas, M. L.

    2000-01-01

    We present a grid of theoretical models where the calculation of absorption line spectral indices in both the blue and red wavelength ranges is done with the same evolutionary synthesis code. We have computed some of these indices: CaT, NaI, MgI in the near infrared and Mgb, Mg2, Fe52, Fe53, NaD and Hbeta, in the blue-visible range, for Single Stellar Population (SSP) of 6 different metallicities, (Z=0.0004,0.001, 0.004, 0.008, 0.02 and 0.05), and ages from 4 Myr to 20 Gyr. From the compariso...

  17. Links between circulation indices and precipitation in the Mediterranean in an ensemble of regional climate models

    Beranová, Romana; Kyselý, Jan

    2016-02-01

    Spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Mediterranean is related to atmospheric circulation patterns such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), the Mediterranean Oscillation (MO) and the Western Mediterranean Oscillation (WeMO). This study examines ability of an ensemble of 12 regional climate model (RCM) simulations to reproduce observed links between these circulation indices and precipitation, as well as how these links may change in the late twenty-first century. We focus on the winter season and differences in precipitation amounts on the highest and lowest 25 % of days according to a given index. The relationships are evaluated against the E-OBS data set for 1961-1990. The observed pattern of differences in precipitation between positive and negative phases is generally similar for MO and NAO, which relates to the high correlation between these indices. Most regional climate models (RCMs) simulate links between the circulation indices and precipitation over most of the Mediterranean area reasonably well, especially for the MO and WeMO indices. The RCM with the largest deficiencies in reproducing the links is HadRM for all indices. The spatial patterns of differences in daily precipitation under positive and negative phases of the circulation indices for the future scenario (2070-2099) are similar to those for the control climate for all indices. This suggests that NAO, MO and WeMO are likely to play similar roles in affecting precipitation in the Mediterranean also in the future. However, increased NAO and decreased WeMO index, projected in most examined RCMs for the late twenty-first century in winter, may affect overall precipitation patterns.

  18. Applying a Multiple Group Causal Indicator Modeling Framework to the Reading Comprehension Skills of Third, Seventh, and Tenth Grade Students

    Tighe, Elizabeth L.; Wagner, Richard K.; Schatschneider, Christopher

    2015-01-01

    This study demonstrates the utility of applying a causal indicator modeling framework to investigate important predictors of reading comprehension in third, seventh, and tenth grade students. The results indicated that a 4-factor multiple indicator multiple indicator cause (MIMIC) model of reading comprehension provided adequate fit at each grade…

  19. Activation analysis of hair as an indicator of contamination of man by environmental trace element pollutants

    The burning of fossil fuel, discharges from metallurgical and chemical plants, the wide use of chemicals, and other human activities, result in releasing into the biosphere large quantities of elements which are found in relatively low concentrations in the human organism. The pollution of the biosphere by such trace elements, and in particular heavy metals, has reached such proportions that on the scale of significance of the factors causing the 'stressed' state of the environment of heavy metals occupy the second place and, according to forecasts, may in the future move on to the first. In the problem of pollution of the biosphere, man himself undoubtedly occupies the central position as a target. The pollution of air, soil and water, the contamination of micro-organisms, plants and animals are certainly growing into a serious threat and leading to heavy losses. However, it would be a real disaster if man himself became contaminated to levels giving rise to large scale harmful somatic or genetic effects. It is therefore an urgent problem today to determine the initial levels of trace elements in man and the extent of his contamination in areas where these elements are expected to show anomalous concentrations. Attention should be paid in the first place to those trace elements which probably play no physiological role, are particularly abundant in the environment, and have high toxicity (arsenic, mercury, lead, cadmium, etc.). Moreover, it should be born in mind that in anomalously high concentrations even the physiologically necessary trace elements (copper, zinc, manganese, fluorine, etc.) cause harmful effects. This paper justifies the use of hair samples as a biological indicator of environmental pollutants from physiological and morphological aspect and recommends on sample preparation and analysis methods

  20. A growth-rate indicator for Compton-thick active galactic nuclei

    Brightman, M; Ballantyne, D R; Baloković, M; Brandt, W N; Chen, C -T; Comastri, A; Farrah, D; Gandhi, P; Harrison, F A; Ricci, C; Stern, D; Walton, D J

    2016-01-01

    Due to their heavily obscured central engines, the growth rate of Compton-thick (CT) active galactic nuclei (AGN) is difficult to measure. A statistically significant correlation between the Eddington ratio, {\\lambda}$_{Edd}$, and the X-ray power-law index, {\\Gamma}, observed in unobscured AGN offers an estimate of their growth rate from X-ray spectroscopy (albeit with large scatter). However, since X-rays undergo reprocessing by Compton scattering and photoelectric absorption when the line-of-sight to the central engine is heavily obscured, the recovery of the intrinsic {\\Gamma} is challenging. Here we study a sample of local, predominantly Compton-thick megamaser AGN, where the black hole mass, and thus Eddington luminosity, are well known. We compile results on X-ray spectral fitting of these sources with sensitive high-energy (E> 10 keV) NuSTAR data, where X-ray torus models which take into account the reprocessing effects have been used to recover the intrinsic {\\Gamma} values and X-ray luminosities, L$_...

  1. Forecast daily indices of solar activity, F10.7, using support vector regression method

    The 10.7 cm solar radio flux (F10.7), the value of the solar radio emission flux density at a wavelength of 10.7 cm, is a useful index of solar activity as a proxy for solar extreme ultraviolet radiation. It is meaningful and important to predict F10.7 values accurately for both long-term (months-years) and short-term (days) forecasting, which are often used as inputs in space weather models. This study applies a novel neural network technique, support vector regression (SVR), to forecasting daily values of F10.7. The aim of this study is to examine the feasibility of SVR in short-term F10.7 forecasting. The approach, based on SVR, reduces the dimension of feature space in the training process by using a kernel-based learning algorithm. Thus, the complexity of the calculation becomes lower and a small amount of training data will be sufficient. The time series of F10.7 from 2002 to 2006 are employed as the data sets. The performance of the approach is estimated by calculating the norm mean square error and mean absolute percentage error. It is shown that our approach can perform well by using fewer training data points than the traditional neural network. (research paper)

  2. Global patterns in ecological indicators of marine food webs: a modelling approach.

    Johanna Jacomina Heymans

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Ecological attributes estimated from food web models have the potential to be indicators of good environmental status given their capabilities to describe redundancy, food web changes, and sensitivity to fishing. They can be used as a baseline to show how they might be modified in the future with human impacts such as climate change, acidification, eutrophication, or overfishing. METHODOLOGY: In this study ecological network analysis indicators of 105 marine food web models were tested for variation with traits such as ecosystem type, latitude, ocean basin, depth, size, time period, and exploitation state, whilst also considering structural properties of the models such as number of linkages, number of living functional groups or total number of functional groups as covariate factors. PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Eight indicators were robust to model construction: relative ascendency; relative overhead; redundancy; total systems throughput (TST; primary production/TST; consumption/TST; export/TST; and total biomass of the community. Large-scale differences were seen in the ecosystems of the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, with the Western Atlantic being more complex with an increased ability to mitigate impacts, while the Eastern Atlantic showed lower internal complexity. In addition, the Eastern Pacific was less organised than the Eastern Atlantic although both of these systems had increased primary production as eastern boundary current systems. Differences by ecosystem type highlighted coral reefs as having the largest energy flow and total biomass per unit of surface, while lagoons, estuaries, and bays had lower transfer efficiencies and higher recycling. These differences prevailed over time, although some traits changed with fishing intensity. Keystone groups were mainly higher trophic level species with mostly top-down effects, while structural/dominant groups were mainly lower trophic level groups (benthic primary producers such as

  3. Analytic network process model for sustainable lean and green manufacturing performance indicator

    Aminuddin, Adam Shariff Adli; Nawawi, Mohd Kamal Mohd; Mohamed, Nik Mohd Zuki Nik

    2014-09-01

    Sustainable manufacturing is regarded as the most complex manufacturing paradigm to date as it holds the widest scope of requirements. In addition, its three major pillars of economic, environment and society though distinct, have some overlapping among each of its elements. Even though the concept of sustainability is not new, the development of the performance indicator still needs a lot of improvement due to its multifaceted nature, which requires integrated approach to solve the problem. This paper proposed the best combination of criteria en route a robust sustainable manufacturing performance indicator formation via Analytic Network Process (ANP). The integrated lean, green and sustainable ANP model can be used to comprehend the complex decision system of the sustainability assessment. The finding shows that green manufacturing is more sustainable than lean manufacturing. It also illustrates that procurement practice is the most important criteria in the sustainable manufacturing performance indicator.

  4. Hydrodynamic evaluation of a hydraulic clarifier through hydraulic behaviour indicators and simplified flow models

    Paola Patiño

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Hydrodynamic phenomena take place within water treatment plants associated with physical, operational and environmental factors which can affect the water quality. This study evaluated a hydraulic clarifier’s hydrodynamic pattern using sludge recirculation through continuous tracer test leading to determining hydraulic behaviour indicators and simplified flow models. The clarifier had dual flow with a predominantly complete mixture during the hours in which higher temperatures were reported for affluent water compared to those reported inside the reactor, causing the formation of density currents promoting mixing in the reactor and increased turbidity in the effluent. The hydraulic indicators and the Wolf-Resnick model had higher sensitivity to the influence of temperature on reactor hydrodynamics.

  5. Stellar population models of Lick indices with variable element abundance ratios

    Thomas, D; Bender, R; Thomas, Daniel; Maraston, Claudia

    2003-01-01

    We provide the whole set of Lick indices from CN1 to TiO2 of Simple Stellar Population models with, for the first time, variable element abundance ratios, [alpha/Fe]=0.0, 0.3, 0.5, [alpha/Ca]=-0.1, 0.0, 0.2, 0.5, and [alpha/N]=-0.5, 0.0. The models cover ages between 1 and 15 Gyr, metallicities between 1/200 and 3.5 solar. Our models are free from the intrinsic alpha/Fe bias that was imposed by the Milky Way template stars up to now, hence they reflect well-defined alpha/Fe ratios at all metallicities. The models are calibrated with Milky Way globular clusters for which metallicities and alpha/Fe ratios are known from independent spectroscopy of individual stars. The metallicities that we derive from the Lick indices Mgb and Fe5270 are in excellent agreement with the metallicity scale by Zinn & West (1984), and we show that the latter provides total metallicity rather than iron abundance. We can reproduce the relatively strong CN-absorption features CN1 and CN2 of galactic globular clusters with models in...

  6. Integration of vegetation indices into a water balance model to estimate evapotranspiration of wheat and corn

    F. L. M. Padilla; M. P. González-Dugo; P. Gavilán; J. Domínguez

    2011-01-01

    Vegetation indices (VIs) have been traditionally used for quantitative monitoring of vegetation. Remotely sensed radiometric measurements of visible and infrared solar energy, which is reflected or emitted by plant canopies, can be used to obtain rapid, non-destructive estimates of certain canopy attributes and parameters. One parameter of special interest for water management applications, is the crop coefficient employed by the FAO-56 model to derive actual crop evapotranspiration (ET). The...

  7. A multiple indicators multiple causes model of late-life depression in Latin American countries

    Brailean, Anamaria; Guerra, Mariella; Chua, Kia-Chong; Prince, Martin; Prina, Matthew A

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The Euro-D depression scale consists of symptom clusters that may be differentially related to demographic and cognitive characteristics in older adults. This hypothesis needs further investigation and the role of measurement bias on substantive conclusions remains to be established.METHOD: The study sample comprised 10,405 community-dwelling older adults from six Latin American countries. We applied a Multiple Indicators Multiple Causes (MIMIC) model for a concurrent investigatio...

  8. Hydrodynamic evaluation of a hydraulic clarifier through hydraulic behaviour indicators and simplified flow models

    Paola Patiño; Camilo Cruz; Patricia Torres; Santiago Laín

    2012-01-01

    Hydrodynamic phenomena take place within water treatment plants associated with physical, operational and environmental factors which can affect the water quality. This study evaluated a hydraulic clarifier’s hydrodynamic pattern using sludge recirculation through continuous tracer test leading to determining hydraulic behaviour indicators and simplified flow models. The clarifier had dual flow with a predominantly complete mixture during the hours in which higher temperatures were reported f...

  9. Integration of vegetation indices into a water balance model to estimate evapotranspiration of wheat and corn

    F. L. M. Padilla; M. P. González-Dugo; Gavilán, P.; Domínguez, J.

    2010-01-01

    Vegetation indices (VIs) have been traditionally used for quantitative monitoring of vegetation. Remotely sensed radiometric measurements of visible and infrared solar energy, which is reflected or emitted by plant canopies, can be used to obtain rapid, non-destructive estimates of certain canopy attributes and parameters. One parameter of special interest for water management applications, is the crop coefficient employed by the FAO-56 model to derive actual crop evapotranspiration (ET). The...

  10. Integration of vegetation indices into a water balance model to estimate evapotranspiration of wheat and corn

    F. L. M. Padilla; M. P. González-Dugo; Gavilán, P.; Domínguez, J.

    2011-01-01

    Vegetation indices (VIs) have been traditionally used for quantitative monitoring of vegetation. Remotely sensed radiometric measurements of visible and infrared solar energy, which is reflected or emitted by plant canopies, can be used to obtain rapid, non-destructive estimates of certain canopy attributes and parameters. One parameter of special interest for water management applications, is the crop coefficient employed by the FAO-56 model to derive actual crop evapotrans...

  11. Indication of the suitable model of a mechatronic system as an introduction to the synthesis task

    M. Płaczek

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: The identification of the optimal mathematical model that meets the assumed criteria is the main purpose of this paper, which is an introduction to the task of synthesis of one-dimensional vibrating mechatronic systems. Assumed criteria are to provide the accurate analysis of the system together with maximum simplification of used mathematical tools and minimize required amount of time. The correct description of a given system by its model during the design phase is a fundamental condition for proper operation of it. Therefore, the processes of modelling, testing and verification of used models were presented. On the basis of carry out analysis the optimal (in case of assumed criteria model was selected and it will be used to realize the task of synthesis in future works.Design/methodology/approach: A series of mathematical models with different simplifying assumptions was created. Using the created models and corrected approximate Galerkin method the dynamic characteristic of the considered system was designated. The analysis of an influence of parameters of the system’s components on obtained characteristic was conducted. The approximate method was verified to check its accuracy and decide if it can be used to analyse such kind of mechatronic systems.Findings: The main result of the work is an indication of the suitable mathematical model of the considered system.Research limitations/implications: Influence of temperature changes on the transducer’s properties was neglected in developed mathematical models. It will be considered in the future works.Practical implications: Presented method of mechatronic system’s analysis can be use in process of designing of technical devices where both, simply and reverse piezoelectric effects can be used.Originality/value: Development of the mathematical models in which the considered system is modelled as a combined beam.

  12. Correlation and Interaction Visualization of Altmetric Indicators Extracted From Scholarly Social Network Activities: Dimensions and Structure

    Liu, Chun Li; Xu, Yue Quan; Wu, Hui; Chen, Si Si; Guo, Ji Jun

    2013-01-01

    Background Citation counts for peer-reviewed articles and the impact factor of journals have long been indicators of article importance or quality. In the Web 2.0 era, growing numbers of scholars are using scholarly social network tools to communicate scientific ideas with colleagues, thereby making traditional indicators less sufficient, immediate, and comprehensive. In these new situations, the altmetric indicators offer alternative measures that reflect the multidimensional nature of schol...

  13. Objective assessment and modification of physical activity and health indices in adolescent females

    2010-01-01

    non-peer-reviewed The following literature review describes the benefits of being physically active in childhood and adulthood and also the dangers that accompany inactivity. The benefits of being physically activity as a young person can affect future health and future physical activity levels and this link will be considered as a rationale for promoting physical activity in adolescence. The negative consequences of obesity in childhood and adulthood are also considered. The relationship ...

  14. Modeling Workflow Using UML Activity Diagram

    Wei Yinxing(韦银星); Zhang Shensheng

    2004-01-01

    An enterprise can improve its adaptability in the changing market by means of workflow technologies. In the build time, the main function of Workflow Management System (WFMS) is to model business process. Workflow model is an abstract representation of the real-world business process. The Unified Modeling Language (UML) activity diagram is an important visual process modeling language proposed by the Object Management Group (OMG). The novelty of this paper is representing workflow model by means of UML activity diagram. A translation from UML activity diagram to π-calculus is established. Using π-calculus, the deadlock property of workflow is analyzed.

  15. Modeling Students' Units Coordinating Activity

    Boyce, Steven James

    2014-01-01

    Primarily via constructivist teaching experiment methodology, units coordination (Steffe, 1992) has emerged as a useful construct for modeling students' psychological constructions pertaining to several mathematical domains, including counting sequences, whole number multiplicative conceptions, and fractions schemes. I describe how consideration of units coordination as a Piagetian (1970b) structure is useful for modeling units coordination across contexts. In this study, I extend teaching ...

  16. Meteor-Shower on Mars Indicates Cometary Activity Far Away From the Sun

    Sekhar, Aswin; ASHER, DAVID

    2015-08-01

    Introduction: The close encounter of Comet C/2013 A1 (Siding Spring) with Mars on 2014 Oct 19 at 1830h (UT) generated a lot of interest and modelling work [1] [2] [3] in the solar system community. A recent (on 2014 Nov 7) press release from NASA implied that a meteor shower was detected on Mars by their space instruments some hours after the comet-Mars close encounter. Various work [4] [5] [6] has suggested that very specific meteoroid sizes and ejection conditions may be required to produce meteor phenomena at Mars at the given times.Stream dynamics: Meteoroid stream modelling and their orbital geometry calculations have gained high precision over the years. In this work, we compute in detail the structure of the cloud of meteoroids released by C/2013 A1, showing its dependence on heliocentric ejection distances, 3-dimensional ejection velocities, and particle sizes. Our calculations using numerical integrator MERCURY, [7], incorporating radiation pressure, [8], show that ejection of particles at large heliocentric distances (about 7 au to 13 au) from C/2013 A1 could lead to evolution of a dense meteoroid cloud which intersects Mars a few hours after the comet-Mars close encounter. Hence this detection of a meteor shower on Mars by space instruments is an indirect confirmation of cometary activity at large distances which has rarely been observed directly by telescopes so far. Furthermore it shows that comprehensive threat estimation needs to be done for satellites orbiting the Earth when dynamically new comets come very close to the Earth in future.References:[1] Vaubaillon J., Macquet L., Soja R. 2014. MNRAS. 439: 3294.[2] Moorhead A. V., Wiegert P. A., Cooke W. J. 2014. Icarus. 231:13.[3] Ye Q.-Z., Hui M.-T., 2014, ApJ, 787: 115.[4] Farnocchia D. et al. 2014. ApJL. 790: 114.[5] Kelley M. S. P. et al. 2014, ApJL, 792: 16.[6] Tricarico P. et al., 2014, ApJL, 787: 35.[7] Chambers J. E. 1999. MNRAS. 304: 793.[8] Burns J. A, Lamy P. L., Soter S. 1979. Icarus. 40: 1.

  17. Modeling Drought Impact Occurrence Based on Climatological Drought Indices for Europe

    Stagge, J. H.; Kohn, I.; Tallaksen, L. M.; Stahl, K.

    2014-12-01

    ) and seasonal (6-12 month) anomalies. A mean of 47.0% (22.4-71.6%) impact deviance is explained by the resulting models, highlighting the feasibility of using such statistical techniques and drought impact databases to model drought impact likelihood based on relatively easily calculated meteorological drought indices.

  18. Comparative analysis of fuzzy model and numerical model for indicators in monitoring and strategic planning of nuclear power plants

    The use of performance and safety indicators in the monitoring of nuclear power plants is a reality. Recently, after the publication of the General Guide of Indicators by International Agency of Atomic Energy (IAEA), which suggests actions, conditions and procedures in order to reach the safety requirements, as well as to assure a high performance rate, new works are being done based on this philosophy. In a previous work, an intelligent system (Fuzzy Model) was developed, which would be able to infer about a generic structure of indicators, in order to establish the representative status of the nuclear power plant Angra 2. In this work a new implementation was developed, an intelligent system (Numerical Model), which would be able to infer about the same generic structure of indicators, with the same objective, the determination of status of the Angra 2. The objective of this work is a comparison between the results gotten by the Numerical Model and the Fuzzy Model, emphasizing the advantages and disadvantages of each implementation aiming to improve the performance of this tool of monitoring, analysis and management. (author)

  19. Studies of seaweeds as indicators of toxic element pollution in Ghana using neutron activation analysis

    The concentrations of 25 elements namely: AI, As, Br, Ca, Cd, CI, Co, Cr, Cu, Fe, Hf, Hg, I, K, La, Mg, Mn, Na, Ni, Sb, Sc, Sm, Sr, V and Zn in seven Rhodophyta (red), three Phaeophyta (brown) and five Chlorophyta (green) seaweed species from different areas along the coast of Ghana were determined by instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) and preconcentration NAA (PNAA). These species potentially could be used as biomonitors and bioremoval agents. The irradiations using thermal and epithermal neutrons were done using the Ghana Research Reactor-I (GHARR-I) facility at Ghana Atomic Energy Commission, Kwabenya and the Dalhousie University SLOWPOKE-2 Reactor (DUSR) facilities. Counting was done using both the conventional and anti-coincidence γ ray spectrometry. The PNAA method was developed for the simultaneous extraction of Cd, Cr, Hg, and Zn, as well as Sb and V individually from the seaweed samples. The PNAA method involved the use of a mixture of PAN and TAN chelating agents and PONPE-20 surfactant in cloud point extraction (CPE). The parameters affecting the CPE have been optimized. The recoveries under the optimum conditions of pH 3.7 for V, 6.4 for Sb, 8.6 for Cd, Cr, Hg, and Zn, [PAN/TAN] of 1x10-4M, [PONPE-20] of 0.1% (m/v), ionic strength 0.05 M KN03, and a temperature of 410C were generally >96%. The mean detection limits for Cd, Cr, Hg, Sb, V and Zn were 6.0, 3.6, 1.2, 2.8, 1.51 and 2.6 ng/g respectively. The CPE method developed was also used successfully to speciate As(III) and As(V) from the Sargassum vulgare, the seaweed. The maximum extraction of As(III) occurred at a pH of 6.7 and that of As(V) at pH of 3.8. The results indicated that As(III) and As(V) formed only 6.27% of the total arsenic concentration, while the other species of arsenic constitute 93.73%. The precision and accuracy of the INAA and PNAA methods developed were evaluated. Schewart control charts were constructed for internal quality assessment purposes. The results were

  20. Valuing Patents with Linear Regression : Identifying value indicators and using a linear regression model to value  patents

    Al-Khalaf, Adnan; Gustafsson, Steve Oskar

    2015-01-01

    This thesis consist of two parts. The first part of the thesis will conduct a multiple regression on a data-set obtained from the Ocean Tomo’s auction results between 2006 to 2008 with the purpose to identify key value indicators and investigate to what extent it is possible to predict the value of a patent. The final regression model consist of the following covariates Average number of citings per year, share of active family members, age of the patent, average invested USD per year, and ni...

  1. A hidden Markov model combined with climate indices for multidecadal streamflow simulation

    Bracken, C.; Rajagopalan, B.; Zagona, E.

    2014-10-01

    Hydroclimate time series often exhibit very low year-to-year autocorrelation while showing prolonged wet and dry epochs reminiscent of regime-shifting behavior. Traditional stochastic time series models cannot capture the regime-shifting features thereby misrepresenting the risk of prolonged wet and dry periods, consequently impacting management and planning efforts. Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) annual flow series highlights this clearly. To address this, a simulation framework is developed using a hidden Markov (HM) model in combination with large-scale climate indices that drive multidecadal variability. We demonstrate this on the UCRB flows and show that the simulations are able to capture the regime features by reproducing the multidecadal spectral features present in the data where a basic HM model without climate information cannot.

  2. Using globally available soil moisture indicators for flood modelling in Mediterranean catchments

    C. Massari

    2013-08-01

    Full Text Available Floods are one of the most dangerous natural hazards in Mediterranean regions. Flood forecasting tools and early warning systems can be very beneficial to reduce flood risk. Event-based rainfall runoff models are frequently employed for operational flood forecasting purposes because of their simplicity and the reduced number of parameters involved with respect to continuous models. However, the advantages that are related with the reduced parameterization face against the need for a correct initialization of the model, especially in areas affected by strong climate seasonality. On the other hand, the use of continuous models may be very problematic in poorly gauged areas. This paper introduces a simplified continuous rainfall-runoff model, which uses globally available soil moisture retrievals to identify the initial wetness condition of the catchment, and, only event rainfall data to simulate discharge hydrographs. The model calibration involves only 3 parameters. For soil moisture, beside in situ and modelled data, satellite products from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT and the Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for Earth observation (AMSR-E sensors are employed. Additionally, the ERA-LAND reanalysis soil moisture product of the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF is used. The model was tested in the small catchment of Rafina, 109 km2 located in the Eastern Attica region, Greece. Specifically, fifteen rainfall-runoff events were modelled by considering different configurations for the initial soil moisture conditions. Comparing the performance of the different soil moisture products, it was found that all global indicators allow reproducing fairly well the selected flood events providing much better results than the situation where a constant initial condition is provided. ERA-LAND slightly outperforms the satellite soil moisture products and in general, all the indicators give the same performance obtained by

  3. Partial least squares for efficient models of fecal indicator bacteria on Great Lakes beaches

    Brooks, Wesley R.; Fienen, Michael J.; Corsi, Steven R.

    2013-01-01

    At public beaches, it is now common to mitigate the impact of water-borne pathogens by posting a swimmer's advisory when the concentration of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) exceeds an action threshold. Since culturing the bacteria delays public notification when dangerous conditions exist, regression models are sometimes used to predict the FIB concentration based on readily-available environmental measurements. It is hard to know which environmental parameters are relevant to predicting FIB concentration, and the parameters are usually correlated, which can hurt the predictive power of a regression model. Here the method of partial least squares (PLS) is introduced to automate the regression modeling process. Model selection is reduced to the process of setting a tuning parameter to control the decision threshold that separates predicted exceedances of the standard from predicted non-exceedances. The method is validated by application to four Great Lakes beaches during the summer of 2010. Performance of the PLS models compares favorably to that of the existing state-of-the-art regression models at these four sites.

  4. Useful model organisms, indicators, or both? Ground beetles (Coleoptera, Carabidae reflecting environmental conditions

    Matti Koivula

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Classic studies have successfully linked single-species abundances, life-history traits, assemblage structures and biomass of carabid beetles to past and present, human-caused environmental impacts and variation in ‘natural’ conditions. This evidence has led many to suggest carabids to function as ‘indicators’ − a term that bears multiple meanings. Here, a conservation-oriented definition for an indicator is used, carabid indicator potential from seven views is evaluated, and ways to proceed in indicator research are discussed. (1 Carabid species richness poorly indicates the richness and abundance of other taxa, which underlines the importance of using multiple taxa in environmental assessments. The ability of assemblage indices and specialist or functional-group abundances to reflect rare species and habitats should be examined in detail. (2 Experimental evidence suggests that carabids may potentially serve as keystone indicators. (3 Carabids are sensitive to human-altered abiotic conditions, such as pesticide use in agro-ecosystems and heavy metal contamination of soils. Carabids might thus reflect ecological sustainability and ‘ecosystem health’. (4 Carabid assemblages host abundant species characteristic of particular habitat types or successional stages, which makes them promising dominance indicators. (5 Carabids reflect variation in ‘natural’ conditions, but vegetation and structural features are more commonly adopted as condition indicators. Carabids nevertheless provide yet another, equally accurate, view on the structure of the environment. (6 Carabids may function as early-warning signalers, as suggested by recent studies linking climate and carabid distributions. (7 Carabids reflect natural and human-caused disturbances and management, but the usefulness of these responses for conservation purposes requires further research. In summary, European carabids appear useful model organisms and possibly indicators because

  5. Indicators of competitive activity of the oarswomen on kayaks at the Olympic distance.

    Chychkan O.A.; Chehonyuk O.

    2010-01-01

    The frame of competitive activity of sportsmen on kayaks different sports qualification on a distance of 500 meters is construed. 20 sportsmen of different sports qualification have been inspected. During competitions were fixed: number paddle boat and a road clearance time of a distance. It is exhibited variances in a level of competitive activity. Competitive activity expediently to value on parameters of a road clearance time of a distance, an amount paddle boat on a distance, roads of a b...

  6. Indications of low macrobenthic activity in the deep sediments of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

    Basso, D; Thomson, J; C. Corselli

    2004-01-01

    The fluxes and budget of organic matter from the oligotrophic surface waters of the eastern Mediterranean to the deep waters are poorly known, and little information is available on past and present macrobenthic activity on the sea floor. Evidence of macrobenthic activity can be direct, through recovery of living organisms or their autochthonous skeletal remains, or indirect, through bioturbation and trace fossils. The evidence of biological activity in deep eastern Mediterranean sediments ha...

  7. On the use of ionospheric scintillation indices as input to receiver tracking models

    Aquino, Marcio; Andreotti, Marcus; Dodson, Alan; Strangeways, Hal

    Ionospheric scintillation has its highest occurrence in equatorial and auroral regions (including northerly parts of Europe), and in the polar caps. Several research groups, including the Institute of Engineering Surveying and Space Geodesy (IESSG), at the University of Nottingham and the Insitute of Integrated Information Systems (I3S), at the University of Leeds, have been involved with ionospheric scintillation research and its impact on users of Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Such effects may be severe, from degradation of measurement accuracy to complete loss of lock on the satellite signal. The main motivation of this paper is to exploit further a comprehensive archive of scintillation data gathered by the IESSG during the last high of the solar cycle, in order to assess the probability of GNSS receiver tracking failures occurring due to ionospheric scintillation. This archive contains GPS ionospheric scintillation data gathered simultaneously with four GSV4004 receivers (GPS Silicon Valley) in the UK and Norway, between June 2001 and December 2003, at geographic latitudes varying from 53 °N to 71 °N. However, the scintillation data that forms this archive is given by the indices S4 and σϕ (in particular the latter's 60 s version, herein termed Phi60), which are only average values measured at the input of the receiver Phase Locked Loop (PLL). As such they do not provide sufficient information regarding the instantaneous values of phase and amplitude fluctuations that will affect the GNSS receiver performance. Although these indices can give an indication of forthcoming problems, receiver tracking models must also be considered in order to accurately model the influence of scintillation on receiver performance and on positioning accuracy. It is the tracking error at the output of the PLL that determines the accuracy of the range measurements which the receiver uses to compute position. This paper presents a strategy devised to enable the

  8. Multiple Episodes of Recent Gully Activity Indicated by Gully Fan Stratigraphy in Eastern Promethei Terra, Mars.

    Schon, S.; Head, J.; Fassett, C.

    2008-09-01

    outer crater (0.121 compared to 0.073), consistent with young Martian craters [17]. Both the outer and inner craters have classically-defined gullies, preferentially developed on their pole-facing walls. Polygons are observed in gully alcoves of the outer crater, but not in alcoves of the inner crater, implying a difference in substrate or thermal cycling time [18]. The outer crater is floored by ejecta from the inner crater and mantling deposits. There is no evidence of an underlying concentric crater fill deposit or other altered fill unit typical of older Amazonian altered craters [19]. The inner crater is floored by unconsolidated sediment and contains a small collection of dunes. No evidence of pits, hummocky texture or other sublimation features are observed indicating that the crater interior is not a periglacial terrain. We interpret the inner crater as younger than the most recent episode of mantling deposition (~0.4Ma) [20] due to the exposed spur and talus slope development on the equator-facing wall, a slope and orientation that preferentially preserves smooth mantle texture in this latitude regime [21]. One superposed crater (~45 mdiameter) is observed in HiRISE coverage. Using the technique of Hartmann and Quantin-Nataf [22], who dated Gratteri crater by counting small craters superposed on the floor, the inner crater is on the order of 100Ka. Based upon these observations and the relative proximity of secondary craters to the outer crater rim (making it unlikely they originated from the outer crater), the 7 km-diameter inner crater is the likely source of the rays and secondary craters of interest on the gully fan lobe. Acknowledgments: Special thanks to the Mars Recognisance Orbiter and HiRISE teams as well as the Odyssey and THEMIS teams. This research was funded by NASA. Conclusions This study has identified a gully system fan in Eastern Promethei Terra with morphology requiring multiple periods of activity for its construction. At least one lobe of

  9. Discursive Positionings and Emotions in Modelling Activities

    Daher, Wajeeh

    2015-01-01

    Mathematical modelling is suggested as an activity through which students engage in meaningful mathematics. In the current research, the modelling activity of a group of four seventh-grade students was analysed using the discursive analysis framework. The research findings show that the positionings and emotions of the group members during their…

  10. Modeling of active beam units with Modelica

    Maccarini, Alessandro; Hultmark, Göran; Vorre, Anders; Afshari, Alireza; Bergsøe, Niels Christian

    2015-01-01

    This paper proposes an active beam model suitable for building energy simulations with the programming language Modelica. The model encapsulates empirical equations derived by a novel active beam terminal unit that operates with low-temperature heating and high-temperature cooling systems...